1984 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1981

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

5th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1982

Biggest Overachiever

Denver Broncos

3.90 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.10 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

3.10 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.10 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	9	7	.562	-	387	310	+77	9.02	-0.02
2	Cincinnati Bengals	8	8	.500	1	339	339	0	7.74	+0.26
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	11	.312	4	250	297	-47	7.28	-2.28
4	Houston Oilers	3	13	.188	6	240	437	-197	4.13	-1.13

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	14	2	.875	-	513	298	+215	12.05	+1.95
2	New England Patriots	9	7	.562	5	362	352	+10	8.41	+0.59
3	New York Jets	7	9	.438	7	332	364	-32	8.71	-1.71
4	Indianapolis Colts	4	12	.250	10	239	414	-175	5.43	-1.43
5	Buffalo Bills	2	14	.125	12	250	454	-204	5.10	-3.10

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	13	3	.812	-	353	241	+112	9.10	+3.90
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	418	282	+136	10.19	+1.81
3	Los Angeles Raiders Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	368	278	+90	10.34	+0.66
4	Kansas City Chiefs	8	8	.500	5	314	324	-10	7.43	+0.57
5	San Diego Chargers	7	9	.438	6	394	413	-19	7.10	-0.10

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	10	6	0	.625	-	325	248	+77	9.11	+0.89
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	0	.500	2	390	309	+81	7.80	+0.20
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	0	.375	4	335	380	-45	6.08	-0.08
4	Detroit Lions	4	11	1	.281	5.5	283	408	-125	6.77	-2.27
5	Minnesota Vikings	3	13	0	.188	7	276	484	-208	5.43	-2.43

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	11	5	0	.688	-	426	310	+116	10.52	+0.48
2	New York Giants Playoffs	9	7	0	.562	2	299	301	-2	7.94	+1.06
3	St. Louis Cardinals	9	7	0	.562	2	423	345	+78	8.20	+0.80
4	Dallas Cowboys	9	7	0	.562	2	308	308	0	8.81	+0.19
5	Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	1	.406	4.5	278	320	-42	6.98	-0.48

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	15	1	.938	-	475	227	+248	12.05	+2.95
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	.625	5	346	316	+30	8.52	+1.48
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	8	298	361	-63	6.95	+0.05
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	11	281	382	-101	6.81	-2.81

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 13

Los Angeles Raiders 7

Dec 22

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 31

Seattle Seahawks 10

Dec 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Denver Broncos 17

Dec 30

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Jan 6

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 16

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 23

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 21

New York Giants 10

Dec 29

Chicago Bears 23

Washington Redskins 19

Dec 30

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 23

Chicago Bears 0

Jan 6

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 38

Miami Dolphins 16

Jan 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1766	15	12.05	+2.95	99.24%	3	9	11	12	13	15	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1719	14	12.05	+1.95	94.57%	5	9	11	12	13	15	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1675	13	9.10	+3.90	99.32%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1659	11	10.34	+0.66	73.94%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1641	11	10.52	+0.48	70.19%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1611	12	10.19	+1.81	89.92%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1603	9	8.20	+0.80	75.37%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1590	8	7.80	+0.20	64.99%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1578	8	7.43	+0.57	72.41%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1570	9	9.02	-0.02	60.63%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1564	10	8.52	+1.48	85.64%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1555	10	9.11	+0.89	76.74%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1535	9	8.81	+0.19	64.77%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1518	9	7.94	+1.06	79.99%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1504	8	7.74	+0.26	66.67%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1491	9	8.41	+0.59	72.42%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1468	7	7.10	-0.10	59.33%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1431	7	6.95	+0.05	62.38%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1430	5	7.28	-2.28	18.20%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1422	6.5	6.98	-0.48	40.92%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1413	6	6.08	-0.08	60.27%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1398	7	8.71	-1.71	26.59%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1368	4.5	6.77	-2.27	11.39%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1329	4	6.81	-2.81	10.73%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1303	2	5.10	-3.10	6.68%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1295	3	5.43	-2.43	14.27%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC East	1294	4	5.43	-1.43	31.75%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1268	3	4.13	-1.13	37.57%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	0-4 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Colts	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	-
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	-
New York Jets	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	-	-
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	3-1 (3.3 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.12%	1.56%	0.89%	0.22%	0.22%	4.91%
7–13	0.89%	2.23%	4.69%	2.46%	3.57%	2.68%	1.12%	17.63%
14–20	1.12%	4.69%	9.38%	7.14%	3.79%	1.79%	0.45%	28.35%
21–27	1.56%	2.46%	7.14%	4.91%	3.12%	1.12%	1.34%	21.65%
28–34	0.89%	3.57%	3.79%	3.12%	4.46%	0.89%	0.22%	16.96%
35–41	0.22%	2.68%	1.79%	1.12%	0.89%	—	0.22%	6.92%
42+	0.22%	1.12%	0.45%	1.34%	0.22%	0.22%	—	3.57%
Total	4.91%	17.63%	28.35%	21.65%	16.96%	6.92%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	21.21	+0.00
SD	10.24	10.24	15.75
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	52	52	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	23.88	-6.31
SD	11.21	8.12	14.85
CV	0.64	0.34	—
Max	42	35	+32
Min	5	10	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.62	28.38	-12.75
SD	6.43	12.36	14.51
CV	0.41	0.44	—
Max	28	52	+11
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	15.50	+4.81
SD	10.61	11.68	18.77
CV	0.52	0.75	—
Max	44	38	+35
Min	7	0	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.19	21.19	+0.00
SD	10.92	9.82	14.84
CV	0.52	0.46	—
Max	52	43	+31
Min	6	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	37.50%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.62	18.56	-2.94
SD	7.49	9.22	14.10
CV	0.48	0.50	—
Max	27	41	+17
Min	0	7	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	19.25	+0.00
SD	7.72	9.38	12.45
CV	0.40	0.49	—
Max	30	34	+19
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	15.06	+7.00
SD	9.90	6.97	13.36
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	42	27	+30
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	25.50	-7.81
SD	8.19	8.43	11.41
CV	0.46	0.33	—
Max	31	41	+6
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.38	19.31	+5.06
SD	11.67	8.93	15.59
CV	0.48	0.46	—
Max	45	34	+32
Min	6	6	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	27.31	-12.31
SD	7.00	7.56	10.84
CV	0.47	0.28	—
Max	31	42	+11
Min	3	13	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	25.88	-10.94
SD	9.93	12.09	15.57
CV	0.66	0.47	—
Max	35	50	+14
Min	3	5	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.62	20.25	-0.62
SD	12.88	9.31	17.64
CV	0.66	0.46	—
Max	42	45	+27
Min	0	6	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	17.38	+5.62
SD	11.14	9.76	9.46
CV	0.48	0.56	—
Max	45	37	+21
Min	6	3	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	19.75	+1.88
SD	10.07	8.16	15.16
CV	0.47	0.41	—
Max	34	33	+21
Min	0	10	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	50.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.06	18.62	+13.44
SD	6.48	10.65	12.74
CV	0.20	0.57	—
Max	44	45	+37
Min	21	7	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	30.25	-13.00
SD	8.24	11.14	14.76
CV	0.48	0.37	—
Max	31	51	+7
Min	3	16	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	22.00	+0.62
SD	11.64	8.74	16.56
CV	0.51	0.40	—
Max	50	44	+33
Min	7	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.62	22.56	-3.94
SD	8.64	9.72	12.12
CV	0.46	0.43	—
Max	34	36	+17
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	18.81	-0.12
SD	8.48	9.98	14.01
CV	0.45	0.53	—
Max	37	33	+24
Min	3	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.75	22.75	-2.00
SD	8.31	8.93	11.64
CV	0.40	0.39	—
Max	43	41	+21
Min	5	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.38	20.00	-2.62
SD	7.68	7.17	11.26
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	27	34	+14
Min	0	7	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	43.75%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.19	19.38	+4.81
SD	11.40	8.13	14.73
CV	0.47	0.42	—
Max	52	37	+28
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	—	18.75%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.62	25.81	-1.19
SD	11.52	12.91	17.39
CV	0.47	0.50	—
Max	42	52	+29
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.69	14.19	+15.50
SD	9.65	8.74	13.58
CV	0.33	0.62	—
Max	51	31	+44
Min	14	0	-3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.12	17.62	+8.50
SD	10.14	12.51	19.96
CV	0.39	0.71	—
Max	45	38	+45
Min	7	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.44	21.56	+4.88
SD	8.54	8.43	12.19
CV	0.32	0.39	—
Max	38	36	+30
Min	10	7	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.94	23.75	-2.81
SD	9.67	9.40	13.02
CV	0.46	0.40	—
Max	41	44	+20
Min	7	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	19.38	+7.25
SD	8.19	11.01	15.34
CV	0.31	0.57	—
Max	41	37	+28
Min	10	0	-24

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+0.4
Allowed	0.73	-0.4
Differential	0.92	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	13	9.10	+3.90
2	San Francisco 49ers	15	12.05	+2.95
3	Miami Dolphins	14	12.05	+1.95
4	Seattle Seahawks	12	10.19	+1.81
5	Los Angeles Rams	10	8.52	+1.48

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	2	5.10	-3.10
2	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.81	-2.81
3	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.43	-2.43
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	7.28	-2.28
5	Detroit Lions	4.5	6.77	-2.27

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	10	Sep 16 – Nov 18	1 in 333
2	Miami Dolphins	11	Sep 2 – Nov 11	1 in 44
3	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Dec 2 – Dec 16	1 in 29
4	Houston Oilers	2	Nov 11 – Nov 18	1 in 28
5	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 7 – Oct 28	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	9	Oct 14 – Dec 9	1 in 139
2	New York Jets	6	Oct 28 – Dec 2	1 in 121
3	Buffalo Bills	11	Sep 2 – Nov 11	1 in 117
4	Houston Oilers	10	Sep 2 – Nov 4	1 in 31
5	Green Bay Packers	7	Sep 9 – Oct 21	1 in 28

