1974 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1973

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Oilers

3.41 wins above expected

7 wins · 3.59 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Atlanta Falcons

3.28 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.28 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	3	1	.750	-	305	189	+116	9.35	+1.15
2	Houston Oilers	7	7	0	.500	3.5	236	282	-46	3.59	+3.41
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	7	0	.500	3.5	283	259	+24	8.52	-1.52
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	10	0	.286	6.5	251	344	-93	6.27	-2.27

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	3	.786	-	327	216	+111	10.99	+0.01
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	9	5	.643	2	264	244	+20	8.13	+0.87
3	New York Jets	7	7	.500	4	279	300	-21	5.57	+1.43
4	New England Patriots	7	7	.500	4	348	289	+59	6.09	+0.91
5	Baltimore Colts	2	12	.143	9	190	329	-139	4.27	-2.27

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	12	2	0	.857	-	355	228	+127	9.74	+2.26
2	Denver Broncos	7	6	1	.536	4.5	302	294	+8	7.54	-0.04
3	San Diego Chargers	5	9	0	.357	7	212	285	-73	4.00	+1.00
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	0	.357	7	233	293	-60	6.71	-1.71

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	4	.714	-	310	195	+115	9.93	+0.07
2	Detroit Lions	7	7	.500	3	256	270	-14	7.29	-0.29
3	Green Bay Packers	6	8	.429	4	210	206	+4	6.72	-0.72
4	Chicago Bears	4	10	.286	6	152	279	-127	4.95	-0.95

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Cardinals Division	10	4	.714	-	285	218	+67	7.71	+2.29
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	4	.714	-	320	196	+124	8.61	+1.39
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	6	.571	2	297	235	+62	8.89	-0.89
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	7	.500	3	242	217	+25	5.74	+1.26
5	New York Giants	2	12	.143	8	195	299	-104	5.07	-3.07

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	4	.714	-	263	181	+82	9.83	+0.17
2	San Francisco 49ers	6	8	.429	4	226	236	-10	5.70	+0.30
3	New Orleans Saints	5	9	.357	5	166	263	-97	4.50	+0.50
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	11	.214	7	111	271	-160	6.28	-3.28

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 28

Miami Dolphins 26

Dec 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 32

Buffalo Bills 14

Dec 22

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Oakland Raiders 13

Dec 29

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 30

St. Louis Cardinals 14

Dec 21

Los Angeles Rams 19

Washington Redskins 10

Dec 22

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 14

Los Angeles Rams 10

Dec 29

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Minnesota Vikings 6

Jan 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1719	11	10.99	+0.01	61.86%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1700	12	9.74	+2.26	96.30%	2	7	9	10	11	12	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1647	10	8.61	+1.39	86.95%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1645	10	9.93	+0.07	63.16%	2	7	9	10	11	12	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1644	10.5	9.35	+1.15	74.89%	2	6	8	9	11	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1627	10	9.83	+0.17	65.00%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1622	8	8.89	-0.89	41.09%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1544	7	8.52	-1.52	28.13%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1533	9	8.13	+0.87	79.32%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1521	10	7.71	+2.29	94.83%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1516	7.5	7.54	-0.04	49.74%	1	5	6	8	9	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1512	7	7.29	-0.29	55.67%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1477	7	6.09	+0.91	80.06%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1468	7	5.74	+1.26	84.45%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1465	6	5.70	+0.30	68.61%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1460	6	6.72	-0.72	46.21%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1458	5	6.71	-1.71	25.03%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1444	4	6.27	-2.27	16.62%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1443	7	5.57	+1.43	87.41%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1406	5	4.50	+0.50	73.65%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1402	3	6.28	-3.28	5.34%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1399	7	3.59	+3.41	99.06%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1355	5	4.00	+1.00	83.18%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1337	2	4.27	-2.27	14.76%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1337	2	5.07	-3.07	6.66%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1319	4	4.95	-0.95	41.48%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1-1 (1.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.55%	2.75%	3.02%	3.02%	1.37%	—	0.55%	11.26%
7–13	2.75%	4.40%	7.97%	2.20%	1.92%	0.55%	0.55%	20.33%
14–20	3.02%	7.97%	9.34%	6.04%	1.92%	1.65%	—	29.95%
21–27	3.02%	2.20%	6.04%	3.85%	4.12%	1.10%	—	20.33%
28–34	1.37%	1.92%	1.92%	4.12%	1.65%	0.27%	0.27%	11.54%
35–41	—	0.55%	1.65%	1.10%	0.27%	1.10%	0.27%	4.95%
42+	0.55%	0.55%	—	—	0.27%	0.27%	—	1.65%
Total	11.26%	20.33%	29.95%	20.33%	11.54%	4.95%	1.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.18	18.18	+0.00
SD	10.05	10.05	14.02
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	51	51	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	57.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.93	19.36	-11.43
SD	5.54	10.14	13.11
CV	0.70	0.52	—
Max	17	42	+7
Min	0	3	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	14.29%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.57	23.50	-9.93
SD	11.37	11.24	13.84
CV	0.84	0.48	—
Max	38	45	+15
Min	0	6	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.86	17.43	+1.43
SD	8.09	9.78	9.22
CV	0.43	0.56	—
Max	30	35	+20
Min	6	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.86	19.93	-9.07
SD	8.48	10.72	15.40
CV	0.78	0.54	—
Max	24	42	+14
Min	0	9	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	18.50	+1.71
SD	10.92	9.42	16.56
CV	0.54	0.51	—
Max	34	34	+27
Min	3	3	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	24.57	-6.64
SD	8.19	12.35	12.10
CV	0.46	0.50	—
Max	35	41	+13
Min	7	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	16.79	+4.43
SD	9.01	9.84	10.45
CV	0.42	0.59	—
Max	41	31	+24
Min	6	0	-8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	21.00	+0.57
SD	11.87	10.34	14.12
CV	0.55	0.49	—
Max	37	42	+23
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	57.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	19.29	-1.00
SD	7.06	7.44	9.00
CV	0.39	0.39	—
Max	34	35	+17
Min	6	7	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	14.71	+0.29
SD	8.24	10.89	15.31
CV	0.55	0.74	—
Max	34	36	+34
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	20.14	-3.29
SD	10.05	12.70	15.64
CV	0.60	0.63	—
Max	34	51	+17
Min	0	3	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.64	20.93	-4.29
SD	10.82	11.08	11.92
CV	0.65	0.53	—
Max	42	35	+10
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	57.14%
21–27	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	12.93	+5.86
SD	8.07	6.88	12.71
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	37	23	+24
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.36	15.43	+7.93
SD	8.97	10.32	11.47
CV	0.38	0.67	—
Max	42	34	+35
Min	9	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	42.86%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.14	13.93	+8.21
SD	12.15	6.97	13.68
CV	0.55	0.50	—
Max	51	24	+41
Min	7	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.86	20.64	+4.21
SD	7.65	11.10	13.94
CV	0.31	0.54	—
Max	42	41	+39
Min	14	0	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.86	18.79	-6.93
SD	6.29	10.98	13.46
CV	0.53	0.58	—
Max	21	35	+14
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.93	21.36	-7.43
SD	8.04	7.38	9.74
CV	0.58	0.35	—
Max	33	35	+8
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	35.71%	—	14.29%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	21.43	-1.50
SD	9.89	7.88	10.12
CV	0.50	0.37	—
Max	45	38	+13
Min	0	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.36	16.29	+9.07
SD	10.32	8.58	8.06
CV	0.41	0.53	—
Max	41	27	+22
Min	7	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.29	15.50	+1.79
SD	12.10	8.67	15.88
CV	0.70	0.56	—
Max	36	31	+28
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	14.29%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	13.50	+8.29
SD	10.15	9.58	13.44
CV	0.47	0.71	—
Max	35	35	+30
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.14	20.36	-5.21
SD	9.12	9.89	12.53
CV	0.60	0.49	—
Max	36	35	+17
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	16.86	-0.71
SD	10.57	12.16	17.17
CV	0.65	0.72	—
Max	35	37	+34
Min	0	0	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	15.57	+4.79
SD	10.00	8.60	10.27
CV	0.49	0.55	—
Max	34	28	+25
Min	0	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.86	14.00	+8.86
SD	7.94	9.01	14.28
CV	0.35	0.64	—
Max	42	28	+42
Min	10	0	-11

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.65	+0.4
Allowed	0.56	-0.5
Differential	0.89	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	7	3.59	+3.41
2	St. Louis Cardinals	10	7.71	+2.29
3	Oakland Raiders	12	9.74	+2.26
4	New York Jets	7	5.57	+1.43
5	Washington Redskins	10	8.61	+1.39

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Atlanta Falcons	3	6.28	-3.28
2	New York Giants	2	5.07	-3.07
3	Baltimore Colts	2	4.27	-2.27
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	6.27	-2.27
5	Kansas City Chiefs	5	6.71	-1.71

