2003 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2001

Runner-Up

Carolina Panthers

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

New England Patriots

4.47 wins above expected

14 wins · 9.53 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

4.05 wins below expected

4 wins · 8.05 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	—	348	238	+110	9.53	+4.47
2	Miami Dolphins	10	6	.625	4	311	261	+50	9.06	+0.94
3	New York Jets	6	10	.375	8	283	299	-16	7.59	-1.59
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	8	243	279	-36	7.60	-1.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	10	6	.625	—	391	281	+110	8.85	+1.15
2	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	2	346	384	-38	6.56	+1.44
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	.375	4	300	327	-27	7.67	-1.67
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	254	322	-68	7.00	-2.00

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tennessee Titans Division	12	4	.750	—	435	324	+111	10.09	+1.91
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	447	336	+111	9.70	+2.30
3	Houston Texans	5	11	.312	7	255	380	-125	4.72	+0.28
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	7	276	331	-55	6.13	-1.13

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	13	3	.812	—	484	332	+152	10.74	+2.26
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	381	301	+80	9.26	+0.74
3	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	9	313	441	-128	5.64	-1.64
4	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	9	270	379	-109	8.05	-4.05

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	12	4	.750	—	374	287	+87	9.56	+2.44
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	289	260	+29	7.80	+2.20
3	Washington Redskins	5	11	.312	7	287	372	-85	6.55	-1.55
4	New York Giants	4	12	.250	8	243	387	-144	7.31	-3.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	6	.625	—	442	307	+135	8.96	+1.04
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	7	.562	1	416	353	+63	8.97	+0.03
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	3	283	346	-63	6.81	+0.19
4	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	5	270	379	-109	5.59	-0.59

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	11	5	.688	—	325	304	+21	8.66	+2.34
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	3	340	326	+14	7.82	+0.18
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	9	.438	4	301	264	+37	10.33	-3.33
4	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	6	299	422	-123	6.43	-1.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Rams Division	12	4	.750	—	447	328	+119	9.85	+2.15
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	404	327	+77	9.52	+0.48
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	9	.438	5	384	337	+47	8.63	-1.63
4	Arizona Cardinals	4	12	.250	8	225	452	-227	5.05	-1.05

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Tennessee Titans 20

Baltimore Ravens 17

Jan 3

Indianapolis Colts 41

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 4

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 17

Tennessee Titans 14

Jan 10

Indianapolis Colts 38

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Jan 11

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 24

Indianapolis Colts 14

Jan 18

NFC

Wild Card Round

Carolina Panthers 29

Dallas Cowboys 10

Jan 3

Green Bay Packers 33

Seattle Seahawks 27

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Carolina Panthers 29

St. Louis Rams 23

Jan 10

Philadelphia Eagles 20

Green Bay Packers 17

Jan 11

Conference Championship

Carolina Panthers 14

Philadelphia Eagles 3

Jan 18

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 32

Carolina Panthers 29

Feb 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1702	14	9.53	+4.47	99.86%	3	6	8	10	11	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1668	12	9.56	+2.44	94.92%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1656	12	10.09	+1.91	91.19%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1646	10	8.96	+1.04	78.55%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1617	13	10.74	+2.26	94.54%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1605	10	9.06	+0.94	78.15%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1605	12	9.85	+2.15	92.51%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1602	12	9.70	+2.30	94.38%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1600	10	9.26	+0.74	74.82%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1594	10	8.85	+1.15	81.07%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1556	7	10.33	-3.33	5.89%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1541	10	9.52	+0.48	70.35%	1	6	8	10	11	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1536	9	8.97	+0.03	60.97%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1521	10	7.80	+2.20	93.30%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1516	11	8.66	+2.34	93.83%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1514	8	7.82	+0.18	64.58%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1509	7	8.63	-1.63	27.37%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1488	6	7.59	-1.59	29.05%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1461	6	7.60	-1.60	28.00%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1459	6	7.67	-1.67	26.93%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1444	7	6.81	+0.19	65.76%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1439	8	6.56	+1.44	85.40%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1428	5	6.43	-1.43	31.63%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1425	5	6.13	-1.13	37.60%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1407	5	7.00	-2.00	20.45%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1391	4	8.05	-4.05	3.02%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1388	5	6.55	-1.55	29.86%	0	3	5	7	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1377	5	5.59	-0.59	49.24%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1366	4	5.64	-1.64	27.77%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1329	4	7.31	-3.31	6.02%	0	4	6	7	9	10	14
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1324	5	4.72	+0.28	68.09%	0	2	3	5	6	8	12
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1285	4	5.05	-1.05	39.54%	0	2	4	5	6	8	14

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	14	9.53	+4.47
2	Philadelphia Eagles	12	9.56	+2.44
3	Carolina Panthers	11	8.66	+2.34
4	Indianapolis Colts	12	9.70	+2.30
5	Kansas City Chiefs	13	10.74	+2.26

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	4	8.05	-4.05
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	10.33	-3.33
3	New York Giants	4	7.31	-3.31
4	Cleveland Browns	5	7.00	-2.00
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	7.67	-1.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	12	Oct 5 – Dec 27	1 in 362
2	Philadelphia Eagles	9	Oct 19 – Dec 15	1 in 132
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 7 – Nov 9	1 in 84
4	Carolina Panthers	5	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 70
5	Dallas Cowboys	5	Sep 15 – Oct 19	1 in 67

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	8	Nov 9 – Dec 28	1 in 165
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 123
3	Minnesota Vikings	4	Oct 26 – Nov 16	1 in 69
4	Oakland Raiders	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 57
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	Nov 2 – Nov 16	1 in 42

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	44.72%	28.52%	17.66%	9.10%
Miami Dolphins	31.79%	31.93%	22.12%	14.16%
Buffalo Bills	11.89%	19.73%	30.62%	37.76%
New York Jets	11.60%	19.82%	29.60%	38.98%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	50.25%	26.38%	15.12%	8.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	23.86%	31.04%	25.55%	19.55%
Cleveland Browns	14.78%	23.69%	31.02%	30.51%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.11%	18.89%	28.31%	41.69%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tennessee Titans	54.26%	38.52%	6.40%	0.82%
Indianapolis Colts	42.82%	46.86%	9.06%	1.26%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.43%	11.14%	56.71%	29.72%
Houston Texans	0.49%	3.48%	27.83%	68.20%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	62.50%	26.32%	9.43%	1.75%
Denver Broncos	25.60%	41.25%	25.93%	7.22%
Oakland Raiders	10.71%	26.97%	44.38%	17.94%
San Diego Chargers	1.19%	5.46%	20.26%	73.09%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	59.56%	23.52%	11.94%	4.98%
Dallas Cowboys	18.79%	31.97%	29.18%	20.06%
New York Giants	13.85%	25.64%	31.87%	28.64%
Washington Redskins	7.80%	18.87%	27.01%	46.32%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	43.22%	34.29%	16.41%	6.08%
Minnesota Vikings	43.15%	34.24%	16.63%	5.98%
Chicago Bears	10.23%	21.40%	38.98%	29.39%
Detroit Lions	3.40%	10.07%	27.98%	58.55%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	63.32%	23.85%	9.91%	2.92%
Carolina Panthers	21.27%	37.09%	26.90%	14.74%
New Orleans Saints	11.66%	26.32%	36.42%	25.60%
Atlanta Falcons	3.75%	12.74%	26.77%	56.74%

