1983 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Los Angeles Raiders

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1980

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1982

Biggest Overachiever

Washington Redskins

3.43 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.57 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4.51 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.51 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	6	.625	-	355	303	+52	9.92	+0.08
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	7	.562	1	356	342	+14	7.75	+1.25
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	3	346	302	+44	8.63	-1.63
4	Houston Oilers	2	14	.125	8	288	460	-172	5.37	-3.37

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	4	.750	-	389	250	+139	10.15	+1.85
2	New England Patriots	8	8	.500	4	274	289	-15	7.41	+0.59
3	Buffalo Bills	8	8	.500	4	283	351	-68	7.90	+0.10
4	Baltimore Colts	7	9	.438	5	264	354	-90	5.88	+1.12
5	New York Jets	7	9	.438	5	313	331	-18	8.94	-1.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	12	4	.750	-	442	338	+104	9.52	+2.48
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	403	397	+6	7.24	+1.76
3	Denver Broncos Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	302	327	-25	7.77	+1.23
4	San Diego Chargers	6	10	.375	6	358	462	-104	7.55	-1.55
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6	10	.375	6	386	367	+19	7.73	-1.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	9	7	.562	-	347	286	+61	8.50	+0.50
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	1	429	439	-10	8.63	-0.63
3	Chicago Bears	8	8	.500	1	311	301	+10	7.48	+0.52
4	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	.500	1	316	348	-32	7.94	+0.06
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	.125	7	241	380	-139	6.51	-4.51

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	14	2	0	.875	-	541	332	+209	10.57	+3.43
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	12	4	0	.750	2	479	360	+119	10.38	+1.62
3	St. Louis Cardinals	8	7	1	.531	5.5	374	428	-54	6.17	+2.33
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	11	0	.312	9	233	322	-89	7.76	-2.76
5	New York Giants	3	12	1	.219	10.5	267	347	-80	6.80	-3.30

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	6	.625	-	432	293	+139	9.51	+0.49
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	361	344	+17	7.51	+1.49
3	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	2	319	337	-18	7.32	+0.68
4	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	3	370	389	-19	7.17	-0.17

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 31

Denver Broncos 7

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 27

Miami Dolphins 20

Dec 31

Los Angeles Raiders 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 10

Jan 1

Conference Championship

Los Angeles Raiders 30

Seattle Seahawks 14

Jan 8

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 24

Dallas Cowboys 17

Dec 26

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 24

Detroit Lions 23

Dec 31

Washington Redskins 51

Los Angeles Rams 7

Jan 1

Conference Championship

Washington Redskins 24

San Francisco 49ers 21

Jan 8

Super Bowl

Los Angeles Raiders 38

Washington Redskins 9

Jan 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1703	14	10.57	+3.43	99.00%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1637	12	10.15	+1.85	90.05%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1625	12	10.38	+1.62	87.80%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1605	12	9.52	+2.48	94.59%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1602	10	9.51	+0.49	69.86%	1	6	8	9	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1548	10	9.92	+0.08	61.98%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1541	9	8.50	+0.50	70.42%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1526	7	8.63	-1.63	29.02%	0	5	7	9	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1514	9	7.24	+1.76	87.95%	0	4	6	7	9	10	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1509	7	8.94	-1.94	23.56%	0	6	8	9	10	12	16
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1501	8.5	6.17	+2.33	89.28%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1496	6	7.73	-1.73	27.43%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1496	9	7.51	+1.49	85.09%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1494	8	8.63	-0.63	47.99%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1489	8	7.41	+0.59	71.92%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1486	9	7.75	+1.25	82.06%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1484	7	7.17	-0.17	57.84%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1481	8	7.48	+0.52	70.38%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1471	9	7.77	+1.23	81.54%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1466	8	7.94	+0.06	62.18%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1462	6	7.55	-1.55	30.39%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1462	8	7.32	+0.68	73.20%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1455	8	7.90	+0.10	62.91%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1433	5	7.76	-2.76	12.72%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1430	3.5	6.80	-3.30	4.01%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1388	7	5.88	+1.12	81.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1364	2	6.51	-4.51	1.49%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1330	2	5.37	-3.37	5.75%	0	2	4	5	7	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Houston Oilers	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.01%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.22%	0.22%	6.03%
7–13	2.01%	3.12%	4.46%	3.57%	2.23%	0.89%	0.45%	16.74%
14–20	1.34%	4.46%	6.70%	5.13%	3.35%	2.23%	1.79%	25.00%
21–27	1.79%	3.57%	5.13%	7.59%	4.46%	1.79%	0.22%	24.55%
28–34	0.45%	2.23%	3.35%	4.46%	3.12%	0.89%	—	14.51%
35–41	0.22%	0.89%	2.23%	1.79%	0.89%	2.68%	0.45%	9.15%
42+	0.22%	0.45%	1.79%	0.22%	—	0.45%	0.89%	4.02%
Total	6.03%	16.74%	25.00%	24.55%	14.51%	9.15%	4.02%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.83	21.83	+0.00
SD	10.82	10.82	14.51
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.12	24.31	-1.19
SD	8.81	8.76	11.39
CV	0.38	0.36	—
Max	47	41	+17
Min	10	13	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	22.12	-5.62
SD	9.18	9.61	12.43
CV	0.56	0.43	—
Max	34	41	+10
Min	0	7	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	21.94	-4.25
SD	11.35	10.71	15.51
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	38	41	+23
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	56.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	18.81	+0.62
SD	6.81	11.14	11.59
CV	0.35	0.59	—
Max	31	38	+27
Min	7	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.62	18.88	+2.75
SD	12.97	8.34	16.48
CV	0.60	0.44	—
Max	55	38	+41
Min	6	9	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	21.38	+0.88
SD	9.28	12.53	15.73
CV	0.42	0.59	—
Max	41	44	+30
Min	6	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.94	22.50	+7.44
SD	8.70	9.63	15.28
CV	0.29	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+30
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	20.44	-1.56
SD	8.25	11.05	14.11
CV	0.44	0.54	—
Max	38	48	+21
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	17.88	+3.81
SD	11.08	10.71	16.44
CV	0.51	0.60	—
Max	45	38	+42
Min	9	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.81	27.44	-0.62
SD	14.28	10.79	15.49
CV	0.53	0.39	—
Max	55	47	+41
Min	3	9	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.00	28.75	-10.75
SD	9.48	11.02	12.30
CV	0.53	0.38	—
Max	38	55	+10
Min	6	13	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
Total	—	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.12	22.94	+1.19
SD	13.56	12.05	13.71
CV	0.56	0.53	—
Max	48	51	+31
Min	6	10	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.62	21.12	+6.50
SD	7.17	11.62	11.19
CV	0.26	0.55	—
Max	42	38	+32
Min	20	6	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	12.50%	37.50%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.56	21.50	+1.06
SD	9.93	11.39	12.87
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	41	45	+24
Min	7	6	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	6.25%	50.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.31	15.62	+8.69
SD	11.00	9.81	13.48
CV	0.45	0.63	—
Max	38	38	+37
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	37.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	62.50%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	21.75	-2.00
SD	7.59	10.93	11.55
CV	0.38	0.50	—
Max	34	48	+20
Min	2	13	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	—	31.25%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.12	18.06	-0.94
SD	10.67	11.58	16.98
CV	0.62	0.64	—
Max	37	34	+31
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	21.06	-1.12
SD	9.39	8.50	10.71
CV	0.47	0.40	—
Max	34	32	+17
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.69	21.69	-5.00
SD	7.55	12.50	12.93
CV	0.45	0.58	—
Max	34	41	+24
Min	6	0	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.56	20.69	-1.12
SD	10.31	10.05	14.52
CV	0.53	0.49	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.56	20.12	-5.56
SD	7.43	8.38	10.91
CV	0.51	0.42	—
Max	28	37	+5
Min	0	7	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	18.94	+3.25
SD	10.95	10.35	17.25
CV	0.49	0.55	—
Max	44	45	+27
Min	3	3	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	28.88	-6.50
SD	11.24	10.90	14.71
CV	0.50	0.38	—
Max	41	44	+24
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.00	18.31	+8.69
SD	13.53	8.61	13.97
CV	0.50	0.47	—
Max	48	35	+31
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.19	24.81	+0.38
SD	10.39	12.01	11.10
CV	0.41	0.48	—
Max	51	48	+18
Min	10	6	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.38	26.75	-3.38
SD	11.46	12.23	18.53
CV	0.49	0.46	—
Max	44	45	+30
Min	7	6	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	23.75	-8.69
SD	9.66	10.95	12.19
CV	0.64	0.46	—
Max	33	55	+9
Min	0	11	-41

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
Total	—	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	33.81	20.75	+13.06
SD	7.04	10.34	10.66
CV	0.21	0.50	—
Max	47	48	+38
Min	23	7	-1

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.57	+0.3
Allowed	0.19	-0.2
Differential	0.78	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	14	10.57	+3.43
2	Los Angeles Raiders	12	9.52	+2.48
3	St. Louis Cardinals	8.5	6.17	+2.33
4	Miami Dolphins	12	10.15	+1.85
5	Seattle Seahawks	9	7.24	+1.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	6.51	-4.51
2	Houston Oilers	2	5.37	-3.37
3	New York Giants	3.5	6.80	-3.30
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	7.76	-2.76
5	New York Jets	7	8.94	-1.94

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Redskins	9	Oct 23 – Dec 17	1 in 26
2	Dallas Cowboys	7	Sep 5 – Oct 16	1 in 24
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Oct 2 – Nov 13	1 in 21
4	Denver Broncos	4	Oct 9 – Oct 30	1 in 16
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Sep 11 – Sep 25	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	Sep 4 – Oct 30	1 in 190
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 133
3	Houston Oilers	10	Sep 4 – Nov 6	1 in 77
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 20 – Dec 4	1 in 23
5	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 11 – Oct 2	1 in 22

