1987 NFL Season

210 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1982

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1986

Biggest Overachiever

New Orleans Saints

3.77 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.23 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cincinnati Bengals

3.16 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.16 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	5	.667	-	390	239	+151	9.16	+0.84
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	9	6	.600	1	345	349	-4	6.82	+2.18
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	7	.533	2	285	299	-14	7.40	+0.60
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	11	.267	6	285	370	-85	7.16	-3.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	9	6	.600	-	300	238	+62	6.83	+2.17
2	New England Patriots	8	7	.533	1	320	293	+27	8.08	-0.08
3	Miami Dolphins	8	7	.533	1	362	335	+27	8.18	-0.18
4	Buffalo Bills	7	8	.467	2	270	305	-35	5.63	+1.37
5	New York Jets	6	9	.400	3	334	360	-26	7.93	-1.93

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	10	4	1	.700	-	379	288	+91	9.01	+1.49
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	9	6	0	.600	1.5	371	314	+57	8.87	+0.13
3	San Diego Chargers	8	7	0	.533	2.5	253	317	-64	7.30	+0.70
4	Los Angeles Raiders	5	10	0	.333	5.5	301	289	+12	7.37	-2.37
5	Kansas City Chiefs	4	11	0	.267	6.5	273	388	-115	5.69	-1.69

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	4	0	.733	-	356	282	+74	10.26	+0.74
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	8	7	0	.533	3	336	335	+1	8.03	-0.03
3	Green Bay Packers	5	9	1	.367	5.5	255	300	-45	5.76	-0.26
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	11	0	.267	7	286	360	-74	5.72	-1.72
5	Detroit Lions	4	11	0	.267	7	269	384	-115	5.70	-1.70

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	11	4	.733	-	379	285	+94	9.98	+1.02
2	Dallas Cowboys	7	8	.467	4	340	348	-8	7.27	-0.27
3	St. Louis Cardinals	7	8	.467	4	362	368	-6	6.55	+0.45
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	8	.467	4	337	380	-43	6.60	+0.40
5	New York Giants	6	9	.400	5	280	312	-32	8.23	-2.23

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	2	.867	-	459	253	+206	9.61	+3.39
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	12	3	.800	1	422	283	+139	8.23	+3.77
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	9	.400	7	317	361	-44	7.18	-1.18
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	12	.200	10	205	436	-231	5.45	-2.45

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Oilers 23

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 3

Divisional Round

Cleveland Browns (1st) 38

Indianapolis Colts 21

Jan 9

Denver Broncos 34

Houston Oilers 10

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 38

Cleveland Browns (1st) 33

Jan 17

NFC

Wild Card Round

Minnesota Vikings 44

New Orleans Saints 10

Jan 3

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 36

San Francisco 49ers 24

Jan 9

Washington Redskins 21

Chicago Bears 17

Jan 10

Conference Championship

Washington Redskins 17

Minnesota Vikings 10

Jan 17

Super Bowl

Washington Redskins 42

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1711	13	9.61	+3.39	99.06%	2	7	8	10	11	12	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1631	10	9.16	+0.84	77.00%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1627	11	9.98	+1.02	80.37%	1	7	9	10	11	13	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1623	12	8.23	+3.77	99.20%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1617	11	10.26	+0.74	76.25%	3	7	9	10	11	13	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1597	10.5	9.01	+1.49	79.31%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1561	9	8.87	+0.13	63.59%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1558	8	8.08	-0.08	59.41%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1533	6	8.23	-2.23	18.64%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1523	8	8.18	-0.18	57.12%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1514	8	8.03	-0.03	60.76%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1513	9	6.83	+2.17	92.46%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1501	9	6.82	+2.18	92.54%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1490	8	7.40	+0.60	72.55%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1480	6	7.18	-1.18	36.51%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1477	5	7.37	-2.37	16.49%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1474	7	7.27	-0.27	55.87%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1474	7	6.60	+0.40	69.11%	0	3	5	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1455	7	6.55	+0.45	70.35%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1451	6	7.93	-1.93	23.09%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1448	7	5.63	+1.37	85.00%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1436	8	7.30	+0.70	74.41%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1429	4	5.69	-1.69	27.20%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1423	5.5	5.76	-0.26	46.10%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1420	4	7.16	-3.16	8.12%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1387	4	5.70	-1.70	26.72%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1333	4	5.72	-1.72	26.38%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1316	3	5.45	-2.45	14.32%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	-
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-1-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	-	-
Los Angeles Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	1-2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	-	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.43%	—	0.48%	1.67%	0.95%	1.19%	0.71%	6.43%
7–13	—	2.38%	5.00%	3.57%	1.67%	1.43%	0.24%	14.29%
14–20	0.48%	5.00%	8.10%	6.67%	4.05%	1.67%	0.48%	26.43%
21–27	1.67%	3.57%	6.67%	6.19%	4.76%	2.14%	0.71%	25.71%
28–34	0.95%	1.67%	4.05%	4.76%	4.76%	0.71%	0.24%	17.14%
35–41	1.19%	1.43%	1.67%	2.14%	0.71%	—	0.24%	7.38%
42+	0.71%	0.24%	0.48%	0.71%	0.24%	0.24%	—	2.62%
Total	6.43%	14.29%	26.43%	25.71%	17.14%	7.38%	2.62%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.60	21.60	+0.00
SD	10.19	10.19	15.29
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	51	51	+48
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 210

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	20.00%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	40.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
21–27	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	6.67%	—	—	26.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.67%	20.00%	13.33%	26.67%	26.67%	6.67%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.67	29.07	-15.40
SD	9.32	10.00	15.85
CV	0.68	0.34	—
Max	33	48	+11
Min	0	10	-38

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	13.33%
7–13	—	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	26.67%
14–20	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
21–27	13.33%	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	20.00%	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.00%	6.67%	26.67%	13.33%	26.67%	—	6.67%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	20.33	-2.33
SD	10.60	13.38	16.46
CV	0.59	0.66	—
Max	34	47	+27
Min	6	0	-41

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	13.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
21–27	—	13.33%	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	33.33%
35–41	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.00%	20.00%	13.33%	20.00%	20.00%	6.67%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.73	18.80	+4.93
SD	9.87	12.27	17.03
CV	0.42	0.65	—
Max	35	41	+32
Min	0	3	-41

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	13.33%	6.67%	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	46.67%
21–27	—	—	—	13.33%	—	13.33%	—	26.67%
28–34	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	20.00%	6.67%	40.00%	20.00%	13.33%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	24.67	-5.67
SD	7.79	9.69	10.59
CV	0.41	0.39	—
Max	30	41	+7
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
14–20	—	13.33%	—	—	—	—	—	13.33%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	33.33%
28–34	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	33.33%	20.00%	20.00%	6.67%	6.67%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	15.93	+10.07
SD	9.89	10.27	15.57
CV	0.38	0.64	—
Max	40	38	+35
Min	7	0	-14

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.67%	—	13.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	—	13.33%	13.33%	—	6.67%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	13.33%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	—	—	13.33%	—	—	—	13.33%
35–41	—	—	—	13.33%	—	—	6.67%	20.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.67%	26.67%	53.33%	—	6.67%	6.67%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.67	23.20	-0.53
SD	10.76	8.20	10.41
CV	0.47	0.35	—
Max	41	44	+19
Min	7	13	-17

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%
14–20	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
21–27	6.67%	—	13.33%	—	13.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	6.67%	—	20.00%	—	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	—	53.33%	6.67%	20.00%	6.67%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.27	19.20	+6.07
SD	8.01	10.77	15.72
CV	0.32	0.56	—
Max	40	40	+34
Min	10	0	-30

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	—	46.67%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	13.33%	26.67%	13.33%	33.33%	13.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	25.60	-7.67
SD	8.91	9.25	14.37
CV	0.50	0.36	—
Max	33	37	+17
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	20.00%	—	—	—	26.67%
14–20	—	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	26.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.67%	13.33%	33.33%	33.33%	13.33%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	20.00	-3.00
SD	7.97	8.16	10.10
CV	0.47	0.41	—
Max	34	33	+20
Min	0	3	-20

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	13.33%	—	6.67%	—	20.00%
14–20	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
21–27	6.67%	—	13.33%	—	—	—	6.67%	26.67%
28–34	—	—	6.67%	—	13.33%	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.67%	13.33%	26.67%	20.00%	20.00%	6.67%	6.67%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	23.27	-0.27
SD	10.29	12.67	16.45
CV	0.45	0.54	—
Max	40	51	+30
Min	7	3	-33

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	13.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
7–13	—	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
14–20	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
21–27	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
42+	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
Total	20.00%	13.33%	20.00%	46.67%	—	—	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	15.87	+4.13
SD	15.88	8.77	18.22
CV	0.79	0.55	—
Max	51	27	+41
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	13.33%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	46.67%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	20.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	13.33%	33.33%	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	20.00%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.20	25.87	-7.67
SD	10.21	10.84	16.08
CV	0.56	0.42	—
Max	41	43	+21
Min	0	10	-42

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	13.33%
14–20	6.67%	—	6.67%	20.00%	13.33%	—	—	46.67%
21–27	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	13.33%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	6.67%	26.67%	33.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.07	19.27	+0.80
SD	9.65	9.82	14.27
CV	0.48	0.51	—
Max	37	35	+23
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	13.33%
14–20	—	—	6.67%	13.33%	13.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
28–34	6.67%	—	—	13.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.33%	—	13.33%	33.33%	26.67%	6.67%	6.67%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.13	24.07	-2.93
SD	10.73	12.02	21.72
CV	0.51	0.50	—
Max	37	48	+33
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
21–27	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	26.67%
28–34	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
42+	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	6.67%	13.33%	13.33%	33.33%	20.00%	13.33%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.13	22.33	+1.80
SD	10.58	11.02	16.65
CV	0.44	0.49	—
Max	42	40	+42
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
21–27	—	6.67%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%
Total	—	6.67%	46.67%	26.67%	13.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.40	22.33	+0.07
SD	10.22	7.02	9.90
CV	0.46	0.31	—
Max	44	38	+15
Min	7	13	-20

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	26.67%
21–27	6.67%	13.33%	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	6.67%	26.67%	20.00%	20.00%	20.00%	—	6.67%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.33	19.53	+1.80
SD	8.61	11.89	13.14
CV	0.40	0.61	—
Max	42	43	+24
Min	10	0	-19

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	13.33%	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
21–27	—	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
28–34	—	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
Total	6.67%	13.33%	26.67%	46.67%	6.67%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.13	18.87	+9.27
SD	8.73	8.47	12.31
CV	0.31	0.45	—
Max	44	34	+38
Min	17	0	-10

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%
14–20	—	20.00%	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	53.33%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	26.67%
28–34	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.67%	26.67%	20.00%	20.00%	13.33%	13.33%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.67	20.80	-2.13
SD	6.28	11.79	12.81
CV	0.34	0.57	—
Max	30	41	+23
Min	3	6	-26

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	6.67%	20.00%	—	—	—	6.67%	33.33%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%	—	20.00%
28–34	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
42+	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	6.67%	6.67%	40.00%	6.67%	13.33%	20.00%	6.67%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.27	24.00	-1.73
SD	11.38	11.19	11.45
CV	0.51	0.47	—
Max	43	42	+19
Min	0	6	-22

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%
7–13	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
14–20	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	26.67%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	20.00%
28–34	—	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.67%	26.67%	26.67%	26.67%	13.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.47	25.33	-2.87
SD	10.28	8.67	13.48
CV	0.46	0.34	—
Max	38	41	+17
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
7–13	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	—	20.00%	6.67%	—	—	—	26.67%
21–27	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	26.67%
28–34	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	20.00%	46.67%	13.33%	13.33%	6.67%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	19.93	-0.93
SD	7.58	8.36	12.42
CV	0.40	0.42	—
Max	30	35	+16
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
7–13	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	13.33%	13.33%	—	13.33%	—	—	40.00%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	—	20.00%	33.33%	26.67%	20.00%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.87	21.13	-4.27
SD	10.47	7.46	13.23
CV	0.62	0.35	—
Max	42	34	+21
Min	0	9	-31

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
21–27	—	13.33%	13.33%	20.00%	—	—	—	46.67%
28–34	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
35–41	6.67%	6.67%	—	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
42+	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	13.33%	26.67%	13.33%	33.33%	13.33%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.60	16.87	+13.73
SD	8.60	9.83	16.08
CV	0.28	0.58	—
Max	48	30	+48
Min	17	0	-13

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.67%	20.00%	—	26.67%
21–27	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	6.67%	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	26.67%
35–41	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	—	13.33%
42+	—	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	6.67%	20.00%	33.33%	13.33%	6.67%	20.00%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.73	20.93	+3.80
SD	10.56	11.16	18.70
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	43	41	+31
Min	9	3	-23

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.67%	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	13.33%
21–27	—	6.67%	6.67%	13.33%	20.00%	—	—	46.67%
28–34	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.67%	20.00%	26.67%	46.67%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.13	24.53	-0.40
SD	6.99	6.51	11.15
CV	0.29	0.27	—
Max	34	34	+17
Min	7	13	-23

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	—	20.00%
7–13	—	—	13.33%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
14–20	—	6.67%	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	20.00%
21–27	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	13.33%
28–34	—	—	—	6.67%	6.67%	—	6.67%	20.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
Total	—	13.33%	26.67%	33.33%	13.33%	6.67%	6.67%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.07	24.00	-4.93
SD	12.72	9.10	16.07
CV	0.67	0.38	—
Max	48	44	+38
Min	3	10	-32

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
14–20	—	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	—	—	20.00%
21–27	—	6.67%	13.33%	13.33%	13.33%	—	—	46.67%
28–34	—	—	6.67%	13.33%	—	—	—	20.00%
35–41	—	6.67%	—	—	—	—	—	6.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	26.67%	26.67%	33.33%	13.33%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.27	19.00	+6.27
SD	6.71	7.20	8.82
CV	0.27	0.38	—
Max	38	31	+26
Min	13	7	-4

Games Played: 15

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.68	+0.4
Allowed	0.54	-0.4
Differential	0.82	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	12	8.23	+3.77
2	San Francisco 49ers	13	9.61	+3.39
3	Houston Oilers	9	6.82	+2.18
4	Indianapolis Colts	9	6.83	+2.17
5	Denver Broncos	10.5	9.01	+1.49

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cincinnati Bengals	4	7.16	-3.16
2	Atlanta Falcons	3	5.45	-2.45
3	Los Angeles Raiders	5	7.37	-2.37
4	New York Giants	6	8.23	-2.23
5	New York Jets	6	7.93	-1.93

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	8	Sep 20 – Nov 15	1 in 228
2	New Orleans Saints	9	Nov 1 – Dec 27	1 in 104
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	Sep 20 – Nov 8	1 in 41
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	Nov 15 – Dec 13	1 in 37
5	Denver Broncos	4	Nov 16 – Dec 6	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Raiders	7	Oct 12 – Nov 22	1 in 94
2	New York Giants	5	Sep 14 – Oct 18	1 in 88
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 20 – Nov 22	1 in 87
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	Nov 8 – Dec 27	1 in 57
5	San Diego Chargers	6	Nov 22 – Dec 27	1 in 44