Team	1	2	3	4
St. Louis Rams	42.59%	32.60%	21.45%	3.36%
Seattle Seahawks	34.85%	35.09%	26.14%	3.92%
San Francisco 49ers	21.79%	29.53%	40.66%	8.02%
Arizona Cardinals	0.77%	2.78%	11.75%	84.70%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	27.73%	18.50%	13.11%	10.45%	7.84%	6.32%	4.65%	3.36%	2.67%	2.01%	1.52%	0.80%	0.57%	0.29%	0.14%	0.04%
Tennessee Titans	17.19%	16.07%	13.12%	11.04%	9.44%	7.85%	6.92%	5.69%	4.23%	3.06%	1.99%	1.51%	1.01%	0.50%	0.24%	0.14%
Indianapolis Colts	12.09%	12.72%	11.72%	11.46%	10.37%	9.78%	8.30%	6.78%	4.96%	3.76%	2.97%	2.09%	1.44%	0.88%	0.52%	0.16%
New England Patriots	10.75%	12.20%	11.84%	10.11%	9.61%	9.05%	7.53%	6.77%	6.00%	4.71%	3.78%	2.84%	2.23%	1.41%	0.83%	0.34%
Denver Broncos	9.09%	9.07%	9.13%	9.47%	10.28%	9.76%	8.98%	7.33%	6.94%	6.09%	4.30%	3.40%	2.69%	1.89%	1.15%	0.43%
Miami Dolphins	7.61%	8.87%	9.33%	8.96%	9.33%	8.84%	8.57%	7.76%	6.77%	6.29%	5.25%	4.26%	3.57%	2.54%	1.43%	0.62%
Baltimore Ravens	6.08%	7.62%	10.07%	11.00%	9.33%	8.47%	8.02%	8.10%	7.36%	5.68%	5.16%	4.25%	3.25%	2.83%	1.74%	1.04%
Oakland Raiders	3.03%	3.60%	4.73%	5.57%	6.58%	7.80%	8.17%	8.29%	8.76%	9.37%	8.53%	7.68%	6.44%	5.45%	3.94%	2.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.71%	2.84%	4.78%	5.19%	6.37%	7.14%	7.87%	9.14%	8.42%	8.47%	8.13%	7.91%	7.01%	6.78%	5.24%	3.00%
Buffalo Bills	1.65%	2.72%	3.57%	4.24%	5.47%	6.02%	6.70%	7.55%	8.78%	9.42%	9.01%	8.92%	9.23%	7.93%	5.52%	3.27%
New York Jets	1.83%	2.92%	3.49%	4.41%	5.09%	5.94%	6.86%	7.69%	8.39%	8.92%	8.33%	8.86%	9.63%	8.17%	5.74%	3.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.58%	1.28%	2.04%	3.57%	4.03%	4.85%	6.67%	7.01%	7.94%	9.05%	9.81%	10.22%	9.97%	9.40%	8.45%	5.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.34%	0.81%	1.80%	2.50%	2.92%	3.78%	4.66%	5.97%	6.80%	7.09%	9.92%	9.67%	10.05%	12.01%	12.23%	9.45%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.45%	0.77%	1.25%	1.77%	2.18%	2.95%	4.15%	5.69%	7.77%	10.14%	12.17%	12.59%	12.69%	12.29%	12.95%
San Diego Chargers	0.10%	0.24%	0.46%	0.56%	1.25%	1.69%	2.15%	3.00%	4.14%	5.21%	6.69%	8.62%	10.74%	15.13%	20.68%	19.34%
Houston Texans	0.03%	0.09%	0.04%	0.22%	0.32%	0.53%	1.00%	1.41%	2.15%	3.10%	4.47%	6.80%	9.58%	12.10%	19.86%	38.30%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23.17%	17.63%	13.52%	10.41%	8.09%	6.59%	5.61%	4.15%	3.46%	2.41%	1.92%	1.31%	0.93%	0.44%	0.27%	0.09%
St. Louis Rams	16.27%	13.37%	11.36%	9.97%	9.99%	8.32%	6.85%	5.91%	5.00%	4.16%	3.07%	2.31%	1.53%	0.90%	0.73%	0.26%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.43%	13.03%	12.70%	11.34%	8.80%	7.99%	7.38%	5.46%	5.12%	4.28%	3.34%	2.44%	2.01%	1.46%	0.82%	0.40%
Seattle Seahawks	11.96%	11.26%	10.68%	10.04%	9.85%	8.42%	8.41%	6.81%	5.96%	5.31%	4.19%	2.99%	1.89%	1.02%	0.78%	0.43%
Green Bay Packers	8.35%	9.37%	9.83%	9.23%	9.35%	8.47%	8.15%	7.60%	6.53%	5.45%	4.74%	4.87%	3.15%	2.25%	1.74%	0.92%
Minnesota Vikings	7.73%	8.91%	10.04%	10.14%	9.15%	9.09%	7.74%	7.98%	6.46%	5.50%	5.23%	4.05%	3.05%	2.37%	1.60%	0.96%
San Francisco 49ers	6.01%	6.58%	7.38%	7.57%	8.49%	8.20%	7.98%	8.17%	8.51%	8.39%	7.02%	5.63%	4.00%	3.02%	2.02%	1.03%
Carolina Panthers	5.17%	6.91%	7.10%	8.22%	8.71%	8.80%	8.51%	8.86%	7.31%	7.50%	6.38%	5.12%	4.29%	3.51%	2.23%	1.38%
Dallas Cowboys	2.19%	3.19%	4.37%	5.46%	6.23%	7.28%	8.27%	8.69%	8.67%	8.38%	8.64%	7.80%	7.32%	5.78%	4.39%	3.34%
New Orleans Saints	2.35%	3.78%	4.15%	4.94%	5.92%	6.85%	7.35%	8.09%	9.08%	8.49%	8.73%	8.13%	8.12%	6.10%	5.13%	2.79%
New York Giants	1.25%	2.31%	3.10%	4.25%	4.56%	5.83%	6.59%	7.33%	8.27%	8.54%	9.53%	9.16%	9.76%	8.27%	6.73%	4.52%
Chicago Bears	0.72%	1.45%	2.04%	3.03%	3.27%	4.24%	5.14%	6.13%	7.18%	8.11%	9.92%	11.16%	10.46%	10.44%	9.23%	7.48%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	0.98%	1.67%	2.38%	3.27%	3.81%	4.89%	5.45%	6.23%	7.48%	8.14%	9.08%	10.94%	11.84%	12.27%	10.90%
Atlanta Falcons	0.50%	0.84%	1.27%	1.76%	2.56%	3.59%	3.99%	4.82%	5.94%	7.26%	8.11%	9.92%	11.86%	13.32%	13.05%	11.21%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.29%	0.53%	0.81%	1.21%	1.73%	2.12%	3.06%	3.93%	5.24%	6.73%	9.51%	11.03%	14.90%	17.61%	21.17%
Arizona Cardinals	0.10%	0.10%	0.26%	0.45%	0.55%	0.79%	1.02%	1.49%	2.35%	3.50%	4.31%	6.52%	9.66%	14.38%	21.40%	33.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	17.00%	12.60%	9.35%	8.31%	6.59%	6.30%	5.40%	5.11%	4.04%	3.68%	2.95%	3.01%	2.45%	2.16%	1.89%	1.49%	1.38%	1.18%	1.04%	0.93%	0.83%	0.60%	0.45%	0.35%	0.28%	0.25%	0.12%	0.12%	0.04%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11.90%	10.48%	8.69%	8.68%	6.87%	6.89%	5.62%	5.13%	4.52%	3.83%	3.74%	3.12%	2.87%	2.51%	2.55%	1.90%	1.72%	1.75%	1.28%	1.25%	0.90%	0.94%	0.84%	0.48%	0.41%	0.41%	0.28%	0.13%	0.13%	0.14%	0.03%	0.01%
Tennessee Titans	9.89%	8.39%	8.76%	7.36%	7.10%	6.16%	5.11%	5.50%	4.58%	4.66%	3.51%	4.01%	3.27%	3.19%	2.78%	2.62%	2.17%	2.16%	1.60%	1.57%	1.14%	1.06%	0.71%	0.76%	0.57%	0.49%	0.28%	0.23%	0.17%	0.09%	0.08%	0.03%
St. Louis Rams	7.82%	7.51%	7.49%	6.56%	5.73%	5.87%	5.23%	5.32%	4.98%	4.65%	4.53%	4.07%	3.39%	3.45%	3.14%	2.84%	2.35%	2.22%	2.38%	1.89%	1.38%	1.39%	1.39%	1.13%	0.90%	0.62%	0.52%	0.46%	0.35%	0.25%	0.14%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts	6.66%	6.24%	6.28%	6.50%	6.12%	5.61%	6.15%	5.59%	5.26%	5.02%	4.72%	4.72%	3.46%	3.83%	3.13%	3.60%	2.55%	2.58%	1.65%	1.98%	1.75%	1.38%	1.09%	0.95%	0.87%	0.67%	0.62%	0.37%	0.29%	0.17%	0.12%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.11%	6.63%	6.41%	6.68%	6.16%	6.02%	5.88%	5.24%	4.77%	4.40%	4.31%	4.08%	3.60%	3.48%	3.27%	2.97%	2.59%	2.27%	2.54%	2.16%	1.72%	1.73%	1.30%	1.10%	1.15%	0.92%	0.70%	0.67%	0.45%	0.40%	0.17%	0.12%
New England Patriots	5.56%	5.98%	6.17%	5.98%	6.21%	5.58%	5.11%	4.93%	4.84%	4.83%	4.68%	3.87%	4.12%	3.69%	3.62%	3.21%	3.14%	2.49%	2.47%	2.29%	1.99%	1.83%	1.56%	1.43%	1.00%	0.95%	0.64%	0.74%	0.46%	0.29%	0.22%	0.12%
Seattle Seahawks	5.62%	5.97%	5.51%	5.96%	5.36%	5.36%	5.29%	5.02%	5.20%	4.90%	4.37%	4.07%	4.28%	4.24%	3.53%	3.05%	3.08%	3.00%	2.61%	2.50%	2.11%	1.96%	1.53%	1.42%	1.06%	0.81%	0.60%	0.57%	0.34%	0.29%	0.26%	0.13%
Denver Broncos	4.67%	4.90%	4.58%	4.93%	4.84%	4.21%	5.08%	4.99%	4.86%	4.64%	5.09%	5.00%	4.39%	4.13%	3.67%	3.44%	3.76%	3.13%	3.13%	2.79%	2.36%	1.97%	1.79%	1.70%	1.44%	1.27%	1.00%	0.71%	0.59%	0.48%	0.33%	0.13%
Miami Dolphins	3.73%	4.02%	4.77%	4.50%	4.50%	4.97%	4.61%	4.37%	4.71%	4.86%	4.51%	4.00%	4.43%	4.38%	3.56%	3.54%	3.67%	3.18%	3.21%	3.07%	2.85%	2.59%	2.14%	2.04%	1.74%	1.55%	1.46%	1.07%	0.84%	0.58%	0.35%	0.20%
Green Bay Packers	3.69%	4.08%	4.88%	4.57%	5.10%	4.50%	4.85%	4.44%	4.60%	4.53%	4.33%	4.48%	3.95%	4.12%	3.66%	4.06%	3.25%	3.18%	2.79%	3.12%	2.46%	2.42%	2.24%	2.36%	1.71%	1.80%	1.34%	1.08%	0.91%	0.73%	0.47%	0.30%
Minnesota Vikings	3.39%	3.86%	4.52%	4.30%	4.68%	5.42%	4.73%	5.03%	4.55%	4.57%	4.63%	4.62%	3.87%	3.96%	4.04%	4.08%	3.29%	3.37%	2.82%	3.03%	2.68%	2.45%	1.93%	2.04%	1.73%	1.50%	1.38%	1.15%	0.82%	0.82%	0.49%	0.25%
Baltimore Ravens	3.06%	3.41%	3.73%	4.07%	4.64%	5.24%	4.95%	5.27%	4.04%	4.84%	4.60%	4.34%	3.84%	3.96%	3.95%	4.31%	3.79%	3.46%	3.01%	2.98%	2.59%	2.62%	2.15%	2.04%	1.85%	1.53%	1.59%	1.36%	1.06%	0.83%	0.61%	0.28%
San Francisco 49ers	2.41%	3.00%	3.07%	3.54%	3.62%	4.05%	4.07%	3.81%	4.67%	3.79%	4.11%	3.88%	4.42%	4.04%	4.20%	4.40%	4.13%	4.26%	3.80%	4.23%	3.29%	3.47%	2.85%	2.67%	2.34%	1.75%	1.83%	1.32%	1.11%	0.98%	0.58%	0.31%
Carolina Panthers	2.07%	3.01%	3.04%	3.57%	3.94%	3.66%	4.04%	4.41%	4.11%	4.52%	3.79%	4.57%	4.30%	4.68%	4.01%	4.65%	3.66%	4.12%	3.76%	3.61%	3.31%	2.94%	2.58%	2.49%	2.35%	2.05%	1.73%	1.54%	1.35%	0.89%	0.74%	0.51%
Oakland Raiders	1.30%	1.75%	1.94%	1.91%	2.45%	2.49%	2.90%	2.79%	3.47%	3.55%	3.86%	3.65%	4.36%	4.12%	4.03%	3.85%	4.42%	4.18%	4.60%	4.06%	4.10%	4.31%	4.04%	3.84%	3.14%	3.58%	2.51%	2.64%	2.27%	1.80%	1.18%	0.91%
Dallas Cowboys	0.75%	1.20%	1.45%	1.63%	1.96%	2.20%	2.88%	2.82%	2.93%	3.27%	3.46%	3.75%	4.33%	4.25%	4.07%	4.34%	4.13%	4.68%	4.52%	4.12%	4.26%	4.26%	4.02%	4.11%	3.87%	3.49%	2.92%	2.84%	2.62%	2.08%	1.83%	0.96%
New Orleans Saints	0.82%	1.47%	1.70%	1.84%	2.15%	2.14%	2.34%	2.67%	3.08%	3.05%	3.34%	3.51%	3.63%	4.30%	3.87%	3.94%	4.29%	4.74%	4.35%	4.00%	4.39%	4.37%	4.29%	3.95%	4.20%	3.80%	3.53%	2.82%	2.78%	2.07%	1.63%	0.94%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.77%	0.93%	1.42%	1.74%	2.13%	2.19%	2.34%	2.75%	2.91%	3.45%	3.47%	3.63%	3.77%	3.95%	4.36%	4.84%	3.84%	4.26%	4.39%	4.21%	4.02%	4.22%	3.90%	4.01%	3.40%	3.92%	3.56%	3.22%	2.77%	2.53%	1.72%	1.38%
Buffalo Bills	0.71%	0.94%	1.18%	1.29%	1.79%	1.85%	2.20%	2.44%	2.95%	2.66%	2.76%	2.98%	3.76%	3.42%	3.73%	3.70%	4.50%	4.17%	4.84%	4.44%	4.73%	4.63%	4.73%	4.34%	4.30%	4.32%	4.08%	3.73%	2.91%	2.69%	1.82%	1.41%
New York Jets	0.58%	1.25%	1.47%	1.41%	1.66%	1.94%	2.17%	2.11%	2.74%	2.63%	3.01%	3.13%	3.63%	3.59%	4.00%	3.60%	4.19%	4.37%	4.60%	4.00%	4.27%	4.07%	4.42%	4.33%	4.78%	4.62%	3.98%	3.85%	2.91%	2.85%	2.28%	1.56%
New York Giants	0.36%	0.66%	0.88%	1.26%	1.54%	1.60%	1.79%	2.18%	2.23%	2.28%	3.07%	2.85%	3.33%	3.51%	3.77%	3.58%	4.41%	3.96%	4.28%	4.36%	4.93%	4.61%	4.60%	4.70%	5.27%	4.42%	4.33%	4.42%	3.32%	3.29%	2.48%	1.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.17%	0.38%	0.61%	0.79%	0.85%	1.01%	1.45%	1.69%	1.92%	2.14%	2.46%	2.81%	2.93%	3.10%	3.26%	3.92%	3.84%	4.36%	3.94%	4.81%	5.03%	4.99%	4.79%	5.15%	5.06%	4.89%	5.08%	4.47%	4.43%	4.19%	3.27%	2.21%
Chicago Bears	0.25%	0.37%	0.49%	0.69%	0.91%	1.16%	1.25%	1.33%	1.73%	1.92%	1.90%	2.32%	2.34%	2.55%	3.26%	3.01%	3.37%	3.89%	4.13%	4.07%	4.76%	5.41%	5.21%	5.62%	4.87%	5.66%	5.57%	5.17%	5.14%	4.19%	4.27%	3.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.15%	0.19%	0.41%	0.37%	0.84%	0.94%	1.11%	1.20%	1.19%	1.64%	1.84%	2.11%	2.14%	2.40%	2.81%	3.03%	3.12%	3.44%	3.54%	3.86%	4.78%	4.69%	5.05%	4.82%	5.31%	5.07%	5.88%	6.26%	6.09%	5.97%	4.96%	4.79%
Washington Redskins	0.16%	0.31%	0.48%	0.53%	0.70%	0.81%	1.13%	1.18%	1.51%	1.76%	1.78%	2.12%	2.35%	2.50%	2.77%	2.75%	3.11%	3.09%	3.65%	4.10%	3.93%	4.06%	4.57%	4.94%	5.38%	5.72%	6.04%	6.01%	5.80%	6.14%	5.93%	4.69%
Atlanta Falcons	0.19%	0.21%	0.36%	0.39%	0.57%	0.64%	0.96%	0.91%	1.26%	1.25%	1.79%	1.71%	1.96%	1.92%	2.46%	2.62%	3.09%	3.14%	3.44%	3.85%	3.94%	4.27%	5.21%	5.07%	5.88%	5.95%	6.09%	6.61%	6.41%	7.05%	5.36%	5.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.08%	0.11%	0.10%	0.29%	0.42%	0.46%	0.51%	0.71%	0.97%	0.85%	1.02%	1.29%	1.51%	1.50%	2.16%	1.85%	2.92%	2.92%	3.49%	3.97%	4.30%	5.41%	5.29%	6.06%	5.71%	6.42%	6.14%	6.65%	6.63%	6.76%	6.75%	6.75%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.04%	0.14%	0.14%	0.19%	0.28%	0.29%	0.42%	0.41%	0.67%	0.87%	0.86%	0.95%	1.11%	1.43%	1.76%	1.69%	2.10%	2.54%	2.79%	3.61%	3.36%	4.49%	4.67%	5.63%	5.62%	7.03%	7.83%	9.43%	8.65%	10.31%	10.65%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.06%	0.06%	0.10%	0.25%	0.29%	0.27%	0.29%	0.52%	0.74%	0.86%	0.71%	1.28%	1.05%	1.56%	1.51%	2.27%	2.00%	2.60%	2.48%	3.28%	3.25%	4.55%	4.25%	4.99%	6.06%	6.66%	7.73%	8.99%	10.71%	9.88%	10.70%
Arizona Cardinals	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.07%	0.09%	0.13%	0.20%	0.26%	0.27%	0.29%	0.33%	0.41%	0.62%	0.47%	0.77%	0.82%	1.16%	1.34%	1.78%	1.94%	2.15%	2.30%	3.41%	3.53%	4.64%	4.97%	6.78%	7.54%	9.65%	11.32%	15.38%	17.28%
Houston Texans	0.01%	—	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.09%	0.18%	0.13%	0.31%	0.32%	0.47%	0.44%	0.69%	0.72%	1.12%	1.01%	1.22%	1.54%	2.16%	2.44%	2.88%	3.65%	4.17%	4.92%	5.73%	6.69%	8.94%	10.72%	16.32%	22.89%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	27.73%	17.76%	11.09%	5.92%	12.15%	8.24%	17.11%
Tennessee Titans	17.19%	15.89%	12.94%	8.24%	11.57%	8.74%	25.43%
Indianapolis Colts	12.09%	12.38%	10.95%	7.40%	13.71%	10.89%	32.58%
New England Patriots	10.75%	12.80%	12.70%	8.47%	8.50%	8.93%	37.85%
Denver Broncos	9.09%	7.91%	5.79%	2.81%	15.99%	13.03%	45.38%
Miami Dolphins	7.61%	9.17%	9.50%	5.51%	10.22%	9.41%	48.58%
Baltimore Ravens	6.08%	8.40%	13.30%	22.47%	2.60%	4.27%	42.88%
Oakland Raiders	3.03%	3.09%	2.88%	1.71%	9.05%	9.26%	70.98%
New York Jets	1.83%	3.09%	3.61%	3.07%	4.55%	6.31%	77.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.71%	3.25%	5.96%	12.94%	2.62%	4.37%	69.15%
Buffalo Bills	1.65%	2.89%	3.96%	3.39%	4.21%	6.30%	77.60%
Cleveland Browns	0.58%	1.52%	3.26%	9.42%	1.37%	3.02%	80.83%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.34%	0.96%	2.76%	7.05%	0.76%	2.49%	85.64%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.53%	0.91%	0.80%	1.46%	2.45%	93.66%
San Diego Chargers	0.10%	0.25%	0.32%	0.52%	1.02%	1.77%	96.02%
Houston Texans	0.03%	0.11%	0.07%	0.28%	0.22%	0.52%	98.77%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23.17%	18.10%	13.41%	8.64%	8.36%	7.45%	20.87%
St. Louis Rams	16.27%	12.57%	8.35%	5.40%	15.08%	10.08%	32.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.43%	14.12%	15.79%	16.22%	4.29%	5.70%	30.45%
Seattle Seahawks	11.96%	10.30%	7.72%	4.87%	15.23%	10.50%	39.42%
Green Bay Packers	8.35%	9.74%	11.74%	13.39%	6.25%	6.92%	43.61%
Minnesota Vikings	7.73%	9.36%	11.79%	14.27%	6.52%	7.31%	43.02%
San Francisco 49ers	6.01%	6.05%	5.86%	3.87%	10.56%	9.82%	57.83%
Carolina Panthers	5.17%	6.38%	5.65%	4.07%	11.26%	10.97%	56.50%
New Orleans Saints	2.35%	3.52%	3.16%	2.63%	7.07%	7.85%	73.42%
Dallas Cowboys	2.19%	3.30%	5.50%	7.80%	4.26%	6.15%	70.80%
New York Giants	1.25%	2.53%	4.01%	6.06%	3.25%	4.95%	77.95%
Chicago Bears	0.72%	1.62%	2.69%	5.20%	2.08%	3.35%	84.34%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	1.17%	2.27%	3.69%	2.04%	3.37%	86.79%
Atlanta Falcons	0.50%	0.79%	1.00%	1.46%	2.61%	3.59%	90.05%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.35%	0.75%	2.17%	0.54%	1.24%	94.82%
Arizona Cardinals	0.10%	0.10%	0.31%	0.26%	0.60%	0.75%	97.88%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	58.13%	58.13%	37.37%	23.45%	12.98%
New England Patriots	50.14%	50.14%	32.06%	19.49%	12.34%
Tennessee Titans	58.75%	58.75%	34.49%	19.36%	11.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.81%	66.81%	37.36%	19.20%	9.97%
Green Bay Packers	43.79%	43.79%	25.81%	14.61%	7.92%
St. Louis Rams	50.59%	50.59%	29.21%	15.63%	7.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	61.86%	61.86%	30.91%	14.74%	5.98%
Indianapolis Colts	46.87%	46.87%	23.98%	11.58%	5.79%
Miami Dolphins	35.60%	35.60%	18.20%	8.93%	4.57%
Baltimore Ravens	42.64%	40.61%	17.88%	8.22%	4.18%
Denver Broncos	37.62%	35.43%	17.60%	8.15%	4.12%
Seattle Seahawks	39.74%	39.74%	19.09%	8.80%	3.44%
Minnesota Vikings	39.89%	38.01%	17.01%	7.23%	2.70%
San Francisco 49ers	30.11%	24.50%	10.51%	4.28%	1.57%
Carolina Panthers	31.95%	24.82%	10.40%	4.07%	1.52%
Dallas Cowboys	23.71%	16.80%	6.82%	2.94%	1.20%
New Orleans Saints	20.71%	14.43%	5.85%	2.35%	0.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.89%	15.38%	4.22%	1.13%	0.54%
New York Jets	17.54%	11.10%	3.93%	1.29%	0.45%
Buffalo Bills	17.86%	10.40%	3.37%	1.01%	0.33%
Chicago Bears	13.32%	7.56%	2.21%	0.70%	0.22%
Oakland Raiders	22.90%	11.07%	2.79%	0.79%	0.21%
Washington Redskins	11.37%	5.32%	1.37%	0.35%	0.12%
Atlanta Falcons	8.66%	3.83%	1.11%	0.30%	0.11%
Cleveland Browns	17.07%	7.99%	1.76%	0.44%	0.11%
New York Giants	18.27%	8.27%	1.80%	0.45%	0.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	13.06%	6.09%	1.46%	0.29%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	4.70%	1.88%	0.46%	0.09%	0.03%
San Diego Chargers	3.63%	1.08%	0.26%	0.04%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.62%	2.33%	0.58%	0.08%	0.01%
Houston Texans	1.09%	0.35%	0.06%	—	—
Arizona Cardinals	1.92%	0.47%	0.07%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.46%	0.64%	0.99%	3.57%	0.11%	3.02%	0.56%	2.57%	2.54%	1.62%	1.55%	3.06%	1.75%	0.45%	2.24%
Buffalo Bills	0.55%		0.28%	0.47%	0.48%	0.04%	0.79%	0.09%	0.47%	0.45%	0.27%	0.28%	0.54%	0.54%	0.09%	0.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.23%	0.28%		0.15%	0.54%	0.03%	0.64%	0.08%	0.44%	0.42%	0.34%	0.23%	0.70%	0.18%	0.13%	0.40%
Cleveland Browns	0.35%	0.34%	0.12%		0.78%	0.01%	0.75%	0.16%	0.55%	0.50%	0.27%	0.42%	0.83%	0.34%	0.10%	0.37%
Denver Broncos	2.47%	0.93%	1.08%	1.64%		0.07%	1.52%	0.31%	2.14%	1.46%	1.19%	0.89%	0.95%	2.21%	0.12%	1.45%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%						0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	2.22%	1.79%	1.10%	1.29%	2.21%	0.06%		0.28%	1.79%	2.02%	1.82%	1.51%	1.85%	1.70%	0.38%	2.38%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.20%	0.14%	0.09%	0.16%	0.12%		0.08%		0.07%	0.11%	0.11%	0.14%	0.14%	0.11%	0.03%	0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.22%	1.37%	1.16%	1.15%	2.25%	0.14%	2.32%	0.41%		1.60%	1.41%	1.23%	2.02%	2.02%	0.35%	1.67%
Miami Dolphins	1.81%	1.06%	0.85%	1.19%	1.67%	0.13%	2.17%	0.41%	1.68%		1.57%	0.96%	1.62%	1.62%	0.34%	1.74%
New England Patriots	2.37%	1.73%	1.00%	1.37%	2.76%	0.14%	3.30%	0.68%	2.06%	2.54%		1.59%	2.22%	1.73%	0.30%	2.80%
