1982 NFL Season

126 regular-season games · 16 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1942

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1973

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Raiders

3.54 wins above expected

8 wins · 4.46 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

2.50 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.50 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	7	2	.778	-	232	177	+55	5.77	+1.23
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	6	3	.667	1	204	146	+58	5.24	+0.76
3	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	4	5	.444	3	140	182	-42	3.59	+0.41
4	Houston Oilers	1	8	.111	6	136	245	-109	3.49	-2.49

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	7	2	0	.778	-	198	131	+67	5.50	+1.50
2	New York Jets Playoffs	6	3	0	.667	1	245	166	+79	5.17	+0.83
3	New England Patriots Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	2	143	157	-14	4.11	+0.89
4	Buffalo Bills	4	5	0	.444	3	150	154	-4	4.92	-0.92
5	Baltimore Colts	0	8	1	.056	6.5	113	236	-123	2.28	-1.78

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	8	1	.889	-	260	200	+60	4.46	+3.54
2	San Diego Chargers Playoffs	6	3	.667	2	288	221	+67	5.18	+0.82
3	Seattle Seahawks	4	5	.444	4	127	147	-20	4.20	-0.20
4	Kansas City Chiefs	3	6	.333	5	176	184	-8	4.22	-1.22
5	Denver Broncos	2	7	.222	6	148	226	-78	4.35	-2.35

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	5	3	1	.611	-	226	169	+57	4.78	+0.72
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	0.5	187	198	-11	4.11	+0.89
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	0.5	158	178	-20	4.17	+0.83
4	Detroit Lions Playoffs	4	5	0	.444	1.5	181	176	+5	4.88	-0.88
5	Chicago Bears	3	6	0	.333	2.5	141	174	-33	4.16	-1.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	8	1	.889	-	190	128	+62	4.92	+3.08
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	6	3	.667	2	226	145	+81	5.91	+0.09
3	St. Louis Cardinals Playoffs	5	4	.556	3	135	170	-35	3.92	+1.08
4	New York Giants	4	5	.444	4	164	160	+4	4.47	-0.47
5	Philadelphia Eagles	3	6	.333	5	191	195	-4	4.72	-1.72

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	5	4	.556	-	183	199	-16	5.10	-0.10
2	New Orleans Saints	4	5	.444	1	129	160	-31	3.15	+0.85
3	San Francisco 49ers	3	6	.333	2	209	206	+3	5.50	-2.50
4	Los Angeles Rams	2	7	.222	3	200	250	-50	3.73	-1.73

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 28

New England Patriots 13

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Raiders 27

Cleveland Browns (1st) 10

Jan 8

San Diego Chargers 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Jan 9

Conference Championship

New York Jets 44

Cincinnati Bengals 17

Jan 9

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 31

Detroit Lions 7

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers 41

St. Louis Cardinals 16

Jan 8

Dallas Cowboys 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Jan 9

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

Jan 9

Super Bowl

Washington Redskins 27

Miami Dolphins 17

Jan 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1606	7	5.77	+1.23	90.24%	3	5	6	7	8	9
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1606	6	5.91	+0.09	66.20%	4	5	6	7	8	9
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1591	6	5.18	+0.82	82.64%	3	4	5	6	7	9
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1589	7	5.50	+1.50	92.99%	3	5	5	6	8	9
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1581	8	4.92	+3.08	99.66%	2	4	5	6	7	9
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1573	6	5.24	+0.76	81.33%	3	4	5	6	8	9
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1571	8	4.46	+3.54	99.87%	2	3	4	5	7	9
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1567	6	5.17	+0.83	82.44%	3	4	5	6	7	9
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1545	3	5.50	-2.50	9.02%	3	4	6	6	8	9
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1537	5.5	4.78	+0.72	69.52%	2	4	5	6	7	9
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1516	3	4.72	-1.72	21.05%	2	4	5	6	7	9
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1515	4	4.88	-0.88	40.71%	2	4	5	6	7	9
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1512	4	4.47	-0.47	52.21%	2	3	4	5	7	9
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1502	4	4.92	-0.92	39.61%	2	4	5	6	7	9
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1502	3	4.22	-1.22	32.89%	2	3	4	5	7	9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1496	5	4.17	+0.83	82.55%	2	3	4	5	7	9
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1485	5	5.10	-0.10	61.23%	3	4	5	6	7	9
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1483	5	4.11	+0.89	83.86%	2	3	4	5	6	9
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1473	5	4.11	+0.89	83.34%	2	3	4	5	6	9
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1462	5	3.92	+1.08	86.49%	2	3	4	5	6	9
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1456	4	4.20	-0.20	59.64%	2	3	4	5	7	9
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1437	4	3.59	+0.41	74.89%	1	3	4	5	6	9
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1436	3	4.16	-1.16	34.35%	2	3	4	5	7	9
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1432	2	4.35	-2.35	10.85%	2	3	4	5	7	9
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1422	4	3.15	+0.85	83.75%	1	2	3	4	5	9
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1414	2	3.73	-1.73	20.98%	1	3	4	5	6	9
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1377	1	3.49	-2.49	8.03%	1	2	3	4	6	9
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1315	0.5	2.28	-1.78	7.21%	0	1	2	3	4	8

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	-	-
Miami Dolphins	-	-	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	-
New England Patriots	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-
New York Jets	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Raiders	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	-
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	-	-	-	-	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	0-3 (1.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	3-0 (1.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-1-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	-	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	-	-
St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	-
New Orleans Saints	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.79%	1.19%	1.19%	0.79%	0.40%	1.19%	—	5.56%
7–13	1.19%	7.14%	3.17%	6.75%	1.98%	1.59%	—	21.83%
14–20	1.19%	3.17%	9.52%	5.56%	2.78%	1.98%	0.40%	24.60%
21–27	0.79%	6.75%	5.56%	8.73%	3.17%	1.19%	0.40%	26.59%
28–34	0.40%	1.98%	2.78%	3.17%	0.79%	1.59%	0.79%	11.51%
35–41	1.19%	1.59%	1.98%	1.19%	1.59%	0.79%	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	0.40%	0.40%	0.79%	—	—	1.59%
Total	5.56%	21.83%	24.60%	26.59%	11.51%	8.33%	1.59%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.16	20.16	+0.00
SD	9.99	9.99	13.56
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	50	50	+37
Min	0	0	-37

Games Played: 126

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
14–20	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	44.44%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
35–41	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	—	33.33%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.33	22.11	-1.78
SD	11.41	13.72	22.43
CV	0.56	0.62	—
Max	35	38	+35
Min	6	0	-31

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
7–13	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.56	26.22	-13.67
SD	9.11	9.96	12.73
CV	0.73	0.38	—
Max	26	44	+0
Min	0	13	-37

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	—	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	17.11	-0.44
SD	5.85	12.77	12.00
CV	0.35	0.75	—
Max	23	33	+20
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	33.33%	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.67	19.33	-3.67
SD	10.87	8.37	11.77
CV	0.69	0.43	—
Max	34	35	+13
Min	0	10	-28

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
35–41	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	11.11%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.78	19.67	+6.11
SD	6.32	13.39	11.44
CV	0.25	0.68	—
Max	35	50	+21
Min	18	6	-16

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	22.22%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
14–20	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	20.22	-4.67
SD	5.13	11.34	11.50
CV	0.33	0.56	—
Max	21	37	+14
Min	10	7	-17

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	33.33%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
28–34	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
35–41	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	55.56%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.11	16.11	+9.00
SD	6.68	11.30	12.56
CV	0.27	0.70	—
Max	37	36	+30
Min	14	7	-8

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	22.22%
21–27	—	—	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	11.11%	44.44%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.44	25.11	-8.67
SD	8.56	7.77	9.18
CV	0.52	0.31	—
Max	27	37	+3
Min	3	13	-21

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	22.22%	—	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.11	19.56	+0.56
SD	8.18	8.43	9.85
CV	0.41	0.43	—
Max	31	34	+20
Min	6	10	-15

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
14–20	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
21–27	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
35–41	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	22.22%	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.11	18.78	+6.33
SD	9.57	7.98	14.69
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	38	30	+31
Min	10	7	-20

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
14–20	—	—	22.22%	—	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	33.33%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.11	27.22	-12.11
SD	7.22	7.29	10.22
CV	0.48	0.27	—
Max	27	37	+2
Min	6	17	-30

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
14–20	—	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	55.56%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	22.22%	33.33%	33.33%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.56	20.44	-0.89
SD	10.27	7.70	15.23
CV	0.53	0.38	—
Max	37	35	+24
Min	9	12	-21

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
21–27	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	22.22%	—	—	—	22.22%
35–41	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%	—	—	33.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	33.33%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.89	22.22	+6.67
SD	8.21	8.51	10.30
CV	0.28	0.38	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	17	10	-14

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	55.56%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	33.33%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.22	27.78	-5.56
SD	4.99	8.27	6.73
CV	0.22	0.30	—
Max	31	37	+6
Min	14	14	-17

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	14.56	+7.44
SD	13.15	8.44	10.83
CV	0.60	0.58	—
Max	45	28	+27
Min	0	3	-6

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
14–20	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
28–34	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
35–41	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	—	44.44%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.78	22.00	-1.22
SD	10.24	11.38	16.06
CV	0.49	0.52	—
Max	35	42	+28
Min	7	7	-28

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
21–27	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
28–34	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.89	17.44	-1.56
SD	9.83	12.93	15.13
CV	0.62	0.74	—
Max	30	37	+16
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
7–13	11.11%	11.11%	—	33.33%	—	—	—	55.56%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	22.22%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	—	11.11%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.33	17.78	-3.44
SD	11.36	10.52	18.90
CV	0.79	0.59	—
Max	35	35	+29
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	—	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	—	55.56%
21–27	—	11.11%	—	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	33.33%	44.44%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.22	17.78	+0.44
SD	4.44	8.12	7.86
CV	0.24	0.46	—
Max	26	27	+16
Min	13	6	-10

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
14–20	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	44.44%
35–41	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.22	18.44	+8.78
SD	9.82	14.16	20.48
CV	0.36	0.77	—
Max	42	45	+37
Min	13	0	-24

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
14–20	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
21–27	—	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
35–41	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	44.44%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.22	21.67	-0.44
SD	9.88	7.14	9.84
CV	0.47	0.33	—
Max	35	37	+21
Min	7	13	-16

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
7–13	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	44.44%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.67	16.22	+6.44
SD	15.68	5.85	14.03
CV	0.69	0.36	—
Max	37	28	+23
Min	0	10	-16

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.00	24.56	+7.44
SD	11.76	12.14	11.18
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	50	41	+20
Min	12	3	-7

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
14–20	—	—	—	33.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	22.22%	55.56%	—	11.11%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.22	22.89	+0.33
SD	8.89	7.70	7.87
CV	0.38	0.34	—
Max	37	41	+13
Min	7	13	-10

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	11.11%	—	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.11	16.33	-2.22
SD	7.42	8.67	11.05
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	23	28	+16
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
7–13	—	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
21–27	—	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	44.44%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	18.89	-3.89
SD	9.00	8.61	12.82
CV	0.60	0.46	—
Max	24	31	+14
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	44.44%
14–20	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
21–27	—	—	11.11%	33.33%	—	—	—	44.44%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	44.44%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	19.78	-2.22
SD	6.56	6.30	6.87
CV	0.37	0.32	—
Max	26	32	+6
Min	9	10	-15

Games Played: 9

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
21–27	—	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
35–41	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	44.44%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.11	14.22	+6.89
SD	9.21	9.97	11.49
CV	0.44	0.70	—
Max	37	34	+28
Min	10	0	-14

