2011 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New York Giants

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2007

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2007

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

2.90 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.10 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Indianapolis Colts

3.43 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.43 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	13	3	.812	-	513	342	+171	11.28	+1.72
2	New York Jets	8	8	.500	5	377	363	+14	9.17	-1.17
3	Miami Dolphins	6	10	.375	7	329	313	+16	6.93	-0.93
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	7	372	434	-62	7.04	-1.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	12	4	.750	-	378	266	+112	10.93	+1.07
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	12	4	.750	-	325	227	+98	10.46	+1.54
3	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	344	323	+21	8.49	+0.51
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	8	218	307	-89	5.75	-1.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	6	.625	-	381	278	+103	10.00	0.00
2	Tennessee Titans	9	7	.562	1	325	317	+8	8.46	+0.54
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	5	243	329	-86	6.26	-1.26
4	Indianapolis Colts	2	14	.125	8	243	430	-187	5.43	-3.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	8	8	.500	-	309	390	-81	6.65	+1.35
2	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	-	406	377	+29	8.57	-0.57
3	Oakland Raiders	8	8	.500	-	359	433	-74	7.50	+0.50
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	1	212	338	-126	5.98	+1.02

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	9	7	.562	-	394	400	-6	8.04	+0.96
2	Philadelphia Eagles	8	8	.500	1	396	328	+68	8.28	-0.28
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	8	.500	1	369	347	+22	8.74	-0.74
4	Washington Redskins	5	11	.312	4	288	367	-79	6.57	-1.57

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	15	1	.938	-	560	359	+201	12.64	+2.36
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	10	6	.625	5	474	387	+87	8.47	+1.53
3	Chicago Bears	8	8	.500	7	353	341	+12	8.80	-0.80
4	Minnesota Vikings	3	13	.188	12	340	449	-109	5.80	-2.80

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	-	547	339	+208	10.44	+2.56
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	402	350	+52	9.18	+0.82
3	Carolina Panthers	6	10	.375	7	406	429	-23	5.94	+0.06
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	12	.250	9	287	494	-207	6.41	-2.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	-	380	229	+151	10.10	+2.90
2	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	5	312	348	-36	6.22	+1.78
3	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	.438	6	321	315	+6	6.97	+0.03
4	St. Louis Rams	2	14	.125	11	193	407	-214	4.50	-2.50

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 31

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 7

Denver Broncos 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Jan 8

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 45

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 14

Baltimore Ravens 20

Houston Texans 13

Jan 15

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 23

Baltimore Ravens 20

Jan 22

NFC

Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints 45

Detroit Lions 28

Jan 7

New York Giants 24

Atlanta Falcons 2

Jan 8

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 36

New Orleans Saints 32

Jan 14

New York Giants 37

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 15

Conference Championship

New York Giants 20

San Francisco 49ers 17

Jan 22

Super Bowl

New York Giants 21

New England Patriots 17

Feb 5

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1768	15	12.64	+2.36	97.99%	5	10	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1755	13	11.28	+1.72	90.69%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1732	13	10.44	+2.56	96.09%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1677	13	10.10	+2.90	97.45%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1662	12	10.46	+1.54	87.41%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1652	12	10.93	+1.07	81.10%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1611	8	8.28	-0.28	54.88%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1585	10	9.18	+0.82	76.42%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1584	10	10.00	0.00	60.33%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1581	10	8.47	+1.53	86.14%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1560	8	8.57	-0.57	48.44%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1533	9	8.04	+0.96	78.81%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1519	9	8.49	+0.51	70.21%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1506	6	6.93	-0.93	41.58%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1506	7	6.97	+0.03	61.85%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1495	8	8.80	-0.80	43.68%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1482	8	9.17	-1.17	36.26%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1474	9	8.46	+0.54	70.70%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1464	8	8.74	-0.74	45.15%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1461	6	5.94	+0.06	63.02%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1459	8	6.22	+1.78	89.13%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1438	8	7.50	+0.50	70.50%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1437	7	5.98	+1.02	80.39%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1410	8	6.65	+1.35	83.66%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1395	6	7.04	-1.04	39.60%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1375	5	6.26	-1.26	34.75%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1361	5	6.57	-1.57	28.76%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1354	3	5.80	-2.80	10.45%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1351	4	5.75	-1.75	24.90%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1309	2	5.43	-3.43	4.32%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1258	4	6.41	-2.41	15.31%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1247	2	4.50	-2.50	11.77%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	-
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	-	-	-
New York Jets	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	-

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (3.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.9 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	-
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-
Oakland Raiders	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New York Giants	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	-	1-3 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	-	3-1 (3.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	-	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	-	-	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	-	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.39%	0.39%	0.78%	1.17%	0.98%	—	0.39%	4.10%
7–13	0.39%	2.73%	4.49%	2.73%	2.73%	2.34%	0.78%	16.21%
14–20	0.78%	4.49%	6.25%	9.38%	3.91%	1.76%	1.17%	27.73%
21–27	1.17%	2.73%	9.38%	5.47%	4.30%	1.56%	0.78%	25.39%
28–34	0.98%	2.73%	3.91%	4.30%	1.95%	0.78%	0.20%	14.84%
35–41	—	2.34%	1.76%	1.56%	0.78%	0.78%	0.59%	7.81%
42+	0.39%	0.78%	1.17%	0.78%	0.20%	0.59%	—	3.91%
Total	4.10%	16.21%	27.73%	25.39%	14.84%	7.81%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.18	22.18	+0.00
SD	10.21	10.21	15.54
CV	0.46	0.46	—
Max	62	62	+55
Min	0	0	-55

Games Played: 256

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	21.75	-2.25
SD	6.14	6.84	8.74
CV	0.32	0.31	—
Max	28	34	+7
Min	7	13	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.12	21.88	+3.25
SD	10.46	9.09	15.04
CV	0.42	0.42	—
Max	45	45	+27
Min	10	7	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.62	16.62	+7.00
SD	8.71	8.22	13.40
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	37	34	+30
Min	7	6	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	27.12	-3.88
SD	11.16	12.56	20.29
CV	0.48	0.46	—
Max	41	49	+34
Min	7	0	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	43.75%	—	12.50%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.38	26.81	-1.44
SD	10.41	10.67	16.24
CV	0.41	0.40	—
Max	48	49	+32
Min	3	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	37.50%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	21.31	+0.75
SD	10.51	9.03	14.90
CV	0.48	0.42	—
Max	39	38	+29
Min	3	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	50.00%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	20.19	+1.31
SD	7.12	6.32	11.25
CV	0.33	0.31	—
Max	34	35	+22
Min	7	12	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.62	19.19	-5.56
SD	5.71	7.49	7.66
CV	0.42	0.39	—
Max	27	31	+8
Min	3	3	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.06	21.69	+1.38
SD	10.34	9.19	15.75
CV	0.45	0.42	—
Max	44	37	+37
Min	7	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.31	24.38	-5.06
SD	8.72	13.55	13.79
CV	0.45	0.56	—
Max	38	49	+14
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.62	24.19	+5.44
SD	12.08	11.02	18.27
CV	0.41	0.46	—
Max	49	45	+45
Min	13	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	37.50%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	35.00	22.44	+12.56
SD	9.98	10.77	11.03
CV	0.29	0.48	—
Max	49	41	+38
Min	14	3	-5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	17.38	+6.44
SD	8.60	9.41	14.63
CV	0.36	0.54	—
Max	41	40	+34
Min	13	7	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	—	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	26.88	-11.69
SD	7.19	11.02	15.09
CV	0.47	0.41	—
Max	27	62	+14
Min	3	13	-55

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	20.56	-5.38
SD	8.02	10.58	14.60
CV	0.53	0.51	—
Max	41	41	+27
Min	3	3	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.25	21.12	-7.88
SD	8.55	13.96	19.44
CV	0.65	0.66	—
Max	28	48	+28
Min	3	0	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	37.50%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.56	19.56	+1.00
SD	8.49	8.52	14.32
CV	0.41	0.44	—
Max	35	38	+28
Min	6	3	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	28.06	-6.81
SD	8.14	9.32	14.12
CV	0.38	0.33	—
Max	34	45	+24
Min	7	10	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	—	25.00%	62.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.06	21.38	+10.69
SD	8.28	6.52	11.06
CV	0.26	0.31	—
Max	49	34	+31
Min	17	3	-8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	34.19	21.19	+13.00
SD	11.93	9.09	16.58
CV	0.35	0.43	—
Max	62	42	+55
Min	20	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.62	25.00	-0.38
SD	8.09	10.09	11.84
CV	0.33	0.40	—
Max	37	49	+17
Min	10	14	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.56	22.69	+0.88
SD	7.26	11.78	16.84
CV	0.31	0.52	—
Max	37	45	+29
Min	13	3	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	56.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.44	27.06	-4.62
SD	8.31	9.59	13.01
CV	0.37	0.35	—
Max	35	46	+10
Min	0	13	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.75	20.50	+4.25
SD	8.35	10.71	15.14
CV	0.34	0.52	—
Max	45	38	+27
Min	14	7	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	14.19	+6.12
SD	10.02	9.23	15.27
CV	0.49	0.65	—
Max	38	35	+28
Min	3	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.38	23.56	+1.81
SD	9.27	9.80	14.68
CV	0.37	0.42	—
Max	38	45	+27
Min	10	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.75	14.31	+9.44
SD	9.39	8.55	12.96
CV	0.40	0.60	—
Max	48	27	+45
Min	6	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	19.69	+0.38
SD	10.84	8.67	14.31
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	38	34	+24
Min	0	6	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	56.25%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.06	25.44	-13.38
SD	8.64	6.80	11.41
CV	0.72	0.27	—
Max	31	37	+10
Min	0	12	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	56.25%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	30.88	-12.94
SD	6.24	11.20	15.00
CV	0.35	0.36	—
Max	26	48	+7
Min	3	13	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	19.81	+0.50
SD	6.53	9.70	15.34
CV	0.32	0.49	—
Max	31	41	+27
Min	7	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	22.94	-4.94
SD	7.75	8.55	11.27
CV	0.43	0.37	—
Max	28	34	+14
Min	0	10	-24

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.59	+0.3
Allowed	0.31	-0.3
Differential	0.85	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	13	10.10	+2.90
2	New Orleans Saints	13	10.44	+2.56
3	Green Bay Packers	15	12.64	+2.36
4	Arizona Cardinals	8	6.22	+1.78
5	New England Patriots	13	11.28	+1.72

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	2	5.43	-3.43
2	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.80	-2.80
3	St. Louis Rams	2	4.50	-2.50
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	6.41	-2.41
5	Cleveland Browns	4	5.75	-1.75

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 182
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 25 – Nov 20	1 in 78
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Oct 2 – Oct 31	1 in 43
4	Green Bay Packers	13	Sep 8 – Dec 11	1 in 30
5	Arizona Cardinals	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	13	Sep 11 – Dec 11	1 in 549
2	Houston Texans	3	Dec 18 – Jan 1	1 in 162
3	Chicago Bears	5	Nov 27 – Dec 25	1 in 128
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	Oct 23 – Jan 1	1 in 77
5	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 23 – Nov 27	1 in 62

