2006 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Indianapolis Colts

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1970

Runner-Up

Chicago Bears

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1985

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Ravens

3.53 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.47 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

3.10 wins below expected

5 wins · 8.10 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	385	237	+148	10.56	+1.44
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	316	295	+21	7.67	+2.33
3	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	5	300	311	-11	6.45	+0.55
4	Miami Dolphins	6	10	.375	6	260	283	-23	7.22	-1.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	13	3	.812	—	353	201	+152	9.47	+3.53
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	5	353	315	+38	9.86	-1.86
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	5	373	331	+42	8.46	-0.46
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	9	238	356	-118	5.65	-1.65

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	12	4	.750	—	427	360	+67	11.00	+1.00
2	Tennessee Titans	8	8	.500	4	324	400	-76	5.24	+2.76
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	8	.500	4	371	274	+97	9.12	-1.12
4	Houston Texans	6	10	.375	6	267	366	-99	5.28	+0.72

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	14	2	.875	—	492	303	+189	11.49	+2.51
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	9	7	.562	5	331	315	+16	8.78	+0.22
3	Denver Broncos	9	7	.562	5	319	305	+14	9.68	-0.68
4	Oakland Raiders	2	14	.125	12	168	332	-164	4.77	-2.77

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	10	6	.625	—	398	328	+70	8.20	+1.80
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	425	350	+75	9.23	-0.23
3	New York Giants Playoffs	8	8	.500	2	355	362	-7	8.65	-0.65
4	Washington Redskins	5	11	.312	5	307	376	-69	8.10	-3.10

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	13	3	.812	—	427	255	+172	11.32	+1.68
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	5	301	366	-65	6.80	+1.20
3	Minnesota Vikings	6	10	.375	7	282	327	-45	8.63	-2.63
4	Detroit Lions	3	13	.188	10	305	398	-93	5.16	-2.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	10	6	.625	—	413	322	+91	7.83	+2.17
2	Carolina Panthers	8	8	.500	2	270	305	-35	9.12	-1.12
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	3	292	328	-36	7.76	-0.76
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	12	.250	6	211	353	-142	5.81	-1.81

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	9	7	.562	—	335	341	-6	10.14	-1.14
2	St. Louis Rams	8	8	.500	1	367	381	-14	7.12	+0.88
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	9	.438	2	298	412	-114	5.73	+1.27
4	Arizona Cardinals	5	11	.312	4	314	389	-75	5.72	-0.72

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Indianapolis Colts 23

Kansas City Chiefs 8

Jan 6

New England Patriots 37

New York Jets 16

Jan 7

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 15

Baltimore Ravens 6

Jan 13

New England Patriots 24

San Diego Chargers 21

Jan 14

Conference Championship

Indianapolis Colts 38

New England Patriots 34

Jan 21

NFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 21

Dallas Cowboys 20

Jan 6

Philadelphia Eagles 23

New York Giants 20

Jan 7

Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints 27

Philadelphia Eagles 24

Jan 13

Chicago Bears 27

Seattle Seahawks 24

Jan 14

Conference Championship

Chicago Bears 39

New Orleans Saints 14

Jan 21

Super Bowl

Indianapolis Colts 29

Chicago Bears 17

Feb 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1752	14	11.49	+2.51	96.94%	3	9	10	12	13	14	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1703	13	9.47	+3.53	98.62%	2	6	8	9	11	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1672	12	10.56	+1.44	86.13%	4	7	9	11	12	13	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1659	13	11.32	+1.68	90.57%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1639	12	11.00	+1.00	80.03%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1605	8	9.86	-1.86	23.86%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1576	8	9.12	-1.12	37.30%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1571	10	8.20	+1.80	88.42%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1569	9	9.68	-0.68	45.78%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1567	9	8.78	+0.22	65.19%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1552	8	8.46	-0.46	51.34%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1544	10	7.83	+2.17	91.56%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1522	10	7.67	+2.33	93.60%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1522	9	10.14	-1.14	35.80%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1516	7	6.45	+0.55	71.95%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1512	8	9.12	-1.12	37.30%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1504	9	9.23	-0.23	55.69%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1498	8	8.65	-0.65	46.68%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1482	8	5.24	+2.76	96.38%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1474	6	7.22	-1.22	35.41%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1464	8	7.12	+0.88	76.72%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1433	8	6.80	+1.20	81.42%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1414	5	8.10	-3.10	9.02%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1411	7	7.76	-0.76	45.45%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1400	6	8.63	-2.63	13.91%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1396	5	5.72	-0.72	46.14%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1390	7	5.73	+1.27	83.69%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1387	6	5.28	+0.72	76.12%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1354	4	5.81	-1.81	24.74%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1327	4	5.65	-1.65	27.56%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1323	3	5.16	-2.16	18.12%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1267	2	4.77	-2.77	9.21%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	3-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (3.2 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (2.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Ravens	13	9.47	+3.53
2	Tennessee Titans	8	5.24	+2.76
3	San Diego Chargers	14	11.49	+2.51
4	New York Jets	10	7.67	+2.33
5	New Orleans Saints	10	7.83	+2.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	5	8.10	-3.10
2	Oakland Raiders	2	4.77	-2.77
3	Minnesota Vikings	6	8.63	-2.63
4	Detroit Lions	3	5.16	-2.16
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	9.86	-1.86

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tennessee Titans	6	Nov 19 – Dec 24	1 in 884
2	Miami Dolphins	4	Nov 5 – Nov 23	1 in 52
3	Green Bay Packers	4	Dec 10 – Dec 31	1 in 48
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	Dec 4 – Dec 31	1 in 45
5	Indianapolis Colts	9	Sep 10 – Nov 12	1 in 43

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arizona Cardinals	8	Sep 17 – Nov 12	1 in 46
2	Minnesota Vikings	4	Oct 30 – Nov 19	1 in 37
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	Nov 5 – Nov 26	1 in 29
4	New York Giants	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 25
5	Carolina Panthers	4	Nov 26 – Dec 17	1 in 24

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	75.40%	16.88%	5.97%	1.75%
New York Jets	11.38%	35.18%	30.67%	22.77%
Miami Dolphins	8.38%	28.94%	33.48%	29.20%
Buffalo Bills	4.84%	19.00%	29.88%	46.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	43.10%	32.37%	19.77%	4.76%
Baltimore Ravens	37.01%	33.63%	23.74%	5.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	18.38%	28.55%	39.35%	13.72%
Cleveland Browns	1.51%	5.45%	17.14%	75.90%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	73.41%	24.08%	2.27%	0.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	25.16%	61.79%	11.19%	1.86%
Tennessee Titans	0.72%	7.24%	43.57%	48.47%
Houston Texans	0.71%	6.89%	42.97%	49.43%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	66.28%	24.94%	8.29%	0.49%
Denver Broncos	22.49%	43.34%	31.31%	2.86%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.08%	30.47%	51.89%	6.56%
Oakland Raiders	0.15%	1.25%	8.51%	90.09%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	36.35%	26.94%	21.60%	15.11%
New York Giants	26.57%	26.55%	24.40%	22.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.98%	23.17%	26.87%	30.98%
Washington Redskins	18.10%	23.34%	27.13%	31.43%

Team	1	2	3	4
Chicago Bears	79.17%	17.70%	2.74%	0.39%
Minnesota Vikings	16.44%	53.68%	23.22%	6.66%
Green Bay Packers	3.72%	21.66%	48.64%	25.98%
Detroit Lions	0.67%	6.96%	25.40%	66.97%