Games Played: 9

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.37	+0.3
Allowed	0.39	-0.4
Differential	0.75	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Raiders	8	4.46	+3.54
2	Washington Redskins	8	4.92	+3.08
3	Miami Dolphins	7	5.50	+1.50
4	Cincinnati Bengals	7	5.77	+1.23
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	3.92	+1.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	3	5.50	-2.50
2	Houston Oilers	1	3.49	-2.49
3	Denver Broncos	2	4.35	-2.35
4	Baltimore Colts	0.5	2.28	-1.78
5	Los Angeles Rams	2	3.73	-1.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	3	Sep 19 – Nov 28	1 in 29
2	Los Angeles Raiders	5	Dec 5 – Jan 2	1 in 19
3	Washington Redskins	4	Sep 12 – Nov 28	1 in 18
4	New York Jets	5	Sep 19 – Dec 12	1 in 15
5	San Diego Chargers	5	Nov 28 – Dec 26	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	7	Nov 21 – Jan 2	1 in 30
2	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 21 – Dec 11	1 in 19
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Nov 21 – Dec 12	1 in 19
4	Detroit Lions	3	Nov 21 – Dec 6	1 in 14
5	Los Angeles Rams	4	Dec 2 – Dec 26	1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	50.98%	31.21%	12.87%	4.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.84%	35.95%	19.40%	9.81%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.09%	17.23%	34.52%	41.16%
Houston Oilers	7.10%	15.62%	33.21%	44.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	42.06%	25.18%	18.19%	11.16%	3.41%
New York Jets	25.93%	27.86%	23.93%	17.01%	5.27%
Buffalo Bills	20.77%	26.43%	26.19%	20.06%	6.54%
New England Patriots	10.34%	17.49%	24.12%	31.45%	16.61%
Baltimore Colts	0.89%	3.05%	7.58%	20.32%	68.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	35.30%	24.15%	17.70%	13.53%	9.33%
Los Angeles Raiders	20.92%	21.10%	20.41%	19.55%	18.03%
Denver Broncos	19.14%	19.93%	19.89%	19.55%	21.49%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.89%	17.22%	20.71%	23.44%	24.75%
Seattle Seahawks	10.75%	17.61%	21.29%	23.93%	26.41%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	32.52%	22.73%	18.08%	14.62%	12.05%
Green Bay Packers	24.99%	23.35%	20.67%	17.94%	13.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14.54%	18.66%	20.73%	22.73%	23.34%
Minnesota Vikings	13.94%	17.78%	20.66%	22.41%	25.22%
Chicago Bears	14.01%	17.47%	19.86%	22.31%	26.35%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	40.87%	25.56%	17.32%	10.87%	5.38%
Washington Redskins	22.70%	23.56%	21.11%	17.75%	14.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	16.18%	21.59%	22.70%	21.44%	18.09%
New York Giants	12.93%	17.29%	21.34%	24.22%	24.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.32%	12.00%	17.53%	25.71%	37.44%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	49.84%	30.61%	13.55%	5.99%
Atlanta Falcons	35.08%	36.43%	18.42%	10.07%
Los Angeles Rams	9.97%	19.73%	38.03%	32.27%
New Orleans Saints	5.10%	13.24%	29.99%	51.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Cincinnati Bengals	19.85%	15.90%	13.65%	10.80%	9.28%	8.22%	5.75%	4.78%	4.00%	2.75%	2.10%	1.68%	0.92%	0.33%
Miami Dolphins	16.29%	14.58%	11.79%	9.79%	8.90%	7.89%	6.53%	6.14%	5.33%	4.01%	3.63%	2.38%	1.57%	1.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.46%	11.28%	10.87%	10.46%	10.21%	9.31%	7.49%	6.91%	6.03%	4.58%	3.76%	3.56%	2.21%	0.86%
San Diego Chargers	11.23%	11.00%	11.15%	9.75%	8.86%	8.45%	7.64%	6.49%	5.94%	5.93%	4.62%	3.92%	3.44%	1.58%
New York Jets	10.19%	9.81%	9.82%	9.79%	9.20%	8.89%	8.17%	7.86%	6.98%	5.85%	5.18%	3.79%	2.43%	2.04%
Buffalo Bills	7.92%	8.14%	8.33%	9.01%	8.87%	8.83%	8.81%	8.45%	7.82%	6.77%	6.35%	4.83%	3.17%	2.72%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.07%	6.39%	7.19%	7.52%	7.79%	7.91%	8.12%	8.13%	8.02%	8.15%	7.78%	6.67%	6.88%	4.38%
Denver Broncos	4.08%	5.91%	6.83%	6.90%	7.43%	7.61%	7.79%	7.96%	8.04%	8.14%	8.25%	7.64%	8.10%	5.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.71%	4.63%	5.29%	5.95%	6.35%	6.99%	7.78%	7.96%	8.23%	9.27%	9.32%	9.01%	9.36%	6.13%
Seattle Seahawks	3.04%	3.90%	4.74%	6.01%	6.27%	7.16%	8.45%	7.79%	8.26%	9.83%	8.89%	8.92%	10.34%	6.38%
New England Patriots	3.23%	4.11%	4.47%	5.72%	6.41%	6.73%	8.19%	8.25%	8.45%	9.62%	9.77%	8.88%	7.82%	8.36%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.46%	2.17%	2.86%	4.10%	4.90%	5.54%	6.85%	8.48%	9.84%	10.04%	10.97%	13.18%	12.12%	7.47%
Houston Oilers	1.34%	1.96%	2.60%	3.50%	4.60%	5.10%	6.40%	8.08%	9.54%	9.80%	11.32%	14.37%	13.16%	8.23%
Baltimore Colts	0.12%	0.25%	0.41%	0.70%	0.92%	1.37%	2.02%	2.70%	3.52%	5.27%	8.05%	11.18%	18.48%	45.02%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	22.56%	14.74%	11.38%	10.37%	8.19%	6.65%	6.50%	5.14%	3.83%	3.51%	2.84%	1.92%	1.52%	0.85%
San Francisco 49ers	15.23%	14.92%	13.60%	9.67%	9.35%	9.33%	5.88%	5.47%	5.18%	3.36%	2.84%	2.56%	1.72%	0.87%
Atlanta Falcons	10.13%	11.12%	10.50%	9.44%	10.09%	9.99%	7.13%	7.04%	6.70%	4.81%	4.20%	4.10%	2.94%	1.81%
Detroit Lions	8.22%	9.96%	10.11%	8.64%	8.90%	7.88%	7.11%	7.30%	6.47%	6.02%	5.66%	5.01%	4.47%	4.25%
Washington Redskins	9.81%	8.67%	8.36%	9.35%	8.19%	7.59%	8.18%	6.97%	6.33%	6.81%	5.71%	4.97%	4.99%	4.09%
Green Bay Packers	6.63%	8.15%	8.70%	8.05%	8.45%	8.01%	7.82%	7.81%	7.28%	6.89%	6.72%	5.90%	4.98%	4.61%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.79%	6.67%	7.12%	8.73%	7.68%	7.69%	8.74%	7.64%	7.08%	7.70%	7.27%	6.19%	5.73%	4.98%
New York Giants	5.62%	5.36%	5.85%	7.08%	6.27%	6.95%	8.70%	7.34%	7.64%	8.72%	8.08%	7.50%	7.75%	7.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.42%	4.71%	5.09%	5.82%	6.59%	6.92%	7.12%	8.23%	8.13%	8.23%	8.86%	8.42%	8.68%	9.77%
Chicago Bears	3.04%	4.38%	5.34%	5.58%	6.44%	6.73%	7.12%	7.73%	7.83%	8.49%	8.65%	8.68%	9.36%	10.62%
Minnesota Vikings	3.01%	4.14%	5.05%	5.36%	6.49%	6.78%	7.04%	8.19%	8.34%	8.16%	9.25%	8.90%	9.10%	10.18%
Los Angeles Rams	1.84%	2.80%	3.55%	4.32%	5.32%	6.08%	6.62%	8.16%	10.20%	9.19%	9.75%	11.85%	11.03%	9.30%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.95%	3.04%	3.62%	5.03%	4.63%	5.44%	7.20%	6.59%	7.23%	9.67%	9.42%	9.96%	12.10%	13.12%
New Orleans Saints	0.75%	1.35%	1.74%	2.56%	3.41%	3.95%	4.86%	6.36%	7.76%	8.45%	10.74%	14.04%	15.63%	18.41%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Cincinnati Bengals	10.83%	9.36%	8.11%	7.66%	6.58%	6.83%	5.25%	5.35%	4.54%	4.69%	3.98%	4.20%	2.67%	2.80%	2.45%	2.59%	2.00%	2.21%	1.29%	1.30%	1.08%	1.18%	0.91%	0.84%	0.47%	0.47%	0.22%	0.16%
Dallas Cowboys	12.83%	10.28%	8.07%	7.10%	5.92%	5.65%	5.47%	5.18%	4.17%	3.62%	3.22%	3.12%	3.68%	3.43%	2.75%	2.02%	1.71%	1.62%	2.01%	1.71%	1.61%	1.08%	0.97%	0.77%	0.84%	0.53%	0.43%	0.20%
San Francisco 49ers	8.27%	7.59%	7.22%	7.17%	6.48%	6.48%	4.78%	5.04%	4.76%	4.76%	4.55%	4.30%	2.60%	3.09%	2.95%	3.17%	2.75%	2.51%	1.59%	1.68%	1.58%	1.52%	1.42%	1.20%	0.88%	0.82%	0.53%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	8.45%	7.91%	7.26%	6.84%	6.00%	5.79%	4.85%	5.16%	4.45%	4.50%	3.68%	4.12%	3.16%	3.49%	2.90%	3.13%	2.56%	2.85%	1.87%	2.19%	1.68%	1.80%	1.31%	1.23%	0.95%	0.78%	0.62%	0.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.48%	5.89%	5.89%	5.61%	5.48%	5.22%	5.02%	5.15%	4.92%	5.26%	4.47%	4.72%	3.32%	3.60%	3.44%	3.87%	3.13%	3.16%	2.11%	2.15%	1.98%	2.12%	1.77%	1.79%	1.09%	1.22%	0.66%	0.47%
San Diego Chargers	5.76%	5.59%	5.51%	5.40%	5.34%	5.66%	5.03%	4.46%	4.41%	4.61%	4.11%	4.47%	3.96%	3.70%	3.22%	3.28%	2.81%	3.28%	3.10%	2.85%	2.37%	2.24%	1.96%	2.05%	1.85%	1.39%	0.90%	0.71%
Atlanta Falcons	5.13%	5.20%	5.30%	5.47%	5.03%	5.39%	4.57%	5.05%	4.84%	5.19%	4.81%	4.81%	3.12%	3.62%	3.64%	3.93%	3.62%	3.31%	2.33%	2.35%	2.34%	2.16%	2.21%	1.94%	1.47%	1.40%	1.07%	0.70%
New York Jets	5.43%	5.25%	5.23%	4.91%	5.00%	4.65%	5.43%	4.73%	4.52%	4.18%	4.12%	4.38%	4.40%	4.07%	3.81%	3.69%	3.19%	3.48%	2.87%	2.94%	2.53%	2.50%	1.98%	1.96%	1.40%	1.32%	1.11%	0.92%
Detroit Lions	4.00%	4.21%	4.58%	4.99%	4.91%	4.96%	4.20%	4.47%	4.52%	4.63%	4.25%	3.83%	3.58%	3.71%	3.80%	3.49%	3.67%	3.15%	3.27%	3.04%	3.00%	2.57%	2.82%	2.37%	2.48%	2.07%	2.11%	1.30%
Washington Redskins	4.33%	4.86%	4.46%	4.61%	4.33%	4.33%	4.52%	4.67%	4.27%	4.03%	4.07%	4.01%	4.20%	4.11%	3.61%	3.13%	3.41%	3.14%	3.79%	3.41%	3.02%	2.51%	2.67%	2.47%	2.71%	2.04%	2.13%	1.16%
Buffalo Bills	3.93%	4.16%	4.23%	4.08%	4.25%	4.28%	4.95%	4.30%	4.33%	4.15%	4.11%	4.44%	4.61%	4.31%	4.09%	4.08%	3.69%	3.79%	3.34%	3.31%	2.99%	3.18%	2.56%	2.50%	1.94%	1.67%	1.43%	1.29%
Green Bay Packers	3.19%	3.63%	3.95%	4.13%	4.37%	4.32%	4.17%	4.11%	4.05%	4.15%	4.30%	3.99%	4.20%	3.98%	3.82%	3.73%	3.68%	3.67%	3.85%	3.48%	3.39%	3.12%	3.08%	2.72%	2.73%	2.23%	2.30%	1.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.19%	3.33%	3.63%	3.52%	3.77%	3.69%	4.47%	4.18%	3.96%	3.72%	3.98%	3.91%	4.75%	4.41%	3.82%	3.36%	3.61%	3.49%	4.38%	4.01%	3.73%	3.11%	3.14%	2.93%	3.06%	2.62%	2.57%	1.65%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.30%	2.60%	3.11%	3.17%	3.67%	3.49%	3.66%	3.60%	4.04%	3.96%	4.05%	3.82%	3.75%	3.91%	4.19%	4.38%	4.03%	4.00%	3.99%	3.99%	3.82%	4.01%	3.41%	3.52%	3.41%	3.39%	2.51%	2.23%
New York Giants	2.34%	2.91%	2.69%	2.91%	3.04%	3.19%	3.69%	3.33%	3.24%	3.08%	3.76%	3.74%	4.99%	4.04%	3.81%	3.23%	3.95%	3.80%	5.06%	4.34%	4.16%	3.45%	3.91%	3.72%	4.28%	3.34%	3.53%	2.48%
Denver Broncos	1.88%	2.33%	2.83%	2.80%	3.47%	3.23%	3.31%	3.49%	3.95%	3.63%	3.77%	3.67%	3.75%	3.88%	4.02%	4.00%	3.96%	4.06%	4.02%	4.14%	3.98%	4.25%	3.71%	4.18%	3.74%	4.11%	3.09%	2.77%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.62%	1.99%	2.33%	2.30%	2.82%	2.56%	2.99%	2.95%	3.25%	3.13%	3.53%	3.47%	4.11%	3.84%	3.95%	4.03%	3.97%	3.97%	4.74%	4.42%	4.44%	4.67%	4.38%	4.57%	4.49%	4.57%	3.60%	3.29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.56%	1.78%	2.26%	2.48%	2.69%	2.42%	2.80%	3.09%	3.36%	3.26%	3.73%	3.25%	3.67%	3.72%	4.15%	4.10%	4.22%	3.94%	4.43%	4.30%	4.40%	4.33%	4.60%	4.21%	4.74%	4.06%	4.83%	3.63%
Seattle Seahawks	1.33%	1.68%	1.92%	2.08%	2.27%	2.61%	3.12%	2.99%	2.95%	3.21%	3.41%	3.83%	4.39%	4.08%	3.96%	3.76%	3.95%	4.23%	5.23%	4.59%	4.49%	4.30%	4.59%	4.44%	5.09%	4.54%	3.66%	3.29%
Chicago Bears	1.28%	1.75%	1.95%	2.44%	2.44%	2.90%	2.69%	2.98%	3.00%	3.48%	3.37%	3.53%	3.63%	3.89%	3.87%	3.70%	4.04%	3.86%	4.83%	4.49%	4.56%	3.82%	4.73%	4.20%	5.36%	4.06%	5.44%	3.72%
New England Patriots	1.38%	1.68%	1.98%	2.17%	2.24%	2.36%	2.73%	2.97%	3.09%	3.27%	3.21%	3.56%	3.92%	4.10%	3.97%	4.26%	3.97%	4.51%	4.47%	4.71%	4.52%	5.00%	4.50%	4.68%	4.21%	4.08%	4.15%	4.29%
Minnesota Vikings	1.35%	1.60%	1.97%	2.14%	2.58%	2.48%	2.72%	2.75%	3.26%	3.31%	3.54%	3.27%	3.56%	3.84%	4.01%	4.00%	4.39%	4.04%	4.30%	4.52%	4.62%	4.42%	4.82%	4.35%	4.92%	4.34%	5.00%	3.91%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.10%	1.45%	1.55%	1.62%	1.93%	1.93%	2.52%	2.48%	2.42%	2.32%	2.95%	2.99%	4.02%	3.46%	3.45%	2.99%	3.76%	3.78%	5.35%	5.04%	4.96%	4.38%	5.20%	5.15%	6.48%	5.34%	6.50%	4.91%
Los Angeles Rams	0.69%	1.04%	1.26%	1.48%	1.69%	1.84%	2.15%	2.13%	2.67%	2.77%	3.24%	2.90%	3.16%	3.21%	4.07%	4.18%	5.31%	4.88%	4.02%	4.49%	4.96%	5.56%	5.74%	5.73%	5.17%	5.81%	5.15%	4.70%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.57%	0.75%	1.12%	1.09%	1.44%	1.37%	1.94%	1.98%	2.47%	2.49%	2.78%	2.68%	3.02%	3.25%	3.97%	4.52%	4.40%	4.95%	3.99%	4.84%	5.47%	6.19%	5.63%	6.57%	5.45%	7.09%	5.08%	4.88%
Houston Oilers	0.52%	0.70%	0.97%	0.98%	1.29%	1.31%	1.60%	1.78%	2.33%	2.28%	2.53%	2.37%	2.74%	3.09%	3.79%	4.43%	4.39%	4.74%	3.84%	4.77%	5.33%	6.45%	5.93%	7.16%	5.70%	7.79%	5.70%	5.49%
New Orleans Saints	0.23%	0.40%	0.53%	0.73%	0.83%	0.87%	1.09%	1.29%	1.74%	1.84%	1.90%	1.96%	2.15%	2.38%	3.14%	3.51%	4.08%	3.88%	3.66%	4.19%	5.48%	5.81%	7.00%	6.77%	7.33%	8.35%	9.06%	9.79%
Baltimore Colts	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.12%	0.15%	0.20%	0.29%	0.36%	0.50%	0.49%	0.58%	0.64%	0.88%	0.97%	1.35%	1.45%	1.72%	1.72%	2.25%	2.75%	3.54%	4.26%	5.04%	5.99%	7.78%	10.57%	16.61%	29.60%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cincinnati Bengals	19.85%	15.90%	13.65%	10.80%	9.28%	8.22%	5.75%	4.78%	11.76%
Miami Dolphins	16.29%	14.58%	11.79%	9.79%	8.90%	7.89%	6.53%	6.14%	18.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.46%	11.28%	10.87%	10.46%	10.21%	9.31%	7.49%	6.91%	21.00%
San Diego Chargers	11.23%	11.00%	11.15%	9.75%	8.86%	8.45%	7.64%	6.49%	25.43%
New York Jets	10.19%	9.81%	9.82%	9.79%	9.20%	8.89%	8.17%	7.86%	26.27%
Buffalo Bills	7.92%	8.14%	8.33%	9.01%	8.87%	8.83%	8.81%	8.45%	31.65%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.07%	6.39%	7.19%	7.52%	7.79%	7.91%	8.12%	8.13%	41.88%
Denver Broncos	4.08%	5.91%	6.83%	6.90%	7.43%	7.61%	7.79%	7.96%	45.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.71%	4.63%	5.29%	5.95%	6.35%	6.99%	7.78%	7.96%	51.33%
New England Patriots	3.23%	4.11%	4.47%	5.72%	6.41%	6.73%	8.19%	8.25%	52.90%
Seattle Seahawks	3.04%	3.90%	4.74%	6.01%	6.27%	7.16%	8.45%	7.79%	52.63%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.46%	2.17%	2.86%	4.10%	4.90%	5.54%	6.85%	8.48%	63.63%
Houston Oilers	1.34%	1.96%	2.60%	3.50%	4.60%	5.10%	6.40%	8.08%	66.42%
Baltimore Colts	0.12%	0.25%	0.41%	0.70%	0.92%	1.37%	2.02%	2.70%	91.51%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	22.56%	14.74%	11.38%	10.37%	8.19%	6.65%	6.50%	5.14%	14.47%
San Francisco 49ers	15.23%	14.92%	13.60%	9.67%	9.35%	9.33%	5.88%	5.47%	16.53%
Atlanta Falcons	10.13%	11.12%	10.50%	9.44%	10.09%	9.99%	7.13%	7.04%	24.56%
Washington Redskins	9.81%	8.67%	8.36%	9.35%	8.19%	7.59%	8.18%	6.97%	32.90%
Detroit Lions	8.22%	9.96%	10.11%	8.64%	8.90%	7.88%	7.11%	7.30%	31.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.79%	6.67%	7.12%	8.73%	7.68%	7.69%	8.74%	7.64%	38.95%
Green Bay Packers	6.63%	8.15%	8.70%	8.05%	8.45%	8.01%	7.82%	7.81%	36.37%
New York Giants	5.62%	5.36%	5.85%	7.08%	6.27%	6.95%	8.70%	7.34%	46.83%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.42%	4.71%	5.09%	5.82%	6.59%	6.92%	7.12%	8.23%	52.09%
Chicago Bears	3.04%	4.38%	5.34%	5.58%	6.44%	6.73%	7.12%	7.73%	53.64%
Minnesota Vikings	3.01%	4.14%	5.05%	5.36%	6.49%	6.78%	7.04%	8.19%	53.95%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.95%	3.04%	3.62%	5.03%	4.63%	5.44%	7.20%	6.59%	61.49%
Los Angeles Rams	1.84%	2.80%	3.55%	4.32%	5.32%	6.08%	6.62%	8.16%	61.31%
New Orleans Saints	0.75%	1.35%	1.74%	2.56%	3.41%	3.95%	4.86%	6.36%	75.02%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+8.73%

