1976 NFL Season

196 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1974

Biggest Overachiever

New England Patriots

3.51 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.49 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

4.46 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.46 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	4	.714	-	342	138	+204	10.40	-0.40
2	Cincinnati Bengals	10	4	.714	-	335	210	+125	9.14	+0.86
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	5	.643	1	267	287	-20	6.65	+2.35
4	Houston Oilers	5	9	.357	5	222	273	-51	7.17	-2.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	11	3	.786	-	417	246	+171	10.03	+0.97
2	New England Patriots Playoffs	11	3	.786	-	376	236	+140	7.49	+3.51
3	Miami Dolphins	6	8	.429	5	263	264	-1	8.22	-2.22
4	New York Jets	3	11	.214	8	169	383	-214	3.55	-0.55
5	Buffalo Bills	2	12	.143	9	245	363	-118	6.46	-4.46

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	13	1	.929	-	350	237	+113	9.55	+3.45
2	Denver Broncos	9	5	.643	4	315	206	+109	7.87	+1.13
3	San Diego Chargers	6	8	.429	7	248	285	-37	5.62	+0.38
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	.357	8	290	376	-86	4.52	+0.48
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	14	.000	13	125	412	-287	2.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	2	1	.821	-	305	176	+129	10.64	+0.86
2	Chicago Bears	7	7	0	.500	4.5	253	216	+37	5.91	+1.09
3	Detroit Lions	6	8	0	.429	5.5	262	220	+42	7.64	-1.64
4	Green Bay Packers	5	9	0	.357	6.5	218	299	-81	5.81	-0.81

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	3	.786	-	296	194	+102	11.02	-0.02
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	4	.714	1	291	217	+74	7.84	+2.16
3	St. Louis Cardinals	10	4	.714	1	309	267	+42	8.43	+1.57
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	10	.286	7	165	286	-121	5.43	-1.43
5	New York Giants	3	11	.214	8	170	250	-80	3.83	-0.83

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	3	1	.750	-	351	190	+161	9.75	+0.75
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	6	0	.571	2.5	270	190	+80	7.75	+0.25
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	10	0	.286	6.5	172	312	-140	5.52	-1.52
4	New Orleans Saints	4	10	0	.286	6.5	253	346	-93	4.16	-0.16
5	Seattle Seahawks	2	12	0	.143	8.5	229	429	-200	3.14	-1.14

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 24

New England Patriots 21

Dec 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 40

Baltimore Colts 14

Dec 19

Conference Championship

Oakland Raiders 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 7

Dec 26

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 35

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 18

Los Angeles Rams 14

Dallas Cowboys 12

Dec 19

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 24

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 26

Super Bowl

Oakland Raiders 32

Minnesota Vikings 14

Jan 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1789	10	10.40	-0.40	51.59%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1739	11.5	10.64	+0.86	70.42%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1733	13	9.55	+3.45	99.69%	2	7	8	10	11	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1692	10.5	9.75	+0.75	67.74%	2	7	9	10	11	12	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1689	11	10.03	+0.97	82.70%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1670	10	9.14	+0.86	80.06%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1664	11	11.02	-0.02	61.30%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1654	11	7.49	+3.51	99.51%	1	5	6	7	9	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1633	10	7.84	+2.16	94.66%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1619	10	8.43	+1.57	89.14%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1576	9	7.87	+1.13	83.43%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1529	6	8.22	-2.22	15.72%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1516	8	7.75	+0.25	67.28%	1	5	7	8	9	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1494	9	6.65	+2.35	95.67%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1481	6	7.64	-1.64	26.42%	1	5	6	8	9	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1480	7	5.91	+1.09	82.92%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1465	5	7.17	-2.17	16.13%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1439	6	5.62	+0.38	70.73%	0	3	4	6	7	8	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1428	5	4.52	+0.48	74.40%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1403	5	5.81	-0.81	43.97%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1390	3	3.83	-0.83	43.97%	0	1	3	4	5	6	12
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1365	4	5.43	-1.43	30.31%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1341	4	5.52	-1.52	28.37%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1333	4	4.16	-0.16	60.24%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1322	2	6.46	-4.46	0.62%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1274	3	3.55	-0.55	51.51%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1161	2	3.14	-1.14	35.78%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	AFC	AFC West	1118	0	2.45	-2.45	5.11%	0	0	2	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	-	-	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-1 (3.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Buccaneers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (0.3 exp.)	0-5 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-1-1 (3.1 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (2.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers	Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	2-0-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (0.7 exp.)	0-5 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.79%	2.81%	3.83%	1.02%	—	1.53%	10.97%
7–13	1.79%	3.06%	6.12%	4.08%	3.06%	0.51%	0.51%	19.13%
14–20	2.81%	6.12%	9.18%	4.59%	3.32%	1.79%	1.28%	29.08%
21–27	3.83%	4.08%	4.59%	3.06%	3.06%	1.02%	1.02%	20.66%
28–34	1.02%	3.06%	3.32%	3.06%	2.04%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	0.51%	1.79%	1.02%	—	—	—	3.32%
42+	1.53%	0.51%	1.28%	1.02%	—	—	—	4.34%
Total	10.97%	19.13%	29.08%	20.66%	12.50%	3.32%	4.34%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.15	19.15	+0.00
SD	11.09	11.09	17.19
CV	0.58	0.58	—
Max	59	59	+59
Min	0	0	-59

Games Played: 196

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.29	22.29	-10.00
SD	7.67	13.46	17.96
CV	0.62	0.60	—
Max	23	59	+10
Min	0	0	-59

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.79	17.57	+12.21
SD	11.67	7.31	13.38
CV	0.39	0.42	—
Max	58	30	+38
Min	14	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	—	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	25.93	-8.43
SD	11.09	13.23	15.69
CV	0.63	0.51	—
Max	50	58	+33
Min	3	9	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	50.00%	21.43%	—	21.43%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	15.43	+2.64
SD	9.34	8.69	12.53
CV	0.52	0.56	—
Max	34	31	+27
Min	0	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	—	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.93	15.00	+8.93
SD	11.51	11.28	15.37
CV	0.48	0.75	—
Max	45	35	+39
Min	3	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.07	20.50	-1.43
SD	7.55	13.87	17.39
CV	0.40	0.68	—
Max	38	45	+21
Min	6	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.14	13.86	+7.29
SD	7.12	7.81	9.96
CV	0.34	0.56	—
Max	31	27	+20
Min	9	3	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	14.71	+7.79
SD	15.49	9.94	20.61
CV	0.69	0.68	—
Max	48	38	+43
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.71	15.71	+3.00
SD	10.44	7.19	13.63
CV	0.56	0.46	—
Max	41	31	+27
Min	3	6	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	50.00%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.57	21.36	-5.79
SD	9.69	5.43	12.88
CV	0.62	0.25	—
Max	32	29	+15
Min	0	13	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.86	19.50	-3.64
SD	8.66	12.00	13.80
CV	0.55	0.62	—
Max	31	38	+20
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.71	26.86	-6.14
SD	9.60	10.60	17.18
CV	0.46	0.39	—
Max	39	50	+25
Min	0	14	-45

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	—	14.29%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.07	13.57	+11.50
SD	14.79	8.46	19.23
CV	0.59	0.62	—
Max	59	30	+59
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	18.86	-0.07
SD	10.91	10.04	13.04
CV	0.58	0.53	—
Max	45	31	+20
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	57.14%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	12.57	+9.21
SD	8.89	5.79	10.06
CV	0.41	0.46	—
Max	40	23	+31
Min	10	6	-4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.86	16.86	+10.00
SD	12.59	7.83	15.92
CV	0.47	0.46	—
Max	48	30	+34
Min	3	6	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	24.71	-6.64
SD	13.18	10.02	18.48
CV	0.73	0.41	—
Max	51	40	+30
Min	3	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	35.71%	35.71%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.14	17.86	-5.71
SD	8.49	6.71	10.96
CV	0.70	0.38	—
Max	28	27	+14
Min	0	9	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	14.29%	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.07	27.36	-15.29
SD	9.98	13.85	19.59
CV	0.83	0.51	—
Max	34	46	+34
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	16.93	+8.07
SD	9.11	11.90	14.61
CV	0.36	0.70	—
Max	49	48	+33
Min	14	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.79	20.43	-8.64
SD	6.96	9.73	14.19
CV	0.59	0.48	—
Max	27	33	+17
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	28.57%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	57.14%	—	28.57%	—	14.29%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.43	9.86	+14.57
SD	11.43	11.16	16.71
CV	0.47	1.13	—
Max	45	31	+45
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	57.14%	—	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.71	20.36	-2.64
SD	13.95	9.26	17.38
CV	0.79	0.45	—
Max	43	37	+23
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	21.43%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.29	13.57	+5.71
SD	9.30	8.83	13.56
CV	0.48	0.65	—
Max	37	24	+30
Min	3	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	—	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.36	30.64	-14.29
SD	7.67	10.99	14.16
CV	0.47	0.36	—
Max	30	51	+17
Min	6	10	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	64.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.07	19.07	+3.00
SD	7.52	9.37	11.66
CV	0.34	0.49	—
Max	33	43	+29
Min	10	0	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	—	28.57%	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	8.93	29.43	-20.50
SD	7.77	11.93	12.55
CV	0.87	0.41	—
Max	20	49	-3
Min	0	13	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.79	15.50	+5.29
SD	9.02	9.31	14.04
CV	0.43	0.60	—
Max	37	33	+24
Min	7	0	-26

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.74	+0.4
Allowed	0.62	-0.4
Differential	0.85	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	11	7.49	+3.51
2	Oakland Raiders	13	9.55	+3.45
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	6.65	+2.35
4	Washington Redskins	10	7.84	+2.16
5	St. Louis Cardinals	10	8.43	+1.57

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	2	6.46	-4.46
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	2.45	-2.45
3	Miami Dolphins	6	8.22	-2.22
4	Houston Oilers	5	7.17	-2.17
5	Detroit Lions	6	7.64	-1.64

