1973 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Miami Dolphins

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1972

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1969

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Rams

2.71 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.29 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

3.57 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.07 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	4	0	.714	-	286	231	+55	7.68	+2.32
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	-	347	210	+137	9.74	+0.26
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	5	2	.571	2	234	255	-21	6.97	+1.03
4	Houston Oilers	1	13	0	.071	9	199	447	-248	2.73	-1.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	2	.857	-	343	150	+193	10.87	+1.13
2	Buffalo Bills	9	5	.643	3	259	230	+29	6.62	+2.38
3	New England Patriots	5	9	.357	7	258	300	-42	4.92	+0.08
4	New York Jets	4	10	.286	8	240	306	-66	6.16	-2.16
5	Baltimore Colts	4	10	.286	8	226	341	-115	5.34	-1.34

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	9	4	1	.679	-	292	175	+117	9.05	+0.45
2	Kansas City Chiefs	7	5	2	.571	1.5	231	192	+39	8.15	-0.15
3	Denver Broncos	7	5	2	.571	1.5	354	296	+58	7.30	+0.70
4	San Diego Chargers	2	11	1	.179	7	188	386	-198	4.25	-1.75

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	0	.857	-	296	168	+128	9.37	+2.63
2	Detroit Lions	6	7	1	.464	5.5	271	247	+24	7.38	-0.88
3	Green Bay Packers	5	7	2	.429	6	202	259	-57	7.45	-1.45
4	Chicago Bears	3	11	0	.214	9	195	334	-139	5.65	-2.65

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	4	0	.714	-	382	203	+179	8.47	+1.53
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	-	325	198	+127	9.77	+0.23
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	8	1	.393	4.5	310	393	-83	4.04	+1.46
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	5.5	286	365	-79	5.34	-0.84
5	New York Giants	2	11	1	.179	7.5	226	362	-136	6.07	-3.57

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	2	.857	-	388	178	+210	9.29	+2.71
2	Atlanta Falcons	9	5	.643	3	318	224	+94	8.35	+0.65
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	7	262	319	-57	6.71	-1.71
4	New Orleans Saints	5	9	.357	7	163	312	-149	4.32	+0.68

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Dec 22

Miami Dolphins 34

Cincinnati Bengals 16

Dec 23

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 27

Oakland Raiders 10

Dec 30

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 27

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 22

Dallas Cowboys 27

Los Angeles Rams 16

Dec 23

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 27

Dallas Cowboys 10

Dec 30

Super Bowl

Miami Dolphins 24

Minnesota Vikings 7

Jan 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1754	12	10.87	+1.13	89.17%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1750	12	9.29	+2.71	98.82%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1721	10	8.47	+1.53	90.92%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1706	12	9.37	+2.63	98.31%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1686	10	9.74	+0.26	72.10%	3	7	8	10	11	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1664	10	7.68	+2.32	96.38%	1	5	6	7	9	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1663	10	9.77	+0.23	71.53%	2	7	9	10	11	12	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1657	9.5	9.05	+0.45	64.81%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1563	9	6.62	+2.38	96.68%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1562	8	7.30	+0.70	80.02%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1551	8	6.97	+1.03	85.66%	0	4	6	7	8	9	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1549	9	8.35	+0.65	78.85%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1548	6.5	7.38	-0.88	35.51%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1526	8	8.15	-0.15	62.96%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1445	6	7.45	-1.45	34.81%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1423	5	6.71	-1.71	28.90%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1410	4.5	5.34	-0.84	36.53%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1369	5	4.32	+0.68	80.98%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1368	4	6.16	-2.16	20.15%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1363	2.5	6.07	-3.57	1.52%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1359	4	5.34	-1.34	34.79%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1351	5	4.92	+0.08	69.54%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1345	5.5	4.04	+1.46	86.11%	0	1	3	4	5	6	12
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1281	3	5.65	-2.65	12.08%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1243	2.5	4.25	-1.75	16.69%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1145	1	2.73	-1.73	23.00%	0	0	2	2	3	5	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-3 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-2 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-
San Diego Chargers	0-2-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	-	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.82%	3.02%	1.65%	2.47%	1.37%	0.82%	10.16%
7–13	0.82%	5.49%	5.22%	4.12%	5.77%	1.37%	0.82%	23.63%
14–20	3.02%	5.22%	6.59%	3.57%	3.30%	1.37%	0.27%	23.35%
21–27	1.65%	4.12%	3.57%	4.95%	2.47%	0.55%	0.82%	18.13%
28–34	2.47%	5.77%	3.30%	2.47%	—	1.10%	0.55%	15.66%
35–41	1.37%	1.37%	1.37%	0.55%	1.10%	—	—	5.77%
42+	0.82%	0.82%	0.27%	0.82%	0.55%	—	—	3.30%
Total	10.16%	23.63%	23.35%	18.13%	15.66%	5.77%	3.30%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.45	19.45	+0.00
SD	11.17	11.17	17.91
CV	0.57	0.57	—
Max	62	62	+55
Min	0	0	-55

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.71	16.00	+6.71
SD	18.61	10.77	25.55
CV	0.82	0.67	—
Max	62	32	+55
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	—	—	—	57.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	24.36	-8.21
SD	6.98	10.68	14.08
CV	0.43	0.44	—
Max	29	44	+13
Min	0	3	-44

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.50	16.43	+2.07
SD	12.75	7.69	16.31
CV	0.69	0.47	—
Max	37	34	+24
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.93	23.86	-9.93
SD	11.52	9.85	18.70
CV	0.83	0.41	—
Max	35	46	+21
Min	0	13	-40

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.43	16.50	+3.93
SD	9.58	9.87	14.78
CV	0.47	0.60	—
Max	42	38	+27
Min	10	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.71	18.21	-1.50
SD	9.77	9.28	14.89
CV	0.58	0.51	—
Max	42	34	+29
Min	3	3	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	42.86%	21.43%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.29	14.50	+12.79
SD	12.37	10.22	16.64
CV	0.45	0.70	—
Max	45	37	+37
Min	7	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.29	21.14	+4.14
SD	12.03	7.96	12.32
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	48	36	+28
Min	10	10	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.36	17.64	+1.71
SD	12.46	9.95	20.55
CV	0.64	0.56	—
Max	40	34	+34
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.43	18.50	-4.07
SD	9.25	10.84	16.27
CV	0.64	0.59	—
Max	30	34	+21
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.21	31.93	-17.71
SD	8.52	8.05	11.29
CV	0.60	0.25	—
Max	31	48	+4
Min	0	17	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	13.71	+2.79
SD	9.22	9.69	15.30
CV	0.56	0.71	—
Max	38	37	+27
Min	6	0	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.71	12.71	+15.00
SD	8.97	8.90	11.08
CV	0.32	0.70	—
Max	40	31	+34
Min	9	0	-2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.50	10.71	+13.79
SD	12.29	7.76	14.42
CV	0.50	0.72	—
Max	44	26	+44
Min	3	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	57.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.14	12.00	+9.14
SD	9.46	7.04	13.90
CV	0.45	0.59	—
Max	31	27	+24
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	21.43	-3.00
SD	8.91	12.51	16.04
CV	0.48	0.58	—
Max	33	44	+32
Min	7	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	50.00%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.64	22.29	-10.64
SD	6.21	16.69	21.46
CV	0.53	0.75	—
Max	21	62	+16
Min	0	0	-55

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	25.86	-9.71
SD	10.55	11.12	16.58
CV	0.65	0.43	—
Max	34	45	+20
Min	0	12	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.14	21.86	-4.71
SD	9.67	9.84	14.17
CV	0.56	0.45	—
Max	34	40	+24
Min	3	7	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.86	12.50	+8.36
SD	12.20	7.71	15.84
CV	0.59	0.62	—
Max	42	24	+42
Min	3	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	57.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.14	28.07	-5.93
SD	6.53	8.23	10.73
CV	0.29	0.29	—
Max	30	44	+14
Min	7	16	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.79	15.00	+9.79
SD	9.68	7.09	13.83
CV	0.39	0.47	—
Max	38	30	+29
Min	7	6	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.43	27.57	-14.14
SD	10.60	10.85	17.43
CV	0.79	0.39	—
Max	34	42	+27
Min	0	7	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.71	22.79	-4.07
SD	11.43	12.35	17.38
CV	0.61	0.54	—
Max	40	40	+40
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	14.29%	—	14.29%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.43	26.07	-5.64
SD	10.39	9.32	15.41
CV	0.51	0.36	—
Max	35	45	+22
Min	3	10	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	14.14	+9.07
SD	10.64	10.44	16.49
CV	0.46	0.74	—
Max	38	34	+38
Min	3	0	-20

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.57	+0.4
Allowed	0.83	-0.4
Differential	0.91	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Rams	12	9.29	+2.71
2	Minnesota Vikings	12	9.37	+2.63
3	Buffalo Bills	9	6.62	+2.38
4	Cincinnati Bengals	10	7.68	+2.32
5	Dallas Cowboys	10	8.47	+1.53

