1971 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Philadelphia Eagles

2.44 wins above expected

6 wins · 4.06 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cincinnati Bengals

3.55 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.55 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	5	0	.643	-	285	273	+12	7.93	+1.07
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	8	0	.429	3	246	292	-46	5.06	+0.94
3	Houston Oilers	4	9	1	.321	4.5	251	330	-79	5.32	-0.82
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	10	0	.286	5	284	265	+19	7.55	-3.55

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	10	3	1	.750	-	315	174	+141	8.70	+1.80
2	Baltimore Colts Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	0.5	313	140	+173	9.43	+0.57
3	New York Jets	6	8	0	.429	4.5	212	299	-87	6.45	-0.45
4	New England Patriots	6	8	0	.429	4.5	238	325	-87	4.21	+1.79
5	Buffalo Bills	1	13	0	.071	9.5	184	394	-210	3.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	10	3	1	.750	-	302	208	+94	8.45	+2.05
2	Oakland Raiders	8	4	2	.643	1.5	344	278	+66	8.86	+0.14
3	San Diego Chargers	6	8	0	.429	4.5	311	341	-30	7.51	-1.51
4	Denver Broncos	4	9	1	.321	6	203	275	-72	5.61	-1.11

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	3	0	.786	-	245	139	+106	10.44	+0.56
2	Detroit Lions	7	6	1	.536	3.5	341	286	+55	9.43	-1.93
3	Chicago Bears	6	8	0	.429	5	185	276	-91	5.80	+0.20
4	Green Bay Packers	4	8	2	.357	6	274	298	-24	5.47	-0.47

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	3	0	.786	-	406	222	+184	9.77	+1.23
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	9	4	1	.679	1.5	276	190	+86	7.55	+1.95
3	Philadelphia Eagles	6	7	1	.464	4.5	221	302	-81	4.06	+2.44
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	6.5	231	279	-48	7.14	-2.64
5	New York Giants	4	10	0	.286	7	228	362	-134	6.70	-2.70

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	9	5	0	.643	-	300	216	+84	8.55	+0.45
2	Los Angeles Rams	8	5	1	.607	0.5	313	260	+53	8.77	-0.27
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	6	1	.536	1.5	274	277	-3	5.92	+1.58
4	New Orleans Saints	4	8	2	.357	4	266	347	-81	3.66	+1.34

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Miami Dolphins 27

Kansas City Chiefs 24

Dec 25

Baltimore Colts 20

Cleveland Browns (1st) 3

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Miami Dolphins 21

Baltimore Colts 0

Jan 2

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 20

Minnesota Vikings 12

Dec 25

San Francisco 49ers 24

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 14

San Francisco 49ers 3

Jan 2

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 24

Miami Dolphins 3

Jan 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1706	11	10.44	+0.56	78.86%	3	7	9	10	11	13	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1651	10	9.43	+0.57	78.78%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1650	11	9.77	+1.23	88.59%	2	7	8	10	11	12	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1630	7.5	9.43	-1.93	16.66%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1612	8.5	8.77	-0.27	50.45%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1600	10.5	8.45	+2.05	91.26%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1595	9	8.55	+0.45	76.31%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1578	10.5	8.70	+1.80	89.15%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1572	9	8.86	+0.14	70.13%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1546	9.5	7.55	+1.95	90.30%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1515	9	7.93	+1.07	85.76%	1	5	6	8	9	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1503	6	7.51	-1.51	35.38%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1485	7.5	5.92	+1.58	86.15%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1468	4	7.55	-3.55	6.75%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1466	4.5	7.14	-2.64	10.09%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1464	6	6.45	-0.45	58.86%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1448	5	5.47	-0.47	58.97%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1445	6	5.80	+0.20	72.65%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1439	4	6.70	-2.70	15.23%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1426	4.5	5.61	-1.11	33.76%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1421	6.5	4.06	+2.44	94.81%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1391	6	5.06	+0.94	84.76%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1388	4.5	5.32	-0.82	39.76%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1366	6	4.21	+1.79	94.41%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1351	5	3.66	+1.34	90.55%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1284	1	3.68	-2.68	9.78%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
Kansas City Chiefs	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.3 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	-	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.10%	1.92%	2.47%	1.65%	2.75%	0.27%	0.27%	10.44%
7–13	1.92%	3.30%	4.12%	5.77%	3.57%	—	0.55%	19.23%
14–20	2.47%	4.12%	10.44%	6.87%	1.92%	1.92%	0.55%	28.30%
21–27	1.65%	5.77%	6.87%	2.20%	2.75%	1.10%	0.55%	20.88%
28–34	2.75%	3.57%	1.92%	2.75%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	13.19%
35–41	0.27%	—	1.92%	1.10%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	4.95%
42+	0.27%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	0.55%	—	3.02%
Total	10.44%	19.23%	28.30%	20.88%	13.19%	4.95%	3.02%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.36	19.36	+0.00
SD	10.50	10.50	15.32
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	52	52	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	19.79	-0.21
SD	10.10	8.82	12.66
CV	0.52	0.45	—
Max	38	41	+22
Min	3	6	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	10.00	+12.36
SD	10.94	7.79	14.39
CV	0.49	0.78	—
Max	43	21	+43
Min	3	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.14	28.14	-15.00
SD	12.76	9.57	12.54
CV	0.97	0.34	—
Max	37	49	+7
Min	0	19	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.21	19.71	-6.50
SD	10.64	7.83	14.15
CV	0.80	0.40	—
Max	35	34	+21
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.29	18.93	+1.36
SD	9.62	10.06	13.70
CV	0.47	0.53	—
Max	37	35	+31
Min	6	0	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	19.50	+0.86
SD	10.52	9.66	15.81
CV	0.52	0.50	—
Max	37	34	+31
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.00	15.86	+13.14
SD	14.08	9.25	15.10
CV	0.49	0.58	—
Max	52	37	+42
Min	13	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.50	19.64	-5.14
SD	6.53	12.07	14.26
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	27	45	+27
Min	3	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.36	20.43	+3.93
SD	9.32	10.16	13.45
CV	0.38	0.50	—
Max	41	38	+27
Min	10	3	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	21.29	-1.71
SD	10.87	10.48	11.91
CV	0.56	0.49	—
Max	40	42	+21
Min	0	3	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	23.57	-5.64
SD	11.53	11.35	15.39
CV	0.64	0.48	—
Max	49	41	+26
Min	0	3	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	14.86	+6.71
SD	7.75	7.23	10.08
CV	0.36	0.49	—
Max	38	32	+22
Min	10	3	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	18.57	+3.79
SD	7.61	9.36	9.99
CV	0.34	0.50	—
Max	45	38	+17
Min	14	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	12.43	+10.07
SD	10.91	8.47	17.09
CV	0.48	0.68	—
Max	41	34	+38
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	28.57%	—	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	57.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	9.93	+7.57
SD	7.41	8.25	10.20
CV	0.42	0.83	—
Max	29	30	+19
Min	3	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	23.21	-6.21
SD	11.34	12.70	18.59
CV	0.67	0.55	—
Max	38	44	+21
Min	3	0	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.00	24.79	-5.79
SD	6.94	8.97	11.05
CV	0.37	0.36	—
Max	29	45	+10
Min	6	13	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	—	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.29	25.86	-9.57
SD	11.70	9.35	13.11
CV	0.72	0.36	—
Max	42	42	+18
Min	3	17	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	14.29%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.14	21.36	-6.21
SD	9.53	14.09	17.02
CV	0.63	0.66	—
Max	35	52	+14
Min	0	6	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.57	19.86	+4.71
SD	10.46	9.22	15.36
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	41	37	+34
Min	6	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	35.71%	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.79	21.57	-5.79
SD	12.06	11.41	17.32
CV	0.76	0.53	—
Max	41	42	+17
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.57	20.86	-3.29
SD	5.89	8.87	12.62
CV	0.34	0.43	—
Max	26	38	+17
Min	3	9	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.21	24.36	-2.14
SD	14.60	11.82	20.15
CV	0.66	0.49	—
Max	49	49	+28
Min	0	3	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.43	15.43	+6.00
SD	8.84	9.09	12.35
CV	0.41	0.59	—
Max	38	27	+28
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	19.93	-3.43
SD	7.37	8.30	12.07
CV	0.45	0.42	—
Max	28	37	+17
Min	0	7	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.71	13.57	+6.14
SD	9.24	7.53	11.15
CV	0.47	0.55	—
Max	38	27	+27
Min	0	0	-13

