1991 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1987

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1990

Biggest Overachiever

Dallas Cowboys

3.62 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.38 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Indianapolis Colts

3.69 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.69 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Oilers Division	11	5	.688	—	386	251	+135	10.83	+0.17
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	9	.438	4	292	344	-52	7.52	-0.52
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	10	.375	5	293	298	-5	6.48	-0.48
4	Cincinnati Bengals	3	13	.188	8	263	435	-172	4.94	-1.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	3	.812	—	458	318	+140	11.98	+1.02
2	New York Jets Playoffs	8	8	.500	5	314	293	+21	8.06	-0.06
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	5	343	349	-6	9.01	-1.01
4	New England Patriots	6	10	.375	7	211	305	-94	5.02	+0.98
5	Indianapolis Colts	1	15	.062	12	143	381	-238	4.69	-3.69

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	12	4	.750	—	304	235	+69	9.61	+2.39
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	322	252	+70	9.64	+0.36
3	Los Angeles Raiders Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	298	297	+1	8.53	+0.47
4	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	.438	5	276	261	+15	8.57	-1.57
5	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	8	274	342	-68	5.41	-1.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	12	4	.750	—	339	295	+44	8.84	+3.16
2	Chicago Bears Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	299	269	+30	9.35	+1.65
3	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	.500	4	301	306	-5	8.91	-0.91
4	Green Bay Packers	4	12	.250	8	273	313	-40	5.66	-1.66
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	13	.188	9	199	365	-166	5.01	-2.01

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	14	2	.875	—	485	224	+261	12.17	+1.83
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	11	5	.688	3	342	310	+32	7.38	+3.62
3	Philadelphia Eagles	10	6	.625	4	285	244	+41	8.84	+1.16
4	New York Giants	8	8	.500	6	281	297	-16	8.94	-0.94
5	Phoenix Cardinals	4	12	.250	10	196	344	-148	5.59	-1.59

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	11	5	.688	—	341	211	+130	10.38	+0.62
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	361	338	+23	7.57	+2.43
3	San Francisco 49ers	10	6	.625	1	393	239	+154	9.86	+0.14
4	Los Angeles Rams	3	13	.188	8	234	390	-156	5.21	-2.21

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Kansas City Chiefs 10

Los Angeles Raiders 6

Dec 28

Houston Oilers 17

New York Jets 10

Dec 29

Divisional Round

Denver Broncos 26

Houston Oilers 24

Jan 4

Buffalo Bills 37

Kansas City Chiefs 14

Jan 5

Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills 10

Denver Broncos 7

Jan 12

NFC

Wild Card Round

Atlanta Falcons 27

New Orleans Saints 20

Dec 28

Dallas Cowboys 17

Chicago Bears 13

Dec 29

Divisional Round

Washington Redskins 24

Atlanta Falcons 7

Jan 4

Detroit Lions 38

Dallas Cowboys 6

Jan 5

Conference Championship

Washington Redskins 41

Detroit Lions 10

Jan 12

Super Bowl

Washington Redskins 37

Buffalo Bills 24

Jan 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1774	14	12.17	+1.83	93.19%	4	9	11	12	13	15	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1734	10	9.86	+0.14	63.21%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1683	13	11.98	+1.02	81.81%	4	9	11	12	13	15	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1650	12	8.84	+3.16	97.81%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1636	11	10.38	+0.62	72.87%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1635	12	9.61	+2.39	94.65%	1	7	8	10	11	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1631	10	9.64	+0.36	67.82%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1628	11	7.38	+3.62	98.76%	1	4	6	7	9	10	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1613	10	8.84	+1.16	81.14%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1609	11	10.83	+0.17	63.76%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1581	10	7.57	+2.43	94.74%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1574	11	9.35	+1.65	88.85%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1535	8	8.94	-0.94	40.86%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1521	9	8.53	+0.47	69.61%	0	5	7	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1489	8	8.06	-0.06	59.74%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1475	7	8.57	-1.57	28.74%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1472	7	7.52	-0.52	50.01%	0	5	6	7	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1471	8	9.01	-1.01	39.06%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1418	8	8.91	-0.91	41.32%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1415	6	6.48	-0.48	51.30%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1411	4	5.41	-1.41	32.07%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1405	4	5.66	-1.66	27.01%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1338	3	4.94	-1.94	21.58%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1306	6	5.02	+0.98	80.95%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1281	3	5.01	-2.01	19.52%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1275	3	5.21	-2.21	16.99%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1274	4	5.59	-1.59	27.42%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1164	1	4.69	-3.69	2.34%	0	2	3	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—
Houston Oilers	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	4-0 (3.1 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	2-1 (2.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.45%	2.01%	2.46%	2.46%	1.56%	0.45%	0.45%	9.82%
7–13	2.01%	2.23%	8.26%	3.79%	1.79%	0.45%	0.45%	18.97%
14–20	2.46%	8.26%	9.82%	6.47%	2.68%	0.89%	1.34%	31.92%
21–27	2.46%	3.79%	6.47%	5.80%	2.68%	1.12%	—	22.32%
28–34	1.56%	1.79%	2.68%	2.68%	0.89%	0.89%	0.22%	10.71%
35–41	0.45%	0.45%	0.89%	1.12%	0.89%	—	—	3.79%
42+	0.45%	0.45%	1.34%	—	0.22%	—	—	2.46%
Total	9.82%	18.97%	31.92%	22.32%	10.71%	3.79%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.99	18.99	+0.00
SD	9.90	9.90	14.80
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	56	56	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.56	21.12	+1.44
SD	11.55	12.25	16.79
CV	0.51	0.58	—
Max	43	56	+36
Min	3	7	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.62	19.88	+8.75
SD	12.31	8.81	14.23
CV	0.43	0.44	—
Max	52	34	+36
Min	6	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	50.00%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	16.81	+1.88
SD	8.32	12.51	15.43
CV	0.45	0.74	—
Max	34	52	+27
Min	6	0	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.44	27.19	-10.75
SD	8.39	11.08	14.23
CV	0.51	0.41	—
Max	29	45	+22
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.31	18.62	-0.31
SD	7.41	10.70	12.65
CV	0.40	0.57	—
Max	31	42	+31
Min	7	0	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.38	19.38	+2.00
SD	8.99	8.20	12.66
CV	0.42	0.42	—
Max	35	34	+20
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	50.00%	—	—	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	14.69	+4.31
SD	8.55	8.93	11.89
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	45	42	+31
Min	9	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.19	18.44	+2.75
SD	10.67	10.89	19.16
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	34	45	+28
Min	0	3	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	19.56	-2.50
SD	8.23	10.15	11.76
CV	0.48	0.52	—
Max	31	35	+27
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	15.69	+8.44
SD	10.97	7.36	14.41
CV	0.45	0.47	—
Max	47	26	+32
Min	6	3	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	56.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.94	23.81	-14.88
SD	8.28	9.17	10.74
CV	0.93	0.39	—
Max	28	42	+1
Min	0	10	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	15.75	+4.38
SD	8.89	7.16	12.87
CV	0.44	0.45	—
Max	42	28	+35
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	18.56	+0.06
SD	8.82	11.42	14.69
CV	0.47	0.62	—
Max	38	47	+24
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	62.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.62	24.38	-9.75
SD	6.30	5.00	9.10
CV	0.43	0.21	—
Max	30	33	+6
Min	6	13	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.44	21.81	-0.38
SD	8.99	13.08	14.50
CV	0.42	0.60	—
Max	37	42	+24
Min	7	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.81	19.12	-0.31
SD	10.28	9.57	15.99
CV	0.55	0.50	—
Max	35	34	+28
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.19	19.06	-5.88
SD	8.19	7.73	9.85
CV	0.62	0.41	—
Max	26	30	+9
Min	0	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	62.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.31	13.19	+8.12
SD	5.57	11.10	12.70
CV	0.26	0.84	—
Max	27	38	+27
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	56.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	18.56	-1.00
SD	4.86	7.18	9.48
CV	0.28	0.39	—
Max	24	34	+13
Min	7	9	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.62	18.31	+1.31
SD	8.36	8.33	9.57
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	41	34	+21
Min	3	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.81	15.25	+2.56
SD	9.75	8.83	14.46
CV	0.55	0.58	—
Max	34	30	+24
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.25	21.50	-9.25
SD	8.17	8.61	15.44
CV	0.67	0.40	—
Max	26	34	+16
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.25	21.50	-3.25
SD	8.28	12.64	14.12
CV	0.45	0.59	—
Max	34	52	+18
Min	6	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	21.38	-4.25
SD	8.41	7.61	8.26
CV	0.49	0.36	—
Max	38	34	+8
Min	3	9	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	37.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.56	14.94	+9.62
SD	13.08	8.31	14.15
CV	0.53	0.56	—
Max	52	39	+38
Min	3	3	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	16.31	+0.94
SD	7.19	8.40	13.19
CV	0.42	0.51	—
Max	31	31	+28
Min	6	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.44	22.81	-10.38
SD	8.13	9.28	14.26
CV	0.65	0.41	—
Max	30	43	+14
Min	0	3	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.31	14.00	+16.31
SD	11.52	9.62	14.95
CV	0.38	0.69	—
Max	56	31	+45
Min	16	0	-3

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	11	7.38	+3.62
2	Detroit Lions	12	8.84	+3.16
3	Atlanta Falcons	10	7.57	+2.43
4	Denver Broncos	12	9.61	+2.39
5	Washington Redskins	14	12.17	+1.83

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	1	4.69	-3.69
2	Los Angeles Rams	3	5.21	-2.21
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	5.01	-2.01
4	Cincinnati Bengals	3	4.94	-1.94
5	Green Bay Packers	4	5.66	-1.66

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	5	Nov 24 – Dec 22	1 in 196
2	Detroit Lions	6	Nov 17 – Dec 22	1 in 50
3	Washington Redskins	11	Sep 1 – Nov 17	1 in 44
4	New Orleans Saints	7	Sep 1 – Oct 20	1 in 38
5	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Nov 4 – Dec 8	1 in 33