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	2.5	6.07	-3.57
2	Chicago Bears	3	5.65	-2.65
3	New York Jets	4	6.16	-2.16
4	San Diego Chargers	2.5	4.25	-1.75
5	Houston Oilers	1	2.73	-1.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	7	Oct 14 – Nov 25	1 in 76
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	Sep 16 – Nov 11	1 in 72
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	Sep 16 – Oct 21	1 in 48
4	Buffalo Bills	4	Nov 25 – Dec 16	1 in 45
5	Baltimore Colts	2	Dec 9 – Dec 16	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	7	Sep 30 – Nov 11	1 in 56
2	Detroit Lions	3	Oct 7 – Oct 21	1 in 40
3	Baltimore Colts	6	Oct 28 – Dec 2	1 in 22
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 18 – Dec 3	1 in 20
5	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Sep 30 – Oct 21	1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.96%	20.60%	6.35%	0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	17.08%	45.74%	35.57%	1.61%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.94%	33.20%	53.61%	3.24%
Houston Oilers	0.02%	0.46%	4.47%	95.05%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	93.34%	5.64%	0.86%	0.14%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	3.33%	39.21%	27.54%	18.71%	11.21%
New York Jets	2.42%	30.26%	29.59%	22.81%	14.91%
Baltimore Colts	0.51%	14.56%	23.91%	30.69%	30.34%
New England Patriots	0.40%	10.32%	18.11%	27.64%	43.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	54.77%	28.83%	14.55%	1.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	29.26%	38.44%	27.88%	4.42%
Denver Broncos	15.48%	29.88%	45.34%	9.30%
San Diego Chargers	0.49%	2.84%	12.23%	84.44%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	64.18%	23.35%	9.80%	2.67%
Green Bay Packers	17.53%	33.59%	31.47%	17.41%
Detroit Lions	15.57%	32.41%	34.01%	18.02%
Chicago Bears	2.73%	10.66%	24.72%	61.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	65.69%	27.46%	5.58%	1.14%	0.14%
Dallas Cowboys	29.42%	48.57%	15.65%	5.19%	1.17%
New York Giants	3.18%	14.18%	40.77%	29.39%	12.48%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.53%	8.02%	28.17%	38.46%	23.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.18%	1.77%	9.83%	25.83%	62.39%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	58.63%	30.06%	10.18%	1.14%
Atlanta Falcons	31.70%	41.88%	22.37%	4.05%
San Francisco 49ers	9.05%	24.60%	51.01%	15.34%
New Orleans Saints	0.62%	3.46%	16.44%	79.47%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Miami Dolphins	54.45%	23.79%	12.19%	4.65%	2.43%	1.29%	0.66%	0.29%	0.15%	0.06%	0.02%	-	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.24%	28.10%	21.44%	12.05%	7.54%	4.76%	2.81%	1.68%	0.94%	0.30%	0.10%	0.03%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	13.67%	19.13%	19.63%	15.25%	10.73%	7.79%	5.69%	3.71%	2.44%	1.12%	0.62%	0.19%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.42%	10.39%	14.63%	15.50%	14.21%	12.03%	9.88%	7.83%	5.79%	2.90%	1.74%	0.57%	0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.85%	6.77%	9.96%	14.52%	14.51%	13.19%	11.75%	9.98%	8.53%	4.40%	2.19%	1.00%	0.36%
Denver Broncos	1.65%	4.96%	8.60%	11.26%	12.49%	12.88%	13.07%	12.31%	10.48%	5.89%	4.00%	1.82%	0.58%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.44%	3.47%	5.78%	9.45%	11.34%	12.68%	14.13%	14.12%	13.04%	7.54%	4.15%	2.13%	0.73%
Buffalo Bills	0.71%	1.78%	3.92%	7.95%	10.89%	12.47%	12.50%	12.30%	11.49%	10.84%	7.94%	5.28%	1.94%
New York Jets	0.45%	1.14%	2.46%	5.30%	8.25%	10.57%	11.79%	12.94%	13.28%	13.77%	9.92%	7.16%	2.98%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	0.20%	0.68%	1.98%	3.64%	6.00%	8.10%	10.61%	13.40%	17.93%	16.26%	13.72%	7.41%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.18%	0.45%	1.40%	2.74%	4.23%	5.82%	8.41%	10.90%	16.57%	17.33%	18.79%	13.13%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.09%	0.26%	0.66%	1.14%	1.92%	3.30%	4.86%	7.69%	14.19%	24.70%	25.76%	15.44%
Houston Oilers	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.10%	0.20%	0.49%	0.95%	1.89%	4.50%	11.03%	23.54%	57.27%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Washington Redskins	28.78%	22.20%	16.84%	11.32%	8.30%	5.47%	3.24%	1.86%	1.05%	0.56%	0.25%	0.11%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	22.43%	19.88%	16.67%	12.23%	9.42%	7.10%	4.91%	3.28%	2.07%	1.22%	0.59%	0.18%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	19.83%	19.41%	17.31%	13.37%	10.25%	7.70%	5.25%	3.27%	1.96%	0.99%	0.45%	0.18%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	10.17%	11.44%	12.97%	14.04%	14.18%	12.49%	8.28%	6.11%	4.34%	2.87%	1.81%	0.88%	0.44%
Atlanta Falcons	9.18%	11.13%	12.32%	13.48%	13.20%	12.37%	9.28%	7.38%	5.36%	3.11%	1.85%	1.00%	0.33%
Green Bay Packers	3.61%	5.67%	7.80%	9.99%	11.54%	12.65%	12.00%	10.67%	9.52%	7.21%	5.19%	3.04%	1.09%
Detroit Lions	3.40%	5.04%	7.06%	10.36%	11.28%	12.16%	13.38%	11.24%	9.31%	7.46%	5.27%	3.00%	1.03%
San Francisco 49ers	1.60%	2.80%	4.35%	6.67%	8.48%	10.16%	12.66%	13.98%	13.93%	10.23%	7.23%	5.44%	2.47%
New York Giants	0.48%	1.08%	1.93%	3.38%	5.18%	7.35%	10.64%	13.83%	14.62%	13.88%	12.45%	8.69%	6.49%
Chicago Bears	0.30%	0.70%	1.38%	2.55%	3.72%	5.33%	8.51%	10.14%	12.73%	17.07%	17.22%	13.42%	6.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.18%	0.48%	0.97%	1.78%	2.92%	4.45%	6.82%	9.90%	12.23%	15.00%	16.62%	14.40%	14.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.12%	0.28%	0.57%	1.02%	1.77%	3.03%	4.72%	7.26%	11.23%	16.90%	27.98%	25.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.27%	0.51%	0.99%	2.00%	3.63%	5.61%	9.19%	14.16%	21.68%	41.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Miami Dolphins	36.73%	19.65%	12.61%	9.35%	6.10%	5.08%	2.87%	2.25%	1.47%	1.20%	0.80%	0.60%	0.41%	0.30%	0.20%	0.14%	0.08%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Washington Redskins	12.01%	14.72%	11.93%	11.68%	9.29%	8.64%	6.39%	5.73%	4.45%	3.67%	2.92%	2.26%	1.73%	1.30%	1.02%	0.67%	0.51%	0.35%	0.30%	0.17%	0.11%	0.08%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.44%	12.25%	13.70%	11.23%	10.23%	8.69%	6.59%	5.61%	4.29%	3.63%	2.79%	2.30%	1.58%	1.42%	0.95%	0.84%	0.53%	0.39%	0.23%	0.14%	0.07%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	9.27%	11.38%	10.60%	10.33%	9.13%	8.26%	7.05%	5.89%	5.42%	4.35%	3.94%	3.01%	2.71%	2.01%	1.90%	1.29%	1.08%	0.78%	0.65%	0.41%	0.26%	0.16%	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	7.32%	10.70%	10.03%	10.59%	9.38%	8.82%	7.49%	6.62%	5.71%	4.60%	4.26%	3.40%	2.79%	2.19%	1.74%	1.26%	1.02%	0.71%	0.51%	0.37%	0.24%	0.11%	0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	7.69%	7.78%	9.23%	8.93%	9.12%	8.71%	7.69%	6.96%	5.71%	5.37%	4.29%	3.92%	3.06%	2.76%	2.09%	1.88%	1.38%	1.17%	0.73%	0.60%	0.36%	0.29%	0.15%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	3.84%	5.26%	6.00%	6.41%	7.12%	7.06%	7.32%	7.41%	7.12%	6.87%	6.00%	5.63%	4.54%	3.94%	3.33%	2.80%	2.37%	1.85%	1.51%	1.14%	0.93%	0.64%	0.45%	0.26%	0.17%	0.04%
Atlanta Falcons	2.87%	5.04%	5.59%	6.33%	6.67%	6.86%	7.26%	7.09%	6.97%	6.32%	6.36%	5.70%	5.00%	4.20%	3.93%	3.14%	2.84%	2.12%	1.69%	1.28%	1.06%	0.66%	0.49%	0.29%	0.16%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.25%	3.27%	4.90%	5.40%	6.65%	6.90%	7.30%	7.18%	6.93%	6.89%	6.09%	5.90%	5.34%	4.94%	4.25%	3.78%	3.04%	2.82%	1.79%	1.60%	1.05%	0.83%	0.45%	0.28%	0.12%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.38%	1.96%	3.23%	3.63%	4.66%	5.12%	6.28%	6.78%	6.68%	7.01%	6.61%	6.68%	5.99%	5.87%	5.20%	5.02%	4.20%	3.99%	2.80%	2.42%	1.57%	1.24%	0.74%	0.53%	0.29%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	0.97%	2.01%	2.62%	3.35%	4.06%	4.45%	5.32%	5.45%	6.23%	5.89%	6.78%	5.90%	6.43%	5.55%	5.83%	4.94%	4.94%	4.14%	3.92%	3.00%	2.79%	2.02%	1.62%	1.04%	0.57%	0.18%
Detroit Lions	0.98%	1.74%	2.34%	2.99%	3.68%	4.13%	5.34%	5.39%	6.17%	5.91%	6.52%	6.24%	6.79%	6.15%	5.97%	5.23%	4.96%	4.21%	3.96%	3.27%	2.79%	1.95%	1.57%	1.03%	0.52%	0.18%
Denver Broncos	0.68%	1.20%	2.20%	2.73%	3.82%	4.28%	5.10%	5.47%	5.99%	6.25%	6.33%	6.44%	6.36%	6.43%	5.87%	5.95%	5.13%	4.96%	3.70%	3.31%	2.52%	2.09%	1.41%	1.00%	0.52%	0.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.56%	0.89%	1.42%	1.91%	2.56%	3.05%	4.10%	4.58%	5.04%	5.89%	5.83%	6.56%	6.49%	7.28%	6.44%	7.16%	6.02%	6.34%	4.50%	4.36%	2.77%	2.46%	1.73%	1.15%	0.61%	0.31%
San Francisco 49ers	0.45%	0.79%	1.29%	1.56%	2.14%	2.51%	3.47%	3.67%	4.55%	4.53%	5.47%	5.42%	6.41%	6.32%	6.85%	6.75%	6.69%	6.51%	5.48%	4.91%	4.00%	3.46%	2.94%	2.02%	1.26%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	0.25%	0.47%	0.80%	1.18%	1.68%	2.32%	3.01%	4.10%	4.35%	5.62%	5.26%	6.47%	5.86%	6.77%	6.13%	6.48%	5.87%	5.89%	5.47%	5.39%	4.43%	3.98%	3.26%	2.51%	1.58%	0.89%
New York Jets	0.15%	0.29%	0.50%	0.67%	1.10%	1.45%	2.04%	2.66%	3.22%	4.15%	4.36%	5.45%	5.32%	6.09%	6.14%	6.84%	6.55%	6.79%	6.76%	6.68%	5.52%	5.49%	4.13%	3.80%	2.32%	1.53%
New York Giants	0.07%	0.23%	0.41%	0.64%	0.90%	1.21%	1.65%	2.08%	2.69%	3.07%	3.93%	4.26%	5.44%	5.74%	6.65%	6.92%	7.27%	7.49%	7.29%	6.83%	6.62%	5.71%	4.96%	3.60%	3.05%	1.28%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.14%	0.25%	0.42%	0.64%	0.80%	1.20%	1.47%	2.03%	2.11%	2.88%	3.18%	4.25%	4.54%	5.41%	5.52%	6.74%	6.94%	8.37%	8.09%	8.86%	7.63%	7.02%	5.45%	3.93%	2.06%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	0.06%	0.07%	0.13%	0.26%	0.40%	0.66%	1.00%	1.27%	1.93%	2.36%	3.09%	3.46%	4.32%	4.65%	5.81%	6.35%	7.13%	7.94%	8.70%	8.48%	8.25%	7.82%	6.96%	5.24%	3.65%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.02%	0.10%	0.15%	0.28%	0.45%	0.62%	0.89%	1.04%	1.54%	1.77%	2.32%	2.56%	3.59%	3.78%	4.99%	5.14%	6.41%	6.46%	7.58%	7.72%	8.62%	8.27%	7.98%	7.08%	6.95%	3.68%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%	0.12%	0.17%	0.29%	0.45%	0.77%	0.96%	1.46%	1.65%	2.21%	2.37%	3.21%	3.61%	4.58%	5.03%	5.95%	6.92%	8.23%	8.13%	9.26%	9.17%	9.61%	7.92%	7.81%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.09%	0.16%	0.24%	0.32%	0.48%	0.58%	0.89%	1.07%	1.60%	1.70%	2.49%	2.73%	3.84%	4.29%	5.80%	6.42%	8.76%	9.54%	12.68%	13.15%	13.15%	9.90%
San Diego Chargers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.08%	0.12%	0.20%	0.30%	0.42%	0.56%	0.81%	1.02%	1.37%	1.70%	2.13%	2.63%	3.41%	4.27%	5.63%	7.24%	8.71%	11.89%	11.25%	13.89%	11.70%	10.59%
Philadelphia Eagles	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.09%	0.17%	0.25%	0.31%	0.48%	0.66%	1.00%	1.26%	1.86%	2.04%	3.05%	3.36%	4.90%	5.35%	7.89%	8.35%	11.99%	13.32%	19.61%	13.89%
Houston Oilers	-	-	<0.01%	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.08%	0.13%	0.24%	0.35%	0.48%	0.66%	1.01%	1.54%	2.35%	3.45%	5.59%	7.92%	12.84%	20.26%	42.93%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	54.45%	24.90%	13.99%	2.56%	4.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.24%	28.46%	24.26%	9.97%	17.07%
Oakland Raiders	13.67%	19.40%	21.70%	13.63%	31.60%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.42%	10.22%	14.62%	15.71%	55.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.85%	6.36%	7.88%	16.66%	66.27%
Denver Broncos	1.65%	4.91%	8.92%	10.96%	73.57%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.44%	3.35%	5.15%	9.98%	80.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.71%	1.20%	1.42%	10.05%	86.63%
New York Jets	0.45%	0.83%	1.14%	6.28%	91.30%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	0.14%	0.30%	2.15%	97.35%
New England Patriots	0.04%	0.14%	0.23%	1.49%	98.11%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.10%	0.38%	0.56%	98.95%
Houston Oilers	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	99.96%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	28.78%	22.13%	14.78%	12.99%	21.32%
Minnesota Vikings	22.43%	20.91%	20.84%	8.71%	27.11%
Los Angeles Rams	19.83%	19.78%	19.02%	12.30%	29.08%
Dallas Cowboys	10.17%	10.52%	8.73%	17.79%	52.79%
Atlanta Falcons	9.18%	10.78%	11.75%	14.26%	54.03%
Green Bay Packers	3.61%	5.64%	8.28%	9.52%	72.95%
Detroit Lions	3.40%	5.01%	7.16%	10.19%	74.25%
San Francisco 49ers	1.60%	2.77%	4.67%	6.31%	84.64%
New York Giants	0.48%	1.07%	1.63%	3.30%	93.52%
Chicago Bears	0.30%	0.72%	1.70%	2.23%	95.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.18%	0.48%	0.87%	1.69%	96.78%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.13%	0.46%	0.47%	98.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.23%	99.58%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+23.63%

