2004 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2003

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1980

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

5.02 wins above expected

15 wins · 9.98 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

3.79 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.79 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	—	437	260	+177	11.55	+2.45
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	6	.625	4	333	261	+72	9.48	+0.52
3	Buffalo Bills	9	7	.562	5	395	284	+111	7.94	+1.06
4	Miami Dolphins	4	12	.250	10	275	354	-79	6.43	-2.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	15	1	.938	—	372	251	+121	9.98	+5.02
2	Baltimore Ravens	9	7	.562	6	317	268	+49	9.01	-0.01
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	7	374	372	+2	6.43	+1.57
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	11	276	390	-114	5.65	-1.65

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	12	4	.750	—	522	351	+171	10.52	+1.48
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	7	.562	3	261	280	-19	7.38	+1.62
3	Houston Texans	7	9	.438	5	309	339	-30	6.44	+0.56
4	Tennessee Titans	5	11	.312	7	344	439	-95	7.88	-2.88

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	12	4	.750	—	446	313	+133	9.04	+2.96
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	381	304	+77	9.74	+0.26
3	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	5	483	435	+48	7.97	-0.97
4	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	7	320	442	-122	5.88	-0.88

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	13	3	.812	—	386	260	+126	11.67	+1.33
2	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	7	240	265	-25	6.63	-0.63
3	Dallas Cowboys	6	10	.375	7	293	405	-112	6.59	-0.59
4	New York Giants	6	10	.375	7	303	347	-44	6.97	-0.97

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	6	.625	—	424	380	+44	9.44	+0.56
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	8	8	.500	2	405	395	+10	9.06	-1.06
3	Detroit Lions	6	10	.375	4	296	350	-54	7.04	-1.04
4	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	5	231	331	-100	6.94	-1.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	11	5	.688	—	340	337	+3	9.21	+1.79
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	3	348	405	-57	6.60	+1.40
3	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	4	355	339	+16	7.95	-0.95
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	6	301	304	-3	7.79	-2.79

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	9	7	.562	—	371	373	-2	8.94	+0.06
2	St. Louis Rams Playoffs	8	8	.500	1	319	392	-73	7.80	+0.20
3	Arizona Cardinals	6	10	.375	3	284	322	-38	6.29	-0.29
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	.125	7	259	452	-193	5.79	-3.79

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 20

San Diego Chargers 17

Jan 8

Indianapolis Colts 49

Denver Broncos 24

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 20

New York Jets 17

Jan 15

New England Patriots 20

Indianapolis Colts 3

Jan 16

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Jan 23

NFC

Wild Card Round

St. Louis Rams 27

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 8

Minnesota Vikings 31

Green Bay Packers 17

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons 47

St. Louis Rams 17

Jan 15

Philadelphia Eagles 27

Minnesota Vikings 14

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 27

Atlanta Falcons 10

Jan 23

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 24

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Feb 6

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1765	14	11.55	+2.45	96.50%	4	9	10	12	13	14	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1755	15	9.98	+5.02	99.99%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1725	12	10.52	+1.48	86.94%	4	7	9	11	12	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1697	13	11.67	+1.33	86.31%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1662	12	9.04	+2.96	97.24%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1635	9	7.94	+1.06	79.89%	2	5	7	8	9	11	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1602	10	9.44	+0.56	70.41%	3	6	8	9	11	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1577	9	9.01	-0.01	60.77%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1572	10	9.74	+0.26	65.75%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1565	7	7.97	-0.97	40.92%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1563	10	9.48	+0.52	70.52%	3	6	8	9	11	12	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1542	7	7.95	-0.95	41.33%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1535	11	9.21	+1.79	89.15%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1501	8	6.43	+1.57	87.07%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1476	9	7.38	+1.62	86.53%	1	4	6	7	9	10	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1476	7	6.44	+0.56	71.83%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1476	8	6.60	+1.40	84.43%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1469	9	8.94	+0.06	61.66%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1467	8	9.06	-1.06	38.47%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1449	6	6.63	-0.63	47.95%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1427	5	7.79	-2.79	12.26%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1423	8	7.80	+0.20	64.84%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1407	4	6.43	-2.43	14.80%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1396	6	6.97	-0.97	41.13%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1389	6	7.04	-1.04	39.89%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1388	6	6.29	-0.29	55.47%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1383	6	6.59	-0.59	48.91%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1379	5	7.88	-2.88	10.82%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1370	4	5.65	-1.65	27.51%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1336	5	5.88	-0.88	42.66%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1335	5	6.94	-1.94	22.91%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1257	2	5.79	-3.79	3.14%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
New England Patriots	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	9.98	+5.02
2	San Diego Chargers	12	9.04	+2.96
3	New England Patriots	14	11.55	+2.45
4	Atlanta Falcons	11	9.21	+1.79
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	7.38	+1.62

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	2	5.79	-3.79
2	Tennessee Titans	5	7.88	-2.88
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	7.79	-2.79
4	Miami Dolphins	4	6.43	-2.43
5	Chicago Bears	5	6.94	-1.94

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	Sep 26 – Jan 2	1 in 854
2	New Orleans Saints	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 78
3	New York Giants	4	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 27
4	Green Bay Packers	6	Oct 17 – Nov 29	1 in 27
5	San Diego Chargers	8	Oct 24 – Dec 19	1 in 26

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	8	Nov 7 – Dec 26	1 in 126
2	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Dec 27 – Jan 2	1 in 47
3	Miami Dolphins	6	Sep 11 – Oct 17	1 in 46
4	Green Bay Packers	4	Sep 19 – Oct 11	1 in 41
5	Carolina Panthers	6	Oct 3 – Nov 7	1 in 37

