1980 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1976

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1960

Biggest Overachiever

Atlanta Falcons

2.99 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.01 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New Orleans Saints

4.00 wins below expected

1 wins · 5.00 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	5	.688	-	357	310	+47	8.69	+2.31
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	11	5	.688	-	295	251	+44	8.98	+2.02
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	2	352	313	+39	10.03	-1.03
4	Cincinnati Bengals	6	10	.375	5	244	312	-68	6.25	-0.25

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	11	5	.688	-	320	260	+60	8.85	+2.15
2	New England Patriots	10	6	.625	1	441	325	+116	9.79	+0.21
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	3	266	305	-39	8.08	-0.08
4	Baltimore Colts	7	9	.438	4	355	387	-32	7.29	-0.29
5	New York Jets	4	12	.250	7	302	395	-93	6.04	-2.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	11	5	.688	-	418	327	+91	9.88	+1.12
2	Oakland Raiders Playoffs	11	5	.688	-	364	306	+58	8.73	+2.27
3	Kansas City Chiefs	8	8	.500	3	319	336	-17	7.04	+0.96
4	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	3	310	323	-13	8.24	-0.24
5	Seattle Seahawks	4	12	.250	7	291	408	-117	6.94	-2.94

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	9	7	0	.562	-	317	308	+9	7.89	+1.11
2	Detroit Lions	9	7	0	.562	-	334	272	+62	9.23	-0.23
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	0	.438	2	304	264	+40	7.80	-0.80
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	10	1	.344	3.5	271	341	-70	7.17	-1.67
5	Green Bay Packers	5	10	1	.344	3.5	231	371	-140	6.90	-1.40

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	-	454	311	+143	10.20	+1.80
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	12	4	.750	-	384	222	+162	10.42	+1.58
3	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	6	261	293	-32	6.80	-0.80
4	St. Louis Cardinals	5	11	.312	7	299	350	-51	6.89	-1.89
5	New York Giants	4	12	.250	8	249	425	-176	5.70	-1.70

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	12	4	.750	-	405	272	+133	9.01	+2.99
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	424	289	+135	9.42	+1.58
3	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	6	320	415	-95	6.73	-0.73
4	New Orleans Saints	1	15	.062	11	291	487	-196	5.00	-4.00

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Oakland Raiders 27

Houston Oilers 7

Dec 28

Divisional Round

San Diego Chargers 20

Buffalo Bills 14

Jan 3

Oakland Raiders 14

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Oakland Raiders 34

San Diego Chargers 27

Jan 11

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 34

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 28

Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles 31

Minnesota Vikings 16

Jan 3

Dallas Cowboys 30

Atlanta Falcons 27

Jan 4

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 20

Dallas Cowboys 7

Jan 11

Super Bowl

Oakland Raiders 27

Philadelphia Eagles 10

Jan 25

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1644	12	10.20	+1.80	89.80%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1641	12	10.42	+1.58	87.19%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1632	12	9.01	+2.99	97.33%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1629	11	9.42	+1.58	86.77%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1605	11	8.73	+2.27	93.14%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1599	10	9.79	+0.21	64.57%	1	7	8	10	11	13	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1593	11	8.98	+2.02	90.59%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1589	11	9.88	+1.12	80.71%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1574	11	8.69	+2.31	93.07%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1571	11	8.85	+2.15	91.68%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1566	9	10.03	-1.03	39.38%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1523	9	7.89	+1.11	80.17%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1518	7	7.80	-0.80	44.94%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1508	9	9.23	-0.23	56.01%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1503	8	8.24	-0.24	55.97%	0	5	7	8	10	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1500	8	8.08	-0.08	59.44%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1491	8	7.04	+0.96	78.15%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1483	6	6.80	-0.80	44.90%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1441	7	7.29	-0.29	55.39%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1438	6	6.25	-0.25	56.71%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1409	5	6.89	-1.89	24.39%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1406	6	6.73	-0.73	46.37%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1398	4	6.04	-2.04	21.26%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1376	5.5	7.17	-1.67	20.29%	0	4	6	7	8	10	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1371	4	6.94	-2.94	10.43%	0	4	6	7	8	10	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1367	5.5	6.90	-1.40	24.23%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1337	4	5.70	-1.70	27.52%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1289	1	5.00	-4.00	1.76%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-	-
Houston Oilers	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (2.8 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	-
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.45%	1.12%	1.56%	2.46%	0.45%	0.45%	—	6.47%
7–13	1.12%	3.12%	5.36%	3.35%	2.46%	0.67%	0.89%	16.96%
14–20	1.56%	5.36%	11.16%	5.58%	3.35%	1.79%	0.22%	29.02%
21–27	2.46%	3.35%	5.58%	8.48%	2.68%	2.01%	0.67%	25.22%
28–34	0.45%	2.46%	3.35%	2.68%	1.79%	0.89%	0.89%	12.50%
35–41	0.45%	0.67%	1.79%	2.01%	0.89%	1.34%	—	7.14%
42+	—	0.89%	0.22%	0.67%	0.89%	—	—	2.68%
Total	6.47%	16.96%	29.02%	25.22%	12.50%	7.14%	2.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.49	20.49	+0.00
SD	10.32	10.32	14.45
CV	0.50	0.50	—
Max	61	61	+54
Min	0	0	-54

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	50.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.31	17.00	+8.31
SD	11.05	6.14	10.25
CV	0.44	0.36	—
Max	43	28	+27
Min	7	6	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	24.19	-2.00
SD	8.15	10.36	10.39
CV	0.37	0.43	—
Max	35	47	+14
Min	10	9	-26

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	16.25	+3.75
SD	8.97	8.93	11.45
CV	0.45	0.55	—
Max	35	30	+18
Min	2	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	16.50	+2.50
SD	13.98	10.81	20.19
CV	0.74	0.66	—
Max	61	38	+54
Min	3	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	—	18.75%	—	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	12.50%	31.25%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	19.50	-4.25
SD	8.98	9.59	10.86
CV	0.59	0.49	—
Max	34	33	+14
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	19.38	+2.94
SD	7.29	8.24	10.38
CV	0.33	0.43	—
Max	34	34	+24
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
Total	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	18.75%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.38	19.44	+8.94
SD	13.64	12.62	18.80
CV	0.48	0.65	—
Max	59	41	+45
Min	10	3	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.38	20.19	-0.81
SD	10.02	6.55	11.80
CV	0.52	0.32	—
Max	41	31	+21
Min	3	9	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	17.00	+3.88
SD	9.82	10.81	16.15
CV	0.47	0.64	—
Max	41	43	+22
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.44	23.19	-8.75
SD	7.25	15.14	17.92
CV	0.50	0.65	—
Max	25	61	+13
Min	3	3	-54

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	12.50%	31.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.44	15.69	+2.75
SD	7.91	10.69	9.89
CV	0.43	0.68	—
Max	38	34	+20
Min	6	0	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	56.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.94	21.00	-1.06
SD	9.54	5.51	10.41
CV	0.48	0.26	—
Max	38	31	+17
Min	6	13	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.50	18.06	+8.44
SD	14.17	10.13	15.62
CV	0.53	0.56	—
Max	51	41	+30
Min	7	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	56.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.62	19.06	-2.44
SD	7.92	6.52	12.14
CV	0.48	0.34	—
Max	35	34	+21
Min	0	13	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.81	19.25	+0.56
SD	12.43	9.90	17.55
CV	0.63	0.51	—
Max	39	42	+34
Min	0	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.56	20.31	+7.25
SD	10.55	10.90	14.51
CV	0.38	0.54	—
Max	47	38	+34
Min	13	0	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	6.25%	43.75%	12.50%	31.25%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.19	30.44	-12.25
SD	8.95	8.29	9.33
CV	0.49	0.27	—
Max	35	45	+1
Min	3	20	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	37.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	26.56	-11.00
SD	12.32	8.82	13.33
CV	0.79	0.33	—
Max	41	44	+6
Min	0	12	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%	12.50%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	31.25%	18.75%	25.00%	18.75%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	24.69	-5.81
SD	6.09	9.21	8.49
CV	0.32	0.37	—
Max	31	38	+7
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	18.75%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.75	19.12	+3.62
SD	11.14	8.28	10.56
CV	0.49	0.43	—
Max	45	34	+19
Min	7	3	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	13.88	+10.12
SD	8.65	9.47	13.18
CV	0.36	0.68	—
Max	42	35	+35
Min	10	0	-10

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.00	19.56	+2.44
SD	8.97	10.19	11.71
CV	0.41	0.52	—
Max	38	45	+35
Min	0	3	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	31.25%	25.00%	25.00%	—	12.50%	6.25%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.12	20.44	+5.69
SD	7.35	11.43	15.06
CV	0.28	0.56	—
Max	44	42	+37
Min	13	7	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	25.94	-5.94
SD	8.53	13.73	14.53
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	38	59	+12
Min	10	0	-45

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.19	25.50	-7.31
SD	7.73	12.32	15.52
CV	0.43	0.48	—
Max	31	51	+19
Min	3	0	-44

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.69	21.88	-3.19
SD	11.07	9.54	14.42
CV	0.59	0.44	—
Max	40	41	+33
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	25.00%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	21.31	-4.38
SD	8.13	8.05	9.36
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	30	38	+17
Min	0	9	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	25.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.31	18.31	-2.00
SD	10.98	9.78	15.46
CV	0.67	0.53	—
Max	40	39	+24
Min	0	0	-25

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.53	+0.4
Allowed	0.63	-0.4
Differential	0.87	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Atlanta Falcons	12	9.01	+2.99
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.69	+2.31
3	Oakland Raiders	11	8.73	+2.27
4	Buffalo Bills	11	8.85	+2.15
5	Houston Oilers	11	8.98	+2.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	1	5.00	-4.00
2	Seattle Seahawks	4	6.94	-2.94
3	New York Jets	4	6.04	-2.04
4	St. Louis Cardinals	5	6.89	-1.89
5	New York Giants	4	5.70	-1.70

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	9	Oct 19 – Dec 14	1 in 101
2	Oakland Raiders	6	Oct 12 – Nov 17	1 in 51
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Oct 5 – Oct 26	1 in 39
4	Buffalo Bills	5	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 34
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Oct 12 – Nov 9	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	14	Sep 7 – Dec 7	1 in 314
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	Oct 26 – Dec 21	1 in 119
3	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 28 – Nov 16	1 in 67
4	New York Giants	8	Sep 14 – Nov 2	1 in 38
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 30

