1979 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1978

Runner-Up

Los Angeles Rams

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1955

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.83 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.17 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

5.31 wins below expected

2 wins · 7.31 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	.750	-	416	262	+154	10.77	+1.23
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	362	331	+31	8.56	+2.44
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	7	.562	3	359	352	+7	7.47	+1.53
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	8	337	421	-84	6.75	-2.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	10	6	.625	-	341	257	+84	9.99	+0.01
2	New England Patriots	9	7	.562	1	411	326	+85	9.28	-0.28
3	New York Jets	8	8	.500	2	337	383	-46	7.57	+0.43
4	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	3	268	279	-11	6.80	+0.20
5	Baltimore Colts	5	11	.312	5	271	351	-80	6.13	-1.13

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	12	4	.750	-	411	246	+165	9.17	+2.83
2	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	289	262	+27	9.35	+0.65
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	3	378	372	+6	7.27	+1.73
4	Oakland Raiders	9	7	.562	3	365	337	+28	8.59	+0.41
5	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	5	238	262	-24	6.62	+0.38

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	10	6	.625	-	273	237	+36	7.87	+2.13
2	Chicago Bears Playoffs	10	6	.625	-	306	249	+57	8.06	+1.94
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	3	259	337	-78	7.88	-0.88
4	Green Bay Packers	5	11	.312	5	246	316	-70	7.36	-2.36
5	Detroit Lions	2	14	.125	8	219	365	-146	7.31	-5.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	5	.688	-	371	313	+58	10.78	+0.22
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	-	339	282	+57	8.32	+2.68
3	Washington Redskins	10	6	.625	1	348	295	+53	7.92	+2.08
4	New York Giants	6	10	.375	5	237	323	-86	6.91	-0.91
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	11	.312	6	307	358	-51	7.07	-2.07

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	9	7	.562	-	323	309	+14	9.50	-0.50
2	New Orleans Saints	8	8	.500	1	370	360	+10	7.47	+0.53
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	10	.375	3	300	388	-88	7.53	-1.53
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	.125	7	308	416	-108	5.68	-3.68

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Oilers 13

Denver Broncos 7

Dec 23

Divisional Round

Houston Oilers 17

San Diego Chargers 14

Dec 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Miami Dolphins 14

Dec 30

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 27

Houston Oilers 13

Jan 6

NFC

Wild Card Round

Philadelphia Eagles 27

Chicago Bears 17

Dec 23

Divisional Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Philadelphia Eagles 17

Dec 29

Los Angeles Rams 21

Dallas Cowboys 19

Dec 30

Conference Championship

Los Angeles Rams 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

Jan 6

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 31

Los Angeles Rams 19

Jan 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1653	12	10.77	+1.23	82.81%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1629	11	10.78	+0.22	64.47%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1596	12	9.17	+2.83	96.32%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1578	10	9.99	+0.01	60.43%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1570	10	9.35	+0.65	72.41%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1554	9	9.28	-0.28	54.53%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1553	11	8.56	+2.44	93.95%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1550	9	9.50	-0.50	49.79%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1541	9	8.59	+0.41	68.26%	0	5	7	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1541	11	8.32	+2.68	95.24%	0	5	7	8	10	11	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1522	10	7.92	+2.08	91.20%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1511	10	8.06	+1.94	89.78%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1503	9	7.47	+1.53	85.64%	0	4	6	7	9	11	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1496	9	7.27	+1.73	87.86%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1479	8	7.57	+0.43	68.73%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1479	8	7.47	+0.53	70.69%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1470	7	7.88	-0.88	42.85%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1464	4	6.75	-2.75	12.15%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1460	5	7.07	-2.07	21.17%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1452	10	7.87	+2.13	91.15%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1450	7	6.80	+0.20	64.93%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1444	7	6.62	+0.38	68.36%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1439	6	7.53	-1.53	30.41%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1437	5	7.36	-2.36	17.38%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1427	6	6.91	-0.91	42.24%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1415	2	7.31	-5.31	0.48%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1412	5	6.13	-1.13	37.91%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1375	2	5.68	-3.68	3.93%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	-
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	-	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-	-
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.89%	1.56%	1.79%	2.01%	0.89%	0.45%	0.45%	8.04%
7–13	1.56%	4.46%	5.80%	3.35%	2.90%	1.79%	0.67%	20.54%
14–20	1.79%	5.80%	7.14%	3.79%	3.57%	1.12%	0.45%	23.66%
21–27	2.01%	3.35%	3.79%	8.48%	4.24%	1.12%	0.89%	23.88%
28–34	0.89%	2.90%	3.57%	4.24%	1.79%	1.12%	0.22%	14.73%
35–41	0.45%	1.79%	1.12%	1.12%	1.12%	—	0.45%	6.03%
42+	0.45%	0.67%	0.45%	0.89%	0.22%	0.45%	—	3.12%
Total	8.04%	20.54%	23.66%	23.88%	14.73%	6.03%	3.12%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	20.06	+0.00
SD	10.58	10.58	14.86
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	56	56	+53
Min	0	0	-53

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	6.25%	37.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.75	24.25	-5.50
SD	9.92	10.96	14.07
CV	0.53	0.45	—
Max	40	50	+18
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	37.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.94	21.94	-5.00
SD	10.95	11.33	12.65
CV	0.65	0.52	—
Max	38	50	+24
Min	0	7	-29

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.75	17.44	-0.69
SD	14.90	7.54	13.67
CV	0.89	0.43	—
Max	51	31	+27
Min	0	7	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.12	15.56	+3.56
SD	11.44	10.79	15.65
CV	0.60	0.69	—
Max	42	31	+36
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	26.31	-5.25
SD	10.24	12.87	15.08
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	37	51	+24
Min	0	10	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.44	22.00	+0.44
SD	9.19	11.13	10.35
CV	0.41	0.51	—
Max	38	51	+19
Min	9	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	43.75%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.19	19.56	+3.62
SD	9.45	9.09	13.46
CV	0.41	0.46	—
Max	38	34	+25
Min	3	6	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	43.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	25.00%	18.75%	25.00%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.06	16.38	+1.69
SD	12.70	12.50	16.22
CV	0.70	0.76	—
Max	45	42	+35
Min	3	0	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	50.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.69	22.81	-9.12
SD	5.80	10.28	12.99
CV	0.42	0.45	—
Max	24	44	+20
Min	7	0	-37

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	12.50%	31.25%	43.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.38	19.75	-4.38
SD	8.22	8.13	11.18
CV	0.53	0.41	—
Max	28	38	+13
Min	3	6	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.62	20.69	+1.94
SD	10.05	9.16	13.97
CV	0.44	0.44	—
Max	42	38	+21
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	18.75%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.88	16.38	-1.50
SD	11.15	9.71	15.21
CV	0.75	0.59	—
Max	37	30	+28
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.19	19.31	+0.88
SD	8.63	10.56	15.50
CV	0.43	0.55	—
Max	35	40	+24
Min	6	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	50.00%	6.25%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.31	16.06	+5.25
SD	9.76	10.08	11.36
CV	0.46	0.63	—
Max	39	33	+20
Min	3	0	-15

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	50.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	50.00%	—	12.50%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.19	21.06	-4.88
SD	8.26	9.75	10.95
CV	0.51	0.46	—
Max	30	37	+7
Min	7	3	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.69	20.38	+5.31
SD	12.28	11.53	20.04
CV	0.48	0.57	—
Max	56	45	+53
Min	10	3	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.12	22.50	+0.62
SD	11.98	12.47	17.29
CV	0.52	0.55	—
Max	42	42	+31
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
14–20	6.25%	—	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	—	37.50%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.81	20.19	-5.38
SD	8.04	8.63	14.82
CV	0.54	0.43	—
Max	32	31	+21
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	—	—	31.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	18.75%	18.75%	43.75%	6.25%	—	12.50%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.06	23.94	-2.88
SD	9.92	12.72	17.06
CV	0.47	0.53	—
Max	33	56	+21
Min	3	7	-53

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
Total	12.50%	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.81	21.06	+1.75
SD	12.75	10.62	16.75
CV	0.56	0.50	—
Max	50	35	+31
Min	7	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	25.00%	50.00%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.19	17.62	+3.56
SD	8.94	6.99	13.01
CV	0.42	0.40	—
Max	44	37	+37
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
Total	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.00	16.38	+9.62
SD	12.99	11.94	18.93
CV	0.50	0.73	—
Max	51	35	+35
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.69	15.38	+10.31
SD	9.39	11.19	15.10
CV	0.37	0.73	—
Max	40	45	+35
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	43.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	12.50%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.25	26.00	-6.75
SD	5.98	8.35	8.71
CV	0.31	0.32	—
Max	28	38	+16
Min	9	7	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	—	43.75%
35–41	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	18.75%	43.75%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.62	23.25	+0.38
SD	11.66	8.38	14.72
CV	0.49	0.36	—
Max	38	37	+23
Min	0	7	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	31.25%	31.25%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.19	22.38	-3.19
SD	9.89	9.64	14.97
CV	0.52	0.43	—
Max	37	42	+30
Min	0	7	-36

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	12.50%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	18.75%	31.25%	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	14.81	+2.25
SD	9.12	10.44	13.89
CV	0.53	0.71	—
Max	31	42	+28
Min	0	0	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	25.00%	12.50%	18.75%	12.50%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.75	18.44	+3.31
SD	10.12	11.17	13.44
CV	0.47	0.61	—
Max	38	38	+27
Min	6	0	-31

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.40	+0.3
Allowed	0.45	-0.4
Differential	0.83	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	12	9.17	+2.83
2	Philadelphia Eagles	11	8.32	+2.68
3	Houston Oilers	11	8.56	+2.44
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	7.87	+2.13
5	Washington Redskins	10	7.92	+2.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	2	7.31	-5.31
2	San Francisco 49ers	2	5.68	-3.68
3	Cincinnati Bengals	4	6.75	-2.75
4	Green Bay Packers	5	7.36	-2.36
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	7.07	-2.07

