1985 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1963

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

3.90 wins above expected

15 wins · 11.10 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3.42 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.42 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	8	8	.500	-	287	294	-7	7.82	+0.18
2	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	1	441	437	+4	7.73	-0.73
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	9	.438	1	379	355	+24	8.78	-1.78
4	Houston Oilers	5	11	.312	3	284	412	-128	5.11	-0.11

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	4	.750	-	428	320	+108	10.84	+1.16
2	New York Jets Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	393	264	+129	8.79	+2.21
3	New England Patriots Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	362	290	+72	8.62	+2.38
4	Indianapolis Colts	5	11	.312	7	320	386	-66	5.57	-0.57
5	Buffalo Bills	2	14	.125	10	200	381	-181	4.93	-2.93

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	-	354	308	+46	9.07	+2.93
2	Denver Broncos	11	5	.688	1	380	329	+51	9.76	+1.24
3	Seattle Seahawks	8	8	.500	4	349	303	+46	8.81	-0.81
4	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	4	467	435	+32	7.66	+0.34
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6	10	.375	6	317	360	-43	7.83	-1.83

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	15	1	.938	-	456	198	+258	11.10	+3.90
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	7	337	355	-18	8.30	-0.30
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	8	346	359	-13	7.06	-0.06
4	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	8	307	366	-59	6.47	+0.53
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	13	294	448	-154	5.42	-3.42

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	6	.625	-	357	333	+24	8.94	+1.06
2	New York Giants Playoffs	10	6	.625	-	399	283	+116	9.61	+0.39
3	Washington Redskins	10	6	.625	-	297	312	-15	8.60	+1.40
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	.438	3	286	310	-24	7.29	-0.29
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	11	.312	5	278	414	-136	8.06	-3.06

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	11	5	.688	-	340	277	+63	9.75	+1.25
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	411	263	+148	11.33	-1.33
3	New Orleans Saints	5	11	.312	6	294	401	-107	6.19	-1.19
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	7	282	452	-170	4.54	-0.54

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

New England Patriots 26

New York Jets 14

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 24

Cleveland Browns (1st) 21

Jan 4

New England Patriots 27

Los Angeles Raiders 20

Jan 5

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 31

Miami Dolphins 14

Jan 12

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 17

San Francisco 49ers 3

Dec 29

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams 20

Dallas Cowboys 0

Jan 4

Chicago Bears 21

New York Giants 0

Jan 5

Conference Championship

Chicago Bears 24

Los Angeles Rams 0

Jan 12

Super Bowl

Chicago Bears 46

New England Patriots 10

Jan 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1759	15	11.10	+3.90	99.84%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1715	10	11.33	-1.33	30.66%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1682	12	10.84	+1.16	82.76%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1653	12	9.07	+2.93	96.96%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1625	11	9.76	+1.24	82.73%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1615	10	9.61	+0.39	68.08%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1592	11	8.62	+2.38	94.44%	0	6	7	9	10	12	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1582	10	8.60	+1.40	84.63%	0	6	7	9	10	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1580	11	8.79	+2.21	93.31%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1567	8	8.81	-0.81	43.30%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1554	11	9.75	+1.25	83.85%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1540	10	8.94	+1.06	79.93%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1511	8	7.66	+0.34	67.63%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1501	8	8.30	-0.30	54.34%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1496	7	7.73	-0.73	45.44%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1487	7	8.78	-1.78	23.96%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1484	8	7.82	+0.18	64.83%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1468	6	7.83	-1.83	24.15%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1450	7	7.29	-0.29	55.27%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1426	7	6.47	+0.53	71.55%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1397	7	7.06	-0.06	60.09%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1372	5	6.19	-1.19	35.73%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1371	5	8.06	-3.06	8.55%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1364	5	5.57	-0.57	49.65%	0	3	4	6	7	8	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1354	4	4.54	-0.54	50.63%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1299	5	5.11	-0.11	59.86%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1289	2	5.42	-3.42	4.39%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1268	2	4.93	-2.93	7.65%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	-
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	-	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-3 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.45%	2.90%	2.23%	1.56%	0.22%	0.67%	8.04%
7–13	0.45%	1.79%	5.58%	3.79%	2.46%	1.12%	0.67%	15.85%
14–20	2.90%	5.58%	4.91%	4.91%	3.57%	2.01%	0.67%	24.55%
21–27	2.23%	3.79%	4.91%	4.91%	5.36%	1.12%	0.89%	23.21%
28–34	1.56%	2.46%	3.57%	5.36%	0.89%	1.56%	0.67%	16.07%
35–41	0.22%	1.12%	2.01%	1.12%	1.56%	1.34%	0.45%	7.81%
42+	0.67%	0.67%	0.67%	0.89%	0.67%	0.45%	0.45%	4.46%
Total	8.04%	15.85%	24.55%	23.21%	16.07%	7.81%	4.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.53	21.53	+0.00
SD	10.93	10.93	15.51
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	62	62	+44
Min	0	0	-44

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.62	28.25	-10.62
SD	9.23	10.91	14.83
CV	0.52	0.39	—
Max	31	44	+16
Min	0	10	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.50	23.81	-11.31
SD	7.40	12.61	15.89
CV	0.59	0.53	—
Max	24	49	+20
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.50	12.38	+16.12
SD	9.25	10.42	13.75
CV	0.32	0.84	—
Max	45	38	+44
Min	16	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.56	27.31	+0.25
SD	12.08	9.94	13.26
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	50	44	+26
Min	6	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	18.38	-0.44
SD	8.15	10.56	13.12
CV	0.45	0.57	—
Max	35	37	+18
Min	7	6	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	20.81	+1.50
SD	10.85	12.55	18.55
CV	0.49	0.60	—
Max	44	50	+30
Min	0	7	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.75	20.56	+3.19
SD	9.69	7.32	9.42
CV	0.41	0.36	—
Max	44	31	+20
Min	10	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	56.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	22.88	-3.69
SD	11.65	8.12	15.55
CV	0.61	0.36	—
Max	41	43	+21
Min	3	9	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	22.19	-1.12
SD	10.57	10.90	17.00
CV	0.50	0.49	—
Max	43	43	+33
Min	3	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.75	25.75	-8.00
SD	12.23	8.99	12.27
CV	0.69	0.35	—
Max	44	45	+17
Min	0	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	24.12	-4.12
SD	12.82	10.90	18.85
CV	0.64	0.45	—
Max	49	45	+32
Min	3	6	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	22.50	-2.69
SD	14.82	9.59	18.17
CV	0.75	0.43	—
Max	47	36	+28
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.12	19.25	+2.88
SD	10.02	12.54	15.36
CV	0.45	0.65	—
Max	35	40	+31
Min	3	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	17.31	+3.94
SD	11.39	9.24	14.95
CV	0.54	0.53	—
Max	46	30	+32
Min	3	0	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.75	20.00	+6.75
SD	8.82	10.03	12.45
CV	0.33	0.50	—
Max	41	38	+31
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	22.44	-0.81
SD	7.52	9.45	10.65
CV	0.35	0.42	—
Max	35	41	+19
Min	9	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	18.12	+4.50
SD	8.62	8.79	10.09
CV	0.38	0.49	—
Max	38	35	+19
Min	7	3	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	25.06	-6.69
SD	7.58	10.46	13.18
CV	0.41	0.42	—
Max	30	47	+26
Min	3	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.94	17.69	+7.25
SD	6.02	11.01	11.08
CV	0.24	0.62	—
Max	35	35	+31
Min	16	0	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.56	16.50	+8.06
SD	14.81	9.03	18.67
CV	0.60	0.55	—
Max	62	31	+39
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.88	19.38	-1.50
SD	9.03	8.14	11.31
CV	0.51	0.42	—
Max	37	35	+23
Min	0	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.69	22.19	+1.50
SD	11.26	13.96	16.27
CV	0.48	0.63	—
Max	45	54	+42
Min	7	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.19	27.19	+2.00
SD	12.33	13.17	12.68
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	54	49	+33
Min	7	7	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.69	16.44	+9.25
SD	8.26	7.39	13.53
CV	0.32	0.45	—
Max	38	28	+28
Min	10	3	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.81	18.94	+2.88
SD	12.15	10.10	14.50
CV	0.56	0.53	—
Max	49	35	+30
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.38	25.88	-8.50
SD	12.21	8.48	15.30
CV	0.70	0.33	—
Max	43	46	+15
Min	0	10	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	28.00	-9.62
SD	9.26	13.21	11.68
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	38	62	+16
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.56	19.50	-0.94
SD	10.98	12.37	18.96
CV	0.59	0.63	—
Max	44	45	+34
Min	3	3	-35

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.47	+0.3
Allowed	0.66	-0.4
Differential	0.84	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	15	11.10	+3.90
2	Los Angeles Raiders	12	9.07	+2.93
3	New England Patriots	11	8.62	+2.38
4	New York Jets	11	8.79	+2.21
5	Washington Redskins	10	8.60	+1.40

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	5.42	-3.42
2	St. Louis Cardinals	5	8.06	-3.06
3	Buffalo Bills	2	4.93	-2.93
4	Kansas City Chiefs	6	7.83	-1.83
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	8.78	-1.78

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	12	Sep 8 – Nov 24	1 in 139
2	Los Angeles Rams	7	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 55
3	New York Jets	5	Sep 15 – Oct 14	1 in 43
4	Los Angeles Raiders	6	Nov 17 – Dec 23	1 in 40
5	New England Patriots	6	Oct 13 – Nov 17	1 in 36

