2004 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2003

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1980

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

4.77 wins above expected

15 wins · 10.23 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

3.54 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.54 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	-	437	260	+177	11.77	+2.23
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	6	.625	4	333	261	+72	9.61	+0.39
3	Buffalo Bills	9	7	.562	5	395	284	+111	7.96	+1.04
4	Miami Dolphins	4	12	.250	10	275	354	-79	6.22	-2.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	15	1	.938	-	372	251	+121	10.23	+4.77
2	Baltimore Ravens	9	7	.562	6	317	268	+49	9.06	-0.06
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	7	374	372	+2	6.37	+1.63
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	11	276	390	-114	5.47	-1.47

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	12	4	.750	-	522	351	+171	10.74	+1.26
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	7	.562	3	261	280	-19	7.39	+1.61
3	Houston Texans	7	9	.438	5	309	339	-30	6.46	+0.54
4	Tennessee Titans	5	11	.312	7	344	439	-95	7.66	-2.66

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	12	4	.750	-	446	313	+133	9.28	+2.72
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	381	304	+77	9.82	+0.18
3	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	5	483	435	+48	7.96	-0.96
4	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	7	320	442	-122	5.74	-0.74

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	13	3	.812	-	386	260	+126	11.89	+1.11
2	New York Giants	6	10	.375	7	303	347	-44	6.93	-0.93
3	Dallas Cowboys	6	10	.375	7	293	405	-112	6.48	-0.48
4	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	7	240	265	-25	6.53	-0.53

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	6	.625	-	424	380	+44	9.54	+0.46
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	8	8	.500	2	405	395	+10	9.15	-1.15
3	Detroit Lions	6	10	.375	4	296	350	-54	7.08	-1.08
4	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	5	231	331	-100	6.88	-1.88

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	11	5	.688	-	340	337	+3	9.32	+1.68
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	3	348	405	-57	6.37	+1.63
3	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	4	355	339	+16	7.93	-0.93
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	6	301	304	-3	7.61	-2.61

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	9	7	.562	-	371	373	-2	8.96	+0.04
2	St. Louis Rams Playoffs	8	8	.500	1	319	392	-73	7.70	+0.30
3	Arizona Cardinals	6	10	.375	3	284	322	-38	6.33	-0.33
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	.125	7	259	452	-193	5.54	-3.54

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 20

San Diego Chargers 17

Jan 8

Indianapolis Colts 49

Denver Broncos 24

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 20

New York Jets 17

Jan 15

New England Patriots 20

Indianapolis Colts 3

Jan 16

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Jan 23

NFC

Wild Card Round

St. Louis Rams 27

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 8

Minnesota Vikings 31

Green Bay Packers 17

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons 47

St. Louis Rams 17

Jan 15

Philadelphia Eagles 27

Minnesota Vikings 14

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 27

Atlanta Falcons 10

Jan 23

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 24

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Feb 6

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1793	15	10.23	+4.77	99.96%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1791	14	11.77	+2.23	95.51%	4	9	11	12	13	14	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1747	12	10.74	+1.26	83.87%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1711	13	11.89	+1.11	83.13%	3	9	11	12	13	15	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1686	12	9.28	+2.72	96.16%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1658	9	7.96	+1.04	80.25%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1609	10	9.54	+0.46	69.57%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1584	9	9.06	-0.06	59.52%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1576	7	7.96	-0.96	40.87%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1574	10	9.82	+0.18	63.88%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1565	10	9.61	+0.39	68.32%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1550	7	7.93	-0.93	41.60%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1534	11	9.32	+1.68	87.89%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1513	8	6.37	+1.63	87.40%	0	3	5	6	8	9	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1483	7	6.46	+0.54	71.76%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1483	8	6.37	+1.63	87.23%	0	3	5	6	8	9	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1475	9	7.39	+1.61	86.53%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1458	9	8.96	+0.04	61.15%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1452	8	9.15	-1.15	37.05%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1450	6	6.53	-0.53	50.09%	0	4	5	6	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1413	5	7.61	-2.61	14.03%	0	4	6	8	9	11	16
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1406	8	7.70	+0.30	67.04%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1396	4	6.22	-2.22	17.77%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1385	6	6.93	-0.93	41.58%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1380	6	6.33	-0.33	54.74%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1376	6	7.08	-1.08	38.50%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1371	6	6.48	-0.48	51.24%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1366	4	5.47	-1.47	30.32%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1358	5	7.66	-2.66	13.19%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1319	5	5.74	-0.74	45.97%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1312	5	6.88	-1.88	23.97%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1227	2	5.54	-3.54	4.08%	0	3	4	5	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
New England Patriots	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	-	4-0 (3.0 exp.)
New York Jets	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.9 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	-
Cincinnati Bengals	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	-
Cleveland Browns	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	-	-	-

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	-
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	-	-
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New York Giants	-	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	2-2 (2.9 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	-	-	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	-	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-4 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.39%	0.98%	1.37%	1.76%	0.78%	0.20%	—	5.47%
7–13	0.98%	3.52%	5.47%	3.91%	2.34%	1.76%	0.20%	18.16%
14–20	1.37%	5.47%	5.47%	6.64%	3.32%	2.15%	1.37%	25.78%
21–27	1.76%	3.91%	6.64%	5.47%	4.10%	0.39%	0.78%	23.05%
28–34	0.78%	2.34%	3.32%	4.10%	6.25%	0.59%	0.39%	17.77%
35–41	0.20%	1.76%	2.15%	0.39%	0.59%	0.39%	0.59%	6.05%
42+	—	0.20%	1.37%	0.78%	0.39%	0.59%	0.39%	3.71%
Total	5.47%	18.16%	25.78%	23.05%	17.77%	6.05%	3.71%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.48	21.48	+0.00
SD	10.35	10.35	14.25
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	58	58	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 256

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.75	20.12	-2.38
SD	9.73	10.32	13.82
CV	0.55	0.51	—
Max	34	38	+24
Min	3	6	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	21.06	+0.19
SD	11.64	12.27	17.49
CV	0.55	0.58	—
Max	41	56	+25
Min	0	3	-46

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	16.75	+3.06
SD	10.50	6.53	13.66
CV	0.53	0.39	—
Max	37	27	+23
Min	3	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	37.50%	37.50%	—	25.00%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.69	17.75	+6.94
SD	13.23	8.29	17.32
CV	0.54	0.47	—
Max	42	32	+34
Min	6	7	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	43.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	21.19	+1.00
SD	10.23	7.17	12.97
CV	0.46	0.34	—
Max	37	34	+25
Min	6	7	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.44	20.69	-6.25
SD	7.63	7.62	12.24
CV	0.53	0.37	—
Max	28	41	+11
Min	3	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	23.25	+0.12
SD	11.48	11.91	13.36
CV	0.49	0.51	—
Max	58	48	+28
Min	9	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	24.38	-7.12
SD	12.24	14.15	13.89
CV	0.71	0.58	—
Max	48	58	+17
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.31	25.31	-7.00
SD	9.62	11.89	13.12
CV	0.53	0.47	—
Max	43	49	+14
Min	3	7	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	19.00	+4.81
SD	9.23	11.03	14.92
CV	0.39	0.58	—
Max	37	45	+28
Min	6	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.50	21.88	-3.38
SD	6.42	9.46	13.69
CV	0.35	0.43	—
Max	28	41	+15
Min	9	10	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	18.75%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.50	23.75	+2.75
SD	10.99	13.09	16.78
CV	0.41	0.55	—
Max	45	48	+28
Min	7	10	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	—	6.25%	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.31	21.19	-1.88
SD	6.84	12.36	15.78
CV	0.35	0.58	—
Max	31	49	+21
Min	7	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
42+	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	—	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.62	21.94	+10.69
SD	10.77	10.33	15.64
CV	0.33	0.47	—
Max	51	45	+35
Min	14	9	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.31	17.50	-1.19
SD	7.60	8.51	9.94
CV	0.47	0.49	—
Max	28	34	+19
Min	0	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
Total	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.19	27.19	+3.00
SD	12.61	7.22	15.24
CV	0.42	0.27	—
Max	56	38	+46
Min	16	10	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.19	22.12	-4.94
SD	8.89	9.53	9.71
CV	0.52	0.43	—
Max	32	42	+17
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	18.75%	37.50%	37.50%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.31	24.69	+0.62
SD	7.66	8.27	10.20
CV	0.30	0.33	—
Max	38	34	+18
Min	13	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.31	16.25	+11.06
SD	7.38	9.41	9.95
CV	0.27	0.58	—
Max	42	34	+27
Min	13	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	25.31	-3.56
SD	7.44	8.85	12.53
CV	0.34	0.35	—
Max	31	43	+14
Min	7	13	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.94	21.69	-2.75
SD	8.42	9.51	14.18
CV	0.44	0.44	—
Max	34	37	+21
Min	6	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.81	16.31	+4.50
SD	11.34	8.04	12.11
CV	0.54	0.49	—
Max	41	32	+27
Min	6	3	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	27.62	-7.62
SD	9.95	8.54	12.07
CV	0.50	0.31	—
Max	40	42	+10
Min	3	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	16.25	+7.88
SD	13.25	9.36	17.13
CV	0.55	0.58	—
Max	49	38	+30
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	15.69	+7.56
SD	7.15	8.95	8.72
CV	0.31	0.57	—
Max	34	30	+24
Min	13	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	—	43.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.88	19.56	+8.31
SD	8.85	9.00	11.18
CV	0.32	0.46	—
Max	43	34	+28
Min	13	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	31.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.19	28.25	-12.06
SD	10.09	7.63	11.76
CV	0.62	0.27	—
Max	31	42	+3
Min	0	16	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.19	23.31	-0.12
SD	9.70	11.97	15.09
CV	0.42	0.51	—
Max	42	43	+34
Min	9	0	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	24.50	-4.56
SD	7.56	12.08	14.47
CV	0.38	0.49	—
Max	33	45	+13
Min	7	6	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.81	19.00	-0.19
SD	8.41	10.83	13.30
CV	0.45	0.57	—
Max	35	37	+32
Min	6	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	27.44	-5.94
SD	11.22	12.76	12.95
CV	0.52	0.47	—
Max	48	51	+21
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	50.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	16.56	-1.56
SD	6.62	5.94	10.58
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	31	28	+24
Min	6	7	-22

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.43	+0.3
Allowed	0.35	-0.3
Differential	0.78	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	10.23	+4.77
2	San Diego Chargers	12	9.28	+2.72
3	New England Patriots	14	11.77	+2.23
4	Atlanta Falcons	11	9.32	+1.68
5	New Orleans Saints	8	6.37	+1.63

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	2	5.54	-3.54
2	Tennessee Titans	5	7.66	-2.66
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	7.61	-2.61
4	Miami Dolphins	4	6.22	-2.22
5	Chicago Bears	5	6.88	-1.88

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	Sep 26 – Jan 2	1 in 600
2	New Orleans Saints	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 91
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Oct 17 – Nov 29	1 in 28
4	New York Giants	4	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 27
5	Carolina Panthers	5	Nov 14 – Dec 12	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	8	Nov 7 – Dec 26	1 in 132
2	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Dec 27 – Jan 2	1 in 65
3	Miami Dolphins	6	Sep 11 – Oct 17	1 in 41
4	Green Bay Packers	4	Sep 19 – Oct 11	1 in 41
5	Carolina Panthers	6	Oct 3 – Nov 7	1 in 32