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	4	Nov 17 – Dec 8	1 in 74
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	Sep 1 – Nov 3	1 in 69
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Sep 1 – Oct 27	1 in 23
4	Los Angeles Rams	10	Oct 20 – Dec 22	1 in 22
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Sep 30 – Oct 27	1 in 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Oilers	84.79%	12.21%	2.61%	0.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.95%	48.62%	29.52%	11.91%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.37%	28.96%	41.40%	25.28%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.89%	10.21%	26.47%	62.42%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	81.82%	14.71%	3.23%	0.21%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	12.30%	49.41%	29.43%	7.09%	1.77%
New York Jets	5.66%	30.97%	46.36%	13.20%	3.82%
New England Patriots	0.15%	2.84%	11.73%	42.64%	42.64%
Indianapolis Colts	0.08%	2.06%	9.25%	36.86%	51.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Kansas City Chiefs	35.57%	27.41%	20.18%	13.46%	3.39%
Denver Broncos	31.35%	27.44%	21.99%	15.23%	3.99%
Seattle Seahawks	16.85%	22.01%	25.89%	26.54%	8.71%
Los Angeles Raiders	15.46%	20.87%	25.91%	28.21%	9.55%
San Diego Chargers	0.77%	2.27%	6.03%	16.56%	74.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	39.91%	30.49%	21.65%	6.53%	1.42%
Minnesota Vikings	29.01%	30.87%	27.29%	9.99%	2.84%
Detroit Lions	28.54%	30.41%	27.85%	10.19%	3.01%
Green Bay Packers	1.80%	5.37%	13.86%	40.16%	38.81%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.74%	2.87%	9.35%	33.14%	53.91%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	79.42%	15.32%	4.17%	0.99%	0.10%
New York Giants	8.77%	34.64%	30.99%	18.67%	6.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.37%	33.26%	31.00%	19.17%	7.19%
Dallas Cowboys	2.18%	13.58%	24.75%	37.16%	22.33%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.27%	3.19%	9.09%	24.01%	63.44%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	53.11%	34.01%	11.11%	1.78%
San Francisco 49ers	39.12%	42.05%	16.04%	2.79%
Atlanta Falcons	7.01%	20.20%	54.17%	18.62%
Los Angeles Rams	0.77%	3.74%	18.68%	76.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Buffalo Bills	47.90%	23.16%	13.15%	6.46%	4.31%	2.33%	1.30%	0.77%	0.34%	0.16%	0.07%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	21.50%	25.86%	20.94%	11.18%	7.26%	5.22%	3.33%	2.10%	1.33%	0.74%	0.34%	0.15%	0.05%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.03%	13.38%	14.89%	14.32%	11.39%	9.57%	8.52%	6.46%	5.09%	3.61%	2.02%	1.06%	0.48%	0.19%
Denver Broncos	7.54%	12.70%	13.91%	14.09%	11.61%	10.29%	9.33%	6.87%	5.50%	4.00%	2.11%	1.22%	0.63%	0.20%
Miami Dolphins	4.66%	6.49%	9.33%	13.51%	15.98%	12.62%	10.74%	9.60%	6.76%	4.37%	3.03%	1.55%	0.86%	0.49%
Seattle Seahawks	2.86%	6.32%	8.98%	10.71%	10.57%	11.03%	11.43%	10.07%	9.25%	8.01%	5.00%	3.09%	1.89%	0.79%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.52%	5.92%	7.84%	10.20%	10.05%	10.87%	11.69%	10.59%	9.69%	8.34%	5.24%	3.17%	2.02%	0.85%
New York Jets	1.84%	2.85%	4.72%	8.44%	11.28%	11.39%	12.48%	13.87%	11.55%	8.26%	6.04%	3.74%	2.19%	1.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.85%	2.14%	3.80%	5.97%	8.81%	12.67%	12.13%	12.50%	12.26%	10.44%	7.72%	5.48%	3.59%	1.62%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.20%	0.78%	1.52%	2.84%	4.63%	7.24%	8.33%	10.49%	13.08%	14.11%	12.24%	10.80%	8.87%	4.87%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.23%	0.44%	1.00%	1.33%	2.11%	3.29%	4.55%	6.90%	10.29%	13.12%	17.86%	20.71%	18.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.09%	0.21%	0.53%	1.15%	2.07%	3.04%	4.61%	7.21%	10.35%	13.82%	18.48%	21.00%	17.40%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.06%	0.16%	0.45%	0.94%	1.49%	2.54%	4.20%	6.13%	9.60%	15.65%	16.97%	18.09%	23.71%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.29%	0.69%	1.09%	1.84%	3.34%	4.91%	7.71%	13.61%	16.38%	19.62%	30.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Washington Redskins	52.95%	20.98%	10.68%	6.08%	3.79%	2.30%	1.48%	0.85%	0.47%	0.26%	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	14.10%	21.39%	15.92%	12.98%	10.95%	8.20%	5.73%	4.30%	3.04%	1.74%	0.97%	0.48%	0.18%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	9.37%	15.85%	13.88%	13.53%	12.31%	10.38%	7.77%	6.13%	4.92%	2.89%	1.62%	0.89%	0.36%	0.11%
Chicago Bears	5.86%	10.52%	14.24%	12.12%	11.71%	11.51%	9.63%	8.47%	6.55%	4.01%	2.85%	1.50%	0.67%	0.35%
Minnesota Vikings	3.61%	8.02%	10.97%	10.63%	10.97%	11.73%	10.16%	9.89%	8.46%	5.97%	4.44%	2.66%	1.55%	0.95%
Detroit Lions	3.84%	7.63%	10.37%	10.23%	10.91%	11.64%	10.49%	10.15%	8.88%	6.10%	4.46%	2.79%	1.58%	0.92%
New York Giants	4.13%	5.75%	8.57%	11.42%	11.42%	11.12%	11.57%	9.91%	8.33%	7.37%	4.71%	3.01%	1.89%	0.81%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.46%	5.63%	7.88%	10.85%	11.21%	10.99%	11.41%	10.07%	8.56%	7.39%	5.18%	3.40%	1.97%	1.00%
Atlanta Falcons	0.74%	2.27%	3.36%	4.91%	6.52%	8.34%	10.67%	13.31%	15.09%	12.00%	9.25%	7.12%	4.42%	2.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.80%	1.34%	2.62%	4.52%	5.74%	6.85%	9.73%	10.32%	11.12%	14.15%	11.73%	9.34%	7.42%	4.30%
Green Bay Packers	0.04%	0.24%	0.59%	0.97%	1.57%	2.41%	3.55%	5.08%	7.04%	10.51%	14.87%	15.91%	16.66%	20.55%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.06%	0.13%	0.36%	0.83%	1.31%	1.86%	3.39%	4.36%	6.36%	10.84%	12.61%	16.72%	21.75%	19.44%
Los Angeles Rams	0.03%	0.16%	0.30%	0.54%	0.88%	1.47%	2.40%	4.10%	6.40%	9.14%	14.52%	20.11%	21.34%	18.62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.09%	0.24%	0.39%	0.71%	1.20%	2.00%	3.07%	4.78%	7.64%	12.71%	16.02%	20.22%	30.91%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Washington Redskins	31.48%	21.13%	12.57%	9.26%	6.40%	4.63%	3.53%	2.58%	2.13%	1.46%	1.31%	0.88%	0.80%	0.48%	0.43%	0.29%	0.23%	0.15%	0.10%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	—
Buffalo Bills	26.52%	21.14%	12.69%	10.53%	6.86%	6.04%	3.68%	3.19%	2.20%	2.04%	1.23%	1.14%	0.72%	0.63%	0.40%	0.36%	0.20%	0.16%	0.08%	0.07%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	—
Houston Oilers	10.53%	11.79%	12.50%	11.70%	9.68%	9.17%	6.09%	5.78%	4.15%	3.91%	2.95%	2.56%	1.94%	1.87%	1.35%	1.00%	0.88%	0.68%	0.45%	0.41%	0.22%	0.15%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	6.60%	8.47%	10.33%	10.03%	8.55%	7.94%	6.86%	6.43%	5.78%	4.84%	4.44%	3.74%	3.20%	2.68%	2.33%	1.87%	1.53%	1.25%	0.99%	0.73%	0.50%	0.34%	0.25%	0.15%	0.08%	0.06%	0.02%	<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.21%	5.78%	7.69%	7.64%	7.74%	6.86%	7.51%	6.17%	6.73%	5.30%	5.69%	4.64%	4.34%	3.50%	3.43%	2.71%	2.49%	2.07%	1.56%	1.25%	0.92%	0.63%	0.44%	0.32%	0.20%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.72%	5.10%	6.65%	6.55%	7.54%	6.90%	7.21%	6.49%	6.22%	5.48%	5.33%	4.69%	4.40%	4.06%	3.65%	3.23%	2.74%	2.44%	1.93%	1.69%	1.16%	1.00%	0.68%	0.50%	0.27%	0.20%	0.12%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	3.03%	4.56%	5.87%	6.64%	6.66%	7.17%	6.71%	7.03%	5.71%	6.12%	5.30%	5.23%	4.61%	4.57%	3.69%	3.37%	3.01%	2.57%	2.25%	1.69%	1.25%	0.99%	0.72%	0.49%	0.36%	0.23%	0.11%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	2.48%	3.44%	5.20%	5.49%	7.00%	6.65%	6.87%	6.00%	6.74%	5.50%	6.29%	5.27%	5.44%	4.40%	4.73%	3.69%	3.45%	2.71%	2.25%	1.79%	1.49%	1.11%	0.75%	0.50%	0.34%	0.20%	0.15%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins	1.53%	2.71%	3.21%	3.85%	4.52%	5.31%	5.73%	7.03%	6.24%	8.06%	5.84%	6.71%	5.20%	5.99%	4.35%	5.08%	3.56%	3.74%	2.49%	2.37%	1.77%	1.50%	1.06%	0.75%	0.58%	0.38%	0.32%	0.12%
Minnesota Vikings	1.40%	2.36%	3.69%	4.50%	5.07%	5.63%	5.54%	5.66%	5.84%	5.68%	5.99%	5.72%	5.40%	5.11%	5.12%	4.65%	4.32%	3.91%	3.28%	2.67%	2.35%	1.75%	1.44%	0.99%	0.78%	0.55%	0.43%	0.19%
Detroit Lions	1.56%	2.32%	3.57%	4.15%	4.93%	5.35%	5.32%	5.37%	5.80%	5.72%	5.94%	5.71%	5.63%	5.14%	5.36%	4.67%	4.62%	3.89%	3.35%	2.83%	2.39%	1.88%	1.44%	1.08%	0.82%	0.55%	0.41%	0.23%
New York Giants	1.65%	2.31%	3.12%	3.58%	4.60%	4.84%	5.63%	5.81%	6.06%	5.66%	5.92%	5.77%	5.96%	5.17%	5.40%	4.71%	4.43%	3.77%	3.80%	2.88%	2.47%	1.76%	1.63%	1.08%	0.95%	0.50%	0.39%	0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.70%	2.50%	3.07%	3.40%	4.24%	4.44%	5.42%	5.55%	5.93%	5.62%	5.83%	5.67%	6.03%	5.12%	5.42%	4.65%	4.54%	3.82%	3.92%	3.04%	2.75%	2.02%	1.86%	1.20%	0.99%	0.61%	0.44%	0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	0.98%	1.79%	2.79%	3.47%	4.09%	4.58%	5.04%	5.20%	5.10%	5.56%	5.40%	5.58%	5.47%	5.78%	5.08%	5.33%	4.47%	4.83%	3.89%	4.05%	2.85%	2.57%	1.85%	1.54%	1.12%	0.82%	0.47%	0.29%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.26%	1.95%	2.73%	3.17%	3.80%	4.08%	4.96%	4.86%	5.01%	5.13%	5.53%	5.40%	5.51%	5.90%	5.19%	5.58%	4.66%	4.94%	4.05%	4.16%	2.88%	2.75%	1.90%	1.59%	1.21%	0.94%	0.51%	0.33%
New York Jets	0.53%	1.05%	1.32%	1.73%	2.24%	2.79%	3.45%	4.52%	4.44%	5.90%	4.99%	6.26%	5.30%	6.93%	5.68%	7.21%	5.41%	6.21%	4.35%	4.67%	3.47%	3.32%	2.35%	1.99%	1.49%	1.08%	0.81%	0.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.27%	0.46%	0.86%	1.18%	1.60%	2.04%	2.59%	3.12%	3.63%	4.62%	4.77%	6.08%	5.20%	6.74%	5.29%	6.73%	5.95%	6.58%	5.17%	5.95%	4.43%	4.29%	3.35%	3.05%	2.28%	1.86%	1.14%	0.78%
Atlanta Falcons	0.21%	0.47%	0.92%	1.25%	1.69%	1.92%	2.58%	2.69%	3.62%	3.47%	4.48%	4.47%	5.63%	5.33%	6.91%	6.33%	7.22%	6.87%	6.22%	5.55%	5.03%	4.30%	3.81%	3.06%	2.31%	1.77%	1.17%	0.69%
Dallas Cowboys	0.24%	0.43%	0.63%	0.92%	1.34%	1.52%	2.24%	2.50%	3.15%	3.08%	3.88%	3.95%	5.18%	4.59%	5.85%	5.31%	6.21%	5.59%	7.34%	5.91%	6.22%	5.08%	4.96%	4.08%	3.78%	2.67%	2.10%	1.25%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.04%	0.11%	0.27%	0.41%	0.58%	0.84%	1.11%	1.44%	1.91%	2.33%	2.60%	3.46%	3.57%	4.48%	4.37%	5.39%	5.72%	6.69%	6.07%	7.56%	6.40%	6.76%	5.86%	6.04%	4.89%	4.91%	3.47%	2.69%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.01%	0.09%	0.13%	0.22%	0.33%	0.45%	0.54%	0.78%	0.84%	1.27%	1.33%	1.93%	1.91%	2.76%	2.85%	3.90%	3.92%	5.74%	5.57%	7.49%	7.38%	8.42%	7.68%	8.92%	7.78%	9.77%	7.98%
Phoenix Cardinals	<0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.14%	0.22%	0.33%	0.45%	0.61%	0.74%	0.97%	1.06%	1.78%	1.74%	2.56%	2.55%	3.64%	3.64%	5.95%	5.54%	6.96%	7.13%	8.68%	8.44%	10.45%	9.26%	9.50%	7.52%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.12%	0.17%	0.23%	0.35%	0.45%	0.57%	0.72%	1.00%	1.05%	1.55%	1.60%	2.26%	2.31%	3.40%	3.58%	4.80%	5.16%	6.16%	7.13%	7.91%	9.22%	9.23%	11.01%	9.67%	10.28%
Los Angeles Rams	<0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.13%	0.15%	0.24%	0.30%	0.39%	0.50%	0.79%	0.80%	1.27%	1.34%	2.18%	2.21%	3.26%	3.59%	4.82%	5.05%	7.25%	7.34%	9.50%	9.37%	10.15%	10.22%	9.69%	9.30%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.10%	0.17%	0.24%	0.38%	0.56%	0.69%	0.95%	1.17%	1.51%	1.66%	2.37%	2.83%	3.65%	3.86%	5.66%	5.67%	7.58%	7.35%	10.03%	9.39%	12.11%	10.38%	11.54%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.15%	0.22%	0.34%	0.46%	0.55%	0.72%	0.99%	1.36%	1.63%	2.19%	2.57%	3.35%	3.90%	5.20%	6.18%	7.76%	7.95%	9.37%	9.40%	10.50%	11.47%	13.54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.08%	0.12%	0.15%	0.22%	0.36%	0.39%	0.61%	0.63%	1.05%	1.09%	1.63%	1.71%	2.63%	2.81%	4.25%	4.26%	6.39%	6.53%	8.32%	8.32%	10.73%	10.34%	14.17%	13.11%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.15%	0.20%	0.32%	0.41%	0.54%	0.71%	0.98%	1.28%	1.66%	2.12%	2.59%	3.13%	4.24%	5.24%	6.89%	7.38%	9.08%	9.25%	11.34%	13.18%	19.09%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	47.90%	22.77%	11.15%	8.31%	4.75%	2.39%	2.74%
Houston Oilers	21.50%	27.76%	35.54%	2.34%	2.82%	3.08%	6.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.03%	13.74%	12.80%	14.78%	11.93%	10.09%	27.63%
Denver Broncos	7.54%	12.84%	10.96%	15.01%	12.62%	10.90%	30.10%
Miami Dolphins	4.66%	4.49%	3.15%	19.12%	17.84%	13.04%	37.70%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.52%	6.04%	5.90%	10.60%	10.53%	11.51%	51.90%
Seattle Seahawks	2.86%	6.60%	7.39%	10.81%	10.96%	11.60%	49.79%
New York Jets	1.84%	2.10%	1.72%	10.33%	12.38%	11.84%	59.79%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.85%	2.34%	6.75%	4.71%	8.00%	11.99%	65.36%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.20%	0.88%	3.28%	2.10%	4.18%	6.85%	82.51%
San Diego Chargers	0.04%	0.26%	0.47%	0.84%	1.33%	2.16%	94.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.11%	0.76%	0.34%	0.99%	1.95%	95.83%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.44%	0.98%	1.51%	96.93%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.28%	0.70%	1.10%	97.84%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	52.95%	19.54%	6.93%	10.24%	4.57%	2.54%	3.23%
New Orleans Saints	14.10%	23.32%	15.69%	11.76%	10.93%	7.89%	16.31%
San Francisco 49ers	9.37%	17.07%	12.68%	13.19%	12.96%	10.16%	24.58%
Chicago Bears	5.86%	11.82%	22.23%	6.30%	9.29%	10.68%	33.81%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.46%	3.20%	1.71%	16.55%	13.04%	11.82%	49.22%
New York Giants	4.13%	3.15%	1.49%	17.80%	13.54%	12.05%	47.83%
Detroit Lions	3.84%	8.60%	16.10%	5.91%	9.29%	11.00%	45.26%
Minnesota Vikings	3.61%	9.11%	16.29%	6.35%	9.58%	11.16%	43.91%
Dallas Cowboys	0.80%	0.84%	0.54%	5.81%	6.26%	7.43%	78.33%
Atlanta Falcons	0.74%	2.65%	3.63%	4.10%	6.50%	8.46%	73.93%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.06%	0.10%	0.10%	0.91%	1.37%	1.94%	95.51%
Green Bay Packers	0.04%	0.29%	1.47%	0.49%	1.29%	2.29%	94.12%
Los Angeles Rams	0.03%	0.21%	0.53%	0.38%	0.82%	1.42%	96.62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.11%	0.62%	0.21%	0.56%	1.15%	97.34%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	90.59%	90.59%	66.00%	45.14%	29.95%
Buffalo Bills	89.90%	89.90%	62.06%	39.31%	17.35%
San Francisco 49ers	60.30%	60.30%	37.23%	19.45%	12.41%
Houston Oilers	79.52%	79.52%	42.88%	20.35%	7.53%
New Orleans Saints	63.74%	63.74%	31.55%	12.49%	6.65%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.12%	55.12%	29.13%	14.44%	5.82%
Denver Broncos	52.43%	52.43%	27.72%	13.68%	5.61%
Detroit Lions	42.30%	37.51%	16.97%	6.91%	3.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	43.12%	28.89%	11.09%	4.40%	2.28%
Chicago Bears	48.51%	41.57%	15.05%	4.90%	2.24%
Los Angeles Raiders	38.54%	27.33%	9.97%	3.51%	1.01%
New York Giants	44.89%	24.65%	7.24%	2.33%	1.00%
Dallas Cowboys	20.04%	11.57%	4.50%	1.78%	0.94%
Atlanta Falcons	22.69%	13.47%	5.00%	1.66%	0.80%
Miami Dolphins	53.15%	28.63%	8.39%	2.66%	0.68%
Seattle Seahawks	40.75%	25.70%	8.04%	2.46%	0.64%
New York Jets	36.27%	17.59%	5.36%	1.75%	0.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.45%	14.54%	4.40%	1.35%	0.37%
Minnesota Vikings	43.36%	24.16%	4.89%	0.87%	0.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	16.40%	5.77%	1.37%	0.35%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	4.80%	1.69%	0.42%	0.08%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	5.54%	1.67%	0.28%	0.05%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.04%	1.00%	0.17%	0.04%	0.01%
New England Patriots	3.00%	0.56%	0.08%	0.02%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	3.14%	0.68%	0.08%	0.01%	<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	2.12%	0.20%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Phoenix Cardinals	4.32%	0.70%	0.08%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.54%	0.51%	0.05%	<0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.28%	1.03%	2.42%	0.65%	0.19%	2.26%	2.44%	2.53%	0.26%	2.15%	1.99%	0.38%	2.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%		0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	<0.01%	0.09%	0.10%	0.15%	<0.01%	0.08%	0.05%	0.02%	0.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.17%	0.04%		0.44%	0.76%	0.04%	0.46%	0.52%	0.73%	0.06%	0.45%	0.24%	0.08%	0.69%
