1989 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1988

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1987

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

3.33 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.67 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Cowboys

4.38 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.38 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	6	1	.594	-	334	254	+80	9.39	+0.11
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	0.5	365	412	-47	8.57	+0.43
3	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	0.5	265	326	-61	7.14	+1.86
4	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	0	.500	1.5	404	285	+119	8.87	-0.87

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	9	7	.562	-	409	317	+92	8.90	+0.10
2	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	1	298	301	-3	8.13	-0.13
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	1	331	379	-48	7.80	+0.20
4	New England Patriots	5	11	.312	4	297	391	-94	7.21	-2.21
5	New York Jets	4	12	.250	5	253	411	-158	6.92	-2.92

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	11	5	0	.688	-	362	226	+136	9.49	+1.51
2	Kansas City Chiefs	8	7	1	.531	2.5	318	286	+32	7.28	+1.22
3	Los Angeles Raiders	8	8	0	.500	3	315	297	+18	7.91	+0.09
4	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	0	.438	4	241	327	-86	7.42	-0.42
5	San Diego Chargers	6	10	0	.375	5	266	290	-24	6.67	-0.67

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	6	.625	-	351	275	+76	9.55	+0.45
2	Green Bay Packers	10	6	.625	-	362	356	+6	7.64	+2.36
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	3	312	364	-52	6.03	+0.97
4	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	4	358	377	-19	9.12	-3.12
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	5	320	419	-99	6.35	-1.35

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	12	4	.750	-	348	252	+96	9.27	+2.73
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	342	274	+68	8.81	+2.19
3	Washington Redskins	10	6	.625	2	386	308	+78	8.64	+1.36
4	Phoenix Cardinals	5	11	.312	7	258	377	-119	7.34	-2.34
5	Dallas Cowboys	1	15	.062	11	204	393	-189	5.38	-4.38

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	14	2	.875	-	442	253	+189	10.67	+3.33
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	11	5	.688	3	426	344	+82	8.95	+2.05
3	New Orleans Saints	9	7	.562	5	386	301	+85	8.76	+0.24
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	13	.188	11	279	437	-158	5.80	-2.80

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 26

Houston Oilers 23

Dec 31

Divisional Round

Cleveland Browns (1st) 34

Buffalo Bills 30

Jan 6

Denver Broncos 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Jan 7

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 37

Cleveland Browns (1st) 21

Jan 14

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 21

Philadelphia Eagles 7

Dec 31

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 41

Minnesota Vikings 13

Jan 6

Los Angeles Rams 19

New York Giants 13

Jan 7

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 30

Los Angeles Rams 3

Jan 14

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 55

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1675	14	10.67	+3.33	98.90%	2	8	9	11	12	14	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1588	12	9.27	+2.73	95.98%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1584	11	9.49	+1.51	85.57%	2	6	8	9	11	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1580	10	9.55	+0.45	69.07%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1577	11	8.95	+2.05	91.45%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1572	9	8.76	+0.24	65.27%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1565	10	8.64	+1.36	83.65%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1563	11	8.81	+2.19	92.43%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1561	9.5	9.39	+0.11	52.60%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1559	9	8.90	+0.10	62.68%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1550	8	8.87	-0.87	43.09%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1514	8	8.13	-0.13	58.38%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1500	9	8.57	+0.43	69.02%	0	5	7	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1500	9	7.14	+1.86	89.08%	0	4	6	7	8	10	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1500	8.5	7.28	+1.22	74.20%	0	4	6	7	9	10	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1497	8	7.91	+0.09	62.58%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1485	10	7.64	+2.36	93.58%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1483	6	9.12	-3.12	8.96%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1467	8	7.80	+0.20	64.62%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1464	7	7.42	-0.42	52.71%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1453	6	6.67	-0.67	47.60%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1453	7	6.03	+0.97	79.02%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1439	5	7.21	-2.21	19.62%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1402	5	7.34	-2.34	17.66%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1393	4	6.92	-2.92	10.63%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1390	5	6.35	-1.35	34.19%	0	3	5	6	8	9	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1356	3	5.80	-2.80	11.17%	0	3	4	6	7	9	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1330	1	5.38	-4.38	1.22%	0	2	4	5	7	8	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-0-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-	-
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	0-4 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	-	2-1 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.34%	1.79%	0.89%	0.67%	0.45%	6.03%
7–13	0.89%	3.57%	6.03%	3.12%	3.12%	1.12%	0.67%	18.53%
14–20	1.34%	6.03%	8.93%	7.59%	2.68%	1.56%	0.22%	28.35%
21–27	1.79%	3.12%	7.59%	6.25%	3.35%	0.67%	0.45%	23.21%
28–34	0.89%	3.12%	2.68%	3.35%	2.68%	1.56%	0.22%	14.51%
35–41	0.67%	1.12%	1.56%	0.67%	1.56%	0.45%	0.67%	6.70%
42+	0.45%	0.67%	0.22%	0.45%	0.22%	0.67%	—	2.68%
Total	6.03%	18.53%	28.35%	23.21%	14.51%	6.70%	2.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.61	20.61	+0.00
SD	10.32	10.32	15.17
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	61	61	+54
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.44	27.31	-9.88
SD	8.00	8.70	11.92
CV	0.46	0.32	—
Max	30	45	+6
Min	3	13	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.56	19.81	+5.75
SD	9.67	12.19	16.83
CV	0.38	0.62	—
Max	47	41	+37
Min	10	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	23.56	-1.19
SD	12.04	12.49	16.61
CV	0.54	0.53	—
Max	47	42	+31
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.25	17.81	+7.44
SD	16.36	8.42	21.51
CV	0.65	0.47	—
Max	61	29	+54
Min	7	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	15.88	+5.00
SD	13.74	7.69	16.01
CV	0.66	0.48	—
Max	51	31	+51
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.75	24.56	-11.81
SD	9.07	8.53	9.86
CV	0.71	0.35	—
Max	31	36	+10
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	14.12	+8.50
SD	10.38	7.13	12.77
CV	0.46	0.50	—
Max	41	28	+37
Min	7	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	—	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	22.75	-3.25
SD	9.68	10.75	14.54
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	33	47	+26
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	22.25	+0.38
SD	9.50	8.25	8.83
CV	0.42	0.37	—
Max	40	41	+18
Min	3	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.81	25.75	-2.94
SD	12.01	15.28	22.10
CV	0.53	0.59	—
Max	41	61	+32
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	18.81	-0.19
SD	10.68	9.88	16.50
CV	0.57	0.53	—
Max	42	41	+29
Min	3	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	17.88	+2.00
SD	8.17	8.71	12.17
CV	0.41	0.49	—
Max	36	34	+34
Min	6	0	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	18.56	+1.12
SD	9.16	8.09	11.85
CV	0.47	0.44	—
Max	40	34	+26
Min	7	7	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	21.50	+5.12
SD	8.91	9.01	11.83
CV	0.33	0.42	—
Max	41	40	+24
Min	10	10	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.69	23.69	-3.00
SD	7.23	11.32	14.66
CV	0.35	0.48	—
Max	33	42	+21
Min	7	10	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.94	17.19	+4.75
SD	9.59	8.83	15.25
CV	0.44	0.51	—
Max	43	38	+31
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.56	24.44	-5.88
SD	8.06	6.16	11.13
CV	0.43	0.25	—
Max	33	37	+10
Min	3	13	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	18.81	+5.31
SD	9.46	8.42	13.91
CV	0.39	0.45	—
Max	41	35	+35
Min	10	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	15.75	+6.00
SD	7.14	9.40	11.87
CV	0.33	0.60	—
Max	35	34	+28
Min	10	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	25.69	-9.88
SD	11.22	9.67	14.20
CV	0.71	0.38	—
Max	40	38	+20
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.38	17.12	+4.25
SD	9.82	11.48	11.85
CV	0.46	0.67	—
Max	42	38	+27
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.12	23.56	-7.44
SD	9.65	8.73	14.54
CV	0.60	0.37	—
Max	34	37	+14
Min	0	10	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.56	20.38	-3.81
SD	11.01	13.52	21.64
CV	0.66	0.66	—
Max	34	51	+20
Min	0	0	-51

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	31.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	18.12	-1.50
SD	5.81	8.88	9.17
CV	0.35	0.49	—
Max	27	40	+15
Min	6	6	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	15.81	+11.81
SD	8.52	8.18	11.14
CV	0.31	0.52	—
Max	45	28	+42
Min	12	0	-4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	56.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	20.44	-5.38
SD	8.09	9.64	13.43
CV	0.54	0.47	—
Max	24	41	+21
Min	0	3	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	26.19	-6.19
SD	9.95	11.95	11.39
CV	0.50	0.46	—
Max	42	56	+10
Min	3	10	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	19.25	+4.88
SD	10.16	11.99	12.53
CV	0.42	0.62	—
Max	38	42	+29
Min	3	0	-13

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.57	+0.4
Allowed	0.52	-0.4
Differential	0.78	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	14	10.67	+3.33
2	New York Giants	12	9.27	+2.73
3	Green Bay Packers	10	7.64	+2.36
4	Philadelphia Eagles	11	8.81	+2.19
5	Los Angeles Rams	11	8.95	+2.05

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	1	5.38	-4.38
2	Chicago Bears	6	9.12	-3.12
3	New York Jets	4	6.92	-2.92
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	5.80	-2.80
5	Phoenix Cardinals	5	7.34	-2.34

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	5	Nov 23 – Dec 24	1 in 120
2	Green Bay Packers	3	Nov 19 – Dec 3	1 in 24
3	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 26 – Dec 23	1 in 17
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	Sep 10 – Oct 8	1 in 17
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Oct 8 – Oct 29	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 19 – Dec 24	1 in 205
2	Dallas Cowboys	8	Sep 10 – Oct 29	1 in 52
3	Phoenix Cardinals	6	Nov 19 – Dec 24	1 in 24
4	New Orleans Saints	4	Sep 17 – Oct 8	1 in 23
5	New York Jets	5	Oct 1 – Oct 29	1 in 21

