1978 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1975

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

5th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1977

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

2.92 wins above expected

14 wins · 11.08 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

4.31 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.31 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	14	2	.875	-	356	195	+161	11.08	+2.92
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	10	6	.625	4	283	298	-15	8.23	+1.77
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	8	.500	6	334	356	-22	8.07	-0.07
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	10	252	284	-32	6.78	-2.78

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	11	5	.688	-	358	286	+72	9.67	+1.33
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	11	5	.688	-	372	254	+118	9.76	+1.24
3	New York Jets	8	8	.500	3	359	364	-5	6.39	+1.61
4	Buffalo Bills	5	11	.312	6	302	354	-52	5.98	-0.98
5	Baltimore Colts	5	11	.312	6	239	421	-182	7.18	-2.18

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	10	6	.625	-	282	198	+84	10.21	-0.21
2	San Diego Chargers	9	7	.562	1	355	309	+46	7.72	+1.28
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	1	345	358	-13	6.53	+2.47
4	Oakland Raiders	9	7	.562	1	311	283	+28	10.01	-1.01
5	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	6	243	327	-84	5.80	-1.80

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	8	7	1	.531	-	294	306	-12	9.21	-0.71
2	Green Bay Packers	8	7	1	.531	-	249	269	-20	7.54	+0.96
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	0	.438	1.5	290	300	-10	6.82	+0.18
4	Chicago Bears	7	9	0	.438	1.5	253	274	-21	7.97	-0.97
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	0	.312	3.5	241	259	-18	6.45	-1.45

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	-	384	208	+176	10.32	+1.68
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	270	250	+20	7.42	+1.58
3	Washington Redskins	8	8	.500	4	273	283	-10	9.33	-1.33
4	St. Louis Cardinals	6	10	.375	6	248	296	-48	6.75	-0.75
5	New York Giants	6	10	.375	6	264	298	-34	7.36	-1.36

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	4	.750	-	316	245	+71	10.94	+1.06
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	240	290	-50	8.08	+0.92
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	5	281	298	-17	6.11	+0.89
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	.125	10	219	350	-131	6.31	-4.31

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Oilers 17

Miami Dolphins 9

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 33

Denver Broncos 10

Dec 30

Houston Oilers 31

New England Patriots 14

Dec 31

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Houston Oilers 5

Jan 7

NFC

Wild Card Round

Atlanta Falcons 14

Philadelphia Eagles 13

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 27

Atlanta Falcons 20

Dec 30

Los Angeles Rams 34

Minnesota Vikings 10

Dec 31

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 28

Los Angeles Rams 0

Jan 7

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 35

Dallas Cowboys 31

Jan 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1694	12	10.32	+1.68	88.61%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1689	14	11.08	+2.92	98.18%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1628	11	9.76	+1.24	82.62%	1	7	8	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1624	12	10.94	+1.06	80.85%	2	8	10	11	12	14	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1615	10	10.21	-0.21	56.14%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1599	11	9.67	+1.33	83.82%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1560	9	10.01	-1.01	39.44%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1553	9	7.72	+1.28	82.89%	0	5	6	8	9	11	15
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1528	10	8.23	+1.77	88.69%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1520	9	7.42	+1.58	86.50%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1517	8.5	9.21	-0.71	35.70%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1486	4	6.78	-2.78	11.59%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1478	8	9.33	-1.33	33.44%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1477	8	8.07	-0.07	59.49%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1477	7	6.82	+0.18	65.25%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1477	7	7.97	-0.97	41.45%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1471	9	6.53	+2.47	94.24%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1471	6	6.75	-0.75	46.09%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1468	8	6.39	+1.61	87.48%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1462	9	8.08	+0.92	77.29%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1451	8.5	7.54	+0.96	70.01%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1442	7	6.11	+0.89	78.07%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1419	6	7.36	-1.36	33.89%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1397	5	7.18	-2.18	19.48%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1394	5	5.98	-0.98	41.54%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1384	4	5.80	-1.80	25.15%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1362	5	6.45	-1.45	32.10%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1353	2	6.31	-4.31	1.72%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	-	-
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	-	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.89%	2.01%	2.90%	2.23%	0.67%	0.22%	0.22%	9.15%
7–13	2.01%	4.02%	7.14%	4.24%	2.46%	1.12%	—	20.98%
14–20	2.90%	7.14%	9.82%	6.92%	3.35%	1.12%	0.89%	32.14%
21–27	2.23%	4.24%	6.92%	3.57%	2.46%	—	1.12%	20.54%
28–34	0.67%	2.46%	3.35%	2.46%	1.79%	0.67%	0.22%	11.61%
35–41	0.22%	1.12%	1.12%	—	0.67%	—	—	3.12%
42+	0.22%	—	0.89%	1.12%	0.22%	—	—	2.46%
Total	9.15%	20.98%	32.14%	20.54%	11.61%	3.12%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.33	18.33	+0.00
SD	9.70	9.70	13.52
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	18.12	-3.12
SD	6.91	10.89	12.77
CV	0.46	0.60	—
Max	23	42	+14
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	26.31	-11.38
SD	9.33	10.93	15.86
CV	0.62	0.42	—
Max	34	45	+13
Min	0	6	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	22.12	-3.25
SD	9.02	11.39	13.80
CV	0.48	0.51	—
Max	41	45	+24
Min	5	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	75.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	17.12	-1.31
SD	5.19	11.97	12.40
CV	0.33	0.70	—
Max	29	40	+19
Min	7	0	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.75	17.75	-2.00
SD	13.54	8.37	15.91
CV	0.86	0.47	—
Max	48	34	+32
Min	0	5	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	56.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	22.25	-1.38
SD	12.48	12.19	15.84
CV	0.60	0.55	—
Max	45	48	+21
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	50.00%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	13.00	+11.00
SD	10.84	7.99	14.96
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	42	27	+38
Min	5	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.62	12.38	+5.25
SD	7.93	8.06	11.29
CV	0.45	0.65	—
Max	28	31	+21
Min	0	3	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	50.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.12	18.75	-0.62
SD	12.45	7.18	14.81
CV	0.69	0.38	—
Max	45	35	+31
Min	0	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	16.81	-1.25
SD	12.70	10.65	15.95
CV	0.82	0.63	—
Max	45	42	+21
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	18.62	-0.94
SD	7.60	9.49	8.41
CV	0.43	0.51	—
Max	35	45	+7
Min	3	10	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	20.44	-5.25
SD	6.46	9.21	12.14
CV	0.43	0.45	—
Max	24	30	+23
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	15.31	+4.44
SD	9.60	7.91	8.75
CV	0.49	0.52	—
Max	34	30	+17
Min	3	0	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	15.88	+7.38
SD	8.47	12.37	15.36
CV	0.36	0.78	—
Max	42	35	+42
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	19.12	-0.75
SD	6.49	11.66	11.98
CV	0.35	0.61	—
Max	28	45	+17
Min	7	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	17.88	+4.50
SD	12.33	7.91	12.14
CV	0.55	0.44	—
Max	55	34	+34
Min	3	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	62.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	18.62	-1.06
SD	6.17	7.28	8.84
CV	0.35	0.39	—
Max	31	28	+11
Min	7	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	18.62	-2.12
SD	6.81	10.31	13.13
CV	0.41	0.55	—
Max	27	41	+17
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.44	22.75	-0.31
SD	11.06	11.42	17.04
CV	0.49	0.50	—
Max	45	55	+31
Min	3	10	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%	37.50%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	17.69	+1.75
SD	9.29	6.70	13.21
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	34	27	+25
Min	6	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.88	15.62	+1.25
SD	6.17	9.76	9.09
CV	0.37	0.62	—
Max	30	35	+17
Min	7	3	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	12.19	+10.06
SD	8.72	6.51	9.57
CV	0.39	0.53	—
Max	35	24	+25
Min	7	3	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	19.31	+2.88
SD	12.16	9.08	17.02
CV	0.55	0.47	—
Max	45	31	+33
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	37.50%	—	—	—	56.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.69	21.88	-8.19
SD	7.01	8.66	9.62
CV	0.51	0.40	—
Max	28	38	+16
Min	6	3	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	22.38	-0.81
SD	10.22	9.61	13.56
CV	0.47	0.43	—
Max	47	45	+23
Min	7	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.50	18.50	-3.00
SD	9.70	6.25	11.60
CV	0.63	0.34	—
Max	42	30	+21
Min	0	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	16.19	-1.12
SD	10.03	7.27	10.89
CV	0.67	0.45	—
Max	33	34	+21
Min	3	6	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	17.69	-0.62
SD	10.20	8.65	12.64
CV	0.60	0.49	—
Max	38	37	+20
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 16

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.52	+0.4
Allowed	0.37	-0.3
Differential	0.73	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	11.08	+2.92
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	6.53	+2.47
3	Houston Oilers	10	8.23	+1.77
4	Dallas Cowboys	12	10.32	+1.68
5	New York Jets	8	6.39	+1.61

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	2	6.31	-4.31
2	Cincinnati Bengals	4	6.78	-2.78
3	Baltimore Colts	5	7.18	-2.18
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4	5.80	-1.80
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	6.45	-1.45

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 29 – Nov 19	1 in 60
2	New Orleans Saints	3	Oct 15 – Oct 29	1 in 41
3	New England Patriots	7	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 39
4	San Diego Chargers	4	Oct 29 – Nov 19	1 in 31
5	Atlanta Falcons	5	Oct 15 – Nov 12	1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Sep 3 – Oct 22	1 in 372
2	Chicago Bears	8	Sep 25 – Nov 12	1 in 333
3	San Francisco 49ers	9	Oct 8 – Dec 3	1 in 89
4	St. Louis Cardinals	8	Sep 3 – Oct 22	1 in 58
5	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 19 – Dec 16	1 in 54

