1999 NFL Season

248 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

St. Louis Rams

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1951

Runner-Up

Tennessee Titans

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Indianapolis Colts

3.85 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.15 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

3.46 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.46 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Jacksonville Jaguars Division	14	2	.875	—	396	217	+179	11.86	+2.14
2	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	13	3	.812	1	392	324	+68	9.54	+3.46
3	Baltimore Ravens	8	8	.500	6	324	277	+47	7.98	+0.02
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	.375	8	317	320	-3	8.26	-2.26
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	10	283	460	-177	5.30	-1.30
6	Cleveland Browns	2	14	.125	12	217	437	-220	2.92	-0.92

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	13	3	.812	—	423	333	+90	9.15	+3.85
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	320	229	+91	9.04	+1.96
3	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	9	7	.562	4	326	336	-10	8.99	+0.01
4	New York Jets	8	8	.500	5	308	309	-1	7.85	+0.15
5	New England Patriots	8	8	.500	5	299	284	+15	8.36	-0.36

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	9	7	.562	—	338	298	+40	8.99	+0.01
2	Kansas City Chiefs	9	7	.562	—	390	322	+68	8.57	+0.43
3	Oakland Raiders	8	8	.500	1	390	329	+61	7.50	+0.50
4	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	1	269	316	-47	6.78	+1.22
5	Denver Broncos	6	10	.375	3	314	318	-4	7.93	-1.93

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	11	5	.688	—	270	235	+35	8.72	+2.28
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	399	335	+64	9.63	+0.37
3	Detroit Lions Playoffs	8	8	.500	3	322	323	-1	8.06	-0.06
4	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	3	357	341	+16	8.84	-0.84
5	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	5	272	341	-69	6.37	-0.37

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	10	6	.625	—	443	377	+66	8.91	+1.09
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	8	8	.500	2	352	276	+76	9.55	-1.55
3	New York Giants	7	9	.438	3	299	358	-59	7.27	-0.27
4	Arizona Cardinals	6	10	.375	4	245	382	-137	6.70	-0.70
5	Philadelphia Eagles	5	11	.312	5	272	357	-85	4.91	+0.09

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Rams Division	13	3	.812	—	526	242	+284	11.17	+1.83
2	Carolina Panthers	8	8	.500	5	421	381	+40	7.96	+0.04
3	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	8	285	380	-95	7.32	-2.32
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	12	.250	9	295	453	-158	7.46	-3.46
5	New Orleans Saints	3	13	.188	10	260	434	-174	6.10	-3.10

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Tennessee Titans 22

Buffalo Bills 16

Jan 8

Miami Dolphins 20

Seattle Seahawks 17

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Jacksonville Jaguars 62

Miami Dolphins 7

Jan 15

Tennessee Titans 19

Indianapolis Colts 16

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Tennessee Titans 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Jan 23

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 27

Detroit Lions 13

Jan 8

Minnesota Vikings 27

Dallas Cowboys 10

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

Washington Redskins 13

Jan 15

St. Louis Rams 49

Minnesota Vikings 37

Jan 16

Conference Championship

St. Louis Rams 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

Jan 23

Super Bowl

St. Louis Rams 23

Tennessee Titans 16

Jan 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1672	13	11.17	+1.83	91.76%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC Central	1669	14	11.86	+2.14	95.88%	4	9	11	12	13	14	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1652	11	9.04	+1.96	90.18%	3	6	8	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1640	10	9.63	+0.37	67.64%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC Central	1627	13	9.54	+3.46	98.88%	3	6	8	10	11	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1623	13	9.15	+3.85	99.27%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1614	11	8.72	+2.28	93.12%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1582	8	7.85	+0.15	63.77%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1563	8	7.50	+0.50	70.10%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1562	10	8.91	+1.09	80.35%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1557	9	8.57	+0.43	68.17%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1543	9	8.99	+0.01	60.31%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1542	8	8.84	-0.84	42.84%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1540	8	9.55	-1.55	28.80%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1538	6	7.93	-1.93	23.43%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1506	9	8.99	+0.01	60.19%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1506	8	8.36	-0.36	53.51%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC Central	1505	8	7.98	+0.02	61.56%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC West	1487	8	7.96	+0.04	61.96%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1473	8	8.06	-0.06	59.56%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1455	8	6.78	+1.22	82.33%	1	4	5	7	8	10	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1434	7	7.27	-0.27	55.13%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1433	6	8.26	-2.26	16.84%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1425	5	7.32	-2.32	17.10%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1419	6	6.37	-0.37	53.34%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1413	5	4.91	+0.09	64.25%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1372	6	6.70	-0.70	46.56%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1336	4	7.46	-3.46	6.14%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1326	3	6.10	-3.10	6.86%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1320	4	5.30	-1.30	33.46%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC Central	1164	2	2.92	-0.92	41.86%	0	1	2	3	4	5	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Jaguars	Steelers	Titans
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (0.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (1.6 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cardinals	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	49ers	Rams
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	13	9.15	+3.85
2	Tennessee Titans	13	9.54	+3.46
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11	8.72	+2.28
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	14	11.86	+2.14
5	Buffalo Bills	11	9.04	+1.96

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	4	7.46	-3.46
2	New Orleans Saints	3	6.10	-3.10
3	Atlanta Falcons	5	7.32	-2.32
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	8.26	-2.26
5	Denver Broncos	6	7.93	-1.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	11	Oct 17 – Dec 26	1 in 235
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	Nov 7 – Dec 12	1 in 43
3	Arizona Cardinals	4	Nov 14 – Dec 5	1 in 29
4	New York Jets	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 25
5	Washington Redskins	4	Sep 19 – Oct 17	1 in 21

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Nov 14 – Dec 18	1 in 470
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	Oct 10 – Dec 5	1 in 259
3	New Orleans Saints	7	Sep 19 – Nov 7	1 in 232
4	Seattle Seahawks	4	Nov 28 – Dec 19	1 in 78
5	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 24 – Nov 28	1 in 29