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	4	Oct 27 – Nov 17	1 in 606
2	New York Jets	6	Nov 10 – Dec 15	1 in 503
3	St. Louis Cardinals	7	Sep 15 – Oct 27	1 in 158
4	New England Patriots	5	Sep 15 – Oct 13	1 in 97
5	Oakland Raiders	9	Sep 22 – Nov 17	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	4	Sep 23 – Oct 13	1 in 102
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	Oct 20 – Dec 7	1 in 84
3	New York Jets	6	Sep 29 – Nov 3	1 in 27
4	New York Giants	6	Nov 10 – Dec 15	1 in 25
5	New England Patriots	3	Nov 3 – Nov 17	1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	58.46%	31.76%	9.00%	0.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	34.93%	46.56%	16.79%	1.72%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.37%	19.80%	59.29%	14.54%
Houston Oilers	0.25%	1.88%	14.92%	82.95%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	84.97%	12.89%	1.81%	0.29%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	12.14%	55.16%	21.56%	8.70%	2.45%
New England Patriots	1.85%	18.13%	37.19%	28.19%	14.64%
New York Jets	0.86%	10.53%	27.03%	36.49%	25.09%
Baltimore Colts	0.18%	3.29%	12.41%	26.33%	57.79%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	74.30%	19.60%	5.60%	0.51%
Denver Broncos	16.58%	45.46%	31.51%	6.45%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.76%	31.30%	47.53%	12.41%
San Diego Chargers	0.36%	3.64%	15.36%	80.64%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	77.30%	17.11%	4.77%	0.82%
Detroit Lions	13.29%	42.70%	31.64%	12.38%
Green Bay Packers	8.16%	31.05%	39.55%	21.24%
Chicago Bears	1.25%	9.15%	24.04%	65.56%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	41.85%	30.12%	18.41%	7.47%	2.15%
Washington Redskins	36.17%	31.55%	20.85%	8.73%	2.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	17.57%	25.88%	31.28%	17.78%	7.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.06%	8.11%	18.02%	36.74%	34.08%
New York Giants	1.35%	4.34%	11.44%	29.28%	53.60%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	86.01%	11.11%	2.42%	0.46%
Atlanta Falcons	7.74%	43.82%	32.13%	16.32%
San Francisco 49ers	4.80%	31.41%	37.13%	26.67%
New Orleans Saints	1.45%	13.67%	28.32%	56.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Miami Dolphins	50.29%	24.46%	12.66%	5.92%	3.34%	1.83%	0.80%	0.41%	0.19%	0.08%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	19.17%	25.44%	21.81%	12.33%	8.15%	5.90%	3.42%	1.93%	1.13%	0.48%	0.17%	0.06%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.23%	20.50%	20.50%	14.34%	10.96%	8.26%	4.78%	3.01%	2.07%	0.80%	0.35%	0.16%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.12%	11.74%	15.34%	16.33%	15.30%	12.92%	8.21%	5.85%	4.05%	1.72%	0.91%	0.38%	0.12%
Buffalo Bills	4.89%	6.70%	10.13%	16.68%	16.98%	13.92%	10.43%	7.62%	5.27%	4.02%	1.89%	1.03%	0.44%
Denver Broncos	2.16%	5.45%	8.34%	12.29%	14.27%	15.49%	12.67%	10.90%	8.59%	4.82%	2.94%	1.51%	0.57%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.98%	2.51%	4.38%	7.52%	9.81%	12.65%	14.26%	14.97%	13.78%	8.51%	5.87%	3.26%	1.46%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.56%	1.74%	3.41%	5.74%	7.23%	9.27%	13.04%	15.27%	16.51%	11.13%	8.09%	5.20%	2.82%
New England Patriots	0.43%	0.89%	2.00%	4.91%	6.89%	8.91%	13.35%	14.24%	13.19%	14.25%	9.31%	6.89%	4.74%
New York Jets	0.14%	0.41%	0.95%	2.58%	4.37%	6.13%	9.70%	11.62%	13.54%	17.23%	12.99%	10.93%	9.41%
Baltimore Colts	0.02%	0.09%	0.22%	0.68%	1.24%	2.06%	4.04%	5.72%	7.95%	13.94%	16.42%	21.34%	26.28%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.05%	0.14%	0.44%	0.89%	1.66%	3.14%	4.89%	7.70%	12.51%	22.02%	23.75%	22.80%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	0.02%	0.11%	0.25%	0.56%	0.99%	2.16%	3.57%	6.00%	10.51%	19.01%	25.49%	31.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	32.20%	24.13%	18.14%	9.50%	6.70%	3.83%	2.41%	1.49%	0.83%	0.43%	0.24%	0.09%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	30.49%	24.32%	19.45%	9.78%	6.02%	4.21%	2.38%	1.53%	0.94%	0.48%	0.26%	0.12%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	14.39%	16.60%	15.95%	15.20%	10.78%	8.41%	6.74%	4.48%	3.04%	2.20%	1.23%	0.67%	0.30%
Washington Redskins	11.40%	14.56%	14.89%	15.64%	11.86%	9.34%	7.66%	5.38%	3.75%	2.63%	1.55%	0.89%	0.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.82%	7.38%	9.48%	12.81%	11.71%	11.86%	11.29%	9.12%	7.33%	5.82%	3.91%	2.74%	1.75%
Detroit Lions	2.97%	4.83%	7.31%	11.04%	14.33%	12.99%	11.62%	10.79%	8.36%	6.29%	4.84%	3.03%	1.60%
Green Bay Packers	1.71%	3.04%	4.95%	8.09%	10.69%	10.98%	11.52%	12.50%	10.80%	9.01%	7.86%	5.74%	3.10%
Atlanta Falcons	0.86%	1.90%	3.37%	5.65%	8.88%	12.14%	11.85%	12.04%	12.09%	10.26%	8.91%	7.00%	5.06%
San Francisco 49ers	0.43%	1.05%	2.19%	3.81%	6.45%	8.49%	9.50%	10.88%	12.62%	12.09%	11.68%	11.48%	9.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.40%	1.17%	2.05%	3.89%	4.73%	6.31%	8.45%	9.56%	11.48%	13.82%	12.67%	12.29%	13.18%
Chicago Bears	0.11%	0.34%	0.77%	1.62%	3.03%	4.07%	5.91%	8.29%	9.99%	12.77%	17.28%	18.35%	17.45%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.44%	0.93%	1.93%	2.60%	3.84%	5.86%	7.24%	9.55%	12.71%	14.37%	17.65%	22.74%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.23%	0.52%	1.06%	2.22%	3.53%	4.82%	6.70%	9.21%	11.48%	15.20%	19.95%	25.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Miami Dolphins	33.83%	19.97%	13.29%	9.80%	6.48%	5.00%	3.26%	2.46%	1.69%	1.31%	0.91%	0.65%	0.40%	0.34%	0.21%	0.13%	0.10%	0.07%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Minnesota Vikings	13.45%	15.56%	12.32%	12.61%	9.26%	9.12%	5.80%	5.04%	3.89%	3.32%	2.38%	1.74%	1.42%	1.15%	0.87%	0.60%	0.46%	0.33%	0.25%	0.16%	0.12%	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	13.06%	14.64%	11.98%	12.37%	9.45%	9.54%	5.88%	5.26%	3.89%	3.27%	2.52%	2.06%	1.52%	1.18%	0.85%	0.73%	0.58%	0.41%	0.28%	0.21%	0.15%	0.08%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	11.53%	11.51%	13.41%	10.98%	10.99%	8.59%	6.93%	5.38%	4.67%	3.49%	3.15%	2.35%	1.91%	1.34%	1.10%	0.81%	0.60%	0.47%	0.29%	0.23%	0.12%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.09%	8.98%	10.59%	9.89%	9.93%	9.11%	7.46%	6.73%	5.63%	4.85%	3.96%	3.59%	2.61%	2.21%	1.58%	1.41%	1.02%	0.87%	0.47%	0.40%	0.23%	0.16%	0.10%	0.09%	0.03%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	5.18%	7.54%	7.54%	8.87%	8.37%	8.42%	7.75%	7.58%	6.14%	5.50%	4.92%	4.04%	3.72%	3.17%	2.57%	1.93%	1.72%	1.35%	1.20%	0.77%	0.68%	0.42%	0.28%	0.20%	0.12%	0.04%
Washington Redskins	4.20%	5.65%	6.84%	7.32%	7.92%	7.73%	7.98%	7.50%	6.76%	6.01%	5.48%	4.44%	4.44%	3.61%	3.13%	2.43%	2.16%	1.63%	1.43%	1.03%	0.81%	0.56%	0.45%	0.26%	0.15%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.67%	4.39%	6.43%	6.20%	7.92%	7.59%	8.17%	7.67%	7.55%	6.97%	6.08%	5.79%	4.29%	3.94%	3.02%	2.81%	1.91%	1.95%	1.06%	0.96%	0.58%	0.45%	0.27%	0.20%	0.10%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	2.40%	2.90%	3.85%	4.21%	5.54%	6.00%	7.80%	8.11%	7.80%	7.91%	6.56%	6.66%	5.17%	4.93%	4.00%	3.55%	2.76%	2.52%	2.10%	1.68%	1.13%	0.91%	0.63%	0.43%	0.27%	0.15%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.29%	2.55%	3.09%	4.13%	4.63%	5.41%	6.24%	6.51%	6.26%	6.30%	6.52%	5.85%	5.90%	5.48%	5.13%	4.35%	4.08%	3.46%	3.21%	2.39%	2.28%	1.63%	1.36%	0.94%	0.73%	0.29%
Denver Broncos	1.02%	1.60%	2.84%	3.14%	4.37%	4.68%	5.98%	6.22%	6.73%	7.03%	6.88%	7.44%	6.00%	6.31%	5.10%	5.39%	3.94%	4.29%	2.66%	2.63%	1.71%	1.57%	0.95%	0.79%	0.47%	0.26%
Detroit Lions	0.73%	1.54%	2.10%	2.69%	3.45%	4.10%	5.14%	5.85%	6.65%	7.11%	6.69%	6.73%	6.29%	5.94%	5.92%	5.17%	4.84%	3.90%	3.67%	2.90%	2.79%	1.95%	1.65%	1.03%	0.79%	0.37%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.41%	0.62%	1.28%	1.43%	2.21%	2.46%	3.72%	3.90%	4.61%	5.10%	5.89%	6.48%	6.57%	7.04%	6.50%	7.39%	5.99%	6.71%	4.65%	4.72%	3.27%	3.22%	2.18%	1.78%	1.09%	0.78%
Green Bay Packers	0.35%	0.84%	1.21%	1.70%	2.26%	2.82%	3.63%	4.31%	5.03%	5.54%	5.73%	5.77%	6.10%	6.07%	6.47%	5.94%	6.16%	5.12%	4.87%	4.50%	4.38%	3.33%	3.03%	2.27%	1.60%	0.98%
Atlanta Falcons	0.19%	0.40%	0.69%	1.00%	1.39%	1.87%	2.39%	3.09%	3.84%	4.79%	5.34%	6.49%	5.73%	6.45%	6.47%	6.40%	6.49%	6.00%	5.73%	5.20%	5.14%	3.98%	3.96%	2.86%	2.56%	1.55%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.22%	0.34%	0.79%	1.04%	1.69%	1.87%	2.79%	2.95%	3.73%	3.67%	4.71%	4.78%	6.23%	6.11%	6.45%	7.49%	6.42%	7.92%	5.72%	6.21%	4.40%	4.68%	3.23%	2.96%	2.01%	1.57%
New England Patriots	0.14%	0.26%	0.49%	0.56%	1.04%	1.23%	2.27%	2.57%	3.33%	3.62%	4.31%	4.87%	5.84%	6.37%	6.39%	7.15%	6.09%	6.91%	6.52%	6.87%	5.11%	5.19%	3.86%	3.83%	2.84%	2.32%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.23%	0.34%	0.54%	0.86%	1.23%	1.69%	2.04%	2.84%	3.23%	4.03%	4.38%	4.92%	4.78%	5.77%	5.79%	6.67%	6.31%	6.44%	6.34%	6.56%	5.79%	6.02%	5.16%	4.70%	3.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.07%	0.19%	0.34%	0.65%	0.82%	1.14%	1.62%	2.04%	2.37%	2.72%	3.38%	3.51%	4.43%	4.65%	5.33%	5.06%	6.58%	6.07%	7.14%	6.50%	7.07%	6.25%	6.45%	5.61%	6.06%	3.93%
New York Jets	0.04%	0.10%	0.20%	0.27%	0.49%	0.60%	1.18%	1.50%	2.03%	2.47%	2.93%	3.50%	4.10%	5.15%	5.24%	6.22%	6.00%	7.13%	7.33%	8.22%	6.49%	6.92%	6.06%	5.79%	5.18%	4.87%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.04%	0.10%	0.18%	0.27%	0.41%	0.61%	0.92%	1.22%	1.64%	1.95%	2.39%	2.97%	3.29%	4.26%	4.35%	5.67%	5.27%	6.97%	6.89%	9.11%	8.17%	9.49%	8.12%	8.56%	7.14%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.07%	0.12%	0.21%	0.33%	0.53%	0.74%	1.04%	1.33%	1.50%	2.05%	2.06%	3.20%	3.26%	4.19%	3.81%	5.66%	5.20%	7.10%	6.34%	8.18%	7.59%	9.47%	8.46%	10.47%	7.07%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.17%	0.27%	0.41%	0.58%	0.86%	1.15%	1.50%	1.92%	2.29%	2.58%	3.33%	3.65%	4.76%	4.85%	5.94%	6.54%	8.19%	8.15%	10.12%	10.08%	11.81%	10.64%
Baltimore Colts	<0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.11%	0.13%	0.28%	0.36%	0.55%	0.70%	0.98%	1.12%	1.78%	2.04%	2.63%	2.98%	3.82%	4.17%	5.70%	6.71%	7.25%	8.70%	9.47%	11.60%	12.64%	16.18%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.17%	0.24%	0.38%	0.53%	0.74%	0.89%	1.30%	1.57%	2.06%	2.63%	3.28%	3.96%	5.18%	6.23%	7.93%	10.43%	10.83%	13.00%	12.57%	15.92%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.11%	0.13%	0.22%	0.27%	0.43%	0.53%	0.88%	1.03%	1.42%	1.85%	2.26%	3.12%	4.06%	5.33%	6.32%	9.72%	9.98%	14.46%	15.22%	22.55%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	50.29%	24.21%	10.48%	7.97%	7.06%
Oakland Raiders	19.17%	26.81%	28.31%	6.74%	18.96%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.23%	21.15%	23.08%	11.98%	29.56%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.12%	11.94%	15.88%	15.86%	49.21%
Buffalo Bills	4.89%	4.50%	2.76%	23.93%	63.93%
Denver Broncos	2.16%	5.67%	8.75%	11.83%	71.59%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.98%	2.63%	5.14%	6.87%	84.37%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.56%	1.88%	3.93%	5.14%	88.50%
New England Patriots	0.43%	0.70%	0.71%	5.66%	92.50%
New York Jets	0.14%	0.35%	0.38%	2.77%	96.37%
Baltimore Colts	0.02%	0.07%	0.09%	0.72%	99.10%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.06%	0.29%	0.35%	99.29%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.21%	0.20%	99.55%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	32.20%	24.84%	20.27%	7.34%	15.35%
Los Angeles Rams	30.49%	25.90%	29.62%	2.75%	11.24%
Dallas Cowboys	14.39%	15.94%	11.52%	18.74%	39.41%
Washington Redskins	11.40%	14.04%	10.72%	18.79%	45.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.82%	6.85%	5.90%	15.04%	67.38%
Detroit Lions	2.97%	4.40%	5.92%	12.04%	74.68%
Green Bay Packers	1.71%	2.72%	3.73%	8.87%	82.97%
Atlanta Falcons	0.86%	1.98%	4.90%	4.96%	87.31%
San Francisco 49ers	0.43%	1.11%	3.25%	3.31%	91.89%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.40%	1.16%	1.50%	3.96%	92.98%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.45%	0.76%	1.87%	96.78%
Chicago Bears	0.11%	0.35%	0.79%	1.50%	97.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.07%	0.27%	1.11%	0.83%	97.71%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+9.34%