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	7	Oct 6 – Nov 17	1 in 100
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	Sep 8 – Nov 3	1 in 45
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 7 – Oct 27	1 in 35
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 24 – Dec 15	1 in 20
5	Buffalo Bills	6	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	47.94%	29.43%	17.57%	5.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.67%	31.62%	31.16%	11.54%
Cincinnati Bengals	23.89%	31.50%	31.72%	12.89%
Houston Oilers	2.49%	7.45%	19.55%	70.51%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	64.63%	23.69%	9.73%	1.74%	0.22%
New York Jets	18.76%	36.15%	31.79%	10.41%	2.90%
New England Patriots	15.48%	33.46%	35.87%	11.87%	3.31%
Indianapolis Colts	0.80%	4.24%	13.81%	44.01%	37.14%
Buffalo Bills	0.33%	2.47%	8.80%	31.97%	56.43%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	39.07%	25.40%	17.22%	11.80%	6.51%
Los Angeles Raiders	24.33%	24.13%	21.49%	17.44%	12.62%
Seattle Seahawks	19.92%	22.94%	22.78%	19.80%	14.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.46%	15.07%	20.14%	25.55%	29.79%
San Diego Chargers	7.22%	12.46%	18.38%	25.41%	36.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	79.50%	15.12%	4.07%	1.07%	0.24%
Green Bay Packers	12.44%	41.48%	25.15%	14.37%	6.56%
Minnesota Vikings	4.52%	21.07%	29.84%	26.87%	17.71%
Detroit Lions	2.58%	15.76%	25.87%	30.53%	25.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.96%	6.58%	15.07%	27.15%	50.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New York Giants	37.33%	24.74%	17.77%	12.56%	7.61%
Dallas Cowboys	24.39%	24.35%	21.79%	17.37%	12.10%
Washington Redskins	19.94%	22.35%	22.20%	20.23%	15.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	12.06%	17.34%	21.25%	24.64%	24.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.29%	11.21%	17.00%	25.20%	40.31%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	71.56%	26.09%	2.17%	0.18%
Los Angeles Rams	27.09%	62.78%	9.04%	1.09%
New Orleans Saints	1.20%	9.07%	63.09%	26.65%
Atlanta Falcons	0.15%	2.06%	25.70%	72.09%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	35.62%	21.00%	12.39%	8.91%	7.12%	4.81%	3.52%	2.77%	1.71%	1.03%	0.63%	0.32%	0.12%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	17.56%	15.52%	12.54%	10.79%	9.17%	7.76%	7.01%	5.50%	4.53%	3.92%	2.61%	1.77%	1.02%	0.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05%	9.82%	13.56%	10.83%	10.20%	10.95%	8.80%	7.80%	7.16%	5.52%	4.28%	2.81%	1.68%	0.54%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.79%	10.76%	10.21%	10.46%	9.39%	8.68%	8.77%	7.51%	6.75%	6.49%	4.72%	3.64%	2.14%	0.69%
New York Jets	7.49%	8.30%	9.12%	10.48%	11.27%	10.02%	9.36%	9.30%	7.79%	5.93%	4.77%	3.22%	1.85%	1.11%
Seattle Seahawks	7.28%	9.23%	9.20%	10.09%	9.42%	9.00%	9.27%	8.20%	7.70%	7.44%	5.41%	4.32%	2.56%	0.87%
New England Patriots	6.18%	7.14%	8.16%	9.82%	10.66%	9.93%	10.06%	10.22%	8.45%	6.73%	5.43%	3.79%	2.12%	1.29%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.35%	4.87%	7.31%	7.28%	8.29%	9.57%	9.37%	10.04%	10.62%	9.33%	8.51%	6.37%	4.37%	1.72%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.32%	4.68%	6.82%	6.99%	7.94%	9.47%	9.30%	9.64%	10.56%	9.59%	8.61%	6.62%	5.22%	2.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.93%	4.46%	5.11%	6.50%	6.96%	7.74%	8.84%	9.31%	9.57%	10.73%	9.43%	8.78%	6.68%	2.97%
San Diego Chargers	2.18%	3.59%	4.37%	5.80%	6.24%	7.02%	8.40%	8.76%	9.68%	11.32%	10.42%	10.20%	8.07%	3.96%
Indianapolis Colts	0.13%	0.30%	0.53%	0.88%	1.38%	2.06%	2.91%	4.55%	6.06%	8.67%	13.79%	17.52%	17.90%	23.32%
Houston Oilers	0.08%	0.24%	0.49%	0.69%	1.18%	1.88%	2.55%	3.62%	5.38%	7.26%	11.11%	16.03%	26.20%	23.27%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%	0.10%	0.20%	0.47%	0.77%	1.12%	1.83%	2.78%	4.05%	6.04%	10.28%	14.60%	20.07%	37.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	37.68%	21.51%	14.87%	10.08%	6.79%	4.25%	2.12%	1.23%	0.73%	0.38%	0.22%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	27.56%	25.99%	18.68%	9.79%	6.44%	4.80%	2.65%	1.84%	1.04%	0.59%	0.35%	0.17%	0.07%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	10.21%	11.59%	13.62%	16.56%	15.55%	11.82%	7.02%	5.06%	3.56%	2.23%	1.41%	0.83%	0.41%	0.13%
New York Giants	9.23%	13.08%	14.05%	12.48%	10.55%	9.28%	8.86%	6.36%	5.38%	4.29%	2.97%	2.07%	1.05%	0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	5.13%	8.34%	10.31%	11.19%	10.81%	10.42%	10.88%	8.29%	7.40%	6.29%	4.67%	3.45%	2.00%	0.82%
Washington Redskins	4.03%	6.55%	8.57%	10.17%	10.12%	9.90%	11.20%	9.13%	8.74%	7.40%	5.62%	4.44%	2.90%	1.25%
Green Bay Packers	2.46%	4.45%	6.09%	8.67%	11.59%	13.51%	10.75%	11.05%	8.41%	7.25%	6.28%	4.49%	3.12%	1.89%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.81%	3.94%	5.93%	7.52%	8.52%	8.96%	10.96%	9.85%	10.35%	9.81%	8.18%	7.04%	4.72%	2.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.77%	1.93%	3.11%	4.82%	5.59%	6.42%	9.37%	8.93%	10.92%	11.61%	11.45%	11.55%	8.91%	4.62%
Minnesota Vikings	0.58%	1.32%	2.21%	3.69%	5.63%	8.00%	8.71%	11.60%	10.54%	11.07%	11.16%	10.10%	8.29%	7.10%
Detroit Lions	0.32%	0.69%	1.31%	2.35%	4.00%	5.74%	6.79%	9.38%	10.00%	11.13%	12.40%	12.59%	11.65%	11.65%
New Orleans Saints	0.15%	0.40%	0.78%	1.74%	2.51%	3.88%	6.03%	9.29%	12.06%	13.21%	13.90%	13.45%	13.01%	9.60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.18%	0.41%	0.75%	1.49%	2.32%	3.29%	5.26%	6.54%	8.46%	11.50%	14.90%	19.06%	25.81%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.18%	0.41%	0.71%	1.37%	2.74%	4.33%	6.29%	9.88%	14.84%	24.78%	34.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	25.14%	15.95%	12.07%	9.02%	7.65%	6.26%	5.11%	3.95%	3.26%	2.75%	2.07%	1.75%	1.09%	1.10%	0.74%	0.56%	0.40%	0.34%	0.24%	0.19%	0.13%	0.10%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Chicago Bears	18.80%	14.28%	13.73%	10.38%	8.55%	7.46%	4.99%	4.43%	3.29%	3.00%	2.35%	2.10%	1.41%	1.25%	0.94%	0.81%	0.55%	0.49%	0.37%	0.28%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	15.93%	16.02%	10.85%	10.58%	7.16%	6.87%	4.92%	4.92%	3.75%	3.75%	2.55%	2.50%	1.84%	1.82%	1.49%	1.36%	0.85%	0.77%	0.57%	0.49%	0.32%	0.27%	0.16%	0.11%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	6.04%	5.98%	6.92%	6.51%	7.38%	6.63%	7.59%	7.14%	6.75%	6.63%	5.15%	5.43%	3.59%	3.76%	2.51%	2.59%	1.95%	1.98%	1.24%	1.22%	0.80%	0.76%	0.51%	0.40%	0.27%	0.17%	0.08%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	7.06%	8.21%	7.58%	7.61%	6.89%	6.55%	5.94%	5.64%	5.01%	4.89%	4.41%	3.92%	3.67%	3.47%	2.99%	2.76%	2.48%	2.14%	1.97%	1.70%	1.28%	1.13%	0.89%	0.70%	0.50%	0.33%	0.18%	0.07%
New York Giants	5.37%	5.85%	7.17%	6.66%	7.28%	6.26%	6.55%	5.54%	5.59%	4.60%	4.89%	4.26%	4.52%	3.59%	3.36%	3.00%	2.91%	2.32%	2.24%	1.89%	1.63%	1.30%	1.06%	0.84%	0.61%	0.40%	0.19%	0.10%
Los Angeles Raiders	3.42%	4.84%	5.05%	5.39%	5.57%	5.25%	5.49%	5.26%	5.27%	4.80%	5.14%	4.39%	4.81%	4.08%	4.27%	3.62%	3.82%	3.09%	3.39%	2.83%	2.45%	2.11%	1.72%	1.53%	1.09%	0.73%	0.39%	0.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.78%	3.25%	3.77%	5.29%	5.29%	7.00%	5.11%	6.17%	5.44%	5.84%	5.06%	5.46%	4.74%	5.00%	4.31%	3.96%	3.67%	3.70%	3.04%	2.72%	2.32%	2.04%	1.59%	1.30%	0.97%	0.67%	0.35%	0.17%
Dallas Cowboys	2.77%	3.34%	4.62%	4.45%	5.38%	4.99%	5.90%	5.15%	5.60%	4.85%	5.45%	5.02%	5.33%	4.50%	4.41%	4.09%	3.82%	3.32%	3.31%	2.95%	2.44%	2.24%	1.89%	1.57%	1.08%	0.80%	0.49%	0.25%
New York Jets	2.31%	3.65%	3.74%	4.61%	4.55%	4.96%	5.00%	5.69%	5.13%	6.09%	5.23%	5.40%	4.57%	5.18%	4.55%	4.72%	3.76%	3.98%	3.19%	3.02%	2.42%	2.21%	1.81%	1.48%	1.07%	0.80%	0.59%	0.29%
Seattle Seahawks	2.28%	3.66%	4.07%	4.78%	4.84%	4.89%	5.17%	5.15%	5.25%	4.88%	5.38%	4.44%	5.00%	4.39%	4.72%	4.11%	4.25%	3.48%	3.90%	3.30%	2.89%	2.29%	2.12%	1.75%	1.35%	0.90%	0.51%	0.25%
New England Patriots	1.87%	3.02%	3.19%	4.00%	4.14%	4.47%	4.63%	5.24%	5.01%	5.77%	5.17%	5.34%	4.93%	5.43%	5.13%	4.95%	4.15%	4.23%	3.54%	3.39%	2.87%	2.50%	2.07%	1.69%	1.28%	0.92%	0.69%	0.38%
Washington Redskins	1.97%	2.58%	3.56%	3.68%	4.30%	4.38%	5.15%	4.86%	5.10%	4.83%	5.00%	5.01%	5.22%	5.17%	4.57%	4.61%	4.30%	4.17%	3.84%	3.62%	3.03%	2.68%	2.36%	2.09%	1.67%	1.14%	0.73%	0.39%
Green Bay Packers	1.31%	1.63%	2.61%	2.44%	3.34%	3.27%	4.50%	4.49%	5.36%	5.34%	5.87%	6.22%	5.23%	5.49%	5.03%	5.33%	4.47%	4.36%	3.87%	3.67%	3.26%	3.18%	2.67%	2.14%	1.85%	1.43%	1.05%	0.59%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.85%	1.29%	2.09%	2.42%	3.03%	3.12%	3.93%	3.65%	4.38%	4.06%	4.61%	4.55%	5.51%	4.84%	5.26%	4.77%	5.41%	4.57%	5.08%	4.49%	4.54%	3.86%	3.79%	3.06%	2.61%	2.04%	1.41%	0.79%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.58%	1.27%	1.71%	2.54%	2.89%	3.69%	3.37%	3.95%	4.31%	4.36%	4.49%	4.86%	4.95%	5.15%	5.20%	4.87%	5.30%	5.42%	4.80%	4.66%	4.40%	4.34%	3.52%	3.15%	2.36%	1.99%	1.21%	0.64%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.57%	1.24%	1.71%	2.41%	2.79%	3.44%	3.23%	3.76%	4.24%	4.16%	4.52%	4.62%	4.86%	5.05%	4.97%	4.86%	5.10%	5.45%	4.73%	4.89%	4.36%	4.41%	3.59%	3.50%	2.70%	2.44%	1.47%	0.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.72%	1.47%	1.80%	2.24%	2.51%	2.76%	3.31%	3.45%	3.59%	3.85%	4.33%	4.02%	4.59%	4.44%	4.96%	5.04%	5.15%	4.83%	5.35%	5.18%	4.78%	4.69%	4.21%	3.97%	3.35%	2.66%	1.80%	0.95%
San Diego Chargers	0.48%	1.10%	1.37%	1.93%	2.05%	2.51%	2.83%	3.16%	3.23%	3.52%	3.91%	3.80%	4.31%	4.18%	5.00%	4.71%	5.38%	4.69%	5.97%	5.32%	5.56%	4.72%	5.17%	4.31%	4.20%	3.06%	2.21%	1.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.30%	0.54%	0.93%	1.11%	1.60%	1.72%	2.27%	2.47%	2.77%	2.92%	3.33%	3.53%	4.33%	4.40%	4.63%	4.78%	5.36%	5.31%	5.81%	5.82%	5.77%	5.79%	5.86%	5.46%	5.00%	3.74%	2.78%	1.66%
Minnesota Vikings	0.22%	0.39%	0.62%	0.81%	1.13%	1.32%	1.79%	2.10%	2.52%	2.91%	3.30%	4.15%	4.09%	4.63%	4.83%	5.78%	5.07%	5.62%	5.46%	5.76%	5.66%	5.83%	5.53%	5.03%	4.71%	4.12%	3.78%	2.84%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.21%	0.37%	0.44%	0.66%	0.75%	1.19%	1.30%	1.76%	2.02%	2.37%	2.91%	3.21%	3.56%	3.89%	4.60%	4.60%	5.37%	5.10%	5.98%	6.06%	6.59%	6.28%	6.75%	6.34%	6.29%	6.09%	5.18%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.10%	0.19%	0.25%	0.40%	0.50%	0.83%	0.91%	1.21%	1.31%	1.89%	2.06%	2.74%	3.08%	3.93%	4.34%	5.01%	5.97%	5.53%	6.89%	6.51%	7.49%	6.79%	7.46%	6.98%	7.02%	5.61%	4.95%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.06%	0.07%	0.16%	0.17%	0.32%	0.34%	0.48%	0.58%	0.83%	0.98%	1.13%	1.42%	1.65%	2.18%	2.49%	3.01%	3.43%	4.41%	4.87%	6.30%	6.89%	8.23%	8.87%	9.18%	9.69%	11.18%	11.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%	0.10%	0.18%	0.24%	0.34%	0.41%	0.62%	0.76%	0.95%	1.24%	1.45%	1.70%	2.14%	2.62%	3.02%	3.45%	3.91%	4.44%	5.67%	6.04%	7.46%	7.91%	9.56%	10.31%	12.51%	12.87%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	0.15%	0.25%	0.25%	0.39%	0.52%	0.63%	0.79%	0.94%	1.23%	1.38%	1.69%	1.84%	2.44%	3.03%	3.55%	3.86%	5.22%	5.89%	7.25%	8.63%	10.77%	13.31%	11.94%	13.82%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.07%	0.10%	0.16%	0.26%	0.28%	0.45%	0.50%	0.58%	0.81%	1.05%	1.35%	1.50%	2.01%	2.27%	3.11%	3.34%	4.82%	5.35%	7.00%	7.98%	10.03%	11.17%	16.90%	18.80%
Atlanta Falcons	-	<0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.09%	0.16%	0.21%	0.32%	0.38%	0.56%	0.69%	0.98%	1.32%	1.76%	2.21%	2.45%	3.25%	4.31%	5.15%	6.33%	8.20%	10.34%	13.79%	15.82%	21.46%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	35.62%	21.10%	7.92%	11.13%	8.64%	15.60%
Denver Broncos	17.56%	15.20%	6.31%	14.17%	10.58%	36.18%
Los Angeles Raiders	9.79%	10.24%	4.29%	13.45%	10.76%	51.46%
New York Jets	7.49%	7.44%	3.84%	12.97%	13.46%	54.80%
Seattle Seahawks	7.28%	8.85%	3.79%	12.48%	10.67%	56.92%
New England Patriots	6.18%	6.11%	3.19%	12.19%	12.69%	59.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05%	11.34%	30.55%	2.93%	5.31%	43.83%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.93%	4.36%	2.16%	7.35%	7.55%	75.64%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.35%	5.67%	17.65%	2.81%	5.35%	66.16%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.32%	5.46%	16.11%	2.87%	5.26%	67.98%
San Diego Chargers	2.18%	3.46%	1.59%	6.33%	6.78%	79.67%
Indianapolis Colts	0.13%	0.34%	0.33%	0.76%	1.44%	96.99%
Houston Oilers	0.08%	0.31%	2.10%	0.22%	0.73%	96.56%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%	0.12%	0.16%	0.34%	0.78%	98.55%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	37.68%	20.57%	13.30%	13.09%	6.68%	8.68%
Chicago Bears	27.56%	27.70%	24.23%	4.74%	4.92%	10.84%
Los Angeles Rams	10.21%	9.21%	7.66%	24.11%	16.53%	32.27%
New York Giants	9.23%	13.62%	14.48%	11.07%	10.67%	40.94%
Dallas Cowboys	5.13%	8.79%	10.46%	10.03%	11.03%	54.55%
Washington Redskins	4.03%	6.91%	9.01%	9.01%	10.20%	60.85%
Green Bay Packers	2.46%	4.32%	5.66%	9.06%	11.87%	66.63%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.81%	4.14%	6.10%	6.67%	8.66%	72.61%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.77%	2.04%	3.47%	4.21%	5.47%	84.03%
Minnesota Vikings	0.58%	1.36%	2.57%	3.35%	5.62%	86.51%
Detroit Lions	0.32%	0.71%	1.55%	2.16%	4.01%	91.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.15%	0.36%	0.69%	1.74%	2.59%	94.48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.22%	0.69%	0.61%	1.37%	97.06%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.03%	0.11%	0.15%	0.40%	99.30%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+28.57%

Fortress

64.29%35.71%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 102.11 Elo pts.