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	72.58%	20.96%	5.23%	1.23%
New York Jets	20.37%	46.11%	22.98%	10.54%
Miami Dolphins	3.58%	16.48%	36.12%	43.81%
Buffalo Bills	3.47%	16.45%	35.67%	44.41%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	49.71%	34.60%	13.96%	1.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	39.80%	39.69%	18.08%	2.43%
Cincinnati Bengals	10.02%	22.79%	51.76%	15.43%
Cleveland Browns	0.46%	2.92%	16.20%	80.41%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	65.94%	25.66%	6.84%	1.57%
Tennessee Titans	27.15%	46.51%	19.48%	6.85%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.80%	18.11%	42.91%	34.18%
Indianapolis Colts	2.11%	9.71%	30.77%	57.40%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	51.60%	26.61%	14.65%	7.13%
Oakland Raiders	26.32%	32.28%	25.18%	16.22%
Denver Broncos	14.04%	23.31%	31.00%	31.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.03%	17.80%	29.17%	45.00%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	38.07%	28.30%	21.06%	12.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.14%	28.81%	25.50%	16.56%
New York Giants	25.15%	28.09%	27.78%	18.98%
Washington Redskins	7.65%	14.80%	25.66%	51.89%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	87.96%	10.15%	1.74%	0.15%
Chicago Bears	6.30%	44.21%	37.24%	12.25%
Detroit Lions	5.39%	39.13%	41.63%	13.84%
Minnesota Vikings	0.35%	6.51%	19.39%	73.75%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	63.21%	28.16%	6.95%	1.67%
Atlanta Falcons	31.11%	48.44%	15.54%	4.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.54%	13.27%	42.06%	41.13%
Carolina Panthers	2.13%	10.13%	35.45%	52.30%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	81.43%	14.72%	3.36%	0.49%
Seattle Seahawks	12.11%	44.68%	30.61%	12.60%
Arizona Cardinals	5.66%	31.18%	40.25%	22.92%
St. Louis Rams	0.80%	9.43%	25.79%	63.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	29.68%	22.98%	15.12%	9.83%	7.18%	5.17%	3.61%	2.31%	1.59%	1.03%	0.65%	0.40%	0.26%	0.13%	0.05%	0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	24.27%	18.65%	13.92%	11.83%	9.19%	6.70%	4.89%	3.75%	2.63%	1.79%	1.08%	0.63%	0.34%	0.21%	0.09%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.97%	15.23%	13.74%	12.31%	10.53%	8.56%	6.52%	4.85%	3.65%	2.62%	1.75%	1.03%	0.61%	0.36%	0.18%	0.09%
Houston Texans	10.90%	14.44%	16.53%	13.33%	10.64%	8.77%	7.00%	5.71%	4.07%	2.91%	2.13%	1.50%	0.95%	0.57%	0.36%	0.18%
New York Jets	5.64%	7.66%	8.71%	9.90%	11.17%	11.02%	9.71%	8.23%	7.00%	5.89%	4.64%	3.55%	2.90%	2.04%	1.35%	0.60%
San Diego Chargers	3.08%	5.51%	8.21%	10.33%	10.47%	10.22%	9.44%	8.94%	7.59%	6.45%	5.68%	4.55%	3.66%	2.67%	1.96%	1.24%
Tennessee Titans	2.90%	5.04%	7.11%	8.04%	8.98%	9.75%	10.54%	9.99%	8.68%	7.11%	6.21%	5.16%	3.89%	2.89%	2.18%	1.53%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.10%	4.35%	5.62%	7.08%	8.19%	8.79%	9.46%	9.57%	9.90%	8.90%	7.45%	5.86%	4.42%	3.36%	2.40%	1.54%
Oakland Raiders	0.90%	2.11%	3.67%	5.33%	6.41%	7.28%	8.46%	9.36%	9.11%	8.74%	8.73%	8.06%	6.83%	5.93%	5.17%	3.93%
Buffalo Bills	0.50%	1.15%	1.75%	2.70%	3.86%	5.21%	6.05%	7.08%	8.46%	9.37%	9.43%	9.92%	9.86%	9.43%	8.75%	6.48%
Miami Dolphins	0.45%	1.07%	1.64%	2.50%	3.51%	5.12%	5.96%	6.82%	8.15%	9.61%	9.73%	9.75%	9.88%	9.73%	8.92%	7.17%
Denver Broncos	0.30%	0.84%	1.69%	2.80%	3.71%	4.52%	5.81%	6.81%	7.63%	8.65%	9.22%	9.72%	9.78%	9.67%	9.91%	8.93%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.17%	0.45%	1.03%	1.56%	2.25%	3.14%	4.31%	5.51%	6.65%	8.20%	9.90%	11.29%	10.98%	10.75%	11.29%	12.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.24%	0.68%	1.29%	1.98%	2.74%	3.88%	5.03%	6.21%	7.40%	8.63%	9.68%	11.28%	12.46%	13.61%	14.84%
Cleveland Browns	0.06%	0.16%	0.30%	0.59%	1.03%	1.57%	2.18%	3.17%	4.65%	5.88%	7.22%	9.40%	13.01%	15.67%	16.65%	18.47%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.13%	0.30%	0.57%	0.89%	1.45%	2.17%	2.87%	4.04%	5.44%	7.56%	9.51%	11.34%	14.13%	17.13%	22.43%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Green Bay Packers	63.13%	18.62%	8.36%	4.36%	2.45%	1.34%	0.80%	0.46%	0.23%	0.12%	0.08%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
New Orleans Saints	12.97%	22.20%	16.88%	12.57%	9.75%	7.55%	5.80%	3.94%	2.73%	2.06%	1.44%	0.96%	0.59%	0.33%	0.17%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	7.84%	19.27%	19.00%	15.55%	10.91%	7.71%	5.78%	4.48%	3.24%	2.19%	1.61%	1.06%	0.70%	0.37%	0.20%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	4.45%	9.78%	10.79%	11.07%	11.39%	11.52%	10.32%	8.15%	6.21%	4.86%	4.02%	2.94%	1.97%	1.38%	0.87%	0.29%
Dallas Cowboys	2.31%	7.44%	10.05%	10.72%	10.30%	9.76%	9.18%	8.02%	7.30%	6.61%	5.28%	4.39%	3.66%	2.63%	1.62%	0.73%
Chicago Bears	3.17%	5.07%	7.32%	9.86%	11.34%	10.79%	9.82%	9.25%	8.31%	7.03%	5.80%	4.39%	3.23%	2.43%	1.53%	0.67%
Detroit Lions	2.58%	4.07%	5.94%	8.27%	10.26%	10.08%	9.71%	9.73%	9.23%	8.09%	6.73%	5.29%	3.99%	3.03%	2.05%	0.95%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.52%	5.52%	7.91%	8.51%	8.86%	9.30%	9.21%	8.60%	8.28%	7.62%	6.73%	5.59%	4.77%	3.69%	2.48%	1.41%
New York Giants	1.19%	3.95%	6.25%	7.54%	8.26%	8.99%	9.46%	8.95%	8.70%	8.50%	7.46%	6.44%	5.55%	4.41%	2.82%	1.52%
Seattle Seahawks	0.31%	1.44%	2.50%	3.57%	4.53%	6.13%	7.62%	9.35%	9.50%	9.40%	9.29%	9.61%	8.69%	7.07%	6.04%	4.94%
Washington Redskins	0.12%	0.77%	1.67%	2.44%	3.27%	4.37%	5.31%	6.14%	7.29%	8.76%	9.20%	10.10%	11.62%	11.96%	9.83%	7.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.82%	1.21%	1.75%	2.69%	3.64%	4.57%	5.88%	7.40%	8.76%	10.26%	11.08%	10.81%	11.16%	11.51%	8.29%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.48%	0.98%	1.71%	2.45%	3.53%	5.13%	6.82%	7.79%	8.45%	9.62%	11.09%	10.93%	10.37%	9.81%	10.75%
Carolina Panthers	0.08%	0.35%	0.66%	1.07%	1.62%	2.50%	3.41%	4.53%	5.94%	7.64%	9.73%	10.47%	11.58%	13.40%	14.70%	12.33%
Minnesota Vikings	0.09%	0.18%	0.41%	0.84%	1.56%	2.23%	2.83%	4.00%	5.36%	6.43%	7.86%	9.72%	12.46%	15.12%	16.82%	14.09%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.17%	0.34%	0.57%	1.05%	1.71%	2.48%	3.47%	4.89%	6.84%	9.45%	12.64%	19.55%	36.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Green Bay Packers	41.58%	21.58%	10.87%	7.89%	4.71%	3.65%	2.51%	1.90%	1.34%	1.03%	0.71%	0.57%	0.45%	0.34%	0.25%	0.16%	0.12%	0.10%	0.08%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	<0.01%	-	-	-
New England Patriots	13.48%	15.51%	12.81%	11.08%	8.54%	6.98%	5.58%	4.60%	4.03%	3.15%	2.67%	2.23%	2.00%	1.44%	1.22%	0.93%	0.86%	0.66%	0.56%	0.39%	0.29%	0.27%	0.22%	0.14%	0.12%	0.08%	0.06%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	10.41%	13.02%	10.76%	9.39%	8.21%	6.91%	6.53%	5.20%	5.13%	3.95%	3.38%	2.87%	2.67%	2.23%	1.82%	1.44%	1.35%	1.08%	0.88%	0.69%	0.53%	0.45%	0.35%	0.23%	0.16%	0.14%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	7.13%	7.66%	9.96%	10.00%	8.13%	8.13%	6.55%	6.35%	4.98%	4.84%	3.94%	3.79%	2.90%	2.94%	2.17%	2.04%	1.48%	1.39%	1.10%	0.96%	0.72%	0.72%	0.58%	0.43%	0.33%	0.26%	0.19%	0.13%	0.10%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.15%	9.72%	8.88%	7.96%	8.05%	6.72%	6.77%	5.71%	5.67%	4.91%	4.23%	3.93%	3.44%	2.91%	2.33%	2.15%	1.79%	1.71%	1.33%	1.05%	0.80%	0.74%	0.54%	0.42%	0.31%	0.24%	0.21%	0.13%	0.09%	0.05%	0.05%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.31%	5.79%	8.41%	8.76%	8.40%	8.86%	6.92%	7.63%	5.34%	5.97%	4.18%	4.23%	3.07%	3.15%	2.49%	2.43%	1.60%	1.74%	1.27%	1.22%	0.92%	0.83%	0.57%	0.53%	0.40%	0.37%	0.24%	0.16%	0.11%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%
Houston Texans	4.10%	6.39%	7.73%	7.67%	8.42%	7.53%	7.07%	6.35%	5.59%	5.27%	4.66%	4.23%	3.69%	3.29%	2.86%	2.68%	2.14%	1.88%	1.61%	1.34%	1.20%	0.91%	0.80%	0.66%	0.52%	0.43%	0.33%	0.22%	0.21%	0.11%	0.08%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	1.93%	2.79%	4.01%	5.01%	5.14%	5.61%	5.47%	5.68%	5.52%	5.88%	5.45%	5.69%	4.97%	5.18%	4.20%	4.21%	3.19%	3.26%	2.67%	2.47%	2.09%	1.89%	1.63%	1.40%	1.19%	0.96%	0.75%	0.63%	0.47%	0.36%	0.21%	0.10%
New York Jets	1.85%	3.30%	4.05%	4.36%	4.91%	4.71%	5.53%	5.23%	5.74%	5.16%	5.62%	5.06%	5.25%	4.34%	4.25%	3.71%	3.82%	3.20%	3.15%	2.42%	2.54%	2.09%	1.88%	1.53%	1.52%	1.19%	1.12%	0.87%	0.65%	0.50%	0.30%	0.13%
Dallas Cowboys	1.02%	1.74%	2.90%	3.87%	4.16%	5.22%	4.77%	5.59%	4.88%	5.40%	4.97%	5.11%	4.45%	4.72%	4.31%	4.09%	3.81%	3.62%	3.54%	3.24%	2.79%	2.64%	2.32%	2.20%	1.91%	1.73%	1.35%	1.22%	0.91%	0.77%	0.45%	0.28%
Chicago Bears	1.32%	1.80%	2.59%	2.97%	3.69%	3.99%	4.84%	4.99%	5.54%	5.16%	5.35%	5.31%	5.15%	4.94%	4.67%	4.42%	4.45%	3.87%	3.53%	3.32%	3.04%	2.68%	2.33%	2.10%	1.79%	1.57%	1.33%	1.07%	0.86%	0.65%	0.45%	0.24%
San Diego Chargers	1.06%	1.84%	2.70%	2.96%	3.92%	4.36%	4.82%	5.17%	4.87%	5.54%	5.04%	5.30%	4.58%	4.75%	4.54%	4.49%	3.95%	3.74%	3.45%	3.25%	3.02%	2.67%	2.51%	2.23%	2.00%	1.66%	1.43%	1.23%	1.02%	0.88%	0.64%	0.37%
Tennessee Titans	0.86%	1.74%	2.44%	2.82%	3.51%	3.79%	4.25%	4.21%	4.62%	4.58%	4.86%	5.01%	4.96%	5.11%	4.64%	5.13%	4.11%	4.31%	3.60%	3.74%	3.23%	2.94%	2.64%	2.57%	2.14%	1.86%	1.62%	1.37%	1.14%	0.99%	0.75%	0.47%
Detroit Lions	0.97%	1.48%	1.95%	2.39%	2.93%	3.28%	3.97%	4.17%	5.09%	4.75%	4.97%	5.04%	5.15%	4.80%	4.76%	4.79%	4.60%	4.54%	4.01%	3.95%	3.34%	3.44%	2.71%	2.57%	2.16%	1.98%	1.65%	1.47%	1.08%	1.00%	0.56%	0.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.91%	1.80%	2.32%	2.48%	3.22%	3.10%	4.01%	3.75%	4.47%	4.23%	4.59%	4.45%	5.05%	4.68%	4.57%	4.52%	5.01%	4.73%	4.09%	4.08%	3.70%	3.55%	2.93%	2.63%	2.32%	2.02%	1.85%	1.43%	1.31%	0.98%	0.80%	0.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.68%	1.06%	2.14%	2.79%	3.38%	3.89%	3.92%	4.22%	4.40%	4.51%	4.75%	4.58%	4.67%	4.64%	4.59%	4.44%	4.20%	4.11%	3.81%	3.99%	3.42%	3.47%	2.85%	2.98%	2.36%	2.44%	1.88%	1.87%	1.33%	1.24%	0.85%	0.57%
New York Giants	0.47%	0.77%	1.55%	2.01%	2.60%	3.16%	3.33%	3.85%	3.88%	4.23%	4.45%	4.62%	4.55%	4.92%	4.73%	4.61%	4.51%	4.43%	4.26%	4.25%	3.88%	3.69%	3.43%	3.25%	2.94%	2.70%	2.25%	2.19%	1.59%	1.37%	0.94%	0.61%
Oakland Raiders	0.22%	0.56%	0.92%	1.20%	1.66%	2.06%	2.42%	2.86%	3.03%	3.31%	3.64%	3.73%	4.09%	4.32%	4.59%	4.72%	4.42%	4.58%	4.48%	4.57%	4.51%	4.28%	4.15%	3.96%	3.72%	3.35%	3.18%	2.89%	2.81%	2.39%	2.00%	1.38%
Seattle Seahawks	0.10%	0.23%	0.52%	0.70%	1.04%	1.26%	1.54%	1.76%	2.06%	2.46%	2.76%	3.11%	3.27%	3.97%	4.04%	4.85%	4.01%	4.89%	4.56%	5.32%	4.16%	4.87%	4.58%	5.24%	4.15%	4.62%	3.77%	3.98%	3.46%	3.35%	2.86%	2.48%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%	0.28%	0.50%	0.65%	0.97%	1.06%	1.45%	1.49%	2.08%	2.03%	2.83%	2.63%	3.44%	2.93%	3.83%	3.29%	4.84%	4.08%	4.87%	4.15%	5.26%	4.45%	5.21%	4.61%	5.06%	4.69%	4.81%	4.38%	4.39%	3.96%	3.32%	2.35%
Miami Dolphins	0.06%	0.27%	0.43%	0.64%	0.83%	0.94%	1.35%	1.40%	1.83%	1.93%	2.66%	2.59%	3.23%	2.97%	3.65%	3.45%	4.47%	4.06%	4.78%	4.41%	5.14%	4.81%	5.09%	4.68%	5.05%	4.83%	4.93%	4.61%	4.65%	3.94%	3.70%	2.61%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.17%	0.36%	0.48%	0.72%	0.89%	1.32%	1.43%	1.75%	1.95%	2.39%	2.28%	2.90%	2.90%	3.58%	3.35%	3.81%	3.71%	4.55%	4.33%	4.79%	4.52%	4.96%	4.92%	4.95%	4.95%	5.06%	4.89%	4.96%	4.90%	4.57%	3.60%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.10%	0.24%	0.41%	0.59%	0.87%	0.95%	1.30%	1.49%	1.73%	1.99%	2.32%	2.46%	2.79%	3.01%	3.40%	3.36%	3.88%	4.13%	4.62%	4.57%	4.88%	4.97%	5.11%	5.58%	5.80%	5.48%	5.95%	5.15%	5.02%	4.00%	3.82%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.10%	0.25%	0.37%	0.54%	0.62%	0.83%	0.93%	1.23%	1.41%	1.70%	1.81%	2.20%	2.42%	2.94%	3.10%	3.63%	3.73%	3.93%	4.65%	4.62%	5.37%	5.00%	5.72%	5.22%	5.76%	5.35%	5.84%	5.50%	5.88%	4.94%	4.36%
Arizona Cardinals	0.03%	0.07%	0.16%	0.26%	0.36%	0.53%	0.63%	0.90%	1.07%	1.38%	1.54%	1.85%	2.07%	2.71%	2.88%	3.50%	3.29%	4.11%	4.03%	4.51%	4.44%	4.80%	5.23%	5.77%	5.19%	5.56%	5.46%	5.59%	5.43%	5.28%	5.72%	5.68%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.09%	0.18%	0.26%	0.45%	0.56%	0.77%	0.84%	1.04%	1.26%	1.57%	1.66%	2.02%	2.27%	2.83%	2.78%	3.39%	3.48%	4.06%	4.23%	4.82%	5.06%	5.30%	5.68%	5.50%	5.61%	5.60%	5.62%	5.74%	5.79%	6.23%	5.27%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.14%	0.25%	0.38%	0.52%	0.69%	0.88%	1.05%	1.27%	1.48%	1.81%	2.02%	2.49%	2.60%	2.93%	3.16%	3.81%	3.78%	4.30%	4.34%	4.96%	4.94%	5.82%	5.91%	6.36%	6.45%	6.82%	6.94%	7.39%	6.36%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.04%	0.10%	0.18%	0.24%	0.34%	0.42%	0.59%	0.69%	0.91%	1.08%	1.33%	1.45%	1.86%	2.20%	2.46%	2.78%	3.19%	3.54%	3.95%	4.36%	4.92%	4.95%	5.29%	5.68%	6.05%	6.27%	6.67%	7.18%	7.40%	6.86%	7.02%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.11%	0.15%	0.26%	0.33%	0.48%	0.65%	0.81%	0.99%	1.21%	1.41%	1.55%	1.87%	2.14%	2.63%	2.79%	3.16%	3.34%	3.89%	4.17%	4.83%	4.78%	5.95%	6.02%	6.94%	7.38%	7.59%	8.46%	7.66%	8.31%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.10%	0.13%	0.18%	0.31%	0.34%	0.53%	0.58%	0.82%	0.89%	1.24%	1.23%	1.64%	1.71%	2.59%	2.47%	2.96%	2.93%	3.97%	4.07%	4.97%	4.79%	6.49%	6.34%	7.69%	7.36%	8.46%	7.80%	9.06%	8.26%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.12%	0.15%	0.27%	0.30%	0.43%	0.45%	0.71%	0.80%	1.06%	1.13%	1.42%	1.55%	1.94%	2.20%	2.69%	2.97%	3.59%	3.99%	4.61%	4.98%	5.52%	5.99%	7.05%	7.23%	8.72%	8.69%	10.69%	10.63%
St. Louis Rams	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.14%	0.18%	0.22%	0.27%	0.36%	0.56%	0.63%	0.85%	0.94%	1.30%	1.51%	1.84%	2.02%	2.50%	2.89%	3.66%	3.97%	4.91%	5.69%	7.05%	8.19%	11.12%	14.84%	24.17%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	29.68%	24.80%	13.17%	4.93%	8.41%	7.66%	11.36%
Baltimore Ravens	24.27%	16.18%	7.32%	1.93%	21.44%	10.85%	18.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.97%	12.81%	7.00%	2.01%	22.64%	12.81%	24.74%
Houston Texans	10.90%	15.86%	24.71%	14.46%	4.13%	5.78%	24.16%
New York Jets	5.64%	7.57%	5.00%	2.15%	13.98%	16.10%	49.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.10%	3.61%	2.55%	0.77%	11.22%	11.34%	67.41%
San Diego Chargers	3.08%	6.35%	13.18%	29.00%	1.29%	3.32%	43.79%
Tennessee Titans	2.90%	5.56%	10.87%	7.83%	5.53%	8.50%	58.82%
Oakland Raiders	0.90%	2.54%	6.39%	16.49%	1.32%	3.48%	68.87%
Buffalo Bills	0.50%	1.23%	1.09%	0.65%	3.48%	5.93%	87.11%
Miami Dolphins	0.45%	1.27%	1.15%	0.72%	2.97%	5.64%	87.80%
Denver Broncos	0.30%	1.05%	3.19%	9.51%	0.84%	2.31%	82.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.17%	0.55%	2.02%	2.07%	1.11%	2.52%	91.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.31%	1.47%	6.18%	0.37%	1.21%	90.39%
Cleveland Browns	0.06%	0.14%	0.16%	0.11%	0.90%	1.52%	97.12%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.17%	0.73%	1.19%	0.36%	1.02%	96.51%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	63.13%	17.23%	6.06%	1.54%	7.66%	2.37%	2.01%
New Orleans Saints	12.97%	23.67%	17.44%	9.14%	9.66%	8.66%	18.47%
San Francisco 49ers	7.84%	21.06%	24.14%	28.39%	1.52%	2.62%	14.43%
Atlanta Falcons	4.45%	10.49%	10.05%	6.13%	12.97%	13.70%	42.22%
Chicago Bears	3.17%	1.88%	0.93%	0.32%	23.86%	14.70%	55.13%
Detroit Lions	2.58%	1.66%	0.87%	0.29%	19.89%	13.37%	61.35%
Dallas Cowboys	2.31%	8.35%	12.65%	14.76%	4.75%	8.16%	49.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.52%	6.28%	10.08%	11.26%	4.78%	7.98%	58.09%
New York Giants	1.19%	4.63%	8.21%	11.12%	3.90%	7.49%	63.47%
Seattle Seahawks	0.31%	1.70%	3.44%	6.67%	2.57%	5.16%	80.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.94%	1.29%	1.13%	2.41%	3.72%	90.33%
Washington Redskins	0.12%	0.97%	2.38%	4.17%	1.44%	3.58%	87.33%
Minnesota Vikings	0.09%	0.11%	0.09%	0.06%	1.87%	2.48%	95.30%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.57%	1.46%	3.55%	1.27%	3.03%	90.05%
Carolina Panthers	0.08%	0.42%	0.77%	0.86%	1.30%	2.53%	94.05%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	0.04%	0.15%	0.60%	0.17%	0.45%	98.58%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+13.73%

