1973 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Miami Dolphins

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1972

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1969

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Rams

2.76 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.24 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

3.51 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.01 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	4	0	.714	—	286	231	+55	7.61	+2.39
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	—	347	210	+137	9.53	+0.47
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	5	2	.571	2	234	255	-21	6.92	+1.08
4	Houston Oilers	1	13	0	.071	9	199	447	-248	2.99	-1.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	12	2	.857	—	343	150	+193	10.64	+1.36
2	Buffalo Bills	9	5	.643	3	259	230	+29	6.55	+2.45
3	New England Patriots	5	9	.357	7	258	300	-42	5.02	-0.02
4	Baltimore Colts	4	10	.286	8	226	341	-115	5.52	-1.52
5	New York Jets	4	10	.286	8	240	306	-66	6.20	-2.20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	9	4	1	.679	—	292	175	+117	8.89	+0.61
2	Denver Broncos	7	5	2	.571	1.5	354	296	+58	7.23	+0.77
3	Kansas City Chiefs	7	5	2	.571	1.5	231	192	+39	8.17	-0.17
4	San Diego Chargers	2	11	1	.179	7	188	386	-198	4.43	-1.93

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	0	.857	—	296	168	+128	9.25	+2.75
2	Detroit Lions	6	7	1	.464	5.5	271	247	+24	7.33	-0.83
3	Green Bay Packers	5	7	2	.429	6	202	259	-57	7.38	-1.38
4	Chicago Bears	3	11	0	.214	9	195	334	-139	5.70	-2.70

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	10	4	0	.714	—	325	198	+127	9.65	+0.35
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	—	382	203	+179	8.53	+1.47
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	8	1	.393	4.5	310	393	-83	4.30	+1.20
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	5.5	286	365	-79	5.40	-0.90
5	New York Giants	2	11	1	.179	7.5	226	362	-136	6.01	-3.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	2	.857	—	388	178	+210	9.24	+2.76
2	Atlanta Falcons	9	5	.643	3	318	224	+94	8.30	+0.70
3	New Orleans Saints	5	9	.357	7	163	312	-149	4.41	+0.59
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	7	262	319	-57	6.77	-1.77

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Dec 22

Miami Dolphins 34

Cincinnati Bengals 16

Dec 23

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 27

Oakland Raiders 10

Dec 30

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 27

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 22

Dallas Cowboys 27

Los Angeles Rams 16

Dec 23

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 27

Dallas Cowboys 10

Dec 30

Super Bowl

Miami Dolphins 24

Minnesota Vikings 7

Jan 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1744	12	10.64	+1.36	92.44%	5	8	9	10	11	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1738	12	9.24	+2.76	98.88%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1711	10	8.53	+1.47	90.59%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1698	12	9.25	+2.75	98.51%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1675	10	9.53	+0.47	77.39%	3	7	8	9	10	12	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1659	10	9.65	+0.35	75.49%	2	7	8	9	10	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1649	10	7.61	+2.39	96.98%	1	5	6	7	9	10	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1648	9.5	8.89	+0.61	68.79%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1556	8	7.23	+0.77	81.50%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1554	9	6.55	+2.45	97.26%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1551	9	8.30	+0.70	80.14%	2	5	7	8	9	11	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1546	6.5	7.33	-0.83	37.44%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1543	8	6.92	+1.08	87.13%	1	4	6	7	8	9	13
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1528	8	8.17	-0.17	63.50%	2	5	7	8	9	11	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1448	6	7.38	-1.38	37.33%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1430	5	6.77	-1.77	28.57%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1412	4.5	5.40	-0.90	36.41%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1376	4	6.20	-2.20	20.16%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1374	5	4.41	+0.59	80.27%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1369	4	5.52	-1.52	32.85%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1369	2.5	6.01	-3.51	2.06%	1	3	5	6	7	8	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1358	5	5.02	-0.02	67.82%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1355	5.5	4.30	+1.20	83.04%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1293	3	5.70	-2.70	12.17%	0	3	4	5	7	8	11
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1255	2.5	4.43	-1.93	15.69%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1162	1	2.99	-1.99	20.35%	0	1	2	3	4	5	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-3 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-2 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	0-2-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Rams	12	9.24	+2.76
2	Minnesota Vikings	12	9.25	+2.75
3	Buffalo Bills	9	6.55	+2.45
4	Cincinnati Bengals	10	7.61	+2.39
5	Dallas Cowboys	10	8.53	+1.47

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	2.5	6.01	-3.51
2	Chicago Bears	3	5.70	-2.70
3	New York Jets	4	6.20	-2.20
4	Houston Oilers	1	2.99	-1.99
5	San Diego Chargers	2.5	4.43	-1.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Vikings	9	Sep 16 – Nov 11	1 in 80
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	Oct 14 – Nov 25	1 in 79
3	Buffalo Bills	4	Nov 25 – Dec 16	1 in 48
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	Sep 16 – Oct 21	1 in 48
5	Baltimore Colts	2	Dec 9 – Dec 16	1 in 23

