1988 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1984

Runner-Up

Cincinnati Bengals

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1981

Biggest Overachiever

Cincinnati Bengals

3.54 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.46 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Cowboys

3.70 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.70 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	12	4	.750	-	448	329	+119	8.46	+3.54
2	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	304	288	+16	9.35	+0.65
3	Houston Oilers Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	424	365	+59	8.15	+1.85
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	11	.312	7	336	421	-85	7.10	-2.10

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	12	4	0	.750	-	329	237	+92	8.46	+3.54
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	7	0	.562	3	354	315	+39	8.00	+1.00
3	New England Patriots	9	7	0	.562	3	250	284	-34	8.33	+0.67
4	New York Jets	8	7	1	.531	3.5	372	354	+18	7.79	+0.71
5	Miami Dolphins	6	10	0	.375	6	319	380	-61	8.06	-2.06

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	9	7	0	.562	-	339	329	+10	8.42	+0.58
2	Denver Broncos	8	8	0	.500	1	327	352	-25	8.81	-0.81
3	Los Angeles Raiders	7	9	0	.438	2	325	369	-44	7.67	-0.67
4	San Diego Chargers	6	10	0	.375	3	231	332	-101	6.65	-0.65
5	Kansas City Chiefs	4	11	1	.281	4.5	254	320	-66	7.05	-2.55

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	12	4	.750	-	312	215	+97	9.78	+2.22
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	406	233	+173	9.49	+1.51
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	7	261	350	-89	6.17	-1.17
4	Detroit Lions	4	12	.250	8	220	313	-93	6.59	-2.59
5	Green Bay Packers	4	12	.250	8	240	315	-75	6.78	-2.78

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	10	6	.625	-	379	319	+60	8.18	+1.82
2	New York Giants	10	6	.625	-	359	304	+55	8.52	+1.48
3	Washington Redskins	7	9	.438	3	345	387	-42	9.01	-2.01
4	Phoenix Cardinals	7	9	.438	3	344	398	-54	7.63	-0.63
5	Dallas Cowboys	3	13	.188	7	265	381	-116	6.70	-3.70

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	6	.625	-	369	294	+75	9.60	+0.40
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	.625	-	407	293	+114	8.38	+1.62
3	New Orleans Saints	10	6	.625	-	312	283	+29	9.04	+0.96
4	Atlanta Falcons	5	11	.312	5	244	315	-71	5.85	-0.85

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Oilers 24

Cleveland Browns (1st) 23

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Cincinnati Bengals 21

Seattle Seahawks 13

Dec 31

Buffalo Bills 17

Houston Oilers 10

Jan 1

Conference Championship

Cincinnati Bengals 21

Buffalo Bills 10

Jan 8

NFC

Wild Card Round

Minnesota Vikings 28

Los Angeles Rams 17

Dec 26

Divisional Round

Chicago Bears 20

Philadelphia Eagles 12

Dec 31

San Francisco 49ers 34

Minnesota Vikings 9

Jan 1

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 28

Chicago Bears 3

Jan 8

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 20

Cincinnati Bengals 16

Jan 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1588	10	9.60	+0.40	68.24%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1587	11	9.49	+1.51	85.79%	2	6	8	9	11	13	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1581	12	9.78	+2.22	93.16%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1562	10	9.35	+0.65	72.71%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1552	10	9.04	+0.96	78.24%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1550	10	8.38	+1.62	86.73%	0	5	7	8	10	11	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1548	12	8.46	+3.54	98.39%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1546	12	8.46	+3.54	98.49%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1542	10	8.15	+1.85	88.82%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1536	10	8.18	+1.82	88.91%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1532	10	8.52	+1.48	85.11%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1529	9	8.42	+0.58	71.41%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1523	9	8.00	+1.00	78.46%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1523	7	9.01	-2.01	22.43%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1521	8	8.81	-0.81	44.12%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1518	9	8.33	+0.67	73.02%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1505	8.5	7.79	+0.71	64.93%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1468	6	8.06	-2.06	21.92%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1467	7	7.67	-0.67	47.50%	0	4	6	8	9	11	16
Phoenix Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1460	7	7.63	-0.63	48.29%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1453	5	7.10	-2.10	21.27%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1434	6	6.65	-0.65	48.34%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1429	4.5	7.05	-2.55	9.59%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1427	4	6.78	-2.78	12.01%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1416	3	6.70	-3.70	4.58%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1403	4	6.59	-2.59	14.02%	0	3	5	7	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1400	5	6.17	-1.17	37.46%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1398	5	5.85	-0.85	44.04%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	-
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	-
New York Jets	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Phoenix Cardinals	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.89%	2.68%	1.56%	1.12%	1.34%	0.45%	1.12%	9.15%
7–13	2.68%	5.80%	4.91%	2.90%	2.23%	0.22%	0.67%	19.42%
14–20	1.56%	4.91%	6.25%	6.03%	2.68%	1.79%	0.67%	23.88%
21–27	1.12%	2.90%	6.03%	8.04%	2.90%	2.23%	0.67%	23.88%
28–34	1.34%	2.23%	2.68%	2.90%	2.23%	1.34%	0.45%	13.17%
35–41	0.45%	0.22%	1.79%	2.23%	1.34%	0.45%	0.22%	6.70%
42+	1.12%	0.67%	0.67%	0.67%	0.45%	0.22%	—	3.79%
Total	9.15%	19.42%	23.88%	23.88%	13.17%	6.70%	3.79%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.26	20.26	+0.00
SD	10.64	10.64	14.97
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.69	-4.44
SD	8.82	10.36	13.20
CV	0.58	0.53	—
Max	34	33	+20
Min	0	0	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.56	14.81	+5.75
SD	11.91	9.81	13.32
CV	0.58	0.66	—
Max	37	35	+28
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	13.44	+6.06
SD	9.69	9.63	16.21
CV	0.50	0.72	—
Max	34	31	+27
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.00	20.56	+7.44
SD	11.20	8.32	16.09
CV	0.40	0.40	—
Max	45	41	+35
Min	6	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	18.00	+1.00
SD	8.66	9.56	11.99
CV	0.46	0.53	—
Max	31	38	+20
Min	3	3	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.56	23.81	-7.25
SD	7.09	8.73	11.33
CV	0.43	0.37	—
Max	26	43	+7
Min	3	12	-40

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.44	22.00	-1.56
SD	9.27	15.77	20.24
CV	0.45	0.72	—
Max	35	55	+31
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	56.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.75	19.56	-5.81
SD	8.14	8.91	12.41
CV	0.59	0.46	—
Max	31	44	+16
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	19.69	-4.69
SD	12.56	8.31	18.28
CV	0.84	0.42	—
Max	45	34	+42
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	—	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.50	22.81	+3.69
SD	11.28	12.99	19.12
CV	0.43	0.57	—
Max	41	45	+35
Min	3	6	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	19.69	+2.44
SD	12.40	9.12	12.81
CV	0.56	0.46	—
Max	55	34	+32
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.88	20.00	-4.12
SD	9.74	8.82	7.58
CV	0.61	0.44	—
Max	38	34	+7
Min	3	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	—	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	23.06	-2.75
SD	9.47	13.44	10.31
CV	0.47	0.58	—
Max	37	45	+11
Min	6	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	50.00%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.44	18.31	+7.12
SD	9.13	13.09	15.06
CV	0.36	0.71	—
Max	45	41	+33
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	23.75	-3.81
SD	11.19	12.36	12.24
CV	0.56	0.52	—
Max	38	44	+17
Min	3	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.38	14.56	+10.81
SD	14.54	10.16	20.01
CV	0.57	0.70	—
Max	49	34	+42
Min	6	0	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.62	17.75	-2.12
SD	8.59	12.13	17.78
CV	0.55	0.68	—
Max	30	45	+25
Min	3	3	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	17.69	+1.81
SD	9.68	11.52	16.46
CV	0.50	0.65	—
Max	42	45	+42
Min	3	0	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	37.50%	18.75%	37.50%	—	—	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.44	19.00	+3.44
SD	8.79	9.39	12.81
CV	0.39	0.49	—
Max	44	45	+37
Min	12	7	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	22.12	+1.12
SD	12.77	12.49	17.94
CV	0.55	0.56	—
Max	45	38	+42
Min	3	3	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	56.25%
28–34	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	43.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.69	19.94	+3.75
SD	8.64	5.63	10.02
CV	0.36	0.28	—
Max	41	28	+27
Min	3	7	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Phoenix Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	24.88	-3.38
SD	8.34	8.82	13.65
CV	0.39	0.35	—
Max	41	44	+17
Min	7	10	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	26.31	-5.31
SD	11.19	8.02	13.75
CV	0.53	0.30	—
Max	40	42	+18
Min	7	10	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.44	20.75	-6.31
SD	10.66	10.89	14.64
CV	0.74	0.52	—
Max	38	48	+14
Min	0	6	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.06	18.38	+4.69
SD	11.88	10.09	15.22
CV	0.52	0.55	—
Max	48	38	+38
Min	3	3	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
Total	—	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.19	20.56	+0.62
SD	12.84	9.16	14.63
CV	0.61	0.45	—
Max	43	38	+28
Min	3	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.31	21.88	-5.56
SD	7.13	12.40	11.11
CV	0.44	0.57	—
Max	31	49	+11
Min	7	5	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	24.19	-2.62
SD	6.51	8.41	11.48
CV	0.30	0.35	—
Max	35	41	+18
Min	13	10	-24

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.49	+0.3
Allowed	0.36	-0.3
Differential	0.84	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cincinnati Bengals	12	8.46	+3.54
2	Buffalo Bills	12	8.46	+3.54
3	Chicago Bears	12	9.78	+2.22
4	Houston Oilers	10	8.15	+1.85
5	Philadelphia Eagles	10	8.18	+1.82

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	3	6.70	-3.70
2	Green Bay Packers	4	6.78	-2.78
3	Detroit Lions	4	6.59	-2.59
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4.5	7.05	-2.55
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	7.10	-2.10

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	6	Sep 4 – Oct 9	1 in 98
2	Buffalo Bills	7	Oct 9 – Nov 20	1 in 75
3	New Orleans Saints	7	Sep 11 – Oct 23	1 in 40
4	Phoenix Cardinals	4	Sep 18 – Oct 9	1 in 22
5	Indianapolis Colts	5	Oct 16 – Nov 13	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	10	Oct 3 – Dec 4	1 in 174
2	Green Bay Packers	7	Oct 23 – Dec 4	1 in 58
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Sep 11 – Oct 16	1 in 45
4	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 2 – Nov 6	1 in 35
5	Phoenix Cardinals	5	Nov 20 – Dec 18	1 in 30