Clear Edge

54.40%0.55%45.05%

Elo Value

Home Edge

25 Elo

0.039 points per Elo point

032.5580

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.52 points

Lean Home

-8+1.28+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers, 5th of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

12.6%

Favored

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.88 · Elevated: 1.88 to 2.57 · High Variance: 2.57 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.35 · Close: 3.35 to 4.53 · Off Target: 4.53 to 5.9 · Well Off Target: 5.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.62 · As Expected: 1.62 to 2.7 · More Than Expected: 2.7 to 4.32 · Far More Than Expected: 4.32 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.64 wins

As Expected

01.714

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.81

03.948

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

99.06%

Houston Oilers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

5.34%

Atlanta Falcons

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 26

As Expected

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 8

As Expected

02.28

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.10

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

91%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%20%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.93

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.67

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

32%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.22 · Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.93

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.85

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.059

Within Noise

00.1110.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	92.94%	58.76%	39.31%	24.69%
Oakland Raiders	81.04%	46.97%	27.90%	16.78%
Minnesota Vikings	84.65%	48.90%	28.38%	13.30%
Los Angeles Rams	88.76%	54.69%	27.88%	12.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	70.44%	39.66%	17.54%	9.35%
Washington Redskins	54.96%	29.54%	16.41%	7.70%
Dallas Cowboys	60.59%	31.05%	15.96%	6.94%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.79%	20.87%	6.36%	2.54%
Buffalo Bills	36.07%	13.28%	3.82%	1.50%
St. Louis Cardinals	32.62%	11.95%	4.42%	1.39%
Denver Broncos	28.41%	9.48%	2.73%	1.02%
Detroit Lions	25.32%	9.08%	3.19%	0.99%
Green Bay Packers	17.03%	5.10%	1.43%	0.36%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.63%	4.21%	0.97%	0.34%
San Francisco 49ers	8.11%	2.68%	0.76%	0.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.02%	2.07%	0.58%	0.17%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	11.50%	3.19%	0.63%	0.16%
New England Patriots	7.50%	2.26%	0.50%	0.16%
Atlanta Falcons	12.69%	3.37%	0.71%	0.14%
New York Jets	3.63%	0.94%	0.18%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	2.29%	0.65%	0.14%	0.03%
New York Giants	3.22%	0.49%	0.08%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	2.74%	0.43%	0.07%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.45%	0.11%	0.02%	<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	0.71%	0.11%	0.02%	<0.01%
Baltimore Colts	0.90%	0.17%	0.03%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			26.7%0.24%	32.2%0.06%	14.3%0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.01%				11.9%0.11%	14.3%0.47%
Buffalo Bills			43.5%9.00%	56.9%1.55%	53.9%1.63%	68.2%0.07%	61.9%0.90%				28.0%6.71%	31.5%16.18%	80.0%0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	73.3%0.24%	56.5%9.00%			55.7%6.40%		64.2%3.65%	27.1%13.61%	63.7%2.19%	66.7%1.01%	26.3%14.54%		78.4%0.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	67.8%0.06%	43.1%1.55%			38.7%1.46%		50.7%0.99%	15.3%2.43%	50.3%0.39%	48.9%0.19%	16.6%4.41%		64.5%0.03%
Denver Broncos	85.7%0.01%	46.1%1.63%	44.3%6.40%	61.3%1.46%		48.3%0.06%		21.5%9.58%	53.9%0.27%	60.0%0.10%		30.2%8.89%
Houston Oilers	40.0%<0.01%	31.8%0.07%			51.7%0.06%		16.7%0.02%	17.8%0.07%	45.8%0.02%	83.3%<0.01%	11.4%0.18%		66.7%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	75.0%0.01%	38.1%0.90%	35.8%3.65%	49.3%0.99%		83.3%0.02%		16.5%4.99%	46.1%0.15%	55.9%0.06%		23.0%4.86%
Miami Dolphins			72.9%13.61%	84.7%2.43%	78.5%9.58%	82.2%0.07%	83.5%4.99%				54.5%40.69%	59.4%21.38%	91.7%0.19%
New England Patriots			36.3%2.19%	49.7%0.39%	46.1%0.27%	54.2%0.02%	53.9%0.15%				22.1%0.94%	24.0%3.53%	50.0%<0.01%
New York Jets			33.3%1.01%	51.1%0.19%	40.0%0.10%	16.7%<0.01%	44.1%0.06%				13.6%0.43%	20.8%1.83%	100.0%<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	88.1%0.11%	72.0%6.71%	73.7%14.54%	83.4%4.41%		88.6%0.18%		45.5%40.69%	77.9%0.94%	86.4%0.43%		60.3%13.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	85.7%0.47%	68.5%16.18%			69.8%8.89%		77.0%4.86%	40.6%21.38%	76.0%3.53%	79.2%1.83%	39.7%13.01%		86.8%0.29%
San Diego Chargers		20.0%0.03%	21.6%0.15%	35.5%0.03%		33.3%<0.01%		8.3%0.19%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		13.2%0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		64.2%0.16%	23.3%2.02%	35.1%1.44%	41.9%0.94%		17.8%4.56%		67.8%0.11%	43.0%0.29%		36.3%1.33%	22.1%1.85%
Chicago Bears	35.8%0.16%		12.7%0.46%			11.8%1.36%		37.0%0.03%	53.8%0.01%	29.3%0.04%	24.7%0.08%	24.2%0.23%	14.4%0.38%
Dallas Cowboys	76.7%2.02%	87.3%0.46%		67.6%5.16%	73.5%3.27%	45.5%19.96%	46.3%28.10%	70.6%0.37%			69.1%1.25%
Detroit Lions	64.9%1.44%		32.4%5.16%			29.9%10.78%		64.5%0.28%	74.6%0.14%	53.0%0.30%	58.9%0.84%	46.7%2.20%	31.0%4.21%
Green Bay Packers	58.1%0.94%		26.5%3.27%			24.3%7.85%		58.9%0.20%	73.6%0.09%	49.0%0.21%	47.4%0.64%	43.0%1.38%	24.6%2.45%
Los Angeles Rams		88.2%1.36%	54.5%19.96%	70.1%10.78%	75.7%7.85%		49.4%8.58%		86.8%1.81%	74.4%3.82%		69.1%14.79%	51.6%19.80%
Minnesota Vikings	82.2%4.56%		53.7%28.10%			50.6%8.58%		83.0%0.79%	87.4%0.93%	75.4%2.10%	76.7%3.08%	67.1%11.74%	50.2%24.76%
New Orleans Saints		63.0%0.03%	29.4%0.37%	35.5%0.28%	41.1%0.20%		17.0%0.79%		68.2%0.02%	38.8%0.05%		40.3%0.22%	25.2%0.34%
New York Giants	32.2%0.11%	46.2%0.01%		25.4%0.14%	26.4%0.09%	13.2%1.81%	12.6%0.93%	31.8%0.02%			23.2%0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	57.0%0.29%	70.7%0.04%		47.0%0.30%	51.0%0.21%	25.6%3.82%	24.6%2.10%	61.2%0.05%			49.0%0.21%
San Francisco 49ers		75.3%0.08%	30.9%1.25%	41.1%0.84%	52.6%0.64%		23.3%3.08%		76.8%0.10%	51.0%0.21%		44.1%0.74%	27.5%1.17%
St. Louis Cardinals	63.7%1.33%	75.8%0.23%		53.3%2.20%	57.0%1.38%	30.9%14.79%	32.9%11.74%	59.7%0.22%			55.9%0.74%
Washington Redskins	77.9%1.85%	85.6%0.38%		69.0%4.21%	75.4%2.45%	48.4%19.80%	49.8%24.76%	74.8%0.34%			72.5%1.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			40.0%<0.01%	13.4%0.08%	50.0%<0.01%		11.9%0.06%	27.3%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	75.0%<0.01%		51.4%0.63%	65.7%0.07%	52.9%0.45%	100.0%<0.01%	50.5%0.21%	24.3%6.84%	60.9%0.06%	59.1%0.02%	25.4%3.76%	34.5%1.22%	50.0%0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	100.0%<0.01%	48.6%0.63%		66.4%0.15%	53.5%0.71%	60.0%<0.01%	66.2%0.26%	24.4%9.10%	54.1%0.07%	70.4%0.03%	29.2%6.44%	35.5%3.46%	66.7%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	100.0%<0.01%	34.3%0.07%	33.6%0.15%		38.0%0.08%		56.1%0.04%	14.9%1.57%	40.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	19.4%0.87%	24.1%0.40%
Denver Broncos		47.1%0.45%	46.5%0.71%	62.0%0.08%		66.7%<0.01%	56.8%0.08%	22.4%3.90%	59.2%0.07%	56.2%0.03%	25.3%2.56%	32.2%1.60%	0.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers		0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%			13.2%0.07%			25.0%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.0%<0.01%	49.5%0.21%	33.8%0.26%	43.9%0.04%	43.2%0.08%			17.9%1.68%	53.2%0.05%	44.4%<0.01%	18.3%1.12%	25.5%0.75%
Miami Dolphins	86.6%0.08%	75.7%6.84%	75.6%9.10%	85.1%1.57%	77.6%3.90%	86.8%0.07%	82.1%1.68%		82.0%1.09%	86.1%0.45%	54.1%16.49%	63.9%17.45%	86.7%0.04%
New England Patriots	50.0%<0.01%	39.1%0.06%	45.9%0.07%	60.0%0.01%	40.8%0.07%		46.8%0.05%	18.0%1.09%		25.0%<0.01%	18.6%0.76%	29.9%0.14%
New York Jets		40.9%0.02%	29.6%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	43.8%0.03%		55.6%<0.01%	13.9%0.45%	75.0%<0.01%		15.9%0.33%	38.7%0.06%
Oakland Raiders	88.1%0.06%	74.6%3.76%	70.8%6.44%	80.6%0.87%	74.7%2.56%	75.0%0.02%	81.7%1.12%	45.9%16.49%	81.4%0.76%	84.1%0.33%		58.1%14.54%	81.8%0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.7%0.01%	65.5%1.22%	64.5%3.46%	75.9%0.40%	67.8%1.60%	66.7%<0.01%	74.5%0.75%	36.1%17.45%	70.1%0.14%	61.3%0.06%	41.9%14.54%		81.8%0.02%
San Diego Chargers		50.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%			13.3%0.04%			18.2%0.02%	18.2%0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		50.0%<0.01%	20.9%0.55%	29.6%0.11%	38.1%0.04%	20.7%0.75%	19.2%1.08%	0.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	58.3%0.01%	30.7%0.18%	17.3%0.62%