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	7	Sep 30 – Nov 11	1 in 54
2	Detroit Lions	3	Oct 7 – Oct 21	1 in 36
3	Baltimore Colts	6	Oct 28 – Dec 2	1 in 27
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 18 – Dec 3	1 in 19
5	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Sep 30 – Oct 21	1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	70.61%	22.29%	6.87%	0.23%
Cincinnati Bengals	18.59%	44.10%	35.18%	2.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.76%	33.05%	51.90%	4.29%
Houston Oilers	0.04%	0.56%	6.05%	93.35%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	91.65%	6.83%	1.31%	0.16%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	3.89%	36.31%	27.01%	20.46%	12.33%
New York Jets	2.96%	29.05%	29.30%	22.88%	15.81%
Baltimore Colts	0.90%	16.72%	23.97%	29.78%	28.63%
New England Patriots	0.60%	11.09%	18.41%	26.72%	43.18%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	51.51%	29.81%	16.31%	2.37%
Kansas City Chiefs	32.10%	37.07%	25.85%	4.98%
Denver Broncos	15.60%	29.52%	44.37%	10.51%
San Diego Chargers	0.79%	3.60%	13.47%	82.14%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	63.22%	23.71%	10.08%	2.99%
Green Bay Packers	18.15%	32.29%	31.11%	18.45%
Detroit Lions	15.50%	32.36%	33.16%	18.98%
Chicago Bears	3.13%	11.64%	25.65%	59.58%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	62.83%	29.33%	6.24%	1.35%	0.25%
Dallas Cowboys	32.00%	46.48%	15.20%	5.11%	1.21%
New York Giants	3.24%	13.59%	38.05%	29.69%	15.43%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.69%	8.31%	28.34%	36.02%	25.64%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.24%	2.29%	12.17%	27.83%	57.47%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	58.31%	29.77%	10.57%	1.35%
Atlanta Falcons	31.15%	41.32%	23.33%	4.20%
San Francisco 49ers	9.68%	24.85%	50.12%	15.35%
New Orleans Saints	0.86%	4.06%	15.98%	79.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Miami Dolphins	52.64%	23.68%	12.05%	5.23%	2.76%	1.89%	0.94%	0.44%	0.28%	0.07%	0.02%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.00%	26.35%	20.93%	12.66%	7.65%	4.98%	3.59%	1.96%	1.11%	0.52%	0.17%	0.08%	—
Oakland Raiders	13.53%	18.38%	18.44%	14.56%	10.71%	8.37%	6.73%	4.34%	2.68%	1.32%	0.63%	0.22%	0.09%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.34%	11.85%	14.80%	15.04%	13.80%	11.58%	8.73%	7.18%	5.74%	3.22%	1.82%	0.76%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.04%	7.21%	10.73%	13.33%	13.43%	12.86%	11.91%	10.08%	8.41%	4.72%	2.47%	1.40%	0.41%
Denver Broncos	1.96%	5.03%	8.39%	11.09%	12.09%	12.21%	13.12%	11.83%	10.68%	6.26%	4.38%	2.28%	0.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.85%	3.31%	5.98%	9.42%	11.22%	12.36%	12.98%	13.77%	12.78%	7.89%	5.14%	2.37%	0.93%
Buffalo Bills	0.77%	1.98%	3.96%	7.98%	10.20%	11.95%	11.50%	11.87%	11.27%	11.08%	8.81%	5.81%	2.82%
New York Jets	0.63%	1.50%	2.67%	5.38%	8.97%	9.87%	11.23%	12.04%	13.28%	13.53%	10.20%	7.11%	3.59%
Baltimore Colts	0.15%	0.34%	0.97%	2.74%	4.94%	6.35%	8.34%	10.66%	12.99%	16.76%	15.43%	13.29%	7.04%
New England Patriots	0.07%	0.22%	0.70%	1.60%	2.82%	4.80%	6.58%	8.81%	9.82%	15.46%	16.21%	18.70%	14.21%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.14%	0.37%	0.91%	1.30%	2.40%	3.73%	5.70%	8.34%	14.07%	23.18%	23.81%	16.03%
Houston Oilers	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.11%	0.38%	0.62%	1.32%	2.62%	5.10%	11.54%	24.17%	54.06%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Washington Redskins	27.31%	22.19%	16.36%	12.13%	8.32%	5.80%	3.26%	2.11%	1.27%	0.67%	0.33%	0.17%	0.08%
Los Angeles Rams	20.98%	18.37%	16.82%	13.13%	9.99%	7.92%	5.14%	3.72%	1.98%	1.09%	0.54%	0.22%	0.10%
Minnesota Vikings	21.01%	19.89%	16.03%	12.35%	9.92%	7.33%	5.37%	3.48%	2.28%	1.36%	0.67%	0.22%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	11.59%	12.43%	12.87%	14.11%	13.37%	11.92%	8.17%	5.57%	4.55%	2.48%	1.66%	0.79%	0.49%
Atlanta Falcons	9.22%	10.47%	12.98%	12.75%	12.99%	12.44%	9.29%	7.61%	5.50%	3.16%	2.10%	1.12%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	3.62%	5.62%	8.15%	9.80%	11.09%	11.73%	11.65%	10.19%	9.93%	7.35%	5.90%	3.28%	1.69%
Detroit Lions	3.29%	4.92%	7.21%	10.16%	11.28%	11.63%	12.64%	10.96%	9.88%	7.92%	5.53%	3.18%	1.40%
San Francisco 49ers	1.88%	3.29%	4.55%	6.65%	8.76%	10.25%	12.57%	13.79%	13.16%	10.07%	7.21%	5.34%	2.48%
New York Giants	0.43%	1.14%	1.95%	3.42%	5.32%	6.77%	10.02%	13.05%	13.84%	13.45%	12.74%	9.95%	7.92%
Chicago Bears	0.35%	0.84%	1.53%	2.72%	3.96%	5.82%	8.55%	10.11%	12.19%	16.16%	17.21%	13.35%	7.21%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.27%	0.61%	1.01%	1.78%	3.09%	4.91%	7.26%	9.97%	11.65%	14.03%	15.80%	14.28%	15.34%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.19%	0.35%	0.66%	1.20%	1.90%	3.45%	5.18%	7.16%	11.22%	16.20%	26.48%	25.97%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.04%	0.19%	0.34%	0.71%	1.58%	2.63%	4.26%	6.61%	11.04%	14.11%	21.62%	36.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Miami Dolphins	33.73%	19.38%	13.02%	9.71%	6.29%	5.18%	3.20%	2.39%	1.90%	1.36%	1.07%	0.82%	0.57%	0.58%	0.25%	0.16%	0.19%	0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.01%	—	—	—
Washington Redskins	12.09%	14.25%	11.46%	11.29%	9.27%	8.54%	6.64%	5.75%	4.58%	3.67%	2.91%	2.30%	1.85%	1.49%	1.06%	0.84%	0.60%	0.40%	0.38%	0.21%	0.13%	0.14%	0.09%	0.06%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.05%	11.45%	12.46%	10.57%	10.14%	8.44%	6.92%	6.20%	4.56%	3.75%	3.01%	2.51%	1.90%	1.91%	1.04%	0.99%	0.65%	0.57%	0.33%	0.27%	0.13%	0.07%	0.04%	0.04%	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	9.07%	11.15%	10.57%	9.83%	8.95%	8.07%	6.90%	5.85%	5.69%	4.42%	4.02%	2.91%	2.94%	2.25%	2.03%	1.45%	1.09%	0.92%	0.69%	0.49%	0.33%	0.12%	0.18%	0.06%	0.02%	—
Los Angeles Rams	8.59%	11.08%	9.75%	10.12%	8.92%	8.86%	7.13%	5.88%	5.47%	4.64%	4.66%	3.40%	2.76%	1.99%	1.89%	1.53%	0.98%	0.81%	0.44%	0.46%	0.34%	0.13%	0.02%	0.09%	0.05%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	7.28%	7.65%	8.92%	8.72%	8.10%	8.24%	7.47%	6.68%	5.52%	5.60%	4.40%	4.51%	3.62%	3.09%	2.40%	2.24%	1.68%	1.35%	0.82%	0.57%	0.46%	0.30%	0.18%	0.13%	0.04%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	4.84%	6.02%	6.79%	6.67%	7.43%	6.66%	7.11%	7.03%	7.11%	6.37%	6.37%	4.83%	4.21%	3.70%	3.37%	2.69%	2.39%	1.72%	1.30%	0.93%	0.86%	0.64%	0.43%	0.28%	0.16%	0.09%
Atlanta Falcons	3.33%	4.97%	5.56%	6.28%	6.52%	6.71%	7.38%	6.74%	7.05%	6.28%	6.35%	5.24%	4.76%	4.34%	4.05%	3.18%	2.84%	2.25%	1.92%	1.18%	1.08%	0.76%	0.62%	0.35%	0.19%	0.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.49%	3.86%	5.25%	6.11%	6.61%	7.12%	7.08%	7.70%	6.48%	6.39%	6.03%	5.81%	5.00%	4.40%	3.69%	3.53%	2.82%	2.85%	2.32%	1.42%	1.18%	0.79%	0.55%	0.36%	0.13%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.55%	1.64%	3.53%	3.86%	4.97%	5.56%	5.92%	5.98%	5.97%	6.74%	6.35%	6.34%	6.10%	5.74%	5.34%	5.38%	4.36%	3.57%	3.04%	2.80%	1.65%	1.37%	1.07%	0.65%	0.35%	0.17%