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	10	Oct 10 – Dec 12	1 in 29
2	Atlanta Falcons	2	Nov 14 – Nov 21	1 in 28
3	Kansas City Chiefs	2	Oct 10 – Oct 17	1 in 25
4	Washington Redskins	4	Nov 21 – Dec 12	1 in 24
5	New England Patriots	6	Nov 7 – Dec 12	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Buffalo Bills	10	Oct 10 – Dec 12	1 in 424
2	Houston Oilers	6	Oct 17 – Nov 21	1 in 55
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Sep 26 – Oct 10	1 in 53
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	Oct 31 – Nov 21	1 in 32
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	Sep 12 – Dec 12	1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.70%	26.59%	7.02%	1.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	28.41%	45.18%	19.21%	7.21%
Houston Oilers	4.23%	16.78%	41.51%	37.48%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.66%	11.45%	32.26%	53.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	67.24%	22.24%	8.10%	2.28%	0.15%
Miami Dolphins	20.28%	38.71%	25.87%	13.39%	1.75%
New England Patriots	9.17%	25.37%	36.03%	25.42%	4.01%
Buffalo Bills	3.24%	13.05%	27.13%	46.48%	10.10%
New York Jets	0.07%	0.63%	2.87%	12.44%	83.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	71.15%	23.48%	4.61%	0.73%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	24.27%	51.93%	18.13%	5.27%	0.40%
San Diego Chargers	3.66%	17.50%	45.41%	26.65%	6.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.92%	6.85%	27.99%	48.15%	16.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	0.24%	3.86%	19.20%	76.70%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	85.27%	12.22%	2.11%	0.40%
Detroit Lions	10.75%	50.95%	25.59%	12.72%
Chicago Bears	2.35%	19.73%	37.13%	40.78%
Green Bay Packers	1.64%	17.10%	35.17%	46.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	77.18%	17.50%	4.69%	0.58%	0.05%
St. Louis Cardinals	14.38%	45.27%	29.38%	9.19%	1.78%
Washington Redskins	7.71%	30.34%	42.80%	15.67%	3.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.68%	5.85%	17.91%	50.04%	25.52%
New York Giants	0.06%	1.04%	5.22%	24.51%	69.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Rams	76.83%	19.57%	3.13%	0.43%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	19.76%	57.45%	16.97%	4.81%	1.01%
Atlanta Falcons	2.67%	15.58%	46.36%	25.14%	10.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.68%	5.97%	24.00%	40.03%	29.32%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%	1.43%	9.54%	29.60%	59.38%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.75%	21.71%	15.09%	11.59%	6.80%	4.18%	2.77%	1.55%	0.87%	0.43%	0.18%	0.05%	<0.01%	-
Baltimore Colts	24.04%	24.23%	17.40%	11.15%	8.80%	5.50%	3.62%	2.57%	1.35%	0.78%	0.40%	0.12%	0.04%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	16.76%	19.25%	20.61%	13.16%	9.81%	8.32%	4.86%	3.06%	2.13%	1.12%	0.60%	0.27%	0.05%	<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	12.69%	12.66%	13.62%	16.79%	13.22%	9.94%	7.76%	5.56%	3.57%	2.37%	1.33%	0.42%	0.06%	<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	4.60%	7.61%	9.62%	11.92%	14.85%	12.52%	10.57%	9.89%	7.04%	5.27%	3.74%	1.55%	0.71%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	2.90%	5.76%	9.22%	10.27%	12.52%	16.09%	11.70%	9.34%	8.66%	5.98%	3.82%	2.77%	0.78%	0.18%
New England Patriots	1.65%	3.61%	5.10%	7.92%	10.62%	11.09%	13.24%	13.69%	11.64%	9.32%	7.15%	3.18%	1.60%	0.19%
Houston Oilers	1.39%	2.25%	3.79%	6.79%	7.63%	10.15%	13.91%	13.93%	12.56%	11.61%	10.05%	4.62%	1.17%	0.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.70%	1.27%	2.21%	4.43%	5.74%	7.70%	11.23%	12.46%	13.53%	14.96%	14.44%	8.13%	2.74%	0.48%
Buffalo Bills	0.32%	1.03%	1.91%	3.52%	5.53%	7.11%	10.00%	12.38%	13.55%	15.63%	14.79%	8.18%	4.81%	1.25%
San Diego Chargers	0.19%	0.54%	1.19%	1.95%	3.37%	5.21%	6.75%	9.45%	13.88%	15.06%	15.28%	15.60%	7.48%	4.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.08%	0.22%	0.43%	0.88%	1.75%	2.72%	4.57%	8.07%	11.20%	16.09%	27.26%	16.11%	10.61%
New York Jets	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.22%	0.39%	0.78%	1.32%	2.45%	4.66%	8.41%	16.39%	43.08%	22.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.05%	0.09%	0.25%	0.69%	1.62%	3.71%	11.44%	21.35%	60.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	41.44%	26.96%	14.73%	8.24%	4.18%	2.34%	1.21%	0.50%	0.25%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	31.47%	29.58%	19.66%	8.62%	5.12%	2.83%	1.34%	0.78%	0.35%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	<0.01%	-
Los Angeles Rams	15.11%	21.35%	26.47%	14.53%	9.35%	6.32%	3.36%	1.72%	1.02%	0.42%	0.20%	0.10%	0.03%	<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.24%	7.46%	11.30%	18.81%	15.14%	12.64%	11.10%	7.21%	4.69%	3.06%	1.76%	0.95%	0.51%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers	1.97%	4.62%	9.17%	13.21%	16.03%	16.77%	12.80%	8.84%	6.97%	4.12%	2.57%	1.80%	0.79%	0.36%
Washington Redskins	2.31%	4.17%	7.08%	13.44%	13.62%	14.18%	14.71%	11.00%	7.83%	5.17%	3.29%	1.85%	1.09%	0.27%
Detroit Lions	1.92%	4.02%	7.05%	11.83%	16.14%	15.52%	12.11%	10.68%	7.82%	5.42%	3.98%	2.44%	0.88%	0.18%
Chicago Bears	0.22%	0.69%	1.46%	3.46%	6.13%	8.07%	10.59%	13.74%	13.25%	13.13%	13.08%	9.59%	4.88%	1.71%
Green Bay Packers	0.10%	0.43%	1.06%	2.93%	5.57%	7.19%	10.13%	13.27%	13.44%	14.04%	13.99%	10.54%	5.38%	1.92%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.36%	1.07%	2.16%	3.99%	6.15%	8.80%	12.40%	15.38%	13.67%	11.84%	11.03%	7.58%	5.50%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	0.28%	0.69%	1.97%	3.07%	4.72%	7.92%	9.61%	12.25%	15.95%	14.75%	11.96%	11.27%	5.44%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.49%	1.03%	1.97%	3.15%	5.47%	8.49%	10.52%	13.87%	18.62%	17.30%	18.86%
New York Giants	<0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.24%	0.44%	0.88%	1.92%	2.93%	4.76%	8.94%	11.94%	16.04%	29.80%	22.02%
Seattle Seahawks	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.20%	0.42%	0.86%	1.86%	3.51%	5.33%	8.63%	15.04%	20.49%	43.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	26.57%	18.53%	14.14%	10.85%	7.65%	6.03%	4.34%	3.44%	2.21%	1.91%	1.26%	1.01%	0.63%	0.53%	0.31%	0.20%	0.14%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Minnesota Vikings	19.59%	15.70%	14.59%	12.10%	9.41%	8.23%	4.83%	4.23%	2.77%	2.48%	1.62%	1.39%	0.81%	0.73%	0.46%	0.37%	0.23%	0.18%	0.11%	0.06%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	-	-	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.94%	16.09%	12.52%	11.07%	9.10%	7.41%	6.88%	4.95%	4.18%	2.71%	2.53%	1.72%	1.55%	0.92%	0.77%	0.53%	0.43%	0.23%	0.19%	0.11%	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Baltimore Colts	10.60%	12.32%	11.77%	12.05%	9.83%	8.72%	6.80%	5.67%	5.18%	3.67%	3.27%	2.30%	2.18%	1.35%	1.33%	0.91%	0.67%	0.43%	0.37%	0.24%	0.14%	0.10%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	-	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	8.09%	8.89%	10.72%	10.72%	11.13%	11.36%	7.13%	7.34%	4.91%	4.91%	3.34%	3.25%	1.96%	2.01%	1.14%	1.02%	0.62%	0.55%	0.30%	0.24%	0.13%	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	6.50%	8.81%	9.12%	10.46%	10.00%	10.43%	7.48%	7.06%	5.65%	4.90%	4.52%	3.57%	2.63%	2.17%	1.77%	1.33%	1.07%	0.75%	0.64%	0.41%	0.30%	0.18%	0.14%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	-
Cincinnati Bengals	4.63%	6.40%	6.96%	6.94%	7.99%	7.20%	9.26%	7.60%	7.69%	5.84%	5.86%	4.47%	4.41%	3.20%	2.98%	2.20%	1.84%	1.31%	1.10%	0.77%	0.60%	0.35%	0.21%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.39%	2.90%	4.03%	4.25%	5.81%	5.99%	7.80%	8.46%	7.10%	7.59%	6.17%	6.38%	5.27%	5.56%	3.85%	3.99%	2.73%	2.63%	1.86%	1.63%	1.10%	0.92%	0.64%	0.43%	0.30%	0.14%	0.07%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	1.56%	2.43%	3.59%	4.17%	5.24%	5.23%	6.68%	6.42%	7.99%	6.95%	6.98%	6.04%	5.91%	5.09%	5.29%	4.31%	3.71%	2.90%	2.72%	2.10%	1.68%	1.22%	0.71%	0.49%	0.34%	0.17%	0.06%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.78%	1.62%	2.38%	3.44%	4.18%	5.16%	5.59%	5.80%	6.68%	6.86%	7.78%	7.51%	6.08%	5.96%	5.25%	4.59%	4.40%	3.64%	3.16%	2.48%	2.08%	1.52%	1.39%	0.81%	0.46%	0.26%	0.12%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.71%	1.30%	2.05%	2.75%	3.89%	4.87%	5.52%	6.67%	6.37%	8.14%	6.63%	8.36%	5.94%	7.38%	4.74%	5.14%	3.88%	4.15%	2.62%	2.48%	1.79%	1.46%	1.12%	0.88%	0.52%	0.34%	0.20%	0.07%
Washington Redskins	0.90%	1.39%	2.04%	2.56%	3.55%	4.11%	5.41%	6.71%	6.05%	7.25%	6.45%	7.31%	6.31%	7.49%	5.37%	5.95%	4.20%	4.29%	3.11%	2.68%	1.97%	1.68%	1.24%	0.81%	0.64%	0.34%	0.17%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	0.76%	1.21%	1.92%	2.40%	3.21%	3.97%	4.95%	6.02%	6.56%	7.81%	6.66%	7.62%	5.95%	6.60%	5.33%	5.48%	4.56%	4.38%	3.34%	2.95%	2.46%	2.10%	1.50%	1.12%	0.63%	0.35%	0.13%	0.04%
New England Patriots	0.38%	0.87%	1.41%	2.14%	2.65%	3.09%	4.32%	4.43%	6.06%	5.34%	6.61%	6.04%	7.51%	6.23%	7.50%	6.29%	6.20%	4.75%	4.65%	3.76%	3.37%	2.30%	1.71%	1.01%	0.82%	0.37%	0.14%	0.04%
Houston Oilers	0.24%	0.66%	0.99%	1.41%	2.02%	2.29%	3.62%	3.54%	4.53%	4.44%	6.17%	5.71%	7.76%	6.28%	7.65%	6.44%	6.91%	5.40%	5.95%	4.56%	4.59%	3.44%	2.29%	1.66%	0.78%	0.51%	0.14%	0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.14%	0.33%	0.53%	0.78%	1.12%	1.43%	2.28%	2.48%	3.37%	3.35%	4.47%	4.65%	6.38%	5.40%	6.99%	6.46%	7.32%	6.55%	7.49%	6.18%	6.77%	5.20%	4.01%	2.94%	1.61%	1.17%	0.41%	0.20%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.16%	0.34%	0.60%	0.82%	1.20%	1.76%	2.18%	2.92%	3.18%	4.15%	4.22%	5.64%	5.30%	7.06%	6.47%	7.28%	6.88%	8.02%	6.73%	7.03%	5.44%	4.32%	3.13%	2.51%	1.45%	0.80%	0.35%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.12%	0.27%	0.34%	0.66%	0.77%	1.36%	1.67%	2.35%	2.93%	3.42%	3.78%	4.53%	5.34%	5.73%	6.56%	6.37%	7.39%	6.57%	7.40%	6.66%	7.42%	5.41%	5.32%	3.12%	2.60%	1.20%	0.65%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.07%	0.16%	0.24%	0.44%	0.63%	1.10%	1.47%	1.90%	2.77%	2.87%	3.58%	4.19%	5.22%	5.40%	6.61%	6.43%	7.47%	6.91%	7.75%	7.19%	7.65%	6.06%	5.67%	3.42%	2.73%	1.31%	0.71%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	0.08%	0.18%	0.29%	0.53%	0.65%	1.02%	1.11%	1.77%	1.86%	2.89%	2.71%	3.81%	3.63%	5.45%	5.07%	6.99%	6.67%	7.56%	7.17%	7.63%	7.23%	7.17%	6.56%	4.18%	3.77%	2.35%	1.64%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	0.05%	0.12%	0.22%	0.36%	0.59%	0.72%	1.15%	1.49%	2.03%	2.30%	3.05%	3.56%	4.59%	4.80%	6.03%	6.57%	7.76%	6.93%	7.97%	6.88%	7.01%	6.31%	5.85%	4.93%	3.79%	3.19%	1.71%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.05%	0.12%	0.17%	0.27%	0.38%	0.68%	0.97%	1.22%	1.65%	1.98%	2.49%	3.04%	4.04%	4.06%	5.20%	5.36%	6.79%	6.87%	8.54%	7.42%	8.50%	7.26%	6.69%	6.30%	4.95%	3.32%	1.65%
Kansas City Chiefs	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.12%	0.20%	0.24%	0.42%	0.49%	0.88%	0.97%	1.50%	1.56%	2.52%	2.65%	4.24%	4.26%	5.91%	6.07%	8.32%	8.24%	11.68%	11.27%	8.84%	8.23%	6.38%	4.88%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.15%	0.22%	0.32%	0.52%	0.57%	0.95%	1.09%	1.65%	1.78%	2.77%	3.14%	4.33%	4.59%	6.08%	6.25%	8.18%	8.59%	10.64%	9.57%	10.17%	10.34%	7.92%
New York Giants	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.10%	0.15%	0.22%	0.30%	0.45%	0.60%	0.92%	1.06%	1.54%	1.88%	2.64%	3.36%	4.88%	5.35%	7.35%	8.22%	9.97%	13.91%	14.92%	12.65%	9.41%
New York Jets	<0.01%	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.10%	0.12%	0.20%	0.25%	0.45%	0.43%	0.80%	0.82%	1.39%	1.50%	2.75%	2.82%	4.64%	5.16%	8.07%	9.58%	16.08%	18.89%	13.65%	12.19%
Seattle Seahawks	-	-	-	<0.01%	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.11%	0.18%	0.26%	0.38%	0.51%	0.91%	1.10%	1.71%	2.11%	2.97%	3.70%	5.01%	6.88%	8.90%	10.85%	12.82%	18.93%	22.50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.04%	0.09%	0.16%	0.34%	0.36%	0.75%	0.95%	1.81%	2.14%	4.91%	6.01%	10.08%	11.99%	24.44%	35.84%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.75%	19.74%	10.20%	17.32%	17.97%
Baltimore Colts	24.04%	26.23%	16.97%	9.04%	23.72%
Oakland Raiders	16.76%	21.11%	33.29%	4.64%	24.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	12.69%	9.76%	5.96%	24.99%	46.61%
Miami Dolphins	4.60%	8.20%	7.49%	11.88%	67.84%
Denver Broncos	2.90%	6.39%	14.97%	6.86%	68.87%
New England Patriots	1.65%	3.91%	3.61%	7.57%	83.26%
Houston Oilers	1.39%	1.61%	1.22%	8.19%	87.58%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.70%	1.03%	0.94%	4.99%	92.35%
Buffalo Bills	0.32%	1.24%	1.68%	3.06%	93.70%
San Diego Chargers	0.19%	0.66%	2.81%	1.17%	95.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.10%	0.80%	0.23%	98.86%
New York Jets	<0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	99.86%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	100.00%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	41.44%	25.88%	9.86%	13.24%	9.58%
Minnesota Vikings	31.47%	31.26%	22.53%	4.90%	9.83%
Los Angeles Rams	15.11%	22.68%	39.04%	5.25%	17.92%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.24%	5.90%	3.24%	26.27%	59.35%
Washington Redskins	2.31%	3.33%	2.06%	17.02%	75.28%
San Francisco 49ers	1.97%	4.92%	12.88%	10.79%	69.45%
Detroit Lions	1.92%	4.01%	4.81%	12.51%	76.74%
Chicago Bears	0.22%	0.75%	1.38%	3.14%	94.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	0.26%	0.30%	2.14%	97.19%
Green Bay Packers	0.10%	0.48%	1.05%	2.64%	95.72%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.42%	2.16%	1.54%	95.80%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.07%	0.60%	0.28%	99.04%
New York Giants	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.24%	99.70%
Seattle Seahawks	-	<0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	99.91%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+14.80%