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	43.99%	27.53%	18.12%	10.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.12%	28.74%	26.21%	19.94%
Houston Oilers	21.37%	26.37%	28.29%	23.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.52%	17.36%	27.38%	45.74%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Buffalo Bills	24.76%	22.00%	19.56%	18.04%	15.64%
New England Patriots	22.72%	21.43%	20.15%	18.70%	17.00%
Miami Dolphins	18.93%	19.41%	20.27%	20.50%	20.90%
Indianapolis Colts	18.43%	19.41%	20.24%	20.65%	21.28%
New York Jets	15.17%	17.76%	19.79%	22.11%	25.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	36.21%	25.39%	18.12%	12.59%	7.69%
Seattle Seahawks	28.76%	25.19%	20.19%	15.51%	10.35%
Los Angeles Raiders	16.87%	20.87%	22.48%	21.21%	18.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	10.39%	15.79%	20.76%	25.29%	27.77%
San Diego Chargers	7.77%	12.75%	18.45%	25.40%	35.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	47.26%	31.85%	13.16%	5.67%	2.07%
Minnesota Vikings	40.08%	34.42%	15.51%	7.16%	2.83%
Green Bay Packers	5.19%	13.12%	26.34%	28.82%	26.53%
Detroit Lions	4.44%	11.74%	24.47%	29.36%	30.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.04%	8.87%	20.52%	28.99%	38.58%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	35.51%	24.86%	18.40%	13.24%	7.98%
New York Giants	24.48%	24.10%	21.14%	17.76%	12.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.02%	22.02%	22.30%	20.04%	15.62%
Phoenix Cardinals	13.63%	17.81%	21.14%	23.90%	23.51%
Dallas Cowboys	6.36%	11.22%	17.01%	25.06%	40.36%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	45.38%	30.23%	18.95%	5.45%
New Orleans Saints	31.51%	33.19%	26.35%	8.96%
Los Angeles Rams	20.71%	29.39%	35.18%	14.73%
Atlanta Falcons	2.41%	7.20%	19.53%	70.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.55%	13.97%	11.58%	9.78%	8.39%	7.37%	6.30%	5.54%	4.99%	4.23%	3.41%	2.97%	1.96%	0.97%
Denver Broncos	11.77%	11.10%	10.55%	9.05%	8.54%	8.24%	7.04%	6.65%	6.01%	5.20%	4.82%	4.25%	3.56%	3.20%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.01%	8.66%	8.42%	8.65%	8.64%	8.37%	7.89%	7.60%	7.34%	6.51%	6.09%	5.69%	4.40%	2.73%
Seattle Seahawks	8.57%	9.11%	8.94%	8.49%	8.25%	8.18%	7.34%	7.21%	6.88%	6.14%	6.04%	5.38%	4.74%	4.74%
Buffalo Bills	8.95%	8.88%	8.55%	8.31%	8.01%	7.60%	7.51%	7.07%	6.58%	6.69%	6.25%	5.72%	5.59%	4.29%
New England Patriots	8.15%	8.13%	8.13%	8.10%	7.80%	7.34%	7.53%	7.29%	7.03%	7.05%	6.44%	6.20%	5.99%	4.82%
Houston Oilers	7.12%	7.28%	7.45%	7.85%	7.88%	7.97%	7.90%	7.97%	7.85%	7.33%	7.04%	7.09%	5.67%	3.60%
Miami Dolphins	6.34%	6.78%	6.98%	7.18%	7.32%	7.28%	7.58%	7.42%	7.29%	7.66%	7.27%	7.02%	7.50%	6.37%
Indianapolis Colts	6.16%	6.66%	6.77%	7.01%	7.19%	7.26%	7.57%	7.46%	7.40%	7.50%	7.66%	7.08%	7.57%	6.71%
New York Jets	4.81%	5.67%	5.99%	6.59%	6.63%	6.74%	7.56%	7.43%	7.44%	8.32%	7.87%	7.95%	9.01%	7.99%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.24%	5.21%	6.01%	6.33%	6.73%	7.32%	7.24%	7.73%	8.04%	7.81%	8.21%	8.00%	8.06%	9.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.52%	3.19%	3.84%	4.73%	5.48%	5.76%	6.67%	7.40%	8.40%	8.87%	10.13%	11.84%	11.19%	9.98%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.38%	3.22%	3.80%	4.56%	5.09%	5.64%	6.47%	7.06%	7.58%	8.41%	9.18%	9.97%	11.41%	15.23%
San Diego Chargers	1.44%	2.15%	2.99%	3.35%	4.05%	4.92%	5.40%	6.19%	7.18%	8.28%	9.59%	10.82%	13.34%	20.30%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Chicago Bears	19.38%	15.68%	13.41%	10.93%	9.52%	8.31%	6.00%	4.88%	3.92%	2.80%	2.15%	1.47%	0.99%	0.57%
San Francisco 49ers	18.05%	14.53%	12.46%	11.12%	9.43%	8.23%	6.77%	5.77%	4.82%	3.33%	2.39%	1.79%	0.95%	0.36%
Minnesota Vikings	15.47%	13.80%	12.57%	11.17%	10.26%	8.98%	6.87%	5.59%	4.76%	3.55%	2.82%	2.01%	1.30%	0.85%
New Orleans Saints	10.80%	10.96%	10.79%	10.57%	10.35%	9.67%	8.40%	7.58%	6.68%	4.86%	3.81%	2.92%	1.80%	0.80%
Washington Redskins	11.26%	11.60%	11.03%	10.16%	9.32%	8.32%	7.84%	7.00%	6.15%	5.30%	4.42%	3.45%	2.60%	1.55%
New York Giants	6.87%	8.24%	9.02%	9.07%	8.99%	8.72%	8.69%	7.94%	7.30%	7.15%	6.01%	4.98%	4.35%	2.68%
Los Angeles Rams	6.26%	7.23%	8.03%	8.97%	9.37%	9.36%	9.39%	9.22%	8.96%	7.12%	5.79%	5.10%	3.40%	1.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.87%	6.54%	7.55%	8.04%	8.36%	8.71%	8.83%	8.60%	8.17%	7.97%	7.05%	6.12%	5.49%	3.72%
Phoenix Cardinals	3.04%	4.55%	5.33%	6.25%	6.85%	7.41%	8.21%	8.53%	8.46%	9.36%	8.89%	8.43%	8.15%	6.55%
Green Bay Packers	1.16%	1.80%	2.45%	3.48%	4.41%	5.44%	6.80%	8.23%	9.41%	9.82%	11.11%	11.26%	11.42%	13.22%
Dallas Cowboys	1.09%	1.90%	2.63%	3.50%	4.26%	5.08%	6.45%	7.15%	7.87%	10.06%	10.70%	11.85%	14.08%	13.37%
Detroit Lions	0.92%	1.56%	2.12%	3.12%	3.86%	4.97%	6.46%	7.61%	8.77%	10.04%	11.28%	11.60%	12.53%	15.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.51%	0.97%	1.49%	2.06%	2.86%	3.77%	5.14%	6.49%	7.84%	9.39%	11.12%	12.67%	15.01%	20.69%
Atlanta Falcons	0.32%	0.64%	1.13%	1.55%	2.18%	3.02%	4.16%	5.41%	6.89%	9.24%	12.46%	16.35%	17.93%	18.71%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Chicago Bears	12.44%	9.12%	8.49%	7.11%	6.78%	6.12%	5.35%	5.06%	4.49%	4.37%	3.91%	3.87%	3.00%	2.96%	2.39%	2.32%	1.94%	1.93%	1.49%	1.37%	1.10%	1.11%	0.86%	0.73%	0.57%	0.52%	0.35%	0.23%
San Francisco 49ers	11.29%	8.40%	7.98%	6.70%	6.44%	5.56%	5.64%	4.89%	4.71%	4.29%	3.96%	3.85%	3.47%	3.30%	2.63%	2.64%	2.18%	2.45%	1.75%	1.71%	1.25%	1.32%	1.00%	0.92%	0.64%	0.52%	0.30%	0.20%
Minnesota Vikings	9.56%	7.87%	7.35%	6.57%	6.36%	5.87%	5.55%	5.12%	4.75%	4.74%	4.10%	4.21%	3.42%	3.32%	2.69%	2.72%	2.33%	2.45%	1.86%	1.79%	1.46%	1.41%	1.14%	1.02%	0.76%	0.70%	0.51%	0.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.41%	8.65%	6.85%	7.07%	5.93%	5.80%	5.19%	5.04%	4.55%	4.35%	3.89%	3.54%	3.48%	3.27%	3.01%	2.68%	2.68%	2.36%	2.28%	2.02%	1.90%	1.62%	1.48%	1.28%	0.97%	0.82%	0.57%	0.32%
New Orleans Saints	6.38%	5.63%	5.99%	5.30%	5.58%	5.26%	5.34%	4.87%	5.01%	4.75%	4.59%	4.56%	3.86%	4.06%	3.57%	3.60%	3.02%	3.36%	2.47%	2.53%	1.94%	1.99%	1.66%	1.49%	1.11%	0.98%	0.67%	0.42%
Washington Redskins	6.76%	5.80%	6.18%	5.49%	5.67%	5.09%	5.11%	4.71%	4.69%	4.28%	4.21%	3.96%	3.82%	3.73%	3.38%	3.36%	3.14%	2.95%	2.60%	2.58%	2.21%	2.23%	1.86%	1.77%	1.39%	1.32%	1.00%	0.70%
Denver Broncos	5.00%	5.84%	5.28%	5.53%	4.96%	5.49%	4.50%	4.97%	4.44%	4.56%	4.11%	4.14%	3.91%	3.80%	3.54%	3.31%	3.19%	2.94%	2.88%	2.63%	2.69%	2.24%	2.28%	1.92%	1.96%	1.52%	1.52%	0.87%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.68%	4.38%	4.12%	4.46%	4.27%	4.43%	4.40%	4.38%	4.40%	4.47%	4.22%	4.21%	4.25%	4.05%	4.00%	3.70%	3.82%	3.59%	3.58%	3.28%	3.22%	2.82%	2.94%	2.62%	2.17%	2.01%	1.48%	1.08%
New York Giants	3.76%	3.89%	4.38%	4.21%	4.57%	4.51%	4.41%	4.49%	4.27%	4.40%	4.32%	4.33%	4.07%	4.10%	3.81%	4.02%	3.60%	3.59%	3.43%	3.45%	3.06%	3.02%	2.57%	2.48%	2.30%	2.03%	1.64%	1.29%
Seattle Seahawks	3.65%	4.15%	4.21%	4.58%	4.38%	4.54%	4.21%	4.38%	4.44%	4.27%	4.13%	4.14%	3.91%	3.94%	3.80%	3.70%	3.62%	3.40%	3.28%	3.12%	3.32%	2.94%	2.81%	2.58%	2.50%	2.17%	2.33%	1.49%
Buffalo Bills	3.62%	4.47%	4.15%	4.53%	4.32%	4.46%	4.23%	4.31%	4.21%	4.12%	4.13%	3.94%	3.96%	3.74%	3.91%	3.61%	3.71%	3.25%	3.59%	3.15%	3.47%	2.96%	2.99%	2.63%	2.86%	2.25%	2.05%	1.36%
Los Angeles Rams	3.45%	3.46%	3.96%	3.67%	4.18%	4.03%	4.47%	4.39%	4.41%	4.32%	4.55%	4.54%	4.41%	4.49%	4.09%	4.33%	3.93%	4.58%	3.41%	3.61%	2.85%	3.14%	2.73%	2.67%	2.02%	1.93%	1.34%	1.05%
New England Patriots	3.37%	3.91%	3.86%	4.14%	4.12%	4.13%	4.17%	4.10%	4.13%	4.13%	4.00%	3.74%	3.96%	3.74%	4.05%	3.78%	3.96%	3.31%	3.73%	3.43%	3.57%	3.10%	3.29%	2.88%	3.02%	2.55%	2.30%	1.52%
Houston Oilers	2.77%	3.50%	3.41%	3.79%	3.65%	3.86%	3.85%	4.10%	4.04%	4.05%	4.14%	4.07%	4.15%	4.05%	4.23%	3.84%	4.14%	3.87%	3.98%	3.67%	3.63%	3.42%	3.54%	3.21%	2.96%	2.56%	1.98%	1.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.61%	2.86%	3.44%	3.45%	3.79%	3.78%	4.08%	3.88%	4.06%	4.06%	4.25%	4.18%	4.14%	4.18%	4.15%	4.27%	4.04%	4.03%	3.79%	3.92%	3.42%	3.56%	3.05%	3.24%	2.84%	2.77%	2.29%	1.84%
Miami Dolphins	2.51%	3.09%	3.14%	3.52%	3.52%	3.60%	3.58%	3.69%	3.82%	3.91%	4.01%	3.76%	3.89%	3.83%	4.13%	3.92%	3.98%	3.49%	4.01%	3.77%	4.11%	3.57%	3.72%	3.28%	3.72%	3.20%	3.04%	2.19%
Indianapolis Colts	2.39%	2.96%	3.13%	3.36%	3.39%	3.48%	3.64%	3.62%	3.80%	3.72%	3.98%	3.70%	3.90%	3.76%	4.10%	4.00%	4.19%	3.51%	3.94%	3.85%	4.15%	3.64%	3.75%	3.48%	3.72%	3.32%	3.12%	2.38%
New York Jets	1.63%	2.40%	2.48%	3.07%	2.94%	3.17%	3.24%	3.51%	3.49%	3.51%	3.71%	3.56%	3.93%	3.68%	4.18%	3.90%	4.18%	3.57%	4.41%	4.11%	4.43%	3.97%	4.25%	3.88%	4.42%	3.78%	3.81%	2.80%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.51%	2.18%	2.28%	2.73%	2.76%	3.09%	3.10%	3.35%	3.46%	3.58%	3.69%	3.77%	3.88%	3.86%	4.08%	3.93%	4.23%	3.94%	4.33%	4.06%	4.30%	4.00%	4.32%	4.02%	4.32%	3.81%	4.29%	3.13%
Phoenix Cardinals	1.54%	1.92%	2.28%	2.38%	2.78%	2.69%	3.17%	3.15%	3.28%	3.41%	3.65%	3.65%	3.83%	3.97%	4.10%	4.21%	4.11%	4.20%	4.22%	4.49%	4.26%	4.53%	4.12%	4.46%	4.12%	4.16%	3.75%	3.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.81%	1.24%	1.34%	1.71%	1.81%	2.07%	2.29%	2.50%	2.76%	2.81%	2.96%	3.01%	3.41%	3.46%	3.97%	3.68%	4.29%	4.36%	4.82%	4.62%	5.09%	4.80%	5.80%	5.59%	5.47%	5.48%	5.14%	4.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.73%	1.18%	1.29%	1.73%	1.71%	1.99%	2.11%	2.58%	2.54%	2.65%	2.75%	3.06%	3.40%	3.38%	3.72%	3.72%	4.05%	3.83%	4.55%	4.33%	5.09%	4.61%	5.39%	5.07%	6.11%	5.50%	6.90%	6.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.51%	0.67%	0.97%	1.02%	1.29%	1.34%	1.68%	1.83%	2.04%	2.33%	2.58%	2.83%	3.10%	3.38%	3.62%	4.05%	4.09%	4.69%	4.37%	5.01%	4.93%	5.62%	5.44%	5.78%	5.79%	6.49%	6.66%	7.89%
Dallas Cowboys	0.47%	0.67%	0.94%	0.99%	1.29%	1.45%	1.82%	1.71%	2.05%	2.05%	2.45%	2.61%	3.12%	3.12%	3.26%	3.59%	3.66%	4.12%	4.35%	5.05%	4.74%	5.82%	5.37%	6.19%	6.29%	7.43%	7.22%	8.17%
San Diego Chargers	0.44%	0.73%	0.91%	1.12%	1.27%	1.53%	1.64%	1.82%	2.00%	2.12%	2.37%	2.60%	2.79%	2.90%	3.21%	3.31%	3.79%	3.75%	4.45%	4.34%	5.08%	5.02%	5.63%	5.73%	6.89%	6.93%	8.95%	8.71%
Detroit Lions	0.37%	0.52%	0.83%	0.85%	1.01%	1.18%	1.47%	1.62%	1.80%	2.09%	2.28%	2.60%	2.83%	3.29%	3.33%	3.79%	3.71%	4.75%	4.38%	5.05%	4.83%	5.74%	5.58%	6.32%	6.12%	6.95%	7.42%	9.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.21%	0.32%	0.48%	0.55%	0.71%	0.83%	1.00%	1.09%	1.32%	1.49%	1.74%	2.03%	2.28%	2.55%	2.74%	3.26%	3.42%	4.08%	4.06%	4.60%	4.86%	5.76%	5.88%	6.68%	7.08%	8.27%	9.43%	13.28%
Atlanta Falcons	0.11%	0.22%	0.27%	0.38%	0.49%	0.63%	0.75%	0.85%	1.03%	1.17%	1.34%	1.54%	1.83%	2.10%	2.31%	2.74%	3.01%	3.63%	4.00%	4.47%	5.04%	6.03%	6.56%	8.07%	7.88%	10.04%	9.94%	13.57%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.55%	13.88%	11.57%	10.32%	8.36%	37.32%
Denver Broncos	11.77%	11.71%	12.73%	7.54%	7.85%	48.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.01%	8.22%	7.89%	9.54%	8.88%	56.46%
Buffalo Bills	8.95%	8.69%	7.12%	8.99%	8.46%	57.79%
Seattle Seahawks	8.57%	9.52%	10.67%	7.31%	7.72%	56.21%
New England Patriots	8.15%	7.92%	6.65%	8.87%	8.24%	60.17%
Houston Oilers	7.12%	6.97%	7.28%	8.41%	7.91%	62.30%
Miami Dolphins	6.34%	6.73%	5.85%	7.53%	7.70%	65.84%
Indianapolis Colts	6.16%	6.54%	5.73%	7.48%	7.43%	66.66%
New York Jets	4.81%	5.48%	4.88%	7.14%	6.91%	70.78%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.24%	5.53%	7.10%	5.46%	6.42%	71.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.52%	3.07%	3.93%	4.75%	5.51%	80.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.38%	3.40%	4.61%	3.98%	4.87%	80.76%
San Diego Chargers	1.44%	2.35%	3.98%	2.67%	3.73%	85.84%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	19.38%	15.33%	12.55%	12.25%	9.62%	30.87%
San Francisco 49ers	18.05%	14.48%	12.84%	11.35%	9.35%	33.93%
Minnesota Vikings	15.47%	13.31%	11.29%	12.84%	10.51%	36.58%
Washington Redskins	11.26%	12.36%	11.89%	8.92%	8.95%	46.62%
New Orleans Saints	10.80%	10.43%	10.27%	11.52%	10.62%	46.34%
New York Giants	6.87%	8.55%	9.06%	8.57%	8.96%	57.99%
Los Angeles Rams	6.26%	6.82%	7.62%	9.46%	9.62%	60.21%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.87%	6.88%	8.28%	7.00%	8.14%	64.84%
Phoenix Cardinals	3.04%	4.75%	5.85%	5.51%	6.72%	74.14%
Green Bay Packers	1.16%	1.77%	2.26%	3.35%	4.58%	86.88%
Dallas Cowboys	1.09%	2.14%	3.12%	2.90%	4.08%	86.67%
Detroit Lions	0.92%	1.50%	2.02%	3.05%	3.93%	88.59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.51%	1.00%	1.54%	1.94%	2.82%	92.20%
Atlanta Falcons	0.32%	0.69%	1.40%	1.34%	2.11%	94.14%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+17.41%

Fortress

58.48%0.45%41.07%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 61.11 Elo pts.