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	74.79%	19.96%	4.64%	0.61%
New York Jets	19.68%	50.97%	22.65%	6.70%
Buffalo Bills	4.74%	22.17%	48.83%	24.27%
Miami Dolphins	0.79%	6.91%	23.87%	68.42%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.75%	27.69%	7.05%	1.50%
Baltimore Ravens	30.07%	48.13%	16.61%	5.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.35%	15.60%	44.85%	35.20%
Cleveland Browns	1.82%	8.58%	31.49%	58.11%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	75.97%	17.36%	5.29%	1.37%
Tennessee Titans	10.87%	35.39%	31.59%	22.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.30%	30.29%	33.49%	26.92%
Houston Texans	3.85%	16.96%	29.63%	49.55%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	47.30%	31.83%	16.85%	4.02%
San Diego Chargers	36.27%	36.06%	21.80%	5.87%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.83%	26.24%	42.14%	16.79%
Oakland Raiders	1.59%	5.88%	19.22%	73.31%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	92.93%	5.88%	1.01%	0.18%
New York Giants	3.26%	36.27%	32.70%	27.78%
Washington Redskins	2.03%	29.50%	33.32%	35.15%
Dallas Cowboys	1.79%	28.35%	32.97%	36.89%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	48.29%	30.98%	14.68%	6.05%
Minnesota Vikings	36.51%	34.18%	19.62%	9.69%
Detroit Lions	8.41%	18.62%	34.28%	38.69%
Chicago Bears	6.79%	16.22%	31.42%	45.57%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	51.73%	27.04%	14.83%	6.40%
Carolina Panthers	24.03%	30.51%	27.51%	17.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18.05%	27.54%	30.82%	23.59%
New Orleans Saints	6.19%	14.90%	26.84%	52.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	58.28%	25.91%	11.54%	4.27%
St. Louis Rams	26.78%	38.70%	23.31%	11.21%
Arizona Cardinals	10.14%	21.61%	35.59%	32.65%
San Francisco 49ers	4.80%	13.78%	29.56%	51.87%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	40.36%	20.51%	12.67%	8.61%	6.24%	4.15%	2.70%	1.82%	1.22%	0.77%	0.46%	0.25%	0.13%	0.08%	0.04%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	19.04%	19.86%	16.13%	12.46%	9.03%	6.75%	5.01%	3.82%	2.83%	1.88%	1.25%	0.85%	0.57%	0.33%	0.15%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.10%	14.93%	15.33%	13.47%	10.64%	8.48%	7.10%	5.59%	3.97%	2.86%	2.11%	1.50%	0.88%	0.53%	0.33%	0.18%
Denver Broncos	7.43%	11.46%	13.01%	12.70%	10.68%	9.61%	8.46%	7.14%	5.46%	4.56%	3.41%	2.44%	1.68%	1.02%	0.60%	0.33%
New York Jets	7.38%	8.32%	9.20%	10.78%	12.08%	11.20%	9.64%	8.01%	6.55%	5.24%	3.94%	2.94%	2.04%	1.44%	0.83%	0.40%
San Diego Chargers	4.94%	8.34%	9.84%	10.66%	10.29%	10.08%	9.53%	8.55%	7.22%	6.04%	4.93%	3.78%	2.45%	1.69%	1.09%	0.55%
Baltimore Ravens	4.01%	6.44%	8.29%	9.51%	10.57%	11.10%	10.71%	9.73%	7.66%	6.10%	5.03%	3.96%	2.83%	1.98%	1.38%	0.69%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.45%	2.91%	4.05%	5.12%	6.28%	7.31%	8.17%	8.72%	9.65%	10.14%	9.43%	8.27%	6.60%	5.23%	4.00%	2.66%
Buffalo Bills	1.20%	1.91%	2.89%	4.18%	5.94%	7.02%	8.16%	9.33%	10.65%	10.94%	9.86%	8.13%	7.22%	5.86%	4.23%	2.49%
Tennessee Titans	0.85%	2.03%	3.01%	4.21%	5.66%	7.13%	8.18%	9.12%	9.39%	9.25%	9.00%	8.37%	7.51%	6.48%	5.63%	4.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.66%	1.70%	2.57%	3.48%	4.74%	6.06%	7.27%	8.26%	8.84%	9.31%	9.54%	9.35%	8.56%	7.78%	6.73%	5.14%
Houston Texans	0.19%	0.53%	0.98%	1.42%	2.26%	3.14%	4.15%	5.20%	6.69%	7.79%	8.99%	10.19%	11.63%	12.68%	13.00%	11.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.18%	0.47%	0.87%	1.42%	2.11%	3.05%	3.94%	5.11%	6.43%	7.76%	9.96%	11.56%	11.41%	11.21%	11.73%	12.81%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%	0.24%	0.50%	0.88%	1.66%	2.13%	2.86%	4.12%	5.81%	7.07%	8.31%	10.14%	12.97%	15.18%	14.37%	13.61%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.21%	0.38%	0.61%	0.96%	1.59%	2.14%	2.77%	4.26%	5.37%	6.75%	8.89%	12.59%	15.34%	18.35%	19.75%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.14%	0.27%	0.49%	0.86%	1.21%	1.98%	2.72%	3.38%	4.91%	7.02%	9.36%	10.92%	13.17%	17.53%	26.02%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	57.23%	20.43%	10.11%	5.03%	2.78%	1.68%	1.00%	0.69%	0.40%	0.27%	0.17%	0.11%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	10.87%	16.20%	14.61%	12.09%	9.93%	8.15%	6.59%	5.11%	4.33%	3.47%	2.74%	2.04%	1.58%	1.13%	0.80%	0.36%
Atlanta Falcons	7.87%	14.91%	14.80%	12.35%	9.83%	8.16%	6.89%	5.93%	4.66%	3.98%	3.15%	2.46%	1.97%	1.47%	0.98%	0.57%
Minnesota Vikings	8.50%	12.28%	11.89%	11.07%	10.50%	8.69%	7.65%	6.27%	5.41%	4.60%	3.70%	3.12%	2.47%	1.86%	1.26%	0.72%
Seattle Seahawks	5.76%	11.96%	13.47%	13.75%	10.39%	8.53%	7.60%	6.41%	5.19%	4.19%	3.67%	3.02%	2.26%	1.62%	1.26%	0.92%
Carolina Panthers	2.50%	5.72%	7.37%	7.82%	8.33%	8.40%	8.15%	7.97%	7.56%	7.17%	6.66%	5.91%	5.21%	4.61%	3.78%	2.85%
St. Louis Rams	1.45%	4.15%	6.20%	7.78%	8.12%	8.84%	8.98%	9.12%	8.03%	7.38%	6.80%	6.61%	5.45%	4.31%	3.75%	3.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.53%	4.25%	5.64%	6.59%	7.25%	7.84%	7.76%	7.74%	7.82%	7.80%	7.48%	6.83%	6.47%	6.09%	5.08%	3.82%
Detroit Lions	1.09%	2.27%	3.15%	4.17%	5.36%	6.06%	6.40%	7.25%	8.05%	8.50%	8.43%	8.37%	8.62%	8.62%	7.60%	6.07%
New York Giants	0.83%	1.43%	2.33%	3.74%	5.58%	6.64%	7.43%	7.83%	8.18%	8.45%	8.46%	8.47%	8.46%	8.17%	7.61%	6.39%
Chicago Bears	0.78%	1.86%	2.60%	3.66%	4.75%	5.38%	5.90%	6.64%	7.62%	8.05%	8.43%	8.87%	9.43%	9.38%	9.02%	7.65%
Washington Redskins	0.44%	0.95%	1.53%	2.62%	4.22%	5.21%	6.31%	6.92%	7.47%	7.99%	8.49%	8.98%	9.20%	9.46%	10.30%	9.90%
Dallas Cowboys	0.44%	0.85%	1.49%	2.56%	4.04%	5.20%	6.05%	6.65%	7.36%	7.81%	8.46%	8.91%	9.31%	9.67%	10.80%	10.41%
Arizona Cardinals	0.30%	1.14%	2.07%	2.99%	3.71%	4.44%	5.25%	6.03%	6.57%	7.23%	8.48%	9.21%	9.41%	9.74%	10.60%	12.84%
New Orleans Saints	0.33%	1.20%	1.93%	2.50%	3.42%	4.27%	4.84%	5.54%	6.53%	7.30%	7.81%	8.76%	10.03%	11.66%	11.81%	12.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.38%	0.81%	1.28%	1.79%	2.51%	3.21%	3.93%	4.83%	5.81%	7.06%	8.35%	10.06%	12.17%	15.32%	22.42%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Philadelphia Eagles	27.61%	23.24%	11.51%	10.58%	5.75%	5.69%	3.35%	3.13%	1.81%	1.79%	1.12%	1.05%	0.66%	0.60%	0.44%	0.42%	0.28%	0.23%	0.17%	0.14%	0.09%	0.09%	0.07%	0.05%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	26.42%	17.38%	12.97%	8.31%	7.51%	5.14%	4.58%	3.30%	3.20%	2.12%	1.91%	1.36%	1.34%	0.93%	0.78%	0.53%	0.55%	0.40%	0.34%	0.21%	0.19%	0.14%	0.09%	0.09%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	11.58%	10.64%	12.34%	8.82%	9.25%	6.57%	6.89%	4.85%	4.93%	3.43%	3.61%	2.62%	2.68%	1.80%	1.87%	1.42%	1.40%	1.08%	0.92%	0.63%	0.58%	0.49%	0.41%	0.34%	0.25%	0.19%	0.16%	0.10%	0.07%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.23%	7.28%	9.24%	7.80%	8.82%	6.82%	7.12%	5.88%	5.55%	4.41%	4.37%	3.64%	3.65%	2.57%	2.59%	2.22%	2.00%	1.62%	1.36%	1.11%	1.01%	0.80%	0.74%	0.58%	0.44%	0.33%	0.26%	0.20%	0.16%	0.10%	0.08%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	4.14%	5.29%	7.16%	6.49%	7.74%	6.30%	6.79%	5.73%	5.91%	4.60%	5.04%	4.00%	4.39%	3.46%	3.19%	2.65%	2.87%	2.34%	2.17%	1.58%	1.59%	1.33%	1.24%	0.92%	0.80%	0.57%	0.52%	0.40%	0.33%	0.22%	0.17%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	3.53%	5.62%	5.86%	7.70%	6.21%	7.50%	5.88%	6.54%	5.06%	5.69%	4.27%	4.72%	3.40%	3.76%	3.14%	3.06%	2.36%	2.30%	1.94%	2.01%	1.62%	1.50%	1.17%	1.11%	0.94%	0.81%	0.69%	0.54%	0.42%	0.33%	0.22%	0.13%
New York Jets	3.95%	4.57%	5.52%	4.97%	6.09%	5.45%	6.37%	5.41%	6.69%	4.93%	5.62%	4.62%	4.98%	3.79%	3.76%	3.03%	3.32%	2.70%	2.43%	1.79%	1.85%	1.56%	1.47%	1.15%	0.96%	0.77%	0.70%	0.56%	0.41%	0.29%	0.19%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	2.41%	4.45%	5.12%	7.18%	5.79%	7.42%	5.68%	6.53%	4.90%	5.81%	4.33%	4.61%	3.65%	3.94%	3.48%	3.47%	2.59%	2.55%	2.36%	2.22%	1.86%	1.66%	1.46%	1.30%	1.10%	1.02%	0.87%	0.71%	0.55%	0.45%	0.32%	0.20%
San Diego Chargers	2.56%	3.56%	4.96%	4.93%	5.89%	5.16%	6.09%	5.21%	5.79%	4.65%	5.29%	4.49%	5.11%	3.92%	4.06%	3.48%	3.76%	3.13%	2.78%	2.36%	2.33%	1.98%	1.82%	1.48%	1.24%	0.99%	0.87%	0.67%	0.57%	0.42%	0.30%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	2.69%	4.25%	4.54%	5.94%	5.12%	6.10%	5.16%	5.78%	4.81%	5.82%	4.41%	4.93%	3.75%	4.31%	3.61%	3.66%	2.92%	2.90%	2.57%	2.60%	2.20%	1.97%	1.77%	1.60%	1.39%	1.26%	1.04%	0.93%	0.70%	0.59%	0.42%	0.26%
Seattle Seahawks	1.85%	3.12%	3.95%	5.51%	5.01%	6.67%	5.44%	6.77%	4.97%	6.25%	4.53%	4.78%	3.82%	4.74%	3.72%	3.73%	2.64%	2.99%	2.62%	2.75%	2.11%	1.95%	1.69%	1.74%	1.37%	1.25%	0.97%	0.87%	0.74%	0.62%	0.49%	0.33%
Baltimore Ravens	2.03%	2.65%	4.03%	3.92%	5.13%	4.45%	5.69%	5.11%	5.85%	4.93%	5.89%	5.08%	5.56%	4.11%	4.49%	4.03%	3.92%	3.21%	3.02%	2.46%	2.54%	2.08%	2.00%	1.56%	1.48%	1.14%	1.04%	0.80%	0.70%	0.54%	0.36%	0.19%
Carolina Panthers	0.58%	1.21%	1.68%	2.71%	2.64%	3.52%	3.33%	3.88%	3.75%	4.41%	3.90%	4.31%	3.86%	4.62%	4.23%	4.42%	3.64%	4.23%	3.75%	4.24%	3.42%	3.75%	3.01%	3.42%	2.80%	2.92%	2.53%	2.43%	2.06%	1.98%	1.56%	1.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.63%	1.00%	1.74%	1.84%	2.50%	2.33%	3.17%	2.92%	3.77%	3.21%	4.28%	3.74%	4.78%	3.68%	4.45%	3.96%	5.23%	4.33%	4.83%	3.98%	4.55%	4.07%	4.04%	3.57%	3.12%	2.99%	2.66%	2.40%	2.02%	1.82%	1.46%	0.95%
St. Louis Rams	0.36%	0.74%	1.22%	1.78%	2.03%	2.95%	2.87%	3.60%	3.35%	4.42%	3.88%	4.51%	3.86%	5.30%	4.49%	5.03%	3.64%	4.51%	4.15%	4.55%	3.61%	3.69%	3.41%	3.81%	3.15%	3.02%	2.62%	2.35%	2.16%	1.96%	1.73%	1.25%
Buffalo Bills	0.53%	0.78%	1.21%	1.39%	1.99%	1.98%	2.71%	2.85%	3.58%	3.16%	4.01%	3.85%	4.93%	4.21%	4.43%	4.14%	5.61%	4.96%	5.05%	4.20%	4.61%	4.25%	4.09%	3.41%	3.53%	3.06%	3.01%	2.39%	2.21%	1.65%	1.42%	0.81%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.32%	0.80%	1.19%	2.01%	1.89%	2.84%	2.55%	3.32%	3.08%	3.98%	3.54%	4.06%	3.48%	4.40%	3.89%	4.37%	3.66%	4.21%	3.97%	4.54%	3.83%	4.11%	3.51%	3.78%	3.54%	3.53%	3.12%	3.21%	2.74%	2.60%	2.14%	1.80%
Tennessee Titans	0.34%	0.63%	1.20%	1.31%	1.93%	1.88%	2.63%	2.60%	3.42%	2.99%	3.91%	3.70%	4.44%	3.68%	4.43%	4.32%	4.83%	4.32%	4.56%	3.95%	4.51%	4.09%	4.06%	3.77%	3.67%	3.40%	3.22%	3.00%	2.81%	2.54%	2.15%	1.69%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.27%	0.49%	1.04%	1.06%	1.59%	1.51%	2.25%	2.11%	2.86%	2.41%	3.52%	3.04%	4.18%	3.32%	4.37%	3.76%	4.75%	4.13%	4.62%	3.98%	4.83%	4.34%	4.61%	4.23%	4.10%	3.92%	3.75%	3.67%	3.30%	3.17%	2.68%	2.13%
Detroit Lions	0.20%	0.47%	0.62%	1.02%	1.11%	1.55%	1.66%	2.04%	2.16%	2.80%	2.52%	3.23%	3.00%	3.52%	3.54%	4.09%	3.71%	4.13%	4.06%	4.76%	4.37%	4.50%	4.38%	4.48%	4.49%	4.56%	4.42%	4.46%	4.08%	3.83%	3.42%	2.81%
New York Giants	0.14%	0.36%	0.41%	0.69%	0.85%	1.16%	1.37%	1.88%	1.88%	2.84%	2.51%	3.37%	2.87%	4.15%	3.60%	4.39%	3.48%	4.40%	4.15%	5.07%	4.01%	4.78%	4.32%	4.86%	4.26%	4.65%	4.27%	4.46%	4.08%	4.05%	3.49%	3.22%
Chicago Bears	0.15%	0.34%	0.50%	0.86%	0.95%	1.28%	1.38%	1.80%	1.85%	2.44%	2.36%	2.92%	2.61%	3.19%	3.26%	3.73%	3.54%	3.88%	3.73%	4.54%	4.45%	4.58%	4.56%	4.57%	4.84%	4.88%	4.80%	4.82%	4.70%	4.62%	4.15%	3.73%
Washington Redskins	0.06%	0.19%	0.25%	0.48%	0.53%	0.82%	0.88%	1.26%	1.37%	2.09%	1.95%	2.72%	2.34%	3.42%	3.12%	3.68%	3.19%	4.03%	3.96%	4.67%	4.01%	4.53%	4.47%	5.00%	4.81%	5.04%	4.86%	5.18%	5.23%	5.36%	5.23%	5.25%
Dallas Cowboys	0.08%	0.19%	0.22%	0.45%	0.51%	0.78%	0.88%	1.22%	1.38%	1.93%	2.05%	2.61%	2.17%	3.31%	3.06%	3.68%	3.08%	3.89%	3.82%	4.48%	4.08%	4.49%	4.40%	5.07%	4.74%	5.08%	4.97%	5.35%	5.30%	5.82%	5.41%	5.51%
Arizona Cardinals	0.07%	0.14%	0.27%	0.49%	0.56%	0.96%	0.94%	1.39%	1.36%	1.93%	1.75%	2.18%	2.11%	2.92%	2.86%	3.14%	2.75%	3.58%	3.53%	4.25%	3.93%	4.37%	4.41%	5.08%	4.77%	5.18%	4.98%	5.49%	5.58%	5.79%	6.37%	6.86%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.16%	0.28%	0.50%	0.59%	0.89%	0.90%	1.19%	1.31%	1.82%	1.76%	2.08%	2.04%	2.65%	2.71%	3.05%	2.97%	3.30%	3.51%	4.18%	3.81%	4.34%	4.38%	4.68%	4.93%	5.47%	5.63%	6.12%	5.99%	6.17%	6.03%	6.52%
Houston Texans	0.07%	0.14%	0.32%	0.37%	0.60%	0.59%	0.95%	0.95%	1.33%	1.23%	1.89%	1.80%	2.44%	2.05%	2.74%	2.70%	3.74%	3.43%	4.00%	3.59%	4.41%	4.60%	5.00%	4.86%	5.46%	5.44%	5.94%	5.97%	6.06%	6.26%	5.74%	5.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%	0.11%	0.25%	0.31%	0.48%	0.56%	0.90%	0.87%	1.31%	1.11%	1.84%	1.81%	2.23%	2.03%	2.76%	2.59%	3.70%	3.24%	3.83%	3.70%	4.93%	4.75%	5.25%	5.27%	5.52%	5.43%	5.64%	5.43%	6.07%	5.63%	6.24%	6.16%
Miami Dolphins	0.04%	0.10%	0.15%	0.19%	0.34%	0.35%	0.59%	0.65%	1.04%	0.91%	1.29%	1.36%	1.91%	1.75%	2.16%	2.23%	3.46%	3.15%	3.61%	3.14%	4.35%	4.35%	5.17%	4.74%	6.12%	5.96%	6.91%	6.70%	6.97%	6.75%	6.82%	6.74%
San Francisco 49ers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.16%	0.17%	0.33%	0.33%	0.58%	0.62%	0.85%	0.81%	1.09%	1.31%	1.81%	1.69%	1.98%	1.91%	2.54%	2.75%	3.39%	3.12%	3.67%	3.79%	4.82%	4.97%	5.57%	5.81%	6.76%	7.45%	8.70%	10.11%	12.85%
Oakland Raiders	<0.01%	0.03%	0.13%	0.12%	0.22%	0.27%	0.39%	0.38%	0.61%	0.57%	1.07%	0.93%	1.30%	1.11%	1.60%	1.62%	2.55%	2.24%	2.92%	2.49%	3.67%	3.64%	4.71%	4.33%	5.94%	5.93%	7.17%	7.25%	8.13%	8.88%	9.59%	10.21%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.18%	0.17%	0.29%	0.30%	0.49%	0.46%	0.77%	0.78%	1.16%	0.97%	1.49%	1.44%	1.95%	2.06%	2.54%	2.44%	3.54%	3.55%	4.52%	4.37%	5.18%	5.56%	6.52%	6.75%	8.42%	8.79%	11.67%	13.48%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	40.36%	19.27%	10.24%	4.92%	11.97%	5.32%	7.92%
Indianapolis Colts	19.04%	21.34%	18.64%	16.96%	4.26%	4.62%	15.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.10%	15.64%	18.03%	17.98%	6.24%	6.49%	23.52%
Denver Broncos	7.43%	12.05%	14.04%	13.79%	8.17%	9.45%	35.08%
New York Jets	7.38%	5.88%	4.02%	2.40%	23.47%	14.33%	42.52%
San Diego Chargers	4.94%	8.85%	10.69%	11.80%	8.07%	9.88%	45.78%
Baltimore Ravens	4.01%	6.69%	8.98%	10.39%	9.66%	10.61%	49.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.45%	3.15%	4.59%	5.65%	4.83%	7.19%	73.16%
Buffalo Bills	1.20%	1.39%	1.28%	0.87%	8.35%	8.40%	78.51%
Tennessee Titans	0.85%	2.18%	3.26%	4.58%	4.82%	7.27%	77.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.66%	1.86%	2.78%	4.00%	3.96%	6.06%	80.68%
Houston Texans	0.19%	0.62%	1.13%	1.91%	1.73%	3.02%	91.39%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.18%	0.52%	1.16%	2.49%	1.44%	2.56%	91.65%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%	0.19%	0.25%	0.22%	1.93%	2.34%	94.94%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.23%	0.48%	0.84%	0.64%	1.50%	96.28%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.16%	0.42%	1.22%	0.48%	0.97%	96.73%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	57.23%	20.83%	10.58%	4.29%	2.76%	1.60%	2.71%
Green Bay Packers	10.87%	16.06%	13.74%	7.62%	13.56%	9.23%	28.92%
Minnesota Vikings	8.50%	11.94%	10.28%	5.79%	15.05%	10.38%	38.06%
Atlanta Falcons	7.87%	15.28%	15.77%	12.80%	8.25%	7.94%	32.08%
Seattle Seahawks	5.76%	12.38%	15.80%	24.34%	3.99%	5.19%	32.54%
Carolina Panthers	2.50%	5.93%	7.77%	7.83%	7.47%	8.33%	60.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.53%	4.36%	6.02%	6.13%	6.51%	8.00%	67.44%
St. Louis Rams	1.45%	4.31%	7.30%	13.72%	4.96%	6.92%	61.34%
Detroit Lions	1.09%	2.23%	2.78%	2.31%	6.12%	6.57%	78.90%
New York Giants	0.83%	0.93%	0.92%	0.57%	8.29%	7.95%	80.50%
Chicago Bears	0.78%	1.80%	2.31%	1.90%	5.36%	5.96%	81.89%
Washington Redskins	0.44%	0.58%	0.56%	0.44%	5.94%	6.12%	85.91%
Dallas Cowboys	0.44%	0.48%	0.49%	0.38%	5.77%	6.08%	86.36%
New Orleans Saints	0.33%	1.26%	2.09%	2.51%	2.89%	4.21%	86.70%
Arizona Cardinals	0.30%	1.19%	2.52%	6.13%	2.11%	3.61%	84.14%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.42%	1.07%	3.24%	0.96%	1.91%	92.33%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+13.28%

