1990 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New York Giants

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1986

Runner-Up

Buffalo Bills

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Raiders

2.99 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.01 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New England Patriots

4.01 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.01 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	9	7	.562	-	360	352	+8	8.58	+0.42
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	9	7	.562	-	405	307	+98	8.40	+0.60
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	-	292	240	+52	8.61	+0.39
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	13	.188	6	228	462	-234	6.09	-3.09

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	3	.812	-	428	263	+165	10.30	+2.70
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	336	242	+94	9.56	+2.44
3	Indianapolis Colts	7	9	.438	6	281	353	-72	6.86	+0.14
4	New York Jets	6	10	.375	7	295	345	-50	6.72	-0.72
5	New England Patriots	1	15	.062	12	181	446	-265	5.01	-4.01

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	-	337	268	+69	9.01	+2.99
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	369	257	+112	9.22	+1.78
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	3	306	286	+20	7.28	+1.72
4	San Diego Chargers	6	10	.375	6	315	281	+34	7.87	-1.87
5	Denver Broncos	5	11	.312	7	331	374	-43	7.62	-2.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	5	.688	-	348	280	+68	9.88	+1.12
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	.375	5	264	367	-103	6.85	-0.85
3	Green Bay Packers	6	10	.375	5	271	347	-76	7.30	-1.30
4	Detroit Lions	6	10	.375	5	373	413	-40	6.72	-0.72
5	Minnesota Vikings	6	10	.375	5	351	326	+25	7.99	-1.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	13	3	.812	-	335	211	+124	10.63	+2.37
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	396	299	+97	8.86	+1.14
3	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	381	301	+80	8.94	+1.06
4	Dallas Cowboys	7	9	.438	6	244	308	-64	6.14	+0.86
5	Phoenix Cardinals	5	11	.312	8	268	396	-128	5.73	-0.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	14	2	.875	-	353	239	+114	11.34	+2.66
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	8	8	.500	6	274	275	-1	8.25	-0.25
3	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	9	348	365	-17	6.52	-1.52
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	11	.312	9	345	412	-67	7.73	-2.73

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 17

Kansas City Chiefs 16

Jan 5

Cincinnati Bengals 41

Houston Oilers 14

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills 44

Miami Dolphins 34

Jan 12

Los Angeles Raiders 20

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 13

Conference Championship

Buffalo Bills 51

Los Angeles Raiders 3

Jan 20

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 20

Philadelphia Eagles 6

Jan 5

Chicago Bears 16

New Orleans Saints 6

Jan 6

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 28

Washington Redskins 10

Jan 12

New York Giants 31

Chicago Bears 3

Jan 13

Conference Championship

New York Giants 15

San Francisco 49ers 13

Jan 20

Super Bowl

New York Giants 20

Buffalo Bills 19

Jan 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1681	14	11.34	+2.66	97.39%	3	8	10	11	13	14	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1666	13	10.30	+2.70	96.58%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1649	13	10.63	+2.37	95.03%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1615	10	8.86	+1.14	80.94%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1611	12	9.01	+2.99	96.92%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1607	11	9.22	+1.78	88.58%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1602	12	9.56	+2.44	94.77%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1597	10	8.94	+1.06	79.49%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1579	9	8.40	+0.60	71.70%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1542	11	9.88	+1.12	80.55%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1541	9	7.28	+1.72	87.58%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1529	9	8.61	+0.39	68.45%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1522	8	8.25	-0.25	55.37%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1512	9	8.58	+0.42	68.91%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1505	6	7.99	-1.99	22.62%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1475	6	7.87	-1.87	24.29%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1467	6	6.72	-0.72	46.33%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1463	7	6.86	+0.14	63.60%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1451	5	7.62	-2.62	13.77%	1	4	6	8	9	11	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1442	5	7.73	-2.73	12.31%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1420	7	6.14	+0.86	77.07%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1417	5	6.52	-1.52	30.44%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1407	6	7.30	-1.30	34.45%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1393	6	6.85	-0.85	43.26%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1388	6	6.72	-0.72	46.21%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1383	5	5.73	-0.73	46.47%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1308	3	6.09	-3.09	7.68%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1230	1	5.01	-4.01	1.55%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	-
New York Jets	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	-	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.0 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.67%	2.01%	1.12%	1.12%	0.45%	0.22%	5.58%
7–13	0.67%	5.36%	4.91%	6.47%	2.68%	2.23%	0.22%	22.54%
14–20	2.01%	4.91%	6.70%	6.25%	3.12%	1.12%	1.12%	25.22%
21–27	1.12%	6.47%	6.25%	8.48%	2.01%	1.56%	0.67%	26.56%
28–34	1.12%	2.68%	3.12%	2.01%	1.79%	0.45%	—	11.16%
35–41	0.45%	2.23%	1.12%	1.56%	0.45%	0.45%	0.22%	6.47%
42+	0.22%	0.22%	1.12%	0.67%	—	0.22%	—	2.46%
Total	5.58%	22.54%	25.22%	26.56%	11.16%	6.47%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	20.12	+0.00
SD	10.02	10.02	15.27
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	58	58	+44
Min	0	0	-44

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	12.50%	43.75%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	22.81	-1.06
SD	11.26	10.62	12.04
CV	0.52	0.47	—
Max	47	45	+21
Min	7	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.75	16.44	+10.31
SD	10.24	10.40	16.34
CV	0.38	0.63	—
Max	45	30	+42
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	17.50	+4.25
SD	8.78	10.72	15.30
CV	0.40	0.61	—
Max	38	41	+29
Min	9	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	22.00	+0.50
SD	10.35	11.89	18.28
CV	0.46	0.54	—
Max	41	48	+34
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.25	28.88	-14.62
SD	8.58	12.81	16.45
CV	0.60	0.44	—
Max	30	58	+10
Min	0	3	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.25	-4.00
SD	9.92	6.32	13.95
CV	0.65	0.33	—
Max	41	31	+31
Min	3	10	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.69	23.38	-2.69
SD	7.60	8.66	8.14
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	34	40	+10
Min	7	10	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.31	25.81	-2.50
SD	11.41	9.88	12.80
CV	0.49	0.38	—
Max	40	43	+17
Min	0	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	56.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	21.69	-4.75
SD	9.38	6.16	12.97
CV	0.55	0.28	—
Max	36	31	+14
Min	0	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.31	19.19	+6.12
SD	13.45	10.88	17.48
CV	0.53	0.57	—
Max	58	47	+44
Min	9	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	50.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	22.06	-4.50
SD	9.16	5.51	11.21
CV	0.52	0.25	—
Max	35	31	+14
Min	7	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	43.75%	—	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.06	16.06	+7.00
SD	10.14	8.55	13.76
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	43	27	+34
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	50.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	16.75	+4.31
SD	7.13	10.21	9.23
CV	0.34	0.61	—
Max	38	38	+17
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	25.75	-4.19
SD	11.09	8.35	15.98
CV	0.51	0.32	—
Max	44	41	+21
Min	7	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	15.12	+5.88
SD	7.45	9.93	13.65
CV	0.35	0.66	—
Max	30	42	+23
Min	3	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	20.38	+1.56
SD	7.70	8.83	13.09
CV	0.35	0.43	—
Max	41	34	+29
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	18.75%	6.25%	56.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.31	27.88	-16.56
SD	6.35	11.48	11.70
CV	0.56	0.41	—
Max	24	48	+2
Min	0	13	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	17.19	-0.06
SD	8.96	9.03	14.17
CV	0.52	0.53	—
Max	35	32	+28
Min	3	7	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	13.19	+7.75
SD	7.46	8.12	11.12
CV	0.36	0.62	—
Max	31	31	+24
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	21.56	-3.12
SD	11.01	9.75	17.85
CV	0.60	0.45	—
Max	42	39	+35
Min	3	7	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.75	18.69	+6.06
SD	8.74	8.19	11.91
CV	0.35	0.44	—
Max	48	30	+31
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.75	24.75	-8.00
SD	8.76	10.86	17.19
CV	0.52	0.44	—
Max	34	45	+20
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.25	15.00	+3.25
SD	13.05	9.88	20.10
CV	0.72	0.66	—
Max	41	34	+35
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	17.56	+2.12
SD	11.56	7.99	17.19
CV	0.59	0.46	—
Max	41	36	+36
Min	7	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	14.94	+7.12
SD	8.85	8.33	9.12
CV	0.40	0.56	—
Max	45	35	+24
Min	7	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	17.88	+1.25
SD	8.64	7.80	10.66
CV	0.45	0.44	—
Max	33	34	+20
Min	0	7	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	22.94	-6.44
SD	9.01	8.62	15.19
CV	0.55	0.38	—
Max	38	41	+17
Min	6	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.81	18.81	+5.00
SD	10.87	10.50	14.58
CV	0.46	0.56	—
Max	42	38	+31
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.40	+0.4
Allowed	0.76	-0.4
Differential	0.80	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Raiders	12	9.01	+2.99
2	Buffalo Bills	13	10.30	+2.70
3	San Francisco 49ers	14	11.34	+2.66
4	Miami Dolphins	12	9.56	+2.44
5	New York Giants	13	10.63	+2.37

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	1	5.01	-4.01
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	6.09	-3.09
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	7.73	-2.73
4	Denver Broncos	5	7.62	-2.62
5	Minnesota Vikings	6	7.99	-1.99

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	10	Sep 9 – Nov 18	1 in 60
2	Minnesota Vikings	5	Nov 4 – Dec 2	1 in 42
3	Dallas Cowboys	4	Nov 18 – Dec 16	1 in 38
4	San Francisco 49ers	10	Sep 10 – Nov 18	1 in 35
5	Buffalo Bills	8	Sep 24 – Nov 18	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	14	Sep 23 – Dec 30	1 in 176
2	Minnesota Vikings	5	Sep 23 – Oct 28	1 in 60
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	Nov 4 – Dec 16	1 in 45
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	Oct 14 – Dec 9	1 in 29
5	Denver Broncos	6	Nov 4 – Dec 9	1 in 21