22 Elo

0.045 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.83 points

Lean Home

-8+2.78+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

15.4

Wide Open

14821

Champion Preseason Odds

11%

San Francisco 49ers, 2nd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

13.8%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.55 · As Expected: 1.55 to 2.13 · Elevated: 2.13 to 2.9 · High Variance: 2.9 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.56 · Close: 5.56 to 7.52 · Off Target: 7.52 to 9.81 · Well Off Target: 9.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.38 · As Expected: 3.38 to 5.63 · More Than Expected: 5.63 to 9.01 · Far More Than Expected: 9.01 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.88 wins

As Expected

01.935

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.96

Pinpoint

06.5415

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

98.49%

Buffalo Bills

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

4.58%

Dallas Cowboys

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

04.510

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.53

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

64%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

75%

Clear Edge

50%81%100%

Close Games

Expected

28%

Some Drama

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

25%

Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.21

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.95

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.47

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

37%

As Expected

0%39%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.04 · Within Noise: 0.04 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.18

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.28

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.047

Within Noise

00.0880.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	60.14%	60.14%	34.42%	19.01%	10.83%
San Francisco 49ers	57.66%	57.66%	33.29%	18.55%	10.80%
Minnesota Vikings	53.96%	53.96%	30.72%	16.90%	9.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.97%	54.97%	32.20%	18.61%	9.34%
New Orleans Saints	43.41%	43.41%	22.48%	11.04%	5.91%
Cincinnati Bengals	35.37%	35.37%	19.52%	10.47%	5.14%
Denver Broncos	43.99%	43.99%	21.86%	10.83%	4.75%
Buffalo Bills	34.25%	34.25%	18.20%	9.54%	4.56%
Washington Redskins	44.00%	44.00%	19.95%	9.00%	4.44%
Seattle Seahawks	36.47%	36.47%	18.32%	9.21%	4.30%
Houston Oilers	30.43%	30.43%	16.67%	8.80%	4.18%
Los Angeles Rams	30.72%	30.72%	15.53%	7.56%	4.04%
New York Giants	33.06%	33.06%	15.02%	6.90%	3.53%
New England Patriots	31.54%	31.54%	15.85%	7.83%	3.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	27.49%	27.49%	12.56%	5.85%	2.99%
Indianapolis Colts	26.09%	26.09%	13.13%	6.38%	2.85%
New York Jets	22.01%	22.01%	10.43%	4.85%	2.08%
Miami Dolphins	25.53%	25.53%	10.90%	4.47%	1.68%
Los Angeles Raiders	21.90%	21.90%	8.82%	3.69%	1.39%
Phoenix Cardinals	18.37%	18.37%	6.43%	2.31%	0.99%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.68%	13.68%	5.69%	2.25%	0.82%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.68%	13.68%	4.85%	1.76%	0.61%
San Diego Chargers	10.09%	10.09%	3.55%	1.30%	0.41%
Green Bay Packers	7.93%	7.91%	2.65%	0.80%	0.31%
Dallas Cowboys	8.66%	8.66%	2.57%	0.81%	0.29%
Detroit Lions	6.98%	6.60%	2.00%	0.59%	0.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.76%	4.52%	1.32%	0.39%	0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	3.50%	3.50%	1.05%	0.29%	0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		49.2%2.14%	46.2%2.17%	51.6%1.68%	49.5%1.86%	52.7%0.87%	69.9%1.00%	61.9%1.32%	62.9%0.92%	51.5%1.05%	55.6%0.84%	62.7%1.17%	68.6%0.72%	50.3%1.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.8%2.14%		47.4%0.89%	55.8%1.72%	50.4%1.13%	55.2%1.80%	68.4%0.88%	60.6%1.29%	59.1%1.86%	53.6%2.07%	53.7%1.62%	64.9%0.59%	63.5%0.69%	53.8%1.74%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.8%2.17%	52.6%0.89%		56.5%1.79%	51.9%0.89%	55.7%1.86%	69.7%0.95%	63.2%1.35%	63.4%1.89%	56.4%2.12%	59.5%1.68%	65.9%0.64%	68.4%0.72%	57.9%1.73%
Denver Broncos	48.4%1.68%	44.2%1.72%	43.5%1.79%		46.4%1.43%	49.0%1.56%	61.2%0.38%	60.7%0.51%	59.3%1.58%	51.1%1.65%	51.7%1.43%	59.4%0.90%	64.4%0.25%	48.3%0.53%
Houston Oilers	50.5%1.86%	49.6%1.13%	48.1%0.89%	53.6%1.43%		51.4%1.58%	65.5%0.86%	61.7%1.19%	59.7%1.60%	53.6%1.82%	57.7%1.41%	66.5%0.56%	66.9%0.65%	52.2%1.34%
Indianapolis Colts	47.3%0.87%	44.8%1.80%	44.3%1.86%	51.0%1.56%	48.6%1.58%		60.6%0.87%	56.6%1.10%	59.6%0.76%	50.6%0.89%	55.7%0.75%	61.9%0.93%	62.8%0.55%	47.6%1.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	30.1%1.00%	31.6%0.88%	30.3%0.95%	38.8%0.38%	34.5%0.86%	39.4%0.87%		42.3%0.30%	47.3%0.88%	38.8%0.97%	37.4%0.74%	50.1%0.46%	53.1%0.13%	32.9%0.43%
Los Angeles Raiders	38.1%1.32%	39.4%1.29%	36.8%1.35%	39.3%0.51%	38.3%1.19%	43.4%1.10%	57.7%0.30%		47.9%1.08%	40.7%1.29%	41.6%1.05%	54.3%0.69%	61.6%0.18%	46.2%0.52%
Miami Dolphins	37.1%0.92%	40.9%1.86%	36.6%1.89%	40.7%1.58%	40.3%1.60%	40.4%0.76%	52.7%0.88%	52.1%1.08%		40.4%0.90%	43.4%0.73%	53.6%0.96%	58.1%0.59%	43.6%1.48%
New England Patriots	48.5%1.05%	46.4%2.07%	43.6%2.12%	48.9%1.65%	46.4%1.82%	49.4%0.89%	61.2%0.97%	59.3%1.29%	59.6%0.90%		56.5%0.88%	61.4%1.16%	61.1%0.73%	49.7%1.59%
New York Jets	44.4%0.84%	46.3%1.62%	40.5%1.68%	48.3%1.43%	42.3%1.41%	44.3%0.75%	62.6%0.74%	58.4%1.05%	56.6%0.73%	43.5%0.88%		55.8%0.94%	63.0%0.59%	47.1%1.40%
Pittsburgh Steelers	37.3%1.17%	35.1%0.59%	34.1%0.64%	40.6%0.90%	33.5%0.56%	38.1%0.93%	49.9%0.46%	45.7%0.69%	46.4%0.96%	38.6%1.16%	44.2%0.94%		57.0%0.34%	37.7%0.92%
San Diego Chargers	31.4%0.72%	36.5%0.69%	31.6%0.72%	35.6%0.25%	33.1%0.65%	37.2%0.55%	46.9%0.13%	38.4%0.18%	41.9%0.59%	38.9%0.73%	37.0%0.59%	43.0%0.34%		31.2%0.25%
Seattle Seahawks	49.7%1.70%	46.2%1.74%	42.1%1.73%	51.7%0.53%	47.8%1.34%	52.4%1.39%	67.1%0.43%	53.8%0.52%	56.4%1.48%	50.3%1.59%	52.9%1.40%	62.3%0.92%	68.8%0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		22.4%0.53%	44.4%0.15%	45.0%0.15%	43.3%0.15%	30.7%0.18%	25.0%0.53%	29.7%0.22%	33.5%0.35%	32.1%0.29%	35.3%0.27%	28.7%0.18%	48.9%0.09%	32.2%0.37%
Chicago Bears	77.6%0.53%		73.4%0.98%	76.3%0.49%	72.6%0.58%	55.4%2.68%	52.1%0.45%	54.4%3.23%	58.3%2.69%	57.7%2.20%	67.0%1.88%	50.2%3.09%	78.1%0.31%	57.8%2.76%
Dallas Cowboys	55.6%0.15%	26.6%0.98%		53.0%0.32%	48.2%0.34%	31.4%0.88%	27.6%0.99%	32.6%1.01%	33.6%0.34%	35.4%0.27%	39.8%0.21%	25.1%0.93%	52.4%0.21%	31.9%0.34%
Detroit Lions	55.0%0.15%	23.7%0.49%	47.0%0.32%		45.0%0.12%	29.4%0.73%	24.0%0.58%	25.8%0.91%	33.7%0.75%	31.6%0.66%	43.6%0.53%	23.7%0.83%	49.3%0.07%	29.8%0.82%
Green Bay Packers	56.7%0.15%	27.4%0.58%	51.8%0.34%	55.0%0.12%		31.8%0.89%	27.7%0.62%	31.7%1.07%	35.0%0.87%	35.3%0.76%	43.6%0.53%	27.7%0.98%	57.1%0.08%	34.4%0.93%
Los Angeles Rams	69.3%0.18%	44.6%2.68%	68.6%0.88%	70.6%0.73%	68.2%0.89%		42.6%2.85%	51.4%1.67%	50.0%2.01%	51.8%1.86%	62.2%1.42%	44.2%1.23%	68.1%0.56%	52.8%2.12%
Minnesota Vikings	75.0%0.53%	47.9%0.45%	72.4%0.99%	76.0%0.58%	72.3%0.62%	57.4%2.85%		55.7%3.60%	58.1%2.90%	59.1%2.42%	67.5%1.94%	49.5%3.28%	77.9%0.34%	59.9%2.83%
New Orleans Saints	70.3%0.22%	45.6%3.23%	67.4%1.01%	74.2%0.91%	68.3%1.07%	48.6%1.67%	44.3%3.60%		52.3%2.41%	51.2%2.11%	62.7%1.66%	45.3%1.06%	72.7%0.66%	56.6%2.54%
New York Giants	66.5%0.35%	41.7%2.69%	66.4%0.34%	66.3%0.75%	65.0%0.87%	50.0%2.01%	41.9%2.90%	47.7%2.41%		49.3%0.85%	63.5%0.66%	40.9%2.39%	68.3%0.51%	50.5%0.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	67.9%0.29%	42.3%2.20%	64.6%0.27%	68.4%0.66%	64.7%0.76%	48.2%1.86%	40.9%2.42%	48.8%2.11%	50.7%0.85%		60.1%0.55%	43.4%2.00%	67.3%0.39%	52.8%0.78%
Phoenix Cardinals	64.7%0.27%	33.0%1.88%	60.2%0.21%	56.4%0.53%	56.4%0.53%	37.8%1.42%	32.5%1.94%	37.3%1.66%	36.5%0.66%	39.9%0.55%		32.2%1.59%	61.8%0.35%	37.8%0.65%
San Francisco 49ers	71.3%0.18%	49.8%3.09%	74.9%0.93%	76.3%0.83%	72.3%0.98%	55.8%1.23%	50.5%3.28%	54.7%1.06%	59.1%2.39%	56.6%2.00%	67.8%1.59%		75.7%0.68%	61.6%2.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51.1%0.09%	21.9%0.31%	47.6%0.21%	50.7%0.07%	42.9%0.08%	31.9%0.56%	22.1%0.34%	27.3%0.66%	31.7%0.51%	32.7%0.39%	38.2%0.35%	24.3%0.68%		34.9%0.51%
Washington Redskins	67.8%0.37%	42.2%2.76%	68.1%0.34%	70.2%0.82%	65.6%0.93%	47.2%2.12%	40.1%2.83%	43.4%2.54%	49.5%0.80%	47.2%0.78%	62.2%0.65%	38.4%2.44%	65.1%0.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		49.9%4.63%	46.9%7.63%	52.3%5.69%	48.9%4.29%		66.5%1.76%	62.0%2.67%				64.5%1.70%	69.6%1.35%	52.3%4.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.1%4.63%			52.2%5.78%		53.6%3.77%	67.1%1.69%	61.3%2.72%	59.2%3.54%	53.9%4.33%	56.2%2.99%		65.9%1.20%	52.2%4.73%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.1%7.63%			56.0%8.34%		56.8%5.63%	70.0%2.71%	65.1%4.36%	63.1%5.42%	55.7%7.04%	59.6%4.78%		69.3%2.06%	56.2%6.99%
Denver Broncos	47.7%5.69%	47.8%5.78%	44.0%8.34%		48.5%4.99%	50.1%4.18%			59.7%4.23%	50.0%5.05%	52.3%3.65%	59.4%2.08%
Houston Oilers	51.1%4.29%			51.5%4.99%		51.6%2.98%	66.8%1.46%	62.8%2.34%	60.2%3.19%	53.2%3.60%	53.8%2.57%		67.0%1.15%	50.3%3.86%
Indianapolis Colts		46.4%3.77%	43.2%5.63%	49.9%4.18%	48.4%2.98%		63.2%1.37%	59.0%2.16%				62.0%1.49%	63.2%0.87%	49.7%3.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	33.5%1.76%	32.9%1.69%	30.0%2.71%		33.2%1.46%	36.8%1.37%			44.0%1.34%	36.6%1.74%	38.4%0.95%	46.8%0.66%
Los Angeles Raiders	38.0%2.67%	38.7%2.72%	34.9%4.36%		37.2%2.34%	41.0%2.16%			48.0%1.95%	40.8%2.71%	46.4%1.85%	51.0%1.13%
Miami Dolphins		40.8%3.54%	36.9%5.42%	40.3%4.23%	39.8%3.19%		56.0%1.34%	52.0%1.95%				53.5%1.35%	57.8%0.93%	40.7%3.57%
New England Patriots		46.1%4.33%	44.3%7.04%	50.0%5.05%	46.8%3.60%		63.4%1.74%	59.2%2.71%				59.6%1.77%	63.6%1.22%	48.5%4.06%
New York Jets		43.8%2.99%	40.4%4.78%	47.7%3.65%	46.2%2.57%		61.6%0.95%	53.6%1.85%				58.5%1.15%	60.9%0.87%	46.2%3.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	35.5%1.70%			40.6%2.08%		38.0%1.49%	53.2%0.66%	49.0%1.13%	46.5%1.35%	40.4%1.77%	41.5%1.15%		48.4%0.43%	38.5%1.91%
San Diego Chargers	30.4%1.35%	34.1%1.20%	30.7%2.06%		33.0%1.15%	36.8%0.87%			42.2%0.93%	36.4%1.22%	39.1%0.87%	51.6%0.43%
Seattle Seahawks	47.7%4.52%	47.8%4.73%	43.8%6.99%		49.7%3.86%	50.3%3.63%			59.3%3.57%	51.5%4.06%	53.8%3.20%	61.5%1.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		22.6%0.88%	52.6%0.10%	55.6%0.07%	45.1%0.08%		24.7%0.75%		30.4%0.42%	29.8%0.32%	45.7%0.22%		50.0%0.05%	30.7%0.62%
Chicago Bears	77.4%0.88%		71.6%1.90%			56.9%7.06%		55.0%10.20%	58.9%7.44%	58.3%6.18%	68.7%4.10%	50.0%12.90%		58.0%9.48%
Dallas Cowboys	47.4%0.10%	28.4%1.90%		51.6%0.22%	49.1%0.28%	29.7%1.05%	25.5%1.67%	31.5%1.32%				25.7%1.98%	47.8%0.16%
Detroit Lions	44.4%0.07%		48.4%0.22%			27.6%0.67%		28.7%1.06%	31.1%0.69%	32.3%0.71%	44.9%0.45%	24.7%1.56%		29.3%1.17%
Green Bay Packers	54.9%0.08%		50.9%0.28%			33.2%0.85%		32.7%1.29%	33.9%1.03%	32.3%0.79%	39.3%0.46%	28.9%1.82%		33.9%1.31%
Los Angeles Rams		43.1%7.06%	70.3%1.05%	72.4%0.67%	66.8%0.85%		43.8%6.53%		50.9%3.66%	50.4%3.01%	63.7%1.99%		70.5%0.50%	52.5%5.41%
Minnesota Vikings	75.3%0.75%		74.5%1.67%			56.2%6.53%		55.6%8.74%	57.2%6.82%	57.3%5.31%	68.1%3.77%	48.9%11.64%		59.3%8.74%
New Orleans Saints		45.0%10.20%	68.5%1.32%	71.3%1.06%	67.3%1.29%		44.4%8.74%		53.1%5.28%	52.9%4.58%	63.3%3.11%		72.9%0.71%	53.0%7.13%
New York Giants	69.6%0.42%	41.1%7.44%		68.9%0.69%	66.1%1.03%	49.1%3.66%	42.8%6.82%	46.9%5.28%				40.6%7.14%	73.5%0.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	70.2%0.32%	41.7%6.18%		67.7%0.71%	67.7%0.79%	49.6%3.01%	42.7%5.31%	47.1%4.58%				41.4%6.20%	65.8%0.40%
Phoenix Cardinals	54.3%0.22%	31.3%4.10%		55.1%0.45%	60.7%0.46%	36.3%1.99%	31.9%3.77%	36.7%3.11%				32.1%4.00%	55.0%0.28%
San Francisco 49ers		50.0%12.90%	74.3%1.98%	75.3%1.56%	71.1%1.82%		51.1%11.64%		59.4%7.14%	58.6%6.20%	67.9%4.00%		79.1%1.05%	59.2%9.36%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50.0%0.05%		52.2%0.16%			29.5%0.50%		27.1%0.71%	26.5%0.58%	34.2%0.40%	45.0%0.28%	20.9%1.05%		30.6%0.80%
Washington Redskins	69.3%0.62%	42.0%9.48%		70.7%1.17%	66.1%1.31%	47.5%5.41%	40.7%8.74%	47.0%7.13%				40.8%9.36%	69.4%0.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		48.5%1.83%	45.6%3.68%	53.0%2.36%	49.1%1.63%	54.1%1.17%	65.8%0.50%	62.1%0.90%	57.1%0.97%	51.2%1.51%	57.2%0.91%	64.0%0.56%	65.9%0.36%	52.9%1.82%
Cincinnati Bengals	51.5%1.83%		46.6%3.61%	53.6%2.54%	50.7%1.52%	53.9%1.49%	66.4%0.53%	61.9%0.91%	62.7%1.26%	54.8%1.68%	56.2%1.12%	63.5%0.49%	65.9%0.37%	50.9%2.18%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.4%3.68%	53.4%3.61%		56.2%4.45%	52.5%3.03%	59.4%2.39%	66.6%0.97%	63.6%1.76%	65.1%2.00%	57.4%3.17%	59.3%2.00%	66.1%0.85%	70.5%0.72%	56.7%3.58%
Denver Broncos	47.0%2.36%	46.4%2.54%	43.8%4.45%		48.0%2.24%	51.4%1.59%	66.5%0.44%	57.3%0.82%	57.8%1.41%	48.6%1.90%	54.7%1.23%	60.5%0.64%	62.6%0.29%	49.5%1.97%