Fortress

56.64%43.36%

Elo Value

Home Edge

28 Elo

0.035 points per Elo point

046.4280

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.51 points

Lean Home

-8+1.63+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.2

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

New England Patriots, 1st of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

17.6%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.49 · As Expected: 1.49 to 2.05 · Elevated: 2.05 to 2.79 · High Variance: 2.79 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.93 · Close: 4.93 to 6.67 · Off Target: 6.67 to 8.7 · Well Off Target: 8.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.65 · As Expected: 2.65 to 4.42 · More Than Expected: 4.42 to 7.08 · Far More Than Expected: 7.08 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.71 wins

As Expected

01.865

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.62

Pinpoint

05.8015

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

99.96%

Pittsburgh Steelers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

4.08%

San Francisco 49ers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 32

Several Outliers

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 12

Fewer Than Expected

03.512

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.88

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

24%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.30

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.86

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.25

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

38%

As Expected

0%35%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.77

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.82

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.053

Within Noise

00.0960.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	82.80%	82.80%	55.50%	33.95%	23.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	93.83%	93.83%	73.26%	54.57%	22.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.54%	64.54%	40.77%	23.80%	16.88%
Indianapolis Colts	72.06%	72.06%	41.75%	21.38%	14.17%
Green Bay Packers	57.62%	57.62%	34.18%	16.12%	5.22%
San Diego Chargers	40.43%	37.66%	17.35%	7.30%	4.48%
Atlanta Falcons	50.58%	50.58%	24.01%	8.90%	2.33%
Denver Broncos	45.45%	39.56%	12.89%	3.73%	1.81%
Baltimore Ravens	39.63%	27.34%	9.34%	3.01%	1.54%
Carolina Panthers	31.41%	27.42%	13.10%	5.11%	1.39%
New York Jets	44.22%	28.53%	8.93%	2.75%	1.34%
Buffalo Bills	18.90%	11.14%	4.61%	1.92%	1.11%
Seattle Seahawks	49.31%	43.96%	15.78%	4.54%	0.89%
Minnesota Vikings	41.50%	39.05%	14.86%	4.31%	0.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	22.25%	13.88%	4.42%	1.29%	0.65%
St. Louis Rams	32.91%	19.67%	5.66%	1.42%	0.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26.66%	16.85%	5.27%	1.32%	0.23%
New Orleans Saints	11.71%	7.46%	2.75%	0.86%	0.20%
Jacksonville Jaguars	16.80%	7.18%	1.65%	0.36%	0.14%
Washington Redskins	13.06%	6.23%	2.01%	0.70%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.66%	3.29%	0.87%	0.23%	0.12%
New York Giants	17.73%	7.47%	1.95%	0.52%	0.09%
Detroit Lions	17.78%	9.37%	2.57%	0.58%	0.09%
Arizona Cardinals	14.37%	7.03%	1.74%	0.42%	0.06%
Houston Texans	7.80%	2.98%	0.66%	0.13%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	12.72%	4.75%	1.16%	0.31%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	15.52%	6.65%	1.43%	0.26%	0.04%
Tennessee Titans	19.92%	6.22%	0.86%	0.10%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	4.73%	1.18%	0.20%	0.03%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	3.08%	0.82%	0.12%	0.02%	<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	7.18%	2.04%	0.27%	0.04%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	3.45%	0.81%	0.07%	0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		43.8%2.02%	62.7%0.55%	75.3%0.19%	49.0%4.93%	65.2%0.81%	26.2%4.83%	65.9%1.73%	50.2%2.13%	78.9%0.50%	22.5%3.83%	57.4%4.73%	84.0%0.34%	22.4%6.71%	34.8%4.35%	79.4%1.98%
Buffalo Bills	56.2%2.02%		65.8%0.39%	84.0%0.20%	57.5%2.53%	68.8%0.29%	32.8%3.08%	70.4%0.60%	59.1%0.98%	74.4%0.04%	26.8%1.68%	61.2%0.64%	87.5%0.12%	26.3%3.48%	39.0%2.12%	83.8%0.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	37.3%0.55%	34.2%0.39%		60.0%0.02%	40.2%0.89%	65.5%0.14%	18.7%0.88%	54.5%0.31%	40.1%0.43%	72.5%0.09%	16.7%0.73%	47.4%0.92%	78.1%0.07%	15.0%1.05%	25.6%0.87%	76.3%0.30%
Cleveland Browns	24.7%0.19%	16.0%0.20%	40.0%0.02%		26.2%0.35%	32.7%0.06%	9.7%0.33%	44.0%0.11%	18.0%0.18%	35.9%0.04%	9.2%0.34%	26.4%0.42%	45.8%0.02%	9.0%0.40%	15.1%0.29%	53.0%0.13%
Denver Broncos	51.0%4.93%	42.5%2.53%	59.8%0.89%	73.8%0.35%		67.9%1.05%	24.8%5.00%	66.1%2.29%	50.9%2.87%	76.7%0.63%	23.0%3.91%	56.9%6.12%	83.0%0.38%	22.0%5.40%	34.8%6.38%	80.5%2.71%
Houston Texans	34.8%0.81%	31.2%0.29%	34.5%0.14%	67.3%0.06%	32.1%1.05%		17.7%1.19%	49.2%0.13%	38.5%0.45%	71.8%0.08%	13.7%0.72%	42.6%0.73%	65.2%0.07%	12.1%1.07%	19.6%0.83%	65.2%0.18%
Indianapolis Colts	73.8%4.83%	67.2%3.08%	81.3%0.88%	90.3%0.33%	75.2%5.00%	82.3%1.19%		83.1%2.57%	75.5%3.05%	90.4%0.77%	48.7%3.44%	77.8%6.86%	92.5%0.52%	45.3%3.85%	61.3%4.86%	91.0%3.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	34.1%1.73%	29.6%0.60%	45.5%0.31%	56.0%0.11%	33.9%2.29%	50.8%0.13%	16.9%2.57%		36.1%0.96%	69.0%0.16%	12.9%1.46%	41.4%1.58%	63.9%0.13%	12.1%2.38%	23.3%1.97%	66.5%0.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	49.8%2.13%	40.9%0.98%	59.9%0.43%	82.0%0.18%	49.1%2.87%	61.5%0.45%	24.5%3.05%	63.9%0.96%		73.9%0.26%	22.6%1.99%	56.4%2.52%	75.8%0.12%	19.3%2.92%	33.6%2.23%	78.5%1.16%
Miami Dolphins	21.1%0.50%	25.6%0.04%	27.5%0.09%	64.1%0.04%	23.3%0.63%	28.2%0.08%	9.6%0.77%	31.0%0.16%	26.1%0.26%		9.1%0.46%	24.3%0.14%	56.8%0.04%	8.2%0.83%	13.8%0.53%	53.3%0.17%
New England Patriots	77.5%3.83%	73.2%1.68%	83.3%0.73%	90.8%0.34%	77.0%3.91%	86.3%0.72%	51.3%3.44%	87.1%1.46%	77.4%1.99%	90.9%0.46%		80.0%4.24%	95.3%0.30%	47.0%4.33%	64.0%3.31%	93.2%1.71%
New York Jets	42.6%4.73%	38.8%0.64%	52.6%0.92%	73.6%0.42%	43.1%6.12%	57.4%0.73%	22.2%6.86%	58.6%1.58%	43.6%2.52%	75.7%0.14%	20.0%4.24%		78.9%0.36%	18.1%7.97%	29.9%5.10%	74.1%1.89%
Oakland Raiders	16.0%0.34%	12.5%0.12%	21.9%0.07%	54.2%0.02%	17.0%0.38%	34.8%0.07%	7.5%0.52%	36.1%0.13%	24.2%0.12%	43.2%0.04%	4.7%0.30%	21.1%0.36%		5.2%0.48%	8.1%0.32%	44.0%0.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	77.6%6.71%	73.7%3.48%	85.0%1.05%	91.0%0.40%	78.0%5.40%	87.9%1.07%	54.7%3.85%	87.9%2.38%	80.7%2.92%	91.8%0.83%	53.0%4.33%	81.9%7.97%	94.8%0.48%		66.8%5.01%	93.6%2.86%
San Diego Chargers	65.2%4.35%	61.0%2.12%	74.4%0.87%	84.9%0.29%	65.2%6.38%	80.4%0.83%	38.7%4.86%	76.7%1.97%	66.4%2.23%	86.2%0.53%	36.0%3.31%	70.1%5.10%	91.9%0.32%	33.2%5.01%		87.1%2.27%
Tennessee Titans	20.6%1.98%	16.2%0.73%	23.7%0.30%	47.0%0.13%	19.5%2.71%	34.8%0.18%	9.0%3.24%	33.5%0.44%	21.5%1.16%	46.7%0.17%	6.8%1.71%	25.9%1.89%	56.0%0.17%	6.4%2.86%	12.9%2.27%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		29.1%1.70%	25.6%1.16%	64.9%0.69%	56.4%0.57%	49.8%0.66%	22.4%1.70%	42.9%1.83%	36.5%0.47%	53.9%0.64%	13.3%0.67%	65.1%0.15%	38.7%1.75%	46.8%0.82%	47.4%1.03%	44.5%0.52%
Atlanta Falcons	70.9%1.70%		47.9%4.80%	80.3%2.14%	76.5%1.77%	74.1%2.48%	41.5%5.27%	63.6%5.24%	59.2%1.53%	73.8%2.43%	26.2%1.60%	87.0%0.89%	58.4%5.20%	67.7%3.95%	67.5%3.88%	67.7%1.90%
Carolina Panthers	74.4%1.16%	52.1%4.80%		79.3%1.33%	77.2%0.94%	74.9%1.47%	41.8%3.89%	63.9%3.47%	62.4%0.72%	75.3%1.42%	25.1%1.62%	83.4%0.63%	60.6%4.36%	67.8%2.80%	68.5%1.83%	68.7%0.96%
Chicago Bears	35.1%0.69%	19.7%2.14%	20.7%1.33%		52.7%0.32%	38.2%0.35%	14.7%1.78%	29.9%1.30%	29.0%0.45%	43.7%0.50%	7.7%1.05%	59.0%0.27%	27.0%2.58%	30.8%1.43%	33.5%0.97%	34.0%0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	43.6%0.57%	23.5%1.77%	22.8%0.94%	47.3%0.32%		48.8%0.41%	17.6%1.50%	34.6%1.24%	27.5%0.28%	48.1%0.05%	11.4%1.00%	65.5%0.29%	30.9%2.31%	39.0%1.28%	38.5%0.72%	40.4%0.05%
Detroit Lions	50.2%0.66%	25.9%2.48%	25.1%1.47%	61.8%0.35%	51.2%0.41%		19.4%2.08%	38.0%1.58%	36.4%0.52%	56.7%0.62%	10.8%1.11%	68.6%0.33%	34.8%2.90%	42.7%1.62%	42.0%1.26%	41.6%0.38%
Green Bay Packers	77.6%1.70%	58.5%5.27%	58.2%3.89%	85.3%1.78%	82.4%1.50%	80.6%2.08%		71.3%6.29%	67.7%1.41%	81.9%2.13%	33.7%2.12%	87.4%0.91%	68.3%5.97%	74.7%4.24%	74.8%3.16%	75.5%1.70%
Minnesota Vikings	57.1%1.83%	36.4%5.24%	36.1%3.47%	70.1%1.30%	65.4%1.24%	62.0%1.58%	28.7%6.29%		43.9%1.28%	64.5%1.62%	16.9%2.27%	76.0%0.88%	44.6%6.36%	53.4%3.89%	55.1%3.02%	53.5%1.23%
New Orleans Saints	63.5%0.47%	40.8%1.53%	37.6%0.72%	71.0%0.45%	72.5%0.28%	63.6%0.52%	32.3%1.41%	56.1%1.28%		70.8%0.45%	15.7%0.64%	80.8%0.21%	49.2%1.77%	59.4%1.03%	61.8%0.57%	60.1%0.36%
New York Giants	46.1%0.64%	26.2%2.43%	24.7%1.42%	56.3%0.50%	51.9%0.05%	43.3%0.62%	18.1%2.13%	35.5%1.62%	29.2%0.45%		11.7%1.37%	65.0%0.36%	34.6%3.16%	41.7%1.71%	43.2%1.18%	44.0%0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	86.7%0.67%	73.8%1.60%	74.9%1.62%	92.3%1.05%	88.6%1.00%	89.2%1.11%	66.3%2.12%	83.1%2.27%	84.3%0.64%	88.3%1.37%		96.0%0.35%	80.5%1.47%	86.6%1.48%	86.5%1.48%	83.2%1.01%
San Francisco 49ers	34.9%0.15%	13.0%0.89%	16.6%0.63%	41.0%0.27%	34.5%0.29%	31.4%0.33%	12.6%0.91%	24.0%0.88%	19.2%0.21%	35.0%0.36%	4.0%0.35%		21.9%0.76%	25.4%0.37%	25.7%0.55%	24.0%0.24%
Seattle Seahawks	61.3%1.75%	41.6%5.20%	39.4%4.36%	73.0%2.58%	69.1%2.31%	65.2%2.90%	31.7%5.97%	55.4%6.36%	50.8%1.77%	65.4%3.16%	19.5%1.47%	78.1%0.76%		57.5%4.57%	59.9%3.81%	56.4%2.34%
St. Louis Rams	53.2%0.82%	32.3%3.95%	32.2%2.80%	69.2%1.43%	61.0%1.28%	57.3%1.62%	25.3%4.24%	46.6%3.89%	40.6%1.03%	58.3%1.71%	13.4%1.48%	74.6%0.37%	42.5%4.57%		50.8%2.48%	50.2%1.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	52.6%1.03%	32.5%3.88%	31.5%1.83%	66.5%0.97%	61.5%0.72%	58.0%1.26%	25.2%3.16%	44.9%3.02%	38.2%0.57%	56.8%1.18%	13.5%1.48%	74.3%0.55%	40.1%3.81%	49.2%2.48%		49.8%0.72%
Washington Redskins	55.5%0.52%	32.3%1.90%	31.3%0.96%	66.0%0.35%	59.6%0.05%	58.4%0.38%	24.5%1.70%	46.5%1.23%	39.9%0.36%	56.0%0.07%	16.8%1.01%	76.0%0.24%	43.6%2.34%	49.8%1.23%	50.2%0.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		42.6%0.59%	58.6%0.07%	72.7%0.01%	51.0%3.00%	62.1%0.22%	28.3%6.30%	64.9%0.55%	51.2%0.89%	75.0%0.06%	23.3%7.26%	51.3%1.71%	85.7%0.05%	23.2%3.43%	34.9%2.74%	80.1%0.45%
Buffalo Bills	57.4%0.59%		63.2%0.06%	93.3%0.01%	63.4%1.00%	82.0%0.05%	35.9%2.20%	76.6%0.11%	60.4%0.29%	86.7%0.01%	31.1%3.66%	61.7%0.57%	92.3%0.01%	31.5%1.65%	44.7%0.81%	85.8%0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	41.4%0.07%	36.8%0.06%		0.0%<0.01%	44.2%0.34%	39.1%0.02%	18.2%0.83%	61.1%0.05%	44.6%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	18.1%1.02%	44.3%0.21%	37.5%<0.01%	19.2%0.23%	25.5%0.29%	60.4%0.05%
Cleveland Browns	27.3%0.01%	6.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		24.5%0.09%	0.0%<0.01%	10.7%0.20%	31.8%0.02%	25.8%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	6.9%0.25%	28.3%0.05%		7.5%0.05%	16.9%0.08%	40.0%0.01%
Denver Broncos	49.0%3.00%	36.6%1.00%	55.8%0.34%	75.5%0.09%		63.4%0.33%	27.8%9.97%	63.6%0.77%	53.1%0.67%	67.9%0.11%	23.0%9.57%	52.5%2.65%	71.4%0.03%	24.2%8.16%	35.2%2.19%	78.4%0.66%
Houston Texans	37.9%0.22%	18.0%0.05%	60.9%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	36.6%0.33%		19.6%0.33%	44.4%<0.01%	27.4%0.10%	40.0%<0.01%	14.1%0.90%	40.5%0.15%	60.0%0.01%	12.0%0.59%	26.1%0.25%	50.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	71.7%6.30%	64.1%2.20%	81.8%0.83%	89.3%0.20%	72.2%9.97%	80.4%0.33%		81.6%0.99%	71.2%3.33%	88.1%0.24%	42.7%16.07%	72.8%5.15%	94.1%0.20%	44.3%16.11%	58.6%9.37%	89.8%0.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	35.1%0.55%	23.4%0.11%	38.9%0.05%	68.2%0.02%	36.4%0.77%	55.6%<0.01%	18.4%0.99%		39.7%0.23%	68.8%0.02%	14.9%1.94%	34.8%0.40%	80.0%0.01%	14.8%1.33%	24.2%0.71%	58.8%0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	48.8%0.89%	39.6%0.29%	55.4%0.10%	74.2%0.03%	46.9%0.67%	72.6%0.10%	28.8%3.33%	60.3%0.23%		70.4%0.03%	22.3%3.83%	52.0%0.92%	100.0%<0.01%	22.6%2.71%	32.9%0.54%	77.7%0.21%
Miami Dolphins	25.0%0.06%	13.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	32.1%0.11%	60.0%<0.01%	11.9%0.24%	31.2%0.02%	29.6%0.03%		11.6%0.35%	27.8%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	8.2%0.19%	22.1%0.10%	44.4%0.02%
New England Patriots	76.7%7.26%	68.9%3.66%	81.9%1.02%	93.1%0.25%	77.0%9.57%	85.9%0.90%	57.3%16.07%	85.1%1.94%	77.7%3.83%	88.4%0.35%		77.4%9.35%	94.4%0.25%	51.4%16.67%	65.3%10.15%	90.8%1.52%
New York Jets	48.7%1.71%	38.3%0.57%	55.7%0.21%	71.7%0.05%	47.5%2.65%	59.5%0.15%	27.2%5.15%	65.2%0.40%	48.0%0.92%	72.2%0.04%	22.6%9.35%		89.8%0.05%	22.9%4.57%	32.8%2.35%	74.5%0.36%
Oakland Raiders	14.3%0.05%	7.7%0.01%	62.5%<0.01%		28.6%0.03%	40.0%0.01%	5.9%0.20%	20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	5.6%0.25%	10.2%0.05%		6.2%0.14%	8.3%0.02%	55.6%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.8%3.43%	68.5%1.65%	80.8%0.23%	92.5%0.05%	75.8%8.16%	88.0%0.59%	55.7%16.11%	85.2%1.33%	77.4%2.71%	91.8%0.19%	48.6%16.67%	77.1%4.57%	93.8%0.14%		64.0%7.38%	91.5%1.32%
San Diego Chargers	65.1%2.74%	55.3%0.81%	74.5%0.29%	83.1%0.08%	64.8%2.19%	73.9%0.25%	41.4%9.37%	75.8%0.71%	67.1%0.54%	77.9%0.10%	34.7%10.15%	67.2%2.35%	91.7%0.02%	36.0%7.38%		88.0%0.65%
Tennessee Titans	19.9%0.45%	14.2%0.13%	39.6%0.05%	60.0%0.01%	21.6%0.66%	50.0%<0.01%	10.2%0.80%	41.2%0.03%	22.3%0.21%	55.6%0.02%	9.2%1.52%	25.5%0.36%	44.4%<0.01%	8.5%1.32%	12.0%0.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		29.5%0.91%	24.9%0.42%	52.7%0.11%	38.1%0.04%	48.3%0.12%	22.1%1.20%	41.3%0.78%	29.9%0.09%	62.3%0.06%	12.9%2.73%	60.0%<0.01%	32.7%0.21%	55.2%0.07%	44.4%0.24%	36.0%0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	70.5%0.91%		46.5%2.21%	76.7%1.00%	72.8%0.50%	70.7%1.34%	40.0%10.38%	60.4%6.61%	57.4%0.49%	70.5%0.68%	25.6%14.26%	83.9%0.28%	60.5%6.98%	66.5%2.91%	65.5%1.31%	60.9%0.70%
Carolina Panthers	75.1%0.42%	53.5%2.21%		80.9%0.49%	67.0%0.21%	72.3%0.67%	41.5%4.75%	62.3%3.37%	63.2%0.15%	72.4%0.38%	28.1%9.30%	85.3%0.10%	61.7%3.40%	69.3%1.25%	66.5%0.46%	65.7%0.29%
Chicago Bears	47.3%0.11%	23.3%1.00%	19.1%0.49%		29.2%0.05%	42.5%0.07%	13.7%0.70%	36.0%0.39%	26.6%0.13%	36.3%0.09%	9.2%2.12%	61.5%0.04%	28.7%0.83%	42.6%0.32%	36.4%0.23%	34.2%0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	61.9%0.04%	27.2%0.50%	33.0%0.21%	70.8%0.05%		50.0%0.07%	20.0%0.56%	38.1%0.38%	18.6%0.04%	56.2%0.03%	14.2%2.23%	61.1%0.02%	37.3%0.34%	42.5%0.13%	46.9%0.14%	26.7%0.01%
Detroit Lions	51.7%0.12%	29.3%1.34%	27.7%0.67%	57.5%0.07%	50.0%0.07%		22.3%1.03%	37.8%0.65%	36.8%0.15%	37.1%0.10%	11.9%3.09%	81.6%0.04%	40.6%1.10%	45.1%0.44%	49.1%0.41%	38.5%0.10%
Green Bay Packers	77.9%1.20%	60.0%10.38%	58.5%4.75%	86.3%0.70%	80.0%0.56%	77.7%1.03%		71.0%5.70%	69.9%1.35%	77.5%0.84%	34.6%15.23%	90.2%0.36%	69.6%8.40%	75.5%3.33%	74.1%3.11%	69.6%0.68%
Minnesota Vikings	58.7%0.78%	39.6%6.61%	37.7%3.37%	64.0%0.39%	61.9%0.38%	62.2%0.65%	29.0%5.70%		44.7%0.78%	60.3%0.63%	19.6%9.72%	80.3%0.23%	49.9%5.11%	57.4%2.29%	54.7%1.89%	50.0%0.53%
New Orleans Saints	70.1%0.09%	42.6%0.49%	36.8%0.15%	73.4%0.13%	81.4%0.04%	63.2%0.15%	30.1%1.35%	55.3%0.78%		51.7%0.09%	20.7%2.93%	76.2%0.02%	53.5%0.78%	61.6%0.31%	52.6%0.10%	58.6%0.06%
New York Giants	37.7%0.06%	29.5%0.68%	27.6%0.38%	63.7%0.09%	43.8%0.03%	62.9%0.10%	22.5%0.84%	39.7%0.63%	48.3%0.09%		13.9%3.40%	70.6%0.02%	43.6%0.63%	47.0%0.23%	49.6%0.25%	42.9%0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	87.1%2.73%	74.4%14.26%	71.9%9.30%	90.8%2.12%	85.8%2.23%	88.1%3.09%	65.4%15.23%	80.4%9.72%	79.3%2.93%	86.1%3.40%		92.6%0.80%	81.2%12.81%	85.7%6.66%	84.6%5.73%	81.7%2.84%
San Francisco 49ers	40.0%<0.01%	16.1%0.28%	14.7%0.10%	38.5%0.04%	38.9%0.02%	18.4%0.04%	9.8%0.36%	19.7%0.23%	23.8%0.02%	29.4%0.02%	7.4%0.80%		28.6%0.04%	41.7%0.01%	18.1%0.07%	14.3%0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	67.3%0.21%	39.5%6.98%	38.3%3.40%	71.3%0.83%	62.7%0.34%	59.4%1.10%	30.4%8.40%	50.1%5.11%	46.5%0.78%	56.4%0.63%	18.8%12.81%	71.4%0.04%		57.7%0.80%	56.5%2.01%	50.6%0.54%
St. Louis Rams	44.8%0.07%	33.5%2.91%	30.7%1.25%	57.4%0.32%	57.5%0.13%	54.9%0.44%	24.5%3.33%	42.6%2.29%	38.4%0.31%	53.0%0.23%	14.3%6.66%	58.3%0.01%	42.3%0.80%		48.4%0.75%	48.7%0.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	55.6%0.24%	34.5%1.31%	33.5%0.46%	63.6%0.23%	53.1%0.14%	50.9%0.41%	25.9%3.11%	45.3%1.89%	47.4%0.10%	50.4%0.25%	15.4%5.73%	81.9%0.07%	43.5%2.01%	51.6%0.75%		42.5%0.16%
Washington Redskins	64.0%0.05%	39.1%0.70%	34.3%0.29%	65.8%0.08%	73.3%0.01%	61.5%0.10%	30.4%0.68%	50.0%0.53%	41.4%0.06%	57.1%0.03%	18.3%2.84%	85.7%0.01%	49.4%0.54%	51.3%0.16%	57.5%0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		35.7%0.23%	80.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	54.9%0.58%	45.5%0.02%	31.3%2.05%	60.6%0.07%	56.8%0.20%	80.0%0.01%	24.6%3.55%	51.2%0.43%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%1.35%	39.1%0.79%	78.8%0.03%
Buffalo Bills	64.3%0.23%		75.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	60.3%0.30%	76.9%0.01%	39.6%1.14%	79.4%0.03%	66.7%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%	31.3%1.05%	59.5%0.13%		33.3%1.10%	47.4%0.46%	82.6%0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	20.0%0.03%	24.1%0.03%			54.8%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	21.8%0.19%	77.8%<0.01%	45.0%0.02%		15.8%0.31%	44.9%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.10%	40.8%0.07%	33.3%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	6.7%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		12.5%0.04%	37.5%<0.01%		23.1%0.01%	0.0%0.01%