Fortress

57.14%0.51%42.35%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 51.79 Elo pts.

20 Elo

0.050 points per Elo point

050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.48 points

Home-Tilted

-8+2.59+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 14th · Longshot: 15th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

13%

Oakland Raiders, 3rd of 28

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

16.3%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.31 · As Expected: 1.31 to 1.8 · Elevated: 1.8 to 2.45 · High Variance: 2.45 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.1 · Close: 3.1 to 4.2 · Off Target: 4.2 to 5.48 · Well Off Target: 5.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 28 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.4 · As Expected: 1.4 to 3.36 · Several Outliers: 3.36 to 6.16 · Many Outliers: 6.16 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.57 · As Expected: 1.57 to 2.61 · More Than Expected: 2.61 to 4.18 · Far More Than Expected: 4.18 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.78 wins

As Expected

01.634

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.75

Pinpoint

03.658

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.21%

99.69%

Oakland Raiders

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.79%

0.62%

Buffalo Bills

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 28

Several Outliers

02.814

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 8

As Expected

02.18

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.28

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.29

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

83%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

98%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Highly Predictable

00.191

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.21

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

0.65

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Chalk Held

0%29%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Favorites Held

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.22 · Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.14

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.13

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.040

Well Within Noise

00.1090.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.03%	57.50%	37.47%	23.19%
Minnesota Vikings	90.17%	60.03%	37.29%	18.91%
Oakland Raiders	75.79%	43.26%	22.94%	12.83%
Dallas Cowboys	90.42%	52.18%	25.42%	10.78%
Los Angeles Rams	82.08%	44.97%	22.97%	10.54%
Baltimore Colts	76.28%	39.98%	18.68%	9.45%
Cincinnati Bengals	53.39%	27.11%	11.31%	5.52%
St. Louis Cardinals	40.66%	15.83%	6.16%	2.39%
Washington Redskins	24.72%	9.70%	3.91%	1.62%
Denver Broncos	31.13%	10.31%	3.36%	1.30%
New England Patriots	16.74%	6.74%	2.73%	1.28%
Miami Dolphins	32.16%	8.66%	2.23%	0.70%
San Francisco 49ers	30.55%	8.41%	2.31%	0.65%
Detroit Lions	23.26%	5.90%	1.41%	0.35%
Houston Oilers	12.42%	2.89%	0.55%	0.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.65%	1.91%	0.45%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	5.49%	1.30%	0.31%	0.09%
San Diego Chargers	4.83%	0.88%	0.19%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	4.28%	0.69%	0.11%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	6.30%	0.58%	0.07%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.81%	0.34%	0.04%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.14%	0.19%	0.04%	<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	4.21%	0.48%	0.06%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.96%	0.11%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New York Giants	0.30%	0.04%	<0.01%	-
Seattle Seahawks	0.09%	<0.01%	-	-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	<0.01%	-	-	-
New York Jets	0.14%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore Colts			56.1%18.89%	79.8%3.15%	69.0%7.93%	81.8%4.89%	86.0%0.30%				46.3%15.87%	36.4%24.02%	84.4%1.21%
Buffalo Bills			12.2%1.19%	22.8%0.13%	17.4%0.46%	33.5%0.21%	45.5%0.01%				7.1%1.59%	4.5%2.66%	32.7%0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	43.9%18.89%	87.8%1.19%			64.5%5.81%		83.6%0.22%	70.5%6.51%	54.0%3.37%	100.0%0.02%	40.4%16.46%		82.6%0.92%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	20.2%3.15%	77.2%0.13%			37.6%0.61%		52.9%0.02%	43.2%0.70%	26.7%0.45%	100.0%<0.01%	17.8%2.49%		62.5%0.10%
Denver Broncos	31.0%7.93%	82.6%0.46%	35.5%5.81%	62.4%0.61%		67.9%1.13%		54.4%2.86%	38.6%1.28%	100.0%<0.01%		20.0%11.04%
Houston Oilers	18.2%4.89%	66.5%0.21%			32.1%1.13%		51.1%0.05%	37.6%1.47%	27.2%0.73%	80.0%<0.01%	16.8%3.78%		54.9%0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.0%0.30%	54.5%0.01%	16.4%0.22%	47.1%0.02%		48.9%0.05%		28.6%0.10%	18.9%0.04%			8.8%0.41%
Miami Dolphins			29.5%6.51%	56.8%0.70%	45.6%2.86%	62.4%1.47%	71.4%0.10%				22.2%8.18%	16.5%11.91%	60.9%0.44%	100.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots			46.0%3.37%	73.3%0.45%	61.4%1.28%	72.8%0.73%	81.1%0.04%				37.9%3.94%	27.6%6.71%	77.4%0.22%
New York Jets			0.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%					3.0%0.03%	7.7%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	53.7%15.87%	92.9%1.59%	59.6%16.46%	82.2%2.49%		83.2%3.78%		77.8%8.18%	62.1%3.94%	97.0%0.03%		40.2%23.46%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.6%24.02%	95.5%2.66%			80.0%11.04%		91.2%0.41%	83.5%11.91%	72.4%6.71%	92.3%0.07%	59.8%23.46%		90.2%1.75%	100.0%<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	15.6%1.21%	67.3%0.05%	17.4%0.92%	37.5%0.10%		45.1%0.14%		39.1%0.44%	22.6%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%		9.8%1.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		30.2%0.04%	10.2%1.98%	21.8%0.18%	47.1%0.02%		8.3%1.25%		75.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%			16.6%0.48%	10.8%0.24%
Chicago Bears	69.8%0.04%		21.0%2.89%			20.3%1.41%		75.0%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	53.6%0.03%	38.0%0.32%	100.0%<0.01%	30.9%0.53%	26.2%0.26%
Dallas Cowboys	89.8%1.98%	79.0%2.89%		78.6%11.68%	86.4%2.39%	49.8%30.86%	40.7%26.37%	88.2%0.46%			75.0%13.76%	97.5%0.04%
Detroit Lions	78.2%0.18%		21.4%11.68%			20.7%5.97%		68.2%0.04%	41.7%0.01%	71.0%0.14%	47.1%1.67%	100.0%<0.01%	32.0%2.33%	29.5%1.22%
Green Bay Packers	52.9%0.02%		13.6%2.39%			13.1%1.08%		83.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%	31.4%0.22%		23.5%0.33%	23.3%0.22%
Los Angeles Rams		79.7%1.41%	50.2%30.86%	79.3%5.97%	86.9%1.08%		41.1%19.11%		84.9%0.09%	88.9%1.05%			61.8%13.91%	60.7%8.59%
Minnesota Vikings	91.7%1.25%		59.3%26.37%			58.9%19.11%		95.7%0.28%	92.0%0.18%	92.2%1.38%	80.3%9.44%	100.0%0.04%	71.0%19.80%	70.1%12.33%
New Orleans Saints		25.0%0.01%	11.8%0.46%	31.8%0.04%	16.7%<0.01%		4.3%0.28%		0.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%			12.6%0.11%	20.8%0.05%
New York Giants	25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		58.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	15.1%0.09%	8.0%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	50.0%0.01%	46.4%0.03%		29.0%0.14%	33.3%0.02%	11.1%1.05%	7.8%1.38%	20.0%<0.01%			29.1%0.18%
San Francisco 49ers		62.0%0.32%	25.0%13.76%	52.9%1.67%	68.6%0.22%		19.7%9.44%		66.7%<0.01%	70.9%0.18%			34.6%3.15%	35.8%1.80%
Seattle Seahawks		0.0%<0.01%	2.5%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%0.04%						0.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	83.4%0.48%	69.1%0.53%		68.0%2.33%	76.5%0.33%	38.2%13.91%	29.0%19.80%	87.4%0.11%			65.4%3.15%	100.0%0.01%
Washington Redskins	89.2%0.24%	73.8%0.26%		70.5%1.22%	76.7%0.22%	39.3%8.59%	29.9%12.33%	79.2%0.05%			64.2%1.80%	100.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		86.4%0.12%	54.1%4.83%	74.3%0.33%	65.9%2.32%	79.4%0.43%	86.0%0.04%	72.6%1.86%	58.6%1.45%	100.0%<0.01%	45.5%11.99%	36.5%16.41%	79.9%0.19%
Buffalo Bills	13.6%0.12%		17.4%0.05%	33.3%<0.01%	19.4%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		6.8%0.15%	8.0%0.20%	100.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	45.9%4.83%	82.6%0.05%		68.2%0.20%	63.3%1.28%	76.3%0.30%	67.7%0.03%	69.1%0.96%	51.3%0.68%	0.0%<0.01%	39.7%6.28%	34.4%12.37%	71.8%0.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.7%0.33%	66.7%<0.01%	31.8%0.20%		36.0%0.09%	47.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	44.7%0.04%	31.9%0.05%		18.1%0.44%	18.1%0.72%	57.1%0.01%
Denver Broncos	34.1%2.32%	80.6%0.03%	36.7%1.28%	64.0%0.09%		72.2%0.13%	50.0%<0.01%	57.6%0.45%	42.1%0.37%		30.4%1.77%	24.7%3.85%	81.8%0.01%
Houston Oilers	20.6%0.43%	62.5%<0.01%	23.7%0.30%	52.4%0.02%	27.8%0.13%		25.0%<0.01%	47.1%0.07%	30.7%0.07%		16.1%0.67%	14.4%1.16%	42.1%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.0%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	32.3%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%		57.1%0.01%	12.5%<0.01%		10.0%0.02%	13.1%0.06%
Miami Dolphins	27.4%1.86%	82.4%0.02%	30.9%0.96%	55.3%0.04%	42.4%0.45%	52.9%0.07%	42.9%0.01%		34.1%0.22%		24.9%2.25%	18.0%2.74%	75.0%0.04%
New England Patriots	41.4%1.45%	100.0%<0.01%	48.7%0.68%	68.1%0.05%	57.9%0.37%	69.3%0.07%	87.5%<0.01%	65.9%0.22%			37.6%1.87%	31.3%1.98%	57.1%0.03%