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Jacksonville Jaguars	72.72%	19.90%	5.68%	1.54%	0.16%	—
Tennessee Titans	17.29%	40.96%	24.39%	13.68%	3.44%	0.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.91%	20.55%	33.02%	29.97%	9.62%	0.93%
Baltimore Ravens	3.91%	16.89%	30.50%	34.80%	12.15%	1.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	1.65%	6.07%	17.66%	57.86%	16.60%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.05%	0.34%	2.35%	16.77%	80.48%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Indianapolis Colts	25.54%	22.98%	20.84%	17.64%	13.00%
Buffalo Bills	24.81%	22.39%	19.95%	17.94%	14.91%
Miami Dolphins	24.78%	21.87%	20.54%	18.20%	14.61%
New England Patriots	14.11%	18.09%	19.83%	23.21%	24.76%
New York Jets	10.76%	14.67%	18.84%	23.01%	32.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Seattle Seahawks	35.79%	25.04%	18.40%	13.09%	7.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	26.96%	24.01%	20.97%	16.74%	11.32%
Denver Broncos	18.34%	21.07%	21.57%	21.41%	17.61%
Oakland Raiders	13.21%	18.48%	21.87%	23.82%	22.62%
San Diego Chargers	5.70%	11.40%	17.19%	24.94%	40.77%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	38.98%	26.02%	17.80%	11.99%	5.21%
Green Bay Packers	23.57%	24.12%	22.03%	19.02%	11.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20.86%	24.59%	23.57%	20.04%	10.94%
Detroit Lions	13.66%	19.17%	23.31%	25.24%	18.62%
Chicago Bears	2.93%	6.10%	13.29%	23.71%	53.97%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	49.09%	27.77%	14.39%	6.93%	1.82%
Washington Redskins	32.36%	33.14%	20.32%	10.59%	3.59%
New York Giants	10.93%	20.70%	30.05%	25.38%	12.94%
Arizona Cardinals	6.72%	14.58%	25.20%	33.75%	19.75%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.90%	3.81%	10.04%	23.35%	61.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
St. Louis Rams	75.30%	16.53%	5.55%	2.06%	0.56%
Carolina Panthers	9.40%	29.17%	27.23%	20.98%	13.22%
San Francisco 49ers	7.02%	22.18%	26.32%	25.01%	19.47%
Atlanta Falcons	6.81%	22.76%	24.19%	25.72%	20.52%
New Orleans Saints	1.47%	9.36%	16.71%	26.23%	46.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	51.33%	19.07%	10.29%	6.93%	4.40%	2.66%	1.91%	1.36%	0.89%	0.46%	0.34%	0.23%	0.05%	0.08%	—	—
Tennessee Titans	9.91%	9.17%	10.52%	11.94%	10.67%	9.27%	7.56%	7.48%	6.27%	4.58%	4.09%	3.66%	2.35%	1.51%	0.86%	0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	5.99%	10.19%	9.52%	9.10%	8.78%	8.76%	8.26%	7.30%	6.61%	6.45%	5.52%	4.99%	4.31%	2.75%	1.35%	0.12%
Seattle Seahawks	5.13%	9.46%	11.74%	9.38%	8.46%	9.11%	7.25%	7.05%	6.72%	5.98%	5.62%	4.78%	4.48%	3.06%	1.68%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	5.63%	10.32%	8.59%	9.36%	8.54%	8.40%	7.99%	7.05%	6.41%	6.57%	5.84%	4.90%	4.96%	3.49%	1.86%	0.09%
Miami Dolphins	5.35%	10.14%	9.26%	8.65%	8.54%	7.76%	8.20%	7.01%	6.83%	6.99%	5.94%	5.09%	4.79%	3.46%	1.89%	0.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.98%	7.10%	8.83%	7.80%	7.98%	7.92%	7.82%	7.72%	7.51%	6.76%	6.80%	6.30%	5.40%	4.59%	3.25%	0.24%
New England Patriots	2.61%	6.02%	6.26%	6.47%	7.08%	7.04%	7.66%	7.89%	7.53%	8.59%	7.65%	7.49%	8.09%	5.78%	3.51%	0.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.85%	3.24%	4.81%	6.70%	7.07%	7.39%	8.68%	8.76%	9.99%	8.58%	8.59%	8.77%	6.03%	4.69%	3.06%	0.79%
Denver Broncos	2.05%	4.26%	5.86%	5.54%	6.58%	7.48%	7.34%	7.78%	8.23%	7.87%	8.05%	7.93%	7.99%	6.82%	5.69%	0.53%
Baltimore Ravens	1.83%	2.52%	3.66%	5.17%	6.56%	7.19%	8.09%	8.44%	9.16%	8.83%	10.20%	9.68%	7.08%	5.57%	4.60%	1.42%
New York Jets	2.11%	4.41%	4.49%	5.37%	5.61%	6.18%	6.50%	7.26%	7.48%	8.51%	7.79%	8.79%	9.88%	9.06%	5.93%	0.63%
Oakland Raiders	0.99%	2.90%	4.19%	4.77%	5.69%	6.07%	6.97%	7.23%	7.32%	8.39%	9.48%	8.72%	9.09%	9.38%	8.10%	0.71%
San Diego Chargers	0.20%	1.10%	1.85%	2.51%	3.44%	3.92%	4.59%	5.57%	6.56%	7.45%	8.51%	10.14%	12.34%	14.77%	14.91%	2.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%	0.10%	0.13%	0.31%	0.57%	0.85%	1.14%	2.02%	2.43%	3.74%	5.21%	7.44%	11.13%	19.76%	29.89%	15.24%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	—	—	0.03%	—	0.04%	0.08%	0.06%	0.25%	0.37%	1.09%	2.03%	5.23%	13.42%	77.40%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
St. Louis Rams	39.79%	22.15%	13.43%	7.56%	5.40%	3.78%	2.68%	1.71%	1.25%	0.92%	0.62%	0.27%	0.21%	0.18%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	12.39%	14.58%	15.17%	11.31%	10.01%	8.73%	6.53%	5.18%	4.79%	3.64%	2.63%	2.31%	1.28%	0.90%	0.55%
Minnesota Vikings	14.02%	15.21%	12.46%	11.19%	9.33%	8.12%	6.56%	5.67%	4.95%	3.91%	2.95%	2.71%	1.85%	0.79%	0.28%
Washington Redskins	6.67%	10.04%	11.55%	10.09%	10.83%	10.48%	8.40%	7.21%	6.54%	5.26%	4.40%	3.43%	2.40%	1.69%	1.01%
Green Bay Packers	7.21%	9.43%	9.94%	10.08%	9.02%	8.50%	8.73%	7.20%	6.45%	6.63%	5.09%	4.40%	3.62%	2.71%	0.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.21%	8.12%	9.51%	9.71%	9.27%	8.93%	8.60%	8.16%	6.90%	7.01%	5.23%	4.75%	3.83%	2.48%	1.29%
Detroit Lions	4.00%	5.33%	5.76%	7.98%	7.69%	7.42%	8.91%	8.67%	8.60%	7.96%	7.60%	6.25%	6.36%	4.82%	2.65%
Carolina Panthers	2.98%	3.98%	5.36%	7.56%	7.98%	9.24%	8.92%	8.95%	9.28%	8.16%	7.90%	6.63%	5.67%	4.69%	2.70%
San Francisco 49ers	2.10%	2.97%	3.61%	5.35%	7.34%	7.44%	7.77%	8.61%	8.98%	8.30%	9.18%	8.51%	7.74%	7.28%	4.82%
New York Giants	1.42%	2.67%	4.32%	5.07%	6.01%	7.12%	7.29%	9.04%	9.69%	8.98%	9.23%	9.48%	7.33%	6.72%	5.63%
Atlanta Falcons	1.87%	2.44%	3.60%	5.47%	6.93%	6.76%	7.77%	8.63%	8.50%	8.27%	9.49%	9.20%	7.78%	7.89%	5.40%
Arizona Cardinals	0.60%	1.54%	2.79%	3.52%	3.93%	5.25%	6.34%	6.86%	8.43%	9.65%	10.13%	11.66%	10.46%	8.94%	9.90%
Chicago Bears	0.37%	0.95%	1.48%	2.50%	2.91%	3.41%	4.89%	6.00%	6.12%	8.36%	10.04%	10.36%	15.45%	14.86%	12.30%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.38%	0.80%	2.05%	2.50%	3.55%	4.70%	5.54%	6.32%	8.00%	9.35%	11.08%	13.71%	16.76%	14.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.21%	0.22%	0.56%	0.85%	1.27%	1.91%	2.57%	3.20%	4.95%	6.16%	8.96%	12.31%	19.29%	37.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
Jacksonville Jaguars	33.86%	19.30%	10.98%	8.46%	5.73%	4.33%	3.81%	2.89%	1.97%	1.64%	1.32%	1.10%	1.12%	0.76%	0.73%	0.47%	0.38%	0.28%	0.21%	0.22%	0.10%	0.13%	0.07%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—	—
St. Louis Rams	19.46%	17.75%	11.55%	10.96%	6.55%	6.89%	4.20%	4.43%	2.67%	2.90%	1.93%	2.25%	1.36%	1.34%	0.88%	1.16%	0.53%	0.77%	0.55%	0.42%	0.30%	0.28%	0.18%	0.21%	0.12%	0.10%	0.13%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Minnesota Vikings	5.44%	7.73%	7.10%	6.92%	6.58%	6.25%	5.23%	5.39%	4.43%	5.22%	4.03%	3.98%	3.15%	3.69%	2.85%	3.21%	2.34%	2.57%	2.16%	2.06%	1.60%	1.61%	1.45%	1.44%	1.19%	1.08%	0.54%	0.47%	0.12%	0.15%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	5.17%	6.80%	6.44%	6.94%	6.53%	7.25%	5.44%	5.74%	4.87%	5.71%	4.02%	4.32%	2.94%	3.90%	2.87%	3.26%	2.09%	2.44%	1.95%	2.20%	1.68%	1.62%	1.06%	1.31%	1.03%	0.68%	0.54%	0.62%	0.28%	0.29%	0.01%
Tennessee Titans	5.67%	5.12%	5.68%	5.23%	6.03%	5.28%	5.94%	5.73%	5.28%	4.78%	4.54%	4.57%	4.35%	3.87%	3.63%	3.23%	2.83%	2.91%	2.39%	2.05%	2.13%	1.78%	1.75%	1.37%	0.91%	1.02%	0.84%	0.48%	0.37%	0.18%	0.06%
Indianapolis Colts	2.96%	4.24%	5.14%	5.15%	5.48%	4.63%	4.73%	4.73%	5.10%	4.21%	4.89%	3.86%	4.79%	3.95%	3.42%	3.44%	3.79%	3.49%	3.22%	2.49%	2.75%	2.54%	2.73%	1.88%	2.02%	1.33%	1.22%	0.83%	0.56%	0.37%	0.06%
Washington Redskins	2.35%	3.75%	4.31%	5.29%	4.71%	5.71%	4.79%	4.89%	5.11%	5.54%	4.67%	5.21%	3.50%	4.73%	4.00%	4.10%	2.89%	3.02%	2.72%	3.43%	2.76%	2.46%	1.77%	1.94%	1.56%	1.59%	1.02%	0.97%	0.72%	0.43%	0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	2.64%	3.45%	5.29%	4.55%	5.74%	5.70%	4.92%	4.46%	4.89%	4.16%	4.72%	4.44%	3.95%	3.66%	3.37%	3.47%	4.10%	2.92%	3.29%	2.59%	3.05%	2.33%	2.71%	2.07%	2.04%	1.78%	1.62%	1.01%	0.68%	0.32%	0.08%
Buffalo Bills	2.83%	3.91%	5.15%	4.86%	5.00%	4.48%	5.34%	4.37%	4.81%	4.00%	4.86%	3.96%	4.80%	3.52%	4.01%	2.76%	3.78%	3.21%	3.68%	2.31%	3.05%	2.37%	2.82%	2.17%	2.07%	1.74%	1.92%	0.98%	0.81%	0.38%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	3.05%	3.36%	5.18%	4.89%	5.27%	4.49%	4.78%	4.45%	4.70%	3.66%	4.46%	4.27%	4.56%	3.32%	3.90%	2.98%	4.18%	3.48%	3.54%	2.87%	3.02%	2.63%	2.77%	2.22%	2.34%	1.55%	1.73%	1.00%	0.82%	0.46%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	2.27%	3.76%	4.43%	4.93%	4.50%	5.16%	4.96%	4.82%	4.45%	4.58%	4.33%	4.23%	3.84%	4.36%	4.05%	3.68%	3.42%	3.04%	3.01%	3.32%	2.77%	2.90%	2.37%	2.38%	1.79%	2.10%	1.52%	1.60%	0.94%	0.45%	0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.18%	3.27%	3.57%	4.23%	4.14%	5.05%	4.28%	5.04%	4.26%	4.89%	4.12%	4.69%	3.95%	4.56%	4.07%	4.21%	3.25%	3.43%	3.29%	3.69%	2.98%	2.94%	2.47%	2.58%	2.20%	2.18%	1.57%	1.16%	0.98%	0.69%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.09%	2.66%	3.80%	3.87%	4.17%	4.19%	4.53%	3.90%	4.32%	3.63%	4.24%	4.32%	4.21%	3.35%	4.09%	3.50%	4.31%	3.83%	3.85%	3.01%	3.60%	3.11%	3.19%	2.64%	2.71%	2.31%	2.29%	1.76%	1.49%	0.85%	0.18%
New England Patriots	1.29%	1.86%	3.10%	3.01%	3.49%	3.10%	3.78%	3.53%	4.10%	3.39%	3.69%	3.76%	4.62%	3.90%	4.07%	3.49%	4.48%	4.14%	4.72%	3.33%	4.06%	3.45%	4.06%	3.31%	3.78%	3.02%	2.49%	2.18%	1.56%	1.01%	0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.37%	1.47%	2.04%	1.99%	2.80%	2.75%	3.75%	3.41%	4.12%	3.21%	4.30%	4.04%	4.74%	4.26%	4.45%	4.28%	5.25%	4.71%	4.41%	4.05%	3.94%	3.96%	4.57%	3.58%	3.10%	2.54%	2.40%	1.72%	1.66%	0.64%	0.49%
Detroit Lions	1.21%	2.17%	2.14%	2.88%	2.76%	3.07%	3.49%	3.66%	3.84%	3.84%	3.56%	3.77%	3.76%	4.38%	3.86%	4.86%	4.39%	3.83%	3.71%	4.44%	3.90%	4.10%	3.10%	3.69%	2.93%	3.31%	2.98%	2.68%	1.83%	1.61%	0.25%
Carolina Panthers	1.10%	1.39%	1.83%	2.12%	2.34%	2.79%	2.90%	3.88%	3.34%	4.45%	3.67%	4.81%	3.72%	4.52%	3.88%	5.14%	3.78%	4.95%	3.98%	4.80%	3.90%	4.31%	3.35%	3.72%	3.33%	3.00%	2.94%	2.54%	1.73%	1.42%	0.37%
Denver Broncos	1.05%	1.25%	2.31%	2.28%	2.98%	2.69%	3.21%	2.76%	3.85%	3.35%	4.36%	3.40%	3.93%	3.25%	4.37%	3.81%	4.69%	4.03%	4.13%	3.57%	4.53%	3.77%	4.15%	3.76%	3.89%	3.59%	3.34%	2.90%	2.85%	1.55%	0.40%
Baltimore Ravens	0.90%	1.14%	1.32%	1.57%	2.24%	1.95%	2.71%	3.09%	3.99%	3.56%	3.49%	3.73%	4.69%	4.16%	4.44%	3.88%	4.60%	4.85%	4.95%	4.48%	5.04%	4.38%	4.39%	3.85%	3.80%	2.99%	3.22%	2.11%	2.38%	1.24%	0.86%
New York Jets	1.02%	1.26%	2.30%	2.10%	2.75%	2.33%	3.10%	2.77%	3.08%	2.74%	3.50%	3.11%	4.17%	3.08%	4.27%	3.08%	4.54%	3.84%	4.81%	3.45%	4.58%	3.88%	4.53%	4.07%	5.17%	3.98%	4.39%	3.01%	2.87%	1.71%	0.51%
San Francisco 49ers	0.56%	1.10%	1.30%	1.40%	1.91%	1.94%	2.19%	2.84%	2.69%	3.64%	3.41%	3.55%	3.35%	3.90%	3.73%	4.88%	3.49%	4.69%	3.90%	4.67%	4.18%	4.94%	4.09%	4.65%	4.41%	3.95%	3.75%	4.37%	3.21%	2.83%	0.48%
Oakland Raiders	0.39%	0.69%	1.38%	1.58%	2.15%	2.10%	2.54%	2.51%	3.04%	2.88%	3.39%	3.21%	3.78%	3.50%	4.00%	3.22%	4.60%	3.73%	4.35%	3.94%	4.91%	4.39%	4.78%	4.22%	4.68%	4.29%	4.92%	3.90%	3.89%	2.57%	0.47%
Atlanta Falcons	0.54%	0.89%	0.96%	1.22%	1.54%	1.87%	2.34%	2.85%	2.55%	3.47%	3.14%	2.99%	3.25%	3.99%	3.84%	4.61%	3.62%	4.44%	4.25%	4.19%	4.13%	5.22%	4.35%	5.30%	4.36%	4.47%	3.72%	4.81%	3.27%	3.20%	0.62%
New York Giants	0.31%	0.72%	1.04%	1.44%	1.57%	2.12%	2.42%	2.36%	2.39%	2.94%	2.92%	3.41%	3.06%	4.22%	4.20%	4.43%	3.50%	4.71%	3.86%	5.47%	4.39%	4.74%	4.74%	5.30%	4.20%	4.52%	3.54%	4.15%	3.28%	3.33%	0.72%
