1972 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Miami Dolphins

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1945

Biggest Overachiever

Miami Dolphins

3.49 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.51 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

2.90 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.90 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	11	3	.786	-	343	175	+168	8.13	+2.87
2	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	10	4	.714	1	268	249	+19	7.63	+2.37
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	6	.571	3	299	229	+70	7.76	+0.24
4	Houston Oilers	1	13	.071	10	164	380	-216	3.90	-2.90

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	14	0	0	1.000	-	385	171	+214	10.51	+3.49
2	New York Jets	7	7	0	.500	7	367	324	+43	7.48	-0.48
3	Baltimore Colts	5	9	0	.357	9	235	252	-17	7.10	-2.10
4	Buffalo Bills	4	9	1	.321	9.5	257	377	-120	4.07	+0.43
5	New England Patriots	3	11	0	.214	11	192	446	-254	3.88	-0.88

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	10	3	1	.750	-	365	248	+117	8.93	+1.57
2	Kansas City Chiefs	8	6	0	.571	2.5	287	254	+33	8.26	-0.26
3	Denver Broncos	5	9	0	.357	5.5	325	350	-25	5.30	-0.30
4	San Diego Chargers	4	9	1	.321	6	264	344	-80	5.62	-1.12

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	4	0	.714	-	304	226	+78	7.14	+2.86
2	Detroit Lions	8	5	1	.607	1.5	339	290	+49	8.57	-0.07
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	7	0	.500	3	301	252	+49	8.62	-1.62
4	Chicago Bears	4	9	1	.321	5.5	225	275	-50	5.35	-0.85

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	11	3	0	.786	-	336	218	+118	9.54	+1.46
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	1	319	240	+79	9.59	+0.41
3	New York Giants	8	6	0	.571	3	331	247	+84	6.87	+1.13
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	6.5	193	303	-110	5.08	-0.58
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2	11	1	.179	8.5	145	352	-207	4.22	-1.72

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	8	5	1	.607	-	353	249	+104	8.42	+0.08
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	7	0	.500	1.5	269	274	-5	7.67	-0.67
3	Los Angeles Rams	6	7	1	.464	2	291	286	+5	8.32	-1.82
4	New Orleans Saints	2	11	1	.179	6	215	361	-146	4.05	-1.55

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Oakland Raiders 7

Dec 23

Miami Dolphins 20

Cleveland Browns (1st) 14

Dec 24

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Dec 31

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 30

San Francisco 49ers 28

Dec 23

Washington Redskins 16

Green Bay Packers 3

Dec 24

Conference Championship

Washington Redskins 26

Dallas Cowboys 3

Dec 31

Super Bowl

Miami Dolphins 14

Washington Redskins 7

Jan 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1778	14	10.51	+3.49	100.00%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1726	11	8.13	+2.87	98.41%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1696	10.5	8.93	+1.57	84.85%	1	6	8	9	10	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1680	10	7.14	+2.86	98.12%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1661	11	9.54	+1.46	90.85%	2	7	8	9	10	12	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1647	8.5	8.42	+0.08	56.68%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1617	10	9.59	+0.41	74.23%	1	7	8	9	11	12	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1615	8.5	8.57	-0.07	53.38%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1598	8	6.87	+1.13	86.01%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1581	10	7.63	+2.37	96.09%	0	4	6	7	9	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1576	7	8.62	-1.62	30.85%	0	5	7	8	10	11	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1570	8	8.26	-0.26	60.29%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1533	8	7.76	+0.24	70.76%	0	5	6	8	9	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1467	7	7.48	-0.48	55.48%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1461	5	7.10	-2.10	21.65%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1460	6.5	8.32	-1.82	17.80%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1458	7	7.67	-0.67	51.34%	0	5	6	7	9	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1455	5	5.30	-0.30	60.79%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1394	4.5	5.35	-0.85	36.99%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1389	4.5	5.62	-1.12	31.07%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1384	4.5	5.08	-0.58	42.36%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1348	4.5	4.07	+0.43	66.63%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1273	2.5	4.05	-1.55	20.43%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1223	2.5	4.22	-1.72	17.29%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1213	3	3.88	-0.88	47.15%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1197	1	3.90	-2.90	7.32%	0	1	3	4	5	6	12

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	-

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	1-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.55%	0.82%	1.92%	2.20%	2.47%	0.82%	0.27%	9.07%
7–13	0.82%	2.75%	2.75%	5.49%	3.02%	0.82%	0.27%	15.93%
14–20	1.92%	2.75%	8.24%	8.79%	2.75%	1.92%	0.82%	27.20%
21–27	2.20%	5.49%	8.79%	7.14%	2.20%	1.37%	0.82%	28.02%
28–34	2.47%	3.02%	2.75%	2.20%	1.10%	—	0.27%	11.81%
35–41	0.82%	0.82%	1.92%	1.37%	—	—	0.27%	5.22%
42+	0.27%	0.27%	0.82%	0.82%	0.27%	0.27%	—	2.75%
Total	9.07%	15.93%	27.20%	28.02%	11.81%	5.22%	2.75%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.25	20.25	+0.00
SD	10.57	10.57	16.59
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	62	62	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	28.57%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.21	19.57	-0.36
SD	10.62	10.55	16.14
CV	0.55	0.54	—
Max	37	49	+28
Min	0	3	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	42.86%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.79	18.00	-1.21
SD	12.44	11.37	16.80
CV	0.74	0.63	—
Max	35	44	+31
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.36	26.93	-8.57
SD	10.44	9.03	16.12
CV	0.57	0.34	—
Max	38	41	+24
Min	0	14	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.07	19.64	-3.57
SD	7.68	11.39	11.33
CV	0.48	0.58	—
Max	27	38	+17
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.36	16.36	+5.00
SD	13.39	9.96	17.58
CV	0.63	0.61	—
Max	61	40	+44
Min	6	3	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	64.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.14	17.79	+1.36
SD	10.32	9.00	16.63
CV	0.54	0.51	—
Max	27	31	+21
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.79	17.14	+5.64
SD	9.41	9.63	14.03
CV	0.41	0.56	—
Max	34	31	+22
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	50.00%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	25.00	-1.79
SD	9.54	9.55	15.22
CV	0.41	0.38	—
Max	45	45	+25
Min	10	10	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	42.86%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.21	20.71	+3.50
SD	10.03	8.51	14.25
CV	0.41	0.41	—
Max	38	34	+17
Min	7	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	42.86%	28.57%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.71	16.14	+5.57
SD	7.55	6.63	10.51
CV	0.35	0.41	—
Max	34	27	+26
Min	9	7	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	35.71%	—	7.14%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.71	27.14	-15.43
SD	7.78	12.13	12.89
CV	0.66	0.45	—
Max	26	61	+6
Min	0	9	-44

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	42.86%	42.86%	—	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.50	18.14	+2.36
SD	10.57	5.99	13.40
CV	0.52	0.33	—
Max	45	27	+24
Min	3	7	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.79	20.43	+0.36
SD	10.79	13.56	18.04
CV	0.52	0.66	—
Max	41	45	+31
Min	3	3	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.50	12.21	+15.29
SD	9.35	8.02	12.62
CV	0.34	0.66	—
Max	52	24	+52
Min	16	0	+1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	18.00	+3.50
SD	11.04	8.62	13.07
CV	0.51	0.48	—
Max	45	41	+31
Min	7	6	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.71	31.86	-18.14
SD	8.52	10.80	16.20
CV	0.62	0.34	—
Max	24	52	+7
Min	0	10	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	64.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.36	25.79	-10.43
SD	5.87	11.28	14.16
CV	0.38	0.44	—
Max	21	45	+18
Min	2	3	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.64	17.64	+6.00
SD	14.45	7.79	18.15
CV	0.61	0.44	—
Max	62	30	+52
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.21	23.14	+3.07
SD	11.52	9.75	17.89
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	44	37	+38
Min	10	3	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	57.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.07	17.71	+8.36
SD	8.29	9.14	13.49
CV	0.32	0.52	—
Max	45	34	+34
Min	14	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	21.43%	42.86%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.36	25.14	-14.79
SD	7.11	12.66	14.45
CV	0.69	0.50	—
Max	23	62	+1
Min	0	6	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.50	12.50	+12.00
SD	9.90	9.19	11.69
CV	0.40	0.74	—
Max	40	28	+30
Min	9	0	-5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	35.71%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.86	24.57	-5.71
SD	10.40	7.56	15.29
CV	0.55	0.31	—
Max	37	38	+23
Min	2	14	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.21	17.79	+7.43
SD	10.70	10.75	18.66
CV	0.42	0.60	—
Max	49	34	+35
Min	7	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	21.43%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.79	21.64	-7.86
SD	7.65	9.60	11.59
CV	0.55	0.44	—
Max	24	33	+10
Min	3	3	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	71.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	15.57	+8.43
SD	5.35	8.99	10.54
CV	0.22	0.58	—
Max	35	34	+30
Min	14	0	-10

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+0.4
Allowed	0.74	-0.4
Differential	0.87	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Miami Dolphins	14	10.51	+3.49
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	8.13	+2.87
3	Green Bay Packers	10	7.14	+2.86
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	7.63	+2.37
5	Oakland Raiders	10.5	8.93	+1.57

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	1	3.90	-2.90
2	Baltimore Colts	5	7.10	-2.10
3	Los Angeles Rams	6.5	8.32	-1.82
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	4.22	-1.72
5	Minnesota Vikings	7	8.62	-1.62

