1975 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1974

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1971

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Oilers

3.12 wins above expected

10 wins · 6.88 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New Orleans Saints

2.54 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.54 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	2	.857	-	373	162	+211	10.39	+1.61
2	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	11	3	.786	1	340	246	+94	9.12	+1.88
3	Houston Oilers	10	4	.714	2	293	226	+67	6.88	+3.12
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	11	.214	9	218	372	-154	3.64	-0.64

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	10	4	.714	-	395	269	+126	7.03	+2.97
2	Miami Dolphins	10	4	.714	-	357	222	+135	9.92	+0.08
3	Buffalo Bills	8	6	.571	2	420	355	+65	8.10	-0.10
4	New York Jets	3	11	.214	7	258	433	-175	4.46	-1.46
5	New England Patriots	3	11	.214	7	258	358	-100	5.31	-2.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	11	3	.786	-	375	255	+120	10.04	+0.96
2	Denver Broncos	6	8	.429	5	254	307	-53	6.62	-0.62
3	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	.357	6	282	341	-59	6.35	-1.35
4	San Diego Chargers	2	12	.143	9	189	345	-156	3.50	-1.50

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	.857	-	377	180	+197	11.07	+0.93
2	Detroit Lions	7	7	.500	5	245	262	-17	7.31	-0.31
3	Chicago Bears	4	10	.286	8	191	379	-188	3.55	+0.45
4	Green Bay Packers	4	10	.286	8	226	285	-59	4.78	-0.78

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Cardinals Division	11	3	.786	-	356	276	+80	8.39	+2.61
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	4	.714	1	350	268	+82	9.78	+0.22
3	Washington Redskins	8	6	.571	3	325	276	+49	8.91	-0.91
4	New York Giants	5	9	.357	6	216	306	-90	5.00	0.00
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	10	.286	7	225	302	-77	5.00	-1.00

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	2	.857	-	312	135	+177	10.29	+1.71
2	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	7	255	286	-31	6.86	-1.86
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	10	.286	8	240	289	-49	5.15	-1.15
4	New Orleans Saints	2	12	.143	10	165	360	-195	4.54	-2.54

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Baltimore Colts 10

Dec 27

Oakland Raiders 31

Cincinnati Bengals 28

Dec 28

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Oakland Raiders 10

Jan 4

NFC

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams 35

St. Louis Cardinals 23

Dec 27

Dallas Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings 14

Dec 28

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 37

Los Angeles Rams 7

Jan 4

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Dallas Cowboys 17

Jan 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1792	12	10.39	+1.61	92.14%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1767	12	10.29	+1.71	93.50%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1740	12	11.07	+0.93	83.95%	3	9	10	11	12	13	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1681	10	7.03	+2.97	98.24%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1681	10	9.92	+0.08	63.24%	2	7	9	10	11	12	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1674	11	10.04	+0.96	83.08%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1661	10	9.78	+0.22	66.36%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1655	11	8.39	+2.61	96.81%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1633	11	9.12	+1.88	92.82%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1615	10	6.88	+3.12	98.09%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1577	8	8.10	-0.10	59.28%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1495	8	8.91	-0.91	39.97%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1473	7	7.31	-0.31	54.81%	0	5	6	7	8	10	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1444	4	5.00	-1.00	40.00%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1426	4	4.78	-0.78	44.54%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1422	6	6.62	-0.62	47.56%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1403	4	5.15	-1.15	36.31%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1383	3	3.64	-0.64	48.46%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1367	5	6.35	-1.35	31.50%	0	4	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1356	5	5.00	0.00	62.81%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1339	3	5.31	-2.31	14.40%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1332	5	6.86	-1.86	22.58%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1328	4	3.55	+0.45	74.27%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1284	2	3.50	-1.50	27.35%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1277	3	4.46	-1.46	28.66%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1196	2	4.54	-2.54	10.82%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-3 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	-	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.55%	0.55%	1.37%	1.65%	1.37%	1.10%	0.82%	7.42%
7–13	0.55%	4.95%	4.40%	5.49%	1.65%	1.65%	1.37%	20.05%
14–20	1.37%	4.40%	5.49%	5.77%	4.67%	1.65%	1.37%	24.73%
21–27	1.65%	5.49%	5.77%	4.40%	3.02%	1.10%	—	21.43%
28–34	1.37%	1.65%	4.67%	3.02%	2.20%	1.37%	0.55%	14.84%
35–41	1.10%	1.65%	1.65%	1.10%	1.37%	—	0.27%	7.14%
42+	0.82%	1.37%	1.37%	—	0.55%	0.27%	—	4.40%
Total	7.42%	20.05%	24.73%	21.43%	14.84%	7.14%	4.40%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.59	20.59	+0.00
SD	10.80	10.80	16.67
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	52	52	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.14	20.64	-3.50
SD	10.92	10.15	15.00
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	35	38	+22
Min	0	3	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.21	19.21	+9.00
SD	13.05	11.42	14.56
CV	0.46	0.59	—
Max	52	38	+33
Min	10	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	25.36	+4.64
SD	9.77	9.72	14.83
CV	0.33	0.38	—
Max	45	42	+28
Min	13	14	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.64	27.07	-13.43
SD	11.30	10.22	18.33
CV	0.83	0.38	—
Max	42	46	+25
Min	3	13	-33

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	57.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.29	17.57	+6.71
SD	8.53	10.94	14.67
CV	0.35	0.62	—
Max	47	35	+31
Min	14	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.57	26.57	-11.00
SD	10.17	10.05	16.93
CV	0.65	0.38	—
Max	40	42	+26
Min	6	14	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	19.14	+5.86
SD	8.44	10.73	10.43
CV	0.34	0.56	—
Max	37	34	+26
Min	13	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.14	21.93	-3.79
SD	7.69	10.82	12.37
CV	0.42	0.49	—
Max	37	42	+15
Min	9	10	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	28.57%	35.71%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	18.71	-1.21
SD	8.27	8.14	13.58
CV	0.47	0.43	—
Max	30	36	+20
Min	0	7	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	20.36	-4.21
SD	9.62	7.28	14.84
CV	0.60	0.36	—
Max	40	31	+26
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.93	16.14	+4.79
SD	8.91	8.55	12.66
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	40	32	+30
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	24.36	-4.21
SD	11.37	9.44	15.06
CV	0.56	0.39	—
Max	42	40	+32
Min	3	10	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	9.64	+12.64
SD	10.64	6.50	12.62
CV	0.48	0.67	—
Max	42	24	+39
Min	7	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	15.86	+9.64
SD	10.86	10.03	16.18
CV	0.43	0.63	—
Max	46	33	+43
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.93	12.86	+14.07
SD	8.65	8.33	12.49
CV	0.32	0.65	—
Max	42	31	+38
Min	10	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	25.57	-7.14
SD	10.29	10.70	12.11
CV	0.56	0.42	—
Max	33	45	+14
Min	0	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.79	25.71	-13.93
SD	7.09	12.81	14.76
CV	0.60	0.50	—
Max	23	48	+16
Min	0	7	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	35.71%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.43	21.86	-6.43
SD	9.72	10.73	14.34
CV	0.63	0.49	—
Max	35	49	+14
Min	0	13	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	30.93	-12.50
SD	10.68	11.80	18.53
CV	0.58	0.38	—
Max	36	52	+29
Min	0	7	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.79	18.21	+8.57
SD	12.54	11.60	16.49
CV	0.47	0.64	—
Max	48	42	+38
Min	6	0	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.07	21.57	-5.50
SD	8.19	10.11	16.54
CV	0.51	0.47	—
Max	27	42	+23
Min	0	3	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.64	11.57	+15.07
SD	10.10	8.36	14.55
CV	0.38	0.72	—
Max	42	30	+37
Min	3	0	-9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.50	24.64	-11.14
SD	9.12	11.74	13.13
CV	0.68	0.48	—
Max	28	47	+8
Min	0	6	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	—	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.21	20.43	-2.21
SD	8.23	9.54	14.28
CV	0.45	0.47	—
Max	35	31	+28
Min	3	3	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	50.00%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.43	19.71	+5.71
SD	6.64	8.07	11.96
CV	0.26	0.41	—
Max	37	37	+31
Min	14	6	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	19.71	+3.50
SD	12.78	8.80	18.16
CV	0.55	0.45	—
Max	49	31	+38
Min	3	3	-23

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.73	+0.4
Allowed	0.68	-0.4
Differential	0.92	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	10	6.88	+3.12
2	Baltimore Colts	10	7.03	+2.97
3	St. Louis Cardinals	11	8.39	+2.61
4	Cincinnati Bengals	11	9.12	+1.88
5	Los Angeles Rams	12	10.29	+1.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	2	4.54	-2.54
2	New England Patriots	3	5.31	-2.31
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	6.86	-1.86
4	San Diego Chargers	2	3.50	-1.50
5	New York Jets	3	4.46	-1.46