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	Sep 1 – Sep 30	1 in 78
2	Houston Oilers	5	Oct 28 – Nov 22	1 in 34
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	Sep 16 – Oct 14	1 in 33
4	New York Giants	4	Oct 7 – Oct 28	1 in 29
5	Washington Redskins	4	Sep 9 – Sep 30	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	8	Sep 30 – Nov 18	1 in 120
2	Cincinnati Bengals	6	Sep 2 – Oct 7	1 in 35
3	Dallas Cowboys	3	Nov 12 – Nov 22	1 in 33
4	San Francisco 49ers	7	Sep 2 – Oct 14	1 in 24
5	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Oct 14 – Nov 11	1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.45%	20.95%	7.42%	2.18%
Houston Oilers	18.26%	38.80%	27.24%	15.71%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.04%	24.31%	35.36%	32.28%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.25%	15.94%	29.98%	49.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	49.19%	28.32%	13.74%	6.43%	2.33%
New England Patriots	33.20%	33.09%	19.15%	10.23%	4.33%
New York Jets	9.78%	18.84%	28.20%	25.11%	18.07%
Buffalo Bills	5.17%	12.32%	22.53%	30.52%	29.46%
Baltimore Colts	2.66%	7.43%	16.38%	27.72%	45.80%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	35.07%	26.77%	19.49%	12.28%	6.40%
San Diego Chargers	31.38%	26.55%	20.81%	13.94%	7.32%
Oakland Raiders	21.37%	24.16%	23.91%	18.79%	11.77%
Seattle Seahawks	7.88%	13.54%	20.39%	28.70%	29.48%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.30%	8.98%	15.40%	26.29%	45.03%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	25.53%	22.34%	19.87%	17.46%	14.80%
Minnesota Vikings	22.59%	21.39%	20.23%	18.95%	16.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21.00%	20.87%	20.08%	19.72%	18.32%
Green Bay Packers	15.88%	17.86%	19.86%	21.86%	24.54%
Detroit Lions	15.00%	17.53%	19.96%	22.02%	25.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	66.33%	20.08%	8.62%	3.69%	1.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	14.10%	28.32%	24.68%	19.46%	13.45%
Washington Redskins	10.30%	23.57%	25.48%	22.71%	17.94%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.04%	15.06%	21.26%	27.27%	31.38%
New York Giants	4.23%	12.97%	19.97%	26.88%	35.96%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	60.94%	24.33%	10.99%	3.73%
Atlanta Falcons	17.86%	31.61%	31.37%	19.16%
New Orleans Saints	17.22%	31.40%	32.04%	19.33%
San Francisco 49ers	3.98%	12.65%	25.60%	57.77%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.80%	20.45%	14.32%	9.64%	7.03%	5.38%	3.67%	2.68%	1.96%	1.30%	0.90%	0.55%	0.26%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins	17.52%	16.67%	14.40%	11.10%	9.58%	7.86%	5.96%	4.81%	3.83%	2.92%	2.20%	1.50%	1.00%	0.64%
Denver Broncos	10.86%	12.31%	12.37%	10.91%	9.80%	8.61%	7.88%	6.75%	5.57%	4.70%	3.76%	2.98%	2.21%	1.30%
New England Patriots	10.85%	11.41%	11.49%	11.21%	10.58%	9.62%	7.81%	6.86%	5.84%	4.36%	3.75%	2.85%	1.96%	1.40%
San Diego Chargers	9.69%	10.74%	11.31%	10.71%	9.71%	9.02%	8.32%	7.24%	6.16%	5.33%	4.36%	3.35%	2.59%	1.48%
Houston Oilers	5.53%	6.92%	7.98%	9.79%	10.39%	10.58%	9.33%	8.69%	8.12%	6.80%	5.73%	4.89%	3.47%	1.81%
Oakland Raiders	5.80%	7.67%	8.36%	9.23%	9.16%	9.10%	9.09%	8.26%	7.70%	7.15%	6.13%	5.21%	4.30%	2.85%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.94%	2.70%	3.87%	5.58%	6.84%	7.82%	8.61%	9.51%	10.32%	9.80%	9.60%	9.97%	8.04%	5.41%
New York Jets	1.94%	3.34%	4.41%	5.71%	6.64%	7.46%	8.37%	9.25%	9.43%	9.29%	9.37%	8.71%	7.95%	8.13%
Seattle Seahawks	1.41%	2.68%	3.69%	4.63%	5.46%	6.22%	7.61%	8.01%	8.60%	10.10%	10.28%	10.45%	10.95%	9.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.81%	1.46%	2.08%	3.42%	4.32%	5.45%	6.71%	7.92%	9.28%	10.08%	11.58%	13.75%	12.87%	10.28%
Buffalo Bills	0.83%	1.58%	2.38%	3.20%	4.36%	5.15%	6.35%	7.73%	8.81%	9.69%	11.39%	11.68%	12.29%	14.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.69%	1.32%	2.11%	2.95%	3.60%	4.38%	5.76%	6.53%	7.53%	9.78%	10.30%	11.84%	15.83%	17.39%
Baltimore Colts	0.33%	0.74%	1.24%	1.90%	2.52%	3.38%	4.52%	5.78%	6.87%	8.71%	10.66%	12.29%	16.29%	24.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	43.42%	18.62%	11.26%	7.87%	5.29%	3.92%	3.03%	2.19%	1.54%	1.12%	0.83%	0.48%	0.30%	0.14%
Los Angeles Rams	16.64%	19.30%	15.36%	10.74%	8.63%	7.52%	5.56%	4.40%	3.77%	2.84%	2.07%	1.63%	1.04%	0.50%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.99%	7.42%	8.50%	9.80%	9.14%	8.45%	8.66%	7.86%	7.21%	6.85%	6.08%	5.21%	4.36%	3.47%
Chicago Bears	5.14%	8.33%	9.08%	8.52%	8.66%	8.30%	7.81%	7.85%	7.20%	6.71%	6.62%	5.81%	5.31%	4.65%
Minnesota Vikings	4.42%	7.20%	8.11%	7.86%	8.34%	8.11%	7.81%	8.02%	7.55%	7.18%	7.41%	6.39%	6.16%	5.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.15%	7.23%	7.86%	7.86%	8.04%	7.86%	7.77%	7.76%	7.38%	7.54%	7.25%	6.78%	6.58%	5.94%
Washington Redskins	4.76%	5.53%	6.73%	8.54%	8.25%	8.12%	8.77%	8.34%	7.91%	8.00%	7.38%	6.57%	6.04%	5.06%
Atlanta Falcons	2.83%	5.54%	6.40%	7.25%	8.04%	8.92%	8.39%	8.45%	9.28%	8.18%	7.52%	7.61%	6.56%	5.02%
New Orleans Saints	2.73%	5.15%	6.23%	6.90%	8.01%	8.85%	8.53%	8.64%	9.35%	8.15%	7.74%	7.65%	6.85%	5.24%
Green Bay Packers	2.48%	4.97%	6.10%	6.37%	7.02%	7.00%	7.41%	7.88%	7.82%	8.23%	8.69%	8.51%	8.67%	8.86%
Detroit Lions	2.31%	4.76%	5.85%	6.12%	6.83%	7.18%	7.34%	7.89%	7.83%	8.34%	8.78%	8.60%	8.96%	9.20%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.00%	2.70%	3.84%	5.36%	5.92%	6.26%	7.46%	7.92%	8.26%	9.38%	9.85%	9.77%	10.44%	10.83%
New York Giants	1.71%	2.38%	3.38%	4.83%	5.20%	5.89%	7.28%	7.40%	7.90%	9.36%	9.89%	10.60%	11.48%	12.68%
San Francisco 49ers	0.42%	0.87%	1.31%	1.98%	2.63%	3.60%	4.19%	5.41%	7.00%	8.09%	9.90%	14.39%	17.26%	22.95%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	21.13%	17.93%	10.36%	9.35%	6.30%	5.90%	4.43%	4.09%	3.12%	2.90%	2.35%	2.00%	1.63%	1.54%	1.28%	1.11%	0.88%	0.78%	0.62%	0.56%	0.48%	0.38%	0.27%	0.21%	0.17%	0.11%	0.09%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	21.46%	13.81%	11.77%	8.57%	7.73%	5.90%	5.07%	3.91%	3.65%	2.93%	2.83%	2.16%	1.76%	1.45%	1.34%	1.16%	0.97%	0.77%	0.65%	0.53%	0.47%	0.37%	0.25%	0.21%	0.13%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	10.78%	9.67%	9.44%	7.89%	7.68%	6.53%	5.97%	4.75%	4.83%	4.08%	4.05%	3.42%	2.88%	2.45%	2.52%	2.10%	1.93%	1.57%	1.46%	1.22%	1.15%	0.89%	0.75%	0.60%	0.52%	0.39%	0.33%	0.15%
Los Angeles Rams	6.88%	8.38%	8.00%	8.90%	6.98%	7.56%	5.56%	6.13%	4.67%	4.66%	3.61%	4.04%	3.39%	3.37%	2.21%	2.27%	2.13%	2.23%	1.60%	1.52%	1.17%	1.22%	0.94%	0.85%	0.62%	0.55%	0.30%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	6.38%	6.26%	7.26%	6.29%	6.96%	5.64%	6.01%	4.79%	5.12%	4.30%	4.75%	3.88%	3.84%	3.26%	3.40%	3.18%	2.79%	2.33%	2.17%	2.07%	1.99%	1.61%	1.40%	1.28%	1.10%	0.89%	0.68%	0.38%
New England Patriots	6.30%	5.98%	6.70%	5.95%	6.44%	5.61%	6.13%	4.93%	5.43%	4.76%	4.93%	4.19%	3.83%	3.37%	3.57%	3.18%	2.81%	2.46%	2.23%	2.01%	1.95%	1.57%	1.42%	1.21%	1.04%	0.85%	0.71%	0.44%
San Diego Chargers	5.46%	5.61%	6.35%	5.58%	6.19%	5.53%	5.87%	4.91%	5.16%	4.39%	4.91%	4.15%	4.06%	3.42%	3.79%	3.33%	3.13%	2.54%	2.57%	2.35%	2.28%	1.90%	1.65%	1.31%	1.36%	1.02%	0.75%	0.45%
Houston Oilers	3.05%	3.31%	4.16%	3.91%	4.67%	4.30%	5.32%	4.54%	5.32%	4.82%	5.21%	4.70%	4.68%	4.21%	4.40%	3.97%	3.92%	3.54%	3.47%	3.17%	2.89%	2.50%	2.53%	2.20%	1.78%	1.55%	1.05%	0.82%
Oakland Raiders	3.05%	3.57%	4.54%	4.12%	4.86%	4.29%	5.11%	4.26%	4.99%	4.39%	4.92%	4.28%	4.45%	3.74%	4.35%	4.01%	3.93%	3.33%	3.38%	3.23%	3.21%	2.73%	2.60%	2.31%	2.13%	1.74%	1.51%	0.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.38%	3.44%	3.38%	3.89%	3.91%	4.45%	4.29%	5.09%	4.18%	4.97%	4.16%	4.46%	4.15%	4.79%	3.98%	4.01%	3.73%	3.86%	3.58%	3.57%	3.15%	3.10%	2.82%	2.68%	2.34%	2.23%	1.89%	1.51%
Chicago Bears	1.64%	2.69%	3.11%	4.01%	3.80%	4.55%	3.87%	4.75%	4.12%	4.52%	3.91%	4.44%	4.15%	4.51%	3.82%	3.99%	3.79%	4.06%	3.49%	3.55%	3.45%	3.44%	3.16%	3.05%	2.89%	2.75%	2.45%	2.03%
Minnesota Vikings	1.40%	2.24%	2.66%	3.54%	3.41%	4.00%	3.51%	4.39%	4.00%	4.41%	3.61%	4.36%	4.07%	4.37%	3.81%	4.20%	3.91%	4.23%	3.71%	4.02%	3.66%	3.87%	3.57%	3.32%	3.21%	3.15%	2.97%	2.41%
Washington Redskins	1.35%	2.34%	2.50%	2.97%	3.07%	3.59%	3.57%	4.38%	3.78%	4.55%	4.00%	4.14%	4.14%	4.77%	4.19%	4.27%	4.17%	4.14%	4.14%	4.10%	3.75%	3.84%	3.62%	3.43%	3.26%	2.98%	2.75%	2.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.29%	2.12%	2.55%	3.65%	3.10%	4.22%	3.53%	4.37%	3.65%	4.50%	3.62%	4.22%	4.03%	4.46%	3.79%	3.97%	3.82%	3.99%	3.98%	3.97%	3.73%	3.76%	3.68%	3.43%	3.48%	3.26%	3.12%	2.72%
Atlanta Falcons	0.76%	1.51%	1.94%	2.76%	2.70%	3.25%	3.02%	3.85%	3.62%	4.17%	3.61%	4.70%	4.22%	4.65%	3.73%	4.41%	4.44%	5.15%	4.09%	4.25%	3.89%	4.41%	3.90%	4.08%	3.48%	3.74%	2.91%	2.77%
New Orleans Saints	0.77%	1.40%	1.88%	2.48%	2.63%	3.05%	2.99%	3.77%	3.55%	3.91%	3.59%	4.68%	4.35%	4.69%	3.86%	4.34%	4.50%	5.27%	4.10%	4.25%	3.95%	4.49%	3.95%	4.14%	3.57%	3.80%	3.07%	2.98%
New York Jets	0.91%	1.32%	1.83%	2.02%	2.56%	2.53%	3.24%	2.92%	3.48%	3.31%	4.16%	3.80%	4.17%	3.82%	4.81%	4.45%	4.61%	4.20%	4.64%	4.45%	4.76%	4.17%	4.37%	4.18%	4.18%	3.77%	3.93%	3.41%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.96%	1.20%	1.67%	1.59%	2.33%	2.21%	3.13%	2.73%	3.63%	3.38%	4.17%	3.91%	4.19%	3.99%	4.83%	4.56%	4.71%	4.89%	4.82%	4.75%	4.67%	4.55%	4.72%	4.62%	3.89%	3.94%	3.10%	2.85%
Green Bay Packers	0.68%	1.32%	1.69%	2.41%	2.37%	3.08%	2.85%	3.43%	3.25%	3.51%	3.35%	3.79%	3.73%	4.07%	3.71%	4.04%	4.12%	4.22%	4.30%	4.29%	4.27%	4.56%	4.58%	4.50%	4.39%	4.59%	4.53%	4.35%
Detroit Lions	0.67%	1.23%	1.66%	2.31%	2.31%	2.84%	2.71%	3.34%	3.14%	3.56%	3.36%	3.69%	3.78%	4.09%	3.75%	4.01%	4.02%	4.21%	4.39%	4.33%	4.43%	4.58%	4.52%	4.56%	4.47%	4.79%	4.69%	4.58%
Seattle Seahawks	0.64%	0.97%	1.51%	1.60%	2.08%	1.98%	2.58%	2.35%	3.07%	2.78%	3.67%	3.22%	3.88%	3.35%	4.50%	4.07%	4.38%	4.06%	4.89%	4.82%	5.01%	4.94%	4.83%	5.14%	5.19%	5.07%	4.90%	4.50%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.50%	0.97%	1.14%	1.39%	1.73%	1.91%	2.17%	2.82%	2.61%	3.16%	3.00%	3.32%	3.43%	3.99%	3.75%	4.15%	4.11%	4.51%	4.53%	4.97%	4.78%	5.05%	5.05%	5.29%	5.17%	5.49%	5.70%	5.33%
New York Giants	0.39%	0.81%	0.86%	1.27%	1.38%	1.82%	1.87%	2.52%	2.36%	2.94%	2.71%	3.12%	3.27%	4.01%	3.56%	3.97%	3.85%	4.28%	4.61%	4.97%	4.85%	5.19%	5.37%	5.58%	5.85%	5.76%	6.33%	6.49%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.36%	0.53%	0.81%	0.91%	1.19%	1.32%	1.85%	1.75%	2.39%	2.21%	3.01%	2.73%	3.43%	3.22%	4.18%	3.92%	4.49%	4.35%	4.84%	4.92%	5.50%	5.59%	6.12%	6.39%	6.24%	6.48%	5.50%	5.77%
Buffalo Bills	0.35%	0.53%	0.88%	0.96%	1.35%	1.32%	1.97%	1.65%	2.46%	2.28%	2.85%	2.64%	3.27%	3.03%	4.13%	3.97%	4.31%	4.19%	4.87%	4.75%	5.51%	5.34%	5.72%	5.71%	6.19%	6.01%	6.99%	6.77%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.26%	0.47%	0.72%	0.84%	1.13%	1.23%	1.63%	1.53%	2.02%	1.96%	2.49%	2.27%	2.96%	2.84%	3.55%	3.56%	3.91%	3.61%	4.94%	4.72%	5.32%	5.07%	5.94%	5.99%	7.65%	7.02%	8.27%	8.13%
Baltimore Colts	0.13%	0.21%	0.40%	0.44%	0.66%	0.77%	1.01%	1.02%	1.36%	1.42%	1.80%	1.84%	2.29%	2.28%	3.11%	3.09%	3.44%	3.38%	4.36%	4.43%	5.20%	5.35%	6.20%	6.29%	7.88%	8.24%	10.94%	12.42%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.19%	0.23%	0.41%	0.47%	0.61%	0.73%	1.03%	1.06%	1.23%	1.38%	1.85%	1.99%	2.23%	2.08%	2.68%	3.20%	3.85%	3.59%	4.23%	4.54%	5.55%	6.06%	7.45%	7.79%	9.76%	10.50%	15.25%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.80%	21.06%	16.59%	8.13%	6.30%	16.12%
Miami Dolphins	17.52%	16.77%	14.89%	10.88%	9.46%	30.48%
Denver Broncos	10.86%	12.41%	11.80%	11.07%	9.94%	43.93%
New England Patriots	10.85%	11.21%	11.13%	12.01%	10.52%	44.27%
San Diego Chargers	9.69%	10.80%	10.89%	10.73%	9.84%	48.05%
Oakland Raiders	5.80%	7.65%	7.92%	9.29%	9.28%	60.05%
Houston Oilers	5.53%	6.21%	6.52%	11.51%	10.96%	59.27%
New York Jets	1.94%	3.34%	4.50%	5.46%	6.69%	78.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.94%	2.54%	3.56%	5.92%	6.93%	79.11%
Seattle Seahawks	1.41%	2.74%	3.73%	4.37%	5.42%	82.32%
Buffalo Bills	0.83%	1.67%	2.67%	2.90%	4.23%	87.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.81%	1.39%	2.05%	3.44%	4.38%	87.93%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.69%	1.41%	2.20%	2.67%	3.59%	89.43%
Baltimore Colts	0.33%	0.79%	1.54%	1.62%	2.45%	93.27%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	43.42%	16.41%	6.51%	13.19%	6.43%	14.05%
Los Angeles Rams	16.64%	21.70%	22.60%	5.64%	6.41%	27.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.99%	4.69%	2.41%	15.76%	10.82%	59.32%
Chicago Bears	5.14%	9.60%	10.79%	6.13%	8.12%	60.22%
Washington Redskins	4.76%	3.55%	1.99%	12.62%	9.76%	67.31%
Minnesota Vikings	4.42%	8.22%	9.96%	5.55%	7.80%	64.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.15%	8.10%	8.75%	6.13%	7.85%	65.02%
Atlanta Falcons	2.83%	6.16%	8.86%	5.72%	7.49%	68.94%
New Orleans Saints	2.73%	5.77%	8.73%	5.37%	7.41%	70.00%
Green Bay Packers	2.48%	5.84%	7.56%	4.54%	6.53%	73.06%
Detroit Lions	2.31%	5.54%	7.14%	4.44%	6.38%	74.18%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.00%	1.81%	1.23%	7.15%	6.75%	81.06%
New York Giants	1.71%	1.54%	0.97%	6.43%	5.92%	83.42%
San Francisco 49ers	0.42%	1.07%	2.49%	1.33%	2.33%	92.36%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+17.86%

Fortress

58.93%41.07%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 62.71 Elo pts.

