2009 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New Orleans Saints

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Indianapolis Colts

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2006

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.89 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.11 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

2.68 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.68 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	10	6	.625	-	427	285	+142	10.24	-0.24
2	New York Jets Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	348	236	+112	8.29	+0.71
3	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	3	360	390	-30	7.36	-0.36
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	4	258	326	-68	6.16	-0.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	6	.625	-	305	291	+14	7.73	+2.27
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	391	261	+130	10.63	-1.63
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	1	368	324	+44	11.07	-2.07
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	245	375	-130	5.19	-0.19

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	14	2	.875	-	416	307	+109	11.25	+2.75
2	Houston Texans	9	7	.562	5	388	333	+55	8.06	+0.94
3	Tennessee Titans	8	8	.500	6	354	402	-48	8.51	-0.51
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	9	.438	7	290	380	-90	6.99	+0.01

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	13	3	.812	-	454	320	+134	10.11	+2.89
2	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	5	326	324	+2	7.53	+0.47
3	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	8	197	379	-182	5.23	-0.23
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	9	294	424	-130	4.60	-0.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	5	.688	-	361	250	+111	8.87	+2.13
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	-	429	337	+92	10.81	+0.19
3	New York Giants	8	8	.500	3	402	427	-25	9.34	-1.34
4	Washington Redskins	4	12	.250	7	266	336	-70	6.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	4	.750	-	470	312	+158	10.59	+1.41
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	461	297	+164	9.17	+1.83
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	5	327	375	-48	7.88	-0.88
4	Detroit Lions	2	14	.125	10	262	494	-232	4.03	-2.03

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	-	510	341	+169	10.98	+2.02
2	Atlanta Falcons	9	7	.562	4	363	325	+38	8.53	+0.47
3	Carolina Panthers	8	8	.500	5	315	308	+7	6.94	+1.06
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	13	.188	10	244	400	-156	5.17	-2.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Arizona Cardinals Division	10	6	.625	-	375	325	+50	9.96	+0.04
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	8	.500	2	330	281	+49	7.64	+0.36
3	Seattle Seahawks	5	11	.312	5	280	390	-110	6.93	-1.93
4	St. Louis Rams	1	15	.062	9	175	436	-261	3.52	-2.52

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 24

Cincinnati Bengals 14

Jan 9

Baltimore Ravens 33

New England Patriots 14

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens 3

Jan 16

New York Jets 17

San Diego Chargers 14

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Indianapolis Colts 30

New York Jets 17

Jan 24

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 34

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Jan 9

Arizona Cardinals 51

Green Bay Packers 45

Jan 10

Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints 45

Arizona Cardinals 14

Jan 16

Minnesota Vikings 34

Dallas Cowboys 3

Jan 17

Conference Championship

New Orleans Saints 31

Minnesota Vikings 28

Jan 24

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints 31

Indianapolis Colts 17

Feb 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1671	13	10.11	+2.89	97.32%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1671	13	10.98	+2.02	93.09%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1664	14	11.25	+2.75	97.76%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1646	11	10.81	+0.19	64.19%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1637	10	10.24	-0.24	55.20%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1629	11	8.87	+2.13	92.14%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1616	9	10.63	-1.63	26.13%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1615	9	11.07	-2.07	18.92%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1611	11	9.17	+1.83	89.44%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1609	12	10.59	+1.41	85.48%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1589	9	8.29	+0.71	73.94%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1562	8	6.94	+1.06	79.61%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1555	9	8.53	+0.47	69.47%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1548	9	8.06	+0.94	77.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1548	10	9.96	+0.04	61.08%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1539	8	8.51	-0.51	49.85%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1506	8	9.34	-1.34	32.90%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1491	10	7.73	+2.27	93.97%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1489	8	7.64	+0.36	68.39%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1477	7	7.36	-0.36	53.58%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1457	7	7.88	-0.88	42.38%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1449	8	7.53	+0.47	70.13%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1411	6	6.16	-0.16	58.31%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1404	4	6.68	-2.68	11.34%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1397	7	6.99	+0.01	61.39%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1384	3	5.17	-2.17	18.32%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1376	5	5.19	-0.19	58.11%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1356	5	6.93	-1.93	22.26%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1332	4	4.60	-0.60	49.58%	0	2	3	5	6	8	12
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1316	5	5.23	-0.23	57.26%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1226	2	4.03	-2.03	17.86%	0	1	3	4	5	7	12
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1217	1	3.52	-2.52	9.88%	0	1	2	3	5	6	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	-	-
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (3.0 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	-	4-0 (3.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	-
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	-
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	-

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	-	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	-	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	-	2-2 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	-	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	-	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	-	-	0-4 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.39%	0.59%	1.37%	1.56%	1.56%	0.78%	0.59%	6.84%
7–13	0.59%	2.34%	4.49%	3.71%	2.93%	1.95%	1.56%	17.58%
14–20	1.37%	4.49%	7.81%	6.05%	3.71%	1.17%	0.39%	25.00%
21–27	1.56%	3.71%	6.05%	5.86%	4.10%	1.37%	0.98%	23.63%
28–34	1.56%	2.93%	3.71%	4.10%	1.95%	1.17%	0.20%	15.62%
35–41	0.78%	1.95%	1.17%	1.37%	1.17%	0.78%	0.20%	7.42%
42+	0.59%	1.56%	0.39%	0.98%	0.20%	0.20%	—	3.91%
Total	6.84%	17.58%	25.00%	23.63%	15.62%	7.42%	3.91%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.47	21.47	+0.00
SD	10.72	10.72	16.61
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	59	59	+59
Min	0	0	-59

Games Played: 256

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.44	20.31	+3.12
SD	9.60	8.10	15.26
CV	0.41	0.40	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	7	3	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.69	20.31	+2.38
SD	9.55	11.32	16.11
CV	0.42	0.56	—
Max	45	37	+35
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.44	16.31	+8.12
SD	10.76	10.04	16.16
CV	0.44	0.62	—
Max	48	33	+45
Min	7	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.12	20.38	-4.25
SD	9.41	10.84	16.23
CV	0.58	0.53	—
Max	33	41	+23
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	19.25	+0.44
SD	10.06	8.58	15.26
CV	0.51	0.45	—
Max	41	38	+32
Min	6	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.44	23.44	-3.00
SD	11.92	11.11	17.11
CV	0.58	0.47	—
Max	48	45	+24
Min	6	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.06	18.19	+0.88
SD	10.03	9.01	15.47
CV	0.53	0.50	—
Max	45	37	+35
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.31	23.44	-8.12
SD	12.18	10.95	13.68
CV	0.80	0.47	—
Max	41	38	+14
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.56	15.62	+6.94
SD	9.60	9.56	10.83
CV	0.43	0.61	—
Max	38	33	+24
Min	7	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.38	20.25	+0.12
SD	10.28	11.87	17.80
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	44	44	+31
Min	3	3	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.38	30.88	-14.50
SD	9.84	10.30	11.63
CV	0.60	0.33	—
Max	38	48	+5
Min	0	14	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.81	18.56	+10.25
SD	7.57	12.75	15.22
CV	0.26	0.69	—
Max	48	38	+38
Min	17	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.25	20.81	+3.44
SD	7.76	8.63	12.25
CV	0.32	0.41	—
Max	34	35	+27
Min	7	6	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	19.19	+6.81
SD	9.75	8.68	13.82
CV	0.38	0.45	—
Max	42	34	+36
Min	7	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.12	23.75	-5.62
SD	10.39	8.27	14.85
CV	0.57	0.35	—
Max	37	41	+20
Min	0	14	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	26.50	-8.12
SD	9.84	12.06	14.28
CV	0.54	0.46	—
Max	44	44	+20
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	56.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	24.38	-1.88
SD	8.27	8.52	10.73
CV	0.37	0.35	—
Max	38	46	+28
Min	7	10	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	43.75%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.38	19.50	+9.88
SD	9.30	9.51	16.12
CV	0.32	0.49	—
Max	44	36	+37
Min	7	7	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.69	17.81	+8.88
SD	11.34	10.92	18.56
CV	0.42	0.61	—
Max	59	38	+59
Min	9	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	50.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.88	21.31	+10.56
SD	11.66	7.79	12.20
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	48	34	+31
Min	10	7	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.12	26.69	-1.56
SD	12.16	14.33	21.72
CV	0.48	0.54	—
Max	45	48	+37
Min	6	0	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	14.75	+7.00
SD	8.84	10.67	16.01
CV	0.41	0.72	—
Max	38	31	+38
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.31	23.69	-11.38
SD	7.12	9.27	13.72
CV	0.58	0.39	—
Max	27	44	+4
Min	0	9	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.81	21.06	+5.75
SD	11.49	10.80	16.33
CV	0.43	0.51	—
Max	45	48	+28
Min	0	7	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	20.25	+2.75
SD	8.91	7.07	7.40
CV	0.39	0.35	—
Max	38	36	+18
Min	6	10	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.38	20.00	+8.38
SD	7.09	9.14	13.30
CV	0.25	0.46	—
Max	43	38	+30
Min	20	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.62	17.56	+3.06
SD	6.75	12.80	16.37
CV	0.33	0.73	—
Max	35	45	+35
Min	10	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	24.38	-6.88
SD	10.37	12.82	21.21
CV	0.59	0.53	—
Max	41	48	+41
Min	3	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.94	27.25	-16.31
SD	6.69	10.94	14.24
CV	0.61	0.40	—
Max	23	47	+7
Min	0	9	-40

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	25.00	-9.75
SD	9.69	8.56	13.41
CV	0.64	0.34	—
Max	38	38	+17
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	25.12	-3.00
SD	12.19	13.33	22.46
CV	0.55	0.53	—
Max	47	59	+40
Min	0	7	-59

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	21.00	-4.38
SD	9.11	10.02	11.79
CV	0.55	0.48	—
Max	34	45	+21
Min	0	7	-33

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+0.4
Allowed	0.46	-0.4
Differential	0.86	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	13	10.11	+2.89
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	11.25	+2.75
3	Cincinnati Bengals	10	7.73	+2.27
4	Dallas Cowboys	11	8.87	+2.13
5	New Orleans Saints	13	10.98	+2.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	4	6.68	-2.68
2	St. Louis Rams	1	3.52	-2.52
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	5.17	-2.17
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	11.07	-2.07
5	Detroit Lions	2	4.03	-2.03

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	13	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 285
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	Sep 13 – Dec 17	1 in 231
3	San Diego Chargers	11	Oct 25 – Jan 3	1 in 121
4	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 13 – Oct 19	1 in 103
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	Sep 20 – Oct 11	1 in 93

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Nov 15 – Dec 10	1 in 2,235
2	New Orleans Saints	3	Dec 19 – Jan 3	1 in 103
3	Tennessee Titans	6	Sep 10 – Oct 18	1 in 72
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	Sep 13 – Oct 25	1 in 28
5	Indianapolis Colts	2	Dec 27 – Jan 3	1 in 23