Houston Oilers	50.9%1.63%	49.3%1.52%	47.5%3.03%	52.0%2.24%		51.5%1.14%	66.7%0.43%	59.7%0.81%	61.6%1.02%	52.9%1.39%	54.5%0.98%	62.8%0.38%	61.5%0.35%	51.6%1.75%
Indianapolis Colts	45.9%1.17%	46.1%1.49%	40.6%2.39%	48.6%1.59%	48.5%1.14%		64.0%0.34%	57.3%0.68%	56.8%0.59%	48.9%1.06%	51.6%0.63%	56.6%0.41%	60.5%0.25%	49.5%1.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	34.2%0.50%	33.6%0.53%	33.4%0.97%	33.5%0.44%	33.3%0.43%	36.0%0.34%		48.6%0.14%	44.3%0.30%	36.1%0.40%	39.2%0.25%	48.6%0.15%	50.9%0.06%	37.2%0.35%
Los Angeles Raiders	37.9%0.90%	38.1%0.91%	36.4%1.76%	42.7%0.82%	40.3%0.81%	42.7%0.68%	51.4%0.14%		56.1%0.47%	44.6%0.82%	44.0%0.48%	53.8%0.29%	54.0%0.10%	42.7%0.66%
Miami Dolphins	42.9%0.97%	37.3%1.26%	34.9%2.00%	42.2%1.41%	38.4%1.02%	43.2%0.59%	55.7%0.30%	43.9%0.47%		42.5%0.76%	46.1%0.46%	53.2%0.34%	56.9%0.17%	39.8%1.16%
New England Patriots	48.8%1.51%	45.2%1.68%	42.6%3.17%	51.4%1.90%	47.1%1.39%	51.1%1.06%	63.9%0.40%	55.4%0.82%	57.5%0.76%		50.3%0.79%	59.9%0.52%	62.3%0.32%	49.3%1.54%
New York Jets	42.8%0.91%	43.8%1.12%	40.7%2.00%	45.3%1.23%	45.5%0.98%	48.4%0.63%	60.8%0.25%	56.0%0.48%	53.9%0.46%	49.7%0.79%		61.4%0.32%	54.9%0.20%	45.1%1.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.0%0.56%	36.5%0.49%	33.9%0.85%	39.5%0.64%	37.2%0.38%	43.4%0.41%	51.4%0.15%	46.2%0.29%	46.8%0.34%	40.1%0.52%	38.6%0.32%		57.0%0.13%	39.3%0.63%
San Diego Chargers	34.1%0.36%	34.1%0.37%	29.5%0.72%	37.4%0.29%	38.5%0.35%	39.5%0.25%	49.1%0.06%	46.0%0.10%	43.1%0.17%	37.7%0.32%	45.1%0.20%	43.0%0.13%		37.1%0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	47.1%1.82%	49.1%2.18%	43.3%3.58%	50.5%1.97%	48.4%1.75%	50.5%1.39%	62.8%0.35%	57.3%0.66%	60.2%1.16%	50.7%1.54%	54.9%1.05%	60.7%0.63%	62.9%0.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		22.7%0.23%	54.5%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	40.0%0.02%	39.6%0.05%	22.7%0.18%	24.7%0.09%	36.6%0.07%	27.1%0.07%	48.7%0.04%	26.6%0.14%	42.9%<0.01%	28.9%0.12%
Chicago Bears	77.3%0.23%		71.7%0.50%	73.9%0.31%	74.8%0.43%	56.2%2.95%	49.5%6.93%	54.4%4.84%	56.7%3.05%	57.0%2.55%	66.7%1.31%	51.1%7.14%	70.6%0.19%	59.2%3.98%
Dallas Cowboys	45.5%0.01%	28.3%0.50%		46.7%0.03%	45.7%0.03%	33.8%0.22%	28.5%0.39%	34.2%0.31%	34.4%0.15%	37.5%0.13%	43.5%0.06%	25.1%0.52%	50.0%0.01%	37.2%0.20%
Detroit Lions	66.7%<0.01%	26.1%0.31%	53.3%0.03%		55.6%0.02%	31.8%0.17%	29.7%0.28%	30.0%0.27%	35.1%0.13%	32.1%0.14%	31.9%0.07%	21.0%0.35%	62.5%<0.01%	31.3%0.22%
Green Bay Packers	60.0%0.02%	25.2%0.43%	54.3%0.03%	44.4%0.02%		30.4%0.21%	26.3%0.36%	27.4%0.30%	30.1%0.21%	35.7%0.21%	51.2%0.08%	27.0%0.52%	55.6%<0.01%	37.3%0.24%
Los Angeles Rams	60.4%0.05%	43.8%2.95%	66.2%0.22%	68.2%0.17%	69.6%0.21%		44.4%2.78%	50.7%1.68%	53.2%1.19%	51.1%0.95%	66.4%0.49%	43.4%2.99%	72.8%0.12%	53.0%1.73%
Minnesota Vikings	77.3%0.18%	50.5%6.93%	71.5%0.39%	70.3%0.28%	73.7%0.36%	55.6%2.78%		56.1%3.91%	57.2%2.59%	58.1%2.00%	66.4%1.08%	49.7%6.37%	74.7%0.16%	57.9%3.68%
New Orleans Saints	75.3%0.09%	45.6%4.84%	65.8%0.31%	70.0%0.27%	72.6%0.30%	49.3%1.68%	43.9%3.91%		53.1%1.83%	52.9%1.56%	64.5%0.80%	42.8%4.33%	74.5%0.15%	54.9%2.42%
New York Giants	63.4%0.07%	43.3%3.05%	65.6%0.15%	64.9%0.13%	69.9%0.21%	46.8%1.19%	42.8%2.59%	46.9%1.83%		48.0%0.87%	56.8%0.40%	42.4%2.94%	63.7%0.11%	48.4%1.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	72.9%0.07%	43.0%2.55%	62.5%0.13%	67.9%0.14%	64.3%0.21%	48.9%0.95%	41.9%2.00%	47.1%1.56%	52.0%0.87%		62.2%0.31%	41.4%2.53%	69.3%0.07%	52.5%1.18%
Phoenix Cardinals	51.3%0.04%	33.3%1.31%	56.5%0.06%	68.1%0.07%	48.8%0.08%	33.6%0.49%	33.6%1.08%	35.5%0.80%	43.2%0.40%	37.8%0.31%		30.8%1.20%	64.9%0.04%	42.9%0.56%
San Francisco 49ers	73.4%0.14%	48.9%7.14%	74.9%0.52%	79.0%0.35%	73.0%0.52%	56.6%2.99%	50.3%6.37%	57.2%4.33%	57.6%2.94%	58.6%2.53%	69.2%1.20%		74.2%0.26%	58.4%3.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	57.1%<0.01%	29.4%0.19%	50.0%0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	27.2%0.12%	25.3%0.16%	25.5%0.15%	36.3%0.11%	30.7%0.07%	35.1%0.04%	25.8%0.26%		33.5%0.17%
Washington Redskins	71.1%0.12%	40.8%3.98%	62.8%0.20%	68.7%0.22%	62.7%0.24%	47.0%1.73%	42.1%3.68%	45.1%2.42%	51.6%1.48%	47.5%1.18%	57.1%0.56%	41.6%3.99%	66.5%0.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Phoenix Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	55.2%0.03%	45.9%1.81%	62.2%0.07%	68.3%0.06%	56.8%0.07%	47.8%0.72%	43.8%1.56%	48.7%1.10%	54.5%0.66%	50.3%0.57%	58.7%0.22%	43.7%1.75%	65.9%0.04%	52.2%0.87%
Cincinnati Bengals	81.5%0.03%	44.5%2.08%	70.1%0.09%	61.2%0.07%	77.0%0.09%	48.8%0.78%	45.2%1.78%	49.0%1.15%	52.0%0.74%	50.4%0.58%	61.6%0.22%	47.6%1.88%	56.7%0.03%	56.5%0.96%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	75.0%0.06%	47.5%3.52%	70.7%0.14%	69.3%0.10%	63.9%0.13%	52.0%1.39%	47.8%3.18%	48.7%2.07%	53.7%1.29%	53.1%1.10%	62.6%0.41%	45.8%3.54%	73.4%0.08%	56.8%1.60%
Denver Broncos	59.5%0.04%	41.4%2.05%	63.6%0.08%	61.7%0.06%	65.9%0.09%	44.4%0.79%	39.5%1.85%	47.1%1.16%	48.0%0.77%	47.6%0.64%	53.6%0.25%	39.7%2.05%	67.6%0.03%	47.3%0.98%
Houston Oilers	55.3%0.04%	42.7%1.66%	64.7%0.07%	65.6%0.06%	69.3%0.09%	46.2%0.67%	45.3%1.51%	51.4%0.96%	50.0%0.61%	52.2%0.49%	55.0%0.22%	44.1%1.65%	64.5%0.03%	52.9%0.75%
Indianapolis Colts	68.4%0.02%	45.1%1.17%	61.8%0.06%	63.2%0.04%	60.0%0.04%	50.1%0.49%	38.0%1.09%	44.5%0.70%	46.6%0.43%	50.1%0.38%	54.9%0.14%	38.7%1.18%	72.7%0.03%	50.7%0.61%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.7%<0.01%	31.7%0.34%	60.0%0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	41.7%0.01%	41.5%0.14%	31.5%0.29%	33.3%0.20%	35.0%0.10%	40.0%0.11%	52.2%0.05%	29.5%0.33%	55.6%<0.01%	38.9%0.15%
Los Angeles Raiders	28.6%<0.01%	34.9%0.70%	59.4%0.03%	73.7%0.02%	46.7%0.03%	37.9%0.30%	35.1%0.62%	38.3%0.41%	35.4%0.26%	43.5%0.21%	48.1%0.08%	36.0%0.68%	60.0%0.01%	38.9%0.33%
Miami Dolphins	78.6%0.01%	35.8%0.85%	60.5%0.04%	64.5%0.03%	50.0%0.04%	39.6%0.34%	30.6%0.75%	39.4%0.50%	39.5%0.33%	36.0%0.24%	54.2%0.10%	35.9%0.82%	75.0%0.01%	41.8%0.40%
New England Patriots	57.9%0.02%	44.3%1.47%	61.1%0.07%	51.1%0.05%	59.4%0.06%	46.3%0.61%	40.5%1.26%	43.8%0.88%	47.2%0.55%	49.3%0.46%	60.2%0.19%	39.5%1.46%	62.1%0.03%	48.3%0.72%
New York Jets	77.8%<0.01%	40.6%0.94%	58.3%0.04%	70.4%0.03%	56.0%0.05%	44.4%0.35%	38.7%0.84%	42.6%0.50%	42.8%0.29%	46.0%0.30%	50.4%0.12%	40.5%0.89%	60.9%0.02%	48.8%0.47%
Pittsburgh Steelers	37.5%<0.01%	32.0%0.40%	35.3%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	58.8%0.02%	41.1%0.16%	34.3%0.38%	42.6%0.26%	35.3%0.16%	39.4%0.14%	45.3%0.05%	33.2%0.45%	62.5%<0.01%	37.2%0.20%
San Diego Chargers	66.7%<0.01%	33.5%0.27%	16.7%<0.01%	57.1%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	33.6%0.11%	29.5%0.24%	32.6%0.14%	34.6%0.08%	28.6%0.06%	46.2%0.03%	27.4%0.22%	0.0%<0.01%	33.9%0.13%
Seattle Seahawks	50.0%0.02%	43.4%1.74%	61.9%0.08%	67.3%0.06%	53.5%0.07%	45.3%0.70%	43.6%1.55%	48.7%1.01%	52.3%0.64%	51.1%0.57%	57.9%0.24%	41.6%1.66%	76.3%0.04%	51.8%0.84%
Atlanta Falcons															44.8%0.03%	18.5%0.03%	25.0%0.06%	40.5%0.04%	44.7%0.04%	31.6%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	21.4%0.01%	42.1%0.02%	22.2%<0.01%	62.5%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%
Chicago Bears															54.1%1.81%	55.5%2.08%	52.5%3.52%	58.6%2.05%	57.3%1.66%	54.9%1.17%	68.3%0.34%	65.1%0.70%	64.2%0.85%	55.7%1.47%	59.4%0.94%	68.0%0.40%	66.5%0.27%	56.6%1.74%
Dallas Cowboys															37.8%0.07%	29.9%0.09%	29.3%0.14%	36.4%0.08%	35.3%0.07%	38.2%0.06%	40.0%0.01%	40.6%0.03%	39.5%0.04%	38.9%0.07%	41.7%0.04%	64.7%0.02%	83.3%<0.01%	38.1%0.08%
Detroit Lions															31.7%0.06%	38.8%0.07%	30.7%0.10%	38.3%0.06%	34.4%0.06%	36.8%0.04%	87.5%<0.01%	26.3%0.02%	35.5%0.03%	48.9%0.05%	29.6%0.03%	60.0%0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	32.7%0.06%
Green Bay Packers															43.2%0.07%	23.0%0.09%	36.1%0.13%	34.1%0.09%	30.7%0.09%	40.0%0.04%	58.3%0.01%	53.3%0.03%	50.0%0.04%	40.6%0.06%	44.0%0.05%	41.2%0.02%	55.6%<0.01%	46.5%0.07%
Los Angeles Rams															52.2%0.72%	51.2%0.78%	48.0%1.39%	55.6%0.79%	53.8%0.67%	49.9%0.49%	58.5%0.14%	62.1%0.30%	60.4%0.34%	53.7%0.61%	55.6%0.35%	58.9%0.16%	66.4%0.11%	54.7%0.70%
Minnesota Vikings															56.2%1.56%	54.8%1.78%	52.2%3.18%	60.5%1.85%	54.7%1.51%	62.0%1.09%	68.5%0.29%	64.9%0.62%	69.4%0.75%	59.5%1.26%	61.3%0.84%	65.7%0.38%	70.5%0.24%	56.4%1.55%
New Orleans Saints															51.3%1.10%	51.0%1.15%	51.3%2.07%	52.9%1.16%	48.6%0.96%	55.5%0.70%	66.7%0.20%	61.7%0.41%	60.6%0.50%	56.2%0.88%	57.4%0.50%	57.4%0.26%	67.4%0.14%	51.3%1.01%
New York Giants															45.5%0.66%	48.0%0.74%	46.3%1.29%	52.0%0.77%	50.0%0.61%	53.4%0.43%	65.0%0.10%	64.6%0.26%	60.5%0.33%	52.8%0.55%	57.2%0.29%	64.7%0.16%	65.4%0.08%	47.7%0.64%
Philadelphia Eagles															49.7%0.57%	49.6%0.58%	46.9%1.10%	52.4%0.64%	47.8%0.49%	49.9%0.38%	60.0%0.11%	56.5%0.21%	64.0%0.24%	50.7%0.46%	54.0%0.30%	60.6%0.14%	71.4%0.06%	48.9%0.57%
Phoenix Cardinals															41.3%0.22%	38.4%0.22%	37.4%0.41%	46.4%0.25%	45.0%0.22%	45.1%0.14%	47.8%0.05%	51.9%0.08%	45.8%0.10%	39.8%0.19%	49.6%0.12%	54.7%0.05%	53.8%0.03%	42.1%0.24%
San Francisco 49ers															56.3%1.75%	52.4%1.88%	54.2%3.54%	60.3%2.05%	55.9%1.65%	61.3%1.18%	70.5%0.33%	64.0%0.68%	64.1%0.82%	60.5%1.46%	59.5%0.89%	66.8%0.45%	72.6%0.22%	58.4%1.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															34.1%0.04%	43.3%0.03%	26.6%0.08%	32.4%0.03%	35.5%0.03%	27.3%0.03%	44.4%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%	25.0%0.01%	37.9%0.03%	39.1%0.02%	37.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	23.7%0.04%
Washington Redskins															47.8%0.87%	43.5%0.96%	43.2%1.60%	52.7%0.98%	47.1%0.75%	49.3%0.61%	61.1%0.15%	61.1%0.33%	58.2%0.40%	51.7%0.72%	51.2%0.47%	62.8%0.20%	66.1%0.13%	48.2%0.84%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Chicago Bears	100.00%	63.48%	36.85%	20.11%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	60.73%	30.51%	16.97%	Won Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	100.00%	61.35%	35.01%	15.77%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	55.95%	27.48%	12.42%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	100.00%	38.66%	17.66%	7.63%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	34.81%	14.72%	7.32%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	63.99%	26.96%	12.20%	7.08%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	61.19%	27.43%	12.53%	6.14%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	38.81%	16.63%	7.32%	3.54%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	36.01%	14.02%	5.72%	3.01%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers
Cleveland Browns (1st)		61.2%100.00%
Houston Oilers	38.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams		36.0%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	64.0%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills			55.2%61.19%	57.2%38.81%
Cincinnati Bengals					61.3%100.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	44.8%61.19%
Houston Oilers	42.8%38.81%
Seattle Seahawks		38.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		61.1%36.01%		64.8%63.99%
Los Angeles Rams	38.9%36.01%
Minnesota Vikings					42.1%63.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	35.2%63.99%				34.2%36.01%
San Francisco 49ers			57.9%63.99%	65.8%36.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		41.8%34.22%			60.7%21.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	58.2%34.22%		54.8%16.85%	56.9%10.28%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		45.2%16.85%			46.5%10.58%
Houston Oilers		43.1%10.28%			45.6%6.35%
Seattle Seahawks	39.3%21.73%		53.5%10.58%	54.4%6.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears			56.4%17.51%	64.8%7.59%	57.4%38.38%
Los Angeles Rams				45.0%4.72%	38.6%9.30%
Minnesota Vikings	43.6%17.51%			48.4%9.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	35.2%7.59%	55.0%4.72%	51.6%9.45%		35.1%13.05%
San Francisco 49ers	42.6%38.38%	61.4%9.30%		64.9%13.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	45.4%10.12%	47.3%1.61%	41.3%3.30%	49.6%4.07%	43.9%8.38%
Cincinnati Bengals	44.8%12.83%	46.6%1.99%	41.4%4.28%	50.1%5.17%	44.2%10.74%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.8%4.60%	51.5%0.72%	44.2%1.51%	54.6%1.82%	48.0%3.88%
Houston Oilers	47.3%2.72%	51.4%0.40%	48.0%0.88%	52.2%1.09%	47.4%2.22%
Seattle Seahawks	43.6%6.58%	44.5%1.00%	40.4%2.22%	47.6%2.56%	41.6%5.29%
Chicago Bears						54.6%10.12%	55.2%12.83%	51.2%4.60%	52.7%2.72%	56.4%6.58%
Los Angeles Rams						52.7%1.61%	53.4%1.99%	48.5%0.72%	48.6%0.40%	55.5%1.00%
Minnesota Vikings						58.7%3.30%	58.6%4.28%	55.8%1.51%	52.0%0.88%	59.6%2.22%
Philadelphia Eagles						50.4%4.07%	49.9%5.17%	45.4%1.82%	47.8%1.09%	52.4%2.56%
San Francisco 49ers						56.1%8.38%	55.8%10.74%	52.0%3.88%	52.6%2.22%	58.4%5.29%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 20.11% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