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	39.78%	28.24%	20.44%	11.54%
Cincinnati Bengals	28.32%	28.95%	25.73%	17.01%
Houston Oilers	23.62%	27.41%	28.07%	20.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.27%	15.41%	25.76%	50.56%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	37.86%	24.65%	17.63%	12.19%	7.68%
Indianapolis Colts	23.30%	23.16%	21.35%	18.24%	13.95%
Miami Dolphins	17.74%	21.17%	21.59%	20.90%	18.61%
New England Patriots	11.85%	16.78%	20.39%	24.03%	26.95%
New York Jets	9.25%	14.25%	19.04%	24.64%	32.82%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	49.91%	23.86%	13.96%	8.12%	4.15%
Los Angeles Raiders	18.39%	24.28%	22.30%	19.55%	15.48%
Seattle Seahawks	13.22%	20.41%	22.74%	22.95%	20.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.42%	18.31%	22.17%	24.13%	23.98%
San Diego Chargers	7.06%	13.14%	18.84%	25.25%	35.70%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	44.94%	28.75%	15.62%	7.61%	3.07%
Chicago Bears	35.19%	31.59%	19.20%	9.77%	4.25%
Green Bay Packers	12.47%	21.08%	28.55%	22.93%	14.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.40%	10.44%	19.96%	30.53%	34.67%
Detroit Lions	3.00%	8.13%	16.67%	29.15%	43.05%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	36.79%	27.19%	19.89%	12.09%	4.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	28.16%	27.45%	23.37%	15.40%	5.61%
Washington Redskins	24.36%	25.91%	24.59%	17.90%	7.24%
Phoenix Cardinals	9.26%	15.50%	23.22%	32.63%	19.39%
Dallas Cowboys	1.44%	3.94%	8.93%	21.98%	63.71%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	59.80%	26.19%	11.91%	2.10%
Los Angeles Rams	20.79%	35.02%	33.47%	10.72%
New Orleans Saints	18.14%	33.10%	36.76%	12.00%
Atlanta Falcons	1.27%	5.69%	17.86%	75.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Denver Broncos	18.58%	15.68%	12.93%	9.57%	8.41%	7.38%	5.85%	5.14%	4.40%	3.60%	2.98%	2.42%	1.83%	1.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.40%	13.62%	11.34%	10.32%	8.65%	7.43%	6.84%	5.83%	5.05%	4.09%	3.23%	2.82%	1.60%	0.78%
Buffalo Bills	12.14%	11.79%	11.21%	9.73%	8.81%	7.98%	7.03%	6.48%	5.76%	5.11%	4.47%	3.83%	3.25%	2.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.83%	10.85%	9.83%	9.92%	8.96%	8.25%	8.15%	7.26%	6.53%	5.49%	4.80%	4.16%	2.62%	1.36%
Houston Oilers	9.43%	8.98%	8.89%	9.31%	8.71%	8.39%	8.32%	7.72%	7.36%	6.44%	5.63%	5.27%	3.53%	2.01%
Indianapolis Colts	6.34%	7.38%	7.93%	7.82%	8.01%	8.07%	7.78%	7.75%	7.47%	7.26%	7.00%	6.17%	5.91%	5.10%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.97%	6.01%	6.88%	7.22%	7.90%	8.26%	7.76%	7.79%	7.90%	7.54%	7.44%	7.05%	6.73%	6.56%
Miami Dolphins	4.50%	5.86%	6.45%	7.02%	7.32%	7.55%	7.71%	7.70%	7.69%	8.08%	7.71%	7.49%	7.77%	7.17%
Seattle Seahawks	3.11%	4.28%	5.20%	5.81%	6.52%	7.06%	7.33%	7.76%	8.53%	8.32%	8.82%	8.80%	8.81%	9.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.75%	3.76%	4.63%	5.28%	6.10%	6.63%	7.19%	7.49%	8.00%	8.73%	8.82%	9.34%	10.31%	10.98%
New England Patriots	2.38%	3.72%	4.49%	5.17%	5.81%	6.30%	6.99%	7.39%	7.94%	8.62%	9.21%	9.57%	10.93%	11.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	3.20%	3.75%	4.94%	5.38%	6.07%	6.93%	7.94%	8.41%	9.40%	10.82%	11.93%	10.32%	8.49%
New York Jets	1.78%	2.74%	3.51%	4.28%	5.02%	5.64%	6.37%	7.05%	7.54%	8.85%	9.42%	10.47%	12.62%	14.72%
San Diego Chargers	1.38%	2.12%	2.98%	3.60%	4.41%	5.00%	5.74%	6.71%	7.43%	8.48%	9.65%	10.68%	13.78%	18.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	31.98%	18.54%	13.15%	10.06%	7.70%	5.73%	4.44%	3.28%	2.24%	1.34%	0.79%	0.49%	0.19%	0.06%
Minnesota Vikings	13.33%	14.25%	13.51%	10.97%	9.99%	8.97%	7.21%	6.05%	5.04%	3.80%	2.95%	2.01%	1.30%	0.62%
New York Giants	10.95%	12.35%	11.85%	10.66%	9.75%	9.25%	8.13%	7.25%	6.06%	4.97%	3.80%	2.56%	1.58%	0.83%
Chicago Bears	9.34%	11.38%	11.60%	10.79%	10.50%	9.61%	8.55%	7.23%	6.45%	4.98%	4.00%	2.75%	1.85%	0.97%
Los Angeles Rams	8.53%	8.87%	9.46%	10.74%	10.36%	10.03%	9.59%	9.11%	7.87%	5.58%	4.27%	3.23%	1.67%	0.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.86%	9.21%	9.69%	10.01%	9.75%	9.58%	8.97%	8.41%	7.66%	6.34%	5.20%	3.65%	2.35%	1.33%
New Orleans Saints	7.16%	7.84%	8.57%	10.28%	10.20%	9.94%	10.07%	9.44%	8.57%	6.22%	4.74%	3.80%	2.16%	0.99%
Washington Redskins	5.94%	8.21%	9.13%	9.09%	9.69%	9.57%	9.23%	8.77%	8.01%	7.21%	5.95%	4.33%	3.01%	1.86%
Green Bay Packers	2.11%	3.80%	4.90%	5.82%	7.14%	8.10%	8.92%	9.76%	10.34%	9.97%	9.29%	7.85%	6.73%	5.27%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.53%	2.91%	3.81%	4.83%	5.82%	7.00%	7.92%	9.07%	10.04%	11.25%	11.05%	9.65%	8.18%	6.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.57%	1.14%	1.73%	2.52%	3.28%	4.33%	5.51%	6.79%	8.45%	10.51%	12.48%	13.32%	14.48%	14.89%
Detroit Lions	0.31%	0.71%	1.21%	1.81%	2.52%	3.32%	4.62%	5.95%	7.41%	10.05%	11.96%	13.86%	17.41%	18.87%
Atlanta Falcons	0.23%	0.45%	0.77%	1.38%	1.95%	2.68%	3.96%	5.26%	6.86%	9.87%	13.67%	18.77%	17.89%	16.25%
Dallas Cowboys	0.15%	0.33%	0.61%	1.03%	1.34%	1.88%	2.89%	3.64%	5.00%	7.93%	9.85%	13.74%	21.19%	30.43%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	21.93%	13.20%	10.48%	7.90%	7.04%	5.57%	5.29%	4.26%	3.82%	3.17%	2.83%	2.56%	2.04%	1.89%	1.54%	1.38%	1.09%	1.08%	0.66%	0.64%	0.44%	0.37%	0.26%	0.23%	0.14%	0.11%	0.05%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	8.62%	7.38%	7.88%	6.62%	6.92%	5.87%	5.64%	5.13%	4.87%	4.58%	4.38%	3.92%	3.58%	3.31%	2.93%	2.82%	2.55%	2.28%	1.93%	1.85%	1.42%	1.41%	1.11%	1.00%	0.72%	0.63%	0.38%	0.28%
Denver Broncos	8.04%	8.64%	7.38%	7.63%	6.34%	6.57%	5.07%	5.14%	4.65%	4.33%	3.98%	3.60%	3.49%	3.21%	2.93%	2.53%	2.43%	2.14%	2.11%	1.82%	1.73%	1.37%	1.28%	1.08%	0.96%	0.69%	0.58%	0.27%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.59%	8.43%	6.84%	6.82%	5.97%	5.85%	5.17%	5.24%	4.67%	4.59%	3.87%	3.94%	3.72%	3.47%	3.25%	2.93%	2.74%	2.44%	2.33%	2.02%	1.82%	1.50%	1.39%	1.18%	0.86%	0.67%	0.45%	0.23%
New York Giants	6.73%	6.10%	6.84%	5.96%	6.11%	5.62%	5.63%	4.82%	4.89%	4.50%	4.58%	4.24%	3.82%	3.72%	3.42%	3.50%	2.98%	2.77%	2.43%	2.30%	1.94%	1.83%	1.35%	1.28%	0.93%	0.81%	0.53%	0.37%
Chicago Bears	5.73%	5.40%	6.42%	5.55%	6.20%	5.26%	5.54%	5.03%	5.28%	4.63%	4.86%	4.25%	4.15%	3.85%	3.61%	3.28%	3.09%	3.03%	2.48%	2.42%	1.97%	1.97%	1.53%	1.42%	1.03%	0.98%	0.64%	0.42%
Los Angeles Rams	5.08%	4.66%	5.17%	4.78%	5.18%	4.79%	5.59%	4.84%	5.06%	4.66%	5.09%	4.73%	4.47%	4.26%	4.16%	4.11%	3.49%	3.75%	2.72%	2.66%	2.16%	2.19%	1.71%	1.64%	1.08%	1.01%	0.58%	0.37%
Buffalo Bills	4.74%	5.85%	5.32%	5.80%	5.23%	5.75%	4.95%	5.10%	4.82%	4.58%	4.25%	4.13%	3.96%	3.78%	3.55%	3.25%	3.26%	2.84%	2.86%	2.59%	2.51%	2.23%	2.06%	1.75%	1.73%	1.37%	1.13%	0.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.44%	5.73%	4.99%	5.58%	5.04%	5.17%	4.89%	4.91%	4.77%	4.76%	4.33%	4.23%	4.37%	4.10%	3.93%	3.64%	3.52%	3.23%	3.10%	2.72%	2.53%	2.23%	2.25%	1.79%	1.43%	1.14%	0.78%	0.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.65%	4.33%	5.12%	4.54%	5.28%	4.70%	5.23%	4.74%	4.91%	4.54%	4.84%	4.49%	4.31%	4.05%	3.89%	4.04%	3.50%	3.84%	2.91%	3.08%	2.40%	2.59%	2.03%	1.90%	1.38%	1.23%	0.86%	0.66%
New Orleans Saints	4.16%	4.06%	4.57%	4.30%	4.62%	4.54%	5.17%	4.97%	4.80%	4.72%	4.95%	4.76%	4.59%	4.55%	4.24%	4.46%	3.72%	4.03%	2.87%	3.15%	2.38%	2.56%	2.00%	1.91%	1.33%	1.23%	0.80%	0.56%
Washington Redskins	3.48%	3.74%	4.52%	4.25%	4.78%	4.48%	4.78%	4.52%	4.62%	4.66%	4.77%	4.53%	4.37%	4.24%	4.11%	4.26%	3.77%	3.78%	3.36%	3.44%	2.88%	2.88%	2.23%	2.22%	1.75%	1.54%	1.10%	0.92%
Houston Oilers	3.35%	4.51%	4.05%	4.81%	4.32%	4.68%	4.55%	4.78%	4.46%	4.69%	4.27%	4.31%	4.40%	4.32%	4.22%	3.87%	3.86%	3.81%	3.51%	3.19%	3.04%	2.68%	2.79%	2.27%	1.86%	1.57%	1.08%	0.72%
Indianapolis Colts	2.31%	3.00%	3.28%	3.63%	3.63%	4.00%	3.77%	4.12%	4.14%	4.21%	4.02%	4.23%	4.19%	4.23%	4.09%	4.11%	4.06%	3.90%	3.86%	3.76%	3.88%	3.44%	3.34%	3.07%	3.17%	2.58%	2.49%	1.51%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.62%	2.52%	2.58%	3.07%	3.01%	3.62%	3.44%	3.85%	3.96%	4.22%	4.06%	4.18%	4.21%	4.11%	4.20%	3.98%	4.28%	3.95%	4.17%	3.88%	4.21%	3.70%	3.91%	3.55%	3.69%	3.03%	3.03%	2.00%
Miami Dolphins	1.35%	2.25%	2.26%	3.12%	2.88%	3.47%	3.20%	3.84%	3.49%	4.01%	3.82%	3.94%	4.15%	4.07%	4.12%	4.13%	4.15%	4.01%	4.44%	4.11%	4.39%	3.83%	4.13%	3.62%	4.11%	3.38%	3.33%	2.35%
Green Bay Packers	1.04%	1.41%	1.94%	2.12%	2.50%	2.65%	2.98%	3.18%	3.38%	3.72%	3.80%	4.30%	3.94%	4.49%	4.35%	4.91%	4.58%	5.15%	4.52%	4.90%	4.38%	4.70%	4.10%	3.98%	3.63%	3.45%	3.18%	2.70%
Seattle Seahawks	0.94%	1.52%	1.66%	2.27%	2.30%	2.70%	2.65%	3.06%	3.27%	3.39%	3.49%	3.62%	3.94%	3.87%	4.13%	4.00%	4.46%	4.35%	4.55%	4.40%	4.83%	4.48%	4.91%	4.38%	4.71%	4.21%	4.55%	3.35%
Phoenix Cardinals	0.76%	1.08%	1.52%	1.63%	1.96%	2.15%	2.56%	2.58%	2.79%	3.04%	3.47%	3.71%	3.64%	3.86%	4.15%	4.66%	4.55%	4.93%	4.89%	5.46%	4.84%	5.51%	4.69%	4.89%	4.52%	4.30%	4.01%	3.88%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.71%	1.39%	1.45%	1.93%	2.03%	2.43%	2.36%	2.88%	2.86%	3.30%	3.16%	3.51%	3.68%	4.05%	3.93%	3.96%	4.30%	4.28%	4.66%	4.56%	5.02%	4.51%	5.06%	4.80%	5.38%	4.70%	5.13%	3.96%
New England Patriots	0.70%	1.21%	1.40%	1.90%	1.90%	2.37%	2.37%	2.77%	2.79%	3.01%	3.08%	3.41%	3.57%	3.77%	4.01%	3.87%	4.31%	4.13%	4.78%	4.39%	5.02%	4.73%	5.25%	5.00%	5.61%	5.12%	5.31%	4.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.66%	1.19%	1.28%	1.62%	1.76%	1.99%	2.32%	2.56%	2.72%	2.82%	2.98%	3.23%	3.51%	3.63%	4.22%	4.12%	4.45%	4.32%	5.00%	4.84%	5.62%	5.24%	5.97%	5.58%	5.11%	5.07%	4.40%	3.82%
New York Jets	0.50%	0.91%	1.00%	1.49%	1.46%	1.79%	1.87%	2.27%	2.41%	2.69%	2.66%	3.05%	3.22%	3.46%	3.71%	3.74%	4.11%	3.92%	4.83%	4.71%	5.27%	4.88%	5.68%	5.58%	6.63%	5.90%	6.98%	5.29%
San Diego Chargers	0.37%	0.68%	0.79%	1.08%	1.27%	1.54%	1.62%	1.96%	2.06%	2.33%	2.39%	2.61%	2.98%	3.15%	3.46%	3.51%	4.01%	3.86%	4.76%	4.48%	5.22%	4.99%	5.93%	5.71%	7.06%	6.85%	8.27%	7.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	0.38%	0.56%	0.67%	0.93%	0.98%	1.25%	1.29%	1.61%	1.74%	2.12%	2.28%	2.58%	2.71%	3.05%	3.39%	3.77%	4.37%	4.52%	5.14%	5.23%	6.42%	5.84%	6.93%	6.74%	7.95%	7.93%	9.39%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.21%	0.35%	0.43%	0.61%	0.68%	0.91%	0.93%	1.27%	1.34%	1.64%	1.76%	2.07%	2.42%	2.71%	2.97%	3.44%	3.74%	4.26%	4.81%	5.12%	6.07%	6.35%	7.22%	7.68%	9.25%	9.62%	12.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%	0.15%	0.24%	0.30%	0.41%	0.46%	0.70%	0.72%	0.95%	1.07%	1.39%	1.45%	1.77%	1.95%	2.42%	2.73%	3.14%	3.40%	4.15%	4.81%	5.50%	6.65%	6.91%	8.88%	8.18%	10.16%	9.48%	11.94%
Dallas Cowboys	0.04%	0.09%	0.15%	0.19%	0.31%	0.31%	0.49%	0.53%	0.68%	0.71%	0.93%	1.02%	1.26%	1.49%	1.67%	1.87%	2.37%	2.64%	3.36%	3.87%	4.26%	5.05%	5.92%	7.13%	8.58%	11.07%	13.34%	20.66%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Denver Broncos	18.58%	16.59%	14.74%	7.95%	7.78%	34.35%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.40%	12.51%	8.87%	12.98%	9.35%	37.88%
Buffalo Bills	12.14%	12.67%	13.05%	7.99%	8.20%	45.96%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.83%	9.54%	6.95%	12.86%	9.78%	49.04%
Houston Oilers	9.43%	7.96%	6.23%	11.71%	9.60%	55.06%
Indianapolis Colts	6.34%	7.79%	9.16%	6.76%	7.61%	62.33%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.97%	6.22%	7.20%	6.80%	7.88%	66.93%
Miami Dolphins	4.50%	6.09%	7.15%	6.30%	7.11%	68.86%
Seattle Seahawks	3.11%	4.48%	5.64%	5.43%	6.35%	75.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.75%	3.89%	4.78%	5.00%	6.08%	77.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	2.90%	2.94%	5.37%	5.70%	80.66%
New England Patriots	2.38%	4.04%	5.43%	4.32%	5.49%	78.34%
New York Jets	1.78%	2.99%	4.48%	3.39%	4.74%	82.62%
San Diego Chargers	1.38%	2.32%	3.37%	3.12%	4.34%	85.47%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	31.98%	17.47%	10.35%	13.27%	8.27%	18.66%
Minnesota Vikings	13.33%	15.37%	16.24%	8.61%	9.16%	37.29%
New York Giants	10.95%	13.10%	12.73%	9.43%	9.40%	44.38%
Chicago Bears	9.34%	12.11%	13.74%	9.03%	9.95%	45.82%
Los Angeles Rams	8.53%	7.02%	5.23%	14.89%	11.75%	52.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.86%	9.81%	10.49%	8.92%	9.43%	53.50%
New Orleans Saints	7.16%	6.25%	4.73%	13.78%	11.46%	56.62%
Washington Redskins	5.94%	8.73%	9.69%	8.07%	9.52%	58.05%
Green Bay Packers	2.11%	4.02%	6.34%	4.79%	6.78%	75.96%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.53%	3.21%	4.52%	3.85%	5.67%	81.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.57%	1.29%	2.54%	1.90%	3.06%	90.65%
Detroit Lions	0.31%	0.84%	1.85%	1.34%	2.29%	93.37%
Atlanta Falcons	0.23%	0.39%	0.66%	1.33%	2.04%	95.35%
Dallas Cowboys	0.15%	0.39%	0.90%	0.79%	1.22%	96.55%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+14.73%

Fortress

57.14%0.45%42.41%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 51.56 Elo pts.