Fortress

56.86%43.14%

Elo Value

Home Edge

24 Elo

0.042 points per Elo point

047.9960

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.30 points

Home-Tilted

-8+2.02+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 3.12% · Tough Road: 3.12% to 6.25% · Favored: 6.25% to 12.5% · Heavy Favorite: 12.5% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.2

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

New York Giants, 14th of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

1.0%

Long Shot

06.25%20%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.48 · As Expected: 1.48 to 2.03 · Elevated: 2.03 to 2.77 · High Variance: 2.77 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.57 · Close: 4.57 to 6.18 · Off Target: 6.18 to 8.06 · Well Off Target: 8.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.65 · As Expected: 2.65 to 4.41 · More Than Expected: 4.41 to 7.06 · Far More Than Expected: 7.06 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.59 wins

As Expected

01.845

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.19

Pinpoint

05.3715

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

97.99%

Green Bay Packers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

4.32%

Indianapolis Colts

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 32

Several Outliers

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

4 of 12

As Expected

03.512

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.98

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

95%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.21

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.79

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.50

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.70

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.06

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.041

Well Within Noise

00.0960.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	93.52%	93.52%	68.63%	45.41%	27.31%
New England Patriots	81.23%	81.23%	60.53%	41.27%	22.09%
New Orleans Saints	69.63%	69.63%	43.82%	22.87%	13.20%
San Francisco 49ers	69.05%	69.05%	35.88%	15.91%	8.34%
Baltimore Ravens	66.09%	66.09%	37.88%	18.55%	7.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	58.80%	58.80%	33.59%	16.79%	7.36%
Houston Texans	55.32%	55.32%	24.20%	9.72%	3.42%
Atlanta Falcons	42.84%	35.40%	14.02%	4.71%	2.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	34.11%	27.47%	10.28%	3.72%	1.77%
San Diego Chargers	46.79%	34.83%	13.30%	4.98%	1.70%
Detroit Lions	34.41%	18.75%	6.16%	2.22%	0.96%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.88%	17.57%	6.38%	2.14%	0.64%
New York Jets	37.24%	26.53%	8.27%	2.54%	0.64%
New York Giants	30.72%	19.98%	5.78%	1.60%	0.58%
Chicago Bears	39.82%	17.82%	4.48%	1.23%	0.43%
Tennessee Titans	32.72%	21.07%	6.35%	1.70%	0.40%
Dallas Cowboys	40.31%	25.69%	5.94%	1.25%	0.39%
Seattle Seahawks	17.84%	9.13%	2.63%	0.66%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	10.48%	5.91%	2.01%	0.63%	0.20%
Oakland Raiders	27.69%	13.47%	3.34%	0.80%	0.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.23%	3.67%	0.89%	0.22%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	15.85%	6.51%	1.41%	0.30%	0.06%
Arizona Cardinals	9.30%	3.81%	0.85%	0.18%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	11.15%	4.58%	1.05%	0.22%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers	5.46%	2.25%	0.53%	0.11%	0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.71%	2.79%	0.54%	0.11%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	11.57%	3.98%	0.59%	0.09%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	3.30%	0.85%	0.13%	0.02%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	2.69%	0.78%	0.14%	0.03%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	4.50%	1.00%	0.13%	0.02%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.55%	2.26%	0.23%	0.02%	<0.01%
St. Louis Rams	1.37%	0.25%	0.03%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		83.5%0.80%	69.7%1.78%	86.4%0.19%	75.9%2.51%	53.7%6.70%	85.0%0.47%	81.3%0.93%	73.5%1.58%	68.6%0.69%	31.5%3.07%	74.1%2.44%	73.1%4.40%	47.3%4.21%	57.5%7.83%	70.5%3.96%
Buffalo Bills	16.5%0.80%		31.7%0.31%	59.0%0.04%	41.8%0.58%	21.0%2.14%	50.0%0.09%	47.6%0.23%	36.4%0.35%	45.5%0.09%	10.6%1.42%	37.9%0.43%	38.2%1.02%	16.6%0.74%	21.4%1.95%	34.1%0.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	30.3%1.78%	68.3%0.31%		80.7%0.06%	57.9%1.40%	35.6%5.00%	72.1%0.25%	63.4%0.60%	55.0%0.87%	54.3%0.35%	18.2%2.36%	53.7%1.30%	55.8%2.67%	32.0%1.62%	37.9%4.85%	51.5%2.48%
Cleveland Browns	13.6%0.19%	41.0%0.04%	19.3%0.06%		44.2%0.13%	14.8%0.56%	44.0%0.03%	37.3%0.06%	28.2%0.08%	17.2%0.03%	5.2%0.25%	36.4%0.10%	33.5%0.22%	13.2%0.18%	21.3%0.51%	27.5%0.26%
Denver Broncos	24.1%2.51%	58.2%0.58%	42.1%1.40%	55.8%0.13%		25.5%1.22%	73.9%0.09%	56.6%0.26%	44.2%0.12%	40.5%0.53%	13.2%1.62%	46.2%2.04%	42.9%0.50%	22.4%2.75%	29.1%1.09%	45.9%1.00%
Houston Texans	46.3%6.70%	79.0%2.14%	64.4%5.00%	85.2%0.56%	74.5%1.22%		85.9%0.43%	79.2%1.17%	69.3%0.67%	65.4%2.00%	30.2%4.02%	70.8%6.78%	68.3%2.00%	44.3%7.57%	51.9%2.95%	65.2%5.87%
Indianapolis Colts	15.0%0.47%	50.0%0.09%	27.9%0.25%	56.0%0.03%	26.1%0.09%	14.1%0.43%		20.8%0.02%	26.7%0.04%	20.7%0.09%	8.4%0.34%	33.0%0.32%	28.9%0.17%	12.7%0.51%	14.4%0.27%	30.4%0.17%
Jacksonville Jaguars	18.7%0.93%	52.4%0.23%	36.6%0.60%	62.7%0.06%	43.4%0.26%	20.8%1.17%	79.2%0.02%		46.2%0.14%	29.0%0.24%	9.2%0.70%	39.6%0.71%	39.8%0.40%	18.2%1.08%	22.1%0.67%	34.3%0.50%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.5%1.58%	63.6%0.35%	45.0%0.87%	71.8%0.08%	55.8%0.12%	30.7%0.67%	73.3%0.04%	53.8%0.14%		45.7%0.30%	14.6%0.93%	48.4%1.28%	48.9%0.24%	26.2%1.59%	30.5%0.50%	45.6%0.55%
Miami Dolphins	31.4%0.69%	54.5%0.09%	45.7%0.35%	82.8%0.03%	59.5%0.53%	34.6%2.00%	79.3%0.09%	71.0%0.24%	54.3%0.30%		16.0%1.26%	51.8%0.44%	55.8%0.97%	31.2%0.75%	36.2%1.71%	49.8%1.03%
New England Patriots	68.5%3.07%	89.4%1.42%	81.8%2.36%	94.8%0.25%	86.8%1.62%	69.8%4.02%	91.6%0.34%	90.8%0.70%	85.4%0.93%	84.0%1.26%		83.6%4.85%	85.2%2.58%	68.4%3.38%	71.3%4.26%	83.4%3.11%
New York Jets	25.9%2.44%	62.1%0.43%	46.3%1.30%	63.6%0.10%	53.8%2.04%	29.2%6.78%	67.0%0.32%	60.4%0.71%	51.6%1.28%	48.2%0.44%	16.4%4.85%		50.1%3.77%	26.1%2.62%	32.7%6.81%	46.5%3.36%
Oakland Raiders	26.9%4.40%	61.8%1.02%	44.2%2.67%	66.5%0.22%	57.1%0.50%	31.7%2.00%	71.1%0.17%	60.2%0.40%	51.1%0.24%	44.2%0.97%	14.8%2.58%	49.9%3.77%		26.3%4.84%	32.6%2.14%	46.6%1.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	52.7%4.21%	83.4%0.74%	68.0%1.62%	86.8%0.18%	77.6%2.75%	55.7%7.57%	87.3%0.51%	81.8%1.08%	73.8%1.59%	68.8%0.75%	31.6%3.38%	73.9%2.62%	73.7%4.84%		58.0%8.10%	72.4%4.52%
San Diego Chargers	42.5%7.83%	78.6%1.95%	62.1%4.85%	78.7%0.51%	70.9%1.09%	48.1%2.95%	85.6%0.27%	77.9%0.67%	69.5%0.50%	63.8%1.71%	28.7%4.26%	67.3%6.81%	67.4%2.14%	42.0%8.10%		66.7%3.16%
Tennessee Titans	29.5%3.96%	65.9%0.98%	48.5%2.48%	72.5%0.26%	54.1%1.00%	34.8%5.87%	69.6%0.17%	65.7%0.50%	54.4%0.55%	50.2%1.03%	16.6%3.11%	53.5%3.36%	53.4%1.77%	27.6%4.52%	33.3%3.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		32.2%1.06%	51.0%0.10%	49.5%1.06%	46.2%0.85%	39.9%0.95%	14.9%0.53%	69.5%0.08%	15.9%1.18%	38.2%0.60%	27.4%0.74%	21.3%1.56%	41.0%0.17%	90.0%0.01%	82.4%0.18%	65.6%0.22%
Atlanta Falcons	67.8%1.06%		66.9%0.41%	66.9%3.30%	63.2%5.12%	55.3%2.89%	23.2%1.85%	80.8%0.42%	30.0%7.50%	54.6%3.87%	43.2%4.26%	30.9%7.89%	59.4%2.01%	86.7%0.14%	87.9%0.73%	76.2%1.39%
Carolina Panthers	49.0%0.10%	33.1%0.41%		51.2%0.36%	44.9%0.63%	36.3%0.33%	12.7%0.31%	73.3%0.04%	16.6%0.81%	38.3%0.46%	27.9%0.51%	20.3%1.05%	42.3%0.24%	90.9%0.02%	78.6%0.07%	59.5%0.12%
Chicago Bears	50.5%1.06%	33.1%3.30%	48.8%0.36%		48.2%5.66%	38.4%0.25%	15.2%1.64%	79.2%0.02%	16.4%5.31%	38.6%3.99%	28.5%4.07%	20.4%10.10%	42.2%1.88%	77.5%0.17%	76.1%0.55%	61.7%1.46%
Dallas Cowboys	53.8%0.85%	36.8%5.12%	55.1%0.63%	51.8%5.66%		39.9%4.61%	15.2%1.99%	68.7%0.61%	17.9%4.89%	40.1%3.52%	30.4%4.36%	20.1%4.17%	48.0%1.66%	77.7%0.12%	78.3%0.98%	64.9%1.13%
Detroit Lions	60.1%0.95%	44.7%2.89%	63.7%0.33%	61.6%0.25%	60.1%4.61%		21.2%1.40%	93.1%0.03%	24.0%4.47%	50.5%3.35%	37.8%3.74%	30.4%8.79%	55.4%1.83%	80.0%0.16%	84.4%0.47%	70.8%1.16%
Green Bay Packers	85.1%0.53%	76.8%1.85%	87.3%0.31%	84.8%1.64%	84.8%1.99%	78.8%1.40%		94.0%0.23%	54.7%1.59%	77.9%1.58%	68.7%1.67%	57.3%2.80%	82.2%0.97%	90.1%0.08%	94.0%0.37%	88.9%0.63%
Minnesota Vikings	30.5%0.08%	19.2%0.42%	26.7%0.04%	20.8%0.02%	31.3%0.61%	6.9%0.03%	6.0%0.23%		7.3%0.68%	22.3%0.43%	12.8%0.46%	11.8%1.07%	20.7%0.20%	57.1%<0.01%	54.1%0.06%	44.9%0.14%
New Orleans Saints	84.1%1.18%	70.0%7.50%	83.4%0.81%	83.6%5.31%	82.1%4.89%	76.0%4.47%	45.3%1.59%	92.7%0.68%		75.6%3.93%	66.2%4.08%	52.5%5.41%	79.1%2.20%	93.1%0.17%	94.7%1.21%	89.3%1.46%
New York Giants	61.8%0.60%	45.4%3.87%	61.7%0.46%	61.4%3.99%	59.9%3.52%	49.5%3.35%	22.1%1.58%	77.7%0.43%	24.4%3.93%		38.5%2.72%	27.2%3.48%	54.8%1.26%	91.0%0.09%	84.9%0.72%	73.2%0.71%
Philadelphia Eagles	72.6%0.74%	56.8%4.26%	72.1%0.51%	71.5%4.07%	69.6%4.36%	62.2%3.74%	31.3%1.67%	87.2%0.46%	33.8%4.08%	61.5%2.72%		35.4%4.02%	65.7%1.50%	93.5%0.11%	90.6%0.89%	79.7%0.97%
San Francisco 49ers	78.7%1.56%	69.1%7.89%	79.7%1.05%	79.6%10.10%	79.9%4.17%	69.6%8.79%	42.7%2.80%	88.2%1.07%	47.5%5.41%	72.8%3.48%	64.6%4.02%		75.3%3.04%	93.9%0.20%	93.5%1.62%	89.1%1.47%
Seattle Seahawks	59.0%0.17%	40.6%2.01%	57.7%0.24%	57.8%1.88%	52.0%1.66%	44.6%1.83%	17.8%0.97%	79.3%0.20%	20.9%2.20%	45.2%1.26%	34.3%1.50%	24.7%3.04%		83.3%0.03%	81.1%0.42%	73.6%0.43%
St. Louis Rams	10.0%0.01%	13.3%0.14%	9.1%0.02%	22.5%0.17%	22.3%0.12%	20.0%0.16%	9.9%0.08%	42.9%<0.01%	6.9%0.17%	9.0%0.09%	6.5%0.11%	6.1%0.20%	16.7%0.03%		61.3%0.03%	39.4%0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.6%0.18%	12.1%0.73%	21.4%0.07%	23.9%0.55%	21.7%0.98%	15.6%0.47%	6.0%0.37%	45.9%0.06%	5.3%1.21%	15.1%0.72%	9.4%0.89%	6.5%1.62%	18.9%0.42%	38.7%0.03%		37.0%0.25%
Washington Redskins	34.4%0.22%	23.8%1.39%	40.5%0.12%	38.3%1.46%	35.1%1.13%	29.2%1.16%	11.1%0.63%	55.1%0.14%	10.7%1.46%	26.8%0.71%	20.3%0.97%	10.9%1.47%	26.4%0.43%	60.6%0.03%	63.0%0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		81.1%0.86%	68.3%3.57%	85.9%0.14%	79.4%1.33%	60.3%10.82%	86.3%0.20%	84.0%0.56%	77.0%0.79%	70.8%1.18%	35.6%13.07%	72.0%4.65%	78.3%2.60%	48.3%15.56%	65.6%6.55%	74.0%4.18%
Buffalo Bills	18.9%0.86%		42.1%0.13%	66.7%<0.01%	62.1%0.06%	25.7%0.75%	71.4%<0.01%	41.2%0.03%	41.3%0.05%	38.5%0.01%	11.3%1.05%	31.9%0.16%	43.0%0.13%	17.5%0.76%	33.0%0.35%	37.1%0.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.7%3.57%	57.9%0.13%		78.9%0.02%	65.6%0.18%	41.2%2.60%	72.0%0.03%	66.4%0.11%	68.3%0.12%	55.6%0.17%	20.6%4.19%	56.1%1.01%	63.7%0.48%	31.9%2.78%	44.0%1.35%	58.0%0.82%
Cleveland Browns	14.1%0.14%	33.3%<0.01%	21.1%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	16.2%0.12%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	9.4%0.23%	43.5%0.05%	25.0%0.02%	18.5%0.09%	22.6%0.05%	35.1%0.04%
Denver Broncos	20.6%1.33%	37.9%0.06%	34.4%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%		24.3%1.00%	66.7%<0.01%	53.6%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	40.3%0.06%	11.7%2.00%	46.0%0.40%	42.3%0.03%	18.4%1.04%	25.3%0.09%	40.1%0.29%