Chicago Bears	50.0%<0.01%		24.0%0.07%	46.2%0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	12.9%0.12%	11.3%0.14%			50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	27.8%0.02%	8.2%0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	79.1%0.55%	76.0%0.07%		65.3%1.42%	74.2%0.78%	49.5%11.11%	44.2%6.80%	74.8%0.11%	83.8%0.07%	74.6%0.35%	69.5%0.47%	62.1%2.35%	47.0%6.94%
Detroit Lions	70.4%0.11%	53.8%0.01%	34.7%1.42%		52.0%0.12%	34.2%2.50%	31.5%3.03%	66.7%0.01%	65.0%0.02%	58.0%0.08%	61.4%0.07%	53.8%0.47%	29.9%1.21%
Green Bay Packers	61.9%0.04%	80.0%<0.01%	25.8%0.78%	48.0%0.12%		27.9%1.31%	23.8%1.75%	71.4%0.01%	66.7%0.01%	38.6%0.04%	51.4%0.04%	39.8%0.27%	27.1%0.71%
Los Angeles Rams	79.3%0.75%	87.1%0.12%	50.5%11.11%	65.8%2.50%	72.1%1.31%		46.4%24.46%	84.0%0.12%	81.1%0.11%	74.1%0.47%	72.8%0.56%	62.8%3.26%	46.9%9.92%
Minnesota Vikings	80.8%1.08%	88.7%0.14%	55.8%6.80%	68.5%3.03%	76.2%1.75%	53.6%24.46%		83.4%0.21%	89.0%0.15%	77.7%0.63%	75.5%0.87%	69.9%2.93%	51.7%6.84%
New Orleans Saints	100.0%<0.01%		25.2%0.11%	33.3%0.01%	28.6%0.01%	16.0%0.12%	16.6%0.21%		66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	34.6%0.03%	21.3%0.14%
New York Giants	12.5%<0.01%		16.2%0.07%	35.0%0.02%	33.3%0.01%	18.9%0.11%	11.0%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	32.3%0.03%	11.8%0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	82.4%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	25.4%0.35%	42.0%0.08%	61.4%0.04%	25.9%0.47%	22.3%0.63%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		43.8%0.03%	35.6%0.10%	29.1%0.33%
San Francisco 49ers	41.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	30.5%0.47%	38.6%0.07%	48.6%0.04%	27.2%0.56%	24.5%0.87%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	56.2%0.03%		45.8%0.12%	24.3%0.49%
St. Louis Cardinals	69.3%0.18%	72.2%0.02%	37.9%2.35%	46.2%0.47%	60.2%0.27%	37.2%3.26%	30.1%2.93%	65.4%0.03%	67.7%0.03%	64.4%0.10%	54.2%0.12%		34.2%2.20%
Washington Redskins	82.7%0.62%	91.8%0.06%	53.0%6.94%	70.1%1.21%	72.9%0.71%	53.1%9.92%	48.3%6.84%	78.7%0.14%	88.2%0.07%	70.9%0.33%	75.7%0.49%	65.8%2.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	70.0%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	40.1%0.59%	50.0%0.12%	45.8%0.05%	36.7%1.05%	36.8%1.07%	75.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	65.4%0.03%	65.8%0.04%	52.3%0.17%	37.1%0.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	68.8%0.05%	75.0%<0.01%	39.1%1.04%	51.3%0.20%	61.4%0.10%	40.1%1.77%	36.1%1.83%	83.3%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	56.2%0.03%	59.6%0.05%	51.2%0.29%	36.5%0.99%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	83.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	28.4%0.08%	37.5%0.02%	20.0%0.01%	23.8%0.18%	21.2%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.03%	20.2%0.10%
Denver Broncos	70.8%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	37.6%0.43%	61.3%0.08%	54.2%0.05%	38.5%0.78%	31.4%0.78%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	53.8%0.03%	69.2%0.01%	46.7%0.12%	31.9%0.42%
Houston Oilers	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%						16.7%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	32.9%0.15%	41.5%0.04%	72.7%0.01%	32.4%0.28%	37.2%0.25%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	53.8%0.01%	33.3%0.04%	30.1%0.18%
Miami Dolphins	85.5%0.28%	96.3%0.03%	62.6%6.27%	74.5%1.33%	81.4%0.54%	62.8%10.92%	59.2%11.17%	85.9%0.06%	90.3%0.03%	75.3%0.22%	78.6%0.29%	73.8%1.75%	59.8%6.41%
New England Patriots	50.0%<0.01%		33.3%0.08%	63.2%0.02%	54.5%0.01%	31.3%0.13%	28.6%0.13%	0.0%<0.01%		40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.02%	23.3%0.09%
New York Jets	50.0%<0.01%		23.7%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.05%	21.8%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		60.0%<0.01%	23.1%0.03%
Oakland Raiders	80.2%0.21%	91.3%0.02%	60.5%4.49%	72.2%0.84%	77.3%0.41%	60.6%7.67%	56.5%8.00%	75.8%0.03%	87.0%0.02%	75.7%0.17%	74.0%0.20%	72.2%1.20%	56.1%4.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	80.4%0.10%	75.0%<0.01%	52.9%2.79%	66.2%0.54%	73.7%0.25%	52.3%5.01%	50.3%4.88%	86.4%0.02%	76.9%0.01%	65.2%0.09%	73.6%0.14%	68.6%0.79%	49.7%2.91%
San Diego Chargers			40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%						0.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons														100.0%<0.01%	30.0%0.03%	31.2%0.05%	16.7%<0.01%	29.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	14.5%0.28%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	19.8%0.21%	19.6%0.10%
Chicago Bears															50.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	3.7%0.03%			8.7%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														100.0%<0.01%	59.9%0.59%	60.9%1.04%	71.6%0.08%	62.4%0.43%	100.0%<0.01%	67.1%0.15%	37.4%6.27%	66.7%0.08%	76.3%0.04%	39.5%4.49%	47.1%2.79%	60.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions														100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.12%	48.7%0.20%	62.5%0.02%	38.8%0.08%		58.5%0.04%	25.5%1.33%	36.8%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	27.8%0.84%	33.8%0.54%	100.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers															54.2%0.05%	38.6%0.10%	80.0%0.01%	45.8%0.05%		27.3%0.01%	18.6%0.54%	45.5%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	22.7%0.41%	26.3%0.25%	100.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams														100.0%<0.01%	63.3%1.05%	59.9%1.77%	76.2%0.18%	61.5%0.78%	66.7%<0.01%	67.6%0.28%	37.2%10.92%	68.7%0.13%	68.8%0.05%	39.4%7.67%	47.7%5.01%	80.0%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings														100.0%<0.01%	63.2%1.07%	63.9%1.83%	78.8%0.19%	68.6%0.78%	100.0%<0.01%	62.8%0.25%	40.8%11.17%	71.4%0.13%	78.2%0.06%	43.5%8.00%	49.7%4.88%	85.7%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints															25.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	14.1%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	24.2%0.03%	13.6%0.02%
New York Giants															40.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	9.7%0.03%			13.0%0.02%	23.1%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles															34.6%0.03%	43.8%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	46.2%0.03%		40.0%<0.01%	24.7%0.22%	60.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	24.3%0.17%	34.8%0.09%
San Francisco 49ers															34.2%0.04%	40.4%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%		46.2%0.01%	21.4%0.29%	100.0%<0.01%		26.0%0.20%	26.4%0.14%
St. Louis Cardinals														100.0%<0.01%	47.7%0.17%	48.8%0.29%	60.0%0.03%	53.3%0.12%		66.7%0.04%	26.2%1.75%	47.8%0.02%	40.0%<0.01%	27.8%1.20%	31.4%0.79%
Washington Redskins														71.4%<0.01%	62.9%0.65%	63.5%0.99%	79.8%0.10%	68.1%0.42%	83.3%<0.01%	69.9%0.18%	40.2%6.41%	76.7%0.09%	76.9%0.03%	43.9%4.62%	50.3%2.91%	100.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders	52.07%	34.83%	20.93%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	47.93%	30.22%	18.97%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	62.40%	31.59%	14.43%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.71%	27.76%	14.39%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	51.94%	30.23%	13.03%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Washington Redskins	48.05%	25.22%	11.56%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Cardinals	37.60%	12.95%	3.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	30.29%	7.18%	2.76%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills				30.3%100.00%
Miami Dolphins			47.9%100.00%
Oakland Raiders		52.1%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams				51.9%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings			62.4%100.00%
St. Louis Cardinals		37.6%100.00%
Washington Redskins	48.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		22.7%14.43%	24.7%15.86%
Miami Dolphins	77.3%14.43%			56.9%33.50%
Oakland Raiders	75.3%15.86%			63.2%36.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers		43.1%33.50%	36.8%36.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams		52.3%32.38%	68.0%19.57%
Minnesota Vikings	47.7%32.38%			53.8%30.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	32.0%19.57%			37.1%18.03%
Washington Redskins		46.2%30.02%	62.9%18.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills	38.6%2.14%	36.2%2.30%	51.2%0.90%	35.0%1.85%
Miami Dolphins	63.2%9.21%	59.6%9.47%	74.5%3.98%	60.0%7.56%
Oakland Raiders	59.5%10.48%	57.5%11.12%	73.0%4.44%	57.6%8.79%
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.5%8.41%	49.3%8.71%	64.8%3.62%	48.6%7.03%
Los Angeles Rams					61.4%2.14%	36.8%9.21%	40.5%10.48%	48.5%8.41%
Minnesota Vikings					63.8%2.30%	40.4%9.47%	42.5%11.12%	50.7%8.71%
St. Louis Cardinals					48.8%0.90%	25.5%3.98%	27.0%4.44%	35.2%3.62%
Washington Redskins					65.0%1.85%	40.0%7.56%	42.4%8.79%	51.4%7.03%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Oakland Raiders 20.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