New York Jets	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%								33.3%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	54.5%11.99%	93.2%0.15%	60.3%6.28%	81.9%0.44%	69.6%1.77%	83.9%0.67%	90.0%0.02%	75.1%2.25%	62.4%1.87%	66.7%<0.01%		41.5%17.68%	87.9%0.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.5%16.41%	92.0%0.20%	65.6%12.37%	81.9%0.72%	75.3%3.85%	85.6%1.16%	86.9%0.06%	82.0%2.74%	68.7%1.98%		58.5%17.68%		81.9%0.32%
San Diego Chargers	20.1%0.19%	0.0%<0.01%	28.2%0.12%	42.9%0.01%	18.2%0.01%	57.9%0.02%		25.0%0.04%	42.9%0.03%		12.1%0.14%	18.1%0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			14.9%0.10%	20.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	12.6%0.10%	9.4%0.20%			0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%		22.2%0.04%	26.3%0.02%
Chicago Bears			26.0%0.26%	56.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	18.3%0.34%	19.5%0.50%	100.0%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%	37.3%0.05%		41.2%0.07%	36.7%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	85.1%0.10%	74.0%0.26%		77.7%1.26%	83.2%0.14%	48.1%14.06%	41.1%24.25%	83.3%0.02%	85.7%0.01%	90.7%0.10%	70.3%2.06%		58.8%6.27%	56.8%3.64%
Detroit Lions	80.0%0.01%	44.0%0.03%	22.3%1.26%		55.6%<0.01%	23.5%1.48%	20.1%2.44%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	54.5%0.01%	45.8%0.22%		31.7%0.30%	39.9%0.14%
Green Bay Packers	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	16.8%0.14%	44.4%<0.01%		15.5%0.17%	11.8%0.27%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	18.9%0.04%		15.0%0.02%	22.9%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	87.4%0.10%	81.7%0.34%	51.9%14.06%	76.5%1.48%	84.5%0.17%		42.6%21.22%	94.1%0.02%	72.7%0.01%	94.7%0.09%	73.8%1.93%		62.8%3.40%	60.9%2.17%
Minnesota Vikings	90.6%0.20%	80.5%0.50%	58.9%24.25%	79.9%2.44%	88.2%0.27%	57.4%21.22%		96.7%0.06%	90.9%0.01%	88.4%0.10%	79.6%3.32%	100.0%<0.01%	68.8%4.77%	68.3%2.89%
New Orleans Saints		0.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	5.9%0.02%	3.3%0.06%				0.0%<0.01%		28.6%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants			14.3%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		27.3%0.01%	9.1%0.01%				0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	9.3%0.10%	45.5%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	5.3%0.09%	11.6%0.10%				20.0%0.01%		11.1%0.02%	16.7%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	87.5%<0.01%	62.7%0.05%	29.7%2.06%	54.2%0.22%	81.1%0.04%	26.2%1.93%	20.4%3.32%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%0.01%			41.8%0.49%	38.2%0.29%
St. Louis Cardinals	77.8%0.04%	58.8%0.07%	41.2%6.27%	68.3%0.30%	85.0%0.02%	37.2%3.40%	31.2%4.77%	71.4%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	88.9%0.02%	58.2%0.49%			51.0%0.46%
Washington Redskins	73.7%0.02%	63.3%0.05%	43.2%3.64%	60.1%0.14%	77.1%0.03%	39.1%2.17%	31.7%2.89%	100.0%<0.01%		83.3%0.01%	61.8%0.29%		49.0%0.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	84.6%0.01%	69.7%0.07%	53.2%4.75%	74.8%0.27%	76.5%0.02%	49.5%4.30%	45.2%6.99%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	67.9%0.39%	59.6%1.12%	56.9%0.75%
Buffalo Bills			10.5%0.02%			25.0%0.02%	26.3%0.02%				66.7%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	85.7%<0.01%	87.5%0.03%	52.0%2.84%	72.0%0.15%	100.0%0.01%	47.8%2.51%	42.9%4.33%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	68.5%0.29%	57.4%0.67%	52.5%0.45%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		100.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.12%	60.0%<0.01%		31.6%0.10%	22.6%0.18%				53.3%0.01%	22.7%0.02%	15.4%0.01%
Denver Broncos	100.0%<0.01%	60.0%0.01%	41.0%0.86%	63.3%0.05%	60.0%<0.01%	37.2%0.77%	33.9%1.23%			0.0%<0.01%	57.5%0.09%	46.5%0.23%	43.7%0.12%
Houston Oilers			27.5%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.13%	25.1%0.21%				50.0%0.01%	32.1%0.03%	41.2%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		8.3%0.01%	13.3%0.01%					0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	33.4%0.62%	50.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	29.7%0.50%	27.6%0.81%			0.0%<0.01%	38.0%0.05%	44.1%0.14%	35.1%0.08%
New England Patriots	100.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	50.0%0.66%	60.9%0.05%	87.5%<0.01%	45.5%0.67%	43.0%0.99%			0.0%<0.01%	70.5%0.06%	47.3%0.18%	51.8%0.11%
New York Jets						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	93.3%0.01%	74.2%0.07%	59.4%5.87%	75.6%0.31%	69.6%0.02%	55.8%5.12%	50.1%8.63%	50.0%<0.01%		92.3%0.01%	75.2%0.54%	62.7%1.45%	57.7%0.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	92.3%0.03%	74.8%0.11%	65.0%9.49%	80.2%0.54%	88.1%0.04%	61.7%8.80%	56.8%13.82%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	72.7%0.01%	76.8%0.85%	66.5%2.31%	65.8%1.46%
San Diego Chargers		0.0%<0.01%	23.9%0.05%	60.0%<0.01%		13.3%0.04%	24.6%0.07%				60.0%<0.01%	44.4%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons														15.4%0.01%		14.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		6.7%0.01%	7.7%0.03%
Chicago Bears														30.3%0.07%		12.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%	55.6%<0.01%		25.8%0.07%	25.2%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														46.8%4.75%	89.5%0.02%	48.0%2.84%	68.4%0.12%	59.0%0.86%	72.5%0.15%	50.0%<0.01%	66.6%0.62%	50.0%0.66%		40.6%5.87%	35.0%9.49%	76.1%0.05%
Detroit Lions														25.2%0.27%		28.0%0.15%	40.0%<0.01%	36.7%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.03%	39.1%0.05%		24.4%0.31%	19.8%0.54%	40.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers														23.5%0.02%		0.0%0.01%		40.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%		30.4%0.02%	11.9%0.04%
Los Angeles Rams														50.5%4.30%	75.0%0.02%	52.2%2.51%	68.4%0.10%	62.8%0.77%	76.0%0.13%	91.7%0.01%	70.3%0.50%	54.5%0.67%	100.0%<0.01%	44.2%5.12%	38.3%8.80%	86.7%0.04%
Minnesota Vikings														54.8%6.99%	73.7%0.02%	57.1%4.33%	77.4%0.18%	66.1%1.23%	74.9%0.21%	86.7%0.01%	72.4%0.81%	57.0%0.99%	100.0%<0.01%	49.9%8.63%	43.2%13.82%	75.4%0.07%
New Orleans Saints														0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%								50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants														0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%									0.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles														33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		7.7%0.01%	27.3%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers														32.1%0.39%	33.3%<0.01%	31.5%0.29%	46.7%0.01%	42.5%0.09%	50.0%0.01%		62.0%0.05%	29.5%0.06%		24.8%0.54%	23.2%0.85%	40.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals														40.4%1.12%	83.3%<0.01%	42.6%0.67%	77.3%0.02%	53.5%0.23%	67.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	55.9%0.14%	52.7%0.18%		37.3%1.45%	33.5%2.31%	55.6%<0.01%
Washington Redskins														43.1%0.75%	100.0%<0.01%	47.5%0.45%	84.6%0.01%	56.3%0.12%	58.8%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	64.9%0.08%	48.2%0.11%		42.3%0.91%	34.2%1.46%	75.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	71.12%	45.38%	21.91%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.08%	33.37%	20.53%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	67.94%	36.60%	19.58%	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	42.91%	19.72%	9.92%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	46.27%	21.17%	9.58%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	53.73%	22.26%	9.07%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	32.06%	10.31%	4.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	28.88%	11.18%	4.49%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts				42.9%100.00%
New England Patriots			32.1%100.00%
Oakland Raiders		67.9%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		53.7%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams	46.3%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings				71.1%100.00%
Washington Redskins			28.9%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		61.4%13.78%	38.6%29.13%
New England Patriots	38.6%13.78%			27.3%18.27%
Oakland Raiders	61.4%29.13%			48.2%38.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers		72.7%18.27%	51.8%38.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			34.0%38.17%	59.6%15.56%
Los Angeles Rams			38.7%32.95%	63.3%13.33%
Minnesota Vikings	66.0%38.17%	61.3%32.95%
Washington Redskins	40.4%15.56%	36.7%13.33%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts	54.3%4.34%	48.9%4.25%	47.5%8.91%	56.6%2.21%
New England Patriots	51.9%2.36%	47.7%2.17%	44.4%4.59%	53.4%1.19%
Oakland Raiders	58.5%8.12%	53.7%7.76%	49.8%16.67%	58.4%4.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.3%7.45%	61.7%6.98%	58.6%15.22%	65.5%3.72%
Dallas Cowboys					45.7%4.34%	48.1%2.36%	41.5%8.12%	34.7%7.45%
Los Angeles Rams					51.1%4.25%	52.3%2.17%	46.3%7.76%	38.3%6.98%
Minnesota Vikings					52.5%8.91%	55.6%4.59%	50.2%16.67%	41.4%15.22%
Washington Redskins					43.4%2.21%	46.6%1.19%	41.6%4.06%	34.5%3.72%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 21.91% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