Fortress

59.89%3.85%36.26%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 83.67 Elo pts.

21 Elo

0.048 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+4.26 points

Home-Tilted

-8+4.04+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.8

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

27%

Miami Dolphins, 1st of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

29.3%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.32 · As Expected: 1.32 to 1.82 · Elevated: 1.82 to 2.48 · High Variance: 2.48 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.28 · Close: 3.28 to 4.43 · Off Target: 4.43 to 5.78 · Well Off Target: 5.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.78 · As Expected: 1.78 to 2.96 · More Than Expected: 2.96 to 4.74 · Far More Than Expected: 4.74 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.67 wins

As Expected

01.654

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.04

Pinpoint

03.858

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

98.82%

Los Angeles Rams

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

1.52%

New York Giants

050

Season Outliers

Expected

5 of 26

Several Outliers

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 8

Fewer Than Expected

02.48

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.26

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.10

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

85%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

15%

Mostly Decisive

0%15%100%

Blowouts

Expected

40%

Routine

0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Highly Predictable

00.191

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.05

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.49

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Chalk Held

0%29%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Favorites Held

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.23 · Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.76

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.11

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.061

Within Noise

00.1130.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	95.90%	68.97%	48.03%	27.03%
Los Angeles Rams	70.92%	42.42%	27.57%	15.37%
Minnesota Vikings	72.89%	46.76%	24.55%	12.37%
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.93%	40.76%	21.58%	10.52%
Washington Redskins	78.68%	44.91%	22.26%	10.09%
Dallas Cowboys	47.21%	27.99%	15.32%	8.12%
Oakland Raiders	68.40%	37.78%	15.07%	7.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	33.73%	14.81%	5.99%	2.91%
Atlanta Falcons	45.97%	15.17%	5.11%	1.76%
Kansas City Chiefs	44.97%	15.39%	3.65%	1.23%
Detroit Lions	25.75%	9.74%	2.81%	0.95%
Denver Broncos	26.43%	9.48%	2.51%	0.92%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.92%	6.02%	1.74%	0.65%
Buffalo Bills	13.37%	4.64%	1.19%	0.43%
Green Bay Packers	27.05%	7.37%	1.42%	0.33%
San Francisco 49ers	15.36%	2.91%	0.59%	0.14%
New York Jets	8.70%	1.41%	0.17%	0.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.22%	0.66%	0.11%	0.03%
New York Giants	6.48%	1.15%	0.18%	0.03%
Baltimore Colts	2.65%	0.37%	0.04%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	1.89%	0.26%	0.03%	<0.01%
Chicago Bears	4.96%	0.71%	0.05%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	1.10%	0.15%	0.03%	<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	1.05%	0.11%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.04%	<0.01%	-	-
Philadelphia Eagles	0.42%	0.06%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			8.5%0.06%	34.4%0.03%	12.9%0.36%		19.2%0.75%				10.8%1.20%	11.4%0.24%	54.5%0.01%
Buffalo Bills			32.7%0.35%	55.4%0.28%	41.0%1.84%		47.1%2.91%				27.0%6.19%	30.4%1.75%	80.3%0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	91.5%0.06%	67.3%0.35%			53.2%3.37%		59.7%6.38%	32.6%10.31%	89.1%0.05%	83.0%0.25%	40.5%12.85%		85.5%0.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	65.6%0.03%	44.6%0.28%			38.7%2.25%		42.9%3.85%	20.9%5.92%	76.7%0.03%	75.1%0.20%	25.7%7.28%		81.0%0.08%
Denver Broncos	87.1%0.36%	59.0%1.84%	46.8%3.37%	61.3%2.25%		100.0%<0.01%		17.2%10.83%	81.2%0.28%	80.5%1.01%		34.3%6.49%
Houston Oilers					0.0%<0.01%		18.2%0.01%	12.5%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	80.8%0.75%	52.9%2.91%	40.3%6.38%	57.1%3.85%		81.8%0.01%		14.7%15.52%	81.8%0.43%	78.2%2.25%		31.7%12.87%
Miami Dolphins			67.4%10.31%	79.1%5.92%	82.8%10.83%	87.5%<0.01%	85.3%15.52%				72.2%14.46%	63.0%38.30%	97.1%0.56%
New England Patriots			10.9%0.05%	23.3%0.03%	18.8%0.28%		18.2%0.43%				9.7%0.90%	11.2%0.20%	25.0%0.01%
New York Jets			17.0%0.25%	24.9%0.20%	19.5%1.01%	100.0%<0.01%	21.8%2.25%				11.7%3.75%	13.6%1.18%	52.0%0.05%
Oakland Raiders	89.2%1.20%	73.0%6.19%	59.5%12.85%	74.3%7.28%		100.0%0.02%		27.8%14.46%	90.3%0.90%	88.3%3.75%		50.5%21.76%
Pittsburgh Steelers	88.6%0.24%	69.6%1.75%			65.7%6.49%		68.3%12.87%	37.0%38.30%	88.8%0.20%	86.4%1.18%	49.5%21.76%		91.1%0.16%
San Diego Chargers	45.5%0.01%	19.7%0.06%	14.5%0.12%	19.0%0.08%		100.0%<0.01%		2.9%0.56%	75.0%0.01%	48.0%0.05%		8.9%0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		73.5%0.63%	26.6%7.08%	40.7%3.78%	56.0%4.35%		22.2%14.27%		77.4%0.80%	90.0%0.03%		73.3%0.31%	32.7%14.71%
Chicago Bears	26.5%0.63%		8.5%0.93%			7.7%0.83%		54.5%0.02%	43.7%0.18%	53.3%0.01%	43.8%0.27%	43.4%0.08%	7.1%2.00%
Dallas Cowboys	73.4%7.08%	91.5%0.93%		71.7%5.31%	82.1%5.26%	46.3%12.01%	43.9%14.32%	93.0%0.13%			85.1%2.17%
Detroit Lions	59.3%3.78%		28.3%5.31%			28.3%5.19%		81.7%0.10%	76.9%0.79%	86.4%0.04%	76.0%1.38%	67.4%0.36%	28.5%8.79%
Green Bay Packers	44.0%4.35%		17.9%5.26%			18.0%5.82%		69.8%0.10%	64.8%0.76%	70.4%0.07%	65.3%1.54%	62.2%0.38%	18.4%8.77%
Los Angeles Rams		92.3%0.83%	53.7%12.01%	71.7%5.19%	82.0%5.82%		49.0%19.55%		91.6%1.20%	91.7%0.06%		88.7%0.66%	60.1%25.60%
Minnesota Vikings	77.8%14.27%		56.1%14.32%			51.0%19.55%		92.0%0.46%	91.3%2.50%	95.6%0.18%	88.4%5.69%	88.2%1.33%	58.7%14.58%
New Orleans Saints		45.5%0.02%	7.0%0.13%	18.3%0.10%	30.2%0.10%		8.0%0.46%		62.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		60.0%<0.01%	10.7%0.26%
New York Giants	22.6%0.80%	56.3%0.18%		23.1%0.79%	35.2%0.76%	8.4%1.20%	8.7%2.50%	37.5%0.02%			42.3%0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.0%0.03%	46.7%0.01%		13.6%0.04%	29.6%0.07%	8.3%0.06%	4.4%0.18%	0.0%<0.01%			42.9%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		56.2%0.27%	14.9%2.17%	24.0%1.38%	34.7%1.54%		11.6%5.69%		57.7%0.22%	57.1%0.01%		60.2%0.11%	17.9%3.96%
St. Louis Cardinals	26.7%0.31%	56.6%0.08%		32.6%0.36%	37.8%0.38%	11.3%0.66%	11.8%1.33%	40.0%<0.01%			39.8%0.11%
Washington Redskins	67.3%14.71%	92.8%2.00%		71.5%8.79%	81.6%8.77%	39.9%25.60%	41.3%14.58%	89.3%0.26%			82.1%3.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		33.3%<0.01%	21.1%0.02%	60.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%		40.0%0.01%	10.4%0.18%		0.0%<0.01%	4.3%0.02%	7.1%0.11%
Buffalo Bills	66.7%<0.01%		36.0%0.20%	46.6%0.07%	52.1%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	48.3%0.12%	20.4%2.44%		71.4%<0.01%	32.6%0.48%	25.9%1.23%	100.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	78.9%0.02%	64.0%0.20%		64.7%0.25%	73.7%0.40%		75.2%0.64%	29.9%7.37%	91.7%0.01%	85.9%0.07%	52.5%1.86%	41.7%3.99%	66.7%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	40.0%<0.01%	53.4%0.07%	35.3%0.25%		52.7%0.18%		57.7%0.24%	19.8%2.95%	100.0%<0.01%	84.8%0.03%	41.4%0.71%	29.3%1.56%	100.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	83.3%<0.01%	47.9%0.09%	26.3%0.40%	47.3%0.18%			55.1%0.36%	21.3%4.96%	100.0%<0.01%	73.3%0.03%	34.9%1.12%	25.6%2.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	60.0%0.01%	51.7%0.12%	24.8%0.64%	42.3%0.24%	44.9%0.36%			19.3%8.54%	100.0%<0.01%	68.8%0.05%	33.4%1.95%	23.7%3.47%	50.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	89.6%0.18%	79.6%2.44%	70.1%7.37%	80.2%2.95%	78.7%4.96%		80.7%8.54%		89.7%0.14%	90.7%0.68%	65.9%22.77%	62.4%18.88%	94.0%0.07%
New England Patriots			8.3%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	10.3%0.14%			19.0%0.02%	13.9%0.08%
New York Jets	100.0%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	14.1%0.07%	15.2%0.03%	26.7%0.03%		31.2%0.05%	9.3%0.68%			13.7%0.17%	12.1%0.37%
Oakland Raiders	95.7%0.02%	67.4%0.48%	47.5%1.86%	58.6%0.71%	65.1%1.12%		66.6%1.95%	34.1%22.77%	81.0%0.02%	86.3%0.17%		39.9%8.68%	100.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	92.9%0.11%	74.1%1.23%	58.3%3.99%	70.7%1.56%	74.4%2.33%	100.0%<0.01%	76.3%3.47%	37.6%18.88%	86.1%0.08%	87.9%0.37%	60.1%8.68%		100.0%0.03%