Arizona Cardinals	0.13%	0.33%	0.52%	0.73%	1.10%	1.41%	1.33%	1.68%	1.61%	2.13%	2.21%	2.57%	2.65%	3.21%	2.70%	3.60%	3.28%	4.05%	4.08%	5.44%	4.34%	5.07%	4.95%	6.26%	5.34%	6.03%	5.08%	5.72%	4.97%	5.88%	1.60%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.21%	0.53%	0.64%	0.88%	1.16%	1.33%	1.28%	1.81%	1.79%	2.39%	2.10%	2.71%	2.17%	3.12%	3.13%	3.89%	3.25%	3.88%	3.94%	4.78%	4.43%	5.79%	4.92%	6.51%	6.01%	7.27%	6.58%	7.44%	4.38%	1.64%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.22%	0.33%	0.39%	0.59%	0.71%	1.01%	1.13%	1.36%	1.50%	1.65%	1.60%	1.94%	2.50%	2.73%	2.89%	2.96%	3.30%	3.30%	4.31%	4.18%	5.41%	4.99%	5.45%	6.24%	7.66%	7.07%	8.55%	6.93%	7.06%	1.99%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.17%	0.20%	0.21%	0.29%	0.40%	0.68%	0.91%	0.91%	1.41%	1.32%	1.59%	1.67%	2.40%	2.24%	2.97%	2.39%	3.06%	3.22%	4.54%	3.90%	4.88%	4.51%	6.39%	5.99%	7.70%	7.04%	9.73%	7.98%	8.69%	2.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	—	0.04%	0.06%	0.07%	0.11%	0.14%	0.23%	0.24%	0.36%	0.47%	0.53%	0.65%	0.68%	1.16%	1.00%	1.48%	1.62%	2.36%	1.99%	2.99%	3.09%	4.31%	4.04%	6.43%	6.86%	10.23%	10.08%	14.88%	12.50%	11.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0.03%	0.04%	0.10%	0.11%	0.09%	0.13%	0.27%	0.22%	0.40%	0.38%	0.62%	0.79%	0.85%	1.04%	1.23%	1.13%	1.35%	2.04%	2.62%	2.28%	3.02%	3.42%	4.58%	4.79%	7.00%	7.77%	10.76%	12.90%	21.51%	8.53%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.06%	0.19%	0.11%	0.18%	0.26%	0.58%	0.64%	1.04%	1.61%	2.88%	3.25%	8.55%	14.29%	66.19%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars	51.33%	16.36%	5.03%	12.80%	6.07%	2.92%	5.49%
Tennessee Titans	9.91%	5.24%	2.14%	20.16%	13.77%	9.87%	38.91%
Indianapolis Colts	5.99%	11.34%	8.21%	8.15%	9.02%	9.25%	48.04%
Buffalo Bills	5.63%	11.51%	7.67%	7.96%	9.00%	8.72%	49.51%
Miami Dolphins	5.35%	11.56%	7.87%	7.96%	8.46%	8.29%	50.51%
Seattle Seahawks	5.13%	10.89%	19.77%	4.31%	6.19%	7.80%	45.91%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.98%	8.17%	14.81%	4.23%	6.15%	6.88%	55.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.85%	1.96%	1.10%	9.09%	8.47%	8.18%	68.35%
New England Patriots	2.61%	6.74%	4.76%	6.22%	7.56%	7.19%	64.92%
New York Jets	2.11%	4.88%	3.77%	4.93%	5.69%	6.42%	72.20%
Denver Broncos	2.05%	5.03%	11.26%	2.64%	4.95%	6.52%	67.55%
Baltimore Ravens	1.83%	1.40%	0.68%	7.41%	7.12%	8.01%	73.55%
Oakland Raiders	0.99%	3.47%	8.75%	2.41%	4.15%	5.53%	74.70%
San Diego Chargers	0.20%	1.40%	4.10%	1.41%	2.80%	3.52%	86.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%	0.05%	0.07%	0.32%	0.58%	0.90%	98.04%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	0.01%	—	0.02%	—	99.97%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
St. Louis Rams	39.79%	22.64%	12.87%	7.80%	5.35%	3.70%	7.85%
Minnesota Vikings	14.02%	14.98%	9.98%	13.20%	9.72%	8.32%	29.78%
Dallas Cowboys	12.39%	15.15%	21.55%	7.40%	8.06%	8.02%	27.43%
Green Bay Packers	7.21%	9.11%	7.25%	12.02%	9.64%	8.84%	45.93%
Washington Redskins	6.67%	10.63%	15.06%	8.00%	9.78%	9.76%	40.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.21%	7.70%	6.95%	11.50%	9.68%	9.56%	48.40%
Detroit Lions	4.00%	5.17%	4.49%	8.42%	8.19%	7.74%	61.99%
Carolina Panthers	2.98%	3.51%	2.91%	9.00%	9.18%	9.30%	63.12%
San Francisco 49ers	2.10%	2.54%	2.38%	6.28%	7.72%	7.73%	71.25%
Atlanta Falcons	1.87%	2.29%	2.65%	6.01%	7.27%	6.92%	72.99%
New York Giants	1.42%	2.92%	6.59%	3.75%	5.39%	6.73%	73.20%
Arizona Cardinals	0.60%	1.76%	4.36%	2.39%	3.65%	5.01%	82.23%
Chicago Bears	0.37%	0.96%	1.60%	1.98%	3.05%	3.59%	88.45%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.38%	0.77%	1.87%	2.62%	3.57%	90.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.26%	0.59%	0.38%	0.70%	1.21%	96.81%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
St. Louis Rams	84.41%	84.41%	59.82%	39.05%	21.58%
Jacksonville Jaguars	86.08%	86.08%	57.15%	36.85%	21.08%
Minnesota Vikings	57.07%	57.07%	34.93%	18.39%	9.40%
Tennessee Titans	45.94%	42.42%	21.98%	11.93%	6.32%
Buffalo Bills	37.76%	37.76%	21.55%	11.10%	6.27%
Indianapolis Colts	36.64%	36.64%	20.03%	9.82%	5.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37.69%	37.19%	20.01%	9.98%	4.95%
Dallas Cowboys	52.92%	52.92%	23.76%	9.24%	4.08%
Washington Redskins	42.60%	41.53%	19.04%	8.43%	3.48%
Green Bay Packers	37.75%	36.35%	15.50%	6.16%	2.66%
Seattle Seahawks	38.07%	34.57%	14.78%	5.89%	2.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	32.07%	28.48%	12.45%	4.86%	2.25%
New York Jets	20.81%	17.62%	8.27%	3.55%	1.69%
Miami Dolphins	32.58%	30.34%	12.20%	4.08%	1.60%
Denver Broncos	25.37%	19.54%	7.88%	3.25%	1.21%
Oakland Raiders	20.84%	15.44%	6.51%	2.68%	1.16%
New England Patriots	25.73%	19.98%	7.87%	2.72%	1.00%
Detroit Lions	28.84%	21.66%	7.40%	2.77%	0.81%
Carolina Panthers	30.39%	18.42%	6.52%	2.47%	0.78%
Baltimore Ravens	23.22%	12.24%	3.93%	1.58%	0.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.84%	12.69%	3.70%	1.12%	0.33%
New York Giants	22.46%	12.76%	3.68%	1.13%	0.27%
Atlanta Falcons	22.85%	11.45%	3.64%	0.99%	0.24%
San Diego Chargers	11.83%	5.81%	1.65%	0.55%	0.20%
San Francisco 49ers	24.11%	9.92%	1.91%	0.47%	0.09%
Arizona Cardinals	15.41%	7.32%	1.65%	0.33%	0.09%
Chicago Bears	10.22%	5.17%	1.46%	0.38%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.88%	1.18%	0.27%	0.09%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints	8.83%	2.65%	0.41%	0.12%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.87%	0.38%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.69%	0.02%		0.60%	0.91%	0.46%	0.70%	0.99%	0.76%	0.48%	0.60%	0.66%	0.40%	1.16%	0.58%
Buffalo Bills	1.67%		0.25%	0.01%	1.32%	1.91%	1.31%	1.63%	1.71%	1.32%	1.00%	1.11%	1.99%	0.84%	1.74%	2.81%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.01%			0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns							0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.94%	0.73%	0.14%			0.81%	0.49%	0.88%	1.57%	1.10%	0.65%	0.65%	1.29%	0.46%	1.66%	1.09%
Indianapolis Colts	1.53%	1.35%	0.13%		1.27%		1.18%	1.67%	1.55%	1.25%	0.92%	1.17%	2.03%	0.66%	1.91%	2.69%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.31%	1.81%	0.15%		1.19%	1.86%		1.39%	2.01%	1.68%	1.24%	0.77%	1.50%	0.60%	1.44%	1.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.39%	0.94%	0.14%	0.01%	1.28%	1.28%	0.53%		1.75%	1.09%	0.84%	0.92%	1.68%	0.76%	2.06%	1.66%
Miami Dolphins	1.22%	0.77%	0.13%		0.85%	1.02%	0.73%	1.13%		1.06%	0.44%	0.57%	1.71%	0.48%	1.56%	1.76%
New England Patriots	0.65%	0.60%	0.12%		0.63%	0.91%	0.63%	0.91%	0.75%		0.45%	0.60%	1.49%	0.40%	1.12%	1.37%
New York Jets	0.84%	0.75%	0.08%		0.76%	0.57%	0.58%	1.01%	0.64%	0.67%		0.56%	1.17%	0.53%	1.18%	1.29%
Oakland Raiders	0.90%	0.53%	0.13%		0.76%	0.86%	0.31%	0.99%	1.16%	0.89%	0.53%		1.01%	0.31%	1.51%	1.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.35%	0.57%	0.02%		0.72%	0.80%	0.29%	0.80%	1.05%	0.70%	0.34%	0.40%		0.35%	0.96%	0.53%
San Diego Chargers	0.28%	0.19%	0.09%		0.31%	0.39%	0.18%	0.30%	0.32%	0.39%	0.18%	0.22%	0.50%		0.39%	0.47%
Seattle Seahawks	1.68%	1.13%	0.12%		1.70%	1.23%	0.71%	1.88%	1.97%	1.33%	1.07%	1.08%	2.05%	0.71%		1.89%
Tennessee Titans	1.42%	2.66%	0.06%		1.50%	2.76%	1.00%	2.44%	3.65%	2.83%	2.03%	1.18%	1.85%	1.10%	2.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.51%	0.45%	0.24%	0.52%	0.40%	0.35%	0.29%	0.26%	0.31%	0.03%	0.48%	0.17%	0.45%	0.50%
Atlanta Falcons	0.37%		0.41%	0.38%	0.68%	0.95%	0.89%	0.64%	0.08%	0.54%	0.09%	0.53%	0.45%	0.61%	0.67%
Carolina Panthers	0.60%	0.56%		0.44%	1.49%	1.11%	1.32%	1.09%	0.23%	1.02%	0.10%	0.85%	0.53%	1.36%	1.23%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	0.34%	0.28%		0.39%	0.29%	0.27%	0.21%	0.23%	0.32%	0.02%	0.39%	0.25%	0.22%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	1.56%	1.75%	2.34%	1.00%		2.35%	2.51%	1.68%	0.97%	2.31%	0.30%	2.51%	0.69%	2.10%	3.31%
Detroit Lions	0.78%	1.30%	1.25%	0.39%	1.41%		1.12%	0.74%	0.48%	0.80%	0.14%	1.47%	0.50%	0.83%	1.28%
Green Bay Packers	1.04%	2.04%	2.33%	0.49%	2.25%	1.36%		1.34%	0.75%	1.56%	0.17%	2.44%	0.94%	1.32%	2.00%
Minnesota Vikings	1.35%	2.60%	3.32%	0.79%	2.71%	2.26%	2.73%		0.92%	1.92%	0.32%	2.83%	1.50%	2.33%	2.49%
New Orleans Saints	0.16%	0.07%	0.06%	0.06%	0.21%	0.26%	0.16%	0.16%		0.21%	0.03%	0.12%	0.08%	0.14%	0.23%
New York Giants	0.43%	0.74%	0.66%	0.29%	1.07%	0.83%	0.74%	0.49%	0.28%		0.12%	0.88%	0.29%	0.61%	0.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%	0.09%	0.09%	0.08%	0.06%		0.07%	0.02%	0.08%	0.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.37%	0.21%	0.43%	0.14%	0.66%	0.64%	0.52%	0.43%	0.11%	0.49%	0.07%		0.20%	0.40%	0.61%
St. Louis Rams	1.00%	1.56%	2.05%	0.72%	1.95%	2.13%	2.36%	1.94%	0.72%	1.41%	0.13%	1.92%		1.95%	2.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.23%	2.04%	2.66%	0.55%	2.67%	1.52%	2.09%	2.08%	0.88%	1.54%	0.26%	2.07%	1.18%		2.51%
Washington Redskins	1.23%	1.79%	2.18%	0.86%	3.55%	2.19%	2.57%	1.97%	0.89%	1.55%	0.23%	2.27%	0.94%	2.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.37%		0.19%	0.27%	1.06%	0.26%	0.40%	0.21%	0.16%	0.14%	0.08%	0.08%	0.33%	0.38%
Buffalo Bills	0.67%		0.04%	1.78%	1.59%	3.89%	2.53%	1.60%	1.05%	0.75%	1.25%	0.63%	0.68%	3.23%	1.86%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.02%	0.01%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns		0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.24%	0.77%	0.01%		1.06%	1.62%	0.40%	1.08%	0.61%	0.46%	0.12%	0.36%	0.07%	0.45%	0.63%
Indianapolis Colts	0.64%	1.61%	0.02%	1.77%		3.36%	2.01%	1.44%	1.09%	0.77%	1.19%	0.71%	0.50%	3.18%	1.74%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.75%	5.32%	0.10%	3.35%	5.49%		4.66%	4.62%	3.44%	3.14%	2.93%	3.84%	1.16%	4.97%	10.38%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.39%	1.60%	0.07%	0.40%	1.37%	1.96%		1.93%	1.01%	0.88%	0.30%	0.35%	0.15%	1.07%	0.97%
Miami Dolphins	0.53%	0.91%	0.03%	1.00%	0.99%	1.78%	1.41%		0.62%	0.50%	0.70%	0.52%	0.36%	1.75%	1.10%
New England Patriots	0.26%	0.56%	0.02%	0.55%	0.54%	1.27%	0.85%	0.74%		0.25%	0.54%	0.39%	0.25%	1.03%	0.62%
New York Jets	0.27%	0.49%	0.01%	0.61%	0.50%	1.52%	0.95%	0.54%	0.43%		0.50%	0.49%	0.24%	1.04%	0.68%
Oakland Raiders	0.22%	0.78%		0.19%	0.75%	1.12%	0.34%	1.10%	0.62%	0.28%		0.21%	0.04%	0.37%	0.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.10%	0.23%	0.01%	0.13%	0.28%	1.03%	0.25%	0.38%	0.24%	0.19%	0.06%		0.12%	0.33%	0.35%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.18%		0.06%	0.16%	0.30%	0.06%	0.27%	0.17%	0.13%	0.01%	0.06%		0.08%	0.12%
Seattle Seahawks	0.56%	1.77%		0.62%	2.10%	2.07%	0.77%	2.35%	1.45%	0.97%	0.50%	0.32%	0.18%		1.12%
Tennessee Titans	0.63%	1.61%	0.03%	1.01%	1.49%	7.94%	1.54%	1.69%	1.17%	0.86%	0.69%	1.03%	0.33%	1.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.09%	0.05%	0.05%	0.21%	0.14%	0.14%	0.22%	0.05%	0.06%		0.10%	0.30%	0.13%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%		0.15%	0.15%	0.60%	0.25%	0.38%	0.34%	0.02%	0.23%	0.02%	0.10%	0.69%	0.29%	0.33%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.15%		0.10%	1.15%	0.41%	0.63%	0.87%	0.04%	0.23%	0.02%	0.17%	1.56%	0.40%	0.65%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%		0.26%	0.06%	0.07%	0.13%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.09%	0.24%	0.10%	0.22%
Dallas Cowboys	0.47%	0.95%	1.50%	0.54%		2.33%	3.20%	3.32%	0.28%	1.08%	0.05%	1.01%	3.96%	2.45%	2.62%
Detroit Lions	0.26%	0.25%	0.39%	0.14%	1.26%		0.56%	0.91%	0.09%	0.38%	0.05%	0.32%	1.36%	0.53%	0.90%