Clear Edge

53.97%0.79%45.24%

Elo Value

Home Edge

19 Elo

0.052 points per Elo point

030.4150

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.19 points

Lean Home

-8+1.59+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 12.5% · Tough Road: 12.5% to 25% · Favored: 25% to 50% · Heavy Favorite: 50% and up.

Title-Race Openness

14.9

Wide Open

14820

Champion Preseason Odds

Washington Redskins, 5th of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

31.2%

Favored

025.00%50%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.16 · As Expected: 1.16 to 1.6 · Elevated: 1.6 to 2.18 · High Variance: 2.18 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.57 · Close: 5.57 to 7.53 · Off Target: 7.53 to 9.83 · Well Off Target: 9.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.48 · As Expected: 3.48 to 5.8 · More Than Expected: 5.8 to 9.28 · Far More Than Expected: 9.28 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.52 wins

As Expected

01.454

Average Finish Error

Expected

5.68

06.5515

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.87%

Los Angeles Raiders

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

7.21%

Baltimore Colts

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

5 of 16

As Expected

04.616

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.55

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

66%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

84%

Lopsided

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

26%

Some Drama

0%20%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.20

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.10

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.33

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

43%

Upset-Prone

0%40%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

37%

Shaky Favorites

0%33%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.12 · Above Noise: 0.12 to 0.25 · Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.58