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.07%	30.34%	24.24%	11.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.25%	29.86%	25.97%	12.93%
Houston Oilers	30.37%	29.30%	26.82%	13.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.32%	10.50%	22.97%	62.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	55.49%	29.82%	10.46%	3.52%	0.72%
Miami Dolphins	34.53%	39.91%	16.79%	6.73%	2.04%
Indianapolis Colts	5.13%	14.26%	31.02%	30.23%	19.36%
New York Jets	4.26%	12.76%	29.18%	32.51%	21.29%
New England Patriots	0.60%	3.24%	12.55%	27.02%	56.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Kansas City Chiefs	34.51%	25.31%	18.75%	13.31%	8.11%
Los Angeles Raiders	31.57%	25.03%	19.31%	14.44%	9.65%
San Diego Chargers	13.97%	19.10%	21.80%	22.63%	22.49%
Denver Broncos	10.99%	16.52%	20.97%	24.33%	27.19%
Seattle Seahawks	8.96%	14.03%	19.17%	25.29%	32.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	57.13%	22.80%	11.48%	5.92%	2.67%
Minnesota Vikings	18.79%	27.54%	22.86%	18.01%	12.79%
Green Bay Packers	10.98%	19.98%	23.55%	23.66%	21.82%
Detroit Lions	6.60%	15.02%	20.85%	26.00%	31.55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.50%	14.66%	21.26%	26.41%	31.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	56.87%	25.95%	12.53%	3.79%	0.85%
Washington Redskins	21.02%	32.18%	28.51%	13.28%	5.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	19.05%	30.73%	30.67%	14.18%	5.38%
Dallas Cowboys	1.89%	6.50%	15.90%	36.69%	39.02%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.17%	4.64%	12.40%	32.06%	49.73%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	78.90%	15.75%	4.32%	1.03%
New Orleans Saints	11.21%	39.31%	31.02%	18.45%
Los Angeles Rams	7.07%	30.29%	36.49%	26.15%
Atlanta Falcons	2.82%	14.64%	28.17%	54.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Buffalo Bills	28.33%	17.96%	13.45%	9.97%	8.51%	6.64%	4.39%	3.54%	2.63%	1.75%	1.34%	0.83%	0.42%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	16.34%	13.24%	12.53%	11.77%	10.82%	8.98%	6.62%	5.68%	4.59%	3.26%	2.60%	1.74%	1.09%	0.74%
Kansas City Chiefs	12.23%	12.77%	11.32%	10.52%	9.57%	8.36%	7.98%	6.50%	5.61%	5.12%	3.83%	3.00%	2.22%	0.99%
Los Angeles Raiders	11.24%	11.78%	10.39%	10.14%	9.28%	8.34%	8.14%	6.93%	6.12%	5.69%	4.47%	3.49%	2.75%	1.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.01%	9.51%	10.49%	10.03%	9.89%	10.08%	8.61%	8.36%	7.70%	5.95%	4.82%	4.01%	2.56%	0.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.51%	8.87%	10.30%	9.52%	9.75%	10.06%	8.98%	8.58%	7.71%	6.14%	5.31%	4.27%	2.79%	1.22%
Houston Oilers	6.41%	8.28%	9.44%	9.15%	9.17%	9.88%	8.76%	8.70%	8.40%	6.71%	5.71%	4.82%	3.25%	1.32%
San Diego Chargers	3.78%	5.45%	6.06%	7.16%	7.68%	7.79%	8.90%	8.49%	8.15%	9.17%	7.99%	7.47%	7.68%	4.23%
Denver Broncos	2.98%	4.14%	5.01%	6.25%	6.70%	7.23%	8.60%	8.56%	8.54%	9.80%	9.08%	8.76%	9.01%	5.34%
Seattle Seahawks	2.11%	3.29%	4.07%	5.28%	5.72%	6.40%	7.85%	7.94%	8.60%	10.37%	9.97%	10.00%	10.60%	7.80%
Indianapolis Colts	1.42%	2.00%	2.80%	3.94%	4.75%	5.83%	7.17%	8.82%	9.78%	9.83%	11.11%	11.03%	10.16%	11.36%
New York Jets	1.16%	1.62%	2.35%	3.47%	4.40%	5.22%	6.85%	8.32%	9.59%	10.08%	11.54%	11.55%	11.17%	12.69%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.41%	0.92%	1.46%	2.25%	2.87%	3.79%	4.99%	6.29%	7.91%	9.84%	12.94%	16.16%	17.96%	12.19%
New England Patriots	0.07%	0.16%	0.32%	0.55%	0.89%	1.39%	2.16%	3.28%	4.69%	6.30%	9.30%	12.86%	18.35%	39.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	39.86%	23.47%	14.11%	8.02%	5.33%	3.50%	2.19%	1.44%	0.96%	0.54%	0.33%	0.17%	0.07%	0.01%
New York Giants	24.13%	21.32%	15.73%	11.39%	8.27%	6.11%	4.41%	3.09%	2.17%	1.48%	0.93%	0.55%	0.28%	0.14%
Chicago Bears	12.54%	17.46%	18.34%	11.98%	9.70%	7.86%	5.96%	4.76%	3.59%	2.81%	2.08%	1.43%	1.00%	0.51%
Washington Redskins	6.94%	8.98%	10.15%	12.10%	10.73%	10.15%	9.38%	8.16%	6.95%	5.22%	4.31%	3.26%	2.14%	1.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.56%	8.48%	9.49%	11.63%	11.19%	10.36%	9.72%	8.71%	7.31%	5.69%	4.54%	3.35%	2.41%	1.58%
New Orleans Saints	3.10%	4.85%	6.80%	9.70%	11.31%	11.07%	10.07%	9.49%	9.19%	7.39%	6.21%	5.49%	3.52%	1.83%
Minnesota Vikings	2.77%	5.03%	7.19%	8.35%	9.13%	9.71%	9.39%	9.19%	8.66%	7.90%	7.22%	6.09%	5.47%	3.88%
Los Angeles Rams	2.03%	2.95%	4.74%	7.28%	8.74%	9.54%	10.18%	10.42%	10.59%	9.09%	8.17%	7.97%	5.28%	3.02%
Green Bay Packers	1.14%	2.54%	4.31%	5.47%	6.80%	7.81%	8.48%	9.19%	9.55%	9.56%	9.45%	9.17%	9.03%	7.48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.51%	1.45%	2.77%	3.77%	5.00%	6.28%	7.38%	8.44%	9.03%	10.44%	10.47%	10.65%	12.70%	11.13%
Detroit Lions	0.49%	1.45%	2.61%	3.67%	4.86%	6.24%	6.96%	8.02%	8.92%	10.02%	10.73%	11.13%	12.74%	12.15%
Atlanta Falcons	0.47%	0.97%	1.81%	3.11%	4.29%	5.29%	6.68%	7.89%	9.47%	10.61%	12.51%	14.30%	12.46%	10.15%
Dallas Cowboys	0.30%	0.67%	1.21%	2.11%	2.77%	3.57%	5.25%	6.25%	7.40%	10.26%	11.99%	13.08%	15.07%	20.07%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.16%	0.38%	0.75%	1.42%	1.91%	2.51%	3.95%	4.94%	6.22%	9.00%	11.06%	13.36%	17.83%	26.51%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	27.75%	16.37%	12.52%	9.16%	7.00%	5.57%	4.29%	3.41%	2.74%	2.34%	1.84%	1.50%	1.16%	0.97%	0.80%	0.62%	0.48%	0.39%	0.31%	0.24%	0.18%	0.14%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New York Giants	16.28%	12.01%	11.57%	8.76%	8.15%	6.59%	5.87%	4.79%	4.17%	3.67%	3.06%	2.74%	2.21%	1.90%	1.54%	1.47%	1.09%	0.99%	0.73%	0.66%	0.51%	0.35%	0.31%	0.22%	0.15%	0.10%	0.08%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	12.11%	13.16%	9.48%	9.25%	7.36%	7.00%	5.62%	5.22%	4.41%	4.37%	3.36%	3.25%	2.41%	2.36%	1.86%	1.80%	1.33%	1.24%	0.94%	0.86%	0.71%	0.58%	0.45%	0.33%	0.24%	0.16%	0.11%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	7.86%	8.03%	9.02%	8.36%	8.19%	7.71%	6.13%	5.63%	4.84%	4.71%	3.85%	3.62%	3.05%	2.98%	2.54%	2.14%	2.00%	1.69%	1.52%	1.29%	1.18%	0.94%	0.79%	0.62%	0.52%	0.39%	0.27%	0.14%
Miami Dolphins	6.14%	8.00%	6.73%	7.32%	6.64%	6.52%	6.04%	6.09%	5.45%	5.43%	4.40%	4.49%	3.62%	3.43%	3.00%	2.78%	2.33%	2.26%	1.77%	1.60%	1.43%	1.17%	0.95%	0.73%	0.63%	0.45%	0.37%	0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.28%	6.29%	6.02%	6.73%	5.62%	6.21%	5.46%	5.47%	5.21%	4.92%	4.59%	4.36%	4.06%	3.83%	3.58%	3.23%	3.06%	2.54%	2.66%	2.40%	2.08%	1.74%	1.52%	1.33%	1.10%	0.83%	0.54%	0.32%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.85%	5.48%	5.69%	6.06%	5.64%	5.36%	5.56%	5.04%	5.30%	4.50%	4.76%	4.13%	4.35%	3.77%	3.90%	3.38%	3.42%	2.81%	2.96%	2.59%	2.42%	2.03%	1.73%	1.59%	1.39%	1.14%	0.69%	0.45%
Washington Redskins	4.08%	3.86%	5.05%	4.66%	5.54%	4.93%	5.96%	5.40%	5.23%	5.11%	5.12%	4.87%	4.40%	4.45%	3.92%	4.24%	3.21%	3.43%	2.59%	2.71%	2.24%	2.20%	1.76%	1.51%	1.29%	0.93%	0.83%	0.46%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.11%	3.64%	4.61%	4.35%	5.14%	4.95%	5.59%	5.52%	5.33%	5.34%	5.02%	5.15%	4.49%	4.59%	4.26%	4.30%	3.55%	3.57%	2.99%	2.74%	2.46%	2.08%	1.91%	1.52%	1.40%	1.01%	0.90%	0.46%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.13%	3.63%	3.96%	5.04%	4.97%	5.38%	4.95%	5.50%	5.14%	5.17%	4.90%	5.16%	4.67%	4.61%	4.08%	4.06%	3.88%	3.86%	3.11%	3.04%	2.57%	2.48%	2.15%	1.85%	1.39%	1.19%	0.70%	0.44%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.15%	3.40%	3.82%	4.76%	4.66%	5.41%	4.68%	5.31%	5.00%	5.16%	4.94%	4.98%	4.75%	4.65%	4.33%	4.06%	3.97%	3.88%	3.23%	3.09%	2.82%	2.55%	2.26%	1.93%	1.50%	1.33%	0.79%	0.58%
Houston Oilers	2.07%	3.19%	3.61%	4.32%	4.39%	5.01%	4.54%	4.75%	4.81%	4.70%	4.83%	5.00%	4.74%	4.54%	4.40%	4.25%	4.13%	4.24%	3.32%	3.47%	3.00%	2.97%	2.53%	2.25%	1.69%	1.64%	0.94%	0.65%
New Orleans Saints	1.62%	1.98%	2.71%	2.89%	3.64%	3.85%	4.54%	4.82%	4.94%	5.36%	5.02%	5.51%	4.89%	4.93%	4.39%	4.83%	4.46%	4.57%	3.71%	3.68%	3.28%	3.19%	2.87%	2.59%	1.99%	1.72%	1.17%	0.85%
Minnesota Vikings	1.41%	1.79%	2.65%	2.73%	3.60%	3.49%	4.10%	4.04%	4.51%	4.45%	4.62%	4.55%	4.67%	4.59%	4.57%	4.46%	4.38%	4.36%	3.99%	4.05%	3.67%	3.78%	3.27%	3.20%	2.77%	2.64%	2.12%	1.53%
San Diego Chargers	0.93%	1.97%	2.23%	2.86%	2.94%	3.45%	3.50%	3.82%	3.88%	4.10%	4.22%	4.10%	4.63%	4.38%	4.53%	4.36%	4.41%	4.05%	4.68%	4.42%	4.17%	3.86%	3.74%	3.70%	3.63%	3.22%	2.44%	1.80%
Los Angeles Rams	0.99%	1.19%	1.67%	1.84%	2.61%	2.63%	3.59%	3.45%	4.11%	4.17%	4.74%	4.70%	4.88%	4.84%	4.98%	5.01%	4.93%	5.24%	4.57%	4.56%	4.24%	4.15%	3.86%	3.86%	3.00%	2.81%	1.93%	1.44%
Denver Broncos	0.79%	1.48%	1.73%	2.24%	2.47%	2.74%	3.06%	3.22%	3.57%	3.50%	4.00%	3.81%	4.41%	4.22%	4.63%	4.41%	4.60%	4.17%	4.88%	4.72%	4.65%	4.44%	4.46%	4.22%	4.22%	4.04%	2.95%	2.35%
Green Bay Packers	0.54%	0.77%	1.32%	1.43%	2.07%	2.17%	2.66%	2.85%	3.28%	3.33%	3.69%	3.92%	4.12%	4.29%	4.35%	4.69%	4.84%	4.67%	4.90%	4.80%	4.81%	4.78%	4.82%	4.74%	4.59%	4.41%	3.96%	3.16%
Seattle Seahawks	0.50%	1.03%	1.36%	1.78%	1.89%	2.26%	2.60%	2.73%	3.10%	2.95%	3.59%	3.24%	4.09%	3.76%	4.41%	4.05%	4.63%	4.20%	5.28%	5.08%	5.02%	4.89%	5.00%	4.96%	5.08%	4.86%	4.18%	3.49%
Indianapolis Colts	0.32%	0.69%	0.88%	1.05%	1.36%	1.51%	1.84%	2.16%	2.30%	2.63%	2.98%	3.05%	3.42%	3.86%	4.08%	4.46%	4.63%	5.10%	4.72%	5.20%	5.22%	5.72%	5.40%	5.76%	5.14%	5.40%	5.62%	5.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	0.35%	0.69%	0.91%	1.18%	1.50%	1.76%	2.11%	2.30%	2.64%	2.92%	3.25%	3.49%	3.82%	4.17%	4.31%	4.60%	4.54%	5.38%	5.03%	5.45%	5.12%	5.86%	5.43%	6.56%	5.75%	6.03%	4.62%
Detroit Lions	0.21%	0.38%	0.69%	0.81%	1.28%	1.37%	1.77%	1.89%	2.34%	2.41%	2.85%	3.01%	3.52%	3.51%	4.02%	3.98%	4.47%	4.52%	4.93%	5.00%	5.42%	5.46%	5.66%	5.86%	6.23%	6.53%	6.36%	5.49%
New York Jets	0.22%	0.52%	0.63%	0.90%	1.06%	1.33%	1.55%	1.84%	2.09%	2.51%	2.65%	2.82%	3.23%	3.74%	4.06%	4.22%	4.53%	5.04%	4.94%	5.26%	5.53%	5.73%	5.85%	5.84%	5.83%	5.72%	6.36%	6.00%
Atlanta Falcons	0.19%	0.31%	0.52%	0.62%	0.96%	1.05%	1.49%	1.65%	1.93%	2.14%	2.51%	2.70%	3.07%	3.39%	3.73%	4.00%	4.43%	4.77%	5.09%	5.31%	5.94%	6.28%	6.50%	6.97%	6.35%	6.72%	5.75%	5.63%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.09%	0.16%	0.33%	0.45%	0.57%	0.74%	1.01%	1.16%	1.47%	1.43%	1.85%	1.95%	2.58%	2.56%	3.07%	3.18%	3.90%	4.12%	4.86%	5.08%	5.87%	6.57%	7.05%	7.97%	7.72%	9.41%	7.53%	7.33%
Dallas Cowboys	0.11%	0.19%	0.29%	0.41%	0.59%	0.67%	0.97%	1.06%	1.29%	1.50%	1.83%	1.99%	2.39%	2.67%	3.04%	3.35%	3.55%	3.96%	4.91%	5.10%	5.65%	6.02%	6.61%	6.84%	7.70%	7.98%	9.56%	9.78%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.05%	0.11%	0.17%	0.22%	0.38%	0.42%	0.63%	0.74%	0.88%	1.03%	1.22%	1.38%	1.73%	2.15%	2.32%	2.71%	3.02%	3.31%	4.10%	4.63%	5.23%	5.80%	6.69%	7.09%	9.24%	8.99%	12.31%	13.46%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.10%	0.16%	0.23%	0.31%	0.38%	0.45%	0.63%	0.76%	0.95%	1.18%	1.43%	1.67%	2.16%	2.48%	2.93%	3.38%	4.25%	4.98%	5.90%	7.02%	8.59%	10.59%	15.53%	23.77%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	28.33%	16.86%	10.29%	13.33%	9.30%	6.70%	15.18%
Miami Dolphins	16.34%	10.98%	7.21%	17.48%	12.30%	9.23%	26.46%
Kansas City Chiefs	12.23%	13.02%	9.27%	10.98%	10.25%	8.80%	35.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	11.24%	12.03%	8.29%	10.81%	9.84%	8.77%	39.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.01%	10.51%	16.55%	6.34%	8.11%	9.09%	42.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.51%	9.62%	15.11%	6.44%	8.42%	9.35%	44.55%
Houston Oilers	6.41%	9.11%	14.85%	5.83%	7.65%	9.02%	47.13%
San Diego Chargers	3.78%	5.62%	4.58%	7.42%	8.01%	8.26%	62.34%
Denver Broncos	2.98%	4.24%	3.76%	6.36%	7.10%	7.60%	67.95%
Seattle Seahawks	2.11%	3.44%	3.41%	4.99%	5.96%	6.74%	73.36%
Indianapolis Colts	1.42%	1.83%	1.88%	4.32%	5.06%	6.02%	79.47%
New York Jets	1.16%	1.51%	1.59%	3.70%	4.63%	5.45%	81.97%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.41%	1.04%	2.86%	1.51%	2.49%	3.57%	88.11%
New England Patriots	0.07%	0.19%	0.34%	0.48%	0.89%	1.39%	96.64%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	39.86%	24.43%	14.61%	7.10%	5.06%	3.30%	5.64%
New York Giants	24.13%	20.68%	12.07%	14.59%	9.06%	6.36%	13.12%
Chicago Bears	12.54%	18.70%	25.89%	6.20%	7.58%	7.18%	21.92%
Washington Redskins	6.94%	8.13%	5.94%	15.47%	11.87%	10.59%	41.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.56%	7.80%	5.68%	14.24%	12.40%	10.87%	43.45%
New Orleans Saints	3.10%	4.21%	3.91%	11.89%	12.35%	11.28%	53.27%
Minnesota Vikings	2.77%	5.50%	10.52%	6.14%	8.11%	9.31%	57.65%
Los Angeles Rams	2.03%	2.46%	2.59%	8.84%	9.44%	9.84%	64.80%
Green Bay Packers	1.14%	2.86%	6.97%	3.65%	6.05%	7.49%	71.83%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.51%	1.60%	4.39%	2.69%	4.52%	6.10%	80.20%
Detroit Lions	0.49%	1.62%	4.48%	2.53%	4.28%	5.99%	80.61%
Atlanta Falcons	0.47%	0.96%	1.38%	3.17%	4.50%	5.39%	84.12%
Dallas Cowboys	0.30%	0.66%	0.93%	2.11%	2.86%	3.70%	89.43%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.16%	0.38%	0.63%	1.39%	1.92%	2.60%	92.92%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+16.96%

Fortress

58.48%41.52%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 59.52 Elo pts.