Team	1	2	3	4
Carolina Panthers	48.87%	28.30%	16.28%	6.55%
New Orleans Saints	23.11%	29.74%	29.28%	17.87%
Atlanta Falcons	22.90%	29.43%	29.65%	18.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.12%	12.53%	24.79%	57.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	79.23%	15.63%	4.17%	0.97%
St. Louis Rams	12.97%	42.81%	27.37%	16.85%
Arizona Cardinals	3.79%	21.22%	34.26%	40.73%
San Francisco 49ers	4.01%	20.34%	34.20%	41.45%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
San Diego Chargers	30.18%	19.30%	14.66%	10.82%	7.84%	5.83%	3.87%	2.90%	1.95%	1.20%	0.78%	0.41%	0.16%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	20.34%	19.61%	15.51%	12.79%	9.82%	6.73%	5.41%	4.19%	2.28%	1.53%	0.80%	0.52%	0.31%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%
New England Patriots	14.92%	15.76%	15.83%	14.31%	10.21%	7.59%	6.19%	4.83%	3.80%	2.79%	1.61%	1.06%	0.69%	0.24%	0.13%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.85%	10.56%	11.85%	11.07%	10.63%	10.24%	8.51%	7.44%	6.48%	5.05%	3.96%	2.52%	1.43%	0.81%	0.44%	0.16%
Denver Broncos	7.72%	8.07%	8.73%	10.74%	11.83%	10.89%	9.83%	8.69%	7.97%	5.81%	4.49%	2.39%	1.45%	0.85%	0.37%	0.17%
Baltimore Ravens	6.09%	8.44%	10.09%	10.40%	10.46%	10.40%	9.17%	8.61%	7.44%	6.54%	4.98%	3.24%	2.00%	1.28%	0.59%	0.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.35%	6.36%	7.41%	8.80%	9.43%	11.31%	12.50%	10.96%	8.75%	6.88%	5.12%	3.88%	2.15%	1.25%	0.59%	0.26%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.01%	4.35%	5.33%	6.61%	9.07%	9.63%	9.49%	10.78%	11.22%	9.74%	7.76%	5.94%	3.09%	2.09%	1.44%	0.45%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.22%	4.15%	4.99%	6.01%	7.41%	8.08%	9.28%	9.11%	10.22%	10.59%	9.24%	6.71%	4.79%	3.21%	2.18%	0.81%
New York Jets	0.75%	1.54%	2.46%	3.37%	5.48%	6.63%	8.54%	10.00%	10.42%	10.45%	10.50%	9.53%	7.77%	6.01%	3.92%	2.63%
Miami Dolphins	0.30%	1.01%	1.55%	2.47%	3.84%	5.55%	7.07%	8.52%	9.79%	10.82%	11.13%	10.41%	10.02%	8.25%	5.94%	3.33%
Buffalo Bills	0.19%	0.46%	0.99%	1.49%	1.96%	3.14%	4.39%	5.67%	7.04%	9.02%	10.59%	12.08%	12.52%	12.44%	10.62%	7.40%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.20%	0.29%	0.52%	0.78%	1.61%	2.10%	2.58%	4.34%	5.53%	7.58%	11.04%	14.10%	17.16%	16.92%	15.23%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.10%	0.11%	0.26%	0.48%	1.02%	1.57%	2.31%	3.21%	5.56%	8.31%	11.55%	14.07%	14.24%	16.30%	20.89%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%	0.08%	0.14%	0.26%	0.56%	0.92%	1.47%	2.26%	3.35%	5.51%	8.39%	11.51%	13.41%	15.03%	17.10%	19.99%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.20%	0.43%	0.61%	1.15%	1.74%	2.98%	4.76%	7.21%	12.04%	17.00%	23.38%	28.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Chicago Bears	39.88%	21.32%	13.94%	8.59%	5.60%	3.68%	2.77%	1.55%	1.14%	0.64%	0.36%	0.20%	0.18%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	19.29%	17.88%	15.13%	13.38%	8.99%	6.96%	4.74%	4.14%	2.78%	2.30%	1.78%	1.00%	0.72%	0.44%	0.34%	0.13%
Carolina Panthers	7.86%	11.81%	11.62%	11.13%	10.23%	8.01%	8.16%	6.64%	6.11%	5.13%	3.86%	3.14%	2.42%	1.91%	1.45%	0.52%
Dallas Cowboys	8.03%	11.05%	11.97%	9.99%	10.01%	8.87%	7.80%	6.67%	6.32%	5.43%	4.22%	3.66%	2.90%	1.94%	0.80%	0.34%
Minnesota Vikings	5.57%	6.36%	7.21%	8.87%	9.95%	10.48%	10.22%	8.95%	7.30%	6.30%	5.49%	4.55%	3.48%	2.49%	1.67%	1.11%
New York Giants	6.14%	7.60%	8.77%	8.64%	8.94%	8.92%	7.88%	7.87%	7.53%	6.33%	5.55%	4.93%	4.34%	3.38%	2.19%	0.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.33%	5.83%	6.38%	7.41%	8.16%	8.15%	8.25%	7.81%	7.68%	7.37%	7.07%	6.57%	6.21%	4.60%	3.30%	1.88%
Washington Redskins	3.26%	4.96%	6.36%	7.15%	7.83%	8.11%	7.28%	8.23%	8.63%	7.68%	7.24%	6.62%	6.37%	4.81%	3.37%	2.10%
New Orleans Saints	2.35%	4.43%	5.50%	6.88%	7.71%	7.98%	8.20%	7.81%	8.18%	7.87%	7.91%	6.71%	6.39%	5.32%	4.01%	2.75%
Atlanta Falcons	1.99%	4.27%	5.58%	6.29%	7.12%	8.21%	7.97%	8.54%	7.95%	8.62%	7.45%	7.20%	5.96%	5.47%	4.47%	2.91%
St. Louis Rams	0.97%	1.90%	2.99%	4.36%	5.29%	6.81%	7.96%	8.46%	8.92%	9.09%	8.72%	8.28%	7.59%	7.12%	6.52%	5.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.88%	1.16%	1.86%	2.81%	4.06%	4.79%	5.96%	6.98%	8.03%	9.06%	10.13%	10.19%	9.86%	9.00%	8.28%	6.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.19%	0.55%	0.97%	1.62%	2.10%	2.55%	3.74%	4.30%	5.04%	5.89%	7.53%	8.85%	11.06%	13.49%	16.50%	15.62%
San Francisco 49ers	0.08%	0.37%	0.61%	1.23%	1.66%	2.78%	3.40%	4.84%	5.53%	6.74%	8.21%	9.73%	10.88%	12.85%	13.82%	17.27%
Arizona Cardinals	0.14%	0.36%	0.69%	1.20%	1.45%	2.41%	3.58%	4.58%	5.63%	6.82%	8.16%	10.47%	11.16%	12.85%	13.40%	17.10%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.15%	0.42%	0.45%	0.90%	1.29%	2.09%	2.63%	3.23%	4.73%	6.32%	7.90%	10.48%	14.23%	19.84%	25.30%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Chicago Bears	16.76%	17.78%	10.54%	11.28%	6.92%	7.84%	4.67%	5.26%	3.00%	3.45%	2.23%	2.30%	1.58%	1.50%	1.08%	0.83%	0.80%	0.52%	0.41%	0.31%	0.22%	0.18%	0.13%	0.09%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	0.04%	—	0.01%	0.02%	—
San Diego Chargers	21.50%	13.02%	12.03%	8.53%	8.29%	6.10%	5.59%	3.94%	4.08%	2.97%	2.71%	1.99%	1.97%	1.62%	1.21%	1.00%	0.76%	0.73%	0.52%	0.37%	0.34%	0.24%	0.15%	0.11%	0.05%	0.07%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	13.71%	11.35%	11.63%	8.43%	8.46%	6.80%	6.54%	5.02%	4.85%	3.86%	3.41%	2.48%	3.05%	2.02%	2.08%	1.40%	1.16%	0.87%	0.72%	0.48%	0.46%	0.32%	0.31%	0.22%	0.12%	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%
New England Patriots	9.81%	8.85%	9.62%	7.54%	8.61%	6.90%	6.86%	5.68%	5.44%	4.49%	3.45%	3.46%	3.22%	2.79%	2.16%	1.85%	1.81%	1.73%	1.50%	0.86%	0.91%	0.59%	0.53%	0.50%	0.26%	0.18%	0.14%	0.12%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	6.62%	9.09%	7.29%	9.01%	6.48%	8.20%	5.96%	7.57%	4.62%	5.04%	4.17%	4.34%	2.71%	2.91%	2.46%	2.63%	1.81%	1.54%	1.41%	1.41%	1.21%	0.77%	0.59%	0.54%	0.42%	0.38%	0.25%	0.19%	0.19%	0.10%	0.07%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.58%	5.02%	6.57%	6.04%	6.88%	5.51%	6.19%	4.97%	5.74%	5.19%	5.07%	4.02%	4.44%	3.68%	3.78%	2.80%	3.36%	2.45%	2.52%	1.83%	1.97%	1.59%	1.29%	0.88%	0.65%	0.69%	0.42%	0.31%	0.24%	0.20%	0.09%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	4.72%	4.13%	5.41%	4.82%	5.45%	4.91%	6.48%	4.98%	6.58%	5.38%	5.33%	4.30%	4.95%	4.50%	4.10%	3.51%	3.55%	3.15%	2.52%	2.35%	1.89%	1.92%	1.22%	1.02%	0.80%	0.70%	0.34%	0.45%	0.19%	0.21%	0.05%	0.09%
Baltimore Ravens	3.82%	3.63%	5.23%	4.57%	6.10%	4.93%	5.69%	4.89%	5.80%	4.82%	5.13%	4.81%	4.55%	4.61%	4.00%	3.62%	3.65%	3.07%	3.23%	2.48%	2.10%	2.30%	1.67%	1.29%	1.05%	0.96%	0.68%	0.55%	0.30%	0.27%	0.11%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	2.30%	4.04%	3.97%	5.42%	4.99%	6.09%	5.08%	5.46%	4.96%	5.36%	4.40%	5.05%	4.20%	4.49%	3.72%	3.96%	3.34%	3.22%	2.71%	3.09%	2.53%	2.14%	2.29%	1.65%	1.47%	1.27%	1.09%	0.78%	0.44%	0.28%	0.16%	0.05%
Carolina Panthers	2.34%	4.06%	4.02%	5.39%	5.05%	5.47%	5.77%	5.59%	4.57%	5.51%	4.78%	4.91%	4.31%	4.01%	3.89%	3.95%	3.20%	3.04%	2.93%	3.13%	2.46%	1.88%	1.86%	1.59%	1.26%	1.31%	1.16%	0.94%	0.71%	0.51%	0.26%	0.14%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.70%	2.62%	3.95%	3.36%	4.88%	4.31%	4.67%	4.44%	5.39%	4.64%	5.73%	5.23%	6.38%	4.92%	4.92%	4.58%	4.08%	3.94%	3.11%	3.18%	2.54%	2.07%	2.13%	1.86%	1.25%	0.94%	0.66%	0.65%	0.36%	0.30%	0.12%	0.09%
Minnesota Vikings	1.50%	2.56%	2.60%	3.28%	3.22%	3.59%	3.75%	4.96%	4.24%	4.98%	4.46%	6.24%	4.48%	5.07%	4.30%	5.48%	3.90%	4.04%	3.73%	3.59%	2.97%	3.06%	2.53%	2.41%	2.07%	1.99%	1.38%	1.10%	1.06%	0.55%	0.64%	0.27%
New York Giants	1.67%	2.80%	2.71%	3.62%	3.70%	4.25%	4.52%	4.54%	4.45%	4.17%	4.59%	4.98%	4.30%	4.32%	4.31%	3.98%	4.12%	4.05%	3.58%	3.51%	3.09%	2.90%	2.83%	2.42%	2.40%	2.21%	1.81%	1.39%	1.22%	0.81%	0.48%	0.27%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.75%	2.01%	2.83%	2.65%	3.27%	3.07%	4.06%	3.82%	5.17%	4.57%	5.07%	4.20%	5.26%	4.92%	5.30%	4.45%	5.56%	4.53%	4.49%	3.67%	3.51%	3.55%	2.48%	2.43%	1.80%	1.51%	1.34%	0.99%	0.69%	0.61%	0.30%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.80%	1.79%	2.66%	2.15%	3.03%	2.93%	3.45%	2.99%	4.65%	3.75%	4.39%	3.80%	5.03%	4.62%	4.66%	3.98%	4.88%	4.81%	5.10%	4.45%	4.11%	4.20%	2.92%	2.93%	2.40%	2.30%	1.57%	1.57%	1.14%	1.00%	0.55%	0.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.81%	1.52%	1.66%	3.12%	2.60%	3.25%	3.02%	4.04%	3.65%	4.24%	4.29%	4.54%	4.16%	4.45%	3.99%	4.43%	4.08%	4.18%	3.93%	4.04%	4.10%	3.49%	3.82%	3.13%	3.40%	2.94%	2.35%	2.10%	1.73%	1.38%	0.84%	0.72%
Washington Redskins	0.72%	1.44%	1.69%	2.32%	2.57%	3.21%	3.22%	3.96%	3.14%	4.09%	4.20%	4.22%	3.81%	3.96%	4.26%	4.63%	4.87%	4.37%	4.19%	4.39%	3.97%	3.67%	3.70%	3.43%	3.16%	3.08%	2.56%	2.10%	1.76%	1.52%	1.12%	0.67%
New Orleans Saints	0.47%	1.24%	1.19%	2.06%	2.19%	2.86%	2.75%	3.25%	3.18%	4.09%	4.13%	4.09%	3.85%	4.36%	4.03%	4.60%	4.26%	4.08%	4.54%	4.29%	4.15%	4.46%	3.20%	4.07%	3.43%	3.37%	2.84%	2.60%	2.28%	1.78%	1.32%	0.99%
Atlanta Falcons	0.42%	1.14%	1.16%	2.05%	1.76%	2.83%	2.52%	3.49%	2.95%	3.79%	3.67%	4.14%	3.75%	4.39%	4.34%	4.52%	3.82%	4.84%	4.50%	4.70%	4.25%	3.96%	4.26%	3.74%	3.35%	3.08%	3.03%	2.86%	2.29%	1.97%	1.57%	0.86%
New York Jets	0.40%	0.51%	0.94%	1.08%	1.52%	1.39%	2.05%	2.14%	3.07%	3.19%	3.49%	3.68%	4.29%	4.28%	4.75%	4.55%	5.21%	5.32%	4.72%	4.77%	4.87%	4.81%	4.82%	4.27%	4.01%	3.27%	3.21%	2.83%	2.19%	1.65%	1.60%	1.12%
St. Louis Rams	0.21%	0.39%	0.60%	1.00%	0.91%	1.41%	1.58%	2.24%	2.04%	2.83%	2.71%	3.44%	3.21%	4.02%	4.02%	4.97%	3.83%	4.85%	4.73%	5.44%	4.20%	5.04%	4.92%	4.34%	4.39%	3.68%	4.05%	3.73%	3.64%	3.00%	2.66%	1.92%
Miami Dolphins	0.12%	0.25%	0.52%	0.67%	0.75%	1.23%	1.53%	1.46%	2.10%	2.24%	2.98%	2.73%	3.83%	3.95%	4.48%	3.99%	4.88%	4.62%	5.05%	4.93%	5.51%	5.07%	5.08%	4.96%	5.07%	4.55%	3.99%	3.76%	3.30%	2.69%	2.10%	1.61%
Green Bay Packers	0.17%	0.41%	0.42%	0.49%	0.67%	0.83%	0.96%	1.65%	1.61%	1.89%	2.04%	2.86%	2.38%	3.03%	3.38%	3.97%	3.82%	4.23%	4.35%	4.80%	5.26%	5.32%	5.23%	5.48%	5.16%	5.30%	4.53%	4.83%	4.72%	3.98%	3.54%	2.69%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.12%	0.27%	0.32%	0.52%	0.62%	0.83%	0.85%	1.21%	1.27%	1.69%	1.49%	2.41%	2.17%	2.88%	2.89%	3.59%	4.00%	4.36%	4.14%	5.13%	5.16%	5.56%	5.84%	5.87%	5.64%	6.19%	5.83%	5.26%	5.55%	4.63%	3.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.08%	0.08%	0.17%	0.34%	0.44%	0.65%	0.69%	0.74%	0.98%	1.30%	1.21%	1.50%	1.67%	2.39%	2.17%	2.28%	2.58%	3.23%	3.44%	3.69%	4.10%	4.53%	5.10%	5.48%	6.32%	6.60%	7.36%	7.52%	8.26%	7.54%	7.55%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.04%	0.08%	0.15%	0.19%	0.22%	0.30%	0.59%	0.63%	0.96%	0.81%	1.45%	1.22%	1.78%	1.92%	2.59%	2.20%	3.01%	3.48%	3.85%	3.95%	4.63%	4.65%	5.59%	5.75%	5.67%	6.94%	6.70%	7.36%	7.21%	8.07%	8.01%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.13%	0.23%	0.35%	0.37%	0.45%	0.55%	0.77%	0.89%	1.22%	1.14%	1.72%	2.03%	2.46%	2.36%	3.19%	3.23%	3.89%	4.04%	4.29%	4.92%	5.86%	6.11%	6.26%	6.56%	6.24%	7.31%	7.59%	7.98%	7.71%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.01%	0.11%	0.11%	0.18%	0.17%	0.19%	0.40%	0.63%	0.41%	0.92%	0.69%	1.32%	1.16%	1.50%	1.43%	2.48%	2.14%	2.88%	2.91%	3.97%	4.32%	5.09%	4.98%	6.33%	6.49%	7.59%	8.64%	7.81%	8.64%	8.03%	8.47%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.08%	0.04%	0.04%	0.24%	0.17%	0.28%	0.28%	0.64%	0.58%	0.83%	0.88%	1.14%	1.27%	1.82%	2.08%	2.50%	2.60%	3.71%	3.94%	4.72%	5.62%	6.07%	7.03%	7.16%	7.47%	7.90%	8.69%	10.64%	11.51%