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.98

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.099

Within Noise

00.1250.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	85.53%	56.15%	35.63%	21.85%	11.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	88.24%	56.14%	33.69%	19.39%	11.35%
Miami Dolphins	81.90%	49.52%	28.50%	15.56%	8.82%
San Diego Chargers	74.57%	44.80%	25.43%	13.88%	7.92%
Washington Redskins	67.10%	40.34%	23.70%	13.61%	7.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	79.00%	45.01%	24.23%	12.53%	6.81%
San Francisco 49ers	83.47%	47.28%	25.47%	13.20%	6.25%
New York Jets	73.73%	41.21%	21.86%	11.11%	6.05%
Los Angeles Raiders	58.12%	31.92%	16.76%	8.66%	4.61%
Green Bay Packers	63.63%	33.96%	17.51%	8.69%	3.97%
Detroit Lions	68.12%	34.30%	16.63%	7.78%	3.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	61.05%	30.45%	14.98%	7.14%	3.06%
Buffalo Bills	68.35%	30.93%	13.28%	5.69%	2.60%
Atlanta Falcons	75.44%	34.30%	15.12%	6.45%	2.56%
New York Giants	53.17%	26.03%	12.34%	5.77%	2.53%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	47.91%	22.05%	9.84%	4.32%	1.86%
Kansas City Chiefs	48.67%	21.68%	9.23%	3.84%	1.76%
Minnesota Vikings	46.05%	20.24%	8.75%	3.65%	1.47%
New England Patriots	47.10%	18.82%	7.10%	2.68%	1.14%
St. Louis Cardinals	38.51%	15.93%	6.47%	2.69%	1.03%
Seattle Seahawks	47.37%	17.89%	6.46%	2.37%	0.92%
Denver Broncos	54.52%	19.14%	6.46%	2.15%	0.81%
Chicago Bears	46.36%	17.39%	6.35%	2.36%	0.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	36.37%	12.30%	4.20%	1.38%	0.54%
Los Angeles Rams	38.69%	13.09%	4.32%	1.49%	0.44%
New Orleans Saints	24.98%	8.50%	2.87%	1.02%	0.32%
Houston Oilers	33.58%	8.98%	2.44%	0.69%	0.19%
Baltimore Colts	8.49%	1.65%	0.35%	0.08%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		19.7%0.62%	13.7%1.30%	28.2%0.26%	31.0%0.58%	44.0%0.25%	20.4%0.47%	17.6%0.58%	13.9%0.97%	27.6%0.30%	18.9%0.71%	16.7%1.09%	15.7%0.93%	26.9%0.43%
Buffalo Bills	80.3%0.62%		33.9%8.21%	61.1%3.23%	59.5%5.15%	68.0%3.06%	50.0%4.43%	40.4%5.43%	37.4%8.40%	55.3%3.79%	40.5%6.71%	39.9%7.85%	36.3%6.99%	55.8%4.48%
Cincinnati Bengals	86.3%1.30%	66.1%8.21%		73.9%5.21%	74.0%6.97%	80.7%4.66%	66.0%6.48%	57.5%7.48%	52.9%8.53%	70.6%6.17%	56.9%8.63%	55.7%9.46%	53.0%8.75%	71.3%6.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	71.8%0.26%	38.9%3.23%	26.1%5.21%		47.6%2.36%	58.1%0.85%	40.0%2.12%	30.6%2.74%	27.9%4.59%	43.5%1.79%	30.1%3.88%	29.1%3.72%	27.6%3.76%	45.6%1.87%
Denver Broncos	69.0%0.58%	40.5%5.15%	26.0%6.97%	52.4%2.36%		58.8%2.23%	41.5%3.04%	30.6%4.13%	27.3%6.34%	44.6%3.47%	29.8%5.60%	30.8%6.06%	28.6%5.90%	47.3%2.69%
Houston Oilers	56.0%0.25%	32.0%3.06%	19.3%4.66%	41.9%0.85%	41.2%2.23%		32.8%1.85%	24.2%2.48%	21.5%4.21%	34.8%1.63%	24.2%3.49%	22.1%3.46%	20.4%3.69%	37.5%1.73%
Kansas City Chiefs	79.6%0.47%	50.0%4.43%	34.0%6.48%	60.0%2.12%	58.5%3.04%	67.2%1.85%		39.9%3.30%	36.6%5.75%	52.8%2.98%	39.7%4.96%	39.3%5.53%	37.0%5.05%	58.5%2.71%
Los Angeles Raiders	82.4%0.58%	59.6%5.43%	42.5%7.48%	69.4%2.74%	69.4%4.13%	75.8%2.48%	60.1%3.30%		46.5%6.62%	63.5%3.58%	49.4%5.98%	48.0%6.38%	46.5%6.36%	67.7%3.07%
Miami Dolphins	86.1%0.97%	62.6%8.40%	47.1%8.53%	72.1%4.59%	72.7%6.34%	78.5%4.21%	63.4%5.75%	53.5%6.62%		68.8%5.73%	54.1%8.77%	52.9%8.46%	49.0%7.65%	69.7%5.87%
New England Patriots	72.4%0.30%	44.7%3.79%	29.4%6.17%	56.5%1.79%	55.4%3.47%	65.2%1.63%	47.2%2.98%	36.5%3.58%	31.2%5.73%		36.4%4.39%	34.6%5.45%	32.6%5.05%	52.9%2.78%
New York Jets	81.1%0.71%	59.5%6.71%	43.1%8.63%	69.9%3.88%	70.2%5.60%	75.8%3.49%	60.3%4.96%	50.6%5.98%	45.9%8.77%	63.6%4.39%		49.5%8.07%	46.8%7.58%	65.7%4.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	83.3%1.09%	60.1%7.85%	44.3%9.46%	70.9%3.72%	69.2%6.06%	77.9%3.46%	60.7%5.53%	52.0%6.38%	47.1%8.46%	65.4%5.45%	50.5%8.07%		46.6%7.97%	66.5%5.50%
San Diego Chargers	84.3%0.93%	63.7%6.99%	47.0%8.75%	72.4%3.76%	71.4%5.90%	79.6%3.69%	63.0%5.05%	53.5%6.36%	51.0%7.65%	67.4%5.05%	53.2%7.58%	53.4%7.97%		69.4%4.88%
Seattle Seahawks	73.1%0.43%	44.2%4.48%	28.7%6.40%	54.4%1.87%	52.7%2.69%	62.5%1.73%	41.5%2.71%	32.3%3.07%	30.3%5.87%	47.1%2.78%	34.3%4.95%	33.5%5.50%	30.6%4.88%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		57.3%4.95%	32.3%8.44%	46.3%6.86%	42.3%6.74%	60.5%3.69%	51.1%4.79%	61.5%2.02%	46.5%5.71%	46.6%6.52%	39.6%9.61%	54.2%4.14%	49.4%4.91%	37.2%7.05%
Chicago Bears	42.7%4.95%		26.6%6.14%	37.6%4.21%	35.3%4.03%	52.8%2.02%	43.6%2.26%	53.4%1.20%	39.2%3.26%	39.3%3.80%	32.7%5.67%	47.3%2.07%	42.5%2.30%	30.6%4.46%
Dallas Cowboys	67.7%8.44%	73.4%6.14%		64.7%7.60%	60.9%7.33%	77.2%5.13%	67.8%6.18%	75.7%3.59%	63.6%6.48%	64.3%7.41%	58.7%8.40%	70.6%4.85%	66.4%6.43%	55.2%7.54%
Detroit Lions	53.7%6.86%	62.4%4.21%	35.3%7.60%		47.4%6.24%	64.6%3.57%	56.3%4.34%	67.7%2.44%	52.2%4.95%	49.6%5.80%	45.0%7.58%	58.3%3.71%	53.3%4.45%	39.7%6.36%
Green Bay Packers	57.7%6.74%	64.7%4.03%	39.1%7.33%	52.6%6.24%		70.2%3.11%	57.4%3.53%	66.8%2.09%	54.7%4.64%	52.7%5.38%	47.6%7.20%	61.1%3.38%	56.4%3.94%	43.5%6.03%
Los Angeles Rams	39.5%3.69%	47.2%2.02%	22.8%5.13%	35.4%3.57%	29.8%3.11%		40.3%2.10%	52.2%0.86%	34.5%2.66%	35.3%3.05%	30.5%4.67%	41.8%1.88%	36.7%2.27%	26.8%3.68%
Minnesota Vikings	48.9%4.79%	56.4%2.26%	32.2%6.18%	43.7%4.34%	42.6%3.53%	59.7%2.10%		60.7%1.29%	45.1%3.24%	44.2%3.82%	39.0%5.51%	53.7%2.25%	46.0%2.31%	36.6%4.43%
New Orleans Saints	38.5%2.02%	46.6%1.20%	24.3%3.59%	32.3%2.44%	33.2%2.09%	47.8%0.86%	39.3%1.29%		37.0%1.75%	36.3%1.97%	31.6%3.27%	43.9%0.97%	38.0%1.20%	26.4%2.33%
New York Giants	53.5%5.71%	60.8%3.26%	36.4%6.48%	47.8%4.95%	45.3%4.64%	65.5%2.66%	54.9%3.24%	63.0%1.75%		49.0%3.82%	42.8%6.26%	56.2%2.29%	52.9%3.43%	40.2%4.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	53.4%6.52%	60.7%3.80%	35.7%7.41%	50.4%5.80%	47.3%5.38%	64.7%3.05%	55.8%3.82%	63.7%1.97%	51.0%3.82%		45.0%7.23%	58.5%2.76%	53.1%4.04%	40.9%5.44%
San Francisco 49ers	60.4%9.61%	67.3%5.67%	41.3%8.40%	55.0%7.58%	52.4%7.20%	69.5%4.67%	61.0%5.51%	68.4%3.27%	57.2%6.26%	55.0%7.23%		62.9%4.77%	57.8%5.82%	46.7%7.49%
St. Louis Cardinals	45.8%4.14%	52.7%2.07%	29.4%4.85%	41.7%3.71%	38.9%3.38%	58.2%1.88%	46.3%2.25%	56.1%0.97%	43.8%2.29%	41.5%2.76%	37.1%4.77%		45.9%2.31%	31.7%3.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50.6%4.91%	57.5%2.30%	33.6%6.43%	46.7%4.45%	43.6%3.94%	63.3%2.27%	54.0%2.31%	62.0%1.20%	47.1%3.43%	46.9%4.04%	42.2%5.82%	54.1%2.31%		36.6%4.51%
Washington Redskins	62.8%7.05%	69.4%4.46%	44.8%7.54%	60.3%6.36%	56.5%6.03%	73.2%3.68%	63.4%4.43%	73.6%2.33%	59.8%4.69%	59.1%5.44%	53.3%7.49%	68.3%3.10%	63.4%4.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		19.0%0.10%	15.1%0.26%	29.1%0.06%	31.6%0.10%	48.3%0.03%	31.2%0.09%	21.5%0.14%	19.0%0.22%	26.1%0.05%	23.7%0.14%	23.3%0.22%	8.9%0.19%	20.8%0.07%
Buffalo Bills	81.0%0.10%		34.3%5.03%	57.9%1.01%	60.8%1.54%	67.6%0.71%	49.8%1.69%	41.2%2.77%	37.4%4.29%	54.6%1.38%	40.6%3.54%	40.2%3.63%	37.2%3.87%	58.0%1.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	84.9%0.26%	65.7%5.03%		72.4%1.99%	72.9%3.05%	76.4%1.43%	65.1%3.59%	54.8%5.35%	52.0%7.73%	69.4%3.09%	56.8%6.73%	55.2%7.50%	52.8%7.45%	70.7%2.94%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	70.9%0.06%	42.1%1.01%	27.6%1.99%		53.0%0.57%	53.3%0.20%	42.3%0.65%	33.6%1.02%	29.0%1.73%	39.4%0.49%	31.0%1.33%	32.2%1.31%	27.8%1.46%	47.1%0.48%
Denver Broncos	68.4%0.10%	39.2%1.54%	27.1%3.05%	47.0%0.57%		62.3%0.41%	39.8%0.93%	32.6%1.42%	28.4%2.74%	47.2%0.98%	31.4%2.12%	29.9%2.50%	30.3%2.10%	47.6%0.67%
Houston Oilers	51.7%0.03%	32.4%0.71%	23.6%1.43%	46.7%0.20%	37.7%0.41%		32.5%0.48%	27.1%0.68%	20.7%1.27%	34.8%0.34%	24.8%0.96%	23.7%1.02%	24.4%1.12%	41.6%0.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	68.8%0.09%	50.2%1.69%	34.9%3.59%	57.7%0.65%	60.2%0.93%	67.5%0.48%		39.8%1.51%	37.2%3.18%	54.4%1.04%	39.7%2.38%	40.2%2.68%	35.8%2.53%	57.2%0.94%
Los Angeles Raiders	78.5%0.14%	58.8%2.77%	45.2%5.35%	66.4%1.02%	67.4%1.42%	72.9%0.68%	60.2%1.51%		45.9%4.69%	65.5%1.53%	49.2%3.68%	48.4%4.11%	47.7%3.73%	64.4%1.30%
Miami Dolphins	81.0%0.22%	62.6%4.29%	48.0%7.73%	71.0%1.73%	71.6%2.74%	79.3%1.27%	62.8%3.18%	54.1%4.69%		68.5%2.49%	53.8%5.77%	53.1%6.33%	50.0%6.49%	68.7%2.59%
New England Patriots	73.9%0.05%	45.4%1.38%	30.6%3.09%	60.6%0.49%	52.8%0.98%	65.2%0.34%	45.6%1.04%	34.5%1.53%	31.5%2.49%		34.3%1.92%	35.2%2.37%	32.8%2.38%	51.8%0.76%
New York Jets	76.3%0.14%	59.4%3.54%	43.2%6.73%	69.0%1.33%	68.6%2.12%	75.2%0.96%	60.3%2.38%	50.8%3.68%	46.2%5.77%	65.7%1.92%		48.8%5.26%	46.9%5.34%	66.1%2.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.7%0.22%	59.8%3.63%	44.8%7.50%	67.8%1.31%	70.1%2.50%	76.3%1.02%	59.8%2.68%	51.6%4.11%	46.9%6.33%	64.8%2.37%	51.2%5.26%		46.8%5.91%	65.6%2.17%
San Diego Chargers	91.1%0.19%	62.8%3.87%	47.2%7.45%	72.2%1.46%	69.7%2.10%	75.6%1.12%	64.2%2.53%	52.3%3.73%	50.0%6.49%	67.2%2.38%	53.1%5.34%	53.2%5.91%		69.2%2.22%
Seattle Seahawks	79.2%0.07%	42.0%1.40%	29.3%2.94%	52.9%0.48%	52.4%0.67%	58.4%0.33%	42.8%0.94%	35.6%1.30%	31.3%2.59%	48.2%0.76%	33.9%2.02%	34.4%2.17%	30.8%2.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		57.7%1.61%	33.5%5.31%	47.0%3.36%	42.5%3.25%	64.0%1.01%	51.7%2.03%	61.3%0.61%	46.7%2.31%	44.4%2.86%	39.8%4.43%	52.9%1.44%	48.5%2.09%	37.5%4.00%
Chicago Bears	42.3%1.61%		28.3%2.96%	38.6%1.46%	33.9%1.44%	57.5%0.50%	41.2%0.73%	59.7%0.32%	35.8%1.17%	36.0%1.33%	35.1%2.36%	46.3%0.64%	42.2%0.82%	31.0%2.05%
Dallas Cowboys	66.5%5.31%	71.7%2.96%		63.0%5.63%	59.3%5.54%	75.4%2.25%	68.4%3.30%	75.7%1.44%	64.1%4.43%	62.1%4.96%	59.1%7.37%	69.1%2.66%	67.1%3.62%	53.2%6.67%
Detroit Lions	53.0%3.36%	61.4%1.46%	37.0%5.63%		48.5%2.89%	64.8%1.11%	54.5%1.73%	63.2%0.77%	51.1%2.44%	50.7%2.92%	45.6%4.69%	58.0%1.46%	52.5%1.84%	41.0%4.01%
Green Bay Packers	57.5%3.25%	66.1%1.44%	40.7%5.54%	51.5%2.89%		67.1%1.14%	58.1%1.63%	64.9%0.81%	54.4%2.24%	51.8%2.97%	48.0%4.83%	61.6%1.44%	56.7%1.93%	43.0%3.84%
Los Angeles Rams	36.0%1.01%	42.5%0.50%	24.6%2.25%	35.2%1.11%	32.9%1.14%		40.0%0.63%	50.2%0.22%	36.4%0.91%	33.5%1.03%	30.5%1.51%	43.7%0.55%	36.7%0.79%	28.0%1.44%
Minnesota Vikings	48.3%2.03%	58.8%0.73%	31.6%3.30%	45.5%1.73%	41.9%1.63%	60.0%0.63%		62.1%0.43%	43.4%1.38%	45.2%1.62%	41.6%2.79%	53.5%0.81%	47.1%0.95%	36.7%2.23%
New Orleans Saints	38.7%0.61%	40.3%0.32%	24.3%1.44%	36.8%0.77%	35.1%0.81%	49.8%0.22%	37.9%0.43%		36.5%0.58%	34.7%0.68%	32.9%1.01%	42.0%0.30%	37.0%0.42%	27.7%0.91%
New York Giants	53.3%2.31%	64.2%1.17%	35.9%4.43%	48.9%2.44%	45.6%2.24%	63.6%0.91%	56.6%1.38%	63.5%0.58%		47.3%1.76%	43.8%3.60%	55.6%0.98%	53.2%1.54%	39.1%2.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	55.6%2.86%	64.0%1.33%	37.9%4.96%	49.3%2.92%	48.2%2.97%	66.5%1.03%	54.8%1.62%	65.3%0.68%	52.7%1.76%		45.6%4.23%	58.0%1.10%	55.7%1.78%	40.0%3.19%
San Francisco 49ers	60.2%4.43%	64.9%2.36%	40.9%7.37%	54.4%4.69%	52.0%4.83%	69.5%1.51%	58.4%2.79%	67.1%1.01%	56.2%3.60%	54.4%4.23%		63.6%2.04%	58.5%3.01%	45.5%5.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	47.1%1.44%	53.7%0.64%	30.9%2.66%	42.0%1.46%	38.4%1.44%	56.3%0.55%	46.5%0.81%	58.0%0.30%	44.4%0.98%	42.0%1.10%	36.4%2.04%		47.2%0.94%	32.7%1.56%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51.5%2.09%	57.8%0.82%	32.9%3.62%	47.5%1.84%	43.3%1.93%	63.3%0.79%	52.9%0.95%	63.0%0.42%	46.8%1.54%	44.3%1.78%	41.5%3.01%	52.8%0.94%		37.7%2.34%
Washington Redskins	62.5%4.00%	69.0%2.05%	46.8%6.67%	59.0%4.01%	57.0%3.84%	72.0%1.44%	63.3%2.23%	72.3%0.91%	60.9%2.69%	60.0%3.19%	54.5%5.41%	67.3%1.56%	62.3%2.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		40.0%0.02%	14.1%0.06%	44.4%<0.01%	31.6%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	53.3%0.01%	21.7%0.02%	14.3%0.05%	27.3%0.01%	18.2%0.02%	18.0%0.05%	18.8%0.05%	28.6%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	60.0%0.02%		37.4%2.69%	60.3%0.29%	63.4%0.45%	65.5%0.21%	44.8%0.60%	42.9%1.23%	39.0%1.83%	52.4%0.44%	42.4%1.42%	41.6%1.76%	39.6%1.91%	56.8%0.44%
Cincinnati Bengals	85.9%0.06%	62.6%2.69%		72.8%0.71%	70.6%1.33%	75.5%0.37%	64.1%1.83%	56.1%3.28%	52.4%6.26%	67.6%1.35%	55.3%4.62%	54.5%4.78%	52.4%5.26%	68.9%1.18%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	55.6%<0.01%	39.7%0.29%	27.2%0.71%		46.5%0.14%	59.1%0.02%	38.4%0.23%	32.6%0.36%	30.3%0.64%	43.5%0.17%	30.7%0.49%	31.9%0.45%	28.7%0.55%	41.2%0.14%
Denver Broncos	68.4%0.02%	36.6%0.45%	29.4%1.33%	53.5%0.14%		53.2%0.06%	43.0%0.29%	30.1%0.52%	29.2%0.98%	49.3%0.22%	33.0%0.76%	31.8%0.84%	30.3%0.71%	45.6%0.15%
Houston Oilers	100.0%<0.01%	34.5%0.21%	24.5%0.37%	40.9%0.02%	46.8%0.06%		43.2%0.12%	25.2%0.24%	25.7%0.39%	35.5%0.08%	27.2%0.28%	23.8%0.28%	22.4%0.33%	45.0%0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	46.7%0.01%	55.2%0.60%	35.9%1.83%	61.6%0.23%	57.0%0.29%	56.8%0.12%		40.1%0.74%	34.6%1.47%	59.6%0.38%	41.3%1.03%	39.6%1.05%	38.1%1.19%	49.6%0.28%
Los Angeles Raiders	78.3%0.02%	57.1%1.23%	43.9%3.28%	67.4%0.36%	69.9%0.52%	74.8%0.24%	59.9%0.74%		47.8%2.77%	60.4%0.66%	50.2%2.11%	50.1%2.32%	48.7%1.98%	68.0%0.53%
Miami Dolphins	85.7%0.05%	61.0%1.83%	47.6%6.26%	69.7%0.64%	70.8%0.98%	74.3%0.39%	65.4%1.47%	52.2%2.77%		67.1%1.01%	53.2%3.24%	52.8%4.27%	49.3%4.54%	65.5%1.06%
New England Patriots	72.7%0.01%	47.6%0.44%	32.4%1.35%	56.5%0.17%	50.7%0.22%	64.5%0.08%	40.4%0.38%	39.6%0.66%	32.9%1.01%		38.5%0.74%	39.2%0.81%	31.8%1.01%	46.2%0.21%
New York Jets	81.8%0.02%	57.6%1.42%	44.7%4.62%	69.3%0.49%	67.0%0.76%	72.8%0.28%	58.7%1.03%	49.8%2.11%	46.8%3.24%	61.5%0.74%		48.9%3.12%	46.1%3.27%	65.3%0.74%
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.0%0.05%	58.4%1.76%	45.5%4.78%	68.1%0.45%	68.2%0.84%	76.2%0.28%	60.4%1.05%	49.9%2.32%	47.2%4.27%	60.8%0.81%	51.1%3.12%		48.2%3.72%	64.8%0.76%
San Diego Chargers	81.2%0.05%	60.4%1.91%	47.6%5.26%	71.3%0.55%	69.7%0.71%	77.6%0.33%	61.9%1.19%	51.3%1.98%	50.7%4.54%	68.2%1.01%	53.9%3.27%	51.8%3.72%		66.9%0.90%
Seattle Seahawks	71.4%0.01%	43.2%0.44%	31.1%1.18%	58.8%0.14%	54.4%0.15%	55.0%0.06%	50.4%0.28%	32.0%0.53%	34.5%1.06%	53.8%0.21%	34.7%0.74%	35.2%0.76%	33.1%0.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		54.5%0.45%	33.4%3.43%	49.1%1.34%	43.2%1.35%	56.0%0.27%	51.0%0.63%	57.4%0.18%	46.5%0.95%	45.5%1.22%	41.5%1.92%	50.5%0.51%	51.5%0.79%	37.8%2.08%
Chicago Bears	45.5%0.45%		30.0%1.29%	39.9%0.45%	35.5%0.57%	61.9%0.13%	41.3%0.23%	50.0%0.09%	38.2%0.45%	38.3%0.52%	37.7%0.85%	51.8%0.20%	40.7%0.32%	29.9%0.81%
