1977 NFL Season

196 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1971

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Denver Broncos

3.56 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.44 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Kansas City Chiefs

2.83 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.83 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	9	5	.643	-	283	243	+40	9.52	-0.52
2	Cincinnati Bengals	8	6	.571	1	238	235	+3	7.91	+0.09
3	Houston Oilers	8	6	.571	1	299	230	+69	6.63	+1.37
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	8	.429	3	269	267	+2	6.64	-0.64

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	10	4	.714	-	295	221	+74	9.23	+0.77
2	Miami Dolphins	10	4	.714	-	313	197	+116	8.22	+1.78
3	New England Patriots	9	5	.643	1	278	217	+61	9.02	-0.02
4	Buffalo Bills	3	11	.214	7	160	313	-153	4.48	-1.48
5	New York Jets	3	11	.214	7	191	300	-109	4.20	-1.20

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	12	2	.857	-	274	148	+126	8.44	+3.56
2	Oakland Raiders Playoffs	11	3	.786	1	351	230	+121	9.83	+1.17
3	San Diego Chargers	7	7	.500	5	222	205	+17	6.06	+0.94
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	9	.357	7	282	373	-91	3.90	+1.10
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2	12	.143	10	225	349	-124	4.83	-2.83

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	9	5	.643	-	231	227	+4	9.25	-0.25
2	Chicago Bears Playoffs	9	5	.643	-	255	253	+2	7.19	+1.81
3	Detroit Lions	6	8	.429	3	183	252	-69	6.90	-0.90
4	Green Bay Packers	4	10	.286	5	134	219	-85	5.45	-1.45
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	12	.143	7	103	223	-120	3.21	-1.21

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	2	.857	-	345	212	+133	9.04	+2.96
2	Washington Redskins	9	5	.643	3	196	189	+7	8.17	+0.83
3	St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	.500	5	272	287	-15	8.17	-1.17
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	9	.357	7	220	207	+13	5.61	-0.61
5	New York Giants	5	9	.357	7	181	265	-84	5.53	-0.53

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	4	.714	-	302	146	+156	9.76	+0.24
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	7	.500	3	179	129	+50	6.36	+0.64
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	5	220	260	-40	6.87	-1.87
4	New Orleans Saints	3	11	.214	7	232	336	-104	5.56	-2.56

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 37

Baltimore Colts 31

Dec 24

Denver Broncos 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Dec 24

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 20

Oakland Raiders 17

Jan 1

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 37

Chicago Bears 7

Dec 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Los Angeles Rams 7

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 23

Minnesota Vikings 6

Jan 1

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 27

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1684	11	9.83	+1.17	85.69%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1670	10	9.76	+0.24	66.38%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1668	12	9.04	+2.96	98.58%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1666	12	8.44	+3.56	99.38%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1662	9	9.52	-0.52	48.79%	2	7	8	10	11	12	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1612	10	9.23	+0.77	77.28%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1608	10	8.22	+1.78	90.89%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1608	9	9.25	-0.25	55.17%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1586	9	9.02	-0.02	60.62%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1580	8	7.91	+0.09	63.16%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1565	9	8.17	+0.83	78.09%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1546	8	6.63	+1.37	85.83%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1513	9	7.19	+1.81	90.64%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1507	7	8.17	-1.17	34.83%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1506	7	6.06	+0.94	79.64%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1487	6	6.64	-0.64	47.47%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1472	5	6.87	-1.87	22.16%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1456	7	6.36	+0.64	74.57%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1443	6	6.90	-0.90	41.42%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1431	5	5.61	-0.61	48.69%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1410	5	5.53	-0.53	50.38%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1376	4	5.45	-1.45	30.30%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1372	2	4.83	-2.83	8.06%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1343	5	3.90	+1.10	84.79%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1337	3	4.48	-1.48	28.67%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1318	3	5.56	-2.56	11.63%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1307	3	4.20	-1.20	34.96%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1267	2	3.21	-1.21	34.16%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	2-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-4 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.51%	4.34%	4.08%	1.79%	0.77%	0.51%	0.26%	12.24%
7–13	4.34%	5.10%	7.14%	5.36%	2.55%	0.51%	0.77%	25.77%
14–20	4.08%	7.14%	7.14%	6.12%	2.55%	0.26%	0.77%	28.06%
21–27	1.79%	5.36%	6.12%	1.53%	2.55%	0.26%	0.26%	17.86%
28–34	0.77%	2.55%	2.55%	2.55%	1.53%	0.51%	0.51%	10.97%
35–41	0.51%	0.51%	0.26%	0.26%	0.51%	—	0.26%	2.30%
42+	0.26%	0.77%	0.77%	0.26%	0.51%	0.26%	—	2.81%
Total	12.24%	25.77%	28.06%	17.86%	10.97%	2.30%	2.81%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.18	17.18	+0.00
SD	10.34	10.34	14.48
CV	0.60	0.60	—
Max	56	56	+47
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 196

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.86%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.79	9.21	+3.57
SD	8.95	7.19	11.88
CV	0.70	0.78	—
Max	35	23	+28
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.07	15.79	+5.29
SD	12.26	7.24	11.73
CV	0.58	0.46	—
Max	45	28	+21
Min	3	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.43	22.36	-10.93
SD	7.20	13.73	12.47
CV	0.63	0.61	—
Max	24	56	+10
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	14.29%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.21	18.07	+0.14
SD	9.36	13.81	17.36
CV	0.51	0.76	—
Max	31	47	+26
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	50.00%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	16.79	+0.21
SD	10.60	9.55	15.50
CV	0.62	0.57	—
Max	42	42	+22
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.21	19.07	+0.14
SD	11.34	10.83	14.94
CV	0.59	0.57	—
Max	44	37	+37
Min	0	3	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.64	15.14	+9.50
SD	10.42	9.91	12.17
CV	0.42	0.65	—
Max	42	35	+37
Min	13	0	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	35.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	57.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	10.57	+9.00
SD	7.31	5.68	9.28
CV	0.37	0.54	—
Max	30	24	+23
Min	6	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.07	18.00	-4.93
SD	6.81	11.36	14.27
CV	0.52	0.63	—
Max	23	37	+20
Min	0	0	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	57.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.57	15.64	-6.07
SD	5.58	6.90	9.77
CV	0.58	0.44	—
Max	24	26	+13
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.36	16.43	+4.93
SD	10.62	10.14	17.09
CV	0.50	0.62	—
Max	47	34	+47
Min	7	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.07	24.93	-8.86
SD	9.07	9.65	11.71
CV	0.56	0.39	—
Max	31	44	+10
Min	6	10	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	10.43	+11.14
SD	8.66	8.75	12.69
CV	0.40	0.84	—
Max	35	27	+32
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	14.07	+8.29
SD	11.65	10.59	14.02
CV	0.52	0.75	—
Max	55	45	+41
Min	10	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	16.21	+0.29
SD	10.74	11.00	16.22
CV	0.65	0.68	—
Max	42	35	+32
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	21.43%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.86	15.50	+4.36
SD	6.94	10.20	11.19
CV	0.35	0.66	—
Max	31	30	+31
Min	5	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.57	24.00	-7.43
SD	11.30	10.15	11.66
CV	0.68	0.42	—
Max	42	49	+18
Min	0	10	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.93	18.93	-6.00
SD	7.46	10.87	13.97
CV	0.58	0.57	—
Max	27	41	+20
Min	0	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.64	21.43	-7.79
SD	9.61	5.94	9.99
CV	0.70	0.28	—
Max	30	33	+5
Min	0	13	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.07	16.43	+8.64
SD	11.25	9.41	15.09
CV	0.45	0.57	—
Max	44	30	+37
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	28.57%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.71	14.79	+0.93
SD	7.98	7.39	13.28
CV	0.51	0.50	—
Max	28	24	+27
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	17.36	+2.86
SD	9.60	8.60	13.01
CV	0.47	0.50	—
Max	35	31	+27
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.86	14.64	+1.21
SD	10.39	8.44	13.93
CV	0.66	0.58	—
Max	37	28	+23
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.71	18.57	-2.86
SD	9.95	11.42	12.15
CV	0.63	0.61	—
Max	35	42	+21
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	—	14.29%	21.43%	42.86%	—	14.29%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	26.64	-6.50
SD	13.78	10.83	19.63
CV	0.68	0.41	—
Max	56	44	+39
Min	0	0	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.43	20.50	-1.07
SD	11.80	13.51	17.53
CV	0.61	0.66	—
Max	49	55	+28
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	57.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.36	15.93	-8.57
SD	10.25	7.58	11.68
CV	1.39	0.48	—
Max	33	31	+19
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	57.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	13.50	+0.50
SD	7.09	8.70	8.57
CV	0.51	0.64	—
Max	26	34	+10
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.55	+0.4
Allowed	0.39	-0.3
Differential	0.85	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	12	8.44	+3.56
2	Dallas Cowboys	12	9.04	+2.96
3	Chicago Bears	9	7.19	+1.81
4	Miami Dolphins	10	8.22	+1.78
5	Houston Oilers	8	6.63	+1.37

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Kansas City Chiefs	2	4.83	-2.83
2	New Orleans Saints	3	5.56	-2.56
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	6.87	-1.87
4	Buffalo Bills	3	4.48	-1.48
5	Green Bay Packers	4	5.45	-1.45

