2003 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2001

Runner-Up

Carolina Panthers

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

New England Patriots

4.38 wins above expected

14 wins · 9.62 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Oakland Raiders

3.90 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.90 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	-	348	238	+110	9.62	+4.38
2	Miami Dolphins	10	6	.625	4	311	261	+50	9.07	+0.93
3	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	8	243	279	-36	7.54	-1.54
4	New York Jets	6	10	.375	8	283	299	-16	7.45	-1.45

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	10	6	.625	-	391	281	+110	8.93	+1.07
2	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	2	346	384	-38	6.63	+1.37
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	.375	4	300	327	-27	7.60	-1.60
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	254	322	-68	6.93	-1.93

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	12	4	.750	-	447	336	+111	9.81	+2.19
2	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	12	4	.750	-	435	324	+111	10.11	+1.89
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	7	276	331	-55	6.11	-1.11
4	Houston Texans	5	11	.312	7	255	380	-125	4.73	+0.27

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	13	3	.812	-	484	332	+152	10.75	+2.25
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	381	301	+80	9.28	+0.72
3	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	9	270	379	-109	7.90	-3.90
4	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	9	313	441	-128	5.59	-1.59

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	12	4	.750	-	374	287	+87	9.54	+2.46
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	289	260	+29	7.93	+2.07
3	Washington Redskins	5	11	.312	7	287	372	-85	6.65	-1.65
4	New York Giants	4	12	.250	8	243	387	-144	7.19	-3.19

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	6	.625	-	442	307	+135	8.99	+1.01
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	7	.562	1	416	353	+63	9.03	-0.03
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	3	283	346	-63	6.87	+0.13
4	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	5	270	379	-109	5.60	-0.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	11	5	.688	-	325	304	+21	8.69	+2.31
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	3	340	326	+14	7.80	+0.20
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	9	.438	4	301	264	+37	10.20	-3.20
4	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	6	299	422	-123	6.30	-1.30

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Rams Division	12	4	.750	-	447	328	+119	9.97	+2.03
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	404	327	+77	9.50	+0.50
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	9	.438	5	384	337	+47	8.64	-1.64
4	Arizona Cardinals	4	12	.250	8	225	452	-227	5.03	-1.03

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Tennessee Titans 20

Baltimore Ravens 17

Jan 3

Indianapolis Colts 41

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 4

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 17

Tennessee Titans 14

Jan 10

Indianapolis Colts 38

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Jan 11

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 24

Indianapolis Colts 14

Jan 18

NFC

Wild Card Round

Carolina Panthers 29

Dallas Cowboys 10

Jan 3

Green Bay Packers 33

Seattle Seahawks 27

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Carolina Panthers 29

St. Louis Rams 23

Jan 10

Philadelphia Eagles 20

Green Bay Packers 17

Jan 11

Conference Championship

Carolina Panthers 14

Philadelphia Eagles 3

Jan 18

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 32

Carolina Panthers 29

Feb 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1710	14	9.62	+4.38	99.79%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1671	12	9.54	+2.46	94.84%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1657	12	10.11	+1.89	90.85%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1653	10	8.99	+1.01	78.43%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1619	13	10.75	+2.25	94.30%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1610	12	9.97	+2.03	92.04%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1609	10	9.07	+0.93	77.78%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1604	12	9.81	+2.19	93.62%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1603	10	9.28	+0.72	74.23%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1600	10	8.93	+1.07	79.54%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1548	7	10.20	-3.20	7.10%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1542	10	9.50	+0.50	70.67%	2	6	8	10	11	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1539	9	9.03	-0.03	59.64%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1524	10	7.93	+2.07	91.86%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1515	11	8.69	+2.31	93.45%	0	6	7	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1513	8	7.80	+0.20	64.78%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1510	7	8.64	-1.64	27.24%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1484	6	7.45	-1.45	31.12%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1458	6	7.54	-1.54	29.05%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1456	6	7.60	-1.60	27.79%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1447	7	6.87	+0.13	63.92%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1443	8	6.63	+1.37	84.31%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1425	5	6.11	-1.11	37.65%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1423	5	6.30	-1.30	33.97%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1404	5	6.93	-1.93	21.42%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1385	5	6.65	-1.65	28.12%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1382	4	7.90	-3.90	3.53%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1378	5	5.60	-0.60	49.05%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1364	4	5.59	-1.59	28.79%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1322	5	4.73	+0.27	68.15%	0	2	3	5	6	8	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1318	4	7.19	-3.19	6.79%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1283	4	5.03	-1.03	39.93%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	-
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	-
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	-
New York Jets	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	-

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	-	-
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	-	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	-	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	-	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	-	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	-	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.39%	1.56%	1.56%	0.78%	1.37%	0.78%	0.39%	6.84%
7–13	1.56%	3.52%	4.49%	4.49%	3.52%	1.95%	0.39%	19.92%
14–20	1.56%	4.49%	6.25%	7.62%	1.95%	1.17%	1.17%	24.22%
21–27	0.78%	4.49%	7.62%	7.42%	3.32%	1.17%	0.59%	25.39%
28–34	1.37%	3.52%	1.95%	3.32%	1.95%	1.17%	0.20%	13.48%
35–41	0.78%	1.95%	1.17%	1.17%	1.17%	0.78%	0.20%	7.23%
42+	0.39%	0.39%	1.17%	0.59%	0.20%	0.20%	—	2.93%
Total	6.84%	19.92%	24.22%	25.39%	13.48%	7.23%	2.93%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.83	20.83	+0.00
SD	10.33	10.33	15.24
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 256

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.06	28.25	-14.19
SD	7.33	11.46	15.10
CV	0.52	0.41	—
Max	27	50	+7
Min	0	13	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	26.38	-7.69
SD	9.94	11.31	16.16
CV	0.53	0.43	—
Max	31	45	+20
Min	0	7	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.44	17.56	+6.88
SD	11.34	11.94	16.39
CV	0.46	0.68	—
Max	44	41	+38
Min	6	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	17.44	-2.25
SD	11.28	10.50	18.90
CV	0.74	0.60	—
Max	38	38	+31
Min	0	0	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	19.00	+1.31
SD	6.35	7.76	9.01
CV	0.31	0.41	—
Max	37	37	+20
Min	10	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	21.62	-3.94
SD	7.24	12.21	16.10
CV	0.41	0.56	—
Max	28	49	+25
Min	3	3	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	31.25%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	24.00	-2.38
SD	10.02	6.11	9.52
CV	0.46	0.25	—
Max	41	38	+8
Min	10	14	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.88	20.12	-4.25
SD	11.28	11.31	17.65
CV	0.71	0.56	—
Max	44	41	+38
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.06	16.25	+1.81
SD	10.98	12.14	16.46
CV	0.61	0.75	—
Max	38	40	+31
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	18.81	+5.00
SD	11.44	8.01	16.24
CV	0.48	0.43	—
Max	45	31	+29
Min	3	8	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.88	23.69	-6.81
SD	9.11	9.56	14.32
CV	0.54	0.40	—
Max	42	45	+18
Min	6	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	19.19	+8.44
SD	9.24	10.36	14.22
CV	0.33	0.54	—
Max	41	40	+34
Min	13	3	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.94	23.75	-7.81
SD	7.33	9.57	11.02
CV	0.46	0.40	—
Max	27	42	+4
Min	0	10	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.94	21.00	+6.94
SD	11.26	10.12	13.10
CV	0.40	0.48	—
Max	55	38	+34
Min	9	6	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	56.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	20.69	-3.44
SD	6.88	8.94	11.33
CV	0.40	0.43	—
Max	28	38	+27
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.25	20.75	+9.50
SD	9.66	12.35	16.70
CV	0.32	0.60	—
Max	45	45	+33
Min	17	3	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	25.00%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	16.31	+3.12
SD	9.27	9.09	12.09
CV	0.48	0.56	—
Max	40	34	+19
Min	0	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	12.50%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	22.06	+3.94
SD	9.24	11.64	16.10
CV	0.36	0.53	—
Max	45	48	+28
Min	10	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	14.88	+6.88
SD	10.57	11.40	12.84
CV	0.49	0.77	—
Max	38	34	+31
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	25.00%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	20.38	+0.88
SD	10.99	11.74	17.72
CV	0.52	0.58	—
Max	45	55	+38
Min	7	7	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	24.19	-9.00
SD	10.09	8.82	12.56
CV	0.66	0.36	—
Max	32	45	+12
Min	3	13	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	18.69	-1.00
SD	8.54	9.44	9.65
CV	0.48	0.51	—
Max	31	38	+27
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.88	23.69	-6.81
SD	8.49	7.27	11.31
CV	0.50	0.31	—
Max	34	41	+10
Min	7	12	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	17.94	+5.44
SD	9.46	7.58	12.57
CV	0.40	0.42	—
Max	36	31	+26
Min	0	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.75	20.44	-1.69
SD	9.76	10.91	13.87
CV	0.52	0.53	—
Max	40	41	+20
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.56	27.56	-8.00
SD	9.51	9.17	12.02
CV	0.49	0.33	—
Max	42	40	+14
Min	7	7	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	21.06	+2.94
SD	13.58	11.36	20.54
CV	0.57	0.54	—
Max	50	44	+42
Min	6	7	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.25	20.44	+4.81
SD	8.77	11.52	16.95
CV	0.35	0.56	—
Max	41	44	+38
Min	7	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	56.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.94	20.50	+7.44
SD	9.33	7.62	14.80
CV	0.33	0.37	—
Max	48	30	+36
Min	10	0	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.81	16.50	+2.31
SD	9.06	11.55	12.82
CV	0.48	0.70	—
Max	35	38	+22
Min	7	0	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.19	20.25	+6.94
SD	9.00	9.69	13.31
CV	0.33	0.48	—
Max	38	38	+24
Min	7	3	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	23.25	-5.31
SD	8.36	7.01	11.44
CV	0.47	0.30	—
Max	33	35	+13
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.63	+0.3
Allowed	0.39	-0.4
Differential	0.82	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	14	9.62	+4.38
2	Philadelphia Eagles	12	9.54	+2.46
3	Carolina Panthers	11	8.69	+2.31
4	Kansas City Chiefs	13	10.75	+2.25
5	Indianapolis Colts	12	9.81	+2.19

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	4	7.90	-3.90
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	10.20	-3.20
3	New York Giants	4	7.19	-3.19
4	Cleveland Browns	5	6.93	-1.93
5	Washington Redskins	5	6.65	-1.65

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	12	Oct 5 – Dec 27	1 in 326
2	Philadelphia Eagles	9	Oct 19 – Dec 15	1 in 132
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 7 – Nov 9	1 in 81
4	Carolina Panthers	5	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 68
5	Dallas Cowboys	5	Sep 15 – Oct 19	1 in 60

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	8	Nov 9 – Dec 28	1 in 157
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 109
3	Minnesota Vikings	4	Oct 26 – Nov 16	1 in 77
4	Oakland Raiders	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 50
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	Nov 2 – Nov 16	1 in 39

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	46.53%	28.84%	16.67%	7.96%
Miami Dolphins	32.28%	31.66%	22.31%	13.75%
Buffalo Bills	11.00%	20.62%	30.98%	37.40%
New York Jets	10.19%	18.88%	30.04%	40.89%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	52.19%	25.43%	14.46%	7.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.68%	30.78%	25.94%	20.60%
Cleveland Browns	13.83%	23.50%	30.89%	31.78%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.30%	20.29%	28.71%	39.70%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tennessee Titans	53.04%	39.59%	6.46%	0.91%
Indianapolis Colts	44.18%	46.29%	8.34%	1.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.29%	10.74%	56.88%	30.09%
Houston Texans	0.49%	3.39%	28.31%	67.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	63.01%	26.27%	9.08%	1.65%
Denver Broncos	26.31%	42.24%	24.65%	6.80%
Oakland Raiders	9.44%	25.71%	46.08%	18.77%
San Diego Chargers	1.25%	5.79%	20.18%	72.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	58.71%	23.68%	12.13%	5.48%
Dallas Cowboys	20.61%	32.93%	27.49%	18.98%
New York Giants	12.00%	24.46%	32.30%	31.25%
Washington Redskins	8.69%	18.93%	28.08%	44.29%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	43.40%	34.15%	16.38%	6.07%
Minnesota Vikings	43.07%	34.72%	16.44%	5.78%
Chicago Bears	10.24%	21.11%	40.14%	28.51%
Detroit Lions	3.29%	10.03%	27.04%	59.64%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	61.14%	25.14%	10.51%	3.21%
Carolina Panthers	22.94%	36.60%	26.70%	13.76%
New Orleans Saints	12.30%	26.30%	37.05%	24.35%
Atlanta Falcons	3.62%	11.96%	25.74%	58.68%