Denver Broncos	1.62%	0.46%	1.73%		2.21%	0.32%	3.08%	3.25%	7.15%	0.40%	4.40%	3.20%	0.43%	3.81%
Houston Oilers	0.48%	0.76%	2.76%	2.53%		0.40%	2.42%	3.44%	4.21%	0.51%	3.66%	4.64%	0.69%	3.79%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.56%	0.46%	1.84%	3.09%	2.14%	0.36%		3.23%	7.17%	0.43%	4.49%	3.31%	0.50%	3.78%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.90%	0.24%	0.99%	1.67%	1.53%	0.18%	1.57%		4.02%	0.26%	2.41%	1.80%	0.24%	1.96%
Miami Dolphins	0.61%	0.28%	1.15%	2.68%	1.44%	0.09%	2.73%	3.00%		0.11%	1.49%	1.83%	0.39%	3.68%
New England Patriots	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.07%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.10%
New York Jets	0.62%	0.22%	0.65%	1.79%	1.34%	0.06%	1.78%	1.90%	1.59%	0.06%		1.19%	0.27%	2.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.52%	0.11%	0.36%	1.12%	1.80%	0.09%	1.17%	1.26%	1.90%	0.12%	1.18%		0.18%	1.57%
San Diego Chargers	0.06%	0.03%	0.09%	0.11%	0.15%	0.02%	0.12%	0.09%	0.28%	0.02%	0.14%	0.12%		0.15%
Seattle Seahawks	0.76%	0.27%	1.08%	1.46%	1.27%	0.21%	1.50%	1.48%	3.88%	0.28%	2.16%	1.67%	0.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.37%	0.46%	0.98%	0.19%	0.09%	1.69%	1.13%	1.59%	1.19%	0.17%	0.71%	0.12%	0.39%
Chicago Bears	1.69%		1.32%	2.93%	0.67%	0.39%	5.25%	1.97%	3.53%	2.83%	0.66%	1.68%	0.37%	0.61%
Dallas Cowboys	0.55%	1.52%		1.00%	0.18%	0.16%	1.85%	1.47%	0.90%	0.72%	0.07%	1.06%	0.10%	0.34%
Detroit Lions	1.59%	4.37%	1.32%		0.53%	0.29%	4.65%	2.23%	3.65%	3.00%	0.53%	1.84%	0.25%	0.82%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.23%	0.06%	0.11%		0.04%	0.28%	0.13%	0.16%	0.10%	0.05%	0.07%	0.02%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%		0.10%	0.04%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.83%	2.17%	0.67%	1.17%	0.38%	0.23%		0.97%	1.95%	1.49%	0.36%	0.68%	0.22%	0.30%
New Orleans Saints	1.74%	3.00%	1.77%	2.19%	0.56%	0.38%	3.59%		4.84%	3.95%	0.68%	2.39%	0.27%	0.98%
New York Giants	1.29%	2.59%	0.57%	1.74%	0.40%	0.29%	3.49%	2.47%		1.71%	0.16%	2.02%	0.18%	0.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.52%	3.12%	0.68%	2.15%	0.36%	0.29%	3.96%	3.14%	2.67%		0.19%	2.34%	0.19%	0.61%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.03%	0.09%	<0.01%	0.06%	0.02%	0.02%	0.12%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%		0.04%	0.01%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	1.87%	3.97%	2.24%	3.03%	0.58%	0.30%	4.38%	3.96%	6.06%	5.00%	0.64%		0.27%	1.57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.09%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	1.39%	2.09%	0.95%	1.81%	0.30%	0.22%	2.48%	2.38%	2.02%	1.80%	0.26%	2.26%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.32%	1.69%	9.46%	9.20%	0.07%	9.74%	6.30%	9.09%	0.21%	5.55%	3.73%	0.56%	6.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%			0.02%	0.04%		0.02%	<0.01%	0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.34%	<0.01%		0.16%	0.26%	<0.01%	0.16%	0.13%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.15%
Denver Broncos	6.13%	0.10%	0.56%		8.66%	0.03%	3.70%	1.91%	2.18%	0.03%	1.21%	1.33%	0.08%	1.79%
Houston Oilers	5.89%	0.15%	0.83%	7.82%		0.04%	8.12%	4.94%	4.33%	0.12%	2.71%	2.08%	0.39%	5.46%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	0.01%		<0.01%					<0.01%		<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.20%	0.14%	0.60%	3.67%	8.79%	0.02%		2.19%	2.33%	0.06%	1.41%	1.52%	0.10%	2.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.14%	0.03%	0.26%	0.96%	2.95%	<0.01%	1.20%		0.80%	0.02%	0.44%	0.51%	0.02%	0.64%
Miami Dolphins	2.57%	0.03%	0.15%	0.85%	1.85%	<0.01%	0.88%	0.67%		<0.01%	0.32%	0.38%	0.05%	0.63%
New England Patriots	0.02%		<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
New York Jets	1.63%	0.01%	0.07%	0.47%	1.28%	<0.01%	0.62%	0.36%	0.35%	<0.01%		0.19%	0.01%	0.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.04%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.50%	0.91%	<0.01%	0.62%	0.36%	0.36%	<0.01%	0.18%		0.02%	0.38%
San Diego Chargers	0.10%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.16%		0.03%	0.02%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	1.73%	0.04%	0.21%	0.78%	2.51%	<0.01%	0.89%	0.48%	0.66%	0.02%	0.34%	0.36%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.87%	0.08%	0.53%	0.04%	<0.01%	0.63%	0.75%	0.28%	0.27%	<0.01%	0.45%	0.02%	1.06%
Chicago Bears	0.82%		0.43%	1.01%	0.04%	0.08%	1.17%	4.12%	1.16%	1.11%	0.05%	2.51%	0.02%	2.54%
Dallas Cowboys	0.08%	0.53%		0.28%	0.02%	<0.01%	0.45%	0.85%	0.18%	0.21%	<0.01%	0.50%	0.01%	1.38%
Detroit Lions	0.85%	1.53%	0.34%		0.03%	0.07%	1.16%	4.59%	1.25%	1.14%	0.06%	2.79%	<0.01%	3.16%
Green Bay Packers	<0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%		0.07%
Los Angeles Rams	<0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.28%	0.55%	0.14%	0.32%	0.02%	0.03%		1.30%	0.41%	0.37%	0.03%	0.76%	<0.01%	0.67%
New Orleans Saints	1.22%	6.08%	0.97%	4.54%	0.34%	0.07%	4.39%		2.48%	2.47%	0.08%	4.93%	0.11%	3.86%
New York Giants	0.25%	0.86%	0.12%	0.62%	0.03%	0.02%	0.74%	1.30%		0.40%	0.03%	0.75%	0.02%	2.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.36%	1.29%	0.19%	0.88%	0.04%	0.04%	1.06%	1.89%	0.63%		0.02%	1.18%	0.02%	3.50%
Phoenix Cardinals	<0.01%	0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	1.06%	6.35%	1.00%	4.71%	0.28%	0.07%	4.55%	7.97%	2.39%	2.48%	0.08%		0.08%	6.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%			<0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	3.53%	8.40%	3.81%	7.62%	0.55%	0.19%	5.09%	9.29%	8.60%	9.33%	0.27%	9.14%	0.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.05%	0.45%	7.49%	13.43%	<0.01%	7.76%	3.04%	1.77%	0.03%	1.14%	1.34%	0.15%	2.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.11%			0.06%	0.05%		0.04%	0.02%	0.03%		0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	5.09%	0.02%	0.14%		3.06%	<0.01%	1.95%	0.78%	0.94%	<0.01%	0.60%	0.44%	0.04%	0.61%
Houston Oilers	8.82%	0.02%	0.15%	2.97%		<0.01%	3.27%	1.27%	1.45%	0.02%	0.81%	0.44%	0.06%	1.06%
Indianapolis Colts					<0.01%		<0.01%							<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.34%	0.02%	0.15%	1.88%	3.36%	<0.01%		0.82%	0.99%	0.01%	0.62%	0.46%	0.05%	0.72%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.17%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.43%	0.74%	<0.01%	0.48%		0.22%	<0.01%	0.16%	0.10%	<0.01%	0.16%
Miami Dolphins	0.60%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.43%	0.67%		0.40%	0.18%			0.08%	0.11%	<0.01%	0.16%
New England Patriots	<0.01%			<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
New York Jets	0.39%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.26%	0.43%		0.28%	0.12%	0.07%			0.07%	<0.01%	0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.41%		0.01%	0.18%	0.26%	<0.01%	0.18%	0.09%	0.08%	<0.01%	0.06%		<0.01%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%		<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%		0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.80%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.33%	0.52%		0.30%	0.12%	0.17%	<0.01%	0.11%	0.08%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.15%	0.05%	0.13%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.23%	0.13%	0.15%	<0.01%	0.21%	<0.01%	0.56%
Chicago Bears	0.16%		0.18%	0.33%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.12%	0.77%	0.30%	0.43%	<0.01%	0.75%	<0.01%	1.85%
Dallas Cowboys	0.07%	0.18%		0.17%	<0.01%		0.08%	0.35%	0.06%	0.10%		0.35%	<0.01%	0.42%
Detroit Lions	0.21%	0.46%	0.20%		0.01%	<0.01%	0.18%	1.06%	0.42%	0.58%	0.01%	1.21%	<0.01%	2.57%
Green Bay Packers	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%		0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	<0.01%			<0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%				<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.07%	0.04%	0.05%	<0.01%			0.11%	0.08%	0.08%		0.13%	<0.01%	0.27%
New Orleans Saints	0.31%	1.16%	0.39%	1.16%	0.03%	<0.01%	0.39%		0.84%	1.03%	0.02%	1.88%	<0.01%	5.29%
New York Giants	0.09%	0.25%	0.05%	0.27%	<0.01%		0.11%	0.49%		0.13%	<0.01%	0.40%	<0.01%	0.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.19%	0.49%	0.10%	0.49%	0.01%	<0.01%	0.20%	0.88%	0.16%			0.81%	<0.01%	1.06%
Phoenix Cardinals		<0.01%						<0.01%				<0.01%		<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.48%	1.81%	0.63%	1.87%	0.04%	0.01%	0.65%	2.93%	1.10%	1.62%	0.01%		<0.01%	8.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers								<0.01%	<0.01%					<0.01%
Washington Redskins	1.79%	5.58%	1.09%	5.59%	0.11%	0.04%	2.24%	12.21%	1.84%	2.57%	0.02%	12.04%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.28%			<0.01%		0.10%			0.18%		0.12%	0.02%		0.03%		<0.01%			0.02%			0.02%	<0.01%		0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.38%		1.09%			0.38%		1.32%	0.02%					<0.01%		0.27%		2.59%	0.55%		0.94%	<0.01%			3.07%		<0.01%	6.73%
Chicago Bears		0.76%			0.01%		0.30%			0.50%		0.32%	0.10%		0.08%					0.05%			0.05%	<0.01%		0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals								<0.01%													<0.01%				<0.01%			<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	<0.01%		<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%										<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%				<0.01%			0.03%
Dallas Cowboys		0.34%			<0.01%		0.13%			0.21%		0.14%	0.03%		0.04%					<0.01%			0.01%			0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.11%		0.36%			0.11%		0.44%	<0.01%					<0.01%		0.08%		0.78%	0.18%		0.31%				1.07%		<0.01%	2.14%
Detroit Lions		1.38%		<0.01%	0.02%		0.53%			0.78%	<0.01%	0.54%	0.18%		0.12%		<0.01%			0.07%			0.06%	<0.01%		0.12%
Green Bay Packers		<0.01%					<0.01%			<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%													<0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.17%		0.56%			0.17%		0.61%	<0.01%					<0.01%		0.11%		1.13%	0.27%		0.38%	<0.01%			1.31%			2.82%
Indianapolis Colts																												<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.13%		0.40%			0.12%		0.44%	<0.01%							0.07%		0.86%	0.21%		0.29%				1.01%			2.29%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.02%		0.06%			0.02%		0.09%	<0.01%							0.02%		0.14%	0.04%		0.06%				0.17%			0.38%
Los Angeles Rams		<0.01%											<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%		0.05%			0.01%		0.06%	<0.01%							0.01%		0.10%	0.03%		0.04%				0.13%			0.24%
Minnesota Vikings		0.10%					0.03%			0.04%		0.04%	0.01%		0.01%					<0.01%			<0.01%			<0.01%
New England Patriots																		<0.01%
New Orleans Saints		2.39%		<0.01%	0.04%		0.89%			1.45%		0.87%	0.30%		0.22%		<0.01%			0.17%			0.11%	0.01%		0.20%
New York Giants		0.33%			<0.01%		0.13%			0.22%		0.17%	0.05%		0.04%					0.03%			0.02%			0.02%
New York Jets	0.01%		0.04%			0.01%		0.03%	<0.01%							0.02%		0.07%	0.01%		0.03%				0.09%			0.18%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.79%			<0.01%		0.29%			0.51%		0.35%	0.11%		0.06%					0.06%			0.03%			0.08%
Phoenix Cardinals		<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	<0.01%		0.03%			<0.01%		0.02%	<0.01%							0.01%		0.06%	0.01%		0.02%				0.08%			0.13%
San Diego Chargers			<0.01%					<0.01%								<0.01%		<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%				<0.01%			<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		4.58%		<0.01%	0.06%		1.65%			2.59%	<0.01%	1.79%	0.48%		0.42%		<0.01%			0.25%			0.21%	0.01%		0.35%
Seattle Seahawks	0.02%		0.05%			0.01%		0.06%						<0.01%		<0.01%		0.09%	0.02%		0.04%				0.10%			0.24%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers												<0.01%
Washington Redskins		11.02%		0.02%	0.14%		4.01%			6.33%		4.27%	1.21%		0.96%		<0.01%			0.60%			0.46%	0.03%		0.92%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Washington Redskins	100.00%	76.37%	55.35%	35.01%	Won Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	68.83%	44.31%	19.43%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	59.95%	25.56%	10.18%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Detroit Lions	100.00%	58.73%	20.10%	10.17%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	72.99%	27.92%	12.73%	5.61%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints	66.46%	28.02%	10.21%	5.40%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	74.27%	29.65%	12.80%	5.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	48.93%	15.86%	6.58%	3.56%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	51.07%	13.26%	4.59%	2.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	33.54%	7.75%	3.17%	1.63%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Raiders	27.01%	7.56%	2.67%	0.96%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	25.73%	6.10%	1.92%	0.60%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	New York Jets
Houston Oilers				74.27%
Kansas City Chiefs			72.99%
Los Angeles Raiders		27.01%
New York Jets	25.73%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons				33.54%
Chicago Bears			51.07%
Dallas Cowboys		48.93%
New Orleans Saints	66.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills				34.40%	14.80%	19.63%
Denver Broncos			44.62%	10.66%	4.66%
Houston Oilers		29.65%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.77%	8.15%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.30%	2.25%
New York Jets	6.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons						7.75%
Chicago Bears				6.04%		7.22%
Dallas Cowboys				7.20%		8.66%
Detroit Lions		10.89%	9.40%		38.44%
New Orleans Saints				28.02%
Washington Redskins	25.79%	26.91%	23.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills		26.71%	12.67%	3.72%	1.21%
Denver Broncos	14.56%			6.53%	2.03%	2.44%
Houston Oilers	7.00%			4.36%	1.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.45%	5.44%	3.44%			1.40%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.50%	1.10%	0.74%			0.33%
New York Jets		1.13%		0.58%	0.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.63%	0.65%	1.88%
Chicago Bears	0.76%			1.59%	1.10%	1.14%
Dallas Cowboys	1.06%			2.34%	1.56%	1.61%
Detroit Lions	2.77%	2.57%	2.72%			12.05%
New Orleans Saints		1.95%	2.03%			6.22%
Washington Redskins		3.51%	3.88%	32.81%	15.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	New Orleans Saints	New York Jets	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.66%			0.45%		0.22%	0.20%	0.07%		0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.72%		1.06%	1.40%		4.64%				2.23%		9.39%
Chicago Bears		0.99%			0.59%		0.28%	0.28%	0.06%		0.04%
Dallas Cowboys		1.52%			0.95%		0.46%	0.46%	0.10%		0.08%
Denver Broncos	0.36%		0.59%	0.74%		2.40%				1.13%		4.96%
Detroit Lions		4.34%			2.76%		1.31%	1.24%	0.29%		0.22%
Houston Oilers	0.20%		0.27%	0.38%		1.27%				0.59%		2.49%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.20%		0.34%	0.39%		1.28%				0.65%		2.75%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.04%		0.06%	0.06%		0.21%				0.12%		0.47%
New Orleans Saints		2.27%			1.47%		0.70%	0.67%	0.16%		0.13%
New York Jets	0.03%		0.03%	0.05%		0.13%				0.08%		0.29%
Washington Redskins		15.11%			9.17%		4.61%	4.28%	1.03%		0.80%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Washington Redskins 35.01% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