65.69%

Win Prob

63.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

30.55%

Win Prob

57.48%

Miami Dolphins 18.97% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

63.08%

Win Prob

56.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

30.67%

Win Prob

63.22%

Minnesota Vikings 14.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.40%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

51.08%

Win Prob

53.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

32.76%

Win Prob

42.52%

Pittsburgh Steelers 14.39% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

51.98%

Win Prob

43.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

30.09%

Win Prob

51.48%

Los Angeles Rams 13.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.97%

Win Prob

52.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

32.61%

Win Prob

40.53%

Washington Redskins 11.56% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.04%

Win Prob

46.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

32.27%

Win Prob

42.45%

St. Louis Cardinals 3.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.60%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

51.68%

Win Prob

37.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

32.42%

Win Prob

35.15%

Buffalo Bills 2.76% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

54.45%

Win Prob

24.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

30.11%

Win Prob

36.19%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1974-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-24	1528.18	1619.16	41.34%	57.99%	-20.49	0-1
1974-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-16	1507.69	1465.80	60.21%	39.13%	-14.89	0-2
1974-09-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-14	1492.80	1394.76	58.97%	40.36%	-5.96	0-3
1974-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 14-7	1486.84	1429.01	53.29%	46.03%	+12.32	1-3
1974-10-13	Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1499.16	1401.78	67.53%	31.86%	+5.59	2-3
1974-10-20	New Orleans Saints	L 3-13	1504.75	1371.55	71.86%	27.58%	-22.93	2-4
1974-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1481.82	1602.30	29.06%	70.36%	-7.78	2-5
1974-11-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-42	1474.04	1686.78	19.45%	80.09%	-11.64	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-21	1462.40	1629.54	23.87%	75.61%	-11.06	2-7
1974-11-17	Baltimore Colts	L 7-17	1451.34	1345.14	68.63%	30.77%	-21.90	2-8
1974-11-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-27	1429.44	1432.64	44.54%	54.78%	-23.41	2-9
1974-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-30	1406.03	1620.61	25.75%	73.70%	-12.50	2-10
1974-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1393.53	1623.94	17.91%	81.66%	-6.53	2-11
1974-12-15	Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1387.00	1475.37	41.71%	57.62%	+15.39	3-11
1974-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-30	1418.35	1586.72	23.74%	75.74%	-13.16	0-1
1974-09-22	Green Bay Packers	L 13-20	1405.19	1453.05	47.46%	51.86%	-12.70	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-30	1392.49	1413.87	41.97%	57.35%	-18.99	0-3
1974-10-06	@ New England Patriots	L 3-42	1373.50	1475.23	31.32%	68.07%	-19.80	0-4
1974-10-13	Buffalo Bills	L 14-27	1353.70	1555.12	27.22%	72.22%	-9.94	0-5
1974-10-20	@ New York Jets	W 35-20	1343.76	1395.50	37.79%	61.55%	+24.07	1-5
1974-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1367.83	1683.00	11.84%	87.85%	-3.78	1-6
1974-11-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-24	1364.05	1582.43	25.34%	74.12%	-8.11	1-7
1974-11-10	Denver Broncos	L 6-17	1355.94	1515.88	32.18%	67.21%	-10.80	1-8
1974-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-7	1345.14	1451.34	30.77%	68.63%	+21.89	2-8
1974-11-24	New England Patriots	L 17-27	1367.03	1485.87	37.53%	61.82%	-12.01	2-9
1974-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-6	1355.02	1556.66	20.46%	79.06%	-5.07	2-10
1974-12-08	Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1349.95	1712.70	12.93%	86.74%	-1.30	2-11
1974-12-15	New York Jets	L 38-45	1348.65	1431.45	42.49%	56.84%	-11.38	2-12
1974-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 21-20	1532.86	1604.24	44.10%	55.22%	+5.58	1-0
1974-09-22	Miami Dolphins	L 16-24	1538.44	1670.77	35.73%	63.63%	-10.23	1-1
1974-09-29	New York Jets	W 16-12	1528.21	1426.28	68.10%	31.30%	+6.33	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1534.54	1473.01	53.82%	45.50%	+20.58	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-14	1555.12	1353.70	72.22%	27.22%	+9.94	4-1
1974-10-20	New England Patriots	W 30-28	1565.06	1516.41	61.13%	38.21%	+5.47	5-1
1974-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 16-6	1570.53	1401.89	75.77%	23.71%	+7.59	6-1
1974-11-03	@ New England Patriots	W 29-28	1578.12	1523.51	52.83%	46.49%	+4.70	7-1
1974-11-10	Houston Oilers	L 9-21	1582.82	1334.64	83.13%	16.46%	-29.01	7-2
1974-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-35	1553.81	1706.55	25.40%	74.06%	-6.81	7-3
1974-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 15-10	1547.00	1465.71	56.62%	42.70%	+9.66	8-3
1974-12-01	Baltimore Colts	W 6-0	1556.66	1355.02	79.06%	20.46%	+5.07	9-3
1974-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 10-20	1561.73	1410.34	66.12%	33.26%	-21.10	9-4
1974-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-19	1540.63	1619.38	34.22%	65.15%	-7.74	9-5
1974-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1375.34	1529.17	32.95%	66.43%	+18.96	1-0
1974-09-22	New York Jets	L 21-23	1394.30	1419.03	50.78%	48.53%	-7.26	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-11	1387.04	1643.55	15.82%	83.79%	-3.20	1-2
1974-10-06	New Orleans Saints	W 24-10	1383.84	1400.71	51.91%	47.40%	+17.94	2-2
1974-10-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1401.78	1499.16	31.86%	67.53%	-5.59	2-3
1974-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 10-9	1396.19	1475.74	42.94%	56.38%	+5.70	3-3
1974-10-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-16	1401.89	1570.53	23.71%	75.77%	-7.59	3-4
1974-11-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-17	1394.30	1632.28	23.28%	76.21%	-9.71	3-5
1974-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1384.59	1452.15	35.68%	63.68%	-14.90	3-6
1974-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-34	1369.69	1403.47	49.48%	49.83%	-29.16	3-7
1974-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1340.53	1519.66	22.64%	76.85%	-9.45	3-8
1974-12-01	New York Giants	W 16-13	1331.08	1370.30	48.70%	50.62%	+8.86	4-8
1974-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-28	1339.94	1310.42	49.22%	50.09%	-13.16	4-9
1974-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-42	1326.78	1638.73	12.03%	87.65%	-7.88	4-10
1974-09-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-7	1572.80	1525.47	60.95%	38.39%	+19.82	1-0
1974-09-22	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1592.62	1336.85	83.73%	15.87%	-14.61	1-1
1974-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-3	1578.01	1480.70	58.87%	40.46%	+17.37	2-1
1974-10-06	Washington Redskins	W 28-17	1595.38	1591.66	54.86%	44.46%	+14.92	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-24	1610.30	1476.15	63.87%	35.49%	+11.36	4-1
1974-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-30	1621.66	1653.23	40.55%	58.78%	-7.11	4-2
1974-10-27	Houston Oilers	L 21-34	1614.55	1288.85	88.48%	11.22%	-32.12	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1582.43	1364.05	74.12%	25.34%	+8.11	5-3
1974-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1590.54	1622.84	49.69%	49.62%	+13.28	6-3
1974-11-17	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-20	1603.82	1363.66	76.44%	23.05%	-31.78	6-4
1974-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-6	1572.04	1479.01	66.98%	32.41%	+17.05	7-4
1974-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-24	1589.09	1698.61	30.37%	69.04%	-14.09	7-5
1974-12-08	Detroit Lions	L 19-23	1575.00	1517.93	62.27%	37.08%	-12.58	7-6
1974-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1562.42	1626.39	36.16%	63.20%	-17.93	7-7
1974-09-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-33	1525.47	1572.80	38.39%	60.95%	-19.81	0-1
1974-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 20-7	1505.66	1321.73	77.34%	22.16%	+8.09	1-1
1974-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-29	1513.75	1476.45	50.34%	48.97%	-23.87	1-2
1974-10-06	Oakland Raiders	L 24-40	1489.88	1636.16	33.91%	65.46%	-13.73	1-3
1974-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-34	1476.15	1610.30	35.49%	63.87%	-11.36	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1464.79	1596.68	27.73%	71.70%	-5.62	1-5
1974-10-27	Denver Broncos	W 23-21	1459.17	1535.50	43.40%	55.92%	+7.99	2-5
1974-11-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 35-36	1467.16	1313.83	66.37%	33.01%	-6.70	2-6
1974-11-10	@ New England Patriots	W 21-14	1460.46	1518.81	36.91%	62.45%	+16.68	3-6
1974-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-26	1477.14	1609.57	35.72%	63.64%	-11.43	3-7
1974-11-24	Buffalo Bills	L 10-15	1465.71	1547.00	42.70%	56.62%	-9.66	3-8
1974-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 7-0	1456.05	1456.05	54.33%	44.99%	+12.04	4-8
1974-12-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-41	1468.09	1617.01	25.82%	73.64%	-12.80	4-9
1974-12-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-28	1455.29	1387.99	54.64%	44.68%	-11.04	4-10
1974-09-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-0	1619.16	1528.18	57.99%	41.34%	+20.50	1-0
1974-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1639.66	1400.54	76.33%	23.16%	-13.33	1-1
1974-09-29	New York Giants	L 6-14	1626.33	1405.98	80.78%	18.77%	-23.03	1-2
1974-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1603.30	1646.75	48.09%	51.22%	-6.88	1-3
1974-10-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-31	1596.42	1525.09	55.21%	44.11%	-9.66	1-4
1974-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-24	1586.76	1465.38	70.47%	28.95%	+7.76	2-4
1974-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 21-7	1594.52	1384.73	73.17%	26.28%	+9.95	3-4
1974-11-03	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-14	1604.47	1548.72	62.09%	37.25%	+6.53	4-4
1974-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-14	1611.00	1408.52	79.14%	20.38%	+5.05	5-4
1974-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1616.05	1608.72	46.04%	53.28%	-12.31	5-5
1974-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 10-0	1603.74	1395.43	73.00%	26.45%	+8.46	6-5
1974-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1612.20	1629.81	51.80%	47.51%	+4.81	7-5
1974-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-17	1617.01	1468.09	73.64%	25.82%	+12.80	8-5
1974-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-27	1629.81	1692.28	36.36%	63.00%	-7.36	8-6
1974-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1535.89	1624.69	41.65%	57.68%	-11.15	0-1
1974-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 35-35	1524.74	1599.88	43.57%	55.75%	+0.31	0-1
1974-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-30	1525.05	1571.40	38.52%	60.82%	-20.26	0-2
1974-10-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1504.79	1517.49	43.19%	56.13%	+9.82	1-2
1974-10-13	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1514.61	1382.78	71.70%	27.73%	+11.23	2-2
1974-10-20	San Diego Chargers	W 27-7	1525.84	1333.62	78.16%	21.36%	+9.66	3-2
1974-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-23	1535.50	1459.17	55.92%	43.40%	-7.99	3-3
1974-11-03	Oakland Raiders	L 17-28	1527.51	1668.07	34.65%	64.72%	-11.63	3-4
1974-11-10	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-6	1515.88	1355.94	67.21%	32.18%	+10.80	4-4
1974-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-42	1526.68	1460.90	63.44%	35.92%	-18.11	4-5
1974-11-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1508.57	1694.50	21.97%	77.54%	+13.54	5-5
1974-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1522.11	1529.11	44.00%	55.32%	+11.18	6-5
1974-12-08	Houston Oilers	W 37-14	1533.29	1401.45	71.70%	27.73%	+13.46	7-5
1974-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-17	1546.75	1323.59	74.64%	24.82%	-31.04	7-6
1974-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1529.17	1375.34	66.43%	32.95%	-18.97	0-1
1974-09-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-7	1510.20	1639.90	36.08%	63.28%	-3.65	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-21	1506.55	1465.75	50.84%	48.47%	-7.27	0-3
1974-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1499.28	1627.21	28.19%	71.24%	-4.94	0-4
1974-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1494.34	1438.54	62.10%	37.25%	+7.54	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1501.88	1659.90	24.83%	74.64%	+15.06	2-4
1974-10-27	Green Bay Packers	W 19-17	1516.94	1470.05	60.89%	38.45%	+5.50	3-4
1974-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 19-14	1522.44	1405.39	69.95%	29.46%	+6.67	4-4
1974-11-10	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-35	1529.11	1679.70	25.63%	73.82%	-12.17	4-5
1974-11-17	New York Giants	W 20-19	1516.94	1377.41	72.58%	26.86%	+2.72	5-5
1974-11-24	Chicago Bears	W 34-17	1519.66	1340.53	76.85%	22.64%	+9.45	6-5
1974-11-28	Denver Broncos	L 27-31	1529.11	1522.11	55.32%	44.00%	-11.18	6-6
1974-12-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-19	1517.93	1575.00	37.08%	62.27%	+12.57	7-6