Green Bay Packers	0.48%	0.48%	0.85%	0.20%	2.46%	1.14%		2.43%	0.16%	0.84%	0.09%	0.65%	2.46%	1.24%	2.02%
Minnesota Vikings	1.05%	1.15%	2.22%	0.54%	6.72%	2.40%	4.15%		0.32%	1.82%	0.17%	1.08%	5.41%	3.31%	4.59%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%		0.02%		0.06%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%		0.03%	0.11%	0.01%	0.08%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.16%	0.20%	0.09%	0.56%	0.26%	0.52%	0.39%	0.04%			0.20%	0.70%	0.27%	0.23%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.03%	0.01%		0.08%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%				0.01%	0.03%	0.04%
San Francisco 49ers	0.10%	0.06%	0.07%	0.04%	0.35%	0.21%	0.19%	0.18%		0.10%			0.38%	0.11%	0.12%
St. Louis Rams	2.05%	3.09%	4.56%	1.28%	9.16%	4.26%	6.54%	7.64%	0.90%	3.02%	0.39%	2.76%		6.33%	7.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.59%	0.66%	0.86%	0.18%	3.51%	1.26%	2.06%	2.81%	0.13%	0.73%	0.08%	0.75%	3.61%		2.78%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.68%	0.93%	0.40%	2.78%	1.49%	2.37%	2.85%	0.20%	0.52%	0.03%	0.74%	3.78%	1.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.09%	0.01%		0.11%	0.18%	0.35%	0.12%	0.14%	0.07%	0.08%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.22%	0.12%
Buffalo Bills	0.39%				0.38%	0.79%	4.22%	0.76%	0.55%	0.43%	0.44%	0.33%	0.32%	0.11%	0.82%	1.56%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%									0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.31%				0.38%	1.11%	0.14%	0.22%	0.13%	0.16%	0.09%	0.05%	0.01%	0.14%	0.44%
Indianapolis Colts	0.30%	0.78%			0.40%		3.54%	0.57%	0.65%	0.30%	0.30%	0.39%	0.35%	0.05%	0.67%	1.52%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.55%	5.22%			2.22%	5.14%		3.92%	4.19%	2.58%	2.27%	1.90%	0.69%	0.58%	4.61%	2.98%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.18%	0.48%	0.01%		0.14%	0.46%	1.67%		0.32%	0.18%	0.21%	0.07%	0.22%	0.05%	0.20%	0.67%
Miami Dolphins	0.13%	0.36%			0.17%	0.32%	1.47%	0.23%		0.14%	0.11%	0.15%	0.13%	0.03%	0.25%	0.59%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.06%			0.10%	0.16%	0.95%	0.19%	0.16%		0.05%	0.08%	0.11%	0.06%	0.27%	0.49%
New York Jets	0.10%	0.29%			0.14%	0.30%	1.32%	0.19%	0.18%	0.11%		0.09%	0.11%	0.04%	0.30%	0.38%
Oakland Raiders	0.05%	0.25%			0.08%	0.26%	0.95%	0.11%	0.19%	0.11%	0.07%		0.15%	0.01%	0.13%	0.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%	0.11%			0.04%	0.14%	0.24%	0.07%	0.08%	0.10%	0.05%	0.05%		0.02%	0.13%	0.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.05%			0.03%	0.04%	0.13%	0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%		0.01%	0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.76%		0.01%	0.11%	0.53%	2.05%	0.18%	0.40%	0.24%	0.22%	0.13%	0.18%	0.01%		0.87%
Tennessee Titans	0.25%	1.68%			0.71%	1.51%	2.30%	1.10%	0.99%	0.70%	0.74%	0.48%	0.21%	0.12%	1.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.01%	0.04%		0.04%		0.03%	0.06%				0.02%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%		0.06%	0.02%	0.09%	0.04%	0.15%	0.15%		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.18%	0.08%	0.13%
Carolina Panthers	0.09%	0.05%		0.04%	0.37%	0.18%	0.22%	0.46%		0.04%		0.03%	0.49%	0.35%	0.15%
Chicago Bears		0.01%	0.03%		0.06%	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%				0.03%	0.11%	0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.16%	0.42%	0.12%		0.49%	1.02%	1.73%	0.03%	0.10%		0.26%	3.10%	1.05%	0.71%
Detroit Lions		0.10%	0.15%	0.01%	0.45%		0.19%	0.32%	0.02%	0.07%		0.05%	0.91%	0.20%	0.30%
Green Bay Packers	0.12%	0.26%	0.24%	0.06%	0.96%	0.21%		0.65%	0.03%	0.21%	0.01%	0.07%	2.28%	0.38%	0.68%
Minnesota Vikings	0.29%	0.72%	0.95%	0.21%	2.87%	0.72%	1.24%		0.10%	0.60%	0.04%	0.24%	6.95%	1.37%	2.09%
New Orleans Saints				0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%			0.01%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.02%	0.06%	0.02%	0.07%	0.06%	0.09%	0.19%				0.03%	0.31%	0.16%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles					0.01%		0.02%	0.02%					0.03%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers					0.09%		0.07%	0.05%		0.02%			0.12%	0.07%	0.05%
St. Louis Rams	0.46%	0.72%	1.28%	0.49%	7.30%	2.16%	4.77%	9.79%	0.04%	1.08%	0.11%	0.37%		5.30%	5.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.31%	0.49%	0.03%	1.33%	0.31%	0.67%	1.51%	0.04%	0.27%	0.01%	0.16%	3.48%		1.20%
Washington Redskins	0.07%	0.29%	0.33%	0.07%	0.86%	0.42%	0.81%	1.56%	0.03%	0.11%		0.16%	2.73%	0.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%									0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%						0.01%					0.01%			0.02%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.03%					0.01%			0.02%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%									0.01%		0.03%			0.03%
Baltimore Ravens					0.04%	0.02%		0.09%		0.02%						0.13%			0.02%								0.22%	0.04%		0.09%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.05%			0.20%	0.04%		0.66%		0.20%	0.51%					1.04%			0.06%						0.03%		2.50%	0.43%		0.52%
Carolina Panthers			0.02%	0.04%					0.05%			0.04%	0.28%	0.06%	0.06%		0.04%			0.05%	0.04%					0.06%			0.04%
Chicago Bears			0.01%	0.03%									0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals																											0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.14%	0.42%					0.17%			0.34%	1.20%	0.24%	0.20%		0.15%			0.11%	0.13%		0.10%	0.03%		0.33%			0.52%
Denver Broncos		0.02%			0.06%			0.20%		0.07%	0.06%					0.17%			0.02%						0.01%		0.35%	0.09%		0.16%
Detroit Lions				0.11%					0.01%			0.13%	0.20%	0.07%	0.06%		0.03%			0.03%	0.03%		0.03%	0.01%		0.04%			0.06%
Green Bay Packers			0.09%	0.24%					0.10%			0.30%	0.84%	0.16%	0.09%		0.11%			0.03%	0.12%		0.04%	0.02%		0.17%			0.35%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.11%			0.21%	0.02%		0.54%		0.20%	0.32%					0.78%		0.01%	0.07%			0.01%			0.02%		1.76%	0.55%		0.45%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.14%	0.37%			0.59%	0.14%		2.01%		0.65%	1.39%					3.98%		0.06%	0.40%			0.03%			0.13%		6.97%	2.13%		2.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	0.04%			0.10%			0.17%		0.09%	0.17%					0.40%		0.01%	0.07%			0.01%			0.02%		0.80%	0.18%		0.16%
Miami Dolphins		0.04%			0.06%	0.01%		0.21%		0.02%	0.14%					0.32%			0.04%								0.48%	0.19%		0.09%
Minnesota Vikings			0.13%	1.13%					0.36%			0.89%	2.82%	0.53%	0.61%		0.35%			0.47%	0.23%		0.14%	0.05%		0.58%			1.11%
New England Patriots		0.01%			0.03%	0.01%		0.13%		0.05%	0.09%					0.16%			0.01%								0.29%	0.11%		0.11%
New Orleans Saints													0.02%
New York Giants				0.02%								0.02%	0.11%		0.01%					0.03%	0.01%					0.04%			0.03%
New York Jets		0.02%			0.11%			0.11%		0.06%	0.11%					0.31%									0.04%		0.53%	0.21%		0.19%
Oakland Raiders		0.03%			0.01%			0.10%		0.05%	0.08%					0.23%			0.01%						0.01%		0.38%	0.13%		0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.01%									0.02%													0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers					0.02%	0.01%		0.03%		0.01%	0.03%					0.06%			0.01%								0.12%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers					0.01%			0.03%			0.02%					0.02%		0.01%							0.01%		0.03%	0.06%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers				0.01%					0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%											0.01%			0.01%
Seattle Seahawks		0.02%			0.03%			0.42%		0.16%	0.16%					0.34%			0.04%						0.03%		0.78%	0.26%		0.32%
St. Louis Rams			0.33%	2.04%			0.01%		0.97%			2.13%	7.13%	1.10%	1.08%		0.75%			0.86%	0.73%		0.39%	0.17%		1.51%			2.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.10%	0.44%					0.14%			0.49%	1.73%	0.21%	0.22%		0.14%			0.16%	0.18%		0.08%	0.02%		0.34%			0.70%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.04%			0.22%	0.05%		0.46%		0.38%	0.42%					1.05%		0.01%	0.11%						0.08%		2.25%	0.61%		0.63%
Washington Redskins			0.07%	0.31%					0.22%			0.36%	1.32%	0.17%	0.11%		0.15%			0.12%	0.04%		0.01%	0.04%		0.20%			0.36%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
St. Louis Rams	100.00%	69.11%	46.44%	23.47%	Won Super Bowl
Jacksonville Jaguars	100.00%	64.94%	43.38%	22.98%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	62.48%	25.43%	12.49%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.00%	63.07%	26.29%	11.94%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	72.96%	29.08%	13.59%	7.15%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	43.75%	19.63%	10.26%	6.04%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tennessee Titans	56.25%	22.82%	10.98%	5.97%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	70.64%	24.41%	8.77%	3.78%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	65.10%	21.35%	7.46%	3.16%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys	27.04%	8.24%	3.20%	1.48%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	34.90%	8.78%	2.49%	0.96%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	29.36%	6.09%	1.71%	0.58%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills				43.75%
Miami Dolphins			34.90%
Seattle Seahawks		65.10%
Tennessee Titans	56.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			27.04%
Detroit Lions				29.36%
Minnesota Vikings	72.96%
Washington Redskins		70.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		7.16%	12.47%
Indianapolis Colts	7.55%				43.75%	11.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars	16.57%			26.12%		22.25%
Miami Dolphins			8.78%
Seattle Seahawks		21.35%
Tennessee Titans		9.01%	13.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys				5.38%	2.86%
Detroit Lions				6.09%
Minnesota Vikings				19.42%	9.66%
St. Louis Rams	13.73%	23.27%	32.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.07%		11.77%			46.23%
Washington Redskins					24.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		3.99%	2.32%	1.51%	2.44%
Indianapolis Colts	4.29%		13.11%	3.13%		4.90%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.99%	27.14%			9.03%	4.22%
Miami Dolphins	0.34%	1.52%				0.63%
Seattle Seahawks	1.75%		3.62%			2.09%
Tennessee Titans		4.40%	2.51%	1.65%	2.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		0.35%		0.71%	1.30%	0.84%
Detroit Lions	0.16%		0.51%		1.04%
Minnesota Vikings		1.64%		2.66%	5.93%	3.36%
St. Louis Rams	1.64%		4.85%		28.51%	11.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.13%	2.39%	6.93%	14.84%
Washington Redskins	1.11%		3.20%	4.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Buffalo Bills		0.22%	0.11%				0.73%		2.51%	1.79%		0.68%
Dallas Cowboys	0.14%			0.40%	0.59%	0.04%		0.15%			0.16%
Detroit Lions	0.02%			0.20%	0.22%	0.03%		0.06%			0.05%
Indianapolis Colts		0.43%	0.23%				1.39%		5.75%	3.55%		1.14%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.83%	0.59%				2.94%		10.33%	6.10%		2.19%
Miami Dolphins		0.05%	0.02%				0.17%		0.38%	0.28%		0.06%
Minnesota Vikings	0.67%			1.89%	3.10%	0.21%		0.63%			0.65%
Seattle Seahawks		0.06%	0.06%				0.39%		1.38%	0.97%		0.30%
St. Louis Rams	2.26%			6.14%	9.95%	0.72%		1.94%			2.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.87%			3.32%	4.91%	0.41%		1.14%			1.29%
Tennessee Titans		0.13%	0.12%				0.82%		2.62%	1.66%		0.62%
Washington Redskins	0.26%			0.99%	1.63%	0.12%		0.38%			0.40%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

