2002 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Oakland Raiders

5th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1983

Biggest Overachiever

Tennessee Titans

2.50 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.50 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Bears

3.51 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.51 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Jets Division	9	7	.562	—	359	336	+23	7.75	+1.25
2	Miami Dolphins	9	7	.562	—	378	301	+77	9.00	0.00
3	New England Patriots	9	7	.562	—	381	346	+35	9.69	-0.69
4	Buffalo Bills	8	8	.500	1	379	397	-18	6.80	+1.20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	5	1	.656	—	390	345	+45	9.76	+0.74
2	Cleveland Browns Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	1.5	344	320	+24	7.95	+1.05
3	Baltimore Ravens	7	9	0	.438	3.5	316	354	-38	8.62	-1.62
4	Cincinnati Bengals	2	14	0	.125	8.5	279	456	-177	5.11	-3.11

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tennessee Titans Division	11	5	.688	—	367	324	+43	8.50	+2.50
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	349	313	+36	8.76	+1.24
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	6	10	.375	5	328	315	+13	8.79	-2.79
4	Houston Texans	4	12	.250	7	213	356	-143	3.49	+0.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	11	5	.688	—	450	304	+146	9.68	+1.32
2	Denver Broncos	9	7	.562	2	392	344	+48	8.36	+0.64
3	Kansas City Chiefs	8	8	.500	3	467	399	+68	7.74	+0.26
4	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	3	333	367	-34	7.59	+0.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	12	4	.750	—	415	241	+174	11.12	+0.88
2	New York Giants Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	320	279	+41	8.13	+1.87
3	Washington Redskins	7	9	.438	5	307	365	-58	7.69	-0.69
4	Dallas Cowboys	5	11	.312	7	217	329	-112	6.44	-1.44

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	12	4	.750	—	398	328	+70	10.31	+1.69
2	Minnesota Vikings	6	10	.375	6	390	442	-52	6.04	-0.04
3	Chicago Bears	4	12	.250	8	281	379	-98	7.51	-3.51
4	Detroit Lions	3	13	.188	9	306	451	-145	5.48	-2.48

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	12	4	0	.750	—	346	196	+150	10.48	+1.52
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	9	6	1	.594	2.5	402	314	+88	7.98	+1.52
3	New Orleans Saints	9	7	0	.562	3	432	388	+44	8.92	+0.08
4	Carolina Panthers	7	9	0	.438	5	258	302	-44	6.56	+0.44

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	6	.625	—	367	351	+16	9.43	+0.57
2	St. Louis Rams	7	9	.438	3	316	369	-53	9.13	-2.13
3	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	.438	3	355	369	-14	6.75	+0.25
4	Arizona Cardinals	5	11	.312	5	262	417	-155	6.44	-1.44

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 41

Indianapolis Colts 0

Jan 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 36

Cleveland Browns 33

Jan 5

Divisional Round

Tennessee Titans 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 31

Jan 11

Oakland Raiders 30

New York Jets 10

Jan 12

Conference Championship

Oakland Raiders 41

Tennessee Titans 24

Jan 19

NFC

Wild Card Round

Atlanta Falcons 27

Green Bay Packers 7

Jan 4

San Francisco 49ers 39

New York Giants 38

Jan 5

Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles 20

Atlanta Falcons 6

Jan 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

San Francisco 49ers 6

Jan 12

Conference Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Philadelphia Eagles 10

Jan 19

Super Bowl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48

Oakland Raiders 21

Jan 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1686	12	11.12	+0.88	78.36%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1671	11	9.68	+1.32	82.90%	2	6	8	10	11	13	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1650	12	10.48	+1.52	87.33%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1613	12	10.31	+1.69	89.42%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1603	11	8.50	+2.50	94.82%	2	5	7	8	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1596	9	7.75	+1.25	81.74%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1595	10.5	9.76	+0.74	66.07%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1567	10	9.43	+0.57	72.01%	2	6	8	9	11	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1565	10	8.13	+1.87	89.65%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1559	9	9.69	-0.69	45.61%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1551	9	9.00	0.00	60.45%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1550	9	8.36	+0.64	72.43%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1537	8	7.74	+0.26	66.14%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1528	9.5	7.98	+1.52	79.51%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1525	10	8.76	+1.24	82.75%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1513	9	8.92	+0.08	62.32%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1513	7	9.13	-2.13	19.80%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1505	7	6.75	+0.25	65.71%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1504	9	7.95	+1.05	79.13%	2	5	7	8	9	11	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1476	8	6.80	+1.20	82.61%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1474	7	8.62	-1.62	28.17%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1460	7	7.69	-0.69	47.04%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1457	6	8.79	-2.79	12.09%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1445	8	7.59	+0.41	69.27%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1438	7	6.56	+0.44	70.55%	0	4	5	6	8	10	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1436	6	6.04	-0.04	61.11%	1	3	5	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1406	4	7.51	-3.51	5.02%	0	4	6	7	9	11	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1370	5	6.44	-1.44	31.99%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1353	5	6.44	-1.44	31.85%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1318	3	5.48	-2.48	14.88%	0	3	4	5	7	9	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1290	2	5.11	-3.11	7.15%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1248	4	3.49	+0.51	75.65%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-1-1 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	1-3 (2.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-1-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-4 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tennessee Titans	11	8.50	+2.50
2	New York Giants	10	8.13	+1.87
3	Green Bay Packers	12	10.31	+1.69
4	Atlanta Falcons	9.5	7.98	+1.52
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	10.48	+1.52

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	4	7.51	-3.51
2	Cincinnati Bengals	2	5.11	-3.11
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	6	8.79	-2.79
4	Detroit Lions	3	5.48	-2.48
5	St. Louis Rams	7	9.13	-2.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	7	Sep 22 – Nov 10	1 in 29
2	Atlanta Falcons	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 27
3	Tennessee Titans	5	Oct 13 – Nov 17	1 in 27
4	New York Giants	4	Dec 8 – Dec 28	1 in 24
5	Indianapolis Colts	4	Nov 10 – Dec 1	1 in 24

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	8	Sep 22 – Nov 18	1 in 277
2	St. Louis Rams	5	Sep 8 – Oct 6	1 in 102
3	New Orleans Saints	3	Dec 15 – Dec 29	1 in 80
4	Carolina Panthers	8	Sep 29 – Nov 24	1 in 56
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 55