Team	1	2	3	4
St. Louis Rams	45.03%	31.67%	20.41%	2.88%
Seattle Seahawks	33.41%	35.34%	27.04%	4.21%
San Francisco 49ers	20.84%	30.04%	41.02%	8.10%
Arizona Cardinals	0.72%	2.94%	11.53%	84.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	27.03%	18.74%	13.70%	10.24%	7.94%	6.12%	4.85%	3.50%	2.70%	1.93%	1.31%	0.89%	0.54%	0.32%	0.14%	0.07%
Tennessee Titans	17.11%	15.48%	13.26%	11.23%	9.68%	8.55%	7.16%	5.59%	3.84%	2.76%	2.03%	1.38%	0.98%	0.52%	0.31%	0.13%
Indianapolis Colts	13.51%	13.16%	12.26%	11.35%	10.34%	9.51%	8.38%	6.61%	4.59%	3.37%	2.52%	1.90%	1.19%	0.73%	0.41%	0.18%
New England Patriots	11.62%	12.62%	12.22%	10.80%	9.60%	8.66%	7.64%	6.50%	5.56%	4.57%	3.42%	2.54%	2.07%	1.31%	0.64%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	9.00%	9.13%	9.16%	9.78%	10.40%	9.86%	8.93%	7.68%	6.91%	5.74%	4.40%	3.38%	2.46%	1.72%	1.05%	0.41%
Baltimore Ravens	6.39%	8.24%	10.04%	11.13%	9.77%	8.79%	8.29%	7.94%	6.53%	5.59%	4.96%	4.07%	3.21%	2.49%	1.78%	0.78%
Miami Dolphins	7.26%	8.84%	9.42%	9.17%	9.46%	8.99%	8.52%	7.82%	7.08%	6.09%	5.10%	4.12%	3.50%	2.55%	1.45%	0.63%
Oakland Raiders	2.43%	3.20%	3.98%	5.04%	6.23%	7.40%	7.93%	8.43%	9.60%	9.89%	9.03%	7.94%	6.55%	5.60%	4.35%	2.40%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.58%	2.75%	4.01%	5.29%	6.05%	6.97%	7.77%	8.92%	8.98%	8.51%	8.76%	8.06%	7.24%	6.69%	5.44%	2.96%
Buffalo Bills	1.40%	2.54%	3.36%	4.26%	5.30%	6.07%	6.92%	7.57%	8.72%	9.39%	9.12%	9.03%	9.38%	8.12%	5.60%	3.22%
New York Jets	1.34%	2.37%	3.34%	3.89%	4.84%	5.86%	6.62%	7.34%	8.52%	9.08%	8.81%	9.18%	9.63%	8.68%	6.58%	3.92%
Cleveland Browns	0.53%	1.20%	2.25%	3.13%	4.02%	4.73%	5.86%	7.20%	8.08%	8.99%	9.82%	10.07%	9.99%	10.34%	8.48%	5.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.43%	0.94%	1.70%	2.64%	3.29%	3.97%	4.98%	6.47%	7.03%	7.74%	9.10%	9.91%	10.39%	11.22%	11.66%	8.54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.44%	0.75%	1.12%	1.62%	2.34%	3.19%	4.23%	5.74%	7.78%	10.26%	12.26%	12.35%	12.20%	12.32%	13.23%
San Diego Chargers	0.15%	0.29%	0.44%	0.73%	1.11%	1.61%	2.11%	2.83%	4.04%	5.29%	6.54%	8.39%	11.16%	15.01%	19.69%	20.60%
Houston Texans	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.21%	0.35%	0.59%	0.85%	1.38%	2.09%	3.27%	4.83%	6.86%	9.36%	12.51%	20.13%	37.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21.04%	16.90%	13.31%	10.65%	8.58%	7.02%	5.69%	4.56%	3.59%	2.72%	2.15%	1.54%	1.07%	0.70%	0.36%	0.11%
St. Louis Rams	17.85%	14.22%	11.55%	10.48%	9.18%	7.69%	6.64%	5.73%	4.75%	3.90%	3.00%	2.12%	1.31%	0.84%	0.49%	0.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.03%	13.11%	12.51%	11.01%	9.19%	7.91%	6.87%	6.06%	4.96%	4.25%	3.45%	2.72%	2.18%	1.46%	0.89%	0.40%
Seattle Seahawks	11.85%	11.00%	10.25%	10.02%	9.70%	8.86%	7.97%	7.00%	6.15%	5.33%	4.24%	3.13%	2.01%	1.30%	0.78%	0.41%
Minnesota Vikings	7.79%	9.14%	10.28%	10.13%	9.23%	8.68%	8.49%	7.85%	6.60%	5.48%	4.80%	4.16%	2.93%	2.17%	1.44%	0.83%
Green Bay Packers	8.74%	9.24%	9.79%	9.47%	9.07%	8.64%	8.11%	7.63%	6.68%	5.49%	5.01%	4.27%	3.09%	2.23%	1.59%	0.95%
Carolina Panthers	5.62%	6.76%	7.36%	7.90%	8.62%	9.06%	8.81%	8.27%	7.71%	7.01%	6.20%	5.16%	4.54%	3.38%	2.31%	1.30%
San Francisco 49ers	5.96%	6.57%	6.98%	7.65%	8.30%	8.28%	8.27%	8.24%	8.42%	8.25%	7.38%	6.01%	3.94%	2.77%	1.84%	1.14%
Dallas Cowboys	2.52%	3.78%	5.13%	5.89%	6.68%	7.43%	8.38%	8.66%	8.34%	8.43%	8.20%	7.41%	6.66%	5.52%	4.25%	2.72%
New Orleans Saints	2.36%	3.41%	4.03%	5.09%	6.13%	6.90%	7.36%	7.85%	8.94%	9.12%	8.65%	8.11%	7.72%	6.40%	5.01%	2.93%
New York Giants	1.08%	1.94%	2.79%	3.51%	4.35%	5.50%	6.29%	7.15%	7.91%	8.86%	9.33%	9.77%	10.22%	8.76%	7.53%	5.00%
Chicago Bears	0.80%	1.41%	2.20%	2.82%	3.67%	4.42%	5.42%	6.24%	7.18%	8.52%	9.87%	11.15%	10.21%	9.92%	9.03%	7.14%
Washington Redskins	0.71%	1.34%	1.88%	2.56%	3.19%	4.05%	4.74%	5.67%	6.68%	7.48%	8.47%	9.54%	10.84%	11.30%	11.57%	9.98%
Atlanta Falcons	0.45%	0.74%	1.17%	1.58%	2.28%	3.04%	3.55%	4.42%	5.76%	6.94%	8.10%	9.60%	12.56%	13.63%	14.20%	11.99%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.29%	0.53%	0.83%	1.22%	1.62%	2.32%	3.08%	4.03%	4.98%	6.86%	9.12%	11.24%	15.07%	17.86%	20.86%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.14%	0.25%	0.41%	0.60%	0.88%	1.10%	1.59%	2.29%	3.24%	4.30%	6.20%	9.49%	14.56%	20.86%	34.02%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	16.58%	12.23%	9.72%	8.72%	6.86%	6.46%	5.10%	4.91%	3.96%	3.72%	3.02%	2.95%	2.48%	2.22%	1.82%	1.58%	1.40%	1.29%	1.02%	0.84%	0.66%	0.60%	0.47%	0.37%	0.29%	0.25%	0.17%	0.12%	0.08%	0.06%	0.04%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10.49%	9.96%	8.21%	8.19%	6.84%	6.78%	5.55%	5.31%	4.66%	4.26%	3.84%	3.43%	3.09%	2.76%	2.48%	2.10%	1.90%	1.73%	1.51%	1.28%	1.07%	0.99%	0.86%	0.68%	0.55%	0.46%	0.33%	0.27%	0.20%	0.13%	0.07%	0.02%
Tennessee Titans	10.11%	8.35%	8.18%	7.14%	6.78%	6.12%	5.82%	5.38%	4.84%	4.67%	4.05%	4.07%	3.46%	3.22%	2.71%	2.78%	1.87%	1.94%	1.42%	1.53%	1.13%	1.00%	0.74%	0.68%	0.53%	0.47%	0.31%	0.25%	0.19%	0.14%	0.06%	0.04%
St. Louis Rams	8.52%	8.58%	7.30%	7.12%	6.09%	5.96%	5.44%	5.30%	4.76%	4.47%	3.98%	3.87%	3.52%	3.36%	2.96%	2.66%	2.40%	2.29%	2.06%	1.73%	1.48%	1.33%	1.14%	0.96%	0.70%	0.62%	0.45%	0.34%	0.29%	0.17%	0.12%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	7.27%	7.06%	6.93%	6.51%	6.33%	5.88%	5.81%	5.49%	5.11%	4.99%	4.58%	4.50%	3.95%	3.79%	3.07%	3.38%	2.36%	2.34%	1.69%	1.81%	1.38%	1.24%	0.97%	0.95%	0.71%	0.58%	0.44%	0.32%	0.26%	0.18%	0.09%	0.04%
New England Patriots	6.24%	6.12%	6.41%	6.15%	6.24%	5.80%	5.54%	5.17%	4.83%	4.68%	4.34%	4.26%	3.96%	3.73%	3.39%	3.06%	2.92%	2.58%	2.34%	2.16%	1.80%	1.61%	1.44%	1.18%	1.03%	0.92%	0.67%	0.57%	0.35%	0.28%	0.14%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.87%	6.56%	6.31%	6.44%	6.15%	6.22%	5.53%	5.34%	4.88%	4.64%	4.34%	3.90%	3.63%	3.39%	3.31%	3.09%	2.70%	2.47%	2.22%	2.01%	1.88%	1.69%	1.46%	1.31%	1.15%	0.98%	0.77%	0.62%	0.46%	0.37%	0.22%	0.09%
Seattle Seahawks	5.20%	5.98%	5.55%	5.80%	5.19%	5.52%	5.07%	5.13%	5.00%	4.89%	4.38%	4.45%	4.15%	3.97%	3.60%	3.26%	3.17%	2.99%	2.74%	2.40%	2.19%	1.89%	1.65%	1.43%	1.15%	0.91%	0.73%	0.56%	0.45%	0.27%	0.24%	0.08%
Denver Broncos	4.63%	4.65%	4.89%	4.76%	4.99%	4.67%	5.03%	4.91%	5.16%	4.77%	4.64%	4.75%	4.45%	4.36%	3.81%	3.73%	3.51%	3.26%	2.89%	2.67%	2.31%	2.12%	1.84%	1.60%	1.31%	1.16%	0.96%	0.76%	0.59%	0.45%	0.25%	0.12%
Minnesota Vikings	3.50%	3.94%	4.52%	4.61%	4.80%	5.17%	4.92%	5.02%	4.75%	4.84%	4.34%	4.49%	4.06%	4.39%	3.87%	4.10%	3.31%	3.29%	2.88%	2.87%	2.65%	2.36%	2.07%	1.96%	1.57%	1.41%	1.26%	0.94%	0.83%	0.58%	0.44%	0.24%
Green Bay Packers	4.00%	4.10%	4.80%	4.35%	4.91%	4.79%	4.87%	4.61%	4.72%	4.46%	4.47%	4.34%	4.26%	3.93%	3.78%	3.87%	3.36%	3.35%	2.91%	2.94%	2.55%	2.57%	2.08%	2.14%	1.62%	1.55%	1.29%	1.04%	0.85%	0.72%	0.53%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	3.62%	4.10%	4.41%	4.52%	4.79%	4.62%	4.73%	4.60%	4.81%	4.48%	4.50%	4.42%	4.35%	4.16%	3.90%	3.76%	3.65%	3.36%	3.13%	2.98%	2.55%	2.46%	2.22%	2.03%	1.77%	1.61%	1.34%	1.13%	0.77%	0.61%	0.39%	0.22%
Baltimore Ravens	3.33%	3.58%	4.28%	4.21%	4.84%	4.74%	5.08%	5.25%	4.49%	5.08%	4.52%	4.42%	4.08%	4.12%	3.93%	3.95%	3.24%	3.37%	2.94%	2.93%	2.63%	2.51%	2.13%	2.01%	1.73%	1.64%	1.35%	1.16%	0.94%	0.79%	0.47%	0.27%
Carolina Panthers	2.37%	2.97%	3.20%	3.60%	3.65%	3.91%	3.97%	4.19%	4.20%	4.42%	4.35%	4.77%	4.32%	4.61%	3.95%	4.28%	3.85%	3.98%	3.54%	3.41%	3.22%	3.05%	2.67%	2.46%	2.34%	2.09%	1.86%	1.48%	1.25%	0.93%	0.66%	0.44%
San Francisco 49ers	2.27%	2.97%	3.14%	3.45%	3.65%	3.69%	3.88%	4.03%	4.25%	4.21%	4.29%	4.23%	4.41%	4.21%	4.17%	4.02%	4.25%	4.27%	3.99%	3.88%	3.54%	3.46%	3.00%	2.80%	2.27%	1.92%	1.58%	1.30%	1.07%	0.82%	0.61%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	0.89%	1.35%	1.66%	2.04%	2.33%	2.69%	2.81%	3.20%	3.25%	3.50%	3.69%	3.83%	4.08%	4.10%	4.39%	4.47%	4.27%	4.14%	4.40%	4.28%	4.29%	4.00%	3.87%	3.56%	3.60%	3.15%	3.02%	2.61%	2.27%	1.91%	1.47%	0.89%
Oakland Raiders	1.04%	1.34%	1.71%	1.75%	2.16%	2.06%	2.69%	2.65%	3.15%	3.14%	3.63%	3.67%	4.05%	3.89%	4.14%	4.10%	4.67%	4.60%	4.74%	4.66%	4.35%	4.50%	4.01%	3.95%	3.42%	3.31%	3.02%	2.73%	2.46%	2.00%	1.46%	0.96%
New Orleans Saints	0.83%	1.24%	1.56%	1.85%	1.99%	2.08%	2.59%	2.66%	3.13%	3.12%	3.39%	3.54%	3.76%	3.88%	4.01%	3.92%	4.53%	4.54%	4.57%	4.38%	4.28%	4.42%	4.16%	3.96%	3.89%	3.74%	3.27%	3.04%	2.66%	2.23%	1.68%	1.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.69%	0.87%	1.23%	1.54%	1.89%	2.06%	2.38%	2.63%	2.77%	3.20%	3.43%	3.57%	3.50%	4.04%	4.17%	4.67%	4.07%	4.42%	4.15%	4.71%	4.37%	4.56%	3.96%	4.20%	3.81%	3.80%	3.41%	3.39%	2.86%	2.61%	1.79%	1.25%
Buffalo Bills	0.54%	0.82%	1.22%	1.31%	1.69%	1.75%	2.23%	2.18%	2.66%	2.67%	3.03%	3.09%	3.55%	3.46%	3.79%	3.80%	4.41%	4.35%	4.46%	4.69%	4.46%	4.72%	4.59%	4.44%	4.43%	4.62%	4.09%	3.84%	3.07%	2.71%	1.96%	1.36%
New York Jets	0.57%	0.77%	1.12%	1.30%	1.61%	1.71%	2.00%	2.12%	2.44%	2.39%	2.99%	3.02%	3.41%	3.31%	3.77%	3.52%	4.33%	4.19%	4.59%	4.34%	4.49%	4.29%	4.99%	4.35%	4.73%	4.38%	4.41%	4.14%	3.52%	3.15%	2.37%	1.66%
New York Giants	0.32%	0.56%	0.82%	0.96%	1.31%	1.40%	1.76%	1.74%	2.17%	2.21%	2.91%	2.66%	3.23%	3.07%	3.83%	3.52%	4.15%	3.99%	4.47%	4.38%	4.88%	4.60%	5.00%	4.91%	5.06%	4.94%	4.48%	4.49%	3.86%	3.68%	2.76%	1.89%
Cleveland Browns	0.19%	0.32%	0.51%	0.68%	0.97%	1.16%	1.43%	1.55%	1.90%	2.00%	2.29%	2.34%	2.64%	3.06%	3.45%	3.72%	3.70%	4.15%	4.30%	4.78%	4.79%	4.96%	4.89%	5.35%	4.98%	5.28%	5.11%	5.15%	4.58%	4.15%	3.28%	2.37%
Chicago Bears	0.24%	0.42%	0.57%	0.74%	0.88%	1.16%	1.28%	1.45%	1.73%	1.98%	2.07%	2.38%	2.56%	2.91%	3.16%	3.31%	3.51%	3.82%	4.15%	4.39%	4.84%	5.03%	5.11%	5.55%	5.33%	5.16%	5.27%	4.91%	4.95%	4.25%	3.92%	2.95%
Washington Redskins	0.21%	0.35%	0.53%	0.69%	0.87%	0.97%	1.15%	1.28%	1.56%	1.69%	2.08%	2.02%	2.31%	2.41%	2.95%	2.87%	3.42%	3.32%	3.89%	3.74%	4.50%	4.18%	4.85%	4.89%	5.33%	5.38%	5.52%	5.93%	5.58%	5.96%	5.19%	4.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	0.27%	0.42%	0.52%	0.74%	0.90%	1.15%	1.35%	1.45%	1.79%	1.95%	1.98%	2.31%	2.56%	3.04%	3.28%	3.27%	3.55%	3.79%	4.12%	4.40%	4.64%	4.71%	5.14%	5.25%	5.47%	5.43%	5.84%	5.73%	5.74%	4.87%	4.17%
Atlanta Falcons	0.11%	0.21%	0.28%	0.40%	0.51%	0.64%	0.73%	0.82%	1.09%	1.18%	1.47%	1.50%	1.79%	1.94%	2.21%	2.38%	2.90%	3.02%	3.56%	3.44%	4.08%	4.26%	5.01%	5.13%	5.88%	6.14%	6.48%	6.92%	6.83%	7.07%	6.10%	5.94%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.07%	0.10%	0.21%	0.25%	0.37%	0.38%	0.58%	0.61%	0.74%	0.85%	1.20%	1.21%	1.58%	1.68%	2.00%	2.13%	2.77%	2.99%	3.52%	3.93%	4.45%	5.11%	5.20%	6.21%	5.77%	6.52%	6.05%	6.56%	6.56%	6.72%	7.05%	6.62%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.06%	0.10%	0.14%	0.19%	0.29%	0.29%	0.44%	0.53%	0.67%	0.76%	0.79%	1.05%	1.24%	1.49%	1.68%	1.80%	2.10%	2.50%	2.74%	3.37%	3.52%	4.39%	4.60%	5.63%	5.93%	7.40%	7.59%	8.87%	9.10%	10.59%	10.12%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.09%	0.12%	0.15%	0.23%	0.23%	0.34%	0.40%	0.54%	0.56%	0.78%	0.81%	1.05%	1.16%	1.40%	1.42%	2.03%	2.05%	2.49%	2.64%	3.18%	3.44%	4.21%	4.32%	5.24%	5.91%	6.81%	7.69%	8.61%	10.16%	10.22%	11.67%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.04%	0.05%	0.07%	0.11%	0.12%	0.16%	0.22%	0.30%	0.30%	0.43%	0.46%	0.54%	0.61%	0.82%	0.85%	1.29%	1.22%	1.69%	1.67%	2.14%	2.35%	3.33%	3.39%	4.68%	4.86%	6.83%	7.53%	9.80%	11.01%	14.91%	18.20%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.09%	0.10%	0.14%	0.20%	0.28%	0.30%	0.42%	0.44%	0.63%	0.73%	0.97%	1.04%	1.44%	1.69%	2.11%	2.53%	2.98%	3.48%	4.25%	4.85%	5.88%	6.77%	9.23%	11.05%	16.04%	22.18%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	27.03%	18.33%	11.45%	6.19%	11.82%	7.97%	17.21%
Tennessee Titans	17.11%	15.45%	12.54%	7.94%	12.13%	9.69%	25.13%
Indianapolis Colts	13.51%	12.78%	11.06%	6.83%	14.04%	11.16%	30.63%
New England Patriots	11.62%	13.13%	13.49%	8.29%	8.85%	9.00%	35.62%
Denver Broncos	9.00%	8.15%	5.81%	3.35%	16.04%	12.88%	44.77%
Miami Dolphins	7.26%	9.12%	9.90%	6.01%	9.59%	9.82%	48.31%
Baltimore Ravens	6.39%	8.87%	13.32%	23.61%	2.67%	4.31%	40.83%
Oakland Raiders	2.43%	2.85%	2.45%	1.71%	7.90%	8.75%	73.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.58%	3.02%	5.55%	12.54%	2.61%	4.43%	70.28%
Buffalo Bills	1.40%	2.63%	3.77%	3.21%	4.61%	6.12%	78.27%
New York Jets	1.34%	2.46%	3.57%	2.83%	4.25%	6.01%	79.55%
Cleveland Browns	0.53%	1.35%	3.29%	8.65%	1.54%	2.91%	81.72%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.43%	1.02%	2.52%	7.33%	1.22%	2.49%	84.99%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.46%	0.76%	0.88%	1.41%	2.33%	93.97%
San Diego Chargers	0.15%	0.30%	0.40%	0.39%	1.04%	1.62%	96.09%
Houston Texans	0.03%	0.08%	0.13%	0.25%	0.26%	0.52%	98.72%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21.04%	17.49%	13.41%	9.20%	8.81%	7.41%	22.65%
St. Louis Rams	17.85%	13.19%	8.69%	5.29%	14.73%	9.74%	30.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.03%	14.01%	15.35%	16.32%	4.69%	5.56%	31.04%
Seattle Seahawks	11.85%	9.85%	7.22%	4.49%	15.31%	11.20%	40.07%
Green Bay Packers	8.74%	9.72%	11.66%	13.27%	6.36%	6.90%	43.34%
Minnesota Vikings	7.79%	9.47%	12.16%	13.65%	6.56%	7.22%	43.15%
San Francisco 49ers	5.96%	6.00%	5.16%	3.73%	11.08%	9.96%	58.11%
Carolina Panthers	5.62%	6.50%	5.97%	4.85%	10.27%	10.67%	56.11%
Dallas Cowboys	2.52%	4.03%	5.97%	8.09%	4.79%	6.74%	67.86%
New Orleans Saints	2.36%	3.36%	3.46%	3.12%	6.67%	7.75%	73.28%
New York Giants	1.08%	2.11%	3.42%	5.39%	2.99%	4.71%	80.31%
Chicago Bears	0.80%	1.51%	2.90%	5.03%	2.25%	3.59%	83.92%
Washington Redskins	0.71%	1.47%	2.43%	4.07%	2.14%	3.48%	85.70%
Atlanta Falcons	0.45%	0.82%	1.16%	1.19%	2.12%	3.02%	91.24%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.33%	0.82%	2.04%	0.63%	1.22%	94.86%
Arizona Cardinals	0.08%	0.14%	0.22%	0.28%	0.60%	0.84%	97.84%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+23.14%

Fortress

61.57%38.43%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 81.87 Elo pts.