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.40	+0.3
Allowed	0.71	-0.3
Differential	0.78	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	6.5	4.06	+2.44
2	Kansas City Chiefs	10.5	8.45	+2.05
3	Washington Redskins	9.5	7.55	+1.95
4	Miami Dolphins	10.5	8.70	+1.80
5	New England Patriots	6	4.21	+1.79

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cincinnati Bengals	4	7.55	-3.55
2	New York Giants	4	6.70	-2.70
3	Buffalo Bills	1	3.68	-2.68
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	7.14	-2.64
5	Detroit Lions	7.5	9.43	-1.93

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	8	Oct 10 – Nov 29	1 in 83
2	Washington Redskins	5	Sep 19 – Oct 17	1 in 68
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Dec 5 – Dec 19	1 in 55
4	Dallas Cowboys	7	Nov 7 – Dec 18	1 in 24
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Nov 21 – Dec 19	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	7	Sep 26 – Nov 7	1 in 227
2	New York Giants	5	Nov 21 – Dec 19	1 in 48
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	Oct 24 – Nov 14	1 in 42
4	San Diego Chargers	4	Sep 26 – Oct 17	1 in 27
5	Detroit Lions	3	Dec 5 – Dec 19	1 in 27

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.07%	32.56%	13.41%	4.95%
Cincinnati Bengals	39.04%	36.37%	17.33%	7.26%
Houston Oilers	6.53%	16.67%	35.72%	41.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.36%	14.39%	33.54%	46.71%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	58.66%	31.53%	8.54%	1.14%	0.14%
Miami Dolphins	34.69%	45.82%	15.99%	2.99%	0.51%
New York Jets	6.13%	18.66%	50.81%	18.06%	6.33%
New England Patriots	0.37%	2.61%	15.10%	44.26%	37.66%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	1.38%	9.55%	33.56%	55.36%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	44.27%	31.02%	18.67%	6.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	34.84%	33.20%	23.34%	8.62%
San Diego Chargers	17.64%	26.96%	36.18%	19.23%
Denver Broncos	3.26%	8.82%	21.81%	66.11%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	64.42%	31.33%	3.73%	0.51%
Detroit Lions	33.46%	55.04%	9.56%	1.94%
Chicago Bears	1.26%	7.75%	47.73%	43.26%
Green Bay Packers	0.86%	5.89%	38.97%	54.29%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	67.02%	20.76%	8.53%	3.19%	0.49%
Washington Redskins	14.70%	30.99%	28.07%	20.60%	5.64%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.46%	25.56%	29.20%	26.16%	8.62%
New York Giants	7.48%	20.45%	27.89%	31.87%	12.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.34%	2.24%	6.31%	18.18%	72.93%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	50.67%	37.69%	10.44%	1.19%
San Francisco 49ers	43.31%	42.18%	13.03%	1.49%
Atlanta Falcons	5.65%	17.66%	58.81%	17.87%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	2.46%	17.72%	79.45%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Baltimore Colts	29.88%	20.32%	14.80%	11.44%	8.82%	6.09%	3.84%	2.41%	1.25%	0.63%	0.34%	0.13%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	19.22%	17.02%	14.30%	12.70%	10.62%	8.60%	6.95%	4.64%	2.87%	1.79%	0.91%	0.34%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins	15.58%	15.04%	14.82%	14.13%	12.57%	9.73%	6.73%	4.82%	3.16%	1.74%	0.99%	0.47%	0.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.32%	14.38%	13.46%	12.93%	12.10%	9.97%	8.48%	6.31%	4.05%	2.82%	1.43%	0.61%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.02%	11.06%	13.05%	12.75%	12.08%	12.10%	9.80%	7.48%	5.78%	3.79%	2.33%	1.41%	0.35%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.52%	8.60%	11.03%	11.15%	11.71%	12.50%	11.04%	9.19%	7.68%	5.17%	3.51%	2.33%	0.57%
San Diego Chargers	5.45%	7.73%	8.89%	10.51%	11.48%	11.89%	12.39%	10.35%	8.10%	6.29%	3.93%	2.27%	0.70%
New York Jets	1.68%	2.87%	4.09%	5.85%	7.65%	9.77%	12.48%	15.10%	13.26%	10.23%	7.85%	5.42%	3.76%
Denver Broncos	0.70%	1.32%	2.15%	3.12%	4.51%	6.05%	8.53%	10.68%	13.24%	16.34%	15.36%	12.54%	5.46%
Houston Oilers	0.32%	0.85%	1.69%	2.67%	3.82%	5.70%	7.88%	10.62%	13.92%	14.42%	14.20%	15.20%	8.71%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.24%	0.64%	1.32%	1.99%	3.20%	4.99%	6.88%	9.44%	12.81%	14.96%	15.96%	18.13%	9.45%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.12%	0.28%	0.55%	0.94%	1.70%	3.22%	5.53%	8.24%	12.64%	18.20%	20.55%	27.98%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.04%	0.12%	0.22%	0.49%	0.91%	1.77%	3.42%	5.66%	9.20%	15.00%	20.60%	42.56%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	38.48%	21.98%	14.99%	10.55%	6.49%	3.61%	1.84%	1.10%	0.55%	0.28%	0.10%	0.02%	<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	21.26%	23.58%	17.66%	12.06%	9.03%	6.49%	4.27%	2.62%	1.58%	0.83%	0.40%	0.17%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	17.81%	16.10%	16.69%	16.70%	12.26%	8.47%	5.12%	3.23%	1.88%	1.03%	0.52%	0.16%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	9.06%	13.86%	15.81%	14.93%	13.60%	12.13%	7.98%	5.28%	3.70%	2.05%	1.00%	0.49%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers	7.53%	11.43%	14.18%	14.78%	14.20%	13.45%	8.97%	6.24%	4.46%	2.60%	1.32%	0.64%	0.21%
Washington Redskins	2.35%	5.08%	7.31%	9.55%	12.42%	13.42%	13.29%	11.34%	9.39%	7.35%	4.65%	2.59%	1.26%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.62%	3.49%	5.36%	7.76%	10.50%	11.94%	13.45%	12.35%	11.04%	9.60%	6.62%	4.16%	2.10%
New York Giants	1.02%	2.28%	3.74%	5.78%	8.48%	10.30%	12.87%	12.79%	12.32%	11.97%	8.88%	6.04%	3.54%
Atlanta Falcons	0.32%	0.94%	1.87%	3.15%	4.99%	7.36%	10.20%	13.46%	15.42%	14.97%	12.59%	9.19%	5.53%
Chicago Bears	0.35%	0.73%	1.31%	2.45%	3.82%	5.90%	9.95%	13.35%	14.87%	15.63%	15.88%	10.25%	5.51%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	0.43%	0.85%	1.75%	3.01%	4.70%	8.04%	11.48%	13.67%	15.39%	18.62%	13.79%	8.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.07%	0.14%	0.36%	0.80%	1.37%	2.46%	3.73%	5.91%	9.72%	14.85%	25.96%	34.62%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.19%	0.40%	0.86%	1.55%	3.04%	5.21%	8.58%	14.58%	26.55%	38.93%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Minnesota Vikings	28.45%	15.99%	12.58%	9.08%	7.84%	5.73%	4.95%	3.80%	2.98%	2.30%	1.83%	1.25%	0.93%	0.70%	0.52%	0.37%	0.25%	0.18%	0.13%	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Dallas Cowboys	14.77%	13.08%	12.52%	10.04%	8.82%	7.21%	6.24%	5.12%	4.57%	3.57%	3.20%	2.56%	2.12%	1.59%	1.29%	0.97%	0.72%	0.54%	0.38%	0.28%	0.18%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.03%	<0.01%