22 Elo

0.046 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+4.56 points

Home-Tilted

-8+4.72+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.2

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

27%

Chicago Bears, 1st of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

41.7%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%60%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.46 · As Expected: 1.46 to 2 · Elevated: 2 to 2.73 · High Variance: 2.73 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.13 · Close: 4.13 to 5.58 · Off Target: 5.58 to 7.28 · Well Off Target: 7.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.62 · As Expected: 2.62 to 4.36 · More Than Expected: 4.36 to 6.98 · Far More Than Expected: 6.98 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.73 wins

As Expected

01.825

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.11

Pinpoint

04.8610

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.84%

Chicago Bears

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

4.39%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

03.510

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.92

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

17%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.93

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.59

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.97

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.17

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.079

Within Noise

00.0970.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	86.51%	86.51%	62.54%	40.65%	27.10%
San Francisco 49ers	86.47%	86.47%	59.15%	34.65%	21.31%
Miami Dolphins	77.54%	77.54%	54.56%	35.99%	17.04%
Denver Broncos	53.49%	53.49%	31.76%	16.72%	6.77%
Los Angeles Raiders	39.27%	39.27%	23.22%	12.64%	5.69%
New York Giants	49.98%	49.98%	21.16%	8.09%	4.08%
New York Jets	32.20%	32.20%	16.94%	7.60%	2.70%
Los Angeles Rams	49.80%	49.80%	19.94%	6.22%	2.67%
New England Patriots	28.59%	28.59%	15.33%	7.00%	2.60%
Seattle Seahawks	31.49%	31.49%	15.69%	6.68%	2.27%
Washington Redskins	30.06%	30.06%	10.90%	3.74%	1.74%
Dallas Cowboys	34.45%	34.45%	11.32%	3.46%	1.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	50.72%	50.72%	15.30%	4.80%	1.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.71%	26.71%	7.89%	2.52%	0.71%
Green Bay Packers	21.18%	21.18%	6.98%	1.84%	0.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.42%	28.42%	8.04%	2.49%	0.61%
San Diego Chargers	13.11%	12.45%	5.10%	1.80%	0.52%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.89%	14.76%	5.47%	1.66%	0.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.74%	9.74%	2.08%	0.40%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.28%	16.28%	2.77%	0.39%	0.09%
Minnesota Vikings	8.97%	7.11%	1.49%	0.27%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	6.17%	4.40%	1.03%	0.20%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints	4.32%	2.41%	0.45%	0.06%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	2.21%	1.27%	0.34%	0.06%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	2.59%	2.59%	0.28%	0.04%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.98%	1.30%	0.16%	0.01%	<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.55%	0.29%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	1.12%	0.49%	0.07%	0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		27.5%0.05%	22.6%0.03%	7.4%0.23%	80.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	16.4%0.12%	13.1%0.23%	11.4%0.03%	17.4%0.05%	11.3%0.05%	23.8%0.04%	22.4%0.08%	12.4%0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	72.5%0.05%		50.4%0.11%	28.9%1.22%	100.0%<0.01%	70.3%0.09%	49.4%0.74%	25.1%1.21%	22.5%0.80%	33.3%1.11%	36.9%1.04%	50.5%0.10%	47.6%0.56%	35.4%1.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	77.4%0.03%	49.6%0.11%		28.7%1.29%	85.7%<0.01%	60.0%0.07%	49.7%0.69%	27.0%1.25%	21.6%0.80%	35.2%0.97%	32.5%1.10%	51.9%0.10%	42.0%0.59%	34.5%1.15%
Denver Broncos	92.6%0.23%	71.1%1.22%	71.3%1.29%		92.2%0.15%	82.6%0.40%	73.9%1.33%	48.2%2.04%	42.5%3.79%	54.7%4.64%	57.1%5.01%	70.8%1.31%	68.4%1.29%	56.7%2.05%
Houston Oilers	20.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	7.8%0.15%		12.5%<0.01%	13.3%0.08%	6.9%0.13%	9.7%0.10%	8.6%0.10%	13.7%0.12%	12.5%0.02%	18.1%0.07%	11.8%0.14%
Indianapolis Colts	100.0%<0.01%	29.7%0.09%	40.0%0.07%	17.4%0.40%	87.5%<0.01%		30.2%0.22%	14.6%0.38%	15.9%0.11%	10.2%0.13%	21.6%0.13%	36.8%0.09%	23.3%0.21%	19.2%0.36%
Kansas City Chiefs	83.6%0.12%	50.6%0.74%	50.3%0.69%	26.1%1.33%	86.7%0.08%	69.8%0.22%		26.5%1.34%	22.6%2.20%	34.5%2.65%	36.6%2.89%	48.0%0.72%	44.0%0.59%	36.0%1.33%
Los Angeles Raiders	86.9%0.23%	74.9%1.21%	73.0%1.25%	51.8%2.04%	93.1%0.13%	85.4%0.38%	73.5%1.34%		46.0%3.65%	57.7%4.40%	62.3%4.88%	76.0%1.21%	72.1%1.18%	61.0%2.31%
Miami Dolphins	88.6%0.03%	77.5%0.80%	78.4%0.80%	57.5%3.79%	90.3%0.10%	84.1%0.11%	77.4%2.20%	54.0%3.65%		63.4%1.12%	64.1%0.91%	77.4%0.84%	72.6%1.91%	64.7%3.51%
New England Patriots	82.6%0.05%	66.7%1.11%	64.8%0.97%	45.3%4.64%	91.4%0.10%	89.8%0.13%	65.5%2.65%	42.3%4.40%	36.6%1.12%		50.4%2.11%	69.2%1.04%	60.5%2.41%	51.6%4.16%
New York Jets	88.7%0.05%	63.1%1.04%	67.5%1.10%	42.9%5.01%	86.3%0.12%	78.4%0.13%	63.4%2.89%	37.7%4.88%	35.9%0.91%	49.6%2.11%		66.7%1.08%	60.2%2.54%	51.1%4.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.2%0.04%	49.5%0.10%	48.1%0.10%	29.2%1.31%	87.5%0.02%	63.2%0.09%	52.0%0.72%	24.0%1.21%	22.6%0.84%	30.8%1.04%	33.3%1.08%		42.2%0.53%	38.4%1.17%
San Diego Chargers	77.6%0.08%	52.4%0.56%	58.0%0.59%	31.6%1.29%	81.9%0.07%	76.7%0.21%	56.0%0.59%	27.9%1.18%	27.4%1.91%	39.5%2.41%	39.8%2.54%	57.8%0.53%		39.3%1.13%
Seattle Seahawks	87.6%0.19%	64.6%1.07%	65.5%1.15%	43.3%2.05%	88.2%0.14%	80.8%0.36%	64.0%1.33%	39.0%2.31%	35.3%3.51%	48.4%4.16%	48.9%4.58%	61.6%1.17%	60.7%1.13%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		7.4%0.03%	19.2%0.08%	20.0%0.02%	39.1%0.06%	24.1%0.05%	38.9%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	18.4%0.09%	21.9%0.03%	9.5%0.02%	41.1%0.07%	63.6%0.01%	17.7%0.06%
Chicago Bears	92.6%0.03%		73.1%1.33%	86.6%0.10%	83.9%0.15%	74.1%2.54%	89.0%0.15%	89.8%0.20%	67.9%1.36%	85.3%0.58%	51.1%1.27%	88.6%0.80%	94.1%0.02%	72.1%1.12%
Dallas Cowboys	80.8%0.08%	26.9%1.33%		70.3%0.73%	54.8%2.60%	46.0%6.74%	72.7%1.18%	72.7%0.64%	40.0%1.25%	64.7%0.61%	24.9%3.33%	73.0%1.04%	82.7%0.27%	44.6%1.26%
Detroit Lions	80.0%0.02%	13.4%0.10%	29.7%0.73%		37.8%0.22%	27.1%1.46%	53.8%0.08%	61.8%0.14%	23.2%0.87%	44.9%0.36%	13.2%0.89%	50.7%0.57%	38.5%0.01%	25.9%0.70%
Green Bay Packers	60.9%0.06%	16.1%0.15%	45.2%2.60%	62.2%0.22%		40.2%5.67%	63.8%0.38%	72.1%0.48%	35.8%2.89%	55.1%1.25%	20.6%2.73%	62.1%1.90%	78.0%0.06%	38.9%2.53%
Los Angeles Rams	75.9%0.05%	25.9%2.54%	54.0%6.74%	72.9%1.46%	59.8%5.67%		73.5%2.19%	75.9%0.55%	40.8%6.92%	66.2%3.06%	26.3%0.08%	75.7%4.90%	84.1%0.48%	48.7%5.99%
Minnesota Vikings	61.1%0.02%	11.0%0.15%	27.3%1.18%	46.2%0.08%	36.2%0.38%	26.5%2.19%		54.7%0.19%	21.8%1.19%	43.4%0.49%	13.4%1.11%	52.3%0.85%	60.9%0.02%	27.0%1.12%
New Orleans Saints	100.0%<0.01%	10.2%0.20%	27.3%0.64%	38.2%0.14%	27.9%0.48%	24.1%0.55%	45.3%0.19%		18.4%0.59%	43.3%0.24%	11.4%0.24%	44.9%0.45%	68.2%0.04%	24.8%0.55%
New York Giants	81.6%0.09%	32.1%1.36%	60.0%1.25%	76.8%0.87%	64.2%2.89%	59.2%6.92%	78.2%1.19%	81.6%0.59%		72.0%0.65%	33.5%3.35%	79.3%1.05%	88.6%0.27%	55.3%1.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	78.1%0.03%	14.7%0.58%	35.3%0.61%	55.1%0.36%	44.9%1.25%	33.8%3.06%	56.6%0.49%	56.7%0.24%	28.0%0.65%		16.5%1.35%	61.9%0.39%	73.6%0.14%	32.2%0.51%
San Francisco 49ers	90.5%0.02%	48.9%1.27%	75.1%3.33%	86.8%0.89%	79.4%2.73%	73.7%0.08%	86.6%1.11%	88.6%0.24%	66.5%3.35%	83.5%1.35%		89.0%2.22%	94.7%0.21%	70.0%2.95%
St. Louis Cardinals	58.9%0.07%	11.4%0.80%	27.0%1.04%	49.3%0.57%	37.9%1.90%	24.3%4.90%	47.7%0.85%	55.1%0.45%	20.7%1.05%	38.1%0.39%	11.0%2.22%		68.2%0.17%	25.4%0.91%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36.4%0.01%	5.9%0.02%	17.3%0.27%	61.5%0.01%	22.0%0.06%	15.9%0.48%	39.1%0.02%	31.8%0.04%	11.4%0.27%	26.4%0.14%	5.3%0.21%	31.8%0.17%		13.6%0.26%
Washington Redskins	82.3%0.06%	27.9%1.12%	55.4%1.26%	74.1%0.70%	61.1%2.53%	51.3%5.99%	73.0%1.12%	75.2%0.55%	44.7%1.24%	67.8%0.51%	30.0%2.95%	74.6%0.91%	86.4%0.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		6.9%0.03%	13.7%0.05%	10.2%0.13%	50.0%<0.01%		21.6%0.04%	7.1%0.08%				31.1%0.07%	35.7%0.01%	8.5%0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	93.1%0.03%			27.0%5.46%		71.7%0.12%	50.0%1.49%	25.8%3.67%	20.5%6.72%	31.9%2.36%	35.2%2.80%		39.0%1.17%	35.7%2.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	86.3%0.05%			26.2%5.87%		68.7%0.13%	44.5%1.57%	26.1%3.89%	18.2%7.05%	32.6%2.50%	32.6%2.95%		42.2%1.18%	33.9%3.22%
Denver Broncos	89.8%0.13%	73.0%5.46%	73.8%5.87%		91.5%0.52%	82.1%0.27%			40.0%16.72%	59.5%6.98%	60.7%7.70%	72.3%9.85%
Houston Oilers	50.0%<0.01%			8.5%0.52%		18.2%0.01%	23.8%0.13%	10.5%0.38%	7.4%0.63%	11.2%0.24%	11.1%0.28%		17.2%0.10%	13.2%0.30%
Indianapolis Colts		28.3%0.12%	31.3%0.13%	17.9%0.27%	81.8%0.01%		37.9%0.07%	14.6%0.24%				39.6%0.17%	29.7%0.07%	29.3%0.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	78.4%0.04%	50.0%1.49%	55.5%1.57%		76.2%0.13%	62.1%0.07%			19.9%5.07%	35.5%1.81%	35.5%1.89%	50.7%2.69%
Los Angeles Raiders	92.9%0.08%	74.2%3.67%	73.9%3.89%		89.5%0.38%	85.4%0.24%			40.6%13.84%	60.3%4.60%	61.6%5.30%	73.6%7.26%
Miami Dolphins		79.5%6.72%	81.8%7.05%	60.0%16.72%	92.6%0.63%		80.1%5.07%	59.4%13.84%				79.4%11.79%	75.8%4.73%	69.2%10.98%
New England Patriots		68.1%2.36%	67.4%2.50%	40.5%6.98%	88.8%0.24%		64.5%1.81%	39.7%4.60%				66.0%5.00%	61.2%1.42%	49.9%3.67%
New York Jets		64.8%2.80%	67.4%2.95%	39.3%7.70%	88.9%0.28%		64.5%1.89%	38.4%5.30%				65.1%5.62%	59.5%1.57%	49.4%4.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.9%0.07%			27.7%9.85%		60.4%0.17%	49.3%2.69%	26.4%7.26%	20.6%11.79%	34.0%5.00%	34.9%5.62%		43.9%2.20%	34.9%6.08%
San Diego Chargers	64.3%0.01%	61.0%1.17%	57.8%1.18%		82.8%0.10%	70.3%0.07%			24.2%4.73%	38.8%1.42%	40.5%1.57%	56.1%2.20%
Seattle Seahawks	91.5%0.07%	64.3%2.90%	66.1%3.22%		86.8%0.30%	70.7%0.18%			30.8%10.98%	50.1%3.67%	50.6%4.08%	65.1%6.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.8%0.13%	17.4%0.05%	25.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.01%		50.0%<0.01%		16.7%0.05%	12.5%<0.01%		50.0%0.02%		21.7%0.02%
Chicago Bears	99.2%0.13%		78.3%10.86%			79.3%18.59%		92.7%0.97%	70.9%15.31%	88.0%3.39%	55.2%22.20%	90.4%5.46%		75.3%9.59%
Dallas Cowboys	82.6%0.05%	21.7%10.86%		68.7%0.47%	55.6%2.53%	48.7%6.58%	74.4%0.86%	75.6%0.32%			23.7%12.62%		80.9%0.16%
Detroit Lions	75.0%<0.01%		31.3%0.47%			28.2%0.66%		58.1%0.03%	22.6%0.83%	44.2%0.13%	11.6%1.60%	55.1%0.27%		23.8%0.41%
Green Bay Packers	84.6%0.01%		44.4%2.53%			40.4%2.94%		72.9%0.14%	33.1%3.70%	57.9%0.64%	17.8%7.99%	65.2%1.12%		38.3%2.10%
Los Angeles Rams		20.7%18.59%	51.3%6.58%	71.8%0.66%	59.6%2.94%		72.9%1.06%		39.5%9.78%	64.1%1.58%		73.5%2.85%	86.7%0.20%	46.2%5.54%
Minnesota Vikings	50.0%<0.01%		25.6%0.86%			27.1%1.06%		58.8%0.03%	19.5%1.40%	38.0%0.18%	10.4%2.45%	50.3%0.38%		22.6%0.73%
New Orleans Saints		7.3%0.97%	24.4%0.32%	41.9%0.03%	27.1%0.14%		41.2%0.03%		20.7%0.45%	38.2%0.07%		49.5%0.11%	44.4%<0.01%	22.5%0.28%
New York Giants	83.3%0.05%	29.1%15.31%		77.4%0.83%	66.9%3.70%	60.5%9.78%	80.5%1.40%	79.3%0.45%			32.5%18.21%		90.5%0.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	87.5%<0.01%	12.0%3.39%		55.8%0.13%	42.1%0.64%	35.9%1.58%	62.0%0.18%	61.8%0.07%			15.3%3.70%		68.4%0.04%
San Francisco 49ers		44.8%22.20%	76.3%12.62%	88.4%1.60%	82.2%7.99%		89.6%2.45%		67.5%18.21%	84.7%3.70%		88.7%6.00%	95.0%0.44%	73.1%11.25%
St. Louis Cardinals	50.0%0.02%	9.6%5.46%		44.9%0.27%	34.8%1.12%	26.5%2.85%	49.7%0.38%	50.5%0.11%			11.3%6.00%		64.8%0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			19.1%0.16%			13.3%0.20%		55.6%<0.01%	9.5%0.24%	31.6%0.04%	5.0%0.44%	35.2%0.07%		11.4%0.14%
Washington Redskins	78.3%0.02%	24.7%9.59%		76.2%0.41%	61.7%2.10%	53.8%5.54%	77.4%0.73%	77.5%0.28%			26.9%11.25%		88.6%0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	11.8%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	9.1%0.01%	28.6%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	100.0%<0.01%		53.1%0.13%	30.5%1.35%		91.7%0.01%	49.7%0.19%	32.6%0.98%	23.9%2.96%	38.5%0.60%	36.9%0.63%	51.1%0.27%	49.2%0.18%	37.8%0.57%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.0%<0.01%	46.9%0.13%		31.6%1.37%	100.0%<0.01%	70.6%0.02%	46.5%0.20%	29.7%0.90%	22.3%3.10%	41.1%0.59%	36.1%0.68%	48.2%0.26%	43.5%0.21%	38.4%0.58%
Denver Broncos	88.2%0.02%	69.5%1.35%	68.4%1.37%		84.3%0.05%	78.8%0.05%	70.5%0.82%	48.5%4.41%	42.0%12.24%	55.6%2.63%	57.4%2.92%	67.4%2.50%	66.4%0.75%	59.0%2.65%