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	14	Sep 17 – Dec 16	1 in 97
2	Washington Redskins	9	Oct 8 – Dec 3	1 in 35
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	Oct 22 – Nov 26	1 in 31
4	Chicago Bears	3	Oct 15 – Oct 29	1 in 19
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Oct 15 – Nov 12	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	11	Oct 9 – Dec 17	1 in 42
2	Los Angeles Rams	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 39
3	Washington Redskins	2	Dec 9 – Dec 17	1 in 38
4	New England Patriots	9	Oct 8 – Dec 3	1 in 21
5	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.31%	32.62%	23.96%	3.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	32.17%	32.75%	30.13%	4.95%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	26.93%	32.00%	34.51%	6.56%
Houston Oilers	0.59%	2.63%	11.40%	85.38%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	83.42%	13.44%	2.90%	0.22%	0.02%
New York Jets	9.90%	44.05%	34.17%	9.42%	2.46%
Baltimore Colts	6.37%	36.82%	41.02%	12.28%	3.52%
Buffalo Bills	0.24%	3.29%	12.26%	41.54%	42.67%
New England Patriots	0.08%	2.40%	9.65%	36.53%	51.34%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	56.16%	31.77%	9.54%	2.54%
Kansas City Chiefs	36.22%	42.74%	15.65%	5.39%
San Diego Chargers	4.56%	14.47%	40.17%	40.80%
Denver Broncos	3.07%	11.01%	34.65%	51.27%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	41.87%	32.87%	19.12%	6.14%
Detroit Lions	40.72%	33.25%	19.49%	6.54%
Green Bay Packers	14.60%	25.59%	39.14%	20.68%
Chicago Bears	2.81%	8.30%	22.25%	66.64%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	47.37%	38.99%	11.12%	2.20%	0.31%
Washington Redskins	46.14%	38.97%	11.89%	2.63%	0.37%
New York Giants	5.57%	16.54%	48.47%	21.69%	7.74%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.76%	4.20%	19.27%	44.39%	31.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.16%	1.30%	9.25%	29.09%	60.20%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	40.35%	32.22%	24.02%	3.41%
Los Angeles Rams	35.59%	34.11%	26.49%	3.81%
Atlanta Falcons	23.46%	31.20%	39.00%	6.34%
New Orleans Saints	0.60%	2.47%	10.49%	86.44%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Miami Dolphins	51.52%	22.81%	11.49%	6.11%	3.67%	2.21%	1.13%	0.62%	0.29%	0.09%	0.05%	0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	15.32%	20.36%	17.37%	13.26%	10.70%	8.21%	5.76%	3.92%	2.63%	1.42%	0.70%	0.27%	0.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.71%	13.06%	13.76%	13.94%	12.73%	11.14%	8.71%	6.63%	5.00%	2.98%	1.55%	0.67%	0.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.84%	12.83%	14.78%	13.67%	12.52%	11.50%	9.94%	7.85%	5.22%	2.59%	1.40%	0.67%	0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.16%	10.01%	12.27%	12.25%	12.27%	12.04%	11.14%	9.48%	7.50%	4.01%	2.19%	1.27%	0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.35%	8.67%	10.84%	11.64%	12.02%	12.10%	12.08%	10.42%	8.20%	4.81%	2.76%	1.58%	0.51%
New York Jets	3.93%	5.95%	8.65%	11.78%	13.30%	13.57%	12.25%	11.07%	8.32%	5.30%	3.11%	1.79%	0.96%
Baltimore Colts	2.43%	4.10%	6.71%	10.10%	11.84%	12.65%	13.36%	12.97%	10.42%	6.83%	4.55%	2.58%	1.46%
San Diego Chargers	0.48%	1.22%	2.10%	3.40%	4.78%	6.76%	9.57%	12.44%	15.72%	15.95%	13.63%	9.61%	4.35%
Denver Broncos	0.21%	0.78%	1.42%	2.47%	3.63%	5.31%	7.97%	11.21%	15.00%	16.83%	15.86%	12.47%	6.83%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.08%	0.26%	0.57%	0.95%	1.73%	3.04%	5.03%	7.86%	13.94%	18.75%	19.90%	27.85%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.08%	0.21%	0.45%	0.78%	1.41%	2.57%	4.32%	6.97%	12.80%	18.61%	28.25%	23.52%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.03%	0.15%	0.37%	0.79%	1.36%	2.45%	4.04%	6.87%	12.47%	16.84%	20.93%	33.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Dallas Cowboys	26.23%	17.87%	14.72%	12.46%	9.88%	7.06%	4.68%	3.17%	2.09%	1.12%	0.52%	0.16%	0.06%
Washington Redskins	24.75%	17.90%	14.89%	12.78%	9.79%	7.30%	4.93%	3.43%	2.16%	1.21%	0.60%	0.20%	0.05%
Minnesota Vikings	11.98%	13.17%	13.02%	12.48%	11.53%	10.49%	8.63%	7.11%	5.35%	3.36%	1.88%	0.78%	0.21%
Detroit Lions	11.16%	13.11%	12.72%	12.22%	11.54%	10.79%	9.16%	7.22%	5.58%	3.54%	1.96%	0.83%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	9.42%	12.29%	12.50%	11.93%	11.84%	11.20%	9.56%	7.98%	6.48%	3.57%	1.89%	1.02%	0.32%
Los Angeles Rams	7.53%	10.87%	12.25%	12.03%	12.30%	12.13%	10.25%	8.72%	6.79%	3.66%	2.05%	1.07%	0.36%
Atlanta Falcons	4.14%	6.81%	8.33%	9.69%	11.11%	12.02%	12.56%	11.83%	10.77%	6.34%	3.55%	2.19%	0.66%
Green Bay Packers	2.59%	4.27%	5.70%	7.26%	9.03%	10.61%	12.37%	13.11%	12.96%	10.15%	7.21%	3.66%	1.08%
New York Giants	1.81%	2.70%	3.97%	5.72%	7.22%	9.50%	12.78%	14.59%	14.21%	11.25%	7.89%	5.24%	3.13%
Chicago Bears	0.23%	0.60%	1.05%	1.77%	2.86%	3.92%	6.29%	8.50%	11.25%	17.55%	19.76%	15.96%	10.25%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.13%	0.29%	0.56%	1.08%	1.82%	2.84%	4.85%	7.50%	10.66%	16.88%	19.04%	17.56%	16.79%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.05%	0.13%	0.27%	0.51%	1.02%	2.03%	3.75%	6.25%	11.41%	16.35%	22.22%	35.98%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.07%	0.17%	0.31%	0.59%	1.11%	1.90%	3.08%	5.44%	9.97%	17.31%	29.11%	30.93%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Miami Dolphins	29.46%	20.22%	12.05%	10.34%	6.36%	5.62%	3.70%	3.24%	2.02%	1.99%	1.33%	1.11%	0.75%	0.61%	0.38%	0.33%	0.18%	0.15%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	14.12%	12.46%	10.87%	9.01%	8.45%	7.07%	6.92%	5.39%	5.10%	4.00%	3.63%	2.83%	2.49%	1.84%	1.63%	1.16%	1.04%	0.69%	0.52%	0.31%	0.23%	0.12%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins	13.11%	12.24%	10.52%	9.15%	8.59%	7.22%	6.75%	5.79%	5.13%	4.26%	3.74%	2.98%	2.36%	1.95%	1.76%	1.29%	1.02%	0.72%	0.58%	0.35%	0.24%	0.12%	0.06%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	7.12%	8.41%	8.69%	9.09%	7.96%	8.29%	6.52%	6.75%	5.56%	5.51%	4.41%	4.31%	3.51%	3.26%	2.40%	2.18%	1.64%	1.46%	0.95%	0.77%	0.46%	0.35%	0.18%	0.12%	0.06%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	6.28%	6.40%	7.42%	6.65%	7.25%	6.39%	7.07%	6.04%	6.29%	5.33%	5.61%	4.59%	4.62%	3.80%	3.73%	2.88%	2.74%	1.99%	1.68%	1.13%	0.87%	0.57%	0.35%	0.18%	0.11%	0.04%
Detroit Lions	5.27%	6.38%	7.11%	6.83%	7.17%	6.48%	6.80%	6.02%	6.24%	5.55%	5.78%	4.90%	4.75%	3.90%	3.79%	3.04%	2.76%	2.05%	1.69%	1.24%	0.93%	0.58%	0.39%	0.22%	0.09%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	4.38%	5.50%	6.50%	6.53%	6.85%	6.41%	6.62%	6.16%	6.46%	5.69%	5.86%	5.10%	4.97%	4.20%	4.13%	3.38%	3.08%	2.39%	1.78%	1.36%	1.02%	0.64%	0.49%	0.30%	0.15%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.17%	5.00%	5.62%	6.21%	6.14%	6.78%	6.28%	6.80%	6.12%	6.50%	5.52%	5.71%	4.79%	4.77%	3.80%	3.65%	2.96%	2.63%	1.96%	1.66%	1.07%	0.81%	0.51%	0.34%	0.14%	0.05%
Los Angeles Rams	3.63%	4.57%	5.86%	5.96%	6.70%	6.38%	6.68%	6.10%	6.72%	6.04%	6.33%	5.36%	5.29%	4.65%	4.47%	3.59%	3.26%	2.43%	1.92%	1.35%	1.02%	0.69%	0.52%	0.26%	0.15%	0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.92%	4.00%	5.16%	6.08%	6.13%	6.90%	6.20%	6.83%	6.12%	6.58%	5.63%	5.90%	5.29%	5.35%	4.12%	4.34%	3.19%	2.94%	1.86%	1.60%	1.02%	0.80%	0.45%	0.35%	0.14%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.02%	2.99%	3.93%	4.88%	4.94%	5.86%	5.44%	6.07%	5.68%	6.26%	5.67%	6.24%	5.58%	5.88%	4.99%	5.23%	4.07%	3.99%	2.85%	2.46%	1.65%	1.29%	0.89%	0.67%	0.33%	0.16%
Atlanta Falcons	1.65%	2.61%	3.52%	3.83%	4.57%	4.75%	5.26%	5.49%	5.96%	5.67%	6.49%	6.10%	6.50%	5.87%	6.02%	5.15%	5.16%	4.22%	3.10%	2.50%	1.86%	1.43%	1.10%	0.66%	0.40%	0.16%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.63%	2.61%	3.38%	4.31%	4.44%	5.27%	5.10%	5.96%	5.45%	6.19%	5.65%	6.26%	5.94%	6.14%	5.17%	5.52%	4.54%	4.22%	3.26%	2.86%	1.93%	1.57%	1.11%	0.82%	0.44%	0.22%
New York Jets	1.49%	2.09%	2.74%	3.09%	3.77%	4.41%	4.87%	5.71%	5.57%	6.68%	5.95%	7.01%	5.95%	6.61%	5.45%	6.06%	4.69%	4.60%	3.33%	3.07%	2.11%	1.71%	1.21%	0.88%	0.62%	0.32%
Green Bay Packers	0.95%	1.54%	2.24%	2.47%	3.15%	3.22%	4.20%	3.99%	4.99%	4.86%	5.90%	5.64%	6.33%	6.12%	6.94%	6.23%	6.57%	5.44%	5.21%	4.05%	3.57%	2.54%	1.85%	1.14%	0.61%	0.27%
Baltimore Colts	0.83%	1.35%	1.82%	2.23%	2.88%	3.40%	3.97%	4.74%	5.00%	5.86%	5.61%	6.54%	6.15%	6.95%	6.15%	6.73%	5.74%	5.68%	4.40%	3.83%	3.00%	2.56%	1.77%	1.36%	0.91%	0.53%
New York Giants	0.67%	1.04%	1.43%	1.73%	2.26%	2.43%	3.33%	3.37%	4.12%	4.25%	5.49%	5.49%	6.57%	6.44%	7.52%	6.65%	7.00%	6.18%	5.80%	4.53%	4.23%	3.07%	2.61%	1.78%	1.36%	0.67%
San Diego Chargers	0.13%	0.24%	0.40%	0.55%	0.77%	0.99%	1.27%	1.60%	1.93%	2.30%	2.72%	3.34%	4.03%	4.79%	5.24%	6.26%	6.59%	8.21%	7.67%	8.61%	7.33%	7.66%	5.79%	5.49%	3.67%	2.42%
Denver Broncos	0.04%	0.11%	0.26%	0.35%	0.49%	0.66%	0.85%	1.22%	1.47%	1.80%	2.08%	2.74%	3.14%	4.04%	4.46%	5.75%	6.29%	7.54%	7.78%	8.87%	8.18%	8.56%	7.34%	7.13%	5.01%	3.84%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	0.13%	0.24%	0.39%	0.52%	0.66%	0.95%	1.08%	1.64%	1.63%	2.25%	2.44%	3.44%	3.47%	4.75%	4.87%	6.42%	6.61%	8.74%	8.18%	9.45%	8.16%	8.01%	6.61%	5.40%	3.89%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.04%	0.06%	0.13%	0.19%	0.31%	0.34%	0.56%	0.70%	1.04%	1.18%	1.71%	1.86%	2.63%	2.91%	4.24%	4.36%	5.90%	6.46%	8.49%	8.33%	9.53%	8.79%	8.95%	7.99%	7.80%	5.50%
Philadelphia Eagles	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.13%	0.20%	0.28%	0.35%	0.61%	0.70%	1.12%	1.46%	2.13%	2.42%	3.58%	4.20%	6.15%	6.44%	8.66%	8.98%	11.48%	11.33%	15.27%	14.26%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.12%	0.16%	0.21%	0.33%	0.45%	0.57%	0.80%	1.04%	1.44%	1.86%	2.59%	2.98%	4.19%	5.27%	7.38%	7.85%	10.15%	10.30%	12.10%	13.51%	16.55%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.08%	0.10%	0.15%	0.18%	0.32%	0.36%	0.57%	0.71%	1.00%	1.19%	1.77%	2.03%	3.10%	3.70%	5.33%	6.13%	8.85%	9.54%	13.01%	13.04%	14.42%	14.35%
Houston Oilers	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.06%	0.09%	0.11%	0.19%	0.24%	0.37%	0.45%	0.70%	0.86%	1.20%	1.57%	2.28%	2.77%	3.73%	4.82%	6.55%	7.60%	10.06%	11.37%	14.82%	14.41%	15.69%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.10%	0.16%	0.24%	0.34%	0.45%	0.62%	0.88%	1.18%	1.55%	2.04%	2.71%	3.59%	4.80%	6.40%	7.32%	9.22%	10.20%	12.32%	14.95%	20.80%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	51.52%	22.67%	9.22%	7.92%	8.66%
Oakland Raiders	15.32%	21.39%	19.45%	11.84%	32.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.71%	13.27%	13.23%	14.66%	49.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.84%	14.03%	19.44%	9.62%	50.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.16%	10.87%	16.14%	8.96%	58.88%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	4.35%	9.25%	13.33%	9.38%	63.69%
New York Jets	3.93%	3.71%	2.26%	17.38%	72.72%
Baltimore Colts	2.43%	2.40%	1.54%	14.26%	79.37%
San Diego Chargers	0.48%	1.31%	2.77%	2.81%	92.63%
Denver Broncos	0.21%	0.91%	1.94%	1.93%	95.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.06%	0.14%	0.59%	99.18%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.11%	0.47%	0.29%	99.12%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.38%	99.54%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	26.23%	14.16%	6.99%	21.59%	31.03%
Washington Redskins	24.75%	14.30%	7.09%	21.78%	32.07%
Minnesota Vikings	11.98%	14.68%	15.20%	9.90%	48.23%
Detroit Lions	11.16%	14.42%	15.14%	9.48%	49.79%
San Francisco 49ers	9.42%	14.02%	16.91%	7.62%	52.03%
Los Angeles Rams	7.53%	12.36%	15.70%	8.37%	56.04%
Atlanta Falcons	4.14%	7.89%	11.43%	6.49%	70.05%
Green Bay Packers	2.59%	4.83%	7.18%	5.63%	79.77%
New York Giants	1.81%	2.12%	1.65%	6.61%	87.82%
Chicago Bears	0.23%	0.80%	1.78%	1.09%	96.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.13%	0.27%	0.36%	1.03%	98.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.26%	99.59%
New Orleans Saints	0.02%	0.10%	0.48%	0.15%	99.26%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+1.65%