Houston Texans	39.7%10.82%	74.3%0.75%	58.8%2.60%	83.8%0.12%	75.7%1.00%		76.0%0.05%	81.6%0.17%	69.7%0.52%	58.2%0.86%	26.4%15.99%	64.4%3.87%	69.2%2.04%	39.6%9.34%	54.5%5.39%	64.8%1.78%
Indianapolis Colts	13.7%0.20%	28.6%<0.01%	28.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	24.0%0.05%		100.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%	6.5%0.26%	26.9%0.05%	16.7%0.02%	14.3%0.12%	13.4%0.07%	10.0%0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	16.0%0.56%	58.8%0.03%	33.6%0.11%	0.0%<0.01%	46.4%0.03%	18.4%0.17%	0.0%<0.01%		41.7%0.01%	40.6%0.03%	10.6%0.90%	32.5%0.17%	33.3%0.07%	17.5%0.45%	26.7%0.20%	47.6%0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.0%0.79%	58.7%0.05%	31.7%0.12%	80.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	30.3%0.52%	40.0%<0.01%	58.3%0.01%		50.0%0.03%	12.4%1.18%	43.3%0.20%	14.3%<0.01%	24.5%0.54%	25.0%0.03%	44.6%0.18%
Miami Dolphins	29.2%1.18%	61.5%0.01%	44.4%0.17%	60.0%<0.01%	59.7%0.06%	41.8%0.86%	66.7%0.02%	59.4%0.03%	50.0%0.03%		18.3%1.43%	54.9%0.21%	64.6%0.19%	30.1%0.93%	41.0%0.46%	52.8%0.31%
New England Patriots	64.4%13.07%	88.7%1.05%	79.4%4.19%	90.6%0.23%	88.3%2.00%	73.6%15.99%	93.5%0.26%	89.4%0.90%	87.6%1.18%	81.7%1.43%		81.8%7.47%	85.6%4.21%	63.8%12.61%	76.3%10.69%	83.2%5.95%
New York Jets	28.0%4.65%	68.1%0.16%	43.9%1.01%	56.5%0.05%	54.0%0.40%	35.6%3.87%	73.1%0.05%	67.5%0.17%	56.7%0.20%	45.1%0.21%	18.2%7.47%		55.8%0.78%	27.2%3.85%	40.5%2.28%	48.8%1.37%
Oakland Raiders	21.7%2.60%	57.0%0.13%	36.3%0.48%	75.0%0.02%	57.7%0.03%	30.8%2.04%	83.3%0.02%	66.7%0.07%	85.7%<0.01%	35.4%0.19%	14.4%4.21%	44.2%0.78%		20.6%2.02%	33.2%0.23%	44.8%0.65%
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.7%15.56%	82.5%0.76%	68.1%2.78%	81.5%0.09%	81.6%1.04%	60.4%9.34%	85.7%0.12%	82.5%0.45%	75.5%0.54%	69.9%0.93%	36.2%12.61%	72.8%3.85%	79.4%2.02%		64.5%5.29%	74.3%3.41%
San Diego Chargers	34.4%6.55%	67.0%0.35%	56.0%1.35%	77.4%0.05%	74.7%0.09%	45.5%5.39%	86.6%0.07%	73.3%0.20%	75.0%0.03%	59.0%0.46%	23.7%10.69%	59.5%2.28%	66.8%0.23%	35.5%5.29%		59.3%1.80%
Tennessee Titans	26.0%4.18%	62.9%0.22%	42.0%0.82%	64.9%0.04%	59.9%0.29%	35.2%1.78%	90.0%0.01%	52.4%0.04%	55.4%0.18%	47.2%0.31%	16.8%5.95%	51.2%1.37%	55.2%0.65%	25.7%3.41%	40.7%1.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		32.7%0.40%	47.4%0.02%	50.6%0.08%	46.2%0.22%	32.2%0.09%	13.0%1.51%	60.0%<0.01%	17.4%0.91%	38.9%0.16%	27.1%0.19%	19.0%0.17%	42.9%<0.01%		76.2%0.02%	76.0%0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	67.3%0.40%		63.9%0.07%	60.2%1.19%	67.4%2.71%	50.0%1.13%	24.6%10.02%	78.8%0.07%	29.6%5.22%	58.4%2.04%	47.3%2.57%	37.6%8.68%	58.9%0.80%	85.3%0.03%	88.0%0.07%	76.5%0.40%
Carolina Panthers	52.6%0.02%	36.1%0.07%		39.7%0.07%	51.1%0.14%	38.5%0.05%	13.7%0.86%	50.0%<0.01%	13.6%0.24%	42.6%0.11%	30.2%0.13%	19.2%0.48%	45.1%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	77.3%0.02%
Chicago Bears	49.4%0.08%	39.8%1.19%	60.3%0.07%		56.0%0.73%	37.9%0.47%	17.0%8.83%	84.6%0.01%	20.5%2.58%	46.1%0.49%	33.4%0.63%	26.9%2.34%	47.4%0.23%	100.0%<0.01%	78.5%0.07%	68.3%0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	53.8%0.22%	32.6%2.71%	48.9%0.14%	44.0%0.73%		35.7%0.61%	14.9%7.30%	61.8%0.03%	18.8%6.74%	41.8%0.32%	31.8%0.42%	22.7%5.67%	43.6%0.59%	80.0%0.01%	73.5%0.17%	57.1%0.03%
Detroit Lions	67.8%0.09%	50.0%1.13%	61.5%0.05%	62.1%0.47%	64.3%0.61%		24.1%9.58%	60.0%0.02%	27.5%2.81%	56.5%0.49%	47.0%0.65%	35.3%2.45%	65.1%0.21%	100.0%<0.01%	86.8%0.07%	74.5%0.10%
Green Bay Packers	87.0%1.51%	75.4%10.02%	86.3%0.86%	83.0%8.83%	85.1%7.30%	75.9%9.58%		92.6%0.47%	58.3%15.80%	80.8%6.71%	73.1%9.19%	65.7%17.70%	81.9%3.38%	93.8%0.10%	96.1%0.64%	91.2%1.42%
Minnesota Vikings	40.0%<0.01%	21.2%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.01%	38.2%0.03%	40.0%0.02%	7.4%0.47%		7.9%0.16%	20.8%0.02%	26.3%0.04%	16.6%0.14%	28.6%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	82.6%0.91%	70.4%5.22%	86.4%0.24%	79.5%2.58%	81.2%6.74%	72.5%2.81%	41.7%15.80%	92.1%0.16%		75.9%4.68%	68.6%7.07%	58.2%19.90%	78.5%2.26%	88.5%0.06%	93.6%0.23%	88.8%0.97%
New York Giants	61.1%0.16%	41.6%2.04%	57.4%0.11%	53.9%0.49%	58.2%0.32%	43.5%0.49%	19.2%6.71%	79.2%0.02%	24.1%4.68%		34.7%0.29%	29.7%4.11%	57.6%0.38%	63.6%0.01%	80.5%0.13%	69.0%0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	72.9%0.19%	52.7%2.57%	69.8%0.13%	66.6%0.63%	68.2%0.42%	53.0%0.65%	26.9%9.19%	73.7%0.04%	31.4%7.07%	65.3%0.29%		39.8%5.52%	64.0%0.53%	81.8%0.01%	88.1%0.18%	79.4%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	81.0%0.17%	62.4%8.68%	80.8%0.48%	73.1%2.34%	77.3%5.67%	64.7%2.45%	34.3%17.70%	83.4%0.14%	41.8%19.90%	70.3%4.11%	60.2%5.52%		70.4%0.52%	87.5%<0.01%	92.1%0.57%	83.2%0.77%
Seattle Seahawks	57.1%<0.01%	41.1%0.80%	54.9%0.05%	52.6%0.23%	56.4%0.59%	34.9%0.21%	18.1%3.38%	71.4%<0.01%	21.5%2.26%	42.4%0.38%	36.0%0.53%	29.6%0.52%			85.3%0.07%	79.4%0.07%
St. Louis Rams		14.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	6.2%0.10%		11.5%0.06%	36.4%0.01%	18.2%0.01%	12.5%<0.01%			66.7%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23.8%0.02%	12.0%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	21.5%0.07%	26.5%0.17%	13.2%0.07%	3.9%0.64%		6.4%0.23%	19.5%0.13%	11.9%0.18%	7.9%0.57%	14.7%0.07%	33.3%<0.01%		32.1%0.03%
Washington Redskins	24.0%0.03%	23.5%0.40%	22.7%0.02%	31.7%0.08%	42.9%0.03%	25.5%0.10%	8.8%1.42%	50.0%<0.01%	11.2%0.97%	31.0%0.03%	20.6%0.03%	16.8%0.77%	20.6%0.07%	66.7%<0.01%	67.9%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		82.5%0.27%	66.1%0.82%	64.7%0.02%	78.8%0.30%	60.1%5.11%	88.0%0.03%	85.7%0.10%	73.2%0.16%	71.1%0.50%	36.5%19.17%	70.6%1.97%	78.1%0.68%	49.9%4.78%	61.0%2.68%	73.7%1.29%
Buffalo Bills	17.5%0.27%		41.9%0.03%		40.0%<0.01%	22.5%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	13.9%0.24%	40.9%0.02%	55.0%0.02%	20.0%0.21%	20.6%0.07%	53.8%0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	33.9%0.82%	58.1%0.03%		50.0%<0.01%	76.9%0.04%	39.1%0.71%	83.3%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%	44.4%0.03%	53.8%0.08%	23.4%2.82%	53.8%0.35%	55.8%0.10%	34.8%0.74%	43.3%0.45%	54.5%0.19%
Cleveland Browns	35.3%0.02%		50.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%	10.9%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%		18.8%0.02%	11.1%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	21.2%0.30%	60.0%<0.01%	23.1%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%		23.9%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%	14.0%0.52%	46.8%0.05%	25.0%<0.01%	22.4%0.24%	22.7%0.02%	42.1%0.04%
Houston Texans	39.9%5.11%	77.5%0.13%	60.9%0.71%	82.4%0.02%	76.1%0.18%		88.9%<0.01%	68.6%0.03%	76.0%0.10%	63.5%0.20%	28.9%9.73%	65.1%0.97%	68.8%0.38%	41.1%4.58%	54.9%1.68%	66.8%0.37%
Indianapolis Colts	12.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%			9.8%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	12.5%0.02%	36.4%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	14.3%0.10%	33.3%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%		20.0%<0.01%	31.4%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	17.1%0.19%	27.3%0.02%	43.8%0.02%	19.8%0.10%	21.4%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.8%0.16%	75.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.03%		0.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.10%		100.0%<0.01%		25.0%0.01%	15.0%0.37%	28.6%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%	31.2%0.14%	40.0%0.01%	60.6%0.03%
Miami Dolphins	28.9%0.50%	50.0%<0.01%	46.2%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	61.5%0.01%	36.5%0.20%		40.0%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%		21.6%0.52%	56.5%0.05%	66.7%0.02%	30.8%0.45%	39.3%0.11%	44.4%0.04%
New England Patriots	63.5%19.17%	86.1%0.24%	76.6%2.82%	89.1%0.06%	86.0%0.52%	71.1%9.73%	90.2%0.04%	82.9%0.19%	85.0%0.37%	78.4%0.52%		79.3%2.12%	84.4%1.18%	62.4%16.21%	73.7%4.88%	80.7%2.49%
New York Jets	29.4%1.97%	59.1%0.02%	46.2%0.35%	50.0%<0.01%	53.2%0.05%	34.9%0.97%	66.7%<0.01%	72.7%0.02%	71.4%0.03%	43.5%0.05%	20.7%2.12%		60.0%0.11%	28.4%1.88%	39.4%0.46%	57.8%0.23%
Oakland Raiders	21.9%0.68%	45.0%0.02%	44.2%0.10%		75.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.38%	0.0%<0.01%	56.2%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%	15.6%1.18%	40.0%0.11%		23.2%0.67%	42.9%0.05%	50.5%0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	50.1%4.78%	80.0%0.21%	65.2%0.74%	81.2%0.02%	77.6%0.24%	58.9%4.58%	87.5%0.02%	80.2%0.10%	68.8%0.14%	69.2%0.45%	37.6%16.21%	71.6%1.88%	76.8%0.67%		63.3%2.43%	74.4%1.13%
San Diego Chargers	39.0%2.68%	79.4%0.07%	56.7%0.45%	88.9%<0.01%	77.3%0.02%	45.1%1.68%	63.6%0.01%	78.6%0.04%	60.0%0.01%	60.7%0.11%	26.3%4.88%	60.6%0.46%	57.1%0.05%	36.7%2.43%		61.5%0.40%
Tennessee Titans	26.3%1.29%	46.2%0.03%	45.5%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%	57.9%0.04%	33.2%0.37%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	39.4%0.03%	55.6%0.04%	19.3%2.49%	42.2%0.23%	49.5%0.10%	25.6%1.13%	38.5%0.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		28.3%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	28.6%0.01%	37.5%0.03%	14.8%0.42%		22.5%0.18%	36.0%0.03%	30.3%0.03%	23.5%0.08%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	71.7%0.05%		68.8%0.02%	65.1%0.32%	69.4%0.31%	52.2%0.46%	25.5%7.35%	80.0%0.01%	32.3%2.27%	64.0%0.31%	46.0%0.55%	37.0%2.17%	66.7%0.14%	66.7%<0.01%	83.3%<0.01%	70.6%0.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.02%		29.4%0.02%	37.5%<0.01%	23.5%0.02%	16.3%0.26%		25.4%0.07%	40.0%0.01%	18.2%0.02%	26.3%0.10%	30.0%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears	50.0%0.02%	34.9%0.32%	70.6%0.02%		63.8%0.12%	43.5%0.11%	18.2%1.28%	60.0%<0.01%	23.9%1.24%	37.6%0.13%	42.0%0.19%	28.0%0.96%	46.9%0.06%		90.0%0.01%	70.0%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	71.4%0.01%	30.6%0.31%	62.5%<0.01%	36.2%0.12%		42.0%0.16%	16.0%2.99%	100.0%<0.01%	20.7%1.11%	40.4%0.06%	30.2%0.16%	22.5%0.94%	38.7%0.06%		100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions	62.5%0.03%	47.8%0.46%	76.5%0.02%	56.5%0.11%	58.0%0.16%		25.7%1.76%	100.0%<0.01%	30.2%1.76%	52.0%0.20%	46.5%0.33%	40.2%1.21%	62.1%0.10%		85.7%<0.01%	78.6%0.01%
Green Bay Packers	85.2%0.42%	74.5%7.35%	83.7%0.26%	81.8%1.28%	84.0%2.99%	74.3%1.76%		90.5%0.04%	57.5%25.62%	79.8%2.73%	71.8%4.75%	64.3%19.72%	82.6%1.27%	94.1%0.02%	92.1%0.14%	89.1%0.29%
Minnesota Vikings		20.0%0.01%		40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	9.5%0.04%		8.8%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	8.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	77.5%0.18%	67.7%2.27%	74.6%0.07%	76.1%1.24%	79.3%1.11%	69.8%1.76%	42.5%25.62%	91.2%0.03%		74.2%1.09%	66.5%2.18%	57.6%7.54%	75.7%0.57%	100.0%<0.01%	91.3%0.02%	87.2%0.12%
New York Giants	64.0%0.03%	36.0%0.31%	60.0%0.01%	62.4%0.13%	59.6%0.06%	48.0%0.20%	20.2%2.73%	66.7%<0.01%	25.8%1.09%		41.4%0.13%	31.9%1.00%	47.1%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	69.7%0.03%	54.0%0.55%	81.8%0.02%	58.0%0.19%	69.8%0.16%	53.5%0.33%	28.2%4.75%	71.4%<0.01%	33.5%2.18%	58.6%0.13%		40.9%1.80%	71.2%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	76.5%0.08%	63.0%2.17%	73.7%0.10%	72.0%0.96%	77.5%0.94%	59.8%1.21%	35.7%19.72%	92.0%0.03%	42.4%7.54%	68.1%1.00%	59.1%1.80%		69.7%0.21%	100.0%<0.01%	90.9%0.03%	85.6%0.10%