New York Jets	0.64%	0.26%	0.27%	0.41%	0.62%	0.01%	0.76%	0.15%	0.44%	0.39%	0.32%		0.52%	0.64%	0.08%	0.67%
Oakland Raiders	0.61%	0.34%	0.39%	0.46%	0.25%	0.01%	0.39%	0.16%	0.54%	0.39%	0.28%	0.27%		0.57%		0.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.66%	0.72%	0.26%	0.29%	1.29%	0.06%	1.13%	0.22%	1.15%	0.83%	0.46%	0.65%	1.44%		0.17%	1.09%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.08%	0.08%	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%		0.05%	0.05%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.05%		0.08%
Tennessee Titans	2.11%	1.48%	0.94%	1.51%	2.62%	0.06%	3.62%	0.50%	2.13%	2.52%	2.32%	1.58%	1.94%	1.99%	0.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%		0.11%	0.20%	0.15%	0.08%	0.20%	0.30%	0.09%	0.22%	0.14%	0.17%	0.24%	0.19%	0.26%	0.18%
Carolina Panthers	0.13%	0.27%		0.63%	1.05%	0.23%	0.88%	1.50%	0.57%	1.07%	1.01%	1.06%	1.28%	1.19%	1.71%	0.69%
Chicago Bears	0.10%	0.15%	0.55%		0.43%	0.06%	0.20%	0.44%	0.30%	0.38%	0.25%	0.57%	0.61%	0.49%	0.55%	0.14%
Dallas Cowboys	0.08%	0.36%	1.51%	0.30%		0.17%	0.69%	0.92%	0.81%	0.58%	0.91%	1.11%	1.42%	0.98%	1.21%	0.26%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.06%	0.14%	0.02%	0.07%		0.03%	0.12%	0.12%	0.16%	0.02%	0.20%	0.13%	0.14%	0.11%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	0.17%	0.75%	2.47%	0.89%	1.37%	0.28%		3.08%	1.60%	1.69%	1.33%	2.69%	3.30%	2.90%	2.41%	0.77%
Minnesota Vikings	0.17%	0.63%	2.41%	0.65%	1.23%	0.29%	1.47%		1.63%	1.24%	1.26%	2.46%	2.62%	2.47%	1.65%	0.74%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.17%	0.55%	0.45%	0.67%	0.23%	0.56%	0.89%		0.77%	0.65%	0.68%	0.89%	0.62%	0.95%	0.43%
New York Giants	0.12%	0.32%	0.54%	0.17%	0.21%	0.06%	0.23%	0.35%	0.30%		0.29%	0.46%	0.49%	0.37%	0.46%	0.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.23%	1.15%	3.40%	0.87%	1.82%	0.31%	1.99%	2.53%	2.16%	1.95%		3.04%	3.88%	3.17%	2.84%	1.24%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.36%	1.07%	0.64%	0.95%	0.29%	1.08%	1.54%	0.64%	1.01%	0.92%		1.17%	1.02%	1.11%	0.57%
Seattle Seahawks	0.17%	0.47%	1.49%	1.08%	1.29%	0.46%	1.41%	2.18%	1.05%	1.28%	1.26%	1.46%		1.44%	1.65%	0.79%
St. Louis Rams	0.12%	0.54%	1.95%	1.23%	1.42%	0.38%	1.88%	2.87%	1.11%	1.75%	1.73%	1.65%	2.22%		1.97%	0.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.16%	0.70%	2.16%	0.87%	1.58%	0.38%	1.69%	1.82%	1.49%	1.47%	1.43%	1.81%	2.25%	1.80%		0.98%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.18%	0.32%	0.10%	0.15%	0.08%	0.27%	0.35%	0.26%	0.19%	0.19%	0.28%	0.33%	0.36%	0.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.89%	0.10%	0.12%	1.68%	0.02%	2.40%	0.16%	3.89%	1.70%	1.95%	0.71%	0.93%	0.42%	0.11%	2.80%
Buffalo Bills	0.37%		0.10%	0.18%	0.39%		0.45%	0.04%	0.52%	0.19%	0.17%	0.06%	0.17%	0.23%	0.02%	0.48%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%	0.11%		0.01%	0.18%		0.19%	0.02%	0.32%	0.09%	0.17%	0.07%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%	0.14%
Cleveland Browns	0.05%	0.10%	0.02%		0.15%	0.01%	0.23%	0.02%	0.27%	0.14%	0.18%	0.10%	0.14%	0.03%	0.03%	0.29%
Denver Broncos	2.26%	0.57%	0.36%	0.65%			2.04%	0.19%	3.63%	1.80%	1.66%	0.58%	0.74%	1.02%	0.03%	2.07%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%												0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	2.80%	1.03%	0.63%	0.83%	2.17%	0.03%		0.06%	3.92%	2.77%	2.77%	1.03%	1.10%	1.55%	0.14%	3.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%	0.08%		0.03%	0.06%		0.03%		0.11%	0.01%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.37%	1.32%	1.04%	1.54%	4.24%	0.05%	4.53%	0.41%		3.45%	4.30%	1.75%	1.48%	2.54%	0.16%	5.18%
Miami Dolphins	2.27%	0.41%	0.50%	0.52%	1.82%	0.06%	2.61%	0.17%	3.09%		1.42%	0.41%	0.78%	1.17%	0.05%	2.92%
New England Patriots	4.08%	0.64%	0.74%	0.94%	2.88%	0.02%	4.50%	0.36%	5.94%	2.28%		0.83%	1.19%	1.82%	0.08%	5.76%
New York Jets	0.43%	0.09%	0.17%	0.16%	0.41%	0.01%	0.58%	0.03%	0.62%	0.23%	0.18%		0.11%	0.22%	0.01%	0.68%
Oakland Raiders	0.32%	0.14%	0.07%	0.15%	0.20%		0.32%	0.02%	0.36%	0.29%	0.29%	0.08%		0.20%		0.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.18%	0.27%	0.02%		0.31%	0.05%	0.48%	0.03%	0.96%	0.53%	0.49%	0.16%	0.32%		0.03%	0.39%
San Diego Chargers	0.06%	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%		0.04%	0.01%	0.04%				0.01%	0.03%		0.02%
Tennessee Titans	4.42%	1.34%	0.88%	1.08%	3.31%	0.04%	4.49%	0.23%	5.78%	3.92%	4.44%	1.36%	1.20%	1.86%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.02%								0.03%				0.02%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.13%	0.11%	0.04%	0.02%	0.12%	0.08%	0.20%	0.12%	0.16%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers	0.03%	0.14%		0.31%	0.59%	0.02%	1.05%	1.33%	0.31%	0.40%	1.25%	0.73%	1.13%	1.07%	1.82%	0.22%
Chicago Bears		0.03%	0.24%		0.10%	0.01%	0.04%	0.09%	0.05%	0.01%	0.32%	0.17%	0.33%	0.35%	0.42%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.16%	0.52%	0.23%		0.02%	0.64%	0.83%	0.23%	0.06%	0.53%	0.51%	0.85%	0.90%	1.32%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%			0.02%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.06%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.43%	1.86%	0.36%	1.36%	0.07%		1.76%	1.20%	0.90%	3.57%	1.73%	3.30%	3.75%	4.98%	0.51%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	0.24%	1.42%	0.22%	0.97%	0.05%	1.03%		0.76%	0.77%	2.27%	1.38%	1.91%	2.27%	3.35%	0.31%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.05%	0.32%	0.12%	0.26%	0.07%	0.73%	0.75%		0.24%	0.73%	0.39%	0.56%	0.70%	0.79%	0.13%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.07%	0.11%	0.11%	0.05%	0.03%	0.18%	0.16%	0.09%		0.08%	0.22%	0.22%	0.16%	0.27%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	0.60%	3.11%	1.19%	1.02%	0.29%	4.18%	4.25%	1.71%	0.54%		2.95%	4.49%	4.94%	7.63%	0.36%
San Francisco 49ers		0.12%	0.92%	0.39%	0.69%	0.12%	1.06%	1.18%	0.53%	0.37%	1.10%		0.86%	1.10%	1.84%	0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%	0.20%	1.41%	0.53%	1.01%	0.21%	1.94%	2.41%	0.76%	0.82%	2.54%	1.32%		2.07%	3.43%	0.42%
St. Louis Rams	0.04%	0.30%	2.08%	0.88%	1.68%	0.24%	3.35%	3.78%	1.36%	1.00%	3.75%	1.99%	3.31%		4.61%	0.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.36%	2.23%	0.94%	2.19%	0.27%	3.51%	4.18%	1.42%	1.30%	4.38%	2.31%	3.26%	3.71%		0.79%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.01%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	0.14%	0.10%		0.07%	0.16%	0.17%	0.14%	0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.19%	0.02%	0.06%	0.76%		1.34%	0.04%	1.72%	0.86%	1.24%	0.25%	0.14%	0.11%	0.01%	1.48%
Buffalo Bills	0.09%		0.03%	0.02%	0.12%		0.17%		0.19%	0.03%	0.10%	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%		0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.02%		0.03%		0.05%	0.04%	0.05%		0.03%			0.07%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%		0.08%	0.01%	0.07%	0.03%	0.04%	0.05%	0.01%		0.01%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	0.89%	0.36%	0.03%	0.10%		0.01%	1.33%	0.12%	0.81%	0.86%	1.30%	0.28%	0.09%	0.23%		1.74%
Indianapolis Colts	1.26%	0.28%	0.17%	0.10%	1.43%			0.04%	2.97%	1.35%	1.74%	0.37%	0.32%	0.44%	0.06%	1.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.01%			0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.84%	0.65%	0.20%	0.27%	1.04%	0.02%	3.17%	0.10%		2.47%	3.63%	0.64%	0.14%	0.64%	0.01%	4.38%
Miami Dolphins	0.89%	0.12%	0.09%	0.13%	0.97%		1.33%	0.03%	2.05%		0.90%	0.15%	0.16%	0.33%	0.04%	1.74%
New England Patriots	2.02%	0.28%	0.30%	0.31%	2.18%	0.02%	2.94%	0.11%	4.91%	1.16%		0.28%	0.44%	0.56%	0.05%	3.93%
New York Jets	0.15%		0.02%	0.01%	0.19%		0.21%		0.34%	0.06%	0.07%		0.01%	0.04%		0.19%
Oakland Raiders	0.07%	0.01%	0.02%				0.22%		0.09%	0.10%	0.12%	0.01%		0.03%		0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.07%	0.02%			0.12%	0.01%	0.17%	0.01%	0.21%	0.09%	0.17%	0.01%	0.02%			0.23%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.01%						0.02%
Tennessee Titans	2.36%	0.42%	0.28%	0.32%	2.57%		1.40%	0.02%	4.74%	2.21%	3.20%	0.58%	0.58%	0.64%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals											0.01%
Atlanta Falcons					0.03%			0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.03%	0.05%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%			0.08%	0.12%	0.02%	0.45%	0.37%	0.10%	0.05%	0.66%	0.35%	0.63%	0.73%	0.43%	0.07%
Chicago Bears			0.07%		0.01%		0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	0.03%	0.12%	0.04%	0.06%	0.10%	0.15%
Dallas Cowboys		0.06%	0.20%	0.06%		0.02%	0.47%	0.27%	0.15%		0.14%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	0.53%	0.01%
Detroit Lions			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%				0.01%			0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.14%	1.07%	0.10%	0.81%			0.65%	0.60%	0.18%	2.71%	0.90%	1.67%	2.70%	2.84%	0.23%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.07%	0.58%	0.05%	0.48%	0.01%	0.40%		0.18%	0.13%	1.35%	0.52%	0.96%	1.18%	1.19%	0.12%
New Orleans Saints			0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.43%	0.29%		0.05%	0.52%	0.14%	0.26%	0.35%	0.15%	0.04%
New York Giants		0.02%	0.04%	0.04%			0.04%	0.05%	0.02%			0.02%	0.07%	0.07%	0.07%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.19%	1.70%	0.38%	0.40%	0.12%	3.19%	2.91%	0.91%	0.17%		1.77%	2.95%	4.21%	4.48%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.06%	0.29%	0.03%	0.16%	0.01%	0.68%	0.53%	0.17%	0.10%	0.83%		0.27%	0.33%	0.77%	0.04%
Seattle Seahawks		0.08%	0.63%	0.18%	0.43%	0.02%	1.04%	1.02%	0.34%	0.14%	1.78%	0.39%		0.66%	2.00%	0.09%
St. Louis Rams		0.16%	1.25%	0.28%	0.63%	0.06%	2.13%	1.67%	0.75%	0.23%	3.20%	0.55%	1.03%		3.51%	0.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.03%	0.44%	0.27%	0.75%	0.10%	2.21%	1.91%	0.20%	0.25%	2.52%	1.24%	2.00%	2.65%		0.16%
Washington Redskins					0.01%		0.12%	0.04%	0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons							0.01%			0.01%			0.02%		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%												0.02%
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%			0.13%	0.05%			0.08%			0.53%					0.38%		0.08%	0.02%			0.84%			0.20%	0.53%	0.53%	0.76%		0.04%
Buffalo Bills						0.01%			0.01%			0.04%					0.04%		0.01%	0.02%			0.02%			0.03%	0.05%	0.06%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers			0.15%	0.02%				0.02%		0.17%			0.21%		0.28%	0.16%		0.22%			0.02%	0.04%		0.01%	0.01%					0.21%
Chicago Bears			0.02%	0.01%						0.01%			0.01%		0.09%						0.01%			0.01%						0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals						0.01%						0.01%											0.03%				0.01%	0.02%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns									0.01%			0.03%								0.01%			0.01%			0.01%	0.01%		0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			0.10%	0.01%				0.01%		0.07%			0.17%		0.22%	0.09%		0.23%			0.02%			0.03%						0.25%
Denver Broncos		0.01%			0.25%	0.09%			0.11%		0.01%	0.45%					0.30%		0.12%	0.04%			0.90%			0.22%	0.41%	0.59%	0.60%		0.02%
Detroit Lions			0.01%										0.01%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.85%	0.12%			0.07%	0.04%		0.57%			0.90%		1.43%	0.85%		1.28%			0.13%	0.08%		0.13%						1.47%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%			0.31%	0.04%			0.20%			0.77%					0.45%		0.16%	0.04%			0.97%			0.35%	0.56%	0.94%	0.99%
Jacksonville Jaguars																							0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.06%			0.52%	0.04%			0.40%			1.28%					0.89%		0.25%	0.06%			1.98%			0.52%	1.01%	1.50%	1.39%		0.07%
Miami Dolphins					0.21%	0.06%			0.13%		0.01%	0.59%					0.37%		0.16%	0.01%			0.87%			0.23%	0.44%	0.65%	0.84%
Minnesota Vikings			0.20%	0.02%			0.01%	0.03%		0.15%			0.33%		0.54%	0.26%		0.41%			0.08%	0.06%		0.03%	0.01%					0.57%
New England Patriots		0.05%			0.52%	0.08%			0.36%		0.02%	1.69%					1.02%		0.45%	0.06%			2.35%			0.54%	1.08%	1.99%	2.07%		0.06%
New Orleans Saints			0.04%	0.01%						0.03%			0.14%		0.13%	0.09%		0.15%			0.02%	0.01%								0.16%
New York Giants			0.03%										0.01%		0.01%			0.02%												0.03%
New York Jets					0.03%				0.03%			0.04%					0.01%		0.01%	0.01%			0.08%			0.03%	0.06%	0.07%	0.08%
Oakland Raiders					0.04%				0.01%			0.01%					0.04%			0.01%			0.02%			0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles			1.01%	0.23%			0.05%	0.07%		1.27%			1.62%	0.02%	2.88%	1.24%		2.09%			0.18%	0.12%		0.11%						2.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.01%			0.01%							0.06%					0.02%		0.01%				0.07%			0.01%	0.06%	0.13%	0.14%		0.02%
San Diego Chargers																							0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			0.13%	0.04%						0.13%			0.21%	0.01%	0.32%	0.09%		0.26%			0.04%	0.04%		0.03%						0.27%
Seattle Seahawks			0.25%	0.04%			0.01%	0.04%		0.30%			0.43%	0.01%	0.58%	0.32%		0.65%			0.15%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%					0.60%
St. Louis Rams			0.68%	0.11%			0.03%	0.09%		0.75%			0.98%	0.01%	1.36%	0.60%		1.02%			0.07%	0.14%		0.15%						1.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.55%	0.07%			0.01%	0.03%		0.57%			0.73%	0.02%	1.33%	0.64%		0.78%			0.12%	0.05%		0.07%						1.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.04%			0.53%	0.10%			0.40%		0.02%	1.19%					1.01%		0.32%	0.07%			2.31%			0.56%	1.13%	1.69%	1.76%		0.02%
Washington Redskins			0.02%										0.02%		0.03%	0.01%		0.02%				0.01%								0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	68.68%	48.72%	28.52%	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	68.74%	48.62%	23.32%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	59.73%	21.79%	10.84%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Rams	100.00%	65.70%	25.30%	10.66%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	75.38%	30.57%	14.73%	7.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tennessee Titans	47.18%	18.97%	9.10%	4.85%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Indianapolis Colts	61.43%	24.16%	8.86%	4.50%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	52.82%	16.97%	6.92%	3.28%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Denver Broncos	38.57%	11.49%	4.61%	2.46%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Carolina Panthers	61.43%	17.74%	5.38%	1.86%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	38.57%	10.02%	3.04%	1.12%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Seattle Seahawks	24.62%	7.23%	2.93%	1.12%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens				52.82%
Denver Broncos			38.57%
Indianapolis Colts		61.43%
Tennessee Titans	47.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		61.43%
Dallas Cowboys	38.57%
Green Bay Packers				75.38%
Seattle Seahawks			24.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens				7.74%	9.23%
Denver Broncos					11.49%
Indianapolis Colts				24.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	12.93%		37.27%			9.53%
New England Patriots	22.92%	27.08%				18.68%
Tennessee Titans				8.37%	10.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers						17.74%
Dallas Cowboys				10.02%
Green Bay Packers				17.17%		13.40%
Philadelphia Eagles		28.55%	29.25%		10.94%
Seattle Seahawks				4.07%		3.16%
St. Louis Rams	43.69%		15.56%		6.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.40%	1.48%	2.38%	1.66%
Denver Broncos	0.82%			2.97%		0.82%
Indianapolis Colts	2.20%				4.64%	2.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.17%	3.67%			11.49%	3.46%
New England Patriots	3.86%		11.88%	29.41%		3.57%
Tennessee Titans		1.81%	1.94%	3.18%	2.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers			2.24%	2.51%	0.63%
Dallas Cowboys			0.92%		0.27%	1.85%
Green Bay Packers	2.70%	2.50%		3.59%		5.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.02%		6.39%		1.74%	31.47%
Seattle Seahawks	0.64%	0.51%		0.64%		1.14%
St. Louis Rams		3.97%	6.29%	13.38%	1.66%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.23%	0.16%		0.38%				1.45%	0.10%	0.96%
Carolina Panthers	0.17%			0.12%		0.07%	0.42%	0.89%				0.19%
Dallas Cowboys	0.10%			0.06%		0.16%	0.24%	0.51%				0.05%
Denver Broncos		0.09%	0.07%		0.26%				1.21%	0.07%	0.76%
Green Bay Packers	0.62%			0.33%		0.65%	1.85%	3.35%				0.67%
Indianapolis Colts		0.37%	0.13%		0.56%				2.10%	0.13%	1.21%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.69%	0.38%		1.48%				5.11%	0.41%	2.77%
New England Patriots		1.78%	1.02%		4.02%				13.16%	0.89%	7.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.85%			1.04%		2.33%	5.58%	10.29%				2.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.10%			0.08%		0.11%	0.20%	0.47%				0.16%
St. Louis Rams	0.80%			0.52%		1.04%	2.66%	4.69%				0.95%
Tennessee Titans		0.36%	0.16%		0.56%				2.27%	0.21%	1.29%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 28.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.43%