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	6	Oct 16 – Nov 20	1 in 38
2	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 13 – Dec 18	1 in 34
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	Sep 18 – Nov 6	1 in 31
4	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 18 – Oct 23	1 in 29
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	Dec 11 – Dec 18	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Nov 24 – Dec 18	1 in 100
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	Sep 18 – Dec 4	1 in 26
3	New Orleans Saints	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 24
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	Sep 19 – Oct 16	1 in 21
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.26%	23.52%	9.73%	3.50%
Cincinnati Bengals	21.20%	36.24%	26.09%	16.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.00%	19.92%	32.18%	39.90%
Houston Oilers	7.54%	20.33%	32.00%	40.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	42.41%	32.39%	21.27%	3.38%	0.56%
New England Patriots	35.27%	34.15%	25.52%	4.32%	0.74%
Miami Dolphins	21.60%	30.01%	37.93%	8.58%	1.88%
Buffalo Bills	0.43%	2.00%	8.38%	45.19%	44.00%
New York Jets	0.30%	1.45%	6.89%	38.54%	52.82%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	67.66%	26.27%	5.10%	0.87%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	27.68%	50.62%	15.96%	4.61%	1.13%
San Diego Chargers	3.65%	15.31%	43.46%	25.55%	12.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.87%	6.07%	24.39%	39.91%	28.75%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	1.73%	11.08%	29.05%	58.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	67.41%	21.43%	8.36%	2.51%	0.29%
Chicago Bears	15.60%	34.29%	30.20%	16.63%	3.29%
Detroit Lions	13.23%	30.50%	32.51%	19.84%	3.91%
Green Bay Packers	3.64%	12.85%	24.61%	42.38%	16.52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.93%	4.32%	18.63%	75.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	46.63%	28.24%	16.48%	6.61%	2.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.66%	29.48%	26.79%	13.52%	5.55%
Washington Redskins	24.14%	29.21%	27.03%	13.90%	5.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.24%	6.60%	15.03%	33.56%	42.57%
New York Giants	2.33%	6.46%	14.67%	32.42%	44.12%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	78.23%	15.89%	4.72%	1.16%
San Francisco 49ers	11.71%	38.85%	30.25%	19.19%
Atlanta Falcons	7.00%	29.17%	35.46%	28.38%
New Orleans Saints	3.06%	16.10%	29.57%	51.27%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Oakland Raiders	24.94%	21.11%	17.85%	11.54%	8.94%	6.94%	3.81%	2.18%	1.45%	0.67%	0.32%	0.17%	0.04%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.22%	18.59%	16.28%	11.92%	9.12%	7.47%	5.51%	3.79%	2.46%	1.45%	0.74%	0.35%	0.08%	0.02%
Baltimore Colts	16.46%	15.83%	13.97%	13.06%	11.18%	9.45%	7.62%	5.69%	3.35%	1.66%	0.89%	0.51%	0.25%	0.09%
New England Patriots	12.70%	13.76%	13.42%	13.31%	12.06%	10.59%	8.49%	6.83%	4.31%	2.15%	1.24%	0.66%	0.35%	0.12%
Denver Broncos	8.93%	9.60%	10.76%	13.15%	13.50%	13.51%	9.82%	7.22%	5.82%	3.38%	2.07%	1.30%	0.64%	0.29%
Miami Dolphins	6.61%	8.58%	9.48%	11.31%	11.82%	11.47%	12.36%	10.77%	7.37%	4.48%	2.84%	1.65%	0.95%	0.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.80%	6.75%	8.68%	10.51%	12.12%	12.21%	11.45%	10.31%	8.59%	6.67%	4.29%	2.51%	0.86%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.39%	2.16%	3.47%	5.04%	6.75%	8.42%	10.86%	12.51%	12.57%	12.98%	10.66%	7.98%	3.80%	1.43%
Houston Oilers	1.12%	2.08%	3.43%	5.00%	6.75%	8.50%	10.64%	12.87%	12.99%	13.25%	10.75%	7.76%	3.61%	1.27%
San Diego Chargers	0.68%	1.11%	1.82%	3.31%	4.54%	6.12%	9.22%	11.88%	15.12%	13.29%	11.14%	9.86%	7.16%	4.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.19%	0.42%	0.87%	1.51%	2.39%	4.17%	6.26%	9.92%	12.18%	14.45%	17.75%	15.71%	14.09%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.11%	0.23%	0.47%	0.78%	1.32%	2.56%	3.89%	6.20%	11.04%	15.68%	17.33%	20.16%	20.20%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.08%	0.15%	0.32%	0.56%	0.91%	1.95%	3.05%	4.97%	9.11%	14.04%	16.78%	23.69%	24.37%
Seattle Seahawks	<0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.18%	0.36%	0.71%	1.55%	2.75%	4.88%	7.68%	10.89%	15.39%	22.70%	32.81%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	31.54%	23.17%	17.06%	9.15%	6.46%	4.76%	2.87%	1.99%	1.39%	0.79%	0.47%	0.25%	0.09%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	23.18%	20.07%	17.32%	11.47%	8.48%	6.16%	4.67%	3.17%	2.27%	1.41%	0.94%	0.54%	0.22%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	18.08%	17.94%	15.38%	13.29%	9.50%	7.28%	6.10%	4.32%	3.04%	2.25%	1.44%	0.81%	0.49%	0.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.44%	10.43%	11.42%	13.07%	10.95%	10.02%	9.56%	7.65%	5.79%	4.86%	3.32%	2.33%	1.67%	0.48%
Washington Redskins	8.46%	10.10%	10.99%	13.15%	11.11%	10.15%	9.67%	7.80%	5.92%	4.91%	3.37%	2.24%	1.66%	0.47%
Chicago Bears	3.27%	4.92%	6.84%	8.85%	11.14%	11.04%	10.29%	10.62%	9.27%	7.47%	6.56%	5.08%	3.02%	1.64%
San Francisco 49ers	2.28%	3.79%	5.46%	7.46%	10.19%	11.36%	10.49%	10.65%	10.41%	8.62%	7.45%	6.43%	4.13%	1.28%
Detroit Lions	2.00%	3.87%	5.91%	7.69%	10.00%	10.22%	10.46%	10.88%	10.28%	8.82%	7.75%	6.15%	3.99%	1.97%
Atlanta Falcons	1.22%	2.19%	3.41%	5.44%	7.59%	9.25%	9.53%	10.93%	11.60%	10.42%	9.98%	9.34%	6.69%	2.40%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.84%	1.56%	2.56%	4.02%	5.59%	6.73%	8.38%	10.55%	11.62%	13.92%	15.53%	12.82%	5.54%
Green Bay Packers	0.41%	0.87%	1.58%	2.56%	3.84%	4.98%	6.19%	7.98%	9.35%	11.02%	13.69%	14.85%	12.27%	10.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.38%	0.89%	1.49%	2.54%	3.33%	4.41%	6.41%	7.33%	9.24%	12.47%	12.89%	13.56%	17.01%	8.07%
New York Giants	0.40%	0.91%	1.52%	2.64%	3.17%	4.40%	6.32%	7.10%	8.86%	11.93%	12.42%	13.25%	17.44%	9.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.22%	0.39%	0.70%	1.21%	2.04%	3.42%	5.80%	9.63%	18.48%	57.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Los Angeles Rams	15.57%	14.27%	10.84%	10.85%	8.03%	8.58%	5.30%	5.11%	3.65%	3.86%	2.75%	2.53%	1.70%	1.67%	1.23%	1.03%	0.79%	0.66%	0.51%	0.36%	0.26%	0.18%	0.13%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	15.89%	12.10%	11.74%	9.65%	9.15%	7.61%	6.20%	5.17%	4.64%	3.63%	3.34%	2.81%	1.91%	1.67%	1.14%	0.91%	0.70%	0.60%	0.34%	0.28%	0.17%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.37%	10.64%	10.62%	8.56%	8.97%	6.93%	6.62%	5.08%	5.16%	3.74%	4.01%	3.04%	2.89%	2.14%	1.99%	1.54%	1.24%	1.00%	0.77%	0.57%	0.38%	0.31%	0.18%	0.15%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	10.31%	10.68%	9.33%	9.61%	8.04%	8.73%	6.18%	6.01%	4.78%	4.92%	3.55%	3.28%	2.82%	2.56%	1.99%	1.59%	1.38%	1.11%	0.82%	0.68%	0.51%	0.40%	0.30%	0.19%	0.10%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%
Baltimore Colts	9.49%	8.74%	9.12%	7.58%	8.00%	6.59%	7.06%	5.92%	5.97%	4.68%	4.86%	4.05%	3.73%	2.97%	2.62%	2.30%	1.61%	1.42%	0.92%	0.71%	0.49%	0.38%	0.28%	0.22%	0.15%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	7.70%	8.94%	8.16%	8.87%	7.51%	7.73%	6.69%	6.56%	5.27%	5.25%	4.35%	3.77%	3.34%	3.03%	2.60%	2.23%	1.80%	1.41%	1.36%	1.00%	0.74%	0.59%	0.44%	0.27%	0.22%	0.11%	0.05%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	6.86%	7.38%	7.58%	7.42%	7.36%	6.84%	6.87%	6.55%	6.26%	5.26%	5.04%	4.90%	3.96%	3.69%	3.01%	2.82%	2.05%	1.76%	1.18%	0.93%	0.68%	0.52%	0.38%	0.29%	0.18%	0.13%	0.07%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	4.89%	4.72%	5.63%	5.13%	6.34%	5.34%	7.17%	6.06%	6.98%	5.72%	6.57%	5.76%	4.80%	4.58%	3.63%	3.49%	2.77%	2.62%	1.78%	1.59%	1.14%	1.03%	0.73%	0.62%	0.35%	0.29%	0.17%	0.08%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.11%	4.25%	4.62%	5.39%	5.45%	5.92%	6.17%	6.35%	5.60%	5.94%	5.48%	5.21%	4.96%	4.90%	4.27%	4.00%	3.44%	2.83%	2.72%	2.26%	1.90%	1.44%	1.30%	0.92%	0.80%	0.45%	0.22%	0.11%
Miami Dolphins	3.30%	3.89%	4.76%	4.79%	5.41%	4.98%	6.12%	5.76%	6.33%	5.49%	5.68%	5.73%	5.79%	5.26%	4.81%	4.78%	3.41%	3.45%	2.30%	2.23%	1.57%	1.24%	0.95%	0.78%	0.54%	0.36%	0.20%	0.08%
Washington Redskins	2.99%	4.38%	4.44%	5.24%	5.04%	5.97%	5.74%	6.84%	5.47%	6.31%	5.37%	5.48%	4.84%	5.12%	4.31%	4.09%	3.45%	2.87%	2.73%	2.27%	1.89%	1.44%	1.25%	0.88%	0.76%	0.50%	0.24%	0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.50%	2.83%	3.67%	4.01%	4.69%	4.56%	5.67%	5.44%	6.36%	5.38%	6.26%	5.67%	5.76%	5.00%	5.02%	4.59%	4.31%	3.91%	3.32%	2.94%	2.23%	2.02%	1.38%	1.19%	0.58%	0.42%	0.20%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	0.96%	1.63%	1.87%	2.64%	2.75%	3.73%	3.68%	4.80%	4.59%	6.05%	5.05%	6.01%	5.35%	5.86%	5.43%	5.50%	5.15%	4.87%	4.22%	3.81%	3.60%	3.11%	2.83%	2.16%	1.68%	1.31%	0.93%	0.42%
San Francisco 49ers	0.65%	1.18%	1.42%	1.90%	2.30%	2.86%	3.18%	3.87%	4.14%	5.39%	4.96%	5.75%	5.40%	6.14%	5.49%	5.63%	5.52%	5.58%	4.69%	4.59%	4.24%	3.61%	3.45%	2.85%	2.07%	1.83%	0.86%	0.46%
Detroit Lions	0.51%	1.06%	1.34%	2.05%	2.25%	3.07%	3.15%	4.13%	4.19%	5.52%	4.67%	5.45%	5.22%	6.02%	5.60%	5.62%	5.61%	5.44%	5.01%	4.51%	4.37%	3.66%	3.36%	2.56%	2.29%	1.70%	1.06%	0.58%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.59%	0.80%	1.20%	1.28%	1.92%	1.87%	2.86%	2.70%	3.66%	3.30%	4.42%	4.46%	5.38%	5.07%	5.83%	6.05%	5.96%	6.09%	5.87%	5.91%	5.15%	5.26%	3.91%	4.08%	2.40%	2.18%	1.12%	0.66%
Houston Oilers	0.44%	0.69%	1.11%	1.25%	1.80%	1.94%	2.71%	2.74%	3.63%	3.39%	4.53%	4.37%	5.46%	4.96%	6.17%	6.00%	6.14%	6.14%	6.12%	6.23%	4.91%	5.38%	3.81%	4.01%	2.37%	2.10%	0.99%	0.60%
Atlanta Falcons	0.30%	0.59%	0.79%	1.13%	1.34%	1.87%	2.06%	2.85%	3.10%	4.08%	3.92%	4.80%	4.75%	5.46%	5.39%	5.83%	5.93%	6.16%	5.60%	5.48%	5.43%	4.98%	4.73%	4.33%	3.42%	3.06%	1.61%	1.02%
San Diego Chargers	0.28%	0.38%	0.56%	0.66%	1.01%	1.06%	1.85%	1.69%	2.47%	2.30%	3.40%	3.26%	4.61%	4.35%	5.70%	5.68%	6.19%	7.21%	6.03%	6.56%	5.74%	5.91%	5.00%	5.24%	4.10%	3.94%	2.88%	1.93%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.18%	0.22%	0.45%	0.54%	0.80%	0.93%	1.40%	1.52%	2.22%	2.18%	3.06%	3.19%	3.80%	4.15%	4.49%	5.41%	5.58%	6.30%	6.09%	7.43%	6.75%	7.88%	6.84%	6.36%	5.84%	3.75%	2.60%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%	0.19%	0.28%	0.42%	0.57%	0.80%	0.93%	1.29%	1.45%	1.89%	2.17%	2.41%	2.97%	3.45%	3.86%	4.29%	4.85%	5.04%	6.50%	6.68%	6.99%	6.65%	7.70%	6.49%	7.99%	6.45%	4.67%	2.95%
Green Bay Packers	0.08%	0.19%	0.26%	0.44%	0.57%	0.85%	0.93%	1.27%	1.60%	2.03%	2.23%	2.60%	3.05%	3.40%	3.93%	4.22%	5.04%	4.93%	5.85%	5.89%	7.01%	6.95%	7.42%	6.98%	6.29%	6.31%	5.44%	4.24%
New York Giants	0.07%	0.21%	0.26%	0.44%	0.55%	0.82%	1.00%	1.31%	1.41%	1.84%	2.25%	2.30%	2.96%	3.36%	3.94%	3.94%	4.84%	4.68%	6.40%	6.06%	6.81%	6.49%	7.20%	6.57%	8.02%	7.17%	5.34%	3.74%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.12%	0.19%	0.27%	0.44%	0.48%	0.80%	0.78%	1.24%	1.33%	2.02%	2.03%	2.93%	3.25%	4.27%	4.86%	5.42%	6.04%	6.60%	7.39%	7.78%	9.31%	8.20%	9.02%	8.11%	6.99%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.11%	0.12%	0.24%	0.25%	0.43%	0.39%	0.78%	0.76%	1.29%	1.31%	1.90%	2.23%	2.88%	3.33%	4.66%	5.63%	6.40%	7.98%	7.81%	9.46%	10.00%	10.81%	10.89%	10.19%
New York Jets	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.07%	0.09%	0.14%	0.20%	0.28%	0.29%	0.49%	0.57%	0.90%	1.04%	1.45%	1.72%	2.30%	2.79%	3.80%	4.83%	5.63%	7.04%	7.52%	9.24%	10.91%	12.62%	13.01%	12.96%
Seattle Seahawks	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.10%	0.17%	0.21%	0.33%	0.42%	0.70%	0.78%	1.13%	1.50%	1.94%	2.59%	3.15%	3.98%	4.67%	5.84%	6.98%	8.62%	10.84%	12.21%	15.76%	17.91%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.06%	0.07%	0.12%	0.12%	0.20%	0.29%	0.38%	0.46%	0.67%	1.01%	1.08%	1.67%	1.88%	3.06%	3.30%	5.19%	5.65%	9.22%	10.96%	22.30%	32.24%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders	24.94%	21.77%	20.95%	9.21%	23.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.22%	19.76%	21.28%	7.83%	28.91%
Baltimore Colts	16.46%	15.18%	10.77%	15.54%	42.05%
New England Patriots	12.70%	13.09%	9.48%	16.14%	48.58%
Denver Broncos	8.93%	9.12%	9.64%	14.68%	57.64%
Miami Dolphins	6.61%	8.26%	6.73%	12.98%	65.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.80%	6.78%	9.62%	10.02%	68.78%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.39%	2.25%	4.36%	4.44%	87.56%
Houston Oilers	1.12%	2.19%	4.24%	4.37%	88.09%
San Diego Chargers	0.68%	1.13%	1.85%	3.21%	93.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.23%	0.56%	0.75%	98.38%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.12%	0.27%	0.41%	99.17%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.10%	0.18%	0.26%	99.45%
Seattle Seahawks	<0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.14%	99.72%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	31.54%	24.64%	22.05%	5.08%	16.69%
Minnesota Vikings	23.18%	21.32%	22.91%	7.14%	25.45%
Dallas Cowboys	18.08%	17.18%	11.37%	16.68%	36.69%
Washington Redskins	8.46%	9.11%	6.57%	16.57%	59.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.44%	9.39%	6.83%	16.80%	58.54%
Chicago Bears	3.27%	4.88%	7.45%	8.47%	75.94%
San Francisco 49ers	2.28%	3.78%	5.65%	7.42%	80.87%
Detroit Lions	2.00%	3.96%	7.27%	6.69%	80.08%
Atlanta Falcons	1.22%	2.17%	3.60%	5.27%	87.74%
Green Bay Packers	0.41%	0.95%	2.28%	2.02%	94.34%
New York Giants	0.40%	0.87%	1.06%	2.79%	94.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.38%	0.87%	0.99%	2.69%	95.07%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.86%	1.88%	2.30%	94.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.02%	0.10%	0.09%	99.79%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+15.31%