1974-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-28	1530.50	1448.76	56.69%	42.64%	-18.99	7-7
1974-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-32	1465.58	1627.37	31.95%	67.44%	-12.53	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-13	1453.05	1405.19	51.86%	47.46%	+12.70	1-1
1974-09-29	Detroit Lions	W 21-19	1465.75	1506.55	48.47%	50.84%	+7.26	2-1
1974-10-06	Buffalo Bills	L 7-27	1473.01	1534.54	45.50%	53.82%	-20.58	2-2
1974-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-6	1452.43	1632.15	29.75%	69.65%	+23.31	3-2
1974-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1475.74	1396.19	56.38%	42.94%	-5.69	3-3
1974-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-19	1470.05	1516.94	38.45%	60.89%	-5.51	3-4
1974-11-03	Washington Redskins	L 6-17	1464.54	1587.92	36.92%	62.44%	-12.39	3-5
1974-11-10	Chicago Bears	W 20-3	1452.15	1384.59	63.68%	35.68%	+14.89	4-5
1974-11-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-7	1467.04	1650.11	22.25%	77.25%	+26.98	5-5
1974-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 34-0	1494.02	1337.88	74.43%	25.03%	+14.78	6-5
1974-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-36	1508.80	1404.32	59.86%	39.48%	-28.36	6-6
1974-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-7	1480.44	1444.01	50.22%	49.10%	-5.07	6-7
1974-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-10	1475.37	1387.00	57.62%	41.71%	-15.40	6-8
1974-09-15	San Diego Chargers	W 21-14	1308.07	1350.51	48.23%	51.08%	+13.66	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1321.73	1505.66	22.16%	77.34%	-8.08	1-1
1974-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-17	1313.65	1508.54	27.97%	71.46%	-8.96	1-2
1974-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1304.69	1577.82	19.87%	79.66%	-4.92	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-51	1299.77	1653.62	9.71%	90.02%	-6.28	1-4
1974-10-20	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-31	1293.49	1534.75	22.94%	76.55%	-4.64	1-5
1974-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-21	1288.85	1614.55	11.22%	88.48%	+32.12	2-5
1974-11-03	@ New York Jets	W 27-22	1320.97	1365.48	38.77%	60.57%	+13.67	3-5
1974-11-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-9	1334.64	1582.82	16.46%	83.13%	+29.02	4-5
1974-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-3	1363.66	1603.82	23.05%	76.44%	+31.77	5-5
1974-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-10	1395.43	1603.74	26.45%	73.00%	-8.46	5-6
1974-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1386.97	1633.58	16.59%	83.00%	+14.48	6-6
1974-12-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-37	1401.45	1533.29	27.73%	71.70%	-13.46	6-7
1974-12-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-24	1387.99	1455.29	44.68%	54.64%	+11.04	7-7
1974-09-15	New York Jets	W 24-16	1514.76	1428.55	66.11%	33.27%	+9.53	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-27	1524.29	1598.66	34.79%	64.57%	-15.75	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-7	1508.54	1313.65	71.46%	27.97%	+8.95	2-1
1974-10-06	Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1517.49	1504.79	56.13%	43.19%	-9.82	2-2
1974-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-34	1507.67	1582.74	43.58%	55.74%	-13.94	2-3
1974-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-9	1493.73	1677.50	22.18%	77.32%	-5.50	2-4
1974-10-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-14	1488.23	1323.96	67.75%	31.64%	+10.13	3-4
1974-11-03	New York Giants	L 27-33	1498.36	1374.78	70.73%	28.69%	-17.48	3-5
1974-11-10	San Diego Chargers	L 7-14	1480.88	1320.53	74.89%	24.58%	-19.98	3-6
1974-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 42-34	1460.90	1526.68	35.92%	63.44%	+18.11	4-6
1974-11-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-33	1479.01	1572.04	32.41%	66.98%	-17.04	4-7
1974-12-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-13	1461.97	1550.93	32.92%	66.46%	+13.41	5-7
1974-12-08	Oakland Raiders	L 6-7	1475.38	1689.67	25.79%	73.67%	-2.61	5-8
1974-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 15-35	1472.77	1630.47	32.46%	66.92%	-14.70	5-9
1974-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1624.69	1535.89	57.68%	41.65%	+11.15	1-0
1974-09-22	New Orleans Saints	W 24-0	1635.84	1403.55	81.82%	17.75%	+8.79	2-0
1974-09-29	@ New England Patriots	L 14-20	1644.63	1457.80	70.51%	28.91%	-17.42	2-1
1974-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1627.21	1499.28	71.24%	28.19%	+4.94	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-17	1632.15	1452.43	69.65%	29.75%	-23.31	3-2
1974-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-14	1608.84	1431.00	76.72%	22.77%	+11.05	4-2
1974-10-27	@ New York Jets	W 20-13	1619.89	1371.43	77.28%	22.22%	+5.95	5-2
1974-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-13	1625.84	1412.22	73.59%	25.86%	+3.70	6-2
1974-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-0	1629.54	1462.40	75.61%	23.87%	+11.07	7-2
1974-11-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-20	1640.61	1390.58	77.44%	22.07%	-28.15	7-3
1974-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1612.46	1623.13	52.80%	46.51%	+8.15	8-3
1974-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-7	1620.61	1406.03	73.70%	25.75%	+12.50	9-3
1974-12-09	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1633.11	1625.00	55.48%	43.84%	-13.73	9-4
1974-12-15	Buffalo Bills	W 19-14	1619.38	1540.63	65.15%	34.22%	+7.75	10-4
1974-09-15	@ New England Patriots	L 24-34	1696.32	1417.65	80.17%	19.37%	-25.55	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-16	1670.77	1538.44	63.63%	35.73%	+10.23	1-1
1974-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-21	1681.00	1351.46	84.39%	15.22%	+4.07	2-1
1974-10-07	New York Jets	W 21-17	1685.07	1419.95	84.45%	15.17%	+3.06	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1688.13	1576.74	60.81%	38.53%	-10.63	3-2
1974-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 9-3	1677.50	1493.73	77.32%	22.18%	+5.50	4-2
1974-10-27	Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1683.00	1367.83	87.85%	11.84%	+3.78	5-2
1974-11-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-7	1686.78	1474.04	80.09%	19.45%	+11.63	6-2
1974-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-0	1698.41	1398.72	82.01%	17.56%	+8.14	7-2
1974-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 35-28	1706.55	1553.81	74.06%	25.40%	+6.80	8-2
1974-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1713.35	1382.92	84.46%	15.16%	-14.74	8-3
1974-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1698.61	1589.09	69.04%	30.37%	+14.09	9-3
1974-12-08	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-16	1712.70	1349.95	86.74%	12.93%	+1.31	10-3
1974-12-15	New England Patriots	W 34-27	1714.01	1481.86	81.81%	17.77%	+4.75	11-3
1974-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 32-17	1627.37	1465.58	67.44%	31.95%	+12.53	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 7-6	1639.90	1510.20	63.28%	36.08%	+3.65	2-0
1974-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 11-7	1643.55	1387.04	83.79%	15.82%	+3.20	3-0
1974-10-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-21	1646.75	1603.30	51.22%	48.09%	+6.87	4-0
1974-10-13	Houston Oilers	W 51-10	1653.62	1299.77	90.02%	9.71%	+6.28	5-0
1974-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1659.90	1501.88	74.64%	24.83%	-15.06	5-1
1974-10-27	New England Patriots	L 14-17	1644.84	1510.94	71.94%	27.50%	-12.56	5-2
1974-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1632.28	1394.30	76.21%	23.28%	+9.71	6-2
1974-11-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-24	1641.99	1542.19	59.21%	40.12%	+8.12	7-2
1974-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1650.11	1467.04	77.25%	22.25%	-26.98	7-3
1974-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1623.13	1612.46	46.51%	52.80%	-8.15	7-4
1974-12-01	New Orleans Saints	W 29-9	1614.98	1406.15	79.74%	19.80%	+8.96	8-4
1974-12-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-10	1623.94	1393.53	81.66%	17.91%	+6.53	9-4
1974-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-15	1630.47	1472.77	66.92%	32.46%	+14.69	10-4
1974-09-15	Miami Dolphins	W 34-24	1417.65	1696.32	19.37%	80.17%	+25.55	1-0
1974-09-22	@ New York Giants	W 28-20	1443.20	1420.59	48.23%	51.09%	+14.60	2-0
1974-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1457.80	1644.63	28.91%	70.51%	+17.43	3-0
1974-10-06	Baltimore Colts	W 42-3	1475.23	1373.50	68.07%	31.32%	+19.80	4-0
1974-10-13	@ New York Jets	W 24-0	1495.03	1416.88	56.18%	43.14%	+21.38	5-0
1974-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-30	1516.41	1565.06	38.21%	61.13%	-5.47	5-1
1974-10-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1510.94	1644.84	27.50%	71.94%	+12.57	6-1
1974-11-03	Buffalo Bills	L 28-29	1523.51	1578.12	46.49%	52.83%	-4.70	6-2
1974-11-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1518.81	1460.46	62.45%	36.91%	-16.68	6-3
1974-11-17	New York Jets	L 16-21	1502.13	1366.65	72.12%	27.32%	-16.26	6-4
1974-11-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1485.87	1367.03	61.82%	37.53%	+12.01	7-4
1974-12-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-41	1497.88	1680.96	22.25%	77.25%	-8.72	7-5
1974-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1489.16	1619.10	36.04%	63.31%	-7.30	7-6
1974-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-34	1481.86	1714.01	17.77%	81.81%	-4.75	7-7
1974-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1413.30	1456.06	48.19%	51.13%	-9.75	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-24	1403.55	1635.84	17.75%	81.82%	-8.79	0-2
1974-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-13	1394.76	1492.80	40.36%	58.97%	+5.95	1-2
1974-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1400.71	1383.84	47.40%	51.91%	-17.93	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-33	1382.78	1514.61	27.73%	71.70%	-11.23	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-3	1371.55	1504.75	27.58%	71.86%	+22.92	2-4
1974-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-10	1394.47	1457.63	45.27%	54.05%	+10.92	3-4
1974-11-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1405.39	1522.44	29.46%	69.95%	-6.67	3-5
1974-11-10	Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1398.72	1698.41	17.56%	82.01%	-8.14	3-6
1974-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-7	1390.58	1640.61	22.07%	77.44%	+28.15	4-6
1974-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1418.73	1621.00	27.13%	72.31%	-12.58	4-7
1974-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-29	1406.15	1614.98	19.80%	79.74%	-8.96	4-8
1974-12-08	St. Louis Cardinals	W 14-0	1397.19	1537.51	34.68%	64.68%	+24.43	5-8
1974-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1421.62	1449.08	41.12%	58.21%	-15.57	5-9
1974-09-15	Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1426.26	1584.91	32.34%	67.05%	-5.67	0-1
1974-09-22	New England Patriots	L 20-28	1420.59	1443.20	51.09%	48.23%	-14.61	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-6	1405.98	1626.33	18.77%	80.78%	+23.03	1-2
1974-10-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-14	1429.01	1486.84	46.03%	53.29%	-12.32	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1416.69	1443.30	41.24%	58.09%	-22.08	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-24	1394.61	1587.37	21.30%	78.21%	-9.88	1-5
1974-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1384.73	1594.52	26.28%	73.17%	-9.95	1-6
1974-11-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-27	1374.78	1498.36	28.69%	70.73%	+17.48	2-6
1974-11-10	New York Jets	L 20-26	1392.26	1351.81	60.01%	39.33%	-14.85	2-7
1974-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-20	1377.41	1516.94	26.86%	72.58%	-2.72	2-8
1974-11-24	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-23	1374.69	1546.53	30.71%	68.69%	-4.39	2-9
1974-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1370.30	1331.08	50.62%	48.70%	-8.86	2-10
1974-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1361.44	1432.67	44.12%	55.20%	-16.10	2-11
1974-12-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-26	1345.34	1513.08	23.81%	75.67%	-8.34	2-12
1974-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-24	1428.55	1514.76	33.27%	66.11%	-9.52	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-21	1419.03	1394.30	48.53%	50.78%	+7.25	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-16	1426.28	1528.21	31.30%	68.10%	-6.33	1-2
1974-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1419.95	1685.07	15.17%	84.45%	-3.07	1-3
1974-10-13	New England Patriots	L 0-24	1416.88	1495.03	43.14%	56.18%	-21.38	1-4
1974-10-20	Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1395.50	1343.76	61.55%	37.79%	-24.07	1-5
1974-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1371.43	1619.89	22.22%	77.28%	-5.95	1-6
1974-11-03	Houston Oilers	L 22-27	1365.48	1320.97	60.57%	38.77%	-13.67	1-7
1974-11-10	@ New York Giants	W 26-20	1351.81	1392.26	39.33%	60.01%	+14.84	2-7
1974-11-17	@ New England Patriots	W 21-16	1366.65	1502.13	27.32%	72.12%	+16.27	3-7
1974-11-24	Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1382.92	1713.35	15.16%	84.46%	+14.73	4-7
1974-12-01	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1397.65	1323.11	64.60%	34.77%	+12.69	5-7
1974-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1410.34	1561.73	33.26%	66.12%	+21.11	6-7