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.15%	27.71%	13.23%	1.91%
Cincinnati Bengals	23.97%	36.41%	31.97%	7.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.11%	31.80%	39.30%	10.79%
Houston Oilers	0.77%	4.08%	15.50%	79.64%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	83.54%	13.18%	2.89%	0.35%	0.03%
New York Jets	8.44%	42.91%	33.44%	11.59%	3.62%
New England Patriots	7.50%	36.13%	38.29%	13.67%	4.40%
Indianapolis Colts	0.32%	4.35%	13.73%	39.15%	42.45%
Buffalo Bills	0.20%	3.43%	11.65%	35.24%	49.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Raiders	39.47%	29.38%	18.35%	9.09%	3.72%
Seattle Seahawks	36.09%	29.41%	19.63%	10.38%	4.49%
Denver Broncos	17.08%	23.99%	28.03%	19.82%	11.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.92%	9.29%	18.20%	31.77%	36.83%
San Diego Chargers	3.45%	7.93%	15.79%	28.94%	43.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	53.78%	24.76%	12.73%	6.16%	2.57%
Green Bay Packers	25.25%	31.20%	22.32%	14.02%	7.22%
Detroit Lions	11.28%	21.15%	26.49%	23.59%	17.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.47%	13.95%	21.40%	28.46%	29.71%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	8.94%	17.07%	27.77%	43.01%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	55.25%	23.50%	12.37%	6.35%	2.54%
Dallas Cowboys	18.52%	27.39%	23.69%	18.34%	12.05%
St. Louis Cardinals	12.62%	21.05%	23.93%	23.42%	18.98%
New York Giants	9.42%	17.66%	22.89%	25.74%	24.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.19%	10.40%	17.12%	26.15%	42.14%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	86.63%	11.10%	1.99%	0.28%
Los Angeles Rams	9.18%	49.54%	27.00%	14.27%
New Orleans Saints	2.43%	20.38%	36.33%	40.86%
Atlanta Falcons	1.76%	18.98%	34.68%	44.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	52.41%	23.33%	10.39%	5.78%	3.58%	2.00%	1.13%	0.74%	0.36%	0.18%	0.06%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Raiders	14.98%	20.24%	15.37%	12.99%	9.86%	7.92%	6.36%	4.45%	3.13%	2.22%	1.36%	0.73%	0.31%	0.07%
Seattle Seahawks	13.43%	18.59%	14.93%	12.76%	10.47%	8.08%	6.75%	5.17%	3.77%	2.79%	1.78%	1.03%	0.34%	0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.48%	9.01%	15.30%	13.05%	11.91%	11.47%	9.43%	7.81%	6.48%	4.81%	3.09%	1.89%	0.98%	0.29%
Denver Broncos	5.12%	9.46%	10.57%	11.34%	11.10%	10.76%	10.13%	8.63%	7.51%	6.11%	4.37%	3.02%	1.45%	0.45%
New York Jets	3.35%	5.41%	8.79%	11.83%	12.50%	11.48%	10.80%	10.27%	7.99%	6.23%	5.08%	3.35%	1.92%	0.99%
New England Patriots	2.83%	4.48%	6.93%	9.59%	11.57%	11.06%	11.60%	11.30%	9.40%	7.56%	6.00%	4.20%	2.29%	1.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.01%	3.02%	6.40%	7.18%	8.53%	10.61%	10.60%	11.09%	11.59%	10.37%	8.45%	5.77%	3.68%	1.69%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.70%	2.21%	4.50%	5.60%	6.91%	8.62%	9.78%	10.71%	11.96%	11.93%	10.44%	7.97%	5.90%	2.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.84%	2.22%	3.46%	4.77%	6.08%	7.44%	8.93%	10.02%	11.53%	12.63%	11.45%	10.56%	7.12%	2.97%
San Diego Chargers	0.78%	1.80%	2.68%	3.76%	4.85%	6.32%	7.97%	9.29%	10.89%	12.54%	12.53%	12.41%	9.18%	5.00%
Indianapolis Colts	0.05%	0.15%	0.36%	0.74%	1.33%	2.07%	3.08%	4.88%	6.72%	9.43%	14.09%	17.25%	18.45%	21.41%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.08%	0.22%	0.46%	1.01%	1.58%	2.37%	3.91%	5.58%	8.24%	12.85%	17.14%	21.00%	25.53%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.14%	0.30%	0.60%	1.09%	1.73%	3.08%	4.98%	8.45%	14.63%	27.38%	37.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Francisco 49ers	56.41%	22.86%	9.72%	4.71%	2.85%	1.50%	0.84%	0.54%	0.29%	0.13%	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins	20.39%	25.24%	15.60%	11.41%	7.78%	5.77%	4.44%	3.07%	2.27%	1.70%	1.11%	0.67%	0.41%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	5.57%	12.61%	17.82%	12.55%	10.52%	9.55%	7.33%	6.18%	5.21%	3.97%	3.24%	2.52%	1.63%	1.30%
Dallas Cowboys	4.63%	9.96%	10.76%	12.08%	10.71%	9.47%	9.33%	7.43%	6.64%	6.26%	4.69%	3.74%	2.99%	1.30%
Los Angeles Rams	3.88%	6.24%	9.29%	12.17%	12.91%	10.51%	9.44%	8.74%	7.41%	6.03%	5.24%	4.13%	2.92%	1.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.81%	6.64%	7.87%	9.53%	9.06%	8.96%	9.76%	8.65%	7.95%	8.00%	6.63%	5.72%	5.44%	2.97%
Green Bay Packers	1.33%	4.48%	8.53%	8.46%	9.40%	10.72%	9.33%	8.96%	8.69%	7.76%	7.00%	6.23%	4.80%	4.31%
New York Giants	2.30%	4.78%	6.20%	7.90%	8.41%	8.83%	9.51%	8.80%	8.71%	9.09%	7.73%	7.06%	6.93%	3.75%
New Orleans Saints	0.72%	1.49%	2.83%	4.79%	6.40%	6.90%	8.25%	9.59%	10.06%	10.11%	11.08%	11.29%	10.43%	6.06%
Detroit Lions	0.52%	1.55%	3.41%	4.17%	5.46%	7.34%	7.38%	8.72%	9.78%	9.51%	10.36%	10.56%	9.98%	11.26%
Atlanta Falcons	0.49%	1.15%	2.28%	4.02%	5.86%	6.54%	7.79%	9.55%	9.99%	10.34%	11.66%	11.95%	11.53%	6.85%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.75%	2.04%	3.02%	4.47%	5.30%	6.25%	7.65%	8.11%	8.85%	10.60%	10.12%	10.84%	12.72%	9.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.14%	0.73%	1.91%	2.52%	3.49%	4.79%	5.43%	6.81%	7.93%	8.84%	10.79%	12.21%	13.83%	20.58%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.24%	0.77%	1.21%	1.84%	2.85%	3.52%	4.83%	6.23%	7.66%	10.26%	13.05%	16.38%	31.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
San Francisco 49ers	30.31%	23.59%	13.02%	10.55%	5.69%	4.88%	2.93%	2.38%	1.63%	1.43%	0.92%	0.71%	0.51%	0.41%	0.31%	0.24%	0.17%	0.10%	0.09%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	30.85%	22.24%	13.56%	9.85%	6.30%	4.40%	3.17%	2.45%	1.85%	1.37%	1.01%	0.80%	0.57%	0.43%	0.33%	0.27%	0.19%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins	10.08%	10.17%	11.77%	11.21%	8.48%	7.89%	6.04%	5.87%	4.34%	4.08%	3.16%	3.10%	2.36%	2.17%	1.71%	1.64%	1.27%	1.02%	0.91%	0.74%	0.63%	0.44%	0.34%	0.26%	0.18%	0.10%	0.06%	0.02%
Los Angeles Raiders	7.32%	9.15%	11.06%	9.48%	9.06%	7.17%	7.14%	5.67%	5.20%	4.29%	4.30%	3.40%	3.11%	2.44%	2.27%	1.92%	1.55%	1.25%	1.10%	0.86%	0.67%	0.55%	0.39%	0.27%	0.18%	0.11%	0.06%	0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	6.50%	8.39%	10.13%	8.99%	8.63%	6.92%	7.12%	5.73%	5.54%	4.33%	4.47%	3.57%	3.43%	2.60%	2.70%	2.20%	1.88%	1.38%	1.37%	1.09%	0.95%	0.70%	0.53%	0.37%	0.22%	0.15%	0.07%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	2.17%	3.67%	5.36%	6.38%	7.14%	8.00%	6.19%	6.55%	5.52%	5.65%	4.71%	5.02%	4.28%	4.18%	3.41%	3.23%	2.91%	2.81%	2.40%	2.01%	1.89%	1.50%	1.46%	1.07%	0.98%	0.67%	0.59%	0.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.89%	3.02%	4.62%	5.44%	6.94%	7.34%	6.39%	6.53%	6.12%	5.98%	5.34%	5.41%	4.76%	4.59%	3.73%	3.81%	3.27%	3.15%	2.26%	2.40%	1.66%	1.64%	1.09%	1.03%	0.64%	0.55%	0.26%	0.13%
Denver Broncos	2.00%	3.50%	5.04%	5.24%	5.88%	5.57%	6.23%	5.69%	5.96%	5.07%	5.81%	5.01%	5.01%	4.29%	4.55%	3.85%	3.75%	2.99%	3.03%	2.58%	2.18%	1.86%	1.61%	1.25%	0.85%	0.65%	0.37%	0.17%
Dallas Cowboys	1.56%	2.81%	3.96%	4.97%	5.23%	5.67%	5.76%	5.82%	5.60%	5.57%	5.24%	4.97%	4.79%	4.57%	4.26%	3.93%	3.79%	3.24%	3.55%	2.88%	2.72%	2.06%	2.12%	1.64%	1.44%	0.96%	0.62%	0.27%
New York Jets	1.28%	2.16%	2.98%	3.72%	4.72%	5.10%	5.85%	5.97%	5.96%	6.04%	5.74%	5.63%	5.03%	5.15%	4.90%	4.51%	3.80%	3.84%	3.01%	3.11%	2.50%	2.44%	1.84%	1.59%	1.18%	0.91%	0.64%	0.39%
Los Angeles Rams	1.21%	2.12%	2.83%	3.49%	4.24%	4.97%	5.39%	5.89%	5.78%	6.46%	5.12%	5.54%	5.10%	5.16%	4.48%	4.49%	4.03%	3.94%	3.42%	3.05%	3.01%	2.56%	2.28%	1.81%	1.61%	1.06%	0.65%	0.30%
New England Patriots	1.15%	1.71%	2.66%	2.80%	4.06%	3.79%	5.29%	4.84%	5.71%	5.36%	5.84%	5.30%	5.37%	5.39%	5.32%	4.99%	4.38%	4.51%	3.67%	3.67%	2.96%	2.98%	2.30%	2.01%	1.43%	1.19%	0.81%	0.52%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.95%	1.57%	2.65%	3.29%	3.74%	4.02%	4.50%	4.74%	4.65%	4.83%	4.75%	4.59%	5.03%	4.85%	4.66%	4.64%	4.20%	4.16%	4.37%	4.05%	3.58%	3.23%	3.14%	2.79%	2.77%	2.01%	1.47%	0.74%
Green Bay Packers	0.40%	0.88%	1.59%	2.44%	3.03%	4.13%	3.66%	4.57%	4.30%	4.94%	4.65%	5.57%	4.91%	5.19%	4.51%	4.92%	4.70%	4.83%	4.25%	4.12%	4.10%	3.64%	3.45%	3.14%	2.78%	2.17%	2.05%	1.06%
New York Giants	0.68%	1.21%	1.82%	2.53%	2.99%	3.17%	3.82%	3.94%	4.27%	4.43%	4.69%	4.52%	4.70%	4.84%	4.99%	4.70%	4.82%	4.24%	5.24%	4.40%	4.47%	3.69%	4.01%	3.31%	3.49%	2.38%	1.81%	0.84%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.37%	0.76%	1.47%	1.88%	2.99%	3.25%	3.61%	3.81%	4.38%	4.37%	5.04%	5.01%	5.17%	5.26%	5.20%	5.33%	5.44%	5.44%	4.63%	5.04%	4.17%	4.36%	3.24%	3.14%	2.33%	2.03%	1.36%	0.91%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.23%	0.52%	1.01%	1.35%	2.05%	2.45%	2.74%	2.98%	3.58%	3.55%	4.10%	4.21%	4.52%	4.96%	4.81%	5.30%	5.27%	5.86%	5.02%	5.98%	4.73%	5.52%	4.11%	4.35%	3.40%	3.48%	2.28%	1.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.23%	0.58%	1.07%	1.28%	1.78%	2.03%	2.66%	2.69%	3.27%	3.24%	4.18%	3.73%	4.52%	4.35%	5.21%	5.18%	5.41%	5.32%	5.82%	5.83%	5.24%	5.48%	4.88%	4.97%	3.87%	3.51%	2.17%	1.49%
New Orleans Saints	0.16%	0.38%	0.59%	0.89%	1.17%	1.54%	2.00%	2.41%	2.81%	3.24%	3.40%	3.56%	4.13%	4.24%	4.81%	4.73%	5.27%	5.20%	5.55%	5.30%	5.97%	5.54%	5.97%	5.48%	5.25%	4.67%	3.35%	2.37%
San Diego Chargers	0.23%	0.48%	0.84%	1.03%	1.49%	1.54%	2.15%	2.04%	2.83%	2.62%	3.51%	3.27%	4.03%	3.86%	4.83%	4.64%	5.11%	5.11%	5.68%	6.01%	5.52%	6.10%	5.49%	5.91%	4.80%	4.83%	3.27%	2.79%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.16%	0.41%	0.67%	1.01%	1.26%	1.63%	1.99%	2.25%	2.50%	2.92%	3.09%	3.37%	3.83%	4.02%	4.34%	4.45%	4.75%	4.77%	5.68%	5.56%	5.51%	5.27%	5.99%	5.55%	6.44%	5.04%	4.55%	2.94%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%	0.25%	0.43%	0.69%	0.90%	1.26%	1.61%	2.16%	2.38%	3.11%	2.93%	3.56%	3.74%	4.25%	4.50%	4.93%	5.15%	5.41%	5.62%	5.52%	6.34%	5.80%	6.37%	5.76%	6.17%	4.71%	3.91%	2.46%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.29%	0.51%	0.82%	1.12%	1.61%	1.72%	2.26%	2.42%	2.91%	3.02%	3.83%	3.56%	4.25%	4.06%	4.70%	4.93%	5.45%	5.08%	5.17%	5.75%	5.53%	5.97%	5.32%	5.81%	4.95%	5.37%	3.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.07%	0.20%	0.37%	0.57%	0.90%	1.00%	1.37%	1.42%	1.80%	1.87%	2.53%	2.81%	3.05%	3.14%	3.51%	4.19%	4.38%	4.78%	4.78%	5.90%	5.83%	6.90%	6.58%	7.95%	7.59%	9.73%	6.79%
Minnesota Vikings	<0.01%	0.01%	0.07%	0.11%	0.21%	0.36%	0.40%	0.64%	0.74%	0.92%	1.07%	1.52%	1.67%	1.89%	2.20%	2.54%	3.14%	3.49%	4.05%	4.23%	5.62%	5.50%	7.40%	7.27%	9.52%	9.60%	14.24%	11.59%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.11%	0.19%	0.22%	0.36%	0.42%	0.66%	0.77%	1.05%	1.13%	1.49%	1.66%	2.34%	2.47%	2.99%	3.53%	3.98%	4.87%	5.56%	7.03%	7.07%	8.87%	8.70%	10.31%	10.78%	13.34%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.16%	0.21%	0.27%	0.48%	0.55%	0.76%	0.83%	1.16%	1.32%	1.78%	2.01%	2.43%	2.88%	3.59%	4.12%	5.09%	6.35%	6.96%	8.77%	9.10%	11.73%	12.57%	16.67%
Houston Oilers	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.12%	0.17%	0.24%	0.29%	0.43%	0.60%	0.65%	0.89%	1.22%	1.56%	1.76%	2.51%	3.18%	4.34%	5.04%	7.45%	8.88%	14.62%	16.96%	28.87%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	52.41%	24.59%	6.54%	6.89%	4.64%	4.92%
Los Angeles Raiders	14.98%	19.98%	4.51%	19.00%	12.51%	29.03%
Seattle Seahawks	13.43%	18.22%	4.44%	18.34%	13.10%	32.47%
Denver Broncos	5.12%	9.19%	2.78%	14.33%	12.87%	55.72%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.48%	10.37%	42.30%	1.75%	3.97%	37.14%
New York Jets	3.35%	3.79%	1.30%	14.47%	16.53%	60.57%
New England Patriots	2.83%	3.34%	1.33%	11.40%	14.02%	67.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.01%	3.53%	19.43%	2.10%	4.72%	69.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.84%	2.25%	0.83%	5.04%	6.20%	84.84%
San Diego Chargers	0.78%	1.87%	0.80%	3.89%	4.91%	87.76%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.70%	2.61%	14.81%	1.77%	4.00%	76.12%
Indianapolis Colts	0.05%	0.16%	0.11%	0.61%	1.38%	97.69%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.09%	0.08%	0.38%	1.01%	98.42%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.74%	0.03%	0.15%	99.05%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	56.41%	23.17%	7.05%	6.34%	3.45%	3.57%
Washington Redskins	20.39%	25.94%	8.91%	14.66%	9.46%	20.63%
Chicago Bears	5.57%	13.79%	34.42%	3.27%	5.78%	37.17%
Dallas Cowboys	4.63%	9.86%	4.02%	15.43%	12.53%	53.51%
Los Angeles Rams	3.88%	3.77%	1.54%	18.05%	16.02%	56.75%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.81%	6.76%	3.05%	11.48%	10.24%	65.66%
New York Giants	2.30%	4.73%	2.39%	9.31%	9.31%	71.96%
Green Bay Packers	1.33%	5.08%	18.85%	3.31%	6.37%	65.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.75%	2.09%	1.34%	4.87%	5.56%	85.38%
New Orleans Saints	0.72%	1.06%	0.65%	5.48%	7.36%	84.73%
Detroit Lions	0.52%	1.86%	8.90%	1.65%	3.79%	83.28%
Atlanta Falcons	0.49%	0.76%	0.51%	4.75%	6.48%	87.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.14%	0.85%	5.48%	0.99%	2.42%	90.11%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.29%	2.88%	0.40%	1.23%	95.16%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+15.62%

Fortress

57.59%0.45%41.96%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 54.74 Elo pts.