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	72.45%	21.44%	5.15%	0.96%
New York Jets	20.42%	47.22%	23.76%	8.60%
Buffalo Bills	5.89%	22.39%	45.33%	26.39%
Miami Dolphins	1.24%	8.95%	25.76%	64.05%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.71%	28.77%	9.01%	2.51%
Baltimore Ravens	32.29%	45.21%	16.82%	5.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.20%	16.15%	42.96%	35.69%
Cleveland Browns	2.80%	9.87%	31.21%	56.12%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	72.23%	19.26%	6.49%	2.02%
Tennessee Titans	13.92%	36.40%	30.72%	18.96%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.92%	27.98%	33.64%	28.46%
Houston Texans	3.93%	16.36%	29.15%	50.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	48.37%	30.36%	16.61%	4.66%
San Diego Chargers	33.12%	35.43%	23.59%	7.86%
Kansas City Chiefs	16.31%	26.94%	38.78%	17.97%
Oakland Raiders	2.20%	7.27%	21.02%	69.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	91.17%	7.03%	1.52%	0.28%
New York Giants	4.01%	35.01%	32.32%	28.66%
Washington Redskins	2.52%	29.80%	32.95%	34.73%
Dallas Cowboys	2.30%	28.16%	33.21%	36.33%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	46.75%	31.07%	15.08%	7.10%
Minnesota Vikings	36.54%	33.47%	20.14%	9.85%
Detroit Lions	8.94%	18.47%	32.76%	39.83%
Chicago Bears	7.77%	16.99%	32.02%	43.22%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	48.47%	27.83%	15.99%	7.71%
Carolina Panthers	24.12%	29.26%	27.34%	19.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20.05%	26.74%	30.38%	22.83%
New Orleans Saints	7.36%	16.17%	26.29%	50.18%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	56.11%	26.58%	12.26%	5.05%
St. Louis Rams	28.47%	37.20%	23.01%	11.32%
Arizona Cardinals	9.57%	20.39%	34.74%	35.30%
San Francisco 49ers	5.85%	15.83%	29.99%	48.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	38.43%	19.78%	12.76%	9.05%	6.95%	4.08%	3.29%	2.07%	1.24%	1.07%	0.59%	0.33%	0.13%	0.16%	0.07%	—
Indianapolis Colts	18.20%	18.82%	15.38%	12.32%	9.11%	7.02%	5.05%	4.07%	3.25%	2.38%	1.74%	1.06%	0.69%	0.47%	0.28%	0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.79%	13.25%	14.26%	12.98%	10.07%	9.05%	6.83%	6.10%	4.80%	3.10%	2.43%	1.91%	1.44%	0.96%	0.67%	0.36%
Denver Broncos	7.97%	12.57%	12.35%	11.91%	10.36%	9.46%	8.32%	6.76%	5.64%	4.61%	3.31%	2.66%	1.79%	1.14%	0.88%	0.27%
New York Jets	7.80%	8.49%	9.12%	10.11%	11.42%	10.66%	9.23%	7.63%	6.70%	5.26%	4.41%	3.44%	2.26%	1.85%	1.07%	0.55%
Baltimore Ravens	4.64%	7.15%	8.89%	9.21%	9.88%	9.96%	10.34%	9.63%	7.69%	5.86%	5.08%	4.01%	3.21%	2.09%	1.48%	0.88%
San Diego Chargers	4.52%	7.76%	9.24%	9.62%	9.37%	9.87%	9.08%	8.56%	7.55%	6.81%	5.66%	4.06%	2.86%	2.33%	1.72%	0.99%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.80%	3.42%	4.40%	5.68%	6.33%	7.12%	7.91%	8.43%	9.08%	9.08%	9.08%	7.93%	7.01%	5.31%	4.38%	3.04%
Tennessee Titans	1.43%	2.67%	4.28%	5.16%	6.20%	7.39%	8.22%	8.91%	9.21%	9.66%	8.80%	7.71%	6.18%	5.98%	4.51%	3.69%
Buffalo Bills	1.82%	2.01%	3.19%	4.38%	6.19%	6.79%	8.29%	8.63%	9.61%	9.98%	9.46%	8.42%	7.20%	6.26%	4.67%	3.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.84%	1.78%	2.69%	3.54%	5.00%	6.30%	6.65%	7.89%	8.12%	8.96%	9.18%	9.34%	8.69%	8.58%	6.86%	5.58%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.17%	0.69%	1.02%	1.73%	2.23%	3.03%	4.02%	4.73%	6.03%	7.49%	9.94%	11.66%	11.49%	11.06%	11.99%	12.72%
Houston Texans	0.24%	0.61%	0.97%	1.58%	2.17%	3.08%	3.96%	5.48%	6.36%	7.49%	8.64%	9.71%	11.69%	12.38%	13.43%	12.21%
Miami Dolphins	0.22%	0.40%	0.66%	1.20%	2.15%	2.82%	3.69%	4.77%	6.08%	7.65%	8.02%	9.57%	13.09%	14.25%	13.33%	12.10%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%	0.33%	0.42%	0.72%	1.37%	1.79%	2.67%	3.17%	4.90%	5.68%	6.80%	8.83%	11.61%	14.90%	17.19%	19.54%
Cleveland Browns	0.05%	0.27%	0.37%	0.81%	1.20%	1.58%	2.45%	3.17%	3.74%	4.92%	6.86%	9.36%	10.66%	12.28%	17.47%	24.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	53.54%	20.83%	10.70%	6.00%	2.93%	1.93%	1.47%	0.99%	0.66%	0.39%	0.23%	0.14%	0.07%	0.06%	0.06%	—
Green Bay Packers	10.99%	15.25%	14.02%	11.27%	9.23%	7.82%	7.15%	5.82%	4.80%	3.30%	3.09%	2.29%	1.94%	1.38%	1.08%	0.57%
Atlanta Falcons	7.79%	13.81%	13.69%	12.32%	9.80%	8.22%	7.10%	6.04%	4.79%	3.76%	3.81%	2.70%	2.54%	1.80%	1.17%	0.66%
Seattle Seahawks	6.43%	11.62%	13.34%	12.17%	10.08%	8.62%	7.45%	6.81%	5.49%	4.25%	4.01%	3.04%	2.48%	1.65%	1.53%	1.03%
Minnesota Vikings	9.00%	11.80%	11.02%	10.70%	10.08%	8.51%	7.55%	6.48%	5.53%	4.56%	4.08%	3.31%	2.84%	2.12%	1.61%	0.81%
Carolina Panthers	2.87%	5.79%	6.74%	8.03%	8.58%	8.15%	7.67%	7.49%	7.68%	7.53%	6.41%	6.09%	5.20%	4.60%	4.06%	3.11%
St. Louis Rams	1.67%	4.90%	6.69%	8.05%	8.07%	8.77%	8.56%	9.03%	7.59%	6.87%	7.05%	6.47%	5.18%	4.24%	3.69%	3.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.17%	4.91%	6.15%	7.11%	7.82%	7.73%	7.57%	7.44%	8.00%	7.81%	6.93%	6.45%	6.03%	5.62%	4.43%	3.83%
New York Giants	0.98%	1.57%	2.29%	3.64%	5.51%	6.67%	7.41%	7.61%	8.31%	7.95%	8.08%	8.52%	8.67%	8.47%	7.31%	7.01%
Detroit Lions	1.14%	2.46%	3.12%	3.86%	5.34%	5.77%	5.80%	6.67%	7.27%	8.22%	8.70%	8.83%	8.42%	8.97%	8.68%	6.75%
Chicago Bears	1.12%	1.93%	2.86%	3.55%	4.46%	5.60%	5.93%	6.40%	7.63%	8.40%	8.22%	8.76%	8.81%	9.29%	9.15%	7.89%
Washington Redskins	0.55%	1.07%	1.96%	3.08%	3.86%	5.01%	6.57%	7.13%	6.90%	8.21%	8.90%	8.75%	8.50%	9.42%	10.01%	10.08%
Dallas Cowboys	0.58%	0.93%	1.86%	2.85%	4.49%	5.19%	6.01%	6.35%	7.08%	7.89%	8.56%	8.49%	9.30%	9.39%	10.74%	10.29%
New Orleans Saints	0.51%	1.55%	2.19%	3.18%	3.97%	4.91%	5.29%	5.70%	6.69%	7.49%	7.13%	8.39%	10.21%	11.08%	11.00%	10.71%
Arizona Cardinals	0.51%	1.11%	2.26%	2.55%	3.47%	3.93%	5.00%	5.35%	6.33%	7.26%	8.11%	9.17%	9.62%	10.13%	11.22%	13.98%
San Francisco 49ers	0.15%	0.47%	1.11%	1.64%	2.31%	3.17%	3.47%	4.69%	5.25%	6.11%	6.69%	8.60%	10.19%	11.78%	14.26%	20.11%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Philadelphia Eagles	27.10%	21.05%	10.87%	10.73%	6.09%	5.83%	3.85%	3.46%	2.09%	1.88%	1.19%	1.13%	0.99%	0.78%	0.52%	0.62%	0.30%	0.43%	0.21%	0.27%	0.13%	0.14%	0.08%	0.07%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	—	—
New England Patriots	24.87%	16.77%	12.53%	7.81%	7.53%	5.46%	5.00%	3.70%	3.42%	2.37%	1.78%	1.62%	1.66%	1.07%	0.90%	0.68%	0.56%	0.57%	0.45%	0.34%	0.20%	0.21%	0.12%	0.09%	0.10%	0.06%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	10.63%	10.27%	11.50%	8.86%	8.49%	6.44%	6.66%	5.13%	4.78%	3.59%	3.87%	2.93%	2.62%	1.90%	1.79%	1.66%	1.70%	1.28%	1.25%	0.73%	0.84%	0.84%	0.46%	0.46%	0.37%	0.18%	0.24%	0.25%	0.10%	0.08%	0.08%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.99%	6.56%	8.04%	7.06%	8.25%	6.88%	6.68%	5.46%	5.26%	4.46%	4.39%	4.10%	3.51%	2.86%	2.78%	2.67%	2.44%	1.95%	1.50%	1.20%	1.25%	1.13%	1.04%	0.61%	0.71%	0.57%	0.51%	0.35%	0.28%	0.24%	0.20%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	4.20%	5.77%	7.57%	6.32%	7.18%	5.99%	6.77%	5.07%	5.72%	4.64%	4.94%	3.85%	4.61%	3.65%	3.25%	2.51%	2.91%	2.27%	2.35%	1.59%	1.47%	1.43%	1.41%	1.07%	0.83%	0.67%	0.59%	0.52%	0.37%	0.27%	0.14%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	3.70%	5.86%	5.90%	7.29%	6.19%	6.92%	5.36%	5.90%	4.74%	5.27%	4.24%	4.44%	3.70%	3.86%	3.25%	3.16%	2.39%	2.65%	2.09%	2.18%	1.77%	1.50%	1.29%	1.29%	1.00%	1.00%	0.86%	0.64%	0.58%	0.54%	0.28%	0.16%
New York Jets	4.09%	4.82%	5.09%	5.28%	5.55%	4.98%	6.16%	5.23%	6.17%	4.82%	4.95%	4.61%	5.02%	3.84%	3.40%	3.02%	3.43%	3.01%	2.81%	1.90%	1.98%	1.75%	1.69%	1.45%	0.98%	0.90%	0.99%	0.82%	0.46%	0.40%	0.29%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	2.66%	4.37%	5.04%	6.50%	5.96%	6.80%	5.11%	6.24%	5.11%	5.62%	4.48%	4.51%	3.35%	4.18%	3.57%	3.47%	2.67%	2.52%	2.28%	2.00%	2.28%	1.95%	1.47%	1.48%	1.35%	1.26%	1.03%	0.87%	0.70%	0.61%	0.34%	0.22%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	4.17%	4.60%	5.97%	4.36%	5.98%	4.85%	5.72%	4.93%	5.70%	4.19%	4.63%	3.39%	4.15%	3.65%	3.57%	3.08%	3.01%	2.37%	2.69%	2.26%	2.39%	1.63%	1.60%	1.69%	1.47%	1.30%	1.04%	0.88%	0.77%	0.49%	0.26%
Seattle Seahawks	2.32%	3.60%	3.93%	5.46%	5.08%	6.79%	5.04%	6.04%	4.66%	5.94%	4.43%	4.49%	3.85%	4.50%	3.57%	3.83%	2.77%	3.20%	2.63%	2.85%	2.14%	2.12%	1.73%	1.69%	1.45%	1.34%	1.21%	0.84%	0.90%	0.68%	0.48%	0.44%
Baltimore Ravens	2.70%	2.79%	4.29%	3.80%	5.46%	4.64%	5.27%	4.73%	5.41%	4.36%	5.52%	4.77%	5.14%	4.38%	4.72%	3.80%	4.04%	3.32%	2.74%	2.57%	2.78%	2.00%	2.11%	1.65%	1.72%	1.37%	1.08%	0.86%	0.70%	0.62%	0.44%	0.22%
San Diego Chargers	2.10%	3.24%	4.81%	4.86%	5.21%	4.40%	5.42%	4.71%	5.39%	4.34%	5.21%	4.34%	4.86%	3.95%	4.20%	3.62%	3.94%	3.45%	3.30%	2.70%	2.53%	2.39%	1.90%	1.80%	1.52%	1.35%	1.30%	0.82%	0.88%	0.63%	0.58%	0.25%
Carolina Panthers	0.68%	1.54%	1.99%	2.54%	2.48%	3.56%	3.27%	3.94%	4.00%	4.65%	3.96%	3.97%	3.55%	4.45%	3.99%	4.26%	3.48%	3.93%	3.86%	4.31%	3.75%	3.53%	3.01%	3.29%	2.87%	2.84%	2.29%	2.46%	2.09%	2.26%	1.73%	1.47%
St. Louis Rams	0.47%	0.86%	1.37%	2.23%	2.65%	3.21%	3.21%	3.80%	3.41%	4.33%	3.76%	4.55%	3.95%	4.96%	4.50%	4.63%	3.51%	4.29%	4.01%	4.40%	3.64%	3.68%	2.96%	3.65%	2.76%	2.79%	2.74%	2.54%	2.13%	2.04%	1.59%	1.38%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.70%	1.36%	2.07%	1.90%	2.72%	2.63%	3.47%	2.64%	3.84%	3.11%	4.08%	3.66%	4.43%	3.49%	4.21%	4.05%	4.71%	4.23%	4.65%	3.56%	4.34%	4.00%	4.16%	3.34%	3.22%	3.19%	2.36%	2.82%	2.33%	1.94%	1.53%	1.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.65%	1.13%	1.70%	2.25%	2.22%	2.97%	3.20%	3.41%	3.50%	4.23%	3.79%	3.75%	3.51%	4.31%	3.75%	4.20%	3.90%	4.23%	3.79%	4.58%	3.58%	3.63%	3.20%	3.56%	3.26%	3.21%	3.02%	2.96%	2.41%	2.14%	2.11%	1.85%
Tennessee Titans	0.67%	0.98%	1.54%	1.77%	2.65%	2.42%	2.87%	3.21%	3.36%	2.88%	4.10%	3.78%	4.58%	3.81%	4.36%	4.28%	4.67%	4.55%	4.12%	4.30%	4.40%	4.14%	4.17%	3.34%	2.95%	2.79%	2.95%	2.76%	2.26%	1.94%	1.82%	1.58%
Buffalo Bills	0.73%	1.10%	1.42%	1.40%	1.98%	2.02%	2.90%	3.03%	3.68%	2.91%	3.70%	4.17%	4.62%	3.73%	4.08%	4.12%	5.18%	4.53%	4.77%	3.98%	4.13%	4.17%	4.28%	3.65%	3.93%	3.00%	3.46%	2.32%	2.31%	1.86%	1.69%	1.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.38%	0.59%	1.02%	1.14%	1.71%	1.47%	2.17%	2.13%	3.01%	2.45%	3.53%	3.19%	3.71%	2.91%	4.20%	3.73%	4.72%	3.47%	4.44%	3.51%	4.68%	4.56%	4.40%	4.59%	4.30%	4.06%	4.09%	4.01%	3.31%	3.29%	2.95%	2.28%
Detroit Lions	0.24%	0.56%	0.71%	1.19%	1.18%	1.48%	1.43%	2.16%	2.19%	2.93%	2.35%	2.97%	2.59%	3.45%	3.33%	3.70%	3.19%	3.80%	3.95%	4.56%	4.20%	4.58%	4.52%	4.55%	4.10%	4.63%	4.73%	4.52%	4.55%	4.58%	3.90%	3.18%
New York Giants	0.14%	0.44%	0.60%	0.80%	1.01%	1.18%	1.41%	1.88%	1.80%	2.74%	2.80%	3.10%	2.96%	4.15%	3.61%	4.26%	3.40%	4.35%	4.20%	4.74%	3.65%	4.66%	3.84%	4.70%	4.63%	4.59%	4.60%	4.50%	4.02%	3.98%	3.58%	3.68%
Chicago Bears	0.25%	0.57%	0.68%	0.95%	1.07%	1.35%	1.31%	1.92%	1.79%	2.50%	2.36%	2.84%	2.61%	3.17%	3.31%	3.43%	3.57%	3.78%	3.89%	4.63%	4.27%	4.16%	4.69%	4.53%	4.71%	4.63%	4.69%	4.73%	4.68%	4.67%	4.13%	4.13%
Washington Redskins	0.05%	0.26%	0.36%	0.53%	0.62%	1.02%	1.17%	1.49%	1.54%	2.10%	1.96%	2.56%	2.45%	3.18%	3.21%	4.14%	2.89%	3.66%	3.99%	4.45%	4.19%	4.62%	4.51%	5.28%	4.22%	4.89%	4.65%	5.08%	5.29%	5.10%	4.81%	5.73%
Dallas Cowboys	0.07%	0.25%	0.36%	0.49%	0.67%	0.85%	1.10%	1.48%	1.49%	2.24%	2.16%	2.70%	2.33%	3.34%	2.98%	3.59%	2.89%	3.47%	3.81%	4.73%	3.80%	4.56%	4.47%	4.78%	4.70%	4.81%	4.69%	5.03%	5.59%	5.58%	5.62%	5.37%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%	0.22%	0.45%	0.71%	0.84%	0.90%	1.01%	1.66%	1.54%	2.35%	2.00%	2.48%	2.35%	3.01%	2.51%	3.16%	3.25%	3.61%	3.34%	4.14%	4.08%	3.96%	4.20%	4.18%	4.66%	5.37%	5.52%	5.93%	5.43%	5.89%	5.20%	5.95%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.21%	0.30%	0.65%	0.61%	0.97%	0.93%	1.32%	1.43%	1.69%	1.81%	1.82%	1.97%	2.63%	2.54%	2.60%	2.91%	3.30%	3.80%	3.81%	4.03%	4.37%	3.99%	4.87%	4.96%	5.37%	4.85%	5.84%	5.73%	6.09%	6.95%	7.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.20%	0.30%	0.36%	0.58%	0.75%	1.03%	0.92%	1.16%	1.26%	1.70%	1.83%	2.14%	1.94%	2.63%	2.52%	3.26%	3.40%	3.54%	3.78%	5.07%	4.74%	5.64%	4.95%	5.58%	5.58%	5.42%	5.57%	5.92%	5.81%	6.39%	6.00%
Houston Texans	0.10%	0.13%	0.40%	0.30%	0.63%	0.56%	0.97%	1.00%	1.25%	1.15%	1.97%	1.83%	2.48%	1.95%	2.80%	2.53%	3.57%	3.03%	4.00%	3.43%	4.34%	4.33%	4.84%	4.74%	5.38%	5.67%	6.03%	5.79%	6.16%	6.57%	6.05%	6.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.09%	0.12%	0.23%	0.29%	0.35%	0.46%	0.90%	0.92%	1.27%	1.09%	1.64%	1.69%	2.40%	2.05%	2.73%	2.29%	3.50%	3.52%	3.48%	3.43%	3.76%	4.22%	5.05%	4.98%	5.95%	6.14%	6.29%	6.49%	6.41%	6.41%	6.09%	5.76%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.08%	0.10%	0.15%	0.25%	0.51%	0.53%	0.82%	0.66%	1.13%	1.07%	1.61%	1.49%	2.10%	2.02%	2.34%	2.03%	2.79%	2.98%	3.40%	3.19%	3.56%	3.79%	4.84%	4.94%	5.88%	5.57%	6.15%	7.41%	8.12%	9.25%	11.23%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.05%	0.12%	0.22%	0.28%	0.33%	0.48%	0.40%	0.73%	0.63%	1.23%	1.10%	1.63%	1.16%	1.87%	1.95%	2.85%	2.39%	3.07%	2.73%	3.57%	3.32%	4.72%	4.44%	5.78%	5.40%	6.79%	7.11%	7.65%	8.28%	9.59%	10.10%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.08%	0.11%	0.19%	0.15%	0.25%	0.47%	0.48%	0.67%	0.64%	0.84%	0.98%	1.55%	1.09%	1.77%	1.61%	2.29%	2.01%	2.33%	2.51%	3.70%	3.36%	4.63%	4.48%	5.31%	4.97%	6.06%	6.29%	8.44%	8.59%	11.70%	12.45%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	38.43%	18.37%	10.44%	5.21%	12.67%	5.53%	9.35%
Indianapolis Colts	18.20%	20.22%	17.77%	16.04%	4.73%	5.32%	17.72%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.79%	14.07%	17.01%	16.84%	6.41%	6.87%	27.01%
Denver Broncos	7.97%	13.22%	13.22%	13.96%	7.63%	8.63%	35.37%
New York Jets	7.80%	6.09%	4.18%	2.35%	21.76%	13.72%	44.10%
Baltimore Ravens	4.64%	7.43%	9.78%	10.44%	8.82%	9.54%	49.35%
San Diego Chargers	4.52%	8.11%	10.06%	10.43%	7.51%	9.55%	49.82%
Buffalo Bills	1.82%	1.56%	1.50%	1.01%	8.51%	8.24%	77.36%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.80%	3.67%	4.77%	6.07%	5.25%	7.04%	71.40%
Tennessee Titans	1.43%	2.91%	4.43%	5.15%	5.77%	7.43%	72.88%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.84%	1.90%	2.84%	4.34%	4.17%	5.99%	79.92%
Houston Texans	0.24%	0.66%	1.13%	1.90%	1.69%	3.18%	91.20%
Miami Dolphins	0.22%	0.35%	0.33%	0.34%	2.32%	3.20%	93.24%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.17%	0.76%	1.32%	2.95%	1.54%	2.61%	90.65%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%	0.36%	0.66%	1.10%	0.76%	1.72%	95.32%
Cleveland Browns	0.05%	0.32%	0.56%	1.87%	0.46%	1.43%	95.31%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	53.54%	21.12%	11.32%	5.19%	3.20%	1.72%	3.91%
Green Bay Packers	10.99%	14.94%	13.14%	7.68%	12.64%	8.75%	31.86%
Minnesota Vikings	9.00%	11.54%	9.77%	6.23%	13.49%	10.11%	39.86%
Atlanta Falcons	7.79%	14.14%	14.46%	12.08%	8.75%	8.48%	34.30%
Seattle Seahawks	6.43%	12.10%	15.48%	22.10%	4.25%	5.24%	34.40%
Carolina Panthers	2.87%	6.04%	7.31%	7.90%	7.63%	8.27%	59.98%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.17%	5.04%	6.39%	6.45%	6.95%	8.19%	64.81%
St. Louis Rams	1.67%	5.10%	7.82%	13.88%	5.14%	6.68%	59.71%
Detroit Lions	1.14%	2.48%	2.73%	2.59%	5.88%	6.04%	79.14%
Chicago Bears	1.12%	1.91%	2.61%	2.13%	4.92%	5.82%	81.49%
New York Giants	0.98%	0.98%	1.22%	0.83%	7.61%	7.89%	80.49%
Dallas Cowboys	0.58%	0.65%	0.60%	0.47%	6.27%	6.36%	85.07%
Washington Redskins	0.55%	0.72%	0.69%	0.56%	6.31%	5.87%	85.30%
New Orleans Saints	0.51%	1.58%	2.32%	2.95%	3.69%	4.75%	84.20%
Arizona Cardinals	0.51%	1.13%	2.68%	5.25%	2.01%	3.33%	85.09%
San Francisco 49ers	0.15%	0.53%	1.46%	3.71%	1.26%	2.50%	90.39%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	80.50%	80.50%	54.66%	33.80%	23.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	91.83%	91.83%	70.58%	51.18%	22.36%
Indianapolis Colts	69.65%	69.65%	41.48%	22.12%	14.65%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.45%	60.45%	37.07%	21.09%	14.40%
Green Bay Packers	53.96%	53.96%	31.36%	14.62%	4.89%
San Diego Chargers	37.55%	34.01%	15.71%	6.74%	4.20%
Atlanta Falcons	48.88%	48.88%	23.42%	9.57%	2.63%
Denver Broncos	43.44%	41.31%	14.67%	4.69%	2.33%
Baltimore Ravens	38.58%	28.63%	10.17%	3.30%	1.61%
New York Jets	42.01%	29.48%	9.62%	3.14%	1.54%
Carolina Panthers	31.11%	27.07%	12.64%	5.40%	1.52%
Buffalo Bills	19.26%	12.39%	5.19%	2.08%	1.17%
Seattle Seahawks	47.07%	43.74%	16.54%	5.34%	1.16%
Minnesota Vikings	39.60%	39.16%	16.00%	5.52%	1.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.13%	15.25%	5.48%	1.80%	0.92%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27.98%	18.47%	6.20%	1.70%	0.40%
St. Louis Rams	33.52%	21.43%	6.73%	1.81%	0.32%
New Orleans Saints	13.71%	8.72%	3.24%	1.25%	0.30%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.42%	3.94%	0.97%	0.27%	0.18%
Washington Redskins	13.43%	6.69%	2.43%	0.88%	0.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars	17.34%	7.76%	1.97%	0.42%	0.16%
New York Giants	17.55%	7.82%	2.41%	0.66%	0.14%
Detroit Lions	17.24%	10.08%	2.87%	0.76%	0.14%
Houston Texans	7.90%	3.34%	0.82%	0.18%	0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	13.70%	5.60%	1.66%	0.50%	0.06%
Chicago Bears	15.48%	7.68%	2.01%	0.45%	0.06%
Tennessee Titans	22.78%	8.90%	1.41%	0.20%	0.05%
Arizona Cardinals	13.27%	6.08%	1.48%	0.26%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	6.19%	1.88%	0.36%	0.09%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders	4.24%	1.15%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	8.93%	2.79%	0.43%	0.10%	—
Cleveland Browns	4.32%	1.36%	0.26%	0.05%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.06%	0.39%	0.29%	2.16%	0.50%	1.11%	1.21%	1.16%	0.48%	1.11%	2.41%	0.26%	1.68%	1.29%	1.45%
Buffalo Bills	1.13%		0.39%	0.19%	1.54%	0.24%	0.89%	0.46%	0.53%	0.09%	0.56%	0.32%	0.15%	1.12%	0.79%	0.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.19%	0.13%		0.04%	0.37%	0.04%	0.21%	0.20%	0.18%	0.08%	0.18%	0.50%	0.11%	0.18%	0.25%	0.35%
Cleveland Browns	0.06%	0.05%			0.10%	0.03%	0.01%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.15%	0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.15%
