2009 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New Orleans Saints

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Indianapolis Colts

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2006

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.89 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.11 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

2.68 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.68 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	10	6	.625	—	427	285	+142	10.24	-0.24
2	New York Jets Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	348	236	+112	8.29	+0.71
3	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	3	360	390	-30	7.36	-0.36
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	4	258	326	-68	6.16	-0.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	6	.625	—	305	291	+14	7.73	+2.27
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	391	261	+130	10.63	-1.63
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	1	368	324	+44	11.07	-2.07
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	245	375	-130	5.19	-0.19

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	14	2	.875	—	416	307	+109	11.25	+2.75
2	Houston Texans	9	7	.562	5	388	333	+55	8.06	+0.94
3	Tennessee Titans	8	8	.500	6	354	402	-48	8.51	-0.51
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	9	.438	7	290	380	-90	6.99	+0.01

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	13	3	.812	—	454	320	+134	10.11	+2.89
2	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	5	326	324	+2	7.53	+0.47
3	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	8	197	379	-182	5.23	-0.23
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	9	294	424	-130	4.60	-0.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	5	.688	—	361	250	+111	8.87	+2.13
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	429	337	+92	10.81	+0.19
3	New York Giants	8	8	.500	3	402	427	-25	9.34	-1.34
4	Washington Redskins	4	12	.250	7	266	336	-70	6.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	4	.750	—	470	312	+158	10.59	+1.41
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	461	297	+164	9.17	+1.83
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	5	327	375	-48	7.88	-0.88
4	Detroit Lions	2	14	.125	10	262	494	-232	4.03	-2.03

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	—	510	341	+169	10.98	+2.02
2	Atlanta Falcons	9	7	.562	4	363	325	+38	8.53	+0.47
3	Carolina Panthers	8	8	.500	5	315	308	+7	6.94	+1.06
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	13	.188	10	244	400	-156	5.17	-2.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Arizona Cardinals Division	10	6	.625	—	375	325	+50	9.96	+0.04
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	8	.500	2	330	281	+49	7.64	+0.36
3	Seattle Seahawks	5	11	.312	5	280	390	-110	6.93	-1.93
4	St. Louis Rams	1	15	.062	9	175	436	-261	3.52	-2.52

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 24

Cincinnati Bengals 14

Jan 9

Baltimore Ravens 33

New England Patriots 14

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens 3

Jan 16

New York Jets 17

San Diego Chargers 14

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Indianapolis Colts 30

New York Jets 17

Jan 24

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 34

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Jan 9

Arizona Cardinals 51

Green Bay Packers 45

Jan 10

Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints 45

Arizona Cardinals 14

Jan 16

Minnesota Vikings 34

Dallas Cowboys 3

Jan 17

Conference Championship

New Orleans Saints 31

Minnesota Vikings 28

Jan 24

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints 31

Indianapolis Colts 17

Feb 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1671	13	10.11	+2.89	97.32%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1671	13	10.98	+2.02	93.09%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1664	14	11.25	+2.75	97.76%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1646	11	10.81	+0.19	64.19%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1637	10	10.24	-0.24	55.20%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1629	11	8.87	+2.13	92.14%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1616	9	10.63	-1.63	26.13%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1615	9	11.07	-2.07	18.92%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1611	11	9.17	+1.83	89.44%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1609	12	10.59	+1.41	85.48%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1589	9	8.29	+0.71	73.94%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1562	8	6.94	+1.06	79.61%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1555	9	8.53	+0.47	69.47%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1548	9	8.06	+0.94	77.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1548	10	9.96	+0.04	61.08%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1539	8	8.51	-0.51	49.85%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1506	8	9.34	-1.34	32.90%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1491	10	7.73	+2.27	93.97%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1489	8	7.64	+0.36	68.39%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1477	7	7.36	-0.36	53.58%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1457	7	7.88	-0.88	42.38%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1449	8	7.53	+0.47	70.13%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1411	6	6.16	-0.16	58.31%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1404	4	6.68	-2.68	11.34%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1397	7	6.99	+0.01	61.39%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1384	3	5.17	-2.17	18.32%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1376	5	5.19	-0.19	58.11%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1356	5	6.93	-1.93	22.26%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1332	4	4.60	-0.60	49.58%	0	2	3	5	6	8	12
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1316	5	5.23	-0.23	57.26%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1226	2	4.03	-2.03	17.86%	0	1	3	4	5	7	12
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1217	1	3.52	-2.52	9.88%	0	1	2	3	5	6	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (3.0 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (3.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	2-2 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	0-4 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.39%	0.59%	1.37%	1.56%	1.56%	0.78%	0.59%	6.84%
7–13	0.59%	2.34%	4.49%	3.71%	2.93%	1.95%	1.56%	17.58%
14–20	1.37%	4.49%	7.81%	6.05%	3.71%	1.17%	0.39%	25.00%
21–27	1.56%	3.71%	6.05%	5.86%	4.10%	1.37%	0.98%	23.63%
28–34	1.56%	2.93%	3.71%	4.10%	1.95%	1.17%	0.20%	15.62%
35–41	0.78%	1.95%	1.17%	1.37%	1.17%	0.78%	0.20%	7.42%
42+	0.59%	1.56%	0.39%	0.98%	0.20%	0.20%	—	3.91%
Total	6.84%	17.58%	25.00%	23.63%	15.62%	7.42%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.47	21.47	+0.00
SD	10.72	10.72	16.61
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	59	59	+59
Min	0	0	-59

Games Played: 256

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.44	20.31	+3.12
SD	9.60	8.10	15.26
CV	0.41	0.40	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	7	3	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.69	20.31	+2.38
SD	9.55	11.32	16.11
CV	0.42	0.56	—
Max	45	37	+35
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.44	16.31	+8.12
SD	10.76	10.04	16.16
CV	0.44	0.62	—
Max	48	33	+45
Min	7	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.12	20.38	-4.25
SD	9.41	10.84	16.23
CV	0.58	0.53	—
Max	33	41	+23
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	19.25	+0.44
SD	10.06	8.58	15.26
CV	0.51	0.45	—
Max	41	38	+32
Min	6	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.44	23.44	-3.00
SD	11.92	11.11	17.11
CV	0.58	0.47	—
Max	48	45	+24
Min	6	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.06	18.19	+0.88
SD	10.03	9.01	15.47
CV	0.53	0.50	—
Max	45	37	+35
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.31	23.44	-8.12
SD	12.18	10.95	13.68
CV	0.80	0.47	—
Max	41	38	+14
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.56	15.62	+6.94
SD	9.60	9.56	10.83
CV	0.43	0.61	—
Max	38	33	+24
Min	7	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.38	20.25	+0.12
SD	10.28	11.87	17.80
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	44	44	+31
Min	3	3	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.38	30.88	-14.50
SD	9.84	10.30	11.63
CV	0.60	0.33	—
Max	38	48	+5
Min	0	14	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.81	18.56	+10.25
SD	7.57	12.75	15.22
CV	0.26	0.69	—
Max	48	38	+38
Min	17	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.25	20.81	+3.44
SD	7.76	8.63	12.25
CV	0.32	0.41	—
Max	34	35	+27
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	19.19	+6.81
SD	9.75	8.68	13.82
CV	0.38	0.45	—
Max	42	34	+36
Min	7	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.12	23.75	-5.62
SD	10.39	8.27	14.85
CV	0.57	0.35	—
Max	37	41	+20
Min	0	14	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	26.50	-8.12
SD	9.84	12.06	14.28
CV	0.54	0.46	—
Max	44	44	+20
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	56.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	24.38	-1.88
SD	8.27	8.52	10.73
CV	0.37	0.35	—
Max	38	46	+28
Min	7	10	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	43.75%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.38	19.50	+9.88
SD	9.30	9.51	16.12
CV	0.32	0.49	—
Max	44	36	+37
Min	7	7	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.69	17.81	+8.88
SD	11.34	10.92	18.56
CV	0.42	0.61	—
Max	59	38	+59
Min	9	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	50.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.88	21.31	+10.56
SD	11.66	7.79	12.20
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	48	34	+31
Min	10	7	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.12	26.69	-1.56
SD	12.16	14.33	21.72
CV	0.48	0.54	—
Max	45	48	+37
Min	6	0	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	14.75	+7.00
SD	8.84	10.67	16.01
CV	0.41	0.72	—
Max	38	31	+38
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.31	23.69	-11.38
SD	7.12	9.27	13.72
CV	0.58	0.39	—
Max	27	44	+4
Min	0	9	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.81	21.06	+5.75
SD	11.49	10.80	16.33
CV	0.43	0.51	—
Max	45	48	+28
Min	0	7	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	20.25	+2.75
SD	8.91	7.07	7.40
CV	0.39	0.35	—
Max	38	36	+18
Min	6	10	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.38	20.00	+8.38
SD	7.09	9.14	13.30
CV	0.25	0.46	—
Max	43	38	+30
Min	20	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.62	17.56	+3.06
SD	6.75	12.80	16.37
CV	0.33	0.73	—
Max	35	45	+35
Min	10	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	24.38	-6.88
SD	10.37	12.82	21.21
CV	0.59	0.53	—
Max	41	48	+41
Min	3	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.94	27.25	-16.31
SD	6.69	10.94	14.24
CV	0.61	0.40	—
Max	23	47	+7
Min	0	9	-40

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	25.00	-9.75
SD	9.69	8.56	13.41
CV	0.64	0.34	—
Max	38	38	+17
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	25.12	-3.00
SD	12.19	13.33	22.46
CV	0.55	0.53	—
Max	47	59	+40
Min	0	7	-59

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	21.00	-4.38
SD	9.11	10.02	11.79
CV	0.55	0.48	—
Max	34	45	+21
Min	0	7	-33

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	13	10.11	+2.89
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	11.25	+2.75
3	Cincinnati Bengals	10	7.73	+2.27
4	Dallas Cowboys	11	8.87	+2.13
5	New Orleans Saints	13	10.98	+2.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	4	6.68	-2.68
2	St. Louis Rams	1	3.52	-2.52
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	5.17	-2.17
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	11.07	-2.07
5	Detroit Lions	2	4.03	-2.03

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	13	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 285
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	Sep 13 – Dec 17	1 in 231
3	San Diego Chargers	11	Oct 25 – Jan 3	1 in 121
4	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 13 – Oct 19	1 in 103
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	Sep 20 – Oct 11	1 in 93

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Nov 15 – Dec 10	1 in 2,235
2	New Orleans Saints	3	Dec 19 – Jan 3	1 in 103
3	Tennessee Titans	6	Sep 10 – Oct 18	1 in 72
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	Sep 13 – Oct 25	1 in 28
5	Indianapolis Colts	2	Dec 27 – Jan 3	1 in 23