35.24%

Win Prob

78.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

59.27%

Win Prob

73.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

43.16%

Win Prob

61.68%

Buffalo Bills 19.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

49.98%

Win Prob

63.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

60.28%

Win Prob

64.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

48.31%

Win Prob

38.32%

Denver Broncos 10.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

74.44%

Win Prob

60.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

56.96%

Win Prob

35.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

48.71%

Win Prob

35.08%

Detroit Lions 10.17% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

65.45%

Win Prob

57.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

59.94%

Win Prob

26.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

42.67%

Win Prob

48.33%

Kansas City Chiefs 5.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.99%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

70.82%

Win Prob

36.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

42.73%

Win Prob

45.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

48.97%

Win Prob

39.10%

New Orleans Saints 5.40% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.46%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

60.95%

Win Prob

29.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

42.06%

Win Prob

50.44%

Houston Oilers 5.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

54.72%

Win Prob

35.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

47.81%

Win Prob

35.03%

Dallas Cowboys 3.56% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

54.58%

Win Prob

26.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

35.63%

Win Prob

46.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

42.57%

Win Prob

52.03%

Chicago Bears 2.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

54.43%

Win Prob

21.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

34.69%

Win Prob

38.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

44.23%

Win Prob

48.37%

Atlanta Falcons 1.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.54%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

59.50%

Win Prob

40.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.34%

Win Prob

47.85%

Los Angeles Raiders 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.01%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