Green Bay Packers	1.07%	2.02%	2.75%	3.31%	4.41%	4.44%	4.79%	5.40%	6.56%	5.41%	6.09%	5.55%	6.06%	5.27%	5.52%	4.96%	5.27%	4.09%	3.91%	3.47%	3.19%	2.25%	1.66%	1.22%	1.02%	0.31%
Detroit Lions	1.09%	1.78%	2.34%	2.86%	3.49%	4.20%	6.00%	5.12%	5.93%	5.68%	6.00%	6.18%	6.56%	5.62%	5.93%	4.99%	5.12%	4.64%	4.24%	3.12%	3.04%	2.17%	1.85%	1.10%	0.69%	0.26%
Denver Broncos	0.81%	1.30%	2.15%	2.93%	3.55%	4.28%	4.98%	5.20%	5.38%	6.17%	5.97%	6.52%	6.19%	6.25%	5.83%	6.22%	5.10%	5.07%	3.82%	3.36%	2.58%	2.34%	1.74%	1.25%	0.63%	0.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.60%	1.09%	1.25%	1.85%	2.52%	3.24%	3.87%	4.75%	4.86%	6.00%	5.25%	6.70%	6.46%	6.92%	6.26%	6.95%	5.80%	5.86%	4.40%	4.89%	3.15%	2.84%	1.97%	1.44%	0.64%	0.44%
San Francisco 49ers	0.63%	1.03%	1.36%	1.77%	2.45%	2.55%	3.52%	3.91%	4.75%	4.93%	5.28%	5.29%	6.34%	6.01%	6.57%	6.34%	6.55%	6.52%	5.37%	4.82%	3.89%	3.44%	2.58%	2.06%	1.37%	0.67%
Buffalo Bills	0.32%	0.39%	0.95%	1.13%	1.78%	2.14%	3.28%	4.13%	3.75%	5.41%	5.09%	6.14%	5.62%	6.55%	5.56%	6.09%	5.89%	5.96%	5.32%	5.39%	5.20%	4.20%	3.29%	3.15%	1.94%	1.33%
New York Jets	0.20%	0.35%	0.56%	0.96%	1.23%	1.58%	1.88%	2.91%	3.41%	4.18%	4.33%	5.21%	4.89%	5.97%	6.04%	6.42%	6.33%	6.74%	6.79%	6.88%	5.68%	5.24%	3.94%	3.81%	2.69%	1.78%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.20%	0.44%	0.61%	1.02%	1.21%	1.73%	2.04%	2.85%	2.96%	3.80%	4.36%	5.02%	5.11%	5.85%	6.71%	7.00%	6.95%	6.83%	6.96%	6.50%	6.42%	5.39%	4.22%	3.91%	1.83%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.20%	0.33%	0.46%	0.75%	0.99%	1.16%	1.77%	1.93%	2.32%	3.09%	3.39%	4.09%	5.04%	5.29%	5.38%	6.26%	6.68%	7.46%	8.30%	8.54%	7.28%	7.07%	5.55%	4.43%	2.19%
Baltimore Colts	0.03%	0.08%	0.15%	0.23%	0.48%	0.44%	0.87%	1.51%	1.99%	2.31%	2.28%	3.58%	3.80%	4.45%	4.99%	5.64%	6.33%	6.83%	7.50%	8.01%	8.24%	7.83%	7.88%	6.21%	4.82%	3.52%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.05%	0.06%	0.31%	0.31%	0.62%	0.51%	1.13%	1.05%	1.45%	2.04%	2.71%	2.49%	3.62%	4.20%	5.24%	4.56%	6.01%	6.06%	7.23%	7.65%	7.85%	7.77%	8.29%	7.08%	7.26%	4.45%
New England Patriots	0.03%	—	0.06%	0.20%	0.24%	0.42%	0.56%	0.89%	1.01%	1.44%	1.92%	2.69%	2.81%	3.20%	3.88%	4.63%	4.82%	5.96%	6.61%	7.23%	7.53%	8.93%	8.89%	9.58%	8.52%	7.95%
San Diego Chargers	—	0.03%	0.01%	0.08%	0.08%	0.23%	0.16%	0.43%	0.68%	0.74%	0.92%	1.24%	1.55%	1.96%	2.70%	3.03%	3.74%	4.25%	6.02%	7.35%	8.38%	11.30%	10.22%	12.45%	11.48%	10.97%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.10%	0.13%	0.24%	0.26%	0.41%	0.65%	0.68%	1.10%	1.04%	1.64%	1.90%	2.64%	2.98%	3.76%	4.42%	5.61%	5.97%	8.14%	9.31%	12.12%	12.63%	13.32%	10.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.15%	0.06%	0.25%	0.44%	0.45%	0.86%	0.85%	1.45%	1.68%	2.16%	2.47%	3.40%	4.01%	5.50%	5.63%	7.85%	8.81%	11.42%	12.54%	17.44%	12.49%
Houston Oilers	—	—	—	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	0.14%	0.10%	0.19%	0.38%	0.42%	0.64%	1.02%	1.42%	2.09%	2.62%	4.07%	5.55%	8.50%	13.69%	18.90%	40.13%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	52.64%	24.41%	14.60%	2.83%	5.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.00%	26.79%	23.82%	10.57%	18.82%
Oakland Raiders	13.53%	18.76%	19.22%	13.81%	34.68%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.34%	11.76%	15.00%	14.86%	53.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.04%	7.00%	8.55%	15.45%	65.96%
Denver Broncos	1.96%	5.04%	8.60%	10.60%	73.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.85%	3.18%	5.73%	9.54%	79.70%
Buffalo Bills	0.77%	1.43%	1.69%	10.09%	86.02%
New York Jets	0.63%	1.08%	1.25%	6.72%	90.32%
Baltimore Colts	0.15%	0.25%	0.50%	2.99%	96.11%
New England Patriots	0.07%	0.16%	0.37%	1.81%	97.59%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.13%	0.64%	0.70%	98.51%
Houston Oilers	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	99.93%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Washington Redskins	27.31%	21.62%	13.90%	14.72%	22.45%
Minnesota Vikings	21.01%	21.24%	20.97%	8.28%	28.50%
Los Angeles Rams	20.98%	18.72%	18.61%	11.78%	29.91%
Dallas Cowboys	11.59%	11.39%	9.02%	17.53%	50.47%
Atlanta Falcons	9.22%	10.33%	11.60%	14.04%	54.81%
Green Bay Packers	3.62%	5.82%	8.71%	8.96%	72.89%
Detroit Lions	3.29%	4.84%	7.37%	9.99%	74.51%
San Francisco 49ers	1.88%	3.18%	4.62%	6.36%	83.96%
New York Giants	0.43%	1.16%	1.65%	3.26%	93.50%
Chicago Bears	0.35%	0.85%	1.93%	2.46%	94.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.27%	0.59%	0.83%	1.75%	96.56%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.20%	0.62%	0.58%	98.56%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.06%	0.17%	0.29%	99.47%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	94.48%	66.76%	46.33%	26.46%
Los Angeles Rams	70.09%	41.18%	26.96%	15.24%
Minnesota Vikings	71.50%	45.48%	23.49%	12.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	81.18%	40.06%	21.67%	11.14%
Washington Redskins	77.55%	44.65%	22.64%	10.58%
Dallas Cowboys	49.53%	29.24%	16.31%	8.27%
Oakland Raiders	65.32%	37.00%	15.14%	6.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	34.04%	14.64%	5.96%	2.87%
Atlanta Falcons	45.19%	15.33%	5.39%	1.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	46.96%	17.89%	4.73%	1.30%
Detroit Lions	25.49%	10.01%	2.76%	0.77%
Denver Broncos	26.20%	9.39%	2.50%	0.73%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	20.30%	6.24%	1.92%	0.69%
Buffalo Bills	13.98%	5.00%	1.30%	0.55%
Green Bay Packers	27.11%	7.79%	1.45%	0.39%
San Francisco 49ers	16.04%	3.18%	0.60%	0.15%
New York Jets	9.68%	1.77%	0.27%	0.07%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.44%	0.79%	0.07%	0.05%
Baltimore Colts	3.89%	0.66%	0.10%	0.03%
New York Giants	6.50%	1.19%	0.23%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	5.59%	0.83%	0.05%	—
Houston Oilers	0.07%	—	—	—
New Orleans Saints	1.44%	0.22%	0.04%	—
Philadelphia Eagles	0.53%	0.11%	0.01%	—
San Diego Chargers	1.49%	0.20%	0.01%	—
New England Patriots	2.41%	0.39%	0.07%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			0.02%		0.08%		0.17%				0.29%	0.06%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills			0.12%	0.22%	0.86%		1.53%				1.67%	0.55%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.14%	0.27%			1.84%		4.18%	3.54%	0.06%	0.23%	4.28%		0.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.07%	0.24%			0.94%		1.74%	1.25%	0.06%	0.18%	1.67%		0.09%
Denver Broncos	0.41%	1.09%	1.61%	1.34%		0.01%		1.80%	0.21%	0.63%		2.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.03%	1.66%	2.76%	2.45%		0.02%		2.63%	0.54%	2.25%		4.55%
Miami Dolphins			7.40%	4.77%	8.60%	0.03%	11.86%				10.37%	23.04%	0.69%
New England Patriots			0.02%		0.05%		0.14%				0.10%	0.06%	0.02%
New York Jets			0.12%	0.11%	0.17%		0.59%				0.53%	0.18%	0.07%
Oakland Raiders	1.20%	4.42%	7.34%	5.14%		0.01%		4.20%	0.93%	3.41%		10.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.35%	1.24%			4.27%		8.86%	14.28%	0.21%	1.21%	9.41%		0.23%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%				0.02%	0.01%			0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.64%	2.32%	1.52%	2.36%		3.20%		0.52%	0.03%		0.21%	4.53%