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	47.38%	29.47%	16.17%	6.98%
Miami Dolphins	32.84%	32.99%	21.87%	12.30%
New York Jets	13.97%	23.41%	34.18%	28.44%
Buffalo Bills	5.81%	14.13%	27.78%	52.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	54.40%	29.21%	13.82%	2.57%
Baltimore Ravens	27.44%	35.78%	28.52%	8.26%
Cleveland Browns	17.06%	29.64%	39.86%	13.44%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.10%	5.37%	17.80%	75.73%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	34.59%	33.86%	29.72%	1.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars	35.49%	32.30%	30.15%	2.06%
Tennessee Titans	29.74%	32.99%	34.73%	2.54%
Houston Texans	0.18%	0.85%	5.40%	93.57%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	50.05%	26.20%	15.50%	8.25%
Denver Broncos	22.47%	28.55%	26.58%	22.40%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.47%	23.71%	29.09%	32.73%
San Diego Chargers	13.01%	21.54%	28.83%	36.62%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	77.94%	16.22%	4.76%	1.08%
New York Giants	11.42%	37.84%	31.57%	19.17%
Washington Redskins	8.21%	31.34%	35.46%	24.99%
Dallas Cowboys	2.43%	14.60%	28.21%	54.76%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	78.49%	16.79%	3.80%	0.92%
Chicago Bears	14.87%	46.33%	26.78%	12.02%
Minnesota Vikings	3.83%	21.54%	38.82%	35.81%
Detroit Lions	2.81%	15.34%	30.60%	51.25%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	61.69%	25.09%	10.38%	2.84%
New Orleans Saints	23.28%	37.83%	26.24%	12.65%
Atlanta Falcons	12.07%	25.89%	37.34%	24.70%
Carolina Panthers	2.96%	11.19%	26.04%	59.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	47.93%	31.94%	14.30%	5.83%
St. Louis Rams	39.05%	36.05%	17.19%	7.71%
Seattle Seahawks	7.37%	17.78%	35.67%	39.18%
Arizona Cardinals	5.65%	14.23%	32.84%	47.28%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.48%	13.30%	11.93%	10.60%	9.27%	7.72%	6.79%	5.81%	4.61%	3.70%	3.55%	2.52%	2.06%	1.06%	0.49%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	16.81%	13.19%	10.73%	9.52%	8.25%	7.37%	6.60%	5.68%	5.30%	4.39%	3.59%	3.04%	2.48%	1.87%	0.99%	0.19%
New England Patriots	15.88%	12.74%	11.58%	9.96%	8.19%	7.70%	6.85%	5.59%	5.51%	4.29%	3.40%	2.98%	2.49%	1.76%	0.89%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	9.28%	8.72%	8.69%	8.86%	8.90%	8.05%	7.99%	6.86%	6.45%	6.16%	5.00%	4.80%	4.30%	3.63%	1.85%	0.46%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.84%	7.96%	8.64%	8.85%	8.14%	8.02%	7.94%	7.86%	7.04%	7.06%	6.49%	6.17%	4.11%	2.84%	1.41%	0.63%
Indianapolis Colts	6.68%	8.28%	7.98%	8.21%	8.27%	8.00%	8.17%	8.33%	7.55%	7.01%	6.73%	6.34%	4.09%	2.59%	1.22%	0.55%
Baltimore Ravens	6.15%	7.34%	7.83%	7.05%	7.59%	8.74%	8.15%	8.15%	7.46%	6.76%	6.58%	6.17%	4.93%	3.75%	2.45%	0.90%
Tennessee Titans	5.51%	6.79%	6.90%	7.56%	7.74%	7.85%	7.97%	8.17%	7.65%	7.75%	7.49%	7.20%	5.34%	3.30%	1.90%	0.88%
Denver Broncos	4.98%	5.99%	6.53%	6.49%	7.14%	7.57%	7.66%	7.83%	7.49%	7.40%	7.07%	6.75%	7.18%	5.61%	3.32%	0.99%
Cleveland Browns	3.05%	4.03%	5.08%	5.85%	6.25%	6.79%	7.02%	7.35%	8.27%	8.30%	9.40%	8.80%	7.42%	6.06%	4.99%	1.34%
New York Jets	2.72%	3.87%	4.14%	4.92%	5.75%	5.56%	6.36%	7.47%	7.86%	8.65%	8.87%	8.62%	8.66%	8.51%	6.09%	1.95%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.64%	3.48%	4.15%	5.10%	5.65%	6.32%	6.40%	7.18%	7.68%	8.16%	8.73%	8.57%	10.00%	8.28%	5.88%	1.78%
San Diego Chargers	2.19%	2.87%	4.04%	4.25%	5.31%	5.64%	6.13%	6.92%	7.46%	8.51%	8.53%	8.94%	10.03%	9.91%	7.04%	2.23%
Buffalo Bills	0.73%	1.31%	1.54%	2.28%	2.94%	3.73%	4.54%	4.88%	6.64%	7.66%	8.66%	10.63%	13.65%	14.86%	10.87%	5.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.13%	0.22%	0.45%	0.59%	0.85%	1.26%	1.71%	2.61%	3.61%	4.85%	6.76%	9.48%	17.27%	28.29%	21.86%
Houston Texans	—	—	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.09%	0.17%	0.21%	0.42%	0.59%	1.06%	1.71%	3.78%	8.70%	22.32%	60.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	31.57%	21.87%	14.11%	10.67%	6.70%	4.83%	3.29%	2.12%	1.81%	1.15%	0.85%	0.50%	0.31%	0.14%	0.04%	0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20.62%	17.83%	15.69%	11.66%	8.67%	7.25%	4.82%	3.81%	3.09%	2.29%	1.59%	1.26%	0.64%	0.47%	0.21%	0.10%
Green Bay Packers	16.53%	18.25%	16.80%	13.65%	9.31%	7.12%	5.42%	4.08%	2.76%	2.02%	1.45%	1.10%	0.73%	0.37%	0.31%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	9.36%	11.01%	11.69%	11.74%	10.37%	9.11%	8.76%	6.56%	5.39%	4.31%	3.75%	2.43%	2.21%	1.55%	1.07%	0.69%
St. Louis Rams	7.00%	8.91%	9.84%	10.51%	11.04%	9.96%	9.24%	7.67%	6.19%	5.01%	4.25%	3.66%	2.66%	2.04%	1.31%	0.71%
New Orleans Saints	5.66%	6.88%	8.33%	9.73%	10.83%	9.66%	8.92%	7.96%	7.48%	6.12%	5.54%	4.29%	3.17%	2.60%	1.84%	0.99%
New York Giants	2.46%	3.52%	5.16%	6.12%	8.34%	8.70%	9.66%	9.30%	8.47%	8.11%	7.07%	6.60%	5.50%	4.78%	3.69%	2.52%
Atlanta Falcons	2.01%	3.36%	4.57%	5.90%	7.17%	8.32%	8.48%	8.60%	9.06%	8.51%	8.09%	7.34%	6.37%	5.15%	4.43%	2.64%
Washington Redskins	1.76%	2.29%	3.84%	5.10%	6.40%	7.82%	7.89%	8.13%	8.63%	9.24%	8.34%	7.82%	7.06%	6.46%	5.93%	3.29%
Chicago Bears	1.31%	2.31%	3.63%	4.56%	6.24%	6.94%	8.30%	9.97%	9.16%	8.68%	7.99%	8.76%	7.09%	6.10%	4.97%	3.99%
Seattle Seahawks	0.49%	1.10%	1.79%	2.72%	3.65%	4.75%	5.34%	6.42%	7.64%	8.40%	9.07%	9.58%	9.42%	9.79%	10.42%	9.42%
Carolina Panthers	0.41%	0.79%	1.18%	1.65%	2.77%	3.74%	4.56%	5.41%	6.76%	7.59%	8.96%	9.82%	11.59%	12.70%	12.14%	9.93%
Arizona Cardinals	0.33%	0.62%	1.32%	2.05%	2.77%	3.86%	4.17%	5.45%	6.41%	8.53%	9.05%	9.18%	11.23%	11.38%	12.17%	11.48%
Dallas Cowboys	0.32%	0.59%	0.90%	1.57%	2.77%	3.50%	4.80%	5.60%	6.44%	8.12%	8.53%	8.91%	10.36%	12.61%	12.91%	12.07%
Minnesota Vikings	0.13%	0.45%	0.70%	1.44%	1.81%	2.65%	3.94%	5.15%	6.28%	6.69%	8.82%	9.98%	11.33%	11.87%	12.64%	16.12%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.22%	0.45%	0.93%	1.16%	1.79%	2.41%	3.77%	4.43%	5.23%	6.65%	8.77%	10.33%	11.99%	15.92%	25.91%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Philadelphia Eagles	21.66%	13.60%	11.85%	8.65%	7.09%	5.92%	5.19%	4.77%	2.99%	3.07%	2.43%	2.31%	1.79%	1.45%	1.23%	1.09%	0.96%	0.87%	0.67%	0.58%	0.44%	0.27%	0.30%	0.26%	0.20%	0.15%	0.04%	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.65%	9.72%	10.23%	7.45%	8.15%	6.84%	5.31%	5.00%	4.29%	4.19%	3.24%	3.50%	2.53%	2.15%	1.95%	2.10%	1.48%	1.51%	1.08%	1.09%	0.92%	0.77%	0.68%	0.73%	0.34%	0.36%	0.19%	0.25%	0.16%	0.08%	0.04%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	10.60%	9.22%	9.34%	8.60%	7.61%	7.56%	5.97%	5.80%	4.05%	5.04%	3.56%	3.38%	2.71%	2.74%	2.02%	2.31%	1.47%	1.33%	1.00%	1.10%	0.93%	0.81%	0.68%	0.58%	0.43%	0.35%	0.24%	0.29%	0.11%	0.11%	0.06%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.45%	8.08%	6.54%	6.91%	6.05%	6.31%	5.78%	5.66%	5.13%	4.49%	4.41%	3.78%	3.70%	3.15%	2.96%	2.84%	2.41%	2.31%	2.20%	1.59%	1.70%	1.71%	1.13%	1.30%	0.98%	0.88%	0.49%	0.46%	0.22%	0.26%	0.10%	0.02%
New England Patriots	6.51%	7.44%	6.85%	6.45%	5.91%	6.05%	5.81%	4.88%	4.72%	3.78%	4.28%	3.97%	3.64%	3.34%	3.12%	2.88%	2.83%	2.50%	2.42%	1.74%	1.72%	1.65%	1.44%	1.41%	1.17%	1.06%	0.78%	0.64%	0.36%	0.41%	0.19%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	6.71%	8.14%	6.78%	6.59%	6.09%	5.51%	4.72%	5.45%	4.60%	4.02%	4.28%	3.44%	3.82%	3.11%	2.85%	2.84%	2.81%	2.58%	2.37%	2.07%	1.74%	1.65%	1.54%	1.28%	1.28%	0.91%	0.87%	0.80%	0.48%	0.43%	0.14%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	5.54%	5.30%	5.95%	5.07%	5.88%	5.40%	5.54%	5.17%	4.83%	4.91%	5.19%	3.93%	3.98%	4.22%	3.56%	3.10%	2.63%	2.95%	2.24%	2.34%	2.14%	1.67%	1.52%	1.35%	1.19%	1.16%	0.97%	0.70%	0.56%	0.45%	0.38%	0.18%
St. Louis Rams	3.89%	4.54%	4.70%	4.42%	5.12%	4.38%	4.66%	5.04%	5.23%	4.75%	4.53%	5.13%	4.12%	4.38%	4.31%	3.93%	3.05%	3.08%	2.70%	2.67%	2.36%	2.05%	2.06%	1.78%	1.61%	1.42%	1.23%	1.04%	0.70%	0.56%	0.38%	0.18%
Miami Dolphins	3.11%	4.93%	4.14%	4.66%	4.11%	4.89%	4.57%	4.89%	5.00%	4.37%	4.23%	4.34%	4.39%	3.71%	3.63%	3.31%	3.58%	3.29%	3.14%	2.71%	2.76%	2.32%	2.40%	2.09%	2.05%	1.74%	1.61%	1.73%	1.03%	0.71%	0.34%	0.22%
New Orleans Saints	3.13%	3.24%	3.67%	3.77%	4.38%	4.08%	4.93%	4.41%	5.23%	5.24%	4.35%	4.53%	4.10%	4.53%	3.98%	3.87%	3.45%	3.84%	2.76%	3.22%	3.12%	2.88%	2.30%	2.33%	1.71%	1.63%	1.48%	1.27%	1.06%	0.75%	0.53%	0.23%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.82%	3.11%	3.62%	4.27%	4.27%	4.74%	4.26%	4.67%	4.34%	4.27%	4.16%	4.13%	3.96%	4.27%	4.08%	3.96%	3.61%	3.76%	3.54%	3.22%	3.55%	2.85%	2.57%	2.79%	2.10%	2.17%	1.34%	1.28%	0.96%	0.70%	0.41%	0.22%
Indianapolis Colts	2.21%	3.37%	3.41%	4.64%	3.93%	4.41%	3.93%	4.55%	4.35%	4.27%	4.61%	4.29%	4.60%	3.97%	4.05%	4.17%	3.90%	3.62%	3.80%	3.24%	3.10%	3.30%	2.91%	2.81%	2.08%	2.12%	1.20%	1.09%	0.75%	0.67%	0.48%	0.17%
Baltimore Ravens	2.24%	3.04%	3.47%	3.90%	3.97%	3.73%	4.05%	3.90%	4.07%	3.98%	4.34%	4.36%	4.40%	4.13%	4.35%	4.06%	3.95%	3.56%	3.54%	3.25%	2.94%	3.39%	2.96%	2.54%	2.48%	2.54%	1.68%	1.83%	1.28%	1.09%	0.55%	0.43%
Tennessee Titans	1.89%	2.63%	3.24%	3.53%	3.27%	3.60%	4.23%	3.96%	3.82%	4.23%	4.25%	3.91%	4.26%	4.09%	4.09%	4.22%	4.09%	3.92%	3.94%	3.92%	3.53%	3.60%	2.99%	3.27%	2.41%	2.59%	1.62%	1.76%	1.08%	1.05%	0.65%	0.36%
Denver Broncos	1.58%	2.46%	2.52%	3.11%	3.61%	3.40%	3.79%	3.44%	4.00%	3.72%	3.77%	3.91%	4.33%	3.81%	4.47%	3.28%	4.36%	3.65%	4.16%	3.19%	3.49%	3.23%	3.69%	3.25%	3.54%	2.84%	2.47%	2.46%	1.62%	1.51%	0.88%	0.46%
New York Giants	1.31%	1.43%	1.86%	2.35%	2.58%	2.67%	2.74%	3.30%	3.76%	4.08%	3.55%	4.67%	4.37%	4.99%	4.01%	4.50%	4.24%	4.02%	4.06%	4.23%	3.89%	3.69%	3.21%	3.52%	3.11%	2.82%	2.70%	2.38%	2.45%	1.55%	1.45%	0.51%
Atlanta Falcons	0.98%	1.36%	1.51%	1.86%	2.44%	2.55%	2.89%	3.07%	3.11%	3.55%	3.56%	4.23%	4.14%	4.11%	4.25%	4.46%	4.23%	4.50%	4.14%	4.12%	3.85%	4.21%	4.14%	3.39%	3.42%	3.38%	3.10%	2.60%	2.67%	2.04%	1.55%	0.59%
Cleveland Browns	1.04%	1.46%	1.43%	2.25%	2.47%	2.90%	3.10%	3.07%	3.36%	3.37%	3.64%	3.36%	3.82%	3.62%	3.77%	3.79%	4.29%	4.21%	4.39%	3.89%	4.59%	4.36%	4.14%	4.24%	3.59%	3.55%	3.37%	2.63%	2.46%	2.13%	1.05%	0.66%
New York Jets	0.80%	1.31%	1.74%	2.02%	2.23%	2.25%	2.54%	2.65%	3.07%	3.03%	2.92%	2.90%	3.40%	3.25%	3.95%	3.81%	4.36%	4.14%	4.44%	3.79%	4.56%	4.32%	4.47%	4.08%	4.17%	3.99%	3.71%	3.90%	2.75%	2.87%	1.45%	1.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.74%	1.33%	1.37%	1.93%	2.10%	2.45%	2.48%	2.66%	3.02%	2.92%	3.40%	3.41%	3.43%	3.49%	3.74%	3.45%	4.54%	3.86%	4.42%	3.97%	4.29%	3.98%	4.45%	4.14%	4.96%	3.94%	3.95%	3.73%	2.87%	2.63%	1.38%	0.97%
Washington Redskins	0.89%	0.95%	1.41%	1.44%	1.71%	1.84%	2.70%	2.34%	3.18%	3.26%	3.49%	3.63%	3.75%	3.99%	3.60%	3.92%	4.18%	4.57%	4.15%	4.96%	3.91%	4.61%	3.52%	4.67%	3.35%	3.98%	3.62%	3.37%	3.62%	2.65%	1.92%	0.82%
Chicago Bears	0.59%	0.76%	1.31%	1.33%	1.56%	1.89%	2.14%	2.32%	2.76%	3.17%	3.06%	3.55%	3.36%	4.20%	4.10%	4.77%	3.74%	4.91%	4.00%	5.13%	3.73%	4.77%	4.17%	4.34%	4.11%	4.13%	3.64%	3.47%	3.21%	2.63%	2.13%	1.02%
San Diego Chargers	0.66%	1.15%	1.01%	1.59%	1.76%	2.19%	2.36%	2.40%	2.72%	2.98%	3.10%	2.87%	3.40%	3.29%	3.51%	3.62%	3.86%	3.82%	4.59%	4.21%	4.35%	4.21%	4.74%	4.39%	4.76%	4.23%	4.54%	4.38%	3.43%	3.19%	1.65%	1.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.21%	0.37%	0.54%	0.70%	0.73%	0.84%	1.30%	1.29%	1.57%	1.83%	2.30%	2.20%	2.19%	2.88%	3.23%	3.28%	3.49%	3.50%	3.84%	4.11%	4.95%	4.67%	4.76%	4.78%	5.07%	5.23%	5.26%	5.44%	5.88%	5.78%	5.11%	2.67%
Buffalo Bills	0.22%	0.31%	0.44%	0.76%	0.71%	0.91%	1.16%	1.27%	1.52%	1.55%	2.13%	1.93%	2.38%	2.30%	2.52%	2.83%	3.63%	3.63%	3.91%	3.91%	4.22%	4.58%	5.57%	5.62%	5.93%	5.98%	6.87%	6.49%	5.33%	5.13%	3.28%	2.98%
Carolina Panthers	0.16%	0.24%	0.40%	0.45%	0.57%	0.65%	0.84%	0.92%	1.03%	1.32%	1.80%	1.96%	2.10%	2.37%	2.46%	2.93%	3.18%	3.22%	3.55%	3.89%	4.42%	4.51%	4.88%	5.27%	5.96%	5.99%	6.64%	6.49%	7.09%	6.05%	5.83%	2.83%