70.17%

Win Prob

26.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

41.15%

Win Prob

35.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

48.60%

Win Prob

31.20%

New York Jets 0.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

58.98%

Win Prob

31.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

48.34%

Win Prob

26.67%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1991-09-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-14	1463.98	1554.49	29.19%	70.60%	-20.22	0-1
1991-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 19-20	1443.76	1487.36	52.62%	47.13%	-10.98	0-2
1991-09-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1432.78	1445.14	39.25%	60.51%	+21.87	1-2
1991-09-22	Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-17	1454.65	1534.35	47.43%	52.32%	+21.84	2-2
1991-09-29	New Orleans Saints	L 6-27	1476.49	1616.00	39.01%	60.75%	-37.33	2-3
1991-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 39-34	1439.16	1573.05	24.31%	75.49%	+35.20	3-3
1991-10-20	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-16	1474.36	1413.27	49.64%	50.11%	-25.38	3-4
1991-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1448.98	1445.24	59.32%	40.43%	+34.81	4-4
1991-11-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-14	1483.79	1630.88	37.98%	61.78%	+22.33	5-4
1991-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-56	1506.12	1764.19	13.60%	86.27%	-17.72	5-5
1991-11-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 43-7	1488.40	1333.00	77.71%	22.11%	+27.70	6-5
1991-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1516.10	1662.96	22.97%	76.85%	+27.75	7-5
1991-12-01	Green Bay Packers	W 35-31	1543.85	1361.90	80.24%	19.60%	+8.19	8-5
1991-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1552.04	1324.98	71.91%	27.88%	+24.00	9-5
1991-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 26-13	1576.04	1480.52	71.19%	28.60%	+21.54	10-5
1991-12-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-31	1597.58	1611.77	39.00%	60.76%	-16.29	10-6
1991-09-01	Miami Dolphins	W 35-31	1604.65	1546.30	66.62%	33.15%	+13.85	1-0
1991-09-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 52-34	1618.50	1535.55	69.69%	30.09%	+26.66	2-0
1991-09-15	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1645.16	1439.40	69.37%	30.41%	+11.00	3-0
1991-09-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1656.16	1404.11	74.71%	25.09%	+13.86	4-0
1991-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 35-20	1670.02	1572.69	71.41%	28.38%	+22.96	5-0
1991-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-33	1692.98	1547.83	61.52%	38.24%	-66.69	5-1
1991-10-13	Indianapolis Colts	W 42-6	1626.29	1302.86	90.15%	9.75%	+12.20	6-1
1991-10-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-16	1638.49	1358.05	87.73%	12.16%	+11.06	7-1
1991-11-03	New England Patriots	W 22-17	1649.55	1331.15	89.89%	10.01%	+4.67	8-1
1991-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1654.22	1399.18	75.04%	24.77%	+16.35	9-1
1991-11-18	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-27	1670.57	1492.10	65.94%	33.83%	+26.44	10-1
1991-11-24	@ New England Patriots	L 13-16	1697.01	1292.82	87.62%	12.26%	-31.64	10-2
1991-12-01	New York Jets	W 24-13	1665.37	1537.28	74.87%	24.93%	+17.27	11-2
1991-12-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 30-27	1682.64	1612.40	50.96%	48.79%	+17.64	12-2
1991-12-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-7	1700.28	1196.84	92.60%	7.32%	+8.08	13-2
1991-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1708.36	1624.55	69.79%	29.99%	-25.22	13-3
1991-09-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-6	1518.92	1503.58	60.92%	38.84%	+16.22	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-20	1535.14	1426.42	56.46%	43.30%	+9.04	2-0
1991-09-15	New York Giants	W 20-17	1544.18	1566.71	55.63%	44.12%	+15.95	3-0
1991-09-23	New York Jets	W 19-13	1560.13	1428.40	75.26%	24.54%	+12.56	4-0
1991-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-35	1572.69	1670.02	28.38%	71.41%	-22.96	4-1
1991-10-06	Washington Redskins	L 7-20	1549.73	1699.04	37.68%	62.08%	-28.37	4-2
1991-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-0	1521.36	1366.85	62.79%	36.98%	+24.42	5-2
1991-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1545.78	1686.99	23.55%	76.26%	+27.55	6-2
1991-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 20-10	1573.33	1548.69	62.19%	37.58%	+24.81	7-2
1991-11-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-17	1598.14	1540.68	49.12%	50.63%	+43.57	8-2
1991-11-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1641.71	1272.31	85.29%	14.58%	+11.38	9-2
1991-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1653.09	1465.66	80.73%	19.10%	-29.15	9-3
1991-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-16	1623.94	1556.94	50.49%	49.26%	-33.33	9-4
1991-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1590.61	1353.72	84.77%	15.09%	+11.79	10-4
1991-12-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-0	1602.40	1266.05	90.79%	9.12%	+9.88	11-4
1991-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-52	1612.28	1695.68	30.04%	69.74%	-38.67	11-5
1991-09-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-45	1518.07	1478.13	46.60%	53.15%	-54.16	0-1
1991-09-08	Houston Oilers	L 7-30	1463.91	1574.15	43.08%	56.67%	-43.14	0-2
1991-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-14	1420.77	1421.57	40.84%	58.91%	-8.53	0-3
1991-09-22	Washington Redskins	L 27-34	1412.24	1652.50	26.38%	73.41%	-14.57	0-4
1991-10-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-13	1397.67	1510.43	42.73%	57.03%	-21.86	0-5
1991-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-35	1375.81	1507.40	24.56%	75.25%	-17.76	0-6
1991-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-35	1358.05	1638.49	12.16%	87.73%	-11.05	0-7
1991-10-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-35	1347.00	1672.82	9.63%	90.27%	-11.37	0-8
1991-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-21	1335.63	1440.70	43.81%	55.94%	+16.51	1-8
1991-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-33	1352.14	1429.15	47.82%	51.93%	-24.45	1-9
1991-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1327.69	1550.73	16.14%	83.71%	-8.92	1-10
1991-11-24	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-38	1318.77	1578.49	24.27%	75.54%	-24.82	1-11
1991-12-01	New York Giants	W 27-24	1293.95	1572.59	22.33%	77.49%	+27.98	2-11
1991-12-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-37	1321.93	1510.95	18.96%	80.87%	-19.39	2-12
1991-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1302.54	1437.15	24.24%	75.57%	-13.39	2-13
1991-12-22	New England Patriots	W 29-7	1289.15	1355.34	49.37%	50.37%	+49.32	3-13
1991-09-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-26	1396.86	1455.75	50.42%	49.32%	-36.46	0-1
1991-09-08	@ New England Patriots	W 20-0	1360.40	1410.59	34.20%	65.57%	+61.17	1-1
1991-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-13	1421.57	1420.77	58.91%	40.84%	+8.53	2-1
1991-09-22	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1430.10	1550.76	25.74%	74.06%	-9.31	2-2
1991-10-06	New York Jets	L 14-17	1420.79	1467.59	52.16%	47.59%	-18.85	2-3
1991-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-42	1401.94	1727.41	9.65%	90.25%	-10.07	2-4
1991-10-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1391.87	1422.64	36.75%	63.01%	+32.20	3-4
1991-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1424.07	1459.66	53.77%	45.98%	+16.63	4-4
1991-11-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-23	1440.70	1335.63	55.94%	43.81%	-16.51	4-5
1991-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-32	1424.19	1538.16	42.55%	57.20%	-12.57	4-6
1991-11-17	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-28	1411.62	1680.27	12.90%	86.98%	-5.38	4-7
1991-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-15	1406.24	1623.94	28.98%	70.81%	+33.02	5-7
1991-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-0	1439.26	1248.65	67.49%	32.28%	+37.54	6-7
1991-12-08	Denver Broncos	L 7-17	1476.80	1590.75	42.56%	57.20%	-28.10	6-8
1991-12-15	Houston Oilers	L 14-17	1448.70	1621.26	34.59%	65.17%	-12.51	6-9
1991-12-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1436.19	1450.54	38.97%	60.79%	-21.53	6-10
1991-09-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-14	1455.75	1396.86	49.32%	50.42%	+36.46	1-0
1991-09-09	Washington Redskins	L 31-33	1492.21	1601.89	43.16%	56.59%	-12.74	1-1
1991-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-24	1479.47	1524.01	52.49%	47.26%	-53.67	1-2
1991-09-22	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 17-9	1425.80	1502.01	30.92%	68.86%	+40.63	2-2
1991-09-29	New York Giants	W 21-16	1466.43	1560.07	45.44%	54.31%	+25.34	3-2
1991-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1491.77	1382.48	56.54%	43.21%	+15.63	4-2
1991-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-23	1507.40	1375.81	75.25%	24.56%	+17.77	5-2
1991-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-34	1525.17	1503.72	43.97%	55.78%	-44.97	5-3
1991-11-03	Phoenix Cardinals	W 27-7	1480.20	1378.21	71.95%	27.84%	+26.00	6-3
1991-11-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-26	1506.20	1672.66	21.04%	78.79%	-7.61	6-4
1991-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 9-22	1498.59	1531.34	36.49%	63.28%	-27.47	6-5
1991-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1471.12	1801.19	9.42%	90.48%	+32.66	7-5
1991-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1503.78	1488.24	60.95%	38.81%	+25.62	8-5
1991-12-08	New Orleans Saints	W 23-14	1529.40	1601.93	48.46%	51.29%	+32.12	9-5
1991-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 25-13	1561.52	1643.33	30.23%	69.55%	+50.25	10-5
1991-12-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-27	1611.77	1597.58	60.76%	39.00%	+16.28	11-5
1991-09-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 45-14	1478.13	1518.07	53.15%	46.60%	+54.17	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-16	1532.30	1493.75	46.40%	53.34%	-16.78	1-1
1991-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 16-10	1515.52	1524.99	57.48%	42.28%	+21.62	2-1
1991-09-22	San Diego Chargers	W 27-19	1537.14	1423.28	73.31%	26.49%	+15.65	3-1
1991-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-6	1552.79	1483.68	50.79%	48.95%	+27.04	4-1
1991-10-06	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-42	1579.83	1604.10	37.63%	62.14%	-41.58	4-2
1991-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-16	1538.25	1648.90	43.02%	56.73%	+20.50	5-2
1991-10-27	@ New England Patriots	W 9-6	1558.75	1341.66	70.74%	29.05%	+10.51	6-2
1991-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-13	1569.26	1443.03	74.67%	25.13%	+13.89	7-2
1991-11-10	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-17	1583.15	1519.66	67.28%	32.50%	-14.04	7-3
1991-11-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-20	1569.11	1653.07	29.97%	69.81%	+29.12	8-3
1991-11-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1598.23	1509.18	53.66%	46.09%	-19.39	8-4
1991-12-01	New England Patriots	W 20-3	1578.84	1324.45	86.02%	13.85%	+11.91	9-4
1991-12-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1590.75	1476.80	57.20%	42.56%	+28.10	10-4
1991-12-15	Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-19	1618.85	1296.78	90.08%	9.82%	+4.58	11-4
1991-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1623.43	1422.08	68.83%	30.95%	+11.20	12-4
1991-09-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-45	1484.36	1558.17	31.21%	68.57%	-43.72	0-1
1991-09-08	Green Bay Packers	W 23-14	1440.64	1412.32	62.68%	37.08%	+23.23	1-1
1991-09-15	Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1463.87	1552.02	46.22%	53.53%	+22.34	2-1
1991-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 33-24	1486.21	1390.55	54.60%	45.15%	+28.28	3-1
1991-09-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-3	1514.49	1390.25	74.45%	25.35%	+28.01	4-1
1991-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1542.50	1456.65	70.04%	29.74%	+12.42	5-1
1991-10-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-35	1554.92	1537.84	43.35%	56.40%	-51.20	5-2
1991-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-10	1503.72	1525.17	55.78%	43.97%	+44.97	6-2
1991-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1548.69	1573.33	37.58%	62.19%	-24.81	6-3
1991-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-30	1523.88	1287.33	73.00%	26.80%	-45.67	6-4
1991-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 21-10	1478.21	1381.93	71.28%	28.51%	+19.74	7-4
1991-11-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-14	1497.95	1530.32	36.54%	63.23%	+58.99	8-4
1991-11-28	Chicago Bears	W 16-6	1556.94	1623.94	49.26%	50.49%	+33.32	9-4
1991-12-08	New York Jets	W 34-20	1590.26	1520.02	68.13%	31.65%	+24.74	10-4
1991-12-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-17	1615.00	1341.93	76.93%	22.89%	+9.55	11-4
1991-12-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1624.55	1708.36	29.99%	69.79%	+25.22	12-4
1991-09-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-20	1451.41	1545.20	45.41%	54.34%	-39.09	0-1
1991-09-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-23	1412.32	1440.64	37.08%	62.68%	-23.23	0-2
1991-09-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 15-13	1389.09	1417.38	54.81%	44.94%	+13.27	1-2
1991-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1402.36	1529.68	25.01%	74.79%	-9.05	1-3
1991-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-23	1393.31	1424.72	36.67%	63.10%	-10.83	1-4
1991-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1382.48	1491.77	43.21%	56.54%	-15.63	1-5
1991-10-17	Chicago Bears	L 0-10	1366.85	1521.36	36.98%	62.79%	-24.42	1-6
1991-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-0	1342.43	1367.56	37.51%	62.25%	+67.49	2-6
1991-11-03	@ New York Jets	L 16-19	1409.92	1496.36	29.67%	70.11%	-10.74	2-7
1991-11-10	Buffalo Bills	L 24-34	1399.18	1654.22	24.77%	75.04%	-16.35	2-8
1991-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-35	1382.83	1497.11	42.51%	57.24%	-33.21	2-9
1991-11-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 14-10	1349.62	1260.93	70.38%	29.41%	+12.28	3-9
1991-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-35	1361.90	1543.85	19.60%	80.24%	-8.18	3-10
1991-12-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1353.72	1590.61	15.09%	84.77%	-11.79	3-11
1991-12-15	Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1341.93	1615.00	22.89%	76.93%	-9.55	3-12
1991-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1332.38	1490.80	21.81%	78.01%	+72.74	4-12
1991-09-01	Los Angeles Raiders	W 47-17	1524.18	1543.72	56.06%	43.70%	+49.97	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-7	1574.15	1463.91	56.67%	43.08%	+43.14	2-0
1991-09-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1617.29	1538.12	69.23%	30.55%	+20.18	3-0
1991-09-22	@ New England Patriots	L 20-24	1637.47	1332.46	80.02%	19.81%	-33.37	3-1
1991-10-06	Denver Broncos	W 42-14	1604.10	1579.83	62.14%	37.63%	+41.57	4-1
1991-10-13	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1645.67	1486.44	63.42%	36.35%	+13.15	5-1
1991-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1658.82	1478.01	66.24%	33.53%	+14.00	6-1
1991-10-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-3	1672.82	1347.00	90.27%	9.63%	+11.37	7-1
1991-11-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1684.19	1752.67	31.87%	67.90%	-11.53	7-2
1991-11-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-23	1672.66	1506.20	78.79%	21.04%	+7.61	8-2
1991-11-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-24	1680.27	1411.62	86.98%	12.90%	+5.38	9-2
1991-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-26	1685.65	1434.33	74.64%	25.17%	-53.92	9-3
1991-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-13	1631.73	1585.02	65.12%	34.65%	-35.94	9-4
1991-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-6	1595.79	1462.61	75.42%	24.39%	+25.47	10-4
1991-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1621.26	1448.70	65.17%	34.59%	+12.51	11-4
1991-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 20-24	1633.77	1510.69	58.47%	41.28%	-24.40	11-5
1991-09-01	New England Patriots	L 7-16	1479.90	1364.63	73.46%	26.34%	-45.96	0-1
1991-09-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-17	1433.94	1532.46	28.25%	71.54%	-19.56	0-2