Fortress

57.65%42.35%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 53.60 Elo pts.

23 Elo

0.044 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.25 points

Home-Tilted

-8+2.35+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.9

Wide Open

124812

Champion Preseason Odds

12%

Dallas Cowboys, 3rd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

24.1%

Favored

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.89 · Elevated: 1.89 to 2.57 · High Variance: 2.57 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.79 · Close: 3.79 to 5.12 · Off Target: 5.12 to 6.68 · Well Off Target: 6.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.09 · As Expected: 2.09 to 3.49 · More Than Expected: 3.49 to 5.58 · Far More Than Expected: 5.58 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.51 wins

As Expected

01.714

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.00

Pinpoint

04.4610

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.38%

Denver Broncos

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

8.06%

Kansas City Chiefs

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 28

As Expected

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 8

Fewer Than Expected

02.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.03

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

77%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

92%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

18%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Frequent

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.19

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.34

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.77

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.80

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.22 · Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.37

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.33

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.076

Within Noise

00.1080.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	83.31%	55.33%	34.69%	18.32%
Oakland Raiders	76.87%	47.93%	28.38%	16.51%
Dallas Cowboys	63.31%	39.40%	23.00%	12.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.09%	40.11%	21.98%	12.18%
Minnesota Vikings	74.55%	40.72%	20.09%	8.91%
Denver Broncos	42.36%	24.12%	12.78%	7.15%
Baltimore Colts	57.95%	27.51%	12.55%	6.14%
New England Patriots	51.42%	21.80%	9.14%	4.19%
Miami Dolphins	34.58%	15.14%	6.69%	3.26%
Washington Redskins	40.72%	18.68%	7.93%	3.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.22%	12.86%	5.21%	2.39%
St. Louis Cardinals	41.46%	16.22%	5.51%	1.84%
Chicago Bears	24.07%	8.79%	3.08%	1.06%
San Francisco 49ers	19.13%	6.62%	2.04%	0.64%
Houston Oilers	11.91%	4.25%	1.47%	0.62%
Detroit Lions	19.92%	5.66%	1.52%	0.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	12.44%	3.53%	0.98%	0.34%
Atlanta Falcons	12.26%	3.82%	1.08%	0.29%
San Diego Chargers	6.87%	2.27%	0.73%	0.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.93%	1.35%	0.33%	0.09%
New York Giants	5.12%	1.29%	0.33%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	5.66%	1.18%	0.25%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	5.36%	0.91%	0.16%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.62%	0.30%	0.05%	0.02%
New York Jets	0.55%	0.07%	0.01%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.83%	0.08%	0.01%	<0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.28%	0.05%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.21%	0.02%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			57.8%7.29%	71.6%3.00%	44.6%9.42%	64.3%2.86%	82.0%0.38%				39.2%17.20%	42.4%15.95%	68.8%1.78%	84.5%0.07%
Buffalo Bills			17.4%0.09%	9.5%0.02%	6.2%0.11%	25.0%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%				8.1%0.28%	9.2%0.27%	15.0%0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	42.2%7.29%	82.6%0.09%			38.1%4.25%		68.9%0.13%	45.4%3.54%	47.5%6.29%	90.0%0.07%	33.0%8.93%		62.3%0.61%	78.3%0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.4%3.00%	90.5%0.02%			25.7%1.81%		57.4%0.06%	31.1%1.64%	33.8%2.26%	77.4%0.03%	22.1%3.36%		45.8%0.24%	66.7%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	55.4%9.42%	93.8%0.11%	61.9%4.25%	74.3%1.81%		69.4%1.55%		59.1%5.66%	59.1%8.70%	89.3%0.10%		48.0%10.76%
Houston Oilers	35.7%2.86%	75.0%0.04%			30.6%1.55%		73.3%0.04%	41.0%1.29%	41.6%2.44%	93.8%0.02%	28.7%3.42%		59.1%0.25%	66.7%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.0%0.38%	50.0%<0.01%	31.1%0.13%	42.6%0.06%		26.7%0.04%		12.0%0.22%	18.7%0.28%	60.0%<0.01%		13.4%0.50%
Miami Dolphins			54.6%3.54%	68.9%1.64%	40.9%5.66%	59.0%1.29%	88.0%0.22%				36.9%11.16%	40.7%10.27%	62.9%0.78%	85.2%0.03%
New England Patriots			52.5%6.29%	66.2%2.26%	40.9%8.70%	58.4%2.44%	81.3%0.28%				34.8%15.61%	37.7%14.47%	65.1%1.30%	86.4%0.06%
New York Jets			10.0%0.07%	22.6%0.03%	10.7%0.10%	6.2%0.02%	40.0%<0.01%				12.7%0.16%	11.1%0.16%	11.1%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	60.8%17.20%	91.9%0.28%	67.0%8.93%	77.9%3.36%		71.3%3.42%		63.1%11.16%	65.2%15.61%	87.3%0.16%		52.6%16.74%
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.6%15.95%	90.8%0.27%			52.0%10.76%		86.6%0.50%	59.3%10.27%	62.3%14.47%	88.9%0.16%	47.4%16.74%		74.3%1.88%	83.9%0.09%
San Diego Chargers	31.2%1.78%	85.0%0.02%	37.7%0.61%	54.2%0.24%		40.9%0.25%		37.1%0.78%	34.9%1.30%	88.9%<0.01%		25.7%1.88%
Seattle Seahawks	15.5%0.07%		21.7%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%		14.8%0.03%	13.6%0.06%			16.1%0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		41.5%0.80%	19.4%3.31%	52.1%0.61%	57.0%0.20%		25.7%3.33%		54.5%0.19%	52.5%0.18%		41.2%1.97%	70.0%0.01%	32.5%1.65%
Chicago Bears	58.5%0.80%		26.3%6.57%			25.3%6.95%		71.5%0.29%	63.2%0.36%	57.3%0.40%	56.3%1.47%	50.4%3.51%		42.3%3.71%
Dallas Cowboys	80.6%3.31%	73.7%6.57%		80.9%5.22%	84.9%1.65%	47.6%20.23%	57.6%19.93%	90.8%1.50%			77.5%4.85%		96.3%0.05%
Detroit Lions	47.9%0.61%		19.1%5.22%			19.2%5.99%		70.5%0.24%	53.0%0.32%	49.8%0.29%	44.1%1.00%	40.5%3.18%		32.8%3.06%
Green Bay Packers	43.0%0.20%		15.1%1.65%			12.2%1.60%		63.8%0.06%	43.8%0.09%	38.9%0.07%	37.0%0.28%	26.9%0.93%		24.3%0.79%
Los Angeles Rams		74.7%6.95%	52.4%20.23%	80.8%5.99%	87.8%1.60%		60.3%14.96%		84.3%2.13%	82.0%1.88%		74.0%14.99%	93.2%0.07%	67.4%14.50%
Minnesota Vikings	74.3%3.33%		42.4%19.93%			39.7%14.96%		85.8%1.54%	77.5%1.69%	77.3%1.72%	70.2%5.03%	65.5%13.17%		58.6%13.17%
New Orleans Saints		28.5%0.29%	9.2%1.50%	29.5%0.24%	36.2%0.06%		14.2%1.54%		21.3%0.07%	35.4%0.07%		23.6%0.74%	0.0%<0.01%	19.7%0.84%
New York Giants	45.5%0.19%	36.8%0.36%		47.0%0.32%	56.2%0.09%	15.7%2.13%	22.5%1.69%	78.7%0.07%			38.1%0.27%		50.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	47.5%0.18%	42.7%0.40%		50.2%0.29%	61.1%0.07%	18.0%1.88%	22.7%1.72%	64.6%0.07%			42.1%0.31%		100.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		43.7%1.47%	22.5%4.85%	55.9%1.00%	63.0%0.28%		29.8%5.03%		61.9%0.27%	57.9%0.31%		41.6%2.93%	90.0%0.01%	36.4%2.97%
St. Louis Cardinals	58.8%1.97%	49.6%3.51%		59.5%3.18%	73.1%0.93%	26.0%14.99%	34.5%13.17%	76.4%0.74%			58.4%2.93%		80.0%0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.0%0.01%		3.7%0.05%			6.8%0.07%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.01%	20.0%0.03%		7.7%0.03%
Washington Redskins	67.5%1.65%	57.7%3.71%		67.2%3.06%	75.7%0.79%	32.6%14.50%	41.4%13.17%	80.3%0.84%			63.6%2.97%		92.3%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		62.5%<0.01%	56.0%1.76%	69.2%0.49%	42.6%3.33%	61.1%0.56%	85.0%0.04%	49.7%2.41%	53.6%3.65%	90.9%0.01%	39.1%8.49%	42.6%6.45%	64.0%0.30%	100.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	37.5%<0.01%		25.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%		3.4%0.03%	5.9%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	44.0%1.76%	75.0%<0.01%		71.5%0.17%	38.8%1.55%	51.8%0.19%	77.8%0.03%	48.0%0.83%	46.6%1.32%	100.0%<0.01%	34.9%4.01%	37.8%2.84%	65.1%0.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	30.8%0.49%		28.5%0.17%		26.2%0.49%	37.2%0.04%	85.7%<0.01%	39.7%0.25%	34.9%0.31%	100.0%<0.01%	23.9%1.02%	24.2%0.72%	30.0%0.03%
Denver Broncos	57.4%3.33%	100.0%<0.01%	61.2%1.55%	73.8%0.49%		66.9%0.57%	73.7%0.02%	58.9%1.78%	58.9%2.74%	75.0%<0.01%	46.0%7.34%	48.5%6.08%	78.0%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers	38.9%0.56%		48.2%0.19%	62.8%0.04%	33.1%0.57%		83.3%0.01%	42.5%0.25%	42.0%0.40%	100.0%<0.01%	27.5%1.29%	31.5%0.87%	55.8%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.0%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	22.2%0.03%	14.3%<0.01%	26.3%0.02%	16.7%0.01%		40.0%0.02%	27.6%0.03%		13.2%0.07%	11.3%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	50.3%2.41%	40.0%<0.01%	52.0%0.83%	60.3%0.25%	41.1%1.78%	57.5%0.25%	60.0%0.02%		53.9%1.71%	42.9%<0.01%	37.6%4.35%	39.8%3.36%	68.2%0.16%	80.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	46.4%3.65%	100.0%0.01%	53.4%1.32%	65.1%0.31%	41.1%2.74%	58.0%0.40%	72.4%0.03%	46.1%1.71%		87.5%<0.01%	36.1%6.48%	38.3%4.93%	57.7%0.21%	50.0%<0.01%
New York Jets	9.1%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		57.1%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%		0.0%0.01%	15.4%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	60.9%8.49%	96.6%0.03%	65.1%4.01%	76.1%1.02%	54.0%7.34%	72.5%1.29%	86.8%0.07%	62.4%4.35%	63.9%6.48%	100.0%0.01%		53.0%14.19%	70.4%0.62%	90.0%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.4%6.45%	94.1%0.02%	62.2%2.84%	75.8%0.72%	51.5%6.08%	68.5%0.87%	88.7%0.07%	60.2%3.36%	61.7%4.93%	84.6%0.01%	47.0%14.19%		71.8%0.56%	100.0%0.01%
San Diego Chargers	36.0%0.30%	50.0%<0.01%	34.9%0.15%	70.0%0.03%	22.0%0.19%	44.2%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	31.8%0.16%	42.3%0.21%	50.0%<0.01%	29.6%0.62%	28.2%0.56%