Denver Broncos	45.1%0.58%	39.7%0.30%	45.2%0.06%	80.0%0.01%		64.7%0.03%	26.9%2.66%	66.7%0.08%	43.5%0.13%	83.3%0.01%	24.5%4.90%	49.7%0.57%	75.0%<0.01%	24.6%2.89%	36.5%0.59%	75.6%0.04%
Houston Texans	54.5%0.02%	23.1%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	35.3%0.03%		18.1%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	17.4%0.27%	23.8%0.02%		12.2%0.16%	23.5%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	68.7%2.05%	60.4%1.14%	78.2%0.19%	93.3%0.03%	73.1%2.66%	81.9%0.08%		76.3%0.20%	69.8%0.91%	92.9%0.06%	43.1%17.74%	71.8%2.27%	81.2%0.02%	44.5%10.65%	58.6%3.66%	87.6%0.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars	39.4%0.07%	20.6%0.03%	22.2%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	23.7%0.20%		21.9%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	15.1%0.64%	33.3%0.08%		19.5%0.38%	31.9%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	43.2%0.20%	33.3%0.10%	55.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	56.5%0.13%	54.5%0.01%	30.2%0.91%	78.1%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%	21.5%1.55%	46.5%0.20%		24.8%1.03%	33.8%0.21%	90.5%0.02%
Miami Dolphins	20.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			16.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	7.1%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		17.4%0.05%	20.0%<0.01%		10.0%0.05%	12.5%0.02%
New England Patriots	75.4%3.55%	68.7%1.05%	84.2%0.31%	87.5%0.04%	75.5%4.90%	82.6%0.27%	56.9%17.74%	84.9%0.64%	78.5%1.55%	82.6%0.05%		75.9%2.05%	88.9%0.03%	51.1%16.52%	63.5%6.46%	92.0%0.35%
New York Jets	48.8%0.43%	40.5%0.13%	55.1%0.05%	62.5%<0.01%	50.3%0.57%	76.2%0.02%	28.2%2.27%	66.7%0.08%	53.5%0.20%	80.0%<0.01%	24.1%2.05%		50.0%<0.01%	23.5%2.28%	35.4%0.77%	77.5%0.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		25.0%<0.01%		18.8%0.02%				11.1%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%		12.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	75.0%1.35%	66.7%1.10%	76.0%0.10%	76.9%0.01%	75.4%2.89%	87.8%0.16%	55.5%10.65%	80.5%0.38%	75.2%1.03%	90.0%0.05%	48.9%16.52%	76.5%2.28%	87.5%0.02%		64.6%4.06%	88.8%0.18%
San Diego Chargers	60.9%0.79%	52.6%0.46%	59.2%0.07%	100.0%0.01%	63.5%0.59%	76.5%0.05%	41.4%3.66%	68.1%0.12%	66.2%0.21%	87.5%0.02%	36.5%6.46%	64.6%0.77%	100.0%<0.01%	35.4%4.06%		89.2%0.07%
Tennessee Titans	21.2%0.03%	17.4%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%		24.4%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	12.4%0.10%	33.3%<0.01%	9.5%0.02%		8.0%0.35%	22.5%0.04%		11.2%0.18%	10.8%0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		33.1%0.18%	30.4%0.11%	44.4%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	47.4%0.02%	28.9%0.24%	38.4%0.10%	28.6%0.02%	35.7%0.01%	14.5%0.92%		49.0%0.05%	69.2%0.01%	51.5%0.03%	38.5%0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	66.9%0.18%		48.5%0.87%	79.3%0.14%	67.1%0.14%	65.9%0.21%	39.2%3.77%	61.8%1.42%	61.1%0.16%	68.2%0.22%	26.8%14.31%	71.4%0.03%	59.0%1.44%	64.9%0.54%	63.6%0.33%	57.9%0.24%
Carolina Panthers	69.6%0.11%	51.5%0.87%		72.8%0.08%	68.3%0.08%	70.1%0.15%	40.2%2.02%	59.5%0.84%	59.5%0.08%	71.3%0.13%	27.1%7.21%	83.3%0.02%	61.4%0.84%	67.0%0.34%	66.1%0.18%	56.2%0.15%
Chicago Bears	55.6%<0.01%	20.7%0.14%	27.2%0.08%		36.4%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	21.2%0.13%	34.1%0.04%	53.3%0.01%	50.0%0.02%	10.4%0.82%	50.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.08%	37.0%0.03%	37.0%0.03%	23.1%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	42.9%0.01%	32.9%0.14%	31.7%0.08%	63.6%0.01%		16.7%0.01%	22.9%0.22%	47.3%0.09%	53.3%0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	14.1%0.41%	100.0%<0.01%	44.3%0.09%	26.7%0.03%	35.5%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions	52.6%0.02%	34.1%0.21%	29.9%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%	83.3%0.01%		22.8%0.24%	45.9%0.08%	45.5%0.03%	65.4%0.03%	13.6%1.50%	100.0%<0.01%	35.4%0.14%	41.3%0.06%	38.5%0.04%	39.3%0.03%
Green Bay Packers	71.1%0.24%	60.8%3.77%	59.8%2.02%	78.8%0.13%	77.1%0.22%	77.2%0.24%		68.2%1.52%	68.1%0.43%	77.5%0.40%	34.8%20.90%	73.5%0.03%	70.0%2.34%	73.0%0.78%	74.3%0.81%	70.5%0.35%
Minnesota Vikings	61.6%0.10%	38.2%1.42%	40.5%0.84%	65.9%0.04%	52.7%0.09%	54.1%0.08%	31.8%1.52%		47.3%0.17%	67.2%0.13%	19.8%8.90%	64.3%0.01%	51.1%0.80%	55.4%0.29%	58.3%0.31%	50.0%0.15%
New Orleans Saints	71.4%0.02%	38.9%0.16%	40.5%0.08%	46.7%0.01%	46.7%0.01%	54.5%0.03%	31.9%0.43%	52.7%0.17%		62.5%0.02%	20.7%1.49%	50.0%<0.01%	54.5%0.17%	53.6%0.07%	40.6%0.03%	57.1%0.04%
New York Giants	64.3%0.01%	31.8%0.22%	28.7%0.13%	50.0%0.02%	40.0%<0.01%	34.6%0.03%	22.5%0.40%	32.8%0.13%	37.5%0.02%		17.4%0.71%	60.0%<0.01%	41.1%0.15%	46.0%0.05%	46.6%0.06%	60.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	85.5%0.92%	73.2%14.31%	72.9%7.21%	89.6%0.82%	85.9%0.41%	86.4%1.50%	65.2%20.90%	80.2%8.90%	79.3%1.49%	82.6%0.71%		94.4%0.14%	79.9%9.11%	84.2%3.14%	84.3%2.97%	79.0%0.75%
San Francisco 49ers		28.6%0.03%	16.7%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	26.5%0.03%	35.7%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	5.6%0.14%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	51.0%0.05%	41.0%1.44%	38.6%0.84%	68.4%0.08%	55.7%0.09%	64.6%0.14%	30.0%2.34%	48.9%0.80%	45.5%0.17%	58.9%0.15%	20.1%9.11%	100.0%<0.01%		55.3%0.15%	54.3%0.30%	53.2%0.14%
St. Louis Rams	30.8%0.01%	35.1%0.54%	33.0%0.34%	63.0%0.03%	73.3%0.03%	58.7%0.06%	27.0%0.78%	44.6%0.29%	46.4%0.07%	54.0%0.05%	15.8%3.14%	100.0%<0.01%	44.7%0.15%		48.9%0.09%	40.6%0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.5%0.03%	36.4%0.33%	33.9%0.18%	63.0%0.03%	64.5%0.03%	61.5%0.04%	25.7%0.81%	41.7%0.31%	59.4%0.03%	53.4%0.06%	15.7%2.97%	75.0%<0.01%	45.7%0.30%	51.1%0.09%		38.2%0.06%
Washington Redskins	61.5%0.01%	42.1%0.24%	43.8%0.15%	76.9%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	60.7%0.03%	29.5%0.35%	50.0%0.15%	42.9%0.04%	40.0%<0.01%	21.0%0.75%	50.0%<0.01%	46.8%0.14%	59.4%0.06%	61.8%0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	81.8%0.01%	64.0%0.26%	57.5%0.15%	75.0%0.01%	90.0%0.01%	66.7%0.02%	56.0%0.48%	62.3%0.13%	30.0%0.02%	94.4%0.02%	42.6%1.67%	100.0%<0.01%	70.8%0.13%	73.8%0.04%	76.3%0.04%	70.6%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	72.7%0.01%	66.2%0.16%	60.6%0.09%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	84.6%0.01%	63.9%0.29%	81.2%0.08%	70.0%0.02%	81.8%0.01%	49.0%1.07%	0.0%<0.01%	74.7%0.09%	89.3%0.03%	81.2%0.03%	62.5%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.0%<0.01%	52.9%0.02%	37.5%<0.01%			66.7%<0.01%	46.3%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	51.6%0.13%		61.5%0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns		25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%						11.1%<0.01%				50.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	71.4%0.01%	54.5%0.32%	55.4%0.19%	60.0%0.01%	83.3%<0.01%	55.6%0.02%	49.6%0.56%	66.5%0.16%	59.4%0.03%	68.4%0.02%	41.3%2.06%	100.0%<0.01%	69.1%0.18%	66.2%0.07%	71.4%0.05%	68.8%0.03%
Houston Texans		40.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		52.4%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		32.1%0.08%		50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	89.0%0.09%	74.8%1.93%	72.8%1.16%	97.1%0.03%	78.3%0.07%	83.6%0.11%	66.6%3.50%	80.7%0.93%	74.1%0.18%	80.5%0.13%	60.0%11.59%	92.3%0.01%	80.7%0.95%	83.9%0.28%	79.6%0.25%	85.3%0.16%
Jacksonville Jaguars	100.0%<0.01%	48.4%0.03%	31.2%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	38.7%0.06%	78.6%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	33.7%0.20%		50.0%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	54.5%0.01%	58.6%0.11%	64.5%0.06%	55.6%<0.01%	83.3%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	50.7%0.22%	71.7%0.06%	71.4%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	42.9%0.68%		65.5%0.06%	57.1%0.02%	79.2%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins		50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%				25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%		75.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	90.1%0.14%	77.4%3.02%	75.8%1.75%	93.0%0.09%	87.2%0.12%	87.4%0.22%	72.5%5.45%	84.1%1.49%	81.5%0.29%	87.5%0.15%	63.6%18.56%	92.9%0.01%	83.2%1.49%	83.9%0.47%	86.0%0.44%	81.4%0.25%
New York Jets	81.8%0.01%	57.1%0.27%	59.8%0.12%	85.7%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%	83.3%0.02%	50.1%0.45%	65.6%0.12%	70.8%0.02%	50.0%0.01%	39.5%1.46%	100.0%<0.01%	72.3%0.14%	68.6%0.05%	63.2%0.04%	57.9%0.02%
Oakland Raiders							0.0%<0.01%				14.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	84.5%0.08%	77.7%2.10%	78.0%1.22%	84.3%0.07%	87.7%0.07%	88.4%0.12%	71.8%3.89%	83.9%0.97%	82.4%0.21%	88.4%0.14%	65.1%12.93%	100.0%<0.01%	83.7%1.12%	86.9%0.34%	85.8%0.37%	79.9%0.15%
San Diego Chargers	84.1%0.04%	70.5%0.65%	67.7%0.34%	75.0%0.02%	76.2%0.02%	90.5%0.04%	61.1%1.14%	76.8%0.33%	71.0%0.07%	65.5%0.03%	55.1%4.04%		76.4%0.35%	76.0%0.10%	75.0%0.07%	78.0%0.06%
Tennessee Titans	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%				29.4%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	14.8%0.06%		16.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals																	18.2%0.01%	27.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		28.6%0.01%		11.0%0.09%	0.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.01%		9.9%0.14%	18.2%0.01%		15.5%0.08%	15.9%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons																	36.0%0.26%	33.8%0.16%	47.1%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.32%	60.0%<0.01%	25.2%1.93%	51.6%0.03%	41.4%0.11%	50.0%<0.01%	22.6%3.02%	42.9%0.27%		22.3%2.10%	29.5%0.65%	100.0%0.01%
Carolina Panthers																	42.5%0.15%	39.4%0.09%	62.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	44.6%0.19%	50.0%<0.01%	27.2%1.16%	68.8%0.02%	35.5%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	24.2%1.75%	40.2%0.12%		22.0%1.22%	32.3%0.34%	66.7%<0.01%
Chicago Bears																	25.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			40.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	2.9%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%		7.0%0.09%	14.3%<0.01%		15.7%0.07%	25.0%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys																	10.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	21.7%0.07%		16.7%<0.01%		12.8%0.12%	33.3%0.01%		12.3%0.07%	23.8%0.02%
Detroit Lions																	33.3%0.02%	15.4%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		44.4%0.02%		16.4%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%		12.6%0.22%	16.7%0.02%		11.6%0.12%	9.5%0.04%
Green Bay Packers																	44.0%0.48%	36.1%0.29%	53.7%0.04%		50.4%0.56%	47.6%0.02%	33.4%3.50%	61.3%0.06%	49.3%0.22%	75.0%<0.01%	27.5%5.45%	49.9%0.45%	100.0%<0.01%	28.2%3.89%	38.9%1.14%	70.6%0.02%
Minnesota Vikings																	37.7%0.13%	18.8%0.08%	33.3%<0.01%		33.5%0.16%	25.0%<0.01%	19.3%0.93%	21.4%0.01%	28.3%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	15.9%1.49%	34.4%0.12%		16.1%0.97%	23.2%0.33%	100.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints																	70.0%0.02%	30.0%0.02%			40.6%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	25.9%0.18%	0.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	18.5%0.29%	29.2%0.02%		17.6%0.21%	29.0%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants																	5.6%0.02%	18.2%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		31.6%0.02%		19.5%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	12.5%0.15%	50.0%0.01%		11.6%0.14%	34.5%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles																	57.4%1.67%	51.0%1.07%	48.4%0.13%	88.9%<0.01%	58.7%2.06%	67.9%0.08%	40.0%11.59%	66.3%0.20%	57.1%0.68%	75.0%0.01%	36.4%18.56%	60.5%1.46%	85.7%<0.01%	34.9%12.93%	44.9%4.04%	85.2%0.06%
San Francisco 49ers																	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		7.7%0.01%				7.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Seattle Seahawks																	29.2%0.13%	25.3%0.09%	38.5%0.01%		30.9%0.18%	50.0%<0.01%	19.3%0.95%	50.0%0.02%	34.5%0.06%	25.0%<0.01%	16.8%1.49%	27.7%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	16.3%1.12%	23.6%0.35%	83.3%<0.01%
St. Louis Rams																	26.2%0.04%	10.7%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%		33.8%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	16.1%0.28%	0.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.02%		16.1%0.47%	31.4%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	13.1%0.34%	24.0%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	23.7%0.04%	18.8%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	20.4%0.25%	25.0%<0.01%	20.8%0.02%		14.0%0.44%	36.8%0.04%		14.2%0.37%	25.0%0.07%
Washington Redskins																	29.4%0.02%	37.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		31.2%0.03%		14.7%0.16%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		18.6%0.25%	42.1%0.02%		20.1%0.15%	22.0%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	71.73%	40.35%	27.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	100.00%	62.42%	32.16%	22.42%	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	82.56%	58.69%	21.61%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	77.66%	30.97%	15.42%	10.48%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	75.97%	43.52%	18.13%	5.59%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
San Diego Chargers	71.93%	23.43%	8.80%	5.58%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	47.93%	14.59%	3.17%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Jets	28.07%	6.24%	1.73%	0.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	63.00%	14.03%	4.37%	0.85%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Denver Broncos	22.34%	5.21%	1.54%	0.83%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	24.04%	4.73%	2.26%	0.44%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Rams	37.00%	7.23%	1.96%	0.32%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos		22.3%100.00%
Indianapolis Colts	77.7%100.00%
New York Jets				28.1%100.00%
San Diego Chargers			71.9%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Green Bay Packers		76.0%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	24.0%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks				63.0%100.00%
St. Louis Rams			37.0%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos					23.3%22.34%
Indianapolis Colts			39.9%77.66%
New England Patriots		60.1%77.66%		78.4%6.29%		67.3%16.05%
New York Jets			21.6%6.29%		22.4%21.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.7%22.34%			77.6%21.78%		67.5%55.88%
San Diego Chargers			32.7%16.05%		32.5%55.88%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons		42.7%75.97%			63.0%15.05%	66.8%8.98%
Green Bay Packers	57.3%75.97%
Minnesota Vikings				19.7%24.04%
Philadelphia Eagles			80.3%24.04%		82.4%47.95%	84.8%28.02%
Seattle Seahawks	37.0%15.05%			17.6%47.95%
St. Louis Rams	33.2%8.98%			15.2%28.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos			26.6%3.73%	48.0%0.32%		33.9%1.16%
Indianapolis Colts				73.4%1.97%	43.3%21.74%	62.9%7.26%
New England Patriots	73.4%3.73%			74.5%2.90%	45.0%44.87%	64.6%10.93%
New York Jets	52.0%0.32%	26.6%1.97%	25.5%2.90%		28.5%1.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers		56.7%21.74%	55.0%44.87%	71.5%1.04%		63.7%4.08%
San Diego Chargers	66.1%1.16%	37.1%7.26%	35.4%10.93%		36.3%4.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons			53.9%3.10%	24.4%39.42%	59.6%3.58%	64.7%1.82%
Green Bay Packers				35.6%36.21%	70.1%4.88%	74.9%2.43%
Minnesota Vikings	46.1%3.10%				49.2%1.07%	54.5%0.56%
Philadelphia Eagles	75.6%39.42%	64.4%36.21%			79.6%4.50%	81.4%2.42%
Seattle Seahawks	40.4%3.58%	29.9%4.88%	50.8%1.07%	20.4%4.50%
St. Louis Rams	35.3%1.82%	25.1%2.43%	45.5%0.56%	18.6%2.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos	68.8%0.22%	55.9%0.30%	65.7%0.03%	48.5%0.90%	59.3%0.06%	77.4%0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	78.0%2.27%	68.4%2.70%	79.6%0.33%	63.3%9.11%	81.7%0.74%	84.2%0.28%
New England Patriots	79.6%4.70%	70.9%5.95%	83.5%0.70%	65.0%18.81%	81.2%1.32%	84.6%0.68%
New York Jets	65.3%0.29%	55.8%0.31%	56.8%0.04%	48.5%0.98%	68.4%0.08%	73.9%0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	79.5%5.83%	69.9%7.28%	81.1%0.96%	64.0%23.74%	81.2%1.76%	83.0%0.78%
San Diego Chargers	73.0%1.28%	66.0%1.60%	74.4%0.20%	57.9%5.15%	77.8%0.41%	82.6%0.16%
Atlanta Falcons							31.2%0.22%	22.0%2.27%	20.4%4.70%	34.7%0.29%	20.5%5.83%	27.0%1.28%
Green Bay Packers							44.1%0.30%	31.6%2.70%	29.1%5.95%	44.2%0.31%	30.1%7.28%	34.0%1.60%
Minnesota Vikings							34.3%0.03%	20.4%0.33%	16.5%0.70%	43.2%0.04%	18.9%0.96%	25.6%0.20%
Philadelphia Eagles							51.5%0.90%	36.7%9.11%	35.0%18.81%	51.5%0.98%	36.0%23.74%	42.1%5.15%
Seattle Seahawks							40.7%0.06%	18.3%0.74%	18.8%1.32%	31.6%0.08%	18.8%1.76%	22.2%0.41%
St. Louis Rams							22.6%0.03%	15.8%0.28%	15.4%0.68%	26.1%0.02%	17.0%0.78%	17.4%0.16%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