17 Elo

0.060 points per Elo point

050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+4.52 points

Home-Tilted

-8+3.75+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.3

Wide Open

124811

Champion Preseason Odds

21%

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2nd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

30.9%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%50%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.54 · As Expected: 1.54 to 2.12 · Elevated: 2.12 to 2.88 · High Variance: 2.88 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.19 · Close: 5.19 to 7.02 · Off Target: 7.02 to 9.16 · Well Off Target: 9.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.02 · As Expected: 3.02 to 5.03 · More Than Expected: 5.03 to 8.05 · Far More Than Expected: 8.05 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.95 wins

As Expected

01.925

Average Finish Error

Expected

4.29

Pinpoint

06.1015

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

96.32%

San Diego Chargers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

0.48%

Detroit Lions

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 28

Several Outliers

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

04.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.65

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

64%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

83%

Lopsided

50%84%100%

Close Games

Expected

23%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.23

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.02

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.61

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

38%

As Expected

0%38%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

28%

As Expected

0%32%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.04 · Within Noise: 0.04 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.79

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.39

Underconfident

0.4903931.001.50961

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.034

Well Within Noise

00.0880.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	80.52%	80.52%	58.56%	40.41%	21.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	78.95%	78.95%	52.29%	33.92%	21.34%
Los Angeles Rams	67.70%	67.70%	36.62%	18.52%	8.10%
Miami Dolphins	60.31%	60.31%	30.86%	14.86%	7.87%
San Diego Chargers	43.26%	43.26%	22.59%	11.51%	6.41%
Denver Broncos	46.49%	46.49%	23.14%	10.93%	5.73%
New England Patriots	44.71%	44.71%	20.69%	9.25%	4.68%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.93%	29.93%	16.58%	7.70%	3.33%
Houston Oilers	29.86%	29.86%	14.37%	6.21%	3.12%
Oakland Raiders	30.63%	30.63%	13.49%	5.64%	2.67%
Chicago Bears	32.56%	32.56%	14.35%	6.24%	2.47%
Washington Redskins	22.83%	22.83%	12.08%	5.36%	2.20%
Minnesota Vikings	28.43%	28.43%	11.03%	4.20%	1.40%
New Orleans Saints	23.07%	23.07%	9.47%	3.62%	1.24%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26.72%	26.72%	9.98%	3.53%	1.11%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.69%	13.69%	5.50%	2.05%	0.92%
Atlanta Falcons	23.25%	23.25%	8.48%	2.90%	0.88%
New York Jets	14.71%	14.71%	5.02%	1.76%	0.74%
Green Bay Packers	20.19%	20.19%	6.92%	2.30%	0.70%
Seattle Seahawks	12.02%	12.02%	4.28%	1.52%	0.67%
St. Louis Cardinals	13.90%	11.48%	5.01%	1.78%	0.58%
Detroit Lions	18.88%	18.88%	5.86%	1.86%	0.54%
New York Giants	12.35%	9.34%	3.69%	1.20%	0.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.82%	7.22%	2.51%	0.80%	0.34%
Buffalo Bills	7.65%	7.65%	2.37%	0.74%	0.25%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.58%	6.58%	1.94%	0.57%	0.22%
San Francisco 49ers	5.10%	5.10%	1.39%	0.38%	0.08%
Baltimore Colts	4.07%	3.91%	0.96%	0.24%	0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		36.7%0.05%	43.2%0.18%	37.7%0.28%	28.8%0.59%	27.4%0.49%	39.7%0.14%	25.7%0.24%	29.3%0.26%	50.4%0.12%	33.3%0.55%	20.9%0.34%	25.0%0.56%	34.0%0.29%
Buffalo Bills	63.3%0.05%		46.8%0.30%	40.8%0.58%	30.7%0.97%	33.2%1.04%	53.3%0.31%	33.4%0.42%	34.2%0.44%	41.8%0.19%	35.9%0.83%	21.5%0.61%	28.7%0.96%	43.2%0.43%
Cincinnati Bengals	56.8%0.18%	53.2%0.30%		37.0%0.22%	33.4%1.02%	35.3%0.44%	55.0%0.29%	34.3%1.01%	38.1%1.10%	45.7%0.57%	37.0%0.95%	26.9%0.29%	30.2%1.00%	46.7%0.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.3%0.28%	59.2%0.58%	63.0%0.22%		39.0%1.76%	44.2%0.81%	60.1%0.51%	39.4%1.62%	40.9%1.82%	53.5%0.87%	42.6%1.53%	27.8%0.39%	37.2%1.69%	52.0%0.79%
Denver Broncos	71.2%0.59%	69.3%0.97%	66.6%1.02%	61.0%1.76%		52.1%3.17%	67.1%0.38%	49.0%2.95%	52.8%3.30%	62.6%1.74%	53.6%1.25%	36.9%2.07%	47.1%1.14%	64.2%0.67%
Houston Oilers	72.6%0.49%	66.8%1.04%	64.7%0.44%	55.8%0.81%	47.9%3.17%		65.0%0.90%	45.3%3.00%	48.4%3.33%	60.9%1.70%	50.5%2.72%	31.9%0.40%	45.2%3.04%	57.9%1.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.3%0.14%	46.7%0.31%	45.0%0.29%	39.9%0.51%	32.9%0.38%	35.0%0.90%		32.4%0.86%	36.1%0.93%	46.7%0.50%	37.1%0.35%	20.8%0.55%	30.9%0.39%	42.9%0.16%
Miami Dolphins	74.3%0.24%	66.6%0.42%	65.7%1.01%	60.6%1.62%	51.0%2.95%	54.7%3.00%	67.6%0.86%		52.7%0.62%	65.8%0.77%	55.5%2.58%	40.7%2.01%	46.6%2.89%	63.6%1.37%
New England Patriots	70.7%0.26%	65.8%0.44%	61.9%1.10%	59.1%1.82%	47.2%3.30%	51.6%3.33%	63.9%0.93%	47.3%0.62%		59.3%0.87%	52.2%2.87%	35.0%2.20%	44.0%3.32%	59.3%1.47%
New York Jets	49.6%0.12%	58.2%0.19%	54.3%0.57%	46.5%0.87%	37.4%1.74%	39.1%1.70%	53.3%0.50%	34.2%0.77%	40.7%0.87%		42.9%1.42%	28.6%1.02%	35.1%1.70%	52.1%0.68%
Oakland Raiders	66.7%0.55%	64.1%0.83%	63.0%0.95%	57.4%1.53%	46.4%1.25%	49.5%2.72%	62.9%0.35%	44.5%2.58%	47.8%2.87%	57.1%1.42%		34.0%1.73%	41.7%1.24%	54.1%0.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	79.1%0.34%	78.5%0.61%	73.1%0.29%	72.2%0.39%	63.1%2.07%	68.1%0.40%	79.2%0.55%	59.3%2.01%	65.0%2.20%	71.4%1.02%	66.0%1.73%		57.4%2.00%	73.9%0.83%
San Diego Chargers	75.0%0.56%	71.3%0.96%	69.8%1.00%	62.8%1.69%	52.9%1.14%	54.8%3.04%	69.1%0.39%	53.4%2.89%	56.0%3.32%	64.9%1.70%	58.3%1.24%	42.6%2.00%		62.6%0.64%
Seattle Seahawks	66.0%0.29%	56.8%0.43%	53.3%0.47%	48.0%0.79%	35.8%0.67%	42.1%1.44%	57.1%0.16%	36.4%1.37%	40.7%1.47%	47.9%0.68%	45.9%0.55%	26.1%0.83%	37.4%0.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		40.5%0.93%	23.2%1.70%	55.2%0.72%	53.8%0.70%	33.8%0.26%	46.0%0.89%	43.3%0.47%	51.1%0.99%	35.2%2.40%	57.9%0.10%	46.4%1.25%	50.9%0.87%	37.0%1.92%
Chicago Bears	59.5%0.93%		30.8%2.10%	63.4%0.37%	58.6%0.38%	43.9%0.88%	55.4%0.45%	54.5%0.91%	61.2%1.22%	44.2%2.77%	70.6%0.24%	57.8%1.33%	59.6%0.45%	48.0%2.23%
Dallas Cowboys	76.8%1.70%	69.2%2.10%		77.5%1.56%	77.7%1.55%	64.5%1.65%	71.9%1.97%	72.1%1.70%	77.9%0.90%	63.5%1.47%	81.4%0.52%	77.7%1.01%	73.7%2.02%	66.7%1.50%
Detroit Lions	44.8%0.72%	36.6%0.37%	22.5%1.56%		53.7%0.29%	29.3%0.65%	43.0%0.36%	38.8%0.69%	44.9%1.03%	29.4%1.99%	59.8%0.20%	40.0%0.98%	50.1%0.35%	34.7%1.64%
Green Bay Packers	46.2%0.70%	41.4%0.38%	22.3%1.55%	46.3%0.29%		34.3%0.66%	47.1%0.32%	48.7%0.71%	52.7%0.95%	32.7%2.10%	65.1%0.19%	44.4%1.07%	50.4%0.39%	36.7%1.75%
Los Angeles Rams	66.2%0.26%	56.1%0.88%	35.5%1.65%	70.7%0.65%	65.7%0.66%		63.1%0.81%	63.7%0.27%	66.5%0.95%	49.5%2.23%	80.2%0.08%	63.8%1.12%	63.0%0.82%	53.3%1.67%
Minnesota Vikings	54.0%0.89%	44.6%0.45%	28.1%1.97%	57.0%0.36%	52.9%0.32%	36.9%0.81%		48.0%0.92%	56.9%1.06%	41.1%2.57%	62.0%0.22%	47.1%1.19%	54.1%0.52%	41.1%2.08%
New Orleans Saints	56.7%0.47%	45.5%0.91%	27.9%1.70%	61.2%0.69%	51.3%0.71%	36.3%0.27%	52.0%0.92%		56.9%0.95%	40.0%2.18%	69.7%0.10%	52.3%1.13%	54.6%0.87%	41.5%1.88%
New York Giants	48.9%0.99%	38.8%1.22%	22.1%0.90%	55.1%1.03%	47.3%0.95%	33.5%0.95%	43.1%1.06%	43.1%0.95%		33.8%1.33%	61.2%0.26%	47.6%0.55%	45.8%1.13%	35.6%1.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.8%2.40%	55.8%2.77%	36.5%1.47%	70.6%1.99%	67.3%2.10%	50.5%2.23%	58.9%2.57%	60.0%2.18%	66.2%1.33%		72.9%0.64%	61.8%1.47%	63.6%2.73%	53.1%2.71%
San Francisco 49ers	42.1%0.10%	29.4%0.24%	18.6%0.52%	40.2%0.20%	34.9%0.19%	19.8%0.08%	38.0%0.22%	30.3%0.10%	38.8%0.26%	27.1%0.64%		32.8%0.30%	47.0%0.25%	27.3%0.57%
St. Louis Cardinals	53.6%1.25%	42.2%1.33%	22.3%1.01%	60.0%0.98%	55.6%1.07%	36.2%1.12%	52.9%1.19%	47.7%1.13%	52.4%0.55%	38.2%1.47%	67.2%0.30%		53.1%1.34%	40.9%1.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	49.1%0.87%	40.4%0.45%	26.3%2.02%	49.9%0.35%	49.6%0.39%	37.0%0.82%	45.9%0.52%	45.4%0.87%	54.2%1.13%	36.4%2.73%	53.0%0.25%	46.9%1.34%		40.4%2.23%
Washington Redskins	63.0%1.92%	52.0%2.23%	33.3%1.50%	65.3%1.64%	63.3%1.75%	46.7%1.67%	58.9%2.08%	58.5%1.88%	64.4%1.04%	46.9%2.71%	72.7%0.57%	59.1%1.17%	59.6%2.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			50.5%0.10%	36.5%0.16%	22.5%0.71%	28.3%0.37%	42.6%0.06%				32.1%0.44%	16.1%1.23%	22.0%0.67%	41.9%0.18%
Buffalo Bills			54.4%0.16%	41.1%0.35%	33.3%1.34%	32.3%0.84%	52.7%0.17%				35.2%0.89%	22.5%2.39%	27.6%1.16%	46.5%0.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.5%0.10%	45.6%0.16%			31.0%1.25%		44.9%0.16%	32.7%1.83%	35.6%1.10%	42.0%0.35%	36.8%0.88%		29.2%1.09%	49.8%0.30%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	63.5%0.16%	58.9%0.35%			37.8%2.51%		57.2%0.27%	35.1%3.15%	39.8%2.23%	51.0%0.63%	43.5%1.54%		35.1%2.32%	54.8%0.52%
Denver Broncos	77.5%0.71%	66.7%1.34%	69.0%1.25%	62.2%2.51%		55.7%5.50%		48.3%11.00%	52.9%7.77%	63.8%2.79%		36.7%13.62%
Houston Oilers	71.7%0.37%	67.7%0.84%			44.3%5.50%		66.8%0.64%	43.7%6.83%	48.6%4.97%	63.1%1.44%	50.5%3.21%		42.0%4.92%	59.5%1.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	57.4%0.06%	47.3%0.17%	55.1%0.16%	42.8%0.27%		33.2%0.64%		28.1%1.67%	33.5%1.13%	45.7%0.34%		19.2%2.15%
Miami Dolphins			67.3%1.83%	64.9%3.15%	51.7%11.00%	56.3%6.83%	71.9%1.67%				57.0%7.02%	37.8%15.56%	49.2%10.39%	65.3%2.88%
New England Patriots			64.4%1.10%	60.2%2.23%	47.1%7.77%	51.4%4.97%	66.5%1.13%				52.6%5.41%	34.0%12.68%	44.3%7.27%	60.1%2.15%
New York Jets			58.0%0.35%	49.0%0.63%	36.2%2.79%	36.9%1.44%	54.3%0.34%				40.4%1.52%	24.5%4.65%	32.0%2.38%	44.7%0.61%
Oakland Raiders	67.9%0.44%	64.8%0.89%	63.2%0.88%	56.5%1.54%		49.5%3.21%		43.0%7.02%	47.4%5.41%	59.6%1.52%		31.9%9.71%
Pittsburgh Steelers	83.9%1.23%	77.5%2.39%			63.3%13.62%		80.8%2.15%	62.2%15.56%	66.0%12.68%	75.5%4.65%	68.1%9.71%		60.6%13.07%	75.6%3.90%
San Diego Chargers	78.0%0.67%	72.4%1.16%	70.8%1.09%	64.9%2.32%		58.0%4.92%		50.8%10.39%	55.7%7.27%	68.0%2.38%		39.4%13.07%
Seattle Seahawks	58.1%0.18%	53.5%0.35%	50.2%0.30%	45.2%0.52%		40.5%1.13%		34.7%2.88%	39.9%2.15%	55.3%0.61%		24.4%3.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		38.3%2.41%	21.5%8.03%	55.0%1.30%	51.2%1.43%		45.7%2.19%		53.8%0.73%	35.5%2.42%		49.5%1.04%	47.9%1.87%	39.6%1.84%
Chicago Bears	61.7%2.41%		30.0%11.08%			43.6%6.42%		55.2%2.31%	64.2%1.27%	47.4%4.05%	68.6%0.49%	60.0%1.43%		49.4%3.10%
Dallas Cowboys	78.5%8.03%	70.0%11.08%		80.6%6.43%	78.0%6.93%	63.9%19.43%	73.8%9.56%	74.0%8.21%			84.0%1.82%		75.6%9.04%
Detroit Lions	45.0%1.30%		19.4%6.43%			30.8%4.13%		41.7%1.24%	48.9%0.77%	32.1%2.27%	55.3%0.29%	46.7%0.89%		35.7%1.55%
Green Bay Packers	48.8%1.43%		22.0%6.93%			33.9%4.31%		46.1%1.39%	52.3%0.83%	37.7%2.27%	60.8%0.33%	45.7%0.98%		38.4%1.73%
Los Angeles Rams		56.4%6.42%	36.1%19.43%	69.2%4.13%	66.1%4.31%		62.4%5.71%		70.3%2.86%	54.9%9.02%		67.3%3.41%	63.3%5.40%	57.6%7.01%
Minnesota Vikings	54.3%2.19%		26.2%9.56%			37.6%5.71%		48.9%2.02%	57.3%1.08%	41.2%3.57%	68.7%0.44%	52.5%1.24%		44.1%2.64%
New Orleans Saints		44.8%2.31%	26.0%8.21%	58.3%1.24%	53.9%1.39%		51.1%2.02%		57.6%0.77%	43.6%2.46%		54.0%1.00%	51.4%1.82%	43.4%1.85%
New York Giants	46.2%0.73%	35.8%1.27%		51.1%0.77%	47.7%0.83%	29.7%2.86%	42.7%1.08%	42.4%0.77%			50.3%0.16%		44.9%0.87%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.5%2.42%	52.6%4.05%		67.9%2.27%	62.3%2.27%	45.1%9.02%	58.8%3.57%	56.4%2.46%			75.2%0.54%		59.2%3.34%
San Francisco 49ers		31.4%0.49%	16.0%1.82%	44.7%0.29%	39.2%0.33%		31.3%0.44%		49.7%0.16%	24.8%0.54%		34.8%0.20%	33.0%0.40%	29.5%0.43%
St. Louis Cardinals	50.5%1.04%	40.0%1.43%		53.3%0.89%	54.3%0.98%	32.7%3.41%	47.5%1.24%	46.0%1.00%			65.2%0.20%		47.2%1.30%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	52.1%1.87%		24.4%9.04%			36.7%5.40%		48.6%1.82%	55.1%0.87%	40.8%3.34%	67.0%0.40%	52.8%1.30%		42.6%2.68%
Washington Redskins	60.4%1.84%	50.6%3.10%		64.3%1.55%	61.6%1.73%	42.4%7.01%	55.9%2.64%	56.6%1.85%			70.5%0.43%		57.4%2.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		100.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%	35.7%0.03%	28.3%0.12%	23.2%0.06%	62.5%<0.01%	26.2%0.13%	40.3%0.07%	23.8%0.02%	32.9%0.07%	16.7%0.32%	23.1%0.11%	44.4%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%<0.01%		51.7%0.03%	38.2%0.07%	33.2%0.29%	37.4%0.16%	52.6%0.02%	30.7%0.34%	40.4%0.16%	50.0%0.04%	36.8%0.16%	22.6%0.79%	30.8%0.26%	44.9%0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	88.9%<0.01%	48.3%0.03%		43.5%0.05%	33.9%0.28%	37.3%0.10%	33.3%0.03%	32.2%0.41%	38.0%0.26%	42.9%0.07%	39.5%0.20%	22.5%0.74%	30.4%0.29%	46.3%0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	64.3%0.03%	61.8%0.07%	56.5%0.05%		36.1%0.62%	40.5%0.27%	66.7%0.05%	38.3%0.88%	42.1%0.61%	57.3%0.12%	50.8%0.32%	27.4%1.75%	37.6%0.64%	56.0%0.10%
