1986 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

New York Giants

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1956

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1977

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

3.78 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.22 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3.17 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.17 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	12	4	.750	-	391	310	+81	8.81	+3.19
2	Cincinnati Bengals	10	6	.625	2	409	394	+15	8.37	+1.63
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	10	.375	6	307	336	-29	7.18	-1.18
4	Houston Oilers	5	11	.312	7	274	329	-55	5.55	-0.55

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	11	5	.688	-	412	307	+105	10.54	+0.46
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	364	386	-22	9.45	+0.55
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	3	430	405	+25	9.04	-1.04
4	Buffalo Bills	4	12	.250	7	287	348	-61	5.63	-1.63
5	Indianapolis Colts	3	13	.188	8	229	400	-171	4.73	-1.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	11	5	.688	-	378	327	+51	9.77	+1.23
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	358	326	+32	8.35	+1.65
3	Seattle Seahawks	10	6	.625	1	366	293	+73	8.39	+1.61
4	Los Angeles Raiders	8	8	.500	3	323	346	-23	9.11	-1.11
5	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	7	335	396	-61	6.76	-2.76

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	14	2	.875	-	352	187	+165	12.96	+1.04
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	7	.562	5	398	273	+125	8.22	+0.78
3	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	9	277	326	-49	7.25	-2.25
4	Green Bay Packers	4	12	.250	10	254	418	-164	6.05	-2.05
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	12	239	473	-234	5.17	-3.17

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	14	2	0	.875	-	371	236	+135	10.22	+3.78
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	12	4	0	.750	2	368	296	+72	9.50	+2.50
3	Dallas Cowboys	7	9	0	.438	7	346	337	+9	8.38	-1.38
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	10	1	.344	8.5	256	312	-56	6.46	-0.96
5	St. Louis Cardinals	4	11	1	.281	9.5	218	351	-133	5.28	-0.78

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	5	1	.656	-	374	247	+127	10.86	-0.36
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	0.5	309	267	+42	8.85	+1.15
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	8	1	.469	3	280	280	0	6.71	+0.79
4	New Orleans Saints	7	9	0	.438	3.5	288	287	+1	6.41	+0.59

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 35

Kansas City Chiefs 15

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Cleveland Browns (1st) 23

New York Jets 20

Jan 3

Denver Broncos 22

New England Patriots 17

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 23

Cleveland Browns (1st) 20

Jan 11

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 19

Los Angeles Rams 7

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Washington Redskins 27

Chicago Bears 13

Jan 3

New York Giants 49

San Francisco 49ers 3

Jan 4

Conference Championship

New York Giants 17

Washington Redskins 0

Jan 11

Super Bowl

New York Giants 39

Denver Broncos 20

Jan 25

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1721	14	12.96	+1.04	84.79%	6	10	12	13	14	15	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1697	14	10.22	+3.78	99.44%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1657	10.5	10.86	-0.36	42.57%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1619	12	9.50	+2.50	95.20%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1614	11	10.54	+0.46	70.79%	2	7	9	11	12	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1614	10	8.39	+1.61	86.78%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1590	12	8.81	+3.19	97.82%	0	6	7	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1587	11	9.77	+1.23	82.69%	2	7	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1568	10	8.85	+1.15	81.63%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1562	8	9.04	-1.04	40.30%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1549	10	8.37	+1.63	87.82%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1535	10	8.35	+1.65	87.80%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1535	9	8.22	+0.78	76.51%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1516	8	9.11	-1.11	39.12%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1496	10	9.45	+0.55	72.56%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1484	7	8.38	-1.38	33.85%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1482	6	7.18	-1.18	38.35%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1458	5.5	6.46	-0.96	32.65%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1452	7	6.41	+0.59	73.72%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1440	4	6.76	-2.76	12.58%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1440	7.5	6.71	+0.79	68.11%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1380	5	7.25	-2.25	19.14%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1377	5	5.55	-0.55	51.88%	0	3	4	5	7	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1375	4	6.05	-2.05	21.00%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1364	4.5	5.28	-0.78	35.71%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1333	3	4.73	-1.73	26.39%	0	2	3	5	6	8	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1317	4	5.63	-1.63	29.35%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1238	2	5.17	-3.17	6.87%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	4-0 (3.2 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	-	2-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.45%	0.67%	1.79%	1.12%	1.56%	0.67%	0.22%	6.47%
7–13	0.67%	4.91%	4.91%	5.36%	3.79%	0.67%	0.67%	20.98%
14–20	1.79%	4.91%	6.25%	7.81%	2.68%	1.34%	0.67%	25.45%
21–27	1.12%	5.36%	7.81%	3.12%	3.12%	—	0.67%	21.21%
28–34	1.56%	3.79%	2.68%	3.12%	4.02%	1.34%	0.22%	16.74%
35–41	0.67%	0.67%	1.34%	—	1.34%	0.89%	0.67%	5.58%
42+	0.22%	0.67%	0.67%	0.67%	0.22%	0.67%	0.45%	3.57%
Total	6.47%	20.98%	25.45%	21.21%	16.74%	5.58%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.52	20.52	+0.00
SD	10.62	10.62	15.21
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	17.50	+0.00
SD	11.16	7.88	12.26
CV	0.64	0.45	—
Max	37	35	+21
Min	0	6	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	21.75	-3.81
SD	7.51	8.34	7.78
CV	0.42	0.38	—
Max	33	36	+11
Min	3	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	31.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	62.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	11.69	+10.31
SD	12.25	7.61	13.48
CV	0.56	0.65	—
Max	48	31	+37
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	18.75%	—	—	25.00%	—	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.56	24.62	+0.94
SD	12.41	10.28	19.30
CV	0.49	0.42	—
Max	52	44	+31
Min	3	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.44	19.38	+5.06
SD	9.40	9.81	13.19
CV	0.38	0.51	—
Max	47	41	+31
Min	13	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	21.06	+0.56
SD	9.50	11.16	17.40
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	37	41	+31
Min	10	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.62	20.44	+3.19
SD	10.64	10.87	15.04
CV	0.45	0.53	—
Max	38	41	+26
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.31	20.38	-3.06
SD	10.08	8.88	10.62
CV	0.58	0.44	—
Max	40	44	+21
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.88	26.12	-10.25
SD	11.36	13.26	16.47
CV	0.72	0.51	—
Max	44	55	+24
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	20.56	-3.44
SD	9.67	8.37	14.18
CV	0.56	0.41	—
Max	32	31	+28
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.31	25.00	-10.69
SD	8.15	6.37	10.93
CV	0.57	0.25	—
Max	30	35	+10
Min	3	14	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	20.38	+2.00
SD	8.74	8.90	12.22
CV	0.39	0.44	—
Max	42	41	+27
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.19	21.62	-1.44
SD	10.70	9.71	11.58
CV	0.53	0.45	—
Max	37	38	+13
Min	0	10	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.31	16.69	+2.62
SD	7.88	10.62	10.25
CV	0.41	0.64	—
Max	31	37	+19
Min	0	3	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.88	25.31	+1.56
SD	10.76	13.87	17.45
CV	0.40	0.55	—
Max	45	51	+42
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	43.75%	6.25%	37.50%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.88	17.06	+7.81
SD	12.03	10.04	16.70
CV	0.48	0.59	—
Max	45	44	+35
Min	0	6	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.75	19.19	+6.56
SD	7.25	11.98	15.59
CV	0.28	0.62	—
Max	34	38	+34
Min	7	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	17.94	+0.06
SD	8.05	10.36	13.01
CV	0.45	0.58	—
Max	38	33	+31
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	56.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.19	14.75	+8.44
SD	10.45	7.26	10.73
CV	0.45	0.49	—
Max	55	31	+32
Min	12	3	-5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	25.00%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.75	24.12	-1.38
SD	13.08	14.68	19.56
CV	0.57	0.61	—
Max	51	52	+31
Min	3	7	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	25.00%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.00	19.50	-3.50
SD	8.66	10.75	14.34
CV	0.54	0.55	—
Max	34	41	+16
Min	3	0	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	21.00	-1.81
SD	12.09	9.62	17.35
CV	0.63	0.46	—
Max	45	37	+24
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	—	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	24.75	-3.81
SD	12.39	13.71	15.65
CV	0.59	0.55	—
Max	50	47	+27
Min	7	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	25.00%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	15.44	+7.94
SD	10.18	6.72	12.04
CV	0.44	0.44	—
Max	43	27	+26
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	18.31	+4.56
SD	12.20	10.93	19.89
CV	0.53	0.60	—
Max	41	38	+37
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.62	21.94	-8.31
SD	7.19	9.99	12.67
CV	0.53	0.46	—
Max	30	43	+11
Min	6	10	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	29.56	-14.62
SD	8.05	8.62	12.54
CV	0.54	0.29	—
Max	34	48	+6
Min	3	20	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	18.50	+4.50
SD	11.55	10.11	12.28
CV	0.50	0.55	—
Max	44	38	+27
Min	6	6	-24

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.60	+0.4
Allowed	0.45	-0.4
Differential	0.81	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	14	10.22	+3.78
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	12	8.81	+3.19
3	Washington Redskins	12	9.50	+2.50
4	Kansas City Chiefs	10	8.35	+1.65
5	Cincinnati Bengals	10	8.37	+1.63

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	5.17	-3.17
2	San Diego Chargers	4	6.76	-2.76
3	Detroit Lions	5	7.25	-2.25
4	Green Bay Packers	4	6.05	-2.05
5	Indianapolis Colts	3	4.73	-1.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Jets	9	Sep 21 – Nov 16	1 in 128
2	New York Giants	9	Oct 27 – Dec 20	1 in 69
3	Indianapolis Colts	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 50
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	Nov 23 – Dec 20	1 in 31
5	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	13	Sep 7 – Nov 30	1 in 123
2	Los Angeles Raiders	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 115
3	San Diego Chargers	8	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 90
4	New York Jets	5	Nov 24 – Dec 21	1 in 74
5	Green Bay Packers	6	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 52