65.36%

Win Prob

64.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.83%

Win Prob

57.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

35.22%

Win Prob

55.20%

San Francisco 49ers 16.97% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

60.98%

Win Prob

57.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.53%

Win Prob

42.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

35.33%

Win Prob

55.83%

Cincinnati Bengals 15.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

56.89%

Win Prob

58.20%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

36.43%

Win Prob

44.80%

Buffalo Bills 12.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

60.34%

Win Prob

55.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

52.04%

Win Prob

41.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

36.99%

Win Prob

45.41%

Seattle Seahawks 7.63% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

48.41%

Win Prob

39.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

37.57%

Win Prob

43.58%

Philadelphia Eagles 7.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

64.63%

Win Prob

35.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

33.12%

Win Prob

51.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

35.25%

Win Prob

49.94%

Minnesota Vikings 7.08% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.99%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

62.49%

Win Prob

43.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

35.48%

Win Prob

58.64%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 6.14% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

60.71%

Win Prob

45.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

36.58%

Win Prob

48.80%

Houston Oilers 3.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

60.46%

Win Prob

43.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

36.35%

Win Prob

47.26%

Los Angeles Rams 3.01% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.01%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.82%

Win Prob

38.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

35.28%

Win Prob

53.45%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1988-09-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-31	1416.60	1454.14	35.95%	63.57%	-8.40	0-1
1988-09-11	New Orleans Saints	L 21-29	1408.20	1527.26	41.50%	58.01%	-7.31	0-2
1988-09-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-17	1400.89	1581.12	19.84%	79.82%	+20.46	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-26	1421.35	1486.60	32.38%	67.17%	-4.95	1-3
1988-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-31	1416.40	1510.82	44.97%	54.53%	-9.30	1-4
1988-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-33	1407.10	1521.67	42.12%	57.38%	-15.09	1-5
1988-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-30	1392.01	1542.85	22.66%	76.97%	-5.65	1-6
1988-10-23	New York Giants	L 16-23	1386.36	1512.15	40.56%	58.95%	-6.69	1-7
1988-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1379.67	1499.90	25.88%	73.71%	+7.94	2-7
1988-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 20-0	1387.61	1448.60	49.76%	49.73%	+13.86	3-7
1988-11-13	San Diego Chargers	L 7-10	1401.47	1416.50	56.34%	43.16%	-6.08	3-8
1988-11-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 12-6	1395.39	1498.35	27.83%	71.75%	+10.94	4-8
1988-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1406.33	1390.86	60.59%	38.92%	+6.42	5-8
1988-12-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-13	1412.75	1593.88	33.18%	66.36%	-6.55	5-9
1988-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-22	1406.20	1523.26	26.24%	73.36%	-6.33	5-10
1988-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-10	1399.87	1550.99	22.63%	77.00%	-1.42	5-11
1988-09-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1477.29	1530.60	50.87%	48.62%	+5.25	1-0
1988-09-11	Miami Dolphins	W 9-6	1482.54	1497.95	56.29%	43.22%	+4.67	2-0
1988-09-18	@ New England Patriots	W 16-14	1487.21	1521.51	36.38%	63.14%	+5.56	3-0
1988-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 36-28	1492.77	1489.48	58.91%	40.60%	+7.16	4-0
1988-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1499.93	1550.90	34.20%	65.34%	-9.78	4-1
1988-10-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-23	1490.15	1481.51	59.65%	39.86%	+8.25	5-1
1988-10-17	@ New York Jets	W 37-14	1498.40	1504.73	40.18%	59.33%	+17.71	6-1
1988-10-23	New England Patriots	W 23-20	1516.11	1492.66	61.68%	37.84%	+4.09	7-1
1988-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 28-0	1520.20	1459.48	66.59%	32.95%	+10.88	8-1
1988-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 13-3	1531.08	1518.07	42.88%	56.62%	+11.15	9-1
1988-11-14	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-6	1542.23	1503.43	46.54%	52.95%	+16.49	10-1
1988-11-20	New York Jets	W 9-6	1558.72	1490.23	67.58%	31.97%	+3.46	11-1
1988-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-35	1562.18	1543.75	43.64%	55.86%	-10.18	11-2
1988-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 5-10	1552.00	1384.43	64.60%	34.93%	-8.99	11-3
1988-12-11	Los Angeles Raiders	W 37-21	1543.01	1483.61	66.42%	33.12%	+8.26	12-3
1988-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-17	1551.27	1518.35	45.70%	53.79%	-4.94	12-4
1988-09-04	Miami Dolphins	W 34-7	1539.55	1509.94	62.51%	37.01%	+12.00	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-13	1551.55	1493.84	49.26%	50.24%	+6.26	2-0
1988-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1557.81	1539.88	60.93%	38.59%	-18.58	2-1
1988-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-6	1539.23	1438.84	55.37%	44.12%	+11.67	3-1
1988-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 24-3	1550.90	1499.93	65.34%	34.20%	+9.77	4-1
1988-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1560.67	1436.27	58.75%	40.75%	+10.48	5-1
1988-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-7	1571.15	1474.97	70.96%	28.62%	+5.65	6-1
1988-10-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-9	1576.80	1582.05	57.72%	41.79%	+2.60	7-1
1988-10-30	@ New England Patriots	L 7-30	1579.40	1488.57	54.01%	45.48%	-16.13	7-2
1988-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-10	1563.27	1396.90	78.51%	21.14%	+5.59	8-2
1988-11-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-14	1568.86	1569.12	41.02%	58.49%	+16.29	9-2
1988-11-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-15	1585.15	1397.86	67.15%	32.40%	+7.00	10-2
1988-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 16-0	1592.15	1414.91	79.54%	20.12%	+5.01	11-2
1988-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-23	1597.16	1508.29	53.73%	45.76%	-14.96	11-3
1988-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 13-12	1582.20	1413.39	78.74%	20.91%	+1.30	12-3
1988-12-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1583.50	1584.83	40.87%	58.64%	-2.55	12-4
1988-09-04	Phoenix Cardinals	W 21-14	1469.71	1482.17	56.70%	42.80%	+7.06	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1476.77	1505.42	37.14%	62.38%	+7.76	2-0
1988-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-12	1484.53	1497.88	39.21%	60.30%	+8.40	3-0
1988-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-17	1492.93	1553.05	49.89%	49.60%	+8.18	4-0
1988-10-02	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 45-21	1501.11	1495.33	41.86%	57.64%	+17.58	5-0
1988-10-09	New York Jets	W 36-19	1518.69	1515.16	58.94%	40.57%	+10.43	6-0
1988-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 21-27	1529.12	1485.44	47.24%	52.25%	-7.21	6-1
1988-10-23	Houston Oilers	W 44-21	1521.91	1513.14	59.67%	39.84%	+11.92	7-1
1988-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-23	1533.83	1564.63	36.85%	62.67%	-6.08	7-2
1988-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-7	1527.75	1456.75	67.89%	31.66%	+11.68	8-2
1988-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-31	1539.43	1434.38	56.04%	43.46%	-6.04	8-3
1988-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-24	1533.39	1435.28	55.05%	44.45%	+10.36	9-3
1988-11-27	Buffalo Bills	W 35-21	1543.75	1562.18	55.86%	43.64%	+10.19	10-3
1988-12-04	San Diego Chargers	W 27-10	1553.94	1424.63	74.71%	24.90%	+6.40	11-3
1988-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-41	1560.34	1531.09	45.18%	54.32%	-16.66	11-4
1988-12-17	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1543.68	1527.39	60.70%	38.81%	+4.19	12-4
1988-09-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 6-3	1562.91	1471.42	54.11%	45.39%	+4.90	1-0
1988-09-11	New York Jets	L 3-23	1567.81	1470.00	71.15%	28.43%	-19.80	1-1
1988-09-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-17	1548.01	1487.57	66.56%	32.99%	+5.04	2-1
1988-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1553.05	1492.93	49.60%	49.89%	-8.17	2-2
1988-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-9	1544.88	1482.32	49.95%	49.54%	+11.55	3-2
1988-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-16	1556.43	1520.12	63.41%	36.12%	-9.67	3-3
1988-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-3	1546.76	1506.46	63.94%	35.59%	+8.88	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 29-21	1555.64	1503.38	48.47%	51.02%	+8.99	5-3
1988-10-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-16	1564.63	1533.83	62.67%	36.85%	+6.08	6-3
1988-11-07	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-24	1570.71	1517.21	48.65%	50.84%	-8.02	6-4
1988-11-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-30	1562.69	1521.90	46.83%	52.67%	-14.00	6-5
1988-11-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-7	1548.69	1441.91	72.19%	27.39%	+7.64	7-5
1988-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1556.33	1543.16	42.90%	56.60%	+7.05	8-5
1988-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-21	1563.38	1417.28	76.48%	23.14%	+2.50	9-5
1988-12-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 31-38	1565.88	1470.51	54.66%	44.84%	-9.01	9-6
1988-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 28-23	1556.87	1547.75	59.72%	39.79%	+5.55	10-6
1988-09-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1489.62	1495.58	40.23%	59.28%	-4.34	0-1
1988-09-12	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 17-14	1485.28	1475.11	42.48%	57.03%	+6.15	1-1
1988-09-18	New York Giants	L 10-12	1491.43	1517.16	54.82%	44.68%	-4.83	1-2
1988-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-20	1486.60	1421.35	67.17%	32.38%	+4.95	2-2
1988-10-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1491.55	1546.12	33.74%	65.80%	-3.65	2-3
1988-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 17-35	1487.90	1554.83	48.91%	50.58%	-12.93	2-4
1988-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1474.97	1571.15	28.62%	70.96%	-5.64	2-5
1988-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1469.33	1497.58	37.19%	62.33%	-2.32	2-6
1988-10-30	Phoenix Cardinals	L 10-16	1467.01	1494.39	54.59%	44.91%	-8.33	2-7
1988-11-06	@ New York Giants	L 21-29	1458.68	1523.65	32.41%	67.13%	-5.72	2-8
1988-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 3-43	1452.96	1548.37	44.83%	54.67%	-17.68	2-9
1988-11-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-38	1435.28	1533.39	44.45%	55.05%	-10.37	2-10
1988-11-24	Houston Oilers	L 17-25	1424.91	1531.12	43.30%	56.20%	-7.63	2-11
1988-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-24	1417.28	1563.38	23.14%	76.48%	-2.50	2-12
1988-12-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-17	1414.78	1539.60	25.38%	74.22%	+12.21	3-12
1988-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1426.99	1524.42	44.54%	54.95%	-11.11	3-13
1988-09-04	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-21	1539.77	1521.43	60.98%	38.53%	-10.05	0-1
1988-09-11	San Diego Chargers	W 34-3	1529.72	1460.36	67.69%	31.86%	+11.07	1-1
1988-09-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1540.79	1457.25	52.97%	46.53%	-8.73	1-2
1988-09-26	Los Angeles Raiders	L 27-30	1532.06	1488.39	64.38%	35.15%	-6.94	1-3
1988-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 12-0	1525.12	1464.16	49.73%	49.77%	+10.74	2-3
1988-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1535.86	1583.34	34.65%	64.88%	+6.99	3-3
1988-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-14	1542.85	1392.01	76.97%	22.66%	+5.66	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-39	1548.51	1446.50	55.61%	43.89%	-14.70	4-4
1988-10-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-55	1533.81	1490.85	47.14%	52.36%	-16.62	4-5
1988-11-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-11	1517.19	1439.08	68.78%	30.78%	+4.71	5-5
1988-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-7	1521.90	1562.69	52.67%	46.83%	+13.99	6-5
1988-11-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-42	1535.89	1564.24	37.18%	62.34%	-15.02	6-6
1988-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-24	1520.87	1516.66	59.04%	40.47%	+8.37	7-6
1988-12-04	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1529.24	1480.62	47.95%	51.54%	-2.99	7-7
1988-12-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-42	1526.25	1506.73	43.80%	55.70%	-14.45	7-8
1988-12-17	New England Patriots	W 21-10	1511.80	1527.09	56.30%	43.20%	+8.93	8-8
1988-09-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-17	1454.14	1416.60	63.57%	35.95%	+8.39	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1462.53	1509.78	34.68%	64.85%	-5.72	1-1
1988-09-18	New Orleans Saints	L 14-22	1456.81	1534.58	47.35%	52.14%	-8.35	1-2
1988-09-25	New York Jets	L 10-17	1448.46	1507.40	50.06%	49.43%	-8.25	1-3
1988-10-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-20	1440.21	1579.41	23.85%	75.76%	-3.94	1-4
1988-10-09	Chicago Bears	L 7-24	1436.27	1560.67	40.75%	58.75%	-10.48	1-5
1988-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 10-30	1425.79	1503.56	30.83%	68.73%	-8.60	1-6
1988-10-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 7-6	1417.19	1449.18	36.69%	62.83%	+3.92	2-6
1988-10-30	New York Giants	L 10-13	1421.11	1518.85	44.50%	55.00%	-4.81	2-7
1988-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-44	1416.30	1540.11	25.49%	74.11%	-8.26	2-8
1988-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1408.04	1391.30	60.76%	38.75%	-6.55	2-9
1988-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 19-9	1401.49	1427.11	37.55%	61.98%	+12.20	3-9
1988-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-23	1413.69	1572.75	36.05%	63.48%	-10.79	3-10
1988-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 30-14	1402.90	1409.89	57.47%	42.03%	+10.49	4-10
1988-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-13	1413.39	1582.20	20.91%	78.74%	-1.31	4-11
1988-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-21	1412.08	1390.75	44.05%	55.45%	-9.11	4-12
1988-09-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-34	1469.16	1491.91	55.24%	44.25%	-17.88	0-1
1988-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1451.28	1421.44	62.54%	36.98%	-6.75	0-2
1988-09-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1444.53	1493.28	34.49%	65.05%	-5.69	0-3
1988-09-25	Chicago Bears	L 6-24	1438.84	1539.23	44.12%	55.37%	-11.67	0-4
1988-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-27	1427.17	1416.96	42.48%	57.02%	-4.59	0-5
1988-10-09	New England Patriots	W 45-3	1422.58	1506.87	46.42%	53.08%	+21.43	1-5
1988-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-14	1444.01	1549.91	27.49%	72.09%	+20.06	2-5
1988-10-23	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1464.07	1576.13	42.48%	57.03%	-4.59	2-6
1988-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-28	1459.48	1520.20	32.95%	66.59%	-10.88	2-7
1988-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-20	1448.60	1387.61	49.73%	49.76%	-13.85	2-8
1988-11-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1434.75	1519.96	46.29%	53.21%	-7.64	2-9
1988-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 9-19	1427.11	1401.49	61.98%	37.55%	-12.20	2-10
1988-11-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-16	1414.91	1592.15	20.12%	79.54%	-5.02	2-11
1988-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-30	1409.89	1402.90	42.03%	57.47%	-10.48	2-12
1988-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 18-6	1399.41	1599.65	30.79%	68.76%	+14.82	3-12
1988-12-18	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 26-17	1414.23	1472.29	33.29%	66.25%	+12.37	4-12
1988-09-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-14	1497.03	1500.19	40.62%	58.89%	+6.36	1-0
1988-09-11	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-35	1503.39	1500.55	58.85%	40.66%	+4.39	2-0
1988-09-18	@ New York Jets	L 3-45	1507.78	1489.79	43.58%	55.92%	-17.61	2-1
1988-09-25	New England Patriots	W 31-6	1490.17	1515.95	54.81%	44.68%	+13.93	3-1