Houston Oilers	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	15.7%0.05%		100.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	18.9%0.04%	8.7%0.10%	28.0%0.03%	17.2%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts		8.3%0.01%	29.4%0.02%	21.2%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	18.8%0.05%	14.0%0.09%	0.0%0.01%	0.0%0.02%	46.4%0.03%	31.2%0.02%	16.1%0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	100.0%<0.01%	50.3%0.19%	53.5%0.20%	29.5%0.82%	80.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		31.0%0.58%	19.6%2.02%	34.2%0.41%	37.5%0.46%	42.4%0.36%	38.6%0.08%	38.0%0.34%
Los Angeles Raiders	90.9%0.01%	67.4%0.98%	70.3%0.90%	51.5%4.41%	81.1%0.04%	81.2%0.05%	69.0%0.58%		43.0%8.46%	58.7%1.53%	62.2%1.90%	69.4%1.96%	68.7%0.56%	61.2%1.83%
Miami Dolphins	71.4%0.01%	76.1%2.96%	77.7%3.10%	58.0%12.24%	91.3%0.10%	86.0%0.09%	80.4%2.02%	57.0%8.46%		63.9%5.77%	64.3%6.20%	77.5%5.80%	74.6%1.85%	67.9%5.95%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	61.5%0.60%	58.9%0.59%	44.4%2.63%	72.0%0.03%	100.0%0.01%	65.8%0.41%	41.3%1.53%	36.1%5.77%		50.2%1.11%	62.5%1.22%	58.4%0.39%	52.5%1.04%
New York Jets	50.0%<0.01%	63.1%0.63%	63.9%0.68%	42.6%2.92%	82.8%0.03%	100.0%0.02%	62.5%0.46%	37.8%1.90%	35.7%6.20%	49.8%1.11%		62.5%1.37%	60.8%0.41%	49.4%1.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.7%<0.01%	48.9%0.27%	51.8%0.26%	32.6%2.50%	100.0%<0.01%	53.6%0.03%	57.6%0.36%	30.6%1.96%	22.5%5.80%	37.5%1.22%	37.5%1.37%		46.5%0.36%	39.0%1.18%
San Diego Chargers	100.0%<0.01%	50.8%0.18%	56.5%0.21%	33.6%0.75%	100.0%<0.01%	68.8%0.02%	61.4%0.08%	31.3%0.56%	25.4%1.85%	41.6%0.39%	39.2%0.41%	53.5%0.36%		36.9%0.29%
Seattle Seahawks	83.3%<0.01%	62.2%0.57%	61.6%0.58%	41.0%2.65%	75.0%0.02%	83.9%0.03%	62.0%0.34%	38.8%1.83%	32.1%5.95%	47.5%1.04%	50.6%1.20%	61.0%1.18%	63.1%0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		20.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		25.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears	80.0%0.02%		77.0%4.49%	84.7%0.34%	79.8%2.54%	76.9%8.06%	86.0%0.48%	93.3%0.21%	70.7%8.81%	87.4%0.89%	53.6%31.16%	90.0%1.10%	90.9%0.04%	75.8%4.40%
Dallas Cowboys	100.0%<0.01%	23.0%4.49%		70.0%0.06%	57.8%0.32%	50.2%0.82%	66.1%0.06%	64.5%0.03%	40.5%1.05%	58.7%0.07%	25.3%3.85%	71.8%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%	46.1%0.50%
Detroit Lions	0.0%<0.01%	15.3%0.34%	30.0%0.06%		31.2%0.02%	30.6%0.07%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	29.0%0.09%	62.5%<0.01%	12.0%0.38%	70.0%0.01%		33.3%0.04%
Green Bay Packers	100.0%<0.01%	20.2%2.54%	42.2%0.32%	68.8%0.02%		41.5%0.47%	55.6%0.03%	69.2%0.01%	36.0%0.57%	58.3%0.06%	20.7%2.56%	73.5%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	40.8%0.34%
Los Angeles Rams	100.0%<0.01%	23.1%8.06%	49.8%0.82%	69.4%0.07%	58.5%0.47%		70.9%0.11%	60.0%0.03%	40.8%1.52%	62.3%0.14%	29.5%7.67%	79.2%0.19%	80.0%<0.01%	47.2%0.85%
Minnesota Vikings		14.0%0.48%	33.9%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%	44.4%0.03%	29.1%0.11%		50.0%<0.01%	23.7%0.14%	33.3%<0.01%	13.0%0.57%	60.0%0.01%		30.7%0.07%
New Orleans Saints		6.7%0.21%	35.5%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%	40.0%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%		6.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	9.3%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%
New York Giants	100.0%<0.01%	29.3%8.81%	59.5%1.05%	71.0%0.09%	64.0%0.57%	59.2%1.52%	76.3%0.14%	93.5%0.03%		66.4%0.15%	34.2%7.59%	77.8%0.21%	100.0%0.02%	55.6%0.97%
Philadelphia Eagles		12.6%0.89%	41.3%0.07%	37.5%<0.01%	41.7%0.06%	37.7%0.14%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.6%0.15%		14.4%0.66%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	26.9%0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	75.0%<0.01%	46.4%31.16%	74.7%3.85%	88.0%0.38%	79.3%2.56%	70.5%7.67%	87.0%0.57%	90.7%0.12%	65.8%7.59%	85.6%0.66%		88.3%0.98%	94.6%0.07%	68.9%3.52%
St. Louis Cardinals		10.0%1.10%	28.2%0.08%	30.0%0.01%	26.5%0.07%	20.8%0.19%	40.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	22.2%0.21%	0.0%<0.01%	11.7%0.98%		100.0%<0.01%	29.1%0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		9.1%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	5.4%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%		12.5%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	100.0%<0.01%	24.2%4.40%	53.9%0.50%	66.7%0.04%	59.2%0.34%	52.8%0.85%	69.3%0.07%	66.7%0.01%	44.4%0.97%	73.1%0.07%	31.1%3.52%	70.9%0.11%	87.5%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.0%<0.01%							0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		22.2%1.03%	45.8%0.08%	75.0%<0.01%	41.5%0.05%	43.8%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	39.7%0.21%	53.3%0.01%	24.9%0.86%	66.7%0.01%		34.1%0.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		19.9%1.01%	34.1%0.09%	0.0%<0.01%	43.8%0.05%	40.8%0.17%	60.0%<0.01%		30.6%0.19%	66.7%<0.01%	21.2%0.87%	66.7%<0.01%		40.9%0.09%
Denver Broncos	100.0%<0.01%	32.9%6.84%	59.2%0.57%	72.7%0.03%	67.0%0.29%	59.9%1.03%	78.9%0.04%	91.7%0.01%	49.2%1.34%	72.3%0.07%	38.2%5.81%	81.2%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	51.6%0.64%
Houston Oilers		13.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		10.0%0.02%			0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%		15.4%0.03%			0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		19.4%0.66%	45.5%0.06%	80.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.04%	37.6%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.9%0.14%	62.5%<0.01%	20.8%0.58%	44.4%<0.01%		35.9%0.06%
Los Angeles Raiders	100.0%<0.01%	36.4%5.22%	64.9%0.42%	75.0%0.03%	65.5%0.23%	64.9%0.76%	78.1%0.03%	87.5%<0.01%	53.3%0.97%	78.4%0.05%	43.7%4.37%	76.9%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	62.5%0.48%
Miami Dolphins	100.0%<0.01%	39.6%14.47%	65.6%1.30%	86.7%0.08%	68.7%0.66%	63.0%2.23%	80.5%0.11%	93.1%0.03%	57.5%2.95%	72.3%0.14%	45.3%12.49%	81.2%0.15%	75.0%<0.01%	60.0%1.37%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	30.7%2.85%	54.5%0.22%	66.7%<0.01%	66.1%0.12%	50.8%0.45%	43.8%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	48.8%0.58%	51.5%0.03%	34.8%2.42%	77.4%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	46.4%0.25%
New York Jets		29.1%3.08%	48.4%0.25%	85.7%0.01%	64.8%0.14%	50.6%0.48%	71.4%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	41.5%0.63%	63.9%0.04%	33.5%2.66%	64.3%0.03%		50.4%0.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.0%<0.01%	20.4%1.97%	32.2%0.17%	66.7%0.01%	48.5%0.10%	39.5%0.31%	50.0%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	37.0%0.42%	50.0%0.01%	23.9%1.62%	94.1%0.02%		35.2%0.17%
San Diego Chargers		25.6%0.72%	49.3%0.07%	33.3%<0.01%	48.3%0.03%	42.5%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%		32.9%0.15%	50.0%<0.01%	25.1%0.61%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	32.9%0.08%
Seattle Seahawks	50.0%<0.01%	26.9%2.76%	51.3%0.23%	62.5%<0.01%	50.0%0.12%	51.4%0.41%	83.3%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	40.6%0.52%	70.0%0.03%	32.3%2.31%	88.2%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.25%
Atlanta Falcons																		0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears															100.0%<0.01%	77.8%1.03%	80.1%1.01%	67.1%6.84%	86.4%0.02%	90.0%0.02%	80.6%0.66%	63.6%5.22%	60.4%14.47%	69.3%2.85%	70.9%3.08%	79.6%1.97%	74.4%0.72%	73.1%2.76%
Dallas Cowboys																54.2%0.08%	65.9%0.09%	40.8%0.57%	0.0%<0.01%		54.5%0.06%	35.1%0.42%	34.4%1.30%	45.5%0.22%	51.6%0.25%	67.8%0.17%	50.7%0.07%	48.7%0.23%
Detroit Lions																25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.03%			20.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.03%	13.3%0.08%	33.3%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%	33.3%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers																58.5%0.05%	56.2%0.05%	33.0%0.29%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.04%	34.5%0.23%	31.3%0.66%	33.9%0.12%	35.2%0.14%	51.5%0.10%	51.7%0.03%	50.0%0.12%
Los Angeles Rams																56.2%0.16%	59.2%0.17%	40.1%1.03%	100.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	62.4%0.10%	35.1%0.76%	37.0%2.23%	49.2%0.45%	49.4%0.48%	60.5%0.31%	57.5%0.12%	48.6%0.41%
Minnesota Vikings																0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	21.1%0.04%			0.0%<0.01%	21.9%0.03%	19.5%0.11%	56.2%0.02%	28.6%0.02%	50.0%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	16.7%0.02%
New Orleans Saints																100.0%<0.01%		8.3%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	6.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%
New York Giants															100.0%<0.01%	60.3%0.21%	69.4%0.19%	50.8%1.34%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	74.1%0.14%	46.7%0.97%	42.5%2.95%	51.2%0.58%	58.5%0.63%	63.0%0.42%	67.1%0.15%	59.4%0.52%
Philadelphia Eagles																46.7%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	27.7%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%		37.5%<0.01%	21.6%0.05%	27.7%0.14%	48.5%0.03%	36.1%0.04%	50.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	30.0%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers															100.0%<0.01%	75.1%0.86%	78.8%0.87%	61.8%5.81%	71.4%0.01%	84.6%0.03%	79.2%0.58%	56.3%4.37%	54.7%12.49%	65.2%2.42%	66.5%2.66%	76.1%1.62%	74.9%0.61%	67.7%2.31%
St. Louis Cardinals																33.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	18.8%0.06%			55.6%<0.01%	23.1%0.05%	18.8%0.15%	22.6%0.03%	35.7%0.03%	5.9%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	11.8%0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																		0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins																65.9%0.09%	59.1%0.09%	48.4%0.64%		100.0%<0.01%	64.1%0.06%	37.5%0.48%	40.0%1.37%	53.6%0.25%	49.6%0.26%	64.8%0.17%	67.1%0.08%	50.0%0.25%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Chicago Bears	100.00%	72.67%	61.81%	38.48%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	70.10%	44.92%	19.18%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	84.93%	40.77%	18.89%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	49.74%	16.50%	10.51%	6.76%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	66.22%	14.68%	5.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	33.78%	7.52%	2.89%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	50.26%	10.83%	5.49%	2.83%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Jets	62.57%	18.13%	5.89%	2.38%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New England Patriots	37.43%	11.77%	4.17%	1.82%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	15.07%	4.24%	1.11%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	New England Patriots	New York Jets
New England Patriots		37.4%100.00%
New York Jets	62.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants		50.3%100.00%
San Francisco 49ers	49.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)			15.1%100.00%
Los Angeles Raiders				68.6%37.43%	71.0%62.57%
Miami Dolphins	84.9%100.00%
New England Patriots		31.4%37.43%
New York Jets		29.0%62.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears				78.5%50.26%	66.8%49.74%
Dallas Cowboys			33.8%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams		66.2%100.00%
New York Giants	21.5%50.26%
San Francisco 49ers	33.2%49.74%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)		19.7%10.59%		45.0%1.76%	50.0%2.72%
Los Angeles Raiders	80.3%10.59%		61.2%59.52%
Miami Dolphins		38.8%59.52%		68.0%10.00%	70.6%15.41%
New England Patriots	55.0%1.76%		32.0%10.00%
New York Jets	50.0%2.72%		29.4%15.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears		84.9%24.42%	85.1%48.24%
Dallas Cowboys	15.1%24.42%			48.3%3.68%	36.4%5.67%
Los Angeles Rams	14.9%48.24%			49.8%7.14%	36.3%10.83%
New York Giants		51.7%3.68%	50.2%7.14%
San Francisco 49ers		63.6%5.67%	63.7%10.83%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Cleveland Browns (1st)	21.5%2.60%	40.7%0.30%	42.3%0.62%	28.8%0.24%	21.2%0.47%
Los Angeles Raiders	36.9%27.82%	61.5%3.39%	60.8%6.55%	48.5%2.50%	34.9%4.65%
Miami Dolphins	40.8%25.17%	64.2%3.06%	64.5%6.01%	51.7%2.18%	38.0%4.35%
New England Patriots	37.6%2.56%	60.4%0.32%	62.0%0.63%	49.4%0.24%	35.7%0.42%
New York Jets	34.3%3.65%	58.4%0.45%	60.6%0.86%	41.4%0.32%	35.4%0.61%
Chicago Bears						78.5%2.60%	63.1%27.82%	59.2%25.17%	62.4%2.56%	65.7%3.65%
Dallas Cowboys						59.3%0.30%	38.5%3.39%	35.8%3.06%	39.6%0.32%	41.6%0.45%
Los Angeles Rams						57.7%0.62%	39.2%6.55%	35.5%6.01%	38.0%0.63%	39.4%0.86%
New York Giants						71.2%0.24%	51.5%2.50%	48.3%2.18%	50.6%0.24%	58.6%0.32%
San Francisco 49ers						78.8%0.47%	65.1%4.65%	62.0%4.35%	64.3%0.42%	64.6%0.61%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 38.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