Seattle Seahawks		33.3%0.14%	70.0%0.01%	53.1%0.06%	61.3%0.06%	37.9%0.10%	17.4%1.27%	0.0%<0.01%	24.3%0.57%	52.9%0.07%	28.8%0.11%	30.3%0.21%			100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
St. Louis Rams		33.3%<0.01%					5.9%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%		10.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	7.9%0.14%		8.7%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	9.1%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	100.0%<0.01%	29.4%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	30.0%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	21.4%0.01%	10.9%0.29%		12.8%0.12%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%	14.4%0.10%	33.3%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	65.8%0.04%	54.4%0.86%	65.4%0.03%	62.5%0.25%	67.6%0.21%	55.1%0.40%	37.2%8.43%	50.0%<0.01%	40.0%4.22%	61.0%0.29%	48.7%0.73%	44.7%2.93%	67.2%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	71.4%0.01%
Buffalo Bills		25.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	9.9%0.09%		18.6%0.06%		33.3%<0.01%	20.5%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.0%<0.01%	45.9%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%	62.1%0.03%	60.0%0.03%	32.4%0.03%	25.4%1.02%		27.0%0.49%	40.0%0.03%	44.8%0.07%	33.9%0.33%	62.5%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	8.3%0.01%		12.5%<0.01%				100.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	100.0%<0.01%	13.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	30.0%0.01%	20.8%0.12%		16.9%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	20.5%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Houston Texans	59.1%0.02%	48.5%0.42%	75.0%0.02%	57.1%0.11%	57.1%0.11%	49.8%0.23%	30.3%4.43%	50.0%<0.01%	33.1%2.24%	51.0%0.15%	38.1%0.35%	39.1%1.56%	56.7%0.06%		100.0%<0.01%	77.8%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		33.3%<0.01%					37.5%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	21.6%0.05%		19.4%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		50.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	28.7%0.10%		23.8%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	50.0%<0.01%	46.7%0.03%		55.6%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%	30.0%0.29%		29.8%0.15%	62.5%<0.01%	31.6%0.02%	26.3%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	75.9%0.06%	66.3%2.01%	71.1%0.04%	72.2%0.52%	76.3%0.54%	64.9%0.90%	48.8%18.63%	87.5%<0.01%	50.9%9.47%	70.5%0.66%	61.6%1.54%	56.8%6.58%	73.3%0.26%		100.0%<0.01%	89.2%0.04%
New York Jets	55.6%<0.01%	36.3%0.11%	40.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%	52.9%0.03%	31.6%0.06%	19.1%1.17%	100.0%<0.01%	23.8%0.60%	49.0%0.05%	34.5%0.09%	31.8%0.37%	34.8%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders		31.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	72.7%0.01%	35.7%0.01%	18.1%0.36%		23.1%0.19%	41.7%0.01%	28.1%0.03%	23.0%0.13%	72.7%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.7%0.03%	55.6%0.77%	76.9%0.01%	68.2%0.19%	67.2%0.20%	54.4%0.39%	39.0%7.66%	100.0%<0.01%	41.9%3.79%	68.8%0.27%	53.9%0.63%	45.6%2.69%	61.7%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	72.2%0.02%
San Diego Chargers	45.5%0.01%	47.2%0.25%	66.7%<0.01%	50.9%0.06%	54.4%0.06%	52.7%0.11%	29.2%2.26%	100.0%<0.01%	31.5%1.12%	55.8%0.10%	38.6%0.18%	37.4%0.80%	53.1%0.03%			0.0%<0.01%
Tennessee Titans	100.0%<0.01%	39.5%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	38.9%0.02%	65.6%0.03%	38.5%0.04%	20.2%0.78%		18.0%0.38%	37.5%0.02%	32.7%0.05%	26.0%0.28%	54.5%0.01%			50.0%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals																	34.2%0.04%		50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	40.9%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	24.1%0.06%	44.4%<0.01%		33.3%0.03%	54.5%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons																	45.6%0.86%	75.0%0.02%	54.1%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	86.7%0.01%	51.5%0.42%	66.7%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	53.3%0.03%	33.7%2.01%	63.7%0.11%	69.0%0.03%	44.4%0.77%	52.8%0.25%	60.5%0.08%
Carolina Panthers																	34.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.02%			100.0%<0.01%		28.9%0.04%	60.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	23.1%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears																	37.5%0.25%	40.0%<0.01%	37.9%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	42.9%0.11%		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	27.8%0.52%	62.5%0.02%	87.5%<0.01%	31.8%0.19%	49.1%0.06%	61.1%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys																	32.4%0.21%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.03%		71.4%<0.01%	42.9%0.11%		100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	23.7%0.54%	47.1%0.03%	27.3%0.01%	32.8%0.20%	45.6%0.06%	34.4%0.03%
Detroit Lions																	44.9%0.40%	33.3%<0.01%	67.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	70.0%0.01%	50.2%0.23%		66.7%<0.01%	83.3%<0.01%	69.2%0.01%	35.1%0.90%	68.4%0.06%	64.3%0.01%	45.6%0.39%	47.3%0.11%	61.5%0.04%
Green Bay Packers																	62.8%8.43%	90.1%0.09%	74.6%1.02%	91.7%0.01%	79.2%0.12%	69.7%4.43%	62.5%<0.01%	78.4%0.05%	71.3%0.10%	70.0%0.29%	51.2%18.63%	80.9%1.17%	81.9%0.36%	61.0%7.66%	70.8%2.26%	79.8%0.78%
Minnesota Vikings																	50.0%<0.01%					50.0%<0.01%					12.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints																	60.0%4.22%	81.4%0.06%	73.0%0.49%	87.5%<0.01%	83.1%0.07%	66.9%2.24%	100.0%<0.01%	80.6%0.03%	76.2%0.04%	70.2%0.15%	49.1%9.47%	76.2%0.60%	76.9%0.19%	58.1%3.79%	68.5%1.12%	82.0%0.38%
New York Giants																	39.0%0.29%		60.0%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%	49.0%0.15%		50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	29.5%0.66%	51.0%0.05%	58.3%0.01%	31.2%0.27%	44.2%0.10%	62.5%0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles																	51.3%0.73%	66.7%<0.01%	55.2%0.07%		82.4%0.02%	61.9%0.35%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	68.4%0.02%	38.4%1.54%	65.5%0.09%	71.9%0.03%	46.1%0.63%	61.4%0.18%	67.3%0.05%
San Francisco 49ers																	55.3%2.93%	79.5%0.04%	66.1%0.33%		79.5%0.04%	60.9%1.56%	75.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	81.0%0.04%	73.7%0.10%	43.2%6.58%	68.2%0.37%	77.0%0.13%	54.4%2.69%	62.6%0.80%	74.0%0.28%
Seattle Seahawks																	32.8%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	43.3%0.06%			50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.26%	65.2%0.02%	27.3%0.01%	38.3%0.11%	46.9%0.03%	45.5%0.01%
St. Louis Rams																	0.0%<0.01%													0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	12.5%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins																	28.6%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	22.2%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		10.8%0.04%			27.8%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	77.43%	49.61%	28.64%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	100.00%	74.97%	52.60%	26.72%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	75.80%	40.10%	19.74%	11.31%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	52.05%	20.64%	9.98%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	61.97%	22.87%	9.21%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.33%	28.58%	13.41%	6.04%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	65.78%	24.27%	7.98%	2.97%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Atlanta Falcons	50.49%	13.53%	4.41%	1.91%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Detroit Lions	24.20%	6.09%	2.65%	1.17%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	49.51%	10.80%	2.94%	1.11%	Won Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	34.22%	6.75%	2.37%	0.80%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Denver Broncos	23.67%	3.45%	0.77%	0.15%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals			34.2%100.00%
Denver Broncos				23.7%100.00%
Houston Texans	65.8%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers		76.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons				50.5%100.00%
Detroit Lions			24.2%100.00%
New Orleans Saints		75.8%100.00%
New York Giants	49.5%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			80.7%8.10%	63.1%65.78%		53.3%26.12%
Cincinnati Bengals					19.7%34.22%
Denver Broncos	19.3%8.10%				12.1%15.58%
Houston Texans	36.9%65.78%
New England Patriots		80.3%34.22%	87.9%15.58%			67.3%50.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.7%26.12%				32.7%50.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons			24.0%38.11%			35.4%12.38%
Detroit Lions			25.2%24.20%
Green Bay Packers	76.0%38.11%	74.8%24.20%			80.5%37.69%
New Orleans Saints						52.9%75.80%
New York Giants			19.5%37.69%			29.3%11.82%
San Francisco 49ers	64.6%12.38%			47.1%75.80%	70.7%11.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		64.4%4.07%	77.6%1.21%		30.2%46.40%	51.4%10.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	35.6%4.07%		61.2%0.31%			30.8%2.37%
Denver Broncos	22.4%1.21%	38.8%0.31%		27.4%0.68%	15.1%1.26%
Houston Texans			72.6%0.68%		26.5%17.50%	46.8%6.10%
New England Patriots	69.8%46.40%		84.9%1.26%	73.5%17.50%		64.2%9.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.6%10.29%	69.2%2.37%		53.2%6.10%	35.8%9.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		53.0%1.08%	25.9%3.30%	28.5%4.79%		37.0%4.36%
Detroit Lions	47.0%1.08%				50.6%0.85%	41.2%4.16%
Green Bay Packers	74.1%3.30%			57.4%31.50%	79.2%2.61%	67.5%40.01%
New Orleans Saints	71.5%4.79%		42.6%31.50%		76.3%3.81%
New York Giants		49.4%0.85%	20.8%2.61%	23.7%3.81%		30.5%3.53%
San Francisco 49ers	63.0%4.36%	58.8%4.16%	32.5%40.01%		69.5%3.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	51.4%1.04%	48.7%0.59%	36.9%11.39%	37.1%4.48%	56.7%0.70%	45.6%4.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	42.7%0.08%	54.0%0.06%	28.5%1.20%	33.7%0.49%	46.0%0.06%	41.8%0.47%
Denver Broncos	28.6%0.03%	20.0%0.02%	17.7%0.38%	15.7%0.16%	29.2%0.02%	22.0%0.15%
Houston Texans	46.6%0.32%	50.0%0.23%	32.9%3.99%	35.3%1.55%	53.8%0.22%	43.2%1.66%
New England Patriots	61.2%2.39%	61.7%1.38%	47.1%25.95%	47.3%10.42%	67.3%1.55%	57.0%10.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.9%0.54%	53.3%0.37%	42.3%6.70%	41.7%2.64%	63.2%0.38%	49.0%2.79%
Atlanta Falcons							48.6%1.04%	57.3%0.08%	71.4%0.03%	53.4%0.32%	38.8%2.39%	44.1%0.54%
Detroit Lions							51.3%0.59%	46.0%0.06%	80.0%0.02%	50.0%0.23%	38.3%1.38%	46.7%0.37%
Green Bay Packers							63.1%11.39%	71.5%1.20%	82.3%0.38%	67.1%3.99%	52.9%25.95%	57.7%6.70%
New Orleans Saints							62.9%4.48%	66.3%0.49%	84.3%0.16%	64.7%1.55%	52.7%10.42%	58.3%2.64%
New York Giants							43.3%0.70%	54.0%0.06%	70.8%0.02%	46.2%0.22%	32.7%1.55%	36.8%0.38%
San Francisco 49ers							54.4%4.66%	58.2%0.47%	78.0%0.15%	56.8%1.66%	43.0%10.91%	51.0%2.79%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 28.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