1988-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-32	1504.10	1489.48	43.10%	56.40%	-8.07	3-2
1988-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 7-6	1496.03	1462.79	63.00%	36.52%	+2.28	4-2
1988-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-14	1498.31	1461.32	46.28%	53.21%	+14.83	5-2
1988-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-44	1513.14	1521.91	39.84%	59.67%	-11.92	5-3
1988-10-30	Washington Redskins	W 41-17	1501.22	1580.72	47.10%	52.39%	+15.99	6-3
1988-11-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-17	1517.21	1570.71	50.84%	48.65%	+8.02	7-3
1988-11-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1525.23	1506.92	43.63%	55.87%	-4.71	7-4
1988-11-20	Phoenix Cardinals	W 38-20	1520.52	1513.31	59.45%	40.06%	+10.60	8-4
1988-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 25-17	1531.12	1424.91	56.20%	43.30%	+7.64	9-4
1988-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 34-37	1538.76	1440.79	71.17%	28.41%	-7.67	9-5
1988-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-6	1531.09	1560.34	54.32%	45.18%	+16.66	10-5
1988-12-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-28	1547.75	1556.87	39.79%	59.72%	-5.55	10-6
1988-09-04	Houston Oilers	L 14-17	1500.19	1497.03	58.89%	40.62%	-6.35	0-1
1988-09-11	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1493.84	1551.55	50.24%	49.26%	-6.27	0-2
1988-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1487.57	1548.01	32.99%	66.56%	-5.04	0-3
1988-09-25	Miami Dolphins	W 15-13	1482.53	1498.97	56.14%	43.36%	+3.83	1-3
1988-10-02	@ New England Patriots	L 17-21	1486.36	1502.02	38.90%	60.62%	-4.85	1-4
1988-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-34	1481.51	1490.15	39.86%	59.65%	-8.25	1-5
1988-10-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-31	1473.26	1419.97	65.64%	33.90%	+4.23	2-5
1988-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-0	1477.49	1443.18	45.90%	53.60%	+13.36	3-5
1988-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 55-23	1490.85	1533.81	52.36%	47.14%	+16.62	4-5
1988-11-06	New York Jets	W 38-14	1507.47	1506.19	58.63%	40.88%	+12.49	5-5
1988-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-13	1519.96	1434.75	53.21%	46.29%	+7.63	6-5
1988-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-12	1527.59	1566.05	35.83%	63.69%	-6.71	6-6
1988-11-27	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1520.88	1522.73	58.19%	41.31%	+4.47	7-6
1988-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1525.35	1476.06	48.05%	51.45%	+5.55	8-6
1988-12-10	@ New York Jets	L 16-34	1530.90	1485.75	47.45%	52.04%	-12.55	8-7
1988-12-18	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1518.35	1551.27	53.79%	45.70%	+4.93	9-7
1988-09-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-6	1471.42	1562.91	45.39%	54.11%	-4.90	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-31	1466.52	1531.48	32.41%	67.13%	-9.27	0-2
1988-09-18	Denver Broncos	W 20-13	1457.25	1540.79	46.53%	52.97%	+8.73	1-2
1988-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 23-24	1465.98	1460.47	59.22%	40.29%	-3.69	1-3
1988-10-02	@ New York Jets	T 17-17	1462.29	1515.66	33.89%	65.65%	+0.50	1-3
1988-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-7	1462.79	1496.03	36.52%	63.00%	-2.28	1-4
1988-10-16	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-27	1460.51	1467.08	57.53%	41.97%	-11.33	1-5
1988-10-23	Detroit Lions	L 6-7	1449.18	1417.19	62.83%	36.69%	-3.91	1-6
1988-10-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-17	1445.27	1471.32	37.49%	62.03%	-6.19	1-7
1988-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 11-17	1439.08	1517.19	30.78%	68.78%	-4.70	1-8
1988-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-28	1434.38	1539.43	43.46%	56.04%	+6.04	2-8
1988-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1440.42	1511.63	48.29%	51.20%	+5.53	3-8
1988-11-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1445.95	1434.27	42.69%	56.81%	-6.52	3-9
1988-12-04	New York Jets	W 38-34	1439.43	1491.80	51.00%	48.49%	+6.04	4-9
1988-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 12-28	1445.47	1531.35	29.84%	69.72%	-7.44	4-10
1988-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-24	1438.03	1425.14	42.86%	56.64%	-8.87	4-11
1988-09-04	San Diego Chargers	W 24-13	1492.75	1468.15	61.84%	37.68%	+7.80	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 35-38	1500.55	1503.39	40.66%	58.85%	-4.40	1-1
1988-09-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-22	1496.15	1515.51	55.73%	43.77%	-7.76	1-2
1988-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1488.39	1532.06	35.15%	64.38%	+6.94	2-2
1988-10-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-45	1495.33	1501.11	57.64%	41.86%	-17.58	2-3
1988-10-09	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1477.75	1508.12	54.16%	45.34%	-10.67	2-4
1988-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1467.08	1460.51	41.97%	57.53%	+11.33	3-4
1988-10-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-20	1478.41	1559.99	30.36%	69.20%	-7.09	3-5
1988-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1471.32	1445.27	62.03%	37.49%	+6.19	4-5
1988-11-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-3	1477.51	1426.59	48.28%	51.21%	+10.09	5-5
1988-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 9-3	1487.60	1580.08	29.05%	70.52%	+10.75	6-5
1988-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-12	1498.35	1395.39	71.75%	27.83%	-10.94	6-6
1988-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 27-35	1487.41	1506.10	38.48%	61.03%	-6.79	6-7
1988-12-04	Denver Broncos	W 21-20	1480.62	1529.24	51.54%	47.95%	+2.99	7-7
1988-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-37	1483.61	1543.01	33.12%	66.42%	-8.26	7-8
1988-12-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 37-43	1475.35	1521.18	51.94%	47.55%	-7.93	7-9
1988-09-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-7	1491.91	1469.16	44.25%	55.24%	+17.87	1-0
1988-09-11	Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1509.78	1462.53	64.85%	34.68%	+5.73	2-0
1988-09-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 22-17	1515.51	1496.15	43.77%	55.73%	+7.76	3-0
1988-09-25	@ New York Giants	W 45-31	1523.27	1521.99	41.23%	58.27%	+13.58	4-0
1988-10-02	Phoenix Cardinals	L 27-41	1536.85	1487.12	65.18%	34.36%	-15.18	4-1
1988-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-0	1521.67	1407.10	57.38%	42.12%	+15.09	5-1
1988-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1536.76	1576.35	52.84%	46.66%	-5.70	5-2
1988-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-10	1531.06	1526.38	59.10%	40.41%	+11.54	6-2
1988-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 12-10	1542.60	1567.08	37.70%	61.82%	+5.45	7-2
1988-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-30	1548.05	1491.96	49.02%	50.47%	-7.49	7-3
1988-11-13	New Orleans Saints	L 10-14	1540.56	1557.25	56.10%	43.40%	-6.99	7-4
1988-11-20	San Diego Chargers	L 24-38	1533.57	1422.58	72.67%	26.91%	-16.91	7-5
1988-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-35	1516.66	1520.87	40.47%	59.04%	-8.37	7-6
1988-12-05	Chicago Bears	W 23-3	1508.29	1597.16	45.76%	53.73%	+14.97	8-6
1988-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-7	1523.26	1406.20	73.36%	26.24%	+6.33	9-6
1988-12-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-16	1529.59	1608.40	30.70%	68.86%	+20.10	10-6
1988-09-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1509.94	1539.55	37.01%	62.51%	-11.99	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-9	1497.95	1482.54	43.22%	56.29%	-4.67	0-2
1988-09-18	Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1493.28	1444.53	65.05%	34.49%	+5.69	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-15	1498.97	1482.53	43.36%	56.14%	-3.82	1-3
1988-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1495.15	1561.31	49.02%	50.47%	+12.97	2-3
1988-10-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-14	1508.12	1477.75	45.34%	54.16%	+10.66	3-3
1988-10-16	San Diego Chargers	W 31-28	1518.78	1446.59	68.04%	31.51%	+3.41	4-3
1988-10-23	New York Jets	L 30-44	1522.19	1487.02	63.26%	36.27%	-14.73	4-4
1988-10-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1507.46	1401.58	56.15%	43.35%	+4.68	5-4
1988-11-06	@ New England Patriots	L 10-21	1512.14	1504.70	42.09%	57.41%	-8.71	5-5
1988-11-14	Buffalo Bills	L 6-31	1503.43	1542.23	52.95%	46.54%	-16.49	5-6
1988-11-20	New England Patriots	L 3-6	1486.94	1516.88	54.22%	45.28%	-5.85	5-7
1988-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 34-38	1481.09	1486.77	40.27%	59.24%	-5.03	5-8
1988-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1476.06	1525.35	51.45%	48.05%	-5.55	5-9
1988-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-31	1470.51	1565.88	44.84%	54.66%	+9.01	6-9
1988-12-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-40	1479.52	1441.54	46.43%	53.07%	-11.58	6-10
1988-09-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-13	1530.60	1477.29	48.62%	50.87%	-5.25	0-1
1988-09-11	New England Patriots	W 36-6	1525.35	1536.04	56.95%	42.55%	+14.53	1-1
1988-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1539.88	1557.81	38.59%	60.93%	+18.58	2-1
1988-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1558.46	1492.32	67.28%	32.27%	+2.85	3-1
1988-10-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-24	1561.31	1495.15	50.47%	49.02%	-12.97	3-2
1988-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-13	1548.34	1421.54	74.44%	25.17%	+1.57	4-2
1988-10-16	Green Bay Packers	L 14-34	1549.91	1444.01	72.09%	27.49%	-20.06	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 49-20	1529.85	1415.74	57.31%	42.19%	+14.17	5-3
1988-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1544.02	1579.44	36.24%	63.29%	-3.91	5-4
1988-11-06	Detroit Lions	W 44-17	1540.11	1416.30	74.11%	25.49%	+8.26	6-4
1988-11-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 43-3	1548.37	1452.96	54.67%	44.83%	+17.68	7-4
1988-11-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 12-3	1566.05	1527.59	63.69%	35.83%	+6.70	8-4
1988-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-0	1572.75	1413.69	63.48%	36.05%	+10.78	9-4
1988-12-04	New Orleans Saints	W 45-3	1583.53	1575.08	59.63%	39.89%	+16.12	10-4
1988-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-18	1599.65	1399.41	68.76%	30.79%	-14.82	10-5
1988-12-19	Chicago Bears	W 28-27	1584.83	1583.50	58.64%	40.87%	+2.55	11-5
1988-09-04	New York Jets	W 28-3	1525.10	1480.94	64.45%	35.08%	+10.94	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 6-36	1536.04	1525.35	42.55%	56.95%	-14.53	1-1
1988-09-18	Buffalo Bills	L 14-16	1521.51	1487.21	63.14%	36.38%	-5.56	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-31	1515.95	1490.17	44.68%	54.81%	-13.93	1-3
1988-10-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-17	1502.02	1486.36	60.62%	38.90%	+4.85	2-3
1988-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-45	1506.87	1422.58	53.08%	46.42%	-21.43	2-4
1988-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-21	1485.44	1529.12	52.25%	47.24%	+7.22	3-4
1988-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1492.66	1516.11	37.84%	61.68%	-4.09	3-5
1988-10-30	Chicago Bears	W 30-7	1488.57	1579.40	45.48%	54.01%	+16.13	4-5
1988-11-06	Miami Dolphins	W 21-10	1504.70	1512.14	57.41%	42.09%	+8.71	5-5
1988-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 14-13	1513.41	1493.70	43.82%	55.68%	+3.47	6-5
1988-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 6-3	1516.88	1486.94	45.28%	54.22%	+5.85	7-5
1988-11-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 21-24	1522.73	1520.88	41.31%	58.19%	-4.46	7-6
1988-12-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-7	1518.27	1512.89	59.20%	40.31%	+6.15	8-6
1988-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-7	1524.42	1393.42	74.89%	24.72%	+2.67	9-6
1988-12-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-21	1527.09	1511.80	43.20%	56.30%	-8.93	9-7
1988-09-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 33-34	1530.53	1572.35	52.52%	46.98%	-3.27	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-21	1527.26	1408.20	58.01%	41.50%	+7.32	1-1
1988-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 22-14	1534.58	1456.81	52.14%	47.35%	+8.34	2-1
1988-09-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-9	1542.92	1420.15	73.99%	25.61%	+3.20	3-1
1988-10-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1546.12	1491.55	65.80%	33.74%	+3.64	4-1
1988-10-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-17	1549.76	1453.41	54.80%	44.70%	+6.83	5-1
1988-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-19	1556.59	1529.79	44.83%	54.67%	+3.40	6-1
1988-10-23	Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-6	1559.99	1478.41	69.20%	30.36%	+7.09	7-1
1988-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-12	1567.08	1542.60	61.82%	37.70%	-5.44	7-2
1988-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1561.64	1564.73	40.63%	58.88%	-4.39	7-3
1988-11-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-10	1557.25	1540.56	43.40%	56.10%	+6.99	8-3
1988-11-20	Denver Broncos	W 42-0	1564.24	1535.89	62.34%	37.18%	+15.03	9-3
1988-11-27	New York Giants	L 12-13	1579.27	1512.73	67.33%	32.22%	-4.19	9-4
1988-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-45	1575.08	1583.53	39.89%	59.63%	-16.12	9-5
1988-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-30	1558.96	1600.43	35.44%	64.09%	-7.97	9-6
1988-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-9	1550.99	1399.87	77.00%	22.63%	+1.41	10-6
1988-09-05	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1514.60	1569.70	50.61%	48.88%	+8.06	1-0
1988-09-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1522.66	1575.63	50.92%	48.58%	-5.50	1-1
1988-09-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 12-10	1517.16	1491.43	44.68%	54.82%	+4.83	2-1
1988-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 31-45	1521.99	1523.27	58.27%	41.23%	-13.57	2-2
1988-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1508.42	1558.89	34.26%	65.27%	+4.06	3-2
1988-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-24	1512.48	1497.54	43.15%	56.35%	-8.92	3-3
1988-10-16	Detroit Lions	W 30-10	1503.56	1425.79	68.73%	30.83%	+8.59	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-16	1512.15	1386.36	58.95%	40.56%	+6.70	5-3
1988-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-10	1518.85	1421.11	55.00%	44.50%	+4.80	6-3
1988-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-21	1523.65	1458.68	67.13%	32.41%	+5.72	7-3
1988-11-13	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 17-24	1529.37	1505.99	44.34%	55.15%	-7.31	7-4
1988-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1522.06	1502.60	61.14%	38.38%	-9.33	7-5
1988-11-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 13-12	1512.73	1579.27	32.22%	67.33%	+4.19	8-5
1988-12-04	Phoenix Cardinals	W 44-7	1516.92	1494.86	61.49%	38.03%	+14.43	9-5
1988-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-12	1531.35	1445.47	69.72%	29.84%	+7.45	10-5
1988-12-18	@ New York Jets	L 21-27	1538.80	1498.30	46.79%	52.71%	-7.15	10-6
1988-09-04	@ New England Patriots	L 3-28	1480.94	1525.10	35.08%	64.45%	-10.94	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-3	1470.00	1567.81	28.43%	71.15%	+19.79	1-1
1988-09-18	Houston Oilers	W 45-3	1489.79	1507.78	55.92%	43.58%	+17.61	2-1
1988-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1507.40	1448.46	49.43%	50.06%	+8.26	3-1
1988-10-02	Kansas City Chiefs	T 17-17	1515.66	1462.29	65.65%	33.89%	-0.50	3-1
1988-10-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-36	1515.16	1518.69	40.57%	58.94%	-10.43	3-2
1988-10-17	Buffalo Bills	L 14-37	1504.73	1498.40	59.33%	40.18%	-17.71	3-3
1988-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 44-30	1487.02	1522.19	36.27%	63.26%	+14.73	4-3
1988-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1501.75	1461.19	63.97%	35.56%	+4.44	5-3
1988-11-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-38	1506.19	1507.47	40.88%	58.63%	-12.49	5-4
1988-11-13	New England Patriots	L 13-14	1493.70	1513.41	55.68%	43.82%	-3.47	5-5
1988-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-9	1490.23	1558.72	31.97%	67.58%	-3.46	5-6
1988-11-27	Miami Dolphins	W 38-34	1486.77	1481.09	59.24%	40.27%	+5.03	6-6
1988-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-38	1491.80	1439.43	48.49%	51.00%	-6.05	6-7
1988-12-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-16	1485.75	1530.90	52.04%	47.45%	+12.55	7-7
1988-12-18	New York Giants	W 27-21	1498.30	1538.80	52.71%	46.79%	+7.14	8-7
1988-09-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-14	1488.83	1438.03	48.26%	51.23%	+16.59	1-0