Arizona Cardinals	0.17%	0.16%	0.24%	0.41%	0.62%	0.70%	1.03%	0.86%	1.36%	1.45%	1.44%	1.92%	2.11%	2.00%	2.69%	2.63%	2.85%	3.22%	3.57%	4.20%	4.85%	4.49%	4.81%	4.83%	5.55%	5.95%	6.42%	6.08%	7.03%	5.97%	6.78%	3.61%
Dallas Cowboys	0.16%	0.16%	0.17%	0.40%	0.57%	0.49%	0.81%	0.87%	1.29%	1.33%	1.55%	1.73%	2.10%	2.35%	2.63%	2.58%	3.08%	3.11%	3.87%	4.30%	4.11%	4.41%	4.87%	4.46%	5.37%	5.85%	6.71%	6.22%	7.01%	6.76%	6.67%	4.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	0.10%	0.15%	0.33%	0.27%	0.43%	0.56%	0.77%	0.82%	0.86%	1.08%	1.33%	1.57%	1.99%	2.20%	2.71%	2.55%	2.93%	3.01%	3.80%	4.16%	4.50%	4.50%	5.26%	6.00%	5.76%	6.61%	6.68%	7.43%	7.09%	8.70%	5.79%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.08%	0.16%	0.25%	0.43%	0.39%	0.51%	0.64%	0.82%	0.85%	0.95%	1.33%	1.53%	1.88%	1.62%	2.08%	2.32%	3.23%	2.70%	3.29%	4.25%	4.52%	5.03%	5.84%	6.22%	7.45%	8.48%	9.38%	13.99%	9.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.08%	0.15%	0.18%	0.20%	0.24%	0.32%	0.49%	0.54%	0.54%	0.67%	1.07%	0.78%	1.39%	1.30%	1.91%	1.93%	2.49%	2.75%	3.35%	3.77%	4.63%	5.25%	6.86%	8.56%	10.22%	13.89%	11.97%	14.32%
Houston Texans	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.09%	0.10%	0.19%	0.21%	0.27%	0.40%	0.49%	0.50%	1.00%	0.95%	1.42%	2.21%	3.57%	4.44%	7.67%	11.47%	19.93%	44.77%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders	16.81%	13.42%	11.03%	8.79%	8.44%	7.34%	34.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.48%	13.46%	12.74%	11.72%	8.15%	7.18%	30.27%
New England Patriots	15.88%	12.34%	11.12%	8.04%	10.24%	8.34%	34.04%
Miami Dolphins	9.28%	8.51%	8.26%	6.79%	10.45%	8.91%	47.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.84%	8.28%	9.16%	11.21%	6.55%	7.41%	50.55%
Indianapolis Colts	6.68%	8.67%	8.36%	10.88%	6.51%	7.25%	51.65%
Baltimore Ravens	6.15%	7.09%	7.05%	7.15%	8.37%	8.61%	55.58%
Tennessee Titans	5.51%	6.99%	7.49%	9.75%	6.60%	6.99%	56.67%
Denver Broncos	4.98%	5.79%	6.27%	5.43%	8.09%	7.85%	61.59%
Cleveland Browns	3.05%	4.10%	4.94%	4.97%	6.34%	7.32%	69.28%
New York Jets	2.72%	3.63%	3.99%	3.63%	6.14%	6.24%	73.65%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.64%	3.45%	3.94%	4.44%	5.90%	6.50%	73.13%
San Diego Chargers	2.19%	2.86%	3.80%	4.16%	5.17%	5.53%	76.29%
Buffalo Bills	0.73%	1.26%	1.57%	2.25%	2.63%	3.66%	87.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.15%	0.25%	0.64%	0.41%	0.80%	97.69%
Houston Texans	—	—	0.03%	0.15%	0.01%	0.07%	99.74%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	31.57%	21.90%	14.41%	10.06%	7.13%	4.66%	10.27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20.62%	17.70%	14.69%	8.68%	11.39%	8.24%	18.68%
Green Bay Packers	16.53%	18.87%	20.20%	22.89%	2.98%	3.73%	14.80%
San Francisco 49ers	9.36%	11.54%	13.03%	14.00%	8.25%	7.98%	35.84%
St. Louis Rams	7.00%	9.04%	10.77%	12.24%	9.58%	9.19%	42.18%
New Orleans Saints	5.66%	6.41%	6.32%	4.89%	14.74%	11.88%	50.10%
New York Giants	2.46%	3.07%	3.48%	2.41%	11.01%	10.59%	66.98%
Atlanta Falcons	2.01%	3.31%	3.71%	3.04%	8.76%	9.02%	70.15%
Washington Redskins	1.76%	1.95%	2.44%	2.06%	9.01%	8.64%	74.14%
Chicago Bears	1.31%	2.40%	3.93%	7.23%	5.08%	6.29%	73.76%
Seattle Seahawks	0.49%	1.11%	2.09%	3.68%	2.68%	4.49%	85.46%
Carolina Panthers	0.41%	0.78%	0.92%	0.85%	2.89%	3.86%	90.29%
Arizona Cardinals	0.33%	0.69%	1.65%	2.98%	1.81%	3.45%	89.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.32%	0.56%	0.66%	0.89%	2.65%	4.09%	90.83%
Minnesota Vikings	0.13%	0.43%	1.03%	2.24%	1.30%	2.35%	92.52%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.24%	0.67%	1.86%	0.74%	1.54%	94.91%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	79.67%	79.67%	54.02%	33.98%	21.20%
Oakland Raiders	54.93%	54.93%	36.53%	24.13%	13.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	67.14%	67.14%	40.97%	22.76%	13.13%
Green Bay Packers	68.58%	68.58%	35.65%	17.40%	9.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.84%	53.84%	30.11%	16.17%	7.05%
New England Patriots	47.76%	47.76%	24.10%	11.66%	4.82%
San Francisco 49ers	44.98%	44.98%	20.57%	8.43%	4.18%
Tennessee Titans	30.93%	30.93%	16.69%	8.47%	4.07%
Miami Dolphins	34.83%	34.83%	17.53%	8.06%	3.68%
New York Jets	20.00%	17.51%	9.60%	4.94%	2.29%
Indianapolis Colts	33.00%	30.92%	13.67%	5.81%	2.27%
Denver Broncos	27.64%	24.13%	11.61%	5.48%	2.11%
St. Louis Rams	41.78%	34.86%	12.67%	4.77%	1.87%
New Orleans Saints	37.83%	27.62%	10.51%	3.88%	1.73%
New York Giants	27.49%	18.11%	7.69%	3.32%	1.53%
Baltimore Ravens	31.18%	25.78%	9.80%	3.41%	1.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.78%	15.67%	7.43%	3.52%	1.17%
Jacksonville Jaguars	34.33%	28.52%	10.19%	3.35%	1.02%
Atlanta Falcons	24.53%	15.96%	6.37%	2.24%	0.97%
Cleveland Browns	23.57%	16.83%	6.76%	2.83%	0.96%
San Diego Chargers	18.66%	11.79%	3.85%	1.45%	0.45%
Washington Redskins	22.15%	10.99%	3.52%	1.11%	0.36%
Buffalo Bills	10.11%	5.99%	2.06%	0.72%	0.25%
Seattle Seahawks	12.94%	7.21%	2.10%	0.73%	0.23%
Chicago Bears	22.53%	10.66%	2.58%	0.69%	0.19%
Carolina Panthers	8.52%	3.48%	0.99%	0.29%	0.08%
Minnesota Vikings	6.92%	3.07%	0.79%	0.15%	0.07%
Arizona Cardinals	9.89%	3.32%	0.68%	0.09%	0.02%
Houston Texans	0.26%	0.06%	—	—	—
Detroit Lions	4.81%	1.47%	0.29%	0.04%	—
Dallas Cowboys	8.29%	2.88%	0.60%	0.12%	—
Cincinnati Bengals	2.10%	0.51%	0.07%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.36%	0.06%	0.72%	1.08%	0.01%	1.38%	1.56%	0.69%	1.19%	1.15%	0.49%	0.72%	1.16%	0.93%	1.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.38%		0.01%	0.37%	0.26%		0.44%	0.45%	0.23%	0.23%	0.29%	0.07%	0.34%	0.35%	0.31%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%		0.04%		0.03%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.66%	0.21%	0.09%		0.70%	0.02%	0.87%	1.38%	0.61%	0.85%	0.95%	0.50%	0.58%	0.86%	0.59%	0.81%
Denver Broncos	1.37%	0.46%	0.15%	0.96%			1.35%	1.42%	0.64%	1.54%	1.49%	0.68%	0.88%	1.02%	0.45%	0.95%
Houston Texans	0.01%				0.01%		0.01%				0.02%			0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.79%	0.60%	0.17%	1.43%	1.25%	0.01%		1.59%	0.81%	1.53%	1.35%	0.77%	1.15%	1.29%	0.95%	0.88%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.34%	0.39%	0.17%	1.25%	0.99%		1.32%		0.91%	1.16%	1.39%	0.65%	0.77%	1.35%	0.96%	0.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.99%	0.30%	0.14%	0.73%	0.45%	0.01%	0.95%	1.21%		0.87%	1.12%	0.51%	0.51%	0.78%	0.41%	0.60%
Miami Dolphins	1.73%	0.46%	0.15%	1.18%	1.33%	0.05%	1.68%	1.86%	1.03%		1.94%	0.59%	1.10%	1.66%	1.22%	1.06%
New England Patriots	2.00%	0.54%	0.14%	1.34%	1.70%		1.84%	2.34%	1.32%	2.05%		0.81%	1.13%	1.78%	1.30%	1.25%
New York Jets	1.18%	0.25%	0.11%	0.63%	0.92%	0.02%	1.09%	1.11%	0.68%	0.70%	1.05%		0.85%	1.08%	0.77%	0.72%
Oakland Raiders	2.26%	0.92%	0.19%	1.53%	2.05%	0.02%	2.06%	2.55%	1.30%	2.63%	2.73%	1.16%		2.01%	1.39%	1.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.24%	0.82%	0.17%	1.60%	1.83%	0.03%	2.34%	2.66%	1.49%	2.37%	2.25%	1.49%	1.44%		1.38%	1.79%
San Diego Chargers	0.72%	0.28%	0.10%	0.59%	0.31%	0.01%	0.56%	0.89%	0.24%	0.68%	0.76%	0.24%	0.38%	0.61%		0.37%
Tennessee Titans	1.96%	0.50%	0.15%	1.54%	1.39%	0.02%	1.52%	1.85%	1.22%	1.54%	1.69%	0.88%	1.01%	1.93%	1.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.14%	0.09%	0.26%	0.10%	0.05%	0.14%	0.06%	0.36%	0.14%	0.08%	0.27%	0.03%	0.24%	0.16%	0.18%
Atlanta Falcons	0.48%		0.19%	0.82%	0.26%	0.29%	1.50%	0.15%	0.87%	0.57%	0.56%	1.50%	0.38%	1.41%	1.00%	0.66%
Carolina Panthers	0.04%	0.09%		0.26%	0.04%	0.03%	0.40%	0.06%	0.21%	0.13%	0.15%	0.28%	0.10%	0.28%	0.14%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	0.24%	0.61%	0.20%		0.29%	0.11%	0.70%	0.07%	0.73%	0.38%	0.37%	0.80%	0.23%	0.91%	0.68%	0.63%
Dallas Cowboys	0.07%	0.10%	0.07%	0.23%		0.01%	0.21%	0.03%	0.19%	0.09%	0.12%	0.24%	0.03%	0.35%	0.22%	0.04%
Detroit Lions	0.05%	0.08%	0.03%	0.07%	0.07%		0.15%	0.03%	0.13%	0.06%	0.05%	0.09%	0.01%	0.21%	0.09%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	1.06%	2.91%	1.24%	2.66%	1.19%	0.63%		0.81%	4.53%	3.26%	1.47%	2.82%	1.31%	3.40%	2.49%	3.40%
Minnesota Vikings	0.09%	0.12%	0.10%	0.13%	0.04%	0.05%	0.24%		0.36%	0.16%	0.16%	0.19%	0.09%	0.33%	0.22%	0.23%
New Orleans Saints	0.77%	0.66%	0.24%	1.56%	0.32%	0.37%	1.94%	0.33%		0.87%	1.05%	1.89%	0.54%	2.42%	1.67%	0.92%
New York Giants	0.61%	0.52%	0.32%	1.02%	0.18%	0.22%	1.66%	0.25%	1.13%		1.13%	1.65%	0.51%	1.92%	1.12%	0.34%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.03%	2.12%	0.79%	1.94%	1.00%	0.41%	1.76%	0.57%	2.92%	2.37%		2.62%	1.28%	3.29%	1.91%	2.19%
San Francisco 49ers	0.77%	1.82%	0.99%	1.58%	0.92%	0.49%	1.88%	0.48%	3.02%	2.24%	1.50%		0.84%	3.47%	2.13%	1.95%
Seattle Seahawks	0.12%	0.34%	0.20%	0.49%	0.15%	0.07%	0.52%	0.12%	0.74%	0.44%	0.31%	0.62%		0.51%	0.48%	0.50%
St. Louis Rams	0.71%	1.43%	0.72%	1.61%	0.73%	0.33%	1.74%	0.48%	2.40%	1.64%	1.01%	2.53%	0.62%		1.37%	1.50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.07%	2.59%	0.90%	2.28%	0.87%	0.41%	2.93%	0.67%	4.09%	2.34%	1.55%	2.80%	1.02%	3.12%		2.18%
Washington Redskins	0.48%	0.36%	0.15%	0.67%	0.13%	0.15%	0.85%	0.30%	0.60%	0.22%	0.55%	0.88%	0.34%	1.10%	0.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.25%	0.01%	0.36%	0.72%	0.01%	0.94%	1.07%	0.49%	0.95%	1.48%	0.42%	1.07%	0.96%	0.33%	0.74%
Buffalo Bills	0.25%		0.01%	0.11%	0.19%		0.22%	0.20%	0.03%	0.09%	0.19%	0.03%	0.16%	0.37%	0.01%	0.20%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.01%			0.01%		0.01%	0.02%			0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.27%	0.14%			0.42%		0.65%	0.70%	0.21%	0.57%	1.07%	0.20%	0.74%	0.67%	0.34%	0.78%
Denver Broncos	0.91%	0.29%	0.03%	0.59%			1.09%	1.17%	0.27%	1.19%	1.55%	0.55%	1.03%	1.75%	0.37%	0.82%
Indianapolis Colts	1.45%	0.33%	0.07%	0.76%	0.93%			0.87%	0.72%	1.19%	1.84%	0.53%	1.48%	2.15%	0.70%	0.65%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.85%	0.31%	0.02%	0.60%	0.91%		0.55%		0.47%	1.01%	1.63%	0.38%	1.08%	1.45%	0.51%	0.42%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.67%	0.13%	0.01%	0.38%	0.33%		0.81%	0.77%		0.68%	1.02%	0.31%	0.67%	0.96%	0.18%	0.51%
Miami Dolphins	1.23%	0.23%	0.05%	1.00%	1.19%	0.01%	1.52%	1.88%	0.85%		2.29%	0.54%	1.94%	2.42%	0.79%	1.59%
New England Patriots	2.14%	0.45%	0.06%	1.31%	1.64%		2.40%	2.62%	1.16%	1.96%		1.01%	2.75%	3.52%	1.09%	1.99%
New York Jets	0.99%	0.07%	0.01%	0.35%	0.48%	0.01%	0.70%	0.97%	0.30%	0.73%	1.03%		1.38%	1.48%	0.40%	0.70%
Oakland Raiders	3.19%	0.66%	0.09%	2.07%	2.13%	0.01%	3.79%	3.73%	1.26%	3.70%	4.96%	1.69%		5.16%	1.02%	3.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.21%	0.67%	0.03%	1.37%	2.24%	0.02%	3.31%	3.15%	1.71%	2.83%	3.86%	1.21%	3.69%		1.31%	2.50%
San Diego Chargers	0.34%	0.09%	0.03%	0.20%	0.17%		0.47%	0.35%	0.11%	0.35%	0.55%	0.20%	0.29%	0.43%		0.27%
Tennessee Titans	1.48%	0.31%	0.02%	0.97%	1.16%		0.80%	0.84%	0.66%	2.04%	2.17%	0.84%	2.12%	2.39%	0.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.04%		0.04%			0.15%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.14%	0.03%		0.04%	0.11%	0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%		0.05%	0.23%	0.06%	0.03%	1.31%	0.05%	0.27%	0.22%	1.37%	0.89%	0.09%	0.78%	0.69%	0.24%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.04%		0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.14%	0.01%	0.04%		0.21%	0.19%	0.01%	0.13%	0.11%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	0.13%	0.06%		0.03%		0.24%		0.23%	0.13%	0.50%	0.38%	0.07%	0.36%	0.37%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys		0.04%	0.02%	0.07%			0.08%	0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.08%	0.06%		0.08%	0.08%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%		0.03%		0.07%	0.04%		0.04%	0.04%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.59%	2.09%	0.44%	0.90%	0.45%	0.08%		0.25%	3.66%	2.08%	6.27%	5.25%	1.08%	4.48%	6.58%	1.45%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.05%		0.02%			0.05%		0.08%	0.03%	0.14%	0.15%	0.01%	0.13%	0.10%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.23%	0.31%	0.03%	0.61%	0.12%	0.07%	1.91%	0.16%		0.50%	1.72%	1.47%	0.25%	1.34%	1.38%	0.41%