Baltimore Colts	11.09%	12.78%	10.23%	10.26%	8.25%	8.18%	6.52%	6.10%	5.15%	4.70%	3.68%	3.29%	2.39%	2.09%	1.50%	1.14%	0.80%	0.63%	0.41%	0.30%	0.22%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%
Detroit Lions	11.97%	9.74%	9.95%	8.75%	8.93%	7.55%	8.04%	6.50%	5.78%	4.66%	4.09%	3.29%	2.56%	2.11%	1.67%	1.24%	1.03%	0.72%	0.47%	0.36%	0.27%	0.15%	0.09%	0.05%	0.02%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	6.11%	8.63%	7.77%	8.70%	7.51%	7.88%	6.78%	6.92%	5.77%	5.83%	4.76%	4.56%	3.91%	3.56%	2.65%	2.28%	1.74%	1.44%	1.04%	0.86%	0.51%	0.38%	0.21%	0.12%	0.06%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	5.87%	6.56%	7.85%	7.33%	8.20%	7.23%	7.64%	6.59%	6.80%	5.86%	5.85%	4.80%	4.13%	3.57%	2.80%	2.33%	1.91%	1.41%	1.03%	0.80%	0.53%	0.41%	0.25%	0.13%	0.06%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	4.76%	7.24%	6.77%	7.84%	7.12%	7.93%	7.07%	7.45%	6.37%	6.78%	5.33%	5.22%	3.97%	3.71%	2.87%	2.46%	1.88%	1.58%	1.11%	0.86%	0.63%	0.42%	0.28%	0.19%	0.10%	0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	4.63%	5.27%	6.75%	6.51%	7.53%	6.86%	7.57%	6.90%	6.93%	6.21%	6.29%	5.47%	4.57%	4.02%	3.28%	2.76%	2.29%	1.79%	1.44%	1.02%	0.75%	0.47%	0.35%	0.19%	0.11%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.07%	6.15%	6.22%	7.05%	6.59%	7.09%	6.59%	6.92%	6.44%	6.54%	5.52%	5.23%	4.66%	4.42%	3.70%	3.16%	2.46%	2.08%	1.64%	1.24%	0.91%	0.60%	0.39%	0.21%	0.08%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.04%	3.74%	4.16%	5.41%	5.40%	6.68%	6.14%	6.87%	6.25%	6.69%	5.89%	6.53%	5.38%	5.38%	4.23%	4.07%	3.39%	2.99%	2.34%	1.97%	1.48%	1.19%	0.81%	0.55%	0.27%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.35%	2.43%	3.11%	4.16%	4.39%	5.60%	5.19%	6.22%	5.75%	6.38%	5.95%	6.59%	5.74%	6.02%	4.99%	5.04%	4.26%	3.85%	3.16%	2.79%	2.19%	1.76%	1.35%	1.01%	0.50%	0.21%
San Diego Chargers	1.39%	2.42%	3.00%	3.71%	4.14%	4.67%	4.78%	5.61%	5.77%	6.13%	5.94%	6.31%	6.16%	6.23%	5.62%	5.41%	4.51%	4.28%	3.58%	3.07%	2.35%	1.89%	1.35%	0.95%	0.50%	0.24%
Washington Redskins	1.28%	2.01%	2.92%	3.14%	4.25%	4.32%	5.20%	5.24%	6.16%	5.97%	6.72%	6.36%	6.49%	5.95%	5.93%	5.12%	4.93%	4.06%	3.71%	2.99%	2.33%	1.84%	1.36%	0.87%	0.61%	0.27%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.83%	1.36%	1.98%	2.32%	3.06%	3.23%	4.20%	4.34%	5.27%	5.37%	6.17%	6.09%	6.52%	6.12%	6.38%	5.68%	5.71%	4.98%	4.86%	4.00%	3.42%	2.77%	2.14%	1.57%	1.09%	0.55%
New York Giants	0.53%	0.77%	1.32%	1.49%	2.15%	2.36%	3.12%	3.38%	4.30%	4.45%	5.39%	5.41%	6.24%	6.12%	6.66%	6.14%	6.40%	5.84%	5.96%	5.09%	4.57%	3.78%	3.27%	2.38%	1.85%	1.05%
New York Jets	0.30%	0.72%	0.92%	1.41%	1.65%	2.15%	2.55%	2.98%	3.52%	4.05%	4.56%	5.28%	5.76%	6.62%	6.56%	7.56%	6.62%	7.07%	5.90%	5.70%	4.54%	4.15%	3.28%	2.70%	2.09%	1.35%
Atlanta Falcons	0.15%	0.28%	0.52%	0.63%	1.03%	1.17%	1.66%	1.87%	2.67%	2.78%	3.76%	3.94%	5.26%	5.30%	6.34%	6.60%	7.31%	7.30%	7.21%	7.17%	6.59%	5.89%	5.03%	4.26%	3.23%	2.07%
Chicago Bears	0.14%	0.24%	0.38%	0.48%	0.75%	0.86%	1.34%	1.48%	2.11%	2.33%	3.23%	3.60%	4.95%	5.18%	6.30%	6.64%	7.31%	7.37%	7.60%	7.41%	7.60%	6.73%	5.73%	4.68%	3.28%	2.27%
Denver Broncos	0.08%	0.24%	0.42%	0.57%	0.77%	1.05%	1.25%	1.65%	1.98%	2.45%	2.81%	3.22%	4.09%	4.41%	5.23%	5.66%	6.40%	7.03%	7.41%	8.01%	7.41%	7.75%	6.67%	6.23%	4.28%	2.91%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.12%	0.22%	0.33%	0.48%	0.59%	0.99%	1.10%	1.64%	1.90%	2.59%	2.84%	3.91%	4.30%	5.64%	5.89%	6.84%	6.68%	7.75%	7.57%	8.68%	8.06%	7.35%	6.25%	4.78%	3.42%
Houston Oilers	0.04%	0.11%	0.21%	0.39%	0.54%	0.76%	1.00%	1.25%	1.53%	2.05%	2.37%	3.02%	3.42%	4.14%	4.68%	5.77%	6.14%	7.18%	7.31%	7.89%	7.37%	7.70%	7.74%	7.27%	5.61%	4.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.03%	0.09%	0.13%	0.27%	0.41%	0.59%	0.67%	1.01%	1.21%	1.62%	2.05%	2.54%	2.98%	3.53%	4.35%	5.02%	5.66%	6.59%	7.14%	7.88%	8.17%	8.69%	8.82%	8.84%	6.72%	4.98%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.12%	0.19%	0.25%	0.36%	0.47%	0.62%	0.86%	1.25%	1.68%	2.18%	2.92%	3.50%	4.58%	5.61%	6.97%	8.29%	9.94%	10.80%	11.65%	13.81%	13.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.06%	0.11%	0.17%	0.22%	0.36%	0.46%	0.68%	0.80%	1.23%	1.39%	1.89%	2.24%	3.12%	3.64%	4.80%	5.64%	7.45%	8.54%	11.25%	13.28%	15.67%	16.92%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.08%	0.12%	0.17%	0.24%	0.41%	0.49%	0.75%	0.93%	1.38%	1.75%	2.51%	3.06%	4.09%	4.94%	6.80%	8.10%	11.03%	13.91%	17.13%	21.98%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.15%	0.21%	0.33%	0.47%	0.64%	0.93%	1.33%	1.77%	2.33%	3.13%	3.92%	5.12%	6.72%	8.50%	10.27%	12.62%	18.11%	23.16%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	29.88%	19.88%	8.89%	15.25%	26.09%
Oakland Raiders	19.22%	16.77%	8.27%	15.59%	40.15%
Miami Dolphins	15.58%	12.78%	6.34%	20.59%	44.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.32%	14.13%	7.39%	15.68%	49.48%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	8.02%	12.91%	28.14%	4.60%	46.33%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.52%	9.98%	23.54%	4.73%	56.23%
San Diego Chargers	5.45%	7.50%	4.69%	11.52%	70.84%
New York Jets	1.68%	2.60%	1.85%	6.31%	87.56%
Denver Broncos	0.70%	1.34%	1.21%	3.04%	93.70%
Houston Oilers	0.32%	1.09%	5.12%	1.18%	92.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.24%	0.82%	4.30%	0.86%	93.78%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.14%	0.18%	0.45%	99.18%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.18%	99.66%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	38.48%	18.16%	7.78%	20.16%	15.42%
Dallas Cowboys	21.26%	27.31%	18.45%	7.30%	25.68%
Detroit Lions	17.81%	10.61%	5.04%	31.03%	35.51%
Los Angeles Rams	9.06%	15.98%	25.64%	7.59%	41.74%
San Francisco 49ers	7.53%	12.96%	22.81%	8.49%	48.20%
Washington Redskins	2.35%	5.96%	6.39%	7.92%	77.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.62%	4.18%	4.66%	6.32%	83.22%
New York Giants	1.02%	2.72%	3.74%	4.48%	88.04%
Chicago Bears	0.35%	0.49%	0.43%	2.74%	95.99%
Atlanta Falcons	0.32%	1.17%	4.16%	1.79%	92.56%
Green Bay Packers	0.19%	0.32%	0.35%	1.84%	97.30%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.09%	0.23%	0.24%	99.42%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.05%	0.32%	0.09%	99.54%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+14.29%