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.46%	19.03%	6.66%	1.85%
Houston Oilers	12.62%	34.61%	32.01%	20.76%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	11.33%	30.98%	32.91%	24.78%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.59%	15.38%	28.42%	52.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	43.76%	33.27%	14.54%	6.26%	2.16%
New England Patriots	43.26%	33.43%	14.72%	6.40%	2.19%
Baltimore Colts	7.45%	16.55%	30.49%	26.66%	18.86%
New York Jets	3.45%	9.87%	22.24%	31.45%	32.99%
Buffalo Bills	2.08%	6.89%	18.01%	29.22%	43.80%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	46.16%	32.86%	14.13%	5.36%	1.49%
Oakland Raiders	41.48%	35.19%	15.68%	5.95%	1.71%
San Diego Chargers	8.33%	18.69%	34.34%	24.93%	13.72%
Seattle Seahawks	2.85%	8.83%	22.14%	34.74%	31.43%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.18%	4.44%	13.71%	29.03%	51.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	47.47%	25.09%	14.82%	8.48%	4.15%
Chicago Bears	21.45%	25.31%	22.34%	18.03%	12.86%
Green Bay Packers	16.15%	22.04%	23.34%	21.46%	17.02%
Detroit Lions	8.82%	15.61%	21.11%	26.29%	28.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.11%	11.96%	18.39%	25.74%	37.80%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	54.10%	26.21%	12.00%	5.61%	2.07%
Washington Redskins	28.46%	33.61%	20.20%	11.99%	5.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.30%	16.03%	25.26%	27.21%	24.20%
New York Giants	6.40%	14.27%	23.52%	27.47%	28.32%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.74%	9.87%	19.02%	27.71%	39.67%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	80.30%	15.41%	3.56%	0.73%
Atlanta Falcons	13.91%	48.12%	25.18%	12.80%
San Francisco 49ers	3.16%	19.38%	36.63%	40.84%
New Orleans Saints	2.64%	17.10%	34.63%	45.64%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.12%	22.43%	15.70%	9.58%	6.72%	4.92%	3.19%	2.19%	1.37%	0.86%	0.49%	0.30%	0.11%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	18.29%	16.20%	14.98%	12.62%	10.45%	8.27%	5.79%	4.46%	3.30%	2.30%	1.51%	0.98%	0.59%	0.25%
Oakland Raiders	15.68%	15.09%	14.20%	13.63%	10.95%	8.73%	6.69%	4.92%	3.66%	2.59%	1.74%	1.13%	0.69%	0.32%
Miami Dolphins	12.04%	14.41%	14.45%	12.77%	11.44%	9.69%	7.06%	5.52%	4.33%	3.02%	2.28%	1.53%	0.97%	0.49%
New England Patriots	11.07%	13.98%	14.60%	12.83%	11.63%	9.72%	7.42%	5.62%	4.41%	3.23%	2.34%	1.63%	1.05%	0.48%
Houston Oilers	3.36%	4.78%	6.19%	8.61%	10.42%	11.10%	10.69%	10.12%	9.62%	7.74%	6.67%	5.68%	3.40%	1.64%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.88%	4.16%	5.75%	7.52%	9.67%	10.50%	10.36%	10.32%	9.79%	8.33%	7.46%	6.59%	4.37%	2.30%
San Diego Chargers	1.85%	3.10%	4.35%	6.54%	7.28%	8.71%	10.41%	10.89%	10.25%	9.86%	8.45%	7.41%	6.17%	4.73%
Baltimore Colts	0.94%	2.02%	3.22%	4.49%	5.80%	7.15%	8.78%	10.00%	10.75%	10.31%	10.31%	9.69%	8.82%	7.72%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.62%	1.25%	1.95%	3.48%	4.57%	5.90%	7.70%	8.89%	10.09%	11.14%	12.67%	14.05%	10.64%	7.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.43%	0.91%	1.63%	2.63%	3.60%	4.85%	6.80%	7.90%	9.06%	11.02%	11.87%	12.34%	13.07%	13.87%
New York Jets	0.34%	0.83%	1.40%	2.46%	3.31%	4.50%	6.00%	7.73%	9.01%	10.53%	11.95%	12.72%	14.38%	14.84%
Buffalo Bills	0.20%	0.49%	0.94%	1.58%	2.37%	3.29%	4.88%	6.05%	7.72%	9.70%	11.24%	12.75%	17.02%	21.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.16%	0.34%	0.64%	1.26%	1.80%	2.69%	4.23%	5.38%	6.65%	9.37%	11.00%	13.20%	18.72%	24.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	37.26%	23.54%	14.50%	8.41%	5.62%	3.95%	2.48%	1.58%	1.17%	0.66%	0.43%	0.25%	0.11%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	25.56%	20.47%	14.19%	11.37%	7.86%	5.94%	4.59%	3.20%	2.38%	1.74%	1.21%	0.77%	0.49%	0.22%
Minnesota Vikings	10.01%	13.67%	15.72%	11.76%	10.58%	8.97%	6.85%	5.94%	4.87%	3.64%	3.06%	2.26%	1.59%	1.08%
Washington Redskins	11.15%	13.12%	12.87%	13.18%	10.52%	8.87%	7.60%	6.15%	4.75%	4.06%	3.06%	2.19%	1.55%	0.94%
Atlanta Falcons	3.81%	5.57%	7.40%	9.56%	11.20%	11.42%	9.66%	8.69%	8.24%	6.89%	5.93%	5.13%	4.02%	2.49%
Chicago Bears	3.03%	5.97%	8.48%	8.57%	9.49%	9.40%	8.72%	8.78%	7.97%	7.33%	6.83%	5.84%	5.03%	4.57%
Green Bay Packers	2.06%	4.14%	6.30%	7.09%	8.21%	8.46%	8.62%	9.14%	8.81%	8.20%	8.35%	7.52%	6.71%	6.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.17%	3.35%	4.48%	6.60%	7.04%	7.76%	9.09%	9.04%	9.09%	9.14%	8.93%	8.29%	8.12%	6.90%
New York Giants	1.83%	3.15%	4.21%	6.07%	6.48%	7.40%	8.96%	8.63%	8.84%	9.70%	9.06%	8.75%	8.85%	8.07%
Detroit Lions	0.82%	2.06%	3.58%	4.37%	5.73%	6.48%	7.32%	8.47%	8.57%	9.37%	10.43%	10.42%	10.31%	12.06%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.91%	1.67%	2.61%	4.17%	4.77%	5.59%	7.39%	7.60%	8.60%	9.96%	10.39%	11.19%	12.41%	12.74%
San Francisco 49ers	0.46%	1.07%	1.72%	2.89%	4.29%	5.52%	6.56%	8.09%	9.69%	10.35%	10.86%	12.71%	13.15%	12.63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.52%	1.37%	2.51%	3.43%	4.46%	5.23%	6.30%	7.30%	7.99%	9.16%	10.32%	11.21%	13.10%	17.10%
New Orleans Saints	0.40%	0.85%	1.41%	2.54%	3.76%	5.00%	5.87%	7.38%	9.03%	9.79%	11.14%	13.47%	14.57%	14.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.12%	15.12%	12.40%	9.87%	8.18%	6.56%	5.17%	4.30%	3.50%	2.70%	2.45%	1.99%	1.61%	1.32%	1.10%	0.85%	0.69%	0.53%	0.41%	0.35%	0.25%	0.19%	0.15%	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	18.96%	15.66%	11.58%	10.90%	7.60%	7.44%	4.88%	4.63%	3.43%	3.08%	2.20%	2.06%	1.54%	1.45%	0.93%	0.80%	0.66%	0.61%	0.43%	0.33%	0.25%	0.20%	0.14%	0.11%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	11.54%	11.79%	9.94%	9.70%	7.72%	7.28%	6.05%	5.66%	4.41%	4.23%	3.29%	3.09%	2.62%	2.31%	1.82%	1.68%	1.34%	1.12%	0.94%	0.88%	0.64%	0.54%	0.45%	0.33%	0.26%	0.20%	0.10%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	10.51%	9.55%	9.38%	8.12%	7.99%	6.98%	6.71%	5.62%	5.36%	4.36%	4.24%	3.51%	2.83%	2.45%	2.22%	1.98%	1.66%	1.36%	1.18%	0.92%	0.79%	0.64%	0.51%	0.40%	0.29%	0.23%	0.13%	0.07%
Oakland Raiders	8.73%	8.39%	8.48%	7.80%	8.10%	6.81%	7.21%	5.81%	5.46%	4.65%	4.52%	3.81%	3.20%	2.83%	2.55%	2.24%	1.83%	1.56%	1.31%	1.12%	0.90%	0.74%	0.58%	0.47%	0.36%	0.25%	0.17%	0.10%
Miami Dolphins	6.78%	7.01%	8.12%	7.29%	7.70%	6.76%	6.73%	5.86%	5.86%	4.88%	4.87%	4.20%	3.61%	3.13%	2.86%	2.48%	2.15%	1.92%	1.55%	1.33%	1.15%	1.01%	0.75%	0.72%	0.50%	0.37%	0.24%	0.15%
New England Patriots	5.96%	6.74%	7.76%	7.24%	7.70%	6.92%	6.77%	5.87%	5.87%	5.05%	4.88%	4.26%	3.71%	3.26%	3.01%	2.55%	2.26%	1.94%	1.63%	1.46%	1.15%	1.07%	0.86%	0.72%	0.52%	0.43%	0.25%	0.15%
Washington Redskins	4.29%	5.78%	5.96%	6.66%	6.32%	6.58%	6.22%	6.58%	5.43%	5.64%	4.78%	4.50%	4.09%	3.93%	3.40%	3.07%	2.70%	2.35%	2.26%	1.93%	1.70%	1.32%	1.23%	1.01%	0.81%	0.68%	0.50%	0.29%
Minnesota Vikings	4.01%	5.09%	5.81%	6.71%	6.57%	7.60%	5.94%	6.39%	5.68%	5.56%	4.58%	4.74%	4.00%	3.82%	3.24%	3.01%	2.73%	2.50%	2.14%	1.86%	1.66%	1.49%	1.30%	1.08%	0.90%	0.71%	0.54%	0.35%
Houston Oilers	1.58%	1.94%	2.70%	2.83%	3.59%	3.44%	4.81%	4.32%	5.23%	4.98%	5.53%	5.26%	5.29%	4.86%	4.98%	4.76%	4.43%	4.52%	3.82%	3.71%	3.30%	3.26%	2.61%	2.63%	1.94%	1.73%	1.14%	0.81%
Atlanta Falcons	1.24%	1.98%	2.31%	2.97%	3.26%	3.90%	4.15%	4.92%	4.79%	5.89%	4.93%	5.72%	5.07%	5.25%	4.36%	4.48%	4.48%	4.39%	3.62%	3.56%	3.28%	3.24%	2.86%	2.58%	2.12%	2.04%	1.50%	1.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.32%	1.79%	2.31%	2.48%	3.27%	3.28%	4.06%	4.16%	4.76%	4.74%	5.06%	5.20%	5.01%	4.93%	5.03%	4.83%	4.62%	4.57%	4.08%	3.92%	3.67%	3.59%	3.10%	3.05%	2.38%	2.16%	1.47%	1.16%
Chicago Bears	0.97%	1.70%	2.32%	2.91%	3.44%	4.25%	3.89%	4.55%	4.56%	4.84%	4.52%	4.95%	4.64%	4.68%	4.45%	4.52%	4.32%	4.33%	3.88%	3.80%	3.58%	3.42%	3.30%	2.93%	2.61%	2.52%	2.33%	1.80%
San Diego Chargers	0.73%	1.21%	1.65%	1.83%	2.51%	2.60%	3.62%	3.34%	3.96%	3.79%	4.74%	4.44%	5.01%	4.68%	5.46%	5.05%	4.94%	4.72%	4.79%	4.66%	4.28%	3.99%	3.65%	3.58%	3.19%	2.92%	2.55%	2.11%
Green Bay Packers	0.56%	1.09%	1.54%	2.09%	2.48%	3.10%	3.10%	3.69%	3.84%	4.24%	4.12%	4.47%	4.44%	4.69%	4.45%	4.72%	4.59%	4.71%	4.38%	4.38%	4.21%	4.27%	4.08%	3.82%	3.59%	3.50%	3.25%	2.60%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.57%	1.04%	1.36%	1.80%	2.02%	2.32%	2.86%	3.29%	3.39%	3.82%	3.92%	4.06%	4.32%	4.76%	4.62%	4.64%	4.68%	4.73%	4.62%	4.85%	4.44%	4.63%	4.34%	4.30%	4.12%	4.03%	3.56%	2.90%
New York Giants	0.46%	0.89%	1.16%	1.69%	1.76%	2.33%	2.60%	3.16%	2.99%	3.74%	3.64%	4.10%	4.14%	4.77%	4.35%	4.66%	4.56%	4.65%	5.01%	4.81%	4.64%	4.56%	4.85%	4.35%	4.58%	4.00%	4.09%	3.46%
Baltimore Colts	0.36%	0.62%	1.03%	1.21%	1.77%	1.84%	2.44%	2.45%	3.14%	2.97%	3.86%	3.54%	4.31%	4.31%	4.94%	4.82%	4.97%	5.20%	5.08%	5.03%	4.98%	5.08%	4.79%	4.78%	4.38%	4.44%	4.09%	3.59%
Detroit Lions	0.21%	0.45%	0.67%	1.04%	1.31%	1.69%	1.82%	2.40%	2.57%	2.99%	3.05%	3.38%	3.56%	3.88%	4.11%	4.35%	4.52%	4.57%	4.79%	4.98%	5.17%	5.35%	5.61%	5.38%	5.39%	5.44%	5.83%	5.49%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.21%	0.39%	0.60%	0.74%	1.11%	1.24%	1.83%	1.84%	2.45%	2.40%	3.07%	3.08%	3.84%	3.77%	4.40%	4.47%	4.76%	4.99%	5.34%	5.44%	5.88%	6.00%	6.13%	6.59%	5.43%	5.44%	4.44%	4.10%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.22%	0.43%	0.64%	0.84%	1.14%	1.37%	1.70%	2.15%	2.27%	2.59%	2.82%	2.92%	3.55%	3.76%	3.88%	4.08%	4.35%	4.49%	5.02%	5.16%	5.37%	5.33%	5.74%	5.65%	6.00%	6.27%	6.21%	6.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.16%	0.24%	0.48%	0.63%	0.86%	0.94%	1.42%	1.41%	1.94%	2.03%	2.70%	2.56%	3.42%	3.28%	4.08%	4.00%	4.35%	4.55%	5.18%	5.39%	5.66%	5.71%	5.92%	6.31%	6.44%	6.39%	6.77%	7.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.09%	0.27%	0.40%	0.68%	0.84%	1.27%	1.30%	1.85%	1.96%	2.45%	2.32%	2.83%	2.97%	3.46%	3.58%	3.77%	4.16%	4.28%	4.79%	4.81%	5.24%	5.42%	5.97%	5.67%	6.54%	6.74%	8.05%	8.30%
San Francisco 49ers	0.09%	0.21%	0.36%	0.56%	0.71%	0.91%	1.06%	1.50%	1.73%	2.19%	2.29%	2.88%	3.08%	3.54%	3.52%	4.22%	4.58%	5.02%	4.78%	5.43%	5.60%	5.91%	6.13%	6.46%	6.45%	7.15%	6.61%	7.04%
New York Jets	0.12%	0.23%	0.38%	0.48%	0.73%	0.86%	1.28%	1.28%	1.76%	1.81%	2.43%	2.46%	2.93%	3.07%	3.78%	3.97%	4.37%	4.39%	5.15%	5.26%	5.73%	5.85%	6.07%	6.53%	7.08%	6.85%	7.54%	7.62%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.18%	0.29%	0.43%	0.54%	0.75%	0.92%	1.32%	1.50%	1.97%	2.11%	2.54%	2.80%	3.07%	3.13%	3.83%	4.36%	4.66%	4.49%	5.15%	5.63%	6.16%	6.03%	7.06%	6.83%	8.14%	7.51%	8.54%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.12%	0.20%	0.31%	0.44%	0.57%	0.81%	0.94%	1.24%	1.34%	1.65%	1.89%	2.32%	2.59%	2.98%	3.23%	3.64%	3.94%	4.77%	4.82%	5.36%	5.60%	6.33%	6.67%	8.12%	8.39%	9.90%	11.75%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%	0.10%	0.16%	0.19%	0.35%	0.39%	0.65%	0.73%	0.94%	1.07%	1.43%	1.53%	2.09%	2.14%	2.77%	2.94%	3.28%	3.41%	4.57%	4.65%	5.49%	5.40%	6.52%	6.70%	9.05%	8.90%	11.19%	13.31%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.12%	23.33%	17.01%	7.98%	6.35%	13.21%
Denver Broncos	18.29%	15.36%	12.51%	15.30%	10.97%	27.56%
Oakland Raiders	15.68%	14.30%	11.50%	16.38%	11.56%	30.58%
Miami Dolphins	12.04%	14.91%	16.81%	11.13%	10.67%	34.44%
New England Patriots	11.07%	14.54%	17.65%	10.62%	10.77%	35.36%
Houston Oilers	3.36%	4.42%	4.84%	9.64%	10.95%	66.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.88%	3.99%	4.46%	8.36%	10.13%	70.18%
San Diego Chargers	1.85%	2.97%	3.51%	6.72%	7.70%	77.24%
Baltimore Colts	0.94%	2.22%	4.28%	3.61%	5.47%	83.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.62%	1.24%	1.73%	3.44%	4.69%	88.28%
Seattle Seahawks	0.43%	0.91%	1.51%	2.56%	3.59%	91.00%
New York Jets	0.34%	0.91%	2.20%	1.88%	3.07%	91.59%
Buffalo Bills	0.20%	0.56%	1.32%	1.23%	2.28%	94.41%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.16%	0.34%	0.67%	1.15%	1.79%	95.89%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	37.26%	25.52%	17.53%	5.40%	4.58%	9.72%
Dallas Cowboys	25.56%	19.27%	9.27%	16.09%	8.86%	20.95%
Washington Redskins	11.15%	11.10%	6.21%	19.51%	12.23%	39.80%
Minnesota Vikings	10.01%	15.04%	22.41%	6.42%	8.63%	37.49%
Atlanta Falcons	3.81%	5.06%	5.04%	11.54%	12.16%	62.40%
Chicago Bears	3.03%	6.57%	11.85%	5.93%	8.61%	64.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.17%	2.88%	2.25%	7.85%	7.78%	77.07%
Green Bay Packers	2.06%	4.64%	9.45%	4.78%	7.31%	71.75%
New York Giants	1.83%	2.60%	1.97%	7.38%	7.25%	78.96%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.91%	1.47%	1.35%	4.71%	5.14%	86.41%
Detroit Lions	0.82%	2.35%	5.66%	2.88%	5.13%	83.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.52%	1.56%	4.03%	2.29%	3.98%	87.61%
San Francisco 49ers	0.46%	1.07%	1.62%	2.81%	4.44%	89.59%
New Orleans Saints	0.40%	0.87%	1.37%	2.40%	3.90%	91.06%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+16.52%

Fortress

58.04%0.45%41.52%

Elo Value

Home Edge

27 Elo

0.037 points per Elo point

057.9280

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.41 points

Home-Tilted

-8+2.15+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.3

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

21%

Pittsburgh Steelers, 1st of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

24.8%

Favored

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.52 · As Expected: 1.52 to 2.08 · Elevated: 2.08 to 2.84 · High Variance: 2.84 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.57 · Close: 4.57 to 6.18 · Off Target: 6.18 to 8.06 · Well Off Target: 8.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.34 · As Expected: 2.34 to 3.89 · More Than Expected: 3.89 to 6.23 · Far More Than Expected: 6.23 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.67 wins

As Expected

01.895

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.71

Pinpoint

05.3715

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

98.18%

Pittsburgh Steelers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

1.72%

San Francisco 49ers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 10

Fewer Than Expected

03.110

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.81

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Lopsided

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

22%

Mostly Decisive

0%20%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.27

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.80

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.56

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

As Expected

0%37%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.19 · Well Above Noise: 0.19 and up.