54.27%

Win Prob

78.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

66.43%

Win Prob

85.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

45.58%

Win Prob

63.05%

Los Angeles Raiders 19.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

63.40%

Win Prob

71.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

81.08%

Win Prob

61.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.58%

Win Prob

36.95%

Miami Dolphins 18.89% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

84.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

56.64%

Win Prob

38.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

54.35%

Win Prob

40.80%

San Francisco 49ers 6.76% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.74%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.66%

Win Prob

63.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

44.76%

Win Prob

65.06%

Los Angeles Rams 5.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

48.93%

Win Prob

14.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

45.57%

Win Prob

39.22%

Dallas Cowboys 2.89% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

48.91%

Win Prob

15.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

45.13%

Win Prob

38.54%

New York Giants 2.83% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.26%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.29%

Win Prob

50.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

45.65%

Win Prob

51.54%

New York Jets 2.38% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.97%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

76.94%

Win Prob

29.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

52.49%

Win Prob

34.29%

New England Patriots 1.82% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

76.74%

Win Prob

32.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

53.05%

Win Prob

37.60%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 1.11% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

49.24%

Win Prob

19.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

50.13%

Win Prob

21.47%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1985-09-08	Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1408.90	1425.21	61.99%	37.80%	-8.72	0-1
1985-09-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-35	1400.18	1646.89	11.82%	88.08%	-7.25	0-2
1985-09-22	Denver Broncos	L 28-44	1392.93	1573.16	38.84%	60.94%	-21.87	0-3
1985-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1371.06	1592.81	13.39%	86.49%	-6.25	0-4
1985-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-38	1364.81	1668.90	23.76%	76.08%	-15.32	0-5
1985-10-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-30	1349.49	1556.58	14.40%	85.48%	-4.05	0-6
1985-10-20	New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1345.44	1448.78	49.71%	50.07%	+18.64	1-6
1985-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1364.08	1577.14	13.98%	85.90%	-7.37	1-7
1985-11-03	Washington Redskins	L 10-44	1356.71	1530.98	39.66%	60.13%	-32.55	1-8
1985-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1324.16	1473.88	18.96%	80.89%	-6.53	1-9
1985-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-14	1317.63	1605.06	25.53%	74.29%	+41.78	2-9
1985-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-36	1359.41	1742.44	5.77%	94.18%	-4.86	2-10
1985-12-01	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-34	1354.55	1581.38	32.70%	67.10%	-14.56	2-11
1985-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-38	1339.99	1440.41	23.70%	76.13%	-17.65	2-12
1985-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-13	1322.34	1415.70	51.15%	48.63%	+6.84	3-12
1985-12-22	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1329.18	1397.17	27.23%	72.59%	+25.00	4-12
1985-09-08	San Diego Chargers	L 9-14	1393.83	1482.94	51.76%	48.02%	-16.28	0-1
1985-09-15	@ New York Jets	L 3-42	1377.55	1426.81	29.42%	70.39%	-25.87	0-2
1985-09-22	New England Patriots	L 14-17	1351.68	1494.79	44.02%	55.76%	-10.73	0-3
1985-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1340.95	1428.71	51.95%	47.83%	-19.34	0-4
1985-10-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-49	1321.61	1368.03	29.76%	70.05%	-23.70	0-5
1985-10-13	@ New England Patriots	L 3-14	1297.91	1463.61	17.59%	82.27%	-8.21	0-6
1985-10-20	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-9	1289.70	1380.04	51.58%	48.20%	+23.50	1-6
1985-10-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1313.20	1476.42	17.80%	82.06%	-5.01	1-7
1985-11-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1308.19	1465.12	42.07%	57.71%	-14.50	1-8
1985-11-10	Houston Oilers	W 20-0	1293.69	1406.20	48.39%	51.39%	+32.33	2-8
1985-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1326.02	1469.21	19.54%	80.31%	-8.70	2-9
1985-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-23	1317.32	1614.86	24.45%	75.38%	-10.32	2-10
1985-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-40	1307.00	1484.23	16.65%	83.22%	-13.46	2-11
1985-12-08	New York Jets	L 7-27	1293.54	1563.83	27.45%	72.36%	-17.28	2-12
1985-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1276.26	1496.20	13.52%	86.37%	-4.66	2-13
1985-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-28	1271.60	1677.81	5.08%	94.87%	-3.78	2-14
1985-09-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-28	1537.42	1452.92	74.43%	25.39%	+11.30	1-0
1985-09-15	New England Patriots	W 20-7	1548.72	1510.39	69.07%	30.74%	+15.60	2-0
1985-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-24	1564.32	1448.97	51.79%	47.98%	+20.26	3-0
1985-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 45-10	1584.58	1499.63	74.48%	25.35%	+21.11	4-0
1985-10-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-19	1605.69	1372.14	67.95%	31.85%	+12.68	5-0
1985-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-10	1618.37	1684.22	27.48%	72.34%	+40.69	6-0
1985-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1659.06	1518.57	80.06%	19.79%	+11.14	7-0
1985-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-9	1670.20	1448.09	86.52%	13.37%	+7.98	8-0
1985-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1678.18	1465.87	65.24%	34.56%	+11.92	9-0
1985-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1690.10	1442.29	88.15%	11.75%	+7.57	10-0
1985-11-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 44-0	1697.67	1582.18	51.81%	47.97%	+44.77	11-0
1985-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 36-0	1742.44	1359.41	94.18%	5.77%	+4.86	12-0
1985-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-38	1747.30	1625.19	52.77%	47.01%	-27.77	12-1
1985-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 17-10	1719.53	1320.74	94.66%	5.29%	+1.97	13-1
1985-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 19-6	1721.50	1581.11	55.37%	44.41%	+22.53	14-1
1985-12-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-17	1744.03	1441.07	75.96%	23.88%	+15.03	15-1
1985-09-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-28	1502.64	1560.72	56.19%	43.59%	-15.81	0-1
1985-09-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-41	1486.83	1574.36	25.07%	74.76%	-13.20	0-2
1985-09-22	San Diego Chargers	L 41-44	1473.63	1471.09	64.51%	35.28%	-15.71	0-3
1985-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-24	1457.92	1555.28	24.02%	75.81%	+38.43	1-3
1985-10-06	New York Jets	L 20-29	1496.35	1508.19	62.59%	37.20%	-26.41	1-4
1985-10-13	New York Giants	W 35-30	1469.94	1553.49	52.56%	47.22%	+14.86	2-4
1985-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-44	1484.80	1325.09	58.10%	41.68%	-33.70	2-5
1985-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-21	1451.10	1515.97	55.23%	44.55%	+14.02	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-17	1465.12	1308.19	57.71%	42.07%	+14.50	4-5
1985-11-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-10	1479.62	1490.74	62.69%	37.10%	+21.54	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-13	1501.16	1560.83	28.19%	71.62%	-10.50	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-24	1490.66	1477.91	37.32%	62.47%	-22.29	5-7
1985-12-01	Houston Oilers	W 45-27	1468.37	1356.75	77.28%	22.56%	+13.47	6-7
1985-12-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 50-24	1481.84	1566.54	52.39%	47.39%	+34.00	7-7
1985-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1515.84	1555.78	30.54%	69.26%	-7.45	7-8
1985-12-22	@ New England Patriots	L 23-34	1508.39	1579.27	26.91%	72.91%	-12.56	7-9
1985-09-08	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-27	1463.68	1562.07	50.42%	49.35%	-12.28	0-1
1985-09-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-7	1451.40	1567.21	47.92%	51.86%	+23.07	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1474.47	1535.22	28.07%	71.75%	-14.25	1-2
1985-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-7	1460.22	1486.80	32.20%	67.61%	+35.58	2-2
1985-10-06	New England Patriots	W 24-20	1495.80	1472.80	67.15%	32.65%	+9.19	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-6	1504.99	1348.02	57.72%	42.06%	+22.93	4-2
1985-10-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1527.92	1594.53	54.98%	44.80%	-7.73	4-3
1985-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1520.19	1506.43	65.97%	33.83%	-24.55	4-4
1985-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-10	1495.64	1501.95	34.79%	65.00%	-4.90	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1490.74	1479.62	37.10%	62.69%	-21.53	4-6
1985-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1469.21	1326.02	80.31%	19.54%	+8.70	5-6
1985-11-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-6	1477.91	1490.66	62.47%	37.32%	+22.28	6-6
1985-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 35-33	1500.19	1614.93	22.24%	77.60%	+15.43	7-6
1985-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-31	1515.62	1580.30	27.61%	72.21%	-16.49	7-7
1985-12-15	Houston Oilers	W 28-21	1499.13	1324.51	83.01%	16.86%	+6.28	8-7
1985-12-22	@ New York Jets	L 10-37	1505.41	1558.58	28.95%	70.86%	-21.18	8-8
1985-09-09	Washington Redskins	W 44-14	1519.08	1567.39	57.57%	42.21%	+32.54	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-26	1551.62	1433.93	52.13%	47.65%	-16.40	1-1
1985-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-7	1535.22	1474.47	71.75%	28.07%	+14.25	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-10	1549.47	1368.63	61.03%	38.76%	+14.43	3-1
1985-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 30-29	1563.90	1562.49	35.81%	63.99%	+9.00	4-1
1985-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-13	1572.90	1511.15	71.87%	27.95%	+14.72	5-1
1985-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-16	1587.62	1465.93	52.70%	47.07%	-10.48	5-2
1985-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1577.14	1364.08	85.90%	13.98%	+7.36	6-2
1985-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-21	1584.50	1462.88	52.69%	47.08%	-24.59	6-3
1985-11-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-7	1559.91	1563.53	35.14%	64.65%	+22.27	7-3
1985-11-17	Chicago Bears	L 0-44	1582.18	1697.67	47.97%	51.81%	-44.77	7-4
1985-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-17	1537.41	1507.38	68.04%	31.77%	+18.44	8-4
1985-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1555.85	1393.94	81.95%	17.91%	+10.69	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-50	1566.54	1481.84	47.39%	52.39%	-34.00	9-5
1985-12-15	New York Giants	W 28-21	1532.54	1618.27	52.24%	47.54%	+17.69	10-5
1985-12-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-31	1550.23	1704.99	18.52%	81.34%	-10.09	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-20	1575.77	1524.72	42.60%	57.18%	-11.99	0-1
1985-09-15	New Orleans Saints	W 34-23	1563.78	1426.52	79.76%	20.09%	+9.38	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-28	1573.16	1392.93	60.94%	38.84%	+21.87	2-1
1985-09-29	Miami Dolphins	L 26-30	1595.03	1635.85	58.62%	41.17%	-16.49	2-2
1985-10-06	Houston Oilers	W 31-20	1578.54	1354.19	86.67%	13.22%	+6.16	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 15-10	1584.70	1391.73	62.68%	37.12%	+11.69	4-2
1985-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1596.39	1560.63	68.75%	31.06%	+7.57	5-2
1985-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-10	1603.96	1520.72	47.18%	52.60%	+33.10	6-2
1985-11-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-30	1637.06	1447.97	62.15%	37.64%	-39.09	6-3
1985-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-16	1597.97	1672.26	53.88%	45.90%	+6.45	7-3
1985-11-17	San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1604.42	1503.68	76.17%	23.67%	+8.16	8-3
1985-11-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 28-31	1612.58	1571.33	41.23%	58.56%	-10.05	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-23	1602.53	1534.77	44.96%	54.82%	+21.82	9-4
1985-12-08	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-17	1624.35	1595.93	67.84%	31.97%	-16.53	9-5
1985-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-13	1607.82	1458.06	80.90%	18.96%	+2.67	10-5
1985-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1610.49	1581.84	39.48%	60.31%	+14.69	11-5
1985-09-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-27	1425.21	1408.90	37.80%	61.99%	+8.72	1-0
1985-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-21	1433.93	1551.62	47.65%	52.13%	+16.40	2-0