Tennessee Titans	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%	0.06%	0.11%	0.22%	0.21%	0.28%	0.25%	0.55%	0.55%	0.78%	0.83%	1.12%	1.29%	1.82%	2.02%	2.45%	2.93%	3.50%	3.99%	4.77%	5.55%	5.44%	7.27%	6.91%	7.90%	7.75%	9.94%	9.74%	11.65%
Detroit Lions	—	—	0.05%	0.07%	0.12%	0.09%	0.23%	0.26%	0.25%	0.42%	0.56%	0.68%	0.75%	1.00%	1.17%	1.57%	1.54%	1.65%	2.00%	2.52%	3.11%	3.47%	4.24%	4.25%	5.42%	5.54%	7.46%	7.60%	9.82%	9.91%	11.97%	12.28%
Oakland Raiders	—	0.02%	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.06%	0.04%	0.15%	0.12%	0.21%	0.32%	0.34%	0.37%	0.63%	0.65%	1.16%	1.15%	1.38%	1.65%	2.28%	2.57%	3.56%	3.85%	5.42%	5.82%	7.04%	8.30%	10.75%	11.32%	13.76%	16.99%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	30.18%	18.15%	12.12%	5.83%	13.97%	7.67%	12.08%
Indianapolis Colts	20.34%	20.58%	16.89%	15.60%	6.24%	6.18%	14.17%
New England Patriots	14.92%	16.87%	19.12%	24.49%	2.44%	3.73%	18.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.85%	10.94%	13.02%	10.29%	9.94%	9.80%	37.16%
Denver Broncos	7.72%	6.89%	4.98%	2.90%	20.44%	13.49%	43.58%
Baltimore Ravens	6.09%	8.83%	11.32%	10.77%	8.57%	10.15%	44.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.35%	6.42%	6.91%	7.48%	10.09%	12.18%	52.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.22%	4.23%	5.53%	5.40%	6.87%	8.07%	66.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.01%	3.37%	3.03%	1.67%	13.03%	11.96%	63.93%
New York Jets	0.75%	1.64%	3.13%	5.86%	3.30%	6.10%	79.22%
Miami Dolphins	0.30%	1.13%	1.94%	5.01%	2.45%	4.46%	84.71%
Buffalo Bills	0.19%	0.50%	1.26%	2.89%	1.29%	2.50%	91.37%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.23%	0.35%	0.91%	0.55%	1.37%	96.57%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.10%	0.13%	0.46%	0.33%	1.02%	97.94%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%	0.11%	0.22%	0.37%	0.32%	0.90%	98.06%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	0.17%	0.42%	99.26%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	39.88%	20.75%	12.49%	6.05%	8.64%	4.98%	7.21%
Seattle Seahawks	19.29%	18.80%	18.90%	22.24%	2.69%	3.05%	15.03%
Dallas Cowboys	8.03%	11.23%	10.72%	6.37%	11.70%	10.37%	41.58%
Carolina Panthers	7.86%	12.39%	13.70%	14.92%	6.38%	6.94%	37.81%
New York Giants	6.14%	7.84%	7.48%	5.11%	11.05%	9.66%	52.72%
Minnesota Vikings	5.57%	4.55%	3.82%	2.50%	16.90%	13.70%	52.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.33%	5.90%	5.68%	4.07%	9.74%	9.08%	62.20%
Washington Redskins	3.26%	4.92%	5.73%	4.19%	9.05%	8.83%	64.02%
New Orleans Saints	2.35%	4.73%	6.57%	9.46%	5.46%	7.08%	64.35%
Atlanta Falcons	1.99%	4.54%	6.44%	9.93%	4.77%	6.86%	65.47%
St. Louis Rams	0.97%	1.91%	3.83%	6.26%	4.13%	6.11%	76.79%
Green Bay Packers	0.88%	0.93%	1.02%	0.89%	5.06%	5.64%	85.58%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.19%	0.59%	1.51%	2.83%	1.32%	2.15%	91.41%
Arizona Cardinals	0.14%	0.39%	1.02%	2.24%	1.04%	2.01%	93.16%
San Francisco 49ers	0.08%	0.41%	0.85%	2.67%	1.15%	2.17%	92.67%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.12%	0.24%	0.27%	0.92%	1.37%	97.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	76.14%	76.14%	51.94%	33.75%	24.04%
Chicago Bears	84.68%	84.68%	60.91%	42.86%	18.78%
New England Patriots	62.22%	62.22%	33.40%	16.24%	10.71%
Indianapolis Colts	66.27%	66.27%	32.08%	14.95%	8.86%
Baltimore Ravens	41.23%	41.23%	23.26%	12.65%	8.56%
Pittsburgh Steelers	43.05%	40.02%	17.65%	7.25%	4.20%
Seattle Seahawks	65.59%	65.59%	31.58%	13.75%	3.90%
Carolina Panthers	43.53%	43.53%	20.44%	8.33%	2.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	28.57%	26.21%	14.15%	6.83%	2.64%
Denver Broncos	41.81%	31.46%	12.03%	4.60%	2.32%
Jacksonville Jaguars	36.66%	26.77%	10.56%	3.71%	2.14%
New Orleans Saints	28.57%	23.22%	11.73%	5.80%	2.06%
Dallas Cowboys	39.72%	39.72%	18.18%	7.37%	1.99%
New York Giants	33.30%	30.11%	14.00%	5.61%	1.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	29.69%	18.40%	6.83%	2.50%	1.33%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.87%	17.85%	6.32%	2.34%	1.24%
New York Jets	18.39%	8.71%	3.04%	1.15%	0.56%
Minnesota Vikings	36.92%	22.62%	6.77%	2.36%	0.52%
St. Louis Rams	20.33%	12.35%	5.08%	1.87%	0.44%
Washington Redskins	27.80%	18.22%	6.40%	1.96%	0.38%
Atlanta Falcons	28.00%	17.00%	5.62%	1.75%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	12.61%	6.79%	2.35%	0.85%	0.21%
Buffalo Bills	7.94%	3.66%	1.19%	0.42%	0.20%
Miami Dolphins	13.86%	5.27%	1.30%	0.36%	0.17%
Arizona Cardinals	6.31%	2.89%	0.90%	0.24%	0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.81%	3.24%	0.86%	0.20%	0.04%
Tennessee Titans	1.81%	0.62%	0.19%	0.04%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	6.84%	3.02%	0.83%	0.18%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	2.80%	0.81%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	3.18%	0.78%	0.11%	0.02%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.71%	0.11%	0.01%	—	—
Houston Texans	1.94%	0.49%	0.09%	0.02%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.54%	1.91%	0.31%	3.56%	0.25%	2.74%	2.97%	2.50%	1.16%	2.69%	1.30%	0.06%	3.94%	2.21%	0.17%
Buffalo Bills	0.29%		0.29%	0.06%	0.42%	0.02%	0.28%	0.36%	0.24%	0.06%	0.37%	0.07%	0.02%	0.31%	0.17%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.64%	0.33%		0.16%	1.24%	0.18%	1.28%	1.05%	0.94%	0.65%	1.10%	0.65%	0.04%	1.37%	0.65%	0.12%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.08%	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	0.08%	0.04%		0.04%	0.05%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.63%	0.56%	1.28%	0.28%		0.13%	2.05%	1.69%	0.61%	1.09%	2.73%	1.05%	0.05%	2.36%	1.22%	0.12%
Houston Texans	0.01%		0.03%		0.06%		0.03%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%		0.07%	0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	2.16%	0.57%	2.09%	0.30%	3.59%	0.25%		3.74%	2.96%	1.28%	1.69%	1.93%	0.09%	2.83%	1.67%	0.20%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.35%	0.42%	1.18%	0.23%	1.79%	0.05%	2.64%		1.17%	0.76%	2.35%	0.90%	0.04%	2.16%	0.89%	0.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.91%	0.41%	0.92%	0.23%	0.58%	0.05%	1.92%	0.97%		0.77%	1.93%	0.67%		1.76%	0.79%	0.11%
Miami Dolphins	0.25%	0.07%	0.45%	0.09%	0.50%	0.01%	0.48%	0.38%	0.39%		0.43%	0.14%	0.04%	0.42%	0.18%	0.01%
New England Patriots	2.07%	0.81%	2.47%	0.34%	5.28%	0.15%	2.43%	3.52%	3.60%	1.48%		2.21%	0.11%	3.54%	2.18%	0.24%
New York Jets	0.51%	0.08%	0.61%	0.04%	1.09%	0.01%	0.77%	0.62%	0.46%	0.16%	0.75%		0.01%	0.88%	0.32%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders			0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%				0.02%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.98%	0.45%	1.92%	0.28%	2.78%	0.23%	2.01%	2.37%	1.97%	1.15%	2.12%	1.39%	0.14%		1.35%	0.09%
San Diego Chargers	2.62%	0.72%	2.25%	0.33%	3.93%	0.23%	2.83%	2.89%	2.73%	1.40%	3.08%	1.61%	0.03%	3.00%		0.16%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%		0.04%		0.05%		0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%		0.04%		0.12%	0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.20%	0.19%	0.13%	0.24%	0.03%	0.08%	0.34%	0.11%	0.27%	0.11%		0.17%	0.08%	0.10%	0.31%
Atlanta Falcons	0.21%		1.12%	0.43%	1.19%	0.14%	0.47%	1.61%	0.47%	1.00%	0.68%	0.13%	0.97%	0.51%	0.22%	1.32%
Carolina Panthers	0.34%	2.08%		0.88%	2.63%	0.27%	1.02%	3.69%	1.58%	2.35%	1.71%	0.44%	1.76%	1.40%	0.68%	2.45%
Chicago Bears	0.73%	1.95%	2.09%		1.85%	0.32%	1.05%	3.24%	1.65%	2.21%	1.69%	0.68%	2.45%	1.62%	0.63%	1.89%
Dallas Cowboys	0.32%	2.18%	2.42%	0.79%		0.27%	0.63%	2.12%	1.32%	2.32%	1.42%	0.42%	2.22%	1.21%	0.66%	2.16%
Detroit Lions		0.07%	0.06%	0.06%	0.05%		0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.08%	0.05%	0.02%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	0.09%	0.48%	0.71%	0.20%	0.49%	0.03%		0.14%	0.27%	0.42%	0.25%	0.13%	1.01%	0.26%	0.16%	0.34%
Minnesota Vikings	0.29%	1.48%	1.52%	0.85%	1.14%	0.02%	0.18%		0.82%	1.04%	0.60%	0.40%	2.03%	0.73%	0.49%	0.91%
New Orleans Saints	0.15%	1.14%	2.05%	0.85%	2.06%	0.13%	0.60%	1.99%		1.62%	1.11%	0.26%	1.54%	0.80%	0.26%	1.58%
New York Giants	0.34%	1.83%	1.93%	0.74%	1.83%	0.16%	0.55%	1.72%	1.40%		0.90%	0.35%	1.84%	0.72%	0.39%	1.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.31%	1.84%	2.04%	0.90%	1.90%	0.13%	0.42%	1.63%	1.31%	1.27%		0.37%	2.26%	0.91%	0.61%	1.08%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.28%	0.16%	0.19%	0.33%	0.02%	0.16%	0.39%	0.18%	0.14%	0.12%		0.19%	0.05%	0.08%	0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.68%	1.96%	1.91%	1.12%	2.72%	0.45%	1.65%	5.09%	1.72%	2.64%	1.91%	0.73%		1.80%	0.46%	2.66%
St. Louis Rams	0.15%	0.80%	0.95%	0.40%	0.90%	0.05%	0.32%	1.19%	0.62%	0.87%	0.42%	0.10%	1.39%		0.25%	1.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.10%	0.20%	0.09%	0.31%	0.04%	0.11%	0.38%	0.14%	0.25%	0.12%	0.06%	0.28%	0.09%		0.26%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	1.14%	1.31%	0.48%	1.06%	0.09%	0.38%	0.87%	0.81%	0.72%	0.51%	0.21%	1.19%	0.63%	0.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.24%	0.98%	0.02%	2.26%	0.04%	5.20%	1.76%	1.06%	0.41%	4.31%	0.67%	0.01%	2.20%	4.09%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%		0.04%		0.17%		0.34%	0.07%	0.02%		0.15%			0.14%	0.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.35%	0.06%		0.01%	0.59%	0.03%	1.32%	0.57%	0.26%	0.15%	1.14%	0.20%	0.01%	0.58%	1.03%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%				0.03%		0.03%		0.01%		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.88%	0.23%	0.61%	0.06%		0.03%	2.30%	0.91%	0.57%	0.39%	2.03%	0.28%		1.51%	2.21%	0.02%
Houston Texans	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%		0.02%	0.01%						0.01%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	3.75%	0.52%	2.24%	0.12%	3.16%	0.03%		2.58%	2.10%	0.84%	6.12%	1.26%	0.03%	4.68%	4.57%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.98%	0.17%	0.67%	0.04%	0.96%	0.02%	1.63%		0.55%	0.19%	1.97%	0.32%		1.18%	1.87%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.57%	0.06%	0.38%	0.02%	0.50%	0.03%	1.41%	0.43%		0.13%	1.15%	0.13%		0.67%	1.34%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%		0.09%	0.01%	0.14%		0.25%	0.12%	0.09%		0.07%			0.16%	0.22%
New England Patriots	3.96%	0.20%	2.35%	0.13%	2.99%	0.07%	7.95%	3.31%	1.83%	0.24%		0.58%	0.01%	4.51%	5.21%	0.06%
New York Jets	0.22%	0.03%	0.12%		0.23%	0.02%	0.77%	0.24%	0.17%	0.01%	0.34%			0.41%	0.47%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders											0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.28%	0.24%	0.82%	0.02%	1.75%	0.05%	3.80%	1.67%	1.08%	0.41%	2.96%	0.57%	0.03%		2.90%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	5.74%	0.72%	3.18%	0.24%	6.62%	0.08%	9.14%	4.54%	3.83%	1.20%	8.54%	1.66%	0.01%	6.30%		0.14%
Tennessee Titans	0.03%		0.04%		0.01%		0.03%				0.02%			0.01%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.07%	0.12%	0.18%	0.05%		0.02%	0.07%	0.02%	0.07%	0.09%		0.14%	0.01%		0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	0.04%		0.43%	0.87%	0.75%	0.02%	0.08%	0.40%	0.16%	0.47%	0.25%	0.06%	1.36%	0.27%	0.02%	0.44%
Carolina Panthers	0.23%	0.78%		3.43%	3.04%	0.04%	0.37%	1.46%	0.66%	2.27%	1.35%	0.27%	4.35%	0.68%	0.13%	1.38%