Denver Broncos	2.64%	1.20%	0.51%	0.29%		0.56%	1.52%	1.27%	1.58%	0.58%	0.78%	3.21%	0.43%	1.08%	2.29%	2.18%
Houston Texans	0.28%	0.12%	0.04%	0.07%	0.34%		0.25%	0.09%	0.15%	0.06%	0.11%	0.41%	0.04%	0.12%	0.21%	0.15%
Indianapolis Colts	3.26%	2.11%	0.88%	0.43%	3.43%	0.80%		2.10%	2.33%	0.87%	1.82%	4.68%	0.59%	1.73%	2.86%	3.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.72%	0.27%	0.08%	0.12%	0.69%	0.08%	0.46%		0.42%	0.12%	0.26%	0.73%	0.14%	0.36%	0.31%	0.26%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.08%	0.40%	0.31%	0.22%	1.37%	0.25%	0.67%	0.78%		0.19%	0.57%	1.25%	0.12%	0.71%	0.73%	1.13%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%		0.07%	0.04%	0.17%	0.01%	0.14%	0.12%	0.11%		0.05%	0.05%	0.05%	0.13%	0.10%	0.07%
New England Patriots	2.97%	1.12%	0.71%	0.45%	2.91%	0.59%	1.91%	1.22%	1.63%	0.56%		3.19%	0.40%	2.09%	2.00%	1.95%
New York Jets	1.88%	0.15%	0.56%	0.37%	2.31%	0.40%	1.43%	1.08%	1.14%	0.17%	1.01%		0.41%	1.46%	1.64%	1.58%
Oakland Raiders	0.11%	0.03%		0.03%	0.07%	0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%		0.03%	0.04%	0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.84%	2.25%	0.79%	0.48%	3.89%	1.10%	1.91%	1.89%	2.32%	0.87%	2.19%	5.56%	0.44%		3.17%	2.89%
San Diego Chargers	2.09%	1.07%	0.56%	0.19%	3.33%	0.69%	1.76%	1.45%	1.43%	0.62%	1.22%	3.15%	0.26%	1.55%		2.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.57%	0.29%	0.12%	0.12%	0.64%	0.13%	0.32%	0.29%	0.30%	0.15%	0.17%	0.72%	0.10%	0.23%	0.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.35%	0.27%	0.35%	0.24%	0.17%	0.43%	0.62%	0.19%	0.25%	0.07%	0.13%	0.49%	0.29%	0.45%	0.14%
Atlanta Falcons	1.20%		2.27%	1.81%	1.39%	1.61%	2.39%	2.84%	1.03%	1.39%	0.59%	0.83%	3.05%	2.41%	2.83%	1.31%
Carolina Panthers	0.92%	2.28%		0.91%	0.70%	1.04%	1.43%	2.03%	0.62%	0.90%	0.44%	0.61%	2.36%	2.02%	1.22%	0.68%
Chicago Bears	0.25%	0.47%	0.26%		0.20%	0.20%	0.33%	0.38%	0.12%	0.27%	0.14%	0.15%	0.66%	0.67%	0.37%	0.18%
Dallas Cowboys	0.23%	0.46%	0.27%	0.25%		0.15%	0.32%	0.42%	0.18%	0.04%	0.21%	0.19%	0.77%	0.51%	0.34%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	0.37%	0.75%	0.54%	0.18%	0.23%		0.42%	0.52%	0.19%	0.35%	0.18%	0.29%	0.80%	0.72%	0.66%	0.26%
Green Bay Packers	1.07%	2.39%	1.84%	1.38%	1.48%	1.34%		3.97%	1.09%	1.69%	0.63%	1.05%	3.69%	2.85%	2.47%	1.09%
Minnesota Vikings	0.92%	2.02%	1.27%	0.99%	0.76%	0.87%	1.85%		0.66%	0.99%	0.44%	0.78%	2.53%	2.11%	1.65%	0.78%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.57%	0.29%	0.41%	0.27%	0.33%	0.48%	0.78%		0.34%	0.16%	0.29%	0.96%	0.77%	0.43%	0.23%
New York Giants	0.35%	0.58%	0.40%	0.20%	0.04%	0.26%	0.44%	0.55%	0.16%		0.21%	0.24%	1.09%	0.68%	0.60%	0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.58%	1.42%	1.41%	1.01%	0.94%	1.16%	1.46%	2.10%	0.63%	1.37%		0.47%	1.14%	1.36%	1.32%	0.80%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	0.17%	0.14%	0.14%	0.12%	0.17%	0.25%	0.19%	0.11%	0.10%	0.04%		0.17%	0.16%	0.17%	0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	1.05%	2.31%	1.88%	1.55%	1.49%	1.56%	1.83%	3.16%	1.00%	2.01%	0.41%	0.69%		2.49%	2.54%	1.24%
St. Louis Rams	0.53%	1.28%	1.11%	0.86%	0.80%	0.94%	1.15%	1.71%	0.58%	1.19%	0.27%	0.36%	1.83%		1.35%	0.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.58%	1.14%	0.59%	0.59%	0.64%	0.73%	0.93%	1.19%	0.34%	0.71%	0.30%	0.54%	1.44%	1.17%		0.37%
Washington Redskins	0.42%	0.63%	0.41%	0.20%	0.03%	0.25%	0.47%	0.52%	0.18%	0.09%	0.17%	0.20%	0.88%	0.65%	0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.33%	0.08%	0.03%	1.50%	0.06%	2.05%	0.34%	0.52%	0.08%	1.87%	0.88%	0.08%	0.87%	1.03%	0.45%
Buffalo Bills	0.43%		0.05%	0.02%	0.67%	0.05%	0.77%	0.09%	0.16%	0.02%	1.24%	0.51%	0.03%	0.59%	0.40%	0.16%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%	0.04%		0.01%	0.18%	0.03%	0.11%	0.04%	0.05%		0.24%	0.10%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%				0.05%	0.01%	0.07%	0.01%	0.02%		0.05%	0.01%			0.02%
Denver Broncos	1.91%	0.44%	0.34%	0.20%		0.26%	2.95%	0.60%	0.41%	0.08%	2.31%	1.43%	0.03%	2.08%	0.86%	0.77%
Houston Texans	0.13%	0.01%	0.02%		0.19%		0.10%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.12%	0.04%		0.08%	0.06%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	4.34%	1.57%	0.70%	0.29%	6.83%	0.23%		0.86%	2.63%	0.35%	6.64%	4.03%	0.26%	7.06%	4.71%	0.98%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.27%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.26%	0.01%	0.26%		0.08%	0.01%	0.36%	0.15%	0.01%	0.22%	0.19%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.47%	0.22%	0.10%	0.04%	0.49%	0.10%	1.02%	0.18%		0.05%	1.11%	0.53%	0.01%	0.66%	0.19%	0.31%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%				0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.04%		0.08%	0.01%		0.06%	0.04%	0.05%
New England Patriots	5.53%	2.71%	1.02%	0.29%	7.46%	0.79%	8.50%	1.68%	2.76%	0.49%		7.22%	0.26%	8.16%	5.83%	1.96%
New York Jets	0.93%	0.14%	0.08%	0.06%	1.41%	0.16%	1.35%	0.33%	0.55%	0.06%	2.25%		0.02%	0.97%	0.85%	0.46%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.01%			0.02%		0.04%	0.01%			0.01%	0.03%		0.01%		0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	1.06%	0.28%	0.08%	5.88%	0.60%	7.79%	1.11%	2.06%	0.20%	6.59%	3.33%	0.24%		3.92%	1.50%
San Diego Chargers	1.76%	0.56%	0.22%	0.05%	1.43%	0.22%	2.99%	0.47%	0.37%	0.15%	2.81%	1.54%	0.04%	2.34%		0.76%
Tennessee Titans	0.15%	0.06%	0.04%		0.24%		0.15%	0.05%	0.09%	0.02%	0.16%	0.05%		0.23%	0.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.27%	0.11%	0.03%		0.06%	0.20%	0.15%	0.01%	0.03%	0.33%		0.07%	0.03%	0.19%
Atlanta Falcons	0.54%		1.20%	0.75%	0.48%	1.04%	3.54%	3.51%	0.37%	0.54%	3.68%	0.39%	4.06%	1.99%	0.93%	0.40%
Carolina Panthers	0.24%	1.19%		0.38%	0.19%	0.57%	1.93%	2.02%	0.14%	0.33%	2.29%	0.11%	1.95%	0.77%	0.42%	0.11%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	0.29%	0.19%		0.06%	0.01%	0.17%	0.18%	0.04%	0.04%	0.32%	0.02%	0.32%	0.18%	0.13%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys		0.22%	0.08%	0.01%		0.06%	0.20%	0.22%	0.02%	0.02%	0.41%	0.03%	0.19%	0.10%	0.09%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.05%	0.49%	0.16%	0.04%	0.02%		0.26%	0.23%	0.06%	0.03%	0.43%	0.05%	0.49%	0.21%	0.27%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	0.84%	5.15%	2.44%	0.56%	0.45%	0.75%		3.75%	1.04%	0.74%	4.79%	0.30%	5.33%	2.43%	2.25%	0.54%
Minnesota Vikings	0.45%	2.79%	1.19%	0.41%	0.32%	0.44%	1.54%		0.34%	0.34%	2.31%	0.27%	2.62%	1.48%	1.17%	0.33%
New Orleans Saints	0.09%	0.23%	0.12%	0.14%	0.04%	0.14%	0.44%	0.37%		0.06%	0.73%	0.05%	0.55%	0.16%	0.07%	0.05%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.29%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.11%	0.24%	0.31%	0.06%		0.56%	0.05%	0.29%	0.12%	0.11%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.84%	10.07%	6.48%	2.26%	1.78%	2.54%	9.18%	7.56%	2.72%	2.56%		0.90%	9.63%	6.15%	4.76%	2.15%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.11%	0.02%		0.08%		0.03%		0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	2.48%	1.45%	0.59%	0.31%	0.80%	2.68%	2.29%	0.44%	0.33%	2.68%	0.08%		0.54%	1.31%	0.36%
St. Louis Rams	0.06%	1.07%	0.53%	0.20%	0.09%	0.34%	0.95%	1.14%	0.12%	0.16%	1.08%		0.46%		0.44%	0.09%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.54%	0.25%	0.16%	0.12%	0.25%	0.99%	1.00%	0.08%	0.15%	1.01%	0.09%	0.91%	0.41%		0.07%
Washington Redskins	0.05%	0.35%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.09%	0.25%	0.32%	0.02%	0.08%	0.55%	0.02%	0.30%	0.13%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.12%	0.02%	0.01%	0.34%		0.67%	0.05%	0.12%		0.96%	0.31%		0.33%	0.34%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%		0.04%	0.01%	0.20%	0.01%	0.53%	0.03%	0.08%		0.38%	0.05%		0.35%	0.22%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.02%			0.02%		0.08%		0.03%		0.04%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns									0.03%		0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	0.25%	0.07%	0.01%		0.05%	0.96%	0.08%	0.09%	0.03%	1.30%	0.43%	0.01%	0.81%	0.22%	0.06%
Houston Texans		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%		0.02%				0.08%			0.02%		0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.64%	0.84%	0.16%	0.09%	2.22%	0.05%		0.21%	0.89%	0.05%	7.61%	1.79%	0.02%	4.29%	2.11%	0.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%	0.01%					0.05%		0.05%		0.09%	0.04%		0.09%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.10%	0.10%	0.01%		0.09%	0.02%	0.38%	0.01%		0.02%	0.38%	0.16%		0.38%	0.15%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%				0.01%		0.03%				0.01%			0.01%	0.02%
New England Patriots	2.85%	0.78%	0.19%	0.07%	4.19%	0.32%	9.72%	0.63%	1.19%	0.09%		1.62%	0.07%	7.79%	3.79%	0.50%
New York Jets	0.25%	0.05%			0.37%	0.01%	0.69%	0.05%	0.18%		0.56%			0.58%	0.29%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders											0.02%					0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.99%	0.78%	0.12%	0.01%	2.11%	0.15%	4.77%	0.39%	0.87%	0.05%	7.09%	1.67%	0.03%		1.78%	0.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.46%	0.13%	0.08%	0.01%	0.39%	0.03%	1.44%	0.10%	0.13%	0.03%	2.27%	0.38%		1.26%		0.03%
Tennessee Titans	0.03%	0.01%			0.02%		0.02%		0.02%		0.05%	0.01%		0.03%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.04%	0.01%		0.05%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.14%		0.37%	0.10%	0.13%	0.20%	1.55%	0.98%	0.17%	0.22%	3.91%	0.05%	1.00%	0.34%	0.25%	0.16%
Carolina Panthers	0.07%	0.31%		0.09%	0.07%	0.08%	0.67%	0.51%	0.05%	0.12%	2.31%	0.02%	0.59%	0.23%	0.19%	0.09%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%		0.02%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.16%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.09%	0.05%				0.08%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%	0.07%	0.01%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.07%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%	0.27%		0.10%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.23%	1.88%	1.14%	0.14%	0.16%	0.19%		0.89%	0.32%	0.33%	6.38%	0.06%	1.46%	0.60%	0.61%	0.23%
Minnesota Vikings	0.10%	0.99%	0.35%	0.02%	0.13%	0.04%	0.62%		0.11%	0.09%	2.10%		0.43%	0.21%	0.25%	0.08%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.11%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.20%	0.11%		0.01%	0.41%	0.01%	0.12%	0.07%	0.03%	0.04%
New York Giants		0.08%	0.05%	0.01%			0.13%	0.02%			0.15%		0.10%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.57%	9.20%	4.54%	1.04%	0.48%	1.32%	11.85%	6.80%	1.10%	0.78%		0.14%	6.95%	3.06%	2.72%	0.63%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%		0.01%			0.03%	0.02%			0.02%					0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.59%	0.42%	0.07%	0.09%	0.08%	0.81%	0.58%	0.13%	0.08%	1.93%	0.02%		0.15%	0.24%	0.12%
St. Louis Rams		0.16%	0.14%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.30%	0.16%	0.04%	0.03%	0.74%		0.08%		0.04%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.11%	0.03%		0.01%	0.05%	0.28%	0.16%	0.01%	0.04%	0.68%		0.19%	0.09%		0.05%
Washington Redskins	0.03%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.09%	0.10%	0.08%	0.02%	0.02%	0.22%		0.07%	0.01%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%							0.01%				0.01%					0.01%			0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.11%	0.12%			0.01%			0.12%			0.01%	0.61%	0.03%	0.01%			0.77%			0.16%			0.50%	0.18%
Baltimore Ravens	0.01%	0.10%			0.09%	0.01%			0.02%		0.02%	0.29%						0.14%		0.03%	0.01%			0.63%			0.02%	0.15%	0.03%	0.04%		0.02%
Buffalo Bills		0.15%			0.08%	0.01%			0.01%			0.14%						0.09%		0.01%	0.01%			0.54%				0.07%	0.03%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers			0.05%	0.03%						0.12%				0.43%		0.01%			0.43%			0.07%			0.30%	0.08%
Chicago Bears										0.01%				0.03%					0.01%						0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.03%			0.03%				0.01%			0.01%						0.01%						0.07%				0.01%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys															0.01%				0.02%						0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos		0.21%			0.14%	0.03%			0.02%		0.02%	0.46%						0.15%		0.02%	0.02%			0.96%				0.16%	0.04%	0.07%		0.03%
Detroit Lions			0.01%							0.01%				0.04%					0.03%			0.02%			0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.18%	0.16%				0.01%		0.43%			0.01%	1.02%	0.03%	0.22%	0.02%		1.42%			0.25%			0.77%	0.32%					0.05%
Houston Texans		0.02%							0.01%									0.01%						0.04%						0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.08%	1.56%			0.87%	0.12%			0.09%		0.21%	2.24%						1.01%		0.27%	0.12%			6.25%			0.03%	0.93%	0.38%	0.34%		0.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.01%			0.01%							0.01%												0.11%				0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.13%			0.09%						0.02%	0.10%						0.08%			0.01%			0.39%				0.04%	0.05%			0.01%
Miami Dolphins		0.01%																						0.01%						0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.04%	0.03%						0.03%			0.01%	0.25%	0.02%	0.04%			0.37%			0.03%			0.17%	0.14%
New England Patriots	0.05%	2.55%			1.44%	0.10%			0.15%		0.19%	3.44%						1.63%		0.29%	0.25%			10.40%			0.02%	1.53%	0.59%	0.41%		0.27%
New Orleans Saints			0.02%	0.02%			0.01%							0.08%		0.02%			0.07%						0.06%	0.02%
New York Giants			0.01%	0.01%										0.03%					0.01%			0.01%			0.06%	0.01%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.19%			0.09%	0.01%			0.01%		0.01%	0.14%						0.14%		0.01%				0.78%				0.08%	0.04%	0.02%		0.01%
Oakland Raiders																												0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			1.14%	0.48%			0.06%	0.04%		1.44%			0.05%	4.55%	0.15%	0.48%	0.04%		6.76%			0.96%	0.01%		4.52%	1.59%					0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.03%	1.59%			0.73%	0.09%			0.08%		0.14%	2.14%						0.85%		0.22%	0.04%			6.80%			0.03%	0.94%	0.27%	0.28%		0.17%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.39%			0.31%	0.02%			0.04%		0.01%	0.75%						0.28%		0.09%	0.06%			1.83%				0.24%	0.06%	0.06%		0.04%
Seattle Seahawks			0.07%	0.06%						0.11%				0.22%	0.01%	0.09%			0.32%			0.03%			0.11%	0.14%
St. Louis Rams			0.02%							0.03%				0.05%					0.14%			0.02%			0.05%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.03%				0.01%			0.02%				0.11%					0.06%			0.03%	0.01%		0.10%	0.02%					0.01%
Tennessee Titans												0.01%								0.01%				0.01%				0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins										0.03%				0.04%	0.01%	0.01%			0.07%			0.01%			0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	70.16%	38.98%	25.42%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	81.01%	57.32%	23.19%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New England Patriots	100.00%	62.18%	32.65%	22.12%	Won Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	75.91%	30.68%	15.67%	10.45%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	73.34%	40.80%	17.25%	5.75%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
San Diego Chargers	68.96%	23.08%	8.62%	4.99%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	48.79%	15.26%	3.88%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	63.08%	15.65%	5.17%	1.24%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	31.04%	7.57%	2.21%	0.96%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	24.09%	6.33%	1.87%	0.92%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	26.66%	5.51%	2.71%	0.63%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Rams	36.92%	8.24%	2.29%	0.45%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos		24.09%
Indianapolis Colts	75.91%
New York Jets				31.04%
San Diego Chargers			68.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Green Bay Packers		73.34%
Minnesota Vikings	26.66%
Seattle Seahawks				63.08%
St. Louis Rams			36.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos					6.33%
Indianapolis Colts			30.68%
New England Patriots		45.23%		5.94%		11.01%
New York Jets			1.93%		5.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.76%			17.53%		34.87%
San Diego Chargers			5.21%		17.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons		32.54%			9.84%	6.41%
Green Bay Packers	40.80%
Minnesota Vikings				5.51%
Philadelphia Eagles			21.15%		37.59%	22.27%
Seattle Seahawks	6.76%			8.89%
St. Louis Rams	3.65%			4.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos			1.17%	0.17%		0.53%
Indianapolis Colts				1.80%	9.25%	4.62%
New England Patriots	3.22%			2.32%	20.23%	6.88%
New York Jets	0.30%	0.59%	0.93%		0.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers		11.70%	23.78%	1.07%		2.43%
San Diego Chargers	0.94%	2.72%	3.65%		1.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons			1.81%	9.83%	2.25%	1.37%
Green Bay Packers				12.00%	3.36%	1.89%
Minnesota Vikings	1.68%				0.67%	0.36%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.42%	21.37%			4.20%	2.33%
Seattle Seahawks	1.77%	1.51%	0.67%	1.22%
St. Louis Rams	0.66%	0.67%	0.32%	0.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons		0.18%		0.56%		1.25%	0.14%		1.37%	0.38%
Denver Broncos	0.23%		0.18%		0.02%			0.39%			0.05%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers		0.25%		0.84%		1.46%	0.21%		2.37%	0.62%
Indianapolis Colts	1.74%		1.89%		0.42%			5.43%			0.64%	0.33%
Minnesota Vikings				0.10%		0.12%	0.07%		0.25%	0.09%
New England Patriots	3.90%		3.86%		0.59%			11.68%			1.39%	0.70%
New York Jets	0.19%		0.16%		0.02%			0.51%			0.07%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.48%		3.47%		7.22%	0.77%		8.92%	2.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.46%		4.53%		0.85%			13.42%			1.54%	0.62%
San Diego Chargers	0.86%		0.88%		0.18%			2.70%			0.24%	0.13%
Seattle Seahawks		0.04%		0.16%		0.34%	0.05%		0.48%	0.17%
St. Louis Rams				0.09%		0.14%	0.01%		0.17%	0.04%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Pittsburgh Steelers 25.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