20 Elo

0.050 points per Elo point

050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.29 points

Lean Home

-8+2.74+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.3

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

34%

San Francisco 49ers, 1st of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

35.7%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%50%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.48 · As Expected: 1.48 to 2.04 · Elevated: 2.04 to 2.78 · High Variance: 2.78 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.08 · Close: 4.08 to 5.52 · Off Target: 5.52 to 7.2 · Well Off Target: 7.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.48 · As Expected: 2.48 to 4.14 · More Than Expected: 4.14 to 6.62 · Far More Than Expected: 6.62 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.66 wins

As Expected

01.855

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.96

Pinpoint

04.8010

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.32%

Denver Broncos

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

6.68%

Buffalo Bills

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

03.310

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.97

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

95%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

26%

Some Drama

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.31

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.84

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.60

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

33%

As Expected

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Favorites Held

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.2 · Well Above Noise: 0.2 and up.

Probability calibration

0.32

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.096

Within Noise

00.0990.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	94.36%	94.36%	73.75%	55.40%	33.90%
Miami Dolphins	91.20%	91.20%	62.04%	42.15%	22.48%
Los Angeles Raiders	60.69%	60.69%	36.61%	18.41%	8.56%
Washington Redskins	71.06%	71.06%	40.05%	17.46%	8.32%
Denver Broncos	35.56%	35.56%	20.26%	10.64%	5.34%
Seattle Seahawks	55.45%	55.45%	30.00%	12.69%	5.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.80%	59.80%	22.80%	8.22%	3.21%
Chicago Bears	58.19%	58.19%	22.46%	6.96%	2.67%
St. Louis Cardinals	25.58%	25.58%	11.00%	4.34%	1.89%
Green Bay Packers	30.36%	30.36%	12.16%	4.30%	1.86%
Los Angeles Rams	34.07%	27.31%	12.66%	4.06%	1.65%
Dallas Cowboys	32.74%	32.74%	12.80%	4.01%	1.44%
New York Giants	18.62%	18.25%	6.27%	1.87%	0.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.24%	9.79%	4.12%	1.66%	0.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.49%	26.49%	7.57%	2.13%	0.63%
New England Patriots	25.42%	16.57%	5.84%	1.75%	0.52%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.77%	19.77%	4.22%	0.89%	0.21%
San Diego Chargers	8.80%	6.88%	2.26%	0.61%	0.17%
New York Jets	31.00%	15.97%	4.04%	0.82%	0.17%
New Orleans Saints	12.84%	6.66%	2.05%	0.44%	0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.43%	7.75%	1.97%	0.41%	0.09%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.46%	7.46%	1.46%	0.28%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	12.60%	12.60%	2.15%	0.35%	0.07%
Atlanta Falcons	11.23%	4.20%	0.82%	0.10%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	3.50%	3.50%	0.38%	0.03%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.80%	0.80%	0.09%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	1.39%	0.41%	0.06%	0.01%	<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.99%	0.60%	0.09%	0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		28.6%0.05%	36.0%0.03%	9.8%0.27%	0.0%<0.01%		17.1%0.10%	12.0%0.37%	4.5%0.02%	16.1%0.06%	33.9%0.06%	14.3%0.02%	25.5%0.10%	13.7%0.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	71.4%0.05%		64.2%0.08%	25.8%1.09%	100.0%<0.01%	69.5%0.06%	39.6%0.41%	28.0%1.45%	20.4%0.34%	48.3%0.75%	58.5%0.84%	37.3%0.05%	54.8%0.35%	30.6%1.35%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	64.0%0.03%	35.8%0.08%		20.2%0.89%		69.0%0.04%	28.5%0.36%	17.0%1.22%	15.8%0.23%	38.7%0.64%	52.3%0.75%	22.4%0.05%	42.0%0.29%	23.9%1.19%
Denver Broncos	90.2%0.27%	74.2%1.09%	79.8%0.89%		97.7%0.04%	91.9%0.36%	63.6%1.27%	52.7%4.06%	43.3%2.25%	75.1%4.82%	82.6%6.15%	67.8%0.92%	75.5%0.88%	58.3%4.20%
Houston Oilers	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		2.3%0.04%		66.7%<0.01%	9.1%0.01%	9.4%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	13.3%0.01%	38.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	5.7%0.03%
Indianapolis Colts		30.5%0.06%	31.0%0.04%	8.1%0.36%	33.3%<0.01%		9.3%0.17%	9.8%0.50%	4.5%0.04%	30.7%0.09%	38.3%0.11%	12.8%0.04%	27.1%0.11%	11.2%0.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	82.9%0.10%	60.4%0.41%	71.5%0.36%	36.4%1.27%	90.9%0.01%	90.7%0.17%		35.2%1.70%	26.5%0.77%	61.7%2.01%	73.4%2.14%	54.8%0.32%	63.8%0.31%	40.3%1.67%
Los Angeles Raiders	88.0%0.37%	72.0%1.45%	83.0%1.22%	47.3%4.06%	90.6%0.03%	90.2%0.50%	64.8%1.70%		40.9%2.88%	72.8%6.11%	82.3%7.74%	61.0%1.21%	75.5%1.18%	56.1%3.06%
Miami Dolphins	95.5%0.02%	79.6%0.34%	84.2%0.23%	56.7%2.25%	100.0%<0.01%	95.5%0.04%	73.5%0.77%	59.1%2.88%		82.8%0.51%	87.1%0.51%	73.3%0.29%	80.6%0.74%	64.9%2.95%
New England Patriots	83.9%0.06%	51.7%0.75%	61.3%0.64%	24.9%4.82%	86.7%0.01%	69.3%0.09%	38.3%2.01%	27.2%6.11%	17.2%0.51%		62.6%2.21%	39.2%0.62%	53.4%1.52%	33.0%6.07%
New York Jets	66.1%0.06%	41.5%0.84%	47.7%0.75%	17.4%6.15%	61.5%0.03%	61.7%0.11%	26.6%2.14%	17.7%7.74%	12.9%0.51%	37.4%2.21%		32.8%0.76%	43.1%1.86%	22.4%7.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	85.7%0.02%	62.7%0.05%	77.6%0.05%	32.2%0.92%	100.0%<0.01%	87.2%0.04%	45.2%0.32%	39.0%1.21%	26.7%0.29%	60.8%0.62%	67.2%0.76%		67.3%0.29%	39.5%1.14%
San Diego Chargers	74.5%0.10%	45.2%0.35%	58.0%0.29%	24.5%0.88%	57.1%<0.01%	72.9%0.11%	36.2%0.31%	24.5%1.18%	19.4%0.74%	46.6%1.52%	56.9%1.86%	32.7%0.29%		28.1%1.16%
Seattle Seahawks	86.3%0.31%	69.4%1.35%	76.1%1.19%	41.7%4.20%	94.3%0.03%	88.8%0.47%	59.7%1.67%	43.9%3.06%	35.1%2.95%	67.0%6.07%	77.6%7.84%	60.5%1.14%	71.9%1.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		24.4%0.49%	22.1%2.35%	44.2%0.25%	18.2%0.56%	21.2%1.04%	55.3%0.08%	35.3%0.26%	25.4%1.30%	37.0%0.75%	5.8%0.27%	16.6%1.71%	43.5%0.15%	12.9%2.03%
Chicago Bears	75.6%0.49%		50.5%1.61%	69.7%0.07%	36.9%0.07%	46.8%1.52%	90.3%0.03%	64.2%0.55%	54.0%1.04%	66.3%0.59%	23.3%0.48%	42.4%1.20%	68.6%0.05%	33.5%1.35%
Dallas Cowboys	77.9%2.35%	49.5%1.61%		76.1%0.95%	47.6%1.75%	45.6%7.29%	81.6%0.30%	67.0%2.57%	52.7%2.33%	67.2%1.15%	19.3%2.03%	40.6%2.85%	72.2%0.65%	33.7%2.14%
Detroit Lions	55.8%0.25%	30.3%0.07%	23.9%0.95%		19.2%0.10%	21.7%0.94%	70.0%0.01%	38.6%0.32%	26.4%0.65%	37.7%0.32%	9.9%0.27%	19.5%0.69%	40.0%0.03%	13.9%0.83%
Green Bay Packers	81.8%0.56%	63.1%0.07%	52.4%1.75%	80.8%0.10%		49.2%1.65%	75.0%0.02%	69.6%0.56%	56.2%1.13%	70.9%0.60%	25.7%0.46%	44.4%1.22%	63.5%0.05%	42.2%1.51%
Los Angeles Rams	78.8%1.04%	53.2%1.52%	54.4%7.29%	78.3%0.94%	50.8%1.65%		81.0%0.26%	69.1%1.26%	56.3%4.55%	68.4%2.64%	22.8%0.29%	44.5%5.64%	74.9%0.55%	39.2%6.44%
Minnesota Vikings	44.7%0.08%	9.7%0.03%	18.4%0.30%	30.0%0.01%	25.0%0.02%	19.0%0.26%		29.6%0.10%	17.8%0.21%	25.6%0.09%	4.7%0.08%	12.4%0.20%	33.3%<0.01%	9.3%0.25%
New Orleans Saints	64.7%0.26%	35.8%0.55%	33.0%2.57%	61.4%0.32%	30.4%0.56%	30.9%1.26%	70.4%0.10%		35.2%1.64%	51.1%0.92%	8.5%0.32%	25.6%1.89%	48.9%0.18%	23.9%2.28%
New York Giants	74.6%1.30%	46.0%1.04%	47.3%2.33%	73.6%0.65%	43.8%1.13%	43.7%4.55%	82.2%0.21%	64.8%1.64%		65.0%0.64%	17.8%1.28%	38.1%1.58%	63.3%0.33%	32.2%1.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	63.0%0.75%	33.7%0.59%	32.8%1.15%	62.3%0.32%	29.1%0.60%	31.6%2.64%	74.4%0.09%	48.9%0.92%	35.0%0.64%		10.2%0.76%	24.1%0.76%	56.9%0.20%	18.0%1.00%
San Francisco 49ers	94.2%0.27%	76.7%0.48%	80.7%2.03%	90.1%0.27%	74.3%0.46%	77.2%0.29%	95.3%0.08%	91.5%0.32%	82.2%1.28%	89.8%0.76%		74.8%1.51%	90.0%0.15%	67.5%1.87%
St. Louis Cardinals	83.4%1.71%	57.6%1.20%	59.4%2.85%	80.5%0.69%	55.6%1.22%	55.5%5.64%	87.6%0.20%	74.4%1.89%	61.9%1.58%	75.9%0.76%	25.2%1.51%		77.6%0.51%	44.4%1.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	56.5%0.15%	31.4%0.05%	27.8%0.65%	60.0%0.03%	36.5%0.05%	25.1%0.55%	66.7%<0.01%	51.1%0.18%	36.7%0.33%	43.1%0.20%	10.0%0.15%	22.4%0.51%		17.7%0.54%
Washington Redskins	87.1%2.03%	66.5%1.35%	66.3%2.14%	86.1%0.83%	57.8%1.51%	60.8%6.44%	90.7%0.25%	76.1%2.28%	67.8%1.93%	82.0%1.00%	32.5%1.87%	55.6%1.95%	82.3%0.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		28.6%0.03%	26.7%0.01%	9.7%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%		20.0%0.01%	13.9%0.11%				12.7%0.07%	30.8%0.01%	10.4%0.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	71.4%0.03%			24.6%3.16%		64.4%0.04%	35.2%0.76%	24.3%7.30%	19.6%5.64%	50.9%1.18%	60.4%1.20%		49.7%0.66%	29.8%6.53%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	73.3%0.01%			17.2%2.41%		71.0%0.03%	29.0%0.59%	17.9%5.38%	13.1%4.13%	37.6%0.85%	53.8%0.96%		38.9%0.54%	21.6%4.86%
Denver Broncos	90.3%0.06%	75.4%3.16%	82.8%2.41%		92.8%0.10%	88.6%0.07%			39.4%17.42%	73.8%2.14%	82.3%2.15%	67.7%8.05%
Houston Oilers	0.0%<0.01%			7.2%0.10%		100.0%<0.01%	7.9%0.04%	11.1%0.20%	4.5%0.15%	34.3%0.03%	30.0%0.04%		22.7%0.02%	10.0%0.21%
Indianapolis Colts		35.6%0.04%	29.0%0.03%	11.4%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%		4.3%0.02%	8.0%0.17%				16.9%0.08%	45.5%0.01%	14.5%0.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	80.0%0.01%	64.8%0.76%	71.0%0.59%		92.1%0.04%	95.7%0.02%			27.2%5.49%	58.4%0.56%	75.8%0.39%	53.0%1.94%
Los Angeles Raiders	86.1%0.11%	75.7%7.30%	82.1%5.38%		88.9%0.20%	92.0%0.17%			38.9%23.21%	73.5%4.64%	82.2%4.19%	66.9%15.49%
Miami Dolphins		80.4%5.64%	86.9%4.13%	60.6%17.42%	95.5%0.15%		72.8%5.49%	61.1%23.21%				74.4%10.98%	82.8%3.38%	67.6%20.80%
New England Patriots		49.1%1.18%	62.4%0.85%	26.2%2.14%	65.7%0.03%		41.6%0.56%	26.5%4.64%				41.4%3.04%	48.2%0.39%	33.1%3.72%
New York Jets		39.6%1.20%	46.2%0.96%	17.7%2.15%	70.0%0.04%		24.2%0.39%	17.8%4.19%				28.9%3.14%	38.0%0.38%	23.2%3.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	87.3%0.07%			32.3%8.05%		83.1%0.08%	47.0%1.94%	33.1%15.49%	25.6%10.98%	58.6%3.04%	71.1%3.14%		63.0%1.47%	40.5%15.54%
San Diego Chargers	69.2%0.01%	50.3%0.66%	61.1%0.54%		77.3%0.02%	54.5%0.01%			17.2%3.38%	51.8%0.39%	62.0%0.38%	37.0%1.47%
Seattle Seahawks	89.6%0.10%	70.2%6.53%	78.4%4.86%		90.0%0.21%	85.5%0.17%			32.4%20.80%	66.9%3.72%	76.8%3.53%	59.5%15.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		21.0%0.87%	19.5%0.45%	38.1%0.14%	20.2%0.43%		48.5%0.03%		26.5%0.25%	32.6%0.09%		20.3%0.34%	36.4%0.08%	13.3%1.52%
Chicago Bears	79.0%0.87%		50.2%7.35%			50.1%5.44%		67.2%1.32%	53.8%3.88%	65.3%1.70%	19.8%14.85%	40.9%5.24%		35.3%17.53%
Dallas Cowboys	80.5%0.45%	49.8%7.35%		76.6%1.61%	46.2%3.46%	49.6%3.06%	83.2%0.43%	67.8%0.71%			19.8%14.73%		70.3%0.94%
Detroit Lions	61.9%0.14%		23.4%1.61%			24.4%0.98%		39.3%0.27%	27.4%0.80%	40.6%0.32%	7.8%3.70%	18.0%1.09%		13.7%3.69%
Green Bay Packers	79.8%0.43%		53.8%3.46%			52.2%2.23%		66.5%0.53%	56.9%1.91%	69.0%0.79%	23.1%9.40%	46.4%2.38%		38.4%9.22%
Los Angeles Rams		49.9%5.44%	50.4%3.06%	75.6%0.98%	47.8%2.23%		82.6%0.22%		57.1%1.51%	67.3%0.67%		43.2%2.16%	73.9%0.50%	36.0%10.54%
Minnesota Vikings	51.5%0.03%		16.8%0.43%			17.4%0.22%		31.9%0.07%	16.3%0.23%	21.7%0.08%	4.9%1.10%	10.5%0.34%		8.5%1.00%
New Orleans Saints		32.8%1.32%	32.2%0.71%	60.7%0.27%	33.5%0.53%		68.1%0.07%		34.5%0.37%	55.0%0.15%		29.8%0.53%	56.7%0.12%	21.8%2.57%
New York Giants	73.5%0.25%	46.2%3.88%		72.6%0.80%	43.1%1.91%	42.9%1.51%	83.7%0.23%	65.5%0.37%			17.4%8.93%		71.0%0.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	67.4%0.09%	34.7%1.70%		59.4%0.32%	31.0%0.79%	32.7%0.67%	78.3%0.08%	45.0%0.15%			11.6%3.75%		52.7%0.19%
San Francisco 49ers		80.2%14.85%	80.2%14.73%	92.2%3.70%	76.9%9.40%		95.1%1.10%		82.6%8.93%	88.4%3.75%		76.3%12.86%	91.2%2.35%	69.2%22.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	79.7%0.34%	59.1%5.24%		82.0%1.09%	53.6%2.38%	56.8%2.16%	89.5%0.34%	70.2%0.53%			23.7%12.86%		78.9%0.63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	63.6%0.08%		29.7%0.94%			26.1%0.50%		43.3%0.12%	29.0%0.38%	47.3%0.19%	8.8%2.35%	21.1%0.63%		18.1%2.28%
Washington Redskins	86.7%1.52%	64.7%17.53%		86.3%3.69%	61.6%9.22%	64.0%10.54%	91.5%1.00%	78.2%2.57%			30.8%22.70%		81.9%2.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	17.4%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.0%<0.01%		70.0%0.04%	30.2%0.76%		83.3%<0.01%	51.3%0.15%	30.6%1.27%	21.1%3.77%	47.8%0.18%	65.6%0.12%	37.6%0.33%	50.6%0.08%	32.1%0.86%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.0%<0.01%	30.0%0.04%		23.7%0.43%		50.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.08%	23.3%0.74%	15.2%2.08%	38.5%0.11%	44.1%0.06%	32.7%0.17%	56.2%0.03%	26.4%0.49%
Denver Broncos	75.0%<0.01%	69.8%0.76%	76.3%0.43%		83.3%0.02%	62.5%<0.01%	59.9%0.40%	50.5%4.63%	41.0%7.42%	72.9%0.33%	82.5%0.26%	63.2%2.31%	76.4%0.20%	59.3%3.48%