No Edge

49.45%2.75%47.80%

Elo Value

Home Edge

21 Elo

0.048 points per Elo point

05.7360

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.23 points

Lean Home

-8+0.28+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

30%

Miami Dolphins, 1st of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

26.4%

Heavy Favorite

012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.37 · As Expected: 1.37 to 1.88 · Elevated: 1.88 to 2.57 · High Variance: 2.57 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.53 · Close: 3.53 to 4.78 · Off Target: 4.78 to 6.23 · Well Off Target: 6.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.26 · As Expected: 2.26 to 3.76 · More Than Expected: 3.76 to 6.02 · Far More Than Expected: 6.02 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.63 wins

As Expected

01.714

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.96

Pinpoint

04.1610

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

100.00%

Miami Dolphins

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

7.32%

Houston Oilers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 26

Several Outliers

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 8

As Expected

03.08

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.06

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

79%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.49

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.12 · Above Noise: 0.12 to 0.23 · Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.73

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.09

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.086

Within Noise

00.1150.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	91.34%	64.91%	44.61%	30.34%
Oakland Raiders	67.99%	35.75%	18.88%	11.36%
Washington Redskins	67.93%	42.58%	24.42%	10.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.93%	31.68%	16.56%	10.43%
Dallas Cowboys	68.97%	39.10%	19.52%	7.57%
San Francisco 49ers	47.97%	26.09%	14.49%	6.16%
Detroit Lions	50.21%	26.09%	13.30%	5.20%
Minnesota Vikings	51.77%	24.21%	10.95%	3.86%
Green Bay Packers	20.23%	12.24%	7.30%	3.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	50.88%	18.46%	6.54%	2.99%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	36.31%	15.98%	5.30%	2.43%
Cincinnati Bengals	41.12%	16.16%	4.46%	1.84%
New York Giants	12.18%	6.77%	3.16%	1.18%
Los Angeles Rams	43.96%	12.72%	3.91%	0.95%
Atlanta Falcons	29.95%	8.65%	2.58%	0.62%
New York Jets	27.28%	8.23%	1.78%	0.58%
Baltimore Colts	20.63%	6.08%	1.27%	0.44%
Denver Broncos	4.99%	1.15%	0.28%	0.10%
San Diego Chargers	7.37%	1.32%	0.27%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	3.91%	0.88%	0.22%	0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.78%	0.54%	0.12%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.82%	0.15%	0.02%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.74%	0.08%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	0.46%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.41%	0.06%	0.01%	<0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.88%	0.09%	0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			38.5%4.70%	34.9%4.41%	41.3%0.22%	83.8%0.12%	35.5%1.98%				22.5%2.66%	17.3%6.27%	58.7%0.28%
Buffalo Bills			28.4%0.22%	15.2%0.17%	15.4%0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	24.6%0.07%				9.1%0.09%	10.0%0.25%	33.3%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	61.5%4.70%	71.6%0.22%			55.9%0.56%		44.1%7.25%	19.8%10.52%	85.4%0.13%	60.2%6.29%	28.3%10.47%		68.1%0.99%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	65.1%4.41%	84.8%0.17%			66.7%0.41%		53.1%5.88%	23.9%10.33%	88.8%0.13%	66.2%4.95%	34.4%9.39%		73.8%0.65%
Denver Broncos	58.7%0.22%	84.6%0.01%	44.1%0.56%	33.3%0.41%		77.8%<0.01%		12.5%2.77%	100.0%<0.01%	49.4%0.32%		17.0%0.70%
Houston Oilers	16.2%0.12%	57.1%<0.01%			22.2%<0.01%		10.7%0.15%	5.0%0.28%	83.3%<0.01%	19.1%0.13%	2.4%0.16%		33.3%0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	64.5%1.98%	75.4%0.07%	55.9%7.25%	46.9%5.88%		89.3%0.15%		23.2%23.41%	88.0%0.03%	63.9%3.36%		29.6%8.77%
Miami Dolphins			80.2%10.52%	76.1%10.33%	87.5%2.77%	95.0%0.28%	76.8%23.41%				62.1%28.32%	58.0%11.89%	90.0%3.83%
New England Patriots			14.6%0.13%	11.2%0.13%	0.0%<0.01%	16.7%<0.01%	12.0%0.03%				0.0%0.03%	2.4%0.13%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Jets			39.8%6.29%	33.8%4.95%	50.6%0.32%	80.9%0.13%	36.1%3.36%				21.4%3.90%	18.4%7.85%	61.5%0.49%
Oakland Raiders	77.5%2.66%	90.9%0.09%	71.7%10.47%	65.6%9.39%		97.6%0.16%		37.9%28.32%	100.0%0.03%	78.6%3.90%		45.9%12.96%
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.7%6.27%	90.0%0.25%			83.0%0.70%		70.4%8.77%	42.0%11.89%	97.6%0.13%	81.6%7.85%	54.1%12.96%		88.1%1.10%
San Diego Chargers	41.3%0.28%	66.7%<0.01%	31.9%0.99%	26.2%0.65%		66.7%0.01%		10.0%3.83%	100.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.49%		11.9%1.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		67.1%0.26%	29.3%8.04%	27.9%4.52%	20.8%1.68%		34.4%5.10%		31.6%2.00%	82.8%0.06%		55.7%0.30%	23.9%8.00%
Chicago Bears	32.9%0.26%		20.6%1.28%			37.4%0.42%		80.0%<0.01%	26.1%0.16%	100.0%<0.01%	16.9%0.48%	64.3%0.01%	18.2%1.29%
Dallas Cowboys	70.7%8.04%	79.4%1.28%		50.7%13.97%	42.5%6.09%	70.5%11.82%	56.0%15.35%	90.2%0.22%			45.9%12.18%
Detroit Lions	72.1%4.52%		49.3%13.97%			70.9%6.73%		90.6%0.11%	51.0%1.66%	88.6%0.04%	45.2%8.85%	75.4%0.22%	42.7%14.11%
Green Bay Packers	79.2%1.68%		57.5%6.09%			77.8%2.77%		86.7%0.04%	61.8%0.77%	92.6%0.03%	54.0%2.84%	83.3%0.09%	52.6%5.92%
Los Angeles Rams		62.6%0.42%	29.5%11.82%	29.1%6.73%	22.2%2.77%		33.9%6.73%		31.3%2.95%	75.8%0.09%		59.2%0.42%	23.8%12.03%
Minnesota Vikings	65.6%5.10%		44.0%15.35%			66.1%6.73%		83.7%0.09%	46.4%1.78%	80.0%0.04%	39.7%8.12%	72.7%0.22%	37.3%14.34%
New Orleans Saints		20.0%<0.01%	9.8%0.22%	9.4%0.11%	13.3%0.04%		16.3%0.09%		15.9%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%		14.3%<0.01%	8.0%0.22%
New York Giants	68.4%2.00%	73.9%0.16%		49.0%1.66%	38.2%0.77%	68.7%2.95%	53.6%1.78%	84.1%0.04%			41.2%2.83%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.2%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%		11.4%0.04%	7.4%0.03%	24.2%0.09%	20.0%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%			8.7%0.15%
San Francisco 49ers		83.1%0.48%	54.1%12.18%	54.8%8.85%	46.0%2.84%		60.3%8.12%		58.8%2.83%	91.3%0.15%		81.6%0.51%	48.6%12.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	44.3%0.30%	35.7%0.01%		24.6%0.22%	16.7%0.09%	40.8%0.42%	27.3%0.22%	85.7%<0.01%			18.4%0.51%
Washington Redskins	76.1%8.00%	81.8%1.29%		57.3%14.11%	47.4%5.92%	76.2%12.03%	62.7%14.34%	92.0%0.22%			51.4%12.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		0.0%<0.01%	33.1%0.17%	33.6%0.22%	37.5%0.02%		34.0%0.42%	16.8%3.36%		52.3%0.11%	20.4%1.30%	19.1%0.46%	70.6%0.02%
Buffalo Bills	100.0%<0.01%		25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			20.0%0.01%	8.9%0.08%		100.0%<0.01%	6.7%0.03%	20.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	66.9%0.17%	75.0%<0.01%		41.1%0.73%	58.2%0.09%	40.0%<0.01%	44.3%1.38%	20.8%8.47%		52.3%0.33%	29.1%3.12%	26.1%1.75%	71.2%0.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	66.4%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%	58.9%0.73%		64.4%0.09%	75.0%<0.01%	51.2%1.41%	25.5%8.09%		63.5%0.26%	33.3%3.26%	30.7%1.81%	70.9%0.11%
Denver Broncos	62.5%0.02%		41.8%0.09%	35.6%0.09%			28.2%0.08%	15.7%0.42%		47.7%0.04%	19.5%0.17%	20.9%0.22%	75.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers			60.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%			25.0%0.01%	5.9%0.05%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	66.0%0.42%	80.0%0.01%	55.7%1.38%	48.8%1.41%	71.8%0.08%	75.0%0.01%		25.0%6.97%	85.7%<0.01%	64.4%0.67%	35.2%4.35%	31.2%3.05%	69.5%0.10%
Miami Dolphins	83.2%3.36%	91.1%0.08%	79.2%8.47%	74.5%8.09%	84.3%0.42%	94.1%0.05%	75.0%6.97%		94.7%0.02%	84.5%4.49%	61.1%15.39%	57.1%17.11%	86.6%0.46%
New England Patriots							14.3%<0.01%	5.3%0.02%			7.7%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Jets	47.7%0.11%	0.0%<0.01%	47.7%0.33%	36.5%0.26%	52.3%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.67%	15.5%4.49%			22.3%1.58%	21.2%0.72%	52.6%0.04%
Oakland Raiders	79.6%1.30%	93.3%0.03%	70.9%3.12%	66.7%3.26%	80.5%0.17%	100.0%0.02%	64.8%4.35%	38.9%15.39%	92.3%0.01%	77.7%1.58%		48.3%6.30%	84.2%0.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	80.9%0.46%	80.0%0.01%	73.9%1.75%	69.3%1.81%	79.1%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%	68.8%3.05%	42.9%17.11%	100.0%<0.01%	78.8%0.72%	51.7%6.30%		80.6%0.24%