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.59%	24.93%	13.70%	6.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	18.37%	27.76%	27.91%	25.96%
Cincinnati Bengals	14.76%	25.18%	29.14%	30.91%
Houston Oilers	12.28%	22.12%	29.24%	36.35%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	30.83%	25.60%	20.66%	14.83%	8.08%
New England Patriots	28.43%	25.11%	21.44%	15.97%	9.05%
New York Jets	25.61%	25.04%	21.96%	17.16%	10.23%
Indianapolis Colts	11.15%	16.13%	21.59%	27.39%	23.74%
Buffalo Bills	3.98%	8.11%	14.35%	24.66%	48.89%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	39.31%	26.97%	17.93%	10.91%	4.88%
Seattle Seahawks	33.81%	28.88%	19.73%	12.06%	5.53%
Los Angeles Raiders	13.04%	19.38%	24.62%	25.38%	17.58%
San Diego Chargers	10.93%	17.82%	24.37%	27.03%	19.85%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.91%	6.95%	13.37%	24.62%	52.16%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	73.35%	19.76%	5.06%	1.47%	0.36%
Minnesota Vikings	19.33%	44.19%	20.79%	10.57%	5.12%
Green Bay Packers	2.63%	12.14%	25.55%	29.89%	29.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.57%	11.96%	23.99%	29.85%	31.63%
Detroit Lions	2.12%	11.94%	24.62%	28.22%	33.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	59.04%	23.12%	10.76%	5.17%	1.92%
New York Giants	20.58%	30.22%	22.73%	16.35%	10.12%
Dallas Cowboys	9.35%	20.05%	25.30%	24.45%	20.85%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.86%	13.68%	21.10%	27.08%	32.29%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.18%	12.94%	20.11%	26.95%	34.82%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	62.75%	24.94%	9.99%	2.33%
New Orleans Saints	23.33%	38.70%	27.34%	10.63%
Los Angeles Rams	11.83%	27.79%	38.68%	21.70%
Atlanta Falcons	2.09%	8.57%	24.00%	65.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.14%	16.36%	13.76%	10.12%	8.67%	7.65%	5.69%	5.00%	4.28%	3.18%	2.64%	1.96%	1.09%	0.45%
Denver Broncos	17.98%	14.15%	11.73%	10.52%	8.78%	7.52%	6.66%	5.59%	4.74%	3.91%	3.26%	2.31%	1.77%	1.09%
Seattle Seahawks	15.96%	12.70%	11.22%	10.70%	9.11%	7.89%	7.21%	6.04%	5.20%	4.41%	3.50%	2.76%	2.07%	1.23%
Miami Dolphins	8.96%	9.99%	9.99%	9.23%	9.10%	8.51%	7.75%	7.45%	6.77%	5.92%	5.43%	4.42%	3.61%	2.87%
New England Patriots	8.51%	9.28%	9.48%	8.91%	8.61%	8.48%	7.84%	7.58%	7.03%	6.35%	5.93%	4.94%	4.04%	3.01%
New York Jets	6.97%	8.21%	8.95%	8.64%	8.77%	8.69%	8.07%	7.93%	7.38%	6.65%	6.22%	5.39%	4.53%	3.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.50%	5.66%	6.55%	7.16%	7.93%	8.42%	8.25%	8.50%	8.88%	8.01%	8.06%	8.23%	6.05%	3.80%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.52%	5.10%	5.67%	6.73%	7.46%	7.61%	8.19%	8.43%	8.49%	8.53%	8.57%	7.64%	7.00%	6.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.35%	4.68%	5.43%	6.50%	7.19%	7.88%	8.23%	8.52%	9.03%	9.06%	8.84%	9.28%	7.13%	4.86%
San Diego Chargers	4.01%	4.64%	5.29%	6.57%	6.80%	7.19%	8.47%	8.27%	8.29%	9.14%	8.58%	8.09%	7.90%	6.73%
Houston Oilers	2.47%	3.52%	4.44%	5.27%	6.33%	7.00%	7.64%	8.35%	9.23%	9.23%	9.78%	11.11%	9.10%	6.53%
Indianapolis Colts	2.35%	3.59%	4.40%	5.27%	5.72%	6.45%	7.23%	7.77%	8.20%	9.35%	9.52%	9.75%	10.33%	10.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.67%	1.03%	1.54%	2.18%	2.80%	3.33%	4.46%	5.25%	6.15%	8.38%	9.77%	12.10%	18.08%	24.26%
Buffalo Bills	0.60%	1.07%	1.55%	2.20%	2.72%	3.40%	4.28%	5.32%	6.32%	7.90%	9.90%	12.00%	17.30%	25.45%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Chicago Bears	30.30%	22.62%	16.65%	9.82%	6.97%	5.08%	3.00%	2.10%	1.43%	0.86%	0.58%	0.33%	0.18%	0.07%
Washington Redskins	24.80%	20.99%	15.58%	10.89%	7.96%	5.76%	4.64%	3.17%	2.22%	1.73%	1.00%	0.68%	0.43%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers	19.63%	19.12%	17.90%	11.81%	9.21%	7.26%	4.85%	3.76%	2.62%	1.64%	1.10%	0.66%	0.34%	0.11%
New Orleans Saints	5.46%	7.98%	10.32%	11.50%	11.96%	11.18%	9.64%	8.90%	7.17%	5.44%	4.21%	3.28%	2.08%	0.88%
New York Giants	7.18%	8.24%	9.17%	11.69%	10.40%	9.84%	9.50%	7.78%	6.80%	6.20%	4.88%	3.73%	2.94%	1.66%
Minnesota Vikings	5.11%	6.71%	8.64%	10.88%	12.43%	12.40%	9.44%	8.44%	7.27%	5.53%	4.75%	3.71%	2.64%	2.06%
Los Angeles Rams	1.89%	3.62%	5.45%	7.32%	8.86%	9.39%	9.94%	10.91%	10.45%	8.96%	7.93%	6.97%	5.34%	2.98%
Dallas Cowboys	2.10%	3.81%	5.27%	7.61%	8.15%	8.75%	10.00%	9.33%	9.13%	9.28%	8.08%	7.22%	6.93%	4.34%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.26%	2.28%	3.21%	5.00%	5.76%	6.63%	8.49%	8.41%	9.21%	10.27%	10.04%	10.15%	10.50%	8.78%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.13%	2.01%	2.98%	4.90%	5.50%	6.44%	8.37%	8.14%	8.99%	10.59%	10.05%	10.15%	11.37%	9.38%
Green Bay Packers	0.33%	0.78%	1.34%	2.31%	3.37%	4.73%	5.85%	7.53%	9.25%	9.88%	11.79%	12.71%	13.11%	17.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.34%	0.73%	1.31%	2.38%	3.46%	4.46%	5.70%	7.43%	8.71%	9.89%	11.52%	12.10%	13.48%	18.50%
Detroit Lions	0.26%	0.64%	1.20%	2.15%	3.39%	4.50%	5.63%	7.56%	8.79%	9.65%	11.28%	12.29%	13.75%	18.91%
Atlanta Falcons	0.19%	0.48%	0.98%	1.76%	2.56%	3.57%	4.96%	6.55%	7.98%	10.09%	12.79%	16.02%	16.89%	15.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Chicago Bears	20.86%	13.66%	12.16%	9.10%	8.09%	6.63%	4.96%	4.35%	3.44%	3.09%	2.53%	2.32%	1.60%	1.39%	1.11%	1.10%	0.79%	0.66%	0.46%	0.48%	0.30%	0.30%	0.19%	0.17%	0.11%	0.08%	0.04%	0.03%
Washington Redskins	16.44%	12.52%	10.98%	8.99%	7.62%	6.54%	5.36%	4.72%	4.06%	3.67%	2.89%	2.58%	2.33%	2.14%	1.60%	1.41%	1.16%	1.06%	0.91%	0.72%	0.60%	0.49%	0.36%	0.28%	0.24%	0.18%	0.10%	0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	12.59%	10.22%	10.18%	8.50%	8.22%	7.54%	5.72%	5.47%	4.35%	4.49%	3.42%	3.49%	2.23%	2.53%	1.97%	2.03%	1.36%	1.29%	0.87%	0.92%	0.64%	0.60%	0.44%	0.33%	0.21%	0.20%	0.10%	0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.01%	9.28%	7.85%	8.34%	6.85%	7.10%	5.72%	5.50%	4.68%	4.48%	4.28%	3.69%	3.27%	2.79%	2.79%	2.35%	2.37%	1.86%	1.78%	1.40%	1.42%	1.11%	0.95%	0.75%	0.58%	0.43%	0.26%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	7.28%	8.44%	7.22%	7.47%	6.34%	6.21%	5.56%	5.62%	4.75%	4.51%	4.12%	3.80%	3.72%	3.33%	2.96%	2.61%	2.59%	2.23%	2.16%	1.65%	1.61%	1.36%	1.30%	0.87%	0.87%	0.63%	0.50%	0.28%
Seattle Seahawks	6.47%	7.48%	6.56%	6.73%	6.19%	5.86%	5.91%	5.34%	5.12%	4.50%	4.38%	3.83%	4.20%	3.48%	3.21%	2.69%	2.82%	2.42%	2.46%	1.87%	1.77%	1.52%	1.44%	1.12%	1.02%	0.70%	0.60%	0.30%
New Orleans Saints	3.11%	3.46%	4.48%	4.29%	5.31%	4.98%	5.49%	5.24%	5.72%	5.28%	5.29%	5.06%	4.58%	4.60%	4.23%	4.45%	3.54%	3.43%	2.78%	3.02%	2.35%	2.13%	1.84%	1.75%	1.24%	1.16%	0.73%	0.46%
New York Giants	4.06%	3.84%	4.54%	4.23%	5.11%	4.69%	5.50%	5.09%	5.21%	4.88%	4.69%	4.71%	4.55%	4.43%	3.85%	3.82%	3.35%	3.49%	3.04%	3.00%	2.51%	2.66%	2.02%	1.90%	1.59%	1.46%	1.05%	0.74%
Miami Dolphins	3.18%	4.51%	4.53%	5.23%	4.81%	5.39%	4.94%	4.95%	4.85%	4.74%	4.61%	4.29%	4.26%	4.04%	4.00%	3.57%	3.72%	3.38%	3.18%	2.75%	2.76%	2.50%	2.26%	2.03%	1.87%	1.47%	1.34%	0.82%
New England Patriots	2.91%	4.20%	4.30%	4.95%	4.83%	4.88%	4.80%	4.66%	4.71%	4.38%	4.81%	4.28%	4.39%	3.93%	4.07%	3.51%	3.96%	3.46%	3.51%	2.95%	3.02%	2.71%	2.59%	2.21%	2.02%	1.62%	1.44%	0.88%
Minnesota Vikings	2.86%	3.00%	3.63%	3.74%	4.47%	4.52%	4.92%	5.28%	5.38%	5.90%	5.15%	6.09%	4.26%	4.91%	4.01%	4.50%	3.39%	3.65%	2.91%	3.19%	2.53%	2.57%	2.02%	2.00%	1.63%	1.39%	1.26%	0.87%
New York Jets	2.33%	3.54%	3.71%	4.51%	4.21%	4.81%	4.61%	4.66%	4.62%	4.55%	4.61%	4.50%	4.42%	4.12%	4.21%	3.77%	4.09%	3.69%	3.60%	3.06%	3.28%	2.90%	2.90%	2.36%	2.33%	1.87%	1.67%	1.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.48%	2.17%	2.57%	2.98%	3.09%	3.59%	3.70%	3.81%	4.13%	4.02%	4.43%	4.37%	4.33%	4.19%	4.66%	4.18%	4.61%	4.32%	4.22%	4.03%	4.36%	3.73%	3.80%	3.60%	3.04%	2.87%	2.15%	1.58%
Los Angeles Raiders	1.41%	2.13%	2.38%	2.81%	2.86%	3.14%	3.45%	3.60%	3.98%	3.91%	4.03%	4.06%	4.42%	4.30%	4.50%	4.14%	4.44%	4.44%	4.62%	3.97%	4.31%	4.09%	4.03%	3.46%	3.58%	2.97%	2.97%	2.00%
Los Angeles Rams	0.91%	1.26%	1.87%	2.06%	2.71%	2.86%	3.45%	3.53%	4.01%	4.27%	4.22%	4.54%	4.36%	4.94%	4.90%	5.62%	4.54%	4.96%	4.23%	5.10%	3.92%	4.18%	3.62%	4.02%	2.86%	3.12%	2.25%	1.71%
Dallas Cowboys	0.99%	1.44%	2.05%	2.17%	2.83%	2.79%	3.50%	3.65%	3.94%	4.02%	4.18%	4.28%	4.52%	4.78%	4.33%	4.84%	4.47%	4.54%	4.37%	4.58%	4.05%	4.26%	3.78%	3.78%	3.64%	3.44%	2.64%	2.17%
San Diego Chargers	1.16%	2.00%	2.00%	2.53%	2.82%	3.00%	3.29%	3.62%	3.51%	3.82%	3.81%	3.84%	4.70%	4.24%	4.50%	3.91%	4.60%	4.47%	4.90%	4.14%	4.43%	4.11%	4.15%	3.70%	3.93%	3.27%	3.23%	2.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.00%	1.64%	2.02%	2.39%	2.70%	2.88%	3.29%	3.48%	3.80%	3.71%	4.27%	4.06%	4.32%	4.04%	4.69%	4.30%	4.78%	4.47%	4.66%	4.42%	4.66%	4.25%	4.44%	4.08%	3.65%	3.27%	2.62%	2.10%
Houston Oilers	0.67%	1.26%	1.45%	1.85%	2.02%	2.38%	2.68%	2.88%	3.09%	3.38%	3.75%	3.66%	4.01%	3.95%	4.42%	4.28%	4.85%	4.54%	4.81%	4.70%	5.08%	4.77%	5.09%	5.13%	4.55%	4.29%	3.49%	2.97%
Indianapolis Colts	0.57%	1.22%	1.33%	1.96%	2.04%	2.44%	2.55%	2.92%	2.99%	3.07%	3.42%	3.54%	3.97%	3.70%	4.26%	3.93%	4.77%	4.30%	5.06%	4.25%	5.12%	4.67%	5.14%	4.65%	5.13%	4.49%	4.88%	3.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.56%	0.78%	1.19%	1.25%	1.66%	1.72%	2.47%	2.38%	2.74%	2.96%	3.11%	3.34%	3.75%	4.16%	3.87%	4.35%	4.34%	4.57%	4.57%	5.21%	4.64%	5.41%	5.04%	5.46%	5.04%	5.55%	4.91%	4.96%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.48%	0.71%	0.99%	1.13%	1.58%	1.62%	2.21%	2.40%	2.65%	2.89%	2.96%	3.27%	3.77%	4.05%	3.83%	4.28%	4.33%	4.56%	4.77%	5.20%	4.92%	5.28%	5.20%	5.37%	5.64%	5.66%	5.19%	5.09%
Green Bay Packers	0.14%	0.22%	0.38%	0.48%	0.62%	0.74%	1.09%	1.18%	1.50%	1.75%	2.02%	2.29%	2.52%	2.99%	3.17%	3.92%	3.70%	4.47%	4.37%	5.36%	5.26%	6.04%	6.05%	6.75%	6.98%	7.50%	8.22%	10.30%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.13%	0.20%	0.35%	0.48%	0.57%	0.74%	1.04%	1.23%	1.46%	1.77%	1.91%	2.32%	2.36%	2.92%	3.21%	3.71%	3.53%	4.37%	4.38%	5.37%	5.32%	5.94%	5.79%	6.67%	6.80%	7.56%	8.78%	11.11%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.17%	0.32%	0.44%	0.57%	0.69%	0.94%	1.22%	1.44%	1.69%	1.92%	2.30%	2.26%	3.00%	3.11%	3.88%	3.54%	4.45%	4.21%	5.20%	5.21%	5.75%	6.02%	6.68%	6.98%	7.54%	9.09%	11.26%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.11%	0.31%	0.37%	0.56%	0.69%	0.84%	1.04%	1.15%	1.41%	1.48%	1.84%	1.86%	2.46%	2.31%	2.79%	2.77%	3.54%	3.56%	4.54%	4.08%	5.22%	5.30%	6.41%	6.37%	8.59%	8.73%	10.59%	11.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.12%	0.27%	0.38%	0.55%	0.68%	0.86%	1.03%	1.17%	1.32%	1.50%	1.81%	1.86%	2.28%	2.27%	2.95%	2.78%	3.50%	3.45%	4.33%	4.05%	5.24%	5.14%	6.43%	6.26%	8.25%	8.95%	11.01%	11.58%
Atlanta Falcons	0.07%	0.13%	0.21%	0.28%	0.50%	0.53%	0.78%	0.89%	1.15%	1.29%	1.57%	1.77%	2.13%	2.48%	2.79%	3.33%	3.32%	3.92%	4.31%	5.31%	5.46%	6.23%	6.69%	8.25%	7.62%	9.62%	8.87%	10.50%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.14%	17.60%	17.84%	7.23%	7.43%	30.75%
Denver Broncos	17.98%	12.93%	8.40%	13.44%	9.87%	37.38%
Seattle Seahawks	15.96%	11.05%	6.80%	14.89%	10.25%	41.05%
Miami Dolphins	8.96%	10.62%	11.24%	7.99%	8.64%	52.55%
New England Patriots	8.51%	9.82%	10.10%	8.05%	8.40%	55.12%
New York Jets	6.97%	8.71%	9.93%	7.58%	8.44%	58.36%
Los Angeles Raiders	4.52%	4.63%	3.89%	7.76%	8.00%	71.19%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.50%	5.97%	7.90%	6.41%	7.58%	67.63%
San Diego Chargers	4.01%	3.88%	3.03%	8.08%	7.55%	73.45%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.35%	4.87%	6.54%	5.85%	6.93%	72.45%
Houston Oilers	2.47%	3.86%	5.94%	4.32%	5.90%	77.50%
Indianapolis Colts	2.35%	3.80%	5.00%	4.49%	5.63%	78.73%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.67%	1.02%	1.23%	2.24%	2.82%	92.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.60%	1.24%	2.15%	1.66%	2.54%	91.81%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	30.30%	23.42%	19.63%	7.55%	6.01%	13.08%
Washington Redskins	24.80%	20.78%	13.45%	12.52%	8.40%	20.04%
San Francisco 49ers	19.63%	20.27%	22.84%	7.91%	7.87%	21.47%
New York Giants	7.18%	7.45%	5.94%	14.45%	11.21%	53.76%
New Orleans Saints	5.46%	7.70%	10.17%	12.09%	12.03%	52.56%
Minnesota Vikings	5.11%	6.31%	7.91%	11.78%	12.83%	56.06%
Dallas Cowboys	2.10%	3.62%	3.62%	8.48%	8.64%	73.53%
Los Angeles Rams	1.89%	3.67%	6.27%	6.82%	8.61%	72.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.26%	2.20%	2.40%	5.33%	6.00%	82.81%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.13%	1.91%	2.14%	5.22%	5.76%	83.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.34%	0.73%	1.50%	2.14%	3.45%	91.83%
Green Bay Packers	0.33%	0.78%	1.52%	2.16%	3.32%	91.89%
Detroit Lions	0.26%	0.62%	1.24%	2.08%	3.40%	92.40%
Atlanta Falcons	0.19%	0.54%	1.36%	1.47%	2.46%	93.97%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+9.05%