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.33%	27.54%	13.01%	3.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.93%	36.95%	27.24%	8.88%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	14.81%	28.67%	39.65%	16.86%
Houston Oilers	1.92%	6.83%	20.10%	71.15%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	51.75%	25.84%	13.60%	6.64%	2.17%
New York Jets	25.18%	30.66%	22.59%	14.99%	6.58%
Buffalo Bills	12.74%	21.03%	26.80%	24.58%	14.85%
New England Patriots	8.36%	16.52%	24.26%	29.16%	21.70%
Baltimore Colts	1.98%	5.96%	12.74%	24.63%	54.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Raiders	47.63%	23.93%	14.57%	9.00%	4.87%
Denver Broncos	14.72%	20.17%	21.66%	22.12%	21.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.67%	20.33%	21.82%	21.78%	21.40%
San Diego Chargers	12.77%	19.17%	21.53%	23.07%	23.46%
Seattle Seahawks	10.20%	16.40%	20.42%	24.03%	28.94%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Green Bay Packers	31.16%	24.76%	19.24%	14.89%	9.96%
Detroit Lions	28.06%	24.42%	20.87%	15.98%	10.67%
Minnesota Vikings	19.78%	21.43%	21.98%	20.57%	16.24%
Chicago Bears	14.67%	18.32%	21.02%	23.69%	22.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.33%	11.07%	16.89%	24.87%	40.83%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	47.78%	33.78%	12.70%	4.51%	1.23%
Dallas Cowboys	41.75%	35.98%	14.62%	5.81%	1.84%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.40%	15.95%	33.07%	26.92%	17.66%
New York Giants	2.59%	8.73%	23.03%	32.90%	32.75%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.48%	5.56%	16.58%	29.86%	46.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	56.34%	24.44%	12.94%	6.28%
Los Angeles Rams	16.51%	26.94%	28.61%	27.95%
New Orleans Saints	14.27%	24.88%	28.93%	31.92%
Atlanta Falcons	12.88%	23.75%	29.53%	33.85%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	24.54%	17.45%	13.43%	10.41%	8.26%	6.58%	5.37%	4.28%	3.20%	2.39%	1.84%	1.16%	0.74%	0.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.40%	17.57%	14.38%	10.56%	8.86%	7.65%	5.65%	4.44%	3.70%	2.59%	1.77%	1.33%	0.77%	0.33%
Los Angeles Raiders	15.41%	15.17%	13.45%	10.71%	9.25%	7.86%	6.61%	5.55%	4.58%	3.80%	3.05%	2.23%	1.51%	0.81%
New York Jets	10.10%	9.83%	10.16%	10.81%	9.86%	8.83%	8.28%	7.56%	6.44%	5.54%	4.96%	3.49%	2.50%	1.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.72%	8.87%	9.46%	9.97%	9.85%	10.33%	8.77%	7.81%	8.00%	6.24%	4.74%	4.05%	2.71%	1.49%
Buffalo Bills	4.20%	4.98%	6.03%	7.03%	7.77%	8.23%	8.69%	9.06%	8.78%	8.68%	8.60%	7.05%	6.00%	4.90%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.27%	4.63%	5.82%	6.91%	7.90%	8.80%	8.85%	9.70%	10.51%	8.88%	7.83%	7.26%	5.92%	3.73%
Denver Broncos	3.43%	4.88%	5.97%	6.76%	7.43%	7.78%	8.37%	8.35%	8.41%	8.84%	8.40%	8.04%	7.42%	5.91%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.22%	4.71%	5.82%	6.87%	7.45%	7.78%	8.38%	8.67%	8.39%	8.85%	8.69%	8.04%	7.42%	5.71%
San Diego Chargers	2.78%	4.14%	5.13%	6.33%	6.93%	7.40%	8.32%	8.52%	8.38%	9.33%	9.35%	8.77%	8.16%	6.46%
New England Patriots	2.45%	3.36%	4.32%	5.58%	6.32%	6.84%	8.11%	8.64%	9.01%	9.71%	10.21%	9.08%	8.52%	7.87%
Seattle Seahawks	1.90%	3.26%	4.23%	5.21%	6.10%	6.69%	7.49%	8.12%	8.51%	9.61%	9.94%	10.23%	10.03%	8.68%
Baltimore Colts	0.39%	0.71%	1.13%	1.81%	2.33%	2.94%	4.05%	5.11%	6.21%	8.37%	10.53%	13.19%	17.74%	25.48%
Houston Oilers	0.19%	0.46%	0.67%	1.04%	1.69%	2.29%	3.06%	4.18%	5.88%	7.17%	10.09%	16.07%	20.57%	26.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Washington Redskins	31.17%	17.87%	13.37%	11.08%	7.74%	5.62%	4.10%	2.96%	2.14%	1.54%	1.10%	0.72%	0.38%	0.21%
Dallas Cowboys	27.14%	16.82%	13.89%	11.54%	8.41%	6.17%	4.69%	3.57%	2.60%	1.92%	1.42%	0.89%	0.62%	0.32%
San Francisco 49ers	13.26%	16.76%	14.66%	11.29%	9.47%	8.43%	6.41%	5.20%	4.53%	3.29%	2.62%	2.12%	1.33%	0.62%
Green Bay Packers	6.50%	9.95%	10.21%	9.74%	9.90%	8.93%	8.00%	7.58%	6.71%	5.92%	5.37%	4.41%	3.85%	2.93%
Detroit Lions	5.30%	9.02%	9.58%	9.23%	9.84%	9.27%	8.36%	8.02%	7.10%	6.51%	5.66%	4.86%	4.21%	3.04%
Minnesota Vikings	3.43%	6.18%	7.09%	7.50%	8.27%	8.44%	8.51%	8.48%	8.11%	7.92%	7.70%	6.71%	6.25%	5.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.20%	3.80%	5.16%	6.89%	7.14%	7.97%	9.50%	9.27%	9.01%	8.75%	8.24%	7.57%	7.04%	6.45%
Los Angeles Rams	2.26%	4.38%	5.37%	6.51%	7.49%	8.51%	8.37%	8.77%	9.38%	8.85%	8.55%	9.07%	7.45%	5.04%
Chicago Bears	2.04%	4.49%	5.44%	6.15%	7.21%	7.37%	7.88%	8.15%	8.32%	8.76%	8.70%	8.39%	8.85%	8.25%
New Orleans Saints	1.80%	3.64%	4.77%	5.85%	6.99%	8.02%	8.09%	8.50%	9.28%	9.10%	9.12%	9.81%	8.49%	6.55%
Atlanta Falcons	1.52%	3.23%	4.32%	5.38%	6.41%	7.43%	8.05%	8.61%	9.51%	9.30%	9.36%	10.69%	9.27%	6.92%
New York Giants	1.09%	1.50%	2.45%	3.59%	4.19%	5.40%	7.09%	7.86%	8.42%	10.17%	10.82%	11.16%	12.23%	14.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.70%	1.55%	2.32%	3.10%	4.19%	4.96%	5.83%	6.93%	7.67%	8.88%	10.43%	11.47%	14.59%	17.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.56%	0.82%	1.36%	2.16%	2.74%	3.50%	5.13%	6.09%	7.20%	9.09%	10.92%	12.13%	15.43%	22.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Washington Redskins	18.25%	13.51%	10.04%	8.24%	7.18%	6.21%	5.63%	4.84%	3.91%	3.56%	3.10%	2.55%	2.10%	1.97%	1.51%	1.45%	1.16%	1.02%	0.81%	0.72%	0.57%	0.47%	0.39%	0.30%	0.21%	0.14%	0.10%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	16.05%	11.82%	9.63%	7.99%	7.38%	6.31%	5.78%	5.09%	4.31%	3.81%	3.30%	2.84%	2.37%	2.19%	2.02%	1.64%	1.35%	1.17%	1.06%	0.83%	0.79%	0.61%	0.51%	0.38%	0.33%	0.22%	0.15%	0.08%
Miami Dolphins	12.52%	11.61%	9.28%	8.60%	7.06%	6.49%	5.66%	4.98%	4.26%	4.06%	3.61%	3.16%	2.70%	2.42%	2.26%	2.07%	1.62%	1.38%	1.28%	1.14%	0.95%	0.77%	0.64%	0.51%	0.40%	0.29%	0.20%	0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.28%	10.10%	8.79%	8.60%	7.17%	7.10%	5.59%	5.25%	4.51%	4.45%	3.76%	3.60%	2.99%	2.89%	2.36%	2.05%	1.80%	1.77%	1.40%	1.24%	1.01%	0.87%	0.71%	0.60%	0.44%	0.34%	0.20%	0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	7.34%	7.37%	8.09%	7.50%	7.11%	6.63%	5.58%	5.57%	5.01%	4.69%	4.16%	3.97%	3.53%	3.30%	2.72%	2.47%	2.40%	2.31%	1.84%	1.75%	1.39%	1.24%	1.12%	1.02%	0.71%	0.58%	0.40%	0.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	7.60%	7.74%	7.60%	7.46%	6.73%	6.56%	5.52%	5.34%	4.92%	4.61%	4.11%	3.89%	3.50%	3.19%	2.95%	2.65%	2.47%	2.12%	1.93%	1.81%	1.54%	1.43%	1.14%	0.99%	0.81%	0.65%	0.47%	0.28%
New York Jets	4.35%	5.19%	5.18%	5.15%	5.30%	5.42%	5.54%	5.17%	4.92%	4.79%	4.68%	4.52%	4.12%	4.04%	3.77%	3.60%	3.35%	3.06%	2.85%	2.67%	2.49%	2.26%	1.85%	1.68%	1.40%	1.12%	0.90%	0.64%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.25%	4.04%	4.49%	4.54%	4.84%	4.96%	5.03%	4.94%	5.03%	4.94%	4.72%	4.95%	4.48%	4.43%	3.81%	3.86%	3.70%	3.95%	3.15%	3.05%	2.52%	2.56%	2.09%	2.01%	1.53%	1.43%	0.98%	0.71%
Green Bay Packers	3.29%	3.82%	4.65%	4.84%	5.06%	4.87%	4.84%	5.01%	4.90%	4.67%	4.59%	4.41%	4.28%	3.94%	3.92%	3.69%	3.59%	3.26%	3.12%	2.92%	2.82%	2.64%	2.41%	2.16%	2.06%	1.69%	1.50%	1.06%
Detroit Lions	2.57%	3.23%	4.16%	4.46%	4.66%	4.79%	4.59%	4.77%	4.84%	4.81%	4.52%	4.53%	4.39%	4.24%	4.17%	3.91%	3.69%	3.54%	3.49%	3.19%	3.17%	2.66%	2.58%	2.35%	2.25%	1.82%	1.65%	0.99%
Minnesota Vikings	1.51%	2.08%	2.74%	3.08%	3.41%	3.66%	3.63%	3.90%	3.96%	4.16%	4.19%	4.35%	4.11%	4.48%	4.33%	4.28%	4.07%	4.06%	4.11%	4.08%	3.94%	3.79%	3.67%	3.33%	3.36%	2.90%	2.82%	2.00%
Buffalo Bills	1.55%	2.24%	2.48%	2.80%	3.08%	3.18%	3.57%	3.59%	3.93%	4.02%	4.21%	4.22%	4.18%	4.33%	4.34%	4.61%	4.33%	4.38%	4.18%	4.40%	4.11%	4.13%	3.67%	3.48%	3.10%	2.97%	2.69%	2.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.14%	1.88%	2.10%	2.61%	2.78%	3.18%	3.48%	3.59%	3.77%	4.05%	4.20%	4.44%	4.41%	4.53%	4.42%	4.83%	4.69%	5.24%	4.32%	4.37%	3.89%	4.15%	3.70%	3.65%	3.16%	3.06%	2.34%	2.02%
Denver Broncos	1.22%	1.92%	2.29%	2.71%	2.86%	3.13%	3.29%	3.62%	3.72%	3.97%	3.81%	4.17%	4.09%	4.10%	4.33%	4.32%	4.28%	4.23%	4.30%	4.41%	4.21%	4.15%	4.08%	3.79%	3.65%	3.50%	3.27%	2.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.23%	1.71%	2.31%	2.53%	2.82%	3.05%	3.40%	3.49%	3.74%	3.81%	3.97%	4.06%	4.21%	4.20%	4.16%	4.50%	4.30%	4.17%	4.30%	4.41%	4.40%	4.21%	4.05%	3.93%	3.77%	3.50%	3.06%	2.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.30%	1.68%	1.98%	2.21%	2.60%	2.83%	3.37%	3.49%	3.50%	3.87%	4.04%	4.14%	4.36%	4.58%	4.55%	4.85%	4.54%	4.33%	4.47%	4.38%	4.39%	4.00%	4.00%	3.71%	3.84%	3.23%	3.28%	2.48%
Los Angeles Rams	0.97%	1.25%	2.00%	2.23%	2.65%	2.67%	3.13%	3.33%	3.75%	3.63%	3.89%	3.98%	4.36%	4.27%	4.32%	4.26%	4.57%	4.87%	4.37%	4.49%	4.40%	4.48%	4.50%	4.45%	3.96%	3.76%	3.00%	2.44%
San Diego Chargers	1.07%	1.46%	1.98%	2.14%	2.52%	2.67%	3.25%	3.17%	3.47%	3.53%	3.79%	3.96%	4.15%	4.07%	4.21%	4.27%	4.30%	4.29%	4.54%	4.71%	4.45%	4.56%	4.35%	4.42%	4.02%	4.01%	3.45%	3.16%
Chicago Bears	0.78%	1.27%	1.91%	2.34%	2.54%	2.83%	2.92%	3.28%	3.48%	3.55%	3.62%	3.85%	3.91%	4.04%	4.17%	4.12%	4.16%	4.32%	4.58%	4.41%	4.50%	4.34%	4.45%	4.20%	4.52%	4.30%	4.15%	3.45%
New Orleans Saints	0.75%	1.15%	1.57%	1.93%	2.29%	2.38%	2.75%	3.07%	3.37%	3.46%	3.67%	3.92%	3.99%	4.24%	4.08%	4.14%	4.55%	4.82%	4.50%	4.66%	4.66%	4.67%	4.89%	4.78%	4.41%	4.43%	3.71%	3.19%
New England Patriots	0.83%	1.31%	1.61%	1.90%	2.13%	2.40%	2.85%	2.88%	3.14%	3.30%	3.60%	3.59%	4.03%	3.86%	4.33%	4.50%	4.37%	4.48%	4.62%	4.78%	4.91%	4.91%	4.65%	4.44%	4.34%	4.30%	4.17%	3.78%
Atlanta Falcons	0.57%	0.98%	1.40%	1.62%	2.00%	2.21%	2.52%	2.75%	3.16%	3.12%	3.48%	3.66%	4.00%	4.13%	4.11%	4.19%	4.72%	4.84%	4.67%	4.62%	4.75%	4.90%	5.18%	5.37%	4.81%	4.82%	3.88%	3.54%
Seattle Seahawks	0.69%	1.06%	1.46%	1.68%	2.12%	2.19%	2.62%	2.69%	3.02%	3.15%	3.42%	3.44%	3.69%	3.73%	4.14%	4.18%	4.43%	4.25%	4.63%	4.74%	4.98%	4.91%	4.94%	5.04%	4.89%	4.95%	4.66%	4.29%
New York Giants	0.38%	0.58%	0.75%	0.94%	1.22%	1.35%	1.74%	1.84%	2.15%	2.25%	2.79%	2.74%	3.34%	3.49%	4.05%	3.86%	4.30%	4.27%	5.06%	4.93%	5.37%	5.45%	5.81%	5.87%	6.25%	6.26%	6.81%	6.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.24%	0.43%	0.66%	0.77%	1.01%	1.23%	1.46%	1.65%	1.98%	2.12%	2.38%	2.47%	2.90%	3.09%	3.48%	3.53%	3.82%	3.98%	4.58%	4.64%	5.13%	5.42%	5.82%	6.19%	7.30%	7.34%	8.24%	8.12%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.19%	0.29%	0.41%	0.49%	0.66%	0.72%	0.99%	1.17%	1.32%	1.48%	1.86%	1.81%	2.39%	2.57%	3.01%	3.25%	3.64%	3.62%	4.51%	4.60%	5.35%	5.61%	6.08%	6.59%	7.83%	8.10%	10.30%	11.14%
Baltimore Colts	0.07%	0.19%	0.30%	0.40%	0.50%	0.63%	0.77%	0.99%	1.14%	1.26%	1.52%	1.52%	1.96%	2.08%	2.58%	2.72%	3.10%	3.23%	4.03%	4.35%	4.90%	5.45%	6.30%	6.84%	8.04%	9.30%	11.40%	14.42%
Houston Oilers	0.03%	0.10%	0.14%	0.25%	0.30%	0.37%	0.48%	0.56%	0.75%	0.87%	1.04%	1.26%	1.47%	1.62%	1.91%	2.20%	2.70%	3.04%	3.31%	3.70%	4.43%	5.34%	6.40%	7.91%	8.60%	10.97%	12.19%	18.08%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	24.54%	16.56%	10.65%	13.05%	8.94%	26.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.40%	18.35%	17.58%	8.69%	7.88%	27.09%
Los Angeles Raiders	15.41%	16.19%	16.02%	8.14%	8.49%	35.74%
New York Jets	10.10%	8.64%	6.43%	14.04%	10.96%	49.83%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.72%	8.81%	10.40%	9.98%	9.70%	53.40%
Buffalo Bills	4.20%	4.52%	4.02%	8.27%	8.42%	70.58%
Denver Broncos	3.43%	5.07%	6.22%	6.29%	7.31%	71.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.27%	4.77%	6.78%	6.33%	7.77%	71.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.22%	4.97%	6.48%	6.03%	7.34%	71.96%
San Diego Chargers	2.78%	4.39%	5.61%	5.74%	6.70%	74.78%
New England Patriots	2.45%	3.01%	2.89%	6.40%	6.70%	78.54%
Seattle Seahawks	1.90%	3.50%	4.80%	4.45%	5.93%	79.41%
Baltimore Colts	0.39%	0.69%	0.89%	1.82%	2.35%	93.85%
Houston Oilers	0.19%	0.52%	1.22%	0.77%	1.51%	95.80%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	31.17%	12.00%	4.61%	22.69%	10.02%	19.51%
Dallas Cowboys	27.14%	10.48%	4.13%	24.26%	10.91%	23.07%
San Francisco 49ers	13.26%	20.39%	22.68%	4.49%	6.84%	32.33%
Green Bay Packers	6.50%	12.21%	12.44%	5.84%	9.29%	53.72%
Detroit Lions	5.30%	11.08%	11.68%	5.61%	9.19%	57.14%
Minnesota Vikings	3.43%	7.83%	8.51%	4.80%	7.79%	67.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.20%	2.06%	1.13%	9.32%	8.92%	75.36%
Los Angeles Rams	2.26%	5.62%	8.62%	3.93%	6.62%	72.94%
Chicago Bears	2.04%	5.80%	6.84%	3.76%	6.78%	74.78%
New Orleans Saints	1.80%	4.66%	7.81%	3.48%	6.20%	76.05%
Atlanta Falcons	1.52%	4.29%	7.07%	3.14%	5.75%	78.23%
New York Giants	1.09%	0.91%	0.58%	4.46%	4.86%	88.09%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.70%	2.14%	3.49%	1.71%	3.75%	88.20%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.56%	0.53%	0.39%	2.52%	3.08%	92.92%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+6.70%