New York Giants	0.09%	0.31%	0.08%	0.24%	0.02%	0.06%	1.47%	0.04%	0.73%		1.51%	0.82%	0.15%	0.76%	1.19%	0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.75%	2.88%	0.83%	2.44%	0.64%	0.32%	10.45%	0.67%	4.73%	3.33%		7.76%	1.70%	6.65%	8.73%	2.14%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	1.00%	0.31%	0.90%	0.22%	0.17%	4.42%	0.25%	1.94%	0.92%	3.79%		0.29%	1.86%	3.62%	0.82%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%	0.10%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.53%	0.02%	0.10%	0.10%	0.41%	0.14%		0.13%	0.43%	0.07%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%	0.74%	0.18%	0.67%	0.20%	0.10%	2.73%	0.22%	1.18%	0.67%	2.23%	1.01%	0.11%		2.20%	0.40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.67%	1.71%	0.44%	1.71%	0.48%	0.30%	8.78%	0.49%	3.67%	2.34%	6.64%	5.83%	1.26%	5.08%		1.57%
Washington Redskins	0.05%	0.14%	0.03%	0.18%	0.01%	0.03%	0.65%	0.09%	0.36%	0.06%	0.57%	0.39%	0.09%	0.33%	0.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.04%		0.09%	0.21%	0.28%	0.24%	0.22%	0.37%	0.37%	0.26%	0.57%	0.29%	0.18%	0.29%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%			0.02%	0.06%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%		0.14%	0.16%	0.05%	0.08%
Cleveland Browns	0.12%	0.04%			0.26%	0.11%	0.28%	0.15%	0.27%	0.49%	0.12%	0.47%	0.20%	0.11%	0.21%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	0.06%		0.25%		0.61%	0.54%	0.12%	0.61%	0.71%	0.29%	0.44%	0.94%	0.07%	0.52%
Indianapolis Colts	0.45%	0.08%		0.20%	0.44%		0.16%	0.24%	0.66%	0.97%	0.30%	1.09%	0.83%	0.15%	0.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.23%	0.04%		0.10%	0.18%	0.08%		0.15%	0.40%	0.55%	0.21%	0.49%	0.56%	0.12%	0.24%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.31%	0.07%	0.01%	0.19%	0.09%	0.41%	0.20%		0.52%	0.47%	0.18%	0.33%	0.46%	0.03%	0.25%
Miami Dolphins	0.56%	0.08%	0.02%	0.37%	0.55%	0.77%	0.57%	0.36%		0.58%	0.20%	1.46%	1.50%	0.25%	0.79%
New England Patriots	0.92%	0.12%	0.02%	0.51%	0.83%	1.26%	0.80%	0.66%	0.60%		0.22%	2.12%	2.23%	0.26%	1.11%
New York Jets	0.32%	0.01%		0.22%	0.40%	0.48%	0.41%	0.17%	0.25%	0.34%		0.92%	0.78%	0.12%	0.52%
Oakland Raiders	1.78%	0.39%	0.01%	1.27%	0.94%	2.02%	1.97%	0.64%	2.80%	3.97%	1.35%		4.41%	0.31%	2.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.54%	0.25%		0.29%	1.26%	1.31%	1.23%	0.74%	1.95%	2.61%	1.00%	2.96%		0.49%	1.54%
San Diego Chargers	0.12%	0.02%	0.01%	0.13%	0.03%	0.12%	0.13%	0.04%	0.12%	0.19%	0.09%	0.09%	0.20%		0.16%
Tennessee Titans	0.68%	0.14%		0.29%	0.88%	0.37%	0.30%	0.38%	0.88%	1.15%	0.44%	1.32%	1.38%	0.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.01%					0.04%		0.01%						0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%			0.08%	0.06%		0.46%		0.15%	0.07%	0.62%	0.29%	0.02%	0.19%	0.25%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers							0.08%		0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.01%
Chicago Bears		0.05%					0.08%		0.04%	0.04%	0.13%	0.12%		0.07%	0.12%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys		0.02%		0.01%			0.01%		0.01%			0.01%			0.05%	0.01%
Detroit Lions										0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.08%	0.82%	0.14%	0.19%	0.12%	0.04%		0.04%	1.17%	0.95%	5.37%	2.32%	0.22%	1.45%	4.01%	0.48%
Minnesota Vikings				0.01%							0.04%	0.03%		0.01%	0.06%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.75%	0.05%		0.25%	1.13%	0.43%	0.10%	0.38%	0.43%	0.14%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.08%	0.03%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%	0.83%	0.01%	0.27%		0.47%	0.41%	0.05%	0.26%	0.72%	0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.20%	1.67%	0.27%	0.73%	0.08%	0.05%	8.34%	0.26%	2.98%	1.05%		4.89%	0.47%	3.27%	9.07%	0.65%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.41%	0.10%	0.17%	0.03%	0.02%	1.58%	0.07%	0.51%	0.45%	2.48%		0.09%	0.31%	1.97%	0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	0.02%			0.01%		0.11%	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.21%	0.09%		0.02%	0.12%	0.01%
St. Louis Rams	0.01%	0.22%	0.03%	0.11%	0.01%	0.01%	1.00%	0.06%	0.31%	0.22%	1.25%	0.28%			1.08%	0.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.19%	0.73%	0.12%	0.41%	0.10%	0.08%	4.78%	0.12%	1.08%	1.18%	8.12%	3.11%	0.40%	1.77%		0.57%
Washington Redskins	0.02%	0.06%		0.03%	0.02%		0.19%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.18%	0.14%	0.01%	0.14%	0.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%									0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.02%				0.03%		0.05%			0.05%	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%		0.14%			0.06%	0.19%		0.17%	0.01%					0.11%
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%			0.01%	0.03%		0.01%			0.20%							0.05%	0.08%			0.37%			0.14%	0.02%	0.09%	0.27%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills		0.03%						0.01%			0.05%							0.03%				0.08%			0.02%	0.01%		0.02%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%				0.01%		0.01%					0.01%			0.01%				0.02%		0.01%
Chicago Bears														0.02%	0.03%		0.03%			0.01%	0.03%		0.06%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns		0.02%				0.01%				0.01%	0.16%					0.01%		0.06%	0.03%			0.24%			0.16%		0.03%	0.21%		0.02%
Denver Broncos		0.12%				0.02%					0.42%					0.02%		0.10%	0.09%			0.58%			0.18%	0.02%	0.10%	0.44%		0.02%
Green Bay Packers			0.36%	0.09%			0.29%		0.61%			0.70%	0.41%	0.45%	0.68%		1.16%			0.47%	1.93%		1.57%	0.18%					0.73%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.04%			0.02%	0.02%		0.01%			0.28%					0.01%		0.12%	0.09%			0.64%			0.28%	0.04%	0.13%	0.54%		0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.03%									0.17%							0.07%	0.08%			0.28%			0.12%	0.01%	0.05%	0.20%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.02%									0.25%							0.04%	0.05%			0.30%			0.17%	0.02%	0.06%	0.23%		0.03%
Miami Dolphins		0.08%			0.01%	0.08%		0.03%			0.65%							0.14%	0.18%			1.00%			0.39%	0.04%	0.27%	0.74%		0.07%
Minnesota Vikings							0.01%								0.01%		0.01%			0.02%	0.02%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.13%			0.02%	0.02%		0.03%			0.91%							0.28%	0.16%			1.50%			0.41%	0.05%	0.38%	0.82%		0.10%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%				0.06%		0.12%			0.09%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%		0.25%			0.09%	0.44%		0.21%	0.02%					0.13%
New York Giants			0.04%				0.09%		0.08%			0.12%	0.11%	0.07%	0.11%		0.17%				0.31%		0.30%	0.02%					0.11%
New York Jets		0.10%			0.02%	0.02%					0.42%							0.15%	0.04%			0.75%			0.19%		0.13%	0.45%		0.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.38%			0.07%	0.13%		0.01%		0.01%	2.42%					0.03%		0.55%	0.49%			3.73%			1.29%	0.11%	0.88%	2.99%		0.26%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.83%	0.18%			0.78%		1.20%			1.31%	0.80%	0.71%	1.84%		2.71%			1.05%	4.04%		3.68%	0.32%					1.75%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.18%				0.10%				0.01%	1.20%							0.39%	0.35%			1.94%			0.55%	0.11%	0.47%	1.64%		0.09%
San Diego Chargers		0.01%				0.01%					0.05%							0.02%	0.03%			0.05%			0.04%		0.07%	0.16%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			0.18%	0.04%			0.12%		0.20%			0.23%	0.14%	0.18%	0.34%		0.52%			0.20%	0.81%		0.72%	0.07%					0.43%
Seattle Seahawks			0.02%				0.01%		0.02%					0.01%	0.01%		0.04%				0.06%		0.05%						0.01%
St. Louis Rams			0.11%	0.02%			0.06%		0.13%			0.18%	0.12%	0.08%	0.16%		0.15%			0.05%	0.39%		0.20%	0.04%					0.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.49%	0.14%			0.39%		0.93%			0.82%	0.53%	0.67%	1.05%		1.62%			0.69%	2.44%		2.09%	0.33%					0.94%
Tennessee Titans		0.12%			0.06%	0.06%		0.02%		0.01%	0.59%					0.01%		0.15%	0.12%			1.32%			0.31%	0.07%	0.24%	0.92%		0.07%
Washington Redskins			0.04%				0.02%		0.02%			0.03%	0.03%		0.04%		0.03%			0.01%	0.07%		0.06%						0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	71.80%	45.40%	25.34%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	100.00%	70.54%	46.47%	23.44%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.00%	63.34%	29.51%	15.98%	Won Super Bowl
Tennessee Titans	100.00%	58.28%	24.69%	10.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Green Bay Packers	70.33%	26.84%	11.69%	6.01%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.55%	29.57%	12.55%	5.66%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Jets	66.43%	23.98%	10.00%	4.46%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	58.05%	17.66%	5.97%	2.85%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	41.95%	12.78%	4.66%	2.19%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	33.57%	10.26%	3.86%	1.48%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	29.67%	7.58%	2.77%	1.09%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns	30.45%	7.37%	2.43%	0.86%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns				30.45%
Indianapolis Colts			33.57%
New York Jets		66.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		29.67%
Green Bay Packers	70.33%
New York Giants				41.95%
San Francisco 49ers			58.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns				7.37%
Indianapolis Colts				6.40%		3.86%
New York Jets				15.69%		8.29%
Oakland Raiders	23.08%	17.23%	30.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers						29.57%
Tennessee Titans		6.08%	12.22%		39.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons				7.58%
Green Bay Packers						26.84%
New York Giants				8.68%		4.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	22.09%		20.95%		28.76%
San Francisco 49ers				11.94%		5.72%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		43.49%	8.22%		11.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns		0.41%	0.54%			1.48%
Indianapolis Colts	0.63%			0.79%	0.96%	1.48%
New York Jets	1.42%			1.99%	2.81%	3.78%
Oakland Raiders		2.03%	4.34%		13.25%	26.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.74%	3.86%	6.95%
Tennessee Titans	2.89%	2.22%	5.24%	14.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons			0.42%		0.60%	1.75%
Green Bay Packers			2.09%	6.45%	3.15%
New York Giants	0.58%	1.15%		1.01%		1.92%
Philadelphia Eagles		12.44%	2.09%		3.02%	27.85%
San Francisco 49ers	0.89%	1.56%		1.21%		2.31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.34%		3.52%	17.73%	4.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Cleveland Browns	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans
Atlanta Falcons		0.04%		0.04%		0.11%	0.51%		0.17%			0.22%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%		0.09%		0.01%			0.45%		0.05%	0.25%
Green Bay Packers		0.19%		0.29%		0.72%	2.46%		0.77%			1.58%
Indianapolis Colts	0.08%		0.19%		0.07%			0.61%		0.11%	0.42%
New York Giants		0.19%		0.09%		0.21%	0.97%		0.24%			0.49%
New York Jets	0.16%		0.50%		0.24%			1.98%		0.24%	1.34%
Oakland Raiders	0.79%		2.65%		1.34%			10.13%		1.60%	6.93%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.65%		1.10%		2.34%	11.06%		3.39%			6.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.20%		0.75%		0.29%			2.39%		0.34%	1.69%
San Francisco 49ers		0.08%		0.14%		0.32%	1.11%		0.36%			0.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.42%		0.72%		1.84%	6.92%		1.96%			4.12%
Tennessee Titans	0.44%		1.50%		0.52%			4.50%		0.78%	2.90%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Philadelphia Eagles 25.34% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.06%