Clear Edge

54.29%0.48%45.24%

Elo Value

Home Edge

22 Elo

0.045 points per Elo point

031.5260

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.01 points

Lean Home

-8+1.43+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.6

Wide Open

124812

Champion Preseason Odds

12%

Washington Redskins, 4th of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

17.6%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.49 · As Expected: 1.49 to 2.05 · Elevated: 2.05 to 2.79 · High Variance: 2.79 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.9 · Close: 4.9 to 6.62 · Off Target: 6.62 to 8.64 · Well Off Target: 8.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.83 · As Expected: 2.83 to 4.72 · More Than Expected: 4.72 to 7.55 · Far More Than Expected: 7.55 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.72 wins

As Expected

01.865

Average Finish Error

Expected

4.04

Pinpoint

05.7615

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.20%

New Orleans Saints

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

8.12%

Cincinnati Bengals

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 10

As Expected

03.810

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.71

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

66%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

No Contest

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.23

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.87

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.40

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

40%

Upset-Prone

0%38%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

35%

Shaky Favorites

0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

1.00

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.96

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.032

Well Within Noise

00.0950.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	74.38%	74.38%	51.46%	33.82%	23.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	64.20%	64.20%	41.23%	26.15%	12.77%
Chicago Bears	81.45%	81.45%	43.61%	21.70%	12.46%
Washington Redskins	72.19%	72.19%	38.49%	19.68%	11.63%
Denver Broncos	54.00%	54.00%	32.20%	18.32%	8.18%
New Orleans Saints	38.77%	38.77%	21.54%	10.27%	6.00%
Seattle Seahawks	48.39%	48.39%	26.45%	13.48%	5.38%
New England Patriots	37.48%	37.48%	19.27%	9.69%	3.92%
Miami Dolphins	39.32%	39.32%	18.36%	8.36%	2.99%
New York Giants	33.32%	33.32%	12.98%	4.73%	2.24%
Minnesota Vikings	30.57%	30.57%	11.15%	3.79%	1.76%
Pittsburgh Steelers	24.76%	24.76%	10.88%	4.43%	1.42%
Houston Oilers	17.14%	17.14%	7.80%	3.42%	1.18%
New York Jets	31.95%	31.95%	11.65%	4.15%	1.13%
Indianapolis Colts	16.01%	16.01%	7.03%	3.05%	1.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	20.04%	20.04%	8.43%	3.31%	1.00%
Los Angeles Rams	18.36%	18.36%	6.59%	2.07%	0.85%
Dallas Cowboys	17.12%	16.24%	5.04%	1.51%	0.61%
San Diego Chargers	16.86%	16.86%	6.17%	2.10%	0.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	19.38%	19.38%	6.82%	2.25%	0.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.33%	10.42%	3.23%	0.98%	0.42%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.98%	9.28%	2.67%	0.76%	0.29%
Buffalo Bills	5.62%	5.62%	2.01%	0.72%	0.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.06%	4.85%	1.70%	0.56%	0.15%
Green Bay Packers	5.48%	4.44%	1.14%	0.27%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	5.48%	3.62%	0.83%	0.18%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.60%	3.93%	0.72%	0.14%	0.04%
Atlanta Falcons	3.94%	3.04%	0.55%	0.08%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		53.5%0.28%	28.0%0.38%	30.3%0.66%	38.9%0.22%	36.9%0.10%	49.1%0.16%	43.1%0.44%	31.8%0.15%	44.2%0.16%	43.3%0.16%	44.7%0.33%	51.5%0.44%	31.7%0.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	46.5%0.28%		22.3%0.41%	27.3%2.00%	39.4%0.35%	39.6%0.68%	47.6%0.37%	41.6%1.29%	34.7%1.18%	31.9%1.16%	45.7%1.19%	38.9%0.48%	47.2%1.23%	29.6%2.14%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	72.0%0.38%	77.7%0.41%		52.8%2.35%	66.5%0.34%	68.9%0.82%	75.8%0.52%	71.8%1.49%	65.0%1.40%	61.3%1.34%	72.7%1.32%	70.5%0.44%	76.0%1.42%	59.5%2.44%
Denver Broncos	69.7%0.66%	72.7%2.00%	47.2%2.35%		63.6%1.65%	62.6%1.64%	71.4%0.42%	67.9%1.34%	59.6%2.63%	56.6%2.77%	71.3%2.58%	65.2%2.17%	72.2%1.52%	56.7%1.58%
Houston Oilers	61.1%0.22%	60.6%0.35%	33.5%0.34%	36.4%1.65%		45.3%0.56%	60.6%0.32%	54.9%1.03%	46.6%0.97%	43.4%0.93%	56.8%0.91%	51.2%0.36%	61.0%0.89%	40.7%1.71%
Indianapolis Colts	63.1%0.10%	60.4%0.68%	31.1%0.82%	37.4%1.64%	54.7%0.56%		58.0%0.37%	55.5%1.03%	46.5%0.49%	42.5%0.46%	60.3%0.43%	51.2%0.76%	59.7%0.96%	42.7%1.82%
Kansas City Chiefs	50.9%0.16%	52.4%0.37%	24.2%0.52%	28.6%0.42%	39.4%0.32%	42.0%0.37%		40.1%0.22%	37.2%0.58%	32.6%0.51%	45.7%0.54%	42.0%0.44%	47.7%0.22%	31.9%0.40%
Los Angeles Raiders	56.9%0.44%	58.4%1.29%	28.2%1.49%	32.1%1.34%	45.1%1.03%	44.5%1.03%	59.9%0.22%		43.7%1.77%	39.3%1.79%	54.5%1.64%	46.7%1.39%	58.3%0.88%	38.5%1.45%
Miami Dolphins	68.2%0.15%	65.3%1.18%	35.0%1.40%	40.4%2.63%	53.4%0.97%	53.5%0.49%	62.8%0.58%	56.3%1.77%		45.1%0.71%	61.4%0.71%	57.5%1.34%	62.5%1.74%	44.2%2.95%
New England Patriots	55.8%0.16%	68.1%1.16%	38.7%1.34%	43.4%2.77%	56.6%0.93%	57.5%0.46%	67.4%0.51%	60.7%1.79%	54.9%0.71%		67.5%0.71%	59.3%1.31%	67.6%1.71%	49.1%2.90%
New York Jets	56.7%0.16%	54.3%1.19%	27.3%1.32%	28.7%2.58%	43.2%0.91%	39.7%0.43%	54.3%0.54%	45.5%1.64%	38.6%0.71%	32.5%0.71%		42.9%1.30%	52.0%1.67%	33.7%2.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.3%0.33%	61.1%0.48%	29.5%0.44%	34.8%2.17%	48.8%0.36%	48.8%0.76%	58.0%0.44%	53.3%1.39%	42.5%1.34%	40.7%1.31%	57.1%1.30%		58.1%1.23%	37.8%2.44%
San Diego Chargers	48.5%0.44%	52.8%1.23%	24.0%1.42%	27.8%1.52%	39.0%0.89%	40.3%0.96%	52.3%0.22%	41.7%0.88%	37.5%1.74%	32.4%1.71%	48.0%1.67%	41.9%1.23%		33.3%1.72%
Seattle Seahawks	68.3%0.73%	70.4%2.14%	40.5%2.44%	43.3%1.58%	59.3%1.71%	57.3%1.82%	68.1%0.40%	61.5%1.45%	55.8%2.95%	50.9%2.90%	66.3%2.85%	62.2%2.44%	66.7%1.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		13.5%0.28%	30.3%0.41%	45.4%0.11%	40.2%0.12%	24.6%0.12%	27.0%0.54%	18.6%0.27%	24.2%0.67%	22.9%0.27%	8.5%0.18%	32.1%0.28%	46.9%0.13%	12.9%0.57%
Chicago Bears	86.5%0.28%		70.3%1.48%	81.6%0.15%	76.4%0.16%	68.0%1.09%	67.2%0.19%	50.8%2.01%	61.3%2.57%	72.0%1.05%	37.8%1.33%	70.6%0.98%	81.9%0.16%	48.2%2.12%
Dallas Cowboys	69.7%0.41%	29.7%1.48%		62.1%0.55%	58.9%0.67%	49.2%1.75%	43.4%2.78%	28.4%2.91%	41.1%1.69%	50.5%0.58%	20.8%1.86%	54.9%0.61%	72.8%0.66%	29.9%1.16%
Detroit Lions	54.6%0.11%	18.4%0.15%	37.9%0.55%		34.0%0.05%	37.6%0.42%	32.9%0.31%	19.4%0.78%	25.8%0.96%	34.8%0.40%	14.3%0.52%	40.8%0.38%	53.2%0.06%	17.2%0.81%
Green Bay Packers	59.8%0.12%	23.6%0.16%	41.1%0.67%	66.0%0.05%		41.8%0.45%	37.3%0.31%	23.6%0.74%	33.0%0.91%	41.5%0.38%	15.8%0.45%	47.1%0.40%	61.5%0.08%	19.9%0.76%
Los Angeles Rams	75.4%0.12%	32.0%1.09%	50.8%1.75%	62.4%0.42%	58.2%0.45%		43.9%2.14%	28.4%1.14%	40.7%2.75%	51.7%1.18%	22.4%0.54%	54.2%1.05%	72.0%0.43%	28.6%2.36%
Minnesota Vikings	73.0%0.54%	32.8%0.19%	56.6%2.78%	67.1%0.31%	62.7%0.31%	56.1%2.14%		35.2%3.65%	46.7%4.40%	54.8%1.85%	25.3%2.38%	60.6%1.94%	72.0%0.30%	33.1%3.84%
New Orleans Saints	81.4%0.27%	49.2%2.01%	71.6%2.91%	80.6%0.78%	76.4%0.74%	71.6%1.14%	64.8%3.65%		62.8%4.38%	71.1%1.85%	35.9%0.45%	71.6%1.75%	84.2%0.68%	49.1%3.50%
New York Giants	75.8%0.67%	38.7%2.57%	58.9%1.69%	74.2%0.96%	67.0%0.91%	59.3%2.75%	53.3%4.40%	37.2%4.38%		60.8%0.98%	26.6%3.02%	62.9%1.05%	75.3%1.08%	36.8%1.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	77.1%0.27%	28.0%1.05%	49.5%0.58%	65.2%0.40%	58.5%0.38%	48.3%1.18%	45.2%1.85%	28.9%1.85%	39.2%0.98%		19.5%1.18%	54.5%0.38%	66.0%0.44%	29.7%0.78%
San Francisco 49ers	91.5%0.18%	62.2%1.33%	79.2%1.86%	85.7%0.52%	84.2%0.45%	77.6%0.54%	74.7%2.38%	64.1%0.45%	73.4%3.02%	80.5%1.18%		81.1%1.09%	88.5%0.46%	60.1%2.32%
St. Louis Cardinals	67.9%0.28%	29.4%0.98%	45.1%0.61%	59.2%0.38%	52.9%0.40%	45.8%1.05%	39.4%1.94%	28.4%1.75%	37.1%1.05%	45.5%0.38%	18.9%1.09%		67.2%0.33%	24.8%0.73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	53.1%0.13%	18.1%0.16%	27.2%0.66%	46.8%0.06%	38.5%0.08%	28.0%0.43%	28.0%0.30%	15.8%0.68%	24.7%1.08%	34.0%0.44%	11.5%0.46%	32.8%0.33%		16.5%0.79%
Washington Redskins	87.1%0.57%	51.8%2.12%	70.1%1.16%	82.8%0.81%	80.1%0.76%	71.4%2.36%	66.9%3.84%	50.9%3.50%	63.2%1.19%	70.3%0.78%	39.9%2.32%	75.2%0.73%	83.5%0.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		51.0%0.39%	24.9%1.25%	27.9%1.14%	45.3%0.27%		51.6%0.09%	43.2%0.43%				43.5%0.51%	56.1%0.38%	33.4%1.16%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.0%0.39%			26.5%3.93%		37.2%1.06%	51.9%0.35%	39.1%1.55%	34.7%2.55%	31.7%2.62%	45.4%2.10%		49.4%1.27%	31.2%3.57%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	75.1%1.25%			54.3%13.05%		66.9%3.50%	77.7%1.31%	71.6%4.98%	65.6%8.55%	60.9%7.94%	73.9%7.07%		76.4%4.33%	59.7%12.23%
Denver Broncos	72.1%1.14%	73.5%3.93%	45.7%13.05%		63.7%3.54%	64.2%3.59%			60.3%8.59%	56.0%7.91%	70.1%6.94%	65.7%5.30%
Houston Oilers	54.7%0.27%			36.3%3.54%		48.0%0.87%	57.5%0.31%	53.7%1.31%	45.8%2.50%	41.3%2.12%	57.7%1.97%		57.7%1.01%	40.9%3.23%
Indianapolis Colts		62.8%1.06%	33.1%3.50%	35.8%3.59%	52.0%0.87%		59.5%0.30%	56.7%1.27%				51.3%1.33%	61.6%0.86%	42.2%3.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	48.4%0.09%	48.1%0.35%	22.3%1.31%		42.5%0.31%	40.5%0.30%			35.8%0.70%	30.4%0.80%	46.1%0.59%	44.9%0.40%
Los Angeles Raiders	56.8%0.43%	60.9%1.55%	28.4%4.98%		46.3%1.31%	43.3%1.27%			41.9%3.16%	36.5%2.87%	53.0%2.51%	49.6%1.97%
Miami Dolphins		65.3%2.55%	34.4%8.55%	39.7%8.59%	54.2%2.50%		64.2%0.70%	58.1%3.16%				54.2%3.17%	63.6%2.76%	43.9%7.34%
New England Patriots		68.3%2.62%	39.1%7.94%	44.0%7.91%	58.7%2.12%		69.6%0.80%	63.5%2.87%				60.4%3.31%	65.8%2.58%	48.8%7.31%
New York Jets		54.6%2.10%	26.1%7.07%	29.9%6.94%	42.3%1.97%		53.9%0.59%	47.0%2.51%				43.4%2.78%	50.9%2.20%	33.3%5.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.5%0.51%			34.3%5.30%		48.7%1.33%	55.1%0.40%	50.4%1.97%	45.8%3.17%	39.6%3.31%	56.6%2.78%		58.2%1.47%	38.3%4.52%
San Diego Chargers	43.9%0.38%	50.6%1.27%	23.6%4.33%		42.3%1.01%	38.4%0.86%			36.4%2.76%	34.2%2.58%	49.1%2.20%	41.8%1.47%
Seattle Seahawks	66.6%1.16%	68.8%3.57%	40.3%12.23%		59.1%3.23%	57.8%3.23%			56.1%7.34%	51.2%7.31%	66.7%5.81%	61.7%4.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		12.9%0.97%	28.0%0.16%	42.3%0.03%	50.0%0.04%		25.7%0.25%		19.0%0.40%	24.6%0.13%		30.8%0.09%	35.3%0.03%	14.4%0.92%
Chicago Bears	87.1%0.97%		70.0%5.69%			69.9%6.04%		49.9%12.24%	63.4%11.18%	69.8%3.60%	37.4%19.46%	73.2%3.36%		48.2%18.90%
Dallas Cowboys	72.0%0.16%	30.0%5.69%		59.9%0.16%	55.2%0.21%	50.3%0.95%	45.5%1.53%	28.8%2.17%			20.7%5.17%		72.0%0.19%
Detroit Lions	57.7%0.03%		40.1%0.16%			35.4%0.19%		23.5%0.43%	30.6%0.43%	41.5%0.12%	13.8%1.08%	51.6%0.09%		18.5%1.10%
Green Bay Packers	50.0%0.04%		44.8%0.21%			43.8%0.25%		27.8%0.50%	34.3%0.46%	37.0%0.13%	15.2%1.27%	46.7%0.14%		21.3%1.44%
Los Angeles Rams		30.1%6.04%	49.7%0.95%	64.6%0.19%	56.2%0.25%		44.7%1.57%		41.9%2.24%	53.1%0.62%		52.4%0.59%	64.7%0.20%	28.6%5.69%
Minnesota Vikings	74.3%0.25%		54.5%1.53%			55.3%1.57%		35.0%3.81%	46.6%3.74%	56.2%1.05%	23.1%8.62%	57.5%0.99%		33.6%8.99%
New Orleans Saints		50.1%12.24%	71.2%2.17%	76.5%0.43%	72.2%0.50%		65.0%3.81%		61.9%4.32%	68.7%1.25%		73.3%1.13%	82.7%0.47%	47.7%12.45%
New York Giants	81.0%0.40%	36.6%11.18%		69.4%0.43%	65.7%0.46%	58.1%2.24%	53.4%3.74%	38.1%4.32%			26.5%10.10%		77.3%0.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	75.4%0.13%	30.2%3.60%		58.5%0.12%	63.0%0.13%	46.9%0.62%	43.8%1.05%	31.3%1.25%			19.5%3.37%		66.4%0.14%
San Francisco 49ers		62.6%19.46%	79.3%5.17%	86.2%1.08%	84.8%1.27%		76.9%8.62%		73.5%10.10%	80.5%3.37%		81.1%2.81%	89.4%1.08%	61.4%21.42%
St. Louis Cardinals	69.2%0.09%	26.8%3.36%		48.4%0.09%	53.3%0.14%	47.6%0.59%	42.5%0.99%	26.7%1.13%			18.9%2.81%		63.4%0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	64.7%0.03%		28.0%0.19%			35.3%0.20%		17.3%0.47%	22.7%0.44%	33.6%0.14%	10.6%1.08%	36.6%0.08%		15.4%1.28%