St. Louis Rams 23.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

46.46%

Win Prob

62.31%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

61.39%

Win Prob

65.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

42.39%

Win Prob

49.06%

Jacksonville Jaguars 22.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

40.22%

Win Prob

74.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

62.56%

Win Prob

67.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

44.95%

Win Prob

50.94%

Indianapolis Colts 12.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

70.02%

Win Prob

67.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

51.55%

Win Prob

32.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

46.04%

Win Prob

48.36%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.94% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

73.30%

Win Prob

65.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

56.45%

Win Prob

34.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

41.12%

Win Prob

44.60%

Minnesota Vikings 7.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

66.78%

Win Prob

37.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

43.64%

Win Prob

46.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

43.36%

Win Prob

51.32%

Buffalo Bills 6.04% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.75%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

63.53%

Win Prob

42.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

38.89%

Win Prob

48.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

41.56%

Win Prob

52.62%

Tennessee Titans 5.97% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.25%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

60.52%

Win Prob

38.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

40.07%

Win Prob

47.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

43.89%

Win Prob

51.57%

Washington Redskins 3.78% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.64%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

50.86%

Win Prob

28.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

43.12%

Win Prob

42.67%

Seattle Seahawks 3.16% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.80%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

48.53%

Win Prob

28.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

43.67%

Win Prob

41.57%

Dallas Cowboys 1.48% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

65.29%

Win Prob

28.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

40.62%

Win Prob

37.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

39.86%

Win Prob

41.55%

Miami Dolphins 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

61.04%

Win Prob

32.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

39.58%

Win Prob

34.55%

Detroit Lions 0.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.36%

→

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

60.82%

Win Prob

30.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

37.93%

Win Prob

27.16%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1999-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 25-24	1496.21	1427.86	49.92%	49.85%	+7.74	1-0
1999-09-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-19	1503.95	1576.54	30.70%	69.08%	-8.26	1-1
1999-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-24	1495.69	1532.92	54.32%	45.46%	-31.55	1-2
1999-10-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-35	1464.14	1565.90	27.24%	72.53%	-22.41	1-3
1999-10-10	New York Giants	W 14-3	1441.73	1471.37	55.40%	44.38%	+22.86	2-3
1999-10-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-24	1464.59	1556.64	46.45%	53.33%	-26.98	2-4
1999-10-31	New England Patriots	L 3-27	1437.61	1542.35	44.64%	55.14%	-33.96	2-5
1999-11-07	@ New York Jets	L 7-12	1403.65	1483.88	29.77%	70.01%	-10.34	2-6
1999-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 23-19	1393.31	1570.96	34.64%	65.14%	+20.22	3-6
1999-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-9	1413.53	1563.19	38.37%	61.41%	+19.06	4-6
1999-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 34-24	1432.59	1470.90	35.05%	64.73%	+31.76	5-6
1999-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1464.35	1355.67	73.32%	26.46%	+8.23	6-6
1999-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-28	1472.58	1507.58	35.48%	64.30%	-27.56	6-7
1999-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 21-31	1445.02	1584.91	39.71%	60.07%	-19.50	6-8
1999-12-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-37	1425.52	1379.75	46.68%	53.10%	-34.76	6-9
2000-01-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-49	1390.76	1523.42	23.86%	75.91%	-18.55	6-10
1999-09-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1562.59	1580.32	57.08%	42.69%	-15.35	0-1
1999-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1547.24	1539.45	41.30%	58.48%	-26.44	0-2
1999-09-26	@ St. Louis Rams	L 7-35	1520.80	1495.58	43.75%	56.03%	-35.95	0-3
1999-10-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-19	1484.85	1447.50	64.60%	35.17%	-24.56	0-4
1999-10-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1460.29	1469.80	38.91%	60.87%	+16.36	1-4
1999-10-17	St. Louis Rams	L 13-41	1476.65	1591.57	43.19%	56.58%	-35.49	1-5
1999-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1441.16	1485.75	34.23%	65.55%	-10.64	1-6
1999-10-31	Carolina Panthers	W 27-20	1430.52	1452.57	56.47%	43.30%	+17.79	2-6
1999-11-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-30	1448.31	1649.47	31.64%	68.14%	-23.57	2-7
1999-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-19	1424.74	1543.51	25.35%	74.43%	-11.82	2-8
1999-11-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 28-34	1412.92	1460.31	33.87%	65.91%	-12.89	2-9
1999-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 35-12	1400.03	1372.49	63.31%	36.47%	+27.17	3-9
1999-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-26	1427.20	1343.46	52.14%	47.64%	-35.28	3-10
1999-12-19	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-30	1391.92	1545.69	21.73%	78.05%	-12.17	3-11
1999-12-26	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-14	1379.75	1425.52	53.10%	46.68%	+34.76	4-11
2000-01-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-29	1414.51	1346.85	68.47%	31.30%	+10.87	5-11
1999-09-12	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-27	1480.37	1468.79	41.83%	57.95%	-26.78	0-1
1999-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1453.59	1526.94	49.13%	50.64%	-13.21	0-2
1999-09-26	Cleveland Browns	W 17-10	1440.38	1237.65	82.46%	17.31%	+7.12	1-2
1999-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-13	1447.50	1484.85	35.17%	64.60%	+24.56	2-2
1999-10-10	@ Tennessee Titans	L 11-14	1472.06	1531.63	32.31%	67.46%	-8.70	2-3
1999-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 8-35	1463.36	1534.06	49.51%	50.26%	-39.94	2-4
1999-10-31	Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1423.42	1524.30	45.18%	54.59%	-12.15	2-5
1999-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 41-9	1411.27	1233.34	65.18%	34.60%	+30.40	3-5
1999-11-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-6	1441.67	1673.05	15.08%	84.70%	-4.06	3-6
1999-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-31	1437.61	1269.65	63.87%	35.91%	+9.66	4-6
1999-11-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-30	1447.27	1684.70	27.31%	72.47%	-11.22	4-7
1999-12-05	Tennessee Titans	W 41-14	1436.05	1578.53	39.35%	60.43%	+48.73	5-7
1999-12-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-24	1484.78	1466.56	42.76%	57.02%	+23.41	6-7
1999-12-19	New Orleans Saints	W 31-8	1508.19	1333.87	79.99%	19.78%	+14.75	7-7
1999-12-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-0	1522.94	1339.32	80.83%	18.95%	+13.81	8-7
2000-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 3-20	1536.75	1474.54	49.04%	50.73%	-31.39	8-8
1999-09-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-31	1525.04	1455.39	50.11%	49.66%	-32.07	0-1
1999-09-19	New York Jets	W 17-3	1492.97	1556.88	50.49%	49.29%	+28.63	1-1
1999-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-0	1521.60	1392.20	75.57%	24.21%	+19.18	2-1
1999-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-18	1540.78	1584.81	34.30%	65.48%	+22.72	3-1
1999-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1563.50	1468.58	71.74%	28.03%	+7.55	4-1
1999-10-17	Oakland Raiders	L 14-20	1571.05	1489.61	70.15%	29.62%	-26.67	4-2
1999-10-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-26	1544.38	1539.61	40.88%	58.90%	-20.08	4-3
1999-10-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 13-10	1524.30	1423.42	54.59%	45.18%	+12.16	5-3
1999-11-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-17	1536.46	1576.11	34.87%	64.91%	+41.53	6-3
1999-11-14	Miami Dolphins	W 23-3	1577.99	1632.35	51.86%	47.91%	+33.27	7-3
1999-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 7-17	1611.26	1523.06	52.78%	47.00%	-25.91	7-4
1999-11-28	New England Patriots	W 17-7	1585.35	1531.10	66.79%	32.99%	+16.21	8-4
1999-12-12	New York Giants	L 17-19	1601.56	1469.36	75.86%	23.91%	-16.65	8-5
1999-12-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-21	1584.91	1445.02	60.07%	39.71%	+19.50	9-5
1999-12-26	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1604.41	1486.02	57.07%	42.70%	+11.48	10-5
2000-01-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-6	1615.89	1659.08	53.47%	46.31%	+35.96	11-5
1999-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-19	1484.13	1479.97	40.79%	58.98%	-19.01	0-1
1999-09-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-22	1465.12	1579.39	43.29%	56.49%	-9.51	0-2
1999-09-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1455.61	1388.09	68.46%	31.32%	+23.85	1-2
1999-10-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 36-38	1479.46	1549.84	30.97%	68.81%	-6.81	1-3
1999-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-29	1472.65	1542.10	31.08%	68.69%	+15.08	2-3
1999-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 9-24	1487.73	1495.49	58.48%	41.29%	-35.16	2-4
1999-10-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-27	1452.57	1430.52	43.30%	56.47%	-17.79	2-5
1999-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-7	1434.78	1386.83	65.98%	33.79%	+26.77	3-5
1999-11-14	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-35	1461.55	1602.96	22.96%	76.82%	-17.84	3-6
1999-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-17	1443.71	1217.05	71.22%	28.55%	+16.60	4-6
1999-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-28	1460.31	1412.92	65.91%	33.87%	+12.89	5-6
1999-12-05	St. Louis Rams	L 21-34	1473.20	1652.03	34.48%	65.29%	-19.32	5-7
1999-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 33-31	1453.88	1576.55	24.93%	74.85%	+16.43	6-7
1999-12-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-24	1470.31	1378.74	71.35%	28.42%	+18.21	7-7
1999-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-30	1488.52	1428.69	48.70%	51.08%	-23.91	7-8
2000-01-02	New Orleans Saints	W 45-13	1464.61	1348.90	74.10%	25.68%	+22.58	8-8
1999-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1467.56	1507.40	53.95%	45.83%	+12.33	1-0
1999-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 13-14	1479.89	1493.32	57.69%	42.09%	-8.96	1-1
1999-09-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1470.93	1497.00	36.67%	63.11%	-15.07	1-2
1999-10-03	New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1455.86	1483.49	55.68%	44.09%	+13.70	2-2
1999-10-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-22	1469.56	1573.16	27.03%	72.74%	+15.96	3-2
1999-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1485.52	1387.57	72.10%	27.68%	-22.38	3-3
1999-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-6	1463.14	1514.02	33.42%	66.36%	-8.99	3-4
1999-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 22-48	1454.15	1554.38	27.42%	72.36%	-21.72	3-5
1999-11-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-13	1432.43	1533.25	27.35%	72.43%	+11.23	4-5
1999-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1443.66	1606.69	36.56%	63.21%	-9.83	4-6
1999-11-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1433.83	1405.33	44.21%	55.56%	+14.93	5-6
1999-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1448.76	1528.68	29.81%	69.97%	-9.26	5-7
1999-12-05	Green Bay Packers	L 19-35	1439.50	1549.26	43.92%	55.85%	-27.28	5-8
1999-12-19	Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1412.22	1548.69	40.18%	59.60%	+39.24	6-8
1999-12-26	@ St. Louis Rams	L 12-34	1451.46	1695.47	14.17%	85.61%	-10.33	6-9
2000-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-20	1441.13	1592.32	38.16%	61.62%	-22.18	6-10
1999-09-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 35-36	1438.89	1516.85	30.04%	69.73%	-4.67	0-1
1999-09-19	San Diego Chargers	L 7-34	1434.22	1451.10	57.20%	42.57%	-46.13	0-2
1999-09-26	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-27	1388.09	1455.61	31.32%	68.46%	-23.84	0-3
1999-10-03	St. Louis Rams	L 10-38	1364.25	1531.53	36.00%	63.78%	-29.59	0-4
1999-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 18-17	1334.66	1220.01	56.54%	43.23%	+6.71	1-4
1999-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-17	1341.37	1461.04	42.52%	57.25%	-24.71	1-5
1999-10-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1316.66	1508.09	18.27%	81.51%	-13.01	1-6
1999-10-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-41	1303.65	1633.85	18.05%	81.73%	-15.62	1-7
1999-11-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-37	1288.03	1602.59	9.91%	89.87%	-6.36	1-8
1999-11-14	Tennessee Titans	L 14-24	1281.67	1544.83	24.47%	75.31%	-12.02	1-9
1999-11-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 31-34	1269.65	1437.61	35.91%	63.87%	-9.66	1-10
1999-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-20	1259.99	1511.18	13.68%	86.10%	+35.35	2-10
1999-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 44-30	1295.34	1373.26	48.48%	51.30%	+29.80	3-10
1999-12-12	Cleveland Browns	W 44-28	1325.14	1182.17	76.97%	22.80%	+14.18	4-10
1999-12-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 0-22	1339.32	1522.94	18.95%	80.83%	-13.82	4-11
2000-01-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-24	1325.50	1663.29	8.78%	91.00%	-5.63	4-12
1999-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-43	1275.00	1497.32	29.06%	70.71%	-29.62	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Tennessee Titans	L 9-26	1245.38	1521.51	12.07%	87.71%	-7.73	0-2
1999-09-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1237.65	1440.38	17.31%	82.46%	-7.13	0-3
1999-10-03	New England Patriots	L 7-19	1230.52	1543.98	19.52%	80.26%	-10.51	0-4
1999-10-10	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-18	1220.01	1334.66	43.23%	56.54%	-6.71	0-5
1999-10-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-24	1213.30	1630.16	5.75%	94.02%	-3.69	0-6
1999-10-24	@ St. Louis Rams	L 3-34	1209.61	1627.07	5.73%	94.04%	-4.97	0-7
1999-10-31	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-16	1204.64	1410.29	17.08%	82.70%	+28.70	1-7
1999-11-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-41	1233.34	1411.27	34.60%	65.18%	-30.40	1-8
1999-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-15	1202.94	1538.94	8.86%	90.92%	+14.11	2-8
1999-11-21	Carolina Panthers	L 17-31	1217.05	1443.71	28.55%	71.22%	-16.60	2-9
1999-11-28	Tennessee Titans	L 21-33	1200.45	1570.51	14.90%	84.88%	-8.03	2-10
1999-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-23	1192.42	1383.59	18.29%	81.49%	-10.25	2-11
1999-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-44	1182.17	1325.14	22.80%	76.97%	-14.18	2-12
1999-12-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-24	1167.99	1710.46	6.09%	93.68%	-2.99	2-13
1999-12-26	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-29	1165.00	1657.85	7.95%	91.83%	-1.24	2-14
1999-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-35	1518.34	1489.68	44.24%	55.54%	+21.11	1-0
1999-09-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1539.45	1547.24	58.48%	41.30%	+26.45	2-0
1999-10-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-7	1565.90	1464.14	72.53%	27.24%	+22.40	3-0
1999-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1588.30	1368.64	70.39%	29.38%	-18.92	3-1
1999-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1569.38	1448.52	57.42%	42.36%	-15.44	3-2
1999-10-24	Washington Redskins	W 38-20	1553.94	1583.63	55.39%	44.38%	+29.24	4-2
1999-10-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-34	1583.18	1521.10	49.02%	50.75%	-24.06	4-3
1999-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-27	1559.12	1588.93	36.17%	63.61%	-17.77	4-4
1999-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1541.35	1522.02	62.21%	37.57%	+21.84	5-4
1999-11-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 9-13	1563.19	1413.53	61.41%	38.37%	-19.06	5-5
1999-11-25	Miami Dolphins	W 20-0	1544.13	1615.45	49.42%	50.35%	+34.95	6-5
1999-12-05	@ New England Patriots	L 6-13	1579.08	1514.89	49.33%	50.45%	-20.26	6-6
1999-12-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1558.82	1347.44	83.16%	16.61%	+8.17	7-6
1999-12-19	New York Jets	L 21-22	1566.99	1527.19	64.93%	34.85%	-10.08	7-7
1999-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1556.91	1319.12	72.51%	27.26%	-29.77	7-8
2000-01-02	New York Giants	W 26-18	1527.14	1447.09	69.99%	29.79%	+13.09	8-8
1999-09-13	Miami Dolphins	L 21-38	1591.07	1533.54	67.21%	32.57%	-43.00	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-26	1548.07	1495.07	47.72%	52.06%	-29.63	0-2
1999-09-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1518.44	1528.89	38.78%	61.00%	-10.44	0-3
1999-10-03	New York Jets	L 13-21	1508.00	1503.62	60.17%	39.61%	-26.41	0-4
1999-10-10	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-13	1481.59	1506.53	36.82%	62.96%	+16.93	1-4
1999-10-17	Green Bay Packers	W 31-10	1498.52	1561.39	50.64%	49.14%	+34.95	2-4
1999-10-24	@ New England Patriots	L 23-24	1533.47	1536.16	39.84%	59.93%	-6.18	2-5
1999-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1527.29	1574.71	52.86%	46.92%	-14.22	2-6
1999-11-07	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-17	1513.07	1458.02	48.01%	51.76%	+32.15	3-6
1999-11-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1545.22	1608.95	31.79%	67.98%	-8.56	3-7
1999-11-22	Oakland Raiders	W 27-21	1536.66	1522.00	61.57%	38.20%	+14.54	4-7
1999-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-16	1551.20	1546.65	60.19%	39.59%	-22.88	4-8
1999-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-27	1528.32	1705.19	19.55%	80.23%	-5.27	4-9
1999-12-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 36-30	1523.05	1557.29	54.74%	45.03%	+17.13	5-9