Win Prob

70.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

60.37%

Win Prob

71.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.14%

Win Prob

56.12%

Philadelphia Eagles 23.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

42.55%

Win Prob

63.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

64.73%

Win Prob

70.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.13%

Win Prob

43.88%

Kansas City Chiefs 10.84% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

62.40%

Win Prob

60.67%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

52.73%

Win Prob

28.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

47.14%

Win Prob

47.80%

St. Louis Rams 10.66% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

66.50%

Win Prob

71.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.89%

Win Prob

29.83%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.00%

Win Prob

38.01%

Green Bay Packers 7.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.38%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

56.17%

Win Prob

36.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

40.33%

Win Prob

48.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.85%

Win Prob

45.45%

Tennessee Titans 4.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.18%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

55.88%

Win Prob

36.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.95%

Win Prob

47.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.80%

Win Prob

50.44%

Indianapolis Colts 4.50% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

52.37%

Win Prob

28.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.67%

Win Prob

47.40%

Baltimore Ravens 3.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.82%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

54.39%

Win Prob

28.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.39%

Win Prob

42.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

44.21%

Win Prob

43.94%

Denver Broncos 2.46% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

64.43%

Win Prob

44.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

49.19%

Win Prob

53.78%

Carolina Panthers 1.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.65%

Win Prob

21.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.85%

Win Prob

33.33%

Dallas Cowboys 1.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

60.86%

Win Prob

31.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.54%

Win Prob

33.33%

Seattle Seahawks 1.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.62%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