Washington Redskins	85.6%0.92%	51.8%18.90%		81.5%1.10%	78.7%1.44%	71.4%5.69%	66.4%8.99%	52.3%12.45%			38.6%21.42%		84.6%1.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		51.8%0.08%	25.0%0.50%	30.0%0.32%	39.8%0.10%	35.9%0.04%	61.1%0.02%	38.8%0.08%	35.8%0.16%	39.3%0.15%	48.4%0.09%	45.4%0.13%	49.2%0.06%	41.7%0.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	48.2%0.08%		27.0%1.42%	25.8%1.25%	37.0%0.18%	39.8%0.27%	50.8%0.06%	38.4%0.28%	40.0%0.70%	31.9%0.79%	46.5%0.40%	37.7%0.27%	51.3%0.19%	29.9%0.92%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	75.0%0.50%	73.0%1.42%		55.0%8.87%	66.4%1.72%	67.2%1.84%	78.4%0.41%	71.3%1.98%	64.4%5.09%	60.0%5.19%	73.6%3.12%	69.6%2.49%	74.6%1.53%	59.3%7.06%
Denver Broncos	70.0%0.32%	74.2%1.25%	45.0%8.87%		62.7%1.33%	63.6%1.21%	68.3%0.26%	67.5%1.52%	60.9%3.28%	55.1%3.29%	68.7%2.06%	63.7%1.98%	71.1%1.06%	54.3%5.76%
Houston Oilers	60.2%0.10%	63.0%0.18%	33.6%1.72%	37.3%1.33%		47.7%0.31%	67.9%0.08%	52.3%0.34%	46.5%0.78%	43.5%0.81%	56.9%0.48%	55.5%0.31%	59.8%0.22%	43.6%1.14%
Indianapolis Colts	64.1%0.04%	60.2%0.27%	32.8%1.84%	36.4%1.21%	52.3%0.31%		69.4%0.06%	53.6%0.25%	45.6%0.61%	45.1%0.63%	59.5%0.35%	56.5%0.37%	66.1%0.17%	42.6%0.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	38.9%0.02%	49.2%0.06%	21.6%0.41%	31.7%0.26%	32.1%0.08%	30.6%0.06%		52.2%0.07%	34.8%0.13%	32.7%0.15%	48.9%0.09%	38.3%0.09%	40.0%0.04%	36.4%0.23%
Los Angeles Raiders	61.3%0.08%	61.6%0.28%	28.7%1.98%	32.5%1.52%	47.7%0.34%	46.4%0.25%	47.8%0.07%		41.2%0.76%	39.4%0.77%	54.5%0.48%	47.8%0.51%	51.1%0.22%	40.6%1.16%
Miami Dolphins	64.2%0.16%	60.0%0.70%	35.6%5.09%	39.1%3.28%	53.5%0.78%	54.4%0.61%	65.2%0.13%	58.8%0.76%		44.6%1.81%	61.4%0.99%	57.7%1.04%	62.3%0.56%	44.8%2.44%
New England Patriots	60.7%0.15%	68.1%0.79%	40.0%5.19%	44.9%3.29%	56.5%0.81%	54.9%0.63%	67.3%0.15%	60.6%0.77%	55.4%1.81%		62.7%1.06%	58.3%1.27%	65.7%0.58%	48.5%2.77%
New York Jets	51.6%0.09%	53.5%0.40%	26.4%3.12%	31.3%2.06%	43.1%0.48%	40.5%0.35%	51.1%0.09%	45.5%0.48%	38.6%0.99%	37.3%1.06%		46.6%0.66%	55.9%0.34%	34.5%1.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers	54.6%0.13%	62.3%0.27%	30.4%2.49%	36.3%1.98%	44.5%0.31%	43.5%0.37%	61.7%0.09%	52.2%0.51%	42.3%1.04%	41.7%1.27%	53.4%0.66%		56.5%0.34%	40.5%1.42%
San Diego Chargers	50.8%0.06%	48.7%0.19%	25.4%1.53%	28.9%1.06%	40.2%0.22%	33.9%0.17%	60.0%0.04%	48.9%0.22%	37.7%0.56%	34.3%0.58%	44.1%0.34%	43.5%0.34%		33.9%0.84%
Seattle Seahawks	58.3%0.26%	70.1%0.92%	40.7%7.06%	45.7%5.76%	56.4%1.14%	57.4%0.94%	63.6%0.23%	59.4%1.16%	55.2%2.44%	51.5%2.77%	65.5%1.51%	59.5%1.42%	66.1%0.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		12.3%0.16%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	41.2%0.02%	41.7%0.02%	29.4%0.03%	21.6%0.04%	20.0%<0.01%	7.3%0.15%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	10.4%0.11%
Chicago Bears	87.7%0.16%		69.6%1.12%	75.1%0.22%	76.3%0.25%	70.2%1.66%	64.3%2.96%	51.8%5.25%	62.7%2.89%	69.2%0.65%	38.2%16.46%	73.6%0.59%	82.0%0.17%	49.1%11.24%
Dallas Cowboys	66.7%<0.01%	30.4%1.12%		75.0%0.01%	56.2%0.02%	49.3%0.14%	43.4%0.22%	33.8%0.46%	42.4%0.26%	56.7%0.06%	19.7%1.50%	47.5%0.06%	66.7%<0.01%	30.4%1.17%
Detroit Lions	0.0%<0.01%	24.9%0.22%	25.0%0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.02%	26.3%0.02%	23.5%0.08%	27.5%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.27%	57.1%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.7%0.14%
Green Bay Packers	100.0%<0.01%	23.7%0.25%	43.8%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%		50.0%0.02%	35.3%0.03%	27.7%0.13%	30.0%0.06%	50.0%0.01%	17.6%0.36%	20.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	21.0%0.23%
Los Angeles Rams	58.8%0.02%	29.8%1.66%	50.7%0.14%	60.0%0.02%	50.0%0.02%		45.6%0.32%	33.1%0.54%	43.0%0.40%	48.4%0.09%	23.5%1.95%	56.4%0.08%	68.4%0.02%	30.6%1.33%
Minnesota Vikings	58.3%0.02%	35.7%2.96%	56.6%0.22%	73.7%0.02%	64.7%0.03%	54.4%0.32%		35.4%1.12%	49.8%0.60%	57.7%0.14%	24.8%3.60%	52.9%0.12%	76.9%0.03%	32.2%1.98%
New Orleans Saints	70.6%0.03%	48.2%5.25%	66.2%0.46%	76.5%0.08%	72.3%0.13%	66.9%0.54%	64.6%1.12%		62.3%1.18%	69.9%0.30%	37.9%7.94%	71.7%0.25%	82.9%0.08%	47.3%4.17%
New York Giants	78.4%0.04%	37.3%2.89%	57.6%0.26%	72.5%0.05%	70.0%0.06%	57.0%0.40%	50.2%0.60%	37.7%1.18%		58.9%0.16%	26.3%3.86%	57.1%0.15%	72.2%0.04%	36.4%3.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	80.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.65%	43.3%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	51.6%0.09%	42.3%0.14%	30.1%0.30%	41.1%0.16%		21.7%1.00%	62.5%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	31.5%0.77%
San Francisco 49ers	92.7%0.15%	61.8%16.46%	80.3%1.50%	84.6%0.27%	82.4%0.36%	76.5%1.95%	75.2%3.60%	62.1%7.94%	73.7%3.86%	78.3%1.00%		80.0%0.80%	85.7%0.22%	61.5%13.35%
St. Louis Cardinals	50.0%<0.01%	26.4%0.59%	52.5%0.06%	42.9%<0.01%	80.0%0.01%	43.6%0.08%	47.1%0.12%	28.3%0.25%	42.9%0.15%	37.5%0.02%	20.0%0.80%		85.7%<0.01%	27.7%0.57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.0%<0.01%	18.0%0.17%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.02%	23.1%0.03%	17.1%0.08%	27.8%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	14.3%0.22%	14.3%<0.01%		20.1%0.13%
Washington Redskins	89.6%0.11%	50.9%11.24%	69.6%1.17%	79.3%0.14%	79.0%0.23%	69.4%1.33%	67.8%1.98%	52.7%4.17%	63.6%3.31%	68.5%0.77%	38.5%13.35%	72.3%0.57%	79.9%0.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills	75.0%<0.01%	30.9%0.16%	71.4%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	46.2%0.01%	24.0%0.03%	34.3%0.07%	35.7%0.03%	14.3%<0.01%	24.4%0.27%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	30.6%0.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	75.0%<0.01%	22.3%0.53%	46.5%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	32.6%0.04%	34.5%0.09%	23.6%0.23%	36.8%0.11%	46.2%0.03%	15.8%0.75%	52.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	24.4%0.41%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	82.6%0.02%	51.2%5.68%	65.8%0.39%	75.6%0.04%	76.0%0.07%	65.8%0.52%	62.1%1.01%	50.4%2.70%	63.1%1.21%	66.1%0.25%	39.7%8.81%	69.3%0.21%	85.3%0.03%	49.4%5.21%
Denver Broncos	81.8%0.01%	46.2%3.91%	63.4%0.27%	68.0%0.03%	87.2%0.05%	66.7%0.40%	59.6%0.65%	45.4%1.94%	58.1%0.86%	56.0%0.19%	36.6%6.19%	66.7%0.12%	79.2%0.02%	44.2%3.67%
Houston Oilers	33.3%<0.01%	36.9%0.78%	49.1%0.05%	28.6%<0.01%	80.0%0.01%	50.0%0.06%	48.8%0.13%	32.5%0.36%	48.1%0.16%	63.2%0.04%	26.2%1.13%	72.0%0.03%	40.0%<0.01%	34.4%0.66%
Indianapolis Colts	0.0%<0.01%	38.0%0.69%	41.8%0.06%	66.7%<0.01%	60.0%0.01%	55.7%0.06%	48.8%0.13%	34.7%0.29%	43.5%0.13%	57.1%0.02%	27.6%1.03%	61.9%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%	38.4%0.60%
Kansas City Chiefs		31.0%0.12%	50.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	48.0%0.03%	18.5%0.05%	36.4%0.03%	42.9%<0.01%	21.7%0.20%	22.2%<0.01%		23.8%0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders		30.3%0.75%	55.4%0.06%	42.9%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	54.5%0.07%	43.8%0.12%	32.5%0.33%	39.8%0.17%	41.2%0.03%	21.9%1.11%	62.5%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	31.4%0.63%
Miami Dolphins	77.8%<0.01%	38.0%1.82%	52.9%0.14%	70.0%0.02%	58.8%0.02%	52.0%0.20%	45.7%0.31%	34.7%0.88%	41.3%0.40%	48.1%0.08%	28.5%2.83%	55.7%0.06%	45.5%0.01%	37.6%1.59%
New England Patriots	70.0%0.01%	45.3%2.08%	63.6%0.14%	66.7%0.02%	63.0%0.03%	59.0%0.21%	48.8%0.41%	44.7%0.98%	52.9%0.44%	57.8%0.08%	30.2%3.23%	57.8%0.09%	90.0%0.01%	39.6%1.94%
New York Jets	50.0%<0.01%	28.3%0.88%	41.7%0.06%	53.3%0.01%	50.0%0.01%	44.0%0.08%	43.9%0.17%	28.3%0.41%	39.2%0.20%	44.2%0.04%	21.1%1.44%	51.9%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	24.5%0.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.7%<0.01%	34.3%1.00%	54.7%0.05%	76.9%0.01%	69.2%0.01%	56.6%0.08%	41.9%0.17%	32.7%0.44%	38.2%0.21%	43.9%0.04%	24.0%1.47%	56.4%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	32.2%0.89%
San Diego Chargers	66.7%<0.01%	29.5%0.45%	39.3%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.04%	40.0%0.08%	27.6%0.22%	37.6%0.11%	52.6%0.02%	15.9%0.73%	62.5%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	29.0%0.40%
Seattle Seahawks	81.8%0.01%	41.5%2.86%	64.7%0.20%	69.2%0.03%	75.7%0.04%	56.2%0.29%	56.5%0.47%	40.8%1.37%	54.3%0.66%	62.7%0.14%	30.6%4.62%	58.7%0.10%	76.2%0.02%	40.3%2.67%
Atlanta Falcons															25.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	17.4%0.02%	18.2%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			22.2%<0.01%	30.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%
Chicago Bears															69.1%0.16%	77.7%0.53%	48.8%5.68%	53.8%3.91%	63.1%0.78%	62.0%0.69%	69.0%0.12%	69.7%0.75%	62.0%1.82%	54.7%2.08%	71.7%0.88%	65.7%1.00%	70.5%0.45%	58.5%2.86%
Dallas Cowboys															28.6%0.01%	53.5%0.04%	34.2%0.39%	36.6%0.27%	50.9%0.05%	58.2%0.06%	50.0%0.01%	44.6%0.06%	47.1%0.14%	36.4%0.14%	58.3%0.06%	45.3%0.05%	60.7%0.03%	35.3%0.20%
Detroit Lions															50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	24.4%0.04%	32.0%0.03%	71.4%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	57.1%<0.01%	30.0%0.02%	33.3%0.02%	46.7%0.01%	23.1%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.03%
Green Bay Packers															50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.07%	12.8%0.05%	20.0%0.01%	40.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	41.2%0.02%	37.0%0.03%	50.0%0.01%	30.8%0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	24.3%0.04%
Los Angeles Rams															53.8%0.01%	67.4%0.04%	34.2%0.52%	33.3%0.40%	50.0%0.06%	44.3%0.06%	60.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.07%	48.0%0.20%	41.0%0.21%	56.0%0.08%	43.4%0.08%	66.7%0.04%	43.8%0.29%
Minnesota Vikings															76.0%0.03%	65.5%0.09%	37.9%1.01%	40.4%0.65%	51.2%0.13%	51.2%0.13%	52.0%0.03%	56.2%0.12%	54.3%0.31%	51.2%0.41%	56.1%0.17%	58.1%0.17%	60.0%0.08%	43.5%0.47%
New Orleans Saints															65.7%0.07%	76.4%0.23%	49.6%2.70%	54.6%1.94%	67.5%0.36%	65.3%0.29%	81.5%0.05%	67.5%0.33%	65.3%0.88%	55.3%0.98%	71.7%0.41%	67.3%0.44%	72.4%0.22%	59.2%1.37%
New York Giants															64.3%0.03%	63.2%0.11%	36.9%1.21%	41.9%0.86%	51.9%0.16%	56.5%0.13%	63.6%0.03%	60.2%0.17%	58.7%0.40%	47.1%0.44%	60.8%0.20%	61.8%0.21%	62.4%0.11%	45.7%0.66%
Philadelphia Eagles															85.7%<0.01%	53.8%0.03%	33.9%0.25%	44.0%0.19%	36.8%0.04%	42.9%0.02%	57.1%<0.01%	58.8%0.03%	51.9%0.08%	42.2%0.08%	55.8%0.04%	56.1%0.04%	47.4%0.02%	37.3%0.14%
San Francisco 49ers															75.6%0.27%	84.2%0.75%	60.3%8.81%	63.4%6.19%	73.8%1.13%	72.4%1.03%	78.3%0.20%	78.1%1.11%	71.5%2.83%	69.8%3.23%	78.9%1.44%	76.0%1.47%	84.1%0.73%	69.4%4.62%
St. Louis Cardinals															50.0%<0.01%	47.4%0.02%	30.7%0.21%	33.3%0.12%	28.0%0.03%	38.1%0.02%	77.8%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%	44.3%0.06%	42.2%0.09%	48.1%0.03%	43.6%0.04%	37.5%<0.01%	41.3%0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	14.7%0.03%	20.8%0.02%	60.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	54.5%0.01%	10.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	23.8%0.02%
Washington Redskins															69.4%0.12%	75.6%0.41%	50.6%5.21%	55.8%3.67%	65.6%0.66%	61.6%0.60%	76.2%0.10%	68.6%0.63%	62.4%1.59%	60.4%1.94%	75.5%0.80%	67.8%0.89%	71.0%0.40%	59.7%2.67%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	69.03%	45.29%	29.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	65.85%	37.26%	16.86%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	100.00%	65.53%	34.39%	13.86%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	100.00%	52.46%	20.98%	11.40%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	100.00%	38.17%	18.21%	10.28%	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	68.96%	32.96%	12.97%	7.39%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	32.10%	12.58%	3.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	54.02%	20.49%	9.85%	3.91%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	45.98%	16.02%	5.92%	1.91%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	31.04%	7.38%	2.56%	1.14%	Eliminated in Conference Championship