55.48%

Win Prob

65.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

38.22%

Win Prob

50.23%

Pittsburgh Steelers 20.53% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

60.20%

Win Prob

51.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.45%

Win Prob

58.59%

Oakland Raiders 19.58% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

51.14%

Win Prob

48.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

42.37%

Win Prob

49.77%

Baltimore Colts 9.92% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

57.05%

Win Prob

38.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

42.64%

Win Prob

47.47%

Los Angeles Rams 9.58% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.27%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

60.18%

Win Prob

38.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.53%

Win Prob

46.32%

Dallas Cowboys 9.07% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

58.36%

Win Prob

34.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.11%

Win Prob

41.46%

New England Patriots 4.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

51.55%

Win Prob

38.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

41.30%

Win Prob

44.42%

Washington Redskins 4.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

56.20%

Win Prob

40.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.63%

Win Prob

41.64%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1976-09-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-30	1468.76	1634.38	33.94%	65.52%	-25.06	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-24	1443.70	1475.05	37.99%	61.44%	-26.24	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1417.46	1467.80	35.46%	63.99%	+37.27	1-2
1976-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-14	1454.73	1477.05	53.93%	45.47%	-9.94	1-3
1976-10-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-30	1444.79	1342.93	56.86%	42.56%	-57.39	1-4
1976-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1387.40	1420.61	52.37%	47.03%	-16.72	1-5
1976-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-15	1370.68	1564.02	19.48%	80.12%	-13.92	1-6
1976-10-31	New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1356.76	1364.89	55.95%	43.46%	+13.89	2-6
1976-11-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1370.65	1203.53	65.71%	33.74%	-49.89	2-7
1976-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-16	1320.76	1544.34	26.92%	72.59%	+29.88	3-7
1976-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1350.64	1729.91	13.11%	86.59%	+42.10	4-7
1976-11-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1392.74	1479.78	30.80%	68.68%	-13.93	4-8
1976-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-59	1378.81	1664.11	12.50%	87.22%	-17.68	4-9
1976-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1361.13	1383.07	53.99%	45.42%	-19.90	4-10
1976-09-12	@ New England Patriots	W 27-13	1602.77	1435.71	65.71%	33.75%	+23.31	1-0
1976-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-27	1626.08	1593.95	61.55%	37.88%	+6.99	2-0
1976-09-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1633.07	1681.94	35.65%	63.79%	-11.40	2-1
1976-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-17	1621.67	1227.99	92.70%	7.12%	+6.55	3-1
1976-10-10	Miami Dolphins	W 28-14	1628.22	1589.56	62.43%	37.01%	+25.56	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1653.78	1515.03	61.96%	37.47%	+29.35	5-1
1976-10-24	@ New York Jets	W 20-0	1683.13	1305.19	86.50%	13.20%	+10.88	6-1
1976-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 38-14	1694.01	1570.88	72.95%	26.57%	+24.03	7-1
1976-11-07	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-21	1718.04	1448.55	77.50%	22.07%	+16.29	8-1
1976-11-14	New England Patriots	L 14-21	1734.33	1549.01	79.38%	20.21%	-38.63	8-2
1976-11-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-16	1695.70	1570.20	60.15%	39.27%	+7.25	9-2
1976-11-28	New York Jets	W 33-16	1702.95	1315.82	92.44%	7.38%	+5.59	10-2
1976-12-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1708.54	1580.67	60.48%	38.95%	-29.47	10-3
1976-12-12	Buffalo Bills	W 58-20	1679.07	1332.63	90.64%	9.14%	+10.36	11-3
1976-09-13	Miami Dolphins	L 21-30	1561.07	1622.51	48.31%	51.09%	-26.73	0-1
1976-09-19	Houston Oilers	L 3-13	1534.34	1587.36	49.52%	49.88%	-28.88	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1505.46	1237.14	77.39%	22.18%	+9.15	1-2
1976-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 50-17	1514.61	1354.27	76.94%	22.62%	+23.98	2-2
1976-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1538.59	1303.31	73.91%	25.62%	-23.56	2-3
1976-10-17	Baltimore Colts	L 13-31	1515.03	1653.78	37.47%	61.96%	-29.34	2-4
1976-10-24	New England Patriots	L 22-26	1485.69	1534.57	50.12%	49.28%	-18.49	2-5
1976-10-31	New York Jets	L 14-19	1467.20	1294.31	78.19%	21.39%	-32.16	2-6
1976-11-07	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1435.04	1531.71	29.63%	69.86%	-17.30	2-7
1976-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1417.74	1724.44	11.22%	88.52%	-5.47	2-8
1976-11-21	San Diego Chargers	L 13-34	1412.27	1399.77	58.85%	40.57%	-49.68	2-9
1976-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-27	1362.59	1523.15	22.60%	76.97%	-15.04	2-10
1976-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-45	1347.55	1545.57	19.06%	80.54%	-14.92	2-11
1976-12-12	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-58	1332.63	1679.07	9.14%	90.64%	-10.36	2-12
1976-09-12	Detroit Lions	W 10-3	1410.70	1502.05	44.04%	55.37%	+27.00	1-0
1976-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-12	1437.70	1471.47	37.66%	61.77%	+30.10	2-0
1976-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-10	1467.80	1417.46	63.99%	35.46%	-37.26	2-1
1976-10-03	Washington Redskins	W 33-7	1430.54	1552.40	39.77%	59.65%	+56.03	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-20	1486.57	1691.55	18.46%	81.16%	-3.40	3-2
1976-10-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-20	1483.17	1625.40	24.49%	75.05%	-12.79	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1470.38	1688.27	17.37%	82.27%	-10.13	3-4
1976-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-13	1460.25	1720.21	23.02%	76.54%	+14.08	4-4
1976-11-07	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1474.33	1657.91	31.67%	67.81%	-5.84	4-5
1976-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1468.49	1444.58	60.42%	39.00%	+23.88	5-5
1976-11-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1492.37	1508.36	40.09%	59.33%	-14.80	5-6
1976-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1477.57	1411.27	51.79%	47.62%	+21.51	6-6
1976-12-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1499.08	1195.36	80.73%	18.88%	+18.09	7-6
1976-12-12	Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1517.17	1538.77	54.03%	45.37%	-37.26	7-7
1976-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 17-7	1577.19	1472.61	70.80%	28.70%	+16.76	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 27-28	1593.95	1626.08	37.88%	61.55%	-7.00	1-1
1976-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1586.95	1415.19	78.08%	21.49%	+18.18	2-1
1976-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 45-24	1605.13	1428.22	66.97%	32.50%	+27.50	3-1
1976-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-0	1632.63	1221.44	93.35%	6.49%	+5.46	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-23	1638.09	1639.45	42.12%	57.29%	-32.05	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1606.04	1619.47	40.44%	58.98%	+48.59	5-2
1976-10-31	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-6	1654.63	1455.24	80.67%	18.94%	+13.53	6-2
1976-11-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-12	1668.16	1654.87	58.96%	40.46%	+21.13	7-2
1976-11-14	Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1689.29	1498.04	79.93%	19.67%	+7.25	8-2
1976-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1696.54	1351.04	84.18%	15.48%	+4.95	9-2
1976-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-7	1701.49	1751.29	49.99%	49.41%	-18.44	9-3
1976-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-35	1683.05	1691.31	41.16%	58.26%	-29.42	9-4
1976-12-12	@ New York Jets	W 42-3	1653.63	1290.28	85.50%	14.19%	+16.33	10-4
1976-09-12	New York Jets	W 38-17	1452.22	1393.97	65.03%	34.43%	+29.12	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-31	1481.34	1701.11	17.21%	82.42%	-13.09	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-44	1468.25	1492.56	38.95%	60.48%	-40.03	1-2
1976-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-45	1428.22	1605.13	32.50%	66.97%	-27.49	1-3
1976-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 18-16	1400.73	1659.32	23.16%	76.40%	+19.88	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1420.61	1387.40	47.03%	52.37%	+16.72	3-3
1976-10-24	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1437.33	1481.25	50.83%	48.57%	+17.91	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-21	1455.24	1654.63	18.94%	80.67%	-13.53	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-7	1441.71	1546.85	28.63%	70.87%	+48.81	5-4
1976-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-3	1490.52	1428.70	65.49%	33.96%	+28.73	6-4
1976-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1519.25	1137.75	86.74%	12.97%	+9.85	7-4
1976-11-28	Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1529.10	1562.95	52.28%	47.12%	+17.39	8-4
1976-12-05	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1546.49	1493.71	64.31%	35.14%	+11.23	9-4
1976-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-39	1557.72	1364.56	68.99%	30.49%	-63.50	9-5
1976-09-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-7	1651.38	1487.58	77.29%	22.27%	+18.39	1-0
1976-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-6	1669.77	1325.35	84.10%	15.56%	+12.17	2-0
1976-09-26	Baltimore Colts	W 30-27	1681.94	1633.07	63.79%	35.65%	+11.40	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 28-13	1693.34	1230.57	91.24%	8.55%	+6.09	4-0
1976-10-10	@ New York Giants	W 24-14	1699.43	1381.34	81.98%	17.65%	+10.29	5-0
1976-10-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1709.72	1598.15	58.22%	41.20%	-21.45	5-1
1976-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 31-21	1688.27	1470.38	82.27%	17.37%	+10.13	6-1
1976-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-7	1698.40	1537.58	64.90%	34.56%	+23.00	7-1
1976-11-07	New York Giants	W 9-3	1721.40	1317.78	93.07%	6.75%	+3.04	8-1
1976-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1724.44	1417.74	88.52%	11.22%	+5.47	9-1
1976-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-17	1729.91	1350.64	86.59%	13.11%	-42.11	9-2
1976-11-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 19-14	1687.80	1592.99	69.63%	29.86%	+12.33	10-2
1976-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1700.13	1362.01	83.61%	16.04%	+12.89	11-2
1976-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1713.02	1584.59	73.54%	25.98%	-48.80	11-3
1976-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1472.61	1577.19	28.70%	70.80%	-16.75	0-1
1976-09-19	New York Jets	W 46-3	1455.86	1364.85	69.17%	30.31%	+36.70	1-1
1976-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-13	1492.56	1468.25	60.48%	38.95%	+40.02	2-1
1976-10-03	San Diego Chargers	W 26-0	1532.58	1523.74	58.34%	41.08%	+38.66	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-17	1571.24	1616.00	36.19%	63.25%	-25.00	3-2
1976-10-17	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1546.24	1605.92	48.57%	50.84%	-23.70	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-26	1522.54	1380.96	62.34%	37.09%	+20.55	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-19	1543.09	1638.05	29.84%	69.65%	-19.86	4-4