Seattle Seahawks	0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		10.0%0.01%	0.0%0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		44.2%0.17%	22.6%0.81%	54.5%0.10%	54.2%0.02%	19.9%1.18%	29.4%0.88%	40.0%0.01%	50.0%0.02%	55.6%0.02%	52.7%0.06%	37.7%0.26%		37.5%0.30%
Chicago Bears	55.8%0.17%		28.8%1.80%	58.1%0.15%	69.0%0.03%	27.7%3.15%	35.6%1.84%	74.2%0.03%	59.4%0.03%	64.6%0.05%	58.2%0.31%	51.4%0.55%		43.5%0.68%
Dallas Cowboys	77.4%0.81%	71.2%1.80%		78.3%1.08%	83.3%0.23%	48.3%15.65%	56.1%9.47%	85.9%0.18%	79.6%0.26%	79.1%0.29%	75.0%1.29%	72.0%3.85%	83.3%<0.01%	63.3%4.49%
Detroit Lions	45.5%0.10%	41.9%0.15%	21.7%1.08%		47.1%0.02%	20.5%2.17%	29.1%1.10%	56.0%0.03%	55.6%0.03%	44.4%0.03%	39.3%0.17%	42.4%0.37%		33.0%0.42%
Green Bay Packers	45.8%0.02%	31.0%0.03%	16.7%0.23%	52.9%0.02%		14.2%0.45%	16.8%0.19%	36.4%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	83.3%<0.01%	31.8%0.04%	37.9%0.10%		31.6%0.08%
Los Angeles Rams	80.1%1.18%	72.3%3.15%	51.7%15.65%	79.5%2.17%	85.8%0.45%		59.8%17.57%	91.6%0.26%	83.2%0.43%	81.4%0.43%	76.3%2.10%	72.8%5.62%	100.0%<0.01%	65.2%6.31%
Minnesota Vikings	70.6%0.88%	64.4%1.84%	43.9%9.47%	70.9%1.10%	83.2%0.19%	40.2%17.57%		88.9%0.21%	74.3%0.27%	76.3%0.30%	69.5%1.50%	64.8%3.35%	83.3%<0.01%	56.8%4.03%
New Orleans Saints	60.0%0.01%	25.8%0.03%	14.1%0.18%	44.0%0.03%	63.6%0.01%	8.4%0.26%	11.1%0.21%		50.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	52.4%0.02%	26.4%0.05%		25.0%0.09%
New York Giants	50.0%0.02%	40.6%0.03%	20.4%0.26%	44.4%0.03%	75.0%<0.01%	16.8%0.43%	25.7%0.27%	50.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	44.2%0.04%	39.3%0.09%		28.8%0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	44.4%0.02%	35.4%0.05%	20.9%0.29%	55.6%0.03%	16.7%<0.01%	18.6%0.43%	23.7%0.30%	87.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		35.6%0.04%	34.8%0.07%		24.8%0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	47.3%0.06%	41.8%0.31%	25.0%1.29%	60.7%0.17%	68.2%0.04%	23.7%2.10%	30.5%1.50%	47.6%0.02%	55.8%0.04%	64.4%0.04%		44.7%0.45%	0.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.60%
St. Louis Cardinals	62.3%0.26%	48.6%0.55%	28.0%3.85%	57.6%0.37%	62.1%0.10%	27.2%5.62%	35.2%3.35%	73.6%0.05%	60.7%0.09%	65.2%0.07%	55.3%0.45%		100.0%<0.01%	43.6%1.46%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			16.7%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%				100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins	62.5%0.30%	56.5%0.68%	36.7%4.49%	67.0%0.42%	68.4%0.08%	34.8%6.31%	43.2%4.03%	75.0%0.09%	71.2%0.11%	75.2%0.10%	64.4%0.60%	56.4%1.46%	50.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts	72.8%0.12%	67.1%0.37%	44.1%2.88%	73.8%0.19%	80.0%0.03%	42.8%4.48%	51.0%2.49%	88.2%0.02%	66.7%0.04%	73.0%0.04%	64.7%0.27%	60.8%0.71%		55.6%0.92%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	71.2%0.07%	56.3%0.17%	38.0%1.22%	74.7%0.08%	72.7%0.01%	40.8%1.78%	48.7%1.03%	60.0%<0.01%	71.4%0.01%	52.6%0.02%	59.5%0.12%	59.7%0.30%		54.2%0.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	42.9%0.01%	55.2%0.03%	27.7%0.24%	53.8%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	25.1%0.32%	41.7%0.20%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	47.1%0.02%	41.7%0.06%		47.4%0.08%
Denver Broncos	76.7%0.13%	65.1%0.38%	50.6%2.82%	80.3%0.21%	82.4%0.03%	50.5%4.57%	58.0%2.55%	100.0%0.03%	72.9%0.05%	72.4%0.06%	72.5%0.27%	66.6%0.66%		63.8%1.03%
Houston Oilers	63.6%0.01%	52.4%0.04%	36.2%0.32%	48.3%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%	36.0%0.52%	47.8%0.30%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	59.3%0.03%	50.0%0.08%		52.7%0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	22.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	35.3%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%				100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	69.7%0.07%	58.2%0.21%	42.2%1.60%	72.6%0.11%	72.7%0.01%	42.5%2.27%	51.7%1.32%	66.7%<0.01%	68.4%0.02%	76.2%0.02%	64.3%0.13%	67.0%0.36%	100.0%<0.01%	56.4%0.56%
New England Patriots	62.4%0.09%	60.7%0.27%	40.6%2.13%	70.6%0.12%	54.5%0.02%	39.4%3.15%	48.2%1.83%	81.8%0.01%	75.9%0.03%	63.0%0.03%	60.0%0.19%	60.9%0.53%	100.0%<0.01%	54.1%0.73%
New York Jets			33.3%<0.01%			25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%							0.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	76.4%0.34%	68.0%0.90%	52.3%6.64%	76.6%0.41%	88.0%0.07%	52.6%9.71%	60.3%5.71%	93.0%0.04%	81.8%0.09%	78.7%0.07%	74.4%0.59%	72.8%1.57%		66.6%2.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	74.8%0.22%	70.3%0.68%	48.4%4.98%	80.1%0.34%	79.6%0.05%	49.3%7.62%	58.5%4.48%	86.5%0.04%	80.5%0.08%	73.1%0.08%	71.1%0.42%	70.3%1.18%	100.0%<0.01%	63.2%1.82%
San Diego Chargers	58.3%0.01%	50.0%0.02%	34.6%0.16%	71.4%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	31.3%0.25%	38.8%0.15%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	70.0%0.01%	39.6%0.05%		50.9%0.06%
Seattle Seahawks			0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons															27.2%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	28.8%0.07%	57.1%0.01%	23.3%0.13%	36.4%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	30.3%0.07%	37.6%0.09%		23.6%0.34%	25.2%0.22%	41.7%0.01%
Chicago Bears															32.9%0.37%		43.7%0.17%	44.8%0.03%	34.9%0.38%	47.6%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	41.8%0.21%	39.3%0.27%		32.0%0.90%	29.7%0.68%	50.0%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys															55.9%2.88%	100.0%<0.01%	62.0%1.22%	72.3%0.24%	49.4%2.82%	63.8%0.32%	77.8%0.02%	57.8%1.60%	59.4%2.13%	66.7%<0.01%	47.7%6.64%	51.6%4.98%	65.4%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions															26.2%0.19%		25.3%0.08%	46.2%0.01%	19.7%0.21%	51.7%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	27.4%0.11%	29.4%0.12%		23.4%0.41%	19.9%0.34%	28.6%0.01%
Green Bay Packers															20.0%0.03%		27.3%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	17.6%0.03%	75.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.01%	45.5%0.02%		12.0%0.07%	20.4%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams															57.2%4.48%	100.0%<0.01%	59.2%1.78%	74.9%0.32%	49.5%4.57%	64.0%0.52%	64.7%0.02%	57.5%2.27%	60.6%3.15%	75.0%<0.01%	47.4%9.71%	50.7%7.62%	68.7%0.25%	100.0%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings															49.0%2.49%		51.3%1.03%	58.3%0.20%	42.0%2.55%	52.2%0.30%	66.7%<0.01%	48.3%1.32%	51.8%1.83%	100.0%<0.01%	39.7%5.71%	41.5%4.48%	61.2%0.15%
New Orleans Saints															11.8%0.02%		40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%		7.0%0.04%	13.5%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%
New York Giants															33.3%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	27.1%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%		31.6%0.02%	24.1%0.03%		18.2%0.09%	19.5%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															27.0%0.04%		47.4%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	27.6%0.06%	33.3%<0.01%		23.8%0.02%	37.0%0.03%		21.3%0.07%	26.9%0.08%	50.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers															35.3%0.27%	50.0%<0.01%	40.5%0.12%	52.9%0.02%	27.5%0.27%	40.7%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	35.7%0.13%	40.0%0.19%		25.6%0.59%	28.9%0.42%	30.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals															39.2%0.71%	100.0%<0.01%	40.3%0.30%	58.3%0.06%	33.4%0.66%	50.0%0.08%	33.3%<0.01%	33.0%0.36%	39.1%0.53%		27.2%1.57%	29.7%1.18%	60.4%0.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Washington Redskins															44.4%0.92%	100.0%<0.01%	45.8%0.38%	52.6%0.08%	36.2%1.03%	47.3%0.13%	0.0%<0.01%	43.6%0.56%	45.9%0.73%	100.0%<0.01%	33.4%2.22%	36.8%1.82%	49.1%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	77.03%	45.78%	22.78%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	58.16%	34.69%	18.18%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	66.15%	33.35%	17.03%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	52.79%	23.80%	13.25%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.84%	21.98%	11.45%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	47.22%	19.53%	8.95%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	33.85%	14.83%	6.43%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Chicago Bears	22.97%	6.04%	1.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts			47.2%100.00%
Denver Broncos				58.2%100.00%
Oakland Raiders	52.8%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers		41.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears		23.0%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys	77.0%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams				66.1%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings			33.9%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		35.0%27.37%		50.1%19.84%
Denver Broncos	65.0%27.37%		54.9%30.79%
Oakland Raiders		45.1%30.79%		45.1%22.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.9%19.84%		54.9%22.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears			23.9%15.08%	31.0%7.89%
Dallas Cowboys			57.2%51.07%	63.8%25.96%
Los Angeles Rams	76.1%15.08%	42.8%51.07%
Minnesota Vikings	69.0%7.89%	36.2%25.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Baltimore Colts	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts	61.9%1.22%	44.3%8.88%	42.7%6.54%	50.9%2.89%
Denver Broncos	69.2%2.09%	50.9%15.95%	49.5%11.49%	56.6%5.16%
Oakland Raiders	69.6%1.40%	54.0%10.93%	52.8%7.90%	61.6%3.57%
Pittsburgh Steelers	70.0%1.34%	50.2%10.01%	49.5%7.42%	56.5%3.21%
Chicago Bears					38.1%1.22%	30.8%2.09%	30.4%1.40%	30.0%1.34%
Dallas Cowboys					55.7%8.88%	49.1%15.95%	46.0%10.93%	49.8%10.01%
Los Angeles Rams					57.3%6.54%	50.5%11.49%	47.2%7.90%	50.5%7.42%
Minnesota Vikings					49.1%2.89%	43.4%5.16%	38.4%3.57%	43.5%3.21%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 22.78% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