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Seattle Seahawks
Houston Oilers		46.0%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks	54.0%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings		31.0%100.00%
New Orleans Saints	69.0%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (1st)				70.3%45.98%	62.1%54.02%
Denver Broncos			65.2%45.98%	65.9%54.02%
Houston Oilers		34.8%45.98%
Indianapolis Colts	29.7%45.98%	34.1%54.02%
Seattle Seahawks	37.9%54.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears			52.2%68.96%		53.0%31.04%
Minnesota Vikings				23.8%31.04%
New Orleans Saints	47.8%68.96%
San Francisco 49ers		76.2%31.04%			65.8%68.96%
Washington Redskins	47.0%31.04%			34.2%68.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (1st)		50.6%43.12%	67.1%11.26%	68.9%11.47%
Denver Broncos	49.4%43.12%			63.4%8.90%	55.0%13.51%
Houston Oilers	32.9%11.26%			46.5%4.76%
Indianapolis Colts	31.1%11.47%	36.6%8.90%	53.5%4.76%		45.9%6.98%
Seattle Seahawks		45.0%13.51%		54.1%6.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		64.9%3.95%		33.1%36.23%	52.2%12.28%
Minnesota Vikings	35.1%3.95%				34.2%3.43%
New Orleans Saints				35.8%21.65%	46.1%11.31%
San Francisco 49ers	66.9%36.23%		64.2%21.65%		64.4%11.16%
Washington Redskins	47.8%12.28%	65.8%3.43%	53.9%11.31%	35.6%11.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.7%7.90%	61.0%0.91%	48.2%4.81%	40.0%16.81%	48.9%6.84%
Denver Broncos	46.5%7.11%	57.3%0.88%	42.3%4.41%	34.9%15.74%	43.0%6.25%
Houston Oilers	35.2%1.24%	39.3%0.17%	39.9%0.78%	26.8%2.66%	35.9%1.08%
Indianapolis Colts	36.8%2.64%	47.2%0.35%	32.1%1.70%	27.5%5.63%	33.2%2.26%
Seattle Seahawks	45.3%2.09%	49.4%0.25%	42.8%1.27%	34.4%4.46%	42.6%1.79%
Chicago Bears						50.3%7.90%	53.5%7.11%	64.8%1.24%	63.2%2.64%	54.7%2.09%
Minnesota Vikings						39.0%0.91%	42.7%0.88%	60.7%0.17%	52.8%0.35%	50.6%0.25%
New Orleans Saints						51.8%4.81%	57.7%4.41%	60.1%0.78%	67.9%1.70%	57.2%1.27%
San Francisco 49ers						60.0%16.81%	65.1%15.74%	73.2%2.66%	72.5%5.63%	65.6%4.46%
Washington Redskins						51.1%6.84%	57.0%6.25%	64.1%1.08%	66.8%2.26%	57.4%1.79%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 29.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

65.73%

Win Prob

65.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.48%

Win Prob

66.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.99%

Win Prob

65.07%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 16.86% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

50.91%

Win Prob

62.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

58.53%

Win Prob

50.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.88%

Win Prob

40.01%

Denver Broncos 13.86% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

54.28%

Win Prob

65.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

61.97%

Win Prob

49.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.67%

Win Prob

34.93%

Chicago Bears 11.40% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

68.64%

Win Prob

52.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

57.25%

Win Prob

33.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

34.90%

Win Prob

50.34%

Washington Redskins 10.28% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

61.80%

Win Prob

34.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

33.51%

Win Prob

53.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.66%

Win Prob

57.04%

New Orleans Saints 7.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.81%

Win Prob

35.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.47%

Win Prob

57.68%

Indianapolis Colts 3.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

57.46%

Win Prob

34.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

28.40%

Win Prob

31.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

38.95%

Win Prob

27.55%

Seattle Seahawks 3.91% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.02%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

61.70%

Win Prob

44.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.28%

Win Prob

34.43%

Houston Oilers 1.91% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.98%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