Chicago Bears	0.84%	3.68%	7.95%		7.00%	0.23%	1.83%	6.37%	4.48%	5.25%	4.37%	0.86%	10.84%	2.73%	0.83%	3.65%
Dallas Cowboys	0.16%	1.10%	2.75%	3.02%		0.05%	0.40%	1.21%	1.15%	1.24%	0.90%	0.21%	4.16%	0.71%	0.22%	0.90%
Detroit Lions			0.02%	0.03%	0.03%			0.02%		0.02%	0.02%		0.03%	0.01%		0.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.07%	0.27%	0.63%	0.31%			0.13%	0.05%	0.15%	0.10%	0.02%	0.40%	0.02%	0.04%	0.15%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.50%	0.82%	1.39%	0.82%		0.13%		0.38%	0.47%	0.33%	0.06%	1.15%	0.21%	0.05%	0.42%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.35%	0.87%	2.14%	1.55%	0.01%	0.17%	1.06%		0.95%	0.65%	0.12%	2.61%	0.38%	0.06%	0.74%
New York Giants	0.12%	1.01%	1.74%	2.12%	1.34%	0.03%	0.33%	1.04%	0.90%		0.74%	0.15%	3.21%	0.50%	0.15%	0.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.87%	1.81%	2.83%	0.93%	0.03%	0.20%	1.01%	0.78%	0.77%		0.14%	3.48%	0.55%	0.20%	0.45%
San Francisco 49ers		0.06%	0.12%	0.16%	0.12%			0.04%	0.05%	0.09%	0.03%		0.09%			0.07%
Seattle Seahawks	0.25%	2.25%	4.62%	4.80%	4.29%	0.14%	0.65%	2.17%	2.27%	3.14%	2.62%	0.20%		0.99%	0.57%	2.62%
St. Louis Rams		0.30%	0.69%	1.02%	0.65%	0.04%	0.08%	0.29%	0.18%	0.64%	0.33%	0.02%	0.56%		0.04%	0.24%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%		0.08%	0.09%	0.13%	0.01%		0.08%	0.02%	0.10%	0.06%		0.18%	0.03%		0.06%
Washington Redskins	0.11%	0.34%	0.80%	1.06%	0.53%	0.01%	0.18%	0.50%	0.39%	0.48%	0.22%	0.08%	1.45%	0.18%	0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.10%	0.24%		0.97%		2.65%	0.80%	0.53%	0.12%	2.62%	0.26%		0.88%	3.46%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%		0.01%		0.07%		0.06%	0.03%	0.02%		0.08%	0.01%		0.03%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.15%	0.03%			0.23%		0.36%	0.20%	0.13%	0.03%	0.37%	0.07%		0.14%	0.63%
Cleveland Browns			0.01%					0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.58%	0.05%	0.22%			0.01%	0.85%	0.41%	0.13%	0.05%	0.89%	0.15%		0.54%	0.71%	0.01%
Houston Texans							0.01%				0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.64%	0.13%	0.64%	0.01%	1.42%			0.65%	0.73%	0.14%	2.90%	0.27%		1.84%	4.55%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.41%	0.05%	0.13%		0.43%		0.49%		0.17%	0.04%	0.60%	0.01%		0.35%	1.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.34%	0.04%	0.07%		0.07%	0.01%	0.55%	0.16%			0.52%	0.06%		0.24%	0.43%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.04%		0.01%		0.05%		0.06%		0.01%		0.03%	0.01%		0.04%	0.11%
New England Patriots	2.07%	0.04%	0.71%	0.04%	1.31%	0.01%	3.14%	1.15%	0.82%	0.10%		0.14%		1.87%	4.83%	0.01%
New York Jets	0.12%		0.06%		0.10%		0.17%	0.08%	0.02%		0.09%			0.13%	0.37%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.49%	0.07%	0.18%		0.66%	0.01%	1.31%	0.56%	0.43%	0.05%	1.29%	0.19%			2.00%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	4.73%	0.26%	1.70%	0.04%	2.12%	0.03%	7.47%	2.80%	1.33%	0.41%	7.76%	0.72%	0.01%	4.32%		0.05%
Tennessee Titans							0.01%		0.01%					0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%			0.03%	0.02%		0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.04%		0.05%	0.62%	0.15%		0.03%	0.09%	0.02%	0.13%	0.11%	0.01%	0.34%	0.08%	0.01%	0.07%
Carolina Panthers	0.10%	0.25%		2.80%	0.84%	0.01%	0.14%	0.42%	0.32%	0.59%	0.52%	0.08%	1.51%	0.32%	0.02%	0.41%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	1.90%	6.60%		5.84%	0.04%	0.51%	1.45%	3.24%	4.72%	4.07%	0.37%	9.83%	1.56%	0.35%	2.10%
Dallas Cowboys	0.03%	0.19%	0.85%	2.55%		0.01%	0.17%	0.42%	0.39%	0.31%	0.37%	0.03%	1.55%	0.17%	0.04%	0.29%
Detroit Lions			0.01%	0.01%									0.02%
Green Bay Packers		0.05%	0.11%	0.15%	0.12%			0.02%	0.04%	0.09%	0.04%	0.01%	0.13%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.12%	0.36%	0.30%	0.37%		0.03%		0.11%	0.28%	0.13%	0.02%	0.49%	0.03%		0.11%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.12%	0.34%	1.92%	0.64%	0.01%	0.03%	0.26%		0.40%	0.44%	0.02%	1.13%	0.21%	0.03%	0.23%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.29%	0.62%	1.70%	0.33%	0.05%	0.12%	0.34%	0.37%		0.24%	0.02%	1.02%	0.25%	0.05%	0.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.26%	0.77%	2.29%	0.53%	0.01%	0.10%	0.43%	0.38%	0.33%		0.06%	1.11%	0.26%	0.04%	0.23%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%			0.02%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%	0.49%	1.76%	4.58%	1.59%	0.03%	0.25%	0.83%	0.81%	1.26%	1.10%	0.02%		0.25%	0.06%	0.67%
St. Louis Rams	0.01%	0.07%	0.25%	0.42%	0.19%		0.05%	0.06%	0.11%	0.17%	0.17%		0.23%		0.03%	0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%		0.01%	0.05%	0.03%		0.01%			0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.02%	0.11%	0.33%	0.54%	0.14%		0.06%	0.05%	0.11%	0.09%	0.07%	0.01%	0.41%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals														0.02%					0.02%					0.01%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons			0.04%				0.02%			0.01%				0.08%	0.04%	0.02%			0.07%			0.01%			0.08%
Baltimore Ravens	0.04%	0.19%			0.62%	3.38%			0.67%		0.02%	0.12%						0.33%		0.47%	0.54%		0.55%			0.02%	1.25%	0.17%	0.02%		0.17%
Buffalo Bills					0.04%	0.06%			0.02%											0.03%							0.03%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers			0.34%	0.04%			0.09%			0.20%				0.38%	0.11%	0.05%	0.03%		0.37%			0.04%		0.25%	0.75%
Chicago Bears			2.10%	0.09%			0.55%			1.19%			0.01%	3.34%	0.83%	0.58%	0.07%		2.82%			0.27%		1.66%	5.26%					0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%			0.15%	0.40%			0.09%			0.01%						0.02%		0.04%	0.11%		0.14%			0.01%	0.18%	0.05%	0.01%		0.02%
Cleveland Browns					0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.28%	0.02%			0.09%			0.14%			0.01%	0.27%	0.08%	0.05%			0.35%			0.04%		0.11%	0.55%
Denver Broncos	0.01%	0.08%			0.22%	0.91%			0.15%			0.02%						0.05%		0.15%	0.15%		0.12%			0.01%	0.35%	0.07%	0.01%		0.02%
Detroit Lions																								0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.03%											0.04%			0.01%		0.08%			0.01%			0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.21%			0.83%	3.11%			0.86%			0.03%						0.30%		0.50%	0.57%		0.48%			0.02%	1.45%	0.26%	0.02%		0.21%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.06%			0.30%	0.65%			0.21%			0.02%						0.07%		0.08%	0.16%		0.16%				0.37%	0.02%	0.01%		0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.04%			0.11%	0.41%			0.08%			0.01%						0.03%		0.19%	0.09%		0.08%				0.20%	0.04%			0.05%
Miami Dolphins					0.01%	0.05%			0.01%												0.02%						0.07%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.10%	0.01%			0.01%			0.02%				0.08%	0.01%	0.01%			0.08%					0.03%	0.17%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.20%			1.01%	3.91%			0.95%			0.10%						0.23%		0.77%	0.57%		0.86%			0.01%	1.59%	0.20%	0.01%		0.29%
New Orleans Saints			0.17%				0.04%			0.09%				0.42%	0.12%	0.09%	0.01%		0.31%			0.05%		0.25%	0.50%					0.01%
New York Giants			0.17%	0.01%			0.07%			0.14%				0.26%	0.07%	0.08%	0.03%		0.17%			0.04%		0.13%	0.40%
New York Jets		0.02%			0.05%	0.22%			0.03%			0.01%						0.02%		0.03%	0.01%		0.01%			0.01%	0.10%	0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.32%	0.04%			0.05%			0.28%				0.56%	0.08%	0.07%			0.37%			0.05%		0.21%	0.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%	0.07%			0.37%	1.69%			0.20%			0.06%						0.08%		0.25%	0.22%		0.27%			0.02%	0.74%	0.07%			0.15%
San Diego Chargers	0.08%	0.50%			1.96%	9.29%			2.11%		0.01%	0.25%						0.71%		1.23%	1.59%		1.52%			0.07%	3.52%	0.47%	0.08%		0.65%
San Francisco 49ers														0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.44%	0.01%			0.14%	0.01%		0.19%				0.53%	0.18%	0.20%	0.04%		0.72%			0.05%		0.31%	1.08%
St. Louis Rams			0.07%				0.03%							0.06%	0.01%	0.02%			0.04%			0.03%		0.05%	0.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers										0.01%				0.01%										0.01%	0.01%
Tennessee Titans												0.01%									0.01%
Washington Redskins			0.03%				0.01%			0.01%				0.03%	0.04%				0.13%					0.02%	0.11%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	68.62%	42.06%	28.90%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	100.00%	69.06%	45.13%	18.49%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	60.47%	28.22%	17.96%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	72.64%	29.15%	13.66%	8.61%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Indianapolis Colts	63.81%	25.30%	10.47%	6.12%	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	100.00%	48.52%	19.21%	5.71%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	63.42%	34.27%	15.31%	5.36%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	55.96%	21.10%	8.95%	2.49%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	36.19%	9.97%	3.67%	2.13%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	44.04%	16.03%	6.25%	1.78%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	36.58%	11.02%	5.15%	1.57%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	27.36%	6.49%	1.92%	0.88%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts		63.81%
Kansas City Chiefs	36.19%
New England Patriots				72.64%
New York Jets			27.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys				44.04%
New York Giants			36.58%
Philadelphia Eagles		63.42%
Seattle Seahawks	55.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens		38.51%		14.45%	7.51%
Indianapolis Colts	25.30%
Kansas City Chiefs						9.97%
New England Patriots	11.81%					17.34%
New York Jets	2.42%					4.07%
San Diego Chargers			26.22%	29.04%	13.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears		19.52%		25.56%		23.98%
Dallas Cowboys	8.71%		7.32%
New Orleans Saints		8.49%			29.15%	10.88%
New York Giants	11.02%
Philadelphia Eagles			34.27%
Seattle Seahawks	11.21%		9.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens			3.97%	5.68%	1.73%	16.84%
Indianapolis Colts				3.47%	1.03%	5.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.11%			1.13%	0.43%
New England Patriots	4.82%	3.37%	2.10%			3.37%
New York Jets	0.75%	0.56%	0.23%			0.38%
San Diego Chargers	24.57%	10.90%		5.21%	1.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears		3.52%	22.67%		14.39%	4.55%
Dallas Cowboys	1.67%		1.56%	1.09%	1.93%
New Orleans Saints	11.10%	2.32%		3.10%		2.69%
New York Giants		1.04%	2.74%			1.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.87%	2.90%				3.54%
Seattle Seahawks	2.29%		2.34%	1.68%	2.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Ravens		7.51%	1.13%				3.59%	0.97%		2.81%		1.95%
Chicago Bears	5.49%			2.19%	0.79%	2.57%			0.50%		6.95%
Dallas Cowboys	0.50%			0.25%	0.08%	0.31%			0.09%		0.55%
Indianapolis Colts		2.38%	0.50%				1.33%	0.39%		0.89%		0.63%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.83%	0.18%				0.41%	0.16%		0.30%		0.25%
New England Patriots		3.63%	0.60%				1.84%	0.49%		1.26%		0.79%
New Orleans Saints	1.69%			0.70%	0.25%	0.70%			0.15%		2.22%
New York Giants	0.34%			0.22%	0.05%	0.25%			0.06%		0.65%
New York Jets		0.40%	0.06%				0.14%	0.04%		0.18%		0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.47%			0.64%	0.24%	0.88%			0.21%		1.92%
San Diego Chargers		11.89%	2.00%				6.19%	1.53%		4.51%		2.78%
Seattle Seahawks	0.77%			0.35%	0.13%	0.34%			0.03%		0.87%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