20 Elo

0.051 points per Elo point

050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.58 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.02+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.6

Wide Open

124812

Champion Preseason Odds

14%

New York Giants, 3rd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

12.9%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.51 · As Expected: 1.51 to 2.08 · Elevated: 2.08 to 2.84 · High Variance: 2.84 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.63 · Close: 4.63 to 6.27 · Off Target: 6.27 to 8.18 · Well Off Target: 8.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.82 · As Expected: 2.82 to 4.69 · More Than Expected: 4.69 to 7.51 · Far More Than Expected: 7.51 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.89 wins

As Expected

01.895

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.57

Pinpoint

05.4515

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

97.39%

San Francisco 49ers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

1.55%

New England Patriots

050

Season Outliers

Expected

5 of 28

Several Outliers

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 12

Fewer Than Expected

03.812

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.78

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

93%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

24%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Routine

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Predictable

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.27

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.03

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.30

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

35%

As Expected

0%36%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.79

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.048

Within Noise

00.0930.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	86.15%	86.15%	59.89%	38.00%	22.17%
Buffalo Bills	72.28%	72.28%	47.35%	30.14%	16.40%
New York Giants	73.48%	73.48%	45.29%	24.73%	13.63%
Miami Dolphins	54.45%	54.45%	28.46%	14.91%	7.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	48.21%	48.21%	26.71%	13.66%	6.50%
Los Angeles Raiders	45.33%	45.33%	25.24%	13.11%	6.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	43.19%	39.51%	19.68%	9.43%	4.96%
Washington Redskins	43.87%	40.82%	19.75%	8.76%	4.37%
Chicago Bears	57.57%	57.57%	24.24%	9.34%	3.99%
Houston Oilers	37.35%	36.41%	17.84%	8.15%	3.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.09%	37.20%	15.80%	6.39%	2.48%
Cincinnati Bengals	39.31%	34.29%	13.83%	5.22%	1.91%
New Orleans Saints	39.42%	24.65%	9.10%	3.33%	1.39%
Seattle Seahawks	21.09%	15.39%	6.68%	2.72%	1.13%
Minnesota Vikings	34.08%	23.51%	8.15%	2.77%	1.10%
San Diego Chargers	28.27%	20.20%	7.22%	2.44%	0.79%
Denver Broncos	24.83%	15.87%	5.30%	1.64%	0.49%
Los Angeles Rams	30.71%	14.78%	4.03%	1.11%	0.37%
Indianapolis Colts	17.29%	9.37%	3.12%	1.05%	0.32%
Detroit Lions	17.28%	8.63%	2.50%	0.75%	0.28%
Green Bay Packers	24.16%	11.63%	2.78%	0.68%	0.20%
Atlanta Falcons	14.45%	5.71%	1.41%	0.37%	0.12%
New York Jets	15.36%	6.78%	1.74%	0.45%	0.11%
Dallas Cowboys	9.61%	3.97%	1.04%	0.27%	0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.69%	7.25%	1.59%	0.35%	0.10%
Phoenix Cardinals	6.54%	2.35%	0.53%	0.11%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.44%	3.55%	0.62%	0.11%	0.01%
New England Patriots	3.10%	0.68%	0.09%	0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		71.3%3.85%	90.2%1.10%	78.1%3.27%	63.2%3.74%	77.9%1.79%	58.9%5.02%	59.4%4.81%	59.6%4.11%	93.4%0.32%	84.1%1.56%	68.2%3.77%	75.6%3.70%	69.1%2.60%
Cincinnati Bengals	28.7%3.85%		78.5%1.09%	60.8%2.67%	42.4%4.73%	62.1%1.80%	36.8%4.02%	36.9%3.87%	38.0%4.76%	82.7%0.31%	69.7%1.65%	46.9%5.32%	57.0%3.00%	49.6%2.25%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.8%1.10%	21.5%1.09%		35.1%0.61%	16.5%0.99%	27.2%0.45%	14.7%1.09%	14.7%1.02%	14.1%1.16%	61.3%0.07%	41.9%0.38%	20.9%1.14%	28.6%0.75%	21.0%0.59%
Denver Broncos	21.9%3.27%	39.2%2.67%	64.9%0.61%		31.1%2.51%	48.0%1.08%	28.3%2.41%	28.1%2.10%	28.9%3.83%	77.2%0.19%	60.5%1.11%	36.4%2.67%	46.2%1.40%	37.4%0.97%
Houston Oilers	36.8%3.74%	57.6%4.73%	83.5%0.99%	68.9%2.51%		70.8%1.72%	47.8%3.81%	46.7%3.68%	47.0%4.31%	90.5%0.35%	78.8%1.58%	56.7%4.93%	65.7%2.90%	57.2%2.11%
Indianapolis Colts	22.1%1.79%	37.9%1.80%	72.8%0.45%	52.0%1.08%	29.2%1.72%		28.4%2.00%	28.9%1.99%	28.9%1.72%	75.0%0.06%	65.3%0.33%	37.4%1.96%	46.2%1.38%	38.0%1.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.1%5.02%	63.2%4.02%	85.3%1.09%	71.7%2.41%	52.2%3.81%	71.6%2.00%		49.3%3.88%	50.2%6.16%	90.8%0.36%	79.1%1.78%	60.7%4.10%	68.8%2.65%	60.7%2.02%
Los Angeles Raiders	40.6%4.81%	63.1%3.87%	85.3%1.02%	71.9%2.10%	53.3%3.68%	71.1%1.99%	50.7%3.88%		49.4%6.06%	91.7%0.36%	77.7%1.71%	62.5%3.81%	68.5%2.55%	61.6%1.87%
Miami Dolphins	40.4%4.11%	62.0%4.76%	85.9%1.16%	71.1%3.83%	53.0%4.31%	71.1%1.72%	49.8%6.16%	50.6%6.06%		90.9%0.25%	78.9%1.49%	59.4%4.75%	66.4%4.43%	62.3%3.17%
New England Patriots	6.6%0.32%	17.3%0.31%	38.7%0.07%	22.8%0.19%	9.5%0.35%	25.0%0.06%	9.2%0.36%	8.3%0.36%	9.1%0.25%		36.8%0.06%	14.3%0.37%	19.1%0.24%	10.8%0.17%
New York Jets	15.9%1.56%	30.3%1.65%	58.1%0.38%	39.5%1.11%	21.2%1.58%	34.7%0.33%	20.9%1.78%	22.3%1.71%	21.1%1.49%	63.2%0.06%		28.1%1.74%	38.1%1.06%	28.7%0.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.8%3.77%	53.1%5.32%	79.1%1.14%	63.6%2.67%	43.3%4.93%	62.6%1.96%	39.3%4.10%	37.5%3.81%	40.6%4.75%	85.7%0.37%	71.9%1.74%		62.1%3.15%	50.7%2.37%
San Diego Chargers	24.4%3.70%	43.0%3.00%	71.4%0.75%	53.8%1.40%	34.3%2.90%	53.8%1.38%	31.2%2.65%	31.5%2.55%	33.6%4.43%	80.9%0.24%	61.9%1.06%	37.9%3.15%		40.0%1.06%
Seattle Seahawks	30.9%2.60%	50.4%2.25%	79.0%0.59%	62.6%0.97%	42.8%2.11%	62.0%1.02%	39.3%2.02%	38.4%1.87%	37.7%3.17%	89.2%0.17%	71.3%0.90%	49.3%2.37%	60.0%1.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		28.5%2.14%	52.9%0.33%	38.8%0.59%	47.5%0.84%	45.4%0.48%	37.2%1.29%	33.3%0.78%	18.7%2.02%	21.6%1.75%	53.8%0.21%	16.8%1.47%	50.3%0.60%	25.0%1.94%
Chicago Bears	71.5%2.14%		70.1%1.41%	64.9%2.91%	69.5%4.04%	68.8%4.28%	57.5%5.61%	57.0%4.98%	35.5%4.09%	43.0%5.41%	77.7%1.04%	31.8%2.24%	73.9%3.08%	45.1%5.63%
Dallas Cowboys	47.1%0.33%	29.9%1.41%		40.9%0.41%	50.2%0.66%	44.7%0.75%	34.2%0.92%	33.4%1.01%	19.4%1.18%	23.2%0.80%	48.4%0.06%	14.4%0.97%	54.0%0.35%	22.8%0.76%
Detroit Lions	61.2%0.59%	35.1%2.91%	59.1%0.41%		54.1%0.83%	52.7%1.33%	43.9%1.21%	43.6%1.62%	23.0%2.09%	28.1%2.00%	62.3%0.28%	18.8%1.44%	58.8%0.57%	34.1%2.02%
Green Bay Packers	52.5%0.84%	30.5%4.04%	49.8%0.66%	45.9%0.83%		45.7%1.83%	36.3%1.87%	35.1%2.45%	20.6%2.81%	23.7%2.83%	58.4%0.38%	13.0%1.87%	52.1%0.84%	24.5%2.92%
Los Angeles Rams	54.6%0.48%	31.2%4.28%	55.3%0.75%	47.3%1.33%	54.3%1.83%		38.8%2.79%	39.1%1.92%	21.5%4.40%	27.4%4.08%	59.9%0.59%	17.4%2.66%	56.8%1.31%	28.1%4.30%
Minnesota Vikings	62.8%1.29%	42.5%5.61%	65.8%0.92%	56.1%1.21%	63.7%1.87%	61.2%2.79%		50.4%3.36%	29.4%4.00%	35.7%4.23%	71.8%0.68%	24.6%2.62%	66.1%1.25%	35.8%4.26%
New Orleans Saints	66.7%0.78%	43.0%4.98%	66.6%1.01%	56.4%1.62%	64.9%2.45%	60.9%1.92%	49.6%3.36%		30.7%5.89%	37.9%5.91%	69.6%0.66%	25.6%3.55%	64.4%1.68%	38.7%5.61%
New York Giants	81.3%2.02%	64.5%4.09%	80.6%1.18%	77.0%2.09%	79.4%2.81%	78.5%4.40%	70.6%4.00%	69.3%5.89%		56.3%4.85%	84.3%0.73%	43.7%3.05%	81.3%2.12%	58.6%4.86%
Philadelphia Eagles	78.4%1.75%	57.0%5.41%	76.8%0.80%	71.9%2.00%	76.3%2.83%	72.6%4.08%	64.3%4.23%	62.1%5.91%	43.7%4.85%		81.1%0.46%	37.1%3.99%	78.0%2.05%	52.8%4.83%
Phoenix Cardinals	46.2%0.21%	22.3%1.04%	51.6%0.06%	37.7%0.28%	41.6%0.38%	40.1%0.59%	28.2%0.68%	30.4%0.66%	15.7%0.73%	18.9%0.46%		13.9%0.63%	48.9%0.32%	21.9%0.50%
San Francisco 49ers	83.2%1.47%	68.2%2.24%	85.6%0.97%	81.2%1.44%	87.0%1.87%	82.6%2.66%	75.4%2.62%	74.4%3.55%	56.3%3.05%	62.9%3.99%	86.1%0.63%		86.7%1.43%	64.1%4.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	49.7%0.60%	26.1%3.08%	46.0%0.35%	41.2%0.57%	47.9%0.84%	43.2%1.31%	33.9%1.25%	35.6%1.68%	18.7%2.12%	22.0%2.05%	51.1%0.32%	13.3%1.43%		21.3%2.09%
Washington Redskins	75.0%1.94%	54.9%5.63%	77.2%0.76%	65.9%2.02%	75.5%2.92%	71.9%4.30%	64.2%4.26%	61.3%5.61%	41.4%4.86%	47.2%4.83%	78.1%0.50%	35.9%4.15%	78.7%2.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		70.8%7.06%	88.0%0.77%	77.3%3.12%	63.9%7.59%	76.4%2.18%	58.8%9.32%	58.8%8.73%	59.9%16.67%	95.3%0.15%	82.8%1.60%	68.7%7.85%	75.5%3.98%	70.0%3.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.2%7.06%		79.0%0.20%	58.4%1.66%	41.8%2.64%	57.1%0.80%	36.8%5.38%	36.7%4.76%	37.6%4.92%	82.5%0.06%	65.0%0.59%	48.4%2.72%	53.5%2.02%	45.9%1.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.0%0.77%	21.0%0.20%		31.5%0.13%	16.7%0.21%	20.7%0.09%	14.4%0.49%	15.2%0.53%	17.1%0.51%	53.8%0.01%	32.7%0.05%	17.9%0.19%	29.9%0.21%	18.9%0.15%
Denver Broncos	22.7%3.12%	41.6%1.66%	68.5%0.13%		33.2%1.73%	45.2%0.30%	30.7%2.07%	29.9%1.79%	29.8%2.08%	65.4%0.03%	57.9%0.24%	40.9%1.68%	47.2%0.59%	42.4%0.45%
Houston Oilers	36.1%7.59%	58.2%2.64%	83.3%0.21%	66.8%1.73%		65.4%0.79%	44.9%5.42%	44.2%5.35%	46.3%5.33%	88.9%0.09%	72.1%0.66%	57.4%2.88%	63.9%2.18%	54.8%1.55%
Indianapolis Colts	23.6%2.18%	42.9%0.80%	79.3%0.09%	54.8%0.30%	34.6%0.79%		29.8%1.06%	27.7%1.12%	32.1%1.27%	85.7%<0.01%	59.6%0.09%	38.1%0.95%	44.7%0.41%	39.6%0.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.2%9.32%	63.2%5.38%	85.6%0.49%	69.3%2.07%	55.1%5.42%	70.2%1.06%		50.3%6.83%	51.7%6.65%	87.0%0.08%	77.1%0.79%	60.5%5.81%	67.9%2.50%	62.0%1.81%
Los Angeles Raiders	41.2%8.73%	63.3%4.76%	84.8%0.53%	70.1%1.79%	55.8%5.35%	72.3%1.12%	49.7%6.83%		51.6%6.11%	90.9%0.07%	78.8%0.79%	62.1%5.19%	69.3%2.41%	60.4%1.66%
Miami Dolphins	40.1%16.67%	62.4%4.92%	82.9%0.51%	70.2%2.08%	53.7%5.33%	67.9%1.27%	48.3%6.65%	48.4%6.11%		91.4%0.08%	78.4%0.84%	60.0%5.21%	68.1%2.75%	59.0%2.03%
New England Patriots	4.7%0.15%	17.5%0.06%	46.2%0.01%	34.6%0.03%	11.1%0.09%	14.3%<0.01%	13.0%0.08%	9.1%0.07%	8.6%0.08%		50.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.07%	26.1%0.02%	23.1%0.01%
New York Jets	17.2%1.60%	35.0%0.59%	67.3%0.05%	42.1%0.24%	27.9%0.66%	40.4%0.09%	22.9%0.79%	21.2%0.79%	21.6%0.84%	50.0%<0.01%		32.8%0.63%	36.4%0.26%	30.2%0.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.3%7.85%	51.6%2.72%	82.1%0.19%	59.1%1.68%	42.6%2.88%	61.9%0.95%	39.5%5.81%	37.9%5.19%	40.0%5.21%	85.7%0.07%	67.2%0.63%		56.6%2.21%	49.7%1.80%
San Diego Chargers	24.5%3.98%	46.5%2.02%	70.1%0.21%	52.8%0.59%	36.1%2.18%	55.3%0.41%	32.1%2.50%	30.7%2.41%	31.9%2.75%	73.9%0.02%	63.6%0.26%	43.4%2.21%		41.4%0.65%
Seattle Seahawks	30.0%3.26%	54.1%1.47%	81.1%0.15%	57.6%0.45%	45.2%1.55%	60.4%0.29%	38.0%1.81%	39.6%1.66%	41.0%2.03%	76.9%0.01%	69.8%0.25%	50.3%1.80%	58.6%0.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.2%0.87%	32.3%0.03%	48.3%0.09%	50.0%0.14%	48.2%0.08%	35.4%0.32%	38.4%0.15%	21.0%1.23%	24.6%0.35%	68.8%0.02%	15.9%1.92%	53.8%0.08%	26.2%0.43%
Chicago Bears	69.8%0.87%		68.1%0.71%	63.2%0.87%	69.1%1.23%	65.7%2.16%	58.9%2.82%	53.7%4.06%	34.8%14.22%	42.3%7.13%	69.8%0.38%	30.6%15.50%	68.7%0.71%	43.8%6.91%
Dallas Cowboys	67.7%0.03%	31.9%0.71%		51.6%0.06%	67.9%0.11%	48.8%0.09%	40.8%0.22%	38.8%0.12%	19.6%0.88%	25.5%0.22%	62.5%<0.01%	16.7%1.24%	47.2%0.04%	21.3%0.24%
Detroit Lions	51.7%0.09%	36.8%0.87%	48.4%0.06%		55.2%0.10%	56.9%0.25%	45.4%0.22%	37.4%0.34%	24.9%2.12%	28.8%0.76%	66.7%0.04%	20.8%2.94%	64.2%0.05%	33.4%0.80%
Green Bay Packers	50.0%0.14%	30.9%1.23%	32.1%0.11%	44.8%0.10%		44.8%0.34%	37.2%0.35%	35.9%0.64%	19.5%2.77%	21.0%1.01%	52.9%0.05%	16.9%3.69%	52.7%0.07%	26.8%1.13%
Los Angeles Rams	51.8%0.08%	34.3%2.16%	51.2%0.09%	43.1%0.25%	55.2%0.34%		40.8%0.75%	37.6%0.45%	23.0%2.96%	28.7%0.99%	47.1%0.05%	18.9%5.25%	53.5%0.20%	28.8%1.20%
Minnesota Vikings	64.6%0.32%	41.1%2.82%	59.2%0.22%	54.6%0.22%	62.8%0.35%	59.2%0.75%		48.9%1.21%	29.7%5.58%	34.7%2.19%	69.2%0.15%	24.5%7.14%	61.9%0.19%	37.7%2.38%
New Orleans Saints	61.6%0.15%	46.3%4.06%	61.2%0.12%	62.6%0.34%	64.1%0.64%	62.4%0.45%	51.1%1.21%		31.5%5.07%	37.4%1.77%	62.4%0.10%	27.1%8.59%	68.8%0.32%	36.3%1.83%
New York Giants	79.0%1.23%	65.2%14.22%	80.4%0.88%	75.1%2.12%	80.5%2.77%	77.0%2.96%	70.3%5.58%	68.5%5.07%		57.8%10.18%	80.9%0.49%	43.4%15.34%	82.7%1.76%	59.2%10.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	75.4%0.35%	57.7%7.13%	74.5%0.22%	71.2%0.76%	79.0%1.01%	71.3%0.99%	65.3%2.19%	62.6%1.77%	42.2%10.18%		83.0%0.11%	36.6%10.71%	77.8%0.67%	50.5%3.42%
Phoenix Cardinals	31.2%0.02%	30.2%0.38%	37.5%<0.01%	33.3%0.04%	47.1%0.05%	52.9%0.05%	30.8%0.15%	37.6%0.10%	19.1%0.49%	17.0%0.11%		12.4%0.77%	46.5%0.04%	24.6%0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	84.1%1.92%	69.4%15.50%	83.3%1.24%	79.2%2.94%	83.1%3.69%	81.1%5.25%	75.5%7.14%	72.9%8.59%	56.6%15.34%	63.4%10.71%	87.6%0.77%		85.4%2.37%	65.6%10.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	46.2%0.08%	31.3%0.71%	52.8%0.04%	35.8%0.05%	47.3%0.07%	46.5%0.20%	38.1%0.19%	31.2%0.32%	17.3%1.76%	22.2%0.67%	53.5%0.04%	14.6%2.37%		23.1%0.74%
Washington Redskins	73.8%0.43%	56.2%6.91%	78.7%0.24%	66.6%0.80%	73.2%1.13%	71.2%1.20%	62.3%2.38%	63.7%1.83%	40.8%10.88%	49.5%3.42%	75.4%0.14%	34.4%10.70%	76.9%0.74%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		69.5%4.52%	87.7%0.19%	77.3%1.75%	62.7%5.67%	78.1%0.56%	58.7%9.48%	58.0%8.82%	58.8%6.05%	100.0%0.01%	81.2%0.36%	67.6%5.19%	74.0%2.52%	70.3%2.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	30.5%4.52%		75.0%0.02%	58.9%0.37%	46.4%0.73%	55.7%0.24%	35.6%1.98%	35.0%1.82%	38.0%2.54%	100.0%<0.01%	67.3%0.11%	48.5%0.61%	56.0%0.46%	46.3%0.43%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.3%0.19%	25.0%0.02%		16.7%0.01%	12.5%0.03%	30.0%0.01%	25.4%0.07%	16.3%0.10%	18.8%0.10%		50.0%<0.01%	16.1%0.03%	42.3%0.03%	33.3%0.02%
Denver Broncos	22.7%1.75%	41.1%0.37%	83.3%0.01%		31.9%0.52%	41.6%0.10%	32.1%0.46%	32.5%0.42%	30.3%0.97%	75.0%<0.01%	56.5%0.05%	39.1%0.41%	50.9%0.11%	35.8%0.12%