77.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

63.80%

Win Prob

57.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.37%

Win Prob

49.08%

Denver Broncos 18.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

51.24%

Win Prob

64.95%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

44.69%

Win Prob

50.92%

Los Angeles Rams 17.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

65.57%

Win Prob

42.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.08%

Win Prob

50.50%

Oakland Raiders 13.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

58.28%

Win Prob

45.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

44.59%

Win Prob

54.05%

Pittsburgh Steelers 11.45% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

54.90%

Win Prob

54.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

43.89%

Win Prob

50.20%

Baltimore Colts 8.95% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

50.88%

Win Prob

50.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

44.00%

Win Prob

44.34%

Minnesota Vikings 6.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

63.28%

Win Prob

36.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

34.82%

Win Prob

43.40%

Chicago Bears 1.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.97%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

59.52%

Win Prob

23.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

33.35%

Win Prob

30.82%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1977-09-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-6	1404.62	1608.01	29.58%	70.17%	+21.99	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-10	1426.61	1550.76	26.35%	73.41%	-4.99	1-1
1977-10-02	New York Giants	W 17-3	1421.62	1441.88	54.64%	45.07%	+15.96	2-1
1977-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 7-0	1437.58	1477.84	36.68%	63.04%	+15.76	3-1
1977-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-3	1453.34	1373.32	53.65%	46.06%	-8.78	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-10	1444.56	1468.61	38.87%	60.84%	+14.09	4-2
1977-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1458.65	1613.15	35.75%	63.98%	-8.96	4-3
1977-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-10	1449.69	1479.43	53.28%	46.42%	-13.33	4-4
1977-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 17-6	1436.36	1478.39	51.52%	48.19%	+15.12	5-4
1977-11-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-21	1451.48	1374.11	53.27%	46.44%	-5.04	5-5
1977-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-0	1446.44	1229.21	71.80%	27.95%	+10.91	6-5
1977-12-04	New England Patriots	L 10-16	1457.35	1577.21	40.44%	59.27%	-9.37	6-6
1977-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-23	1447.98	1673.72	16.64%	83.19%	-6.30	6-7
1977-12-18	New Orleans Saints	W 35-7	1441.68	1332.46	71.71%	28.05%	+14.05	7-7
1977-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-14	1582.36	1318.50	76.89%	22.89%	+8.39	1-0
1977-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 20-12	1590.75	1352.79	74.15%	25.62%	+6.85	2-0
1977-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1597.60	1389.26	81.74%	18.07%	+2.96	3-0
1977-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 45-28	1600.56	1557.62	63.40%	36.32%	+14.18	4-0
1977-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-6	1614.74	1416.67	69.52%	30.22%	+9.48	5-0
1977-10-23	@ New England Patriots	L 3-17	1624.22	1579.19	48.62%	51.08%	-17.20	5-1
1977-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-21	1607.02	1679.83	47.09%	52.61%	+15.73	6-1
1977-11-07	Washington Redskins	W 10-3	1622.75	1542.51	68.21%	31.53%	+7.89	7-1
1977-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1630.64	1363.93	77.19%	22.60%	+9.08	8-1
1977-11-20	New York Jets	W 33-12	1639.72	1329.67	88.92%	10.95%	+4.74	9-1
1977-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-27	1644.46	1645.20	42.10%	57.61%	-14.91	9-2
1977-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-17	1629.55	1596.73	46.87%	52.84%	-14.70	9-3
1977-12-11	Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1614.85	1440.54	78.65%	21.15%	-12.87	9-4
1977-12-18	New England Patriots	W 30-24	1601.98	1595.23	58.45%	41.26%	+9.56	10-4
1977-09-18	Miami Dolphins	L 0-13	1413.45	1517.36	42.67%	57.04%	-14.56	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-26	1398.89	1556.82	22.76%	77.02%	-9.63	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1389.26	1597.60	18.07%	81.74%	-2.96	0-3
1977-10-09	New York Jets	L 19-24	1386.30	1357.89	61.44%	38.28%	-12.98	0-4
1977-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 3-0	1373.32	1453.34	46.06%	53.65%	+8.78	1-4
1977-10-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-27	1382.10	1505.87	39.90%	59.81%	-12.52	1-5
1977-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-56	1369.58	1293.70	53.05%	46.65%	-31.33	1-6
1977-11-06	@ New England Patriots	W 24-14	1338.25	1601.47	13.86%	85.98%	+25.68	2-6
1977-11-13	Baltimore Colts	L 13-31	1363.93	1630.64	22.60%	77.19%	-9.07	2-7
1977-11-20	New England Patriots	L 7-20	1354.86	1560.92	29.26%	70.49%	-9.99	2-8
1977-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-34	1344.87	1673.10	9.97%	89.91%	-4.32	2-9
1977-12-04	Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1340.55	1532.48	30.97%	68.77%	-9.27	2-10
1977-12-11	@ New York Jets	W 14-10	1331.28	1332.90	41.98%	57.73%	+10.92	3-10
1977-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-31	1342.20	1602.78	14.04%	85.80%	-5.47	3-11
1977-09-18	Detroit Lions	W 30-20	1489.64	1491.15	57.29%	42.42%	+12.69	1-0
1977-09-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-16	1502.33	1548.07	35.95%	63.77%	-5.89	1-1
1977-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 24-42	1496.44	1393.84	70.93%	28.82%	-28.44	1-2
1977-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1468.00	1607.70	37.72%	61.99%	+5.86	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-22	1473.86	1632.87	22.65%	77.13%	-5.25	2-3
1977-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-16	1468.61	1444.56	60.84%	38.87%	-14.09	2-4
1977-10-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-0	1454.52	1429.19	45.79%	53.91%	+25.99	3-4
1977-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-47	1480.51	1495.93	40.06%	59.66%	-25.98	3-5
1977-11-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-27	1454.53	1417.68	62.58%	37.14%	+3.51	4-5
1977-11-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-7	1458.04	1614.59	35.48%	64.25%	+10.52	5-5
1977-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-14	1468.56	1467.91	42.30%	57.41%	+22.38	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1490.94	1218.31	77.78%	22.01%	+6.59	7-5
1977-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1497.53	1376.48	73.06%	26.70%	+8.38	8-5
1977-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 12-9	1505.91	1417.73	54.81%	44.90%	+7.35	9-5
1977-09-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-13	1597.80	1496.26	70.80%	28.94%	-21.16	0-1
1977-09-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 42-20	1576.64	1310.11	86.21%	13.64%	+6.05	1-1
1977-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-24	1582.69	1477.70	57.19%	42.52%	-24.78	1-2
1977-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-7	1557.91	1435.25	59.66%	40.05%	+11.99	2-2
1977-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1569.90	1664.14	29.81%	69.93%	-6.91	2-3
1977-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 13-24	1562.99	1615.25	50.04%	49.66%	-15.70	2-4
1977-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1547.29	1501.83	63.73%	35.99%	+5.90	3-4
1977-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-7	1553.19	1535.42	44.72%	54.99%	+9.00	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-42	1562.19	1594.37	37.77%	61.95%	-20.21	4-5
1977-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1541.98	1568.13	53.79%	45.91%	+10.63	5-5
1977-11-27	New York Giants	W 30-13	1552.61	1406.17	75.84%	23.94%	+9.34	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-7	1561.95	1397.90	65.23%	34.50%	+14.60	7-5
1977-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1576.55	1672.33	43.82%	55.89%	+13.99	8-5
1977-12-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-21	1590.54	1535.88	50.00%	49.70%	-10.58	8-6
1977-09-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-3	1496.26	1597.80	28.94%	70.80%	+21.16	1-0
1977-09-26	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1517.42	1582.88	48.15%	51.56%	+8.45	2-0
1977-10-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-28	1525.87	1678.70	35.97%	63.76%	-12.74	2-1
1977-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 10-26	1513.13	1680.35	34.09%	65.64%	-12.90	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-23	1500.23	1516.26	39.97%	59.74%	+5.64	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-16	1505.87	1382.10	59.81%	39.90%	+12.53	4-2
1977-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-7	1518.40	1422.16	70.17%	29.58%	+17.02	5-2
1977-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-10	1535.42	1553.19	54.99%	44.72%	-9.00	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-35	1526.42	1646.69	26.78%	72.98%	-5.07	5-4
1977-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 21-7	1521.35	1421.47	56.47%	43.24%	+15.30	6-4
1977-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-9	1536.65	1651.82	41.09%	58.62%	-11.66	6-5
1977-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-37	1524.99	1494.03	46.60%	53.10%	-21.14	6-6
1977-12-11	Houston Oilers	L 15-19	1503.85	1525.59	54.42%	45.28%	-10.29	6-7
1977-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-20	1493.56	1336.46	64.32%	35.40%	-6.08	6-8
1977-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1579.68	1630.72	35.25%	64.47%	+14.92	1-0
1977-09-25	New York Giants	W 41-21	1594.60	1452.19	75.41%	24.36%	+10.31	2-0
1977-10-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1604.91	1285.77	89.43%	10.45%	+3.95	3-0
1977-10-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-24	1608.86	1541.41	51.84%	47.86%	+11.09	4-0
1977-10-16	Washington Redskins	W 34-16	1619.95	1574.48	63.73%	35.99%	+14.45	5-0
1977-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1634.40	1427.83	70.55%	29.20%	+6.77	6-0
1977-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 37-0	1641.17	1470.34	78.31%	21.48%	+12.36	7-0
1977-11-06	@ New York Giants	W 24-10	1653.53	1420.54	73.60%	26.16%	+9.27	8-0
1977-11-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1662.80	1590.12	67.26%	32.47%	-16.82	8-1
1977-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-28	1645.98	1651.76	41.40%	58.31%	-15.17	8-2
1977-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1630.81	1543.76	54.65%	45.06%	+11.28	9-2
1977-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1642.09	1414.38	83.34%	16.48%	+4.93	10-2
1977-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-35	1647.02	1488.77	64.47%	35.25%	+8.82	11-2
1977-12-18	Denver Broncos	W 14-6	1655.84	1678.22	54.33%	45.37%	+12.14	12-2
1977-09-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 7-0	1545.79	1559.10	55.62%	44.08%	+11.03	1-0
1977-09-25	Buffalo Bills	W 26-6	1556.82	1398.89	77.02%	22.76%	+9.63	2-0
1977-10-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-13	1566.45	1304.07	76.74%	23.04%	+7.23	3-0
1977-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1573.68	1425.67	76.00%	23.77%	+9.00	4-0
1977-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-7	1582.68	1693.25	27.89%	71.87%	+32.57	5-0
1977-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-13	1615.25	1562.99	49.66%	50.04%	+15.69	6-0