Dallas Cowboys	66.6%3.43%	70.0%1.29%		61.9%3.87%	59.5%3.90%	74.1%0.90%	66.7%1.75%	73.6%0.55%	62.2%2.58%	61.9%3.04%	56.4%6.06%	65.4%1.18%	64.7%2.00%	53.7%5.08%
Detroit Lions	50.9%1.34%	60.1%0.45%	38.1%3.87%		47.4%1.29%	67.3%0.31%	57.6%0.70%	63.9%0.25%	54.5%1.01%	49.6%1.41%	45.6%2.39%	54.3%0.56%	54.2%0.75%	40.0%2.30%
Green Bay Packers	56.8%1.35%	64.5%0.57%	40.5%3.90%	52.6%1.29%		59.0%0.37%	57.3%0.71%	65.2%0.26%	55.1%1.15%	51.6%1.50%	47.4%2.46%	58.1%0.64%	56.3%0.86%	43.7%2.44%
Los Angeles Rams	44.0%0.27%	38.1%0.13%	25.9%0.90%	32.7%0.31%	41.0%0.37%		42.2%0.19%	45.0%0.06%	34.6%0.32%	35.9%0.34%	35.2%0.49%	51.4%0.14%	40.4%0.21%	27.6%0.59%
Minnesota Vikings	49.0%0.63%	58.7%0.23%	33.3%1.75%	42.4%0.70%	42.7%0.71%	57.8%0.19%		53.8%0.12%	42.4%0.64%	45.1%0.70%	41.3%1.17%	52.2%0.30%	44.6%0.35%	36.6%1.26%
New Orleans Saints	42.6%0.18%	50.0%0.09%	26.4%0.55%	36.1%0.25%	34.8%0.26%	55.0%0.06%	46.2%0.12%		36.9%0.17%	41.1%0.22%	33.1%0.37%	42.4%0.09%	39.4%0.14%	30.4%0.37%
New York Giants	53.5%0.95%	61.8%0.45%	37.8%2.58%	45.5%1.01%	44.9%1.15%	65.4%0.32%	57.6%0.64%	63.1%0.17%		49.6%0.85%	44.9%1.77%	55.6%0.39%	53.3%0.69%	39.8%1.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	54.5%1.22%	61.7%0.52%	38.1%3.04%	50.4%1.41%	48.4%1.50%	64.1%0.34%	54.9%0.70%	58.9%0.22%	50.4%0.85%		45.6%2.11%	57.8%0.48%	53.1%0.81%	40.8%1.76%
San Francisco 49ers	58.5%1.92%	62.3%0.85%	43.6%6.06%	54.4%2.39%	52.6%2.46%	64.8%0.49%	58.7%1.17%	66.9%0.37%	55.1%1.77%	54.4%2.11%		56.9%0.86%	58.4%1.36%	45.4%3.69%
St. Louis Cardinals	49.5%0.51%	48.2%0.20%	34.6%1.18%	45.7%0.56%	41.9%0.64%	48.6%0.14%	47.8%0.30%	57.6%0.09%	44.4%0.39%	42.2%0.48%	43.1%0.86%		41.9%0.37%	32.9%0.75%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.5%0.79%	59.3%0.32%	35.3%2.00%	45.8%0.75%	43.7%0.86%	59.6%0.21%	55.4%0.35%	60.6%0.14%	46.7%0.69%	46.9%0.81%	41.6%1.36%	58.1%0.37%		36.0%1.20%
Washington Redskins	62.2%2.08%	70.1%0.81%	46.3%5.08%	60.0%2.30%	56.3%2.44%	72.4%0.59%	63.4%1.26%	69.6%0.37%	60.2%1.39%	59.2%1.76%	54.6%3.69%	67.1%0.75%	64.0%1.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	21.4%0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%		16.7%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	50.6%0.41%	65.6%0.12%	36.0%1.26%	51.5%0.44%	48.8%0.44%	62.0%0.08%	54.0%0.20%	53.3%0.06%	45.3%0.33%	52.8%0.40%	43.9%0.78%	54.2%0.15%	46.6%0.24%	41.9%0.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	64.5%1.25%	73.5%0.46%	50.6%4.19%	58.5%1.53%	60.0%1.72%	78.4%0.29%	65.1%0.72%	77.6%0.17%	61.1%1.12%	61.4%1.35%	58.9%2.57%	68.8%0.54%	61.8%0.87%	53.5%2.59%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	52.4%0.08%	50.0%0.03%	33.9%0.30%	44.0%0.11%	35.8%0.12%	50.0%0.02%	43.1%0.06%	42.9%0.01%	47.0%0.08%	44.8%0.09%	31.7%0.19%	54.0%0.05%	38.7%0.06%	32.4%0.17%
Denver Broncos	44.8%0.13%	39.7%0.06%	33.0%0.49%	36.7%0.15%	41.3%0.18%	64.3%0.03%	30.4%0.07%	65.2%0.02%	38.6%0.14%	39.6%0.15%	37.1%0.28%	39.0%0.06%	41.4%0.09%	33.6%0.30%
Houston Oilers	45.7%0.05%	30.0%0.02%	20.1%0.16%	28.2%0.04%	23.5%0.05%	61.5%0.01%	31.8%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	39.4%0.03%	36.2%0.05%	28.8%0.11%	33.3%0.02%	37.0%0.03%	18.9%0.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	55.2%0.23%	61.1%0.11%	40.2%0.84%	48.3%0.29%	47.2%0.33%	60.0%0.06%	49.6%0.13%	58.8%0.03%	51.8%0.22%	51.4%0.29%	42.7%0.53%	42.7%0.10%	45.4%0.16%	40.0%0.51%
Los Angeles Raiders	59.9%0.54%	63.9%0.22%	44.4%1.89%	58.0%0.70%	55.1%0.82%	70.1%0.13%	62.0%0.35%	70.2%0.09%	57.6%0.51%	54.6%0.60%	51.2%1.12%	61.8%0.20%	59.7%0.38%	47.3%1.09%
Miami Dolphins	63.9%1.00%	66.9%0.36%	49.6%3.35%	58.0%1.26%	57.0%1.35%	75.4%0.24%	64.2%0.53%	71.7%0.17%	59.7%0.89%	62.0%1.11%	55.1%2.05%	66.7%0.40%	60.0%0.68%	51.0%2.17%
New England Patriots	49.0%0.15%	57.9%0.06%	33.9%0.60%	48.3%0.18%	45.1%0.23%	59.5%0.04%	43.0%0.09%	58.1%0.03%	41.2%0.15%	48.3%0.20%	44.4%0.36%	57.4%0.07%	43.0%0.12%	37.9%0.39%
New York Jets	60.0%0.71%	68.8%0.26%	47.2%2.44%	57.0%0.82%	55.0%0.91%	66.9%0.18%	61.0%0.40%	67.8%0.12%	59.9%0.69%	60.5%0.84%	55.5%1.46%	55.5%0.28%	57.5%0.45%	47.9%1.56%
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.9%0.84%	68.2%0.31%	47.8%2.71%	59.9%0.97%	53.2%1.14%	72.9%0.17%	60.7%0.47%	70.5%0.13%	55.8%0.69%	55.7%0.90%	53.5%1.64%	60.1%0.36%	56.0%0.53%	50.0%1.68%
San Diego Chargers	65.1%0.90%	68.9%0.29%	49.9%3.06%	60.3%1.09%	57.0%1.21%	69.0%0.21%	62.2%0.52%	71.3%0.12%	57.6%0.78%	58.9%0.97%	55.9%1.78%	69.1%0.40%	62.0%0.60%	53.4%1.95%
Seattle Seahawks	48.7%0.15%	46.6%0.06%	33.3%0.52%	37.1%0.20%	37.2%0.19%	43.3%0.03%	37.6%0.08%	60.6%0.03%	42.4%0.12%	38.8%0.19%	39.4%0.32%	55.7%0.06%	45.7%0.09%	32.5%0.31%
Atlanta Falcons															66.7%<0.01%	49.4%0.41%	35.5%1.25%	47.6%0.08%	55.2%0.13%	54.3%0.05%	44.8%0.23%	40.1%0.54%	36.1%1.00%	51.0%0.15%	40.0%0.71%	40.1%0.84%	34.9%0.90%	51.3%0.15%
Chicago Bears															100.0%<0.01%	34.4%0.12%	26.5%0.46%	50.0%0.03%	60.3%0.06%	70.0%0.02%	38.9%0.11%	36.1%0.22%	33.1%0.36%	42.1%0.06%	31.2%0.26%	31.8%0.31%	31.1%0.29%	53.4%0.06%
Dallas Cowboys															78.6%0.01%	64.0%1.26%	49.4%4.19%	66.1%0.30%	67.0%0.49%	79.9%0.16%	59.8%0.84%	55.6%1.89%	50.4%3.35%	66.1%0.60%	52.8%2.44%	52.2%2.71%	50.1%3.06%	66.7%0.52%
Detroit Lions															71.4%<0.01%	48.5%0.44%	41.5%1.53%	56.0%0.11%	63.3%0.15%	71.8%0.04%	51.7%0.29%	42.0%0.70%	42.0%1.26%	51.7%0.18%	43.0%0.82%	40.1%0.97%	39.7%1.09%	62.9%0.20%
Green Bay Packers															83.3%<0.01%	51.2%0.44%	40.0%1.72%	64.2%0.12%	58.7%0.18%	76.5%0.05%	52.8%0.33%	44.9%0.82%	43.0%1.35%	54.9%0.23%	45.0%0.91%	46.8%1.14%	43.0%1.21%	62.8%0.19%
Los Angeles Rams															50.0%<0.01%	38.0%0.08%	21.6%0.29%	50.0%0.02%	35.7%0.03%	38.5%0.01%	40.0%0.06%	29.9%0.13%	24.6%0.24%	40.5%0.04%	33.1%0.18%	27.1%0.17%	31.0%0.21%	56.7%0.03%
Minnesota Vikings															71.4%<0.01%	46.0%0.20%	34.9%0.72%	56.9%0.06%	69.6%0.07%	68.2%0.02%	50.4%0.13%	38.0%0.35%	35.8%0.53%	57.0%0.09%	39.0%0.40%	39.3%0.47%	37.8%0.52%	62.4%0.08%
New Orleans Saints																46.7%0.06%	22.4%0.17%	57.1%0.01%	34.8%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	41.2%0.03%	29.8%0.09%	28.3%0.17%	41.9%0.03%	32.2%0.12%	29.5%0.13%	28.7%0.12%	39.4%0.03%
New York Giants															83.3%<0.01%	54.7%0.33%	38.9%1.12%	53.0%0.08%	61.4%0.14%	60.6%0.03%	48.2%0.22%	42.4%0.51%	40.3%0.89%	58.8%0.15%	40.1%0.69%	44.2%0.69%	42.4%0.78%	57.6%0.12%
Philadelphia Eagles															60.0%<0.01%	47.2%0.40%	38.6%1.35%	55.2%0.09%	60.4%0.15%	63.8%0.05%	48.6%0.29%	45.4%0.60%	38.0%1.11%	51.7%0.20%	39.5%0.84%	44.3%0.90%	41.1%0.97%	61.2%0.19%
San Francisco 49ers															100.0%<0.01%	56.1%0.78%	41.1%2.57%	68.3%0.19%	62.9%0.28%	71.2%0.11%	57.3%0.53%	48.8%1.12%	44.9%2.05%	55.6%0.36%	44.5%1.46%	46.5%1.64%	44.1%1.78%	60.6%0.32%
St. Louis Cardinals															100.0%<0.01%	45.8%0.15%	31.2%0.54%	46.0%0.05%	61.0%0.06%	66.7%0.02%	57.3%0.10%	38.2%0.20%	33.3%0.40%	42.6%0.07%	44.5%0.28%	39.9%0.36%	30.9%0.40%	44.3%0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															100.0%<0.01%	53.4%0.24%	38.2%0.87%	61.3%0.06%	58.6%0.09%	63.0%0.03%	54.6%0.16%	40.3%0.38%	40.0%0.68%	57.0%0.12%	42.5%0.45%	44.0%0.53%	38.0%0.60%	54.3%0.09%
Washington Redskins															83.3%0.01%	58.1%0.76%	46.5%2.59%	67.6%0.17%	66.4%0.30%	81.1%0.09%	60.0%0.51%	52.7%1.09%	49.0%2.17%	62.1%0.39%	52.1%1.56%	50.0%1.68%	46.6%1.95%	67.5%0.31%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	69.14%	45.31%	27.24%	14.28%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Washington Redskins	63.59%	42.55%	24.39%	12.02%	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	69.98%	40.62%	21.06%	11.46%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	72.34%	40.80%	20.73%	10.79%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Cincinnati Bengals	59.56%	32.46%	18.24%	10.50%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	48.38%	24.53%	12.88%	7.19%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.62%	24.73%	12.28%	6.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	64.99%	32.34%	15.32%	6.75%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Jets	40.44%	19.19%	9.17%	4.85%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	54.05%	21.48%	8.17%	3.18%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	36.41%	13.92%	6.93%	3.11%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	45.95%	18.52%	7.18%	2.81%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.86%	12.25%	5.87%	2.40%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Cardinals	35.01%	13.63%	4.90%	1.72%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	30.02%	10.16%	3.44%	1.39%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.66%	7.51%	2.20%	0.79%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals						59.6%100.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			27.7%100.00%
Los Angeles Raiders		72.3%100.00%
Miami Dolphins					70.0%100.00%
New England Patriots				30.0%100.00%
New York Jets	40.4%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers								51.6%100.00%
San Diego Chargers							48.4%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons					45.9%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys							69.1%100.00%
Detroit Lions								36.4%100.00%
Green Bay Packers						65.0%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	54.1%100.00%
St. Louis Cardinals				35.0%100.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		30.9%100.00%
Washington Redskins			63.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals		74.4%5.02%		48.7%30.14%			58.6%12.55%	56.5%11.84%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.6%5.02%			27.6%19.34%			27.5%1.70%	26.2%1.60%
Los Angeles Raiders					65.3%21.70%	53.6%20.50%	53.3%15.59%	50.4%14.55%
Miami Dolphins	51.3%30.14%	72.4%19.34%					56.2%10.56%	52.6%9.93%
New England Patriots			34.7%21.70%			31.9%3.31%	32.8%2.61%	29.9%2.41%
New York Jets			46.4%20.50%		68.1%3.31%		46.0%8.60%	43.2%8.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.4%12.55%	72.5%1.70%	46.7%15.59%	43.8%10.56%	67.2%2.61%	54.0%8.60%
San Diego Chargers	43.5%11.84%	73.8%1.60%	49.6%14.55%	47.4%9.93%	70.1%2.41%	56.8%8.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.4%6.99%	51.2%1.85%	39.0%13.39%		56.8%7.18%	53.3%3.25%	33.2%13.29%
Dallas Cowboys	69.6%6.99%		65.0%25.29%	63.6%28.65%	70.4%8.21%
Detroit Lions	48.8%1.85%	35.0%25.29%		43.6%7.14%	50.1%2.12%
Green Bay Packers	61.0%13.39%	36.4%28.65%	56.4%7.14%		61.5%15.82%
Minnesota Vikings		29.6%8.21%	49.9%2.12%	38.5%15.82%		56.6%8.65%	50.5%3.89%	32.8%15.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	43.2%7.18%				43.4%8.65%		51.2%3.98%	31.2%15.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	46.7%3.25%				49.5%3.89%	48.8%3.98%		34.8%19.74%
Washington Redskins	66.8%13.29%				67.2%15.37%	68.8%15.20%	65.2%19.74%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals		73.9%1.84%	51.2%12.33%	49.7%4.85%	69.2%3.81%		58.5%4.90%	56.2%4.73%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	26.1%1.84%				42.2%0.69%	28.8%1.57%	29.0%1.68%	28.1%1.73%
Los Angeles Raiders	48.8%12.33%			51.7%14.04%		54.2%2.54%	53.3%5.94%	49.0%5.95%
Miami Dolphins	50.3%4.85%		48.3%14.04%			55.9%7.73%	54.7%6.96%	52.7%7.04%
New England Patriots	30.8%3.81%	57.8%0.69%				36.4%1.34%	33.6%2.18%	30.2%2.14%
New York Jets		71.2%1.57%	45.8%2.54%	44.1%7.73%	63.6%1.34%		45.5%3.06%	41.9%2.95%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.5%4.90%	71.0%1.68%	46.7%5.94%	45.3%6.96%	66.4%2.18%	54.5%3.06%
San Diego Chargers	43.8%4.73%	71.9%1.73%	51.0%5.95%	47.3%7.04%	69.8%2.14%	58.1%2.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.6%6.18%	49.1%2.55%	38.4%2.61%		57.8%1.13%	51.4%1.88%	33.9%4.15%
Dallas Cowboys	69.4%6.18%			63.5%6.64%	69.6%7.20%	71.7%5.78%		49.1%19.50%
Detroit Lions	50.9%2.55%			44.3%3.48%	51.4%3.02%	55.8%2.38%	48.7%2.49%
Green Bay Packers	61.6%2.61%	36.5%6.64%	55.7%3.48%		60.2%2.88%		56.5%4.61%	41.3%12.11%
Minnesota Vikings		30.4%7.20%	48.6%3.02%	39.8%2.88%		54.6%1.34%	49.6%2.20%	31.9%4.83%
St. Louis Cardinals	42.2%1.13%	28.3%5.78%	44.2%2.38%		45.4%1.34%		47.4%1.06%	32.2%1.95%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.6%1.88%		51.3%2.49%	43.5%4.61%	50.4%2.20%	52.6%1.06%
Washington Redskins	66.1%4.15%	50.9%19.50%		58.7%12.11%	68.1%4.83%	67.8%1.95%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals	64.9%1.29%	52.2%5.01%	59.9%1.29%	59.0%2.73%	65.3%1.47%	67.5%0.85%	60.3%1.09%	54.8%4.52%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.0%0.15%	31.0%0.60%	36.8%0.15%	38.3%0.31%	43.5%0.17%	39.0%0.10%	40.8%0.14%	35.1%0.57%
Los Angeles Raiders	59.4%1.47%	45.8%5.68%	53.3%1.49%	54.4%3.26%	61.3%1.70%	64.0%1.01%	55.8%1.16%	48.6%4.96%
Miami Dolphins	61.7%1.47%	48.2%5.70%	56.9%1.44%	55.9%3.19%	62.2%1.73%	66.2%1.08%	60.9%1.26%	51.0%5.19%
New England Patriots	46.0%0.25%	33.0%0.91%	42.8%0.22%	44.7%0.57%	47.0%0.25%	54.9%0.16%	45.2%0.21%	37.8%0.85%
New York Jets	57.6%0.68%	46.2%2.49%	53.5%0.65%	55.2%1.41%	61.2%0.78%	67.1%0.42%	60.7%0.50%	50.0%2.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.1%0.95%	48.2%3.38%	55.7%0.79%	57.3%1.89%	61.6%1.01%	67.1%0.60%	59.6%0.76%	52.4%2.91%
San Diego Chargers	62.6%0.92%	49.8%3.47%	55.3%0.90%	59.8%1.96%	58.8%1.06%	64.5%0.66%	65.4%0.75%	53.2%3.16%
Atlanta Falcons									35.1%1.29%	63.0%0.15%	40.6%1.47%	38.3%1.47%	54.0%0.25%	42.4%0.68%	35.9%0.95%	37.4%0.92%
Dallas Cowboys									47.8%5.01%	69.0%0.60%	54.2%5.68%	51.8%5.70%	67.0%0.91%	53.8%2.49%	51.8%3.38%	50.2%3.47%
Detroit Lions									40.1%1.29%	63.2%0.15%	46.7%1.49%	43.1%1.44%	57.2%0.22%	46.5%0.65%	44.3%0.79%	44.7%0.90%
Green Bay Packers									41.0%2.73%	61.7%0.31%	45.6%3.26%	44.1%3.19%	55.3%0.57%	44.8%1.41%	42.7%1.89%	40.2%1.96%
Minnesota Vikings									34.7%1.47%	56.5%0.17%	38.7%1.70%	37.8%1.73%	53.0%0.25%	38.8%0.78%	38.4%1.01%	41.2%1.06%
St. Louis Cardinals									32.5%0.85%	61.0%0.10%	36.0%1.01%	33.8%1.08%	45.1%0.16%	32.9%0.42%	32.9%0.60%	35.5%0.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers									39.7%1.09%	59.2%0.14%	44.2%1.16%	39.1%1.26%	54.8%0.21%	39.3%0.50%	40.4%0.76%	34.6%0.75%
Washington Redskins									45.2%4.52%	64.9%0.57%	51.4%4.96%	49.0%5.19%	62.2%0.85%	50.0%2.23%	47.6%2.91%	46.8%3.16%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 14.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.14%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.21%