Probability calibration

0.90

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.01

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.049

Within Noise

00.0950.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.10%	82.10%	54.29%	35.35%	21.33%
Dallas Cowboys	73.74%	73.74%	53.59%	36.78%	21.25%
Los Angeles Rams	86.74%	86.74%	55.57%	32.54%	15.88%
Miami Dolphins	56.85%	56.85%	30.55%	15.62%	8.33%
Denver Broncos	61.91%	61.91%	32.57%	16.19%	8.25%
New England Patriots	55.24%	55.24%	27.43%	12.55%	6.30%
Oakland Raiders	56.10%	56.10%	25.15%	10.42%	4.64%
Minnesota Vikings	54.88%	54.88%	22.99%	8.92%	3.23%
Washington Redskins	44.80%	44.80%	19.55%	6.37%	2.04%
Houston Oilers	21.87%	21.87%	8.95%	3.19%	1.31%
San Diego Chargers	15.50%	15.50%	6.19%	2.39%	1.07%
Chicago Bears	27.84%	27.84%	9.57%	3.21%	1.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.64%	15.64%	7.06%	2.66%	1.01%
Atlanta Falcons	24.27%	24.27%	9.03%	2.87%	0.87%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.49%	18.37%	6.22%	1.94%	0.71%
Green Bay Packers	21.01%	21.01%	6.69%	2.01%	0.63%
Detroit Lions	12.28%	12.28%	3.98%	1.30%	0.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	9.85%	8.36%	3.22%	1.06%	0.34%
New York Giants	14.63%	12.16%	4.10%	1.14%	0.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.13%	6.77%	2.27%	0.68%	0.25%
Seattle Seahawks	6.15%	5.16%	1.51%	0.45%	0.17%
New Orleans Saints	6.30%	5.07%	1.68%	0.51%	0.15%
New York Jets	5.22%	5.22%	1.54%	0.43%	0.14%
Baltimore Colts	9.94%	9.94%	2.29%	0.55%	0.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.99%	7.99%	1.70%	0.36%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	7.26%	5.20%	1.28%	0.27%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	3.51%	2.98%	0.62%	0.14%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.94%	1.99%	0.41%	0.10%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		53.6%0.07%	40.6%0.43%	36.5%0.88%	22.4%1.69%	31.3%1.15%	48.9%0.18%	21.8%0.54%	24.2%0.55%	44.0%0.10%	25.0%1.71%	15.2%0.72%	25.9%0.77%	35.4%0.29%
Buffalo Bills	46.4%0.07%		43.4%0.14%	31.0%0.34%	21.5%0.70%	29.1%0.38%	55.6%0.04%	18.3%0.24%	17.8%0.18%	48.8%0.04%	23.8%0.69%	12.0%0.24%	25.2%0.31%	33.8%0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	59.4%0.43%	56.6%0.14%		50.9%0.38%	29.7%1.44%	43.0%0.45%	66.9%0.13%	31.7%1.06%	34.1%1.03%	52.5%0.24%	39.1%1.53%	28.9%0.28%	40.7%0.70%	50.5%0.31%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	63.5%0.88%	69.0%0.34%	49.1%0.38%		31.0%3.46%	44.7%1.06%	61.3%0.29%	30.9%2.59%	34.1%2.60%	49.3%0.46%	37.4%3.52%	21.2%0.52%	38.4%1.73%	50.5%0.66%
Denver Broncos	77.6%1.69%	78.5%0.70%	70.3%1.44%	69.0%3.46%		63.7%3.83%	75.8%0.26%	49.7%4.17%	52.7%4.11%	72.1%0.94%	56.3%0.86%	40.6%2.74%	61.1%1.47%	72.8%0.61%
Houston Oilers	68.7%1.15%	70.9%0.38%	57.0%0.45%	55.3%1.06%	36.3%3.83%		65.7%0.36%	34.5%2.75%	40.5%2.64%	62.0%0.57%	43.8%4.17%	27.0%0.50%	46.7%1.90%	60.2%0.82%
Kansas City Chiefs	51.1%0.18%	44.4%0.04%	33.1%0.13%	38.7%0.29%	24.2%0.26%	34.3%0.36%		16.9%0.45%	23.4%0.46%	33.6%0.11%	25.4%0.27%	12.6%0.23%	22.9%0.11%	32.6%0.04%
Miami Dolphins	78.2%0.54%	81.7%0.24%	68.3%1.06%	69.1%2.59%	50.3%4.17%	65.5%2.75%	83.1%0.45%		56.8%0.35%	71.2%0.28%	59.3%4.64%	39.5%2.02%	60.2%1.91%	73.4%0.81%
New England Patriots	75.8%0.55%	82.2%0.18%	65.9%1.03%	65.9%2.60%	47.3%4.11%	59.5%2.64%	76.6%0.46%	43.2%0.35%		68.9%0.27%	53.6%4.50%	37.3%1.82%	56.1%1.99%	70.0%0.89%
New York Jets	56.0%0.10%	51.2%0.04%	47.5%0.24%	50.7%0.46%	27.9%0.94%	38.0%0.57%	66.4%0.11%	28.8%0.28%	31.1%0.27%		35.0%0.94%	19.0%0.42%	35.2%0.42%	42.7%0.16%
Oakland Raiders	75.0%1.71%	76.2%0.69%	60.9%1.53%	62.6%3.52%	43.7%0.86%	56.2%4.17%	74.6%0.27%	40.7%4.64%	46.4%4.50%	65.0%0.94%		33.7%2.93%	51.6%1.60%	61.0%0.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	84.8%0.72%	88.0%0.24%	71.1%0.28%	78.8%0.52%	59.4%2.74%	73.0%0.50%	87.4%0.23%	60.5%2.02%	62.7%1.82%	81.0%0.42%	66.3%2.93%		69.8%1.30%	76.0%0.60%
San Diego Chargers	74.1%0.77%	74.8%0.31%	59.3%0.70%	61.6%1.73%	38.9%1.47%	53.3%1.90%	77.1%0.11%	39.8%1.91%	43.9%1.99%	64.8%0.42%	48.4%1.60%	30.2%1.30%		67.7%0.22%
Seattle Seahawks	64.6%0.29%	66.2%0.14%	49.5%0.31%	49.5%0.66%	27.2%0.61%	39.8%0.82%	67.4%0.04%	26.6%0.81%	30.0%0.89%	57.3%0.16%	39.0%0.58%	24.0%0.60%	32.3%0.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		50.9%1.75%	20.6%4.37%	51.4%0.99%	53.3%1.46%	28.8%0.15%	43.5%1.83%	55.6%0.31%	55.6%2.12%	42.3%2.41%	65.1%0.39%	49.6%1.47%	62.9%0.74%	46.2%5.69%
Chicago Bears	49.1%1.75%		20.4%2.62%	53.3%0.27%	49.5%0.42%	34.2%0.70%	46.8%0.40%	59.1%0.43%	56.1%1.44%	45.2%1.46%	65.7%0.53%	48.6%0.90%	64.5%0.23%	46.2%3.40%
Dallas Cowboys	79.4%4.37%	79.6%2.62%		78.6%1.41%	81.5%2.28%	60.8%1.89%	75.6%2.88%	82.4%1.20%	84.3%1.65%	76.0%1.63%	88.6%1.27%	78.7%1.05%	87.9%1.09%	78.8%1.61%
Detroit Lions	48.6%0.99%	46.7%0.27%	21.4%1.41%		49.8%0.22%	26.8%0.35%	45.2%0.27%	56.7%0.25%	55.9%0.80%	44.0%0.79%	66.3%0.28%	50.6%0.45%	57.7%0.10%	44.6%1.82%
Green Bay Packers	46.7%1.46%	50.5%0.42%	18.5%2.28%	50.2%0.22%		25.5%0.67%	40.4%0.38%	48.9%0.36%	55.5%1.15%	37.9%1.11%	63.6%0.42%	46.4%0.76%	66.7%0.16%	42.4%2.70%
Los Angeles Rams	71.2%0.15%	65.8%0.70%	39.2%1.89%	73.2%0.35%	74.5%0.67%		64.0%0.80%	70.5%0.11%	75.7%0.88%	64.6%1.07%	84.9%0.14%	71.0%0.57%	86.1%0.30%	70.1%2.34%
Minnesota Vikings	56.5%1.83%	53.2%0.40%	24.4%2.88%	54.8%0.27%	59.6%0.38%	36.0%0.80%		60.9%0.42%	63.7%1.43%	49.2%1.50%	76.2%0.55%	54.7%0.94%	75.3%0.22%	52.6%3.44%
New Orleans Saints	44.4%0.31%	40.9%0.43%	17.6%1.20%	43.3%0.25%	51.1%0.36%	29.5%0.11%	39.1%0.42%		52.2%0.53%	36.9%0.58%	62.0%0.08%	46.1%0.41%	59.7%0.15%	40.7%1.48%
New York Giants	44.4%2.12%	43.9%1.44%	15.7%1.65%	44.1%0.80%	44.5%1.15%	24.3%0.88%	36.3%1.43%	47.8%0.53%		32.4%0.81%	60.7%0.61%	44.0%0.48%	61.2%0.51%	41.0%2.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	57.7%2.41%	54.8%1.46%	24.0%1.63%	56.0%0.79%	62.1%1.11%	35.4%1.07%	50.8%1.50%	63.1%0.58%	67.6%0.81%		74.4%0.70%	56.9%0.54%	70.9%0.65%	53.9%2.39%
San Francisco 49ers	34.9%0.39%	34.3%0.53%	11.4%1.27%	33.7%0.28%	36.4%0.42%	15.1%0.14%	23.8%0.55%	38.0%0.08%	39.3%0.61%	25.6%0.70%		35.2%0.42%	46.8%0.19%	29.5%1.68%
St. Louis Cardinals	50.4%1.47%	51.4%0.90%	21.3%1.05%	49.4%0.45%	53.6%0.76%	29.0%0.57%	45.3%0.94%	53.9%0.41%	56.0%0.48%	43.1%0.54%	64.8%0.42%		64.7%0.42%	49.3%1.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37.1%0.74%	35.5%0.23%	12.1%1.09%	42.3%0.10%	33.3%0.16%	13.9%0.30%	24.7%0.22%	40.3%0.15%	38.8%0.51%	29.1%0.65%	53.2%0.19%	35.3%0.42%		33.5%1.52%
Washington Redskins	53.8%5.69%	53.8%3.40%	21.2%1.61%	55.4%1.82%	57.6%2.70%	29.9%2.34%	47.4%3.44%	59.3%1.48%	59.0%2.23%	46.1%2.39%	70.5%1.68%	50.7%1.45%	66.5%1.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			41.2%0.24%	37.6%0.60%	19.8%2.26%	28.9%0.73%	47.9%0.07%				26.3%2.33%	15.1%3.03%	26.9%0.54%	37.8%0.13%
Buffalo Bills			42.2%0.04%	32.5%0.16%	19.8%0.72%	30.5%0.20%	50.0%0.01%				21.4%0.72%	14.5%0.91%	25.2%0.16%	36.5%0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	58.8%0.24%	57.8%0.04%			28.5%1.77%		57.1%0.04%	28.2%1.37%	31.5%1.32%	47.4%0.11%	36.1%1.45%		43.1%0.30%	55.4%0.11%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.4%0.60%	67.5%0.16%			28.4%4.30%		65.4%0.11%	28.4%3.91%	31.6%3.74%	56.3%0.30%	36.5%4.06%		38.8%0.90%	52.3%0.28%
Denver Broncos	80.2%2.26%	80.2%0.72%	71.5%1.77%	71.6%4.30%		65.0%5.56%		49.0%13.72%	53.9%13.43%	73.4%1.14%		39.0%19.02%
Houston Oilers	71.1%0.73%	69.5%0.20%			35.0%5.56%		70.0%0.13%	35.0%4.51%	39.1%4.23%	59.1%0.38%	44.2%4.69%		46.8%1.04%	59.5%0.40%
Kansas City Chiefs	52.1%0.07%	50.0%0.01%	42.9%0.04%	34.6%0.11%		30.0%0.13%		18.4%0.46%	20.0%0.44%	55.2%0.03%		12.8%0.70%
Miami Dolphins			71.8%1.37%	71.6%3.91%	51.0%13.72%	65.0%4.51%	81.6%0.46%				59.0%12.41%	39.3%16.12%	61.7%3.20%	72.1%1.16%
New England Patriots			68.5%1.32%	68.4%3.74%	46.1%13.43%	60.9%4.23%	80.0%0.44%				54.5%12.11%	35.6%15.73%	58.9%3.13%	71.1%1.11%
New York Jets			52.6%0.11%	43.7%0.30%	26.6%1.14%	40.9%0.38%	44.8%0.03%				32.4%1.22%	19.7%1.67%	39.6%0.29%	59.4%0.06%
Oakland Raiders	73.7%2.33%	78.6%0.72%	63.9%1.45%	63.5%4.06%		55.8%4.69%		41.0%12.41%	45.5%12.11%	67.6%1.22%		31.2%17.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	84.9%3.03%	85.5%0.91%			61.0%19.02%		87.2%0.70%	60.7%16.12%	64.4%15.73%	80.3%1.67%	68.8%17.12%		71.2%5.95%	79.5%1.85%
San Diego Chargers	73.1%0.54%	74.8%0.16%	56.9%0.30%	61.2%0.90%		53.2%1.04%		38.3%3.20%	41.1%3.13%	60.4%0.29%		28.8%5.95%
Seattle Seahawks	62.2%0.13%	63.5%0.05%	44.6%0.11%	47.7%0.28%		40.5%0.40%		27.9%1.16%	28.9%1.11%	40.6%0.06%		20.5%1.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		47.5%1.97%	19.9%8.25%	48.4%0.82%	48.4%1.58%		40.9%4.66%		56.8%0.96%	43.3%1.26%		49.6%0.54%	68.2%0.51%	45.0%3.72%
Chicago Bears	52.5%1.97%		20.9%9.03%			26.4%7.53%		57.0%0.41%	56.4%1.31%	44.7%1.60%	70.4%0.39%	52.6%0.70%		47.6%4.89%
Dallas Cowboys	80.1%8.25%	79.1%9.03%		80.3%4.01%	82.4%6.50%	58.1%23.21%	74.7%16.52%	84.0%1.77%			88.2%1.76%		88.9%2.69%
Detroit Lions	51.6%0.82%		19.7%4.01%			27.6%3.48%		52.5%0.18%	57.6%0.50%	38.4%0.73%	63.1%0.17%	45.2%0.30%		43.4%2.08%
Green Bay Packers	51.6%1.58%		17.6%6.50%			24.2%5.70%		53.4%0.28%	52.8%0.94%	41.6%1.04%	61.8%0.35%	49.8%0.65%		43.5%3.98%
Los Angeles Rams		73.6%7.53%	41.9%23.21%	72.4%3.48%	75.8%5.70%		67.0%13.00%		79.0%4.92%	68.0%6.75%		74.6%3.74%	83.6%2.17%	71.9%16.25%
Minnesota Vikings	59.1%4.66%		25.3%16.52%			33.0%13.00%		63.6%0.88%	63.5%2.90%	51.8%3.32%	73.4%1.02%	56.2%1.93%		54.5%10.66%
New Orleans Saints		43.0%0.41%	16.0%1.77%	47.5%0.18%	46.6%0.28%		36.4%0.88%		51.0%0.15%	39.7%0.21%		42.3%0.14%	64.6%0.10%	42.3%0.94%
New York Giants	43.2%0.96%	43.6%1.31%		42.4%0.50%	47.2%0.94%	21.0%4.92%	36.5%2.90%	49.0%0.15%			64.5%0.20%		60.7%0.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	56.7%1.26%	55.3%1.60%		61.6%0.73%	58.4%1.04%	32.0%6.75%	48.2%3.32%	60.3%0.21%			68.8%0.29%		71.4%0.43%
San Francisco 49ers		29.6%0.39%	11.8%1.76%	36.9%0.17%	38.2%0.35%		26.6%1.02%		35.5%0.20%	31.2%0.29%		30.1%0.13%	45.9%0.11%	30.4%0.80%
St. Louis Cardinals	50.4%0.54%	47.4%0.70%		54.8%0.30%	50.2%0.65%	25.4%3.74%	43.8%1.93%	57.7%0.14%			69.9%0.13%		67.4%0.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31.8%0.51%		11.1%2.69%			16.4%2.17%		35.4%0.10%	39.3%0.27%	28.6%0.43%	54.1%0.11%	32.6%0.22%		32.6%1.49%
Washington Redskins	55.0%3.72%	52.4%4.89%		56.6%2.08%	56.5%3.98%	28.1%16.25%	45.5%10.66%	57.7%0.94%			69.6%0.80%		67.4%1.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		100.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%	45.0%0.06%	26.6%0.38%	40.4%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.29%	26.9%0.23%	57.1%<0.01%	22.3%0.31%	16.6%0.79%	29.5%0.08%	23.5%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	29.2%0.02%	13.5%0.11%	40.0%0.03%		23.4%0.08%	24.6%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	26.6%0.08%	17.8%0.21%	36.4%0.01%	80.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.7%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%		51.0%0.05%	29.8%0.37%	47.4%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%	28.4%0.34%	30.3%0.29%	57.1%0.01%	34.8%0.22%	22.9%0.80%	36.8%0.07%	43.8%0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	55.0%0.06%	70.8%0.02%	49.0%0.05%		30.8%0.95%	46.0%0.19%	62.5%<0.01%	30.1%0.96%	31.3%0.83%	60.7%0.06%	38.1%0.72%	24.8%2.18%	40.4%0.14%	50.0%0.04%
Denver Broncos	73.4%0.38%	86.5%0.11%	70.2%0.37%	69.2%0.95%		62.9%1.48%	75.9%0.05%	48.3%5.66%	52.9%4.83%	69.0%0.26%	57.3%5.05%	39.1%12.11%	60.0%1.07%	73.5%0.25%
Houston Oilers	59.6%0.10%	60.0%0.03%	52.6%0.08%	54.0%0.19%	37.1%1.48%		43.8%0.02%	35.7%1.34%	39.4%1.18%	56.5%0.06%	44.7%0.94%	27.0%3.27%	51.0%0.20%	58.8%0.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	24.1%0.05%	56.2%0.02%		19.7%0.07%	30.4%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	26.3%0.04%	19.7%0.15%	30.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	73.3%0.29%	76.6%0.08%	71.6%0.34%	69.9%0.96%	51.7%5.66%	64.3%1.34%	80.3%0.07%		55.3%4.88%	71.8%0.17%	58.7%3.85%	40.7%11.75%	60.3%0.93%	71.1%0.23%
New England Patriots	73.1%0.23%	75.4%0.07%	69.7%0.29%	68.7%0.83%	47.1%4.83%	60.6%1.18%	69.6%0.06%	44.7%4.88%		68.5%0.17%	54.8%3.33%	36.0%10.56%	58.6%0.81%	70.4%0.20%