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.37%	28.77%	16.58%	5.27%
Houston Oilers	25.68%	32.09%	28.95%	13.28%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	21.94%	30.44%	32.86%	14.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.01%	8.70%	21.61%	66.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
New England Patriots	46.17%	26.51%	15.59%	8.38%	3.34%
Buffalo Bills	26.70%	28.34%	22.11%	15.06%	7.80%
Miami Dolphins	15.98%	22.87%	25.99%	21.96%	13.20%
Baltimore Colts	8.41%	15.26%	22.28%	28.90%	25.16%
New York Jets	2.74%	7.03%	14.03%	25.70%	50.50%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	48.56%	25.15%	14.60%	8.02%	3.67%
Oakland Raiders	23.03%	27.69%	22.45%	16.67%	10.16%
Denver Broncos	16.44%	22.77%	24.82%	20.80%	15.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.20%	12.35%	19.52%	27.28%	34.66%
Seattle Seahawks	5.77%	12.04%	18.61%	27.23%	36.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	43.49%	24.37%	15.88%	10.35%	5.92%
Minnesota Vikings	18.73%	22.61%	22.20%	19.83%	16.64%
Chicago Bears	18.16%	22.26%	22.04%	20.41%	17.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10.81%	16.05%	20.36%	24.37%	28.41%
Green Bay Packers	8.81%	14.72%	19.54%	25.04%	31.89%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	48.94%	34.92%	11.19%	3.86%	1.09%
Dallas Cowboys	43.14%	38.31%	12.81%	4.47%	1.26%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.69%	11.63%	30.22%	30.77%	23.68%
Washington Redskins	3.14%	10.37%	29.26%	32.12%	25.11%
New York Giants	1.08%	4.77%	16.51%	28.77%	48.87%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	51.18%	33.41%	12.67%	2.74%
Atlanta Falcons	39.51%	40.29%	16.25%	3.95%
San Francisco 49ers	7.98%	20.24%	47.54%	24.24%
New Orleans Saints	1.33%	6.06%	23.54%	69.06%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.79%	15.90%	12.99%	10.72%	8.93%	7.53%	6.11%	5.10%	4.11%	2.93%	2.09%	1.61%	0.85%	0.33%
San Diego Chargers	18.28%	15.83%	13.17%	10.59%	8.95%	7.58%	6.28%	5.13%	4.23%	3.43%	2.57%	1.91%	1.34%	0.69%
New England Patriots	16.58%	14.85%	13.28%	10.39%	9.23%	8.09%	6.44%	5.57%	4.66%	3.72%	2.97%	2.05%	1.34%	0.84%
Houston Oilers	8.94%	9.21%	9.61%	9.90%	9.70%	9.44%	8.63%	8.27%	7.58%	5.95%	4.67%	4.06%	2.64%	1.40%
Buffalo Bills	8.30%	8.91%	9.16%	9.48%	9.44%	9.20%	8.29%	7.80%	7.19%	6.20%	5.67%	4.37%	3.45%	2.53%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.90%	7.88%	8.36%	9.28%	9.33%	9.51%	8.87%	8.86%	8.60%	6.82%	5.65%	4.84%	3.39%	1.72%
Oakland Raiders	6.73%	8.16%	8.88%	9.25%	9.51%	9.24%	8.72%	7.97%	7.45%	6.76%	6.02%	4.80%	3.96%	2.55%
Denver Broncos	4.53%	5.76%	6.72%	7.67%	7.95%	8.25%	8.95%	8.68%	8.67%	8.31%	7.65%	6.62%	5.95%	4.28%
Miami Dolphins	3.84%	5.26%	6.27%	7.01%	7.75%	8.40%	8.48%	9.09%	9.11%	8.52%	8.29%	6.98%	6.06%	4.94%
Baltimore Colts	1.83%	2.68%	3.54%	4.66%	5.24%	5.99%	7.35%	8.05%	8.58%	9.80%	10.57%	10.18%	10.35%	11.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.29%	2.13%	2.89%	3.85%	4.56%	5.18%	6.92%	7.40%	8.18%	10.14%	10.52%	11.25%	12.94%	12.76%
Seattle Seahawks	1.14%	1.82%	2.63%	3.59%	4.30%	5.12%	6.42%	7.23%	8.06%	10.02%	11.00%	11.64%	13.37%	13.66%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.53%	0.90%	1.37%	2.03%	2.77%	3.50%	4.52%	5.80%	7.45%	9.09%	11.86%	16.67%	17.08%	16.44%
New York Jets	0.33%	0.71%	1.12%	1.59%	2.35%	2.97%	4.00%	5.05%	6.13%	8.30%	10.47%	13.02%	17.28%	26.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Philadelphia Eagles	28.61%	18.16%	13.96%	11.30%	8.72%	6.14%	4.29%	3.15%	2.12%	1.46%	0.99%	0.60%	0.35%	0.15%
Dallas Cowboys	24.76%	16.93%	14.17%	12.38%	9.43%	6.99%	4.89%	3.72%	2.41%	1.71%	1.25%	0.78%	0.41%	0.19%
Los Angeles Rams	13.40%	15.37%	14.51%	12.09%	10.73%	9.96%	6.76%	5.19%	4.50%	2.97%	1.95%	1.43%	0.83%	0.32%
Detroit Lions	11.01%	14.34%	13.39%	11.43%	10.08%	8.73%	7.50%	6.15%	4.99%	4.33%	3.18%	2.44%	1.62%	0.82%
Atlanta Falcons	9.09%	12.12%	12.69%	12.17%	11.59%	11.48%	8.50%	6.52%	5.49%	3.94%	2.79%	1.96%	1.16%	0.48%
Minnesota Vikings	3.62%	5.80%	7.01%	8.06%	9.11%	9.22%	9.28%	9.17%	8.29%	7.96%	7.40%	6.30%	5.15%	3.61%
Chicago Bears	3.00%	5.42%	6.92%	7.80%	8.94%	9.22%	9.40%	9.21%	8.49%	8.35%	7.43%	6.51%	5.54%	3.77%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.74%	3.19%	4.29%	5.38%	6.60%	7.18%	8.37%	8.91%	9.14%	9.79%	9.93%	9.54%	8.86%	7.08%
San Francisco 49ers	0.93%	1.93%	2.96%	4.02%	5.49%	6.92%	8.21%	9.79%	12.13%	10.90%	10.54%	10.33%	8.92%	6.93%
Green Bay Packers	1.18%	2.47%	3.49%	4.75%	5.89%	6.63%	8.00%	8.55%	9.02%	10.32%	10.46%	10.54%	10.00%	8.69%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.38%	2.00%	2.86%	4.44%	5.22%	6.35%	8.60%	9.67%	9.83%	10.53%	10.75%	9.88%	9.37%	9.11%
Washington Redskins	0.95%	1.59%	2.42%	3.87%	4.76%	6.16%	8.55%	9.82%	10.15%	10.75%	11.51%	10.52%	9.79%	9.16%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.48%	0.88%	1.55%	2.15%	3.06%	4.78%	6.04%	7.39%	9.19%	11.29%	13.36%	16.58%	22.98%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.20%	0.45%	0.76%	1.28%	1.96%	2.88%	4.11%	6.04%	7.80%	10.52%	15.81%	21.44%	26.71%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Philadelphia Eagles	15.81%	12.25%	9.56%	8.44%	7.16%	6.65%	5.31%	5.55%	4.21%	4.35%	3.06%	3.14%	2.33%	2.39%	1.72%	1.66%	1.16%	1.21%	0.88%	0.78%	0.59%	0.55%	0.38%	0.32%	0.24%	0.18%	0.10%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	13.16%	11.00%	8.89%	8.13%	7.12%	6.81%	5.74%	5.91%	4.50%	4.83%	3.45%	3.49%	2.61%	2.75%	1.95%	1.92%	1.37%	1.39%	1.04%	0.95%	0.68%	0.71%	0.52%	0.41%	0.26%	0.20%	0.13%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.42%	9.98%	8.79%	7.74%	7.32%	6.06%	6.12%	4.87%	5.01%	3.94%	4.15%	3.33%	3.32%	2.50%	2.83%	2.09%	2.10%	1.56%	1.54%	1.22%	1.07%	0.81%	0.77%	0.54%	0.41%	0.27%	0.18%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	10.16%	9.11%	8.53%	7.46%	7.20%	6.14%	6.02%	5.04%	4.95%	4.17%	4.21%	3.47%	3.36%	2.65%	2.90%	2.36%	2.24%	1.61%	1.76%	1.35%	1.29%	0.98%	0.92%	0.71%	0.60%	0.40%	0.27%	0.14%
New England Patriots	9.01%	8.39%	8.26%	7.21%	7.17%	6.24%	5.97%	4.88%	5.01%	4.22%	4.53%	3.68%	3.53%	2.80%	3.02%	2.52%	2.45%	1.83%	1.95%	1.42%	1.56%	1.07%	0.99%	0.75%	0.62%	0.41%	0.34%	0.16%
Los Angeles Rams	6.32%	6.91%	6.99%	7.26%	6.39%	7.04%	5.47%	6.27%	5.15%	5.54%	4.20%	4.98%	3.72%	4.08%	2.58%	2.74%	2.46%	2.67%	1.77%	1.65%	1.33%	1.23%	0.92%	0.81%	0.59%	0.46%	0.28%	0.17%
Detroit Lions	5.00%	6.03%	6.11%	6.95%	5.86%	6.75%	5.20%	6.04%	4.92%	5.23%	4.04%	4.59%	3.89%	4.14%	3.13%	3.21%	2.64%	2.72%	2.39%	2.27%	1.79%	1.72%	1.44%	1.26%	0.93%	0.84%	0.55%	0.36%
Atlanta Falcons	3.90%	4.89%	5.22%	6.11%	5.53%	6.26%	5.36%	6.19%	5.36%	5.87%	4.70%	5.60%	4.47%	4.97%	3.15%	3.40%	3.07%	3.37%	2.23%	2.23%	1.68%	1.77%	1.33%	1.16%	0.79%	0.69%	0.43%	0.26%
Houston Oilers	4.42%	4.85%	4.98%	5.02%	5.20%	5.10%	5.40%	4.95%	5.17%	4.55%	5.27%	4.53%	4.59%	3.96%	4.55%	3.65%	3.78%	3.03%	3.12%	2.57%	2.44%	1.92%	2.02%	1.55%	1.32%	0.95%	0.72%	0.40%
Buffalo Bills	4.13%	4.34%	4.95%	4.62%	5.14%	4.59%	5.35%	4.67%	5.18%	4.51%	5.20%	4.31%	4.43%	3.69%	4.35%	3.78%	3.72%	3.08%	3.24%	2.89%	2.86%	2.31%	2.16%	1.81%	1.74%	1.24%	1.09%	0.62%
Oakland Raiders	3.36%	3.68%	4.41%	4.27%	4.94%	4.57%	5.19%	4.67%	5.19%	4.56%	5.15%	4.42%	4.71%	3.91%	4.47%	3.85%	3.97%	3.19%	3.61%	2.95%	3.09%	2.42%	2.42%	1.98%	1.98%	1.32%	1.14%	0.58%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.15%	3.82%	4.31%	4.26%	4.53%	4.51%	5.08%	4.71%	5.08%	4.52%	5.28%	4.60%	4.67%	4.10%	4.88%	4.08%	4.12%	3.55%	3.65%	3.02%	2.96%	2.37%	2.36%	1.98%	1.69%	1.25%	0.91%	0.54%
Denver Broncos	2.19%	2.49%	3.12%	3.04%	3.81%	3.57%	4.33%	3.79%	4.35%	4.00%	4.86%	4.28%	4.77%	3.99%	4.91%	4.35%	4.56%	3.85%	4.29%	3.90%	3.92%	3.22%	3.38%	2.77%	2.90%	2.24%	1.95%	1.16%
Miami Dolphins	1.64%	2.21%	2.69%	2.91%	3.42%	3.39%	3.89%	3.60%	4.26%	4.07%	4.72%	4.25%	4.46%	4.15%	5.09%	4.53%	4.66%	4.14%	4.42%	4.06%	4.33%	3.42%	3.64%	3.02%	3.03%	2.47%	2.30%	1.23%
Minnesota Vikings	1.39%	1.99%	2.37%	2.95%	3.08%	3.45%	3.45%	4.15%	3.91%	4.56%	4.06%	4.79%	4.34%	4.92%	3.98%	4.73%	4.28%	4.66%	3.89%	4.35%	3.63%	4.10%	3.38%	3.48%	2.96%	2.91%	2.30%	1.94%
Chicago Bears	1.15%	1.67%	2.15%	2.79%	2.87%	3.49%	3.29%	4.01%	3.85%	4.53%	3.89%	4.66%	4.46%	5.02%	4.08%	4.75%	4.22%	4.83%	4.16%	4.46%	3.77%	4.08%	3.59%	3.70%	3.08%	3.01%	2.43%	2.02%
Baltimore Colts	0.68%	1.06%	1.34%	1.51%	1.90%	2.00%	2.65%	2.39%	2.96%	2.80%	3.54%	3.23%	4.00%	3.56%	4.73%	4.17%	4.83%	4.01%	5.23%	4.90%	5.56%	4.69%	5.24%	4.78%	5.26%	4.52%	5.01%	3.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.58%	0.94%	1.28%	1.65%	1.78%	2.13%	2.31%	2.70%	2.92%	3.33%	3.16%	3.56%	3.75%	4.44%	3.88%	4.38%	4.32%	4.99%	4.53%	5.18%	4.70%	5.49%	4.74%	5.19%	4.74%	5.05%	4.16%	4.12%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.47%	0.75%	1.05%	1.21%	1.56%	1.61%	2.13%	2.04%	2.60%	2.41%	3.15%	2.94%	3.71%	3.23%	4.40%	4.13%	4.61%	4.06%	5.58%	4.90%	5.58%	4.92%	5.88%	5.43%	6.28%	5.33%	5.78%	4.26%
Green Bay Packers	0.39%	0.64%	0.90%	1.22%	1.43%	1.73%	1.94%	2.35%	2.49%	2.96%	2.80%	3.45%	3.46%	4.19%	3.54%	4.31%	4.27%	4.95%	4.62%	5.39%	4.83%	5.92%	5.30%	5.84%	5.07%	5.86%	4.91%	5.25%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.38%	0.70%	0.85%	1.11%	1.27%	1.52%	1.77%	2.21%	2.16%	2.88%	2.76%	3.17%	3.39%	4.40%	3.86%	4.90%	4.35%	5.38%	4.62%	5.69%	4.93%	5.98%	5.21%	5.53%	5.19%	5.40%	5.01%	5.38%
San Francisco 49ers	0.28%	0.50%	0.69%	0.99%	1.15%	1.48%	1.61%	2.02%	2.22%	2.72%	2.62%	3.55%	3.38%	4.23%	3.60%	4.86%	4.69%	6.44%	4.74%	5.67%	5.33%	6.26%	5.14%	5.93%	5.14%	5.47%	4.61%	4.67%
Seattle Seahawks	0.42%	0.66%	0.90%	1.03%	1.39%	1.51%	1.96%	1.91%	2.43%	2.36%	3.00%	2.83%	3.53%	3.18%	4.21%	4.01%	4.59%	4.03%	5.34%	5.10%	5.72%	5.21%	5.94%	5.67%	6.48%	5.70%	6.18%	4.70%
Washington Redskins	0.29%	0.49%	0.68%	0.85%	1.06%	1.27%	1.53%	1.95%	2.03%	2.59%	2.66%	3.15%	3.37%	4.33%	3.97%	4.77%	4.52%	5.42%	4.92%	5.61%	5.33%	6.19%	5.50%	5.87%	5.50%	5.66%	5.27%	5.24%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	0.29%	0.43%	0.51%	0.71%	0.80%	1.17%	1.08%	1.57%	1.51%	2.03%	1.89%	2.60%	2.41%	3.50%	3.11%	4.07%	3.80%	5.15%	4.69%	6.13%	5.74%	7.78%	7.36%	7.93%	8.03%	8.04%	7.51%
New York Jets	0.08%	0.20%	0.30%	0.41%	0.56%	0.67%	0.90%	0.86%	1.19%	1.34%	1.68%	1.64%	2.23%	2.14%	3.06%	2.84%	3.43%	3.23%	4.74%	4.44%	5.67%	5.36%	7.02%	6.67%	8.87%	8.45%	11.81%	10.21%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.13%	0.18%	0.24%	0.35%	0.45%	0.60%	0.78%	0.89%	1.10%	1.16%	1.56%	1.81%	2.47%	2.28%	2.96%	3.11%	3.95%	3.78%	4.65%	4.87%	6.11%	6.03%	7.26%	7.66%	9.64%	10.72%	15.20%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.11%	0.21%	0.27%	0.38%	0.45%	0.56%	0.67%	0.93%	1.12%	1.38%	1.37%	1.92%	2.38%	3.05%	2.78%	3.73%	4.38%	5.46%	6.00%	8.21%	8.77%	12.07%	13.37%	20.22%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.79%	15.70%	12.88%	11.42%	8.89%	30.32%
San Diego Chargers	18.28%	16.46%	13.83%	9.71%	8.65%	33.08%
New England Patriots	16.58%	15.23%	14.36%	9.60%	8.82%	35.41%
Houston Oilers	8.94%	8.51%	8.23%	11.46%	10.18%	52.69%
Buffalo Bills	8.30%	8.92%	9.48%	9.29%	9.34%	54.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.90%	7.35%	7.68%	10.08%	9.79%	58.19%
Oakland Raiders	6.73%	8.16%	8.14%	9.53%	9.76%	57.67%
Denver Broncos	4.53%	5.77%	6.15%	7.80%	8.20%	67.55%
Miami Dolphins	3.84%	5.37%	6.76%	6.56%	7.64%	69.82%
Baltimore Colts	1.83%	2.74%	3.83%	4.33%	5.13%	82.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.29%	2.11%	2.79%	3.73%	4.57%	85.50%
Seattle Seahawks	1.14%	1.96%	2.67%	3.35%	4.18%	86.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.53%	0.92%	1.56%	1.87%	2.70%	92.41%
New York Jets	0.33%	0.78%	1.64%	1.26%	2.16%	93.84%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	28.61%	14.06%	6.26%	20.86%	10.51%	19.69%
Dallas Cowboys	24.76%	12.44%	5.94%	22.57%	11.43%	22.85%
Los Angeles Rams	13.40%	17.52%	20.26%	7.46%	9.14%	32.22%
Detroit Lions	11.01%	16.52%	15.96%	7.33%	9.44%	39.74%
Atlanta Falcons	9.09%	13.69%	16.73%	8.86%	10.74%	40.89%
Minnesota Vikings	3.62%	6.80%	8.30%	5.87%	8.82%	66.58%
Chicago Bears	3.00%	6.47%	8.70%	5.24%	8.52%	68.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.74%	3.85%	5.21%	3.90%	6.28%	79.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.38%	1.36%	0.94%	5.40%	5.92%	85.00%
Green Bay Packers	1.18%	3.05%	4.58%	3.23%	5.55%	82.41%
Washington Redskins	0.95%	1.21%	0.98%	4.34%	5.38%	87.13%
San Francisco 49ers	0.93%	2.35%	4.71%	2.81%	4.91%	84.30%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.41%	0.41%	1.65%	2.26%	95.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.26%	1.00%	0.46%	1.11%	97.10%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+9.37%

Clear Edge

54.46%0.45%45.09%

Elo Value

Home Edge

21 Elo

0.048 points per Elo point

032.6760

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.99 points

Lean Home

-8+1.58+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 3.12% · Tough Road: 3.12% to 6.25% · Favored: 6.25% to 12.5% · Heavy Favorite: 12.5% and up.