Win Prob

63.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

35.17%

Win Prob

49.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

21.55%

Win Prob

54.15%

Washington Redskins 12.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

30.26%

Win Prob

65.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.69%

Win Prob

50.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

21.20%

Win Prob

51.36%

Miami Dolphins 11.46% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.98%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

38.06%

Win Prob

51.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

32.20%

Win Prob

48.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

23.99%

Win Prob

48.23%

Los Angeles Raiders 10.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.34%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

34.73%

Win Prob

65.31%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

34.99%

Win Prob

51.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

24.14%

Win Prob

45.85%

Cincinnati Bengals 10.50% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

45.22%

Win Prob

48.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

34.62%

Win Prob

51.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

24.91%

Win Prob

52.17%

San Diego Chargers 7.19% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.38%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

29.44%

Win Prob

49.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

25.83%

Win Prob

47.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

24.02%

Win Prob

49.80%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.76% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.62%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

29.43%

Win Prob

46.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

25.69%

Win Prob

45.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

24.06%

Win Prob

48.16%

Green Bay Packers 6.75% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.99%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

32.26%

Win Prob

36.41%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

32.65%

Win Prob

41.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

22.05%

Win Prob

45.60%

New York Jets 4.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

49.56%

Win Prob

46.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

37.19%

Win Prob

44.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

23.70%

Win Prob

46.18%

Minnesota Vikings 3.18% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.05%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.36%

Win Prob

38.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

26.80%

Win Prob

30.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

20.70%

Win Prob

38.73%

Detroit Lions 3.11% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

63.51%

Win Prob

34.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

22.39%

Win Prob

51.37%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

22.28%

Win Prob

46.67%

Atlanta Falcons 2.81% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.95%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.23%

Win Prob

39.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

26.38%

Win Prob

30.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

21.22%

Win Prob

40.61%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.40% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.86%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

56.07%

Win Prob

34.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

34.24%

Win Prob

43.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

21.35%

Win Prob

44.21%

St. Louis Cardinals 1.72% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.01%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

34.75%

Win Prob

31.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

33.37%

Win Prob

28.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

21.37%

Win Prob

33.82%

New England Patriots 1.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.02%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

74.10%

Win Prob

34.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

34.15%

Win Prob

30.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

23.17%

Win Prob

37.78%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 0.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.66%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