Fortress

54.95%4.40%40.66%

Elo Value

Home Edge

21 Elo

0.047 points per Elo point

049.9860

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.53 points

Lean Home

-8+2.33+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.1

Wide Open

124811

Champion Preseason Odds

12%

Dallas Cowboys, 3rd of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

11.1%

Tough Road

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.38 · As Expected: 1.38 to 1.89 · Elevated: 1.89 to 2.58 · High Variance: 2.58 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.44 · Close: 3.44 to 4.65 · Off Target: 4.65 to 6.07 · Well Off Target: 6.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.07 · As Expected: 2.07 to 3.45 · More Than Expected: 3.45 to 5.51 · Far More Than Expected: 5.51 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.65 wins

As Expected

01.724

Average Finish Error

Expected

4.23

04.0510

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

94.81%

Philadelphia Eagles

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

6.75%

Cincinnati Bengals

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 26

Minimal Outliers

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 8

As Expected

02.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.07

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

92%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%18%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Routine

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.63

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

33%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.22 · Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.80

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.92

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.054

Well Within Noise

00.1110.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	84.58%	55.27%	35.98%	23.75%
Baltimore Colts	73.91%	47.67%	32.02%	15.80%
Dallas Cowboys	74.32%	35.08%	19.80%	11.78%
Detroit Lions	64.49%	33.70%	15.64%	8.80%
Los Angeles Rams	58.26%	31.16%	12.82%	6.86%
Kansas City Chiefs	50.52%	26.73%	14.91%	6.43%
Miami Dolphins	55.28%	30.01%	15.16%	6.13%
Oakland Raiders	59.85%	29.53%	15.62%	6.12%
San Francisco 49ers	51.80%	26.31%	10.29%	5.31%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.67%	25.46%	9.23%	3.03%
San Diego Chargers	29.16%	11.81%	4.71%	1.50%
Cincinnati Bengals	43.77%	17.55%	5.26%	1.49%
Washington Redskins	22.63%	7.42%	2.74%	1.29%
New York Jets	12.44%	4.77%	1.62%	0.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	16.78%	3.93%	1.07%	0.37%
Atlanta Falcons	7.44%	2.54%	0.59%	0.22%
New York Giants	11.96%	2.59%	0.62%	0.21%
Denver Broncos	6.30%	1.98%	0.57%	0.15%
Houston Oilers	7.72%	2.34%	0.49%	0.10%
Chicago Bears	4.01%	1.08%	0.27%	0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.22%	1.91%	0.40%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	2.70%	0.69%	0.15%	0.05%
New England Patriots	0.82%	0.20%	0.04%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.58%	0.12%	0.03%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.46%	0.10%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.34%	0.05%	<0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			70.9%8.77%	63.2%10.96%	79.4%1.71%	77.4%1.48%	58.2%18.35%				61.9%22.24%	79.9%1.11%	72.0%9.28%
Buffalo Bills			13.3%0.09%	15.7%0.09%	25.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%	9.3%0.04%				12.1%0.07%	33.3%0.01%	25.0%0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.1%8.77%	86.7%0.09%			61.3%1.38%		35.6%7.88%	40.3%9.38%	68.8%0.23%	57.8%2.52%	39.5%8.34%		49.9%5.18%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	36.8%10.96%	84.3%0.09%			68.2%1.60%		43.0%9.16%	47.5%11.90%	78.3%0.22%	63.5%3.64%	46.6%9.57%		56.8%6.53%
Denver Broncos	20.6%1.71%	75.0%<0.01%	38.7%1.38%	31.8%1.60%		53.6%0.29%		27.5%0.92%	40.0%0.01%	36.1%0.18%		49.3%0.21%
Houston Oilers	22.6%1.48%	69.2%0.01%			46.4%0.29%		24.0%1.34%	30.7%1.63%	81.0%0.02%	46.6%0.47%	28.6%1.52%		38.6%0.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.8%18.35%	90.7%0.04%	64.4%7.88%	57.0%9.16%		76.0%1.34%		51.9%10.76%	85.3%0.10%	69.6%1.67%		72.5%1.21%
Miami Dolphins			59.7%9.38%	52.5%11.90%	72.5%0.92%	69.3%1.63%	48.1%10.76%				50.3%14.08%	68.0%1.21%	60.9%5.41%
New England Patriots			31.2%0.23%	21.7%0.22%	60.0%0.01%	19.0%0.02%	14.7%0.10%				19.2%0.15%	33.3%0.02%	32.3%0.06%
New York Jets			42.2%2.52%	36.5%3.64%	63.9%0.18%	53.4%0.47%	30.4%1.67%				34.0%2.62%	54.1%0.39%	41.9%0.95%
Oakland Raiders	38.1%22.24%	87.9%0.07%	60.5%8.34%	53.4%9.57%		71.4%1.52%		49.7%14.08%	80.8%0.15%	66.0%2.62%		71.6%1.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.1%1.11%	66.7%0.01%			50.7%0.21%		27.5%1.21%	32.0%1.21%	66.7%0.02%	45.9%0.39%	28.4%1.27%		37.4%0.79%
San Diego Chargers	28.0%9.28%	75.0%0.02%	50.1%5.18%	43.2%6.53%		61.4%0.94%		39.1%5.41%	67.7%0.06%	58.1%0.95%		62.6%0.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		60.6%0.23%	30.1%1.07%	33.3%2.30%	59.8%0.12%		21.6%2.41%		63.8%0.28%	46.2%0.01%		61.4%0.41%	46.9%0.60%
Chicago Bears	39.4%0.23%		25.2%0.65%			23.4%1.48%		45.5%0.01%	49.1%0.11%	33.3%<0.01%	25.8%1.27%	39.2%0.13%	30.8%0.13%
Dallas Cowboys	69.9%1.07%	74.8%0.65%		51.5%19.01%	75.6%0.46%	51.6%9.79%	40.0%34.57%	84.4%0.04%			54.8%8.73%
Detroit Lions	66.7%2.30%		48.5%19.01%			46.7%18.08%		77.1%0.17%	77.5%2.32%	73.9%0.09%	49.4%15.28%	75.3%3.04%	63.9%4.20%
Green Bay Packers	40.2%0.12%		24.4%0.46%			22.3%0.96%		83.3%<0.01%	51.0%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	23.4%0.92%	43.1%0.05%	38.5%0.12%
Los Angeles Rams		76.6%1.48%	48.4%9.79%	53.3%18.08%	77.7%0.96%		39.0%15.56%		76.7%2.96%	81.8%0.20%		75.0%4.16%	64.9%5.08%
Minnesota Vikings	78.4%2.41%		60.0%34.57%			61.0%15.56%		87.6%0.14%	83.4%3.68%	84.4%0.15%	63.4%14.81%	82.6%5.56%	75.8%7.71%
New Orleans Saints		54.5%0.01%	15.6%0.04%	22.9%0.17%	16.7%<0.01%		12.4%0.14%		36.8%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%		26.9%0.03%	31.8%0.04%
New York Giants	36.2%0.28%	50.9%0.11%		22.5%2.32%	49.0%0.05%	23.3%2.96%	16.6%3.68%	63.2%0.02%			22.6%2.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	53.8%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%		26.1%0.09%	0.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.20%	15.6%0.15%	25.0%<0.01%			26.4%0.11%
San Francisco 49ers		74.2%1.27%	45.2%8.73%	50.6%15.28%	76.6%0.92%		36.6%14.81%		77.4%2.54%	73.6%0.11%		73.9%3.39%	63.3%4.75%
St. Louis Cardinals	38.6%0.41%	60.8%0.13%		24.7%3.04%	56.9%0.05%	25.0%4.16%	17.4%5.56%	73.1%0.03%			26.1%3.39%
Washington Redskins	53.1%0.60%	69.2%0.13%		36.1%4.20%	61.5%0.12%	35.1%5.08%	24.2%7.71%	68.2%0.04%			36.7%4.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		100.0%0.01%	76.3%6.42%	72.0%8.76%	81.0%0.61%	84.2%0.86%	59.5%6.65%	61.1%11.98%	86.5%0.05%	76.2%1.51%	61.1%6.98%	84.5%0.72%	71.7%3.11%
Buffalo Bills	0.0%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			9.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	23.7%6.42%	0.0%<0.01%		42.4%0.98%	46.6%0.13%	69.6%0.05%	28.9%2.87%	31.6%2.60%	80.0%0.01%	50.8%0.29%	31.8%3.27%	67.6%0.03%	39.7%0.89%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.0%8.76%	100.0%<0.01%	57.6%0.98%		59.5%0.21%	71.0%0.09%	35.1%4.08%	35.9%4.20%	75.0%0.02%	54.0%0.52%	38.9%4.93%	68.4%0.06%	51.3%1.60%
Denver Broncos	19.0%0.61%		53.4%0.13%	40.5%0.21%		50.0%0.02%	19.9%0.25%	31.0%0.26%	33.3%<0.01%	37.3%0.05%	28.0%0.34%	41.2%0.02%	38.4%0.09%
Houston Oilers	15.8%0.86%		30.4%0.05%	29.0%0.09%	50.0%0.02%		20.7%0.36%	19.9%0.38%	0.0%<0.01%	30.9%0.06%	22.4%0.41%	50.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	40.5%6.65%	90.9%0.01%	71.1%2.87%	64.9%4.08%	80.1%0.25%	79.3%0.36%		52.8%3.85%	82.1%0.04%	67.9%0.60%	53.6%5.98%	83.8%0.27%	63.5%1.77%
Miami Dolphins	38.9%11.98%	100.0%<0.01%	68.4%2.60%	64.1%4.20%	69.0%0.26%	80.1%0.38%	47.2%3.85%		87.9%0.03%	66.6%0.68%	50.2%4.12%	75.8%0.29%	59.0%1.62%
New England Patriots	13.5%0.05%		20.0%0.01%	25.0%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	17.9%0.04%	12.1%0.03%		50.0%<0.01%	12.9%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	30.8%0.01%
New York Jets	23.8%1.51%	100.0%<0.01%	49.2%0.29%	46.0%0.52%	62.7%0.05%	69.1%0.06%	32.1%0.60%	33.4%0.68%	50.0%<0.01%		33.4%0.79%	64.5%0.03%	43.2%0.23%
Oakland Raiders	38.9%6.98%	100.0%0.01%	68.2%3.27%	61.1%4.93%	72.0%0.34%	77.6%0.41%	46.4%5.98%	49.8%4.12%	87.1%0.03%	66.6%0.79%		75.4%0.38%	62.2%2.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.5%0.72%		32.4%0.03%	31.6%0.06%	58.8%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	16.2%0.27%	24.2%0.29%	0.0%<0.01%	35.5%0.03%	24.6%0.38%		24.8%0.10%
San Diego Chargers	28.3%3.11%	100.0%<0.01%	60.3%0.89%	48.7%1.60%	61.6%0.09%	63.6%0.11%	36.5%1.77%	41.0%1.62%	69.2%0.01%	56.8%0.23%	37.8%2.27%	75.2%0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		62.5%<0.01%	23.2%0.71%	21.7%0.38%	60.0%<0.01%	22.3%0.17%	18.6%0.96%		47.8%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	36.0%0.14%	52.8%0.04%	36.9%0.10%