Title-Race Openness

11.5

Wide Open

124815

Champion Preseason Odds

Oakland Raiders, 9th of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

7.5%

Favored

06.25%20%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.53 · As Expected: 1.53 to 2.11 · Elevated: 2.11 to 2.87 · High Variance: 2.87 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.76 · Close: 4.76 to 6.44 · Off Target: 6.44 to 8.4 · Well Off Target: 8.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.71 · As Expected: 2.71 to 4.52 · More Than Expected: 4.52 to 7.23 · Far More Than Expected: 7.23 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.72 wins

As Expected

01.925

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.00

Pinpoint

05.6015

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

97.33%

Atlanta Falcons

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

1.76%

New Orleans Saints

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 10

As Expected

03.610

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.74

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

No Contest

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

26%

Some Drama

0%19%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.24

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.83

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.42

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

38%

As Expected

0%38%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

28%

As Expected

0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.91

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.12

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.064

Within Noise

00.0940.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	70.34%	70.34%	44.24%	24.83%	14.48%
Dallas Cowboys	66.27%	66.27%	41.65%	23.32%	13.60%
Los Angeles Rams	61.06%	61.06%	35.24%	19.05%	10.74%
Atlanta Falcons	51.20%	51.20%	29.55%	15.99%	9.06%
New England Patriots	56.74%	56.74%	31.28%	17.12%	8.21%
San Diego Chargers	58.77%	58.77%	31.69%	16.98%	8.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.29%	60.29%	31.11%	15.49%	6.77%
Houston Oilers	38.08%	38.08%	20.85%	11.13%	5.35%
Oakland Raiders	34.29%	34.29%	18.80%	10.20%	4.95%
Buffalo Bills	36.65%	36.65%	18.65%	9.24%	4.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.70%	32.70%	16.99%	8.44%	3.88%
Detroit Lions	50.11%	50.11%	17.86%	6.46%	2.65%
Minnesota Vikings	24.89%	24.89%	9.17%	3.55%	1.61%
Denver Broncos	23.27%	23.27%	9.68%	3.87%	1.47%
Chicago Bears	23.85%	23.85%	8.52%	3.26%	1.39%
Miami Dolphins	22.01%	22.01%	8.93%	3.58%	1.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.54%	9.54%	3.73%	1.44%	0.53%
Washington Redskins	9.72%	7.07%	2.88%	0.96%	0.36%
Baltimore Colts	11.63%	11.63%	3.88%	1.22%	0.36%
San Francisco 49ers	10.19%	10.19%	2.86%	0.72%	0.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.31%	7.26%	2.42%	0.64%	0.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.57%	4.57%	1.51%	0.51%	0.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.28%	13.28%	2.76%	0.62%	0.16%
Green Bay Packers	10.87%	10.87%	2.05%	0.43%	0.12%
Seattle Seahawks	7.70%	7.70%	1.91%	0.51%	0.12%
New York Jets	3.75%	3.75%	0.98%	0.28%	0.08%
New York Giants	3.91%	1.99%	0.50%	0.11%	0.03%
New Orleans Saints	1.61%	1.61%	0.28%	0.05%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		30.2%0.50%	46.9%0.24%	31.0%1.05%	42.5%0.97%	28.7%1.25%	41.5%0.45%	40.1%0.37%	31.4%0.54%	53.4%0.07%	26.8%1.24%	30.7%1.12%	31.0%1.16%	56.8%0.49%
Buffalo Bills	69.8%0.50%		69.7%0.55%	49.0%2.33%	60.0%1.94%	46.3%2.53%	62.5%1.01%	60.6%0.88%	43.7%0.74%	71.1%0.16%	47.3%2.31%	50.4%2.60%	48.4%2.20%	76.5%0.87%
Cincinnati Bengals	53.1%0.24%	30.3%0.55%		30.3%0.25%	33.5%0.44%	29.5%0.27%	42.3%0.21%	38.3%0.37%	27.8%0.49%	54.1%0.11%	27.2%0.54%	30.8%0.28%	28.2%0.57%	56.2%0.24%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	69.0%1.05%	51.0%2.33%	69.7%0.25%		60.6%2.09%	47.6%1.66%	62.8%1.01%	60.4%1.71%	45.0%2.32%	73.7%0.41%	44.8%2.61%	50.9%1.09%	47.2%2.37%	78.9%0.96%
Denver Broncos	57.5%0.97%	40.0%1.94%	66.5%0.44%	39.4%2.09%		37.0%2.25%	50.3%0.38%	48.5%1.44%	34.9%1.87%	65.4%0.35%	34.6%1.00%	42.7%2.11%	35.0%0.83%	71.7%0.32%
Houston Oilers	71.3%1.25%	53.7%2.53%	70.5%0.27%	52.4%1.66%	63.0%2.25%		65.4%1.12%	63.2%1.93%	48.1%2.59%	76.2%0.47%	49.9%2.83%	52.5%1.01%	51.2%2.66%	77.2%1.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	58.5%0.45%	37.5%1.01%	57.7%0.21%	37.2%1.01%	49.7%0.38%	34.6%1.12%		49.3%0.75%	32.7%0.99%	65.1%0.19%	29.5%0.50%	38.2%1.05%	31.8%0.49%	71.2%0.16%
Miami Dolphins	59.9%0.37%	39.4%0.88%	61.7%0.37%	39.6%1.71%	51.5%1.44%	36.8%1.93%	50.7%0.75%		37.1%0.74%	64.6%0.10%	33.4%1.72%	40.5%1.85%	37.9%1.71%	65.6%0.64%
New England Patriots	68.6%0.54%	56.3%0.74%	72.2%0.49%	55.0%2.32%	65.1%1.87%	51.9%2.59%	67.3%0.99%	62.9%0.74%		73.7%0.16%	47.5%2.24%	53.4%2.54%	51.4%2.27%	80.3%0.93%
New York Jets	46.6%0.07%	28.9%0.16%	45.9%0.11%	26.3%0.41%	34.6%0.35%	23.8%0.47%	34.9%0.19%	35.4%0.10%	26.3%0.16%		20.5%0.42%	29.9%0.41%	25.5%0.43%	54.2%0.14%
Oakland Raiders	73.2%1.24%	52.7%2.31%	72.8%0.54%	55.2%2.61%	65.4%1.00%	50.1%2.83%	70.5%0.50%	66.6%1.72%	52.5%2.24%	79.5%0.42%		55.4%2.72%	52.9%0.77%	78.2%0.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.3%1.12%	49.6%2.60%	69.2%0.28%	49.1%1.09%	57.3%2.11%	47.5%1.01%	61.8%1.05%	59.5%1.85%	46.6%2.54%	70.1%0.41%	44.6%2.72%		48.4%2.56%	78.3%0.98%
San Diego Chargers	69.0%1.16%	51.6%2.20%	71.8%0.57%	52.8%2.37%	65.0%0.83%	48.8%2.66%	68.2%0.49%	62.1%1.71%	48.6%2.27%	74.5%0.43%	47.1%0.77%	51.6%2.56%		80.4%0.34%
Seattle Seahawks	43.2%0.49%	23.5%0.87%	43.8%0.24%	21.1%0.96%	28.3%0.32%	22.8%1.05%	28.7%0.16%	34.4%0.64%	19.7%0.93%	45.8%0.14%	21.8%0.39%	21.7%0.98%	19.6%0.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		65.2%1.42%	48.1%5.13%	66.2%1.72%	82.0%0.82%	53.0%0.18%	66.2%1.43%	94.7%0.06%	85.3%0.47%	46.4%4.67%	80.4%0.36%	77.9%1.20%	80.9%0.95%	69.7%1.19%
Chicago Bears	34.8%1.42%		31.3%3.63%	51.6%0.44%	72.1%0.27%	34.1%1.09%	51.3%0.47%	81.2%0.10%	71.2%0.35%	31.0%3.42%	67.5%0.53%	65.2%0.96%	70.7%0.33%	55.6%0.75%
Dallas Cowboys	51.9%5.13%	68.7%3.63%		70.5%4.45%	82.6%2.37%	52.4%4.32%	68.3%3.95%	86.2%0.41%	89.5%0.53%	50.9%0.95%	81.5%1.94%	80.2%1.93%	82.5%2.77%	73.0%1.62%
Detroit Lions	33.8%1.72%	48.4%0.44%	29.5%4.45%		70.3%0.34%	32.7%1.46%	45.2%0.49%	81.3%0.12%	73.3%0.42%	30.3%4.27%	65.0%0.62%	64.0%1.13%	67.3%0.36%	53.0%0.94%
Green Bay Packers	18.0%0.82%	27.9%0.27%	17.4%2.37%	29.7%0.34%		15.6%0.73%	22.5%0.31%	65.6%0.06%	54.4%0.20%	15.6%2.05%	51.0%0.31%	41.6%0.61%	44.8%0.17%	33.4%0.52%
Los Angeles Rams	47.0%0.18%	65.9%1.09%	47.6%4.32%	67.3%1.46%	84.4%0.73%		64.5%1.18%	82.4%0.05%	81.6%0.40%	47.0%4.01%	82.2%0.27%	78.7%1.09%	79.4%0.84%	67.2%0.98%
Minnesota Vikings	33.8%1.43%	48.7%0.47%	31.7%3.95%	54.8%0.49%	77.5%0.31%	35.5%1.18%		87.1%0.08%	75.7%0.38%	32.2%3.71%	65.9%0.54%	68.5%0.98%	70.1%0.36%	54.4%0.82%
New Orleans Saints	5.3%0.06%	18.8%0.10%	13.8%0.41%	18.7%0.12%	34.4%0.06%	17.6%0.05%	12.9%0.08%		47.1%0.03%	11.5%0.37%	31.8%0.02%	27.6%0.10%	37.8%0.08%	15.1%0.07%
New York Giants	14.7%0.47%	28.8%0.35%	10.5%0.53%	26.7%0.42%	45.6%0.20%	18.4%0.40%	24.3%0.38%	52.9%0.03%		13.1%0.53%	34.5%0.15%	35.1%0.10%	45.5%0.25%	26.7%0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	53.6%4.67%	69.0%3.42%	49.1%0.95%	69.7%4.27%	84.4%2.05%	53.0%4.01%	67.8%3.71%	88.5%0.37%	86.9%0.53%		80.6%1.74%	79.7%1.75%	83.3%2.48%	75.2%1.42%
San Francisco 49ers	19.6%0.36%	32.5%0.53%	18.5%1.94%	35.0%0.62%	49.0%0.31%	17.8%0.27%	34.1%0.54%	68.2%0.02%	65.5%0.15%	19.4%1.74%		44.7%0.47%	54.1%0.33%	38.1%0.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	22.1%1.20%	34.8%0.96%	19.8%1.93%	36.0%1.13%	58.4%0.61%	21.3%1.09%	31.5%0.98%	72.4%0.10%	64.9%0.10%	20.3%1.75%	55.3%0.47%		60.1%0.68%	41.3%0.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19.1%0.95%	29.3%0.33%	17.5%2.77%	32.7%0.36%	55.2%0.17%	20.6%0.84%	29.9%0.36%	62.2%0.08%	54.5%0.25%	16.7%2.48%	45.9%0.33%	39.9%0.68%		34.0%0.56%
Washington Redskins	30.3%1.19%	44.4%0.75%	27.0%1.62%	47.0%0.94%	66.6%0.52%	32.8%0.98%	45.6%0.82%	84.9%0.07%	73.3%0.09%	24.8%1.42%	61.9%0.44%	58.7%0.32%	66.0%0.56%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			50.5%0.19%	32.7%1.29%	40.8%1.04%	29.4%1.53%	47.5%0.28%				28.8%1.46%	33.3%2.71%	29.5%2.78%	61.1%0.35%
Buffalo Bills			73.5%0.57%	49.9%4.56%	60.0%3.17%	46.8%5.37%	60.0%1.34%				46.3%4.37%	49.9%8.34%	47.5%7.82%	74.8%1.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.5%0.19%	26.5%0.57%			38.6%0.43%		40.7%0.14%	42.3%0.33%	29.0%1.06%	55.7%0.06%	26.6%0.55%		30.1%1.11%	57.4%0.14%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	67.3%1.29%	50.1%4.56%			60.4%2.73%		62.6%1.11%	60.7%2.78%	45.9%6.88%	75.9%0.46%	45.4%4.31%		47.5%7.72%	77.6%0.87%
Denver Broncos	59.2%1.04%	40.0%3.17%	61.4%0.43%	39.6%2.73%		37.6%3.21%		51.1%1.92%	36.8%4.91%	66.4%0.29%		40.6%5.58%
Houston Oilers	70.6%1.53%	53.2%5.37%			62.4%3.21%		64.0%1.25%	64.5%3.26%	49.2%8.15%	77.5%0.48%	49.2%5.11%		49.5%8.74%	79.3%0.99%
Kansas City Chiefs	52.5%0.28%	40.0%1.34%	59.3%0.14%	37.4%1.11%		36.0%1.25%		49.2%0.77%	32.8%2.15%	62.1%0.10%		39.5%2.40%
Miami Dolphins			57.7%0.33%	39.3%2.78%	48.9%1.92%	35.5%3.26%	50.8%0.77%				35.5%2.48%	40.1%5.01%	37.7%4.78%	69.2%0.68%
New England Patriots			71.0%1.06%	54.1%6.88%	63.2%4.91%	50.8%8.15%	67.2%2.15%				50.3%7.51%	54.9%12.46%	51.7%12.00%	80.4%1.62%
New York Jets			44.3%0.06%	24.1%0.46%	33.6%0.29%	22.5%0.48%	37.9%0.10%				20.1%0.46%	27.2%0.95%	22.9%0.86%	60.6%0.09%
Oakland Raiders	71.2%1.46%	53.7%4.37%	73.4%0.55%	54.6%4.31%		50.8%5.11%		64.5%2.48%	49.7%7.51%	79.9%0.46%		54.4%8.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.7%2.71%	50.1%8.34%			59.4%5.58%		60.5%2.40%	59.9%5.01%	45.1%12.46%	72.8%0.95%	45.6%8.04%		46.3%12.97%	74.5%1.84%
San Diego Chargers	70.5%2.78%	52.5%7.82%	69.9%1.11%	52.5%7.72%		50.5%8.74%		62.3%4.78%	48.3%12.00%	77.1%0.86%		53.7%12.97%
Seattle Seahawks	38.9%0.35%	25.2%1.12%	42.6%0.14%	22.4%0.87%		20.7%0.99%		30.8%0.68%	19.6%1.62%	39.4%0.09%		25.5%1.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		65.9%3.56%	47.9%13.79%	66.8%7.98%	83.8%1.69%		65.7%3.80%		81.2%0.44%	47.7%14.82%		76.8%1.48%	80.8%2.26%	71.0%1.38%
Chicago Bears	34.1%3.56%		32.3%6.53%			34.2%4.62%		77.5%0.09%	72.0%0.18%	31.9%6.81%	64.0%0.78%	63.8%0.71%		51.3%0.57%
Dallas Cowboys	52.1%13.79%	67.7%6.53%		68.8%13.54%	83.4%2.81%	52.2%16.50%	67.7%6.62%	88.8%0.47%			79.7%2.66%		81.8%3.36%
Detroit Lions	33.2%7.98%		31.2%13.54%			33.5%9.34%		79.3%0.24%	74.0%0.46%	31.7%13.90%	66.5%1.60%	63.6%1.46%		58.3%1.59%
Green Bay Packers	16.2%1.69%		16.6%2.81%			16.2%2.07%		60.3%0.06%	50.0%0.07%	17.5%3.19%	42.8%0.31%	35.5%0.36%		29.8%0.32%
Los Angeles Rams		65.8%4.62%	47.8%16.50%	66.5%9.34%	83.8%2.07%		64.3%4.75%		83.2%0.46%	47.8%17.10%		76.6%1.78%	82.5%2.50%	68.5%1.93%
Minnesota Vikings	34.3%3.80%		32.3%6.62%			35.7%4.75%		82.2%0.11%	69.3%0.21%	33.2%7.20%	69.0%0.82%	64.4%0.80%		55.3%0.60%
New Orleans Saints		22.5%0.09%	11.2%0.47%	20.7%0.24%	39.7%0.06%		17.8%0.11%		41.2%0.02%	11.8%0.48%		42.9%0.03%	35.2%0.09%	18.5%0.03%
New York Giants	18.8%0.44%	28.0%0.18%		26.0%0.46%	50.0%0.07%	16.8%0.46%	30.7%0.21%	58.8%0.02%			46.9%0.05%		41.4%0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	52.3%14.82%	68.1%6.81%		68.3%13.90%	82.5%3.19%	52.2%17.10%	66.8%7.20%	88.2%0.48%			80.7%3.08%		82.1%3.76%
San Francisco 49ers		36.0%0.78%	20.3%2.66%	33.5%1.60%	57.2%0.31%		31.0%0.82%		53.1%0.05%	19.3%3.08%		47.3%0.23%	60.1%0.40%	38.7%0.27%
St. Louis Cardinals	23.2%1.48%	36.2%0.71%		36.4%1.46%	64.5%0.36%	23.4%1.78%	35.6%0.80%	57.1%0.03%			52.7%0.23%		52.7%0.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19.2%2.26%		18.2%3.36%			17.5%2.50%		64.8%0.09%	58.6%0.10%	17.9%3.76%	39.9%0.40%	47.3%0.43%		34.5%0.38%
Washington Redskins	29.0%1.38%	48.7%0.57%		41.7%1.59%	70.2%0.32%	31.5%1.93%	44.7%0.60%	81.5%0.03%			61.3%0.27%		65.5%0.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		29.6%0.34%	57.7%0.03%	34.5%0.31%	38.9%0.19%	28.0%0.41%	43.5%0.06%	41.2%0.13%	29.5%0.58%	50.0%0.01%	30.6%0.40%	31.3%0.64%	27.0%0.73%	60.0%0.04%
Buffalo Bills	70.4%0.34%		62.2%0.16%	48.4%1.64%	59.2%0.97%	46.0%2.12%	61.4%0.36%	58.6%0.76%	46.1%3.64%	66.7%0.06%	47.5%1.78%	49.9%3.27%	46.2%3.37%	75.4%0.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	42.3%0.03%	37.8%0.16%		38.4%0.10%	41.2%0.08%	24.6%0.13%	37.0%0.03%	42.3%0.07%	27.2%0.28%	50.0%0.01%	33.1%0.14%	33.6%0.24%	31.3%0.23%	68.8%0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	65.5%0.31%	51.6%1.64%	61.6%0.10%		59.1%0.78%	47.0%1.81%	61.6%0.33%	57.9%0.83%	44.3%3.01%	76.2%0.08%	44.8%1.68%	51.0%3.23%	46.8%3.03%	73.9%0.18%
Denver Broncos	61.1%0.19%	40.8%0.97%	58.8%0.08%	40.9%0.78%		38.1%0.96%	48.2%0.14%	47.9%0.46%	37.3%1.62%	64.7%0.05%	34.6%0.90%	40.4%1.71%	37.7%1.75%	64.6%0.07%
Houston Oilers	72.0%0.41%	54.0%2.12%	75.4%0.13%	53.0%1.81%	61.9%0.96%		60.1%0.37%	62.9%1.00%	48.7%3.60%	75.5%0.10%	48.3%2.06%	54.6%4.23%	49.2%3.85%	78.9%0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	56.5%0.06%	38.6%0.36%	63.0%0.03%	38.4%0.33%	51.8%0.14%	39.9%0.37%		41.0%0.16%	34.0%0.67%	52.6%0.02%	34.0%0.32%	42.3%0.63%	34.2%0.61%	71.4%0.02%