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	66.15%	22.79%	8.54%	2.51%
New York Jets	19.72%	38.48%	27.61%	14.19%
Miami Dolphins	10.56%	26.20%	36.54%	26.70%
Buffalo Bills	3.57%	12.52%	27.31%	56.60%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.54%	37.35%	8.35%	0.77%
Baltimore Ravens	42.13%	45.13%	11.57%	1.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.12%	15.66%	63.67%	16.56%
Cleveland Browns	0.21%	1.86%	16.42%	81.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	74.18%	18.13%	6.09%	1.61%
Tennessee Titans	13.21%	37.44%	30.36%	18.99%
Houston Texans	9.15%	28.92%	34.98%	26.95%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.46%	15.52%	28.56%	52.46%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	78.27%	18.05%	3.13%	0.55%
Denver Broncos	18.03%	55.67%	19.72%	6.58%
Oakland Raiders	2.44%	16.43%	44.37%	36.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.26%	9.84%	32.78%	56.12%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	57.19%	26.57%	12.75%	3.49%
New York Giants	23.27%	34.44%	29.66%	12.63%
Dallas Cowboys	17.34%	30.57%	35.75%	16.34%
Washington Redskins	2.20%	8.42%	21.84%	67.54%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	63.38%	26.69%	9.44%	0.49%
Green Bay Packers	26.37%	43.96%	27.08%	2.59%
Chicago Bears	10.11%	28.08%	54.64%	7.16%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	1.26%	8.84%	89.75%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	77.29%	18.19%	4.02%	0.50%
Atlanta Falcons	16.76%	50.81%	25.06%	7.36%
Carolina Panthers	5.23%	24.28%	46.85%	23.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.71%	6.72%	24.07%	68.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	72.22%	20.63%	6.69%	0.46%
San Francisco 49ers	17.15%	44.59%	33.36%	4.90%
Seattle Seahawks	10.39%	32.37%	47.96%	9.29%
St. Louis Rams	0.24%	2.41%	11.99%	85.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Indianapolis Colts	26.94%	21.84%	15.56%	10.90%	7.68%	5.70%	3.94%	2.66%	1.85%	1.24%	0.77%	0.47%	0.28%	0.13%	0.04%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.66%	18.44%	14.56%	11.95%	10.00%	7.51%	5.14%	3.10%	2.22%	1.49%	0.95%	0.49%	0.26%	0.15%	0.06%	0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	17.99%	15.02%	13.48%	12.83%	12.09%	9.31%	6.64%	4.59%	3.06%	2.11%	1.30%	0.81%	0.40%	0.21%	0.14%	0.03%
New England Patriots	12.30%	14.72%	15.85%	13.84%	10.81%	8.61%	7.02%	5.20%	3.76%	2.81%	2.04%	1.38%	0.86%	0.49%	0.22%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	10.40%	13.49%	15.84%	15.64%	12.07%	8.93%	7.01%	5.50%	3.99%	2.63%	1.84%	1.23%	0.73%	0.38%	0.23%	0.08%
Tennessee Titans	2.62%	4.11%	5.22%	6.99%	9.04%	10.64%	10.51%	9.91%	9.11%	8.28%	7.08%	5.89%	4.55%	3.28%	2.04%	0.74%
New York Jets	1.64%	3.43%	5.34%	6.93%	8.15%	9.74%	10.97%	9.95%	9.20%	8.39%	7.67%	6.14%	5.06%	3.72%	2.57%	1.09%
Houston Texans	1.43%	2.62%	3.73%	5.22%	7.11%	8.94%	9.38%	9.73%	9.74%	9.43%	8.83%	7.54%	6.45%	5.06%	3.35%	1.44%
Denver Broncos	0.84%	1.80%	2.98%	4.30%	5.76%	7.20%	9.05%	11.81%	11.08%	10.11%	8.97%	8.48%	6.54%	5.04%	3.57%	2.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.84%	1.47%	2.34%	3.52%	5.49%	6.72%	8.18%	9.89%	12.10%	12.58%	11.40%	8.73%	6.66%	4.99%	3.43%	1.67%
Miami Dolphins	0.84%	1.66%	2.67%	3.63%	5.09%	6.55%	7.70%	8.46%	9.19%	9.74%	10.08%	9.41%	8.39%	7.35%	6.02%	3.22%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.34%	0.84%	1.36%	2.21%	3.37%	4.84%	6.17%	7.22%	8.55%	9.52%	10.40%	11.04%	11.40%	10.12%	8.12%	4.50%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%	0.38%	0.71%	1.23%	1.87%	2.80%	4.02%	4.95%	6.22%	7.75%	9.28%	10.63%	12.35%	13.90%	13.82%	9.97%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.08%	0.20%	0.39%	0.73%	1.17%	1.96%	3.21%	4.11%	5.53%	7.71%	10.88%	12.92%	14.58%	15.98%	20.54%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.07%	0.09%	0.24%	0.43%	0.77%	1.30%	2.07%	3.37%	4.79%	6.51%	8.75%	12.34%	16.66%	21.11%	21.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.18%	0.32%	0.56%	1.01%	1.77%	2.45%	3.60%	5.17%	8.15%	10.81%	13.93%	19.28%	32.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New Orleans Saints	23.61%	20.13%	16.73%	12.16%	8.07%	6.16%	4.68%	3.09%	2.10%	1.40%	0.89%	0.56%	0.26%	0.11%	0.04%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.56%	17.05%	13.61%	11.11%	9.12%	7.07%	5.42%	4.16%	3.16%	2.31%	1.53%	0.97%	0.59%	0.24%	0.08%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	18.32%	17.51%	15.27%	12.00%	9.42%	7.69%	6.19%	4.58%	3.30%	2.38%	1.61%	0.97%	0.45%	0.22%	0.07%	0.02%
Arizona Cardinals	10.59%	13.11%	14.32%	14.65%	11.09%	8.79%	7.33%	6.26%	4.62%	3.31%	2.47%	1.83%	1.04%	0.37%	0.15%	0.05%
New York Giants	7.68%	7.86%	8.28%	9.43%	10.85%	10.02%	8.96%	8.61%	7.83%	6.49%	5.13%	3.87%	2.87%	1.48%	0.52%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	5.34%	7.27%	8.52%	9.57%	10.54%	11.12%	10.50%	8.70%	7.91%	6.97%	5.46%	3.82%	2.24%	1.24%	0.59%	0.21%
Dallas Cowboys	4.36%	5.69%	6.71%	8.03%	9.55%	9.74%	9.64%	9.51%	9.57%	8.10%	6.41%	5.12%	4.07%	2.30%	0.94%	0.26%
Atlanta Falcons	3.07%	4.39%	5.66%	7.02%	9.05%	10.32%	11.12%	10.09%	9.20%	8.36%	7.20%	5.71%	4.39%	2.79%	1.27%	0.37%
Chicago Bears	1.37%	2.43%	3.48%	4.53%	6.20%	7.69%	8.49%	9.51%	10.54%	11.85%	11.30%	9.60%	6.45%	3.66%	2.08%	0.83%
San Francisco 49ers	0.90%	1.95%	3.15%	4.59%	5.71%	7.33%	9.09%	10.69%	10.73%	10.45%	10.30%	10.14%	7.34%	4.39%	2.23%	1.00%
Seattle Seahawks	0.34%	0.89%	1.56%	2.64%	3.52%	4.77%	6.36%	8.52%	9.13%	10.34%	12.13%	13.73%	11.59%	7.37%	4.55%	2.58%
Carolina Panthers	0.58%	1.04%	1.58%	2.40%	3.69%	4.76%	5.90%	7.28%	8.92%	10.65%	12.26%	12.01%	11.43%	9.14%	5.94%	2.41%
Washington Redskins	0.25%	0.55%	0.94%	1.45%	2.37%	3.25%	4.19%	5.66%	7.64%	9.25%	11.12%	13.55%	17.15%	12.38%	7.19%	3.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.10%	0.17%	0.36%	0.66%	1.00%	1.58%	2.43%	3.60%	5.17%	7.22%	9.52%	14.31%	20.88%	20.19%	12.79%
Detroit Lions	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.18%	0.34%	0.53%	1.05%	1.81%	2.82%	4.76%	9.12%	19.69%	29.46%	30.06%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.11%	0.22%	0.39%	0.70%	1.16%	2.15%	3.83%	6.71%	13.73%	24.70%	46.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Indianapolis Colts	15.47%	13.04%	11.15%	9.81%	8.09%	6.97%	5.74%	5.14%	4.11%	3.68%	3.07%	2.44%	2.18%	1.84%	1.53%	1.15%	1.04%	0.81%	0.72%	0.50%	0.42%	0.31%	0.26%	0.17%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	11.63%	11.60%	9.93%	10.06%	8.14%	8.24%	6.19%	6.05%	4.45%	4.11%	3.33%	3.09%	2.43%	2.29%	1.65%	1.49%	1.08%	1.04%	0.77%	0.68%	0.46%	0.38%	0.29%	0.23%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.75%	11.20%	10.13%	8.45%	7.78%	6.80%	6.23%	5.45%	4.90%	4.46%	3.80%	3.47%	2.63%	2.30%	1.65%	1.49%	1.18%	1.09%	0.78%	0.65%	0.49%	0.42%	0.27%	0.21%	0.13%	0.10%	0.08%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.14%	11.19%	8.79%	8.79%	7.22%	6.98%	6.06%	5.54%	4.91%	4.42%	3.81%	3.37%	2.97%	2.57%	2.24%	1.79%	1.69%	1.35%	1.27%	0.89%	0.76%	0.62%	0.50%	0.36%	0.30%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	8.99%	9.09%	8.48%	8.71%	7.71%	7.46%	6.21%	5.96%	5.03%	4.82%	4.16%	3.77%	3.18%	3.00%	2.42%	2.19%	1.71%	1.62%	1.25%	1.02%	0.78%	0.76%	0.47%	0.44%	0.26%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	9.95%	8.54%	8.34%	7.29%	7.41%	6.60%	6.84%	5.74%	5.97%	5.36%	4.49%	4.29%	3.39%	3.18%	2.40%	2.20%	1.64%	1.52%	1.12%	0.89%	0.71%	0.62%	0.47%	0.33%	0.22%	0.18%	0.13%	0.08%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	6.48%	6.67%	7.50%	7.31%	7.49%	7.34%	6.60%	6.64%	5.50%	5.34%	4.59%	4.25%	3.71%	3.28%	2.99%	2.36%	2.26%	1.76%	1.61%	1.31%	1.20%	0.95%	0.77%	0.61%	0.46%	0.34%	0.28%	0.17%	0.11%	0.07%	0.03%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	5.62%	5.77%	6.85%	6.68%	7.48%	7.44%	7.08%	7.41%	5.61%	6.07%	4.51%	4.71%	3.60%	3.50%	2.90%	3.00%	2.19%	1.96%	1.53%	1.44%	1.15%	0.83%	0.77%	0.53%	0.43%	0.33%	0.24%	0.16%	0.13%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	4.81%	5.56%	6.20%	6.63%	6.79%	7.26%	6.69%	7.29%	5.50%	5.75%	4.57%	4.81%	3.83%	3.79%	3.13%	3.19%	2.45%	2.31%	1.74%	1.70%	1.38%	1.22%	0.90%	0.86%	0.51%	0.48%	0.24%	0.19%	0.12%	0.05%	0.04%	<0.01%
New York Giants	2.95%	3.88%	4.07%	4.12%	4.51%	4.43%	5.14%	4.77%	5.72%	5.10%	5.22%	4.84%	5.08%	4.38%	4.54%	4.05%	4.07%	3.48%	3.33%	2.96%	2.63%	2.35%	1.97%	1.74%	1.40%	1.13%	0.78%	0.66%	0.32%	0.23%	0.11%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	2.18%	2.84%	3.50%	3.85%	4.29%	4.52%	4.92%	4.90%	5.44%	5.33%	5.40%	5.48%	5.27%	5.14%	4.46%	4.40%	3.98%	3.86%	3.45%	3.23%	2.72%	2.58%	1.82%	1.87%	1.19%	1.19%	0.70%	0.59%	0.39%	0.26%	0.14%	0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	1.59%	2.26%	2.66%	3.10%	3.47%	3.60%	4.19%	4.28%	4.92%	4.76%	5.09%	4.83%	5.22%	4.98%	4.96%	4.54%	4.79%	4.47%	4.05%	3.71%	3.34%	2.95%	2.69%	2.32%	1.92%	1.77%	1.20%	1.00%	0.58%	0.46%	0.21%	0.10%
Atlanta Falcons	1.08%	1.58%	2.04%	2.34%	2.82%	3.09%	3.59%	3.86%	4.56%	4.55%	5.05%	5.14%	5.41%	5.36%	5.10%	4.94%	4.64%	4.60%	4.41%	3.97%	3.84%	3.27%	2.98%	2.71%	2.32%	2.05%	1.55%	1.29%	0.82%	0.62%	0.28%	0.15%
Tennessee Titans	1.10%	1.40%	2.00%	2.15%	2.88%	2.77%	3.68%	3.55%	4.55%	4.43%	5.15%	5.02%	5.17%	5.08%	5.17%	4.72%	4.87%	4.45%	4.42%	4.06%	3.90%	3.41%	3.33%	2.76%	2.55%	2.02%	1.79%	1.36%	1.06%	0.67%	0.40%	0.10%
New York Jets	0.71%	1.02%	1.59%	2.00%	2.43%	2.78%	3.34%	3.63%	3.83%	4.21%	4.69%	4.78%	5.16%	5.18%	5.17%	4.99%	4.88%	4.56%	4.60%	4.11%	4.22%	3.67%	3.51%	2.98%	2.85%	2.32%	2.16%	1.64%	1.34%	0.90%	0.55%	0.21%
Houston Texans	0.56%	0.83%	1.23%	1.48%	1.83%	2.13%	2.52%	2.94%	3.41%	3.64%	4.28%	4.38%	4.76%	4.63%	5.05%	4.75%	5.19%	4.61%	5.15%	4.52%	4.67%	4.19%	4.33%	3.49%	3.65%	2.99%	2.79%	2.09%	1.70%	1.16%	0.74%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	0.41%	0.74%	1.01%	1.35%	1.62%	1.89%	2.40%	2.38%	3.12%	3.26%	3.83%	3.94%	4.34%	4.53%	4.71%	4.99%	5.07%	5.44%	5.41%	5.67%	5.15%	5.64%	4.27%	4.80%	3.27%	3.27%	2.29%	1.92%	1.31%	1.07%	0.56%	0.36%
San Francisco 49ers	0.26%	0.49%	0.71%	1.13%	1.31%	1.72%	2.04%	2.43%	2.79%	3.02%	3.56%	3.96%	4.38%	4.54%	5.02%	5.47%	4.96%	5.49%	5.06%	5.44%	4.96%	5.20%	4.61%	4.98%	3.73%	3.87%	2.56%	2.41%	1.58%	1.22%	0.65%	0.45%
Denver Broncos	0.30%	0.46%	0.82%	0.94%	1.39%	1.50%	1.98%	2.15%	2.71%	3.00%	3.40%	3.74%	4.12%	4.59%	4.78%	6.02%	4.96%	5.75%	4.92%	5.75%	4.70%	4.86%	4.45%	4.60%	3.76%	3.38%	3.07%	2.48%	2.20%	1.39%	1.29%	0.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.29%	0.48%	0.71%	0.85%	1.19%	1.39%	1.80%	1.92%	2.65%	2.92%	3.28%	3.62%	4.01%	4.46%	4.66%	5.12%	5.73%	6.17%	5.79%	6.15%	5.60%	5.65%	4.78%	4.28%	3.93%	3.12%	3.02%	2.14%	1.98%	1.14%	0.88%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	0.32%	0.44%	0.78%	0.84%	1.28%	1.33%	1.75%	1.89%	2.46%	2.57%	3.20%	3.18%	3.68%	3.82%	4.32%	4.25%	4.72%	4.53%	4.89%	5.00%	5.19%	5.14%	5.06%	4.85%	4.64%	4.18%	4.05%	3.54%	3.21%	2.46%	1.63%	0.82%
Seattle Seahawks	0.07%	0.21%	0.30%	0.47%	0.61%	0.86%	1.15%	1.43%	1.60%	1.90%	2.31%	2.65%	2.92%	3.36%	3.85%	4.47%	4.19%	4.84%	4.89%	5.48%	5.39%	6.15%	5.98%	6.88%	5.39%	6.00%	4.26%	4.04%	2.86%	2.54%	1.71%	1.24%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.28%	0.41%	0.55%	0.69%	0.92%	1.18%	1.21%	1.84%	1.85%	2.44%	2.38%	3.04%	3.07%	3.77%	3.72%	4.49%	4.44%	5.27%	5.17%	5.63%	5.78%	5.72%	5.91%	5.41%	5.77%	4.68%	4.67%	3.35%	3.19%	1.85%	1.16%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.10%	0.22%	0.38%	0.46%	0.64%	0.76%	1.04%	1.25%	1.59%	1.86%	2.30%	2.50%	2.91%	3.30%	3.58%	3.67%	4.48%	4.37%	4.89%	4.84%	5.57%	5.30%	6.04%	5.25%	6.18%	5.43%	5.68%	4.42%	4.45%	3.01%	2.39%	1.11%
Washington Redskins	0.06%	0.11%	0.19%	0.29%	0.40%	0.53%	0.68%	0.87%	1.08%	1.37%	1.53%	1.86%	2.10%	2.51%	2.87%	3.05%	3.82%	4.22%	4.58%	4.93%	5.43%	5.94%	6.30%	6.68%	7.38%	7.46%	6.18%	5.87%	4.26%	3.65%	2.28%	1.54%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.07%	0.15%	0.21%	0.31%	0.38%	0.51%	0.67%	0.81%	1.00%	1.30%	1.47%	1.82%	2.03%	2.45%	2.51%	3.08%	3.38%	3.81%	4.09%	4.79%	4.86%	5.76%	5.53%	6.74%	6.48%	7.34%	6.90%	7.42%	5.85%	5.19%	3.08%