San Diego Chargers		0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%	6.0%0.07%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		84.9%0.05%	30.8%1.98%	56.3%0.66%	70.0%0.56%	25.1%4.42%	33.8%3.80%	66.7%<0.01%	73.9%0.09%	83.3%<0.01%	67.2%0.18%	62.2%0.04%	31.8%3.37%
Chicago Bears	15.1%0.05%		3.6%0.08%	9.1%0.01%	10.0%0.01%	2.9%0.24%	6.2%0.10%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		10.0%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	8.8%0.19%
Dallas Cowboys	69.2%1.98%	96.4%0.08%		72.7%1.36%	83.9%1.02%	42.1%6.69%	51.7%8.40%	76.0%0.03%	86.3%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	82.8%0.40%	91.4%0.06%	55.5%7.86%
Detroit Lions	43.7%0.66%	90.9%0.01%	27.3%1.36%		57.6%0.14%	19.9%3.02%	28.9%1.88%	66.7%<0.01%	74.1%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	58.4%0.10%	73.3%0.03%	31.6%2.47%
Green Bay Packers	30.0%0.56%	90.0%0.01%	16.1%1.02%	42.4%0.14%		11.3%2.17%	20.2%1.28%	33.3%<0.01%	58.5%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	49.4%0.08%	50.0%0.02%	21.5%2.04%
Los Angeles Rams	74.9%4.42%	97.1%0.24%	57.9%6.69%	80.1%3.02%	88.7%2.17%		59.9%13.41%	90.9%0.04%	90.7%0.30%	89.5%0.02%	87.6%0.76%	87.5%0.20%	59.3%11.14%
Minnesota Vikings	66.2%3.80%	93.8%0.10%	48.3%8.40%	71.1%1.88%	79.8%1.28%	40.1%13.41%		89.7%0.03%	87.2%0.30%	100.0%0.01%	79.2%0.65%	86.9%0.18%	54.9%16.73%
New Orleans Saints	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	24.0%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	9.1%0.04%	10.3%0.03%				100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	12.0%0.03%
New York Giants	26.1%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	13.7%0.10%	25.9%0.05%	41.5%0.04%	9.3%0.30%	12.8%0.30%				57.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	13.0%0.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	16.7%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	10.5%0.02%	0.0%0.01%				0.0%<0.01%		0.0%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	32.8%0.18%	90.0%0.01%	17.2%0.40%	41.6%0.10%	50.6%0.08%	12.4%0.76%	20.8%0.65%	0.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	19.1%0.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	37.8%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	8.6%0.06%	26.7%0.03%	50.0%0.02%	12.5%0.20%	13.1%0.18%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%		13.6%0.12%
Washington Redskins	68.2%3.37%	91.2%0.19%	44.5%7.86%	68.4%2.47%	78.5%2.04%	40.7%11.14%	45.1%16.73%	88.0%0.03%	87.0%0.25%	100.0%0.01%	80.9%0.70%	86.4%0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	20.0%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.01%	14.3%0.01%				0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	55.0%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	30.4%0.15%	32.1%0.03%	75.0%0.02%	31.3%0.34%	33.2%0.32%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	39.8%0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	67.7%0.33%	75.0%<0.01%	42.1%0.84%	62.9%0.18%	71.3%0.09%	41.3%1.72%	46.7%1.38%	0.0%<0.01%	80.0%0.01%		70.0%0.05%	60.0%0.01%	54.3%1.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	54.8%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	27.6%0.27%	66.1%0.06%	86.7%0.03%	31.8%0.45%	33.5%0.43%		66.7%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	40.6%0.37%
Denver Broncos	51.3%0.15%		32.2%0.35%	60.3%0.07%	68.8%0.03%	30.1%0.72%	35.8%0.61%		100.0%<0.01%		50.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	39.8%0.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	42.4%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%	28.1%0.59%	54.7%0.09%	63.6%0.04%	28.2%0.93%	32.9%0.91%	100.0%<0.01%	83.3%<0.01%		47.8%0.02%	40.0%<0.01%	37.5%0.87%
Miami Dolphins	70.6%2.43%	90.5%0.02%	52.7%7.29%	71.0%1.39%	78.7%0.66%	50.2%13.29%	54.7%11.87%	84.6%0.01%	89.8%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	85.1%0.28%	84.3%0.05%	60.1%10.66%
New England Patriots	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%						20.0%0.01%
New York Jets	44.4%<0.01%		12.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		17.0%0.05%	24.3%0.04%				0.0%<0.01%		15.9%0.04%
Oakland Raiders	61.7%0.83%	100.0%<0.01%	44.3%2.33%	64.4%0.44%	77.5%0.24%	39.4%4.08%	46.5%3.65%	100.0%<0.01%	82.6%0.02%		71.1%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%3.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.5%1.01%	85.7%<0.01%	45.4%3.45%	61.6%0.55%	76.7%0.31%	41.3%5.98%	48.2%5.33%	100.0%<0.01%	81.1%0.04%		71.8%0.11%	82.8%0.03%	53.3%4.75%
San Diego Chargers			0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons														80.0%<0.01%	45.0%0.06%	32.3%0.33%	45.2%0.10%	48.7%0.15%	57.6%0.18%	29.4%2.43%	50.0%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	38.3%0.83%	35.5%1.01%
Chicago Bears															0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	9.5%0.02%			0.0%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														80.0%<0.01%	69.6%0.15%	57.9%0.84%	72.4%0.27%	67.8%0.35%	71.9%0.59%	47.3%7.29%	100.0%<0.01%	87.5%0.03%	55.7%2.33%	54.6%3.45%	100.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions															67.9%0.03%	37.1%0.18%	33.9%0.06%	39.7%0.07%	45.3%0.09%	29.0%1.39%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.44%	38.4%0.55%	0.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers														50.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.02%	28.7%0.09%	13.3%0.03%	31.2%0.03%	36.4%0.04%	21.3%0.66%			22.5%0.24%	23.3%0.31%
Los Angeles Rams														90.0%0.01%	68.7%0.34%	58.7%1.72%	68.2%0.45%	69.9%0.72%	71.8%0.93%	49.8%13.29%	100.0%<0.01%	83.0%0.05%	60.6%4.08%	58.7%5.98%
Minnesota Vikings														85.7%0.01%	66.8%0.32%	53.3%1.38%	66.5%0.43%	64.2%0.61%	67.1%0.91%	45.3%11.87%	60.0%<0.01%	75.7%0.04%	53.5%3.65%	51.8%5.33%	100.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints															100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants															50.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	10.2%0.09%			17.4%0.02%	18.9%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles																				0.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers														100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	30.0%0.05%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%0.02%	52.2%0.02%	14.9%0.28%		100.0%<0.01%	28.9%0.10%	28.2%0.11%
St. Louis Cardinals															0.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	15.7%0.05%			33.3%<0.01%	17.2%0.03%
Washington Redskins														100.0%<0.01%	60.2%0.27%	45.7%1.38%	59.4%0.37%	60.2%0.56%	62.5%0.87%	39.9%10.66%	80.0%0.01%	84.1%0.04%	50.0%3.36%	46.7%4.75%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Miami Dolphins	73.05%	51.57%	26.53%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	65.14%	34.47%	18.73%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	67.42%	37.53%	17.98%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	34.86%	18.11%	9.93%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	57.80%	20.63%	8.83%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.20%	14.49%	7.11%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	26.95%	13.32%	6.07%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	32.58%	9.89%	4.82%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals		27.0%100.00%
Miami Dolphins	73.0%100.00%
Oakland Raiders				57.8%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers			42.2%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		34.9%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams	65.1%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings				67.4%100.00%
Washington Redskins			32.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals			42.1%15.59%	59.5%11.36%
Miami Dolphins			72.5%42.21%	68.0%30.84%
Oakland Raiders	57.9%15.59%	27.5%42.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.5%11.36%	32.0%30.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			44.1%23.65%	68.6%11.22%
Los Angeles Rams			44.5%43.78%	70.2%21.36%
Minnesota Vikings	55.9%23.65%	55.5%43.78%
Washington Redskins	31.4%11.22%	29.8%21.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	42.8%2.44%	42.6%4.58%	48.7%4.97%	49.2%1.32%
Miami Dolphins	47.7%9.40%	48.5%17.65%	55.4%19.37%	53.8%5.15%
Oakland Raiders	40.4%3.74%	40.4%7.18%	45.5%7.70%	45.7%2.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	45.2%2.54%	46.0%5.05%	52.9%5.49%	51.9%1.41%
Dallas Cowboys					57.2%2.44%	52.3%9.40%	59.6%3.74%	54.8%2.54%
Los Angeles Rams					57.4%4.58%	51.5%17.65%	59.6%7.18%	54.0%5.05%
Minnesota Vikings					51.3%4.97%	44.6%19.37%	54.5%7.70%	47.1%5.49%
Washington Redskins					50.8%1.32%	46.2%5.15%	54.3%2.02%	48.1%1.41%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Miami Dolphins 26.53% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