23 Elo

0.043 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.63 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.54+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

12.1

Wide Open

124816

Champion Preseason Odds

13%

New England Patriots, 1st of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

31.4%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%50%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.49 · As Expected: 1.49 to 2.04 · Elevated: 2.04 to 2.78 · High Variance: 2.78 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.06 · Close: 5.06 to 6.85 · Off Target: 6.85 to 8.93 · Well Off Target: 8.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.04 · As Expected: 3.04 to 5.06 · More Than Expected: 5.06 to 8.1 · Far More Than Expected: 8.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.91 wins

As Expected

01.865

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.66

Pinpoint

05.9515

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

99.79%

New England Patriots

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

3.53%

Oakland Raiders

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 32

As Expected

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 12

Fewer Than Expected

04.012

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.82

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

92%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

23%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

29%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Predictable

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.06

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.24

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

34%

As Expected

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.04 · Within Noise: 0.04 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.17 · Well Above Noise: 0.17 and up.

Probability calibration

0.92

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.87

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.032

Well Within Noise

00.0870.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	52.43%	52.43%	33.65%	20.76%	13.26%
Philadelphia Eagles	57.66%	57.66%	37.03%	22.94%	12.32%
Tennessee Titans	58.55%	58.55%	34.43%	19.25%	11.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.79%	66.79%	36.98%	18.62%	9.89%
Green Bay Packers	44.50%	44.50%	26.91%	15.81%	8.17%
St. Louis Rams	52.56%	52.56%	30.44%	16.43%	7.65%
Indianapolis Colts	48.77%	48.77%	24.71%	12.02%	6.37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	59.27%	59.27%	29.15%	13.27%	5.14%
Miami Dolphins	35.32%	34.93%	17.37%	8.32%	4.35%
Baltimore Ravens	43.91%	42.45%	19.02%	8.34%	4.33%
Denver Broncos	38.08%	35.57%	17.59%	8.19%	4.23%
Seattle Seahawks	38.79%	38.79%	18.32%	8.35%	3.22%
Minnesota Vikings	39.59%	38.08%	17.00%	7.57%	2.88%
Carolina Panthers	31.77%	25.35%	10.53%	4.14%	1.50%
San Francisco 49ers	29.93%	24.32%	10.26%	4.20%	1.46%
Dallas Cowboys	25.59%	18.67%	7.70%	3.26%	1.24%
New Orleans Saints	21.00%	14.22%	5.61%	2.15%	0.78%
New York Jets	16.66%	9.63%	3.16%	1.03%	0.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.12%	14.27%	3.92%	1.10%	0.40%
Buffalo Bills	17.70%	9.66%	2.94%	0.88%	0.32%
Chicago Bears	13.77%	7.68%	2.43%	0.75%	0.21%
Oakland Raiders	20.81%	9.60%	2.25%	0.52%	0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	13.56%	6.58%	1.64%	0.42%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns	16.39%	7.15%	1.55%	0.36%	0.12%
Washington Redskins	12.12%	5.86%	1.59%	0.39%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	7.48%	3.58%	1.04%	0.30%	0.07%
New York Giants	16.50%	6.91%	1.44%	0.31%	0.06%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.38%	2.10%	0.49%	0.12%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	4.70%	1.99%	0.45%	0.11%	0.02%
San Diego Chargers	3.46%	1.19%	0.25%	0.04%	0.01%
Houston Texans	1.16%	0.33%	0.06%	0.01%	<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	1.94%	0.56%	0.09%	0.02%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		76.7%2.23%	72.9%1.05%	76.1%1.39%	61.4%6.18%	90.5%0.15%	58.5%5.64%	78.2%0.70%	54.8%4.83%	57.9%4.30%	41.9%4.16%	72.2%2.00%	85.1%3.40%	71.2%2.42%	83.4%0.51%	50.6%4.96%
Buffalo Bills	23.3%2.23%		41.2%0.59%	51.9%0.78%	33.4%1.63%	66.0%0.05%	30.4%2.20%	57.1%0.24%	26.9%1.78%	31.2%1.40%	17.1%2.04%	44.2%0.51%	63.4%0.83%	42.9%1.11%	70.5%0.15%	22.6%2.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	27.1%1.05%	58.8%0.59%		54.2%0.25%	35.6%1.80%	80.6%0.03%	36.8%1.64%	69.5%0.19%	31.3%1.62%	34.2%1.26%	21.1%1.38%	51.6%0.60%	65.7%1.03%	48.4%0.47%	63.8%0.15%	28.7%1.50%
Cleveland Browns	23.9%1.39%	48.1%0.78%	45.8%0.25%		30.7%2.12%	67.9%0.06%	29.8%2.02%	55.7%0.24%	24.1%1.95%	29.5%1.51%	17.1%1.63%	44.5%0.70%	65.2%1.10%	40.6%0.57%	63.9%0.19%	22.9%1.88%
Denver Broncos	38.6%6.18%	66.6%1.63%	64.4%1.80%	69.3%2.12%		86.5%0.10%	46.2%3.74%	74.5%0.46%	45.5%4.49%	44.2%3.33%	29.7%4.15%	61.5%1.54%	80.2%1.00%	61.0%3.35%	78.0%0.17%	37.3%4.02%
Houston Texans	9.5%0.15%	34.0%0.05%	19.4%0.03%	32.1%0.06%	13.5%0.10%		16.9%0.08%	33.3%<0.01%	17.7%0.14%	17.1%0.11%	6.6%0.14%	22.6%0.05%	52.5%0.06%	20.9%0.07%	58.3%0.01%	13.7%0.12%
Indianapolis Colts	41.5%5.64%	69.6%2.20%	63.2%1.64%	70.2%2.02%	53.8%3.74%	83.1%0.08%		75.8%0.45%	45.8%3.94%	49.7%4.41%	33.4%5.03%	67.8%2.03%	81.4%2.17%	63.9%3.08%	80.1%0.35%	42.2%6.30%
Jacksonville Jaguars	21.8%0.70%	42.9%0.24%	30.5%0.19%	44.3%0.24%	25.5%0.46%	66.7%<0.01%	24.2%0.45%		21.3%0.54%	25.0%0.49%	12.3%0.71%	46.7%0.22%	66.7%0.21%	32.3%0.35%	63.6%0.03%	18.3%0.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	45.2%4.83%	73.1%1.78%	68.7%1.62%	75.9%1.95%	54.5%4.49%	82.3%0.14%	54.2%3.94%	78.7%0.54%		53.7%3.46%	37.5%3.62%	72.3%1.68%	81.4%2.10%	68.3%2.99%	81.7%0.34%	44.9%3.94%
Miami Dolphins	42.1%4.30%	68.8%1.40%	65.8%1.26%	70.5%1.51%	55.8%3.33%	82.9%0.11%	50.3%4.41%	75.0%0.49%	46.3%3.46%		35.7%4.75%	69.3%1.38%	82.4%1.85%	64.3%2.38%	82.4%0.32%	40.9%4.37%
New England Patriots	58.1%4.16%	82.9%2.04%	78.9%1.38%	82.9%1.63%	70.3%4.15%	93.4%0.14%	66.6%5.03%	87.7%0.71%	62.5%3.62%	64.3%4.75%		80.4%1.85%	89.2%2.34%	78.0%2.55%	88.4%0.39%	59.0%4.91%
New York Jets	27.8%2.00%	55.8%0.51%	48.4%0.60%	55.5%0.70%	38.5%1.54%	77.4%0.05%	32.2%2.03%	53.3%0.22%	27.7%1.68%	30.7%1.38%	19.6%1.85%		66.8%0.73%	49.9%1.07%	65.9%0.13%	25.3%2.16%
Oakland Raiders	14.9%3.40%	36.6%0.83%	34.3%1.03%	34.8%1.10%	19.8%1.00%	47.5%0.06%	18.6%2.17%	33.3%0.21%	18.6%2.10%	17.6%1.85%	10.8%2.34%	33.2%0.73%		30.5%1.68%	50.0%0.08%	14.0%2.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	28.8%2.42%	57.1%1.11%	51.6%0.47%	59.4%0.57%	39.0%3.35%	79.1%0.07%	36.1%3.08%	67.7%0.35%	31.7%2.99%	35.7%2.38%	22.0%2.55%	50.1%1.07%	69.5%1.68%		73.3%0.24%	29.3%2.79%
San Diego Chargers	16.6%0.51%	29.5%0.15%	36.2%0.15%	36.1%0.19%	22.0%0.17%	41.7%0.01%	19.9%0.35%	36.4%0.03%	18.3%0.34%	17.6%0.32%	11.6%0.39%	34.1%0.13%	50.0%0.08%	26.7%0.24%		12.0%0.38%
Tennessee Titans	49.4%4.96%	77.4%2.19%	71.3%1.50%	77.1%1.88%	62.7%4.02%	86.3%0.12%	57.8%6.30%	81.7%0.55%	55.1%3.94%	59.1%4.37%	41.0%4.91%	74.7%2.16%	86.0%2.24%	70.7%2.79%	88.0%0.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		28.6%0.04%	23.9%0.11%	36.4%0.09%	18.1%0.13%	8.3%0.02%	7.4%0.23%	19.2%0.22%	19.2%0.10%	33.7%0.09%	7.0%0.24%	19.8%0.08%	18.3%0.12%	13.4%0.16%	16.0%0.23%	34.3%0.07%
Atlanta Falcons	71.4%0.04%		36.8%0.33%	38.4%0.29%	31.1%0.50%	45.7%0.09%	18.4%0.83%	28.5%0.80%	35.1%0.22%	61.8%0.36%	15.4%1.04%	40.6%0.48%	37.4%0.66%	25.2%0.75%	28.7%0.84%	52.4%0.25%
Carolina Panthers	76.1%0.11%	63.2%0.33%		54.7%1.14%	44.2%2.40%	60.3%0.37%	25.1%3.44%	39.6%3.68%	51.5%1.08%	72.5%1.51%	23.4%4.46%	49.6%2.25%	47.9%2.76%	36.5%3.00%	43.3%4.18%	63.3%1.06%
Chicago Bears	63.6%0.09%	61.6%0.29%	45.3%1.14%		42.3%0.84%	59.0%0.08%	25.1%1.13%	35.9%1.18%	43.7%0.72%	69.1%0.52%	19.8%1.31%	44.5%1.31%	40.3%1.72%	33.9%1.70%	36.5%1.35%	58.5%0.39%
Dallas Cowboys	81.9%0.13%	68.9%0.50%	55.8%2.40%	57.7%0.84%		66.9%0.28%	32.0%2.46%	46.0%2.52%	55.7%1.57%	77.5%0.79%	28.5%3.21%	58.7%2.02%	53.2%2.68%	39.9%2.70%	42.8%3.00%	69.9%0.48%
Detroit Lions	91.7%0.02%	54.3%0.09%	39.7%0.37%	41.0%0.08%	33.1%0.28%		16.4%0.34%	28.0%0.35%	37.7%0.26%	62.0%0.18%	17.2%0.45%	39.6%0.46%	34.5%0.63%	27.9%0.57%	26.7%0.46%	58.0%0.14%
Green Bay Packers	92.6%0.23%	81.6%0.83%	74.9%3.44%	74.9%1.13%	68.0%2.46%	83.6%0.34%		64.9%4.56%	75.7%2.25%	87.9%1.55%	44.8%3.56%	73.6%3.61%	70.7%4.75%	60.5%4.66%	65.2%3.76%	80.2%1.05%
Minnesota Vikings	80.8%0.22%	71.5%0.80%	60.4%3.68%	64.1%1.18%	54.0%2.52%	72.0%0.35%	35.1%4.56%		62.8%2.45%	80.6%1.59%	29.4%3.58%	59.4%3.89%	54.9%4.99%	46.3%4.82%	50.0%3.82%	70.9%1.15%
New Orleans Saints	80.8%0.10%	64.9%0.22%	48.5%1.08%	56.3%0.72%	44.3%1.57%	62.3%0.26%	24.3%2.25%	37.2%2.45%		71.4%0.96%	22.3%2.98%	49.5%1.49%	46.7%1.76%	34.8%1.96%	40.7%2.49%	60.7%0.70%
New York Giants	66.3%0.09%	38.2%0.36%	27.5%1.51%	30.9%0.52%	22.5%0.79%	38.0%0.18%	12.1%1.55%	19.4%1.59%	28.6%0.96%		11.5%1.88%	28.3%1.34%	26.0%1.73%	19.4%1.77%	22.3%1.94%	36.5%0.30%
Philadelphia Eagles	93.0%0.24%	84.6%1.04%	76.6%4.46%	80.2%1.31%	71.5%3.21%	82.8%0.45%	55.2%3.56%	70.6%3.58%	77.7%2.98%	88.5%1.88%		77.1%3.93%	74.3%4.96%	64.9%4.74%	70.2%4.13%	84.5%1.44%
San Francisco 49ers	80.2%0.08%	59.4%0.48%	50.4%2.25%	55.5%1.31%	41.3%2.02%	60.4%0.46%	26.4%3.61%	40.6%3.89%	50.5%1.49%	71.7%1.34%	22.9%3.93%		46.1%2.27%	37.8%2.60%	38.8%3.22%	63.3%0.98%
Seattle Seahawks	81.7%0.12%	62.6%0.66%	52.1%2.76%	59.7%1.72%	46.8%2.68%	65.5%0.63%	29.3%4.75%	45.1%4.99%	53.3%1.76%	74.0%1.73%	25.7%4.96%	53.9%2.27%		40.0%3.89%	42.5%4.01%	64.2%1.29%
St. Louis Rams	86.6%0.16%	74.8%0.75%	63.5%3.00%	66.1%1.70%	60.1%2.70%	72.1%0.57%	39.5%4.66%	53.7%4.82%	65.2%1.96%	80.6%1.77%	35.1%4.74%	62.2%2.60%	60.0%3.89%		52.7%3.86%	76.6%1.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	84.0%0.23%	71.3%0.84%	56.7%4.18%	63.5%1.35%	57.2%3.00%	73.3%0.46%	34.8%3.76%	50.0%3.82%	59.3%2.49%	77.7%1.94%	29.8%4.13%	61.2%3.22%	57.5%4.01%	47.3%3.86%		73.3%1.52%
Washington Redskins	65.7%0.07%	47.6%0.25%	36.7%1.06%	41.5%0.39%	30.1%0.48%	42.0%0.14%	19.8%1.05%	29.1%1.15%	39.3%0.70%	63.5%0.30%	15.5%1.44%	36.7%0.98%	35.8%1.29%	23.4%1.28%	26.7%1.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		69.4%1.15%	71.0%0.14%	74.8%0.16%	46.8%4.13%	79.5%0.04%	45.3%5.99%	73.9%0.20%	43.3%9.57%	45.0%3.91%	33.3%6.58%	64.7%1.13%	77.4%1.14%	69.7%0.52%	73.9%0.14%	39.2%7.66%
Buffalo Bills	30.6%1.15%		59.4%0.13%	59.8%0.18%	29.3%0.96%	100.0%<0.01%	30.2%1.46%	47.3%0.06%	26.8%1.86%	31.2%0.49%	18.4%0.85%	46.1%0.10%	61.0%0.24%	52.8%0.35%	62.2%0.04%	24.6%1.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.0%0.14%	40.6%0.13%		60.0%0.01%	26.2%0.60%	25.0%<0.01%	23.4%0.92%	58.1%0.03%	23.0%1.57%	27.3%0.60%	17.2%0.98%	47.6%0.18%	54.9%0.19%	39.4%0.03%	61.9%0.02%	19.9%1.15%
Cleveland Browns	25.2%0.16%	40.2%0.18%	40.0%0.01%		25.9%0.66%	57.1%<0.01%	21.3%0.98%	51.4%0.04%	19.7%1.68%	22.0%0.66%	13.6%1.03%	35.5%0.20%	52.8%0.16%	48.8%0.04%	70.0%0.02%	17.1%1.31%
Denver Broncos	53.2%4.13%	70.7%0.96%	73.8%0.60%	74.1%0.66%		80.6%0.03%	49.3%4.34%	73.2%0.21%	46.6%7.56%	49.9%3.46%	37.0%5.21%	65.6%0.90%	74.5%0.61%	70.4%1.32%	79.1%0.04%	41.1%5.54%
Houston Texans	20.5%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	19.4%0.03%		9.4%0.03%		14.9%0.07%	13.5%0.04%	12.0%0.05%	23.5%0.02%	60.0%0.01%	40.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	54.7%5.99%	69.8%1.46%	76.6%0.92%	78.7%0.98%	50.7%4.34%	90.6%0.03%		73.8%0.13%	45.7%8.75%	50.5%5.28%	37.4%8.14%	69.8%1.42%	77.2%1.29%	72.1%1.97%	79.2%0.15%	42.8%7.93%
Jacksonville Jaguars	26.1%0.20%	52.7%0.06%	41.9%0.03%	48.6%0.04%	26.8%0.21%		26.2%0.13%		19.8%0.48%	17.6%0.21%	12.2%0.35%	31.4%0.05%	46.2%0.07%	46.2%0.07%	40.0%0.01%	16.4%0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	56.7%9.57%	73.2%1.86%	77.0%1.57%	80.3%1.68%	53.4%7.56%	85.1%0.07%	54.3%8.75%	80.2%0.48%		55.9%6.89%	40.4%10.68%	71.0%2.07%	78.7%1.59%	74.8%3.23%	85.9%0.16%	46.6%10.63%
Miami Dolphins	55.0%3.91%	68.8%0.49%	72.7%0.60%	78.0%0.66%	50.1%3.46%	86.5%0.04%	49.5%5.28%	82.4%0.21%	44.1%6.89%		38.9%4.07%	69.1%0.49%	75.4%0.92%	71.1%1.37%	76.8%0.10%	41.5%6.44%
New England Patriots	66.7%6.58%	81.6%0.85%	82.8%0.98%	86.4%1.03%	63.0%5.21%	88.0%0.05%	62.6%8.14%	87.8%0.35%	59.6%10.68%	61.1%4.07%		79.0%0.77%	85.3%1.37%	81.6%2.18%	84.6%0.21%	55.8%9.96%
New York Jets	35.3%1.13%	53.9%0.10%	52.4%0.18%	64.5%0.20%	34.4%0.90%	76.5%0.02%	30.2%1.42%	68.6%0.05%	29.0%2.07%	30.9%0.49%	21.0%0.77%		65.2%0.21%	49.8%0.30%	64.3%0.03%	27.1%1.76%
Oakland Raiders	22.6%1.14%	39.0%0.24%	45.1%0.19%	47.2%0.16%	25.5%0.61%	40.0%0.01%	22.8%1.29%	53.8%0.07%	21.3%1.59%	24.6%0.92%	14.7%1.37%	34.8%0.21%		40.8%0.36%	44.4%<0.01%	17.7%1.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	30.3%0.52%	47.2%0.35%	60.6%0.03%	51.2%0.04%	29.6%1.32%	60.0%0.01%	27.9%1.97%	53.8%0.07%	25.2%3.23%	28.9%1.37%	18.4%2.18%	50.2%0.30%	59.2%0.36%		62.8%0.04%	23.0%2.49%
San Diego Chargers	26.1%0.14%	37.8%0.04%	38.1%0.02%	30.0%0.02%	20.9%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	20.8%0.15%	60.0%0.01%	14.1%0.16%	23.2%0.10%	15.4%0.21%	35.7%0.03%	55.6%<0.01%	37.2%0.04%		14.6%0.21%
Tennessee Titans	60.8%7.66%	75.4%1.79%	80.1%1.15%	82.9%1.31%	58.9%5.54%	100.0%0.02%	57.2%7.93%	83.6%0.21%	53.4%10.63%	58.5%6.44%	44.2%9.96%	72.9%1.76%	82.3%1.45%	77.0%2.49%	85.4%0.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		33.3%<0.01%	20.0%0.04%	42.9%0.01%	6.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	11.6%0.07%	23.7%0.06%	17.9%0.03%	30.0%0.01%	9.3%0.09%	19.0%0.02%	18.2%0.04%	12.5%0.05%	20.2%0.09%	12.5%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	66.7%<0.01%		34.4%0.10%	48.9%0.09%	38.5%0.19%	55.6%0.02%	19.9%0.45%	29.2%0.34%	41.2%0.05%	58.8%0.08%	19.5%0.63%	34.8%0.23%	29.4%0.40%	26.8%0.52%	28.8%0.42%	61.4%0.06%
Carolina Panthers	80.0%0.04%	65.6%0.10%		60.2%0.52%	49.8%1.30%	67.9%0.11%	33.4%3.28%	46.5%2.77%	53.5%0.47%	74.3%0.47%	30.9%4.51%	48.4%1.62%	44.1%2.62%	35.7%3.61%	43.4%3.50%	65.1%0.43%
Chicago Bears	57.1%0.01%	51.1%0.09%	39.8%0.52%		37.3%0.41%	66.7%<0.01%	24.9%0.36%	37.5%0.28%	44.9%0.23%	60.7%0.15%	20.6%1.40%	36.6%0.50%	31.0%0.92%	25.8%1.25%	33.9%1.46%	55.4%0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	93.3%0.03%	61.5%0.19%	50.2%1.30%	62.7%0.41%		74.3%0.07%	31.4%2.41%	46.7%1.90%	52.1%0.73%	81.2%0.10%	27.3%1.63%	48.6%1.17%	42.8%2.00%	33.7%2.96%	42.4%3.65%	67.7%0.10%
Detroit Lions	100.0%<0.01%	44.4%0.02%	32.1%0.11%	33.3%<0.01%	25.7%0.07%		24.0%0.07%	20.3%0.07%	30.1%0.08%	43.3%0.03%	13.7%0.37%	27.8%0.13%	24.8%0.23%	18.0%0.33%	22.6%0.45%	37.0%0.03%
Green Bay Packers	88.4%0.07%	80.1%0.45%	66.6%3.28%	75.1%0.36%	68.6%2.41%	76.0%0.07%		63.9%2.98%	67.5%1.84%	85.8%0.98%	47.6%7.69%	67.9%3.07%	62.7%5.00%	52.6%7.19%	60.7%8.32%	80.1%0.78%
Minnesota Vikings	76.3%0.06%	70.8%0.34%	53.5%2.77%	62.5%0.28%	53.3%1.90%	79.7%0.07%	36.1%2.98%		55.5%1.56%	74.8%0.70%	32.3%6.82%	52.9%2.59%	47.3%4.27%	37.4%6.02%	45.6%7.07%	69.8%0.64%
New Orleans Saints	82.1%0.03%	58.8%0.05%	46.5%0.47%	55.1%0.23%	47.9%0.73%	69.9%0.08%	32.5%1.84%	44.5%1.56%		73.7%0.25%	26.9%2.46%	49.9%0.91%	42.3%1.38%	34.2%2.14%	40.4%1.87%	65.2%0.21%
New York Giants	70.0%0.01%	41.2%0.08%	25.7%0.47%	39.3%0.15%	18.8%0.10%	56.7%0.03%	14.2%0.98%	25.2%0.70%	26.3%0.25%		14.0%0.51%	23.0%0.48%	20.7%0.77%	16.5%1.06%	21.4%1.28%	35.9%0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	90.7%0.09%	80.5%0.63%	69.1%4.51%	79.4%1.40%	72.7%1.63%	86.3%0.37%	52.4%7.69%	67.7%6.82%	73.1%2.46%	86.0%0.51%		71.1%3.89%	66.1%6.61%	55.6%9.15%	63.1%11.46%	83.9%0.43%
San Francisco 49ers	81.0%0.02%	65.2%0.23%	51.6%1.62%	63.4%0.50%	51.4%1.17%	72.2%0.13%	32.1%3.07%	47.1%2.59%	50.1%0.91%	77.0%0.48%	28.9%3.89%		44.4%2.05%	36.0%3.21%	43.1%4.04%	68.9%0.39%
Seattle Seahawks	81.8%0.04%	70.6%0.40%	55.9%2.62%	69.0%0.92%	57.2%2.00%	75.2%0.23%	37.3%5.00%	52.7%4.27%	57.7%1.38%	79.3%0.77%	33.9%6.61%	55.6%2.05%		40.4%5.79%	47.7%6.15%	73.7%0.56%
St. Louis Rams	87.5%0.05%	73.2%0.52%	64.3%3.61%	74.2%1.25%	66.3%2.96%	82.0%0.33%	47.4%7.19%	62.6%6.02%	65.8%2.14%	83.5%1.06%	44.4%9.15%	64.0%3.21%	59.6%5.79%		57.2%8.33%	77.6%0.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	79.8%0.09%	71.2%0.42%	56.6%3.50%	66.1%1.46%	57.6%3.65%	77.4%0.45%	39.3%8.32%	54.4%7.07%	59.6%1.87%	78.6%1.28%	36.9%11.46%	56.9%4.04%	52.3%6.15%	42.8%8.33%		71.5%1.16%
Washington Redskins	87.5%<0.01%	38.6%0.06%	34.9%0.43%	44.6%0.08%	32.3%0.10%	63.0%0.03%	19.9%0.78%	30.2%0.64%	34.8%0.21%	64.1%0.04%	16.1%0.43%	31.1%0.39%	26.3%0.56%	22.4%0.95%	28.5%1.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		63.7%0.32%	75.0%0.04%	67.5%0.04%	50.6%1.65%	100.0%<0.01%	46.0%2.67%	79.7%0.06%	45.2%3.75%	48.6%1.91%	34.5%4.07%	65.0%0.32%	72.6%0.19%	63.1%0.12%	68.0%0.03%	39.0%3.84%
Buffalo Bills	36.2%0.32%		72.7%0.02%	62.5%0.03%	30.2%0.29%		30.5%0.45%	72.7%0.01%	25.8%0.68%	33.9%0.13%	20.6%0.30%	55.0%0.02%	50.0%0.03%	49.2%0.06%	62.5%<0.01%	25.5%0.60%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.0%0.04%	27.3%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%	25.5%0.14%	0.0%<0.01%	26.1%0.23%	66.7%<0.01%	22.2%0.33%	32.2%0.15%	22.3%0.32%	45.2%0.03%	53.8%0.01%	40.0%0.01%		24.3%0.34%
Cleveland Browns	32.5%0.04%	37.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		22.9%0.14%		27.2%0.18%	40.0%<0.01%	26.2%0.29%	29.0%0.16%	17.0%0.31%	26.7%0.03%	36.8%0.02%	14.3%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	18.1%0.33%