Clear Edge

53.12%0.45%46.43%

Elo Value

Home Edge

18 Elo

0.054 points per Elo point

023.3050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.71 points

Lean Home

-8+1.26+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.1

Wide Open

124811

Champion Preseason Odds

Los Angeles Raiders, 4th of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

14.7%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.55 · As Expected: 1.55 to 2.13 · Elevated: 2.13 to 2.91 · High Variance: 2.91 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.11 · Close: 5.11 to 6.91 · Off Target: 6.91 to 9.02 · Well Off Target: 9.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.84 · As Expected: 2.84 to 4.73 · More Than Expected: 4.73 to 7.56 · Far More Than Expected: 7.56 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.92 wins

As Expected

01.945

Average Finish Error

Expected

5.18

06.0115

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.00%

Washington Redskins

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

1.49%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 10

As Expected

03.810

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.67

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

60%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

No Contest

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

24%

Mostly Decisive

0%19%100%

Blowouts

Expected

25%

Frequent

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.20

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.01

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.26

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

44%

Upset-Prone

0%40%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Shaky Favorites

0%33%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.08

Borderline

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.03

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.054

Within Noise

00.0930.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	73.15%	73.15%	54.14%	36.80%	24.73%
Miami Dolphins	66.77%	66.77%	43.33%	27.99%	14.48%
Dallas Cowboys	65.70%	65.70%	42.55%	22.09%	12.78%
Los Angeles Raiders	58.02%	58.02%	33.98%	19.53%	9.38%
San Francisco 49ers	62.37%	62.37%	32.63%	16.41%	9.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.14%	65.14%	33.00%	16.05%	6.59%
Cincinnati Bengals	36.90%	36.90%	17.29%	7.85%	2.97%
Detroit Lions	34.64%	34.64%	14.13%	5.91%	2.82%
New York Jets	37.61%	37.61%	17.64%	7.40%	2.76%
Green Bay Packers	36.87%	36.87%	12.87%	4.58%	1.88%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.82%	20.82%	9.01%	3.73%	1.32%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	21.10%	21.10%	8.44%	3.34%	1.14%
Los Angeles Rams	20.72%	20.72%	7.80%	2.76%	1.14%
Seattle Seahawks	15.26%	15.26%	6.77%	2.94%	1.12%
Denver Broncos	20.55%	20.55%	8.14%	3.11%	0.98%
Minnesota Vikings	24.20%	24.20%	7.69%	2.52%	0.94%
New England Patriots	14.40%	14.40%	6.28%	2.46%	0.87%
San Diego Chargers	17.99%	17.99%	6.93%	2.51%	0.82%
Chicago Bears	18.49%	18.49%	6.10%	2.09%	0.82%
Atlanta Falcons	16.25%	16.25%	5.72%	2.00%	0.80%
Buffalo Bills	19.52%	19.52%	7.66%	2.69%	0.80%
New Orleans Saints	17.65%	17.65%	5.84%	1.78%	0.67%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.24%	12.59%	4.81%	1.37%	0.45%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.60%	3.93%	1.91%	0.70%	0.31%
New York Giants	9.31%	5.82%	2.19%	0.60%	0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.62%	7.62%	1.62%	0.38%	0.09%
Baltimore Colts	4.17%	3.40%	1.00%	0.29%	0.07%
Houston Oilers	2.51%	2.51%	0.52%	0.12%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		49.7%0.18%	33.8%0.53%	38.2%0.33%	40.0%0.36%	54.7%0.06%	35.8%0.39%	21.8%0.44%	17.3%0.30%	38.2%0.14%	35.4%0.34%	30.3%0.45%	40.4%0.36%	36.4%0.29%
Buffalo Bills	50.3%0.18%		40.3%2.10%	48.2%1.48%	47.3%1.53%	69.6%0.20%	45.2%1.40%	28.7%1.87%	23.6%1.28%	42.3%0.76%	42.0%1.68%	37.1%1.74%	49.2%1.36%	41.6%1.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.2%0.53%	59.7%2.10%		57.4%0.92%	57.7%1.53%	71.8%0.10%	55.2%1.56%	38.2%1.98%	33.9%2.90%	55.3%1.57%	52.0%3.37%	44.5%0.56%	58.9%1.38%	50.8%1.17%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	61.8%0.33%	51.8%1.48%	42.6%0.92%		54.4%1.07%	62.7%0.07%	48.9%1.12%	31.2%1.29%	27.7%2.04%	49.2%1.12%	46.7%2.33%	45.1%0.59%	52.9%0.97%	46.8%0.79%
Denver Broncos	60.0%0.36%	52.7%1.53%	42.3%1.53%	45.6%1.07%		71.0%0.17%	48.4%0.57%	27.7%0.56%	27.3%2.14%	46.2%1.19%	44.6%2.40%	41.0%1.22%	51.4%0.48%	44.8%0.39%
Houston Oilers	45.3%0.06%	30.4%0.20%	28.2%0.10%	37.3%0.07%	29.0%0.17%		27.7%0.17%	17.9%0.20%	14.9%0.34%	28.2%0.19%	28.9%0.37%	15.3%0.10%	34.2%0.15%	22.8%0.15%
Kansas City Chiefs	64.2%0.39%	54.8%1.40%	44.8%1.56%	51.1%1.12%	51.6%0.57%	72.3%0.17%		32.0%0.56%	29.2%2.03%	52.7%1.17%	45.9%2.25%	43.2%1.26%	57.6%0.51%	49.3%0.37%
Los Angeles Raiders	78.2%0.44%	71.3%1.87%	61.8%1.98%	68.8%1.29%	72.3%0.56%	82.1%0.20%	68.0%0.56%		44.3%2.78%	66.6%1.49%	63.2%2.87%	59.4%1.61%	69.9%0.56%	64.5%0.41%
Miami Dolphins	82.7%0.30%	76.4%1.28%	66.1%2.90%	72.3%2.04%	72.7%2.14%	85.1%0.34%	70.8%2.03%	55.7%2.78%		70.3%1.00%	67.0%1.23%	64.4%2.54%	73.2%1.82%	67.7%1.58%
New England Patriots	61.8%0.14%	57.7%0.76%	44.7%1.57%	50.8%1.12%	53.8%1.19%	71.8%0.19%	47.3%1.17%	33.4%1.49%	29.7%1.00%		46.3%1.24%	44.0%1.33%	54.7%1.04%	45.2%0.84%
New York Jets	64.6%0.34%	58.0%1.68%	48.0%3.37%	53.3%2.33%	55.4%2.40%	71.1%0.37%	54.1%2.25%	36.8%2.87%	33.0%1.23%	53.7%1.24%		44.1%2.90%	56.7%2.18%	50.5%1.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.7%0.45%	62.9%1.74%	55.5%0.56%	54.9%0.59%	59.0%1.22%	84.7%0.10%	56.8%1.26%	40.6%1.61%	35.6%2.54%	56.0%1.33%	55.9%2.90%		59.7%1.23%	56.5%1.04%
San Diego Chargers	59.6%0.36%	50.8%1.36%	41.1%1.38%	47.1%0.97%	48.6%0.48%	65.8%0.15%	42.4%0.51%	30.1%0.56%	26.8%1.82%	45.3%1.04%	43.3%2.18%	40.3%1.23%		42.3%0.39%
Seattle Seahawks	63.6%0.29%	58.4%1.11%	49.2%1.17%	53.2%0.79%	55.2%0.39%	77.2%0.15%	50.7%0.37%	35.5%0.41%	32.3%1.58%	54.8%0.84%	49.5%1.84%	43.5%1.04%	57.7%0.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		52.4%0.35%	30.7%2.38%	41.5%0.56%	47.8%0.53%	46.7%0.21%	50.6%0.44%	46.8%0.17%	60.3%0.42%	57.0%0.88%	30.9%0.18%	47.6%0.32%	65.5%0.22%	20.6%2.23%
Chicago Bears	47.6%0.35%		29.2%2.99%	41.9%0.35%	51.9%0.34%	48.9%0.46%	45.7%0.29%	55.7%0.41%	53.6%0.59%	56.9%1.06%	33.8%0.46%	45.4%0.36%	62.3%0.11%	20.6%2.78%
Dallas Cowboys	69.3%2.38%	70.8%2.99%		63.5%3.99%	69.5%4.10%	70.5%2.73%	71.7%3.56%	73.5%2.63%	77.0%1.73%	74.2%3.77%	55.0%3.08%	68.1%0.99%	82.5%1.53%	37.1%1.70%
Detroit Lions	58.5%0.56%	58.1%0.35%	36.5%3.99%		55.5%0.45%	56.5%0.68%	59.1%0.42%	60.4%0.65%	63.3%0.79%	63.8%1.65%	43.8%0.72%	57.7%0.53%	73.8%0.16%	26.4%3.84%
Green Bay Packers	52.2%0.53%	48.1%0.34%	30.5%4.10%	44.5%0.45%		48.9%0.66%	53.8%0.40%	54.6%0.60%	57.5%0.81%	58.4%1.71%	33.5%0.70%	47.4%0.52%	69.9%0.14%	21.9%4.16%
Los Angeles Rams	53.3%0.21%	51.1%0.46%	29.5%2.73%	43.5%0.68%	51.1%0.66%		57.2%0.55%	60.8%0.23%	59.7%0.55%	58.7%1.02%	40.6%0.19%	53.8%0.36%	69.7%0.25%	22.5%2.66%
Minnesota Vikings	49.4%0.44%	54.3%0.29%	28.3%3.56%	40.9%0.42%	46.2%0.40%	42.8%0.55%		54.5%0.52%	52.3%0.73%	54.5%1.37%	30.5%0.60%	42.2%0.39%	66.7%0.13%	18.9%3.18%
New Orleans Saints	53.2%0.17%	44.3%0.41%	26.5%2.63%	39.6%0.65%	45.4%0.60%	39.2%0.23%	45.5%0.52%		54.0%0.53%	56.0%0.91%	30.5%0.20%	41.8%0.32%	63.6%0.21%	18.4%2.29%
New York Giants	39.7%0.42%	46.4%0.59%	23.0%1.73%	36.7%0.79%	42.5%0.81%	40.3%0.55%	47.7%0.73%	46.0%0.53%		52.0%0.58%	26.9%0.59%	38.1%0.11%	59.9%0.32%	16.1%1.56%
Philadelphia Eagles	43.0%0.88%	43.1%1.06%	25.8%3.77%	36.2%1.65%	41.6%1.71%	41.3%1.02%	45.5%1.37%	44.0%0.91%	48.0%0.58%		28.1%1.17%	40.4%0.31%	63.1%0.57%	16.7%3.24%
San Francisco 49ers	69.1%0.18%	66.2%0.46%	45.0%3.08%	56.2%0.72%	66.5%0.70%	59.4%0.19%	69.5%0.60%	69.5%0.20%	73.1%0.59%	71.9%1.17%		61.9%0.36%	81.6%0.27%	34.3%2.81%
St. Louis Cardinals	52.4%0.32%	54.6%0.36%	31.9%0.99%	42.3%0.53%	52.6%0.52%	46.2%0.36%	57.8%0.39%	58.2%0.32%	61.9%0.11%	59.6%0.31%	38.1%0.36%		61.7%0.16%	23.6%0.87%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	34.5%0.22%	37.7%0.11%	17.5%1.53%	26.2%0.16%	30.1%0.14%	30.3%0.25%	33.3%0.13%	36.4%0.21%	40.1%0.32%	36.9%0.57%	18.4%0.27%	38.3%0.16%		12.3%1.39%
Washington Redskins	79.4%2.23%	79.4%2.78%	62.9%1.70%	73.6%3.84%	78.1%4.16%	77.5%2.66%	81.1%3.18%	81.6%2.29%	83.9%1.56%	83.3%3.24%	65.7%2.81%	76.4%0.87%	87.7%1.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			31.4%0.43%	35.0%0.20%	42.7%0.19%	48.4%0.03%	34.9%0.29%	21.4%0.92%				27.0%0.93%	37.8%0.23%	36.3%0.17%
Buffalo Bills			41.6%2.55%	47.2%1.57%	46.1%1.56%	77.4%0.15%	43.7%1.47%	29.4%4.49%				37.0%5.21%	48.1%1.37%	41.5%1.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	68.6%0.43%	58.4%2.55%			58.7%2.57%		53.3%2.44%	39.0%7.47%	34.1%9.61%	56.2%2.06%	52.6%5.42%		59.8%2.35%	54.7%2.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	65.0%0.20%	52.8%1.57%			53.2%1.44%		47.4%1.53%	32.1%4.66%	28.5%5.68%	49.8%0.98%	45.5%2.80%		53.1%1.23%	45.3%1.00%
Denver Broncos	57.3%0.19%	53.9%1.56%	41.3%2.57%	46.8%1.44%		68.9%0.18%			27.8%5.62%	47.9%1.19%	43.9%3.03%	39.1%4.78%
Houston Oilers	51.6%0.03%	22.6%0.15%			31.1%0.18%		25.7%0.17%	14.3%0.52%	13.8%0.62%	24.4%0.13%	24.8%0.37%		32.2%0.18%	19.7%0.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	65.1%0.29%	56.3%1.47%	46.7%2.44%	52.6%1.53%		74.3%0.17%			30.9%5.60%	49.6%1.23%	47.4%3.08%	42.3%5.01%
Los Angeles Raiders	78.6%0.92%	70.6%4.49%	61.0%7.47%	67.9%4.66%		85.7%0.52%			44.7%14.91%	66.2%3.44%	63.7%8.90%	57.5%12.71%
Miami Dolphins			65.9%9.61%	71.5%5.68%	72.2%5.62%	86.2%0.62%	69.1%5.60%	55.3%14.91%				62.6%15.40%	72.9%5.00%	67.8%4.33%
New England Patriots			43.8%2.06%	50.2%0.98%	52.1%1.19%	75.6%0.13%	50.4%1.23%	33.8%3.44%				42.0%3.77%	53.6%0.86%	47.0%0.74%
New York Jets			47.4%5.42%	54.5%2.80%	56.1%3.03%	75.2%0.37%	52.6%3.08%	36.3%8.90%				45.1%9.44%	56.9%2.47%	50.5%2.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	73.0%0.93%	63.0%5.21%			60.9%4.78%		57.7%5.01%	42.5%12.71%	37.4%15.40%	58.0%3.77%	54.9%9.44%		62.6%4.29%	56.1%3.63%
San Diego Chargers	62.2%0.23%	51.9%1.37%	40.2%2.35%	46.9%1.23%		67.8%0.18%			27.1%5.00%	46.4%0.86%	43.1%2.47%	37.4%4.29%
Seattle Seahawks	63.7%0.17%	58.5%1.15%	45.3%2.00%	54.7%1.00%		80.3%0.16%			32.2%4.33%	53.0%0.74%	49.5%2.09%	43.9%3.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		43.5%0.80%	29.5%4.49%	41.5%1.47%	48.0%1.63%		53.1%1.16%		53.6%0.31%	53.8%0.77%		44.6%0.25%	66.8%0.36%	22.2%5.02%
Chicago Bears	56.5%0.80%		30.6%5.21%			48.2%1.03%		49.8%0.88%	60.0%0.45%	58.7%0.81%	31.6%3.09%	45.9%0.30%		21.4%5.92%
Dallas Cowboys	70.5%4.49%	69.4%5.21%		61.3%9.62%	69.2%10.15%	68.3%5.78%	71.2%6.52%	73.1%4.63%			53.4%17.27%		81.1%2.04%
Detroit Lions	58.5%1.47%		38.7%9.62%			57.4%1.84%		60.6%1.70%	65.4%0.79%	65.1%1.95%	41.4%5.81%	51.1%0.57%		27.4%10.90%
Green Bay Packers	52.0%1.63%		30.8%10.15%			51.1%2.08%		56.4%1.95%	59.1%0.90%	60.4%2.10%	34.0%6.17%	45.4%0.69%		22.6%11.22%
Los Angeles Rams		51.8%1.03%	31.7%5.78%	42.6%1.84%	48.9%2.08%		56.3%1.51%		60.2%0.44%	59.3%0.94%		49.1%0.29%	68.8%0.49%	23.4%6.33%
Minnesota Vikings	46.9%1.16%		28.8%6.52%			43.7%1.51%		51.8%1.14%	54.5%0.63%	51.9%1.27%	30.9%4.08%	45.1%0.34%		21.2%7.55%
New Orleans Saints		50.2%0.88%	26.9%4.63%	39.4%1.70%	43.6%1.95%		48.2%1.14%		53.4%0.38%	52.8%0.90%		44.4%0.24%	67.8%0.32%	19.6%5.51%
New York Giants	46.4%0.31%	40.0%0.45%		34.6%0.79%	40.9%0.90%	39.8%0.44%	45.5%0.63%	46.6%0.38%			26.6%1.71%		59.2%0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	46.2%0.77%	41.3%0.81%		34.9%1.95%	39.6%2.10%	40.7%0.94%	48.1%1.27%	47.2%0.90%			28.2%3.46%		55.8%0.39%
San Francisco 49ers		68.4%3.09%	46.6%17.27%	58.6%5.81%	66.0%6.17%		69.1%4.08%		73.4%1.71%	71.8%3.46%		64.1%1.14%	79.9%1.32%	36.3%18.33%
St. Louis Cardinals	55.4%0.25%	54.1%0.30%		48.9%0.57%	54.6%0.69%	50.9%0.29%	54.9%0.34%	55.6%0.24%			35.9%1.14%		67.0%0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33.2%0.36%		18.9%2.04%			31.2%0.49%		32.2%0.32%	40.8%0.22%	44.2%0.39%	20.1%1.32%	33.0%0.11%		12.4%2.37%
Washington Redskins	77.8%5.02%	78.6%5.92%		72.6%10.90%	77.4%11.22%	76.6%6.33%	78.8%7.55%	80.4%5.51%			63.7%18.33%		87.6%2.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		26.7%0.03%	36.8%0.10%	37.8%0.04%	36.4%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	36.7%0.05%	28.8%0.17%	19.8%0.26%	52.9%0.02%	30.9%0.07%	22.6%0.17%	40.0%0.04%	47.6%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	73.3%0.03%		40.9%0.59%	43.1%0.31%	43.7%0.31%	68.8%0.02%	40.4%0.30%	29.5%1.40%	26.3%2.06%	37.8%0.18%	42.8%0.57%	36.8%1.35%	49.8%0.27%	46.4%0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	63.2%0.10%	59.1%0.59%		54.2%0.59%	57.7%0.74%	81.0%0.02%	57.3%0.78%	39.9%3.44%	34.7%4.53%	58.1%0.55%	51.7%1.58%	47.0%3.06%	58.4%0.65%	50.0%0.66%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.2%0.04%	56.9%0.31%	45.8%0.59%		52.1%0.36%	60.0%0.01%	50.7%0.38%	31.9%1.67%	29.7%2.21%	47.0%0.25%	44.4%0.67%	42.6%1.36%	58.2%0.28%	44.3%0.31%