1977-10-30	Oakland Raiders	L 14-24	1630.94	1662.58	53.01%	46.70%	-15.85	6-1
1977-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-7	1615.09	1664.10	50.51%	49.19%	+17.41	7-1
1977-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1632.50	1480.08	63.70%	36.02%	+5.91	8-1
1977-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-7	1638.41	1414.17	72.61%	27.15%	+6.79	9-1
1977-11-27	Baltimore Colts	W 27-13	1645.20	1644.46	57.61%	42.10%	+14.91	10-1
1977-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-14	1660.11	1537.58	59.64%	40.07%	+11.99	11-1
1977-12-11	San Diego Chargers	W 17-9	1672.10	1515.17	76.92%	22.86%	+6.12	12-1
1977-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-14	1678.22	1655.84	45.37%	54.33%	-12.14	12-2
1977-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-30	1491.15	1489.64	42.42%	57.29%	-12.69	0-1
1977-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 23-19	1478.46	1399.85	68.01%	31.73%	+6.00	1-1
1977-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-13	1484.46	1418.65	66.39%	33.34%	+6.32	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1490.78	1626.60	25.07%	74.70%	-6.28	2-2
1977-10-16	Green Bay Packers	W 10-6	1484.50	1423.27	65.80%	33.93%	+6.42	3-2
1977-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-28	1490.92	1453.76	47.49%	52.22%	-20.58	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-37	1470.34	1641.17	21.48%	78.31%	-12.37	3-4
1977-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 20-0	1457.97	1500.49	51.45%	48.26%	+20.42	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-17	1478.39	1436.36	48.19%	51.52%	-15.12	4-5
1977-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-7	1463.27	1233.85	83.48%	16.35%	+4.64	5-5
1977-11-24	Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1467.91	1468.56	57.41%	42.30%	-22.38	5-6
1977-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-10	1445.53	1371.49	52.79%	46.91%	-4.99	5-7
1977-12-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1440.54	1614.85	21.15%	78.65%	+12.86	6-7
1977-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-30	1453.40	1597.88	37.08%	62.64%	-10.52	6-8
1977-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1444.18	1409.80	47.09%	52.61%	+9.95	1-0
1977-09-25	Houston Oilers	L 10-16	1454.13	1492.61	52.03%	47.68%	-12.05	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-19	1442.08	1619.77	20.82%	78.97%	-6.83	1-2
1977-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1435.25	1557.91	40.05%	59.66%	-11.98	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-10	1423.27	1484.50	33.93%	65.80%	-6.42	1-4
1977-10-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-0	1416.85	1265.56	63.55%	36.17%	+12.34	2-4
1977-10-30	Chicago Bears	L 0-26	1429.19	1454.52	53.91%	45.79%	-26.00	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-20	1403.19	1405.13	41.93%	57.78%	-12.54	2-6
1977-11-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-24	1390.65	1628.65	25.61%	74.15%	-10.29	2-7
1977-11-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-10	1380.36	1541.64	22.42%	77.36%	-2.12	2-8
1977-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-13	1378.24	1604.07	26.97%	72.79%	-6.75	2-9
1977-12-04	Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1371.49	1445.53	46.91%	52.79%	+4.99	3-9
1977-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-21	1376.48	1497.53	26.70%	73.06%	-8.38	3-10
1977-12-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-14	1368.10	1479.95	41.56%	58.16%	+7.78	4-10
1977-09-18	New York Jets	W 20-0	1481.11	1364.29	72.59%	27.17%	+11.50	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1492.61	1454.13	47.68%	52.03%	+12.05	2-0
1977-10-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1504.66	1541.93	37.08%	62.64%	-15.69	2-1
1977-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-10	1488.97	1691.44	29.69%	70.06%	+27.29	3-1
1977-10-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-24	1516.26	1500.23	59.74%	39.97%	-5.65	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-27	1510.61	1671.05	22.51%	77.28%	-8.78	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-13	1501.83	1547.29	35.99%	63.73%	-5.90	3-4
1977-11-06	Chicago Bears	W 47-0	1495.93	1480.51	59.66%	40.06%	+25.99	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 29-34	1521.92	1683.46	22.40%	77.39%	-4.74	4-5
1977-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 22-10	1517.18	1344.24	66.38%	33.35%	+10.94	5-5
1977-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-20	1528.12	1407.37	73.03%	26.73%	+9.46	6-5
1977-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 14-24	1537.58	1660.11	40.07%	59.64%	-11.99	6-6
1977-12-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-15	1525.59	1503.85	45.28%	54.42%	+10.29	7-6
1977-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-16	1535.88	1590.54	49.70%	50.00%	+10.58	8-6
1977-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 17-21	1459.65	1577.77	27.03%	72.73%	-5.11	0-1
1977-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 7-23	1454.54	1456.04	57.29%	42.42%	-21.67	0-2
1977-10-03	Oakland Raiders	L 28-37	1432.87	1673.15	25.36%	74.40%	-7.20	0-3
1977-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-23	1425.67	1573.68	23.77%	76.00%	-9.00	0-4
1977-10-16	Baltimore Colts	L 6-17	1416.67	1614.74	30.22%	69.52%	-9.49	0-5
1977-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-16	1407.18	1509.27	28.88%	70.87%	+14.98	1-5
1977-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-44	1422.16	1518.40	29.58%	70.17%	-17.03	1-6
1977-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 20-10	1405.13	1403.19	57.78%	41.93%	+12.55	2-6
1977-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-28	1417.68	1454.53	37.14%	62.58%	-3.51	2-7
1977-11-20	Denver Broncos	L 7-14	1414.17	1638.41	27.15%	72.61%	-6.80	2-8
1977-11-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-34	1407.37	1528.12	26.73%	73.03%	-9.47	2-9
1977-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1397.90	1561.95	34.50%	65.23%	-14.60	2-10
1977-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-34	1383.30	1325.76	65.32%	34.41%	-10.69	2-11
1977-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1372.61	1682.67	10.95%	88.92%	-1.03	2-12
1977-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-17	1608.01	1404.62	70.17%	29.58%	-21.99	0-1
1977-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1586.02	1428.28	77.00%	22.78%	+9.64	1-1
1977-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-14	1595.66	1489.88	71.31%	28.45%	+12.04	2-1
1977-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-24	1607.70	1468.00	61.99%	37.72%	-5.86	2-2
1977-10-16	New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1601.84	1405.98	80.65%	19.16%	+4.79	3-2
1977-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-3	1606.63	1638.12	53.03%	46.68%	+24.98	4-2
1977-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 26-27	1631.61	1391.20	74.42%	25.35%	-7.03	4-3
1977-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-0	1624.58	1248.13	92.16%	7.75%	+4.07	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-6	1628.65	1390.65	74.15%	25.61%	+10.28	6-3
1977-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-10	1638.93	1499.57	61.95%	37.77%	+12.89	7-3
1977-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-0	1651.82	1536.65	58.62%	41.09%	+11.67	8-3
1977-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1663.49	1677.42	55.53%	44.17%	+10.23	9-3
1977-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1673.72	1447.98	83.19%	16.64%	+6.30	10-3
1977-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1680.02	1555.14	59.97%	39.75%	-9.82	10-4
1977-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-0	1517.36	1413.45	57.04%	42.67%	+14.56	1-0
1977-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-15	1531.92	1499.90	46.75%	52.95%	+10.01	2-0
1977-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1541.93	1504.66	62.64%	37.08%	+15.69	3-0
1977-10-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 28-45	1557.62	1600.56	36.32%	63.40%	-14.17	3-1
1977-10-16	New York Jets	W 21-17	1543.45	1370.88	78.48%	21.31%	+4.03	4-1
1977-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-13	1547.48	1299.70	84.88%	14.96%	+6.00	5-1
1977-10-30	San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1553.48	1494.30	65.53%	34.19%	-6.19	5-2
1977-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 14-10	1547.29	1359.88	68.21%	31.53%	+5.97	6-2
1977-11-13	New England Patriots	W 17-5	1553.26	1575.80	54.31%	45.40%	+14.87	7-2
1977-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1568.13	1541.98	45.91%	53.79%	-10.64	7-3
1977-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 55-14	1557.49	1611.26	34.90%	64.83%	+39.24	8-3
1977-12-05	Baltimore Colts	W 17-6	1596.73	1629.55	52.84%	46.87%	+14.70	9-3
1977-12-11	@ New England Patriots	L 10-14	1611.43	1586.58	45.73%	53.98%	-8.65	9-4
1977-12-17	Buffalo Bills	W 31-14	1602.78	1342.20	85.80%	14.04%	+5.48	10-4
1977-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1630.72	1579.68	64.47%	35.25%	-14.93	0-1
1977-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-3	1615.79	1289.75	82.62%	17.19%	+3.98	1-1
1977-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1619.77	1442.08	78.97%	20.82%	+6.83	2-1
1977-10-09	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1626.60	1490.78	74.70%	25.07%	+6.27	3-1
1977-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 22-16	1632.87	1473.86	77.13%	22.65%	+5.25	4-1
1977-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-35	1638.12	1606.63	46.68%	53.03%	-24.97	4-2
1977-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1613.15	1458.65	63.98%	35.75%	+8.95	5-2
1977-11-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-27	1622.10	1562.39	65.60%	34.13%	-27.73	5-3
1977-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-10	1594.37	1562.19	61.95%	37.77%	+20.22	6-3
1977-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1614.59	1458.04	64.25%	35.48%	-10.52	6-4
1977-11-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-6	1604.07	1378.24	72.79%	26.97%	+6.75	7-4
1977-12-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-27	1610.82	1491.31	72.89%	26.87%	+2.54	8-4
1977-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-35	1613.36	1667.18	34.89%	64.84%	-15.48	8-5
1977-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-21	1597.88	1453.40	62.64%	37.08%	+10.52	9-5
1977-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1577.77	1459.65	72.73%	27.03%	+5.11	1-0
1977-09-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-30	1582.88	1517.42	51.56%	48.15%	-8.44	1-1
1977-10-02	@ New York Jets	L 27-30	1574.44	1345.93	73.09%	26.67%	-11.96	1-2
1977-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-0	1562.48	1296.84	86.15%	13.70%	+7.21	2-2
1977-10-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-20	1569.69	1518.78	49.46%	50.24%	+9.50	3-2
1977-10-23	Baltimore Colts	W 17-3	1579.19	1624.22	51.08%	48.62%	+17.21	4-2
1977-10-30	New York Jets	W 24-13	1596.40	1364.96	83.64%	16.19%	+5.07	5-2
1977-11-06	Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1601.47	1338.25	85.98%	13.86%	-25.67	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 5-17	1575.80	1553.26	45.40%	54.31%	-14.88	5-4
1977-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1560.92	1354.86	70.49%	29.26%	+9.99	6-4
1977-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-6	1570.91	1420.68	76.23%	23.55%	+6.30	7-4
1977-12-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1577.21	1457.35	59.27%	40.44%	+9.37	8-4