Denver Broncos	49.4%1.65%	69.8%0.29%	74.5%0.14%	77.1%0.14%		100.0%<0.01%	48.4%2.77%	64.4%0.04%	44.9%1.81%	48.7%1.92%	37.7%3.70%	68.9%0.35%	77.1%0.08%	69.1%0.37%	66.7%0.01%	43.5%4.30%
Houston Texans	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%		20.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	18.2%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	54.0%2.67%	69.5%0.45%	73.9%0.23%	72.8%0.18%	51.6%2.77%	66.7%<0.01%		71.4%0.02%	48.4%6.39%	48.0%2.60%	38.1%5.23%	64.4%0.45%	74.8%0.38%	72.9%0.58%	74.3%0.03%	42.7%2.70%
Jacksonville Jaguars	20.3%0.06%	27.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.04%		28.6%0.02%		22.8%0.12%	25.0%0.06%	21.0%0.10%	33.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	30.0%0.01%		21.7%0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	54.8%3.75%	74.2%0.68%	77.8%0.33%	73.8%0.29%	55.1%1.81%	80.0%0.01%	51.6%6.39%	77.2%0.12%		53.5%4.16%	40.9%8.48%	71.1%0.73%	78.6%0.19%	69.7%0.73%	82.4%0.02%	46.3%9.28%
Miami Dolphins	51.4%1.91%	66.1%0.13%	67.8%0.15%	71.0%0.16%	51.3%1.92%	66.7%<0.01%	52.0%2.60%	75.0%0.06%	46.5%4.16%		36.5%1.94%	69.5%0.15%	77.4%0.22%	69.6%0.35%	93.3%0.03%	41.0%3.57%
New England Patriots	65.5%4.07%	79.4%0.30%	77.7%0.32%	83.0%0.31%	62.3%3.70%	81.8%0.02%	61.9%5.23%	79.0%0.10%	59.1%8.48%	63.5%1.94%		72.4%0.33%	84.1%0.50%	80.3%0.82%	91.5%0.05%	55.0%7.49%
New York Jets	35.0%0.32%	45.0%0.02%	54.8%0.03%	73.3%0.03%	31.1%0.35%	0.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.45%	66.7%<0.01%	28.9%0.73%	30.5%0.15%	27.6%0.33%		66.7%0.05%	55.4%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	27.9%0.60%
Oakland Raiders	27.4%0.19%	50.0%0.03%	46.2%0.01%	63.2%0.02%	22.9%0.08%		25.2%0.38%	33.3%<0.01%	21.4%0.19%	22.6%0.22%	15.9%0.50%	33.3%0.05%		44.2%0.04%		20.6%0.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.9%0.12%	50.8%0.06%	60.0%0.01%	85.7%0.01%	30.9%0.37%	0.0%<0.01%	27.1%0.58%	70.0%0.01%	30.3%0.73%	30.4%0.35%	19.7%0.82%	44.6%0.07%	55.8%0.04%		80.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.73%
San Diego Chargers	32.0%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%		25.7%0.03%		17.6%0.02%	6.7%0.03%	8.5%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%		13.6%0.07%
Tennessee Titans	61.0%3.84%	74.5%0.60%	75.7%0.34%	81.9%0.33%	56.5%4.30%	100.0%<0.01%	57.3%2.70%	78.3%0.05%	53.7%9.28%	59.0%3.57%	45.0%7.49%	72.1%0.60%	79.4%0.53%	75.0%0.73%	86.4%0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		50.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		26.7%0.01%	9.1%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		16.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	23.1%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	50.0%<0.01%		53.8%0.03%	47.4%0.02%	42.1%0.04%	80.0%<0.01%	19.7%0.19%	39.6%0.11%	25.0%0.01%	80.0%0.01%	21.8%0.20%	38.4%0.07%	33.1%0.12%	22.9%0.17%	25.4%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%
Carolina Panthers	83.3%<0.01%	46.2%0.03%		64.8%0.13%	48.4%0.43%	62.5%0.02%	31.4%1.65%	47.4%0.99%	48.4%0.13%	76.7%0.07%	30.8%2.29%	49.9%0.69%	45.6%1.20%	35.0%2.08%	45.1%0.73%	67.1%0.08%
Chicago Bears	100.0%<0.01%	52.6%0.02%	35.2%0.13%		39.0%0.12%		33.6%0.15%	38.9%0.07%	37.5%0.05%	70.4%0.03%	20.7%0.60%	38.3%0.14%	34.1%0.26%	29.3%0.45%	31.1%0.40%	52.6%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	100.0%<0.01%	57.9%0.04%	51.6%0.43%	61.0%0.12%		66.7%0.02%	34.2%1.29%	45.3%0.76%	57.7%0.21%	81.8%0.02%	34.5%0.71%	48.5%0.52%	46.0%0.86%	36.3%1.47%	45.0%1.22%	76.9%0.03%
Detroit Lions		20.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%		33.3%0.02%		21.1%0.02%	53.8%0.01%	34.8%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	16.7%0.13%	26.7%0.01%	20.4%0.05%	28.4%0.07%	24.1%0.08%
Green Bay Packers	73.3%0.01%	80.3%0.19%	68.6%1.65%	66.4%0.15%	65.8%1.29%	78.9%0.02%		65.0%1.22%	68.3%0.94%	87.3%0.24%	47.8%6.42%	67.7%1.71%	62.5%2.96%	54.1%5.11%	60.2%4.74%	82.7%0.24%
Minnesota Vikings	90.9%0.01%	60.4%0.11%	52.6%0.99%	61.1%0.07%	54.7%0.76%	46.2%0.01%	35.0%1.22%		54.1%0.53%	69.0%0.14%	34.8%4.04%	54.8%1.06%	48.8%1.72%	42.6%3.18%	46.6%2.96%	69.9%0.18%
New Orleans Saints	66.7%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%	51.6%0.13%	62.5%0.05%	42.3%0.21%	65.2%0.02%	31.7%0.94%	45.9%0.53%		71.1%0.04%	30.4%1.16%	45.4%0.37%	41.6%0.58%	35.2%1.08%	43.6%0.42%	74.5%0.06%
New York Giants		20.0%0.01%	23.3%0.07%	29.6%0.03%	18.2%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	12.7%0.24%	31.0%0.14%	28.9%0.04%		8.5%0.12%	29.7%0.10%	24.9%0.17%	19.8%0.25%	24.3%0.22%	50.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	84.0%0.03%	78.2%0.20%	69.2%2.29%	79.3%0.60%	65.5%0.71%	83.3%0.13%	52.2%6.42%	65.2%4.04%	69.6%1.16%	91.5%0.12%		69.6%2.38%	64.6%4.57%	56.2%7.66%	63.7%6.59%	84.0%0.13%
San Francisco 49ers	0.0%<0.01%	61.6%0.07%	50.1%0.69%	61.7%0.14%	51.5%0.52%	73.3%0.01%	32.3%1.71%	45.2%1.06%	54.6%0.37%	70.3%0.10%	30.4%2.38%		47.9%0.51%	40.2%0.82%	43.9%1.78%	67.3%0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	75.0%<0.01%	66.9%0.12%	54.4%1.20%	65.9%0.26%	54.0%0.86%	79.6%0.05%	37.5%2.96%	51.2%1.72%	58.4%0.58%	75.1%0.17%	35.4%4.57%	52.1%0.51%		42.5%1.61%	50.5%3.52%	76.2%0.17%
St. Louis Rams	80.0%<0.01%	77.1%0.17%	65.0%2.08%	70.7%0.45%	63.7%1.47%	71.6%0.07%	45.9%5.11%	57.4%3.18%	64.8%1.08%	80.2%0.25%	43.8%7.66%	59.8%0.82%	57.5%1.61%		57.5%6.16%	79.0%0.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	76.9%0.01%	74.6%0.06%	54.9%0.73%	68.9%0.40%	55.0%1.22%	75.9%0.08%	39.8%4.74%	53.4%2.96%	56.4%0.42%	75.7%0.22%	36.3%6.59%	56.1%1.78%	49.5%3.52%	42.5%6.16%		71.7%0.25%
Washington Redskins	66.7%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	32.9%0.08%	47.4%0.02%	23.1%0.03%		17.3%0.24%	30.1%0.18%	25.5%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	16.0%0.13%	32.7%0.11%	23.8%0.17%	21.0%0.32%	28.3%0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	100.0%<0.01%	71.4%0.03%	60.2%0.35%	75.0%0.07%	54.8%0.26%	71.4%<0.01%	45.0%1.33%	60.0%0.63%	58.4%0.21%	74.1%0.03%	43.3%1.88%	63.0%0.35%	56.6%0.69%	49.5%1.32%	58.9%1.16%	73.0%0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	51.4%0.04%	20.0%<0.01%	48.7%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	27.9%0.13%	44.8%0.07%	44.8%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	26.6%0.18%	56.1%0.04%	31.2%0.08%	38.9%0.15%	35.7%0.11%	80.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	46.2%0.01%		24.6%0.06%	37.5%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	29.1%0.11%	50.0%<0.01%	36.0%0.03%	22.9%0.07%	24.6%0.06%
Cleveland Browns	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	22.2%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%		35.3%0.05%	52.2%0.02%	10.0%0.01%		28.4%0.09%	37.5%0.02%	31.0%0.04%	33.3%0.06%	46.5%0.04%
Denver Broncos	66.7%<0.01%	81.0%0.02%	59.5%0.34%	80.0%0.07%	64.2%0.28%	66.7%<0.01%	43.3%1.31%	59.0%0.58%	57.2%0.17%	73.9%0.02%	42.9%1.82%	64.3%0.37%	56.4%0.73%	50.3%1.37%	56.5%1.07%	75.9%0.03%
Houston Texans			100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%				75.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.0%<0.01%	67.6%0.03%	64.8%0.51%	62.9%0.09%	58.6%0.42%	73.9%0.02%	46.4%1.87%	58.8%0.93%	62.4%0.26%	87.2%0.05%	42.9%2.79%	60.7%0.50%	60.0%0.97%	51.5%1.99%	61.2%1.54%	68.8%0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars		100.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		16.7%0.02%	11.1%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		11.4%0.03%	80.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%	33.3%0.01%	18.8%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	100.0%<0.01%	83.3%0.07%	61.9%0.83%	66.1%0.12%	59.2%0.60%	83.3%0.02%	47.2%2.90%	59.9%1.39%	64.2%0.40%	87.2%0.05%	44.5%4.34%	64.1%0.74%	60.1%1.57%	49.5%3.03%	58.7%2.48%	80.2%0.08%
Miami Dolphins	100.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.02%	64.8%0.34%	73.3%0.06%	58.2%0.26%	75.0%<0.01%	45.2%1.31%	60.0%0.66%	56.6%0.18%	70.4%0.03%	41.7%1.85%	61.9%0.34%	61.0%0.70%	50.9%1.34%	57.4%1.18%	82.4%0.03%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	80.6%0.06%	70.4%0.83%	76.1%0.18%	70.0%0.63%	82.6%0.02%	56.4%3.36%	69.9%1.56%	72.0%0.42%	88.2%0.07%	56.0%4.74%	70.4%0.90%	69.8%1.73%	64.3%3.45%	69.5%2.72%	88.3%0.08%
New York Jets		100.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.04%	25.0%<0.01%	56.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	30.7%0.17%	40.8%0.08%	36.4%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.23%	58.1%0.04%	54.3%0.09%	35.2%0.18%	45.8%0.14%
Oakland Raiders		100.0%<0.01%	35.0%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%		21.7%0.07%	33.3%0.05%	33.3%<0.01%		16.8%0.11%	47.8%0.02%	20.0%0.04%	22.4%0.10%	28.8%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers		100.0%<0.01%	55.8%0.05%	37.5%<0.01%	31.2%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	30.5%0.17%	41.2%0.08%	41.7%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	25.7%0.28%	45.8%0.05%	40.9%0.09%	36.4%0.15%	44.1%0.17%	50.0%<0.01%
San Diego Chargers			100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			14.3%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%
Tennessee Titans	100.0%<0.01%	77.2%0.06%	64.4%0.75%	81.8%0.14%	66.0%0.66%	92.3%0.03%	50.7%3.06%	65.3%1.47%	70.3%0.41%	84.5%0.06%	49.2%4.48%	69.7%0.81%	64.9%1.57%	55.2%3.19%	65.3%2.50%	75.6%0.08%
Arizona Cardinals																	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons																	28.6%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.02%		32.4%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.07%	47.8%0.02%	19.4%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		22.8%0.06%
Carolina Panthers																	39.8%0.35%	48.6%0.04%	42.9%0.01%	77.8%<0.01%	40.5%0.34%	0.0%<0.01%	35.2%0.51%	85.7%<0.01%	38.1%0.83%	35.2%0.34%	29.6%0.83%	44.4%0.04%	65.0%0.02%	44.2%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.75%
Chicago Bears																	25.0%0.07%	80.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	37.1%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	33.9%0.12%	26.7%0.06%	23.9%0.18%	75.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	62.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.14%
Dallas Cowboys																	45.2%0.26%	51.3%0.04%	53.8%0.01%	57.1%0.01%	35.8%0.28%	100.0%<0.01%	41.4%0.42%	0.0%<0.01%	40.8%0.60%	41.8%0.26%	30.0%0.63%	43.3%0.03%	85.7%0.01%	68.8%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	34.0%0.66%
Detroit Lions																	28.6%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%		26.1%0.02%		16.7%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	17.4%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%		7.7%0.03%
Green Bay Packers																	55.0%1.33%	72.1%0.13%	75.4%0.06%	64.7%0.05%	56.7%1.31%	100.0%<0.01%	53.6%1.87%	83.3%0.02%	52.8%2.90%	54.8%1.31%	43.6%3.36%	69.3%0.17%	78.3%0.07%	69.5%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%	49.3%3.06%
Minnesota Vikings																	40.0%0.63%	55.2%0.07%	62.5%0.04%	47.8%0.02%	41.0%0.58%		41.2%0.93%	88.9%<0.01%	40.1%1.39%	40.0%0.66%	30.1%1.56%	59.2%0.08%	66.7%0.05%	58.8%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%	34.7%1.47%
New Orleans Saints																	41.6%0.21%	55.2%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	90.0%0.01%	42.8%0.17%		37.6%0.26%	100.0%<0.01%	35.8%0.40%	43.4%0.18%	28.0%0.42%	63.6%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	58.3%0.02%		29.7%0.41%
New York Giants																	25.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%		26.1%0.02%		12.8%0.05%		12.8%0.05%	29.6%0.03%	11.8%0.07%	25.0%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%		15.5%0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles																	56.7%1.88%	73.4%0.18%	70.9%0.11%	71.6%0.09%	57.1%1.82%	25.0%<0.01%	57.1%2.79%	88.6%0.03%	55.5%4.34%	58.3%1.85%	44.0%4.74%	68.4%0.23%	83.2%0.11%	74.3%0.28%	85.7%0.01%	50.8%4.48%
San Francisco 49ers																	37.0%0.35%	43.9%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	62.5%0.02%	35.7%0.37%	50.0%<0.01%	39.3%0.50%	20.0%<0.01%	35.9%0.74%	38.1%0.34%	29.6%0.90%	41.9%0.04%	52.2%0.02%	54.2%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	30.3%0.81%
Seattle Seahawks																	43.4%0.69%	68.8%0.08%	64.0%0.03%	69.0%0.04%	43.6%0.73%		40.0%0.97%	81.8%0.01%	39.9%1.57%	39.0%0.70%	30.2%1.73%	45.7%0.09%	80.0%0.04%	59.1%0.09%	71.4%<0.01%	35.1%1.57%
St. Louis Rams																	50.5%1.32%	61.1%0.15%	77.1%0.07%	66.7%0.06%	49.7%1.37%		48.5%1.99%	66.7%0.01%	50.5%3.03%	49.1%1.34%	35.7%3.45%	64.8%0.18%	77.6%0.10%	63.6%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	44.8%3.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	41.1%1.16%	64.3%0.11%	75.4%0.06%	53.5%0.04%	43.5%1.07%	0.0%<0.01%	38.8%1.54%	81.2%0.02%	41.3%2.48%	42.6%1.18%	30.5%2.72%	54.2%0.14%	71.2%0.07%	55.9%0.17%	71.4%<0.01%	34.7%2.50%
Washington Redskins																	27.0%0.04%	20.0%<0.01%			24.1%0.03%		31.2%0.05%		19.8%0.08%	17.6%0.03%	11.7%0.08%		50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		24.4%0.08%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	69.85%	49.54%	28.78%	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	69.27%	47.84%	22.92%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
St. Louis Rams	100.00%	65.51%	25.51%	10.63%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	59.33%	21.50%	10.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	75.31%	30.97%	15.47%	7.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tennessee Titans	46.73%	18.65%	8.77%	5.12%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Indianapolis Colts	61.79%	24.19%	9.11%	4.55%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	53.27%	17.04%	6.74%	3.43%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Denver Broncos	38.21%	10.95%	4.34%	2.24%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Carolina Panthers	60.35%	17.39%	5.44%	1.90%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	24.70%	7.30%	2.83%	1.13%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	39.65%	9.56%	2.90%	1.10%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens				53.3%100.00%
Denver Broncos			38.2%100.00%
Indianapolis Colts		61.8%100.00%
Tennessee Titans	46.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		60.3%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys	39.7%100.00%
Green Bay Packers				75.3%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks			24.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens				39.2%20.47%	27.5%32.80%
Denver Broncos					28.7%38.21%
Indianapolis Colts				39.1%61.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.8%20.47%		60.9%61.79%			52.3%17.74%
New England Patriots	72.5%32.80%	71.3%38.21%				64.9%28.99%
Tennessee Titans				47.7%17.74%	35.1%28.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers						28.8%60.35%
Dallas Cowboys				24.1%39.65%
Green Bay Packers				37.9%45.41%		46.1%29.90%
Philadelphia Eagles		75.9%39.65%	62.1%45.41%		73.4%14.94%
Seattle Seahawks				26.6%14.94%		34.1%9.76%
St. Louis Rams	71.2%60.35%		53.9%29.90%		65.9%9.76%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		60.6%2.26%	39.6%3.57%	40.9%5.45%	30.0%5.76%
Denver Broncos	39.4%2.26%			42.7%6.23%		32.0%2.46%
Indianapolis Colts	60.4%3.57%				29.1%16.68%	53.4%3.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	59.1%5.45%	57.3%6.23%			27.9%41.40%	51.0%6.24%
New England Patriots	70.0%5.76%		70.9%16.68%	72.1%41.40%		63.4%6.01%
Tennessee Titans		68.0%2.46%	46.6%3.94%	49.0%6.24%	36.6%6.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers			43.1%4.89%	23.8%11.39%	56.3%1.11%
Dallas Cowboys			24.5%3.33%		35.7%0.84%	33.1%5.39%
Green Bay Packers	56.9%4.89%	75.5%3.33%		39.7%10.44%		49.0%12.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	76.2%11.39%		60.3%10.44%		70.0%2.49%	69.2%44.95%
Seattle Seahawks	43.7%1.11%	64.3%0.84%		30.0%2.49%		37.0%2.85%
St. Louis Rams		66.9%5.39%	51.0%12.31%	30.8%44.95%	63.0%2.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Baltimore Ravens	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	62.0%0.35%	53.8%0.17%	42.4%1.08%	49.5%3.22%	55.5%0.18%	55.6%1.74%
Denver Broncos	67.3%0.22%	58.9%0.11%	46.7%0.66%	48.7%2.07%	65.0%0.12%	54.3%1.16%
Indianapolis Colts	62.4%0.48%	56.3%0.26%	45.1%1.38%	48.3%4.45%	49.4%0.24%	52.6%2.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.6%1.17%	57.4%0.61%	42.1%3.31%	44.9%10.31%	53.0%0.61%	52.6%5.50%
New England Patriots	68.1%2.77%	65.2%1.49%	52.6%7.69%	55.8%23.59%	64.0%1.44%	62.0%12.55%
Tennessee Titans	70.0%0.46%	67.5%0.26%	52.3%1.36%	56.5%4.21%	64.9%0.23%	61.6%2.27%
Carolina Panthers							38.0%0.35%	32.7%0.22%	37.6%0.48%	42.4%1.17%	31.9%2.77%	30.0%0.46%
Dallas Cowboys							46.2%0.17%	41.1%0.11%	43.7%0.26%	42.6%0.61%	34.8%1.49%	32.5%0.26%
Green Bay Packers							57.6%1.08%	53.3%0.66%	54.9%1.38%	57.9%3.31%	47.4%7.69%	47.7%1.36%
Philadelphia Eagles							50.5%3.22%	51.3%2.07%	51.7%4.45%	55.1%10.31%	44.2%23.59%	43.5%4.21%
Seattle Seahawks							44.5%0.18%	35.0%0.12%	50.6%0.24%	47.0%0.61%	36.0%1.44%	35.1%0.23%
St. Louis Rams							44.4%1.74%	45.7%1.16%	47.4%2.30%	47.4%5.50%	38.0%12.55%	38.4%2.27%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New England Patriots 28.78% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.03%