Oakland Raiders	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.10%	0.14%	0.20%	0.28%	0.39%	0.50%	0.59%	0.77%	1.03%	1.34%	1.60%	1.80%	2.11%	2.62%	3.00%	3.68%	4.09%	5.16%	5.82%	6.51%	7.04%	7.89%	8.12%	9.27%	8.31%	10.19%	7.33%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.18%	0.28%	0.36%	0.44%	0.55%	0.72%	0.81%	1.22%	1.28%	1.76%	1.86%	2.46%	2.68%	3.38%	3.67%	4.57%	4.94%	6.25%	7.32%	8.16%	10.29%	8.79%	11.26%	8.56%	7.78%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.05%	0.10%	0.14%	0.20%	0.22%	0.37%	0.43%	0.63%	0.69%	0.94%	1.16%	1.60%	1.76%	2.30%	2.60%	3.34%	3.71%	4.53%	4.91%	6.55%	6.74%	8.93%	8.65%	11.09%	9.80%	10.64%	7.80%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.07%	0.12%	0.16%	0.23%	0.31%	0.39%	0.52%	0.73%	0.89%	0.97%	1.23%	1.69%	1.98%	2.47%	2.79%	3.79%	4.39%	5.35%	5.91%	7.69%	8.07%	11.02%	10.60%	15.66%	12.85%
Detroit Lions	—	—	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.10%	0.12%	0.17%	0.22%	0.34%	0.44%	0.54%	0.78%	1.02%	1.22%	1.59%	2.09%	2.60%	3.78%	4.90%	7.01%	9.73%	11.47%	15.79%	15.66%	20.18%
St. Louis Rams	—	—	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.11%	0.15%	0.22%	0.26%	0.36%	0.46%	0.58%	0.84%	1.09%	1.55%	1.96%	2.67%	3.62%	4.88%	7.20%	8.95%	14.14%	18.28%	32.42%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts	26.94%	23.22%	15.84%	8.17%	7.10%	6.67%	12.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.66%	16.37%	9.18%	4.33%	21.14%	10.32%	15.01%
Baltimore Ravens	17.99%	12.74%	7.62%	3.77%	24.47%	12.67%	20.73%
New England Patriots	12.30%	16.02%	20.39%	17.44%	4.61%	6.48%	22.76%
San Diego Chargers	10.40%	14.46%	21.33%	32.08%	1.70%	2.74%	17.28%
Tennessee Titans	2.62%	4.04%	3.87%	2.68%	10.44%	12.87%	63.48%
New York Jets	1.64%	3.75%	6.88%	7.45%	5.72%	9.37%	65.20%
Houston Texans	1.43%	2.73%	2.89%	2.10%	7.41%	10.59%	72.85%
Denver Broncos	0.84%	2.00%	4.37%	10.82%	2.75%	5.11%	74.12%
Miami Dolphins	0.84%	1.88%	3.54%	4.30%	3.58%	5.96%	79.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.84%	1.26%	1.20%	0.82%	6.27%	7.71%	81.91%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.34%	0.89%	1.19%	1.04%	2.99%	5.33%	88.22%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%	0.43%	1.12%	1.90%	1.05%	2.38%	93.00%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.09%	0.38%	1.94%	0.28%	0.74%	96.54%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.08%	0.40%	0.73%	98.66%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	0.04%	0.14%	1.08%	0.10%	0.32%	98.32%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New Orleans Saints	23.61%	20.89%	19.47%	13.32%	5.21%	5.00%	12.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.56%	16.27%	11.62%	5.74%	14.31%	8.79%	19.71%
Minnesota Vikings	18.32%	18.12%	15.78%	11.16%	8.64%	8.04%	19.94%
Arizona Cardinals	10.59%	14.01%	17.79%	29.83%	2.27%	3.48%	22.02%
New York Giants	7.68%	6.89%	5.67%	3.02%	16.61%	12.22%	47.90%
Green Bay Packers	5.34%	7.27%	7.43%	6.33%	11.87%	12.82%	48.94%
Dallas Cowboys	4.36%	5.07%	4.92%	2.99%	13.29%	11.50%	57.87%
Atlanta Falcons	3.07%	4.18%	5.17%	4.35%	10.43%	11.36%	61.45%
Chicago Bears	1.37%	2.51%	3.13%	3.10%	6.09%	8.28%	75.52%
San Francisco 49ers	0.90%	2.12%	4.08%	10.04%	3.08%	5.60%	74.17%
Carolina Panthers	0.58%	1.05%	1.69%	1.92%	3.50%	4.84%	86.43%
Seattle Seahawks	0.34%	0.97%	2.21%	6.86%	1.61%	3.46%	84.54%
Washington Redskins	0.25%	0.53%	0.74%	0.68%	2.43%	3.38%	91.98%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.10%	0.21%	0.36%	0.58%	0.99%	97.73%
Detroit Lions	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%	0.16%	99.64%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.21%	0.02%	0.07%	99.67%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	73.74%	73.74%	46.37%	27.73%	14.79%
Indianapolis Colts	74.42%	74.42%	44.00%	24.80%	13.54%
San Diego Chargers	64.59%	64.59%	36.43%	20.27%	11.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.42%	64.42%	37.80%	20.88%	10.75%
New England Patriots	58.98%	58.98%	30.63%	15.60%	8.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.17%	63.17%	32.08%	15.45%	7.65%
Minnesota Vikings	61.52%	61.52%	32.47%	16.01%	7.45%
Baltimore Ravens	54.67%	54.67%	27.55%	13.22%	6.55%
Green Bay Packers	38.45%	33.14%	16.55%	8.03%	3.83%
Dallas Cowboys	32.70%	27.22%	14.18%	7.31%	3.70%
Arizona Cardinals	53.38%	52.71%	21.52%	8.65%	3.42%
New York Jets	29.41%	19.86%	8.65%	3.65%	1.73%
Atlanta Falcons	31.31%	21.04%	8.87%	3.73%	1.50%
New York Giants	37.52%	28.55%	10.53%	3.78%	1.33%
Tennessee Titans	29.86%	17.99%	6.77%	2.60%	1.06%
Houston Texans	22.99%	13.05%	4.91%	1.89%	0.84%
Carolina Panthers	11.95%	7.00%	2.97%	1.28%	0.55%
San Francisco 49ers	22.81%	11.99%	3.91%	1.25%	0.40%
Chicago Bears	20.61%	10.45%	3.17%	0.97%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	17.38%	8.62%	2.57%	0.79%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	16.00%	6.96%	2.18%	0.70%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	23.04%	10.44%	2.70%	0.69%	0.21%
Jacksonville Jaguars	10.55%	3.55%	0.76%	0.18%	0.05%
Washington Redskins	7.23%	2.65%	0.60%	0.16%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	6.46%	2.24%	0.53%	0.12%	0.04%
Seattle Seahawks	14.15%	4.85%	0.93%	0.19%	0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.14%	0.64%	0.13%	0.02%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	3.35%	0.75%	0.11%	0.03%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	1.27%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.64%	0.39%	0.06%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.34%	0.06%	<0.01%	—	—
St. Louis Rams	0.32%	0.04%	<0.01%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.64%	0.82%	0.08%	2.71%	1.21%	1.76%	0.73%	0.29%	1.43%	3.15%	1.87%	0.55%	2.87%	4.17%	1.66%
Buffalo Bills	0.22%		0.10%	0.01%	0.13%	0.13%	0.12%	0.06%	<0.01%	0.07%	0.21%	0.08%	0.02%	0.21%	0.14%	0.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.36%	0.15%		0.01%	0.53%	0.21%	0.38%	0.14%	0.06%	0.32%	0.72%	0.32%	0.10%	0.46%	0.83%	0.28%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.31%	0.17%	0.51%	0.05%		0.57%	0.52%	0.35%	0.03%	0.42%	0.53%	0.47%	0.05%	1.15%	0.67%	0.80%
Houston Texans	0.77%	0.23%	0.29%	0.03%	0.78%		1.08%	0.18%	0.08%	0.60%	1.37%	0.73%	0.14%	0.89%	1.33%	0.40%
Indianapolis Colts	2.97%	0.68%	1.49%	0.11%	1.70%	2.28%		1.31%	0.12%	1.57%	2.23%	2.20%	0.26%	2.50%	1.79%	3.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.23%	0.07%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.24%	0.08%	0.26%		0.02%	0.14%	0.31%	0.19%	0.05%	0.22%	0.31%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.06%	<0.01%	0.03%		<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.06%	0.02%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	0.68%	0.09%	0.35%	0.04%	0.46%	0.43%	0.54%	0.28%	0.05%		0.76%	0.32%	0.09%	0.67%	0.55%	0.59%
New England Patriots	4.57%	0.82%	2.22%	0.19%	1.69%	2.87%	2.10%	1.59%	0.10%	2.02%		3.17%	0.25%	3.82%	1.55%	3.69%
New York Jets	1.91%	0.22%	0.73%	0.08%	0.98%	1.00%	1.29%	0.62%	0.08%	0.56%	2.20%		0.15%	1.78%	1.47%	1.41%
Oakland Raiders	0.13%	0.01%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.03%		0.10%	0.04%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.04%	0.60%	0.99%	0.10%	2.53%	1.34%	1.66%	0.81%	0.25%	1.36%	2.85%	1.90%	0.47%		3.57%	1.65%
San Diego Chargers	7.32%	0.76%	3.05%	0.25%	2.54%	3.51%	2.28%	1.86%	0.13%	2.16%	2.16%	2.70%	0.32%	6.04%		4.63%
Tennessee Titans	1.02%	0.31%	0.41%	0.03%	1.10%	0.41%	1.44%	0.24%	0.07%	0.76%	1.68%	0.91%	0.24%	1.03%	1.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		3.09%	1.03%	2.59%	2.84%	0.04%	3.35%	2.37%	1.24%	4.63%	2.55%	1.86%	1.26%	0.02%	0.27%	0.96%
Atlanta Falcons	2.42%		0.20%	0.83%	0.95%	0.03%	1.15%	1.58%	1.66%	1.52%	1.25%	0.98%	0.81%	0.03%	0.05%	0.33%
Carolina Panthers	0.92%	0.22%		0.34%	0.35%	0.01%	0.45%	0.57%	0.62%	0.57%	0.49%	0.40%	0.28%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	1.21%	0.51%	0.18%		0.40%	<0.01%	0.38%	0.80%	0.54%	0.73%	0.53%	0.55%	0.48%	0.02%	0.05%	0.18%
Dallas Cowboys	3.44%	1.43%	0.53%	1.06%		0.03%	1.45%	2.10%	1.85%	1.25%	1.76%	1.43%	1.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.25%
Detroit Lions	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	3.59%	1.61%	0.66%	0.94%	1.41%	0.02%		3.16%	1.90%	2.13%	1.74%	1.59%	1.19%	0.02%	0.13%	0.44%
Minnesota Vikings	2.89%	2.45%	0.92%	2.14%	2.18%	0.03%	3.18%		1.58%	3.31%	2.11%	1.91%	1.38%	0.03%	0.21%	0.76%
New Orleans Saints	2.19%	3.51%	1.27%	2.32%	3.02%	0.05%	3.20%	2.53%		4.19%	2.75%	1.69%	1.22%	0.02%	0.29%	1.00%
New York Giants	2.91%	1.07%	0.42%	0.88%	0.64%	0.03%	1.11%	1.52%	1.38%		1.26%	1.24%	1.10%	0.04%	0.12%	0.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.62%	2.34%	0.92%	1.67%	2.02%	0.03%	2.26%	2.38%	2.03%	3.07%		1.88%	1.44%	0.04%	0.22%	0.66%
San Francisco 49ers	1.20%	0.80%	0.28%	0.76%	0.73%	0.01%	0.86%	0.94%	0.54%	1.34%	0.88%		0.25%	<0.01%	0.09%	0.26%
Seattle Seahawks	0.42%	0.33%	0.11%	0.32%	0.28%	<0.01%	0.35%	0.33%	0.19%	0.58%	0.32%	0.14%		<0.01%	0.04%	0.12%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.05%	0.05%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%			0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.38%	0.14%	0.06%	0.14%	0.06%	<0.01%	0.13%	0.21%	0.18%	0.14%	0.14%	0.14%	0.15%	<0.01%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.26%	0.61%	0.03%	1.20%	1.19%	4.61%	0.41%	0.05%	0.95%	4.27%	1.65%	0.11%	6.12%	4.49%	1.59%
Buffalo Bills	0.08%		0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.13%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.11%	0.07%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.31%	0.02%			0.08%	0.05%	0.43%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.07%	0.35%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.34%	0.30%	0.10%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.43%	0.03%	0.06%	<0.01%		0.11%	0.56%	0.05%		0.09%	0.41%	0.15%		0.49%	0.15%	0.17%
Houston Texans	0.64%	0.04%	0.09%	<0.01%	0.22%		0.81%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.14%	0.83%	0.25%	<0.01%	0.95%	0.77%	0.13%
Indianapolis Colts	6.10%	0.52%	1.26%	0.07%	2.16%	1.83%		0.53%	0.11%	1.72%	8.45%	3.38%	0.18%	6.60%	8.50%	2.60%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.10%	<0.01%	0.02%		0.03%	<0.01%	0.11%		<0.01%	0.03%	0.13%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.14%	0.12%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.43%	<0.01%	0.05%	<0.01%	0.11%	0.10%	0.55%	0.03%	<0.01%		0.22%	0.04%	0.02%	0.48%	0.36%	0.17%
New England Patriots	4.60%	0.11%	0.79%	0.06%	1.32%	1.33%	7.02%	0.48%	0.04%	0.53%		1.06%	0.11%	5.75%	5.54%	1.89%
New York Jets	1.38%	0.01%	0.16%	0.01%	0.29%	0.29%	2.04%	0.11%	0.01%	0.10%	0.77%		0.02%	1.75%	1.27%	0.44%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%			<0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%		0.03%	<0.01%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.26%	0.31%	0.76%	0.04%	1.48%	1.55%	4.87%	0.53%	0.08%	1.13%	5.28%	2.12%	0.12%		5.60%	1.94%
San Diego Chargers	5.76%	0.34%	0.83%	0.03%	0.53%	1.51%	8.04%	0.53%	0.01%	1.07%	6.43%	2.09%	0.02%	7.11%		2.12%
Tennessee Titans	1.01%	0.06%	0.13%	<0.01%	0.30%	0.13%	1.21%	0.05%	0.01%	0.21%	1.13%	0.33%	0.03%	1.19%	0.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.46%	0.47%	0.96%	1.55%	<0.01%	2.11%	4.26%	4.08%	2.11%	3.59%	0.39%	0.17%		0.08%	0.27%
Atlanta Falcons	1.49%		0.07%	0.29%	0.45%	<0.01%	0.72%	1.56%	1.39%	0.83%	1.47%	0.31%	0.18%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.08%
Carolina Panthers	0.47%	0.08%		0.10%	0.14%	<0.01%	0.26%	0.55%	0.42%	0.28%	0.50%	0.12%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.55%	0.16%	0.06%		0.20%	<0.01%	0.14%	0.43%	0.56%	0.33%	0.50%	0.13%	0.08%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	2.28%	0.71%	0.26%	0.49%		<0.01%	0.99%	2.53%	2.59%	1.07%	2.45%	0.51%	0.19%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.08%