Miami Dolphins	58.8%0.13%	41.4%0.76%	57.7%0.07%	42.1%0.83%	52.1%0.46%	37.1%1.00%	59.0%0.16%		36.1%1.57%	55.6%0.03%	36.4%0.84%	40.5%1.46%	36.4%1.52%	57.9%0.10%
New England Patriots	70.5%0.58%	53.9%3.64%	72.8%0.28%	55.7%3.01%	62.7%1.62%	51.3%3.60%	66.0%0.67%	63.9%1.57%		72.5%0.12%	50.3%3.43%	53.0%6.15%	51.5%6.30%	78.1%0.30%
New York Jets	50.0%0.01%	33.3%0.06%	50.0%0.01%	23.8%0.08%	35.3%0.05%	24.5%0.10%	47.4%0.02%	44.4%0.03%	27.5%0.12%		28.6%0.13%	26.0%0.18%	23.1%0.19%	46.2%0.01%
Oakland Raiders	69.4%0.40%	52.5%1.78%	66.9%0.14%	55.2%1.68%	65.4%0.90%	51.7%2.06%	66.0%0.32%	63.6%0.84%	49.7%3.43%	71.4%0.13%		54.0%3.09%	51.3%3.88%	77.0%0.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.7%0.64%	50.1%3.27%	66.4%0.24%	49.0%3.23%	59.6%1.71%	45.4%4.23%	57.7%0.63%	59.5%1.46%	47.0%6.15%	74.0%0.18%	46.0%3.09%		47.3%5.92%	71.4%0.35%
San Diego Chargers	73.0%0.73%	53.8%3.37%	68.7%0.23%	53.2%3.03%	62.3%1.75%	50.8%3.85%	65.8%0.61%	63.6%1.52%	48.5%6.30%	76.9%0.19%	48.7%3.88%	52.7%5.92%		74.3%0.30%
Seattle Seahawks	40.0%0.04%	24.6%0.18%	31.2%0.02%	26.1%0.18%	35.4%0.07%	21.1%0.21%	28.6%0.02%	42.1%0.10%	21.9%0.30%	53.8%0.01%	23.0%0.14%	28.6%0.35%	25.7%0.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		66.4%1.53%	47.6%7.10%	66.1%3.19%	81.5%0.40%	49.5%6.62%	63.1%1.51%	86.7%0.03%	85.7%0.10%	47.8%7.45%	77.8%0.33%	79.9%0.36%	81.4%0.51%	69.7%0.42%
Chicago Bears	33.6%1.53%		32.3%1.76%	52.7%0.73%	60.0%0.05%	35.6%1.84%	51.1%0.33%	73.3%0.01%	65.4%0.03%	35.4%1.84%	66.9%0.12%	69.0%0.08%	62.5%0.10%	62.1%0.10%
Dallas Cowboys	52.4%7.10%	67.7%1.76%		68.6%3.92%	83.6%0.43%	52.7%8.51%	65.4%1.96%	87.3%0.07%	80.4%0.10%	49.6%15.51%	80.0%0.60%	78.0%0.53%	80.2%0.53%	70.0%0.63%
Detroit Lions	33.9%3.19%	47.3%0.73%	31.4%3.92%		63.6%0.12%	34.5%3.86%	49.5%0.81%	79.2%0.02%	78.6%0.04%	32.6%4.30%	66.6%0.29%	62.9%0.15%	68.1%0.20%	54.1%0.21%
Green Bay Packers	18.5%0.40%	40.0%0.05%	16.4%0.43%	36.4%0.12%		20.8%0.45%	25.0%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	16.7%0.44%	45.5%0.03%	45.0%0.02%	50.0%0.02%	25.0%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	50.5%6.62%	64.4%1.84%	47.3%8.51%	65.5%3.86%	79.2%0.45%		64.5%2.07%	72.2%0.02%	82.2%0.09%	48.1%9.77%	73.8%0.43%	73.6%0.48%	78.8%0.58%	68.0%0.52%
Minnesota Vikings	36.9%1.51%	48.9%0.33%	34.6%1.96%	50.5%0.81%	75.0%0.06%	35.5%2.07%		66.7%0.01%	73.3%0.01%	33.9%1.93%	66.5%0.16%	64.2%0.08%	69.4%0.11%	50.5%0.11%
New Orleans Saints	13.3%0.03%	26.7%0.01%	12.7%0.07%	20.8%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	27.8%0.02%	33.3%0.01%			12.6%0.09%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants	14.3%0.10%	34.6%0.03%	19.6%0.10%	21.4%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	17.8%0.09%	26.7%0.01%			24.1%0.11%	25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	52.2%7.45%	64.6%1.84%	50.4%15.51%	67.4%4.30%	83.3%0.44%	51.9%9.77%	66.1%1.93%	87.4%0.09%	75.9%0.11%		80.3%0.78%	75.4%0.62%	82.3%0.61%	72.5%0.77%
San Francisco 49ers	22.2%0.33%	33.1%0.12%	20.0%0.60%	33.4%0.29%	54.5%0.03%	26.2%0.43%	33.5%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	19.7%0.78%		52.4%0.04%	41.2%0.03%	27.8%0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	20.1%0.36%	31.0%0.08%	22.0%0.53%	37.1%0.15%	55.0%0.02%	26.4%0.48%	35.8%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	24.6%0.62%	47.6%0.04%		61.5%0.03%	44.0%0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18.6%0.51%	37.5%0.10%	19.8%0.53%	31.9%0.20%	50.0%0.02%	21.2%0.58%	30.6%0.11%	80.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	17.7%0.61%	58.8%0.03%	38.5%0.03%		37.5%0.03%
Washington Redskins	30.3%0.42%	37.9%0.10%	30.0%0.63%	45.9%0.21%	75.0%0.02%	32.0%0.52%	49.5%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	27.5%0.77%	72.2%0.04%	56.0%0.03%	62.5%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	22.0%0.20%	31.6%0.04%	27.9%0.31%	44.6%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	29.2%0.21%	44.4%0.05%		50.0%<0.01%	25.7%0.30%	50.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	77.8%<0.01%	45.5%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	43.6%1.45%	61.5%0.30%	39.5%2.17%	55.8%0.58%	69.0%0.04%	42.6%1.84%	57.1%0.32%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%	42.1%2.25%	66.7%0.06%	50.0%0.05%	70.0%0.06%	67.9%0.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.2%0.08%	52.2%0.02%	30.4%0.11%	40.0%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	27.8%0.10%	26.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		33.6%0.13%	60.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	41.5%1.31%	61.2%0.26%	42.5%1.96%	60.4%0.60%	74.4%0.04%	46.4%1.60%	55.3%0.28%	33.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	41.5%2.14%	75.4%0.06%	62.0%0.05%	62.7%0.05%	60.0%0.08%
Denver Broncos	34.1%0.58%	52.4%0.14%	32.8%0.86%	58.8%0.27%	72.7%0.02%	36.0%0.71%	51.0%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	33.3%1.01%	50.0%0.03%	70.4%0.03%	71.4%0.02%	50.0%0.03%
Houston Oilers	44.2%1.86%	56.4%0.33%	45.3%2.58%	62.5%0.70%	80.0%0.04%	45.9%2.09%	58.7%0.40%	100.0%<0.01%	83.3%0.01%	45.1%2.76%	66.3%0.09%	69.2%0.08%	79.2%0.07%	63.2%0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	39.0%0.23%	58.3%0.05%	34.9%0.33%	48.9%0.09%	75.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.29%	41.2%0.05%		100.0%<0.01%	31.5%0.35%	70.0%0.01%	50.0%0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	46.7%0.01%
Miami Dolphins	33.3%0.54%	39.8%0.11%	36.9%0.84%	47.7%0.22%	71.4%0.01%	35.1%0.70%	35.0%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	31.8%0.92%	69.0%0.03%	62.5%0.02%	74.1%0.03%	60.0%0.03%
New England Patriots	46.5%2.71%	56.8%0.56%	43.5%3.98%	62.7%1.09%	70.7%0.07%	46.6%3.23%	58.2%0.60%	85.7%<0.01%	73.7%0.02%	44.6%4.34%	73.3%0.12%	73.6%0.11%	73.1%0.10%	64.2%0.18%
New York Jets	35.4%0.05%	25.0%0.01%	26.0%0.05%	32.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	28.8%0.05%	30.8%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	49.1%1.68%	63.6%0.35%	44.1%2.39%	60.1%0.66%	69.4%0.04%	46.8%1.91%	59.8%0.35%	83.3%<0.01%	86.7%0.01%	43.7%2.51%	72.2%0.08%	86.4%0.06%	79.0%0.06%	53.8%0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.4%2.48%	57.6%0.51%	40.7%3.63%	55.9%1.00%	69.6%0.08%	41.0%2.94%	52.2%0.55%	75.0%<0.01%	64.3%0.01%	40.9%3.84%	64.6%0.10%	64.4%0.10%	72.8%0.09%	60.4%0.15%
San Diego Chargers	45.5%2.74%	57.3%0.57%	43.5%3.99%	62.8%1.08%	73.5%0.07%	46.0%3.25%	55.9%0.63%	80.0%0.01%	64.3%0.01%	43.1%4.12%	73.9%0.12%	67.3%0.11%	78.9%0.11%	73.1%0.17%
Seattle Seahawks	23.6%0.07%	57.1%0.02%	22.8%0.11%	26.8%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	18.8%0.10%	26.3%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	15.0%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons															78.0%0.20%	56.4%1.45%	73.8%0.08%	58.5%1.31%	65.9%0.58%	55.8%1.86%	61.0%0.23%	66.7%0.54%	53.5%2.71%	64.6%0.05%	50.9%1.68%	58.6%2.48%	54.5%2.74%	76.4%0.07%
Chicago Bears															68.4%0.04%	38.5%0.30%	47.8%0.02%	38.8%0.26%	47.6%0.14%	43.6%0.33%	41.7%0.05%	60.2%0.11%	43.2%0.56%	75.0%0.01%	36.4%0.35%	42.4%0.51%	42.7%0.57%	42.9%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys															72.1%0.31%	60.5%2.17%	69.6%0.11%	57.5%1.96%	67.2%0.86%	54.7%2.58%	65.1%0.33%	63.1%0.84%	56.5%3.98%	74.0%0.05%	55.9%2.39%	59.3%3.63%	56.5%3.99%	77.2%0.11%
Detroit Lions															55.4%0.07%	44.2%0.58%	60.0%0.03%	39.6%0.60%	41.2%0.27%	37.5%0.70%	51.1%0.09%	52.3%0.22%	37.3%1.09%	68.0%0.03%	39.9%0.66%	44.1%1.00%	37.2%1.08%	73.2%0.04%
Green Bay Packers															0.0%<0.01%	31.0%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	25.6%0.04%	27.3%0.02%	20.0%0.04%	25.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.01%	29.3%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	30.6%0.04%	30.4%0.08%	26.5%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															70.8%0.21%	57.4%1.84%	72.2%0.10%	53.6%1.60%	64.0%0.71%	54.1%2.09%	68.4%0.29%	64.9%0.70%	53.4%3.23%	71.2%0.05%	53.2%1.91%	59.0%2.94%	54.0%3.25%	81.2%0.10%
Minnesota Vikings															55.6%0.05%	42.9%0.32%	73.3%0.01%	44.7%0.28%	49.0%0.15%	41.3%0.40%	58.8%0.05%	65.0%0.12%	41.8%0.60%	69.2%0.01%	40.2%0.35%	47.8%0.55%	44.1%0.63%	73.7%0.02%
New Orleans Saints																0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%		16.7%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%
New York Giants															50.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	26.3%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	13.3%0.01%	35.7%0.01%	35.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															74.3%0.30%	57.9%2.25%	66.4%0.13%	58.5%2.14%	66.7%1.01%	54.9%2.76%	68.5%0.35%	68.2%0.92%	55.4%4.34%	75.0%0.06%	56.3%2.51%	59.1%3.84%	56.9%4.12%	85.0%0.12%
San Francisco 49ers															50.0%0.01%	33.3%0.06%	40.0%<0.01%	24.6%0.06%	50.0%0.03%	33.7%0.09%	30.0%0.01%	31.0%0.03%	26.7%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	27.8%0.08%	35.4%0.10%	26.1%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals															66.7%<0.01%	50.0%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	38.0%0.05%	29.6%0.03%	30.8%0.08%	50.0%0.01%	37.5%0.02%	26.4%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%	13.6%0.06%	35.6%0.10%	32.7%0.11%	33.3%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															22.2%<0.01%	30.0%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	37.3%0.05%	28.6%0.02%	20.8%0.07%	40.0%<0.01%	25.9%0.03%	26.9%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	21.0%0.06%	27.2%0.09%	21.1%0.11%	20.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															54.5%0.01%	32.1%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%	40.0%0.08%	50.0%0.03%	36.8%0.11%	53.3%0.01%	40.0%0.03%	35.8%0.18%	57.1%<0.01%	46.2%0.09%	39.6%0.15%	26.9%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	63.08%	31.83%	17.92%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	58.67%	32.25%	17.50%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	54.31%	29.57%	13.02%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.00%	50.41%	23.70%	10.06%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	56.52%	28.05%	14.94%	9.03%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	100.00%	43.98%	20.22%	8.60%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	56.47%	29.90%	15.37%	7.58%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	43.48%	20.32%	10.90%	6.47%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	43.53%	21.40%	11.14%	5.44%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	29.89%	10.07%	4.37%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders
Houston Oilers		43.5%100.00%
Oakland Raiders	56.5%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Cowboys		56.5%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams	43.5%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		45.2%43.53%			43.0%56.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.8%43.53%			47.0%56.47%
Houston Oilers					49.2%43.53%
Oakland Raiders		53.0%56.47%
San Diego Chargers	57.0%56.47%		50.8%43.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		50.4%56.52%		69.5%43.48%
Dallas Cowboys	49.6%56.52%
Los Angeles Rams					46.7%43.48%
Minnesota Vikings	30.5%43.48%				29.4%56.52%
Philadelphia Eagles			53.3%43.48%	70.6%56.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills		45.7%11.43%	47.4%9.66%	47.8%12.85%	42.6%10.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.3%11.43%		48.4%11.74%		43.4%27.23%
Houston Oilers	52.6%9.66%	51.6%11.74%
Oakland Raiders	52.2%12.85%				50.8%17.05%
San Diego Chargers	57.4%10.03%	56.6%27.23%		49.2%17.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons			50.9%14.12%	68.8%8.33%	53.4%36.23%
Dallas Cowboys				63.1%8.27%	49.2%19.77%
Los Angeles Rams	49.1%14.12%			63.9%6.20%
Minnesota Vikings	31.2%8.33%	36.9%8.27%	36.1%6.20%		30.8%7.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	46.6%36.23%	50.8%19.77%		69.2%7.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Houston Oilers	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills	42.9%6.56%	37.9%3.04%	39.3%2.16%	54.4%2.06%	41.7%6.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	44.1%7.66%	37.2%3.57%	39.1%2.62%	53.7%2.40%	40.7%7.44%
Houston Oilers	50.0%3.62%	44.1%1.67%	43.0%1.19%	60.2%1.08%	48.4%3.58%
Oakland Raiders	49.9%4.96%	43.5%2.26%	45.8%1.67%	60.7%1.49%	49.2%4.98%
San Diego Chargers	45.2%9.45%	38.9%4.40%	39.2%3.27%	57.1%3.03%	42.7%9.43%
Atlanta Falcons						57.1%6.56%	55.9%7.66%	50.0%3.62%	50.1%4.96%	54.8%9.45%
Dallas Cowboys						62.1%3.04%	62.8%3.57%	55.9%1.67%	56.5%2.26%	61.1%4.40%
Los Angeles Rams						60.7%2.16%	60.9%2.62%	57.0%1.19%	54.2%1.67%	60.8%3.27%
Minnesota Vikings						45.6%2.06%	46.3%2.40%	39.8%1.08%	39.3%1.49%	42.9%3.03%
Philadelphia Eagles						58.3%6.40%	59.3%7.44%	51.6%3.58%	50.8%4.98%	57.3%9.43%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 17.92% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