1988-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-28	1505.42	1476.77	62.38%	37.14%	-7.77	1-1
1988-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1497.65	1563.69	32.28%	67.27%	-5.33	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1492.32	1558.46	32.27%	67.28%	-2.84	1-3
1988-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 32-23	1489.48	1504.10	56.40%	43.10%	+8.06	2-3
1988-10-10	New York Giants	W 24-13	1497.54	1512.48	56.35%	43.15%	+8.92	3-3
1988-10-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-19	1506.46	1546.76	35.59%	63.94%	-8.88	3-4
1988-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1497.58	1469.33	62.33%	37.19%	+2.32	4-4
1988-10-30	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1499.90	1379.67	73.71%	25.88%	-7.94	4-5
1988-11-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-24	1491.96	1548.05	50.47%	49.02%	+7.48	5-5
1988-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-26	1499.44	1445.07	48.78%	50.72%	+3.16	6-5
1988-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 23-17	1502.60	1522.06	38.38%	61.14%	+9.33	7-5
1988-11-27	Phoenix Cardinals	W 31-21	1511.93	1502.71	59.73%	39.78%	+7.84	8-5
1988-12-04	Washington Redskins	L 19-20	1519.77	1536.11	56.15%	43.35%	-3.49	8-6
1988-12-10	@ Phoenix Cardinals	W 23-17	1516.28	1480.44	46.12%	53.38%	+8.14	9-6
1988-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-7	1524.42	1426.99	54.95%	44.54%	+11.11	10-6
1988-09-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1482.17	1469.71	42.80%	56.70%	-7.06	0-1
1988-09-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1475.11	1485.28	57.03%	42.48%	-6.15	0-2
1988-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-24	1468.96	1428.19	46.82%	52.67%	+8.04	1-2
1988-09-25	Washington Redskins	W 30-21	1477.00	1569.02	45.31%	54.18%	+10.12	2-2
1988-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 41-27	1487.12	1536.85	34.36%	65.18%	+15.18	3-2
1988-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1502.30	1470.77	62.77%	36.75%	+9.45	4-2
1988-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-33	1511.75	1567.76	33.55%	65.99%	-8.37	4-3
1988-10-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-29	1503.38	1555.64	51.02%	48.47%	-8.99	4-4
1988-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 16-10	1494.39	1467.01	44.91%	54.59%	+8.33	5-4
1988-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-23	1502.72	1583.36	46.94%	52.55%	+3.27	6-4
1988-11-13	New York Giants	W 24-17	1505.99	1529.37	55.15%	44.34%	+7.32	7-4
1988-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-38	1513.31	1520.52	40.06%	59.45%	-10.60	7-5
1988-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-31	1502.71	1511.93	39.78%	59.73%	-7.85	7-6
1988-12-04	@ New York Giants	L 7-44	1494.86	1516.92	38.03%	61.49%	-14.42	7-7
1988-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1480.44	1516.28	53.38%	46.12%	-8.15	7-8
1988-12-18	Green Bay Packers	L 17-26	1472.29	1414.23	66.25%	33.29%	-12.37	7-9
1988-09-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-21	1495.58	1489.62	59.28%	40.23%	+4.35	1-0
1988-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 29-30	1499.93	1561.64	32.82%	66.72%	-2.05	1-1
1988-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-17	1497.88	1484.53	60.30%	39.21%	-8.40	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-36	1489.48	1492.77	40.60%	58.91%	-7.16	1-3
1988-10-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-23	1482.32	1544.88	49.54%	49.95%	-11.55	1-4
1988-10-09	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 14-31	1470.77	1502.30	36.75%	62.77%	-9.45	1-5
1988-10-16	Houston Oilers	L 14-34	1461.32	1498.31	53.21%	46.28%	-14.82	1-6
1988-10-23	Denver Broncos	W 39-21	1446.50	1548.51	43.89%	55.61%	+14.69	2-6
1988-10-30	@ New York Jets	L 20-24	1461.19	1501.75	35.56%	63.97%	-4.44	2-7
1988-11-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-42	1456.75	1527.75	31.66%	67.89%	-11.68	2-8
1988-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 26-27	1445.07	1499.44	50.72%	48.78%	-3.16	2-9
1988-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1441.91	1548.69	27.39%	72.19%	-7.64	2-10
1988-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1434.27	1445.95	56.81%	42.69%	+6.52	3-10
1988-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-34	1440.79	1538.76	28.41%	71.17%	+7.67	4-10
1988-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1448.46	1418.22	45.32%	54.18%	-6.92	4-11
1988-12-18	Miami Dolphins	W 40-24	1441.54	1479.52	53.07%	46.43%	+11.57	5-11
1988-09-04	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-24	1468.15	1492.75	37.68%	61.84%	-7.79	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-34	1460.36	1529.72	31.86%	67.69%	-11.07	0-2
1988-09-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-6	1449.29	1540.74	45.40%	54.10%	+11.18	1-2
1988-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-23	1460.47	1465.98	40.29%	59.22%	+3.69	2-2
1988-10-02	Denver Broncos	L 0-12	1464.16	1525.12	49.77%	49.73%	-10.75	2-3
1988-10-09	New Orleans Saints	L 17-23	1453.41	1549.76	44.70%	54.80%	-6.82	2-4
1988-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-31	1446.59	1518.78	31.51%	68.04%	-3.41	2-5
1988-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 0-16	1443.18	1477.49	53.60%	45.90%	-13.35	2-6
1988-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-17	1429.83	1514.83	29.95%	69.62%	-3.24	2-7
1988-11-06	Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-13	1426.59	1477.51	51.21%	48.28%	-10.09	2-8
1988-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 10-7	1416.50	1401.47	43.16%	56.34%	+6.08	3-8
1988-11-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-24	1422.58	1533.57	26.91%	72.67%	+16.92	4-8
1988-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-48	1439.50	1579.01	38.67%	60.84%	-14.87	4-9
1988-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1424.63	1553.94	24.90%	74.71%	-6.41	4-10
1988-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-14	1418.22	1448.46	54.18%	45.32%	+6.92	5-10
1988-12-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-13	1425.14	1438.03	56.64%	42.86%	+8.87	6-10
1988-09-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-33	1572.35	1530.53	46.98%	52.52%	+3.28	1-0
1988-09-11	@ New York Giants	W 20-17	1575.63	1522.66	48.58%	50.92%	+5.49	2-0
1988-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1581.12	1400.89	79.82%	19.84%	-20.46	2-1
1988-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-7	1560.66	1529.57	45.44%	54.06%	+18.75	3-1
1988-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1579.41	1440.21	75.76%	23.85%	+3.93	4-1
1988-10-09	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1583.34	1535.86	64.88%	34.65%	-6.99	4-2
1988-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1576.35	1536.76	46.66%	52.84%	+5.70	5-2
1988-10-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1582.05	1576.80	41.79%	57.72%	-2.61	5-3
1988-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1579.44	1544.02	63.29%	36.24%	+3.92	6-3
1988-11-06	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 23-24	1583.36	1502.72	52.55%	46.94%	-3.28	6-4
1988-11-13	Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-9	1580.08	1487.60	70.52%	29.05%	-10.74	6-5
1988-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 37-21	1569.34	1552.83	60.73%	38.78%	+9.67	7-5
1988-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 48-10	1579.01	1439.50	60.84%	38.67%	+14.87	8-5
1988-12-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-3	1593.88	1412.75	66.36%	33.18%	+6.55	9-5
1988-12-11	New Orleans Saints	W 30-17	1600.43	1558.96	64.09%	35.44%	+7.97	10-5
1988-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-38	1608.40	1529.59	68.86%	30.70%	-20.10	10-6
1988-09-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 21-14	1521.43	1539.77	38.53%	60.98%	+10.05	1-0
1988-09-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-10	1531.48	1466.52	67.13%	32.41%	+9.26	2-0
1988-09-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-17	1540.74	1449.29	54.10%	45.40%	-11.17	2-1
1988-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-38	1529.57	1560.66	54.06%	45.44%	-18.75	2-2
1988-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-20	1510.82	1416.40	54.53%	44.97%	+9.30	3-2
1988-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-10	1520.12	1556.43	36.12%	63.41%	+9.67	4-2
1988-10-16	New Orleans Saints	L 19-20	1529.79	1556.59	54.67%	44.83%	-3.41	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-31	1526.38	1531.06	40.41%	59.10%	-11.55	4-4
1988-10-30	San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1514.83	1429.83	69.62%	29.95%	+3.24	5-4
1988-11-06	Buffalo Bills	L 3-13	1518.07	1531.08	56.62%	42.88%	-11.15	5-5
1988-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 27-24	1506.92	1525.23	55.87%	43.63%	+4.71	6-5
1988-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1511.63	1440.42	51.20%	48.29%	-5.53	6-6
1988-11-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 35-27	1506.10	1487.41	61.03%	38.48%	+6.79	7-6
1988-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 7-13	1512.89	1518.27	40.31%	59.20%	-6.16	7-7
1988-12-11	Denver Broncos	W 42-14	1506.73	1526.25	55.70%	43.80%	+14.45	8-7
1988-12-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 43-37	1521.18	1475.35	47.55%	51.94%	+7.93	9-7
1988-09-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-41	1438.03	1488.83	51.23%	48.26%	-16.59	0-1
1988-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1421.44	1451.28	36.98%	62.54%	+6.75	1-1
1988-09-18	Phoenix Cardinals	L 24-30	1428.19	1468.96	52.67%	46.82%	-8.04	1-2
1988-09-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-13	1420.15	1542.92	25.61%	73.99%	-3.19	1-3
1988-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1416.96	1427.17	57.02%	42.48%	+4.58	2-3
1988-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-14	1421.54	1548.34	25.17%	74.44%	-1.57	2-4
1988-10-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-35	1419.97	1473.26	33.90%	65.64%	-4.23	2-5
1988-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-49	1415.74	1529.85	42.19%	57.31%	-14.16	2-6
1988-10-30	Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1401.58	1507.46	43.35%	56.15%	-4.68	2-7
1988-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-28	1396.90	1563.27	21.14%	78.51%	-5.60	2-8
1988-11-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1391.30	1408.04	38.75%	60.76%	+6.56	3-8
1988-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 15-27	1397.86	1585.15	32.40%	67.15%	-7.00	3-9
1988-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-17	1390.86	1406.33	38.92%	60.59%	-6.43	3-10
1988-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 10-5	1384.43	1552.00	34.93%	64.60%	+8.99	4-10
1988-12-11	@ New England Patriots	L 7-10	1393.42	1524.42	24.72%	74.89%	-2.67	4-11
1988-12-18	Detroit Lions	W 21-10	1390.75	1412.08	55.45%	44.05%	+9.11	5-11
1988-09-05	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1569.70	1514.60	48.88%	50.61%	-8.06	0-1
1988-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-29	1561.64	1499.93	66.72%	32.82%	+2.05	1-1
1988-09-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-10	1563.69	1497.65	67.27%	32.28%	+5.33	2-1
1988-09-25	@ Phoenix Cardinals	L 21-30	1569.02	1477.00	54.18%	45.31%	-10.13	2-2
1988-10-02	New York Giants	L 23-24	1558.89	1508.42	65.27%	34.26%	-4.06	2-3
1988-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-17	1554.83	1487.90	50.58%	48.91%	+12.93	3-3
1988-10-16	Phoenix Cardinals	W 33-17	1567.76	1511.75	65.99%	33.55%	+8.37	4-3
1988-10-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1576.13	1464.07	57.03%	42.48%	+4.59	5-3
1988-10-30	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-41	1580.72	1501.22	52.39%	47.10%	-15.99	5-4
1988-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 27-24	1564.73	1561.64	58.88%	40.63%	+4.39	6-4
1988-11-13	Chicago Bears	L 14-34	1569.12	1568.86	58.49%	41.02%	-16.29	6-5
1988-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-37	1552.83	1569.34	38.78%	60.73%	-9.67	6-6
1988-11-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-17	1543.16	1556.33	56.60%	42.90%	-7.05	6-7
1988-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-19	1536.11	1519.77	43.35%	56.15%	+3.49	7-7
1988-12-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1539.60	1414.78	74.22%	25.38%	-12.21	7-8
1988-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1527.39	1543.68	38.81%	60.70%	-4.19	7-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1989-01-01	Houston Oilers	W 17-10	1546.33	1546.01	58.75%	41.25%	+6.77	1-0
1989-01-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-21	1553.10	1554.66	41.08%	58.92%	-8.45	1-1
1988-12-31	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-12	1580.95	1535.53	64.87%	35.13%	+6.16	1-0
1989-01-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-28	1587.11	1601.38	56.70%	43.30%	-17.58	1-1
1988-12-31	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-13	1547.87	1529.11	61.30%	38.70%	+6.79	1-0
1989-01-08	Buffalo Bills	W 21-10	1554.66	1553.10	58.92%	41.08%	+8.44	2-0
1989-01-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1563.10	1618.96	42.03%	57.97%	-5.21	2-1
1988-12-24	Houston Oilers	L 23-24	1562.42	1542.20	61.50%	38.50%	-3.81	0-1
1988-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-23	1542.20	1562.42	38.50%	61.50%	+3.81	1-0
1989-01-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-17	1546.01	1546.33	41.25%	58.75%	-6.76	1-1
1988-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-28	1549.69	1587.38	36.15%	63.85%	-7.43	0-1
1988-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-17	1587.38	1549.69	63.85%	36.15%	+7.43	1-0
1989-01-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-34	1594.81	1588.30	42.21%	57.79%	-13.08	1-1
1988-12-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-20	1535.53	1580.95	35.13%	64.87%	-6.16	0-1
1989-01-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-9	1588.30	1594.81	57.79%	42.21%	+13.08	1-0
1989-01-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-3	1601.38	1587.11	43.30%	56.70%	+17.58	2-0
1989-01-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-16	1618.96	1563.10	57.97%	42.03%	+5.21	3-0
1988-12-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-21	1529.11	1547.87	38.70%	61.30%	-6.79	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1988-09-18	19.84%	Atlanta Falcons	1400.89	34	@ San Francisco 49ers	1581.12	17
2	1988-12-11	25.38%	Dallas Cowboys	1414.78	24	@ Washington Redskins	1539.60	17
3	1988-10-30	25.88%	Atlanta Falcons	1379.67	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1499.90	24
4	1988-11-20	26.91%	San Diego Chargers	1422.58	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1533.57	24
5	1988-10-16	27.49%	Green Bay Packers	1444.01	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1549.91	14
6	1988-11-20	27.83%	Atlanta Falcons	1395.39	12	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1498.35	6
7	1988-12-04	28.41%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1440.79	37	@ Houston Oilers	1538.76	34
8	1988-09-11	28.43%	New York Jets	1470.00	23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1567.81	3
9	1988-11-13	29.05%	Los Angeles Raiders	1487.60	9	@ San Francisco 49ers	1580.08	3
10	1988-12-18	30.70%	Los Angeles Rams	1529.59	38	@ San Francisco 49ers	1608.40	16
11	1988-12-11	30.79%	@ Green Bay Packers	1399.41	18	Minnesota Vikings	1599.65	6
12	1988-11-27	32.22%	New York Giants	1512.73	13	@ New Orleans Saints	1579.27	12
13	1988-12-18	33.29%	Green Bay Packers	1414.23	26	@ Phoenix Cardinals	1472.29	17
14	1988-10-02	34.26%	New York Giants	1508.42	24	@ Washington Redskins	1558.89	23
15	1988-10-02	34.36%	Phoenix Cardinals	1487.12	41	@ Los Angeles Rams	1536.85	27
16	1988-10-09	34.65%	Denver Broncos	1535.86	16	@ San Francisco 49ers	1583.34	13
17	1988-12-04	34.93%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1384.43	10	Buffalo Bills	1552.00	5
18	1988-09-26	35.15%	Los Angeles Raiders	1488.39	30	@ Denver Broncos	1532.06	27
19	1988-10-09	36.12%	Seattle Seahawks	1520.12	16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1556.43	10
20	1988-10-23	36.27%	New York Jets	1487.02	44	@ Miami Dolphins	1522.19	30
21	1988-09-18	36.38%	Buffalo Bills	1487.21	16	@ New England Patriots	1521.51	14
22	1988-10-23	36.69%	Detroit Lions	1417.19	7	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1449.18	6
23	1988-09-11	36.98%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1421.44	13	@ Green Bay Packers	1451.28	10
24	1988-09-11	37.14%	Cincinnati Bengals	1476.77	28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1505.42	24
25	1988-11-20	37.55%	Detroit Lions	1401.49	19	@ Green Bay Packers	1427.11	9