1976-11-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-13	1523.23	1174.01	90.77%	9.01%	+9.80	5-4
1976-11-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-0	1533.03	1432.26	56.70%	42.71%	+32.50	6-4
1976-11-21	New York Giants	W 14-13	1565.53	1337.76	83.08%	16.57%	+3.05	7-4
1976-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 14-38	1568.58	1603.85	37.46%	61.97%	-33.88	7-5
1976-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1534.70	1368.63	77.52%	22.05%	+4.07	8-5
1976-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-14	1538.77	1517.17	45.37%	54.03%	+37.27	9-5
1976-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1502.05	1410.70	55.37%	44.04%	-27.00	0-1
1976-09-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1475.05	1443.70	61.44%	37.99%	+26.24	1-1
1976-09-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-10	1501.29	1657.11	35.21%	64.24%	-6.50	1-2
1976-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1494.79	1397.02	56.28%	43.13%	-32.80	1-3
1976-10-10	New England Patriots	W 30-10	1461.99	1559.22	43.21%	56.20%	+46.32	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-20	1508.31	1471.67	47.52%	51.88%	-31.60	2-4
1976-10-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 41-14	1476.71	1233.73	74.75%	24.79%	+23.77	3-4
1976-10-31	Green Bay Packers	W 27-6	1500.48	1462.97	62.28%	37.16%	+31.44	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-31	1531.92	1706.13	21.26%	78.32%	-11.10	4-5
1976-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-17	1520.82	1337.96	67.72%	31.75%	-12.46	4-6
1976-11-21	Chicago Bears	W 14-10	1508.36	1492.37	59.33%	40.09%	+14.79	5-6
1976-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1523.15	1362.59	76.97%	22.60%	+15.04	6-6
1976-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 10-24	1538.19	1351.75	68.16%	31.31%	-46.95	6-7
1976-12-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1491.24	1681.79	30.81%	68.67%	-9.85	6-8
1976-09-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-26	1479.23	1430.81	63.73%	35.71%	-40.66	0-1
1976-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-29	1438.57	1590.06	23.52%	76.03%	-23.38	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-28	1415.19	1586.95	21.49%	78.08%	-18.17	0-3
1976-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1397.02	1494.79	43.13%	56.28%	+32.79	1-3
1976-10-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1429.81	1224.48	81.19%	18.43%	+8.99	2-3
1976-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-13	1438.80	1462.13	53.79%	45.62%	+32.60	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-18	1471.40	1629.62	22.83%	76.73%	-8.43	3-4
1976-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-27	1462.97	1500.48	37.16%	62.28%	-31.43	3-5
1976-11-07	New Orleans Saints	W 32-27	1431.54	1351.00	67.87%	31.60%	+13.04	4-5
1976-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-24	1444.58	1468.49	39.00%	60.42%	-23.88	4-6
1976-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1420.70	1719.42	19.32%	80.29%	-9.43	4-7
1976-11-28	Chicago Bears	L 10-16	1411.27	1477.57	47.62%	51.79%	-21.51	4-8
1976-12-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-20	1389.76	1701.09	10.95%	88.79%	-6.69	4-9
1976-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1383.07	1361.13	45.42%	53.99%	+19.90	5-9
1976-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-0	1577.94	1275.00	88.30%	11.43%	+9.42	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-3	1587.36	1534.34	49.88%	49.52%	+28.88	2-0
1976-09-26	Oakland Raiders	L 13-14	1616.24	1635.92	54.31%	45.10%	-10.01	2-1
1976-10-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-26	1606.23	1352.70	75.87%	23.68%	+9.77	3-1
1976-10-10	Denver Broncos	W 17-3	1616.00	1571.24	63.25%	36.19%	+25.00	4-1
1976-10-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-30	1641.00	1459.72	67.52%	31.95%	-21.53	4-2
1976-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1619.47	1606.04	58.98%	40.44%	-48.59	4-3
1976-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-38	1570.88	1694.01	26.57%	72.95%	-24.03	4-4
1976-11-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1546.85	1441.71	70.87%	28.63%	-48.81	4-5
1976-11-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-31	1498.04	1689.29	19.67%	79.93%	-7.26	4-6
1976-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-32	1490.78	1740.29	14.92%	84.75%	-11.00	4-7
1976-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-14	1479.78	1392.74	68.68%	30.80%	+13.93	5-7
1976-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1493.71	1546.49	35.14%	64.31%	-11.23	5-8
1976-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-21	1482.48	1771.84	20.17%	79.42%	-17.06	5-9
1976-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 16-30	1445.86	1401.96	63.13%	36.31%	-43.51	0-1
1976-09-20	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1402.35	1627.36	26.76%	72.76%	-8.55	0-2
1976-09-26	New Orleans Saints	L 17-27	1393.80	1313.18	67.88%	31.59%	-39.53	0-3
1976-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-50	1354.27	1514.61	22.62%	76.94%	-23.98	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1330.29	1496.37	22.05%	77.52%	+24.70	1-4
1976-10-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1354.99	1564.00	18.11%	81.51%	+25.97	2-4
1976-10-24	Denver Broncos	L 26-35	1380.96	1522.54	37.09%	62.34%	-20.55	2-5
1976-10-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-19	1360.41	1192.66	65.80%	33.66%	+18.65	3-5
1976-11-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-45	1379.06	1704.00	17.08%	82.55%	-21.14	3-6
1976-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-21	1357.92	1663.76	11.27%	88.47%	-6.88	3-7
1976-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1351.04	1696.54	15.48%	84.18%	-4.94	3-8
1976-11-28	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1346.10	1449.45	28.84%	70.66%	+22.53	4-8
1976-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-17	1368.63	1534.70	22.05%	77.52%	-4.07	4-9
1976-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 39-14	1364.56	1557.72	30.49%	68.99%	+63.50	5-9
1976-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-14	1634.38	1468.76	65.52%	33.94%	+25.06	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	T 10-10	1659.44	1657.77	42.55%	56.86%	+0.66	1-0
1976-09-26	New York Giants	W 24-10	1660.10	1400.82	85.46%	14.22%	+9.80	2-0
1976-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1669.90	1604.82	51.61%	47.79%	+15.27	3-0
1976-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-16	1685.17	1479.09	81.26%	18.36%	-59.77	3-1
1976-10-17	Chicago Bears	W 20-12	1625.40	1483.17	75.05%	24.49%	+12.78	4-1
1976-10-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1638.18	1375.16	76.85%	22.71%	+10.27	5-1
1976-10-31	Seattle Seahawks	W 45-6	1648.45	1209.95	94.26%	5.60%	+6.42	6-1
1976-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-20	1654.87	1668.16	40.46%	58.96%	-21.12	6-2
1976-11-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-30	1633.75	1609.63	60.45%	38.97%	-15.75	6-3
1976-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-3	1618.00	1514.46	57.09%	42.32%	+34.93	7-3
1976-11-28	New Orleans Saints	W 33-14	1652.93	1389.23	85.77%	13.92%	+11.18	8-3
1976-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 59-0	1664.11	1378.81	87.22%	12.50%	+17.68	9-3
1976-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1681.79	1491.24	68.67%	30.81%	+9.85	10-3
1976-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-21	1622.51	1561.07	51.09%	48.31%	+26.73	1-0
1976-09-19	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1649.24	1412.39	74.08%	25.45%	-54.53	1-1
1976-09-26	New York Jets	W 16-0	1594.71	1328.15	85.97%	13.72%	+10.11	2-1
1976-10-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-31	1604.82	1669.90	47.79%	51.61%	-15.26	2-2
1976-10-10	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-28	1589.56	1628.22	37.01%	62.43%	-25.56	2-3
1976-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1564.00	1354.99	81.51%	18.11%	-25.97	2-4
1976-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1538.03	1197.73	83.78%	15.87%	+5.07	3-4
1976-10-31	New England Patriots	W 10-3	1543.10	1553.06	55.69%	43.72%	+21.34	4-4
1976-11-07	@ New York Jets	W 27-7	1564.44	1326.48	74.20%	25.33%	+20.91	5-4
1976-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1585.35	1725.13	24.75%	74.79%	-15.15	5-5
1976-11-22	Baltimore Colts	L 16-17	1570.20	1695.70	39.27%	60.15%	-7.25	5-6
1976-11-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-17	1562.95	1529.10	47.12%	52.28%	-17.38	5-7
1976-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 45-27	1545.57	1347.55	80.54%	19.06%	+14.92	6-7
1976-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-29	1560.49	1707.78	36.33%	63.11%	-31.46	6-8
1976-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-9	1637.24	1345.88	79.61%	19.99%	+20.53	1-0
1976-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	T 10-10	1657.77	1659.44	56.86%	42.55%	-0.66	1-0
1976-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1657.11	1501.29	64.24%	35.21%	+6.50	2-0
1976-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-6	1663.61	1687.26	53.74%	45.66%	+27.94	3-0
1976-10-10	Chicago Bears	W 20-19	1691.55	1486.57	81.16%	18.46%	+3.41	4-0
1976-10-17	New York Giants	W 24-7	1694.96	1371.04	89.49%	10.27%	+7.79	5-0
1976-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-12	1702.75	1429.54	77.87%	21.70%	+17.46	6-0
1976-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1720.21	1460.25	76.54%	23.02%	-14.08	6-1
1976-11-07	Detroit Lions	W 31-23	1706.13	1531.92	78.32%	21.26%	+11.09	7-1
1976-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1717.22	1253.42	94.99%	4.88%	+2.20	8-1
1976-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-10	1719.42	1420.70	80.29%	19.32%	+9.43	9-1
1976-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1728.85	1479.54	75.43%	24.12%	-27.76	9-2
1976-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 20-9	1701.09	1389.76	88.79%	10.95%	+6.69	10-2
1976-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 29-7	1707.78	1560.49	63.11%	36.33%	+31.46	11-2
1976-09-12	Baltimore Colts	L 13-27	1435.71	1602.77	33.75%	65.71%	-23.32	0-1
1976-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 30-14	1412.39	1649.24	25.45%	74.08%	+54.53	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-27	1466.92	1714.20	15.08%	84.59%	+26.93	2-1
1976-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 48-17	1493.85	1645.93	35.70%	63.74%	+65.37	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1559.22	1461.99	56.20%	43.21%	-46.32	3-2
1976-10-18	New York Jets	W 41-7	1512.90	1326.86	79.45%	20.15%	+21.67	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-22	1534.57	1485.69	49.28%	50.12%	+18.49	5-2
1976-10-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-10	1553.06	1543.10	43.72%	55.69%	-21.35	5-3
1976-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1531.71	1435.04	69.86%	29.63%	+17.30	6-3
1976-11-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-14	1549.01	1734.33	20.21%	79.38%	+38.63	7-3
1976-11-21	@ New York Jets	W 38-24	1587.64	1332.02	76.09%	23.46%	+16.21	8-3
1976-11-28	Denver Broncos	W 38-14	1603.85	1568.58	61.97%	37.46%	+33.88	9-3
1976-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 27-6	1637.73	1378.06	85.49%	14.19%	+11.98	10-3
1976-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1649.71	1122.77	93.77%	6.07%	+4.61	11-3
1976-09-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-40	1345.88	1637.24	19.99%	79.61%	-20.53	0-1