Detroit Lions				<0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	2.87%	0.99%	0.30%	0.29%	0.93%	<0.01%		2.50%	3.18%	1.49%	2.88%	0.62%	0.31%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.15%
Minnesota Vikings	6.27%	2.31%	0.74%	1.00%	2.49%	<0.01%	2.64%		6.01%	3.04%	5.11%	1.55%	0.77%	0.01%	0.11%	0.40%
New Orleans Saints	8.52%	2.94%	0.89%	2.01%	3.46%	0.01%	4.75%	8.35%		4.17%	7.38%	2.20%	1.05%	<0.01%	0.10%	0.53%
New York Giants	1.71%	0.64%	0.21%	0.46%	0.61%	<0.01%	0.94%	1.62%	1.67%		1.82%	0.48%	0.24%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.56%	2.62%	0.92%	1.44%	2.94%	0.01%	3.61%	6.15%	6.38%	4.15%		1.71%	0.86%	<0.01%	0.11%	0.34%
San Francisco 49ers	0.27%	0.17%	0.07%	0.16%	0.21%		0.32%	0.80%	0.77%	0.41%	0.66%		0.02%		<0.01%	0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.08%	0.18%	0.18%	0.08%	0.18%	0.01%			<0.01%	0.01%
St. Louis Rams								<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.11%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.05%	0.11%	0.12%	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.07%	0.14%	<0.01%	0.27%	0.55%	3.71%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.30%	2.41%	0.80%	0.01%	1.49%	2.61%	0.76%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%			<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	<0.01%			<0.01%	0.02%	0.18%	<0.01%		0.01%	0.12%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.09%	0.13%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%					<0.01%	<0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.11%	<0.01%	0.01%			0.02%	0.14%	<0.01%		0.02%	0.14%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.11%	0.05%	0.04%
Houston Texans	0.33%	<0.01%	0.04%		0.04%		0.30%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.26%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.36%	0.36%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	4.92%	0.10%	0.42%	0.02%	0.57%	0.57%		0.09%	0.03%	0.43%	4.46%	1.32%	0.02%	5.88%	5.26%	0.70%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%			<0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.03%	0.03%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs							<0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%	<0.01%	0.02%		0.03%	0.02%	0.14%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.08%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.17%	0.14%	0.03%
New England Patriots	2.77%	0.03%	0.26%	<0.01%	0.38%	0.46%	3.73%	0.09%	0.01%	0.18%		0.49%	0.01%	3.27%	3.24%	0.65%
New York Jets	0.60%	<0.01%	0.06%	<0.01%	0.09%	0.10%	0.80%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.33%		<0.01%	0.72%	0.75%	0.16%
Oakland Raiders	<0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.46%	0.07%	0.14%	<0.01%	0.37%	0.54%	4.61%	0.13%	<0.01%	0.30%	3.01%	0.87%	0.02%		3.10%	0.80%
San Diego Chargers	3.41%	0.10%	0.32%	0.01%	0.17%	0.68%	5.13%	0.12%	<0.01%	0.42%	3.80%	1.19%	<0.01%	3.97%		0.93%
Tennessee Titans	0.48%	<0.01%	0.07%	<0.01%	0.06%	0.05%	0.38%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.39%	0.12%	<0.01%	0.51%	0.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.47%	0.17%	0.18%	0.70%	<0.01%	0.78%	1.52%	2.18%	0.64%	1.80%	0.12%	0.03%		<0.01%	0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	0.51%		0.03%	0.09%	0.29%	<0.01%	0.34%	0.70%	0.54%	0.31%	0.76%	0.10%	0.03%		<0.01%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.20%	0.03%		0.04%	0.09%		0.11%	0.22%	0.17%	0.13%	0.26%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.13%	0.06%	0.02%		0.10%		0.05%	0.10%	0.22%	0.10%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%		<0.01%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	1.02%	0.45%	0.15%	0.20%		<0.01%	0.68%	1.38%	1.84%	0.31%	0.99%	0.20%	0.05%		0.01%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	1.03%	0.50%	0.17%	0.09%	0.61%			0.95%	1.98%	0.64%	1.75%	0.19%	0.06%		<0.01%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	2.07%	1.02%	0.29%	0.21%	1.31%		0.95%		4.36%	1.33%	3.80%	0.43%	0.14%		0.03%	0.09%
New Orleans Saints	4.20%	1.06%	0.32%	0.72%	2.42%	<0.01%	2.88%	5.92%		2.35%	6.68%	0.82%	0.21%		0.01%	0.14%
New York Giants	0.51%	0.22%	0.09%	0.11%	0.16%		0.38%	0.73%	0.97%		0.44%	0.11%	0.04%		<0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.10%	1.24%	0.41%	0.51%	1.06%		2.20%	4.63%	6.02%	0.86%		0.60%	0.16%		0.03%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.07%	0.03%	0.02%	0.11%		0.11%	0.22%	0.30%	0.07%	0.22%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.04%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%				<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.49%	0.01%			0.03%	<0.01%		0.03%		0.08%	0.72%	0.01%		0.04%		0.58%			0.14%	<0.01%		0.60%	0.59%				0.11%
Atlanta Falcons			0.20%	<0.01%			0.02%			0.02%		0.03%	0.36%	<0.01%		0.01%		0.24%			0.05%			0.26%	0.27%				0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	0.65%	0.29%			0.10%	0.08%			0.47%		0.53%						1.02%		1.64%	0.32%			1.27%			0.13%	0.02%	<0.01%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%				<0.01%		<0.01%						<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.08%	<0.01%			0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	0.13%			<0.01%		0.08%			0.02%			0.08%	0.10%				0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.04%				<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	0.07%	<0.01%		<0.01%		0.05%			0.02%			0.05%	0.06%				<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%			0.02%		0.02%						0.04%		0.06%	0.01%			0.05%			<0.01%				<0.01%
Cleveland Browns																			<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.52%	<0.01%			0.03%	<0.01%		0.04%		0.07%	0.87%	<0.01%		0.04%		0.56%			0.16%	<0.01%		0.60%	0.66%				0.13%
Denver Broncos	0.03%	0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%			0.01%		0.02%						0.03%		0.05%	0.01%			0.04%			<0.01%				<0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.53%	<0.01%			0.03%	<0.01%		0.04%		0.08%	0.90%	0.01%		0.04%		0.62%			0.17%	<0.01%		0.62%	0.67%				0.11%
Houston Texans	0.09%	0.05%			<0.01%	0.01%			0.06%		0.06%						0.14%		0.19%	0.04%			0.18%			<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.34%	0.61%			0.19%	0.15%			0.93%		1.07%						2.27%		3.47%	0.62%			2.58%			0.24%	0.04%	<0.01%		0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%						<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%			0.01%			<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs																							<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.03%	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%			0.03%		0.03%						0.05%		0.06%	0.01%			0.05%			<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			1.08%	0.01%			0.07%			0.08%		0.17%	1.75%	0.02%		0.07%		1.14%			0.28%	<0.01%		1.17%	1.36%				0.22%
New England Patriots	0.81%	0.33%			0.13%	0.11%			0.60%		0.72%						1.36%		2.00%	0.39%			1.60%			0.13%	0.03%	<0.01%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			1.99%	0.02%			0.14%	<0.01%		0.14%		0.30%	3.57%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.15%		2.24%			0.58%	<0.01%		2.37%	2.78%				0.46%
New York Giants			0.20%	<0.01%			0.01%			0.01%		0.03%	0.29%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%		0.19%			0.06%	<0.01%		0.21%	0.23%				0.06%
New York Jets	0.18%	0.06%			0.02%	0.02%			0.13%		0.16%						0.27%		0.42%	0.08%			0.36%			0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	<0.01%																<0.01%		<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			1.47%	0.01%			0.10%	<0.01%		0.10%		0.26%	2.47%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.13%		1.60%			0.42%	<0.01%		1.77%	2.01%				0.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.78%	0.34%			0.10%	0.11%			0.53%		0.56%						1.32%		1.91%	0.36%			1.49%			0.10%	0.02%	<0.01%		0.02%
San Diego Chargers	1.16%	0.47%			0.16%	0.14%			0.76%		0.96%						1.88%		2.89%	0.54%			2.27%			0.17%	0.03%	<0.01%		0.03%
San Francisco 49ers			0.06%	<0.01%			<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	0.09%			<0.01%		0.05%			0.02%			0.07%	0.07%				0.02%
Seattle Seahawks			<0.01%				<0.01%					<0.01%	<0.01%					<0.01%			<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%				<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			<0.01%										<0.01%					<0.01%						<0.01%	<0.01%				<0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.12%	0.05%			0.02%	0.01%			0.07%		0.08%						0.18%		0.25%	0.06%			0.22%			0.02%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins			<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New Orleans Saints	100.00%	61.80%	39.06%	19.86%	Won Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	65.71%	37.50%	19.27%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	63.45%	32.31%	17.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	54.21%	22.50%	9.90%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	59.67%	24.51%	12.38%	6.49%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	54.32%	26.46%	12.60%	6.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	45.68%	19.79%	10.42%	5.54%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	52.33%	21.75%	9.60%	4.64%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	57.32%	20.02%	7.90%	3.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	40.33%	16.22%	7.17%	3.68%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Arizona Cardinals	47.67%	15.99%	5.83%	2.38%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	42.68%	10.10%	2.75%	1.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens			40.33%
Cincinnati Bengals				42.68%
New England Patriots	59.67%
New York Jets		57.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals			47.67%
Dallas Cowboys				54.32%
Green Bay Packers	52.33%
Philadelphia Eagles		45.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens			16.22%
Cincinnati Bengals			6.07%			4.03%
Indianapolis Colts	24.11%	19.27%			22.32%
New England Patriots						24.51%
New York Jets			12.01%			8.01%
San Diego Chargers		13.31%		35.16%	14.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals				8.26%	7.73%
Dallas Cowboys				26.46%
Green Bay Packers				11.07%	10.69%
Minnesota Vikings	13.52%	27.86%	12.83%
New Orleans Saints	18.16%		17.75%			25.89%
Philadelphia Eagles					19.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens		1.01%			1.53%	4.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.63%		0.59%	0.65%		0.88%
Indianapolis Colts		1.81%		9.64%	2.96%	23.09%
New England Patriots		1.81%	7.47%		3.09%
New York Jets	1.70%		1.82%	1.85%		2.53%
San Diego Chargers	6.71%	2.72%	18.33%		4.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals		1.29%		1.53%	1.40%	1.60%
Dallas Cowboys	2.48%		3.01%		7.11%
Green Bay Packers		2.14%		2.65%	2.43%	2.37%
Minnesota Vikings	2.42%		2.89%		11.80%	5.39%
New Orleans Saints	3.19%	10.43%	3.89%	21.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.07%		2.38%	5.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers
Arizona Cardinals		0.15%	0.08%			0.92%		0.29%		0.20%		0.73%
Baltimore Ravens	0.26%			0.42%	0.34%		0.86%		1.44%		0.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%			0.12%	0.09%		0.24%		0.38%		0.08%
Dallas Cowboys		0.43%	0.21%			2.32%		0.78%		0.53%		1.93%
Green Bay Packers		0.32%	0.19%			1.74%		0.58%		0.37%		1.45%
Indianapolis Colts	1.33%			2.48%	1.85%		4.64%		7.13%		1.85%
Minnesota Vikings		0.73%	0.35%			3.64%		1.21%		0.90%		3.06%
New England Patriots	0.43%			0.76%	0.64%		1.65%		2.40%		0.61%
New Orleans Saints		1.46%	0.73%			7.51%		2.35%		1.67%		6.13%
New York Jets	0.23%			0.49%	0.35%		0.93%		1.43%		0.34%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.40%	0.19%			2.08%		0.68%		0.46%		1.74%
San Diego Chargers	1.11%			2.13%	1.68%		4.28%		6.41%		1.65%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New Orleans Saints 19.86% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