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1988-10-09	21.43	@ Green Bay Packers	45	1422.58	46.42%	New England Patriots	3	1506.87	53.08%
2	1988-09-18	20.46	Atlanta Falcons	34	1400.89	19.84%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1581.12	79.82%
3	1988-12-18	20.10	Los Angeles Rams	38	1529.59	30.70%	@ San Francisco 49ers	16	1608.40	68.86%
4	1988-10-16	20.06	Green Bay Packers	34	1444.01	27.49%	@ Minnesota Vikings	14	1549.91	72.09%
5	1988-09-11	19.80	New York Jets	23	1470.00	28.43%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	1567.81	71.15%
6	1988-09-25	18.75	San Francisco 49ers	38	1560.66	45.44%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1529.57	54.06%
7	1988-09-18	18.58	Minnesota Vikings	31	1539.88	38.59%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1557.81	60.93%
8	1988-09-04	17.88	Los Angeles Rams	34	1491.91	44.25%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1469.16	55.24%
9	1988-10-17	17.71	Buffalo Bills	37	1498.40	40.18%	@ New York Jets	14	1504.73	59.33%
10	1988-11-13	17.68	Minnesota Vikings	43	1548.37	54.67%	@ Dallas Cowboys	3	1452.96	44.83%
11	1988-09-18	17.61	@ New York Jets	45	1489.79	55.92%	Houston Oilers	3	1507.78	43.58%
12	1988-10-02	17.58	Cincinnati Bengals	45	1501.11	41.86%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	21	1495.33	57.64%
13	1989-01-08 *	17.58	San Francisco 49ers	28	1601.38	43.30%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1587.11	56.70%
14	1988-11-20	16.92	San Diego Chargers	38	1422.58	26.91%	@ Los Angeles Rams	24	1533.57	72.67%
15	1988-12-11	16.66	@ Houston Oilers	41	1531.09	54.32%	Cincinnati Bengals	6	1560.34	45.18%
16	1988-10-31	16.62	@ Indianapolis Colts	55	1490.85	52.36%	Denver Broncos	23	1533.81	47.14%
17	1988-09-04	16.59	Philadelphia Eagles	41	1488.83	48.26%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1438.03	51.23%
18	1988-11-14	16.49	Buffalo Bills	31	1542.23	46.54%	@ Miami Dolphins	6	1503.43	52.95%
19	1988-11-13	16.29	Chicago Bears	34	1568.86	41.02%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1569.12	58.49%
20	1988-10-30	16.13	@ New England Patriots	30	1488.57	45.48%	Chicago Bears	7	1579.40	54.01%
21	1988-12-04	16.12	@ Minnesota Vikings	45	1583.53	59.63%	New Orleans Saints	3	1575.08	39.89%
22	1988-10-30	15.99	@ Houston Oilers	41	1501.22	47.10%	Washington Redskins	17	1580.72	52.39%
23	1988-10-02	15.18	Phoenix Cardinals	41	1487.12	34.36%	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1536.85	65.18%
24	1988-10-09	15.09	Los Angeles Rams	33	1521.67	57.38%	@ Atlanta Falcons	0	1407.10	42.12%
25	1988-11-20	15.03	@ New Orleans Saints	42	1564.24	62.34%	Denver Broncos	0	1535.89	37.18%