San Diego Chargers	29.4%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	28.8%0.12%	29.1%0.11%	25.0%<0.01%		30.5%0.10%	13.4%0.46%		47.4%0.04%	15.8%0.22%	19.4%0.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		61.1%0.05%	30.9%1.77%	29.7%1.35%	24.5%0.67%	50.6%0.45%	35.4%1.21%	100.0%<0.01%	32.1%0.22%	0.0%<0.01%	24.6%1.01%	56.2%0.02%	23.7%1.90%
Chicago Bears	38.9%0.05%		18.7%0.18%	38.6%0.08%	13.9%0.04%	41.4%0.07%	30.5%0.10%		40.9%0.02%		19.3%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	14.5%0.20%
Dallas Cowboys	69.1%1.77%	81.3%0.18%		49.5%5.46%	40.9%2.34%	68.9%2.60%	55.2%5.22%	86.7%0.01%	53.7%1.52%	100.0%<0.01%	45.1%5.72%	79.1%0.13%	44.5%14.15%
Detroit Lions	70.3%1.35%	61.4%0.08%	50.5%5.46%		45.6%1.54%	67.8%1.90%	54.4%3.83%	87.5%0.02%	55.8%1.01%	81.8%0.01%	45.4%4.31%	77.9%0.10%	44.1%6.50%
Green Bay Packers	75.5%0.67%	86.1%0.04%	59.1%2.34%	54.4%1.54%		78.0%1.04%	63.7%1.42%	88.9%<0.01%	59.3%0.46%	80.0%<0.01%	53.7%1.96%	82.9%0.04%	53.5%2.73%
Los Angeles Rams	49.4%0.45%	58.6%0.07%	31.1%2.60%	32.2%1.90%	22.0%1.04%		36.8%1.78%	100.0%<0.01%	34.9%0.32%	50.0%<0.01%	27.4%1.62%	84.6%0.01%	26.5%2.93%
Minnesota Vikings	64.6%1.21%	69.5%0.10%	44.8%5.22%	45.6%3.83%	36.3%1.42%	63.2%1.78%		72.7%0.01%	51.0%1.02%	84.6%0.01%	40.2%3.82%	69.2%0.08%	39.4%5.70%
New Orleans Saints	0.0%<0.01%		13.3%0.01%	12.5%0.02%	11.1%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%0.02%
New York Giants	67.9%0.22%	59.1%0.02%	46.3%1.52%	44.2%1.01%	40.7%0.46%	65.1%0.32%	49.0%1.02%	100.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	44.7%0.64%	70.0%0.01%	42.2%1.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	15.4%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		20.0%<0.01%		21.4%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	75.4%1.01%	80.7%0.14%	54.9%5.72%	54.6%4.31%	46.3%1.96%	72.6%1.62%	59.8%3.82%	100.0%<0.01%	55.3%0.64%	80.0%<0.01%		83.6%0.06%	49.3%6.80%
St. Louis Cardinals	43.8%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	20.9%0.13%	22.1%0.10%	17.1%0.04%	15.4%0.01%	30.8%0.08%		30.0%0.01%		16.4%0.06%		22.0%0.10%
Washington Redskins	76.3%1.90%	85.5%0.20%	55.5%14.15%	55.9%6.50%	46.5%2.73%	73.5%2.93%	60.6%5.70%	100.0%0.02%	57.8%1.54%	78.6%0.01%	50.7%6.80%	78.0%0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	39.1%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	31.5%0.24%	34.9%0.17%	29.2%0.10%	52.0%0.05%	41.3%0.14%		41.7%0.04%		38.2%0.18%	50.0%<0.01%	26.9%0.31%
Buffalo Bills		100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	62.9%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%	42.1%0.88%	42.3%0.56%	33.2%0.31%	64.1%0.18%	42.6%0.52%	50.0%<0.01%	41.9%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	41.1%0.64%	100.0%<0.01%	35.1%1.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.9%0.14%	90.0%0.01%	46.4%1.05%	46.4%0.70%	37.2%0.33%	63.1%0.19%	50.9%0.58%	0.0%<0.01%	56.7%0.17%		41.1%0.80%	57.1%<0.01%	41.7%1.31%
Denver Broncos	50.0%<0.01%		42.6%0.05%	32.6%0.05%	50.0%0.01%	50.0%0.01%	52.6%0.02%		16.7%<0.01%		30.0%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	25.6%0.08%
Houston Oilers			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	63.4%0.16%	58.8%0.02%	45.4%1.33%	44.4%0.88%	38.0%0.47%	67.6%0.25%	49.7%0.73%	100.0%<0.01%	47.8%0.22%		43.3%0.93%	63.6%0.01%	42.5%1.54%
Miami Dolphins	81.5%1.14%	85.9%0.10%	68.7%8.72%	68.3%5.95%	62.3%3.34%	80.6%1.76%	72.7%4.79%	50.0%<0.01%	69.3%1.38%	83.3%<0.01%	65.0%6.54%	91.4%0.06%	64.9%10.82%
New England Patriots			0.0%<0.01%										100.0%<0.01%
New York Jets	46.3%0.04%	83.3%<0.01%	29.8%0.36%	35.6%0.22%	23.5%0.11%	40.8%0.08%	42.2%0.21%		39.1%0.07%		30.1%0.26%	60.0%<0.01%	27.4%0.43%
Oakland Raiders	77.9%0.49%	81.6%0.04%	61.1%3.66%	60.8%2.54%	53.6%1.32%	76.5%0.71%	63.1%2.15%	100.0%<0.01%	61.9%0.60%	100.0%<0.01%	56.3%2.69%	85.7%0.02%	56.8%4.66%
Pittsburgh Steelers	78.5%0.42%	78.1%0.03%	64.3%3.19%	62.4%2.20%	56.8%1.27%	79.5%0.65%	67.8%1.78%	100.0%<0.01%	65.6%0.53%	100.0%<0.01%	59.2%2.38%	64.3%0.01%	59.5%4.08%
San Diego Chargers	60.0%0.01%		24.4%0.04%	34.5%0.03%	37.0%0.03%	62.5%<0.01%	33.3%0.04%		21.4%0.01%		20.6%0.03%		18.5%0.07%
Atlanta Falcons														60.9%0.05%		37.1%0.12%	37.1%0.14%	50.0%<0.01%		36.6%0.16%	18.5%1.14%		53.7%0.04%	22.1%0.49%	21.5%0.42%	40.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears														0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.01%			41.2%0.02%	14.1%0.10%		16.7%<0.01%	18.4%0.04%	21.9%0.03%
Dallas Cowboys														68.5%0.24%	100.0%<0.01%	57.9%0.88%	53.6%1.05%	57.4%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	54.6%1.33%	31.3%8.72%	100.0%<0.01%	70.2%0.36%	38.9%3.66%	35.7%3.19%	75.6%0.04%
Detroit Lions														65.1%0.17%	50.0%<0.01%	57.7%0.56%	53.6%0.70%	67.4%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.88%	31.7%5.95%		64.4%0.22%	39.2%2.54%	37.6%2.20%	65.5%0.03%
Green Bay Packers														70.8%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	66.8%0.31%	62.8%0.33%	50.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	62.0%0.47%	37.7%3.34%		76.5%0.11%	46.4%1.32%	43.2%1.27%	63.0%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams														48.0%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	35.9%0.18%	36.9%0.19%	50.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	32.4%0.25%	19.4%1.76%		59.2%0.08%	23.5%0.71%	20.5%0.65%	37.5%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings														58.7%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	57.4%0.52%	49.1%0.58%	47.4%0.02%		50.3%0.73%	27.3%4.79%		57.8%0.21%	36.9%2.15%	32.2%1.78%	66.7%0.04%
New Orleans Saints																50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants														58.3%0.04%		58.1%0.12%	43.3%0.17%	83.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.22%	30.7%1.38%		60.9%0.07%	38.1%0.60%	34.4%0.53%	78.6%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles																0.0%<0.01%					16.7%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers														61.8%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%	58.9%0.64%	58.9%0.80%	70.0%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	56.7%0.93%	35.0%6.54%		69.9%0.26%	43.7%2.69%	40.8%2.38%	79.4%0.03%
St. Louis Cardinals														50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	42.9%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		36.4%0.01%	8.6%0.06%		40.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.02%	35.7%0.01%
Washington Redskins														73.1%0.31%	66.7%<0.01%	64.9%1.12%	58.3%1.31%	74.4%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%	57.5%1.54%	35.1%10.82%	0.0%<0.01%	72.6%0.43%	43.2%4.66%	40.5%4.08%	81.5%0.07%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Miami Dolphins	76.06%	42.91%	27.48%	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.21%	28.02%	16.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Green Bay Packers	51.81%	29.21%	12.49%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	44.79%	20.98%	12.00%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	48.19%	26.04%	10.63%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	55.10%	25.87%	10.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	44.90%	18.88%	6.88%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Cleveland Browns (1st)	23.94%	8.09%	3.62%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns (1st)		23.9%100.00%
Miami Dolphins	76.1%100.00%
Oakland Raiders				44.8%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers			55.2%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			44.9%100.00%
Green Bay Packers				51.8%100.00%
San Francisco 49ers	55.1%100.00%
Washington Redskins		48.2%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns (1st)			35.8%10.79%	32.2%13.15%
Miami Dolphins			58.7%33.99%	54.6%42.07%
Oakland Raiders	64.2%10.79%	41.3%33.99%
Pittsburgh Steelers	67.8%13.15%	45.4%42.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		41.3%23.13%		42.9%21.77%
Green Bay Packers	58.7%23.13%		54.5%28.68%
San Francisco 49ers		45.5%28.68%		48.5%26.41%
Washington Redskins	57.1%21.77%		51.5%26.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.5%1.52%	41.7%2.30%	45.1%2.17%	45.1%2.10%
Miami Dolphins	67.1%8.12%	61.7%12.54%	64.9%11.09%	63.6%11.16%
Oakland Raiders	61.4%3.99%	54.5%6.09%	57.2%5.52%	57.1%5.38%
Pittsburgh Steelers	64.1%5.25%	56.8%8.29%	60.2%7.08%	58.1%7.40%
Dallas Cowboys					51.5%1.52%	32.9%8.12%	38.6%3.99%	35.9%5.25%
Green Bay Packers					58.3%2.30%	38.3%12.54%	45.5%6.09%	43.2%8.29%
San Francisco 49ers					54.9%2.17%	35.1%11.09%	42.8%5.52%	39.8%7.08%
Washington Redskins					54.9%2.10%	36.4%11.16%	42.9%5.38%	41.9%7.40%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Miami Dolphins 27.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