49.70%

Win Prob

66.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

61.01%

Win Prob

54.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.79%

Win Prob

60.07%

Philadelphia Eagles 23.19% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

46.40%

Win Prob

80.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

51.33%

Win Prob

74.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

38.46%

Win Prob

39.93%

New England Patriots 22.12% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

72.74%

Win Prob

59.58%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

61.96%

Win Prob

45.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.80%

Win Prob

61.80%

Indianapolis Colts 10.45% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.91%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.42%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

59.03%

Win Prob

44.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

51.96%

Win Prob

61.01%

Green Bay Packers 5.75% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.34%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

69.57%

Win Prob

35.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

41.22%

Win Prob

34.35%

San Diego Chargers 4.99% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

77.43%

Win Prob

33.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.34%

Win Prob

34.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.11%

Win Prob

53.68%

Atlanta Falcons 3.88% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

66.69%

Win Prob

44.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

64.42%

Win Prob

25.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

35.31%

Win Prob

23.50%

Seattle Seahawks 1.24% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

56.81%

Win Prob

19.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

34.24%

Win Prob

44.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

38.71%

Win Prob

23.76%

New York Jets 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

74.50%

Win Prob

24.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.08%

Win Prob

28.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.12%

Win Prob

39.84%

Denver Broncos 0.92% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.09%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

62.57%

Win Prob

26.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

42.39%

Win Prob

44.83%

Minnesota Vikings 0.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.66%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.67%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