New York Jets	42.9%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%	39.3%0.06%	31.0%0.26%	43.5%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	28.2%0.17%	31.5%0.17%		38.9%0.20%	18.1%0.55%	29.4%0.05%	57.1%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	77.7%0.31%	73.4%0.08%	65.2%0.22%	61.9%0.72%	42.7%5.05%	55.3%0.94%	73.7%0.04%	41.3%3.85%	45.2%3.33%	61.1%0.20%		32.4%9.44%	56.1%0.80%	59.8%0.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	83.4%0.79%	82.2%0.21%	77.1%0.80%	75.2%2.18%	60.9%12.11%	73.0%3.27%	80.3%0.15%	59.3%11.75%	64.0%10.56%	81.9%0.55%	67.6%9.44%		71.7%1.99%	79.9%0.48%
San Diego Chargers	70.5%0.08%	63.6%0.01%	63.2%0.07%	59.6%0.14%	40.0%1.07%	49.0%0.20%	70.0%0.01%	39.7%0.93%	41.4%0.81%	70.6%0.05%	43.9%0.80%	28.3%1.99%		36.4%0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	76.5%0.02%	20.0%<0.01%	56.2%0.02%	50.0%0.04%	26.5%0.25%	41.2%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	28.9%0.23%	29.6%0.20%	42.9%<0.01%	40.2%0.17%	20.1%0.48%	63.6%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		43.3%0.36%	20.8%2.80%	47.1%0.15%	50.2%0.24%	28.4%3.15%	42.0%1.03%	54.5%0.04%	56.4%0.15%	37.9%0.24%	68.6%0.03%	47.5%0.10%	69.1%0.07%	45.2%0.65%
Chicago Bears	56.7%0.36%		23.1%2.97%	48.3%0.15%	54.8%0.20%	27.5%3.61%	48.0%0.89%	59.1%0.09%	55.8%0.15%	44.4%0.28%	67.9%0.05%	50.0%0.11%	76.2%0.04%	50.6%0.67%
Dallas Cowboys	79.2%2.80%	76.9%2.97%		79.0%1.25%	77.5%2.11%	58.4%23.16%	72.6%7.59%	83.6%0.46%	82.2%1.32%	73.5%2.48%	89.3%0.42%	79.2%1.11%	85.8%0.56%	76.1%7.36%
Detroit Lions	52.9%0.15%	51.7%0.15%	21.0%1.25%		55.7%0.07%	28.0%1.49%	42.2%0.35%	40.0%0.03%	59.7%0.07%	51.7%0.12%	79.2%0.02%	51.6%0.03%	78.9%0.02%	47.3%0.23%
Green Bay Packers	49.8%0.24%	45.2%0.20%	22.5%2.11%	44.3%0.07%		25.1%2.47%	35.1%0.60%	46.5%0.04%	48.5%0.10%	42.1%0.20%	71.4%0.03%	38.8%0.10%	63.0%0.03%	47.2%0.49%
Los Angeles Rams	71.6%3.15%	72.5%3.61%	41.6%23.16%	72.0%1.49%	74.9%2.47%		65.4%8.80%	75.0%0.60%	78.2%1.35%	67.5%2.11%	82.1%0.37%	73.2%0.98%	82.5%0.63%	71.3%6.84%
Minnesota Vikings	58.0%1.03%	52.0%0.89%	27.4%7.59%	57.8%0.35%	64.9%0.60%	34.6%8.80%		58.5%0.17%	61.3%0.43%	54.0%0.69%	68.1%0.17%	54.0%0.32%	64.9%0.13%	57.0%1.81%
New Orleans Saints	45.5%0.04%	40.9%0.09%	16.4%0.46%	60.0%0.03%	53.5%0.04%	25.0%0.60%	41.5%0.17%		50.0%0.03%	34.9%0.04%	87.5%<0.01%	29.6%0.03%	46.7%0.01%	49.6%0.13%
New York Giants	43.6%0.15%	44.2%0.15%	17.8%1.32%	40.3%0.07%	51.5%0.10%	21.8%1.35%	38.7%0.43%	50.0%0.03%		36.2%0.10%	68.4%0.02%	37.5%0.05%	75.0%0.02%	45.2%0.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	62.1%0.24%	55.6%0.28%	26.5%2.48%	48.3%0.12%	57.9%0.20%	32.5%2.11%	46.0%0.69%	65.1%0.04%	63.8%0.10%		65.1%0.04%	56.4%0.08%	62.3%0.05%	51.9%0.61%
San Francisco 49ers	31.4%0.03%	32.1%0.05%	10.7%0.42%	20.8%0.02%	28.6%0.03%	17.9%0.37%	31.9%0.17%	12.5%<0.01%	31.6%0.02%	34.9%0.04%		36.4%0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	32.6%0.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	52.5%0.10%	50.0%0.11%	20.8%1.11%	48.4%0.03%	61.2%0.10%	26.8%0.98%	46.0%0.32%	70.4%0.03%	62.5%0.05%	43.6%0.08%	63.6%0.01%		51.9%0.03%	47.2%0.27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.9%0.07%	23.8%0.04%	14.2%0.56%	21.1%0.02%	37.0%0.03%	17.5%0.63%	35.1%0.13%	53.3%0.01%	25.0%0.02%	37.7%0.05%	62.5%<0.01%	48.1%0.03%		28.0%0.11%
Washington Redskins	54.8%0.65%	49.4%0.67%	23.9%7.36%	52.7%0.23%	52.8%0.49%	28.7%6.84%	43.0%1.81%	50.4%0.13%	54.8%0.31%	48.1%0.61%	67.4%0.09%	52.8%0.27%	72.0%0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	40.0%0.01%	43.5%0.02%	14.9%0.20%	27.3%0.01%	36.8%0.02%	26.7%0.17%	43.5%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	10.7%0.06%		0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.04%	27.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5%0.02%	40.0%0.03%	26.9%0.22%	55.6%<0.01%	64.7%0.02%	34.1%0.21%	39.5%0.08%	33.3%<0.01%	63.6%0.01%	38.1%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	62.5%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	44.2%0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	51.8%0.06%	47.4%0.06%	25.3%0.71%	54.5%0.02%	54.0%0.05%	37.1%0.64%	50.6%0.16%	50.0%0.01%	44.0%0.03%	49.0%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	57.9%0.02%	80.0%<0.01%	49.3%0.13%
Denver Broncos	69.2%0.46%	67.0%0.52%	39.8%5.93%	68.7%0.21%	72.7%0.33%	49.2%5.30%	62.8%1.44%	71.3%0.09%	74.6%0.17%	58.6%0.40%	80.4%0.05%	61.1%0.17%	89.5%0.06%	66.5%1.06%
Houston Oilers	53.5%0.10%	60.5%0.09%	30.1%1.19%	63.9%0.04%	47.5%0.06%	38.4%1.02%	54.9%0.31%	65.2%0.02%	64.3%0.04%	40.2%0.09%	66.7%<0.01%	55.6%0.03%	70.0%0.01%	64.2%0.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	26.3%0.04%		50.0%<0.01%	8.8%0.03%	28.6%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		62.5%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	70.5%0.44%	66.8%0.50%	43.5%5.75%	61.7%0.19%	67.6%0.31%	52.4%5.14%	63.9%1.41%	71.7%0.09%	72.5%0.18%	62.2%0.41%	76.2%0.04%	61.2%0.15%	77.8%0.05%	68.4%0.96%
New England Patriots	66.5%0.39%	66.0%0.38%	39.6%4.61%	69.4%0.16%	67.6%0.26%	48.7%4.06%	60.6%1.10%	68.8%0.06%	67.9%0.13%	59.0%0.35%	78.8%0.03%	64.5%0.14%	84.3%0.05%	64.8%0.82%
New York Jets	73.3%0.01%	52.9%0.02%	21.7%0.16%	40.0%0.01%	33.3%0.01%	27.1%0.14%	43.6%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.02%
Oakland Raiders	63.9%0.29%	65.1%0.34%	33.4%3.86%	58.9%0.14%	62.9%0.19%	42.6%3.43%	55.8%0.89%	61.7%0.05%	64.8%0.10%	54.6%0.26%	70.4%0.03%	65.0%0.14%	72.7%0.03%	61.8%0.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	77.0%0.99%	75.6%1.16%	50.3%13.01%	72.1%0.47%	74.7%0.72%	58.7%11.43%	71.3%3.21%	75.0%0.16%	77.9%0.42%	70.9%0.97%	87.1%0.08%	78.1%0.37%	84.6%0.14%	75.1%2.23%
San Diego Chargers	61.3%0.06%	60.2%0.08%	33.4%0.86%	48.5%0.03%	66.0%0.05%	44.4%0.80%	52.6%0.19%	55.6%<0.01%	56.8%0.04%	57.6%0.06%	66.7%0.01%	64.0%0.03%	80.0%<0.01%	63.9%0.15%
Seattle Seahawks	56.2%0.02%	26.7%0.01%	24.1%0.17%	44.4%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	48.5%0.13%	40.0%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	35.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	48.3%0.03%
Atlanta Falcons															60.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%	48.2%0.06%	30.8%0.46%	46.5%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	29.5%0.44%	33.5%0.39%	26.7%0.01%	36.1%0.29%	23.0%0.99%	38.7%0.06%	43.8%0.02%
Chicago Bears															56.5%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	60.0%0.03%	52.6%0.06%	33.0%0.52%	39.5%0.09%	50.0%<0.01%	33.2%0.50%	34.0%0.38%	47.1%0.02%	34.9%0.34%	24.4%1.16%	39.8%0.08%	73.3%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys															85.1%0.20%	89.3%0.06%	73.1%0.22%	74.7%0.71%	60.2%5.93%	69.9%1.19%	73.7%0.04%	56.5%5.75%	60.4%4.61%	78.3%0.16%	66.6%3.86%	49.7%13.01%	66.6%0.86%	75.9%0.17%
Detroit Lions															72.7%0.01%		44.4%<0.01%	45.5%0.02%	31.3%0.21%	36.1%0.04%		38.3%0.19%	30.6%0.16%	60.0%0.01%	41.1%0.14%	27.9%0.47%	51.5%0.03%	55.6%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers															63.2%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	35.3%0.02%	46.0%0.05%	27.3%0.33%	52.5%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	32.4%0.31%	32.4%0.26%	66.7%0.01%	37.1%0.19%	25.3%0.72%	34.0%0.05%	71.4%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															73.3%0.17%	75.0%0.04%	65.9%0.21%	62.9%0.64%	50.8%5.30%	61.6%1.02%	91.2%0.03%	47.6%5.14%	51.3%4.06%	72.9%0.14%	57.4%3.43%	41.3%11.43%	55.6%0.80%	51.5%0.13%
Minnesota Vikings															56.5%0.05%	72.7%0.01%	60.5%0.08%	49.4%0.16%	37.2%1.44%	45.1%0.31%	71.4%<0.01%	36.1%1.41%	39.4%1.10%	56.4%0.04%	44.2%0.89%	28.7%3.21%	47.4%0.19%	60.0%0.04%
New Orleans Saints															50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	28.7%0.09%	34.8%0.02%		28.3%0.09%	31.2%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%	38.3%0.05%	25.0%0.16%	44.4%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
New York Giants															50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.01%	56.0%0.03%	25.4%0.17%	35.7%0.04%		27.5%0.18%	32.1%0.13%	28.6%<0.01%	35.2%0.10%	22.1%0.42%	43.2%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															61.5%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	61.9%0.02%	51.0%0.05%	41.4%0.40%	59.8%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	37.8%0.41%	41.0%0.35%	44.4%<0.01%	45.4%0.26%	29.1%0.97%	42.4%0.06%	64.3%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers															100.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	19.6%0.05%	33.3%<0.01%		23.8%0.04%	21.2%0.03%		29.6%0.03%	12.9%0.08%	33.3%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals															80.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	42.1%0.02%	38.9%0.17%	44.4%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	38.8%0.15%	35.5%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	35.0%0.14%	21.9%0.37%	36.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	10.5%0.06%	30.0%0.01%		22.2%0.05%	15.7%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.03%	15.4%0.14%	20.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															75.0%0.04%	85.7%0.01%	55.8%0.04%	50.7%0.13%	33.5%1.06%	35.8%0.19%	37.5%<0.01%	31.6%0.96%	35.2%0.82%	47.8%0.02%	38.2%0.67%	24.9%2.23%	36.1%0.15%	51.7%0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	81.12%	47.59%	26.39%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	66.18%	45.74%	25.38%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	70.75%	37.67%	17.62%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	100.00%	58.28%	22.16%	9.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	100.00%	40.64%	17.54%	8.37%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	71.03%	24.57%	11.59%	5.97%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	24.21%	7.96%	2.66%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	49.69%	15.22%	4.29%	1.62%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	28.97%	10.33%	2.96%	1.22%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Atlanta Falcons	50.31%	8.69%	2.48%	0.79%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins
Houston Oilers		29.0%100.00%
Miami Dolphins	71.0%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		50.3%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	49.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos				44.2%71.03%	31.9%28.97%
Houston Oilers				35.7%28.97%
Miami Dolphins					34.6%71.03%
New England Patriots	55.8%71.03%	64.3%28.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.1%28.97%		65.4%71.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		17.3%50.31%
Dallas Cowboys	82.7%50.31%			79.5%49.69%
Los Angeles Rams				72.1%50.31%	69.4%49.69%
Minnesota Vikings		20.5%49.69%	27.9%50.31%
Philadelphia Eagles			30.6%49.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos		66.1%3.27%	54.2%10.72%	45.8%5.98%	33.0%20.67%
Houston Oilers	33.9%3.27%				26.2%7.06%
Miami Dolphins	45.8%10.72%			48.2%13.85%
New England Patriots	54.2%5.98%		51.8%13.85%		30.6%38.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	67.0%20.67%	73.8%7.06%		69.4%38.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons			25.8%6.28%	35.8%2.41%
Dallas Cowboys			51.2%57.34%	78.0%11.61%	75.5%12.17%
Los Angeles Rams	74.2%6.28%	48.8%57.34%		70.4%7.13%
Minnesota Vikings	64.2%2.41%	22.0%11.61%	29.6%7.13%		57.3%3.05%
Philadelphia Eagles		24.5%12.17%		42.7%3.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos	65.5%0.47%	41.1%8.33%	50.2%6.62%	63.6%1.42%	58.2%0.71%
Houston Oilers	65.2%0.07%	35.3%1.39%	42.8%1.15%	54.6%0.23%	54.0%0.13%
Miami Dolphins	71.0%0.27%	45.1%5.55%	54.3%4.36%	65.6%0.91%	62.4%0.51%
New England Patriots	63.9%0.53%	38.3%10.51%	47.4%8.38%	60.9%1.76%	58.5%0.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.0%1.15%	49.3%21.81%	57.7%17.16%	71.4%3.65%	65.9%1.97%
Atlanta Falcons						34.5%0.47%	34.8%0.07%	29.0%0.27%	36.1%0.53%	29.0%1.15%
Dallas Cowboys						58.9%8.33%	64.7%1.39%	54.9%5.55%	61.7%10.51%	50.7%21.81%
Los Angeles Rams						49.8%6.62%	57.2%1.15%	45.7%4.36%	52.6%8.38%	42.3%17.16%
Minnesota Vikings						36.4%1.42%	45.4%0.23%	34.4%0.91%	39.1%1.76%	28.6%3.65%
Philadelphia Eagles						41.8%0.71%	46.0%0.13%	37.6%0.51%	41.5%0.98%	34.1%1.97%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 26.39% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