63.28%

Win Prob

70.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

53.04%

Win Prob

46.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

30.12%

Win Prob

57.25%

Atlanta Falcons 17.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.48%

Win Prob

69.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

59.98%

Win Prob

53.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

29.56%

Win Prob

54.79%

San Diego Chargers 13.02% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

59.27%

Win Prob

57.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

52.15%

Win Prob

56.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.79%

Win Prob

45.21%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 10.06% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

52.72%

Win Prob

47.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

49.84%

Win Prob

43.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

33.62%

Win Prob

44.12%

Dallas Cowboys 9.03% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

65.06%

Win Prob

49.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

29.73%

Win Prob

61.08%

Buffalo Bills 8.60% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

55.22%

Win Prob

43.00%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

30.38%

Win Prob

47.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.69%

Win Prob

42.88%

Oakland Raiders 7.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.47%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

56.34%

Win Prob

50.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

32.65%

Win Prob

49.86%

Los Angeles Rams 6.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

63.62%

Win Prob

49.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

30.68%

Win Prob

60.76%

Houston Oilers 5.44% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.53%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

54.38%

Win Prob

51.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

33.25%

Win Prob

49.97%

Minnesota Vikings 4.37% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

55.55%

Win Prob

29.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

30.32%

Win Prob

36.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

29.74%

Win Prob

42.90%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1980-09-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-24	1471.88	1484.87	43.19%	56.25%	-5.80	0-1
1980-09-14	@ New England Patriots	W 37-21	1466.08	1548.27	33.82%	65.67%	+35.17	1-1
1980-09-21	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1501.25	1515.79	52.33%	47.12%	-12.15	1-2
1980-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1489.10	1502.51	43.14%	56.31%	+13.07	2-2
1980-10-05	Detroit Lions	W 43-28	1502.17	1575.10	43.96%	55.49%	+28.79	3-2
1980-10-12	New York Jets	L 7-14	1530.96	1400.48	71.62%	27.92%	-25.36	3-3
1980-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-14	1505.60	1375.88	63.33%	36.14%	+25.21	4-3
1980-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-10	1530.81	1596.63	44.97%	54.48%	+12.64	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-14	1543.45	1573.36	40.83%	58.63%	+31.41	6-3
1980-11-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-27	1574.86	1467.20	60.35%	39.12%	+12.86	7-3
1980-11-16	New Orleans Saints	W 31-13	1587.72	1322.94	84.48%	15.21%	+8.64	8-3
1980-11-23	Chicago Bears	W 28-17	1596.36	1485.50	69.28%	30.24%	+13.46	9-3
1980-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 10-6	1609.82	1397.69	80.11%	19.52%	+5.24	10-3
1980-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1615.06	1663.99	38.22%	61.25%	+14.20	11-3
1980-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-10	1629.26	1430.03	78.91%	20.71%	+13.89	12-3
1980-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1643.15	1617.80	48.67%	50.77%	-11.30	12-4
1980-09-07	@ New York Jets	W 17-14	1462.30	1489.93	41.14%	58.31%	+13.53	1-0
1980-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1475.83	1594.78	37.58%	61.89%	-8.74	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-21	1467.09	1522.69	37.32%	62.16%	-11.19	1-2
1980-09-28	New York Jets	W 35-21	1455.90	1437.06	57.08%	42.37%	+21.27	2-2
1980-10-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-17	1477.17	1537.63	36.66%	62.81%	+30.32	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-12	1507.49	1573.85	35.88%	63.60%	+19.04	4-2
1980-10-19	New England Patriots	L 21-37	1526.53	1590.65	45.21%	54.23%	-24.26	4-3
1980-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1502.27	1453.37	61.25%	38.22%	-21.70	4-4
1980-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1480.57	1486.96	44.13%	55.32%	+19.61	5-4
1980-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-28	1500.18	1549.00	47.40%	52.04%	-6.35	5-5
1980-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1493.83	1480.27	46.97%	52.47%	+7.03	6-5
1980-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 21-47	1500.86	1567.61	35.83%	63.65%	-24.52	6-6
1980-11-30	Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1476.34	1598.25	37.18%	62.29%	+16.68	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 33-34	1493.02	1423.34	55.03%	44.42%	-7.37	7-7
1980-12-14	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1485.65	1503.86	51.80%	47.64%	-21.95	7-8
1980-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-38	1463.70	1467.84	53.82%	45.63%	-22.81	7-9
1980-09-07	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1478.98	1532.89	46.67%	52.77%	+22.37	1-0
1980-09-14	New York Jets	W 20-10	1501.35	1476.40	57.94%	41.52%	+17.61	2-0
1980-09-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-26	1518.96	1451.65	54.69%	44.76%	+18.01	3-0
1980-09-28	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1536.97	1536.67	54.45%	44.99%	+24.88	4-0
1980-10-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 26-24	1561.85	1626.72	36.08%	63.40%	+12.00	5-0
1980-10-12	Baltimore Colts	L 12-17	1573.85	1507.49	63.60%	35.88%	-19.04	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1554.81	1477.94	56.05%	43.40%	-13.00	5-2
1980-10-26	New England Patriots	W 31-13	1541.81	1614.90	43.94%	55.51%	+31.55	6-2
1980-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1573.36	1543.45	58.63%	40.83%	-31.41	6-3
1980-11-09	@ New York Jets	W 31-24	1541.95	1407.87	63.91%	35.57%	+12.63	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-0	1554.58	1425.98	63.18%	36.29%	+18.22	8-3
1980-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-13	1572.80	1600.62	50.42%	49.02%	+25.45	9-3
1980-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1598.25	1476.34	62.29%	37.18%	-16.68	9-4
1980-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-7	1581.57	1591.39	53.00%	46.44%	+10.79	10-4
1980-12-14	@ New England Patriots	L 2-24	1592.36	1560.03	49.67%	49.77%	-31.23	10-5
1980-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 18-13	1561.13	1416.15	65.34%	34.15%	+10.24	11-5
1980-09-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-12	1501.89	1473.03	49.17%	50.27%	-16.15	0-1
1980-09-14	New Orleans Saints	W 22-3	1485.74	1477.28	55.61%	43.84%	+25.63	1-1
1980-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1511.37	1453.58	62.45%	37.02%	-37.40	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-38	1473.97	1591.28	29.47%	70.06%	-23.39	1-3
1980-10-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-0	1450.58	1463.78	52.52%	46.92%	+30.17	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-13	1480.75	1457.91	48.31%	51.13%	-15.86	2-4
1980-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1464.89	1557.30	41.22%	58.23%	+32.16	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1497.05	1620.18	28.78%	70.75%	-6.69	3-5
1980-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-27	1490.36	1536.30	38.62%	60.84%	-12.69	3-6
1980-11-09	Washington Redskins	W 35-21	1477.67	1438.60	59.90%	39.56%	+19.86	4-6
1980-11-16	Houston Oilers	L 6-10	1497.53	1564.29	44.84%	54.61%	-12.03	4-7
1980-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-28	1485.50	1596.36	30.24%	69.28%	-13.46	4-8
1980-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-17	1472.04	1497.19	41.49%	57.96%	+19.02	5-8
1980-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 61-7	1491.06	1443.00	61.13%	38.33%	+37.80	6-8
1980-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1528.86	1430.71	67.70%	31.80%	-15.70	6-9
1980-12-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-13	1513.16	1381.23	63.63%	35.85%	+4.81	7-9
1980-09-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-17	1485.86	1478.88	55.40%	44.04%	-16.59	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1469.27	1510.52	39.26%	60.20%	-5.27	0-2
1980-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-28	1464.00	1603.52	34.86%	64.63%	+12.23	1-2
1980-09-28	Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1476.23	1533.89	46.13%	53.31%	-10.71	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-14	1465.52	1403.40	53.95%	45.50%	-16.16	1-4
1980-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-16	1449.36	1625.88	22.93%	76.66%	+10.25	2-4
1980-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-0	1459.61	1473.78	52.38%	47.06%	+23.61	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-23	1483.22	1512.78	40.88%	58.58%	-24.52	3-5
1980-11-02	San Diego Chargers	L 14-31	1458.70	1580.17	37.24%	62.23%	-20.61	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-28	1438.09	1574.83	27.20%	72.34%	-12.11	3-7
1980-11-16	Buffalo Bills	L 0-14	1425.98	1554.58	36.29%	63.18%	-18.22	3-8
1980-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-31	1407.76	1546.06	27.03%	72.52%	-17.77	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1389.99	1479.25	32.92%	66.58%	+33.35	4-9
1980-12-07	Baltimore Colts	W 34-33	1423.34	1493.02	44.42%	55.03%	+7.37	5-9
1980-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1430.71	1528.86	31.80%	67.70%	+15.70	6-9
1980-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1446.41	1565.04	37.63%	61.84%	-8.74	6-10
1980-09-07	@ New England Patriots	L 17-34	1500.97	1525.25	41.61%	57.84%	-23.02	0-1
1980-09-15	Houston Oilers	L 7-16	1477.95	1502.21	50.93%	48.51%	-20.47	0-2
1980-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1457.48	1445.10	56.17%	43.28%	+15.36	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-27	1472.84	1483.61	43.51%	55.94%	+19.82	2-2
1980-10-05	Denver Broncos	L 16-19	1492.66	1488.91	54.94%	44.50%	-12.75	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-3	1479.91	1524.48	38.81%	60.65%	+39.80	3-3
1980-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 26-21	1519.71	1420.00	67.90%	31.61%	+9.48	4-3
1980-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-26	1529.19	1585.16	46.38%	53.07%	+7.11	5-3
1980-11-03	Chicago Bears	W 27-21	1536.30	1490.36	60.84%	38.62%	+12.70	6-3
1980-11-09	@ Baltimore Colts	W 28-27	1549.00	1500.18	52.04%	47.40%	+6.35	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1555.35	1591.33	39.99%	59.47%	-9.29	7-4
1980-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-7	1546.06	1407.76	72.52%	27.03%	+17.77	8-4
1980-11-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1563.83	1559.83	45.61%	53.84%	+12.49	9-4
1980-12-07	New York Jets	W 17-14	1576.32	1385.76	78.07%	21.54%	+5.00	10-4
1980-12-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-28	1581.32	1516.48	54.34%	45.11%	-16.28	10-5
1980-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1565.04	1446.41	61.84%	37.63%	+8.75	11-5
1980-09-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-3	1548.83	1508.91	50.76%	48.68%	+24.42	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-41	1573.25	1497.27	55.92%	43.53%	-34.33	1-1
1980-09-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-17	1538.92	1501.30	59.70%	39.76%	+17.69	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1556.61	1425.51	63.52%	35.96%	+22.12	3-1
1980-10-05	New York Giants	W 24-3	1578.73	1422.23	74.55%	25.02%	+15.38	4-1
1980-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 59-14	1594.11	1465.31	71.42%	28.11%	+25.31	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1619.42	1603.39	47.33%	52.11%	-16.79	5-2
1980-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 42-31	1602.63	1600.04	54.78%	44.67%	+19.87	6-2
1980-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1622.50	1475.07	65.66%	33.83%	+7.86	7-2
1980-11-09	@ New York Giants	L 35-38	1630.36	1342.65	81.03%	18.61%	-18.76	7-3
1980-11-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-21	1611.60	1454.35	74.63%	24.94%	+10.58	8-3
1980-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1622.18	1402.75	80.77%	18.87%	+5.06	9-3
1980-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 51-7	1627.24	1435.37	78.20%	21.41%	+19.05	10-3
1980-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	W 19-13	1646.29	1598.45	51.90%	47.54%	+15.61	11-3
1980-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1661.90	1580.60	56.67%	42.78%	-37.19	11-4
1980-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-27	1624.71	1660.38	49.29%	50.15%	+19.01	12-4
1980-09-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-27	1525.86	1515.37	46.54%	52.91%	-28.59	0-1
1980-09-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-20	1497.27	1573.25	43.53%	55.92%	+34.33	1-1
1980-09-21	San Diego Chargers	L 13-30	1531.60	1584.38	46.83%	52.61%	-25.89	1-2
1980-09-29	@ New England Patriots	L 14-23	1505.71	1529.17	41.72%	57.73%	-16.80	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-16	1488.91	1492.66	44.50%	54.94%	+12.75	2-3
1980-10-13	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1501.66	1443.85	62.45%	37.02%	+8.61	3-3
1980-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-23	1510.27	1454.43	62.19%	37.28%	-20.40	3-4
1980-10-26	@ New York Giants	W 14-9	1489.87	1373.91	61.48%	37.99%	+11.40	4-4
1980-11-02	Houston Oilers	L 16-20	1501.27	1537.30	49.24%	50.20%	-13.20	4-5
1980-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1488.07	1600.78	30.02%	69.50%	+24.61	5-5
1980-11-16	New York Jets	W 31-24	1512.68	1395.24	70.07%	29.45%	+10.45	6-5
1980-11-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 36-20	1523.13	1454.46	63.90%	35.58%	+19.10	7-5
1980-12-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-9	1542.23	1585.65	38.97%	60.50%	-12.81	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-31	1529.42	1445.90	56.99%	42.47%	-31.47	7-7
1980-12-14	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1497.95	1582.84	42.27%	57.18%	-9.82	7-8
1980-12-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-17	1488.13	1386.33	59.54%	39.92%	+15.15	8-8
1980-09-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 41-20	1465.75	1522.42	37.17%	62.30%	+38.23	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	W 29-7	1503.98	1489.18	47.15%	52.29%	+32.86	2-0
1980-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1536.84	1455.18	65.60%	33.89%	+16.40	3-0
1980-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1553.24	1490.97	63.05%	36.42%	+21.86	4-0
1980-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-43	1575.10	1502.17	55.49%	43.96%	-28.79	4-1
1980-10-12	New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1546.31	1386.87	74.86%	24.70%	+10.99	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-24	1557.30	1464.89	58.23%	41.22%	-32.16	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1525.14	1474.83	52.26%	47.18%	-12.13	5-3
1980-11-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1513.01	1415.16	67.67%	31.84%	+8.55	6-3
1980-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-34	1521.56	1467.16	52.84%	46.60%	-41.29	6-4
1980-11-16	Baltimore Colts	L 9-10	1480.27	1493.83	52.47%	46.97%	-7.03	6-5
1980-11-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-10	1473.24	1426.82	51.70%	47.74%	+23.95	7-5
1980-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1497.19	1472.04	57.96%	41.49%	-19.02	7-6
1980-12-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1478.17	1448.22	49.33%	50.11%	-6.61	7-7
1980-12-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1471.56	1398.14	64.53%	34.96%	+16.91	8-7
1980-12-21	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1488.47	1386.28	68.21%	31.30%	+19.25	9-7
1980-09-07	Chicago Bears	W 12-6	1473.03	1501.89	50.27%	49.17%	+16.15	1-0
1980-09-14	Detroit Lions	L 7-29	1489.18	1503.98	52.29%	47.15%	-32.87	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-51	1456.31	1478.37	41.92%	57.53%	-30.80	1-2
1980-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1425.51	1556.61	35.96%	63.52%	-22.11	1-3
1980-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 14-9	1403.40	1465.52	45.50%	53.95%	+16.16	2-3