1999-12-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1540.18	1509.44	44.53%	55.24%	+27.12	6-9
2000-01-02	San Diego Chargers	L 6-12	1567.30	1425.75	76.83%	22.95%	-29.21	6-10
1999-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 28-20	1487.13	1521.50	35.56%	64.21%	+28.19	1-0
1999-09-19	Green Bay Packers	W 23-15	1515.32	1560.07	53.24%	46.53%	+20.43	2-0
1999-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-31	1535.75	1524.71	41.75%	58.02%	-20.50	2-1
1999-10-10	San Diego Chargers	L 10-20	1515.25	1490.86	62.89%	36.89%	-30.86	2-2
1999-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 25-23	1484.39	1557.20	49.21%	50.57%	+11.10	3-2
1999-10-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-9	1495.49	1487.73	41.29%	58.48%	+35.15	4-2
1999-10-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-3	1530.64	1523.01	60.61%	39.16%	+25.08	5-2
1999-11-07	St. Louis Rams	W 31-27	1555.72	1618.20	50.70%	49.08%	+15.24	6-2
1999-11-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 19-23	1570.96	1393.31	65.14%	34.64%	-20.22	6-3
1999-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-26	1550.74	1500.18	47.37%	52.41%	-22.06	6-4
1999-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1528.68	1448.76	69.97%	29.81%	+9.26	7-4
1999-12-05	Washington Redskins	W 33-17	1537.94	1532.06	60.37%	39.40%	+24.48	8-4
1999-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-23	1562.42	1613.28	33.42%	66.36%	-13.73	8-5
1999-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-28	1548.69	1412.22	59.60%	40.18%	-39.25	8-6
1999-12-25	Denver Broncos	L 7-17	1509.44	1540.18	55.24%	44.53%	-27.11	8-7
2000-01-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1482.33	1630.36	22.29%	77.48%	-9.17	8-8
1999-09-12	Oakland Raiders	W 28-24	1550.42	1480.59	68.74%	31.03%	+9.65	1-0
1999-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 15-23	1560.07	1515.32	46.53%	53.24%	-20.44	1-1
1999-09-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1539.63	1569.62	55.35%	44.43%	+11.95	2-1
1999-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-23	1551.58	1523.83	63.34%	36.44%	+9.81	3-1
1999-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-31	1561.39	1498.52	49.14%	50.64%	-34.96	3-2
1999-10-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-3	1526.43	1533.66	39.22%	60.56%	+49.73	4-2
1999-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-27	1576.16	1559.69	61.82%	37.96%	-42.91	4-3
1999-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1533.25	1432.43	72.43%	27.35%	-11.23	4-4
1999-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1522.02	1541.35	37.57%	62.21%	-21.84	4-5
1999-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 26-17	1500.18	1550.74	52.41%	47.37%	+22.06	5-5
1999-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-3	1522.24	1400.28	57.58%	42.20%	+27.02	6-5
1999-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-19	1549.26	1439.50	55.85%	43.92%	+27.29	7-5
1999-12-12	Carolina Panthers	L 31-33	1576.55	1453.88	74.85%	24.93%	-16.43	7-6
1999-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-24	1560.12	1593.02	35.76%	64.02%	-11.11	7-7
1999-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-29	1549.01	1566.73	37.79%	61.99%	-25.59	7-8
2000-01-02	Arizona Cardinals	W 49-24	1523.42	1390.76	75.91%	23.86%	+18.55	8-8
1999-09-12	Buffalo Bills	W 31-14	1455.39	1525.04	49.66%	50.11%	+32.08	1-0
1999-09-19	@ New England Patriots	L 28-31	1487.47	1527.61	34.81%	64.97%	-9.37	1-1
1999-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-19	1478.10	1497.23	37.60%	62.18%	+27.29	2-1
1999-10-10	Miami Dolphins	L 31-34	1505.39	1562.08	51.53%	48.25%	-13.85	2-2
1999-10-17	@ New York Jets	W 16-13	1491.54	1506.11	38.22%	61.56%	+16.55	3-2
1999-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-10	1508.09	1316.66	81.51%	18.27%	+13.01	4-2
1999-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-24	1521.10	1583.18	50.75%	49.02%	+24.07	5-2
1999-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 25-17	1545.17	1599.92	51.81%	47.97%	+21.06	6-2
1999-11-14	@ New York Giants	W 27-19	1566.23	1512.20	47.87%	51.91%	+22.80	7-2
1999-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 44-17	1589.03	1386.64	68.29%	31.49%	+25.42	8-2
1999-11-28	New York Jets	W 13-6	1614.45	1548.97	68.20%	31.57%	+12.98	9-2
1999-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 37-34	1627.43	1580.49	46.85%	52.93%	+14.23	10-2
1999-12-12	New England Patriots	W 20-15	1641.66	1535.15	73.07%	26.71%	+9.28	11-2
1999-12-19	Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1650.94	1535.14	74.10%	25.67%	+6.91	12-2
1999-12-26	@ Cleveland Browns	W 29-28	1657.85	1165.00	91.83%	7.95%	+1.23	13-2
2000-01-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-31	1659.08	1615.89	46.31%	53.47%	-35.95	13-3
1999-09-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-3	1538.14	1558.68	56.69%	43.09%	+41.25	1-0
1999-09-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 22-20	1579.39	1465.12	56.49%	43.29%	+9.50	2-0
1999-09-26	Tennessee Titans	L 19-20	1588.89	1529.25	67.47%	32.30%	-10.47	2-1
1999-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-3	1578.42	1496.40	51.89%	47.89%	+27.82	3-1
1999-10-11	@ New York Jets	W 16-6	1606.24	1530.04	51.05%	48.72%	+23.92	4-1
1999-10-17	Cleveland Browns	W 24-7	1630.16	1213.30	94.02%	5.75%	+3.69	5-1
1999-10-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-10	1633.85	1303.65	81.73%	18.05%	+15.62	6-1
1999-11-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-7	1649.47	1448.31	68.14%	31.64%	+23.58	7-1
1999-11-14	Baltimore Ravens	W 6-3	1673.05	1441.67	84.70%	15.08%	+4.06	8-1
1999-11-21	New Orleans Saints	W 41-23	1677.11	1391.61	88.27%	11.51%	+7.59	9-1
1999-11-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 30-23	1684.70	1447.27	72.47%	27.31%	+11.23	10-1
1999-12-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-6	1695.93	1475.82	83.85%	15.93%	+9.26	11-1
1999-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1705.19	1528.32	80.23%	19.55%	+5.27	12-1
1999-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-14	1710.46	1167.99	93.68%	6.09%	+3.00	13-1
1999-12-26	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-41	1713.46	1557.87	62.21%	37.56%	-50.17	13-2
2000-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1663.29	1325.50	91.00%	8.78%	+5.63	14-2
1999-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1507.40	1467.56	45.83%	53.95%	-12.33	0-1
1999-09-19	Denver Broncos	W 26-10	1495.07	1548.07	52.06%	47.72%	+29.64	1-1
1999-09-26	Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1524.71	1535.75	58.02%	41.75%	+20.50	2-1
1999-10-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1545.21	1469.94	50.92%	48.86%	-20.91	2-2
1999-10-10	New England Patriots	W 16-14	1524.30	1554.49	55.32%	44.46%	+9.76	3-2
1999-10-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 35-8	1534.06	1463.36	50.26%	49.51%	+39.95	4-2
1999-10-31	San Diego Chargers	W 34-0	1574.01	1483.93	71.18%	28.60%	+25.91	5-2
1999-11-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-25	1599.92	1545.17	47.97%	51.81%	-21.07	5-3
1999-11-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-17	1578.85	1523.79	48.01%	51.76%	-19.72	5-4
1999-11-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 19-31	1559.13	1617.50	51.29%	48.49%	-27.58	5-5
1999-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 37-34	1531.55	1507.46	43.59%	56.19%	+15.10	6-5
1999-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-10	1546.65	1551.20	39.59%	60.19%	+22.89	7-5
1999-12-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1569.54	1605.19	54.54%	45.23%	+12.16	8-5
1999-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-19	1581.70	1443.14	76.52%	23.25%	+14.46	9-5
1999-12-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-23	1596.16	1540.17	48.15%	51.63%	-22.43	9-6
2000-01-02	Oakland Raiders	L 38-41	1573.73	1546.31	63.29%	36.49%	-17.01	9-7
1999-09-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-21	1533.54	1591.07	32.57%	67.21%	+43.00	1-0
1999-09-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 19-16	1576.54	1503.95	69.08%	30.70%	+8.27	2-0
1999-10-04	Buffalo Bills	L 18-23	1584.81	1540.78	65.48%	34.30%	-22.73	2-1
1999-10-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-31	1562.08	1505.39	48.25%	51.53%	+13.86	3-1
1999-10-17	@ New England Patriots	W 31-30	1575.94	1544.73	44.60%	55.18%	+8.56	4-1
1999-10-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-13	1584.50	1409.94	80.02%	19.76%	+5.32	5-1
1999-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-9	1589.82	1521.96	49.85%	49.92%	+20.51	6-1
1999-11-07	Tennessee Titans	W 17-0	1610.33	1566.85	65.40%	34.37%	+22.02	7-1
1999-11-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-23	1632.35	1577.99	47.91%	51.86%	-33.27	7-2
1999-11-21	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1599.08	1547.47	66.45%	33.32%	+16.37	8-2
1999-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-20	1615.45	1544.13	50.35%	49.42%	-34.96	8-3
1999-12-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 34-37	1580.49	1627.43	52.93%	46.85%	-14.23	8-4
1999-12-12	@ New York Jets	L 20-28	1566.26	1505.76	48.80%	50.98%	-21.43	8-5
1999-12-19	San Diego Chargers	W 12-9	1544.83	1415.61	75.55%	24.23%	+6.53	9-5
1999-12-27	New York Jets	L 31-38	1551.36	1537.26	61.50%	38.28%	-25.25	9-6
2000-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-21	1526.11	1541.90	38.05%	61.73%	-19.61	9-7
1999-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1580.32	1562.59	42.69%	57.08%	+15.35	1-0
1999-09-19	Oakland Raiders	L 17-22	1595.67	1470.95	75.07%	24.70%	-26.05	1-1
1999-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1569.62	1539.63	44.43%	55.35%	-11.95	1-2
1999-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-14	1557.67	1539.32	62.07%	37.70%	+15.49	2-2
1999-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 22-24	1573.16	1469.56	72.74%	27.03%	-15.96	2-3
1999-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-25	1557.20	1484.39	50.57%	49.21%	-11.10	2-4
1999-10-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 40-16	1546.10	1527.03	62.17%	37.61%	+28.61	3-4
1999-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1574.71	1527.29	46.92%	52.86%	+14.22	4-4
1999-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-17	1588.93	1559.12	63.61%	36.17%	+17.76	5-4
1999-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1606.69	1443.66	63.21%	36.56%	+9.84	6-4
1999-11-28	San Diego Chargers	W 35-27	1616.53	1390.39	84.31%	15.47%	+6.80	7-4
1999-12-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-24	1623.33	1595.14	44.17%	55.60%	-18.14	7-5
1999-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-31	1605.19	1569.54	45.23%	54.54%	-12.17	7-6
1999-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 24-20	1593.02	1560.12	64.02%	35.76%	+11.11	8-6
1999-12-26	@ New York Giants	W 34-17	1604.13	1473.32	58.81%	40.96%	+26.23	9-6
2000-01-02	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1630.36	1482.33	77.48%	22.29%	+9.17	10-6
1999-09-12	@ New York Jets	W 30-28	1512.82	1571.67	32.40%	67.37%	+14.79	1-0
1999-09-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-28	1527.61	1487.47	64.97%	34.81%	+9.36	2-0
1999-09-26	New York Giants	W 16-14	1536.97	1474.01	67.89%	31.89%	+7.01	3-0
1999-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 19-7	1543.98	1230.52	80.26%	19.52%	+10.51	4-0
1999-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1554.49	1524.30	44.46%	55.32%	-9.76	4-1
1999-10-17	Miami Dolphins	L 30-31	1544.73	1575.94	55.18%	44.60%	-8.57	4-2
1999-10-24	Denver Broncos	W 24-23	1536.16	1533.47	59.93%	39.84%	+6.19	5-2
1999-10-31	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-3	1542.35	1437.61	55.14%	44.64%	+33.96	6-2
1999-11-15	New York Jets	L 17-24	1576.31	1494.23	70.23%	29.55%	-28.84	6-3
1999-11-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-27	1547.47	1599.08	33.32%	66.45%	-16.37	6-4
1999-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-17	1531.10	1585.35	32.99%	66.79%	-16.21	6-5
1999-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-6	1514.89	1579.08	50.45%	49.33%	+20.26	7-5
1999-12-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 15-20	1535.15	1641.66	26.71%	73.07%	-9.28	7-6
1999-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-24	1525.87	1339.28	66.30%	33.48%	-39.85	7-7
1999-12-26	Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1486.02	1604.41	42.70%	57.07%	-11.48	7-8
2000-01-02	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1474.54	1536.75	50.73%	49.04%	+31.39	8-8
1999-09-12	Carolina Panthers	W 19-10	1479.97	1484.13	58.98%	40.79%	+19.01	1-0
1999-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-28	1498.98	1517.43	37.69%	62.09%	-15.49	1-1
1999-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-14	1483.49	1455.86	44.09%	55.68%	-13.69	1-2
1999-10-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1469.80	1460.29	60.87%	38.91%	-16.37	1-3
1999-10-17	Tennessee Titans	L 21-24	1453.43	1540.32	47.19%	52.59%	-12.69	1-4
1999-10-24	@ New York Giants	L 3-31	1440.74	1463.95	37.05%	62.73%	-30.45	1-5
1999-10-31	Cleveland Browns	L 16-21	1410.29	1204.64	82.70%	17.08%	-28.70	1-6
1999-11-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-31	1381.59	1497.93	42.99%	56.78%	-25.86	1-7
1999-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-6	1355.73	1455.85	45.29%	54.48%	+35.88	2-7
1999-11-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 23-41	1391.61	1677.11	11.51%	88.27%	-7.59	2-8
1999-11-28	@ St. Louis Rams	L 12-43	1384.02	1640.49	13.32%	86.46%	-11.53	2-9
1999-12-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-35	1372.49	1400.03	36.47%	63.31%	-27.17	2-10
1999-12-12	St. Louis Rams	L 14-30	1345.32	1671.34	18.40%	81.37%	-11.45	2-11
1999-12-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 8-31	1333.87	1508.19	19.78%	79.99%	-14.75	2-12
1999-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1319.12	1556.91	27.26%	72.51%	+29.78	3-12
2000-01-02	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-45	1348.90	1464.61	25.68%	74.10%	-22.58	3-13
1999-09-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1511.82	1519.80	39.12%	60.66%	+18.83	1-0
1999-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 21-50	1530.65	1468.56	67.78%	32.00%	-56.64	1-1
1999-09-26	@ New England Patriots	L 14-16	1474.01	1536.97	31.89%	67.89%	-7.01	1-2
1999-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-15	1467.00	1373.02	71.64%	28.14%	+4.37	2-2
1999-10-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 3-14	1471.37	1441.73	44.38%	55.40%	-22.85	2-3
1999-10-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1448.52	1569.38	42.36%	57.42%	+15.43	3-3
1999-10-24	New Orleans Saints	W 31-3	1463.95	1440.74	62.73%	37.05%	+30.46	4-3
1999-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1494.41	1404.62	53.00%	46.77%	+17.79	5-3
1999-11-14	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-27	1512.20	1566.23	51.91%	47.87%	-22.80	5-4
1999-11-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-23	1489.40	1508.00	37.67%	62.11%	-18.50	5-5
1999-11-28	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-34	1470.90	1432.59	64.73%	35.05%	-31.77	5-6
1999-12-05	New York Jets	W 41-28	1439.13	1535.99	45.76%	54.02%	+30.23	6-6
1999-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-17	1469.36	1601.56	23.91%	75.86%	+16.65	7-6
1999-12-19	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-31	1486.01	1682.79	17.81%	81.97%	-12.69	7-7
1999-12-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-34	1473.32	1604.13	40.96%	58.81%	-26.23	7-8
2000-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 18-26	1447.09	1527.14	29.79%	69.99%	-13.09	7-9
1999-09-12	New England Patriots	L 28-30	1571.67	1512.82	67.37%	32.40%	-14.79	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-17	1556.88	1492.97	49.29%	50.49%	-28.63	0-2
1999-09-26	Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1528.25	1525.21	59.98%	39.79%	-24.63	0-3
1999-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 21-13	1503.62	1508.00	39.61%	60.17%	+26.42	1-3
1999-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-16	1530.04	1606.24	48.72%	51.05%	-23.93	1-4
1999-10-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-16	1506.11	1491.54	61.56%	38.22%	-16.54	1-5
1999-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-24	1489.57	1516.28	36.58%	63.20%	-5.69	1-6
1999-11-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 12-7	1483.88	1403.65	70.01%	29.77%	+10.35	2-6
1999-11-15	@ New England Patriots	W 24-17	1494.23	1576.31	29.55%	70.23%	+28.83	3-6
1999-11-21	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1523.06	1611.26	47.00%	52.78%	+25.91	4-6
1999-11-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-13	1548.97	1614.45	31.57%	68.20%	-12.98	4-7
1999-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 28-41	1535.99	1439.13	54.02%	45.76%	-30.23	4-8
1999-12-12	Miami Dolphins	W 28-20	1505.76	1566.26	50.98%	48.80%	+21.43	5-8
1999-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 22-21	1527.19	1566.99	34.85%	64.93%	+10.07	6-8
1999-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-31	1537.26	1551.36	38.28%	61.50%	+25.25	7-8
2000-01-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-9	1562.51	1562.59	59.55%	40.23%	+19.76	8-8
1999-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-28	1480.59	1550.42	31.03%	68.74%	-9.64	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 22-17	1470.95	1595.67	24.70%	75.07%	+26.05	1-1
1999-09-26	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1497.00	1470.93	63.11%	36.67%	+15.07	2-1
1999-10-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-22	1512.07	1546.02	35.62%	64.16%	-5.54	2-2
1999-10-10	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1506.53	1481.59	62.96%	36.82%	-16.92	2-3
1999-10-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1489.61	1571.05	29.62%	70.15%	+26.67	3-3
1999-10-24	New York Jets	W 24-23	1516.28	1489.57	63.20%	36.58%	+5.68	4-3
1999-10-31	Miami Dolphins	L 9-16	1521.96	1589.82	49.92%	49.85%	-20.51	4-4
1999-11-14	San Diego Chargers	W 28-9	1501.45	1425.87	69.45%	30.33%	+20.55	5-4
1999-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1522.00	1536.66	38.20%	61.57%	-14.54	5-5
1999-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-37	1507.46	1531.55	56.19%	43.59%	-15.10	5-6
1999-12-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-21	1492.36	1605.28	43.48%	56.30%	+26.21	6-6
1999-12-09	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-21	1518.57	1529.80	38.67%	61.10%	-15.89	6-7
1999-12-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-0	1502.68	1627.02	41.87%	57.91%	+60.29	7-7