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Colts	9	Oct 26 – Dec 21	1 in 426
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	Oct 5 – Dec 13	1 in 23
3	San Francisco 49ers	3	Nov 9 – Nov 23	1 in 19
4	San Diego Chargers	2	Dec 7 – Dec 15	1 in 16
5	St. Louis Cardinals	6	Oct 19 – Nov 23	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 35
2	San Diego Chargers	11	Sep 21 – Nov 30	1 in 27
3	New Orleans Saints	7	Nov 9 – Dec 21	1 in 17
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 17
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	Sep 21 – Nov 16	1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.31%	27.26%	6.22%	0.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	28.00%	51.56%	19.16%	1.28%
Houston Oilers	5.62%	20.20%	63.78%	10.40%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.07%	0.98%	10.84%	88.11%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	66.81%	23.20%	7.74%	1.88%	0.36%
Buffalo Bills	23.21%	42.68%	22.29%	8.90%	2.92%
Baltimore Colts	7.93%	23.34%	39.33%	20.74%	8.65%
New England Patriots	1.44%	7.00%	18.50%	38.63%	34.43%
New York Jets	0.60%	3.78%	12.14%	29.84%	53.65%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	86.98%	10.83%	2.02%	0.17%
Denver Broncos	7.61%	45.99%	37.50%	8.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.21%	39.20%	45.12%	10.47%
San Diego Chargers	0.21%	3.97%	15.36%	80.47%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	93.18%	6.49%	0.32%	0.02%
Detroit Lions	6.31%	73.54%	16.68%	3.46%
Green Bay Packers	0.43%	15.31%	55.86%	28.40%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	4.66%	27.15%	68.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	50.52%	30.13%	15.74%	3.05%	0.56%
Washington Redskins	30.11%	35.03%	26.21%	7.00%	1.65%
St. Louis Cardinals	18.05%	28.89%	36.93%	12.28%	3.84%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.71%	3.06%	10.65%	39.20%	46.39%
New York Giants	0.60%	2.90%	10.48%	38.47%	47.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	89.04%	9.58%	1.23%	0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	8.31%	55.74%	25.24%	10.71%
Atlanta Falcons	1.94%	22.17%	42.11%	33.78%
New Orleans Saints	0.70%	12.51%	31.42%	55.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.65%	23.78%	16.59%	11.86%	7.17%	3.88%	2.19%	1.19%	0.48%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	23.05%	25.13%	24.15%	12.14%	6.85%	4.44%	2.12%	1.20%	0.62%	0.21%	0.07%	0.02%	<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	22.98%	22.53%	19.10%	13.00%	9.36%	5.45%	3.52%	2.08%	1.06%	0.62%	0.22%	0.08%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	12.61%	12.62%	14.51%	20.40%	14.68%	9.72%	6.90%	4.56%	2.38%	0.97%	0.46%	0.16%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	4.77%	7.80%	10.63%	14.10%	17.72%	13.42%	10.59%	8.16%	5.38%	4.10%	1.99%	0.96%	0.39%
Baltimore Colts	1.15%	2.54%	4.24%	7.43%	10.99%	12.86%	15.76%	14.11%	11.07%	9.63%	5.36%	3.29%	1.57%
Houston Oilers	1.59%	2.45%	3.91%	7.64%	9.20%	11.81%	14.93%	17.09%	13.76%	8.01%	5.31%	2.94%	1.35%
Denver Broncos	0.70%	1.66%	3.37%	6.15%	9.91%	15.53%	14.30%	13.90%	14.89%	9.00%	5.87%	3.28%	1.46%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.38%	1.04%	2.34%	4.59%	8.51%	13.73%	13.39%	14.64%	16.73%	10.89%	7.34%	4.23%	2.19%
New England Patriots	0.08%	0.35%	0.79%	1.69%	3.25%	4.83%	7.86%	9.71%	12.73%	19.38%	15.18%	13.07%	11.08%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.08%	0.27%	0.66%	1.54%	2.46%	4.59%	6.41%	9.13%	16.54%	17.42%	19.10%	21.77%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	<0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.38%	0.81%	1.84%	3.53%	5.69%	10.42%	21.02%	28.46%	27.58%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.14%	0.45%	1.09%	2.02%	3.42%	6.08%	10.07%	19.71%	24.40%	32.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	44.22%	27.52%	16.94%	6.07%	3.15%	1.32%	0.52%	0.18%	0.07%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Los Angeles Rams	22.95%	27.06%	26.95%	11.05%	6.22%	3.18%	1.49%	0.66%	0.27%	0.12%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	17.18%	20.19%	18.98%	18.00%	10.75%	6.96%	4.38%	1.87%	0.94%	0.49%	0.18%	0.06%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	8.63%	11.99%	15.14%	20.93%	14.35%	11.58%	8.08%	4.15%	2.45%	1.47%	0.76%	0.34%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.45%	7.90%	10.88%	17.69%	15.92%	14.94%	12.08%	6.52%	4.27%	2.71%	1.46%	0.81%	0.36%
Detroit Lions	1.50%	2.59%	4.88%	11.57%	19.35%	18.44%	15.88%	10.09%	6.83%	4.29%	2.53%	1.44%	0.61%
San Francisco 49ers	0.87%	1.92%	3.98%	7.79%	15.24%	17.14%	15.55%	12.82%	8.88%	6.32%	4.89%	3.03%	1.56%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%	0.27%	0.77%	1.93%	4.62%	7.22%	10.02%	13.95%	14.34%	13.74%	13.67%	11.71%	7.69%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.10%	0.20%	0.82%	2.80%	4.87%	7.65%	13.28%	15.60%	15.58%	14.64%	12.92%	11.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%	0.21%	0.55%	1.72%	2.45%	4.47%	7.60%	10.06%	13.20%	15.57%	14.39%	14.71%	15.00%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.19%	0.46%	1.50%	2.39%	4.43%	7.79%	10.09%	13.29%	15.49%	14.60%	15.19%	14.56%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.06%	0.24%	0.77%	2.20%	4.18%	6.47%	11.03%	11.88%	13.61%	16.83%	17.33%	15.38%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.14%	0.56%	1.27%	2.48%	5.31%	7.99%	10.58%	16.01%	22.43%	33.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Minnesota Vikings	27.37%	19.52%	13.92%	12.11%	8.04%	7.15%	3.38%	3.16%	1.80%	1.39%	0.79%	0.56%	0.30%	0.24%	0.11%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-	<0.01%	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.84%	15.15%	12.80%	11.47%	9.62%	8.13%	6.78%	5.51%	4.09%	3.23%	2.26%	1.64%	1.21%	0.80%	0.59%	0.34%	0.23%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Los Angeles Rams	13.21%	12.68%	13.63%	12.72%	11.73%	11.36%	6.13%	5.72%	3.55%	3.21%	1.80%	1.55%	0.86%	0.72%	0.37%	0.29%	0.18%	0.11%	0.08%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	10.07%	11.96%	11.99%	12.85%	11.37%	11.67%	7.10%	6.61%	4.29%	3.42%	2.64%	1.97%	1.38%	0.86%	0.66%	0.43%	0.30%	0.20%	0.09%	0.06%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Miami Dolphins	9.97%	11.72%	10.89%	11.47%	9.89%	9.69%	7.52%	6.84%	5.38%	4.23%	3.27%	2.40%	2.01%	1.38%	1.13%	0.68%	0.53%	0.34%	0.27%	0.15%	0.12%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	9.06%	9.41%	10.52%	9.86%	9.99%	9.11%	9.10%	7.72%	5.77%	4.96%	3.79%	3.03%	2.21%	1.91%	1.11%	0.81%	0.56%	0.39%	0.29%	0.16%	0.11%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.74%	6.38%	6.54%	7.15%	8.00%	8.14%	9.72%	9.73%	7.85%	7.21%	5.48%	4.72%	3.82%	2.90%	2.34%	1.80%	1.17%	0.85%	0.49%	0.39%	0.25%	0.15%	0.09%	0.06%	0.02%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins	4.31%	4.66%	6.51%	6.15%	8.19%	7.56%	9.96%	9.13%	7.68%	7.00%	6.00%	5.36%	4.12%	3.73%	2.37%	2.08%	1.45%	1.16%	0.82%	0.64%	0.43%	0.31%	0.19%	0.12%	0.06%	0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.96%	2.78%	4.06%	4.52%	5.76%	6.08%	8.25%	8.37%	8.36%	7.84%	7.50%	6.80%	5.91%	5.36%	3.84%	3.01%	2.54%	1.90%	1.56%	1.14%	0.92%	0.57%	0.44%	0.27%	0.21%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	1.71%	2.32%	3.58%	4.06%	5.39%	5.63%	7.27%	7.43%	9.11%	8.51%	7.63%	6.64%	6.34%	4.99%	4.62%	3.39%	2.91%	2.23%	2.08%	1.36%	1.05%	0.66%	0.53%	0.29%	0.21%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	0.51%	0.85%	1.25%	1.55%	2.48%	3.00%	5.15%	5.99%	7.77%	9.26%	8.00%	9.46%	7.13%	8.26%	5.67%	5.80%	3.93%	3.89%	2.64%	2.33%	1.73%	1.24%	0.95%	0.59%	0.40%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	0.28%	0.52%	0.87%	1.17%	1.74%	2.45%	3.48%	4.52%	5.85%	7.75%	7.02%	8.69%	6.93%	8.22%	6.54%	6.83%	5.18%	4.81%	3.79%	3.45%	2.93%	2.34%	1.89%	1.31%	0.91%	0.56%
Baltimore Colts	0.30%	0.59%	0.97%	1.41%	1.97%	2.52%	3.60%	4.28%	5.58%	5.99%	7.34%	7.12%	8.50%	7.57%	7.75%	6.30%	6.03%	4.97%	4.73%	3.52%	2.91%	2.08%	1.70%	1.11%	0.78%	0.41%
Houston Oilers	0.38%	0.80%	1.08%	1.33%	2.02%	2.32%	3.84%	3.84%	5.32%	4.96%	7.01%	6.12%	8.09%	7.50%	8.49%	7.29%	6.53%	5.85%	4.23%	3.65%	2.81%	2.33%	1.68%	1.22%	0.82%	0.50%
Denver Broncos	0.15%	0.32%	0.59%	0.92%	1.39%	1.94%	2.90%	3.45%	4.84%	5.62%	7.18%	8.06%	7.74%	7.40%	7.30%	7.21%	6.89%	6.42%	4.65%	4.18%	3.25%	2.70%	1.94%	1.46%	0.96%	0.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.19%	0.37%	0.60%	1.04%	1.35%	2.12%	2.74%	4.23%	4.66%	6.63%	6.86%	7.37%	6.99%	8.02%	7.19%	8.03%	7.07%	5.67%	5.01%	3.99%	3.39%	2.37%	1.89%	1.31%	0.81%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	0.04%	0.09%	0.13%	0.30%	0.41%	0.77%	0.97%	1.82%	2.11%	2.93%	3.60%	4.19%	5.21%	5.82%	7.16%	6.66%	7.87%	7.08%	7.83%	6.97%	7.36%	6.51%	6.04%	4.48%	3.62%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.18%	0.34%	0.43%	0.76%	0.96%	1.66%	1.81%	2.72%	2.77%	4.50%	4.24%	5.55%	5.36%	7.26%	6.79%	9.08%	8.17%	7.80%	7.12%	6.62%	5.87%	5.87%	3.98%
Green Bay Packers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.10%	0.13%	0.31%	0.44%	0.89%	1.44%	1.78%	2.61%	2.96%	4.13%	5.10%	6.82%	6.78%	8.28%	7.51%	8.84%	7.86%	7.98%	7.36%	6.77%	6.37%	5.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.10%	0.24%	0.34%	0.68%	0.79%	1.20%	1.35%	2.14%	2.31%	3.58%	3.85%	4.70%	5.48%	6.39%	6.76%	7.48%	8.18%	7.72%	7.86%	7.84%	7.39%	7.66%	5.82%
New York Giants	<0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.18%	0.26%	0.50%	0.73%	1.05%	1.47%	1.98%	2.46%	3.30%	4.17%	4.54%	5.74%	6.57%	6.80%	7.76%	8.05%	8.11%	7.44%	8.52%	6.97%	7.57%	5.65%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.09%	0.13%	0.27%	0.44%	0.74%	1.07%	1.56%	2.13%	2.55%	3.50%	4.19%	5.76%	5.55%	6.64%	6.70%	7.69%	8.28%	8.81%	9.02%	8.74%	8.16%	7.91%
New York Jets	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.08%	0.14%	0.27%	0.36%	0.66%	0.80%	1.36%	1.41%	2.30%	2.50%	3.62%	3.63%	5.06%	5.35%	8.02%	7.80%	8.39%	9.02%	9.12%	9.87%	10.55%	9.62%
Chicago Bears	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%	0.15%	0.27%	0.41%	0.63%	0.85%	1.28%	1.96%	2.61%	3.16%	4.30%	4.84%	6.10%	7.43%	8.71%	11.04%	12.29%	15.23%	18.59%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.09%	0.21%	0.20%	0.37%	0.48%	0.95%	1.14%	1.85%	2.00%	3.12%	3.40%	5.24%	5.66%	8.77%	10.13%	11.58%	14.43%	13.94%	16.34%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.16%	0.25%	0.40%	0.63%	0.91%	1.16%	1.76%	1.91%	2.94%	3.44%	4.82%	5.56%	8.09%	9.65%	10.51%	13.26%	14.48%	19.89%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	32.65%	22.24%	11.42%	17.61%	16.08%
Oakland Raiders	23.05%	27.30%	36.63%	2.20%	10.82%
Miami Dolphins	22.98%	24.02%	19.81%	10.46%	22.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	12.61%	9.87%	5.53%	30.30%	41.70%
Buffalo Bills	4.77%	8.18%	10.26%	13.28%	63.51%
Houston Oilers	1.59%	2.12%	1.92%	8.74%	85.63%
Baltimore Colts	1.15%	2.79%	3.99%	6.56%	85.51%
Denver Broncos	0.70%	1.80%	5.11%	5.05%	87.34%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.38%	1.13%	3.71%	3.68%	91.11%
New England Patriots	0.08%	0.40%	0.97%	1.41%	97.15%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.11%	0.46%	0.45%	98.95%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.17%	0.09%	99.71%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	<0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.17%	99.77%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	44.22%	28.78%	20.18%	2.63%	4.18%
Los Angeles Rams	22.95%	28.31%	37.78%	2.47%	8.49%
Dallas Cowboys	17.18%	19.41%	13.94%	22.59%	26.89%
Washington Redskins	8.63%	11.23%	10.24%	25.10%	44.79%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.45%	7.20%	6.40%	21.09%	60.86%
Detroit Lions	1.50%	2.19%	2.63%	13.24%	80.45%
San Francisco 49ers	0.87%	2.00%	5.45%	6.87%	84.82%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%	0.30%	1.58%	1.47%	96.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%	0.21%	0.45%	1.68%	97.61%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.18%	0.38%	1.49%	97.91%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.06%	0.62%	0.57%	98.73%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.11%	0.31%	0.68%	98.89%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	99.80%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+10.99%