Chicago Bears	37.5%<0.01%		25.3%0.25%	24.3%0.14%	100.0%<0.01%	32.4%0.11%	20.1%0.39%		25.0%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	29.9%0.09%	31.0%0.03%	33.3%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	76.8%0.71%	74.7%0.25%		56.4%5.97%	80.7%0.17%	58.8%8.11%	43.4%9.57%	100.0%0.03%	79.4%0.54%	73.3%0.01%	61.5%7.13%	74.0%0.90%	67.0%1.69%
Detroit Lions	78.3%0.38%	75.7%0.14%	43.6%5.97%		73.5%0.10%	57.1%4.88%	37.7%16.11%	94.7%0.02%	72.5%0.40%	81.8%0.02%	57.7%4.10%	70.7%0.52%	59.8%1.06%
Green Bay Packers	40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	19.3%0.17%	26.5%0.10%		20.3%0.06%	14.3%0.24%		72.7%0.01%		39.1%0.07%	22.2%<0.01%	36.0%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	77.7%0.17%	67.6%0.11%	41.2%8.11%	42.9%4.88%	79.7%0.06%		33.6%13.16%	100.0%<0.01%	78.1%0.36%	61.5%0.01%	52.8%2.60%	67.5%0.62%	57.5%1.05%
Minnesota Vikings	81.4%0.96%	79.9%0.39%	56.6%9.57%	62.3%16.11%	85.7%0.24%	66.4%13.16%		100.0%0.04%	82.2%0.79%	78.9%0.06%	68.2%10.41%	80.9%1.24%	71.8%2.30%
New Orleans Saints			0.0%0.03%	5.3%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%
New York Giants	52.2%0.02%	75.0%0.01%	20.6%0.54%	27.5%0.40%	27.3%0.01%	21.9%0.36%	17.8%0.79%	100.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	31.5%0.34%	59.5%0.04%	37.5%0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.01%	18.2%0.02%		38.5%0.01%	21.1%0.06%		0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	64.0%0.14%	70.1%0.09%	38.5%7.13%	42.3%4.10%	60.9%0.07%	47.2%2.60%	31.8%10.41%	100.0%<0.01%	68.5%0.34%	66.7%<0.01%		66.4%0.44%	55.0%0.98%
St. Louis Cardinals	47.2%0.04%	69.0%0.03%	26.0%0.90%	29.3%0.52%	77.8%<0.01%	32.5%0.62%	19.1%1.24%	50.0%<0.01%	40.5%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	33.6%0.44%		38.1%0.10%
Washington Redskins	63.1%0.10%	66.7%0.05%	33.0%1.69%	40.2%1.06%	64.0%0.03%	42.5%1.05%	28.2%2.30%	75.0%<0.01%	62.5%0.06%	50.0%<0.01%	45.0%0.98%	61.9%0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	73.3%0.21%	76.9%0.09%	48.9%6.38%	51.3%5.05%	73.6%0.05%	54.9%4.08%	41.6%11.39%	0.0%<0.01%	76.0%0.20%	72.7%0.01%	56.5%3.34%	73.6%0.34%	63.8%0.86%
Buffalo Bills				0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	42.1%0.02%	47.1%0.02%	27.6%1.08%	29.5%0.86%	28.6%<0.01%	32.8%0.66%	21.6%1.82%		57.6%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	35.6%0.55%	52.3%0.07%	41.2%0.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	51.0%0.05%	61.5%0.03%	33.1%1.81%	35.6%1.44%	47.4%0.02%	38.2%1.21%	25.8%3.28%		60.4%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	36.7%0.97%	62.3%0.11%	41.3%0.26%
Denver Broncos	62.5%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	31.6%0.11%	31.2%0.08%		20.8%0.07%	18.3%0.20%		40.0%<0.01%		32.4%0.07%	33.3%<0.01%	29.4%0.02%
Houston Oilers		0.0%<0.01%	22.3%0.10%	24.3%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	13.1%0.06%	21.6%0.19%		66.7%<0.01%		25.0%0.04%	25.0%<0.01%	11.1%0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	63.3%0.08%	71.7%0.05%	42.1%2.95%	45.5%2.28%	69.6%0.02%	47.9%1.96%	36.4%5.47%	100.0%<0.01%	64.1%0.09%	66.7%<0.01%	51.8%1.47%	66.0%0.15%	53.5%0.38%
Miami Dolphins	62.6%0.10%	71.0%0.03%	38.8%2.93%	44.0%2.36%	65.0%0.02%	44.7%1.90%	33.0%5.55%	100.0%<0.01%	64.8%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	48.3%1.56%	65.5%0.17%	55.2%0.43%
New England Patriots		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%				100.0%<0.01%
New York Jets	75.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	24.4%0.31%	26.9%0.28%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.18%	23.1%0.63%		71.4%<0.01%		36.5%0.15%	55.6%<0.01%	23.3%0.04%
Oakland Raiders	53.8%0.09%	70.3%0.04%	38.1%3.08%	42.1%2.38%	80.0%0.02%	45.3%2.08%	31.7%5.61%		63.7%0.09%	83.3%<0.01%	46.4%1.61%	60.6%0.17%	49.2%0.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	14.5%0.08%	14.3%0.06%		27.5%0.04%	10.9%0.15%		0.0%<0.01%		20.5%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	36.4%0.01%
San Diego Chargers	50.0%0.03%	50.0%0.01%	30.8%0.95%	36.0%0.76%	71.4%<0.01%	37.8%0.56%	24.6%1.67%		60.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	37.0%0.50%	61.5%0.05%	40.3%0.13%
Atlanta Falcons														26.7%0.21%		57.9%0.02%	49.0%0.05%	37.5%<0.01%		36.7%0.08%	37.4%0.10%		25.0%<0.01%	46.2%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.03%
Chicago Bears														23.1%0.09%		52.9%0.02%	38.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	28.3%0.05%	29.0%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	29.7%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														51.1%6.38%		72.4%1.08%	66.9%1.81%	68.4%0.11%	77.7%0.10%	57.9%2.95%	61.2%2.93%	50.0%<0.01%	75.6%0.31%	61.9%3.08%	85.5%0.08%	69.2%0.95%
Detroit Lions														48.7%5.05%	100.0%<0.01%	70.5%0.86%	64.4%1.44%	68.8%0.08%	75.7%0.07%	54.5%2.28%	56.0%2.36%	66.7%<0.01%	73.1%0.28%	57.9%2.38%	85.7%0.06%	64.0%0.76%
Green Bay Packers														26.4%0.05%		71.4%<0.01%	52.6%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%	30.4%0.02%	35.0%0.02%		66.7%<0.01%	20.0%0.02%		28.6%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams														45.1%4.08%	0.0%<0.01%	67.2%0.66%	61.8%1.21%	79.2%0.07%	86.9%0.06%	52.1%1.96%	55.3%1.90%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.18%	54.7%2.08%	72.5%0.04%	62.2%0.56%
Minnesota Vikings														58.4%11.39%		78.4%1.82%	74.2%3.28%	81.7%0.20%	78.4%0.19%	63.6%5.47%	67.0%5.55%	100.0%0.01%	76.9%0.63%	68.3%5.61%	89.1%0.15%	75.4%1.67%
New Orleans Saints														100.0%<0.01%						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants														24.0%0.20%		42.4%0.03%	39.6%0.05%	60.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	35.9%0.09%	35.2%0.10%		28.6%<0.01%	36.3%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	39.4%0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles														27.3%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			16.7%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers														43.5%3.34%		64.4%0.55%	63.3%0.97%	67.6%0.07%	75.0%0.04%	48.2%1.47%	51.7%1.56%	0.0%<0.01%	63.5%0.15%	53.6%1.61%	79.5%0.04%	63.0%0.50%
St. Louis Cardinals														26.4%0.34%		47.7%0.07%	37.7%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	34.0%0.15%	34.5%0.17%		44.4%<0.01%	39.4%0.17%	33.3%<0.01%	38.5%0.05%
Washington Redskins														36.2%0.86%		58.8%0.15%	58.7%0.26%	70.6%0.02%	88.9%0.02%	46.5%0.38%	44.8%0.43%		76.7%0.04%	50.8%0.45%	63.6%0.01%	59.7%0.13%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	64.55%	47.56%	30.17%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	62.25%	31.99%	15.75%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	60.32%	33.97%	14.59%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	35.45%	20.87%	12.01%	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	63.85%	22.31%	10.91%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	39.68%	19.48%	7.90%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.75%	14.55%	4.69%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	36.15%	9.26%	3.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Colts		62.2%100.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.8%100.00%
Kansas City Chiefs				60.3%100.00%
Miami Dolphins			39.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		35.4%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	64.5%100.00%
San Francisco 49ers				63.8%100.00%
Washington Redskins			36.2%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Colts			50.6%37.49%	52.5%24.75%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			32.3%22.83%	48.2%14.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	49.4%37.49%	67.7%22.83%
Miami Dolphins	47.5%24.75%	51.8%14.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			52.3%22.61%	70.4%12.84%
Minnesota Vikings			72.0%41.24%	76.6%23.31%
San Francisco 49ers	47.7%22.61%	28.0%41.24%
Washington Redskins	29.6%12.84%	23.4%23.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Colts	48.7%6.79%	42.7%15.14%	57.7%7.04%	63.5%3.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.1%3.07%	26.2%6.90%	39.7%3.25%	45.6%1.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	42.3%7.07%	36.6%16.22%	51.4%7.58%	57.2%3.10%
Miami Dolphins	40.0%3.94%	34.3%9.29%	48.4%4.44%	54.3%1.81%
Dallas Cowboys					51.3%6.79%	67.9%3.07%	57.7%7.07%	60.0%3.94%
Minnesota Vikings					57.3%15.14%	73.8%6.90%	63.4%16.22%	65.7%9.29%
San Francisco 49ers					42.3%7.04%	60.3%3.25%	48.6%7.58%	51.6%4.44%
Washington Redskins					36.5%3.02%	54.4%1.33%	42.8%3.10%	45.7%1.81%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 30.17% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