71.06%

Win Prob

27.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

22.23%

Win Prob

28.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

25.51%

Win Prob

35.08%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1982-09-12	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1516.51	1513.25	45.61%	53.40%	+7.46	1-0
1982-09-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-38	1523.97	1491.18	58.49%	40.53%	-28.27	1-1
1982-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-17	1495.70	1450.03	60.27%	38.76%	+15.82	2-1
1982-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1511.52	1450.61	62.34%	36.71%	-10.65	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1500.87	1481.48	47.91%	51.08%	+13.35	3-2
1982-12-12	New Orleans Saints	W 35-0	1514.22	1427.98	65.68%	33.41%	+19.57	4-2
1982-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-7	1533.79	1552.77	42.46%	56.56%	+17.64	5-2
1982-12-26	Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1551.43	1513.31	59.23%	39.80%	-32.53	5-3
1983-01-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-35	1518.90	1387.78	63.60%	35.47%	-33.76	5-4
1982-09-12	New England Patriots	L 13-24	1382.42	1459.55	42.83%	56.18%	-14.05	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1368.37	1560.17	21.53%	77.76%	-4.26	0-2
1982-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 0-37	1364.11	1526.77	24.47%	74.75%	-14.73	0-3
1982-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-20	1349.38	1530.28	22.60%	76.67%	-9.99	0-4
1982-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1339.39	1594.60	21.28%	78.01%	-3.65	0-5
1982-12-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-13	1335.74	1476.75	26.83%	72.35%	-4.60	0-6
1982-12-19	Green Bay Packers	T 20-20	1331.14	1514.33	28.98%	70.17%	+1.01	0-6
1982-12-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 26-44	1332.15	1601.16	15.00%	84.45%	-6.28	0-7
1983-01-02	Miami Dolphins	L 7-34	1325.87	1577.90	21.58%	77.70%	-11.09	0-8
1982-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-9	1523.63	1518.62	54.58%	44.43%	+9.83	1-0
1982-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-22	1533.46	1485.30	60.61%	38.43%	+3.80	2-0
1982-11-21	Miami Dolphins	L 7-9	1537.26	1564.43	49.97%	49.03%	-6.98	2-1
1982-11-28	Baltimore Colts	W 20-0	1530.28	1349.38	76.67%	22.60%	+10.00	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-33	1540.28	1524.56	47.39%	51.61%	-16.23	3-2
1982-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-0	1524.05	1568.66	47.46%	51.54%	+18.35	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1542.40	1477.32	54.47%	44.53%	-5.37	4-3
1982-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1537.03	1560.86	41.78%	57.24%	-17.04	4-4
1983-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 19-30	1519.99	1454.86	54.48%	44.53%	-17.84	4-5
1982-09-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1471.77	1522.75	38.05%	61.00%	-9.96	0-1
1982-09-19	New Orleans Saints	L 0-10	1461.81	1384.27	64.55%	34.53%	-20.12	0-2
1982-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1441.69	1542.31	39.57%	59.47%	+10.16	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1451.85	1463.95	43.43%	55.59%	-22.73	1-3
1982-12-05	New England Patriots	W 26-13	1429.12	1454.88	50.17%	48.83%	+17.40	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-20	1446.52	1474.19	41.24%	57.78%	-9.99	2-4
1982-12-19	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-10	1436.53	1462.07	50.20%	48.80%	-8.59	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-26	1427.94	1422.10	45.97%	53.03%	+14.80	3-5
1983-01-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-26	1442.74	1489.62	38.60%	60.44%	-6.61	3-6
1982-09-12	Houston Oilers	W 27-6	1568.36	1468.86	67.37%	31.74%	+14.40	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-26	1582.76	1549.75	49.87%	49.13%	-12.07	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 18-14	1570.69	1542.07	49.24%	49.76%	+9.83	2-1
1982-11-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-17	1580.52	1529.32	61.03%	38.01%	+14.08	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1594.60	1339.39	78.01%	21.28%	+3.64	4-1
1982-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-10	1598.24	1439.65	74.31%	24.91%	+8.89	5-1
1982-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-50	1607.13	1581.89	48.76%	50.24%	-19.27	5-2
1982-12-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1587.86	1460.94	70.72%	28.44%	+10.53	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-27	1598.39	1384.22	73.74%	25.47%	+7.13	7-2
1982-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-7	1447.32	1469.56	42.00%	57.02%	+21.05	1-0
1982-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-24	1468.37	1534.46	44.39%	54.62%	-7.60	1-1
1982-11-21	New England Patriots	W 10-7	1460.77	1449.56	55.46%	43.55%	+7.46	2-1
1982-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-31	1468.23	1579.47	30.30%	68.83%	-12.37	2-2
1982-12-05	San Diego Chargers	L 13-30	1455.86	1555.28	39.73%	59.30%	-16.21	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1439.65	1598.24	24.91%	74.31%	-8.89	2-4
1982-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-9	1430.76	1550.31	37.00%	62.05%	+6.12	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1436.88	1395.83	51.03%	47.97%	+11.61	4-4
1983-01-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-37	1448.49	1560.89	30.17%	68.97%	-11.94	4-5
1982-09-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-36	1571.18	1533.24	59.21%	39.82%	-16.52	0-1
1982-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-7	1554.66	1481.86	55.57%	43.44%	+17.72	1-1
1982-11-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1572.38	1475.20	67.08%	32.03%	+7.09	2-1
1982-11-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1579.47	1468.23	68.83%	30.30%	+12.37	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1591.84	1554.28	50.53%	48.47%	+17.92	4-1
1982-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-7	1609.76	1426.90	70.13%	29.02%	+15.73	5-1
1982-12-19	New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1625.49	1408.41	80.15%	19.19%	+7.10	6-1
1982-12-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1632.59	1509.64	70.24%	28.91%	-13.84	6-2
1983-01-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-31	1618.75	1469.61	65.95%	33.14%	-13.00	6-3
1982-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 3-23	1523.14	1544.76	50.76%	48.23%	-22.43	0-1
1982-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1500.71	1561.81	45.10%	53.90%	+9.22	1-1
1982-11-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-17	1509.93	1442.32	63.24%	35.82%	-16.49	1-2
1982-11-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-30	1493.44	1543.33	38.19%	60.85%	-11.96	1-3
1982-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-34	1481.48	1500.87	51.08%	47.91%	-13.34	1-4
1982-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1468.14	1438.12	49.44%	49.56%	+8.48	2-4
1982-12-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-37	1476.62	1463.28	55.76%	43.25%	-25.22	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-27	1451.40	1542.07	32.85%	66.25%	-13.41	2-6
1983-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 11-13	1437.99	1450.40	43.38%	55.63%	-6.06	2-7
1982-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 17-10	1522.75	1471.77	61.00%	38.05%	+9.96	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 19-14	1532.71	1459.62	55.61%	43.40%	+9.60	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1542.31	1441.69	59.47%	39.57%	-10.16	2-1
1982-11-25	New York Giants	L 6-13	1532.15	1475.41	61.78%	37.27%	-16.12	2-2
1982-12-06	New York Jets	L 13-28	1516.03	1547.60	49.33%	49.67%	-18.87	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-10	1497.16	1540.78	39.04%	59.99%	+26.46	3-3
1982-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-34	1523.62	1481.35	59.81%	39.23%	-10.22	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-23	1513.40	1482.70	49.54%	49.46%	-6.92	3-5
1983-01-02	Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1506.48	1545.84	48.21%	50.79%	+8.69	4-5
1982-09-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-23	1482.68	1474.70	55.00%	44.01%	+15.07	1-0
1982-09-20	@ New York Giants	W 27-19	1497.75	1505.79	44.00%	55.01%	+15.36	2-0
1982-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1513.11	1481.50	58.33%	40.70%	+17.55	3-0
1982-11-28	@ New York Jets	L 13-15	1530.66	1541.50	43.60%	55.41%	-6.10	3-1
1982-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 33-21	1524.56	1540.28	51.61%	47.39%	+16.22	4-1
1982-12-12	Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1540.78	1497.16	59.99%	39.04%	-26.45	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	T 20-20	1514.33	1331.14	70.17%	28.98%	-1.02	4-2
1982-12-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1513.31	1551.43	39.80%	59.23%	+32.53	5-2
1983-01-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1545.84	1506.48	50.79%	48.21%	-8.69	5-3
1982-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-27	1468.86	1568.36	31.74%	67.37%	-14.40	0-1
1982-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-21	1454.46	1448.51	54.71%	44.30%	+6.20	1-1
1982-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1460.66	1561.82	39.49%	59.54%	-14.62	1-2
1982-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 21-29	1446.04	1442.10	45.70%	53.30%	-12.78	1-3
1982-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1433.26	1491.53	37.06%	61.99%	-6.36	1-4
1982-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1426.90	1609.76	29.02%	70.13%	-15.73	1-5
1982-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-35	1411.17	1494.30	33.81%	65.28%	-15.34	1-6
1982-12-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-20	1395.83	1436.88	47.97%	51.03%	-11.61	1-7
1983-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-35	1384.22	1598.39	25.47%	73.74%	-7.13	1-8
1982-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1518.62	1523.63	44.43%	54.58%	-9.82	0-1
1982-09-19	San Diego Chargers	W 19-12	1508.80	1567.18	45.49%	53.51%	+13.98	1-1
1982-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-27	1522.78	1404.39	61.89%	37.16%	-19.30	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1503.48	1434.21	55.07%	43.94%	-13.31	1-3
1982-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-35	1490.17	1552.07	36.58%	62.48%	-16.59	1-4
1982-12-12	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-21	1473.58	1524.23	46.59%	52.41%	-10.30	1-5
1982-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 37-16	1463.28	1476.62	43.25%	55.76%	+25.21	2-5
1982-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-26	1488.49	1535.12	47.17%	51.83%	-16.80	2-6
1983-01-02	New York Jets	W 37-13	1471.69	1596.96	36.24%	62.82%	+30.33	3-6
1982-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1474.81	1578.19	31.26%	67.86%	+16.37	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-14	1491.18	1523.97	40.53%	58.49%	+28.27	2-0
1982-11-22	San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1519.45	1553.20	49.02%	49.98%	+9.87	3-0
1982-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1529.32	1580.52	38.01%	61.03%	-14.07	3-1
1982-12-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-23	1515.25	1483.18	58.39%	40.63%	+8.98	4-1
1982-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-16	1524.23	1473.58	52.41%	46.59%	+10.30	5-1
1982-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1534.53	1429.64	68.04%	31.08%	+7.54	6-1
1982-12-26	Denver Broncos	W 27-10	1542.07	1451.40	66.25%	32.85%	+13.40	7-1
1983-01-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-34	1555.47	1607.44	37.91%	61.13%	+15.95	8-1
1982-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-35	1474.70	1482.68	44.01%	55.00%	-15.08	0-1
1982-09-19	Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1459.62	1532.71	43.40%	55.61%	-9.59	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1450.03	1495.70	38.76%	60.27%	-15.82	0-3
1982-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1434.21	1503.48	43.94%	55.07%	+13.31	1-3
1982-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1447.52	1553.76	38.80%	60.24%	-9.40	1-4
1982-12-12	Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1438.12	1468.14	49.56%	49.44%	-8.48	1-5
1982-12-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-37	1429.64	1534.53	31.08%	68.04%	-7.54	1-6
1982-12-26	Chicago Bears	L 26-34	1422.10	1427.94	53.03%	45.97%	-14.80	1-7
1983-01-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1407.30	1551.93	26.43%	72.76%	+7.16	2-7
1982-09-12	@ New York Jets	W 45-28	1539.13	1523.76	47.34%	51.66%	+21.04	1-0
1982-09-19	Baltimore Colts	W 24-20	1560.17	1368.37	77.76%	21.53%	+4.26	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 9-7	1564.43	1537.26	49.03%	49.97%	+6.98	3-0
1982-11-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-23	1571.41	1468.11	59.83%	39.20%	-14.46	3-1
1982-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-14	1556.95	1486.68	63.59%	35.47%	+9.93	4-1
1982-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 0-3	1566.88	1437.48	63.37%	35.70%	-10.82	4-2
1982-12-18	New York Jets	W 20-19	1556.06	1579.80	50.46%	48.54%	+4.80	5-2
1982-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 27-10	1560.86	1537.03	57.24%	41.78%	+17.04	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-7	1577.90	1325.87	77.70%	21.58%	+11.09	7-2
1982-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1472.40	1502.05	49.61%	49.39%	+12.90	1-0
1982-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 22-23	1485.30	1533.46	38.43%	60.61%	-3.80	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-26	1481.50	1513.11	40.70%	58.33%	-17.55	1-2
1982-11-28	Chicago Bears	W 35-7	1463.95	1451.85	55.59%	43.43%	+22.73	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-22	1486.68	1556.95	35.47%	63.59%	-9.93	2-3
1982-12-12	Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1476.75	1335.74	72.35%	26.83%	+4.60	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1481.35	1523.62	39.23%	59.81%	+10.21	4-3
1982-12-26	New York Jets	L 14-42	1491.56	1575.00	41.95%	57.07%	-21.95	4-4
1983-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-27	1469.61	1618.75	33.14%	65.95%	+12.99	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1459.55	1382.42	56.18%	42.83%	+14.05	1-0
1982-09-19	New York Jets	L 7-31	1473.60	1502.73	49.68%	49.31%	-24.04	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-10	1449.56	1460.77	43.55%	55.46%	-7.46	1-2
1982-11-28	Houston Oilers	W 29-21	1442.10	1446.04	53.30%	45.70%	+12.78	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-26	1454.88	1429.12	48.83%	50.17%	-17.40	2-3
1982-12-12	Miami Dolphins	W 3-0	1437.48	1566.88	35.70%	63.37%	+10.82	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-0	1448.30	1484.19	40.11%	58.92%	+23.25	4-3
1982-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-37	1471.55	1544.19	35.16%	63.91%	-16.69	4-4
1983-01-02	Buffalo Bills	W 30-19	1454.86	1519.99	44.53%	54.48%	+17.83	5-4
1982-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-21	1400.78	1465.36	44.61%	54.40%	-16.51	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1384.27	1461.81	34.53%	64.55%	+20.12	1-1
1982-11-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1404.39	1522.78	37.16%	61.89%	+19.30	2-1
1982-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1423.69	1566.13	26.67%	72.52%	+12.37	3-1
1982-12-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1436.06	1482.56	47.19%	51.81%	-8.08	3-2
1982-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-35	1427.98	1514.22	33.41%	65.68%	-19.57	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1408.41	1625.49	19.19%	80.15%	-7.09	3-4
1982-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1401.32	1550.28	33.17%	65.93%	-13.54	3-5
1983-01-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-6	1387.78	1518.90	35.47%	63.60%	+33.76	4-5
1982-09-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-16	1513.25	1516.51	53.40%	45.61%	-7.46	0-1
1982-09-20	Green Bay Packers	L 19-27	1505.79	1497.75	55.01%	44.00%	-15.35	0-2
1982-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1490.44	1530.70	48.08%	50.92%	-15.03	0-3
1982-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-6	1475.41	1532.15	37.27%	61.78%	+16.12	1-3
1982-12-05	Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1491.53	1433.26	61.99%	37.06%	+6.35	2-3
1982-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-7	1497.88	1513.00	51.70%	47.30%	+18.70	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-15	1516.58	1546.22	40.97%	58.05%	-4.05	3-4
1982-12-26	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-24	1512.53	1470.66	51.15%	47.85%	-8.75	3-5
1983-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-24	1503.78	1523.48	42.36%	56.66%	+7.91	4-5
1982-09-12	Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1523.76	1539.13	51.66%	47.34%	-21.03	0-1
1982-09-19	@ New England Patriots	W 31-7	1502.73	1473.60	49.31%	49.68%	+24.04	1-1
1982-11-21	Baltimore Colts	W 37-0	1526.77	1364.11	74.75%	24.47%	+14.73	2-1
1982-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 15-13	1541.50	1530.66	55.41%	43.60%	+6.10	3-1
1982-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-13	1547.60	1516.03	49.67%	49.33%	+18.88	4-1
1982-12-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-17	1566.48	1490.64	64.33%	34.75%	+13.32	5-1
1982-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-20	1579.80	1556.06	48.54%	50.46%	-4.80	5-2
1982-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-14	1575.00	1491.56	57.07%	41.95%	+21.96	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-37	1596.96	1471.69	62.82%	36.24%	-30.34	6-3
1982-09-12	Washington Redskins	L 34-37	1544.58	1506.64	59.21%	39.82%	-10.12	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1534.46	1468.37	54.62%	44.39%	+7.61	1-1
1982-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-18	1542.07	1570.69	49.76%	49.24%	-9.83	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1532.24	1545.73	43.23%	55.78%	-8.56	1-3
1982-12-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1523.68	1461.26	62.55%	36.51%	-10.68	1-4
1982-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1513.00	1497.88	47.30%	51.70%	-18.70	1-5
1982-12-19	Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1494.30	1411.17	65.28%	33.81%	+15.34	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1509.64	1632.59	28.91%	70.24%	+13.84	3-5
1983-01-02	New York Giants	L 24-26	1523.48	1503.78	56.66%	42.36%	-7.91	3-6
1982-09-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 36-28	1533.24	1571.18	39.82%	59.21%	+16.51	1-0
1982-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-20	1549.75	1582.76	49.13%	49.87%	+12.07	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1561.82	1460.66	59.54%	39.49%	+14.62	3-0
1982-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-16	1576.44	1458.81	61.79%	37.26%	-24.37	3-1
1982-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-14	1552.07	1490.17	62.48%	36.58%	+16.59	4-1
1982-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-13	1568.66	1524.05	51.54%	47.46%	-18.35	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-10	1550.31	1430.76	62.05%	37.00%	-6.12	4-3
1982-12-26	New England Patriots	W 37-14	1544.19	1471.55	63.91%	35.16%	+16.70	5-3
1983-01-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1560.89	1448.49	68.97%	30.17%	+11.94	6-3
1982-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-3	1544.76	1523.14	48.23%	50.76%	+22.42	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 12-19	1567.18	1508.80	53.51%	45.49%	-13.98	1-1
1982-11-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-28	1553.20	1519.45	49.98%	49.02%	-9.87	1-2
1982-11-28	Denver Broncos	W 30-20	1543.33	1493.44	60.85%	38.19%	+11.95	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1555.28	1455.86	59.30%	39.73%	+16.21	3-2
1982-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-37	1571.49	1563.17	46.33%	52.67%	+10.40	4-2
1982-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 50-34	1581.89	1607.13	50.24%	48.76%	+19.27	5-2
1982-12-26	Baltimore Colts	W 44-26	1601.16	1332.15	84.45%	15.00%	+6.28	6-2
1983-01-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 34-41	1607.44	1555.47	61.13%	37.91%	-15.95	6-3
1982-09-12	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-23	1578.19	1474.81	67.86%	31.26%	-16.38	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1561.81	1500.71	53.90%	45.10%	-9.21	0-2
1982-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-20	1552.60	1464.15	57.77%	41.25%	+13.53	1-2
1982-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1566.13	1423.69	72.52%	26.67%	-12.37	1-3
1982-12-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-24	1553.76	1447.52	60.24%	38.80%	+9.41	2-3
1982-12-11	San Diego Chargers	L 37-41	1563.17	1571.49	52.67%	46.33%	-10.40	2-4
1982-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-17	1552.77	1533.79	56.56%	42.46%	-17.65	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-13	1535.12	1488.49	51.83%	47.17%	+16.81	3-5
1983-01-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-21	1551.93	1407.30	72.76%	26.43%	-7.17	3-6
1982-09-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1469.56	1447.32	57.02%	42.00%	-21.05	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-23	1448.51	1454.46	44.30%	54.71%	-6.19	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1442.32	1509.93	35.82%	63.24%	+16.49	1-2
1982-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-0	1458.81	1576.44	37.26%	61.79%	+24.37	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 23-28	1483.18	1515.25	40.63%	58.39%	-8.99	2-3
1982-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1474.19	1446.52	57.78%	41.24%	+10.00	3-3
1982-12-19	New England Patriots	L 0-16	1484.19	1448.30	58.92%	40.11%	-23.25	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1460.94	1587.86	28.44%	70.72%	-10.54	3-5
1983-01-02	Denver Broncos	W 13-11	1450.40	1437.99	55.63%	43.38%	+6.07	4-5
1982-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1465.36	1400.78	54.40%	44.61%	+16.50	1-0
1982-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1481.86	1554.66	43.44%	55.57%	-17.71	1-1
1982-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-31	1464.15	1552.60	41.25%	57.77%	-13.54	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1450.61	1511.52	36.71%	62.34%	+10.65	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1461.26	1523.68	36.51%	62.55%	+10.68	3-2
1982-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 7-12	1471.94	1536.36	44.63%	54.38%	-9.87	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-7	1462.07	1436.53	48.80%	50.20%	+8.59	4-3
1982-12-26	New York Giants	W 24-21	1470.66	1512.53	47.85%	51.15%	+8.75	5-3
1983-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-28	1479.41	1563.82	33.64%	65.44%	-17.62	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1502.05	1472.40	49.39%	49.61%	-12.91	0-1
1982-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 13-21	1489.14	1516.76	49.90%	49.10%	-13.94	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-14	1475.20	1572.38	32.03%	67.08%	-7.09	0-3
1982-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1468.11	1571.41	39.20%	59.83%	+14.45	1-3
1982-12-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 13-10	1482.56	1436.06	51.81%	47.19%	+8.08	2-3
1982-12-12	@ New York Jets	L 17-32	1490.64	1566.48	34.75%	64.33%	-13.32	2-4
1982-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 24-23	1477.32	1542.40	44.53%	54.47%	+5.38	3-4
1982-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 23-21	1482.70	1513.40	49.46%	49.54%	+6.92	4-4
1983-01-02	Chicago Bears	W 26-23	1489.62	1442.74	60.44%	38.60%	+6.61	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-34	1506.64	1544.58	39.82%	59.21%	+10.12	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-13	1516.76	1489.14	49.10%	49.90%	+13.94	2-0
1982-11-21	@ New York Giants	W 27-17	1530.70	1490.44	50.92%	48.08%	+15.03	3-0
1982-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1545.73	1532.24	55.78%	43.23%	+8.55	4-0
1982-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1554.28	1591.84	48.47%	50.53%	-17.92	4-1
1982-12-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 12-7	1536.36	1471.94	54.38%	44.63%	+9.86	5-1
1982-12-19	New York Giants	W 15-14	1546.22	1516.58	58.05%	40.97%	+4.06	6-1
1982-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1550.28	1401.32	65.93%	33.17%	+13.54	7-1
1983-01-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-0	1563.82	1479.41	65.44%	33.64%	+17.62	8-1