61.99%

Win Prob

48.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.68%

Win Prob

22.73%

St. Louis Rams 0.45% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

55.70%

Win Prob

17.09%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

29.26%

Win Prob

26.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

37.78%

Win Prob

21.52%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2004-09-12	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-17	1405.82	1530.12	27.66%	72.10%	-13.40	0-1
2004-09-19	New England Patriots	L 12-23	1392.42	1587.79	29.15%	70.61%	-17.70	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-6	1374.72	1527.04	24.55%	75.21%	-7.79	0-3
2004-10-03	New Orleans Saints	W 34-10	1366.93	1502.74	36.69%	63.07%	+56.50	1-3
2004-10-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1423.43	1413.02	45.36%	54.40%	-14.38	1-4
2004-10-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 25-17	1409.05	1552.45	35.68%	64.07%	+33.15	2-4
2004-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1442.20	1424.61	46.39%	53.37%	-41.59	2-5
2004-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-23	1400.61	1424.02	40.59%	59.16%	+10.82	3-5
2004-11-14	New York Giants	W 17-14	1411.43	1521.16	40.24%	59.51%	+18.86	4-5
2004-11-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-35	1430.29	1427.52	44.27%	55.48%	-40.51	4-6
2004-11-28	New York Jets	L 3-13	1389.78	1564.55	31.65%	68.10%	-18.33	4-7
2004-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 12-26	1371.45	1377.41	43.04%	56.72%	-29.47	4-8
2004-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1341.98	1272.37	65.38%	34.37%	-20.71	4-9
2004-12-19	St. Louis Rams	W 31-7	1321.27	1435.79	39.58%	60.18%	+53.91	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1375.18	1454.01	33.19%	66.57%	-10.52	5-10
2005-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-7	1364.66	1450.27	43.62%	56.14%	+22.96	6-10
2004-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-19	1472.28	1505.56	39.23%	60.53%	+15.65	1-0
2004-09-19	St. Louis Rams	W 34-17	1487.93	1543.52	47.91%	51.85%	+39.11	2-0
2004-09-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 6-3	1527.04	1374.72	75.21%	24.55%	+7.79	3-0
2004-10-03	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-10	1534.83	1535.57	43.78%	55.98%	+42.21	4-0
2004-10-10	Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1577.04	1463.99	70.79%	28.97%	-34.24	4-1
2004-10-17	San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1542.80	1514.60	59.83%	39.93%	+7.30	5-1
2004-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-56	1550.10	1454.60	57.53%	42.23%	-71.36	5-2
2004-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-28	1478.74	1571.02	31.49%	68.27%	+45.01	6-2
2004-11-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-14	1523.75	1492.13	60.30%	39.46%	+22.84	7-2
2004-11-21	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1546.59	1502.31	50.22%	49.53%	+18.12	8-2
2004-11-28	New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1564.71	1405.01	75.99%	23.77%	+7.55	9-2
2004-12-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-27	1572.26	1473.45	57.99%	41.76%	-55.12	9-3
2004-12-12	Oakland Raiders	W 35-10	1517.14	1359.00	75.82%	23.93%	+21.92	10-3
2004-12-18	Carolina Panthers	W 34-31	1539.06	1540.76	55.64%	44.12%	+13.99	11-3
2004-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-26	1553.05	1440.75	59.87%	39.89%	-13.16	11-4
2005-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-28	1539.89	1464.53	54.68%	45.08%	-4.72	11-5
2004-09-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-20	1535.95	1466.94	53.77%	45.98%	-40.55	0-1
2004-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1495.40	1499.44	55.30%	44.45%	+33.54	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-9	1528.94	1472.20	52.01%	47.74%	+32.69	2-1
2004-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1561.63	1452.23	70.35%	29.41%	-22.29	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1539.34	1426.96	59.88%	39.88%	+19.31	3-2
2004-10-24	Buffalo Bills	W 20-6	1558.65	1444.36	70.93%	28.82%	+19.75	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-15	1578.40	1676.19	30.81%	68.94%	-12.61	4-3
2004-11-07	Cleveland Browns	W 27-13	1565.79	1461.38	69.75%	30.01%	+20.56	5-3
2004-11-14	@ New York Jets	W 20-17	1586.35	1569.64	46.26%	53.50%	+16.95	6-3
2004-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-10	1603.30	1383.64	81.67%	18.09%	+14.82	7-3
2004-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 3-24	1618.12	1701.92	32.55%	67.20%	-27.32	7-4
2004-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 26-27	1590.80	1492.92	68.96%	30.80%	-12.61	7-5
2004-12-12	New York Giants	W 37-14	1578.19	1410.57	76.80%	22.95%	+20.17	8-5
2004-12-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-20	1598.36	1717.16	28.30%	71.46%	-16.39	8-6
2004-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-20	1581.97	1719.34	26.18%	73.58%	-17.29	8-7
2005-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 30-23	1564.68	1419.01	74.49%	25.26%	+12.25	9-7
2004-09-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-13	1486.83	1474.85	57.57%	42.19%	-18.24	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-13	1468.59	1448.56	46.74%	53.02%	-14.81	0-2
2004-10-03	New England Patriots	L 17-31	1453.78	1605.49	34.59%	65.17%	-23.69	0-3
2004-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 14-16	1430.09	1562.47	26.74%	73.02%	-6.93	0-4
2004-10-17	Miami Dolphins	W 20-13	1423.16	1422.50	55.97%	43.79%	+21.20	1-4
2004-10-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-20	1444.36	1558.65	28.82%	70.93%	-19.75	1-5
2004-10-31	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-14	1424.61	1442.20	53.37%	46.39%	+41.58	2-5
2004-11-07	New York Jets	W 22-17	1466.19	1595.05	37.63%	62.13%	+25.41	3-5
2004-11-14	@ New England Patriots	L 6-29	1491.60	1665.92	22.28%	77.48%	-19.57	3-6
2004-11-21	St. Louis Rams	W 37-17	1472.03	1514.62	49.78%	49.98%	+40.89	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-9	1512.92	1539.62	40.14%	59.62%	+58.71	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 42-32	1571.63	1419.79	65.18%	34.57%	+20.02	6-6
2004-12-12	Cleveland Browns	W 37-7	1591.65	1375.31	81.39%	18.37%	+18.44	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-17	1610.09	1497.50	59.91%	39.85%	+29.17	8-6
2004-12-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-7	1639.26	1271.82	86.51%	13.25%	+14.16	9-6
2005-01-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-29	1653.42	1736.63	43.96%	55.79%	-17.99	9-7
2004-09-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1530.51	1565.15	50.92%	48.84%	-29.46	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-17	1501.05	1508.38	42.84%	56.91%	+34.52	1-1
2004-10-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-27	1535.57	1534.83	55.98%	43.78%	-42.21	1-2
2004-10-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1493.36	1576.61	32.62%	67.13%	-10.35	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 8-30	1483.01	1646.93	23.33%	76.42%	-20.05	1-4
2004-10-24	San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1462.96	1507.29	49.53%	50.23%	-30.05	1-5
2004-10-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1432.91	1519.30	32.23%	67.53%	-14.45	1-6
2004-11-07	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1418.46	1355.82	64.47%	35.28%	-20.43	1-7
2004-11-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 37-27	1398.03	1363.68	48.79%	50.96%	+29.49	2-7
2004-11-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-10	1427.52	1430.29	55.48%	44.27%	+40.51	3-7
2004-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-14	1468.03	1496.68	51.78%	47.97%	+23.22	4-7
2004-12-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-21	1491.25	1397.47	57.29%	42.47%	+25.78	5-7
2004-12-12	St. Louis Rams	W 20-7	1517.03	1459.52	63.80%	35.96%	+23.73	6-7
2004-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-34	1540.76	1539.06	44.12%	55.64%	-13.98	6-8
2004-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-20	1526.78	1488.25	49.39%	50.36%	+37.99	7-8
2005-01-02	New Orleans Saints	L 18-21	1564.77	1453.91	70.53%	29.23%	-22.34	7-9
2004-09-12	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1477.74	1452.00	59.49%	40.27%	-21.76	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1455.98	1594.61	26.04%	73.72%	+44.71	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1500.69	1523.63	40.66%	59.10%	-16.64	1-2
2004-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-19	1484.05	1626.18	35.85%	63.91%	-20.75	1-3
2004-10-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1463.30	1407.65	63.55%	36.21%	-20.13	1-4
2004-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-19	1443.17	1446.89	43.35%	56.40%	-27.49	1-5
2004-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1415.68	1414.10	56.10%	43.66%	+25.27	2-5
2004-11-07	@ New York Giants	W 28-21	1440.95	1555.50	28.79%	70.96%	+34.33	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-17	1475.28	1482.42	42.87%	56.89%	+14.71	4-5
2004-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1489.99	1630.74	36.03%	63.72%	-36.72	4-6
2004-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1453.27	1368.82	55.97%	43.79%	-38.31	4-7
2004-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1414.96	1550.03	36.79%	62.97%	+36.42	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-22	1451.38	1449.88	44.09%	55.66%	-35.17	5-8
2004-12-19	Houston Texans	L 5-24	1416.21	1421.51	55.12%	44.64%	-43.95	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-19	1372.26	1392.01	41.10%	58.65%	-18.43	5-10
2005-01-02	Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1353.83	1582.51	25.35%	74.41%	-19.14	5-11
2004-09-12	@ New York Jets	L 24-31	1475.59	1497.20	40.85%	58.91%	-19.78	0-1
2004-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1455.81	1510.54	48.03%	51.73%	+16.39	1-1
2004-09-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-23	1472.20	1528.94	47.74%	52.01%	-32.68	1-2
2004-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1439.52	1500.50	35.50%	64.26%	-21.56	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-34	1417.96	1439.79	40.81%	58.94%	-30.80	1-4
2004-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1387.16	1620.41	24.85%	74.90%	+49.39	2-4
2004-10-31	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-27	1436.55	1462.96	40.18%	59.58%	-19.46	2-5
2004-11-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-3	1417.09	1450.77	51.06%	48.70%	+42.73	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1459.82	1430.83	48.02%	51.73%	+25.04	4-5
2004-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-19	1484.86	1670.75	30.28%	69.47%	-12.40	4-6
2004-11-28	Cleveland Browns	W 58-48	1472.46	1410.26	64.42%	35.34%	+20.46	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-26	1492.92	1590.80	30.80%	68.96%	+12.61	6-6
2004-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 28-35	1505.53	1743.73	16.56%	83.20%	-8.03	6-7
2004-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 17-33	1497.50	1610.09	39.85%	59.91%	-29.17	6-8
2004-12-26	New York Giants	W 23-22	1468.33	1385.19	67.12%	32.64%	+5.97	7-8
2005-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-10	1474.30	1723.84	15.68%	84.08%	+27.12	8-8
2004-09-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1466.94	1535.95	45.98%	53.77%	+40.56	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-19	1507.50	1467.50	49.61%	50.15%	-24.01	1-1
2004-09-26	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1483.49	1437.66	50.45%	49.31%	-38.05	1-2
2004-10-03	Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1445.44	1442.89	56.24%	43.52%	+15.92	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-34	1461.36	1522.06	35.54%	64.22%	-21.57	2-3
2004-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-17	1439.79	1417.96	58.94%	40.81%	+30.80	3-3
2004-10-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1470.59	1666.98	29.02%	70.73%	-9.21	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-27	1461.38	1565.79	30.01%	69.75%	-20.56	3-5
2004-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1440.82	1652.05	27.30%	72.46%	-18.71	3-6
2004-11-21	New York Jets	L 7-10	1422.11	1552.69	37.39%	62.36%	-11.85	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 48-58	1410.26	1472.46	35.34%	64.42%	-20.46	3-8
2004-12-05	New England Patriots	L 15-42	1389.80	1729.24	15.22%	84.54%	-14.49	3-9
2004-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-37	1375.31	1591.65	18.37%	81.39%	-18.44	3-10
2004-12-19	San Diego Chargers	L 0-21	1356.87	1638.70	20.00%	79.75%	-16.79	3-11
2004-12-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-10	1340.08	1408.05	34.59%	65.17%	-10.97	3-12
2005-01-02	@ Houston Texans	W 22-14	1329.11	1517.15	20.94%	78.82%	+40.77	4-12
2004-09-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-35	1499.78	1516.15	41.57%	58.18%	-32.28	0-1
2004-09-19	Cleveland Browns	W 19-12	1467.50	1507.50	50.15%	49.61%	+24.01	1-1
2004-09-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-18	1491.51	1459.13	48.51%	51.25%	+16.23	2-1
2004-10-10	New York Giants	L 10-26	1507.74	1505.90	56.14%	43.62%	-41.07	2-2
2004-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1466.67	1543.64	44.85%	54.91%	-16.41	2-3
2004-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-41	1450.26	1505.48	36.27%	63.49%	-30.42	2-4
2004-10-31	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1419.84	1486.83	46.27%	53.48%	+30.93	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-26	1450.77	1417.09	48.70%	51.06%	-42.72	3-5
2004-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1408.05	1638.29	25.18%	74.58%	-24.41	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-30	1383.64	1603.30	18.09%	81.67%	-14.82	3-7
2004-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1368.82	1453.27	43.79%	55.97%	+38.30	4-7
2004-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 43-39	1407.12	1480.91	33.83%	65.92%	+24.12	5-7
2004-12-12	New Orleans Saints	L 13-27	1431.24	1371.69	64.07%	35.69%	-43.84	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-12	1387.40	1738.92	9.37%	90.39%	-3.84	5-9
2004-12-26	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1383.56	1449.90	46.37%	53.39%	+16.91	6-9
2005-01-02	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1400.47	1379.22	46.91%	52.84%	-17.16	6-10
2004-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-24	1529.15	1534.19	55.16%	44.60%	+25.81	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-7	1554.96	1493.09	52.75%	47.01%	-9.65	1-1
2004-09-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-13	1545.31	1454.82	68.04%	31.72%	+18.36	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1563.67	1457.95	58.96%	40.80%	+12.94	3-1
2004-10-10	Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1576.61	1493.36	67.13%	32.62%	+10.34	4-1
2004-10-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-3	1586.95	1434.78	65.23%	34.53%	+33.46	5-1
2004-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1620.41	1387.16	74.90%	24.85%	-49.39	5-2
2004-10-31	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-41	1571.02	1478.74	68.27%	31.49%	-45.01	5-3
2004-11-07	Houston Texans	W 31-13	1526.01	1497.12	59.92%	39.84%	+30.93	6-3
2004-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-13	1556.94	1437.66	60.83%	38.93%	+32.66	7-3
2004-11-28	Oakland Raiders	L 24-25	1589.60	1363.92	82.18%	17.58%	-15.03	7-4
2004-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1574.57	1611.33	38.76%	61.00%	-12.29	7-5
2004-12-12	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1562.28	1399.77	76.28%	23.48%	+7.45	8-5
2004-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-45	1569.73	1530.28	49.53%	50.23%	-47.95	8-6
2004-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 37-16	1521.78	1389.25	62.63%	37.13%	+31.15	9-6
2005-01-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 33-14	1552.93	1744.10	29.65%	70.11%	+18.63	10-6
2004-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1452.00	1477.74	40.27%	59.49%	+21.75	1-0
2004-09-19	Houston Texans	W 28-16	1473.75	1402.98	65.54%	34.22%	+21.71	2-0
2004-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-30	1495.46	1594.71	41.70%	58.06%	-31.47	2-1
2004-10-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1463.99	1577.04	28.97%	70.79%	+34.25	3-1
2004-10-17	Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1498.24	1444.19	63.34%	36.42%	-61.29	3-2
2004-10-24	@ New York Giants	W 28-13	1436.95	1546.97	29.33%	70.43%	+49.88	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1486.83	1419.84	53.48%	46.27%	-30.94	4-3
2004-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1455.89	1400.07	63.57%	36.19%	-30.76	4-4
2004-11-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-23	1425.13	1479.38	36.40%	63.36%	-16.32	4-5
2004-11-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-22	1408.81	1518.34	29.39%	70.37%	-9.32	4-6
2004-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-41	1399.49	1667.47	21.31%	78.45%	-22.08	4-7
2004-12-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-12	1377.41	1371.45	56.72%	43.04%	+29.47	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1406.88	1583.07	22.09%	77.66%	-7.01	5-8
2004-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1399.87	1490.31	42.94%	56.82%	-7.86	5-9
2004-12-26	Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1392.01	1372.26	58.65%	41.10%	+18.42	6-9
2005-01-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 19-24	1410.43	1358.10	51.38%	48.38%	-21.01	6-10
2004-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-14	1565.15	1530.51	48.84%	50.92%	+29.46	1-0
2004-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 10-21	1594.61	1455.98	73.72%	26.04%	-44.72	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-45	1549.89	1581.12	39.51%	60.24%	-27.06	1-2
2004-10-03	New York Giants	L 7-14	1522.83	1475.71	62.41%	37.35%	-30.19	1-3
2004-10-11	Tennessee Titans	L 27-48	1492.64	1478.93	57.81%	41.95%	-48.45	1-4
2004-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1444.19	1498.24	36.42%	63.34%	+61.29	2-4
2004-10-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-20	1505.48	1450.26	63.49%	36.27%	+30.42	3-4