62.62%

Win Prob

32.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.27%

Win Prob

26.83%

Minnesota Vikings 1.14% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

54.20%

Win Prob

35.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

32.87%

Win Prob

42.68%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1987-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-48	1474.83	1384.31	58.11%	41.31%	-39.42	0-1
1987-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 21-20	1435.41	1568.71	35.50%	63.94%	+7.03	1-1
1987-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-28	1442.44	1490.46	47.33%	52.07%	-20.86	1-2
1987-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-25	1421.58	1574.86	32.92%	66.54%	-10.27	1-3
1987-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-20	1411.31	1488.38	43.19%	56.22%	+12.38	2-3
1987-10-25	@ Houston Oilers	L 33-37	1423.69	1486.52	36.48%	62.95%	-8.05	2-4
1987-11-01	New Orleans Saints	L 0-38	1415.64	1497.87	42.47%	56.95%	-28.86	2-5
1987-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-38	1386.78	1581.41	21.24%	78.33%	-13.85	2-6
1987-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-16	1372.93	1468.51	40.60%	58.82%	-10.97	2-7
1987-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1361.96	1519.94	24.97%	74.56%	-9.13	2-8
1987-11-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-34	1352.83	1434.53	42.54%	56.87%	-16.91	2-9
1987-12-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-10	1335.92	1474.15	27.15%	72.36%	+26.39	3-9
1987-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-33	1362.31	1498.07	27.43%	72.08%	-17.38	3-10
1987-12-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-35	1344.93	1688.77	10.29%	89.47%	-5.99	3-11
1987-12-27	Detroit Lions	L 13-30	1338.94	1363.89	50.65%	48.76%	-23.00	3-12
1987-09-13	New York Jets	L 28-31	1430.01	1505.33	43.44%	55.97%	-8.30	0-1
1987-09-20	Houston Oilers	W 34-30	1421.71	1461.83	48.46%	50.94%	+11.22	1-1
1987-10-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-47	1432.93	1402.42	58.53%	40.88%	-41.25	1-2
1987-10-11	@ New England Patriots	L 7-14	1391.68	1514.58	28.92%	70.57%	-8.44	1-3
1987-10-18	New York Giants	W 6-3	1383.24	1515.56	35.63%	63.81%	+12.16	2-3
1987-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-31	1395.40	1536.10	26.87%	72.64%	+13.84	3-3
1987-11-01	Washington Redskins	L 7-27	1409.24	1614.12	26.74%	72.77%	-13.19	3-4
1987-11-08	Denver Broncos	W 21-14	1396.05	1557.13	31.94%	67.53%	+19.65	4-4
1987-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-27	1415.70	1595.26	22.72%	76.84%	-6.14	4-5
1987-11-22	@ New York Jets	W 17-14	1409.56	1531.68	29.02%	70.48%	+13.42	5-5
1987-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 27-0	1422.98	1533.71	38.52%	60.91%	+34.83	6-5
1987-12-06	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 21-34	1457.81	1495.97	39.83%	59.59%	-15.84	6-6
1987-12-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-3	1441.97	1515.10	35.13%	64.32%	+34.67	7-6
1987-12-20	New England Patriots	L 7-13	1476.64	1522.14	47.69%	51.71%	-12.87	7-7
1987-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-17	1463.77	1457.93	46.01%	53.39%	-16.04	7-8
1987-09-14	New York Giants	W 34-19	1584.08	1603.57	51.43%	47.97%	+20.47	1-0
1987-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-3	1604.55	1423.74	76.96%	22.60%	+10.28	2-0
1987-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-3	1614.83	1486.95	63.22%	36.22%	+22.59	3-0
1987-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1637.42	1526.01	69.18%	30.30%	+14.95	4-0
1987-10-18	New Orleans Saints	L 17-19	1652.37	1492.74	74.74%	24.79%	-11.62	4-1
1987-10-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-26	1640.75	1435.91	72.77%	26.75%	+2.95	5-1
1987-11-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-28	1643.70	1414.22	81.53%	18.09%	+3.45	6-1
1987-11-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-24	1647.15	1432.66	73.85%	25.68%	+4.00	7-1
1987-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 29-31	1651.15	1537.48	61.31%	38.12%	-9.54	7-2
1987-11-22	Detroit Lions	W 30-10	1641.61	1394.00	83.04%	16.60%	+8.18	8-2
1987-11-29	Green Bay Packers	W 23-10	1649.79	1444.07	79.39%	20.20%	+8.03	9-2
1987-12-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-24	1657.82	1542.09	61.59%	37.84%	+10.22	10-2
1987-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-41	1668.04	1655.64	46.95%	52.45%	-33.13	10-3
1987-12-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-34	1634.91	1572.40	62.91%	36.53%	-24.95	10-4
1987-12-27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 6-3	1609.96	1483.55	63.02%	36.41%	+6.95	11-4
1987-09-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-21	1519.20	1424.78	58.65%	40.76%	+6.36	1-0
1987-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 26-27	1525.56	1540.62	52.07%	47.34%	-5.73	1-1
1987-10-04	San Diego Chargers	L 9-10	1519.83	1475.08	60.50%	38.92%	-6.66	1-2
1987-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-10	1513.17	1562.41	38.31%	61.12%	+17.79	2-2
1987-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-34	1530.96	1545.95	52.08%	47.32%	-33.44	2-3
1987-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1497.52	1510.16	43.39%	56.02%	-8.28	2-4
1987-11-01	Houston Oilers	L 29-31	1489.24	1494.57	53.46%	45.94%	-8.33	2-5
1987-11-08	Miami Dolphins	L 14-20	1480.91	1538.58	45.95%	53.46%	-12.40	2-6
1987-11-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1468.51	1372.93	58.82%	40.60%	+10.96	3-6
1987-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-30	1479.47	1479.09	54.28%	45.13%	-22.36	3-7
1987-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 20-27	1457.11	1518.25	36.71%	62.73%	-10.71	3-8
1987-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-27	1446.40	1386.55	62.55%	36.88%	+7.05	4-8
1987-12-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1453.45	1599.18	26.31%	73.21%	-10.86	4-9
1987-12-20	New Orleans Saints	L 24-41	1442.59	1600.63	32.32%	67.14%	-14.70	4-10
1987-12-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-21	1427.89	1493.03	36.18%	63.26%	-7.98	4-11
1987-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-28	1534.68	1480.51	52.96%	46.45%	-15.43	0-1
1987-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-10	1519.25	1514.49	54.90%	44.50%	+24.03	1-1
1987-10-04	@ New England Patriots	W 20-10	1543.28	1532.95	46.66%	52.75%	+18.37	2-1
1987-10-11	Houston Oilers	L 10-15	1561.65	1492.27	63.82%	35.62%	-15.70	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-0	1545.95	1530.96	47.32%	52.08%	+33.44	3-2
1987-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-17	1579.39	1476.00	68.20%	31.28%	+12.44	4-2
1987-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1591.83	1525.86	54.64%	44.76%	-10.42	4-3
1987-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-3	1581.41	1386.78	78.33%	21.24%	+13.85	5-3
1987-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 27-21	1595.26	1415.70	76.84%	22.72%	+6.14	6-3
1987-11-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 40-7	1601.40	1521.71	56.59%	42.82%	+27.12	7-3
1987-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1628.52	1627.37	45.34%	54.06%	-18.70	7-4
1987-12-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-9	1609.82	1504.46	68.44%	31.04%	-10.64	7-5
1987-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-24	1599.18	1453.45	73.21%	26.31%	+10.85	8-5
1987-12-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 24-17	1610.03	1494.60	61.55%	37.89%	+11.05	9-5
1987-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-13	1621.08	1499.61	62.36%	37.07%	+10.02	10-5
1987-09-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-24	1493.74	1434.97	53.61%	45.79%	-19.58	0-1
1987-09-20	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1474.16	1583.10	30.60%	68.88%	+10.71	1-1
1987-10-04	@ New York Jets	W 38-24	1484.87	1538.35	37.74%	61.69%	+25.40	2-1
1987-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-22	1510.27	1464.35	60.66%	38.76%	+18.63	3-1
1987-10-19	Washington Redskins	L 7-13	1528.90	1598.66	44.23%	55.18%	-11.94	3-2
1987-10-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-37	1516.96	1432.91	57.20%	42.21%	-25.96	3-3
1987-11-02	New York Giants	W 33-24	1491.00	1522.83	49.66%	49.75%	+16.44	4-3
1987-11-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1507.44	1377.61	63.48%	35.96%	-22.08	4-4
1987-11-15	@ New England Patriots	W 23-17	1485.36	1513.85	41.17%	58.25%	+15.70	5-4
1987-11-22	Miami Dolphins	L 14-20	1501.06	1519.81	51.54%	47.86%	-13.90	5-5
1987-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 38-44	1487.16	1529.08	48.20%	51.20%	-13.01	5-6
1987-12-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-21	1474.15	1335.92	72.36%	27.15%	-26.39	5-7
1987-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-24	1447.76	1623.49	23.11%	76.44%	-5.10	5-8
1987-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 29-21	1442.66	1515.45	35.17%	64.28%	+20.00	6-8
1987-12-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-16	1462.66	1466.70	53.65%	45.76%	+11.28	7-8
1987-09-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 40-17	1537.73	1552.21	52.15%	47.25%	+24.97	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	T 17-17	1562.70	1419.47	65.24%	34.21%	-0.85	1-0
1987-10-04	Houston Oilers	L 10-40	1561.85	1450.61	69.16%	30.32%	-41.66	1-1
1987-10-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 30-14	1520.19	1562.53	48.14%	51.26%	+22.58	2-1
1987-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-17	1542.77	1445.08	59.11%	40.31%	+13.34	3-1
1987-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-34	1556.11	1490.59	54.58%	44.83%	-15.90	3-2
1987-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 34-0	1540.21	1394.54	73.20%	26.32%	+16.92	4-2
1987-11-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1557.13	1396.05	67.53%	31.94%	-19.65	4-3
1987-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-29	1537.48	1651.15	38.12%	61.31%	+9.54	5-3
1987-11-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-17	1547.02	1468.60	56.41%	43.00%	+11.61	6-3
1987-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-17	1558.63	1525.82	49.89%	49.52%	+20.41	7-3
1987-12-06	New England Patriots	W 31-20	1579.04	1510.76	63.68%	35.76%	+13.08	8-3
1987-12-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-28	1592.12	1557.79	50.10%	49.30%	-14.60	8-4
1987-12-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1577.52	1396.70	76.96%	22.60%	+4.31	9-4
1987-12-27	San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1581.83	1451.52	71.44%	28.06%	+15.16	10-4
1987-09-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-34	1451.50	1518.80	35.89%	63.55%	-15.33	0-1
1987-09-20	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-27	1436.17	1528.90	32.61%	66.86%	-16.09	0-2
1987-10-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-31	1420.08	1413.46	55.17%	44.24%	-12.15	0-3
1987-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 19-16	1407.93	1440.97	40.53%	58.88%	+11.23	1-3
1987-10-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-37	1419.16	1544.62	36.54%	62.90%	-19.33	1-4
1987-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 33-34	1399.83	1442.56	48.09%	51.31%	-5.29	1-5
1987-11-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-34	1394.54	1540.21	26.32%	73.20%	-16.93	1-6
1987-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-17	1377.61	1507.44	35.96%	63.48%	+22.09	2-6
1987-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-20	1399.70	1612.58	19.55%	80.06%	-5.70	2-7
1987-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-30	1394.00	1641.61	16.60%	83.04%	-8.18	2-8
1987-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1385.82	1370.11	56.46%	42.96%	-16.44	2-9
1987-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-37	1369.38	1478.49	38.74%	60.68%	-19.58	2-10
1987-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1349.80	1384.44	40.31%	59.11%	+20.57	3-10
1987-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1370.37	1515.64	33.95%	65.51%	-6.48	3-11
1987-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-13	1363.89	1338.94	48.76%	50.65%	+23.00	4-11
1987-09-13	Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-20	1441.59	1506.78	44.88%	54.53%	-22.12	0-1
1987-09-20	Denver Broncos	T 17-17	1419.47	1562.70	34.21%	65.24%	+0.85	0-1
1987-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-16	1420.32	1546.66	28.52%	70.98%	+20.65	1-1
1987-10-11	Detroit Lions	L 16-19	1440.97	1407.93	58.88%	40.53%	-11.22	1-2
1987-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1429.75	1445.72	51.94%	47.47%	+12.81	2-2
1987-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-33	1442.56	1399.83	51.31%	48.09%	+5.30	3-2
1987-11-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-23	1447.86	1432.96	56.34%	43.07%	-15.20	3-3
1987-11-08	Chicago Bears	L 24-26	1432.66	1647.15	25.68%	73.85%	-4.00	3-4
1987-11-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-24	1428.66	1574.76	26.27%	73.25%	-9.61	3-5
1987-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-3	1419.05	1395.13	48.61%	50.79%	+25.02	4-5
1987-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-23	1444.07	1649.79	20.20%	79.39%	-8.02	4-6
1987-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-23	1436.05	1646.07	26.17%	73.35%	-9.58	4-7
1987-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1426.47	1531.86	39.25%	60.17%	+16.22	5-7
1987-12-19	@ New York Giants	L 10-20	1442.69	1505.40	36.50%	62.94%	-12.73	5-8
1987-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-33	1429.96	1615.33	22.15%	77.42%	-7.32	5-9
1987-09-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-16	1449.57	1522.83	43.73%	55.68%	+12.26	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 30-34	1461.83	1421.71	50.94%	48.46%	-11.22	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 40-10	1450.61	1561.85	30.32%	69.16%	+41.66	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 15-10	1492.27	1561.65	35.62%	63.82%	+15.70	3-1
1987-10-18	New England Patriots	L 7-21	1507.97	1523.02	52.07%	47.33%	-21.45	3-2
1987-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-33	1486.52	1423.69	62.95%	36.48%	+8.05	4-2
1987-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-29	1494.57	1489.24	45.94%	53.46%	+8.32	5-2
1987-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1502.89	1616.85	29.99%	69.49%	-8.75	5-3
1987-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-3	1494.14	1506.66	43.40%	56.00%	+27.57	6-3
1987-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-40	1521.71	1601.40	42.82%	56.59%	-27.12	6-4
1987-11-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-51	1494.59	1478.86	47.43%	51.97%	-25.60	6-5
1987-12-06	San Diego Chargers	W 33-18	1468.99	1505.41	48.99%	50.41%	+21.50	7-5
1987-12-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1490.49	1587.39	32.08%	67.38%	-13.24	7-6
1987-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-16	1477.25	1515.40	48.75%	50.65%	+15.78	8-6
1987-12-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-17	1493.03	1427.89	63.26%	36.18%	+7.98	9-6
1987-09-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-23	1424.78	1519.20	40.76%	58.65%	-6.35	0-1
1987-09-20	Miami Dolphins	L 10-23	1418.43	1516.38	40.27%	59.15%	-16.01	0-2
1987-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 47-6	1402.42	1432.93	40.88%	58.53%	+41.25	1-2
1987-10-11	New York Jets	W 6-0	1443.67	1512.95	44.29%	55.11%	+14.86	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-21	1458.53	1493.55	40.26%	59.16%	-16.61	2-3
1987-10-25	New England Patriots	W 30-16	1441.92	1544.48	39.64%	59.78%	+24.62	3-3
1987-11-01	@ New York Jets	W 19-14	1466.54	1508.77	39.27%	60.16%	+14.80	4-3
1987-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 13-16	1481.34	1536.28	46.34%	53.07%	-8.84	4-4
1987-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 40-21	1472.50	1550.99	34.43%	65.02%	+31.17	5-4
1987-11-22	@ New England Patriots	L 0-24	1503.67	1498.14	45.97%	53.43%	-24.81	5-5
1987-11-29	Houston Oilers	W 51-27	1478.86	1494.59	51.97%	47.43%	+25.60	6-5
1987-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-7	1504.46	1609.82	31.04%	68.44%	+10.64	7-5