1980-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	T 14-14	1419.56	1433.60	43.05%	56.40%	+0.44	2-3
1980-10-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-26	1420.00	1519.71	31.61%	67.90%	-9.48	2-4
1980-10-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-3	1410.52	1450.17	48.72%	50.72%	+24.51	3-4
1980-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-22	1435.03	1578.05	26.50%	73.05%	-5.03	3-5
1980-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-16	1430.00	1406.62	57.72%	41.74%	+14.82	4-5
1980-11-16	@ New York Giants	L 21-27	1444.82	1361.42	56.97%	42.48%	-18.69	4-6
1980-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 25-13	1426.13	1521.99	32.09%	67.42%	+31.26	5-6
1980-11-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1457.39	1402.86	62.01%	37.46%	-14.39	5-7
1980-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-61	1443.00	1491.06	38.33%	61.13%	-37.79	5-8
1980-12-14	Houston Oilers	L 3-22	1405.21	1564.25	32.36%	67.15%	-18.93	5-9
1980-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-24	1386.28	1488.47	31.30%	68.21%	-19.25	5-10
1980-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-31	1520.99	1576.01	37.39%	62.08%	-18.78	0-1
1980-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-7	1502.21	1477.95	48.51%	50.93%	+20.48	1-1
1980-09-21	Baltimore Colts	W 21-16	1522.69	1467.09	62.16%	37.32%	+11.20	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-10	1533.89	1476.23	53.31%	46.13%	+10.71	3-1
1980-10-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-26	1544.60	1488.13	62.27%	37.20%	-36.34	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-21	1508.26	1447.22	53.79%	45.65%	-7.21	3-3
1980-10-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-14	1501.05	1433.16	63.80%	35.68%	+11.73	4-3
1980-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-3	1512.78	1483.22	58.58%	40.88%	+24.52	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-16	1537.30	1501.27	50.20%	49.24%	+13.20	6-3
1980-11-10	New England Patriots	W 38-34	1550.50	1595.08	48.01%	51.43%	+13.79	7-3
1980-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-6	1564.29	1497.53	54.61%	44.84%	+12.02	8-3
1980-11-23	@ New York Jets	L 28-31	1576.31	1384.79	71.11%	28.42%	-16.48	8-4
1980-11-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1559.83	1563.83	53.84%	45.61%	-12.49	8-5
1980-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 6-0	1547.34	1592.48	47.93%	51.51%	+16.91	9-5
1980-12-14	@ Green Bay Packers	W 22-3	1564.25	1405.21	67.15%	32.36%	+18.93	10-5
1980-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1583.18	1532.76	61.45%	38.01%	+10.20	11-5
1980-09-07	Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1475.48	1517.26	48.41%	51.03%	-23.40	0-1
1980-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1452.08	1468.08	52.12%	47.32%	-6.98	0-2
1980-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1445.10	1457.48	43.28%	56.17%	-15.36	0-3
1980-09-28	San Diego Chargers	L 7-24	1429.74	1610.27	29.72%	69.80%	-16.45	0-4
1980-10-05	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1413.29	1511.79	31.76%	67.75%	+33.93	1-4
1980-10-12	Houston Oilers	W 21-20	1447.22	1508.26	45.65%	53.79%	+7.21	2-4
1980-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-17	1454.43	1510.27	37.28%	62.19%	+20.40	3-4
1980-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1474.83	1525.14	47.18%	52.26%	+12.13	4-4
1980-11-02	Baltimore Colts	L 24-31	1486.96	1480.57	55.32%	44.13%	-19.61	4-5
1980-11-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-30	1467.35	1468.75	44.84%	54.61%	+7.32	5-5
1980-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-20	1474.67	1576.17	31.38%	68.12%	-15.19	5-6
1980-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-13	1459.48	1443.77	47.28%	52.16%	+19.77	6-6
1980-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-20	1479.25	1389.99	66.58%	32.92%	-33.35	6-7
1980-12-07	Denver Broncos	W 31-14	1445.90	1529.42	42.47%	56.99%	+31.48	7-7
1980-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-21	1477.38	1575.56	31.80%	67.71%	-9.54	7-8
1980-12-21	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-28	1467.84	1463.70	45.63%	53.82%	+22.80	8-8
1980-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-41	1522.42	1465.75	62.30%	37.17%	-38.23	0-1
1980-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-10	1484.19	1495.47	43.44%	56.01%	-5.82	0-2
1980-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 51-21	1478.37	1456.31	57.53%	41.92%	+30.80	1-2
1980-09-28	@ New York Giants	W 28-7	1509.17	1450.49	53.46%	45.99%	+28.26	2-2
1980-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 48-26	1537.43	1489.44	61.12%	38.34%	+24.13	3-2
1980-10-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-13	1561.56	1504.63	53.21%	46.24%	+17.54	4-2
1980-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1579.10	1440.00	64.57%	34.91%	+17.53	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1596.63	1530.81	54.48%	44.97%	-12.64	5-3
1980-11-02	New Orleans Saints	W 45-31	1583.99	1339.54	82.89%	16.77%	+8.41	6-3
1980-11-09	Miami Dolphins	L 14-35	1592.40	1466.74	71.05%	28.48%	-43.57	6-4
1980-11-16	@ New England Patriots	W 17-14	1548.83	1581.29	40.47%	58.98%	+13.68	7-4
1980-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1562.51	1314.30	77.31%	22.29%	+13.37	8-4
1980-11-30	New York Jets	W 38-13	1575.88	1401.27	76.46%	23.12%	+15.51	9-4
1980-12-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-10	1591.39	1581.57	46.44%	53.00%	-10.79	9-5
1980-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-14	1580.60	1661.90	42.78%	56.67%	+37.20	10-5
1980-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1617.80	1643.15	50.77%	48.67%	+11.30	11-5
1980-09-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-17	1532.89	1478.98	52.77%	46.67%	-22.37	0-1
1980-09-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-16	1510.52	1469.27	60.20%	39.26%	+5.27	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1515.79	1501.25	47.12%	52.33%	+12.15	2-1
1980-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 21-16	1527.94	1433.64	67.22%	32.28%	+9.69	3-1
1980-10-05	Baltimore Colts	L 17-30	1537.63	1477.17	62.81%	36.66%	-30.33	3-2
1980-10-12	@ New England Patriots	L 0-34	1507.30	1561.28	37.53%	61.94%	-29.36	3-3
1980-10-19	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1477.94	1554.81	43.40%	56.05%	+13.00	4-3
1980-10-27	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1490.94	1406.34	57.14%	42.31%	-13.26	4-4
1980-11-02	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-16	1477.68	1563.88	33.31%	66.19%	-10.94	4-5
1980-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 35-14	1466.74	1592.40	28.48%	71.05%	+43.57	5-5
1980-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1510.31	1391.80	70.20%	29.32%	+7.87	6-5
1980-11-20	San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1518.18	1591.35	43.92%	55.52%	-10.21	6-6
1980-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1507.97	1575.17	35.77%	63.71%	-17.30	6-7
1980-12-08	New England Patriots	W 16-13	1490.67	1573.22	42.60%	56.85%	+13.19	7-7
1980-12-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1503.86	1485.65	47.64%	51.80%	+21.95	8-7
1980-12-20	New York Jets	L 17-24	1525.81	1371.78	74.28%	25.28%	-26.29	8-8
1980-09-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1484.87	1471.88	56.25%	43.19%	+5.80	1-0
1980-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-42	1490.67	1543.96	46.76%	52.68%	-37.09	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-14	1453.58	1511.37	37.02%	62.45%	+37.39	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1490.97	1553.24	36.42%	63.05%	-21.86	2-2
1980-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1469.11	1614.68	34.07%	65.42%	-11.20	2-3
1980-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1457.91	1480.75	51.13%	48.31%	+15.87	3-3
1980-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-14	1473.78	1459.61	47.06%	52.38%	-23.61	3-4
1980-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-16	1450.17	1410.52	50.72%	48.72%	-24.52	3-5
1980-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 39-14	1425.65	1480.11	37.47%	62.00%	+41.51	4-5
1980-11-09	Detroit Lions	W 34-0	1467.16	1521.56	46.60%	52.84%	+41.29	5-5
1980-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-30	1508.45	1440.35	63.83%	35.65%	+13.54	6-5
1980-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 13-25	1521.99	1426.13	67.42%	32.09%	-31.26	6-6
1980-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1490.73	1300.93	70.91%	28.62%	+6.65	7-6
1980-12-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-10	1497.38	1417.25	56.51%	42.94%	+19.10	8-6
1980-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-23	1516.48	1581.32	45.11%	54.34%	+16.28	9-6
1980-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-20	1532.76	1583.18	38.01%	61.45%	-10.20	9-7
1980-09-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-17	1525.25	1500.97	57.84%	41.61%	+23.02	1-0
1980-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-37	1548.27	1466.08	65.67%	33.82%	-35.17	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-31	1513.10	1475.07	50.49%	48.95%	+16.07	2-1
1980-09-29	Denver Broncos	W 23-14	1529.17	1505.71	57.73%	41.72%	+16.80	3-1
1980-10-05	@ New York Jets	W 21-11	1545.97	1415.79	63.39%	36.08%	+15.31	4-1
1980-10-12	Miami Dolphins	W 34-0	1561.28	1507.30	61.94%	37.53%	+29.37	5-1
1980-10-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-21	1590.65	1526.53	54.23%	45.21%	+24.25	6-1
1980-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1614.90	1541.81	55.51%	43.94%	-31.55	6-2
1980-11-02	New York Jets	W 34-21	1583.35	1419.60	75.33%	24.25%	+11.73	7-2
1980-11-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 34-38	1595.08	1550.50	51.43%	48.01%	-13.79	7-3
1980-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-17	1581.29	1548.83	58.98%	40.47%	-13.68	7-4
1980-11-23	Baltimore Colts	W 47-21	1567.61	1500.86	63.65%	35.83%	+24.51	8-4
1980-11-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-21	1592.12	1404.60	70.64%	28.89%	-18.90	8-5
1980-12-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1573.22	1490.67	56.85%	42.60%	-13.19	8-6
1980-12-14	Buffalo Bills	W 24-2	1560.03	1592.36	49.77%	49.67%	+31.23	9-6
1980-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-27	1591.26	1296.73	81.62%	18.03%	+8.01	10-6
1980-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1491.02	1456.74	59.24%	40.22%	-13.74	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-22	1477.28	1485.74	43.84%	55.61%	-25.63	0-2
1980-09-21	Buffalo Bills	L 26-35	1451.65	1518.96	44.76%	54.69%	-18.01	0-3
1980-09-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-21	1433.64	1527.94	32.28%	67.22%	-9.68	0-4
1980-10-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-40	1423.96	1467.55	48.15%	51.29%	-37.09	0-5
1980-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1386.87	1546.31	24.70%	74.86%	-10.99	0-6
1980-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-41	1375.88	1505.60	36.14%	63.33%	-25.20	0-7
1980-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-22	1350.68	1468.97	29.35%	70.18%	-11.14	0-8
1980-11-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-45	1339.54	1583.99	16.77%	82.89%	-8.41	0-9
1980-11-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-34	1331.13	1638.94	16.93%	82.73%	-8.19	0-10
1980-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-31	1322.94	1587.72	15.21%	84.48%	-8.64	0-11
1980-11-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-27	1314.30	1562.51	22.29%	77.31%	-13.37	0-12
1980-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1300.93	1490.73	28.62%	70.91%	-6.66	0-13
1980-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 35-38	1294.27	1423.51	28.06%	71.47%	-6.52	0-14
1980-12-14	@ New York Jets	W 21-20	1287.75	1380.76	32.44%	67.06%	+8.98	1-14
1980-12-21	New England Patriots	L 27-38	1296.73	1591.26	18.03%	81.62%	-8.02	1-15
1980-09-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-35	1465.35	1484.21	42.37%	57.08%	+18.73	1-0
1980-09-14	Washington Redskins	L 21-23	1484.08	1484.49	54.35%	45.10%	-10.30	1-1
1980-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-35	1473.78	1581.06	30.68%	68.84%	-23.29	1-2
1980-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-28	1450.49	1509.17	45.99%	53.46%	-28.26	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1422.23	1578.73	25.02%	74.55%	-15.38	1-4
1980-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-31	1406.85	1587.98	29.65%	69.88%	-15.41	1-5
1980-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-44	1391.44	1582.51	21.49%	78.12%	-17.53	1-6
1980-10-26	Denver Broncos	L 9-14	1373.91	1489.87	37.99%	61.48%	-11.40	1-7
1980-11-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-30	1362.51	1428.74	35.90%	63.58%	-19.86	1-8
1980-11-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-35	1342.65	1630.36	18.61%	81.03%	+18.77	2-8
1980-11-16	Green Bay Packers	W 27-21	1361.42	1444.82	42.48%	56.97%	+18.69	3-8
1980-11-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-12	1380.11	1383.93	44.49%	54.95%	-20.67	3-9
1980-11-30	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-23	1359.44	1424.00	45.15%	54.30%	-24.22	3-10
1980-12-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1335.22	1416.32	33.96%	65.53%	+21.49	4-10
1980-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1356.71	1439.91	33.69%	65.80%	-7.83	4-11
1980-12-21	Oakland Raiders	L 17-33	1348.88	1592.66	22.73%	76.86%	-12.20	4-12
1980-09-07	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1489.93	1462.30	58.31%	41.14%	-13.53	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-20	1476.40	1501.35	41.52%	57.94%	-17.62	0-2
1980-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-37	1458.78	1480.78	51.26%	48.19%	-21.72	0-3
1980-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-35	1437.06	1455.90	42.37%	57.08%	-21.27	0-4
1980-10-05	New England Patriots	L 11-21	1415.79	1545.97	36.08%	63.39%	-15.31	0-5
1980-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1400.48	1530.96	27.92%	71.62%	+25.36	1-5
1980-10-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1425.84	1484.69	45.96%	53.48%	-19.50	1-6
1980-10-27	Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1406.34	1490.94	42.31%	57.14%	+13.26	2-6
1980-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 21-34	1419.60	1583.35	24.25%	75.33%	-11.73	2-7
1980-11-09	Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1407.87	1541.95	35.57%	63.91%	-12.63	2-8
1980-11-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1395.24	1512.68	29.45%	70.07%	-10.45	2-9
1980-11-23	Houston Oilers	W 31-28	1384.79	1576.31	28.42%	71.11%	+16.48	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-38	1401.27	1575.88	23.12%	76.46%	-15.51	3-10
1980-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-17	1385.76	1576.32	21.54%	78.07%	-5.00	3-11
1980-12-14	New Orleans Saints	L 20-21	1380.76	1287.75	67.06%	32.44%	-8.98	3-12
1980-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-17	1371.78	1525.81	25.28%	74.28%	+26.29	4-12
1980-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-14	1517.26	1475.48	51.03%	48.41%	+23.40	1-0
1980-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-30	1540.66	1570.98	40.77%	58.69%	-13.40	1-1
1980-09-21	Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1527.26	1494.79	58.99%	40.47%	+9.41	2-1
1980-09-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-24	1536.67	1536.97	44.99%	54.45%	-24.88	2-2
1980-10-05	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1511.79	1413.29	67.75%	31.76%	-33.93	2-3
1980-10-12	San Diego Chargers	W 38-24	1477.86	1614.71	35.20%	64.28%	+32.20	3-3
1980-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-34	1510.06	1615.62	30.88%	68.63%	+30.46	4-3
1980-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-14	1540.52	1504.18	59.52%	39.94%	+23.36	5-3
1980-11-02	Miami Dolphins	W 16-10	1563.88	1477.68	66.19%	33.31%	+10.95	6-3
1980-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1574.83	1438.09	72.34%	27.20%	+12.10	7-3
1980-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1586.93	1461.43	62.77%	36.70%	+6.97	8-3
1980-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1593.90	1663.11	35.51%	63.98%	-8.25	8-4
1980-12-01	Denver Broncos	W 9-3	1585.65	1542.23	60.50%	38.97%	+12.80	9-4
1980-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-19	1598.45	1646.29	47.54%	51.90%	-15.61	9-5
1980-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1582.84	1497.95	57.18%	42.27%	+9.82	10-5
1980-12-21	@ New York Giants	W 33-17	1592.66	1348.88	76.86%	22.73%	+12.20	11-5