41.89%

Win Prob

56.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.18%

Win Prob

64.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.83%

Win Prob

51.30%

Indianapolis Colts 19.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

36.70%

Win Prob

59.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

61.59%

Win Prob

55.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.02%

Win Prob

48.70%

San Diego Chargers 17.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

55.42%

Win Prob

58.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

56.73%

Win Prob

44.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.12%

Win Prob

51.11%

Minnesota Vikings 9.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

51.40%

Win Prob

51.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

52.44%

Win Prob

35.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

36.80%

Win Prob

44.00%

New England Patriots 6.49% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

60.40%

Win Prob

43.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.05%

Win Prob

50.52%

Dallas Cowboys 6.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.32%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

56.43%

Win Prob

40.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.47%

Win Prob

48.43%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.68%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

57.34%

Win Prob

52.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.62%

Win Prob

53.00%

Green Bay Packers 4.64% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

50.87%

Win Prob

46.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

27.64%

Win Prob

47.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.38%

Win Prob

48.48%

New York Jets 3.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.32%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

59.99%

Win Prob

34.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.02%

Win Prob

35.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.91%

Win Prob

46.09%

Baltimore Ravens 3.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

64.59%

Win Prob

40.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

39.20%

Win Prob

49.72%

Arizona Cardinals 2.38% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.67%

Win Prob

37.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

27.50%

Win Prob

43.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

38.85%

Win Prob

40.93%

Cincinnati Bengals 1.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.68%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