Denver Broncos	71.7%0.12%	66.8%0.29%	66.1%0.28%	63.9%0.62%		54.1%1.68%	64.9%0.19%	48.9%3.88%	51.8%2.38%	64.8%0.61%	53.1%1.54%	37.1%8.14%	46.5%2.93%	65.2%0.47%
Houston Oilers	76.8%0.06%	62.6%0.16%	62.7%0.10%	59.5%0.27%	45.9%1.68%		69.5%0.14%	45.5%2.21%	45.7%1.58%	56.3%0.31%	51.9%0.87%	34.2%4.96%	42.7%1.74%	60.8%0.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	37.5%<0.01%	47.4%0.02%	66.7%0.03%	33.3%0.05%	35.1%0.19%	30.5%0.14%		31.1%0.30%	33.7%0.20%	48.7%0.04%	40.9%0.09%	20.0%0.68%	28.0%0.16%	35.7%0.03%
Miami Dolphins	73.8%0.13%	69.3%0.34%	67.8%0.41%	61.7%0.88%	51.1%3.88%	54.5%2.21%	68.9%0.30%		55.0%3.48%	60.2%0.66%	57.6%2.14%	38.0%11.89%	47.7%3.92%	62.3%0.62%
New England Patriots	59.7%0.07%	59.6%0.16%	62.0%0.26%	57.9%0.61%	48.2%2.38%	54.3%1.58%	66.3%0.20%	45.0%3.48%		60.1%0.41%	53.5%1.43%	35.2%7.30%	44.8%2.37%	56.9%0.45%
New York Jets	76.2%0.02%	50.0%0.04%	57.1%0.07%	42.7%0.12%	35.2%0.61%	43.7%0.31%	51.3%0.04%	39.8%0.66%	39.9%0.41%		42.8%0.35%	25.5%1.73%	34.8%0.59%	53.9%0.08%
Oakland Raiders	67.1%0.07%	63.2%0.16%	60.5%0.20%	49.2%0.32%	46.9%1.54%	48.1%0.87%	59.1%0.09%	42.4%2.14%	46.5%1.43%	57.2%0.35%		32.8%4.70%	42.7%1.43%	51.0%0.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	83.3%0.32%	77.4%0.79%	77.5%0.74%	72.6%1.75%	62.9%8.14%	65.8%4.96%	80.0%0.68%	62.0%11.89%	64.8%7.30%	74.5%1.73%	67.2%4.70%		59.5%7.74%	72.6%1.54%
San Diego Chargers	76.9%0.11%	69.2%0.26%	69.6%0.29%	62.4%0.64%	53.5%2.93%	57.3%1.74%	72.0%0.16%	52.3%3.92%	55.2%2.37%	65.2%0.59%	57.3%1.43%	40.5%7.74%		65.8%0.41%
Seattle Seahawks	55.6%0.02%	55.1%0.05%	53.7%0.04%	44.0%0.10%	34.8%0.47%	39.2%0.29%	64.3%0.03%	37.7%0.62%	43.1%0.45%	46.1%0.08%	49.0%0.20%	27.4%1.54%	34.2%0.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		39.3%0.67%	23.7%3.45%	50.8%0.24%	47.5%0.29%	34.8%1.28%	47.4%0.51%	42.4%0.24%	50.0%0.15%	35.4%0.62%	60.0%0.03%	50.6%0.17%	50.0%0.41%	40.4%0.43%
Chicago Bears	60.7%0.67%		31.2%5.46%	63.1%0.33%	62.8%0.37%	42.6%3.13%	52.7%0.63%	55.5%0.76%	63.9%0.24%	49.1%1.06%	73.0%0.11%	59.9%0.31%	58.0%0.52%	48.1%0.74%
Dallas Cowboys	76.3%3.45%	68.8%5.46%		78.7%2.24%	76.2%2.73%	62.8%16.00%	74.0%4.17%	73.8%3.72%	76.4%1.50%	64.0%7.38%	82.8%0.56%	73.7%2.08%	73.6%3.93%	66.4%5.33%
Detroit Lions	49.2%0.24%	36.9%0.33%	21.3%2.24%		47.0%0.11%	32.1%1.36%	39.8%0.22%	45.3%0.27%	47.7%0.09%	35.1%0.36%	64.3%0.06%	47.6%0.12%	45.9%0.20%	35.6%0.25%
Green Bay Packers	52.5%0.29%	37.2%0.37%	23.8%2.73%	53.0%0.11%		32.3%1.56%	48.3%0.27%	44.9%0.30%	59.3%0.11%	34.2%0.48%	58.5%0.04%	44.4%0.14%	43.5%0.22%	38.3%0.29%
Los Angeles Rams	65.2%1.28%	57.4%3.13%	37.2%16.00%	67.9%1.36%	67.7%1.56%		61.8%2.42%	61.8%1.53%	67.8%0.68%	53.7%3.11%	76.9%0.16%	64.5%0.93%	65.3%2.20%	54.0%2.26%
Minnesota Vikings	52.6%0.51%	47.3%0.63%	26.0%4.17%	60.2%0.22%	51.7%0.27%	38.2%2.42%		49.5%0.56%	55.7%0.17%	40.1%0.83%	57.0%0.08%	55.3%0.23%	57.1%0.41%	45.6%0.56%
New Orleans Saints	57.6%0.24%	44.5%0.76%	26.2%3.72%	54.7%0.27%	55.1%0.30%	38.2%1.53%	50.5%0.56%		53.5%0.17%	42.4%0.66%	53.3%0.03%	55.6%0.24%	51.5%0.49%	43.9%0.50%
New York Giants	50.0%0.15%	36.1%0.24%	23.6%1.50%	52.3%0.09%	40.7%0.11%	32.2%0.68%	44.3%0.17%	46.5%0.17%		31.9%0.22%	52.0%0.03%	35.1%0.06%	46.6%0.12%	37.5%0.17%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.6%0.62%	50.9%1.06%	36.0%7.38%	64.9%0.36%	65.8%0.48%	46.3%3.11%	59.9%0.83%	57.6%0.66%	68.1%0.22%		67.5%0.12%	65.0%0.28%	63.8%0.70%	50.5%0.77%
San Francisco 49ers	40.0%0.03%	27.0%0.11%	17.2%0.56%	35.7%0.06%	41.5%0.04%	23.1%0.16%	43.0%0.08%	46.7%0.03%	48.0%0.03%	32.5%0.12%		42.9%0.03%	40.8%0.07%	30.6%0.08%
St. Louis Cardinals	49.4%0.17%	40.1%0.31%	26.3%2.08%	52.4%0.12%	55.6%0.14%	35.5%0.93%	44.7%0.23%	44.4%0.24%	64.9%0.06%	35.0%0.28%	57.1%0.03%		52.1%0.21%	39.1%0.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50.0%0.41%	42.0%0.52%	26.4%3.93%	54.1%0.20%	56.5%0.22%	34.7%2.20%	42.9%0.41%	48.5%0.49%	53.4%0.12%	36.2%0.70%	59.2%0.07%	47.9%0.21%		40.3%0.50%
Washington Redskins	59.6%0.43%	51.9%0.74%	33.6%5.33%	64.4%0.25%	61.7%0.29%	46.0%2.26%	54.4%0.56%	56.1%0.50%	62.5%0.17%	49.5%0.77%	69.4%0.08%	60.9%0.21%	59.7%0.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.03%	17.3%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	40.5%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	23.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	48.0%0.03%	42.0%0.05%	27.0%0.30%	54.5%0.01%	50.0%0.02%	32.9%0.15%	33.3%0.02%	54.5%0.03%	57.1%<0.01%	26.7%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.01%	58.3%0.02%	27.5%0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	53.8%0.03%	54.2%0.05%	32.2%0.31%	73.7%0.02%	70.0%0.02%	39.3%0.14%	45.5%0.03%	41.2%0.03%	50.0%0.01%	47.0%0.07%	33.3%<0.01%	70.0%0.01%	66.7%0.03%	46.5%0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	58.3%0.07%	55.5%0.12%	36.2%0.84%	56.8%0.04%	69.2%0.05%	42.2%0.40%	61.0%0.08%	55.8%0.08%	71.4%0.03%	47.0%0.13%	85.7%<0.01%	51.5%0.03%	57.1%0.08%	45.4%0.10%
Denver Broncos	68.5%0.28%	58.9%0.70%	42.9%4.48%	64.8%0.20%	72.6%0.25%	53.2%1.96%	66.7%0.49%	62.7%0.39%	62.8%0.14%	57.3%0.86%	65.9%0.04%	70.0%0.21%	63.7%0.38%	51.6%0.56%
Houston Oilers	68.9%0.17%	52.6%0.38%	39.4%2.50%	66.1%0.12%	63.1%0.18%	53.5%1.14%	64.9%0.28%	57.8%0.21%	60.5%0.08%	53.1%0.48%	84.0%0.03%	63.5%0.11%	66.2%0.22%	57.6%0.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	64.0%0.03%	55.3%0.04%	27.9%0.22%	53.3%0.01%	33.3%0.01%	41.0%0.10%	42.1%0.02%	61.5%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	48.6%0.04%	80.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	29.6%0.03%	34.5%0.03%
Miami Dolphins	67.1%0.43%	58.5%0.91%	43.1%5.92%	70.1%0.28%	68.2%0.34%	54.2%2.80%	64.3%0.60%	62.6%0.57%	72.7%0.19%	54.3%1.20%	87.1%0.06%	64.8%0.27%	67.1%0.55%	57.6%0.76%
New England Patriots	73.2%0.29%	56.4%0.58%	40.1%3.74%	72.1%0.17%	64.7%0.22%	51.4%1.67%	62.6%0.39%	68.3%0.31%	66.7%0.12%	50.0%0.72%	78.8%0.03%	63.7%0.17%	64.8%0.34%	54.7%0.49%
New York Jets	48.2%0.06%	42.7%0.11%	34.1%0.72%	63.3%0.03%	57.8%0.04%	40.7%0.33%	48.5%0.07%	51.6%0.06%	45.5%0.01%	51.1%0.13%	55.6%<0.01%	63.0%0.03%	47.9%0.05%	51.5%0.10%
Oakland Raiders	62.8%0.18%	48.9%0.33%	38.4%2.30%	64.1%0.10%	58.6%0.12%	50.4%1.03%	57.0%0.25%	57.1%0.18%	65.7%0.07%	47.3%0.47%	52.6%0.02%	59.3%0.11%	58.7%0.20%	52.3%0.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	76.8%0.97%	68.8%2.12%	53.9%13.68%	76.8%0.63%	76.4%0.77%	64.3%6.35%	73.4%1.41%	72.8%1.24%	79.2%0.39%	63.5%2.54%	84.6%0.12%	73.0%0.59%	76.9%1.20%	67.3%1.92%
San Diego Chargers	68.0%0.33%	59.5%0.75%	47.1%4.63%	72.0%0.21%	69.0%0.24%	56.1%2.14%	67.4%0.48%	65.5%0.44%	69.4%0.13%	59.2%0.90%	76.5%0.03%	68.8%0.20%	70.7%0.40%	58.1%0.61%
Seattle Seahawks	57.4%0.05%	51.1%0.09%	33.7%0.65%	78.8%0.03%	66.7%0.03%	43.7%0.27%	63.6%0.07%	62.5%0.05%	31.8%0.02%	48.2%0.11%	62.5%<0.01%	68.2%0.02%	45.1%0.05%	51.3%0.08%
Atlanta Falcons															66.7%<0.01%	52.0%0.03%	46.2%0.03%	41.7%0.07%	31.5%0.28%	31.1%0.17%	36.0%0.03%	32.9%0.43%	26.8%0.29%	51.8%0.06%	37.2%0.18%	23.2%0.97%	32.0%0.33%	42.6%0.05%
Chicago Bears															66.7%0.03%	58.0%0.05%	45.8%0.05%	44.5%0.12%	41.1%0.70%	47.4%0.38%	44.7%0.04%	41.5%0.91%	43.6%0.58%	57.3%0.11%	51.1%0.33%	31.2%2.12%	40.5%0.75%	48.9%0.09%
Dallas Cowboys															82.7%0.10%	73.0%0.30%	67.8%0.31%	63.8%0.84%	57.1%4.48%	60.6%2.50%	72.1%0.22%	56.9%5.92%	59.9%3.74%	65.9%0.72%	61.6%2.30%	46.1%13.68%	52.9%4.63%	66.3%0.65%
Detroit Lions															50.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.01%	26.3%0.02%	43.2%0.04%	35.2%0.20%	33.9%0.12%	46.7%0.01%	29.9%0.28%	27.9%0.17%	36.7%0.03%	35.9%0.10%	23.2%0.63%	28.0%0.21%	21.2%0.03%
Green Bay Packers															66.7%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	30.0%0.02%	30.8%0.05%	27.4%0.25%	36.9%0.18%	66.7%0.01%	31.8%0.34%	35.3%0.22%	42.2%0.04%	41.4%0.12%	23.6%0.77%	31.0%0.24%	33.3%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams															59.5%0.04%	67.1%0.15%	60.7%0.14%	57.8%0.40%	46.8%1.96%	46.5%1.14%	59.0%0.10%	45.8%2.80%	48.6%1.67%	59.3%0.33%	49.6%1.03%	35.7%6.35%	43.9%2.14%	56.3%0.27%
Minnesota Vikings															50.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%	54.5%0.03%	39.0%0.08%	33.3%0.49%	35.1%0.28%	57.9%0.02%	35.7%0.60%	37.4%0.39%	51.5%0.07%	43.0%0.25%	26.6%1.41%	32.6%0.48%	36.4%0.07%
New Orleans Saints															100.0%<0.01%	45.5%0.03%	58.8%0.03%	44.2%0.08%	37.3%0.39%	42.2%0.21%	38.5%0.03%	37.4%0.57%	31.7%0.31%	48.4%0.06%	42.9%0.18%	27.2%1.24%	34.5%0.44%	37.5%0.05%
New York Giants															50.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	28.6%0.03%	37.2%0.14%	39.5%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.19%	33.3%0.12%	54.5%0.01%	34.3%0.07%	20.8%0.39%	30.6%0.13%	68.2%0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles															76.5%0.02%	73.3%0.04%	53.0%0.07%	53.0%0.13%	42.7%0.86%	46.9%0.48%	51.4%0.04%	45.7%1.20%	50.0%0.72%	48.9%0.13%	52.7%0.47%	36.5%2.54%	40.8%0.90%	51.8%0.11%
San Francisco 49ers															0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	34.1%0.04%	16.0%0.03%	20.0%<0.01%	12.9%0.06%	21.2%0.03%	44.4%<0.01%	47.4%0.02%	15.4%0.12%	23.5%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals															0.0%<0.01%	54.5%0.01%	30.0%0.01%	48.5%0.03%	30.0%0.21%	36.5%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%	35.2%0.27%	36.3%0.17%	37.0%0.03%	40.7%0.11%	27.0%0.59%	31.2%0.20%	31.8%0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															75.0%<0.01%	41.7%0.02%	33.3%0.03%	42.9%0.08%	36.3%0.38%	33.8%0.22%	70.4%0.03%	32.9%0.55%	35.2%0.34%	52.1%0.05%	41.3%0.20%	23.1%1.20%	29.3%0.40%	54.9%0.05%
Washington Redskins															72.7%0.01%	72.5%0.04%	53.5%0.04%	54.6%0.10%	48.4%0.56%	42.4%0.31%	65.5%0.03%	42.4%0.76%	45.3%0.49%	48.5%0.10%	47.7%0.30%	32.7%1.92%	41.9%0.61%	48.7%0.08%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	70.71%	51.99%	26.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	68.48%	38.70%	23.28%	Won Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	62.89%	34.02%	17.84%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	39.54%	19.19%	7.93%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	100.00%	34.44%	15.16%	7.75%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	63.28%	34.51%	11.62%	4.77%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	100.00%	45.20%	12.75%	3.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Houston Oilers	56.56%	20.38%	6.60%	3.15%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	43.44%	13.81%	5.53%	2.78%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Chicago Bears	36.72%	10.05%	4.44%	1.74%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers
Denver Broncos		43.4%100.00%
Houston Oilers	56.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears		36.7%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	63.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos				31.8%43.44%
Houston Oilers					36.0%56.56%
Miami Dolphins				31.3%56.56%	38.5%43.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.2%43.44%		68.7%56.56%
San Diego Chargers		64.0%56.56%	61.5%43.44%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears		27.4%36.72%
Dallas Cowboys	72.6%36.72%		69.6%63.28%
Los Angeles Rams		30.4%63.28%			55.3%36.72%
Philadelphia Eagles					54.5%63.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			44.7%36.72%	45.5%63.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos			41.4%5.37%		39.1%8.43%
Houston Oilers			38.3%6.48%	29.6%13.90%
Miami Dolphins	58.6%5.37%	61.7%6.48%		32.1%11.35%	38.8%11.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers		70.4%13.90%	67.9%11.35%		49.1%43.23%
San Diego Chargers	60.9%8.43%		61.2%11.23%	50.9%43.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears			37.9%5.56%		51.9%4.48%
Dallas Cowboys			68.9%14.74%	68.9%24.12%	79.1%31.86%
Los Angeles Rams	62.1%5.56%	31.1%14.74%		60.2%10.39%	55.4%8.85%
Philadelphia Eagles		31.1%24.12%	39.8%10.39%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48.1%4.48%	20.9%31.86%	44.6%8.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos	59.4%0.26%	43.1%2.91%	55.1%1.04%	52.4%0.61%	68.2%0.70%
Houston Oilers	53.2%0.28%	40.5%3.42%	52.1%1.32%	50.8%0.78%	66.0%0.81%
Miami Dolphins	57.8%0.68%	44.1%7.94%	55.7%2.85%	55.7%1.72%	66.9%1.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.9%1.72%	53.8%20.06%	64.0%7.39%	64.6%4.57%	74.3%4.96%
San Diego Chargers	57.8%1.50%	45.8%17.66%	55.9%6.60%	56.6%3.93%	68.8%4.32%
Chicago Bears						40.6%0.26%	46.8%0.28%	42.2%0.68%	34.1%1.72%	42.2%1.50%
Dallas Cowboys						56.9%2.91%	59.5%3.42%	55.9%7.94%	46.2%20.06%	54.2%17.66%
Los Angeles Rams						44.9%1.04%	47.9%1.32%	44.3%2.85%	36.0%7.39%	44.1%6.60%
Philadelphia Eagles						47.6%0.61%	49.2%0.78%	44.3%1.72%	35.4%4.57%	43.4%3.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						31.8%0.70%	34.0%0.81%	33.1%1.97%	25.7%4.96%	31.2%4.32%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 26.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