Chicago Bears	0.19%		0.10%			0.04%		0.01%	0.10%	0.01%	0.11%	0.06%	0.21%
Dallas Cowboys	5.21%	1.10%		3.90%	4.31%	6.19%	6.23%	0.18%			2.12%
Detroit Lions	2.36%		1.50%			1.46%		0.12%	0.64%	0.04%	1.09%	0.32%	2.48%
Green Bay Packers	1.96%		1.00%			1.19%		0.09%	0.56%	0.05%	0.97%	0.21%	1.76%
Los Angeles Rams		0.80%	7.35%	3.10%	4.41%		9.13%		1.15%	0.11%		0.64%	14.49%
Minnesota Vikings	10.51%		7.63%			9.74%		0.53%	2.14%	0.18%	4.77%	1.12%	8.86%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.11%		0.04%					0.01%	0.02%
New York Giants	0.18%	0.14%		0.25%	0.24%	0.08%	0.20%	0.01%			0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.02%		0.03%	0.03%		0.02%
San Francisco 49ers		0.16%	0.37%	0.38%	0.79%		0.65%		0.20%			0.08%	0.55%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.07%	0.08%		0.14%	0.15%	0.08%	0.19%				0.08%
Washington Redskins	9.37%	1.81%		6.15%	6.92%	10.13%	6.36%	0.28%			3.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			0.01%	0.01%			0.05%		0.01%		0.02%
Buffalo Bills			0.09%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%	0.50%			0.19%	0.37%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.09%	0.21%		0.21%	0.28%	0.70%	1.75%	0.02%	0.04%	0.98%	1.67%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%		0.11%	0.25%	0.49%	0.01%	0.08%	0.35%	0.52%
Denver Broncos	0.02%	0.07%	0.19%	0.07%		0.22%	0.90%	0.01%	0.01%	0.46%	0.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.09%	0.26%	0.11%	0.26%		2.16%		0.07%	0.74%	1.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.21%	1.87%	4.96%	2.31%	3.84%	7.66%		0.13%	0.64%	13.85%	10.71%	0.15%
New England Patriots		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	0.02%			0.01%	0.01%
New York Jets		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%	0.09%			0.04%	0.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.41%	1.07%	0.47%	0.63%	1.17%	7.68%	0.03%	0.15%		3.46%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.16%	0.98%	2.03%	1.05%	1.70%	3.08%	6.79%	0.12%	0.50%	5.24%		0.02%
San Diego Chargers											0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.05%	0.55%	0.40%	0.38%	0.98%	1.59%	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%	0.09%	0.06%	1.19%
Chicago Bears				0.01%	0.01%								0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	1.28%	0.09%		1.11%	1.10%	2.96%	4.29%	0.02%	0.06%		0.37%	0.07%	4.96%
Detroit Lions	0.25%	0.01%	0.43%		0.14%	0.65%	0.50%		0.02%		0.09%	0.01%	0.66%
Green Bay Packers	0.14%	0.01%	0.18%	0.06%		0.30%	0.19%		0.03%		0.04%	0.01%	0.49%
Los Angeles Rams	3.35%	0.37%	3.61%	2.37%	1.75%		7.57%	0.05%	0.30%	0.06%	0.75%	0.20%	6.58%
Minnesota Vikings	2.68%	0.08%	4.25%	1.40%	1.14%	4.97%		0.04%	0.31%	0.01%	0.54%	0.16%	7.91%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%			0.01%			0.01%
New York Giants	0.05%		0.01%		0.01%	0.05%	0.05%				0.02%		0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles						0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%		0.04%	0.04%	0.08%	0.13%	0.11%		0.02%				0.14%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%				0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	2.13%	0.17%	3.85%	1.84%	1.73%	4.15%	7.67%	0.04%	0.16%	0.02%	0.67%	0.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.01%	0.02%		0.08%	0.09%		0.07%			0.09%		0.59%						0.34%		0.38%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%								0.01%																0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%						0.02%		0.01%	0.01%		0.09%		0.16%									0.01%		0.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.17%						0.53%		0.11%	0.07%		0.67%		0.61%			0.02%						0.01%		0.68%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.10%						0.11%		0.03%	0.01%		0.12%		0.14%									0.01%		0.17%
Dallas Cowboys		0.02%	0.15%		0.54%	0.24%		0.28%			0.45%		3.29%		0.01%			0.03%	1.30%		1.96%
Denver Broncos	0.08%						0.11%		0.04%	0.03%		0.17%		0.15%									0.01%		0.14%
Detroit Lions			0.01%		0.03%	0.03%		0.04%			0.07%		0.33%					0.01%	0.11%		0.14%
Green Bay Packers					0.03%						0.04%		0.18%						0.02%		0.12%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%						0.22%		0.02%	0.03%		0.24%		0.27%			0.01%						0.02%	0.01%	0.40%
Los Angeles Rams		0.02%	0.18%		1.03%	0.33%		0.53%			0.99%		6.24%		0.03%			0.03%	2.55%		3.31%
Miami Dolphins	1.66%			0.03%			4.14%		0.93%	0.63%		6.22%		6.16%		0.03%	0.07%						0.15%	0.01%	6.43%
Minnesota Vikings		0.01%	0.21%		0.74%	0.25%		0.44%			1.02%		4.97%		0.01%			0.06%	1.98%		2.41%	0.01%
New York Giants													0.03%
New York Jets	0.01%						0.01%							0.02%									0.01%		0.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.63%			0.02%			1.16%		0.33%	0.08%		1.51%		1.39%		0.01%	0.03%						0.11%		1.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.91%						1.74%		0.51%	0.20%		2.70%		2.48%			0.07%			0.01%			0.12%		2.40%
San Francisco 49ers			0.01%			0.01%		0.02%					0.03%						0.04%		0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals											0.01%								0.01%		0.03%
Washington Redskins		0.01%	0.17%		0.64%	0.28%		0.39%			0.76%		4.21%		0.02%			0.07%	1.89%		2.14%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Miami Dolphins	73.98%	51.88%	27.18%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	64.39%	33.28%	18.26%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	66.80%	37.97%	17.98%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	35.61%	18.13%	9.81%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	57.49%	21.17%	8.71%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	42.51%	14.40%	6.89%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	26.02%	12.55%	5.85%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	33.20%	10.62%	5.32%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals		26.02%
Miami Dolphins	73.98%
Oakland Raiders				57.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers			42.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		35.61%
Los Angeles Rams	64.39%
Minnesota Vikings				66.80%
Washington Redskins			33.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals			5.94%	6.61%
Miami Dolphins			30.38%	21.50%
Oakland Raiders	9.00%	12.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.47%	9.93%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			10.17%	7.96%
Los Angeles Rams			18.66%	14.62%
Minnesota Vikings	13.52%	24.45%
Washington Redskins	3.96%	6.66%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals		1.06%	1.87%		2.32%			0.60%
Dallas Cowboys	1.19%			5.07%		2.19%	1.36%
Los Angeles Rams	2.39%			8.52%		4.41%	2.94%
Miami Dolphins		4.61%	8.22%		11.49%			2.86%
Minnesota Vikings	2.44%			8.64%		4.39%	2.51%
Oakland Raiders		1.62%	2.66%		3.39%			1.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.03%	2.27%		2.79%			0.80%
Washington Redskins	0.68%			2.47%		1.47%	0.70%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Miami Dolphins 27.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