Win Prob

70.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

61.34%

Win Prob

61.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

43.65%

Win Prob

52.19%

Oakland Raiders 23.44% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

42.86%

Win Prob

65.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

57.78%

Win Prob

65.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

43.22%

Win Prob

47.81%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

68.66%

Win Prob

61.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

60.08%

Win Prob

38.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

43.30%

Win Prob

49.96%

Tennessee Titans 10.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

68.60%

Win Prob

57.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

58.08%

Win Prob

34.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

42.29%

Win Prob

39.82%

Green Bay Packers 6.01% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

55.18%

Win Prob

34.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

40.93%

Win Prob

48.14%

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.66% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.55%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

55.38%

Win Prob

34.41%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

42.23%

Win Prob

41.35%

New York Jets 4.46% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

65.43%

Win Prob

34.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

37.80%

Win Prob

41.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

44.39%

Win Prob

45.83%

San Francisco 49ers 2.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.05%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

67.61%

Win Prob

29.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

38.69%

Win Prob

31.95%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

38.95%

Win Prob

40.96%

New York Giants 2.19% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.95%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

67.92%

Win Prob

29.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

41.20%

Win Prob

35.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

44.29%

Win Prob

41.99%

Indianapolis Colts 1.48% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

62.38%

Win Prob

27.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

38.34%

Win Prob

40.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

41.22%

Win Prob

35.67%

Atlanta Falcons 1.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

63.18%

Win Prob

34.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

46.79%

Win Prob

39.23%

Cleveland Browns 0.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.45%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