62.28%

Win Prob

69.59%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

48.48%

Win Prob

79.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.49%

Win Prob

54.21%

Pittsburgh Steelers 23.28% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

56.73%

Win Prob

68.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

54.83%

Win Prob

49.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

46.34%

Win Prob

53.76%

San Diego Chargers 17.84% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

57.52%

Win Prob

63.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

64.72%

Win Prob

50.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

45.34%

Win Prob

45.79%

Los Angeles Rams 7.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

51.34%

Win Prob

55.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

32.59%

Win Prob

60.20%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

36.76%

Win Prob

44.15%

Miami Dolphins 7.75% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

51.44%

Win Prob

31.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

28.75%

Win Prob

38.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

45.17%

Win Prob

44.11%

Philadelphia Eagles 4.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.28%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

64.43%

Win Prob

31.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.79%

Win Prob

43.38%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

63.67%

Win Prob

45.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

52.14%

Win Prob

20.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.71%

Win Prob

31.23%

Houston Oilers 3.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

62.40%

Win Prob

29.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

43.92%

Win Prob

40.53%

Denver Broncos 2.78% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

59.73%

Win Prob

39.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

45.06%

Win Prob

43.14%

Chicago Bears 1.74% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.72%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

52.45%

Win Prob

51.94%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

36.35%

Win Prob

42.18%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1979-09-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-34	1474.29	1466.39	42.06%	57.70%	+6.56	1-0
1979-09-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-10	1480.85	1511.58	36.76%	63.01%	+5.84	2-0
1979-09-16	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1486.69	1560.86	48.23%	51.52%	-3.87	2-1
1979-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-24	1482.82	1464.11	43.58%	56.17%	-2.03	2-2
1979-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 7-16	1480.79	1504.14	55.51%	44.24%	-7.73	2-3
1979-10-07	Green Bay Packers	W 25-7	1473.06	1466.47	59.72%	40.04%	+7.89	3-3
1979-10-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 19-50	1480.95	1529.29	34.44%	65.33%	-8.90	3-4
1979-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 15-20	1472.05	1385.32	53.32%	46.42%	-5.54	3-5
1979-10-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 28-31	1466.51	1476.44	57.41%	42.34%	-4.61	3-6
1979-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1461.90	1461.50	58.86%	40.90%	+3.29	4-6
1979-11-11	@ New York Giants	L 3-24	1465.19	1445.33	43.74%	56.01%	-9.31	4-7
1979-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1455.88	1542.92	29.60%	70.18%	-3.36	4-8
1979-11-25	New Orleans Saints	L 6-37	1452.52	1470.60	56.26%	43.49%	-14.54	4-9
1979-12-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-26	1437.98	1583.06	23.15%	76.66%	+5.03	5-9
1979-12-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-34	1443.01	1553.73	43.01%	56.74%	-9.16	5-10
1979-12-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-21	1433.85	1379.51	66.11%	33.66%	+4.95	6-10
1979-09-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-14	1432.92	1435.66	40.57%	59.18%	-7.05	0-1
1979-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 26-29	1425.87	1437.40	57.19%	42.57%	-4.59	0-2
1979-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1421.28	1494.64	31.27%	68.51%	-2.52	0-3
1979-09-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1418.76	1643.07	16.04%	83.81%	-1.49	0-4
1979-09-30	Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1417.27	1455.24	53.43%	46.32%	-10.52	0-5
1979-10-07	New York Jets	W 10-8	1406.75	1472.45	49.44%	50.30%	+3.30	1-5
1979-10-14	Houston Oilers	L 16-28	1410.05	1536.66	40.79%	58.97%	-6.56	1-6
1979-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-13	1403.49	1454.95	34.03%	65.74%	+3.05	2-6
1979-10-28	New England Patriots	W 31-26	1406.54	1569.41	35.86%	63.90%	+6.63	3-6
1979-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-28	1413.17	1481.68	49.04%	50.71%	+7.44	4-6
1979-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-19	1420.61	1567.50	22.97%	76.85%	-4.64	4-7
1979-11-18	@ New England Patriots	L 21-50	1415.97	1560.47	23.21%	76.60%	-5.81	4-8
1979-11-25	Miami Dolphins	L 24-28	1410.16	1566.35	36.75%	63.01%	-3.41	4-9
1979-12-02	@ New York Jets	L 17-30	1406.75	1465.62	33.08%	66.69%	-5.54	4-10
1979-12-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-10	1401.21	1442.95	52.89%	46.86%	-4.25	4-11
1979-12-16	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1396.96	1441.73	34.90%	64.87%	+14.74	5-11
1979-09-02	Miami Dolphins	L 7-9	1442.10	1563.84	41.47%	58.29%	-2.73	0-1
1979-09-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 51-24	1439.37	1487.81	51.93%	47.82%	+11.54	1-1
1979-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 19-27	1450.91	1549.81	28.20%	71.59%	-3.71	1-2
1979-09-23	New York Jets	W 46-31	1447.20	1473.91	55.04%	44.71%	+8.04	2-2
1979-09-30	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-13	1455.24	1417.27	46.32%	53.43%	+10.52	3-2
1979-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 0-7	1465.76	1484.41	56.18%	43.57%	-6.89	3-3
1979-10-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1458.87	1570.85	26.70%	73.09%	-3.92	3-4
1979-10-21	Baltimore Colts	L 13-14	1454.95	1403.49	65.74%	34.03%	-3.05	3-5
1979-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1451.90	1446.91	41.65%	58.11%	+4.67	4-5
1979-11-04	New England Patriots	L 6-26	1456.57	1562.78	43.65%	56.10%	-9.07	4-6
1979-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 14-12	1447.50	1484.41	35.94%	63.83%	+4.19	5-6
1979-11-18	Green Bay Packers	W 19-12	1451.69	1451.43	58.84%	40.92%	+5.03	6-6
1979-11-25	@ New England Patriots	W 16-13	1456.72	1566.28	26.98%	72.82%	+5.85	7-6
1979-12-02	Denver Broncos	L 16-19	1462.57	1578.47	42.28%	57.47%	-3.40	7-7
1979-12-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1459.17	1467.62	39.78%	59.97%	-4.89	7-8
1979-12-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-28	1454.28	1648.81	18.48%	81.36%	-4.54	7-9
1979-09-02	Green Bay Packers	W 6-3	1485.99	1468.67	61.19%	38.57%	+3.10	1-0
1979-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1489.09	1504.39	56.65%	43.10%	+8.72	2-0
1979-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-24	1497.81	1639.67	23.48%	76.33%	-2.18	2-1
1979-09-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-31	1495.63	1579.21	30.02%	69.77%	-5.40	2-2
1979-09-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-17	1490.23	1461.78	62.70%	37.06%	-5.82	2-3
1979-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 7-0	1484.41	1465.76	43.57%	56.18%	+6.90	3-3
1979-10-14	New England Patriots	L 7-27	1491.31	1551.29	50.27%	49.48%	-10.43	3-4
1979-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-30	1480.88	1483.09	40.65%	59.11%	-3.27	3-5
1979-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-27	1477.61	1390.85	53.33%	46.42%	+2.15	4-5
1979-11-04	Detroit Lions	W 35-7	1479.76	1442.24	63.91%	35.85%	+8.81	5-5
1979-11-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-23	1488.57	1547.50	50.42%	49.33%	+4.58	6-5
1979-11-18	New York Jets	W 23-13	1493.15	1480.23	60.59%	39.17%	+5.75	7-5
1979-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1498.90	1425.34	51.44%	48.31%	-10.67	7-6
1979-12-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-0	1488.23	1468.90	43.67%	56.09%	+9.74	8-6
1979-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 15-14	1497.97	1433.04	50.19%	49.55%	+2.30	9-6
1979-12-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-6	1500.27	1470.53	62.87%	36.89%	+10.28	10-6
1979-09-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-10	1492.48	1561.84	31.76%	68.02%	-4.67	0-1
1979-09-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-51	1487.81	1439.37	47.82%	51.93%	-11.53	0-2
1979-09-16	New England Patriots	L 14-20	1476.28	1546.64	48.77%	50.97%	-5.55	0-3
1979-09-23	Houston Oilers	L 27-30	1470.73	1533.14	49.92%	49.83%	-4.01	0-4
1979-09-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-38	1466.72	1629.43	21.40%	78.43%	-4.97	0-5
1979-10-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-10	1461.75	1459.01	59.18%	40.57%	-4.75	0-6
1979-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-10	1457.00	1647.11	32.35%	67.43%	+15.32	1-6
1979-10-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-28	1472.32	1489.08	38.64%	61.12%	-1.80	1-7
1979-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-13	1470.52	1527.53	50.70%	49.05%	+11.16	2-7
1979-11-04	@ Baltimore Colts	L 28-38	1481.68	1413.17	50.71%	49.04%	-7.44	2-8
1979-11-11	San Diego Chargers	L 24-26	1474.24	1561.54	46.34%	53.41%	-3.05	2-9
1979-11-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-42	1471.19	1547.54	30.90%	68.88%	-6.57	2-10
1979-11-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-28	1464.62	1467.53	58.39%	41.36%	+4.70	3-10
1979-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-37	1469.32	1649.11	19.79%	80.04%	-4.11	3-11
1979-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1465.21	1517.26	33.96%	65.81%	-5.90	3-12
1979-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-12	1459.31	1507.73	51.93%	47.82%	+4.44	4-12
1979-09-02	@ New York Jets	W 25-22	1485.79	1480.79	41.65%	58.10%	+4.67	1-0
1979-09-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1490.46	1442.71	47.72%	52.03%	+4.18	2-0
1979-09-16	Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1494.64	1421.28	68.51%	31.27%	+2.51	3-0
1979-09-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-7	1497.15	1641.86	38.30%	61.46%	+12.43	4-0
1979-09-30	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-31	1509.58	1537.16	37.18%	62.58%	-7.91	4-1
1979-10-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 35-51	1501.67	1639.83	39.19%	60.56%	-7.28	4-2
1979-10-14	Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1494.39	1505.80	57.20%	42.55%	-5.31	4-3
1979-10-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-27	1489.08	1472.32	61.12%	38.64%	+1.80	5-3
1979-10-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-20	1490.88	1472.59	43.52%	56.23%	+11.07	6-3
1979-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-19	1501.95	1516.37	38.96%	60.80%	+6.30	7-3
1979-11-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-29	1508.25	1469.46	64.08%	35.69%	-6.64	7-4
1979-11-18	Miami Dolphins	W 30-24	1501.61	1572.15	48.75%	51.00%	+5.80	8-4
1979-11-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 30-33	1507.41	1647.20	23.69%	76.12%	-1.91	8-5
1979-12-02	Houston Oilers	W 14-7	1505.50	1561.87	50.79%	48.96%	+6.01	9-5
1979-12-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-19	1511.51	1544.58	36.45%	63.32%	-3.78	9-6
1979-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-16	1507.73	1459.31	47.82%	51.93%	-4.44	9-7
1979-09-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 22-21	1634.13	1482.66	62.38%	37.39%	+1.74	1-0
1979-09-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-13	1635.87	1418.00	70.83%	28.96%	+3.80	2-0
1979-09-16	Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1639.67	1497.81	76.33%	23.48%	+2.19	3-0
1979-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-26	1641.86	1497.15	61.46%	38.30%	-12.43	3-1
1979-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-13	1629.43	1466.72	78.43%	21.40%	+4.96	4-1
1979-10-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 36-20	1634.39	1495.72	60.63%	39.12%	+7.27	5-1
1979-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-6	1641.66	1564.62	68.97%	30.81%	+7.01	6-1
1979-10-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 22-13	1648.67	1475.43	79.43%	20.40%	+2.84	7-1
1979-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1651.51	1640.73	42.46%	57.29%	-6.54	7-2
1979-11-04	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1644.97	1447.40	68.36%	31.42%	+2.07	8-2
1979-11-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-31	1647.04	1510.07	75.82%	23.99%	-11.12	8-3
1979-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-34	1635.92	1507.71	59.19%	40.57%	-10.28	8-4
1979-11-22	Houston Oilers	L 24-30	1625.64	1554.12	68.29%	31.49%	-7.76	8-5
1979-12-02	New York Giants	W 28-7	1617.88	1451.57	78.77%	21.05%	+4.48	9-5
1979-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1622.36	1539.37	52.79%	46.96%	+5.77	10-5
1979-12-16	Washington Redskins	W 35-34	1628.13	1523.16	72.29%	27.50%	+1.28	11-5