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	44.41%	30.98%	17.82%	6.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	36.16%	33.35%	21.58%	8.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.60%	25.35%	36.04%	23.02%
Houston Oilers	3.83%	10.32%	24.57%	61.28%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New England Patriots	52.46%	28.63%	15.69%	2.78%	0.43%
New York Jets	26.46%	35.23%	29.49%	7.39%	1.42%
Miami Dolphins	19.98%	31.07%	36.09%	10.40%	2.46%
Buffalo Bills	0.82%	3.55%	12.31%	47.25%	36.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.27%	1.52%	6.41%	32.19%	59.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	40.19%	25.90%	17.44%	11.25%	5.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	25.65%	25.35%	21.65%	17.18%	10.17%
Seattle Seahawks	16.73%	20.96%	23.11%	22.60%	16.61%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.67%	19.46%	23.39%	24.63%	18.84%
San Diego Chargers	3.75%	8.33%	14.42%	24.34%	49.16%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	94.63%	4.72%	0.55%	0.09%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	3.50%	49.50%	27.63%	13.86%	5.50%
Detroit Lions	1.39%	28.38%	34.09%	23.43%	12.71%
Green Bay Packers	0.37%	11.98%	23.70%	34.94%	29.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.11%	5.41%	14.03%	27.68%	52.77%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	49.46%	29.26%	15.13%	5.09%	1.06%
Washington Redskins	31.96%	34.12%	22.30%	9.16%	2.47%
Dallas Cowboys	15.17%	25.58%	33.82%	18.73%	6.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.82%	8.52%	20.02%	41.01%	27.63%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.59%	2.52%	8.73%	26.01%	62.14%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	71.45%	21.60%	5.62%	1.32%
Los Angeles Rams	21.58%	47.02%	21.88%	9.52%
Atlanta Falcons	4.01%	16.98%	37.97%	41.04%
New Orleans Saints	2.96%	14.40%	34.52%	48.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
New England Patriots	28.63%	18.42%	13.01%	10.47%	8.47%	6.19%	5.05%	3.89%	2.50%	1.52%	0.98%	0.51%	0.25%	0.09%
Denver Broncos	17.22%	15.19%	12.26%	10.91%	9.36%	8.06%	7.04%	5.92%	4.75%	3.90%	2.58%	1.65%	0.90%	0.28%
New York Jets	12.42%	11.66%	11.54%	11.55%	10.97%	9.65%	8.64%	7.67%	5.87%	4.03%	2.88%	1.75%	0.93%	0.45%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.49%	10.76%	10.26%	10.15%	9.94%	9.16%	8.69%	7.94%	7.02%	6.17%	4.49%	3.20%	1.99%	0.75%
Miami Dolphins	8.80%	9.29%	9.79%	10.64%	10.47%	10.04%	9.72%	9.34%	7.29%	5.29%	4.11%	2.75%	1.55%	0.93%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.29%	9.53%	11.69%	10.59%	10.19%	10.41%	9.26%	8.10%	7.70%	5.82%	4.56%	3.18%	1.96%	0.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.57%	7.21%	9.26%	9.16%	9.53%	10.51%	9.86%	8.93%	9.05%	7.52%	6.02%	4.47%	2.91%	0.99%
Seattle Seahawks	5.73%	6.87%	7.54%	8.18%	8.72%	8.78%	9.38%	9.16%	8.85%	8.81%	6.79%	5.47%	4.05%	1.70%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.40%	6.08%	6.96%	7.93%	8.55%	8.97%	9.59%	9.50%	9.20%	9.05%	7.33%	6.09%	4.47%	1.89%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.36%	2.63%	3.91%	4.75%	5.93%	7.38%	8.32%	9.59%	11.40%	11.39%	11.12%	10.00%	8.34%	3.88%
San Diego Chargers	0.77%	1.59%	2.22%	3.17%	3.93%	5.01%	6.21%	7.73%	9.16%	11.81%	12.54%	13.84%	13.60%	8.43%
Houston Oilers	0.12%	0.35%	0.76%	1.16%	1.75%	2.72%	3.55%	5.02%	7.18%	9.37%	13.13%	16.98%	21.18%	16.75%
Buffalo Bills	0.18%	0.34%	0.61%	1.01%	1.62%	2.27%	3.28%	4.77%	6.56%	9.46%	13.39%	16.22%	17.77%	22.53%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.08%	0.19%	0.33%	0.57%	0.87%	1.43%	2.44%	3.48%	5.85%	10.10%	13.90%	20.11%	40.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Chicago Bears	66.19%	20.44%	8.07%	2.72%	1.32%	0.67%	0.29%	0.17%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
San Francisco 49ers	14.04%	27.92%	22.70%	12.45%	8.62%	5.68%	3.44%	2.20%	1.38%	0.77%	0.44%	0.25%	0.09%	0.02%
New York Giants	8.50%	20.02%	19.83%	15.35%	11.12%	8.24%	6.12%	4.10%	2.71%	1.85%	1.09%	0.63%	0.31%	0.12%
Washington Redskins	4.51%	12.71%	15.16%	15.68%	12.90%	10.65%	8.86%	6.56%	4.61%	3.35%	2.33%	1.46%	0.88%	0.35%
Los Angeles Rams	2.70%	7.18%	10.84%	13.83%	14.29%	13.04%	10.13%	8.26%	6.65%	4.84%	3.68%	2.62%	1.35%	0.59%
Dallas Cowboys	1.73%	5.04%	8.33%	10.83%	11.20%	11.52%	11.96%	10.40%	8.60%	7.02%	5.34%	3.88%	2.69%	1.45%
Minnesota Vikings	1.34%	2.98%	5.92%	10.86%	13.18%	13.51%	11.65%	10.46%	8.97%	6.88%	5.58%	4.20%	2.85%	1.61%
Detroit Lions	0.41%	1.05%	2.68%	5.70%	8.17%	9.78%	10.52%	11.32%	11.29%	10.13%	9.33%	8.09%	6.48%	5.07%
Atlanta Falcons	0.22%	0.92%	1.97%	3.54%	5.33%	6.96%	8.82%	10.81%	11.95%	11.55%	11.81%	11.70%	8.87%	5.56%
New Orleans Saints	0.12%	0.64%	1.58%	2.95%	4.29%	5.70%	7.65%	9.63%	11.28%	11.87%	12.55%	13.56%	10.75%	7.42%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.14%	0.71%	1.66%	2.95%	3.99%	5.39%	7.57%	8.60%	10.24%	12.71%	12.66%	12.19%	11.69%	9.50%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.21%	0.68%	1.75%	3.07%	4.67%	6.24%	8.25%	9.72%	11.28%	13.22%	13.73%	13.59%	13.52%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.01%	0.12%	0.35%	0.79%	1.21%	1.95%	3.40%	4.40%	6.11%	9.11%	11.11%	14.16%	21.36%	25.92%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.06%	0.22%	0.62%	1.30%	2.24%	3.35%	4.83%	6.42%	8.61%	10.85%	13.53%	19.08%	28.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Chicago Bears	54.04%	19.05%	10.09%	6.02%	3.54%	2.55%	1.40%	0.97%	0.65%	0.53%	0.30%	0.28%	0.17%	0.12%	0.09%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	10.18%	12.76%	13.96%	10.81%	10.00%	8.16%	6.14%	5.31%	4.12%	3.84%	2.82%	2.73%	1.93%	1.75%	1.17%	1.09%	0.80%	0.75%	0.49%	0.37%	0.26%	0.21%	0.14%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	8.17%	14.06%	10.58%	10.33%	8.11%	7.31%	6.30%	5.57%	4.91%	4.08%	3.67%	3.02%	2.70%	2.26%	2.05%	1.68%	1.24%	0.98%	0.79%	0.65%	0.47%	0.37%	0.24%	0.17%	0.12%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%
New York Giants	5.84%	8.30%	10.59%	9.02%	8.99%	8.06%	6.94%	6.44%	5.40%	4.99%	4.10%	3.86%	3.18%	2.90%	2.10%	2.08%	1.54%	1.38%	1.10%	0.94%	0.65%	0.53%	0.40%	0.31%	0.15%	0.11%	0.08%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	4.05%	8.60%	7.89%	8.34%	7.36%	6.67%	6.52%	5.62%	5.77%	4.62%	4.85%	3.87%	4.06%	3.17%	3.40%	2.73%	2.51%	1.93%	1.98%	1.55%	1.21%	0.95%	0.79%	0.66%	0.43%	0.27%	0.15%	0.06%
Washington Redskins	2.92%	4.78%	6.80%	6.45%	7.34%	6.84%	7.16%	6.54%	6.03%	5.78%	5.13%	5.04%	4.41%	4.18%	3.37%	3.28%	2.56%	2.46%	1.88%	1.69%	1.38%	1.22%	0.89%	0.70%	0.51%	0.36%	0.19%	0.11%
New York Jets	2.74%	6.20%	5.96%	6.70%	6.39%	6.49%	6.39%	6.28%	6.12%	5.62%	5.53%	4.85%	4.55%	4.07%	4.03%	3.40%	2.96%	2.51%	2.12%	1.78%	1.43%	1.13%	0.88%	0.69%	0.49%	0.32%	0.24%	0.11%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.02%	4.76%	5.09%	5.93%	5.66%	5.83%	5.72%	5.54%	5.71%	5.01%	5.49%	4.69%	4.77%	4.23%	4.43%	3.89%	3.63%	3.06%	3.07%	2.52%	2.21%	1.81%	1.56%	1.19%	0.93%	0.67%	0.37%	0.20%
Miami Dolphins	1.76%	4.41%	4.50%	5.31%	5.37%	5.58%	5.75%	5.86%	5.66%	5.58%	5.58%	5.29%	5.05%	4.79%	4.81%	4.15%	3.64%	3.19%	2.78%	2.44%	2.04%	1.76%	1.40%	1.10%	0.86%	0.66%	0.45%	0.22%
Los Angeles Rams	1.71%	2.50%	4.08%	4.21%	5.30%	5.48%	5.98%	6.22%	6.14%	6.50%	5.49%	6.14%	4.99%	5.26%	4.01%	4.37%	3.67%	3.57%	2.73%	2.56%	2.21%	1.95%	1.52%	1.26%	0.86%	0.66%	0.42%	0.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.39%	3.06%	3.76%	5.25%	5.27%	6.42%	5.52%	6.07%	5.61%	5.87%	5.32%	5.36%	4.90%	4.90%	4.49%	3.82%	4.06%	3.42%	3.06%	2.68%	2.43%	1.95%	1.64%	1.29%	1.04%	0.77%	0.41%	0.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.92%	2.09%	2.84%	3.74%	4.26%	5.09%	4.84%	5.18%	5.16%	5.38%	5.41%	5.33%	5.39%	5.03%	4.78%	4.45%	4.63%	4.25%	3.72%	3.57%	3.18%	2.80%	2.25%	1.93%	1.48%	1.24%	0.67%	0.38%
Dallas Cowboys	0.98%	1.62%	2.76%	3.03%	4.17%	4.11%	4.94%	4.88%	5.36%	5.29%	5.30%	5.47%	5.63%	5.55%	4.99%	5.11%	4.57%	4.43%	3.79%	3.61%	3.09%	2.82%	2.23%	2.04%	1.59%	1.30%	0.86%	0.49%
Seattle Seahawks	1.00%	2.67%	3.17%	3.88%	4.07%	4.18%	4.61%	4.46%	5.00%	4.59%	5.27%	4.46%	5.24%	4.37%	5.28%	4.43%	4.75%	3.99%	4.42%	3.82%	3.29%	3.06%	2.59%	2.39%	1.91%	1.60%	0.92%	0.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.74%	2.11%	2.58%	3.47%	3.50%	4.11%	4.19%	4.66%	4.63%	4.80%	5.19%	4.96%	5.19%	4.81%	5.53%	4.80%	4.82%	4.03%	4.62%	3.95%	3.60%	3.08%	3.07%	2.38%	2.07%	1.51%	0.99%	0.60%
Minnesota Vikings	0.75%	1.08%	1.80%	2.21%	3.07%	3.63%	4.82%	5.07%	5.45%	6.07%	5.65%	6.34%	5.37%	5.88%	4.98%	5.28%	4.63%	4.77%	3.93%	3.66%	3.29%	2.91%	2.53%	2.19%	1.70%	1.34%	1.01%	0.56%
Detroit Lions	0.19%	0.36%	0.61%	0.90%	1.44%	1.72%	2.44%	2.90%	3.38%	3.90%	4.02%	4.75%	4.70%	5.16%	5.03%	5.63%	5.30%	5.86%	5.25%	5.42%	5.11%	5.02%	4.38%	4.38%	3.88%	3.26%	2.83%	2.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.21%	0.58%	0.92%	1.35%	1.65%	2.09%	2.36%	2.75%	3.14%	3.33%	3.90%	3.92%	4.57%	4.42%	5.12%	4.79%	5.82%	5.46%	5.72%	5.40%	5.50%	5.15%	4.99%	4.63%	4.13%	3.80%	2.50%	1.79%
Atlanta Falcons	0.11%	0.21%	0.44%	0.60%	0.92%	1.05%	1.52%	1.81%	2.16%	2.65%	2.83%	3.56%	3.74%	4.55%	4.40%	5.48%	5.17%	6.40%	5.50%	6.21%	5.94%	6.43%	5.84%	6.00%	5.26%	4.72%	3.72%	2.78%
San Diego Chargers	0.08%	0.33%	0.54%	0.86%	1.07%	1.26%	1.62%	1.78%	2.22%	2.23%	2.95%	2.75%	3.56%	3.43%	4.47%	4.19%	5.03%	4.78%	5.96%	5.80%	6.14%	6.09%	6.51%	6.34%	6.21%	5.81%	4.45%	3.54%
New Orleans Saints	0.05%	0.13%	0.34%	0.42%	0.69%	0.84%	1.29%	1.56%	1.74%	2.03%	2.37%	2.80%	3.15%	3.93%	3.89%	4.93%	4.95%	5.92%	5.47%	6.36%	6.13%	6.75%	6.31%	7.26%	6.04%	5.89%	4.58%	4.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.07%	0.15%	0.33%	0.44%	0.77%	0.91%	1.29%	1.41%	1.73%	2.10%	2.41%	2.75%	3.26%	3.60%	3.94%	4.45%	4.83%	5.31%	5.76%	6.30%	6.31%	6.66%	6.39%	6.67%	6.12%	6.24%	5.34%	4.49%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.05%	0.11%	0.19%	0.31%	0.41%	0.69%	0.94%	1.17%	1.57%	1.78%	2.33%	2.60%	3.20%	3.41%	4.13%	4.39%	5.09%	5.25%	6.07%	6.37%	6.88%	7.10%	7.41%	7.45%	7.24%	7.51%	6.31%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	0.17%	0.26%	0.39%	0.48%	0.68%	0.84%	0.98%	1.33%	1.48%	1.90%	2.04%	2.57%	2.70%	3.70%	3.83%	4.67%	4.96%	6.20%	6.58%	7.83%	8.27%	9.12%	10.57%	8.92%	9.40%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.06%	0.11%	0.19%	0.23%	0.36%	0.44%	0.57%	0.74%	1.00%	1.24%	1.36%	1.70%	2.02%	2.62%	2.71%	3.53%	3.67%	4.91%	5.03%	6.20%	6.71%	7.84%	7.80%	8.57%	8.95%	10.50%	10.95%
St. Louis Cardinals	<0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	0.12%	0.20%	0.28%	0.41%	0.45%	0.67%	0.82%	1.05%	1.25%	1.74%	1.90%	2.35%	2.68%	3.33%	4.06%	4.72%	5.33%	6.12%	7.12%	7.95%	10.21%	10.88%	12.76%	13.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.09%	0.13%	0.23%	0.32%	0.43%	0.70%	0.75%	1.08%	1.29%	1.71%	1.88%	2.57%	2.65%	3.45%	3.89%	4.57%	5.20%	5.90%	6.87%	7.60%	9.51%	10.39%	13.38%	15.32%
Indianapolis Colts	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%	0.14%	0.20%	0.28%	0.31%	0.49%	0.48%	0.77%	0.93%	1.26%	1.42%	1.89%	2.13%	3.06%	3.34%	4.82%	5.17%	6.69%	7.29%	9.30%	11.31%	16.68%	21.82%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	28.63%	17.00%	6.84%	14.87%	10.48%	22.18%
Denver Broncos	17.22%	15.85%	7.13%	12.41%	10.65%	36.74%
New York Jets	12.42%	9.54%	4.51%	16.39%	13.51%	43.63%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.49%	10.91%	5.25%	11.65%	11.22%	51.47%
Miami Dolphins	8.80%	7.56%	3.62%	14.15%	12.78%	53.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.29%	11.43%	26.70%	3.40%	5.69%	46.50%
Seattle Seahawks	5.73%	6.98%	4.02%	9.02%	9.50%	64.75%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.57%	8.70%	22.89%	3.16%	5.47%	55.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.40%	6.11%	3.16%	8.44%	9.70%	68.19%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.36%	3.28%	10.96%	2.02%	3.75%	78.63%
San Diego Chargers	0.77%	1.74%	1.25%	2.89%	4.07%	89.29%
Buffalo Bills	0.18%	0.34%	0.29%	0.92%	1.54%	96.72%
Houston Oilers	0.12%	0.47%	3.25%	0.40%	1.05%	94.72%
Indianapolis Colts	0.03%	0.11%	0.14%	0.27%	0.57%	98.88%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	66.19%	20.62%	7.83%	2.94%	1.21%	1.22%
San Francisco 49ers	14.04%	28.85%	28.57%	7.94%	6.99%	13.62%
New York Giants	8.50%	20.50%	20.46%	14.38%	10.94%	25.22%
Washington Redskins	4.51%	13.01%	14.44%	15.87%	13.04%	39.13%
Los Angeles Rams	2.70%	7.32%	11.56%	13.69%	13.94%	50.79%
Dallas Cowboys	1.73%	5.23%	8.21%	10.41%	11.34%	63.08%
Minnesota Vikings	1.34%	1.24%	0.92%	15.85%	14.62%	66.03%
Detroit Lions	0.41%	0.48%	0.50%	7.41%	8.90%	82.30%
Atlanta Falcons	0.22%	1.00%	2.79%	2.96%	5.14%	87.89%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.14%	0.77%	1.91%	2.60%	3.94%	90.64%
New Orleans Saints	0.12%	0.68%	2.15%	2.59%	4.13%	90.32%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.12%	0.18%	2.00%	3.25%	94.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.70%	1.36%	97.83%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.01%	0.14%	0.44%	0.66%	1.20%	97.55%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+6.25%

Clear Edge

52.68%0.89%46.43%

Elo Value

Home Edge

22 Elo

0.045 points per Elo point

021.7460

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.47 points

Lean Home

-8+0.98+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.5

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

14%

New York Giants, 2nd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

23.4%

Favored

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.5 · As Expected: 1.5 to 2.06 · Elevated: 2.06 to 2.81 · High Variance: 2.81 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.01 · Close: 4.01 to 5.43 · Off Target: 5.43 to 7.08 · Well Off Target: 7.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.48 · As Expected: 2.48 to 4.13 · More Than Expected: 4.13 to 6.61 · Far More Than Expected: 6.61 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.74 wins

As Expected

01.875

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.11

Pinpoint

04.7210

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.44%

New York Giants

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

6.87%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

03.310

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.99

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.29

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.87

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.71

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Chalk Held

0%35%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.21 · Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.