Houston Oilers	37.3%5.67%	53.6%0.73%	87.5%0.03%	68.1%0.52%		62.8%0.32%	44.7%2.54%	44.6%2.60%	45.6%3.24%	66.7%<0.01%	69.5%0.17%	57.1%0.87%	61.4%0.58%	56.0%0.57%
Indianapolis Colts	21.9%0.56%	44.3%0.24%	70.0%0.01%	58.4%0.10%	37.2%0.32%		27.9%0.51%	31.2%0.51%	36.3%0.33%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%	39.0%0.28%	44.1%0.13%	34.9%0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.3%9.48%	64.4%1.98%	74.6%0.07%	67.9%0.46%	55.3%2.54%	72.1%0.51%		48.5%2.59%	51.4%5.16%	93.3%0.01%	79.1%0.32%	59.2%2.31%	65.4%0.66%	57.6%0.63%
Los Angeles Raiders	42.0%8.82%	65.0%1.82%	83.7%0.10%	67.5%0.42%	55.4%2.60%	68.8%0.51%	51.5%2.59%		51.1%4.70%	75.0%0.02%	76.4%0.28%	60.8%2.15%	67.0%0.64%	61.0%0.61%
Miami Dolphins	41.2%6.05%	62.0%2.54%	81.2%0.10%	69.7%0.97%	54.4%3.24%	63.7%0.33%	48.6%5.16%	48.9%4.70%		100.0%<0.01%	74.9%0.17%	58.8%2.70%	67.6%1.32%	59.2%1.18%
New England Patriots	0.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	6.7%0.01%	25.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
New York Jets	18.8%0.36%	32.7%0.11%	50.0%<0.01%	43.5%0.05%	30.5%0.17%	33.3%0.01%	20.9%0.32%	23.6%0.28%	25.1%0.17%	0.0%<0.01%		35.2%0.14%	38.5%0.07%	28.6%0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.4%5.19%	51.5%0.61%	83.9%0.03%	60.9%0.41%	42.9%0.87%	61.0%0.28%	40.8%2.31%	39.2%2.15%	41.2%2.70%	83.3%<0.01%	64.8%0.14%		56.7%0.56%	48.0%0.55%
San Diego Chargers	26.0%2.52%	44.0%0.46%	57.7%0.03%	49.1%0.11%	38.6%0.58%	55.9%0.13%	34.6%0.66%	33.0%0.64%	32.4%1.32%	75.0%<0.01%	61.5%0.07%	43.3%0.56%		42.7%0.15%
Seattle Seahawks	29.7%2.22%	53.7%0.43%	66.7%0.02%	64.2%0.12%	44.0%0.57%	65.1%0.13%	42.4%0.63%	39.0%0.61%	40.8%1.18%	66.7%<0.01%	71.4%0.07%	52.0%0.55%	57.3%0.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.4%0.15%	66.7%<0.01%	30.0%0.03%	39.1%0.02%	33.3%0.01%	35.5%0.06%	25.0%0.04%	23.2%0.41%	29.2%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	20.4%0.35%	77.8%<0.01%	27.3%0.15%
Chicago Bears	69.6%0.15%		63.9%0.12%	56.3%0.20%	62.3%0.19%	67.8%0.44%	57.4%0.62%	54.4%1.11%	35.7%6.37%	43.5%2.46%	71.7%0.06%	30.8%9.96%	66.7%0.12%	46.4%2.43%
Dallas Cowboys	33.3%<0.01%	36.1%0.12%		57.1%0.01%	33.3%0.01%	40.0%0.02%	50.0%0.04%	38.6%0.04%	22.1%0.20%	29.0%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	17.5%0.43%	28.6%<0.01%	28.6%0.08%
Detroit Lions	70.0%0.03%	43.7%0.20%	42.9%0.01%		22.2%<0.01%	57.8%0.04%	37.5%0.05%	43.2%0.11%	27.5%0.62%	27.7%0.27%	75.0%<0.01%	22.5%0.92%	61.5%0.01%	35.0%0.21%
Green Bay Packers	60.9%0.02%	37.7%0.19%	66.7%0.01%	77.8%<0.01%		42.4%0.03%	42.5%0.04%	37.9%0.12%	22.6%0.71%	25.7%0.32%	80.0%0.01%	16.8%1.03%	33.3%<0.01%	28.3%0.29%
Los Angeles Rams	66.7%0.01%	32.2%0.44%	60.0%0.02%	42.2%0.04%	57.6%0.03%		38.5%0.19%	37.9%0.10%	23.2%1.15%	30.0%0.42%	28.6%<0.01%	20.6%1.05%	58.3%0.02%	32.4%0.53%
Minnesota Vikings	64.5%0.06%	42.6%0.62%	50.0%0.04%	62.5%0.05%	57.5%0.04%	61.5%0.19%		49.3%0.36%	30.8%2.07%	34.8%0.79%	69.6%0.02%	26.7%3.06%	65.5%0.03%	40.8%0.82%
New Orleans Saints	75.0%0.04%	45.6%1.11%	61.4%0.04%	56.8%0.11%	62.1%0.12%	62.1%0.10%	50.7%0.36%		32.8%2.65%	36.9%1.06%	73.1%0.03%	28.6%2.46%	76.4%0.06%	37.7%0.97%
New York Giants	76.8%0.41%	64.3%6.37%	77.9%0.20%	72.5%0.62%	77.4%0.71%	76.8%1.15%	69.2%2.07%	67.2%2.65%		55.1%3.91%	81.8%0.11%	44.6%22.67%	80.5%0.43%	59.3%4.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	70.8%0.16%	56.5%2.46%	71.0%0.06%	72.3%0.27%	74.3%0.32%	70.0%0.42%	65.2%0.79%	63.1%1.06%	44.9%3.91%		76.7%0.04%	38.1%8.56%	74.9%0.17%	54.8%1.47%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.0%<0.01%	28.3%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	30.4%0.02%	26.9%0.03%	18.2%0.11%	23.3%0.04%		14.7%0.22%	40.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	79.6%0.35%	69.2%9.96%	82.5%0.43%	77.5%0.92%	83.2%1.03%	79.4%1.05%	73.3%3.06%	71.4%2.46%	55.4%22.67%	61.9%8.56%	85.3%0.22%		83.5%0.57%	64.4%8.61%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	22.2%<0.01%	33.3%0.12%	71.4%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	41.7%0.02%	34.5%0.03%	23.6%0.06%	19.5%0.43%	25.1%0.17%	60.0%<0.01%	16.5%0.57%		23.5%0.15%
Washington Redskins	72.7%0.15%	53.6%2.43%	71.4%0.08%	65.0%0.21%	71.7%0.29%	67.6%0.53%	59.2%0.82%	62.3%0.97%	40.7%4.00%	45.2%1.47%	66.7%0.02%	35.6%8.61%	76.5%0.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	76.4%0.12%	63.9%2.94%	60.5%0.08%	72.6%0.23%	76.6%0.22%	77.0%0.32%	69.0%0.85%	63.9%1.04%	52.3%7.36%	55.4%2.79%	80.0%0.03%	48.7%11.46%	81.2%0.10%	56.8%2.60%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.5%0.02%	48.3%0.49%	69.2%0.01%	59.0%0.04%	73.8%0.04%	54.7%0.06%	50.3%0.15%	48.1%0.16%	35.5%1.34%	34.1%0.52%	40.0%0.01%	30.5%1.94%	61.5%0.01%	36.5%0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	16.1%0.03%	6.7%0.01%		10.8%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	50.0%<0.01%	40.9%0.14%	75.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	30.2%0.04%	32.6%0.05%	26.7%0.44%	27.0%0.16%	50.0%<0.01%	28.3%0.61%	60.0%<0.01%	32.6%0.14%
Houston Oilers	70.0%0.02%	52.8%0.76%	56.7%0.03%	58.7%0.06%	68.3%0.06%	57.0%0.10%	60.1%0.22%	56.6%0.27%	42.3%1.99%	44.2%0.80%	87.5%<0.01%	39.9%3.07%	75.8%0.03%	45.5%0.73%
Indianapolis Colts	40.0%<0.01%	36.5%0.11%	0.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	60.0%0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	37.9%0.03%	42.1%0.04%	24.9%0.27%	27.5%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	26.8%0.38%	100.0%<0.01%	37.9%0.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.7%0.04%	58.5%1.25%	65.1%0.04%	56.8%0.09%	71.8%0.08%	66.2%0.14%	58.9%0.35%	59.0%0.45%	45.9%3.33%	49.4%1.27%	73.3%0.01%	41.3%5.27%	70.7%0.06%	51.6%1.25%
Los Angeles Raiders	65.9%0.04%	60.2%1.23%	64.7%0.03%	61.1%0.10%	65.2%0.09%	66.2%0.16%	56.8%0.38%	62.2%0.41%	47.5%3.27%	49.2%1.21%	80.0%0.02%	41.9%4.97%	63.6%0.06%	49.5%1.13%
Miami Dolphins	71.2%0.07%	57.3%1.40%	69.2%0.04%	66.1%0.11%	70.2%0.09%	67.1%0.16%	60.1%0.40%	58.8%0.49%	44.8%3.65%	47.6%1.38%	53.3%0.01%	41.7%5.70%	74.4%0.04%	52.2%1.36%
New England Patriots		0.0%<0.01%							0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%0.01%
New York Jets	50.0%<0.01%	34.6%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%	38.9%0.02%	22.0%0.13%	13.7%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	19.6%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.6%0.02%	47.8%0.54%	64.3%0.01%	46.2%0.05%	72.7%0.04%	62.3%0.08%	51.1%0.18%	52.4%0.21%	36.3%1.60%	36.1%0.64%	0.0%<0.01%	34.4%2.44%	44.4%0.02%	43.2%0.55%
San Diego Chargers	44.4%<0.01%	42.0%0.23%	75.0%<0.01%	35.3%0.02%	57.1%0.01%	36.7%0.03%	60.3%0.07%	41.4%0.09%	26.6%0.62%	36.0%0.25%	66.7%<0.01%	27.7%0.89%	71.4%<0.01%	34.4%0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	50.0%<0.01%	48.2%0.22%	71.4%<0.01%	63.0%0.03%	58.3%0.01%	70.8%0.02%	57.8%0.08%	55.2%0.10%	35.7%0.70%	44.4%0.25%	50.0%<0.01%	37.6%1.05%	75.0%0.01%	45.6%0.24%
Atlanta Falcons															23.6%0.12%	45.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	30.0%0.02%	60.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.04%	34.1%0.04%	28.8%0.07%		50.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.02%	55.6%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears															36.1%2.94%	51.7%0.49%	88.9%<0.01%	59.1%0.14%	47.2%0.76%	63.5%0.11%	41.5%1.25%	39.8%1.23%	42.7%1.40%	100.0%<0.01%	65.4%0.03%	52.2%0.54%	58.0%0.23%	51.8%0.22%
Dallas Cowboys															39.5%0.08%	30.8%0.01%		25.0%<0.01%	43.3%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	34.9%0.04%	35.3%0.03%	30.8%0.04%		100.0%<0.01%	35.7%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%
Detroit Lions															27.4%0.23%	41.0%0.04%		83.3%0.01%	41.3%0.06%	42.9%0.01%	43.2%0.09%	38.9%0.10%	33.9%0.11%		50.0%<0.01%	53.8%0.05%	64.7%0.02%	37.0%0.03%
Green Bay Packers															23.4%0.22%	26.2%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	31.7%0.06%	40.0%0.01%	28.2%0.08%	34.8%0.09%	29.8%0.09%		75.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.04%	42.9%0.01%	41.7%0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															23.0%0.32%	45.3%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	43.0%0.10%	44.4%<0.01%	33.8%0.14%	33.8%0.16%	32.9%0.16%		50.0%<0.01%	37.7%0.08%	63.3%0.03%	29.2%0.02%
Minnesota Vikings															31.0%0.85%	49.7%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	69.8%0.04%	39.9%0.22%	62.1%0.03%	41.1%0.35%	43.2%0.38%	39.9%0.40%		60.0%0.01%	48.9%0.18%	39.7%0.07%	42.2%0.08%
New Orleans Saints															36.1%1.04%	51.9%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	67.4%0.05%	43.4%0.27%	57.9%0.04%	41.0%0.45%	37.8%0.41%	41.2%0.49%		61.1%0.02%	47.6%0.21%	58.6%0.09%	44.8%0.10%
New York Giants															47.7%7.36%	64.5%1.34%	83.9%0.03%	73.3%0.44%	57.7%1.99%	75.1%0.27%	54.1%3.33%	52.5%3.27%	55.2%3.65%	100.0%<0.01%	78.0%0.13%	63.7%1.60%	73.4%0.62%	64.3%0.70%
Philadelphia Eagles															44.6%2.79%	65.9%0.52%	93.3%0.01%	73.0%0.16%	55.8%0.80%	72.5%0.09%	50.6%1.27%	50.8%1.21%	52.4%1.38%	100.0%<0.01%	86.3%0.05%	63.9%0.64%	64.0%0.25%	55.6%0.25%
Phoenix Cardinals															20.0%0.03%	60.0%0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.01%	20.0%0.02%	46.7%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers															51.3%11.46%	69.5%1.94%	89.2%0.04%	71.7%0.61%	60.1%3.07%	73.2%0.38%	58.7%5.27%	58.1%4.97%	58.3%5.70%	100.0%0.01%	80.4%0.16%	65.6%2.44%	72.3%0.89%	62.4%1.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															18.8%0.10%	38.5%0.01%		40.0%<0.01%	24.2%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	29.3%0.06%	36.4%0.06%	25.6%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.02%	28.6%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%
Washington Redskins															43.2%2.60%	63.5%0.42%	100.0%<0.01%	67.4%0.14%	54.5%0.73%	62.1%0.09%	48.4%1.25%	50.5%1.13%	47.8%1.36%		60.0%0.04%	56.8%0.55%	65.6%0.21%	54.4%0.24%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	68.83%	44.34%	24.51%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	65.44%	43.32%	21.90%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New York Giants	100.00%	66.62%	29.77%	15.44%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	61.94%	25.71%	11.47%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	60.89%	22.34%	10.04%	5.27%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	57.61%	22.69%	10.51%	4.92%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	42.39%	17.47%	8.39%	4.09%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	50.80%	16.75%	6.80%	3.14%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Redskins	39.11%	14.12%	6.19%	3.07%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	61.08%	18.16%	6.49%	2.79%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	49.20%	15.70%	5.27%	2.03%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints	38.92%	9.92%	3.17%	1.36%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals		49.2%100.00%
Houston Oilers	50.8%100.00%
Kansas City Chiefs				42.4%100.00%
Miami Dolphins			57.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		61.1%100.00%
New Orleans Saints	38.9%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles				60.9%100.00%
Washington Redskins			39.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills			67.0%50.80%	62.7%20.92%		64.6%28.28%
Cincinnati Bengals					31.9%49.20%
Houston Oilers	33.0%50.80%
Kansas City Chiefs	37.3%20.92%				45.1%21.47%
Los Angeles Raiders		68.1%49.20%		54.9%21.47%		56.8%29.33%
Miami Dolphins	35.4%28.28%				43.2%29.33%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears			29.7%61.08%
New Orleans Saints					25.5%38.92%
New York Giants	70.3%61.08%			60.6%23.71%		61.4%15.21%
Philadelphia Eagles			39.4%23.71%		35.0%37.19%
San Francisco 49ers		74.5%38.92%		65.0%37.19%		65.5%23.89%
Washington Redskins			38.6%15.21%		34.5%23.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills		73.2%10.10%		61.9%6.44%	65.8%40.41%	62.8%8.49%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.8%10.10%			44.5%2.43%		46.8%3.17%
Houston Oilers				37.2%3.23%	42.9%9.33%	38.3%4.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	38.1%6.44%	55.5%2.43%	62.8%3.23%		47.6%5.36%
Los Angeles Raiders	34.2%40.41%		57.1%9.33%	52.4%5.36%		55.0%6.84%
Miami Dolphins	37.2%8.49%	53.2%3.17%	61.7%4.19%		45.0%6.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				47.8%3.85%	28.8%11.84%	50.2%2.47%
New Orleans Saints			31.7%6.04%	32.1%2.41%		32.9%1.47%
New York Giants		68.3%6.04%		58.2%9.16%	37.1%45.65%	58.4%5.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	52.2%3.85%	67.9%2.41%	41.8%9.16%		37.0%6.93%
San Francisco 49ers	71.2%11.84%		62.9%45.65%	63.0%6.93%		64.2%4.41%
Washington Redskins	49.8%2.47%	67.1%1.47%	41.6%5.78%		35.8%4.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills	59.5%2.82%	60.2%1.34%	50.5%13.00%	50.5%4.32%	48.0%19.19%	54.8%2.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.7%0.34%	50.6%0.17%	40.2%1.58%	35.5%0.55%	35.2%2.31%	38.3%0.33%
Houston Oilers	53.4%0.44%	50.6%0.23%	46.9%2.00%	47.6%0.69%	43.4%3.05%	50.6%0.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	54.0%0.55%	59.3%0.28%	49.9%2.48%	48.5%0.81%	46.3%3.74%	50.0%0.52%
Los Angeles Raiders	54.3%1.64%	54.1%0.85%	45.4%7.61%	45.5%2.62%	41.5%11.34%	46.6%1.65%
Miami Dolphins	60.7%0.69%	56.7%0.30%	48.2%3.08%	45.3%1.04%	43.2%4.71%	49.3%0.67%
Chicago Bears							40.5%2.82%	49.3%0.34%	46.6%0.44%	46.0%0.55%	45.7%1.64%	39.3%0.69%
New Orleans Saints							39.8%1.34%	49.4%0.17%	49.4%0.23%	40.7%0.28%	45.9%0.85%	43.3%0.30%
New York Giants							49.5%13.00%	59.8%1.58%	53.1%2.00%	50.1%2.48%	54.6%7.61%	51.8%3.08%
Philadelphia Eagles							49.5%4.32%	64.5%0.55%	52.4%0.69%	51.5%0.81%	54.5%2.62%	54.7%1.04%
San Francisco 49ers							52.0%19.19%	64.8%2.31%	56.6%3.05%	53.7%3.74%	58.5%11.34%	56.8%4.71%
Washington Redskins							45.2%2.65%	61.7%0.33%	49.4%0.39%	50.0%0.52%	53.4%1.65%	50.7%0.67%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 24.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