58.56%

Win Prob

71.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

42.27%

Win Prob

57.08%

Los Angeles Rams 18.26% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.07%

Win Prob

43.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

46.66%

Win Prob

50.90%

Minnesota Vikings 17.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.80%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

64.39%

Win Prob

56.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

48.05%

Win Prob

42.92%

Dallas Cowboys 9.81% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.09%

Win Prob

42.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

51.68%

Win Prob

52.38%

Oakland Raiders 8.71% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

57.49%

Win Prob

28.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

38.92%

Win Prob

43.57%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.89% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

68.96%

Win Prob

31.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.49%

Win Prob

52.64%

Cincinnati Bengals 5.85% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.67%

Win Prob

59.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

39.66%

Win Prob

48.74%

Washington Redskins 5.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

62.71%

Win Prob

31.30%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

46.43%

Win Prob

46.34%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1973-09-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 62-7	1484.57	1391.61	49.31%	46.64%	+68.46	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-31	1553.03	1531.05	39.25%	56.70%	-43.53	1-1
1973-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-31	1509.50	1536.87	32.71%	63.24%	-32.76	1-2
1973-10-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-13	1476.74	1521.72	53.49%	42.45%	-21.08	1-3
1973-10-14	Chicago Bears	W 46-6	1455.66	1441.68	61.52%	34.43%	+43.56	2-3
1973-10-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-0	1499.22	1401.48	49.99%	45.95%	+58.28	3-3
1973-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1557.50	1548.20	37.52%	58.43%	+42.97	4-3
1973-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-13	1600.47	1666.39	50.52%	45.43%	+12.73	5-3
1973-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 44-27	1613.20	1385.77	67.25%	28.70%	+23.79	6-3
1973-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-14	1636.99	1718.25	48.32%	47.63%	+23.07	7-3
1973-11-25	@ New York Jets	W 28-20	1660.06	1434.45	67.04%	28.92%	+16.44	8-3
1973-12-02	Buffalo Bills	L 6-17	1676.50	1433.43	83.68%	12.31%	-54.59	8-4
1973-12-09	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-32	1621.91	1361.81	84.71%	11.29%	-78.17	8-5
1973-12-16	New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1543.74	1381.41	77.71%	18.26%	+7.40	9-5
1973-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-24	1490.93	1526.01	31.74%	64.21%	-20.13	0-1
1973-09-23	New York Jets	L 10-34	1470.80	1463.82	60.60%	35.35%	-58.32	0-2
1973-09-30	New Orleans Saints	W 14-10	1412.48	1308.48	72.15%	23.82%	+9.62	1-2
1973-10-07	@ New England Patriots	L 16-24	1422.10	1284.94	55.56%	40.38%	-30.93	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1391.17	1432.25	31.00%	64.96%	-26.38	1-4
1973-10-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-27	1364.79	1496.50	21.04%	74.93%	+20.80	2-4
1973-10-28	Oakland Raiders	L 21-34	1385.59	1598.06	30.50%	65.45%	-22.07	2-5
1973-11-04	Houston Oilers	L 27-31	1363.52	1222.52	75.80%	20.17%	-29.77	2-6
1973-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-44	1333.75	1733.88	5.38%	90.67%	-7.32	2-7
1973-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-22	1326.43	1633.97	8.83%	87.18%	-5.10	2-8
1973-11-25	Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1321.33	1408.59	47.46%	48.49%	-24.84	2-9
1973-12-02	@ New York Jets	L 17-20	1296.49	1418.01	22.03%	73.93%	-7.71	2-10
1973-12-09	Miami Dolphins	W 16-3	1288.78	1787.68	7.78%	88.24%	+62.65	3-10
1973-12-16	New England Patriots	W 18-13	1351.43	1375.32	56.44%	39.51%	+17.60	4-10
1973-09-16	@ New England Patriots	W 31-13	1413.42	1344.78	45.82%	50.13%	+41.98	1-0
1973-09-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-34	1455.40	1423.08	40.68%	55.27%	-42.05	1-1
1973-09-30	New York Jets	W 9-7	1413.35	1522.15	44.37%	51.57%	+14.38	2-1
1973-10-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-26	1427.73	1309.33	73.62%	22.34%	+4.52	3-1
1973-10-14	Baltimore Colts	W 31-13	1432.25	1391.17	64.96%	31.00%	+26.38	4-1
1973-10-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-27	1458.63	1695.41	12.71%	83.29%	-11.86	4-2
1973-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-14	1446.77	1530.23	48.00%	47.94%	+28.43	5-2
1973-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-13	1475.20	1398.33	47.00%	48.95%	-33.53	5-3
1973-11-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-16	1441.67	1516.54	49.24%	46.71%	-16.84	5-4
1973-11-18	Miami Dolphins	L 0-17	1424.83	1741.19	19.43%	76.54%	-16.24	5-5
1973-11-25	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1408.59	1321.33	48.49%	47.46%	+24.84	6-5
1973-12-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-6	1433.43	1676.50	12.31%	83.68%	+54.59	7-5
1973-12-09	New England Patriots	W 37-13	1488.02	1400.59	70.37%	25.59%	+25.27	8-5
1973-12-16	@ New York Jets	W 34-14	1513.29	1416.58	49.85%	46.10%	+40.83	9-5
1973-09-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1447.11	1559.08	43.92%	52.02%	-15.09	0-1
1973-09-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-22	1432.02	1568.77	40.44%	55.51%	-24.14	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 33-14	1407.88	1494.48	25.68%	70.28%	+60.13	1-2
1973-10-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-21	1468.01	1298.86	59.92%	36.03%	-26.33	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-46	1441.68	1455.66	34.43%	61.52%	-43.56	1-4
1973-10-21	New England Patriots	L 10-13	1398.12	1305.74	70.91%	25.05%	-24.10	1-5
1973-10-28	Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1374.02	1242.00	74.95%	21.01%	+19.48	2-5
1973-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1393.50	1500.11	23.55%	72.42%	+53.19	3-5
1973-11-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-19	1446.69	1534.71	25.53%	70.43%	-17.82	3-6
1973-11-18	Detroit Lions	L 7-30	1428.87	1533.12	45.02%	50.92%	-42.80	3-7
1973-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-31	1386.07	1695.17	8.76%	87.26%	-7.60	3-8
1973-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-26	1378.47	1695.11	19.41%	76.56%	-20.05	3-9
1973-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-40	1358.42	1546.18	16.18%	79.80%	-18.89	3-10
1973-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1339.53	1401.52	51.08%	44.87%	-46.17	3-11
1973-09-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-28	1515.50	1473.77	42.00%	53.95%	-35.41	0-1
1973-09-23	Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1480.09	1340.41	75.68%	20.29%	+15.37	1-1
1973-09-30	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1495.46	1465.14	40.40%	55.54%	+28.92	2-1
1973-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-17	1524.38	1531.15	35.38%	60.57%	-18.70	2-2
1973-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-7	1505.68	1691.35	33.87%	62.08%	+42.23	3-2
1973-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-6	1547.91	1550.94	59.27%	36.68%	+20.71	4-2
1973-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1568.62	1662.53	24.89%	71.07%	-13.28	4-3
1973-11-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1555.34	1551.87	36.74%	59.21%	-38.80	4-4
1973-11-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 16-13	1516.54	1441.67	46.71%	49.24%	+16.84	5-4
1973-11-18	New York Jets	W 20-14	1533.38	1447.15	70.24%	25.72%	+12.70	6-4
1973-11-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 42-24	1546.08	1393.42	76.86%	19.11%	+16.43	7-4
1973-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-0	1562.51	1702.77	39.95%	55.99%	+57.24	8-4
1973-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-17	1619.75	1582.02	64.54%	31.41%	+25.98	9-4
1973-12-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-24	1645.73	1165.03	87.45%	8.57%	+3.03	10-4
1973-09-16	Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1526.01	1490.93	64.21%	31.74%	+20.13	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-33	1546.14	1635.17	25.42%	70.54%	-26.63	1-1
1973-09-30	New York Giants	W 12-10	1519.51	1556.81	54.57%	41.38%	+11.64	2-1
1973-10-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1531.15	1524.38	60.57%	35.38%	+18.70	3-1
1973-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 9-17	1549.85	1671.50	42.55%	53.39%	-23.90	3-2
1973-10-21	Houston Oilers	W 42-13	1525.95	1253.67	85.40%	10.61%	+11.66	4-2
1973-10-28	San Diego Chargers	T 16-16	1537.61	1343.21	80.32%	15.67%	-3.15	4-2
1973-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-26	1534.46	1681.11	19.65%	76.32%	-19.09	4-3
1973-11-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-13	1515.37	1252.29	71.27%	24.69%	+15.75	5-3
1973-11-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 7-3	1531.12	1613.19	26.18%	69.77%	+27.39	6-3
1973-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1558.51	1669.00	44.13%	51.81%	+22.84	7-3
1973-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	T 20-20	1581.35	1547.16	40.94%	55.01%	+0.67	7-3
1973-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-34	1582.02	1619.75	31.41%	64.54%	-25.97	7-4
1973-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-30	1556.05	1725.35	17.67%	78.30%	-12.93	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1559.08	1447.11	52.02%	43.92%	+15.10	1-0
1973-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 40-3	1574.18	1323.15	84.17%	11.82%	+14.66	2-0
1973-09-30	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-10	1588.84	1498.84	70.65%	25.31%	+30.19	3-0
1973-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1619.03	1623.46	35.69%	60.26%	-18.86	3-1
1973-10-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-37	1600.17	1635.58	31.70%	64.25%	-15.57	3-2
1973-10-21	New York Giants	W 45-28	1584.60	1492.40	70.89%	25.07%	+20.84	4-2
1973-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-30	1605.44	1326.47	72.94%	23.03%	-53.57	4-3
1973-11-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-10	1551.87	1555.34	59.21%	36.74%	+38.81	5-3
1973-11-11	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1590.68	1423.52	59.65%	36.30%	+26.13	6-3
1973-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-10	1616.81	1361.98	84.40%	11.60%	+10.84	7-3
1973-11-22	Miami Dolphins	L 7-14	1627.65	1757.43	41.41%	54.54%	-21.78	7-4
1973-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 22-10	1605.87	1587.48	38.76%	57.19%	+38.96	8-4
1973-12-09	Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1644.83	1687.62	53.80%	42.15%	+37.45	9-4