15 Elo

0.067 points per Elo point

040

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.34 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.44+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

10.3

Wide Open

124814

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

San Francisco 49ers, 1st of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

29.2%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.54 · As Expected: 1.54 to 2.12 · Elevated: 2.12 to 2.89 · High Variance: 2.89 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.13 · Close: 5.13 to 6.94 · Off Target: 6.94 to 9.06 · Well Off Target: 9.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.15 · As Expected: 3.15 to 5.24 · More Than Expected: 5.24 to 8.39 · Far More Than Expected: 8.39 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.91 wins

As Expected

01.935

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.93

Pinpoint

06.0415

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

98.90%

San Francisco 49ers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

1.22%

Dallas Cowboys

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

04.210

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.65

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Lopsided

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

25%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.22

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.02

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.57

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

33%

As Expected

0%39%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.89

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.30

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.056

Within Noise

00.0920.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	75.06%	75.06%	52.25%	34.94%	23.63%
Denver Broncos	59.36%	59.36%	35.42%	20.90%	9.91%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	52.89%	52.89%	30.16%	16.50%	7.29%
New York Giants	47.13%	47.13%	24.37%	11.93%	6.91%
Minnesota Vikings	54.18%	54.18%	26.21%	12.38%	6.84%
Buffalo Bills	46.93%	46.93%	25.40%	13.74%	6.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	41.41%	41.41%	22.81%	12.05%	5.19%
Los Angeles Rams	35.64%	35.64%	19.34%	8.89%	4.92%
Philadelphia Eagles	37.43%	37.43%	17.91%	8.19%	4.41%
New Orleans Saints	31.98%	31.98%	16.97%	7.71%	4.28%
Washington Redskins	33.28%	33.28%	15.54%	7.11%	3.86%
Houston Oilers	34.10%	34.10%	16.50%	7.45%	2.77%
Indianapolis Colts	30.34%	30.34%	14.27%	6.70%	2.56%
Chicago Bears	42.55%	42.55%	15.26%	5.20%	2.23%
Los Angeles Raiders	25.43%	25.43%	11.61%	5.04%	1.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	16.71%	16.71%	7.67%	3.43%	1.28%
Miami Dolphins	23.43%	23.43%	9.36%	3.80%	1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.61%	13.61%	6.26%	2.77%	1.05%
Seattle Seahawks	18.28%	18.28%	7.55%	3.03%	0.99%
Green Bay Packers	16.84%	16.84%	5.61%	2.02%	0.94%
New England Patriots	15.58%	15.58%	5.54%	1.96%	0.56%
San Diego Chargers	10.07%	10.07%	3.87%	1.50%	0.46%
New York Jets	11.85%	11.85%	3.58%	1.13%	0.29%
Phoenix Cardinals	11.98%	11.98%	3.18%	0.79%	0.25%
Detroit Lions	4.21%	4.21%	1.19%	0.36%	0.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.69%	5.69%	1.29%	0.31%	0.10%
Atlanta Falcons	3.38%	2.14%	0.54%	0.12%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	2.01%	1.89%	0.35%	0.06%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		50.1%2.38%	48.8%2.54%	47.9%1.56%	59.9%2.27%	55.8%0.60%	54.9%1.07%	59.0%1.39%	64.3%0.66%	63.0%0.42%	74.5%0.34%	60.3%1.16%	67.4%0.70%	62.0%1.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.9%2.38%		49.6%1.55%	45.7%2.45%	57.2%1.96%	56.8%2.14%	59.0%1.64%	57.9%2.13%	62.9%1.94%	68.4%1.47%	72.1%1.23%	61.5%0.92%	65.3%1.11%	62.8%1.72%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	51.2%2.54%	50.4%1.55%		48.3%2.40%	56.9%1.70%	58.0%2.18%	58.7%1.52%	58.1%2.15%	65.2%1.92%	69.4%1.45%	73.7%1.13%	60.6%0.92%	66.4%1.08%	62.8%1.79%
Denver Broncos	52.1%1.56%	54.3%2.45%	51.7%2.40%		62.6%2.11%	60.4%1.41%	63.5%0.46%	60.8%0.53%	65.1%1.28%	68.9%0.95%	76.2%0.77%	64.9%1.06%	69.0%0.31%	66.2%0.47%
Houston Oilers	40.1%2.27%	42.8%1.96%	43.1%1.70%	37.4%2.11%		46.2%1.91%	51.3%1.53%	51.5%2.10%	55.7%1.78%	60.3%1.40%	64.9%1.11%	53.1%0.83%	57.1%1.01%	54.8%1.60%
Indianapolis Colts	44.2%0.60%	43.2%2.14%	42.0%2.18%	39.6%1.41%	53.8%1.91%		49.1%0.95%	52.4%1.31%	56.7%0.58%	63.4%0.39%	66.5%0.33%	50.0%1.00%	57.6%0.59%	57.7%0.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	45.1%1.07%	41.0%1.64%	41.3%1.52%	36.5%0.46%	48.7%1.53%	50.9%0.95%		48.3%0.50%	54.1%0.90%	58.7%0.62%	64.7%0.53%	48.5%0.77%	52.0%0.20%	51.5%0.39%
Los Angeles Raiders	41.0%1.39%	42.1%2.13%	41.9%2.15%	39.2%0.53%	48.5%2.10%	47.6%1.31%	51.7%0.50%		53.7%1.22%	58.2%0.82%	66.7%0.69%	49.9%1.02%	59.2%0.31%	54.9%0.51%
Miami Dolphins	35.7%0.66%	37.1%1.94%	34.8%1.92%	34.9%1.28%	44.3%1.78%	43.3%0.58%	45.9%0.90%	46.3%1.22%		54.6%0.38%	57.3%0.29%	43.1%0.90%	57.0%0.60%	52.9%0.96%
New England Patriots	37.0%0.42%	31.6%1.47%	30.6%1.45%	31.1%0.95%	39.7%1.40%	36.6%0.39%	41.3%0.62%	41.8%0.82%	45.4%0.38%		60.0%0.18%	41.7%0.64%	50.5%0.47%	46.6%0.62%
New York Jets	25.5%0.34%	27.9%1.23%	26.3%1.13%	23.8%0.77%	35.1%1.11%	33.5%0.33%	35.3%0.53%	33.3%0.69%	42.7%0.29%	40.0%0.18%		33.6%0.56%	44.3%0.36%	37.5%0.60%
Pittsburgh Steelers	39.7%1.16%	38.5%0.92%	39.4%0.92%	35.1%1.06%	46.9%0.83%	50.0%1.00%	51.5%0.77%	50.1%1.02%	56.9%0.90%	58.3%0.64%	66.4%0.56%		55.5%0.49%	57.9%0.81%
San Diego Chargers	32.6%0.70%	34.7%1.11%	33.6%1.08%	31.0%0.31%	42.9%1.01%	42.4%0.59%	48.0%0.20%	40.8%0.31%	43.0%0.60%	49.5%0.47%	55.7%0.36%	44.5%0.49%		51.7%0.24%
Seattle Seahawks	38.0%1.10%	37.2%1.72%	37.2%1.79%	33.8%0.47%	45.2%1.60%	42.3%0.97%	48.5%0.39%	45.1%0.51%	47.1%0.96%	53.4%0.62%	62.5%0.60%	42.1%0.81%	48.3%0.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		28.6%0.41%	58.3%0.05%	48.3%0.06%	28.6%0.21%	21.9%0.27%	20.2%0.39%	18.6%0.25%	21.6%0.43%	22.9%0.41%	44.2%0.19%	12.1%0.22%	53.6%0.11%	24.5%0.37%
Chicago Bears	71.4%0.41%		74.1%0.24%	54.3%0.17%	51.6%0.66%	37.5%3.33%	32.5%0.45%	36.1%3.23%	34.9%2.10%	41.8%2.15%	63.6%1.09%	22.0%2.96%	59.8%0.24%	39.4%1.95%
Dallas Cowboys	41.7%0.05%	25.9%0.24%		28.3%0.05%	38.7%0.12%	18.2%0.35%	20.2%0.23%	20.2%0.33%	15.0%0.10%	25.4%0.11%	48.1%0.03%	10.7%0.27%	50.0%0.06%	23.5%0.07%
Detroit Lions	51.7%0.06%	45.7%0.17%	71.7%0.05%		47.6%0.08%	31.0%0.65%	25.0%0.16%	31.8%0.61%	26.9%0.41%	35.0%0.41%	52.9%0.19%	21.4%0.47%	57.6%0.03%	35.1%0.34%
Green Bay Packers	71.4%0.21%	48.4%0.66%	61.3%0.12%	52.4%0.08%		35.7%2.01%	39.3%0.60%	36.9%1.82%	33.1%1.29%	39.1%1.26%	56.2%0.67%	23.1%1.53%	61.5%0.12%	36.3%1.19%
Los Angeles Rams	78.1%0.27%	62.5%3.33%	81.8%0.35%	69.0%0.65%	64.3%2.01%		49.9%3.08%	51.9%2.98%	49.1%3.43%	51.9%3.34%	74.1%1.67%	32.8%1.43%	76.2%0.82%	52.1%3.29%
Minnesota Vikings	79.8%0.39%	67.5%0.45%	79.8%0.23%	75.0%0.16%	60.7%0.60%	50.1%3.08%		50.8%3.03%	47.6%2.05%	51.9%2.01%	75.3%1.03%	35.6%2.63%	72.5%0.27%	51.3%1.82%
New Orleans Saints	81.4%0.25%	63.9%3.23%	79.8%0.33%	68.2%0.61%	63.1%1.82%	48.1%2.98%	49.2%3.03%		47.5%3.21%	51.3%2.94%	73.3%1.62%	35.1%1.55%	76.3%0.72%	51.3%2.95%
New York Giants	78.4%0.43%	65.1%2.10%	85.0%0.10%	73.1%0.41%	66.9%1.29%	50.9%3.43%	52.4%2.05%	52.5%3.21%		53.7%0.85%	78.0%0.55%	37.0%2.85%	76.0%0.57%	51.2%0.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	77.1%0.41%	58.2%2.15%	74.6%0.11%	65.0%0.41%	60.9%1.26%	48.1%3.34%	48.1%2.01%	48.7%2.94%	46.3%0.85%		71.1%0.44%	33.9%2.84%	74.1%0.57%	48.3%1.01%
Phoenix Cardinals	55.8%0.19%	36.4%1.09%	51.9%0.03%	47.1%0.19%	43.8%0.67%	25.9%1.67%	24.7%1.03%	26.7%1.62%	22.0%0.55%	28.9%0.44%		14.8%1.39%	56.1%0.25%	25.7%0.41%
San Francisco 49ers	87.9%0.22%	78.0%2.96%	89.3%0.27%	78.6%0.47%	76.9%1.53%	67.2%1.43%	64.4%2.63%	64.9%1.55%	63.0%2.85%	66.1%2.84%	85.2%1.39%		86.5%0.68%	68.6%2.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	46.4%0.11%	40.2%0.24%	50.0%0.06%	42.4%0.03%	38.5%0.12%	23.8%0.82%	27.5%0.27%	23.7%0.72%	24.0%0.57%	25.9%0.57%	43.9%0.25%	13.5%0.68%		25.2%0.50%
Washington Redskins	75.5%0.37%	60.6%1.95%	76.5%0.07%	64.9%0.34%	63.7%1.19%	47.9%3.29%	48.7%1.82%	48.7%2.95%	48.8%0.99%	51.7%1.01%	74.3%0.41%	31.4%2.70%	74.8%0.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		51.4%7.53%	49.1%9.60%	45.7%9.05%	57.7%6.14%		60.6%2.95%	60.7%4.32%				61.5%2.65%	67.1%1.73%	65.2%2.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	48.6%7.53%			44.5%9.83%		54.9%4.77%	58.0%2.62%	57.9%4.00%	61.8%3.65%	67.7%2.58%	73.4%1.94%		65.6%1.63%	63.5%2.88%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	50.9%9.60%			46.7%11.97%		56.8%6.21%	59.3%3.45%	60.5%5.42%	65.1%4.64%	68.8%3.29%	71.4%2.36%		67.3%2.29%	63.6%3.68%