51.30%

Win Prob

82.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

61.67%

Win Prob

51.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

41.91%

Win Prob

50.70%

Pittsburgh Steelers 25.38% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

70.20%

Win Prob

65.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

58.36%

Win Prob

69.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

42.37%

Win Prob

49.30%

Los Angeles Rams 17.62% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.28%

Win Prob

72.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

74.30%

Win Prob

48.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

41.18%

Win Prob

42.27%

New England Patriots 9.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

68.02%

Win Prob

55.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

53.03%

Win Prob

30.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.35%

Win Prob

38.33%

Denver Broncos 8.37% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

77.24%

Win Prob

44.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

38.94%

Win Prob

33.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

40.97%

Win Prob

41.15%

Miami Dolphins 5.97% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.03%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.60%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

57.64%

Win Prob

48.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.94%

Win Prob

45.14%

Minnesota Vikings 2.66% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

57.93%

Win Prob

27.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

32.04%

Win Prob

21.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.23%

Win Prob

28.62%

Philadelphia Eagles 1.62% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.69%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

69.60%

Win Prob

24.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

41.43%

Win Prob

34.06%

Houston Oilers 1.22% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.97%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

62.55%

Win Prob

26.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

40.44%

Win Prob

42.76%

Atlanta Falcons 0.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

17.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.19%

Win Prob

25.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

42.19%

Win Prob

29.00%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1978-09-03	Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1481.98	1525.37	51.83%	47.66%	+12.54	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-10	1494.52	1593.39	28.68%	70.89%	-9.75	1-1
1978-09-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-24	1484.77	1520.65	52.91%	46.58%	-16.08	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-14	1468.69	1378.05	54.44%	45.05%	-13.07	1-3
1978-10-01	New York Giants	W 23-20	1455.62	1487.68	53.46%	46.03%	+8.57	2-3
1978-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-31	1464.19	1634.90	21.03%	78.62%	-11.08	2-4
1978-10-15	Detroit Lions	W 14-0	1453.11	1404.17	64.65%	34.87%	+14.04	3-4
1978-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1467.15	1431.55	46.54%	52.95%	+9.85	4-4
1978-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-7	1477.00	1641.85	34.87%	64.66%	+19.63	5-4
1978-11-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-10	1496.63	1410.53	69.36%	30.20%	+10.77	6-4
1978-11-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1507.40	1450.76	49.56%	49.93%	+9.29	7-4
1978-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1516.69	1443.62	51.92%	47.57%	-13.66	7-5
1978-11-26	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1503.03	1431.85	67.51%	32.03%	+5.97	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-37	1509.00	1415.61	54.83%	44.66%	-32.26	8-6
1978-12-10	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1476.74	1499.14	54.84%	44.65%	+8.32	9-6
1978-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-42	1485.06	1447.92	46.76%	52.73%	-23.03	9-7
1978-09-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-38	1548.05	1595.81	35.03%	64.50%	-23.22	0-1
1978-09-10	Miami Dolphins	L 0-42	1524.83	1531.98	57.00%	42.50%	-39.67	0-2
1978-09-18	@ New England Patriots	W 34-27	1485.16	1551.68	32.62%	66.92%	+19.00	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1504.16	1390.95	57.63%	41.87%	-16.37	1-3
1978-10-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1487.79	1495.55	56.91%	42.58%	-10.59	1-4
1978-10-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-17	1477.20	1434.19	47.60%	51.89%	+20.10	2-4
1978-10-15	New York Jets	L 10-33	1497.30	1426.09	67.52%	32.03%	-34.74	2-5
1978-10-22	Denver Broncos	W 7-6	1462.56	1592.67	39.52%	59.99%	+6.44	3-5
1978-10-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 8-26	1469.00	1578.87	27.40%	72.18%	-12.51	3-6
1978-11-06	Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1456.49	1569.23	41.93%	57.57%	+12.37	4-6
1978-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1468.86	1453.89	43.60%	55.89%	+10.39	5-6
1978-11-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1479.25	1475.27	58.56%	40.94%	-28.81	5-7
1978-11-26	New England Patriots	L 14-35	1450.44	1611.27	35.39%	64.13%	-17.44	5-8
1978-12-03	@ New York Jets	L 16-24	1433.00	1481.40	34.94%	64.58%	-10.63	5-9
1978-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-35	1422.37	1671.16	14.54%	85.18%	-7.33	5-10
1978-12-17	Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1415.04	1376.25	63.31%	36.21%	-17.98	5-11
1978-09-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1415.51	1570.29	36.19%	63.33%	-12.91	0-1
1978-09-10	New York Jets	L 20-21	1402.60	1432.56	53.76%	45.73%	-5.78	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1396.82	1571.65	20.64%	79.01%	-5.87	0-3
1978-09-24	Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1390.95	1504.16	41.87%	57.63%	+16.38	1-3
1978-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-13	1407.33	1416.18	56.76%	42.74%	+17.79	2-3
1978-10-08	@ New York Jets	L 14-45	1425.12	1399.05	45.18%	54.31%	-27.04	2-4
1978-10-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1398.08	1520.21	26.03%	73.57%	-7.40	2-5
1978-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 5-0	1390.68	1439.31	51.08%	48.41%	+11.63	3-5
1978-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-41	1402.31	1485.37	30.57%	68.99%	-15.07	3-6
1978-11-05	New England Patriots	L 10-14	1387.24	1612.55	27.45%	72.13%	-5.90	3-7
1978-11-12	Miami Dolphins	L 24-25	1381.34	1603.96	27.76%	71.82%	-2.99	3-8
1978-11-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-31	1378.35	1395.56	39.12%	60.39%	-19.27	3-9
1978-11-26	New York Giants	W 41-17	1359.08	1445.42	45.67%	53.83%	+28.32	4-9
1978-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-14	1387.40	1390.55	41.06%	58.44%	-8.83	4-10
1978-12-10	@ New England Patriots	L 24-26	1378.57	1617.70	15.24%	84.47%	-2.32	4-11
1978-12-17	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-14	1376.25	1415.04	36.21%	63.31%	+17.98	5-11
1978-09-03	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1500.90	1503.66	57.62%	41.88%	+11.92	1-0
1978-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1512.82	1469.10	47.70%	51.79%	+9.63	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-0	1522.45	1466.39	49.48%	50.01%	+23.42	3-0
1978-09-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-24	1545.87	1520.19	61.55%	37.97%	-13.21	3-1
1978-10-01	Oakland Raiders	L 19-25	1532.66	1584.08	50.68%	48.81%	-13.34	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1519.32	1492.77	45.25%	54.25%	-15.38	3-3
1978-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-16	1503.94	1582.64	31.10%	68.45%	-10.03	3-4
1978-10-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-33	1493.91	1395.37	55.56%	43.93%	-22.33	3-5
1978-10-29	Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1471.58	1413.98	65.78%	33.75%	-14.12	3-6
1978-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 29-31	1457.46	1444.82	59.76%	39.75%	-9.07	3-7
1978-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1448.39	1574.53	25.59%	74.01%	-4.77	3-8
1978-11-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-7	1443.62	1516.69	47.57%	51.92%	+13.67	4-8
1978-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-3	1457.29	1414.83	63.80%	35.73%	+12.74	5-8
1978-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-40	1470.03	1474.80	40.83%	58.67%	-25.22	5-9
1978-12-10	Green Bay Packers	W 14-0	1444.81	1479.58	53.07%	46.42%	+18.66	6-9
1978-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1463.47	1490.82	37.74%	61.77%	+13.27	7-9
1978-09-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1537.98	1444.00	70.31%	29.25%	-7.54	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1530.44	1512.45	44.03%	55.47%	-8.20	0-2
1978-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-28	1522.24	1590.62	48.24%	51.25%	-25.92	0-3
1978-09-24	New Orleans Saints	L 18-20	1496.32	1405.29	69.96%	29.61%	-10.62	0-4
1978-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-28	1485.70	1438.38	48.22%	51.27%	-20.73	0-5
1978-10-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1464.97	1565.89	28.44%	71.13%	-14.01	0-6
1978-10-15	New England Patriots	L 3-10	1450.96	1570.72	40.95%	58.55%	-11.65	0-7
1978-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-5	1439.31	1390.68	48.41%	51.08%	-11.64	0-8
1978-10-29	Houston Oilers	W 28-13	1427.67	1548.99	40.74%	58.77%	+24.44	1-8
1978-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-22	1452.11	1468.64	39.21%	60.30%	-12.65	1-9
1978-11-13	Oakland Raiders	L 21-34	1439.46	1574.89	38.79%	60.72%	-15.04	1-10
1978-11-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-7	1424.42	1643.78	16.77%	82.93%	-1.80	1-11
1978-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1422.62	1557.71	24.62%	74.99%	-7.01	1-12
1978-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-7	1415.61	1509.00	44.66%	54.83%	+32.26	2-12
1978-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-19	1447.87	1622.66	20.64%	79.01%	+8.47	3-12
1978-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 48-16	1456.34	1507.02	50.79%	48.70%	+29.60	4-12
1978-09-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1494.51	1487.04	59.04%	40.46%	+17.94	1-0
1978-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-10	1512.45	1530.44	55.47%	44.03%	+8.20	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1520.65	1484.77	46.58%	52.91%	+16.07	3-0
1978-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-15	1536.72	1616.54	30.96%	68.59%	-8.15	3-1
1978-10-01	Houston Oilers	L 13-16	1528.57	1516.01	59.75%	39.76%	-11.11	3-2
1978-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-16	1517.46	1408.34	57.06%	42.44%	+12.90	4-2
1978-10-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-34	1530.36	1645.98	41.53%	57.97%	-19.97	4-3
1978-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-17	1510.39	1363.33	62.30%	37.22%	-25.02	4-4
1978-10-29	Buffalo Bills	W 41-20	1485.37	1402.31	68.99%	30.57%	+15.07	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-14	1500.44	1524.55	38.18%	61.33%	-8.21	5-5
1978-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 7-19	1492.23	1579.55	45.53%	53.97%	-16.96	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 45-24	1475.27	1479.25	40.94%	58.56%	+28.82	6-6
1978-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-19	1504.09	1638.56	38.92%	60.59%	+21.57	7-6
1978-12-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-47	1525.66	1460.43	50.80%	48.69%	-26.17	7-7
1978-12-10	New York Jets	W 37-34	1499.49	1492.03	59.04%	40.46%	+7.53	8-7
1978-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-48	1507.02	1456.34	48.70%	50.79%	-29.60	8-8
1978-09-04	Baltimore Colts	W 38-0	1595.81	1548.05	64.50%	35.03%	+23.22	1-0
1978-09-10	@ New York Giants	W 34-24	1619.03	1465.29	63.19%	36.33%	+12.36	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-27	1631.39	1603.15	45.49%	54.00%	-17.63	2-1
1978-09-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-12	1613.76	1452.30	77.71%	21.92%	+7.07	3-1
1978-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 5-9	1620.83	1578.81	47.46%	52.03%	-10.20	3-2
1978-10-08	New York Giants	W 24-3	1610.63	1479.11	74.60%	25.00%	+12.32	4-2
1978-10-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-21	1622.95	1414.09	70.20%	29.37%	+5.47	5-2
1978-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-7	1628.42	1510.27	73.12%	26.47%	+7.53	6-2
1978-10-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-21	1635.95	1541.22	70.40%	29.16%	-25.05	6-3
1978-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-23	1610.90	1591.37	44.25%	55.25%	-12.58	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 42-14	1598.32	1497.31	55.91%	43.58%	+24.79	7-4
1978-11-19	New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1623.11	1441.47	79.65%	20.01%	+9.62	8-4
1978-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 37-10	1632.73	1537.46	70.47%	29.10%	+16.26	9-4
1978-12-03	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1648.99	1628.71	60.81%	38.70%	+11.01	10-4
1978-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-13	1660.00	1523.00	60.93%	38.58%	+17.60	11-4