1973-12-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-3	1682.28	1439.98	68.97%	26.98%	+28.23	10-4
1973-09-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-10	1473.77	1515.50	53.95%	42.00%	+35.41	1-0
1973-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 34-36	1509.18	1559.40	52.75%	43.19%	-14.70	1-1
1973-09-30	Chicago Bears	L 14-33	1494.48	1407.88	70.28%	25.68%	-60.13	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1434.35	1542.78	23.36%	72.61%	-6.67	1-3
1973-10-14	@ Houston Oilers	W 48-20	1427.68	1297.12	54.64%	41.30%	+43.46	2-3
1973-10-22	Oakland Raiders	T 23-23	1471.14	1598.66	41.73%	54.22%	+0.59	2-3
1973-10-28	@ New York Jets	W 40-28	1471.73	1482.99	34.79%	61.16%	+41.62	3-3
1973-11-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 17-17	1513.35	1433.18	47.47%	48.48%	+0.05	3-3
1973-11-11	San Diego Chargers	W 30-19	1513.40	1313.43	80.74%	15.25%	+10.28	4-3
1973-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-13	1523.68	1718.96	15.60%	80.38%	+49.96	5-3
1973-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-10	1573.64	1561.00	61.34%	34.61%	+13.84	6-3
1973-12-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-22	1587.48	1605.87	57.19%	38.76%	-38.95	6-4
1973-12-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 42-28	1548.53	1286.93	71.11%	24.85%	+18.75	7-4
1973-12-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1567.28	1637.33	27.54%	68.41%	-11.09	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1557.07	1613.24	29.17%	66.79%	-21.93	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1535.14	1584.16	30.03%	65.93%	+1.73	0-1
1973-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-6	1536.87	1509.50	63.24%	32.71%	+32.77	1-1
1973-10-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-23	1569.64	1612.64	53.77%	42.18%	-39.63	1-2
1973-10-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-20	1530.01	1325.19	64.51%	31.44%	-33.51	1-3
1973-10-21	Baltimore Colts	L 27-29	1496.50	1364.79	74.93%	21.04%	-20.80	1-4
1973-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 34-0	1475.70	1554.67	48.65%	47.30%	+54.56	2-4
1973-11-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-20	1530.26	1505.23	62.94%	33.01%	+20.90	3-4
1973-11-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-28	1551.16	1700.20	19.43%	76.54%	-18.04	3-5
1973-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-7	1533.12	1428.87	50.92%	45.02%	+42.79	4-5
1973-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1575.91	1639.08	50.91%	45.03%	-44.92	4-6
1973-12-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-16	1530.99	1376.99	57.88%	38.07%	+15.19	5-6
1973-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 40-7	1546.18	1358.42	79.80%	16.18%	+18.88	6-6
1973-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-34	1565.06	1725.02	18.47%	77.51%	-19.46	6-7
1973-09-17	New York Jets	W 23-7	1562.64	1485.34	69.24%	26.72%	+21.52	1-0
1973-09-23	Detroit Lions	T 13-13	1584.16	1535.14	65.93%	30.03%	-1.72	1-0
1973-09-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-11	1582.44	1592.91	34.89%	61.06%	-19.73	1-1
1973-10-07	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1562.71	1545.18	38.64%	57.31%	+15.93	2-1
1973-10-14	Kansas City Chiefs	T 10-10	1578.64	1549.45	63.47%	32.48%	-1.49	2-1
1973-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-24	1577.15	1651.14	27.09%	68.86%	-22.48	2-2
1973-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-34	1554.67	1475.70	47.30%	48.65%	-54.56	2-3
1973-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 17-31	1500.11	1393.50	72.42%	23.55%	-53.19	2-4
1973-11-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 25-21	1446.92	1433.13	61.49%	34.46%	+13.78	3-4
1973-11-18	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1460.70	1291.74	59.89%	36.06%	-35.30	3-5
1973-11-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1425.40	1450.23	33.03%	62.92%	-24.75	3-6
1973-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 30-10	1400.65	1385.40	61.68%	34.27%	+30.65	4-6
1973-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1431.30	1645.53	30.29%	65.67%	-29.78	4-7
1973-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-0	1401.52	1339.53	44.87%	51.08%	+46.18	5-7
1973-09-16	@ New York Giants	L 14-34	1354.90	1545.74	15.94%	80.04%	-14.49	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1340.41	1480.09	20.29%	75.68%	-15.37	0-2
1973-09-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-36	1325.04	1661.79	17.66%	78.31%	-19.31	0-3
1973-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 26-31	1305.73	1626.96	19.00%	76.97%	-8.61	0-4
1973-10-14	Denver Broncos	L 20-48	1297.12	1427.68	41.30%	54.64%	-43.45	0-5
1973-10-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-42	1253.67	1525.95	10.61%	85.40%	-11.67	0-6
1973-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1242.00	1374.02	21.01%	74.95%	-19.48	0-7
1973-11-04	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-27	1222.52	1363.52	20.17%	75.80%	+29.77	1-7
1973-11-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-23	1252.29	1515.37	24.69%	71.27%	-15.75	1-8
1973-11-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-38	1236.54	1552.54	8.45%	87.57%	-8.46	1-9
1973-11-25	New England Patriots	L 0-32	1228.08	1327.04	45.78%	50.17%	-51.30	1-10
1973-12-02	Oakland Raiders	L 6-17	1176.78	1597.70	11.67%	84.33%	-7.89	1-11
1973-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-33	1168.89	1637.69	3.69%	92.39%	-3.86	1-12
1973-12-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1165.03	1645.73	8.57%	87.45%	-3.04	1-13
1973-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-23	1539.34	1490.11	65.95%	30.00%	-40.94	0-1
1973-09-23	@ New England Patriots	W 10-7	1498.40	1302.80	63.35%	32.60%	+11.31	1-1
1973-09-30	Oakland Raiders	W 16-3	1509.71	1581.89	49.62%	46.32%	+33.07	2-1
1973-10-07	Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1542.78	1434.35	72.61%	23.36%	+6.67	3-1
1973-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	T 10-10	1549.45	1578.64	32.48%	63.47%	+1.49	3-1
1973-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-14	1550.94	1547.91	36.68%	59.27%	-20.71	3-2
1973-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-23	1530.23	1446.77	47.94%	48.00%	-28.44	3-3
1973-11-04	@ San Diego Chargers	W 19-0	1501.79	1346.36	58.07%	37.88%	+32.92	4-3
1973-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 19-7	1534.71	1446.69	70.43%	25.53%	+17.83	5-3
1973-11-18	Houston Oilers	W 38-14	1552.54	1236.54	87.57%	8.45%	+8.46	6-3
1973-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-14	1561.00	1573.64	34.61%	61.34%	-13.84	6-4
1973-12-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 20-20	1547.16	1581.35	55.01%	40.94%	-0.67	6-4
1973-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-37	1546.49	1605.60	28.82%	67.14%	-31.73	6-5
1973-12-16	San Diego Chargers	W 33-6	1514.76	1268.17	83.90%	12.09%	+12.81	7-5
1973-09-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-13	1490.11	1539.34	30.00%	65.95%	+40.94	1-0
1973-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-0	1531.05	1553.03	56.70%	39.25%	+43.53	2-0
1973-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-20	1574.58	1574.10	36.34%	59.61%	+52.38	3-0
1973-10-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-26	1626.96	1305.73	76.97%	19.00%	+8.62	4-0
1973-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-31	1635.58	1600.17	64.25%	31.70%	+15.56	5-0
1973-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 24-7	1651.14	1577.15	68.86%	27.09%	+22.49	6-0
1973-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-10	1673.63	1673.87	36.24%	59.71%	-7.24	6-1
1973-11-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-15	1666.39	1600.47	45.43%	50.52%	-12.73	6-2
1973-11-11	New Orleans Saints	W 29-7	1653.66	1431.86	82.30%	13.69%	+13.08	7-2
1973-11-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-13	1666.74	1463.16	81.00%	14.98%	+12.93	8-2
1973-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-13	1679.67	1400.84	72.92%	23.04%	+15.44	9-2
1973-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-0	1695.11	1378.47	76.56%	19.41%	+20.05	10-2
1973-12-10	New York Giants	W 40-6	1715.16	1401.35	87.47%	8.54%	+10.19	11-2
1973-12-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-17	1725.35	1556.05	78.30%	17.67%	+12.93	12-2
1973-09-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-13	1650.80	1574.69	69.10%	26.85%	+15.29	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-12	1666.09	1559.27	51.29%	44.66%	-22.62	1-1
1973-09-30	New England Patriots	W 44-23	1643.47	1291.49	89.05%	6.98%	+6.55	2-1
1973-10-07	New York Jets	W 31-3	1650.02	1507.76	75.92%	20.05%	+21.48	3-1
1973-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-9	1671.50	1549.85	53.39%	42.55%	+23.91	4-1
1973-10-21	Buffalo Bills	W 27-6	1695.41	1458.63	83.29%	12.71%	+11.87	5-1
1973-10-28	@ New England Patriots	W 30-14	1707.28	1329.84	81.48%	14.51%	+11.81	6-1
1973-11-04	@ New York Jets	W 24-14	1719.09	1441.38	72.81%	23.16%	+14.79	7-1
1973-11-11	Baltimore Colts	W 44-0	1733.88	1333.75	90.67%	5.38%	+7.31	8-1
1973-11-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-0	1741.19	1424.83	76.54%	19.43%	+16.24	9-1
1973-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-7	1757.43	1627.65	54.54%	41.41%	+21.79	10-1
1973-12-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-26	1779.22	1646.16	75.05%	20.91%	+8.46	11-1
1973-12-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-16	1787.68	1288.78	88.24%	7.78%	-62.66	11-2
1973-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 34-7	1725.02	1565.06	77.51%	18.47%	+19.46	12-2
1973-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 24-16	1545.52	1582.51	54.62%	41.33%	+23.25	1-0
1973-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 22-13	1568.77	1432.02	55.51%	40.44%	+24.14	2-0
1973-09-30	Green Bay Packers	W 11-3	1592.91	1582.44	61.06%	34.89%	+19.73	3-0
1973-10-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-9	1612.64	1569.64	42.18%	53.77%	+39.63	4-0
1973-10-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1652.27	1542.79	51.67%	44.28%	+17.56	5-0
1973-10-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1669.83	1330.51	88.56%	7.47%	+4.04	6-0
1973-10-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 10-9	1673.87	1673.63	59.71%	36.24%	+7.24	7-0
1973-11-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-3	1681.11	1534.46	76.32%	19.65%	+19.09	8-0
1973-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1700.20	1551.16	76.54%	19.43%	+18.05	9-0
1973-11-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1718.25	1636.99	47.63%	48.32%	-23.08	9-1
1973-11-25	Chicago Bears	W 31-13	1695.17	1386.07	87.26%	8.76%	+7.60	10-1
1973-12-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-27	1702.77	1562.51	55.99%	39.95%	-57.24	10-2