Denver Broncos	63.6%0.03%	56.3%0.31%	42.3%0.74%	47.9%0.36%		70.8%0.02%	44.6%0.28%	34.2%1.48%	27.7%2.12%	54.0%0.23%	44.2%0.63%	39.2%1.51%	50.0%0.22%	43.5%0.21%
Houston Oilers	0.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.02%	19.0%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	29.2%0.02%		14.3%0.02%	17.6%0.12%	14.8%0.14%	26.3%0.02%	45.7%0.05%	28.1%0.06%	33.3%0.02%	16.7%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	63.3%0.05%	59.6%0.30%	42.7%0.78%	49.3%0.38%	55.4%0.28%	85.7%0.02%		37.0%1.77%	30.3%2.17%	55.0%0.28%	46.8%0.74%	43.4%1.74%	54.0%0.24%	50.8%0.25%
Los Angeles Raiders	71.2%0.17%	70.5%1.40%	60.1%3.44%	68.1%1.67%	65.8%1.48%	82.4%0.12%	63.0%1.77%		44.5%9.54%	65.4%1.10%	63.0%3.31%	58.2%7.45%	69.6%1.30%	59.9%1.21%
Miami Dolphins	80.2%0.26%	73.7%2.06%	65.3%4.53%	70.3%2.21%	72.3%2.12%	85.2%0.14%	69.7%2.17%	55.5%9.54%		69.4%1.75%	67.8%5.42%	61.5%9.71%	73.3%1.73%	68.6%1.69%
New England Patriots	47.1%0.02%	62.2%0.18%	41.9%0.55%	53.0%0.25%	46.0%0.23%	73.7%0.02%	45.0%0.28%	34.6%1.10%	30.6%1.75%		43.2%0.51%	39.9%1.04%	56.5%0.18%	45.2%0.18%
New York Jets	69.1%0.07%	57.2%0.57%	48.3%1.58%	55.6%0.67%	55.8%0.63%	54.3%0.05%	53.2%0.74%	37.0%3.31%	32.2%5.42%	56.8%0.51%		42.6%3.04%	56.8%0.55%	50.2%0.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers	77.4%0.17%	63.2%1.35%	53.0%3.06%	57.4%1.36%	60.8%1.51%	71.9%0.06%	56.6%1.74%	41.8%7.45%	38.5%9.71%	60.1%1.04%	57.4%3.04%		62.2%1.27%	56.9%1.23%
San Diego Chargers	60.0%0.04%	50.2%0.27%	41.6%0.65%	41.8%0.28%	50.0%0.22%	66.7%0.02%	46.0%0.24%	30.4%1.30%	26.7%1.73%	43.5%0.18%	43.2%0.55%	37.8%1.27%		41.1%0.19%
Seattle Seahawks	52.4%0.02%	53.6%0.27%	50.0%0.66%	55.7%0.31%	56.5%0.21%	83.3%0.02%	49.2%0.25%	40.1%1.21%	31.4%1.69%	54.8%0.18%	49.8%0.52%	43.1%1.23%	58.9%0.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		45.6%0.18%	30.1%1.27%	40.7%0.49%	46.7%0.41%	42.6%0.15%	56.0%0.23%	59.6%0.09%	59.2%0.05%	62.1%0.12%	36.7%0.82%	54.1%0.06%	63.5%0.07%	23.3%1.76%
Chicago Bears	54.4%0.18%		29.8%1.19%	44.6%0.34%	50.5%0.32%	51.8%0.28%	53.5%0.19%	56.7%0.20%	68.0%0.05%	57.8%0.11%	34.4%1.23%	43.9%0.06%	66.7%0.02%	21.1%1.93%
Dallas Cowboys	69.9%1.27%	70.2%1.19%		60.0%2.95%	69.2%2.75%	68.8%1.70%	68.9%1.49%	73.5%1.20%	76.3%0.47%	73.6%1.07%	52.5%7.74%	67.5%0.43%	75.2%0.32%	39.4%19.97%
Detroit Lions	59.3%0.49%	55.4%0.34%	40.0%2.95%		53.9%0.82%	55.0%0.66%	56.9%0.46%	63.8%0.51%	62.1%0.12%	58.5%0.29%	42.1%3.04%	51.5%0.10%	73.0%0.07%	28.9%4.28%
Green Bay Packers	53.3%0.41%	49.5%0.32%	30.8%2.75%	46.1%0.82%		49.4%0.54%	57.7%0.44%	60.9%0.41%	57.7%0.11%	55.6%0.26%	35.4%2.71%	52.9%0.10%	69.6%0.05%	24.2%3.96%
Los Angeles Rams	57.4%0.15%	48.2%0.28%	31.2%1.70%	45.0%0.66%	50.6%0.54%		52.8%0.36%	51.9%0.16%	53.9%0.08%	61.5%0.18%	36.9%1.10%	47.7%0.09%	60.0%0.06%	21.7%2.46%
Minnesota Vikings	44.0%0.23%	46.5%0.19%	31.1%1.49%	43.1%0.46%	42.3%0.44%	47.2%0.36%		51.8%0.26%	61.8%0.08%	63.7%0.15%	31.1%1.53%	44.9%0.05%	73.2%0.04%	21.1%2.42%
New Orleans Saints	40.4%0.09%	43.3%0.20%	26.5%1.20%	36.2%0.51%	39.1%0.41%	48.1%0.16%	48.2%0.26%		61.4%0.06%	48.7%0.11%	31.5%0.81%	37.2%0.04%	59.5%0.04%	20.8%1.95%
New York Giants	40.8%0.05%	32.0%0.05%	23.7%0.47%	37.9%0.12%	42.3%0.11%	46.1%0.08%	38.2%0.08%	38.6%0.06%		51.6%0.03%	29.3%0.38%	40.0%0.01%	61.1%0.02%	17.7%0.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	37.9%0.12%	42.2%0.11%	26.4%1.07%	41.5%0.29%	44.4%0.26%	38.5%0.18%	36.3%0.15%	51.3%0.11%	48.4%0.03%		26.1%0.79%	45.5%0.03%	57.1%0.03%	19.8%1.64%
San Francisco 49ers	63.3%0.82%	65.6%1.23%	47.5%7.74%	57.9%3.04%	64.6%2.71%	63.1%1.10%	68.9%1.53%	68.5%0.81%	70.7%0.38%	73.9%0.79%		63.6%0.29%	80.0%0.33%	36.2%11.86%
St. Louis Cardinals	45.9%0.06%	56.1%0.06%	32.5%0.43%	48.5%0.10%	47.1%0.10%	52.3%0.09%	55.1%0.05%	62.8%0.04%	60.0%0.01%	54.5%0.03%	36.4%0.29%		84.6%0.01%	26.3%0.63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36.5%0.07%	33.3%0.02%	24.8%0.32%	27.0%0.07%	30.4%0.05%	40.0%0.06%	26.8%0.04%	40.5%0.04%	38.9%0.02%	42.9%0.03%	20.0%0.33%	15.4%0.01%		17.2%0.55%
Washington Redskins	76.7%1.76%	78.9%1.93%	60.6%19.97%	71.1%4.28%	75.8%3.96%	78.3%2.46%	78.9%2.42%	79.2%1.95%	82.3%0.72%	80.2%1.64%	63.8%11.86%	73.7%0.63%	82.8%0.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	50.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%	28.4%0.07%	27.8%0.02%	14.3%0.01%	36.4%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.04%			17.0%0.11%
Buffalo Bills	50.0%0.06%	42.1%0.06%	25.4%0.60%	41.2%0.15%	42.6%0.11%	45.6%0.07%	45.8%0.08%	57.5%0.04%	30.8%0.01%	57.1%0.03%	30.1%0.43%	40.9%0.02%	77.8%<0.01%	22.1%1.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	53.8%0.14%	63.2%0.16%	34.4%1.80%	47.9%0.48%	53.4%0.34%	59.0%0.23%	58.8%0.19%	51.7%0.14%	69.8%0.04%	59.0%0.10%	40.3%1.26%	53.3%0.04%	64.0%0.03%	27.6%2.89%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	51.8%0.06%	49.3%0.07%	32.1%0.75%	38.7%0.20%	51.0%0.16%	49.5%0.10%	53.5%0.07%	53.7%0.05%	50.0%0.02%	72.2%0.04%	38.1%0.53%	38.1%0.02%	70.0%0.01%	24.5%1.27%
Denver Broncos	47.9%0.07%	54.4%0.06%	30.4%0.72%	46.3%0.16%	45.1%0.13%	42.9%0.09%	49.2%0.07%	39.1%0.06%	61.5%0.01%	78.4%0.04%	30.3%0.52%	40.0%0.01%	100.0%0.01%	21.9%1.14%
Houston Oilers	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	6.2%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	11.5%0.03%			8.9%0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	50.6%0.09%	50.0%0.10%	33.0%0.78%	41.1%0.21%	52.9%0.19%	48.3%0.12%	50.9%0.12%	52.5%0.06%	57.9%0.02%	49.1%0.06%	36.4%0.59%	45.8%0.02%	78.6%0.01%	26.1%1.36%
Los Angeles Raiders	65.4%0.41%	64.8%0.40%	47.2%4.28%	56.5%1.16%	64.3%0.90%	61.5%0.51%	68.6%0.48%	65.3%0.36%	71.6%0.12%	70.2%0.29%	49.7%3.19%	64.1%0.14%	79.5%0.09%	37.3%7.20%
Miami Dolphins	67.3%0.56%	68.5%0.58%	51.5%6.08%	61.7%1.68%	66.9%1.29%	68.5%0.79%	70.5%0.68%	71.5%0.50%	69.2%0.18%	75.5%0.38%	52.9%4.57%	63.8%0.20%	81.0%0.10%	40.9%10.40%
New England Patriots	45.2%0.04%	72.0%0.05%	35.0%0.56%	45.1%0.15%	43.8%0.11%	50.0%0.07%	59.7%0.08%	53.7%0.04%	46.7%0.01%	43.8%0.03%	36.0%0.41%	61.5%0.01%	63.6%0.01%	24.5%0.89%
New York Jets	49.4%0.15%	54.8%0.14%	36.8%1.59%	44.0%0.45%	52.6%0.36%	51.8%0.20%	56.6%0.21%	60.7%0.14%	70.0%0.04%	62.1%0.10%	40.0%1.22%	54.2%0.05%	58.3%0.02%	26.0%2.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.2%0.31%	57.5%0.35%	40.5%3.65%	50.3%0.89%	57.9%0.74%	57.6%0.43%	60.9%0.40%	61.4%0.27%	67.0%0.10%	64.9%0.23%	42.5%2.68%	52.8%0.13%	70.3%0.06%	29.7%5.81%
San Diego Chargers	60.0%0.05%	57.1%0.04%	28.0%0.56%	42.2%0.16%	45.5%0.11%	44.6%0.07%	53.9%0.08%	56.1%0.04%	72.2%0.02%	55.9%0.03%	34.0%0.42%	52.2%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	22.7%0.88%
Seattle Seahawks	57.1%0.06%	45.6%0.07%	36.8%0.64%	44.2%0.19%	55.9%0.13%	53.2%0.08%	63.3%0.06%	62.7%0.06%	60.0%0.01%	62.2%0.04%	38.2%0.50%	32.0%0.03%	61.5%0.01%	28.9%1.06%
Atlanta Falcons															50.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.06%	46.2%0.14%	48.2%0.06%	52.1%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	49.4%0.09%	34.6%0.41%	32.7%0.56%	54.8%0.04%	50.6%0.15%	40.8%0.31%	40.0%0.05%	42.9%0.06%
Chicago Bears															60.0%0.01%	57.9%0.06%	36.8%0.16%	50.7%0.07%	45.6%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.10%	35.2%0.40%	31.5%0.58%	28.0%0.05%	45.2%0.14%	42.5%0.35%	42.9%0.04%	54.4%0.07%
Dallas Cowboys															71.6%0.07%	74.6%0.60%	65.6%1.80%	67.9%0.75%	69.6%0.72%	93.8%0.02%	67.0%0.78%	52.8%4.28%	48.5%6.08%	65.0%0.56%	63.2%1.59%	59.5%3.65%	72.0%0.56%	63.2%0.64%
Detroit Lions															72.2%0.02%	58.8%0.15%	52.1%0.48%	61.3%0.20%	53.7%0.16%	60.0%0.01%	58.9%0.21%	43.5%1.16%	38.3%1.68%	54.9%0.15%	56.0%0.45%	49.7%0.89%	57.8%0.16%	55.8%0.19%
Green Bay Packers															85.7%0.01%	57.4%0.11%	46.6%0.34%	49.0%0.16%	54.9%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%	47.1%0.19%	35.7%0.90%	33.1%1.29%	56.2%0.11%	47.4%0.36%	42.1%0.74%	54.5%0.11%	44.1%0.13%
Los Angeles Rams															63.6%0.01%	54.4%0.07%	41.0%0.23%	50.5%0.10%	57.1%0.09%	71.4%<0.01%	51.7%0.12%	38.5%0.51%	31.5%0.79%	50.0%0.07%	48.2%0.20%	42.4%0.43%	55.4%0.07%	46.8%0.08%
Minnesota Vikings															50.0%<0.01%	54.2%0.08%	41.2%0.19%	46.5%0.07%	50.8%0.07%	75.0%<0.01%	49.1%0.12%	31.4%0.48%	29.5%0.68%	40.3%0.08%	43.4%0.21%	39.1%0.40%	46.1%0.08%	36.7%0.06%
New Orleans Saints															33.3%<0.01%	42.5%0.04%	48.3%0.14%	46.3%0.05%	60.9%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	47.5%0.06%	34.7%0.36%	28.5%0.50%	46.3%0.04%	39.3%0.14%	38.6%0.27%	43.9%0.04%	37.3%0.06%
New York Giants															50.0%<0.01%	69.2%0.01%	30.2%0.04%	50.0%0.02%	38.5%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	42.1%0.02%	28.4%0.12%	30.8%0.18%	53.3%0.01%	30.0%0.04%	33.0%0.10%	27.8%0.02%	40.0%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															50.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.03%	41.0%0.10%	27.8%0.04%	21.6%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	50.9%0.06%	29.8%0.29%	24.5%0.38%	56.2%0.03%	37.9%0.10%	35.1%0.23%	44.1%0.03%	37.8%0.04%
San Francisco 49ers															84.6%0.04%	69.9%0.43%	59.7%1.26%	61.9%0.53%	69.7%0.52%	88.5%0.03%	63.6%0.59%	50.3%3.19%	47.1%4.57%	64.0%0.41%	60.0%1.22%	57.5%2.68%	66.0%0.42%	61.8%0.50%
St. Louis Cardinals																59.1%0.02%	46.7%0.04%	61.9%0.02%	60.0%0.01%		54.2%0.02%	35.9%0.14%	36.2%0.20%	38.5%0.01%	45.8%0.05%	47.2%0.13%	47.8%0.02%	68.0%0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																22.2%<0.01%	36.0%0.03%	30.0%0.01%	0.0%0.01%		21.4%0.01%	20.5%0.09%	19.0%0.10%	36.4%0.01%	41.7%0.02%	29.7%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%
Washington Redskins															83.0%0.11%	77.9%1.02%	72.4%2.89%	75.5%1.27%	78.1%1.14%	91.1%0.04%	73.9%1.36%	62.7%7.20%	59.1%10.40%	75.5%0.89%	74.0%2.73%	70.3%5.81%	77.3%0.88%	71.1%1.06%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Washington Redskins	100.00%	75.14%	49.45%	31.16%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	70.48%	39.48%	19.06%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Raiders	100.00%	61.41%	33.12%	14.53%	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	52.74%	21.34%	11.02%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	70.44%	36.00%	15.47%	8.54%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	38.59%	16.36%	6.04%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	100.00%	29.27%	11.09%	4.91%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	59.34%	18.69%	7.30%	2.57%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	40.66%	10.83%	3.74%	1.15%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	29.56%	6.85%	2.65%	1.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		40.7%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks	59.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys		70.4%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams	29.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos			26.6%40.66%
Los Angeles Raiders				61.4%100.00%
Miami Dolphins	73.4%40.66%				68.5%59.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers		38.6%100.00%
Seattle Seahawks			31.5%59.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys				51.1%70.44%
Detroit Lions				38.1%29.56%	25.6%70.44%
Los Angeles Rams					23.2%29.56%
San Francisco 49ers	48.9%70.44%	61.9%29.56%
Washington Redskins		74.4%70.44%	76.8%29.56%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos		32.1%6.70%		38.4%4.12%
Los Angeles Raiders	67.9%6.70%		49.1%43.28%		63.9%11.43%
Miami Dolphins		50.9%43.28%		64.2%27.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	61.6%4.12%		35.8%27.20%		56.3%7.26%
Seattle Seahawks		36.1%11.43%		43.7%7.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		58.7%9.13%			37.6%26.86%
Detroit Lions	41.3%9.13%		56.1%2.62%	39.8%8.88%	26.8%8.64%
Los Angeles Rams		43.9%2.62%		35.5%4.23%
San Francisco 49ers		60.2%8.88%	64.5%4.23%		33.5%39.63%
Washington Redskins	62.4%26.86%	73.2%8.64%		66.5%39.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos	31.9%0.56%	37.7%0.39%	51.6%0.09%	36.6%0.79%	25.4%1.91%
Los Angeles Raiders	45.0%5.21%	56.5%3.67%	62.8%0.87%	49.2%7.07%	37.3%16.29%
Miami Dolphins	50.5%6.00%	61.0%4.44%	66.7%1.07%	53.1%8.34%	41.7%19.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	37.9%2.54%	50.0%1.78%	53.0%0.43%	42.0%3.62%	30.6%7.99%
Seattle Seahawks	35.9%1.15%	44.3%0.81%	49.7%0.19%	40.5%1.53%	30.1%3.62%
Dallas Cowboys						68.1%0.56%	55.0%5.21%	49.5%6.00%	62.1%2.54%	64.1%1.15%
Detroit Lions						62.3%0.39%	43.5%3.67%	39.0%4.44%	50.0%1.78%	55.7%0.81%
Los Angeles Rams						48.4%0.09%	37.2%0.87%	33.3%1.07%	47.0%0.43%	50.3%0.19%
San Francisco 49ers						63.4%0.79%	50.8%7.07%	46.9%8.34%	58.0%3.62%	59.5%1.53%
Washington Redskins						74.6%1.91%	62.7%16.29%	58.3%19.63%	69.4%7.99%	69.9%3.62%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Washington Redskins 31.16% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