62.46%

Win Prob

72.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.10%

Win Prob

63.42%

Baltimore Colts 15.75% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.25%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

59.35%

Win Prob

50.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

41.02%

Win Prob

42.69%

Kansas City Chiefs 14.59% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

54.48%

Win Prob

49.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.66%

Win Prob

36.58%

Dallas Cowboys 12.01% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

56.67%

Win Prob

52.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

33.97%

Win Prob

57.69%

San Francisco 49ers 10.91% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

51.68%

Win Prob

27.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

33.77%

Win Prob

48.62%

Miami Dolphins 7.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

60.31%

Win Prob

47.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.38%

Win Prob

34.31%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 4.69% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.75%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

50.59%

Win Prob

32.25%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

38.52%

Win Prob

26.16%

Washington Redskins 3.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

58.98%

Win Prob

23.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

33.34%

Win Prob

42.77%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1971-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1463.33	1575.98	38.64%	56.32%	+6.70	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 20-20	1470.03	1595.37	25.08%	70.75%	+0.77	1-0
1971-10-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 38-41	1470.80	1645.53	20.29%	76.05%	-2.45	1-1
1971-10-10	St. Louis Cardinals	L 9-26	1468.35	1501.27	49.86%	44.97%	-14.21	1-2
1971-10-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-24	1454.14	1611.18	32.89%	62.34%	-6.52	1-3
1971-10-24	New Orleans Saints	W 28-6	1447.62	1354.94	66.87%	28.65%	+9.42	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1457.04	1513.90	32.92%	62.31%	+17.58	3-3
1971-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 9-6	1474.62	1466.61	41.47%	53.42%	+6.38	4-3
1971-11-14	New York Giants	L 17-21	1481.00	1490.94	53.14%	41.74%	-7.33	4-4
1971-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 28-21	1473.67	1462.06	56.17%	38.79%	+7.17	5-4
1971-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1480.84	1703.47	16.34%	80.52%	-4.67	5-5
1971-12-05	Oakland Raiders	W 24-13	1476.17	1583.16	39.41%	55.54%	+12.67	6-5
1971-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-24	1488.84	1579.14	28.92%	66.58%	-9.29	6-6
1971-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1479.55	1356.54	57.76%	37.26%	+5.21	7-6
1971-09-19	New York Jets	W 22-0	1602.50	1493.52	68.84%	26.83%	+8.82	1-0
1971-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-14	1611.32	1535.90	64.71%	30.66%	-4.43	1-1
1971-10-03	@ New England Patriots	W 23-3	1606.89	1344.31	74.82%	21.40%	+6.68	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 43-0	1613.57	1331.65	76.77%	19.65%	+8.98	3-1
1971-10-17	@ New York Giants	W 31-7	1622.55	1512.13	56.01%	38.94%	+13.32	4-1
1971-10-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1635.87	1696.53	32.45%	62.81%	-6.02	4-2
1971-10-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-21	1629.85	1396.21	81.46%	15.52%	+3.88	5-2
1971-11-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1633.73	1613.56	57.36%	37.64%	+6.96	6-2
1971-11-14	@ New York Jets	W 14-13	1640.69	1455.10	66.00%	29.46%	+2.06	7-2
1971-11-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1642.75	1582.95	48.82%	46.00%	-5.85	7-3
1971-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 37-14	1636.90	1599.49	45.61%	49.22%	+16.32	8-3
1971-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 24-0	1653.22	1296.90	89.64%	8.50%	+2.84	9-3
1971-12-11	Miami Dolphins	W 14-3	1656.06	1576.08	65.29%	30.12%	+6.99	10-3
1971-12-19	New England Patriots	L 17-21	1663.05	1354.67	86.90%	10.82%	-11.65	10-4
1971-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 37-49	1347.38	1602.26	22.12%	74.01%	-5.35	0-1
1971-09-26	Miami Dolphins	L 14-29	1342.03	1534.67	28.65%	66.87%	-7.77	0-2
1971-10-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-19	1334.26	1683.96	8.79%	89.29%	-2.61	0-3
1971-10-10	Baltimore Colts	L 0-43	1331.65	1613.57	19.65%	76.77%	-8.98	0-4
1971-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 17-28	1322.67	1467.49	23.10%	72.92%	-5.35	0-5
1971-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-20	1317.32	1498.60	19.71%	76.70%	-5.66	0-6
1971-10-31	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-28	1311.66	1493.15	29.94%	65.48%	-4.69	0-7
1971-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-34	1306.97	1575.19	13.17%	84.16%	-5.29	0-8
1971-11-14	@ New England Patriots	L 33-38	1301.68	1348.32	34.20%	60.96%	-5.35	0-9
1971-11-21	New York Jets	L 7-20	1296.33	1453.04	32.93%	62.30%	-8.32	0-10
1971-11-28	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1288.01	1345.72	46.30%	48.52%	+8.89	1-10
1971-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-24	1296.90	1653.22	8.50%	89.64%	-2.84	1-11
1971-12-12	Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1294.06	1363.41	44.64%	50.19%	-7.59	1-12
1971-12-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-22	1286.47	1597.13	10.70%	87.04%	-2.64	1-13
1971-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-15	1472.27	1382.51	66.51%	28.98%	+2.87	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1475.14	1693.34	16.67%	80.14%	+9.38	2-0
1971-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-17	1484.52	1594.60	26.71%	68.97%	-7.00	2-1
1971-10-10	New Orleans Saints	W 35-14	1477.52	1346.47	71.40%	24.49%	+7.85	3-1
1971-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-13	1485.37	1577.61	28.70%	66.82%	-7.25	3-2
1971-10-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-23	1478.12	1657.58	19.87%	76.52%	+11.60	4-2
1971-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-19	1489.72	1602.58	38.61%	56.36%	+7.74	5-2
1971-11-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-17	1497.46	1456.77	60.16%	34.96%	-7.14	5-3
1971-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 16-15	1490.32	1539.27	47.56%	47.26%	+3.27	6-3
1971-11-21	Detroit Lions	L 3-28	1493.59	1637.60	34.53%	60.61%	-12.08	6-4
1971-11-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-34	1481.51	1588.80	27.01%	68.64%	-10.53	6-5
1971-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-6	1470.98	1437.66	45.03%	49.80%	-5.42	6-6
1971-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-31	1465.56	1442.20	43.62%	51.23%	-13.90	6-7
1971-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1451.66	1699.69	22.78%	73.28%	-6.57	6-8
1971-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-14	1504.31	1392.79	69.14%	26.55%	+8.92	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1513.23	1379.64	59.21%	35.87%	-13.47	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1499.76	1465.39	45.17%	49.65%	-5.43	1-2
1971-10-10	Miami Dolphins	L 13-23	1494.33	1533.77	48.92%	45.90%	-10.71	1-3