Fortress

55.49%44.51%

Elo Value

Home Edge

23 Elo

0.044 points per Elo point

038.3360

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.95 points

Lean Home

-8+1.68+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.3

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

23%

Pittsburgh Steelers, 1st of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

30.2%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.33 · As Expected: 1.33 to 1.82 · Elevated: 1.82 to 2.49 · High Variance: 2.49 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.96 · Close: 2.96 to 4 · Off Target: 4 to 5.22 · Well Off Target: 5.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.32 · As Expected: 1.32 to 2.2 · More Than Expected: 2.2 to 3.51 · Far More Than Expected: 3.51 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.55 wins

As Expected

01.664

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.15

Pinpoint

03.488

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

98.24%

Baltimore Colts

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

10.82%

New Orleans Saints

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 26

As Expected

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 8

As Expected

01.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.28

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.28

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

85%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%14%100%

Blowouts

Expected

29%

Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Predictable

00.201

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.85

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.66

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Chalk Held

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Favorites Held

0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.23 · Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.05

Borderline

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.15

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.101

Within Noise

00.1140.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	83.92%	60.23%	40.58%	23.19%
Los Angeles Rams	91.51%	64.21%	37.94%	21.09%
Minnesota Vikings	95.81%	66.66%	37.16%	19.55%
Oakland Raiders	89.18%	44.47%	20.64%	9.30%
Miami Dolphins	77.27%	39.53%	18.75%	8.61%
Dallas Cowboys	73.11%	32.36%	14.20%	6.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	58.30%	27.47%	10.26%	4.24%
St. Louis Cardinals	39.14%	15.40%	6.38%	2.86%
Buffalo Bills	36.49%	12.15%	4.04%	1.44%
Baltimore Colts	14.49%	6.41%	2.99%	1.44%
Houston Oilers	14.37%	6.13%	2.16%	0.84%
Washington Redskins	55.21%	12.94%	2.93%	0.78%
Detroit Lions	19.55%	4.80%	0.92%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	12.66%	2.05%	0.38%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	15.18%	2.06%	0.22%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.89%	1.14%	0.16%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.39%	0.39%	0.07%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	3.42%	0.63%	0.11%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	1.11%	0.22%	0.04%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	2.85%	0.30%	0.04%	<0.01%
New York Giants	2.09%	0.20%	0.03%	<0.01%
New York Jets	1.05%	0.08%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	1.27%	0.08%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.24%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.19%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	0.29%	0.03%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			54.4%2.86%	100.0%<0.01%	84.2%0.42%	61.8%0.63%	88.6%0.26%				47.7%4.27%	30.1%6.02%	93.8%0.02%
Buffalo Bills			40.5%7.09%	85.7%0.02%	72.8%1.16%	44.8%1.81%	78.3%0.88%				35.0%11.47%	20.5%14.03%	83.9%0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	45.6%2.86%	59.5%7.09%			78.3%2.28%		82.2%1.64%	40.6%21.26%	88.8%0.52%	87.4%0.17%	42.4%22.43%		91.3%0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.02%			28.6%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	9.0%0.10%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	7.3%0.10%
Denver Broncos	15.8%0.42%	27.2%1.16%	21.7%2.28%	71.4%<0.01%		24.9%0.55%		15.8%3.38%	67.4%0.09%	81.0%0.02%		8.8%4.75%
Houston Oilers	38.2%0.63%	55.2%1.81%			75.1%0.55%		80.4%0.28%	37.2%5.25%	80.2%0.09%	86.8%0.04%	38.3%5.71%		81.8%0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	11.4%0.26%	21.7%0.88%	17.8%1.64%	0.0%<0.01%		19.6%0.28%		12.7%2.50%	56.0%0.05%	57.1%0.01%		6.8%3.27%
Miami Dolphins			59.4%21.26%	91.0%0.10%	84.2%3.38%	62.8%5.25%	87.3%2.50%				51.4%17.29%	34.8%27.43%	92.3%0.07%
New England Patriots			11.2%0.52%	100.0%<0.01%	32.6%0.09%	19.8%0.09%	44.0%0.05%				11.2%0.89%	5.6%1.21%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Jets			12.6%0.17%	0.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.02%	13.2%0.04%	42.9%0.01%				9.5%0.36%	2.9%0.44%	0.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	52.3%4.27%	65.0%11.47%	57.6%22.43%	92.7%0.10%		61.7%5.71%		48.6%17.29%	88.8%0.89%	90.5%0.36%		32.7%26.66%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.9%6.02%	79.5%14.03%			91.2%4.75%		93.2%3.27%	65.2%27.43%	94.4%1.21%	97.1%0.44%	67.3%26.66%		95.9%0.12%
San Diego Chargers	6.2%0.02%	16.1%0.03%	8.7%0.05%			18.2%0.01%		7.7%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		4.1%0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		100.0%<0.01%	16.9%1.15%	34.9%0.09%	40.0%<0.01%		10.8%1.30%		44.4%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%		21.8%0.30%	33.2%0.55%
Chicago Bears	0.0%<0.01%		15.8%0.08%			3.1%0.07%			0.0%<0.01%		60.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	38.7%0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	83.1%1.15%	84.2%0.08%		77.5%5.72%	83.1%0.34%	35.9%31.57%	37.0%29.20%	94.1%0.46%			88.5%4.60%
Detroit Lions	65.1%0.09%		22.5%5.72%			13.5%7.55%		82.5%0.04%	70.0%0.07%	48.9%0.09%	65.8%0.49%	23.8%2.00%	43.3%3.51%
Green Bay Packers	60.0%<0.01%		16.9%0.34%			11.0%0.40%			50.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	54.5%0.02%	21.9%0.13%	35.3%0.20%
Los Angeles Rams		96.9%0.07%	64.1%31.57%	86.5%7.55%	89.0%0.40%		52.1%12.02%		93.4%0.77%	87.0%0.88%		66.8%15.83%	83.4%22.42%
Minnesota Vikings	89.2%1.30%		63.0%29.20%			47.9%12.02%		97.0%0.43%	92.1%1.19%	87.0%1.34%	92.5%5.63%	65.0%19.05%	82.2%25.65%
New Orleans Saints			5.9%0.46%	17.5%0.04%			3.0%0.43%		25.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%		5.3%0.15%	12.6%0.18%
New York Giants	55.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		30.0%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	6.6%0.77%	7.9%1.19%	75.0%<0.01%			61.9%0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	57.1%0.01%			51.1%0.09%	71.4%<0.01%	13.0%0.88%	13.0%1.34%	80.0%<0.01%			67.2%0.06%
San Francisco 49ers		40.0%<0.01%	11.5%4.60%	34.2%0.49%	45.5%0.02%		7.5%5.63%		38.1%0.04%	32.8%0.06%		12.2%1.67%	25.9%2.67%
St. Louis Cardinals	78.2%0.30%	80.0%0.01%		76.2%2.00%	78.1%0.13%	33.2%15.83%	35.0%19.05%	94.7%0.15%			87.8%1.67%
Washington Redskins	66.8%0.55%	61.3%0.03%		56.7%3.51%	64.7%0.20%	16.6%22.42%	17.8%25.65%	87.4%0.18%			74.1%2.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		64.5%0.33%	57.4%0.61%	100.0%<0.01%	84.6%0.08%	56.3%0.12%	85.7%0.04%	50.2%1.44%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	48.6%1.71%	33.6%2.07%	100.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	35.5%0.33%		42.5%1.25%		62.2%0.10%	49.1%0.32%	82.8%0.06%	35.1%3.06%	83.3%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	35.7%3.01%	23.8%4.00%	100.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	42.6%0.61%	57.5%1.25%		100.0%<0.01%	75.5%0.20%	57.8%0.68%	82.6%0.11%	41.1%4.92%	77.1%0.03%	88.9%<0.01%	41.4%5.86%	30.1%13.78%	100.0%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%			28.6%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	15.4%0.08%	37.8%0.10%	24.5%0.20%			26.5%0.05%	57.1%<0.01%	19.7%0.46%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	18.3%0.44%	12.0%0.71%	100.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers	43.7%0.12%	50.9%0.32%	42.2%0.68%		73.5%0.05%		86.4%0.02%	39.5%1.03%	85.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	37.6%1.27%	27.1%2.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.3%0.04%	17.2%0.06%	17.4%0.11%		42.9%<0.01%	13.6%0.02%		13.4%0.25%		100.0%<0.01%	14.6%0.24%	11.6%0.40%
Miami Dolphins	49.8%1.44%	64.9%3.06%	58.9%4.92%	100.0%<0.01%	80.3%0.46%	60.5%1.03%	86.6%0.25%		88.7%0.06%	81.0%0.02%	50.9%11.82%	35.5%16.46%	100.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%0.02%	22.9%0.03%		50.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%		11.3%0.06%			15.5%0.06%	6.5%0.11%
New York Jets	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	19.0%0.02%			0.0%0.02%	9.5%0.02%