56.29%

Win Prob

27.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

38.91%

Win Prob

40.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

41.96%

Win Prob

34.56%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2003-09-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-42	1432.20	1430.47	38.57%	61.22%	-23.49	0-1
2003-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-38	1408.71	1524.91	44.97%	54.82%	-39.79	0-2
2003-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 20-13	1368.92	1526.56	39.17%	60.63%	+23.01	1-2
2003-09-28	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-37	1391.93	1496.01	25.45%	74.34%	-17.91	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1374.02	1466.11	26.78%	73.01%	-15.87	1-4
2003-10-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 18-26	1358.15	1502.23	41.04%	58.75%	-16.66	1-5
2003-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1341.49	1539.08	33.84%	65.95%	+16.38	2-5
2003-11-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-14	1357.87	1427.48	51.66%	48.13%	+11.97	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-28	1369.84	1423.74	31.31%	68.48%	-16.21	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-44	1353.63	1454.64	25.79%	74.00%	-22.84	3-7
2003-11-23	St. Louis Rams	L 27-30	1330.79	1576.59	27.93%	71.86%	-6.95	3-8
2003-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-28	1323.84	1436.31	24.55%	75.24%	-17.63	3-9
2003-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-50	1306.21	1511.38	16.02%	83.77%	-13.82	3-10
2003-12-14	Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1292.39	1478.46	35.34%	64.45%	-8.79	3-11
2003-12-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-28	1283.60	1507.38	14.63%	85.16%	-8.92	3-12
2003-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 18-17	1274.68	1547.03	24.96%	74.83%	+10.74	4-12
2003-09-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-13	1524.41	1441.20	50.09%	49.70%	+26.69	1-0
2003-09-14	Washington Redskins	L 31-33	1551.10	1493.58	68.93%	30.86%	-13.99	1-1
2003-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-31	1537.11	1620.61	49.66%	50.13%	-32.65	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-23	1504.46	1497.87	39.23%	60.56%	-25.19	1-3
2003-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-39	1479.27	1561.49	49.85%	49.95%	-25.79	1-4
2003-10-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 0-36	1453.48	1513.92	30.51%	69.29%	-26.29	1-5
2003-10-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-45	1427.19	1441.87	59.44%	40.35%	-45.12	1-6
2003-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-23	1382.07	1552.87	37.38%	62.42%	-14.20	1-7
2003-11-09	@ New York Giants	W 27-7	1367.87	1527.09	19.91%	79.88%	+51.25	2-7
2003-11-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1419.12	1492.71	28.92%	70.87%	-7.20	2-8
2003-11-23	Tennessee Titans	L 31-38	1411.92	1651.68	28.64%	71.16%	-10.88	2-9
2003-11-30	@ Houston Texans	L 13-17	1401.04	1354.15	44.88%	54.91%	-12.88	2-10
2003-12-07	Carolina Panthers	W 20-14	1388.16	1497.37	45.97%	53.82%	+18.91	3-10
2003-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-38	1407.07	1618.28	15.56%	84.23%	-12.45	3-11
2003-12-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-28	1394.62	1592.32	16.61%	83.18%	+16.88	4-11
2003-12-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-14	1411.50	1441.16	57.35%	42.44%	+16.12	5-11
2003-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-34	1488.59	1535.23	32.22%	67.58%	-20.17	0-1
2003-09-14	Cleveland Browns	W 33-13	1468.42	1483.17	59.43%	40.36%	+25.91	1-1
2003-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-10	1494.33	1423.73	48.28%	51.52%	+27.66	2-1
2003-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1521.99	1588.76	52.07%	47.72%	-19.76	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 26-18	1502.23	1358.15	58.75%	41.04%	+16.66	3-2
2003-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 26-34	1518.89	1390.07	56.61%	43.18%	-22.97	3-3
2003-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 26-6	1495.92	1596.57	47.20%	52.60%	+33.75	4-3
2003-11-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1529.67	1390.71	77.96%	21.83%	+8.30	5-3
2003-11-09	@ St. Louis Rams	L 22-33	1537.97	1551.27	36.54%	63.25%	-17.40	5-4
2003-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-9	1520.57	1558.42	33.33%	66.46%	-8.29	5-5
2003-11-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-41	1512.28	1540.83	57.51%	42.29%	+10.51	6-5
2003-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 44-6	1522.79	1548.44	57.91%	41.88%	+37.06	7-5
2003-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-13	1559.85	1487.35	70.74%	29.05%	+17.70	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 12-20	1577.55	1420.06	60.61%	39.19%	-24.59	8-6
2003-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 35-0	1552.96	1412.89	58.19%	41.60%	+35.33	9-6
2003-12-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1588.29	1464.35	76.45%	23.35%	+5.81	10-6
2003-09-07	New England Patriots	W 31-0	1489.16	1524.78	56.51%	43.28%	+34.59	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-17	1523.75	1478.64	44.63%	55.17%	+36.27	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1560.02	1542.62	40.73%	59.07%	-18.49	2-1
2003-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-23	1541.53	1495.23	67.54%	32.26%	-30.63	2-2
2003-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-16	1510.90	1398.72	75.21%	24.58%	+8.65	3-2
2003-10-12	@ New York Jets	L 3-30	1519.55	1454.58	47.47%	52.33%	-35.40	3-3
2003-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 24-7	1484.15	1468.91	63.51%	36.28%	+21.48	4-3
2003-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 5-38	1505.63	1650.23	21.29%	78.51%	-17.57	4-4
2003-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-10	1488.06	1525.60	33.37%	66.42%	-9.58	4-5
2003-11-16	Houston Texans	L 10-12	1478.48	1344.69	77.45%	22.35%	-15.71	4-6
2003-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-17	1462.77	1611.90	40.34%	59.45%	-10.03	4-7
2003-11-30	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1452.74	1452.13	38.42%	61.38%	+36.30	5-7
2003-12-07	New York Jets	W 17-6	1489.04	1512.93	58.16%	41.63%	+19.82	6-7
2003-12-14	@ Tennessee Titans	L 26-28	1508.86	1625.36	24.12%	75.67%	-4.90	6-8
2003-12-21	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1503.96	1569.23	52.28%	47.51%	-30.93	6-9
2003-12-27	@ New England Patriots	L 0-31	1473.03	1689.91	15.14%	84.66%	-12.11	6-10
2003-09-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-23	1472.20	1484.38	59.79%	40.00%	+5.75	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-9	1477.95	1640.53	19.60%	80.19%	+19.92	2-0
2003-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-3	1497.87	1504.46	60.56%	39.23%	+25.19	3-0
2003-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 19-13	1523.06	1438.09	72.20%	27.60%	+9.71	4-0
2003-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1532.77	1616.41	27.75%	72.04%	+17.90	5-0
2003-10-19	Tennessee Titans	L 17-37	1550.67	1568.11	59.06%	40.73%	-37.89	5-1
2003-10-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1512.78	1486.99	41.90%	57.90%	+14.38	6-1
2003-11-02	@ Houston Texans	L 10-14	1527.16	1337.72	64.89%	34.90%	-18.61	6-2
2003-11-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1508.55	1623.02	45.22%	54.57%	+13.56	7-2
2003-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1522.11	1456.69	69.89%	29.90%	+7.44	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-24	1529.55	1521.28	39.46%	60.33%	-11.34	8-3
2003-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-25	1518.21	1610.43	48.41%	51.39%	-20.84	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1497.37	1388.16	53.82%	45.97%	-18.91	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1478.46	1292.39	64.45%	35.34%	+8.79	9-5
2003-12-21	Detroit Lions	W 20-14	1487.25	1349.11	77.88%	21.92%	+7.71	10-5
2003-12-28	@ New York Giants	W 37-24	1494.96	1350.59	58.79%	41.00%	+21.22	11-5
2003-09-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-49	1463.07	1519.08	31.05%	68.74%	-28.90	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1434.17	1495.81	30.36%	69.43%	-14.46	0-2
2003-09-29	Green Bay Packers	L 23-38	1419.71	1503.55	49.61%	50.18%	-27.57	0-3
2003-10-05	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1392.14	1548.89	39.29%	60.50%	+15.03	1-3
2003-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1407.17	1428.38	35.49%	64.30%	-13.48	1-4
2003-10-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1393.69	1544.55	20.69%	79.11%	-7.86	1-5
2003-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-16	1385.83	1355.45	65.50%	34.29%	+13.92	2-5
2003-11-02	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1399.75	1390.54	62.71%	37.09%	+19.20	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-12	1418.95	1369.13	45.30%	54.49%	-9.19	3-6
2003-11-16	St. Louis Rams	L 21-23	1409.76	1568.67	38.99%	60.80%	-7.92	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-10	1401.84	1563.43	19.69%	80.10%	+34.47	4-7
2003-11-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-3	1436.31	1323.84	75.24%	24.55%	+17.63	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-34	1453.94	1544.06	27.01%	72.78%	-13.98	5-8
2003-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1439.96	1517.89	50.46%	49.33%	+12.26	6-8
2003-12-21	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1452.22	1416.88	66.14%	33.65%	+8.37	7-8
2003-12-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-31	1460.59	1600.88	21.70%	78.09%	-16.50	7-9
2003-09-07	Denver Broncos	L 10-30	1421.56	1521.49	47.30%	52.49%	-30.35	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1391.21	1562.57	18.82%	80.98%	-4.69	0-2
2003-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1386.52	1528.24	41.37%	58.42%	-15.71	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-14	1370.81	1467.52	26.27%	73.53%	+27.91	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-22	1398.72	1510.90	24.58%	75.21%	-8.65	1-4
2003-10-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-26	1390.07	1518.89	43.18%	56.61%	+22.97	2-4
2003-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1413.04	1552.42	41.70%	58.09%	+14.44	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-17	1427.48	1357.87	48.13%	51.66%	-11.97	3-5
2003-11-09	Houston Texans	W 34-27	1415.51	1356.34	69.13%	30.66%	+11.65	4-5
2003-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-19	1427.16	1678.49	27.30%	72.50%	+23.26	5-5
2003-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1450.42	1388.65	47.01%	52.79%	+20.03	6-5
2003-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1470.45	1451.74	40.91%	58.88%	+16.90	7-5
2003-12-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-31	1487.35	1559.85	29.05%	70.74%	-17.71	7-6
2003-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-38	1469.64	1525.20	53.68%	46.12%	+11.47	8-6
2003-12-21	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-27	1481.11	1627.28	21.13%	78.66%	-12.52	8-7
2003-12-28	Cleveland Browns	L 14-22	1468.59	1377.56	72.89%	26.91%	-29.57	8-8
2003-09-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-9	1498.44	1498.46	61.46%	38.34%	-15.27	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-33	1483.17	1468.42	40.36%	59.43%	-25.91	0-2
2003-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-12	1457.26	1536.38	28.27%	71.52%	+10.26	1-2
2003-09-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1467.52	1370.81	73.53%	26.27%	-27.90	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-13	1439.62	1507.09	29.65%	70.14%	+44.99	2-3
2003-10-12	Oakland Raiders	W 13-7	1484.61	1533.85	54.58%	45.22%	+15.90	3-3
2003-10-19	San Diego Chargers	L 20-26	1500.51	1378.57	76.24%	23.55%	-26.79	3-4
2003-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 3-9	1473.72	1592.77	23.85%	75.94%	-8.40	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-41	1465.32	1667.80	16.23%	83.56%	-10.68	3-6
2003-11-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 44-6	1454.64	1353.63	74.00%	25.79%	+22.83	4-6
2003-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-13	1477.47	1425.85	68.20%	31.59%	-25.88	4-7
2003-11-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-34	1451.59	1530.32	28.32%	71.47%	-21.14	4-8
2003-12-08	St. Louis Rams	L 20-26	1430.45	1606.17	36.72%	63.08%	-12.91	4-9
2003-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1417.54	1590.56	18.67%	81.12%	-4.65	4-10
2003-12-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-35	1412.89	1552.96	41.60%	58.19%	-35.33	4-11
2003-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-14	1377.56	1468.59	26.91%	72.89%	+29.58	5-11
2003-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-27	1441.20	1524.41	49.70%	50.09%	-26.69	0-1
2003-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 35-32	1414.51	1540.03	23.18%	76.61%	+19.04	1-1
2003-09-28	@ New York Jets	W 17-6	1433.55	1487.15	31.35%	68.45%	+32.56	2-1
2003-10-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-7	1466.11	1374.02	73.01%	26.78%	+15.86	3-1
2003-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1481.97	1533.06	54.31%	45.48%	+9.23	4-1
2003-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-7	1491.20	1393.50	52.17%	47.62%	+38.05	5-1
2003-10-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-16	1529.25	1628.17	26.02%	73.77%	-14.95	5-2
2003-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1514.30	1447.43	70.07%	29.73%	+11.30	6-2
2003-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 10-6	1525.60	1488.06	66.42%	33.37%	+9.58	7-2
2003-11-16	@ New England Patriots	L 0-12	1535.18	1617.26	27.93%	71.86%	-13.90	7-3
2003-11-23	Carolina Panthers	W 24-20	1521.28	1529.55	60.33%	39.46%	+11.34	8-3
2003-11-27	Miami Dolphins	L 21-40	1532.62	1570.16	56.24%	43.55%	-35.17	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-36	1497.45	1631.27	22.34%	77.45%	-16.37	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-0	1481.08	1460.58	41.16%	58.64%	+43.71	9-5
2003-12-21	New York Giants	W 19-3	1524.79	1361.84	80.22%	19.57%	+11.24	10-5
2003-12-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-13	1536.03	1498.62	43.54%	56.26%	-15.30	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-10	1521.49	1421.56	52.49%	47.30%	+30.36	1-0
2003-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-13	1551.85	1457.55	51.69%	48.11%	+33.82	2-0
2003-09-22	Oakland Raiders	W 31-10	1585.67	1567.25	63.93%	35.86%	+23.60	3-0
2003-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1609.27	1408.29	83.44%	16.35%	+4.70	4-0
2003-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1613.97	1608.53	39.08%	60.72%	-5.61	4-1
2003-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1608.36	1462.10	78.67%	21.13%	+5.25	5-1
2003-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-28	1613.61	1587.28	41.97%	57.82%	-17.04	5-2
2003-10-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-26	1596.57	1495.92	52.60%	47.20%	-33.75	5-3
2003-11-03	New England Patriots	L 26-30	1562.82	1601.16	56.13%	43.67%	-16.10	5-4
2003-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 37-8	1546.72	1405.36	78.19%	21.60%	+16.71	6-4
2003-11-23	Chicago Bears	L 10-19	1563.43	1401.84	80.10%	19.69%	-34.47	6-5
2003-11-30	@ Oakland Raiders	W 22-8	1528.96	1474.52	45.96%	53.83%	+28.90	7-5
2003-12-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-27	1557.86	1666.42	46.06%	53.73%	+32.70	8-5
2003-12-14	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1590.56	1417.54	81.12%	18.67%	+4.65	9-5
2003-12-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1595.21	1630.73	33.63%	66.16%	+35.51	10-5
2003-12-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1630.72	1615.47	40.43%	59.36%	-30.71	10-6
2003-09-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 42-24	1430.47	1432.20	61.22%	38.57%	+23.49	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1453.96	1503.71	31.83%	67.97%	-22.85	1-1
2003-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-23	1431.11	1510.27	50.29%	49.51%	-22.82	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1408.29	1609.27	16.35%	83.44%	-4.70	1-3
2003-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1403.59	1497.72	26.56%	73.24%	-10.09	1-4
2003-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-38	1393.50	1491.20	47.62%	52.17%	-38.05	1-5
2003-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-24	1355.45	1385.83	34.29%	65.50%	-13.93	1-6
2003-11-02	Oakland Raiders	W 23-13	1341.52	1500.82	38.94%	60.85%	+27.61	2-6
2003-11-09	Chicago Bears	W 12-10	1369.13	1418.95	54.49%	45.30%	+9.19	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-35	1378.32	1527.08	20.89%	78.91%	-13.75	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-24	1364.57	1494.31	22.75%	77.04%	-10.34	3-8
2003-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 22-14	1354.23	1571.85	31.31%	68.48%	+27.79	4-8
2003-12-07	San Diego Chargers	L 7-14	1382.02	1362.01	64.14%	35.65%	-24.35	4-9
2003-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-45	1357.67	1633.71	11.26%	88.53%	-8.56	4-10
2003-12-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-20	1349.11	1487.25	21.92%	77.88%	-7.71	4-11
2003-12-28	St. Louis Rams	W 30-20	1341.40	1639.80	22.26%	77.53%	+35.17	5-11
2003-09-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 25-30	1525.59	1473.93	68.21%	31.59%	-21.88	0-1
2003-09-14	Detroit Lions	W 31-6	1503.71	1453.96	67.97%	31.83%	+22.85	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-20	1526.56	1368.92	60.63%	39.17%	-23.01	1-2
2003-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-23	1503.55	1419.71	50.18%	49.61%	+27.57	2-2
2003-10-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-13	1531.12	1569.01	56.19%	43.60%	+29.36	3-2
2003-10-12	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-40	1560.48	1614.14	53.95%	45.85%	-18.96	3-3
2003-10-19	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-34	1541.52	1540.20	38.51%	61.28%	-17.49	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-27	1524.03	1566.02	32.80%	66.99%	+16.65	4-4
2003-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1540.68	1567.07	57.81%	41.98%	-14.37	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-13	1526.31	1609.46	27.81%	71.99%	+27.32	5-5