1991-09-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-16	1414.38	1510.53	28.52%	71.27%	-23.83	0-3
1991-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 24-33	1390.55	1486.21	45.15%	54.60%	-28.27	0-4
1991-09-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-31	1362.28	1481.85	25.86%	73.94%	-28.58	0-5
1991-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-21	1333.70	1504.56	34.82%	64.95%	-30.84	0-6
1991-10-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-42	1302.86	1626.29	9.75%	90.15%	-12.21	0-7
1991-10-20	New York Jets	L 6-17	1290.65	1473.30	33.29%	66.48%	-23.06	0-8
1991-11-03	Miami Dolphins	L 6-10	1267.59	1464.01	31.56%	68.22%	-13.18	0-9
1991-11-10	@ New York Jets	W 28-27	1254.41	1507.09	13.97%	85.90%	+17.90	1-9
1991-11-17	Chicago Bears	L 17-31	1272.31	1641.71	14.58%	85.29%	-11.38	1-10
1991-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-14	1260.93	1349.62	29.41%	70.38%	-12.28	1-11
1991-12-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-31	1248.65	1439.26	32.28%	67.49%	-37.54	1-12
1991-12-08	@ New England Patriots	L 17-23	1211.11	1312.54	27.91%	71.88%	-14.27	1-13
1991-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 7-35	1196.84	1700.28	7.32%	92.60%	-8.08	1-14
1991-12-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-17	1188.76	1256.17	32.01%	67.77%	-25.01	1-15
1991-09-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-3	1554.49	1463.98	70.60%	29.19%	+20.22	1-0
1991-09-08	New Orleans Saints	L 10-17	1574.71	1518.94	66.29%	33.48%	-36.59	1-1
1991-09-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-17	1538.12	1617.29	30.55%	69.23%	-20.17	1-2
1991-09-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-13	1517.95	1503.37	60.82%	38.94%	+21.51	2-2
1991-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 14-13	1539.46	1407.63	59.69%	40.06%	+8.37	3-2
1991-10-07	Buffalo Bills	W 33-6	1547.83	1692.98	38.24%	61.52%	+66.69	4-2
1991-10-13	Miami Dolphins	W 42-7	1614.52	1512.39	71.97%	27.83%	+34.38	5-2
1991-10-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-19	1648.90	1538.25	56.73%	43.02%	-20.51	5-3
1991-10-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-21	1628.39	1529.87	71.54%	28.25%	+10.22	6-3
1991-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-20	1638.61	1396.39	73.63%	26.17%	+14.46	7-3
1991-11-17	Denver Broncos	L 20-24	1653.07	1569.11	69.81%	29.97%	-29.13	7-4
1991-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 15-20	1623.94	1406.24	70.81%	28.98%	-33.02	7-5
1991-12-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-6	1590.92	1528.57	49.82%	49.93%	+37.57	8-5
1991-12-08	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1628.49	1391.27	84.79%	15.07%	+5.45	9-5
1991-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-28	1633.94	1667.23	36.42%	63.35%	-28.45	9-6
1991-12-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-21	1605.49	1546.53	49.33%	50.41%	+25.77	10-6
1991-09-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-47	1543.72	1524.18	43.70%	56.06%	-49.97	0-1
1991-09-08	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1493.75	1532.30	53.34%	46.40%	+16.78	1-1
1991-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-0	1510.53	1414.38	71.27%	28.52%	+23.82	2-1
1991-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-21	1534.35	1454.65	52.32%	47.43%	-21.84	2-2
1991-09-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 12-6	1512.51	1600.39	46.26%	53.49%	+27.35	3-2
1991-10-06	San Diego Chargers	L 13-21	1539.86	1399.26	76.20%	23.61%	-44.95	3-3
1991-10-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1494.91	1532.28	35.88%	63.89%	+23.09	4-3
1991-10-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1518.00	1457.12	66.95%	32.83%	+11.87	5-3
1991-10-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1529.87	1628.39	28.25%	71.54%	-10.21	5-4
1991-11-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1519.66	1583.15	32.50%	67.28%	+14.03	6-4
1991-11-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-7	1533.69	1553.98	55.95%	43.80%	+44.80	7-4
1991-11-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-14	1578.49	1318.77	75.54%	24.27%	+24.83	8-4
1991-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	W 9-7	1603.32	1400.35	69.03%	30.75%	+9.08	9-4
1991-12-08	Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1612.40	1682.64	48.79%	50.96%	-17.64	9-5
1991-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-27	1594.76	1569.81	44.46%	55.29%	-48.23	9-6
1991-12-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-27	1546.53	1605.49	50.41%	49.33%	-25.78	9-7
1991-09-01	Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-24	1472.67	1437.65	63.58%	36.19%	-41.94	0-1
1991-09-08	@ New York Giants	W 19-13	1430.73	1607.45	20.07%	79.76%	+40.73	1-1
1991-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-24	1471.46	1555.53	29.96%	69.82%	-25.79	1-2
1991-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1445.67	1579.45	24.33%	75.48%	-20.95	1-3
1991-09-29	Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1424.72	1393.31	63.10%	36.67%	+10.83	2-3
1991-10-13	San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1435.55	1444.21	57.59%	42.16%	+21.57	3-3
1991-10-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-20	1457.12	1518.00	32.83%	66.95%	-11.88	3-4
1991-10-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1445.24	1448.98	40.43%	59.32%	-34.81	3-5
1991-11-03	New Orleans Saints	L 17-24	1410.43	1659.45	25.42%	74.38%	-14.04	3-6
1991-11-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1396.39	1638.61	26.17%	73.63%	-14.46	3-7
1991-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-21	1381.93	1478.21	28.51%	71.28%	-19.74	3-8
1991-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-33	1362.19	1596.36	27.07%	72.73%	-27.11	3-9
1991-12-01	Washington Redskins	L 6-27	1335.08	1768.53	10.56%	89.33%	-10.10	3-10
1991-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1324.98	1552.04	27.88%	71.91%	-24.01	3-11
1991-12-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-20	1300.97	1480.67	19.80%	80.03%	-10.12	3-12
1991-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-23	1290.85	1458.99	20.88%	78.95%	-16.31	3-13
1991-09-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-35	1546.30	1604.65	33.15%	66.62%	-13.84	0-1
1991-09-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 17-6	1532.46	1433.94	71.54%	28.25%	+19.56	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1552.02	1463.87	53.53%	46.22%	-22.34	1-2
1991-09-22	Green Bay Packers	W 16-13	1529.68	1402.36	74.79%	25.01%	+9.05	2-2
1991-09-29	@ New York Jets	L 23-41	1538.73	1415.85	58.45%	41.31%	-51.74	2-3
1991-10-06	@ New England Patriots	W 20-10	1486.99	1343.49	61.30%	38.46%	+25.40	3-3
1991-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-42	1512.39	1614.52	27.83%	71.97%	-34.38	3-4
1991-10-20	Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1478.01	1658.82	33.53%	66.24%	-14.00	3-5
1991-11-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 10-6	1464.01	1267.59	68.22%	31.56%	+13.18	4-5
1991-11-10	New England Patriots	W 30-20	1477.19	1326.48	77.24%	22.58%	+14.91	5-5
1991-11-18	Buffalo Bills	L 27-41	1492.10	1670.57	33.83%	65.94%	-26.44	5-6
1991-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1465.66	1653.09	19.10%	80.73%	+29.16	6-6
1991-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1494.82	1291.53	82.11%	17.74%	+16.13	7-6
1991-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-13	1510.95	1321.93	80.87%	18.96%	+19.40	8-6
1991-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 30-38	1530.35	1385.83	61.43%	38.33%	-36.25	8-7
1991-12-22	New York Jets	L 20-23	1494.10	1466.76	62.55%	37.21%	-22.61	8-8
1991-09-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-10	1503.58	1518.92	38.84%	60.92%	-16.22	0-1
1991-09-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-19	1487.36	1443.76	47.13%	52.62%	+10.99	1-1
1991-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-14	1498.35	1599.46	44.37%	55.38%	+20.01	2-1
1991-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-26	1518.36	1581.32	32.56%	67.21%	-34.68	2-2
1991-09-29	Denver Broncos	L 6-13	1483.68	1552.79	48.95%	50.79%	-27.03	2-3
1991-10-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1456.65	1542.50	29.74%	70.04%	-12.42	2-4
1991-10-13	Phoenix Cardinals	W 34-7	1444.23	1460.11	56.57%	43.18%	+46.84	3-4
1991-10-20	@ New England Patriots	L 23-26	1491.07	1318.09	65.23%	34.54%	-23.57	3-5
1991-10-27	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 28-0	1467.50	1438.65	45.02%	54.73%	+60.44	4-5
1991-11-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-13	1527.94	1300.07	84.09%	15.77%	+12.74	5-5
1991-11-11	Chicago Bears	L 17-34	1540.68	1598.14	50.63%	49.12%	-43.57	5-6
1991-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 35-21	1497.11	1382.83	57.24%	42.51%	+33.21	6-6
1991-11-24	Detroit Lions	L 14-34	1530.32	1497.95	63.23%	36.54%	-58.98	6-7
1991-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-24	1471.34	1275.39	68.16%	31.62%	+9.33	7-7
1991-12-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1480.67	1300.97	80.03%	19.80%	+10.13	8-7
1991-12-21	Green Bay Packers	L 7-27	1490.80	1332.38	78.01%	21.81%	-72.74	8-8
1991-09-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-7	1364.63	1479.90	26.34%	73.46%	+45.96	1-0
1991-09-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-20	1410.59	1360.40	65.57%	34.20%	-61.17	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-20	1349.42	1508.89	21.71%	78.11%	-16.96	1-2
1991-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 24-20	1332.46	1637.47	19.81%	80.02%	+33.37	2-2
1991-09-29	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-24	1365.83	1461.38	28.59%	71.20%	-22.34	2-3
1991-10-06	Miami Dolphins	L 10-20	1343.49	1486.99	38.46%	61.30%	-25.40	2-4
1991-10-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-23	1318.09	1491.07	34.54%	65.23%	+23.57	3-4
1991-10-27	Denver Broncos	L 6-9	1341.66	1558.75	29.05%	70.74%	-10.51	3-5
1991-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-22	1331.15	1649.55	10.01%	89.89%	-4.67	3-6
1991-11-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-30	1326.48	1477.19	22.58%	77.24%	-14.91	3-7
1991-11-17	New York Jets	L 21-28	1311.57	1489.18	33.94%	65.83%	-18.75	3-8
1991-11-24	Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1292.82	1697.01	12.26%	87.62%	+31.63	4-8
1991-12-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-20	1324.45	1578.84	13.85%	86.02%	-11.91	4-9
1991-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1312.54	1211.11	71.88%	27.91%	+14.27	5-9
1991-12-15	@ New York Jets	W 6-3	1326.81	1495.28	20.85%	78.98%	+28.53	6-9
1991-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-29	1355.34	1289.15	50.37%	49.37%	-49.32	6-10
1991-09-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1503.19	1521.64	56.21%	43.54%	+15.75	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1518.94	1574.71	33.48%	66.29%	+36.59	2-0
1991-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-7	1555.53	1471.46	69.82%	29.96%	+25.79	3-0
1991-09-22	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-0	1581.32	1518.36	67.21%	32.56%	+34.68	4-0
1991-09-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-6	1616.00	1476.49	60.75%	39.01%	+37.33	5-0
1991-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-6	1653.33	1552.55	55.33%	44.42%	+24.53	6-0
1991-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1677.86	1376.69	88.95%	10.94%	+9.13	7-0
1991-10-27	Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1686.99	1545.78	76.26%	23.55%	-27.54	7-1
1991-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1659.45	1410.43	74.38%	25.42%	+14.04	8-1
1991-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-3	1673.49	1608.56	67.46%	32.32%	+17.86	9-1
1991-11-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1691.35	1401.31	78.61%	21.21%	-28.39	9-2
1991-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1662.96	1516.10	76.85%	22.97%	-27.76	9-3
1991-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1635.20	1623.47	42.59%	57.16%	-33.27	9-4
1991-12-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-23	1601.93	1529.40	51.29%	48.46%	-32.12	9-5
1991-12-16	Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-0	1569.81	1594.76	55.29%	44.46%	+48.24	10-5
1991-12-22	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 27-3	1618.05	1292.20	81.87%	17.98%	+18.38	11-5
1991-09-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-14	1595.79	1585.16	60.27%	39.48%	+11.66	1-0
1991-09-08	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-19	1607.45	1430.73	79.76%	20.07%	-40.74	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1566.71	1544.18	44.12%	55.63%	-15.95	1-2
1991-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1550.76	1430.10	74.06%	25.74%	+9.31	2-2
1991-09-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-21	1560.07	1466.43	54.31%	45.44%	-25.35	2-3
1991-10-06	Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-9	1534.72	1483.72	65.68%	34.09%	+23.62	3-3
1991-10-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1558.34	1535.40	44.18%	55.57%	+20.08	4-3
1991-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 13-17	1578.42	1737.48	36.37%	63.39%	-15.19	4-4
1991-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1563.23	1486.18	51.94%	47.81%	-51.98	4-5
1991-11-10	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 21-14	1511.25	1352.21	63.39%	36.37%	+20.09	5-5
1991-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-9	1531.34	1498.59	63.28%	36.49%	+27.48	6-5
1991-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-14	1558.82	1305.30	74.87%	24.93%	+13.77	7-5
1991-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1572.59	1293.95	77.49%	22.33%	-27.99	7-6
1991-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-19	1544.60	1620.96	47.91%	51.84%	-22.36	7-7
1991-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-34	1522.24	1782.91	13.42%	86.45%	-11.55	7-8
1991-12-21	Houston Oilers	W 24-20	1510.69	1633.77	41.28%	58.47%	+24.40	8-8
1991-09-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1443.82	1441.09	59.18%	40.57%	+14.68	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-20	1458.50	1505.90	34.56%	65.21%	-19.10	1-1
1991-09-15	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1439.40	1645.16	30.41%	69.37%	-11.00	1-2
1991-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-19	1428.40	1560.13	24.54%	75.26%	-12.55	1-3
1991-09-29	Miami Dolphins	W 41-23	1415.85	1538.73	41.31%	58.45%	+51.74	2-3
1991-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1467.59	1420.79	47.59%	52.16%	+18.85	3-3
1991-10-13	Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1486.44	1645.67	36.35%	63.42%	-13.14	3-4
1991-10-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-6	1473.30	1290.65	66.48%	33.29%	+23.06	4-4
1991-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 19-16	1496.36	1409.92	70.11%	29.67%	+10.73	5-4
1991-11-10	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-28	1507.09	1254.41	85.90%	13.97%	-17.91	5-5
1991-11-17	@ New England Patriots	W 28-21	1489.18	1311.57	65.83%	33.94%	+18.76	6-5
1991-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 24-3	1507.94	1429.70	69.11%	30.67%	+29.34	7-5
1991-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-24	1537.28	1665.37	24.93%	74.87%	-17.26	7-6
1991-12-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-34	1520.02	1590.26	31.65%	68.13%	-24.74	7-7
1991-12-15	New England Patriots	L 3-6	1495.28	1326.81	78.98%	20.85%	-28.52	7-8
1991-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-20	1466.76	1494.10	37.21%	62.55%	+22.60	8-8
1991-09-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-3	1545.20	1451.41	54.34%	45.41%	+39.09	1-0
1991-09-08	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-26	1584.29	1479.59	72.26%	27.53%	-60.28	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-0	1524.01	1479.47	47.26%	52.49%	+53.66	2-1
1991-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-14	1577.67	1525.85	65.78%	33.99%	+21.30	3-1
1991-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-23	1598.97	1667.08	31.92%	67.86%	-31.97	3-2
1991-10-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-14	1567.00	1362.24	69.25%	30.53%	-14.45	3-3
1991-10-13	New Orleans Saints	L 6-13	1552.55	1653.33	44.42%	55.33%	-24.53	3-4
1991-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1528.02	1589.04	50.12%	49.63%	-41.84	3-5