39.20%

Win Prob

80.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

54.44%

Win Prob

67.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.98%

Win Prob

52.94%

New England Patriots 26.72% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.10%

Win Prob

67.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

61.56%

Win Prob

69.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

45.71%

Win Prob

47.06%

New Orleans Saints 11.31% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.80%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

67.95%

Win Prob

42.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.58%

Win Prob

52.73%

San Francisco 49ers 9.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

68.58%

Win Prob

47.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

62.98%

Win Prob

32.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.95%

Win Prob

42.96%

Baltimore Ravens 9.21% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

66.97%

Win Prob

63.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

61.32%

Win Prob

30.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

45.60%

Win Prob

36.88%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.04% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

76.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

57.35%

Win Prob

32.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

37.33%

Win Prob

48.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

46.98%

Win Prob

42.33%

Houston Texans 2.97% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

58.10%

Win Prob

26.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

44.27%

Win Prob

32.92%

Atlanta Falcons 1.91% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.49%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

67.61%

Win Prob

24.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.56%

Win Prob

36.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.48%

Win Prob

38.81%

Detroit Lions 1.17% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.20%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

64.56%

Win Prob

41.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.24%

Win Prob

38.33%

New York Giants 1.11% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.51%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

67.91%

Win Prob

19.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.57%

Win Prob

30.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.02%

Win Prob

32.73%

Cincinnati Bengals 0.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

19.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

61.12%

Win Prob

35.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

42.59%

Win Prob

28.55%

Denver Broncos 0.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

54.72%

Win Prob

12.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

35.20%

Win Prob

22.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

45.89%

Win Prob

17.68%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2011-09-11	Carolina Panthers	W 28-21	1423.36	1418.76	57.45%	42.32%	+20.69	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-22	1444.05	1492.16	36.36%	63.42%	-6.72	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1437.33	1394.42	49.10%	50.67%	-15.71	1-2
2011-10-02	New York Giants	L 27-31	1421.62	1549.20	38.69%	61.09%	-14.30	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-34	1407.32	1411.53	42.38%	57.39%	-38.36	1-4
2011-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-32	1368.96	1591.78	26.74%	73.08%	-17.12	1-5
2011-10-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 27-30	1351.84	1617.90	14.03%	85.84%	-4.49	1-6
2011-11-06	St. Louis Rams	W 19-13	1347.35	1358.00	55.29%	44.48%	+20.13	2-6
2011-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1367.48	1525.02	23.35%	76.48%	+28.23	3-6
2011-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1395.71	1647.91	15.02%	84.85%	-11.10	3-7
2011-11-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1384.61	1312.85	53.24%	46.52%	+14.89	4-7
2011-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-13	1399.50	1559.61	34.36%	65.43%	+29.59	5-7
2011-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-19	1429.09	1640.61	28.03%	71.78%	+18.74	6-7
2011-12-18	Cleveland Browns	W 20-17	1447.83	1375.19	66.63%	33.16%	+10.62	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-23	1458.45	1525.28	33.91%	65.88%	-16.58	7-8
2012-01-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1441.87	1523.04	45.18%	54.59%	+17.46	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-30	1545.85	1530.17	45.19%	54.57%	-35.43	0-1
2011-09-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-31	1510.42	1569.29	48.37%	51.39%	+18.99	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-16	1529.41	1500.78	47.05%	52.72%	-15.06	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-28	1514.35	1410.13	57.85%	41.92%	+10.96	2-2
2011-10-09	Green Bay Packers	L 14-25	1525.31	1685.29	34.37%	65.42%	-21.07	2-3
2011-10-16	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1504.24	1387.79	71.97%	27.84%	+19.25	3-3
2011-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-16	1523.49	1570.76	36.47%	63.31%	+30.92	4-3
2011-11-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-7	1554.41	1335.57	72.62%	27.19%	+24.62	5-3
2011-11-13	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1579.03	1583.99	56.10%	43.67%	-17.95	5-4
2011-11-20	Tennessee Titans	W 23-17	1561.08	1506.15	64.33%	35.46%	+16.06	6-4
2011-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1577.14	1388.11	79.58%	20.27%	+11.84	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Houston Texans	L 10-17	1588.98	1653.95	34.15%	65.64%	-16.70	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-23	1572.28	1408.23	65.94%	33.85%	+17.69	8-5
2011-12-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-14	1589.97	1390.33	80.55%	19.30%	+18.53	9-5
2011-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-45	1608.50	1683.48	32.87%	66.92%	-32.71	9-6
2012-01-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-24	1575.79	1267.51	88.54%	11.35%	+9.60	10-6
2011-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1565.26	1573.67	55.61%	44.16%	+43.17	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-26	1608.43	1473.18	62.13%	37.65%	-41.36	1-1
2011-09-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 37-7	1567.07	1392.10	67.34%	32.46%	+32.85	2-1
2011-10-02	New York Jets	W 34-17	1599.92	1562.60	61.97%	37.81%	+28.81	3-1
2011-10-16	Houston Texans	W 29-14	1628.73	1534.41	69.34%	30.46%	+21.81	4-1
2011-10-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-12	1650.54	1370.06	79.08%	20.76%	-32.64	4-2
2011-10-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-27	1617.90	1351.84	85.84%	14.03%	+4.49	5-2
2011-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1622.39	1636.07	41.05%	58.72%	+18.78	6-2
2011-11-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-22	1641.17	1374.40	77.75%	22.09%	-32.08	6-3
2011-11-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-24	1609.09	1557.88	63.83%	35.95%	+17.58	7-3
2011-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-6	1626.67	1659.01	52.19%	47.58%	+27.79	8-3
2011-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1654.46	1398.56	76.65%	23.18%	+16.03	9-3
2011-12-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1670.49	1251.12	93.60%	6.33%	+4.37	10-3
2011-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-34	1674.86	1523.79	64.25%	35.54%	-53.05	10-4
2011-12-24	Cleveland Browns	W 20-14	1621.81	1364.57	85.22%	14.66%	+6.64	11-4
2012-01-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-16	1628.45	1541.86	55.36%	44.41%	+23.20	12-4
2011-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-7	1446.18	1485.29	37.57%	62.21%	+66.98	1-0
2011-09-18	Oakland Raiders	W 38-35	1513.16	1516.05	56.39%	43.38%	+13.89	2-0
2011-09-25	New England Patriots	W 34-31	1527.05	1638.34	40.93%	58.84%	+18.82	3-0
2011-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1545.87	1461.45	55.05%	44.72%	-17.61	3-1
2011-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-24	1528.26	1498.12	60.99%	38.78%	+18.96	4-1
2011-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 24-27	1547.22	1516.26	47.38%	52.39%	-15.16	4-2
2011-10-30	Washington Redskins	W 23-0	1532.06	1438.20	69.28%	30.52%	+27.05	5-2
2011-11-06	New York Jets	L 11-27	1559.11	1562.04	56.38%	43.39%	-41.66	5-3
2011-11-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-44	1517.45	1489.72	46.92%	52.85%	-52.72	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 8-35	1464.73	1455.59	44.26%	55.51%	-42.50	5-5
2011-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 24-28	1422.23	1535.59	28.19%	71.61%	-10.42	5-6
2011-12-04	Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1411.81	1505.40	43.42%	56.35%	-19.65	5-7
2011-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-37	1392.16	1495.60	29.36%	70.44%	-28.20	5-8
2011-12-18	Miami Dolphins	L 23-30	1363.96	1480.05	40.27%	59.51%	-19.69	5-9
2011-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 40-14	1344.27	1491.66	36.02%	63.76%	+60.03	6-9
2012-01-01	@ New England Patriots	L 21-49	1404.30	1745.43	9.59%	90.32%	-9.37	6-10
2011-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-28	1418.76	1423.36	42.32%	57.45%	-20.70	0-1
2011-09-18	Green Bay Packers	L 23-30	1398.06	1635.68	25.10%	74.71%	-12.27	0-2
2011-09-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-10	1385.79	1450.93	47.47%	52.30%	+23.66	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 29-34	1409.45	1504.94	30.32%	69.48%	-12.53	1-3
2011-10-09	New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1396.92	1604.25	28.52%	71.29%	-9.13	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1387.79	1504.24	27.84%	71.97%	-19.25	1-5
2011-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 33-20	1368.54	1477.13	41.31%	58.46%	+38.93	2-5
2011-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1407.47	1404.86	57.17%	42.60%	-18.29	2-6
2011-11-13	Tennessee Titans	L 3-30	1389.18	1461.57	46.43%	53.33%	-44.57	2-7
2011-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 35-49	1344.61	1542.21	19.48%	80.36%	-13.47	2-8
2011-11-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-19	1331.14	1279.51	50.35%	49.41%	+25.82	3-8
2011-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-19	1356.96	1407.18	36.08%	63.70%	+51.27	4-8
2011-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 23-31	1408.23	1572.28	33.85%	65.94%	-17.70	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Houston Texans	W 28-13	1390.53	1677.22	12.66%	87.22%	+62.33	5-9
2011-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-16	1452.86	1291.51	76.87%	22.96%	+24.00	6-9
2012-01-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-45	1476.86	1716.19	15.99%	83.87%	-15.64	6-10
2011-09-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-12	1530.17	1545.85	54.57%	45.19%	+35.42	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-30	1565.59	1522.44	49.13%	50.63%	-37.42	1-1
2011-09-25	Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1528.17	1647.96	39.76%	60.02%	-23.23	1-2
2011-10-02	Carolina Panthers	W 34-29	1504.94	1409.45	69.48%	30.32%	+12.53	2-2
2011-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1517.47	1576.38	34.94%	64.85%	-21.42	2-3
2011-10-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 39-10	1496.05	1449.90	63.16%	36.62%	+36.45	3-3
2011-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-18	1532.50	1504.92	53.84%	45.92%	+20.78	4-3
2011-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-24	1553.28	1550.54	43.36%	56.41%	+25.52	5-3
2011-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 37-13	1578.80	1581.44	56.43%	43.34%	+39.24	6-3
2011-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 31-20	1618.04	1486.40	73.70%	26.12%	+16.01	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-25	1634.05	1482.62	64.29%	35.49%	-26.55	7-4
2011-12-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-10	1607.50	1378.88	83.02%	16.84%	-40.53	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1566.97	1497.47	52.92%	46.85%	-16.93	7-6
2011-12-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-38	1550.04	1472.27	67.28%	32.51%	-60.85	7-7
2011-12-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-35	1489.19	1756.04	13.98%	85.90%	-9.66	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-13	1479.53	1369.53	58.66%	41.11%	+15.19	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-17	1466.44	1460.85	43.76%	56.01%	+32.71	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 22-24	1499.15	1413.97	55.16%	44.61%	-14.41	1-1
2011-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 8-13	1484.74	1487.60	56.40%	43.37%	-23.29	1-2
2011-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1461.45	1545.87	44.72%	55.05%	+17.62	2-2
2011-10-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-20	1479.07	1403.81	53.75%	46.02%	+26.89	3-2
2011-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1505.96	1401.28	70.59%	29.22%	+17.07	4-2
2011-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-12	1523.03	1431.29	56.09%	43.68%	+37.85	5-2
2011-11-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1560.88	1483.95	53.98%	45.78%	+22.39	6-2
2011-11-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1583.27	1617.29	51.95%	47.82%	-25.39	6-3
2011-11-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1557.88	1609.09	35.95%	63.83%	-17.58	6-4
2011-11-27	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1540.30	1406.85	73.90%	25.92%	+8.30	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-35	1548.60	1651.27	29.45%	70.35%	-28.81	7-5
2011-12-11	Houston Texans	L 19-20	1519.79	1670.65	35.56%	64.22%	-6.57	7-6
2011-12-18	@ St. Louis Rams	W 20-13	1513.22	1271.48	75.16%	24.66%	+12.06	8-6
2011-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-16	1525.28	1458.45	65.88%	33.91%	+16.58	9-6
2012-01-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-24	1541.86	1628.45	44.41%	55.36%	-23.21	9-7
2011-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1460.85	1466.44	56.01%	43.76%	-32.71	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-19	1428.14	1487.18	34.92%	64.87%	+33.88	1-1
2011-09-25	Miami Dolphins	W 17-16	1462.02	1429.28	61.35%	38.43%	+7.10	2-1
2011-10-02	Tennessee Titans	L 13-31	1469.12	1524.62	48.86%	50.91%	-38.29	2-2
2011-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1430.83	1532.97	29.52%	70.28%	-14.44	2-3
2011-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 6-3	1416.39	1446.41	52.52%	47.25%	+15.12	3-3
2011-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1431.51	1603.47	21.90%	77.94%	-12.79	3-4
2011-11-06	@ Houston Texans	L 12-30	1418.72	1588.32	22.13%	77.70%	-17.35	3-5
2011-11-13	St. Louis Rams	L 12-13	1401.37	1337.87	65.45%	34.34%	-12.09	3-6
2011-11-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-10	1389.28	1421.40	52.22%	47.55%	+17.57	4-6
2011-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1406.85	1540.30	25.92%	73.90%	-8.29	4-7
2011-12-04	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1398.56	1654.46	23.18%	76.65%	-16.03	4-8
2011-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1382.53	1680.07	11.99%	87.90%	-7.34	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1375.19	1447.83	33.16%	66.63%	-10.62	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-20	1364.57	1621.81	14.66%	85.22%	-6.63	4-11
2012-01-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1357.94	1654.73	19.26%	80.58%	-7.12	4-12
2011-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1498.51	1552.07	35.64%	64.14%	-11.41	0-1
2011-09-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1487.10	1506.64	40.24%	59.53%	+19.05	1-1
2011-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 18-16	1506.15	1498.88	57.82%	41.95%	+10.96	2-1
2011-10-02	Detroit Lions	L 30-34	1517.11	1557.53	51.03%	48.74%	-18.85	2-2
2011-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 16-20	1498.26	1663.70	22.54%	77.29%	-8.34	2-3
2011-10-23	St. Louis Rams	W 34-7	1489.92	1333.28	76.39%	23.44%	+22.51	3-3
2011-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1512.43	1508.78	43.49%	56.28%	-41.75	3-4
2011-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-13	1470.68	1393.44	67.21%	32.58%	+19.04	4-4
2011-11-13	Buffalo Bills	W 44-7	1489.72	1517.45	52.85%	46.92%	+52.73	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1542.45	1372.84	66.65%	33.14%	+10.60	6-4
2011-11-24	Miami Dolphins	W 20-19	1553.05	1498.09	64.33%	35.45%	+6.56	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-19	1559.61	1399.50	65.43%	34.36%	-29.59	7-5
2011-12-11	New York Giants	L 34-37	1530.02	1481.31	63.50%	36.28%	-20.31	7-6
2011-12-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-15	1509.71	1313.58	69.95%	29.85%	+22.06	8-6
2011-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1531.77	1559.24	52.89%	46.88%	-35.22	8-7
2012-01-01	@ New York Giants	L 14-31	1496.55	1501.05	42.34%	57.43%	-32.26	8-8
2011-09-12	Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1428.83	1501.19	46.44%	53.33%	-14.86	0-1
2011-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-22	1413.97	1499.15	44.61%	55.16%	+14.40	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-17	1428.37	1514.55	31.46%	68.33%	-10.07	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-49	1418.30	1671.19	14.97%	84.90%	-14.10	1-3
2011-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 24-29	1404.20	1559.22	35.02%	64.77%	-14.47	1-4
2011-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 18-15	1389.73	1383.99	43.78%	55.99%	+17.91	2-4
2011-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 10-45	1407.64	1539.83	38.06%	61.72%	-41.61	2-5
2011-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-24	1366.03	1475.42	28.66%	71.15%	+49.14	3-5
2011-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1415.17	1430.97	40.76%	59.01%	+28.83	4-5
2011-11-17	New York Jets	W 17-13	1444.00	1557.43	40.64%	59.14%	+21.84	5-5
2011-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1465.84	1470.40	42.33%	57.44%	+18.37	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-32	1484.21	1376.26	58.37%	41.40%	+13.26	7-5
2011-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1497.47	1566.97	46.85%	52.92%	+16.93	8-5
2011-12-18	New England Patriots	L 23-41	1514.40	1717.61	29.00%	70.80%	-22.74	8-6
2011-12-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-40	1491.66	1344.27	63.76%	36.02%	-60.03	8-7
2012-01-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-7	1431.63	1415.41	59.07%	40.70%	-21.82	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1474.66	1510.71	37.98%	61.80%	+30.19	1-0
2011-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 48-3	1504.85	1418.31	68.38%	31.42%	+38.95	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 26-23	1543.80	1446.62	56.86%	42.91%	+13.73	3-0
2011-10-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-30	1557.53	1517.11	48.74%	51.03%	+18.85	4-0
2011-10-10	Chicago Bears	W 24-13	1576.38	1517.47	64.85%	34.94%	+21.42	5-0
2011-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-25	1597.80	1576.42	59.79%	39.99%	-27.04	5-1
2011-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-23	1570.76	1523.49	63.31%	36.47%	-30.93	5-2
2011-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 45-10	1539.83	1407.64	61.72%	38.06%	+41.61	6-2
2011-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-37	1581.44	1578.80	43.34%	56.43%	-39.23	6-3
2011-11-20	Carolina Panthers	W 49-35	1542.21	1344.61	80.36%	19.48%	+13.46	7-3
2011-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 15-27	1555.67	1755.65	29.39%	70.42%	-18.81	7-4
2011-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1536.86	1631.15	30.46%	69.33%	-21.07	7-5
2011-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1515.79	1363.01	75.98%	23.84%	+10.79	8-5