60.07%

Win Prob

23.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.11%

Win Prob

24.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.95%

Win Prob

34.08%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2009-09-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1543.04	1456.33	68.25%	31.54%	-15.88	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-17	1527.16	1439.29	55.72%	44.05%	+19.19	1-1
2009-09-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1546.35	1588.42	50.61%	49.15%	-26.99	1-2
2009-10-11	Houston Texans	W 28-21	1519.36	1483.13	61.66%	38.12%	+11.74	2-2
2009-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-3	1531.10	1459.82	53.35%	46.42%	+26.47	3-2
2009-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1557.57	1616.09	35.14%	64.64%	+19.89	4-2
2009-11-01	Carolina Panthers	L 21-34	1577.46	1469.32	70.85%	28.95%	-29.71	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-21	1547.75	1504.02	49.39%	50.38%	+26.22	5-3
2009-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-20	1573.97	1429.85	74.93%	24.89%	+9.61	6-3
2009-11-22	@ St. Louis Rams	W 21-13	1583.58	1274.67	81.75%	18.10%	+5.95	7-3
2009-11-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1589.53	1539.02	50.36%	49.40%	-10.15	7-4
2009-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1579.38	1640.68	47.85%	51.92%	+21.78	8-4
2009-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-24	1601.16	1448.33	64.64%	35.15%	-29.11	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1572.05	1251.23	82.75%	17.11%	+5.26	9-5
2009-12-27	St. Louis Rams	W 31-10	1577.31	1234.89	90.33%	9.58%	+5.11	10-5
2010-01-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1582.42	1577.31	57.35%	42.42%	-34.02	10-6
2009-09-13	Miami Dolphins	W 19-7	1534.82	1515.55	59.33%	40.45%	+16.31	1-0
2009-09-20	Carolina Panthers	W 28-20	1551.13	1500.40	63.61%	36.17%	+11.91	2-0
2009-09-27	@ New England Patriots	L 10-26	1563.04	1575.08	41.45%	58.32%	-19.30	2-1
2009-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 45-10	1543.74	1497.50	49.75%	50.02%	+34.43	3-1
2009-10-18	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1578.17	1538.51	62.12%	37.65%	+11.60	4-1
2009-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-37	1589.77	1540.69	50.16%	49.61%	-23.35	4-2
2009-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-35	1566.42	1655.17	31.29%	68.50%	-10.30	4-3
2009-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-17	1556.12	1426.79	73.30%	26.51%	+11.54	5-3
2009-11-15	@ Carolina Panthers	L 19-28	1567.66	1490.72	54.16%	45.61%	-18.90	5-4
2009-11-22	@ New York Giants	L 31-34	1548.76	1567.24	40.55%	59.22%	-8.18	5-5
2009-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1540.58	1383.91	76.26%	23.56%	+4.75	6-5
2009-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1545.33	1622.95	45.51%	54.25%	-27.52	6-6
2009-12-13	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1517.81	1714.84	29.59%	70.21%	-5.97	6-7
2009-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 10-7	1511.84	1540.82	39.11%	60.67%	+12.22	7-7
2009-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 31-3	1524.06	1414.21	71.06%	28.75%	+17.71	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1541.77	1397.51	63.50%	36.28%	+13.36	9-7
2009-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-24	1626.26	1365.14	85.41%	14.47%	+6.30	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-26	1632.56	1577.23	51.06%	48.71%	+12.68	2-0
2009-09-27	Cleveland Browns	W 34-3	1645.24	1375.58	86.01%	13.87%	+8.98	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 21-27	1654.22	1594.38	51.71%	48.06%	-14.74	3-1
2009-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1639.48	1460.66	78.49%	21.35%	-15.80	3-2
2009-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 31-33	1623.68	1597.81	46.82%	52.94%	-7.71	3-3
2009-11-01	Denver Broncos	W 30-7	1615.97	1541.19	66.74%	33.04%	+18.45	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1634.42	1491.19	63.37%	36.41%	-23.31	4-4
2009-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-0	1611.11	1328.23	79.42%	20.42%	+9.51	5-4
2009-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 15-17	1620.62	1671.97	49.28%	50.48%	-8.11	5-5
2009-11-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1612.51	1642.35	52.37%	47.39%	+9.55	6-5
2009-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1622.06	1530.43	56.25%	43.52%	-23.59	6-6
2009-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 48-3	1598.47	1258.82	90.19%	9.72%	+7.58	7-6
2009-12-20	Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1606.05	1438.45	77.38%	22.45%	+12.81	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1618.86	1594.55	46.60%	53.17%	-9.40	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-13	1609.46	1322.96	79.76%	20.09%	+6.61	9-7
2009-09-14	@ New England Patriots	L 24-25	1444.89	1589.01	24.88%	74.93%	-2.90	0-1
2009-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-20	1441.99	1463.02	53.64%	46.13%	+19.36	1-1
2009-09-27	New Orleans Saints	L 7-27	1461.35	1578.39	39.97%	59.81%	-20.81	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-38	1440.54	1476.57	38.15%	61.63%	-23.50	1-3
2009-10-11	Cleveland Browns	L 3-6	1417.04	1357.64	64.75%	35.03%	-13.04	1-4
2009-10-18	@ New York Jets	W 16-13	1404.00	1517.07	28.37%	71.44%	+14.39	2-4
2009-10-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-9	1418.39	1495.16	32.79%	67.00%	+25.84	3-4
2009-11-01	Houston Texans	L 10-31	1444.23	1501.36	48.45%	51.32%	-25.84	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-41	1418.39	1510.14	30.92%	68.87%	-17.64	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-18	1400.75	1438.01	37.98%	61.80%	-7.65	3-7
2009-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 31-14	1393.10	1524.19	38.05%	61.73%	+29.60	4-7
2009-12-03	New York Jets	L 13-19	1422.70	1508.58	44.34%	55.43%	-12.64	4-8
2009-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1410.06	1324.57	55.38%	44.39%	+12.66	5-8
2009-12-20	New England Patriots	L 10-17	1422.72	1636.65	27.61%	72.20%	-8.51	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-31	1414.21	1524.06	28.75%	71.06%	-17.71	5-10
2010-01-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-7	1396.50	1678.89	20.47%	79.37%	+14.76	6-10
2009-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-38	1526.65	1624.65	42.62%	57.15%	-26.25	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-28	1500.40	1551.13	36.17%	63.61%	-11.91	0-2
2009-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1488.49	1532.01	37.13%	62.64%	-16.18	0-3
2009-10-11	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1472.31	1472.09	56.66%	43.11%	+8.69	1-3
2009-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-21	1481.00	1406.66	53.79%	45.98%	+14.16	2-3
2009-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 9-20	1495.16	1418.39	67.00%	32.79%	-25.84	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-21	1469.32	1577.46	28.95%	70.85%	+29.71	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1499.03	1665.47	22.56%	77.26%	-8.31	3-5
2009-11-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-19	1490.72	1567.66	45.61%	54.16%	+18.90	4-5
2009-11-19	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1509.62	1506.63	57.05%	42.72%	-17.56	4-6
2009-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 6-17	1492.06	1491.92	43.16%	56.61%	-16.66	4-7
2009-12-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-6	1475.40	1379.16	69.42%	30.37%	+11.18	5-7
2009-12-13	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1486.58	1627.35	25.25%	74.57%	-9.29	5-8
2009-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1477.29	1635.43	34.45%	65.33%	+33.12	6-8
2009-12-27	@ New York Giants	W 41-9	1510.41	1574.50	34.42%	65.37%	+43.01	7-8
2010-01-03	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1553.42	1679.25	38.76%	61.01%	+8.53	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-21	1513.73	1492.67	46.14%	53.63%	-13.15	0-1
2009-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1500.58	1651.21	35.44%	64.35%	+12.96	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-19	1513.54	1445.90	52.83%	46.94%	+13.38	2-1
2009-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 48-24	1526.92	1337.17	79.53%	20.31%	+11.59	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1538.51	1578.17	37.65%	62.12%	-11.60	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-45	1526.91	1454.34	53.53%	46.23%	-36.85	3-3
2009-11-01	Cleveland Browns	W 30-6	1490.06	1342.20	75.33%	24.49%	+13.96	4-3
2009-11-08	Arizona Cardinals	L 21-41	1504.02	1547.75	50.38%	49.39%	-26.22	4-4
2009-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-10	1477.80	1435.26	49.22%	50.55%	-11.45	4-5
2009-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1466.35	1610.32	36.32%	63.47%	-8.46	4-6
2009-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-36	1457.89	1627.47	22.25%	77.58%	-13.21	4-7
2009-12-06	St. Louis Rams	W 17-9	1444.68	1255.14	79.51%	20.33%	+6.70	5-7
2009-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-21	1451.38	1554.03	41.97%	57.80%	-12.93	5-8
2009-12-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-31	1438.45	1606.05	22.45%	77.38%	-12.80	5-9
2009-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 36-30	1425.65	1602.31	32.09%	67.70%	+19.29	6-9
2010-01-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-23	1444.94	1238.38	71.34%	28.46%	+12.40	7-9
2009-09-13	Denver Broncos	L 7-12	1431.20	1428.33	57.03%	42.74%	-14.84	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-24	1416.36	1505.82	31.20%	68.59%	+21.11	1-1
2009-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1437.47	1638.24	29.15%	70.65%	+14.23	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1451.70	1366.60	55.32%	44.45%	+8.96	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-14	1460.66	1639.48	21.35%	78.49%	+15.80	4-1
2009-10-18	Houston Texans	L 17-28	1476.46	1471.39	57.34%	42.43%	-22.12	4-2
2009-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 45-10	1454.34	1526.91	46.23%	53.53%	+36.85	5-2
2009-11-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-7	1491.19	1634.42	36.41%	63.37%	+23.31	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 18-12	1514.50	1680.97	22.56%	77.27%	+22.00	7-2
2009-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1536.50	1334.03	70.86%	28.95%	-14.27	7-3
2009-11-29	Cleveland Browns	W 16-7	1522.23	1312.92	81.30%	18.55%	+6.48	8-3
2009-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1528.71	1264.05	85.66%	14.22%	+5.23	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1533.94	1618.90	31.76%	68.03%	-16.54	9-4
2009-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1517.40	1638.70	27.42%	72.39%	-5.53	9-5
2009-12-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1511.87	1295.11	81.94%	17.91%	+5.52	10-5
2010-01-03	@ New York Jets	L 0-37	1517.39	1562.98	36.86%	62.92%	-26.11	10-6
2009-09-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-34	1411.71	1541.61	38.21%	61.57%	-16.64	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-27	1395.07	1443.17	36.52%	63.26%	-19.49	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-34	1375.58	1645.24	13.87%	86.01%	-8.98	0-3
2009-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1366.60	1451.70	44.45%	55.32%	-8.96	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 6-3	1357.64	1417.04	35.03%	64.75%	+13.04	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1370.68	1643.37	13.66%	86.22%	-5.73	1-5
2009-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1364.95	1504.31	36.93%	62.85%	-22.75	1-6
2009-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-30	1342.20	1490.06	24.49%	75.33%	-13.97	1-7
2009-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-16	1328.23	1611.11	20.42%	79.42%	-9.50	1-8
2009-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 37-38	1318.73	1271.78	49.85%	49.91%	-5.81	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-16	1312.92	1522.23	18.55%	81.30%	-6.47	1-10
2009-12-06	San Diego Chargers	L 23-30	1306.45	1623.69	17.40%	82.46%	-5.36	1-11
2009-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-6	1301.09	1615.18	17.66%	82.19%	+25.28	2-11
2009-12-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-34	1326.37	1311.91	45.19%	54.57%	+16.80	3-11
2009-12-27	Oakland Raiders	W 23-9	1343.17	1341.66	56.84%	42.93%	+18.70	4-11
2010-01-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1361.87	1411.81	49.48%	50.28%	+14.33	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-21	1518.29	1484.77	47.92%	51.84%	+21.75	1-0
2009-09-20	New York Giants	L 31-33	1540.04	1594.80	48.79%	50.98%	-8.03	1-1
2009-09-28	Carolina Panthers	W 21-7	1532.01	1488.49	62.64%	37.13%	+16.18	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1548.19	1489.32	51.57%	48.20%	-15.88	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-20	1532.31	1333.51	70.42%	29.38%	+8.38	3-2
2009-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-21	1540.69	1589.77	49.61%	50.16%	+23.35	4-2
2009-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-17	1564.04	1433.35	73.46%	26.36%	+14.06	5-2
2009-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-16	1578.10	1642.36	34.40%	65.39%	+15.21	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1593.31	1485.40	58.54%	41.23%	-21.53	6-3
2009-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 7-6	1571.78	1435.81	74.04%	25.77%	+3.00	7-3
2009-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1574.78	1348.30	82.75%	17.11%	+8.21	8-3
2009-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 24-31	1582.99	1544.26	48.67%	51.10%	-14.99	8-4
2009-12-13	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1568.00	1629.04	47.89%	51.88%	-9.65	8-5
2009-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1558.35	1720.80	22.97%	76.86%	+23.64	9-5
2009-12-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-0	1581.99	1420.94	65.71%	34.08%	+16.36	10-5
2010-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1598.35	1677.21	45.34%	54.43%	+31.03	11-5
2009-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 12-7	1428.33	1431.20	42.74%	57.03%	+14.84	1-0
2009-09-20	Cleveland Browns	W 27-6	1443.17	1395.07	63.26%	36.52%	+19.48	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-3	1462.65	1425.01	48.51%	51.25%	+26.67	3-0
2009-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1489.32	1548.19	48.20%	51.57%	+15.88	4-0
2009-10-11	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1505.20	1609.12	41.79%	57.98%	+11.68	5-0
2009-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-23	1516.88	1563.18	36.76%	63.02%	+24.31	6-0
2009-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-30	1541.19	1615.97	33.04%	66.74%	-18.45	6-1
2009-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1522.74	1662.77	36.84%	62.94%	-18.20	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1504.54	1415.24	55.92%	43.85%	-20.57	6-3
2009-11-22	San Diego Chargers	L 3-32	1483.97	1588.26	41.74%	58.03%	-26.17	6-4
2009-11-26	New York Giants	W 26-6	1457.80	1575.42	39.89%	59.88%	+31.16	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-13	1488.96	1348.40	63.01%	36.77%	+23.83	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-28	1512.79	1700.20	20.53%	79.31%	-8.27	8-5
2009-12-20	Oakland Raiders	L 19-20	1504.52	1332.61	77.81%	22.02%	-9.05	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-30	1495.47	1672.88	21.48%	78.35%	-4.33	8-7
2010-01-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-44	1491.14	1289.60	80.61%	19.24%	-41.91	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-45	1341.76	1525.60	20.87%	78.97%	-10.30	0-1
2009-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-27	1331.46	1558.25	26.16%	73.66%	-11.40	0-2
2009-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 19-14	1320.06	1481.62	34.01%	65.78%	+17.11	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-48	1337.17	1526.92	20.31%	79.53%	-11.58	1-3
2009-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-28	1325.59	1637.49	17.84%	82.01%	-5.88	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-26	1319.71	1491.21	22.06%	77.77%	-13.09	1-5
2009-11-01	St. Louis Rams	L 10-17	1306.62	1258.27	63.29%	36.49%	-19.48	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-32	1287.14	1419.29	26.19%	73.62%	-10.56	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1276.58	1610.94	9.99%	89.91%	-4.80	1-8
2009-11-22	Cleveland Browns	W 38-37	1271.78	1318.73	49.91%	49.85%	+5.81	2-8
2009-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 12-34	1277.59	1516.90	24.79%	75.03%	-13.54	2-9
2009-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-23	1264.05	1528.71	14.22%	85.66%	-5.23	2-10
2009-12-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-48	1258.82	1598.47	9.72%	90.19%	-7.59	2-11
2009-12-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-31	1251.23	1572.05	17.11%	82.75%	-5.26	2-12
2009-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1245.97	1468.47	17.43%	82.42%	-7.59	2-13
2010-01-03	Chicago Bears	L 23-37	1238.38	1444.94	28.46%	71.34%	-12.40	2-14
2009-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 21-15	1492.67	1513.73	53.63%	46.14%	+13.15	1-0
2009-09-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-31	1505.82	1416.36	68.59%	31.20%	-21.11	1-1
2009-09-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 36-17	1484.71	1314.14	66.93%	32.86%	+16.68	2-1
2009-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-30	1501.39	1576.18	33.04%	66.75%	-10.18	2-2
2009-10-18	Detroit Lions	W 26-0	1491.21	1319.71	77.77%	22.06%	+13.10	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-3	1504.31	1364.95	62.85%	36.93%	+22.75	4-2
2009-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-38	1527.06	1591.85	47.35%	52.42%	-19.09	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-38	1507.97	1379.73	61.34%	38.43%	-22.57	4-4
2009-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-7	1485.40	1593.31	41.23%	58.54%	+21.54	5-4
2009-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-24	1506.94	1446.71	64.86%	34.92%	+9.96	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-12	1516.90	1277.59	75.03%	24.79%	+13.53	7-4
2009-12-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-14	1530.43	1622.06	43.52%	56.25%	+23.60	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1554.03	1451.38	57.80%	41.97%	+12.93	9-4
2009-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 36-37	1566.96	1589.90	39.94%	59.84%	-4.65	9-5
2009-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 48-10	1562.31	1378.99	78.92%	20.92%	+15.00	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 33-7	1577.31	1582.42	42.42%	57.35%	+34.02	11-5
2009-09-13	New York Jets	L 7-24	1497.77	1483.26	58.66%	41.11%	-28.14	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-31	1469.63	1588.13	27.74%	72.07%	+14.51	1-1
2009-09-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1484.14	1420.10	65.36%	34.42%	-20.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Oakland Raiders	W 29-6	1464.03	1398.34	65.58%	34.21%	+19.10	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-28	1483.13	1519.36	38.12%	61.66%	-11.74	2-3