Win Prob

71.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

60.30%

Win Prob

72.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

45.73%

Win Prob

55.78%

Philadelphia Eagles 22.92% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

43.44%

Win Prob

75.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

65.05%

Win Prob

69.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.52%

Win Prob

44.22%

St. Louis Rams 10.63% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

65.57%

Win Prob

71.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.20%

Win Prob

30.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.82%

Win Prob

37.97%

Kansas City Chiefs 10.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

63.38%

Win Prob

60.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

53.63%

Win Prob

27.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

45.15%

Win Prob

44.94%

Green Bay Packers 7.93% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

55.54%

Win Prob

37.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

39.02%

Win Prob

49.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.89%

Win Prob

47.36%

Tennessee Titans 5.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

54.59%

Win Prob

35.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.88%

Win Prob

49.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.40%

Win Prob

56.49%

Indianapolis Colts 4.55% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

53.21%

Win Prob

29.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

47.27%

Win Prob

48.32%

Baltimore Ravens 3.43% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

52.96%

Win Prob

27.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

33.09%

Win Prob

40.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

46.49%

Win Prob

49.55%

Denver Broncos 2.24% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

61.37%

Win Prob

42.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

44.95%

Win Prob

48.69%

Carolina Panthers 1.90% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.35%

→

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

49.79%

Win Prob

23.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.50%

Win Prob

31.85%

Seattle Seahawks 1.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.70%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.38%

Win Prob

26.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

37.32%

Win Prob

36.95%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.81%

Win Prob

35.99%

Dallas Cowboys 1.10% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.65%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