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	66.15%	22.79%	8.54%	2.51%
New York Jets	19.72%	38.48%	27.61%	14.19%
Miami Dolphins	10.56%	26.20%	36.54%	26.70%
Buffalo Bills	3.57%	12.52%	27.31%	56.60%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.54%	37.35%	8.35%	0.77%
Baltimore Ravens	42.13%	45.13%	11.57%	1.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.12%	15.66%	63.67%	16.56%
Cleveland Browns	0.21%	1.86%	16.42%	81.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	74.18%	18.13%	6.09%	1.61%
Tennessee Titans	13.21%	37.44%	30.36%	18.99%
Houston Texans	9.15%	28.92%	34.98%	26.95%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.46%	15.52%	28.56%	52.46%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	78.27%	18.05%	3.13%	0.55%
Denver Broncos	18.03%	55.67%	19.72%	6.58%
Oakland Raiders	2.44%	16.43%	44.37%	36.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.26%	9.84%	32.78%	56.12%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	57.19%	26.57%	12.75%	3.49%
New York Giants	23.27%	34.44%	29.66%	12.63%
Dallas Cowboys	17.34%	30.57%	35.75%	16.34%
Washington Redskins	2.20%	8.42%	21.84%	67.54%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	63.38%	26.69%	9.44%	0.49%
Green Bay Packers	26.37%	43.96%	27.08%	2.59%
Chicago Bears	10.11%	28.08%	54.64%	7.16%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	1.26%	8.84%	89.75%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	77.29%	18.19%	4.02%	0.50%
Atlanta Falcons	16.76%	50.81%	25.06%	7.36%
Carolina Panthers	5.23%	24.28%	46.85%	23.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.71%	6.72%	24.07%	68.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	72.22%	20.63%	6.69%	0.46%
San Francisco 49ers	17.15%	44.59%	33.36%	4.90%
Seattle Seahawks	10.39%	32.37%	47.96%	9.29%
St. Louis Rams	0.24%	2.41%	11.99%	85.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Indianapolis Colts	26.94%	21.84%	15.56%	10.90%	7.68%	5.70%	3.94%	2.66%	1.85%	1.24%	0.77%	0.47%	0.28%	0.13%	0.04%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.66%	18.44%	14.56%	11.95%	10.00%	7.51%	5.14%	3.10%	2.22%	1.49%	0.95%	0.49%	0.26%	0.15%	0.06%	0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	17.99%	15.02%	13.48%	12.83%	12.09%	9.31%	6.64%	4.59%	3.06%	2.11%	1.30%	0.81%	0.40%	0.21%	0.14%	0.03%
New England Patriots	12.30%	14.72%	15.85%	13.84%	10.81%	8.61%	7.02%	5.20%	3.76%	2.81%	2.04%	1.38%	0.86%	0.49%	0.22%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	10.40%	13.49%	15.84%	15.64%	12.07%	8.93%	7.01%	5.50%	3.99%	2.63%	1.84%	1.23%	0.73%	0.38%	0.23%	0.08%
Tennessee Titans	2.62%	4.11%	5.22%	6.99%	9.04%	10.64%	10.51%	9.91%	9.11%	8.28%	7.08%	5.89%	4.55%	3.28%	2.04%	0.74%
New York Jets	1.64%	3.43%	5.34%	6.93%	8.15%	9.74%	10.97%	9.95%	9.20%	8.39%	7.67%	6.14%	5.06%	3.72%	2.57%	1.09%
Houston Texans	1.43%	2.62%	3.73%	5.22%	7.11%	8.94%	9.38%	9.73%	9.74%	9.43%	8.83%	7.54%	6.45%	5.06%	3.35%	1.44%
Denver Broncos	0.84%	1.80%	2.98%	4.30%	5.76%	7.20%	9.05%	11.81%	11.08%	10.11%	8.97%	8.48%	6.54%	5.04%	3.57%	2.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.84%	1.47%	2.34%	3.52%	5.49%	6.72%	8.18%	9.89%	12.10%	12.58%	11.40%	8.73%	6.66%	4.99%	3.43%	1.67%
Miami Dolphins	0.84%	1.66%	2.67%	3.63%	5.09%	6.55%	7.70%	8.46%	9.19%	9.74%	10.08%	9.41%	8.39%	7.35%	6.02%	3.22%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.34%	0.84%	1.36%	2.21%	3.37%	4.84%	6.17%	7.22%	8.55%	9.52%	10.40%	11.04%	11.40%	10.12%	8.12%	4.50%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%	0.38%	0.71%	1.23%	1.87%	2.80%	4.02%	4.95%	6.22%	7.75%	9.28%	10.63%	12.35%	13.90%	13.82%	9.97%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.08%	0.20%	0.39%	0.73%	1.17%	1.96%	3.21%	4.11%	5.53%	7.71%	10.88%	12.92%	14.58%	15.98%	20.54%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.07%	0.09%	0.24%	0.43%	0.77%	1.30%	2.07%	3.37%	4.79%	6.51%	8.75%	12.34%	16.66%	21.11%	21.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.18%	0.32%	0.56%	1.01%	1.77%	2.45%	3.60%	5.17%	8.15%	10.81%	13.93%	19.28%	32.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New Orleans Saints	23.61%	20.13%	16.73%	12.16%	8.07%	6.16%	4.68%	3.09%	2.10%	1.40%	0.89%	0.56%	0.26%	0.11%	0.04%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.56%	17.05%	13.61%	11.11%	9.12%	7.07%	5.42%	4.16%	3.16%	2.31%	1.53%	0.97%	0.59%	0.24%	0.08%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	18.32%	17.51%	15.27%	12.00%	9.42%	7.69%	6.19%	4.58%	3.30%	2.38%	1.61%	0.97%	0.45%	0.22%	0.07%	0.02%
Arizona Cardinals	10.59%	13.11%	14.32%	14.65%	11.09%	8.79%	7.33%	6.26%	4.62%	3.31%	2.47%	1.83%	1.04%	0.37%	0.15%	0.05%
New York Giants	7.68%	7.86%	8.28%	9.43%	10.85%	10.02%	8.96%	8.61%	7.83%	6.49%	5.13%	3.87%	2.87%	1.48%	0.52%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	5.34%	7.27%	8.52%	9.57%	10.54%	11.12%	10.50%	8.70%	7.91%	6.97%	5.46%	3.82%	2.24%	1.24%	0.59%	0.21%
Dallas Cowboys	4.36%	5.69%	6.71%	8.03%	9.55%	9.74%	9.64%	9.51%	9.57%	8.10%	6.41%	5.12%	4.07%	2.30%	0.94%	0.26%
Atlanta Falcons	3.07%	4.39%	5.66%	7.02%	9.05%	10.32%	11.12%	10.09%	9.20%	8.36%	7.20%	5.71%	4.39%	2.79%	1.27%	0.37%
Chicago Bears	1.37%	2.43%	3.48%	4.53%	6.20%	7.69%	8.49%	9.51%	10.54%	11.85%	11.30%	9.60%	6.45%	3.66%	2.08%	0.83%
San Francisco 49ers	0.90%	1.95%	3.15%	4.59%	5.71%	7.33%	9.09%	10.69%	10.73%	10.45%	10.30%	10.14%	7.34%	4.39%	2.23%	1.00%
Seattle Seahawks	0.34%	0.89%	1.56%	2.64%	3.52%	4.77%	6.36%	8.52%	9.13%	10.34%	12.13%	13.73%	11.59%	7.37%	4.55%	2.58%
Carolina Panthers	0.58%	1.04%	1.58%	2.40%	3.69%	4.76%	5.90%	7.28%	8.92%	10.65%	12.26%	12.01%	11.43%	9.14%	5.94%	2.41%
Washington Redskins	0.25%	0.55%	0.94%	1.45%	2.37%	3.25%	4.19%	5.66%	7.64%	9.25%	11.12%	13.55%	17.15%	12.38%	7.19%	3.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.10%	0.17%	0.36%	0.66%	1.00%	1.58%	2.43%	3.60%	5.17%	7.22%	9.52%	14.31%	20.88%	20.19%	12.79%
Detroit Lions	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.18%	0.34%	0.53%	1.05%	1.81%	2.82%	4.76%	9.12%	19.69%	29.46%	30.06%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.11%	0.22%	0.39%	0.70%	1.16%	2.15%	3.83%	6.71%	13.73%	24.70%	46.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Indianapolis Colts	15.47%	13.04%	11.15%	9.81%	8.09%	6.97%	5.74%	5.14%	4.11%	3.68%	3.07%	2.44%	2.18%	1.84%	1.53%	1.15%	1.04%	0.81%	0.72%	0.50%	0.42%	0.31%	0.26%	0.17%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	11.63%	11.60%	9.93%	10.06%	8.14%	8.24%	6.19%	6.05%	4.45%	4.11%	3.33%	3.09%	2.43%	2.29%	1.65%	1.49%	1.08%	1.04%	0.77%	0.68%	0.46%	0.38%	0.29%	0.23%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.75%	11.20%	10.13%	8.45%	7.78%	6.80%	6.23%	5.45%	4.90%	4.46%	3.80%	3.47%	2.63%	2.30%	1.65%	1.49%	1.18%	1.09%	0.78%	0.65%	0.49%	0.42%	0.27%	0.21%	0.13%	0.10%	0.08%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.14%	11.19%	8.79%	8.79%	7.22%	6.98%	6.06%	5.54%	4.91%	4.42%	3.81%	3.37%	2.97%	2.57%	2.24%	1.79%	1.69%	1.35%	1.27%	0.89%	0.76%	0.62%	0.50%	0.36%	0.30%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	8.99%	9.09%	8.48%	8.71%	7.71%	7.46%	6.21%	5.96%	5.03%	4.82%	4.16%	3.77%	3.18%	3.00%	2.42%	2.19%	1.71%	1.62%	1.25%	1.02%	0.78%	0.76%	0.47%	0.44%	0.26%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	9.95%	8.54%	8.34%	7.29%	7.41%	6.60%	6.84%	5.74%	5.97%	5.36%	4.49%	4.29%	3.39%	3.18%	2.40%	2.20%	1.64%	1.52%	1.12%	0.89%	0.71%	0.62%	0.47%	0.33%	0.22%	0.18%	0.13%	0.08%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	6.48%	6.67%	7.50%	7.31%	7.49%	7.34%	6.60%	6.64%	5.50%	5.34%	4.59%	4.25%	3.71%	3.28%	2.99%	2.36%	2.26%	1.76%	1.61%	1.31%	1.20%	0.95%	0.77%	0.61%	0.46%	0.34%	0.28%	0.17%	0.11%	0.07%	0.03%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	5.62%	5.77%	6.85%	6.68%	7.48%	7.44%	7.08%	7.41%	5.61%	6.07%	4.51%	4.71%	3.60%	3.50%	2.90%	3.00%	2.19%	1.96%	1.53%	1.44%	1.15%	0.83%	0.77%	0.53%	0.43%	0.33%	0.24%	0.16%	0.13%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	4.81%	5.56%	6.20%	6.63%	6.79%	7.26%	6.69%	7.29%	5.50%	5.75%	4.57%	4.81%	3.83%	3.79%	3.13%	3.19%	2.45%	2.31%	1.74%	1.70%	1.38%	1.22%	0.90%	0.86%	0.51%	0.48%	0.24%	0.19%	0.12%	0.05%	0.04%	<0.01%
New York Giants	2.95%	3.88%	4.07%	4.12%	4.51%	4.43%	5.14%	4.77%	5.72%	5.10%	5.22%	4.84%	5.08%	4.38%	4.54%	4.05%	4.07%	3.48%	3.33%	2.96%	2.63%	2.35%	1.97%	1.74%	1.40%	1.13%	0.78%	0.66%	0.32%	0.23%	0.11%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	2.18%	2.84%	3.50%	3.85%	4.29%	4.52%	4.92%	4.90%	5.44%	5.33%	5.40%	5.48%	5.27%	5.14%	4.46%	4.40%	3.98%	3.86%	3.45%	3.23%	2.72%	2.58%	1.82%	1.87%	1.19%	1.19%	0.70%	0.59%	0.39%	0.26%	0.14%	0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	1.59%	2.26%	2.66%	3.10%	3.47%	3.60%	4.19%	4.28%	4.92%	4.76%	5.09%	4.83%	5.22%	4.98%	4.96%	4.54%	4.79%	4.47%	4.05%	3.71%	3.34%	2.95%	2.69%	2.32%	1.92%	1.77%	1.20%	1.00%	0.58%	0.46%	0.21%	0.10%
Atlanta Falcons	1.08%	1.58%	2.04%	2.34%	2.82%	3.09%	3.59%	3.86%	4.56%	4.55%	5.05%	5.14%	5.41%	5.36%	5.10%	4.94%	4.64%	4.60%	4.41%	3.97%	3.84%	3.27%	2.98%	2.71%	2.32%	2.05%	1.55%	1.29%	0.82%	0.62%	0.28%	0.15%
Tennessee Titans	1.10%	1.40%	2.00%	2.15%	2.88%	2.77%	3.68%	3.55%	4.55%	4.43%	5.15%	5.02%	5.17%	5.08%	5.17%	4.72%	4.87%	4.45%	4.42%	4.06%	3.90%	3.41%	3.33%	2.76%	2.55%	2.02%	1.79%	1.36%	1.06%	0.67%	0.40%	0.10%
New York Jets	0.71%	1.02%	1.59%	2.00%	2.43%	2.78%	3.34%	3.63%	3.83%	4.21%	4.69%	4.78%	5.16%	5.18%	5.17%	4.99%	4.88%	4.56%	4.60%	4.11%	4.22%	3.67%	3.51%	2.98%	2.85%	2.32%	2.16%	1.64%	1.34%	0.90%	0.55%	0.21%
Houston Texans	0.56%	0.83%	1.23%	1.48%	1.83%	2.13%	2.52%	2.94%	3.41%	3.64%	4.28%	4.38%	4.76%	4.63%	5.05%	4.75%	5.19%	4.61%	5.15%	4.52%	4.67%	4.19%	4.33%	3.49%	3.65%	2.99%	2.79%	2.09%	1.70%	1.16%	0.74%	0.31%
Chicago Bears	0.41%	0.74%	1.01%	1.35%	1.62%	1.89%	2.40%	2.38%	3.12%	3.26%	3.83%	3.94%	4.34%	4.53%	4.71%	4.99%	5.07%	5.44%	5.41%	5.67%	5.15%	5.64%	4.27%	4.80%	3.27%	3.27%	2.29%	1.92%	1.31%	1.07%	0.56%	0.36%
San Francisco 49ers	0.26%	0.49%	0.71%	1.13%	1.31%	1.72%	2.04%	2.43%	2.79%	3.02%	3.56%	3.96%	4.38%	4.54%	5.02%	5.47%	4.96%	5.49%	5.06%	5.44%	4.96%	5.20%	4.61%	4.98%	3.73%	3.87%	2.56%	2.41%	1.58%	1.22%	0.65%	0.45%
Denver Broncos	0.30%	0.46%	0.82%	0.94%	1.39%	1.50%	1.98%	2.15%	2.71%	3.00%	3.40%	3.74%	4.12%	4.59%	4.78%	6.02%	4.96%	5.75%	4.92%	5.75%	4.70%	4.86%	4.45%	4.60%	3.76%	3.38%	3.07%	2.48%	2.20%	1.39%	1.29%	0.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.29%	0.48%	0.71%	0.85%	1.19%	1.39%	1.80%	1.92%	2.65%	2.92%	3.28%	3.62%	4.01%	4.46%	4.66%	5.12%	5.73%	6.17%	5.79%	6.15%	5.60%	5.65%	4.78%	4.28%	3.93%	3.12%	3.02%	2.14%	1.98%	1.14%	0.88%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	0.32%	0.44%	0.78%	0.84%	1.28%	1.33%	1.75%	1.89%	2.46%	2.57%	3.20%	3.18%	3.68%	3.82%	4.32%	4.25%	4.72%	4.53%	4.89%	5.00%	5.19%	5.14%	5.06%	4.85%	4.64%	4.18%	4.05%	3.54%	3.21%	2.46%	1.63%	0.82%
Seattle Seahawks	0.07%	0.21%	0.30%	0.47%	0.61%	0.86%	1.15%	1.43%	1.60%	1.90%	2.31%	2.65%	2.92%	3.36%	3.85%	4.47%	4.19%	4.84%	4.89%	5.48%	5.39%	6.15%	5.98%	6.88%	5.39%	6.00%	4.26%	4.04%	2.86%	2.54%	1.71%	1.24%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.28%	0.41%	0.55%	0.69%	0.92%	1.18%	1.21%	1.84%	1.85%	2.44%	2.38%	3.04%	3.07%	3.77%	3.72%	4.49%	4.44%	5.27%	5.17%	5.63%	5.78%	5.72%	5.91%	5.41%	5.77%	4.68%	4.67%	3.35%	3.19%	1.85%	1.16%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.10%	0.22%	0.38%	0.46%	0.64%	0.76%	1.04%	1.25%	1.59%	1.86%	2.30%	2.50%	2.91%	3.30%	3.58%	3.67%	4.48%	4.37%	4.89%	4.84%	5.57%	5.30%	6.04%	5.25%	6.18%	5.43%	5.68%	4.42%	4.45%	3.01%	2.39%	1.11%
Washington Redskins	0.06%	0.11%	0.19%	0.29%	0.40%	0.53%	0.68%	0.87%	1.08%	1.37%	1.53%	1.86%	2.10%	2.51%	2.87%	3.05%	3.82%	4.22%	4.58%	4.93%	5.43%	5.94%	6.30%	6.68%	7.38%	7.46%	6.18%	5.87%	4.26%	3.65%	2.28%	1.54%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.07%	0.15%	0.21%	0.31%	0.38%	0.51%	0.67%	0.81%	1.00%	1.30%	1.47%	1.82%	2.03%	2.45%	2.51%	3.08%	3.38%	3.81%	4.09%	4.79%	4.86%	5.76%	5.53%	6.74%	6.48%	7.34%	6.90%	7.42%	5.85%	5.19%	3.08%
Oakland Raiders	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.10%	0.14%	0.20%	0.28%	0.39%	0.50%	0.59%	0.77%	1.03%	1.34%	1.60%	1.80%	2.11%	2.62%	3.00%	3.68%	4.09%	5.16%	5.82%	6.51%	7.04%	7.89%	8.12%	9.27%	8.31%	10.19%	7.33%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.18%	0.28%	0.36%	0.44%	0.55%	0.72%	0.81%	1.22%	1.28%	1.76%	1.86%	2.46%	2.68%	3.38%	3.67%	4.57%	4.94%	6.25%	7.32%	8.16%	10.29%	8.79%	11.26%	8.56%	7.78%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.05%	0.10%	0.14%	0.20%	0.22%	0.37%	0.43%	0.63%	0.69%	0.94%	1.16%	1.60%	1.76%	2.30%	2.60%	3.34%	3.71%	4.53%	4.91%	6.55%	6.74%	8.93%	8.65%	11.09%	9.80%	10.64%	7.80%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.07%	0.12%	0.16%	0.23%	0.31%	0.39%	0.52%	0.73%	0.89%	0.97%	1.23%	1.69%	1.98%	2.47%	2.79%	3.79%	4.39%	5.35%	5.91%	7.69%	8.07%	11.02%	10.60%	15.66%	12.85%
Detroit Lions	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.10%	0.12%	0.17%	0.22%	0.34%	0.44%	0.54%	0.78%	1.02%	1.22%	1.59%	2.09%	2.60%	3.78%	4.90%	7.01%	9.73%	11.47%	15.79%	15.66%	20.18%
St. Louis Rams	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.11%	0.15%	0.22%	0.26%	0.36%	0.46%	0.58%	0.84%	1.09%	1.55%	1.96%	2.67%	3.62%	4.88%	7.20%	8.95%	14.14%	18.28%	32.42%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts	26.94%	23.22%	15.84%	8.17%	7.10%	6.67%	12.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.66%	16.37%	9.18%	4.33%	21.14%	10.32%	15.01%
Baltimore Ravens	17.99%	12.74%	7.62%	3.77%	24.47%	12.67%	20.73%
New England Patriots	12.30%	16.02%	20.39%	17.44%	4.61%	6.48%	22.76%
San Diego Chargers	10.40%	14.46%	21.33%	32.08%	1.70%	2.74%	17.28%
Tennessee Titans	2.62%	4.04%	3.87%	2.68%	10.44%	12.87%	63.48%
New York Jets	1.64%	3.75%	6.88%	7.45%	5.72%	9.37%	65.20%
Houston Texans	1.43%	2.73%	2.89%	2.10%	7.41%	10.59%	72.85%
Denver Broncos	0.84%	2.00%	4.37%	10.82%	2.75%	5.11%	74.12%
Miami Dolphins	0.84%	1.88%	3.54%	4.30%	3.58%	5.96%	79.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.84%	1.26%	1.20%	0.82%	6.27%	7.71%	81.91%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.34%	0.89%	1.19%	1.04%	2.99%	5.33%	88.22%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%	0.43%	1.12%	1.90%	1.05%	2.38%	93.00%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.09%	0.38%	1.94%	0.28%	0.74%	96.54%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.08%	0.40%	0.73%	98.66%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	0.04%	0.14%	1.08%	0.10%	0.32%	98.32%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New Orleans Saints	23.61%	20.89%	19.47%	13.32%	5.21%	5.00%	12.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.56%	16.27%	11.62%	5.74%	14.31%	8.79%	19.71%
Minnesota Vikings	18.32%	18.12%	15.78%	11.16%	8.64%	8.04%	19.94%
Arizona Cardinals	10.59%	14.01%	17.79%	29.83%	2.27%	3.48%	22.02%
New York Giants	7.68%	6.89%	5.67%	3.02%	16.61%	12.22%	47.90%
Green Bay Packers	5.34%	7.27%	7.43%	6.33%	11.87%	12.82%	48.94%
Dallas Cowboys	4.36%	5.07%	4.92%	2.99%	13.29%	11.50%	57.87%
Atlanta Falcons	3.07%	4.18%	5.17%	4.35%	10.43%	11.36%	61.45%
Chicago Bears	1.37%	2.51%	3.13%	3.10%	6.09%	8.28%	75.52%
San Francisco 49ers	0.90%	2.12%	4.08%	10.04%	3.08%	5.60%	74.17%
Carolina Panthers	0.58%	1.05%	1.69%	1.92%	3.50%	4.84%	86.43%
Seattle Seahawks	0.34%	0.97%	2.21%	6.86%	1.61%	3.46%	84.54%
Washington Redskins	0.25%	0.53%	0.74%	0.68%	2.43%	3.38%	91.98%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.10%	0.21%	0.36%	0.58%	0.99%	97.73%
Detroit Lions	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%	0.16%	99.64%
St. Louis Rams	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.21%	0.02%	0.07%	99.67%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+14.51%