1979-09-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-0	1561.84	1492.48	68.02%	31.76%	+4.67	1-0
1979-09-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 9-13	1566.51	1551.62	60.86%	38.90%	-5.65	1-1
1979-09-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1560.86	1486.69	51.52%	48.23%	+3.88	2-1
1979-09-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-34	1564.74	1477.17	70.25%	29.54%	+2.38	3-1
1979-09-30	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-27	1567.12	1510.99	48.93%	50.82%	-11.13	3-2
1979-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 7-0	1555.99	1553.90	59.09%	40.66%	+5.00	4-2
1979-10-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-10	1560.99	1463.76	54.82%	44.93%	+7.80	5-2
1979-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-42	1568.79	1631.78	32.56%	67.21%	-8.95	5-3
1979-10-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-3	1559.84	1450.22	72.83%	26.97%	+5.17	6-3
1979-11-04	New Orleans Saints	W 10-3	1565.01	1476.83	70.32%	29.47%	+3.62	7-3
1979-11-11	New England Patriots	W 45-10	1568.63	1571.85	58.35%	41.40%	+11.37	8-3
1979-11-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-28	1580.00	1380.42	68.61%	31.17%	+4.58	9-3
1979-11-25	Oakland Raiders	L 10-14	1584.58	1532.18	65.86%	33.91%	-6.11	9-4
1979-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-16	1578.47	1462.57	57.47%	42.28%	+3.40	10-4
1979-12-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-28	1581.87	1482.97	55.06%	44.69%	-5.72	10-5
1979-12-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-17	1576.15	1590.29	39.00%	60.76%	-5.72	10-6
1979-09-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-31	1486.59	1428.56	49.20%	50.55%	-8.85	0-1
1979-09-09	Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1477.74	1482.64	58.12%	41.64%	-4.67	0-2
1979-09-16	@ New York Jets	L 10-31	1473.07	1464.96	42.09%	57.67%	-8.96	0-3
1979-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-23	1464.11	1482.82	56.17%	43.58%	+2.03	1-3
1979-09-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-13	1466.14	1491.28	55.26%	44.49%	-4.44	1-4
1979-10-07	@ New England Patriots	L 17-24	1461.70	1547.63	29.73%	70.05%	-3.66	1-5
1979-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-24	1458.04	1458.58	40.88%	58.88%	-5.37	1-6
1979-10-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-17	1452.67	1465.03	39.25%	60.51%	-5.76	1-7
1979-10-28	Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1446.91	1451.90	58.11%	41.65%	-4.67	1-8
1979-11-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-35	1442.24	1479.76	35.85%	63.91%	-8.81	1-9
1979-11-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-16	1433.43	1458.21	55.31%	44.44%	-3.63	1-10
1979-11-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1429.80	1463.89	36.31%	63.45%	-4.46	1-11
1979-11-22	Chicago Bears	W 20-0	1425.34	1498.90	48.31%	51.44%	+10.68	2-11
1979-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-44	1436.02	1531.28	28.63%	71.16%	-8.09	2-12
1979-12-09	Miami Dolphins	L 10-28	1427.93	1576.89	37.72%	62.04%	-7.43	2-13
1979-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 13-18	1420.50	1430.74	57.37%	42.39%	-5.96	2-14
1979-09-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-6	1468.67	1485.99	38.57%	61.19%	-3.10	0-1
1979-09-09	New Orleans Saints	W 28-19	1465.57	1459.83	59.60%	40.16%	+5.60	1-1
1979-09-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-21	1471.17	1442.00	62.80%	36.97%	-9.67	1-2
1979-09-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-27	1461.50	1487.02	37.46%	62.30%	-4.26	1-3
1979-10-01	New England Patriots	W 27-14	1457.24	1556.86	44.58%	55.17%	+9.23	2-3
1979-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-25	1466.47	1473.06	40.04%	59.72%	-7.89	2-4
1979-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 24-16	1458.58	1458.04	58.88%	40.88%	+5.37	3-4
1979-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-21	1463.95	1448.89	43.06%	56.69%	-8.48	3-5
1979-10-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1455.47	1567.08	26.75%	73.05%	-5.55	3-6
1979-11-04	New York Jets	L 22-27	1449.92	1478.73	54.74%	45.01%	-5.68	3-7
1979-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 19-7	1444.24	1471.08	55.02%	44.73%	+7.19	4-7
1979-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-19	1451.43	1451.69	40.92%	58.84%	-5.03	4-8
1979-11-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-21	1446.40	1523.93	47.74%	52.00%	-7.35	4-9
1979-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-38	1439.05	1511.24	31.41%	68.37%	-6.01	4-10
1979-12-09	Chicago Bears	L 14-15	1433.04	1497.97	49.55%	50.19%	-2.30	4-11
1979-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 18-13	1430.74	1420.50	42.39%	57.37%	+5.95	5-11
1979-09-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 29-27	1531.96	1486.07	47.46%	52.29%	+3.43	1-0
1979-09-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-38	1535.39	1632.71	28.39%	71.40%	-7.34	1-1
1979-09-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1528.05	1438.53	70.48%	29.31%	+5.09	2-1
1979-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1533.14	1470.73	49.83%	49.92%	+4.02	3-1
1979-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-10	1537.16	1509.58	62.58%	37.18%	+7.91	4-1
1979-10-07	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1545.07	1471.84	68.50%	31.28%	-8.41	4-2
1979-10-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 28-16	1536.66	1410.05	58.97%	40.79%	+6.56	5-2
1979-10-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-34	1543.22	1465.65	52.01%	47.74%	-10.79	5-3
1979-10-28	New York Jets	W 27-24	1532.43	1481.48	65.67%	34.10%	+2.74	6-3
1979-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 9-6	1535.17	1572.63	35.86%	63.90%	+5.14	7-3
1979-11-11	Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1540.31	1545.22	58.12%	41.64%	+7.23	8-3
1979-11-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-21	1547.54	1471.19	68.88%	30.90%	+6.58	9-3
1979-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1554.12	1625.64	31.49%	68.29%	+7.75	10-3
1979-12-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-14	1561.87	1505.50	48.96%	50.79%	-6.01	10-4
1979-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1555.86	1653.22	44.91%	54.84%	+4.41	11-4
1979-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-26	1560.27	1533.60	62.46%	37.30%	-7.10	11-5
1979-09-02	Baltimore Colts	W 14-0	1435.66	1432.92	59.18%	40.57%	+7.05	1-0
1979-09-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1442.71	1490.46	52.03%	47.72%	-4.18	1-1
1979-09-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-20	1438.53	1528.05	29.31%	70.48%	-5.09	1-2
1979-09-23	Oakland Raiders	W 35-7	1433.44	1524.23	45.84%	53.91%	+13.24	2-2
1979-09-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-6	1446.68	1474.79	37.11%	62.66%	+12.33	3-2
1979-10-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-7	1459.01	1461.75	40.57%	59.18%	+4.75	4-2
1979-10-14	Denver Broncos	L 10-24	1463.76	1560.99	44.93%	54.82%	-7.80	4-3
1979-10-21	New York Giants	L 17-21	1455.96	1433.44	61.90%	37.86%	-5.74	4-4
1979-10-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-20	1450.22	1559.84	26.97%	72.83%	-5.17	4-5
1979-11-04	San Diego Chargers	L 14-20	1445.05	1556.66	42.89%	56.86%	-4.88	4-6
1979-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-30	1440.17	1653.50	29.50%	70.29%	-7.11	4-7
1979-11-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1433.06	1537.98	27.51%	72.29%	+5.80	5-7
1979-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-28	1438.86	1578.00	23.76%	76.05%	-5.05	5-8
1979-12-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-21	1433.81	1492.11	50.51%	49.24%	+9.14	6-8
1979-12-09	@ Baltimore Colts	W 10-7	1442.95	1401.21	46.86%	52.89%	+4.25	7-8
1979-12-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-3	1447.20	1449.19	40.68%	59.08%	-3.27	7-9
1979-09-02	Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1559.25	1534.78	62.16%	37.60%	-7.63	0-1
1979-09-06	@ Denver Broncos	W 13-9	1551.62	1566.51	38.90%	60.86%	+5.64	1-1
1979-09-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1557.26	1414.20	76.46%	23.36%	+1.88	2-1
1979-09-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-21	1559.14	1451.66	56.28%	43.47%	-10.11	2-2
1979-09-30	St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-0	1549.03	1478.57	68.15%	31.63%	+6.73	3-2
1979-10-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-17	1555.76	1458.99	54.76%	44.99%	+8.86	4-2
1979-10-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-30	1564.62	1641.66	30.81%	68.97%	-7.01	4-3
1979-10-21	San Diego Chargers	L 16-40	1557.61	1553.40	59.39%	40.37%	-13.50	4-4
1979-10-28	New York Giants	L 14-20	1544.11	1439.18	72.29%	27.51%	-8.21	4-5
1979-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-0	1535.90	1481.06	48.74%	51.01%	+11.60	5-5
1979-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-27	1547.50	1488.57	49.33%	50.42%	-4.58	5-6
1979-11-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-14	1542.92	1455.88	70.18%	29.60%	+3.36	6-6
1979-11-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-20	1546.28	1375.84	64.90%	34.87%	+3.97	7-6
1979-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-21	1550.25	1471.10	69.23%	30.56%	+3.48	8-6
1979-12-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-13	1553.73	1443.01	56.74%	43.01%	+9.15	9-6
1979-12-16	New Orleans Saints	L 14-29	1562.88	1466.58	71.28%	28.50%	-12.81	9-7
1979-09-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 9-7	1563.84	1442.10	58.29%	41.47%	+2.72	1-0
1979-09-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-10	1566.56	1471.52	71.14%	28.65%	+3.99	2-0
1979-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-12	1570.55	1495.67	51.63%	48.12%	+8.66	3-0
1979-09-23	Chicago Bears	W 31-16	1579.21	1495.63	69.77%	30.02%	+5.39	4-0
1979-09-30	@ New York Jets	L 27-33	1584.60	1465.87	57.87%	41.89%	-6.57	4-1
1979-10-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-13	1578.03	1522.12	48.90%	50.85%	-7.18	4-2
1979-10-14	Buffalo Bills	W 17-7	1570.85	1458.87	73.09%	26.70%	+3.92	5-2
1979-10-21	@ New England Patriots	L 13-28	1574.77	1561.72	42.78%	56.97%	-7.69	5-3
1979-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1567.08	1455.47	73.05%	26.75%	+5.55	6-3
1979-11-05	Houston Oilers	L 6-9	1572.63	1535.17	63.90%	35.86%	-5.13	6-4
1979-11-11	Baltimore Colts	W 19-0	1567.50	1420.61	76.85%	22.97%	+4.65	7-4
1979-11-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-30	1572.15	1501.61	51.00%	48.75%	-5.80	7-5
1979-11-25	@ Baltimore Colts	W 28-24	1566.35	1410.16	63.01%	36.75%	+3.41	8-5
1979-11-29	New England Patriots	W 39-24	1569.76	1560.43	60.10%	39.66%	+7.13	9-5
1979-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1576.89	1427.93	62.04%	37.72%	+7.44	10-5
1979-12-15	New York Jets	L 24-27	1584.33	1473.61	72.95%	26.85%	-5.86	10-6
1979-09-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-22	1500.92	1421.47	69.26%	30.52%	+3.47	1-0
1979-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-26	1504.39	1489.09	43.10%	56.65%	-8.72	1-1
1979-09-16	Miami Dolphins	L 12-27	1495.67	1570.55	48.12%	51.63%	-8.65	1-2
1979-09-23	Green Bay Packers	W 27-21	1487.02	1461.50	62.30%	37.46%	+4.26	2-2
1979-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-10	1491.28	1466.14	44.49%	55.26%	+4.44	3-2
1979-10-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-36	1495.72	1634.39	39.12%	60.63%	-7.27	3-3
1979-10-15	@ New York Jets	L 7-14	1488.45	1469.15	43.66%	56.09%	-5.36	3-4
1979-10-21	Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1483.09	1480.88	59.11%	40.65%	+3.27	4-4
1979-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-12	1486.36	1457.38	62.77%	36.99%	-4.12	4-5
1979-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-37	1482.24	1461.52	43.86%	55.89%	-11.16	4-6
1979-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1471.08	1444.24	44.73%	55.02%	-7.19	4-7
1979-11-18	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1463.89	1429.80	63.45%	36.31%	+4.46	5-7
1979-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-22	1468.35	1471.65	40.49%	59.26%	+2.75	6-7
1979-12-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1471.10	1550.25	30.56%	69.23%	-3.48	6-8
1979-12-09	Buffalo Bills	W 10-3	1467.62	1459.17	59.97%	39.78%	+4.89	7-8
1979-12-16	@ New England Patriots	L 23-27	1472.51	1550.85	30.65%	69.13%	-2.85	7-9
1979-09-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1539.17	1629.01	45.98%	53.77%	-3.70	0-1
1979-09-09	New York Jets	W 56-3	1535.47	1476.12	66.75%	33.02%	+11.17	1-1
1979-09-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1546.64	1476.28	50.97%	48.77%	+5.54	2-1
1979-09-23	San Diego Chargers	W 27-21	1552.18	1553.52	58.62%	41.14%	+4.68	3-1
1979-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1556.86	1457.24	55.17%	44.58%	-9.23	3-2
1979-10-07	Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1547.63	1461.70	70.05%	29.73%	+3.66	4-2
1979-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-7	1551.29	1491.31	49.48%	50.27%	+10.43	5-2
1979-10-21	Miami Dolphins	W 28-13	1561.72	1574.77	56.97%	42.78%	+7.69	6-2