2003-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1553.63	1566.65	59.67%	40.12%	+18.22	6-5
2003-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-22	1571.85	1354.23	68.48%	31.31%	-27.79	6-6
2003-12-07	Chicago Bears	W 34-21	1544.06	1453.94	72.78%	27.01%	+13.99	7-6
2003-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 38-21	1558.05	1386.35	62.54%	37.26%	+22.05	8-6
2003-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-7	1580.10	1444.65	57.55%	42.25%	+35.37	9-6
2003-12-28	Denver Broncos	W 31-3	1615.47	1630.72	59.36%	40.43%	+30.71	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-20	1388.85	1523.34	22.28%	77.52%	+11.12	1-0
2003-09-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-31	1399.97	1482.16	27.92%	71.88%	-18.37	1-1
2003-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-42	1381.60	1561.27	36.19%	63.60%	-27.50	1-2
2003-09-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1354.10	1430.76	50.65%	49.15%	+14.11	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-38	1368.21	1556.67	17.36%	82.43%	-11.43	2-3
2003-10-19	New York Jets	L 14-19	1356.78	1489.98	42.56%	57.23%	-13.67	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-30	1343.11	1598.51	12.50%	87.29%	-5.39	2-5
2003-11-02	Carolina Panthers	W 14-10	1337.72	1527.16	34.90%	64.89%	+18.62	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-34	1356.34	1415.51	30.66%	69.13%	-11.65	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 12-10	1344.69	1478.48	22.35%	77.45%	+15.71	4-6
2003-11-23	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1360.40	1631.16	25.13%	74.66%	-6.25	4-7
2003-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1354.15	1401.04	54.91%	44.88%	+12.88	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-27	1367.03	1418.30	31.64%	68.16%	-23.60	5-8
2003-12-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-16	1343.43	1585.39	13.37%	86.42%	-6.93	5-9
2003-12-21	Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1336.50	1630.26	22.72%	77.07%	-5.66	5-10
2003-12-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1330.84	1595.22	25.83%	73.96%	-6.43	5-11
2003-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 9-6	1498.46	1498.44	38.34%	61.46%	+15.27	1-0
2003-09-14	Tennessee Titans	W 33-7	1513.73	1549.13	56.54%	43.25%	+31.65	2-0
2003-09-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-13	1545.38	1442.37	74.22%	25.57%	+11.62	3-0
2003-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 55-21	1557.00	1480.49	49.13%	50.67%	+42.39	4-0
2003-10-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-35	1599.39	1653.26	31.31%	68.48%	+17.02	5-0
2003-10-12	Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1616.41	1532.77	72.04%	27.75%	-17.90	5-1
2003-10-26	Houston Texans	W 30-21	1598.51	1343.11	87.29%	12.50%	+5.39	6-1
2003-11-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1603.90	1603.05	38.45%	61.34%	+21.55	7-1
2003-11-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-28	1625.45	1382.41	71.54%	28.25%	-22.94	7-2
2003-11-16	New York Jets	W 38-31	1602.51	1491.55	75.08%	24.71%	+9.39	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1611.90	1462.77	59.45%	40.34%	+10.03	9-2
2003-11-30	New England Patriots	L 34-38	1621.93	1637.41	59.33%	40.46%	-17.03	9-3
2003-12-07	@ Tennessee Titans	W 29-27	1604.90	1638.74	33.84%	65.95%	+13.38	10-3
2003-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1618.28	1407.07	84.23%	15.56%	+12.45	11-3
2003-12-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-31	1630.73	1595.21	66.16%	33.63%	-35.51	11-4
2003-12-28	@ Houston Texans	W 20-17	1595.22	1330.84	73.96%	25.83%	+6.43	12-4
2003-09-07	@ Carolina Panthers	L 23-24	1484.38	1472.20	40.00%	59.79%	-5.74	0-1
2003-09-14	Buffalo Bills	L 17-38	1478.64	1523.75	55.17%	44.63%	-36.27	0-2
2003-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-23	1442.37	1545.38	25.57%	74.22%	-11.61	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Houston Texans	L 20-24	1430.76	1354.10	49.15%	50.65%	-14.11	0-4
2003-10-05	San Diego Chargers	W 27-21	1416.65	1390.84	64.91%	34.89%	+12.27	1-4
2003-10-12	Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1428.92	1591.09	38.55%	61.25%	-20.71	1-5
2003-10-26	Tennessee Titans	L 17-30	1408.21	1606.00	33.82%	65.97%	-17.50	1-6
2003-11-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-24	1390.71	1529.67	21.83%	77.96%	-8.30	1-7
2003-11-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-23	1382.41	1625.45	28.25%	71.54%	+22.94	2-7
2003-11-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-10	1405.35	1646.58	13.42%	86.37%	-5.10	2-8
2003-11-23	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1400.25	1482.16	27.95%	71.84%	-6.95	2-9
2003-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1393.30	1590.43	33.90%	65.89%	+25.00	3-9
2003-12-07	Houston Texans	W 27-0	1418.30	1367.03	68.16%	31.64%	+23.61	4-9
2003-12-14	@ New England Patriots	L 13-27	1441.91	1670.31	14.30%	85.49%	-7.69	4-10
2003-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 20-19	1434.22	1505.56	51.41%	48.38%	+6.94	5-10
2003-12-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1441.16	1411.50	42.44%	57.35%	-16.12	5-11
2003-09-07	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1517.18	1474.48	67.08%	32.71%	+16.94	1-0
2003-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-20	1534.12	1555.39	58.53%	41.27%	+27.15	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Houston Texans	W 42-14	1561.27	1381.60	63.60%	36.19%	+27.49	3-0
2003-09-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1588.76	1521.99	47.72%	52.07%	+19.77	4-0
2003-10-05	Denver Broncos	W 24-23	1608.53	1613.97	60.72%	39.08%	+5.61	5-0
2003-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 40-34	1614.14	1560.48	45.85%	53.95%	+18.96	6-0
2003-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-10	1633.10	1517.96	54.67%	45.12%	+17.13	7-0
2003-10-26	Buffalo Bills	W 38-5	1650.23	1505.63	78.51%	21.29%	+17.57	8-0
2003-11-09	Cleveland Browns	W 41-20	1667.80	1465.32	83.56%	16.23%	+10.69	9-0
2003-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-24	1678.49	1427.16	72.50%	27.30%	-23.26	9-1
2003-11-23	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1655.23	1479.09	81.39%	18.40%	+4.58	10-1
2003-11-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1659.81	1368.61	76.81%	22.99%	+6.61	11-1
2003-12-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-45	1666.42	1557.86	53.73%	46.06%	-32.71	11-2
2003-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 45-17	1633.71	1357.67	88.53%	11.26%	+8.57	12-2
2003-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-45	1642.28	1505.63	57.71%	42.08%	-41.40	12-3
2003-12-28	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1600.88	1460.59	78.09%	21.70%	+16.50	13-3
2003-09-07	Houston Texans	L 20-21	1523.34	1388.85	77.52%	22.28%	-11.12	0-1
2003-09-14	@ New York Jets	W 21-10	1512.22	1530.35	35.90%	63.89%	+30.40	1-1
2003-09-21	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1542.62	1560.02	59.07%	40.73%	+18.49	2-1
2003-10-05	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1561.11	1535.81	41.83%	57.96%	+29.98	3-1
2003-10-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-10	1591.09	1428.92	61.25%	38.55%	+20.71	4-1
2003-10-19	New England Patriots	L 13-19	1611.80	1569.20	67.07%	32.73%	-23.57	4-2
2003-10-27	San Diego Chargers	W 26-10	1588.23	1405.36	74.00%	25.79%	+14.82	5-2
2003-11-02	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1603.05	1603.90	61.34%	38.45%	-21.55	5-3
2003-11-09	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-31	1581.50	1623.51	32.80%	66.99%	-23.08	5-4
2003-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 9-6	1558.42	1520.57	66.46%	33.33%	+8.29	6-4
2003-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1566.71	1449.25	75.77%	24.02%	+3.45	7-4
2003-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 40-21	1570.16	1532.62	43.55%	56.24%	+35.17	8-4
2003-12-07	@ New England Patriots	L 0-12	1605.33	1654.44	31.91%	67.89%	-15.87	8-5
2003-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-34	1589.46	1647.64	53.30%	46.49%	-20.23	8-6
2003-12-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1569.23	1503.96	47.51%	52.28%	+30.93	9-6
2003-12-28	New York Jets	W 23-21	1600.16	1493.16	74.66%	25.14%	+5.10	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-25	1473.93	1525.59	31.59%	68.21%	+21.88	1-0
2003-09-14	Chicago Bears	W 24-13	1495.81	1434.17	69.43%	30.36%	+14.46	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1510.27	1431.11	49.51%	50.29%	+22.81	3-0
2003-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-7	1533.08	1526.12	62.40%	37.39%	+28.41	4-0
2003-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 39-26	1561.49	1479.27	49.95%	49.85%	+25.79	5-0
2003-10-19	Denver Broncos	W 28-20	1587.28	1613.61	57.82%	41.97%	+17.04	6-0
2003-10-26	New York Giants	L 17-29	1604.32	1474.26	77.07%	22.72%	-38.30	6-1
2003-11-02	Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1566.02	1524.03	66.99%	32.80%	-16.64	6-2
2003-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-42	1549.38	1371.34	63.39%	36.41%	-34.02	6-3
2003-11-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 18-28	1515.36	1458.05	46.37%	53.43%	-21.05	6-4
2003-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1494.31	1364.57	77.04%	22.75%	+10.34	7-4
2003-11-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-48	1504.65	1583.54	28.30%	71.49%	-22.63	7-5
2003-12-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1482.02	1551.45	51.69%	48.11%	+35.87	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1517.89	1439.96	49.33%	50.46%	-12.26	8-6
2003-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-20	1505.63	1642.28	42.08%	57.71%	+41.40	9-6
2003-12-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-18	1547.03	1274.68	74.83%	24.96%	-10.74	9-7
2003-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-31	1524.78	1489.16	43.28%	56.51%	-34.59	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-10	1490.19	1539.91	31.83%	67.96%	+44.67	1-1
2003-09-21	New York Jets	W 23-16	1534.86	1499.95	66.09%	33.71%	+12.81	2-1
2003-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1547.67	1492.75	46.03%	53.77%	-11.44	2-2
2003-10-05	Tennessee Titans	W 38-30	1536.23	1574.39	56.15%	43.64%	+17.72	3-2
2003-10-12	New York Giants	W 17-6	1553.95	1505.83	67.76%	32.03%	+15.25	4-2
2003-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 19-13	1569.20	1611.80	32.73%	67.07%	+23.57	5-2
2003-10-26	Cleveland Browns	W 9-3	1592.77	1473.72	75.94%	23.85%	+8.39	6-2
2003-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-26	1601.16	1562.82	43.67%	56.13%	+16.10	7-2
2003-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 12-0	1617.26	1535.18	71.86%	27.93%	+13.90	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 23-20	1631.16	1360.40	74.66%	25.13%	+6.25	9-2
2003-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-34	1637.41	1621.93	40.46%	59.33%	+17.03	10-2
2003-12-07	Miami Dolphins	W 12-0	1654.44	1605.33	67.89%	31.91%	+15.87	11-2
2003-12-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-13	1670.31	1441.91	85.49%	14.30%	+7.69	12-2
2003-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 21-16	1678.00	1505.07	62.70%	37.09%	+11.91	13-2
2003-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 31-0	1689.91	1473.03	84.66%	15.14%	+12.11	14-2
2003-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-27	1505.11	1501.96	38.76%	61.03%	-22.95	0-1
2003-09-14	Houston Texans	W 31-10	1482.16	1399.97	71.88%	27.92%	+18.38	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 12-27	1500.54	1517.47	36.06%	63.74%	-20.05	1-2
2003-09-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-55	1480.49	1557.00	50.67%	49.13%	-42.40	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-19	1438.09	1523.06	27.60%	72.20%	-9.71	1-4
2003-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 20-13	1428.38	1407.17	64.30%	35.49%	+13.49	2-4
2003-10-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 45-17	1441.87	1427.19	40.35%	59.44%	+45.12	3-4
2003-10-26	Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1486.99	1512.78	57.90%	41.90%	-14.38	3-5
2003-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1472.61	1643.12	18.89%	80.90%	+20.10	4-5
2003-11-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1492.71	1419.12	70.87%	28.92%	+7.19	5-5
2003-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-33	1499.90	1596.84	26.24%	73.55%	-13.59	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1486.31	1445.80	43.97%	55.82%	+16.02	6-6
2003-12-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-14	1502.33	1565.43	52.60%	47.20%	-19.97	6-7
2003-12-14	New York Giants	W 45-7	1482.36	1385.03	73.59%	26.20%	+23.20	7-7
2003-12-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 19-20	1505.56	1434.22	48.38%	51.41%	-6.94	7-8
2003-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-7	1498.62	1536.03	56.26%	43.54%	+15.30	8-8
2003-09-07	St. Louis Rams	W 23-13	1523.77	1504.98	63.98%	35.81%	+16.26	1-0
2003-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 32-35	1540.03	1414.51	76.61%	23.18%	-19.03	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1521.00	1507.56	40.18%	59.62%	+14.81	2-1
2003-10-05	Miami Dolphins	L 10-23	1535.81	1561.11	57.96%	41.83%	-29.98	2-2
2003-10-12	@ New England Patriots	L 6-17	1505.83	1553.95	32.03%	67.76%	-15.26	2-3
2003-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1490.57	1523.83	56.85%	42.95%	-16.31	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 29-17	1474.26	1604.32	22.72%	77.07%	+38.30	3-4
2003-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 31-28	1512.56	1490.91	41.32%	58.47%	+14.53	4-4
2003-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-27	1527.09	1367.87	79.88%	19.91%	-51.25	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-28	1475.84	1581.43	25.29%	74.50%	-15.41	4-6
2003-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-19	1460.43	1582.14	23.58%	76.22%	-8.30	4-7
2003-11-30	Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1452.13	1452.74	61.38%	38.42%	-36.30	4-8
2003-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-20	1415.83	1429.79	59.54%	40.25%	-30.80	4-9
2003-12-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-45	1385.03	1482.36	26.20%	73.59%	-23.19	4-10
2003-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-19	1361.84	1524.79	19.57%	80.22%	-11.25	4-11
2003-12-28	Carolina Panthers	L 24-37	1350.59	1494.96	41.00%	58.79%	-21.22	4-12
2003-09-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1541.98	1481.96	46.76%	53.04%	-11.63	0-1
2003-09-14	Miami Dolphins	L 10-21	1530.35	1512.22	63.89%	35.90%	-30.40	0-2
2003-09-21	@ New England Patriots	L 16-23	1499.95	1534.86	33.71%	66.09%	-12.80	0-3
2003-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-17	1487.15	1433.55	68.45%	31.35%	-32.57	0-4
2003-10-12	Buffalo Bills	W 30-3	1454.58	1519.55	52.33%	47.47%	+35.40	1-4
2003-10-19	@ Houston Texans	W 19-14	1489.98	1356.78	57.23%	42.56%	+13.66	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1503.64	1540.14	33.50%	66.29%	-12.73	2-5
2003-11-02	New York Giants	L 28-31	1490.91	1512.56	58.47%	41.32%	-14.53	2-6
2003-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1476.38	1473.21	38.77%	61.03%	+15.17	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-38	1491.55	1602.51	24.71%	75.08%	-9.39	3-7
2003-11-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-10	1482.16	1400.25	71.84%	27.95%	+6.95	4-7
2003-12-01	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1489.11	1662.57	37.02%	62.77%	+23.82	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-17	1512.93	1489.04	41.63%	58.16%	-19.82	5-8
2003-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-0	1493.11	1460.40	65.80%	33.99%	+11.96	6-8
2003-12-20	New England Patriots	L 16-21	1505.07	1678.00	37.09%	62.70%	-11.91	6-9
2003-12-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-23	1493.16	1600.16	25.14%	74.66%	-5.10	6-10
2003-09-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-25	1576.74	1534.96	44.15%	55.64%	-14.17	0-1
2003-09-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1562.57	1391.21	80.98%	18.82%	+4.68	1-1
2003-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-31	1567.25	1585.67	35.86%	63.93%	-23.59	1-2
2003-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1543.66	1396.07	78.79%	21.00%	+5.23	2-2
2003-10-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1548.89	1392.14	60.50%	39.29%	-15.04	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-13	1533.85	1484.61	45.22%	54.58%	-15.89	2-4
2003-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1517.96	1633.10	45.12%	54.67%	-17.14	2-5
2003-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-23	1500.82	1341.52	60.85%	38.94%	-27.61	2-6
2003-11-09	New York Jets	L 24-27	1473.21	1476.38	61.03%	38.77%	-15.16	2-7
2003-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-18	1458.05	1515.36	53.43%	46.37%	+21.04	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1479.09	1655.23	18.40%	81.39%	-4.57	3-8
2003-11-30	Denver Broncos	L 8-22	1474.52	1528.96	53.83%	45.96%	-28.91	3-9
2003-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-27	1445.61	1434.84	39.81%	59.98%	-25.55	3-10
2003-12-14	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-12	1420.06	1577.55	39.19%	60.61%	+24.59	4-10
2003-12-22	Green Bay Packers	L 7-41	1444.65	1580.10	42.25%	57.55%	-35.36	4-11
2003-12-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1409.29	1348.39	46.88%	52.91%	-17.80	4-12
2003-09-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-17	1573.52	1606.92	56.83%	42.97%	-33.61	0-1
2003-09-14	New England Patriots	L 10-31	1539.91	1490.19	67.96%	31.83%	-44.68	0-2
2003-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1495.23	1541.53	32.26%	67.54%	+30.64	1-2
2003-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 27-25	1525.87	1504.19	64.36%	35.43%	+7.19	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-23	1533.06	1481.97	45.48%	54.31%	-9.23	2-3
2003-10-19	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1523.83	1490.57	42.95%	56.85%	+16.31	3-3