2004-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1535.90	1427.78	59.29%	40.47%	+27.71	4-4
2004-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-31	1563.61	1530.79	60.46%	39.30%	+12.46	5-4
2004-11-21	@ Houston Texans	W 16-13	1576.07	1437.66	63.41%	36.34%	+11.52	6-4
2004-11-29	St. Louis Rams	W 45-17	1587.59	1473.73	70.88%	28.88%	+27.98	7-4
2004-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-47	1615.57	1700.54	32.41%	67.35%	-32.50	7-5
2004-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1583.07	1406.88	77.66%	22.09%	+7.01	8-5
2004-12-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 25-28	1590.08	1485.05	69.83%	29.93%	-22.11	8-6
2004-12-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-31	1567.97	1498.17	53.89%	45.87%	+14.54	9-6
2005-01-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-14	1582.51	1353.83	74.41%	25.35%	+19.14	10-6
2004-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 20-27	1428.39	1451.90	52.52%	47.24%	-25.41	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-28	1402.98	1473.75	34.22%	65.54%	-21.71	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1381.27	1473.86	31.45%	68.30%	+21.64	1-2
2004-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 30-17	1402.91	1490.56	43.33%	56.42%	+37.20	2-2
2004-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-34	1440.11	1540.27	41.57%	58.18%	-18.63	2-3
2004-10-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-10	1421.48	1527.38	29.83%	69.93%	+40.44	3-3
2004-10-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-6	1461.92	1514.58	48.33%	51.43%	+35.20	4-3
2004-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-31	1497.12	1526.01	39.84%	59.92%	-30.94	4-4
2004-11-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-49	1466.18	1602.21	26.33%	73.43%	-28.52	4-5
2004-11-21	Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1437.66	1576.07	36.34%	63.41%	-11.53	4-6
2004-11-28	Tennessee Titans	W 31-21	1426.13	1486.65	47.20%	52.56%	+30.40	5-6
2004-12-05	@ New York Jets	L 7-29	1456.53	1582.88	27.42%	72.33%	-23.55	5-7
2004-12-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-23	1432.98	1705.69	20.86%	78.90%	-11.47	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-5	1421.51	1416.21	44.64%	55.12%	+43.95	6-8
2004-12-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-0	1465.46	1507.17	38.08%	61.68%	+51.69	7-8
2005-01-02	Cleveland Browns	L 14-22	1517.15	1329.11	78.82%	20.94%	-40.77	7-9
2004-09-09	@ New England Patriots	L 24-27	1550.89	1574.95	40.51%	59.25%	-12.84	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-17	1538.05	1589.19	36.81%	62.95%	+43.07	1-1
2004-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 45-31	1581.12	1549.89	60.24%	39.51%	+27.06	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1608.18	1522.35	56.17%	43.59%	+21.11	3-1
2004-10-10	Oakland Raiders	W 35-14	1629.29	1453.35	77.64%	22.12%	+18.57	4-1
2004-10-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-27	1647.86	1490.59	75.73%	24.03%	-23.99	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 35-45	1623.87	1525.96	57.87%	41.89%	-33.47	4-3
2004-11-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1590.40	1542.61	62.50%	37.26%	+11.81	5-3
2004-11-14	Houston Texans	W 49-14	1602.21	1466.18	73.43%	26.33%	+28.53	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-10	1630.74	1489.99	63.72%	36.03%	+36.73	7-3
2004-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-9	1667.47	1399.49	78.45%	21.31%	+22.08	8-3
2004-12-05	Tennessee Titans	W 51-24	1689.55	1456.24	82.81%	16.95%	+16.14	9-3
2004-12-12	@ Houston Texans	W 23-14	1705.69	1432.98	78.90%	20.86%	+11.47	10-3
2004-12-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-10	1717.16	1598.36	71.46%	28.30%	+16.38	11-3
2004-12-26	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1733.54	1655.50	66.47%	33.29%	+10.56	12-3
2005-01-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-33	1744.10	1552.93	70.11%	29.65%	-18.63	12-4
2004-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1474.85	1486.83	42.19%	57.57%	+18.24	1-0
2004-09-19	Denver Broncos	W 7-6	1493.09	1554.96	47.01%	52.75%	+9.65	2-0
2004-09-26	@ Tennessee Titans	W 15-12	1502.74	1546.12	37.86%	61.90%	+19.61	3-0
2004-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-24	1522.35	1608.18	43.59%	56.17%	-21.11	3-1
2004-10-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-34	1501.24	1484.03	46.33%	53.42%	-30.56	3-2
2004-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-16	1470.68	1474.51	55.33%	44.43%	+19.91	4-2
2004-10-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1490.59	1647.86	24.03%	75.73%	+23.99	5-2
2004-10-31	@ Houston Texans	L 6-20	1514.58	1461.92	51.43%	48.33%	-35.20	5-3
2004-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1479.38	1425.13	63.36%	36.40%	+16.32	6-3
2004-11-21	Tennessee Titans	L 15-18	1495.70	1467.70	59.80%	39.96%	-18.95	6-4
2004-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-27	1476.75	1527.66	36.84%	62.92%	-22.36	6-5
2004-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-17	1454.39	1690.20	24.58%	75.18%	-4.51	6-6
2004-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 22-3	1449.88	1451.38	55.66%	44.09%	+35.17	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-25	1485.05	1590.08	29.93%	69.83%	+22.12	8-6
2004-12-26	Houston Texans	L 0-21	1507.17	1465.46	61.68%	38.08%	-51.69	8-7
2005-01-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 13-6	1455.48	1356.06	58.08%	41.68%	+20.18	9-7
2004-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-34	1534.19	1529.15	44.60%	55.16%	-25.81	0-1
2004-09-19	Carolina Panthers	L 17-28	1508.38	1501.05	56.91%	42.84%	-34.52	0-2
2004-09-26	Houston Texans	L 21-24	1473.86	1381.27	68.30%	31.45%	-21.63	0-3
2004-10-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1452.23	1561.63	29.41%	70.35%	+22.28	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-22	1474.51	1470.68	44.43%	55.33%	-19.91	1-4
2004-10-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 56-10	1454.60	1550.10	42.23%	57.53%	+71.36	2-4
2004-10-31	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-35	1525.96	1623.87	41.89%	57.87%	+33.47	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-34	1559.43	1474.37	56.06%	43.70%	-17.76	3-5
2004-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-27	1541.67	1407.24	62.88%	36.88%	-30.42	3-6
2004-11-22	New England Patriots	L 19-27	1511.25	1685.50	31.72%	68.04%	-16.43	3-7
2004-11-28	San Diego Chargers	L 31-34	1494.82	1598.29	41.11%	58.65%	-13.03	3-8
2004-12-05	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-27	1481.79	1378.95	58.56%	41.20%	+19.95	4-8
2004-12-13	@ Tennessee Titans	W 49-38	1501.74	1440.10	52.72%	47.04%	+28.54	5-8
2004-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1530.28	1569.73	50.23%	49.53%	+47.95	6-8
2004-12-25	Oakland Raiders	W 31-30	1578.23	1359.39	81.60%	18.16%	+3.33	7-8
2005-01-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-24	1581.56	1644.94	35.19%	64.57%	-17.05	7-9
2004-09-11	Tennessee Titans	L 7-17	1541.48	1558.25	53.49%	46.27%	-30.94	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-16	1510.54	1455.81	51.73%	48.03%	-16.38	0-2
2004-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-13	1494.16	1465.90	59.83%	39.92%	-34.61	0-3
2004-10-03	New York Jets	L 9-17	1459.55	1539.47	44.43%	55.33%	-22.99	0-4
2004-10-10	@ New England Patriots	L 10-24	1436.56	1629.19	20.51%	79.25%	-14.06	0-5
2004-10-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-20	1422.50	1423.16	43.79%	55.97%	-21.20	0-6
2004-10-24	St. Louis Rams	W 31-14	1401.30	1560.71	33.60%	66.16%	+49.88	1-6
2004-11-01	@ New York Jets	L 14-41	1451.18	1567.89	28.54%	71.22%	-27.16	1-7
2004-11-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-24	1424.02	1400.61	59.16%	40.59%	-10.82	1-8
2004-11-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1413.20	1525.55	29.06%	70.70%	-14.07	1-9
2004-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1399.13	1306.81	57.08%	42.68%	+20.66	2-9
2004-12-05	Buffalo Bills	L 32-42	1419.79	1571.63	34.57%	65.18%	-20.02	2-10
2004-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1399.77	1562.28	23.48%	76.28%	-7.45	2-11
2004-12-20	New England Patriots	W 29-28	1392.32	1751.75	13.79%	85.97%	+15.73	3-11
2004-12-26	Cleveland Browns	W 10-7	1408.05	1340.08	65.17%	34.59%	+10.96	4-11
2005-01-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1419.01	1564.68	25.26%	74.49%	-12.24	4-12
2004-09-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-17	1516.15	1499.78	58.18%	41.57%	+32.29	1-0
2004-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-27	1548.44	1569.90	40.86%	58.89%	-24.81	1-1
2004-09-26	Chicago Bears	W 27-22	1523.63	1500.69	59.10%	40.66%	+16.64	2-1
2004-10-10	@ Houston Texans	W 34-28	1540.27	1440.11	58.18%	41.57%	+18.64	3-1
2004-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-31	1558.91	1428.48	62.34%	37.41%	+18.12	4-1
2004-10-24	Tennessee Titans	W 20-3	1577.03	1486.94	67.99%	31.77%	+23.98	5-1
2004-10-31	New York Giants	L 13-34	1601.01	1497.09	69.69%	30.07%	-58.40	5-2
2004-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1542.61	1590.40	37.26%	62.50%	-11.82	5-3
2004-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 31-34	1530.79	1563.61	39.30%	60.46%	-12.45	5-4
2004-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 22-19	1518.34	1408.81	70.37%	29.39%	+9.32	6-4
2004-11-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-16	1527.66	1476.75	62.92%	36.84%	+22.37	7-4
2004-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1550.03	1414.96	62.97%	36.79%	-36.42	7-5
2004-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1513.61	1456.80	63.70%	36.05%	-23.30	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-27	1490.31	1399.87	56.82%	42.94%	+7.86	8-6
2004-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 31-34	1498.17	1567.97	45.87%	53.89%	-14.54	8-7
2005-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 18-21	1483.63	1432.98	51.14%	48.62%	-16.20	8-8
2004-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1574.95	1550.89	59.25%	40.51%	+12.84	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-12	1587.79	1392.42	70.61%	29.15%	+17.70	2-0
2004-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-17	1605.49	1453.78	65.17%	34.59%	+23.70	3-0
2004-10-10	Miami Dolphins	W 24-10	1629.19	1436.56	79.25%	20.51%	+14.05	4-0
2004-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-20	1643.24	1572.24	65.56%	34.19%	+19.80	5-0
2004-10-24	New York Jets	W 13-7	1663.04	1582.69	66.77%	32.99%	+14.80	6-0
2004-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-34	1677.84	1560.05	60.62%	39.13%	-41.49	6-1
2004-11-07	@ St. Louis Rams	W 40-22	1636.35	1510.82	61.68%	38.08%	+29.57	7-1
2004-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 29-6	1665.92	1491.60	77.48%	22.28%	+19.58	8-1
2004-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-19	1685.50	1511.25	68.04%	31.72%	+16.42	9-1
2004-11-28	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-3	1701.92	1618.12	67.20%	32.55%	+27.32	10-1
2004-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns	W 42-15	1729.24	1389.80	84.54%	15.22%	+14.49	11-1
2004-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-28	1743.73	1505.53	83.20%	16.56%	+8.02	12-1
2004-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-29	1751.75	1392.32	85.97%	13.79%	-15.72	12-2
2004-12-26	@ New York Jets	W 23-7	1736.03	1613.09	61.33%	38.43%	+28.14	13-2
2005-01-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1764.17	1257.66	95.69%	4.06%	+0.93	14-2
2004-09-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-21	1506.87	1513.72	54.90%	44.85%	-37.58	0-1
2004-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-27	1469.29	1489.91	52.94%	46.82%	+14.84	1-1
2004-09-26	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-25	1484.13	1504.42	41.03%	58.73%	+18.61	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-34	1502.74	1366.93	63.07%	36.69%	-56.51	2-2
2004-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1446.23	1445.01	56.05%	43.71%	-17.75	2-3
2004-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-38	1428.48	1558.91	37.41%	62.34%	-18.12	2-4
2004-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-26	1410.36	1401.33	45.17%	54.59%	+22.33	3-4
2004-11-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-43	1432.69	1560.52	27.25%	72.51%	-25.45	3-5
2004-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-20	1407.24	1541.67	36.88%	62.88%	+30.42	4-5
2004-11-21	Denver Broncos	L 13-34	1437.66	1556.94	38.93%	60.83%	-32.65	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-24	1405.01	1564.71	23.77%	75.99%	-7.54	4-7
2004-12-05	Carolina Panthers	L 21-32	1397.47	1491.25	42.47%	57.29%	-25.78	4-8
2004-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-13	1371.69	1431.24	35.69%	64.07%	+43.84	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-17	1415.53	1513.48	30.79%	68.96%	+25.22	6-8
2004-12-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-13	1440.75	1553.05	39.89%	59.87%	+13.16	7-8
2005-01-02	@ Carolina Panthers	W 21-18	1453.91	1564.77	29.23%	70.53%	+22.34	8-8
2004-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-31	1433.02	1550.40	28.46%	71.30%	-19.50	0-1
2004-09-19	Washington Redskins	W 20-14	1413.52	1483.27	45.88%	53.88%	+24.14	1-1
2004-09-26	Cleveland Browns	W 27-10	1437.66	1483.49	49.31%	50.45%	+38.05	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1475.71	1522.83	37.35%	62.41%	+30.19	3-1
2004-10-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 26-10	1505.90	1507.74	43.62%	56.14%	+41.07	4-1
2004-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 13-28	1546.97	1436.95	70.43%	29.33%	-49.88	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-13	1497.09	1601.01	30.07%	69.69%	+58.41	5-2
2004-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 21-28	1555.50	1440.95	70.96%	28.79%	-34.34	5-3
2004-11-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-17	1521.16	1411.43	59.51%	40.24%	-18.85	5-4
2004-11-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1502.31	1546.59	49.53%	50.22%	-18.12	5-5
2004-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-27	1484.19	1675.70	29.61%	70.15%	-24.85	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1459.34	1385.74	54.43%	45.33%	-48.77	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-37	1410.57	1578.19	22.95%	76.80%	-20.17	5-8
2004-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 30-33	1390.40	1714.13	16.42%	83.34%	-5.21	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 22-23	1385.19	1468.33	32.64%	67.12%	-5.97	5-10
2005-01-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-24	1379.22	1400.47	52.84%	46.91%	+17.16	6-10
2004-09-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-24	1497.20	1475.59	58.91%	40.85%	+19.77	1-0
2004-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-28	1516.97	1477.32	49.56%	50.20%	+22.50	2-0
2004-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-9	1539.47	1459.55	55.33%	44.43%	+23.00	3-0
2004-10-10	Buffalo Bills	W 16-14	1562.47	1430.09	73.02%	26.74%	+6.92	4-0
2004-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 22-14	1569.39	1427.40	74.09%	25.67%	+13.30	5-0
2004-10-24	@ New England Patriots	L 7-13	1582.69	1663.04	32.99%	66.77%	-14.80	5-1
2004-11-01	Miami Dolphins	W 41-14	1567.89	1451.18	71.22%	28.54%	+27.16	6-1
2004-11-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-22	1595.05	1466.19	62.13%	37.63%	-25.41	6-2
2004-11-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1569.64	1586.35	53.50%	46.26%	-16.95	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 10-7	1552.69	1422.11	62.36%	37.39%	+11.86	7-3
2004-11-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 13-3	1564.55	1389.78	68.10%	31.65%	+18.33	8-3
2004-12-05	Houston Texans	W 29-7	1582.88	1456.53	72.33%	27.42%	+23.55	9-3
2004-12-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-17	1606.43	1694.70	31.99%	67.76%	-19.43	9-4
2004-12-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-14	1587.00	1480.10	70.05%	29.70%	+26.09	10-4
2004-12-26	New England Patriots	L 7-23	1613.09	1736.03	38.43%	61.33%	-28.13	10-5
2005-01-02	@ St. Louis Rams	L 29-32	1584.96	1400.79	69.26%	30.49%	-21.94	10-6
2004-09-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1461.34	1486.66	40.33%	59.43%	-12.78	0-1
2004-09-19	Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1448.56	1468.59	53.02%	46.74%	+14.81	1-1
2004-09-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-20	1463.37	1485.13	52.77%	46.99%	+27.19	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Houston Texans	L 17-30	1490.56	1402.91	56.42%	43.33%	-37.21	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-35	1453.35	1629.29	22.12%	77.64%	-18.57	2-3
2004-10-17	Denver Broncos	L 3-31	1434.78	1586.95	34.53%	65.23%	-33.45	2-4
2004-10-24	New Orleans Saints	L 26-31	1401.33	1410.36	54.59%	45.17%	-22.33	2-5
2004-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-42	1379.00	1537.34	23.91%	75.85%	-23.18	2-6
2004-11-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-24	1355.82	1418.46	35.28%	64.47%	+20.42	3-6
2004-11-21	San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1376.24	1585.97	27.47%	72.29%	-12.32	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	W 25-24	1363.92	1589.60	17.58%	82.18%	+15.03	4-7
2004-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-34	1378.95	1481.79	41.20%	58.56%	-19.95	4-8
2004-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-35	1359.00	1517.14	23.93%	75.82%	-21.92	4-9
2004-12-19	Tennessee Titans	W 40-35	1337.08	1411.56	45.20%	54.55%	+22.31	5-9
2004-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-31	1359.39	1578.23	18.16%	81.60%	-3.33	5-10
2005-01-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-13	1356.06	1455.48	41.68%	58.08%	-20.18	5-11
2004-09-12	New York Giants	W 31-17	1550.40	1433.02	71.30%	28.46%	+19.50	1-0
2004-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-16	1569.90	1548.44	58.89%	40.86%	+24.81	2-0
2004-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-13	1594.71	1495.46	58.06%	41.70%	+31.47	3-0
2004-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-9	1626.18	1484.05	63.91%	35.85%	+20.75	4-0
2004-10-17	Carolina Panthers	W 30-8	1646.93	1483.01	76.42%	23.33%	+20.05	5-0