Denver Broncos	54.3%9.05%	55.5%9.83%	53.3%11.97%		63.0%8.20%	61.1%5.95%			66.8%5.14%	70.7%3.34%	75.8%2.53%	64.5%3.35%
Houston Oilers	42.3%6.14%			37.0%8.20%		48.8%4.11%	52.1%2.10%	52.5%3.18%	56.7%3.00%	59.2%2.02%	67.7%1.58%		59.2%1.27%	55.6%2.50%
Indianapolis Colts		45.1%4.77%	43.2%6.21%	38.9%5.95%	51.2%4.11%		51.9%1.91%	52.7%2.73%				51.7%1.65%	56.0%1.00%	58.2%2.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	39.4%2.95%	42.0%2.62%	40.7%3.45%		47.9%2.10%	48.1%1.91%			54.1%1.22%	58.8%0.94%	65.9%0.70%	48.9%0.83%
Los Angeles Raiders	39.3%4.32%	42.1%4.00%	39.5%5.42%		47.5%3.18%	47.3%2.73%			56.5%2.18%	58.1%1.31%	63.1%1.02%	51.1%1.29%
Miami Dolphins		38.2%3.65%	34.9%4.64%	33.2%5.14%	43.3%3.00%		45.9%1.22%	43.5%2.18%				46.6%1.18%	56.1%0.84%	51.3%1.60%
New England Patriots		32.3%2.58%	31.2%3.29%	29.3%3.34%	40.8%2.02%		41.2%0.94%	41.9%1.31%				41.2%0.71%	48.5%0.51%	45.8%0.89%
New York Jets		26.6%1.94%	28.6%2.36%	24.2%2.53%	32.3%1.58%		34.1%0.70%	36.9%1.02%				33.5%0.56%	40.3%0.37%	39.6%0.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.5%2.65%			35.5%3.35%		48.3%1.65%	51.1%0.83%	48.9%1.29%	53.4%1.18%	58.8%0.71%	66.5%0.56%		58.5%0.46%	55.1%0.95%
San Diego Chargers	32.9%1.73%	34.4%1.63%	32.7%2.29%		40.8%1.27%	44.0%1.00%			43.9%0.84%	51.5%0.51%	59.7%0.37%	41.5%0.46%
Seattle Seahawks	34.8%2.98%	36.5%2.88%	36.4%3.68%		44.4%2.50%	41.8%2.02%			48.7%1.60%	54.2%0.89%	60.4%0.80%	44.9%0.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.1%0.37%	38.1%0.02%	34.8%0.02%	34.0%0.10%		20.2%0.45%		20.1%0.41%	21.8%0.35%	44.8%0.09%		46.6%0.06%	22.7%0.26%
Chicago Bears	69.9%0.37%		74.8%0.30%			38.2%5.88%		39.0%5.38%	35.4%7.00%	37.9%5.43%	62.4%1.82%	24.8%11.67%		39.9%4.68%
Dallas Cowboys	61.9%0.02%	25.2%0.30%		26.1%0.02%	28.2%0.08%	15.5%0.25%	17.3%0.39%	18.0%0.21%				12.1%0.58%	45.5%0.03%
Detroit Lions	65.2%0.02%		73.9%0.02%			32.0%0.53%		32.4%0.43%	29.0%0.67%	30.8%0.55%	53.3%0.17%	20.1%1.36%		27.6%0.45%
Green Bay Packers	66.0%0.10%		71.8%0.08%			35.9%2.19%		36.6%1.82%	32.7%2.84%	37.0%2.17%	63.0%0.68%	22.7%5.05%		37.8%1.90%
Los Angeles Rams		61.8%5.88%	84.5%0.25%	68.0%0.53%	64.1%2.19%		47.6%7.68%		47.0%6.59%	51.3%5.45%	73.5%1.57%		75.5%0.80%	51.6%4.70%
Minnesota Vikings	79.8%0.45%		82.7%0.39%			52.4%7.68%		52.7%7.27%	47.2%8.48%	52.3%6.69%	74.7%2.22%	35.0%14.86%		53.7%6.14%
New Orleans Saints		61.0%5.38%	82.0%0.21%	67.6%0.43%	63.4%1.82%		47.3%7.27%		46.2%6.30%	49.3%4.53%	69.6%1.49%		76.1%0.67%	50.0%3.88%
New York Giants	79.9%0.41%	64.6%7.00%		71.0%0.67%	67.3%2.84%	53.0%6.59%	52.8%8.48%	53.8%6.30%				36.6%13.94%	74.8%0.89%
Philadelphia Eagles	78.2%0.35%	62.1%5.43%		69.2%0.55%	63.0%2.17%	48.7%5.45%	47.7%6.69%	50.7%4.53%				33.1%11.49%	73.6%0.77%
Phoenix Cardinals	55.2%0.09%	37.6%1.82%		46.7%0.17%	37.0%0.68%	26.5%1.57%	25.3%2.22%	30.4%1.49%				15.0%3.75%	62.6%0.20%
San Francisco 49ers		75.2%11.67%	87.9%0.58%	79.9%1.36%	77.3%5.05%		65.0%14.86%		63.4%13.94%	66.9%11.49%	85.0%3.75%		85.8%1.69%	67.1%10.68%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	53.4%0.06%		54.5%0.03%			24.5%0.80%		23.9%0.67%	25.2%0.89%	26.4%0.77%	37.4%0.20%	14.2%1.69%		25.5%0.58%
Washington Redskins	77.3%0.26%	60.1%4.68%		72.4%0.45%	62.2%1.90%	48.4%4.70%	46.3%6.14%	50.0%3.88%				32.9%10.68%	74.5%0.58%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		51.3%3.14%	50.6%4.75%	45.9%5.91%	59.3%2.28%	53.1%1.83%	57.2%1.15%	59.4%1.71%	63.6%1.10%	67.7%0.61%	68.2%0.37%	60.6%0.88%	67.5%0.58%	67.1%1.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	48.7%3.14%		49.5%4.32%	46.3%5.08%	56.7%1.93%	56.0%1.69%	58.6%0.90%	57.5%1.32%	57.7%1.16%	65.4%0.69%	72.2%0.49%	53.7%0.68%	60.8%0.47%	62.2%0.92%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.4%4.75%	50.5%4.32%		47.3%6.61%	58.7%2.84%	57.1%2.37%	57.8%1.29%	60.9%2.11%	62.6%1.60%	68.2%0.94%	68.2%0.56%	62.1%0.91%	66.9%0.64%	63.9%1.22%
Denver Broncos	54.1%5.91%	53.7%5.08%	52.7%6.61%		61.6%3.60%	61.2%3.16%	63.4%1.45%	64.3%2.19%	66.1%2.05%	69.9%1.25%	76.1%0.78%	63.6%1.29%	68.9%0.66%	65.2%1.38%
Houston Oilers	40.7%2.28%	43.3%1.93%	41.3%2.84%	38.4%3.60%		47.2%1.26%	50.5%0.65%	53.1%0.93%	55.9%0.83%	59.3%0.44%	66.7%0.32%	50.9%0.47%	58.8%0.31%	55.2%0.66%
Indianapolis Colts	46.9%1.83%	44.0%1.69%	42.9%2.37%	38.8%3.16%	52.8%1.26%		53.2%0.63%	51.4%0.95%	56.6%0.58%	63.5%0.32%	66.3%0.18%	53.4%0.44%	51.5%0.27%	58.2%0.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	42.8%1.15%	41.4%0.90%	42.2%1.29%	36.6%1.45%	49.5%0.65%	46.8%0.63%		49.7%0.39%	53.8%0.29%	60.7%0.22%	59.6%0.16%	50.0%0.22%	59.0%0.10%	54.1%0.22%
Los Angeles Raiders	40.6%1.71%	42.5%1.32%	39.1%2.11%	35.7%2.19%	46.9%0.93%	48.6%0.95%	50.3%0.39%		52.6%0.56%	61.0%0.31%	66.2%0.20%	47.1%0.41%	55.2%0.18%	49.4%0.35%
Miami Dolphins	36.4%1.10%	42.3%1.16%	37.4%1.60%	33.9%2.05%	44.1%0.83%	43.4%0.58%	46.2%0.29%	47.4%0.56%		53.7%0.19%	61.9%0.13%	45.6%0.28%	49.8%0.22%	47.4%0.38%
New England Patriots	32.3%0.61%	34.6%0.69%	31.8%0.94%	30.1%1.25%	40.7%0.44%	36.5%0.32%	39.3%0.22%	39.0%0.31%	46.3%0.19%		50.9%0.06%	43.7%0.17%	50.4%0.14%	42.5%0.20%
New York Jets	31.8%0.37%	27.8%0.49%	31.8%0.56%	23.9%0.78%	33.3%0.32%	33.7%0.18%	40.4%0.16%	33.8%0.20%	38.1%0.13%	49.1%0.06%		38.9%0.11%	38.5%0.07%	45.3%0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	39.4%0.88%	46.3%0.68%	37.9%0.91%	36.4%1.29%	49.1%0.47%	46.6%0.44%	50.0%0.22%	52.9%0.41%	54.4%0.28%	56.3%0.17%	61.1%0.11%		56.4%0.11%	52.4%0.27%
San Diego Chargers	32.5%0.58%	39.2%0.47%	33.1%0.64%	31.1%0.66%	41.2%0.31%	48.5%0.27%	41.0%0.10%	44.8%0.18%	50.2%0.22%	49.6%0.14%	61.5%0.07%	43.6%0.11%		53.6%0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	32.9%1.10%	37.8%0.92%	36.1%1.22%	34.8%1.38%	44.8%0.66%	41.8%0.57%	45.9%0.22%	50.6%0.35%	52.6%0.38%	57.5%0.20%	54.7%0.16%	47.6%0.27%	46.4%0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		35.6%0.04%	75.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	6.7%0.01%	34.4%0.03%	21.4%0.07%	29.6%0.03%	20.2%0.08%	21.4%0.06%	40.0%0.01%	14.1%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	20.6%0.03%
Chicago Bears	64.4%0.04%		83.3%0.02%	53.2%0.05%	51.1%0.32%	38.7%1.42%	36.2%1.89%	40.2%1.30%	34.9%2.08%	41.2%1.39%	59.1%0.22%	24.3%5.34%	54.5%0.06%	39.7%1.13%
Dallas Cowboys	25.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	24.1%0.03%	21.4%0.06%	11.5%0.03%	13.8%0.03%	31.6%0.02%		13.0%0.13%	50.0%<0.01%	38.9%0.02%
Detroit Lions	75.0%<0.01%	46.8%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%		48.1%0.03%	29.8%0.11%	34.7%0.12%	33.7%0.10%	26.1%0.15%	32.0%0.12%	63.6%0.02%	21.3%0.36%	100.0%<0.01%	29.6%0.12%
Green Bay Packers	93.3%0.01%	48.9%0.32%	100.0%<0.01%	51.9%0.03%		36.8%0.51%	38.0%0.62%	42.4%0.43%	39.1%0.73%	40.9%0.54%	57.9%0.08%	24.8%1.83%	51.7%0.03%	43.6%0.49%
Los Angeles Rams	65.6%0.03%	61.3%1.42%	75.9%0.03%	70.2%0.11%	63.2%0.51%		47.8%2.45%	50.0%1.47%	48.1%2.38%	50.8%1.72%	75.7%0.27%	35.6%7.34%	78.8%0.11%	49.8%1.49%
Minnesota Vikings	78.6%0.07%	63.8%1.89%	78.6%0.06%	65.3%0.12%	62.0%0.62%	52.2%2.45%		51.4%2.25%	48.2%3.61%	51.6%2.64%	71.5%0.42%	36.1%9.60%	77.5%0.12%	51.3%2.35%
New Orleans Saints	70.4%0.03%	59.8%1.30%	88.5%0.03%	66.3%0.10%	57.6%0.43%	50.0%1.47%	48.6%2.25%		47.4%2.14%	48.8%1.36%	70.1%0.25%	35.4%6.38%	70.7%0.10%	49.3%1.13%
New York Giants	79.8%0.08%	65.1%2.08%	86.2%0.03%	73.9%0.15%	60.9%0.73%	51.9%2.38%	51.8%3.61%	52.6%2.14%		53.7%2.33%	75.3%0.31%	36.5%8.33%	74.4%0.18%	51.2%2.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	78.6%0.06%	58.8%1.39%	68.4%0.02%	68.0%0.12%	59.1%0.54%	49.2%1.72%	48.4%2.64%	51.2%1.36%	46.3%2.33%		71.9%0.22%	34.3%6.04%	80.2%0.13%	50.8%1.35%
Phoenix Cardinals	60.0%0.01%	40.9%0.22%		36.4%0.02%	42.1%0.08%	24.3%0.27%	28.5%0.42%	29.9%0.25%	24.7%0.31%	28.1%0.22%		15.6%1.17%	52.6%0.02%	32.4%0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	85.9%0.16%	75.7%5.34%	87.0%0.13%	78.7%0.36%	75.2%1.83%	64.4%7.34%	63.9%9.60%	64.6%6.38%	63.5%8.33%	65.7%6.04%	84.4%1.17%		83.5%0.45%	66.2%5.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	48.3%0.03%	21.2%0.11%	22.5%0.12%	29.3%0.10%	25.6%0.18%	19.8%0.13%	47.4%0.02%	16.5%0.45%		35.7%0.10%