Houston Oilers				16.7%0.02%			0.0%<0.01%	22.2%0.02%	2.8%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		16.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%				5.0%0.02%	12.1%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		11.1%<0.01%		18.2%0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	100.0%<0.01%	48.7%0.15%	71.4%0.08%	40.1%0.40%	100.0%<0.01%			40.5%0.77%	28.8%1.44%	61.3%0.06%	77.5%0.04%	52.1%0.46%	62.5%0.03%	45.3%0.67%
Los Angeles Raiders	82.4%0.02%	69.4%1.27%	76.7%0.74%	49.5%4.63%	77.8%0.02%	95.0%0.02%	59.5%0.77%		39.3%16.32%	71.8%0.83%	82.0%0.60%	61.1%3.88%	75.2%0.44%	55.8%7.09%
Miami Dolphins	82.6%0.02%	78.9%3.77%	84.8%2.08%	59.0%7.42%	97.2%0.04%	87.9%0.03%	71.2%1.44%	60.7%16.32%		76.8%3.04%	83.3%2.04%	71.7%11.63%	81.5%0.87%	67.1%13.34%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.18%	61.5%0.11%	27.1%0.33%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	38.7%0.06%	28.2%0.83%	23.2%3.04%		62.5%0.07%	43.9%0.65%	52.9%0.03%	33.8%0.52%
New York Jets	100.0%<0.01%	34.4%0.12%	55.9%0.06%	17.5%0.26%	100.0%<0.01%		22.5%0.04%	18.0%0.60%	16.7%2.04%	37.5%0.07%		30.1%0.38%	44.4%0.04%	19.8%0.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.0%<0.01%	62.4%0.33%	67.3%0.17%	36.8%2.31%		88.9%<0.01%	47.9%0.46%	38.9%3.88%	28.3%11.63%	56.1%0.65%	69.9%0.38%		66.0%0.21%	45.1%2.77%
San Diego Chargers		49.4%0.08%	43.8%0.03%	23.6%0.20%	100.0%<0.01%		37.5%0.03%	24.8%0.44%	18.5%0.87%	47.1%0.03%	55.6%0.04%	34.0%0.21%		35.4%0.33%
Seattle Seahawks	80.0%<0.01%	67.9%0.86%	73.6%0.49%	40.7%3.48%	83.3%<0.01%	81.8%0.01%	54.7%0.67%	44.2%7.09%	32.9%13.34%	66.2%0.52%	80.2%0.42%	54.9%2.77%	64.6%0.33%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		18.0%0.06%	29.4%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%	19.4%0.04%	16.7%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	8.9%0.47%	14.3%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%	11.0%0.13%
Chicago Bears	82.0%0.06%		51.2%1.02%	75.3%0.09%	44.1%0.82%	51.1%1.03%	85.7%<0.01%	69.1%0.15%	52.7%0.54%	61.5%0.16%	22.1%13.78%	43.0%1.03%	66.7%0.07%	38.0%3.70%
Dallas Cowboys	70.6%0.03%	48.8%1.02%		65.4%0.10%	45.4%0.57%	42.8%0.37%	77.8%0.02%	58.4%0.08%	58.8%0.34%	65.9%0.09%	19.9%6.70%	45.7%0.58%	70.3%0.06%	36.9%2.84%
Detroit Lions	75.0%<0.01%	24.7%0.09%	34.6%0.10%		21.4%0.04%	30.0%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	41.5%0.04%	37.5%<0.01%	9.6%1.27%	24.8%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	18.0%0.34%
Green Bay Packers	80.6%0.04%	55.9%0.82%	54.6%0.57%	78.6%0.04%		54.6%0.55%	100.0%<0.01%	65.6%0.09%	60.8%0.34%	67.4%0.09%	24.0%7.05%	48.6%0.52%	74.2%0.03%	42.8%2.02%
Los Angeles Rams	83.3%0.02%	48.9%1.03%	57.2%0.37%	70.0%0.10%	45.4%0.55%		89.5%0.02%	63.8%0.06%	54.6%0.19%	65.8%0.07%	24.5%8.31%	48.6%0.31%	69.0%0.07%	36.6%1.54%
Minnesota Vikings	0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	22.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	10.5%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	5.3%0.22%	6.2%0.02%		6.8%0.07%
New Orleans Saints	71.4%<0.01%	30.9%0.15%	41.6%0.08%	50.0%0.02%	34.4%0.09%	36.2%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%		59.3%0.03%	53.8%0.01%	14.9%1.28%	16.7%0.05%	40.0%0.01%	23.0%0.27%
New York Giants	81.8%0.01%	47.3%0.54%	41.2%0.34%	58.5%0.04%	39.2%0.34%	45.4%0.19%	66.7%<0.01%	40.7%0.03%		65.3%0.05%	18.3%3.02%	35.8%0.28%	51.4%0.04%	35.8%1.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	66.7%<0.01%	38.5%0.16%	34.1%0.09%	62.5%<0.01%	32.6%0.09%	34.2%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	46.2%0.01%	34.7%0.05%		11.1%1.03%	34.3%0.07%	69.2%0.01%	23.3%0.39%
San Francisco 49ers	91.1%0.47%	77.9%13.78%	80.1%6.70%	90.4%1.27%	76.0%7.05%	75.5%8.31%	94.7%0.22%	85.1%1.28%	81.7%3.02%	88.9%1.03%		74.2%5.28%	90.1%0.85%	68.3%24.49%
St. Louis Cardinals	85.7%0.03%	57.0%1.03%	54.3%0.58%	75.2%0.12%	51.4%0.52%	51.4%0.31%	93.8%0.02%	83.3%0.05%	64.2%0.28%	65.7%0.07%	25.8%5.28%		71.4%0.08%	45.3%2.65%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	62.5%<0.01%	33.3%0.07%	29.7%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	25.8%0.03%	31.0%0.07%		60.0%0.01%	48.6%0.04%	30.8%0.01%	9.9%0.85%	28.6%0.08%		28.1%0.22%
Washington Redskins	89.0%0.13%	62.0%3.70%	63.1%2.84%	82.0%0.34%	57.2%2.02%	63.4%1.54%	93.2%0.07%	77.0%0.27%	64.2%1.39%	76.7%0.39%	31.7%24.49%	54.7%2.65%	71.9%0.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills		0.0%<0.01%									0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		39.1%0.14%	42.0%0.10%	30.0%0.01%	31.0%0.08%	54.3%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	52.4%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	23.0%1.20%	33.3%0.09%	57.1%<0.01%	33.9%0.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.0%<0.01%	36.2%0.06%	41.0%0.04%	25.0%<0.01%	27.9%0.04%	42.4%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	14.5%0.49%	33.3%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	30.5%0.15%
Denver Broncos	80.0%0.01%	66.8%0.71%	66.1%0.42%	81.0%0.02%	56.7%0.47%	60.8%0.50%	100.0%<0.01%	67.6%0.04%	59.9%0.19%	81.0%0.04%	41.7%5.87%	58.7%0.45%	88.6%0.03%	56.9%1.88%
Houston Oilers			0.0%<0.01%								16.7%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	83.3%<0.01%	60.3%0.14%	60.0%0.06%	57.1%<0.01%	52.0%0.07%	56.2%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	70.0%0.01%	51.9%0.03%	80.0%<0.01%	32.5%0.93%	52.5%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%	36.2%0.28%
Los Angeles Raiders	88.2%0.02%	60.0%1.30%	64.8%0.74%	85.7%0.08%	57.4%0.82%	59.1%0.74%	83.3%<0.01%	72.8%0.08%	62.7%0.35%	69.6%0.08%	37.9%10.17%	55.8%0.81%	70.6%0.05%	51.3%3.16%
Miami Dolphins	93.0%0.04%	68.5%2.91%	71.8%1.69%	90.1%0.16%	64.0%1.79%	64.7%1.68%	100.0%0.01%	83.1%0.18%	70.3%0.83%	83.8%0.17%	44.6%23.33%	62.8%1.85%	74.1%0.12%	58.4%7.39%
New England Patriots	66.7%<0.01%	42.1%0.13%	44.8%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%	38.0%0.07%	37.3%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	77.8%<0.01%	38.2%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	22.4%1.03%	52.6%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%	34.7%0.29%
New York Jets	25.0%<0.01%	23.4%0.05%	35.6%0.04%		34.3%0.03%	21.7%0.02%		40.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	15.2%0.47%	26.1%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	23.2%0.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.9%<0.01%	52.3%0.59%	51.9%0.32%	75.9%0.03%	49.4%0.36%	54.3%0.34%	50.0%<0.01%	63.3%0.03%	60.3%0.13%	61.1%0.04%	30.9%4.52%	45.1%0.38%	59.1%0.02%	44.6%1.46%
San Diego Chargers		36.4%0.06%	54.2%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	11.1%0.03%	38.1%0.02%		25.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	22.1%0.32%	34.6%0.03%		31.0%0.12%
Seattle Seahawks	70.0%0.01%	55.4%0.89%	56.2%0.52%	62.1%0.03%	49.6%0.52%	51.8%0.54%	100.0%<0.01%	70.3%0.06%	60.4%0.22%	84.3%0.05%	33.6%7.07%	50.1%0.54%	74.3%0.03%	47.1%2.20%
Atlanta Falcons																	100.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%			16.7%<0.01%	11.8%0.02%	7.0%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	57.1%<0.01%		30.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears															100.0%<0.01%	60.9%0.14%	63.8%0.06%	33.2%0.71%		100.0%<0.01%	39.7%0.14%	40.0%1.30%	31.5%2.91%	57.9%0.13%	76.6%0.05%	47.7%0.59%	63.6%0.06%	44.6%0.89%
Dallas Cowboys																58.0%0.10%	59.0%0.04%	33.9%0.42%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.06%	35.2%0.74%	28.2%1.69%	55.2%0.06%	64.4%0.04%	48.1%0.32%	45.8%0.02%	43.8%0.52%
Detroit Lions																70.0%0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.02%			42.9%<0.01%	14.3%0.08%	9.9%0.16%	66.7%<0.01%		24.1%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	37.9%0.03%
Green Bay Packers																69.0%0.08%	72.1%0.04%	43.3%0.47%		100.0%<0.01%	48.0%0.07%	42.6%0.82%	36.0%1.79%	62.0%0.07%	65.7%0.03%	50.6%0.36%	88.9%0.03%	50.4%0.52%
Los Angeles Rams																45.7%0.07%	57.6%0.03%	39.2%0.50%			43.8%0.06%	40.9%0.74%	35.3%1.68%	62.7%0.05%	78.3%0.02%	45.7%0.34%	61.9%0.02%	48.2%0.54%
Minnesota Vikings																0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints																50.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	32.4%0.04%			30.0%0.01%	27.2%0.08%	16.9%0.18%	22.2%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	36.7%0.03%	75.0%<0.01%	29.7%0.06%
New York Giants																47.6%0.04%	68.8%0.02%	40.1%0.19%			48.1%0.03%	37.3%0.35%	29.7%0.83%	61.8%0.03%	63.6%0.01%	39.7%0.13%	69.2%0.01%	39.6%0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles																33.3%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.04%			20.0%<0.01%	30.4%0.08%	16.2%0.17%	33.3%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	38.9%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	15.7%0.05%
San Francisco 49ers															100.0%<0.01%	77.0%1.20%	85.5%0.49%	58.3%5.87%	83.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	67.5%0.93%	62.1%10.17%	55.4%23.33%	77.6%1.03%	84.8%0.47%	69.1%4.52%	77.9%0.32%	66.4%7.07%
St. Louis Cardinals															50.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.09%	66.7%0.05%	41.3%0.45%		100.0%<0.01%	47.5%0.06%	44.2%0.81%	37.2%1.85%	47.4%0.06%	73.9%0.02%	54.9%0.38%	65.4%0.03%	49.9%0.54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																42.9%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	11.4%0.03%			66.7%<0.01%	29.4%0.05%	25.9%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	40.9%0.02%		25.7%0.03%
Washington Redskins															100.0%<0.01%	66.1%0.37%	69.5%0.15%	43.1%1.88%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	63.8%0.28%	48.7%3.16%	41.6%7.39%	65.3%0.29%	76.8%0.15%	55.4%1.46%	69.0%0.12%	52.9%2.20%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	82.25%	61.16%	35.73%	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	65.19%	43.70%	22.46%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	71.48%	30.66%	14.24%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	100.00%	66.95%	22.83%	10.26%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Raiders	49.08%	18.52%	9.18%	4.63%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	28.52%	9.30%	3.43%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	50.92%	16.29%	7.15%	3.20%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	100.00%	22.31%	7.67%	2.76%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams	64.27%	22.09%	5.99%	2.42%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	35.73%	6.40%	2.35%	0.87%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Raiders	Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Raiders		49.1%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks	50.9%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams		64.3%100.00%
New York Giants	35.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos				71.5%100.00%
Los Angeles Raiders			37.7%49.08%
Miami Dolphins		62.3%49.08%			68.0%50.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	28.5%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks			32.0%50.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				17.7%64.27%	30.7%35.73%
Los Angeles Rams					34.4%64.27%
New York Giants				17.9%35.73%
San Francisco 49ers	82.3%64.27%		82.1%35.73%
Washington Redskins	69.3%35.73%	65.6%64.27%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		53.3%13.24%	35.7%46.60%		59.7%11.64%
Los Angeles Raiders	46.7%13.24%			56.9%5.28%
Miami Dolphins	64.3%46.60%			74.0%18.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers		43.1%5.28%	26.0%18.59%		47.2%4.65%
Seattle Seahawks	40.3%11.64%			52.8%4.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears		54.7%3.92%	57.3%1.95%	21.0%9.01%	33.9%7.43%
Los Angeles Rams	45.3%3.92%			23.2%18.16%
New York Giants	42.7%1.95%				34.1%4.45%
San Francisco 49ers	79.0%9.01%	76.8%18.16%			72.8%55.08%
Washington Redskins	66.1%7.43%		65.9%4.45%	27.2%55.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos	62.2%2.33%	57.1%1.77%	61.1%0.69%	40.3%18.89%	53.7%6.98%
Los Angeles Raiders	68.5%0.71%	60.9%0.57%	67.1%0.21%	43.6%5.62%	58.1%2.06%
Miami Dolphins	67.4%3.30%	64.4%2.63%	66.6%1.06%	44.9%26.69%	58.3%10.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	53.1%0.76%	47.2%0.61%	51.6%0.22%	30.6%5.63%	43.2%2.09%
Seattle Seahawks	61.0%0.57%	56.8%0.41%	59.1%0.17%	38.0%4.32%	52.2%1.67%
Chicago Bears						37.8%2.33%	31.5%0.71%	32.6%3.30%	46.9%0.76%	39.0%0.57%
Los Angeles Rams						42.9%1.77%	39.1%0.57%	35.6%2.63%	52.8%0.61%	43.2%0.41%
New York Giants						38.9%0.69%	32.9%0.21%	33.4%1.06%	48.4%0.22%	40.9%0.17%
San Francisco 49ers						59.7%18.89%	56.4%5.62%	55.1%26.69%	69.4%5.63%	62.0%4.32%
Washington Redskins						46.3%6.98%	41.9%2.06%	41.7%10.02%	56.8%2.09%	47.8%1.67%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 35.73% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