59.36%

Win Prob

72.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.42%

Win Prob

55.37%

Los Angeles Rams 18.73% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.51%

Win Prob

44.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

48.56%

Win Prob

51.54%

Minnesota Vikings 17.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.42%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

64.75%

Win Prob

55.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

48.09%

Win Prob

44.63%

Dallas Cowboys 9.93% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

57.51%

Win Prob

44.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

49.51%

Win Prob

52.29%

Oakland Raiders 8.83% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.80%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

56.24%

Win Prob

27.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

39.63%

Win Prob

45.50%

Pittsburgh Steelers 7.11% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

68.21%

Win Prob

32.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.89%

Win Prob

52.89%

Cincinnati Bengals 6.07% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

50.72%

Win Prob

59.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

39.91%

Win Prob

48.72%

Washington Redskins 4.82% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.58%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

64.39%

Win Prob

29.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

49.35%

Win Prob

46.22%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1973-09-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 62-7	1477.62	1380.97	49.84%	46.11%	+74.53	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-31	1552.15	1525.90	39.89%	56.16%	-48.61	1-1
1973-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-31	1503.54	1542.78	31.41%	64.96%	-34.46	1-2
1973-10-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-13	1469.08	1520.77	52.56%	43.42%	-22.80	1-3
1973-10-14	Chicago Bears	W 46-6	1446.28	1439.94	60.64%	35.54%	+49.29	2-3
1973-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-0	1495.57	1397.39	50.06%	45.89%	+64.06	3-3
1973-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1559.63	1549.14	37.76%	58.34%	+47.17	4-3
1973-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-13	1606.80	1675.43	50.14%	45.82%	+14.13	5-3
1973-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 44-27	1620.93	1374.66	69.83%	26.81%	+24.25	6-3
1973-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-14	1645.18	1734.53	47.16%	48.79%	+25.99	7-3
1973-11-25	@ New York Jets	W 28-20	1671.17	1430.43	69.17%	27.42%	+17.02	8-3
1973-12-02	Buffalo Bills	L 6-17	1688.19	1431.55	86.14%	11.94%	-60.69	8-4
1973-12-09	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-32	1627.50	1352.58	87.31%	10.91%	-86.91	8-5
1973-12-16	New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1540.59	1377.19	78.73%	18.59%	+8.12	9-5
1973-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-24	1481.39	1533.16	29.91%	66.54%	-20.76	0-1
1973-09-23	New York Jets	L 10-34	1460.63	1461.64	59.64%	36.50%	-63.09	0-2
1973-09-30	New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1397.54	1291.05	72.96%	23.89%	+10.48	1-2
1973-10-07	@ New England Patriots	L 16-24	1408.02	1267.10	56.13%	39.91%	-34.36	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1373.66	1431.50	29.20%	67.29%	-27.18	1-4
1973-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-27	1346.48	1495.63	19.83%	77.38%	+23.40	2-4
1973-10-28	Oakland Raiders	L 21-34	1369.88	1606.79	27.85%	68.72%	-22.04	2-5
1973-11-04	Houston Oilers	L 27-31	1347.84	1206.29	76.63%	20.51%	-32.79	2-6
1973-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-44	1315.05	1747.88	4.78%	94.33%	-6.74	2-7
1973-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-22	1308.31	1636.83	8.31%	90.27%	-5.04	2-8
1973-11-25	Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1303.27	1405.39	45.33%	50.63%	-26.15	2-9
1973-12-02	@ New York Jets	L 17-20	1277.12	1413.41	21.00%	76.10%	-7.96	2-10
1973-12-09	Miami Dolphins	W 16-3	1269.16	1803.35	6.80%	92.00%	+70.05	3-10
1973-12-16	New England Patriots	W 18-13	1339.21	1370.55	55.44%	40.58%	+19.86	4-10
1973-09-16	@ New England Patriots	W 31-13	1414.47	1329.19	48.20%	47.74%	+44.09	1-0
1973-09-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-34	1458.56	1417.53	41.92%	54.08%	-47.63	1-1
1973-09-30	New York Jets	W 9-7	1410.93	1524.73	43.68%	52.30%	+16.04	2-1
1973-10-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-26	1426.97	1287.36	76.44%	20.69%	+4.53	3-1
1973-10-14	Baltimore Colts	W 31-13	1431.50	1373.66	67.29%	29.20%	+27.19	4-1
1973-10-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-27	1458.69	1709.22	12.31%	85.73%	-12.20	4-2
1973-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-14	1446.49	1530.59	47.91%	48.04%	+31.36	5-2
1973-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-13	1477.85	1395.05	47.85%	48.10%	-37.55	5-3
1973-11-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-16	1440.30	1519.28	48.65%	47.30%	-18.32	5-4
1973-11-18	Miami Dolphins	L 0-17	1421.98	1754.62	18.43%	78.91%	-16.59	5-5
1973-11-25	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1405.39	1303.27	50.63%	45.33%	+26.16	6-5
1973-12-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-6	1431.55	1688.19	11.94%	86.14%	+60.69	7-5
1973-12-09	New England Patriots	W 37-13	1492.24	1397.52	71.65%	25.11%	+26.98	8-5
1973-12-16	@ New York Jets	W 34-14	1519.22	1411.11	51.48%	44.48%	+43.41	9-5
1973-09-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1445.74	1549.98	45.03%	50.93%	-17.02	0-1
1973-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-22	1428.72	1573.39	39.40%	56.66%	-25.87	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 33-14	1402.85	1500.84	24.77%	72.02%	+67.34	1-2
1973-10-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-21	1470.19	1280.58	62.76%	33.50%	-30.25	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-46	1439.94	1446.28	35.54%	60.64%	-49.29	1-4
1973-10-21	New England Patriots	L 10-13	1390.65	1290.86	72.22%	24.58%	-26.84	1-5
1973-10-28	Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1363.81	1227.31	76.12%	20.98%	+21.03	2-5
1973-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1384.84	1501.41	22.88%	74.05%	+59.37	3-5
1973-11-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-19	1444.21	1534.61	25.57%	71.16%	-19.42	3-6
1973-11-18	Detroit Lions	L 7-30	1424.79	1537.83	43.78%	52.19%	-45.85	3-7
1973-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-31	1378.94	1708.54	8.26%	90.32%	-7.51	3-8
1973-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-26	1371.43	1704.63	18.39%	78.96%	-20.45	3-9
1973-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-40	1350.98	1549.65	15.79%	81.83%	-19.73	3-10
1973-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1331.25	1393.87	51.00%	44.96%	-50.74	3-11
1973-09-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-28	1520.42	1478.19	42.09%	53.91%	-39.03	0-1
1973-09-23	Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1481.39	1327.43	77.84%	19.41%	+15.85	1-1
1973-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1497.24	1465.15	40.69%	55.34%	+31.69	2-1
1973-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-17	1528.93	1539.30	35.02%	61.18%	-20.32	2-2
1973-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-7	1508.61	1711.94	31.80%	64.54%	+48.15	3-2
1973-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-6	1556.76	1552.83	60.31%	35.85%	+22.24	4-2
1973-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1579.00	1677.60	24.70%	72.09%	-14.33	4-3
1973-11-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1564.67	1543.62	39.18%	56.88%	-45.39	4-4
1973-11-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1519.28	1440.30	47.30%	48.65%	+18.32	5-4
1973-11-18	New York Jets	W 20-14	1537.60	1443.98	71.53%	25.23%	+13.55	6-4
1973-11-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-24	1551.15	1385.71	78.92%	18.42%	+17.05	7-4
1973-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-0	1568.20	1716.05	38.97%	57.10%	+64.16	8-4
1973-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-17	1632.36	1593.22	64.94%	31.42%	+28.43	9-4
1973-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-24	1660.79	1147.39	91.10%	7.58%	+2.81	10-4
1973-09-16	Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1533.16	1481.39	66.54%	29.91%	+20.76	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-33	1553.92	1656.30	24.31%	72.51%	-27.69	1-1
1973-09-30	New York Giants	W 12-10	1526.23	1569.87	53.71%	42.29%	+13.07	2-1
1973-10-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1539.30	1528.93	61.18%	35.02%	+20.33	3-1
1973-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 9-17	1559.63	1683.05	42.33%	53.67%	-26.17	3-2
1973-10-21	Houston Oilers	W 42-13	1533.46	1238.75	88.48%	9.87%	+11.44	4-2
1973-10-28	San Diego Chargers	T 16-16	1544.90	1333.33	82.87%	14.86%	-3.61	4-2
1973-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-26	1541.29	1695.20	19.41%	77.84%	-20.33	4-3
1973-11-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-13	1520.96	1239.08	73.84%	23.08%	+15.99	5-3
1973-11-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 7-3	1536.95	1620.65	26.29%	70.39%	+30.23	6-3
1973-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1567.18	1682.35	43.48%	52.49%	+25.45	7-3
1973-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	T 20-20	1592.63	1547.94	42.44%	53.56%	+0.59	7-3
1973-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-34	1593.22	1632.36	31.42%	64.94%	-28.44	7-4
1973-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-30	1564.78	1735.48	17.99%	79.40%	-14.14	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1549.98	1445.74	50.93%	45.03%	+17.01	1-0
1973-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 40-3	1566.99	1306.44	86.40%	11.71%	+15.39	2-0
1973-09-30	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-10	1582.38	1501.22	70.09%	26.57%	+34.48	3-0
1973-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1616.86	1627.13	35.03%	61.16%	-20.33	3-1
1973-10-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-37	1596.53	1641.53	30.71%	65.69%	-16.51	3-2
1973-10-21	New York Giants	W 45-28	1580.02	1498.04	70.19%	26.48%	+23.95	4-2
1973-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-30	1603.97	1308.01	75.32%	21.72%	-60.35	4-3
1973-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-10	1543.62	1564.67	56.88%	39.18%	+45.39	5-3
1973-11-11	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1589.01	1421.50	59.80%	36.34%	+28.73	6-3
1973-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-10	1617.74	1350.40	86.84%	11.33%	+11.20	7-3
1973-11-22	Miami Dolphins	L 7-14	1628.94	1771.20	39.73%	56.32%	-23.00	7-4
1973-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 22-10	1605.94	1599.53	37.21%	58.91%	+44.07	8-4
1973-12-09	Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1650.01	1695.72	53.41%	42.58%	+41.61	9-4