Washington Redskins	79.4%0.03%	60.3%1.13%	61.1%0.02%	70.4%0.12%	56.4%0.49%	50.2%1.49%	48.7%2.35%	50.7%1.13%	48.8%2.01%	49.2%1.35%	67.6%0.18%	33.8%5.13%	64.3%0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	76.5%0.02%	57.9%0.73%	80.0%0.01%	80.9%0.05%	56.2%0.28%	48.3%1.18%	46.7%1.76%	46.4%1.02%	45.3%1.60%	46.8%1.19%	65.7%0.10%	34.5%4.76%	70.0%0.04%	52.4%1.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	87.5%0.02%	57.0%0.62%	83.3%<0.01%	64.3%0.04%	54.3%0.26%	44.6%1.08%	47.7%1.51%	47.1%0.88%	42.2%1.47%	51.0%0.95%	66.7%0.10%	33.8%4.23%	77.4%0.03%	48.0%0.86%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.8%0.02%	62.4%0.87%	85.7%0.01%	65.2%0.07%	55.0%0.35%	46.8%1.44%	45.2%1.99%	46.3%1.32%	44.8%1.98%	49.0%1.34%	72.7%0.13%	35.8%5.75%	75.5%0.05%	47.9%1.18%
Denver Broncos	72.7%0.02%	63.1%1.12%	76.9%0.01%	58.7%0.06%	62.2%0.43%	50.4%1.88%	53.0%2.56%	51.0%1.55%	48.2%2.54%	52.2%1.68%	73.3%0.17%	37.6%7.36%	59.7%0.07%	51.6%1.44%
Houston Oilers	50.0%<0.01%	52.8%0.38%	50.0%<0.01%	65.2%0.02%	42.9%0.13%	42.8%0.68%	40.2%0.88%	41.0%0.64%	37.7%0.88%	41.8%0.63%	66.1%0.06%	28.0%2.61%	52.4%0.02%	41.3%0.51%
Indianapolis Colts	57.1%<0.01%	50.0%0.32%	66.7%<0.01%	74.2%0.03%	51.8%0.11%	42.8%0.58%	43.0%0.82%	44.2%0.52%	39.9%0.80%	45.4%0.55%	68.4%0.06%	26.9%2.35%	63.0%0.03%	42.5%0.52%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.7%<0.01%	54.9%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%	69.2%0.01%	51.3%0.08%	42.5%0.30%	40.0%0.43%	44.1%0.27%	32.2%0.39%	40.9%0.30%	70.6%0.03%	29.0%1.18%	50.0%0.02%	37.1%0.23%
Los Angeles Raiders	80.0%0.01%	55.5%0.25%	66.7%<0.01%	43.8%0.02%	45.5%0.10%	39.2%0.45%	35.2%0.63%	41.2%0.38%	36.3%0.64%	36.6%0.39%	65.7%0.03%	27.6%1.80%	60.0%0.01%	40.8%0.33%
Miami Dolphins	66.7%<0.01%	43.9%0.20%	50.0%<0.01%	64.3%0.01%	41.1%0.06%	35.3%0.34%	33.5%0.46%	36.0%0.34%	34.7%0.45%	38.9%0.30%	67.7%0.03%	25.1%1.29%	33.3%<0.01%	36.9%0.29%
New England Patriots	80.0%<0.01%	42.5%0.11%		40.0%0.01%	34.5%0.06%	25.9%0.17%	37.4%0.26%	30.7%0.14%	25.6%0.22%	33.7%0.19%	85.7%<0.01%	19.3%0.66%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.14%
New York Jets	50.0%<0.01%	34.3%0.07%		66.7%<0.01%	27.8%0.02%	33.7%0.09%	25.9%0.14%	21.4%0.08%	22.5%0.14%	37.2%0.09%	50.0%0.01%	18.5%0.39%	66.7%<0.01%	26.5%0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.0%<0.01%	58.6%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%	52.3%0.07%	40.2%0.26%	44.1%0.34%	37.2%0.23%	41.7%0.32%	37.9%0.23%	56.2%0.02%	29.9%0.96%	80.0%0.01%	33.0%0.20%
San Diego Chargers	100.0%<0.01%	48.7%0.08%		75.0%<0.01%	44.0%0.03%	32.7%0.15%	33.0%0.21%	26.5%0.10%	34.1%0.17%	30.8%0.12%	60.0%0.01%	22.6%0.51%	100.0%<0.01%	38.7%0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	60.0%0.01%	49.3%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%	44.3%0.07%	37.0%0.27%	34.0%0.38%	32.9%0.24%	34.1%0.33%	38.1%0.23%	58.1%0.03%	26.0%1.09%	87.5%<0.01%	29.7%0.21%
Atlanta Falcons															23.5%0.02%	12.5%0.02%	31.2%0.02%	27.3%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears															42.1%0.73%	43.0%0.62%	37.6%0.87%	36.9%1.12%	47.2%0.38%	50.0%0.32%	45.1%0.18%	44.5%0.25%	56.1%0.20%	57.5%0.11%	65.7%0.07%	41.4%0.13%	51.3%0.08%	50.7%0.15%
Dallas Cowboys															20.0%0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%	23.1%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions															19.1%0.05%	35.7%0.04%	34.8%0.07%	41.3%0.06%	34.8%0.02%	25.8%0.03%	30.8%0.01%	56.2%0.02%	35.7%0.01%	60.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	69.2%0.01%
Green Bay Packers															43.8%0.28%	45.7%0.26%	45.0%0.35%	37.8%0.43%	57.1%0.13%	48.2%0.11%	48.7%0.08%	54.5%0.10%	58.9%0.06%	65.5%0.06%	72.2%0.02%	47.7%0.07%	56.0%0.03%	55.7%0.07%
Los Angeles Rams															51.7%1.18%	55.4%1.08%	53.2%1.44%	49.6%1.88%	57.2%0.68%	57.2%0.58%	57.5%0.30%	60.8%0.45%	64.7%0.34%	74.1%0.17%	66.3%0.09%	59.8%0.26%	67.3%0.15%	63.0%0.27%
Minnesota Vikings															53.3%1.76%	52.3%1.51%	54.8%1.99%	47.0%2.56%	59.8%0.88%	57.0%0.82%	60.0%0.43%	64.8%0.63%	66.5%0.46%	62.6%0.26%	74.1%0.14%	55.9%0.34%	67.0%0.21%	66.0%0.38%
New Orleans Saints															53.6%1.02%	52.9%0.88%	53.7%1.32%	49.0%1.55%	59.0%0.64%	55.8%0.52%	55.9%0.27%	58.8%0.38%	64.0%0.34%	69.3%0.14%	78.6%0.08%	62.8%0.23%	73.5%0.10%	67.1%0.24%
New York Giants															54.7%1.60%	57.8%1.47%	55.2%1.98%	51.8%2.54%	62.3%0.88%	60.1%0.80%	67.8%0.39%	63.7%0.64%	65.3%0.45%	74.4%0.22%	77.5%0.14%	58.3%0.32%	65.9%0.17%	65.9%0.33%
Philadelphia Eagles															53.2%1.19%	49.0%0.95%	51.0%1.34%	47.8%1.68%	58.2%0.63%	54.6%0.55%	59.1%0.30%	63.4%0.39%	61.1%0.30%	66.3%0.19%	62.8%0.09%	62.1%0.23%	69.2%0.12%	61.9%0.23%
Phoenix Cardinals															34.3%0.10%	33.3%0.10%	27.3%0.13%	26.7%0.17%	33.9%0.06%	31.6%0.06%	29.4%0.03%	34.3%0.03%	32.3%0.03%	14.3%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	43.8%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	41.9%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers															65.5%4.76%	66.2%4.23%	64.2%5.75%	62.4%7.36%	72.0%2.61%	73.1%2.35%	71.0%1.18%	72.4%1.80%	74.9%1.29%	80.7%0.66%	81.5%0.39%	70.1%0.96%	77.4%0.51%	74.0%1.09%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															30.0%0.04%	22.6%0.03%	24.5%0.05%	40.3%0.07%	47.6%0.02%	37.0%0.03%	50.0%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															47.6%1.01%	52.0%0.86%	52.1%1.18%	48.4%1.44%	58.7%0.51%	57.5%0.52%	62.9%0.23%	59.2%0.33%	63.1%0.29%	66.7%0.14%	73.5%0.08%	67.0%0.20%	61.3%0.11%	70.3%0.21%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	70.11%	47.97%	30.72%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	66.81%	40.26%	17.47%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New York Giants	100.00%	57.77%	22.81%	12.33%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	57.44%	27.19%	11.08%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	36.59%	15.34%	8.25%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	42.56%	20.24%	8.17%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	44.41%	19.12%	6.87%	3.88%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	55.58%	16.41%	7.01%	3.65%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	57.16%	18.82%	6.88%	2.42%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.84%	14.37%	5.42%	2.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Oilers		57.2%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Rams		44.4%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	55.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		42.6%100.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	57.4%100.00%
Denver Broncos				67.1%57.16%	66.5%42.84%
Houston Oilers			32.9%57.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers			33.5%42.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams			43.1%44.41%
Minnesota Vikings			41.6%55.58%		30.4%44.41%
New York Giants	56.9%44.41%	58.4%55.58%
Philadelphia Eagles					29.5%55.58%
San Francisco 49ers		69.6%44.41%		70.5%55.58%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills			40.0%28.36%	63.0%8.05%	62.1%6.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			39.5%38.45%	63.7%10.77%	62.5%8.22%
Denver Broncos	60.0%28.36%	60.5%38.45%
Houston Oilers	37.0%8.05%	36.3%10.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	37.9%6.15%	37.5%8.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams		44.2%5.83%			32.3%13.29%
Minnesota Vikings	55.8%5.83%		42.9%7.65%	56.7%6.77%	30.4%16.34%
New York Giants		57.1%7.65%		57.7%9.64%	31.8%40.48%
Philadelphia Eagles		43.3%6.77%	42.3%9.64%
San Francisco 49ers	67.7%13.29%	69.6%16.34%	68.2%40.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills	42.6%1.33%	44.7%3.03%	46.3%4.68%	48.0%1.40%	34.8%9.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	42.5%1.92%	46.2%4.17%	45.1%6.12%	46.7%1.87%	35.9%13.11%
Denver Broncos	46.6%2.77%	48.6%6.25%	47.8%9.19%	50.0%2.90%	38.1%19.15%
Houston Oilers	39.1%0.49%	39.6%1.05%	40.3%1.61%	39.7%0.46%	30.1%3.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.4%0.37%	41.9%0.84%	41.7%1.22%	46.4%0.38%	32.5%2.61%
Los Angeles Rams						57.4%1.33%	57.5%1.92%	53.4%2.77%	60.9%0.49%	63.6%0.37%
Minnesota Vikings						55.3%3.03%	53.8%4.17%	51.4%6.25%	60.4%1.05%	58.1%0.84%
New York Giants						53.7%4.68%	54.9%6.12%	52.2%9.19%	59.7%1.61%	58.3%1.22%
Philadelphia Eagles						52.0%1.40%	53.3%1.87%	50.0%2.90%	60.3%0.46%	53.6%0.38%
San Francisco 49ers						65.2%9.81%	64.1%13.11%	61.9%19.15%	69.9%3.28%	67.5%2.61%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 30.72% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