1978-12-17	@ New York Jets	W 30-7	1677.60	1484.50	68.27%	31.28%	+16.14	12-4
1978-09-03	Oakland Raiders	W 14-6	1580.22	1588.54	56.83%	42.66%	+12.97	1-0
1978-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-12	1593.19	1531.81	50.24%	49.25%	-9.35	1-1
1978-09-17	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1583.84	1507.93	68.11%	31.44%	+12.19	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1596.03	1425.16	65.45%	34.08%	+8.98	3-1
1978-10-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-7	1605.01	1437.51	78.31%	21.33%	+10.52	4-1
1978-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-23	1615.53	1456.52	63.89%	35.63%	-32.89	4-2
1978-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 16-7	1582.64	1503.94	68.45%	31.10%	+10.03	5-2
1978-10-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-7	1592.67	1462.56	59.99%	39.52%	-6.44	5-3
1978-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1586.23	1452.08	60.54%	38.97%	+7.26	6-3
1978-11-05	New York Jets	L 28-31	1593.49	1457.87	75.04%	24.56%	-13.94	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-7	1579.55	1492.23	53.97%	45.53%	+16.95	7-4
1978-11-19	Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1596.50	1472.51	73.77%	25.82%	+10.02	8-4
1978-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1606.52	1425.77	66.72%	32.82%	-12.40	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-6	1594.12	1590.14	42.05%	57.45%	+23.89	9-5
1978-12-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-3	1618.01	1399.38	82.87%	16.83%	+8.28	10-5
1978-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1626.29	1678.49	50.57%	48.92%	-10.87	10-6
1978-09-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-13	1468.72	1435.62	62.55%	36.97%	-16.45	0-1
1978-09-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 15-7	1452.27	1371.19	53.07%	46.42%	+14.12	1-1
1978-09-17	Chicago Bears	L 0-19	1466.39	1522.45	50.01%	49.48%	-23.43	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-28	1442.96	1420.89	44.61%	54.89%	-16.61	1-3
1978-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-35	1426.35	1475.61	34.83%	64.70%	-17.17	1-4
1978-10-08	Washington Redskins	L 19-21	1409.18	1589.01	32.94%	66.60%	-5.01	1-5
1978-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-14	1404.17	1453.11	34.87%	64.65%	-14.03	1-6
1978-10-22	San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1390.14	1476.59	45.65%	53.84%	+23.84	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1413.98	1471.58	33.75%	65.78%	+14.12	3-6
1978-11-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-17	1428.10	1566.27	24.29%	75.31%	-8.26	3-7
1978-11-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-23	1419.84	1409.86	59.39%	40.11%	+14.30	4-7
1978-11-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-29	1434.14	1589.93	22.48%	77.14%	-8.37	4-8
1978-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1425.77	1606.52	32.82%	66.72%	+12.40	5-8
1978-12-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-21	1438.17	1459.01	38.62%	60.89%	-10.99	5-9
1978-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-14	1427.18	1564.58	38.53%	60.99%	+36.45	6-9
1978-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-14	1463.63	1367.02	70.63%	28.94%	+13.57	7-9
1978-09-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1435.62	1468.72	36.97%	62.55%	+16.45	1-0
1978-09-10	New Orleans Saints	W 28-17	1452.07	1434.18	60.48%	39.03%	+13.92	2-0
1978-09-17	Oakland Raiders	L 3-28	1465.99	1580.84	41.64%	57.86%	-22.39	2-1
1978-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-3	1443.60	1495.73	34.46%	65.07%	+32.01	3-1
1978-10-01	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1475.61	1426.35	64.70%	34.83%	+17.16	4-1
1978-10-08	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1492.77	1519.32	54.25%	45.25%	+15.38	5-1
1978-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 45-28	1508.15	1433.33	67.97%	31.58%	+14.01	6-1
1978-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-21	1522.16	1524.66	41.15%	58.35%	-16.56	6-2
1978-10-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-7	1505.60	1417.70	69.58%	29.98%	+4.56	7-2
1978-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-10	1510.16	1483.85	45.21%	54.28%	-12.85	7-3
1978-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-42	1497.31	1598.32	43.58%	55.91%	-24.80	7-4
1978-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-16	1472.51	1596.50	25.82%	73.77%	-10.01	7-5
1978-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	T 10-10	1462.50	1560.92	43.95%	55.55%	+0.31	7-5
1978-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-7	1462.81	1402.09	50.15%	49.34%	+16.77	8-5
1978-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-14	1479.58	1444.81	46.42%	53.07%	-18.67	8-6
1978-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-31	1460.91	1614.19	22.74%	76.89%	-10.08	8-7
1978-09-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1525.37	1481.98	47.66%	51.83%	-12.54	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1512.83	1451.55	50.23%	49.26%	+9.17	1-1
1978-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-19	1522.00	1459.46	66.42%	33.12%	+3.56	2-1
1978-09-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-10	1525.56	1620.78	44.40%	55.09%	-9.55	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1516.01	1528.57	39.76%	59.75%	+11.11	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1527.12	1597.42	32.14%	67.40%	-6.91	3-3
1978-10-15	Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1520.21	1398.08	73.57%	26.03%	+7.40	4-3
1978-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-17	1527.61	1665.95	24.28%	75.33%	+21.38	5-3
1978-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-28	1548.99	1427.67	58.77%	40.74%	-24.44	5-4
1978-11-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-10	1524.55	1500.44	61.33%	38.18%	+8.21	6-4
1978-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 26-23	1532.76	1618.45	30.25%	69.31%	+12.88	7-4
1978-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 35-30	1545.64	1606.94	49.26%	50.23%	+12.07	8-4
1978-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1557.71	1422.62	74.99%	24.62%	+7.01	9-4
1978-12-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-13	1564.72	1655.87	44.98%	54.51%	-15.29	9-5
1978-12-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-12	1549.43	1438.04	57.38%	42.12%	+10.12	10-5
1978-12-17	San Diego Chargers	L 24-45	1559.55	1522.17	63.12%	36.40%	-31.05	10-6
1978-09-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-23	1444.00	1537.98	29.25%	70.31%	+7.55	1-0
1978-09-10	Houston Oilers	L 17-20	1451.55	1512.83	49.26%	50.23%	-9.17	1-1
1978-09-17	@ New York Giants	L 10-26	1442.38	1452.94	40.03%	59.47%	-17.22	1-2
1978-09-24	Denver Broncos	L 17-23	1425.16	1596.03	34.08%	65.45%	-8.98	1-3
1978-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-28	1416.18	1407.33	42.74%	56.76%	-17.80	1-4
1978-10-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-30	1398.38	1374.34	61.33%	38.19%	-27.14	1-5
1978-10-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-28	1371.24	1604.34	15.70%	84.01%	-7.91	1-6
1978-10-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-3	1363.33	1510.39	37.22%	62.30%	+25.02	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1388.35	1644.57	14.02%	85.71%	-2.61	2-7
1978-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1385.74	1563.60	33.19%	66.35%	-11.28	2-8
1978-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-29	1374.46	1481.29	27.75%	71.83%	-7.32	2-9
1978-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1367.14	1443.50	47.10%	52.39%	-8.76	2-10
1978-11-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-0	1358.38	1506.98	37.01%	62.50%	+32.17	3-10
1978-12-03	Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1390.55	1387.40	58.44%	41.06%	+8.83	4-10
1978-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-24	1399.38	1618.01	16.83%	82.87%	-8.28	4-11
1978-12-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-23	1391.10	1464.45	31.76%	67.79%	-6.83	4-12
1978-09-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-14	1587.07	1471.89	57.91%	41.59%	+6.32	1-0
1978-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-0	1593.39	1494.52	70.89%	28.68%	+9.76	2-0
1978-09-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-14	1603.15	1631.39	54.00%	45.49%	+17.63	3-0
1978-09-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 10-6	1620.78	1525.56	55.09%	44.40%	+9.54	4-0
1978-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1630.32	1415.91	70.86%	28.71%	+7.57	5-0
1978-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1637.89	1459.10	79.38%	20.27%	+8.98	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-17	1646.87	1543.85	56.20%	43.30%	+19.19	7-0
1978-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 3-10	1666.06	1414.01	85.42%	14.31%	-24.21	7-1
1978-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-15	1641.85	1477.00	64.66%	34.87%	-19.63	7-2
1978-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-23	1622.22	1413.14	82.08%	17.61%	+3.28	8-2
1978-11-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1625.50	1652.21	54.22%	45.27%	+8.42	9-2
1978-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-28	1633.92	1385.67	74.70%	24.91%	+4.64	10-2
1978-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-30	1638.56	1504.09	60.59%	38.92%	-21.57	10-3
1978-12-03	@ New York Giants	W 20-17	1616.99	1417.10	69.11%	30.45%	+5.67	11-3
1978-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-20	1622.66	1447.87	79.01%	20.64%	-8.47	11-4
1978-12-17	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1614.19	1460.91	76.89%	22.74%	+10.08	12-4
1978-09-03	@ New York Jets	L 20-33	1556.13	1408.42	62.38%	37.13%	-24.15	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Baltimore Colts	W 42-0	1531.98	1524.83	42.50%	57.00%	+39.67	1-1
1978-09-17	Buffalo Bills	W 31-24	1571.65	1396.82	79.01%	20.64%	+5.87	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1577.52	1472.87	56.43%	43.07%	-22.67	2-2
1978-10-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-10	1554.85	1445.23	72.15%	27.43%	+11.04	3-2
1978-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-0	1565.89	1464.97	71.13%	28.44%	+14.01	4-2
1978-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-21	1579.90	1489.41	54.42%	45.07%	+12.82	5-2
1978-10-22	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1592.72	1582.37	42.95%	56.55%	-13.85	5-3
1978-10-29	Baltimore Colts	W 26-8	1578.87	1469.00	72.18%	27.40%	+12.50	6-3
1978-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-16	1591.37	1610.90	55.25%	44.25%	+12.59	7-3
1978-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1603.96	1381.34	71.82%	27.76%	+2.98	8-3
1978-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 30-35	1606.94	1545.64	50.23%	49.26%	-12.07	8-4
1978-11-26	New York Jets	L 13-24	1594.87	1454.53	75.55%	24.07%	-26.87	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Washington Redskins	W 16-0	1568.00	1521.20	48.15%	51.34%	+22.07	9-5
1978-12-10	Oakland Raiders	W 23-6	1590.07	1566.25	61.29%	38.22%	+16.94	10-5
1978-12-18	New England Patriots	W 23-3	1607.01	1620.02	56.17%	43.32%	+20.83	11-5
1978-09-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1548.92	1417.07	60.22%	39.28%	-17.11	0-1
1978-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 12-9	1531.81	1593.19	49.25%	50.24%	+9.35	1-1
1978-09-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-16	1541.16	1357.08	79.88%	19.78%	-20.97	1-2
1978-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1520.19	1545.87	37.97%	61.55%	+13.21	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1533.40	1391.13	61.65%	37.86%	+16.79	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 28-29	1550.19	1427.00	59.03%	40.48%	-6.34	3-3
1978-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1543.85	1646.87	43.30%	56.20%	-19.19	3-4
1978-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 21-7	1524.66	1522.16	58.35%	41.15%	+16.56	4-4
1978-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-10	1541.22	1635.95	29.16%	70.40%	+25.05	5-4
1978-11-05	Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1566.27	1428.10	75.31%	24.29%	+8.26	6-4
1978-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1574.53	1448.39	74.01%	25.59%	+4.76	7-4
1978-11-19	San Diego Chargers	L 7-13	1579.29	1488.60	69.92%	29.65%	-18.37	7-5
1978-11-26	@ Green Bay Packers	T 10-10	1560.92	1462.50	55.55%	43.95%	-0.31	7-5
1978-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-27	1560.61	1526.97	62.62%	36.89%	+3.97	8-5
1978-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-45	1564.58	1427.18	60.99%	38.53%	-36.45	8-6
1978-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-27	1528.13	1549.31	38.58%	60.93%	-10.98	8-7
1978-09-03	Washington Redskins	L 14-16	1543.12	1529.03	59.96%	39.55%	-9.10	0-1
1978-09-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-6	1534.02	1491.74	47.49%	51.99%	+17.66	1-1
1978-09-18	Baltimore Colts	L 27-34	1551.68	1485.16	66.92%	32.62%	-19.00	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1532.68	1603.23	32.11%	67.43%	+19.14	2-2
1978-10-01	San Diego Chargers	W 28-23	1551.82	1463.73	69.60%	29.96%	+7.21	3-2
1978-10-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1559.03	1506.13	65.17%	34.36%	+11.69	4-2