Oakland Raiders	51.4%1.71%	64.3%3.01%	58.6%5.86%	71.4%<0.01%	81.7%0.44%	62.4%1.27%	85.4%0.24%	49.1%11.82%	84.5%0.06%	100.0%0.02%		35.7%20.03%	100.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.4%2.07%	76.2%4.00%	69.9%13.78%	87.5%<0.01%	88.0%0.71%	72.9%2.63%	88.4%0.40%	64.5%16.46%	93.5%0.11%	90.5%0.02%	64.3%20.03%		88.9%<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			16.9%0.08%	22.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	15.9%0.16%	12.1%0.28%		100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	38.1%0.04%	39.4%0.03%
Chicago Bears			50.0%<0.01%			22.2%0.02%	11.1%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	83.1%0.08%	50.0%<0.01%		78.1%0.49%	69.6%0.02%	36.8%11.58%	39.8%13.72%	77.8%<0.01%	82.4%0.03%	74.3%0.07%	87.5%0.26%	51.2%3.31%	72.0%2.78%
Detroit Lions	77.8%0.02%		21.9%0.49%		100.0%<0.01%	15.6%1.81%	17.8%2.11%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	62.5%<0.01%	65.5%0.03%	29.1%0.18%	39.9%0.15%
Green Bay Packers	100.0%<0.01%		30.4%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		13.5%0.09%	15.1%0.09%			0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	84.1%0.16%	77.8%0.02%	63.2%11.58%	84.4%1.81%	86.5%0.09%		52.3%39.67%	100.0%0.01%	87.2%0.09%	90.7%0.15%	92.6%0.62%	65.7%5.56%	81.8%4.44%
Minnesota Vikings	87.9%0.28%	88.9%<0.01%	60.2%13.72%	82.2%2.11%	84.9%0.09%	47.7%39.67%		100.0%0.04%	86.7%0.06%	84.0%0.12%	91.3%0.94%	63.3%5.18%	80.9%4.45%
New Orleans Saints			22.2%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%0.01%	0.0%0.04%					16.7%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%
New York Giants	0.0%<0.01%		17.6%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%		12.8%0.09%	13.3%0.06%				100.0%<0.01%	41.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	100.0%<0.01%		25.7%0.07%	37.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	9.3%0.15%	16.0%0.12%				0.0%<0.01%	26.9%0.03%	11.1%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	100.0%<0.01%		12.5%0.26%	34.5%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	7.4%0.62%	8.7%0.94%		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		21.2%0.11%	21.5%0.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	61.9%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	48.8%3.31%	70.9%0.18%	85.7%<0.01%	34.3%5.56%	36.7%5.18%	83.3%<0.01%	58.3%0.01%	73.1%0.03%	78.8%0.11%		70.0%0.97%
Washington Redskins	60.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	28.0%2.78%	60.1%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%	18.2%4.44%	19.1%4.45%	25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	88.9%<0.01%	78.5%0.09%	30.0%0.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	100.0%<0.01%		55.4%0.44%	70.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	42.6%1.08%	47.8%1.14%		100.0%<0.01%		80.0%<0.01%	49.3%0.20%	72.7%0.09%
Buffalo Bills	80.0%<0.01%		43.2%0.58%	69.0%0.03%		31.8%1.54%	32.7%1.48%			33.3%<0.01%	80.0%0.01%	44.7%0.26%	54.0%0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	80.0%0.01%		47.6%1.39%	67.0%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	36.3%3.92%	39.9%3.83%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	72.0%0.03%	47.3%0.65%	67.5%0.31%
Cleveland Browns (1st)						33.3%<0.01%
Denver Broncos			38.2%0.06%	44.4%<0.01%		17.6%0.14%	18.7%0.13%				100.0%<0.01%	34.6%0.03%	38.5%0.01%
Houston Oilers	100.0%<0.01%		49.8%0.30%	46.2%0.03%		31.5%0.83%	38.3%0.80%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	46.0%0.15%	68.1%0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs			14.3%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		12.0%0.05%	14.9%0.07%					28.6%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	77.3%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	54.0%2.70%	74.7%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	41.4%7.22%	43.7%6.88%	100.0%<0.01%	88.9%<0.01%	75.0%0.01%	95.0%0.04%	51.3%1.15%	68.0%0.54%
New England Patriots			50.0%<0.01%			10.5%0.02%	23.1%0.01%					0.0%<0.01%
New York Jets						0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%						100.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	76.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	50.5%2.91%	72.8%0.18%	72.7%0.01%	40.2%7.87%	43.8%7.59%	100.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	64.7%0.02%	83.3%0.05%	51.0%1.38%	71.1%0.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	88.1%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	64.4%5.79%	78.4%0.38%	70.0%0.02%	52.6%15.26%	55.0%15.21%	100.0%<0.01%	91.7%0.01%	72.0%0.03%	91.1%0.08%	63.7%2.55%	81.4%1.21%
San Diego Chargers													0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons														0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		22.7%0.02%			23.1%0.03%	11.9%0.04%
Chicago Bears																					100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														44.6%0.44%	56.8%0.58%	52.4%1.39%		61.8%0.06%	50.2%0.30%	85.7%0.02%	46.0%2.70%	50.0%<0.01%		49.5%2.91%	35.6%5.79%
Detroit Lions														29.4%0.03%	31.0%0.03%	33.0%0.11%		55.6%<0.01%	53.8%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	25.3%0.15%			27.2%0.18%	21.6%0.38%
Green Bay Packers														0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%			27.3%0.01%	30.0%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams														57.4%1.08%	68.2%1.54%	63.7%3.92%	66.7%<0.01%	82.4%0.14%	68.5%0.83%	88.0%0.05%	58.6%7.22%	89.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	59.8%7.87%	47.4%15.26%
Minnesota Vikings														52.2%1.14%	67.3%1.48%	60.1%3.83%		81.3%0.13%	61.7%0.80%	85.1%0.07%	56.3%6.88%	76.9%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	56.2%7.59%	45.0%15.21%
New Orleans Saints																0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants														0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		11.1%<0.01%			12.5%<0.01%	8.3%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															66.7%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%		25.0%0.01%			35.3%0.02%	28.0%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers														20.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	28.0%0.03%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		5.0%0.04%			16.7%0.05%	8.9%0.08%
St. Louis Cardinals														50.7%0.20%	55.3%0.26%	52.7%0.65%		65.4%0.03%	54.0%0.15%	71.4%0.01%	48.7%1.15%	100.0%<0.01%		49.0%1.38%	36.3%2.55%
Washington Redskins														27.3%0.09%	46.0%0.13%	32.5%0.31%		61.5%0.01%	31.9%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	32.0%0.54%		0.0%<0.01%	28.9%0.58%	18.6%1.21%	100.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Pittsburgh Steelers	70.29%	50.13%	27.79%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	70.17%	37.92%	20.49%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	66.24%	36.79%	18.77%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	61.12%	21.97%	9.48%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Colts	29.71%	16.22%	7.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Cardinals	29.83%	12.87%	5.67%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	33.76%	12.41%	5.56%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	38.88%	11.68%	4.77%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts				29.7%100.00%
Cincinnati Bengals			38.9%100.00%
Oakland Raiders		61.1%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	70.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys			33.8%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams				70.2%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	66.2%100.00%
St. Louis Cardinals		29.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		63.3%11.48%	49.1%18.23%
Cincinnati Bengals	36.7%11.48%			27.3%27.40%
Oakland Raiders	50.9%18.23%			29.6%42.89%
Pittsburgh Steelers		72.7%27.40%	70.4%42.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys		33.8%23.83%		43.8%9.93%
Los Angeles Rams	66.2%23.83%		47.8%46.34%
Minnesota Vikings		52.2%46.34%		63.4%19.90%
St. Louis Cardinals	56.2%9.93%		36.6%19.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts	52.1%2.03%	42.1%6.17%	45.7%5.99%	53.0%2.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	47.9%1.41%	38.3%4.48%	39.1%4.30%	46.5%1.49%
Oakland Raiders	48.1%2.73%	39.4%8.24%	42.6%8.12%	50.8%2.89%
Pittsburgh Steelers	61.0%6.25%	51.9%19.03%	55.1%18.39%	61.4%6.46%
Dallas Cowboys					47.9%2.03%	52.1%1.41%	51.9%2.73%	39.0%6.25%
Los Angeles Rams					57.9%6.17%	61.7%4.48%	60.6%8.24%	48.1%19.03%
Minnesota Vikings					54.3%5.99%	60.9%4.30%	57.4%8.12%	44.9%18.39%
St. Louis Cardinals					47.0%2.03%	53.5%1.49%	49.2%2.89%	38.6%6.46%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27.79% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

60.25%

Win Prob

70.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.48%

Win Prob

55.14%

Los Angeles Rams 20.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

58.43%

Win Prob

47.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

44.69%

Win Prob

48.10%

Minnesota Vikings 18.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.24%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.71%