1991-11-04	New York Giants	W 30-7	1486.18	1563.23	47.81%	51.94%	+51.98	4-5
1991-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 32-30	1538.16	1424.19	57.20%	42.55%	+12.57	5-5
1991-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1550.73	1327.69	83.71%	16.14%	+8.91	6-5
1991-11-24	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 34-14	1559.64	1326.45	72.61%	27.18%	+25.38	7-5
1991-12-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-6	1585.02	1631.73	34.65%	65.12%	+35.94	8-5
1991-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 19-14	1620.96	1544.60	51.84%	47.91%	+22.37	9-5
1991-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-25	1643.33	1561.52	69.55%	30.23%	-50.26	9-6
1991-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 24-22	1593.07	1794.46	30.95%	68.84%	+20.31	10-6
1991-09-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1437.65	1472.67	36.19%	63.58%	+41.94	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-10	1479.59	1584.29	27.53%	72.26%	+60.28	2-0
1991-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-34	1539.87	1614.64	31.09%	68.69%	-37.86	2-1
1991-09-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 9-17	1502.01	1425.80	68.86%	30.92%	-40.63	2-2
1991-09-29	New England Patriots	W 24-10	1461.38	1365.83	71.20%	28.59%	+22.34	3-2
1991-10-06	@ New York Giants	L 9-20	1483.72	1534.72	34.09%	65.68%	-23.61	3-3
1991-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1460.11	1444.23	43.18%	56.57%	-46.84	3-4
1991-10-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1413.27	1474.36	50.11%	49.64%	+25.38	4-4
1991-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-28	1438.65	1467.50	54.73%	45.02%	-60.44	4-5
1991-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1378.21	1480.20	27.84%	71.95%	-26.00	4-6
1991-11-10	New York Giants	L 14-21	1352.21	1511.25	36.37%	63.39%	-20.10	4-7
1991-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-14	1332.11	1590.70	13.56%	86.31%	-5.66	4-8
1991-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1326.45	1559.64	27.18%	72.61%	-25.38	4-9
1991-12-08	Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1301.07	1778.62	8.40%	91.52%	-4.29	4-10
1991-12-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-24	1296.78	1618.85	9.82%	90.08%	-4.58	4-11
1991-12-22	New Orleans Saints	L 3-27	1292.20	1618.05	17.98%	81.87%	-18.39	4-12
1991-09-01	San Diego Chargers	W 26-20	1516.44	1490.21	62.40%	37.36%	+19.11	1-0
1991-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 34-52	1535.55	1618.50	30.09%	69.69%	-26.66	1-1
1991-09-15	New England Patriots	W 20-6	1508.89	1349.42	78.11%	21.71%	+16.96	2-1
1991-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-23	1525.85	1577.67	33.99%	65.78%	-21.29	2-2
1991-10-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-3	1504.56	1333.70	64.95%	34.82%	+30.84	3-2
1991-10-14	New York Giants	L 20-23	1535.40	1558.34	55.57%	44.18%	-20.08	3-3
1991-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-27	1515.32	1509.19	59.65%	40.10%	-55.66	3-4
1991-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1459.66	1424.07	45.98%	53.77%	-16.63	3-5
1991-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1443.03	1569.26	25.13%	74.67%	-13.88	3-6
1991-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-27	1429.15	1352.14	51.93%	47.82%	+24.45	4-6
1991-11-17	Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1453.60	1781.91	17.77%	82.07%	-19.27	4-7
1991-11-24	Houston Oilers	W 26-14	1434.33	1685.65	25.17%	74.64%	+53.91	5-7
1991-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1488.24	1503.78	38.81%	60.95%	-25.63	5-8
1991-12-08	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-31	1462.61	1595.79	24.39%	75.42%	-25.46	5-9
1991-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1437.15	1302.54	75.57%	24.24%	+13.39	6-9
1991-12-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-10	1450.54	1436.19	60.79%	38.97%	+21.53	7-9
1991-09-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-26	1490.21	1516.44	37.36%	62.40%	-19.11	0-1
1991-09-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-34	1471.10	1573.50	27.80%	72.00%	-25.96	0-2
1991-09-15	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1445.14	1432.78	60.51%	39.25%	-21.86	0-3
1991-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-27	1423.28	1537.14	26.49%	73.31%	-15.65	0-4
1991-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-14	1407.63	1539.46	40.06%	59.69%	-8.37	0-5
1991-10-06	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-13	1399.26	1539.86	23.61%	76.20%	+44.95	1-5
1991-10-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-30	1444.21	1435.55	42.16%	57.59%	-21.57	1-6
1991-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-30	1422.64	1391.87	63.01%	36.75%	-32.20	1-7
1991-10-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-20	1390.44	1564.85	20.29%	79.54%	-14.04	1-8
1991-11-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1376.40	1578.90	30.81%	68.97%	+24.91	2-8
1991-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1401.31	1691.35	21.21%	78.61%	+28.39	3-8
1991-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 3-24	1429.70	1507.94	30.67%	69.11%	-29.35	3-9
1991-12-01	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-9	1400.35	1603.32	30.75%	69.03%	-9.08	3-10
1991-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1391.27	1628.49	15.07%	84.79%	-5.44	3-11
1991-12-15	Miami Dolphins	W 38-30	1385.83	1530.35	38.33%	61.43%	+36.25	4-11
1991-12-22	Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1422.08	1623.43	30.95%	68.83%	-11.20	4-12
1991-09-02	@ New York Giants	L 14-16	1585.16	1595.79	39.48%	60.27%	-11.66	0-1
1991-09-08	San Diego Chargers	W 34-14	1573.50	1471.10	72.00%	27.80%	+25.96	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1599.46	1498.35	55.38%	44.37%	-20.01	1-2
1991-09-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-10	1579.45	1445.67	75.48%	24.33%	+20.94	2-2
1991-09-29	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-12	1600.39	1512.51	53.49%	46.26%	-27.34	2-3
1991-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 34-39	1573.05	1439.16	75.49%	24.31%	-35.21	2-4
1991-10-20	Detroit Lions	W 35-3	1537.84	1554.92	56.40%	43.35%	+51.20	3-4
1991-10-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-7	1589.04	1528.02	49.63%	50.12%	+41.84	4-4
1991-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-17	1630.88	1483.79	61.78%	37.98%	-22.32	4-5
1991-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-10	1608.56	1673.49	32.32%	67.46%	-17.86	4-6
1991-11-17	Phoenix Cardinals	W 14-10	1590.70	1332.11	86.31%	13.56%	+5.66	5-6
1991-11-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 33-10	1596.36	1362.19	72.73%	27.07%	+27.11	6-6
1991-12-01	New Orleans Saints	W 38-24	1623.47	1635.20	57.16%	42.59%	+33.28	7-6
1991-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-22	1656.75	1491.00	64.28%	35.48%	+10.48	8-6
1991-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-14	1667.23	1633.94	63.35%	36.42%	+28.45	9-6
1991-12-23	Chicago Bears	W 52-14	1695.68	1612.28	69.74%	30.04%	+38.67	10-6
1991-09-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1521.64	1503.19	43.54%	56.21%	-15.74	0-1
1991-09-08	New York Jets	W 20-13	1505.90	1458.50	65.21%	34.56%	+19.09	1-1
1991-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1524.99	1515.52	42.28%	57.48%	-21.62	1-2
1991-09-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1503.37	1517.95	38.94%	60.82%	-21.52	1-3
1991-09-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-3	1481.85	1362.28	73.94%	25.86%	+28.58	2-3
1991-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-7	1510.43	1397.67	57.03%	42.73%	+21.85	3-3
1991-10-13	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1532.28	1494.91	63.89%	35.88%	-23.09	3-4
1991-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-7	1509.19	1515.32	40.10%	59.65%	+55.66	4-4
1991-10-27	San Diego Chargers	W 20-9	1564.85	1390.44	79.54%	20.29%	+14.05	5-4
1991-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-17	1578.90	1376.40	68.97%	30.81%	-24.92	5-5
1991-11-17	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-31	1553.98	1533.69	43.80%	55.95%	-44.80	5-6
1991-11-24	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1509.18	1598.23	46.09%	53.66%	+19.39	6-6
1991-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-19	1528.57	1590.92	49.93%	49.82%	-37.57	6-7
1991-12-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-24	1491.00	1656.75	35.48%	64.28%	-10.48	6-8
1991-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-26	1480.52	1576.04	28.60%	71.19%	-21.53	6-9
1991-12-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-9	1458.99	1290.85	78.95%	20.88%	+16.31	7-9
1991-09-01	@ New York Jets	L 13-16	1441.09	1443.82	40.57%	59.18%	-14.67	0-1
1991-09-08	Chicago Bears	L 20-21	1426.42	1535.14	43.30%	56.46%	-9.04	0-2
1991-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-15	1417.38	1389.09	44.94%	54.81%	-13.27	0-3
1991-09-22	Buffalo Bills	L 10-17	1404.11	1656.16	25.09%	74.71%	-13.86	0-4
1991-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-31	1390.25	1514.49	25.35%	74.45%	-28.01	0-5
1991-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1362.24	1567.00	30.53%	69.25%	+14.45	1-5
1991-10-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-23	1376.69	1677.86	10.94%	88.95%	-9.13	1-6
1991-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 0-27	1367.56	1342.43	62.25%	37.51%	-67.49	1-7
1991-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-28	1300.07	1527.94	15.77%	84.09%	-12.74	1-8
1991-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 30-21	1287.33	1523.88	26.80%	73.00%	+45.67	2-8
1991-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-43	1333.00	1488.40	22.11%	77.71%	-27.70	2-9
1991-11-24	New York Giants	L 14-21	1305.30	1558.82	24.93%	74.87%	-13.77	2-10
1991-12-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-33	1291.53	1494.82	17.74%	82.11%	-16.14	2-11
1991-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-26	1275.39	1471.34	31.62%	68.16%	-9.34	2-12
1991-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1266.05	1602.40	9.12%	90.79%	-9.88	2-13
1991-12-22	Indianapolis Colts	W 17-3	1256.17	1188.76	67.77%	32.01%	+25.01	3-13
1991-09-01	Detroit Lions	W 45-0	1558.17	1484.36	68.57%	31.21%	+43.72	1-0
1991-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-31	1601.89	1492.21	56.59%	43.16%	+12.75	2-0
1991-09-15	Phoenix Cardinals	W 34-0	1614.64	1539.87	68.69%	31.09%	+37.86	3-0
1991-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-27	1652.50	1412.24	73.41%	26.38%	+14.58	4-0
1991-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-0	1667.08	1598.97	67.86%	31.92%	+31.96	5-0
1991-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-7	1699.04	1549.73	62.08%	37.68%	+28.37	6-0
1991-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-17	1727.41	1401.94	90.25%	9.65%	+10.07	7-0
1991-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1737.48	1578.42	63.39%	36.37%	+15.19	8-0
1991-11-03	Houston Oilers	W 16-13	1752.67	1684.19	67.90%	31.87%	+11.52	9-0
1991-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 56-17	1764.19	1506.12	86.27%	13.60%	+17.72	10-0
1991-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-14	1781.91	1453.60	82.07%	17.77%	+19.28	11-0
1991-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1801.19	1471.12	90.48%	9.42%	-32.66	11-1
1991-12-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-6	1768.53	1335.08	89.33%	10.56%	+10.09	12-1
1991-12-08	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-14	1778.62	1301.07	91.52%	8.40%	+4.29	13-1
1991-12-15	New York Giants	W 34-17	1782.91	1522.24	86.45%	13.42%	+11.55	14-1
1991-12-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-24	1794.46	1593.07	68.84%	30.95%	-20.30	14-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1991-12-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-20	1581.29	1636.43	33.66%	66.34%	+36.54	1-0
1992-01-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-24	1617.83	1774.16	22.08%	77.92%	-18.95	1-1
1992-01-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-14	1683.14	1642.48	64.45%	35.55%	+35.50	1-0
1992-01-12	Denver Broncos	W 10-7	1718.64	1646.27	68.52%	31.48%	+11.35	2-0
1992-01-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-37	1729.99	1826.43	36.47%	63.53%	-27.37	2-1
1991-12-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1573.61	1628.05	51.19%	48.81%	-21.32	0-1
1991-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-13	1628.05	1573.61	48.81%	51.19%	+21.32	1-0
1992-01-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-38	1649.37	1649.77	41.02%	58.98%	-48.31	1-1
1992-01-04	Houston Oilers	W 26-24	1634.63	1623.63	60.45%	39.55%	+11.64	1-0
1992-01-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-10	1646.27	1718.64	31.48%	68.52%	-11.35	1-1
1992-01-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-6	1649.77	1649.37	58.98%	41.02%	+48.31	1-0
1992-01-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-41	1698.08	1793.11	28.74%	71.26%	-33.32	1-1
1991-12-29	New York Jets	W 17-10	1609.37	1489.36	74.11%	25.89%	+14.26	1-0
1992-01-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-26	1623.63	1634.63	39.55%	60.45%	-11.65	1-1
1991-12-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 10-6	1631.26	1520.75	73.05%	26.95%	+11.22	1-0
1992-01-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-37	1642.48	1683.14	35.55%	64.45%	-35.49	1-1
1991-12-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1520.75	1631.26	26.95%	73.05%	-11.22	0-1
1991-12-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-27	1636.43	1581.29	66.34%	33.66%	-36.54	0-1
1991-12-29	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1489.36	1609.37	25.89%	74.11%	-14.26	0-1
1992-01-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1774.16	1617.83	77.92%	22.08%	+18.95	1-0
1992-01-12	Detroit Lions	W 41-10	1793.11	1698.08	71.26%	28.74%	+33.32	2-0
1992-01-26	Buffalo Bills	W 37-24	1826.43	1729.99	63.53%	36.47%	+27.37	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1991-11-24	9.42%	Dallas Cowboys	1471.12	24	@ Washington Redskins	1801.19	21
2	1991-11-24	12.26%	@ New England Patriots	1292.82	16	Buffalo Bills	1697.01	13
3	1991-11-10	13.97%	Indianapolis Colts	1254.41	28	@ New York Jets	1507.09	27
4	1991-11-24	19.10%	Miami Dolphins	1465.66	16	@ Chicago Bears	1653.09	13
5	1991-09-22	19.81%	@ New England Patriots	1332.46	24	Houston Oilers	1637.47	20
6	1991-09-08	20.07%	Los Angeles Rams	1430.73	19	@ New York Giants	1607.45	13
7	1991-12-15	20.85%	New England Patriots	1326.81	6	@ New York Jets	1495.28	3
8	1991-11-17	21.21%	@ San Diego Chargers	1401.31	24	New Orleans Saints	1691.35	21
9	1991-12-21	21.81%	Green Bay Packers	1332.38	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1490.80	7
10	1991-12-01	22.33%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1293.95	27	New York Giants	1572.59	24
11	1991-11-24	22.97%	Atlanta Falcons	1516.10	23	@ New Orleans Saints	1662.96	20
12	1991-10-27	23.55%	Chicago Bears	1545.78	20	@ New Orleans Saints	1686.99	17
13	1991-10-06	23.61%	San Diego Chargers	1399.26	21	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1539.86	13
14	1991-10-13	24.31%	Atlanta Falcons	1439.16	39	@ San Francisco 49ers	1573.05	34
15	1991-11-24	25.17%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1434.33	26	Houston Oilers	1685.65	14
16	1991-09-01	26.34%	New England Patriots	1364.63	16	@ Indianapolis Colts	1479.90	7
17	1991-11-10	26.80%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1287.33	30	Detroit Lions	1523.88	21
18	1991-09-08	27.53%	Phoenix Cardinals	1479.59	26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1584.29	10
19	1991-11-24	28.98%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1406.24	20	Kansas City Chiefs	1623.94	15
20	1991-11-17	29.97%	Denver Broncos	1569.11	24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1653.07	20
21	1991-12-22	29.99%	Detroit Lions	1624.55	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1708.36	14
22	1991-12-15	30.23%	Dallas Cowboys	1561.52	25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1643.33	13
23	1991-10-06	30.53%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1362.24	14	Philadelphia Eagles	1567.00	13
24	1991-11-10	30.81%	@ San Diego Chargers	1376.40	17	Seattle Seahawks	1578.90	14
25	1991-09-22	30.92%	Dallas Cowboys	1425.80	17	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1502.01	9