1980-09-07	Denver Broncos	W 27-6	1515.37	1525.86	52.91%	46.54%	+28.59	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-7	1543.96	1490.67	52.68%	46.76%	+37.10	2-0
1980-09-22	New York Giants	W 35-3	1581.06	1473.78	68.84%	30.68%	+23.28	3-0
1980-09-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-24	1604.34	1438.78	67.96%	31.54%	-28.76	3-1
1980-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1575.58	1456.25	70.30%	29.23%	+12.40	4-1
1980-10-12	@ New York Giants	W 31-16	1587.98	1406.85	69.88%	29.65%	+15.41	5-1
1980-10-19	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1603.39	1619.42	52.11%	47.33%	+16.79	6-1
1980-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1620.18	1497.05	70.75%	28.78%	+6.69	7-1
1980-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1626.87	1480.82	65.48%	34.01%	+12.07	8-1
1980-11-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-21	1638.94	1331.13	82.73%	16.93%	+8.18	9-1
1980-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1647.12	1418.74	75.25%	24.32%	+15.99	10-1
1980-11-23	Oakland Raiders	W 10-7	1663.11	1593.90	63.98%	35.51%	+8.25	11-1
1980-11-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-22	1671.36	1601.56	55.04%	44.40%	-7.37	11-2
1980-12-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1663.99	1615.06	61.25%	38.22%	-14.21	11-3
1980-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-3	1649.78	1454.83	78.50%	21.11%	+10.60	12-3
1980-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-35	1660.38	1624.71	50.15%	49.29%	-19.02	12-4
1980-09-07	Houston Oilers	W 31-17	1576.01	1520.99	62.08%	37.39%	+18.77	1-0
1980-09-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1594.78	1475.83	61.89%	37.58%	+8.74	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-30	1603.52	1464.00	64.63%	34.86%	-12.24	2-1
1980-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 38-3	1591.28	1473.97	70.06%	29.47%	+23.40	3-1
1980-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-17	1614.68	1469.11	65.42%	34.07%	+11.20	4-1
1980-10-12	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-17	1625.88	1449.36	76.66%	22.93%	-10.26	4-2
1980-10-20	Oakland Raiders	L 34-45	1615.62	1510.06	68.63%	30.88%	-30.46	4-3
1980-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 26-27	1585.16	1529.19	53.07%	46.38%	-7.11	4-4
1980-11-02	Green Bay Packers	W 22-20	1578.05	1435.03	73.05%	26.50%	+5.02	5-4
1980-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1583.07	1448.60	63.96%	35.52%	+8.26	6-4
1980-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1591.33	1555.35	59.47%	39.99%	+9.29	7-4
1980-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-28	1600.62	1572.80	49.02%	50.42%	-25.45	7-5
1980-11-30	Miami Dolphins	W 23-10	1575.17	1507.97	63.71%	35.77%	+17.31	8-5
1980-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-6	1592.48	1547.34	51.51%	47.93%	-16.92	8-6
1980-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-16	1575.56	1477.38	67.71%	31.80%	+9.55	9-6
1980-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-26	1585.11	1569.98	47.20%	52.24%	-18.99	9-7
1980-09-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-13	1541.42	1497.65	51.32%	48.12%	+29.56	1-0
1980-09-14	Oakland Raiders	W 30-24	1570.98	1540.66	58.69%	40.77%	+13.40	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-13	1584.38	1531.60	52.61%	46.83%	+25.89	3-0
1980-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-7	1610.27	1429.74	69.80%	29.72%	+16.45	4-0
1980-10-05	Buffalo Bills	L 24-26	1626.72	1561.85	63.40%	36.08%	-12.01	4-1
1980-10-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-38	1614.71	1477.86	64.28%	35.20%	-32.20	4-2
1980-10-19	New York Giants	W 44-7	1582.51	1391.44	78.12%	21.49%	+17.53	5-2
1980-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-42	1600.04	1602.63	44.67%	54.78%	-19.87	5-3
1980-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-14	1580.17	1458.70	62.23%	37.24%	+20.61	6-3
1980-11-09	Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1600.78	1488.07	69.50%	30.02%	-24.61	6-4
1980-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-7	1576.17	1474.67	68.12%	31.38%	+15.18	7-4
1980-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1591.35	1518.18	55.52%	43.92%	+10.21	8-4
1980-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1601.56	1671.36	44.40%	55.04%	+7.37	9-4
1980-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-40	1608.93	1392.46	73.96%	25.60%	-47.45	9-5
1980-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-14	1561.48	1394.83	75.63%	23.94%	+8.50	10-5
1980-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-17	1569.98	1585.11	52.24%	47.20%	+18.98	11-5
1980-09-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-23	1456.74	1491.02	40.22%	59.24%	+13.74	1-0
1980-09-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-21	1470.48	1465.48	55.12%	44.33%	+10.30	2-0
1980-09-21	@ New York Jets	W 37-27	1480.78	1458.78	48.19%	51.26%	+21.73	3-0
1980-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1502.51	1489.10	56.31%	43.14%	-13.07	3-1
1980-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 26-48	1489.44	1537.43	38.34%	61.12%	-24.13	3-2
1980-10-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-59	1465.31	1594.11	28.11%	71.42%	-25.31	3-3
1980-10-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1440.00	1579.10	34.91%	64.57%	-17.53	3-4
1980-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1422.47	1421.43	54.56%	44.89%	-7.31	3-5
1980-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1415.16	1513.01	31.84%	67.67%	-8.54	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1406.62	1430.00	41.74%	57.72%	-14.82	3-7
1980-11-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1391.80	1510.31	29.32%	70.20%	-7.87	3-8
1980-11-23	New York Giants	W 12-0	1383.93	1380.11	54.95%	44.49%	+20.67	4-8
1980-11-30	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1404.60	1592.12	28.89%	70.64%	+18.91	5-8
1980-12-07	New Orleans Saints	W 38-35	1423.51	1294.27	71.47%	28.06%	+6.52	6-8
1980-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-35	1430.03	1629.26	20.71%	78.91%	-13.88	6-9
1980-12-21	Buffalo Bills	L 13-18	1416.15	1561.13	34.15%	65.34%	-10.25	6-10
1980-09-07	San Diego Chargers	L 13-34	1497.65	1541.42	48.12%	51.32%	-29.57	0-1
1980-09-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1468.08	1452.08	47.32%	52.12%	+6.99	1-1
1980-09-21	New England Patriots	L 31-37	1475.07	1513.10	48.95%	50.49%	-16.08	1-2
1980-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-0	1458.99	1485.39	41.32%	58.14%	+29.14	2-2
1980-10-05	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-7	1488.13	1544.60	37.20%	62.27%	+36.35	3-2
1980-10-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-27	1524.48	1479.91	60.65%	38.81%	-39.79	3-3
1980-10-19	@ New York Jets	W 27-17	1484.69	1425.84	53.48%	45.96%	+19.49	4-3
1980-10-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-33	1504.18	1540.52	39.94%	59.52%	-23.36	4-4
1980-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-27	1480.82	1626.87	34.01%	65.48%	-12.07	4-5
1980-11-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-31	1468.75	1467.35	54.61%	44.84%	-7.32	4-6
1980-11-17	Oakland Raiders	L 17-19	1461.43	1586.93	36.70%	62.77%	-6.97	4-7
1980-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-36	1454.46	1523.13	35.58%	63.90%	-19.09	4-8
1980-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-51	1435.37	1627.24	21.41%	78.20%	-19.05	4-9
1980-12-07	New York Giants	L 21-27	1416.32	1335.22	65.53%	33.96%	-21.49	4-10
1980-12-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1394.83	1561.48	23.94%	75.63%	-8.50	4-11
1980-12-21	Denver Broncos	L 17-25	1386.33	1488.13	39.92%	59.54%	-15.15	4-12
1980-09-07	New York Giants	L 35-41	1484.21	1465.35	57.08%	42.37%	-18.73	0-1
1980-09-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1465.48	1470.48	44.33%	55.12%	-10.30	0-2
1980-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-20	1455.18	1536.84	33.89%	65.60%	-16.40	0-3
1980-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1438.78	1604.34	31.54%	67.96%	+28.77	1-3
1980-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-7	1467.55	1423.96	51.29%	48.15%	+37.08	2-3
1980-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1504.63	1561.56	46.24%	53.21%	-17.53	2-4
1980-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-23	1487.10	1435.24	52.48%	46.96%	-33.73	2-5
1980-10-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-10	1453.37	1502.27	38.22%	61.25%	+21.70	3-5
1980-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1475.07	1622.50	33.83%	65.66%	-7.87	3-6
1980-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-33	1467.20	1574.86	39.12%	60.35%	-12.85	3-7
1980-11-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1454.35	1611.60	24.94%	74.63%	-10.58	3-8
1980-11-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-21	1443.77	1459.48	52.16%	47.28%	-19.77	3-9
1980-11-30	@ New York Giants	W 23-7	1424.00	1359.44	54.30%	45.15%	+24.22	4-9
1980-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1448.22	1478.17	50.11%	49.33%	+6.61	5-9
1980-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1454.83	1649.78	21.11%	78.50%	-10.60	5-10
1980-12-21	Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1444.23	1447.74	53.91%	45.54%	-35.38	5-11
1980-09-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-12	1478.88	1485.86	44.04%	55.40%	+16.59	1-0
1980-09-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-9	1495.47	1484.19	56.01%	43.44%	+5.83	2-0
1980-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-28	1501.30	1538.92	39.76%	59.70%	-17.69	2-1
1980-09-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-34	1483.61	1472.84	55.94%	43.51%	-19.83	2-2
1980-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-23	1463.78	1450.58	46.92%	52.52%	-30.18	2-3
1980-10-12	Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1433.60	1419.56	56.40%	43.05%	-0.44	2-3
1980-10-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1433.16	1501.05	35.68%	63.80%	-11.73	2-4
1980-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-23	1421.43	1422.47	44.89%	54.56%	+7.31	3-4
1980-11-02	New York Giants	W 30-13	1428.74	1362.51	63.58%	35.90%	+19.86	4-4
1980-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1448.60	1583.07	35.52%	63.96%	-8.25	4-5
1980-11-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 30-38	1440.35	1508.45	35.65%	63.83%	-13.53	4-6
1980-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 10-24	1426.82	1473.24	47.74%	51.70%	-23.96	4-7
1980-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1402.86	1457.39	37.46%	62.01%	+14.39	5-7
1980-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-21	1417.25	1497.38	42.94%	56.51%	-19.11	5-8
1980-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-27	1398.14	1471.56	34.96%	64.53%	-16.91	5-9
1980-12-20	Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1381.23	1513.16	35.85%	63.63%	-4.81	5-10
1980-09-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-17	1508.91	1548.83	48.68%	50.76%	-24.42	0-1
1980-09-14	@ New York Giants	W 23-21	1484.49	1484.08	45.10%	54.35%	+10.30	1-1
1980-09-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1494.79	1527.26	40.47%	58.99%	-9.40	1-2
1980-09-28	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-14	1485.39	1458.99	58.14%	41.32%	-29.14	1-3
1980-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1456.25	1575.58	29.23%	70.30%	-12.40	1-4
1980-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1443.85	1501.66	37.02%	62.45%	-8.61	1-5
1980-10-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-0	1435.24	1487.10	46.96%	52.48%	+33.73	2-5
1980-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 22-14	1468.97	1350.68	70.18%	29.35%	+11.14	3-5
1980-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-39	1480.11	1425.65	62.00%	37.47%	-41.51	3-6
1980-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-35	1438.60	1477.67	39.56%	59.90%	-19.86	3-7
1980-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-24	1418.74	1647.12	24.32%	75.25%	-15.99	3-8
1980-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-14	1402.75	1622.18	18.87%	80.77%	-5.06	3-9
1980-11-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-10	1397.69	1609.82	19.52%	80.11%	-5.23	3-10
1980-12-07	San Diego Chargers	W 40-17	1392.46	1608.93	25.60%	73.96%	+47.45	4-10
1980-12-13	New York Giants	W 16-13	1439.91	1356.71	65.80%	33.69%	+7.83	5-10
1980-12-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-7	1447.74	1444.23	45.54%	53.91%	+35.39	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1981-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1631.85	1670.13	49.19%	50.81%	-11.36	0-1
1981-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1571.37	1588.96	42.82%	57.18%	-13.98	0-1
1981-01-04	Oakland Raiders	L 12-14	1573.79	1630.90	46.49%	53.51%	-8.76	0-1
1980-12-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-13	1643.72	1629.10	56.76%	43.24%	+26.41	1-0
1981-01-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1670.13	1631.85	50.81%	49.19%	+11.36	2-0
1981-01-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1681.49	1656.58	48.88%	51.12%	-23.49	2-1
1980-12-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-27	1593.38	1604.86	43.68%	56.32%	-26.04	0-1
1980-12-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-34	1629.10	1643.72	43.24%	56.76%	-26.41	0-1
1981-01-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-31	1522.56	1641.36	29.48%	70.52%	-15.22	0-1
1980-12-28	Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1604.86	1593.38	56.32%	43.68%	+26.04	1-0
1981-01-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-12	1630.90	1573.79	53.51%	46.49%	+8.76	2-0
1981-01-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-27	1639.66	1602.94	50.58%	49.42%	+17.43	3-0
1981-01-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1657.09	1680.08	46.70%	53.30%	+29.30	4-0
1981-01-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-16	1641.36	1522.56	70.52%	29.48%	+15.22	1-0
1981-01-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1656.58	1681.49	51.12%	48.88%	+23.50	2-0
1981-01-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-27	1680.08	1657.09	53.30%	46.70%	-29.30	2-1
1981-01-03	Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1588.96	1571.37	57.18%	42.82%	+13.98	1-0
1981-01-11	Oakland Raiders	L 27-34	1602.94	1639.66	49.42%	50.58%	-17.43	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1980-11-09	18.61%	@ New York Giants	1342.65	38	Dallas Cowboys	1630.36	35
2	1980-10-12	22.93%	Cincinnati Bengals	1449.36	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1625.88	16
3	1980-12-20	25.28%	New York Jets	1371.78	24	@ Miami Dolphins	1525.81	17
4	1980-12-07	25.60%	@ Washington Redskins	1392.46	40	San Diego Chargers	1608.93	17
5	1980-10-12	27.92%	New York Jets	1400.48	14	@ Atlanta Falcons	1530.96	7
6	1980-11-23	28.42%	@ New York Jets	1384.79	31	Houston Oilers	1576.31	28
7	1980-11-09	28.48%	Miami Dolphins	1466.74	35	@ Los Angeles Rams	1592.40	14
8	1980-11-30	28.89%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1404.60	21	New England Patriots	1592.12	17
9	1980-11-09	30.02%	Denver Broncos	1488.07	20	@ San Diego Chargers	1600.78	13
10	1980-10-20	30.88%	Oakland Raiders	1510.06	45	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1615.62	34
11	1980-09-28	31.54%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1438.78	24	Philadelphia Eagles	1604.34	14
12	1980-10-05	31.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	1413.29	31	@ Oakland Raiders	1511.79	17
13	1980-12-14	31.80%	Cincinnati Bengals	1430.71	17	@ Chicago Bears	1528.86	14
14	1980-11-23	32.09%	Green Bay Packers	1426.13	25	@ Minnesota Vikings	1521.99	13
15	1980-12-14	32.44%	New Orleans Saints	1287.75	21	@ New York Jets	1380.76	20
16	1980-11-30	32.92%	Cincinnati Bengals	1389.99	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1479.25	6
17	1980-09-14	33.82%	Atlanta Falcons	1466.08	37	@ New England Patriots	1548.27	21
18	1980-12-07	33.96%	New York Giants	1335.22	27	@ Seattle Seahawks	1416.32	21
19	1980-09-21	34.86%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1464.00	30	Pittsburgh Steelers	1603.52	28
20	1980-10-12	35.20%	@ Oakland Raiders	1477.86	38	San Diego Chargers	1614.71	24
21	1980-10-12	35.88%	Baltimore Colts	1507.49	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1573.85	12
22	1980-10-05	36.08%	Buffalo Bills	1561.85	26	@ San Diego Chargers	1626.72	24
23	1980-10-05	36.66%	Baltimore Colts	1477.17	30	@ Miami Dolphins	1537.63	17
24	1980-09-21	37.02%	Minnesota Vikings	1453.58	34	@ Chicago Bears	1511.37	14
25	1980-09-07	37.17%	Detroit Lions	1465.75	41	@ Los Angeles Rams	1522.42	20