Fortress

57.25%42.75%

Elo Value

Home Edge

20 Elo

0.049 points per Elo point

050.7760

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.33 points

Lean Home

-8+2.50+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

10.8

Wide Open

124815

Champion Preseason Odds

15%

New Orleans Saints, 1st of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

23.3%

Favored

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.47 · As Expected: 1.47 to 2.02 · Elevated: 2.02 to 2.75 · High Variance: 2.75 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.18 · Close: 4.18 to 5.66 · Off Target: 5.66 to 7.38 · Well Off Target: 7.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.38 · As Expected: 2.38 to 3.96 · More Than Expected: 3.96 to 6.33 · Far More Than Expected: 6.33 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.53 wins

As Expected

01.835

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.97

Pinpoint

04.9210

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

97.76%

Indianapolis Colts

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

9.88%

St. Louis Rams

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 32

As Expected

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 12

Fewer Than Expected

03.212

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.09

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

77%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

93%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%14%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.33

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.73

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.66

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.92

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.07

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.046

Well Within Noise

00.0940.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	73.74%	73.74%	46.37%	27.73%	14.79%
Indianapolis Colts	74.42%	74.42%	44.00%	24.80%	13.54%
San Diego Chargers	64.59%	64.59%	36.43%	20.27%	11.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.42%	64.42%	37.80%	20.88%	10.75%
New England Patriots	58.98%	58.98%	30.63%	15.60%	8.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.17%	63.17%	32.08%	15.45%	7.65%
Minnesota Vikings	61.52%	61.52%	32.47%	16.01%	7.45%
Baltimore Ravens	54.67%	54.67%	27.55%	13.22%	6.55%
Green Bay Packers	38.45%	33.14%	16.55%	8.03%	3.83%
Dallas Cowboys	32.70%	27.22%	14.18%	7.31%	3.70%
Arizona Cardinals	53.38%	52.71%	21.52%	8.65%	3.42%
New York Jets	29.41%	19.86%	8.65%	3.65%	1.73%
Atlanta Falcons	31.31%	21.04%	8.87%	3.73%	1.50%
New York Giants	37.52%	28.55%	10.53%	3.78%	1.33%
Tennessee Titans	29.86%	17.99%	6.77%	2.60%	1.06%
Houston Texans	22.99%	13.05%	4.91%	1.89%	0.84%
Carolina Panthers	11.95%	7.00%	2.97%	1.28%	0.55%
San Francisco 49ers	22.81%	11.99%	3.91%	1.25%	0.40%
Chicago Bears	20.61%	10.45%	3.17%	0.97%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	17.38%	8.62%	2.57%	0.79%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	16.00%	6.96%	2.18%	0.70%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	23.04%	10.44%	2.70%	0.69%	0.21%
Jacksonville Jaguars	10.55%	3.55%	0.76%	0.18%	0.05%
Washington Redskins	7.23%	2.65%	0.60%	0.16%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	6.46%	2.24%	0.53%	0.12%	0.04%
Seattle Seahawks	14.15%	4.85%	0.93%	0.19%	0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.14%	0.64%	0.13%	0.02%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	3.35%	0.75%	0.11%	0.03%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	1.27%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.64%	0.39%	0.06%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.34%	0.06%	<0.01%	-	-
St. Louis Rams	0.32%	0.04%	<0.01%	-	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		74.5%0.86%	69.7%1.17%	77.8%0.10%	67.5%4.01%	61.3%1.98%	37.3%4.73%	76.2%0.96%	82.6%0.35%	67.7%2.11%	40.8%7.72%	49.5%3.78%	81.4%0.68%	48.5%5.91%	36.3%11.49%	61.9%2.68%
Buffalo Bills	25.5%0.86%		40.6%0.26%	85.7%0.01%	43.0%0.30%	36.5%0.37%	15.2%0.80%	48.1%0.13%	58.3%0.01%	42.9%0.16%	20.2%1.03%	26.7%0.30%	61.5%0.04%	26.3%0.82%	15.2%0.89%	35.8%0.48%
Cincinnati Bengals	30.3%1.17%	59.4%0.26%		81.2%0.02%	51.0%1.04%	42.7%0.50%	20.1%1.87%	58.7%0.24%	69.1%0.08%	47.8%0.66%	24.4%2.94%	30.2%1.05%	70.7%0.15%	31.5%1.45%	21.4%3.89%	40.3%0.69%
Cleveland Browns	22.2%0.10%	14.3%0.01%	18.8%0.02%		37.2%0.09%	30.4%0.05%	13.0%0.13%	58.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.9%0.06%	17.5%0.23%	21.2%0.10%	36.4%0.01%	13.9%0.11%	14.3%0.29%	22.2%0.04%
Denver Broncos	32.5%4.01%	57.0%0.30%	49.0%1.04%	62.8%0.09%		42.2%1.34%	23.3%2.22%	59.1%0.59%	73.5%0.03%	48.0%0.88%	23.7%2.22%	32.6%1.46%	70.7%0.07%	31.3%3.68%	20.9%3.21%	42.1%1.90%
Houston Texans	38.7%1.98%	63.5%0.37%	57.3%0.50%	69.6%0.05%	57.8%1.34%		32.1%3.36%	69.4%0.25%	83.2%0.10%	58.1%1.03%	32.3%4.24%	42.3%1.73%	86.5%0.16%	40.0%2.23%	27.4%4.83%	49.0%0.81%
Indianapolis Colts	62.7%4.73%	84.8%0.80%	79.9%1.87%	87.0%0.13%	76.7%2.22%	67.9%3.36%		83.4%1.57%	79.1%0.15%	74.6%2.11%	51.4%4.33%	63.0%3.49%	87.0%0.30%	60.1%4.16%	43.9%4.07%	67.9%4.48%
Jacksonville Jaguars	23.8%0.96%	51.9%0.13%	41.3%0.24%	41.7%0.01%	40.9%0.59%	30.6%0.25%	16.6%1.57%		48.8%0.04%	33.2%0.42%	16.5%1.91%	23.9%0.81%	58.9%0.09%	21.3%1.03%	14.1%2.17%	25.7%0.32%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.4%0.35%	41.7%0.01%	30.9%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	26.5%0.03%	16.8%0.10%	20.9%0.15%	51.2%0.04%		22.1%0.07%	13.3%0.11%	17.8%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	18.3%0.31%	14.3%0.15%	39.8%0.12%
Miami Dolphins	32.3%2.11%	57.1%0.16%	52.2%0.66%	74.1%0.06%	52.0%0.88%	41.9%1.03%	25.4%2.11%	66.8%0.42%	77.9%0.07%		27.5%2.78%	36.2%0.88%	70.4%0.12%	33.0%2.03%	20.2%2.71%	43.9%1.35%
New England Patriots	59.2%7.72%	79.8%1.03%	75.6%2.94%	82.5%0.23%	76.3%2.22%	67.7%4.24%	48.6%4.33%	83.5%1.91%	86.7%0.11%	72.5%2.78%		59.0%5.37%	84.9%0.29%	57.3%6.68%	41.7%3.71%	68.8%5.36%
New York Jets	50.5%3.78%	73.3%0.30%	69.8%1.05%	78.8%0.10%	67.4%1.46%	57.7%1.73%	37.0%3.49%	76.1%0.81%	82.2%0.10%	63.8%0.88%	41.0%5.37%		81.4%0.19%	48.4%3.67%	35.2%4.17%	60.7%2.32%
Oakland Raiders	18.6%0.68%	38.5%0.04%	29.3%0.15%	63.6%0.01%	29.3%0.07%	13.5%0.16%	13.0%0.30%	41.1%0.09%	33.3%<0.01%	29.6%0.12%	15.1%0.29%	18.6%0.19%		17.0%0.56%	11.5%0.36%	23.9%0.31%
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.5%5.91%	73.7%0.82%	68.5%1.45%	86.1%0.11%	68.7%3.68%	60.0%2.23%	39.9%4.16%	78.7%1.03%	81.7%0.31%	67.0%2.03%	42.7%6.68%	51.6%3.67%	83.0%0.56%		37.1%9.61%	61.5%2.69%
San Diego Chargers	63.7%11.49%	84.8%0.89%	78.6%3.89%	85.7%0.29%	79.1%3.21%	72.6%4.83%	56.1%4.07%	85.9%2.17%	85.7%0.15%	79.8%2.71%	58.3%3.71%	64.8%4.17%	88.5%0.36%	62.9%9.61%		73.5%6.30%
Tennessee Titans	38.1%2.68%	64.2%0.48%	59.7%0.69%	77.8%0.04%	57.9%1.90%	51.0%0.81%	32.1%4.48%	74.3%0.32%	60.2%0.12%	56.1%1.35%	31.2%5.36%	39.3%2.32%	76.1%0.31%	38.5%2.69%	26.5%6.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		56.1%5.51%	53.0%1.95%	68.1%3.80%	45.3%6.29%	93.6%0.05%	48.3%6.94%	45.0%5.26%	36.2%3.43%	61.4%7.54%	41.3%6.17%	60.8%3.06%	75.0%1.68%	91.7%0.02%	76.4%0.35%	72.0%1.34%
Atlanta Falcons	43.9%5.51%		47.6%0.41%	61.9%1.35%	40.1%2.38%	89.7%0.03%	41.7%2.76%	39.2%4.03%	32.0%5.17%	58.6%2.59%	34.9%3.60%	55.0%1.79%	71.4%1.14%	82.9%0.03%	78.5%0.07%	70.7%0.46%
Carolina Panthers	47.0%1.95%	52.4%0.41%		65.8%0.52%	39.4%0.88%	83.3%0.01%	40.2%1.11%	38.5%1.49%	33.0%1.89%	57.4%0.99%	35.0%1.41%	58.9%0.67%	72.1%0.39%	71.4%<0.01%	78.9%0.02%	70.1%0.19%
Chicago Bears	31.9%3.80%	38.1%1.35%	34.2%0.52%		27.5%1.46%	100.0%<0.01%	28.9%1.32%	27.3%2.94%	18.9%2.86%	45.5%1.62%	24.1%2.20%	41.7%1.31%	60.1%0.79%	73.9%0.02%	58.2%0.09%	57.1%0.32%
Dallas Cowboys	54.7%6.29%	59.9%2.38%	60.6%0.88%	72.5%1.46%		93.8%0.03%	50.8%2.86%	49.0%4.27%	38.1%4.87%	66.2%1.89%	46.5%3.78%	66.2%2.16%	78.4%1.31%	93.2%0.04%	82.2%0.16%	81.8%0.31%
Detroit Lions	6.4%0.05%	10.3%0.03%	16.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	6.2%0.03%		5.9%0.02%	12.8%0.04%	9.6%0.05%	13.9%0.04%	19.0%0.04%	6.2%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	51.7%6.94%	58.3%2.76%	59.8%1.11%	71.1%1.32%	49.2%2.86%	94.1%0.02%		49.9%6.34%	37.3%5.10%	65.7%3.25%	43.5%4.01%	64.9%2.45%	77.0%1.54%	100.0%0.02%	76.5%0.17%	77.6%0.57%
Minnesota Vikings	55.0%5.26%	60.8%4.03%	61.5%1.49%	72.7%2.94%	51.0%4.27%	87.2%0.04%	50.1%6.34%		38.5%4.10%	68.5%4.83%	47.1%4.49%	67.1%2.85%	80.6%1.71%	86.5%0.04%	81.5%0.26%	78.1%0.97%
New Orleans Saints	63.8%3.43%	68.0%5.17%	67.0%1.89%	81.1%2.86%	61.9%4.87%	90.4%0.05%	62.7%5.10%	61.5%4.10%		75.3%5.57%	57.5%4.79%	75.8%2.22%	86.4%1.41%	100.0%0.02%	85.1%0.34%	85.2%1.18%
New York Giants	38.6%7.54%	41.4%2.59%	42.6%0.99%	54.5%1.62%	33.8%1.89%	86.1%0.04%	34.3%3.25%	31.5%4.83%	24.7%5.57%		29.1%4.33%	48.0%2.58%	65.5%1.68%	90.9%0.04%	66.1%0.18%	63.9%0.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	58.7%6.17%	65.1%3.60%	65.0%1.41%	75.9%2.20%	53.5%3.78%	81.0%0.04%	56.5%4.01%	52.9%4.49%	42.5%4.79%	70.9%4.33%		68.0%2.76%	82.0%1.76%	91.1%0.04%	80.1%0.27%	82.3%0.81%
San Francisco 49ers	39.2%3.06%	45.0%1.79%	41.1%0.67%	58.3%1.31%	33.8%2.16%	93.8%0.02%	35.1%2.45%	32.9%2.85%	24.2%2.22%	52.0%2.58%	32.0%2.76%		64.5%0.39%	100.0%<0.01%	65.6%0.13%	65.0%0.40%
Seattle Seahawks	25.0%1.68%	28.6%1.14%	27.9%0.39%	39.9%0.79%	21.6%1.31%	66.7%<0.01%	23.0%1.54%	19.4%1.71%	13.6%1.41%	34.5%1.68%	18.0%1.76%	35.5%0.39%		100.0%<0.01%	61.2%0.07%	44.5%0.27%
St. Louis Rams	8.3%0.02%	17.1%0.03%	28.6%<0.01%	26.1%0.02%	6.8%0.04%		0.0%0.02%	13.5%0.04%	0.0%0.02%	9.1%0.04%	8.9%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23.6%0.35%	21.5%0.07%	21.1%0.02%	41.8%0.09%	17.8%0.16%	66.7%<0.01%	23.5%0.17%	18.5%0.26%	14.9%0.34%	33.9%0.18%	19.9%0.27%	34.4%0.13%	38.8%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%		53.6%0.03%
Washington Redskins	28.0%1.34%	29.3%0.46%	29.9%0.19%	42.9%0.32%	18.2%0.31%	80.0%<0.01%	22.4%0.57%	21.9%0.97%	14.8%1.18%	36.1%0.39%	17.7%0.81%	35.0%0.40%	55.5%0.27%	66.7%<0.01%	46.4%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		76.4%0.34%	66.1%0.92%	87.1%0.03%	73.8%1.63%	65.0%1.83%	43.1%10.71%	81.2%0.51%	78.0%0.06%	69.1%1.38%	48.1%8.87%	54.4%3.03%	88.5%0.12%	49.4%12.38%	43.8%10.26%	61.3%2.60%
Buffalo Bills	23.6%0.34%		39.3%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	44.4%0.04%	37.3%0.07%	19.4%0.65%	70.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	26.4%0.14%	21.4%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.7%0.42%	17.1%0.40%	32.3%0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	33.9%0.92%	60.7%0.03%			56.7%0.13%	36.7%0.14%	25.3%1.68%	58.3%0.05%	60.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.12%	30.9%1.14%	37.5%0.25%	88.9%<0.01%	30.9%1.10%	26.7%1.14%	44.0%0.23%
Cleveland Browns	12.9%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%			66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	18.9%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	12.5%0.06%	33.3%0.02%		20.0%0.06%	19.0%0.04%	25.0%0.01%
Denver Broncos	26.2%1.63%	55.6%0.04%	43.3%0.13%	33.3%<0.01%		33.6%0.34%	20.5%2.71%	61.3%0.08%		46.1%0.20%	23.7%1.74%	33.9%0.44%	0.0%<0.01%	24.8%1.97%	22.8%0.68%	35.8%0.47%
Houston Texans	35.0%1.83%	62.7%0.07%	63.3%0.14%	50.0%<0.01%	66.4%0.34%		30.6%2.64%	76.0%0.03%	60.0%0.01%	57.3%0.24%	38.3%2.16%	46.7%0.54%	75.0%0.01%	38.0%2.50%	33.8%2.29%	49.2%0.26%
Indianapolis Colts	56.9%10.71%	80.6%0.65%	74.7%1.68%	81.1%0.09%	79.5%2.71%	69.4%2.64%		82.9%0.64%	91.7%0.12%	75.7%2.27%	54.6%15.47%	62.4%5.42%	86.0%0.21%	57.5%11.47%	51.4%16.54%	68.2%3.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	18.8%0.51%	29.4%0.02%	41.7%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	38.8%0.08%	24.0%0.03%	17.1%0.64%		50.0%<0.01%	50.8%0.06%	21.5%0.61%	23.8%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	21.2%0.68%	18.3%0.65%	33.3%0.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	22.0%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%			40.0%0.01%	8.3%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%		28.6%<0.01%	18.0%0.05%	14.3%0.01%		16.5%0.09%	15.4%0.01%	21.4%0.01%
Miami Dolphins	30.9%1.38%	50.0%0.01%	44.4%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%	53.9%0.20%	42.7%0.24%	24.3%2.27%	49.2%0.06%	71.4%<0.01%		29.7%0.75%	29.9%0.14%	89.5%0.02%	29.6%1.61%	25.2%1.43%	44.1%0.37%
New England Patriots	51.9%8.87%	73.6%0.14%	69.1%1.14%	87.5%0.06%	76.3%1.74%	61.7%2.16%	45.4%15.47%	78.5%0.61%	82.0%0.05%	70.3%0.75%		58.1%1.82%	87.1%0.12%	52.1%11.03%	46.3%11.97%	62.6%3.03%
New York Jets	45.6%3.03%	78.6%0.01%	62.5%0.25%	66.7%0.02%	66.1%0.44%	53.3%0.54%	37.6%5.42%	76.2%0.15%	85.7%0.01%	70.1%0.14%	41.9%1.82%		85.2%0.03%	45.1%3.87%	37.9%3.36%	57.4%0.77%
Oakland Raiders	11.5%0.12%	0.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%	14.0%0.21%	0.0%<0.01%		10.5%0.02%	12.9%0.12%	14.8%0.03%		19.9%0.16%	8.0%0.03%	25.6%0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	50.6%12.38%	74.3%0.42%	69.1%1.10%	80.0%0.06%	75.2%1.97%	62.0%2.50%	42.5%11.47%	78.8%0.68%	83.5%0.09%	70.4%1.61%	47.9%11.03%	54.9%3.87%	80.1%0.16%		44.1%12.71%	62.0%3.14%
San Diego Chargers	56.2%10.26%	82.9%0.40%	73.3%1.14%	81.0%0.04%	77.2%0.68%	66.2%2.29%	48.6%16.54%	81.7%0.65%	84.6%0.01%	74.8%1.43%	53.7%11.97%	62.1%3.36%	92.0%0.03%	55.9%12.71%		68.7%3.08%
Tennessee Titans	38.7%2.60%	67.7%0.09%	56.0%0.23%	75.0%0.01%	64.2%0.47%	50.8%0.26%	31.8%3.80%	66.7%0.07%	78.6%0.01%	55.9%0.37%	37.4%3.03%	42.6%0.77%	74.4%0.04%	38.0%3.14%	31.3%3.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		49.6%2.95%	50.0%0.95%	63.7%1.51%	40.4%3.83%	100.0%<0.01%	42.4%4.97%	40.5%10.53%	32.4%12.61%	55.1%3.82%	35.4%10.15%	59.3%0.66%	74.9%0.23%		75.7%0.11%	71.3%0.38%
Atlanta Falcons	50.4%2.95%		48.0%0.15%	64.6%0.45%	38.8%1.17%	100.0%<0.01%	42.1%1.70%	40.3%3.88%	32.1%4.34%	56.6%1.47%	36.0%4.09%	64.5%0.48%	78.9%0.23%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	73.0%0.11%
Carolina Panthers	50.0%0.95%	52.0%0.15%		61.8%0.16%	34.8%0.39%	100.0%<0.01%	46.8%0.56%	42.5%1.29%	32.0%1.31%	56.3%0.49%	35.3%1.42%	61.3%0.19%	63.6%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	65.4%0.03%
Chicago Bears	36.3%1.51%	35.4%0.45%	38.2%0.16%		28.9%0.69%	50.0%<0.01%	32.3%0.43%	29.9%1.43%	21.7%2.57%	41.8%0.79%	25.6%1.94%	45.0%0.29%	68.1%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	64.3%0.01%	63.5%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	59.6%3.83%	61.2%1.17%	65.2%0.39%	71.1%0.69%		100.0%<0.01%	51.5%1.93%	50.4%5.02%	42.8%6.06%	63.7%1.68%	45.4%5.38%	70.7%0.73%	83.4%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%	74.2%0.03%	87.9%0.09%
Detroit Lions	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	9.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	9.1%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	57.6%4.97%	57.9%1.70%	53.2%0.56%	67.7%0.43%	48.5%1.93%	100.0%<0.01%		48.6%5.13%	40.1%7.93%	61.4%2.43%	44.4%6.49%	65.9%0.94%	80.1%0.38%	100.0%<0.01%	91.4%0.03%	76.4%0.20%
Minnesota Vikings	59.5%10.53%	59.7%3.88%	57.5%1.29%	70.1%1.43%	49.6%5.02%	85.7%<0.01%	51.4%5.13%		41.9%14.36%	65.2%4.67%	45.4%11.26%	66.1%2.35%	81.3%0.95%	92.3%0.01%	86.7%0.13%	78.1%0.51%
New Orleans Saints	67.6%12.61%	67.9%4.34%	68.0%1.31%	78.3%2.57%	57.2%6.06%	90.9%0.01%	59.9%7.93%	58.1%14.36%		71.4%5.84%	53.6%13.76%	74.2%2.97%	85.6%1.23%	100.0%<0.01%	86.5%0.11%	81.9%0.65%
New York Giants	44.9%3.82%	43.4%1.47%	43.7%0.49%	58.2%0.79%	36.3%1.68%	100.0%<0.01%	38.6%2.43%	34.8%4.67%	28.6%5.84%		30.5%5.96%	53.5%0.89%	75.5%0.32%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.04%	65.3%0.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.6%10.15%	64.0%4.09%	64.7%1.42%	74.4%1.94%	54.6%5.38%	90.9%0.01%	55.6%6.49%	54.6%11.26%	46.4%13.76%	69.5%5.96%		72.2%2.37%	82.4%1.05%	100.0%<0.01%	82.6%0.13%	84.7%0.41%
San Francisco 49ers	40.7%0.66%	35.5%0.48%	38.7%0.19%	55.0%0.29%	29.3%0.73%	0.0%<0.01%	34.1%0.94%	33.9%2.35%	25.8%2.97%	46.5%0.89%	27.8%2.37%		57.1%0.03%		66.7%0.01%	52.2%0.07%
Seattle Seahawks	25.1%0.23%	21.1%0.23%	36.4%0.07%	31.9%0.12%	16.6%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%	19.9%0.38%	18.7%0.95%	14.4%1.23%	24.5%0.32%	17.6%1.05%	42.9%0.03%			75.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%