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1991-12-21	72.74	Green Bay Packers	27	1332.38	21.81%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1490.80	78.01%
2	1991-10-27	67.49	Green Bay Packers	27	1342.43	37.51%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1367.56	62.25%
3	1991-10-07	66.69	@ Kansas City Chiefs	33	1547.83	38.24%	Buffalo Bills	6	1692.98	61.52%
4	1991-09-08	61.17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	20	1360.40	34.20%	@ New England Patriots	0	1410.59	65.57%
5	1991-10-27	60.44	Minnesota Vikings	28	1467.50	45.02%	@ Phoenix Cardinals	0	1438.65	54.73%
6	1991-09-08	60.28	Phoenix Cardinals	26	1479.59	27.53%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1584.29	72.26%
7	1991-11-24	58.99	Detroit Lions	34	1497.95	36.54%	@ Minnesota Vikings	14	1530.32	63.23%
8	1991-10-20	55.66	Seattle Seahawks	27	1509.19	40.10%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1515.32	59.65%
9	1991-09-01	54.17	@ Denver Broncos	45	1478.13	53.15%	Cincinnati Bengals	14	1518.07	46.60%
10	1991-11-24	53.92	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	26	1434.33	25.17%	Houston Oilers	14	1685.65	74.64%
11	1991-09-15	53.67	Philadelphia Eagles	24	1524.01	47.26%	@ Dallas Cowboys	0	1479.47	52.49%
12	1991-11-04	51.98	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1486.18	47.81%	New York Giants	7	1563.23	51.94%
13	1991-09-29	51.74	@ New York Jets	41	1415.85	41.31%	Miami Dolphins	23	1538.73	58.45%
14	1991-10-20	51.20	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1537.84	56.40%	Detroit Lions	3	1554.92	43.35%
15	1991-12-15	50.26	Dallas Cowboys	25	1561.52	30.23%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1643.33	69.55%
16	1991-09-01	49.97	@ Houston Oilers	47	1524.18	56.06%	Los Angeles Raiders	17	1543.72	43.70%
17	1991-12-22	49.32	@ Cincinnati Bengals	29	1289.15	49.37%	New England Patriots	7	1355.34	50.37%
18	1992-01-05 *	48.31	@ Detroit Lions	38	1649.77	58.98%	Dallas Cowboys	6	1649.37	41.02%
19	1991-12-16	48.24	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1569.81	55.29%	Los Angeles Raiders	0	1594.76	44.46%
20	1991-10-13	46.84	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1444.23	56.57%	Phoenix Cardinals	7	1460.11	43.18%
21	1991-09-01	45.96	New England Patriots	16	1364.63	26.34%	@ Indianapolis Colts	7	1479.90	73.46%
22	1991-11-10	45.67	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	1287.33	26.80%	Detroit Lions	21	1523.88	73.00%
23	1991-10-27	44.97	@ Detroit Lions	34	1503.72	55.78%	Dallas Cowboys	10	1525.17	43.97%
24	1991-10-06	44.95	San Diego Chargers	21	1399.26	23.61%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	13	1539.86	76.20%
25	1991-11-17	44.80	@ Los Angeles Raiders	31	1533.69	55.95%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1553.98	43.80%