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1980-12-07	47.45	@ Washington Redskins	40	1392.46	25.60%	San Diego Chargers	17	1608.93	73.96%
2	1980-11-09	43.57	Miami Dolphins	35	1466.74	28.48%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1592.40	71.05%
3	1980-11-02	41.51	Minnesota Vikings	39	1425.65	37.47%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1480.11	62.00%
4	1980-11-09	41.29	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1467.16	46.60%	Detroit Lions	0	1521.56	52.84%
5	1980-10-12	39.80	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1479.91	38.81%	@ Seattle Seahawks	3	1524.48	60.65%
6	1980-09-07	38.23	Detroit Lions	41	1465.75	37.17%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1522.42	62.30%
7	1980-12-07	37.80	@ Chicago Bears	61	1491.06	61.13%	Green Bay Packers	7	1443.00	38.33%
8	1980-09-21	37.40	Minnesota Vikings	34	1453.58	37.02%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1511.37	62.45%
9	1980-12-15	37.20	@ Los Angeles Rams	38	1580.60	42.78%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1661.90	56.67%
10	1980-09-14	37.10	Philadelphia Eagles	42	1543.96	52.68%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1490.67	46.76%
11	1980-10-05	37.09	St. Louis Cardinals	40	1467.55	51.29%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1423.96	48.15%
12	1980-10-05	36.35	Seattle Seahawks	26	1488.13	37.20%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1544.60	62.27%
13	1980-12-21	35.39	Washington Redskins	31	1447.74	45.54%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	7	1444.23	53.91%
14	1980-09-14	35.17	Atlanta Falcons	37	1466.08	33.82%	@ New England Patriots	21	1548.27	65.67%
15	1980-09-14	34.33	@ Denver Broncos	41	1497.27	43.53%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1573.25	55.92%
16	1980-10-05	33.93	Kansas City Chiefs	31	1413.29	31.76%	@ Oakland Raiders	17	1511.79	67.75%
17	1980-10-19	33.73	@ Washington Redskins	23	1435.24	46.96%	St. Louis Cardinals	0	1487.10	52.48%
18	1980-11-30	33.35	Cincinnati Bengals	20	1389.99	32.92%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	6	1479.25	66.58%
19	1980-09-14	32.87	Detroit Lions	29	1503.98	47.15%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1489.18	52.29%
20	1980-10-12	32.20	@ Oakland Raiders	38	1477.86	35.20%	San Diego Chargers	24	1614.71	64.28%
21	1980-10-19	32.16	@ Chicago Bears	24	1464.89	41.22%	Detroit Lions	7	1557.30	58.23%
22	1980-10-26	31.55	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1541.81	43.94%	New England Patriots	13	1614.90	55.51%
23	1980-12-07	31.48	@ Kansas City Chiefs	31	1445.90	42.47%	Denver Broncos	14	1529.42	56.99%
24	1980-11-02	31.41	Atlanta Falcons	30	1543.45	40.83%	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1573.36	58.63%
25	1980-11-23	31.26	Green Bay Packers	25	1426.13	32.09%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1521.99	67.42%