St. Louis Rams		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	7.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.3%0.11%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	35.7%0.01%	25.8%0.03%		8.6%0.03%	13.3%0.13%	13.5%0.11%	33.3%0.04%	17.4%0.13%	33.3%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	28.7%0.38%	27.0%0.11%	34.6%0.03%	36.5%0.05%	12.1%0.09%		23.6%0.20%	21.9%0.51%	18.1%0.65%	34.7%0.12%	15.3%0.41%	47.8%0.07%	50.0%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		82.4%0.09%	68.3%0.20%	85.7%<0.01%	70.7%0.38%	62.5%0.88%	43.0%8.63%	76.5%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	68.3%0.43%	46.5%5.17%	57.3%1.39%	81.2%0.02%	50.5%2.95%	43.4%6.02%	61.1%1.24%
Buffalo Bills	17.6%0.09%		50.0%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%	20.0%0.13%			50.0%<0.01%	20.5%0.04%	28.6%<0.01%		30.2%0.11%	16.3%0.12%	20.0%0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.7%0.20%	50.0%<0.01%			40.9%0.02%	37.9%0.06%	30.0%0.60%	66.7%<0.01%		41.2%0.03%	31.6%0.38%	31.5%0.09%	66.7%<0.01%	37.8%0.23%	29.1%0.45%	33.6%0.11%
Cleveland Browns	14.3%<0.01%					100.0%<0.01%	5.9%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%			25.0%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	28.6%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	29.3%0.38%	25.0%<0.01%	59.1%0.02%			33.8%0.07%	19.7%0.71%	66.7%<0.01%		36.4%0.04%	26.1%0.52%	30.4%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	23.3%0.48%	23.3%0.23%	39.0%0.10%
Houston Texans	37.5%0.88%	61.5%0.01%	62.1%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	66.2%0.07%		34.9%0.87%	87.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	59.3%0.06%	36.4%0.73%	50.8%0.20%	50.0%<0.01%	39.7%0.90%	34.7%1.04%	44.6%0.09%
Indianapolis Colts	57.0%8.63%	80.0%0.13%	70.0%0.60%	94.1%0.02%	80.3%0.71%	65.1%0.87%		75.2%0.12%	89.3%0.03%	75.5%0.57%	54.4%8.20%	62.3%2.13%	81.5%0.03%	56.0%10.49%	50.6%10.39%	65.0%1.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	23.5%0.13%		33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	24.8%0.12%			75.0%<0.01%	24.6%0.12%	50.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	20.4%0.16%	17.4%0.15%	53.8%0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%	10.7%0.03%			0.0%<0.01%	13.3%0.01%	16.7%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	31.7%0.43%	50.0%<0.01%	58.8%0.03%		63.6%0.04%	40.7%0.06%	24.5%0.57%	25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		30.5%0.26%	40.0%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	35.2%0.47%	25.2%0.56%	33.8%0.08%
New England Patriots	53.5%5.17%	79.5%0.04%	68.4%0.38%	75.0%0.01%	73.9%0.52%	63.6%0.73%	45.6%8.20%	75.4%0.12%	86.7%0.01%	69.5%0.26%		60.1%0.82%	83.3%0.02%	52.1%6.28%	46.0%7.05%	62.6%1.04%
New York Jets	42.7%1.39%	71.4%<0.01%	68.5%0.09%	75.0%<0.01%	69.6%0.12%	49.2%0.20%	37.7%2.13%	50.0%0.02%	83.3%<0.01%	60.0%0.04%	39.9%0.82%		80.0%0.01%	45.3%1.59%	38.6%1.94%	57.1%0.28%
Oakland Raiders	18.8%0.02%		33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	18.5%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.02%	20.0%0.01%		24.0%0.03%	14.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.5%2.95%	69.8%0.11%	62.2%0.23%	66.7%<0.01%	76.7%0.48%	60.3%0.90%	44.0%10.49%	79.6%0.16%	80.0%<0.01%	64.8%0.47%	47.9%6.28%	54.7%1.59%	76.0%0.03%		43.8%7.07%	61.0%1.32%
San Diego Chargers	56.6%6.02%	83.7%0.12%	70.9%0.45%	71.4%0.01%	76.7%0.23%	65.3%1.04%	49.4%10.39%	82.6%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	74.8%0.56%	54.0%7.05%	61.4%1.94%	85.7%<0.01%	56.2%7.07%		66.9%1.39%
Tennessee Titans	38.9%1.24%	80.0%0.01%	66.4%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	61.0%0.10%	55.4%0.09%	35.0%1.08%	46.2%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.2%0.08%	37.4%1.04%	42.9%0.28%	33.3%<0.01%	39.0%1.32%	33.1%1.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		48.1%0.97%	46.0%0.37%	58.9%0.31%	40.6%1.73%	100.0%<0.01%	42.9%1.81%	42.4%3.59%	34.2%6.37%	55.7%1.16%	36.7%4.91%	64.7%0.19%	71.4%0.03%		66.7%<0.01%	59.5%0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	51.9%0.97%		56.7%0.06%	61.8%0.15%	39.0%0.74%	100.0%<0.01%	40.7%0.85%	40.9%1.72%	33.8%1.60%	58.3%0.53%	37.9%1.99%	59.0%0.18%	76.3%0.04%		100.0%<0.01%	54.5%0.02%
Carolina Panthers	54.0%0.37%	43.3%0.06%		69.0%0.06%	36.1%0.24%		38.4%0.28%	43.6%0.51%	33.7%0.49%	60.0%0.21%	39.0%0.67%	55.1%0.07%	72.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%
Chicago Bears	41.1%0.31%	38.2%0.15%	31.0%0.06%		32.2%0.30%		35.5%0.14%	31.1%0.31%	23.1%0.94%	46.2%0.21%	23.1%0.67%	58.8%0.05%	63.2%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	59.4%1.73%	61.0%0.74%	63.9%0.24%	67.8%0.30%		100.0%<0.01%	52.4%1.29%	51.2%2.70%	43.1%4.26%	65.5%0.47%	48.5%2.05%	65.2%0.31%	82.8%0.06%		85.7%0.01%	76.9%0.03%
Green Bay Packers	57.1%1.81%	59.3%0.85%	61.6%0.28%	64.5%0.14%	47.6%1.29%			50.2%1.90%	40.7%4.86%	62.7%1.02%	44.3%3.95%	63.2%0.31%	73.8%0.08%		77.8%<0.01%	73.3%0.06%
Minnesota Vikings	57.6%3.59%	59.1%1.72%	56.4%0.51%	68.9%0.31%	48.8%2.70%		49.8%1.90%		42.4%10.27%	64.4%2.06%	45.1%8.43%	65.7%0.65%	80.6%0.17%		80.6%0.03%	72.4%0.12%
New Orleans Saints	65.8%6.37%	66.2%1.60%	66.3%0.49%	76.9%0.94%	56.9%4.26%	100.0%<0.01%	59.3%4.86%	57.6%10.27%		70.7%3.32%	52.6%12.70%	73.2%1.12%	82.9%0.26%		80.0%0.01%	83.6%0.17%
New York Giants	44.3%1.16%	41.7%0.53%	40.0%0.21%	53.8%0.21%	34.5%0.47%		37.3%1.02%	35.6%2.06%	29.3%3.32%		33.7%1.29%	59.2%0.18%	86.7%0.04%		83.3%<0.01%	68.8%0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	63.3%4.91%	62.1%1.99%	61.0%0.67%	76.9%0.67%	51.5%2.05%		55.7%3.95%	54.9%8.43%	47.4%12.70%	66.3%1.29%		72.8%0.83%	80.4%0.20%		90.3%0.03%	76.5%0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	35.3%0.19%	41.0%0.18%	44.9%0.07%	41.2%0.05%	34.8%0.31%		36.8%0.31%	34.3%0.65%	26.8%1.12%	40.8%0.18%	27.2%0.83%		37.5%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	60.0%0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	28.6%0.03%	23.7%0.04%	27.3%0.01%	36.8%0.02%	17.2%0.06%		26.2%0.08%	19.4%0.17%	17.1%0.26%	13.3%0.04%	19.6%0.20%	62.5%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%		22.2%<0.01%	19.4%0.03%	20.0%0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	9.7%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	40.5%0.08%	45.5%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%	23.1%0.03%		26.7%0.06%	27.6%0.12%	16.4%0.17%	31.2%0.02%	23.5%0.08%	40.0%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	56.9%1.14%	58.4%0.49%	54.5%0.18%	66.9%0.12%	47.8%0.99%	50.2%1.05%	48.6%2.11%	45.3%3.63%	61.2%0.52%	46.5%2.74%	67.2%0.19%	81.5%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	21.4%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		33.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	29.4%0.02%	23.1%0.03%	75.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.9%0.06%	38.5%0.03%	13.3%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	36.0%0.05%	36.7%0.05%	35.2%0.11%	30.3%0.21%	42.3%0.03%	31.9%0.14%	22.2%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		16.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	46.2%0.07%	36.4%0.03%	44.4%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	22.9%0.05%	32.7%0.06%	27.9%0.11%	25.4%0.18%	50.0%0.02%	28.0%0.14%	41.7%0.01%			50.0%<0.01%
Houston Texans	52.5%0.18%	61.7%0.08%	56.2%0.02%	68.4%0.02%	42.3%0.13%	42.0%0.13%	45.0%0.30%	38.4%0.49%	57.1%0.08%	40.6%0.44%	42.9%0.01%	87.5%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	65.1%2.06%	63.0%0.96%	58.7%0.32%	67.9%0.22%	51.7%1.80%	54.3%1.98%	56.4%4.02%	49.3%7.04%	67.9%0.92%	51.0%5.05%	72.4%0.33%	81.2%0.05%	80.0%<0.01%	77.3%0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	26.7%0.01%	50.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%	14.3%0.01%	32.0%0.03%	8.3%0.04%	46.2%0.01%	27.5%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs								0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	45.6%0.07%	37.5%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	36.2%0.07%	38.5%0.07%	41.7%0.13%	27.1%0.20%	35.3%0.03%	30.0%0.18%	60.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	58.5%1.39%	57.6%0.57%	59.7%0.21%	69.0%0.16%	51.5%1.17%	53.8%1.34%	54.3%2.50%	47.2%4.24%	67.3%0.57%	50.0%3.21%	71.9%0.18%	90.3%0.03%	83.3%<0.01%	62.5%0.02%
New York Jets	57.0%0.32%	55.0%0.11%	48.6%0.04%	44.4%0.04%	45.3%0.29%	47.9%0.33%	48.7%0.55%	41.8%1.00%	59.3%0.14%	45.6%0.78%	63.6%0.06%	83.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	50.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	22.2%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.6%1.37%	56.8%0.60%	55.9%0.19%	70.4%0.16%	47.0%1.13%	47.5%1.18%	53.0%2.49%	44.6%4.28%	63.0%0.57%	45.8%3.26%	60.6%0.17%	72.4%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	90.5%0.02%
San Diego Chargers	66.3%1.74%	63.6%0.74%	62.5%0.26%	69.1%0.21%	53.3%1.42%	58.8%1.63%	57.9%3.24%	50.9%5.67%	70.4%0.77%	53.1%4.28%	71.0%0.24%	76.5%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%	76.5%0.03%
Tennessee Titans	52.4%0.22%	52.2%0.09%	43.6%0.04%	55.0%0.02%	34.7%0.20%	42.6%0.19%	44.1%0.40%	35.4%0.71%	50.0%0.12%	37.5%0.58%	48.6%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals															43.1%1.14%	78.6%0.01%	49.1%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	53.8%0.07%	47.5%0.18%	34.9%2.06%	73.3%0.01%		54.4%0.07%	41.5%1.39%	43.0%0.32%	50.0%<0.01%	43.4%1.37%	33.7%1.74%	47.6%0.22%
Atlanta Falcons															41.6%0.49%	50.0%<0.01%	61.5%0.03%		63.6%0.03%	38.3%0.08%	37.0%0.96%	50.0%0.01%		62.5%0.02%	42.4%0.57%	45.0%0.11%		43.2%0.60%	36.4%0.74%	47.8%0.09%
Carolina Panthers															45.5%0.18%	66.7%<0.01%	86.7%0.01%		55.6%<0.01%	43.8%0.02%	41.3%0.32%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	40.3%0.21%	51.4%0.04%		44.1%0.19%	37.5%0.26%	56.4%0.04%
Chicago Bears															33.1%0.12%		75.0%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.02%	32.1%0.22%	66.7%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	31.0%0.16%	55.6%0.04%		29.6%0.16%	30.9%0.21%	45.0%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys															52.2%0.99%	66.7%0.01%	64.0%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	77.1%0.05%	57.7%0.13%	48.3%1.80%	66.7%0.01%		63.8%0.07%	48.5%1.17%	54.7%0.29%	100.0%<0.01%	53.0%1.13%	46.7%1.42%	65.3%0.20%
Green Bay Packers															49.8%1.05%	66.7%<0.01%	63.3%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	67.3%0.06%	58.0%0.13%	45.7%1.98%	85.7%0.01%		61.5%0.07%	46.2%1.34%	52.1%0.33%	100.0%<0.01%	52.5%1.18%	41.2%1.63%	57.4%0.19%
Minnesota Vikings															51.4%2.11%	70.6%0.02%	64.8%0.11%		72.1%0.11%	55.0%0.30%	43.6%4.02%	68.0%0.03%		58.3%0.13%	45.7%2.50%	51.3%0.55%	77.8%<0.01%	47.0%2.49%	42.1%3.24%	55.9%0.40%
New Orleans Saints															54.7%3.63%	76.9%0.03%	69.7%0.21%	83.3%<0.01%	74.6%0.18%	61.6%0.49%	50.7%7.04%	91.7%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	72.9%0.20%	52.8%4.24%	58.2%1.00%	85.7%<0.01%	55.4%4.28%	49.1%5.67%	64.6%0.71%
New York Giants															38.8%0.52%	25.0%<0.01%	57.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	42.9%0.08%	32.1%0.92%	53.8%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	64.7%0.03%	32.7%0.57%	40.7%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	37.0%0.57%	29.6%0.77%	50.0%0.12%
Philadelphia Eagles															53.5%2.74%	62.5%0.02%	68.1%0.14%	33.3%<0.01%	72.0%0.14%	59.4%0.44%	49.0%5.05%	72.5%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	70.0%0.18%	50.0%3.21%	54.4%0.78%	100.0%<0.01%	54.2%3.26%	46.9%4.28%	62.5%0.58%
San Francisco 49ers															32.8%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%	77.8%<0.01%		58.3%0.01%	57.1%0.01%	27.6%0.33%	0.0%<0.01%		40.0%<0.01%	28.1%0.18%	36.4%0.06%		39.4%0.17%	29.0%0.24%	51.4%0.03%
Seattle Seahawks															18.5%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%			12.5%<0.01%	18.8%0.05%			0.0%<0.01%	9.7%0.03%	16.7%<0.01%		27.6%0.03%	23.5%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															50.0%<0.01%						20.0%<0.01%				16.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															33.3%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	22.7%0.04%			50.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%		9.5%0.02%	23.5%0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New Orleans Saints	100.00%	61.80%	39.06%	19.86%	Won Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	65.71%	37.50%	19.27%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	63.45%	32.31%	17.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	54.21%	22.50%	9.90%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	59.67%	24.51%	12.38%	6.49%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	54.32%	26.46%	12.60%	6.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	45.68%	19.79%	10.42%	5.54%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	52.33%	21.75%	9.60%	4.64%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	57.32%	20.02%	7.90%	3.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	40.33%	16.22%	7.17%	3.68%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Arizona Cardinals	47.67%	15.99%	5.83%	2.38%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	42.68%	10.10%	2.75%	1.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens			40.3%100.00%
Cincinnati Bengals				42.7%100.00%
New England Patriots	59.7%100.00%
New York Jets		57.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals			47.7%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys				54.3%100.00%
Green Bay Packers	52.3%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles		45.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens			40.2%40.33%
Cincinnati Bengals			23.9%25.34%			23.2%17.34%
Indianapolis Colts	59.8%40.33%	76.1%25.34%			65.0%34.34%
New England Patriots						41.1%59.67%
New York Jets			35.0%34.34%			34.9%22.98%
San Diego Chargers		76.8%17.34%		58.9%59.67%	65.1%22.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals				37.9%21.79%	29.8%25.89%
Dallas Cowboys				48.7%54.32%
Green Bay Packers				46.3%23.89%	37.6%28.43%
Minnesota Vikings	62.1%21.79%	51.3%54.32%	53.7%23.89%
New Orleans Saints	70.2%25.89%		62.4%28.43%			56.7%45.68%
Philadelphia Eagles					43.3%45.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens		61.7%1.64%			47.3%3.24%	40.8%11.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	38.3%1.64%		24.6%2.40%	26.4%2.46%		24.5%3.61%
Indianapolis Colts		75.4%2.40%		56.3%17.11%	62.0%4.78%	55.8%41.42%
New England Patriots		73.6%2.46%	43.7%17.11%		62.6%4.94%
New York Jets	52.7%3.24%		38.0%4.78%	37.4%4.94%		35.7%7.07%
San Diego Chargers	59.2%11.35%	75.5%3.61%	44.2%41.42%		64.3%7.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals		34.2%3.77%		38.8%3.95%	30.4%4.59%	43.7%3.67%
Dallas Cowboys	65.8%3.77%		58.4%5.15%		40.5%17.54%
Green Bay Packers		41.6%5.15%		47.9%5.54%	38.5%6.31%	49.9%4.75%
Minnesota Vikings	61.2%3.95%		52.1%5.54%		35.4%33.35%	47.4%11.37%
New Orleans Saints	69.6%4.59%	59.5%17.54%	61.5%6.31%	64.6%33.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	56.3%3.67%		50.1%4.75%	52.6%11.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens	62.6%0.41%	49.6%0.85%	51.5%0.67%	54.3%1.59%	49.7%2.90%	47.1%0.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.1%0.17%	37.3%0.33%	33.3%0.28%	40.0%0.59%	34.1%1.11%	31.0%0.27%
Indianapolis Colts	59.1%2.26%	51.6%4.80%	51.5%3.58%	56.0%8.28%	48.7%14.65%	47.0%3.93%
New England Patriots	59.9%0.71%	49.1%1.54%	52.5%1.22%	57.7%2.86%	50.5%4.76%	47.5%1.29%
New York Jets	53.6%0.43%	47.7%1.02%	49.0%0.72%	50.8%1.84%	46.1%3.10%	42.4%0.79%
San Diego Chargers	60.3%1.84%	52.5%4.06%	53.6%3.13%	58.3%7.34%	51.1%12.54%	48.8%3.39%
Arizona Cardinals							37.4%0.41%	50.9%0.17%	40.9%2.26%	40.1%0.71%	46.4%0.43%	39.7%1.84%
Dallas Cowboys							50.4%0.85%	62.7%0.33%	48.4%4.80%	50.9%1.54%	52.3%1.02%	47.5%4.06%
Green Bay Packers							48.5%0.67%	66.7%0.28%	48.5%3.58%	47.5%1.22%	51.0%0.72%	46.4%3.13%
Minnesota Vikings							45.7%1.59%	60.0%0.59%	44.0%8.28%	42.3%2.86%	49.2%1.84%	41.7%7.34%
New Orleans Saints							50.3%2.90%	65.9%1.11%	51.3%14.65%	49.5%4.76%	53.9%3.10%	48.9%12.54%
Philadelphia Eagles							52.9%0.75%	69.0%0.27%	53.0%3.93%	52.5%1.29%	57.6%0.79%	51.2%3.39%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New Orleans Saints 19.86% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