San Diego Chargers 28.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.32%

Win Prob

62.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

58.42%

Win Prob

59.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

41.14%

Win Prob

63.11%

Chicago Bears 18.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

37.01%

Win Prob

69.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

50.23%

Win Prob

67.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

37.59%

Win Prob

36.89%

Baltimore Ravens 17.96% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

63.68%

Win Prob

60.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

59.67%

Win Prob

40.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

41.82%

Win Prob

57.77%

New England Patriots 8.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.64%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

59.49%

Win Prob

37.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

35.29%

Win Prob

45.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

42.16%

Win Prob

58.55%

Indianapolis Colts 6.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

57.02%

Win Prob

35.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

38.89%

Win Prob

52.08%

New Orleans Saints 5.71% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

60.08%

Win Prob

45.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

57.78%

Win Prob

32.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

38.88%

Win Prob

26.40%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.42%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

57.94%

Win Prob

38.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.82%

Win Prob

29.86%

Seattle Seahawks 2.49% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.13%

Win Prob

31.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

29.50%

Win Prob

42.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

34.94%

Win Prob

23.84%

Kansas City Chiefs 2.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

57.49%

Win Prob

34.70%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

38.97%

Win Prob

51.23%

Dallas Cowboys 1.78% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

54.34%

Win Prob

30.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

30.88%

Win Prob

39.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

30.90%

Win Prob

21.57%

New York Giants 1.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.58%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

53.20%

Win Prob

46.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

41.40%

Win Prob

29.82%

New York Jets 0.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.36%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