76.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

53.52%

Win Prob

54.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.14%

Win Prob

61.68%

Pittsburgh Steelers 16.64% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

68.17%

Win Prob

45.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.29%

Win Prob

56.81%

Green Bay Packers 12.49% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.48%

Win Prob

54.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

38.46%

Win Prob

38.32%

Oakland Raiders 12.00% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

66.96%

Win Prob

41.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

27.66%

Win Prob

54.53%

Washington Redskins 10.63% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

52.25%

Win Prob

51.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

38.25%

Win Prob

36.43%

San Francisco 49ers 10.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.10%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

50.49%

Win Prob

45.54%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

37.93%

Win Prob

35.10%

Dallas Cowboys 6.88% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

50.54%

Win Prob

41.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

38.85%

Win Prob

32.90%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 3.62% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.24%

Win Prob

32.16%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

27.04%

Win Prob

45.05%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1972-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 37-21	1491.30	1467.88	50.64%	45.57%	+40.68	1-0
1972-09-24	@ New England Patriots	L 20-21	1531.98	1380.79	67.90%	28.83%	-14.96	1-1
1972-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-3	1517.02	1584.47	39.42%	56.88%	+66.67	2-1
1972-10-08	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1583.69	1569.81	50.92%	45.29%	-19.61	2-2
1972-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1564.08	1310.96	78.88%	18.62%	+11.00	3-2
1972-10-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-9	1575.08	1544.19	51.71%	44.50%	+9.94	4-2
1972-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-49	1585.02	1495.05	61.53%	34.91%	-80.42	4-3
1972-11-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-20	1504.60	1553.12	40.44%	55.84%	-32.65	4-4
1972-11-12	New Orleans Saints	W 36-20	1471.95	1329.77	68.20%	28.55%	+25.64	5-4
1972-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-24	1497.59	1724.35	19.92%	77.46%	-14.77	5-5
1972-11-26	Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1482.82	1383.72	62.74%	33.75%	+13.13	6-5
1972-12-03	Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1495.95	1235.98	80.52%	17.12%	+12.06	7-5
1972-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-20	1508.01	1595.75	35.20%	61.23%	-35.33	7-6
1972-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-17	1472.68	1555.74	37.32%	59.04%	-14.49	7-7
1972-09-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-10	1583.31	1483.12	62.88%	33.61%	-36.74	0-1
1972-09-24	New York Jets	L 34-44	1546.57	1514.25	53.55%	42.69%	-37.58	0-2
1972-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-0	1508.99	1409.39	61.28%	35.15%	+32.53	1-2
1972-10-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-23	1541.52	1508.69	53.62%	42.62%	-20.61	1-3
1972-10-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-21	1520.91	1627.53	34.25%	62.22%	-35.23	1-4
1972-10-22	@ New York Jets	L 20-24	1485.68	1526.40	41.52%	54.74%	-18.59	1-5
1972-10-29	Miami Dolphins	L 0-23	1467.09	1677.08	22.56%	74.60%	-24.23	1-6
1972-11-06	@ New England Patriots	W 24-17	1442.86	1269.68	70.52%	26.36%	+15.65	2-6
1972-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1458.51	1534.71	36.71%	59.67%	-14.26	2-7
1972-11-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-19	1444.25	1489.67	40.87%	55.40%	+12.28	3-7
1972-11-26	New England Patriots	W 31-0	1456.53	1229.72	77.47%	19.91%	+24.79	4-7
1972-12-03	Buffalo Bills	W 35-7	1481.32	1324.12	69.99%	26.86%	+31.90	5-7
1972-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	1513.22	1516.71	46.78%	49.43%	-39.03	5-8
1972-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-16	1474.19	1764.36	14.85%	83.02%	-13.20	5-9
1972-09-17	New York Jets	L 24-41	1399.60	1479.34	37.76%	58.59%	-34.91	0-1
1972-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-20	1364.69	1598.86	20.28%	77.07%	+44.70	1-1
1972-10-01	Baltimore Colts	L 0-17	1409.39	1508.99	35.15%	61.28%	-32.52	1-2
1972-10-08	New England Patriots	W 38-14	1376.87	1411.54	43.97%	52.25%	+56.85	2-2
1972-10-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-28	1433.72	1574.57	28.70%	68.04%	-22.32	2-3
1972-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1411.40	1673.30	16.96%	80.69%	-3.78	2-4
1972-10-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-38	1407.62	1531.64	32.07%	64.49%	-29.70	2-5
1972-11-05	Miami Dolphins	L 16-30	1377.92	1701.32	13.37%	84.67%	-11.09	2-6
1972-11-12	@ New York Jets	L 3-41	1366.83	1531.16	26.08%	70.82%	-36.08	2-7
1972-11-19	@ New England Patriots	W 27-24	1330.75	1244.03	59.54%	36.83%	+14.31	3-7
1972-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-27	1345.06	1542.47	22.67%	74.48%	-20.94	3-8
1972-12-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-35	1324.12	1481.32	26.86%	69.99%	-31.90	3-9
1972-12-10	Detroit Lions	T 21-21	1292.22	1584.15	15.55%	82.25%	+3.63	3-9
1972-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-17	1295.85	1712.69	7.88%	90.84%	+52.12	4-9
1972-09-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-37	1467.88	1491.30	45.57%	50.64%	-40.68	0-1
1972-09-24	Los Angeles Rams	T 13-13	1427.20	1586.70	27.88%	68.90%	+2.23	0-1
1972-10-01	Detroit Lions	L 24-38	1429.43	1541.63	33.54%	62.95%	-28.17	0-2
1972-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1401.26	1519.32	31.40%	65.20%	-12.22	0-3
1972-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-0	1389.04	1492.91	33.15%	63.36%	+57.67	1-3
1972-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1446.71	1601.42	28.43%	68.33%	+26.07	2-3
1972-10-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1472.78	1415.02	55.53%	40.75%	+37.61	3-3
1972-11-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-14	1510.39	1588.68	36.43%	59.95%	-30.58	3-4
1972-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 17-23	1479.81	1538.99	40.55%	55.73%	-22.24	3-5
1972-11-19	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-34	1457.57	1548.97	36.22%	60.18%	-29.30	3-6
1972-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-13	1428.27	1477.39	41.94%	54.31%	-29.67	3-7
1972-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1398.60	1620.37	20.36%	76.97%	-16.43	3-8
1972-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-12	1382.17	1250.60	65.46%	31.15%	+20.99	4-8
1972-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-28	1403.16	1686.90	15.31%	82.51%	-9.01	4-9
1972-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 31-7	1486.60	1424.90	56.08%	40.20%	+44.11	1-0
1972-09-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 15-10	1530.71	1474.81	56.87%	39.43%	+19.75	2-0
1972-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-27	1550.46	1486.28	56.43%	39.86%	-57.28	2-1
1972-10-08	Denver Broncos	W 21-10	1493.18	1402.43	61.63%	34.81%	+25.91	3-1
1972-10-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-16	1519.09	1612.10	34.52%	61.93%	+36.20	4-1
1972-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-15	1555.29	1604.21	40.38%	55.90%	-15.67	4-2
1972-10-29	Houston Oilers	W 30-7	1539.62	1323.97	76.36%	20.93%	+22.46	5-2
1972-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-40	1562.08	1561.33	47.38%	48.82%	-50.65	5-3
1972-11-12	Oakland Raiders	L 14-20	1511.43	1577.10	39.66%	56.64%	-21.76	5-4
1972-11-19	Baltimore Colts	L 19-20	1489.67	1444.25	55.40%	40.87%	-12.28	5-5
1972-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-3	1477.39	1428.27	54.31%	41.94%	+29.67	6-5
1972-12-03	New York Giants	W 13-10	1507.06	1567.28	40.41%	55.87%	+21.45	7-5
1972-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1528.51	1522.63	49.77%	46.43%	-19.18	7-6
1972-12-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 61-17	1509.33	1220.77	81.98%	15.80%	+23.32	8-6
1972-09-17	Green Bay Packers	L 10-26	1501.75	1474.89	52.77%	43.46%	-46.87	0-1
1972-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1454.88	1423.68	51.76%	44.46%	+31.40	1-1
1972-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-6	1486.28	1550.46	39.86%	56.43%	+57.29	2-1
1972-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-31	1543.57	1561.44	46.36%	49.85%	-50.66	2-2
1972-10-15	Chicago Bears	L 0-17	1492.91	1389.04	63.36%	33.15%	-57.67	2-3
1972-10-22	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-17	1435.24	1343.88	60.17%	36.22%	+19.90	3-3
1972-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-20	1455.14	1413.04	53.31%	42.92%	+25.40	4-3
1972-11-05	Houston Oilers	W 20-0	1480.54	1301.52	72.49%	24.52%	+24.59	5-3
1972-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1505.13	1431.06	57.80%	38.52%	+17.27	6-3
1972-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-24	1522.40	1645.12	32.23%	64.32%	+20.07	7-3
1972-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 27-10	1542.47	1345.06	74.48%	22.67%	+20.94	8-3
1972-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-30	1563.41	1667.20	33.16%	63.35%	-40.78	8-4
1972-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1522.63	1528.51	46.43%	49.77%	+19.18	9-4
1972-12-17	@ New York Jets	W 26-10	1541.81	1506.43	52.35%	43.87%	+39.21	10-4
1972-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-6	1592.12	1454.28	67.67%	29.05%	+30.60	1-0
1972-09-24	@ New York Giants	W 23-14	1622.72	1439.78	71.64%	25.31%	+17.03	2-0
1972-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1639.75	1493.65	67.28%	29.42%	-25.67	2-1
1972-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-13	1614.08	1483.86	66.73%	29.94%	+13.45	3-1
1972-10-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-0	1627.53	1520.91	62.22%	34.25%	+35.23	4-1
1972-10-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-24	1662.76	1624.80	52.72%	43.51%	-23.41	4-2
1972-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 28-24	1639.35	1607.82	53.44%	42.80%	+19.14	5-2
1972-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-28	1658.49	1443.15	75.16%	22.04%	+12.09	6-2
1972-11-12	St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-24	1670.58	1376.04	83.36%	14.54%	+9.69	7-2
1972-11-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-7	1680.27	1293.30	88.73%	9.75%	+9.84	8-2
1972-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-31	1690.11	1578.27	64.40%	32.16%	-65.11	8-3
1972-12-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-6	1625.00	1341.45	81.56%	16.17%	+16.51	9-3