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-01-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-30	1485.14	1482.60	46.00%	54.00%	-11.01	0-1
1983-01-09	New York Jets	L 17-44	1605.52	1566.62	59.84%	40.16%	-30.41	0-1
1983-01-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-27	1436.55	1571.42	27.86%	72.14%	-11.24	0-1
1983-01-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-17	1605.75	1496.23	69.11%	30.89%	+10.89	1-0
1983-01-16	Green Bay Packers	W 37-26	1616.64	1554.38	63.03%	36.97%	+12.00	2-0
1983-01-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1628.64	1610.39	48.25%	51.75%	-17.66	2-1
1983-01-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1515.17	1581.44	36.43%	63.57%	-17.46	0-1
1983-01-08	St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-16	1537.15	1461.79	64.77%	35.23%	+17.23	1-0
1983-01-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 26-37	1554.38	1616.64	36.97%	63.03%	-11.99	1-1
1983-01-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-10	1571.42	1436.55	72.14%	27.86%	+11.24	1-0
1983-01-15	New York Jets	L 14-17	1582.66	1597.03	52.31%	47.69%	-8.86	1-1
1983-01-08	New England Patriots	W 28-13	1588.99	1472.69	69.94%	30.06%	+11.39	1-0
1983-01-16	San Diego Chargers	W 34-13	1600.38	1600.25	54.38%	45.62%	+20.44	2-0
1983-01-23	New York Jets	W 14-0	1620.82	1605.89	56.49%	43.51%	+15.92	3-0
1983-01-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1636.74	1628.04	51.25%	48.75%	-15.85	3-1
1983-01-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1482.60	1485.14	54.00%	46.00%	+11.02	1-0
1983-01-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-21	1493.62	1598.89	31.41%	68.59%	-11.49	1-1
1983-01-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-28	1472.69	1588.99	30.06%	69.94%	-11.38	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-17	1566.62	1605.52	40.16%	59.84%	+30.41	1-0
1983-01-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-14	1597.03	1582.66	47.69%	52.31%	+8.86	2-0
1983-01-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-14	1605.89	1620.82	43.51%	56.49%	-15.92	2-1
1983-01-09	San Diego Chargers	L 28-31	1572.83	1591.49	51.69%	48.31%	-8.75	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1591.49	1572.83	48.31%	51.69%	+8.76	1-0
1983-01-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1600.25	1600.38	45.62%	54.38%	-20.45	1-1
1983-01-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-41	1461.79	1537.15	35.23%	64.77%	-17.23	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-30	1496.23	1605.75	30.89%	69.11%	-10.89	0-1
1983-01-08	Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1581.44	1515.17	63.57%	36.43%	+17.45	1-0
1983-01-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1598.89	1493.62	68.59%	31.41%	+11.50	2-0
1983-01-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1610.39	1628.64	51.75%	48.25%	+17.65	3-0
1983-01-30	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1628.04	1636.74	48.75%	51.25%	+15.86	4-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1983-01-02	26.43%	Los Angeles Rams	1407.30	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1551.93	20
2	1982-11-28	26.67%	New Orleans Saints	1423.69	23	@ San Francisco 49ers	1566.13	20
3	1982-12-26	28.91%	Philadelphia Eagles	1509.64	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1632.59	20
4	1982-09-12	31.26%	Los Angeles Raiders	1474.81	23	@ San Francisco 49ers	1578.19	17
5	1983-01-03	33.14%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1469.61	31	Dallas Cowboys	1618.75	27
6	1982-09-19	34.53%	New Orleans Saints	1384.27	10	@ Chicago Bears	1461.81	0
7	1983-01-02	35.47%	@ New Orleans Saints	1387.78	35	Atlanta Falcons	1518.90	6
8	1982-12-12	35.70%	@ New England Patriots	1437.48	3	Miami Dolphins	1566.88	0
9	1982-11-21	35.82%	Seattle Seahawks	1442.32	17	@ Denver Broncos	1509.93	10
10	1983-01-02	36.24%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1471.69	37	New York Jets	1596.96	13
11	1982-12-05	36.51%	St. Louis Cardinals	1461.26	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1523.68	20
12	1982-11-28	36.71%	St. Louis Cardinals	1450.61	23	@ Atlanta Falcons	1511.52	20
13	1982-12-19	37.00%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1430.76	10	Pittsburgh Steelers	1550.31	9
14	1982-11-21	37.16%	@ New Orleans Saints	1404.39	27	Kansas City Chiefs	1522.78	17
15	1982-11-28	37.26%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1458.81	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1576.44	0
16	1982-11-25	37.27%	New York Giants	1475.41	13	@ Detroit Lions	1532.15	6
17	1983-01-02	37.91%	Los Angeles Raiders	1555.47	41	@ San Diego Chargers	1607.44	34
18	1982-12-12	39.04%	Detroit Lions	1497.16	30	@ Green Bay Packers	1540.78	10
19	1982-11-29	39.20%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1468.11	23	Miami Dolphins	1571.41	17
20	1982-12-19	39.23%	Minnesota Vikings	1481.35	34	@ Detroit Lions	1523.62	31
21	1982-11-21	39.57%	@ Chicago Bears	1441.69	20	Detroit Lions	1542.31	17
22	1982-12-26	39.80%	Green Bay Packers	1513.31	38	@ Atlanta Falcons	1551.43	7
23	1982-09-12	39.82%	Washington Redskins	1506.64	37	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1544.58	34
24	1982-09-13	39.82%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1533.24	36	@ Dallas Cowboys	1571.18	28
25	1982-12-19	40.11%	New England Patriots	1448.30	16	@ Seattle Seahawks	1484.19	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1983-01-02	33.76	@ New Orleans Saints	35	1387.78	35.47%	Atlanta Falcons	6	1518.90	63.60%
2	1982-12-26	32.53	Green Bay Packers	38	1513.31	39.80%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1551.43	59.23%
3	1983-01-09 *	30.41	New York Jets	44	1566.62	40.16%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	17	1605.52	59.84%
4	1983-01-02	30.34	@ Kansas City Chiefs	37	1471.69	36.24%	New York Jets	13	1596.96	62.82%
5	1982-09-19	28.27	Los Angeles Raiders	38	1491.18	40.53%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1523.97	58.49%
6	1982-12-12	26.46	Detroit Lions	30	1497.16	39.04%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1540.78	59.99%
7	1982-12-19	25.22	Kansas City Chiefs	37	1463.28	43.25%	@ Denver Broncos	16	1476.62	55.76%
8	1982-11-28	24.37	@ Seattle Seahawks	16	1458.81	37.26%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1576.44	61.79%
9	1982-09-19	24.04	New York Jets	31	1502.73	49.31%	@ New England Patriots	7	1473.60	49.68%
10	1982-12-19	23.25	New England Patriots	16	1448.30	40.11%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1484.19	58.92%
11	1982-11-28	22.73	@ Minnesota Vikings	35	1463.95	55.59%	Chicago Bears	7	1451.85	43.43%
12	1982-09-12	22.43	San Diego Chargers	23	1544.76	48.23%	@ Denver Broncos	3	1523.14	50.76%
13	1982-12-26	21.96	New York Jets	42	1575.00	57.07%	@ Minnesota Vikings	14	1491.56	41.95%
14	1982-09-12	21.05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1447.32	42.00%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1469.56	57.02%
15	1982-09-12	21.04	Miami Dolphins	45	1539.13	47.34%	@ New York Jets	28	1523.76	51.66%
16	1983-01-16 *	20.45	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1600.38	54.38%	San Diego Chargers	13	1600.25	45.62%
17	1982-09-19	20.12	New Orleans Saints	10	1384.27	34.53%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1461.81	64.55%
18	1982-12-12	19.57	@ Atlanta Falcons	35	1514.22	65.68%	New Orleans Saints	0	1427.98	33.41%
19	1982-11-21	19.30	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1404.39	37.16%	Kansas City Chiefs	17	1522.78	61.89%
20	1982-12-20	19.27	@ San Diego Chargers	50	1581.89	50.24%	Cincinnati Bengals	34	1607.13	48.76%
21	1982-12-06	18.88	New York Jets	28	1547.60	49.67%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1516.03	49.33%
22	1982-12-11	18.70	@ New York Giants	23	1497.88	51.70%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1513.00	47.30%
23	1982-12-12	18.35	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1524.05	47.46%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1568.66	51.54%
24	1982-12-05	17.92	Dallas Cowboys	24	1591.84	50.53%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1554.28	48.47%
25	1983-01-02	17.84	@ New England Patriots	30	1454.86	44.53%	Buffalo Bills	19	1519.99	54.48%