1978-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-3	1570.72	1450.96	58.55%	40.95%	+11.65	5-2
1978-10-22	Miami Dolphins	W 33-24	1582.37	1592.72	56.55%	42.95%	+13.85	6-2
1978-10-29	New York Jets	W 55-21	1596.22	1474.20	73.55%	26.04%	+16.33	7-2
1978-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1612.55	1387.24	72.13%	27.45%	+5.90	8-2
1978-11-12	Houston Oilers	L 23-26	1618.45	1532.76	69.31%	30.25%	-12.88	8-3
1978-11-19	@ New York Jets	W 19-17	1605.57	1460.23	62.07%	37.45%	+5.70	9-3
1978-11-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-14	1611.27	1450.44	64.13%	35.39%	+17.44	10-3
1978-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1628.71	1648.99	38.70%	60.81%	-11.01	10-4
1978-12-10	Buffalo Bills	W 26-24	1617.70	1378.57	84.47%	15.24%	+2.32	11-4
1978-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1620.02	1607.01	43.32%	56.17%	-20.83	11-5
1978-09-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-24	1417.07	1548.92	39.28%	60.22%	+17.11	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1434.18	1452.07	39.03%	60.48%	-13.92	1-1
1978-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1420.26	1457.91	52.66%	46.83%	-14.97	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-18	1405.29	1496.32	29.61%	69.96%	+10.62	2-2
1978-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1415.91	1630.32	28.71%	70.86%	-7.57	2-3
1978-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-24	1408.34	1517.46	42.44%	57.06%	-12.90	2-4
1978-10-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1395.44	1450.12	34.13%	65.40%	+18.57	3-4
1978-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 10-3	1414.01	1666.06	14.31%	85.42%	+24.22	4-4
1978-10-29	New York Giants	W 28-17	1438.23	1493.02	50.19%	49.30%	+17.56	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1455.79	1647.18	19.13%	80.54%	-5.03	5-5
1978-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1450.76	1507.40	49.93%	49.56%	-9.29	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1441.47	1623.11	20.01%	79.65%	-9.62	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1431.85	1503.03	32.03%	67.51%	-5.97	5-8
1978-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-13	1425.88	1370.74	65.46%	34.07%	+12.16	6-8
1978-12-10	Houston Oilers	L 12-17	1438.04	1549.43	42.12%	57.38%	-10.13	6-9
1978-12-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1427.91	1376.90	48.75%	50.74%	+14.42	7-9
1978-09-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-13	1452.61	1383.87	51.30%	48.19%	+12.68	1-0
1978-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-34	1465.29	1619.03	36.33%	63.19%	-12.35	1-1
1978-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-10	1452.94	1442.38	59.47%	40.03%	+17.22	2-1
1978-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1470.16	1455.90	59.98%	39.52%	+17.52	3-1
1978-10-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1487.68	1455.62	46.03%	53.46%	-8.57	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1479.11	1610.63	25.00%	74.60%	-12.32	3-3
1978-10-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1466.79	1401.48	66.77%	32.77%	+6.11	4-3
1978-10-22	Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1472.90	1578.19	42.98%	56.52%	+20.12	5-3
1978-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-28	1493.02	1438.23	49.30%	50.19%	-17.56	5-4
1978-11-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-20	1475.46	1414.16	50.23%	49.26%	-17.07	5-5
1978-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1458.39	1556.87	28.72%	70.85%	-5.35	5-6
1978-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-19	1453.04	1508.29	50.13%	49.36%	-7.62	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-41	1445.42	1359.08	53.83%	45.67%	-28.32	5-8
1978-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1417.10	1616.99	30.45%	69.11%	-5.67	5-9
1978-12-10	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-0	1411.43	1470.00	49.65%	49.84%	+22.08	6-9
1978-12-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-20	1433.51	1505.40	31.94%	67.60%	-14.17	6-10
1978-09-03	Miami Dolphins	W 33-20	1408.42	1556.13	37.13%	62.38%	+24.14	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-20	1432.56	1402.60	45.73%	53.76%	+5.77	2-0
1978-09-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1438.33	1403.05	62.84%	36.68%	-17.84	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-23	1420.49	1567.57	23.37%	76.25%	-11.24	2-2
1978-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1409.25	1624.70	28.59%	70.98%	-10.20	2-3
1978-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 45-14	1399.05	1425.12	54.31%	45.18%	+27.04	3-3
1978-10-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 33-10	1426.09	1497.30	32.03%	67.52%	+34.75	4-3
1978-10-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-10	1460.84	1408.62	65.08%	34.45%	+13.36	5-3
1978-10-29	@ New England Patriots	L 21-55	1474.20	1596.22	26.04%	73.55%	-16.33	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1457.87	1593.49	24.56%	75.04%	+13.94	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-17	1471.81	1496.71	38.07%	61.44%	-11.58	6-5
1978-11-19	New England Patriots	L 17-19	1460.23	1605.57	37.45%	62.07%	-5.70	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-13	1454.53	1594.87	24.07%	75.55%	+26.87	7-6
1978-12-03	Baltimore Colts	W 24-16	1481.40	1433.00	64.58%	34.94%	+10.63	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 34-37	1492.03	1499.49	40.46%	59.04%	-7.53	8-7
1978-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-30	1484.50	1677.60	31.28%	68.27%	-16.14	8-8
1978-09-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-14	1588.54	1580.22	42.66%	56.83%	-12.97	0-1
1978-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1575.57	1513.20	50.38%	49.10%	+5.27	1-1
1978-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-3	1580.84	1465.99	57.86%	41.64%	+22.39	2-1
1978-09-24	New England Patriots	L 14-21	1603.23	1532.68	67.43%	32.11%	-19.15	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 25-19	1584.08	1532.66	48.81%	50.68%	+13.34	3-2
1978-10-08	Houston Oilers	W 21-17	1597.42	1527.12	67.40%	32.14%	+6.92	4-2
1978-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-6	1604.34	1371.24	84.01%	15.70%	+7.90	5-2
1978-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-27	1612.24	1419.33	68.25%	31.30%	-32.75	5-3
1978-10-29	San Diego Chargers	L 23-27	1579.49	1452.75	74.08%	25.52%	-15.89	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1563.60	1385.74	66.35%	33.19%	+11.29	6-4
1978-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-21	1574.89	1439.46	60.72%	38.79%	+15.04	7-4
1978-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 29-17	1589.93	1434.14	77.14%	22.48%	+8.38	8-4
1978-11-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1598.31	1452.26	76.14%	23.47%	-8.17	8-5
1978-12-03	Denver Broncos	L 6-21	1590.14	1594.12	57.45%	42.05%	-23.89	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-23	1566.25	1590.07	38.22%	61.29%	-16.94	8-7
1978-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-20	1549.31	1528.13	60.93%	38.58%	+10.97	9-7
1978-09-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-16	1471.89	1587.07	41.59%	57.91%	-6.32	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-35	1465.57	1538.13	31.86%	67.69%	-7.66	0-2
1978-09-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1457.91	1420.26	46.83%	52.66%	+14.96	1-2
1978-09-24	Miami Dolphins	W 17-3	1472.87	1577.52	43.07%	56.43%	+22.68	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-14	1495.55	1487.79	42.58%	56.91%	+10.58	3-2
1978-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 14-24	1506.13	1559.03	34.36%	65.17%	-11.69	3-3
1978-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1494.44	1594.02	43.78%	55.71%	+15.83	4-3
1978-10-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-14	1510.27	1628.42	26.47%	73.12%	-7.53	4-4
1978-10-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-16	1502.74	1395.26	71.90%	27.68%	-18.89	4-5
1978-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1483.85	1510.16	54.28%	45.21%	+12.86	5-5
1978-11-12	New York Jets	W 17-9	1496.71	1471.81	61.44%	38.07%	+11.58	6-5
1978-11-19	@ New York Giants	W 19-17	1508.29	1453.04	49.36%	50.13%	+7.61	7-5
1978-11-26	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 14-10	1515.90	1470.07	48.01%	51.48%	+11.07	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1526.97	1560.61	36.89%	62.62%	-3.97	8-6
1978-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-31	1523.00	1660.00	38.58%	60.93%	-17.60	8-7
1978-12-17	New York Giants	W 20-3	1505.40	1433.51	67.60%	31.94%	+14.16	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-17	1570.29	1415.51	63.33%	36.19%	+12.90	1-0
1978-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-10	1583.19	1410.48	78.81%	20.84%	+7.43	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-3	1590.62	1522.24	51.25%	48.24%	+25.92	3-0
1978-09-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 15-9	1616.54	1536.72	68.59%	30.96%	+8.16	4-0
1978-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 28-17	1624.70	1409.25	70.98%	28.59%	+10.20	5-0
1978-10-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-7	1634.90	1464.19	78.62%	21.03%	+11.08	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-14	1645.98	1530.36	57.97%	41.53%	+19.97	7-0
1978-10-23	Houston Oilers	L 17-24	1665.95	1527.61	75.33%	24.28%	-21.38	7-1
1978-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1644.57	1388.35	85.71%	14.02%	+2.61	8-1
1978-11-05	New Orleans Saints	W 20-14	1647.18	1455.79	80.54%	19.13%	+5.03	9-1
1978-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1652.21	1625.50	45.27%	54.22%	-8.43	9-2
1978-11-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 7-6	1643.78	1424.42	82.93%	16.77%	+1.81	10-2
1978-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1645.59	1381.03	76.42%	23.20%	+10.28	11-2
1978-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-3	1655.87	1564.72	54.51%	44.98%	+15.29	12-2
1978-12-09	Baltimore Colts	W 35-13	1671.16	1422.37	85.18%	14.54%	+7.33	13-2
1978-12-16	@ Denver Broncos	W 21-17	1678.49	1626.29	48.92%	50.57%	+10.86	14-2
1978-09-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-20	1503.28	1420.40	53.33%	46.16%	+9.92	1-0
1978-09-10	Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1513.20	1575.57	49.10%	50.38%	-5.27	1-1
1978-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-27	1507.93	1583.84	31.44%	68.11%	-12.20	1-2
1978-09-24	Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1495.73	1443.60	65.07%	34.46%	-32.00	1-3
1978-10-01	@ New England Patriots	L 23-28	1463.73	1551.82	29.96%	69.60%	-7.21	1-4
1978-10-08	Denver Broncos	W 23-0	1456.52	1615.53	35.63%	63.89%	+32.89	2-4
1978-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1489.41	1579.90	45.07%	54.42%	-12.82	2-5
1978-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1476.59	1390.14	53.84%	45.65%	-23.84	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-23	1452.75	1579.49	25.52%	74.08%	+15.89	3-6
1978-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-13	1468.64	1452.11	60.30%	39.21%	+12.65	4-6
1978-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-23	1481.29	1374.46	71.83%	27.75%	+7.31	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-7	1488.60	1579.29	29.65%	69.92%	+18.38	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-23	1506.98	1358.38	62.50%	37.01%	-32.18	6-7
1978-12-04	Chicago Bears	W 40-7	1474.80	1470.03	58.67%	40.83%	+25.22	7-7
1978-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-10	1500.02	1486.60	59.87%	39.64%	+22.15	8-7
1978-12-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 45-24	1522.17	1559.55	36.40%	63.12%	+31.05	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1487.04	1494.51	40.46%	59.04%	-17.94	0-1
1978-09-10	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1469.10	1512.82	51.79%	47.70%	-9.64	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Houston Oilers	L 19-20	1459.46	1522.00	33.12%	66.42%	-3.56	0-3
1978-09-24	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1455.90	1470.16	39.52%	59.98%	-17.52	0-4
1978-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-12	1438.38	1485.70	51.27%	48.22%	+20.72	1-4
1978-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-27	1459.10	1637.89	20.27%	79.38%	-8.98	1-5
1978-10-15	New Orleans Saints	L 7-14	1450.12	1395.44	65.40%	34.13%	-18.57	1-6
1978-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1431.55	1467.15	52.95%	46.54%	-9.85	1-7
1978-10-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-38	1421.70	1558.06	24.49%	75.12%	-11.17	1-8
1978-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-21	1410.53	1496.63	30.20%	69.36%	-10.78	1-9
1978-11-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-16	1399.75	1431.22	53.54%	45.95%	-14.08	1-10
1978-11-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-31	1385.67	1633.92	24.91%	74.70%	-4.64	1-11
1978-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1381.03	1645.59	23.20%	76.42%	-10.29	1-12
1978-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-24	1370.74	1425.88	34.07%	65.46%	-12.15	1-13
1978-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 6-3	1358.59	1385.32	54.22%	45.27%	+8.43	2-13