61.58%

Win Prob

33.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.23%

Win Prob

34.78%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2003-09-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-42	1439.99	1436.31	38.84%	60.96%	-25.07	0-1
2003-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-38	1414.92	1524.75	45.88%	53.91%	-43.03	0-2
2003-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 20-13	1371.89	1528.58	39.30%	60.50%	+24.34	1-2
2003-09-28	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-37	1396.23	1500.64	25.44%	74.40%	-18.96	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1377.27	1470.81	26.64%	73.20%	-16.72	1-4
2003-10-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 18-26	1360.55	1505.57	40.91%	58.89%	-17.60	1-5
2003-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1342.95	1541.90	33.68%	66.14%	+17.41	2-5
2003-11-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-14	1360.36	1432.31	51.32%	48.47%	+12.77	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-28	1373.13	1417.55	32.50%	67.31%	-17.83	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-44	1355.30	1451.72	26.32%	73.52%	-24.69	3-7
2003-11-23	St. Louis Rams	L 27-30	1330.61	1582.85	27.21%	72.62%	-7.17	3-8
2003-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-28	1323.44	1440.23	24.11%	75.73%	-18.34	3-9
2003-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-50	1305.10	1512.49	15.88%	84.01%	-14.49	3-10
2003-12-14	Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1290.61	1475.52	35.50%	64.31%	-9.36	3-11
2003-12-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-28	1281.25	1506.33	14.57%	85.32%	-9.40	3-12
2003-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 18-17	1271.85	1550.16	24.34%	75.50%	+11.48	4-12
2003-09-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-13	1518.61	1446.17	48.54%	51.25%	+29.17	1-0
2003-09-14	Washington Redskins	L 31-33	1547.78	1497.57	68.04%	31.78%	-14.63	1-1
2003-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-31	1533.15	1610.51	50.55%	49.25%	-35.23	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-23	1497.92	1497.62	38.38%	61.43%	-26.12	1-3
2003-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-39	1471.80	1567.08	47.97%	51.83%	-26.31	1-4
2003-10-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 0-36	1445.49	1519.60	28.88%	70.95%	-26.37	1-5
2003-10-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-45	1419.12	1438.03	58.86%	40.94%	-47.36	1-6
2003-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-23	1371.76	1549.73	36.42%	63.38%	-14.66	1-7
2003-11-09	@ New York Giants	W 27-7	1357.10	1524.91	19.15%	80.71%	+54.85	2-7
2003-11-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1411.95	1491.43	28.25%	71.58%	-7.44	2-8
2003-11-23	Tennessee Titans	L 31-38	1404.51	1654.98	27.41%	72.42%	-11.04	2-9
2003-11-30	@ Houston Texans	L 13-17	1393.47	1353.87	43.85%	55.95%	-13.34	2-10
2003-12-07	Carolina Panthers	W 20-14	1380.13	1495.93	45.03%	54.76%	+20.40	3-10
2003-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-38	1400.53	1622.29	14.80%	85.08%	-12.54	3-11
2003-12-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-28	1387.99	1585.97	16.61%	83.27%	+17.90	4-11
2003-12-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-14	1405.89	1442.27	56.40%	43.39%	+17.47	5-11
2003-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-34	1492.38	1534.39	32.81%	67.01%	-21.76	0-1
2003-09-14	Cleveland Browns	W 33-13	1470.62	1480.78	60.07%	39.73%	+27.03	1-1
2003-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-10	1497.65	1423.16	48.84%	50.96%	+29.01	2-1
2003-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1526.66	1591.20	52.39%	47.41%	-21.09	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 26-18	1505.57	1360.55	58.89%	40.91%	+17.61	3-2
2003-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 26-34	1523.18	1392.61	56.86%	42.94%	-24.46	3-3
2003-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 26-6	1498.72	1598.97	47.25%	52.54%	+35.74	4-3
2003-11-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1534.46	1388.22	78.71%	21.15%	+8.52	5-3
2003-11-09	@ St. Louis Rams	L 22-33	1542.98	1556.11	36.57%	63.24%	-18.46	5-4
2003-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-9	1524.52	1558.78	33.80%	66.01%	-8.91	5-5
2003-11-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-41	1515.61	1542.08	57.80%	42.00%	+11.07	6-5
2003-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 44-6	1526.68	1551.69	58.01%	41.79%	+39.20	7-5
2003-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-13	1565.88	1494.68	70.60%	29.22%	+18.86	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 12-20	1584.74	1409.33	63.04%	36.76%	-27.11	8-6
2003-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 35-0	1557.63	1408.76	59.42%	40.38%	+36.35	9-6
2003-12-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1593.98	1461.90	77.31%	22.54%	+5.94	10-6
2003-09-07	New England Patriots	W 31-0	1486.49	1526.97	55.82%	43.97%	+37.25	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-17	1523.74	1481.20	44.26%	55.53%	+38.70	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1562.44	1542.72	41.05%	58.75%	-19.75	2-1
2003-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-23	1542.69	1487.60	68.65%	31.17%	-33.00	2-2
2003-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-16	1509.69	1401.96	74.76%	25.07%	+9.34	3-2
2003-10-12	@ New York Jets	L 3-30	1519.03	1445.21	48.74%	51.05%	-38.52	3-3
2003-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 24-7	1480.51	1469.43	62.96%	36.84%	+23.11	4-3
2003-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 5-38	1503.62	1655.72	20.59%	79.27%	-17.99	4-4
2003-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-10	1485.63	1531.75	32.29%	67.53%	-9.83	4-5
2003-11-16	Houston Texans	L 10-12	1475.80	1343.70	77.31%	22.54%	-16.62	4-6
2003-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-17	1459.18	1615.75	39.32%	60.48%	-10.36	4-7
2003-11-30	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1448.82	1445.15	38.84%	60.96%	+38.22	5-7
2003-12-07	New York Jets	W 17-6	1487.04	1509.43	58.37%	41.42%	+20.90	6-7
2003-12-14	@ Tennessee Titans	L 26-28	1507.94	1626.15	23.96%	75.88%	-5.15	6-8
2003-12-21	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1502.79	1570.97	51.86%	47.93%	-32.53	6-9
2003-12-27	@ New England Patriots	L 0-31	1470.26	1698.30	14.35%	85.54%	-12.15	6-10
2003-09-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-23	1470.51	1487.38	59.14%	40.66%	+6.18	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-9	1476.69	1631.44	20.34%	79.51%	+20.93	2-0
2003-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-3	1497.62	1497.92	61.43%	38.38%	+26.12	3-0
2003-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 19-13	1523.74	1433.38	72.84%	27.00%	+10.06	4-0
2003-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1533.80	1621.59	27.29%	72.54%	+19.10	5-0
2003-10-19	Tennessee Titans	L 17-37	1552.90	1566.28	59.63%	40.17%	-40.55	5-1
2003-10-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1512.35	1485.39	42.06%	57.73%	+15.21	6-1
2003-11-02	@ Houston Texans	L 10-14	1527.56	1336.01	65.18%	34.63%	-19.82	6-2
2003-11-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1507.74	1616.86	45.98%	53.81%	+14.18	7-2
2003-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1521.92	1456.65	69.89%	29.93%	+7.89	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-24	1529.81	1526.78	38.75%	61.05%	-11.80	8-3
2003-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-25	1518.01	1610.29	48.40%	51.39%	-22.08	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1495.93	1380.13	54.76%	45.03%	-20.41	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1475.52	1290.61	64.31%	35.50%	+9.36	9-5
2003-12-21	Detroit Lions	W 20-14	1484.88	1348.97	77.70%	22.15%	+8.26	10-5
2003-12-28	@ New York Giants	W 37-24	1493.14	1339.94	60.02%	39.78%	+21.82	11-5
2003-09-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-49	1471.08	1520.19	31.92%	67.90%	-31.48	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1439.60	1497.20	30.86%	68.96%	-15.58	0-2
2003-09-29	Green Bay Packers	L 23-38	1424.02	1504.24	50.13%	49.66%	-29.53	0-3
2003-10-05	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1394.49	1541.49	40.64%	59.16%	+15.58	1-3
2003-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1410.07	1423.31	36.55%	63.25%	-14.72	1-4
2003-10-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1395.35	1546.38	20.69%	79.16%	-8.33	1-5
2003-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-16	1387.02	1356.28	65.56%	34.25%	+14.75	2-5
2003-11-02	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1401.77	1388.53	63.25%	36.56%	+20.05	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-12	1421.82	1370.22	45.55%	54.24%	-9.80	3-6
2003-11-16	St. Louis Rams	L 21-23	1412.02	1574.56	38.50%	61.30%	-8.28	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-10	1403.74	1564.05	19.83%	80.03%	+36.49	4-7
2003-11-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-3	1440.23	1323.44	75.73%	24.11%	+18.34	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-34	1458.57	1546.90	27.23%	72.60%	-14.94	5-8
2003-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1443.63	1518.92	50.84%	48.95%	+12.90	6-8
2003-12-21	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1456.53	1414.15	67.05%	32.76%	+8.63	7-8
2003-12-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-31	1465.16	1600.93	22.17%	77.68%	-17.85	7-9
2003-09-07	Denver Broncos	L 10-30	1427.68	1519.41	48.48%	51.32%	-32.98	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1394.70	1554.66	19.86%	80.00%	-5.24	0-2
2003-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1389.46	1527.20	41.93%	57.87%	-16.88	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-14	1372.58	1464.74	26.79%	73.04%	+29.38	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-22	1401.96	1509.69	25.07%	74.76%	-9.35	1-4
2003-10-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-26	1392.61	1523.18	42.94%	56.86%	+24.46	2-4
2003-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1417.07	1554.71	41.94%	57.85%	+15.24	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-17	1432.31	1360.36	48.47%	51.32%	-12.77	3-5
2003-11-09	Houston Texans	W 34-27	1419.54	1355.83	69.70%	30.12%	+12.12	4-5
2003-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-19	1431.66	1684.58	27.13%	72.70%	+24.72	5-5
2003-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1456.38	1387.26	48.06%	51.73%	+20.81	6-5
2003-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1477.19	1448.63	42.29%	57.51%	+17.49	7-5
2003-12-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-31	1494.68	1565.88	29.22%	70.60%	-18.86	7-6
2003-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-38	1475.82	1526.98	54.30%	45.49%	+11.99	8-6
2003-12-21	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-27	1487.81	1634.83	21.07%	78.78%	-13.22	8-7
2003-12-28	Cleveland Browns	L 14-22	1474.59	1372.41	74.16%	25.68%	-31.89	8-8
2003-09-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-9	1496.92	1498.44	61.26%	38.54%	-16.14	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-33	1480.78	1470.62	39.73%	60.07%	-27.03	0-2
2003-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-12	1453.75	1539.40	27.53%	72.30%	+10.99	1-2
2003-09-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1464.74	1372.58	73.04%	26.79%	-29.38	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-13	1435.36	1504.61	29.45%	70.37%	+47.85	2-3
2003-10-12	Oakland Raiders	W 13-7	1483.21	1525.91	55.51%	44.29%	+16.50	3-3
2003-10-19	San Diego Chargers	L 20-26	1499.71	1375.51	76.51%	23.34%	-28.48	3-4
2003-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 3-9	1471.23	1597.02	23.17%	76.67%	-8.64	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-41	1462.59	1673.72	15.59%	84.29%	-10.87	3-6
2003-11-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 44-6	1451.72	1355.30	73.52%	26.32%	+24.69	4-6
2003-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-13	1476.41	1421.00	68.68%	31.13%	-27.63	4-7
2003-11-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-34	1448.78	1531.01	27.93%	71.90%	-22.08	4-8
2003-12-08	St. Louis Rams	L 20-26	1426.70	1613.29	35.28%	64.53%	-13.16	4-9
2003-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1413.54	1592.75	18.16%	81.71%	-4.78	4-10
2003-12-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-35	1408.76	1557.63	40.38%	59.42%	-36.35	4-11
2003-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-14	1372.41	1474.59	25.68%	74.16%	+31.88	5-11
2003-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-27	1446.17	1518.61	51.25%	48.54%	-29.17	0-1
2003-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 35-32	1417.00	1536.82	23.79%	76.05%	+20.02	1-1
2003-09-28	@ New York Jets	W 17-6	1437.02	1479.00	32.81%	67.00%	+33.79	2-1
2003-10-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-7	1470.81	1377.27	73.20%	26.64%	+16.71	3-1
2003-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1487.52	1528.50	55.75%	44.04%	+9.48	4-1
2003-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-7	1497.00	1396.25	52.61%	47.18%	+39.96	5-1
2003-10-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-16	1536.96	1621.25	27.69%	72.14%	-16.85	5-2
2003-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1520.11	1446.32	70.91%	28.91%	+11.64	6-2
2003-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 10-6	1531.75	1485.63	67.53%	32.29%	+9.83	7-2
2003-11-16	@ New England Patriots	L 0-12	1541.58	1622.55	28.07%	71.76%	-14.80	7-3
2003-11-23	Carolina Panthers	W 24-20	1526.78	1529.81	61.05%	38.75%	+11.79	8-3
2003-11-27	Miami Dolphins	L 21-40	1538.57	1571.32	56.92%	42.88%	-37.73	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-36	1500.84	1632.38	22.59%	77.26%	-17.53	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-0	1483.31	1460.20	41.53%	58.27%	+46.05	9-5
2003-12-21	New York Giants	W 19-3	1529.36	1351.04	81.63%	18.24%	+11.10	10-5
2003-12-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-13	1540.46	1496.38	44.48%	55.31%	-16.58	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-10	1519.41	1427.68	51.32%	48.48%	+32.98	1-0
2003-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-13	1552.39	1459.12	51.54%	48.26%	+35.97	2-0
2003-09-22	Oakland Raiders	W 31-10	1588.36	1559.90	65.26%	34.55%	+24.09	3-0
2003-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1612.45	1412.06	83.46%	16.42%	+5.00	4-0
2003-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1617.45	1612.28	39.04%	60.76%	-5.95	4-1
2003-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1611.50	1456.77	79.51%	20.35%	+5.37	5-1
2003-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-28	1616.87	1593.39	41.58%	58.22%	-17.90	5-2
2003-10-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-26	1598.97	1498.72	52.54%	47.25%	-35.73	5-3
2003-11-03	New England Patriots	L 26-30	1563.24	1605.65	55.55%	44.25%	-16.90	5-4
2003-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 37-8	1546.34	1404.98	78.23%	21.62%	+17.71	6-4
2003-11-23	Chicago Bears	L 10-19	1564.05	1403.74	80.03%	19.83%	-36.49	6-5
2003-11-30	@ Oakland Raiders	W 22-8	1527.56	1465.91	46.99%	52.80%	+30.05	7-5
2003-12-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-27	1557.61	1671.22	45.34%	54.45%	+35.14	8-5
2003-12-14	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1592.75	1413.54	81.71%	18.16%	+4.78	9-5
2003-12-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1597.53	1634.83	33.41%	66.40%	+37.78	10-5
2003-12-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1635.31	1620.73	40.34%	59.46%	-32.48	10-6
2003-09-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 42-24	1436.31	1439.99	60.96%	38.84%	+25.08	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1461.39	1503.64	32.78%	67.04%	-24.94	1-1
2003-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-23	1436.45	1512.78	50.69%	49.10%	-24.39	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1412.06	1612.45	16.42%	83.46%	-4.99	1-3
2003-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1407.07	1498.49	26.88%	72.96%	-10.82	1-4
2003-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-38	1396.25	1497.00	47.18%	52.61%	-39.97	1-5
2003-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-24	1356.28	1387.02	34.25%	65.56%	-14.74	1-6
2003-11-02	Oakland Raiders	W 23-13	1341.54	1492.03	40.15%	59.65%	+28.68	2-6
2003-11-09	Chicago Bears	W 12-10	1370.22	1421.82	54.24%	45.55%	+9.80	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-35	1380.02	1527.41	21.04%	78.82%	-14.67	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-24	1365.35	1492.74	23.01%	76.84%	-11.07	3-8
2003-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 22-14	1354.28	1576.60	30.74%	69.08%	+29.70	4-8
2003-12-07	San Diego Chargers	L 7-14	1383.98	1359.65	64.72%	35.09%	-26.03	4-9
2003-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-45	1357.95	1636.09	11.16%	88.75%	-8.98	4-10
2003-12-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-20	1348.97	1484.88	22.15%	77.70%	-8.26	4-11
2003-12-28	St. Louis Rams	W 30-20	1340.71	1648.05	21.40%	78.45%	+37.70	5-11
2003-09-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 25-30	1526.89	1473.96	68.38%	31.44%	-23.25	0-1
2003-09-14	Detroit Lions	W 31-6	1503.64	1461.39	67.04%	32.78%	+24.94	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-20	1528.58	1371.89	60.50%	39.30%	-24.34	1-2
2003-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-23	1504.24	1424.02	49.66%	50.13%	+29.54	2-2
2003-10-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-13	1533.78	1572.38	56.09%	43.71%	+31.19	3-2
2003-10-12	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-40	1564.97	1618.22	54.01%	45.79%	-20.12	3-3
2003-10-19	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-34	1544.85	1545.96	38.19%	61.62%	-18.38	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-27	1526.47	1570.02	32.62%	67.20%	+17.70	4-4
2003-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1544.17	1564.39	58.68%	41.12%	-15.46	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-13	1528.71	1602.69	28.89%	70.93%	+28.53	5-5
2003-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1557.24	1571.05	59.57%	40.23%	+19.36	6-5
2003-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-22	1576.60	1354.28	69.08%	30.74%	-29.70	6-6
2003-12-07	Chicago Bears	W 34-21	1546.90	1458.57	72.60%	27.23%	+14.94	7-6
2003-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 38-21	1561.84	1385.69	63.14%	36.67%	+23.00	8-6
2003-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-7	1584.84	1436.44	59.36%	40.44%	+35.89	9-6
2003-12-28	Denver Broncos	W 31-3	1620.73	1635.31	59.46%	40.34%	+32.48	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-20	1391.09	1522.57	22.60%	77.25%	+11.74	1-0
2003-09-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-31	1402.83	1479.27	28.60%	71.22%	-19.95	1-1
2003-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-42	1382.88	1561.99	36.27%	63.54%	-29.20	1-2
2003-09-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1353.68	1430.29	50.65%	49.14%	+14.95	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-38	1368.63	1553.98	17.64%	82.23%	-12.30	2-3