Probability calibration

0.60

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.32

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.072

Within Noise

00.1040.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	97.52%	97.52%	64.38%	40.47%	27.46%
New York Giants	67.77%	67.77%	38.54%	20.74%	13.67%
San Francisco 49ers	80.88%	80.88%	42.71%	20.08%	12.34%
New England Patriots	67.70%	67.70%	39.68%	23.15%	9.53%
Denver Broncos	53.32%	53.32%	28.88%	15.20%	5.92%
Washington Redskins	50.14%	50.14%	22.63%	9.24%	5.36%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.39%	49.39%	26.04%	13.57%	5.23%
Seattle Seahawks	27.84%	27.84%	16.03%	9.13%	3.82%
Miami Dolphins	34.01%	34.01%	17.37%	8.59%	3.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	40.33%	40.33%	18.81%	8.82%	2.91%
Los Angeles Rams	36.06%	36.06%	13.24%	4.60%	2.38%
Los Angeles Raiders	35.95%	35.95%	16.20%	6.88%	2.06%
New York Jets	39.11%	39.11%	16.41%	6.50%	1.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	22.32%	22.32%	10.28%	4.62%	1.49%
Minnesota Vikings	30.47%	17.37%	6.34%	1.90%	0.92%
Dallas Cowboys	24.10%	24.10%	6.61%	1.72%	0.72%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.90%	17.90%	6.81%	2.54%	0.67%
San Diego Chargers	6.95%	6.14%	2.10%	0.66%	0.15%
Atlanta Falcons	8.10%	6.77%	1.50%	0.34%	0.13%
New Orleans Saints	6.72%	5.42%	1.25%	0.31%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.54%	5.31%	1.25%	0.32%	0.12%
Houston Oilers	4.21%	4.21%	1.04%	0.25%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	16.31%	5.48%	1.02%	0.17%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	5.25%	1.72%	0.32%	0.06%	0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.86%	1.08%	0.17%	0.03%	<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.84%	0.45%	0.11%	0.02%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	2.47%	1.33%	0.26%	0.06%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.06%	0.38%	0.05%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		23.4%0.11%	21.8%0.09%	14.9%0.40%	50.0%0.01%	57.1%<0.01%	19.2%0.26%	21.5%0.42%	21.3%0.17%	16.4%0.22%	27.6%0.26%	24.7%0.08%	30.2%0.13%	18.2%0.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	76.6%0.11%		48.6%0.07%	44.2%1.09%	64.0%0.03%	86.1%0.04%	51.1%0.79%	54.1%1.11%	45.5%1.24%	37.9%1.28%	56.2%1.53%	58.3%0.13%	62.4%0.33%	38.2%0.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	78.2%0.09%	51.4%0.07%		48.3%1.25%	78.6%0.03%	85.7%0.05%	56.6%0.82%	60.7%1.21%	51.9%1.37%	48.7%1.25%	60.9%1.54%	63.2%0.13%	74.3%0.34%	44.0%0.94%
Denver Broncos	85.1%0.40%	55.8%1.09%	51.7%1.25%		79.7%0.19%	82.9%0.15%	58.7%1.50%	62.2%1.59%	54.8%4.54%	45.7%4.50%	63.7%5.17%	65.7%0.70%	73.7%0.59%	47.3%1.42%
Houston Oilers	50.0%0.01%	36.0%0.03%	21.4%0.03%	20.3%0.19%		100.0%<0.01%	28.4%0.11%	34.1%0.16%	24.4%0.21%	18.1%0.22%	30.3%0.26%	16.7%0.02%	42.3%0.05%	19.2%0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	42.9%<0.01%	13.9%0.04%	14.3%0.05%	17.1%0.15%	0.0%<0.01%		16.2%0.10%	21.7%0.15%	20.4%0.05%	5.8%0.05%	38.6%0.07%	39.1%0.02%	33.3%0.02%	23.0%0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	80.8%0.26%	48.9%0.79%	43.4%0.82%	41.3%1.50%	71.6%0.11%	83.8%0.10%		52.1%1.61%	46.4%3.45%	38.2%3.42%	54.6%3.95%	58.2%0.51%	65.1%0.36%	38.1%1.26%
Los Angeles Raiders	78.5%0.42%	45.9%1.11%	39.3%1.21%	37.8%1.59%	65.9%0.16%	78.3%0.15%	47.9%1.61%		42.7%4.28%	35.4%4.42%	52.8%5.02%	57.9%0.76%	60.5%0.53%	35.9%1.62%
Miami Dolphins	78.7%0.17%	54.5%1.24%	48.1%1.37%	45.2%4.54%	75.6%0.21%	79.6%0.05%	53.6%3.45%	57.3%4.28%		42.3%2.43%	59.6%3.68%	60.6%0.87%	66.0%1.20%	42.5%3.44%
New England Patriots	83.6%0.22%	62.1%1.28%	51.3%1.25%	54.3%4.50%	81.9%0.22%	94.2%0.05%	61.8%3.42%	64.6%4.42%	57.7%2.43%		67.3%2.04%	67.2%0.83%	75.5%1.23%	49.6%3.47%
New York Jets	72.4%0.26%	43.8%1.53%	39.1%1.54%	36.3%5.17%	69.7%0.26%	61.4%0.07%	45.4%3.95%	47.2%5.02%	40.4%3.68%	32.7%2.04%		55.2%0.95%	59.4%1.56%	34.0%3.88%
Pittsburgh Steelers	75.3%0.08%	41.7%0.13%	36.8%0.13%	34.3%0.70%	83.3%0.02%	60.9%0.02%	41.8%0.51%	42.1%0.76%	39.4%0.87%	32.8%0.83%	44.8%0.95%		52.5%0.20%	33.1%0.56%
San Diego Chargers	69.8%0.13%	37.6%0.33%	25.7%0.34%	26.3%0.59%	57.7%0.05%	66.7%0.02%	34.9%0.36%	39.5%0.53%	34.0%1.20%	24.5%1.23%	40.6%1.56%	47.5%0.20%		26.5%0.42%
Seattle Seahawks	81.8%0.31%	61.8%0.90%	56.0%0.94%	52.7%1.42%	80.8%0.16%	77.0%0.13%	61.9%1.26%	64.1%1.62%	57.5%3.44%	50.4%3.47%	66.0%3.88%	66.9%0.56%	73.5%0.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		12.5%0.20%	43.7%1.05%	58.4%0.65%	67.9%0.23%	29.8%0.59%	35.4%1.45%	50.8%0.13%	16.8%1.40%	53.7%0.32%	23.3%0.32%	68.2%0.07%	85.4%0.08%	24.1%1.61%
Chicago Bears	87.5%0.20%		79.9%0.59%	89.9%0.16%	89.3%0.06%	70.9%0.72%	70.1%0.13%	87.4%0.14%	52.2%0.71%	85.9%0.14%	60.6%0.43%	87.2%0.04%	90.9%0.02%	63.3%0.82%
Dallas Cowboys	56.3%1.05%	20.1%0.59%		65.4%2.11%	62.7%0.71%	37.2%4.03%	42.6%4.39%	57.4%0.99%	22.0%2.17%	56.1%0.42%	26.2%2.03%	71.8%0.13%	79.9%0.30%	31.1%2.82%
Detroit Lions	41.6%0.65%	10.1%0.16%	34.6%2.11%		55.3%0.18%	23.5%2.66%	28.7%1.37%	42.5%0.66%	13.1%2.98%	41.0%0.60%	17.7%1.30%	57.6%0.21%	66.1%0.06%	19.3%3.37%
Green Bay Packers	32.1%0.23%	10.7%0.06%	37.3%0.71%	44.7%0.18%		23.6%0.84%	29.1%0.37%	35.5%0.17%	14.9%0.91%	35.2%0.23%	18.0%0.43%	56.3%0.07%	70.0%0.02%	20.7%1.02%
Los Angeles Rams	70.2%0.59%	29.1%0.72%	62.8%4.03%	76.5%2.66%	76.4%0.84%		54.1%5.40%	65.0%0.53%	31.7%5.07%	64.8%1.20%	44.0%0.28%	77.3%0.31%	87.6%0.26%	41.8%5.74%
Minnesota Vikings	64.6%1.45%	29.9%0.13%	57.4%4.39%	71.3%1.37%	70.9%0.37%	45.9%5.40%		61.8%1.08%	28.3%5.40%	59.7%1.37%	32.5%2.91%	72.5%0.40%	83.7%0.13%	37.8%6.07%
New Orleans Saints	49.2%0.13%	12.6%0.14%	42.6%0.99%	57.5%0.66%	64.5%0.17%	35.0%0.53%	38.2%1.08%		21.1%1.16%	52.2%0.25%	20.2%0.25%	59.4%0.07%	80.8%0.07%	28.5%1.23%
New York Giants	83.2%1.40%	47.8%0.71%	78.0%2.17%	86.9%2.98%	85.1%0.91%	68.3%5.07%	71.7%5.40%	78.9%1.16%		78.5%0.60%	55.4%2.79%	89.0%0.18%	94.5%0.38%	61.5%1.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	46.3%0.32%	14.1%0.14%	43.9%0.42%	59.0%0.60%	64.8%0.23%	35.2%1.20%	40.3%1.37%	47.8%0.25%	21.5%0.60%		22.8%0.57%	62.5%0.02%	76.3%0.10%	27.1%0.71%
San Francisco 49ers	76.7%0.32%	39.4%0.43%	73.8%2.03%	82.3%1.30%	82.0%0.43%	56.0%0.28%	67.5%2.91%	79.8%0.25%	44.6%2.79%	77.2%0.57%		83.1%0.15%	93.3%0.17%	54.7%3.31%
St. Louis Cardinals	31.8%0.07%	12.8%0.04%	28.2%0.13%	42.4%0.21%	43.7%0.07%	22.7%0.31%	27.5%0.40%	40.6%0.07%	11.0%0.18%	37.5%0.02%	16.9%0.15%		68.8%0.02%	18.0%0.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14.6%0.08%	9.1%0.02%	20.1%0.30%	33.9%0.06%	30.0%0.02%	12.4%0.26%	16.3%0.13%	19.2%0.07%	5.5%0.38%	23.7%0.10%	6.7%0.17%	31.2%0.02%		8.5%0.45%
Washington Redskins	75.9%1.61%	36.7%0.82%	68.9%2.82%	80.7%3.37%	79.3%1.02%	58.2%5.74%	62.2%6.07%	71.5%1.23%	38.5%1.57%	72.9%0.71%	45.3%3.31%	82.0%0.19%	91.5%0.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		19.1%0.19%	14.6%0.21%	16.6%0.35%	64.3%0.01%		24.2%0.10%	24.9%0.19%				34.9%0.06%	17.9%0.04%	13.7%0.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	80.9%0.19%			43.4%7.57%		75.4%0.07%	50.8%2.99%	52.3%5.47%	46.4%4.83%	39.6%9.11%	55.6%5.53%		63.2%0.88%	39.5%3.69%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	85.4%0.21%			49.5%9.52%		80.3%0.06%	56.8%3.77%	58.1%6.41%	53.9%5.55%	44.9%11.12%	62.3%7.04%		70.4%0.97%	46.1%4.74%
Denver Broncos	83.4%0.35%	56.6%7.57%	50.5%9.52%		78.3%0.88%	86.1%0.11%			53.3%8.16%	46.2%14.71%	62.4%8.67%	64.1%3.35%
Houston Oilers	35.7%0.01%			21.7%0.88%		100.0%<0.01%	29.4%0.29%	28.7%0.57%	25.3%0.40%	20.1%0.99%	31.7%0.59%		28.6%0.07%	20.7%0.40%
Indianapolis Colts		24.6%0.07%	19.7%0.06%	13.9%0.11%	0.0%<0.01%		38.5%0.04%	32.9%0.08%				31.0%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%	21.4%0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	75.8%0.10%	49.2%2.99%	43.2%3.77%		70.6%0.29%	61.5%0.04%			45.8%3.30%	37.7%6.90%	55.4%3.65%	58.2%1.29%
Los Angeles Raiders	75.1%0.19%	47.7%5.47%	41.9%6.41%		71.3%0.57%	67.1%0.08%			44.0%4.87%	36.6%10.02%	52.9%5.79%	55.5%2.54%
Miami Dolphins		53.6%4.83%	46.1%5.55%	46.7%8.16%	74.7%0.40%		54.2%3.30%	56.0%4.87%				63.3%2.06%	66.8%0.79%	43.5%4.05%
New England Patriots		60.4%9.11%	55.1%11.12%	53.8%14.71%	79.9%0.99%		62.3%6.90%	63.4%10.02%				68.6%4.14%	73.3%2.02%	50.4%8.67%
New York Jets		44.4%5.53%	37.7%7.04%	37.6%8.67%	68.3%0.59%		44.6%3.65%	47.1%5.79%				53.6%2.43%	58.1%0.97%	32.0%4.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.1%0.06%			35.9%3.35%		69.0%0.03%	41.8%1.29%	44.5%2.54%	36.7%2.06%	31.4%4.14%	46.4%2.43%		49.6%0.38%	31.1%1.62%
San Diego Chargers	82.1%0.04%	36.8%0.88%	29.6%0.97%		71.4%0.07%	62.5%<0.01%			33.2%0.79%	26.7%2.02%	41.9%0.97%	50.4%0.38%
Seattle Seahawks	86.3%0.18%	60.5%3.69%	53.9%4.74%		79.3%0.40%	78.6%0.06%			56.5%4.05%	49.6%8.67%	68.0%4.44%	68.9%1.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		17.3%3.04%	46.2%0.51%	62.9%0.06%	57.1%0.03%		31.7%0.22%		17.9%1.67%	47.5%0.08%		52.9%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	23.6%1.14%
Chicago Bears	82.7%3.04%		80.7%10.47%			71.3%15.46%		81.4%2.68%	54.6%23.97%	82.9%2.65%	60.9%17.93%	89.7%0.55%		65.1%20.77%
Dallas Cowboys	53.8%0.51%	19.3%10.47%		61.8%0.31%	68.8%0.10%	37.5%2.57%	42.4%1.10%	52.8%0.42%			27.8%8.61%		65.4%0.03%
Detroit Lions	37.1%0.06%		38.2%0.31%			24.5%0.41%		33.3%0.05%	12.5%1.55%	39.6%0.05%	16.9%2.17%	64.7%0.02%		19.4%0.86%
Green Bay Packers	42.9%0.03%		31.2%0.10%			22.7%0.16%		50.0%<0.01%	12.9%0.49%	33.3%0.01%	17.3%0.66%	33.3%<0.01%		20.1%0.26%
Los Angeles Rams		28.7%15.46%	62.5%2.57%	75.5%0.41%	77.3%0.16%		52.0%1.56%		32.4%9.24%	66.8%0.47%		70.3%0.09%	60.0%0.03%	42.3%6.07%
Minnesota Vikings	68.3%0.22%		57.6%1.10%			48.0%1.56%		67.7%0.12%	27.9%4.70%	58.5%0.18%	33.8%6.85%	65.6%0.03%		37.2%2.61%
New Orleans Saints		18.6%2.68%	47.2%0.42%	66.7%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%		32.3%0.12%		17.4%1.24%	41.4%0.07%		57.1%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	26.9%0.81%
New York Giants	82.1%1.67%	45.4%23.97%		87.5%1.55%	87.1%0.49%	67.6%9.24%	72.1%4.70%	82.6%1.24%			55.4%24.81%		91.7%0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	52.5%0.08%	17.1%2.65%		60.4%0.05%	66.7%0.01%	33.2%0.47%	41.5%0.18%	58.6%0.07%			24.4%1.80%		100.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		39.1%17.93%	72.2%8.61%	83.1%2.17%	82.7%0.66%		66.2%6.85%		44.6%24.81%	75.6%1.80%		84.8%0.35%	91.8%0.15%	55.5%17.56%
St. Louis Cardinals	47.1%0.02%	10.3%0.55%		35.3%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	29.7%0.09%	34.4%0.03%	42.9%0.02%			15.2%0.35%		0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.0%<0.01%		34.6%0.03%			40.0%0.03%		75.0%<0.01%	8.3%0.11%	0.0%<0.01%	8.2%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%		8.3%0.06%
Washington Redskins	76.4%1.14%	34.9%20.77%		80.6%0.86%	79.9%0.26%	57.7%6.07%	62.8%2.61%	73.1%0.81%			44.5%17.56%		91.7%0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		32.1%0.03%	22.5%0.04%	26.9%0.03%	60.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	29.4%0.02%	13.6%0.02%	20.4%0.05%	26.3%0.02%	58.3%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	4.3%0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	67.9%0.03%		44.8%1.71%	43.9%3.29%	68.8%0.03%	91.7%0.01%	52.7%1.11%	54.3%1.70%	48.5%2.08%	41.0%4.86%	56.9%1.69%	58.4%0.33%	66.2%0.27%	42.4%1.70%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	77.5%0.04%	55.2%1.71%		49.7%4.69%	80.9%0.05%	81.0%0.02%	58.8%1.57%	60.4%2.37%	52.6%2.54%	45.5%7.11%	61.6%2.47%	67.5%0.50%	69.3%0.29%	45.4%2.70%
Denver Broncos	73.1%0.03%	56.1%3.29%	50.3%4.69%		80.5%0.19%	76.5%0.02%	55.8%1.81%	57.9%3.06%	51.0%2.33%	45.8%6.72%	61.3%2.26%	64.4%1.14%	70.7%0.35%	46.7%2.99%
Houston Oilers	40.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.03%	19.1%0.05%	19.5%0.19%		100.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.05%	24.3%0.10%	23.4%0.09%	20.6%0.27%	30.8%0.09%	66.7%0.01%	41.7%0.01%	25.8%0.12%
Indianapolis Colts	0.0%<0.01%	8.3%0.01%	19.0%0.02%	23.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		16.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%	18.2%0.02%	30.0%0.01%			33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	100.0%<0.01%	47.3%1.11%	41.2%1.57%	44.2%1.81%	66.7%0.05%	83.3%<0.01%		52.5%0.85%	47.7%0.68%	39.0%2.17%	50.3%0.69%	57.8%0.42%	67.7%0.10%	40.0%0.82%