52.55%

Win Prob

67.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

61.14%

Win Prob

54.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.73%

Win Prob

64.02%

New England Patriots 22.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

74.81%

Win Prob

60.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

62.80%

Win Prob

45.02%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.53%

Win Prob

64.99%

Philadelphia Eagles 21.61% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

47.83%

Win Prob

82.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

50.81%

Win Prob

75.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.53%

Win Prob

35.98%

Indianapolis Colts 10.48% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

77.66%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

60.99%

Win Prob

43.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.99%

Win Prob

63.28%

Green Bay Packers 5.59% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.97%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

71.09%

Win Prob

35.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.26%

Win Prob

30.15%

San Diego Chargers 5.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

77.60%

Win Prob

32.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

43.86%

Win Prob

35.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.52%

Win Prob

57.92%

Atlanta Falcons 3.17% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

67.69%

Win Prob

42.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

65.85%

Win Prob

24.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

37.75%

Win Prob

20.53%

New York Jets 0.93% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

78.16%

Win Prob

22.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.85%

Win Prob

25.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

51.18%

Win Prob

48.53%

Seattle Seahawks 0.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

60.30%

Win Prob

17.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.34%

Win Prob

29.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

38.83%

Win Prob

18.84%

Denver Broncos 0.83% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.34%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