1971-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1483.62	1532.61	47.55%	47.27%	-5.70	1-4
1971-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-31	1477.92	1589.86	26.51%	69.19%	-3.71	1-5
1971-10-31	@ Houston Oilers	L 6-10	1474.21	1369.30	55.24%	39.69%	-7.60	1-6
1971-11-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 6-9	1466.61	1474.62	53.42%	41.47%	-6.38	1-7
1971-11-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-10	1460.23	1445.23	42.44%	52.42%	+13.53	2-7
1971-11-21	Houston Oilers	W 28-13	1473.76	1362.92	69.06%	26.63%	+7.22	3-7
1971-11-28	San Diego Chargers	W 31-0	1480.98	1506.23	50.96%	43.88%	+16.99	4-7
1971-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-31	1497.97	1493.04	41.04%	53.85%	-5.72	4-8
1971-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-21	1492.25	1383.32	68.83%	26.83%	-13.27	4-9
1971-12-19	@ New York Jets	L 21-35	1478.98	1452.76	44.02%	50.82%	-11.45	4-10
1971-09-19	Houston Oilers	W 31-0	1526.00	1403.64	70.41%	25.39%	+9.90	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 14-13	1535.90	1611.32	30.66%	64.71%	+4.42	2-0
1971-10-04	Oakland Raiders	L 20-34	1540.32	1563.21	51.30%	43.55%	-13.25	2-1
1971-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-17	1527.07	1401.20	70.81%	25.02%	+5.54	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1532.61	1483.62	47.27%	47.55%	+5.70	4-1
1971-10-24	Denver Broncos	L 0-27	1538.31	1428.37	68.96%	26.72%	-24.41	4-2
1971-10-31	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-31	1513.90	1457.04	62.31%	32.92%	-17.58	4-3
1971-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-26	1496.32	1392.34	55.11%	39.82%	-15.64	4-4
1971-11-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-13	1480.68	1578.00	28.12%	67.44%	-4.82	4-5
1971-11-21	New England Patriots	W 27-7	1475.86	1353.68	70.39%	25.41%	+7.95	5-5
1971-11-28	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-24	1483.81	1355.70	58.46%	36.58%	+9.23	6-5
1971-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-27	1493.04	1497.97	53.85%	41.04%	+5.72	7-5
1971-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1498.76	1361.49	59.70%	35.39%	+4.95	8-5
1971-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1503.71	1557.37	33.32%	61.89%	+11.21	9-5
1971-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 49-37	1602.26	1347.38	74.01%	22.12%	+5.36	1-0
1971-09-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-7	1607.62	1383.87	70.57%	25.24%	+10.45	2-0
1971-10-03	Washington Redskins	L 16-20	1618.07	1516.37	67.97%	27.63%	-9.27	2-1
1971-10-11	New York Giants	W 20-13	1608.80	1517.47	66.70%	28.80%	+5.34	3-1
1971-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-24	1614.14	1338.62	76.14%	20.22%	-16.32	3-2
1971-10-24	New England Patriots	W 44-21	1597.82	1348.18	82.75%	14.39%	+4.76	4-2
1971-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-23	1602.58	1489.72	56.36%	38.61%	-7.74	4-3
1971-11-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-13	1594.84	1497.84	54.13%	40.77%	+4.92	5-3
1971-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-7	1599.76	1374.86	80.72%	16.16%	+4.04	6-3
1971-11-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-0	1603.80	1536.00	49.97%	44.86%	+11.24	7-3
1971-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-21	1615.04	1626.93	52.86%	42.01%	+7.74	8-3
1971-12-04	New York Jets	W 52-10	1622.78	1456.87	75.16%	21.09%	+9.53	9-3
1971-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 42-14	1632.31	1465.35	63.63%	31.67%	+11.75	10-3
1971-12-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-12	1644.06	1471.78	75.81%	20.51%	+6.23	11-3
1971-09-19	Miami Dolphins	T 10-10	1451.52	1534.82	42.67%	52.19%	+0.16	0-0
1971-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1451.68	1452.53	40.25%	54.67%	-12.87	0-1
1971-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-16	1438.81	1550.77	38.73%	56.23%	-9.75	0-2
1971-10-10	Oakland Raiders	L 16-27	1429.06	1576.46	34.10%	61.06%	-7.92	0-3
1971-10-17	San Diego Chargers	W 20-16	1421.14	1505.83	42.48%	52.39%	+7.23	1-3
1971-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-0	1428.37	1538.31	26.72%	68.96%	+24.41	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-17	1452.78	1370.36	52.06%	42.80%	-3.59	2-4
1971-11-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1449.19	1645.35	28.25%	67.30%	-3.96	2-5
1971-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1445.23	1460.23	52.42%	42.44%	-13.52	2-6
1971-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-28	1431.71	1582.82	22.49%	73.60%	-6.67	2-7
1971-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-10	1425.04	1412.87	42.05%	52.83%	+12.62	3-7
1971-12-05	Chicago Bears	W 6-3	1437.66	1470.98	49.80%	45.03%	+5.41	4-7
1971-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-45	1443.07	1508.31	31.89%	63.40%	-11.82	4-8
1971-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-21	1431.25	1566.81	24.03%	71.90%	-4.75	4-9
1971-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1644.39	1687.54	48.39%	46.43%	-5.80	0-1
1971-09-26	@ New England Patriots	W 34-7	1638.59	1351.25	77.30%	19.18%	+6.94	1-1
1971-10-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-38	1645.53	1470.80	76.05%	20.29%	+2.45	2-1
1971-10-10	Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1647.98	1470.83	76.29%	20.07%	+2.42	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-7	1650.40	1383.62	75.25%	21.01%	+7.18	4-1
1971-10-24	Chicago Bears	L 23-28	1657.58	1478.12	76.52%	19.87%	-11.60	4-2
1971-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1645.98	1456.15	66.52%	28.97%	-0.63	4-2
1971-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-20	1645.35	1449.19	67.30%	28.25%	+3.96	5-2
1971-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1649.31	1606.60	60.43%	34.70%	-11.71	5-3
1971-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-3	1637.60	1493.59	60.61%	34.53%	+12.09	6-3
1971-11-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 32-21	1649.69	1589.49	62.75%	32.51%	+7.55	7-3
1971-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1657.24	1383.81	84.54%	12.84%	-9.85	7-4
1971-12-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-29	1647.39	1689.06	34.83%	60.29%	-10.63	7-5
1971-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1636.76	1588.43	47.17%	47.65%	-6.54	7-6
1971-09-19	New York Giants	L 40-42	1456.85	1530.88	43.98%	50.86%	-4.32	0-1
1971-09-26	Denver Broncos	W 34-13	1452.53	1451.68	54.67%	40.25%	+12.86	1-1
1971-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1465.39	1499.76	49.65%	45.17%	+5.44	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1470.83	1647.98	20.07%	76.29%	-2.42	2-2
1971-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1468.41	1690.64	25.40%	70.40%	-5.90	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-30	1462.51	1617.69	22.10%	74.04%	-6.36	2-4
1971-11-01	Detroit Lions	T 14-14	1456.15	1645.98	28.97%	66.52%	+0.62	2-4
1971-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1456.77	1497.46	34.96%	60.16%	+7.15	3-4
1971-11-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-3	1463.92	1697.92	15.49%	81.49%	-1.86	3-5
1971-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-28	1462.06	1473.67	38.79%	56.17%	-7.17	3-6