55.88%

Win Prob

70.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

57.55%

Win Prob

68.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.60%

Win Prob

61.91%

Denver Broncos 17.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

57.39%

Win Prob

67.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

57.77%

Win Prob

60.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.75%

Win Prob

38.09%

New York Giants 12.33% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.22%

Win Prob

58.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.45%

Win Prob

31.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.88%

Win Prob

52.15%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 11.08% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

55.86%

Win Prob

39.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.46%

Win Prob

35.87%

Minnesota Vikings 8.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

63.15%

Win Prob

41.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

32.36%

Win Prob

30.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.89%

Win Prob

51.36%

Buffalo Bills 8.17% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

56.08%

Win Prob

40.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.76%

Win Prob

34.76%

Los Angeles Rams 3.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.51%

Win Prob

32.34%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.12%

Win Prob

53.38%

Philadelphia Eagles 3.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.58%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

58.15%

Win Prob

42.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.66%

Win Prob

50.00%

Houston Oilers 2.42% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.16%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.77%

Win Prob

36.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.71%

Win Prob

30.09%

Pittsburgh Steelers 2.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.84%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

56.93%

Win Prob

37.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

41.97%

Win Prob

32.45%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1989-09-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1447.03	1523.95	46.10%	53.38%	-12.20	0-1
1989-09-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1434.83	1444.01	55.81%	43.68%	+8.95	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 9-13	1443.78	1490.42	36.01%	63.50%	-6.03	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-23	1437.75	1456.63	39.76%	59.74%	-4.70	1-3
1989-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-26	1433.05	1557.73	26.45%	73.13%	-7.67	1-4
1989-10-15	New England Patriots	W 16-15	1425.38	1473.62	50.22%	49.26%	+4.12	2-4
1989-10-22	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 20-34	1429.50	1448.73	39.71%	59.79%	-12.44	2-5
1989-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1417.06	1541.98	26.42%	73.16%	-5.85	2-6
1989-11-05	Buffalo Bills	W 30-28	1411.21	1552.42	37.15%	62.36%	+7.37	3-6
1989-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-45	1418.58	1639.33	17.17%	82.52%	-9.31	3-7
1989-11-19	New Orleans Saints	L 17-26	1409.27	1544.43	37.96%	61.54%	-9.53	3-8
1989-11-26	@ New York Jets	L 7-27	1399.74	1415.78	40.15%	59.35%	-15.03	3-9
1989-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1384.71	1644.49	23.03%	76.58%	-6.95	3-10
1989-12-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-43	1377.76	1571.69	19.46%	80.19%	-8.30	3-11
1989-12-17	Washington Redskins	L 30-31	1369.46	1540.63	33.23%	66.30%	-2.79	3-12
1989-12-24	Detroit Lions	L 24-31	1366.67	1442.34	46.28%	53.20%	-10.24	3-13
1989-09-10	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1522.52	1482.92	48.02%	51.46%	+7.46	1-0
1989-09-18	Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1529.98	1521.60	58.28%	41.21%	-18.23	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 47-41	1511.75	1513.00	42.21%	57.28%	+11.73	2-1
1989-10-01	New England Patriots	W 31-10	1523.48	1473.81	63.91%	35.61%	+13.66	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-37	1537.14	1509.09	46.36%	53.12%	-18.60	3-2
1989-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1518.54	1565.39	50.42%	49.06%	+7.11	4-2
1989-10-22	New York Jets	W 34-3	1525.65	1459.09	66.11%	33.42%	+15.57	5-2
1989-10-29	Miami Dolphins	W 31-17	1541.22	1492.61	63.77%	35.75%	+11.20	6-2
1989-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1552.42	1411.21	62.36%	37.15%	-7.37	6-3
1989-11-12	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-7	1545.05	1514.33	61.36%	38.14%	+15.32	7-3
1989-11-19	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1560.37	1457.59	57.06%	42.43%	-14.31	7-4
1989-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-7	1546.06	1538.57	58.15%	41.34%	+14.26	8-4
1989-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1560.32	1455.98	57.28%	42.21%	-4.78	8-5
1989-12-10	New Orleans Saints	L 19-22	1555.54	1531.51	60.45%	39.05%	-8.75	8-6
1989-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-21	1546.79	1657.96	27.98%	71.59%	-7.77	8-7
1989-12-23	@ New York Jets	W 37-0	1539.02	1412.65	60.34%	39.16%	+19.94	9-7
1989-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-14	1536.03	1528.95	58.10%	41.39%	+6.00	1-0
1989-09-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-7	1542.03	1566.35	53.65%	45.83%	+21.35	2-0
1989-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 47-27	1563.38	1433.71	60.79%	38.71%	+14.49	3-0
1989-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-13	1577.87	1528.74	63.84%	35.68%	+11.18	4-0
1989-10-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-42	1589.05	1451.12	61.92%	37.59%	-13.69	4-1
1989-10-15	Houston Oilers	L 28-33	1575.36	1506.61	66.39%	33.14%	-12.40	4-2
1989-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1562.96	1537.40	46.01%	53.47%	-17.21	4-3
1989-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-10	1545.75	1535.53	58.54%	40.96%	+10.84	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-14	1556.59	1463.09	55.74%	43.74%	-4.66	5-4
1989-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-0	1551.93	1454.71	56.27%	43.21%	+16.17	6-4
1989-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-32	1568.10	1415.36	76.17%	23.44%	-6.36	6-5
1989-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1561.74	1496.70	51.68%	47.80%	-21.17	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-27	1540.57	1560.70	39.59%	59.91%	-10.99	6-7
1989-12-10	Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1529.58	1405.32	73.09%	26.49%	-19.29	6-8
1989-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 28-40	1510.29	1456.60	64.44%	35.08%	-18.65	6-9
1989-12-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-26	1491.64	1665.73	21.31%	78.32%	-9.10	6-10
1989-09-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1528.95	1536.03	41.39%	58.10%	-6.00	0-1
1989-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-10	1522.95	1446.21	67.41%	32.13%	+14.98	1-1
1989-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-14	1537.93	1568.53	52.75%	46.73%	+10.34	2-1
1989-10-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1548.27	1447.38	56.79%	42.70%	+7.15	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-16	1555.42	1468.67	54.79%	44.70%	+11.83	4-1
1989-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1567.25	1471.52	69.75%	29.80%	-15.42	4-2
1989-10-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 12-23	1551.83	1516.78	61.95%	37.55%	-17.16	4-3
1989-10-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 56-23	1534.67	1453.50	67.96%	31.58%	+15.19	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-28	1549.86	1501.32	49.30%	50.17%	-18.90	5-4
1989-11-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-26	1530.96	1527.99	42.80%	56.69%	-5.07	5-5
1989-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 42-7	1525.89	1393.61	73.98%	25.61%	+12.68	6-5
1989-11-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1538.57	1546.06	41.34%	58.15%	-14.26	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-0	1524.31	1576.98	35.21%	64.30%	+24.62	7-6
1989-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1548.93	1460.76	68.83%	30.72%	-15.21	7-7
1989-12-17	Houston Oilers	W 61-7	1533.72	1534.30	57.02%	42.46%	+26.11	8-7
1989-12-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-29	1559.83	1570.21	40.93%	58.56%	-9.69	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 51-0	1528.30	1475.85	49.87%	49.61%	+29.63	1-0
1989-09-17	New York Jets	W 38-24	1557.93	1494.52	65.70%	33.82%	+10.60	2-0
1989-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1568.53	1537.93	46.73%	52.75%	-10.35	2-1
1989-10-01	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1558.18	1549.24	58.36%	41.13%	+5.97	3-1
1989-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1564.15	1463.30	56.78%	42.70%	-8.22	3-2
1989-10-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1555.93	1456.84	70.16%	29.40%	-18.53	3-3
1989-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 27-7	1537.40	1562.96	53.47%	46.01%	+17.21	4-3
1989-10-29	Houston Oilers	W 28-17	1554.61	1534.85	59.86%	39.63%	+11.01	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-31	1565.62	1438.31	60.47%	39.03%	+10.83	6-3
1989-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-7	1576.45	1488.30	54.98%	44.50%	+11.78	7-3
1989-11-19	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1588.23	1450.66	74.56%	25.03%	-1.03	7-3
1989-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1587.20	1380.93	70.64%	28.92%	-10.22	7-4
1989-12-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1576.98	1524.31	64.30%	35.21%	-24.62	7-5
1989-12-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1552.36	1505.89	49.01%	50.47%	-10.04	7-6
1989-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-17	1542.32	1579.99	51.74%	47.74%	+9.78	8-6
1989-12-23	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-20	1552.10	1508.18	48.64%	50.84%	+8.51	9-6
1989-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-28	1458.77	1526.03	33.33%	66.20%	-14.76	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1444.01	1434.83	43.68%	55.81%	-8.95	0-2
1989-09-24	Washington Redskins	L 7-30	1435.06	1493.85	48.70%	50.78%	-19.54	0-3
1989-10-01	New York Giants	L 13-30	1415.52	1549.66	38.10%	61.40%	-13.15	0-4
1989-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-31	1402.37	1461.34	34.39%	65.13%	-12.22	0-5
1989-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1390.15	1599.79	28.52%	71.04%	-9.84	0-6
1989-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-36	1380.31	1443.60	33.83%	65.69%	-8.01	0-7
1989-10-29	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-19	1372.30	1461.16	44.40%	55.09%	-11.15	0-8
1989-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-3	1361.15	1510.27	23.81%	75.80%	+20.01	1-8
1989-11-12	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 20-24	1381.16	1463.15	31.48%	68.06%	-5.27	1-9
1989-11-19	Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1375.89	1503.08	39.04%	60.45%	-5.66	1-10
1989-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-27	1370.23	1534.07	34.17%	65.36%	-14.87	1-11
1989-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 31-35	1355.36	1561.72	28.91%	70.65%	-4.84	1-12
1989-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1350.52	1562.24	17.92%	81.76%	-4.74	1-13
1989-12-16	@ New York Giants	L 0-15	1345.78	1571.37	16.78%	82.91%	-5.43	1-14
1989-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1340.35	1475.24	38.00%	61.51%	-10.06	1-15
1989-09-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-20	1510.28	1464.61	63.38%	36.13%	+11.32	1-0
1989-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-14	1521.60	1529.98	41.21%	58.28%	+18.23	2-0
1989-09-24	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-21	1539.83	1489.85	63.95%	35.57%	+9.41	3-0
1989-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-16	1549.24	1558.18	41.13%	58.36%	-5.96	3-1
1989-10-08	San Diego Chargers	W 16-10	1543.28	1465.98	67.48%	32.06%	+6.57	4-1
1989-10-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 14-3	1549.85	1527.69	60.19%	39.31%	+10.92	5-1
1989-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1560.77	1503.67	50.54%	48.94%	+7.09	6-1
1989-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1567.86	1542.62	60.61%	38.89%	-10.13	6-2
1989-11-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1557.73	1467.99	69.02%	30.52%	+13.28	7-2
1989-11-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1571.01	1456.57	58.69%	40.80%	+5.91	8-2
1989-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1576.92	1504.52	52.73%	46.74%	+7.82	9-2
1989-11-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-14	1584.74	1467.86	72.25%	27.32%	+11.89	10-2
1989-12-03	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-16	1596.63	1506.27	55.30%	44.18%	-8.01	10-3
1989-12-10	New York Giants	L 7-14	1588.62	1557.80	61.38%	38.13%	-13.56	10-4
1989-12-16	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 37-0	1575.06	1429.09	63.00%	36.51%	+18.59	11-4
1989-12-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-19	1593.65	1444.11	63.48%	36.04%	-9.19	11-5
1989-09-10	Phoenix Cardinals	L 13-16	1449.72	1477.82	53.11%	46.37%	-7.69	0-1
1989-09-17	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1442.03	1524.52	31.41%	68.13%	-8.32	0-2
1989-09-24	Chicago Bears	L 27-47	1433.71	1563.38	38.71%	60.79%	-14.49	0-3
1989-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-23	1419.22	1448.89	52.88%	46.59%	-19.77	0-4
1989-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1399.45	1537.85	24.94%	74.65%	-5.53	0-5
1989-10-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-16	1393.92	1464.81	32.87%	66.66%	+5.57	1-5
1989-10-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-20	1399.49	1552.94	35.52%	63.99%	-10.72	1-6
1989-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1388.77	1458.30	33.04%	66.49%	-4.79	1-7
1989-11-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 31-35	1383.98	1523.84	24.79%	74.81%	-4.15	1-8
1989-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 31-22	1379.83	1467.75	44.53%	54.95%	+13.78	2-8
1989-11-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-42	1393.61	1525.89	25.61%	73.98%	-12.68	2-9
1989-11-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1380.93	1587.20	28.92%	70.64%	+10.21	3-9
1989-12-03	New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1391.14	1545.68	35.38%	64.14%	+14.18	4-9
1989-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1405.32	1529.58	26.49%	73.09%	+19.30	5-9
1989-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-7	1424.62	1418.52	57.96%	41.53%	+17.72	6-9
1989-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1442.34	1366.67	53.20%	46.28%	+10.25	7-9
1989-09-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-23	1463.59	1446.64	59.47%	40.02%	-7.03	0-1
1989-09-17	New Orleans Saints	W 35-34	1456.56	1540.80	45.05%	54.43%	+4.55	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 38-41	1461.11	1547.96	30.88%	68.67%	-4.48	1-2
1989-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-21	1456.63	1437.75	59.74%	39.76%	+4.71	2-2
1989-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-13	1461.34	1402.37	65.13%	34.39%	+12.21	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-26	1473.55	1543.37	33.00%	66.53%	-9.57	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1463.98	1486.93	39.20%	60.30%	-5.68	3-4
1989-10-29	Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1458.30	1388.77	66.49%	33.04%	+4.79	4-4
1989-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 14-13	1463.09	1556.59	43.74%	55.74%	+4.66	5-4
1989-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 22-31	1467.75	1379.83	54.95%	44.53%	-13.78	5-5
1989-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1453.97	1648.64	19.40%	80.26%	+13.39	6-5
1989-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-19	1467.36	1565.41	43.10%	56.39%	+4.72	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-16	1472.08	1426.88	48.82%	50.65%	+4.23	8-5
1989-12-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-21	1476.31	1487.01	55.59%	43.89%	-19.71	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-28	1456.60	1510.29	35.08%	64.44%	+18.64	9-6
1989-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-10	1475.24	1340.35	61.51%	38.00%	+10.06	10-6
1989-09-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-38	1520.11	1548.42	38.47%	61.03%	-17.92	0-1
1989-09-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1502.19	1444.57	50.61%	48.87%	+10.81	1-1
1989-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 41-47	1513.00	1511.75	57.28%	42.21%	-11.73	1-2
1989-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 39-7	1501.27	1482.11	59.78%	39.72%	+18.81	2-2
1989-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 13-23	1520.08	1460.15	50.94%	48.53%	-13.47	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-28	1506.61	1575.36	33.14%	66.39%	+12.40	3-3
1989-10-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-0	1519.01	1475.37	63.11%	36.40%	+15.84	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1534.85	1554.61	39.63%	59.86%	-11.01	4-4
1989-11-05	Detroit Lions	W 35-31	1523.84	1383.98	74.81%	24.79%	+4.15	5-4
1989-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-24	1527.99	1530.96	56.69%	42.80%	+5.07	6-4
1989-11-19	Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-7	1533.06	1514.00	59.76%	39.73%	+13.30	7-4
1989-11-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-34	1546.36	1451.69	55.91%	43.57%	-27.25	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-16	1519.11	1469.59	49.45%	50.03%	+11.07	8-5
