1981 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

San Francisco 49ers

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cincinnati Bengals

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

4.24 wins above expected

13 wins · 8.76 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New England Patriots

5.73 wins below expected

2 wins · 7.73 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	12	4	.750	-	421	304	+117	8.66	+3.34
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	4	356	297	+59	8.95	-0.95
3	Houston Oilers	7	9	.438	5	281	355	-74	7.92	-0.92
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	11	.312	7	276	375	-99	7.07	-2.07

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	4	1	.719	-	345	275	+70	9.02	+2.48
2	New York Jets Playoffs	10	5	1	.656	1	355	287	+68	8.26	+2.24
3	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	1.5	311	276	+35	8.92	+1.08
4	Baltimore Colts	2	14	0	.125	9.5	259	533	-274	5.00	-3.00
5	New England Patriots	2	14	0	.125	9.5	322	370	-48	7.73	-5.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	10	6	.625	-	478	390	+88	9.61	+0.39
2	Denver Broncos	10	6	.625	-	321	289	+32	8.80	+1.20
3	Kansas City Chiefs	9	7	.562	1	343	290	+53	8.52	+0.48
4	Oakland Raiders	7	9	.438	3	273	343	-70	8.37	-1.37
5	Seattle Seahawks	6	10	.375	4	322	388	-66	6.22	-0.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	9	7	.562	-	315	268	+47	7.68	+1.32
2	Green Bay Packers	8	8	.500	1	324	361	-37	6.82	+1.18
3	Detroit Lions	8	8	.500	1	397	322	+75	8.39	-0.39
4	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	2	325	369	-44	8.13	-1.13
5	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	3	253	324	-71	6.52	-0.52

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	-	367	277	+90	10.23	+1.77
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	368	221	+147	10.38	-0.38
3	New York Giants Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	295	257	+38	7.18	+1.82
4	Washington Redskins	8	8	.500	4	347	349	-2	7.01	+0.99
5	St. Louis Cardinals	7	9	.438	5	315	408	-93	6.90	+0.10

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	-	357	250	+107	8.76	+4.24
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	426	355	+71	9.22	-2.22
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	10	.375	7	303	351	-48	8.27	-2.27
4	New Orleans Saints	4	12	.250	9	207	378	-171	5.47	-1.47

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Buffalo Bills 31

New York Jets 27

Dec 27

Divisional Round

San Diego Chargers 41

Miami Dolphins 38

Jan 2

Cincinnati Bengals 28

Buffalo Bills 21

Jan 3

Conference Championship

Cincinnati Bengals 27

San Diego Chargers 7

Jan 10

NFC

Wild Card Round

New York Giants 27

Philadelphia Eagles 21

Dec 27

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

Jan 2

San Francisco 49ers 38

New York Giants 24

Jan 3

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 28

Dallas Cowboys 27

Jan 10

Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers 26

Cincinnati Bengals 21

Jan 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1633	13	8.76	+4.24	99.63%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1631	12	10.23	+1.77	90.12%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1622	12	8.66	+3.34	97.98%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1595	10	10.38	-0.38	52.66%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1593	11.5	9.02	+2.48	91.27%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1589	10	9.61	+0.39	68.26%	1	6	8	10	11	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1562	10.5	8.26	+2.24	88.97%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1556	8	8.95	-0.95	41.08%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1545	10	8.80	+1.20	81.66%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1539	10	8.92	+1.08	80.13%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1538	8	8.39	-0.39	52.93%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1533	9	8.52	+0.48	70.22%	0	5	7	8	10	12	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1526	7	9.22	-2.22	18.79%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1522	9	7.68	+1.32	83.17%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1514	9	7.18	+1.82	89.66%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1512	8	7.01	+0.99	79.59%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1469	8	6.82	+1.18	81.86%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1455	7	8.37	-1.37	32.96%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1451	6	8.27	-2.27	17.97%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1449	7	8.13	-1.13	37.84%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1448	6	6.52	-0.52	50.99%	0	4	5	6	8	10	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1445	7	7.92	-0.92	42.15%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1442	6	6.22	-0.22	57.36%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1440	7	6.90	+0.10	63.43%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1400	5	7.07	-2.07	20.77%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1396	2	7.73	-5.73	0.25%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1323	4	5.47	-1.47	31.32%	0	3	4	5	7	9	13
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1273	2	5.00	-3.00	7.39%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (1.8 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-4 (2.0 exp.)	-
New York Jets	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	-	-
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	-
Seattle Seahawks	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	4-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	-	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.34%	1.56%	1.12%	0.67%	—	5.58%
7–13	0.89%	4.46%	6.25%	4.91%	1.56%	2.01%	0.45%	20.54%
14–20	1.34%	6.25%	7.14%	4.02%	4.69%	1.34%	0.89%	25.67%
21–27	1.56%	4.91%	4.02%	7.14%	2.68%	1.79%	1.12%	23.21%
28–34	1.12%	1.56%	4.69%	2.68%	4.46%	0.45%	0.45%	15.40%
35–41	0.67%	2.01%	1.34%	1.79%	0.45%	0.45%	—	6.70%
42+	—	0.45%	0.89%	1.12%	0.45%	—	—	2.90%
Total	5.58%	20.54%	25.67%	23.21%	15.40%	6.70%	2.90%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.67	20.67	+0.00
SD	10.14	10.14	14.95
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.62	22.19	+4.44
SD	8.99	9.42	13.41
CV	0.34	0.42	—
Max	41	37	+31
Min	13	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—	25.00%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.19	33.31	-17.12
SD	8.59	7.21	10.86
CV	0.53	0.22	—
Max	29	43	+2
Min	0	21	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	17.25	+2.19
SD	9.60	9.27	15.32
CV	0.49	0.54	—
Max	35	33	+32
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	43.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	20.25	-4.44
SD	8.21	9.73	12.45
CV	0.52	0.48	—
Max	35	48	+17
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.31	19.00	+7.31
SD	12.31	6.14	12.97
CV	0.47	0.32	—
Max	41	30	+27
Min	3	7	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	23.44	-6.19
SD	8.99	11.22	12.26
CV	0.52	0.48	—
Max	42	44	+14
Min	3	9	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	31.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.94	17.31	+5.62
SD	8.15	9.37	12.61
CV	0.36	0.54	—
Max	37	45	+24
Min	10	9	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	18.06	+2.00
SD	8.60	11.20	12.20
CV	0.43	0.62	—
Max	42	38	+18
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.81	20.12	+4.69
SD	10.37	9.74	15.44
CV	0.42	0.48	—
Max	48	33	+38
Min	10	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.25	22.56	-2.31
SD	11.40	9.13	16.38
CV	0.56	0.40	—
Max	35	37	+28
Min	3	7	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	22.19	-4.62
SD	7.95	9.56	12.18
CV	0.45	0.43	—
Max	35	38	+18
Min	6	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.44	18.12	+3.31
SD	9.80	10.91	13.43
CV	0.46	0.60	—
Max	40	42	+27
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.94	21.94	-3.00
SD	10.32	8.02	11.84
CV	0.54	0.37	—
Max	37	35	+17
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	17.19	+4.38
SD	6.50	9.97	9.24
CV	0.30	0.58	—
Max	31	33	+20
Min	13	6	-16

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.31	23.06	-2.75
SD	9.42	10.88	14.54
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	35	45	+17
Min	6	10	-38

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	23.12	-3.00
SD	9.19	6.68	10.71
CV	0.46	0.29	—
Max	38	35	+28
Min	3	10	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.94	23.62	-10.69
SD	7.39	8.53	13.42
CV	0.57	0.36	—
Max	27	41	+10
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	25.00%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	16.06	+2.38
SD	8.48	9.17	13.37
CV	0.46	0.57	—
Max	34	30	+32
Min	7	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	17.94	+4.25
SD	11.30	11.07	17.94
CV	0.51	0.62	—
Max	41	38	+27
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	21.44	-4.38
SD	12.32	11.20	16.03
CV	0.72	0.52	—
Max	36	55	+26
Min	0	9	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	43.75%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.00	13.81	+9.19
SD	12.60	7.77	16.59
CV	0.55	0.56	—
Max	52	35	+42
Min	10	0	-12

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	18.56	+3.69
SD	9.51	10.65	15.23
CV	0.43	0.57	—
Max	38	37	+28
Min	7	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	43.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.88	24.38	+5.50
SD	10.87	10.98	17.37
CV	0.36	0.45	—
Max	55	44	+34
Min	17	10	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	6.25%	56.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	15.62	+6.69
SD	8.55	8.59	11.36
CV	0.38	0.55	—
Max	45	34	+31
Min	12	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.12	24.25	-4.12
SD	11.71	9.32	15.37
CV	0.58	0.38	—
Max	44	40	+21
Min	0	3	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	37.50%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	25.50	-5.81
SD	10.96	13.92	20.40
CV	0.56	0.55	—
Max	40	52	+27
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.69	16.75	+2.94
SD	8.14	7.07	13.78
CV	0.41	0.42	—
Max	37	28	+34
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	12.50%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.69	21.81	-0.12
SD	11.11	9.70	14.75
CV	0.51	0.44	—
Max	42	40	+24
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.33	+0.3
Allowed	0.57	-0.3
Differential	0.71	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	13	8.76	+4.24
2	Cincinnati Bengals	12	8.66	+3.34
3	Miami Dolphins	11.5	9.02	+2.48
4	New York Jets	10.5	8.26	+2.24
5	New York Giants	9	7.18	+1.82

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	2	7.73	-5.73
2	Baltimore Colts	2	5.00	-3.00
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	8.27	-2.27
4	Atlanta Falcons	7	9.22	-2.22
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	7.07	-2.07

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	7	Sep 27 – Nov 8	1 in 87
2	Minnesota Vikings	5	Sep 20 – Oct 18	1 in 56
3	New York Jets	5	Nov 1 – Nov 29	1 in 25
4	Chicago Bears	3	Dec 6 – Dec 20	1 in 23
5	Cincinnati Bengals	5	Nov 1 – Nov 29	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New England Patriots	9	Oct 25 – Dec 20	1 in 422
2	Baltimore Colts	14	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 244
3	Minnesota Vikings	5	Nov 23 – Dec 20	1 in 51
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	Nov 8 – Dec 6	1 in 45
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 44