2003-10-26	New York Jets	W 24-17	1540.14	1503.64	66.29%	33.50%	+12.73	4-3
2003-11-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-16	1552.87	1382.07	62.42%	37.38%	+14.20	5-3
2003-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-14	1567.07	1540.68	41.98%	57.81%	+14.36	6-3
2003-11-16	New York Giants	W 28-10	1581.43	1475.84	74.50%	25.29%	+15.41	7-3
2003-11-23	New Orleans Saints	W 33-20	1596.84	1499.90	73.55%	26.24%	+13.59	8-3
2003-11-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 25-16	1610.43	1518.21	51.39%	48.41%	+20.84	9-3
2003-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 36-10	1631.27	1497.45	77.45%	22.34%	+16.37	10-3
2003-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-27	1647.64	1589.46	46.49%	53.30%	+20.23	11-3
2003-12-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1667.87	1513.73	79.41%	20.38%	-19.73	11-4
2003-12-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1648.14	1408.51	71.14%	28.65%	+20.16	12-4
2003-09-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-15	1535.23	1488.59	67.58%	32.22%	+20.16	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-41	1555.39	1534.12	41.27%	58.53%	-27.15	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1528.24	1386.52	58.42%	41.37%	+15.72	2-1
2003-09-28	Tennessee Titans	L 13-30	1543.96	1537.52	62.33%	37.46%	-36.87	2-2
2003-10-05	Cleveland Browns	L 13-33	1507.09	1439.62	70.14%	29.65%	-44.99	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1462.10	1608.36	21.13%	78.67%	-5.26	2-4
2003-10-26	St. Louis Rams	L 21-33	1456.84	1557.69	47.17%	52.62%	-23.45	2-5
2003-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-23	1433.39	1537.98	25.40%	74.40%	-9.65	2-6
2003-11-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-15	1423.74	1369.84	68.48%	31.31%	+16.21	3-6
2003-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-30	1439.95	1552.56	24.53%	75.26%	-14.10	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-6	1425.85	1477.47	31.59%	68.20%	+25.89	4-7
2003-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-24	1451.74	1470.45	58.88%	40.91%	-16.90	4-8
2003-12-07	Oakland Raiders	W 27-7	1434.84	1445.61	59.98%	39.81%	+25.56	5-8
2003-12-14	@ New York Jets	L 0-6	1460.40	1493.11	33.99%	65.80%	-11.96	5-9
2003-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 40-24	1448.44	1364.30	72.10%	27.69%	+15.91	6-9
2003-12-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-13	1464.35	1588.29	23.35%	76.45%	-5.81	6-10
2003-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-27	1474.48	1517.18	32.71%	67.08%	-16.93	0-1
2003-09-14	Denver Broncos	L 13-37	1457.55	1551.85	48.11%	51.69%	-33.82	0-2
2003-09-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1423.73	1494.33	51.52%	48.28%	-27.66	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-34	1396.07	1543.66	21.00%	78.79%	-5.23	0-4
2003-10-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-27	1390.84	1416.65	34.89%	64.91%	-12.27	0-5
2003-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-20	1378.57	1500.51	23.55%	76.24%	+26.79	1-5
2003-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-26	1405.36	1588.23	25.79%	74.00%	-14.82	1-6
2003-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1390.54	1399.75	37.09%	62.71%	-19.20	1-7
2003-11-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-28	1371.34	1549.38	36.41%	63.39%	+34.02	2-7
2003-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 8-37	1405.36	1546.72	21.60%	78.19%	-16.71	2-8
2003-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-34	1388.65	1450.42	52.79%	47.01%	-20.04	2-9
2003-11-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1368.61	1659.81	22.99%	76.81%	-6.60	2-10
2003-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1362.01	1382.02	35.65%	64.14%	+24.34	3-10
2003-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 21-38	1386.35	1558.05	37.26%	62.54%	-22.05	3-11
2003-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-40	1364.30	1448.44	27.69%	72.10%	-15.91	3-12
2003-12-28	Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1348.39	1409.29	52.91%	46.88%	+17.80	4-12
2003-09-07	Chicago Bears	W 49-7	1519.08	1463.07	68.74%	31.05%	+28.90	1-0
2003-09-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-27	1547.98	1488.72	46.65%	53.15%	-11.60	1-1
2003-09-21	Cleveland Browns	L 12-13	1536.38	1457.26	71.52%	28.27%	-10.26	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1526.12	1533.08	37.39%	62.40%	-28.40	1-3
2003-10-05	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1497.72	1403.59	73.24%	26.56%	+10.09	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-20	1507.81	1539.66	34.10%	65.69%	-4.90	2-4
2003-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1502.91	1664.34	38.65%	61.14%	+36.17	3-4
2003-10-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-16	1539.08	1341.49	65.95%	33.84%	-16.39	3-5
2003-11-02	St. Louis Rams	W 30-10	1522.69	1581.14	53.26%	46.53%	+29.87	4-5
2003-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-14	1552.56	1439.95	75.26%	24.53%	+14.09	5-5
2003-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1566.65	1553.63	40.12%	59.67%	-18.21	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-44	1548.44	1522.79	41.88%	57.91%	-37.06	5-7
2003-12-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 50-14	1511.38	1306.21	83.77%	16.02%	+13.82	6-7
2003-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 38-41	1525.20	1469.64	46.12%	53.68%	-11.47	6-8
2003-12-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-28	1513.73	1667.87	20.38%	79.41%	+19.74	7-8
2003-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1533.47	1516.31	63.77%	36.03%	-24.21	7-9
2003-09-07	New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1501.96	1505.11	61.03%	38.76%	+22.95	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-0	1524.91	1408.71	54.82%	44.97%	+39.79	2-0
2003-09-21	St. Louis Rams	W 24-23	1564.70	1500.32	69.77%	30.03%	+4.31	3-0
2003-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-35	1569.01	1531.12	43.60%	56.19%	-29.35	3-1
2003-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-19	1539.66	1507.81	65.69%	34.10%	+4.89	4-1
2003-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1544.55	1393.69	79.11%	20.69%	+7.87	5-1
2003-10-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1552.42	1413.04	58.09%	41.70%	-14.44	5-2
2003-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-16	1537.98	1433.39	74.40%	25.40%	+9.65	6-2
2003-11-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1547.63	1436.14	54.15%	45.64%	-20.55	6-3
2003-11-16	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1527.08	1378.32	78.91%	20.89%	+13.75	7-3
2003-11-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 41-44	1540.83	1512.28	42.29%	57.51%	-10.51	7-4
2003-11-30	Cleveland Browns	W 34-7	1530.32	1451.59	71.47%	28.32%	+21.13	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1551.45	1482.02	48.11%	51.69%	-35.87	8-5
2003-12-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 22-27	1515.58	1619.08	25.52%	74.28%	-8.20	8-6
2003-12-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-10	1507.38	1283.60	85.16%	14.63%	+8.93	9-6
2003-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1516.31	1533.47	36.03%	63.77%	+24.20	10-6
2003-09-07	@ New York Giants	L 13-23	1504.98	1523.77	35.81%	63.98%	-16.26	0-1
2003-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1488.72	1547.98	53.15%	46.65%	+11.60	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-24	1500.32	1564.70	30.03%	69.77%	-4.31	1-2
2003-09-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-13	1496.01	1391.93	74.34%	25.45%	+17.91	2-2
2003-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 36-0	1513.92	1453.48	69.29%	30.51%	+26.28	3-2
2003-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1540.20	1541.52	61.28%	38.51%	+17.49	4-2
2003-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-21	1557.69	1456.84	52.62%	47.17%	+23.45	5-2
2003-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-30	1581.14	1522.69	46.53%	53.26%	-29.87	5-3
2003-11-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-22	1551.27	1537.97	63.25%	36.54%	+17.40	6-3
2003-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-21	1568.67	1409.76	60.80%	38.99%	+7.92	7-3
2003-11-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 30-27	1576.59	1330.79	71.86%	27.93%	+6.95	8-3
2003-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 48-17	1583.54	1504.65	71.49%	28.30%	+22.63	9-3
2003-12-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-20	1606.17	1430.45	63.08%	36.72%	+12.91	10-3
2003-12-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-22	1619.08	1515.58	74.28%	25.52%	+8.20	11-3
2003-12-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1627.28	1481.11	78.66%	21.13%	+12.52	12-3
2003-12-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1639.80	1341.40	77.53%	22.26%	-35.17	12-4
2003-09-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-0	1606.92	1573.52	42.97%	56.83%	+33.61	1-0
2003-09-14	Carolina Panthers	L 9-12	1640.53	1477.95	80.19%	19.60%	-19.92	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-10	1620.61	1537.11	50.13%	49.66%	+32.65	2-1
2003-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 35-38	1653.26	1599.39	68.48%	31.31%	-17.01	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-13	1636.25	1497.00	58.08%	41.72%	+28.09	3-2
2003-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-24	1664.34	1502.91	61.14%	38.65%	-36.17	3-3
2003-10-26	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-0	1628.17	1529.25	73.77%	26.02%	+14.95	4-3
2003-11-02	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1643.12	1472.61	80.90%	18.89%	-20.10	4-4
2003-11-09	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-27	1623.02	1508.55	54.57%	45.22%	-13.56	4-5
2003-11-16	Green Bay Packers	L 13-20	1609.46	1526.31	71.99%	27.81%	-27.32	4-6
2003-11-24	New York Giants	W 19-13	1582.14	1460.43	76.22%	23.58%	+8.29	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-17	1590.43	1393.30	65.89%	33.90%	-25.00	5-7
2003-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1565.43	1502.33	47.20%	52.60%	+19.96	6-7
2003-12-14	Houston Texans	W 16-3	1585.39	1343.43	86.42%	13.37%	+6.93	7-7
2003-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1592.32	1394.62	83.18%	16.61%	-16.87	7-8
2003-12-28	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-33	1575.45	1635.92	30.50%	69.29%	-19.59	7-9
2003-09-07	Oakland Raiders	W 25-20	1534.96	1576.74	55.64%	44.15%	+14.17	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-33	1549.13	1513.73	43.25%	56.54%	-31.66	1-1
2003-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 27-12	1517.47	1500.54	63.74%	36.06%	+20.05	2-1
2003-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1537.52	1543.96	37.46%	62.33%	+36.87	3-1
2003-10-05	@ New England Patriots	L 30-38	1574.39	1536.23	43.64%	56.15%	-17.72	3-2
2003-10-12	Houston Texans	W 38-17	1556.67	1368.21	82.43%	17.36%	+11.44	4-2
2003-10-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-17	1568.11	1550.67	40.73%	59.06%	+37.89	5-2
2003-10-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-17	1606.00	1408.21	65.97%	33.82%	+17.51	6-2
2003-11-09	Miami Dolphins	W 31-7	1623.51	1581.50	66.99%	32.80%	+23.07	7-2
2003-11-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 10-3	1646.58	1405.35	86.37%	13.42%	+5.10	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-31	1651.68	1411.92	71.16%	28.64%	+10.89	9-2
2003-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1662.57	1489.11	62.77%	37.02%	-23.83	9-3
2003-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-29	1638.74	1604.90	65.95%	33.84%	-13.38	9-4
2003-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 28-26	1625.36	1508.86	75.67%	24.12%	+4.90	10-4
2003-12-21	@ Houston Texans	W 27-24	1630.26	1336.50	77.07%	22.72%	+5.66	11-4
2003-12-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-13	1635.92	1575.45	69.29%	30.50%	+19.59	12-4
2003-09-04	New York Jets	W 16-13	1481.96	1541.98	53.04%	46.76%	+11.62	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-31	1493.58	1551.10	30.86%	68.93%	+13.98	2-0
2003-09-21	New York Giants	L 21-24	1507.56	1521.00	59.62%	40.18%	-14.81	2-1
2003-09-28	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1492.75	1547.67	53.77%	46.03%	+11.44	3-1
2003-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-27	1504.19	1525.87	35.43%	64.36%	-7.19	3-2
2003-10-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-35	1497.00	1636.25	41.72%	58.08%	-28.09	3-3
2003-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1468.91	1484.15	36.28%	63.51%	-21.48	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-21	1447.43	1514.30	29.73%	70.07%	-11.29	3-5
2003-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1436.14	1547.63	45.64%	54.15%	+20.55	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1456.69	1522.11	29.90%	69.89%	-7.44	4-6
2003-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1449.25	1566.71	24.02%	75.77%	-3.45	4-7
2003-11-30	New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1445.80	1486.31	55.82%	43.97%	-16.01	4-8
2003-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 20-7	1429.79	1415.83	40.25%	59.54%	+30.79	5-8
2003-12-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-27	1460.58	1481.08	58.64%	41.16%	-43.70	5-9
2003-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1416.88	1452.22	33.65%	66.14%	-8.37	5-10
2003-12-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1408.51	1648.14	28.65%	71.14%	-20.16	5-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2004-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1594.10	1655.51	52.94%	47.06%	-13.13	0-1
2004-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-10	1516.18	1520.73	60.95%	39.05%	+24.38	1-0
2004-01-10	@ St. Louis Rams	W 29-23	1540.56	1604.63	30.15%	69.85%	+24.50	2-0
2004-01-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-3	1565.06	1677.39	24.64%	75.36%	+35.79	3-0
2004-02-01	@ New England Patriots	L 29-32	1600.85	1724.57	32.91%	67.09%	-8.16	3-1
2004-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-29	1520.73	1516.18	39.05%	60.95%	-24.38	0-1
2004-01-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1600.01	1601.65	38.21%	61.79%	-30.46	0-1
2004-01-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1646.18	1540.51	74.64%	25.36%	+8.89	1-0
2004-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1655.07	1668.30	36.65%	63.35%	-9.09	1-1
2004-01-04	Denver Broncos	W 41-10	1601.65	1600.01	61.79%	38.21%	+30.46	1-0
2004-01-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-31	1632.11	1617.38	40.46%	59.54%	+22.56	2-0
2004-01-18	@ New England Patriots	L 14-24	1654.67	1710.45	31.17%	68.83%	-14.11	2-1
2004-01-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-38	1617.38	1632.11	59.54%	40.46%	-22.56	0-1
2004-01-10	Tennessee Titans	W 17-14	1702.02	1668.64	66.00%	34.00%	+8.43	1-0
2004-01-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-14	1710.45	1654.67	68.83%	31.17%	+14.12	2-0
2004-02-01	Carolina Panthers	W 32-29	1724.57	1600.85	67.09%	32.91%	+8.16	3-0
2004-01-11	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1668.30	1655.07	63.35%	36.65%	+9.09	1-0
2004-01-18	Carolina Panthers	L 3-14	1677.39	1565.06	75.36%	24.64%	-35.79	1-1
2004-01-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-33	1540.51	1646.18	25.36%	74.64%	-8.90	0-1
2004-01-10	Carolina Panthers	L 23-29	1604.63	1540.56	69.85%	30.15%	-24.50	0-1
2004-01-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 20-17	1655.51	1594.10	47.06%	52.94%	+13.13	1-0
2004-01-10	@ New England Patriots	L 14-17	1668.64	1702.02	34.00%	66.00%	-8.43	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2003-12-20	16.61%	Atlanta Falcons	1394.62	30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1592.32	28
2	2003-11-02	18.89%	New Orleans Saints	1472.61	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1643.12	14
3	2003-09-14	19.60%	Carolina Panthers	1477.95	12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1640.53	9
4	2003-11-23	19.69%	Chicago Bears	1401.84	19	@ Denver Broncos	1563.43	10
5	2003-11-09	19.91%	Atlanta Falcons	1367.87	27	@ New York Giants	1527.09	7
6	2003-12-21	20.38%	San Francisco 49ers	1513.73	31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1667.87	28
7	2003-12-28	22.26%	@ Detroit Lions	1341.40	30	St. Louis Rams	1639.80	20
8	2003-09-07	22.28%	Houston Texans	1388.85	21	@ Miami Dolphins	1523.34	20
9	2003-11-16	22.35%	Houston Texans	1344.69	12	@ Buffalo Bills	1478.48	10
10	2003-10-26	22.72%	New York Giants	1474.26	29	@ Minnesota Vikings	1604.32	17
11	2003-09-15	23.18%	Dallas Cowboys	1414.51	35	@ New York Giants	1540.03	32
12	2003-10-19	23.55%	San Diego Chargers	1378.57	26	@ Cleveland Browns	1500.51	20
13	2004-01-18 *	24.64%	Carolina Panthers	1565.06	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1677.39	3
14	2003-12-28	24.96%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1274.68	18	Minnesota Vikings	1547.03	17
15	2003-09-28	26.27%	Cincinnati Bengals	1370.81	21	@ Cleveland Browns	1467.52	14
16	2003-12-28	26.91%	Cleveland Browns	1377.56	22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1468.59	14
17	2003-11-16	27.30%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1427.16	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1678.49	19
18	2003-10-12	27.75%	Carolina Panthers	1532.77	23	@ Indianapolis Colts	1616.41	20
19	2003-11-16	27.81%	Green Bay Packers	1526.31	20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1609.46	13
20	2003-11-09	28.25%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1382.41	28	Indianapolis Colts	1625.45	23
21	2003-09-21	28.27%	Cleveland Browns	1457.26	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1536.38	12
22	2003-10-05	29.65%	Cleveland Browns	1439.62	33	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1507.09	13
23	2004-01-10 *	30.15%	Carolina Panthers	1540.56	29	@ St. Louis Rams	1604.63	23
24	2003-09-14	30.86%	Washington Redskins	1493.58	33	@ Atlanta Falcons	1551.10	31
25	2003-10-06	31.31%	Indianapolis Colts	1599.39	38	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1653.26	35