1973-12-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-3	1691.62	1439.48	70.51%	26.17%	+29.83	10-4
1973-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-10	1478.19	1520.42	53.91%	42.09%	+39.03	1-0
1973-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 34-36	1517.22	1562.68	53.45%	42.54%	-16.38	1-1
1973-09-30	Chicago Bears	L 14-33	1500.84	1402.85	72.02%	24.77%	-67.34	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1433.50	1543.77	23.51%	73.37%	-7.29	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Houston Oilers	W 48-20	1426.21	1284.92	56.19%	39.86%	+46.17	2-3
1973-10-22	Oakland Raiders	T 23-23	1472.38	1607.56	40.70%	55.33%	+0.76	2-3
1973-10-28	@ New York Jets	W 40-28	1473.14	1482.81	35.11%	61.08%	+45.66	3-3
1973-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 17-17	1518.80	1429.35	48.80%	47.14%	-0.09	3-3
1973-11-11	San Diego Chargers	W 30-19	1518.71	1301.56	83.31%	14.47%	+10.41	4-3
1973-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-13	1529.12	1738.04	15.05%	82.66%	+55.70	5-3
1973-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-10	1584.82	1562.65	62.74%	33.52%	+14.71	6-3
1973-12-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-22	1599.53	1605.94	58.91%	37.21%	-44.08	6-4
1973-12-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-28	1555.45	1275.32	73.65%	23.26%	+19.06	7-4
1973-12-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1574.51	1644.73	27.78%	68.79%	-12.19	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1563.62	1633.46	27.82%	68.75%	-22.84	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1540.78	1597.31	29.35%	67.13%	+2.00	0-1
1973-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-6	1542.78	1503.54	64.96%	31.41%	+34.47	1-1
1973-10-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-23	1577.25	1621.50	53.62%	42.37%	-43.48	1-2
1973-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1533.77	1310.83	67.01%	29.46%	-38.14	1-3
1973-10-21	Baltimore Colts	L 27-29	1495.63	1346.48	77.38%	19.83%	-23.40	1-4
1973-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 34-0	1472.23	1563.64	46.86%	49.09%	+62.23	2-4
1973-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-20	1534.46	1501.97	64.09%	32.23%	+22.37	3-4
1973-11-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-28	1556.83	1715.53	19.00%	78.29%	-19.00	3-5
1973-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-7	1537.83	1424.79	52.19%	43.78%	+45.85	4-5
1973-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1583.68	1641.87	51.63%	44.33%	-50.11	4-6
1973-12-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-16	1533.57	1368.66	59.45%	36.69%	+16.08	5-6
1973-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 40-7	1549.65	1350.98	81.83%	15.79%	+19.73	6-6
1973-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-34	1569.38	1733.30	18.55%	78.78%	-21.03	6-7
1973-09-17	New York Jets	W 23-7	1574.93	1484.02	71.22%	25.51%	+22.38	1-0
1973-09-23	Detroit Lions	T 13-13	1597.31	1540.78	67.13%	29.35%	-2.00	1-0
1973-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-11	1595.31	1599.27	35.85%	60.32%	-22.24	1-1
1973-10-07	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1573.07	1556.80	38.53%	57.55%	+17.59	2-1
1973-10-14	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1590.66	1551.05	65.00%	31.36%	-1.77	2-1
1973-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1588.89	1658.04	27.90%	68.67%	-25.25	2-2
1973-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-34	1563.64	1472.23	49.09%	46.86%	-62.23	2-3
1973-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 17-31	1501.41	1384.84	74.05%	22.88%	-59.38	2-4
1973-11-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 25-21	1442.03	1429.44	61.48%	34.73%	+15.24	3-4
1973-11-18	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1457.27	1278.10	61.37%	34.83%	-39.72	3-5
1973-11-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1417.55	1443.68	33.02%	63.26%	-27.11	3-6
1973-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 30-10	1390.44	1382.16	60.90%	35.29%	+34.61	4-6
1973-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1425.05	1651.89	29.00%	67.49%	-31.18	4-7
1973-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-0	1393.87	1331.25	44.96%	51.00%	+50.73	5-7
1973-09-16	@ New York Giants	L 14-34	1341.37	1559.93	14.37%	83.41%	-13.94	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1327.43	1481.39	19.41%	77.84%	-15.86	0-2
1973-09-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-36	1311.57	1683.99	15.32%	82.35%	-17.93	0-3
1973-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 26-31	1293.64	1632.80	17.89%	79.51%	-8.72	0-4
1973-10-14	Denver Broncos	L 20-48	1284.92	1426.21	39.86%	56.19%	-46.17	0-5
1973-10-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-42	1238.75	1533.46	9.87%	88.48%	-11.44	0-6
1973-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1227.31	1363.81	20.98%	76.12%	-21.02	0-7
1973-11-04	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-27	1206.29	1347.84	20.51%	76.63%	+32.79	1-7
1973-11-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-23	1239.08	1520.96	23.08%	73.84%	-15.98	1-8
1973-11-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-38	1223.10	1554.04	8.20%	90.39%	-8.62	1-9
1973-11-25	New England Patriots	L 0-32	1214.48	1317.81	45.16%	50.80%	-55.72	1-10
1973-12-02	Oakland Raiders	L 6-17	1158.76	1602.62	10.82%	87.41%	-7.73	1-11
1973-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-33	1151.03	1647.75	3.38%	95.98%	-3.64	1-12
1973-12-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1147.39	1660.79	7.58%	91.10%	-2.81	1-13
1973-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-23	1539.95	1479.96	67.55%	28.95%	-45.94	0-1
1973-09-23	@ New England Patriots	W 10-7	1494.01	1285.10	65.25%	31.12%	+11.83	1-1
1973-09-30	Oakland Raiders	W 16-3	1505.84	1592.11	47.60%	48.35%	+37.93	2-1
1973-10-07	Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1543.77	1433.50	73.37%	23.51%	+7.28	3-1
1973-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	T 10-10	1551.05	1590.66	31.36%	65.00%	+1.78	3-1
1973-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-14	1552.83	1556.76	35.85%	60.31%	-22.24	3-2
1973-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-23	1530.59	1446.49	48.04%	47.91%	-31.36	3-3
1973-11-04	@ San Diego Chargers	W 19-0	1499.23	1336.94	59.09%	37.03%	+35.38	4-3
1973-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 19-7	1534.61	1444.21	71.16%	25.57%	+19.43	5-3
1973-11-18	Houston Oilers	W 38-14	1554.04	1223.10	90.39%	8.20%	+8.61	6-3
1973-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1562.65	1584.82	33.52%	62.74%	-14.71	6-4
1973-12-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 20-20	1547.94	1592.63	53.56%	42.44%	-0.58	6-4
1973-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-37	1547.36	1610.35	28.60%	67.92%	-34.38	6-5
1973-12-16	San Diego Chargers	W 33-6	1512.98	1256.25	86.15%	11.94%	+13.40	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-13	1479.96	1539.95	28.95%	67.55%	+45.94	1-0
1973-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-0	1525.90	1552.15	56.16%	39.89%	+48.61	2-0
1973-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-20	1574.51	1579.06	35.77%	60.40%	+58.29	3-0
1973-10-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-26	1632.80	1293.64	79.51%	17.89%	+8.73	4-0
1973-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-31	1641.53	1596.53	65.69%	30.71%	+16.51	5-0
1973-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 24-7	1658.04	1588.89	68.67%	27.90%	+25.24	6-0
1973-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-10	1683.28	1687.34	35.84%	60.33%	-7.85	6-1
1973-11-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-15	1675.43	1606.80	45.82%	50.14%	-14.13	6-2
1973-11-11	New Orleans Saints	W 29-7	1661.30	1432.60	84.18%	13.69%	+13.91	7-2
1973-11-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-13	1675.21	1456.93	83.39%	14.39%	+13.25	8-2
1973-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1688.46	1398.33	74.71%	22.27%	+16.17	9-2
1973-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-0	1704.63	1371.43	78.96%	18.39%	+20.46	10-2
1973-12-10	New York Giants	W 40-6	1725.09	1396.73	90.26%	8.31%	+10.39	11-2
1973-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-17	1735.48	1564.78	79.40%	17.99%	+14.14	12-2
1973-09-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-13	1663.24	1578.95	70.45%	26.22%	+16.28	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-12	1679.52	1566.82	52.14%	43.83%	-25.30	1-1
1973-09-30	New England Patriots	W 44-23	1654.22	1273.27	92.56%	6.31%	+6.18	2-1
1973-10-07	New York Jets	W 31-3	1660.40	1508.69	77.63%	19.60%	+22.65	3-1
1973-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-9	1683.05	1559.63	53.67%	42.33%	+26.17	4-1
1973-10-21	Buffalo Bills	W 27-6	1709.22	1458.69	85.73%	12.31%	+12.19	5-1
1973-10-28	@ New England Patriots	W 30-14	1721.41	1317.69	84.74%	13.19%	+11.42	6-1
1973-11-04	@ New York Jets	W 24-14	1732.83	1437.16	75.29%	21.74%	+15.05	7-1
1973-11-11	Baltimore Colts	W 44-0	1747.88	1315.05	94.33%	4.78%	+6.74	8-1
1973-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-0	1754.62	1421.98	78.91%	18.43%	+16.58	9-1
1973-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-7	1771.20	1628.94	56.32%	39.73%	+23.01	10-1
1973-12-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-26	1794.21	1656.89	76.21%	20.90%	+9.14	11-1
1973-12-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-16	1803.35	1269.16	92.00%	6.80%	-70.05	11-2
1973-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 34-7	1733.30	1569.38	78.78%	18.55%	+21.03	12-2
1973-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 24-16	1547.04	1593.17	53.35%	42.64%	+26.35	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 22-13	1573.39	1428.72	56.66%	39.40%	+25.88	2-0
1973-09-30	Green Bay Packers	W 11-3	1599.27	1595.31	60.32%	35.85%	+22.23	3-0
1973-10-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-9	1621.50	1577.25	42.37%	53.62%	+43.48	4-0
1973-10-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1664.98	1543.56	53.38%	42.61%	+18.62	5-0
1973-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1683.60	1311.75	92.20%	6.62%	+3.74	6-0
1973-10-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-9	1687.34	1683.28	60.33%	35.84%	+7.86	7-0
1973-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-3	1695.20	1541.29	77.84%	19.41%	+20.33	8-0
1973-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1715.53	1556.83	78.29%	19.00%	+19.00	9-0
1973-11-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1734.53	1645.18	48.79%	47.16%	-25.99	9-1
1973-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 31-13	1708.54	1378.94	90.32%	8.26%	+7.51	10-1
1973-12-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-27	1716.05	1568.20	57.10%	38.97%	-64.16	10-2
1973-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-7	1651.89	1425.05	67.49%	29.00%	+31.19	11-2