69.78%

Win Prob

74.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.31%

Win Prob

66.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

36.75%

Win Prob

58.34%

Miami Dolphins 19.06% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

57.68%

Win Prob

68.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

55.77%

Win Prob

50.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

42.93%

Win Prob

41.66%

Los Angeles Raiders 14.53% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

64.20%

Win Prob

49.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

41.87%

Win Prob

37.34%

San Francisco 49ers 11.02% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

65.31%

Win Prob

48.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

62.19%

Win Prob

33.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

35.56%

Win Prob

46.95%

Dallas Cowboys 8.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

65.32%

Win Prob

37.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

34.81%

Win Prob

49.49%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.04% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

59.50%

Win Prob

35.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

40.42%

Win Prob

30.57%

Detroit Lions 4.91% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

61.52%

Win Prob

25.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

33.97%

Win Prob

41.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

35.23%

Win Prob

38.99%

Seattle Seahawks 2.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.34%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.50%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

56.54%

Win Prob

36.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

42.29%

Win Prob

30.12%

Denver Broncos 1.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.66%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

57.62%

Win Prob

32.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

42.36%

Win Prob

25.37%

Los Angeles Rams 1.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.59%

Win Prob

35.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

34.67%

Win Prob

33.30%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-09-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1484.97	1466.96	48.95%	50.47%	+7.83	1-0
1983-09-11	New York Giants	L 13-16	1492.80	1490.14	53.44%	45.99%	-8.28	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-14	1484.52	1502.06	43.87%	55.56%	+19.88	2-1
1983-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1504.40	1555.68	39.16%	60.28%	-7.02	2-2
1983-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1497.38	1505.26	51.93%	47.49%	-9.29	2-3
1983-10-09	New Orleans Saints	L 17-19	1488.09	1484.35	53.59%	45.83%	-6.79	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1481.30	1495.76	44.31%	55.12%	-9.72	2-5
1983-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 27-21	1471.58	1533.34	37.74%	61.71%	+13.52	3-5
1983-10-30	New England Patriots	W 24-13	1485.10	1507.31	49.87%	49.55%	+14.71	4-5
1983-11-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-27	1499.81	1471.73	50.40%	49.02%	-18.60	4-6
1983-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-36	1481.21	1490.71	51.70%	47.73%	-22.19	4-7
1983-11-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-24	1459.02	1584.82	35.42%	64.05%	+11.46	5-7
1983-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 47-41	1470.48	1498.91	48.97%	50.45%	+11.06	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-37	1481.54	1669.61	22.70%	76.87%	-8.14	6-8
1983-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1473.40	1617.95	27.37%	72.15%	-6.49	6-9
1983-12-18	Buffalo Bills	W 31-14	1466.91	1472.45	52.26%	47.16%	+17.41	7-9
1983-09-04	@ New England Patriots	W 29-23	1407.05	1477.25	36.61%	62.85%	+13.77	1-0
1983-09-11	Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1420.82	1475.77	45.17%	54.25%	-10.71	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-28	1410.11	1498.17	34.26%	65.21%	-6.86	1-2
1983-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 22-19	1403.25	1463.31	44.45%	54.98%	+8.52	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-31	1411.77	1506.30	33.43%	66.05%	+10.22	3-2
1983-10-09	New England Patriots	W 12-7	1421.99	1467.63	46.50%	52.92%	+10.59	4-2
1983-10-16	Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1432.58	1505.22	42.67%	56.76%	-18.33	4-3
1983-10-23	Miami Dolphins	L 7-21	1414.25	1571.77	31.37%	68.12%	-10.52	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1403.73	1501.40	33.03%	66.45%	+5.94	5-4
1983-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 17-14	1409.67	1541.18	28.89%	70.63%	+10.93	6-4
1983-11-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1420.60	1598.84	28.87%	70.64%	-8.58	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-37	1412.02	1584.66	24.29%	75.27%	-13.24	6-6
1983-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-41	1398.78	1490.07	33.85%	65.63%	-12.87	6-7
1983-12-04	New York Jets	L 6-10	1385.91	1541.78	31.58%	67.91%	-5.66	6-8
1983-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-21	1380.25	1492.25	31.24%	68.25%	-3.96	6-9
1983-12-18	Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1376.29	1341.60	57.98%	41.46%	+11.75	7-9
1983-09-04	Miami Dolphins	L 0-12	1501.52	1563.63	44.15%	55.27%	-13.70	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-6	1487.82	1521.53	41.59%	57.84%	+10.35	1-1
1983-09-18	Baltimore Colts	W 28-23	1498.17	1410.11	65.21%	34.26%	+6.86	2-1
1983-09-25	Houston Oilers	W 30-13	1505.03	1409.87	66.13%	33.35%	+12.33	3-1
1983-10-03	New York Jets	L 10-34	1517.36	1541.10	49.65%	49.77%	-21.78	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-35	1495.58	1561.16	37.23%	62.23%	+9.64	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Baltimore Colts	W 30-7	1505.22	1432.58	56.76%	42.67%	+18.33	5-2
1983-10-23	New England Patriots	L 0-31	1523.55	1477.67	59.54%	39.90%	-29.65	5-3
1983-10-30	New Orleans Saints	W 27-21	1493.90	1481.51	54.83%	44.60%	+9.79	6-3
1983-11-06	@ New England Patriots	L 7-21	1503.69	1492.60	47.96%	51.47%	-16.07	6-4
1983-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1487.62	1530.25	40.35%	59.08%	+13.98	7-4
1983-11-20	Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-27	1501.60	1579.34	41.95%	57.48%	-6.51	7-5
1983-11-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-41	1495.09	1498.73	45.85%	53.58%	-20.11	7-6
1983-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-9	1474.98	1489.55	44.29%	55.14%	+11.03	8-6
1983-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1486.01	1563.52	41.98%	57.45%	-13.56	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1472.45	1466.91	47.16%	52.26%	-17.41	8-8
1983-09-04	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1466.96	1484.97	50.47%	48.95%	-7.83	0-1
1983-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1459.13	1476.04	50.63%	48.79%	+11.56	1-1
1983-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1470.69	1462.03	47.61%	51.82%	-7.38	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 19-22	1463.31	1403.25	54.98%	44.45%	-8.52	1-3
1983-10-02	Denver Broncos	W 31-14	1454.79	1464.99	51.59%	47.83%	+17.65	2-3
1983-10-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-23	1472.44	1478.14	52.24%	47.18%	-14.02	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-31	1458.42	1485.53	42.52%	56.91%	-14.25	2-5
1983-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-6	1444.17	1506.93	37.60%	61.85%	+5.53	3-5
1983-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 17-38	1449.70	1486.94	47.71%	51.72%	-19.58	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-21	1430.12	1481.43	39.16%	60.28%	-9.28	3-7
1983-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1420.84	1487.49	43.51%	55.92%	+8.66	4-7
1983-11-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-0	1429.50	1392.72	51.65%	47.77%	+22.23	5-7
1983-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-3	1451.73	1573.36	35.97%	63.50%	+17.95	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1469.68	1487.84	43.78%	55.65%	-6.79	6-8
1983-12-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-13	1462.89	1465.05	46.06%	53.37%	+11.70	7-8
1983-12-18	Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1474.59	1500.23	49.37%	50.05%	+6.33	8-8
1983-09-04	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-20	1536.74	1531.83	53.76%	45.66%	-15.21	0-1
1983-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 6-10	1521.53	1487.82	57.84%	41.59%	-10.35	0-2
1983-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1511.18	1457.95	54.01%	45.42%	-15.28	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1495.90	1456.49	52.03%	47.40%	+10.40	1-3
1983-10-02	Baltimore Colts	L 31-34	1506.30	1411.77	66.05%	33.43%	-10.23	1-4
1983-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1496.07	1540.07	46.74%	52.69%	-13.23	1-5
1983-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1482.84	1461.28	49.46%	49.96%	-11.72	1-6
1983-10-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1471.12	1460.46	54.58%	44.84%	+10.63	2-6
1983-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 34-14	1481.75	1499.52	50.51%	48.92%	+19.58	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 55-14	1501.33	1352.01	67.09%	32.39%	+18.59	4-6
1983-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 15-20	1519.92	1498.65	49.42%	50.00%	-9.89	4-7
1983-11-20	Houston Oilers	W 38-10	1510.03	1353.50	73.51%	26.03%	+12.34	5-7
1983-11-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-38	1522.37	1597.90	35.90%	63.56%	-15.76	5-8
1983-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-10	1506.61	1561.84	38.62%	60.82%	+19.61	6-8
1983-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1526.22	1549.32	49.74%	49.68%	+12.58	7-8
1983-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-20	1538.80	1453.35	58.56%	40.88%	-12.83	7-9
1983-09-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-27	1455.98	1489.88	48.19%	51.23%	-10.57	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-26	1445.41	1514.59	36.74%	62.71%	+12.54	1-1
1983-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-7	1457.95	1511.18	45.42%	54.01%	+15.28	2-1
1983-09-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1473.23	1526.75	38.86%	60.59%	+13.28	3-1
1983-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-24	1486.51	1481.29	53.81%	45.62%	-18.65	3-2
1983-10-09	New York Jets	W 10-7	1467.86	1562.87	39.56%	59.89%	+9.28	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-44	1477.14	1553.30	35.82%	63.65%	-16.68	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-28	1460.46	1471.12	44.84%	54.58%	-10.63	4-4
1983-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 25-19	1449.83	1359.47	65.51%	33.96%	+7.46	5-4
1983-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-35	1457.29	1479.94	43.15%	56.28%	-14.46	5-5
1983-11-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-0	1442.83	1409.40	57.80%	41.63%	+16.68	6-5
1983-11-20	@ New England Patriots	W 30-0	1459.51	1526.37	37.05%	62.40%	+30.56	7-5
1983-11-27	Baltimore Colts	W 41-23	1490.07	1398.78	65.63%	33.85%	+12.87	8-5
1983-12-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-27	1502.94	1471.37	50.90%	48.52%	-20.88	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 27-34	1482.06	1325.52	68.00%	31.49%	-16.08	8-7
1983-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1465.98	1567.25	38.70%	60.75%	+19.59	9-7
1983-09-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-30	1565.44	1567.02	46.14%	53.29%	+4.76	1-0
1983-09-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1570.20	1450.66	63.22%	36.24%	+13.40	2-0
1983-09-18	New York Giants	W 28-13	1583.60	1498.42	64.83%	34.64%	+12.02	3-0
1983-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1595.62	1469.41	69.99%	29.51%	+2.64	4-0
1983-10-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-24	1598.26	1490.36	61.65%	37.80%	+12.22	5-0
1983-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1610.48	1424.21	76.69%	22.88%	+3.55	6-0
1983-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-7	1614.03	1523.60	65.52%	33.96%	+16.67	7-0
1983-10-23	Los Angeles Raiders	L 38-40	1630.70	1577.29	60.57%	38.87%	-7.66	7-1
1983-10-30	@ New York Giants	W 38-20	1623.04	1469.03	67.68%	31.81%	+12.09	8-1
1983-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1635.13	1495.46	65.86%	33.62%	+7.97	9-1
1983-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-24	1643.10	1481.79	68.59%	30.90%	-6.13	9-2
1983-11-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-21	1636.97	1508.54	70.26%	29.25%	+11.72	10-2
1983-11-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1648.69	1461.11	76.82%	22.75%	+8.65	11-2
1983-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 35-10	1657.34	1500.78	68.00%	31.49%	+14.11	12-2
1983-12-11	Washington Redskins	L 10-31	1671.45	1677.74	52.16%	47.27%	-21.39	12-3
1983-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-42	1650.06	1577.08	56.81%	42.62%	-25.41	12-4
1983-09-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-10	1464.50	1536.12	36.42%	63.04%	+11.27	1-0
1983-09-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-10	1475.77	1420.82	54.25%	45.17%	+10.71	2-0
1983-09-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1486.48	1507.67	50.01%	49.41%	-7.76	2-1
1983-09-25	Los Angeles Raiders	L 7-22	1478.72	1573.67	39.56%	59.88%	-13.73	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1464.99	1454.79	47.83%	51.59%	-17.66	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-14	1447.33	1390.82	54.48%	44.95%	+13.95	3-3
1983-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1461.28	1482.84	49.96%	49.46%	+11.72	4-3
1983-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 14-6	1473.00	1515.39	46.97%	52.46%	+13.27	5-3
1983-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1486.27	1518.04	48.49%	50.93%	+7.90	6-3
1983-11-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-27	1494.17	1509.42	44.19%	55.24%	-11.20	6-4
1983-11-13	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-22	1482.97	1575.06	33.74%	65.73%	-4.27	6-5
1983-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-27	1478.70	1508.55	48.77%	50.65%	+15.03	7-5
1983-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-31	1493.73	1461.45	51.00%	48.42%	-22.36	7-6
1983-12-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-6	1471.37	1502.94	48.52%	50.90%	+20.88	8-6
1983-12-11	Baltimore Colts	W 21-19	1492.25	1380.25	68.25%	31.24%	+3.96	9-6
1983-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-48	1496.21	1471.03	49.98%	49.44%	-24.91	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 11-0	1499.17	1491.46	47.47%	51.95%	+15.42	1-0
1983-09-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 26-31	1514.59	1445.41	62.71%	36.74%	-12.53	1-1
1983-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1502.06	1484.52	55.56%	43.87%	-19.89	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1482.17	1483.19	46.22%	53.20%	-7.17	1-3
1983-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-21	1475.00	1471.63	46.85%	52.57%	-13.91	1-4
1983-10-09	Green Bay Packers	W 38-14	1461.09	1526.66	43.67%	55.76%	+24.44	2-4
1983-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1485.53	1458.42	56.91%	42.52%	+14.25	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-38	1499.78	1611.53	31.27%	68.22%	-12.84	3-5
1983-10-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-17	1486.94	1449.70	51.72%	47.71%	+19.57	4-5
1983-11-07	New York Giants	W 15-9	1506.51	1456.94	60.05%	39.40%	+8.65	5-5
1983-11-13	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-27	1515.16	1333.42	71.06%	28.46%	-20.08	5-6
1983-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1495.08	1507.40	44.61%	54.82%	+8.50	6-6
1983-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-3	1503.58	1596.38	39.86%	59.58%	+34.53	7-6
1983-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-2	1538.11	1476.26	61.72%	37.73%	+11.21	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-17	1549.32	1526.22	49.68%	49.74%	-12.58	8-7
1983-12-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1536.74	1368.13	74.83%	24.72%	+3.84	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 41-38	1524.66	1438.04	58.72%	40.72%	+6.31	1-0
1983-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-25	1530.97	1524.84	53.94%	45.49%	-9.65	1-1
1983-09-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1521.32	1483.95	58.35%	41.08%	+6.38	2-1
1983-09-26	@ New York Giants	L 3-27	1527.70	1486.40	52.30%	47.12%	-22.93	2-2
1983-10-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 55-14	1504.77	1446.10	61.29%	38.16%	+21.89	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-38	1526.66	1461.09	55.76%	43.67%	-24.44	3-3