Win Prob

52.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

43.94%

Win Prob

44.86%

Oakland Raiders 9.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

57.75%

Win Prob

29.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.48%

Win Prob

42.63%

Baltimore Colts 7.47% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

55.15%

Win Prob

49.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.64%

Win Prob

45.75%

St. Louis Cardinals 5.67% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.61%

Win Prob

36.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

44.02%

Win Prob

38.61%

Dallas Cowboys 5.56% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

64.99%

Win Prob

33.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

43.85%

Win Prob

39.00%

Cincinnati Bengals 4.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

63.97%

Win Prob

27.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

35.98%

Win Prob

38.28%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1975-09-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1438.82	1505.92	35.14%	64.55%	-13.73	0-1
1975-09-28	Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1425.09	1550.34	37.60%	62.09%	-14.70	0-2
1975-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1410.39	1368.26	61.21%	38.47%	+22.97	1-2
1975-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1433.36	1480.90	37.74%	61.94%	+52.25	2-2
1975-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-22	1485.61	1602.78	28.89%	70.83%	-25.26	2-3
1975-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1460.35	1633.29	31.42%	68.29%	-18.76	2-4
1975-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-23	1441.59	1313.61	62.45%	37.23%	-56.31	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-38	1385.28	1713.47	10.79%	89.07%	-14.98	2-6
1975-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-16	1370.30	1660.15	18.96%	80.82%	-12.84	2-7
1975-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 35-21	1357.46	1430.77	44.82%	54.85%	+46.28	3-7
1975-11-30	@ Oakland Raiders	L 34-37	1403.74	1667.29	14.91%	84.90%	-5.83	3-8
1975-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1397.91	1624.64	25.17%	74.57%	-9.84	3-9
1975-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-9	1388.07	1403.87	53.07%	46.59%	+49.31	4-9
1975-12-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-22	1437.38	1391.37	50.94%	48.73%	-34.47	4-10
1975-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-7	1412.18	1387.28	47.90%	51.76%	+61.77	1-0
1975-09-28	Oakland Raiders	L 20-31	1473.95	1638.77	32.43%	67.27%	-24.27	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1449.68	1573.05	28.16%	71.56%	-21.08	1-2
1975-10-12	Buffalo Bills	L 31-38	1428.60	1643.69	26.44%	73.28%	-15.80	1-3
1975-10-19	@ New England Patriots	L 10-21	1412.80	1360.75	51.81%	47.86%	-38.75	1-4
1975-10-26	@ New York Jets	W 45-28	1374.05	1439.36	35.37%	64.32%	+59.77	2-4
1975-11-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-7	1433.82	1296.66	73.14%	26.59%	+22.46	3-4
1975-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 42-35	1456.28	1609.19	24.86%	74.88%	+44.63	4-4
1975-11-16	New York Jets	W 52-19	1500.91	1364.57	73.05%	26.68%	+34.59	5-4
1975-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1535.50	1727.41	20.91%	78.85%	+71.04	6-4
1975-11-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-14	1606.54	1529.53	65.85%	33.85%	+28.59	7-4
1975-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 21-0	1635.13	1312.78	83.54%	16.26%	+16.81	8-4
1975-12-14	Miami Dolphins	W 10-7	1651.94	1696.87	48.88%	50.78%	+19.84	9-4
1975-12-21	New England Patriots	W 34-21	1671.78	1348.00	88.82%	11.03%	+8.96	10-4
1975-09-21	New York Jets	W 42-14	1511.18	1465.96	61.63%	38.05%	+45.44	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-21	1556.62	1651.79	31.55%	68.15%	+46.08	2-0
1975-10-05	Denver Broncos	W 38-14	1602.70	1550.26	62.60%	37.08%	+40.99	3-0
1975-10-12	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-31	1643.69	1428.60	73.28%	26.44%	+15.79	4-0
1975-10-20	New York Giants	L 14-17	1659.48	1389.11	85.40%	14.42%	-33.30	4-1
1975-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 30-35	1626.18	1697.69	45.07%	54.59%	-22.74	4-2
1975-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 24-23	1603.44	1379.59	74.26%	25.48%	+5.75	5-2
1975-11-09	Baltimore Colts	L 35-42	1609.19	1456.28	74.88%	24.86%	-44.63	5-3
1975-11-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-33	1564.56	1630.06	35.34%	64.34%	-23.93	5-4
1975-11-23	New England Patriots	W 45-31	1540.63	1433.77	69.59%	30.12%	+25.43	6-4
1975-11-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 32-14	1566.06	1626.94	35.95%	63.73%	+60.95	7-4
1975-12-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-31	1627.01	1669.44	38.43%	61.25%	-27.43	7-5
1975-12-14	@ New England Patriots	W 34-14	1599.58	1373.46	74.50%	25.23%	+25.47	8-5
1975-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-35	1625.05	1691.61	45.78%	53.89%	-48.45	8-6
1975-09-21	Baltimore Colts	L 7-35	1387.28	1412.18	51.76%	47.90%	-61.78	0-1
1975-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-13	1325.50	1439.07	39.18%	60.49%	+19.29	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-28	1344.79	1652.93	11.95%	87.90%	-13.47	1-2
1975-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1331.32	1511.57	22.04%	77.71%	-22.24	1-3
1975-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-34	1309.08	1664.01	9.39%	90.48%	-11.79	1-4
1975-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-13	1297.29	1695.63	11.15%	88.70%	-5.03	1-5
1975-11-02	Miami Dolphins	L 13-46	1292.26	1720.43	9.56%	90.31%	-12.37	1-6
1975-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 27-14	1279.89	1376.38	41.55%	58.12%	+47.24	2-6
1975-11-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1327.13	1408.76	33.26%	66.44%	-39.72	2-7
1975-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-38	1287.41	1672.99	8.00%	91.89%	-9.53	2-8
1975-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1277.88	1382.37	30.41%	69.30%	-31.45	2-9
1975-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 25-21	1246.43	1487.32	23.67%	76.08%	+34.28	3-9
1975-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-34	1280.71	1613.40	15.47%	84.34%	-13.06	3-10
1975-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 42-17	1267.65	1256.38	45.95%	53.72%	+60.57	4-10
1975-09-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-17	1527.61	1469.18	63.41%	36.28%	+21.66	1-0
1975-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-0	1549.27	1404.46	64.69%	35.00%	+36.20	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-19	1585.47	1501.96	56.30%	43.37%	+13.84	3-0
1975-10-12	New England Patriots	W 27-10	1599.31	1377.71	81.55%	18.23%	+16.96	4-0
1975-10-19	Oakland Raiders	W 14-10	1616.27	1568.44	61.98%	37.70%	+17.02	5-0
1975-10-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1633.29	1460.35	68.29%	31.42%	+18.76	6-0
1975-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1652.05	1683.59	50.81%	48.86%	-28.07	6-1
1975-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1623.98	1413.43	72.77%	26.96%	+6.08	7-1
1975-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 33-24	1630.06	1564.56	64.34%	35.34%	+23.93	8-1
1975-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-35	1653.99	1253.32	88.83%	11.02%	-69.27	8-2
1975-11-30	Houston Oilers	W 23-19	1584.72	1571.01	57.27%	42.40%	+19.14	9-2
1975-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-0	1603.86	1435.43	67.73%	31.98%	+40.19	10-2
1975-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-35	1644.05	1801.37	24.39%	75.35%	-25.23	10-3
1975-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 47-17	1618.82	1298.24	88.64%	11.21%	+13.85	11-3
1975-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1469.18	1527.61	36.28%	63.41%	-21.66	0-1
1975-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-42	1447.52	1611.37	32.55%	67.15%	-41.56	0-2
1975-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-42	1405.96	1605.71	28.19%	71.53%	-38.18	0-3
1975-10-12	Houston Oilers	L 10-40	1367.78	1488.12	38.26%	61.42%	-47.30	0-4
1975-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 15-16	1320.48	1489.15	23.21%	76.54%	-5.24	0-5
1975-10-26	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1315.24	1587.25	20.59%	79.18%	-18.58	0-6
1975-11-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-21	1296.66	1433.82	26.59%	73.14%	-22.45	0-7
1975-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-21	1274.21	1519.34	16.31%	83.50%	-12.20	0-8
1975-11-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-38	1262.01	1637.84	8.42%	91.46%	-8.69	0-9
1975-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-23	1253.32	1653.99	11.02%	88.83%	+69.27	1-9
1975-11-30	New Orleans Saints	W 17-16	1322.59	1309.17	57.22%	42.45%	+9.57	2-9
1975-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-31	1332.16	1796.97	5.23%	94.70%	-4.40	2-10
1975-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-14	1327.76	1445.65	38.59%	61.08%	+70.21	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-21	1397.97	1600.18	19.95%	79.82%	-14.93	3-11
1975-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 18-7	1575.54	1577.12	55.10%	44.57%	+33.35	1-0
1975-09-28	St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-31	1608.89	1519.65	67.41%	32.29%	+17.85	2-0
1975-10-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 36-10	1626.74	1565.04	53.19%	46.47%	+53.47	3-0
1975-10-12	@ New York Giants	W 13-7	1680.21	1400.07	79.94%	19.84%	+10.96	4-0
1975-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 17-19	1691.17	1368.74	88.74%	11.11%	-28.25	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1662.92	1441.00	74.04%	25.69%	+10.04	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-30	1672.96	1605.84	53.97%	45.70%	-29.81	5-2
1975-11-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-34	1643.15	1505.13	73.24%	26.49%	-28.58	5-3
1975-11-16	@ New England Patriots	W 34-31	1614.57	1446.27	67.71%	31.99%	+12.51	6-3
1975-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1627.08	1408.74	81.27%	18.51%	+13.21	7-3
1975-11-30	New York Giants	W 14-3	1640.29	1321.23	88.55%	11.30%	+8.45	8-3
1975-12-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1648.74	1565.99	56.19%	43.48%	-47.41	8-4
1975-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-10	1601.33	1634.47	50.58%	49.08%	+50.74	9-4
1975-12-21	@ New York Jets	W 31-21	1652.07	1286.76	86.66%	13.17%	+9.39	10-4
1975-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-33	1509.53	1476.38	59.97%	39.70%	+17.92	1-0