1989-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1530.18	1422.64	71.16%	28.40%	+4.12	9-5
1989-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-61	1534.30	1533.72	42.46%	57.02%	-26.12	9-6
1989-12-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-24	1508.18	1552.10	50.84%	48.64%	-8.50	9-7
1989-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1512.32	1567.12	49.27%	50.20%	-10.09	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1502.23	1536.15	37.71%	61.80%	-11.81	0-2
1989-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-9	1490.42	1443.78	63.50%	36.01%	+6.03	1-2
1989-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 17-10	1496.45	1496.90	42.32%	57.17%	+12.64	2-2
1989-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 37-14	1509.09	1537.14	53.12%	46.36%	+18.60	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-14	1527.69	1549.85	39.31%	60.19%	-10.91	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-12	1516.78	1551.83	37.55%	61.95%	+17.17	4-3
1989-10-29	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1533.95	1460.95	66.93%	32.60%	-9.69	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-19	1524.26	1481.42	48.48%	50.99%	-9.93	4-5
1989-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1514.33	1545.05	38.14%	61.36%	-15.31	4-6
1989-11-19	New York Jets	W 27-10	1499.02	1427.08	66.80%	32.73%	+11.30	5-6
1989-11-26	San Diego Chargers	W 10-6	1510.32	1448.88	65.45%	34.07%	+5.70	6-6
1989-12-03	@ New England Patriots	L 16-22	1516.02	1466.33	49.47%	50.01%	-10.13	6-7
1989-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-17	1505.89	1552.36	50.47%	49.01%	+10.04	7-7
1989-12-17	Miami Dolphins	W 42-13	1515.93	1492.39	60.38%	39.12%	+17.63	8-7
1989-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-41	1533.56	1552.47	39.75%	59.74%	-19.68	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-34	1464.61	1510.28	36.13%	63.38%	-11.32	0-1
1989-09-17	Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-19	1453.29	1498.99	50.58%	48.90%	+9.14	1-1
1989-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-21	1462.43	1433.75	46.45%	53.03%	-15.05	1-2
1989-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-21	1447.38	1548.27	42.70%	56.79%	-7.15	1-3
1989-10-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-16	1440.23	1510.49	32.95%	66.58%	+11.13	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-20	1451.36	1484.41	37.82%	61.68%	-7.76	2-4
1989-10-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 36-28	1443.60	1380.31	65.69%	33.83%	+8.01	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1451.61	1459.53	41.28%	58.21%	-8.46	3-5
1989-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1443.15	1501.72	48.73%	50.75%	+13.42	4-5
1989-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1456.57	1571.01	40.80%	58.69%	-5.91	4-6
1989-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 10-10	1450.66	1588.23	25.03%	74.56%	+1.03	4-6
1989-11-26	Houston Oilers	W 34-0	1451.69	1546.36	43.57%	55.91%	+27.25	5-6
1989-12-03	Miami Dolphins	W 26-21	1478.94	1484.19	56.36%	43.12%	+8.07	6-6
1989-12-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-3	1487.01	1476.31	43.89%	55.59%	+19.71	7-6
1989-12-17	San Diego Chargers	L 13-20	1506.72	1429.19	67.51%	32.03%	-14.91	7-7
1989-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1491.81	1474.76	44.79%	54.69%	+7.92	8-7
1989-09-10	San Diego Chargers	W 40-14	1482.13	1461.43	59.99%	39.51%	+16.86	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-24	1498.99	1453.29	48.90%	50.58%	-9.14	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-31	1489.85	1539.83	35.57%	63.95%	-9.42	1-2
1989-10-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1480.43	1501.44	54.12%	45.36%	-9.05	1-3
1989-10-09	@ New York Jets	W 14-7	1471.38	1484.26	40.59%	58.91%	+13.03	2-3
1989-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1484.41	1451.36	61.68%	37.82%	+7.75	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1492.16	1537.37	36.20%	63.31%	-5.24	3-4
1989-10-29	Washington Redskins	W 37-24	1486.92	1524.68	51.72%	47.75%	+14.40	4-4
1989-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-7	1501.32	1549.86	50.17%	49.30%	+18.90	5-4
1989-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 12-14	1520.22	1449.16	52.54%	46.94%	-6.22	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-23	1514.00	1533.06	39.73%	59.76%	-13.30	5-6
1989-11-26	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1500.70	1471.89	61.10%	38.40%	+5.57	6-6
1989-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1506.27	1596.63	44.18%	55.30%	+8.00	7-6
1989-12-10	Phoenix Cardinals	W 16-14	1514.27	1432.82	68.00%	31.54%	+3.74	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1518.01	1475.97	48.37%	51.11%	-9.91	8-7
1989-12-24	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1508.10	1576.80	33.14%	66.39%	-11.44	8-8
1989-09-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-21	1523.95	1447.03	53.38%	46.10%	+12.20	1-0
1989-09-17	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1536.15	1502.23	61.80%	37.71%	+11.81	2-0
1989-09-24	Green Bay Packers	W 41-38	1547.96	1461.11	68.67%	30.88%	+4.48	3-0
1989-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-12	1552.44	1597.37	36.23%	63.28%	+5.29	4-0
1989-10-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-14	1557.73	1433.05	73.13%	26.45%	+7.66	5-0
1989-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1565.39	1518.54	49.06%	50.42%	-7.10	5-1
1989-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 21-40	1558.29	1519.22	62.49%	37.02%	-22.76	5-2
1989-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1535.53	1545.75	40.96%	58.54%	-10.84	5-3
1989-11-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1524.69	1552.75	38.50%	61.00%	-4.56	5-4
1989-11-12	New York Giants	W 31-10	1520.13	1591.86	46.84%	52.64%	+20.17	6-4
1989-11-19	Phoenix Cardinals	W 37-14	1540.30	1468.42	66.79%	32.74%	+13.15	7-4
1989-11-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1553.45	1553.96	42.31%	57.18%	+8.27	8-4
1989-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-31	1561.72	1355.36	70.65%	28.91%	+4.84	9-4
1989-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1566.56	1651.44	44.96%	54.52%	-6.51	9-5
1989-12-17	New York Jets	W 38-14	1560.05	1422.94	74.51%	25.08%	+10.28	10-5
1989-12-24	@ New England Patriots	W 24-20	1570.33	1445.87	60.08%	39.42%	+6.60	11-5
1989-09-10	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1482.92	1522.52	51.46%	48.02%	-7.45	0-1
1989-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 24-10	1475.47	1516.25	36.79%	62.72%	+19.61	1-1
1989-09-24	New York Jets	L 33-40	1495.08	1483.93	58.67%	40.83%	-12.97	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-39	1482.11	1501.27	39.72%	59.78%	-18.81	1-3
1989-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-10	1463.30	1564.15	42.70%	56.78%	+8.22	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1471.52	1567.25	29.80%	69.75%	+15.41	3-3
1989-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1486.93	1463.98	60.30%	39.20%	+5.68	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-31	1492.61	1541.22	35.75%	63.77%	-11.19	4-4
1989-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-13	1481.42	1524.26	50.99%	48.48%	+9.93	5-4
1989-11-12	@ New York Jets	W 31-23	1491.35	1438.82	49.88%	49.60%	+11.73	6-4
1989-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1503.08	1375.89	60.45%	39.04%	+5.67	7-4
1989-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-34	1508.75	1445.03	65.74%	33.78%	-24.56	7-5
1989-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-26	1484.19	1478.94	43.12%	56.36%	-8.07	7-6
1989-12-10	New England Patriots	W 31-10	1476.12	1476.46	57.06%	42.43%	+16.27	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-42	1492.39	1515.93	39.12%	60.38%	-17.63	8-7
1989-12-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1474.76	1491.81	54.69%	44.79%	-7.92	8-8
1989-09-10	Houston Oilers	W 38-7	1548.42	1520.11	61.03%	38.47%	+17.93	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-38	1566.35	1542.03	45.83%	53.65%	-21.35	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1545.00	1431.24	58.60%	40.90%	-17.65	1-2
1989-10-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-3	1527.35	1461.62	66.00%	33.52%	+10.50	2-2
1989-10-08	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1537.85	1399.45	74.65%	24.94%	+5.52	3-2
1989-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1543.37	1473.55	66.53%	33.00%	+9.57	4-2
1989-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1552.94	1399.49	63.99%	35.52%	+10.73	5-2
1989-10-30	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1563.67	1571.78	41.25%	58.24%	-10.92	5-3
1989-11-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-21	1552.75	1524.69	61.00%	38.50%	+4.56	6-3
1989-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1557.31	1427.48	60.81%	38.68%	+12.11	7-3
1989-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-10	1569.42	1530.05	47.99%	51.49%	-4.01	7-4
1989-11-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-20	1565.41	1467.36	56.39%	43.10%	-4.71	7-5
1989-12-03	Chicago Bears	W 27-16	1560.70	1540.57	59.91%	39.59%	+10.99	8-5
1989-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 43-17	1571.69	1377.76	80.19%	19.46%	+8.30	9-5
1989-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1579.99	1542.32	47.74%	51.74%	-9.78	9-6
1989-12-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-21	1570.21	1559.83	58.56%	40.93%	+9.69	10-6
1989-09-10	@ New York Jets	W 27-24	1508.09	1502.68	43.14%	56.34%	+8.16	1-0
1989-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1516.25	1475.47	62.72%	36.79%	-19.61	1-1
1989-09-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1496.64	1478.61	59.62%	39.87%	-22.83	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1473.81	1523.48	35.61%	63.91%	-13.66	1-3
1989-10-08	Houston Oilers	W 23-13	1460.15	1520.08	48.53%	50.94%	+13.47	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-16	1473.62	1425.38	49.26%	50.22%	-4.12	2-4
1989-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-37	1469.50	1609.63	24.76%	74.84%	-8.55	2-5
1989-10-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1460.95	1533.95	32.60%	66.93%	+9.69	3-5
1989-11-05	New York Jets	L 26-27	1470.64	1433.62	62.22%	37.29%	-5.20	3-6
1989-11-12	New Orleans Saints	L 24-28	1465.44	1536.58	46.93%	52.55%	-7.85	3-7
1989-11-19	Buffalo Bills	W 33-24	1457.59	1560.37	42.43%	57.06%	+14.30	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 21-24	1471.89	1500.70	38.40%	61.10%	-5.56	4-8
1989-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-16	1466.33	1516.02	50.01%	49.47%	+10.13	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-31	1476.46	1476.12	42.43%	57.06%	-16.27	5-9
1989-12-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1460.19	1474.91	40.33%	59.16%	-14.32	5-10
1989-12-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-24	1445.87	1570.33	39.42%	60.08%	-6.60	5-11
1989-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-0	1526.03	1458.77	66.20%	33.33%	+14.77	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 34-35	1540.80	1456.56	54.43%	45.05%	-4.55	1-1
1989-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1536.25	1447.05	55.13%	44.35%	-14.58	1-2
1989-10-01	Washington Redskins	L 14-16	1521.67	1513.38	58.27%	41.22%	-6.88	1-3
1989-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1514.79	1592.08	46.04%	53.44%	-7.71	1-4
1989-10-15	New York Jets	W 29-14	1507.08	1471.23	62.06%	37.45%	+12.14	2-4
1989-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 40-21	1519.22	1558.29	37.02%	62.49%	+22.76	3-4
1989-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-13	1541.98	1417.06	73.16%	26.42%	+5.85	4-4
1989-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1547.83	1628.08	31.69%	67.85%	-11.25	4-5
1989-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 28-24	1536.58	1465.44	52.55%	46.93%	+7.85	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-17	1544.43	1409.27	61.54%	37.96%	+9.53	6-5
1989-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1553.96	1553.45	57.18%	42.31%	-8.28	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1545.68	1391.14	64.14%	35.38%	-14.17	6-7
1989-12-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1531.51	1555.54	39.05%	60.45%	+8.75	7-7
1989-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-20	1540.26	1566.98	53.31%	46.17%	+12.21	8-7
1989-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 41-6	1552.47	1533.56	59.74%	39.75%	+19.69	9-7
1989-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1516.35	1511.94	43.00%	56.48%	+8.17	1-0
1989-09-17	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1524.52	1442.03	68.13%	31.41%	+8.32	2-0
1989-09-24	Phoenix Cardinals	W 35-7	1532.84	1500.92	61.53%	37.98%	+16.82	3-0
1989-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-13	1549.66	1415.52	61.40%	38.10%	+13.15	4-0
1989-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-21	1562.81	1517.56	48.83%	50.65%	-5.77	4-1
1989-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1557.04	1524.43	61.62%	37.88%	+5.49	5-1
1989-10-22	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1562.53	1455.11	57.71%	41.78%	+9.25	6-1
1989-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1571.78	1563.67	58.24%	41.25%	+10.92	7-1
1989-11-05	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 20-13	1582.70	1472.31	58.12%	41.37%	+9.16	8-1
1989-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-31	1591.86	1520.13	52.64%	46.84%	-20.17	8-2
1989-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 15-3	1571.69	1476.53	69.68%	29.87%	+8.66	9-2
1989-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-34	1580.35	1635.24	34.92%	64.59%	-9.24	9-3
1989-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1571.11	1548.93	60.19%	39.30%	-13.31	9-4
1989-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 14-7	1557.80	1588.62	38.13%	61.38%	+13.57	10-4
1989-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 15-0	1571.37	1345.78	82.91%	16.78%	+5.43	11-4
1989-12-24	Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-17	1576.80	1508.10	66.39%	33.14%	+11.44	12-4
1989-09-10	New England Patriots	L 24-27	1502.68	1508.09	56.34%	43.14%	-8.16	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1494.52	1557.93	33.82%	65.70%	-10.59	0-2
1989-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 40-33	1483.93	1495.08	40.83%	58.67%	+12.97	1-2
1989-10-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-17	1496.90	1496.45	57.17%	42.32%	-12.64	1-3
1989-10-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-14	1484.26	1471.38	58.91%	40.59%	-13.03	1-4
1989-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-29	1471.23	1507.08	37.45%	62.06%	-12.14	1-5
1989-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-34	1459.09	1525.65	33.42%	66.11%	-15.58	1-6
1989-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1443.51	1618.18	32.78%	66.75%	-9.89	1-7
1989-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 27-26	1433.62	1470.64	37.29%	62.22%	+5.20	2-7
1989-11-12	Miami Dolphins	L 23-31	1438.82	1491.35	49.60%	49.88%	-11.74	2-8
1989-11-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-27	1427.08	1499.02	32.73%	66.80%	-11.30	2-9
1989-11-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-7	1415.78	1399.74	59.35%	40.15%	+15.03	3-9
1989-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1430.81	1443.18	40.66%	58.83%	+8.52	4-9
1989-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-13	1439.33	1458.52	54.38%	45.10%	-16.39	4-10
1989-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1422.94	1560.05	25.08%	74.51%	-10.29	4-11
1989-12-23	Buffalo Bills	L 0-37	1412.65	1539.02	39.16%	60.34%	-19.94	4-12
1989-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-7	1515.21	1511.16	57.67%	41.82%	+17.14	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 42-37	1532.35	1503.76	46.44%	53.04%	+9.92	2-0
1989-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1542.27	1583.84	51.18%	48.30%	-13.53	2-1
1989-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1528.74	1577.87	35.68%	63.84%	-11.18	2-2
1989-10-08	New York Giants	W 21-19	1517.56	1562.81	50.65%	48.83%	+5.78	3-2
1989-10-15	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 17-5	1523.34	1462.76	51.04%	48.44%	+14.03	4-2
1989-10-22	Los Angeles Raiders	W 10-7	1537.37	1492.16	63.31%	36.20%	+5.25	5-2
1989-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1542.62	1567.86	38.89%	60.61%	+10.13	6-2
1989-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1552.75	1440.71	58.35%	41.14%	-8.44	6-3
1989-11-12	Washington Redskins	L 3-10	1544.31	1490.27	64.48%	35.03%	-14.26	6-4
1989-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-9	1530.05	1569.42	51.49%	47.99%	+4.02	7-4
1989-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-0	1534.07	1370.23	65.36%	34.17%	+14.86	8-4
1989-12-03	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1548.93	1571.11	39.30%	60.19%	+13.31	9-4
1989-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-10	1562.24	1350.52	81.76%	17.92%	+4.74	10-4
1989-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1566.98	1540.26	46.17%	53.31%	-12.22	10-5
1989-12-24	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-14	1554.76	1410.50	75.28%	24.32%	+8.39	11-5
1989-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1477.82	1449.72	46.37%	53.11%	+7.69	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-24	1485.51	1494.02	41.19%	58.30%	+15.41	2-0
1989-09-24	@ New York Giants	L 7-35	1500.92	1532.84	37.98%	61.53%	-16.82	2-1
1989-10-01	San Diego Chargers	L 13-24	1484.10	1448.81	61.98%	37.52%	-17.18	2-2
1989-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-30	1466.92	1520.27	35.12%	64.39%	-4.16	2-3