Los Angeles Raiders	70.6%0.02%	45.7%1.70%	39.6%2.37%	42.1%3.06%	75.7%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	47.5%0.85%		44.3%1.14%	36.6%3.60%	53.9%1.19%	54.1%0.59%	68.0%0.15%	34.6%1.42%
Miami Dolphins	86.4%0.02%	51.5%2.08%	47.4%2.54%	49.0%2.33%	76.6%0.09%	81.8%0.01%	52.3%0.68%	55.7%1.14%		44.0%4.90%	57.9%1.55%	61.5%0.73%	62.8%0.14%	42.4%1.14%
New England Patriots	79.6%0.05%	59.0%4.86%	54.5%7.11%	54.2%6.72%	79.4%0.27%	81.8%0.02%	61.0%2.17%	63.4%3.60%	56.0%4.90%		66.3%4.62%	67.2%1.72%	73.1%0.44%	50.1%3.19%
New York Jets	73.7%0.02%	43.1%1.69%	38.4%2.47%	38.7%2.26%	69.2%0.09%	70.0%0.01%	49.7%0.69%	46.1%1.19%	42.1%1.55%	33.7%4.62%		53.2%0.60%	65.4%0.13%	33.0%1.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.7%0.01%	41.6%0.33%	32.5%0.50%	35.6%1.14%	33.3%0.01%		42.2%0.42%	45.9%0.59%	38.5%0.73%	32.8%1.72%	46.8%0.60%		51.5%0.07%	32.2%0.67%
San Diego Chargers	50.0%<0.01%	33.8%0.27%	30.7%0.29%	29.3%0.35%	58.3%0.01%		32.3%0.10%	32.0%0.15%	37.2%0.14%	26.9%0.44%	34.6%0.13%	48.5%0.07%		27.5%0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	95.7%0.02%	57.6%1.70%	54.6%2.70%	53.3%2.99%	74.2%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%	60.0%0.82%	65.4%1.42%	57.6%1.14%	49.9%3.19%	67.0%1.09%	67.8%0.67%	72.5%0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		18.8%0.58%	43.1%0.05%	85.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	31.7%0.06%	44.8%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	18.6%0.32%	66.7%<0.01%	21.8%0.29%			23.7%0.16%
Chicago Bears	81.2%0.58%		78.7%2.67%	86.2%0.57%	82.2%0.19%	72.3%5.14%	74.4%3.65%	83.6%0.45%	54.8%18.18%	80.5%0.45%	60.2%23.13%	90.9%0.07%	85.2%0.03%	66.0%9.28%
Dallas Cowboys	56.9%0.05%	21.3%2.67%		84.6%0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	38.7%0.30%	45.1%0.12%	51.3%0.04%	24.6%1.47%	54.5%0.02%	27.7%1.26%	100.0%<0.01%		29.8%0.66%
Detroit Lions	14.3%<0.01%	13.8%0.57%	15.4%0.01%			35.1%0.04%	30.0%0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	18.8%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%	16.3%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%		19.7%0.06%
Green Bay Packers	0.0%<0.01%	17.8%0.19%	57.1%<0.01%			20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		21.7%0.05%		12.1%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		34.8%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	68.3%0.06%	27.7%5.14%	61.3%0.30%	64.9%0.04%	80.0%0.01%		53.2%0.23%	52.8%0.05%	32.8%2.56%	68.7%0.08%	38.0%3.44%	20.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	42.5%1.31%
Minnesota Vikings	55.2%0.03%	25.6%3.65%	54.9%0.12%	70.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	46.8%0.23%		70.6%0.02%	28.9%0.79%	63.3%0.03%	32.6%1.01%	75.0%<0.01%		39.1%0.44%
New Orleans Saints	50.0%<0.01%	16.4%0.45%	48.7%0.04%	83.3%<0.01%		47.2%0.05%	29.4%0.02%		21.9%0.26%	81.8%0.01%	26.1%0.28%	100.0%<0.01%		29.4%0.13%
New York Giants	81.4%0.32%	45.2%18.18%	75.4%1.47%	81.2%0.17%	78.3%0.05%	67.2%2.56%	71.1%0.79%	78.1%0.26%		72.7%0.26%	54.6%8.39%	85.0%0.04%	80.0%0.01%	61.1%6.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	33.3%<0.01%	19.5%0.45%	45.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		31.3%0.08%	36.7%0.03%	18.2%0.01%	27.3%0.26%		27.4%0.27%		100.0%<0.01%	32.1%0.11%
San Francisco 49ers	78.2%0.29%	39.8%23.13%	72.3%1.26%	83.7%0.14%	87.9%0.03%	62.0%3.44%	67.4%1.01%	73.9%0.28%	45.4%8.39%	72.6%0.27%		75.0%0.04%	88.9%<0.01%	57.0%4.40%
St. Louis Cardinals		9.1%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	15.0%0.04%		25.0%0.04%			25.0%0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		14.8%0.03%				100.0%<0.01%			20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	76.3%0.16%	34.0%9.28%	70.2%0.66%	80.3%0.06%	65.2%0.02%	57.5%1.31%	60.9%0.44%	70.6%0.13%	38.9%6.05%	67.9%0.11%	43.0%4.40%	75.0%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		15.4%0.01%		15.4%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	67.7%0.03%	27.8%3.60%	48.5%0.13%	60.0%0.01%	70.0%0.01%	42.9%0.43%	43.3%0.16%	57.7%0.03%	30.1%1.85%	56.7%0.03%	36.6%1.74%	50.0%<0.01%		41.4%0.79%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	60.0%0.06%	34.6%5.42%	63.8%0.22%	83.3%0.02%	55.6%<0.01%	50.5%0.63%	49.0%0.29%	50.0%0.04%	35.0%2.81%	63.2%0.04%	39.6%2.79%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	45.5%1.25%
Denver Broncos	60.0%0.04%	33.6%6.15%	66.3%0.26%	74.1%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	50.1%0.69%	58.5%0.29%	65.2%0.05%	36.1%3.15%	80.8%0.05%	41.0%3.07%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	45.2%1.42%
Houston Oilers		22.4%0.10%	16.7%<0.01%			44.4%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	6.2%0.05%		21.3%0.06%			23.8%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts		25.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.1%0.01%	27.5%1.93%	44.6%0.08%	77.8%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	45.7%0.18%	52.7%0.07%	68.8%0.02%	31.4%0.99%	61.5%0.01%	35.0%0.92%			34.2%0.39%
Los Angeles Raiders	56.5%0.02%	26.1%2.78%	55.8%0.10%	80.0%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	41.3%0.32%	42.1%0.13%	63.3%0.03%	25.9%1.42%	58.3%0.02%	31.5%1.38%	75.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	35.0%0.67%
Miami Dolphins	64.3%0.03%	31.4%3.56%	53.0%0.15%	82.4%0.02%	85.7%<0.01%	45.3%0.38%	48.3%0.17%	58.3%0.04%	33.7%1.81%	56.5%0.02%	38.2%1.65%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	38.7%0.75%
New England Patriots	67.5%0.08%	36.7%9.31%	62.2%0.43%	79.4%0.03%	76.9%0.01%	52.8%1.10%	58.5%0.43%	63.5%0.06%	38.4%4.78%	66.2%0.07%	42.9%4.66%	85.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	45.6%2.17%
New York Jets	47.4%0.02%	22.9%2.62%	43.3%0.13%	54.5%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	38.1%0.30%	41.4%0.11%	37.5%0.02%	27.2%1.35%	50.0%0.03%	28.7%1.26%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	44.4%<0.01%	22.3%1.02%	41.7%0.05%	71.4%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	28.4%0.11%	38.3%0.05%	42.9%<0.01%	24.3%0.51%	50.0%<0.01%	28.1%0.53%	100.0%<0.01%		34.7%0.25%
San Diego Chargers	50.0%<0.01%	20.8%0.27%	52.9%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		47.6%0.02%	38.5%0.01%		18.5%0.15%	50.0%<0.01%	20.6%0.13%			18.2%0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	55.2%0.03%	37.2%3.67%	68.2%0.16%	46.2%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	56.9%0.43%	56.9%0.17%	52.2%0.02%	40.0%1.87%	51.9%0.03%	42.7%1.87%	0.0%<0.01%		46.8%0.85%
Atlanta Falcons																32.3%0.03%	40.0%0.06%	40.0%0.04%			42.9%0.01%	43.5%0.02%	35.7%0.03%	32.5%0.08%	52.6%0.02%	55.6%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	44.8%0.03%
Chicago Bears															100.0%0.03%	72.2%3.60%	65.4%5.42%	66.4%6.15%	77.6%0.10%	75.0%<0.01%	72.5%1.93%	73.9%2.78%	68.6%3.56%	63.3%9.31%	77.1%2.62%	77.7%1.02%	79.2%0.27%	62.8%3.67%
Dallas Cowboys															100.0%<0.01%	51.5%0.13%	36.2%0.22%	33.7%0.26%	83.3%<0.01%		55.4%0.08%	44.2%0.10%	47.0%0.15%	37.8%0.43%	56.7%0.13%	58.3%0.05%	47.1%0.02%	31.8%0.16%
Detroit Lions																40.0%0.01%	16.7%0.02%	25.9%0.03%			22.2%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	17.6%0.02%	20.6%0.03%	45.5%0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	53.8%0.01%
Green Bay Packers																30.0%0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	23.1%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															100.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.43%	49.5%0.63%	49.9%0.69%	55.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	54.3%0.18%	58.7%0.32%	54.7%0.38%	47.2%1.10%	61.9%0.30%	71.6%0.11%	52.4%0.02%	43.1%0.43%
Minnesota Vikings															100.0%<0.01%	56.7%0.16%	51.0%0.29%	41.5%0.29%	88.9%<0.01%		47.3%0.07%	57.9%0.13%	51.7%0.17%	41.5%0.43%	58.6%0.11%	61.7%0.05%	61.5%0.01%	43.1%0.17%
New Orleans Saints																42.3%0.03%	50.0%0.04%	34.8%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%		31.2%0.02%	36.7%0.03%	41.7%0.04%	36.5%0.06%	62.5%0.02%	57.1%<0.01%		47.8%0.02%
New York Giants															84.6%0.01%	69.9%1.85%	65.0%2.81%	63.9%3.15%	93.8%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	68.6%0.99%	74.1%1.42%	66.3%1.81%	61.6%4.78%	72.8%1.35%	75.7%0.51%	81.5%0.15%	60.0%1.87%
Philadelphia Eagles																43.3%0.03%	36.8%0.04%	19.2%0.05%		0.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%	41.7%0.02%	43.5%0.02%	33.8%0.07%	50.0%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	48.1%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers															84.6%0.01%	63.4%1.74%	60.4%2.79%	59.0%3.07%	78.7%0.06%	75.0%<0.01%	65.0%0.92%	68.5%1.38%	61.8%1.65%	57.1%4.66%	71.3%1.26%	71.9%0.53%	79.4%0.13%	57.3%1.87%
St. Louis Cardinals																50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%				25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															100.0%<0.01%	58.6%0.79%	54.5%1.25%	54.8%1.42%	76.2%0.02%		65.8%0.39%	65.0%0.67%	61.3%0.75%	54.4%2.17%	68.4%0.64%	65.3%0.25%	81.8%0.06%	53.2%0.85%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Chicago Bears	100.00%	63.88%	35.41%	24.01%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	100.00%	62.44%	33.19%	21.37%	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	60.99%	31.26%	11.25%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	39.77%	18.46%	11.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	100.00%	50.74%	28.05%	11.04%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	100.00%	49.26%	25.59%	9.25%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	60.11%	21.10%	8.68%	4.98%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	52.41%	21.68%	8.81%	2.85%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	39.89%	12.81%	4.27%	2.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	47.59%	17.32%	6.29%	1.80%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs		52.4%100.00%
New York Jets	47.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams		39.9%100.00%
Washington Redskins	60.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)			58.6%52.41%		63.6%47.59%
Denver Broncos				49.3%100.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.4%52.41%
New England Patriots		50.7%100.00%
New York Jets	36.4%47.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				62.3%39.89%	64.9%60.11%
Los Angeles Rams			32.1%39.89%
New York Giants		67.9%39.89%		58.8%60.11%
San Francisco 49ers	37.7%39.89%		41.2%60.11%
Washington Redskins	35.1%60.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)		52.7%30.25%		49.8%30.75%
Denver Broncos	47.3%30.25%		57.5%10.64%		61.9%8.37%
Kansas City Chiefs		42.5%10.64%		38.9%11.04%
New England Patriots	50.2%30.75%		61.1%11.04%		65.4%8.95%
New York Jets		38.1%8.37%		34.6%8.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		68.7%8.01%	50.4%39.90%	61.4%15.97%
Los Angeles Rams	31.3%8.01%			36.7%4.80%
New York Giants	49.6%39.90%			57.4%10.22%	61.0%12.32%
San Francisco 49ers	38.6%15.97%	63.3%4.80%	42.6%10.22%		55.8%8.78%
Washington Redskins			39.0%12.32%	44.2%8.78%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.8%11.01%	46.9%1.35%	35.3%10.34%	39.8%5.81%	42.0%2.74%
Denver Broncos	32.5%9.13%	49.4%1.06%	34.9%8.45%	39.4%4.77%	42.7%2.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.9%3.13%	42.8%0.40%	31.7%2.89%	34.9%1.62%	38.7%0.77%
New England Patriots	35.0%9.95%	49.6%1.17%	39.2%9.34%	42.3%5.13%	46.1%2.46%
New York Jets	24.7%2.19%	39.5%0.28%	29.4%2.16%	29.3%1.14%	34.4%0.52%
Chicago Bears						68.2%11.01%	67.5%9.13%	71.1%3.13%	65.0%9.95%	75.3%2.19%
Los Angeles Rams						53.1%1.35%	50.6%1.06%	57.2%0.40%	50.4%1.17%	60.5%0.28%
New York Giants						64.7%10.34%	65.1%8.45%	68.3%2.89%	60.8%9.34%	70.6%2.16%
San Francisco 49ers						60.2%5.81%	60.6%4.77%	65.1%1.62%	57.7%5.13%	70.7%1.14%
Washington Redskins						58.0%2.74%	57.3%2.18%	61.3%0.77%	53.9%2.46%	65.6%0.52%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 24.01% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