1973-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-7	1645.53	1431.30	65.67%	30.29%	+29.78	11-2
1973-12-16	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1675.31	1391.16	73.46%	22.50%	+22.28	12-2
1973-09-16	Buffalo Bills	L 13-31	1344.78	1413.42	50.13%	45.82%	-41.98	0-1
1973-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-10	1302.80	1498.40	32.60%	63.35%	-11.31	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-44	1291.49	1643.47	6.98%	89.05%	-6.55	0-3
1973-10-07	Baltimore Colts	W 24-16	1284.94	1422.10	40.38%	55.56%	+30.93	1-3
1973-10-14	New York Jets	L 7-9	1315.87	1486.28	35.87%	60.08%	-10.13	1-4
1973-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1305.74	1398.12	25.05%	70.91%	+24.10	2-4
1973-10-28	Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1329.84	1707.28	14.51%	81.48%	-11.81	2-5
1973-11-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1318.03	1380.04	28.48%	67.48%	-5.72	2-6
1973-11-11	@ New York Jets	L 13-33	1312.31	1426.59	22.76%	73.20%	-20.57	2-7
1973-11-18	Green Bay Packers	W 33-24	1291.74	1460.70	36.06%	59.89%	+35.30	3-7
1973-11-25	@ Houston Oilers	W 32-0	1327.04	1228.08	50.17%	45.78%	+51.30	4-7
1973-12-02	San Diego Chargers	W 30-14	1378.34	1309.17	68.31%	27.65%	+22.25	5-7
1973-12-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-37	1400.59	1488.02	25.59%	70.37%	-25.27	5-8
1973-12-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 13-18	1375.32	1351.43	39.51%	56.44%	-17.60	5-9
1973-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-62	1391.61	1484.57	46.64%	49.31%	-68.46	0-1
1973-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-40	1323.15	1574.18	11.82%	84.17%	-14.67	0-2
1973-09-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-14	1308.48	1412.48	23.82%	72.15%	-9.62	0-3
1973-10-07	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1298.86	1468.01	36.03%	59.92%	+26.33	1-3
1973-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1325.19	1530.01	31.44%	64.51%	+33.50	2-3
1973-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-40	1358.69	1525.23	17.90%	78.07%	-22.97	2-4
1973-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 19-3	1335.72	1688.87	16.33%	79.65%	+62.61	3-4
1973-11-04	Buffalo Bills	W 13-0	1398.33	1475.20	48.95%	47.00%	+33.53	4-4
1973-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-29	1431.86	1653.66	13.69%	82.30%	-13.08	4-5
1973-11-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-17	1418.78	1303.15	52.54%	43.40%	-17.94	4-6
1973-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1400.84	1679.67	23.04%	72.92%	-15.44	4-7
1973-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-30	1385.40	1400.65	34.27%	61.68%	-30.65	4-8
1973-12-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-10	1354.75	1490.09	40.64%	55.31%	+26.66	5-8
1973-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1381.41	1543.74	18.26%	77.71%	-7.41	5-9
1973-09-16	Houston Oilers	W 34-14	1545.74	1354.90	80.04%	15.94%	+14.49	1-0
1973-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	T 23-23	1560.23	1328.09	82.99%	13.00%	-3.42	1-0
1973-09-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-12	1556.81	1519.51	41.38%	54.57%	-11.63	1-1
1973-10-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1545.18	1562.71	57.31%	38.64%	-15.94	1-2
1973-10-14	Washington Redskins	L 3-21	1529.24	1642.33	43.77%	52.18%	-36.84	1-3
1973-10-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-45	1492.40	1584.60	25.07%	70.89%	-20.85	1-4
1973-10-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-35	1471.55	1407.90	45.10%	50.84%	-25.28	1-5
1973-11-04	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-42	1446.27	1620.13	17.29%	78.68%	-22.75	1-6
1973-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-23	1423.52	1590.68	36.30%	59.65%	-26.14	1-7
1973-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-13	1397.38	1419.35	56.70%	39.25%	+25.93	2-7
1973-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1423.31	1351.14	46.32%	49.63%	-18.34	2-8
1973-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1404.97	1684.00	10.24%	85.76%	-3.62	2-9
1973-12-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-40	1401.35	1715.16	8.54%	87.47%	-10.19	2-10
1973-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-31	1391.16	1675.31	22.50%	73.46%	-22.28	2-11
1973-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-23	1485.34	1562.64	26.72%	69.24%	-21.52	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-10	1463.82	1470.80	35.35%	60.60%	+58.33	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-9	1522.15	1413.35	51.57%	44.37%	-14.39	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-31	1507.76	1650.02	20.05%	75.92%	-21.48	1-3
1973-10-14	@ New England Patriots	W 9-7	1486.28	1315.87	60.08%	35.87%	+10.13	2-3
1973-10-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-26	1496.41	1649.11	19.10%	76.87%	-13.42	2-4
1973-10-28	Denver Broncos	L 28-40	1482.99	1471.73	61.16%	34.79%	-41.61	2-5
1973-11-04	Miami Dolphins	L 14-24	1441.38	1719.09	23.16%	72.81%	-14.79	2-6
1973-11-11	New England Patriots	W 33-13	1426.59	1312.31	73.20%	22.76%	+20.56	3-6
1973-11-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-20	1447.15	1533.38	25.72%	70.24%	-12.70	3-7
1973-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-28	1434.45	1660.06	28.92%	67.04%	-16.44	3-8
1973-12-02	Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1418.01	1296.49	73.93%	22.03%	+7.72	4-8
1973-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1425.73	1354.38	46.20%	49.74%	-9.15	4-9
1973-12-16	Buffalo Bills	L 14-34	1416.58	1513.29	46.10%	49.85%	-40.83	4-10
1973-09-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-24	1582.51	1545.52	41.33%	54.62%	-23.24	0-1
1973-09-23	Miami Dolphins	W 12-7	1559.27	1666.09	44.66%	51.29%	+22.62	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-16	1581.89	1509.71	46.32%	49.62%	-33.07	1-2
1973-10-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1548.82	1468.65	47.47%	48.48%	+25.35	2-2
1973-10-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1574.17	1425.97	57.09%	38.86%	+24.49	3-2
1973-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	T 23-23	1598.66	1471.14	54.22%	41.73%	-0.60	3-2
1973-10-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-21	1598.06	1385.59	65.45%	30.50%	+22.07	4-2
1973-11-04	New York Giants	W 42-0	1620.13	1446.27	78.68%	17.29%	+22.75	5-2
1973-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-17	1642.88	1689.26	53.30%	42.65%	-29.69	5-3
1973-11-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-7	1613.19	1531.12	69.77%	26.18%	-27.39	5-4
1973-11-25	San Diego Chargers	W 31-3	1585.80	1321.08	84.97%	11.03%	+11.90	6-4
1973-12-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-6	1597.70	1176.78	84.33%	11.67%	+7.90	7-4
1973-12-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-7	1605.60	1546.49	67.14%	28.82%	+31.73	8-4
1973-12-16	Denver Broncos	W 21-17	1637.33	1567.28	68.41%	27.54%	+11.08	9-4
1973-09-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-34	1360.28	1435.85	49.14%	46.81%	-32.19	0-1
1973-09-23	@ New York Giants	T 23-23	1328.09	1560.23	13.00%	82.99%	+3.42	0-1
1973-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 7-28	1331.51	1601.28	23.98%	71.98%	-22.18	0-2
1973-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 26-27	1309.33	1427.73	22.34%	73.62%	-4.52	0-3
1973-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1304.81	1443.30	20.40%	75.57%	+25.70	1-3
1973-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-28	1330.51	1669.83	7.47%	88.56%	-4.04	1-4
1973-10-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-16	1326.47	1605.44	23.03%	72.94%	+53.57	2-4
1973-11-04	New England Patriots	W 24-23	1380.04	1318.03	67.48%	28.48%	+5.73	3-4
1973-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-44	1385.77	1613.20	28.70%	67.25%	-23.79	3-5
1973-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-31	1361.98	1616.81	11.60%	84.40%	-10.84	3-6
1973-11-25	New York Giants	W 20-16	1351.14	1423.31	49.63%	46.32%	+18.34	4-6
1973-12-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1369.48	1474.99	23.66%	72.30%	-15.10	4-7
1973-12-09	New York Jets	W 24-23	1354.38	1425.73	49.74%	46.20%	+9.14	5-7
1973-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-38	1363.52	1650.17	9.85%	86.16%	-8.53	5-8
1973-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1613.24	1557.07	66.79%	29.17%	+21.93	1-0
1973-09-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-6	1635.17	1546.14	70.54%	25.42%	+26.62	2-0
1973-09-30	@ Houston Oilers	W 36-7	1661.79	1325.04	78.31%	17.66%	+19.31	3-0
1973-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 38-21	1681.10	1436.22	83.80%	12.20%	+10.25	4-0
1973-10-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-19	1691.35	1505.68	62.08%	33.87%	-42.24	4-1
1973-10-21	New York Jets	W 26-14	1649.11	1496.41	76.87%	19.10%	+13.42	5-1
1973-10-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1662.53	1568.62	71.07%	24.89%	+13.28	6-1
1973-11-05	Washington Redskins	W 21-16	1675.81	1626.26	65.99%	29.96%	+13.45	7-1
1973-11-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-9	1689.26	1642.88	42.65%	53.30%	+29.70	8-1
1973-11-18	Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1718.96	1523.68	80.38%	15.60%	-49.96	8-2
1973-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-21	1669.00	1558.51	51.81%	44.13%	-22.84	8-3
1973-12-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 26-30	1646.16	1779.22	20.91%	75.05%	-8.47	8-4
1973-12-09	Houston Oilers	W 33-7	1637.69	1168.89	92.39%	3.69%	+3.86	9-4
1973-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 37-14	1641.55	1463.43	61.10%	34.85%	+33.42	10-4
1973-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-38	1445.79	1609.37	18.15%	77.82%	-22.71	0-1
1973-09-23	Buffalo Bills	W 34-7	1423.08	1455.40	55.27%	40.68%	+42.06	1-1
1973-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1465.14	1495.46	55.54%	40.40%	-28.92	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-38	1436.22	1681.10	12.20%	83.80%	-10.25	1-3
1973-10-14	Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1425.97	1574.17	38.86%	57.09%	-24.49	1-4
1973-10-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-41	1401.48	1499.22	45.95%	49.99%	-58.27	1-5
1973-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 16-16	1343.21	1537.61	15.67%	80.32%	+3.15	1-5
1973-11-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-19	1346.36	1501.79	37.88%	58.07%	-32.93	1-6
1973-11-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-30	1313.43	1513.40	15.25%	80.74%	-10.28	1-7
1973-11-18	New Orleans Saints	W 17-14	1303.15	1418.78	43.40%	52.54%	+17.93	2-7
1973-11-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-31	1321.08	1585.80	11.03%	84.97%	-11.91	2-8
1973-12-02	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1309.17	1378.34	27.65%	68.31%	-22.24	2-9
1973-12-09	Denver Broncos	L 28-42	1286.93	1548.53	24.85%	71.11%	-18.76	2-10