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.66%	28.20%	20.38%	12.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	32.02%	28.72%	23.37%	15.89%
Houston Oilers	19.20%	25.25%	29.17%	26.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.12%	17.83%	27.07%	44.98%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	34.31%	27.45%	20.70%	13.64%	3.89%
Buffalo Bills	32.13%	26.77%	21.46%	14.88%	4.76%
New York Jets	18.90%	23.64%	26.01%	23.47%	7.98%
New England Patriots	13.71%	19.27%	24.55%	29.25%	13.22%
Baltimore Colts	0.95%	2.86%	7.29%	18.76%	70.14%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	38.45%	25.86%	18.30%	12.17%	5.22%
Denver Broncos	22.64%	24.09%	22.74%	19.75%	10.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.89%	22.09%	23.56%	22.43%	13.02%
Oakland Raiders	17.35%	21.94%	23.79%	23.15%	13.76%
Seattle Seahawks	2.65%	6.03%	11.61%	22.50%	57.21%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	34.23%	25.11%	18.72%	13.49%	8.44%
Minnesota Vikings	27.67%	24.46%	20.63%	16.23%	11.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20.27%	22.14%	21.71%	19.71%	16.17%
Green Bay Packers	9.83%	15.06%	20.08%	24.98%	30.06%
Chicago Bears	8.00%	13.22%	18.86%	25.60%	34.32%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	46.63%	33.60%	12.80%	5.23%	1.73%
Dallas Cowboys	42.27%	35.11%	14.23%	6.17%	2.23%
New York Giants	3.99%	11.12%	25.46%	29.33%	30.11%
Washington Redskins	3.69%	10.44%	24.52%	29.85%	31.50%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.42%	9.73%	22.99%	29.43%	34.44%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	42.94%	30.51%	20.48%	6.08%
San Francisco 49ers	31.50%	33.06%	27.11%	8.33%
Los Angeles Rams	23.40%	29.88%	34.38%	12.34%
New Orleans Saints	2.16%	6.55%	18.04%	73.25%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
San Diego Chargers	18.85%	13.55%	11.39%	10.07%	8.46%	7.41%	6.69%	5.80%	4.94%	4.26%	3.39%	2.55%	1.83%	0.81%
Miami Dolphins	11.32%	11.40%	10.62%	9.78%	9.13%	8.51%	7.71%	7.21%	6.43%	5.53%	4.89%	3.69%	2.33%	1.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.87%	11.30%	11.02%	9.69%	9.05%	8.48%	7.72%	7.05%	6.56%	5.57%	4.78%	4.29%	2.65%	0.97%
Buffalo Bills	10.56%	10.65%	10.11%	9.35%	9.17%	8.53%	7.76%	7.42%	6.73%	5.74%	5.28%	4.13%	2.75%	1.81%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.57%	9.23%	9.67%	8.81%	8.66%	9.06%	8.03%	7.63%	7.70%	6.55%	5.67%	5.50%	3.46%	1.45%
Denver Broncos	9.63%	8.94%	8.74%	8.76%	8.48%	8.32%	8.10%	7.77%	7.24%	6.75%	6.09%	4.97%	4.10%	2.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.79%	7.47%	7.61%	8.36%	8.15%	7.89%	8.44%	8.12%	7.76%	7.80%	7.20%	5.81%	5.04%	2.57%
Oakland Raiders	6.72%	6.82%	7.38%	7.83%	8.09%	8.06%	8.40%	8.14%	8.06%	8.02%	7.56%	6.32%	5.73%	2.87%
New York Jets	5.32%	6.57%	7.04%	7.67%	8.13%	8.47%	8.30%	8.83%	8.55%	8.17%	7.80%	6.66%	4.97%	3.52%
Houston Oilers	4.22%	5.53%	6.05%	6.96%	7.67%	8.03%	8.17%	8.89%	9.21%	8.98%	8.37%	8.96%	6.18%	2.78%
New England Patriots	3.70%	4.63%	5.14%	5.90%	6.78%	7.20%	7.77%	8.28%	8.57%	9.18%	9.84%	9.29%	7.40%	6.32%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.71%	2.64%	3.40%	4.24%	4.91%	5.89%	6.84%	7.62%	8.94%	10.00%	11.58%	14.03%	11.46%	6.73%
Seattle Seahawks	0.66%	1.06%	1.46%	2.00%	2.51%	3.02%	4.33%	4.86%	6.08%	8.56%	10.21%	13.23%	22.24%	19.79%
Baltimore Colts	0.09%	0.21%	0.36%	0.58%	0.82%	1.14%	1.73%	2.38%	3.24%	4.88%	7.33%	10.59%	19.85%	46.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Philadelphia Eagles	29.61%	17.66%	13.43%	11.15%	7.94%	5.92%	4.46%	3.19%	2.35%	1.73%	1.18%	0.75%	0.46%	0.19%
Dallas Cowboys	26.45%	16.92%	13.54%	11.53%	8.51%	6.30%	4.95%	3.70%	2.73%	2.10%	1.53%	0.94%	0.55%	0.24%
Atlanta Falcons	11.74%	14.80%	12.68%	11.00%	10.18%	9.15%	7.27%	6.33%	5.63%	3.96%	2.93%	2.28%	1.37%	0.68%
San Francisco 49ers	7.70%	10.67%	10.82%	10.50%	10.42%	10.06%	8.62%	7.94%	7.47%	5.35%	3.94%	3.33%	2.11%	1.06%
Detroit Lions	5.75%	9.20%	10.26%	9.58%	9.57%	9.56%	8.06%	7.87%	7.15%	6.22%	5.83%	4.56%	3.60%	2.77%
Los Angeles Rams	5.25%	7.84%	8.25%	8.99%	9.72%	9.57%	9.19%	9.20%	9.11%	7.04%	5.61%	4.89%	3.39%	1.95%
Minnesota Vikings	4.47%	7.10%	8.82%	8.54%	9.04%	9.36%	8.48%	8.38%	7.85%	7.23%	6.87%	5.47%	4.65%	3.71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.83%	5.12%	6.58%	7.09%	7.87%	8.53%	8.30%	8.52%	8.62%	8.15%	8.19%	7.40%	6.79%	6.02%
New York Giants	1.63%	2.38%	3.25%	4.78%	5.45%	6.39%	8.44%	8.75%	8.87%	10.61%	10.17%	10.14%	10.30%	8.85%
Washington Redskins	1.49%	1.98%	2.92%	4.18%	5.03%	5.83%	8.14%	8.36%	9.16%	10.50%	10.84%	10.67%	10.75%	10.16%
Green Bay Packers	1.01%	2.31%	3.29%	4.08%	5.27%	6.07%	6.88%	7.76%	8.42%	9.43%	10.27%	10.47%	11.62%	13.11%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.31%	1.85%	2.70%	3.97%	4.72%	5.51%	7.49%	8.30%	8.82%	10.42%	11.02%	10.82%	11.72%	11.34%
Chicago Bears	0.56%	1.67%	2.59%	3.34%	4.42%	5.35%	6.35%	7.18%	8.01%	9.48%	11.05%	12.02%	13.15%	14.84%
New Orleans Saints	0.19%	0.49%	0.87%	1.27%	1.86%	2.39%	3.37%	4.52%	5.82%	7.75%	10.58%	16.25%	19.55%	25.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Philadelphia Eagles	17.79%	12.50%	9.45%	8.29%	6.80%	6.35%	5.32%	5.17%	3.78%	3.98%	2.97%	2.89%	2.25%	2.25%	1.65%	1.73%	1.18%	1.19%	0.96%	0.88%	0.69%	0.56%	0.43%	0.33%	0.26%	0.18%	0.12%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	15.86%	11.49%	9.27%	7.82%	7.01%	6.05%	5.63%	5.10%	4.14%	4.17%	3.29%	3.09%	2.45%	2.50%	1.93%	1.84%	1.47%	1.37%	1.11%	1.07%	0.83%	0.74%	0.54%	0.45%	0.33%	0.21%	0.15%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	9.34%	9.01%	7.46%	6.91%	6.28%	5.70%	5.72%	4.75%	4.51%	4.03%	4.26%	3.55%	3.60%	2.79%	3.07%	2.73%	2.76%	2.05%	2.10%	1.81%	1.83%	1.39%	1.20%	1.01%	0.89%	0.65%	0.42%	0.21%
Atlanta Falcons	6.47%	6.28%	7.04%	6.71%	6.09%	5.98%	5.23%	5.45%	4.87%	4.93%	4.18%	4.38%	3.81%	3.97%	3.10%	3.12%	2.74%	3.07%	2.18%	2.19%	1.65%	1.68%	1.36%	1.18%	0.88%	0.73%	0.45%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	5.32%	5.81%	5.93%	5.60%	5.64%	5.38%	5.40%	4.70%	4.96%	4.45%	4.64%	4.12%	4.14%	3.56%	3.91%	3.52%	3.27%	2.92%	2.79%	2.64%	2.42%	2.10%	1.80%	1.62%	1.27%	0.93%	0.72%	0.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.00%	5.67%	5.68%	5.71%	5.68%	5.47%	5.26%	4.78%	4.95%	4.45%	4.52%	3.88%	4.21%	3.76%	3.88%	3.27%	3.34%	2.95%	2.92%	2.61%	2.41%	2.20%	1.99%	1.81%	1.36%	1.18%	0.65%	0.40%
Buffalo Bills	5.06%	5.29%	5.65%	5.30%	5.49%	5.09%	4.98%	4.61%	4.99%	4.44%	4.57%	4.15%	4.09%	3.76%	3.96%	3.56%	3.52%	2.98%	2.89%	2.70%	2.66%	2.31%	2.03%	1.83%	1.49%	1.15%	0.92%	0.56%
San Francisco 49ers	3.81%	4.40%	4.96%	5.20%	4.98%	5.29%	4.75%	5.43%	4.88%	5.21%	4.37%	4.96%	4.29%	4.74%	3.72%	3.86%	3.52%	3.98%	3.00%	2.83%	2.25%	2.28%	1.97%	1.70%	1.30%	1.14%	0.76%	0.42%
Denver Broncos	4.38%	4.95%	4.68%	4.82%	4.83%	4.58%	4.92%	4.29%	4.54%	4.22%	4.90%	4.06%	4.21%	3.54%	4.01%	3.87%	3.97%	3.17%	3.37%	3.04%	3.09%	2.63%	2.50%	2.11%	2.07%	1.51%	1.05%	0.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.89%	4.51%	4.76%	4.65%	5.12%	4.71%	4.76%	4.35%	4.80%	4.32%	4.81%	4.19%	4.22%	3.90%	4.25%	3.58%	3.81%	3.51%	3.39%	3.14%	2.97%	2.57%	2.61%	2.30%	1.75%	1.58%	0.90%	0.66%
Detroit Lions	2.81%	3.35%	4.09%	4.38%	4.47%	4.88%	4.25%	5.10%	4.44%	4.76%	4.22%	4.75%	4.28%	4.42%	3.59%	4.00%	3.63%	4.06%	3.33%	3.28%	3.02%	3.20%	2.64%	2.43%	2.09%	1.97%	1.57%	1.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.26%	4.04%	3.98%	4.00%	4.22%	4.03%	4.76%	4.00%	4.40%	4.01%	4.61%	4.11%	4.48%	3.64%	4.48%	4.03%	4.35%	3.40%	3.86%	3.44%	3.71%	3.06%	2.94%	2.56%	2.46%	1.93%	1.39%	0.84%
Los Angeles Rams	2.46%	2.97%	3.48%	3.93%	3.73%	4.21%	4.05%	4.72%	4.37%	4.83%	4.22%	4.83%	4.45%	4.97%	4.03%	4.47%	4.01%	4.93%	3.77%	3.65%	3.09%	3.26%	2.78%	2.69%	1.99%	1.89%	1.37%	0.86%
Oakland Raiders	2.72%	3.47%	3.65%	3.64%	4.07%	3.93%	4.39%	3.91%	4.38%	3.96%	4.69%	4.00%	4.48%	3.77%	4.49%	4.02%	4.40%	3.53%	4.06%	3.62%	3.95%	3.27%	3.14%	2.78%	2.79%	2.29%	1.63%	0.97%
New York Jets	2.14%	2.91%	3.17%	3.56%	3.60%	3.95%	4.01%	4.03%	4.18%	4.39%	4.40%	4.40%	4.29%	4.15%	4.70%	4.45%	4.30%	4.02%	4.14%	3.88%	4.00%	3.40%	3.23%	2.99%	2.63%	2.08%	1.82%	1.21%
Minnesota Vikings	2.09%	2.70%	3.19%	3.54%	3.79%	4.30%	3.79%	4.48%	4.11%	4.65%	3.85%	4.71%	4.20%	4.75%	3.83%	4.21%	3.96%	4.30%	3.79%	3.85%	3.46%	3.67%	3.19%	2.95%	2.70%	2.39%	2.13%	1.42%
Houston Oilers	1.63%	2.27%	2.61%	3.00%	3.09%	3.26%	3.67%	3.55%	4.08%	3.85%	4.22%	4.05%	4.26%	4.08%	4.81%	4.38%	4.51%	4.40%	4.41%	4.43%	4.24%	3.97%	4.11%	3.96%	3.19%	2.82%	1.83%	1.31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.34%	1.68%	2.32%	2.53%	2.79%	3.25%	3.16%	3.74%	3.65%	3.79%	3.65%	4.31%	4.03%	4.43%	3.91%	4.27%	4.12%	4.77%	4.22%	4.20%	4.10%	4.37%	4.17%	3.94%	3.71%	3.68%	3.27%	2.62%
New England Patriots	1.54%	1.94%	2.29%	2.42%	2.80%	2.76%	3.20%	3.03%	3.64%	3.44%	4.03%	3.67%	4.10%	3.68%	4.50%	4.16%	4.53%	4.01%	4.65%	4.52%	4.74%	4.53%	4.47%	4.25%	3.91%	3.50%	3.24%	2.45%
New York Giants	0.59%	0.92%	1.13%	1.30%	1.58%	1.75%	2.17%	2.37%	2.50%	2.97%	3.10%	3.27%	3.44%	4.36%	4.02%	4.53%	4.36%	4.61%	5.00%	5.42%	4.94%	5.39%	5.34%	5.40%	5.45%	5.28%	4.80%	4.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.61%	0.92%	1.17%	1.43%	1.67%	1.82%	2.25%	2.31%	2.58%	2.55%	3.02%	3.15%	3.47%	3.51%	4.04%	3.98%	4.40%	4.53%	4.99%	5.18%	5.72%	5.51%	6.24%	6.35%	5.70%	5.34%	4.15%	3.42%
Washington Redskins	0.54%	0.79%	0.92%	1.13%	1.48%	1.48%	1.80%	2.13%	2.29%	2.68%	2.74%	3.06%	3.43%	4.07%	3.77%	4.38%	4.20%	4.95%	4.83%	5.49%	5.16%	5.85%	5.58%	5.54%	5.88%	5.62%	5.68%	4.55%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.51%	0.69%	0.89%	1.09%	1.27%	1.48%	1.75%	1.98%	2.20%	2.44%	2.62%	2.92%	3.12%	3.75%	3.75%	4.29%	4.16%	4.62%	4.67%	5.42%	5.17%	5.83%	5.65%	5.99%	5.97%	6.13%	6.00%	5.64%
Green Bay Packers	0.38%	0.61%	0.89%	1.24%	1.28%	1.72%	1.60%	2.24%	2.25%	2.72%	2.51%	3.17%	3.18%	3.72%	3.51%	3.85%	4.02%	4.49%	4.69%	4.80%	4.97%	5.48%	5.59%	5.62%	6.09%	6.24%	6.97%	6.17%
Chicago Bears	0.20%	0.38%	0.62%	0.83%	1.02%	1.23%	1.38%	1.81%	1.93%	2.11%	2.19%	2.75%	2.92%	3.29%	3.21%	3.54%	3.83%	4.27%	4.51%	4.99%	5.11%	5.87%	6.16%	6.63%	6.76%	7.36%	7.82%	7.31%
Seattle Seahawks	0.18%	0.31%	0.45%	0.63%	0.73%	0.79%	1.03%	0.99%	1.40%	1.38%	1.85%	1.65%	2.28%	2.01%	2.88%	2.88%	3.40%	2.96%	4.46%	4.31%	5.62%	5.23%	6.64%	7.01%	9.60%	9.83%	9.64%	9.87%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.09%	0.20%	0.24%	0.36%	0.41%	0.50%	0.66%	0.79%	0.85%	0.98%	1.27%	1.49%	1.69%	1.84%	2.19%	2.57%	3.14%	3.38%	3.91%	4.56%	5.60%	6.49%	8.48%	8.74%	11.21%	12.29%	16.00%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	0.05%	0.08%	0.10%	0.15%	0.18%	0.28%	0.30%	0.42%	0.43%	0.59%	0.64%	0.86%	0.95%	1.20%	1.31%	1.68%	1.81%	2.53%	2.73%	3.65%	4.04%	5.23%	6.10%	8.73%	11.20%	18.27%	26.48%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers	18.85%	12.35%	7.26%	13.42%	9.63%	38.50%
Miami Dolphins	11.32%	11.94%	11.06%	9.02%	9.02%	47.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.87%	12.27%	15.52%	7.01%	7.70%	46.64%
Buffalo Bills	10.56%	11.10%	10.47%	8.71%	9.01%	50.15%
Denver Broncos	9.63%	7.79%	5.23%	11.30%	9.66%	56.39%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.57%	9.99%	13.46%	6.72%	7.57%	53.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.79%	6.56%	4.54%	10.42%	9.07%	61.61%
Oakland Raiders	6.72%	6.09%	4.54%	9.71%	8.84%	64.10%
New York Jets	5.32%	6.78%	6.81%	7.27%	8.28%	65.55%
Houston Oilers	4.22%	6.05%	8.93%	5.33%	6.79%	68.67%
New England Patriots	3.70%	4.87%	5.15%	5.44%	6.72%	74.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.71%	2.95%	5.46%	3.12%	4.33%	82.44%
Seattle Seahawks	0.66%	1.00%	1.00%	2.12%	2.63%	92.59%
Baltimore Colts	0.09%	0.26%	0.60%	0.41%	0.74%	97.91%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	29.61%	12.36%	4.67%	22.19%	10.13%	21.04%
Dallas Cowboys	26.45%	11.44%	4.38%	22.75%	11.01%	23.97%
Atlanta Falcons	11.74%	17.36%	13.84%	7.89%	10.04%	39.13%
San Francisco 49ers	7.70%	12.52%	11.28%	8.33%	10.47%	49.71%
Detroit Lions	5.75%	11.48%	17.00%	4.17%	7.44%	54.16%
Los Angeles Rams	5.25%	9.37%	8.77%	6.88%	9.90%	59.82%
Minnesota Vikings	4.47%	8.78%	14.42%	4.22%	7.14%	60.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.83%	6.54%	10.90%	3.53%	6.50%	69.70%
New York Giants	1.63%	1.45%	0.90%	5.79%	6.50%	83.72%
Washington Redskins	1.49%	1.36%	0.84%	5.12%	5.71%	85.48%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.31%	1.27%	0.84%	4.70%	5.40%	86.49%
Green Bay Packers	1.01%	3.06%	5.75%	2.07%	4.52%	83.59%
Chicago Bears	0.56%	2.32%	5.12%	1.52%	3.55%	86.93%
New Orleans Saints	0.19%	0.68%	1.29%	0.85%	1.69%	95.30%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+24.55%

Fortress

62.05%0.45%37.50%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 87.09 Elo pts.