1977-12-11	Miami Dolphins	W 14-10	1586.58	1611.43	53.98%	45.73%	+8.65	9-4
1977-12-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-30	1595.23	1601.98	41.26%	58.45%	-9.56	9-5
1977-09-18	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1409.80	1444.18	52.61%	47.09%	-9.95	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-23	1399.85	1478.46	31.73%	68.01%	-6.01	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 42-24	1393.84	1496.44	28.82%	70.93%	+28.44	1-2
1977-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 0-14	1422.28	1502.48	46.03%	53.67%	-16.30	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1405.98	1601.84	19.16%	80.65%	-4.79	1-4
1977-10-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 31-49	1401.19	1538.65	24.89%	74.88%	-9.99	1-5
1977-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-26	1391.20	1631.61	25.35%	74.42%	+7.03	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-28	1398.23	1414.71	39.91%	59.80%	-17.31	2-6
1977-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-10	1380.92	1492.76	41.56%	58.16%	-6.81	2-7
1977-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-20	1374.11	1451.48	46.44%	53.27%	+5.04	3-7
1977-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1379.15	1486.69	28.24%	71.51%	-4.63	3-8
1977-12-04	New York Jets	L 13-16	1374.52	1322.32	64.62%	35.10%	-10.58	3-9
1977-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-33	1363.94	1211.72	76.44%	23.34%	-31.48	3-10
1977-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-35	1332.46	1441.68	28.05%	71.71%	-14.04	3-11
1977-09-18	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1442.53	1560.42	40.71%	59.00%	+9.66	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-41	1452.19	1594.60	24.36%	75.41%	-10.31	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1441.88	1421.62	45.07%	54.64%	-15.95	1-2
1977-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-28	1425.93	1412.34	59.40%	40.31%	-23.83	1-3
1977-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1402.10	1462.08	48.93%	50.77%	+8.32	2-3
1977-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1410.42	1560.03	23.61%	76.17%	+23.87	3-3
1977-10-31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-28	1434.29	1548.65	27.45%	72.30%	-13.75	3-4
1977-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1420.54	1653.53	26.16%	73.60%	-9.27	3-5
1977-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1411.27	1244.05	65.64%	34.09%	+10.20	4-5
1977-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1421.47	1521.35	43.24%	56.47%	-15.30	4-6
1977-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-30	1406.17	1552.61	23.94%	75.84%	-9.34	4-7
1977-12-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-7	1396.83	1572.03	33.06%	66.67%	+28.18	5-7
1977-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1425.01	1409.45	44.40%	55.30%	-7.28	5-8
1977-12-18	Chicago Bears	L 9-12	1417.73	1505.91	44.90%	54.81%	-7.35	5-9
1977-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-20	1364.29	1481.11	27.17%	72.59%	-11.50	0-1
1977-09-25	Baltimore Colts	L 12-20	1352.79	1590.75	25.62%	74.15%	-6.86	0-2
1977-10-02	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1345.93	1574.44	26.67%	73.09%	+11.96	1-2
1977-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-19	1357.89	1386.30	38.28%	61.44%	+12.99	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1370.88	1543.45	21.31%	78.48%	-4.03	2-3
1977-10-23	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1366.85	1660.69	19.99%	79.81%	-1.89	2-4
1977-10-30	@ New England Patriots	L 13-24	1364.96	1596.40	16.19%	83.64%	-5.08	2-5
1977-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1359.88	1547.29	31.53%	68.21%	-5.97	2-6
1977-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-17	1353.91	1320.01	62.18%	37.54%	-24.24	2-7
1977-11-20	@ Baltimore Colts	L 12-33	1329.67	1639.72	10.95%	88.92%	-4.74	2-8
1977-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1324.93	1666.93	15.93%	83.90%	-2.61	2-9
1977-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-13	1322.32	1374.52	35.10%	64.62%	+10.58	3-9
1977-12-11	Buffalo Bills	L 10-14	1332.90	1331.28	57.73%	41.98%	-10.91	3-10
1977-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-27	1321.99	1416.72	29.76%	69.99%	-14.64	3-11
1977-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1645.69	1465.58	79.20%	20.60%	+9.54	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-7	1655.23	1696.62	36.53%	63.19%	+17.92	2-0
1977-10-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-28	1673.15	1432.87	74.40%	25.36%	+7.20	3-0
1977-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-10	1680.35	1513.13	65.64%	34.09%	+12.90	4-0
1977-10-16	Denver Broncos	L 7-30	1693.25	1582.68	71.87%	27.89%	-32.56	4-1
1977-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 28-27	1660.69	1366.85	79.81%	19.99%	+1.89	5-1
1977-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-14	1662.58	1630.94	46.70%	53.01%	+15.85	6-1
1977-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-7	1678.43	1325.04	91.15%	8.75%	+5.03	7-1
1977-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 34-29	1683.46	1521.92	77.39%	22.40%	+4.73	8-1
1977-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-12	1688.19	1474.18	71.43%	28.32%	-15.09	8-2
1977-11-28	Buffalo Bills	W 34-13	1673.10	1344.87	89.91%	9.97%	+4.32	9-2
1977-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1677.42	1663.49	44.17%	55.53%	-10.24	9-3
1977-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-13	1667.18	1613.36	64.84%	34.89%	+15.49	10-3
1977-12-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1682.67	1372.61	88.92%	10.95%	+1.04	11-3
1977-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-3	1420.35	1297.69	73.25%	26.51%	+7.93	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1428.28	1586.02	22.78%	77.00%	-9.63	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1418.65	1484.46	33.34%	66.39%	-6.31	1-2
1977-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1412.34	1425.93	40.31%	59.40%	+23.82	2-2
1977-10-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1436.16	1530.32	44.04%	55.66%	-8.33	2-3
1977-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1427.83	1634.40	29.20%	70.55%	-6.77	2-4
1977-10-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1421.06	1536.17	27.37%	72.39%	-6.35	2-5
1977-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 28-7	1414.71	1398.23	59.80%	39.91%	+17.31	3-5
1977-11-13	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1432.02	1534.62	42.85%	56.86%	-7.02	3-6
1977-11-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-21	1425.00	1606.94	20.42%	79.37%	-4.32	3-7
1977-11-27	@ New England Patriots	L 6-14	1420.68	1570.91	23.55%	76.23%	-6.30	3-8
1977-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1414.38	1642.09	16.48%	83.34%	-4.93	3-9
1977-12-11	New York Giants	W 17-14	1409.45	1425.01	55.30%	44.40%	+7.27	4-9
1977-12-18	New York Jets	W 27-0	1416.72	1321.99	69.99%	29.76%	+14.63	5-9
1977-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-0	1686.31	1510.21	78.82%	20.98%	+10.31	1-0
1977-09-25	Oakland Raiders	L 7-16	1696.62	1655.23	63.19%	36.53%	-17.92	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-14	1678.70	1525.87	63.76%	35.97%	+12.74	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-27	1691.44	1488.97	70.06%	29.69%	-27.30	2-2
1977-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1664.14	1569.90	69.93%	29.81%	+6.91	3-2
1977-10-23	Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1671.05	1510.61	77.28%	22.51%	+8.78	4-2
1977-10-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-31	1679.83	1607.02	52.61%	47.09%	-15.73	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-21	1664.10	1615.09	49.19%	50.51%	-17.41	4-4
1977-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-31	1646.69	1526.42	72.98%	26.78%	+5.07	5-4
1977-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-13	1651.76	1645.98	58.31%	41.40%	+15.17	6-4
1977-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1666.93	1324.93	83.90%	15.93%	+2.61	7-4
1977-12-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-20	1669.54	1328.55	90.55%	9.33%	+2.79	8-4
1977-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1672.33	1576.55	55.89%	43.82%	-13.98	8-5
1977-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	W 10-9	1658.35	1509.05	63.28%	36.44%	+3.44	9-5
1977-09-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-24	1465.58	1645.69	20.60%	79.20%	-9.54	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1456.04	1454.54	42.42%	57.29%	+21.66	1-1
1977-10-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1477.70	1582.69	42.52%	57.19%	+24.78	2-1
1977-10-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-0	1502.48	1422.28	53.67%	46.03%	+16.30	3-1
1977-10-16	New England Patriots	L 20-24	1518.78	1569.69	50.24%	49.46%	-9.51	3-2
1977-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-21	1509.27	1407.18	70.87%	28.88%	-14.97	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 14-13	1494.30	1553.48	34.19%	65.53%	+6.19	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1500.49	1457.97	48.26%	51.45%	-20.41	4-4
1977-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1480.08	1632.50	36.02%	63.70%	-5.90	4-5
1977-11-20	Oakland Raiders	W 12-7	1474.18	1688.19	28.32%	71.43%	+15.09	5-5
1977-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-28	1489.27	1333.31	64.17%	35.56%	+4.76	6-5
1977-12-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-14	1494.03	1524.99	53.10%	46.60%	+21.14	7-5
1977-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-17	1515.17	1672.10	22.86%	76.92%	-6.12	7-6
1977-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-10	1509.05	1658.35	36.44%	63.28%	-3.45	7-7
1977-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1510.21	1686.31	20.98%	78.82%	-10.31	0-1
1977-09-25	Miami Dolphins	L 15-19	1499.90	1531.92	52.95%	46.75%	-10.02	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-34	1489.88	1595.66	28.45%	71.31%	-12.04	0-3
1977-10-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-7	1477.84	1437.58	63.04%	36.68%	-15.76	0-4
1977-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1462.08	1402.10	50.77%	48.93%	-8.32	0-5
1977-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1453.76	1490.92	52.22%	47.49%	+20.59	1-5
1977-10-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1474.35	1253.21	82.81%	17.01%	+5.08	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 10-3	1479.43	1449.69	46.42%	53.28%	+13.33	3-5
1977-11-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 10-7	1492.76	1380.92	58.16%	41.56%	+6.81	4-5
1977-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-23	1499.57	1638.93	37.77%	61.95%	-12.88	4-6
1977-11-27	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1486.69	1379.15	71.51%	28.24%	+4.62	5-6
1977-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1491.31	1610.82	26.87%	72.89%	-2.54	5-7
1977-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 35-42	1488.77	1647.02	35.25%	64.47%	-8.82	5-8
1977-12-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1479.95	1368.10	58.16%	41.56%	-7.78	5-9
1977-09-18	Baltimore Colts	L 14-29	1318.50	1582.36	22.89%	76.89%	-8.39	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-42	1310.11	1576.64	13.64%	86.21%	-6.04	0-2
1977-10-02	Denver Broncos	L 13-24	1304.07	1566.45	23.04%	76.74%	-7.23	0-3
1977-10-09	@ New England Patriots	L 0-31	1296.84	1562.48	13.70%	86.15%	-7.21	0-4
1977-10-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-23	1289.63	1275.63	59.46%	40.26%	+10.07	1-4
1977-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-31	1299.70	1547.48	14.96%	84.88%	-6.00	1-5