2004-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-31	1666.98	1470.59	70.73%	29.02%	+9.21	6-0
2004-10-31	Baltimore Ravens	W 15-10	1676.19	1578.40	68.94%	30.81%	+12.61	7-0
2004-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1688.80	1601.54	56.37%	43.39%	-50.51	7-1
2004-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 49-21	1638.29	1408.05	74.58%	25.18%	+24.41	8-1
2004-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 28-6	1662.70	1405.79	84.63%	15.12%	+13.00	9-1
2004-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 27-6	1675.70	1484.19	70.15%	29.61%	+24.84	10-1
2004-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 47-17	1700.54	1615.57	67.35%	32.41%	+32.50	11-1
2004-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1733.04	1434.51	81.25%	18.51%	+5.88	12-1
2004-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 12-7	1738.92	1387.40	90.39%	9.37%	+3.84	13-1
2004-12-27	@ St. Louis Rams	L 7-20	1742.76	1381.87	86.07%	13.69%	-18.92	13-2
2005-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-38	1723.84	1474.30	84.08%	15.68%	-27.12	13-3
2004-09-12	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1486.66	1461.34	59.43%	40.33%	+12.78	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-30	1499.44	1495.40	44.45%	55.30%	-33.54	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-3	1465.90	1494.16	39.92%	59.83%	+34.60	2-1
2004-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1500.50	1439.52	64.26%	35.50%	+21.56	3-1
2004-10-10	Cleveland Browns	W 34-23	1522.06	1461.36	64.22%	35.54%	+21.58	4-1
2004-10-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1543.64	1466.67	54.91%	44.85%	+16.41	5-1
2004-10-31	New England Patriots	W 34-20	1560.05	1677.84	39.13%	60.62%	+41.49	6-1
2004-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-3	1601.54	1688.80	43.39%	56.37%	+50.51	7-1
2004-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1652.05	1440.82	72.46%	27.30%	+18.70	8-1
2004-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-14	1670.75	1484.86	69.47%	30.28%	+12.40	9-1
2004-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 16-7	1683.15	1392.79	86.94%	12.81%	+7.05	10-1
2004-12-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-16	1690.20	1454.39	75.18%	24.58%	+4.50	11-1
2004-12-12	New York Jets	W 17-6	1694.70	1606.43	67.76%	31.99%	+19.43	12-1
2004-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 33-30	1714.13	1390.40	83.34%	16.42%	+5.21	13-1
2004-12-26	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-7	1719.34	1581.97	73.58%	26.18%	+17.29	14-1
2005-01-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-24	1736.63	1653.42	55.79%	43.96%	+17.99	15-1
2004-09-12	@ Houston Texans	W 27-20	1451.90	1428.39	47.24%	52.52%	+25.42	1-0
2004-09-19	New York Jets	L 28-34	1477.32	1516.97	50.20%	49.56%	-22.50	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1454.82	1545.31	31.72%	68.04%	-18.36	1-2
2004-10-03	Tennessee Titans	W 38-17	1436.46	1526.51	42.99%	56.76%	+47.57	2-2
2004-10-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-21	1484.03	1501.24	53.42%	46.33%	+30.57	3-2
2004-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-21	1514.60	1542.80	39.93%	59.83%	-7.31	3-3
2004-10-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 17-6	1507.29	1462.96	50.23%	49.53%	+30.05	4-3
2004-10-31	Oakland Raiders	W 42-14	1537.34	1379.00	75.85%	23.91%	+23.18	5-3
2004-11-07	New Orleans Saints	W 43-17	1560.52	1432.69	72.51%	27.25%	+25.45	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-17	1585.97	1376.24	72.29%	27.47%	+12.32	7-3
2004-11-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1598.29	1494.82	58.65%	41.11%	+13.04	8-3
2004-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 20-17	1611.33	1574.57	61.00%	38.76%	+12.28	9-3
2004-12-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-24	1623.61	1528.57	68.61%	31.15%	+15.09	10-3
2004-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-0	1638.70	1356.87	79.75%	20.00%	+16.80	11-3
2004-12-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-34	1655.50	1733.54	33.29%	66.47%	-10.56	11-4
2005-01-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1644.94	1581.56	64.57%	35.19%	+17.05	12-4
2004-09-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 19-21	1505.56	1472.28	60.53%	39.23%	-15.65	0-1
2004-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1489.91	1469.29	46.82%	52.94%	-14.84	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-34	1475.07	1569.21	31.26%	68.50%	-33.38	0-3
2004-10-03	St. Louis Rams	L 14-24	1441.69	1485.81	49.56%	50.20%	-28.67	0-4
2004-10-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1413.02	1423.43	54.40%	45.36%	+14.38	1-4
2004-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 14-22	1427.40	1569.39	25.67%	74.09%	-13.30	1-5
2004-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-23	1414.10	1415.68	43.66%	56.10%	-25.26	1-6
2004-11-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 27-42	1388.84	1533.76	35.48%	64.28%	-25.16	1-7
2004-11-14	Carolina Panthers	L 27-37	1363.68	1398.03	50.96%	48.79%	-29.48	1-8
2004-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-35	1334.20	1469.29	26.43%	73.33%	-27.39	1-9
2004-11-28	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1306.81	1399.13	42.68%	57.08%	-20.66	1-10
2004-12-05	@ St. Louis Rams	L 6-16	1286.15	1445.75	23.78%	75.98%	-13.78	1-11
2004-12-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1272.37	1341.98	34.37%	65.38%	+20.71	2-11
2004-12-18	Washington Redskins	L 16-26	1293.08	1428.64	36.72%	63.03%	-21.26	2-12
2004-12-26	Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1271.82	1639.26	13.25%	86.51%	-14.16	2-13
2005-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 7-21	1257.66	1764.17	4.06%	95.69%	-0.93	2-14
2004-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1513.72	1506.87	44.85%	54.90%	+37.57	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-6	1551.29	1503.05	50.79%	48.96%	+17.92	2-0
2004-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-0	1569.21	1475.07	68.50%	31.26%	+33.38	3-0
2004-10-10	St. Louis Rams	L 27-33	1602.59	1514.48	67.74%	32.01%	-30.35	3-1
2004-10-17	@ New England Patriots	L 20-30	1572.24	1643.24	34.19%	65.56%	-19.79	3-2
2004-10-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-25	1552.45	1409.05	64.07%	35.68%	-33.15	3-3
2004-10-31	Carolina Panthers	W 23-17	1519.30	1432.91	67.53%	32.23%	+14.46	4-3
2004-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-27	1533.76	1388.84	64.28%	35.48%	+25.16	5-3
2004-11-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 12-23	1558.92	1481.25	55.01%	44.75%	-33.37	5-4
2004-11-21	Miami Dolphins	W 24-17	1525.55	1413.20	70.70%	29.06%	+14.07	6-4
2004-11-28	Buffalo Bills	L 9-38	1539.62	1512.92	59.62%	40.14%	-58.71	6-5
2004-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 39-43	1480.91	1407.12	65.92%	33.83%	-24.11	6-6
2004-12-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-23	1456.80	1513.61	36.05%	63.70%	+23.30	7-6
2004-12-19	@ New York Jets	L 14-37	1480.10	1587.00	29.70%	70.05%	-26.09	7-7
2004-12-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-21	1454.01	1375.18	66.57%	33.19%	+10.52	8-7
2005-01-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-26	1464.53	1539.89	45.08%	54.68%	+4.72	9-7
2004-09-12	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-10	1530.12	1405.82	72.10%	27.66%	+13.40	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1543.52	1487.93	51.85%	47.91%	-39.10	1-1
2004-09-26	New Orleans Saints	L 25-28	1504.42	1484.13	58.73%	41.03%	-18.61	1-2
2004-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1485.81	1441.69	50.20%	49.56%	+28.67	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1514.48	1602.59	32.01%	67.74%	+30.35	3-2
2004-10-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-21	1544.83	1462.77	66.98%	32.78%	+15.88	4-2
2004-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-31	1560.71	1401.30	66.16%	33.60%	-49.89	4-3
2004-11-07	New England Patriots	L 22-40	1510.82	1636.35	38.08%	61.68%	-29.57	4-4
2004-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-12	1481.25	1558.92	44.75%	55.01%	+33.37	5-4
2004-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-37	1514.62	1472.03	49.98%	49.78%	-40.89	5-5
2004-11-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-45	1473.73	1587.59	28.88%	70.88%	-27.98	5-6
2004-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-6	1445.75	1286.15	75.98%	23.78%	+13.77	6-6
2004-12-12	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-20	1459.52	1517.03	35.96%	63.80%	-23.73	6-7
2004-12-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-31	1435.79	1321.27	60.18%	39.58%	-53.92	6-8
2004-12-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-7	1381.87	1742.76	13.69%	86.07%	+18.92	7-8
2005-01-02	New York Jets	W 32-29	1400.79	1584.96	30.49%	69.26%	+21.94	8-8
2004-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1527.06	1459.25	53.60%	46.16%	-24.01	0-1
2004-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-10	1503.05	1551.29	48.96%	50.79%	-17.92	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-30	1485.13	1463.37	46.99%	52.77%	-27.18	0-3
2004-10-03	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1457.95	1563.67	40.80%	58.96%	-12.94	0-4
2004-10-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1445.01	1446.23	43.71%	56.05%	+17.76	1-4
2004-10-18	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-28	1462.77	1544.83	32.78%	66.98%	-15.88	1-5
2004-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 19-7	1446.89	1443.17	56.40%	43.35%	+27.48	2-5
2004-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1474.37	1559.43	43.70%	56.06%	+17.76	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1492.13	1523.75	39.46%	60.30%	-22.84	3-6
2004-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-3	1469.29	1334.20	73.33%	26.43%	+27.39	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-21	1496.68	1468.03	47.97%	51.78%	-23.23	4-7
2004-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-0	1473.45	1572.26	41.76%	57.99%	+55.12	5-7
2004-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-31	1528.57	1623.61	31.15%	68.61%	-15.09	5-8
2004-12-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-21	1513.48	1415.53	68.96%	30.79%	-25.23	5-9
2004-12-26	Carolina Panthers	L 20-37	1488.25	1526.78	50.36%	49.39%	-37.98	5-10
2005-01-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-12	1450.27	1364.66	56.14%	43.62%	-22.96	5-11
2004-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1558.25	1541.48	46.27%	53.49%	+30.94	1-0
2004-09-19	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-31	1589.19	1538.05	62.95%	36.81%	-43.07	1-1
2004-09-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 12-15	1546.12	1502.74	61.90%	37.86%	-19.61	1-2
2004-10-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1526.51	1436.46	56.76%	42.99%	-47.58	1-3
2004-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 48-27	1478.93	1492.64	41.95%	57.81%	+48.45	2-3
2004-10-17	Houston Texans	L 10-20	1527.38	1421.48	69.93%	29.83%	-40.44	2-4
2004-10-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-20	1486.94	1577.03	31.77%	67.99%	-23.98	2-5
2004-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1462.96	1436.55	59.58%	40.18%	+19.46	3-5
2004-11-14	Chicago Bears	L 17-19	1482.42	1475.28	56.89%	42.87%	-14.72	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 18-15	1467.70	1495.70	39.96%	59.80%	+18.95	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Houston Texans	L 21-31	1486.65	1426.13	52.56%	47.20%	-30.41	4-7
2004-12-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-51	1456.24	1689.55	16.95%	82.81%	-16.14	4-8
2004-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 38-49	1440.10	1501.74	47.04%	52.72%	-28.54	4-9
2004-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 35-40	1411.56	1337.08	54.55%	45.20%	-22.31	4-10
2004-12-25	Denver Broncos	L 16-37	1389.25	1521.78	37.13%	62.63%	-31.15	4-11
2005-01-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-19	1358.10	1410.43	48.38%	51.38%	+21.02	5-11
2004-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-10	1459.25	1527.06	46.16%	53.60%	+24.02	1-0
2004-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 14-20	1483.27	1413.52	53.88%	45.88%	-24.14	1-1
2004-09-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 18-21	1459.13	1491.51	51.25%	48.51%	-16.24	1-2
2004-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-17	1442.89	1445.44	43.52%	56.24%	-15.93	1-3
2004-10-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1426.96	1539.34	39.88%	59.88%	-19.31	1-4
2004-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1407.65	1463.30	36.21%	63.55%	+20.13	2-4
2004-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 14-28	1427.78	1535.90	40.47%	59.29%	-27.71	2-5
2004-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1400.07	1455.89	36.19%	63.57%	+30.76	3-5
2004-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1430.83	1459.82	51.73%	48.02%	-25.04	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-28	1405.79	1662.70	15.12%	84.63%	-13.00	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-16	1392.79	1683.15	12.81%	86.94%	-7.05	3-8
2004-12-05	New York Giants	W 31-7	1385.74	1459.34	45.33%	54.43%	+48.77	4-8
2004-12-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1434.51	1733.04	18.51%	81.25%	-5.87	4-9
2004-12-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-16	1428.64	1293.08	63.03%	36.72%	+21.26	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-13	1449.90	1383.56	53.39%	46.37%	-16.92	5-10
2005-01-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-18	1432.98	1483.63	48.62%	51.14%	+16.21	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2005-01-15	St. Louis Rams	W 47-17	1535.17	1452.88	67.15%	32.85%	+32.84	1-0
2005-01-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-27	1568.01	1711.11	25.64%	74.36%	-19.29	1-1
2005-01-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-49	1571.56	1725.47	24.47%	75.53%	-22.33	0-1
2005-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-31	1601.65	1467.43	73.38%	26.62%	-50.11	0-1
2005-01-09	Denver Broncos	W 49-24	1725.47	1571.56	75.53%	24.47%	+22.33	1-0
2005-01-16	@ New England Patriots	L 3-20	1747.80	1765.10	41.56%	58.44%	-31.28	1-1
2005-01-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1467.43	1601.65	26.62%	73.38%	+50.10	1-0
2005-01-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-27	1517.53	1696.72	21.88%	78.12%	-14.39	1-1
2005-01-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-3	1765.10	1747.80	58.44%	41.56%	+31.27	1-0
2005-01-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-27	1796.37	1761.83	48.94%	51.06%	+34.87	2-0
2005-02-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-21	1831.24	1730.40	64.12%	35.88%	+11.34	3-0
2005-01-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1563.02	1661.99	30.77%	69.23%	+21.88	1-0
2005-01-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1584.90	1754.62	22.83%	77.17%	-7.21	1-1
2005-01-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-14	1696.72	1517.53	78.12%	21.88%	+14.39	1-0
2005-01-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-10	1711.11	1568.01	74.36%	25.64%	+19.29	2-0
2005-02-06	New England Patriots	L 21-24	1730.40	1831.24	35.88%	64.12%	-11.34	2-1
2005-01-15	New York Jets	W 20-17	1754.62	1584.90	77.17%	22.83%	+7.21	1-0
2005-01-23	New England Patriots	L 27-41	1761.83	1796.37	51.06%	48.94%	-34.86	1-1
2005-01-08	New York Jets	L 17-20	1661.99	1563.02	69.23%	30.77%	-21.89	0-1
2005-01-08	St. Louis Rams	L 20-27	1469.25	1422.73	62.46%	37.54%	-30.16	0-1
2005-01-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1422.73	1469.25	37.54%	62.46%	+30.15	1-0
2005-01-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-47	1452.88	1535.17	32.85%	67.15%	-32.84	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2004-12-27	13.69%	@ St. Louis Rams	1381.87	20	Philadelphia Eagles	1742.76	7
2	2004-12-20	13.79%	@ Miami Dolphins	1392.32	29	New England Patriots	1751.75	28
3	2005-01-02	15.68%	Cincinnati Bengals	1474.30	38	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1723.84	10
4	2004-11-28	17.58%	Oakland Raiders	1363.92	25	@ Denver Broncos	1589.60	24
5	2005-01-02	20.94%	Cleveland Browns	1329.11	22	@ Houston Texans	1517.15	14
6	2004-10-24	24.03%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1490.59	27	@ Indianapolis Colts	1647.86	24
7	2004-10-25	24.85%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1387.16	23	Denver Broncos	1620.41	10
8	2004-09-19	26.04%	Chicago Bears	1455.98	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1594.61	10
9	2005-01-09 *	26.62%	Minnesota Vikings	1467.43	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1601.65	17
10	2004-11-07	28.79%	Chicago Bears	1440.95	28	@ New York Giants	1555.50	21
11	2004-10-10	28.97%	Detroit Lions	1463.99	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1577.04	10
12	2005-01-02	29.23%	New Orleans Saints	1453.91	21	@ Carolina Panthers	1564.77	18
13	2004-10-24	29.33%	Detroit Lions	1436.95	28	@ New York Giants	1546.97	13
14	2004-10-04	29.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	1452.23	27	@ Baltimore Ravens	1561.63	24
15	2005-01-02	29.65%	@ Denver Broncos	1552.93	33	Indianapolis Colts	1744.10	14
16	2004-10-17	29.83%	Houston Texans	1421.48	20	@ Tennessee Titans	1527.38	10
17	2004-12-19	29.93%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1485.05	28	@ Green Bay Packers	1590.08	25
18	2004-10-31	30.07%	New York Giants	1497.09	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1601.01	13
19	2005-01-02	30.49%	@ St. Louis Rams	1400.79	32	New York Jets	1584.96	29
20	2005-01-08 *	30.77%	New York Jets	1563.02	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1661.99	17
21	2004-12-19	30.79%	New Orleans Saints	1415.53	21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1513.48	17
22	2004-12-05	30.80%	Cincinnati Bengals	1492.92	27	@ Baltimore Ravens	1590.80	26
23	2004-09-26	31.45%	Houston Texans	1381.27	24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1473.86	21
24	2004-10-31	31.49%	Atlanta Falcons	1478.74	41	@ Denver Broncos	1571.02	28
25	2004-10-10	32.01%	St. Louis Rams	1514.48	33	@ Seattle Seahawks	1602.59	27