60.91%

Win Prob

33.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.33%

Win Prob

40.91%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2002-09-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 23-31	1462.96	1516.09	34.72%	64.82%	-12.88	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-13	1450.08	1484.52	37.20%	62.35%	+27.07	1-1
2002-09-22	San Diego Chargers	L 15-23	1477.15	1522.02	51.22%	48.32%	-18.98	1-2
2002-09-29	New York Giants	W 21-7	1458.17	1507.82	50.54%	49.01%	+24.02	2-2
2002-10-06	@ Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1482.19	1480.18	42.22%	57.33%	+13.00	3-2
2002-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 9-6	1495.19	1440.97	64.97%	34.58%	+7.86	4-2
2002-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1503.05	1575.68	32.22%	67.32%	-13.37	4-3
2002-11-03	St. Louis Rams	L 14-27	1489.68	1557.88	47.87%	51.68%	-22.61	4-4
2002-11-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-27	1467.07	1431.50	62.50%	37.05%	-37.49	4-5
2002-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-38	1429.58	1614.49	19.94%	79.60%	-12.84	4-6
2002-11-24	Oakland Raiders	L 20-41	1416.74	1604.01	31.63%	67.91%	-19.02	4-7
2002-12-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-49	1397.72	1500.89	28.51%	71.04%	-26.19	4-8
2002-12-08	Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1371.53	1349.73	60.63%	38.91%	+8.84	5-8
2002-12-15	@ St. Louis Rams	L 28-30	1380.37	1531.90	23.19%	76.36%	-4.31	5-9
2002-12-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1376.06	1567.20	31.15%	68.39%	-7.08	5-10
2002-12-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-37	1368.98	1534.67	21.77%	77.78%	-15.66	5-11
2002-09-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 34-37	1449.84	1565.49	27.07%	72.48%	-6.16	0-1
2002-09-15	Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1443.68	1566.00	40.21%	59.34%	-5.27	0-2
2002-09-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-3	1438.41	1392.48	63.88%	35.67%	+24.31	1-2
2002-10-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-20	1462.72	1593.52	39.04%	60.51%	-19.15	1-3
2002-10-13	@ New York Giants	W 17-10	1443.57	1497.58	34.61%	64.94%	+22.49	2-3
2002-10-20	Carolina Panthers	W 30-0	1466.06	1461.09	58.31%	41.24%	+29.61	3-3
2002-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 37-35	1495.67	1572.71	31.67%	67.87%	+12.57	4-3
2002-11-03	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-17	1508.24	1511.96	57.09%	42.46%	+9.64	5-3
2002-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 34-34	1517.88	1606.30	30.27%	69.27%	+1.27	5-3
2002-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1519.15	1576.03	49.50%	50.05%	+17.35	6-3
2002-11-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 41-0	1536.50	1399.91	61.30%	38.25%	+32.11	7-3
2002-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-24	1568.61	1419.46	62.99%	36.55%	+11.74	8-3
2002-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-34	1580.35	1639.34	33.96%	65.58%	-21.82	8-4
2002-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1558.53	1439.22	72.89%	26.65%	-23.37	8-5
2002-12-22	Detroit Lions	W 36-15	1535.16	1336.86	80.80%	18.74%	+11.28	9-5
2002-12-29	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-24	1546.44	1485.27	50.67%	48.88%	-18.77	9-6
2002-09-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-10	1545.26	1431.24	58.19%	41.36%	-13.19	0-1
2002-09-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-25	1532.07	1513.28	60.22%	39.33%	-39.42	0-2
2002-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 34-23	1492.65	1557.31	48.38%	51.17%	+22.23	1-2
2002-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-21	1514.88	1485.85	46.05%	53.49%	+15.67	2-2
2002-10-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-22	1530.55	1512.23	44.52%	55.02%	-8.26	2-3
2002-10-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-10	1522.29	1521.45	57.73%	41.82%	+14.51	3-3
2002-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-31	1536.80	1572.14	52.59%	46.95%	-24.84	3-4
2002-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1511.96	1508.24	42.46%	57.09%	-9.64	3-5
2002-11-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-27	1502.32	1346.06	76.84%	22.71%	+9.89	4-5
2002-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-26	1512.21	1527.92	39.75%	59.79%	-22.71	4-6
2002-11-24	Tennessee Titans	W 13-12	1489.50	1517.50	53.64%	45.90%	+6.01	5-6
2002-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-23	1495.51	1317.69	66.73%	32.82%	+8.61	6-6
2002-12-08	New Orleans Saints	L 25-37	1504.12	1545.59	51.71%	47.83%	-23.46	6-7
2002-12-15	@ Houston Texans	W 23-19	1480.66	1273.06	70.39%	29.16%	+7.65	7-7
2002-12-22	Cleveland Browns	L 13-14	1488.31	1477.53	59.11%	40.43%	-7.74	7-8
2002-12-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-34	1480.57	1588.78	27.92%	71.62%	-6.34	7-9
2002-09-08	New York Jets	L 31-37	1438.16	1521.27	45.73%	53.82%	-14.68	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 45-39	1423.48	1456.17	37.44%	62.11%	+19.92	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-28	1443.40	1549.03	28.22%	71.32%	-8.29	1-2
2002-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 33-27	1435.11	1550.30	41.20%	58.35%	+18.72	2-2
2002-10-06	Oakland Raiders	L 31-49	1453.83	1615.83	34.86%	64.69%	-19.40	2-3
2002-10-13	@ Houston Texans	W 31-24	1434.43	1268.03	65.26%	34.28%	+11.90	3-3
2002-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-10	1446.33	1589.70	24.04%	75.51%	+35.63	4-3
2002-10-27	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1481.96	1401.17	68.34%	31.21%	+10.84	5-3
2002-11-03	New England Patriots	L 7-38	1492.80	1548.51	49.66%	49.88%	-36.22	5-4
2002-11-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-17	1456.58	1514.88	34.05%	65.50%	-4.47	5-5
2002-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 13-31	1452.11	1529.03	31.69%	67.86%	-17.64	5-6
2002-12-01	Miami Dolphins	W 38-21	1434.47	1575.79	37.61%	61.94%	+33.43	6-6
2002-12-08	@ New England Patriots	L 17-27	1467.90	1596.83	25.59%	73.96%	-10.62	6-7
2002-12-15	San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1457.28	1477.80	54.71%	44.84%	+15.55	7-7
2002-12-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-10	1472.83	1639.38	21.68%	77.86%	-9.01	7-8
2002-12-29	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-9	1463.82	1302.41	77.36%	22.19%	+12.36	8-8
2002-09-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 10-7	1431.24	1545.26	41.36%	58.19%	+13.19	1-0
2002-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1444.43	1421.01	60.85%	38.69%	+24.86	2-0
2002-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 21-14	1469.29	1436.25	46.62%	52.92%	+18.34	3-0
2002-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1487.63	1555.97	32.77%	66.78%	-7.45	3-1
2002-10-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-16	1480.18	1482.19	57.33%	42.22%	-13.00	3-2
2002-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-14	1467.18	1434.87	46.52%	53.03%	-6.09	3-3
2002-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-30	1461.09	1466.06	41.24%	58.31%	-29.62	3-4
2002-10-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-12	1431.47	1607.26	33.08%	66.47%	-7.51	3-5
2002-11-10	New Orleans Saints	L 24-34	1423.96	1560.15	38.30%	61.24%	-15.89	3-6
2002-11-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-23	1408.07	1624.22	17.23%	82.32%	-8.16	3-7
2002-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-41	1399.91	1536.50	38.25%	61.30%	-32.11	3-8
2002-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-6	1367.80	1511.44	24.01%	75.54%	+26.16	4-8
2002-12-08	Cincinnati Bengals	W 52-31	1393.96	1309.08	68.84%	30.70%	+18.46	5-8
2002-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1412.42	1546.07	25.07%	74.47%	-13.17	5-9
2002-12-22	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1399.25	1439.81	51.84%	47.70%	+19.77	6-9
2002-12-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 10-6	1419.02	1531.66	27.41%	72.13%	+18.88	7-9
2002-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-23	1558.24	1463.93	69.99%	29.56%	+7.76	1-0
2002-09-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-13	1566.00	1443.68	59.34%	40.21%	+5.27	2-0
2002-09-22	New Orleans Saints	L 23-29	1571.27	1513.52	65.42%	34.12%	-20.97	2-1
2002-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-33	1550.30	1435.11	58.35%	41.20%	-18.72	2-2
2002-10-07	Green Bay Packers	L 21-34	1531.58	1563.41	53.09%	46.45%	-25.07	2-3
2002-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1506.51	1387.83	58.84%	40.71%	-13.34	2-4
2002-10-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-25	1493.17	1390.35	56.61%	42.93%	-31.45	2-5
2002-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-19	1461.72	1654.28	30.98%	68.57%	-9.95	2-6
2002-11-10	New England Patriots	L 30-33	1451.77	1584.73	38.74%	60.80%	-8.80	2-7
2002-11-18	@ St. Louis Rams	L 16-21	1442.97	1589.00	23.76%	75.79%	-6.98	2-8
2002-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1435.99	1367.14	66.84%	32.70%	+7.43	3-8
2002-12-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-30	1443.42	1608.97	21.78%	77.76%	-9.04	3-9
2002-12-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-27	1434.38	1542.36	27.95%	71.60%	-15.57	3-10
2002-12-15	New York Jets	W 20-13	1418.81	1550.36	38.94%	60.61%	+21.00	4-10
2002-12-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-24	1439.81	1399.25	47.70%	51.84%	-19.77	4-11
2002-12-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-15	1420.04	1635.66	28.21%	71.33%	-14.34	4-12
2002-09-08	San Diego Chargers	L 6-34	1445.90	1474.21	53.60%	45.95%	-37.15	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-20	1408.75	1464.36	34.40%	65.14%	-16.27	0-2
2002-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-30	1392.48	1438.41	35.67%	63.88%	-24.31	0-3
2002-09-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-35	1368.17	1573.05	29.48%	70.06%	-20.47	0-4
2002-10-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-28	1347.70	1504.36	22.67%	76.88%	-7.87	0-5
2002-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1339.83	1529.82	31.29%	68.25%	-21.34	0-6
2002-10-27	Tennessee Titans	L 24-30	1318.49	1457.23	37.96%	61.59%	-12.19	0-7
2002-11-03	@ Houston Texans	W 38-3	1306.30	1262.03	48.24%	51.31%	+39.76	1-7
2002-11-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 27-38	1346.06	1502.32	22.71%	76.84%	-9.89	1-8
2002-11-17	Cleveland Browns	L 20-27	1336.17	1471.63	38.40%	61.14%	-13.33	1-9
2002-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-29	1322.84	1583.75	13.86%	85.69%	-5.15	1-10
2002-12-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-27	1317.69	1495.51	32.82%	66.73%	-8.61	1-11
2002-12-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 31-52	1309.08	1393.96	30.70%	68.84%	-18.46	1-12
2002-12-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-29	1290.62	1479.71	31.40%	68.14%	-15.42	1-13
2002-12-22	New Orleans Saints	W 20-13	1275.20	1558.87	20.99%	78.56%	+27.21	2-13
2002-12-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-27	1302.41	1463.82	22.19%	77.36%	-12.37	2-14
2002-09-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 39-40	1471.54	1490.80	54.89%	44.66%	-7.18	0-1
2002-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-7	1464.36	1408.75	65.14%	34.40%	+16.27	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-28	1480.63	1496.86	39.68%	59.87%	+13.57	2-1
2002-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1494.20	1531.76	36.78%	62.76%	-8.35	2-2
2002-10-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 21-26	1485.85	1514.88	53.49%	46.05%	-15.67	2-3
2002-10-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-17	1470.18	1612.68	24.13%	75.42%	-11.85	2-4
2002-10-20	Houston Texans	W 34-17	1458.33	1256.13	81.14%	18.40%	+9.97	3-4
2002-10-27	@ New York Jets	W 24-21	1468.30	1455.57	43.73%	55.82%	+12.65	4-4
2002-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1480.95	1596.97	41.08%	58.46%	-9.32	4-5
2002-11-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1471.63	1336.17	61.14%	38.40%	+13.32	5-5
2002-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-15	1484.95	1558.68	32.09%	67.46%	+26.49	6-5
2002-12-01	Carolina Panthers	L 6-13	1511.44	1367.80	75.54%	24.01%	-26.16	6-6
2002-12-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-20	1485.28	1487.29	41.65%	57.89%	+7.58	7-6
2002-12-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-28	1492.86	1529.96	52.34%	47.21%	-15.33	7-7
2002-12-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 14-13	1477.53	1488.31	40.43%	59.11%	+7.74	8-7
2002-12-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1485.27	1546.44	48.88%	50.67%	+18.77	9-7
2002-09-08	@ Houston Texans	L 10-19	1453.53	1275.00	66.82%	32.73%	-26.24	0-1
2002-09-15	Tennessee Titans	W 21-13	1427.29	1517.15	44.77%	54.78%	+20.29	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-44	1447.58	1619.38	21.17%	78.37%	-15.48	1-2
2002-09-29	@ St. Louis Rams	W 13-10	1432.10	1552.85	26.49%	73.05%	+16.56	2-2
2002-10-06	New York Giants	L 17-21	1448.66	1483.80	52.62%	46.93%	-13.79	2-3
2002-10-13	Carolina Panthers	W 14-13	1434.87	1467.18	53.03%	46.52%	+6.10	3-3
2002-10-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-9	1440.97	1495.19	34.58%	64.97%	-7.86	3-4
2002-10-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-17	1433.11	1442.29	56.32%	43.23%	-12.77	3-5
2002-11-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-9	1420.34	1390.34	46.19%	53.36%	-8.56	3-6
2002-11-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-20	1411.78	1513.35	28.70%	70.85%	-15.53	3-7
2002-11-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-19	1396.25	1506.16	41.93%	57.61%	+10.67	4-7
2002-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1406.92	1482.54	46.80%	52.74%	+18.27	5-7
2002-12-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1425.19	1574.33	36.56%	62.99%	-9.58	5-8
2002-12-15	@ New York Giants	L 7-37	1415.61	1495.08	31.37%	68.18%	-22.55	5-9
2002-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-27	1393.06	1687.35	19.99%	79.55%	-12.86	5-10
2002-12-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1380.20	1449.90	32.59%	66.95%	-10.48	5-11
2002-09-08	St. Louis Rams	W 23-16	1502.78	1614.47	41.69%	57.86%	+20.05	1-0
2002-09-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1522.83	1564.32	36.26%	63.29%	+26.20	2-0
2002-09-22	Buffalo Bills	W 28-23	1549.03	1443.40	71.32%	28.22%	+8.28	3-0
2002-09-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-34	1557.31	1492.65	51.17%	48.38%	-22.23	3-1
2002-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 26-9	1535.08	1560.82	53.97%	45.58%	+24.63	4-1
2002-10-13	Miami Dolphins	L 22-24	1559.71	1579.55	54.81%	44.74%	-10.15	4-2
2002-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-34	1549.56	1512.77	47.16%	52.38%	+11.88	5-2
2002-10-27	@ New England Patriots	W 24-16	1561.44	1570.30	40.70%	58.85%	+21.79	6-2
2002-11-11	Oakland Raiders	L 10-34	1583.23	1549.32	62.28%	37.27%	-39.93	6-3
2002-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-9	1543.30	1468.99	52.55%	46.99%	+28.87	7-3
2002-11-24	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1572.17	1528.88	63.53%	36.02%	-14.40	7-4
2002-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-30	1557.77	1488.80	51.79%	47.76%	-11.75	7-5
2002-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 13-19	1546.02	1536.47	43.28%	56.26%	-13.89	7-6
2002-12-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1532.13	1566.56	52.72%	46.82%	+16.23	8-6
2002-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-28	1548.36	1638.03	30.12%	69.43%	-13.69	8-7
2002-12-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-7	1534.67	1368.98	77.78%	21.77%	+15.66	9-7
2002-09-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-49	1442.65	1523.81	31.16%	68.39%	-21.64	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-31	1421.01	1444.43	38.69%	60.85%	-24.85	0-2
2002-09-22	Green Bay Packers	L 31-37	1396.16	1544.17	36.71%	62.84%	-11.79	0-3
2002-09-29	New Orleans Saints	W 26-21	1384.37	1534.49	36.42%	63.12%	+18.47	1-3
2002-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-31	1402.84	1393.25	43.29%	56.26%	-15.01	1-4
2002-10-20	Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1387.83	1506.51	40.71%	58.84%	+13.34	2-4
2002-10-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1401.17	1481.96	31.21%	68.34%	-10.83	2-5
2002-11-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 9-7	1390.34	1420.34	53.36%	46.19%	+8.56	3-5
2002-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-40	1398.90	1651.42	14.44%	85.10%	-9.68	3-6
2002-11-17	New York Jets	L 14-31	1389.22	1506.96	40.84%	58.70%	-22.08	3-7
2002-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1367.14	1435.99	32.70%	66.84%	-7.43	3-8
2002-11-28	New England Patriots	L 12-20	1359.71	1586.85	26.89%	72.66%	-9.98	3-9
2002-12-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1349.73	1371.53	38.91%	60.63%	-8.84	3-10
2002-12-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1340.89	1661.16	17.71%	81.84%	-4.03	3-11
2002-12-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-36	1336.86	1535.16	18.74%	80.80%	-11.28	3-12
2002-12-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 36-38	1325.58	1427.93	43.00%	56.55%	-7.97	3-13
2002-09-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-34	1565.49	1449.84	72.48%	27.07%	+6.16	1-0
2002-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-35	1571.65	1486.04	54.17%	45.37%	-27.48	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-31	1544.17	1396.16	62.84%	36.71%	+11.80	2-1
2002-09-29	Carolina Panthers	W 17-14	1555.97	1487.63	66.78%	32.77%	+7.44	3-1
2002-10-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-21	1563.41	1531.58	46.45%	53.09%	+25.07	4-1
2002-10-13	@ New England Patriots	W 28-10	1588.48	1603.46	39.85%	59.69%	+33.16	5-1
2002-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 30-9	1621.64	1479.59	75.37%	24.17%	+14.54	6-1
2002-11-04	Miami Dolphins	W 24-10	1636.18	1554.06	68.50%	31.04%	+15.24	7-1
2002-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 40-14	1651.42	1398.90	85.10%	14.44%	+9.68	8-1
2002-11-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-31	1661.10	1395.75	76.76%	22.79%	-31.77	8-2
2002-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-21	1629.33	1632.38	41.51%	58.04%	-20.36	8-3
2002-12-01	Chicago Bears	W 30-20	1608.97	1443.42	77.76%	21.78%	+9.04	9-3
2002-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-22	1618.01	1407.72	81.83%	17.71%	+4.66	10-3
2002-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-14	1622.67	1583.92	47.44%	52.10%	+16.71	11-3
2002-12-22	Buffalo Bills	W 10-0	1639.38	1472.83	77.86%	21.68%	+9.01	12-3
2002-12-29	@ New York Jets	L 17-42	1648.39	1559.80	54.60%	44.95%	-35.75	12-4
2002-09-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-10	1275.00	1453.53	32.73%	66.82%	+26.24	1-0
2002-09-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-24	1301.24	1511.35	17.73%	81.82%	-10.67	1-1
2002-09-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 3-23	1290.57	1486.42	30.57%	68.97%	-17.95	1-2