1975-09-29	Green Bay Packers	W 23-13	1527.45	1435.51	67.75%	31.95%	+22.81	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1550.26	1602.70	37.08%	62.60%	-41.00	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-20	1509.26	1643.89	26.87%	72.85%	-20.11	2-2
1975-10-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-15	1489.15	1320.48	76.54%	23.21%	+5.23	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-26	1494.38	1489.11	45.09%	54.57%	-36.68	3-3
1975-11-02	Oakland Raiders	L 17-42	1457.70	1570.91	39.23%	60.44%	-44.27	3-4
1975-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-17	1413.43	1623.98	26.96%	72.77%	-6.08	3-5
1975-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1407.35	1245.67	66.87%	32.83%	+23.42	4-5
1975-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-35	1430.77	1357.46	54.85%	44.82%	-46.27	4-6
1975-11-30	San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1384.50	1218.80	76.23%	23.51%	+9.19	5-6
1975-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1393.69	1673.11	13.79%	86.03%	-8.23	5-7
1975-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 25-10	1385.46	1395.25	53.93%	45.73%	+39.96	6-7
1975-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-14	1425.42	1677.03	15.80%	84.00%	-3.56	6-8
1975-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-16	1507.07	1478.78	48.39%	51.28%	+43.27	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1550.34	1425.09	62.09%	37.60%	+14.70	2-0
1975-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-36	1565.04	1626.74	46.47%	53.19%	-53.47	2-1
1975-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 27-7	1511.57	1331.32	77.71%	22.04%	+22.25	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-25	1533.82	1681.58	25.42%	74.32%	-14.05	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 8-24	1519.77	1556.84	39.16%	60.51%	-35.36	3-3
1975-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-17	1484.41	1424.15	52.98%	46.68%	+34.93	4-3
1975-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-10	1519.34	1274.21	83.50%	16.31%	+12.20	5-3
1975-11-16	Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1531.54	1329.13	79.84%	19.94%	+7.79	6-3
1975-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1539.33	1510.60	48.45%	51.21%	-18.93	6-4
1975-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1520.40	1682.52	32.77%	66.93%	-33.08	6-5
1975-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-25	1487.32	1246.43	76.08%	23.67%	-34.28	6-6
1975-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-10	1453.04	1739.60	19.26%	80.52%	+47.98	7-6
1975-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-24	1501.02	1626.45	37.57%	62.11%	-28.12	7-7
1975-09-21	Detroit Lions	L 16-30	1478.78	1507.07	51.28%	48.39%	-43.27	0-1
1975-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1435.51	1527.45	31.95%	67.75%	-22.81	0-2
1975-10-05	Miami Dolphins	L 7-31	1412.70	1599.71	29.70%	70.01%	-32.84	0-3
1975-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 19-20	1379.86	1345.29	49.29%	50.37%	-11.12	0-4
1975-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-17	1368.74	1691.17	11.11%	88.74%	+28.25	1-4
1975-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1396.99	1675.80	19.96%	79.81%	-7.80	1-5
1975-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-28	1389.19	1700.65	17.13%	82.66%	-12.81	1-6
1975-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1376.38	1279.89	58.12%	41.55%	-47.25	1-7
1975-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1329.13	1531.54	19.94%	79.84%	-7.79	1-8
1975-11-23	New York Giants	W 40-14	1321.34	1382.27	46.59%	53.08%	+61.03	2-8
1975-11-30	Chicago Bears	W 28-7	1382.37	1277.88	69.30%	30.41%	+31.46	3-8
1975-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-24	1413.83	1727.60	11.61%	88.24%	-12.00	3-9
1975-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 5-22	1401.83	1721.67	11.26%	88.59%	-10.46	3-10
1975-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-13	1391.37	1437.38	48.73%	50.94%	+34.47	4-10
1975-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 7-0	1436.56	1488.32	37.17%	62.51%	+37.28	1-0
1975-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 33-17	1473.84	1375.42	68.55%	31.15%	+28.12	2-0
1975-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-21	1501.96	1585.47	43.37%	56.30%	-13.84	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 40-10	1488.12	1367.78	61.42%	38.26%	+47.30	3-1
1975-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1535.42	1608.67	44.83%	54.84%	+21.42	4-1
1975-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-8	1556.84	1519.77	60.51%	39.16%	+35.35	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-13	1592.19	1525.80	53.86%	45.80%	+20.67	6-1
1975-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1612.86	1711.66	31.10%	68.60%	-18.58	6-2
1975-11-16	Miami Dolphins	W 20-19	1594.28	1742.08	34.61%	65.08%	+14.67	7-2
1975-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-32	1608.95	1753.34	35.05%	64.64%	-37.94	7-3
1975-11-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-23	1571.01	1584.72	42.40%	57.27%	-19.14	7-4
1975-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1551.87	1436.78	60.70%	38.98%	+32.91	8-4
1975-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-26	1584.78	1681.34	31.38%	68.32%	+15.40	9-4
1975-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-10	1600.18	1397.97	79.82%	19.95%	+14.93	10-4
1975-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 33-37	1476.38	1509.53	39.70%	59.97%	-17.92	0-1
1975-09-28	New York Jets	L 24-30	1458.46	1420.51	60.64%	39.04%	-33.48	0-2
1975-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1424.98	1430.14	54.59%	45.08%	-50.75	0-3
1975-10-12	Oakland Raiders	W 42-10	1374.23	1672.32	18.25%	81.54%	+103.88	1-3
1975-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 12-10	1478.11	1329.38	65.20%	34.49%	+11.00	2-3
1975-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 26-13	1489.11	1494.38	54.57%	45.09%	+36.69	3-3
1975-11-02	Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1525.80	1592.19	45.80%	53.86%	-20.67	3-4
1975-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1505.13	1643.15	26.49%	73.24%	+28.58	4-4
1975-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-28	1533.71	1730.24	20.48%	79.29%	-23.11	4-5
1975-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1510.60	1539.33	51.21%	48.45%	+18.93	5-5
1975-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-28	1529.53	1606.54	33.85%	65.85%	-28.58	5-6
1975-12-07	San Diego Chargers	L 20-28	1500.95	1209.61	86.83%	13.00%	-55.30	5-7
1975-12-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-40	1445.65	1327.76	61.08%	38.59%	-70.21	5-8
1975-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-28	1375.44	1665.94	13.05%	86.78%	-8.32	5-9
1975-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-18	1577.12	1575.54	44.57%	55.10%	-33.35	0-1
1975-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-14	1543.77	1459.42	56.42%	43.25%	+29.28	1-1
1975-10-05	Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1573.05	1449.68	71.56%	28.16%	+21.08	2-1
1975-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1594.13	1338.02	77.63%	22.12%	+8.65	3-1
1975-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-7	1602.78	1485.61	70.83%	28.89%	+25.25	4-1
1975-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 38-14	1628.03	1327.30	87.44%	12.40%	+13.70	5-1
1975-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-3	1641.73	1430.96	72.80%	26.93%	+37.96	6-1
1975-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1679.69	1389.22	86.78%	13.06%	-19.54	6-2
1975-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-7	1660.15	1370.30	80.82%	18.96%	+12.84	7-2
1975-11-23	Chicago Bears	W 38-10	1672.99	1287.41	91.89%	8.00%	+9.53	8-2
1975-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1682.52	1520.40	66.93%	32.77%	+33.08	9-2
1975-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1715.60	1299.59	89.68%	10.18%	+6.07	10-2
1975-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 22-5	1721.67	1401.83	88.59%	11.26%	+10.46	11-2
1975-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-3	1732.13	1826.60	41.83%	57.84%	+34.51	12-2
1975-09-22	Oakland Raiders	L 21-31	1617.09	1597.34	58.11%	41.56%	-41.43	0-1
1975-09-28	@ New England Patriots	W 22-14	1575.66	1451.04	62.00%	37.68%	+24.05	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-7	1599.71	1412.70	70.01%	29.70%	+32.85	2-1
1975-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-16	1632.56	1487.32	74.04%	25.69%	+16.40	3-1
1975-10-19	@ New York Jets	W 43-0	1648.96	1488.09	66.77%	32.93%	+48.73	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-30	1697.69	1626.18	54.59%	45.07%	+22.74	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 46-13	1720.43	1292.26	90.31%	9.56%	+12.38	6-1
1975-11-09	New York Jets	W 27-7	1732.81	1373.83	90.68%	9.20%	+9.27	7-1
1975-11-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 19-20	1742.08	1594.28	65.08%	34.61%	-14.67	7-2
1975-11-23	Baltimore Colts	L 17-33	1727.41	1535.50	78.85%	20.91%	-71.04	7-3
1975-12-01	New England Patriots	W 20-7	1656.37	1408.33	83.73%	16.08%	+13.07	8-3
1975-12-07	Buffalo Bills	W 31-21	1669.44	1627.01	61.25%	38.43%	+27.43	9-3
1975-12-14	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-10	1696.87	1651.94	50.78%	48.88%	-19.84	9-4
1975-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 14-13	1677.03	1425.42	84.00%	15.80%	+3.57	10-4
1975-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-17	1590.09	1480.70	69.90%	29.82%	+21.28	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-10	1611.37	1447.52	67.15%	32.55%	+41.56	2-0
1975-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 28-3	1652.93	1344.79	87.90%	11.95%	+13.47	3-0
1975-10-12	New York Jets	W 29-21	1666.40	1503.27	75.97%	23.78%	+15.18	4-0
1975-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 25-19	1681.58	1533.82	74.32%	25.42%	+14.05	5-0
1975-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1695.63	1297.29	88.70%	11.15%	+5.02	6-0
1975-11-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-17	1700.65	1389.19	82.66%	17.13%	+12.82	7-0
1975-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-0	1713.47	1385.28	89.07%	10.79%	+14.99	8-0
1975-11-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1728.46	1347.26	87.68%	12.17%	+9.88	9-0
1975-11-23	San Diego Chargers	W 28-13	1738.34	1222.24	96.00%	3.94%	+3.44	10-0
1975-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-31	1741.78	1610.46	62.90%	36.78%	-14.18	10-1
1975-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1727.60	1413.83	88.24%	11.61%	+12.00	11-1
1975-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1739.60	1453.04	80.52%	19.26%	-47.99	11-2
1975-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-13	1691.61	1625.05	53.89%	45.78%	+48.45	12-2