2011-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-27	1526.58	1460.17	52.48%	47.29%	+8.74	9-5
2011-12-24	San Diego Chargers	W 38-10	1535.32	1576.84	50.87%	48.90%	+47.80	10-5
2012-01-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 41-45	1583.12	1765.70	20.87%	78.97%	-2.57	10-6
2011-09-08	New Orleans Saints	W 42-34	1618.80	1539.32	67.49%	32.30%	+16.88	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-23	1635.68	1398.06	74.71%	25.10%	+12.28	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1647.96	1528.17	60.02%	39.76%	+23.23	3-0
2011-10-02	Denver Broncos	W 49-23	1671.19	1418.30	84.90%	14.97%	+14.10	4-0
2011-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 25-14	1685.29	1525.31	65.42%	34.37%	+21.07	5-0
2011-10-16	St. Louis Rams	W 24-3	1706.36	1340.40	91.50%	8.42%	+7.12	6-0
2011-10-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-27	1713.48	1413.45	80.87%	18.97%	+8.59	7-0
2011-11-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 45-38	1722.07	1535.41	68.80%	31.00%	+15.16	8-0
2011-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-7	1737.23	1423.15	88.88%	11.02%	+12.54	9-0
2011-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-26	1749.77	1428.36	89.29%	10.62%	+5.88	10-0
2011-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-15	1755.65	1555.67	70.42%	29.39%	+18.82	11-0
2011-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 38-35	1774.47	1487.77	79.66%	20.18%	+6.45	12-0
2011-12-11	Oakland Raiders	W 46-16	1780.92	1471.59	88.60%	11.29%	+11.42	13-0
2011-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-19	1792.34	1396.42	88.00%	11.89%	-36.30	13-1
2011-12-25	Chicago Bears	W 35-21	1756.04	1489.19	85.90%	13.98%	+9.66	14-1
2012-01-01	Detroit Lions	W 45-41	1765.70	1583.12	78.97%	20.87%	+2.57	15-1
2011-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-7	1483.35	1535.60	49.33%	50.44%	+48.42	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-13	1531.77	1456.14	53.80%	45.97%	+26.86	2-0
2011-09-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 33-40	1558.63	1559.86	42.80%	56.97%	-20.92	2-1
2011-10-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1537.71	1569.82	52.22%	47.55%	+23.24	3-1
2011-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 20-25	1560.95	1506.44	64.27%	35.51%	-26.54	3-2
2011-10-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-29	1534.41	1628.73	30.46%	69.34%	-21.80	3-3
2011-10-23	@ Tennessee Titans	W 41-7	1512.61	1524.57	41.29%	58.48%	+62.97	4-3
2011-10-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-14	1575.58	1402.69	78.03%	21.81%	+12.74	5-3
2011-11-06	Cleveland Browns	W 30-12	1588.32	1418.72	77.70%	22.13%	+17.35	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-9	1605.67	1464.39	62.94%	36.84%	+36.02	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-13	1641.69	1403.83	74.74%	25.08%	+12.26	8-3
2011-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1653.95	1588.98	65.64%	34.15%	+16.70	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-19	1670.65	1519.79	64.22%	35.56%	+6.57	10-3
2011-12-18	Carolina Panthers	L 13-28	1677.22	1390.53	87.22%	12.66%	-62.32	10-4
2011-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-19	1614.90	1300.13	82.15%	17.71%	-26.25	10-5
2012-01-01	Tennessee Titans	L 22-23	1588.65	1470.04	72.22%	27.59%	-4.45	10-6
2011-09-11	@ Houston Texans	L 7-34	1535.60	1483.35	50.44%	49.33%	-48.42	0-1
2011-09-18	Cleveland Browns	L 19-27	1487.18	1428.14	64.87%	34.92%	-33.87	0-2
2011-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1453.31	1556.35	42.08%	57.69%	-13.47	0-3
2011-10-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-24	1439.84	1515.84	32.74%	67.05%	-16.01	0-4
2011-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1423.83	1393.20	61.06%	38.72%	-22.55	0-5
2011-10-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1401.28	1505.96	29.22%	70.59%	-17.08	0-6
2011-10-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-62	1384.20	1585.19	19.18%	80.67%	-26.27	0-7
2011-10-30	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-27	1357.93	1461.60	29.33%	70.47%	-22.36	0-8
2011-11-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-31	1335.57	1554.41	27.19%	72.62%	-24.61	0-9
2011-11-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-17	1310.96	1389.95	45.49%	54.28%	-31.45	0-10
2011-11-27	Carolina Panthers	L 19-27	1279.51	1331.14	49.41%	50.35%	-25.82	0-11
2011-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 24-31	1253.69	1707.46	5.26%	94.69%	-2.57	0-12
2011-12-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1251.12	1670.49	6.33%	93.60%	-4.37	0-13
2011-12-18	Tennessee Titans	W 27-13	1246.75	1509.04	22.53%	77.30%	+53.38	1-13
2011-12-22	Houston Texans	W 19-16	1300.13	1614.90	17.71%	82.15%	+26.26	2-13
2012-01-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-19	1326.39	1357.43	38.66%	61.12%	-17.51	2-14
2011-09-11	Tennessee Titans	W 16-14	1471.21	1484.92	54.86%	44.91%	+11.74	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New York Jets	L 3-32	1482.95	1563.48	32.17%	67.63%	-32.02	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-16	1450.93	1385.79	52.30%	47.47%	-23.66	1-2
2011-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 10-23	1427.27	1580.79	35.22%	64.57%	-23.46	1-3
2011-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-30	1403.81	1479.07	46.02%	53.75%	-26.89	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1376.92	1584.92	18.56%	81.29%	-6.86	1-5
2011-10-24	Baltimore Ravens	W 12-7	1370.06	1650.54	20.76%	79.08%	+32.63	2-5
2011-10-30	@ Houston Texans	L 14-24	1402.69	1575.58	21.81%	78.03%	-12.74	2-6
2011-11-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-3	1389.95	1310.96	54.28%	45.49%	+31.45	3-6
2011-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-14	1421.40	1389.28	47.55%	52.22%	-17.57	3-7
2011-11-27	Houston Texans	L 13-20	1403.83	1641.69	25.08%	74.74%	-12.26	3-8
2011-12-05	San Diego Chargers	L 14-38	1391.57	1452.02	48.15%	51.62%	-43.58	3-9
2011-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-14	1347.99	1355.91	55.68%	44.09%	+42.34	4-9
2011-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-41	1390.33	1589.97	19.30%	80.55%	-18.53	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1371.80	1455.66	31.75%	68.04%	-14.37	4-11
2012-01-01	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-13	1357.43	1326.39	61.12%	38.66%	+17.50	5-11
2011-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1485.29	1446.18	62.21%	37.57%	-66.98	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-48	1418.31	1504.85	31.42%	68.38%	-38.95	0-2
2011-09-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1379.36	1535.75	23.47%	76.36%	-7.51	0-3
2011-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-17	1371.85	1432.89	48.06%	51.71%	+21.35	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-24	1393.20	1423.83	38.72%	61.06%	+22.55	2-3
2011-10-23	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-0	1415.75	1547.40	26.11%	73.70%	+71.99	3-3
2011-10-31	San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1487.74	1552.10	47.58%	52.18%	+16.69	4-3
2011-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 3-31	1504.43	1358.86	75.22%	24.60%	-73.46	4-4
2011-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1430.97	1415.17	59.01%	40.76%	-28.84	4-5
2011-11-21	@ New England Patriots	L 3-34	1402.13	1665.00	14.26%	85.62%	-14.66	4-6
2011-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1387.47	1642.68	23.25%	76.57%	-8.59	4-7
2011-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-3	1378.88	1607.50	16.84%	83.02%	+40.53	5-7
2011-12-11	@ New York Jets	L 10-37	1419.41	1571.25	23.94%	75.88%	-22.99	5-8
2011-12-18	Green Bay Packers	W 19-14	1396.42	1792.34	11.89%	88.00%	+36.31	6-8
2011-12-24	Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1432.73	1451.43	54.14%	45.63%	-17.32	6-9
2012-01-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 7-3	1415.41	1431.63	40.70%	59.07%	+21.81	7-9
2011-09-12	New England Patriots	L 24-38	1485.68	1584.12	42.73%	57.04%	-29.54	0-1
2011-09-18	Houston Texans	L 13-23	1456.14	1531.77	45.97%	53.80%	-26.86	0-2
2011-09-25	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-17	1429.28	1462.02	38.43%	61.35%	-7.10	0-3
2011-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-26	1422.18	1543.26	27.30%	72.51%	-15.96	0-4
2011-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 6-24	1406.22	1518.22	28.35%	71.45%	-22.23	0-5
2011-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 15-18	1383.99	1389.73	55.99%	43.78%	-17.91	0-6
2011-10-30	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1366.08	1531.43	22.55%	77.28%	-7.22	0-7
2011-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-3	1358.86	1504.43	24.60%	75.22%	+73.47	1-7
2011-11-13	Washington Redskins	W 20-9	1432.33	1396.11	61.82%	37.96%	+23.26	2-7
2011-11-20	Buffalo Bills	W 35-8	1455.59	1464.73	55.51%	44.26%	+42.50	3-7
2011-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-20	1498.09	1553.05	35.45%	64.33%	-6.55	3-8
2011-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-14	1491.54	1509.17	54.30%	45.47%	+37.57	4-8
2011-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-26	1529.11	1457.95	66.44%	33.35%	-49.06	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-23	1480.05	1363.96	59.51%	40.27%	+19.69	5-9
2011-12-24	@ New England Patriots	L 24-27	1499.74	1740.35	15.89%	83.97%	-5.09	5-10
2012-01-01	New York Jets	W 19-17	1494.65	1492.81	57.06%	42.71%	+11.16	6-10
2011-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-24	1483.94	1543.38	34.87%	64.92%	-17.05	0-1
2011-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-24	1466.89	1480.52	54.87%	44.90%	-20.27	0-2
2011-09-25	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1446.62	1543.80	42.91%	56.86%	-13.73	0-3
2011-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-22	1432.89	1371.85	51.71%	48.06%	-21.36	0-4
2011-10-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-10	1411.53	1407.32	57.39%	42.38%	+38.37	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-39	1449.90	1496.05	36.62%	63.16%	-36.45	1-5
2011-10-23	Green Bay Packers	L 27-33	1413.45	1713.48	18.97%	80.87%	-8.59	1-6
2011-10-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-21	1404.86	1407.47	42.60%	57.17%	+18.29	2-6
2011-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-45	1423.15	1737.23	11.02%	88.88%	-12.55	2-7
2011-11-20	Oakland Raiders	L 21-27	1410.60	1460.12	49.72%	50.05%	-22.49	2-8
2011-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1388.11	1577.14	20.27%	79.58%	-11.85	2-9
2011-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 32-35	1376.26	1484.21	41.40%	58.37%	-13.25	2-10
2011-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-34	1363.01	1515.79	23.84%	75.98%	-10.79	2-11
2011-12-18	New Orleans Saints	L 20-42	1352.22	1668.23	17.60%	82.25%	-15.25	2-12
2011-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-26	1336.97	1409.82	33.14%	66.65%	+32.56	3-12
2012-01-01	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1369.53	1479.53	41.11%	58.66%	-15.20	3-13
2011-09-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-24	1584.12	1485.68	57.04%	42.73%	+29.54	1-0
2011-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 35-21	1613.66	1560.43	64.10%	35.68%	+24.68	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1638.34	1527.05	58.84%	40.93%	-18.82	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-19	1619.52	1535.05	55.06%	44.71%	+28.61	3-1
2011-10-09	New York Jets	W 30-21	1648.13	1533.79	71.73%	28.08%	+15.57	4-1
2011-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1663.70	1498.26	77.29%	22.54%	+8.33	5-1
2011-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-25	1672.03	1608.90	52.01%	47.76%	-27.17	5-2
2011-11-06	New York Giants	L 20-24	1644.86	1538.64	70.77%	29.03%	-26.13	5-3
2011-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 37-16	1618.73	1603.70	45.10%	54.67%	+46.27	6-3
2011-11-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-3	1665.00	1402.13	85.62%	14.26%	+14.66	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-20	1679.66	1527.98	64.33%	35.46%	+27.80	8-3
2011-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-24	1707.46	1253.69	94.69%	5.26%	+2.57	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-27	1710.03	1367.62	84.36%	15.51%	+7.58	10-3
2011-12-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-23	1717.61	1514.40	70.80%	29.00%	+22.74	11-3
2011-12-24	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1740.35	1499.74	83.97%	15.89%	+5.08	12-3
2012-01-01	Buffalo Bills	W 49-21	1745.43	1404.30	90.32%	9.59%	+9.37	13-3
2011-09-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 34-42	1539.32	1618.80	32.30%	67.49%	-16.88	0-1
2011-09-18	Chicago Bears	W 30-13	1522.44	1565.59	50.63%	49.13%	+37.42	1-1
2011-09-25	Houston Texans	W 40-33	1559.86	1558.63	56.97%	42.80%	+20.93	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-10	1580.79	1427.27	64.57%	35.22%	+23.46	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1604.25	1396.92	71.29%	28.52%	+9.13	4-1
2011-10-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-26	1613.38	1476.74	62.32%	37.46%	-28.19	4-2
2011-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 62-7	1585.19	1384.20	80.67%	19.18%	+26.28	5-2
2011-10-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-31	1611.47	1310.77	80.93%	18.91%	-47.23	5-3
2011-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-16	1564.24	1484.14	67.57%	32.22%	+19.75	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1583.99	1579.03	43.67%	56.10%	+17.95	7-3
2011-11-28	New York Giants	W 49-24	1601.94	1516.98	68.18%	31.61%	+29.21	8-3
2011-12-04	Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1631.15	1536.86	69.33%	30.46%	+21.07	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 22-17	1652.22	1525.05	61.03%	38.74%	+16.01	10-3
2011-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-20	1668.23	1352.22	82.25%	17.60%	+15.25	11-3
2011-12-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 45-16	1683.48	1608.50	66.92%	32.87%	+32.71	12-3
2012-01-01	Carolina Panthers	W 45-17	1716.19	1476.86	83.87%	15.99%	+15.63	13-3
2011-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1522.54	1455.86	52.52%	47.25%	-36.30	0-1
2011-09-19	St. Louis Rams	W 28-16	1486.24	1413.31	66.66%	33.13%	+21.21	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-16	1507.45	1550.30	37.06%	62.72%	+41.75	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-27	1549.20	1421.62	61.09%	38.69%	+14.30	3-1
2011-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-36	1563.50	1399.17	77.17%	22.66%	-47.24	3-2
2011-10-16	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1516.26	1547.22	52.39%	47.38%	+15.17	4-2
2011-10-30	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1531.43	1366.08	77.28%	22.55%	+7.21	5-2
2011-11-06	@ New England Patriots	W 24-20	1538.64	1644.86	29.03%	70.77%	+26.13	6-2
2011-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1564.77	1631.31	33.95%	65.84%	-16.60	6-3
2011-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1548.17	1496.79	63.86%	35.93%	-31.19	6-4
2011-11-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-49	1516.98	1601.94	31.61%	68.18%	-29.21	6-5
2011-12-04	Green Bay Packers	L 35-38	1487.77	1774.47	20.18%	79.66%	-6.46	6-6
2011-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-34	1481.31	1530.02	36.28%	63.50%	+20.31	7-6
2011-12-18	Washington Redskins	L 10-23	1501.62	1360.04	74.79%	25.03%	-49.78	7-7
2011-12-24	@ New York Jets	W 29-14	1451.84	1542.02	30.97%	68.83%	+49.21	8-7
2012-01-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1501.05	1496.55	57.43%	42.34%	+32.26	9-7
2011-09-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-24	1552.07	1498.51	64.14%	35.64%	+11.41	1-0
2011-09-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 32-3	1563.48	1482.95	67.63%	32.17%	+32.01	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-34	1595.49	1502.16	56.32%	43.45%	-32.89	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1562.60	1599.92	37.81%	61.97%	-28.81	2-2
2011-10-09	@ New England Patriots	L 21-30	1533.79	1648.13	28.08%	71.73%	-15.57	2-3
2011-10-17	Miami Dolphins	W 24-6	1518.22	1406.22	71.45%	28.35%	+22.23	3-3
2011-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 27-21	1540.45	1573.69	52.06%	47.71%	+21.59	4-3
2011-11-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-11	1562.04	1559.11	43.39%	56.38%	+41.66	5-3
2011-11-13	New England Patriots	L 16-37	1603.70	1618.73	54.67%	45.10%	-46.27	5-4
2011-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-17	1557.43	1444.00	59.14%	40.64%	-21.84	5-5
2011-11-27	Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1535.59	1422.23	71.61%	28.19%	+10.42	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-19	1546.01	1392.87	64.52%	35.26%	+25.24	7-5
2011-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-10	1571.25	1419.41	75.88%	23.94%	+22.99	8-5
2011-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-45	1594.24	1507.02	55.45%	44.32%	-52.22	8-6
2011-12-24	New York Giants	L 14-29	1542.02	1451.84	68.83%	30.97%	-49.21	8-7
2012-01-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-19	1492.81	1494.65	42.71%	57.06%	-11.17	8-8
2011-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1501.19	1428.83	53.33%	46.44%	+14.86	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1516.05	1513.16	43.38%	56.39%	-13.89	1-1
2011-09-25	New York Jets	W 34-24	1502.16	1595.49	43.45%	56.32%	+32.89	2-1
2011-10-02	New England Patriots	L 19-31	1535.05	1619.52	44.71%	55.06%	-28.61	2-2
2011-10-09	@ Houston Texans	W 25-20	1506.44	1560.95	35.51%	64.27%	+26.53	3-2
2011-10-16	Cleveland Browns	W 24-17	1532.97	1430.83	70.28%	29.52%	+14.43	4-2
2011-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-28	1547.40	1415.75	73.70%	26.11%	-71.98	4-3
2011-11-06	Denver Broncos	L 24-38	1475.42	1366.03	71.15%	28.66%	-49.14	4-4
2011-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1426.28	1520.25	30.50%	69.29%	+33.84	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-21	1460.12	1410.60	50.05%	49.72%	+22.50	6-4
2011-11-27	Chicago Bears	W 25-20	1482.62	1634.05	35.49%	64.29%	+26.55	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-34	1509.17	1491.54	45.47%	54.30%	-37.58	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-46	1471.59	1780.92	11.29%	88.60%	-11.42	7-6
2011-12-18	Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1460.17	1526.58	47.29%	52.48%	-8.74	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1451.43	1432.73	45.63%	54.14%	+17.32	8-7
2012-01-01	San Diego Chargers	L 26-38	1468.75	1529.04	48.17%	51.60%	-30.82	8-8
2011-09-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-13	1534.44	1448.15	55.32%	44.45%	+34.85	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-35	1569.29	1510.42	51.39%	48.37%	-18.99	1-1
2011-09-25	New York Giants	L 16-29	1550.30	1507.45	62.72%	37.06%	-41.75	1-2
2011-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1508.55	1510.89	56.47%	43.30%	-10.43	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1498.12	1528.26	38.78%	60.99%	-18.97	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1479.15	1506.76	39.13%	60.65%	+29.63	2-4
2011-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-7	1508.78	1512.43	56.28%	43.49%	+41.76	3-4
2011-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 24-30	1550.54	1553.28	56.41%	43.36%	-25.52	3-5
2011-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-21	1525.02	1367.48	76.48%	23.35%	-28.23	3-6
2011-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 17-10	1496.79	1548.17	35.93%	63.86%	+31.19	4-6
2011-11-27	New England Patriots	L 20-38	1527.98	1679.66	35.46%	64.33%	-27.80	4-7
2011-12-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1500.18	1412.96	55.45%	44.32%	-42.23	4-8
2011-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 26-10	1457.95	1529.11	33.35%	66.44%	+49.07	5-8