61.07%

Win Prob

64.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

56.74%

Win Prob

50.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

31.28%

Win Prob

68.20%

New York Giants 21.37% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.63%

Win Prob

58.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

59.68%

Win Prob

49.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

31.30%

Win Prob

64.67%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 11.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

50.38%

Win Prob

58.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.03%

Win Prob

52.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

32.47%

Win Prob

35.33%

San Francisco 49ers 11.20% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

62.23%

Win Prob

41.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

33.38%

Win Prob

38.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

31.24%

Win Prob

60.22%

New England Patriots 11.04% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

55.06%

Win Prob

50.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

33.22%

Win Prob

39.25%

Denver Broncos 9.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.26%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

55.86%

Win Prob

47.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

32.06%

Win Prob

32.50%

Washington Redskins 4.98% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.11%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

55.34%

Win Prob

38.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

31.90%

Win Prob

57.99%

Kansas City Chiefs 2.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

51.29%

Win Prob

42.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

32.15%

Win Prob

31.74%

Los Angeles Rams 2.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.89%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

58.67%

Win Prob

31.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

32.06%

Win Prob

53.14%

New York Jets 1.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

50.72%

Win Prob

38.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

35.33%

Win Prob

29.40%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1986-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-10	1413.96	1425.82	44.61%	54.24%	+28.06	1-0
1986-09-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-13	1442.02	1411.96	56.82%	42.04%	+21.28	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-35	1463.30	1545.93	34.92%	64.00%	+10.21	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1473.51	1374.46	60.36%	38.52%	+7.55	4-0
1986-10-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-16	1481.06	1455.29	56.21%	42.64%	-25.37	4-1
1986-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-14	1455.69	1550.41	39.11%	59.77%	+23.35	5-1
1986-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	T 10-10	1479.04	1641.81	30.32%	68.67%	+1.07	5-1
1986-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1480.11	1535.07	38.61%	60.28%	-11.56	5-2
1986-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 17-25	1468.55	1624.65	26.07%	73.00%	-8.35	5-3
1986-11-09	New York Jets	L 14-28	1460.20	1631.16	29.34%	69.67%	-12.44	5-4
1986-11-16	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1447.76	1693.73	21.29%	77.88%	-4.17	5-5
1986-11-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-20	1443.59	1611.81	24.76%	74.34%	-12.54	5-6
1986-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-14	1431.05	1571.61	27.81%	71.22%	+19.64	6-6
1986-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-28	1450.69	1272.26	75.43%	23.69%	-18.98	6-7
1986-12-14	New Orleans Saints	L 9-14	1431.71	1457.54	48.83%	50.01%	-12.34	6-8
1986-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-6	1419.37	1400.83	48.96%	49.88%	+21.09	7-8
1986-09-07	New York Jets	L 24-28	1369.43	1529.88	30.60%	68.38%	-6.93	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 33-36	1362.50	1480.49	30.48%	68.51%	-5.98	0-2
1986-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1356.52	1390.68	47.63%	51.20%	+15.31	1-2
1986-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1371.83	1504.50	34.07%	64.86%	-6.69	1-3
1986-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 13-14	1365.14	1548.82	23.15%	75.98%	-2.62	1-4
1986-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-27	1362.52	1508.49	27.20%	71.85%	-11.11	1-5
1986-10-19	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-13	1351.41	1349.32	52.84%	46.00%	+17.26	2-5
1986-10-26	New England Patriots	L 3-23	1368.67	1613.83	21.37%	77.80%	-10.82	2-6
1986-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-34	1357.85	1309.53	53.24%	45.61%	-14.72	2-7
1986-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1343.13	1459.93	36.15%	62.76%	+14.15	3-7
1986-11-16	Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1357.28	1514.00	31.06%	67.92%	-11.13	3-8
1986-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 19-22	1346.15	1644.37	13.54%	85.86%	-2.64	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1343.51	1483.49	27.88%	71.15%	+13.87	4-9
1986-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1357.38	1529.68	29.18%	69.83%	-6.61	4-10
1986-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-24	1350.77	1291.24	54.83%	44.01%	-19.57	4-11
1986-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-16	1331.20	1362.86	41.82%	57.04%	-14.20	4-12
1986-09-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-31	1675.86	1488.69	76.34%	22.80%	+8.16	1-0
1986-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1684.02	1449.92	80.83%	18.43%	+3.61	2-0
1986-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 25-12	1687.63	1436.28	78.41%	20.78%	+8.48	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-7	1696.11	1511.11	71.33%	27.71%	+19.09	4-0
1986-10-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-0	1715.20	1503.08	78.81%	20.39%	+11.06	5-0
1986-10-12	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-7	1726.26	1368.39	86.94%	12.50%	+5.08	6-0
1986-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-23	1731.34	1506.43	75.75%	23.38%	-34.09	6-1
1986-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1697.25	1439.69	82.81%	16.50%	+4.57	7-1
1986-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1701.82	1546.63	72.90%	26.17%	-14.22	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-3	1687.60	1324.25	87.29%	12.16%	+6.13	8-2
1986-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-10	1693.73	1447.76	77.88%	21.29%	+4.18	9-2
1986-11-23	Green Bay Packers	W 12-10	1697.91	1374.84	87.49%	11.96%	+1.91	10-2
1986-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1699.82	1447.66	82.37%	16.93%	+3.31	11-2
1986-12-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-14	1703.13	1265.06	93.09%	6.58%	+4.31	12-2
1986-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1707.44	1404.03	83.00%	16.31%	+3.19	13-2
1986-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-10	1710.63	1494.32	74.84%	24.27%	+10.28	14-2
1986-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1497.83	1482.31	48.52%	50.31%	-17.34	0-1
1986-09-14	Buffalo Bills	W 36-33	1480.49	1362.50	68.51%	30.48%	+5.98	1-1
1986-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1486.47	1489.15	45.91%	52.93%	+24.64	2-1
1986-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 7-44	1511.11	1696.11	27.71%	71.33%	-19.09	2-2
1986-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-28	1492.02	1401.39	59.20%	39.67%	+11.01	3-2
1986-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-22	1503.03	1432.41	62.40%	36.50%	+5.84	4-2
1986-10-19	Houston Oilers	W 31-28	1508.87	1363.30	71.80%	27.24%	+5.35	5-2
1986-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-30	1514.22	1406.92	61.49%	37.41%	-31.77	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1482.45	1435.12	53.09%	45.75%	+13.69	6-3
1986-11-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 28-32	1496.14	1336.21	68.32%	30.66%	-15.40	6-4
1986-11-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1480.74	1530.50	45.40%	53.44%	+31.36	7-4
1986-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1512.10	1527.91	50.27%	48.57%	+10.98	8-4
1986-11-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-34	1523.08	1643.28	30.21%	68.78%	-8.38	8-5
1986-12-07	@ New England Patriots	W 31-7	1514.70	1650.26	28.39%	70.63%	+38.96	9-5
1986-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-34	1553.66	1536.29	55.02%	43.83%	-34.58	9-6
1986-12-21	New York Jets	W 52-21	1519.08	1525.31	51.65%	47.19%	+29.71	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 31-41	1488.69	1675.86	22.80%	76.34%	-8.16	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-20	1480.53	1420.99	54.84%	44.01%	+8.62	1-1
1986-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-30	1489.15	1486.47	52.93%	45.91%	-24.64	1-2
1986-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1464.51	1426.30	57.96%	40.91%	+8.02	2-2
1986-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1472.53	1441.84	50.71%	48.13%	+9.42	3-2
1986-10-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-7	1481.95	1496.88	50.40%	48.44%	+19.75	4-2
1986-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1501.70	1376.53	69.39%	29.62%	-13.54	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1488.16	1540.52	38.96%	59.92%	+11.71	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-9	1499.87	1325.67	70.06%	28.96%	+12.70	6-3
1986-11-10	Miami Dolphins	W 26-16	1512.57	1531.51	49.82%	49.02%	+17.52	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-27	1530.09	1581.92	39.03%	59.85%	-15.94	7-4
1986-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-31	1514.15	1458.34	60.40%	38.49%	+10.68	8-4
1986-11-30	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1524.83	1356.49	74.35%	24.74%	+4.85	9-4
1986-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1529.68	1357.38	69.83%	29.18%	+6.61	10-4
1986-12-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-3	1536.29	1553.66	43.83%	55.02%	+34.59	11-4
1986-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 47-17	1570.88	1459.17	67.73%	31.24%	+19.38	12-4
1986-09-08	New York Giants	W 31-28	1510.28	1578.88	42.73%	56.12%	+10.97	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1521.25	1465.35	54.32%	44.53%	+24.68	2-0
1986-09-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 35-37	1545.93	1463.30	64.00%	34.92%	-10.21	2-1
1986-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-7	1535.72	1375.38	68.37%	30.61%	+16.99	3-1
1986-10-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-29	1552.71	1620.87	36.83%	62.07%	-16.15	3-2
1986-10-12	Washington Redskins	W 30-6	1536.56	1602.74	43.07%	55.78%	+30.84	4-2
1986-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1567.40	1461.84	61.25%	37.64%	+7.38	5-2
1986-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-6	1574.78	1365.60	78.53%	20.66%	+13.02	6-2
1986-11-02	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1587.80	1626.08	40.90%	57.97%	-8.02	6-3
1986-11-09	Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1579.78	1569.73	53.98%	44.87%	-12.19	6-4
1986-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-21	1567.59	1456.79	61.96%	36.94%	+7.25	7-4
1986-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1574.84	1602.33	42.40%	56.46%	-24.94	7-5
1986-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1549.90	1508.01	58.47%	40.40%	-27.20	7-6
1986-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-29	1522.70	1578.70	38.47%	60.42%	-18.98	7-7
1986-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-23	1503.72	1458.78	58.90%	39.98%	-9.40	7-8
1986-12-21	Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1494.32	1710.63	24.27%	74.84%	-10.28	7-9
1986-09-07	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-36	1566.66	1563.82	52.95%	45.89%	+7.35	1-0
1986-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-10	1574.01	1468.63	61.23%	37.67%	+14.14	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-7	1588.15	1446.31	66.04%	32.91%	+19.01	3-0
1986-09-28	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1607.16	1603.74	53.03%	45.81%	+13.71	4-0
1986-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-14	1620.87	1552.71	62.07%	36.83%	+16.16	5-0
1986-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1637.03	1480.91	67.85%	31.13%	+14.54	6-0
1986-10-20	@ New York Jets	L 10-22	1651.57	1569.67	57.99%	40.88%	-22.67	6-1
1986-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-13	1628.90	1603.58	56.15%	42.71%	+12.79	7-1
1986-11-02	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 21-10	1641.69	1586.48	54.22%	44.63%	+16.74	8-1
1986-11-09	San Diego Chargers	L 3-9	1658.43	1434.79	79.89%	19.34%	-22.00	8-2
1986-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-17	1636.43	1522.83	67.97%	31.01%	+16.10	9-2
1986-11-23	@ New York Giants	L 16-19	1652.53	1645.88	47.25%	51.59%	-9.25	9-3
1986-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-28	1643.28	1523.08	68.78%	30.21%	+8.38	10-3
1986-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-37	1651.66	1469.61	70.99%	28.04%	-41.54	10-4
1986-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-30	1610.12	1614.17	51.96%	46.88%	+5.31	11-4
1986-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-41	1615.43	1585.83	50.55%	48.29%	-28.56	11-5
1986-09-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1455.43	1442.37	48.17%	50.67%	+9.92	1-0
1986-09-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1465.35	1521.25	44.53%	54.32%	-24.68	1-1
1986-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-24	1440.67	1360.10	63.73%	35.19%	-14.37	1-2
1986-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-24	1426.30	1464.51	40.91%	57.96%	-8.02	1-3
1986-10-05	Houston Oilers	W 24-13	1418.28	1383.95	57.42%	41.45%	+15.56	2-3
1986-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-14	1433.84	1390.38	52.54%	46.30%	+13.85	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-14	1447.69	1527.06	35.35%	63.57%	-8.00	3-4
1986-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1439.69	1697.25	16.50%	82.81%	-4.57	3-5
1986-11-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1435.12	1482.45	45.75%	53.09%	-13.69	3-6
1986-11-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1421.43	1517.43	38.94%	59.94%	-16.50	3-7
1986-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-11	1404.93	1457.66	38.91%	59.97%	+9.57	4-7
1986-11-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-17	1414.50	1295.09	63.11%	35.80%	+18.58	5-7
1986-11-27	Green Bay Packers	L 40-44	1433.08	1372.93	60.99%	37.90%	-13.76	5-8
1986-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1419.32	1444.35	42.75%	56.11%	-15.29	5-9
1986-12-15	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1404.03	1707.44	16.31%	83.00%	-3.20	5-10
1986-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-20	1400.83	1419.37	49.88%	48.96%	-21.09	5-11
1986-09-07	Houston Oilers	L 3-31	1500.61	1379.96	68.84%	30.16%	-41.03	0-1
1986-09-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1459.58	1397.76	55.16%	43.69%	-23.30	0-2
1986-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 12-25	1436.28	1687.63	20.78%	78.41%	-8.48	0-3
1986-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-42	1427.80	1476.67	39.44%	59.44%	-26.41	0-4
1986-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-34	1401.39	1492.02	39.67%	59.20%	-11.01	0-5
1986-10-12	Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1390.38	1433.84	46.30%	52.54%	-13.85	0-6
1986-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1376.53	1501.70	29.62%	69.39%	+13.54	1-6
1986-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1390.07	1640.74	20.85%	78.34%	-8.83	1-7
1986-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1381.24	1438.70	38.27%	60.62%	-21.23	1-8
1986-11-09	Washington Redskins	L 7-16	1360.01	1577.36	24.16%	74.95%	-8.21	1-9
1986-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1351.80	1318.12	57.33%	41.54%	+23.04	2-9
1986-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-12	1374.84	1697.91	11.96%	87.49%	-1.91	2-10
1986-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 44-40	1372.93	1433.08	37.90%	60.99%	+13.75	3-10
1986-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-32	1386.68	1528.37	32.93%	66.02%	-19.02	3-11
1986-12-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-7	1367.66	1260.75	61.43%	37.46%	+15.88	4-11
1986-12-20	@ New York Giants	L 24-55	1383.54	1689.15	13.06%	86.37%	-8.20	4-12
1986-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-3	1379.96	1500.61	30.16%	68.84%	+41.03	1-0
1986-09-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1420.99	1480.53	44.01%	54.84%	-8.63	1-1
1986-09-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-27	1412.36	1489.39	35.66%	63.26%	-15.11	1-2