64.34%

Win Prob

82.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

65.54%

Win Prob

72.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

41.12%

Win Prob

55.05%

Miami Dolphins 22.46% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

53.12%

Win Prob

68.01%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

68.51%

Win Prob

64.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.41%

Win Prob

44.95%

Denver Broncos 14.24% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

54.32%

Win Prob

35.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.45%

Win Prob

40.29%

Washington Redskins 10.26% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

63.01%

Win Prob

65.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

65.68%

Win Prob

27.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

40.72%

Win Prob

41.67%

Los Angeles Raiders 4.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.08%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

67.30%

Win Prob

46.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.00%

Win Prob

43.64%

Pittsburgh Steelers 3.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

51.95%

Win Prob

26.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

50.19%

Win Prob

30.57%

Seattle Seahawks 3.20% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.92%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

65.66%

Win Prob

40.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

51.34%

Win Prob

37.97%

Chicago Bears 2.76% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

50.86%

Win Prob

17.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

32.85%

Win Prob

33.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

38.95%

Win Prob

32.61%

Los Angeles Rams 2.42% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

70.33%

Win Prob

23.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

38.69%

Win Prob

35.62%

New York Giants 0.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

17.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

64.55%

Win Prob

34.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

40.83%

Win Prob

33.40%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1984-09-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-28	1491.78	1478.47	43.81%	55.67%	+26.51	1-0
1984-09-09	Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1518.29	1506.83	59.15%	40.34%	-17.24	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1501.05	1418.91	53.68%	45.81%	-23.92	1-2
1984-09-23	Houston Oilers	W 42-10	1477.13	1344.89	74.33%	25.27%	+24.10	2-2
1984-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 5-14	1501.23	1627.33	25.94%	73.65%	-13.12	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1488.11	1530.52	36.15%	63.37%	+15.08	3-3
1984-10-14	New York Giants	L 7-19	1503.19	1441.26	65.93%	33.60%	-38.42	3-4
1984-10-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1464.77	1552.70	44.98%	54.50%	-28.37	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-35	1436.40	1507.83	32.40%	67.14%	-27.32	3-6
1984-11-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1409.08	1596.35	19.78%	79.87%	-12.02	3-7
1984-11-11	New Orleans Saints	L 13-17	1397.06	1413.58	55.22%	44.27%	-18.60	3-8
1984-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-23	1378.46	1380.81	57.22%	42.27%	-38.54	3-9
1984-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-35	1339.92	1428.96	30.23%	69.33%	-23.36	3-10
1984-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-35	1316.56	1747.03	10.27%	89.51%	-7.33	3-11
1984-12-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-23	1309.23	1349.03	36.50%	63.02%	-25.37	3-12
1984-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-10	1283.86	1467.91	32.00%	67.54%	+45.45	4-12
1984-09-02	New England Patriots	L 17-21	1472.26	1493.87	54.49%	44.99%	-18.36	0-1
1984-09-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-37	1453.90	1493.60	36.51%	63.01%	-33.72	0-2
1984-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1420.18	1634.47	28.35%	71.22%	-9.56	0-3
1984-09-23	New York Jets	L 26-28	1410.62	1532.51	40.21%	59.29%	-9.59	0-4
1984-09-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-31	1401.03	1417.03	39.72%	59.78%	-25.06	0-5
1984-10-07	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1375.97	1414.39	52.09%	47.40%	-27.74	0-6
1984-10-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 28-31	1348.23	1578.70	16.14%	83.56%	-4.71	0-7
1984-10-21	Denver Broncos	L 7-37	1343.52	1583.38	25.47%	74.12%	-23.52	0-8
1984-10-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-38	1320.00	1738.08	6.15%	93.71%	-5.76	0-9
1984-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1314.24	1385.78	47.33%	52.16%	-13.81	0-10
1984-11-11	@ New England Patriots	L 10-38	1300.43	1526.24	16.51%	83.19%	-14.72	0-11
1984-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 14-3	1285.71	1550.19	22.88%	76.74%	+42.80	1-11
1984-11-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-41	1328.51	1593.91	13.61%	86.13%	-11.91	1-12
1984-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-15	1316.60	1329.47	55.74%	43.75%	+18.07	2-12
1984-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 17-21	1334.67	1425.62	29.99%	69.56%	-10.12	2-13
1984-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-52	1324.55	1482.90	22.54%	77.08%	-21.16	2-14
1984-09-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-14	1489.86	1432.48	65.34%	34.19%	+25.79	1-0
1984-09-09	Denver Broncos	W 27-0	1515.65	1485.97	61.66%	37.85%	+33.16	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 9-7	1548.81	1481.57	51.54%	47.94%	+11.43	3-0
1984-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-38	1560.24	1544.31	44.18%	55.30%	-40.11	3-1
1984-09-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-23	1520.13	1567.73	50.77%	48.71%	-25.66	3-2
1984-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1494.47	1503.66	56.26%	43.23%	+26.28	4-2
1984-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-38	1520.75	1528.93	40.80%	58.70%	-28.36	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 44-9	1492.39	1417.77	52.60%	46.88%	+46.74	5-3
1984-10-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-7	1539.13	1403.51	74.70%	24.90%	+12.60	6-3
1984-11-04	Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-6	1551.73	1653.65	43.00%	56.49%	+31.54	7-3
1984-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-29	1583.27	1554.70	45.99%	53.50%	-31.00	7-4
1984-11-18	Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1552.27	1409.32	75.48%	24.12%	+5.75	8-4
1984-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-3	1558.02	1363.71	68.81%	30.74%	+28.87	9-4
1984-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-20	1586.89	1483.50	56.70%	42.80%	-34.42	9-5
1984-12-09	Green Bay Packers	L 14-20	1552.47	1545.78	58.49%	41.01%	-24.12	9-6
1984-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-13	1528.35	1394.40	60.95%	38.56%	+26.81	10-6
1984-09-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1516.58	1471.88	48.30%	51.19%	-14.10	0-1
1984-09-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-27	1502.48	1530.27	53.61%	45.87%	-20.19	0-2
1984-09-16	@ New York Jets	L 23-43	1482.29	1503.05	39.07%	60.44%	-29.46	0-3
1984-09-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-24	1452.83	1468.47	55.35%	44.14%	-29.47	0-4
1984-10-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-38	1423.36	1500.08	31.74%	67.81%	-24.52	0-5
1984-10-07	Houston Oilers	W 13-3	1398.84	1296.25	70.95%	28.61%	+15.25	1-5
1984-10-14	@ New England Patriots	L 14-20	1414.09	1526.89	27.43%	72.15%	-11.33	1-6
1984-10-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 12-9	1402.76	1410.95	56.40%	43.09%	+12.58	2-6
1984-10-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-13	1415.34	1268.22	62.73%	36.78%	+26.32	3-6
1984-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-23	1441.66	1697.91	14.24%	85.49%	-5.87	3-7
1984-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-20	1435.79	1545.69	41.88%	57.61%	+13.72	4-7
1984-11-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-26	1449.51	1673.41	27.24%	72.33%	-20.55	4-8
1984-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-14	1428.96	1339.92	69.33%	30.23%	+23.36	5-8
1984-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1452.32	1436.96	44.10%	55.38%	+16.15	6-8
1984-12-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1468.47	1411.72	50.03%	49.45%	+14.43	7-8
1984-12-16	Buffalo Bills	W 52-21	1482.90	1324.55	77.08%	22.54%	+21.16	8-8
1984-09-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-33	1491.97	1518.73	38.25%	61.26%	-37.05	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1454.92	1477.94	38.76%	60.75%	-11.32	0-2
1984-09-16	Denver Broncos	L 14-24	1443.60	1452.80	56.26%	43.23%	-29.95	0-3
1984-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1413.65	1531.33	40.80%	58.70%	+31.25	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1444.90	1500.70	34.39%	65.13%	-11.60	1-4
1984-10-07	New England Patriots	L 16-17	1433.30	1519.26	45.26%	54.22%	-7.63	1-5
1984-10-14	New York Jets	L 20-24	1425.67	1523.01	43.65%	55.84%	-14.72	1-6
1984-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-12	1410.95	1402.76	43.09%	56.40%	-12.58	1-7
1984-10-28	New Orleans Saints	L 14-16	1398.37	1431.37	52.87%	46.62%	-12.59	1-8
1984-11-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1385.78	1314.24	52.16%	47.33%	+13.81	2-8
1984-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-41	1399.59	1703.79	19.11%	80.55%	-18.78	2-9
1984-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1380.81	1378.46	42.27%	57.22%	+38.54	3-9
1984-11-25	Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1419.35	1287.75	74.26%	25.34%	+17.61	4-9
1984-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1436.96	1452.32	55.38%	44.10%	-16.15	4-10
1984-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1420.81	1530.86	27.74%	71.83%	-8.10	4-11
1984-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-20	1412.71	1285.59	60.01%	39.49%	+17.61	5-11
1984-09-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1556.18	1500.02	49.95%	49.54%	+22.08	1-0
1984-09-09	@ New York Giants	L 7-28	1578.26	1472.65	57.01%	42.48%	-43.98	1-1
1984-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1534.28	1465.03	66.86%	32.67%	+13.49	2-1
1984-09-23	Green Bay Packers	W 20-6	1547.77	1470.14	67.92%	31.62%	+19.96	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1567.73	1520.13	48.71%	50.77%	+25.66	4-1
1984-10-07	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-31	1593.39	1489.25	71.14%	28.43%	-39.69	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-34	1553.70	1644.99	29.95%	69.60%	-22.59	4-3
1984-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1531.11	1440.13	69.56%	29.99%	+8.76	5-3
1984-10-28	Indianapolis Colts	W 22-3	1539.87	1403.20	74.81%	24.79%	+18.22	6-3
1984-11-04	New York Giants	L 7-19	1558.09	1509.11	64.24%	35.28%	-37.45	6-4
1984-11-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-17	1520.64	1586.07	33.16%	66.38%	+29.55	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-14	1550.19	1285.71	76.74%	22.88%	-42.79	7-5
1984-11-22	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1507.40	1573.53	48.10%	51.38%	+14.99	8-5
1984-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-10	1522.39	1474.41	48.77%	50.71%	+34.17	9-5
1984-12-09	Washington Redskins	L 28-30	1556.56	1619.84	48.51%	50.97%	-11.56	9-6
1984-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1545.00	1708.92	21.99%	77.64%	-9.81	9-7
1984-09-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1471.88	1516.58	51.19%	48.30%	+14.09	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1485.97	1515.65	37.85%	61.66%	-33.17	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-14	1452.80	1443.60	43.23%	56.26%	+29.96	2-1
1984-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-0	1482.76	1539.31	49.48%	50.00%	+38.60	3-1
1984-09-30	Los Angeles Raiders	W 16-13	1521.36	1644.87	39.99%	59.51%	+17.35	4-1
1984-10-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1538.71	1481.35	50.12%	49.36%	+38.11	5-1
1984-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 17-14	1576.82	1417.67	77.16%	22.46%	+6.56	6-1
1984-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-7	1583.38	1343.52	74.12%	25.47%	+23.52	7-1
1984-10-28	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 22-19	1606.90	1673.02	33.07%	66.46%	+19.37	8-1
1984-11-04	New England Patriots	W 26-19	1626.27	1539.87	69.01%	30.54%	+13.63	9-1
1984-11-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1639.90	1500.69	61.66%	37.85%	+11.06	10-1
1984-11-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-21	1650.96	1373.60	86.92%	12.82%	+9.89	11-1
1984-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1660.85	1693.96	52.85%	46.63%	-15.42	11-2
1984-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-16	1645.43	1450.66	68.87%	30.68%	-20.07	11-3
1984-12-09	San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1625.36	1517.92	71.53%	28.05%	+8.19	12-3
1984-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1633.55	1653.23	39.21%	60.29%	+41.85	13-3