1985-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-14	1450.33	1355.20	48.88%	50.89%	-19.46	2-1
1985-09-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-9	1430.87	1391.92	69.14%	30.66%	+19.78	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-43	1450.65	1486.88	31.00%	68.81%	-25.07	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-24	1425.58	1507.65	25.66%	74.17%	-16.55	3-3
1985-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1409.03	1643.53	31.73%	68.07%	+13.54	4-3
1985-10-27	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1422.57	1630.70	35.11%	64.69%	+28.77	5-3
1985-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1451.34	1440.11	37.11%	62.68%	-9.05	5-4
1985-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1442.29	1690.10	11.75%	88.15%	-7.57	5-5
1985-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-21	1434.72	1420.90	65.98%	33.82%	+21.29	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-19	1456.01	1341.81	51.63%	48.15%	-12.58	6-6
1985-11-28	New York Jets	W 31-20	1443.43	1590.08	43.52%	56.26%	+26.25	7-6
1985-12-08	@ New England Patriots	L 6-23	1469.68	1571.77	23.53%	76.31%	-13.66	7-7
1985-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 23-26	1456.02	1476.94	61.37%	38.42%	-14.95	7-8
1985-12-22	Chicago Bears	L 17-37	1441.07	1744.03	23.88%	75.96%	-15.03	7-9
1985-09-08	@ New England Patriots	L 20-26	1557.58	1495.15	44.21%	55.58%	-15.24	0-1
1985-09-15	New York Giants	W 23-20	1542.34	1533.42	65.34%	34.45%	+8.40	1-1
1985-09-22	New York Jets	L 3-24	1550.74	1452.67	75.89%	23.95%	-48.89	1-2
1985-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-43	1501.85	1567.88	27.46%	72.36%	-14.97	1-3
1985-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 43-10	1486.88	1450.65	68.81%	31.00%	+25.06	2-3
1985-10-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1511.94	1443.46	72.64%	27.18%	+6.63	3-3
1985-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-23	1518.57	1659.06	19.79%	80.06%	-11.14	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-37	1507.43	1356.55	56.86%	42.92%	-41.56	3-5
1985-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 10-16	1465.87	1678.18	34.56%	65.24%	-11.92	3-6
1985-11-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1453.95	1449.15	36.25%	63.54%	+28.26	4-6
1985-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 38-14	1482.21	1375.48	76.79%	23.05%	+15.89	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1498.10	1563.28	27.56%	72.26%	-15.99	5-7
1985-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-0	1482.11	1354.39	78.86%	20.98%	+13.53	6-7
1985-12-08	Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1495.64	1652.96	42.01%	57.77%	-18.70	6-8
1985-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 26-23	1476.94	1456.02	38.42%	61.37%	+14.95	7-8
1985-12-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1491.89	1297.63	62.85%	36.94%	+9.01	8-8
1985-09-08	Miami Dolphins	W 26-23	1367.28	1619.09	29.62%	70.19%	+17.09	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1384.37	1534.85	18.89%	80.96%	-4.60	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-20	1379.77	1544.14	17.70%	82.16%	-11.14	1-2
1985-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1368.63	1549.47	38.76%	61.03%	-14.44	1-3
1985-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-31	1354.19	1578.54	13.22%	86.67%	-6.17	1-4
1985-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-21	1348.02	1504.99	42.06%	57.72%	-22.93	1-5
1985-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-27	1325.09	1484.80	41.68%	58.10%	+33.70	2-5
1985-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1358.79	1498.44	19.87%	79.98%	+35.56	3-5
1985-11-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-20	1394.35	1487.63	51.16%	48.62%	+11.85	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-20	1406.20	1293.69	51.39%	48.39%	-32.34	4-6
1985-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-30	1373.86	1530.71	42.08%	57.70%	-28.40	4-7
1985-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 37-35	1345.46	1495.52	43.04%	56.75%	+11.29	5-7
1985-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-45	1356.75	1468.37	22.56%	77.28%	-13.47	5-8
1985-12-08	New York Giants	L 14-35	1343.28	1599.51	29.09%	70.72%	-18.77	5-9
1985-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-28	1324.51	1499.13	16.86%	83.01%	-6.28	5-10
1985-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-34	1318.23	1344.54	32.23%	67.57%	-19.25	5-11
1985-09-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-45	1377.71	1551.80	16.90%	82.96%	-15.41	0-1
1985-09-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-30	1362.30	1601.99	12.24%	87.65%	-7.10	0-2
1985-09-22	Detroit Lions	W 14-6	1355.20	1450.33	50.89%	48.88%	+19.46	1-2
1985-09-29	@ New York Jets	L 20-25	1374.66	1501.56	21.06%	78.79%	-6.63	1-3
1985-10-06	Buffalo Bills	W 49-17	1368.03	1321.61	70.05%	29.76%	+23.70	2-3
1985-10-13	Denver Broncos	L 10-15	1391.73	1584.70	37.12%	62.68%	-11.69	2-4
1985-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-21	1380.04	1289.70	48.20%	51.58%	-23.49	2-5
1985-10-27	Green Bay Packers	W 37-10	1356.55	1507.43	42.92%	56.86%	+41.56	3-5
1985-11-03	New York Jets	L 17-35	1398.11	1555.24	42.04%	57.74%	-25.10	3-6
1985-11-10	@ New England Patriots	L 15-34	1373.01	1529.68	18.35%	81.50%	-11.26	3-7
1985-11-17	Miami Dolphins	L 20-34	1361.75	1598.28	31.48%	68.32%	-16.58	3-8
1985-11-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-20	1345.17	1441.55	24.12%	75.71%	-12.25	3-9
1985-12-01	New England Patriots	L 31-38	1332.92	1559.58	32.72%	67.08%	-12.18	3-10
1985-12-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1320.74	1719.53	5.29%	94.66%	-1.97	3-11
1985-12-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1318.77	1323.40	35.01%	64.78%	+25.77	4-11
1985-12-22	Houston Oilers	W 34-16	1344.54	1318.23	67.57%	32.23%	+19.25	5-11
1985-09-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 47-27	1543.36	1459.56	47.26%	52.52%	+33.04	1-0
1985-09-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 36-20	1576.40	1593.72	61.85%	37.93%	+21.36	2-0
1985-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-31	1597.76	1609.09	34.14%	65.66%	-26.76	2-1
1985-09-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-7	1571.00	1572.11	64.03%	35.77%	+23.08	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-19	1594.08	1568.68	39.03%	60.75%	-16.49	3-2
1985-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-31	1577.59	1443.68	54.45%	45.33%	-25.41	3-3
1985-10-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-16	1552.18	1612.25	55.91%	43.87%	-31.46	3-4
1985-10-27	Denver Broncos	L 10-30	1520.72	1603.96	52.60%	47.18%	-33.09	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1487.63	1394.35	48.62%	51.16%	-11.85	3-6
1985-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-36	1475.78	1506.85	59.97%	39.81%	-23.86	3-7
1985-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1451.92	1665.80	13.93%	85.96%	-10.37	3-8
1985-11-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-7	1441.55	1345.17	75.71%	24.12%	+12.24	4-8
1985-12-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-24	1453.79	1566.92	22.40%	77.43%	-13.38	4-9
1985-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-10	1440.41	1339.99	76.13%	23.70%	+17.65	5-9
1985-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-14	1458.06	1607.82	18.96%	80.90%	-2.66	5-10
1985-12-22	San Diego Chargers	W 38-34	1455.40	1523.89	54.71%	45.07%	+12.68	6-10
1985-09-08	New York Jets	W 31-0	1577.83	1442.70	79.57%	20.28%	+15.89	1-0
1985-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-36	1593.72	1576.40	37.93%	61.85%	-21.36	1-1
1985-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-34	1572.36	1654.13	52.81%	46.97%	-36.40	1-2
1985-09-29	@ New England Patriots	W 35-20	1535.96	1505.52	39.73%	60.06%	+32.72	2-2
1985-10-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-10	1568.68	1594.08	60.75%	39.03%	+16.48	3-2
1985-10-13	New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1585.16	1458.15	78.80%	21.05%	+9.37	4-2
1985-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1594.53	1527.92	44.80%	54.98%	+7.74	5-2
1985-10-28	San Diego Chargers	W 34-21	1602.27	1457.83	80.42%	19.43%	+9.86	6-2
1985-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-33	1612.13	1544.16	44.99%	54.79%	-34.69	6-3
1985-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-40	1577.44	1487.07	48.20%	51.58%	-16.61	6-4
1985-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-6	1560.83	1501.16	71.62%	28.19%	+10.50	7-4
1985-11-24	Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1571.33	1612.58	58.56%	41.23%	+10.05	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-24	1581.38	1354.55	67.10%	32.70%	+14.55	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1595.93	1624.35	31.97%	67.84%	+16.53	10-4
1985-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-3	1612.46	1596.79	66.22%	33.58%	+14.95	11-4
1985-12-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-6	1627.41	1579.79	42.11%	57.67%	+25.65	12-4
1985-09-08	Denver Broncos	W 20-16	1524.72	1575.77	57.18%	42.60%	+11.99	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-6	1536.71	1438.42	49.34%	50.44%	+23.54	2-0
1985-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 35-24	1560.25	1604.67	30.00%	69.81%	+32.56	3-0
1985-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-6	1592.81	1371.06	86.49%	13.39%	+6.25	4-0
1985-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1599.06	1448.05	81.01%	18.85%	+4.59	5-0
1985-10-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-27	1603.65	1359.46	69.27%	30.54%	+8.60	6-0
1985-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-0	1612.25	1552.18	43.87%	55.91%	+31.46	7-0
1985-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-28	1643.71	1630.00	65.97%	33.83%	-34.71	7-1
1985-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 28-10	1609.00	1411.67	84.77%	15.11%	+9.02	8-1
1985-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 19-24	1618.02	1577.16	41.17%	58.61%	-12.96	8-2
1985-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1605.06	1317.63	74.29%	25.53%	-41.78	8-3
1985-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 34-17	1563.28	1498.10	72.26%	27.56%	+15.99	9-3
1985-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-29	1579.27	1385.36	62.80%	36.99%	-45.04	9-4
1985-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-20	1534.23	1723.56	15.71%	84.17%	+31.30	10-4
1985-12-15	St. Louis Cardinals	W 46-14	1565.53	1403.75	81.94%	17.92%	+14.26	11-4
1985-12-23	Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-16	1579.79	1627.41	57.67%	42.11%	-25.65	11-5
1985-09-08	@ Houston Oilers	L 23-26	1619.09	1367.28	70.19%	29.62%	-17.10	0-1
1985-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-13	1601.99	1362.30	87.65%	12.24%	+7.10	1-1
1985-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-0	1609.09	1597.76	65.66%	34.14%	+26.76	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-26	1635.85	1595.03	41.17%	58.62%	+16.49	3-1
1985-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1652.34	1516.84	79.60%	20.25%	+5.70	4-1
1985-10-14	@ New York Jets	L 7-23	1658.04	1534.60	52.95%	46.82%	-29.80	4-2
1985-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-38	1628.24	1350.86	89.81%	10.10%	+2.46	5-2
1985-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-31	1630.70	1422.57	64.69%	35.11%	-28.77	5-3
1985-11-03	@ New England Patriots	L 13-17	1601.93	1516.31	47.52%	52.26%	-13.37	5-4
1985-11-10	New York Jets	W 21-17	1588.56	1580.35	65.25%	34.54%	+9.72	6-4
1985-11-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-20	1598.28	1361.75	68.32%	31.48%	+16.58	7-4
1985-11-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-14	1614.86	1317.32	75.38%	24.45%	+10.33	8-4
1985-12-02	Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1625.19	1747.30	47.01%	52.77%	+27.77	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-24	1652.96	1495.64	57.77%	42.01%	+18.70	10-4
1985-12-16	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1671.66	1585.42	74.62%	25.20%	+6.15	11-4
1985-12-22	Buffalo Bills	W 28-0	1677.81	1271.60	94.87%	5.08%	+3.78	12-4
1985-09-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-21	1384.18	1674.65	25.20%	74.62%	+27.75	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-16	1411.93	1441.61	31.81%	67.99%	+37.04	2-0
1985-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 24-33	1448.97	1564.32	47.98%	51.79%	-20.26	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-20	1428.71	1340.95	47.83%	51.95%	+19.34	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-13	1448.05	1599.06	18.85%	81.01%	-4.59	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1443.46	1511.94	27.18%	72.64%	-6.63	3-3
1985-10-20	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1436.83	1469.09	59.81%	39.98%	+11.26	4-3
1985-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-27	1448.09	1670.20	13.37%	86.52%	-7.98	4-4
1985-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1440.11	1451.34	62.68%	37.11%	+9.04	5-4
1985-11-10	Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1449.15	1453.95	63.54%	36.25%	-28.25	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-41	1420.90	1434.72	33.82%	65.98%	-21.30	5-6