1986-09-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-22	1397.25	1428.53	48.05%	50.79%	-13.30	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1383.95	1418.28	41.45%	57.42%	-15.56	1-4
1986-10-12	Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1368.39	1726.26	12.50%	86.94%	-5.09	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-31	1363.30	1508.87	27.24%	71.80%	-5.34	1-6
1986-10-26	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-28	1357.96	1577.49	23.93%	75.18%	-8.99	1-7
1986-11-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-28	1348.97	1518.76	24.59%	74.51%	-12.76	1-8
1986-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 32-28	1336.21	1496.14	30.66%	68.32%	+15.39	2-8
1986-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1351.60	1445.77	33.44%	65.51%	-12.56	2-9
1986-11-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1339.04	1302.96	57.66%	41.20%	+17.45	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1356.49	1524.83	24.74%	74.35%	-4.85	3-10
1986-12-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-27	1351.64	1453.89	32.42%	66.54%	-19.08	3-11
1986-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-10	1332.56	1547.39	24.42%	74.68%	+30.30	4-11
1986-12-21	Buffalo Bills	W 16-7	1362.86	1331.20	57.04%	41.82%	+14.20	5-11
1986-09-07	@ New England Patriots	L 3-33	1425.85	1587.26	25.49%	73.59%	-15.81	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1410.04	1549.21	27.97%	71.06%	-14.17	0-2
1986-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1395.87	1557.56	30.45%	68.54%	-14.22	0-3
1986-09-28	New York Jets	L 7-26	1381.65	1533.17	31.70%	67.27%	-15.65	0-4
1986-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-35	1366.00	1648.66	14.62%	84.75%	-7.57	0-5
1986-10-12	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1358.43	1400.38	46.52%	52.32%	-9.11	0-6
1986-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-24	1349.32	1351.41	46.00%	52.84%	-17.25	0-7
1986-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1332.07	1512.36	28.25%	70.78%	-6.40	0-8
1986-11-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-24	1325.67	1499.87	28.96%	70.06%	-12.71	0-9
1986-11-09	New England Patriots	L 21-30	1312.96	1633.00	15.06%	84.30%	-5.10	0-10
1986-11-16	@ New York Jets	L 16-31	1307.86	1643.59	11.22%	88.26%	-4.90	0-11
1986-11-23	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-31	1302.96	1339.04	41.20%	57.66%	-17.45	0-12
1986-11-30	San Diego Chargers	L 3-17	1285.51	1440.64	31.25%	67.72%	-13.25	0-13
1986-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-23	1272.26	1450.69	23.69%	75.43%	+18.98	1-13
1986-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 24-14	1291.24	1350.77	44.01%	54.83%	+19.58	2-13
1986-12-21	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 30-24	1310.82	1538.13	19.02%	80.22%	+22.09	3-13
1986-09-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1482.31	1497.83	50.31%	48.52%	+17.34	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1499.65	1566.50	37.01%	61.90%	-10.26	1-1
1986-09-21	Houston Oilers	W 27-13	1489.39	1412.36	63.26%	35.66%	+15.11	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-17	1504.50	1371.83	64.86%	34.07%	+6.68	3-1
1986-10-05	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-24	1511.18	1544.06	47.82%	51.02%	-14.30	3-2
1986-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1496.88	1481.95	48.44%	50.40%	-19.74	3-3
1986-10-19	San Diego Chargers	W 42-41	1477.14	1466.37	54.08%	44.76%	+5.06	4-3
1986-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1482.20	1317.04	74.01%	25.08%	+7.52	5-3
1986-11-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-23	1489.72	1439.92	53.45%	45.40%	+5.13	6-3
1986-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-7	1494.85	1558.47	43.44%	55.41%	+27.98	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-38	1522.83	1636.43	31.01%	67.97%	-16.10	7-4
1986-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-23	1506.73	1343.12	68.77%	30.22%	-23.24	7-5
1986-11-30	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1483.49	1343.51	71.15%	27.88%	-13.88	7-6
1986-12-07	Denver Broncos	W 37-10	1469.61	1651.66	28.04%	70.99%	+41.53	8-6
1986-12-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 20-17	1511.14	1549.45	40.89%	57.97%	+11.33	9-6
1986-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-19	1522.47	1493.85	50.41%	48.43%	+12.24	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 36-38	1563.82	1566.66	45.89%	52.95%	-7.34	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-10	1556.48	1562.61	45.42%	53.42%	-10.28	0-2
1986-09-21	New York Giants	L 9-14	1546.20	1585.01	46.97%	51.87%	-11.87	0-3
1986-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 17-13	1534.33	1510.94	55.88%	42.98%	+9.73	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1544.06	1511.18	51.02%	47.82%	+14.30	2-3
1986-10-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 14-10	1558.36	1602.46	46.21%	52.63%	+11.89	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-28	1570.25	1519.60	53.57%	45.27%	+7.24	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 28-17	1577.49	1357.96	75.18%	23.93%	+8.99	5-3
1986-11-02	Denver Broncos	L 10-21	1586.48	1641.69	44.63%	54.22%	-16.75	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-13	1569.73	1579.78	44.87%	53.98%	+12.19	6-4
1986-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-14	1581.92	1530.09	59.85%	39.03%	+15.94	7-4
1986-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-31	1597.86	1449.54	66.87%	32.09%	+8.90	8-4
1986-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-33	1606.76	1439.23	74.27%	24.83%	-20.47	8-5
1986-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-37	1586.29	1535.20	53.63%	45.21%	-36.84	8-6
1986-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1549.45	1511.14	57.97%	40.89%	-11.32	8-7
1986-12-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-30	1538.13	1310.82	80.22%	19.02%	-22.10	8-8
1986-09-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1535.90	1422.10	62.36%	36.54%	+10.14	1-0
1986-09-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1546.04	1635.03	39.90%	58.98%	+11.52	2-0
1986-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-7	1557.56	1395.87	68.54%	30.45%	+14.22	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-34	1571.78	1427.30	66.38%	32.57%	-27.98	3-1
1986-10-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1543.80	1366.91	75.27%	23.85%	+6.61	4-1
1986-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-26	1550.41	1455.69	59.77%	39.11%	-23.35	4-2
1986-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 14-10	1527.06	1447.69	63.57%	35.35%	+8.01	5-2
1986-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1535.07	1480.11	60.28%	38.61%	+11.56	6-2
1986-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1546.63	1701.82	26.17%	72.90%	+14.22	7-2
1986-11-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-6	1560.85	1456.79	61.05%	37.85%	-16.87	7-3
1986-11-16	New England Patriots	L 28-30	1543.98	1638.10	39.20%	59.68%	-6.27	7-4
1986-11-23	New Orleans Saints	W 26-13	1537.71	1485.87	59.85%	39.03%	+15.93	8-4
1986-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 17-3	1553.64	1602.00	39.51%	59.37%	+25.06	9-4
1986-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 29-10	1578.70	1522.70	60.42%	38.47%	+18.99	10-4
1986-12-14	Miami Dolphins	L 31-37	1597.69	1561.12	57.73%	41.13%	-15.96	10-5
1986-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1581.73	1643.45	37.69%	61.20%	-13.50	10-6
1986-09-07	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-50	1579.19	1506.85	56.65%	42.21%	-29.98	0-1
1986-09-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-10	1549.21	1410.04	71.06%	27.97%	+14.17	1-1
1986-09-21	@ New York Jets	L 45-51	1563.38	1518.58	52.73%	46.11%	-14.59	1-2
1986-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-31	1548.79	1630.74	40.87%	57.99%	-17.92	1-3
1986-10-05	@ New England Patriots	L 7-34	1530.87	1590.03	38.04%	60.85%	-22.38	1-4
1986-10-12	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1508.49	1362.52	71.85%	27.20%	+11.11	2-4
1986-10-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 28-30	1519.60	1570.25	45.27%	53.57%	-7.24	2-5
1986-10-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-13	1512.36	1332.07	70.78%	28.25%	+6.40	3-5
1986-11-02	Houston Oilers	W 28-7	1518.76	1348.97	74.51%	24.59%	+12.75	4-5
1986-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-26	1531.51	1512.57	49.02%	49.82%	-17.51	4-6
1986-11-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-24	1514.00	1357.28	67.92%	31.06%	+11.12	5-6
1986-11-24	New York Jets	W 45-3	1525.12	1648.49	35.28%	63.64%	+46.49	6-6
1986-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1571.61	1431.05	71.22%	27.81%	-19.64	6-7
1986-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-27	1551.97	1466.69	58.46%	40.41%	+9.15	7-7
1986-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1561.12	1597.69	41.13%	57.73%	+15.95	8-7
1986-12-22	New England Patriots	L 27-34	1577.07	1598.73	49.43%	49.41%	-14.78	8-8
1986-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1442.37	1455.43	50.67%	48.17%	-9.92	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-10	1432.45	1378.36	54.06%	44.79%	+18.27	1-1
1986-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-7	1450.72	1454.48	52.00%	46.84%	+25.95	2-1
1986-09-28	Green Bay Packers	W 42-7	1476.67	1427.80	59.44%	39.44%	+26.41	3-1
1986-10-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-23	1503.08	1715.20	20.39%	78.81%	-11.06	3-2
1986-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1492.02	1656.22	25.19%	73.90%	+14.41	4-2
1986-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 23-7	1506.43	1731.34	23.38%	75.75%	+34.09	5-2
1986-10-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1540.52	1488.16	59.92%	38.96%	-11.70	5-3
1986-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 38-44	1528.82	1565.98	41.05%	57.81%	-11.39	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1517.43	1421.43	59.94%	38.94%	+16.50	6-4
1986-11-16	New York Giants	L 20-22	1533.93	1639.86	37.59%	61.30%	-6.02	6-5
1986-11-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-24	1527.91	1512.10	48.57%	50.27%	-10.98	6-6
1986-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-13	1516.93	1276.50	81.38%	17.89%	+11.44	7-6
1986-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 32-6	1528.37	1386.68	66.02%	32.93%	+19.02	8-6
1986-12-14	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-23	1547.39	1332.56	74.68%	24.42%	-30.30	8-7
1986-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1517.09	1469.88	59.21%	39.67%	+17.96	9-7
1986-09-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 33-3	1587.26	1425.85	73.59%	25.49%	+15.81	1-0
1986-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 20-6	1603.07	1536.81	55.79%	43.06%	+18.23	2-0
1986-09-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-38	1621.30	1576.76	58.84%	40.03%	-17.56	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-27	1603.74	1607.16	45.81%	53.03%	-13.71	2-2
1986-10-05	Miami Dolphins	W 34-7	1590.03	1530.87	60.85%	38.04%	+22.39	3-2
1986-10-12	New York Jets	L 24-31	1612.42	1551.44	61.10%	37.79%	-18.23	3-3
1986-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-0	1594.19	1426.57	69.26%	29.74%	+19.64	4-3
1986-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-3	1613.83	1368.67	77.80%	21.37%	+10.82	5-3
1986-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 25-17	1624.65	1468.55	73.00%	26.07%	+8.35	6-3
1986-11-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-21	1633.00	1312.96	84.30%	15.06%	+5.10	7-3
1986-11-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1638.10	1543.98	59.68%	39.20%	+6.27	8-3
1986-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1644.37	1346.15	85.86%	13.54%	+2.65	9-3
1986-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1647.02	1469.93	70.40%	28.62%	+3.24	10-3
1986-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-31	1650.26	1514.70	70.63%	28.39%	-38.96	10-4
1986-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-29	1611.30	1630.89	49.73%	49.11%	-12.57	10-5
1986-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-27	1598.73	1577.07	49.41%	49.43%	+14.78	11-5
1986-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-31	1425.82	1413.96	54.24%	44.61%	-28.06	0-1
1986-09-14	Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1397.76	1459.58	43.69%	55.16%	+23.29	1-1
1986-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-26	1421.05	1623.51	21.30%	77.88%	-7.23	1-2
1986-09-28	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1413.82	1596.89	23.21%	75.92%	-4.55	1-3
1986-10-05	Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1409.27	1593.85	27.75%	71.28%	-8.89	1-4
1986-10-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-14	1400.38	1358.43	52.32%	46.52%	+9.11	2-4
1986-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1409.49	1340.17	62.23%	36.67%	+23.13	3-4
1986-10-26	@ New York Jets	L 23-28	1432.62	1592.33	25.67%	73.40%	-6.50	3-5
1986-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-10	1426.12	1649.56	23.53%	75.60%	+30.67	4-5
1986-11-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 6-0	1456.79	1560.85	37.85%	61.05%	+16.86	5-5
1986-11-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-7	1473.65	1355.33	62.97%	35.94%	+12.22	6-5
1986-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-26	1485.87	1537.71	39.03%	59.85%	-15.94	6-6
1986-11-30	New England Patriots	L 20-21	1469.93	1647.02	28.62%	70.40%	-3.24	6-7
1986-12-07	Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1466.69	1551.97	40.41%	58.46%	-9.15	6-8
1986-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-9	1457.54	1431.71	50.01%	48.83%	+12.34	7-8
1986-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-33	1469.88	1517.09	39.67%	59.21%	-17.96	7-9
1986-09-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1578.88	1510.28	56.12%	42.73%	-10.97	0-1
1986-09-14	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1567.91	1536.84	56.96%	41.90%	+17.10	1-1
1986-09-21	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 14-9	1585.01	1546.20	51.87%	46.97%	+11.88	2-1
1986-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1596.89	1413.82	75.92%	23.21%	+4.55	3-1
1986-10-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 13-6	1601.44	1358.39	77.60%	21.57%	+6.46	4-1
1986-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-3	1607.90	1480.66	69.64%	29.37%	+18.82	5-1
1986-10-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1626.72	1590.57	51.49%	47.35%	-13.01	5-2
1986-10-27	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1613.71	1578.35	57.56%	41.30%	+12.37	6-2
1986-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1626.08	1587.80	57.97%	40.90%	+8.02	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1634.10	1463.42	69.63%	29.37%	+5.76	8-2
1986-11-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 22-20	1639.86	1533.93	61.30%	37.59%	+6.02	9-2
1986-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1645.88	1652.53	51.59%	47.25%	+9.26	10-2
1986-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1655.14	1624.34	50.72%	48.12%	+10.88	11-2
1986-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1666.02	1631.17	51.30%	47.53%	+16.99	12-2
1986-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-7	1683.01	1363.38	87.28%	12.17%	+6.14	13-2
1986-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 55-24	1689.15	1383.54	86.37%	13.06%	+8.20	14-2
1986-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1529.88	1369.43	68.38%	30.60%	+6.93	1-0
1986-09-11	New England Patriots	L 6-20	1536.81	1603.07	43.06%	55.79%	-18.23	1-1
1986-09-21	Miami Dolphins	W 51-45	1518.58	1563.38	46.11%	52.73%	+14.59	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 26-7	1533.17	1381.65	67.27%	31.70%	+15.65	3-1
1986-10-05	Buffalo Bills	W 14-13	1548.82	1365.14	75.98%	23.15%	+2.62	4-1
1986-10-12	@ New England Patriots	W 31-24	1551.44	1612.42	37.79%	61.10%	+18.23	5-1
1986-10-20	Denver Broncos	W 22-10	1569.67	1651.57	40.88%	57.99%	+22.66	6-1
1986-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 28-23	1592.33	1432.62	73.40%	25.67%	+6.50	7-1
1986-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 38-7	1598.83	1590.79	47.45%	51.39%	+32.33	8-1
1986-11-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-14	1631.16	1460.20	69.67%	29.34%	+12.43	9-1
1986-11-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-16	1643.59	1307.86	88.26%	11.22%	+4.90	10-1
1986-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-45	1648.49	1525.12	63.64%	35.28%	-46.49	10-2
1986-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-17	1602.00	1553.64	59.37%	39.51%	-25.06	10-3
1986-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-24	1576.94	1613.46	41.14%	57.72%	-17.42	10-4
1986-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-45	1559.52	1459.65	66.24%	32.72%	-34.21	10-5