25 Elo

0.039 points per Elo point

080

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.54 points

Lean Home

-8+3.42+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

12.5

Wide Open

124817

Champion Preseason Odds

San Francisco 49ers, 4th of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

24.1%

Favored

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.51 · As Expected: 1.51 to 2.07 · Elevated: 2.07 to 2.83 · High Variance: 2.83 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.11 · Close: 5.11 to 6.92 · Off Target: 6.92 to 9.02 · Well Off Target: 9.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.18 · As Expected: 3.18 to 5.31 · More Than Expected: 5.31 to 8.49 · Far More Than Expected: 8.49 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.05 wins

As Expected

01.885

Average Finish Error

Expected

5.11

Pinpoint

06.0115

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.63%

San Francisco 49ers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

0.25%

New England Patriots

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

04.210

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.65

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

No Contest

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

27%

Some Drama

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.28

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.18

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

-0.08

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

41%

Upset-Prone

0%36%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.28

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.70

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.068

Within Noise

00.0920.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	65.44%	65.44%	42.86%	26.42%	15.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	67.56%	67.56%	42.36%	23.64%	12.72%
San Diego Chargers	52.35%	52.35%	30.47%	17.30%	8.75%
San Francisco 49ers	42.51%	42.51%	24.71%	14.15%	8.44%
Cincinnati Bengals	40.85%	40.85%	24.35%	14.22%	7.87%
Miami Dolphins	45.06%	45.06%	25.68%	14.29%	7.47%
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.44%	46.44%	24.07%	12.02%	5.68%
Atlanta Falcons	50.85%	50.85%	24.09%	10.50%	4.74%
Buffalo Bills	41.28%	41.28%	20.71%	10.04%	4.56%
Denver Broncos	33.80%	33.80%	17.10%	8.38%	3.87%
Detroit Lions	39.31%	39.31%	17.25%	7.64%	3.57%
New York Jets	27.22%	27.22%	14.07%	6.99%	3.40%
Kansas City Chiefs	28.98%	28.98%	14.21%	6.75%	3.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.40%	24.40%	9.90%	4.07%	1.86%
Los Angeles Rams	29.05%	29.05%	10.45%	3.61%	1.32%
Oakland Raiders	24.66%	24.66%	9.76%	3.61%	1.27%
Minnesota Vikings	31.40%	31.40%	10.13%	3.38%	1.19%
Houston Oilers	23.75%	23.75%	8.52%	3.04%	1.02%
New York Giants	12.30%	9.52%	4.35%	1.76%	0.81%
Washington Redskins	10.82%	8.60%	3.99%	1.61%	0.71%
Green Bay Packers	12.02%	12.02%	3.94%	1.36%	0.54%
New England Patriots	17.55%	17.55%	5.58%	1.64%	0.46%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.40%	12.40%	3.73%	1.11%	0.33%
Chicago Bears	9.56%	9.56%	2.80%	0.88%	0.33%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.10%	7.05%	2.66%	0.86%	0.31%
Seattle Seahawks	4.75%	4.48%	1.55%	0.59%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints	2.71%	2.71%	0.52%	0.12%	0.03%
Baltimore Colts	1.17%	1.17%	0.20%	0.03%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		15.2%0.03%	20.7%0.09%	31.4%0.05%	21.4%0.14%	32.5%0.08%	11.3%0.16%	14.3%0.04%	46.2%0.03%	20.9%0.04%	21.7%0.16%	21.7%0.11%	10.3%0.18%	22.9%0.03%
Buffalo Bills	84.8%0.03%		39.9%1.41%	73.1%0.75%	49.4%2.60%	63.1%1.19%	50.4%2.36%	42.5%0.77%	69.3%0.62%	48.3%0.82%	63.3%2.22%	46.9%1.47%	40.1%2.89%	65.5%0.58%
Cincinnati Bengals	79.3%0.09%	60.1%1.41%		78.2%0.29%	59.4%1.92%	72.3%0.48%	60.2%1.79%	52.4%1.46%	78.1%0.96%	58.3%1.20%	71.2%1.71%	61.5%0.43%	52.5%2.14%	70.4%0.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.6%0.05%	26.9%0.75%	21.8%0.29%		27.5%0.95%	45.4%0.18%	30.4%0.88%	22.7%0.78%	49.2%0.47%	28.2%0.61%	43.3%0.87%	28.7%0.25%	23.1%1.14%	36.8%0.22%
Denver Broncos	78.6%0.14%	50.6%2.60%	40.6%1.92%	72.5%0.95%		64.8%1.66%	52.8%1.55%	44.3%2.59%	73.2%1.78%	47.3%2.26%	62.0%1.52%	48.8%1.98%	42.3%1.69%	67.7%0.32%
Houston Oilers	67.5%0.08%	36.9%1.19%	27.7%0.48%	54.6%0.18%	35.2%1.66%		34.5%1.49%	29.7%1.24%	55.0%0.70%	37.4%0.97%	49.3%1.43%	34.2%0.46%	30.0%1.86%	50.1%0.37%
Kansas City Chiefs	88.7%0.16%	49.6%2.36%	39.8%1.79%	69.6%0.88%	47.2%1.55%	65.5%1.49%		42.7%2.38%	68.3%1.54%	49.5%2.01%	59.0%1.43%	48.7%1.94%	42.4%1.69%	64.7%0.29%
Miami Dolphins	85.7%0.04%	57.5%0.77%	47.6%1.46%	77.3%0.78%	55.7%2.59%	70.3%1.24%	57.3%2.38%		74.7%0.65%	57.8%0.84%	69.6%2.38%	55.7%1.48%	50.4%2.84%	69.4%0.60%
New England Patriots	53.8%0.03%	30.7%0.62%	21.9%0.96%	50.8%0.47%	26.8%1.78%	45.0%0.70%	31.7%1.54%	25.3%0.65%		27.0%0.54%	41.3%1.41%	30.8%1.06%	24.8%1.96%	46.1%0.43%
New York Jets	79.1%0.04%	51.7%0.82%	41.7%1.20%	71.8%0.61%	52.7%2.26%	62.6%0.97%	50.5%2.01%	42.2%0.84%	73.0%0.54%		63.1%1.97%	50.8%1.23%	45.8%2.63%	68.2%0.43%
Oakland Raiders	78.3%0.16%	36.7%2.22%	28.8%1.71%	56.7%0.87%	38.0%1.52%	50.7%1.43%	41.0%1.43%	30.4%2.38%	58.7%1.41%	36.9%1.97%		37.1%1.70%	29.1%1.48%	56.3%0.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	78.3%0.11%	53.1%1.47%	38.5%0.43%	71.3%0.25%	51.2%1.98%	65.8%0.46%	51.3%1.94%	44.3%1.48%	69.2%1.06%	49.2%1.23%	62.9%1.70%		43.1%2.17%	62.0%0.43%
San Diego Chargers	89.7%0.18%	59.9%2.89%	47.5%2.14%	76.9%1.14%	57.7%1.69%	70.0%1.86%	57.6%1.69%	49.6%2.84%	75.2%1.96%	54.2%2.63%	70.9%1.48%	56.9%2.17%		70.4%0.36%
Seattle Seahawks	77.1%0.03%	34.5%0.58%	29.6%0.40%	63.2%0.22%	32.3%0.32%	49.9%0.37%	35.3%0.29%	30.6%0.60%	53.9%0.43%	31.8%0.43%	43.7%0.28%	38.0%0.43%	29.6%0.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		63.5%0.36%	32.3%4.75%	50.5%0.97%	55.8%0.51%	62.4%0.67%	60.7%0.95%	79.8%0.08%	51.2%1.30%	36.1%4.61%	39.4%0.60%	63.5%1.17%	51.6%0.77%	50.7%1.19%
Chicago Bears	36.5%0.36%		20.7%1.36%	39.7%0.12%	50.0%0.04%	53.7%0.32%	56.6%0.08%	69.8%0.05%	37.7%0.37%	24.3%1.25%	25.1%0.43%	44.7%0.28%	37.5%0.09%	36.7%0.32%
Dallas Cowboys	67.7%4.75%	79.3%1.36%		67.0%2.97%	77.3%1.76%	74.7%4.64%	78.1%2.77%	86.5%0.65%	68.6%2.24%	53.8%1.53%	52.6%5.06%	77.7%1.68%	69.8%2.48%	68.0%1.85%
Detroit Lions	49.5%0.97%	60.3%0.12%	33.0%2.97%		62.6%0.11%	60.7%0.82%	56.7%0.19%	72.6%0.15%	51.9%0.81%	37.9%2.90%	38.4%0.98%	60.3%0.65%	51.2%0.21%	51.1%0.73%
Green Bay Packers	44.2%0.51%	50.0%0.04%	22.7%1.76%	37.4%0.11%		47.9%0.47%	52.2%0.14%	60.3%0.06%	39.0%0.41%	26.3%1.68%	28.4%0.50%	50.8%0.38%	43.4%0.11%	46.0%0.41%
Los Angeles Rams	37.6%0.67%	46.3%0.32%	25.3%4.64%	39.3%0.82%	52.1%0.47%		49.7%0.80%	71.2%0.07%	41.0%1.13%	26.2%4.09%	23.6%0.82%	50.8%1.09%	42.5%0.74%	41.9%1.12%
Minnesota Vikings	39.3%0.95%	43.4%0.08%	21.9%2.77%	43.3%0.19%	47.8%0.14%	50.3%0.80%		62.6%0.13%	40.7%0.86%	26.6%2.83%	27.7%0.97%	48.7%0.67%	39.6%0.21%	39.8%0.73%
New Orleans Saints	20.2%0.08%	30.2%0.05%	13.5%0.65%	27.4%0.15%	39.7%0.06%	28.8%0.07%	37.4%0.13%		24.3%0.17%	16.3%0.65%	19.6%0.09%	28.9%0.15%	29.3%0.12%	32.7%0.16%
New York Giants	48.8%1.30%	62.3%0.37%	31.4%2.24%	48.1%0.81%	61.0%0.41%	59.0%1.13%	59.3%0.86%	75.7%0.17%		35.2%2.12%	33.6%1.33%	61.4%0.41%	48.9%0.72%	52.7%0.42%
Philadelphia Eagles	63.9%4.61%	75.7%1.25%	46.2%1.53%	62.1%2.90%	73.7%1.68%	73.8%4.09%	73.4%2.83%	83.7%0.65%	64.8%2.12%		47.9%4.78%	72.4%1.60%	65.9%2.57%	66.2%1.71%
San Francisco 49ers	60.6%0.60%	74.9%0.43%	47.4%5.06%	61.6%0.98%	71.6%0.50%	76.4%0.82%	72.3%0.97%	80.4%0.09%	66.4%1.33%	52.1%4.78%		73.9%1.17%	64.8%0.83%	64.1%1.24%
St. Louis Cardinals	36.5%1.17%	55.3%0.28%	22.3%1.68%	39.7%0.65%	49.2%0.38%	49.2%1.09%	51.3%0.67%	71.1%0.15%	38.6%0.41%	27.6%1.60%	26.1%1.17%		39.7%0.54%	40.1%0.30%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.4%0.77%	62.5%0.09%	30.2%2.48%	48.8%0.21%	56.6%0.11%	57.5%0.74%	60.4%0.21%	70.7%0.12%	51.1%0.72%	34.1%2.57%	35.2%0.83%	60.3%0.54%		45.4%0.65%
Washington Redskins	49.3%1.19%	63.3%0.32%	32.0%1.85%	48.9%0.73%	54.0%0.41%	58.1%1.12%	60.2%0.73%	67.3%0.16%	47.3%0.42%	33.8%1.71%	35.9%1.24%	59.9%0.30%	54.6%0.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			13.6%0.15%	24.0%0.05%	19.7%0.15%	24.7%0.09%	17.7%0.14%				21.6%0.13%	17.5%0.22%	9.7%0.23%	31.2%0.02%