64.42%

Win Prob

26.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.10%

Win Prob

48.49%

Minnesota Vikings 0.44% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

19.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

63.17%

Win Prob

46.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

40.99%

Win Prob

18.94%

St. Louis Rams 0.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

58.79%

Win Prob

15.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.84%

Win Prob

35.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

41.18%

Win Prob

16.96%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2004-09-12	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-17	1404.92	1531.59	27.40%	72.40%	-16.01	0-1
2004-09-19	New England Patriots	L 12-23	1388.91	1593.46	28.08%	71.72%	-20.56	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-6	1368.35	1537.05	22.87%	76.95%	-8.74	0-3
2004-10-03	New Orleans Saints	W 34-10	1359.61	1501.90	35.84%	63.94%	+69.08	1-3
2004-10-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1428.69	1396.88	48.43%	51.33%	-18.51	1-4
2004-10-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 25-17	1410.18	1556.29	35.33%	64.44%	+40.19	2-4
2004-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1450.37	1413.92	49.10%	50.66%	-53.07	2-5
2004-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-23	1397.30	1411.97	41.82%	57.95%	+12.78	3-5
2004-11-14	New York Giants	W 17-14	1410.08	1531.38	38.66%	61.11%	+23.35	4-5
2004-11-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-35	1433.43	1414.25	46.62%	53.14%	-51.44	4-6
2004-11-28	New York Jets	L 3-13	1381.99	1569.87	30.06%	69.73%	-20.98	4-7
2004-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 12-26	1361.01	1362.96	43.61%	56.15%	-36.01	4-8
2004-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1325.00	1237.53	67.68%	32.10%	-25.85	4-9
2004-12-19	St. Louis Rams	W 31-7	1299.15	1421.00	38.58%	61.19%	+66.11	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1365.26	1439.09	33.84%	65.94%	-12.94	5-10
2005-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-7	1352.32	1440.93	43.20%	56.56%	+27.90	6-10
2004-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-19	1470.59	1505.99	38.95%	60.82%	+18.97	1-0
2004-09-19	St. Louis Rams	W 34-17	1489.56	1547.60	47.56%	52.20%	+47.49	2-0
2004-09-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 6-3	1537.05	1368.35	76.95%	22.87%	+8.74	3-0
2004-10-03	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-10	1545.79	1538.07	44.98%	54.78%	+49.82	4-0
2004-10-10	Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1595.61	1466.25	72.71%	27.10%	-42.41	4-1
2004-10-17	San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1553.20	1526.61	59.61%	40.16%	+8.87	5-1
2004-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-56	1562.07	1440.36	61.17%	38.60%	-91.50	5-2
2004-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-28	1470.57	1572.60	30.31%	69.48%	+55.24	6-2
2004-11-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-14	1525.81	1488.45	61.09%	38.68%	+27.00	7-2
2004-11-21	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1552.81	1508.04	50.29%	49.46%	+21.82	8-2
2004-11-28	New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1574.63	1392.05	78.34%	21.49%	+8.22	9-2
2004-12-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-27	1582.85	1464.03	60.77%	39.00%	-69.64	9-3
2004-12-12	Oakland Raiders	W 35-10	1513.21	1344.35	76.97%	22.85%	+25.21	10-3
2004-12-18	Carolina Panthers	W 34-31	1538.42	1549.75	54.27%	45.49%	+17.39	11-3
2004-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-26	1555.81	1439.81	60.39%	39.38%	-16.00	11-4
2005-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-28	1539.81	1452.02	56.44%	43.32%	-5.87	11-5
2004-09-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-20	1538.07	1465.92	54.22%	45.54%	-49.32	0-1
2004-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1488.75	1501.05	54.13%	45.63%	+41.52	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-9	1530.27	1472.71	52.13%	47.63%	+39.32	2-1
2004-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1569.59	1435.65	73.23%	26.58%	-27.96	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1541.63	1417.95	61.44%	38.33%	+22.39	3-2
2004-10-24	Buffalo Bills	W 20-6	1564.02	1436.47	72.50%	27.30%	+22.55	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-15	1586.57	1697.67	29.22%	70.58%	-14.42	4-3
2004-11-07	Cleveland Browns	W 27-13	1572.15	1459.36	70.78%	29.02%	+23.96	5-3
2004-11-14	@ New York Jets	W 20-17	1596.11	1576.32	46.70%	53.05%	+20.28	6-3
2004-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-10	1616.39	1367.95	84.07%	15.79%	+15.57	7-3
2004-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 3-24	1631.96	1720.84	31.93%	67.86%	-32.29	7-4
2004-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 26-27	1599.67	1500.71	69.11%	30.68%	-15.24	7-5
2004-12-12	New York Giants	W 37-14	1584.43	1397.65	78.74%	21.09%	+22.32	8-5
2004-12-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-20	1606.75	1738.89	26.78%	73.02%	-18.70	8-6
2004-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-20	1588.05	1753.76	23.17%	76.65%	-18.44	8-7
2005-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 30-23	1569.61	1409.73	76.04%	23.77%	+13.89	9-7
2004-09-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-13	1485.82	1474.80	57.43%	42.33%	-21.95	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-13	1463.87	1442.61	46.92%	52.84%	-17.93	0-2
2004-10-03	New England Patriots	L 17-31	1445.94	1614.02	32.50%	67.28%	-26.84	0-3
2004-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 14-16	1419.10	1572.88	24.41%	75.40%	-7.62	0-4
2004-10-17	Miami Dolphins	W 20-13	1411.48	1403.81	56.96%	42.80%	+24.99	1-4
2004-10-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-20	1436.47	1564.02	27.30%	72.50%	-22.55	1-5
2004-10-31	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-14	1413.92	1450.37	50.66%	49.10%	+53.07	2-5
2004-11-07	New York Jets	W 22-17	1466.99	1607.75	36.04%	63.74%	+31.42	3-5
2004-11-14	@ New England Patriots	L 6-29	1498.41	1679.36	21.65%	78.18%	-22.91	3-6
2004-11-21	St. Louis Rams	W 37-17	1475.50	1512.05	50.65%	49.11%	+48.46	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-9	1523.96	1536.13	42.17%	57.60%	+68.41	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 42-32	1592.37	1406.55	69.48%	30.31%	+21.16	6-6
2004-12-12	Cleveland Browns	W 37-7	1613.53	1364.06	84.15%	15.71%	+18.98	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-17	1632.51	1506.88	61.70%	38.07%	+33.61	8-6
2004-12-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-7	1666.12	1240.49	90.03%	9.88%	+12.70	9-6
2005-01-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-29	1678.82	1772.20	42.53%	57.24%	-20.99	9-7
2004-09-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1531.87	1568.07	50.70%	49.06%	-35.37	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-17	1496.50	1503.19	42.94%	56.82%	+41.57	1-1
2004-10-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-27	1538.07	1545.79	54.78%	44.98%	-49.82	1-2
2004-10-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1488.25	1585.15	30.93%	68.85%	-11.83	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 8-30	1476.42	1665.97	20.82%	79.01%	-21.56	1-4
2004-10-24	San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1454.86	1517.74	46.86%	52.90%	-34.29	1-5
2004-10-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1420.57	1516.09	31.10%	68.68%	-16.82	1-6
2004-11-07	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1403.75	1337.46	64.96%	34.81%	-24.81	1-7
2004-11-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 37-27	1378.94	1342.18	49.14%	50.62%	+35.31	2-7
2004-11-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-10	1414.25	1433.43	53.14%	46.62%	+51.43	3-7
2004-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-14	1465.68	1491.82	52.14%	47.61%	+27.80	4-7
2004-12-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-21	1493.48	1383.84	59.51%	40.26%	+29.47	5-7
2004-12-12	St. Louis Rams	W 20-7	1522.95	1447.80	66.11%	33.67%	+26.80	6-7
2004-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-34	1549.75	1538.42	45.49%	54.27%	-17.39	6-8
2004-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-20	1532.36	1485.67	50.57%	49.19%	+44.75	7-8
2005-01-02	New Orleans Saints	L 18-21	1577.11	1455.81	71.78%	28.02%	-27.41	7-9
2004-09-12	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1479.12	1452.76	59.58%	40.19%	-26.28	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1452.84	1603.44	24.75%	75.06%	+54.88	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1507.72	1525.76	41.35%	58.42%	-20.40	1-2
2004-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-19	1487.32	1642.10	34.20%	65.58%	-23.88	1-3
2004-10-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1463.44	1395.57	65.17%	34.61%	-24.89	1-4
2004-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-19	1438.55	1431.54	44.88%	54.88%	-34.31	1-5
2004-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1404.24	1400.88	56.35%	43.41%	+30.30	2-5
2004-11-07	@ New York Giants	W 28-21	1434.54	1574.48	25.91%	73.90%	+43.10	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-17	1477.64	1472.23	44.65%	55.11%	+17.19	4-5
2004-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1494.83	1644.08	34.92%	64.85%	-42.92	4-6
2004-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1451.91	1352.37	58.10%	41.66%	-47.95	4-7
2004-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1403.96	1552.49	35.02%	64.76%	+45.16	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-22	1449.12	1443.70	44.65%	55.11%	-42.95	5-8
2004-12-19	Houston Texans	L 5-24	1406.17	1419.73	53.95%	45.81%	-51.87	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-19	1354.30	1381.52	40.07%	59.70%	-21.67	5-10
2005-01-02	Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1332.63	1588.35	22.54%	77.28%	-20.51	5-11
2004-09-12	@ New York Jets	L 24-31	1477.17	1495.82	41.26%	58.50%	-24.10	0-1
2004-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 16-13	1453.07	1505.48	48.37%	51.39%	+19.64	1-1
2004-09-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-23	1472.71	1530.27	47.63%	52.13%	-39.32	1-2
2004-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1433.39	1501.08	34.63%	65.15%	-25.35	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-34	1408.04	1432.73	40.42%	59.34%	-36.79	1-4
2004-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1371.25	1634.62	21.78%	78.04%	+62.03	2-4
2004-10-31	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-27	1433.28	1447.80	41.84%	57.93%	-24.43	2-5
2004-11-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-3	1408.85	1446.28	50.52%	49.24%	+52.10	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1460.95	1425.90	48.89%	50.86%	+29.69	4-5
2004-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-19	1490.64	1702.38	27.26%	72.55%	-13.45	4-6
2004-11-28	Cleveland Browns	W 58-48	1477.19	1402.29	66.08%	33.70%	+23.52	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-26	1500.71	1599.67	30.68%	69.11%	+15.24	6-6
2004-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 28-35	1515.95	1767.84	15.53%	84.34%	-9.07	6-7
2004-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 17-33	1506.88	1632.51	38.07%	61.70%	-33.61	6-8
2004-12-26	New York Giants	W 23-22	1473.27	1370.41	69.58%	30.21%	+6.67	7-8
2005-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-10	1479.94	1744.14	14.62%	85.25%	+33.13	8-8
2004-09-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1465.92	1538.07	45.54%	54.22%	+49.31	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-19	1515.23	1461.46	51.59%	48.17%	-30.11	1-1
2004-09-26	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1485.12	1435.50	50.99%	48.77%	-46.38	1-2
2004-10-03	Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1438.74	1437.23	56.09%	43.67%	+19.27	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-34	1458.01	1526.43	34.54%	65.24%	-25.28	2-3
2004-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-17	1432.73	1408.04	59.34%	40.42%	+36.78	3-3
2004-10-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1469.51	1687.52	26.55%	73.26%	-10.15	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-27	1459.36	1572.15	29.02%	70.78%	-23.97	3-5
2004-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1435.39	1683.09	23.36%	76.46%	-19.28	3-6
2004-11-21	New York Jets	L 7-10	1416.11	1556.05	36.15%	63.63%	-13.82	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 48-58	1402.29	1477.19	33.70%	66.08%	-23.53	3-8
2004-12-05	New England Patriots	L 15-42	1378.76	1753.14	12.83%	87.05%	-14.70	3-9
2004-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-37	1364.06	1613.53	15.71%	84.15%	-18.98	3-10
2004-12-19	San Diego Chargers	L 0-21	1345.08	1662.00	16.99%	82.86%	-17.18	3-11
2004-12-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-10	1327.90	1396.54	34.51%	65.27%	-13.20	3-12
2005-01-02	@ Houston Texans	W 22-14	1314.70	1533.99	18.15%	81.70%	+50.93	4-12
2004-09-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-35	1500.34	1517.16	41.52%	58.25%	-38.88	0-1
2004-09-19	Cleveland Browns	W 19-12	1461.46	1515.23	48.17%	51.59%	+30.11	1-1
2004-09-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-18	1491.57	1456.67	48.87%	50.88%	+19.45	2-1
2004-10-10	New York Giants	L 10-26	1511.02	1517.35	54.98%	44.78%	-48.51	2-2
2004-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1462.51	1551.72	43.11%	56.65%	-19.03	2-3
2004-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-41	1443.48	1501.30	35.93%	63.85%	-36.34	2-4
2004-10-31	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1407.14	1492.61	43.64%	56.12%	+39.14	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-26	1446.28	1408.85	49.24%	50.52%	-52.10	3-5
2004-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1394.18	1650.70	22.46%	77.36%	-26.23	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-30	1367.95	1616.39	15.79%	84.07%	-15.58	3-7
2004-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1352.37	1451.91	41.66%	58.10%	+47.95	4-7
2004-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 43-39	1400.32	1467.72	34.67%	65.11%	+28.71	5-7
2004-12-12	New Orleans Saints	L 13-27	1429.03	1354.37	66.05%	33.73%	-54.49	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-12	1374.54	1764.01	7.69%	92.23%	-3.79	5-9
2004-12-26	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1370.75	1452.16	44.22%	55.54%	+21.22	6-9
2005-01-02	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1391.97	1363.74	47.91%	51.84%	-21.15	6-10
2004-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-24	1529.54	1534.28	55.20%	44.56%	+31.09	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-7	1560.63	1496.74	53.04%	46.72%	-11.70	1-1
2004-09-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-13	1548.93	1454.57	68.54%	31.25%	+21.82	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1570.75	1442.13	62.11%	37.66%	+14.40	3-1
2004-10-10	Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1585.15	1488.25	68.85%	30.93%	+11.82	4-1
2004-10-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-3	1596.97	1426.73	67.55%	32.23%	+37.65	5-1
2004-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1634.62	1371.25	78.04%	21.78%	-62.02	5-2
2004-10-31	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-41	1572.60	1470.57	69.48%	30.31%	-55.24	5-3
2004-11-07	Houston Texans	W 31-13	1517.36	1511.97	56.64%	43.12%	+40.38	6-3
2004-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-13	1557.74	1430.32	61.94%	37.83%	+38.26	7-3
2004-11-28	Oakland Raiders	L 24-25	1596.00	1349.27	83.94%	15.92%	-18.50	7-4
2004-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1577.50	1631.00	36.50%	63.27%	-13.96	7-5
2004-12-12	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1563.54	1385.40	77.90%	21.92%	+8.38	8-5
2004-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-45	1571.92	1534.90	49.18%	50.58%	-57.41	8-6
2004-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 37-16	1514.51	1366.30	64.72%	35.06%	+35.46	9-6
2005-01-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 33-14	1549.97	1770.30	26.29%	73.52%	+23.55	10-6
2004-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1452.76	1479.12	40.19%	59.58%	+26.28	1-0
2004-09-19	Houston Texans	W 28-16	1479.04	1396.76	67.02%	32.76%	+25.05	2-0
2004-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-30	1504.09	1604.26	41.57%	58.19%	-37.84	2-1
2004-10-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1466.25	1595.61	27.10%	72.71%	+42.41	3-1
2004-10-17	Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1508.66	1422.53	67.51%	32.27%	-78.77	3-2
2004-10-24	@ New York Giants	W 28-13	1429.89	1565.86	26.35%	73.45%	+62.72	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1492.61	1407.14	56.12%	43.64%	-39.14	4-3
2004-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1453.47	1388.07	64.85%	34.93%	-37.84	4-4
2004-11-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-23	1415.63	1480.05	35.06%	64.72%	-18.95	4-5
2004-11-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-22	1396.68	1514.57	28.42%	71.38%	-10.87	4-6
2004-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-41	1385.81	1687.00	18.31%	81.54%	-22.85	4-7
2004-12-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-12	1362.96	1361.01	56.15%	43.61%	+36.01	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1398.97	1590.66	20.62%	79.21%	-7.88	5-8
2004-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1391.09	1478.56	43.36%	56.40%	-9.57	5-9
2004-12-26	Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1381.52	1354.30	59.70%	40.07%	+21.66	6-9
2005-01-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 19-24	1403.18	1330.84	54.25%	45.51%	-26.76	6-10
2004-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-14	1568.07	1531.87	49.06%	50.70%	+35.37	1-0
2004-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 10-21	1603.44	1452.84	75.06%	24.75%	-54.88	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-45	1548.56	1589.97	38.13%	61.64%	-31.48	1-2
2004-10-03	New York Giants	L 7-14	1517.08	1481.88	60.79%	38.97%	-35.48	1-3
2004-10-11	Tennessee Titans	L 27-48	1481.60	1463.38	58.44%	41.32%	-59.07	1-4
2004-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1422.53	1508.66	32.27%	67.51%	+78.77	2-4
2004-10-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-20	1501.30	1443.48	63.85%	35.93%	+36.34	3-4
2004-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1537.64	1420.46	60.55%	39.22%	+32.39	4-4
2004-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-31	1570.03	1529.17	61.57%	38.20%	+14.61	5-4
2004-11-21	@ Houston Texans	W 16-13	1584.64	1437.54	64.57%	35.20%	+13.46	6-4
2004-11-29	St. Louis Rams	W 45-17	1598.10	1463.59	73.29%	26.52%	+30.97	7-4
2004-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-47	1629.07	1719.27	31.76%	68.02%	-38.41	7-5
2004-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1590.66	1398.97	79.21%	20.62%	+7.89	8-5
2004-12-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 25-28	1598.55	1486.65	70.67%	29.12%	-26.99	8-6
2004-12-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-31	1571.56	1488.13	55.83%	43.93%	+16.79	9-6
2005-01-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-14	1588.35	1332.63	77.28%	22.54%	+20.51	10-6
2004-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 20-27	1427.40	1451.19	52.48%	47.28%	-30.64	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-28	1396.76	1479.04	32.76%	67.02%	-25.05	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1371.71	1461.62	31.80%	67.99%	+25.97	1-2
2004-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 30-17	1397.68	1492.51	42.32%	57.44%	+45.68	2-2
2004-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-34	1443.36	1546.17	41.21%	58.56%	-22.28	2-3
2004-10-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-10	1421.08	1522.45	30.39%	69.40%	+48.39	3-3
2004-10-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-6	1469.47	1522.55	48.27%	51.49%	+42.50	4-3
2004-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-31	1511.97	1517.36	43.12%	56.64%	-40.37	4-4
2004-11-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-49	1471.60	1610.02	26.08%	73.73%	-34.06	4-5
2004-11-21	Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1437.54	1584.64	35.20%	64.57%	-13.46	4-6
2004-11-28	Tennessee Titans	W 31-21	1424.08	1478.72	48.05%	51.71%	+36.08	5-6
2004-12-05	@ New York Jets	L 7-29	1460.16	1590.85	26.94%	72.86%	-27.90	5-7
2004-12-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-23	1432.26	1726.36	18.92%	80.92%	-12.53	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-5	1419.73	1406.17	45.81%	53.95%	+51.88	6-8
2004-12-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-0	1471.61	1513.64	38.04%	61.73%	+62.38	7-8
2005-01-02	Cleveland Browns	L 14-22	1533.99	1314.70	81.70%	18.15%	-50.93	7-9
2004-09-09	@ New England Patriots	L 24-27	1552.53	1578.05	40.31%	59.46%	-15.41	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-17	1537.12	1596.49	35.72%	64.05%	+52.85	1-1
2004-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 45-31	1589.97	1548.56	61.64%	38.13%	+31.49	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1621.46	1531.66	56.73%	43.03%	+25.13	3-1
2004-10-10	Oakland Raiders	W 35-14	1646.59	1446.83	79.97%	19.87%	+20.10	4-1
2004-10-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-27	1666.69	1492.98	77.46%	22.36%	-29.58	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 35-45	1637.11	1531.85	58.90%	40.87%	-41.08	4-3
2004-11-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1596.03	1543.16	63.19%	36.59%	+13.99	5-3
2004-11-14	Houston Texans	W 49-14	1610.02	1471.60	73.73%	26.08%	+34.06	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-10	1644.08	1494.83	64.85%	34.92%	+42.92	7-3
2004-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-9	1687.00	1385.81	81.54%	18.31%	+22.85	8-3
2004-12-05	Tennessee Titans	W 51-24	1709.85	1442.64	85.46%	14.41%	+16.51	9-3
2004-12-12	@ Houston Texans	W 23-14	1726.36	1432.26	80.92%	18.92%	+12.53	10-3
2004-12-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-10	1738.89	1606.75	73.02%	26.78%	+18.69	11-3
2004-12-26	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1757.58	1679.18	66.53%	33.25%	+12.72	12-3
2005-01-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-33	1770.30	1549.97	73.52%	26.29%	-23.55	12-4
2004-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1474.80	1485.82	42.33%	57.43%	+21.94	1-0
2004-09-19	Denver Broncos	W 7-6	1496.74	1560.63	46.72%	53.04%	+11.70	2-0
2004-09-26	@ Tennessee Titans	W 15-12	1508.44	1543.64	38.97%	60.79%	+23.22	3-0
2004-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-24	1531.66	1621.46	43.03%	56.73%	-25.12	3-1
2004-10-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-34	1506.54	1489.80	46.27%	53.49%	-36.82	3-2
2004-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-16	1469.72	1463.62	56.74%	43.02%	+23.26	4-2
2004-10-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1492.98	1666.69	22.36%	77.46%	+29.57	5-2
2004-10-31	@ Houston Texans	L 6-20	1522.55	1469.47	51.49%	48.27%	-42.50	5-3
2004-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1480.05	1415.63	64.72%	35.06%	+18.96	6-3
2004-11-21	Tennessee Titans	L 15-18	1499.01	1455.04	61.99%	37.78%	-23.68	6-4
2004-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-27	1475.33	1525.43	36.96%	62.82%	-27.06	6-5
2004-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-17	1448.27	1722.65	20.72%	79.11%	-4.57	6-6
2004-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 22-3	1443.70	1449.12	55.11%	44.65%	+42.95	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-25	1486.65	1598.55	29.12%	70.67%	+26.99	8-6
2004-12-26	Houston Texans	L 0-21	1513.64	1471.61	61.73%	38.04%	-62.38	8-7
2005-01-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 13-6	1451.26	1342.49	59.39%	40.38%	+23.58	9-7
2004-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-34	1534.28	1529.54	44.56%	55.20%	-31.09	0-1
2004-09-19	Carolina Panthers	L 17-28	1503.19	1496.50	56.82%	42.94%	-41.57	0-2
2004-09-26	Houston Texans	L 21-24	1461.62	1371.71	67.99%	31.80%	-25.97	0-3
2004-10-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1435.65	1569.59	26.58%	73.23%	+27.97	1-3
2004-10-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-22	1463.62	1469.72	43.02%	56.74%	-23.26	1-4
2004-10-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 56-10	1440.36	1562.07	38.60%	61.17%	+91.49	2-4
2004-10-31	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-35	1531.85	1637.11	40.87%	58.90%	+41.08	3-4
2004-11-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-34	1572.93	1465.85	59.15%	40.61%	-22.60	3-5
2004-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-27	1550.33	1391.77	66.06%	33.72%	-38.54	3-6
2004-11-22	New England Patriots	L 19-27	1511.79	1702.27	29.74%	70.05%	-18.57	3-7
2004-11-28	San Diego Chargers	L 31-34	1493.22	1616.31	38.41%	61.36%	-14.69	3-8
2004-12-05	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-27	1478.53	1367.77	59.66%	40.10%	+23.42	4-8
2004-12-13	@ Tennessee Titans	W 49-38	1501.95	1426.13	54.75%	45.01%	+32.95	5-8
2004-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1534.90	1571.92	50.58%	49.18%	+57.42	6-8
2004-12-25	Oakland Raiders	W 31-30	1592.32	1346.01	83.91%	15.95%	+3.52	7-8
2005-01-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-24	1595.84	1666.47	34.25%	65.53%	-20.01	7-9
2004-09-11	Tennessee Titans	L 7-17	1542.84	1559.13	53.56%	46.20%	-37.36	0-1
2004-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-16	1505.48	1453.07	51.39%	48.37%	-19.64	0-2
2004-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-13	1485.84	1459.53	59.57%	40.20%	-41.55	0-3
2004-10-03	New York Jets	L 9-17	1444.29	1547.16	41.20%	58.57%	-25.71	0-4
2004-10-10	@ New England Patriots	L 10-24	1418.58	1640.86	17.89%	81.96%	-14.77	0-5
2004-10-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-20	1403.81	1411.48	42.80%	56.96%	-25.00	0-6
2004-10-24	St. Louis Rams	W 31-14	1378.81	1567.57	29.95%	69.84%	+63.49	1-6
2004-11-01	@ New York Jets	L 14-41	1442.30	1577.42	26.45%	73.36%	-30.33	1-7
2004-11-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-24	1411.97	1397.30	57.95%	41.82%	-12.78	1-8
2004-11-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1399.19	1519.71	28.11%	71.69%	-16.42	1-9
2004-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1382.77	1276.49	59.04%	40.72%	+23.78	2-9
2004-12-05	Buffalo Bills	L 32-42	1406.55	1592.37	30.31%	69.48%	-21.15	2-10
2004-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1385.40	1563.54	21.92%	77.90%	-8.39	2-11
2004-12-20	New England Patriots	W 29-28	1377.01	1776.90	11.28%	88.62%	+19.53	3-11
2004-12-26	Cleveland Browns	W 10-7	1396.54	1327.90	65.27%	34.51%	+13.19	4-11
2005-01-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1409.73	1569.61	23.77%	76.04%	-13.88	4-12
2004-09-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-17	1517.16	1500.34	58.25%	41.52%	+38.87	1-0
2004-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-27	1556.03	1573.99	41.36%	58.41%	-30.27	1-1
2004-09-26	Chicago Bears	W 27-22	1525.76	1507.72	58.42%	41.35%	+20.41	2-1
2004-10-10	@ Houston Texans	W 34-28	1546.17	1443.36	58.56%	41.21%	+22.27	3-1
2004-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-31	1568.44	1411.21	65.89%	33.89%	+19.79	4-1
2004-10-24	Tennessee Titans	W 20-3	1588.23	1474.06	70.94%	28.85%	+26.27	5-1