1984-09-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1521.97	1561.64	51.91%	47.57%	-15.14	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1506.83	1518.29	40.34%	59.15%	+17.25	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-21	1524.08	1394.63	60.33%	39.17%	-20.31	1-2
1984-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-29	1503.77	1442.83	65.80%	33.73%	-11.07	1-3
1984-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1492.70	1515.14	38.83%	60.67%	-11.35	1-4
1984-10-07	Denver Broncos	L 7-28	1481.35	1538.71	49.36%	50.12%	-38.11	1-5
1984-10-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-7	1443.24	1434.59	58.76%	40.73%	+16.82	2-5
1984-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-14	1460.06	1415.72	48.25%	51.24%	+12.21	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-41	1472.27	1397.28	52.65%	46.83%	-50.17	3-6
1984-11-04	Philadelphia Eagles	T 23-23	1422.10	1454.79	52.91%	46.57%	-0.26	3-6
1984-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1421.84	1608.37	19.85%	79.80%	-12.52	3-7
1984-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-16	1409.32	1552.27	24.12%	75.48%	-5.75	3-8
1984-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1403.57	1551.12	36.73%	62.79%	+18.30	4-8
1984-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-38	1421.87	1709.38	12.19%	87.57%	-9.40	4-9
1984-12-10	Los Angeles Raiders	L 3-24	1412.47	1671.95	23.39%	76.22%	-18.07	4-10
1984-12-16	Chicago Bears	L 13-30	1394.40	1528.35	38.56%	60.95%	-26.81	4-11
1984-09-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-23	1496.81	1500.77	57.00%	42.50%	+7.16	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-28	1503.97	1603.34	28.99%	70.57%	-22.40	1-1
1984-09-16	Chicago Bears	L 7-9	1481.57	1548.81	47.94%	51.54%	-11.43	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-20	1470.14	1547.77	31.62%	67.92%	-19.95	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-30	1450.19	1405.62	48.28%	51.21%	-14.09	1-4
1984-10-07	San Diego Chargers	L 28-34	1436.10	1526.49	44.63%	54.85%	-18.43	1-5
1984-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1417.67	1576.82	22.46%	77.16%	-6.56	1-6
1984-10-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1411.11	1583.41	33.49%	66.04%	-13.83	1-7
1984-10-28	Detroit Lions	W 41-9	1397.28	1472.27	46.83%	52.65%	+50.16	2-7
1984-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1447.44	1443.96	42.43%	57.06%	+30.38	3-7
1984-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-17	1477.82	1402.02	67.69%	31.85%	+28.43	4-7
1984-11-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-6	1506.25	1585.70	46.19%	53.29%	+44.87	5-7
1984-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1551.12	1403.57	62.79%	36.73%	-18.30	5-8
1984-12-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1532.82	1361.99	78.32%	21.32%	+12.96	6-8
1984-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1545.78	1552.47	41.01%	58.49%	+24.12	7-8
1984-12-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-14	1569.90	1314.52	75.79%	23.82%	+19.67	8-8
1984-09-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-24	1414.78	1585.36	33.71%	65.82%	-17.98	0-1
1984-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-35	1396.80	1407.77	56.01%	43.48%	-35.28	0-2
1984-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1361.52	1506.50	23.91%	75.70%	-16.63	0-3
1984-09-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-42	1344.89	1477.13	25.27%	74.33%	-24.10	0-4
1984-09-30	New Orleans Saints	L 10-27	1320.79	1479.12	35.30%	64.22%	-24.54	0-5
1984-10-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-13	1296.25	1398.84	28.61%	70.95%	-15.26	0-6
1984-10-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-28	1280.99	1708.91	5.84%	94.03%	-4.16	0-7
1984-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-34	1276.83	1643.41	14.18%	85.55%	-8.61	0-8
1984-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-31	1268.22	1415.34	36.78%	62.73%	-26.31	0-9
1984-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-35	1241.91	1535.14	11.84%	87.92%	-10.55	0-10
1984-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1231.36	1482.91	14.57%	85.15%	+14.31	1-10
1984-11-18	New York Jets	W 31-20	1245.67	1497.78	24.16%	75.45%	+42.08	2-10
1984-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-27	1287.75	1419.35	25.34%	74.26%	-17.62	2-11
1984-12-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1270.13	1553.76	21.00%	78.64%	+22.90	3-11
1984-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-27	1293.03	1562.74	13.32%	86.42%	-7.44	3-12
1984-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1285.59	1412.71	39.49%	60.01%	-17.62	3-13
1984-09-02	New York Jets	L 14-23	1431.52	1505.57	46.97%	52.52%	-23.75	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-21	1407.77	1396.80	43.48%	56.01%	+35.29	1-1
1984-09-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 33-34	1443.06	1527.32	45.51%	53.98%	-7.67	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-44	1435.39	1644.03	17.91%	81.77%	-18.36	1-3
1984-09-30	Buffalo Bills	W 31-17	1417.03	1401.03	59.78%	39.72%	+25.06	2-3
1984-10-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-35	1442.09	1615.20	33.39%	66.15%	-29.79	2-4
1984-10-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-16	1412.30	1442.14	37.83%	61.68%	-19.14	2-5
1984-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-16	1393.16	1517.87	39.82%	59.68%	+10.04	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-22	1403.20	1539.87	24.79%	74.81%	-18.22	3-6
1984-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 10-38	1384.98	1458.78	47.00%	52.48%	-41.91	3-7
1984-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 9-5	1343.07	1524.45	20.32%	79.33%	+26.67	4-7
1984-11-18	New England Patriots	L 17-50	1369.74	1540.95	33.63%	65.90%	-32.58	4-8
1984-11-25	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-21	1337.16	1624.35	12.20%	87.55%	-7.69	4-9
1984-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 15-21	1329.47	1316.60	43.75%	55.74%	-18.06	4-10
1984-12-09	Miami Dolphins	L 17-35	1311.41	1699.84	12.72%	87.03%	-9.09	4-11
1984-12-16	@ New England Patriots	L 10-16	1302.32	1482.68	20.42%	79.23%	-8.43	4-12
1984-09-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-27	1498.30	1516.23	39.45%	60.05%	+31.97	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-22	1530.27	1502.48	45.87%	53.61%	+20.19	2-0
1984-09-16	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-22	1550.46	1625.74	46.79%	52.69%	-11.15	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-21	1539.31	1482.76	50.00%	49.48%	-38.61	2-2
1984-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-6	1500.70	1444.90	65.13%	34.39%	+11.60	3-2
1984-10-07	New York Jets	L 16-17	1512.30	1513.34	57.41%	42.09%	-9.66	3-3
1984-10-14	San Diego Chargers	W 31-13	1502.64	1544.91	51.53%	47.95%	+34.28	4-3
1984-10-21	@ New York Jets	L 7-28	1536.92	1537.72	41.83%	57.67%	-32.32	4-4
1984-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-20	1504.60	1371.02	74.47%	25.12%	+8.48	5-4
1984-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-45	1513.08	1632.62	26.67%	72.92%	-30.17	5-5
1984-11-11	Houston Oilers	L 16-17	1482.91	1231.36	85.15%	14.57%	-14.31	5-6
1984-11-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-17	1468.60	1611.48	24.13%	75.47%	-12.86	5-7
1984-11-25	@ New York Giants	L 27-28	1455.74	1545.55	30.13%	69.42%	-5.08	5-8
1984-12-02	Denver Broncos	W 16-13	1450.66	1645.43	30.68%	68.87%	+20.06	6-8
1984-12-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1470.72	1718.78	24.59%	75.01%	+65.55	7-8
1984-12-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-21	1536.27	1509.72	45.70%	53.79%	+41.51	8-8
1984-09-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-14	1585.36	1414.78	65.82%	33.71%	+17.98	1-0
1984-09-09	Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1603.34	1503.97	70.57%	28.99%	+22.40	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-20	1625.74	1550.46	52.69%	46.79%	+11.15	3-0
1984-09-24	San Diego Chargers	W 33-30	1636.89	1523.12	72.26%	27.32%	+7.98	4-0
1984-09-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1644.87	1521.36	59.51%	39.99%	-17.35	4-1
1984-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-14	1627.52	1603.03	60.95%	38.56%	+24.33	5-1
1984-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1651.85	1420.41	83.64%	16.06%	+4.69	6-1
1984-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 44-37	1656.54	1510.64	62.57%	36.95%	+16.48	7-1
1984-10-28	Denver Broncos	L 19-22	1673.02	1606.90	66.46%	33.07%	-19.37	7-2
1984-11-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-17	1653.65	1551.73	56.49%	43.00%	-31.54	7-3
1984-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-17	1622.11	1662.79	36.38%	63.14%	-10.63	7-4
1984-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1611.48	1468.60	75.47%	24.13%	+12.87	8-4
1984-11-25	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-7	1624.35	1337.16	87.55%	12.20%	+7.68	9-4
1984-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 45-34	1632.03	1739.76	28.01%	71.56%	+39.92	10-4
1984-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-3	1671.95	1412.47	76.22%	23.39%	+18.08	11-4
1984-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1690.03	1538.96	76.33%	23.28%	-31.44	11-5
1984-09-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1500.02	1556.18	49.54%	49.95%	-22.08	0-1
1984-09-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-17	1477.94	1454.92	60.75%	38.76%	+11.32	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1489.26	1510.54	38.99%	60.51%	-20.79	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1468.47	1452.83	44.14%	55.35%	+29.47	2-2
1984-09-30	New York Giants	W 33-12	1497.94	1499.62	57.32%	42.18%	+32.58	3-2
1984-10-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1530.52	1488.11	63.37%	36.15%	-15.08	3-3
1984-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-10	1515.44	1477.39	47.34%	52.14%	+37.26	4-3
1984-10-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1552.70	1464.77	54.50%	44.98%	+28.37	5-3
1984-10-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-33	1581.07	1652.02	47.41%	52.07%	-45.90	5-4
1984-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-13	1535.17	1605.60	32.52%	67.01%	+19.53	6-4
1984-11-11	Chicago Bears	W 29-13	1554.70	1583.27	53.50%	45.99%	+31.00	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-31	1585.70	1506.25	53.29%	46.19%	-44.87	7-5
1984-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-33	1540.83	1367.61	66.16%	33.37%	+5.62	8-5
1984-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 34-21	1546.45	1428.01	72.79%	26.79%	+16.29	9-5
1984-12-09	Houston Oilers	W 27-16	1562.74	1293.03	86.42%	13.32%	+7.44	10-5
1984-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-19	1570.18	1760.67	19.49%	80.17%	-5.69	10-6
1984-09-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-17	1568.12	1597.47	37.90%	61.61%	+43.99	1-0
1984-09-09	New England Patriots	W 28-7	1612.11	1512.22	70.64%	28.93%	+22.36	2-0
1984-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1634.47	1420.18	71.22%	28.35%	+9.56	3-0
1984-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 44-7	1644.03	1435.39	81.77%	17.91%	+18.35	4-0
1984-09-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 36-28	1662.38	1506.22	63.94%	35.58%	+16.98	5-0
1984-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-7	1679.36	1524.61	63.75%	35.77%	+29.55	6-0
1984-10-14	Houston Oilers	W 28-10	1708.91	1280.99	94.03%	5.84%	+4.16	7-0
1984-10-21	@ New England Patriots	W 44-24	1713.07	1538.22	66.37%	33.16%	+25.01	8-0
1984-10-28	Buffalo Bills	W 38-7	1738.08	1320.00	93.71%	6.15%	+5.76	9-0
1984-11-04	@ New York Jets	W 31-17	1743.84	1543.38	69.56%	29.99%	+18.93	10-0
1984-11-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1762.77	1455.05	88.78%	11.00%	+1.85	11-0
1984-11-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-34	1764.62	1489.64	77.79%	21.84%	-32.04	11-1
1984-11-26	New York Jets	W 28-17	1732.58	1455.71	86.89%	12.85%	+7.18	12-1
1984-12-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 34-45	1739.76	1632.03	71.56%	28.01%	-39.92	12-2
1984-12-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-17	1699.84	1311.41	87.03%	12.72%	+9.08	13-2
1984-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-21	1708.92	1545.00	77.64%	21.99%	+9.81	14-2
1984-09-02	San Diego Chargers	L 13-42	1480.44	1478.34	57.85%	41.65%	-52.45	0-1
1984-09-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-19	1427.99	1455.95	38.09%	61.42%	-9.08	0-2
1984-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1418.91	1501.05	45.81%	53.68%	+23.92	1-2
1984-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-28	1442.83	1503.77	33.73%	65.80%	+11.07	2-2
1984-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-20	1453.90	1584.42	39.03%	60.48%	-18.61	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-35	1435.29	1419.71	44.13%	55.35%	-14.88	2-4
1984-10-14	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-23	1420.41	1651.85	16.06%	83.64%	-4.69	2-5
1984-10-21	Detroit Lions	L 14-16	1415.72	1460.06	51.24%	48.25%	-12.21	2-6
1984-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1403.51	1539.13	24.90%	74.70%	-12.59	2-7
1984-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1390.92	1362.55	61.48%	38.03%	+11.10	3-7