Buffalo Bills			39.4%5.64%	71.9%1.68%	49.0%5.48%	64.1%3.50%	52.2%4.93%				60.2%4.23%	47.7%6.67%	42.2%8.40%	66.9%0.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	86.4%0.15%	60.6%5.64%			60.4%5.14%		61.7%4.63%	52.8%6.46%	75.8%2.63%	58.7%3.52%	70.0%3.92%		51.0%8.12%	76.3%0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	76.0%0.05%	28.1%1.68%			30.4%1.50%		30.3%1.44%	23.3%2.02%	46.8%0.81%	29.2%1.06%	39.5%1.20%		24.6%2.43%	43.2%0.22%
Denver Broncos	80.3%0.15%	51.0%5.48%	39.6%5.14%	69.6%1.50%		65.6%3.04%		43.0%6.24%	68.6%2.42%	48.8%3.74%		48.4%6.09%
Houston Oilers	75.3%0.09%	35.9%3.50%			34.4%3.04%		37.8%2.52%	29.5%3.56%	53.8%1.42%	33.7%2.19%	47.1%2.20%		28.9%4.84%	51.2%0.41%
Kansas City Chiefs	82.3%0.14%	47.8%4.93%	38.3%4.63%	69.7%1.44%		62.2%2.52%		42.9%5.13%	67.1%1.89%	47.9%3.24%		46.9%5.07%
Miami Dolphins			47.2%6.46%	76.7%2.02%	57.0%6.24%	70.5%3.56%	57.1%5.13%				68.3%4.31%	55.3%7.04%	48.7%9.44%	74.7%0.86%
New England Patriots			24.2%2.63%	53.2%0.81%	31.4%2.42%	46.2%1.42%	32.9%1.89%				38.4%1.55%	29.7%2.73%	24.2%3.76%	47.6%0.35%
New York Jets			41.3%3.52%	70.8%1.06%	51.2%3.74%	66.3%2.19%	52.1%3.24%				64.2%2.83%	49.3%4.32%	43.6%5.90%	68.6%0.41%
Oakland Raiders	78.4%0.13%	39.8%4.23%	30.0%3.92%	60.5%1.20%		52.9%2.20%		31.7%4.31%	61.6%1.55%	35.8%2.83%		36.8%4.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.5%0.22%	52.3%6.67%			51.6%6.09%		53.1%5.07%	44.7%7.04%	70.3%2.73%	50.7%4.32%	63.2%4.28%		44.3%9.22%	65.6%0.80%
San Diego Chargers	90.3%0.23%	57.8%8.40%	49.0%8.12%	75.4%2.43%		71.1%4.84%		51.3%9.44%	75.8%3.76%	56.4%5.90%		55.7%9.22%
Seattle Seahawks	68.8%0.02%	33.1%0.76%	23.7%0.65%	56.8%0.22%		48.8%0.41%		25.3%0.86%	52.4%0.35%	31.4%0.41%		34.4%0.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		66.5%1.52%	36.8%13.78%	50.2%6.06%	64.1%1.71%		63.2%4.71%		56.9%2.09%	40.4%13.76%		65.6%1.56%	54.2%3.59%	56.5%2.07%
Chicago Bears	33.5%1.52%		22.4%2.60%			44.3%0.75%		62.5%0.06%	39.4%0.34%	25.0%2.77%	27.8%0.98%	49.6%0.26%		38.2%0.28%
Dallas Cowboys	63.2%13.78%	77.6%2.60%		63.9%10.36%	74.5%3.24%	73.4%7.82%	74.5%8.18%	89.0%0.77%			50.8%12.14%		67.4%6.56%
Detroit Lions	49.8%6.06%		36.1%10.36%			61.0%3.26%		78.2%0.36%	59.5%1.57%	38.4%10.81%	37.4%4.34%	64.1%1.24%		54.3%1.30%
Green Bay Packers	35.9%1.71%		25.5%3.24%			49.6%1.01%		59.2%0.07%	41.8%0.35%	29.4%3.52%	27.1%1.35%	56.4%0.36%		49.4%0.41%
Los Angeles Rams		55.7%0.75%	26.6%7.82%	39.0%3.26%	50.4%1.01%		52.8%2.84%		45.1%1.18%	28.3%8.17%		52.6%0.83%	41.8%2.15%	47.8%1.05%
Minnesota Vikings	36.8%4.71%		25.5%8.18%			47.2%2.84%		68.7%0.23%	45.6%1.24%	27.4%8.49%	27.0%3.80%	52.5%0.83%		42.6%1.09%
New Orleans Saints		37.5%0.06%	11.0%0.77%	21.8%0.36%	40.8%0.07%		31.3%0.23%		24.4%0.08%	17.0%0.80%		35.1%0.07%	20.8%0.17%	20.7%0.09%
New York Giants	43.1%2.09%	60.6%0.34%		40.5%1.57%	58.2%0.35%	54.9%1.18%	54.4%1.24%	75.6%0.08%			32.2%1.73%		48.8%0.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	59.6%13.76%	75.0%2.77%		61.6%10.81%	70.6%3.52%	71.7%8.17%	72.6%8.49%	83.0%0.80%			48.0%12.56%		63.2%6.69%
San Francisco 49ers		72.2%0.98%	49.2%12.14%	62.6%4.34%	72.9%1.35%		73.0%3.80%		67.8%1.73%	52.0%12.56%		76.3%1.29%	65.8%2.85%	67.6%1.47%
St. Louis Cardinals	34.4%1.56%	50.4%0.26%		35.9%1.24%	43.6%0.36%	47.4%0.83%	47.5%0.83%	64.9%0.07%			23.7%1.29%		40.7%0.60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	45.8%3.59%		32.6%6.56%			58.2%2.15%		79.2%0.17%	51.2%0.94%	36.8%6.69%	34.2%2.85%	59.3%0.60%		53.5%0.84%
Washington Redskins	43.5%2.07%	61.8%0.28%		45.7%1.30%	50.6%0.41%	52.2%1.05%	57.4%1.09%	79.3%0.09%			32.4%1.47%		46.5%0.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		33.3%0.01%	10.8%0.04%	37.5%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	15.4%0.01%	20.0%0.01%	14.3%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	18.8%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	10.7%0.03%	6.5%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	66.7%0.01%		40.6%3.00%	69.3%0.41%	50.3%1.91%	64.0%1.03%	50.0%1.61%	44.3%2.84%	68.2%0.44%	48.9%1.34%	60.2%1.13%	49.4%3.13%	42.2%3.67%	58.0%0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	89.2%0.04%	59.4%3.00%		70.8%0.31%	58.8%2.22%	69.3%0.84%	60.5%2.11%	53.4%4.05%	76.6%0.85%	57.8%2.07%	70.3%1.38%	54.7%2.93%	52.5%4.35%	74.4%0.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.5%<0.01%	30.7%0.41%	29.2%0.31%		30.9%0.33%	43.6%0.10%	29.8%0.30%	24.3%0.65%	48.5%0.13%	28.7%0.29%	45.5%0.22%	26.7%0.29%	23.7%0.65%	41.9%0.03%
Denver Broncos	50.0%0.01%	49.7%1.91%	41.2%2.22%	69.1%0.33%		64.4%0.86%	52.4%1.20%	43.2%2.48%	71.8%0.53%	49.4%1.18%	61.0%0.78%	48.3%2.42%	44.0%3.05%	55.8%0.12%
Houston Oilers	84.6%0.01%	36.0%1.03%	30.7%0.84%	56.4%0.10%	35.6%0.86%		40.5%0.64%	30.1%1.31%	58.1%0.24%	40.9%0.66%	48.6%0.40%	35.7%0.81%	30.0%1.57%	45.5%0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	80.0%0.01%	50.0%1.61%	39.5%2.11%	70.2%0.30%	47.6%1.20%	59.5%0.64%		43.0%1.92%	66.3%0.38%	47.6%1.06%	57.5%0.63%	47.4%1.81%	44.0%2.45%	64.7%0.08%
Miami Dolphins	85.7%0.02%	55.7%2.84%	46.6%4.05%	75.7%0.65%	56.8%2.48%	69.9%1.31%	57.0%1.92%		74.5%0.62%	53.2%1.86%	68.7%1.32%	55.9%3.67%	49.5%4.75%	66.2%0.21%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	31.8%0.44%	23.4%0.85%	51.5%0.13%	28.2%0.53%	41.9%0.24%	33.7%0.38%	25.5%0.62%		37.8%0.27%	37.6%0.29%	27.6%0.78%	25.4%1.01%	34.0%0.05%
New York Jets	81.2%0.02%	51.1%1.34%	42.2%2.07%	71.3%0.29%	50.6%1.18%	59.1%0.66%	52.4%1.06%	46.8%1.86%	62.2%0.27%		68.1%0.69%	49.3%2.07%	43.9%2.47%	63.6%0.09%
Oakland Raiders	75.0%<0.01%	39.8%1.13%	29.7%1.38%	54.5%0.22%	39.0%0.78%	51.4%0.40%	42.5%0.63%	31.3%1.32%	62.4%0.29%	31.9%0.69%		37.6%1.27%	32.6%1.58%	56.2%0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	89.3%0.03%	50.6%3.13%	45.3%2.93%	73.3%0.29%	51.7%2.42%	64.3%0.81%	52.6%1.81%	44.1%3.67%	72.4%0.78%	50.7%2.07%	62.4%1.27%		43.0%4.66%	63.4%0.20%
San Diego Chargers	93.5%0.03%	57.8%3.67%	47.5%4.35%	76.3%0.65%	56.0%3.05%	70.0%1.57%	56.0%2.45%	50.5%4.75%	74.6%1.01%	56.1%2.47%	67.4%1.58%	57.0%4.66%		64.6%0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	66.7%<0.01%	42.0%0.19%	25.6%0.22%	58.1%0.03%	44.2%0.12%	54.5%0.06%	35.3%0.08%	33.8%0.21%	66.0%0.05%	36.4%0.09%	43.8%0.06%	36.6%0.20%	35.4%0.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		63.2%0.42%	34.4%6.51%	48.8%2.49%	56.5%0.54%	61.2%1.03%	59.8%1.31%	66.7%0.04%	57.4%0.50%	39.1%5.96%	39.7%3.19%	69.1%0.30%	51.1%1.30%	56.2%0.48%
Chicago Bears	36.8%0.42%		24.5%0.64%	36.0%0.14%	48.0%0.03%	44.4%0.16%	43.2%0.07%	58.3%0.01%	37.5%0.06%	26.4%0.66%	28.0%0.45%	57.1%0.02%	47.6%0.08%	34.6%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	65.6%6.51%	75.5%0.64%		63.8%4.11%	72.7%0.98%	73.0%2.53%	75.0%2.54%	81.3%0.12%	68.3%1.11%	54.5%14.36%	52.4%5.93%	75.3%0.59%	68.2%2.49%	67.4%0.95%
Detroit Lions	51.2%2.49%	64.0%0.14%	36.2%4.11%		59.7%0.21%	59.4%1.02%	60.8%0.57%	78.5%0.07%	52.1%0.39%	39.3%4.35%	40.5%2.71%	61.0%0.24%	50.9%0.64%	56.3%0.31%
Green Bay Packers	43.5%0.54%	52.0%0.03%	27.3%0.98%	40.3%0.21%		49.4%0.23%	52.5%0.12%	61.5%0.01%	56.9%0.06%	28.7%0.90%	28.9%0.63%	53.1%0.05%	41.3%0.10%	48.6%0.07%
Los Angeles Rams	38.8%1.03%	55.6%0.16%	27.0%2.53%	40.6%1.02%	50.6%0.23%		51.8%0.61%	58.3%0.02%	37.9%0.20%	29.2%2.62%	30.8%1.08%	54.1%0.16%	40.3%0.60%	40.7%0.17%
Minnesota Vikings	40.2%1.31%	56.8%0.07%	25.0%2.54%	39.2%0.57%	47.5%0.12%	48.2%0.61%		72.4%0.03%	42.5%0.19%	29.3%2.34%	30.1%1.69%	52.5%0.14%	40.7%0.32%	49.0%0.19%
New Orleans Saints	33.3%0.04%	41.7%0.01%	18.7%0.12%	21.5%0.07%	38.5%0.01%	41.7%0.02%	27.6%0.03%		10.0%0.01%	19.8%0.10%	19.6%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	29.6%0.03%	22.7%0.02%
New York Giants	42.6%0.50%	62.5%0.06%	31.7%1.11%	47.9%0.39%	43.1%0.06%	62.1%0.20%	57.5%0.19%	90.0%0.01%		38.4%1.03%	31.9%0.49%	53.3%0.04%	46.1%0.19%	55.4%0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	60.9%5.96%	73.6%0.66%	45.5%14.36%	60.7%4.35%	71.3%0.90%	70.8%2.62%	70.7%2.34%	80.2%0.10%	61.6%1.03%		48.6%6.12%	69.9%0.61%	63.5%2.26%	61.4%1.04%
San Francisco 49ers	60.3%3.19%	72.0%0.45%	47.6%5.93%	59.5%2.71%	71.1%0.63%	69.2%1.08%	69.9%1.69%	80.4%0.06%	68.1%0.49%	51.4%6.12%		73.5%0.34%	64.8%1.59%	67.7%0.43%
St. Louis Cardinals	30.9%0.30%	42.9%0.02%	24.7%0.59%	39.0%0.24%	46.9%0.05%	45.9%0.16%	47.5%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	46.7%0.04%	30.1%0.61%	26.5%0.34%		36.5%0.13%	23.5%0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.9%1.30%	52.4%0.08%	31.8%2.49%	49.1%0.64%	58.7%0.10%	59.7%0.60%	59.3%0.32%	70.4%0.03%	53.9%0.19%	36.5%2.26%	35.2%1.59%	63.5%0.13%		55.7%0.16%