42.14%

Win Prob

74.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

64.74%

Win Prob

62.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.69%

Win Prob

51.99%

Buffalo Bills 21.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

52.04%

Win Prob

67.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

61.41%

Win Prob

65.83%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.06%

Win Prob

48.01%

New York Giants 15.44% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

64.42%

Win Prob

70.26%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.90%

Win Prob

37.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

41.66%

Win Prob

49.46%

Los Angeles Raiders 11.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

54.07%

Win Prob

68.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

53.72%

Win Prob

34.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.07%

Win Prob

41.54%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.27% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.89%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.21%

Win Prob

34.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

38.16%

Win Prob

41.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.58%

Win Prob

49.51%

Miami Dolphins 4.92% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.61%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

55.87%

Win Prob

43.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

30.04%

Win Prob

37.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.40%

Win Prob

43.19%

Kansas City Chiefs 4.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.39%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

55.39%

Win Prob

45.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

30.44%

Win Prob

47.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.31%

Win Prob

46.27%

Houston Oilers 3.14% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.80%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.97%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

58.77%

Win Prob

42.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.10%

Win Prob

43.37%

Washington Redskins 3.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.11%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.39%

Win Prob

34.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

38.76%

Win Prob

41.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

38.98%

Win Prob

45.22%

Chicago Bears 2.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

52.53%

Win Prob

28.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.92%

Win Prob

40.48%

Cincinnati Bengals 2.03% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.20%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