1975-09-21	Houston Oilers	L 0-7	1488.32	1436.56	62.51%	37.17%	-37.28	0-1
1975-09-28	Miami Dolphins	L 14-22	1451.04	1575.66	37.68%	62.00%	-24.05	0-2
1975-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 7-36	1426.99	1453.99	40.55%	59.12%	-49.28	0-3
1975-10-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1377.71	1599.31	18.23%	81.55%	-16.96	0-4
1975-10-19	Baltimore Colts	W 21-10	1360.75	1412.80	47.86%	51.81%	+38.75	1-4
1975-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-16	1399.50	1457.76	46.97%	52.70%	+33.61	2-4
1975-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1433.11	1555.77	28.25%	71.47%	-16.86	2-5
1975-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-19	1416.25	1275.70	64.13%	35.56%	+30.02	3-5
1975-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 31-34	1446.27	1614.57	31.99%	67.71%	-12.50	3-6
1975-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-45	1433.77	1540.63	30.12%	69.59%	-25.44	3-7
1975-12-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1408.33	1656.37	16.08%	83.73%	-13.08	3-8
1975-12-07	New York Jets	L 28-30	1395.25	1298.30	68.37%	31.33%	-21.79	3-9
1975-12-14	Buffalo Bills	L 14-34	1373.46	1599.58	25.23%	74.50%	-25.46	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-34	1348.00	1671.78	11.03%	88.82%	-8.97	3-11
1975-09-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-41	1441.18	1580.09	26.39%	73.34%	-36.72	0-1
1975-09-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1404.46	1549.27	35.00%	64.69%	-36.20	0-2
1975-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-14	1368.26	1410.39	38.47%	61.21%	-22.97	0-3
1975-10-12	Green Bay Packers	W 20-19	1345.29	1379.86	50.37%	49.29%	+11.12	1-3
1975-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1356.41	1428.65	34.46%	65.23%	-29.11	1-4
1975-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1327.30	1628.03	12.40%	87.44%	-13.69	1-5
1975-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1313.61	1441.59	37.23%	62.45%	+56.31	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-48	1369.92	1615.18	16.29%	83.51%	-22.66	2-6
1975-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-20	1347.26	1728.46	12.17%	87.68%	-9.89	2-7
1975-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-16	1337.37	1448.48	39.52%	60.15%	-28.20	2-8
1975-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-17	1309.17	1322.59	42.45%	57.22%	-9.58	2-9
1975-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1299.59	1715.60	10.18%	89.68%	-6.07	2-10
1975-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1293.52	1295.97	43.99%	55.67%	-37.14	2-11
1975-12-21	Chicago Bears	L 17-42	1256.38	1267.65	53.72%	45.95%	-60.57	2-12
1975-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-14	1416.21	1482.67	35.22%	64.47%	+43.59	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-49	1459.80	1616.80	24.42%	75.32%	-33.07	1-1
1975-10-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-26	1426.73	1501.80	34.10%	65.59%	-26.66	1-2
1975-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-13	1400.07	1680.21	19.84%	79.94%	-10.96	1-3
1975-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1389.11	1659.48	14.42%	85.40%	+33.30	2-3
1975-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-20	1422.41	1532.05	39.72%	59.95%	-23.72	2-4
1975-11-01	San Diego Chargers	W 35-24	1398.69	1298.89	68.73%	30.98%	+23.19	3-4
1975-11-09	Washington Redskins	L 13-21	1421.88	1635.65	26.59%	73.13%	-16.97	3-5
1975-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1404.91	1386.09	57.98%	41.69%	-22.64	3-6
1975-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-40	1382.27	1321.34	53.08%	46.59%	-61.04	3-7
1975-11-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-14	1321.23	1640.29	11.30%	88.55%	-8.45	3-8
1975-12-07	Baltimore Colts	L 0-21	1312.78	1635.13	16.26%	83.54%	-16.81	3-9
1975-12-14	New Orleans Saints	W 28-14	1295.97	1293.52	55.67%	43.99%	+37.15	4-9
1975-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-23	1333.12	1354.56	41.32%	58.35%	+22.78	5-9
1975-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-42	1465.96	1511.18	38.05%	61.63%	-45.45	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-24	1420.51	1458.46	39.04%	60.64%	+33.48	1-1
1975-10-05	New England Patriots	W 36-7	1453.99	1426.99	59.12%	40.55%	+49.28	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-29	1503.27	1666.40	23.78%	75.97%	-15.18	2-2
1975-10-19	Miami Dolphins	L 0-43	1488.09	1648.96	32.93%	66.77%	-48.73	2-3
1975-10-26	Baltimore Colts	L 28-45	1439.36	1374.05	64.32%	35.37%	-59.77	2-4
1975-11-02	Buffalo Bills	L 23-24	1379.59	1603.44	25.48%	74.26%	-5.76	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1373.83	1732.81	9.20%	90.68%	-9.26	2-6
1975-11-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 19-52	1364.57	1500.91	26.68%	73.05%	-34.59	2-7
1975-11-23	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-37	1329.98	1600.95	20.69%	79.08%	-25.99	2-8
1975-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-20	1303.99	1791.28	7.00%	92.90%	-5.69	2-9
1975-12-07	@ New England Patriots	W 30-28	1298.30	1395.25	31.33%	68.37%	+21.79	3-9
1975-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-24	1320.09	1264.90	52.26%	47.41%	-33.33	3-10
1975-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1286.76	1652.07	13.17%	86.66%	-9.39	3-11
1975-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1597.34	1617.09	41.56%	58.11%	+41.43	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-20	1638.77	1473.95	67.27%	32.43%	+24.28	2-0
1975-10-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 6-0	1663.05	1347.30	83.01%	16.78%	+9.27	3-0
1975-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-42	1672.32	1374.23	81.54%	18.25%	-103.88	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-14	1568.44	1616.27	37.70%	61.98%	-17.01	3-2
1975-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 25-0	1551.43	1318.37	82.52%	17.27%	+19.48	4-2
1975-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 42-17	1570.91	1457.70	60.44%	39.23%	+44.27	5-2
1975-11-09	New Orleans Saints	W 48-10	1615.18	1369.92	83.51%	16.29%	+22.66	6-2
1975-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-17	1637.84	1262.01	91.46%	8.42%	+8.69	7-2
1975-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-23	1646.53	1631.21	46.53%	53.14%	+20.76	8-2
1975-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-34	1667.29	1403.74	84.90%	14.91%	+5.82	9-2
1975-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1673.11	1393.69	86.03%	13.79%	+8.23	10-2
1975-12-14	Houston Oilers	L 26-27	1681.34	1584.78	68.32%	31.38%	-15.40	10-3
1975-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1665.94	1375.44	86.78%	13.05%	+8.33	11-3
1975-09-21	New York Giants	L 14-23	1482.67	1416.21	64.47%	35.22%	-43.60	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-15	1439.07	1325.50	60.49%	39.18%	-19.28	0-2
1975-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 26-10	1419.79	1649.88	24.80%	74.93%	+67.53	1-2
1975-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-24	1487.32	1632.56	25.69%	74.04%	-16.40	1-3
1975-10-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-31	1470.92	1502.13	39.97%	59.71%	-29.92	1-4
1975-10-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1441.00	1662.92	25.69%	74.04%	-10.04	1-5
1975-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-42	1430.96	1641.73	26.93%	72.80%	-37.96	1-6
1975-11-09	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1393.00	1572.63	30.59%	69.12%	-6.91	1-7
1975-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1386.09	1404.91	41.69%	57.98%	+22.65	2-7
1975-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1408.74	1627.08	18.51%	81.27%	-13.21	2-8
1975-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-17	1395.53	1476.68	43.70%	55.96%	+39.90	3-8
1975-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-31	1435.43	1603.86	31.98%	67.73%	-40.18	3-9
1975-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-25	1395.25	1385.46	45.73%	53.93%	-39.97	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-3	1355.28	1583.74	17.65%	82.14%	+88.71	4-10
1975-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-0	1612.89	1414.32	71.39%	28.33%	+38.90	1-0
1975-09-28	Buffalo Bills	L 21-30	1651.79	1556.62	68.15%	31.55%	-46.08	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-6	1605.71	1405.96	71.53%	28.19%	+38.18	2-1
1975-10-12	Denver Broncos	W 20-9	1643.89	1509.26	72.85%	26.87%	+20.12	3-1
1975-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1664.01	1309.08	90.48%	9.39%	+11.79	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-13	1675.80	1396.99	79.81%	19.96%	+7.79	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-24	1683.59	1652.05	48.86%	50.81%	+28.07	6-1
1975-11-09	Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1711.66	1612.86	68.60%	31.10%	+18.58	7-1
1975-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-3	1730.24	1533.71	79.29%	20.48%	+23.10	8-1
1975-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 32-9	1753.34	1608.95	64.64%	35.05%	+37.94	9-1
1975-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 20-7	1791.28	1303.99	92.90%	7.00%	+5.69	10-1
1975-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-17	1796.97	1332.16	94.70%	5.23%	+4.40	11-1
1975-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-14	1801.37	1644.05	75.35%	24.39%	+25.23	12-1
1975-12-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-10	1826.60	1732.13	57.84%	41.83%	-34.51	12-2
1975-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-37	1414.32	1612.89	28.33%	71.39%	-38.90	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-33	1375.42	1473.84	31.15%	68.55%	-28.12	0-2
1975-10-05	Oakland Raiders	L 0-6	1347.30	1663.05	16.78%	83.01%	-9.28	0-3
1975-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-13	1338.02	1594.13	22.12%	77.63%	-8.64	0-4
1975-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-12	1329.38	1478.11	34.49%	65.20%	-11.01	0-5
1975-10-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-25	1318.37	1551.43	17.27%	82.52%	-19.48	0-6
1975-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 24-35	1298.89	1398.69	30.98%	68.73%	-23.19	0-7
1975-11-09	New England Patriots	L 19-33	1275.70	1416.25	35.56%	64.13%	-30.03	0-8
1975-11-16	Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1245.67	1407.35	32.83%	66.87%	-23.43	0-9
1975-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-28	1222.24	1738.34	3.94%	96.00%	-3.44	0-10
1975-11-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1218.80	1384.50	23.51%	76.23%	-9.19	0-11
1975-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1209.61	1500.95	13.00%	86.83%	+55.29	1-11
1975-12-15	New York Jets	W 24-16	1264.90	1320.09	47.41%	52.26%	+33.34	2-11