1984-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-45	1402.02	1477.82	31.85%	67.69%	-28.42	3-8
1984-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-42	1373.60	1650.96	12.82%	86.92%	-9.89	3-9
1984-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 3-34	1363.71	1558.02	30.74%	68.81%	-28.86	3-10
1984-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1334.85	1605.82	22.23%	77.39%	-14.03	3-11
1984-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-51	1320.82	1754.36	5.66%	94.21%	-6.30	3-12
1984-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 14-38	1314.52	1569.90	23.82%	75.79%	-19.68	3-13
1984-09-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1493.87	1472.26	44.99%	54.49%	+18.35	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-28	1512.22	1612.11	28.93%	70.64%	-22.35	1-1
1984-09-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-23	1489.87	1580.07	44.66%	54.83%	+35.75	2-1
1984-09-23	Washington Redskins	L 10-26	1525.62	1563.83	52.12%	47.36%	-35.11	2-2
1984-09-30	@ New York Jets	W 28-21	1490.51	1542.10	34.94%	64.58%	+28.75	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1519.26	1433.30	54.22%	45.26%	+7.63	4-2
1984-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1526.89	1414.09	72.15%	27.43%	+11.33	5-2
1984-10-21	Miami Dolphins	L 24-44	1538.22	1713.07	33.16%	66.37%	-25.01	5-3
1984-10-28	New York Jets	W 30-20	1513.21	1570.04	49.44%	50.04%	+26.66	6-3
1984-11-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-26	1539.87	1626.27	30.54%	69.01%	-13.63	6-4
1984-11-11	Buffalo Bills	W 38-10	1526.24	1300.43	83.19%	16.51%	+14.71	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 50-17	1540.95	1369.74	65.90%	33.63%	+32.58	8-4
1984-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1573.53	1507.40	51.38%	48.10%	-14.99	8-5
1984-12-02	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-33	1558.54	1543.22	59.69%	39.81%	-48.18	8-6
1984-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1510.36	1440.24	51.95%	47.53%	-27.68	8-7
1984-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1482.68	1302.32	79.23%	20.42%	+8.43	9-7
1984-09-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-36	1478.47	1491.78	55.67%	43.81%	-26.52	0-1
1984-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-13	1451.95	1406.70	63.75%	35.77%	+12.07	1-1
1984-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-30	1464.02	1592.77	25.65%	73.95%	-13.68	1-2
1984-09-23	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-24	1450.34	1534.99	45.45%	54.03%	+28.78	2-2
1984-09-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1479.12	1320.79	64.22%	35.30%	+24.54	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-20	1503.66	1494.47	43.23%	56.26%	-26.27	3-3
1984-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-28	1477.39	1515.44	52.14%	47.34%	-37.26	3-4
1984-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1440.13	1531.11	29.99%	69.56%	-8.76	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-14	1431.37	1398.37	46.62%	52.87%	+12.59	4-5
1984-11-04	Green Bay Packers	L 13-23	1443.96	1447.44	57.06%	42.43%	-30.38	4-6
1984-11-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1413.58	1397.06	44.27%	55.22%	+18.59	5-6
1984-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1432.17	1531.97	43.30%	56.19%	+16.39	6-6
1984-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-35	1448.56	1726.48	21.55%	78.08%	-20.55	6-7
1984-12-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-34	1428.01	1546.45	26.79%	72.79%	-16.29	6-8
1984-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-24	1411.72	1468.47	49.45%	50.03%	-14.43	6-9
1984-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 10-3	1397.29	1552.50	22.86%	76.76%	+34.15	7-9
1984-09-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-27	1465.65	1462.96	57.93%	41.56%	+7.00	1-0
1984-09-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-7	1472.65	1578.26	42.48%	57.01%	+43.99	2-0
1984-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-30	1516.64	1537.49	39.05%	60.45%	-26.34	2-1
1984-09-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1490.30	1414.94	67.64%	31.91%	+9.32	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-33	1499.62	1497.94	42.18%	57.32%	-32.58	3-2
1984-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-31	1467.04	1640.45	33.35%	66.19%	-25.78	3-3
1984-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-7	1441.26	1503.19	33.60%	65.93%	+38.43	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-24	1479.69	1461.28	44.54%	54.95%	-28.09	4-4
1984-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 37-13	1451.60	1653.85	29.78%	69.78%	+57.51	5-4
1984-11-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-7	1509.11	1558.09	35.28%	64.24%	+37.44	6-4
1984-11-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1546.55	1351.45	68.91%	30.64%	-20.07	6-5
1984-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1526.48	1556.52	53.29%	46.20%	+19.07	7-5
1984-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-27	1545.55	1455.74	69.42%	30.13%	+5.08	8-5
1984-12-02	@ New York Jets	W 20-10	1550.63	1448.53	56.51%	42.98%	+22.91	9-5
1984-12-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-31	1573.54	1591.41	39.46%	60.04%	-21.04	9-6
1984-12-15	New Orleans Saints	L 3-10	1552.50	1397.29	76.76%	22.86%	-34.15	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-14	1505.57	1431.52	52.52%	46.97%	+23.74	1-0
1984-09-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1529.31	1484.27	63.72%	35.80%	-26.26	1-1
1984-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 43-23	1503.05	1482.29	60.44%	39.07%	+29.46	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-26	1532.51	1410.62	59.29%	40.21%	+9.59	3-1
1984-09-30	New England Patriots	L 21-28	1542.10	1490.51	64.58%	34.94%	-28.76	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1513.34	1512.30	42.09%	57.41%	+9.67	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-20	1523.01	1425.67	55.84%	43.65%	+14.71	5-2
1984-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1537.72	1536.92	57.67%	41.83%	+32.32	6-2
1984-10-28	@ New England Patriots	L 20-30	1570.04	1513.21	50.04%	49.44%	-26.66	6-3
1984-11-04	Miami Dolphins	L 17-31	1543.38	1743.84	29.99%	69.56%	-18.93	6-4
1984-11-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 5-9	1524.45	1343.07	79.33%	20.32%	-26.67	6-5
1984-11-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-31	1497.78	1245.67	75.45%	24.16%	-42.07	6-6
1984-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-28	1455.71	1732.58	12.85%	86.89%	-7.18	6-7
1984-12-02	New York Giants	L 10-20	1448.53	1550.63	42.98%	56.51%	-22.91	6-8
1984-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1425.62	1334.67	69.56%	29.99%	+10.12	7-8
1984-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-41	1435.74	1374.40	50.69%	48.79%	-38.19	7-9
1984-09-02	@ New York Giants	L 27-28	1462.96	1465.65	41.56%	57.93%	-7.01	0-1
1984-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1455.95	1427.99	61.42%	38.09%	+9.08	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-23	1465.03	1534.28	32.67%	66.86%	-13.49	1-2
1984-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-21	1451.54	1606.45	35.75%	63.77%	-20.89	1-3
1984-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1430.65	1598.94	21.56%	78.07%	-16.26	1-4
1984-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-17	1414.39	1375.97	47.40%	52.09%	+27.75	2-4
1984-10-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-7	1442.14	1412.30	61.68%	37.83%	+19.14	3-4
1984-10-21	New York Giants	W 24-10	1461.28	1479.69	54.95%	44.54%	+28.08	4-4
1984-10-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-34	1489.36	1571.02	45.88%	53.61%	-34.57	4-5
1984-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	T 23-23	1454.79	1422.10	46.57%	52.91%	+0.26	4-5
1984-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1455.05	1762.77	11.00%	88.78%	-1.85	4-6
1984-11-18	Washington Redskins	W 16-10	1453.20	1620.88	34.08%	65.45%	+26.98	5-6
1984-11-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-17	1480.18	1537.45	34.20%	65.33%	-5.77	5-7
1984-12-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-26	1474.41	1522.39	50.71%	48.77%	-34.17	5-8
1984-12-09	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1440.24	1510.36	47.53%	51.95%	+27.67	6-8
1984-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-26	1467.91	1283.86	67.54%	32.00%	-45.45	6-9
1984-09-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-37	1516.23	1498.30	60.05%	39.45%	-31.96	0-1
1984-09-06	@ New York Jets	W 23-17	1484.27	1529.31	35.80%	63.72%	+26.27	1-1
1984-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1510.54	1489.26	60.51%	38.99%	+20.79	2-1
1984-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-20	1531.33	1413.65	58.70%	40.80%	-31.25	2-2
1984-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-17	1500.08	1423.36	67.81%	31.74%	+24.53	3-2
1984-10-07	Miami Dolphins	L 7-31	1524.61	1679.36	35.77%	63.75%	-29.55	3-3
1984-10-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1495.06	1666.23	21.29%	78.35%	+22.81	4-3
1984-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-17	1517.87	1393.16	59.68%	39.82%	-10.04	4-4
1984-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-10	1507.83	1436.40	67.14%	32.40%	+27.31	5-4
1984-11-04	Houston Oilers	W 35-7	1535.14	1241.91	87.92%	11.84%	+10.55	6-4
1984-11-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-22	1545.69	1435.79	57.61%	41.88%	-13.72	6-5
1984-11-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1531.97	1432.17	56.19%	43.30%	-16.39	6-6
1984-11-25	San Diego Chargers	W 52-24	1515.58	1521.67	56.70%	42.79%	+38.18	7-6
1984-12-02	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-23	1553.76	1270.13	78.64%	21.00%	-22.90	7-7
1984-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1530.86	1420.81	71.83%	27.74%	+8.10	8-7
1984-12-16	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-7	1538.96	1690.03	23.28%	76.33%	+31.44	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-13	1478.34	1480.44	41.65%	57.85%	+52.44	1-0
1984-09-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-31	1530.78	1555.78	38.49%	61.02%	-24.28	1-1
1984-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 31-14	1506.50	1361.52	75.70%	23.91%	+16.62	2-1
1984-09-24	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 30-33	1523.12	1636.89	27.32%	72.26%	-7.98	2-2
1984-09-30	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1515.14	1492.70	60.67%	38.83%	+11.35	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-28	1526.49	1436.10	54.85%	44.63%	+18.42	4-2
1984-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1544.91	1502.64	47.95%	51.53%	-34.27	4-3
1984-10-21	Los Angeles Raiders	L 37-44	1510.64	1656.54	36.95%	62.57%	-16.49	4-4
1984-10-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-24	1494.15	1597.25	42.84%	56.66%	-35.37	4-5
1984-11-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-10	1458.78	1384.98	52.48%	47.00%	+41.91	5-5
1984-11-11	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1500.69	1639.90	37.85%	61.66%	-11.05	5-6
1984-11-18	Miami Dolphins	W 34-28	1489.64	1764.62	21.84%	77.79%	+32.03	6-6
1984-11-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-52	1521.67	1515.58	42.79%	56.70%	-38.17	6-7
1984-12-03	Chicago Bears	W 20-7	1483.50	1586.89	42.80%	56.70%	+34.42	7-7
1984-12-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1517.92	1625.36	28.05%	71.53%	-8.20	7-8
1984-12-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-42	1509.72	1536.27	53.79%	45.70%	-41.51	7-9
1984-09-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-27	1561.64	1521.97	47.57%	51.91%	+15.14	1-0
1984-09-10	Washington Redskins	W 37-31	1576.78	1553.48	60.79%	38.72%	+15.99	2-0
1984-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 30-20	1592.77	1464.02	73.95%	25.65%	+13.68	3-0
1984-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-9	1606.45	1451.54	63.77%	35.75%	+20.88	4-0
1984-09-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-5	1627.33	1501.23	73.65%	25.94%	+13.12	5-0
1984-10-08	@ New York Giants	W 31-10	1640.45	1467.04	66.19%	33.35%	+25.78	6-0
1984-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1666.23	1495.06	78.35%	21.29%	-22.82	6-1
1984-10-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-21	1643.41	1276.83	85.55%	14.18%	+8.61	7-1
1984-10-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 33-0	1652.02	1581.07	52.07%	47.41%	+45.89	8-1
1984-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-17	1697.91	1441.66	85.49%	14.24%	+5.88	9-1
1984-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-7	1703.79	1399.59	80.55%	19.11%	+18.78	10-1
1984-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-17	1722.57	1371.52	91.02%	8.79%	+3.91	11-1
1984-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-3	1726.48	1448.56	78.08%	21.55%	+20.55	12-1
1984-12-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 35-17	1747.03	1316.56	89.51%	10.27%	+7.33	13-1
1984-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 51-7	1754.36	1320.82	94.21%	5.66%	+6.31	14-1
1984-12-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1760.67	1570.18	80.17%	19.49%	+5.69	15-1
1984-09-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-0	1518.73	1491.97	61.26%	38.25%	+37.05	1-0