2004-10-31	New York Giants	L 13-34	1614.50	1503.15	70.61%	29.19%	-71.34	5-2
2004-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1543.16	1596.03	36.59%	63.19%	-13.99	5-3
2004-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 31-34	1529.17	1570.03	38.20%	61.57%	-14.60	5-4
2004-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 22-19	1514.57	1396.68	71.38%	28.42%	+10.86	6-4
2004-11-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-16	1525.43	1475.33	62.82%	36.96%	+27.06	7-4
2004-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1552.49	1403.96	64.76%	35.02%	-45.16	7-5
2004-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1507.33	1439.00	65.23%	34.55%	-28.77	7-6
2004-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-27	1478.56	1391.09	56.40%	43.36%	+9.57	8-6
2004-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 31-34	1488.13	1571.56	43.93%	55.83%	-16.79	8-7
2005-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 18-21	1471.34	1430.94	49.66%	50.09%	-18.98	8-8
2004-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1578.05	1552.53	59.46%	40.31%	+15.41	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-12	1593.46	1388.91	71.72%	28.08%	+20.56	2-0
2004-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-17	1614.02	1445.94	67.28%	32.50%	+26.84	3-0
2004-10-10	Miami Dolphins	W 24-10	1640.86	1418.58	81.96%	17.89%	+14.77	4-0
2004-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-20	1655.63	1579.72	66.21%	33.57%	+23.44	5-0
2004-10-24	New York Jets	W 13-7	1679.07	1595.01	67.25%	32.53%	+17.59	6-0
2004-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-34	1696.66	1570.75	61.74%	38.03%	-50.95	6-1
2004-11-07	@ St. Louis Rams	W 40-22	1645.71	1504.08	63.85%	35.92%	+33.65	7-1
2004-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 29-6	1679.36	1498.41	78.18%	21.65%	+22.91	8-1
2004-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-19	1702.27	1511.79	70.05%	29.74%	+18.57	9-1
2004-11-28	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-3	1720.84	1631.96	67.86%	31.93%	+32.30	10-1
2004-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns	W 42-15	1753.14	1378.76	87.05%	12.83%	+14.70	11-1
2004-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-28	1767.84	1515.95	84.34%	15.53%	+9.06	12-1
2004-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-29	1776.90	1377.01	88.62%	11.28%	-19.52	12-2
2004-12-26	@ New York Jets	W 23-7	1757.38	1625.81	62.50%	37.27%	+32.90	13-2
2005-01-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1790.28	1227.79	96.98%	2.99%	+0.82	14-2
2004-09-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-21	1506.51	1514.04	54.81%	44.95%	-45.24	0-1
2004-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-27	1461.27	1487.02	52.20%	47.56%	+18.18	1-1
2004-09-26	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-25	1479.45	1500.12	40.98%	58.79%	+22.45	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-34	1501.90	1359.61	63.94%	35.84%	-69.07	2-2
2004-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1432.83	1427.73	56.60%	43.16%	-21.62	2-3
2004-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-38	1411.21	1568.44	33.89%	65.89%	-19.79	2-4
2004-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-26	1391.42	1389.08	44.21%	55.55%	+27.39	3-4
2004-11-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-43	1418.81	1576.27	24.03%	75.79%	-27.04	3-5
2004-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-20	1391.77	1550.33	33.72%	66.06%	+38.55	4-5
2004-11-21	Denver Broncos	L 13-34	1430.32	1557.74	37.83%	61.94%	-38.27	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-24	1392.05	1574.63	21.49%	78.34%	-8.21	4-7
2004-12-05	Carolina Panthers	L 21-32	1383.84	1493.48	40.26%	59.51%	-29.47	4-8
2004-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-13	1354.37	1429.03	33.73%	66.05%	+54.49	5-8
2004-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-17	1408.86	1516.62	29.62%	70.18%	+30.95	6-8
2004-12-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-13	1439.81	1555.81	39.38%	60.39%	+16.00	7-8
2005-01-02	@ Carolina Panthers	W 21-18	1455.81	1577.11	28.02%	71.78%	+27.41	8-8
2004-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-31	1428.54	1550.95	27.89%	71.91%	-23.03	0-1
2004-09-19	Washington Redskins	W 20-14	1405.51	1486.66	44.25%	55.51%	+29.99	1-1
2004-09-26	Cleveland Browns	W 27-10	1435.50	1485.12	48.77%	50.99%	+46.38	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1481.88	1517.08	38.97%	60.79%	+35.47	3-1
2004-10-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 26-10	1517.35	1511.02	44.78%	54.98%	+48.51	4-1
2004-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 13-28	1565.86	1429.89	73.45%	26.35%	-62.71	4-2
2004-10-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-13	1503.15	1614.50	29.19%	70.61%	+71.33	5-2
2004-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 21-28	1574.48	1434.54	73.90%	25.91%	-43.10	5-3
2004-11-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-17	1531.38	1410.08	61.11%	38.66%	-23.34	5-4
2004-11-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1508.04	1552.81	49.46%	50.29%	-21.83	5-5
2004-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-27	1486.21	1690.87	28.07%	71.73%	-28.39	5-6
2004-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1457.82	1375.45	55.68%	44.08%	-60.17	5-7
2004-12-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-37	1397.65	1584.43	21.09%	78.74%	-22.32	5-8
2004-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 30-33	1375.33	1748.84	12.88%	87.00%	-4.92	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 22-23	1370.41	1473.27	30.21%	69.58%	-6.67	5-10
2005-01-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-24	1363.74	1391.97	51.84%	47.91%	+21.15	6-10
2004-09-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-24	1495.82	1477.17	58.50%	41.26%	+24.09	1-0
2004-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-28	1519.91	1481.82	49.33%	50.43%	+27.25	2-0
2004-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-9	1547.16	1444.29	58.57%	41.20%	+25.72	3-0
2004-10-10	Buffalo Bills	W 16-14	1572.88	1419.10	75.40%	24.41%	+7.62	4-0
2004-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 22-14	1580.50	1415.39	76.59%	23.23%	+14.51	5-0
2004-10-24	@ New England Patriots	L 7-13	1595.01	1679.07	32.53%	67.25%	-17.59	5-1
2004-11-01	Miami Dolphins	W 41-14	1577.42	1442.30	73.36%	26.45%	+30.33	6-1
2004-11-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-22	1607.75	1466.99	63.74%	36.04%	-31.43	6-2
2004-11-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1576.32	1596.11	53.05%	46.70%	-20.27	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 10-7	1556.05	1416.11	63.63%	36.15%	+13.82	7-3
2004-11-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 13-3	1569.87	1381.99	69.73%	30.06%	+20.98	8-3
2004-12-05	Houston Texans	W 29-7	1590.85	1460.16	72.86%	26.94%	+27.90	9-3
2004-12-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-17	1618.75	1727.22	29.53%	70.26%	-21.62	9-4
2004-12-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-14	1597.13	1467.77	72.71%	27.10%	+28.68	10-4
2004-12-26	New England Patriots	L 7-23	1625.81	1757.38	37.27%	62.50%	-32.90	10-5
2005-01-02	@ St. Louis Rams	L 29-32	1592.91	1378.56	72.84%	26.96%	-27.82	10-6
2004-09-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1457.89	1485.77	39.98%	59.79%	-15.28	0-1
2004-09-19	Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1442.61	1463.87	52.84%	46.92%	+17.93	1-1
2004-09-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-20	1460.54	1474.10	53.95%	45.81%	+31.97	2-1
2004-10-03	@ Houston Texans	L 17-30	1492.51	1397.68	57.44%	42.32%	-45.68	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-35	1446.83	1646.59	19.87%	79.97%	-20.10	2-3
2004-10-17	Denver Broncos	L 3-31	1426.73	1596.97	32.23%	67.55%	-37.65	2-4
2004-10-24	New Orleans Saints	L 26-31	1389.08	1391.42	55.55%	44.21%	-27.39	2-5
2004-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-42	1361.69	1552.04	20.75%	79.09%	-24.23	2-6
2004-11-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-24	1337.46	1403.75	34.81%	64.96%	+24.81	3-6
2004-11-21	San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1362.27	1603.31	24.05%	75.77%	-13.00	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	W 25-24	1349.27	1596.00	15.92%	83.94%	+18.50	4-7
2004-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-34	1367.77	1478.53	40.10%	59.66%	-23.42	4-8
2004-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-35	1344.35	1513.21	22.85%	76.97%	-25.22	4-9
2004-12-19	Tennessee Titans	W 40-35	1319.13	1393.18	45.27%	54.49%	+26.88	5-9
2004-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-31	1346.01	1592.32	15.95%	83.91%	-3.52	5-10
2005-01-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-13	1342.49	1451.26	40.38%	59.39%	-23.58	5-11
2004-09-12	New York Giants	W 31-17	1550.95	1428.54	71.91%	27.89%	+23.04	1-0
2004-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-16	1573.99	1556.03	58.41%	41.36%	+30.27	2-0
2004-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-13	1604.26	1504.09	58.19%	41.57%	+37.84	3-0
2004-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-9	1642.10	1487.32	65.58%	34.20%	+23.87	4-0
2004-10-17	Carolina Panthers	W 30-8	1665.97	1476.42	79.01%	20.82%	+21.55	5-0
2004-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-31	1687.52	1469.51	73.26%	26.55%	+10.15	6-0
2004-10-31	Baltimore Ravens	W 15-10	1697.67	1586.57	70.58%	29.22%	+14.43	7-0
2004-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1712.10	1621.70	56.81%	42.95%	-61.40	7-1
2004-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 49-21	1650.70	1394.18	77.36%	22.46%	+26.23	8-1
2004-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 28-6	1676.93	1396.21	86.40%	13.48%	+13.94	9-1
2004-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 27-6	1690.87	1486.21	71.73%	28.07%	+28.40	10-1
2004-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 47-17	1719.27	1629.07	68.02%	31.76%	+38.40	11-1
2004-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1757.67	1435.61	83.28%	16.58%	+6.34	12-1
2004-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 12-7	1764.01	1374.54	92.23%	7.69%	+3.79	13-1
2004-12-27	@ St. Louis Rams	L 7-20	1767.80	1354.90	89.35%	10.55%	-23.66	13-2
2005-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-38	1744.14	1479.94	85.25%	14.62%	-33.13	13-3
2004-09-12	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1485.77	1457.89	59.79%	39.98%	+15.28	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-30	1501.05	1488.75	45.63%	54.13%	-41.52	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-3	1459.53	1485.84	40.20%	59.57%	+41.55	2-1
2004-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1501.08	1433.39	65.15%	34.63%	+25.35	3-1
2004-10-10	Cleveland Browns	W 34-23	1526.43	1458.01	65.24%	34.54%	+25.29	4-1
2004-10-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1551.72	1462.51	56.65%	43.11%	+19.03	5-1
2004-10-31	New England Patriots	W 34-20	1570.75	1696.66	38.03%	61.74%	+50.95	6-1
2004-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-3	1621.70	1712.10	42.95%	56.81%	+61.39	7-1
2004-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1683.09	1435.39	76.46%	23.36%	+19.29	8-1
2004-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-14	1702.38	1490.64	72.55%	27.26%	+13.45	9-1
2004-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 16-7	1715.83	1382.27	89.59%	10.31%	+6.82	10-1
2004-12-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-16	1722.65	1448.27	79.11%	20.72%	+4.57	11-1
2004-12-12	New York Jets	W 17-6	1727.22	1618.75	70.26%	29.53%	+21.62	12-1
2004-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 33-30	1748.84	1375.33	87.00%	12.88%	+4.92	13-1
2004-12-26	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-7	1753.76	1588.05	76.65%	23.17%	+18.44	14-1
2005-01-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-24	1772.20	1678.82	57.24%	42.53%	+20.99	15-1
2004-09-12	@ Houston Texans	W 27-20	1451.19	1427.40	47.28%	52.48%	+30.63	1-0
2004-09-19	New York Jets	L 28-34	1481.82	1519.91	50.43%	49.33%	-27.25	1-1
2004-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1454.57	1548.93	31.25%	68.54%	-21.81	1-2
2004-10-03	Tennessee Titans	W 38-17	1432.76	1520.42	43.33%	56.43%	+57.04	2-2
2004-10-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-21	1489.80	1506.54	53.49%	46.27%	+36.81	3-2
2004-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-21	1526.61	1553.20	40.16%	59.61%	-8.87	3-3
2004-10-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 17-6	1517.74	1454.86	52.90%	46.86%	+34.30	4-3
2004-10-31	Oakland Raiders	W 42-14	1552.04	1361.69	79.09%	20.75%	+24.23	5-3
2004-11-07	New Orleans Saints	W 43-17	1576.27	1418.81	75.79%	24.03%	+27.04	6-3
2004-11-21	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-17	1603.31	1362.27	75.77%	24.05%	+13.00	7-3
2004-11-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1616.31	1493.22	61.36%	38.41%	+14.69	8-3
2004-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 20-17	1631.00	1577.50	63.27%	36.50%	+13.95	9-3
2004-12-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-24	1644.95	1533.67	70.60%	29.20%	+17.05	10-3
2004-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-0	1662.00	1345.08	82.86%	16.99%	+17.18	11-3
2004-12-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-34	1679.18	1757.58	33.25%	66.53%	-12.71	11-4
2005-01-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1666.47	1595.84	65.53%	34.25%	+20.00	12-4
2004-09-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 19-21	1505.99	1470.59	60.82%	38.95%	-18.97	0-1
2004-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1487.02	1461.27	47.56%	52.20%	-18.17	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-34	1468.85	1579.85	29.23%	70.56%	-37.63	0-3
2004-10-03	St. Louis Rams	L 14-24	1431.22	1477.66	49.22%	50.53%	-34.34	0-4
2004-10-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1396.88	1428.69	51.33%	48.43%	+18.51	1-4
2004-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 14-22	1415.39	1580.50	23.23%	76.59%	-14.51	1-5
2004-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-23	1400.88	1404.24	43.41%	56.35%	-30.29	1-6
2004-11-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 27-42	1370.59	1532.91	33.23%	66.55%	-28.41	1-7
2004-11-14	Carolina Panthers	L 27-37	1342.18	1378.94	50.62%	49.14%	-35.32	1-8
2004-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-35	1306.86	1461.45	24.33%	75.49%	-30.37	1-9
2004-11-28	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1276.49	1382.77	40.72%	59.04%	-23.79	1-10
2004-12-05	@ St. Louis Rams	L 6-16	1252.70	1432.62	21.75%	78.08%	-15.17	1-11
2004-12-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1237.53	1325.00	32.10%	67.68%	+25.84	2-11
2004-12-18	Washington Redskins	L 16-26	1263.37	1429.28	32.78%	67.00%	-22.88	2-12
2004-12-26	Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1240.49	1666.12	9.88%	90.03%	-12.70	2-13
2005-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 7-21	1227.79	1790.28	2.99%	96.98%	-0.82	2-14
2004-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1514.04	1506.51	44.95%	54.81%	+45.23	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-6	1559.27	1494.68	53.14%	46.62%	+20.58	2-0
2004-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-0	1579.85	1468.85	70.56%	29.23%	+37.62	3-0
2004-10-10	St. Louis Rams	L 27-33	1617.47	1512.00	69.90%	29.89%	-37.75	3-1
2004-10-17	@ New England Patriots	L 20-30	1579.72	1655.63	33.57%	66.21%	-23.43	3-2
2004-10-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-25	1556.29	1410.18	64.44%	35.33%	-40.20	3-3
2004-10-31	Carolina Panthers	W 23-17	1516.09	1420.57	68.68%	31.10%	+16.82	4-3
2004-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-27	1532.91	1370.59	66.55%	33.23%	+28.41	5-3
2004-11-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 12-23	1561.32	1470.44	56.88%	42.88%	-41.61	5-4
2004-11-21	Miami Dolphins	W 24-17	1519.71	1399.19	71.69%	28.11%	+16.42	6-4
2004-11-28	Buffalo Bills	L 9-38	1536.13	1523.96	57.60%	42.17%	-68.41	6-5
2004-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 39-43	1467.72	1400.32	65.11%	34.67%	-28.72	6-6
2004-12-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-23	1439.00	1507.33	34.55%	65.23%	+28.77	7-6
2004-12-19	@ New York Jets	L 14-37	1467.77	1597.13	27.10%	72.71%	-28.68	7-7
2004-12-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-21	1439.09	1365.26	65.94%	33.84%	+12.93	8-7
2005-01-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-26	1452.02	1539.81	43.32%	56.44%	+5.87	9-7
2004-09-12	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-10	1531.59	1404.92	72.40%	27.40%	+16.01	1-0
2004-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1547.60	1489.56	52.20%	47.56%	-47.48	1-1
2004-09-26	New Orleans Saints	L 25-28	1500.12	1479.45	58.79%	40.98%	-22.46	1-2
2004-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1477.66	1431.22	50.53%	49.22%	+34.34	2-2
2004-10-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1512.00	1617.47	29.89%	69.90%	+37.75	3-2
2004-10-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-21	1549.75	1449.36	69.28%	30.51%	+17.82	4-2
2004-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-31	1567.57	1378.81	69.84%	29.95%	-63.49	4-3
2004-11-07	New England Patriots	L 22-40	1504.08	1645.71	35.92%	63.85%	-33.64	4-4
2004-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-12	1470.44	1561.32	42.88%	56.88%	+41.61	5-4
2004-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-37	1512.05	1475.50	49.11%	50.65%	-48.46	5-5
2004-11-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-45	1463.59	1598.10	26.52%	73.29%	-30.97	5-6
2004-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-6	1432.62	1252.70	78.08%	21.75%	+15.18	6-6
2004-12-12	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-20	1447.80	1522.95	33.67%	66.11%	-26.80	6-7
2004-12-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-31	1421.00	1299.15	61.19%	38.58%	-66.10	6-8
2004-12-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-7	1354.90	1767.80	10.55%	89.35%	+23.66	7-8
2005-01-02	New York Jets	W 32-29	1378.56	1592.91	26.96%	72.84%	+27.81	8-8
2004-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1523.47	1457.87	53.29%	46.47%	-28.79	0-1
2004-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-10	1494.68	1559.27	46.62%	53.14%	-20.58	0-2
2004-09-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-30	1474.10	1460.54	45.81%	53.95%	-31.97	0-3
2004-10-03	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1442.13	1570.75	37.66%	62.11%	-14.40	0-4
2004-10-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1427.73	1432.83	43.16%	56.60%	+21.63	1-4
2004-10-18	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-28	1449.36	1549.75	30.51%	69.28%	-17.82	1-5
2004-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 19-7	1431.54	1438.55	54.88%	44.88%	+34.31	2-5
2004-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1465.85	1572.93	40.61%	59.15%	+22.60	3-5
2004-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1488.45	1525.81	38.68%	61.09%	-27.00	3-6
2004-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-3	1461.45	1306.86	75.49%	24.33%	+30.37	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-21	1491.82	1465.68	47.61%	52.14%	-27.79	4-7
2004-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-0	1464.03	1582.85	39.00%	60.77%	+69.64	5-7
2004-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-31	1533.67	1644.95	29.20%	70.60%	-17.05	5-8
2004-12-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-21	1516.62	1408.86	70.18%	29.62%	-30.95	5-9
2004-12-26	Carolina Panthers	L 20-37	1485.67	1532.36	49.19%	50.57%	-44.74	5-10
2005-01-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-12	1440.93	1352.32	56.56%	43.20%	-27.90	5-11
2004-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1559.13	1542.84	46.20%	53.56%	+37.36	1-0
2004-09-19	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-31	1596.49	1537.12	64.05%	35.72%	-52.85	1-1
2004-09-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 12-15	1543.64	1508.44	60.79%	38.97%	-23.22	1-2
2004-10-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1520.42	1432.76	56.43%	43.33%	-57.04	1-3
2004-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 48-27	1463.38	1481.60	41.32%	58.44%	+59.07	2-3
2004-10-17	Houston Texans	L 10-20	1522.45	1421.08	69.40%	30.39%	-48.39	2-4
2004-10-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-20	1474.06	1588.23	28.85%	70.94%	-26.26	2-5
2004-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1447.80	1433.28	57.93%	41.84%	+24.43	3-5
2004-11-14	Chicago Bears	L 17-19	1472.23	1477.64	55.11%	44.65%	-17.19	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 18-15	1455.04	1499.01	37.78%	61.99%	+23.68	4-6
2004-11-28	@ Houston Texans	L 21-31	1478.72	1424.08	51.71%	48.05%	-36.08	4-7
2004-12-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-51	1442.64	1709.85	14.41%	85.46%	-16.51	4-8
2004-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 38-49	1426.13	1501.95	45.01%	54.75%	-32.95	4-9
2004-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 35-40	1393.18	1319.13	54.49%	45.27%	-26.88	4-10
2004-12-25	Denver Broncos	L 16-37	1366.30	1514.51	35.06%	64.72%	-35.46	4-11
2005-01-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-19	1330.84	1403.18	45.51%	54.25%	+26.76	5-11
2004-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-10	1457.87	1523.47	46.47%	53.29%	+28.79	1-0
2004-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 14-20	1486.66	1405.51	55.51%	44.25%	-29.99	1-1
2004-09-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 18-21	1456.67	1491.57	50.88%	48.87%	-19.44	1-2
2004-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-17	1437.23	1438.74	43.67%	56.09%	-19.28	1-3
2004-10-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1417.95	1541.63	38.33%	61.44%	-22.38	1-4
2004-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1395.57	1463.44	34.61%	65.17%	+24.89	2-4
2004-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 14-28	1420.46	1537.64	39.22%	60.55%	-32.39	2-5
2004-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1388.07	1453.47	34.93%	64.85%	+37.83	3-5
2004-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1425.90	1460.95	50.86%	48.89%	-29.69	3-6
2004-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-28	1396.21	1676.93	13.48%	86.40%	-13.94	3-7
2004-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-16	1382.27	1715.83	10.31%	89.59%	-6.82	3-8
2004-12-05	New York Giants	W 31-7	1375.45	1457.82	44.08%	55.68%	+60.16	4-8
2004-12-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1435.61	1757.67	16.58%	83.28%	-6.33	4-9
2004-12-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-16	1429.28	1263.37	67.00%	32.78%	+22.88	5-9
2004-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-13	1452.16	1370.75	55.54%	44.22%	-21.22	5-10
2005-01-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-18	1430.94	1471.34	50.09%	49.66%	+18.98	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2005-01-15	St. Louis Rams	W 47-17	1533.94	1443.13	68.22%	31.78%	+38.31	1-0
2005-01-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-27	1572.25	1727.08	24.37%	75.63%	-22.12	1-1
2005-01-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-49	1573.52	1746.75	22.47%	77.53%	-24.73	0-1
2005-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-31	1608.86	1452.36	75.81%	24.19%	-62.43	0-1
2005-01-09	Denver Broncos	W 49-24	1746.75	1573.52	77.53%	22.47%	+24.73	1-0
2005-01-16	@ New England Patriots	L 3-20	1771.48	1791.10	41.24%	58.76%	-37.43	1-1
2005-01-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1452.36	1608.86	24.19%	75.81%	+62.43	1-0
2005-01-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-27	1514.79	1711.01	20.25%	79.75%	-16.07	1-1
2005-01-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-3	1791.10	1771.48	58.76%	41.24%	+37.43	1-0
2005-01-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-27	1828.53	1800.75	47.97%	52.03%	+42.85	2-0
2005-02-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-21	1871.38	1749.20	66.89%	33.11%	+12.62	3-0
2005-01-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1565.09	1686.47	28.09%	71.91%	+27.42	1-0
2005-01-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1592.51	1793.19	19.84%	80.16%	-7.57	1-1
2005-01-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-14	1711.01	1514.79	79.75%	20.25%	+16.07	1-0
2005-01-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-10	1727.08	1572.25	75.63%	24.37%	+22.12	2-0
2005-02-06	New England Patriots	L 21-24	1749.20	1871.38	33.11%	66.89%	-12.62	2-1
2005-01-15	New York Jets	W 20-17	1793.19	1592.51	80.16%	19.84%	+7.56	1-0
2005-01-23	New England Patriots	L 27-41	1800.75	1828.53	52.03%	47.97%	-42.85	1-1
2005-01-08	New York Jets	L 17-20	1686.47	1565.09	71.91%	28.09%	-27.41	0-1
2005-01-08	St. Louis Rams	L 20-27	1457.89	1406.37	63.13%	36.87%	-36.76	0-1
2005-01-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1406.37	1457.89	36.87%	63.13%	+36.76	1-0
2005-01-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-47	1443.13	1533.94	31.78%	68.22%	-38.31	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2004-12-27	10.55%	@ St. Louis Rams	1354.90	20	Philadelphia Eagles	1767.80	7
2	2004-12-20	11.28%	@ Miami Dolphins	1377.01	29	New England Patriots	1776.90	28
3	2005-01-02	14.62%	Cincinnati Bengals	1479.94	38	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1744.14	10
4	2004-11-28	15.92%	Oakland Raiders	1349.27	25	@ Denver Broncos	1596.00	24
5	2005-01-02	18.15%	Cleveland Browns	1314.70	22	@ Houston Texans	1533.99	14
6	2004-10-25	21.78%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1371.25	23	Denver Broncos	1634.62	10
7	2004-10-24	22.36%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1492.98	27	@ Indianapolis Colts	1666.69	24
8	2005-01-09 *	24.19%	Minnesota Vikings	1452.36	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1608.86	17
9	2004-09-19	24.75%	Chicago Bears	1452.84	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1603.44	10
10	2004-11-07	25.91%	Chicago Bears	1434.54	28	@ New York Giants	1574.48	21
11	2005-01-02	26.29%	@ Denver Broncos	1549.97	33	Indianapolis Colts	1770.30	14
12	2004-10-24	26.35%	Detroit Lions	1429.89	28	@ New York Giants	1565.86	13
13	2004-10-04	26.58%	Kansas City Chiefs	1435.65	27	@ Baltimore Ravens	1569.59	24
14	2005-01-02	26.96%	@ St. Louis Rams	1378.56	32	New York Jets	1592.91	29
15	2004-10-10	27.10%	Detroit Lions	1466.25	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1595.61	10
16	2005-01-02	28.02%	New Orleans Saints	1455.81	21	@ Carolina Panthers	1577.11	18
17	2005-01-08 *	28.09%	New York Jets	1565.09	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1686.47	17
18	2004-12-19	29.12%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1486.65	28	@ Green Bay Packers	1598.55	25
19	2004-10-31	29.19%	New York Giants	1503.15	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1614.50	13
20	2004-12-19	29.62%	New Orleans Saints	1408.86	21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1516.62	17
21	2004-10-10	29.89%	St. Louis Rams	1512.00	33	@ Seattle Seahawks	1617.47	27
22	2004-10-24	29.95%	@ Miami Dolphins	1378.81	31	St. Louis Rams	1567.57	14
23	2004-10-31	30.31%	Atlanta Falcons	1470.57	41	@ Denver Broncos	1572.60	28
24	2004-10-17	30.39%	Houston Texans	1421.08	20	@ Tennessee Titans	1522.45	10
25	2004-12-05	30.68%	Cincinnati Bengals	1500.71	27	@ Baltimore Ravens	1599.67	26