1985-11-24	New Orleans Saints	L 23-30	1399.60	1359.59	69.27%	30.53%	-25.77	5-7
1985-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-23	1373.83	1488.95	22.21%	77.63%	+24.41	6-7
1985-12-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-7	1398.24	1340.86	71.36%	28.46%	+17.46	7-7
1985-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-14	1415.70	1322.34	48.63%	51.15%	-6.84	7-8
1985-12-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 35-37	1408.86	1438.15	60.22%	39.57%	-11.98	7-9
1985-09-08	Green Bay Packers	W 26-20	1495.15	1557.58	55.58%	44.21%	+15.24	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1510.39	1548.72	30.74%	69.07%	-15.60	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1494.79	1351.68	55.76%	44.02%	+10.73	2-1
1985-09-29	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-35	1505.52	1535.96	60.06%	39.73%	-32.72	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-24	1472.80	1495.80	32.65%	67.15%	-9.19	2-3
1985-10-13	Buffalo Bills	W 14-3	1463.61	1297.91	82.27%	17.59%	+8.21	3-3
1985-10-20	New York Jets	W 20-13	1471.82	1564.40	51.26%	48.52%	+18.06	4-3
1985-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-14	1489.88	1348.40	55.53%	44.25%	+26.43	5-3
1985-11-03	Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1516.31	1601.93	52.26%	47.52%	+13.37	6-3
1985-11-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-15	1529.68	1373.01	81.50%	18.35%	+11.26	7-3
1985-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-13	1540.94	1606.01	27.57%	72.25%	+26.88	8-3
1985-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 13-16	1567.82	1581.84	33.79%	66.01%	-8.24	8-4
1985-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-31	1559.58	1332.92	67.08%	32.72%	+12.19	9-4
1985-12-08	Detroit Lions	W 23-6	1571.77	1469.68	76.31%	23.53%	+13.65	10-4
1985-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-30	1585.42	1671.66	25.20%	74.62%	-6.15	10-5
1985-12-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-23	1579.27	1508.39	72.91%	26.91%	+12.57	11-5
1985-09-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-47	1459.56	1543.36	52.52%	47.26%	-33.04	0-1
1985-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-34	1426.52	1563.78	20.09%	79.76%	-9.38	0-2
1985-09-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-13	1417.14	1404.58	65.82%	33.98%	+12.66	1-2
1985-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1429.80	1690.54	11.00%	88.90%	+21.63	2-2
1985-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1451.43	1436.91	66.07%	33.73%	+6.72	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 13-23	1458.15	1585.16	21.05%	78.80%	-9.37	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-31	1448.78	1345.44	50.07%	49.71%	-18.64	3-4
1985-10-27	New York Giants	L 13-21	1430.14	1556.41	46.42%	53.36%	-18.47	3-5
1985-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-28	1411.67	1609.00	15.11%	84.77%	-9.02	3-6
1985-11-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-27	1402.65	1578.84	39.40%	60.39%	-27.17	3-7
1985-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-38	1375.48	1482.21	23.05%	76.79%	-15.89	3-8
1985-11-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-23	1359.59	1399.60	30.53%	69.27%	+25.77	4-8
1985-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 29-3	1385.36	1579.27	36.99%	62.80%	+45.04	5-8
1985-12-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-28	1430.40	1383.25	42.05%	57.73%	-20.50	5-9
1985-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-31	1409.90	1692.26	26.09%	73.73%	-12.73	5-10
1985-12-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-16	1397.17	1329.18	72.59%	27.23%	-25.00	5-11
1985-09-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-0	1515.14	1456.69	71.48%	28.33%	+18.28	1-0
1985-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1533.42	1542.34	34.45%	65.34%	-8.40	1-1
1985-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-17	1525.02	1587.56	55.56%	44.22%	+19.68	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1544.70	1454.70	48.15%	51.63%	+17.79	3-1
1985-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 29-30	1562.49	1563.90	63.99%	35.81%	-9.00	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-35	1553.49	1469.94	47.22%	52.56%	-14.86	3-3
1985-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 17-3	1538.63	1524.21	66.06%	33.74%	+17.78	4-3
1985-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-13	1556.41	1430.14	53.36%	46.42%	+18.47	5-3
1985-11-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-20	1574.88	1321.98	88.45%	11.45%	+2.28	6-3
1985-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-19	1577.16	1618.02	58.61%	41.17%	+12.96	7-3
1985-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-23	1590.12	1541.26	42.29%	57.49%	-8.42	7-4
1985-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-3	1581.70	1427.17	57.38%	42.41%	+33.23	8-4
1985-12-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 33-35	1614.93	1500.19	77.60%	22.24%	-15.42	8-5
1985-12-08	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1599.51	1343.28	70.72%	29.09%	+18.76	9-5
1985-12-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1618.27	1532.54	47.54%	52.24%	-17.69	9-6
1985-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-10	1600.58	1500.85	76.06%	23.77%	+14.19	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 0-31	1442.70	1577.83	20.28%	79.57%	-15.89	0-1
1985-09-15	Buffalo Bills	W 42-3	1426.81	1377.55	70.39%	29.42%	+25.86	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1452.67	1550.74	23.95%	75.89%	+48.89	2-1
1985-09-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 25-20	1501.56	1374.66	78.79%	21.06%	+6.63	3-1
1985-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-20	1508.19	1496.35	37.20%	62.59%	+26.41	4-1
1985-10-14	Miami Dolphins	W 23-7	1534.60	1658.04	46.82%	52.95%	+29.80	5-1
1985-10-20	@ New England Patriots	L 13-20	1564.40	1471.82	48.52%	51.26%	-18.06	5-2
1985-10-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1546.34	1553.06	63.28%	36.51%	+8.90	6-2
1985-11-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-17	1555.24	1398.11	57.74%	42.04%	+25.11	7-2
1985-11-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1580.35	1588.56	34.54%	65.25%	-9.73	7-3
1985-11-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 62-28	1570.62	1353.02	86.21%	13.67%	+11.22	8-3
1985-11-24	New England Patriots	W 16-13	1581.84	1567.82	66.01%	33.79%	+8.24	9-3
1985-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-31	1590.08	1443.43	56.26%	43.52%	-26.25	9-4
1985-12-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1563.83	1293.54	72.36%	27.45%	+17.28	10-4
1985-12-14	Chicago Bears	L 6-19	1581.11	1721.50	44.41%	55.37%	-22.53	10-5
1985-12-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-10	1558.58	1505.41	70.86%	28.95%	+21.18	11-5
1985-09-08	@ New York Giants	L 0-21	1456.69	1515.14	28.33%	71.48%	-18.27	0-1
1985-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1438.42	1536.71	50.44%	49.34%	-23.54	0-2
1985-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-6	1414.88	1539.45	21.28%	78.56%	+39.82	1-2
1985-09-29	New York Giants	L 10-16	1454.70	1544.70	51.63%	48.15%	-17.79	1-3
1985-10-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-23	1436.91	1451.43	33.73%	66.07%	-6.72	1-4
1985-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-7	1430.19	1553.72	46.81%	52.97%	+35.74	2-4
1985-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-14	1465.93	1587.62	47.07%	52.70%	+10.49	3-4
1985-10-27	Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1476.42	1313.20	82.06%	17.80%	+5.01	4-4
1985-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-24	1481.43	1664.71	16.17%	83.70%	-7.55	4-5
1985-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1473.88	1324.16	80.89%	18.96%	+6.53	5-5
1985-11-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-14	1480.41	1454.14	39.15%	60.63%	+26.97	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-34	1507.38	1537.41	31.77%	68.04%	-18.43	6-6
1985-12-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-28	1488.95	1373.83	77.63%	22.21%	-24.41	6-7
1985-12-08	Washington Redskins	L 12-17	1464.54	1538.83	53.88%	45.89%	-16.95	6-8
1985-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1447.59	1514.45	27.36%	72.46%	-9.44	6-9
1985-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-35	1438.15	1408.86	39.57%	60.22%	+11.98	7-9
1985-09-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-3	1551.80	1377.71	82.96%	16.90%	+15.41	1-0
1985-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1567.21	1451.40	51.86%	47.92%	-23.07	1-1
1985-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 20-0	1544.14	1379.77	82.16%	17.70%	+11.14	2-1
1985-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-37	1555.28	1457.92	75.81%	24.02%	-38.44	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1516.84	1652.34	20.25%	79.60%	-5.69	2-3
1985-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1511.15	1572.90	27.95%	71.87%	-14.73	2-4
1985-10-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-10	1496.42	1517.98	61.28%	38.51%	+19.55	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-26	1515.97	1451.10	44.55%	55.23%	-14.02	3-5
1985-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-9	1501.95	1495.64	65.00%	34.79%	+4.90	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 36-28	1506.85	1475.78	39.81%	59.97%	+23.86	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-7	1530.71	1373.86	57.70%	42.08%	+28.40	6-5
1985-11-24	Washington Redskins	L 23-30	1559.11	1549.68	65.41%	34.39%	-24.34	6-6
1985-12-01	Denver Broncos	L 23-31	1534.77	1602.53	54.82%	44.96%	-21.81	6-7
1985-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 44-54	1512.96	1497.69	37.66%	62.13%	-16.76	6-8
1985-12-15	Buffalo Bills	W 30-24	1496.20	1276.26	86.37%	13.52%	+4.65	7-8
1985-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 10-28	1500.85	1600.58	23.77%	76.06%	-14.19	7-9
1985-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-9	1482.94	1393.83	48.02%	51.76%	+16.28	1-0
1985-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 35-49	1499.22	1576.53	53.45%	46.33%	-28.13	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-41	1471.09	1473.63	35.28%	64.51%	+15.71	2-1
1985-09-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1486.80	1460.22	67.61%	32.20%	-35.57	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-26	1451.23	1549.04	23.97%	75.86%	-7.55	2-3
1985-10-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-20	1443.68	1577.59	45.33%	54.45%	+25.41	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-21	1469.09	1436.83	39.98%	59.81%	-11.26	3-4
1985-10-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 21-34	1457.83	1602.27	19.43%	80.42%	-9.86	3-5
1985-11-03	Denver Broncos	W 30-10	1447.97	1637.06	37.64%	62.15%	+39.10	4-5
1985-11-10	Los Angeles Raiders	W 40-34	1487.07	1577.44	51.58%	48.20%	+16.61	5-5
1985-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-30	1503.68	1604.42	23.67%	76.17%	-8.16	5-6
1985-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	L 35-37	1495.52	1345.46	56.75%	43.04%	-11.29	5-7
1985-12-01	Buffalo Bills	W 40-7	1484.23	1307.00	83.22%	16.65%	+13.46	6-7
1985-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 54-44	1497.69	1512.96	62.13%	37.66%	+16.76	7-7
1985-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1514.45	1447.59	72.46%	27.36%	+9.44	8-7
1985-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-38	1523.89	1455.40	45.07%	54.71%	-12.69	8-8
1985-09-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-28	1674.65	1384.18	74.62%	25.20%	-27.76	0-1
1985-09-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-16	1646.89	1400.18	88.08%	11.82%	+7.24	1-1
1985-09-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-10	1654.13	1572.36	46.97%	52.81%	+36.41	2-1
1985-09-29	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1690.54	1429.80	88.90%	11.00%	-21.64	2-2
1985-10-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-17	1668.90	1364.81	76.08%	23.76%	+15.32	3-2
1985-10-13	Chicago Bears	L 10-26	1684.22	1618.37	72.34%	27.48%	-40.69	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-23	1643.53	1409.03	68.07%	31.73%	-13.53	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-14	1630.00	1643.71	33.83%	65.97%	+34.71	4-4
1985-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-13	1664.71	1481.43	83.70%	16.17%	+7.55	5-4
1985-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-17	1672.26	1597.97	45.90%	53.88%	-6.46	5-5
1985-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-3	1665.80	1451.92	85.96%	13.93%	+10.36	6-5
1985-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-6	1676.16	1579.13	75.78%	24.05%	+12.21	7-5
1985-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-8	1688.37	1574.02	51.65%	48.13%	+35.19	8-5
1985-12-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-27	1723.56	1534.23	84.17%	15.71%	-31.30	8-6
1985-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-19	1692.26	1409.90	73.73%	26.09%	+12.73	9-6
1985-12-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-16	1704.99	1550.23	81.34%	18.52%	+10.09	10-6
1985-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-24	1560.72	1502.64	43.59%	56.19%	+15.81	1-0
1985-09-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 49-35	1576.53	1499.22	46.33%	53.45%	+28.14	2-0