41.89%

Win Prob

56.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.18%

Win Prob

64.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.83%

Win Prob

51.30%

Indianapolis Colts 19.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

36.70%

Win Prob

59.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

61.59%

Win Prob

55.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.02%

Win Prob

48.70%

San Diego Chargers 17.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

55.42%

Win Prob

58.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

56.73%

Win Prob

44.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.12%

Win Prob

51.11%

Minnesota Vikings 9.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

51.40%

Win Prob

51.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

52.44%

Win Prob

35.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

36.80%

Win Prob

44.00%

New England Patriots 6.49% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

60.40%

Win Prob

43.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.05%

Win Prob

50.52%

Dallas Cowboys 6.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.32%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

56.43%

Win Prob

40.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.47%

Win Prob

48.43%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.68%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

57.34%

Win Prob

52.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.62%

Win Prob

53.00%

Green Bay Packers 4.64% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

50.87%

Win Prob

46.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

27.64%

Win Prob

47.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

37.38%

Win Prob

48.48%

New York Jets 3.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.32%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

59.99%

Win Prob

34.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.02%

Win Prob

35.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.91%

Win Prob

46.09%

Baltimore Ravens 3.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

64.59%

Win Prob

40.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

39.20%

Win Prob

49.72%

Arizona Cardinals 2.38% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.67%

Win Prob

37.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

27.50%

Win Prob

43.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

38.85%

Win Prob

40.93%

Cincinnati Bengals 1.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.68%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