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2004-10-24	71.36	@ Kansas City Chiefs	56	1454.60	42.23%	Atlanta Falcons	10	1550.10	57.53%
2	2004-10-17	61.29	Green Bay Packers	38	1444.19	36.42%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1498.24	63.34%
3	2004-11-28	58.71	Buffalo Bills	38	1512.92	40.14%	@ Seattle Seahawks	9	1539.62	59.62%
4	2004-10-31	58.41	New York Giants	34	1497.09	30.07%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1601.01	69.69%
5	2004-10-03	56.51	@ Arizona Cardinals	34	1366.93	36.69%	New Orleans Saints	10	1502.74	63.07%
6	2004-12-05	55.12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	1473.45	41.76%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1572.26	57.99%
7	2004-12-19	53.92	@ Arizona Cardinals	31	1321.27	39.58%	St. Louis Rams	7	1435.79	60.18%
8	2004-12-26	51.69	Houston Texans	21	1465.46	38.08%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	0	1507.17	61.68%
9	2004-11-07	50.51	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1601.54	43.39%	Philadelphia Eagles	3	1688.80	56.37%
10	2005-01-09 *	50.11	Minnesota Vikings	31	1467.43	26.62%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1601.65	73.38%
11	2004-10-24	49.89	@ Miami Dolphins	31	1401.30	33.60%	St. Louis Rams	14	1560.71	66.16%
12	2004-10-24	49.88	Detroit Lions	28	1436.95	29.33%	@ New York Giants	13	1546.97	70.43%
13	2004-10-25	49.39	@ Cincinnati Bengals	23	1387.16	24.85%	Denver Broncos	10	1620.41	74.90%
14	2004-12-05	48.77	@ Washington Redskins	31	1385.74	45.33%	New York Giants	7	1459.34	54.43%
15	2004-10-11	48.45	Tennessee Titans	48	1478.93	41.95%	@ Green Bay Packers	27	1492.64	57.81%
16	2004-12-19	47.95	@ Kansas City Chiefs	45	1530.28	50.23%	Denver Broncos	17	1569.73	49.53%
17	2004-10-03	47.58	@ San Diego Chargers	38	1436.46	42.99%	Tennessee Titans	17	1526.51	56.76%
18	2004-10-31	45.01	Atlanta Falcons	41	1478.74	31.49%	@ Denver Broncos	28	1571.02	68.27%
19	2004-09-19	44.72	Chicago Bears	21	1455.98	26.04%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1594.61	73.72%
20	2004-12-19	43.95	Houston Texans	24	1421.51	44.64%	@ Chicago Bears	5	1416.21	55.12%
21	2004-12-12	43.84	New Orleans Saints	27	1371.69	35.69%	@ Dallas Cowboys	13	1431.24	64.07%
22	2004-09-19	43.07	Indianapolis Colts	31	1538.05	36.81%	@ Tennessee Titans	17	1589.19	62.95%
23	2004-11-07	42.73	@ Cincinnati Bengals	26	1417.09	51.06%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1450.77	48.70%
24	2004-10-03	42.21	Atlanta Falcons	27	1534.83	43.78%	@ Carolina Panthers	10	1535.57	55.98%
25	2004-10-31	41.59	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1424.61	53.37%	Arizona Cardinals	14	1442.20	46.39%