1977-10-30	Buffalo Bills	W 56-17	1293.70	1369.58	46.65%	53.05%	+31.34	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-44	1325.04	1678.43	8.75%	91.15%	-5.03	2-6
1977-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 17-0	1320.01	1353.91	37.54%	62.18%	+24.23	3-6
1977-11-20	Houston Oilers	L 10-22	1344.24	1517.18	33.35%	66.38%	-10.93	3-7
1977-11-27	San Diego Chargers	L 28-30	1333.31	1489.27	35.56%	64.17%	-4.76	3-8
1977-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-30	1328.55	1669.54	9.33%	90.55%	-2.79	3-9
1977-12-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1325.76	1383.30	34.41%	65.32%	+10.70	4-9
1977-12-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-19	1336.46	1493.56	35.40%	64.32%	+6.08	5-9
1977-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-7	1559.10	1545.79	44.08%	55.62%	-11.03	0-1
1977-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1548.07	1502.33	63.77%	35.95%	+5.89	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1553.96	1555.74	41.96%	57.75%	-12.55	1-2
1977-10-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-30	1541.41	1608.86	47.86%	51.84%	-11.09	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1530.32	1436.16	55.66%	44.04%	+8.33	2-3
1977-10-23	New Orleans Saints	W 49-31	1538.65	1401.19	74.88%	24.89%	+10.00	3-3
1977-10-31	New York Giants	W 28-0	1548.65	1434.29	72.30%	27.45%	+13.74	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1562.39	1622.10	34.13%	65.60%	+27.73	5-3
1977-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1590.12	1662.80	32.47%	67.26%	+16.82	6-3
1977-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-16	1606.94	1425.00	79.37%	20.42%	+4.32	7-3
1977-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-55	1611.26	1557.49	64.83%	34.90%	-39.23	7-4
1977-12-04	@ New York Giants	L 7-27	1572.03	1396.83	66.67%	33.06%	-28.18	7-5
1977-12-10	Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1543.85	1541.75	57.80%	41.91%	-13.39	7-6
1977-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-17	1530.46	1243.20	79.20%	20.60%	-23.65	7-7
1977-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-13	1297.69	1420.35	26.51%	73.25%	-7.94	0-1
1977-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 3-9	1289.75	1615.79	17.19%	82.62%	-3.98	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-23	1285.77	1604.91	10.45%	89.43%	-3.95	0-3
1977-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1281.82	1568.30	20.67%	79.12%	-6.19	0-4
1977-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-30	1275.63	1289.63	40.26%	59.46%	-10.07	0-5
1977-10-23	Green Bay Packers	L 0-13	1265.56	1416.85	36.17%	63.55%	-12.35	0-6
1977-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1253.21	1474.35	17.01%	82.81%	-5.08	0-7
1977-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-31	1248.13	1624.58	7.75%	92.16%	-4.08	0-8
1977-11-13	New York Giants	L 0-10	1244.05	1411.27	34.09%	65.64%	-10.20	0-9
1977-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1233.85	1463.27	16.35%	83.48%	-4.64	0-10
1977-11-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-17	1229.21	1446.44	27.95%	71.80%	-10.90	0-11
1977-12-04	Chicago Bears	L 0-10	1218.31	1490.94	22.01%	77.78%	-6.59	0-12
1977-12-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-14	1211.72	1363.94	23.34%	76.44%	+31.48	1-12
1977-12-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-7	1243.20	1530.46	20.60%	79.20%	+23.66	2-12
1977-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1560.42	1442.53	59.00%	40.71%	-9.66	0-1
1977-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-6	1550.76	1426.61	73.41%	26.35%	+4.98	1-1
1977-10-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-14	1555.74	1553.96	57.75%	41.96%	+12.56	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1568.30	1281.82	79.12%	20.67%	+6.18	3-1
1977-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-34	1574.48	1619.95	35.99%	63.73%	-14.45	3-2
1977-10-23	New York Giants	L 6-17	1560.03	1410.42	76.17%	23.61%	-23.86	3-3
1977-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1536.17	1421.06	72.39%	27.37%	+6.34	4-3
1977-11-07	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-10	1542.51	1622.75	31.53%	68.21%	-7.89	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1534.62	1432.02	56.86%	42.85%	+7.02	5-4
1977-11-21	Green Bay Packers	W 10-9	1541.64	1380.36	77.36%	22.42%	+2.12	6-4
1977-11-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-14	1543.76	1630.81	45.06%	54.65%	-11.28	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 10-0	1532.48	1340.55	68.77%	30.97%	+9.27	7-5
1977-12-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-20	1541.75	1543.85	41.91%	57.80%	+13.39	8-5
1977-12-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-14	1555.14	1680.02	39.75%	59.97%	+9.82	9-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1977-12-24	Oakland Raiders	L 31-37	1611.54	1683.71	47.33%	52.67%	-10.93	0-1
1977-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1513.26	1667.98	23.16%	76.84%	-11.96	0-1
1977-12-26	Chicago Bears	W 37-7	1667.98	1513.26	76.84%	23.16%	+11.97	1-0
1978-01-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-6	1679.95	1624.88	65.15%	34.85%	+13.55	2-0
1978-01-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-10	1693.50	1687.52	50.86%	49.14%	+19.10	3-0
1977-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-21	1666.08	1661.79	58.25%	41.75%	+14.19	1-0
1978-01-01	Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1680.27	1694.64	55.62%	44.38%	+7.25	2-0
1978-01-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1687.52	1693.50	49.14%	50.86%	-19.11	2-1
1977-12-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1670.20	1608.40	66.02%	33.98%	-16.47	0-1
1977-12-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-7	1608.40	1670.20	33.98%	66.02%	+16.48	1-0
1978-01-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-23	1624.88	1679.95	34.85%	65.15%	-13.56	1-1
1977-12-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-31	1683.71	1611.54	52.67%	47.33%	+10.93	1-0
1978-01-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1694.64	1680.27	44.38%	55.62%	-7.25	1-1
1977-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-34	1661.79	1666.08	41.75%	58.25%	-14.19	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1977-11-06	13.86%	Buffalo Bills	1338.25	24	@ New England Patriots	1601.47	14
2	1977-12-18	20.60%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1243.20	17	St. Louis Cardinals	1530.46	7
3	1977-12-11	21.15%	Detroit Lions	1440.54	13	@ Baltimore Colts	1614.85	10
4	1977-12-11	23.34%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1211.72	33	@ New Orleans Saints	1363.94	14
5	1977-10-23	23.61%	New York Giants	1410.42	17	@ Washington Redskins	1560.03	6
6	1977-10-30	25.35%	@ New Orleans Saints	1391.20	27	Los Angeles Rams	1631.61	26
7	1977-10-02	26.67%	@ New York Jets	1345.93	30	New England Patriots	1574.44	27
8	1977-10-16	27.89%	Denver Broncos	1582.68	30	@ Oakland Raiders	1693.25	7
9	1977-11-20	28.32%	@ San Diego Chargers	1474.18	12	Oakland Raiders	1688.19	7
10	1977-10-02	28.82%	New Orleans Saints	1393.84	42	@ Chicago Bears	1496.44	24
11	1977-10-23	28.88%	Kansas City Chiefs	1407.18	21	@ San Diego Chargers	1509.27	16
12	1977-09-18	28.94%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1496.26	13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1597.80	3
13	1977-09-18	29.58%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1404.62	17	Los Angeles Rams	1608.01	6
14	1977-10-09	29.69%	@ Houston Oilers	1488.97	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1691.44	10
15	1977-11-14	32.47%	St. Louis Cardinals	1590.12	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1662.80	17
16	1977-12-04	33.06%	@ New York Giants	1396.83	27	St. Louis Cardinals	1572.03	7
17	1977-12-26 *	33.98%	Minnesota Vikings	1608.40	14	@ Los Angeles Rams	1670.20	7
18	1977-11-06	34.13%	St. Louis Cardinals	1562.39	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1622.10	7
19	1977-10-30	34.19%	San Diego Chargers	1494.30	14	@ Miami Dolphins	1553.48	13
20	1977-12-11	34.41%	Seattle Seahawks	1325.76	34	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1383.30	31
21	1977-11-24	34.90%	Miami Dolphins	1557.49	55	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1611.26	14
22	1977-12-04	35.10%	New York Jets	1322.32	16	@ New Orleans Saints	1374.52	13
23	1977-09-18	35.25%	Dallas Cowboys	1579.68	16	@ Minnesota Vikings	1630.72	10
24	1977-12-18	35.40%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1336.46	20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1493.56	19
25	1977-11-20	35.48%	@ Chicago Bears	1458.04	10	Minnesota Vikings	1614.59	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1977-11-24	39.24	Miami Dolphins	55	1557.49	34.90%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1611.26	64.83%
2	1977-10-16	32.57	Denver Broncos	30	1582.68	27.89%	@ Oakland Raiders	7	1693.25	71.87%
3	1977-12-11	31.48	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33	1211.72	23.34%	@ New Orleans Saints	14	1363.94	76.44%
4	1977-10-30	31.34	@ Seattle Seahawks	56	1293.70	46.65%	Buffalo Bills	17	1369.58	53.05%
5	1977-10-02	28.44	New Orleans Saints	42	1393.84	28.82%	@ Chicago Bears	24	1496.44	70.93%
6	1977-12-04	28.18	@ New York Giants	27	1396.83	33.06%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1572.03	66.67%
7	1977-11-06	27.73	St. Louis Cardinals	27	1562.39	34.13%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1622.10	65.60%
8	1977-10-09	27.30	@ Houston Oilers	27	1488.97	29.69%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1691.44	70.06%
9	1977-10-30	26.00	Chicago Bears	26	1454.52	45.79%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1429.19	53.91%
10	1977-11-06	25.99	@ Houston Oilers	47	1495.93	59.66%	Chicago Bears	0	1480.51	40.06%
11	1977-11-06	25.68	Buffalo Bills	24	1338.25	13.86%	@ New England Patriots	14	1601.47	85.98%
12	1977-10-24	24.98	@ Los Angeles Rams	35	1606.63	53.03%	Minnesota Vikings	3	1638.12	46.68%
13	1977-10-02	24.78	@ San Diego Chargers	24	1477.70	42.52%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1582.69	57.19%
14	1977-11-13	24.24	Seattle Seahawks	17	1320.01	37.54%	@ New York Jets	0	1353.91	62.18%
15	1977-10-23	23.87	New York Giants	17	1410.42	23.61%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1560.03	76.17%
16	1977-10-09	23.83	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1412.34	40.31%	@ New York Giants	10	1425.93	59.40%
17	1977-12-18	23.66	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	1243.20	20.60%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1530.46	79.20%
18	1977-11-24	22.38	Chicago Bears	31	1468.56	42.30%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1467.91	57.41%
19	1977-09-18	21.99	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1404.62	29.58%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1608.01	70.17%
20	1977-09-25	21.67	San Diego Chargers	23	1456.04	42.42%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1454.54	57.29%
21	1977-09-18	21.16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1496.26	28.94%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1597.80	70.80%
22	1977-12-04	21.14	@ San Diego Chargers	37	1494.03	53.10%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1524.99	46.60%
23	1977-10-23	20.59	@ San Francisco 49ers	28	1453.76	52.22%	Detroit Lions	7	1490.92	47.49%
24	1977-11-06	20.42	@ Detroit Lions	20	1457.97	51.45%	San Diego Chargers	0	1500.49	48.26%
25	1977-11-13	20.22	@ Minnesota Vikings	42	1594.37	61.95%	Cincinnati Bengals	10	1562.19	37.77%