51.36%

Win Prob

26.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.16%

Win Prob

35.24%

New Orleans Saints 1.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

60.41%

Win Prob

31.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

39.00%

Win Prob

39.76%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1990-09-09	Houston Oilers	W 47-27	1443.44	1495.33	50.97%	48.78%	+31.38	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1474.82	1441.94	46.05%	53.70%	-17.53	1-1
1990-09-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-19	1457.29	1610.49	22.65%	77.16%	-7.98	1-2
1990-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 28-27	1449.31	1516.06	48.83%	50.91%	+7.32	2-2
1990-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 35-45	1456.63	1628.72	34.24%	65.53%	-15.58	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-44	1441.05	1484.22	35.53%	64.23%	-22.87	2-4
1990-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-17	1418.18	1549.89	39.64%	60.12%	+39.61	3-4
1990-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-21	1457.79	1529.82	31.83%	67.95%	-15.87	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-30	1441.92	1621.75	20.08%	79.75%	-7.08	3-6
1990-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1434.84	1554.76	41.27%	58.48%	-5.94	3-7
1990-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-10	1428.90	1497.84	32.21%	67.56%	-8.03	3-8
1990-12-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-23	1420.87	1366.15	49.18%	50.56%	-17.33	3-9
1990-12-09	Phoenix Cardinals	L 13-24	1403.54	1399.95	58.86%	40.90%	-28.07	3-10
1990-12-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1375.47	1317.95	49.58%	50.16%	-12.36	3-11
1990-12-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1363.11	1471.49	42.89%	56.86%	+21.64	4-11
1990-12-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-7	1384.75	1451.61	48.82%	50.93%	+31.93	5-11
1990-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-10	1524.02	1505.59	60.91%	38.85%	+22.37	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-30	1546.39	1498.20	48.24%	51.50%	-33.29	1-1
1990-09-24	@ New York Jets	W 30-7	1513.10	1457.05	49.37%	50.37%	+34.76	2-1
1990-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 29-28	1547.86	1534.76	60.17%	39.58%	+5.69	3-1
1990-10-07	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-24	1553.55	1573.53	55.54%	44.21%	+23.81	4-1
1990-10-21	New York Jets	W 30-27	1577.36	1403.16	79.22%	20.61%	+5.13	5-1
1990-10-28	@ New England Patriots	W 27-10	1582.49	1370.33	70.53%	29.26%	+17.36	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-0	1599.85	1426.83	65.65%	34.12%	+31.83	7-1
1990-11-11	Phoenix Cardinals	W 45-14	1631.68	1386.66	85.13%	14.73%	+11.80	8-1
1990-11-18	New England Patriots	W 14-0	1643.48	1324.06	89.77%	10.13%	+5.45	9-1
1990-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-27	1648.93	1531.25	58.16%	41.59%	-14.49	9-2
1990-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-23	1634.44	1597.29	63.44%	36.33%	+13.83	10-2
1990-12-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-7	1648.27	1450.21	68.82%	30.96%	+21.83	11-2
1990-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1670.10	1655.94	43.39%	56.36%	+16.22	12-2
1990-12-23	Miami Dolphins	W 24-14	1686.32	1606.52	68.91%	30.87%	+14.05	13-2
1990-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-29	1700.37	1562.85	60.91%	38.84%	-33.93	13-3
1990-09-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-0	1492.87	1482.15	59.85%	39.91%	+23.68	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-13	1516.55	1516.10	41.46%	58.29%	+35.57	2-0
1990-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-16	1552.12	1550.38	58.60%	41.15%	+10.26	3-0
1990-09-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-24	1562.38	1550.33	43.09%	56.66%	-23.20	3-1
1990-10-07	Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1539.18	1465.46	68.16%	31.62%	+17.03	4-1
1990-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-9	1556.21	1511.61	64.42%	35.34%	+27.39	5-1
1990-10-28	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-21	1583.60	1414.69	65.12%	34.65%	+15.77	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-6	1599.37	1431.32	65.00%	34.76%	+22.38	7-1
1990-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1621.75	1441.92	79.75%	20.08%	+7.08	8-1
1990-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1628.83	1473.09	63.38%	36.39%	+9.07	9-1
1990-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-41	1637.90	1510.18	59.56%	40.19%	-45.32	9-2
1990-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1592.58	1457.00	75.33%	24.47%	+8.62	10-2
1990-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-10	1601.20	1568.57	46.01%	53.73%	-6.62	10-3
1990-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1594.58	1431.89	64.30%	35.47%	-38.12	10-4
1990-12-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1556.46	1417.91	75.65%	24.16%	+12.54	11-4
1990-12-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-21	1569.00	1579.86	56.83%	42.92%	-27.11	11-5
1990-09-09	New York Jets	W 25-20	1525.92	1453.45	68.00%	31.77%	+10.22	1-0
1990-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-16	1536.14	1469.28	50.93%	48.82%	+15.71	2-0
1990-09-23	New England Patriots	W 41-7	1551.85	1472.82	68.82%	30.96%	+25.98	3-0
1990-10-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-31	1577.83	1436.33	61.46%	38.30%	-34.22	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-31	1543.61	1525.51	43.94%	55.81%	+13.90	4-1
1990-10-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-48	1557.51	1486.96	51.46%	48.29%	-41.22	4-2
1990-10-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-13	1516.29	1464.39	48.78%	50.97%	+33.60	5-2
1990-10-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-38	1549.89	1418.18	60.12%	39.64%	-39.61	5-3
1990-11-04	New Orleans Saints	L 7-21	1510.28	1460.52	65.10%	34.67%	-35.02	5-4
1990-11-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-3	1475.26	1545.69	48.30%	51.44%	+36.25	6-4
1990-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-34	1511.51	1425.78	69.64%	30.14%	-37.46	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1474.05	1535.99	33.10%	66.67%	+19.17	7-5
1990-12-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1493.22	1664.66	34.32%	65.44%	-8.55	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-24	1484.67	1570.47	30.13%	69.65%	-17.89	7-7
1990-12-23	Houston Oilers	W 40-20	1466.78	1590.00	40.82%	58.94%	+37.91	8-7
1990-12-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-14	1504.69	1315.49	80.60%	19.23%	+7.32	9-7
1990-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-3	1524.60	1501.67	61.52%	38.24%	+17.40	1-0
1990-09-16	@ New York Jets	L 21-24	1542.00	1443.22	55.50%	44.25%	-13.82	1-1
1990-09-23	San Diego Chargers	L 14-24	1528.18	1453.57	68.27%	31.51%	-31.04	1-2
1990-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-34	1497.14	1534.63	36.28%	63.48%	-30.45	1-3
1990-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-29	1466.69	1529.06	33.04%	66.73%	+9.59	2-3
1990-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-25	1476.28	1508.74	36.95%	62.81%	-11.89	2-4
1990-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-34	1464.39	1516.29	50.97%	48.78%	-33.60	2-5
1990-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1430.79	1660.23	15.89%	83.96%	-3.96	2-6
1990-11-04	Buffalo Bills	L 0-42	1426.83	1599.85	34.12%	65.65%	-31.83	2-7
1990-11-18	Houston Oilers	L 23-35	1395.00	1510.35	41.91%	57.84%	-20.89	2-8
1990-11-25	Miami Dolphins	L 13-30	1374.11	1604.72	27.11%	72.68%	-16.09	2-9
1990-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-38	1358.02	1485.48	40.23%	59.53%	-22.42	2-10
1990-12-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-58	1335.60	1533.28	18.48%	81.35%	-17.65	2-11
1990-12-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-10	1317.95	1375.47	50.16%	49.58%	+12.36	3-11
1990-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-35	1330.31	1540.75	17.41%	82.44%	-14.82	3-12
1990-12-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1315.49	1504.69	19.23%	80.60%	-7.32	3-13
1990-09-09	San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1437.03	1481.15	52.09%	47.66%	+11.88	1-0
1990-09-16	New York Giants	L 7-28	1448.91	1544.94	44.64%	55.11%	-29.44	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 15-19	1419.47	1534.68	26.70%	73.10%	-7.68	1-2
1990-09-30	@ New York Giants	L 17-31	1411.79	1595.48	19.73%	80.10%	-10.63	1-3
1990-10-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-10	1401.16	1481.83	46.83%	52.91%	+15.23	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 3-20	1416.39	1390.54	45.04%	54.70%	-26.73	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1389.66	1486.00	28.87%	70.91%	+20.39	3-4
1990-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-21	1410.05	1506.51	44.58%	55.17%	-6.42	3-5
1990-11-04	@ New York Jets	L 9-24	1403.63	1422.75	38.76%	61.00%	-21.60	3-6
1990-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-24	1382.03	1672.72	20.85%	78.98%	-12.73	3-7
1990-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1369.30	1462.35	29.26%	70.52%	+17.56	4-7
1990-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1386.86	1562.07	33.84%	65.93%	+29.98	5-7
1990-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1416.84	1505.87	45.64%	54.11%	+15.57	6-7
1990-12-16	Phoenix Cardinals	W 41-10	1432.41	1428.02	58.97%	40.79%	+32.68	7-7
1990-12-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1465.09	1595.48	25.03%	74.77%	-13.48	7-8
1990-12-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-26	1451.61	1384.75	50.93%	48.82%	-31.94	7-9
1990-09-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-14	1536.49	1498.21	46.82%	52.93%	-15.07	0-1
1990-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-23	1521.42	1510.83	59.83%	39.93%	+5.75	1-1
1990-09-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-31	1527.17	1443.92	69.34%	30.44%	+7.59	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-29	1534.76	1547.86	39.58%	60.17%	-5.70	2-2
1990-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 29-30	1529.06	1466.69	66.73%	33.04%	-9.59	2-3
1990-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-34	1519.47	1472.90	64.68%	35.08%	-38.35	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1481.12	1472.54	42.60%	57.15%	+26.00	3-4
1990-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1507.12	1453.80	48.98%	50.77%	-15.76	3-5
1990-11-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-19	1491.36	1526.13	36.64%	63.12%	-18.27	3-6
1990-11-18	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1473.09	1628.83	36.39%	63.38%	-9.07	3-7
1990-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-40	1464.02	1433.26	45.74%	54.00%	-23.74	3-8
1990-12-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1440.28	1543.10	43.68%	56.07%	-10.88	3-9
1990-12-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-31	1429.40	1596.83	21.25%	78.57%	-10.14	3-10
1990-12-16	San Diego Chargers	W 20-10	1419.26	1520.88	43.85%	55.90%	+25.42	4-10
1990-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1444.68	1505.95	33.18%	66.59%	-10.68	4-11
1990-12-30	Green Bay Packers	W 22-13	1434.00	1424.75	59.64%	40.11%	+17.32	5-11
1990-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-38	1478.53	1454.17	61.72%	38.04%	-36.59	0-1
1990-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1441.94	1474.82	53.70%	46.05%	+17.53	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1459.47	1454.31	42.12%	57.63%	-10.50	1-2
1990-09-30	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1448.97	1451.00	58.07%	41.68%	-14.46	1-3
1990-10-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-27	1434.51	1523.10	29.80%	69.98%	+26.62	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-43	1461.13	1548.70	29.92%	69.86%	-18.77	2-4
1990-10-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1442.36	1499.70	33.69%	66.08%	+39.17	3-4
1990-11-04	Washington Redskins	L 38-41	1481.53	1554.65	47.92%	51.83%	-11.94	3-5
1990-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-17	1469.59	1469.56	58.36%	41.39%	-26.54	3-6
1990-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 0-20	1443.05	1681.53	15.21%	84.65%	-9.79	3-7
1990-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 40-27	1433.26	1464.02	54.00%	45.74%	+23.74	4-7
1990-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1457.00	1592.58	24.47%	75.33%	-8.63	4-8
1990-12-10	Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-38	1448.37	1553.99	43.28%	56.47%	-16.48	4-9
1990-12-16	Chicago Bears	W 38-21	1431.89	1594.58	35.47%	64.30%	+38.12	5-9
1990-12-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1470.01	1445.65	44.83%	54.92%	+20.90	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-30	1490.91	1516.64	37.86%	61.90%	-24.37	6-10
1990-09-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 36-24	1492.37	1536.19	52.13%	47.62%	+23.73	1-0
1990-09-16	Chicago Bears	L 13-31	1516.10	1516.55	58.29%	41.46%	-35.56	1-1
1990-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-17	1480.54	1505.09	54.89%	44.86%	-29.54	1-2
1990-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1451.00	1448.97	41.68%	58.07%	+14.46	2-2
1990-10-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1465.46	1539.18	31.62%	68.16%	-17.02	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-26	1448.44	1466.61	38.89%	60.87%	-19.39	2-4
1990-10-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-10	1429.05	1479.99	51.11%	48.64%	+26.18	3-4
1990-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1455.23	1664.18	29.64%	70.14%	-8.53	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 29-16	1446.70	1578.99	24.82%	74.98%	+38.86	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-21	1485.56	1374.87	57.18%	42.57%	+10.61	5-5
1990-11-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1496.17	1378.16	73.41%	26.39%	+12.01	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-23	1508.18	1555.51	34.98%	64.78%	-20.14	6-6
1990-12-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-20	1488.04	1497.78	56.99%	42.76%	-20.08	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-31	1467.96	1573.16	27.84%	71.95%	-22.31	6-8
1990-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1445.65	1470.01	54.92%	44.83%	-20.90	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-22	1424.75	1434.00	40.11%	59.64%	-17.32	6-10
1990-09-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-47	1495.33	1443.44	48.78%	50.97%	-31.38	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-20	1463.95	1484.26	38.59%	61.16%	-18.42	0-2
1990-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1445.53	1470.71	54.80%	44.95%	+24.20	1-2
1990-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-7	1469.73	1484.61	39.34%	60.42%	+27.47	2-2
1990-10-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1497.20	1618.47	41.09%	58.67%	-10.24	2-3
1990-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 48-17	1486.96	1557.51	48.29%	51.46%	+41.22	3-3
1990-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1528.18	1520.63	59.41%	40.35%	+20.94	4-3
1990-10-28	New York Jets	L 12-17	1549.12	1398.02	76.95%	22.86%	-24.73	4-4
1990-11-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-17	1524.39	1472.60	48.76%	50.98%	-14.04	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-23	1510.35	1395.00	57.84%	41.91%	+20.90	5-5
1990-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1531.25	1648.93	41.59%	58.16%	+14.49	6-5
1990-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1545.74	1485.32	50.00%	49.74%	-12.46	6-6
1990-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 58-14	1533.28	1335.60	81.35%	18.48%	+17.64	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-10	1550.92	1606.97	33.85%	65.92%	+39.08	8-6
1990-12-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-40	1590.00	1466.78	58.94%	40.82%	-37.91	8-7
1990-12-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-14	1552.09	1555.56	57.87%	41.88%	+26.96	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-26	1505.59	1524.02	38.85%	60.91%	-22.37	0-1
1990-09-16	New England Patriots	L 14-16	1483.22	1460.31	61.52%	38.24%	-12.51	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-24	1470.71	1445.53	44.95%	54.80%	-24.20	0-3
1990-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1446.51	1512.39	32.60%	67.17%	+9.66	1-3
1990-10-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-19	1456.17	1565.08	42.82%	56.93%	+16.37	2-3
1990-10-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1472.54	1481.12	57.15%	42.60%	-25.99	2-4
1990-10-28	Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1446.55	1563.43	41.70%	58.05%	-26.84	2-5
1990-11-05	New York Giants	L 7-24	1419.71	1640.49	28.24%	71.55%	-16.76	2-6
1990-11-11	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1402.95	1336.23	50.91%	48.84%	+12.17	3-6
1990-11-18	New York Jets	W 17-14	1415.12	1424.93	56.98%	42.77%	+10.66	4-6
1990-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-20	1425.78	1511.51	30.14%	69.64%	+37.46	5-6
1990-12-02	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 17-20	1463.24	1386.92	52.29%	47.46%	-13.03	5-7
1990-12-09	Buffalo Bills	L 7-31	1450.21	1648.27	30.96%	68.82%	-21.83	5-8
1990-12-16	@ New York Jets	W 29-21	1428.38	1370.13	49.69%	50.06%	+20.37	6-8