2003-10-19	New York Jets	L 14-19	1356.33	1483.74	43.38%	56.41%	-14.76	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-30	1341.57	1602.49	12.18%	87.72%	-5.56	2-5
2003-11-02	Carolina Panthers	W 14-10	1336.01	1527.56	34.63%	65.18%	+19.82	3-5
2003-11-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-34	1355.83	1419.54	30.12%	69.70%	-12.13	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 12-10	1343.70	1475.80	22.54%	77.31%	+16.62	4-6
2003-11-23	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1360.32	1637.35	24.48%	75.36%	-6.45	4-7
2003-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1353.87	1393.47	55.95%	43.85%	+13.34	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-27	1367.21	1417.75	31.74%	68.08%	-25.09	5-8
2003-12-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-16	1342.12	1578.41	13.78%	86.11%	-7.56	5-9
2003-12-21	Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1334.56	1631.31	22.44%	77.41%	-5.92	5-10
2003-12-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1328.64	1597.05	25.41%	74.43%	-6.69	5-11
2003-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 9-6	1498.44	1496.92	38.54%	61.26%	+16.13	1-0
2003-09-14	Tennessee Titans	W 33-7	1514.57	1544.43	57.33%	42.47%	+32.95	2-0
2003-09-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-13	1547.52	1442.50	74.47%	25.37%	+12.21	3-0
2003-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 55-21	1559.73	1477.60	49.93%	49.86%	+44.22	4-0
2003-10-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-35	1603.95	1645.74	32.84%	66.98%	+17.64	5-0
2003-10-12	Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1621.59	1533.80	72.54%	27.29%	-19.10	5-1
2003-10-26	Houston Texans	W 30-21	1602.49	1341.57	87.72%	12.18%	+5.56	6-1
2003-11-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1608.05	1606.04	38.61%	61.19%	+22.79	7-1
2003-11-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-28	1630.84	1379.71	72.50%	27.33%	-24.64	7-2
2003-11-16	New York Jets	W 38-31	1606.20	1485.73	76.12%	23.72%	+9.55	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1615.75	1459.18	60.48%	39.32%	+10.36	9-2
2003-11-30	New England Patriots	L 34-38	1626.11	1643.80	59.03%	40.77%	-17.95	9-3
2003-12-07	@ Tennessee Titans	W 29-27	1608.16	1640.29	34.07%	65.74%	+14.13	10-3
2003-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1622.29	1400.53	85.08%	14.80%	+12.54	11-3
2003-12-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-31	1634.83	1597.53	66.40%	33.41%	-37.78	11-4
2003-12-28	@ Houston Texans	W 20-17	1597.05	1328.64	74.43%	25.41%	+6.70	12-4
2003-09-07	@ Carolina Panthers	L 23-24	1487.38	1470.51	40.66%	59.14%	-6.18	0-1
2003-09-14	Buffalo Bills	L 17-38	1481.20	1523.74	55.53%	44.26%	-38.70	0-2
2003-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-23	1442.50	1547.52	25.37%	74.47%	-12.21	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Houston Texans	L 20-24	1430.29	1353.68	49.14%	50.65%	-14.95	0-4
2003-10-05	San Diego Chargers	W 27-21	1415.34	1388.46	65.05%	34.76%	+12.95	1-4
2003-10-12	Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1428.29	1593.92	38.08%	61.72%	-21.68	1-5
2003-10-26	Tennessee Titans	L 17-30	1406.61	1606.83	33.51%	66.30%	-18.39	1-6
2003-11-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-24	1388.22	1534.46	21.15%	78.71%	-8.51	1-7
2003-11-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-23	1379.71	1630.84	27.33%	72.50%	+24.64	2-7
2003-11-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-10	1404.35	1649.68	13.18%	86.72%	-5.30	2-8
2003-11-23	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1399.05	1476.18	28.52%	71.31%	-7.52	2-9
2003-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1391.53	1583.01	34.64%	65.17%	+26.22	3-9
2003-12-07	Houston Texans	W 27-0	1417.75	1367.21	68.08%	31.74%	+25.09	4-9
2003-12-14	@ New England Patriots	L 13-27	1442.84	1678.34	13.84%	86.06%	-7.87	4-10
2003-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 20-19	1434.97	1503.68	51.79%	48.00%	+7.30	5-10
2003-12-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1442.27	1405.89	43.39%	56.40%	-17.46	5-11
2003-09-07	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1514.70	1477.45	66.40%	33.42%	+18.34	1-0
2003-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-20	1533.04	1556.15	58.27%	41.53%	+28.95	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Houston Texans	W 42-14	1561.99	1382.88	63.54%	36.27%	+29.21	3-0
2003-09-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1591.20	1526.66	47.41%	52.39%	+21.08	4-0
2003-10-05	Denver Broncos	W 24-23	1612.28	1617.45	60.76%	39.04%	+5.94	5-0
2003-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 40-34	1618.22	1564.97	45.79%	54.01%	+20.12	6-0
2003-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-10	1638.34	1509.41	56.63%	43.17%	+17.38	7-0
2003-10-26	Buffalo Bills	W 38-5	1655.72	1503.62	79.27%	20.59%	+18.00	8-0
2003-11-09	Cleveland Browns	W 41-20	1673.72	1462.59	84.29%	15.59%	+10.86	9-0
2003-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-24	1684.58	1431.66	72.70%	27.13%	-24.71	9-1
2003-11-23	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1659.87	1470.46	82.57%	17.31%	+4.56	10-1
2003-11-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1664.43	1366.45	77.53%	22.32%	+6.79	11-1
2003-12-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-45	1671.22	1557.61	54.45%	45.34%	-35.13	11-2
2003-12-14	Detroit Lions	W 45-17	1636.09	1357.95	88.75%	11.16%	+8.98	12-2
2003-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-45	1645.07	1506.02	58.05%	41.75%	-44.14	12-3
2003-12-28	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1600.93	1465.16	77.68%	22.17%	+17.85	13-3
2003-09-07	Houston Texans	L 20-21	1522.57	1391.09	77.25%	22.60%	-11.74	0-1
2003-09-14	@ New York Jets	W 21-10	1510.83	1523.97	36.57%	63.24%	+31.89	1-1
2003-09-21	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1542.72	1562.44	58.75%	41.05%	+19.75	2-1
2003-10-05	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1562.47	1532.82	42.44%	57.35%	+31.45	3-1
2003-10-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-10	1593.92	1428.29	61.72%	38.08%	+21.68	4-1
2003-10-19	New England Patriots	L 13-19	1615.60	1571.99	67.21%	32.61%	-25.02	4-2
2003-10-27	San Diego Chargers	W 26-10	1590.58	1403.99	74.44%	25.40%	+15.46	5-2
2003-11-02	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1606.04	1608.05	61.19%	38.61%	-22.79	5-3
2003-11-09	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-31	1583.25	1625.22	32.81%	67.00%	-24.47	5-4
2003-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 9-6	1558.78	1524.52	66.01%	33.80%	+8.91	6-4
2003-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1567.69	1448.76	75.96%	23.88%	+3.63	7-4
2003-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 40-21	1571.32	1538.57	42.88%	56.92%	+37.74	8-4
2003-12-07	@ New England Patriots	L 0-12	1609.06	1661.75	31.47%	68.35%	-16.59	8-5
2003-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-34	1592.47	1649.91	53.41%	46.39%	-21.50	8-6
2003-12-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1570.97	1502.79	47.93%	51.86%	+32.53	9-6
2003-12-28	New York Jets	W 23-21	1603.50	1489.21	75.47%	24.37%	+5.25	10-6
2003-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-25	1473.96	1526.89	31.44%	68.38%	+23.24	1-0
2003-09-14	Chicago Bears	W 24-13	1497.20	1439.60	68.96%	30.86%	+15.58	2-0
2003-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1512.78	1436.45	49.10%	50.69%	+24.39	3-0
2003-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-7	1537.17	1528.41	62.65%	37.15%	+29.91	4-0
2003-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 39-26	1567.08	1471.80	51.83%	47.97%	+26.31	5-0
2003-10-19	Denver Broncos	W 28-20	1593.39	1616.87	58.22%	41.58%	+17.90	6-0
2003-10-26	New York Giants	L 17-29	1611.29	1468.34	78.39%	21.47%	-41.27	6-1
2003-11-02	Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1570.02	1526.47	67.20%	32.62%	-17.70	6-2
2003-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-42	1552.32	1368.48	64.16%	35.64%	-36.50	6-3
2003-11-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 18-28	1515.82	1447.39	47.96%	51.83%	-23.08	6-4
2003-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1492.74	1365.35	76.84%	23.01%	+11.08	7-4
2003-11-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-48	1503.82	1590.02	27.47%	72.36%	-23.28	7-5
2003-12-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1480.54	1553.09	51.24%	48.56%	+38.38	8-5
2003-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1518.92	1443.63	48.95%	50.84%	-12.90	8-6
2003-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-20	1506.02	1645.07	41.75%	58.05%	+44.14	9-6
2003-12-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-18	1550.16	1271.85	75.50%	24.34%	-11.47	9-7
2003-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-31	1526.97	1486.49	43.97%	55.82%	-37.24	0-1
2003-09-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-10	1489.73	1534.53	32.46%	67.36%	+46.92	1-1
2003-09-21	New York Jets	W 23-16	1536.65	1492.08	67.33%	32.48%	+13.08	2-1
2003-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1549.73	1496.18	45.83%	53.96%	-12.07	2-2
2003-10-05	Tennessee Titans	W 38-30	1537.66	1572.56	56.61%	43.18%	+18.58	3-2
2003-10-12	New York Giants	W 17-6	1556.24	1501.37	68.62%	31.20%	+15.75	4-2
2003-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 19-13	1571.99	1615.60	32.61%	67.21%	+25.03	5-2
2003-10-26	Cleveland Browns	W 9-3	1597.02	1471.23	76.67%	23.17%	+8.63	6-2
2003-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-26	1605.65	1563.24	44.25%	55.55%	+16.90	7-2
2003-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 12-0	1622.55	1541.58	71.76%	28.07%	+14.80	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 23-20	1637.35	1360.32	75.36%	24.48%	+6.45	9-2
2003-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-34	1643.80	1626.11	40.77%	59.03%	+17.95	10-2
2003-12-07	Miami Dolphins	W 12-0	1661.75	1609.06	68.35%	31.47%	+16.59	11-2
2003-12-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-13	1678.34	1442.84	86.06%	13.84%	+7.88	12-2
2003-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 21-16	1686.22	1501.29	64.31%	35.50%	+12.08	13-2
2003-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 31-0	1698.30	1470.26	85.54%	14.35%	+12.15	14-2
2003-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-27	1503.60	1500.42	38.77%	61.03%	-24.33	0-1
2003-09-14	Houston Texans	W 31-10	1479.27	1402.83	71.22%	28.60%	+19.95	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 12-27	1499.22	1511.48	36.69%	63.12%	-21.62	1-2
2003-09-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-55	1477.60	1559.73	49.86%	49.93%	-44.22	1-3
2003-10-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-19	1433.38	1523.74	27.00%	72.84%	-10.07	1-4
2003-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 20-13	1423.31	1410.07	63.25%	36.55%	+14.72	2-4
2003-10-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 45-17	1438.03	1419.12	40.94%	58.86%	+47.36	3-4
2003-10-26	Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1485.39	1512.35	57.73%	42.06%	-15.20	3-5
2003-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1470.19	1638.11	19.14%	80.72%	+21.24	4-5
2003-11-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1491.43	1411.95	71.58%	28.25%	+7.45	5-5
2003-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-33	1498.88	1595.89	26.25%	73.59%	-14.40	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1484.48	1445.13	43.81%	55.98%	+17.02	6-6
2003-12-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-14	1501.50	1556.80	53.71%	46.08%	-21.61	6-7
2003-12-14	New York Giants	W 45-7	1479.89	1374.83	74.47%	25.36%	+23.79	7-7
2003-12-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 19-20	1503.68	1434.97	48.00%	51.79%	-7.30	7-8
2003-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-7	1496.38	1540.46	55.31%	44.48%	+16.58	8-8
2003-09-07	St. Louis Rams	W 23-13	1518.89	1510.90	62.55%	37.26%	+17.93	1-0
2003-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 32-35	1536.82	1417.00	76.05%	23.79%	-20.02	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1516.80	1512.20	38.97%	60.84%	+16.02	2-1
2003-10-05	Miami Dolphins	L 10-23	1532.82	1562.47	57.35%	42.44%	-31.45	2-2
2003-10-12	@ New England Patriots	L 6-17	1501.37	1556.24	31.20%	68.62%	-15.74	2-3
2003-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1485.63	1519.02	56.83%	42.97%	-17.29	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 29-17	1468.34	1611.29	21.47%	78.39%	+41.27	3-4
2003-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 31-28	1509.61	1485.07	41.73%	58.07%	+15.30	4-4
2003-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-27	1524.91	1357.10	80.71%	19.15%	-54.86	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-28	1470.05	1579.85	24.85%	74.99%	-16.04	4-6
2003-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-19	1454.01	1574.16	23.76%	76.09%	-8.86	4-7
2003-11-30	Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1445.15	1448.82	60.96%	38.84%	-38.22	4-8
2003-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-20	1406.93	1428.10	58.54%	41.25%	-32.10	4-9
2003-12-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-45	1374.83	1479.89	25.36%	74.47%	-23.79	4-10
2003-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-19	1351.04	1529.36	18.24%	81.63%	-11.10	4-11
2003-12-28	Carolina Panthers	L 24-37	1339.94	1493.14	39.78%	60.02%	-21.82	4-12
2003-09-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1535.92	1485.61	45.37%	54.43%	-11.95	0-1
2003-09-14	Miami Dolphins	L 10-21	1523.97	1510.83	63.24%	36.57%	-31.89	0-2
2003-09-21	@ New England Patriots	L 16-23	1492.08	1536.65	32.48%	67.33%	-13.08	0-3
2003-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-17	1479.00	1437.02	67.00%	32.81%	-33.79	0-4
2003-10-12	Buffalo Bills	W 30-3	1445.21	1519.03	51.05%	48.74%	+38.53	1-4
2003-10-19	@ Houston Texans	W 19-14	1483.74	1356.33	56.41%	43.38%	+14.76	2-4
2003-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1498.50	1536.30	33.34%	66.47%	-13.43	2-5
2003-11-02	New York Giants	L 28-31	1485.07	1509.61	58.07%	41.73%	-15.29	2-6
2003-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1469.78	1463.35	39.22%	60.59%	+15.95	3-6
2003-11-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-38	1485.73	1606.20	23.72%	76.12%	-9.55	3-7
2003-11-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-10	1476.18	1399.05	71.31%	28.52%	+7.52	4-7
2003-12-01	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1483.70	1666.02	35.85%	63.96%	+25.73	5-7
2003-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-17	1509.43	1487.04	41.42%	58.37%	-20.90	5-8
2003-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-0	1488.53	1457.66	65.57%	34.24%	+12.76	6-8
2003-12-20	New England Patriots	L 16-21	1501.29	1686.22	35.50%	64.31%	-12.08	6-9
2003-12-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-23	1489.21	1603.50	24.37%	75.47%	-5.25	6-10
2003-09-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-25	1569.61	1529.49	43.92%	55.88%	-14.95	0-1
2003-09-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1554.66	1394.70	80.00%	19.86%	+5.24	1-1
2003-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-31	1559.90	1588.36	34.55%	65.26%	-24.10	1-2
2003-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1535.80	1394.15	78.26%	21.59%	+5.69	2-2
2003-10-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1541.49	1394.49	59.16%	40.64%	-15.58	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-13	1525.91	1483.21	44.29%	55.51%	-16.50	2-4
2003-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1509.41	1638.34	43.17%	56.63%	-17.38	2-5
2003-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-23	1492.03	1341.54	59.65%	40.15%	-28.68	2-6
2003-11-09	New York Jets	L 24-27	1463.35	1469.78	60.59%	39.22%	-15.96	2-7
2003-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-18	1447.39	1515.82	51.83%	47.96%	+23.07	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1470.46	1659.87	17.31%	82.57%	-4.55	3-8
2003-11-30	Denver Broncos	L 8-22	1465.91	1527.56	52.80%	46.99%	-30.05	3-9
2003-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-27	1435.86	1431.14	38.98%	60.82%	-26.53	3-10
2003-12-14	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-12	1409.33	1584.74	36.76%	63.04%	+27.11	4-10
2003-12-22	Green Bay Packers	L 7-41	1436.44	1584.84	40.44%	59.36%	-35.88	4-11
2003-12-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1400.56	1345.68	46.02%	53.77%	-18.53	4-12
2003-09-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-17	1570.99	1594.98	58.15%	41.65%	-36.46	0-1
2003-09-14	New England Patriots	L 10-31	1534.53	1489.73	67.36%	32.46%	-46.93	0-2
2003-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1487.60	1542.69	31.17%	68.65%	+33.00	1-2
2003-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 27-25	1520.60	1508.25	63.13%	36.67%	+7.90	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-23	1528.50	1487.52	44.04%	55.75%	-9.48	2-3
2003-10-19	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1519.02	1485.63	42.97%	56.83%	+17.28	3-3
2003-10-26	New York Jets	W 24-17	1536.30	1498.50	66.47%	33.34%	+13.43	4-3
2003-11-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-16	1549.73	1371.76	63.38%	36.42%	+14.66	5-3
2003-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-14	1564.39	1544.17	41.12%	58.68%	+15.46	6-3
2003-11-16	New York Giants	W 28-10	1579.85	1470.05	74.99%	24.85%	+16.04	7-3
2003-11-23	New Orleans Saints	W 33-20	1595.89	1498.88	73.59%	26.25%	+14.40	8-3
2003-11-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 25-16	1610.29	1518.01	51.39%	48.40%	+22.09	9-3
2003-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 36-10	1632.38	1500.84	77.26%	22.59%	+17.53	10-3
2003-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-27	1649.91	1592.47	46.39%	53.41%	+21.49	11-3
2003-12-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-31	1671.40	1514.99	79.67%	20.19%	-20.97	11-4
2003-12-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1650.43	1405.52	71.78%	28.05%	+20.91	12-4
2003-09-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-15	1534.39	1492.38	67.01%	32.81%	+21.76	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-41	1556.15	1533.04	41.53%	58.27%	-28.95	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1527.20	1389.46	57.87%	41.93%	+16.88	2-1
2003-09-28	Tennessee Titans	L 13-30	1544.08	1533.10	62.95%	36.86%	-39.47	2-2
2003-10-05	Cleveland Browns	L 13-33	1504.61	1435.36	70.37%	29.45%	-47.84	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1456.77	1611.50	20.35%	79.51%	-5.36	2-4
2003-10-26	St. Louis Rams	L 21-33	1451.41	1564.34	45.44%	54.35%	-23.95	2-5
2003-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-23	1427.46	1539.47	24.61%	75.23%	-9.91	2-6
2003-11-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-15	1417.55	1373.13	67.31%	32.50%	+17.84	3-6
2003-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-30	1435.39	1556.66	23.64%	76.20%	-14.39	3-7