1972-12-09	Washington Redskins	W 34-24	1641.51	1756.93	33.14%	63.38%	+44.24	10-3
1972-12-17	New York Giants	L 3-23	1685.75	1529.29	69.90%	26.94%	-68.80	10-4
1972-09-17	Houston Oilers	W 30-17	1462.58	1443.84	51.62%	44.60%	+35.92	1-0
1972-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-37	1498.50	1450.67	54.13%	42.12%	-57.59	1-1
1972-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-45	1440.91	1522.96	37.45%	58.90%	-38.48	1-2
1972-10-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-21	1402.43	1493.18	34.81%	61.63%	-25.92	1-3
1972-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1376.51	1592.91	21.93%	75.27%	-8.51	1-4
1972-10-22	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-23	1368.00	1596.90	19.73%	77.67%	+45.04	2-4
1972-10-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1413.04	1455.14	42.92%	53.31%	-25.40	2-5
1972-11-05	@ New York Giants	L 17-29	1387.64	1523.75	29.25%	67.46%	-22.75	2-6
1972-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-10	1364.89	1585.77	20.45%	76.89%	+41.29	3-6
1972-11-19	Oakland Raiders	L 20-37	1406.18	1598.86	24.29%	72.73%	-22.46	3-7
1972-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1383.72	1482.82	33.75%	62.74%	-13.13	3-8
1972-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1370.59	1505.27	29.42%	67.28%	-11.44	3-9
1972-12-10	San Diego Chargers	W 38-13	1359.15	1474.10	33.20%	63.31%	+69.88	4-9
1972-12-17	New England Patriots	W 45-21	1429.03	1239.02	73.69%	23.40%	+25.70	5-9
1972-09-17	New York Giants	W 30-16	1570.72	1467.72	63.25%	33.26%	+27.94	1-0
1972-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-34	1598.66	1574.27	52.42%	43.80%	-57.03	1-1
1972-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1541.63	1429.43	62.95%	33.54%	+28.18	2-1
1972-10-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1569.81	1583.69	45.29%	50.92%	+19.60	3-1
1972-10-16	Green Bay Packers	L 23-24	1589.41	1531.53	57.15%	39.16%	-12.65	3-2
1972-10-22	San Diego Chargers	W 34-20	1576.76	1502.86	59.35%	37.01%	+31.06	4-2
1972-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-28	1607.82	1639.35	42.80%	53.44%	-19.14	4-3
1972-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 14-0	1588.68	1510.39	59.95%	36.43%	+30.58	5-3
1972-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-16	1619.26	1632.59	45.37%	50.84%	-14.32	5-4
1972-11-19	New Orleans Saints	W 27-14	1604.94	1304.13	83.84%	14.11%	+11.29	6-4
1972-11-23	New York Jets	W 37-20	1616.23	1555.08	57.60%	38.72%	+35.78	7-4
1972-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1652.01	1560.50	60.19%	36.20%	-67.86	7-5
1972-12-10	@ Buffalo Bills	T 21-21	1584.15	1292.22	82.25%	15.55%	-3.62	7-5
1972-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-17	1580.53	1494.54	59.44%	36.93%	+34.15	8-5
1972-09-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-10	1474.89	1501.75	43.46%	52.77%	+46.87	1-0
1972-09-24	Oakland Raiders	L 14-20	1521.76	1502.72	51.66%	44.56%	-28.11	1-1
1972-10-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-13	1493.65	1639.75	29.42%	67.28%	+25.67	2-1
1972-10-08	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1519.32	1401.26	65.20%	31.40%	+12.21	3-1
1972-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1531.53	1589.41	39.16%	57.15%	+12.66	4-1
1972-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 9-10	1544.19	1575.08	44.50%	51.71%	-9.94	4-2
1972-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-27	1534.25	1575.36	43.06%	53.17%	-36.02	4-3
1972-11-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-24	1498.23	1575.47	38.09%	58.24%	+40.76	5-3
1972-11-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-17	1538.99	1479.81	55.73%	40.55%	+22.24	6-3
1972-11-19	@ Houston Oilers	W 23-10	1561.23	1266.20	82.50%	15.32%	+12.29	7-3
1972-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-21	1573.52	1739.12	25.94%	70.97%	-13.02	7-4
1972-12-03	Detroit Lions	W 33-7	1560.50	1652.01	36.20%	60.19%	+67.86	8-4
1972-12-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-7	1628.36	1636.79	46.07%	50.14%	+44.60	9-4
1972-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-20	1672.96	1279.18	89.10%	9.42%	+6.56	10-4
1972-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-30	1443.84	1462.58	44.60%	51.62%	-35.92	0-1
1972-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1407.92	1580.33	25.22%	71.74%	-25.92	0-2
1972-10-01	New York Jets	W 26-20	1382.00	1551.83	26.73%	70.13%	+37.79	1-2
1972-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 0-34	1419.79	1530.40	33.74%	62.74%	-44.17	1-3
1972-10-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1375.62	1470.41	34.30%	62.17%	-31.74	1-4
1972-10-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1343.88	1435.24	36.22%	60.17%	-19.91	1-5
1972-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-30	1323.97	1539.62	20.93%	76.36%	-22.45	1-6
1972-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-20	1301.52	1480.54	24.52%	72.49%	-24.60	1-7
1972-11-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-18	1276.92	1282.59	48.11%	48.09%	-10.72	1-8
1972-11-19	Green Bay Packers	L 10-23	1266.20	1561.23	15.32%	82.50%	-12.29	1-9
1972-11-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-34	1253.91	1464.35	21.41%	75.84%	-17.93	1-10
1972-12-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-20	1235.98	1495.95	17.12%	80.52%	-12.07	1-11
1972-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-9	1223.91	1707.98	5.88%	93.13%	-3.14	1-12
1972-12-17	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-61	1220.77	1509.33	15.80%	81.98%	-23.33	1-13
1972-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 10-20	1544.40	1546.05	48.69%	47.51%	-34.28	0-1
1972-09-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1510.12	1393.67	63.51%	33.01%	+12.84	1-1
1972-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 45-24	1522.96	1440.91	58.90%	37.45%	+38.48	2-1
1972-10-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-7	1561.44	1543.57	49.85%	46.36%	+50.66	3-1
1972-10-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-23	1612.10	1519.09	61.93%	34.52%	-36.19	3-2
1972-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-21	1575.91	1311.72	80.89%	16.78%	-17.69	3-3
1972-10-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 26-14	1558.22	1471.80	59.50%	36.87%	+28.65	4-3
1972-11-05	Oakland Raiders	W 27-14	1586.87	1618.62	44.38%	51.84%	+41.52	5-3
1972-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-16	1628.39	1611.98	49.63%	46.57%	-33.13	5-4
1972-11-19	San Diego Chargers	L 17-27	1595.26	1413.80	72.76%	24.27%	-50.56	5-5
1972-11-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-26	1544.70	1621.32	36.65%	59.73%	-39.43	5-6
1972-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1505.27	1370.59	67.28%	29.42%	+11.44	6-6
1972-12-10	Baltimore Colts	W 24-10	1516.71	1513.22	49.43%	46.78%	+39.03	7-6
1972-12-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1555.74	1472.68	59.04%	37.32%	+14.50	8-6
1972-09-17	New Orleans Saints	W 34-14	1557.05	1423.32	67.16%	29.53%	+29.65	1-0
1972-09-24	@ Chicago Bears	T 13-13	1586.70	1427.20	68.90%	27.88%	-2.23	1-0
1972-10-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-31	1584.47	1517.02	56.88%	39.42%	-66.66	1-1
1972-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-7	1517.81	1589.15	38.89%	57.43%	+62.29	2-1
1972-10-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-3	1580.10	1335.84	78.04%	19.38%	+24.11	3-1
1972-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 15-12	1604.21	1555.29	55.90%	40.38%	+15.67	4-1
1972-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-45	1619.88	1551.86	56.96%	39.34%	-66.76	4-2
1972-11-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-7	1553.12	1504.60	55.84%	40.44%	+32.65	5-2
1972-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1585.77	1364.89	76.89%	20.45%	-41.29	5-3
1972-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 41-45	1544.48	1646.91	34.79%	61.66%	-15.61	5-4
1972-11-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-19	1528.87	1292.83	77.25%	20.11%	-29.33	5-5
1972-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-16	1499.54	1643.38	28.36%	68.40%	+47.63	6-5
1972-12-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-24	1547.17	1324.94	75.87%	21.38%	-52.63	6-6
1972-12-17	Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1494.54	1580.53	36.93%	59.44%	-34.15	6-7
1972-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1546.05	1544.40	47.51%	48.69%	+34.28	1-0
1972-09-24	Houston Oilers	W 34-13	1580.33	1407.92	71.74%	25.22%	+25.92	2-0
1972-10-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-14	1606.25	1631.30	43.71%	52.52%	+16.49	3-0
1972-10-08	@ New York Jets	W 27-17	1622.74	1514.03	62.49%	33.98%	+24.13	4-0
1972-10-15	San Diego Chargers	W 24-10	1646.87	1529.30	65.13%	31.46%	+26.43	5-0
1972-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 24-23	1673.30	1411.40	80.69%	16.96%	+3.78	6-0
1972-10-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 23-0	1677.08	1467.09	74.60%	22.56%	+24.24	7-0
1972-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-16	1701.32	1377.92	84.67%	13.37%	+11.10	8-0
1972-11-12	New England Patriots	W 52-0	1712.42	1254.03	92.60%	6.34%	+9.99	9-0
1972-11-19	New York Jets	W 28-24	1722.41	1567.24	69.75%	27.08%	+12.16	10-0
1972-11-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-10	1734.57	1350.88	89.18%	9.35%	+9.43	11-0
1972-12-03	@ New England Patriots	W 37-21	1744.00	1204.94	94.87%	4.37%	+3.80	12-0
1972-12-10	@ New York Giants	W 23-13	1747.80	1545.84	73.74%	23.35%	+16.56	13-0
1972-12-16	Baltimore Colts	W 16-0	1764.36	1474.19	83.02%	14.85%	+13.20	14-0
1972-09-18	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1597.12	1521.04	59.65%	36.73%	-22.85	0-1
1972-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-10	1574.27	1598.66	43.80%	52.42%	+57.03	1-1
1972-10-01	Miami Dolphins	L 14-16	1631.30	1606.25	52.52%	43.71%	-16.49	1-2
1972-10-08	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-19	1614.81	1454.39	70.37%	26.51%	-21.90	1-3
1972-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1592.91	1376.51	75.27%	21.93%	+8.51	2-3
1972-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1601.42	1446.71	68.33%	28.43%	-26.06	2-4
1972-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1575.36	1534.25	53.17%	43.06%	+36.02	3-4
1972-11-05	New Orleans Saints	W 37-6	1611.38	1350.97	80.56%	17.08%	+21.21	4-4
1972-11-12	Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1632.59	1619.26	50.84%	45.37%	+14.32	5-4
1972-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-41	1646.91	1544.48	61.66%	34.79%	+15.61	6-4
1972-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1662.52	1625.05	52.65%	43.57%	-42.15	6-5
1972-12-03	Chicago Bears	W 23-10	1620.37	1398.60	76.97%	20.36%	+16.42	7-5