1990-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 35-28	1448.75	1586.01	38.88%	60.88%	+23.16	7-8
1990-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-23	1471.91	1592.47	26.10%	73.70%	-9.20	7-9
1990-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1499.49	1528.70	54.22%	45.52%	+11.34	1-0
1990-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1510.83	1521.42	39.93%	59.83%	-5.74	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-3	1505.09	1480.54	44.86%	54.89%	+29.54	2-1
1990-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-0	1534.63	1497.14	63.48%	36.28%	+30.45	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 19-23	1565.08	1456.17	56.93%	42.82%	-16.38	3-2
1990-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 43-24	1548.70	1461.13	69.86%	29.92%	+18.77	4-2
1990-10-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-19	1567.47	1482.86	53.48%	46.27%	-26.64	4-3
1990-11-04	Los Angeles Raiders	W 9-7	1540.83	1588.80	51.53%	48.21%	+9.81	5-3
1990-11-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1550.64	1473.30	68.61%	31.17%	-9.87	5-4
1990-11-18	San Diego Chargers	W 27-10	1540.77	1544.40	57.85%	41.90%	+24.87	6-4
1990-11-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-24	1565.64	1557.35	42.56%	57.19%	+14.24	7-4
1990-12-02	@ New England Patriots	W 37-7	1579.88	1295.95	78.33%	21.49%	+16.95	8-4
1990-12-09	Denver Broncos	W 31-20	1596.83	1429.40	78.57%	21.25%	+10.14	9-4
1990-12-16	Houston Oilers	L 10-27	1606.97	1550.92	65.92%	33.85%	-39.08	9-5
1990-12-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-21	1567.89	1495.46	51.73%	48.02%	+11.97	10-5
1990-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-10	1579.86	1569.00	42.92%	56.83%	+27.11	11-5
1990-09-09	Denver Broncos	W 14-9	1498.21	1536.49	52.93%	46.82%	+15.06	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1513.27	1458.47	49.19%	50.55%	+14.55	2-0
1990-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-3	1527.82	1502.69	61.82%	37.94%	+22.51	3-0
1990-09-30	Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1550.33	1562.38	56.66%	43.09%	+23.20	4-0
1990-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-38	1573.53	1553.55	44.21%	55.54%	-23.80	4-1
1990-10-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1549.73	1495.86	65.63%	34.13%	+13.00	5-1
1990-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-9	1562.73	1481.71	52.96%	46.78%	+26.07	6-1
1990-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-9	1588.80	1540.83	48.21%	51.53%	-9.81	6-2
1990-11-11	Green Bay Packers	L 16-29	1578.99	1446.70	74.98%	24.82%	-38.86	6-3
1990-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1540.13	1621.94	30.62%	69.16%	+17.22	7-3
1990-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1557.35	1565.64	57.19%	42.56%	-14.25	7-4
1990-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1543.10	1440.28	56.07%	43.68%	+10.89	8-4
1990-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-31	1553.99	1448.37	56.47%	43.28%	+16.48	9-4
1990-12-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1570.47	1484.67	69.65%	30.13%	+17.88	10-4
1990-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-24	1588.35	1528.01	49.99%	49.75%	+14.32	11-4
1990-12-30	San Diego Chargers	W 17-12	1602.67	1483.49	73.54%	26.26%	+8.45	12-4
1990-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-36	1536.19	1492.37	47.62%	52.13%	-23.73	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-14	1512.46	1490.76	44.45%	55.29%	+36.44	1-1
1990-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-27	1548.90	1489.00	66.41%	33.36%	-23.39	1-2
1990-10-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1525.51	1543.61	55.81%	43.94%	-13.90	1-3
1990-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-38	1511.61	1556.21	35.34%	64.42%	-27.39	1-4
1990-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 44-24	1484.22	1441.05	64.23%	35.53%	+22.87	2-4
1990-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-41	1507.09	1495.32	43.05%	56.70%	-34.49	2-5
1990-11-04	Houston Oilers	W 17-13	1472.60	1524.39	50.98%	48.76%	+14.03	3-5
1990-11-11	New York Giants	L 7-31	1486.63	1657.25	34.43%	65.34%	-24.28	3-6
1990-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1462.35	1369.30	70.52%	29.26%	-17.56	3-7
1990-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-17	1444.79	1693.35	14.48%	85.39%	+40.69	4-7
1990-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-23	1485.48	1358.02	59.53%	40.23%	+22.42	5-7
1990-12-09	New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1507.90	1490.30	60.79%	38.96%	-17.48	5-8
1990-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-26	1490.42	1673.22	32.87%	66.91%	-18.93	5-9
1990-12-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1471.49	1363.11	56.86%	42.89%	-21.63	5-10
1990-12-31	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1449.86	1514.18	32.80%	66.98%	-8.18	5-11
1990-09-09	@ New England Patriots	W 27-24	1483.99	1474.52	42.73%	57.02%	+14.21	1-0
1990-09-16	Buffalo Bills	W 30-7	1498.20	1546.39	51.50%	48.24%	+33.29	2-0
1990-09-23	@ New York Giants	L 3-20	1531.49	1574.37	35.57%	64.20%	-21.11	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-6	1510.38	1480.17	45.67%	54.08%	+36.49	3-1
1990-10-07	New York Jets	W 20-16	1546.87	1465.79	69.07%	30.71%	+8.84	4-1
1990-10-18	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1555.71	1378.05	79.55%	20.28%	+7.72	5-1
1990-10-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-7	1563.43	1446.55	58.05%	41.70%	+26.84	6-1
1990-11-04	Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-3	1590.27	1398.92	80.79%	19.04%	+12.25	7-1
1990-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 17-3	1602.52	1444.36	63.70%	36.06%	+19.42	8-1
1990-11-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-13	1621.94	1540.13	69.16%	30.62%	-17.22	8-2
1990-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1604.72	1374.11	72.68%	27.11%	+16.09	9-2
1990-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-42	1620.81	1532.09	54.06%	45.68%	-36.48	9-3
1990-12-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1584.33	1583.45	58.48%	41.27%	+10.29	10-3
1990-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1594.62	1517.85	68.54%	31.24%	+11.90	11-3
1990-12-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1606.52	1686.32	30.87%	68.91%	-14.05	11-4
1990-12-30	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1592.47	1471.91	73.70%	26.10%	+9.20	12-4
1990-09-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1528.70	1499.49	45.52%	54.22%	-11.35	0-1
1990-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 32-3	1517.35	1526.09	57.13%	42.62%	+33.03	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-19	1550.38	1552.12	41.15%	58.60%	-10.26	1-2
1990-09-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1540.12	1464.81	68.36%	31.42%	-17.02	1-3
1990-10-07	Detroit Lions	L 27-34	1523.10	1434.51	69.98%	29.80%	-26.62	1-4
1990-10-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-32	1496.48	1502.73	40.53%	59.23%	-16.49	1-5
1990-10-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1479.99	1429.05	48.64%	51.11%	-26.19	1-6
1990-11-04	Denver Broncos	W 27-22	1453.80	1507.12	50.77%	48.98%	+15.76	2-6
1990-11-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1469.56	1469.59	41.39%	58.36%	+26.54	3-6
1990-11-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1496.10	1483.16	43.21%	56.54%	+14.08	4-6
1990-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 41-13	1510.18	1637.90	40.19%	59.56%	+45.33	5-6
1990-12-02	Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1555.51	1508.18	64.78%	34.98%	+20.14	6-6
1990-12-09	@ New York Giants	L 15-23	1575.65	1642.73	32.45%	67.33%	-13.21	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-26	1562.44	1383.48	66.41%	33.36%	-34.43	6-8
1990-12-22	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-28	1528.01	1588.35	49.75%	49.99%	-14.31	6-9
1990-12-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1513.70	1671.88	36.06%	63.70%	-8.99	6-10
1990-09-09	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1474.52	1483.99	57.02%	42.73%	-14.21	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-14	1460.31	1483.22	38.24%	61.52%	+12.51	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-41	1472.82	1551.85	30.96%	68.82%	-25.98	1-2
1990-09-30	New York Jets	L 13-37	1446.84	1422.29	61.74%	38.02%	-43.50	1-3
1990-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-33	1403.34	1470.56	48.77%	50.98%	-25.29	1-4
1990-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-17	1378.05	1555.71	20.28%	79.55%	-7.72	1-5
1990-10-28	Buffalo Bills	L 10-27	1370.33	1582.49	29.26%	70.53%	-17.37	1-6
1990-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-48	1352.96	1512.93	21.98%	77.84%	-16.73	1-7
1990-11-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-13	1336.23	1402.95	48.84%	50.91%	-12.17	1-8
1990-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-14	1324.06	1643.48	10.13%	89.77%	-5.45	1-9
1990-11-25	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-34	1318.61	1364.26	35.20%	64.56%	-22.66	1-10
1990-12-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-37	1295.95	1579.88	21.49%	78.33%	-16.94	1-11
1990-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-24	1279.01	1516.82	15.26%	84.60%	-10.06	1-12
1990-12-15	Washington Redskins	L 10-25	1268.95	1575.19	19.41%	80.42%	-10.81	1-13
1990-12-23	@ New York Jets	L 7-42	1258.14	1349.76	29.43%	70.35%	-25.07	1-14
1990-12-30	New York Giants	L 10-13	1233.07	1646.10	11.53%	88.35%	-2.87	1-15
1990-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-13	1533.44	1584.36	51.11%	48.64%	-7.35	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-32	1526.09	1517.35	42.62%	57.13%	-33.03	0-2
1990-09-23	Phoenix Cardinals	W 28-7	1493.06	1444.92	64.89%	34.88%	+23.00	1-2
1990-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-28	1516.06	1449.31	50.91%	48.83%	-7.32	1-3
1990-10-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 25-20	1508.74	1476.28	62.81%	36.95%	+11.89	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-23	1520.63	1528.18	40.35%	59.41%	-20.93	2-4
1990-10-28	Detroit Lions	L 10-27	1499.70	1442.36	66.08%	33.69%	-39.18	2-5
1990-11-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-7	1460.52	1510.28	34.67%	65.10%	+35.02	3-5
1990-11-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1495.54	1408.94	69.74%	30.04%	+22.88	4-5
1990-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1518.42	1541.49	38.22%	61.54%	-20.58	4-6
1990-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-7	1497.84	1428.90	67.56%	32.21%	+8.03	5-6
1990-12-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1505.87	1416.84	54.11%	45.64%	-15.57	5-7
1990-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-20	1490.30	1507.90	38.96%	60.79%	+17.49	6-7
1990-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-9	1507.79	1526.88	55.66%	44.08%	-13.87	6-8
1990-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-10	1493.92	1692.14	18.44%	81.40%	+20.26	7-8
1990-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1514.18	1449.86	66.98%	32.80%	+8.18	8-8
1990-09-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1529.80	1517.94	60.00%	39.75%	+15.14	1-0
1990-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-7	1544.94	1448.91	55.11%	44.64%	+29.43	2-0
1990-09-23	Miami Dolphins	W 20-3	1574.37	1531.49	64.20%	35.57%	+21.11	3-0
1990-09-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1595.48	1411.79	80.10%	19.73%	+10.62	4-0
1990-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1606.10	1573.74	45.97%	53.77%	+15.47	5-0
1990-10-21	Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-19	1621.57	1417.27	81.92%	17.92%	+2.58	6-0
1990-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 21-10	1624.15	1570.99	65.54%	34.22%	+16.34	7-0
1990-11-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-7	1640.49	1419.71	71.55%	28.24%	+16.76	8-0
1990-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-7	1657.25	1486.63	65.34%	34.43%	+24.28	9-0
1990-11-18	Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1681.53	1443.05	84.65%	15.21%	+9.78	10-0
1990-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-31	1691.31	1560.70	59.96%	39.79%	-36.58	10-1
1990-12-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-7	1654.73	1652.66	41.69%	58.07%	-12.00	10-2
1990-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-15	1642.73	1575.65	67.33%	32.45%	+13.21	11-2
1990-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 13-17	1655.94	1670.10	56.36%	43.39%	-16.21	11-3
1990-12-23	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-21	1639.73	1395.34	74.23%	25.57%	+6.37	12-3
1990-12-30	@ New England Patriots	W 13-10	1646.10	1233.07	88.35%	11.53%	+2.87	13-3
1990-09-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-25	1453.45	1525.92	31.77%	68.00%	-10.23	0-1
1990-09-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1443.22	1542.00	44.25%	55.50%	+13.83	1-1
1990-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1457.05	1513.10	50.37%	49.37%	-34.76	1-2
1990-09-30	@ New England Patriots	W 37-13	1422.29	1446.84	38.02%	61.74%	+43.50	2-2
1990-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-20	1465.79	1546.87	30.71%	69.07%	-8.84	2-3
1990-10-14	San Diego Chargers	L 3-39	1456.95	1427.92	62.35%	37.41%	-53.79	2-4
1990-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1403.16	1577.36	20.61%	79.22%	-5.14	2-5
1990-10-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-12	1398.02	1549.12	22.86%	76.95%	+24.73	3-5
1990-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-9	1422.75	1403.63	61.00%	38.76%	+21.61	4-5
1990-11-11	Miami Dolphins	L 3-17	1444.36	1602.52	36.06%	63.70%	-19.43	4-6
1990-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-17	1424.93	1415.12	42.77%	56.98%	-10.66	4-7
1990-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1414.27	1509.43	44.76%	54.98%	-26.56	4-8
1990-12-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-38	1387.71	1503.30	26.66%	73.14%	-17.58	4-9
1990-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-29	1370.13	1428.38	50.06%	49.69%	-20.37	4-10
1990-12-23	New England Patriots	W 42-7	1349.76	1258.14	70.35%	29.43%	+25.07	5-10
1990-12-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-14	1374.83	1405.38	37.21%	62.55%	+12.72	6-10
1990-09-09	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1517.94	1529.80	39.75%	60.00%	-15.13	0-1
1990-09-16	Phoenix Cardinals	L 21-23	1502.81	1431.12	67.91%	31.87%	-13.81	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-21	1489.00	1548.90	33.36%	66.41%	+23.39	1-2
1990-09-30	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-24	1512.39	1446.51	67.17%	32.60%	-9.66	1-3
1990-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 32-24	1502.73	1496.48	59.23%	40.53%	+16.50	2-3
1990-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-13	1519.23	1558.27	36.07%	63.69%	-12.72	2-4
1990-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-20	1506.51	1410.05	55.17%	44.58%	+6.42	3-4
1990-11-04	New England Patriots	W 48-20	1512.93	1352.96	77.84%	21.98%	+16.73	4-4
1990-11-12	Washington Redskins	W 28-14	1529.66	1566.59	53.12%	46.63%	+25.10	5-4
1990-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1554.76	1434.84	58.48%	41.27%	+5.94	6-4
1990-11-25	New York Giants	W 31-13	1560.70	1691.31	39.79%	59.96%	+36.59	7-4
1990-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-30	1597.29	1634.44	36.33%	63.44%	-13.84	7-5
1990-12-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1583.45	1584.33	41.27%	58.48%	-10.29	7-6
1990-12-16	Green Bay Packers	W 31-0	1573.16	1467.96	71.95%	27.84%	+22.32	8-6
1990-12-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-3	1595.48	1465.09	74.77%	25.03%	+13.47	9-6
1990-12-29	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-21	1608.95	1388.96	71.45%	28.33%	+5.77	10-6
1990-09-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-31	1456.71	1527.86	31.94%	67.84%	-25.59	0-1
1990-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1431.12	1502.81	31.87%	67.91%	+13.80	1-1
1990-09-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-28	1444.92	1493.06	34.88%	64.89%	-23.00	1-2
1990-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 10-38	1421.92	1542.36	41.20%	58.55%	-31.38	1-3
1990-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-3	1390.54	1416.39	54.70%	45.04%	+26.73	2-3
1990-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 19-20	1417.27	1621.57	17.92%	81.92%	-2.58	2-4
1990-10-28	Chicago Bears	L 21-31	1414.69	1583.60	34.65%	65.12%	-15.77	2-5
1990-11-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1398.92	1590.27	19.04%	80.79%	-12.26	2-6
1990-11-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-45	1386.66	1631.68	14.73%	85.13%	-11.79	2-7
1990-11-18	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1374.87	1485.56	42.57%	57.18%	-10.61	2-8
1990-11-25	New England Patriots	W 34-14	1364.26	1318.61	64.56%	35.20%	+22.66	3-8
1990-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-17	1386.92	1463.24	47.46%	52.29%	+13.03	4-8
1990-12-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-13	1399.95	1403.54	40.90%	58.86%	+28.07	5-8
1990-12-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-41	1428.02	1432.41	40.79%	58.97%	-32.68	5-9