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2004-10-24	91.50	@ Kansas City Chiefs	56	1440.36	38.60%	Atlanta Falcons	10	1562.07	61.17%
2	2004-10-17	78.77	Green Bay Packers	38	1422.53	32.27%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1508.66	67.51%
3	2004-10-31	71.34	New York Giants	34	1503.15	29.19%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1614.50	70.61%
4	2004-12-05	69.64	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	1464.03	39.00%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1582.85	60.77%
5	2004-10-03	69.08	@ Arizona Cardinals	34	1359.61	35.84%	New Orleans Saints	10	1501.90	63.94%
6	2004-11-28	68.41	Buffalo Bills	38	1523.96	42.17%	@ Seattle Seahawks	9	1536.13	57.60%
7	2004-12-19	66.11	@ Arizona Cardinals	31	1299.15	38.58%	St. Louis Rams	7	1421.00	61.19%
8	2004-10-24	63.49	@ Miami Dolphins	31	1378.81	29.95%	St. Louis Rams	14	1567.57	69.84%
9	2004-10-24	62.72	Detroit Lions	28	1429.89	26.35%	@ New York Giants	13	1565.86	73.45%
10	2005-01-09 *	62.43	Minnesota Vikings	31	1452.36	24.19%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1608.86	75.81%
11	2004-12-26	62.38	Houston Texans	21	1471.61	38.04%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	0	1513.64	61.73%
12	2004-10-25	62.03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	23	1371.25	21.78%	Denver Broncos	10	1634.62	78.04%
13	2004-11-07	61.40	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1621.70	42.95%	Philadelphia Eagles	3	1712.10	56.81%
14	2004-12-05	60.17	@ Washington Redskins	31	1375.45	44.08%	New York Giants	7	1457.82	55.68%
15	2004-10-11	59.07	Tennessee Titans	48	1463.38	41.32%	@ Green Bay Packers	27	1481.60	58.44%
16	2004-12-19	57.42	@ Kansas City Chiefs	45	1534.90	50.58%	Denver Broncos	17	1571.92	49.18%
17	2004-10-03	57.04	@ San Diego Chargers	38	1432.76	43.33%	Tennessee Titans	17	1520.42	56.43%
18	2004-10-31	55.24	Atlanta Falcons	41	1470.57	30.31%	@ Denver Broncos	28	1572.60	69.48%
19	2004-09-19	54.88	Chicago Bears	21	1452.84	24.75%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1603.44	75.06%
20	2004-12-12	54.49	New Orleans Saints	27	1354.37	33.73%	@ Dallas Cowboys	13	1429.03	66.05%
21	2004-10-31	53.07	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1413.92	50.66%	Arizona Cardinals	14	1450.37	49.10%
22	2004-09-19	52.85	Indianapolis Colts	31	1537.12	35.72%	@ Tennessee Titans	17	1596.49	64.05%
23	2004-11-07	52.10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	26	1408.85	50.52%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1446.28	49.24%
24	2004-12-19	51.88	Houston Texans	24	1419.73	45.81%	@ Chicago Bears	5	1406.17	53.95%
25	2004-11-21	51.44	@ Carolina Panthers	35	1414.25	53.14%	Arizona Cardinals	10	1433.43	46.62%