62.71%

Win Prob

23.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.06%

Win Prob

30.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

45.45%

Win Prob

44.44%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2006-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-27	1440.10	1388.75	60.46%	39.29%	+16.15	1-0
2006-09-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-21	1456.25	1619.64	25.35%	74.40%	-13.07	1-1
2006-09-24	St. Louis Rams	L 14-16	1443.18	1443.83	53.14%	46.61%	-11.67	1-2
2006-10-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-32	1431.51	1497.83	37.25%	62.49%	-27.15	1-3
2006-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1404.36	1543.87	33.77%	65.98%	-9.09	1-4
2006-10-16	Chicago Bears	L 23-24	1395.27	1656.93	20.15%	79.59%	-3.14	1-5
2006-10-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-22	1392.13	1328.80	55.59%	44.15%	-31.12	1-6
2006-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1361.01	1408.32	39.84%	59.90%	-25.52	1-7
2006-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1335.49	1533.39	26.70%	73.04%	-17.12	1-8
2006-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1318.37	1366.64	46.30%	53.45%	+21.96	2-8
2006-11-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 26-31	1340.33	1466.58	29.60%	70.15%	-10.29	2-9
2006-12-03	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-20	1330.04	1422.77	33.77%	65.97%	+38.32	3-9
2006-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1368.36	1572.16	26.04%	73.70%	+28.02	4-9
2006-12-17	Denver Broncos	L 20-37	1396.38	1564.20	30.23%	69.52%	-19.37	4-10
2006-12-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-20	1377.01	1389.13	44.78%	54.96%	+20.90	5-10
2006-12-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-27	1397.91	1750.21	10.27%	89.48%	-1.41	5-11
2006-09-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-6	1480.64	1594.52	31.10%	68.64%	+39.86	1-0
2006-09-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-3	1520.50	1467.11	60.74%	39.01%	+20.10	2-0
2006-09-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-23	1540.60	1434.00	61.62%	38.13%	-42.77	2-1
2006-10-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 32-10	1497.83	1431.51	62.49%	37.25%	+27.15	3-1
2006-10-15	New York Giants	L 14-27	1524.98	1542.92	50.65%	49.09%	-28.36	3-2
2006-10-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-38	1496.62	1638.29	33.49%	66.25%	+17.81	4-2
2006-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-27	1514.43	1562.18	39.78%	59.96%	+13.16	5-2
2006-11-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-30	1527.59	1343.35	71.47%	28.27%	-44.38	5-3
2006-11-12	Cleveland Browns	L 13-17	1483.21	1408.87	63.57%	36.18%	-19.73	5-4
2006-11-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1463.48	1588.47	29.75%	69.99%	-17.31	5-5
2006-11-26	New Orleans Saints	L 13-31	1446.17	1453.86	52.13%	47.61%	-34.34	5-6
2006-12-03	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1411.83	1464.20	39.15%	60.60%	+29.75	6-6
2006-12-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-6	1441.58	1365.64	57.38%	42.37%	+21.83	7-6
2006-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-38	1463.41	1558.34	39.72%	60.02%	-19.52	7-7
2006-12-24	Carolina Panthers	L 3-10	1443.89	1458.34	51.16%	48.59%	-21.02	7-8
2006-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1422.87	1559.83	28.33%	71.41%	-11.65	7-9
2006-09-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-0	1487.65	1512.96	42.91%	56.83%	+45.85	1-0
2006-09-17	Oakland Raiders	W 28-6	1533.50	1398.99	71.13%	28.62%	+20.87	2-0
2006-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 15-14	1554.37	1409.48	66.66%	33.08%	+5.14	3-0
2006-10-01	San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1559.51	1628.53	43.34%	56.40%	+15.16	4-0
2006-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-13	1574.67	1595.51	43.54%	56.20%	-21.39	4-1
2006-10-15	Carolina Panthers	L 21-23	1553.28	1571.96	50.55%	49.20%	-11.10	4-2
2006-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-22	1542.18	1493.20	53.55%	46.20%	+25.87	5-2
2006-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-20	1568.05	1549.01	55.94%	43.80%	+16.67	6-2
2006-11-12	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-26	1584.72	1363.36	75.60%	24.14%	+3.75	7-2
2006-11-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1588.47	1463.48	69.99%	29.75%	+17.31	8-2
2006-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-0	1605.78	1588.50	55.69%	44.05%	+35.55	9-2
2006-11-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-13	1641.33	1575.92	55.89%	43.85%	-21.25	9-3
2006-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1620.08	1572.80	53.31%	46.44%	+22.81	10-3
2006-12-17	Cleveland Browns	W 27-17	1642.89	1390.39	82.85%	16.89%	+8.31	11-3
2006-12-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-7	1651.20	1622.87	50.58%	49.16%	+37.40	12-3
2006-12-31	Buffalo Bills	W 19-7	1688.60	1529.52	73.93%	25.82%	+13.91	13-3
2006-09-10	@ New England Patriots	L 17-19	1458.06	1569.31	31.43%	68.31%	-6.91	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 16-6	1451.15	1488.53	41.22%	58.52%	+28.73	1-1
2006-09-24	New York Jets	L 20-28	1479.88	1451.84	57.22%	42.53%	-25.12	1-2
2006-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-12	1454.76	1531.57	42.25%	57.50%	+19.96	2-2
2006-10-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-40	1474.72	1633.87	25.81%	73.93%	-23.05	2-3
2006-10-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1451.67	1340.75	62.20%	37.54%	-16.73	2-4
2006-10-22	New England Patriots	L 6-28	1434.94	1622.64	27.87%	71.88%	-20.32	2-5
2006-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1414.62	1433.84	50.47%	49.27%	+28.63	3-5
2006-11-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-17	1443.25	1699.19	16.62%	83.13%	-2.58	3-6
2006-11-19	@ Houston Texans	W 24-21	1440.67	1384.34	54.60%	45.15%	+12.14	4-6
2006-11-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-24	1452.81	1579.82	35.40%	64.35%	+17.30	5-6
2006-12-03	San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1470.11	1700.65	23.19%	76.55%	-6.24	5-7
2006-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 31-13	1463.87	1501.81	41.14%	58.60%	+38.60	6-7
2006-12-17	Miami Dolphins	W 21-0	1502.47	1533.91	48.71%	51.03%	+36.31	7-7
2006-12-24	Tennessee Titans	L 29-30	1538.78	1493.12	59.67%	40.07%	-9.26	7-8
2006-12-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-19	1529.52	1688.60	25.82%	73.93%	-13.91	7-9
2006-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-20	1594.52	1480.64	68.64%	31.10%	-39.87	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1554.65	1531.41	49.85%	49.89%	-13.41	0-2
2006-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-24	1541.24	1447.01	59.92%	39.82%	+8.75	1-2
2006-10-01	New Orleans Saints	W 21-18	1549.99	1476.78	63.42%	36.33%	+9.78	2-2
2006-10-08	Cleveland Browns	W 20-12	1559.77	1417.64	72.01%	27.73%	+12.19	3-2
2006-10-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-21	1571.96	1553.28	49.20%	50.55%	+11.10	4-2
2006-10-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1583.06	1548.33	51.51%	48.24%	-13.85	4-3
2006-10-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-35	1569.21	1504.16	62.32%	37.42%	-44.33	4-4
2006-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1524.88	1403.12	69.60%	30.14%	+17.53	5-4
2006-11-19	St. Louis Rams	W 15-0	1542.41	1428.60	68.63%	31.11%	+18.73	6-4
2006-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-17	1561.14	1444.66	62.95%	36.79%	-19.54	6-5
2006-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1541.60	1459.36	58.26%	41.49%	-15.67	6-6
2006-12-10	New York Giants	L 13-27	1525.93	1522.61	53.71%	46.04%	-31.20	6-7
2006-12-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-37	1494.73	1586.48	40.16%	59.58%	-36.39	6-8
2006-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 10-3	1458.34	1443.89	48.59%	51.16%	+21.02	7-8
2006-12-31	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-21	1479.36	1576.38	33.22%	66.52%	+32.65	8-8
2006-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-0	1514.47	1453.48	55.26%	44.48%	+35.24	1-0
2006-09-17	Detroit Lions	W 34-7	1549.71	1411.07	71.61%	28.13%	+22.72	2-0
2006-09-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-16	1572.43	1544.82	50.48%	49.26%	+13.26	3-0
2006-10-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-6	1585.69	1650.07	44.00%	55.74%	+48.18	4-0
2006-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 40-7	1633.87	1474.72	73.93%	25.81%	+23.06	5-0
2006-10-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-23	1656.93	1395.27	79.59%	20.15%	+3.13	6-0
2006-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-10	1660.06	1355.99	86.62%	13.12%	+11.37	7-0
2006-11-05	Miami Dolphins	L 13-31	1671.43	1399.95	84.33%	15.41%	-55.54	7-1
2006-11-12	@ New York Giants	W 38-20	1615.89	1620.01	45.92%	53.82%	+35.45	8-1
2006-11-19	@ New York Jets	W 10-0	1651.34	1458.28	72.49%	27.25%	+13.40	9-1
2006-11-26	@ New England Patriots	L 13-17	1664.74	1656.20	47.74%	52.01%	-14.83	9-2
2006-12-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-13	1649.91	1476.87	75.44%	24.31%	+11.95	10-2
2006-12-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 42-27	1661.86	1384.45	81.01%	18.73%	+11.29	11-2
2006-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-31	1673.15	1343.81	88.19%	11.55%	+3.11	12-2
2006-12-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 26-21	1676.26	1287.43	88.92%	10.82%	+1.26	13-2
2006-12-31	Green Bay Packers	L 7-26	1677.52	1413.64	83.75%	15.99%	-18.89	13-3
2006-09-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-10	1524.77	1560.74	41.42%	58.33%	+32.65	1-0
2006-09-17	Cleveland Browns	W 34-17	1557.42	1428.22	70.50%	29.25%	+18.74	2-0
2006-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-20	1576.16	1651.65	36.03%	63.72%	+27.98	3-0
2006-10-01	New England Patriots	L 13-38	1604.14	1563.95	58.92%	40.83%	-45.73	3-1
2006-10-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-14	1558.41	1426.84	64.95%	34.80%	-10.08	3-2
2006-10-22	Carolina Panthers	W 17-14	1548.33	1583.06	48.24%	51.51%	+13.85	4-2
2006-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-29	1562.18	1514.43	59.96%	39.78%	-13.17	4-3
2006-11-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-26	1549.01	1568.05	43.80%	55.94%	-16.66	4-4
2006-11-12	San Diego Chargers	L 41-49	1532.35	1658.25	35.54%	64.20%	-15.63	4-5
2006-11-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-16	1516.72	1482.96	51.37%	48.38%	+29.10	5-5
2006-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-0	1545.82	1418.52	64.39%	35.36%	+30.10	6-5
2006-11-30	Baltimore Ravens	W 13-7	1575.92	1641.33	43.85%	55.89%	+21.26	7-5
2006-12-10	Oakland Raiders	W 27-10	1597.18	1333.08	83.77%	15.98%	+10.24	8-5
2006-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-34	1607.42	1622.41	44.37%	55.37%	-29.24	8-6
2006-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1578.18	1583.57	45.74%	54.00%	-7.11	8-7
2006-12-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1571.07	1585.47	51.17%	48.58%	-19.46	8-8
2006-09-10	New Orleans Saints	L 14-19	1449.58	1390.39	61.53%	38.21%	-21.36	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-34	1428.22	1557.42	29.25%	70.50%	-18.74	0-2
2006-09-24	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-15	1409.48	1554.37	33.08%	66.66%	-5.15	0-3
2006-10-01	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1404.33	1378.12	50.28%	49.46%	+13.31	1-3
2006-10-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 12-20	1417.64	1559.77	27.73%	72.01%	-12.19	1-4
2006-10-22	Denver Broncos	L 7-17	1405.45	1624.15	24.43%	75.32%	-12.02	1-5
2006-10-29	New York Jets	W 20-13	1393.43	1459.86	43.71%	56.03%	+23.02	2-5
2006-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 25-32	1416.45	1650.67	18.42%	81.32%	-7.58	2-6
2006-11-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1408.87	1483.21	36.18%	63.57%	+19.74	3-6
2006-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1428.61	1578.41	32.46%	67.29%	-10.09	3-7
2006-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-30	1418.52	1545.82	35.36%	64.39%	-30.10	3-8
2006-12-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-28	1388.42	1592.63	26.00%	73.75%	+19.83	4-8
2006-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-27	1408.25	1568.63	25.67%	74.07%	-17.86	4-9
2006-12-17	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-27	1390.39	1642.89	16.89%	82.85%	-8.31	4-10
2006-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-22	1382.08	1340.70	59.08%	40.66%	-35.52	4-11
2006-12-31	@ Houston Texans	L 6-14	1346.56	1367.50	43.53%	56.21%	-19.13	4-12
2006-09-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-24	1490.00	1534.33	40.25%	59.49%	-16.55	0-1
2006-09-17	Washington Redskins	W 27-10	1473.45	1545.65	42.89%	56.85%	+36.39	1-1
2006-10-01	@ Tennessee Titans	W 45-14	1509.84	1378.20	64.95%	34.79%	+30.10	2-1
2006-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-38	1539.94	1507.77	51.14%	48.61%	-29.71	2-2
2006-10-15	Houston Texans	W 34-6	1510.23	1354.70	73.53%	26.21%	+21.57	3-2
2006-10-23	New York Giants	L 22-36	1531.80	1571.29	47.56%	52.19%	-27.64	3-3
2006-10-29	@ Carolina Panthers	W 35-14	1504.16	1569.21	37.42%	62.32%	+44.34	4-3
2006-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 19-22	1548.50	1481.12	56.17%	43.58%	-15.11	4-4
2006-11-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-10	1533.39	1335.49	73.04%	26.70%	+17.12	5-4
2006-11-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-14	1550.51	1701.78	32.27%	67.47%	+27.71	6-4
2006-11-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-10	1578.22	1400.96	75.88%	23.86%	+19.64	7-4
2006-12-03	@ New York Giants	W 23-20	1597.86	1534.49	55.60%	44.14%	+11.88	8-4
2006-12-10	New Orleans Saints	L 17-42	1609.74	1515.06	66.22%	33.52%	-51.40	8-5
2006-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-28	1558.34	1463.41	60.02%	39.72%	+19.51	9-5
2006-12-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1577.85	1521.90	61.09%	38.66%	-37.93	9-6
2006-12-31	Detroit Lions	L 31-39	1539.92	1286.17	82.95%	16.79%	-36.42	9-7
2006-09-10	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-18	1585.61	1439.18	66.86%	32.88%	-29.35	0-1
2006-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 9-6	1556.26	1528.09	57.23%	42.51%	+11.43	1-1
2006-09-24	@ New England Patriots	W 17-7	1567.69	1591.77	43.09%	56.66%	+27.82	2-1
2006-10-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 13-3	1595.51	1574.67	56.20%	43.54%	+21.39	3-1
2006-10-15	Oakland Raiders	W 13-3	1616.90	1336.04	85.02%	14.72%	+7.25	4-1
2006-10-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 17-7	1624.15	1405.45	75.32%	24.43%	+12.01	5-1
2006-10-29	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-34	1636.16	1664.22	49.20%	50.55%	-13.24	5-2
2006-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-20	1622.92	1587.82	51.56%	48.19%	+24.82	6-2
2006-11-12	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-13	1647.74	1376.11	80.50%	19.24%	+5.99	7-2
2006-11-19	San Diego Chargers	L 27-35	1653.73	1673.87	50.34%	49.41%	-22.11	7-3
2006-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-19	1631.62	1566.62	55.83%	43.91%	-26.00	7-4
2006-12-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1605.62	1555.97	60.22%	39.52%	-16.20	7-5
2006-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-48	1589.42	1706.90	30.66%	69.08%	-25.22	7-6
2006-12-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 37-20	1564.20	1396.38	69.52%	30.23%	+19.37	8-6
2006-12-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-23	1583.57	1578.18	54.00%	45.74%	+7.11	9-6
2006-12-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1590.68	1368.23	80.28%	19.46%	-21.59	9-7
2006-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-9	1418.38	1612.32	27.15%	72.59%	-7.31	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1411.07	1549.71	28.13%	71.61%	-22.73	0-2
2006-09-24	Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1388.34	1396.00	52.13%	47.61%	-21.42	0-3
2006-10-01	@ St. Louis Rams	L 34-41	1366.92	1455.49	34.31%	65.44%	-14.11	0-4
2006-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-26	1352.81	1511.61	25.85%	73.89%	-12.06	0-5
2006-10-15	Buffalo Bills	W 20-17	1340.75	1451.67	37.54%	62.20%	+16.73	1-5
2006-10-22	@ New York Jets	L 24-31	1357.48	1445.73	34.35%	65.39%	-14.13	1-6
2006-11-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-14	1343.35	1527.59	28.27%	71.47%	+44.38	2-6
2006-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-19	1387.73	1372.04	55.47%	44.27%	-21.09	2-7
2006-11-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-17	1366.64	1318.37	53.45%	46.30%	-21.96	2-8
2006-11-23	Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1344.68	1487.43	33.35%	66.39%	-21.37	2-9
2006-12-03	@ New England Patriots	L 21-28	1323.31	1671.03	10.51%	89.23%	-4.33	2-10
2006-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-30	1318.98	1464.91	32.95%	66.80%	-16.20	2-11
2006-12-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1302.78	1386.55	34.93%	64.81%	-15.35	2-12
2006-12-24	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1287.43	1676.26	10.82%	88.92%	-1.26	2-13
2006-12-31	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 39-31	1286.17	1539.92	16.79%	82.95%	+36.43	3-13
2006-09-10	Chicago Bears	L 0-26	1453.48	1514.47	44.48%	55.26%	-35.23	0-1
2006-09-17	New Orleans Saints	L 27-34	1418.25	1411.75	54.16%	45.58%	-22.25	0-2
2006-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1396.00	1388.34	47.61%	52.13%	+21.41	1-2
2006-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-31	1417.41	1480.28	37.72%	62.03%	-27.49	1-3
2006-10-08	St. Louis Rams	L 20-23	1389.92	1469.60	41.84%	57.90%	-11.26	1-4
2006-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-24	1378.66	1429.60	39.34%	60.40%	+29.66	2-4
2006-10-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-14	1408.32	1361.01	59.90%	39.84%	+25.52	3-4
2006-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-24	1433.84	1414.62	49.27%	50.47%	-28.63	3-5
2006-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-17	1405.21	1506.94	32.62%	67.12%	+25.52	4-5
2006-11-19	New England Patriots	L 0-35	1430.73	1631.98	26.33%	73.42%	-24.22	4-6
2006-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-34	1406.51	1541.95	28.51%	71.24%	-14.01	4-7
2006-12-03	New York Jets	L 10-38	1392.50	1466.79	42.60%	57.14%	-35.02	4-8
2006-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-19	1357.48	1380.17	43.28%	56.46%	+29.07	5-8
2006-12-17	Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1386.55	1302.78	64.81%	34.93%	+15.36	6-8
2006-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 9-7	1401.91	1449.88	46.34%	53.40%	+11.73	7-8
2006-12-31	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-7	1413.64	1677.52	15.99%	83.75%	+18.89	8-8
2006-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-24	1400.40	1445.07	46.81%	52.93%	-27.21	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-43	1373.19	1609.15	18.27%	81.47%	-12.39	0-2