Washington Redskins	43.8%0.48%	65.4%0.05%	32.6%0.95%	43.7%0.31%	51.4%0.07%	59.3%0.17%	51.0%0.19%	77.3%0.02%	44.6%0.07%	38.6%1.04%	32.3%0.43%	76.5%0.03%	44.3%0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%			25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	52.7%1.07%	59.0%0.10%	39.1%2.63%	48.2%0.79%	57.0%0.15%	64.6%0.40%	59.9%0.31%	77.8%<0.01%	51.4%0.18%	43.5%2.34%	37.0%1.42%	59.7%0.07%	52.5%0.40%	61.0%0.16%
Cincinnati Bengals	62.1%1.45%	72.0%0.12%	49.2%3.77%	59.9%1.08%	62.2%0.18%	69.3%0.49%	70.2%0.52%	81.8%0.02%	65.2%0.25%	53.6%3.41%	47.7%1.99%	73.0%0.13%	63.9%0.56%	61.9%0.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	34.0%0.10%	55.6%<0.01%	25.1%0.33%	51.2%0.08%	47.4%0.02%	31.2%0.05%	50.0%0.04%		41.7%0.01%	25.2%0.26%	23.9%0.14%	41.7%0.01%	25.0%0.04%	53.8%0.01%
Denver Broncos	52.1%0.89%	62.7%0.07%	38.6%2.23%	48.6%0.64%	59.2%0.10%	64.4%0.32%	60.9%0.27%	66.7%0.01%	54.4%0.16%	44.3%1.96%	40.3%1.14%	64.9%0.07%	55.8%0.34%	57.1%0.16%
Houston Oilers	42.0%0.30%	60.7%0.03%	28.9%0.82%	36.1%0.24%	56.8%0.04%	52.1%0.12%	55.9%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	34.6%0.05%	29.5%0.72%	23.6%0.43%	53.8%0.01%	40.4%0.11%	42.0%0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	51.3%0.71%	61.9%0.06%	38.2%1.77%	50.8%0.53%	62.9%0.10%	55.9%0.25%	63.0%0.22%	75.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.11%	43.4%1.59%	38.8%0.95%	69.4%0.07%	50.6%0.27%	55.0%0.11%
Miami Dolphins	59.1%1.52%	58.3%0.13%	45.9%3.71%	60.2%1.08%	66.7%0.23%	67.8%0.54%	70.5%0.48%	72.7%0.02%	58.6%0.27%	50.0%3.24%	43.4%2.12%	66.4%0.12%	59.6%0.61%	58.1%0.22%
New England Patriots	38.1%0.16%	26.7%0.01%	26.8%0.44%	22.4%0.13%	36.8%0.02%	44.8%0.06%	47.7%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	17.2%0.03%	29.3%0.38%	17.5%0.23%	38.9%0.02%	20.3%0.07%	12.5%0.02%
New York Jets	54.9%0.80%	62.5%0.06%	40.7%1.86%	54.4%0.49%	67.5%0.08%	66.9%0.24%	70.2%0.26%	88.9%<0.01%	53.6%0.11%	48.0%1.63%	39.5%0.98%	60.6%0.07%	56.0%0.28%	50.8%0.12%
Oakland Raiders	41.5%0.38%	48.5%0.03%	29.2%0.88%	37.9%0.31%	36.4%0.03%	51.6%0.16%	48.3%0.12%	57.1%<0.01%	32.7%0.06%	33.7%0.89%	29.5%0.50%	59.1%0.02%	38.5%0.16%	49.2%0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.0%1.29%	61.5%0.10%	39.7%3.22%	53.5%0.90%	54.8%0.16%	63.5%0.39%	63.0%0.40%	66.7%0.01%	52.8%0.21%	45.9%2.86%	41.4%1.70%	58.7%0.11%	51.6%0.49%	55.9%0.19%
San Diego Chargers	56.9%1.77%	70.8%0.14%	44.4%4.58%	58.2%1.32%	64.6%0.25%	65.2%0.59%	68.3%0.56%	92.3%0.01%	55.9%0.30%	48.7%4.21%	42.5%2.46%	67.2%0.14%	55.8%0.70%	54.9%0.27%
Seattle Seahawks	33.3%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	26.1%0.16%	32.4%0.04%	22.2%<0.01%	58.3%0.02%	52.4%0.02%		63.6%0.01%	36.0%0.14%	36.9%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%	48.1%0.03%	77.8%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons															66.7%<0.01%	47.3%1.07%	37.9%1.45%	66.0%0.10%	47.9%0.89%	58.0%0.30%	48.7%0.71%	40.9%1.52%	61.9%0.16%	45.1%0.80%	58.5%0.38%	44.0%1.29%	43.1%1.77%	66.7%0.05%
Chicago Bears															100.0%<0.01%	41.0%0.10%	28.0%0.12%	44.4%<0.01%	37.3%0.07%	39.3%0.03%	38.1%0.06%	41.7%0.13%	73.3%0.01%	37.5%0.06%	51.5%0.03%	38.5%0.10%	29.2%0.14%	33.3%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys															100.0%<0.01%	60.9%2.63%	50.8%3.77%	74.9%0.33%	61.4%2.23%	71.1%0.82%	61.8%1.77%	54.1%3.71%	73.2%0.44%	59.3%1.86%	70.8%0.88%	60.3%3.22%	55.6%4.58%	73.9%0.16%
Detroit Lions															100.0%<0.01%	51.8%0.79%	40.1%1.08%	48.8%0.08%	51.4%0.64%	63.9%0.24%	49.2%0.53%	39.8%1.08%	77.6%0.13%	45.6%0.49%	62.1%0.31%	46.5%0.90%	41.8%1.32%	67.6%0.04%
Green Bay Packers																43.0%0.15%	37.8%0.18%	52.6%0.02%	40.8%0.10%	43.2%0.04%	37.1%0.10%	33.3%0.23%	63.2%0.02%	32.5%0.08%	63.6%0.03%	45.2%0.16%	35.4%0.25%	77.8%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															50.0%<0.01%	35.4%0.40%	30.7%0.49%	68.8%0.05%	35.6%0.32%	47.9%0.12%	44.1%0.25%	32.2%0.54%	55.2%0.06%	33.1%0.24%	48.4%0.16%	36.5%0.39%	34.8%0.59%	41.7%0.02%
Minnesota Vikings															66.7%<0.01%	40.1%0.31%	29.8%0.52%	50.0%0.04%	39.1%0.27%	44.1%0.10%	37.0%0.22%	29.5%0.48%	52.3%0.07%	29.8%0.26%	51.7%0.12%	37.0%0.40%	31.7%0.56%	47.6%0.02%
New Orleans Saints																22.2%<0.01%	18.2%0.02%		33.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%	7.7%0.01%
New York Giants																48.6%0.18%	34.8%0.25%	58.3%0.01%	45.6%0.16%	65.4%0.05%	50.0%0.11%	41.4%0.27%	82.8%0.03%	46.4%0.11%	67.3%0.06%	47.2%0.21%	44.1%0.30%	36.4%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															75.0%<0.01%	56.5%2.34%	46.4%3.41%	74.8%0.26%	55.7%1.96%	70.5%0.72%	56.6%1.59%	50.0%3.24%	70.7%0.38%	52.0%1.63%	66.3%0.89%	54.1%2.86%	51.3%4.21%	64.0%0.14%
San Francisco 49ers															100.0%<0.01%	63.0%1.42%	52.3%1.99%	76.1%0.14%	59.7%1.14%	76.4%0.43%	61.2%0.95%	56.6%2.12%	82.5%0.23%	60.5%0.98%	70.5%0.50%	58.6%1.70%	57.5%2.46%	63.1%0.08%
St. Louis Cardinals																40.3%0.07%	27.0%0.13%	58.3%0.01%	35.1%0.07%	46.2%0.01%	30.6%0.07%	33.6%0.12%	61.1%0.02%	39.4%0.07%	40.9%0.02%	41.3%0.11%	32.8%0.14%	33.3%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															100.0%<0.01%	47.5%0.40%	36.1%0.56%	75.0%0.04%	44.2%0.34%	59.6%0.11%	49.4%0.27%	40.4%0.61%	79.7%0.07%	44.0%0.28%	61.5%0.16%	48.4%0.49%	44.2%0.70%	51.9%0.03%
Washington Redskins																39.0%0.16%	38.1%0.23%	46.2%0.01%	42.9%0.16%	58.0%0.05%	45.0%0.11%	41.9%0.22%	87.5%0.02%	49.2%0.12%	50.8%0.07%	44.1%0.19%	45.1%0.27%	22.2%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	67.91%	44.34%	23.82%	Won Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	100.00%	68.55%	44.99%	22.04%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	75.55%	35.09%	18.67%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	62.57%	26.91%	12.48%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	37.43%	16.61%	7.79%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	72.52%	24.79%	9.85%	5.32%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	65.07%	20.72%	7.65%	3.62%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.00%	24.45%	8.42%	3.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	34.93%	10.73%	3.84%	1.72%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Giants	27.48%	7.30%	2.30%	1.01%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	New York Jets
Buffalo Bills		34.9%100.00%
New York Jets	65.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants		27.5%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	72.5%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		30.7%34.93%
Cincinnati Bengals	69.3%34.93%			68.2%65.07%
Miami Dolphins					62.6%100.00%
New York Jets		31.8%65.07%
San Diego Chargers			37.4%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys					75.6%100.00%
New York Giants				26.6%27.48%
Philadelphia Eagles				34.2%72.52%
San Francisco 49ers		73.4%27.48%	65.8%72.52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.4%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills			35.7%6.68%		35.9%4.05%
Cincinnati Bengals			66.1%42.98%		64.8%25.57%
Miami Dolphins	64.3%6.68%	33.9%42.98%		62.4%12.91%
New York Jets			37.6%12.91%		35.9%7.81%
San Diego Chargers	64.1%4.05%	35.2%25.57%		64.1%7.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		71.5%5.52%	63.3%18.82%	37.5%51.22%
New York Giants	28.5%5.52%				41.1%1.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	36.7%18.82%				49.5%5.97%
San Francisco 49ers	62.5%51.22%				73.9%16.69%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		58.9%1.78%	50.5%5.97%	26.1%16.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills	43.2%1.35%	55.6%0.08%	45.8%0.38%	42.5%1.65%	57.9%0.38%
Cincinnati Bengals	48.0%15.74%	57.1%1.06%	47.8%4.43%	47.5%20.01%	60.3%3.74%
Miami Dolphins	46.0%9.42%	54.1%0.60%	43.8%2.64%	44.8%12.00%	57.3%2.26%
New York Jets	44.2%2.75%	58.0%0.18%	45.4%0.74%	47.4%3.33%	59.0%0.66%
San Diego Chargers	46.6%5.82%	55.7%0.39%	45.3%1.66%	45.7%7.36%	54.3%1.38%
Dallas Cowboys						56.8%1.35%	52.0%15.74%	54.0%9.42%	55.8%2.75%	53.4%5.82%
New York Giants						44.4%0.08%	42.9%1.06%	45.9%0.60%	42.0%0.18%	44.3%0.39%
Philadelphia Eagles						54.2%0.38%	52.2%4.43%	56.2%2.64%	54.6%0.74%	54.7%1.66%
San Francisco 49ers						57.5%1.65%	52.5%20.01%	55.2%12.00%	52.6%3.33%	54.3%7.36%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						42.1%0.38%	39.7%3.74%	42.7%2.26%	41.0%0.66%	45.7%1.38%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 23.82% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