2009-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1471.39	1476.46	42.43%	57.34%	+22.13	3-3
2009-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1493.52	1463.07	60.87%	38.91%	+7.84	4-3
2009-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-10	1501.36	1444.23	51.32%	48.45%	+25.84	5-3
2009-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1527.20	1662.04	25.90%	73.92%	-5.22	5-4
2009-11-23	Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1521.98	1527.78	55.81%	43.96%	-11.25	5-5
2009-11-29	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-35	1510.73	1680.08	33.01%	66.78%	-10.87	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 18-23	1499.86	1424.36	53.95%	45.81%	-14.04	5-7
2009-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1485.82	1431.81	64.04%	35.74%	+21.62	6-7
2009-12-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 16-13	1507.44	1239.29	78.00%	21.83%	+4.41	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-20	1511.85	1505.28	44.07%	55.70%	+17.14	8-7
2010-01-03	New England Patriots	W 34-27	1528.99	1655.88	38.62%	61.16%	+18.82	9-7
2009-09-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-12	1573.50	1443.64	73.36%	26.45%	+4.36	1-0
2009-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-23	1577.86	1499.24	54.40%	45.37%	+10.56	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-10	1588.42	1546.35	49.15%	50.61%	+26.99	3-0
2009-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-17	1615.41	1432.52	78.88%	20.96%	+10.06	4-0
2009-10-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-9	1625.47	1527.14	57.19%	42.58%	+23.25	5-0
2009-10-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 42-6	1648.72	1267.13	87.18%	12.70%	+8.86	6-0
2009-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 18-14	1657.58	1455.22	80.68%	19.16%	+4.46	7-0
2009-11-08	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1662.04	1527.20	73.92%	25.90%	+5.23	8-0
2009-11-15	New England Patriots	W 35-34	1667.27	1647.56	59.39%	40.38%	+4.70	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-15	1671.97	1620.62	50.48%	49.28%	+8.11	10-0
2009-11-29	@ Houston Texans	W 35-27	1680.08	1510.73	66.78%	33.01%	+10.87	11-0
2009-12-06	Tennessee Titans	W 27-17	1690.95	1549.18	74.68%	25.14%	+9.25	12-0
2009-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 28-16	1700.20	1512.79	79.31%	20.53%	+8.28	13-0
2009-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-31	1708.48	1427.33	79.25%	20.58%	+4.79	14-0
2009-12-27	New York Jets	L 15-29	1713.27	1528.60	79.05%	20.79%	-34.38	14-1
2010-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1678.89	1396.50	79.37%	20.47%	-14.76	14-2
2009-09-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 12-14	1443.64	1573.50	26.45%	73.36%	-4.35	0-1
2009-09-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-31	1439.29	1527.16	44.05%	55.72%	-19.19	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Houston Texans	W 31-24	1420.10	1484.14	34.42%	65.36%	+20.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Tennessee Titans	W 37-17	1440.21	1558.33	39.82%	59.95%	+31.19	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-41	1471.40	1422.46	50.14%	49.63%	-37.36	2-3
2009-10-18	St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1434.04	1271.77	76.84%	22.99%	+4.64	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-30	1438.68	1476.44	37.91%	61.87%	-18.20	3-4
2009-11-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1420.48	1330.10	68.70%	31.09%	+6.27	4-4
2009-11-15	@ New York Jets	W 24-22	1426.75	1515.41	31.30%	68.49%	+11.26	5-4
2009-11-22	Buffalo Bills	W 18-15	1438.01	1400.75	61.80%	37.98%	+7.66	6-4
2009-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1445.67	1436.75	44.40%	55.36%	-21.31	6-5
2009-12-06	Houston Texans	W 23-18	1424.36	1499.86	45.81%	53.95%	+14.04	7-5
2009-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1438.40	1501.90	47.53%	52.23%	-11.07	7-6
2009-12-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-35	1427.33	1708.48	20.58%	79.25%	-4.79	7-7
2009-12-27	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1422.54	1645.15	17.42%	82.43%	-10.73	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-23	1411.81	1361.87	50.28%	49.48%	-14.33	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-38	1365.14	1626.26	14.47%	85.41%	-6.30	0-1
2009-09-20	Oakland Raiders	L 10-13	1358.84	1415.22	48.56%	51.21%	-9.79	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1349.05	1608.41	14.59%	85.28%	-7.59	0-3
2009-10-04	New York Giants	L 16-27	1341.46	1622.40	20.60%	79.23%	-7.95	0-4
2009-10-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-26	1333.51	1532.31	29.38%	70.42%	-8.38	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-6	1325.13	1463.39	25.52%	74.30%	+24.43	1-5
2009-10-25	San Diego Chargers	L 7-37	1349.56	1538.87	30.53%	69.27%	-19.46	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1330.10	1420.48	31.09%	68.70%	-6.27	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1323.83	1351.26	39.32%	60.45%	+17.22	2-7
2009-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1341.05	1658.96	17.34%	82.51%	+16.62	3-7
2009-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-43	1357.67	1614.43	14.78%	85.09%	-9.27	3-8
2009-12-06	Denver Broncos	L 13-44	1348.40	1488.96	36.77%	63.01%	-23.83	3-9
2009-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 10-16	1324.57	1410.06	44.39%	55.38%	-12.66	3-10
2009-12-20	Cleveland Browns	L 34-41	1311.91	1326.37	54.57%	45.19%	-16.80	3-11
2009-12-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1295.11	1511.87	17.91%	81.94%	-5.51	3-12
2010-01-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 44-24	1289.60	1491.14	19.24%	80.61%	+41.90	4-12
2009-09-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-19	1515.55	1534.82	40.45%	59.33%	-16.31	0-1
2009-09-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-27	1499.24	1577.86	45.37%	54.40%	-10.56	0-2
2009-09-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1488.68	1564.55	32.91%	66.88%	-12.11	0-3
2009-10-04	Buffalo Bills	W 38-10	1476.57	1440.54	61.63%	38.15%	+23.50	1-3
2009-10-12	New York Jets	W 31-27	1500.07	1528.04	52.64%	47.12%	+10.97	2-3
2009-10-25	New Orleans Saints	L 34-46	1511.04	1639.69	38.38%	61.40%	-15.48	2-4
2009-11-01	@ New York Jets	W 30-25	1495.56	1531.44	38.17%	61.61%	+16.02	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New England Patriots	L 17-27	1511.58	1637.67	26.87%	72.94%	-9.89	3-5
2009-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-23	1501.69	1402.29	69.81%	29.99%	+4.94	4-5
2009-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-17	1506.63	1509.62	42.72%	57.05%	+17.56	5-5
2009-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-31	1524.19	1393.10	61.73%	38.05%	-29.61	5-6
2009-12-06	New England Patriots	W 22-21	1494.58	1634.68	36.83%	62.95%	+7.32	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-10	1501.90	1438.40	52.23%	47.53%	+11.07	7-6
2009-12-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1512.97	1549.07	38.14%	61.64%	-7.69	7-7
2009-12-27	Houston Texans	L 20-27	1505.28	1511.85	55.70%	44.07%	-17.15	7-8
2010-01-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1488.13	1603.94	40.14%	59.63%	-11.44	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-20	1541.61	1411.71	61.57%	38.21%	+16.64	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1558.25	1331.46	73.66%	26.16%	+11.39	2-0
2009-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1569.64	1489.79	67.39%	32.40%	+6.54	3-0
2009-10-05	Green Bay Packers	W 30-23	1576.18	1501.39	66.75%	33.04%	+10.18	4-0
2009-10-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 38-10	1586.36	1283.22	81.25%	18.60%	+11.45	5-0
2009-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-31	1597.81	1623.68	52.94%	46.82%	+7.71	6-0
2009-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1605.52	1649.10	37.13%	62.65%	-13.67	6-1
2009-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-26	1591.85	1527.06	52.42%	47.35%	+19.09	7-1
2009-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1610.94	1276.58	89.91%	9.99%	+4.79	8-1
2009-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-9	1615.73	1420.25	80.06%	19.78%	+11.74	9-1
2009-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 36-10	1627.47	1457.89	77.58%	22.25%	+13.21	10-1
2009-12-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-30	1640.68	1579.38	51.92%	47.85%	-21.78	10-2
2009-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-10	1618.90	1533.94	68.03%	31.76%	+16.53	11-2
2009-12-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-26	1635.43	1477.29	65.33%	34.45%	-33.12	11-3
2009-12-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 30-36	1602.31	1425.65	67.70%	32.09%	-19.28	11-4
2010-01-03	New York Giants	W 44-7	1583.03	1531.49	63.72%	36.07%	+25.54	12-4
2009-09-14	Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1589.01	1444.89	74.93%	24.88%	+2.90	1-0
2009-09-20	@ New York Jets	L 9-16	1591.91	1511.40	54.67%	45.10%	-16.83	1-1
2009-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-10	1575.08	1563.04	58.32%	41.45%	+19.30	2-1
2009-10-04	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-21	1594.38	1654.22	48.06%	51.71%	+14.74	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1609.12	1505.20	57.98%	41.79%	-11.68	3-2
2009-10-18	Tennessee Titans	W 59-0	1597.44	1503.90	69.09%	30.70%	+27.46	4-2
2009-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1624.90	1392.50	79.10%	20.73%	+12.77	5-2
2009-11-08	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1637.67	1511.58	72.94%	26.87%	+9.89	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 34-35	1647.56	1667.27	40.38%	59.39%	-4.70	6-3
2009-11-22	New York Jets	W 31-14	1642.86	1504.15	74.34%	25.47%	+12.23	7-3
2009-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-38	1655.09	1690.29	38.26%	61.52%	-20.41	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-22	1634.68	1494.58	62.95%	36.83%	-7.33	7-5
2009-12-13	Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1627.35	1486.58	74.57%	25.25%	+9.30	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1636.65	1422.72	72.20%	27.61%	+8.50	9-5
2009-12-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-7	1645.15	1422.54	82.43%	17.42%	+10.73	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Houston Texans	L 27-34	1655.88	1528.99	61.16%	38.62%	-18.82	10-6
2009-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 45-27	1525.60	1341.76	78.97%	20.87%	+10.30	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 48-22	1535.90	1650.90	28.14%	71.66%	+42.49	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1578.39	1461.35	59.81%	39.97%	+20.81	3-0
2009-10-04	New York Jets	W 24-10	1599.20	1543.51	64.27%	35.52%	+15.48	4-0
2009-10-18	New York Giants	W 48-27	1614.68	1641.11	52.86%	46.90%	+25.01	5-0
2009-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 46-34	1639.69	1511.04	61.40%	38.38%	+15.48	6-0
2009-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-27	1655.17	1566.42	68.50%	31.29%	+10.30	7-0
2009-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 30-20	1665.47	1499.03	77.26%	22.56%	+8.31	8-0
2009-11-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-23	1673.78	1277.74	88.08%	11.81%	+3.07	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1676.85	1397.36	79.10%	20.74%	+13.44	10-0
2009-11-30	New England Patriots	W 38-17	1690.29	1655.09	61.52%	38.26%	+20.41	11-0
2009-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1710.70	1428.65	79.34%	20.50%	+4.14	12-0
2009-12-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1714.84	1517.81	70.21%	29.59%	+5.96	13-0
2009-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1720.80	1558.35	76.86%	22.97%	-23.64	13-1
2009-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1697.16	1379.59	89.00%	10.89%	-17.91	13-2
2010-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-23	1679.25	1553.42	61.01%	38.76%	-8.53	13-3
2009-09-13	Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1586.26	1486.33	69.87%	29.93%	+8.54	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-31	1594.80	1540.04	50.98%	48.79%	+8.03	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-0	1602.83	1443.66	65.47%	34.32%	+19.57	3-0
2009-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-16	1622.40	1341.46	79.23%	20.60%	+7.96	4-0
2009-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 44-7	1630.36	1379.23	84.68%	15.19%	+10.75	5-0
2009-10-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-48	1641.11	1614.68	46.90%	52.86%	-25.02	5-1
2009-10-25	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-24	1616.09	1557.57	64.64%	35.14%	-19.89	5-2
2009-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-40	1596.20	1620.14	39.80%	59.97%	-22.22	5-3
2009-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-21	1573.98	1564.70	57.93%	41.84%	-6.74	5-4
2009-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-31	1567.24	1548.76	59.22%	40.55%	+8.18	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-26	1575.42	1457.80	59.88%	39.89%	-31.16	6-5
2009-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1544.26	1582.99	51.10%	48.67%	+14.99	7-5
2009-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 38-45	1559.25	1650.47	43.58%	56.19%	-13.42	7-6
2009-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-12	1545.83	1449.61	56.89%	42.87%	+28.67	8-6
2009-12-27	Carolina Panthers	L 9-41	1574.50	1510.41	65.37%	34.42%	-43.01	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-44	1531.49	1583.03	36.07%	63.72%	-25.54	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Houston Texans	W 24-7	1483.26	1497.77	41.11%	58.66%	+28.14	1-0
2009-09-20	New England Patriots	W 16-9	1511.40	1591.91	45.10%	54.67%	+16.83	2-0
2009-09-27	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1528.23	1573.61	50.14%	49.63%	+15.28	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1543.51	1599.20	35.52%	64.27%	-15.47	3-1
2009-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1528.04	1500.07	47.12%	52.64%	-10.97	3-2
2009-10-18	Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1517.07	1404.00	71.44%	28.37%	-14.39	3-3
2009-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-0	1502.68	1386.37	59.70%	40.07%	+28.76	4-3
2009-11-01	Miami Dolphins	L 25-30	1531.44	1495.56	61.61%	38.17%	-16.03	4-4
2009-11-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-24	1515.41	1426.75	68.49%	31.30%	-11.26	4-5
2009-11-22	@ New England Patriots	L 14-31	1504.15	1642.86	25.47%	74.34%	-12.23	4-6
2009-11-29	Carolina Panthers	W 17-6	1491.92	1492.06	56.61%	43.16%	+16.66	5-6
2009-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-13	1508.58	1422.70	55.43%	44.34%	+12.64	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-3	1521.22	1367.98	64.69%	35.09%	+19.60	7-6
2009-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-10	1540.82	1511.84	60.67%	39.11%	-12.22	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-15	1528.60	1713.27	20.79%	79.05%	+34.38	8-7
2010-01-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-0	1562.98	1517.39	62.92%	36.86%	+26.10	9-7
2009-09-14	San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1423.64	1568.81	36.16%	63.62%	-8.42	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1415.22	1358.84	51.21%	48.56%	+9.79	1-1
2009-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 3-23	1425.01	1462.65	51.25%	48.51%	-26.67	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Houston Texans	L 6-29	1398.34	1464.03	34.21%	65.58%	-19.11	1-3
2009-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-44	1379.23	1630.36	15.19%	84.68%	-10.75	1-4
2009-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1368.48	1625.85	22.91%	76.92%	+17.89	2-4
2009-10-25	New York Jets	L 0-38	1386.37	1502.68	40.07%	59.70%	-28.76	2-5
2009-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-24	1357.61	1558.34	19.31%	80.54%	-6.35	2-6
2009-11-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-16	1351.26	1323.83	60.45%	39.32%	-17.23	2-7
2009-11-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1334.03	1536.50	28.95%	70.86%	+14.27	3-7
2009-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1348.30	1574.78	17.11%	82.75%	-8.21	3-8
2009-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1340.09	1632.79	12.36%	87.53%	+17.62	4-8
2009-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 13-34	1357.71	1424.51	47.06%	52.71%	-25.10	4-9
2009-12-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-19	1332.61	1504.52	22.02%	77.81%	+9.05	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 9-23	1341.66	1343.17	42.93%	56.84%	-18.70	5-10
2010-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-21	1322.96	1609.46	20.09%	79.76%	-6.61	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 38-10	1624.65	1526.65	57.15%	42.62%	+26.25	1-0
2009-09-20	New Orleans Saints	L 22-48	1650.90	1535.90	71.66%	28.14%	-42.49	1-1
2009-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-14	1608.41	1349.05	85.28%	14.59%	+7.59	2-1
2009-10-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1616.00	1416.51	80.42%	19.42%	+9.85	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-13	1625.85	1368.48	76.92%	22.91%	-17.88	3-2
2009-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1607.97	1438.96	66.73%	33.06%	+12.17	4-2
2009-11-01	New York Giants	W 40-17	1620.14	1596.20	59.97%	39.80%	+22.22	5-2
2009-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-20	1642.36	1578.10	65.39%	34.40%	-15.21	5-3
2009-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-31	1627.15	1571.44	51.11%	48.65%	-16.83	5-4
2009-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1610.32	1466.35	63.47%	36.32%	+8.46	6-4
2009-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1618.78	1432.81	79.17%	20.67%	+4.17	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-7	1622.95	1545.33	54.25%	45.51%	+27.52	8-4
2009-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 45-38	1650.47	1559.25	56.19%	43.58%	+13.42	9-4
2009-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1663.89	1477.45	79.22%	20.62%	+8.99	10-4
2009-12-27	Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1672.88	1495.47	78.35%	21.48%	+4.33	11-4
2010-01-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-24	1677.21	1598.35	54.43%	45.34%	-31.03	11-5
2009-09-10	Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1643.85	1595.49	63.29%	36.49%	+7.36	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1651.21	1500.58	64.35%	35.44%	-12.97	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1638.24	1437.47	70.65%	29.15%	-14.23	1-2
2009-10-04	San Diego Chargers	W 38-28	1624.01	1576.67	63.16%	36.62%	+13.48	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-20	1637.49	1325.59	82.01%	17.84%	+5.88	3-2
2009-10-18	Cleveland Browns	W 27-14	1643.37	1370.68	86.22%	13.66%	+5.73	4-2
2009-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1649.10	1605.52	62.65%	37.13%	+13.67	5-2
2009-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1662.77	1522.74	62.94%	36.84%	+18.20	6-2