1990-12-23	New York Giants	L 21-24	1395.34	1639.73	25.57%	74.23%	-6.38	5-10
1990-12-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-23	1388.96	1608.95	28.33%	71.45%	-5.77	5-11
1990-09-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-13	1501.67	1524.60	38.24%	61.52%	-17.41	0-1
1990-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 20-9	1484.26	1463.95	61.16%	38.59%	+18.43	1-1
1990-09-23	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-20	1502.69	1527.82	37.94%	61.82%	-22.52	1-2
1990-09-30	Miami Dolphins	L 6-28	1480.17	1510.38	54.08%	45.67%	-36.48	1-3
1990-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 36-14	1443.69	1457.14	56.46%	43.29%	+29.21	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-17	1472.90	1519.47	35.08%	64.68%	+38.35	3-3
1990-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-27	1511.25	1644.30	24.74%	75.06%	-15.93	3-4
1990-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 41-10	1495.32	1507.09	56.70%	43.05%	+34.50	4-4
1990-11-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-9	1529.82	1457.79	67.95%	31.83%	+15.87	5-4
1990-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-27	1545.69	1475.26	51.44%	48.30%	-36.26	5-5
1990-11-25	@ New York Jets	W 24-7	1509.43	1414.27	54.98%	44.76%	+26.56	6-5
1990-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-16	1535.99	1474.05	66.67%	33.10%	-19.17	6-6
1990-12-09	New England Patriots	W 24-3	1516.82	1279.01	84.60%	15.26%	+10.06	7-6
1990-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 9-6	1526.88	1507.79	44.08%	55.66%	+13.87	8-6
1990-12-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-0	1540.75	1330.31	82.44%	17.41%	+14.81	9-6
1990-12-30	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-34	1555.56	1552.09	41.88%	57.87%	-26.95	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1481.15	1437.03	47.66%	52.09%	-11.87	0-1
1990-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-21	1469.28	1536.14	48.82%	50.93%	-15.71	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1453.57	1528.18	31.51%	68.27%	+31.04	1-2
1990-09-30	Houston Oilers	L 7-17	1484.61	1469.73	60.42%	39.34%	-27.47	1-3
1990-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-36	1457.14	1443.69	43.29%	56.46%	-29.22	1-4
1990-10-14	@ New York Jets	W 39-3	1427.92	1456.95	37.41%	62.35%	+53.79	2-4
1990-10-21	Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-24	1481.71	1562.73	46.78%	52.96%	-26.07	2-5
1990-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-10	1455.64	1465.61	56.95%	42.80%	+34.29	3-5
1990-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1489.93	1509.51	38.69%	61.06%	+36.20	4-5
1990-11-11	Denver Broncos	W 19-7	1526.13	1491.36	63.12%	36.64%	+18.27	5-5
1990-11-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-27	1544.40	1540.77	41.90%	57.85%	-24.86	5-6
1990-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1519.54	1469.08	65.19%	34.58%	-16.24	5-7
1990-12-02	New York Jets	W 38-17	1503.30	1387.71	73.14%	26.66%	+17.58	6-7
1990-12-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-20	1520.88	1419.26	55.90%	43.85%	-25.42	6-8
1990-12-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1495.46	1567.89	48.02%	51.73%	-11.97	6-9
1990-12-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 12-17	1483.49	1602.67	26.26%	73.54%	-8.45	6-10
1990-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 13-12	1584.36	1533.44	48.64%	51.11%	+7.35	1-0
1990-09-16	Washington Redskins	W 26-13	1591.71	1553.45	63.58%	36.18%	+18.78	2-0
1990-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 19-13	1610.49	1457.29	77.16%	22.65%	+7.98	3-0
1990-10-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-21	1618.47	1497.20	58.67%	41.09%	+10.25	4-0
1990-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 45-35	1628.72	1456.63	65.53%	34.24%	+15.58	5-0
1990-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-7	1644.30	1511.25	75.06%	24.74%	+15.93	6-0
1990-10-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1660.23	1430.79	83.96%	15.89%	+3.95	7-0
1990-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-20	1664.18	1455.23	70.14%	29.64%	+8.54	8-0
1990-11-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-6	1672.72	1382.03	78.98%	20.85%	+12.72	9-0
1990-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1685.44	1386.06	88.67%	11.22%	+7.91	10-0
1990-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-28	1693.35	1444.79	85.39%	14.48%	-40.69	10-1
1990-12-03	New York Giants	W 7-3	1652.66	1654.73	58.07%	41.69%	+12.00	11-1
1990-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1664.66	1493.22	65.44%	34.32%	+8.56	12-1
1990-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-10	1673.22	1490.42	66.91%	32.87%	+18.92	13-1
1990-12-23	New Orleans Saints	L 10-13	1692.14	1493.92	81.40%	18.44%	-20.26	13-2
1990-12-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1671.88	1513.70	63.70%	36.06%	+8.99	14-2
1990-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-17	1482.15	1492.87	39.91%	59.85%	-23.68	0-1
1990-09-16	Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1458.47	1513.27	50.55%	49.19%	-14.55	0-2
1990-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 31-34	1443.92	1527.17	30.44%	69.34%	-7.59	0-3
1990-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-16	1436.33	1577.83	38.30%	61.46%	+34.23	1-3
1990-10-07	@ New England Patriots	W 33-20	1470.56	1403.34	50.98%	48.77%	+25.30	2-3
1990-10-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1495.86	1549.73	34.13%	65.63%	-13.00	2-4
1990-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-7	1482.86	1567.47	46.27%	53.48%	+26.65	3-4
1990-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1509.51	1489.93	61.06%	38.69%	-36.21	3-5
1990-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1473.30	1550.64	31.17%	68.61%	+9.86	4-5
1990-11-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1483.16	1496.10	56.54%	43.21%	-14.08	4-6
1990-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1469.08	1519.54	34.58%	65.19%	+16.24	5-6
1990-12-02	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1485.32	1545.74	49.74%	50.00%	+12.46	6-6
1990-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-14	1497.78	1488.04	42.76%	56.99%	+20.07	7-6
1990-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1517.85	1594.62	31.24%	68.54%	-11.90	7-7
1990-12-23	Denver Broncos	W 17-12	1505.95	1444.68	66.59%	33.18%	+10.69	8-7
1990-12-30	Detroit Lions	W 30-10	1516.64	1490.91	61.90%	37.86%	+24.36	9-7
1990-09-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-21	1454.17	1478.53	38.04%	61.72%	+36.59	1-0
1990-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-35	1490.76	1512.46	55.29%	44.45%	-36.45	1-1
1990-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1454.31	1459.47	57.63%	42.12%	+10.50	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1464.81	1540.12	31.42%	68.36%	+17.02	3-1
1990-10-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-14	1481.83	1401.16	52.91%	46.83%	-15.22	3-2
1990-10-14	Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1466.61	1448.44	60.87%	38.89%	+19.39	4-2
1990-10-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1486.00	1389.66	70.91%	28.87%	-20.39	4-3
1990-10-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-41	1465.61	1455.64	42.80%	56.95%	-34.29	4-4
1990-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 6-26	1431.32	1599.37	34.76%	65.00%	-22.38	4-5
1990-11-11	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-35	1408.94	1495.54	30.04%	69.74%	-22.88	4-6
1990-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-31	1386.06	1685.44	11.22%	88.67%	-7.90	4-7
1990-11-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1378.16	1496.17	26.39%	73.41%	-12.01	4-8
1990-12-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1366.15	1420.87	50.56%	49.18%	+17.33	5-8
1990-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-13	1383.48	1562.44	33.36%	66.41%	+34.43	6-8
1990-12-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1417.91	1556.46	24.16%	75.65%	-12.53	6-9
1990-12-30	New York Jets	L 14-16	1405.38	1374.83	62.55%	37.21%	-12.72	6-10
1990-09-09	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-0	1527.86	1456.71	67.84%	31.94%	+25.59	1-0
1990-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-26	1553.45	1591.71	36.18%	63.58%	-18.77	1-1
1990-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-15	1534.68	1419.47	73.10%	26.70%	+7.68	2-1
1990-09-30	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 38-10	1542.36	1421.92	58.55%	41.20%	+31.38	3-1
1990-10-14	New York Giants	L 20-24	1573.74	1606.10	53.77%	45.97%	-15.47	3-2
1990-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-7	1558.27	1519.23	63.69%	36.07%	+12.72	4-2
1990-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 10-21	1570.99	1624.15	34.22%	65.54%	-16.34	4-3
1990-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-38	1554.65	1481.53	51.83%	47.92%	+11.94	5-3
1990-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-28	1566.59	1529.66	46.63%	53.12%	-25.10	5-4
1990-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 31-17	1541.49	1518.42	61.54%	38.22%	+20.58	6-4
1990-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1562.07	1386.86	65.93%	33.84%	-29.98	6-5
1990-12-02	Miami Dolphins	W 42-20	1532.09	1620.81	45.68%	54.06%	+36.48	7-5
1990-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 10-9	1568.57	1601.20	53.73%	46.01%	+6.62	8-5
1990-12-15	@ New England Patriots	W 25-10	1575.19	1268.95	80.42%	19.41%	+10.82	9-5
1990-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-35	1586.01	1448.75	60.88%	38.88%	-23.16	9-6
1990-12-30	Buffalo Bills	W 29-14	1562.85	1700.37	38.84%	60.91%	+33.92	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1991-01-12	Miami Dolphins	W 44-34	1666.44	1607.74	66.39%	33.61%	+15.25	1-0
1991-01-20	Los Angeles Raiders	W 51-3	1681.69	1626.24	65.97%	34.03%	+33.84	2-0
1991-01-27	@ New York Giants	L 19-20	1715.53	1684.30	54.48%	45.52%	-7.82	2-1
1991-01-06	New Orleans Saints	W 16-6	1541.89	1522.36	61.18%	38.82%	+17.62	1-0
1991-01-13	@ New York Giants	L 3-31	1559.51	1648.97	29.78%	70.22%	-22.62	1-1
1991-01-06	Houston Oilers	W 41-14	1512.01	1579.05	48.92%	51.08%	+38.09	1-0
1991-01-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-20	1550.10	1611.12	33.32%	66.68%	-15.12	1-1
1991-01-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-41	1579.05	1512.01	51.08%	48.92%	-38.09	0-1
1991-01-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1606.97	1601.67	42.26%	57.74%	-6.07	0-1
1991-01-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-10	1611.12	1550.10	66.68%	33.32%	+15.12	1-0
1991-01-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-51	1626.24	1681.69	34.03%	65.97%	-33.84	1-1
1991-01-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1601.67	1606.97	57.74%	42.26%	+6.07	1-0
1991-01-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 34-44	1607.74	1666.44	33.61%	66.39%	-15.26	1-1
1991-01-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-16	1522.36	1541.89	38.82%	61.18%	-17.62	0-1
1991-01-13	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1648.97	1559.51	70.22%	29.78%	+22.62	1-0
1991-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-13	1671.59	1701.91	37.35%	62.65%	+12.71	2-0
1991-01-27	Buffalo Bills	W 20-19	1684.30	1715.53	45.52%	54.48%	+7.82	3-0
1991-01-05	Washington Redskins	L 6-20	1614.72	1596.77	60.97%	39.03%	-32.73	0-1
1991-01-12	Washington Redskins	W 28-10	1680.87	1629.51	65.44%	34.56%	+21.04	1-0
1991-01-20	New York Giants	L 13-15	1701.91	1671.59	62.65%	37.35%	-12.71	1-1
1991-01-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-6	1596.77	1614.72	39.03%	60.97%	+32.74	1-0
1991-01-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-28	1629.51	1680.87	34.56%	65.44%	-21.05	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1990-11-25	14.48%	Los Angeles Rams	1444.79	28	@ San Francisco 49ers	1693.35	17
2	1990-12-23	18.44%	New Orleans Saints	1493.92	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1692.14	10
3	1990-10-28	22.86%	New York Jets	1398.02	17	@ Houston Oilers	1549.12	12
4	1990-11-11	24.82%	Green Bay Packers	1446.70	29	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1578.99	16
5	1990-10-21	28.87%	Dallas Cowboys	1389.66	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1486.00	13
6	1990-11-18	29.26%	Dallas Cowboys	1369.30	24	@ Los Angeles Rams	1462.35	21
7	1990-10-07	29.80%	Detroit Lions	1434.51	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1523.10	27
8	1990-11-25	30.14%	Indianapolis Colts	1425.78	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1511.51	20
9	1990-11-19	30.62%	Los Angeles Raiders	1540.13	13	@ Miami Dolphins	1621.94	10
10	1990-11-11	31.17%	Seattle Seahawks	1473.30	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1550.64	16
11	1990-09-30	31.42%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1464.81	23	@ Minnesota Vikings	1540.12	20
12	1990-09-23	31.51%	San Diego Chargers	1453.57	24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1528.18	14
13	1990-09-16	31.87%	Phoenix Cardinals	1431.12	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1502.81	21
14	1990-09-30	32.60%	Indianapolis Colts	1446.51	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1512.39	23
15	1990-10-08	33.04%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1466.69	30	@ Denver Broncos	1529.06	29
16	1990-12-02	33.10%	Cincinnati Bengals	1474.05	16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1535.99	12
17	1990-09-23	33.36%	Philadelphia Eagles	1489.00	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1548.90	21
18	1990-12-16	33.36%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1383.48	26	Minnesota Vikings	1562.44	13
19	1990-10-28	33.69%	Detroit Lions	1442.36	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1499.70	10
20	1990-11-22	33.84%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1386.86	27	Washington Redskins	1562.07	17
21	1990-12-16	33.85%	Houston Oilers	1550.92	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1606.97	10
22	1990-11-25	34.58%	Seattle Seahawks	1469.08	13	@ San Diego Chargers	1519.54	10
23	1990-11-04	34.67%	New Orleans Saints	1460.52	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1510.28	7
24	1990-10-14	35.08%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1472.90	34	@ Denver Broncos	1519.47	17
25	1990-12-16	35.47%	@ Detroit Lions	1431.89	38	Chicago Bears	1594.58	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1990-10-14	53.79	San Diego Chargers	39	1427.92	37.41%	@ New York Jets	3	1456.95	62.35%
2	1990-11-25	45.33	@ Minnesota Vikings	41	1510.18	40.19%	Chicago Bears	13	1637.90	59.56%
3	1990-09-30	43.50	New York Jets	37	1422.29	38.02%	@ New England Patriots	13	1446.84	61.74%
4	1990-10-14	41.22	@ Houston Oilers	48	1486.96	48.29%	Cincinnati Bengals	17	1557.51	51.46%
5	1990-11-25	40.69	Los Angeles Rams	28	1444.79	14.48%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1693.35	85.39%
6	1990-10-28	39.61	@ Atlanta Falcons	38	1418.18	39.64%	Cincinnati Bengals	17	1549.89	60.12%
7	1990-10-28	39.18	Detroit Lions	27	1442.36	33.69%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1499.70	66.08%
8	1990-12-16	39.08	Houston Oilers	27	1550.92	33.85%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1606.97	65.92%
9	1990-11-11	38.86	Green Bay Packers	29	1446.70	24.82%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	16	1578.99	74.98%
10	1990-10-14	38.35	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1472.90	35.08%	@ Denver Broncos	17	1519.47	64.68%
11	1990-12-16	38.12	@ Detroit Lions	38	1431.89	35.47%	Chicago Bears	21	1594.58	64.30%
12	1991-01-06 *	38.09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	41	1512.01	48.92%	Houston Oilers	14	1579.05	51.08%
13	1990-12-23	37.91	@ Cincinnati Bengals	40	1466.78	40.82%	Houston Oilers	20	1590.00	58.94%
14	1990-11-25	37.46	Indianapolis Colts	34	1425.78	30.14%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	20	1511.51	69.64%
15	1990-09-09	36.59	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	1454.17	38.04%	@ Detroit Lions	21	1478.53	61.72%
16	1990-11-25	36.59	@ Philadelphia Eagles	31	1560.70	39.79%	New York Giants	13	1691.31	59.96%
17	1990-09-30	36.49	Miami Dolphins	28	1510.38	45.67%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1480.17	54.08%
18	1990-12-02	36.48	@ Washington Redskins	42	1532.09	45.68%	Miami Dolphins	20	1620.81	54.06%
19	1990-09-16	36.45	Los Angeles Rams	35	1512.46	44.45%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1490.76	55.29%
20	1990-11-18	36.26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1475.26	48.30%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1545.69	51.44%
21	1990-11-04	36.21	San Diego Chargers	31	1489.93	38.69%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1509.51	61.06%
22	1990-09-16	35.57	Chicago Bears	31	1516.55	41.46%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1516.10	58.29%
23	1990-11-04	35.02	New Orleans Saints	21	1460.52	34.67%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1510.28	65.10%
24	1990-09-24	34.76	Buffalo Bills	30	1513.10	49.37%	@ New York Jets	7	1457.05	50.37%
25	1990-10-29	34.50	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	41	1495.32	56.70%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1507.09	43.05%