1976-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-24	1325.35	1669.77	15.56%	84.10%	-12.17	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1313.18	1393.80	31.59%	67.88%	+39.52	1-2
1976-10-03	Houston Oilers	L 26-31	1352.70	1606.23	23.68%	75.87%	-9.77	1-3
1976-10-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-0	1342.93	1444.79	42.56%	56.86%	+57.38	2-3
1976-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-33	1400.31	1538.87	24.88%	74.66%	-25.15	2-4
1976-10-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-16	1375.16	1638.18	22.71%	76.85%	-10.27	2-5
1976-10-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1364.89	1356.76	43.46%	55.95%	-13.89	2-6
1976-11-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-32	1351.00	1431.54	31.60%	67.87%	-13.04	2-7
1976-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 17-16	1337.96	1520.82	31.75%	67.72%	+12.46	3-7
1976-11-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 51-27	1350.42	1251.22	56.48%	42.93%	+38.81	4-7
1976-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-33	1389.23	1652.93	13.92%	85.77%	-11.17	4-8
1976-12-05	@ New England Patriots	L 6-27	1378.06	1637.73	14.19%	85.49%	-11.99	4-9
1976-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-27	1366.07	1483.00	40.45%	58.97%	-33.39	4-10
1976-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-19	1433.17	1514.89	31.45%	68.02%	-8.21	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1424.96	1469.20	36.26%	63.18%	-24.14	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1400.82	1660.10	14.22%	85.46%	-9.80	0-3
1976-10-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-27	1391.02	1563.61	21.41%	78.16%	-9.68	0-4
1976-10-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1381.34	1699.43	17.65%	81.98%	-10.30	0-5
1976-10-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1371.04	1694.96	10.27%	89.49%	-7.79	0-6
1976-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1363.25	1671.50	18.48%	81.13%	-17.72	0-7
1976-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-10	1345.53	1412.08	47.58%	51.82%	-27.75	0-8
1976-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-9	1317.78	1721.40	6.75%	93.07%	-3.04	0-9
1976-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 12-9	1314.74	1534.98	27.30%	72.21%	+23.02	1-9
1976-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-14	1337.76	1565.53	16.57%	83.08%	-3.06	1-10
1976-11-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-16	1334.70	1212.41	72.85%	26.66%	+17.05	2-10
1976-12-05	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1351.75	1538.19	31.31%	68.16%	+46.96	3-10
1976-12-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-17	1398.71	1610.14	28.31%	71.19%	-9.05	3-11
1976-09-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-38	1393.97	1452.22	34.43%	65.03%	-29.12	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-46	1364.85	1455.86	30.31%	69.17%	-36.70	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-16	1328.15	1594.71	13.72%	85.97%	-10.12	0-3
1976-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-17	1318.03	1464.37	24.06%	75.49%	-14.72	0-4
1976-10-10	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1303.31	1538.59	25.62%	73.91%	+23.55	1-4
1976-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 7-41	1326.86	1512.90	20.15%	79.45%	-21.67	1-5
1976-10-24	Baltimore Colts	L 0-20	1305.19	1683.13	13.20%	86.50%	-10.88	1-6
1976-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-14	1294.31	1467.20	21.39%	78.19%	+32.17	2-6
1976-11-07	Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1326.48	1564.44	25.33%	74.20%	-20.91	2-7
1976-11-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-0	1305.57	1164.21	74.96%	24.58%	+26.45	3-7
1976-11-21	New England Patriots	L 24-38	1332.02	1587.64	23.46%	76.09%	-16.20	3-8
1976-11-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-33	1315.82	1702.95	7.38%	92.44%	-5.59	3-9
1976-12-05	Washington Redskins	L 16-37	1310.23	1564.64	23.59%	75.96%	-19.95	3-10
1976-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-42	1290.28	1653.63	14.19%	85.50%	-16.33	3-11
1976-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1608.82	1719.66	41.30%	58.12%	+18.54	1-0
1976-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1627.36	1402.35	72.76%	26.76%	+8.56	2-0
1976-09-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 14-13	1635.92	1616.24	45.10%	54.31%	+10.01	3-0
1976-10-03	@ New England Patriots	L 17-48	1645.93	1493.85	63.74%	35.70%	-65.36	3-1
1976-10-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1580.57	1485.08	55.96%	43.45%	+25.35	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1605.92	1546.24	50.84%	48.57%	+23.70	5-1
1976-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 18-14	1629.62	1471.40	76.73%	22.83%	+8.43	6-1
1976-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 19-6	1638.05	1543.09	69.65%	29.84%	+19.86	7-1
1976-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-27	1657.91	1474.33	67.81%	31.67%	+5.85	8-1
1976-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-10	1663.76	1357.92	88.47%	11.27%	+6.88	9-1
1976-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1670.64	1399.96	77.62%	21.95%	+17.65	10-1
1976-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 49-16	1688.29	1127.90	97.06%	2.86%	+3.02	11-1
1976-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-20	1691.31	1683.05	58.26%	41.16%	+29.42	12-1
1976-12-12	San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1720.73	1451.22	86.17%	13.52%	+12.21	13-1
1976-09-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1487.58	1651.38	22.27%	77.29%	-18.38	0-1
1976-09-19	New York Giants	W 20-7	1469.20	1424.96	63.18%	36.26%	+24.14	1-1
1976-09-27	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1493.34	1536.12	51.00%	48.41%	-16.29	1-2
1976-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-13	1477.05	1454.73	45.47%	53.93%	+9.94	2-2
1976-10-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-33	1486.99	1573.29	30.89%	68.59%	-24.86	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-28	1462.13	1438.80	45.62%	53.79%	-32.59	2-4
1976-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 12-31	1429.54	1702.75	21.70%	77.87%	-17.46	2-5
1976-10-31	@ New York Giants	W 10-0	1412.08	1345.53	51.82%	47.58%	+27.76	3-5
1976-11-07	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-17	1439.84	1598.49	34.84%	64.61%	-11.14	3-6
1976-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-24	1428.70	1490.52	33.96%	65.49%	-28.74	3-7
1976-11-21	Oakland Raiders	L 7-26	1399.96	1670.64	21.95%	77.62%	-17.65	3-8
1976-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-24	1382.31	1544.35	22.45%	77.11%	-20.30	3-9
1976-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-26	1362.01	1700.13	16.04%	83.61%	-12.89	3-10
1976-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-10	1349.12	1177.27	78.09%	21.49%	+16.34	4-10
1976-09-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 28-31	1719.66	1608.82	58.12%	41.30%	-18.55	0-1
1976-09-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1701.11	1481.34	82.42%	17.21%	+13.09	1-1
1976-09-26	New England Patriots	L 27-30	1714.20	1466.92	84.59%	15.08%	-26.94	1-2
1976-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 6-17	1687.26	1663.61	45.66%	53.74%	-27.94	1-3
1976-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-18	1659.32	1400.73	76.40%	23.16%	-19.87	1-4
1976-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-6	1639.45	1638.09	57.29%	42.12%	+32.05	2-4
1976-10-24	@ New York Giants	W 27-0	1671.50	1363.25	81.13%	18.48%	+17.71	3-4
1976-10-31	San Diego Chargers	W 23-0	1689.21	1463.34	82.92%	16.72%	+14.79	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-0	1704.00	1379.06	82.55%	17.08%	+21.13	5-4
1976-11-14	Miami Dolphins	W 14-3	1725.13	1585.35	74.79%	24.75%	+15.16	6-4
1976-11-21	Houston Oilers	W 32-16	1740.29	1490.78	84.75%	14.92%	+11.00	7-4
1976-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 7-3	1751.29	1701.49	49.41%	49.99%	+18.43	8-4
1976-12-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-0	1769.72	1124.88	98.17%	1.78%	+2.12	9-4
1976-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-0	1771.84	1482.48	79.42%	20.17%	+17.05	10-4
1976-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-16	1401.96	1445.86	36.31%	63.13%	+43.50	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-0	1445.46	1265.58	67.34%	32.13%	+28.45	2-0
1976-09-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 43-24	1473.91	1613.44	37.37%	62.06%	+49.83	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-26	1523.74	1532.58	41.08%	58.34%	-38.66	3-1
1976-10-10	Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1485.08	1580.57	43.45%	55.96%	-25.36	3-2
1976-10-17	Houston Oilers	W 30-27	1459.72	1641.00	31.95%	67.52%	+21.53	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1481.25	1437.33	48.57%	50.83%	-17.91	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-23	1463.34	1689.21	16.72%	82.92%	-14.79	4-4
1976-11-07	Baltimore Colts	L 21-37	1448.55	1718.04	22.07%	77.50%	-16.29	4-5
1976-11-14	Denver Broncos	L 0-17	1432.26	1533.03	42.71%	56.70%	-32.49	4-6
1976-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-13	1399.77	1412.27	40.57%	58.85%	+49.68	5-6
1976-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1449.45	1346.10	70.66%	28.84%	-22.52	5-7
1976-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-7	1426.93	1507.29	45.60%	53.80%	+24.29	6-7
1976-12-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-24	1451.22	1720.73	13.52%	86.17%	-12.21	6-8
1976-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1430.81	1479.23	35.71%	63.73%	+40.66	1-0
1976-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 12-19	1471.47	1437.70	61.77%	37.66%	-30.10	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-21	1441.37	1253.57	68.33%	31.14%	+23.00	2-1
1976-10-03	New York Jets	W 17-6	1464.37	1318.03	75.49%	24.06%	+14.72	3-1
1976-10-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-0	1479.09	1685.17	18.36%	81.26%	+59.78	4-1
1976-10-17	New Orleans Saints	W 33-3	1538.87	1400.31	74.66%	24.88%	+25.15	5-1
1976-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 15-0	1564.02	1370.68	80.12%	19.48%	+13.92	6-1
1976-10-31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1577.94	1585.29	41.29%	58.13%	-13.20	6-2
1976-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1564.74	1514.58	63.97%	35.48%	-20.40	6-3
1976-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-21	1544.34	1320.76	72.59%	26.92%	-29.88	6-4
1976-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-23	1514.46	1618.00	42.32%	57.09%	-34.92	6-5
1976-11-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1479.54	1728.85	24.12%	75.43%	+27.75	7-5
1976-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-13	1507.29	1426.93	53.80%	45.60%	-24.29	7-6
1976-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1483.00	1366.07	58.97%	40.45%	+33.39	8-6
1976-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-30	1275.00	1581.65	18.62%	80.99%	-8.41	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1266.59	1523.10	14.42%	85.26%	-13.02	0-2
1976-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-37	1253.57	1441.37	31.14%	68.33%	-23.00	0-3
1976-10-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-28	1230.57	1693.34	8.55%	91.24%	-6.09	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1224.48	1429.81	18.43%	81.19%	-8.99	0-5
1976-10-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1215.49	1215.97	42.25%	57.17%	+18.24	1-5
1976-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 14-41	1233.73	1476.71	24.79%	74.75%	-23.78	1-6