1999-12-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-23	1562.97	1409.09	61.98%	37.79%	-16.66	7-8
2000-01-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-38	1546.31	1573.73	36.49%	63.29%	+17.01	8-8
1999-09-12	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-25	1427.86	1496.21	49.85%	49.92%	-7.74	0-1
1999-09-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 5-19	1420.12	1500.97	48.05%	51.72%	-27.92	0-2
1999-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-26	1392.20	1521.60	24.21%	75.57%	-19.18	0-3
1999-10-03	@ New York Giants	L 15-16	1373.02	1467.00	28.14%	71.64%	-4.38	0-4
1999-10-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1368.64	1588.30	29.38%	70.39%	+18.93	1-4
1999-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1387.57	1485.52	27.68%	72.10%	+22.37	2-4
1999-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1409.94	1584.50	19.76%	80.02%	-5.32	2-5
1999-10-31	New York Giants	L 17-23	1404.62	1494.41	46.77%	53.00%	-17.79	2-6
1999-11-07	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-33	1386.83	1434.78	33.79%	65.98%	-26.77	2-7
1999-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 35-28	1360.06	1534.58	35.05%	64.73%	+26.58	3-7
1999-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-44	1386.64	1589.03	31.49%	68.29%	-25.42	3-8
1999-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1361.22	1526.51	20.62%	79.16%	-5.55	3-9
1999-12-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-21	1355.67	1464.35	26.46%	73.32%	-8.23	3-10
1999-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1347.44	1558.82	16.61%	83.16%	-8.16	3-11
1999-12-19	New England Patriots	W 24-9	1339.28	1525.87	33.48%	66.30%	+39.84	4-11
2000-01-02	St. Louis Rams	W 38-31	1379.12	1705.81	18.35%	81.43%	+33.44	5-11
1999-09-12	@ Cleveland Browns	W 43-0	1497.32	1275.00	70.71%	29.06%	+29.62	1-0
1999-09-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1526.94	1453.59	50.64%	49.13%	+13.21	2-0
1999-09-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-29	1540.15	1502.27	64.67%	35.10%	-43.75	2-1
1999-10-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-17	1496.40	1578.42	47.89%	51.89%	-27.82	2-2
1999-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1468.58	1563.50	28.03%	71.74%	-7.54	2-3
1999-10-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-3	1461.04	1341.37	57.25%	42.52%	+24.71	3-3
1999-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-9	1485.75	1441.16	65.55%	34.23%	+10.63	4-3
1999-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-6	1496.38	1498.41	39.94%	59.84%	+42.56	5-3
1999-11-14	Cleveland Browns	L 15-16	1538.94	1202.94	90.92%	8.86%	-14.11	5-4
1999-11-21	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-16	1524.83	1556.86	35.87%	63.90%	-13.65	5-5
1999-11-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-27	1511.18	1259.99	86.10%	13.68%	-35.36	5-6
1999-12-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-20	1475.82	1695.93	15.93%	83.85%	-9.26	5-7
1999-12-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1466.56	1484.78	57.02%	42.76%	-23.42	5-8
1999-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-35	1443.14	1581.70	23.25%	76.52%	-14.45	5-9
1999-12-26	Carolina Panthers	W 30-20	1428.69	1488.52	51.08%	48.70%	+23.91	6-9
2000-01-02	Tennessee Titans	L 36-47	1452.60	1608.04	37.58%	62.19%	-19.37	6-10
1999-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-7	1451.10	1434.22	42.57%	57.20%	+46.13	1-0
1999-09-26	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-27	1497.23	1478.10	62.18%	37.60%	-27.29	1-1
1999-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-14	1469.94	1545.21	48.86%	50.92%	+20.92	2-1
1999-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-10	1490.86	1515.25	36.89%	62.89%	+30.86	3-1
1999-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1521.72	1551.55	55.37%	44.41%	+11.94	4-1
1999-10-24	Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1533.66	1526.43	60.56%	39.22%	-49.73	4-2
1999-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-34	1483.93	1574.01	28.60%	71.18%	-25.91	4-3
1999-11-07	Denver Broncos	L 17-33	1458.02	1513.07	51.76%	48.01%	-32.15	4-4
1999-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-28	1425.87	1501.45	30.33%	69.45%	-20.54	4-5
1999-11-21	Chicago Bears	L 20-23	1405.33	1433.83	55.56%	44.21%	-14.94	4-6
1999-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-35	1390.39	1616.53	15.47%	84.31%	-6.80	4-7
1999-12-05	Cleveland Browns	W 23-10	1383.59	1192.42	81.49%	18.29%	+10.25	5-7
1999-12-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-16	1393.84	1579.06	18.81%	80.97%	+21.77	6-7
1999-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-12	1415.61	1544.83	24.23%	75.55%	-6.52	6-8
1999-12-26	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1409.09	1562.97	37.79%	61.98%	+16.66	7-8
2000-01-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 12-6	1425.75	1567.30	22.95%	76.83%	+29.20	8-8
1999-09-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-41	1558.68	1538.14	43.09%	56.69%	-41.25	0-1
1999-09-19	New Orleans Saints	W 28-21	1517.43	1498.98	62.09%	37.69%	+15.49	1-1
1999-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-10	1532.92	1495.69	45.46%	54.32%	+31.55	2-1
1999-10-03	Tennessee Titans	W 24-22	1564.47	1539.72	62.93%	36.84%	+8.09	3-1
1999-10-10	@ St. Louis Rams	L 20-42	1572.56	1561.12	41.81%	57.97%	-30.46	3-2
1999-10-17	Carolina Panthers	L 29-31	1542.10	1472.65	68.69%	31.08%	-15.07	3-3
1999-10-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-40	1527.03	1546.10	37.61%	62.17%	-28.62	3-4
1999-11-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-27	1498.41	1496.38	59.84%	39.94%	-42.56	3-5
1999-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-24	1455.85	1355.73	54.48%	45.29%	-35.88	3-6
1999-11-21	St. Louis Rams	L 7-23	1419.97	1620.80	31.68%	68.10%	-19.69	3-7
1999-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1400.28	1522.24	42.20%	57.58%	-27.02	3-8
1999-12-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-44	1373.26	1295.34	51.30%	48.48%	-29.80	3-9
1999-12-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-7	1343.46	1427.20	47.64%	52.14%	+35.28	4-9
1999-12-18	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-41	1378.74	1470.31	28.42%	71.35%	-18.21	4-10
1999-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1360.53	1528.23	35.94%	63.83%	-13.68	4-11
2000-01-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 29-34	1346.85	1414.51	31.30%	68.47%	-10.87	4-12
1999-09-12	Detroit Lions	L 20-28	1521.50	1487.13	64.21%	35.56%	-28.18	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 14-13	1493.32	1479.89	42.09%	57.69%	+8.95	1-1
1999-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-10	1502.27	1540.15	35.10%	64.67%	+43.75	2-1
1999-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 22-21	1546.02	1512.07	64.16%	35.62%	+5.53	3-1
1999-10-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-13	1551.55	1521.72	44.41%	55.37%	-11.94	3-2
1999-10-24	Buffalo Bills	W 26-16	1539.61	1544.38	58.90%	40.88%	+20.08	4-2
1999-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1559.69	1576.16	37.96%	61.82%	+42.90	5-2
1999-11-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-20	1602.59	1288.03	89.87%	9.91%	+6.36	6-2
1999-11-14	Denver Broncos	W 20-17	1608.95	1545.22	67.98%	31.79%	+8.55	7-2
1999-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-19	1617.50	1559.13	48.49%	51.29%	+27.58	8-2
1999-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-16	1645.08	1555.33	71.14%	28.64%	-39.80	8-3
1999-12-05	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-30	1605.28	1492.36	56.30%	43.48%	-26.22	8-4
1999-12-12	San Diego Chargers	L 16-19	1579.06	1393.84	80.97%	18.81%	-21.77	8-5
1999-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 30-36	1557.29	1523.05	45.03%	54.74%	-17.12	8-6
1999-12-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-14	1540.17	1596.16	51.63%	48.15%	+22.42	9-6
2000-01-02	@ New York Jets	L 9-19	1562.59	1562.51	40.23%	59.55%	-19.76	9-7
1999-09-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-10	1468.79	1480.37	57.95%	41.83%	+26.79	1-0
1999-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-7	1495.58	1520.80	56.03%	43.75%	+35.95	2-0
1999-10-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-10	1531.53	1364.25	63.78%	36.00%	+29.59	3-0
1999-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-20	1561.12	1572.56	57.97%	41.81%	+30.45	4-0
1999-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-13	1591.57	1476.65	56.58%	43.19%	+35.50	5-0
1999-10-24	Cleveland Browns	W 34-3	1627.07	1209.61	94.04%	5.73%	+4.96	6-0
1999-10-31	@ Tennessee Titans	L 21-24	1632.03	1553.01	51.46%	48.32%	-13.83	6-1
1999-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-31	1618.20	1555.72	49.08%	50.70%	-15.24	6-2
1999-11-14	Carolina Panthers	W 35-10	1602.96	1461.55	76.82%	22.96%	+17.84	7-2
1999-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-7	1620.80	1419.97	68.10%	31.68%	+19.69	8-2
1999-11-28	New Orleans Saints	W 43-12	1640.49	1384.02	86.46%	13.32%	+11.54	9-2
1999-12-05	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-21	1652.03	1473.20	65.29%	34.48%	+19.31	10-2
1999-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-14	1671.34	1345.32	81.37%	18.40%	+11.45	11-2
1999-12-19	New York Giants	W 31-10	1682.79	1486.01	81.97%	17.81%	+12.68	12-2
1999-12-26	Chicago Bears	W 34-12	1695.47	1451.46	85.61%	14.17%	+10.34	13-2
2000-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-38	1705.81	1379.12	81.43%	18.35%	-33.44	13-3
1999-09-12	New York Giants	L 13-17	1519.80	1511.82	60.66%	39.12%	-18.83	0-1
1999-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-5	1500.97	1420.12	51.72%	48.05%	+27.92	1-1
1999-09-26	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1528.89	1518.44	61.00%	38.78%	+10.43	2-1
1999-10-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-21	1539.32	1557.67	37.70%	62.07%	-15.49	2-2
1999-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-26	1523.83	1551.58	36.44%	63.34%	-9.81	2-3
1999-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 6-3	1514.02	1463.14	66.36%	33.42%	+8.99	3-3
1999-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-20	1523.01	1530.64	39.16%	60.61%	-25.08	3-4
1999-11-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-16	1497.93	1381.59	56.78%	42.99%	+25.86	4-4
1999-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1523.79	1578.85	51.76%	48.01%	+19.72	5-4
1999-11-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 19-10	1543.51	1424.74	74.43%	25.35%	+11.82	6-4
1999-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-3	1555.33	1645.08	28.64%	71.14%	+39.81	7-4
1999-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-17	1595.14	1623.33	55.60%	44.17%	+18.14	8-4
1999-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 23-16	1613.28	1562.42	66.36%	33.42%	+13.74	9-4
1999-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-45	1627.02	1502.68	57.91%	41.87%	-60.29	9-5
1999-12-26	Green Bay Packers	W 29-10	1566.73	1549.01	61.99%	37.79%	+25.59	10-5
2000-01-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-6	1592.32	1441.13	61.62%	38.16%	+22.17	11-5
1999-09-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 36-35	1516.85	1438.89	69.73%	30.04%	+4.66	1-0
1999-09-19	Cleveland Browns	W 26-9	1521.51	1245.38	87.71%	12.07%	+7.74	2-0
1999-09-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-19	1529.25	1588.89	32.30%	67.47%	+10.47	3-0
1999-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 22-24	1539.72	1564.47	36.84%	62.93%	-8.09	3-1
1999-10-10	Baltimore Ravens	W 14-11	1531.63	1472.06	67.46%	32.31%	+8.69	4-1
1999-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1540.32	1453.43	52.59%	47.19%	+12.69	5-1
1999-10-31	St. Louis Rams	W 24-21	1553.01	1632.03	48.32%	51.46%	+13.84	6-1
1999-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-17	1566.85	1610.33	34.37%	65.40%	-22.02	6-2
1999-11-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1544.83	1281.67	75.31%	24.47%	+12.03	7-2
1999-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-10	1556.86	1524.83	63.90%	35.87%	+13.65	8-2
1999-11-28	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-21	1570.51	1200.45	84.88%	14.90%	+8.02	9-2
1999-12-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-41	1578.53	1436.05	60.43%	39.35%	-48.73	9-3
1999-12-09	Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1529.80	1518.57	61.10%	38.67%	+15.89	10-3
1999-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-17	1545.69	1391.92	78.05%	21.73%	+12.18	11-3
1999-12-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-14	1557.87	1713.46	37.56%	62.21%	+50.17	12-3
2000-01-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 47-36	1608.04	1452.60	62.19%	37.58%	+19.36	13-3
1999-09-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 35-41	1489.68	1518.34	55.54%	44.24%	-21.12	0-1
1999-09-19	@ New York Giants	W 50-21	1468.56	1530.65	32.00%	67.78%	+56.65	1-1
1999-09-26	@ New York Jets	W 27-20	1525.21	1528.25	39.79%	59.98%	+24.63	2-1
1999-10-03	Carolina Panthers	W 38-36	1549.84	1479.46	68.81%	30.97%	+6.80	3-1
1999-10-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-10	1556.64	1464.59	53.33%	46.45%	+26.99	4-1
1999-10-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-38	1583.63	1553.94	44.38%	55.39%	-29.25	4-2
1999-10-31	Chicago Bears	W 48-22	1554.38	1454.15	72.36%	27.42%	+21.73	5-2
1999-11-07	Buffalo Bills	L 17-34	1576.11	1536.46	64.91%	34.87%	-41.53	5-3
1999-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-35	1534.58	1360.06	64.73%	35.05%	-26.58	5-4
1999-11-21	New York Giants	W 23-13	1508.00	1489.40	62.11%	37.67%	+18.51	6-4
1999-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1526.51	1361.22	79.16%	20.62%	+5.55	7-4
1999-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-33	1532.06	1537.94	39.40%	60.37%	-24.48	7-5
1999-12-12	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-3	1507.58	1472.58	64.30%	35.48%	+27.56	8-5
1999-12-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-24	1535.14	1650.94	25.67%	74.10%	-6.91	8-6
1999-12-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-20	1528.23	1360.53	63.83%	35.94%	+13.67	9-6
2000-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 21-10	1541.90	1526.11	61.73%	38.05%	+19.60	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2000-01-08	@ Tennessee Titans	L 16-22	1651.85	1627.40	43.75%	56.25%	-16.60	0-1
2000-01-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1540.23	1639.53	27.62%	72.38%	-17.63	0-1
2000-01-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-27	1473.16	1561.50	28.89%	71.11%	-16.75	0-1
2000-01-16	Tennessee Titans	L 16-19	1623.13	1644.00	56.76%	43.24%	-15.23	0-1
2000-01-15	Miami Dolphins	W 62-7	1668.92	1523.83	77.33%	22.67%	+26.04	1-0
2000-01-23	Tennessee Titans	L 14-33	1694.96	1659.23	64.51%	35.49%	-43.56	1-1
2000-01-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1506.50	1542.83	35.41%	64.59%	+17.33	1-0
2000-01-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-62	1523.83	1668.92	22.67%	77.33%	-26.04	1-1
2000-01-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-10	1639.53	1540.23	72.38%	27.62%	+17.64	1-0
2000-01-16	@ St. Louis Rams	L 37-49	1657.17	1672.37	38.24%	61.76%	-20.52	1-1
2000-01-09	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1542.83	1506.50	64.59%	35.41%	-17.33	0-1
2000-01-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 49-37	1672.37	1657.17	61.76%	38.24%	+20.52	1-0
2000-01-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 11-6	1692.89	1619.98	69.25%	30.75%	+10.65	2-0
2000-01-30	Tennessee Titans	W 23-16	1703.54	1702.79	50.11%	49.89%	+20.45	3-0
2000-01-15	Washington Redskins	W 14-13	1614.49	1578.25	64.58%	35.42%	+5.49	1-0
2000-01-23	@ St. Louis Rams	L 6-11	1619.98	1692.89	30.75%	69.25%	-10.65	1-1
2000-01-08	Buffalo Bills	W 22-16	1627.40	1651.85	56.25%	43.75%	+16.60	1-0
2000-01-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 19-16	1644.00	1623.13	43.24%	56.76%	+15.23	2-0
2000-01-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-14	1659.23	1694.96	35.49%	64.51%	+43.56	3-0
2000-01-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 16-23	1702.79	1703.54	49.89%	50.11%	-20.45	3-1
2000-01-08	Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1561.50	1473.16	71.11%	28.89%	+16.75	1-0
2000-01-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-14	1578.25	1614.49	35.42%	64.58%	-5.49	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1999-11-14	8.86%	Cleveland Browns	1202.94	16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1538.94	15
2	1999-11-28	13.68%	Cincinnati Bengals	1259.99	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1511.18	20
3	1999-10-31	17.08%	Cleveland Browns	1204.64	21	@ New Orleans Saints	1410.29	16
4	2000-01-02	18.35%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1379.12	38	St. Louis Rams	1705.81	31
5	1999-12-12	18.81%	San Diego Chargers	1393.84	19	@ Seattle Seahawks	1579.06	16
6	2000-01-02	22.95%	San Diego Chargers	1425.75	12	@ Denver Broncos	1567.30	6
7	1999-12-12	23.91%	New York Giants	1469.36	19	@ Buffalo Bills	1601.56	17
8	1999-09-19	24.70%	Oakland Raiders	1470.95	22	@ Minnesota Vikings	1595.67	17
9	1999-12-12	24.93%	Carolina Panthers	1453.88	33	@ Green Bay Packers	1576.55	31
10	1999-10-10	27.03%	Chicago Bears	1469.56	24	@ Minnesota Vikings	1573.16	22
11	1999-12-24	27.26%	@ New Orleans Saints	1319.12	31	Dallas Cowboys	1556.91	24
12	1999-11-07	27.35%	Chicago Bears	1432.43	14	@ Green Bay Packers	1533.25	13
13	1999-10-17	27.68%	Philadelphia Eagles	1387.57	20	@ Chicago Bears	1485.52	16
14	1999-11-28	28.64%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1555.33	16	@ Seattle Seahawks	1645.08	3
15	1999-10-10	29.38%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1368.64	13	Dallas Cowboys	1588.30	10
16	1999-11-15	29.55%	New York Jets	1494.23	24	@ New England Patriots	1576.31	17
17	1999-10-17	29.62%	Oakland Raiders	1489.61	20	@ Buffalo Bills	1571.05	14
18	1999-10-17	31.08%	Carolina Panthers	1472.65	31	@ San Francisco 49ers	1542.10	29
19	1999-09-19	32.00%	Washington Redskins	1468.56	50	@ New York Giants	1530.65	21
20	1999-09-26	32.30%	Tennessee Titans	1529.25	20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1588.89	19
21	1999-09-12	32.40%	New England Patriots	1512.82	30	@ New York Jets	1571.67	28
22	1999-09-13	32.57%	Miami Dolphins	1533.54	38	@ Denver Broncos	1591.07	21
23	1999-12-19	33.48%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1339.28	24	New England Patriots	1525.87	9
24	1999-10-04	34.30%	Buffalo Bills	1540.78	23	@ Miami Dolphins	1584.81	18
25	1999-11-14	34.64%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1393.31	23	Detroit Lions	1570.96	19