1986-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-52	1525.31	1519.08	47.19%	51.65%	-29.70	10-6
1986-09-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1471.48	1541.05	36.64%	62.26%	-21.56	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1449.92	1684.02	18.43%	80.83%	-3.61	0-2
1986-09-21	Denver Broncos	L 7-33	1446.31	1588.15	32.91%	66.04%	-19.01	0-3
1986-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-20	1427.30	1571.78	32.57%	66.38%	+27.99	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-0	1455.29	1481.06	42.64%	56.21%	+25.37	2-3
1986-10-12	@ New York Giants	L 3-35	1480.66	1607.90	29.37%	69.64%	-18.82	2-4
1986-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1461.84	1567.40	37.64%	61.25%	-7.38	2-5
1986-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-7	1454.46	1461.31	51.56%	47.28%	+21.38	3-5
1986-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-13	1475.84	1352.59	63.62%	35.30%	-12.42	3-6
1986-11-09	New York Giants	L 14-17	1463.42	1634.10	29.37%	69.63%	-5.76	3-7
1986-11-16	Detroit Lions	L 11-13	1457.66	1404.93	59.97%	38.91%	-9.57	3-8
1986-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1448.09	1499.14	39.14%	59.74%	-8.86	3-9
1986-11-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 33-27	1439.23	1606.76	24.83%	74.27%	+20.47	4-9
1986-12-07	St. Louis Cardinals	T 10-10	1459.70	1362.46	65.90%	33.05%	-0.92	4-9
1986-12-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-21	1458.78	1503.72	39.98%	58.90%	+9.40	5-9
1986-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 14-21	1468.18	1608.87	33.05%	65.90%	-9.91	5-10
1986-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-30	1493.08	1542.05	39.42%	59.45%	-24.45	0-1
1986-09-15	Denver Broncos	L 10-21	1468.63	1574.01	37.67%	61.23%	-14.15	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1454.48	1450.72	46.84%	52.00%	-25.95	0-3
1986-09-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 22-16	1428.53	1397.25	50.79%	48.05%	+13.31	1-3
1986-10-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1441.84	1472.53	48.13%	50.71%	-9.43	1-4
1986-10-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 22-24	1432.41	1503.03	36.50%	62.40%	-5.84	1-5
1986-10-19	New England Patriots	L 0-34	1426.57	1594.19	29.74%	69.26%	-19.65	1-6
1986-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-9	1406.92	1514.22	37.41%	61.49%	+31.78	2-6
1986-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 27-3	1438.70	1381.24	60.62%	38.27%	+21.23	3-6
1986-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-16	1459.93	1343.13	62.76%	36.15%	-14.16	3-7
1986-11-16	Houston Oilers	W 21-10	1445.77	1351.60	65.51%	33.44%	+12.57	4-7
1986-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-37	1458.34	1514.15	38.49%	60.40%	-10.68	4-8
1986-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1447.66	1699.82	16.93%	82.37%	-3.31	4-9
1986-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 27-17	1444.35	1419.32	56.11%	42.75%	+15.30	5-9
1986-12-13	@ New York Jets	W 45-24	1459.65	1559.52	32.72%	66.24%	+34.20	6-9
1986-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-24	1493.85	1522.47	48.43%	50.41%	-12.24	6-10
1986-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 50-28	1506.85	1579.19	42.21%	56.65%	+29.99	1-0
1986-09-14	@ New York Giants	L 7-20	1536.84	1567.91	41.90%	56.96%	-17.10	1-1
1986-09-21	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1519.74	1572.89	44.92%	53.93%	-8.80	1-2
1986-09-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-17	1510.94	1534.33	42.98%	55.88%	-9.73	1-3
1986-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-33	1501.21	1582.16	35.14%	63.78%	-20.30	1-4
1986-10-12	Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1480.91	1637.03	31.13%	67.85%	-14.54	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 41-42	1466.37	1477.14	44.76%	54.08%	-5.06	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1461.31	1454.46	47.28%	51.56%	-21.39	1-7
1986-11-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1439.92	1489.72	45.40%	53.45%	-5.13	1-8
1986-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 9-3	1434.79	1658.43	19.34%	79.89%	+22.00	2-8
1986-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1456.79	1567.59	36.94%	61.96%	-7.25	2-9
1986-11-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-37	1449.54	1597.86	32.09%	66.87%	-8.90	2-10
1986-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-3	1440.64	1285.51	67.72%	31.25%	+13.25	3-10
1986-12-07	Houston Oilers	W 27-0	1453.89	1351.64	66.54%	32.42%	+19.08	4-10
1986-12-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-34	1472.97	1572.04	38.52%	60.36%	-13.80	4-11
1986-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-47	1459.17	1570.88	31.24%	67.73%	-19.38	4-12
1986-09-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-7	1622.43	1390.96	76.43%	22.71%	+12.60	1-0
1986-09-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1635.03	1546.04	58.98%	39.90%	-11.52	1-1
1986-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 26-17	1623.51	1421.05	77.88%	21.30%	+7.23	2-1
1986-09-28	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-16	1630.74	1548.79	57.99%	40.87%	+17.92	3-1
1986-10-05	Indianapolis Colts	W 35-14	1648.66	1366.00	84.75%	14.62%	+7.56	4-1
1986-10-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1656.22	1492.02	73.90%	25.19%	-14.41	4-2
1986-10-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	T 10-10	1641.81	1479.04	68.67%	30.32%	-1.07	4-2
1986-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1640.74	1390.07	78.34%	20.85%	+8.82	5-2
1986-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-23	1649.56	1426.12	75.60%	23.53%	-30.67	5-3
1986-11-09	St. Louis Cardinals	W 43-17	1618.89	1365.01	82.51%	16.79%	+9.68	6-3
1986-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-14	1628.57	1585.57	52.47%	46.37%	-16.76	6-4
1986-11-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-0	1611.81	1443.59	74.34%	24.76%	+12.53	7-4
1986-12-01	New York Giants	L 17-21	1624.34	1655.14	48.12%	50.72%	-10.88	7-5
1986-12-07	New York Jets	W 24-10	1613.46	1576.94	57.72%	41.14%	+17.43	8-5
1986-12-14	@ New England Patriots	W 29-24	1630.89	1611.30	49.11%	49.73%	+12.56	9-5
1986-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1643.45	1581.73	61.20%	37.69%	+13.50	10-5
1986-09-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-0	1542.05	1493.08	59.45%	39.42%	+24.45	1-0
1986-09-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1566.50	1499.65	61.90%	37.01%	+10.26	2-0
1986-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 38-31	1576.76	1621.30	40.03%	58.84%	+17.56	3-0
1986-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-19	1594.32	1581.69	48.11%	50.73%	-12.16	3-1
1986-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 33-7	1582.16	1501.21	63.78%	35.14%	+20.30	4-1
1986-10-12	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-14	1602.46	1558.36	52.63%	46.21%	-11.89	4-2
1986-10-19	New York Giants	W 17-12	1590.57	1626.72	47.35%	51.49%	+13.01	5-2
1986-10-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1603.58	1628.90	42.71%	56.15%	-12.79	5-3
1986-11-02	New York Jets	L 7-38	1590.79	1598.83	51.39%	47.45%	-32.32	5-4
1986-11-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-27	1558.47	1494.85	55.41%	43.44%	-27.97	5-5
1986-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-34	1530.50	1480.74	53.44%	45.40%	-31.36	5-6
1986-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1499.14	1448.09	59.74%	39.14%	+8.87	6-6
1986-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1508.01	1549.90	40.40%	58.47%	+27.19	7-6
1986-12-08	Los Angeles Raiders	W 37-0	1535.20	1586.29	45.21%	53.63%	+36.84	8-6
1986-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-24	1572.04	1472.97	60.36%	38.52%	+13.79	9-6
1986-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 41-16	1585.83	1615.43	48.29%	50.55%	+28.56	10-6
1986-09-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-16	1422.10	1535.90	36.54%	62.36%	-10.14	0-1
1986-09-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-33	1411.96	1442.02	42.04%	56.82%	-21.28	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-17	1390.68	1356.52	51.20%	47.63%	-15.30	0-3
1986-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1375.38	1535.72	30.61%	68.37%	-16.99	0-4
1986-10-05	New York Giants	L 6-13	1358.39	1601.44	21.57%	77.60%	-6.46	0-5
1986-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-19	1351.93	1360.29	45.10%	53.74%	+20.12	1-5
1986-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1372.05	1571.90	21.55%	77.62%	-6.45	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-37	1365.60	1574.78	20.66%	78.53%	-13.01	1-7
1986-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1352.59	1475.84	35.30%	63.62%	+12.42	2-7
1986-11-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-43	1365.01	1618.89	16.79%	82.51%	-9.68	2-8
1986-11-16	New Orleans Saints	L 7-16	1355.33	1473.65	35.94%	62.97%	-12.21	2-9
1986-11-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-14	1343.12	1506.73	30.22%	68.77%	+23.24	3-9
1986-11-30	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1366.36	1627.27	19.90%	79.31%	-3.90	3-10
1986-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 10-10	1362.46	1459.70	33.05%	65.90%	+0.92	3-10
1986-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 7-27	1363.38	1683.01	12.17%	87.28%	-6.14	3-11
1986-12-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-17	1357.24	1244.88	67.81%	31.16%	+7.06	4-11
1986-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-31	1390.96	1622.43	22.71%	76.43%	-12.60	0-1
1986-09-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1378.36	1432.45	44.79%	54.06%	-18.26	0-2
1986-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1360.10	1440.67	35.19%	63.73%	+14.36	1-2
1986-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1374.46	1473.51	38.52%	60.36%	-7.55	1-3
1986-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1366.91	1543.80	23.85%	75.27%	-6.62	1-4
1986-10-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-30	1360.29	1351.93	53.74%	45.10%	-20.12	1-5
1986-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-38	1340.17	1409.49	36.67%	62.23%	-23.13	1-6
1986-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1317.04	1482.20	25.08%	74.01%	-7.51	1-7
1986-11-02	Buffalo Bills	W 34-28	1309.53	1357.85	45.61%	53.24%	+14.72	2-7
1986-11-09	Chicago Bears	L 3-23	1324.25	1687.60	12.16%	87.29%	-6.13	2-8
1986-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-31	1318.12	1351.80	41.54%	57.33%	-23.03	2-9
1986-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 17-38	1295.09	1414.50	35.80%	63.11%	-18.59	2-10
1986-11-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-45	1276.50	1516.93	17.89%	81.38%	-11.44	2-11
1986-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-48	1265.06	1703.13	6.58%	93.09%	-4.31	2-12
1986-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 7-21	1260.75	1367.66	37.46%	61.43%	-15.87	2-13
1986-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1244.88	1357.24	31.16%	67.81%	-7.06	2-14
1986-09-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-14	1541.05	1471.48	62.26%	36.64%	+21.56	1-0
1986-09-14	Los Angeles Raiders	W 10-6	1562.61	1556.48	53.42%	45.42%	+10.28	2-0
1986-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-27	1572.89	1519.74	53.93%	44.92%	+8.80	3-0
1986-09-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-14	1581.69	1594.32	50.73%	48.11%	+12.16	4-0
1986-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-6	1593.85	1409.27	71.28%	27.75%	+8.89	5-0
1986-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-30	1602.74	1536.56	55.78%	43.07%	-30.84	5-1
1986-10-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-21	1571.90	1372.05	77.62%	21.55%	+6.45	6-1
1986-10-27	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1578.35	1613.71	41.30%	57.56%	-12.37	6-2
1986-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 44-38	1565.98	1528.82	57.81%	41.05%	+11.38	7-2
1986-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-7	1577.36	1360.01	74.95%	24.16%	+8.21	8-2
1986-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-6	1585.57	1628.57	46.37%	52.47%	+16.76	9-2
1986-11-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-14	1602.33	1574.84	56.46%	42.40%	+24.94	10-2
1986-11-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1627.27	1366.36	79.31%	19.90%	+3.90	11-2
1986-12-07	New York Giants	L 14-24	1631.17	1666.02	47.53%	51.30%	-17.00	11-3
1986-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 30-31	1614.17	1610.12	46.88%	51.96%	-5.30	11-4
1986-12-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-14	1608.87	1468.18	65.90%	33.05%	+9.91	12-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1987-01-03	Washington Redskins	L 13-27	1720.91	1634.16	65.13%	34.87%	-27.21	0-1
1987-01-03	New York Jets	W 23-20	1590.26	1521.83	62.69%	37.31%	+7.22	1-0
1987-01-11	Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1597.48	1599.53	52.83%	47.17%	-10.22	1-1
1987-01-04	New England Patriots	W 22-17	1586.87	1613.51	49.29%	50.71%	+12.66	1-0
1987-01-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1599.53	1597.48	47.17%	52.83%	+10.22	2-0
1987-01-25	@ New York Giants	L 20-39	1609.75	1745.79	31.37%	68.63%	-15.27	2-1
1986-12-28	@ New York Jets	L 15-35	1534.71	1495.61	52.50%	47.50%	-26.22	0-1
1986-12-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-19	1568.23	1618.78	39.74%	60.26%	-15.38	0-1
1987-01-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-22	1613.51	1586.87	50.71%	49.29%	-12.66	0-1
1987-01-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 49-3	1697.35	1656.95	58.85%	41.15%	+31.18	1-0
1987-01-11	Washington Redskins	W 17-0	1728.53	1661.37	62.52%	37.48%	+17.26	2-0
1987-01-25	Denver Broncos	W 39-20	1745.79	1609.75	68.63%	31.37%	+15.27	3-0
1986-12-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-15	1495.61	1534.71	47.50%	52.50%	+26.22	1-0
1987-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-23	1521.83	1590.26	37.31%	62.69%	-7.22	1-1
1987-01-04	@ New York Giants	L 3-49	1656.95	1697.35	41.15%	58.85%	-31.17	0-1
1986-12-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-7	1618.78	1568.23	60.26%	39.74%	+15.38	1-0
1987-01-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-13	1634.16	1720.91	34.87%	65.13%	+27.21	2-0
1987-01-11	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1661.37	1728.53	37.48%	62.52%	-17.26	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1986-12-21	19.02%	Indianapolis Colts	1310.82	30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1538.13	24
2	1986-11-09	19.34%	San Diego Chargers	1434.79	9	@ Denver Broncos	1658.43	3
3	1986-10-19	23.38%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1506.43	23	Chicago Bears	1731.34	7
4	1986-11-02	23.53%	@ New Orleans Saints	1426.12	23	San Francisco 49ers	1649.56	10
5	1986-12-07	23.69%	Indianapolis Colts	1272.26	28	@ Atlanta Falcons	1450.69	23
6	1986-12-14	24.42%	@ Houston Oilers	1332.56	23	Minnesota Vikings	1547.39	10
7	1986-11-30	24.83%	Philadelphia Eagles	1439.23	33	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1606.76	27
8	1986-10-12	25.19%	Minnesota Vikings	1492.02	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1656.22	24
9	1986-11-03	26.17%	Los Angeles Rams	1546.63	20	@ Chicago Bears	1701.82	17
10	1986-11-30	27.81%	Atlanta Falcons	1431.05	20	@ Miami Dolphins	1571.61	14
11	1986-11-30	27.88%	Buffalo Bills	1343.51	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1483.49	14
12	1986-12-07	28.04%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1469.61	37	Denver Broncos	1651.66	10
13	1986-12-07	28.39%	Cincinnati Bengals	1514.70	31	@ New England Patriots	1650.26	7
14	1986-10-19	29.62%	Green Bay Packers	1376.53	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1501.70	14
15	1986-09-07	30.16%	Houston Oilers	1379.96	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1500.61	3
16	1986-11-23	30.22%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1343.12	23	Kansas City Chiefs	1506.73	14
17	1986-11-09	30.66%	@ Houston Oilers	1336.21	32	Cincinnati Bengals	1496.14	28
18	1986-09-28	32.57%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1427.30	34	Los Angeles Rams	1571.78	20
19	1986-12-13	32.72%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1459.65	45	@ New York Jets	1559.52	24
20	1987-01-03 *	34.87%	Washington Redskins	1634.16	27	@ Chicago Bears	1720.91	13
21	1986-09-21	34.92%	Atlanta Falcons	1463.30	37	@ Dallas Cowboys	1545.93	35
22	1986-09-21	35.19%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1360.10	24	@ Detroit Lions	1440.67	20
23	1986-11-24	35.28%	@ Miami Dolphins	1525.12	45	New York Jets	1648.49	3
24	1986-11-02	35.30%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1352.59	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1475.84	10
25	1986-11-09	36.15%	@ Buffalo Bills	1343.13	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1459.93	12