1978-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-33	1367.02	1463.63	28.94%	70.63%	-13.57	2-14
1978-09-03	San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1420.40	1503.28	46.16%	53.33%	-9.92	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1410.48	1583.19	20.84%	78.81%	-7.43	0-2
1978-09-17	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1403.05	1438.33	36.68%	62.84%	+17.84	1-2
1978-09-24	Detroit Lions	W 28-16	1420.89	1442.96	54.89%	44.61%	+16.62	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-28	1437.51	1605.01	21.33%	78.31%	-10.51	2-3
1978-10-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 29-28	1427.00	1550.19	40.48%	59.03%	+6.33	3-3
1978-10-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-45	1433.33	1508.15	31.58%	67.97%	-14.00	3-4
1978-10-22	Oakland Raiders	W 27-7	1419.33	1612.24	31.30%	68.25%	+32.75	4-4
1978-10-29	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1452.08	1586.23	38.97%	60.54%	-7.26	4-5
1978-11-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-29	1444.82	1457.46	39.75%	59.76%	+9.07	5-5
1978-11-12	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1453.89	1468.86	55.89%	43.60%	-10.39	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1443.50	1367.14	52.39%	47.10%	+8.76	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-16	1452.26	1598.31	23.47%	76.14%	+8.17	7-6
1978-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 47-24	1460.43	1525.66	48.69%	50.80%	+26.17	8-6
1978-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-37	1486.60	1500.02	39.64%	59.87%	-22.15	8-7
1978-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-19	1464.45	1391.10	67.79%	31.76%	+6.84	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1503.66	1500.90	41.88%	57.62%	-11.92	0-1
1978-09-10	New England Patriots	L 6-16	1491.74	1534.02	51.99%	47.49%	-17.66	0-2
1978-09-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-28	1474.08	1545.80	47.76%	51.73%	-21.78	0-3
1978-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-21	1452.30	1613.76	21.92%	77.71%	-7.07	0-4
1978-10-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1445.23	1554.85	27.43%	72.15%	-11.04	0-5
1978-10-08	Baltimore Colts	L 17-30	1434.19	1477.20	51.89%	47.60%	-20.10	0-6
1978-10-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1414.09	1622.95	29.37%	70.20%	-5.47	0-7
1978-10-22	@ New York Jets	L 10-23	1408.62	1460.84	34.45%	65.08%	-13.36	0-8
1978-10-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1395.26	1502.74	27.68%	71.90%	+18.90	1-8
1978-11-05	New York Giants	W 20-10	1414.16	1475.46	49.26%	50.23%	+17.06	2-8
1978-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 16-10	1431.22	1399.75	45.95%	53.54%	+14.09	3-8
1978-11-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1445.31	1562.22	26.61%	72.98%	+24.76	4-8
1978-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1470.07	1515.90	51.48%	48.01%	-11.06	4-9
1978-12-03	Detroit Lions	W 21-14	1459.01	1438.17	60.89%	38.62%	+10.99	5-9
1978-12-10	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1470.00	1411.43	49.84%	49.65%	-22.08	5-10
1978-12-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-21	1447.92	1485.06	52.73%	46.76%	+23.03	6-10
1978-09-02	New York Giants	L 13-19	1383.87	1452.61	48.19%	51.30%	-12.68	0-1
1978-09-09	Detroit Lions	L 7-15	1371.19	1452.27	46.42%	53.07%	-14.11	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1357.08	1541.16	19.78%	79.88%	+20.97	1-2
1978-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-9	1378.05	1468.69	45.05%	54.44%	+13.08	2-2
1978-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1391.13	1533.40	37.86%	61.65%	-16.79	2-3
1978-10-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-13	1374.34	1398.38	38.19%	61.33%	+27.14	3-3
1978-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1401.48	1466.79	32.77%	66.77%	-6.11	3-4
1978-10-22	Chicago Bears	W 33-19	1395.37	1493.91	43.93%	55.56%	+22.33	4-4
1978-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-9	1417.70	1505.60	29.98%	69.58%	-4.56	4-5
1978-11-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-26	1413.14	1622.22	17.61%	82.08%	-3.28	4-6
1978-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-34	1409.86	1419.84	40.11%	59.39%	-14.30	4-7
1978-11-19	Buffalo Bills	W 31-10	1395.56	1378.35	60.39%	39.12%	+19.27	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-14	1414.83	1457.29	35.73%	63.80%	-12.74	5-8
1978-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1402.09	1462.81	49.34%	50.15%	-16.77	5-9
1978-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-6	1385.32	1358.59	45.27%	54.22%	-8.42	5-10
1978-12-17	New Orleans Saints	L 10-17	1376.90	1427.91	50.74%	48.75%	-14.43	5-11
1978-09-03	@ New England Patriots	W 16-14	1529.03	1543.12	39.55%	59.96%	+9.10	1-0
1978-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-30	1538.13	1465.57	67.69%	31.86%	+7.67	2-0
1978-09-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-10	1545.80	1474.08	51.73%	47.76%	+21.77	3-0
1978-09-24	New York Jets	W 23-3	1567.57	1420.49	76.25%	23.37%	+11.24	4-0
1978-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 9-5	1578.81	1620.83	52.03%	47.46%	+10.20	5-0
1978-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-19	1589.01	1409.18	66.60%	32.94%	+5.01	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1594.02	1494.44	55.71%	43.78%	-15.83	6-1
1978-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 6-17	1578.19	1472.90	56.52%	42.98%	-20.13	6-2
1978-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-20	1558.06	1421.70	75.12%	24.49%	+11.17	7-2
1978-11-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-21	1569.23	1456.49	57.57%	41.93%	-12.36	7-3
1978-11-12	New York Giants	W 16-13	1556.87	1458.39	70.85%	28.72%	+5.35	8-3
1978-11-19	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-27	1562.22	1445.31	72.98%	26.61%	-24.76	8-4
1978-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-37	1537.46	1632.73	29.10%	70.47%	-16.26	8-5
1978-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 0-16	1521.20	1568.00	51.34%	48.15%	-22.06	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1499.14	1476.74	44.65%	54.84%	-8.32	8-7
1978-12-16	Chicago Bears	L 10-14	1490.82	1463.47	61.77%	37.74%	-13.26	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1978-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1462.03	1519.56	50.06%	49.94%	+5.34	1-0
1978-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1467.37	1693.74	16.29%	83.71%	-4.61	1-1
1978-12-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1693.74	1467.37	83.71%	16.29%	+4.61	1-0
1979-01-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-0	1698.35	1638.88	50.22%	49.78%	+28.15	2-0
1979-01-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-35	1726.50	1720.46	50.87%	49.13%	-10.87	2-1
1978-12-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-33	1615.42	1689.35	31.89%	68.11%	-16.34	0-1
1978-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-9	1528.50	1627.84	28.80%	71.20%	+21.53	1-0
1978-12-31	@ New England Patriots	W 31-14	1550.03	1599.19	35.06%	64.94%	+28.63	2-0
1979-01-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 5-34	1578.66	1705.70	25.64%	74.36%	-14.76	2-1
1978-12-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-10	1624.27	1517.15	72.11%	27.89%	+14.61	1-0
1979-01-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-28	1638.88	1698.35	49.78%	50.22%	-28.16	1-1
1978-12-24	Houston Oilers	L 9-17	1627.84	1528.50	71.20%	28.80%	-21.52	0-1
1978-12-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-34	1517.15	1624.27	27.89%	72.11%	-14.60	0-1
1978-12-31	Houston Oilers	L 14-31	1599.19	1550.03	64.94%	35.06%	-28.63	0-1
1978-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-14	1519.56	1462.03	49.94%	50.06%	-5.34	0-1
1978-12-30	Denver Broncos	W 33-10	1689.35	1615.42	68.11%	31.89%	+16.35	1-0
1979-01-07	Houston Oilers	W 34-5	1705.70	1578.66	74.36%	25.64%	+14.76	2-0
1979-01-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-31	1720.46	1726.50	49.13%	50.87%	+10.88	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1978-10-22	14.31%	New Orleans Saints	1414.01	10	@ Los Angeles Rams	1666.06	3
2	1978-09-17	19.78%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1357.08	16	@ Minnesota Vikings	1541.16	10
3	1978-12-11	20.64%	Cincinnati Bengals	1447.87	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1622.66	19
4	1978-11-26	23.47%	Seattle Seahawks	1452.26	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1598.31	16
5	1978-11-26	24.07%	New York Jets	1454.53	24	@ Miami Dolphins	1594.87	13
6	1978-10-23	24.28%	Houston Oilers	1527.61	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1665.95	17
7	1978-11-05	24.56%	New York Jets	1457.87	31	@ Denver Broncos	1593.49	28
8	1978-10-29	25.52%	San Diego Chargers	1452.75	27	@ Oakland Raiders	1579.49	23
9	1978-11-19	26.61%	St. Louis Cardinals	1445.31	27	@ Washington Redskins	1562.22	17
10	1978-10-29	27.68%	St. Louis Cardinals	1395.26	16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1502.74	10
11	1978-12-24 *	28.80%	Houston Oilers	1528.50	17	@ Miami Dolphins	1627.84	9
12	1978-10-26	29.16%	Minnesota Vikings	1541.22	21	@ Dallas Cowboys	1635.95	10
13	1978-09-03	29.25%	Kansas City Chiefs	1444.00	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1537.98	23
14	1978-09-24	29.61%	New Orleans Saints	1405.29	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1496.32	18
15	1978-11-19	29.65%	San Diego Chargers	1488.60	13	@ Minnesota Vikings	1579.29	7
16	1978-11-12	30.25%	Houston Oilers	1532.76	26	@ New England Patriots	1618.45	23
17	1978-10-22	31.30%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1419.33	27	Oakland Raiders	1612.24	7
18	1978-10-15	32.03%	New York Jets	1426.09	33	@ Baltimore Colts	1497.30	10
19	1978-09-24	32.11%	New England Patriots	1532.68	21	@ Oakland Raiders	1603.23	14
20	1978-09-18	32.62%	Baltimore Colts	1485.16	34	@ New England Patriots	1551.68	27
21	1978-11-23	32.82%	@ Detroit Lions	1425.77	17	Denver Broncos	1606.52	14
22	1978-10-29	33.75%	Detroit Lions	1413.98	21	@ Chicago Bears	1471.58	17
23	1978-10-15	34.13%	New Orleans Saints	1395.44	14	@ San Francisco 49ers	1450.12	7
24	1978-09-24	34.46%	Green Bay Packers	1443.60	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1495.73	3
25	1978-10-30	34.87%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1477.00	15	Los Angeles Rams	1641.85	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1978-09-10	39.67	Miami Dolphins	42	1531.98	42.50%	@ Baltimore Colts	0	1524.83	57.00%
2	1978-12-09	36.45	@ Detroit Lions	45	1427.18	38.53%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1564.58	60.99%
3	1978-10-15	34.75	New York Jets	33	1426.09	32.03%	@ Baltimore Colts	10	1497.30	67.52%
4	1978-10-08	32.89	@ San Diego Chargers	23	1456.52	35.63%	Denver Broncos	0	1615.53	63.89%
5	1978-10-22	32.75	@ Seattle Seahawks	27	1419.33	31.30%	Oakland Raiders	7	1612.24	68.25%
6	1978-12-03	32.26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	37	1415.61	44.66%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1509.00	54.83%
7	1978-11-26	32.18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	23	1358.38	37.01%	San Diego Chargers	0	1506.98	62.50%
8	1978-09-24	32.01	Green Bay Packers	24	1443.60	34.46%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1495.73	65.07%
9	1978-12-17	31.05	San Diego Chargers	45	1522.17	36.40%	@ Houston Oilers	24	1559.55	63.12%
10	1978-12-17	29.60	@ Cincinnati Bengals	48	1456.34	50.79%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1507.02	48.70%
11	1978-11-19	28.82	Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1475.27	40.94%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1479.25	58.56%
12	1978-12-31 *	28.63	Houston Oilers	31	1550.03	35.06%	@ New England Patriots	14	1599.19	64.94%
13	1978-11-26	28.32	@ Buffalo Bills	41	1359.08	45.67%	New York Giants	17	1445.42	53.83%
14	1979-01-07 *	28.16	Dallas Cowboys	28	1698.35	50.22%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1638.88	49.78%
15	1978-10-08	27.14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	1374.34	38.19%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	13	1398.38	61.33%
16	1978-10-08	27.04	@ New York Jets	45	1399.05	54.31%	Buffalo Bills	14	1425.12	45.18%
17	1978-11-26	26.87	New York Jets	24	1454.53	24.07%	@ Miami Dolphins	13	1594.87	75.55%
18	1978-12-03	26.17	@ Seattle Seahawks	47	1460.43	48.69%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1525.66	50.80%
19	1978-09-17	25.92	Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1590.62	51.25%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1522.24	48.24%
20	1978-12-04	25.22	@ San Diego Chargers	40	1474.80	58.67%	Chicago Bears	7	1470.03	40.83%
21	1978-10-26	25.05	Minnesota Vikings	21	1541.22	29.16%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1635.95	70.40%
22	1978-10-22	25.02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1363.33	37.22%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	1510.39	62.30%
23	1978-11-12	24.80	Dallas Cowboys	42	1598.32	55.91%	@ Green Bay Packers	14	1497.31	43.58%
24	1978-11-19	24.76	St. Louis Cardinals	27	1445.31	26.61%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1562.22	72.98%
25	1978-10-29	24.44	@ Cincinnati Bengals	28	1427.67	40.74%	Houston Oilers	13	1548.99	58.77%