70.28%

Win Prob

65.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

72.17%

Win Prob

62.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

44.10%

Win Prob

52.52%

Cincinnati Bengals 22.04% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

64.70%

Win Prob

68.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

63.18%

Win Prob

66.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.10%

Win Prob

47.48%

Dallas Cowboys 18.67% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

54.78%

Win Prob

37.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

43.83%

Win Prob

51.98%

Miami Dolphins 12.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

54.09%

Win Prob

33.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.06%

Win Prob

44.81%

San Diego Chargers 7.79% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

54.22%

Win Prob

35.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.12%

Win Prob

45.70%

Philadelphia Eagles 5.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

70.01%

Win Prob

36.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

43.53%

Win Prob

52.21%

New York Jets 3.62% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

63.39%

Win Prob

37.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.56%

Win Prob

47.39%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

51.69%

Win Prob

26.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

42.27%

Win Prob

39.67%

Buffalo Bills 1.72% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

62.10%

Win Prob

35.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.80%

Win Prob

42.48%

New York Giants 1.01% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

68.26%

Win Prob

28.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

45.00%

Win Prob

42.88%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-09-06	New Orleans Saints	W 27-0	1540.06	1443.26	74.02%	25.62%	+16.53	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1556.59	1469.62	49.75%	49.78%	+23.11	2-0
1981-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-17	1579.70	1472.35	75.16%	24.48%	+12.54	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1592.24	1475.58	54.01%	45.53%	-22.22	3-1
1981-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-16	1570.02	1617.64	31.35%	68.24%	-6.75	3-2
1981-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 35-37	1563.27	1556.31	62.98%	36.58%	-11.04	3-3
1981-10-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-20	1552.23	1427.52	76.97%	22.69%	+12.91	4-3
1981-10-25	New York Giants	L 24-27	1565.14	1487.08	71.90%	27.72%	-15.43	4-4
1981-11-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-10	1549.71	1395.59	59.30%	40.25%	+27.83	5-4
1981-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1577.54	1570.28	38.50%	61.06%	-8.28	5-5
1981-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-34	1569.26	1513.13	69.29%	30.31%	-32.12	5-6
1981-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1537.14	1531.29	62.83%	36.73%	+4.56	6-6
1981-11-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1541.70	1452.30	50.10%	49.43%	+12.27	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1553.97	1508.66	43.79%	55.75%	-5.44	7-7
1981-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-21	1548.53	1475.52	47.74%	51.79%	-13.25	7-8
1981-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-30	1535.28	1612.59	51.17%	48.36%	-8.98	7-9
1981-09-06	@ New England Patriots	W 29-28	1479.89	1536.73	30.23%	69.37%	+8.59	1-0
1981-09-13	Buffalo Bills	L 3-35	1488.48	1539.34	54.96%	44.58%	-38.56	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-28	1449.92	1498.92	31.18%	68.41%	-16.43	1-2
1981-09-27	Miami Dolphins	L 28-31	1433.49	1564.45	43.49%	56.05%	-9.35	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-23	1424.14	1549.08	22.66%	77.00%	-6.89	1-4
1981-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-41	1417.25	1479.99	53.27%	46.27%	-30.99	1-5
1981-10-18	San Diego Chargers	L 14-43	1386.26	1570.79	36.13%	63.43%	-24.17	1-6
1981-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-42	1362.09	1481.01	23.28%	76.38%	-10.81	1-7
1981-11-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1351.28	1557.01	15.57%	84.17%	-7.96	1-8
1981-11-08	New York Jets	L 14-41	1343.32	1487.86	41.59%	57.96%	-26.83	1-9
1981-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-38	1316.49	1638.93	8.62%	91.21%	-5.34	1-10
1981-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-35	1311.15	1425.22	45.90%	53.64%	-18.89	1-11
1981-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 0-25	1292.26	1543.14	12.46%	87.32%	-7.72	1-12
1981-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-37	1284.54	1618.25	19.37%	80.32%	-11.78	1-13
1981-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1272.76	1463.79	16.71%	83.02%	-10.16	1-14
1981-12-20	New England Patriots	W 23-21	1262.60	1405.93	41.75%	57.79%	+10.13	2-14
1981-09-06	New York Jets	W 31-0	1517.73	1469.32	68.34%	31.26%	+21.61	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-3	1539.34	1488.48	44.58%	54.96%	+38.56	2-0
1981-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-20	1577.90	1588.84	60.55%	39.00%	-18.39	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1559.51	1481.04	48.53%	51.01%	-10.43	2-2
1981-10-04	Baltimore Colts	W 23-17	1549.08	1424.14	77.00%	22.66%	+6.89	3-2
1981-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1555.97	1572.11	59.84%	39.71%	+15.60	4-2
1981-10-18	@ New York Jets	L 14-33	1571.57	1459.74	53.32%	46.22%	-28.83	4-3
1981-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 9-7	1542.74	1562.00	59.41%	40.14%	+7.05	5-3
1981-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 22-13	1549.79	1491.82	69.51%	30.09%	+11.21	6-3
1981-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-27	1561.00	1603.90	31.94%	67.65%	-14.30	6-4
1981-11-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-24	1546.70	1388.89	59.80%	39.75%	-36.33	6-5
1981-11-22	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1510.37	1459.86	68.60%	31.00%	+6.67	7-5
1981-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1517.04	1463.62	68.95%	30.64%	+10.07	8-5
1981-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-27	1527.11	1580.13	30.69%	68.91%	+8.54	9-5
1981-12-13	@ New England Patriots	W 19-10	1535.65	1423.10	53.42%	46.11%	+17.17	10-5
1981-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-16	1552.82	1579.28	34.03%	65.55%	-13.37	10-6
1981-09-06	Green Bay Packers	L 9-16	1507.29	1446.73	69.82%	29.78%	-22.89	0-1
1981-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-28	1484.40	1455.26	41.52%	58.03%	-17.09	0-2
1981-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-17	1467.31	1461.66	62.80%	36.76%	+15.14	1-2
1981-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1482.45	1513.78	57.72%	41.82%	-29.52	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1452.93	1490.66	32.59%	66.99%	-7.01	1-4
1981-10-11	Washington Redskins	L 7-24	1445.92	1391.21	69.11%	30.48%	-35.31	1-5
1981-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-48	1410.61	1489.61	27.61%	72.00%	-19.09	1-6
1981-10-25	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1391.52	1594.96	33.67%	65.91%	+14.15	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1405.67	1492.33	26.74%	72.88%	-10.50	2-7
1981-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1395.17	1563.36	18.61%	81.09%	+17.39	3-7
1981-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1412.56	1411.99	37.59%	61.97%	-9.34	3-8
1981-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 7-23	1403.22	1507.47	47.30%	52.23%	-23.48	3-9
1981-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-10	1379.74	1616.59	13.36%	86.41%	-1.66	3-10
1981-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-9	1378.08	1493.52	45.70%	53.84%	+6.68	4-10
1981-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-6	1384.76	1505.30	23.11%	76.54%	+39.09	5-10
1981-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 35-24	1423.85	1569.26	41.46%	58.08%	+23.89	6-10
1981-09-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1477.67	1458.78	64.56%	35.01%	+10.65	1-0
1981-09-13	@ New York Jets	W 31-30	1488.32	1447.71	43.13%	56.42%	+7.00	2-0
1981-09-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1495.32	1461.30	66.52%	33.06%	-14.28	2-1
1981-09-27	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1481.04	1559.51	51.01%	48.53%	+10.43	3-1
1981-10-04	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1491.47	1510.92	34.94%	64.64%	-11.48	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 41-19	1479.99	1417.25	46.27%	53.27%	+30.99	4-2
1981-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1510.98	1549.76	56.68%	42.87%	+27.65	5-2
1981-10-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1538.63	1371.65	61.07%	38.49%	-23.94	5-3
1981-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 34-21	1514.69	1491.13	65.17%	34.40%	+15.41	6-3
1981-11-08	@ San Diego Chargers	W 40-17	1530.10	1587.14	30.20%	69.40%	+41.24	7-3
1981-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-10	1571.34	1525.35	68.03%	31.56%	+14.66	8-3
1981-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 38-21	1586.00	1592.30	61.19%	38.37%	+19.64	9-3
1981-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-21	1605.64	1459.07	58.24%	41.30%	+22.94	10-3
1981-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-21	1628.58	1580.60	68.28%	31.31%	-35.90	10-4
1981-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1592.68	1582.86	38.85%	60.71%	+19.91	11-4
1981-12-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-28	1612.59	1535.28	48.36%	51.17%	+8.98	12-4
1981-09-07	San Diego Chargers	L 14-44	1518.77	1527.48	60.86%	38.70%	-41.32	0-1
1981-09-13	Houston Oilers	L 3-9	1477.45	1540.97	53.15%	46.38%	-16.15	0-2
1981-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1461.30	1495.32	33.06%	66.52%	+14.28	1-2
1981-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-17	1475.58	1592.24	45.53%	54.01%	+22.22	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-27	1497.80	1543.29	31.62%	67.97%	-13.03	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1484.77	1540.52	30.36%	69.24%	-9.23	2-4
1981-10-18	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1475.54	1377.12	74.19%	25.44%	+5.47	3-4
1981-10-25	Baltimore Colts	W 42-28	1481.01	1362.09	76.38%	23.28%	+10.81	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-22	1491.82	1549.79	30.09%	69.51%	-11.21	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1480.61	1560.52	27.51%	72.11%	-5.91	4-6
1981-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-12	1474.70	1578.56	24.85%	74.79%	+16.04	5-6
1981-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-32	1490.74	1545.26	54.44%	45.10%	-31.67	5-7
1981-11-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-41	1459.07	1605.64	41.30%	58.24%	-22.93	5-8
1981-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1436.14	1440.03	36.99%	62.57%	-9.19	5-9
1981-12-12	New York Jets	L 13-14	1426.95	1536.79	46.50%	53.04%	-5.77	5-10
1981-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-42	1421.18	1420.57	37.60%	61.96%	-21.40	5-11
1981-09-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-10	1551.80	1494.49	45.50%	54.04%	+26.81	1-0
1981-09-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-17	1578.61	1446.65	77.70%	21.97%	+9.83	2-0
1981-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 35-21	1588.44	1515.86	47.68%	51.85%	+24.07	3-0
1981-09-27	New York Giants	W 18-10	1612.51	1462.24	79.47%	20.22%	+7.10	4-0
1981-10-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1619.61	1436.75	63.21%	36.35%	-13.57	4-1
1981-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-45	1606.04	1494.97	53.21%	46.32%	-36.75	4-2
1981-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 29-17	1569.29	1567.35	62.31%	37.26%	+16.02	5-2
1981-10-25	Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1585.31	1561.28	65.24%	34.34%	+4.27	6-2
1981-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1589.58	1625.16	32.86%	66.72%	+14.32	7-2
1981-11-09	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1603.90	1561.00	67.65%	31.94%	+14.30	8-2
1981-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1618.20	1495.68	54.85%	44.69%	-11.78	8-3
1981-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1606.42	1473.79	77.77%	21.90%	+10.17	9-3
1981-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 10-9	1616.59	1379.74	86.41%	13.36%	+1.66	10-3
1981-12-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-13	1618.25	1284.54	80.32%	19.37%	+11.78	11-3
1981-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-10	1630.03	1590.91	67.17%	32.41%	+13.35	12-3
1981-12-19	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1643.38	1501.49	57.59%	41.96%	-12.37	12-4
1981-09-06	Oakland Raiders	W 9-7	1500.87	1556.07	54.34%	45.19%	+7.94	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1508.81	1448.13	45.98%	53.56%	-9.89	1-1
1981-09-20	Baltimore Colts	W 28-10	1498.92	1449.92	68.41%	31.18%	+16.43	2-1
1981-09-27	San Diego Chargers	W 42-24	1515.35	1599.76	50.15%	49.38%	+26.00	3-1
1981-10-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-0	1541.35	1565.72	34.30%	65.28%	+33.36	4-1
1981-10-11	Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1574.71	1498.10	71.73%	27.89%	+8.48	5-1
1981-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-28	1583.19	1524.93	45.63%	53.91%	-21.19	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-9	1562.00	1542.74	40.14%	59.41%	-7.05	5-3
1981-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1554.95	1510.05	67.90%	31.69%	+5.57	6-3
1981-11-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1560.52	1480.61	72.11%	27.51%	+5.91	7-3
1981-11-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1566.43	1484.89	48.97%	50.57%	+25.87	8-3
1981-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-38	1592.30	1586.00	38.37%	61.19%	-19.64	8-4
1981-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-34	1572.66	1560.05	39.23%	60.32%	-20.09	8-5
1981-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1552.57	1551.60	62.18%	37.38%	+8.04	9-5
1981-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-13	1560.61	1429.21	77.64%	22.02%	+8.65	10-5
1981-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-35	1569.26	1423.85	58.08%	41.46%	-23.89	10-6
1981-09-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1502.69	1466.01	66.86%	32.72%	+10.75	1-0
1981-09-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-28	1513.44	1568.80	30.40%	69.19%	-8.44	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-26	1505.00	1453.02	44.74%	54.80%	-7.86	1-2
1981-09-27	Oakland Raiders	W 16-0	1497.14	1590.89	48.81%	50.73%	+25.18	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-28	1522.32	1461.53	45.99%	53.55%	-24.22	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-27	1498.10	1574.71	27.89%	71.73%	-8.49	2-4
1981-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 48-17	1489.61	1410.61	72.00%	27.61%	+19.10	3-4
1981-10-25	Green Bay Packers	W 31-27	1508.71	1394.03	75.94%	23.71%	+5.89	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1514.60	1543.20	33.75%	65.83%	-11.09	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 31-33	1503.51	1452.74	44.56%	54.98%	-7.83	4-6
1981-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-24	1495.68	1618.20	44.69%	54.85%	+11.79	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-7	1507.47	1403.22	52.23%	47.30%	+23.48	6-6
1981-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-10	1530.95	1573.83	56.09%	43.45%	+22.23	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-31	1553.18	1430.93	54.81%	44.73%	-25.43	7-7
1981-12-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-7	1527.75	1486.84	67.40%	32.19%	+24.64	8-7
1981-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1552.39	1507.39	67.91%	31.68%	-14.57	8-8
1981-09-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-9	1446.73	1507.29	29.78%	69.82%	+22.89	1-0
1981-09-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1469.62	1556.59	49.78%	49.75%	-23.12	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-35	1446.50	1500.63	30.56%	69.04%	-13.14	1-2
1981-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-30	1433.36	1460.87	58.26%	41.29%	-29.79	1-3
1981-10-04	@ New York Giants	W 27-14	1403.57	1455.14	30.87%	68.73%	+30.71	2-3
1981-10-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-21	1434.28	1485.75	54.88%	44.66%	-22.57	2-4
1981-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-13	1411.71	1531.72	45.05%	54.49%	-17.68	2-5
1981-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-31	1394.03	1508.71	23.71%	75.94%	-5.89	2-6
1981-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-24	1388.14	1407.37	59.41%	40.14%	+15.76	3-6
1981-11-08	New York Giants	W 26-24	1403.90	1465.37	53.45%	46.09%	+8.09	4-6
1981-11-15	Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1411.99	1412.56	61.97%	37.59%	+9.33	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-37	1421.32	1459.02	32.59%	66.99%	-23.60	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-23	1397.72	1526.73	22.26%	77.41%	+33.21	6-7
1981-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1430.93	1553.18	44.73%	54.81%	+25.44	7-7
1981-12-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-7	1456.37	1360.09	51.09%	48.45%	+31.81	8-7
1981-12-20	@ New York Jets	L 3-28	1488.18	1542.56	30.52%	69.07%	-18.96	8-8