1976-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-45	1209.95	1648.45	5.60%	94.26%	-6.42	1-7
1976-11-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-13	1203.53	1370.65	33.74%	65.71%	+49.89	2-7
1976-11-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-27	1253.42	1717.22	4.88%	94.99%	-2.20	2-8
1976-11-21	New Orleans Saints	L 27-51	1251.22	1350.42	42.93%	56.48%	-38.81	2-9
1976-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 16-28	1212.41	1334.70	26.66%	72.85%	-17.05	2-10
1976-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1195.36	1499.08	18.88%	80.73%	-18.09	2-11
1976-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-27	1177.27	1349.12	21.49%	78.09%	-16.35	2-12
1976-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-24	1581.65	1275.00	80.99%	18.62%	+8.41	1-0
1976-09-19	Green Bay Packers	W 29-0	1590.06	1438.57	76.03%	23.52%	+23.38	2-0
1976-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-43	1613.44	1473.91	62.06%	37.37%	-49.83	2-1
1976-10-03	New York Giants	W 27-21	1563.61	1391.02	78.16%	21.41%	+9.68	3-1
1976-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-14	1573.29	1486.99	68.59%	30.89%	+24.86	4-1
1976-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1598.15	1709.72	41.20%	58.22%	+21.45	5-1
1976-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-20	1619.60	1503.27	58.88%	40.54%	-34.31	5-2
1976-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1585.29	1577.94	58.13%	41.29%	+13.20	6-2
1976-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1598.49	1439.84	64.61%	34.84%	+11.14	7-2
1976-11-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1609.63	1633.75	38.97%	60.45%	+15.75	8-2
1976-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1625.38	1511.96	71.84%	27.67%	-32.39	8-3
1976-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-19	1592.99	1687.80	29.86%	69.63%	-12.32	8-4
1976-12-04	Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1580.67	1708.54	38.95%	60.48%	+29.47	9-4
1976-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 17-14	1610.14	1398.71	71.19%	28.31%	+9.06	10-4
1976-09-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-20	1275.00	1577.94	11.43%	88.30%	-9.42	0-1
1976-09-19	San Diego Chargers	L 0-23	1265.58	1445.46	32.13%	67.34%	-28.44	0-2
1976-09-26	Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1237.14	1505.46	22.18%	77.39%	-9.15	0-3
1976-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-42	1227.99	1621.67	7.12%	92.70%	-6.55	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1221.44	1632.63	6.49%	93.35%	-5.47	0-5
1976-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1215.97	1215.49	57.17%	42.25%	-18.24	0-6
1976-10-24	Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1197.73	1538.03	15.87%	83.78%	-5.07	0-7
1976-10-31	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-28	1192.66	1360.41	33.66%	65.80%	-18.65	0-8
1976-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-48	1174.01	1523.23	9.01%	90.77%	-9.80	0-9
1976-11-14	@ New York Jets	L 0-34	1164.21	1305.57	24.58%	74.96%	-26.46	0-10
1976-11-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1137.75	1519.25	12.97%	86.74%	-9.85	0-11
1976-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-49	1127.90	1688.29	2.86%	97.06%	-3.02	0-12
1976-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-42	1124.88	1769.72	1.78%	98.17%	-2.11	0-13
1976-12-12	New England Patriots	L 14-31	1122.77	1649.71	6.07%	93.77%	-4.61	0-14
1976-09-12	New York Giants	W 19-17	1514.89	1433.17	68.02%	31.45%	+8.21	1-0
1976-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-7	1523.10	1266.59	85.26%	14.42%	+13.02	2-0
1976-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1536.12	1493.34	48.41%	51.00%	+16.28	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-33	1552.40	1430.54	59.65%	39.77%	-56.03	3-1
1976-10-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-33	1496.37	1330.29	77.52%	22.05%	-24.70	3-2
1976-10-17	Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1471.67	1508.31	51.88%	47.52%	+31.60	4-2
1976-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1503.27	1619.60	40.54%	58.88%	+34.31	5-2
1976-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1537.58	1698.40	34.56%	64.90%	-23.00	5-3
1976-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1514.58	1564.74	35.48%	63.97%	+20.40	6-3
1976-11-14	@ New York Giants	L 9-12	1534.98	1314.74	72.21%	27.30%	-23.02	6-4
1976-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1511.96	1625.38	27.67%	71.84%	+32.39	7-4
1976-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1544.35	1382.31	77.11%	22.45%	+20.29	8-4
1976-12-05	@ New York Jets	W 37-16	1564.64	1310.23	75.96%	23.59%	+19.95	9-4
1976-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-14	1584.59	1713.02	25.98%	73.54%	+48.80	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1976-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-40	1689.43	1788.89	43.18%	56.82%	-40.36	0-1
1976-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 12-14	1664.22	1691.64	53.50%	46.50%	-13.87	0-1
1976-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-12	1691.64	1664.22	46.50%	53.50%	+13.87	1-0
1976-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1705.51	1759.65	35.21%	64.79%	-21.40	1-1
1976-12-18	Washington Redskins	W 35-20	1739.24	1633.39	71.25%	28.75%	+20.41	1-0
1976-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-13	1759.65	1705.51	64.79%	35.21%	+21.41	2-0
1977-01-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-32	1781.06	1784.63	49.49%	50.51%	-38.49	2-1
1976-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1654.32	1732.94	32.07%	67.93%	-10.18	0-1
1976-12-18	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1732.94	1654.32	67.93%	32.07%	+10.18	1-0
1976-12-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-7	1743.12	1829.25	45.07%	54.93%	+41.51	2-0
1977-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 32-14	1784.63	1781.06	50.51%	49.49%	+38.48	3-0
1976-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 40-14	1788.89	1689.43	56.82%	43.18%	+40.36	1-0
1976-12-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-24	1829.25	1743.12	54.93%	45.07%	-41.51	1-1
1976-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-35	1633.39	1739.24	28.75%	71.25%	-20.41	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1976-11-21	13.11%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1350.64	17	Dallas Cowboys	1729.91	10
2	1976-09-26	15.08%	New England Patriots	1466.92	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1714.20	27
3	1976-10-17	18.11%	Kansas City Chiefs	1354.99	20	@ Miami Dolphins	1564.00	17
4	1976-10-11	18.36%	San Francisco 49ers	1479.09	16	@ Los Angeles Rams	1685.17	0
5	1976-11-14	20.21%	New England Patriots	1549.01	21	@ Baltimore Colts	1734.33	14
6	1976-10-31	21.39%	New York Jets	1294.31	19	@ Buffalo Bills	1467.20	14
7	1976-10-10	22.05%	Kansas City Chiefs	1330.29	33	@ Washington Redskins	1496.37	30
8	1976-10-31	23.02%	@ Chicago Bears	1460.25	14	Minnesota Vikings	1720.21	13
9	1976-10-10	23.16%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1400.73	18	Pittsburgh Steelers	1659.32	16
10	1976-11-29	24.12%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1479.54	20	Minnesota Vikings	1728.85	16
11	1976-09-19	25.45%	@ New England Patriots	1412.39	30	Miami Dolphins	1649.24	14
12	1976-10-10	25.62%	@ New York Jets	1303.31	17	Buffalo Bills	1538.59	14
13	1976-12-12	25.98%	Washington Redskins	1584.59	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1713.02	14
14	1976-11-14	26.92%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1320.76	21	San Francisco 49ers	1544.34	16
15	1976-11-14	27.30%	@ New York Giants	1314.74	12	Washington Redskins	1534.98	9
16	1976-11-21	27.67%	Washington Redskins	1511.96	16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1625.38	10
17	1976-11-07	28.63%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1441.71	21	@ Houston Oilers	1546.85	7
18	1976-11-28	28.84%	Kansas City Chiefs	1346.10	23	@ San Diego Chargers	1449.45	20
19	1976-12-12	30.49%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1364.56	39	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1557.72	14
20	1976-12-05	31.31%	@ New York Giants	1351.75	24	Detroit Lions	1538.19	10
21	1976-09-26	31.59%	New Orleans Saints	1313.18	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1393.80	17
22	1976-11-14	31.75%	@ New Orleans Saints	1337.96	17	Detroit Lions	1520.82	16
23	1976-10-17	31.95%	@ San Diego Chargers	1459.72	30	Houston Oilers	1641.00	27
24	1976-11-07	33.74%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1203.53	30	Atlanta Falcons	1370.65	13
25	1976-09-26	35.46%	Atlanta Falcons	1417.46	10	@ Chicago Bears	1467.80	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1976-10-03	65.37	@ New England Patriots	48	1493.85	35.70%	Oakland Raiders	17	1645.93	63.74%
2	1976-12-12	63.50	@ Kansas City Chiefs	39	1364.56	30.49%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1557.72	68.99%
3	1976-10-11	59.78	San Francisco 49ers	16	1479.09	18.36%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1685.17	81.26%
4	1976-10-10	57.39	@ New Orleans Saints	30	1342.93	42.56%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1444.79	56.86%
5	1976-10-03	56.03	@ Chicago Bears	33	1430.54	39.77%	Washington Redskins	7	1552.40	59.65%
6	1976-09-19	54.53	@ New England Patriots	30	1412.39	25.45%	Miami Dolphins	14	1649.24	74.08%
7	1976-11-07	49.89	@ Seattle Seahawks	30	1203.53	33.74%	Atlanta Falcons	13	1370.65	65.71%
8	1976-09-26	49.83	@ San Diego Chargers	43	1473.91	37.37%	St. Louis Cardinals	24	1613.44	62.06%
9	1976-11-21	49.68	San Diego Chargers	34	1399.77	40.57%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1412.27	58.85%
10	1976-11-07	48.81	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1441.71	28.63%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1546.85	70.87%
11	1976-12-12	48.80	Washington Redskins	27	1584.59	25.98%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1713.02	73.54%
12	1976-10-24	48.59	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1606.04	40.44%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1619.47	58.98%
13	1976-12-05	46.96	@ New York Giants	24	1351.75	31.31%	Detroit Lions	10	1538.19	68.16%
14	1976-10-10	46.32	@ Detroit Lions	30	1461.99	43.21%	New England Patriots	10	1559.22	56.20%
15	1976-09-12	43.51	San Diego Chargers	30	1401.96	36.31%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	16	1445.86	63.13%
16	1976-11-21	42.11	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1350.64	13.11%	Dallas Cowboys	10	1729.91	86.59%
17	1976-12-26 *	41.51	@ Oakland Raiders	24	1743.12	45.07%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1829.25	54.93%
18	1976-09-12	40.66	San Francisco 49ers	26	1430.81	35.71%	@ Green Bay Packers	14	1479.23	63.73%
19	1976-12-19 *	40.36	Pittsburgh Steelers	40	1788.89	56.82%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1689.43	43.18%
20	1976-09-26	40.03	@ Denver Broncos	44	1492.56	60.48%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1468.25	38.95%
21	1976-09-26	39.53	New Orleans Saints	27	1313.18	31.59%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1393.80	67.88%
22	1976-11-21	38.81	New Orleans Saints	51	1350.42	56.48%	@ Seattle Seahawks	27	1251.22	42.93%
23	1976-10-03	38.66	@ Denver Broncos	26	1532.58	58.34%	San Diego Chargers	0	1523.74	41.08%
24	1976-11-14	38.63	New England Patriots	21	1549.01	20.21%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1734.33	79.38%
25	1977-01-09 *	38.49	@ Oakland Raiders	32	1784.63	50.51%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1781.06	49.49%