1972-12-10	Green Bay Packers	L 7-23	1636.79	1628.36	50.14%	46.07%	-44.60	7-6
1972-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1592.19	1631.08	41.77%	54.48%	-16.19	7-7
1972-09-17	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-31	1424.90	1486.60	40.20%	56.08%	-44.11	0-1
1972-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-20	1380.79	1531.98	28.83%	67.90%	+14.96	1-1
1972-10-01	Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1395.75	1580.56	25.12%	71.85%	+15.79	2-1
1972-10-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1411.54	1376.87	52.25%	43.97%	-56.85	2-2
1972-10-15	New York Jets	L 13-41	1354.69	1489.91	30.71%	65.92%	-36.49	2-3
1972-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-33	1318.20	1502.15	24.01%	73.03%	-29.50	2-4
1972-10-29	@ New York Jets	L 10-34	1288.70	1544.98	17.41%	80.20%	-19.02	2-5
1972-11-06	Baltimore Colts	L 17-24	1269.68	1442.86	26.36%	70.52%	-15.65	2-6
1972-11-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-52	1254.03	1712.42	6.34%	92.60%	-10.00	2-7
1972-11-19	Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1244.03	1330.75	36.83%	59.54%	-14.31	2-8
1972-11-26	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-31	1229.72	1456.53	19.91%	77.47%	-24.78	2-9
1972-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 21-37	1204.94	1744.00	4.37%	94.87%	-3.81	2-10
1972-12-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-10	1201.13	1317.07	31.66%	64.92%	+37.89	3-10
1972-12-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-45	1239.02	1429.03	23.40%	73.69%	-25.69	3-11
1972-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-34	1423.32	1557.05	29.53%	67.16%	-29.65	0-1
1972-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1393.67	1510.12	33.01%	63.51%	-12.84	0-2
1972-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 2-37	1380.83	1554.17	26.35%	70.54%	-34.98	0-3
1972-10-08	@ New York Giants	L 21-45	1345.85	1461.29	31.72%	64.86%	-34.89	0-4
1972-10-15	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1310.96	1564.08	18.62%	78.88%	-11.00	0-5
1972-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1299.96	1497.87	22.62%	74.54%	+2.82	0-5
1972-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-3	1302.78	1329.41	45.11%	51.10%	+48.19	1-5
1972-11-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 6-37	1350.97	1611.38	17.08%	80.56%	-21.20	1-6
1972-11-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-36	1329.77	1471.95	28.55%	68.20%	-25.64	1-7
1972-11-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-27	1304.13	1604.94	14.11%	83.84%	-11.30	1-8
1972-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1292.83	1528.87	20.11%	77.25%	+29.33	2-8
1972-12-03	@ New York Jets	L 17-18	1322.16	1519.30	22.69%	74.45%	-5.09	2-9
1972-12-10	New England Patriots	L 10-17	1317.07	1201.13	64.92%	31.66%	-37.89	2-10
1972-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 20-30	1279.18	1672.96	9.42%	89.10%	-6.55	2-11
1972-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-30	1467.72	1570.72	33.26%	63.25%	-27.94	0-1
1972-09-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-23	1439.78	1622.72	25.31%	71.64%	-17.04	0-2
1972-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-12	1422.74	1392.28	51.65%	44.56%	+38.55	1-2
1972-10-08	New Orleans Saints	W 45-21	1461.29	1345.85	64.86%	31.72%	+34.90	2-2
1972-10-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1496.19	1526.86	42.92%	53.32%	+28.98	3-2
1972-10-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-21	1525.17	1434.14	61.67%	34.78%	+19.12	4-2
1972-10-29	Washington Redskins	L 16-23	1544.29	1648.21	34.60%	61.86%	-20.54	4-3
1972-11-05	Denver Broncos	W 29-17	1523.75	1387.64	67.46%	29.25%	+22.75	5-3
1972-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-27	1546.50	1701.60	27.09%	69.74%	-22.75	5-4
1972-11-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 13-7	1523.75	1366.35	68.65%	28.12%	+15.46	6-4
1972-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 62-10	1539.21	1283.46	80.15%	17.45%	+28.07	7-4
1972-12-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-13	1567.28	1507.06	55.87%	40.41%	-21.44	7-5
1972-12-10	Miami Dolphins	L 13-23	1545.84	1747.80	23.35%	73.74%	-16.55	7-6
1972-12-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-3	1529.29	1685.75	26.94%	69.90%	+68.79	8-6
1972-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-24	1479.34	1399.60	58.59%	37.76%	+34.91	1-0
1972-09-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 44-34	1514.25	1546.57	42.69%	53.55%	+37.58	2-0
1972-10-01	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-26	1551.83	1382.00	70.13%	26.73%	-37.80	2-1
1972-10-08	Miami Dolphins	L 17-27	1514.03	1622.74	33.98%	62.49%	-24.12	2-2
1972-10-15	@ New England Patriots	W 41-13	1489.91	1354.69	65.92%	30.71%	+36.49	3-2
1972-10-22	Baltimore Colts	W 24-20	1526.40	1485.68	54.74%	41.52%	+18.58	4-2
1972-10-29	New England Patriots	W 34-10	1544.98	1288.70	80.20%	17.41%	+19.03	5-2
1972-11-05	Washington Redskins	L 17-35	1564.01	1668.76	34.49%	61.97%	-32.85	5-3
1972-11-12	Buffalo Bills	W 41-3	1531.16	1366.83	70.82%	26.08%	+36.08	6-3
1972-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-28	1567.24	1722.41	27.08%	69.75%	-12.16	6-4
1972-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-37	1555.08	1616.23	38.72%	57.60%	-35.78	6-5
1972-12-03	New Orleans Saints	W 18-17	1519.30	1322.16	74.45%	22.69%	+5.09	7-5
1972-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-24	1524.39	1668.94	28.28%	68.48%	-17.96	7-6
1972-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-26	1506.43	1541.81	43.87%	52.35%	-39.21	7-7
1972-09-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-34	1535.45	1442.08	60.44%	35.96%	-32.73	0-1
1972-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-14	1502.72	1521.76	44.56%	51.66%	+28.11	1-1
1972-10-01	San Diego Chargers	T 17-17	1530.83	1508.25	52.16%	44.06%	-0.43	1-1
1972-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	W 34-0	1530.40	1419.79	62.74%	33.74%	+44.17	2-1
1972-10-15	Buffalo Bills	W 28-16	1574.57	1433.72	68.04%	28.70%	+22.33	3-1
1972-10-22	Denver Broncos	L 23-30	1596.90	1368.00	77.67%	19.73%	-45.04	3-2
1972-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 45-17	1551.86	1619.88	39.34%	56.96%	+66.76	4-2
1972-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-27	1618.62	1586.87	51.84%	44.38%	-41.52	4-3
1972-11-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1577.10	1511.43	56.64%	39.66%	+21.76	5-3
1972-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 37-20	1598.86	1406.18	72.73%	24.29%	+22.46	6-3
1972-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-3	1621.32	1544.70	59.73%	36.65%	+39.43	7-3
1972-12-03	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-19	1660.75	1482.29	71.13%	25.79%	+8.19	8-3
1972-12-11	New York Jets	W 24-16	1668.94	1524.39	68.48%	28.28%	+17.96	9-3
1972-12-17	Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1686.90	1403.16	82.51%	15.31%	+9.01	10-3
1972-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-28	1454.28	1592.12	29.05%	67.67%	-30.60	0-1
1972-09-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1423.68	1454.88	44.46%	51.76%	-31.40	0-2
1972-10-02	New York Giants	L 12-27	1392.28	1422.74	44.56%	51.65%	-38.55	0-3
1972-10-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-14	1353.73	1564.76	21.36%	75.90%	-17.89	0-4
1972-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-34	1335.84	1580.10	19.38%	78.04%	-24.12	0-5
1972-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1311.72	1575.91	16.78%	80.89%	+17.69	1-5
1972-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-21	1329.41	1302.78	51.10%	45.11%	-48.19	1-6
1972-11-05	St. Louis Cardinals	T 6-6	1281.22	1377.41	35.59%	60.82%	+1.37	1-6
1972-11-12	@ Houston Oilers	W 18-17	1282.59	1276.92	48.09%	48.11%	+10.71	2-6
1972-11-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1293.30	1680.27	9.75%	88.73%	-9.84	2-7
1972-11-26	@ New York Giants	L 10-62	1283.46	1539.21	17.45%	80.15%	-28.07	2-8
1972-12-03	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1255.39	1752.14	5.49%	93.57%	-4.79	2-9
1972-12-10	Chicago Bears	L 12-21	1250.60	1382.17	31.15%	65.46%	-20.99	2-10
1972-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1229.61	1377.57	27.89%	68.90%	-6.26	2-11
1972-09-17	Oakland Raiders	W 34-28	1442.08	1535.45	35.96%	60.44%	+32.73	1-0
1972-09-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-15	1474.81	1530.71	39.43%	56.87%	-19.75	1-1
1972-10-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 25-19	1455.06	1483.19	43.28%	52.96%	+28.80	2-1
1972-10-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-17	1483.86	1614.08	29.94%	66.73%	-13.45	2-2
1972-10-15	Houston Oilers	W 24-7	1470.41	1375.62	62.17%	34.30%	+31.74	3-2
1972-10-22	New England Patriots	W 33-3	1502.15	1318.20	73.03%	24.01%	+29.49	4-2
1972-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 38-21	1531.64	1407.62	64.49%	32.07%	+29.69	5-2
1972-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 40-17	1561.33	1562.08	48.82%	47.38%	+50.65	6-2
1972-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-7	1611.98	1628.39	46.57%	49.63%	+33.14	7-2
1972-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-26	1645.12	1522.40	64.32%	32.23%	-20.07	7-3
1972-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-10	1625.05	1662.52	43.57%	52.65%	+42.15	8-3
1972-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-0	1667.20	1563.41	63.35%	33.16%	+40.78	9-3
1972-12-10	@ Houston Oilers	W 9-3	1707.98	1223.91	93.13%	5.88%	+3.14	10-3
1972-12-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-2	1711.12	1404.22	83.43%	14.48%	+15.09	11-3
1972-09-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-34	1501.38	1548.15	40.68%	55.59%	-50.71	0-1
1972-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 37-14	1450.67	1498.50	42.12%	54.13%	+57.58	1-1
1972-10-01	@ Oakland Raiders	T 17-17	1508.25	1530.83	44.06%	52.16%	+0.44	1-1
1972-10-08	@ Baltimore Colts	W 23-20	1508.69	1541.52	42.62%	53.62%	+20.61	2-1
1972-10-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1529.30	1646.87	31.46%	65.13%	-26.44	2-2
1972-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-34	1502.86	1576.76	37.01%	59.35%	-31.06	2-3
1972-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-26	1471.80	1558.22	36.87%	59.50%	-28.65	2-4
1972-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-34	1443.15	1658.49	22.04%	75.16%	-12.09	2-5
1972-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1431.06	1505.13	38.52%	57.80%	-17.26	2-6
1972-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1413.80	1595.26	24.27%	72.76%	+50.55	3-6
1972-11-26	Houston Oilers	W 34-20	1464.35	1253.91	75.84%	21.41%	+17.94	4-6
1972-12-03	Oakland Raiders	L 19-21	1482.29	1660.75	25.79%	71.13%	-8.19	4-7
1972-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-38	1474.10	1359.15	63.31%	33.20%	-69.88	4-8