1981-09-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-20	1519.88	1536.94	35.25%	64.32%	+21.09	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-3	1540.97	1477.45	46.38%	53.15%	+16.15	2-0
1981-09-20	Miami Dolphins	L 10-16	1557.12	1545.12	63.65%	35.91%	-19.32	2-1
1981-09-27	@ New York Jets	L 17-33	1537.80	1420.00	54.17%	45.36%	-26.88	2-2
1981-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1510.92	1491.47	64.64%	34.94%	+11.48	3-2
1981-10-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-17	1522.40	1422.70	74.33%	25.30%	+13.33	4-2
1981-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 10-38	1535.73	1491.08	43.70%	55.84%	-28.70	4-3
1981-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-26	1507.03	1522.10	35.51%	64.06%	-15.90	4-4
1981-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-34	1491.13	1514.69	34.40%	65.17%	-15.41	4-5
1981-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 17-16	1475.72	1504.12	58.13%	41.41%	+5.14	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-23	1480.86	1545.97	29.23%	70.37%	-13.09	5-6
1981-11-22	New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1467.77	1387.83	72.11%	27.50%	-15.47	5-7
1981-11-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-31	1452.30	1541.70	49.43%	50.10%	-12.27	5-8
1981-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1440.03	1436.14	62.57%	36.99%	+9.19	6-8
1981-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-28	1449.22	1616.50	18.69%	81.01%	-10.88	6-9
1981-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-20	1438.34	1562.95	44.39%	55.15%	+6.84	7-9
1981-09-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-33	1496.46	1522.73	34.05%	65.53%	+16.24	1-0
1981-09-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-10	1512.70	1473.74	67.15%	32.43%	+12.09	2-0
1981-09-20	San Diego Chargers	L 31-42	1524.79	1577.25	54.73%	44.80%	-22.52	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-14	1502.27	1449.08	44.91%	54.63%	+16.60	3-1
1981-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 17-33	1518.87	1481.03	42.74%	56.81%	-21.23	3-2
1981-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 27-0	1497.64	1532.36	57.25%	42.30%	+27.29	4-2
1981-10-18	Denver Broncos	W 28-14	1524.93	1583.19	53.91%	45.63%	+21.19	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-17	1546.12	1511.74	42.25%	57.29%	+23.57	6-2
1981-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-22	1569.69	1580.81	36.03%	63.54%	-6.33	6-3
1981-11-08	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1563.36	1395.17	81.09%	18.61%	-17.39	6-4
1981-11-15	Houston Oilers	W 23-10	1545.97	1480.86	70.37%	29.23%	+13.09	7-4
1981-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 40-13	1559.06	1436.47	76.76%	22.90%	+14.77	8-4
1981-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-27	1573.83	1530.95	43.45%	56.09%	-22.23	8-5
1981-12-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1551.60	1552.57	37.38%	62.18%	-8.05	8-6
1981-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1543.55	1555.60	60.40%	39.15%	-23.68	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 10-6	1519.87	1462.20	45.55%	53.99%	+13.40	9-7
1981-09-06	Houston Oilers	L 20-27	1536.94	1519.88	64.32%	35.25%	-21.10	0-1
1981-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-23	1515.84	1426.73	50.06%	49.48%	-15.21	0-2
1981-09-20	Green Bay Packers	W 35-23	1500.63	1446.50	69.04%	30.56%	+13.15	1-2
1981-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1513.78	1482.45	41.82%	57.72%	+29.51	2-2
1981-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-16	1543.29	1497.80	67.97%	31.62%	+13.02	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-35	1556.31	1563.27	36.58%	62.98%	+11.04	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-29	1567.35	1569.29	37.26%	62.31%	-16.03	4-3
1981-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1551.32	1549.40	37.78%	61.78%	-8.12	4-4
1981-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1543.20	1514.60	65.83%	33.75%	+11.09	5-4
1981-11-08	New Orleans Saints	L 13-21	1554.29	1367.76	82.65%	17.07%	-28.94	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1525.35	1571.34	31.56%	68.03%	-14.67	5-6
1981-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 31-33	1510.68	1562.51	54.82%	44.71%	-9.61	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-24	1501.07	1576.93	27.97%	71.64%	-17.02	5-8
1981-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1484.05	1468.37	39.65%	59.90%	-8.53	5-9
1981-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-16	1475.52	1548.53	51.79%	47.74%	+13.25	6-9
1981-12-20	Washington Redskins	L 7-30	1488.77	1473.95	64.03%	35.54%	-38.06	6-10
1981-09-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1499.61	1472.73	41.20%	58.35%	+26.09	1-0
1981-09-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-10	1525.70	1506.49	64.60%	34.97%	+19.42	2-0
1981-09-20	@ Houston Oilers	W 16-10	1545.12	1557.12	35.91%	63.65%	+19.33	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-28	1564.45	1433.49	56.05%	43.49%	+9.35	4-0
1981-10-04	New York Jets	T 28-28	1573.80	1446.88	77.20%	22.47%	-1.69	4-0
1981-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-31	1572.11	1555.97	39.71%	59.84%	-15.60	4-1
1981-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1556.51	1426.52	77.50%	22.16%	+4.77	5-1
1981-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-28	1561.28	1585.31	34.34%	65.24%	-4.27	5-2
1981-11-01	Baltimore Colts	W 27-10	1557.01	1351.28	84.17%	15.57%	+7.96	6-2
1981-11-08	@ New England Patriots	W 30-27	1564.97	1494.83	47.33%	52.20%	+11.22	7-2
1981-11-15	Oakland Raiders	L 17-33	1576.19	1498.98	71.80%	27.82%	-35.58	7-3
1981-11-22	@ New York Jets	L 15-16	1540.61	1538.44	37.81%	61.75%	-4.70	7-4
1981-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1535.91	1611.49	51.42%	48.11%	+10.35	8-4
1981-12-06	New England Patriots	W 24-14	1546.26	1432.45	75.85%	23.80%	+9.34	9-4
1981-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-7	1555.60	1543.55	39.15%	60.40%	+23.68	10-4
1981-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 16-6	1579.28	1552.82	65.55%	34.03%	+13.36	11-4
1981-09-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-21	1502.14	1458.45	43.56%	55.98%	-15.30	0-1
1981-09-14	Oakland Raiders	L 10-36	1486.84	1548.14	53.47%	46.06%	-33.82	0-2
1981-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 26-24	1453.02	1505.00	54.80%	44.74%	+7.85	1-2
1981-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-13	1460.87	1433.36	41.29%	58.26%	+29.79	2-2
1981-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1490.66	1452.93	66.99%	32.59%	+7.01	3-2
1981-10-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-31	1497.67	1583.55	26.83%	72.79%	+12.75	4-2
1981-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-23	1510.42	1639.81	43.72%	55.82%	+23.98	5-2
1981-10-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-30	1534.40	1414.62	54.46%	45.08%	-24.35	5-3
1981-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-19	1510.05	1554.95	31.69%	67.90%	-5.57	5-4
1981-11-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-10	1504.48	1502.83	62.27%	37.29%	+17.94	6-4
1981-11-15	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1522.42	1396.70	77.07%	22.59%	+8.87	7-4
1981-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 30-31	1531.29	1537.14	36.73%	62.83%	-4.56	7-5
1981-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 23-35	1526.73	1397.72	77.41%	22.26%	-33.21	7-6
1981-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1493.52	1378.08	53.84%	45.70%	-6.68	7-7
1981-12-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-45	1486.84	1527.75	32.19%	67.40%	-24.64	7-8
1981-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1462.20	1519.87	53.99%	45.55%	-13.40	7-9
1981-09-06	Baltimore Colts	L 28-29	1536.73	1479.89	69.37%	30.23%	-8.60	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-13	1528.13	1576.56	31.25%	68.34%	-12.27	0-2
1981-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-35	1515.86	1588.44	51.85%	47.68%	-24.07	0-3
1981-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1491.79	1507.78	35.39%	64.18%	-10.76	0-4
1981-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-17	1481.03	1518.87	56.81%	42.74%	+21.22	1-4
1981-10-11	@ New York Jets	L 24-28	1502.25	1448.57	44.98%	54.56%	-11.17	1-5
1981-10-18	Houston Oilers	W 38-10	1491.08	1535.73	55.84%	43.70%	+28.70	2-5
1981-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 22-24	1519.78	1421.76	51.34%	48.19%	-9.00	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1510.78	1488.18	40.61%	58.94%	-15.95	2-7
1981-11-08	Miami Dolphins	L 27-30	1494.83	1564.97	52.20%	47.33%	-11.21	2-8
1981-11-15	New York Jets	L 6-17	1483.62	1514.69	57.76%	41.79%	-23.76	2-9
1981-11-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1459.86	1510.37	31.00%	68.60%	-6.67	2-10
1981-11-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-27	1453.19	1444.11	63.26%	36.30%	-20.74	2-11
1981-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1432.45	1546.26	23.80%	75.85%	-9.35	2-12
1981-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 10-19	1423.10	1535.65	46.11%	53.42%	-17.17	2-13
1981-12-20	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-23	1405.93	1262.60	57.79%	41.75%	-10.13	2-14
1981-09-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-27	1443.26	1540.06	25.62%	74.02%	-16.53	0-1
1981-09-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1426.73	1515.84	49.48%	50.06%	+15.21	1-1
1981-09-20	@ New York Giants	L 7-20	1441.94	1445.67	37.02%	62.55%	-16.57	1-2
1981-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-21	1425.37	1459.82	33.00%	66.58%	-10.85	1-3
1981-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-20	1414.52	1518.54	47.33%	52.20%	-21.98	1-4
1981-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-31	1392.54	1624.39	30.13%	69.47%	-15.42	1-5
1981-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1377.12	1475.54	25.44%	74.19%	-5.47	1-6
1981-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-7	1371.65	1538.63	38.49%	61.07%	+23.94	2-6
1981-11-01	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-41	1395.59	1549.71	40.25%	59.30%	-27.83	2-7
1981-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-13	1367.76	1554.29	17.07%	82.65%	+28.94	3-7
1981-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-20	1396.70	1522.42	22.59%	77.07%	-8.87	3-8
1981-11-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-24	1387.83	1467.77	27.50%	72.11%	+15.48	4-8
1981-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-31	1403.31	1482.63	50.89%	48.65%	-26.03	4-9
1981-12-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-30	1377.28	1464.86	26.64%	72.99%	-17.19	4-10
1981-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 7-35	1360.09	1456.37	48.45%	51.09%	-31.81	4-11
1981-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1328.28	1627.38	22.67%	76.99%	-5.63	4-12
1981-09-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-24	1440.11	1555.33	45.73%	53.81%	-21.24	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-7	1418.87	1467.67	31.21%	68.39%	+26.80	1-1
1981-09-20	New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1445.67	1441.94	62.55%	37.02%	+16.57	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-18	1462.24	1612.51	20.22%	79.47%	-7.10	2-2
1981-10-04	Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1455.14	1403.57	68.73%	30.87%	-30.70	2-3
1981-10-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-14	1424.44	1450.32	58.48%	41.06%	+22.80	3-3
1981-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 32-0	1447.24	1409.37	42.74%	56.80%	+39.84	4-3
1981-10-25	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1487.08	1565.14	27.72%	71.90%	+15.43	5-3
1981-11-01	New York Jets	L 7-26	1502.51	1450.72	68.75%	30.84%	-37.14	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-26	1465.37	1403.90	46.09%	53.45%	-8.09	5-5
1981-11-15	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1457.28	1460.57	61.60%	37.96%	-13.22	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1444.06	1644.27	15.99%	83.75%	+32.78	6-6
1981-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-17	1476.84	1572.13	25.78%	73.85%	-8.47	6-7
1981-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-7	1468.37	1484.05	59.90%	39.65%	+8.53	7-7
1981-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1476.90	1482.05	36.82%	62.74%	+24.59	8-7
1981-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1501.49	1643.38	41.96%	57.59%	+12.37	9-7
1981-09-06	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-31	1469.32	1517.73	31.26%	68.34%	-21.61	0-1
1981-09-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-31	1447.71	1488.32	56.42%	43.13%	-7.00	0-2
1981-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-38	1440.71	1487.07	31.51%	68.08%	-20.71	0-3
1981-09-27	Houston Oilers	W 33-17	1420.00	1537.80	45.36%	54.17%	+26.88	1-3
1981-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	T 28-28	1446.88	1573.80	22.47%	77.20%	+1.69	1-3
1981-10-11	New England Patriots	W 28-24	1448.57	1502.25	54.56%	44.98%	+11.17	2-3
1981-10-18	Buffalo Bills	W 33-14	1459.74	1571.57	46.22%	53.32%	+28.83	3-3
1981-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-19	1488.57	1369.52	76.39%	23.26%	-37.85	3-4
1981-11-01	@ New York Giants	W 26-7	1450.72	1502.51	30.84%	68.75%	+37.14	4-4
1981-11-08	@ Baltimore Colts	W 41-14	1487.86	1343.32	57.96%	41.59%	+26.83	5-4
1981-11-15	@ New England Patriots	W 17-6	1514.69	1483.62	41.79%	57.76%	+23.75	6-4
1981-11-22	Miami Dolphins	W 16-15	1538.44	1540.61	61.75%	37.81%	+4.70	7-4
1981-11-29	Baltimore Colts	W 25-0	1543.14	1292.26	87.32%	12.46%	+7.72	8-4
1981-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1550.86	1415.15	56.72%	42.82%	-14.07	8-5
1981-12-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-13	1536.79	1426.95	53.04%	46.50%	+5.77	9-5
1981-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 28-3	1542.56	1488.18	69.07%	30.52%	+18.96	10-5
1981-09-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-9	1556.07	1500.87	45.19%	54.34%	-7.93	0-1
1981-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 36-10	1548.14	1486.84	46.06%	53.47%	+33.82	1-1
1981-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1581.96	1458.01	76.89%	22.76%	+8.93	2-1
1981-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-16	1590.89	1497.14	50.73%	48.81%	-25.17	2-2
1981-10-04	Denver Broncos	L 0-17	1565.72	1541.35	65.28%	34.30%	-33.36	2-3
1981-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-27	1532.36	1497.64	42.30%	57.25%	-27.28	2-4
1981-10-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 18-16	1505.08	1508.32	61.60%	37.95%	+6.66	3-4
1981-10-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-28	1511.74	1546.12	57.29%	42.25%	-23.56	3-5
1981-11-01	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1488.18	1510.78	58.94%	40.61%	+15.94	4-5
1981-11-08	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-17	1504.12	1475.72	41.41%	58.13%	-5.14	4-6
1981-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1498.98	1576.19	27.82%	71.80%	+35.58	5-6
1981-11-22	San Diego Chargers	L 21-55	1534.56	1513.15	64.89%	34.68%	-46.90	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 32-31	1487.66	1421.70	46.73%	52.80%	+6.55	6-7
1981-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-27	1494.21	1593.95	47.95%	51.59%	+11.09	7-7
1981-12-13	Chicago Bears	L 6-23	1505.30	1384.76	76.54%	23.11%	-39.09	7-8
1981-12-21	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-23	1466.21	1578.29	23.98%	75.66%	-10.74	7-9
1981-09-06	@ New York Giants	W 24-10	1555.33	1440.11	53.81%	45.73%	+21.23	1-0
1981-09-13	New England Patriots	W 13-3	1576.56	1528.13	68.34%	31.25%	+12.28	2-0
1981-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1588.84	1577.90	39.00%	60.55%	+18.39	3-0
1981-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 36-13	1607.23	1425.93	82.22%	17.50%	+10.41	4-0
1981-10-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1617.64	1570.02	68.24%	31.35%	+6.75	5-0
1981-10-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1624.39	1392.54	69.47%	30.13%	+15.42	6-0
1981-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-35	1639.81	1510.42	55.82%	43.72%	-23.98	6-1
1981-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1615.83	1501.66	75.88%	23.77%	+9.33	7-1
1981-11-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1625.16	1589.58	66.72%	32.86%	-14.32	7-2
1981-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 52-10	1610.84	1416.99	64.66%	34.91%	+28.09	8-2
1981-11-15	Baltimore Colts	W 38-13	1638.93	1316.49	91.21%	8.62%	+5.34	9-2
1981-11-22	New York Giants	L 10-20	1644.27	1444.06	83.75%	15.99%	-32.78	9-3
1981-11-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1611.49	1535.91	48.11%	51.42%	-10.34	9-4
1981-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-15	1601.15	1453.55	58.39%	41.16%	-10.24	9-5
1981-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-21	1590.91	1630.03	32.41%	67.17%	-13.35	9-6
1981-12-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-0	1577.56	1457.46	76.50%	23.15%	+17.72	10-6
1981-09-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 33-37	1522.73	1496.46	65.53%	34.05%	-16.24	0-1
1981-09-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-30	1506.49	1525.70	34.97%	64.60%	-19.42	0-2
1981-09-20	New York Jets	W 38-10	1487.07	1440.71	68.08%	31.51%	+20.71	1-2
1981-09-27	New England Patriots	W 27-21	1507.78	1491.79	64.18%	35.39%	+10.76	2-2
1981-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-6	1518.54	1414.52	52.20%	47.33%	+21.98	3-2