1974-12-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 45-38	1431.45	1348.65	56.84%	42.49%	+11.37	7-7
1974-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-21	1604.24	1532.86	55.22%	44.10%	-5.58	0-1
1974-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-7	1598.66	1524.29	64.57%	34.79%	+15.75	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-0	1614.41	1599.57	47.11%	52.20%	+21.75	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 40-24	1636.16	1489.88	65.46%	33.91%	+13.73	3-1
1974-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 14-10	1649.89	1336.96	83.10%	16.49%	+3.34	4-1
1974-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1653.23	1621.66	58.78%	40.55%	+7.11	5-1
1974-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 35-24	1660.34	1419.95	76.46%	23.03%	+7.73	6-1
1974-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-17	1668.07	1527.51	64.72%	34.65%	+11.63	7-1
1974-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 35-13	1679.70	1529.11	73.82%	25.63%	+12.17	8-1
1974-11-17	San Diego Chargers	W 17-10	1691.87	1340.51	89.89%	9.84%	+2.63	9-1
1974-11-24	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1694.50	1508.57	77.54%	21.97%	-13.54	9-2
1974-12-01	New England Patriots	W 41-26	1680.96	1497.88	77.25%	22.25%	+8.71	10-2
1974-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 7-6	1689.67	1475.38	73.67%	25.79%	+2.61	11-2
1974-12-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-23	1692.28	1629.81	63.00%	36.36%	+7.36	12-2
1974-09-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-7	1408.49	1449.31	39.28%	60.06%	-7.95	0-1
1974-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1400.54	1639.66	23.16%	76.33%	+13.33	1-1
1974-09-29	Baltimore Colts	W 30-10	1413.87	1392.49	57.35%	41.97%	+18.99	2-1
1974-10-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-7	1432.86	1347.39	57.21%	42.11%	+10.44	3-1
1974-10-13	New York Giants	W 35-7	1443.30	1416.69	58.09%	41.24%	+22.08	4-1
1974-10-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-31	1465.38	1586.76	28.95%	70.47%	-7.75	4-2
1974-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-14	1457.63	1394.47	54.05%	45.27%	-10.92	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1446.71	1610.08	24.26%	75.21%	-12.76	4-4
1974-11-10	Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1433.95	1600.32	31.38%	68.02%	-8.41	4-5
1974-11-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-13	1425.54	1534.07	38.92%	60.42%	-12.46	4-6
1974-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-26	1413.08	1621.04	19.88%	79.66%	-8.76	4-7
1974-12-01	Green Bay Packers	W 36-14	1404.32	1508.80	39.48%	59.86%	+28.35	5-7
1974-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 20-7	1432.67	1361.44	55.20%	44.12%	+16.09	6-7
1974-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 28-17	1448.76	1530.50	42.64%	56.69%	+19.00	7-7
1974-09-15	Baltimore Colts	W 30-0	1586.72	1418.35	75.74%	23.74%	+13.16	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	T 35-35	1599.88	1524.74	55.75%	43.57%	-0.31	1-0
1974-09-29	Oakland Raiders	L 0-17	1599.57	1614.41	52.20%	47.11%	-21.75	1-1
1974-10-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-7	1577.82	1304.69	79.66%	19.87%	+4.92	2-1
1974-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-24	1582.74	1507.67	55.74%	43.58%	+13.94	3-1
1974-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-16	1596.68	1464.79	71.70%	27.73%	+5.62	4-1
1974-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1602.30	1481.82	70.36%	29.06%	+7.78	5-1
1974-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-0	1610.08	1446.71	75.21%	24.26%	+12.76	6-1
1974-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1622.84	1590.54	49.62%	49.69%	-13.27	6-2
1974-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-16	1609.57	1477.14	63.64%	35.72%	+11.43	7-2
1974-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-7	1621.00	1418.73	72.31%	27.13%	+12.58	8-2
1974-12-01	Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1633.58	1386.97	83.00%	16.59%	-14.48	8-3
1974-12-08	@ New England Patriots	W 21-17	1619.10	1489.16	63.31%	36.04%	+7.29	9-3
1974-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1626.39	1562.42	63.20%	36.16%	+17.94	10-3
1974-09-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-21	1350.51	1308.07	51.08%	48.23%	-13.66	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1336.85	1592.62	15.87%	83.73%	+14.61	1-1
1974-09-29	Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1351.46	1681.00	15.22%	84.39%	-4.07	1-2
1974-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-13	1347.39	1432.86	42.11%	57.21%	-10.43	1-3
1974-10-13	Oakland Raiders	L 10-14	1336.96	1649.89	16.49%	83.10%	-3.34	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-27	1333.62	1525.84	21.36%	78.16%	-9.66	1-5
1974-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1323.96	1488.23	31.64%	67.75%	-10.13	1-6
1974-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 36-35	1313.83	1467.16	33.01%	66.37%	+6.70	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-7	1320.53	1480.88	24.58%	74.89%	+19.98	3-6
1974-11-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1340.51	1691.87	9.84%	89.89%	-2.63	3-7
1974-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-34	1337.88	1494.02	25.03%	74.43%	-14.77	3-8
1974-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1323.11	1397.65	34.77%	64.60%	-12.69	3-9
1974-12-08	Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1310.42	1339.94	50.09%	49.22%	+13.17	4-9
1974-12-15	Denver Broncos	W 17-0	1323.59	1546.75	24.82%	74.64%	+31.03	5-9
1974-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1456.06	1413.30	51.13%	48.19%	+9.74	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1465.80	1507.69	39.13%	60.21%	+14.90	2-0
1974-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-21	1480.70	1578.01	40.46%	58.87%	-17.38	2-1
1974-10-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 9-34	1463.32	1500.31	49.02%	50.29%	-24.78	2-2
1974-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1438.54	1494.34	37.25%	62.10%	-7.54	2-3
1974-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1431.00	1608.84	22.77%	76.72%	-11.05	2-4
1974-10-27	Oakland Raiders	L 24-35	1419.95	1660.34	23.03%	76.46%	-7.73	2-5
1974-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-15	1412.22	1625.84	25.86%	73.59%	-3.70	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-20	1408.52	1611.00	20.38%	79.14%	-5.05	2-7
1974-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-0	1403.47	1369.69	49.83%	49.48%	+29.17	3-7
1974-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-0	1432.64	1429.44	54.78%	44.54%	+23.41	4-7
1974-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-7	1456.05	1456.05	44.99%	54.33%	-12.04	4-8
1974-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 7-6	1444.01	1480.44	49.10%	50.22%	+5.07	5-8
1974-12-15	New Orleans Saints	W 35-21	1449.08	1421.62	58.21%	41.12%	+15.57	6-8
1974-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-3	1449.31	1408.49	60.06%	39.28%	+7.96	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1457.27	1590.58	27.57%	71.87%	+19.18	2-0
1974-09-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-7	1476.45	1513.75	48.97%	50.34%	+23.86	3-0
1974-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-9	1500.31	1463.32	50.29%	49.02%	+24.78	4-0
1974-10-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-28	1525.09	1596.42	44.11%	55.21%	+9.66	5-0
1974-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1534.75	1293.49	76.55%	22.94%	+4.65	6-0
1974-10-27	Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1539.40	1597.25	46.02%	53.29%	+9.32	7-0
1974-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1548.72	1604.47	37.25%	62.09%	-6.53	7-1
1974-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-28	1542.19	1641.99	40.12%	59.21%	-8.12	7-2
1974-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-3	1534.07	1425.54	60.42%	38.92%	+12.46	8-2
1974-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 23-21	1546.53	1374.69	68.69%	30.71%	+4.40	9-2
1974-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1550.93	1461.97	66.46%	32.92%	-13.42	9-3
1974-12-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-14	1537.51	1397.19	64.68%	34.68%	-24.43	9-4
1974-12-15	New York Giants	W 26-14	1513.08	1345.34	75.67%	23.81%	+8.35	10-4
1974-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1584.91	1426.26	67.05%	32.34%	+5.67	1-0
1974-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1590.58	1457.27	71.87%	27.57%	-19.18	1-1
1974-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 30-3	1571.40	1525.05	60.82%	38.52%	+20.26	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-28	1591.66	1595.38	44.46%	54.86%	-14.92	2-2
1974-10-13	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1576.74	1688.13	38.53%	60.81%	+10.63	3-2
1974-10-20	New York Giants	W 24-3	1587.37	1394.61	78.21%	21.30%	+9.88	4-2
1974-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1597.25	1539.40	53.29%	46.02%	-9.33	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-6	1587.92	1464.54	62.44%	36.92%	+12.40	5-3
1974-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1600.32	1433.95	68.02%	31.38%	+8.40	6-3
1974-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-21	1608.72	1616.05	53.28%	46.04%	+12.32	7-3
1974-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1621.04	1413.08	79.66%	19.88%	+8.77	8-3
1974-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-24	1629.81	1612.20	47.51%	51.80%	-4.81	8-4
1974-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1625.00	1633.11	43.84%	55.48%	+13.73	9-4
1974-12-15	Chicago Bears	W 42-0	1638.73	1326.78	87.65%	12.03%	+7.87	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1974-12-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-32	1532.89	1644.33	30.39%	69.61%	-12.95	0-1
1974-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 19-10	1627.13	1646.60	51.88%	48.12%	+14.49	1-0
1974-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-14	1641.62	1656.77	43.18%	56.82%	-8.67	1-1
1974-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-28	1718.76	1699.64	48.07%	51.93%	-6.82	0-1
1974-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-14	1645.16	1521.43	71.09%	28.91%	+11.61	1-0
1974-12-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 14-10	1656.77	1641.62	56.82%	43.18%	+8.67	2-0
1975-01-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-16	1665.44	1677.77	48.23%	51.77%	-15.31	2-1
1974-12-21	Miami Dolphins	W 28-26	1699.64	1718.76	51.93%	48.07%	+6.83	1-0
1974-12-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1706.47	1657.27	61.55%	38.45%	-20.50	1-1
1974-12-22	Buffalo Bills	W 32-14	1644.33	1532.89	69.61%	30.39%	+12.94	1-0
1974-12-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-13	1657.27	1706.47	38.45%	61.55%	+20.50	2-0
1975-01-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-6	1677.77	1665.44	51.77%	48.23%	+15.31	3-0
1974-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-30	1521.43	1645.16	28.91%	71.09%	-11.61	0-1
1974-12-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-19	1646.60	1627.13	48.12%	51.88%	-14.49	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1974-10-27	11.22%	Houston Oilers	1288.85	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1614.55	21
2	1974-11-24	15.16%	@ New York Jets	1382.92	17	Miami Dolphins	1713.35	14
3	1974-09-22	15.87%	San Diego Chargers	1336.85	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1592.62	17
4	1974-11-10	16.46%	Houston Oilers	1334.64	21	@ Buffalo Bills	1582.82	9
5	1974-12-01	16.59%	Houston Oilers	1386.97	13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1633.58	10
6	1974-09-29	18.77%	New York Giants	1405.98	14	@ Dallas Cowboys	1626.33	6
7	1974-09-15	19.37%	@ New England Patriots	1417.65	34	Miami Dolphins	1696.32	24
8	1974-11-24	21.97%	Denver Broncos	1508.57	20	@ Oakland Raiders	1694.50	17
9	1974-11-17	22.07%	@ New Orleans Saints	1390.58	20	Los Angeles Rams	1640.61	7
10	1974-11-17	22.25%	Green Bay Packers	1467.04	19	@ Minnesota Vikings	1650.11	7
11	1974-11-17	23.05%	@ Houston Oilers	1363.66	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1603.82	3
12	1974-09-23	23.16%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1400.54	13	Dallas Cowboys	1639.66	10
13	1974-11-10	24.58%	San Diego Chargers	1320.53	14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1480.88	7
14	1974-12-15	24.82%	@ San Diego Chargers	1323.59	17	Denver Broncos	1546.75	0
15	1974-10-20	24.83%	Detroit Lions	1501.88	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1659.90	16
16	1974-11-17	27.32%	New York Jets	1366.65	21	@ New England Patriots	1502.13	16
17	1974-10-27	27.50%	New England Patriots	1510.94	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1644.84	14
18	1974-09-22	27.57%	St. Louis Cardinals	1457.27	17	@ Washington Redskins	1590.58	10
19	1974-10-20	27.58%	New Orleans Saints	1371.55	13	@ Atlanta Falcons	1504.75	3
20	1974-11-03	28.69%	New York Giants	1374.78	33	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1498.36	27
21	1974-09-29	28.91%	@ New England Patriots	1457.80	20	Los Angeles Rams	1644.63	14
22	1974-10-13	29.75%	@ Green Bay Packers	1452.43	17	Los Angeles Rams	1632.15	6
23	1974-11-17	30.77%	Baltimore Colts	1345.14	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1451.34	7
24	1974-12-01	32.92%	Kansas City Chiefs	1461.97	17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1550.93	13
25	1974-09-15	32.95%	@ Chicago Bears	1375.34	17	Detroit Lions	1529.17	9