1985-09-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-35	1604.67	1560.25	69.81%	30.00%	-32.56	2-1
1985-09-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-28	1572.11	1571.00	35.77%	64.03%	-23.07	2-2
1985-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 26-21	1549.04	1451.23	75.86%	23.97%	+7.54	3-2
1985-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-26	1556.58	1349.49	85.48%	14.40%	+4.05	4-2
1985-10-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1560.63	1596.39	31.06%	68.75%	-7.57	4-3
1985-10-27	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1553.06	1546.34	36.51%	63.28%	-8.90	4-4
1985-11-03	Los Angeles Raiders	W 33-3	1544.16	1612.13	54.79%	44.99%	+34.68	5-4
1985-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-3	1578.84	1402.65	60.39%	39.40%	+27.17	6-4
1985-11-17	New England Patriots	L 13-20	1606.01	1540.94	72.25%	27.57%	-26.88	6-5
1985-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-19	1579.13	1676.16	24.05%	75.78%	-12.21	6-6
1985-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-6	1566.92	1453.79	77.43%	22.40%	+13.38	7-6
1985-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-13	1580.30	1515.62	72.21%	27.61%	+16.49	8-6
1985-12-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-13	1596.79	1612.46	33.58%	66.22%	-14.95	8-7
1985-12-20	Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1581.84	1610.49	60.31%	39.48%	-14.69	8-8
1985-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-24	1562.07	1463.68	49.35%	50.42%	+12.29	1-0
1985-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-27	1574.36	1486.83	74.76%	25.07%	+13.20	2-0
1985-09-22	@ New York Giants	L 17-27	1587.56	1525.02	44.22%	55.56%	-19.68	2-1
1985-09-29	Green Bay Packers	W 43-28	1567.88	1501.85	72.36%	27.46%	+14.97	3-1
1985-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1582.85	1478.52	50.21%	49.57%	-29.13	3-2
1985-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1553.72	1430.19	52.97%	46.81%	-35.74	3-3
1985-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1517.98	1496.42	38.51%	61.28%	-19.54	3-4
1985-10-27	Houston Oilers	L 10-20	1498.44	1358.79	79.98%	19.87%	-35.56	3-5
1985-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-10	1462.88	1584.50	47.08%	52.69%	+24.59	4-5
1985-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-16	1487.47	1319.70	59.23%	40.56%	-33.33	4-6
1985-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1454.14	1480.41	60.63%	39.15%	-26.97	4-7
1985-11-24	New York Giants	L 3-34	1427.17	1581.70	42.41%	57.38%	-33.23	4-8
1985-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-35	1393.94	1555.85	17.91%	81.95%	-10.69	4-9
1985-12-08	New Orleans Saints	W 28-16	1383.25	1430.40	57.73%	42.05%	+20.50	5-9
1985-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-46	1403.75	1565.53	17.92%	81.94%	-14.26	5-10
1985-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 16-27	1389.49	1563.22	39.73%	60.05%	-18.55	5-11
1985-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-38	1452.92	1537.42	25.39%	74.43%	-11.31	0-1
1985-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-31	1441.61	1411.93	67.99%	31.81%	-37.03	0-2
1985-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1404.58	1417.14	33.98%	65.82%	-12.66	0-3
1985-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-30	1391.92	1430.87	30.66%	69.14%	-19.78	0-4
1985-10-06	Chicago Bears	L 19-27	1372.14	1605.69	31.85%	67.95%	-12.68	0-5
1985-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-31	1359.46	1603.65	30.54%	69.27%	-8.60	0-6
1985-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 38-41	1350.86	1628.24	10.10%	89.81%	-2.46	0-7
1985-10-27	New England Patriots	L 14-32	1348.40	1489.88	44.25%	55.53%	-26.42	0-8
1985-11-03	@ New York Giants	L 20-22	1321.98	1574.88	11.45%	88.45%	-2.28	0-9
1985-11-10	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-0	1319.70	1487.47	40.56%	59.23%	+33.32	1-9
1985-11-17	@ New York Jets	L 28-62	1353.02	1570.62	13.67%	86.21%	-11.21	1-10
1985-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 19-16	1341.81	1456.01	48.15%	51.63%	+12.58	2-10
1985-12-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1354.39	1482.11	20.98%	78.86%	-13.53	2-11
1985-12-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-26	1340.86	1398.24	28.46%	71.36%	-17.46	2-12
1985-12-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-31	1323.40	1318.77	64.78%	35.01%	-25.77	2-13
1985-12-22	Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1297.63	1491.89	36.94%	62.85%	-9.01	2-14
1985-09-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-44	1567.39	1519.08	42.21%	57.57%	-32.54	0-1
1985-09-15	Houston Oilers	W 16-13	1534.85	1384.37	80.96%	18.89%	+4.60	1-1
1985-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-19	1539.45	1414.88	78.56%	21.28%	-39.82	1-2
1985-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-45	1499.63	1584.58	25.35%	74.48%	-21.11	1-3
1985-10-07	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1478.52	1582.85	49.57%	50.21%	+29.13	2-3
1985-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1507.65	1425.58	74.17%	25.66%	+16.56	3-3
1985-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1524.21	1538.63	33.74%	66.06%	-17.78	3-4
1985-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-7	1506.43	1520.19	33.83%	65.97%	+24.55	4-4
1985-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-10	1530.98	1356.71	60.13%	39.66%	+32.55	5-4
1985-11-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-13	1563.53	1559.91	64.65%	35.14%	-22.27	5-5
1985-11-18	New York Giants	W 23-21	1541.26	1590.12	57.49%	42.29%	+8.42	6-5
1985-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-23	1549.68	1559.11	34.39%	65.41%	+24.34	7-5
1985-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 8-35	1574.02	1688.37	48.13%	51.65%	-35.19	7-6
1985-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-12	1538.83	1464.54	45.89%	53.88%	+16.95	8-6
1985-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1555.78	1515.84	69.26%	30.54%	+7.44	9-6
1985-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-16	1563.22	1389.49	60.05%	39.73%	+18.55	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1986-01-05	New York Giants	W 21-0	1759.06	1640.90	78.04%	21.96%	+14.13	1-0
1986-01-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-0	1773.19	1575.42	84.89%	15.11%	+10.39	2-0
1986-01-26	@ New England Patriots	W 46-10	1783.58	1687.66	63.46%	36.54%	+30.78	3-0
1986-01-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-24	1484.23	1681.59	15.14%	84.86%	-3.68	0-1
1986-01-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1540.14	1554.14	33.89%	66.11%	-21.28	0-1
1986-01-05	New England Patriots	L 20-27	1653.06	1622.32	68.24%	31.76%	-25.35	0-1
1986-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-0	1554.14	1540.14	66.11%	33.89%	+21.28	1-0
1986-01-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-24	1575.42	1773.19	15.11%	84.89%	-10.39	1-1
1986-01-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1681.59	1484.23	84.86%	15.14%	+3.68	1-0
1986-01-12	New England Patriots	L 14-31	1685.27	1647.67	69.09%	30.91%	-39.99	1-1
1985-12-28	@ New York Jets	W 26-14	1591.84	1579.76	37.33%	62.67%	+30.48	1-0
1986-01-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 27-20	1622.32	1653.06	31.76%	68.24%	+25.35	2-0
1986-01-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-14	1647.67	1685.27	30.91%	69.09%	+39.99	3-0
1986-01-26	Chicago Bears	L 10-46	1687.66	1783.58	36.54%	63.46%	-30.78	3-1
1985-12-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1614.77	1715.08	50.26%	49.74%	+26.13	1-0
1986-01-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-21	1640.90	1759.06	21.96%	78.04%	-14.13	1-1
1985-12-28	New England Patriots	L 14-26	1579.76	1591.84	62.67%	37.33%	-30.49	0-1
1985-12-29	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1715.08	1614.77	49.74%	50.26%	-26.13	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1985-09-29	11.00%	New Orleans Saints	1429.80	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1690.54	17
2	1985-12-09	15.71%	Los Angeles Rams	1534.23	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1723.56	20
3	1985-10-27	19.87%	Houston Oilers	1358.79	20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1498.44	10
4	1985-09-22	21.28%	Philadelphia Eagles	1414.88	19	@ Washington Redskins	1539.45	6
5	1985-12-01	22.21%	Minnesota Vikings	1373.83	28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1488.95	23
6	1985-12-01	22.24%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1500.19	35	@ New York Giants	1614.93	33
7	1985-09-22	23.95%	New York Jets	1452.67	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1550.74	3
8	1985-09-30	24.02%	Cincinnati Bengals	1457.92	37	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1555.28	24
9	1985-09-08	25.20%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1384.18	28	San Francisco 49ers	1674.65	21
10	1985-11-17	25.53%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1317.63	30	Los Angeles Rams	1605.06	14
11	1985-12-22	27.23%	Atlanta Falcons	1329.18	16	@ New Orleans Saints	1397.17	10
12	1985-10-13	27.48%	Chicago Bears	1618.37	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1684.22	10
13	1985-11-17	27.57%	New England Patriots	1540.94	20	@ Seattle Seahawks	1606.01	13
14	1985-09-08	29.62%	@ Houston Oilers	1367.28	26	Miami Dolphins	1619.09	23
15	1985-09-23	30.00%	Los Angeles Rams	1560.25	35	@ Seattle Seahawks	1604.67	24
16	1985-11-24	30.53%	New Orleans Saints	1359.59	30	@ Minnesota Vikings	1399.60	23
17	1986-01-12 *	30.91%	New England Patriots	1647.67	31	@ Miami Dolphins	1685.27	14
18	1985-10-20	31.73%	@ Detroit Lions	1409.03	23	San Francisco 49ers	1643.53	21
19	1986-01-05 *	31.76%	New England Patriots	1622.32	27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1653.06	20
20	1985-09-15	31.81%	Minnesota Vikings	1411.93	31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1441.61	16
21	1985-12-08	31.97%	Los Angeles Raiders	1595.93	17	@ Denver Broncos	1624.35	14
22	1985-09-29	32.20%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1460.22	21	@ San Diego Chargers	1486.80	7
23	1985-10-27	33.83%	San Francisco 49ers	1630.00	28	@ Los Angeles Rams	1643.71	14
24	1985-10-27	33.83%	Washington Redskins	1506.43	14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1520.19	7
25	1985-11-24	34.39%	Washington Redskins	1549.68	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1559.11	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1985-09-22	48.89	New York Jets	24	1452.67	23.95%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1550.74	75.89%
2	1985-12-01	45.04	@ New Orleans Saints	29	1385.36	36.99%	Los Angeles Rams	3	1579.27	62.80%
3	1985-11-17	44.77	Chicago Bears	44	1697.67	51.81%	@ Dallas Cowboys	0	1582.18	47.97%
4	1985-11-17	41.78	@ Atlanta Falcons	30	1317.63	25.53%	Los Angeles Rams	14	1605.06	74.29%
5	1985-10-27	41.56	@ Indianapolis Colts	37	1356.55	42.92%	Green Bay Packers	10	1507.43	56.86%
6	1985-10-13	40.69	Chicago Bears	26	1618.37	27.48%	@ San Francisco 49ers	10	1684.22	72.34%
7	1986-01-12 *	39.99	New England Patriots	31	1647.67	30.91%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1685.27	69.09%
8	1985-09-22	39.82	Philadelphia Eagles	19	1414.88	21.28%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1539.45	78.56%
9	1985-11-03	39.10	@ San Diego Chargers	30	1447.97	37.64%	Denver Broncos	10	1637.06	62.15%
10	1985-09-30	38.44	Cincinnati Bengals	37	1457.92	24.02%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1555.28	75.81%
11	1985-09-15	37.04	Minnesota Vikings	31	1411.93	31.81%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	1441.61	67.99%
12	1985-09-22	36.41	San Francisco 49ers	34	1654.13	46.97%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	10	1572.36	52.81%
13	1985-10-13	35.74	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1430.19	46.81%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1553.72	52.97%
14	1985-09-29	35.58	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1460.22	32.20%	@ San Diego Chargers	7	1486.80	67.61%
15	1985-10-27	35.56	Houston Oilers	20	1358.79	19.87%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	10	1498.44	79.98%
16	1985-12-01	35.19	San Francisco 49ers	35	1688.37	51.65%	@ Washington Redskins	8	1574.02	48.13%
17	1985-10-27	34.71	San Francisco 49ers	28	1630.00	33.83%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1643.71	65.97%
18	1985-11-03	34.69	@ Seattle Seahawks	33	1544.16	54.79%	Los Angeles Raiders	3	1612.13	44.99%
19	1985-12-08	34.00	@ Cincinnati Bengals	50	1481.84	52.39%	Dallas Cowboys	24	1566.54	47.39%
20	1985-10-20	33.70	@ Houston Oilers	44	1325.09	41.68%	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1484.80	58.10%
21	1985-11-10	33.33	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	1319.70	40.56%	St. Louis Cardinals	0	1487.47	59.23%
22	1985-11-24	33.23	New York Giants	34	1581.70	57.38%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	3	1427.17	42.41%
23	1985-10-27	33.10	Denver Broncos	30	1603.96	47.18%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1520.72	52.60%
24	1985-09-08	33.04	Kansas City Chiefs	47	1543.36	47.26%	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1459.56	52.52%
25	1985-09-29	32.72	Los Angeles Raiders	35	1535.96	39.73%	@ New England Patriots	20	1505.52	60.06%