1972-12-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 2-24	1404.22	1711.12	14.48%	83.43%	-15.09	4-9
1972-09-17	San Diego Chargers	W 34-3	1548.15	1501.38	55.59%	40.68%	+50.71	1-0
1972-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1598.86	1364.69	77.07%	20.28%	-44.69	1-1
1972-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 37-2	1554.17	1380.83	70.54%	26.35%	+34.98	2-1
1972-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-31	1589.15	1517.81	57.43%	38.89%	-62.29	2-2
1972-10-15	New York Giants	L 17-23	1526.86	1496.19	53.32%	42.92%	-28.99	2-3
1972-10-22	New Orleans Saints	T 20-20	1497.87	1299.96	74.54%	22.62%	-2.82	2-3
1972-10-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 49-14	1495.05	1585.02	34.91%	61.53%	+80.42	3-3
1972-11-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-34	1575.47	1498.23	58.24%	38.09%	-40.76	3-4
1972-11-12	Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1534.71	1458.51	59.67%	36.71%	+14.26	4-4
1972-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-21	1548.97	1457.57	60.18%	36.22%	+29.30	5-4
1972-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1578.27	1690.11	32.16%	64.40%	+65.11	6-4
1972-12-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-26	1643.38	1499.54	68.40%	28.36%	-47.63	6-5
1972-12-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-0	1595.75	1508.01	61.23%	35.20%	+35.33	7-5
1972-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1631.08	1592.19	54.48%	41.77%	+16.19	8-5
1972-09-17	@ Baltimore Colts	W 10-3	1483.12	1583.31	33.61%	62.88%	+36.74	1-0
1972-09-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-24	1519.86	1543.89	43.85%	52.37%	-36.67	1-1
1972-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-25	1483.19	1455.06	52.96%	43.28%	-28.80	1-2
1972-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-17	1454.39	1614.81	26.51%	70.37%	+21.90	2-2
1972-10-15	Washington Redskins	L 3-33	1476.29	1582.65	34.28%	62.18%	-42.15	2-3
1972-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 21-27	1434.14	1525.17	34.78%	61.67%	-19.12	2-4
1972-10-29	Chicago Bears	L 10-27	1415.02	1472.78	40.75%	55.53%	-37.61	2-5
1972-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 6-6	1377.41	1281.22	60.82%	35.59%	-1.37	2-5
1972-11-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-33	1376.04	1670.58	14.54%	83.36%	-9.69	2-6
1972-11-19	New York Giants	L 7-13	1366.35	1523.75	28.12%	68.65%	-15.47	2-7
1972-11-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-31	1350.88	1734.57	9.35%	89.18%	-9.43	2-8
1972-12-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-27	1341.45	1625.00	16.17%	81.56%	-16.51	2-9
1972-12-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1324.94	1547.17	21.38%	75.87%	+52.63	3-9
1972-12-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1377.57	1229.61	68.90%	27.89%	+6.27	4-9
1972-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1521.04	1597.12	36.73%	59.65%	+22.85	1-0
1972-09-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-10	1543.89	1519.86	52.37%	43.85%	+36.67	2-0
1972-10-01	@ New England Patriots	L 23-24	1580.56	1395.75	71.85%	25.12%	-15.80	2-1
1972-10-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-0	1564.76	1353.73	75.90%	21.36%	+17.89	3-1
1972-10-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-3	1582.65	1476.29	62.18%	34.28%	+42.15	4-1
1972-10-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1624.80	1662.76	43.51%	52.72%	+23.41	5-1
1972-10-29	@ New York Giants	W 23-16	1648.21	1544.29	61.86%	34.60%	+20.55	6-1
1972-11-05	@ New York Jets	W 35-17	1668.76	1564.01	61.97%	34.49%	+32.84	7-1
1972-11-12	New York Giants	W 27-13	1701.60	1546.50	69.74%	27.09%	+22.75	8-1
1972-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-13	1724.35	1497.59	77.46%	19.92%	+14.77	9-1
1972-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 21-16	1739.12	1573.52	70.97%	25.94%	+13.02	10-1
1972-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-7	1752.14	1255.39	93.57%	5.49%	+4.79	11-1
1972-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-34	1756.93	1641.51	63.38%	33.14%	-44.24	11-2
1972-12-17	Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1712.69	1295.85	90.84%	7.88%	-52.12	11-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1972-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-20	1581.02	1777.56	23.79%	76.21%	-12.49	0-1
1972-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-28	1616.95	1647.27	44.83%	55.17%	+16.72	1-0
1972-12-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-26	1633.67	1700.67	39.68%	60.32%	-40.78	1-1
1972-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-16	1679.52	1660.57	51.90%	48.10%	-40.10	0-1
1972-12-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-14	1777.56	1581.02	76.21%	23.79%	+12.49	1-0
1972-12-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-17	1790.05	1749.74	54.96%	45.04%	+19.30	2-0
1973-01-14	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1809.35	1741.46	59.65%	40.35%	+22.88	3-0
1972-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1695.91	1726.21	44.83%	55.17%	-23.54	0-1
1972-12-23	Oakland Raiders	W 13-7	1726.21	1695.91	55.17%	44.83%	+23.53	1-0
1972-12-31	Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1749.74	1790.05	45.04%	54.96%	-19.30	1-1
1972-12-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-30	1647.27	1616.95	55.17%	44.83%	-16.72	0-1
1972-12-24	Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1660.57	1679.52	48.10%	51.90%	+40.10	1-0
1972-12-31	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-3	1700.67	1633.67	60.32%	39.68%	+40.79	2-0
1973-01-14	Miami Dolphins	L 7-14	1741.46	1809.35	40.35%	59.65%	-22.88	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1972-12-17	7.88%	Buffalo Bills	1295.85	24	@ Washington Redskins	1712.69	17
2	1972-10-22	16.78%	Philadelphia Eagles	1311.72	21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1575.91	20
3	1972-10-22	19.73%	Denver Broncos	1368.00	30	@ Oakland Raiders	1596.90	23
4	1972-11-26	20.11%	@ New Orleans Saints	1292.83	19	Los Angeles Rams	1528.87	16
5	1972-09-24	20.28%	@ Buffalo Bills	1364.69	27	San Francisco 49ers	1598.86	20
6	1972-11-12	20.45%	Denver Broncos	1364.89	16	@ Los Angeles Rams	1585.77	10
7	1972-12-10	21.38%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1324.94	24	Los Angeles Rams	1547.17	14
8	1972-11-19	24.27%	San Diego Chargers	1413.80	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1595.26	17
9	1972-10-01	25.12%	@ New England Patriots	1395.75	24	Washington Redskins	1580.56	23
10	1972-10-08	26.51%	St. Louis Cardinals	1454.39	19	@ Minnesota Vikings	1614.81	17
11	1972-10-01	26.73%	@ Houston Oilers	1382.00	26	New York Jets	1551.83	20
12	1972-12-17	26.94%	New York Giants	1529.29	23	@ Dallas Cowboys	1685.75	3
13	1972-12-04	28.36%	Los Angeles Rams	1499.54	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1643.38	16
14	1972-10-23	28.43%	@ Chicago Bears	1446.71	13	Minnesota Vikings	1601.42	10
15	1972-09-24	28.83%	@ New England Patriots	1380.79	21	Atlanta Falcons	1531.98	20
16	1972-10-01	29.42%	@ Green Bay Packers	1493.65	16	Dallas Cowboys	1639.75	13
17	1972-12-10	31.66%	New England Patriots	1201.13	17	@ New Orleans Saints	1317.07	10
18	1972-11-23	32.16%	San Francisco 49ers	1578.27	31	@ Dallas Cowboys	1690.11	10
19	1972-11-19	32.23%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1522.40	26	Pittsburgh Steelers	1645.12	24
20	1972-12-09	33.14%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1641.51	34	Washington Redskins	1756.93	24
21	1972-10-15	33.15%	Chicago Bears	1389.04	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1492.91	0
22	1972-12-10	33.20%	@ Denver Broncos	1359.15	38	San Diego Chargers	1474.10	13
23	1972-09-17	33.61%	St. Louis Cardinals	1483.12	10	@ Baltimore Colts	1583.31	3
24	1972-10-15	34.52%	Cincinnati Bengals	1519.09	23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1612.10	16
25	1972-10-29	34.91%	San Francisco 49ers	1495.05	49	@ Atlanta Falcons	1585.02	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1972-10-29	80.42	San Francisco 49ers	49	1495.05	34.91%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1585.02	61.53%
2	1972-12-10	69.88	@ Denver Broncos	38	1359.15	33.20%	San Diego Chargers	13	1474.10	63.31%
3	1972-12-17	68.80	New York Giants	23	1529.29	26.94%	@ Dallas Cowboys	3	1685.75	69.90%
4	1972-12-03	67.86	@ Green Bay Packers	33	1560.50	36.20%	Detroit Lions	7	1652.01	60.19%
5	1972-10-29	66.76	@ Oakland Raiders	45	1551.86	39.34%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1619.88	56.96%
6	1972-10-01	66.67	@ Atlanta Falcons	31	1517.02	39.42%	Los Angeles Rams	3	1584.47	56.88%
7	1972-11-23	65.11	San Francisco 49ers	31	1578.27	32.16%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1690.11	64.40%
8	1972-10-08	62.29	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1517.81	38.89%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1589.15	57.43%
9	1972-10-15	57.67	Chicago Bears	17	1389.04	33.15%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1492.91	63.36%
10	1972-09-24	57.59	@ San Diego Chargers	37	1450.67	42.12%	Denver Broncos	14	1498.50	54.13%
11	1972-10-01	57.29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1486.28	39.86%	Cincinnati Bengals	6	1550.46	56.43%
12	1972-09-24	57.03	Minnesota Vikings	34	1574.27	43.80%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1598.66	52.42%
13	1972-10-08	56.85	@ Buffalo Bills	38	1376.87	43.97%	New England Patriots	14	1411.54	52.25%
14	1972-12-10	52.63	@ St. Louis Cardinals	24	1324.94	21.38%	Los Angeles Rams	14	1547.17	75.87%
15	1972-12-17	52.12	Buffalo Bills	24	1295.85	7.88%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1712.69	90.84%
16	1972-09-17	50.71	@ San Francisco 49ers	34	1548.15	55.59%	San Diego Chargers	3	1501.38	40.68%
17	1972-10-08	50.66	Kansas City Chiefs	31	1561.44	49.85%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1543.57	46.36%
18	1972-11-05	50.65	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	40	1561.33	48.82%	Cincinnati Bengals	17	1562.08	47.38%
19	1972-11-19	50.56	San Diego Chargers	27	1413.80	24.27%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1595.26	72.76%
20	1972-10-29	48.19	@ New Orleans Saints	21	1302.78	45.11%	Philadelphia Eagles	3	1329.41	51.10%
21	1972-12-04	47.63	Los Angeles Rams	26	1499.54	28.36%	@ San Francisco 49ers	16	1643.38	68.40%
22	1972-09-17	46.87	Green Bay Packers	26	1474.89	43.46%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1501.75	52.77%
23	1972-10-22	45.04	Denver Broncos	30	1368.00	19.73%	@ Oakland Raiders	23	1596.90	77.67%
24	1972-09-24	44.70	@ Buffalo Bills	27	1364.69	20.28%	San Francisco 49ers	20	1598.86	77.07%
25	1972-12-10	44.60	Green Bay Packers	23	1628.36	46.07%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1636.79	50.14%