2002-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-35	1272.62	1634.87	8.24%	91.31%	-4.59	1-3
2002-10-13	Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1268.03	1434.43	34.28%	65.26%	-11.90	1-4
2002-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-34	1256.13	1458.33	18.40%	81.14%	-9.97	1-5
2002-10-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-19	1246.16	1506.95	13.86%	85.68%	+15.87	2-5
2002-11-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-38	1262.03	1306.30	51.31%	48.24%	-39.76	2-6
2002-11-10	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1222.27	1491.60	13.29%	86.26%	-4.62	2-7
2002-11-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1217.65	1501.39	20.98%	78.57%	-4.77	2-8
2002-11-24	New York Giants	W 16-14	1212.88	1504.22	20.26%	79.28%	+14.67	3-8
2002-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-19	1227.55	1543.29	10.50%	89.05%	-5.52	3-9
2002-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-6	1222.03	1597.10	7.70%	91.85%	+51.03	4-9
2002-12-15	Baltimore Ravens	L 19-23	1273.06	1480.66	29.16%	70.39%	-7.65	4-10
2002-12-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-26	1265.41	1438.86	21.02%	78.53%	-11.04	4-11
2002-12-29	Tennessee Titans	L 3-13	1254.37	1596.38	15.96%	83.59%	-6.63	4-12
2002-09-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-25	1492.39	1499.06	41.00%	58.54%	+13.27	1-0
2002-09-15	Miami Dolphins	L 13-21	1505.66	1545.45	51.95%	47.59%	-19.24	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Houston Texans	W 23-3	1486.42	1290.57	68.97%	30.57%	+17.94	2-1
2002-10-06	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-21	1504.36	1347.70	76.88%	22.67%	+7.87	3-1
2002-10-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 22-20	1512.23	1530.55	55.02%	44.52%	+8.26	4-1
2002-10-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1520.49	1551.16	37.71%	61.84%	-20.98	4-2
2002-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-26	1499.51	1465.04	46.83%	52.72%	-13.72	4-3
2002-11-03	Tennessee Titans	L 15-23	1485.79	1469.42	59.88%	39.66%	-22.18	4-4
2002-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-13	1463.61	1664.23	18.54%	81.01%	+49.74	5-4
2002-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-3	1513.35	1411.78	70.85%	28.70%	+15.53	6-4
2002-11-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1528.88	1572.17	36.02%	63.53%	+14.41	7-4
2002-12-01	Houston Texans	W 19-3	1543.29	1227.55	89.05%	10.50%	+5.52	8-4
2002-12-08	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-27	1548.81	1523.84	45.47%	54.08%	-18.85	8-5
2002-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns	W 28-23	1529.96	1492.86	47.21%	52.34%	+15.33	9-5
2002-12-22	New York Giants	L 27-44	1545.29	1517.62	61.43%	38.11%	-33.16	9-6
2002-12-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-13	1512.13	1469.08	63.50%	36.05%	+12.51	10-6
2002-09-08	Indianapolis Colts	L 25-28	1499.06	1492.39	58.54%	41.00%	-13.27	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-16	1485.79	1497.99	40.24%	59.31%	+20.54	1-1
2002-09-29	New York Jets	W 28-3	1506.33	1475.43	61.87%	37.68%	+24.71	2-1
2002-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-25	1531.04	1639.46	42.14%	57.40%	+13.01	3-1
2002-10-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-23	1544.05	1434.63	57.54%	42.00%	-22.60	3-2
2002-10-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1521.45	1522.29	41.82%	57.73%	-14.50	3-3
2002-10-27	Houston Texans	L 19-21	1506.95	1246.16	85.68%	13.86%	-15.87	3-4
2002-11-03	@ New York Giants	L 17-24	1491.08	1464.54	45.70%	53.85%	-15.84	3-5
2002-11-10	Washington Redskins	W 26-7	1475.24	1502.33	53.77%	45.77%	+26.15	4-5
2002-11-17	@ Houston Texans	W 24-21	1501.39	1217.65	78.57%	20.98%	+4.77	5-5
2002-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-21	1506.16	1396.25	57.61%	41.93%	-10.67	5-6
2002-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-25	1495.49	1588.90	44.26%	55.28%	-8.20	5-7
2002-12-08	Cleveland Browns	L 20-21	1487.29	1485.28	57.89%	41.65%	-7.58	5-8
2002-12-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-15	1479.71	1290.62	68.14%	31.40%	+15.42	6-8
2002-12-22	Tennessee Titans	L 10-28	1495.13	1570.33	46.86%	52.68%	-26.05	6-9
2002-12-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1469.08	1512.13	36.05%	63.50%	-12.51	6-10
2002-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 40-39	1490.80	1471.54	44.66%	54.89%	+7.19	1-0
2002-09-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-23	1497.99	1485.79	59.31%	40.24%	-20.54	1-1
2002-09-22	@ New England Patriots	L 38-41	1477.45	1643.08	21.77%	77.77%	-4.95	1-2
2002-09-29	Miami Dolphins	W 48-30	1472.50	1587.16	41.27%	58.28%	+32.37	2-2
2002-10-06	@ New York Jets	W 29-25	1504.87	1450.73	49.66%	49.89%	+13.07	3-2
2002-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-35	1517.94	1536.19	39.40%	60.14%	-5.17	3-3
2002-10-20	Denver Broncos	L 34-37	1512.77	1549.56	52.38%	47.16%	-11.88	3-4
2002-10-27	Oakland Raiders	W 20-10	1500.89	1583.77	45.76%	53.78%	+22.27	4-4
2002-11-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1523.16	1601.23	31.54%	68.00%	-8.28	4-5
2002-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 17-16	1514.88	1456.58	65.50%	34.05%	+4.47	5-5
2002-11-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 32-39	1519.35	1440.11	53.26%	46.28%	-18.46	5-6
2002-12-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 49-0	1500.89	1397.72	71.04%	28.51%	+26.20	6-6
2002-12-08	St. Louis Rams	W 49-10	1527.09	1571.37	51.31%	48.24%	+39.47	7-6
2002-12-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1566.56	1532.13	46.82%	52.72%	-16.24	7-7
2002-12-22	San Diego Chargers	W 24-22	1550.32	1462.26	69.23%	30.31%	+5.63	8-7
2002-12-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-24	1555.95	1651.73	29.38%	70.16%	-18.89	8-8
2002-09-08	Detroit Lions	W 49-21	1523.81	1442.65	68.39%	31.16%	+21.64	1-0
2002-09-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-13	1545.45	1505.66	47.59%	51.95%	+19.24	2-0
2002-09-22	New York Jets	W 30-3	1564.69	1497.90	66.58%	32.96%	+22.47	3-0
2002-09-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-48	1587.16	1472.50	58.28%	41.27%	-32.37	3-1
2002-10-06	New England Patriots	W 26-13	1554.79	1628.21	47.12%	52.43%	+24.76	4-1
2002-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-22	1579.55	1559.71	44.74%	54.81%	+10.15	5-1
2002-10-20	Buffalo Bills	L 10-23	1589.70	1446.33	75.51%	24.04%	-35.64	5-2
2002-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1554.06	1636.18	31.04%	68.50%	-15.24	5-3
2002-11-10	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1538.82	1496.06	48.02%	51.53%	-10.90	5-4
2002-11-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-7	1527.92	1512.21	59.79%	39.75%	+22.72	6-4
2002-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 30-3	1550.64	1513.94	62.65%	36.90%	+25.15	7-4
2002-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-38	1575.79	1434.47	61.94%	37.61%	-33.43	7-5
2002-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 27-9	1542.36	1434.38	71.60%	27.95%	+15.56	8-5
2002-12-15	Oakland Raiders	W 23-17	1557.92	1655.98	43.60%	55.94%	+17.94	9-5
2002-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1575.86	1413.25	64.77%	34.78%	-14.68	9-6
2002-12-29	@ New England Patriots	L 24-27	1561.18	1549.38	43.60%	55.95%	-9.90	9-7
2002-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-27	1463.93	1558.24	29.56%	69.99%	-7.76	0-1
2002-09-15	Buffalo Bills	L 39-45	1456.17	1423.48	62.11%	37.44%	-19.92	0-2
2002-09-22	Carolina Panthers	L 14-21	1436.25	1469.29	52.92%	46.62%	-18.34	0-3
2002-09-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-48	1417.91	1449.24	37.62%	61.93%	-24.66	0-4
2002-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1393.25	1402.84	56.26%	43.29%	+15.01	1-4
2002-10-20	@ New York Jets	L 7-20	1408.26	1437.66	37.88%	61.67%	-17.91	1-5
2002-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 25-7	1390.35	1493.17	42.93%	56.61%	+31.45	2-5
2002-11-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-38	1421.80	1614.77	19.21%	80.33%	-9.45	2-6
2002-11-10	New York Giants	L 20-27	1412.35	1480.38	47.89%	51.65%	-16.60	2-7
2002-11-17	Green Bay Packers	W 31-21	1395.75	1661.10	22.79%	76.76%	+31.78	3-7
2002-11-24	@ New England Patriots	L 17-24	1427.53	1578.78	23.22%	76.33%	-8.07	3-8
2002-12-01	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-30	1419.46	1568.61	36.55%	62.99%	-11.74	3-9
2002-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-26	1407.72	1618.01	17.71%	81.83%	-4.66	3-10
2002-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-31	1403.06	1569.05	21.74%	77.81%	+10.19	4-10
2002-12-21	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1413.25	1575.86	34.78%	64.77%	+14.68	5-10
2002-12-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-36	1427.93	1325.58	56.55%	43.00%	+7.97	6-10
2002-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-14	1583.29	1579.85	58.09%	41.45%	+21.74	1-0
2002-09-15	@ New York Jets	W 44-7	1605.03	1535.95	51.80%	47.74%	+38.05	2-0
2002-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-38	1643.08	1477.45	77.77%	21.77%	+4.95	3-0
2002-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1648.03	1541.00	57.21%	42.34%	-19.82	3-1
2002-10-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-26	1628.21	1554.79	52.43%	47.12%	-24.75	3-2
2002-10-13	Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1603.46	1588.48	59.69%	39.85%	-33.16	3-3
2002-10-27	Denver Broncos	L 16-24	1570.30	1561.44	58.85%	40.70%	-21.79	3-4
2002-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 38-7	1548.51	1492.80	49.88%	49.66%	+36.22	4-4
2002-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-30	1584.73	1451.77	60.80%	38.74%	+8.80	5-4
2002-11-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-27	1593.53	1589.26	42.54%	57.01%	-14.75	5-5
2002-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-17	1578.78	1427.53	76.33%	23.22%	+8.07	6-5
2002-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-12	1586.85	1359.71	72.66%	26.89%	+9.98	7-5
2002-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 27-17	1596.83	1467.90	73.96%	25.59%	+10.62	8-5
2002-12-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-24	1607.45	1542.69	51.18%	48.36%	-27.64	8-6
2002-12-22	New York Jets	L 17-30	1579.81	1529.37	64.47%	35.07%	-30.43	8-7
2002-12-29	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1549.38	1561.18	55.95%	43.60%	+9.90	9-7
2002-09-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1464.56	1534.77	32.53%	67.02%	+21.48	1-0
2002-09-15	Green Bay Packers	W 35-20	1486.04	1571.65	45.37%	54.17%	+27.48	2-0
2002-09-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 29-23	1513.52	1571.27	34.12%	65.42%	+20.97	3-0
2002-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-26	1534.49	1384.37	63.12%	36.42%	-18.47	3-1
2002-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 32-29	1516.02	1540.12	54.20%	45.35%	+10.29	4-1
2002-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 43-27	1526.31	1508.44	44.46%	55.09%	+28.85	5-1
2002-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-27	1555.16	1593.23	52.20%	47.35%	+17.55	6-1
2002-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 35-37	1572.71	1495.67	67.87%	31.67%	-12.56	6-2
2002-11-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-24	1560.15	1423.96	61.24%	38.30%	+15.88	7-2
2002-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-24	1576.03	1519.15	50.05%	49.50%	-17.35	7-3
2002-11-24	Cleveland Browns	L 15-24	1558.68	1484.95	67.46%	32.09%	-26.49	7-4
2002-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1532.19	1652.74	40.45%	59.09%	+13.40	8-4
2002-12-08	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 37-25	1545.59	1504.12	47.83%	51.71%	+23.46	9-4
2002-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-32	1569.05	1403.06	77.81%	21.74%	-10.18	9-5
2002-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1558.87	1275.20	78.56%	20.99%	-27.21	9-6
2002-12-29	Carolina Panthers	L 6-10	1531.66	1419.02	72.13%	27.41%	-18.88	9-7
2002-09-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-16	1489.38	1553.32	48.48%	51.07%	-11.00	0-1
2002-09-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 26-21	1478.38	1594.43	27.02%	72.52%	+21.23	1-1
2002-09-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 9-6	1499.61	1457.45	63.38%	36.17%	+8.21	2-1
2002-09-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-21	1507.82	1458.17	49.01%	50.54%	-24.02	2-2
2002-10-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1483.80	1448.66	46.93%	52.62%	+13.78	3-2
2002-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-17	1497.58	1443.57	64.94%	34.61%	-22.49	3-3
2002-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1475.09	1643.72	21.48%	78.06%	-10.55	3-4
2002-11-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-17	1464.54	1491.08	53.85%	45.70%	+15.84	4-4
2002-11-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-20	1480.38	1412.35	51.65%	47.89%	+16.60	5-4
2002-11-17	Washington Redskins	W 19-17	1496.98	1476.18	60.49%	39.05%	+7.24	6-4
2002-11-24	@ Houston Texans	L 14-16	1504.22	1212.88	79.28%	20.26%	-14.68	6-5
2002-12-01	Tennessee Titans	L 29-32	1489.54	1511.48	54.51%	45.04%	-12.36	6-6
2002-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-21	1477.18	1464.27	43.76%	55.79%	+17.90	7-6
2002-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-7	1495.08	1415.61	68.18%	31.37%	+22.54	8-6
2002-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 44-27	1517.62	1545.29	38.11%	61.43%	+33.16	9-6
2002-12-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-7	1550.78	1700.21	36.52%	63.03%	+14.29	10-6
2002-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-31	1521.27	1438.16	53.82%	45.73%	+14.68	1-0
2002-09-15	New England Patriots	L 7-44	1535.95	1605.03	47.74%	51.80%	-38.05	1-1
2002-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-30	1497.90	1564.69	32.96%	66.58%	-22.47	1-2
2002-09-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-28	1475.43	1506.33	37.68%	61.87%	-24.70	1-3
2002-10-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 25-29	1450.73	1504.87	49.89%	49.66%	-13.07	1-4
2002-10-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-7	1437.66	1408.26	61.67%	37.88%	+17.91	2-4
2002-10-27	Cleveland Browns	L 21-24	1455.57	1468.30	55.82%	43.73%	-12.66	2-5
2002-11-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 44-13	1442.91	1562.57	26.61%	72.93%	+53.15	3-5
2002-11-10	Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1496.06	1538.82	51.53%	48.02%	+10.90	4-5
2002-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-14	1506.96	1389.22	58.70%	40.84%	+22.07	5-5
2002-11-24	Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1529.03	1452.11	67.86%	31.69%	+17.64	6-5
2002-12-02	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-26	1546.67	1623.03	31.76%	67.79%	-10.20	6-6
2002-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 19-13	1536.47	1546.02	56.26%	43.28%	+13.89	7-6
2002-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-20	1550.36	1418.81	60.61%	38.94%	-20.99	7-7
2002-12-22	@ New England Patriots	W 30-17	1529.37	1579.81	35.07%	64.47%	+30.43	8-7
2002-12-29	Green Bay Packers	W 42-17	1559.80	1648.39	44.95%	54.60%	+35.74	9-7
2002-09-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-17	1553.78	1501.63	64.70%	34.85%	+17.10	1-0
2002-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1570.88	1558.11	43.74%	55.81%	+26.35	2-0
2002-09-29	Tennessee Titans	W 52-25	1597.23	1483.28	72.28%	27.26%	+18.60	3-0
2002-10-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 49-31	1615.83	1453.83	64.69%	34.86%	+19.40	4-0
2002-10-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-28	1635.23	1510.84	59.63%	39.92%	-30.24	4-1
2002-10-20	San Diego Chargers	L 21-27	1604.99	1541.35	66.18%	33.36%	-21.22	4-2
2002-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-20	1583.77	1500.89	53.78%	45.76%	-22.27	4-3
2002-11-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1561.50	1589.05	53.71%	45.84%	-12.18	4-4
2002-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-10	1549.32	1583.23	37.27%	62.28%	+39.94	5-4
2002-11-17	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1589.26	1593.53	57.01%	42.54%	+14.75	6-4
2002-11-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 41-20	1604.01	1416.74	67.91%	31.63%	+19.02	7-4
2002-12-02	New York Jets	W 26-20	1623.03	1546.67	67.79%	31.76%	+10.21	8-4
2002-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-7	1633.24	1500.54	60.77%	38.78%	+22.74	9-4
2002-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-23	1655.98	1557.92	55.94%	43.60%	-17.95	9-5
2002-12-22	Denver Broncos	W 28-16	1638.03	1548.36	69.43%	30.12%	+13.70	10-5
2002-12-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-0	1651.73	1555.95	70.16%	29.38%	+18.89	11-5
2002-09-08	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1596.12	1504.67	55.00%	44.54%	-12.48	0-1
2002-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-7	1583.64	1528.97	49.73%	49.81%	+35.74	1-1
2002-09-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 44-13	1619.38	1447.58	78.37%	21.17%	+15.49	2-1
2002-09-29	Houston Texans	W 35-17	1634.87	1272.62	91.31%	8.24%	+4.59	3-1
2002-10-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 25-28	1639.46	1531.04	57.40%	42.14%	-13.01	3-2
2002-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1626.45	1624.53	57.88%	41.67%	+17.27	4-2
2002-10-28	New York Giants	W 17-3	1643.72	1475.09	78.06%	21.48%	+10.56	5-2
2002-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1654.28	1461.72	68.57%	30.98%	+9.95	6-2
2002-11-10	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-35	1664.23	1463.61	81.01%	18.54%	-49.74	6-3
2002-11-17	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-14	1614.49	1429.58	79.60%	19.94%	+12.83	7-3
2002-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-17	1627.32	1596.49	46.31%	53.24%	+31.95	8-3
2002-12-01	St. Louis Rams	W 10-3	1659.27	1582.37	67.86%	31.69%	+11.00	9-3
2002-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1670.27	1448.78	72.01%	27.53%	+9.57	10-3
2002-12-15	Washington Redskins	W 34-21	1679.84	1446.37	83.69%	15.85%	+7.51	11-3
2002-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-3	1687.35	1393.06	79.55%	19.99%	+12.86	12-3
2002-12-28	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1700.21	1550.78	63.03%	36.52%	-14.29	12-4
2002-09-09	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1579.85	1583.29	41.45%	58.09%	-21.74	0-1
2002-09-15	Oakland Raiders	L 17-30	1558.11	1570.88	55.81%	43.74%	-26.35	0-2
2002-09-29	Cleveland Browns	W 16-13	1531.76	1494.20	62.76%	36.78%	+8.36	1-2
2002-10-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 29-32	1540.12	1516.02	45.35%	54.20%	-10.30	1-3
2002-10-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-7	1529.82	1339.83	68.25%	31.29%	+21.34	2-3
2002-10-21	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-10	1551.16	1520.49	61.84%	37.71%	+20.98	3-3
2002-10-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 31-18	1572.14	1536.80	46.95%	52.59%	+24.83	4-3
2002-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1596.97	1480.95	58.46%	41.08%	+9.33	5-3