2003-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-6	1421.00	1476.41	31.13%	68.68%	+27.63	4-7
2003-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-24	1448.63	1477.19	57.51%	42.29%	-17.49	4-8
2003-12-07	Oakland Raiders	W 27-7	1431.14	1435.86	60.82%	38.98%	+26.52	5-8
2003-12-14	@ New York Jets	L 0-6	1457.66	1488.53	34.24%	65.57%	-12.76	5-9
2003-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 40-24	1444.90	1362.68	71.90%	27.93%	+17.00	6-9
2003-12-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-13	1461.90	1593.98	22.54%	77.31%	-5.94	6-10
2003-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-27	1477.45	1514.70	33.42%	66.40%	-18.33	0-1
2003-09-14	Denver Broncos	L 13-37	1459.12	1552.39	48.26%	51.54%	-35.96	0-2
2003-09-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1423.16	1497.65	50.96%	48.84%	-29.01	0-3
2003-09-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-34	1394.15	1535.80	21.59%	78.26%	-5.69	0-4
2003-10-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-27	1388.46	1415.34	34.76%	65.05%	-12.95	0-5
2003-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-20	1375.51	1499.71	23.34%	76.51%	+28.48	1-5
2003-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-26	1403.99	1590.58	25.40%	74.44%	-15.46	1-6
2003-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1388.53	1401.77	36.56%	63.25%	-20.05	1-7
2003-11-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-28	1368.48	1552.32	35.64%	64.16%	+36.50	2-7
2003-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 8-37	1404.98	1546.34	21.62%	78.23%	-17.72	2-8
2003-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-34	1387.26	1456.38	51.73%	48.06%	-20.81	2-9
2003-11-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1366.45	1664.43	22.32%	77.53%	-6.80	2-10
2003-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1359.65	1383.98	35.09%	64.72%	+26.04	3-10
2003-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 21-38	1385.69	1561.84	36.67%	63.14%	-23.01	3-11
2003-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-40	1362.68	1444.90	27.93%	71.90%	-17.00	3-12
2003-12-28	Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1345.68	1400.56	53.77%	46.02%	+18.53	4-12
2003-09-07	Chicago Bears	W 49-7	1520.19	1471.08	67.90%	31.92%	+31.48	1-0
2003-09-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-27	1551.67	1492.97	46.57%	53.23%	-12.27	1-1
2003-09-21	Cleveland Browns	L 12-13	1539.40	1453.75	72.30%	27.53%	-10.99	1-2
2003-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1528.41	1537.17	37.15%	62.65%	-29.92	1-3
2003-10-05	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1498.49	1407.07	72.96%	26.88%	+10.82	2-3
2003-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-20	1509.31	1541.19	34.11%	65.71%	-5.19	2-4
2003-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1504.12	1659.03	39.55%	60.26%	+37.78	3-4
2003-10-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-16	1541.90	1342.95	66.14%	33.68%	-17.42	3-5
2003-11-02	St. Louis Rams	W 30-10	1524.48	1588.29	52.49%	47.30%	+32.18	4-5
2003-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-14	1556.66	1435.39	76.20%	23.64%	+14.39	5-5
2003-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1571.05	1557.24	40.23%	59.57%	-19.36	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-44	1551.69	1526.68	41.79%	58.01%	-39.20	5-7
2003-12-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 50-14	1512.49	1305.10	84.01%	15.88%	+14.49	6-7
2003-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 38-41	1526.98	1475.82	45.49%	54.30%	-11.99	6-8
2003-12-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-28	1514.99	1671.40	20.19%	79.67%	+20.98	7-8
2003-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1535.97	1515.72	64.18%	35.63%	-25.82	7-9
2003-09-07	New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1500.42	1503.60	61.03%	38.77%	+24.33	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-0	1524.75	1414.92	53.91%	45.88%	+43.03	2-0
2003-09-21	St. Louis Rams	W 24-23	1567.78	1505.24	69.56%	30.26%	+4.60	3-0
2003-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-35	1572.38	1533.78	43.71%	56.09%	-31.19	3-1
2003-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-19	1541.19	1509.31	65.71%	34.11%	+5.19	4-1
2003-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1546.38	1395.35	79.16%	20.69%	+8.33	5-1
2003-10-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1554.71	1417.07	57.85%	41.94%	-15.24	5-2
2003-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-16	1539.47	1427.46	75.23%	24.61%	+9.91	6-2
2003-11-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1549.38	1434.68	54.61%	45.19%	-21.97	6-3
2003-11-16	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1527.41	1380.02	78.82%	21.04%	+14.67	7-3
2003-11-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 41-44	1542.08	1515.61	42.00%	57.80%	-11.07	7-4
2003-11-30	Cleveland Browns	W 34-7	1531.01	1448.78	71.90%	27.93%	+22.08	8-4
2003-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1553.09	1480.54	48.56%	51.24%	-38.38	8-5
2003-12-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 22-27	1514.71	1626.45	24.64%	75.20%	-8.38	8-6
2003-12-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-10	1506.33	1281.25	85.32%	14.57%	+9.39	9-6
2003-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1515.72	1535.97	35.63%	64.18%	+25.82	10-6
2003-09-07	@ New York Giants	L 13-23	1510.90	1518.89	37.26%	62.55%	-17.93	0-1
2003-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1492.97	1551.67	53.23%	46.57%	+12.27	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-24	1505.24	1567.78	30.26%	69.56%	-4.60	1-2
2003-09-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-13	1500.64	1396.23	74.40%	25.44%	+18.96	2-2
2003-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 36-0	1519.60	1445.49	70.95%	28.88%	+26.36	3-2
2003-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1545.96	1544.85	61.62%	38.19%	+18.38	4-2
2003-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-21	1564.34	1451.41	54.35%	45.44%	+23.95	5-2
2003-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-30	1588.29	1524.48	47.30%	52.49%	-32.18	5-3
2003-11-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-22	1556.11	1542.98	63.24%	36.57%	+18.45	6-3
2003-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-21	1574.56	1412.02	61.30%	38.50%	+8.29	7-3
2003-11-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 30-27	1582.85	1330.61	72.62%	27.21%	+7.17	8-3
2003-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 48-17	1590.02	1503.82	72.36%	27.47%	+23.27	9-3
2003-12-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-20	1613.29	1426.70	64.53%	35.28%	+13.16	10-3
2003-12-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-22	1626.45	1514.71	75.20%	24.64%	+8.38	11-3
2003-12-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1634.83	1487.81	78.78%	21.07%	+13.22	12-3
2003-12-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1648.05	1340.71	78.45%	21.40%	-37.71	12-4
2003-09-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-0	1594.98	1570.99	41.65%	58.15%	+36.46	1-0
2003-09-14	Carolina Panthers	L 9-12	1631.44	1476.69	79.51%	20.34%	-20.93	1-1
2003-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-10	1610.51	1533.15	49.25%	50.55%	+35.23	2-1
2003-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 35-38	1645.74	1603.95	66.98%	32.84%	-17.63	2-2
2003-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-13	1628.11	1500.36	56.46%	43.34%	+30.92	3-2
2003-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-24	1659.03	1504.12	60.26%	39.55%	-37.78	3-3
2003-10-26	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-0	1621.25	1536.96	72.14%	27.69%	+16.86	4-3
2003-11-02	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1638.11	1470.19	80.72%	19.14%	-21.25	4-4
2003-11-09	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-27	1616.86	1507.74	53.81%	45.98%	-14.17	4-5
2003-11-16	Green Bay Packers	L 13-20	1602.69	1528.71	70.93%	28.89%	-28.53	4-6
2003-11-24	New York Giants	W 19-13	1574.16	1454.01	76.09%	23.76%	+8.85	5-6
2003-11-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-17	1583.01	1391.53	65.17%	34.64%	-26.21	5-7
2003-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1556.80	1501.50	46.08%	53.71%	+21.61	6-7
2003-12-14	Houston Texans	W 16-3	1578.41	1342.12	86.11%	13.78%	+7.56	7-7
2003-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1585.97	1387.99	83.27%	16.61%	-17.90	7-8
2003-12-28	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-33	1568.07	1637.22	29.47%	70.36%	-20.05	7-9
2003-09-07	Oakland Raiders	W 25-20	1529.49	1569.61	55.88%	43.92%	+14.94	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-33	1544.43	1514.57	42.47%	57.33%	-32.95	1-1
2003-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 27-12	1511.48	1499.22	63.12%	36.69%	+21.62	2-1
2003-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1533.10	1544.08	36.86%	62.95%	+39.46	3-1
2003-10-05	@ New England Patriots	L 30-38	1572.56	1537.66	43.18%	56.61%	-18.58	3-2
2003-10-12	Houston Texans	W 38-17	1553.98	1368.63	82.23%	17.64%	+12.30	4-2
2003-10-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-17	1566.28	1552.90	40.17%	59.63%	+40.55	5-2
2003-10-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-17	1606.83	1406.61	66.30%	33.51%	+18.39	6-2
2003-11-09	Miami Dolphins	W 31-7	1625.22	1583.25	67.00%	32.81%	+24.46	7-2
2003-11-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 10-3	1649.68	1404.35	86.72%	13.18%	+5.30	8-2
2003-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-31	1654.98	1404.51	72.42%	27.41%	+11.04	9-2
2003-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1666.02	1483.70	63.96%	35.85%	-25.73	9-3
2003-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-29	1640.29	1608.16	65.74%	34.07%	-14.14	9-4
2003-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 28-26	1626.15	1507.94	75.88%	23.96%	+5.16	10-4
2003-12-21	@ Houston Texans	W 27-24	1631.31	1334.56	77.41%	22.44%	+5.91	11-4
2003-12-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-13	1637.22	1568.07	70.36%	29.47%	+20.06	12-4
2003-09-04	New York Jets	W 16-13	1485.61	1535.92	54.43%	45.37%	+11.96	1-0
2003-09-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-31	1497.57	1547.78	31.78%	68.04%	+14.63	2-0
2003-09-21	New York Giants	L 21-24	1512.20	1516.80	60.84%	38.97%	-16.02	2-1
2003-09-28	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1496.18	1549.73	53.96%	45.83%	+12.07	3-1
2003-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-27	1508.25	1520.60	36.67%	63.13%	-7.89	3-2
2003-10-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-35	1500.36	1628.11	43.34%	56.46%	-30.93	3-3
2003-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1469.43	1480.51	36.84%	62.96%	-23.11	3-4
2003-11-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-21	1446.32	1520.11	28.91%	70.91%	-11.64	3-5
2003-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1434.68	1549.38	45.19%	54.61%	+21.97	4-5
2003-11-16	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1456.65	1521.92	29.93%	69.89%	-7.89	4-6
2003-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1448.76	1567.69	23.88%	75.96%	-3.63	4-7
2003-11-30	New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1445.13	1484.48	55.98%	43.81%	-17.03	4-8
2003-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 20-7	1428.10	1406.93	41.25%	58.54%	+32.10	5-8
2003-12-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-27	1460.20	1483.31	58.27%	41.53%	-46.05	5-9
2003-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1414.15	1456.53	32.76%	67.05%	-8.63	5-10
2003-12-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1405.52	1650.43	28.05%	71.78%	-20.92	5-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2004-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1599.92	1657.28	53.52%	46.48%	-14.07	0-1
2004-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-10	1514.96	1523.88	60.35%	39.65%	+26.24	1-0
2004-01-10	@ St. Louis Rams	W 29-23	1541.20	1610.34	29.54%	70.46%	+26.20	2-0
2004-01-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-3	1567.40	1681.13	24.49%	75.51%	+38.02	3-0
2004-02-01	@ New England Patriots	L 29-32	1605.42	1733.95	32.30%	67.70%	-8.50	3-1
2004-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-29	1523.88	1514.96	39.65%	60.35%	-26.24	0-1
2004-01-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1602.83	1603.75	38.31%	61.69%	-32.38	0-1
2004-01-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1653.21	1541.54	75.29%	24.71%	+9.19	1-0
2004-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1662.40	1671.34	37.22%	62.78%	-9.79	1-1
2004-01-04	Denver Broncos	W 41-10	1603.75	1602.83	61.69%	38.31%	+32.37	1-0
2004-01-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-31	1636.12	1618.78	40.82%	59.18%	+23.77	2-0
2004-01-18	@ New England Patriots	L 14-24	1659.89	1719.20	30.73%	69.27%	-14.75	2-1
2004-01-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-38	1618.78	1636.12	59.18%	40.82%	-23.77	0-1
2004-01-10	Tennessee Titans	W 17-14	1710.45	1671.35	66.74%	33.26%	+8.75	1-0
2004-01-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-14	1719.20	1659.89	69.27%	30.73%	+14.75	2-0
2004-02-01	Carolina Panthers	W 32-29	1733.95	1605.42	67.70%	32.30%	+8.49	3-0
2004-01-11	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1671.34	1662.40	62.78%	37.22%	+9.79	1-0
2004-01-18	Carolina Panthers	L 3-14	1681.13	1567.40	75.51%	24.49%	-38.02	1-1
2004-01-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-33	1541.54	1653.21	24.71%	75.29%	-9.18	0-1
2004-01-10	Carolina Panthers	L 23-29	1610.34	1541.20	70.46%	29.54%	-26.19	0-1
2004-01-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 20-17	1657.28	1599.92	46.48%	53.52%	+14.07	1-0
2004-01-10	@ New England Patriots	L 14-17	1671.35	1710.45	33.26%	66.74%	-8.75	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2003-12-20	16.61%	Atlanta Falcons	1387.99	30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1585.97	28
2	2003-11-02	19.14%	New Orleans Saints	1470.19	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1638.11	14
3	2003-11-09	19.15%	Atlanta Falcons	1357.10	27	@ New York Giants	1524.91	7
4	2003-11-23	19.83%	Chicago Bears	1403.74	19	@ Denver Broncos	1564.05	10
5	2003-12-21	20.19%	San Francisco 49ers	1514.99	31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1671.40	28
6	2003-09-14	20.34%	Carolina Panthers	1476.69	12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1631.44	9
7	2003-12-28	21.40%	@ Detroit Lions	1340.71	30	St. Louis Rams	1648.05	20
8	2003-10-26	21.47%	New York Giants	1468.34	29	@ Minnesota Vikings	1611.29	17
9	2003-11-16	22.54%	Houston Texans	1343.70	12	@ Buffalo Bills	1475.80	10
10	2003-09-07	22.60%	Houston Texans	1391.09	21	@ Miami Dolphins	1522.57	20
11	2003-10-19	23.34%	San Diego Chargers	1375.51	26	@ Cleveland Browns	1499.71	20
12	2003-09-15	23.79%	Dallas Cowboys	1417.00	35	@ New York Giants	1536.82	32
13	2003-12-28	24.34%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1271.85	18	Minnesota Vikings	1550.16	17
14	2004-01-18 *	24.49%	Carolina Panthers	1567.40	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1681.13	3
15	2003-12-28	25.68%	Cleveland Browns	1372.41	22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1474.59	14
16	2003-09-28	26.79%	Cincinnati Bengals	1372.58	21	@ Cleveland Browns	1464.74	14
17	2003-11-16	27.13%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1431.66	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1684.58	19
18	2003-10-12	27.29%	Carolina Panthers	1533.80	23	@ Indianapolis Colts	1621.59	20
19	2003-11-09	27.33%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1379.71	28	Indianapolis Colts	1630.84	23
20	2003-09-21	27.53%	Cleveland Browns	1453.75	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1539.40	12
21	2003-11-16	28.89%	Green Bay Packers	1528.71	20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1602.69	13
22	2003-10-05	29.45%	Cleveland Browns	1435.36	33	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1504.61	13
23	2004-01-10 *	29.54%	Carolina Panthers	1541.20	29	@ St. Louis Rams	1610.34	23
24	2003-11-27	30.74%	@ Detroit Lions	1354.28	22	Green Bay Packers	1576.60	14
25	2003-11-23	31.13%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1421.00	13	@ Cleveland Browns	1476.41	6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2003-11-09	54.86	Atlanta Falcons	27	1357.10	19.15%	@ New York Giants	7	1524.91	80.71%
2	2003-10-05	47.85	Cleveland Browns	33	1435.36	29.45%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1504.61	70.37%
3	2003-10-19	47.36	New Orleans Saints	45	1438.03	40.94%	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1419.12	58.86%
4	2003-09-14	46.93	New England Patriots	31	1489.73	32.46%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1534.53	67.36%
5	2003-12-14	46.05	Dallas Cowboys	27	1483.31	41.53%	@ Washington Redskins	0	1460.20	58.27%
6	2003-09-28	44.22	Indianapolis Colts	55	1559.73	49.93%	@ New Orleans Saints	21	1477.60	49.86%
7	2003-12-20	44.14	@ Minnesota Vikings	45	1506.02	41.75%	Kansas City Chiefs	20	1645.07	58.05%
8	2003-09-14	43.03	Seattle Seahawks	38	1524.75	53.91%	@ Arizona Cardinals	0	1414.92	45.88%
9	2003-10-26	41.27	New York Giants	29	1468.34	21.47%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1611.29	78.39%
10	2003-10-19	40.55	Tennessee Titans	37	1566.28	40.17%	@ Carolina Panthers	17	1552.90	59.63%
11	2003-10-19	39.97	Dallas Cowboys	38	1497.00	52.61%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1396.25	47.18%
12	2003-09-28	39.47	Tennessee Titans	30	1533.10	36.86%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1544.08	62.95%
13	2003-11-30	39.20	@ Baltimore Ravens	44	1526.68	58.01%	San Francisco 49ers	6	1551.69	41.79%
14	2003-09-14	38.70	Buffalo Bills	38	1523.74	44.26%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	17	1481.20	55.53%
15	2003-10-12	38.53	@ New York Jets	30	1445.21	51.05%	Buffalo Bills	3	1519.03	48.74%
16	2003-12-07	38.38	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1480.54	51.24%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1553.09	48.56%
17	2003-11-30	38.22	Buffalo Bills	24	1448.82	38.84%	@ New York Giants	7	1445.15	60.96%
18	2004-01-18 *	38.02	Carolina Panthers	14	1567.40	24.49%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1681.13	75.51%
19	2003-10-19	37.78	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1504.12	39.55%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	1659.03	60.26%
20	2003-12-21	37.78	Denver Broncos	31	1597.53	33.41%	@ Indianapolis Colts	17	1634.83	66.40%
21	2003-11-27	37.74	Miami Dolphins	40	1571.32	42.88%	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1538.57	56.92%
22	2003-12-28	37.71	@ Detroit Lions	30	1340.71	21.40%	St. Louis Rams	20	1648.05	78.45%
23	2003-09-07	37.25	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1486.49	55.82%	New England Patriots	0	1526.97	43.97%
24	2003-11-09	36.50	@ San Diego Chargers	42	1368.48	35.64%	Minnesota Vikings	28	1552.32	64.16%
25	2003-11-23	36.49	Chicago Bears	19	1403.74	19.83%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1564.05	80.03%