2011-12-18	New York Jets	W 45-19	1507.02	1594.24	44.32%	55.45%	+52.22	6-8
2011-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1559.24	1531.77	46.88%	52.89%	+35.22	7-8
2012-01-01	Washington Redskins	W 34-10	1594.46	1377.26	82.08%	17.78%	+16.09	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-35	1573.67	1565.26	44.16%	55.61%	-43.18	0-1
2011-09-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-0	1530.49	1420.28	71.24%	28.56%	+25.86	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1556.35	1453.31	57.69%	42.08%	+13.47	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Houston Texans	L 10-17	1569.82	1537.71	47.55%	52.22%	-23.24	2-2
2011-10-09	Tennessee Titans	W 38-17	1546.58	1562.91	54.48%	45.29%	+38.34	3-2
2011-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-13	1584.92	1376.92	81.29%	18.56%	+6.86	4-2
2011-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 32-20	1591.78	1368.96	73.08%	26.74%	+17.12	5-2
2011-10-30	New England Patriots	W 25-17	1608.90	1672.03	47.76%	52.01%	+27.17	6-2
2011-11-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 20-23	1636.07	1622.39	58.72%	41.05%	-18.78	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1617.29	1583.27	47.82%	51.95%	+25.39	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-9	1642.68	1387.47	76.57%	23.25%	+8.59	8-3
2011-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-7	1651.27	1548.60	70.35%	29.45%	+28.80	9-3
2011-12-08	Cleveland Browns	W 14-3	1680.07	1382.53	87.90%	11.99%	+7.35	10-3
2011-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1687.42	1621.87	52.35%	47.41%	-39.87	10-4
2011-12-24	St. Louis Rams	W 27-0	1647.55	1259.42	92.44%	7.49%	+7.18	11-4
2012-01-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-9	1654.73	1357.94	80.58%	19.26%	+7.11	12-4
2011-09-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-17	1543.38	1483.94	64.92%	34.87%	+17.05	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 21-35	1560.43	1613.66	35.68%	64.10%	-24.68	1-1
2011-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1535.75	1379.36	76.36%	23.47%	+7.51	2-1
2011-10-02	Miami Dolphins	W 26-16	1543.26	1422.18	72.51%	27.30%	+15.96	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 29-24	1559.22	1404.20	64.77%	35.02%	+14.47	4-1
2011-10-23	@ New York Jets	L 21-27	1573.69	1540.45	47.71%	52.06%	-21.59	4-2
2011-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1552.10	1487.74	52.18%	47.58%	-16.69	4-3
2011-11-06	Green Bay Packers	L 38-45	1535.41	1722.07	31.00%	68.80%	-15.16	4-4
2011-11-10	Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1520.25	1426.28	69.29%	30.50%	-33.85	4-5
2011-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-31	1486.40	1618.04	26.12%	73.70%	-16.00	4-6
2011-11-27	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1470.40	1465.84	57.44%	42.33%	-18.38	4-7
2011-12-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-14	1452.02	1391.57	51.62%	48.15%	+43.58	5-7
2011-12-11	Buffalo Bills	W 37-10	1495.60	1392.16	70.44%	29.36%	+28.19	6-7
2011-12-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-14	1523.79	1674.86	35.54%	64.25%	+53.05	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-38	1576.84	1535.32	48.90%	50.87%	-47.80	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-26	1529.04	1468.75	51.60%	48.17%	+30.83	8-8
2011-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-17	1477.83	1449.09	60.80%	38.98%	+28.81	1-0
2011-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1506.64	1487.10	59.53%	40.24%	-19.04	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-8	1487.60	1484.74	43.37%	56.40%	+23.29	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1510.89	1508.55	43.30%	56.47%	+10.42	3-1
2011-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-3	1521.31	1531.85	55.31%	44.46%	+55.11	4-1
2011-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 25-19	1576.42	1597.80	39.99%	59.79%	+27.05	5-1
2011-10-30	Cleveland Browns	W 20-10	1603.47	1431.51	77.94%	21.90%	+12.79	6-1
2011-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-11	1616.26	1411.15	71.03%	28.78%	+15.05	7-1
2011-11-13	New York Giants	W 27-20	1631.31	1564.77	65.84%	33.95%	+16.60	8-1
2011-11-20	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-7	1647.91	1395.71	84.85%	15.02%	+11.10	9-1
2011-11-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-16	1659.01	1626.67	47.58%	52.19%	-27.80	9-2
2011-12-04	St. Louis Rams	W 26-0	1631.21	1297.96	89.92%	9.99%	+9.40	10-2
2011-12-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 19-21	1640.61	1429.09	71.78%	28.03%	-18.74	10-3
2011-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-3	1621.87	1687.42	47.41%	52.35%	+39.87	11-3
2011-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1661.74	1533.12	61.23%	38.55%	+10.08	12-3
2012-01-01	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-27	1671.82	1252.24	89.36%	10.54%	+5.14	13-3
2011-09-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-33	1449.09	1477.83	38.98%	60.80%	-28.81	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-24	1420.28	1530.49	28.56%	71.24%	-25.86	0-2
2011-09-25	Arizona Cardinals	W 13-10	1394.42	1437.33	50.67%	49.10%	+15.71	1-2
2011-10-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1410.13	1514.35	41.92%	57.85%	-10.96	1-3
2011-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 36-25	1399.17	1563.50	22.66%	77.17%	+47.24	2-3
2011-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-6	1446.41	1416.39	47.25%	52.52%	-15.12	2-4
2011-10-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-34	1431.29	1523.03	43.68%	56.09%	-37.85	2-5
2011-11-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-23	1393.44	1470.68	32.58%	67.21%	-19.04	2-6
2011-11-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 22-17	1374.40	1641.17	22.09%	77.75%	+32.08	3-6
2011-11-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-7	1406.48	1349.95	51.06%	48.71%	+37.10	4-6
2011-11-27	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1443.58	1362.24	67.73%	32.06%	-30.62	4-7
2011-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-14	1412.96	1500.18	44.32%	55.45%	+42.22	5-7
2011-12-12	St. Louis Rams	W 30-13	1455.18	1288.56	77.40%	22.43%	+17.09	6-7
2011-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-14	1472.27	1550.04	32.51%	67.28%	+60.85	7-7
2011-12-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-19	1533.12	1661.74	38.55%	61.23%	-10.08	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1523.04	1441.87	54.59%	45.18%	-17.46	7-9
2011-09-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-31	1448.15	1534.44	44.45%	55.32%	-34.84	0-1
2011-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 16-28	1413.31	1486.24	33.13%	66.66%	-21.21	0-2
2011-09-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-37	1392.10	1567.07	32.46%	67.34%	-32.86	0-3
2011-10-02	Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1359.24	1487.91	38.54%	61.24%	-18.84	0-4
2011-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1340.40	1706.36	8.42%	91.50%	-7.12	0-5
2011-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-34	1333.28	1489.92	23.44%	76.39%	-22.51	0-6
2011-10-30	New Orleans Saints	W 31-21	1310.77	1611.47	18.91%	80.93%	+47.23	1-6
2011-11-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-19	1358.00	1347.35	44.48%	55.29%	-20.13	1-7
2011-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-12	1337.87	1401.37	34.34%	65.45%	+12.08	2-7
2011-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-24	1349.95	1406.48	48.71%	51.06%	-37.10	2-8
2011-11-27	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1312.85	1384.61	46.52%	53.24%	-14.89	2-9
2011-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-26	1297.96	1631.21	9.99%	89.92%	-9.40	2-10
2011-12-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1288.56	1455.18	22.43%	77.40%	-17.08	2-11
2011-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1271.48	1513.22	24.66%	75.16%	-12.06	2-12
2011-12-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1259.42	1647.55	7.49%	92.44%	-7.18	2-13
2012-01-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-34	1252.24	1671.82	10.54%	89.36%	-5.15	2-14
2011-09-11	Detroit Lions	L 20-27	1510.71	1474.66	61.80%	37.98%	-30.19	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1480.52	1466.89	44.90%	54.87%	+20.26	1-1
2011-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1500.78	1529.41	52.72%	47.05%	+15.06	2-1
2011-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-17	1515.84	1439.84	67.05%	32.74%	+16.01	3-1
2011-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-48	1531.85	1521.31	44.46%	55.31%	-55.11	3-2
2011-10-16	New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1476.74	1613.38	37.46%	62.32%	+28.18	4-2
2011-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 18-24	1504.92	1532.50	45.92%	53.84%	-20.78	4-3
2011-11-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-27	1484.14	1564.24	32.22%	67.57%	-19.75	4-4
2011-11-13	Houston Texans	L 9-37	1464.39	1605.67	36.84%	62.94%	-36.03	4-5
2011-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 26-35	1428.36	1749.77	10.62%	89.29%	-5.88	4-6
2011-11-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1422.48	1490.10	33.81%	65.98%	-15.30	4-7
2011-12-04	Carolina Panthers	L 19-38	1407.18	1356.96	63.70%	36.08%	-51.27	4-8
2011-12-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-41	1355.91	1347.99	44.09%	55.68%	-42.33	4-9
2011-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 15-31	1313.58	1509.71	29.85%	69.95%	-22.07	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-48	1291.51	1452.86	22.96%	76.87%	-24.00	4-11
2012-01-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-45	1267.51	1575.79	11.35%	88.54%	-9.60	4-12
2011-09-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-16	1484.92	1471.21	44.91%	54.86%	-11.74	0-1
2011-09-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-13	1473.18	1608.43	37.65%	62.13%	+41.37	1-1
2011-09-25	Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1514.55	1428.37	68.33%	31.46%	+10.07	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-13	1524.62	1469.12	50.91%	48.86%	+38.29	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-38	1562.91	1546.58	45.29%	54.48%	-38.34	3-2
2011-10-23	Houston Texans	L 7-41	1524.57	1512.61	58.48%	41.29%	-62.97	3-3
2011-10-30	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-10	1461.60	1357.93	70.47%	29.33%	+22.35	4-3
2011-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1483.95	1560.88	45.78%	53.98%	-22.38	4-4
2011-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-3	1461.57	1389.18	53.33%	46.43%	+44.58	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-23	1506.15	1561.08	35.46%	64.33%	-16.05	5-5
2011-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1490.10	1422.48	65.98%	33.81%	+15.30	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-17	1505.40	1411.81	56.35%	43.42%	+19.65	7-5
2011-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 17-22	1525.05	1652.22	38.74%	61.03%	-16.01	7-6
2011-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-27	1509.04	1246.75	77.30%	22.53%	-53.38	7-7
2011-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1455.66	1371.80	68.04%	31.75%	+14.38	8-7
2012-01-01	@ Houston Texans	W 23-22	1470.04	1588.65	27.59%	72.22%	+4.44	9-7
2011-09-11	New York Giants	W 28-14	1455.86	1522.54	47.25%	52.52%	+36.30	1-0
2011-09-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 22-21	1492.16	1444.05	63.42%	36.36%	+6.72	2-0
2011-09-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-18	1498.88	1506.15	41.95%	57.82%	-10.97	2-1
2011-10-02	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-10	1487.91	1359.24	61.24%	38.54%	+18.85	3-1
2011-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-20	1506.76	1479.15	60.65%	39.13%	-29.63	3-2
2011-10-23	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-33	1477.13	1368.54	58.46%	41.31%	-38.93	3-3
2011-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-23	1438.20	1532.06	30.52%	69.28%	-27.05	3-4
2011-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 11-19	1411.15	1616.26	28.78%	71.03%	-15.04	3-5
2011-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-20	1396.11	1432.33	37.96%	61.82%	-23.27	3-6
2011-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1372.84	1542.45	33.14%	66.65%	-10.60	3-7
2011-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 23-17	1362.24	1443.58	32.06%	67.73%	+30.63	4-7
2011-12-04	New York Jets	L 19-34	1392.87	1546.01	35.26%	64.52%	-25.25	4-8
2011-12-11	New England Patriots	L 27-34	1367.62	1710.03	15.51%	84.36%	-7.58	4-9
2011-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1360.04	1501.62	25.03%	74.79%	+49.78	5-9
2011-12-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-33	1409.82	1336.97	66.65%	33.14%	-32.56	5-10
2012-01-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-34	1377.26	1594.46	17.78%	82.08%	-16.09	5-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2012-01-08	@ New York Giants	L 2-24	1585.39	1533.31	50.53%	49.47%	-43.68	0-1
2012-01-15	Houston Texans	W 20-13	1651.65	1613.06	62.26%	37.74%	+18.41	1-0
2012-01-22	@ New England Patriots	L 20-23	1670.06	1767.06	30.22%	69.78%	-9.65	1-1
2012-01-07	@ Houston Texans	L 10-31	1518.65	1584.20	34.17%	65.83%	-28.86	0-1
2012-01-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-23	1409.81	1661.84	23.64%	76.36%	+34.47	1-0
2012-01-14	@ New England Patriots	L 10-45	1444.28	1754.80	11.25%	88.75%	-12.26	1-1
2012-01-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-45	1580.55	1731.82	24.06%	75.94%	-18.28	0-1
2012-01-15	New York Giants	L 20-37	1768.27	1577.00	79.89%	20.11%	-60.70	0-1
2012-01-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-10	1584.20	1518.65	65.83%	34.17%	+28.86	1-0
2012-01-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-20	1613.06	1651.65	37.74%	62.26%	-18.40	1-1
2012-01-14	Denver Broncos	W 45-10	1754.80	1444.28	88.75%	11.25%	+12.26	1-0
2012-01-22	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1767.06	1670.06	69.78%	30.22%	+9.65	2-0
2012-02-05	@ New York Giants	L 17-21	1776.71	1658.45	66.39%	33.61%	-24.47	2-1
2012-01-07	Detroit Lions	W 45-28	1731.82	1580.55	75.94%	24.06%	+18.29	1-0
2012-01-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 32-36	1750.11	1676.96	53.56%	46.44%	-19.75	1-1
2012-01-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-2	1533.31	1585.39	49.47%	50.53%	+43.69	1-0
2012-01-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-20	1577.00	1768.27	20.11%	79.89%	+60.70	2-0
2012-01-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1637.70	1696.71	35.02%	64.98%	+20.75	3-0
2012-02-05	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1658.45	1776.71	33.61%	66.39%	+24.47	4-0
2012-01-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-29	1661.84	1409.81	76.36%	23.64%	-34.47	0-1
2012-01-14	New Orleans Saints	W 36-32	1676.96	1750.11	46.44%	53.56%	+19.75	1-0
2012-01-22	New York Giants	L 17-20	1696.71	1637.70	64.98%	35.02%	-20.75	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-12-18	11.89%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1396.42	19	Green Bay Packers	1792.34	14
2	2011-12-18	12.66%	Carolina Panthers	1390.53	28	@ Houston Texans	1677.22	13
3	2011-12-04	16.84%	Kansas City Chiefs	1378.88	10	@ Chicago Bears	1607.50	3
4	2011-12-22	17.71%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1300.13	19	Houston Texans	1614.90	16
5	2011-10-30	18.91%	@ St. Louis Rams	1310.77	31	New Orleans Saints	1611.47	21
6	2012-01-15 *	20.11%	New York Giants	1577.00	37	@ Green Bay Packers	1768.27	20
7	2011-10-24	20.76%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1370.06	12	Baltimore Ravens	1650.54	7
8	2011-11-13	22.09%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1374.40	22	Baltimore Ravens	1641.17	17
9	2011-12-18	22.53%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1246.75	27	Tennessee Titans	1509.04	13
10	2011-10-09	22.66%	Seattle Seahawks	1399.17	36	@ New York Giants	1563.50	25
11	2011-11-13	23.35%	Arizona Cardinals	1367.48	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1525.02	17
12	2012-01-08 *	23.64%	@ Denver Broncos	1409.81	29	Pittsburgh Steelers	1661.84	23
13	2011-11-06	24.60%	Miami Dolphins	1358.86	31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1504.43	3
14	2011-12-18	25.03%	Washington Redskins	1360.04	23	@ New York Giants	1501.62	10
15	2011-10-23	26.11%	Kansas City Chiefs	1415.75	28	@ Oakland Raiders	1547.40	0
16	2012-01-01	27.59%	Tennessee Titans	1470.04	23	@ Houston Texans	1588.65	22
17	2011-12-11	28.03%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1429.09	21	San Francisco 49ers	1640.61	19
18	2011-11-06	28.66%	Denver Broncos	1366.03	38	@ Oakland Raiders	1475.42	24
19	2011-11-06	29.03%	New York Giants	1538.64	24	@ New England Patriots	1644.86	20
20	2011-11-10	30.50%	Oakland Raiders	1426.28	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1520.25	17
21	2011-12-24	30.97%	New York Giants	1451.84	29	@ New York Jets	1542.02	14
22	2011-11-27	32.06%	Washington Redskins	1362.24	23	@ Seattle Seahawks	1443.58	17
23	2011-12-18	32.51%	Seattle Seahawks	1472.27	38	@ Chicago Bears	1550.04	14
24	2011-12-24	33.14%	Minnesota Vikings	1336.97	33	@ Washington Redskins	1409.82	26
25	2011-12-11	33.35%	Philadelphia Eagles	1457.95	26	@ Miami Dolphins	1529.11	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2011-11-06	73.47	Miami Dolphins	31	1358.86	24.60%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	3	1504.43	75.22%
2	2011-10-23	71.99	Kansas City Chiefs	28	1415.75	26.11%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1547.40	73.70%
3	2011-09-11	66.98	Buffalo Bills	41	1446.18	37.57%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1485.29	62.21%
4	2011-10-23	62.97	Houston Texans	41	1512.61	41.29%	@ Tennessee Titans	7	1524.57	58.48%
5	2011-12-18	62.33	Carolina Panthers	28	1390.53	12.66%	@ Houston Texans	13	1677.22	87.22%
6	2011-12-18	60.85	Seattle Seahawks	38	1472.27	32.51%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1550.04	67.28%
7	2012-01-15 *	60.70	New York Giants	37	1577.00	20.11%	@ Green Bay Packers	20	1768.27	79.89%
8	2011-12-24	60.03	@ Buffalo Bills	40	1344.27	36.02%	Denver Broncos	14	1491.66	63.76%
9	2011-10-09	55.11	@ San Francisco 49ers	48	1521.31	55.31%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	1531.85	44.46%
10	2011-12-18	53.38	@ Indianapolis Colts	27	1246.75	22.53%	Tennessee Titans	13	1509.04	77.30%
11	2011-12-18	53.05	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1523.79	35.54%	Baltimore Ravens	14	1674.86	64.25%
12	2011-11-13	52.73	@ Dallas Cowboys	44	1489.72	52.85%	Buffalo Bills	7	1517.45	46.92%
13	2011-12-18	52.22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	45	1507.02	44.32%	New York Jets	19	1594.24	55.45%
14	2011-12-04	51.27	Carolina Panthers	38	1356.96	36.08%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	1407.18	63.70%
15	2011-12-18	49.78	Washington Redskins	23	1360.04	25.03%	@ New York Giants	10	1501.62	74.79%
16	2011-12-24	49.21	New York Giants	29	1451.84	30.97%	@ New York Jets	14	1542.02	68.83%
17	2011-11-06	49.14	Denver Broncos	38	1366.03	28.66%	@ Oakland Raiders	24	1475.42	71.15%
18	2011-12-11	49.07	Philadelphia Eagles	26	1457.95	33.35%	@ Miami Dolphins	10	1529.11	66.44%
19	2011-09-11	48.42	@ Houston Texans	34	1483.35	49.33%	Indianapolis Colts	7	1535.60	50.44%
20	2011-12-24	47.80	@ Detroit Lions	38	1535.32	50.87%	San Diego Chargers	10	1576.84	48.90%
21	2011-10-09	47.24	Seattle Seahawks	36	1399.17	22.66%	@ New York Giants	25	1563.50	77.17%
22	2011-10-30	47.23	@ St. Louis Rams	31	1310.77	18.91%	New Orleans Saints	21	1611.47	80.93%
23	2011-11-13	46.27	New England Patriots	37	1618.73	45.10%	@ New York Jets	16	1603.70	54.67%
24	2011-11-13	44.58	Tennessee Titans	30	1461.57	53.33%	@ Carolina Panthers	3	1389.18	46.43%
25	2012-01-08 *	43.69	@ New York Giants	24	1533.31	49.47%	Atlanta Falcons	2	1585.39	50.53%