1989-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 5-17	1462.76	1523.34	48.44%	51.04%	-14.03	2-4
1989-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-20	1448.73	1429.50	59.79%	39.71%	+12.43	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-10	1461.16	1372.30	55.09%	44.40%	+11.15	4-4
1989-11-05	New York Giants	L 13-20	1472.31	1582.70	41.37%	58.12%	-9.16	4-5
1989-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1463.15	1381.16	68.06%	31.48%	+5.27	5-5
1989-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1468.42	1540.30	32.74%	66.79%	-13.15	5-6
1989-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-14	1455.27	1421.72	61.75%	37.76%	-5.16	5-7
1989-12-03	Washington Redskins	L 10-29	1450.11	1517.87	47.41%	52.07%	-17.29	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-16	1432.82	1514.27	31.54%	68.00%	-3.73	5-9
1989-12-16	Denver Broncos	L 0-37	1429.09	1575.06	36.51%	63.00%	-18.59	5-10
1989-12-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1410.50	1554.76	24.32%	75.28%	-8.40	5-11
1989-09-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-51	1475.85	1528.30	49.61%	49.87%	-29.64	0-1
1989-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-41	1446.21	1522.95	32.13%	67.41%	-14.97	0-2
1989-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-14	1431.24	1545.00	40.90%	58.60%	+17.65	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-3	1448.89	1419.22	46.59%	52.88%	+19.78	2-2
1989-10-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-26	1468.67	1555.42	44.70%	54.79%	-11.83	2-3
1989-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1456.84	1555.93	29.40%	70.16%	+18.53	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-27	1475.37	1519.01	36.40%	63.11%	-15.84	3-4
1989-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1459.53	1451.61	58.21%	41.28%	+8.46	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-34	1467.99	1557.73	30.52%	69.02%	-13.28	4-5
1989-11-12	Chicago Bears	L 0-20	1454.71	1551.93	43.21%	56.27%	-16.17	4-6
1989-11-19	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1438.54	1455.37	54.72%	44.76%	+6.49	5-6
1989-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-14	1445.03	1508.75	33.78%	65.74%	+24.56	6-6
1989-12-03	Houston Oilers	L 16-23	1469.59	1519.11	50.03%	49.45%	-11.07	6-7
1989-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 13-0	1458.52	1439.33	45.10%	54.38%	+16.39	7-7
1989-12-17	New England Patriots	W 28-10	1474.91	1460.19	59.16%	40.33%	+14.32	8-7
1989-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-22	1489.23	1400.80	55.02%	44.46%	+11.16	9-7
1989-09-10	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-40	1461.43	1482.13	39.51%	59.99%	-16.86	0-1
1989-09-17	Houston Oilers	L 27-34	1444.57	1502.19	48.87%	50.61%	-10.82	0-2
1989-09-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-6	1433.75	1462.43	53.03%	46.45%	+15.06	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 24-13	1448.81	1484.10	37.52%	61.98%	+17.17	2-2
1989-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1465.98	1543.28	32.06%	67.48%	-6.57	2-3
1989-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1459.41	1499.37	51.41%	48.07%	-4.30	2-4
1989-10-22	New York Giants	L 13-20	1455.11	1562.53	41.78%	57.71%	-9.25	2-5
1989-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-10	1445.86	1496.58	35.47%	64.05%	-5.15	2-6
1989-11-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1440.71	1552.75	41.14%	58.35%	+8.45	3-6
1989-11-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 14-12	1449.16	1520.22	46.94%	52.54%	+6.21	4-6
1989-11-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1455.37	1438.54	44.76%	54.72%	-6.49	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1448.88	1510.32	34.07%	65.45%	-5.70	4-8
1989-12-03	New York Jets	L 17-20	1443.18	1430.81	58.83%	40.66%	-8.52	4-9
1989-12-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-26	1434.66	1535.15	29.23%	70.32%	-5.47	4-10
1989-12-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1429.19	1506.72	32.03%	67.51%	+14.92	5-10
1989-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1444.11	1593.65	36.04%	63.48%	+9.18	6-10
1989-09-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-24	1567.12	1512.32	50.20%	49.27%	+10.10	1-0
1989-09-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-16	1577.22	1453.67	59.95%	39.54%	+6.62	2-0
1989-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-28	1583.84	1542.27	48.30%	51.18%	+13.53	3-0
1989-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 12-13	1597.37	1552.44	63.28%	36.23%	-5.29	3-1
1989-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1592.08	1514.79	53.44%	46.04%	+7.71	4-1
1989-10-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1599.79	1390.15	71.04%	28.52%	+9.84	5-1
1989-10-22	New England Patriots	W 37-20	1609.63	1469.50	74.84%	24.76%	+8.55	6-1
1989-10-29	@ New York Jets	W 23-10	1618.18	1443.51	66.75%	32.78%	+9.90	7-1
1989-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 31-13	1628.08	1547.83	67.85%	31.69%	+11.25	8-1
1989-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 45-3	1639.33	1418.58	82.52%	17.17%	+9.31	9-1
1989-11-19	Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1648.64	1453.97	80.26%	19.40%	-13.40	9-2
1989-11-27	New York Giants	W 34-24	1635.24	1580.35	64.59%	34.92%	+9.25	10-2
1989-12-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-10	1644.49	1384.71	76.58%	23.03%	+6.95	11-2
1989-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-27	1651.44	1566.56	54.52%	44.96%	+6.52	12-2
1989-12-17	Buffalo Bills	W 21-10	1657.96	1546.79	71.59%	27.98%	+7.77	13-2
1989-12-24	Chicago Bears	W 26-0	1665.73	1491.64	78.32%	21.31%	+9.09	14-2
1989-09-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1511.16	1515.21	41.82%	57.67%	-17.14	0-1
1989-09-17	Phoenix Cardinals	L 24-34	1494.02	1485.51	58.30%	41.19%	-15.41	0-2
1989-09-24	@ New England Patriots	W 24-3	1478.61	1496.64	39.87%	59.62%	+22.83	1-2
1989-10-01	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-20	1501.44	1480.43	45.36%	54.12%	+9.05	2-2
1989-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-20	1510.49	1440.23	66.58%	32.95%	-11.12	2-3
1989-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-16	1499.37	1459.41	48.07%	51.41%	+4.30	3-3
1989-10-22	Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1503.67	1560.77	48.94%	50.54%	-7.09	3-4
1989-10-29	San Diego Chargers	W 10-7	1496.58	1445.86	64.05%	35.47%	+5.14	4-4
1989-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-20	1501.72	1443.15	50.75%	48.73%	-13.42	4-5
1989-11-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1488.30	1576.45	44.50%	54.98%	-11.77	4-6
1989-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 3-15	1476.53	1571.69	29.87%	69.68%	-8.67	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-41	1467.86	1584.74	27.32%	72.25%	-11.88	4-8
1989-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 17-16	1455.98	1560.32	42.21%	57.28%	+4.78	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1460.76	1548.93	30.72%	68.83%	+15.21	6-8
1989-12-17	Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-17	1475.97	1518.01	51.11%	48.37%	+9.91	7-8
1989-12-23	Washington Redskins	L 0-29	1485.88	1543.41	48.88%	50.60%	-22.02	7-9
1989-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1446.64	1463.59	40.02%	59.47%	+7.03	1-0
1989-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1453.67	1577.22	39.54%	59.95%	-6.62	1-1
1989-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1447.05	1536.25	44.35%	55.13%	+14.57	2-1
1989-10-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-17	1461.62	1527.35	33.52%	66.00%	-10.50	2-2
1989-10-08	Chicago Bears	W 42-35	1451.12	1589.05	37.59%	61.92%	+13.69	3-2
1989-10-15	Detroit Lions	L 16-17	1464.81	1393.92	66.66%	32.87%	-5.57	3-3
1989-10-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-32	1459.24	1518.93	34.30%	65.22%	-5.74	3-4
1989-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-56	1453.50	1534.67	31.58%	67.96%	-15.19	3-5
1989-11-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-42	1438.31	1565.62	39.03%	60.47%	-10.83	3-6
1989-11-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1427.48	1557.31	38.68%	60.81%	-12.12	3-7
1989-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 32-31	1415.36	1568.10	23.44%	76.17%	+6.36	4-7
1989-11-26	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 14-13	1421.72	1455.27	37.76%	61.75%	+5.16	5-7
1989-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 16-17	1426.88	1472.08	50.65%	48.82%	-4.24	5-8
1989-12-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-20	1422.64	1530.18	28.40%	71.16%	-4.12	5-9
1989-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-33	1418.52	1424.62	41.53%	57.96%	-17.72	5-10
1989-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-31	1400.80	1489.23	44.46%	55.02%	-11.16	5-11
1989-09-11	New York Giants	L 24-27	1511.94	1516.35	56.48%	43.00%	-8.18	0-1
1989-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 37-42	1503.76	1532.35	53.04%	46.44%	-9.91	0-2
1989-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-7	1493.85	1435.06	50.78%	48.70%	+19.53	1-2
1989-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-14	1513.38	1521.67	41.22%	58.27%	+6.89	2-2
1989-10-08	Phoenix Cardinals	W 30-28	1520.27	1466.92	64.39%	35.12%	+4.16	3-2
1989-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1524.43	1557.04	37.88%	61.62%	-5.50	3-3
1989-10-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-28	1518.93	1459.24	65.22%	34.30%	+5.75	4-3
1989-10-29	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-37	1524.68	1486.92	47.75%	51.72%	-14.41	4-4
1989-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-13	1510.27	1361.15	75.80%	23.81%	-20.00	4-5
1989-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-3	1490.27	1544.31	35.03%	64.48%	+14.25	5-5
1989-11-20	Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1504.52	1576.92	46.74%	52.73%	-7.82	5-6
1989-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 38-14	1496.70	1561.74	47.80%	51.68%	+21.17	6-6
1989-12-03	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 29-10	1517.87	1450.11	52.07%	47.41%	+17.28	7-6
1989-12-10	San Diego Chargers	W 26-21	1535.15	1434.66	70.32%	29.23%	+5.48	8-6
1989-12-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-30	1540.63	1369.46	66.30%	33.23%	+2.78	9-6
1989-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-0	1543.41	1485.88	50.60%	48.88%	+22.02	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1990-01-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 30-34	1558.96	1560.61	42.40%	57.60%	-7.06	0-1
1990-01-06	Buffalo Bills	W 34-30	1560.61	1558.96	57.60%	42.40%	+7.05	1-0
1990-01-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-37	1567.66	1587.16	39.91%	60.09%	-13.28	1-1
1990-01-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-23	1584.46	1508.64	67.55%	32.45%	+2.70	1-0
1990-01-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1587.16	1567.66	60.09%	39.91%	+13.29	2-0
1990-01-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-55	1600.45	1701.74	35.82%	64.18%	-20.00	2-1
1989-12-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-26	1499.68	1500.39	57.27%	42.73%	-8.25	0-1
1989-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-7	1576.93	1563.15	44.58%	55.42%	+17.25	1-0
1990-01-07	@ New York Giants	W 19-13	1594.18	1588.24	43.47%	56.53%	+11.52	2-0
1990-01-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-30	1605.70	1688.07	31.63%	68.37%	-13.67	2-1
1990-01-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-41	1579.90	1674.82	30.09%	69.91%	-13.25	0-1
1990-01-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-19	1588.24	1594.18	56.53%	43.47%	-11.52	0-1
1989-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-21	1563.15	1576.93	55.42%	44.58%	-17.25	0-1
1989-12-31	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-23	1500.39	1499.68	42.73%	57.27%	+8.25	1-0
1990-01-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1508.64	1584.46	32.45%	67.55%	-2.70	1-1
1990-01-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-13	1674.82	1579.90	69.91%	30.09%	+13.25	1-0
1990-01-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-3	1688.07	1605.70	68.37%	31.63%	+13.67	2-0
1990-01-28	Denver Broncos	W 55-10	1701.74	1600.45	64.18%	35.82%	+19.99	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1989-11-19	19.40%	Green Bay Packers	1453.97	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1648.64	17
2	1989-11-19	23.44%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1415.36	32	@ Chicago Bears	1568.10	31
3	1989-11-05	23.81%	Dallas Cowboys	1361.15	13	@ Washington Redskins	1510.27	3
4	1989-12-10	26.49%	Detroit Lions	1405.32	27	@ Chicago Bears	1529.58	17
5	1989-11-23	28.92%	@ Detroit Lions	1380.93	13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1587.20	10
6	1989-10-15	29.40%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1456.84	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1555.93	7
7	1989-10-15	29.80%	Miami Dolphins	1471.52	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1567.25	13
8	1989-12-10	30.72%	Seattle Seahawks	1460.76	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1548.93	17
9	1989-12-17	32.03%	San Diego Chargers	1429.19	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1506.72	13
10	1989-10-29	32.60%	New England Patriots	1460.95	23	@ Indianapolis Colts	1533.95	20
11	1989-10-15	32.87%	Detroit Lions	1393.92	17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1464.81	16
12	1989-10-08	32.95%	Kansas City Chiefs	1440.23	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1510.49	16
13	1989-10-15	33.14%	Houston Oilers	1506.61	33	@ Chicago Bears	1575.36	28
14	1989-11-26	33.78%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1445.03	34	@ Miami Dolphins	1508.75	14
15	1989-11-12	35.03%	Washington Redskins	1490.27	10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1544.31	3
16	1989-12-17	35.08%	Green Bay Packers	1456.60	40	@ Chicago Bears	1510.29	28
17	1989-12-03	35.21%	Cincinnati Bengals	1524.31	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1576.98	0
18	1989-12-03	35.38%	@ Detroit Lions	1391.14	21	New Orleans Saints	1545.68	14
19	1989-12-24	36.04%	@ San Diego Chargers	1444.11	19	Denver Broncos	1593.65	16
20	1989-10-01	36.23%	Los Angeles Rams	1552.44	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1597.37	12
21	1989-09-17	36.79%	Miami Dolphins	1475.47	24	@ New England Patriots	1516.25	10
22	1989-10-22	37.02%	New Orleans Saints	1519.22	40	@ Los Angeles Rams	1558.29	21
23	1989-11-05	37.15%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1411.21	30	Buffalo Bills	1552.42	28
24	1989-11-05	37.29%	New York Jets	1433.62	27	@ New England Patriots	1470.64	26
25	1989-10-01	37.52%	San Diego Chargers	1448.81	24	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1484.10	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1989-09-10	29.64	Cleveland Browns (1st)	51	1528.30	49.87%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1475.85	49.61%
2	1989-11-26	27.25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	34	1451.69	43.57%	Houston Oilers	0	1546.36	55.91%
3	1989-12-17	26.12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	61	1533.72	57.02%	Houston Oilers	7	1534.30	42.46%
4	1989-12-03	24.62	Cincinnati Bengals	21	1524.31	35.21%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1576.98	64.30%
5	1989-11-26	24.56	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1445.03	33.78%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1508.75	65.74%
6	1989-09-24	22.83	Seattle Seahawks	24	1478.61	39.87%	@ New England Patriots	3	1496.64	59.62%
7	1989-10-22	22.76	New Orleans Saints	40	1519.22	37.02%	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1558.29	62.49%
8	1989-12-23	22.02	Washington Redskins	29	1543.41	50.60%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1485.88	48.88%
9	1989-09-17	21.35	@ Chicago Bears	38	1542.03	53.65%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1566.35	45.83%
10	1989-11-26	21.17	@ Washington Redskins	38	1496.70	47.80%	Chicago Bears	14	1561.74	51.68%
11	1989-11-12	20.17	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1520.13	46.84%	New York Giants	10	1591.86	52.64%
12	1989-11-05	20.01	Dallas Cowboys	13	1361.15	23.81%	@ Washington Redskins	3	1510.27	75.80%
13	1990-01-28 *	20.00	@ San Francisco 49ers	55	1701.74	64.18%	Denver Broncos	10	1600.45	35.82%
14	1989-12-23	19.94	Buffalo Bills	37	1539.02	60.34%	@ New York Jets	0	1412.65	39.16%
15	1989-10-01	19.78	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1448.89	46.59%	@ Detroit Lions	3	1419.22	52.88%
16	1989-12-10	19.71	Kansas City Chiefs	21	1487.01	43.89%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1476.31	55.59%
17	1989-12-24	19.69	@ New Orleans Saints	41	1552.47	59.74%	Indianapolis Colts	6	1533.56	39.75%
18	1989-09-17	19.61	Miami Dolphins	24	1475.47	36.79%	@ New England Patriots	10	1516.25	62.72%
19	1989-09-24	19.54	Washington Redskins	30	1493.85	50.78%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1435.06	48.70%
20	1989-12-10	19.30	Detroit Lions	27	1405.32	26.49%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1529.58	73.09%
21	1989-11-05	18.90	@ Los Angeles Raiders	28	1501.32	50.17%	Cincinnati Bengals	7	1549.86	49.30%
22	1989-10-01	18.81	@ Houston Oilers	39	1501.27	59.78%	Miami Dolphins	7	1482.11	39.72%
23	1989-12-17	18.65	Green Bay Packers	40	1456.60	35.08%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1510.29	64.44%
24	1989-10-08	18.60	@ Indianapolis Colts	37	1509.09	53.12%	Buffalo Bills	14	1537.14	46.36%
25	1989-12-16	18.59	Denver Broncos	37	1575.06	63.00%	@ Phoenix Cardinals	0	1429.09	36.51%