2006-09-24	Washington Redskins	L 15-31	1360.80	1509.26	32.63%	67.12%	-20.28	0-3
2006-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 17-15	1340.52	1469.63	35.12%	64.62%	+14.18	1-3
2006-10-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-34	1354.70	1510.23	26.21%	73.53%	-21.56	1-4
2006-10-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-7	1333.14	1580.49	21.51%	78.23%	+54.31	2-4
2006-10-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-28	1387.45	1366.22	49.56%	50.18%	-18.85	2-5
2006-11-05	@ New York Giants	L 10-14	1368.60	1614.59	17.43%	82.32%	-5.43	2-6
2006-11-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-10	1363.17	1568.80	21.03%	78.72%	+21.17	3-6
2006-11-19	Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1384.34	1440.67	45.15%	54.60%	-12.15	3-7
2006-11-26	@ New York Jets	L 11-26	1372.19	1444.88	36.40%	63.35%	-21.90	3-8
2006-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-14	1350.29	1358.42	45.35%	54.39%	+25.33	4-8
2006-12-10	Tennessee Titans	L 20-26	1375.62	1448.09	42.86%	56.89%	-16.31	4-9
2006-12-17	@ New England Patriots	L 7-40	1359.31	1623.80	15.95%	83.80%	-14.25	4-10
2006-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1345.06	1651.66	16.31%	83.44%	+22.44	5-10
2006-12-31	Cleveland Browns	W 14-6	1367.50	1346.56	56.21%	43.53%	+19.13	6-10
2006-09-10	@ New York Giants	W 26-21	1594.11	1524.79	56.44%	43.30%	+15.04	1-0
2006-09-17	Houston Texans	W 43-24	1609.15	1373.19	81.47%	18.27%	+12.39	2-0
2006-09-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-14	1621.54	1581.09	58.95%	40.79%	+16.77	3-0
2006-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 31-28	1638.31	1476.96	68.73%	31.02%	+8.35	4-0
2006-10-08	Tennessee Titans	W 14-13	1646.66	1348.10	86.25%	13.49%	+2.10	5-0
2006-10-22	Washington Redskins	W 36-22	1648.76	1496.59	73.16%	26.59%	+15.46	6-0
2006-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-31	1664.22	1636.16	50.55%	49.20%	+13.24	7-0
2006-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 27-20	1677.46	1675.16	46.84%	52.90%	+21.73	8-0
2006-11-12	Buffalo Bills	W 17-16	1699.19	1443.25	83.13%	16.62%	+2.59	9-0
2006-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-21	1701.78	1550.51	67.47%	32.27%	-27.71	9-1
2006-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-21	1674.07	1475.93	77.99%	21.75%	+16.57	10-1
2006-12-03	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1690.64	1426.63	79.81%	19.94%	-21.46	10-2
2006-12-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-44	1669.18	1588.97	57.97%	41.77%	-46.77	10-3
2006-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-16	1622.41	1607.42	55.37%	44.37%	+29.25	11-3
2006-12-24	@ Houston Texans	L 24-27	1651.66	1345.06	83.44%	16.31%	-22.44	11-4
2006-12-31	Miami Dolphins	W 27-22	1629.22	1483.16	72.47%	27.28%	+9.48	12-4
2006-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1534.33	1490.00	59.49%	40.25%	+16.55	1-0
2006-09-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 9-0	1550.88	1681.86	34.88%	64.87%	+30.21	2-0
2006-09-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-21	1581.09	1621.54	40.79%	58.95%	-16.77	2-1
2006-10-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-36	1564.32	1529.54	51.51%	48.23%	-19.59	2-2
2006-10-08	New York Jets	W 41-0	1544.73	1468.61	63.80%	35.94%	+35.76	3-2
2006-10-22	@ Houston Texans	L 7-27	1580.49	1333.14	78.23%	21.51%	-54.31	3-3
2006-10-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-6	1526.18	1509.79	48.87%	50.88%	+20.90	4-3
2006-11-05	Tennessee Titans	W 37-7	1547.08	1385.07	74.25%	25.50%	+21.72	5-3
2006-11-12	Houston Texans	L 10-13	1568.80	1363.17	78.72%	21.03%	-21.17	5-4
2006-11-20	New York Giants	W 26-10	1547.63	1584.56	47.92%	51.82%	+32.19	6-4
2006-11-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1579.82	1452.81	64.35%	35.40%	-17.30	6-5
2006-12-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-10	1562.52	1508.80	54.23%	45.52%	+26.45	7-5
2006-12-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 44-17	1588.97	1669.18	41.77%	57.97%	+46.77	8-5
2006-12-17	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-24	1635.74	1464.40	69.94%	29.80%	-28.72	8-6
2006-12-24	New England Patriots	L 21-24	1607.02	1638.05	48.77%	50.97%	-13.12	8-7
2006-12-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-35	1593.90	1549.05	52.96%	46.79%	-18.39	8-8
2006-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1560.74	1524.77	58.33%	41.42%	-32.65	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-9	1528.09	1556.26	42.51%	57.23%	-11.43	0-2
2006-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-0	1516.66	1371.11	72.41%	27.34%	+27.21	1-2
2006-10-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-20	1543.87	1404.36	65.98%	33.77%	+9.09	2-2
2006-10-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-45	1552.96	1600.10	39.87%	59.88%	-38.18	2-3
2006-10-22	San Diego Chargers	W 30-27	1514.78	1653.61	33.86%	65.89%	+17.71	3-3
2006-10-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-28	1532.49	1566.94	48.28%	51.46%	+21.15	4-3
2006-11-05	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-17	1553.64	1458.14	60.10%	39.64%	+23.05	5-3
2006-11-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1576.69	1455.49	63.58%	36.17%	-17.10	5-4
2006-11-19	Oakland Raiders	W 17-13	1559.59	1370.12	77.13%	22.61%	+7.03	6-4
2006-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 19-10	1566.62	1631.62	43.91%	55.83%	+26.01	7-4
2006-12-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 28-31	1592.63	1388.42	73.75%	26.00%	-19.83	7-5
2006-12-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-20	1572.80	1620.08	46.44%	53.31%	-22.81	7-6
2006-12-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 9-20	1549.99	1732.12	23.36%	76.38%	-12.05	7-7
2006-12-23	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-9	1537.94	1290.88	78.21%	21.54%	+11.11	8-7
2006-12-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-30	1549.05	1593.90	46.79%	52.96%	+18.39	9-7
2006-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1501.36	1669.03	24.88%	74.86%	-12.83	0-1
2006-09-17	Buffalo Bills	L 6-16	1488.53	1451.15	58.52%	41.22%	-28.73	0-2
2006-09-24	Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1459.80	1388.03	63.22%	36.52%	+9.83	1-2
2006-10-01	@ Houston Texans	L 15-17	1469.63	1340.52	64.62%	35.12%	-14.19	1-3
2006-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1455.44	1609.68	26.36%	73.39%	-12.96	1-4
2006-10-15	@ New York Jets	L 17-20	1442.48	1432.85	47.90%	51.85%	-12.88	1-5
2006-10-22	Green Bay Packers	L 24-34	1429.60	1378.66	60.40%	39.34%	-29.65	1-6
2006-11-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-13	1399.95	1671.43	15.41%	84.33%	+55.54	2-6
2006-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1455.49	1576.69	36.17%	63.58%	+17.10	3-6
2006-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1472.59	1481.42	51.96%	47.78%	+14.84	4-6
2006-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1487.43	1344.68	66.39%	33.35%	+21.37	5-6
2006-12-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-24	1508.80	1562.52	45.52%	54.23%	-26.45	5-7
2006-12-10	New England Patriots	W 21-0	1482.35	1675.36	27.26%	72.49%	+51.56	6-7
2006-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-21	1533.91	1502.47	51.03%	48.71%	-36.31	6-8
2006-12-25	New York Jets	L 10-13	1497.60	1494.44	53.68%	46.06%	-14.44	6-9
2006-12-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 22-27	1483.16	1629.22	27.28%	72.47%	-9.49	6-10
2006-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-16	1515.34	1561.72	39.97%	59.77%	+16.07	1-0
2006-09-17	Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1531.41	1554.65	49.89%	49.85%	+13.41	2-0
2006-09-24	Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1544.82	1572.43	49.26%	50.48%	-13.25	2-1
2006-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-17	1531.57	1454.76	57.50%	42.25%	-19.96	2-2
2006-10-08	Detroit Lions	W 26-17	1511.61	1352.81	73.89%	25.85%	+12.06	3-2
2006-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-13	1523.67	1609.83	34.62%	65.12%	+42.89	4-2
2006-10-30	New England Patriots	L 7-31	1566.56	1642.96	42.30%	57.44%	-32.20	4-3
2006-11-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-9	1534.36	1344.62	72.11%	27.63%	-27.42	4-4
2006-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 17-23	1506.94	1405.21	67.12%	32.62%	-25.52	4-5
2006-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1481.42	1472.59	47.78%	51.96%	-14.84	4-6
2006-11-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-26	1466.58	1340.33	70.15%	29.60%	+10.29	5-6
2006-12-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-23	1476.87	1649.91	24.31%	75.44%	-11.96	5-7
2006-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-20	1464.91	1318.98	66.80%	32.95%	+16.20	6-7
2006-12-17	New York Jets	L 13-26	1481.11	1463.21	55.78%	43.96%	-31.23	6-8
2006-12-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-9	1449.88	1401.91	53.40%	46.34%	-11.73	6-9
2006-12-31	St. Louis Rams	L 21-41	1438.15	1425.35	55.06%	44.68%	-38.23	6-10
2006-09-10	Buffalo Bills	W 19-17	1569.31	1458.06	68.31%	31.43%	+6.91	1-0
2006-09-17	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1576.22	1467.39	61.92%	37.82%	+15.55	2-0
2006-09-24	Denver Broncos	L 7-17	1591.77	1567.69	56.66%	43.09%	-27.82	2-1
2006-10-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-13	1563.95	1604.14	40.83%	58.92%	+45.73	3-1
2006-10-08	Miami Dolphins	W 20-10	1609.68	1455.44	73.39%	26.36%	+12.96	4-1
2006-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-6	1622.64	1434.94	71.88%	27.87%	+20.32	5-1
2006-10-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-7	1642.96	1566.56	57.44%	42.30%	+32.20	6-1
2006-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1675.16	1677.46	52.90%	46.84%	-21.73	6-2
2006-11-12	New York Jets	L 14-17	1653.43	1436.84	79.75%	20.00%	-21.45	6-3
2006-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 35-0	1631.98	1430.73	73.42%	26.33%	+24.22	7-3
2006-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 17-13	1656.20	1664.74	52.01%	47.74%	+14.83	8-3
2006-12-03	Detroit Lions	W 28-21	1671.03	1323.31	89.23%	10.51%	+4.33	9-3
2006-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1675.36	1482.35	72.49%	27.26%	-51.56	9-4
2006-12-17	Houston Texans	W 40-7	1623.80	1359.31	83.80%	15.95%	+14.25	10-4
2006-12-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-21	1638.05	1607.02	50.97%	48.77%	+13.12	11-4
2006-12-31	@ Tennessee Titans	W 40-23	1651.17	1502.39	67.16%	32.59%	+20.88	12-4
2006-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 19-14	1390.39	1449.58	38.21%	61.53%	+21.36	1-0
2006-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-27	1411.75	1418.25	45.58%	54.16%	+22.25	2-0
2006-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-3	1434.00	1540.60	38.13%	61.62%	+42.78	3-0
2006-10-01	@ Carolina Panthers	L 18-21	1476.78	1549.99	36.33%	63.42%	-9.78	3-1
2006-10-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1467.00	1438.26	57.31%	42.43%	+11.42	4-1
2006-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1478.42	1537.48	44.76%	54.99%	+14.78	5-1
2006-10-29	Baltimore Ravens	L 22-35	1493.20	1542.18	46.20%	53.55%	-25.87	5-2
2006-11-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1467.33	1434.15	51.28%	48.46%	+31.03	6-2
2006-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-38	1498.36	1563.00	37.48%	62.27%	-15.40	6-3
2006-11-19	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-31	1482.96	1516.72	48.38%	51.37%	-29.10	6-4
2006-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-13	1453.86	1446.17	47.61%	52.13%	+34.34	7-4
2006-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-10	1488.20	1407.02	64.47%	35.27%	+26.86	8-4
2006-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 42-17	1515.06	1609.74	33.52%	66.22%	+51.40	9-4
2006-12-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1566.46	1424.04	72.05%	27.70%	-27.40	9-5
2006-12-24	@ New York Giants	W 30-7	1539.06	1517.35	49.63%	50.11%	+37.32	10-5
2006-12-31	Carolina Panthers	L 21-31	1576.38	1479.36	66.52%	33.22%	-32.65	10-6
2006-09-10	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-26	1524.79	1594.11	43.30%	56.44%	-15.04	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-24	1509.75	1472.28	51.90%	47.84%	+18.20	1-1
2006-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 30-42	1527.95	1632.71	32.24%	67.50%	-17.36	1-2
2006-10-08	Washington Redskins	W 19-3	1510.59	1549.14	47.69%	52.05%	+32.33	2-2
2006-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1542.92	1524.98	49.09%	50.65%	+28.37	3-2
2006-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 36-22	1571.29	1531.80	52.19%	47.56%	+27.63	4-2
2006-10-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-3	1598.92	1449.82	72.81%	26.93%	+15.67	5-2
2006-11-05	Houston Texans	W 14-10	1614.59	1368.60	82.32%	17.43%	+5.42	6-2
2006-11-12	Chicago Bears	L 20-38	1620.01	1615.89	53.82%	45.92%	-35.45	6-3
2006-11-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-26	1584.56	1547.63	51.82%	47.92%	-32.19	6-4
2006-11-26	@ Tennessee Titans	L 21-24	1552.37	1408.75	66.50%	33.24%	-17.88	6-5
2006-12-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-23	1534.49	1597.86	44.14%	55.60%	-11.88	6-6
2006-12-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-13	1522.61	1525.93	46.04%	53.71%	+31.20	7-6
2006-12-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-36	1553.81	1485.44	62.77%	36.97%	-36.46	7-7
2006-12-24	New Orleans Saints	L 7-30	1517.35	1539.06	50.11%	49.63%	-37.32	7-8
2006-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-28	1480.03	1431.22	53.53%	46.22%	+17.59	8-8
2006-09-10	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-16	1446.63	1427.86	49.21%	50.54%	+20.76	1-0
2006-09-17	New England Patriots	L 17-24	1467.39	1576.22	37.82%	61.92%	-15.55	1-1
2006-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-20	1451.84	1479.88	42.53%	57.22%	+25.12	2-1
2006-10-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1476.96	1638.31	31.02%	68.73%	-8.35	2-2
2006-10-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-41	1468.61	1544.73	35.94%	63.80%	-35.76	2-3
2006-10-15	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1432.85	1442.48	51.85%	47.90%	+12.88	3-3
2006-10-22	Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1445.73	1357.48	65.39%	34.35%	+14.13	4-3
2006-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-20	1459.86	1393.43	56.03%	43.71%	-23.02	4-4
2006-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 17-14	1436.84	1653.43	20.00%	79.75%	+21.44	5-4
2006-11-19	Chicago Bears	L 0-10	1458.28	1651.34	27.25%	72.49%	-13.40	5-5
2006-11-26	Houston Texans	W 26-11	1444.88	1372.19	63.35%	36.40%	+21.91	6-5
2006-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-10	1466.79	1392.50	57.14%	42.60%	+35.02	7-5
2006-12-10	Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1501.81	1463.87	58.60%	41.14%	-38.60	7-6
2006-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 26-13	1463.21	1481.11	43.96%	55.78%	+31.23	8-6
2006-12-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1494.44	1497.60	46.06%	53.68%	+14.43	9-6
2006-12-31	Oakland Raiders	W 23-3	1508.87	1279.77	80.88%	18.87%	+13.13	10-6
2006-09-11	San Diego Chargers	L 0-27	1424.17	1584.29	31.17%	68.58%	-25.18	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-28	1398.99	1533.50	28.62%	71.13%	-20.87	0-2
2006-10-01	Cleveland Browns	L 21-24	1378.12	1404.33	49.46%	50.28%	-13.30	0-3
2006-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-34	1364.82	1343.89	49.52%	50.23%	-28.78	0-4
2006-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-13	1336.04	1616.90	14.72%	85.02%	-7.24	0-5
2006-10-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 22-9	1328.80	1392.13	44.15%	55.59%	+31.12	1-5
2006-10-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-13	1359.92	1620.47	20.26%	79.49%	+32.65	2-5
2006-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-16	1392.57	1545.80	26.47%	73.28%	-16.46	2-6
2006-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 13-17	1376.11	1647.74	19.24%	80.50%	-5.99	2-7
2006-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1370.12	1559.59	22.61%	77.13%	-7.03	2-8
2006-11-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1363.09	1695.98	11.34%	88.40%	-4.67	2-9
2006-12-03	Houston Texans	L 14-23	1358.42	1350.29	54.39%	45.35%	-25.34	2-10
2006-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1333.08	1597.18	15.98%	83.77%	-10.25	2-11
2006-12-17	St. Louis Rams	L 0-20	1322.83	1373.17	46.00%	53.74%	-31.95	2-12
2006-12-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-20	1290.88	1537.94	21.54%	78.21%	-11.11	2-13
2006-12-31	@ New York Jets	L 3-23	1279.77	1508.87	18.87%	80.88%	-13.13	2-14
2006-09-10	@ Houston Texans	W 24-10	1445.07	1400.40	52.93%	46.81%	+27.21	1-0
2006-09-17	New York Giants	L 24-30	1472.28	1509.75	47.84%	51.90%	-18.21	1-1
2006-09-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-24	1454.07	1397.31	54.66%	45.08%	+26.21	2-1
2006-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 31-9	1480.28	1417.41	62.03%	37.72%	+27.49	3-1
2006-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-24	1507.77	1539.94	48.61%	51.14%	+29.71	4-1
2006-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1537.48	1478.42	54.99%	44.76%	-14.79	4-2
2006-10-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-23	1522.69	1436.92	58.75%	40.99%	-12.90	4-3
2006-10-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-13	1509.79	1526.18	50.88%	48.87%	-20.90	4-4
2006-11-12	Washington Redskins	W 27-3	1488.89	1496.22	52.18%	47.56%	+36.19	5-4
2006-11-19	Tennessee Titans	L 13-31	1525.08	1359.60	74.63%	25.12%	-49.15	5-5
2006-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-45	1475.93	1674.07	21.75%	77.99%	-16.57	5-6
2006-12-04	Carolina Panthers	W 27-24	1459.36	1541.60	41.49%	58.26%	+15.67	6-6
2006-12-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-19	1475.03	1434.45	52.34%	47.40%	+10.41	7-6
2006-12-17	@ New York Giants	W 36-22	1485.44	1553.81	36.97%	62.77%	+36.46	8-6
2006-12-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-7	1521.90	1577.85	38.66%	61.09%	+37.93	9-6
2006-12-31	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1559.83	1422.87	71.41%	28.33%	+11.66	10-6
2006-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 28-17	1669.03	1501.36	74.86%	24.88%	+12.83	1-0
2006-09-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-9	1681.86	1550.88	64.87%	34.88%	-30.21	1-1
2006-09-24	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-28	1651.65	1576.16	63.72%	36.03%	-27.98	1-2
2006-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1623.67	1613.36	47.99%	51.75%	-23.57	1-3
2006-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-7	1600.10	1552.96	59.88%	39.87%	+38.19	2-3
2006-10-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 38-41	1638.29	1496.62	66.25%	33.49%	-17.82	2-4
2006-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-20	1620.47	1359.92	79.49%	20.26%	-32.65	2-5