1983-10-17	Washington Redskins	W 48-47	1502.22	1617.12	36.86%	62.60%	+5.60	4-3
1983-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1507.82	1504.53	53.53%	45.89%	-8.30	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-34	1499.52	1481.75	48.92%	50.51%	-19.58	4-5
1983-11-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-21	1479.94	1457.29	56.28%	43.15%	+14.46	5-5
1983-11-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 29-21	1494.40	1482.55	48.06%	51.36%	+13.00	6-5
1983-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1507.40	1495.08	54.82%	44.61%	-8.49	6-6
1983-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 41-47	1498.91	1470.48	50.45%	48.97%	-11.07	6-7
1983-12-04	Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1487.84	1469.68	55.65%	43.78%	+6.80	7-7
1983-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 12-9	1494.64	1373.73	63.40%	36.06%	+5.59	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-23	1500.23	1474.59	50.05%	49.37%	-6.33	8-8
1983-09-04	Green Bay Packers	L 38-41	1438.04	1524.66	40.72%	58.72%	-6.32	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 6-20	1431.72	1547.04	30.83%	68.66%	-10.33	0-2
1983-09-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-40	1421.39	1534.49	37.10%	62.35%	-11.52	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-30	1409.87	1505.03	33.35%	66.13%	-12.32	0-4
1983-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1397.55	1533.34	28.38%	71.13%	-6.73	0-5
1983-10-09	Denver Broncos	L 14-26	1390.82	1447.33	44.95%	54.48%	-13.95	0-6
1983-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1376.87	1492.17	30.83%	68.66%	-12.36	0-7
1983-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-13	1364.51	1513.00	32.50%	66.99%	-5.04	0-8
1983-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-25	1359.47	1449.83	33.96%	65.51%	-7.46	0-9
1983-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-55	1352.01	1501.33	32.39%	67.09%	-18.59	0-10
1983-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 27-17	1333.42	1515.16	28.46%	71.06%	+20.08	1-10
1983-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-38	1353.50	1510.03	26.03%	73.51%	-12.34	1-11
1983-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-33	1341.16	1370.50	42.20%	57.23%	-11.34	1-12
1983-12-04	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1329.82	1613.66	18.14%	81.50%	-4.30	1-13
1983-12-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-27	1325.52	1482.06	31.49%	68.00%	+16.08	2-13
1983-12-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-20	1341.60	1376.29	41.46%	57.98%	-11.75	2-14
1983-09-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1501.55	1476.04	56.69%	42.74%	+7.65	1-0
1983-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 14-17	1509.20	1527.25	50.47%	48.95%	-7.82	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 12-27	1501.38	1575.60	36.07%	63.39%	-12.52	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-14	1488.86	1569.82	35.19%	64.28%	-8.92	1-3
1983-10-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-14	1479.94	1434.19	59.52%	39.92%	+17.52	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-21	1497.46	1581.75	34.75%	64.72%	-3.11	2-4
1983-10-16	New York Giants	W 38-17	1494.35	1487.86	53.99%	45.44%	+18.65	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1513.00	1364.51	66.99%	32.50%	+5.04	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1518.04	1486.27	50.93%	48.49%	-7.89	4-5
1983-11-06	Los Angeles Raiders	L 20-28	1510.15	1563.56	45.39%	54.03%	-11.50	4-6
1983-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-15	1498.65	1519.92	50.00%	49.42%	+9.89	5-6
1983-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-41	1508.54	1636.97	29.25%	70.26%	-11.72	5-7
1983-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 48-51	1496.82	1493.52	46.84%	52.59%	-7.27	5-8
1983-12-04	Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1489.55	1474.98	55.14%	44.29%	-11.03	5-9
1983-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 38-41	1478.52	1464.96	48.31%	51.11%	-7.49	5-10
1983-12-18	Denver Broncos	W 48-17	1471.03	1496.21	49.44%	49.98%	+24.91	6-10
1983-09-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-10	1531.83	1536.74	45.66%	53.76%	+15.21	1-0
1983-09-11	Houston Oilers	W 20-6	1547.04	1431.72	68.66%	30.83%	+10.34	2-0
1983-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 27-14	1557.38	1586.12	48.93%	50.49%	+16.29	3-0
1983-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 22-7	1573.67	1478.72	59.88%	39.56%	+13.73	4-0
1983-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 35-37	1587.40	1599.30	44.67%	54.76%	-5.65	4-1
1983-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1581.75	1497.46	64.72%	34.75%	+3.11	5-1
1983-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 36-38	1584.86	1489.82	59.89%	39.55%	-7.57	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 40-38	1577.29	1630.70	38.87%	60.57%	+7.66	6-2
1983-10-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-34	1584.95	1488.03	66.35%	33.13%	-21.39	6-3
1983-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1563.56	1510.15	54.03%	45.39%	+11.50	7-3
1983-11-13	Denver Broncos	W 22-20	1575.06	1482.97	65.73%	33.74%	+4.28	8-3
1983-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1579.34	1501.60	57.48%	41.95%	+6.51	9-3
1983-11-27	New York Giants	W 27-12	1585.85	1463.79	69.49%	30.01%	+10.41	10-3
1983-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-10	1596.26	1483.81	62.27%	37.19%	+18.86	11-3
1983-12-11	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-34	1615.12	1461.98	73.13%	26.41%	-20.66	11-4
1983-12-18	San Diego Chargers	W 30-14	1594.46	1472.45	69.48%	30.02%	+10.76	12-4
1983-09-04	@ New York Giants	W 16-6	1460.05	1507.02	39.75%	59.69%	+16.88	1-0
1983-09-11	New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1476.93	1469.05	54.19%	45.24%	+7.02	2-0
1983-09-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1483.95	1521.32	41.08%	58.35%	-6.38	2-1
1983-09-25	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1477.57	1535.15	38.30%	61.14%	-5.94	2-2
1983-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 21-10	1471.63	1475.00	52.57%	46.85%	+13.91	3-2
1983-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 10-7	1485.54	1579.47	33.51%	65.97%	+10.22	4-2
1983-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-21	1495.76	1481.30	55.12%	44.31%	+9.72	5-2
1983-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 35-45	1505.48	1585.62	41.62%	57.82%	-11.79	5-3
1983-10-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1493.69	1582.29	34.19%	65.28%	-12.26	5-4
1983-11-06	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1481.43	1430.12	60.28%	39.16%	+9.28	6-4
1983-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 36-13	1490.71	1481.21	47.73%	51.70%	+22.19	7-4
1983-11-20	Washington Redskins	L 20-42	1512.90	1651.79	33.72%	65.76%	-14.17	7-5
1983-11-27	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1498.73	1495.09	53.58%	45.85%	+20.11	8-5
1983-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-13	1518.84	1449.98	56.23%	43.20%	-10.06	8-6
1983-12-11	New England Patriots	L 7-21	1508.78	1488.34	55.97%	43.46%	-18.73	8-7
1983-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-24	1490.05	1468.28	49.49%	49.93%	+6.32	9-7
1983-09-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 12-0	1563.63	1501.52	55.27%	44.15%	+13.70	1-0
1983-09-11	New England Patriots	W 34-24	1577.33	1463.49	68.48%	31.01%	+8.79	2-0
1983-09-19	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-27	1586.12	1557.38	50.49%	48.93%	-16.30	2-1
1983-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-6	1569.82	1488.86	64.28%	35.19%	+8.92	3-1
1983-10-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1578.74	1466.77	62.20%	37.25%	-17.58	3-2
1983-10-09	Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1561.16	1495.58	62.23%	37.23%	-9.64	3-3
1983-10-16	@ New York Jets	W 32-14	1551.52	1553.60	46.07%	53.36%	+20.25	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-7	1571.77	1414.25	68.12%	31.37%	+10.52	5-3
1983-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-14	1582.29	1493.69	65.28%	34.19%	+12.26	6-3
1983-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1594.55	1576.06	49.02%	50.40%	+7.82	7-3
1983-11-13	@ New England Patriots	L 6-17	1602.37	1508.66	59.70%	39.74%	-17.71	7-4
1983-11-20	Baltimore Colts	W 37-0	1584.66	1412.02	75.27%	24.29%	+13.24	8-4
1983-11-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-14	1597.90	1522.37	63.56%	35.90%	+15.76	9-4
1983-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1613.66	1329.82	81.50%	18.14%	+4.29	10-4
1983-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1617.95	1473.40	72.15%	27.37%	+6.49	11-4
1983-12-16	New York Jets	W 34-14	1624.44	1522.42	67.00%	32.48%	+13.02	12-4
1983-09-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-21	1489.88	1455.98	51.23%	48.19%	+10.57	1-0
1983-09-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-48	1500.45	1517.19	50.65%	48.77%	-25.25	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-16	1475.20	1464.48	47.90%	51.52%	+7.99	2-1
1983-09-25	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1483.19	1482.17	53.20%	46.22%	+7.17	3-1
1983-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-37	1490.36	1598.26	37.80%	61.65%	-12.22	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1478.14	1472.44	47.18%	52.24%	+14.03	4-2
1983-10-16	Houston Oilers	W 34-14	1492.17	1376.87	68.66%	30.83%	+12.36	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1504.53	1507.82	45.89%	53.53%	+8.29	6-2
1983-10-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 31-41	1512.82	1417.79	59.89%	39.55%	-16.93	6-3
1983-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-17	1495.89	1396.07	66.72%	32.76%	-13.34	6-4
1983-11-13	Green Bay Packers	L 21-29	1482.55	1494.40	51.36%	48.06%	-13.00	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1469.55	1607.42	28.14%	71.38%	+11.05	7-5
1983-11-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-17	1480.60	1466.48	48.39%	51.03%	-4.34	7-6
1983-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 2-13	1476.26	1538.11	37.73%	61.72%	-11.21	7-7
1983-12-11	Chicago Bears	L 13-19	1465.05	1462.89	53.37%	46.06%	-11.70	7-8
1983-12-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1453.35	1538.80	40.88%	58.56%	+12.83	8-8
1983-09-04	Baltimore Colts	L 23-29	1477.25	1407.05	62.85%	36.61%	-13.76	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-34	1463.49	1577.33	31.01%	68.48%	-8.79	0-2
1983-09-18	New York Jets	W 23-13	1454.70	1552.19	39.22%	60.23%	+17.03	1-2
1983-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-23	1471.73	1546.01	36.06%	63.40%	+12.67	2-2
1983-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-33	1484.40	1562.70	41.88%	57.56%	-16.77	2-3
1983-10-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-12	1467.63	1421.99	52.92%	46.50%	-10.59	2-4
1983-10-16	San Diego Chargers	W 37-21	1457.04	1536.02	41.78%	57.66%	+20.63	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-0	1477.67	1523.55	39.90%	59.54%	+29.64	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-24	1507.31	1485.10	49.55%	49.87%	-14.71	4-5
1983-11-06	Buffalo Bills	W 21-7	1492.60	1503.69	51.47%	47.96%	+16.06	5-5
1983-11-13	Miami Dolphins	W 17-6	1508.66	1602.37	39.74%	59.70%	+17.71	6-5
1983-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-30	1526.37	1459.51	62.40%	37.05%	-30.56	6-6
1983-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 3-26	1495.81	1523.55	42.43%	57.00%	-18.23	6-7
1983-12-04	New Orleans Saints	W 7-0	1477.58	1470.81	54.03%	45.40%	+10.76	7-7
1983-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-7	1488.34	1508.78	43.46%	55.97%	+18.74	8-7
1983-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-24	1507.08	1496.06	47.94%	51.48%	-18.22	8-8
1983-09-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-17	1454.85	1464.86	51.62%	47.80%	+14.20	1-0
1983-09-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-30	1469.05	1476.93	45.24%	54.19%	-7.02	1-1
1983-09-18	Chicago Bears	W 34-31	1462.03	1470.69	51.82%	47.61%	+7.38	2-1
1983-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-21	1469.41	1595.62	29.51%	69.99%	-2.64	2-2
1983-10-02	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1466.77	1578.74	37.25%	62.20%	+17.58	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-17	1484.35	1488.09	45.83%	53.59%	+6.79	4-2
1983-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-32	1491.14	1569.26	41.90%	57.54%	-16.36	4-3
1983-10-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1474.78	1407.55	56.00%	43.43%	+6.73	5-3
1983-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-27	1481.51	1493.90	44.60%	54.83%	-9.78	5-4
1983-11-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-10	1471.73	1499.81	49.02%	50.40%	+18.60	6-4
1983-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-27	1490.33	1568.24	35.59%	63.88%	-16.57	6-5
1983-11-21	New York Jets	L 28-31	1473.76	1516.26	46.95%	52.47%	-7.28	6-6
1983-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-16	1466.48	1480.60	51.03%	48.39%	+4.33	7-6
1983-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 0-7	1470.81	1477.58	45.40%	54.03%	-10.76	7-7
1983-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1460.05	1460.04	46.37%	53.06%	+8.23	8-7
1983-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-26	1468.28	1490.05	49.93%	49.49%	-6.33	8-8
1983-09-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-16	1507.02	1460.05	59.69%	39.75%	-16.88	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1490.14	1492.80	45.99%	53.44%	+8.28	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-28	1498.42	1583.60	34.64%	64.83%	-12.02	1-2
1983-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 27-3	1486.40	1527.70	47.12%	52.30%	+22.93	2-2
1983-10-02	San Diego Chargers	L 34-41	1509.33	1513.48	52.46%	46.96%	-12.42	2-3
1983-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-17	1496.91	1514.56	50.52%	48.90%	-9.05	2-4
1983-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-38	1487.86	1494.35	45.44%	53.99%	-18.64	2-5
1983-10-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 20-20	1469.22	1417.61	53.78%	45.65%	-0.19	2-5
1983-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-38	1469.03	1623.04	31.81%	67.68%	-12.09	2-6
1983-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-15	1456.94	1506.51	39.40%	60.05%	-8.65	2-7
1983-11-13	Washington Redskins	L 17-33	1448.29	1642.08	27.07%	72.45%	-9.70	2-8
1983-11-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-0	1438.59	1478.83	40.68%	58.75%	+25.20	3-8
1983-11-27	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 12-27	1463.79	1585.85	30.01%	69.49%	-10.42	3-9
1983-12-04	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-10	1453.37	1452.46	53.19%	46.24%	-9.52	3-10
1983-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-17	1443.85	1486.67	46.91%	52.52%	-9.39	3-11
1983-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 22-31	1434.46	1699.13	15.92%	83.75%	-4.27	3-12
1983-09-04	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-29	1551.89	1543.32	47.59%	51.83%	+16.07	1-0
1983-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-17	1567.96	1468.38	66.69%	32.79%	-15.77	1-1
1983-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 13-23	1552.19	1454.70	60.23%	39.22%	-17.04	1-2
1983-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1535.15	1477.57	61.14%	38.30%	+5.95	2-2
1983-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-10	1541.10	1517.36	49.77%	49.65%	+21.77	3-2
1983-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-10	1562.87	1467.86	59.89%	39.56%	-9.27	3-3
1983-10-16	Miami Dolphins	L 14-32	1553.60	1551.52	53.36%	46.07%	-20.26	3-4
1983-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1533.34	1471.58	61.71%	37.74%	-13.52	3-5
1983-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1519.82	1597.41	35.63%	63.83%	+21.36	4-5
1983-11-06	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1541.18	1409.67	70.63%	28.89%	-10.93	4-6
1983-11-13	Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1530.25	1487.62	59.08%	40.35%	-13.99	4-7
1983-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-28	1516.26	1473.76	52.47%	46.95%	+7.29	5-7
1983-11-27	New England Patriots	W 26-3	1523.55	1495.81	57.00%	42.43%	+18.23	6-7
1983-12-04	@ Baltimore Colts	W 10-6	1541.78	1385.91	67.91%	31.58%	+5.66	7-7
1983-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1547.44	1542.23	53.80%	45.62%	-25.02	7-8
1983-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-34	1522.42	1624.44	32.48%	67.00%	-13.02	7-9
1983-09-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 22-17	1509.88	1528.33	43.74%	55.69%	+11.14	1-0
1983-09-11	Washington Redskins	L 13-23	1521.02	1562.25	47.13%	52.29%	-13.35	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1507.67	1486.48	49.41%	50.01%	+7.76	2-1