60.07%

Win Prob

23.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

32.11%

Win Prob

24.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.95%

Win Prob

34.08%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2009-09-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1543.04	1456.33	68.25%	31.54%	-15.88	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-17	1527.16	1439.29	55.72%	44.05%	+19.19	1-1
2009-09-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1546.35	1588.42	50.61%	49.15%	-26.99	1-2
2009-10-11	Houston Texans	W 28-21	1519.36	1483.13	61.66%	38.12%	+11.74	2-2
2009-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-3	1531.10	1459.82	53.35%	46.42%	+26.47	3-2
2009-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1557.57	1616.09	35.14%	64.64%	+19.89	4-2
2009-11-01	Carolina Panthers	L 21-34	1577.46	1469.32	70.85%	28.95%	-29.71	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-21	1547.75	1504.02	49.39%	50.38%	+26.22	5-3
2009-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-20	1573.97	1429.85	74.93%	24.89%	+9.61	6-3
2009-11-22	@ St. Louis Rams	W 21-13	1583.58	1274.67	81.75%	18.10%	+5.95	7-3
2009-11-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1589.53	1539.02	50.36%	49.40%	-10.15	7-4
2009-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1579.38	1640.68	47.85%	51.92%	+21.78	8-4
2009-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-24	1601.16	1448.33	64.64%	35.15%	-29.11	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1572.05	1251.23	82.75%	17.11%	+5.26	9-5
2009-12-27	St. Louis Rams	W 31-10	1577.31	1234.89	90.33%	9.58%	+5.11	10-5
2010-01-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1582.42	1577.31	57.35%	42.42%	-34.02	10-6
2009-09-13	Miami Dolphins	W 19-7	1534.82	1515.55	59.33%	40.45%	+16.31	1-0
2009-09-20	Carolina Panthers	W 28-20	1551.13	1500.40	63.61%	36.17%	+11.91	2-0
2009-09-27	@ New England Patriots	L 10-26	1563.04	1575.08	41.45%	58.32%	-19.30	2-1
2009-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 45-10	1543.74	1497.50	49.75%	50.02%	+34.43	3-1
2009-10-18	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1578.17	1538.51	62.12%	37.65%	+11.60	4-1
2009-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-37	1589.77	1540.69	50.16%	49.61%	-23.35	4-2
2009-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-35	1566.42	1655.17	31.29%	68.50%	-10.30	4-3
2009-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-17	1556.12	1426.79	73.30%	26.51%	+11.54	5-3
2009-11-15	@ Carolina Panthers	L 19-28	1567.66	1490.72	54.16%	45.61%	-18.90	5-4
2009-11-22	@ New York Giants	L 31-34	1548.76	1567.24	40.55%	59.22%	-8.18	5-5
2009-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1540.58	1383.91	76.26%	23.56%	+4.75	6-5
2009-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1545.33	1622.95	45.51%	54.25%	-27.52	6-6
2009-12-13	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1517.81	1714.84	29.59%	70.21%	-5.97	6-7
2009-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 10-7	1511.84	1540.82	39.11%	60.67%	+12.22	7-7
2009-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 31-3	1524.06	1414.21	71.06%	28.75%	+17.71	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1541.77	1397.51	63.50%	36.28%	+13.36	9-7
2009-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-24	1626.26	1365.14	85.41%	14.47%	+6.30	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-26	1632.56	1577.23	51.06%	48.71%	+12.68	2-0
2009-09-27	Cleveland Browns	W 34-3	1645.24	1375.58	86.01%	13.87%	+8.98	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 21-27	1654.22	1594.38	51.71%	48.06%	-14.74	3-1
2009-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1639.48	1460.66	78.49%	21.35%	-15.80	3-2
2009-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 31-33	1623.68	1597.81	46.82%	52.94%	-7.71	3-3
2009-11-01	Denver Broncos	W 30-7	1615.97	1541.19	66.74%	33.04%	+18.45	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1634.42	1491.19	63.37%	36.41%	-23.31	4-4
2009-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-0	1611.11	1328.23	79.42%	20.42%	+9.51	5-4
2009-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 15-17	1620.62	1671.97	49.28%	50.48%	-8.11	5-5
2009-11-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1612.51	1642.35	52.37%	47.39%	+9.55	6-5
2009-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1622.06	1530.43	56.25%	43.52%	-23.59	6-6
2009-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 48-3	1598.47	1258.82	90.19%	9.72%	+7.58	7-6
2009-12-20	Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1606.05	1438.45	77.38%	22.45%	+12.81	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1618.86	1594.55	46.60%	53.17%	-9.40	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-13	1609.46	1322.96	79.76%	20.09%	+6.61	9-7
2009-09-14	@ New England Patriots	L 24-25	1444.89	1589.01	24.88%	74.93%	-2.90	0-1
2009-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-20	1441.99	1463.02	53.64%	46.13%	+19.36	1-1
2009-09-27	New Orleans Saints	L 7-27	1461.35	1578.39	39.97%	59.81%	-20.81	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-38	1440.54	1476.57	38.15%	61.63%	-23.50	1-3
2009-10-11	Cleveland Browns	L 3-6	1417.04	1357.64	64.75%	35.03%	-13.04	1-4
2009-10-18	@ New York Jets	W 16-13	1404.00	1517.07	28.37%	71.44%	+14.39	2-4
2009-10-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-9	1418.39	1495.16	32.79%	67.00%	+25.84	3-4
2009-11-01	Houston Texans	L 10-31	1444.23	1501.36	48.45%	51.32%	-25.84	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-41	1418.39	1510.14	30.92%	68.87%	-17.64	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-18	1400.75	1438.01	37.98%	61.80%	-7.65	3-7
2009-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 31-14	1393.10	1524.19	38.05%	61.73%	+29.60	4-7
2009-12-03	New York Jets	L 13-19	1422.70	1508.58	44.34%	55.43%	-12.64	4-8
2009-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1410.06	1324.57	55.38%	44.39%	+12.66	5-8
2009-12-20	New England Patriots	L 10-17	1422.72	1636.65	27.61%	72.20%	-8.51	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-31	1414.21	1524.06	28.75%	71.06%	-17.71	5-10
2010-01-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-7	1396.50	1678.89	20.47%	79.37%	+14.76	6-10
2009-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-38	1526.65	1624.65	42.62%	57.15%	-26.25	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-28	1500.40	1551.13	36.17%	63.61%	-11.91	0-2
2009-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1488.49	1532.01	37.13%	62.64%	-16.18	0-3
2009-10-11	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1472.31	1472.09	56.66%	43.11%	+8.69	1-3
2009-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-21	1481.00	1406.66	53.79%	45.98%	+14.16	2-3
2009-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 9-20	1495.16	1418.39	67.00%	32.79%	-25.84	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-21	1469.32	1577.46	28.95%	70.85%	+29.71	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1499.03	1665.47	22.56%	77.26%	-8.31	3-5
2009-11-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-19	1490.72	1567.66	45.61%	54.16%	+18.90	4-5
2009-11-19	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1509.62	1506.63	57.05%	42.72%	-17.56	4-6
2009-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 6-17	1492.06	1491.92	43.16%	56.61%	-16.66	4-7
2009-12-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-6	1475.40	1379.16	69.42%	30.37%	+11.18	5-7
2009-12-13	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1486.58	1627.35	25.25%	74.57%	-9.29	5-8
2009-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1477.29	1635.43	34.45%	65.33%	+33.12	6-8
2009-12-27	@ New York Giants	W 41-9	1510.41	1574.50	34.42%	65.37%	+43.01	7-8
2010-01-03	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1553.42	1679.25	38.76%	61.01%	+8.53	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-21	1513.73	1492.67	46.14%	53.63%	-13.15	0-1
2009-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1500.58	1651.21	35.44%	64.35%	+12.96	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-19	1513.54	1445.90	52.83%	46.94%	+13.38	2-1
2009-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 48-24	1526.92	1337.17	79.53%	20.31%	+11.59	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1538.51	1578.17	37.65%	62.12%	-11.60	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-45	1526.91	1454.34	53.53%	46.23%	-36.85	3-3
2009-11-01	Cleveland Browns	W 30-6	1490.06	1342.20	75.33%	24.49%	+13.96	4-3
2009-11-08	Arizona Cardinals	L 21-41	1504.02	1547.75	50.38%	49.39%	-26.22	4-4
2009-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-10	1477.80	1435.26	49.22%	50.55%	-11.45	4-5
2009-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1466.35	1610.32	36.32%	63.47%	-8.46	4-6
2009-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-36	1457.89	1627.47	22.25%	77.58%	-13.21	4-7
2009-12-06	St. Louis Rams	W 17-9	1444.68	1255.14	79.51%	20.33%	+6.70	5-7
2009-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-21	1451.38	1554.03	41.97%	57.80%	-12.93	5-8
2009-12-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-31	1438.45	1606.05	22.45%	77.38%	-12.80	5-9
2009-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 36-30	1425.65	1602.31	32.09%	67.70%	+19.29	6-9
2010-01-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-23	1444.94	1238.38	71.34%	28.46%	+12.40	7-9
2009-09-13	Denver Broncos	L 7-12	1431.20	1428.33	57.03%	42.74%	-14.84	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-24	1416.36	1505.82	31.20%	68.59%	+21.11	1-1
2009-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1437.47	1638.24	29.15%	70.65%	+14.23	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1451.70	1366.60	55.32%	44.45%	+8.96	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-14	1460.66	1639.48	21.35%	78.49%	+15.80	4-1
2009-10-18	Houston Texans	L 17-28	1476.46	1471.39	57.34%	42.43%	-22.12	4-2
2009-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 45-10	1454.34	1526.91	46.23%	53.53%	+36.85	5-2
2009-11-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-7	1491.19	1634.42	36.41%	63.37%	+23.31	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 18-12	1514.50	1680.97	22.56%	77.27%	+22.00	7-2
2009-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1536.50	1334.03	70.86%	28.95%	-14.27	7-3
2009-11-29	Cleveland Browns	W 16-7	1522.23	1312.92	81.30%	18.55%	+6.48	8-3
2009-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1528.71	1264.05	85.66%	14.22%	+5.23	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1533.94	1618.90	31.76%	68.03%	-16.54	9-4
2009-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1517.40	1638.70	27.42%	72.39%	-5.53	9-5
2009-12-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1511.87	1295.11	81.94%	17.91%	+5.52	10-5
2010-01-03	@ New York Jets	L 0-37	1517.39	1562.98	36.86%	62.92%	-26.11	10-6
2009-09-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-34	1411.71	1541.61	38.21%	61.57%	-16.64	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-27	1395.07	1443.17	36.52%	63.26%	-19.49	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-34	1375.58	1645.24	13.87%	86.01%	-8.98	0-3
2009-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1366.60	1451.70	44.45%	55.32%	-8.96	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 6-3	1357.64	1417.04	35.03%	64.75%	+13.04	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1370.68	1643.37	13.66%	86.22%	-5.73	1-5
2009-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1364.95	1504.31	36.93%	62.85%	-22.75	1-6
2009-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-30	1342.20	1490.06	24.49%	75.33%	-13.97	1-7
2009-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-16	1328.23	1611.11	20.42%	79.42%	-9.50	1-8
2009-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 37-38	1318.73	1271.78	49.85%	49.91%	-5.81	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-16	1312.92	1522.23	18.55%	81.30%	-6.47	1-10
2009-12-06	San Diego Chargers	L 23-30	1306.45	1623.69	17.40%	82.46%	-5.36	1-11
2009-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-6	1301.09	1615.18	17.66%	82.19%	+25.28	2-11
2009-12-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-34	1326.37	1311.91	45.19%	54.57%	+16.80	3-11
2009-12-27	Oakland Raiders	W 23-9	1343.17	1341.66	56.84%	42.93%	+18.70	4-11
2010-01-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1361.87	1411.81	49.48%	50.28%	+14.33	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-21	1518.29	1484.77	47.92%	51.84%	+21.75	1-0
2009-09-20	New York Giants	L 31-33	1540.04	1594.80	48.79%	50.98%	-8.03	1-1
2009-09-28	Carolina Panthers	W 21-7	1532.01	1488.49	62.64%	37.13%	+16.18	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1548.19	1489.32	51.57%	48.20%	-15.88	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-20	1532.31	1333.51	70.42%	29.38%	+8.38	3-2
2009-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-21	1540.69	1589.77	49.61%	50.16%	+23.35	4-2
2009-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-17	1564.04	1433.35	73.46%	26.36%	+14.06	5-2
2009-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-16	1578.10	1642.36	34.40%	65.39%	+15.21	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1593.31	1485.40	58.54%	41.23%	-21.53	6-3
2009-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 7-6	1571.78	1435.81	74.04%	25.77%	+3.00	7-3
2009-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1574.78	1348.30	82.75%	17.11%	+8.21	8-3
2009-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 24-31	1582.99	1544.26	48.67%	51.10%	-14.99	8-4
2009-12-13	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1568.00	1629.04	47.89%	51.88%	-9.65	8-5
2009-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1558.35	1720.80	22.97%	76.86%	+23.64	9-5
2009-12-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-0	1581.99	1420.94	65.71%	34.08%	+16.36	10-5
2010-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1598.35	1677.21	45.34%	54.43%	+31.03	11-5
2009-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 12-7	1428.33	1431.20	42.74%	57.03%	+14.84	1-0
2009-09-20	Cleveland Browns	W 27-6	1443.17	1395.07	63.26%	36.52%	+19.48	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-3	1462.65	1425.01	48.51%	51.25%	+26.67	3-0
2009-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1489.32	1548.19	48.20%	51.57%	+15.88	4-0
2009-10-11	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1505.20	1609.12	41.79%	57.98%	+11.68	5-0
2009-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-23	1516.88	1563.18	36.76%	63.02%	+24.31	6-0
2009-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-30	1541.19	1615.97	33.04%	66.74%	-18.45	6-1
2009-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1522.74	1662.77	36.84%	62.94%	-18.20	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1504.54	1415.24	55.92%	43.85%	-20.57	6-3
2009-11-22	San Diego Chargers	L 3-32	1483.97	1588.26	41.74%	58.03%	-26.17	6-4
2009-11-26	New York Giants	W 26-6	1457.80	1575.42	39.89%	59.88%	+31.16	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-13	1488.96	1348.40	63.01%	36.77%	+23.83	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-28	1512.79	1700.20	20.53%	79.31%	-8.27	8-5
2009-12-20	Oakland Raiders	L 19-20	1504.52	1332.61	77.81%	22.02%	-9.05	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-30	1495.47	1672.88	21.48%	78.35%	-4.33	8-7
2010-01-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-44	1491.14	1289.60	80.61%	19.24%	-41.91	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-45	1341.76	1525.60	20.87%	78.97%	-10.30	0-1
2009-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-27	1331.46	1558.25	26.16%	73.66%	-11.40	0-2
2009-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 19-14	1320.06	1481.62	34.01%	65.78%	+17.11	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-48	1337.17	1526.92	20.31%	79.53%	-11.58	1-3
2009-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-28	1325.59	1637.49	17.84%	82.01%	-5.88	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-26	1319.71	1491.21	22.06%	77.77%	-13.09	1-5
2009-11-01	St. Louis Rams	L 10-17	1306.62	1258.27	63.29%	36.49%	-19.48	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-32	1287.14	1419.29	26.19%	73.62%	-10.56	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1276.58	1610.94	9.99%	89.91%	-4.80	1-8
2009-11-22	Cleveland Browns	W 38-37	1271.78	1318.73	49.91%	49.85%	+5.81	2-8
2009-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 12-34	1277.59	1516.90	24.79%	75.03%	-13.54	2-9
2009-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-23	1264.05	1528.71	14.22%	85.66%	-5.23	2-10
2009-12-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-48	1258.82	1598.47	9.72%	90.19%	-7.59	2-11
2009-12-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-31	1251.23	1572.05	17.11%	82.75%	-5.26	2-12
2009-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1245.97	1468.47	17.43%	82.42%	-7.59	2-13
2010-01-03	Chicago Bears	L 23-37	1238.38	1444.94	28.46%	71.34%	-12.40	2-14
2009-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 21-15	1492.67	1513.73	53.63%	46.14%	+13.15	1-0
2009-09-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-31	1505.82	1416.36	68.59%	31.20%	-21.11	1-1
2009-09-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 36-17	1484.71	1314.14	66.93%	32.86%	+16.68	2-1
2009-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-30	1501.39	1576.18	33.04%	66.75%	-10.18	2-2
2009-10-18	Detroit Lions	W 26-0	1491.21	1319.71	77.77%	22.06%	+13.10	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-3	1504.31	1364.95	62.85%	36.93%	+22.75	4-2
2009-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-38	1527.06	1591.85	47.35%	52.42%	-19.09	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-38	1507.97	1379.73	61.34%	38.43%	-22.57	4-4
2009-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-7	1485.40	1593.31	41.23%	58.54%	+21.54	5-4
2009-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-24	1506.94	1446.71	64.86%	34.92%	+9.96	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-12	1516.90	1277.59	75.03%	24.79%	+13.53	7-4
2009-12-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-14	1530.43	1622.06	43.52%	56.25%	+23.60	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1554.03	1451.38	57.80%	41.97%	+12.93	9-4
2009-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 36-37	1566.96	1589.90	39.94%	59.84%	-4.65	9-5
2009-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 48-10	1562.31	1378.99	78.92%	20.92%	+15.00	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 33-7	1577.31	1582.42	42.42%	57.35%	+34.02	11-5
2009-09-13	New York Jets	L 7-24	1497.77	1483.26	58.66%	41.11%	-28.14	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-31	1469.63	1588.13	27.74%	72.07%	+14.51	1-1
2009-09-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1484.14	1420.10	65.36%	34.42%	-20.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Oakland Raiders	W 29-6	1464.03	1398.34	65.58%	34.21%	+19.10	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-28	1483.13	1519.36	38.12%	61.66%	-11.74	2-3