2009-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-18	1680.97	1514.50	77.27%	22.56%	-22.01	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1658.96	1341.05	82.51%	17.34%	-16.61	6-4
2009-11-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1642.35	1612.51	47.39%	52.37%	-9.56	6-5
2009-12-06	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1632.79	1340.09	87.53%	12.36%	-17.61	6-6
2009-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-13	1615.18	1301.09	82.19%	17.66%	-25.28	6-7
2009-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 37-36	1589.90	1566.96	59.84%	39.94%	+4.65	7-7
2009-12-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1594.55	1618.86	53.17%	46.60%	+9.39	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-24	1603.94	1488.13	59.63%	40.14%	+11.45	9-7
2009-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-20	1568.81	1423.64	63.62%	36.16%	+8.42	1-0
2009-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 26-31	1577.23	1632.56	48.71%	51.06%	-12.68	1-1
2009-09-27	Miami Dolphins	W 23-13	1564.55	1488.68	66.88%	32.91%	+12.12	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-38	1576.67	1624.01	36.62%	63.16%	-13.49	2-2
2009-10-19	Denver Broncos	L 23-34	1563.18	1516.88	63.02%	36.76%	-24.31	2-3
2009-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-7	1538.87	1349.56	69.27%	30.53%	+19.47	3-3
2009-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 24-16	1558.34	1357.61	80.54%	19.31%	+6.36	4-3
2009-11-08	@ New York Giants	W 21-20	1564.70	1573.98	41.84%	57.93%	+6.74	5-3
2009-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-23	1571.44	1627.15	48.65%	51.11%	+16.82	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	W 32-3	1588.26	1483.97	58.03%	41.74%	+26.17	7-3
2009-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-14	1614.43	1357.67	85.09%	14.78%	+9.26	8-3
2009-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-23	1623.69	1306.45	82.46%	17.40%	+5.35	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1629.04	1568.00	51.88%	47.89%	+9.66	10-3
2009-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1638.70	1517.40	72.39%	27.42%	+5.52	11-3
2009-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 42-17	1644.22	1556.76	55.66%	44.11%	+25.68	12-3
2010-01-03	Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1669.90	1404.59	85.71%	14.17%	+0.95	13-3
2009-09-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-16	1456.33	1543.04	31.54%	68.25%	+15.87	1-0
2009-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-10	1472.20	1463.49	57.85%	41.92%	+17.59	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1489.79	1569.64	32.40%	67.39%	-6.53	2-1
2009-10-04	St. Louis Rams	W 35-0	1483.26	1297.46	79.16%	20.68%	+14.24	3-1
2009-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-45	1497.50	1543.74	50.02%	49.75%	-34.43	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Houston Texans	L 21-24	1463.07	1493.52	38.91%	60.87%	-7.85	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-18	1455.22	1657.58	19.16%	80.68%	-4.46	3-4
2009-11-08	Tennessee Titans	L 27-34	1450.76	1494.64	50.36%	49.41%	-15.50	3-5
2009-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 10-6	1435.26	1477.80	50.55%	49.22%	+11.45	4-5
2009-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-30	1446.71	1506.94	34.92%	64.86%	-9.96	4-6
2009-11-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-3	1436.75	1445.67	55.36%	44.40%	+21.31	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1458.06	1422.08	48.27%	51.49%	-9.73	5-7
2009-12-14	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-9	1448.33	1601.16	35.15%	64.64%	+29.12	6-7
2009-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1477.45	1663.89	20.62%	79.22%	-8.98	6-8
2009-12-27	Detroit Lions	W 20-6	1468.47	1245.97	82.42%	17.43%	+7.59	7-8
2010-01-03	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-6	1476.06	1229.79	75.77%	24.05%	+13.14	8-8
2009-09-13	St. Louis Rams	W 28-0	1445.80	1335.65	71.09%	28.71%	+17.69	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1463.49	1472.20	41.92%	57.85%	-17.59	1-1
2009-09-27	Chicago Bears	L 19-25	1445.90	1513.54	46.94%	52.83%	-13.38	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-34	1432.52	1615.41	20.96%	78.88%	-10.06	1-3
2009-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-0	1422.46	1471.40	49.63%	50.14%	+37.36	2-3
2009-10-18	Arizona Cardinals	L 3-27	1459.82	1531.10	46.42%	53.35%	-26.47	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-38	1433.35	1564.04	26.36%	73.46%	-14.06	2-5
2009-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 32-20	1419.29	1287.14	73.62%	26.19%	+10.56	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-31	1429.85	1573.97	24.89%	74.93%	-9.60	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-35	1420.25	1615.73	19.78%	80.06%	-11.75	3-7
2009-11-29	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-17	1408.50	1268.71	62.91%	36.87%	+13.58	4-7
2009-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1422.08	1458.06	51.49%	48.27%	+9.73	5-7
2009-12-13	@ Houston Texans	L 7-34	1431.81	1485.82	35.74%	64.04%	-21.62	5-8
2009-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-24	1410.19	1348.39	65.07%	34.72%	-31.20	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-48	1378.99	1562.31	20.92%	78.92%	-15.01	5-10
2010-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 13-17	1363.98	1531.09	33.30%	66.49%	-7.75	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-28	1335.65	1445.80	28.71%	71.09%	-17.69	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-9	1317.96	1477.79	23.24%	76.59%	-3.82	0-2
2009-09-27	Green Bay Packers	L 17-36	1314.14	1484.71	32.86%	66.93%	-16.68	0-3
2009-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1297.46	1483.26	20.68%	79.16%	-14.24	0-4
2009-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-38	1283.22	1586.36	18.60%	81.25%	-11.45	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1271.77	1434.04	22.99%	76.84%	-4.64	0-6
2009-10-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-42	1267.13	1648.72	12.70%	87.18%	-8.86	0-7
2009-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1258.27	1306.62	36.49%	63.29%	+19.47	1-7
2009-11-15	New Orleans Saints	L 23-28	1277.74	1673.78	11.81%	88.08%	-3.07	1-8
2009-11-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-21	1274.67	1583.58	18.10%	81.75%	-5.96	1-9
2009-11-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1268.71	1408.50	36.87%	62.91%	-13.57	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1255.14	1444.68	20.33%	79.51%	-6.70	1-11
2009-12-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-47	1248.44	1539.92	12.44%	87.45%	-9.15	1-12
2009-12-20	Houston Texans	L 13-16	1239.29	1507.44	21.83%	78.00%	-4.40	1-13
2009-12-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-31	1234.89	1577.31	9.58%	90.33%	-5.10	1-14
2010-01-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-28	1229.79	1476.06	24.05%	75.77%	-13.14	1-15
2009-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-34	1484.77	1518.29	51.84%	47.92%	-21.75	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-33	1463.02	1441.99	46.13%	53.64%	-19.36	0-2
2009-09-27	New York Giants	L 0-24	1443.66	1602.83	34.32%	65.47%	-19.58	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1424.08	1464.51	37.55%	62.23%	-7.57	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-33	1416.51	1616.00	19.42%	80.42%	-9.85	0-5
2009-10-18	Carolina Panthers	L 21-28	1406.66	1481.00	45.98%	53.79%	-14.16	0-6
2009-10-25	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1392.50	1624.90	20.73%	79.10%	-12.77	0-7
2009-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-28	1379.73	1507.97	38.43%	61.34%	+22.56	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-25	1402.29	1501.69	29.99%	69.81%	-4.93	1-8
2009-11-22	New Orleans Saints	L 7-38	1397.36	1676.85	20.74%	79.10%	-13.45	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1383.91	1540.58	23.56%	76.26%	-4.75	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-16	1379.16	1475.40	30.37%	69.42%	-11.18	1-11
2009-12-13	New York Jets	L 3-26	1367.98	1521.22	35.09%	64.69%	-19.59	1-12
2009-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-7	1348.39	1410.19	34.72%	65.07%	+31.20	2-12
2009-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1379.59	1697.16	10.89%	89.00%	+17.92	3-12
2010-01-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-20	1397.51	1541.77	36.28%	63.50%	-13.36	3-13
2009-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1595.49	1643.85	36.49%	63.29%	-7.36	0-1
2009-09-20	Houston Texans	L 31-34	1588.13	1469.63	72.07%	27.74%	-14.52	0-2
2009-09-27	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1573.61	1528.23	49.63%	50.14%	-15.28	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-37	1558.33	1440.21	59.95%	39.82%	-31.19	0-4
2009-10-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-31	1527.14	1625.47	42.58%	57.19%	-23.24	0-5
2009-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 0-59	1503.90	1597.44	30.70%	69.09%	-27.46	0-6
2009-11-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-13	1476.44	1438.68	61.87%	37.91%	+18.20	1-6
2009-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-27	1494.64	1450.76	49.41%	50.36%	+15.50	2-6
2009-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1510.14	1418.39	68.87%	30.92%	+17.64	3-6
2009-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 20-17	1527.78	1521.98	43.96%	55.81%	+11.24	4-6
2009-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1539.02	1589.53	49.40%	50.36%	+10.16	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1549.18	1690.95	25.14%	74.68%	-9.26	5-7
2009-12-13	St. Louis Rams	W 47-7	1539.92	1248.44	87.45%	12.44%	+9.15	6-7
2009-12-20	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1549.07	1512.97	61.64%	38.14%	+7.69	7-7
2009-12-25	San Diego Chargers	L 17-42	1556.76	1644.22	44.11%	55.66%	-25.67	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1531.09	1363.98	66.49%	33.30%	+7.75	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New York Giants	L 17-23	1486.33	1586.26	29.93%	69.87%	-8.54	0-1
2009-09-20	St. Louis Rams	W 9-7	1477.79	1317.96	76.59%	23.24%	+3.83	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1481.62	1320.06	65.78%	34.01%	-17.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1464.51	1424.08	62.23%	37.55%	+7.58	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1472.09	1472.31	43.11%	56.66%	-8.70	2-3
2009-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-14	1463.39	1325.13	74.30%	25.52%	-24.43	2-4
2009-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1438.96	1607.97	33.06%	66.73%	-12.17	2-5
2009-11-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1426.79	1556.12	26.51%	73.30%	-11.55	2-6
2009-11-15	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1415.24	1504.54	43.85%	55.92%	+20.57	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-7	1435.81	1571.78	25.77%	74.04%	-3.00	3-7
2009-11-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1432.81	1618.78	20.67%	79.17%	-4.16	3-8
2009-12-06	New Orleans Saints	L 30-33	1428.65	1710.70	20.50%	79.34%	-4.14	3-9
2009-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-13	1424.51	1357.71	52.71%	47.06%	+25.10	4-9
2009-12-21	New York Giants	L 12-45	1449.61	1545.83	42.87%	56.89%	-28.67	4-10
2009-12-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-17	1420.94	1581.99	34.08%	65.71%	-16.35	4-11
2010-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-23	1404.59	1669.90	14.17%	85.71%	-0.96	4-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2010-01-10	Green Bay Packers	W 51-45	1548.40	1611.33	47.73%	52.27%	+14.86	1-0
2010-01-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-45	1563.26	1670.72	29.11%	70.89%	-18.81	1-1
2010-01-10	@ New England Patriots	W 33-14	1616.07	1637.06	40.32%	59.68%	+30.21	1-0
2010-01-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-20	1646.28	1664.13	40.75%	59.25%	-19.51	1-1
2010-01-09	New York Jets	L 14-24	1491.28	1589.08	42.76%	57.24%	-15.70	0-1
2010-01-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1629.38	1646.18	54.36%	45.64%	+23.69	1-0
2010-01-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-34	1653.07	1608.57	49.62%	50.38%	-32.07	1-1
2010-01-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 45-51	1611.33	1548.40	52.27%	47.73%	-14.86	0-1
2010-01-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1664.13	1646.28	59.25%	40.75%	+19.51	1-0
2010-01-24	New York Jets	W 30-17	1683.64	1618.00	65.69%	34.31%	+14.37	2-0
2010-02-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1698.01	1696.88	50.16%	49.84%	-21.79	2-1
2010-01-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-3	1608.57	1653.07	50.38%	49.62%	+32.07	1-0
2010-01-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-31	1640.64	1689.53	36.52%	63.48%	-7.34	1-1
2010-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-33	1637.06	1616.07	59.68%	40.32%	-30.20	0-1
2010-01-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 45-14	1670.72	1563.26	70.89%	29.11%	+18.81	1-0
2010-01-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1689.53	1640.64	63.48%	36.52%	+7.35	2-0
2010-02-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1696.88	1698.01	49.84%	50.16%	+21.79	3-0
2010-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1589.08	1491.28	57.24%	42.76%	+15.70	1-0
2010-01-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1604.78	1670.85	34.26%	65.74%	+13.22	2-0
2010-01-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-30	1618.00	1683.64	34.31%	65.69%	-14.36	2-1
2010-01-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-34	1646.18	1629.38	45.64%	54.36%	-23.70	0-1
2010-01-17	New York Jets	L 14-17	1670.85	1604.78	65.74%	34.26%	-13.22	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2009-12-27	10.89%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1379.59	20	@ New Orleans Saints	1697.16	17
2	2009-12-06	12.36%	Oakland Raiders	1340.09	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1632.79	24
3	2009-11-22	17.34%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1341.05	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1658.96	24
4	2009-12-10	17.66%	@ Cleveland Browns	1301.09	13	Pittsburgh Steelers	1615.18	6
5	2010-01-03	19.24%	Kansas City Chiefs	1289.60	44	@ Denver Broncos	1491.14	24
6	2010-01-03	20.47%	@ Buffalo Bills	1396.50	30	Indianapolis Colts	1678.89	7
7	2009-12-27	20.79%	New York Jets	1528.60	29	@ Indianapolis Colts	1713.27	15
8	2009-10-11	21.35%	Cincinnati Bengals	1460.66	17	@ Baltimore Ravens	1639.48	14
9	2009-12-20	22.02%	Oakland Raiders	1332.61	20	@ Denver Broncos	1504.52	19
10	2009-11-15	22.56%	Cincinnati Bengals	1514.50	18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1680.97	12
11	2009-10-18	22.91%	@ Oakland Raiders	1368.48	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1625.85	9
12	2009-12-19	22.97%	Dallas Cowboys	1558.35	24	@ New Orleans Saints	1720.80	17
13	2009-10-18	25.52%	Kansas City Chiefs	1325.13	14	@ Washington Redskins	1463.39	6
14	2009-09-20	27.74%	Houston Texans	1469.63	34	@ Tennessee Titans	1588.13	31
15	2009-09-20	28.14%	New Orleans Saints	1535.90	48	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1650.90	22
16	2009-10-18	28.37%	Buffalo Bills	1404.00	16	@ New York Jets	1517.07	13
17	2009-11-01	28.95%	Carolina Panthers	1469.32	34	@ Arizona Cardinals	1577.46	21
18	2009-11-22	28.95%	@ Oakland Raiders	1334.03	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1536.50	17
19	2009-09-27	29.15%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1437.47	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1638.24	20
20	2009-09-20	31.20%	Cincinnati Bengals	1416.36	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1505.82	24
21	2009-11-15	31.30%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1426.75	24	@ New York Jets	1515.41	22
22	2009-09-13	31.54%	San Francisco 49ers	1456.33	20	@ Arizona Cardinals	1543.04	16
23	2009-12-28	32.09%	@ Chicago Bears	1425.65	36	Minnesota Vikings	1602.31	30
24	2009-10-25	32.79%	Buffalo Bills	1418.39	20	@ Carolina Panthers	1495.16	9
25	2009-09-27	34.01%	@ Detroit Lions	1320.06	19	Washington Redskins	1481.62	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2009-12-27	43.01	Carolina Panthers	41	1510.41	34.42%	@ New York Giants	9	1574.50	65.37%
2	2009-09-20	42.49	New Orleans Saints	48	1535.90	28.14%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	22	1650.90	71.66%
3	2010-01-03	41.91	Kansas City Chiefs	44	1289.60	19.24%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1491.14	80.61%
4	2009-10-11	37.36	@ Seattle Seahawks	41	1422.46	49.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	0	1471.40	50.14%
5	2009-10-25	36.85	@ Cincinnati Bengals	45	1454.34	46.23%	Chicago Bears	10	1526.91	53.53%
6	2009-10-11	34.43	Atlanta Falcons	45	1543.74	49.75%	@ San Francisco 49ers	10	1497.50	50.02%
7	2009-12-27	34.38	New York Jets	29	1528.60	20.79%	@ Indianapolis Colts	15	1713.27	79.05%
8	2010-01-03	34.02	Green Bay Packers	33	1577.31	42.42%	@ Arizona Cardinals	7	1582.42	57.35%
9	2009-12-20	33.12	@ Carolina Panthers	26	1477.29	34.45%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1635.43	65.33%
10	2010-01-17 *	32.07	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1608.57	50.38%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1653.07	49.62%
11	2009-12-20	31.20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	1348.39	34.72%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1410.19	65.07%
12	2009-10-04	31.19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	37	1440.21	39.82%	Tennessee Titans	17	1558.33	59.95%
13	2009-11-26	31.16	@ Denver Broncos	26	1457.80	39.89%	New York Giants	6	1575.42	59.88%
14	2010-01-03	31.03	@ Dallas Cowboys	24	1598.35	45.34%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1677.21	54.43%
15	2010-01-10 *	30.21	Baltimore Ravens	33	1616.07	40.32%	@ New England Patriots	14	1637.06	59.68%
16	2009-11-01	29.71	Carolina Panthers	34	1469.32	28.95%	@ Arizona Cardinals	21	1577.46	70.85%
17	2009-11-29	29.61	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1393.10	38.05%	Miami Dolphins	14	1524.19	61.73%
18	2009-12-14	29.12	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1448.33	35.15%	Arizona Cardinals	9	1601.16	64.64%
19	2009-10-25	28.76	New York Jets	38	1502.68	59.70%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1386.37	40.07%
20	2009-12-21	28.67	New York Giants	45	1545.83	56.89%	@ Washington Redskins	12	1449.61	42.87%
21	2009-09-13	28.14	New York Jets	24	1483.26	41.11%	@ Houston Texans	7	1497.77	58.66%
22	2009-12-06	27.52	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1622.95	54.25%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1545.33	45.51%
23	2009-10-18	27.46	@ New England Patriots	59	1597.44	69.09%	Tennessee Titans	0	1503.90	30.70%
24	2009-09-27	26.99	Indianapolis Colts	31	1588.42	49.15%	@ Arizona Cardinals	10	1546.35	50.61%
25	2009-09-27	26.67	Denver Broncos	23	1462.65	48.51%	@ Oakland Raiders	3	1425.01	51.25%