1973-12-16	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1683.08	1386.34	75.40%	21.64%	+23.20	12-2
1973-09-16	Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1329.19	1414.47	47.74%	48.20%	-44.09	0-1
1973-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-10	1285.10	1494.01	31.12%	65.25%	-11.83	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-44	1273.27	1654.22	6.31%	92.56%	-6.17	0-3
1973-10-07	Baltimore Colts	W 24-16	1267.10	1408.02	39.91%	56.13%	+34.35	1-3
1973-10-14	New York Jets	L 7-9	1301.45	1486.03	34.14%	62.09%	-10.59	1-4
1973-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1290.86	1390.65	24.58%	72.22%	+26.83	2-4
1973-10-28	Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1317.69	1721.41	13.19%	84.74%	-11.43	2-5
1973-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1306.26	1368.35	28.71%	67.81%	-6.30	2-6
1973-11-11	@ New York Jets	L 13-33	1299.96	1422.11	22.34%	74.64%	-21.86	2-7
1973-11-18	Green Bay Packers	W 33-24	1278.10	1457.27	34.83%	61.37%	+39.71	3-7
1973-11-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 32-0	1317.81	1214.48	50.80%	45.16%	+55.72	4-7
1973-12-02	San Diego Chargers	W 30-14	1373.53	1299.31	69.27%	27.33%	+23.99	5-7
1973-12-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-37	1397.52	1492.24	25.11%	71.65%	-26.97	5-8
1973-12-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 13-18	1370.55	1339.21	40.58%	55.44%	-19.85	5-9
1973-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-62	1380.97	1477.62	46.11%	49.84%	-74.53	0-1
1973-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-40	1306.44	1566.99	11.71%	86.40%	-15.39	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-14	1291.05	1397.54	23.89%	72.96%	-10.47	0-3
1973-10-07	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1280.58	1470.19	33.50%	62.76%	+30.25	1-3
1973-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1310.83	1533.77	29.46%	67.01%	+38.13	2-3
1973-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-40	1348.96	1524.94	17.55%	79.88%	-24.19	2-4
1973-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 19-3	1324.77	1698.44	15.23%	82.45%	+70.28	3-4
1973-11-04	Buffalo Bills	W 13-0	1395.05	1477.85	48.10%	47.85%	+37.55	4-4
1973-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-29	1432.60	1661.30	13.69%	84.18%	-13.92	4-5
1973-11-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-17	1418.68	1291.14	54.25%	41.75%	-20.35	4-6
1973-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1398.33	1688.46	22.27%	74.71%	-16.17	4-7
1973-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-30	1382.16	1390.44	35.29%	60.90%	-34.62	4-8
1973-12-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-10	1347.54	1487.04	40.10%	55.93%	+29.65	5-8
1973-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1377.19	1540.59	18.59%	78.73%	-8.11	5-9
1973-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 34-14	1559.93	1341.37	83.41%	14.37%	+13.95	1-0
1973-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	T 23-23	1573.88	1305.10	86.93%	11.25%	-4.01	1-0
1973-09-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-12	1569.87	1526.23	42.29%	53.71%	-13.07	1-1
1973-10-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1556.80	1573.07	57.55%	38.53%	-17.59	1-2
1973-10-14	Washington Redskins	L 3-21	1539.21	1647.46	44.46%	51.50%	-41.17	1-3
1973-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-45	1498.04	1580.02	26.48%	70.19%	-23.95	1-4
1973-10-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-35	1474.09	1400.69	46.50%	49.45%	-28.65	1-5
1973-11-04	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-42	1445.44	1628.83	16.96%	80.53%	-23.94	1-6
1973-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-23	1421.50	1589.01	36.34%	59.80%	-28.73	1-7
1973-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-13	1392.77	1414.20	56.83%	39.23%	+28.48	2-7
1973-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1421.25	1339.20	47.74%	48.21%	-20.78	2-8
1973-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1400.47	1691.98	10.03%	88.30%	-3.74	2-9
1973-12-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-40	1396.73	1725.09	8.31%	90.26%	-10.39	2-10
1973-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1386.34	1683.08	21.64%	75.40%	-23.20	2-11
1973-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-23	1484.02	1574.93	25.51%	71.22%	-22.38	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-10	1461.64	1460.63	36.50%	59.64%	+63.09	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-9	1524.73	1410.93	52.30%	43.68%	-16.04	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-31	1508.69	1660.40	19.60%	77.63%	-22.66	1-3
1973-10-14	@ New England Patriots	W 9-7	1486.03	1301.45	62.09%	34.14%	+10.59	2-3
1973-10-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-26	1496.62	1663.79	18.28%	79.08%	-13.81	2-4
1973-10-28	Denver Broncos	L 28-40	1482.81	1473.14	61.08%	35.11%	-45.65	2-5
1973-11-04	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1437.16	1732.83	21.74%	75.29%	-15.05	2-6
1973-11-11	New England Patriots	W 33-13	1422.11	1299.96	74.64%	22.34%	+21.87	3-6
1973-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-20	1443.98	1537.60	25.23%	71.53%	-13.55	3-7
1973-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-28	1430.43	1671.17	27.42%	69.17%	-17.02	3-8
1973-12-02	Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1413.41	1277.12	76.10%	21.00%	+7.96	4-8
1973-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1421.37	1343.74	47.11%	48.84%	-10.26	4-9
1973-12-16	Buffalo Bills	L 14-34	1411.11	1519.22	44.48%	51.48%	-43.41	4-10
1973-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-24	1593.17	1547.04	42.64%	53.35%	-26.35	0-1
1973-09-23	Miami Dolphins	W 12-7	1566.82	1679.52	43.83%	52.14%	+25.29	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-16	1592.11	1505.84	48.35%	47.60%	-37.93	1-2
1973-10-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1554.18	1466.74	48.52%	47.43%	+27.33	2-2
1973-10-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1581.51	1423.44	58.51%	37.59%	+26.05	3-2
1973-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	T 23-23	1607.56	1472.38	55.33%	40.70%	-0.77	3-2
1973-10-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-21	1606.79	1369.88	68.72%	27.85%	+22.04	4-2
1973-11-04	New York Giants	W 42-0	1628.83	1445.44	80.53%	16.96%	+23.94	5-2
1973-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-17	1652.77	1705.92	52.35%	43.62%	-32.12	5-3
1973-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-7	1620.65	1536.95	70.39%	26.29%	-30.22	5-4
1973-11-25	San Diego Chargers	W 31-3	1590.43	1311.50	87.56%	10.69%	+12.19	6-4
1973-12-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-6	1602.62	1158.76	87.41%	10.82%	+7.73	7-4
1973-12-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-7	1610.35	1547.36	67.92%	28.60%	+34.38	8-4
1973-12-16	Denver Broncos	W 21-17	1644.73	1574.51	68.79%	27.78%	+12.20	9-4
1973-09-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-34	1338.65	1433.07	46.43%	49.52%	-33.55	0-1
1973-09-23	@ New York Giants	T 23-23	1305.10	1573.88	11.25%	86.93%	+4.01	0-1
1973-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 7-28	1309.11	1605.39	21.68%	75.35%	-21.75	0-2
1973-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 26-27	1287.36	1426.97	20.69%	76.44%	-4.52	0-3
1973-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1282.84	1439.42	19.18%	78.09%	+28.91	1-3
1973-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-28	1311.75	1683.60	6.62%	92.20%	-3.74	1-4
1973-10-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-16	1308.01	1603.97	21.72%	75.32%	+60.34	2-4
1973-11-04	New England Patriots	W 24-23	1368.35	1306.26	67.81%	28.71%	+6.31	3-4
1973-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-44	1374.66	1620.93	26.81%	69.83%	-24.26	3-5
1973-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-31	1350.40	1617.74	11.33%	86.84%	-11.20	3-6
1973-11-25	New York Giants	W 20-16	1339.20	1421.25	48.21%	47.74%	+20.78	4-6
1973-12-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1359.98	1470.79	23.46%	73.43%	-16.24	4-7
1973-12-09	New York Jets	W 24-23	1343.74	1421.37	48.84%	47.11%	+10.25	5-7
1973-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-38	1353.99	1654.11	9.61%	88.79%	-8.76	5-8
1973-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1633.46	1563.62	68.75%	27.82%	+22.84	1-0
1973-09-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-6	1656.30	1553.92	72.51%	24.31%	+27.69	2-0
1973-09-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 36-7	1683.99	1311.57	82.35%	15.32%	+17.93	3-0
1973-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 38-21	1701.92	1433.46	86.91%	11.26%	+10.02	4-0
1973-10-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-19	1711.94	1508.61	64.54%	31.80%	-48.15	4-1
1973-10-21	New York Jets	W 26-14	1663.79	1496.62	79.08%	18.28%	+13.81	5-1
1973-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1677.60	1579.00	72.09%	24.70%	+14.33	6-1
1973-11-05	Washington Redskins	W 21-16	1691.93	1628.16	68.02%	28.51%	+13.99	7-1
1973-11-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-9	1705.92	1652.77	43.62%	52.35%	+32.12	8-1
1973-11-18	Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1738.04	1529.12	82.66%	15.05%	-55.69	8-2
1973-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-21	1682.35	1567.18	52.49%	43.48%	-25.46	8-3
1973-12-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 26-30	1656.89	1794.21	20.90%	76.21%	-9.14	8-4
1973-12-09	Houston Oilers	W 33-7	1647.75	1151.03	95.98%	3.38%	+3.64	9-4
1973-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 37-14	1651.39	1457.40	63.33%	32.95%	+34.68	10-4
1973-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-38	1441.21	1616.30	17.63%	79.80%	-23.68	0-1
1973-09-23	Buffalo Bills	W 34-7	1417.53	1458.56	54.08%	41.92%	+47.62	1-1
1973-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1465.15	1497.24	55.34%	40.69%	-31.69	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-38	1433.46	1701.92	11.26%	86.91%	-10.02	1-3
1973-10-14	Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1423.44	1581.51	37.59%	58.51%	-26.05	1-4
1973-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-41	1397.39	1495.57	45.89%	50.06%	-64.06	1-5
1973-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 16-16	1333.33	1544.90	14.86%	82.87%	+3.61	1-5
1973-11-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-19	1336.94	1499.23	37.03%	59.09%	-35.38	1-6
1973-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-30	1301.56	1518.71	14.47%	83.31%	-10.42	1-7
1973-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 17-14	1291.14	1418.68	41.75%	54.25%	+20.36	2-7
1973-11-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-31	1311.50	1590.43	10.69%	87.56%	-12.19	2-8
1973-12-02	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1299.31	1373.53	27.33%	69.27%	-23.99	2-9