1975-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-47	1298.24	1618.82	11.21%	88.64%	-13.85	2-12
1975-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-27	1480.70	1590.09	29.82%	69.90%	-21.28	0-1
1975-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-23	1459.42	1543.77	43.25%	56.42%	-29.28	0-2
1975-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-3	1430.14	1424.98	45.08%	54.59%	+50.76	1-2
1975-10-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1480.90	1433.36	61.94%	37.74%	-52.25	1-3
1975-10-19	New Orleans Saints	W 35-21	1428.65	1356.41	65.23%	34.46%	+29.11	2-3
1975-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 16-24	1457.76	1399.50	52.70%	46.97%	-33.61	2-4
1975-11-02	Detroit Lions	L 17-28	1424.15	1484.41	46.68%	52.98%	-34.93	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1389.22	1679.69	13.06%	86.78%	+19.54	3-5
1975-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1408.76	1327.13	66.44%	33.26%	+39.72	4-5
1975-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-6	1448.48	1337.37	60.15%	39.52%	+28.20	5-5
1975-11-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1476.68	1395.53	55.96%	43.70%	-39.90	5-6
1975-12-07	Houston Oilers	L 13-27	1436.78	1551.87	38.98%	60.70%	-32.91	5-7
1975-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 9-31	1403.87	1388.07	46.59%	53.07%	-49.31	5-8
1975-12-21	New York Giants	L 23-26	1354.56	1333.12	58.35%	41.32%	-22.78	5-9
1975-09-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1505.92	1438.82	64.55%	35.14%	+13.73	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-37	1519.65	1608.89	32.29%	67.41%	-17.85	1-1
1975-10-05	New York Giants	W 26-14	1501.80	1426.73	65.59%	34.10%	+26.66	2-1
1975-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1528.46	1582.35	36.88%	62.80%	-26.33	2-2
1975-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-20	1502.13	1470.92	59.71%	39.97%	+29.92	3-2
1975-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 20-13	1532.05	1422.41	59.95%	39.72%	+23.72	4-2
1975-11-02	New England Patriots	W 24-17	1555.77	1433.11	71.47%	28.25%	+16.86	5-2
1975-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1572.63	1393.00	69.12%	30.59%	+6.91	6-2
1975-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1579.54	1652.62	44.85%	54.82%	+21.41	7-2
1975-11-23	@ New York Jets	W 37-6	1600.95	1329.98	79.08%	20.69%	+25.99	8-2
1975-11-27	Buffalo Bills	L 14-32	1626.94	1566.06	63.73%	35.95%	-60.95	8-3
1975-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1565.99	1648.74	43.48%	56.19%	+47.41	9-3
1975-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-20	1613.40	1280.71	84.34%	15.47%	+13.05	10-3
1975-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-13	1626.45	1501.02	62.11%	37.57%	+28.12	11-3
1975-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 41-3	1580.09	1441.18	73.34%	26.39%	+36.71	1-0
1975-09-28	New York Giants	W 49-13	1616.80	1459.80	75.32%	24.42%	+33.08	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-26	1649.88	1419.79	74.93%	24.80%	-67.53	2-1
1975-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-17	1582.35	1528.46	62.80%	36.88%	+26.32	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1608.67	1535.42	54.84%	44.83%	-21.42	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-7	1587.25	1315.24	79.18%	20.59%	+18.59	4-2
1975-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1605.84	1672.96	45.70%	53.97%	+29.81	5-2
1975-11-09	@ New York Giants	W 21-13	1635.65	1421.88	73.13%	26.59%	+16.97	6-2
1975-11-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1652.62	1579.54	54.82%	44.85%	-21.41	6-3
1975-11-23	Oakland Raiders	L 23-26	1631.21	1646.53	53.14%	46.53%	-20.75	6-4
1975-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1610.46	1741.78	36.78%	62.90%	+14.18	7-4
1975-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1624.64	1397.91	74.57%	25.17%	+9.83	8-4
1975-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-31	1634.47	1601.33	49.08%	50.58%	-50.73	8-5
1975-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-26	1583.74	1355.28	82.14%	17.65%	-88.72	8-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1975-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1680.74	1792.09	29.70%	70.30%	-28.32	0-1
1975-12-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 28-31	1632.67	1674.27	38.70%	61.30%	-15.07	0-1
1975-12-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1661.46	1740.06	33.78%	66.22%	+25.79	1-0
1976-01-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-7	1687.25	1789.70	30.78%	69.22%	+85.23	2-0
1976-01-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1772.48	1835.50	41.03%	58.97%	-18.45	2-1
1975-12-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-23	1766.64	1654.57	70.39%	29.61%	+23.06	1-0
1976-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1789.70	1687.25	69.22%	30.78%	-85.23	1-1
1975-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1740.06	1661.46	66.22%	33.78%	-25.78	0-1
1975-12-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-28	1674.27	1632.67	61.30%	38.70%	+15.06	1-0
1976-01-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1689.33	1820.42	27.38%	72.62%	-15.08	1-1
1975-12-27	Baltimore Colts	W 28-10	1792.09	1680.74	70.30%	29.70%	+28.33	1-0
1976-01-04	Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1820.42	1689.33	72.62%	27.38%	+15.08	2-0
1976-01-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1835.50	1772.48	58.97%	41.03%	+18.45	3-0
1975-12-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-35	1654.57	1766.64	29.61%	70.39%	-23.06	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1975-11-23	11.02%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1253.32	35	Cincinnati Bengals	1653.99	23
2	1975-10-19	11.11%	Green Bay Packers	1368.74	19	@ Dallas Cowboys	1691.17	17
3	1975-12-07	13.00%	San Diego Chargers	1209.61	28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1500.95	20
4	1975-11-09	13.06%	San Francisco 49ers	1389.22	24	@ Los Angeles Rams	1679.69	23
5	1975-10-20	14.42%	New York Giants	1389.11	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1659.48	14
6	1975-12-21	17.65%	Philadelphia Eagles	1355.28	26	@ Washington Redskins	1583.74	3
7	1975-10-12	18.25%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1374.23	42	Oakland Raiders	1672.32	10
8	1975-12-14	19.26%	@ Detroit Lions	1453.04	17	Minnesota Vikings	1739.60	10
9	1975-11-23	20.91%	Baltimore Colts	1535.50	33	@ Miami Dolphins	1727.41	17
10	1975-12-07	23.67%	@ Chicago Bears	1246.43	25	Detroit Lions	1487.32	21
11	1975-10-05	24.80%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1419.79	26	Washington Redskins	1649.88	10
12	1975-11-09	24.86%	Baltimore Colts	1456.28	42	@ Buffalo Bills	1609.19	35
13	1975-11-10	26.49%	Kansas City Chiefs	1505.13	34	@ Dallas Cowboys	1643.15	31
14	1976-01-04 *	30.78%	Dallas Cowboys	1687.25	37	@ Los Angeles Rams	1789.70	7
15	1975-12-07	31.33%	New York Jets	1298.30	30	@ New England Patriots	1395.25	28
16	1975-12-14	31.38%	Houston Oilers	1584.78	27	@ Oakland Raiders	1681.34	26
17	1975-09-28	31.55%	Buffalo Bills	1556.62	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1651.79	21
18	1975-12-28 *	33.78%	Dallas Cowboys	1661.46	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1740.06	14
19	1975-11-16	34.61%	@ Houston Oilers	1594.28	20	Miami Dolphins	1742.08	19
20	1975-09-21	35.22%	New York Giants	1416.21	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1482.67	14
21	1975-10-26	35.37%	Baltimore Colts	1374.05	45	@ New York Jets	1439.36	28
22	1975-11-27	35.95%	Buffalo Bills	1566.06	32	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1626.94	14
23	1975-11-30	36.78%	@ Washington Redskins	1610.46	31	Minnesota Vikings	1741.78	30
24	1975-09-21	37.17%	Houston Oilers	1436.56	7	@ New England Patriots	1488.32	0
25	1975-11-02	37.23%	@ New Orleans Saints	1313.61	23	Atlanta Falcons	1441.59	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1975-10-12	103.88	@ Kansas City Chiefs	42	1374.23	18.25%	Oakland Raiders	10	1672.32	81.54%
2	1975-12-21	88.72	Philadelphia Eagles	26	1355.28	17.65%	@ Washington Redskins	3	1583.74	82.14%
3	1976-01-04 *	85.23	Dallas Cowboys	37	1687.25	30.78%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1789.70	69.22%
4	1975-11-23	71.04	Baltimore Colts	33	1535.50	20.91%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1727.41	78.85%
5	1975-12-14	70.21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	40	1327.76	38.59%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1445.65	61.08%
6	1975-11-23	69.27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	35	1253.32	11.02%	Cincinnati Bengals	23	1653.99	88.83%
7	1975-10-05	67.53	@ Philadelphia Eagles	26	1419.79	24.80%	Washington Redskins	10	1649.88	74.93%
8	1975-09-21	61.78	Baltimore Colts	35	1412.18	47.90%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1387.28	51.76%
9	1975-11-23	61.04	@ Green Bay Packers	40	1321.34	46.59%	New York Giants	14	1382.27	53.08%
10	1975-11-27	60.95	Buffalo Bills	32	1566.06	35.95%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1626.94	63.73%
11	1975-12-21	60.57	Chicago Bears	42	1267.65	45.95%	@ New Orleans Saints	17	1256.38	53.72%
12	1975-10-26	59.77	Baltimore Colts	45	1374.05	35.37%	@ New York Jets	28	1439.36	64.32%
13	1975-11-02	56.31	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1313.61	37.23%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1441.59	62.45%
14	1975-12-07	55.30	San Diego Chargers	28	1209.61	13.00%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	20	1500.95	86.83%
15	1975-10-06	53.47	Dallas Cowboys	36	1626.74	53.19%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1565.04	46.47%
16	1975-10-12	52.25	Atlanta Falcons	17	1433.36	37.74%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1480.90	61.94%
17	1975-10-05	50.76	San Francisco 49ers	20	1430.14	45.08%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	3	1424.98	54.59%
18	1975-12-13	50.74	@ Dallas Cowboys	31	1601.33	50.58%	Washington Redskins	10	1634.47	49.08%
19	1975-12-14	49.31	@ Atlanta Falcons	31	1388.07	53.07%	San Francisco 49ers	9	1403.87	46.59%
20	1975-10-05	49.28	@ New York Jets	36	1453.99	59.12%	New England Patriots	7	1426.99	40.55%
21	1975-10-19	48.73	Miami Dolphins	43	1648.96	66.77%	@ New York Jets	0	1488.09	32.93%
22	1975-12-20	48.45	Minnesota Vikings	35	1691.61	53.89%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1625.05	45.78%
23	1975-12-14	47.99	@ Detroit Lions	17	1453.04	19.26%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1739.60	80.52%
24	1975-12-07	47.41	@ St. Louis Cardinals	31	1565.99	43.48%	Dallas Cowboys	17	1648.74	56.19%
25	1975-10-12	47.30	Houston Oilers	40	1488.12	61.42%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1367.78	38.26%