2009-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1471.39	1476.46	42.43%	57.34%	+22.13	3-3
2009-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1493.52	1463.07	60.87%	38.91%	+7.84	4-3
2009-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-10	1501.36	1444.23	51.32%	48.45%	+25.84	5-3
2009-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1527.20	1662.04	25.90%	73.92%	-5.22	5-4
2009-11-23	Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1521.98	1527.78	55.81%	43.96%	-11.25	5-5
2009-11-29	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-35	1510.73	1680.08	33.01%	66.78%	-10.87	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 18-23	1499.86	1424.36	53.95%	45.81%	-14.04	5-7
2009-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1485.82	1431.81	64.04%	35.74%	+21.62	6-7
2009-12-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 16-13	1507.44	1239.29	78.00%	21.83%	+4.41	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-20	1511.85	1505.28	44.07%	55.70%	+17.14	8-7
2010-01-03	New England Patriots	W 34-27	1528.99	1655.88	38.62%	61.16%	+18.82	9-7
2009-09-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-12	1573.50	1443.64	73.36%	26.45%	+4.36	1-0
2009-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-23	1577.86	1499.24	54.40%	45.37%	+10.56	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-10	1588.42	1546.35	49.15%	50.61%	+26.99	3-0
2009-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-17	1615.41	1432.52	78.88%	20.96%	+10.06	4-0
2009-10-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-9	1625.47	1527.14	57.19%	42.58%	+23.25	5-0
2009-10-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 42-6	1648.72	1267.13	87.18%	12.70%	+8.86	6-0
2009-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 18-14	1657.58	1455.22	80.68%	19.16%	+4.46	7-0
2009-11-08	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1662.04	1527.20	73.92%	25.90%	+5.23	8-0
2009-11-15	New England Patriots	W 35-34	1667.27	1647.56	59.39%	40.38%	+4.70	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-15	1671.97	1620.62	50.48%	49.28%	+8.11	10-0
2009-11-29	@ Houston Texans	W 35-27	1680.08	1510.73	66.78%	33.01%	+10.87	11-0
2009-12-06	Tennessee Titans	W 27-17	1690.95	1549.18	74.68%	25.14%	+9.25	12-0
2009-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 28-16	1700.20	1512.79	79.31%	20.53%	+8.28	13-0
2009-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-31	1708.48	1427.33	79.25%	20.58%	+4.79	14-0
2009-12-27	New York Jets	L 15-29	1713.27	1528.60	79.05%	20.79%	-34.38	14-1
2010-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1678.89	1396.50	79.37%	20.47%	-14.76	14-2
2009-09-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 12-14	1443.64	1573.50	26.45%	73.36%	-4.35	0-1
2009-09-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-31	1439.29	1527.16	44.05%	55.72%	-19.19	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Houston Texans	W 31-24	1420.10	1484.14	34.42%	65.36%	+20.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Tennessee Titans	W 37-17	1440.21	1558.33	39.82%	59.95%	+31.19	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-41	1471.40	1422.46	50.14%	49.63%	-37.36	2-3
2009-10-18	St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1434.04	1271.77	76.84%	22.99%	+4.64	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-30	1438.68	1476.44	37.91%	61.87%	-18.20	3-4
2009-11-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1420.48	1330.10	68.70%	31.09%	+6.27	4-4
2009-11-15	@ New York Jets	W 24-22	1426.75	1515.41	31.30%	68.49%	+11.26	5-4
2009-11-22	Buffalo Bills	W 18-15	1438.01	1400.75	61.80%	37.98%	+7.66	6-4
2009-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1445.67	1436.75	44.40%	55.36%	-21.31	6-5
2009-12-06	Houston Texans	W 23-18	1424.36	1499.86	45.81%	53.95%	+14.04	7-5
2009-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1438.40	1501.90	47.53%	52.23%	-11.07	7-6
2009-12-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-35	1427.33	1708.48	20.58%	79.25%	-4.79	7-7
2009-12-27	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1422.54	1645.15	17.42%	82.43%	-10.73	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-23	1411.81	1361.87	50.28%	49.48%	-14.33	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-38	1365.14	1626.26	14.47%	85.41%	-6.30	0-1
2009-09-20	Oakland Raiders	L 10-13	1358.84	1415.22	48.56%	51.21%	-9.79	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1349.05	1608.41	14.59%	85.28%	-7.59	0-3
2009-10-04	New York Giants	L 16-27	1341.46	1622.40	20.60%	79.23%	-7.95	0-4
2009-10-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-26	1333.51	1532.31	29.38%	70.42%	-8.38	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-6	1325.13	1463.39	25.52%	74.30%	+24.43	1-5
2009-10-25	San Diego Chargers	L 7-37	1349.56	1538.87	30.53%	69.27%	-19.46	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1330.10	1420.48	31.09%	68.70%	-6.27	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1323.83	1351.26	39.32%	60.45%	+17.22	2-7
2009-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1341.05	1658.96	17.34%	82.51%	+16.62	3-7
2009-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-43	1357.67	1614.43	14.78%	85.09%	-9.27	3-8
2009-12-06	Denver Broncos	L 13-44	1348.40	1488.96	36.77%	63.01%	-23.83	3-9
2009-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 10-16	1324.57	1410.06	44.39%	55.38%	-12.66	3-10
2009-12-20	Cleveland Browns	L 34-41	1311.91	1326.37	54.57%	45.19%	-16.80	3-11
2009-12-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1295.11	1511.87	17.91%	81.94%	-5.51	3-12
2010-01-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 44-24	1289.60	1491.14	19.24%	80.61%	+41.90	4-12
2009-09-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-19	1515.55	1534.82	40.45%	59.33%	-16.31	0-1
2009-09-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-27	1499.24	1577.86	45.37%	54.40%	-10.56	0-2
2009-09-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1488.68	1564.55	32.91%	66.88%	-12.11	0-3
2009-10-04	Buffalo Bills	W 38-10	1476.57	1440.54	61.63%	38.15%	+23.50	1-3
2009-10-12	New York Jets	W 31-27	1500.07	1528.04	52.64%	47.12%	+10.97	2-3
2009-10-25	New Orleans Saints	L 34-46	1511.04	1639.69	38.38%	61.40%	-15.48	2-4
2009-11-01	@ New York Jets	W 30-25	1495.56	1531.44	38.17%	61.61%	+16.02	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New England Patriots	L 17-27	1511.58	1637.67	26.87%	72.94%	-9.89	3-5
2009-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-23	1501.69	1402.29	69.81%	29.99%	+4.94	4-5
2009-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-17	1506.63	1509.62	42.72%	57.05%	+17.56	5-5
2009-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-31	1524.19	1393.10	61.73%	38.05%	-29.61	5-6
2009-12-06	New England Patriots	W 22-21	1494.58	1634.68	36.83%	62.95%	+7.32	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-10	1501.90	1438.40	52.23%	47.53%	+11.07	7-6
2009-12-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1512.97	1549.07	38.14%	61.64%	-7.69	7-7
2009-12-27	Houston Texans	L 20-27	1505.28	1511.85	55.70%	44.07%	-17.15	7-8
2010-01-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1488.13	1603.94	40.14%	59.63%	-11.44	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-20	1541.61	1411.71	61.57%	38.21%	+16.64	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1558.25	1331.46	73.66%	26.16%	+11.39	2-0
2009-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1569.64	1489.79	67.39%	32.40%	+6.54	3-0
2009-10-05	Green Bay Packers	W 30-23	1576.18	1501.39	66.75%	33.04%	+10.18	4-0
2009-10-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 38-10	1586.36	1283.22	81.25%	18.60%	+11.45	5-0
2009-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-31	1597.81	1623.68	52.94%	46.82%	+7.71	6-0
2009-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1605.52	1649.10	37.13%	62.65%	-13.67	6-1
2009-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-26	1591.85	1527.06	52.42%	47.35%	+19.09	7-1
2009-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1610.94	1276.58	89.91%	9.99%	+4.79	8-1
2009-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-9	1615.73	1420.25	80.06%	19.78%	+11.74	9-1
2009-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 36-10	1627.47	1457.89	77.58%	22.25%	+13.21	10-1
2009-12-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-30	1640.68	1579.38	51.92%	47.85%	-21.78	10-2
2009-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-10	1618.90	1533.94	68.03%	31.76%	+16.53	11-2
2009-12-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-26	1635.43	1477.29	65.33%	34.45%	-33.12	11-3
2009-12-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 30-36	1602.31	1425.65	67.70%	32.09%	-19.28	11-4
2010-01-03	New York Giants	W 44-7	1583.03	1531.49	63.72%	36.07%	+25.54	12-4
2009-09-14	Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1589.01	1444.89	74.93%	24.88%	+2.90	1-0
2009-09-20	@ New York Jets	L 9-16	1591.91	1511.40	54.67%	45.10%	-16.83	1-1
2009-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-10	1575.08	1563.04	58.32%	41.45%	+19.30	2-1
2009-10-04	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-21	1594.38	1654.22	48.06%	51.71%	+14.74	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1609.12	1505.20	57.98%	41.79%	-11.68	3-2
2009-10-18	Tennessee Titans	W 59-0	1597.44	1503.90	69.09%	30.70%	+27.46	4-2
2009-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1624.90	1392.50	79.10%	20.73%	+12.77	5-2
2009-11-08	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1637.67	1511.58	72.94%	26.87%	+9.89	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 34-35	1647.56	1667.27	40.38%	59.39%	-4.70	6-3
2009-11-22	New York Jets	W 31-14	1642.86	1504.15	74.34%	25.47%	+12.23	7-3
2009-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-38	1655.09	1690.29	38.26%	61.52%	-20.41	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-22	1634.68	1494.58	62.95%	36.83%	-7.33	7-5
2009-12-13	Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1627.35	1486.58	74.57%	25.25%	+9.30	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1636.65	1422.72	72.20%	27.61%	+8.50	9-5
2009-12-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-7	1645.15	1422.54	82.43%	17.42%	+10.73	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Houston Texans	L 27-34	1655.88	1528.99	61.16%	38.62%	-18.82	10-6
2009-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 45-27	1525.60	1341.76	78.97%	20.87%	+10.30	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 48-22	1535.90	1650.90	28.14%	71.66%	+42.49	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1578.39	1461.35	59.81%	39.97%	+20.81	3-0
2009-10-04	New York Jets	W 24-10	1599.20	1543.51	64.27%	35.52%	+15.48	4-0
2009-10-18	New York Giants	W 48-27	1614.68	1641.11	52.86%	46.90%	+25.01	5-0
2009-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 46-34	1639.69	1511.04	61.40%	38.38%	+15.48	6-0
2009-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-27	1655.17	1566.42	68.50%	31.29%	+10.30	7-0
2009-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 30-20	1665.47	1499.03	77.26%	22.56%	+8.31	8-0
2009-11-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-23	1673.78	1277.74	88.08%	11.81%	+3.07	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1676.85	1397.36	79.10%	20.74%	+13.44	10-0
2009-11-30	New England Patriots	W 38-17	1690.29	1655.09	61.52%	38.26%	+20.41	11-0
2009-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1710.70	1428.65	79.34%	20.50%	+4.14	12-0
2009-12-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1714.84	1517.81	70.21%	29.59%	+5.96	13-0
2009-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1720.80	1558.35	76.86%	22.97%	-23.64	13-1
2009-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1697.16	1379.59	89.00%	10.89%	-17.91	13-2
2010-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-23	1679.25	1553.42	61.01%	38.76%	-8.53	13-3
2009-09-13	Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1586.26	1486.33	69.87%	29.93%	+8.54	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-31	1594.80	1540.04	50.98%	48.79%	+8.03	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-0	1602.83	1443.66	65.47%	34.32%	+19.57	3-0
2009-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-16	1622.40	1341.46	79.23%	20.60%	+7.96	4-0
2009-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 44-7	1630.36	1379.23	84.68%	15.19%	+10.75	5-0
2009-10-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-48	1641.11	1614.68	46.90%	52.86%	-25.02	5-1
2009-10-25	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-24	1616.09	1557.57	64.64%	35.14%	-19.89	5-2
2009-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-40	1596.20	1620.14	39.80%	59.97%	-22.22	5-3
2009-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-21	1573.98	1564.70	57.93%	41.84%	-6.74	5-4
2009-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-31	1567.24	1548.76	59.22%	40.55%	+8.18	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-26	1575.42	1457.80	59.88%	39.89%	-31.16	6-5
2009-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1544.26	1582.99	51.10%	48.67%	+14.99	7-5
2009-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 38-45	1559.25	1650.47	43.58%	56.19%	-13.42	7-6
2009-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-12	1545.83	1449.61	56.89%	42.87%	+28.67	8-6
2009-12-27	Carolina Panthers	L 9-41	1574.50	1510.41	65.37%	34.42%	-43.01	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-44	1531.49	1583.03	36.07%	63.72%	-25.54	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Houston Texans	W 24-7	1483.26	1497.77	41.11%	58.66%	+28.14	1-0
2009-09-20	New England Patriots	W 16-9	1511.40	1591.91	45.10%	54.67%	+16.83	2-0
2009-09-27	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1528.23	1573.61	50.14%	49.63%	+15.28	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1543.51	1599.20	35.52%	64.27%	-15.47	3-1
2009-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1528.04	1500.07	47.12%	52.64%	-10.97	3-2
2009-10-18	Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1517.07	1404.00	71.44%	28.37%	-14.39	3-3
2009-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-0	1502.68	1386.37	59.70%	40.07%	+28.76	4-3
2009-11-01	Miami Dolphins	L 25-30	1531.44	1495.56	61.61%	38.17%	-16.03	4-4
2009-11-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-24	1515.41	1426.75	68.49%	31.30%	-11.26	4-5
2009-11-22	@ New England Patriots	L 14-31	1504.15	1642.86	25.47%	74.34%	-12.23	4-6
2009-11-29	Carolina Panthers	W 17-6	1491.92	1492.06	56.61%	43.16%	+16.66	5-6
2009-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-13	1508.58	1422.70	55.43%	44.34%	+12.64	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-3	1521.22	1367.98	64.69%	35.09%	+19.60	7-6
2009-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-10	1540.82	1511.84	60.67%	39.11%	-12.22	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-15	1528.60	1713.27	20.79%	79.05%	+34.38	8-7
2010-01-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-0	1562.98	1517.39	62.92%	36.86%	+26.10	9-7
2009-09-14	San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1423.64	1568.81	36.16%	63.62%	-8.42	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1415.22	1358.84	51.21%	48.56%	+9.79	1-1
2009-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 3-23	1425.01	1462.65	51.25%	48.51%	-26.67	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Houston Texans	L 6-29	1398.34	1464.03	34.21%	65.58%	-19.11	1-3
2009-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-44	1379.23	1630.36	15.19%	84.68%	-10.75	1-4
2009-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1368.48	1625.85	22.91%	76.92%	+17.89	2-4
2009-10-25	New York Jets	L 0-38	1386.37	1502.68	40.07%	59.70%	-28.76	2-5
2009-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-24	1357.61	1558.34	19.31%	80.54%	-6.35	2-6
2009-11-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-16	1351.26	1323.83	60.45%	39.32%	-17.23	2-7
2009-11-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1334.03	1536.50	28.95%	70.86%	+14.27	3-7
2009-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1348.30	1574.78	17.11%	82.75%	-8.21	3-8
2009-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1340.09	1632.79	12.36%	87.53%	+17.62	4-8
2009-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 13-34	1357.71	1424.51	47.06%	52.71%	-25.10	4-9
2009-12-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-19	1332.61	1504.52	22.02%	77.81%	+9.05	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 9-23	1341.66	1343.17	42.93%	56.84%	-18.70	5-10
2010-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-21	1322.96	1609.46	20.09%	79.76%	-6.61	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 38-10	1624.65	1526.65	57.15%	42.62%	+26.25	1-0
2009-09-20	New Orleans Saints	L 22-48	1650.90	1535.90	71.66%	28.14%	-42.49	1-1
2009-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-14	1608.41	1349.05	85.28%	14.59%	+7.59	2-1
2009-10-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1616.00	1416.51	80.42%	19.42%	+9.85	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-13	1625.85	1368.48	76.92%	22.91%	-17.88	3-2
2009-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1607.97	1438.96	66.73%	33.06%	+12.17	4-2
2009-11-01	New York Giants	W 40-17	1620.14	1596.20	59.97%	39.80%	+22.22	5-2
2009-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-20	1642.36	1578.10	65.39%	34.40%	-15.21	5-3
2009-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-31	1627.15	1571.44	51.11%	48.65%	-16.83	5-4
2009-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1610.32	1466.35	63.47%	36.32%	+8.46	6-4
2009-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1618.78	1432.81	79.17%	20.67%	+4.17	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-7	1622.95	1545.33	54.25%	45.51%	+27.52	8-4
2009-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 45-38	1650.47	1559.25	56.19%	43.58%	+13.42	9-4
2009-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1663.89	1477.45	79.22%	20.62%	+8.99	10-4
2009-12-27	Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1672.88	1495.47	78.35%	21.48%	+4.33	11-4
2010-01-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-24	1677.21	1598.35	54.43%	45.34%	-31.03	11-5
2009-09-10	Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1643.85	1595.49	63.29%	36.49%	+7.36	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1651.21	1500.58	64.35%	35.44%	-12.97	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1638.24	1437.47	70.65%	29.15%	-14.23	1-2
2009-10-04	San Diego Chargers	W 38-28	1624.01	1576.67	63.16%	36.62%	+13.48	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-20	1637.49	1325.59	82.01%	17.84%	+5.88	3-2
2009-10-18	Cleveland Browns	W 27-14	1643.37	1370.68	86.22%	13.66%	+5.73	4-2
2009-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1649.10	1605.52	62.65%	37.13%	+13.67	5-2
2009-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1662.77	1522.74	62.94%	36.84%	+18.20	6-2