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1974-10-27	32.12	Houston Oilers	34	1288.85	11.22%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	21	1614.55	88.48%
2	1974-11-17	31.78	@ Houston Oilers	20	1363.66	23.05%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1603.82	76.44%
3	1974-12-15	31.04	@ San Diego Chargers	17	1323.59	24.82%	Denver Broncos	0	1546.75	74.64%
4	1974-11-17	29.17	San Francisco 49ers	34	1403.47	49.83%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1369.69	49.48%
5	1974-11-10	29.02	Houston Oilers	21	1334.64	16.46%	@ Buffalo Bills	9	1582.82	83.13%
6	1974-12-01	28.36	@ Philadelphia Eagles	36	1404.32	39.48%	Green Bay Packers	14	1508.80	59.86%
7	1974-11-17	28.15	@ New Orleans Saints	20	1390.58	22.07%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1640.61	77.44%
8	1974-11-17	26.98	Green Bay Packers	19	1467.04	22.25%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1650.11	77.25%
9	1974-09-15	25.55	@ New England Patriots	34	1417.65	19.37%	Miami Dolphins	24	1696.32	80.17%
10	1974-10-06	24.78	St. Louis Cardinals	34	1500.31	50.29%	@ San Francisco 49ers	9	1463.32	49.02%
11	1974-12-08	24.43	@ New Orleans Saints	14	1397.19	34.68%	St. Louis Cardinals	0	1537.51	64.68%
12	1974-10-20	24.07	Baltimore Colts	35	1343.76	37.79%	@ New York Jets	20	1395.50	61.55%
13	1974-09-29	23.87	@ St. Louis Cardinals	29	1476.45	48.97%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1513.75	50.34%
14	1974-11-24	23.41	@ San Francisco 49ers	27	1432.64	54.78%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1429.44	44.54%
15	1974-10-13	23.31	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1452.43	29.75%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1632.15	69.65%
16	1974-09-29	23.03	New York Giants	14	1405.98	18.77%	@ Dallas Cowboys	6	1626.33	80.78%
17	1974-10-20	22.93	New Orleans Saints	13	1371.55	27.58%	@ Atlanta Falcons	3	1504.75	71.86%
18	1974-10-13	22.08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	35	1443.30	58.09%	New York Giants	7	1416.69	41.24%
19	1974-11-17	21.90	Baltimore Colts	17	1345.14	30.77%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1451.34	68.63%
20	1974-09-29	21.75	Oakland Raiders	17	1614.41	47.11%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1599.57	52.20%
21	1974-10-13	21.38	New England Patriots	24	1495.03	56.18%	@ New York Jets	0	1416.88	43.14%
22	1974-12-08	21.11	@ New York Jets	20	1410.34	33.26%	Buffalo Bills	10	1561.73	66.12%
23	1974-10-06	20.58	Buffalo Bills	27	1534.54	53.82%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1473.01	45.50%
24	1974-09-15	20.50	Dallas Cowboys	24	1619.16	57.99%	@ Atlanta Falcons	0	1528.18	41.34%
25	1974-12-29 *	20.50	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1657.27	38.45%	@ Oakland Raiders	13	1706.47	61.55%