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1999-12-19	60.29	@ Oakland Raiders	45	1502.68	41.87%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1627.02	57.91%
2	1999-09-19	56.65	Washington Redskins	50	1468.56	32.00%	@ New York Giants	21	1530.65	67.78%
3	1999-12-26	50.17	@ Tennessee Titans	41	1557.87	37.56%	Jacksonville Jaguars	14	1713.46	62.21%
4	1999-10-24	49.73	Green Bay Packers	31	1526.43	39.22%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1533.66	60.56%
5	1999-12-05	48.73	@ Baltimore Ravens	41	1436.05	39.35%	Tennessee Titans	14	1578.53	60.43%
6	1999-09-19	46.13	San Diego Chargers	34	1451.10	42.57%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1434.22	57.20%
7	1999-09-26	43.75	Seattle Seahawks	29	1502.27	35.10%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1540.15	64.67%
8	2000-01-23 *	43.56	Tennessee Titans	33	1659.23	35.49%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	14	1694.96	64.51%
9	1999-09-13	43.00	Miami Dolphins	38	1533.54	32.57%	@ Denver Broncos	21	1591.07	67.21%
10	1999-11-01	42.91	Seattle Seahawks	27	1559.69	37.96%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1576.16	61.82%
11	1999-11-07	42.56	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1496.38	39.94%	@ San Francisco 49ers	6	1498.41	59.84%
12	1999-11-07	41.53	Buffalo Bills	34	1536.46	34.87%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1576.11	64.91%
13	1999-09-12	41.25	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	41	1538.14	56.69%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1558.68	43.09%
14	1999-10-21	39.95	Kansas City Chiefs	35	1534.06	50.26%	@ Baltimore Ravens	8	1463.36	49.51%
15	1999-12-19	39.85	@ Philadelphia Eagles	24	1339.28	33.48%	New England Patriots	9	1525.87	66.30%
16	1999-11-28	39.81	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	1555.33	28.64%	@ Seattle Seahawks	3	1645.08	71.14%
17	1999-12-19	39.25	@ Chicago Bears	28	1412.22	40.18%	Detroit Lions	10	1548.69	59.60%
18	2000-01-02	35.96	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1615.89	53.47%	Indianapolis Colts	6	1659.08	46.31%
19	1999-09-26	35.95	@ St. Louis Rams	35	1495.58	56.03%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1520.80	43.75%
20	1999-11-14	35.88	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1355.73	45.29%	San Francisco 49ers	6	1455.85	54.48%
21	1999-10-17	35.50	St. Louis Rams	41	1591.57	56.58%	@ Atlanta Falcons	13	1476.65	43.19%
22	1999-11-28	35.36	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1259.99	13.68%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1511.18	86.10%
23	1999-12-12	35.28	@ San Francisco 49ers	26	1343.46	47.64%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1427.20	52.14%
24	1999-10-24	35.16	Detroit Lions	24	1495.49	41.29%	@ Carolina Panthers	9	1487.73	58.48%
25	1999-10-17	34.96	@ Denver Broncos	31	1498.52	50.64%	Green Bay Packers	10	1561.39	49.14%