1973-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-33	1268.17	1514.76	12.09%	83.90%	-12.81	2-11
1973-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-21	1574.69	1650.80	26.85%	69.10%	-15.29	0-1
1973-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 36-34	1559.40	1509.18	43.19%	52.75%	+14.70	1-1
1973-09-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-40	1574.10	1574.58	59.61%	36.34%	-52.38	1-2
1973-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-9	1521.72	1476.74	42.45%	53.49%	+21.07	2-2
1973-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-17	1542.79	1652.27	44.28%	51.67%	-17.56	2-3
1973-10-21	New Orleans Saints	W 40-0	1525.23	1358.69	78.07%	17.90%	+22.97	3-3
1973-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1548.20	1557.50	58.43%	37.52%	-42.97	3-4
1973-11-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1505.23	1530.26	33.01%	62.94%	-20.91	3-5
1973-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-33	1484.32	1612.81	21.35%	74.61%	-21.16	3-6
1973-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-31	1463.16	1666.74	14.98%	81.00%	-12.93	3-7
1973-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 20-6	1450.23	1425.40	62.92%	33.03%	+24.76	4-7
1973-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-28	1474.99	1369.48	72.30%	23.66%	+15.10	5-7
1973-12-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-16	1490.09	1354.75	55.31%	40.64%	-26.66	5-8
1973-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-37	1463.43	1641.55	34.85%	61.10%	-33.42	5-9
1973-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-23	1435.85	1360.28	46.81%	49.14%	+32.19	1-0
1973-09-23	Washington Redskins	W 34-27	1468.04	1632.08	36.72%	59.23%	+30.80	2-0
1973-09-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-45	1498.84	1588.84	25.31%	70.65%	-30.19	2-1
1973-10-07	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1468.65	1548.82	48.48%	47.47%	-25.35	2-2
1973-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1443.30	1304.81	75.57%	20.40%	-25.70	2-3
1973-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-31	1417.60	1679.17	11.21%	84.79%	-9.70	2-4
1973-10-28	New York Giants	W 35-27	1407.90	1471.55	50.84%	45.10%	+25.28	3-4
1973-11-04	Denver Broncos	T 17-17	1433.18	1513.35	48.48%	47.47%	-0.05	3-4
1973-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-25	1433.13	1446.92	34.46%	61.49%	-13.78	3-5
1973-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 13-24	1419.35	1397.38	39.25%	56.70%	-25.93	3-6
1973-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-42	1393.42	1546.08	19.11%	76.86%	-16.43	3-7
1973-12-02	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1376.99	1530.99	38.07%	57.88%	-15.18	3-8
1973-12-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 32-10	1361.81	1621.91	11.29%	84.71%	+78.17	4-8
1973-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-30	1439.98	1682.28	26.98%	68.97%	-28.23	4-9
1973-09-16	San Diego Chargers	W 38-0	1609.37	1445.79	77.82%	18.15%	+22.71	1-0
1973-09-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-34	1632.08	1468.04	59.23%	36.72%	-30.80	1-1
1973-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-7	1601.28	1331.51	71.98%	23.98%	+22.18	2-1
1973-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 14-7	1623.46	1619.03	60.26%	35.69%	+18.87	3-1
1973-10-14	@ New York Giants	W 21-3	1642.33	1529.24	52.18%	43.77%	+36.84	4-1
1973-10-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-13	1679.17	1417.60	84.79%	11.21%	+9.70	5-1
1973-10-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-19	1688.87	1335.72	79.65%	16.33%	-62.61	5-2
1973-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-21	1626.26	1675.81	29.96%	65.99%	-13.45	5-3
1973-11-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-9	1612.81	1484.32	74.61%	21.35%	+21.16	6-3
1973-11-18	Baltimore Colts	W 22-14	1633.97	1326.43	87.18%	8.83%	+5.11	7-3
1973-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1639.08	1575.91	45.03%	50.91%	+44.92	8-3
1973-12-02	New York Giants	W 27-24	1684.00	1404.97	85.76%	10.24%	+3.62	9-3
1973-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1687.62	1644.83	42.15%	53.80%	-37.45	9-4
1973-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-20	1650.17	1363.52	86.16%	9.85%	+8.53	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1973-12-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-34	1648.76	1744.48	26.26%	73.74%	-21.13	0-1
1973-12-23	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-16	1710.51	1738.28	57.97%	42.03%	+26.44	1-0
1973-12-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1736.95	1714.19	64.85%	35.15%	-50.73	1-1
1973-12-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-27	1738.28	1710.51	42.03%	57.97%	-26.44	0-1
1973-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-16	1744.48	1648.76	73.74%	26.26%	+21.14	1-0
1973-12-30	Oakland Raiders	W 27-10	1765.62	1683.02	72.25%	27.75%	+21.70	2-0
1974-01-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1787.32	1764.91	53.22%	46.78%	+36.59	3-0
1973-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1697.59	1658.70	66.94%	33.06%	+16.60	1-0
1973-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-10	1714.19	1736.95	35.15%	64.85%	+50.72	2-0
1974-01-13	Miami Dolphins	L 7-24	1764.91	1787.32	46.78%	53.22%	-36.59	2-1
1973-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-14	1648.41	1674.97	58.15%	41.85%	+34.61	1-0
1973-12-30	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1683.02	1765.62	27.75%	72.25%	-21.70	1-1
1973-12-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-33	1674.97	1648.41	41.85%	58.15%	-34.61	0-1
1973-12-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1658.70	1697.59	33.06%	66.94%	-16.59	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1973-12-09	7.78%	@ Baltimore Colts	1288.78	16	Miami Dolphins	1787.68	3
2	1973-12-09	11.29%	St. Louis Cardinals	1361.81	32	@ Atlanta Falcons	1621.91	10
3	1973-12-02	12.31%	Buffalo Bills	1433.43	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1676.50	6
4	1973-11-18	15.60%	Denver Broncos	1523.68	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1718.96	13
5	1973-10-28	16.33%	@ New Orleans Saints	1335.72	19	Washington Redskins	1688.87	3
6	1973-11-04	20.17%	Houston Oilers	1222.52	31	@ Baltimore Colts	1363.52	27
7	1973-10-14	20.40%	Philadelphia Eagles	1304.81	27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1443.30	24
8	1973-10-21	21.04%	Baltimore Colts	1364.79	29	@ Detroit Lions	1496.50	27
9	1973-10-28	23.03%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1326.47	30	Dallas Cowboys	1605.44	16
10	1973-11-04	23.55%	Chicago Bears	1393.50	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1500.11	17
11	1973-10-21	25.05%	New England Patriots	1305.74	13	@ Chicago Bears	1398.12	10
12	1973-09-30	25.68%	Chicago Bears	1407.88	33	@ Denver Broncos	1494.48	14
13	1973-11-18	26.18%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1531.12	7	@ Oakland Raiders	1613.19	3
14	1973-09-16	30.00%	Los Angeles Rams	1490.11	23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1539.34	13
15	1973-10-14	31.44%	@ New Orleans Saints	1325.19	20	Detroit Lions	1530.01	13
16	1973-10-14	33.87%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1505.68	19	Pittsburgh Steelers	1691.35	7
17	1973-10-28	34.79%	Denver Broncos	1471.73	40	@ New York Jets	1482.99	28
18	1973-12-30 *	35.15%	Minnesota Vikings	1714.19	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1736.95	10
19	1973-09-23	35.35%	New York Jets	1463.82	34	@ Baltimore Colts	1470.80	10
20	1973-10-07	36.03%	@ New Orleans Saints	1298.86	21	Chicago Bears	1468.01	16
21	1973-11-18	36.06%	@ New England Patriots	1291.74	33	Green Bay Packers	1460.70	24
22	1973-09-30	36.34%	Los Angeles Rams	1574.58	40	@ San Francisco 49ers	1574.10	20
23	1973-09-23	36.72%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1468.04	34	Washington Redskins	1632.08	27
24	1973-10-28	37.52%	Atlanta Falcons	1557.50	17	@ San Francisco 49ers	1548.20	3
25	1973-10-07	38.64%	Green Bay Packers	1562.71	16	@ New York Giants	1545.18	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1973-12-09	78.17	St. Louis Cardinals	32	1361.81	11.29%	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1621.91	84.71%
2	1973-09-16	68.46	Atlanta Falcons	62	1484.57	49.31%	@ New Orleans Saints	7	1391.61	46.64%
3	1973-12-09	62.66	@ Baltimore Colts	16	1288.78	7.78%	Miami Dolphins	3	1787.68	88.24%
4	1973-10-28	62.61	@ New Orleans Saints	19	1335.72	16.33%	Washington Redskins	3	1688.87	79.65%
5	1973-09-30	60.13	Chicago Bears	33	1407.88	25.68%	@ Denver Broncos	14	1494.48	70.28%
6	1973-09-23	58.33	New York Jets	34	1463.82	35.35%	@ Baltimore Colts	10	1470.80	60.60%
7	1973-10-21	58.28	Atlanta Falcons	41	1499.22	49.99%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1401.48	45.95%
8	1973-12-02	57.24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1562.51	39.95%	Minnesota Vikings	0	1702.77	55.99%
9	1973-12-02	54.59	Buffalo Bills	17	1433.43	12.31%	@ Atlanta Falcons	6	1676.50	83.68%
10	1973-10-28	54.56	@ Detroit Lions	34	1475.70	48.65%	Green Bay Packers	0	1554.67	47.30%
11	1973-10-28	53.57	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1326.47	23.03%	Dallas Cowboys	16	1605.44	72.94%
12	1973-11-04	53.19	Chicago Bears	31	1393.50	23.55%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1500.11	72.42%
13	1973-09-30	52.38	Los Angeles Rams	40	1574.58	36.34%	@ San Francisco 49ers	20	1574.10	59.61%
14	1973-11-25	51.30	New England Patriots	32	1327.04	50.17%	@ Houston Oilers	0	1228.08	45.78%
15	1973-12-30 *	50.73	Minnesota Vikings	27	1714.19	35.15%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1736.95	64.85%
16	1973-11-18	49.96	Denver Broncos	23	1523.68	15.60%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1718.96	80.38%
17	1973-12-16	46.18	Green Bay Packers	21	1401.52	44.87%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1339.53	51.08%
18	1973-11-22	44.92	Washington Redskins	20	1639.08	45.03%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1575.91	50.91%
19	1973-10-14	43.56	@ Atlanta Falcons	46	1455.66	61.52%	Chicago Bears	6	1441.68	34.43%
20	1973-09-23	43.53	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1531.05	56.70%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1553.03	39.25%
21	1973-10-14	43.46	Denver Broncos	48	1427.68	54.64%	@ Houston Oilers	20	1297.12	41.30%
22	1973-10-28	42.97	Atlanta Falcons	17	1557.50	37.52%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1548.20	58.43%
23	1973-11-18	42.80	Detroit Lions	30	1533.12	50.92%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1428.87	45.02%
24	1973-10-14	42.24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	19	1505.68	33.87%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1691.35	62.08%
25	1973-09-23	42.06	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1423.08	55.27%	Buffalo Bills	7	1455.40	40.68%