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2003-11-09	51.25	Atlanta Falcons	27	1367.87	19.91%	@ New York Giants	7	1527.09	79.88%
2	2003-10-19	45.12	New Orleans Saints	45	1441.87	40.35%	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1427.19	59.44%
3	2003-10-05	44.99	Cleveland Browns	33	1439.62	29.65%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1507.09	70.14%
4	2003-09-14	44.68	New England Patriots	31	1490.19	31.83%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1539.91	67.96%
5	2003-12-14	43.71	Dallas Cowboys	27	1481.08	41.16%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1460.58	58.64%
6	2003-09-28	42.40	Indianapolis Colts	55	1557.00	49.13%	@ New Orleans Saints	21	1480.49	50.67%
7	2003-12-20	41.40	@ Minnesota Vikings	45	1505.63	42.08%	Kansas City Chiefs	20	1642.28	57.71%
8	2003-09-14	39.79	Seattle Seahawks	38	1524.91	54.82%	@ Arizona Cardinals	0	1408.71	44.97%
9	2003-10-26	38.30	New York Giants	29	1474.26	22.72%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1604.32	77.07%
10	2003-10-19	38.05	Dallas Cowboys	38	1491.20	52.17%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1393.50	47.62%
11	2003-10-19	37.89	Tennessee Titans	37	1568.11	40.73%	@ Carolina Panthers	17	1550.67	59.06%
12	2003-11-30	37.06	@ Baltimore Ravens	44	1522.79	57.91%	San Francisco 49ers	6	1548.44	41.88%
13	2003-09-28	36.87	Tennessee Titans	30	1537.52	37.46%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1543.96	62.33%
14	2003-11-30	36.30	Buffalo Bills	24	1452.74	38.42%	@ New York Giants	7	1452.13	61.38%
15	2003-09-14	36.27	Buffalo Bills	38	1523.75	44.63%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	17	1478.64	55.17%
16	2003-10-19	36.17	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1502.91	38.65%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	1664.34	61.14%
17	2003-12-07	35.87	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1482.02	51.69%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1551.45	48.11%
18	2004-01-18 *	35.79	Carolina Panthers	14	1565.06	24.64%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1677.39	75.36%
19	2003-12-21	35.51	Denver Broncos	31	1595.21	33.63%	@ Indianapolis Colts	17	1630.73	66.16%
20	2003-10-12	35.40	@ New York Jets	30	1454.58	52.33%	Buffalo Bills	3	1519.55	47.47%
21	2003-12-22	35.37	Green Bay Packers	41	1580.10	57.55%	@ Oakland Raiders	7	1444.65	42.25%
22	2003-12-21	35.33	Baltimore Ravens	35	1552.96	58.19%	@ Cleveland Browns	0	1412.89	41.60%
23	2003-11-27	35.17	Miami Dolphins	40	1570.16	43.55%	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1532.62	56.24%
24	2003-12-28	35.17	@ Detroit Lions	30	1341.40	22.26%	St. Louis Rams	20	1639.80	77.53%
25	2003-09-07	34.59	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1489.16	56.51%	New England Patriots	0	1524.78	43.28%