2002-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	T 34-34	1606.30	1517.88	69.27%	30.27%	-1.27	5-3
2002-11-17	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-31	1605.03	1496.22	57.46%	42.09%	-21.28	5-4
2002-11-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-21	1583.75	1322.84	85.69%	13.86%	+5.15	6-4
2002-12-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 25-23	1588.90	1495.49	55.28%	44.26%	+8.20	7-4
2002-12-08	Houston Texans	L 6-24	1597.10	1222.03	91.85%	7.70%	-51.03	7-5
2002-12-15	Carolina Panthers	W 30-14	1546.07	1412.42	74.47%	25.07%	+13.17	8-5
2002-12-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-7	1559.24	1665.19	28.18%	71.36%	+29.54	9-5
2002-12-29	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-31	1588.78	1480.57	71.62%	27.92%	+6.35	10-5
2002-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-6	1474.21	1445.90	45.95%	53.60%	+37.14	1-0
2002-09-15	Houston Texans	W 24-3	1511.35	1301.24	81.82%	17.73%	+10.67	2-0
2002-09-22	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-15	1522.02	1477.15	48.32%	51.22%	+18.98	3-0
2002-09-29	New England Patriots	W 21-14	1541.00	1648.03	42.34%	57.21%	+19.82	4-0
2002-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-26	1560.82	1535.08	45.58%	53.97%	-24.63	4-1
2002-10-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-34	1536.19	1517.94	60.14%	39.40%	+5.16	5-1
2002-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-21	1541.35	1604.99	33.36%	66.18%	+21.22	6-1
2002-11-03	New York Jets	L 13-44	1562.57	1442.91	72.93%	26.61%	-53.15	6-2
2002-11-10	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-28	1509.42	1580.49	32.42%	67.12%	-8.50	6-3
2002-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1500.92	1609.51	42.12%	57.43%	+13.02	7-3
2002-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-30	1513.94	1550.64	36.90%	62.65%	-25.14	7-4
2002-12-01	Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1488.80	1557.77	47.76%	51.79%	+11.74	8-4
2002-12-08	Oakland Raiders	L 7-27	1500.54	1633.24	38.78%	60.77%	-22.74	8-5
2002-12-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-20	1477.80	1457.28	44.84%	54.71%	-15.54	8-6
2002-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-24	1462.26	1550.32	30.31%	69.23%	-5.63	8-7
2002-12-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 28-31	1456.63	1493.31	52.40%	47.15%	-11.89	8-8
2002-09-05	@ New York Giants	W 16-13	1553.32	1489.38	51.07%	48.48%	+11.00	1-0
2002-09-15	Denver Broncos	L 14-24	1564.32	1522.83	63.29%	36.26%	-26.20	1-1
2002-09-22	Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1538.12	1493.23	63.74%	35.80%	+14.85	2-1
2002-10-06	St. Louis Rams	W 37-13	1552.97	1536.29	59.93%	39.62%	+25.45	3-1
2002-10-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 28-21	1578.42	1473.90	56.85%	42.69%	+14.81	4-1
2002-10-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-35	1593.23	1555.16	47.35%	52.20%	-17.55	4-2
2002-10-27	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-28	1575.68	1503.05	67.32%	32.22%	+13.37	5-2
2002-11-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1589.05	1561.50	45.84%	53.71%	+12.18	6-2
2002-11-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-13	1601.23	1523.16	68.00%	31.54%	+8.28	7-2
2002-11-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1609.51	1500.92	57.43%	42.12%	-13.02	7-3
2002-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-38	1596.49	1627.32	53.24%	46.31%	-31.95	7-4
2002-12-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-24	1564.54	1458.57	71.36%	28.18%	+9.79	8-4
2002-12-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-27	1574.33	1425.19	62.99%	36.56%	+9.59	9-4
2002-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 14-20	1583.92	1622.67	52.10%	47.44%	-16.72	9-5
2002-12-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 17-14	1567.20	1376.06	68.39%	31.15%	+7.08	10-5
2002-12-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 20-31	1574.28	1505.48	51.76%	47.78%	-7.49	10-6
2002-09-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-31	1501.63	1553.78	34.85%	64.70%	-17.11	0-1
2002-09-15	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-24	1484.52	1450.08	62.35%	37.20%	-27.07	0-2
2002-09-22	@ New York Giants	L 6-9	1457.45	1499.61	36.17%	63.38%	-8.21	0-3
2002-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 48-23	1449.24	1417.91	61.93%	37.62%	+24.66	1-3
2002-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-28	1473.90	1578.42	42.69%	56.85%	-14.80	1-4
2002-10-20	@ St. Louis Rams	L 20-37	1459.10	1541.07	31.06%	68.49%	-16.81	1-5
2002-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1442.29	1433.11	43.23%	56.32%	+12.78	2-5
2002-11-03	Washington Redskins	L 3-14	1455.07	1478.76	54.26%	45.29%	-23.57	2-6
2002-11-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-6	1431.50	1467.07	37.05%	62.50%	+37.49	3-6
2002-11-17	Denver Broncos	L 9-31	1468.99	1543.30	46.99%	52.55%	-28.88	3-7
2002-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 39-32	1440.11	1519.35	46.28%	53.26%	+18.46	4-7
2002-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-31	1458.57	1564.54	28.18%	71.36%	-9.79	4-8
2002-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-27	1448.78	1670.27	27.53%	72.01%	-9.56	4-9
2002-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1439.22	1558.53	26.65%	72.89%	+23.37	5-9
2002-12-22	St. Louis Rams	W 30-10	1462.59	1536.21	47.09%	52.46%	+30.72	6-9
2002-12-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-28	1493.31	1456.63	47.15%	52.40%	+11.89	7-9
2002-09-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-23	1614.47	1502.78	57.86%	41.69%	-20.04	0-1
2002-09-15	New York Giants	L 21-26	1594.43	1478.38	72.52%	27.02%	-21.23	0-2
2002-09-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-26	1573.20	1552.70	44.83%	54.71%	-20.35	0-3
2002-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-13	1552.85	1432.10	73.05%	26.49%	-16.56	0-4
2002-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-37	1536.29	1552.97	39.62%	59.93%	-25.45	0-5
2002-10-13	Oakland Raiders	W 28-13	1510.84	1635.23	39.92%	59.63%	+30.23	1-5
2002-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-20	1541.07	1459.10	68.49%	31.06%	+16.81	2-5
2002-11-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-14	1557.88	1489.68	51.68%	47.87%	+22.61	3-5
2002-11-10	San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1580.49	1509.42	67.12%	32.42%	+8.51	4-5
2002-11-18	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1589.00	1442.97	75.79%	23.76%	+6.97	5-5
2002-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1595.97	1468.94	59.99%	39.56%	-13.60	5-6
2002-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-10	1582.37	1659.27	31.69%	67.86%	-11.00	5-7
2002-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-49	1571.37	1527.09	48.24%	51.31%	-39.47	5-8
2002-12-15	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-28	1531.90	1380.37	76.36%	23.19%	+4.31	6-8
2002-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-30	1536.21	1462.59	52.46%	47.09%	-30.73	6-9
2002-12-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-20	1505.48	1574.28	47.78%	51.76%	+7.50	7-9
2002-09-08	New Orleans Saints	L 20-26	1534.77	1464.56	67.02%	32.53%	-21.49	0-1
2002-09-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 25-0	1513.28	1532.07	39.33%	60.22%	+39.42	1-1
2002-09-23	St. Louis Rams	W 26-14	1552.70	1573.20	54.71%	44.83%	+20.35	2-1
2002-09-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-7	1573.05	1368.17	70.06%	29.48%	+20.47	3-1
2002-10-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-6	1593.52	1462.72	60.51%	39.04%	+19.16	4-1
2002-10-13	Cleveland Browns	W 17-3	1612.68	1470.18	75.42%	24.13%	+11.85	5-1
2002-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1624.53	1626.45	41.67%	57.88%	-17.27	5-2
2002-10-27	@ Carolina Panthers	W 12-9	1607.26	1431.47	66.47%	33.08%	+7.51	6-2
2002-11-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-24	1614.77	1421.80	80.33%	19.21%	+9.45	7-2
2002-11-17	Carolina Panthers	W 23-10	1624.22	1408.07	82.32%	17.23%	+8.16	8-2
2002-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 21-7	1632.38	1629.33	58.04%	41.51%	+20.36	9-2
2002-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1652.74	1532.19	59.09%	40.45%	-13.40	9-3
2002-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-10	1639.34	1580.35	65.58%	33.96%	+21.82	10-3
2002-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1661.16	1340.89	81.84%	17.71%	+4.03	11-3
2002-12-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1665.19	1559.24	71.36%	28.18%	-29.53	11-4
2002-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 15-0	1635.66	1420.04	71.33%	28.21%	+14.34	12-4
2002-09-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1504.67	1596.12	44.54%	55.00%	+12.48	1-0
2002-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-21	1517.15	1427.29	54.78%	44.77%	-20.29	1-1
2002-09-22	Cleveland Browns	L 28-31	1496.86	1480.63	59.87%	39.68%	-13.58	1-2
2002-09-29	@ Oakland Raiders	L 25-52	1483.28	1597.23	27.26%	72.28%	-18.59	1-3
2002-10-06	Washington Redskins	L 14-31	1464.69	1478.38	55.68%	43.87%	-30.06	1-4
2002-10-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-14	1434.63	1544.05	42.00%	57.54%	+22.60	2-4
2002-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-24	1457.23	1318.49	61.59%	37.96%	+12.19	3-4
2002-11-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-15	1469.42	1485.79	39.66%	59.88%	+22.18	4-4
2002-11-10	Houston Texans	W 17-10	1491.60	1222.27	86.26%	13.29%	+4.62	5-4
2002-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-23	1496.22	1605.03	42.09%	57.46%	+21.28	6-4
2002-11-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 12-13	1517.50	1489.50	45.90%	53.64%	-6.02	6-5
2002-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 32-29	1511.48	1489.54	45.04%	54.51%	+12.36	7-5
2002-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1523.84	1548.81	54.08%	45.47%	+18.85	8-5
2002-12-16	New England Patriots	W 24-7	1542.69	1607.45	48.36%	51.18%	+27.64	9-5
2002-12-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-10	1570.33	1495.13	52.68%	46.86%	+26.05	10-5
2002-12-29	@ Houston Texans	W 13-3	1596.38	1254.37	83.59%	15.96%	+6.63	11-5
2002-09-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-23	1516.09	1462.96	64.82%	34.72%	+12.88	1-0
2002-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-37	1528.97	1583.64	49.81%	49.73%	-35.74	1-1
2002-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1493.23	1538.12	35.80%	63.74%	-14.85	1-2
2002-10-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-14	1478.38	1464.69	43.87%	55.68%	+30.06	2-2
2002-10-13	New Orleans Saints	L 27-43	1508.44	1526.31	55.09%	44.46%	-28.85	2-3
2002-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-30	1479.59	1621.64	24.17%	75.37%	-14.55	2-4
2002-10-27	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-21	1465.04	1499.51	52.72%	46.83%	+13.72	3-4
2002-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 14-3	1478.76	1455.07	45.29%	54.26%	+23.57	4-4
2002-11-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-26	1502.33	1475.24	45.77%	53.77%	-26.15	4-5
2002-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 17-19	1476.18	1496.98	39.05%	60.49%	-7.24	4-6
2002-11-24	St. Louis Rams	W 20-17	1468.94	1595.97	39.56%	59.99%	+13.60	5-6
2002-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1482.54	1406.92	52.74%	46.80%	-18.27	5-7
2002-12-08	New York Giants	L 21-27	1464.27	1477.18	55.79%	43.76%	-17.90	5-8
2002-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-34	1446.37	1679.84	15.85%	83.69%	-7.51	5-9
2002-12-22	Houston Texans	W 26-10	1438.86	1265.41	78.53%	21.02%	+11.04	6-9
2002-12-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-14	1449.90	1380.20	66.95%	32.59%	+10.48	7-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2003-01-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1527.67	1612.64	30.89%	69.11%	+40.30	1-0
2003-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-20	1567.97	1685.92	26.99%	73.01%	-13.16	1-1
2003-01-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 33-36	1504.04	1595.13	30.14%	69.86%	-6.81	0-1
2003-01-04	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-27	1612.64	1527.67	69.11%	30.89%	-40.30	0-1
2003-01-04	@ New York Jets	L 0-41	1524.64	1595.54	32.64%	67.36%	-27.25	0-1
2003-01-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 38-39	1565.07	1566.79	41.92%	58.08%	-5.47	0-1
2003-01-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 41-0	1595.54	1524.64	67.36%	32.64%	+27.26	1-0
2003-01-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-30	1622.80	1670.62	35.63%	64.37%	-20.78	1-1
2003-01-12	New York Jets	W 30-10	1670.62	1622.80	64.37%	35.63%	+20.78	1-0
2003-01-19	Tennessee Titans	W 41-24	1691.40	1612.50	68.36%	31.64%	+17.01	2-0
2003-01-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-48	1708.41	1703.93	50.64%	49.36%	-34.32	2-1
2003-01-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-6	1685.92	1567.97	73.01%	26.99%	+13.17	1-0
2003-01-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-27	1699.09	1670.72	61.77%	38.23%	-33.21	1-1
2003-01-05	Cleveland Browns	W 36-33	1595.13	1504.04	69.86%	30.14%	+6.80	1-0
2003-01-11	@ Tennessee Titans	L 31-34	1601.93	1603.01	42.01%	57.99%	-9.48	1-1
2003-01-05	New York Giants	W 39-38	1566.79	1565.07	58.08%	41.92%	+5.46	1-0
2003-01-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-31	1572.25	1650.00	31.78%	68.22%	-20.72	1-1
2003-01-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-6	1650.00	1572.25	68.22%	31.78%	+20.72	1-0
2003-01-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1670.72	1699.09	38.23%	61.77%	+33.21	2-0
2003-01-26	Oakland Raiders	W 48-21	1703.93	1708.41	49.36%	50.64%	+34.31	3-0
2003-01-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-31	1603.01	1601.93	57.99%	42.01%	+9.49	1-0
2003-01-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-41	1612.50	1691.40	31.64%	68.36%	-17.01	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2002-12-08	7.70%	Houston Texans	1222.03	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1597.10	6
2	2002-10-27	13.86%	Houston Texans	1246.16	21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1506.95	19
3	2002-11-10	18.54%	Indianapolis Colts	1463.61	35	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1664.23	13
4	2002-11-24	20.26%	@ Houston Texans	1212.88	16	New York Giants	1504.22	14
5	2002-12-22	20.99%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1275.20	20	New Orleans Saints	1558.87	13
6	2002-12-15	21.74%	Minnesota Vikings	1403.06	32	@ New Orleans Saints	1569.05	31
7	2002-11-17	22.79%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1395.75	31	Green Bay Packers	1661.10	21
8	2002-12-01	24.01%	Carolina Panthers	1367.80	13	@ Cleveland Browns	1511.44	6
9	2002-10-20	24.04%	Buffalo Bills	1446.33	23	@ Miami Dolphins	1589.70	10
10	2002-09-29	26.49%	Dallas Cowboys	1432.10	13	@ St. Louis Rams	1552.85	10
11	2002-11-03	26.61%	New York Jets	1442.91	44	@ San Diego Chargers	1562.57	13
12	2002-12-15	26.65%	Seattle Seahawks	1439.22	30	@ Atlanta Falcons	1558.53	24
13	2002-09-15	27.02%	New York Giants	1478.38	26	@ St. Louis Rams	1594.43	21
14	2002-12-29	27.41%	Carolina Panthers	1419.02	10	@ New Orleans Saints	1531.66	6
15	2002-12-23	28.18%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1559.24	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1665.19	7
16	2003-01-04 *	30.89%	Atlanta Falcons	1527.67	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1612.64	7
17	2002-10-27	31.67%	Atlanta Falcons	1495.67	37	@ New Orleans Saints	1572.71	35
18	2002-11-24	32.09%	Cleveland Browns	1484.95	24	@ New Orleans Saints	1558.68	15
19	2002-09-08	32.53%	New Orleans Saints	1464.56	26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1534.77	20
20	2002-09-08	32.73%	@ Houston Texans	1275.00	19	Dallas Cowboys	1453.53	10
21	2002-10-20	33.36%	San Diego Chargers	1541.35	27	@ Oakland Raiders	1604.99	21
22	2002-09-22	34.12%	New Orleans Saints	1513.52	29	@ Chicago Bears	1571.27	23
23	2002-10-13	34.61%	Atlanta Falcons	1443.57	17	@ New York Giants	1497.58	10
24	2002-12-21	34.78%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1413.25	20	Miami Dolphins	1575.86	17
25	2002-12-22	35.07%	New York Jets	1529.37	30	@ New England Patriots	1579.81	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2002-11-03	53.15	New York Jets	44	1442.91	26.61%	@ San Diego Chargers	13	1562.57	72.93%
2	2002-12-08	51.03	Houston Texans	24	1222.03	7.70%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1597.10	91.85%
3	2002-11-10	49.74	Indianapolis Colts	35	1463.61	18.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1664.23	81.01%
4	2003-01-04 *	40.30	Atlanta Falcons	27	1527.67	30.89%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1612.64	69.11%
5	2002-11-11	39.94	Oakland Raiders	34	1549.32	37.27%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1583.23	62.28%
6	2002-11-03	39.76	Cincinnati Bengals	38	1306.30	48.24%	@ Houston Texans	3	1262.03	51.31%
7	2002-12-08	39.47	@ Kansas City Chiefs	49	1527.09	51.31%	St. Louis Rams	10	1571.37	48.24%
8	2002-09-15	39.42	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25	1513.28	39.33%	@ Baltimore Ravens	0	1532.07	60.22%
9	2002-09-15	38.05	New England Patriots	44	1605.03	51.80%	@ New York Jets	7	1535.95	47.74%
10	2002-11-10	37.49	Seattle Seahawks	27	1431.50	37.05%	@ Arizona Cardinals	6	1467.07	62.50%
11	2002-09-08	37.15	San Diego Chargers	34	1474.21	45.95%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	6	1445.90	53.60%
12	2002-11-03	36.22	New England Patriots	38	1548.51	49.88%	@ Buffalo Bills	7	1492.80	49.66%
13	2002-12-29	35.75	@ New York Jets	42	1559.80	44.95%	Green Bay Packers	17	1648.39	54.60%
14	2002-09-16	35.74	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1583.64	49.73%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1528.97	49.81%
15	2002-10-20	35.64	Buffalo Bills	23	1446.33	24.04%	@ Miami Dolphins	10	1589.70	75.51%
16	2003-01-26 *	34.32	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	1703.93	49.36%	Oakland Raiders	21	1708.41	50.64%
17	2002-12-01	33.43	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1434.47	37.61%	Miami Dolphins	21	1575.79	61.94%
18	2003-01-19 *	33.21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	1670.72	38.23%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1699.09	61.77%
19	2002-10-13	33.16	Green Bay Packers	28	1588.48	39.85%	@ New England Patriots	10	1603.46	59.69%
20	2002-12-22	33.16	New York Giants	44	1517.62	38.11%	@ Indianapolis Colts	27	1545.29	61.43%
21	2002-09-29	32.37	@ Kansas City Chiefs	48	1472.50	41.27%	Miami Dolphins	30	1587.16	58.28%
22	2002-11-24	32.11	Atlanta Falcons	41	1536.50	61.30%	@ Carolina Panthers	0	1399.91	38.25%
23	2002-11-25	31.95	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1627.32	46.31%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1596.49	53.24%
24	2002-11-17	31.78	@ Minnesota Vikings	31	1395.75	22.79%	Green Bay Packers	21	1661.10	76.76%
25	2002-10-27	31.45	@ Minnesota Vikings	25	1390.35	42.93%	Chicago Bears	7	1493.17	56.61%