1983-09-25	St. Louis Cardinals	L 11-14	1515.43	1424.02	65.64%	33.83%	-10.17	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-24	1505.26	1497.38	47.49%	51.93%	+9.30	3-2
1983-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1514.56	1496.91	48.90%	50.52%	+9.04	4-2
1983-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1523.60	1614.03	33.96%	65.52%	-16.67	4-3
1983-10-23	Chicago Bears	L 6-7	1506.93	1444.17	61.85%	37.60%	-5.53	4-4
1983-10-30	Baltimore Colts	L 21-22	1501.40	1403.73	66.45%	33.03%	-5.94	4-5
1983-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1495.46	1635.13	33.62%	65.86%	-7.97	4-6
1983-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1487.49	1420.84	55.92%	43.51%	-8.66	4-7
1983-11-20	New York Giants	L 0-23	1478.83	1438.59	58.75%	40.68%	-25.20	4-8
1983-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-28	1453.63	1665.96	20.35%	79.25%	-3.65	4-9
1983-12-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-9	1449.98	1518.84	43.20%	56.23%	+10.06	5-9
1983-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1460.04	1460.05	53.06%	46.37%	-8.22	5-10
1983-12-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-31	1451.82	1482.64	42.00%	57.44%	-18.43	5-11
1983-09-04	Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1536.12	1464.50	63.04%	36.42%	-11.28	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 25-21	1524.84	1530.97	45.49%	53.94%	+9.65	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 40-28	1534.49	1421.39	62.35%	37.10%	+11.52	2-1
1983-09-25	New England Patriots	L 23-28	1546.01	1471.73	63.40%	36.06%	-12.67	2-2
1983-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 17-10	1533.34	1397.55	71.13%	28.38%	+6.73	3-2
1983-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1540.07	1496.07	52.69%	46.74%	+13.23	4-2
1983-10-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-17	1553.30	1477.14	63.65%	35.82%	+16.68	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1569.98	1497.40	56.76%	42.68%	+9.37	6-2
1983-10-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-12	1579.35	1400.81	75.89%	23.68%	+4.74	7-2
1983-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 26-3	1584.09	1496.54	65.14%	34.33%	+14.75	8-2
1983-11-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1598.84	1420.60	70.64%	28.87%	+8.58	9-2
1983-11-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1607.42	1469.55	71.38%	28.14%	-11.04	9-3
1983-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-45	1596.38	1503.58	59.58%	39.86%	-34.54	9-4
1983-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1561.84	1506.61	60.82%	38.62%	-19.61	9-5
1983-12-10	@ New York Jets	W 34-7	1542.23	1547.44	45.62%	53.80%	+25.02	10-5
1983-12-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-30	1567.25	1465.98	60.75%	38.70%	-19.59	10-6
1983-09-04	New York Jets	L 29-41	1543.32	1551.89	51.83%	47.59%	-16.07	0-1
1983-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1527.25	1509.20	48.95%	50.47%	+7.82	1-1
1983-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 31-34	1535.07	1484.15	53.68%	45.75%	-8.32	1-2
1983-09-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-30	1526.75	1473.23	60.59%	38.86%	-13.27	1-3
1983-10-02	@ New York Giants	W 41-34	1513.48	1509.33	46.96%	52.46%	+12.42	2-3
1983-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-21	1525.90	1499.94	56.75%	42.68%	+10.12	3-3
1983-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 21-37	1536.02	1457.04	57.66%	41.78%	-20.63	3-4
1983-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-14	1515.39	1473.00	52.46%	46.97%	-13.28	3-5
1983-10-31	Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1502.11	1624.37	35.88%	63.58%	-5.57	3-6
1983-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-26	1496.54	1584.09	34.33%	65.14%	-14.75	3-7
1983-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1481.79	1643.10	30.90%	68.59%	+6.13	4-7
1983-11-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-44	1487.92	1434.64	54.01%	45.41%	-26.47	4-8
1983-11-27	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1461.45	1493.73	48.42%	51.00%	+22.36	5-8
1983-12-01	Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-42	1483.81	1596.26	37.19%	62.27%	-18.85	5-9
1983-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-38	1464.96	1478.52	51.11%	48.31%	+7.49	6-9
1983-12-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-30	1472.45	1594.46	30.02%	69.48%	-10.76	6-10
1983-09-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-22	1528.33	1509.88	55.69%	43.74%	-11.14	0-1
1983-09-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 48-17	1517.19	1500.45	48.77%	50.65%	+25.24	1-1
1983-09-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-27	1542.43	1437.27	61.28%	38.17%	+13.25	2-1
1983-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1555.68	1504.40	60.28%	39.16%	+7.02	3-1
1983-10-02	@ New England Patriots	W 33-13	1562.70	1484.40	57.56%	41.88%	+16.77	4-1
1983-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1579.47	1485.54	65.97%	33.51%	-10.21	4-2
1983-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-13	1569.26	1491.14	57.54%	41.90%	+16.36	5-2
1983-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-35	1585.62	1505.48	57.82%	41.62%	+11.79	6-2
1983-10-30	New York Jets	L 13-27	1597.41	1519.82	63.83%	35.63%	-21.35	6-3
1983-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1576.06	1594.55	50.40%	49.02%	-7.82	6-4
1983-11-13	New Orleans Saints	W 27-0	1568.24	1490.33	63.88%	35.59%	+16.58	7-4
1983-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-28	1584.82	1459.02	64.05%	35.42%	-11.46	7-5
1983-11-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-13	1573.36	1451.73	63.50%	35.97%	-17.95	7-6
1983-12-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-21	1555.41	1381.84	75.37%	24.19%	+8.11	8-6
1983-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1563.52	1486.01	57.45%	41.98%	+13.56	9-6
1983-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-17	1577.08	1650.06	42.62%	56.81%	+25.41	10-6
1983-09-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1476.04	1501.55	42.74%	56.69%	-7.66	0-1
1983-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 17-10	1468.38	1567.96	32.79%	66.69%	+15.77	1-1
1983-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1484.15	1535.07	45.75%	53.68%	+8.32	2-1
1983-09-25	Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1492.47	1588.12	39.47%	59.97%	-11.18	2-2
1983-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-9	1481.29	1486.51	45.62%	53.81%	+18.65	3-2
1983-10-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-28	1499.94	1525.90	42.68%	56.75%	-10.12	3-3
1983-10-16	Los Angeles Raiders	W 38-36	1489.82	1584.86	39.55%	59.89%	+7.58	4-3
1983-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1497.40	1569.98	42.68%	56.76%	-9.37	4-4
1983-10-30	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-21	1488.03	1584.95	33.13%	66.35%	+21.39	5-4
1983-11-06	Denver Broncos	W 27-19	1509.42	1494.17	55.24%	44.19%	+11.19	6-4
1983-11-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-33	1520.61	1422.58	60.30%	39.14%	-12.06	6-5
1983-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-38	1508.55	1478.70	50.65%	48.77%	-15.03	6-6
1983-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 51-48	1493.52	1496.82	52.59%	46.84%	+7.26	7-6
1983-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-35	1500.78	1657.34	31.49%	68.00%	-14.11	7-7
1983-12-11	@ New York Giants	W 17-12	1486.67	1443.85	52.52%	46.91%	+9.39	8-7
1983-12-18	New England Patriots	W 24-6	1496.06	1507.08	51.48%	47.94%	+18.21	9-7
1983-09-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-28	1464.86	1454.85	47.80%	51.62%	-14.20	0-1
1983-09-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-34	1450.66	1570.20	36.24%	63.22%	-13.39	0-2
1983-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-42	1437.27	1542.43	38.17%	61.28%	-13.25	0-3
1983-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-11	1424.02	1515.43	33.83%	65.64%	+10.17	1-3
1983-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-38	1434.19	1479.94	39.92%	59.52%	-17.53	1-4
1983-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1416.66	1604.96	27.70%	71.82%	-12.16	1-5
1983-10-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-27	1404.50	1420.65	44.06%	55.36%	+13.11	2-5
1983-10-24	New York Giants	T 20-20	1417.61	1469.22	45.65%	53.78%	+0.18	2-5
1983-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-31	1417.79	1512.82	39.55%	59.89%	+16.93	3-5
1983-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-45	1434.72	1629.94	21.99%	77.59%	-12.14	3-6
1983-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-28	1422.58	1520.61	39.14%	60.30%	+12.06	4-6
1983-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 44-14	1434.64	1487.92	45.41%	54.01%	+26.47	5-6
1983-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-35	1461.11	1648.69	22.75%	76.82%	-8.65	5-7
1983-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 10-6	1452.46	1453.37	46.24%	53.19%	+9.52	6-7
1983-12-11	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 34-24	1461.98	1615.12	26.41%	73.13%	+20.66	7-7
1983-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-7	1482.64	1451.82	57.44%	42.00%	+18.44	8-7
1983-09-04	Detroit Lions	L 0-11	1491.46	1499.17	51.95%	47.47%	-15.42	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1476.04	1459.13	48.79%	50.63%	-11.56	0-2
1983-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-19	1464.48	1475.20	51.52%	47.90%	-7.99	0-3
1983-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1456.49	1495.90	47.40%	52.03%	-10.39	0-4
1983-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-55	1446.10	1504.77	38.16%	61.29%	-21.89	0-5
1983-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1424.21	1610.48	22.88%	76.69%	-3.56	0-6
1983-10-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-34	1420.65	1404.50	55.36%	44.06%	-13.10	0-7
1983-10-23	New Orleans Saints	L 21-24	1407.55	1474.78	43.43%	56.00%	-6.74	0-8
1983-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-17	1400.81	1579.35	23.68%	75.89%	-4.74	0-9
1983-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-12	1396.07	1495.89	32.76%	66.72%	+13.33	1-9
1983-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-20	1409.40	1442.83	41.63%	57.80%	-16.68	1-10
1983-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 0-27	1392.72	1429.50	47.77%	51.65%	-22.22	1-11
1983-11-27	Houston Oilers	W 33-24	1370.50	1341.16	57.23%	42.20%	+11.34	2-11
1983-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1381.84	1555.41	24.19%	75.37%	-8.11	2-12
1983-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 9-12	1373.73	1494.64	36.06%	63.40%	-5.60	2-13
1983-12-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1368.13	1536.74	24.72%	74.83%	-3.83	2-14
1983-09-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 30-31	1567.02	1565.44	53.29%	46.14%	-4.77	0-1
1983-09-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-13	1562.25	1521.02	52.29%	47.13%	+13.35	1-1
1983-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-12	1575.60	1501.38	63.39%	36.07%	+12.52	2-1
1983-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-17	1588.12	1492.47	59.97%	39.47%	+11.18	3-1
1983-10-02	Los Angeles Raiders	W 37-35	1599.30	1587.40	54.76%	44.67%	+5.66	4-1
1983-10-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-14	1604.96	1416.66	71.82%	27.70%	+12.16	5-1
1983-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 47-48	1617.12	1502.22	62.60%	36.86%	-5.59	5-2
1983-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 38-17	1611.53	1499.78	68.22%	31.27%	+12.84	6-2
1983-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-24	1624.37	1502.11	63.58%	35.88%	+5.57	7-2
1983-11-06	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-7	1629.94	1434.72	77.59%	21.99%	+12.14	8-2
1983-11-13	@ New York Giants	W 33-17	1642.08	1448.29	72.45%	27.07%	+9.71	9-2
1983-11-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 42-20	1651.79	1512.90	65.76%	33.72%	+14.17	10-2
1983-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1665.96	1453.63	79.25%	20.35%	+3.65	11-2
1983-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-21	1669.61	1481.54	76.87%	22.70%	+8.13	12-2
1983-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1677.74	1671.45	47.27%	52.16%	+21.39	13-2
1983-12-17	New York Giants	W 31-22	1699.13	1434.46	83.75%	15.92%	+4.28	14-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-24	1624.65	1496.37	70.53%	29.47%	-16.60	0-1
1983-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-31	1471.30	1514.27	40.58%	59.42%	-17.70	0-1
1983-12-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1540.58	1602.49	37.98%	62.02%	-3.38	0-1
1984-01-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-10	1605.22	1547.66	61.43%	38.57%	+18.16	1-0
1984-01-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-14	1623.38	1547.91	63.84%	36.16%	+12.87	2-0
1984-01-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-9	1636.25	1721.63	37.96%	62.04%	+29.74	3-0
1983-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1496.37	1624.65	29.47%	70.53%	+16.60	1-0
1984-01-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-51	1512.97	1703.41	22.61%	77.39%	-13.35	1-1
1983-12-31	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-27	1637.46	1531.97	67.73%	32.27%	-15.95	0-1
1984-01-01	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-38	1547.66	1605.22	38.57%	61.43%	-18.16	0-1
1983-12-31	Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1602.49	1540.58	62.02%	37.98%	+3.38	1-0
1984-01-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1605.87	1716.76	31.60%	68.40%	-4.87	1-1
1983-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1514.27	1471.30	59.42%	40.58%	+17.70	1-0
1983-12-31	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-20	1531.97	1637.46	32.27%	67.73%	+15.94	2-0
1984-01-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-30	1547.91	1623.38	36.16%	63.84%	-12.87	2-1
1984-01-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 51-7	1703.41	1512.97	77.39%	22.61%	+13.35	1-0
1984-01-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1716.76	1605.87	68.40%	31.60%	+4.87	2-0
1984-01-22	Los Angeles Raiders	L 9-38	1721.63	1636.25	62.04%	37.96%	-29.74	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1983-12-11	26.41%	St. Louis Cardinals	1461.98	34	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1615.12	24
2	1983-11-20	28.14%	Minnesota Vikings	1469.55	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1607.42	14
3	1983-11-13	28.46%	@ Houston Oilers	1333.42	27	Detroit Lions	1515.16	17
4	1983-11-06	28.89%	Baltimore Colts	1409.67	17	@ New York Jets	1541.18	14
5	1983-12-26 *	29.47%	Los Angeles Rams	1496.37	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1624.65	17
6	1983-11-13	30.90%	@ San Diego Chargers	1481.79	24	Dallas Cowboys	1643.10	23
7	1983-12-11	31.49%	@ Houston Oilers	1325.52	34	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1482.06	27
8	1983-12-31 *	32.27%	Seattle Seahawks	1531.97	27	@ Miami Dolphins	1637.46	20
9	1983-11-06	32.76%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1396.07	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1495.89	12
10	1983-09-11	32.79%	Seattle Seahawks	1468.38	17	@ New York Jets	1567.96	10
11	1983-10-30	33.03%	Baltimore Colts	1403.73	22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1501.40	21
12	1983-10-30	33.13%	Seattle Seahawks	1488.03	34	@ Los Angeles Raiders	1584.95	21
13	1983-10-02	33.43%	Baltimore Colts	1411.77	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1506.30	31
14	1983-10-09	33.51%	Los Angeles Rams	1485.54	10	@ San Francisco 49ers	1579.47	7
15	1983-09-25	33.83%	St. Louis Cardinals	1424.02	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1515.43	11
16	1983-11-20	35.42%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1459.02	28	San Francisco 49ers	1584.82	24
17	1983-10-30	35.63%	New York Jets	1519.82	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1597.41	13
18	1983-11-27	35.97%	@ Chicago Bears	1451.73	13	San Francisco 49ers	1573.36	3
19	1983-09-25	36.06%	New England Patriots	1471.73	28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1546.01	23
20	1983-09-04	36.42%	Denver Broncos	1464.50	14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1536.12	10
21	1983-09-04	36.61%	Baltimore Colts	1407.05	29	@ New England Patriots	1477.25	23
22	1983-09-11	36.74%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1445.41	31	@ Detroit Lions	1514.59	26
23	1983-10-17	36.86%	@ Green Bay Packers	1502.22	48	Washington Redskins	1617.12	47
24	1983-11-20	37.05%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1459.51	30	@ New England Patriots	1526.37	0
25	1983-10-09	37.23%	Buffalo Bills	1495.58	38	@ Miami Dolphins	1561.16	35