1987-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 3-27	1515.10	1441.97	64.32%	35.13%	-34.66	7-6
1987-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1480.44	1472.60	46.30%	53.10%	+21.08	8-6
1987-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-6	1501.52	1344.65	74.44%	25.09%	+11.74	9-6
1987-09-13	San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1503.61	1477.56	57.91%	41.51%	+12.11	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-43	1515.72	1527.24	43.55%	55.86%	-25.85	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-35	1489.87	1544.98	37.52%	61.92%	-17.56	1-2
1987-10-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-42	1472.31	1523.08	38.11%	61.32%	-27.23	1-3
1987-10-18	Denver Broncos	L 17-26	1445.08	1542.77	40.31%	59.11%	-13.33	1-4
1987-10-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-42	1431.75	1508.34	34.67%	64.77%	-17.53	1-5
1987-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-31	1414.22	1643.70	18.09%	81.53%	-3.45	1-6
1987-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-17	1410.77	1502.12	41.19%	58.23%	-4.54	1-7
1987-11-15	New York Jets	L 9-16	1406.23	1520.58	38.03%	61.40%	-11.10	1-8
1987-11-22	Green Bay Packers	L 3-23	1395.13	1419.05	50.79%	48.61%	-25.02	1-9
1987-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-20	1370.11	1385.82	42.96%	56.46%	+16.44	2-9
1987-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-30	1386.55	1446.40	36.88%	62.55%	-7.04	2-10
1987-12-13	Los Angeles Raiders	W 16-10	1379.51	1511.80	35.63%	63.81%	+17.19	3-10
1987-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1396.70	1577.52	22.60%	76.96%	-4.31	3-11
1987-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-20	1392.39	1597.35	26.73%	72.78%	+36.67	4-11
1987-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-0	1506.78	1441.59	54.53%	44.88%	+22.12	1-0
1987-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 27-7	1528.90	1436.17	66.86%	32.61%	+16.08	2-0
1987-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-17	1544.98	1489.87	61.92%	37.52%	+17.55	3-0
1987-10-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-30	1562.53	1520.19	51.26%	48.14%	-22.58	3-1
1987-10-18	San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1539.95	1491.91	60.95%	38.47%	-16.43	3-2
1987-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 13-35	1523.52	1563.94	48.42%	50.98%	-25.02	3-3
1987-11-01	@ New England Patriots	L 23-26	1498.50	1519.86	42.16%	57.25%	-8.05	3-4
1987-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-31	1490.45	1494.08	44.66%	54.74%	-16.33	3-5
1987-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-16	1474.12	1545.13	35.40%	64.04%	-5.52	3-6
1987-11-22	Denver Broncos	L 17-23	1468.60	1547.02	43.00%	56.41%	-11.61	3-7
1987-11-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-14	1456.99	1609.20	25.60%	73.93%	+38.98	4-7
1987-12-06	Buffalo Bills	W 34-21	1495.97	1457.81	59.59%	39.83%	+15.83	5-7
1987-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-16	1511.80	1379.51	63.81%	35.63%	-17.20	5-8
1987-12-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-24	1494.60	1610.03	37.89%	61.55%	-11.05	5-9
1987-12-27	Chicago Bears	L 3-6	1483.55	1609.96	36.41%	63.02%	-6.95	5-10
1987-09-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-20	1522.83	1449.57	55.68%	43.73%	-12.26	0-1
1987-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-21	1510.57	1534.13	50.85%	48.56%	-12.52	0-2
1987-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-37	1498.05	1478.90	47.92%	51.48%	-27.44	0-3
1987-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-21	1470.61	1511.32	48.38%	51.02%	+17.77	1-3
1987-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-24	1488.38	1411.31	56.22%	43.19%	-12.38	1-4
1987-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-30	1476.00	1579.39	31.28%	68.20%	-12.43	1-5
1987-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-31	1463.57	1599.05	35.22%	64.23%	-17.80	1-6
1987-11-08	New Orleans Saints	L 14-31	1445.77	1526.73	42.64%	56.77%	-19.39	1-7
1987-11-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1426.38	1420.56	46.01%	53.39%	+10.19	2-7
1987-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-26	1436.57	1618.28	22.51%	77.05%	+16.93	3-7
1987-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-3	1453.50	1417.07	59.36%	40.06%	+24.99	4-7
1987-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-16	1478.49	1369.38	60.68%	38.74%	+19.58	5-7
1987-12-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 33-0	1498.07	1362.31	72.08%	27.43%	+17.38	6-7
1987-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-29	1515.45	1442.66	64.28%	35.17%	-20.00	6-8
1987-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-48	1495.45	1694.76	20.80%	78.79%	-15.88	6-9
1987-09-13	@ New England Patriots	L 21-28	1528.89	1545.17	42.87%	56.54%	-12.51	0-1
1987-09-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-10	1516.38	1418.43	59.15%	40.27%	+16.01	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1532.39	1553.09	42.25%	57.16%	-9.31	1-2
1987-10-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 42-0	1523.08	1472.31	61.32%	38.11%	+27.23	2-2
1987-10-18	@ New York Jets	L 31-37	1550.31	1498.08	52.68%	46.73%	-14.21	2-3
1987-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1536.10	1395.40	72.64%	26.87%	-13.83	2-4
1987-11-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-24	1522.27	1518.44	54.77%	44.64%	+16.31	3-4
1987-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1538.58	1480.91	53.46%	45.95%	+12.41	4-4
1987-11-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-40	1550.99	1472.50	65.02%	34.43%	-31.18	4-5
1987-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-14	1519.81	1501.06	47.86%	51.54%	+13.90	5-5
1987-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-27	1533.71	1422.98	60.91%	38.52%	-34.82	5-6
1987-12-07	New York Jets	W 37-28	1498.89	1528.96	49.91%	49.49%	+16.35	6-6
1987-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-10	1515.24	1456.90	53.55%	45.85%	+21.44	7-6
1987-12-20	Washington Redskins	W 23-21	1536.68	1628.59	41.11%	58.30%	+9.08	8-6
1987-12-28	New England Patriots	L 10-24	1545.76	1535.01	55.75%	43.66%	-22.97	8-7
1987-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 34-19	1518.80	1451.50	63.55%	35.89%	+15.33	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-16	1534.13	1510.57	48.56%	50.85%	+12.53	2-0
1987-10-04	Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1546.66	1420.32	70.98%	28.52%	-20.65	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-27	1526.01	1637.42	30.30%	69.18%	-14.95	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1511.06	1415.44	58.82%	40.60%	-20.47	2-3
1987-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1490.59	1556.11	44.83%	54.58%	+15.90	3-3
1987-11-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-28	1506.49	1588.96	33.91%	65.54%	-12.41	3-4
1987-11-08	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-20	1494.08	1490.45	54.74%	44.66%	+16.33	4-4
1987-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1510.41	1438.51	64.16%	35.29%	+9.53	5-4
1987-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-13	1519.94	1361.96	74.56%	24.97%	+9.14	6-4
1987-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 44-38	1529.08	1487.16	51.20%	48.20%	+13.01	7-4
1987-12-06	Chicago Bears	L 24-30	1542.09	1657.82	37.84%	61.59%	-10.23	7-5
1987-12-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1531.86	1426.47	60.17%	39.25%	-16.22	7-6
1987-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1515.64	1370.37	65.51%	33.95%	+6.49	8-6
1987-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1522.13	1619.51	40.35%	59.07%	-7.71	8-7
1987-09-13	Miami Dolphins	W 28-21	1545.17	1528.89	56.54%	42.87%	+12.51	1-0
1987-09-21	@ New York Jets	L 24-43	1557.68	1513.62	51.50%	47.90%	-24.73	1-1
1987-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-20	1532.95	1543.28	52.75%	46.66%	-18.37	1-2
1987-10-11	Buffalo Bills	W 14-7	1514.58	1391.68	70.57%	28.92%	+8.44	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-7	1523.02	1507.97	47.33%	52.07%	+21.46	3-2
1987-10-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-30	1544.48	1441.92	59.78%	39.64%	-24.62	3-3
1987-11-01	Los Angeles Raiders	W 26-23	1519.86	1498.50	57.25%	42.16%	+8.05	4-3
1987-11-08	@ New York Giants	L 10-17	1527.91	1506.39	48.26%	51.14%	-14.06	4-4
1987-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-23	1513.85	1485.36	58.25%	41.17%	-15.71	4-5
1987-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-0	1498.14	1503.67	53.43%	45.97%	+24.82	5-5
1987-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1522.96	1452.14	64.02%	35.43%	-12.20	5-6
1987-12-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-31	1510.76	1579.04	35.76%	63.68%	-13.08	5-7
1987-12-13	New York Jets	W 42-20	1497.68	1512.61	52.09%	47.32%	+24.46	6-7
1987-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-7	1522.14	1476.64	51.71%	47.69%	+12.87	7-7
1987-12-28	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-10	1535.01	1545.76	43.66%	55.75%	+22.96	8-7
1987-09-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1480.51	1534.68	46.45%	52.96%	+15.43	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1495.94	1469.91	48.91%	50.49%	-17.04	1-1
1987-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-10	1478.90	1498.05	51.48%	47.92%	+27.43	2-1
1987-10-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-24	1506.33	1436.27	55.22%	44.18%	-13.59	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-17	1492.74	1652.37	24.79%	74.74%	+11.62	3-2
1987-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-24	1504.36	1592.56	41.63%	57.78%	-6.49	3-3
1987-11-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-0	1497.87	1415.64	56.95%	42.47%	+28.86	4-3
1987-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1526.73	1445.77	56.77%	42.64%	+19.38	5-3
1987-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-24	1546.11	1625.60	34.30%	65.15%	+10.14	6-3
1987-11-22	New York Giants	W 23-14	1556.25	1529.85	57.96%	41.46%	+13.71	7-3
1987-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-16	1569.96	1501.45	55.00%	44.40%	+9.79	8-3
1987-12-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 44-34	1579.75	1392.08	77.65%	21.92%	+7.64	9-3
1987-12-13	Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1587.39	1490.49	67.38%	32.08%	+13.24	10-3
1987-12-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-24	1600.63	1442.59	67.14%	32.32%	+14.70	11-3
1987-12-27	Green Bay Packers	W 33-24	1615.33	1429.96	77.42%	22.15%	+7.32	12-3
1987-09-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-34	1603.57	1584.08	47.97%	51.43%	-20.47	0-1
1987-09-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-16	1583.10	1474.16	68.88%	30.60%	-10.71	0-2
1987-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-41	1572.39	1546.36	57.91%	41.51%	-28.50	0-3
1987-10-11	Washington Redskins	L 12-38	1543.89	1570.33	50.43%	48.97%	-28.33	0-4
1987-10-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-6	1515.56	1383.24	63.81%	35.63%	-12.16	0-5
1987-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-7	1503.40	1442.44	62.70%	36.73%	+19.43	1-5
1987-11-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-33	1522.83	1491.00	49.75%	49.66%	-16.44	1-6
1987-11-08	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1506.39	1527.91	51.14%	48.26%	+14.07	2-6
1987-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1520.46	1485.68	50.17%	49.23%	+9.39	3-6
1987-11-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-23	1529.85	1556.25	41.46%	57.96%	-13.71	3-7
1987-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 19-23	1516.14	1601.35	33.56%	65.89%	-7.40	3-8
1987-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1508.74	1464.34	60.45%	38.97%	+7.44	4-8
1987-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-27	1516.18	1436.70	56.56%	42.85%	-10.78	4-9
1987-12-19	Green Bay Packers	W 20-10	1505.40	1442.69	62.94%	36.50%	+12.73	5-9
1987-12-27	New York Jets	W 20-7	1518.13	1465.68	61.55%	37.88%	+15.06	6-9
1987-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-28	1505.33	1430.01	55.97%	43.44%	+8.29	1-0
1987-09-21	New England Patriots	W 43-24	1513.62	1557.68	47.90%	51.50%	+24.73	2-0
1987-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-38	1538.35	1484.87	61.69%	37.74%	-25.40	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 0-6	1512.95	1443.67	55.11%	44.29%	-14.87	2-2
1987-10-18	Miami Dolphins	W 37-31	1498.08	1550.31	46.73%	52.68%	+14.21	3-2
1987-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1512.29	1610.60	31.91%	67.56%	-3.52	3-3
1987-11-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-19	1508.77	1466.54	60.16%	39.27%	-14.80	3-4
1987-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-14	1493.97	1601.37	38.98%	60.45%	+26.61	4-4
1987-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-9	1520.58	1406.23	61.40%	38.03%	+11.10	5-4
1987-11-22	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1531.68	1409.56	70.48%	29.02%	-13.43	5-5
1987-11-29	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-20	1518.25	1457.11	62.73%	36.71%	+10.71	6-5
1987-12-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-37	1528.96	1498.89	49.49%	49.91%	-16.35	6-6
1987-12-13	@ New England Patriots	L 20-42	1512.61	1497.68	47.32%	52.09%	-24.46	6-7
1987-12-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-38	1488.15	1435.46	61.59%	37.84%	-22.47	6-8
1987-12-27	@ New York Giants	L 7-20	1465.68	1518.13	37.88%	61.55%	-15.06	6-9
1987-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-34	1482.10	1556.52	34.96%	64.49%	-12.19	0-1
1987-09-20	New Orleans Saints	W 27-17	1469.91	1495.94	50.49%	48.91%	+17.04	1-1
1987-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 3-35	1486.95	1614.83	36.22%	63.22%	-22.60	1-2
1987-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-41	1464.35	1510.27	38.76%	60.66%	-18.63	1-3
1987-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1445.72	1429.75	47.47%	51.94%	-12.81	1-4
1987-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-20	1432.91	1516.96	42.21%	57.20%	+25.96	2-4
1987-11-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-23	1458.87	1423.01	50.32%	49.08%	+12.09	3-4
1987-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-27	1470.96	1627.31	32.54%	66.93%	+14.72	4-4
1987-11-15	New York Giants	L 17-20	1485.68	1520.46	49.23%	50.17%	-9.39	4-5
1987-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-31	1476.29	1410.38	63.36%	36.08%	-24.15	4-6
1987-11-29	@ New England Patriots	W 34-31	1452.14	1522.96	35.43%	64.02%	+12.20	5-6
1987-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 20-23	1464.34	1508.74	38.97%	60.45%	-7.44	5-7
1987-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 10-28	1456.90	1515.24	45.85%	53.55%	-21.44	5-8
1987-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 38-27	1435.46	1488.15	37.84%	61.59%	+22.47	6-8
1987-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1457.93	1463.77	53.39%	46.01%	+16.04	7-8
1987-09-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-17	1492.57	1562.54	44.20%	55.21%	+21.92	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-34	1514.49	1519.25	44.50%	54.90%	-24.03	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-12	1490.46	1442.44	52.07%	47.33%	+20.86	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1511.32	1470.61	51.02%	48.38%	-17.77	2-2
1987-10-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-7	1493.55	1458.53	59.16%	40.26%	+16.61	3-2
1987-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1510.16	1497.52	56.02%	43.39%	+8.28	4-2
1987-11-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-35	1518.44	1522.27	44.64%	54.77%	-16.32	4-3
1987-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1502.12	1410.77	58.23%	41.19%	+4.54	5-3
1987-11-15	Houston Oilers	L 3-23	1506.66	1494.14	56.00%	43.40%	-27.57	5-4
1987-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-16	1479.09	1479.47	45.13%	54.28%	+22.36	6-4
1987-11-29	New Orleans Saints	L 16-20	1501.45	1569.96	44.40%	55.00%	-9.79	6-5
1987-12-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-9	1491.66	1570.22	42.98%	56.43%	+12.43	7-5