1979-10-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 26-31	1569.41	1406.54	63.90%	35.86%	-6.63	6-3
1979-11-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-6	1562.78	1456.57	56.10%	43.65%	+9.07	7-3
1979-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-45	1571.85	1568.63	41.40%	58.35%	-11.38	7-4
1979-11-18	Baltimore Colts	W 50-21	1560.47	1415.97	76.60%	23.21%	+5.81	8-4
1979-11-25	Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1566.28	1456.72	72.82%	26.98%	-5.85	8-5
1979-11-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-39	1560.43	1569.76	39.66%	60.10%	-7.13	8-6
1979-12-09	@ New York Jets	L 26-27	1553.30	1471.16	52.67%	47.08%	-2.45	8-7
1979-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-23	1550.85	1472.51	69.13%	30.65%	+2.85	9-7
1979-09-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 34-40	1466.39	1474.29	57.70%	42.06%	-6.56	0-1
1979-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-28	1459.83	1465.57	40.16%	59.60%	-5.60	0-2
1979-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-26	1454.23	1505.74	51.49%	48.26%	-8.27	0-3
1979-09-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-21	1445.96	1412.32	45.70%	54.05%	+7.52	1-3
1979-09-30	New York Giants	W 24-14	1453.48	1428.42	62.24%	37.52%	+5.51	2-3
1979-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-35	1458.99	1555.76	44.99%	54.76%	-8.86	2-4
1979-10-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-14	1450.13	1463.79	39.07%	60.69%	+14.90	3-4
1979-10-21	Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1465.03	1452.67	60.51%	39.25%	+5.76	4-4
1979-10-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1470.79	1517.60	34.64%	65.13%	+6.04	5-4
1979-11-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-10	1476.83	1565.01	29.47%	70.32%	-3.62	5-5
1979-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-20	1473.21	1384.95	70.33%	29.46%	+4.54	6-5
1979-11-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-38	1477.75	1476.10	41.18%	58.57%	-7.15	6-6
1979-11-25	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-6	1470.60	1452.52	43.49%	56.26%	+14.53	7-6
1979-12-03	Oakland Raiders	L 35-42	1485.13	1538.29	51.25%	48.50%	-6.29	7-7
1979-12-09	San Diego Chargers	L 0-35	1478.84	1578.03	44.65%	55.10%	-12.26	7-8
1979-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 29-14	1466.58	1562.88	28.50%	71.28%	+12.80	8-8
1979-09-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1454.14	1507.74	33.76%	66.01%	-3.84	0-1
1979-09-09	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-27	1450.30	1480.93	54.48%	45.27%	-9.12	0-2
1979-09-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-27	1441.18	1487.31	34.72%	65.04%	-8.38	0-3
1979-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-17	1432.80	1514.02	47.21%	52.53%	-4.38	0-4
1979-09-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-24	1428.42	1453.48	37.52%	62.24%	-5.51	0-5
1979-10-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1422.91	1467.60	52.47%	47.28%	+3.80	1-5
1979-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 32-16	1426.71	1392.05	63.53%	36.23%	+6.73	2-5
1979-10-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1433.44	1455.96	37.86%	61.90%	+5.74	3-5
1979-10-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1439.18	1544.11	27.51%	72.29%	+8.22	4-5
1979-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-16	1447.40	1644.97	31.42%	68.36%	-2.07	4-6
1979-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-3	1445.33	1465.19	56.01%	43.74%	+9.31	5-6
1979-11-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-31	1454.64	1461.84	39.96%	59.80%	-9.82	5-7
1979-11-25	Washington Redskins	W 14-6	1444.82	1517.99	48.37%	51.38%	+6.75	6-7
1979-12-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1451.57	1617.88	21.05%	78.77%	-4.48	6-8
1979-12-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-29	1447.09	1465.17	38.46%	61.30%	-5.36	6-9
1979-12-16	Baltimore Colts	L 7-31	1441.73	1396.96	64.87%	34.90%	-14.74	6-10
1979-09-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 22-25	1480.79	1485.79	58.10%	41.65%	-4.67	0-1
1979-09-09	@ New England Patriots	L 3-56	1476.12	1535.47	33.02%	66.75%	-11.16	0-2
1979-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 31-10	1464.96	1473.07	57.67%	42.09%	+8.95	1-2
1979-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-46	1473.91	1447.20	44.71%	55.04%	-8.04	1-3
1979-09-30	Miami Dolphins	W 33-27	1465.87	1584.60	41.89%	57.87%	+6.58	2-3
1979-10-07	@ Baltimore Colts	L 8-10	1472.45	1406.75	50.30%	49.44%	-3.30	2-4
1979-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-7	1469.15	1488.45	56.09%	43.66%	+5.36	3-4
1979-10-21	Oakland Raiders	W 28-19	1474.51	1538.20	49.73%	50.01%	+6.97	4-4
1979-10-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-27	1481.48	1532.43	34.10%	65.67%	-2.75	4-5
1979-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-22	1478.73	1449.92	45.01%	54.74%	+5.68	5-5
1979-11-11	Buffalo Bills	L 12-14	1484.41	1447.50	63.83%	35.94%	-4.18	5-6
1979-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-23	1480.23	1493.15	39.17%	60.59%	-5.76	5-7
1979-11-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-30	1474.47	1483.26	39.74%	60.02%	-8.85	5-8
1979-12-02	Baltimore Colts	W 30-17	1465.62	1406.75	66.69%	33.08%	+5.54	6-8
1979-12-09	New England Patriots	W 27-26	1471.16	1553.30	47.08%	52.67%	+2.45	7-8
1979-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1473.61	1584.33	26.85%	72.95%	+5.86	8-8
1979-09-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1534.78	1559.25	37.60%	62.16%	+7.63	1-0
1979-09-09	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-30	1542.41	1541.27	41.11%	58.64%	-8.54	1-1
1979-09-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-27	1533.87	1467.53	50.40%	49.35%	-9.64	1-2
1979-09-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-35	1524.23	1433.44	53.91%	45.84%	-13.24	1-3
1979-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 27-3	1510.99	1567.12	50.82%	48.93%	+11.13	2-3
1979-10-08	Miami Dolphins	W 13-3	1522.12	1578.03	50.85%	48.90%	+7.17	3-3
1979-10-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 50-19	1529.29	1480.95	65.33%	34.44%	+8.91	4-3
1979-10-21	@ New York Jets	L 19-28	1538.20	1474.51	50.01%	49.73%	-6.97	4-4
1979-10-25	San Diego Chargers	W 45-22	1531.23	1566.90	53.76%	45.99%	+10.24	5-4
1979-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-10	1541.47	1388.70	77.44%	22.37%	+3.75	6-4
1979-11-11	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-31	1545.22	1540.31	41.64%	58.12%	-7.24	6-5
1979-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1537.98	1433.06	72.29%	27.51%	-5.80	6-6
1979-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 14-10	1532.18	1584.58	33.91%	65.86%	+6.11	7-6
1979-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 42-35	1538.29	1485.13	48.50%	51.25%	+6.29	8-6
1979-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-14	1544.58	1511.51	63.32%	36.45%	+3.79	9-6
1979-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-29	1548.37	1488.68	66.79%	32.98%	-6.93	9-7
1979-09-02	New York Giants	W 23-17	1507.74	1454.14	66.01%	33.76%	+3.84	1-0
1979-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1511.58	1480.85	63.01%	36.76%	-5.84	1-1
1979-09-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-14	1505.74	1454.23	48.26%	51.49%	+8.28	2-1
1979-09-23	@ New York Giants	W 17-13	1514.02	1432.80	52.53%	47.21%	+4.38	3-1
1979-09-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1518.40	1644.56	40.85%	58.90%	+4.73	4-1
1979-10-07	Washington Redskins	W 28-17	1523.13	1511.87	60.36%	39.40%	+6.07	5-1
1979-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-20	1529.20	1480.24	47.90%	51.85%	+4.81	6-1
1979-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-17	1534.01	1511.11	44.17%	55.58%	-6.48	6-2
1979-10-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-37	1527.53	1470.52	49.05%	50.70%	-11.16	6-3
1979-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-24	1516.37	1501.95	60.80%	38.96%	-6.30	6-4
1979-11-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-21	1510.07	1647.04	23.99%	75.82%	+11.12	7-4
1979-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-13	1521.19	1470.28	65.67%	34.10%	+2.74	8-4
1979-11-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1523.93	1446.40	52.00%	47.74%	+7.35	9-4
1979-12-02	Detroit Lions	W 44-7	1531.28	1436.02	71.16%	28.63%	+8.09	10-4
1979-12-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1539.37	1622.36	46.96%	52.79%	-5.77	10-5
1979-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 26-20	1533.60	1560.27	37.30%	62.46%	+7.10	11-5
1979-09-03	@ New England Patriots	W 16-13	1629.01	1539.17	53.77%	45.98%	+3.70	1-0
1979-09-09	Houston Oilers	W 38-7	1632.71	1535.39	71.40%	28.39%	+7.34	2-0
1979-09-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-21	1640.05	1490.04	62.18%	37.58%	+3.02	3-0
1979-09-23	Baltimore Colts	W 17-13	1643.07	1418.76	83.81%	16.04%	+1.49	4-0
1979-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1644.56	1518.40	58.90%	40.85%	-4.73	4-1
1979-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 51-35	1639.83	1501.67	60.56%	39.19%	+7.28	5-1
1979-10-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-34	1647.11	1457.00	67.43%	32.35%	-15.33	5-2
1979-10-22	Denver Broncos	W 42-7	1631.78	1568.79	67.21%	32.56%	+8.95	6-2
1979-10-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 14-3	1640.73	1651.51	57.29%	42.46%	+6.54	7-2
1979-11-04	Washington Redskins	W 38-7	1647.27	1511.55	75.69%	24.12%	+6.23	8-2
1979-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-3	1653.50	1440.17	70.29%	29.50%	+7.12	9-2
1979-11-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-35	1660.62	1564.58	54.66%	45.09%	-13.42	9-3
1979-11-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-30	1647.20	1507.41	76.12%	23.69%	+1.91	10-3
1979-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-17	1649.11	1469.32	80.04%	19.79%	+4.11	11-3
1979-12-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-20	1653.22	1555.86	54.84%	44.91%	-4.41	11-4
1979-12-16	Buffalo Bills	W 28-0	1648.81	1454.28	81.36%	18.48%	+4.54	12-4
1979-09-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-16	1531.38	1481.41	48.04%	51.71%	+9.89	1-0
1979-09-09	Oakland Raiders	W 30-10	1541.27	1542.41	58.64%	41.11%	+8.54	2-0
1979-09-16	Buffalo Bills	W 27-19	1549.81	1450.91	71.59%	28.20%	+3.71	3-0
1979-09-23	@ New England Patriots	L 21-27	1553.52	1552.18	41.14%	58.62%	-4.68	3-1
1979-09-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-9	1548.84	1404.79	76.56%	23.26%	+5.06	4-1
1979-10-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-7	1553.90	1555.99	40.66%	59.09%	-4.99	4-2
1979-10-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1548.91	1470.14	69.18%	30.60%	+4.49	5-2
1979-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 40-16	1553.40	1557.61	40.37%	59.39%	+13.50	6-2
1979-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 22-45	1566.90	1531.23	45.99%	53.76%	-10.24	6-3
1979-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1556.66	1445.05	56.86%	42.89%	+4.88	7-3
1979-11-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-24	1561.54	1474.24	53.41%	46.34%	+3.04	8-3
1979-11-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1564.58	1660.62	45.09%	54.66%	+13.42	9-3
1979-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-7	1578.00	1438.86	76.05%	23.76%	+5.06	10-3
1979-12-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 26-28	1583.06	1437.98	76.66%	23.15%	-5.03	10-4
1979-12-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-0	1578.03	1478.84	55.10%	44.65%	+12.26	11-4
1979-12-17	Denver Broncos	W 17-7	1590.29	1576.15	60.76%	39.00%	+5.73	12-4
1979-09-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-28	1421.47	1500.92	30.52%	69.26%	-3.47	0-1
1979-09-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-21	1418.00	1635.87	28.96%	70.83%	-3.80	0-2
1979-09-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1414.20	1557.26	23.36%	76.46%	-1.88	0-3
1979-09-23	New Orleans Saints	L 21-30	1412.32	1445.96	54.05%	45.70%	-7.53	0-4
1979-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 9-31	1404.79	1548.84	23.26%	76.56%	-5.06	0-5
1979-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-35	1399.73	1462.46	49.87%	49.88%	-7.68	0-6
1979-10-14	@ New York Giants	L 16-32	1392.05	1426.71	36.23%	63.53%	-6.73	0-7
1979-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-15	1385.32	1472.05	46.42%	53.32%	+5.53	1-7
1979-10-28	Chicago Bears	L 27-28	1390.85	1477.61	46.42%	53.33%	-2.15	1-8
1979-11-04	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-23	1388.70	1541.47	22.37%	77.44%	-3.75	1-9
1979-11-11	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-31	1384.95	1473.21	29.46%	70.33%	-4.53	1-10
1979-11-18	Denver Broncos	L 28-38	1380.42	1580.00	31.17%	68.61%	-4.58	1-11
1979-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1375.84	1546.28	34.87%	64.90%	-3.97	1-12
1979-12-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-13	1371.87	1462.83	29.13%	70.65%	-2.34	1-13
1979-12-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1369.53	1459.17	46.01%	53.74%	+9.98	2-13
1979-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-31	1379.51	1433.85	33.66%	66.11%	-4.95	2-14