1973-12-09	Denver Broncos	L 28-42	1275.32	1555.45	23.26%	73.65%	-19.07	2-10
1973-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-33	1256.25	1512.98	11.94%	86.15%	-13.40	2-11
1973-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-21	1578.95	1663.24	26.22%	70.45%	-16.27	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 36-34	1562.68	1517.22	42.54%	53.45%	+16.38	1-1
1973-09-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-40	1579.06	1574.51	60.40%	35.77%	-58.29	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-9	1520.77	1469.08	43.42%	52.56%	+22.79	2-2
1973-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-17	1543.56	1664.98	42.61%	53.38%	-18.62	2-3
1973-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 40-0	1524.94	1348.96	79.88%	17.55%	+24.20	3-3
1973-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1549.14	1559.63	58.34%	37.76%	-47.17	3-4
1973-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1501.97	1534.46	32.23%	64.09%	-22.37	3-5
1973-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-33	1479.60	1614.17	21.16%	75.93%	-22.67	3-6
1973-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-31	1456.93	1675.21	14.39%	83.39%	-13.25	3-7
1973-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 20-6	1443.68	1417.55	63.26%	33.02%	+27.11	4-7
1973-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-28	1470.79	1359.98	73.43%	23.46%	+16.25	5-7
1973-12-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-16	1487.04	1347.54	55.93%	40.10%	-29.64	5-8
1973-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-37	1457.40	1651.39	32.95%	63.33%	-34.69	5-9
1973-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-23	1433.07	1338.65	49.52%	46.43%	+33.56	1-0
1973-09-23	Washington Redskins	W 34-27	1466.63	1639.98	35.58%	60.59%	+34.59	2-0
1973-09-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-45	1501.22	1582.38	26.57%	70.09%	-34.48	2-1
1973-10-07	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1466.74	1554.18	47.43%	48.52%	-27.32	2-2
1973-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1439.42	1282.84	78.09%	19.18%	-28.91	2-3
1973-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-31	1410.51	1688.62	10.73%	87.51%	-9.82	2-4
1973-10-28	New York Giants	W 35-27	1400.69	1474.09	49.45%	46.50%	+28.66	3-4
1973-11-04	Denver Broncos	T 17-17	1429.35	1518.80	47.14%	48.80%	+0.09	3-4
1973-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-25	1429.44	1442.03	34.73%	61.48%	-15.24	3-5
1973-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 13-24	1414.20	1392.77	39.23%	56.83%	-28.49	3-6
1973-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-42	1385.71	1551.15	18.42%	78.92%	-17.05	3-7
1973-12-02	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1368.66	1533.57	36.69%	59.45%	-16.08	3-8
1973-12-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 32-10	1352.58	1627.50	10.91%	87.31%	+86.90	4-8
1973-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-30	1439.48	1691.62	26.17%	70.51%	-29.83	4-9
1973-09-16	San Diego Chargers	W 38-0	1616.30	1441.21	79.80%	17.63%	+23.68	1-0
1973-09-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-34	1639.98	1466.63	60.59%	35.58%	-34.59	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-7	1605.39	1309.11	75.35%	21.68%	+21.74	2-1
1973-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 14-7	1627.13	1616.86	61.16%	35.03%	+20.33	3-1
1973-10-14	@ New York Giants	W 21-3	1647.46	1539.21	51.50%	44.46%	+41.16	4-1
1973-10-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-13	1688.62	1410.51	87.51%	10.73%	+9.82	5-1
1973-10-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-19	1698.44	1324.77	82.45%	15.23%	-70.28	5-2
1973-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-21	1628.16	1691.93	28.51%	68.02%	-13.99	5-3
1973-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-9	1614.17	1479.60	75.93%	21.16%	+22.66	6-3
1973-11-18	Baltimore Colts	W 22-14	1636.83	1308.31	90.27%	8.31%	+5.04	7-3
1973-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1641.87	1583.68	44.33%	51.63%	+50.11	8-3
1973-12-02	New York Giants	W 27-24	1691.98	1400.47	88.30%	10.03%	+3.74	9-3
1973-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1695.72	1650.01	42.58%	53.41%	-41.61	9-4
1973-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-20	1654.11	1353.99	88.79%	9.61%	+8.76	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1973-12-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-34	1663.60	1754.33	26.82%	73.18%	-23.75	0-1
1973-12-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-16	1721.45	1749.62	57.92%	42.08%	+29.14	1-0
1973-12-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1750.59	1724.23	65.33%	34.67%	-56.24	1-1
1973-12-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-27	1749.62	1721.45	42.08%	57.92%	-29.14	0-1
1973-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-16	1754.33	1663.60	73.18%	26.82%	+23.76	1-0
1973-12-30	Oakland Raiders	W 27-10	1778.09	1695.35	72.27%	27.73%	+23.87	2-0
1974-01-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1801.96	1780.46	53.09%	46.91%	+40.39	3-0
1973-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1706.28	1662.87	67.51%	32.49%	+17.95	1-0
1973-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-10	1724.23	1750.59	34.67%	65.33%	+56.23	2-0
1974-01-13	Miami Dolphins	L 7-24	1780.46	1801.96	46.91%	53.09%	-40.38	2-1
1973-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-14	1656.93	1686.07	57.78%	42.22%	+38.42	1-0
1973-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1695.35	1778.09	27.73%	72.27%	-23.87	1-1
1973-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-33	1686.07	1656.93	42.22%	57.78%	-38.42	0-1
1973-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1662.87	1706.28	32.49%	67.51%	-17.94	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1973-12-09	6.80%	@ Baltimore Colts	1269.16	16	Miami Dolphins	1803.35	3
2	1973-12-09	10.91%	St. Louis Cardinals	1352.58	32	@ Atlanta Falcons	1627.50	10
3	1973-12-02	11.94%	Buffalo Bills	1431.55	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1688.19	6
4	1973-11-18	15.05%	Denver Broncos	1529.12	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1738.04	13
5	1973-10-28	15.23%	@ New Orleans Saints	1324.77	19	Washington Redskins	1698.44	3
6	1973-10-14	19.18%	Philadelphia Eagles	1282.84	27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1439.42	24
7	1973-10-21	19.83%	Baltimore Colts	1346.48	29	@ Detroit Lions	1495.63	27
8	1973-11-04	20.51%	Houston Oilers	1206.29	31	@ Baltimore Colts	1347.84	27
9	1973-10-28	21.72%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1308.01	30	Dallas Cowboys	1603.97	16
10	1973-11-04	22.88%	Chicago Bears	1384.84	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1501.41	17
11	1973-10-21	24.58%	New England Patriots	1290.86	13	@ Chicago Bears	1390.65	10
12	1973-09-30	24.77%	Chicago Bears	1402.85	33	@ Denver Broncos	1500.84	14
13	1973-11-18	26.29%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1536.95	7	@ Oakland Raiders	1620.65	3
14	1973-09-16	28.95%	Los Angeles Rams	1479.96	23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1539.95	13
15	1973-10-14	29.46%	@ New Orleans Saints	1310.83	20	Detroit Lions	1533.77	13
16	1973-10-14	31.80%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1508.61	19	Pittsburgh Steelers	1711.94	7
17	1973-10-07	33.50%	@ New Orleans Saints	1280.58	21	Chicago Bears	1470.19	16
18	1973-12-30 *	34.67%	Minnesota Vikings	1724.23	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1750.59	10
19	1973-11-18	34.83%	@ New England Patriots	1278.10	33	Green Bay Packers	1457.27	24
20	1973-10-28	35.11%	Denver Broncos	1473.14	40	@ New York Jets	1482.81	28
21	1973-09-23	35.58%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1466.63	34	Washington Redskins	1639.98	27
22	1973-09-30	35.77%	Los Angeles Rams	1574.51	40	@ San Francisco 49ers	1579.06	20
23	1973-09-23	36.50%	New York Jets	1461.64	34	@ Baltimore Colts	1460.63	10
24	1973-12-02	37.21%	Dallas Cowboys	1605.94	22	@ Denver Broncos	1599.53	10
25	1973-10-28	37.76%	Atlanta Falcons	1559.63	17	@ San Francisco 49ers	1549.14	3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1973-12-09	86.91	St. Louis Cardinals	32	1352.58	10.91%	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1627.50	87.31%
2	1973-09-16	74.53	Atlanta Falcons	62	1477.62	49.84%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1380.97	46.11%
3	1973-10-28	70.28	@ New Orleans Saints	19	1324.77	15.23%	Washington Redskins	3	1698.44	82.45%
4	1973-12-09	70.05	@ Baltimore Colts	16	1269.16	6.80%	Miami Dolphins	3	1803.35	92.00%
5	1973-09-30	67.34	Chicago Bears	33	1402.85	24.77%	@ Denver Broncos	14	1500.84	72.02%
6	1973-12-02	64.16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1568.20	38.97%	Minnesota Vikings	0	1716.05	57.10%
7	1973-10-21	64.06	Atlanta Falcons	41	1495.57	50.06%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1397.39	45.89%
8	1973-09-23	63.09	New York Jets	34	1461.64	36.50%	@ Baltimore Colts	10	1460.63	59.64%
9	1973-10-28	62.23	@ Detroit Lions	34	1472.23	46.86%	Green Bay Packers	0	1563.64	49.09%
10	1973-12-02	60.69	Buffalo Bills	17	1431.55	11.94%	@ Atlanta Falcons	6	1688.19	86.14%
11	1973-10-28	60.35	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1308.01	21.72%	Dallas Cowboys	16	1603.97	75.32%
12	1973-11-04	59.38	Chicago Bears	31	1384.84	22.88%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1501.41	74.05%
13	1973-09-30	58.29	Los Angeles Rams	40	1574.51	35.77%	@ San Francisco 49ers	20	1579.06	60.40%
14	1973-12-30 *	56.24	Minnesota Vikings	27	1724.23	34.67%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1750.59	65.33%
15	1973-11-25	55.72	New England Patriots	32	1317.81	50.80%	@ Houston Oilers	0	1214.48	45.16%
16	1973-11-18	55.70	Denver Broncos	23	1529.12	15.05%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1738.04	82.66%
17	1973-12-16	50.74	Green Bay Packers	21	1393.87	44.96%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1331.25	51.00%
18	1973-11-22	50.11	Washington Redskins	20	1641.87	44.33%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1583.68	51.63%
19	1973-10-14	49.29	@ Atlanta Falcons	46	1446.28	60.64%	Chicago Bears	6	1439.94	35.54%
20	1973-09-23	48.61	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1525.90	56.16%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1552.15	39.89%
21	1973-10-14	48.15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	19	1508.61	31.80%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1711.94	64.54%
22	1973-09-23	47.63	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1417.53	54.08%	Buffalo Bills	7	1458.56	41.92%
23	1973-10-28	47.17	Atlanta Falcons	17	1559.63	37.76%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1549.14	58.34%
24	1973-10-14	46.17	Denver Broncos	48	1426.21	56.19%	@ Houston Oilers	20	1284.92	39.86%
25	1973-09-16	45.94	Los Angeles Rams	23	1479.96	28.95%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	13	1539.95	67.55%