1981-10-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-7	1540.52	1484.77	69.24%	30.36%	+9.24	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-34	1549.76	1510.98	42.87%	56.68%	-27.66	4-3
1981-10-26	Houston Oilers	W 26-13	1522.10	1507.03	64.06%	35.51%	+15.90	5-3
1981-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1538.00	1557.53	59.37%	40.18%	-12.75	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1525.25	1391.61	56.43%	43.11%	-12.12	5-5
1981-11-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-20	1513.13	1569.26	30.31%	69.29%	+32.13	6-5
1981-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 32-10	1545.26	1490.74	45.10%	54.44%	+31.67	7-5
1981-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-0	1576.93	1501.07	71.64%	27.97%	+17.02	8-5
1981-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-30	1593.95	1494.21	51.59%	47.95%	-11.09	8-6
1981-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1582.86	1592.68	60.71%	38.85%	-19.91	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-21	1562.95	1438.34	55.15%	44.39%	-6.84	8-8
1981-09-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-14	1527.48	1518.77	38.70%	60.86%	+41.32	1-0
1981-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 28-23	1568.80	1513.44	69.19%	30.40%	+8.45	2-0
1981-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 42-31	1577.25	1524.79	44.80%	54.73%	+22.51	3-0
1981-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-42	1599.76	1515.35	49.38%	50.15%	-25.99	3-1
1981-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1573.77	1432.48	78.61%	21.06%	+9.78	4-1
1981-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-33	1583.55	1497.67	72.79%	26.83%	-12.76	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Baltimore Colts	W 43-14	1570.79	1386.26	63.43%	36.13%	+24.17	5-2
1981-10-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1594.96	1391.52	65.91%	33.67%	-14.15	5-3
1981-11-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-20	1580.81	1569.69	63.54%	36.03%	+6.33	6-3
1981-11-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-40	1587.14	1530.10	69.40%	30.20%	-41.24	6-4
1981-11-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-44	1545.90	1403.73	57.63%	41.92%	-32.75	6-5
1981-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 55-21	1513.15	1534.56	34.68%	64.89%	+46.90	7-5
1981-11-29	Denver Broncos	W 34-17	1560.05	1572.66	60.32%	39.23%	+20.08	8-5
1981-12-06	Buffalo Bills	L 27-28	1580.13	1527.11	68.91%	30.69%	-8.54	8-6
1981-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-23	1571.59	1514.09	45.52%	54.01%	+6.70	9-6
1981-12-21	Oakland Raiders	W 23-10	1578.29	1466.21	75.66%	23.98%	+10.74	10-6
1981-09-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1466.01	1502.69	32.72%	66.86%	-10.75	0-1
1981-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 28-17	1455.26	1484.40	58.03%	41.52%	+17.09	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1472.35	1579.70	24.48%	75.16%	-12.53	1-2
1981-09-27	New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1459.82	1425.37	66.58%	33.00%	+10.84	2-2
1981-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-17	1470.66	1415.52	45.19%	54.35%	+24.31	3-2
1981-10-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 45-14	1494.97	1606.04	46.32%	53.21%	+36.75	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-3	1531.72	1411.71	54.49%	45.05%	+17.68	5-2
1981-10-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1549.40	1551.32	61.78%	37.78%	+8.13	6-2
1981-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1557.53	1538.00	40.18%	59.37%	+12.75	7-2
1981-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1570.28	1577.54	61.06%	38.50%	+8.28	8-2
1981-11-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 12-15	1578.56	1474.70	74.79%	24.85%	-16.05	8-3
1981-11-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 33-31	1562.51	1510.68	44.71%	54.82%	+9.62	9-3
1981-11-29	New York Giants	W 17-10	1572.13	1476.84	73.85%	25.78%	+8.47	10-3
1981-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-3	1580.60	1628.58	31.31%	68.28%	+35.90	11-3
1981-12-13	Houston Oilers	W 28-6	1616.50	1449.22	81.01%	18.69%	+10.88	12-3
1981-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1627.38	1328.28	76.99%	22.67%	+5.63	13-3
1981-09-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-27	1458.78	1477.67	35.01%	64.56%	-10.65	0-1
1981-09-13	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1448.13	1508.81	53.56%	45.98%	+9.88	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1458.01	1581.96	22.76%	76.89%	-8.93	1-2
1981-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-20	1449.08	1502.27	54.63%	44.91%	-16.60	1-3
1981-10-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-24	1432.48	1573.77	21.06%	78.61%	-9.78	1-4
1981-10-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-35	1422.70	1522.40	25.30%	74.33%	-13.33	1-5
1981-10-18	New York Giants	L 0-32	1409.37	1447.24	56.80%	42.74%	-39.85	1-6
1981-10-25	@ New York Jets	W 19-3	1369.52	1488.57	23.26%	76.39%	+37.85	2-6
1981-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-34	1407.37	1388.14	40.14%	59.41%	-15.76	2-7
1981-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1391.61	1525.25	43.11%	56.43%	+12.12	3-7
1981-11-16	San Diego Chargers	W 44-23	1403.73	1545.90	41.92%	57.63%	+32.74	4-7
1981-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-40	1436.47	1559.06	22.90%	76.76%	-14.77	4-8
1981-11-29	Oakland Raiders	L 31-32	1421.70	1487.66	52.80%	46.73%	-6.55	4-9
1981-12-06	New York Jets	W 27-23	1415.15	1550.86	42.82%	56.72%	+14.06	5-9
1981-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1429.21	1560.61	22.02%	77.64%	-8.64	5-10
1981-12-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-21	1420.57	1421.18	61.96%	37.60%	+21.39	6-10
1981-09-06	Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1472.73	1499.61	58.35%	41.20%	-26.08	0-1
1981-09-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-30	1446.65	1578.61	21.97%	77.70%	-9.83	0-2
1981-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 40-30	1436.82	1440.88	61.49%	38.06%	+14.94	1-2
1981-09-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1451.76	1446.52	38.22%	61.33%	-15.01	1-3
1981-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1436.75	1619.61	36.35%	63.21%	+13.57	2-3
1981-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 14-34	1450.32	1424.44	41.06%	58.48%	-22.80	2-4
1981-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-41	1427.52	1552.23	22.69%	76.97%	-12.90	2-5
1981-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1414.62	1534.40	45.08%	54.46%	+24.35	3-5
1981-11-01	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-42	1438.97	1430.76	38.63%	60.93%	-21.98	3-6
1981-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-52	1416.99	1610.84	34.91%	64.66%	-28.10	3-7
1981-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 24-0	1388.89	1546.70	39.75%	59.80%	+36.33	4-7
1981-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-24	1425.22	1311.15	53.64%	45.90%	+18.89	5-7
1981-11-29	@ New England Patriots	W 27-20	1444.11	1453.19	36.30%	63.26%	+20.75	6-7
1981-12-06	New Orleans Saints	W 30-3	1464.86	1377.28	72.99%	26.64%	+17.19	7-7
1981-12-13	New York Giants	L 10-20	1482.05	1476.90	62.74%	36.82%	-24.59	7-8
1981-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-38	1457.46	1577.56	23.15%	76.50%	-17.73	7-9
1981-09-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-13	1458.45	1502.14	55.98%	43.56%	+15.29	1-0
1981-09-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-19	1473.74	1512.70	32.43%	67.15%	-12.08	1-1
1981-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-28	1461.66	1467.31	36.76%	62.80%	-15.14	1-2
1981-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1446.52	1451.76	61.33%	38.22%	+15.01	2-2
1981-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1461.53	1522.32	53.55%	45.99%	+24.22	3-2
1981-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1485.75	1434.28	44.66%	54.88%	+22.57	4-2
1981-10-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-18	1508.32	1505.08	37.95%	61.60%	-6.66	4-3
1981-10-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-20	1501.66	1615.83	23.77%	75.88%	-9.33	4-4
1981-11-01	Chicago Bears	W 20-10	1492.33	1405.67	72.88%	26.74%	+10.50	5-4
1981-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-25	1502.83	1504.48	37.29%	62.27%	-17.94	5-5
1981-11-15	Denver Broncos	L 7-24	1484.89	1566.43	50.57%	48.97%	-25.87	5-6
1981-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 37-3	1459.02	1421.32	66.99%	32.59%	+23.61	6-6
1981-11-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-14	1482.63	1403.31	48.65%	50.89%	+26.03	7-6
1981-12-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1508.66	1553.97	55.75%	43.79%	+5.43	8-6
1981-12-13	San Diego Chargers	L 23-24	1514.09	1571.59	54.01%	45.52%	-6.70	8-7
1981-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1507.39	1552.39	31.68%	67.91%	+14.58	9-7
1981-09-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-26	1494.49	1551.80	54.04%	45.50%	-26.82	0-1
1981-09-13	New York Giants	L 7-17	1467.67	1418.87	68.39%	31.21%	-26.79	0-2
1981-09-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 30-40	1440.88	1436.82	38.06%	61.49%	-14.95	0-3
1981-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-36	1425.93	1607.23	17.50%	82.22%	-10.41	0-4
1981-10-04	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-30	1415.52	1470.66	54.35%	45.19%	-24.31	0-5
1981-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1391.21	1445.92	30.48%	69.11%	+35.31	1-5
1981-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-13	1426.52	1556.51	22.16%	77.50%	-4.76	1-6
1981-10-25	New England Patriots	W 24-22	1421.76	1519.78	48.19%	51.34%	+9.00	2-6
1981-11-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-21	1430.76	1438.97	60.93%	38.63%	+21.98	3-6
1981-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 33-31	1452.74	1503.51	54.98%	44.56%	+7.83	4-6
1981-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 30-27	1460.57	1457.28	37.96%	61.60%	+13.22	5-6
1981-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1473.79	1606.42	21.90%	77.77%	-10.17	5-7
1981-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1463.62	1517.04	30.64%	68.95%	-10.07	5-8
1981-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-13	1453.55	1601.15	41.16%	58.39%	+10.24	6-8
1981-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 38-14	1463.79	1272.76	83.02%	16.71%	+10.16	7-8
1981-12-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-7	1473.95	1488.77	35.54%	64.03%	+38.06	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-12-27	@ New York Jets	W 31-27	1539.45	1561.52	34.79%	65.21%	+16.11	1-0
1982-01-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-28	1555.56	1621.57	29.29%	70.71%	-9.57	1-1
1982-01-03	Buffalo Bills	W 28-21	1621.57	1555.56	70.71%	29.29%	+9.57	1-0
1982-01-10	San Diego Chargers	W 27-7	1631.14	1602.46	66.07%	33.93%	+18.74	2-0
1982-01-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-26	1649.88	1649.63	50.04%	49.96%	-13.82	2-1
1982-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-0	1631.01	1521.97	75.57%	24.43%	+18.61	1-0
1982-01-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-28	1649.62	1644.89	38.36%	61.64%	-4.74	1-1
1982-01-02	San Diego Chargers	L 38-41	1592.64	1589.03	62.76%	37.24%	-13.42	0-1
1981-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1513.86	1595.28	27.49%	72.51%	+21.93	1-0
1982-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1535.79	1633.01	25.71%	74.29%	-11.88	1-1
1981-12-27	Buffalo Bills	L 27-31	1561.52	1539.45	65.21%	34.79%	-16.11	0-1
1981-12-27	New York Giants	L 21-27	1595.28	1513.86	72.51%	27.49%	-21.94	0-1
1982-01-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-38	1589.03	1592.64	37.24%	62.76%	+13.43	1-0
1982-01-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1602.46	1631.14	33.93%	66.07%	-18.74	1-1
1982-01-03	New York Giants	W 38-24	1633.01	1535.79	74.29%	25.71%	+11.88	1-0
1982-01-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-27	1644.89	1649.62	61.64%	38.36%	+4.74	2-0
1982-01-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-21	1649.63	1649.88	49.96%	50.04%	+13.81	3-0
1982-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-38	1521.97	1631.01	24.43%	75.57%	-18.60	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1981-11-22	15.99%	New York Giants	1444.06	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1644.27	10
2	1981-11-08	17.07%	New Orleans Saints	1367.76	21	@ Los Angeles Rams	1554.29	13
3	1981-11-08	18.61%	Chicago Bears	1395.17	16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1563.36	13
4	1981-11-29	22.26%	Green Bay Packers	1397.72	35	@ Minnesota Vikings	1526.73	23
5	1981-12-13	23.11%	Chicago Bears	1384.76	23	@ Oakland Raiders	1505.30	6
6	1981-10-25	23.26%	Seattle Seahawks	1369.52	19	@ New York Jets	1488.57	3
7	1981-11-15	24.85%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1474.70	15	@ San Francisco 49ers	1578.56	12
8	1981-10-11	26.83%	Minnesota Vikings	1497.67	33	@ San Diego Chargers	1583.55	31
9	1981-12-27 *	27.49%	New York Giants	1513.86	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1595.28	21
10	1981-11-22	27.50%	New Orleans Saints	1387.83	27	@ Houston Oilers	1467.77	24
11	1981-10-25	27.72%	New York Giants	1487.08	27	@ Atlanta Falcons	1565.14	24
12	1981-11-15	27.82%	Oakland Raiders	1498.98	33	@ Miami Dolphins	1576.19	17
13	1981-09-06	29.78%	Green Bay Packers	1446.73	16	@ Chicago Bears	1507.29	9
14	1981-11-08	30.20%	Cincinnati Bengals	1530.10	40	@ San Diego Chargers	1587.14	17
15	1981-09-06	30.23%	Baltimore Colts	1479.89	29	@ New England Patriots	1536.73	28
16	1981-11-15	30.31%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1513.13	34	@ Atlanta Falcons	1569.26	20
17	1981-10-11	30.48%	Washington Redskins	1391.21	24	@ Chicago Bears	1445.92	7
18	1981-12-06	30.69%	Buffalo Bills	1527.11	28	@ San Diego Chargers	1580.13	27
19	1981-11-01	30.84%	New York Jets	1450.72	26	@ New York Giants	1502.51	7
20	1981-10-04	30.87%	Green Bay Packers	1403.57	27	@ New York Giants	1455.14	14
21	1981-09-13	31.21%	New York Giants	1418.87	17	@ Washington Redskins	1467.67	7
22	1981-12-06	31.31%	San Francisco 49ers	1580.60	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1628.58	3
23	1981-12-20	31.68%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1507.39	20	@ Detroit Lions	1552.39	17
24	1981-11-01	32.86%	Dallas Cowboys	1589.58	17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1625.16	14
25	1981-09-20	33.06%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1461.30	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1495.32	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1981-11-22	46.90	San Diego Chargers	55	1513.15	34.68%	@ Oakland Raiders	21	1534.56	64.89%
2	1981-09-07	41.32	San Diego Chargers	44	1527.48	38.70%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1518.77	60.86%
3	1981-11-08	41.24	Cincinnati Bengals	40	1530.10	30.20%	@ San Diego Chargers	17	1587.14	69.40%
4	1981-10-18	39.85	New York Giants	32	1447.24	42.74%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1409.37	56.80%
5	1981-12-13	39.09	Chicago Bears	23	1384.76	23.11%	@ Oakland Raiders	6	1505.30	76.54%
6	1981-09-13	38.56	Buffalo Bills	35	1539.34	44.58%	@ Baltimore Colts	3	1488.48	54.96%
7	1981-12-20	38.06	Washington Redskins	30	1473.95	35.54%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1488.77	64.03%
8	1981-10-25	37.85	Seattle Seahawks	19	1369.52	23.26%	@ New York Jets	3	1488.57	76.39%
9	1981-11-01	37.14	New York Jets	26	1450.72	30.84%	@ New York Giants	7	1502.51	68.75%
10	1981-10-11	36.75	@ San Francisco 49ers	45	1494.97	46.32%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1606.04	53.21%
11	1981-11-15	36.33	@ St. Louis Cardinals	24	1388.89	39.75%	Buffalo Bills	0	1546.70	59.80%
12	1981-12-06	35.90	San Francisco 49ers	21	1580.60	31.31%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1628.58	68.28%
13	1981-11-15	35.58	Oakland Raiders	33	1498.98	27.82%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1576.19	71.80%
14	1981-10-11	35.31	Washington Redskins	24	1391.21	30.48%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1445.92	69.11%
15	1981-09-14	33.82	Oakland Raiders	36	1548.14	46.06%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1486.84	53.47%
16	1981-10-04	33.36	Denver Broncos	17	1541.35	34.30%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1565.72	65.28%
17	1981-11-29	33.21	Green Bay Packers	35	1397.72	22.26%	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1526.73	77.41%
18	1981-11-22	32.78	New York Giants	20	1444.06	15.99%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1644.27	83.75%
19	1981-11-16	32.75	@ Seattle Seahawks	44	1403.73	41.92%	San Diego Chargers	23	1545.90	57.63%
20	1981-11-15	32.13	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1513.13	30.31%	@ Atlanta Falcons	20	1569.26	69.29%
21	1981-12-13	31.81	Green Bay Packers	35	1456.37	51.09%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1360.09	48.45%
22	1981-11-22	31.67	Pittsburgh Steelers	32	1545.26	45.10%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1490.74	54.44%
23	1981-10-11	30.99	Cincinnati Bengals	41	1479.99	46.27%	@ Baltimore Colts	19	1417.25	53.27%
24	1981-10-04	30.71	Green Bay Packers	27	1403.57	30.87%	@ New York Giants	14	1455.14	68.73%
25	1981-09-27	29.79	Minnesota Vikings	30	1460.87	41.29%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1433.36	58.26%