2006-11-05	Denver Broncos	L 20-31	1587.82	1622.92	48.19%	51.56%	-24.82	2-6
2006-11-12	New Orleans Saints	W 38-31	1563.00	1498.36	62.27%	37.48%	+15.41	3-6
2006-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-20	1578.41	1428.61	67.29%	32.46%	+10.09	4-6
2006-11-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 0-27	1588.50	1605.78	44.05%	55.69%	-35.55	4-7
2006-12-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-3	1552.95	1381.32	75.28%	24.46%	+15.68	5-7
2006-12-07	Cleveland Browns	W 27-7	1568.63	1408.25	74.07%	25.67%	+17.85	6-7
2006-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-3	1586.48	1494.73	59.58%	40.16%	+36.39	7-7
2006-12-24	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-31	1622.87	1651.20	49.16%	50.58%	-37.40	7-8
2006-12-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-17	1585.47	1571.07	48.58%	51.17%	+19.46	8-8
2006-09-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-0	1584.29	1424.17	68.58%	31.17%	+25.17	1-0
2006-09-17	Tennessee Titans	W 40-7	1609.46	1407.10	78.41%	21.34%	+19.07	2-0
2006-10-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-16	1628.53	1559.51	56.40%	43.34%	-15.17	2-1
2006-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-13	1613.36	1623.67	51.75%	47.99%	+23.57	3-1
2006-10-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 48-19	1636.93	1372.67	79.83%	19.91%	+16.68	4-1
2006-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-30	1653.61	1514.78	65.89%	33.86%	-17.71	4-2
2006-10-29	St. Louis Rams	W 38-24	1635.90	1472.91	74.35%	25.39%	+14.77	5-2
2006-11-05	Cleveland Browns	W 32-25	1650.67	1416.45	81.32%	18.42%	+7.58	6-2
2006-11-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 49-41	1658.25	1532.35	64.20%	35.54%	+15.62	7-2
2006-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 35-27	1673.87	1653.73	49.41%	50.34%	+22.11	8-2
2006-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1695.98	1363.09	88.40%	11.34%	+4.67	9-2
2006-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-21	1700.65	1470.11	76.55%	23.19%	+6.25	10-2
2006-12-10	Denver Broncos	W 48-20	1706.90	1589.42	69.08%	30.66%	+25.22	11-2
2006-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-9	1732.12	1549.99	76.38%	23.36%	+12.05	12-2
2006-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1744.17	1506.10	77.32%	22.43%	+6.04	13-2
2006-12-31	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-20	1750.21	1397.91	89.48%	10.27%	+1.41	14-2
2006-09-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 27-34	1388.75	1440.10	39.29%	60.46%	-16.15	0-1
2006-09-17	St. Louis Rams	W 20-13	1372.60	1468.53	39.59%	60.16%	+24.71	1-1
2006-09-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-38	1397.31	1454.07	45.08%	54.66%	-26.20	1-2
2006-10-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-41	1371.11	1516.66	27.34%	72.41%	-27.22	1-3
2006-10-08	Oakland Raiders	W 34-20	1343.89	1364.82	50.23%	49.52%	+28.78	2-3
2006-10-15	San Diego Chargers	L 19-48	1372.67	1636.93	19.91%	79.83%	-16.68	2-4
2006-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-41	1355.99	1660.06	13.12%	86.62%	-11.37	2-5
2006-11-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 9-3	1344.62	1534.36	27.63%	72.11%	+27.42	3-5
2006-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-13	1372.04	1387.73	44.27%	55.47%	+21.10	4-5
2006-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-14	1393.14	1568.74	29.29%	70.46%	+26.78	5-5
2006-11-26	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-20	1419.92	1409.87	47.95%	51.79%	-12.90	5-6
2006-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-34	1407.02	1488.20	35.27%	64.47%	-26.85	5-7
2006-12-10	Green Bay Packers	L 19-30	1380.17	1357.48	56.46%	43.28%	-29.08	5-8
2006-12-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-14	1351.09	1544.14	22.25%	77.49%	+38.04	6-8
2006-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-26	1389.13	1377.01	54.96%	44.78%	-20.90	6-9
2006-12-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-23	1368.23	1590.68	19.46%	80.28%	+21.59	7-9
2006-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 9-6	1612.32	1418.38	72.59%	27.15%	+7.32	1-0
2006-09-17	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-10	1619.64	1456.25	74.40%	25.35%	+13.07	2-0
2006-09-24	New York Giants	W 42-30	1632.71	1527.95	67.50%	32.24%	+17.36	3-0
2006-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-37	1650.07	1585.69	55.74%	44.00%	-48.19	3-1
2006-10-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 30-28	1601.88	1480.86	63.55%	36.19%	+7.95	4-1
2006-10-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-31	1609.83	1523.67	65.12%	34.62%	-42.89	4-2
2006-10-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-35	1566.94	1532.49	51.46%	48.28%	-21.14	4-3
2006-11-06	Oakland Raiders	W 16-0	1545.80	1392.57	73.28%	26.47%	+16.46	5-3
2006-11-12	St. Louis Rams	W 24-22	1562.26	1435.09	70.26%	29.49%	+6.48	6-3
2006-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-20	1568.74	1393.14	70.46%	29.29%	-26.79	6-4
2006-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1541.95	1406.51	71.24%	28.51%	+14.02	7-4
2006-12-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1555.97	1605.62	39.52%	60.22%	+16.19	8-4
2006-12-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-27	1572.16	1368.36	73.70%	26.04%	-28.02	8-5
2006-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1544.14	1351.09	77.49%	22.25%	-38.04	8-6
2006-12-24	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1506.10	1744.17	22.43%	77.32%	-6.04	8-7
2006-12-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1500.06	1376.22	63.93%	35.81%	+22.26	9-7
2006-09-10	Denver Broncos	W 18-10	1439.18	1585.61	32.88%	66.86%	+29.35	1-0
2006-09-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-20	1468.53	1372.60	60.16%	39.59%	-24.70	1-1
2006-09-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 16-14	1443.83	1443.18	46.61%	53.14%	+11.66	2-1
2006-10-01	Detroit Lions	W 41-34	1455.49	1366.92	65.44%	34.31%	+14.11	3-1
2006-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1469.60	1389.92	57.90%	41.84%	+11.26	4-1
2006-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 28-30	1480.86	1601.88	36.19%	63.55%	-7.95	4-2
2006-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-38	1472.91	1635.90	25.39%	74.35%	-14.77	4-3
2006-11-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1458.14	1553.64	39.64%	60.10%	-23.05	4-4
2006-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 22-24	1435.09	1562.26	29.49%	70.26%	-6.49	4-5
2006-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-15	1428.60	1542.41	31.11%	68.63%	-18.73	4-6
2006-11-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1409.87	1419.92	51.79%	47.95%	+12.90	5-6
2006-12-03	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-34	1422.77	1330.04	65.97%	33.77%	-38.32	5-7
2006-12-11	Chicago Bears	L 27-42	1384.45	1661.86	18.73%	81.01%	-11.28	5-8
2006-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-0	1373.17	1322.83	53.74%	46.00%	+31.95	6-8
2006-12-24	Washington Redskins	W 37-31	1405.12	1451.44	46.58%	53.17%	+20.23	7-8
2006-12-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 41-21	1425.35	1438.15	44.68%	55.06%	+38.23	8-8
2006-09-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-27	1512.96	1487.65	56.83%	42.91%	-45.85	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-14	1467.11	1520.50	39.01%	60.74%	-20.10	0-2
2006-09-24	Carolina Panthers	L 24-26	1447.01	1541.24	39.82%	59.92%	-8.75	0-3
2006-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-24	1438.26	1467.00	42.43%	57.31%	-11.42	0-4
2006-10-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-13	1426.84	1558.41	34.80%	64.95%	+10.08	1-4
2006-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1436.92	1522.69	40.99%	58.75%	+12.90	2-4
2006-10-29	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1449.82	1598.92	26.93%	72.81%	-15.67	2-5
2006-11-05	New Orleans Saints	L 14-31	1434.15	1467.33	48.46%	51.28%	-31.03	2-6
2006-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-24	1403.12	1524.88	30.14%	69.60%	-17.53	2-7
2006-11-19	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1385.59	1460.03	42.58%	57.17%	+15.37	3-7
2006-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1400.96	1578.22	23.86%	75.88%	-19.64	3-8
2006-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-20	1381.32	1552.95	24.46%	75.28%	-15.68	3-9
2006-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-17	1365.64	1441.58	42.37%	57.38%	-21.83	3-10
2006-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 31-34	1343.81	1673.15	11.55%	88.19%	-3.11	3-11
2006-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 22-7	1340.70	1382.08	40.66%	59.08%	+35.52	4-11
2006-12-31	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-23	1376.22	1500.06	35.81%	63.93%	-22.26	4-12
2006-09-10	New York Jets	L 16-23	1427.86	1446.63	50.54%	49.21%	-20.76	0-1
2006-09-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-40	1407.10	1609.46	21.34%	78.41%	-19.07	0-2
2006-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1388.03	1459.80	36.52%	63.22%	-9.83	0-3
2006-10-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-45	1378.20	1509.84	34.79%	64.95%	-30.10	0-4
2006-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-14	1348.10	1646.66	13.49%	86.25%	-2.10	0-5
2006-10-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 25-22	1346.00	1516.80	24.55%	75.20%	+20.22	1-5
2006-10-29	Houston Texans	W 28-22	1366.22	1387.45	50.18%	49.56%	+18.85	2-5
2006-11-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-37	1385.07	1547.08	25.50%	74.25%	-21.71	2-6
2006-11-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 26-27	1363.36	1584.72	24.14%	75.60%	-3.76	2-7
2006-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-13	1359.60	1525.08	25.12%	74.63%	+49.15	3-7
2006-11-26	New York Giants	W 24-21	1408.75	1552.37	33.24%	66.50%	+17.88	4-7
2006-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-17	1426.63	1690.64	19.94%	79.81%	+21.46	5-7
2006-12-10	@ Houston Texans	W 26-20	1448.09	1375.62	56.89%	42.86%	+16.31	6-7
2006-12-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1464.40	1635.74	29.80%	69.94%	+28.72	7-7
2006-12-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-29	1493.12	1538.78	40.07%	59.67%	+9.27	8-7
2006-12-31	New England Patriots	L 23-40	1502.39	1651.17	32.59%	67.16%	-20.89	8-8
2006-09-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-19	1561.72	1515.34	59.77%	39.97%	-16.07	0-1
2006-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1545.65	1473.45	56.85%	42.89%	-36.39	0-2
2006-09-24	@ Houston Texans	W 31-15	1509.26	1360.80	67.12%	32.63%	+20.28	1-2
2006-10-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 36-30	1529.54	1564.32	48.23%	51.51%	+19.60	2-2
2006-10-08	@ New York Giants	L 3-19	1549.14	1510.59	52.05%	47.69%	-32.34	2-3
2006-10-15	Tennessee Titans	L 22-25	1516.80	1346.00	75.20%	24.55%	-20.21	2-4
2006-10-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 22-36	1496.59	1648.76	26.59%	73.16%	-15.47	2-5
2006-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-19	1481.12	1548.50	43.58%	56.17%	+15.10	3-5
2006-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-27	1496.22	1488.89	47.56%	52.18%	-36.19	3-6
2006-11-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1460.03	1385.59	57.17%	42.58%	-15.37	3-7
2006-11-26	Carolina Panthers	W 17-13	1444.66	1561.14	36.79%	62.95%	+19.54	4-7
2006-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1464.20	1411.83	60.60%	39.15%	-29.75	4-8
2006-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-21	1434.45	1475.03	47.40%	52.34%	-10.41	4-9
2006-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1424.04	1566.46	27.70%	72.05%	+27.40	5-9
2006-12-24	@ St. Louis Rams	L 31-37	1451.44	1405.12	53.17%	46.58%	-20.22	5-10
2006-12-30	New York Giants	L 28-34	1431.22	1480.03	46.22%	53.53%	-17.59	5-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2007-01-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-15	1702.51	1660.73	59.27%	40.73%	-27.55	0-1
2007-01-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1658.63	1529.13	70.68%	29.32%	+7.86	1-0
2007-01-21	New Orleans Saints	W 39-14	1666.49	1557.69	68.16%	31.84%	+24.67	2-0
2007-02-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-29	1691.16	1703.58	48.21%	51.79%	-25.87	2-1
2007-01-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-21	1503.50	1522.32	43.96%	56.04%	-6.81	0-1
2007-01-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-8	1638.70	1567.44	63.29%	36.71%	+22.03	1-0
2007-01-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 15-6	1660.73	1702.51	40.73%	59.27%	+27.54	2-0
2007-01-21	New England Patriots	W 38-34	1688.27	1707.75	50.56%	49.44%	+15.31	3-0
2007-02-04	Chicago Bears	W 29-17	1703.58	1691.16	51.79%	48.21%	+25.88	4-0
2007-01-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 8-23	1567.44	1638.70	36.71%	63.29%	-22.02	0-1
2007-01-07	New York Jets	W 37-16	1672.05	1522.00	73.07%	26.93%	+19.11	1-0
2007-01-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-21	1691.16	1751.62	38.16%	61.84%	+16.59	2-0
2007-01-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 34-38	1707.75	1688.27	49.44%	50.56%	-15.31	2-1
2007-01-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1543.73	1581.24	47.97%	52.03%	+13.96	1-0
2007-01-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-39	1557.69	1666.49	31.84%	68.16%	-24.66	1-1
2007-01-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1497.62	1571.49	36.36%	63.64%	-9.76	0-1
2007-01-07	@ New England Patriots	L 16-37	1522.00	1672.05	26.93%	73.07%	-19.11	0-1
2007-01-07	New York Giants	W 23-20	1571.49	1497.62	63.64%	36.36%	+9.75	1-0
2007-01-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1581.24	1543.73	52.03%	47.97%	-13.96	1-1
2007-01-14	New England Patriots	L 21-24	1751.62	1691.16	61.84%	38.16%	-16.59	0-1
2007-01-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-20	1522.32	1503.50	56.04%	43.96%	+6.81	1-0
2007-01-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1529.13	1658.63	29.32%	70.68%	-7.86	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2006-11-05	15.41%	Miami Dolphins	1399.95	31	@ Chicago Bears	1671.43	13
2	2006-12-31	15.99%	Green Bay Packers	1413.64	26	@ Chicago Bears	1677.52	7
3	2006-12-24	16.31%	@ Houston Texans	1345.06	27	Indianapolis Colts	1651.66	24
4	2006-12-31	16.79%	Detroit Lions	1286.17	39	@ Dallas Cowboys	1539.92	31
5	2006-12-31	19.46%	San Francisco 49ers	1368.23	26	@ Denver Broncos	1590.68	23
6	2006-12-03	19.94%	@ Tennessee Titans	1426.63	20	Indianapolis Colts	1690.64	17
7	2006-11-12	20.00%	New York Jets	1436.84	17	@ New England Patriots	1653.43	14
8	2006-10-29	20.26%	@ Oakland Raiders	1359.92	20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1620.47	13
9	2006-11-12	21.03%	Houston Texans	1363.17	13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1568.80	10
10	2006-10-22	21.51%	@ Houston Texans	1333.14	27	Jacksonville Jaguars	1580.49	7
11	2006-12-14	22.25%	San Francisco 49ers	1351.09	24	@ Seattle Seahawks	1544.14	14
12	2006-10-15	24.55%	Tennessee Titans	1346.00	25	@ Washington Redskins	1516.80	22
13	2006-11-19	25.12%	Tennessee Titans	1359.60	31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1525.08	13
14	2006-12-03	26.00%	@ Cleveland Browns	1388.42	31	Kansas City Chiefs	1592.63	28
15	2006-12-10	26.04%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1368.36	27	Seattle Seahawks	1572.16	21
16	2006-12-10	27.26%	@ Miami Dolphins	1482.35	21	New England Patriots	1675.36	0
17	2006-11-05	27.63%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1344.62	9	Minnesota Vikings	1534.36	3
18	2006-12-17	27.70%	Washington Redskins	1424.04	16	@ New Orleans Saints	1566.46	10
19	2006-11-05	28.27%	@ Detroit Lions	1343.35	30	Atlanta Falcons	1527.59	14
20	2006-11-19	29.29%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1393.14	20	Seattle Seahawks	1568.74	14
21	2006-12-17	29.80%	@ Tennessee Titans	1464.40	24	Jacksonville Jaguars	1635.74	17
22	2006-09-10	31.10%	Atlanta Falcons	1480.64	20	@ Carolina Panthers	1594.52	6
23	2006-11-19	32.27%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1550.51	21	Indianapolis Colts	1701.78	14
24	2006-11-12	32.62%	Green Bay Packers	1405.21	23	@ Minnesota Vikings	1506.94	17
25	2006-09-10	32.88%	@ St. Louis Rams	1439.18	18	Denver Broncos	1585.61	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2006-11-05	55.54	Miami Dolphins	31	1399.95	15.41%	@ Chicago Bears	13	1671.43	84.33%
2	2006-10-22	54.31	@ Houston Texans	27	1333.14	21.51%	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	1580.49	78.23%
3	2006-12-10	51.56	@ Miami Dolphins	21	1482.35	27.26%	New England Patriots	0	1675.36	72.49%
4	2006-12-10	51.40	New Orleans Saints	42	1515.06	33.52%	@ Dallas Cowboys	17	1609.74	66.22%
5	2006-11-19	49.15	Tennessee Titans	31	1359.60	25.12%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1525.08	74.63%
6	2006-10-01	48.19	@ Chicago Bears	37	1585.69	44.00%	Seattle Seahawks	6	1650.07	55.74%
7	2006-12-10	46.77	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	44	1588.97	41.77%	Indianapolis Colts	17	1669.18	57.97%
8	2006-09-10	45.85	Baltimore Ravens	27	1487.65	42.91%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1512.96	56.83%
9	2006-10-01	45.73	New England Patriots	38	1563.95	40.83%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	13	1604.14	58.92%
10	2006-11-05	44.38	@ Detroit Lions	30	1343.35	28.27%	Atlanta Falcons	14	1527.59	71.47%
11	2006-10-29	44.34	Dallas Cowboys	35	1504.16	37.42%	@ Carolina Panthers	14	1569.21	62.32%
12	2006-10-22	42.89	Minnesota Vikings	31	1523.67	34.62%	@ Seattle Seahawks	13	1609.83	65.12%
13	2006-09-25	42.78	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1434.00	38.13%	Atlanta Falcons	3	1540.60	61.62%
14	2006-09-10	39.87	Atlanta Falcons	20	1480.64	31.10%	@ Carolina Panthers	6	1594.52	68.64%
15	2006-12-10	38.60	Buffalo Bills	31	1463.87	41.14%	@ New York Jets	13	1501.81	58.60%
16	2006-12-03	38.32	Arizona Cardinals	34	1330.04	33.77%	@ St. Louis Rams	20	1422.77	65.97%
17	2006-12-31	38.23	St. Louis Rams	41	1425.35	44.68%	@ Minnesota Vikings	21	1438.15	55.06%
18	2006-10-15	38.19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	45	1600.10	59.88%	Kansas City Chiefs	7	1552.96	39.87%
19	2006-12-14	38.04	San Francisco 49ers	24	1351.09	22.25%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1544.14	77.49%
20	2006-12-25	37.93	Philadelphia Eagles	23	1521.90	38.66%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1577.85	61.09%
21	2006-12-24	37.40	Baltimore Ravens	31	1651.20	50.58%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1622.87	49.16%
22	2006-12-24	37.32	New Orleans Saints	30	1539.06	49.63%	@ New York Giants	7	1517.35	50.11%
23	2006-12-17	36.46	Philadelphia Eagles	36	1485.44	36.97%	@ New York Giants	22	1553.81	62.77%
24	2006-12-31	36.43	Detroit Lions	39	1286.17	16.79%	@ Dallas Cowboys	31	1539.92	82.95%
25	2006-09-17	36.39	@ Dallas Cowboys	27	1473.45	42.89%	Washington Redskins	10	1545.65	56.85%