1987-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-16	1504.09	1483.91	48.07%	51.33%	+11.31	8-5
1987-12-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-24	1515.40	1477.25	50.65%	48.75%	-15.79	8-6
1987-12-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-19	1499.61	1621.08	37.07%	62.36%	-10.01	8-7
1987-09-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-20	1477.56	1503.61	41.51%	57.91%	-12.10	0-1
1987-09-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-24	1465.46	1454.55	55.78%	43.63%	+9.62	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-9	1475.08	1519.83	38.92%	60.50%	+6.65	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1481.73	1425.61	53.23%	46.17%	+10.18	3-1
1987-10-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 23-17	1491.91	1539.95	38.47%	60.95%	+16.43	4-1
1987-10-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 42-21	1508.34	1431.75	64.77%	34.67%	+17.52	5-1
1987-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-24	1525.86	1591.83	44.76%	54.64%	+10.42	6-1
1987-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-13	1536.28	1481.34	53.07%	46.34%	+8.85	7-1
1987-11-15	Los Angeles Raiders	W 16-14	1545.13	1474.12	64.04%	35.40%	+5.52	8-1
1987-11-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-34	1550.65	1584.37	40.44%	58.98%	-24.83	8-2
1987-11-29	Denver Broncos	L 17-31	1525.82	1558.63	49.52%	49.89%	-20.41	8-3
1987-12-06	@ Houston Oilers	L 18-33	1505.41	1468.99	50.41%	48.99%	-21.50	8-4
1987-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1483.91	1504.09	51.33%	48.07%	-11.31	8-5
1987-12-20	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-20	1472.60	1480.44	53.10%	46.30%	-21.08	8-6
1987-12-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-24	1451.52	1581.83	28.06%	71.44%	-15.16	8-7
1987-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-30	1562.54	1492.57	55.21%	44.20%	-21.92	0-1
1987-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-26	1540.62	1525.56	47.34%	52.07%	+5.74	1-1
1987-10-05	@ New York Giants	W 41-21	1546.36	1572.39	41.51%	57.91%	+28.50	2-1
1987-10-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 25-17	1574.86	1421.58	66.54%	32.92%	+10.27	3-1
1987-10-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-28	1585.13	1449.87	72.02%	27.49%	+7.43	4-1
1987-10-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-22	1592.56	1504.36	57.78%	41.63%	+6.49	5-1
1987-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-10	1599.05	1463.57	64.23%	35.22%	+17.80	6-1
1987-11-08	Houston Oilers	W 27-20	1616.85	1502.89	69.49%	29.99%	+8.75	7-1
1987-11-15	New Orleans Saints	L 24-26	1625.60	1546.11	65.15%	34.30%	-10.14	7-2
1987-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1615.46	1428.98	70.63%	28.86%	+11.91	8-2
1987-11-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-24	1627.37	1628.52	54.06%	45.34%	+18.70	9-2
1987-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-12	1646.07	1436.05	73.35%	26.17%	+9.57	10-2
1987-12-14	Chicago Bears	W 41-0	1655.64	1668.04	52.45%	46.95%	+33.13	11-2
1987-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-7	1688.77	1344.93	89.47%	10.29%	+5.99	12-2
1987-12-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 48-0	1694.76	1495.45	78.79%	20.80%	+15.88	13-2
1987-09-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-40	1552.21	1537.73	47.25%	52.15%	-24.97	0-1
1987-09-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-14	1527.24	1515.72	55.86%	43.55%	+25.85	1-1
1987-10-04	Miami Dolphins	W 24-20	1553.09	1532.39	57.16%	42.25%	+9.32	2-1
1987-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1562.41	1513.17	61.12%	38.31%	-17.79	2-2
1987-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-14	1544.62	1419.16	62.90%	36.54%	+19.32	3-2
1987-10-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 35-13	1563.94	1523.52	50.98%	48.42%	+25.02	4-2
1987-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-17	1588.96	1506.49	65.54%	33.91%	+12.41	5-2
1987-11-09	@ New York Jets	L 14-30	1601.37	1493.97	60.45%	38.98%	-26.61	5-3
1987-11-15	Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1574.76	1428.66	73.25%	26.27%	+9.61	6-3
1987-11-22	San Diego Chargers	W 34-3	1584.37	1550.65	58.98%	40.44%	+24.83	7-3
1987-11-30	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-37	1609.20	1456.99	73.93%	25.60%	-38.98	7-4
1987-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1570.22	1491.66	56.43%	42.98%	-12.43	7-5
1987-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 28-21	1557.79	1592.12	49.30%	50.10%	+14.61	8-5
1987-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-21	1572.40	1634.91	36.53%	62.91%	+24.95	9-5
1987-12-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-41	1597.35	1392.39	72.78%	26.73%	-36.67	9-6
1987-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-13	1434.97	1493.74	45.79%	53.61%	+19.58	1-0
1987-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-28	1454.55	1465.46	43.63%	55.78%	-9.62	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1444.93	1561.68	29.65%	69.83%	-8.66	1-2
1987-10-11	New Orleans Saints	W 24-19	1436.27	1506.33	44.18%	55.22%	+13.60	2-2
1987-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-34	1449.87	1585.13	27.49%	72.02%	-7.43	2-3
1987-10-25	@ New York Giants	L 7-30	1442.44	1503.40	36.73%	62.70%	-19.43	2-4
1987-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1423.01	1458.87	49.08%	50.32%	-12.09	2-5
1987-11-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-28	1410.92	1448.15	48.88%	50.52%	+9.64	3-5
1987-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1420.56	1426.38	53.39%	46.01%	-10.18	3-6
1987-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-19	1410.38	1476.29	36.08%	63.36%	+24.15	4-6
1987-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-21	1434.53	1352.83	56.87%	42.54%	+16.91	5-6
1987-12-06	Washington Redskins	L 17-34	1451.44	1608.75	32.41%	67.05%	-14.74	5-7
1987-12-13	New York Giants	W 27-24	1436.70	1516.18	42.85%	56.56%	+10.78	6-7
1987-12-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1447.48	1363.87	57.14%	42.27%	+19.22	7-7
1987-12-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-21	1466.70	1462.66	45.76%	53.65%	-11.28	7-8
1987-09-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 48-10	1384.31	1474.83	41.31%	58.11%	+39.43	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-20	1423.74	1604.55	22.60%	76.96%	-10.28	1-1
1987-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1413.46	1420.08	44.24%	55.17%	+12.15	2-1
1987-10-11	San Diego Chargers	L 13-17	1425.61	1481.73	46.17%	53.23%	-10.17	2-2
1987-10-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-10	1415.44	1511.06	40.60%	58.82%	+20.47	3-2
1987-10-25	Chicago Bears	L 26-27	1435.91	1640.75	26.75%	72.77%	-2.95	3-3
1987-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-17	1432.96	1447.86	43.07%	56.34%	+15.19	4-3
1987-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-31	1448.15	1410.92	50.52%	48.88%	-9.64	4-4
1987-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-23	1438.51	1510.41	35.29%	64.16%	-9.53	4-5
1987-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-24	1428.98	1615.46	28.86%	70.63%	-11.91	4-6
1987-11-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-35	1417.07	1453.50	40.06%	59.36%	-24.99	4-7
1987-12-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 34-44	1392.08	1579.75	21.92%	77.65%	-7.64	4-8
1987-12-13	Detroit Lions	L 10-20	1384.44	1349.80	59.11%	40.31%	-20.57	4-9
1987-12-20	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-31	1363.87	1447.48	42.27%	57.14%	-19.22	4-10
1987-12-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-24	1344.65	1501.52	25.09%	74.44%	-11.74	4-11
1987-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-24	1556.52	1482.10	64.49%	34.96%	+12.19	1-0
1987-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-21	1568.71	1435.41	63.94%	35.50%	-7.03	1-1
1987-10-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-21	1561.68	1444.93	69.83%	29.65%	+8.65	2-1
1987-10-11	@ New York Giants	W 38-12	1570.33	1543.89	48.97%	50.43%	+28.33	3-1
1987-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 13-7	1598.66	1528.90	55.18%	44.23%	+11.94	4-1
1987-10-25	New York Jets	W 17-16	1610.60	1512.29	67.56%	31.91%	+3.52	5-1
1987-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1614.12	1409.24	72.77%	26.74%	+13.19	6-1
1987-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-31	1627.31	1470.96	66.93%	32.54%	-14.73	6-2
1987-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1612.58	1399.70	80.06%	19.55%	+5.70	7-2
1987-11-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 26-30	1618.28	1436.57	77.05%	22.51%	-16.93	7-3
1987-11-29	New York Giants	W 23-19	1601.35	1516.14	65.89%	33.56%	+7.40	8-3
1987-12-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1608.75	1451.44	67.05%	32.41%	+14.74	9-3
1987-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1623.49	1447.76	76.44%	23.11%	+5.10	10-3
1987-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-23	1628.59	1536.68	58.30%	41.11%	-9.08	10-4
1987-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1619.51	1522.13	59.07%	40.35%	+7.71	11-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1988-01-10	Washington Redskins	L 17-21	1616.91	1627.22	53.05%	46.95%	-11.62	0-1
1988-01-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-21	1631.10	1513.26	70.26%	29.74%	+13.43	1-0
1988-01-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 33-38	1644.53	1615.09	49.70%	50.30%	-12.17	1-1
1988-01-10	Houston Oilers	W 34-10	1596.99	1511.26	66.26%	33.74%	+18.10	1-0
1988-01-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-33	1615.09	1644.53	50.30%	49.70%	+12.17	2-0
1988-01-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-42	1627.26	1649.90	46.75%	53.25%	-28.95	2-1
1988-01-03	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1501.01	1560.68	45.96%	54.04%	+10.25	1-0
1988-01-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-34	1511.26	1596.99	33.74%	66.26%	-18.10	1-1
1988-01-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-38	1513.26	1631.10	29.74%	70.26%	-13.43	0-1
1988-01-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 44-10	1514.42	1622.65	30.91%	69.09%	+44.12	1-0
1988-01-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 36-24	1558.54	1710.64	25.79%	74.21%	+28.15	2-0
1988-01-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1586.69	1638.84	38.19%	61.81%	-11.07	2-1
1988-01-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-44	1622.65	1514.42	69.09%	30.91%	-44.11	0-1
1988-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-36	1710.64	1558.54	74.21%	25.79%	-28.15	0-1
1988-01-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1560.68	1501.01	54.04%	45.96%	-10.25	0-1
1988-01-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1627.22	1616.91	46.95%	53.05%	+11.62	1-0
1988-01-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-10	1638.84	1586.69	61.81%	38.19%	+11.06	2-0
1988-01-31	Denver Broncos	W 42-10	1649.90	1627.26	53.25%	46.75%	+28.96	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1987-11-23	22.51%	Los Angeles Rams	1436.57	30	@ Washington Redskins	1618.28	26
2	1987-10-18	24.79%	New Orleans Saints	1492.74	19	@ Chicago Bears	1652.37	17
3	1987-11-30	25.60%	Los Angeles Raiders	1456.99	37	@ Seattle Seahawks	1609.20	14
4	1988-01-09 *	25.79%	Minnesota Vikings	1558.54	36	@ San Francisco 49ers	1710.64	24
5	1987-12-27	26.73%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1392.39	41	Seattle Seahawks	1597.35	20
6	1987-10-25	26.87%	Buffalo Bills	1395.40	34	@ Miami Dolphins	1536.10	31
7	1987-12-06	27.15%	Atlanta Falcons	1335.92	21	@ Dallas Cowboys	1474.15	10
8	1987-10-04	28.52%	Green Bay Packers	1420.32	23	@ Minnesota Vikings	1546.66	16
9	1987-11-22	29.02%	Buffalo Bills	1409.56	17	@ New York Jets	1531.68	14
10	1987-10-04	30.32%	Houston Oilers	1450.61	40	@ Denver Broncos	1561.85	10
11	1987-09-20	30.60%	Dallas Cowboys	1474.16	16	@ New York Giants	1583.10	14
12	1988-01-03 *	30.91%	Minnesota Vikings	1514.42	44	@ New Orleans Saints	1622.65	10
13	1987-12-06	31.04%	Indianapolis Colts	1504.46	9	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1609.82	7
14	1987-11-08	31.94%	@ Buffalo Bills	1396.05	21	Denver Broncos	1557.13	14
15	1987-11-08	32.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1470.96	31	Washington Redskins	1627.31	27
16	1987-11-15	34.30%	New Orleans Saints	1546.11	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1625.60	24
17	1987-11-15	34.43%	Indianapolis Colts	1472.50	40	@ Miami Dolphins	1550.99	21
18	1987-12-13	35.13%	Buffalo Bills	1441.97	27	@ Indianapolis Colts	1515.10	3
19	1987-12-21	35.17%	Dallas Cowboys	1442.66	29	@ Los Angeles Rams	1515.45	21
20	1987-11-29	35.43%	Philadelphia Eagles	1452.14	34	@ New England Patriots	1522.96	31
21	1987-09-20	35.50%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1435.41	21	Washington Redskins	1568.71	20
22	1987-10-11	35.62%	Houston Oilers	1492.27	15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1561.65	10
23	1987-10-18	35.63%	@ Buffalo Bills	1383.24	6	New York Giants	1515.56	3
24	1987-12-13	35.63%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1379.51	16	Los Angeles Raiders	1511.80	10
25	1987-11-08	35.96%	@ Detroit Lions	1377.61	27	Dallas Cowboys	1507.44	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1988-01-03 *	44.12	Minnesota Vikings	44	1514.42	30.91%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1622.65	69.09%
2	1987-10-04	41.66	Houston Oilers	40	1450.61	30.32%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1561.85	69.16%
3	1987-10-04	41.25	Indianapolis Colts	47	1402.42	40.88%	@ Buffalo Bills	6	1432.93	58.53%
4	1987-09-13	39.43	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	1384.31	41.31%	Atlanta Falcons	10	1474.83	58.11%
5	1987-11-30	38.98	Los Angeles Raiders	37	1456.99	25.60%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1609.20	73.93%
6	1987-12-27	36.67	@ Kansas City Chiefs	41	1392.39	26.73%	Seattle Seahawks	20	1597.35	72.78%
7	1987-11-29	34.83	@ Buffalo Bills	27	1422.98	38.52%	Miami Dolphins	0	1533.71	60.91%
8	1987-12-13	34.67	Buffalo Bills	27	1441.97	35.13%	@ Indianapolis Colts	3	1515.10	64.32%
9	1987-10-18	33.44	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1545.95	47.32%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	0	1530.96	52.08%
10	1987-12-14	33.13	@ San Francisco 49ers	41	1655.64	52.45%	Chicago Bears	0	1668.04	46.95%
11	1987-11-15	31.18	Indianapolis Colts	40	1472.50	34.43%	@ Miami Dolphins	21	1550.99	65.02%
12	1988-01-31 *	28.96	@ Washington Redskins	42	1649.90	53.25%	Denver Broncos	10	1627.26	46.75%
13	1987-11-01	28.86	New Orleans Saints	38	1497.87	56.95%	@ Atlanta Falcons	0	1415.64	42.47%
14	1987-10-05	28.50	San Francisco 49ers	41	1546.36	41.51%	@ New York Giants	21	1572.39	57.91%
15	1987-10-11	28.33	Washington Redskins	38	1570.33	48.97%	@ New York Giants	12	1543.89	50.43%
16	1988-01-09 *	28.15	Minnesota Vikings	36	1558.54	25.79%	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1710.64	74.21%
17	1987-11-15	27.57	Houston Oilers	23	1494.14	43.40%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1506.66	56.00%
18	1987-10-04	27.44	@ New Orleans Saints	37	1478.90	51.48%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1498.05	47.92%
19	1987-10-11	27.23	@ Miami Dolphins	42	1523.08	61.32%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1472.31	38.11%
20	1987-11-22	27.12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	40	1601.40	56.59%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1521.71	42.82%
21	1987-11-09	26.61	@ New York Jets	30	1493.97	38.98%	Seattle Seahawks	14	1601.37	60.45%
22	1987-12-06	26.39	Atlanta Falcons	21	1335.92	27.15%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1474.15	72.36%
23	1987-10-25	25.96	@ Philadelphia Eagles	37	1432.91	42.21%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1516.96	57.20%
24	1987-09-20	25.85	@ Seattle Seahawks	43	1527.24	55.86%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1515.72	43.55%
25	1987-11-29	25.60	@ Indianapolis Colts	51	1478.86	51.97%	Houston Oilers	27	1494.59	47.43%