2009-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-18	1680.97	1514.50	77.27%	22.56%	-22.01	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1658.96	1341.05	82.51%	17.34%	-16.61	6-4
2009-11-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1642.35	1612.51	47.39%	52.37%	-9.56	6-5
2009-12-06	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1632.79	1340.09	87.53%	12.36%	-17.61	6-6
2009-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-13	1615.18	1301.09	82.19%	17.66%	-25.28	6-7
2009-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 37-36	1589.90	1566.96	59.84%	39.94%	+4.65	7-7
2009-12-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1594.55	1618.86	53.17%	46.60%	+9.39	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-24	1603.94	1488.13	59.63%	40.14%	+11.45	9-7
2009-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-20	1568.81	1423.64	63.62%	36.16%	+8.42	1-0
2009-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 26-31	1577.23	1632.56	48.71%	51.06%	-12.68	1-1
2009-09-27	Miami Dolphins	W 23-13	1564.55	1488.68	66.88%	32.91%	+12.12	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-38	1576.67	1624.01	36.62%	63.16%	-13.49	2-2
2009-10-19	Denver Broncos	L 23-34	1563.18	1516.88	63.02%	36.76%	-24.31	2-3
2009-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-7	1538.87	1349.56	69.27%	30.53%	+19.47	3-3
2009-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 24-16	1558.34	1357.61	80.54%	19.31%	+6.36	4-3
2009-11-08	@ New York Giants	W 21-20	1564.70	1573.98	41.84%	57.93%	+6.74	5-3
2009-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-23	1571.44	1627.15	48.65%	51.11%	+16.82	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	W 32-3	1588.26	1483.97	58.03%	41.74%	+26.17	7-3
2009-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-14	1614.43	1357.67	85.09%	14.78%	+9.26	8-3
2009-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-23	1623.69	1306.45	82.46%	17.40%	+5.35	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1629.04	1568.00	51.88%	47.89%	+9.66	10-3
2009-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1638.70	1517.40	72.39%	27.42%	+5.52	11-3
2009-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 42-17	1644.22	1556.76	55.66%	44.11%	+25.68	12-3
2010-01-03	Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1669.90	1404.59	85.71%	14.17%	+0.95	13-3
2009-09-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-16	1456.33	1543.04	31.54%	68.25%	+15.87	1-0
2009-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-10	1472.20	1463.49	57.85%	41.92%	+17.59	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1489.79	1569.64	32.40%	67.39%	-6.53	2-1
2009-10-04	St. Louis Rams	W 35-0	1483.26	1297.46	79.16%	20.68%	+14.24	3-1
2009-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-45	1497.50	1543.74	50.02%	49.75%	-34.43	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Houston Texans	L 21-24	1463.07	1493.52	38.91%	60.87%	-7.85	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-18	1455.22	1657.58	19.16%	80.68%	-4.46	3-4
2009-11-08	Tennessee Titans	L 27-34	1450.76	1494.64	50.36%	49.41%	-15.50	3-5
2009-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 10-6	1435.26	1477.80	50.55%	49.22%	+11.45	4-5
2009-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-30	1446.71	1506.94	34.92%	64.86%	-9.96	4-6
2009-11-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-3	1436.75	1445.67	55.36%	44.40%	+21.31	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1458.06	1422.08	48.27%	51.49%	-9.73	5-7
2009-12-14	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-9	1448.33	1601.16	35.15%	64.64%	+29.12	6-7
2009-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1477.45	1663.89	20.62%	79.22%	-8.98	6-8
2009-12-27	Detroit Lions	W 20-6	1468.47	1245.97	82.42%	17.43%	+7.59	7-8
2010-01-03	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-6	1476.06	1229.79	75.77%	24.05%	+13.14	8-8
2009-09-13	St. Louis Rams	W 28-0	1445.80	1335.65	71.09%	28.71%	+17.69	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1463.49	1472.20	41.92%	57.85%	-17.59	1-1
2009-09-27	Chicago Bears	L 19-25	1445.90	1513.54	46.94%	52.83%	-13.38	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-34	1432.52	1615.41	20.96%	78.88%	-10.06	1-3
2009-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-0	1422.46	1471.40	49.63%	50.14%	+37.36	2-3
2009-10-18	Arizona Cardinals	L 3-27	1459.82	1531.10	46.42%	53.35%	-26.47	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-38	1433.35	1564.04	26.36%	73.46%	-14.06	2-5
2009-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 32-20	1419.29	1287.14	73.62%	26.19%	+10.56	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-31	1429.85	1573.97	24.89%	74.93%	-9.60	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-35	1420.25	1615.73	19.78%	80.06%	-11.75	3-7
2009-11-29	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-17	1408.50	1268.71	62.91%	36.87%	+13.58	4-7
2009-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1422.08	1458.06	51.49%	48.27%	+9.73	5-7
2009-12-13	@ Houston Texans	L 7-34	1431.81	1485.82	35.74%	64.04%	-21.62	5-8
2009-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-24	1410.19	1348.39	65.07%	34.72%	-31.20	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-48	1378.99	1562.31	20.92%	78.92%	-15.01	5-10
2010-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 13-17	1363.98	1531.09	33.30%	66.49%	-7.75	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-28	1335.65	1445.80	28.71%	71.09%	-17.69	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-9	1317.96	1477.79	23.24%	76.59%	-3.82	0-2
2009-09-27	Green Bay Packers	L 17-36	1314.14	1484.71	32.86%	66.93%	-16.68	0-3
2009-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1297.46	1483.26	20.68%	79.16%	-14.24	0-4
2009-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-38	1283.22	1586.36	18.60%	81.25%	-11.45	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1271.77	1434.04	22.99%	76.84%	-4.64	0-6
2009-10-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-42	1267.13	1648.72	12.70%	87.18%	-8.86	0-7
2009-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1258.27	1306.62	36.49%	63.29%	+19.47	1-7
2009-11-15	New Orleans Saints	L 23-28	1277.74	1673.78	11.81%	88.08%	-3.07	1-8
2009-11-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-21	1274.67	1583.58	18.10%	81.75%	-5.96	1-9
2009-11-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1268.71	1408.50	36.87%	62.91%	-13.57	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1255.14	1444.68	20.33%	79.51%	-6.70	1-11
2009-12-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-47	1248.44	1539.92	12.44%	87.45%	-9.15	1-12
2009-12-20	Houston Texans	L 13-16	1239.29	1507.44	21.83%	78.00%	-4.40	1-13
2009-12-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-31	1234.89	1577.31	9.58%	90.33%	-5.10	1-14
2010-01-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-28	1229.79	1476.06	24.05%	75.77%	-13.14	1-15
2009-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-34	1484.77	1518.29	51.84%	47.92%	-21.75	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-33	1463.02	1441.99	46.13%	53.64%	-19.36	0-2
2009-09-27	New York Giants	L 0-24	1443.66	1602.83	34.32%	65.47%	-19.58	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1424.08	1464.51	37.55%	62.23%	-7.57	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-33	1416.51	1616.00	19.42%	80.42%	-9.85	0-5
2009-10-18	Carolina Panthers	L 21-28	1406.66	1481.00	45.98%	53.79%	-14.16	0-6
2009-10-25	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1392.50	1624.90	20.73%	79.10%	-12.77	0-7
2009-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-28	1379.73	1507.97	38.43%	61.34%	+22.56	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-25	1402.29	1501.69	29.99%	69.81%	-4.93	1-8
2009-11-22	New Orleans Saints	L 7-38	1397.36	1676.85	20.74%	79.10%	-13.45	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1383.91	1540.58	23.56%	76.26%	-4.75	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-16	1379.16	1475.40	30.37%	69.42%	-11.18	1-11
2009-12-13	New York Jets	L 3-26	1367.98	1521.22	35.09%	64.69%	-19.59	1-12
2009-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-7	1348.39	1410.19	34.72%	65.07%	+31.20	2-12
2009-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1379.59	1697.16	10.89%	89.00%	+17.92	3-12
2010-01-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-20	1397.51	1541.77	36.28%	63.50%	-13.36	3-13
2009-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1595.49	1643.85	36.49%	63.29%	-7.36	0-1
2009-09-20	Houston Texans	L 31-34	1588.13	1469.63	72.07%	27.74%	-14.52	0-2
2009-09-27	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1573.61	1528.23	49.63%	50.14%	-15.28	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-37	1558.33	1440.21	59.95%	39.82%	-31.19	0-4
2009-10-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-31	1527.14	1625.47	42.58%	57.19%	-23.24	0-5
2009-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 0-59	1503.90	1597.44	30.70%	69.09%	-27.46	0-6
2009-11-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-13	1476.44	1438.68	61.87%	37.91%	+18.20	1-6
2009-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-27	1494.64	1450.76	49.41%	50.36%	+15.50	2-6
2009-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1510.14	1418.39	68.87%	30.92%	+17.64	3-6
2009-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 20-17	1527.78	1521.98	43.96%	55.81%	+11.24	4-6
2009-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1539.02	1589.53	49.40%	50.36%	+10.16	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1549.18	1690.95	25.14%	74.68%	-9.26	5-7
2009-12-13	St. Louis Rams	W 47-7	1539.92	1248.44	87.45%	12.44%	+9.15	6-7
2009-12-20	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1549.07	1512.97	61.64%	38.14%	+7.69	7-7
2009-12-25	San Diego Chargers	L 17-42	1556.76	1644.22	44.11%	55.66%	-25.67	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1531.09	1363.98	66.49%	33.30%	+7.75	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New York Giants	L 17-23	1486.33	1586.26	29.93%	69.87%	-8.54	0-1
2009-09-20	St. Louis Rams	W 9-7	1477.79	1317.96	76.59%	23.24%	+3.83	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1481.62	1320.06	65.78%	34.01%	-17.11	1-2
2009-10-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1464.51	1424.08	62.23%	37.55%	+7.58	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1472.09	1472.31	43.11%	56.66%	-8.70	2-3
2009-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-14	1463.39	1325.13	74.30%	25.52%	-24.43	2-4
2009-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1438.96	1607.97	33.06%	66.73%	-12.17	2-5
2009-11-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1426.79	1556.12	26.51%	73.30%	-11.55	2-6
2009-11-15	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1415.24	1504.54	43.85%	55.92%	+20.57	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-7	1435.81	1571.78	25.77%	74.04%	-3.00	3-7
2009-11-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1432.81	1618.78	20.67%	79.17%	-4.16	3-8
2009-12-06	New Orleans Saints	L 30-33	1428.65	1710.70	20.50%	79.34%	-4.14	3-9
2009-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-13	1424.51	1357.71	52.71%	47.06%	+25.10	4-9
2009-12-21	New York Giants	L 12-45	1449.61	1545.83	42.87%	56.89%	-28.67	4-10
2009-12-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-17	1420.94	1581.99	34.08%	65.71%	-16.35	4-11
2010-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-23	1404.59	1669.90	14.17%	85.71%	-0.96	4-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2010-01-10	Green Bay Packers	W 51-45	1548.40	1611.33	47.73%	52.27%	+14.86	1-0
2010-01-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-45	1563.26	1670.72	29.11%	70.89%	-18.81	1-1
2010-01-10	@ New England Patriots	W 33-14	1616.07	1637.06	40.32%	59.68%	+30.21	1-0
2010-01-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-20	1646.28	1664.13	40.75%	59.25%	-19.51	1-1
2010-01-09	New York Jets	L 14-24	1491.28	1589.08	42.76%	57.24%	-15.70	0-1
2010-01-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1629.38	1646.18	54.36%	45.64%	+23.69	1-0
2010-01-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-34	1653.07	1608.57	49.62%	50.38%	-32.07	1-1
2010-01-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 45-51	1611.33	1548.40	52.27%	47.73%	-14.86	0-1
2010-01-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1664.13	1646.28	59.25%	40.75%	+19.51	1-0
2010-01-24	New York Jets	W 30-17	1683.64	1618.00	65.69%	34.31%	+14.37	2-0
2010-02-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1698.01	1696.88	50.16%	49.84%	-21.79	2-1
2010-01-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-3	1608.57	1653.07	50.38%	49.62%	+32.07	1-0
2010-01-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-31	1640.64	1689.53	36.52%	63.48%	-7.34	1-1
2010-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-33	1637.06	1616.07	59.68%	40.32%	-30.20	0-1
2010-01-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 45-14	1670.72	1563.26	70.89%	29.11%	+18.81	1-0
2010-01-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1689.53	1640.64	63.48%	36.52%	+7.35	2-0
2010-02-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1696.88	1698.01	49.84%	50.16%	+21.79	3-0
2010-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1589.08	1491.28	57.24%	42.76%	+15.70	1-0
2010-01-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1604.78	1670.85	34.26%	65.74%	+13.22	2-0
2010-01-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-30	1618.00	1683.64	34.31%	65.69%	-14.36	2-1
2010-01-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-34	1646.18	1629.38	45.64%	54.36%	-23.70	0-1
2010-01-17	New York Jets	L 14-17	1670.85	1604.78	65.74%	34.26%	-13.22	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2009-12-27	10.89%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1379.59	20	@ New Orleans Saints	1697.16	17
2	2009-12-06	12.36%	Oakland Raiders	1340.09	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1632.79	24
3	2009-11-22	17.34%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1341.05	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1658.96	24
4	2009-12-10	17.66%	@ Cleveland Browns	1301.09	13	Pittsburgh Steelers	1615.18	6
5	2010-01-03	19.24%	Kansas City Chiefs	1289.60	44	@ Denver Broncos	1491.14	24
6	2010-01-03	20.47%	@ Buffalo Bills	1396.50	30	Indianapolis Colts	1678.89	7
7	2009-12-27	20.79%	New York Jets	1528.60	29	@ Indianapolis Colts	1713.27	15
8	2009-10-11	21.35%	Cincinnati Bengals	1460.66	17	@ Baltimore Ravens	1639.48	14
9	2009-12-20	22.02%	Oakland Raiders	1332.61	20	@ Denver Broncos	1504.52	19
10	2009-11-15	22.56%	Cincinnati Bengals	1514.50	18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1680.97	12
11	2009-10-18	22.91%	@ Oakland Raiders	1368.48	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1625.85	9
12	2009-12-19	22.97%	Dallas Cowboys	1558.35	24	@ New Orleans Saints	1720.80	17
13	2009-10-18	25.52%	Kansas City Chiefs	1325.13	14	@ Washington Redskins	1463.39	6
14	2009-09-20	27.74%	Houston Texans	1469.63	34	@ Tennessee Titans	1588.13	31
15	2009-09-20	28.14%	New Orleans Saints	1535.90	48	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1650.90	22
16	2009-10-18	28.37%	Buffalo Bills	1404.00	16	@ New York Jets	1517.07	13
17	2009-11-01	28.95%	Carolina Panthers	1469.32	34	@ Arizona Cardinals	1577.46	21
18	2009-11-22	28.95%	@ Oakland Raiders	1334.03	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1536.50	17
19	2009-09-27	29.15%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1437.47	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1638.24	20
20	2009-09-20	31.20%	Cincinnati Bengals	1416.36	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1505.82	24
21	2009-11-15	31.30%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1426.75	24	@ New York Jets	1515.41	22
22	2009-09-13	31.54%	San Francisco 49ers	1456.33	20	@ Arizona Cardinals	1543.04	16
23	2009-12-28	32.09%	@ Chicago Bears	1425.65	36	Minnesota Vikings	1602.31	30
24	2009-10-25	32.79%	Buffalo Bills	1418.39	20	@ Carolina Panthers	1495.16	9
25	2009-09-27	34.01%	@ Detroit Lions	1320.06	19	Washington Redskins	1481.62	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2009-12-27	43.01	Carolina Panthers	41	1510.41	34.42%	@ New York Giants	9	1574.50	65.37%
2	2009-09-20	42.49	New Orleans Saints	48	1535.90	28.14%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	22	1650.90	71.66%
3	2010-01-03	41.91	Kansas City Chiefs	44	1289.60	19.24%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1491.14	80.61%
4	2009-10-11	37.36	@ Seattle Seahawks	41	1422.46	49.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	0	1471.40	50.14%
5	2009-10-25	36.85	@ Cincinnati Bengals	45	1454.34	46.23%	Chicago Bears	10	1526.91	53.53%
6	2009-10-11	34.43	Atlanta Falcons	45	1543.74	49.75%	@ San Francisco 49ers	10	1497.50	50.02%
7	2009-12-27	34.38	New York Jets	29	1528.60	20.79%	@ Indianapolis Colts	15	1713.27	79.05%
8	2010-01-03	34.02	Green Bay Packers	33	1577.31	42.42%	@ Arizona Cardinals	7	1582.42	57.35%
9	2009-12-20	33.12	@ Carolina Panthers	26	1477.29	34.45%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1635.43	65.33%
10	2010-01-17 *	32.07	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1608.57	50.38%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1653.07	49.62%
11	2009-12-20	31.20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	1348.39	34.72%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1410.19	65.07%
12	2009-10-04	31.19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	37	1440.21	39.82%	Tennessee Titans	17	1558.33	59.95%
13	2009-11-26	31.16	@ Denver Broncos	26	1457.80	39.89%	New York Giants	6	1575.42	59.88%
14	2010-01-03	31.03	@ Dallas Cowboys	24	1598.35	45.34%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1677.21	54.43%
15	2010-01-10 *	30.21	Baltimore Ravens	33	1616.07	40.32%	@ New England Patriots	14	1637.06	59.68%
16	2009-11-01	29.71	Carolina Panthers	34	1469.32	28.95%	@ Arizona Cardinals	21	1577.46	70.85%
17	2009-11-29	29.61	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1393.10	38.05%	Miami Dolphins	14	1524.19	61.73%
18	2009-12-14	29.12	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1448.33	35.15%	Arizona Cardinals	9	1601.16	64.64%
19	2009-10-25	28.76	New York Jets	38	1502.68	59.70%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1386.37	40.07%
20	2009-12-21	28.67	New York Giants	45	1545.83	56.89%	@ Washington Redskins	12	1449.61	42.87%
21	2009-09-13	28.14	New York Jets	24	1483.26	41.11%	@ Houston Texans	7	1497.77	58.66%
22	2009-12-06	27.52	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1622.95	54.25%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1545.33	45.51%
23	2009-10-18	27.46	@ New England Patriots	59	1597.44	69.09%	Tennessee Titans	0	1503.90	30.70%
24	2009-09-27	26.99	Indianapolis Colts	31	1588.42	49.15%	@ Arizona Cardinals	10	1546.35	50.61%
25	2009-09-27	26.67	Denver Broncos	23	1462.65	48.51%	@ Oakland Raiders	3	1425.01	51.25%