1979-09-02	San Diego Chargers	L 16-33	1481.41	1531.38	51.71%	48.04%	-9.89	0-1
1979-09-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-19	1471.52	1566.56	28.65%	71.14%	-3.99	0-2
1979-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 27-10	1467.53	1533.87	49.35%	50.40%	+9.64	1-2
1979-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 34-37	1477.17	1564.74	29.54%	70.25%	-2.38	1-3
1979-09-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-24	1474.79	1446.68	62.66%	37.11%	-12.33	1-4
1979-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 35-24	1462.46	1399.73	49.88%	49.87%	+7.68	2-4
1979-10-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-20	1470.14	1548.91	30.60%	69.18%	-4.49	2-5
1979-10-21	Houston Oilers	W 34-14	1465.65	1543.22	47.74%	52.01%	+10.79	3-5
1979-10-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1476.44	1466.51	42.34%	57.41%	+4.62	4-5
1979-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-24	1481.06	1535.90	51.01%	48.74%	-11.60	4-6
1979-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-24	1469.46	1508.25	35.69%	64.08%	+6.64	5-6
1979-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 38-24	1476.10	1477.75	58.57%	41.18%	+7.16	6-6
1979-11-26	New York Jets	W 30-7	1483.26	1474.47	60.02%	39.74%	+8.85	7-6
1979-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-37	1492.11	1433.81	49.24%	50.51%	-9.14	7-7
1979-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 28-23	1482.97	1581.87	44.69%	55.06%	+5.71	8-7
1979-12-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 29-24	1488.68	1548.37	32.98%	66.79%	+6.93	9-7
1979-09-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-22	1482.66	1634.13	37.39%	62.38%	-1.73	0-1
1979-09-09	@ New York Giants	W 27-14	1480.93	1450.30	45.27%	54.48%	+9.11	1-1
1979-09-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-24	1490.04	1640.05	37.58%	62.18%	-3.02	1-2
1979-09-23	Washington Redskins	L 7-17	1487.02	1495.69	57.59%	42.16%	-8.45	1-3
1979-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-21	1478.57	1549.03	31.63%	68.15%	-6.73	1-4
1979-10-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1471.84	1545.07	31.28%	68.50%	+8.40	2-4
1979-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1480.24	1529.20	51.85%	47.90%	-4.81	2-5
1979-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-22	1475.43	1648.67	20.40%	79.43%	-2.84	2-6
1979-10-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-38	1472.59	1490.88	56.23%	43.52%	-11.07	2-7
1979-11-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-7	1461.52	1482.24	55.89%	43.86%	+11.15	3-7
1979-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-30	1472.67	1505.32	36.50%	63.26%	-2.39	3-8
1979-11-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-16	1470.28	1521.19	34.10%	65.67%	-2.75	3-9
1979-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-34	1467.53	1464.62	41.36%	58.39%	-4.70	3-10
1979-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-10	1462.83	1371.87	70.65%	29.13%	+2.34	4-10
1979-12-09	New York Giants	W 29-20	1465.17	1447.09	61.30%	38.46%	+5.36	5-10
1979-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-42	1470.53	1500.27	36.89%	62.87%	-10.28	5-11
1979-09-01	Detroit Lions	W 31-16	1428.56	1486.59	50.55%	49.20%	+8.84	1-0
1979-09-09	@ Baltimore Colts	W 29-26	1437.40	1425.87	42.57%	57.19%	+4.60	2-0
1979-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1442.00	1471.17	36.97%	62.80%	+9.66	3-0
1979-09-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 21-6	1451.66	1559.14	43.47%	56.28%	+10.12	4-0
1979-09-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-13	1461.78	1490.23	37.06%	62.70%	+5.82	5-0
1979-10-07	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1467.60	1422.91	47.28%	52.47%	-3.81	5-1
1979-10-14	New Orleans Saints	L 14-42	1463.79	1450.13	60.69%	39.07%	-14.90	5-2
1979-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 21-3	1448.89	1463.95	56.69%	43.06%	+8.49	6-2
1979-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 12-10	1457.38	1486.36	36.99%	62.77%	+4.12	7-2
1979-11-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-17	1461.50	1461.90	40.90%	58.86%	-3.29	7-3
1979-11-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1458.21	1433.43	44.44%	55.31%	+3.63	8-3
1979-11-18	New York Giants	W 31-3	1461.84	1454.64	59.80%	39.96%	+9.81	9-3
1979-11-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 22-23	1471.65	1468.35	59.26%	40.49%	-2.75	9-4
1979-12-02	Chicago Bears	L 0-14	1468.90	1488.23	56.09%	43.67%	-9.73	9-5
1979-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1459.17	1369.53	53.74%	46.01%	-9.98	9-6
1979-12-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 3-0	1449.19	1447.20	59.08%	40.68%	+3.27	10-6
1979-09-02	Houston Oilers	L 27-29	1486.07	1531.96	52.29%	47.46%	-3.43	0-1
1979-09-09	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1482.64	1477.74	41.64%	58.12%	+4.67	1-1
1979-09-17	New York Giants	W 27-0	1487.31	1441.18	65.04%	34.72%	+8.38	2-1
1979-09-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-7	1495.69	1487.02	42.16%	57.59%	+8.45	3-1
1979-09-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-7	1504.14	1480.79	44.24%	55.51%	+7.73	4-1
1979-10-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-28	1511.87	1523.13	39.40%	60.36%	-6.07	4-2
1979-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-9	1505.80	1494.39	42.55%	57.20%	+5.31	5-2
1979-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1511.11	1534.01	55.58%	44.17%	+6.49	6-2
1979-10-28	New Orleans Saints	L 10-14	1517.60	1470.79	65.13%	34.64%	-6.05	6-3
1979-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-38	1511.55	1647.27	24.12%	75.69%	-6.23	6-4
1979-11-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-28	1505.32	1472.67	63.26%	36.50%	+2.39	7-4
1979-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-20	1507.71	1635.92	40.57%	59.19%	+10.28	8-4
1979-11-25	@ New York Giants	L 6-14	1517.99	1444.82	51.38%	48.37%	-6.75	8-5
1979-12-02	Green Bay Packers	W 38-21	1511.24	1439.05	68.37%	31.41%	+6.02	9-5
1979-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-14	1517.26	1465.21	65.81%	33.96%	+5.90	10-5
1979-12-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 34-35	1523.16	1628.13	27.50%	72.29%	-1.28	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1979-12-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1510.55	1540.70	36.95%	63.05%	-5.41	0-1
1979-12-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-21	1629.41	1550.07	69.37%	30.63%	-4.55	0-1
1979-12-23	@ Houston Oilers	L 7-13	1570.43	1553.17	43.50%	56.50%	-4.94	0-1
1979-12-23	Denver Broncos	W 13-7	1553.17	1570.43	56.50%	43.50%	+4.93	1-0
1979-12-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1558.10	1596.02	35.91%	64.09%	+5.14	2-0
1980-01-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-27	1563.24	1659.80	28.56%	71.44%	-4.94	2-1
1979-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-19	1550.07	1629.41	30.63%	69.37%	+4.55	1-0
1980-01-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-0	1554.62	1459.13	54.70%	45.30%	+6.29	2-0
1980-01-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-31	1560.91	1664.75	35.49%	64.51%	-5.69	2-1
1979-12-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-34	1578.47	1653.35	31.17%	68.83%	-6.46	0-1
1979-12-23	Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1540.70	1510.55	63.05%	36.95%	+5.41	1-0
1979-12-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-24	1546.11	1452.46	54.44%	45.56%	-6.67	1-1
1979-12-30	Miami Dolphins	W 34-14	1653.35	1578.47	68.83%	31.17%	+6.45	1-0
1980-01-06	Houston Oilers	W 27-13	1659.80	1563.24	71.44%	28.56%	+4.95	2-0
1980-01-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-19	1664.75	1560.91	64.51%	35.49%	+5.69	3-0
1979-12-29	Houston Oilers	L 14-17	1596.02	1558.10	64.09%	35.91%	-5.14	0-1
1979-12-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1452.46	1546.11	45.56%	54.44%	+6.67	1-0
1980-01-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-9	1459.13	1554.62	45.30%	54.70%	-6.29	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1979-12-02	23.15%	Atlanta Falcons	1437.98	28	@ San Diego Chargers	1583.06	26
2	1979-11-12	23.99%	Philadelphia Eagles	1510.07	31	@ Dallas Cowboys	1647.04	21
3	1979-12-15	26.85%	New York Jets	1473.61	27	@ Miami Dolphins	1584.33	24
4	1979-11-25	26.98%	Buffalo Bills	1456.72	16	@ New England Patriots	1566.28	13
5	1979-10-28	27.51%	New York Giants	1439.18	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1544.11	14
6	1979-11-18	27.51%	Kansas City Chiefs	1433.06	24	@ Oakland Raiders	1537.98	21
7	1979-12-16	28.50%	New Orleans Saints	1466.58	29	@ Los Angeles Rams	1562.88	14
8	1979-12-30 *	30.63%	Los Angeles Rams	1550.07	21	@ Dallas Cowboys	1629.41	19
9	1979-10-07	31.28%	St. Louis Cardinals	1471.84	24	@ Houston Oilers	1545.07	17
10	1979-11-22	31.49%	Houston Oilers	1554.12	30	@ Dallas Cowboys	1625.64	24
11	1979-10-14	32.35%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1457.00	34	Pittsburgh Steelers	1647.11	10
12	1979-12-16	32.98%	Seattle Seahawks	1488.68	29	@ Oakland Raiders	1548.37	24
13	1979-11-25	33.91%	Oakland Raiders	1532.18	14	@ Denver Broncos	1584.58	10
14	1979-10-21	34.03%	Baltimore Colts	1403.49	14	@ Buffalo Bills	1454.95	13
15	1979-10-28	34.64%	New Orleans Saints	1470.79	14	@ Washington Redskins	1517.60	10
16	1979-12-16	34.90%	Baltimore Colts	1396.96	31	@ New York Giants	1441.73	7
17	1979-11-11	35.69%	Seattle Seahawks	1469.46	29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1508.25	24
18	1979-10-28	35.86%	@ Baltimore Colts	1406.54	31	New England Patriots	1569.41	26
19	1979-11-05	35.86%	Houston Oilers	1535.17	9	@ Miami Dolphins	1572.63	6
20	1979-12-29 *	35.91%	Houston Oilers	1558.10	17	@ San Diego Chargers	1596.02	14
21	1979-11-11	35.94%	Buffalo Bills	1447.50	14	@ New York Jets	1484.41	12
22	1979-09-10	36.76%	Atlanta Falcons	1480.85	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1511.58	10
23	1979-09-16	36.97%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1442.00	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1471.17	10
24	1979-10-28	36.99%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1457.38	12	@ Minnesota Vikings	1486.36	10
25	1979-09-30	37.06%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1461.78	17	@ Chicago Bears	1490.23	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1979-10-14	15.33	@ Cincinnati Bengals	34	1457.00	32.35%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1647.11	67.43%
2	1979-10-14	14.90	New Orleans Saints	42	1450.13	39.07%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1463.79	60.69%
3	1979-12-16	14.74	Baltimore Colts	31	1396.96	34.90%	@ New York Giants	7	1441.73	64.87%
4	1979-11-25	14.54	New Orleans Saints	37	1470.60	43.49%	@ Atlanta Falcons	6	1452.52	56.26%
5	1979-10-21	13.50	San Diego Chargers	40	1553.40	40.37%	@ Los Angeles Rams	16	1557.61	59.39%
6	1979-11-18	13.42	@ San Diego Chargers	35	1564.58	45.09%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1660.62	54.66%
7	1979-09-23	13.24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	35	1433.44	45.84%	Oakland Raiders	7	1524.23	53.91%
8	1979-12-16	12.81	New Orleans Saints	29	1466.58	28.50%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1562.88	71.28%
9	1979-09-24	12.43	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	26	1497.15	38.30%	Dallas Cowboys	7	1641.86	61.46%
10	1979-09-30	12.33	Kansas City Chiefs	24	1446.68	37.11%	@ Seattle Seahawks	6	1474.79	62.66%
11	1979-12-09	12.26	San Diego Chargers	35	1578.03	55.10%	@ New Orleans Saints	0	1478.84	44.65%
12	1979-11-04	11.60	Los Angeles Rams	24	1535.90	48.74%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1481.06	51.01%
13	1979-09-09	11.54	@ Buffalo Bills	51	1439.37	51.93%	Cincinnati Bengals	24	1487.81	47.82%
14	1979-11-11	11.38	@ Denver Broncos	45	1568.63	58.35%	New England Patriots	10	1571.85	41.40%
15	1979-09-09	11.17	@ New England Patriots	56	1535.47	66.75%	New York Jets	3	1476.12	33.02%
16	1979-10-28	11.16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	37	1470.52	50.70%	Philadelphia Eagles	13	1527.53	49.05%
17	1979-11-04	11.16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	37	1461.52	55.89%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1482.24	43.86%
18	1979-09-30	11.13	@ Oakland Raiders	27	1510.99	50.82%	Denver Broncos	3	1567.12	48.93%
19	1979-11-12	11.12	Philadelphia Eagles	31	1510.07	23.99%	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1647.04	75.82%
20	1979-10-28	11.07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1490.88	43.52%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1472.59	56.23%
21	1979-10-21	10.79	@ Seattle Seahawks	34	1465.65	47.74%	Houston Oilers	14	1543.22	52.01%
22	1979-11-22	10.68	@ Detroit Lions	20	1425.34	48.31%	Chicago Bears	0	1498.90	51.44%
23	1979-09-30	10.52	Buffalo Bills	31	1455.24	46.32%	@ Baltimore Colts	13	1417.27	53.43%
24	1979-10-14	10.43	New England Patriots	27	1551.29	49.48%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1491.31	50.27%
25	1979-11-18	10.28	@ Washington Redskins	34	1507.71	40.57%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1635.92	59.19%