1984-09-09	San Diego Chargers	W 31-17	1555.78	1530.78	61.02%	38.49%	+24.29	2-0
1984-09-16	@ New England Patriots	L 23-38	1580.07	1489.87	54.83%	44.66%	-35.76	2-1
1984-09-23	Chicago Bears	W 38-9	1544.31	1560.24	55.30%	44.18%	+40.11	3-1
1984-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-12	1584.42	1453.90	60.48%	39.03%	+18.61	4-1
1984-10-07	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-28	1603.03	1627.52	38.56%	60.95%	-24.33	4-2
1984-10-14	Buffalo Bills	W 31-28	1578.70	1348.23	83.56%	16.14%	+4.71	5-2
1984-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-24	1583.41	1411.11	66.04%	33.49%	+13.84	6-2
1984-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1597.25	1494.15	56.66%	42.84%	+35.37	7-2
1984-11-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-0	1632.62	1513.08	72.92%	26.67%	+30.17	8-2
1984-11-12	Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-14	1662.79	1622.11	63.14%	36.38%	+10.62	9-2
1984-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-6	1673.41	1449.51	72.33%	27.24%	+20.55	10-2
1984-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1693.96	1660.85	46.63%	52.85%	+15.42	11-2
1984-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 38-17	1709.38	1421.87	87.57%	12.19%	+9.40	12-2
1984-12-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-34	1718.78	1470.72	75.01%	24.59%	-65.55	12-3
1984-12-15	Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1653.23	1633.55	60.29%	39.21%	-41.84	12-4
1984-09-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-24	1500.77	1496.81	42.50%	57.00%	-7.17	0-1
1984-09-09	Buffalo Bills	W 37-7	1493.60	1453.90	63.01%	36.51%	+33.72	1-1
1984-09-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-33	1527.32	1443.06	53.98%	45.51%	+7.67	2-1
1984-09-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-34	1534.99	1450.34	54.03%	45.45%	-28.77	2-2
1984-09-30	Miami Dolphins	L 28-36	1506.22	1662.38	35.58%	63.94%	-16.97	2-3
1984-10-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-20	1489.25	1593.39	28.43%	71.14%	+39.68	3-3
1984-10-14	Chicago Bears	W 38-21	1528.93	1520.75	58.70%	40.80%	+28.36	4-3
1984-10-21	Washington Redskins	W 26-24	1557.29	1667.58	41.83%	57.67%	+13.73	5-3
1984-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1571.02	1489.36	53.61%	45.88%	+34.58	6-3
1984-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1605.60	1535.17	67.01%	32.52%	-19.53	6-4
1984-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1586.07	1520.64	66.38%	33.16%	-29.55	6-5
1984-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 10-16	1556.52	1526.48	46.20%	53.29%	-19.07	6-6
1984-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-16	1537.45	1480.18	65.33%	34.20%	+5.77	7-6
1984-12-02	@ New England Patriots	W 33-10	1543.22	1558.54	39.81%	59.69%	+48.19	8-6
1984-12-09	New York Giants	W 31-21	1591.41	1573.54	60.04%	39.46%	+21.04	9-6
1984-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 27-29	1612.45	1631.40	39.31%	60.19%	-9.38	9-7
1984-09-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-34	1432.48	1489.86	34.19%	65.34%	-25.78	0-1
1984-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-17	1406.70	1451.95	35.77%	63.75%	-12.07	0-2
1984-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 21-17	1394.63	1524.08	39.17%	60.33%	+20.31	1-2
1984-09-23	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1414.94	1490.30	31.91%	67.64%	-9.32	1-3
1984-09-30	Green Bay Packers	W 30-27	1405.62	1450.19	51.21%	48.28%	+14.09	2-3
1984-10-07	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-31	1419.71	1435.29	55.35%	44.13%	+14.88	3-3
1984-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1434.59	1443.24	40.73%	58.76%	-16.82	3-4
1984-10-21	Chicago Bears	L 9-44	1417.77	1492.39	46.88%	52.60%	-46.75	3-5
1984-10-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-24	1371.02	1504.60	25.12%	74.47%	-8.47	3-6
1984-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1362.55	1390.92	38.03%	61.48%	-11.10	3-7
1984-11-11	New York Giants	W 20-17	1351.45	1546.55	30.64%	68.91%	+20.07	4-7
1984-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1371.52	1722.57	8.79%	91.02%	-3.91	4-8
1984-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 33-34	1367.61	1540.83	33.37%	66.16%	-5.62	4-9
1984-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1361.99	1532.82	21.32%	78.32%	-12.96	4-10
1984-12-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-6	1349.03	1309.23	63.02%	36.50%	+25.37	5-10
1984-12-16	New York Jets	W 41-21	1374.40	1435.74	48.79%	50.69%	+38.19	6-10
1984-09-02	Miami Dolphins	L 17-35	1597.47	1568.12	61.61%	37.90%	-43.99	0-1
1984-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-37	1553.48	1576.78	38.72%	60.79%	-15.99	0-2
1984-09-16	New York Giants	W 30-14	1537.49	1516.64	60.45%	39.05%	+26.34	1-2
1984-09-23	@ New England Patriots	W 26-10	1563.83	1525.62	47.36%	52.12%	+35.11	2-2
1984-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1598.94	1430.65	78.07%	21.56%	+16.26	3-2
1984-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 35-7	1615.20	1442.09	66.15%	33.39%	+29.79	4-2
1984-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-14	1644.99	1553.70	69.60%	29.95%	+22.59	5-2
1984-10-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-26	1667.58	1557.29	57.67%	41.83%	-13.73	5-3
1984-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 13-37	1653.85	1451.60	69.78%	29.78%	-57.50	5-4
1984-11-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1596.35	1409.08	79.87%	19.78%	+12.02	6-4
1984-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 28-14	1608.37	1421.84	79.80%	19.85%	+12.51	7-4
1984-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-16	1620.88	1453.20	65.45%	34.08%	-26.97	7-5
1984-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 41-14	1593.91	1328.51	86.13%	13.61%	+11.91	8-5
1984-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-17	1605.82	1334.85	77.39%	22.23%	+14.02	9-5
1984-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-28	1619.84	1556.56	50.97%	48.51%	+11.56	10-5
1984-12-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 29-27	1631.40	1612.45	60.19%	39.31%	+9.37	11-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1984-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-19	1555.16	1640.77	30.83%	69.17%	+23.18	1-0
1985-01-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-23	1578.34	1775.42	19.01%	80.99%	-15.27	1-1
1984-12-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1675.40	1570.40	71.49%	28.51%	-31.71	0-1
1984-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-13	1658.59	1611.39	48.91%	51.09%	-20.08	0-1
1984-12-23	New York Giants	L 13-16	1564.49	1518.35	64.12%	35.88%	-18.61	0-1
1984-12-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-10	1718.73	1631.47	69.37%	30.63%	+23.53	1-0
1985-01-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-28	1742.26	1602.10	75.43%	24.57%	+16.97	2-0
1985-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-38	1759.23	1790.70	45.48%	54.52%	-35.75	2-1
1984-12-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-13	1518.35	1564.49	35.88%	64.12%	+18.62	1-0
1984-12-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-21	1536.97	1766.36	16.31%	83.69%	-9.07	1-1
1984-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-17	1570.40	1675.40	28.51%	71.49%	+31.70	1-0
1985-01-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1602.10	1742.26	24.57%	75.43%	-16.97	1-1
1984-12-29	New York Giants	W 21-10	1766.36	1536.97	83.69%	16.31%	+9.06	1-0
1985-01-06	Chicago Bears	W 23-0	1775.42	1578.34	80.99%	19.01%	+15.28	2-0
1985-01-20	Miami Dolphins	W 38-16	1790.70	1759.23	54.52%	45.48%	+35.76	3-0
1984-12-22	Los Angeles Raiders	W 13-7	1611.39	1658.59	51.09%	48.91%	+20.08	1-0
1984-12-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-31	1631.47	1718.73	30.63%	69.37%	-23.53	1-1
1984-12-30	Chicago Bears	L 19-23	1640.77	1555.16	69.17%	30.83%	-23.18	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1984-11-11	14.57%	Houston Oilers	1231.36	17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1482.91	16
2	1984-11-11	20.32%	Indianapolis Colts	1343.07	9	@ New York Jets	1524.45	5
3	1984-12-02	21.00%	@ Houston Oilers	1270.13	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1553.76	20
4	1984-10-14	21.29%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1495.06	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1666.23	17
5	1984-11-18	21.84%	@ San Diego Chargers	1489.64	34	Miami Dolphins	1764.62	28
6	1984-12-15	22.86%	New Orleans Saints	1397.29	10	@ New York Giants	1552.50	3
7	1984-11-18	22.88%	@ Buffalo Bills	1285.71	14	Dallas Cowboys	1550.19	3
8	1984-12-16	23.28%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1538.96	13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1690.03	7
9	1984-11-18	24.16%	@ Houston Oilers	1245.67	31	New York Jets	1497.78	20
10	1984-12-09	24.59%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1470.72	34	Seattle Seahawks	1718.78	7
11	1984-12-02	28.01%	Los Angeles Raiders	1632.03	45	@ Miami Dolphins	1739.76	34
12	1984-10-07	28.43%	St. Louis Cardinals	1489.25	31	@ Dallas Cowboys	1593.39	20
13	1984-12-30 *	28.51%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1570.40	24	@ Denver Broncos	1675.40	17
14	1984-10-28	29.78%	@ New York Giants	1451.60	37	Washington Redskins	1653.85	13
15	1984-11-11	30.64%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1351.45	20	New York Giants	1546.55	17
16	1984-12-02	30.68%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1450.66	16	Denver Broncos	1645.43	13
17	1984-12-30 *	30.83%	Chicago Bears	1555.16	23	@ Washington Redskins	1640.77	19
18	1984-12-16	32.00%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1283.86	26	Philadelphia Eagles	1467.91	10
19	1984-11-04	32.52%	Los Angeles Rams	1535.17	16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1605.60	13
20	1984-10-28	33.07%	Denver Broncos	1606.90	22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1673.02	19
21	1984-11-11	33.16%	Dallas Cowboys	1520.64	24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1586.07	17
22	1984-10-14	33.60%	New York Giants	1441.26	19	@ Atlanta Falcons	1503.19	7
23	1984-09-23	33.73%	Minnesota Vikings	1442.83	29	@ Detroit Lions	1503.77	28
24	1984-11-18	34.08%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1453.20	16	Washington Redskins	1620.88	10
25	1984-09-30	34.94%	New England Patriots	1490.51	28	@ New York Jets	1542.10	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1984-12-09	65.55	@ Kansas City Chiefs	34	1470.72	24.59%	Seattle Seahawks	7	1718.78	75.01%
2	1984-10-28	57.51	@ New York Giants	37	1451.60	29.78%	Washington Redskins	13	1653.85	69.78%
3	1984-09-02	52.45	San Diego Chargers	42	1478.34	41.65%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1480.44	57.85%
4	1984-10-28	50.17	@ Green Bay Packers	41	1397.28	46.83%	Detroit Lions	9	1472.27	52.65%
5	1984-12-02	48.19	St. Louis Cardinals	33	1543.22	39.81%	@ New England Patriots	10	1558.54	59.69%
6	1984-10-21	46.75	Chicago Bears	44	1492.39	52.60%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	1417.77	46.88%
7	1984-10-28	45.90	San Francisco 49ers	33	1652.02	52.07%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1581.07	47.41%
8	1984-12-16	45.45	@ Atlanta Falcons	26	1283.86	32.00%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1467.91	67.54%
9	1984-11-18	44.87	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1506.25	46.19%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1585.70	53.29%
10	1984-09-02	43.99	Miami Dolphins	35	1568.12	37.90%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1597.47	61.61%
11	1984-09-09	43.99	@ New York Giants	28	1472.65	42.48%	Dallas Cowboys	7	1578.26	57.01%
12	1984-11-18	42.80	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1285.71	22.88%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1550.19	76.74%
13	1984-11-18	42.08	@ Houston Oilers	31	1245.67	24.16%	New York Jets	20	1497.78	75.45%
14	1984-11-04	41.91	San Diego Chargers	38	1458.78	52.48%	@ Indianapolis Colts	10	1384.98	47.00%
15	1984-12-15	41.85	Denver Broncos	31	1633.55	39.21%	@ Seattle Seahawks	14	1653.23	60.29%
16	1984-12-16	41.51	Kansas City Chiefs	42	1536.27	45.70%	@ San Diego Chargers	21	1509.72	53.79%
17	1984-09-23	40.11	@ Seattle Seahawks	38	1544.31	55.30%	Chicago Bears	9	1560.24	44.18%
18	1984-12-02	39.92	Los Angeles Raiders	45	1632.03	28.01%	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1739.76	71.56%
19	1984-10-07	39.69	St. Louis Cardinals	31	1489.25	28.43%	@ Dallas Cowboys	20	1593.39	71.14%
20	1984-09-23	38.61	@ Denver Broncos	21	1482.76	49.48%	Kansas City Chiefs	0	1539.31	50.00%
21	1984-11-18	38.54	Cleveland Browns (1st)	23	1380.81	42.27%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1378.46	57.22%
22	1984-10-14	38.43	New York Giants	19	1441.26	33.60%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1503.19	65.93%
23	1984-12-16	38.19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	41	1374.40	48.79%	New York Jets	21	1435.74	50.69%
24	1984-11-25	38.18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	52	1515.58	56.70%	San Diego Chargers	24	1521.67	42.79%
25	1984-10-07	38.11	Denver Broncos	28	1538.71	50.12%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1481.35	49.36%