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1986-11-24	46.49	@ Miami Dolphins	45	1525.12	35.28%	New York Jets	3	1648.49	63.64%
2	1986-12-07	41.54	@ Kansas City Chiefs	37	1469.61	28.04%	Denver Broncos	10	1651.66	70.99%
3	1986-09-07	41.03	Houston Oilers	31	1379.96	30.16%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1500.61	68.84%
4	1986-12-07	38.96	Cincinnati Bengals	31	1514.70	28.39%	@ New England Patriots	7	1650.26	70.63%
5	1986-12-08	36.84	@ Seattle Seahawks	37	1535.20	45.21%	Los Angeles Raiders	0	1586.29	53.63%
6	1986-12-14	34.59	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1536.29	43.83%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1553.66	55.02%
7	1986-12-13	34.21	Pittsburgh Steelers	45	1459.65	32.72%	@ New York Jets	24	1559.52	66.24%
8	1986-10-19	34.09	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1506.43	23.38%	Chicago Bears	7	1731.34	75.75%
9	1986-11-02	32.33	New York Jets	38	1598.83	47.45%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1590.79	51.39%
10	1986-10-26	31.78	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1406.92	37.41%	Cincinnati Bengals	9	1514.22	61.49%
11	1986-11-16	31.36	@ Cincinnati Bengals	34	1480.74	45.40%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1530.50	53.44%
12	1987-01-04 *	31.18	@ New York Giants	49	1697.35	58.85%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1656.95	41.15%
13	1986-10-12	30.84	@ Dallas Cowboys	30	1536.56	43.07%	Washington Redskins	6	1602.74	55.78%
14	1986-11-02	30.67	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1426.12	23.53%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1649.56	75.60%
15	1986-12-14	30.30	@ Houston Oilers	23	1332.56	24.42%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1547.39	74.68%
16	1986-09-07	29.99	@ San Diego Chargers	50	1506.85	42.21%	Miami Dolphins	28	1579.19	56.65%
17	1986-12-21	29.71	@ Cincinnati Bengals	52	1519.08	51.65%	New York Jets	21	1525.31	47.19%
18	1986-12-20	28.56	@ Seattle Seahawks	41	1585.83	48.29%	Denver Broncos	16	1615.43	50.55%
19	1986-09-07	28.06	Atlanta Falcons	31	1413.96	44.61%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1425.82	54.24%
20	1986-09-28	27.99	@ Philadelphia Eagles	34	1427.30	32.57%	Los Angeles Rams	20	1571.78	66.38%
21	1986-11-09	27.98	@ Kansas City Chiefs	27	1494.85	43.44%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1558.47	55.41%
22	1987-01-03 *	27.21	Washington Redskins	27	1634.16	34.87%	@ Chicago Bears	13	1720.91	65.13%
23	1986-11-27	27.20	Seattle Seahawks	31	1508.01	40.40%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1549.90	58.47%
24	1986-09-28	26.41	@ Minnesota Vikings	42	1476.67	59.44%	Green Bay Packers	7	1427.80	39.44%
25	1986-12-28 *	26.22	@ New York Jets	35	1495.61	47.50%	Kansas City Chiefs	15	1534.71	52.50%