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1983-11-24	34.54	@ Detroit Lions	45	1503.58	39.86%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1596.38	59.58%
2	1983-11-20	30.56	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1459.51	37.05%	@ New England Patriots	0	1526.37	62.40%
3	1984-01-22 *	29.74	Los Angeles Raiders	38	1636.25	37.96%	@ Washington Redskins	9	1721.63	62.04%
4	1983-10-23	29.65	New England Patriots	31	1477.67	39.90%	@ Buffalo Bills	0	1523.55	59.54%
5	1983-11-20	26.47	@ St. Louis Cardinals	44	1434.64	45.41%	San Diego Chargers	14	1487.92	54.01%
6	1983-12-19	25.41	@ San Francisco 49ers	42	1577.08	42.62%	Dallas Cowboys	17	1650.06	56.81%
7	1983-09-08	25.25	San Francisco 49ers	48	1517.19	48.77%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1500.45	50.65%
8	1983-11-20	25.20	New York Giants	23	1438.59	40.68%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1478.83	58.75%
9	1983-12-10	25.02	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1542.23	45.62%	@ New York Jets	7	1547.44	53.80%
10	1983-12-18	24.91	@ Kansas City Chiefs	48	1471.03	49.44%	Denver Broncos	17	1496.21	49.98%
11	1983-10-09	24.44	@ Detroit Lions	38	1461.09	43.67%	Green Bay Packers	14	1526.66	55.76%
12	1983-09-26	22.93	@ New York Giants	27	1486.40	47.12%	Green Bay Packers	3	1527.70	52.30%
13	1983-11-27	22.36	@ San Diego Chargers	31	1461.45	48.42%	Denver Broncos	7	1493.73	51.00%
14	1983-11-20	22.23	Chicago Bears	27	1429.50	51.65%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1392.72	47.77%
15	1983-11-14	22.19	Los Angeles Rams	36	1490.71	47.73%	@ Atlanta Falcons	13	1481.21	51.70%
16	1983-10-02	21.89	@ Green Bay Packers	55	1504.77	61.29%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1446.10	38.16%
17	1983-10-03	21.78	New York Jets	34	1541.10	49.77%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1517.36	49.65%
18	1983-10-30	21.39	Seattle Seahawks	34	1488.03	33.13%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	21	1584.95	66.35%
19	1983-12-11	21.39	Washington Redskins	31	1677.74	47.27%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1671.45	52.16%
20	1983-10-30	21.36	New York Jets	27	1519.82	35.63%	@ San Francisco 49ers	13	1597.41	63.83%
21	1983-12-04	20.88	@ Denver Broncos	27	1471.37	48.52%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	1502.94	50.90%
22	1983-12-11	20.66	St. Louis Cardinals	34	1461.98	26.41%	@ Los Angeles Raiders	24	1615.12	73.13%
23	1983-10-16	20.63	@ New England Patriots	37	1457.04	41.78%	San Diego Chargers	21	1536.02	57.66%
24	1983-10-16	20.26	Miami Dolphins	32	1551.52	46.07%	@ New York Jets	14	1553.60	53.36%
25	1983-11-27	20.11	@ Los Angeles Rams	41	1498.73	53.58%	Buffalo Bills	17	1495.09	45.85%