1971-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 21-29	1454.89	1352.39	68.07%	27.54%	-13.12	3-7
1971-12-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 16-16	1441.77	1484.93	34.64%	60.49%	+0.43	3-7
1971-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 31-10	1442.20	1465.56	51.23%	43.62%	+13.90	4-7
1971-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-27	1456.10	1569.08	26.39%	69.31%	-8.47	4-8
1971-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-31	1403.64	1526.00	25.39%	70.41%	-9.89	0-1
1971-09-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-20	1393.75	1546.08	33.48%	61.72%	-4.69	0-2
1971-10-03	New Orleans Saints	T 13-13	1389.06	1346.04	60.47%	34.66%	-0.43	0-2
1971-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-22	1388.63	1525.63	23.88%	72.06%	-5.01	0-3
1971-10-17	Detroit Lions	L 7-31	1383.62	1650.40	21.01%	75.25%	-7.18	0-4
1971-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-23	1376.44	1389.07	38.65%	56.32%	-7.14	0-5
1971-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-6	1369.30	1474.21	39.69%	55.24%	+7.60	1-5
1971-11-07	@ New England Patriots	L 20-28	1376.90	1339.36	45.63%	49.20%	-8.96	1-6
1971-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-41	1367.94	1592.44	16.19%	80.68%	-5.02	1-7
1971-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-28	1362.92	1473.76	26.63%	69.06%	-7.22	1-8
1971-11-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-37	1355.70	1483.81	36.58%	58.46%	-9.23	1-9
1971-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-3	1346.47	1400.26	46.86%	47.96%	+16.94	2-9
1971-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1363.41	1294.06	50.19%	44.64%	+7.60	3-9
1971-12-19	San Diego Chargers	W 49-33	1371.01	1520.13	33.88%	61.29%	+16.79	4-9
1971-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-21	1553.89	1539.44	42.37%	52.50%	-7.81	0-1
1971-09-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-16	1546.08	1393.75	61.72%	33.48%	+4.69	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-3	1550.77	1438.81	56.23%	38.73%	+9.76	2-1
1971-10-10	San Diego Chargers	W 31-10	1560.53	1516.92	60.55%	34.59%	+11.09	3-1
1971-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-16	1571.62	1395.66	76.18%	20.18%	+6.60	4-1
1971-10-24	Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1578.22	1542.61	59.47%	35.61%	+6.59	5-1
1971-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	T 20-20	1584.81	1593.57	39.17%	55.78%	+0.27	5-1
1971-11-07	@ New York Jets	L 10-13	1585.08	1448.01	59.68%	35.42%	-7.08	5-2
1971-11-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 13-7	1578.00	1480.68	67.44%	28.12%	+4.82	6-2
1971-11-21	Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1582.82	1431.71	73.60%	22.49%	+6.67	7-2
1971-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-32	1589.49	1649.69	32.51%	62.75%	-7.55	7-3
1971-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-17	1581.94	1590.65	39.18%	55.77%	+11.50	8-3
1971-12-12	Oakland Raiders	W 16-14	1593.44	1570.50	57.74%	37.27%	+3.69	9-3
1971-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 22-9	1597.13	1286.47	87.04%	10.70%	+2.64	10-3
1971-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-24	1605.51	1343.65	74.74%	21.46%	-10.14	0-1
1971-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	T 20-20	1595.37	1470.03	70.75%	25.08%	-0.77	0-1
1971-10-03	Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1594.60	1484.52	68.97%	26.71%	+7.00	1-1
1971-10-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-13	1601.60	1587.19	42.36%	52.51%	+9.58	2-1
1971-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1611.18	1454.14	62.34%	32.89%	+6.51	3-1
1971-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 30-13	1617.69	1462.51	74.04%	22.10%	+6.37	4-1
1971-10-31	Miami Dolphins	L 14-20	1624.06	1564.69	62.64%	32.61%	-10.50	4-2
1971-11-08	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-24	1613.56	1633.73	37.64%	57.36%	-6.96	4-3
1971-11-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-13	1606.60	1649.31	34.70%	60.43%	+11.71	5-3
1971-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-6	1618.31	1594.79	57.82%	37.19%	+8.62	6-3
1971-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-28	1626.93	1615.04	42.01%	52.86%	-7.74	6-4
1971-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 45-28	1619.19	1365.51	83.06%	14.12%	+4.02	7-4
1971-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 24-38	1623.21	1540.61	65.62%	29.81%	-16.77	7-5
1971-12-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-14	1606.44	1396.59	68.95%	26.73%	+5.62	8-5
1971-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	T 10-10	1534.82	1451.52	52.19%	42.67%	-0.15	0-0
1971-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 29-14	1534.67	1342.03	66.87%	28.65%	+7.77	1-0
1971-10-03	New York Jets	L 10-14	1542.44	1477.58	63.35%	31.93%	-8.67	1-1
1971-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-13	1533.77	1494.33	45.90%	48.92%	+10.71	2-1
1971-10-17	New England Patriots	W 41-3	1544.48	1356.39	77.37%	19.12%	+8.20	3-1
1971-10-24	@ New York Jets	W 30-14	1552.68	1472.85	51.69%	43.16%	+12.01	4-1
1971-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1564.69	1624.06	32.61%	62.64%	+10.50	5-1
1971-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 34-0	1575.19	1306.97	84.16%	13.17%	+5.29	6-1
1971-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1580.48	1407.97	75.83%	20.49%	+2.47	7-1
1971-11-21	Baltimore Colts	W 17-14	1582.95	1642.75	46.00%	48.82%	+5.85	8-1
1971-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1588.80	1481.51	68.64%	27.01%	+10.54	9-1
1971-12-05	@ New England Patriots	L 13-34	1599.34	1336.84	74.81%	21.40%	-23.26	9-2
1971-12-11	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-14	1576.08	1656.06	30.12%	65.29%	-7.00	9-3
1971-12-19	Green Bay Packers	W 27-6	1569.08	1456.10	69.31%	26.39%	+8.46	10-3
1971-09-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1687.54	1644.39	46.43%	48.39%	+5.80	1-0
1971-09-26	Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1693.34	1475.14	80.14%	16.67%	-9.38	1-1
1971-10-03	Buffalo Bills	W 19-0	1683.96	1334.26	89.29%	8.79%	+2.61	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-0	1686.57	1363.26	80.58%	16.28%	+4.07	3-1
1971-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1690.64	1468.41	70.40%	25.40%	+5.89	4-1
1971-10-25	Baltimore Colts	W 10-3	1696.53	1635.87	62.81%	32.45%	+6.02	5-1
1971-10-31	@ New York Giants	W 17-10	1702.55	1482.16	70.18%	25.60%	+4.74	6-1
1971-11-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-13	1707.29	1599.27	68.73%	26.93%	-9.37	6-2
1971-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 3-0	1697.92	1463.92	81.49%	15.49%	+1.86	7-2
1971-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1699.78	1356.07	82.28%	14.80%	+3.69	8-2
1971-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1703.47	1480.84	80.52%	16.34%	+4.66	9-2
1971-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-30	1708.13	1489.24	70.01%	25.76%	-19.07	9-3
1971-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 29-10	1689.06	1647.39	60.29%	34.83%	+10.63	10-3
1971-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-10	1699.69	1451.66	73.28%	22.78%	+6.57	11-3
1971-09-19	Oakland Raiders	W 20-6	1333.22	1559.01	25.03%	70.81%	+18.03	1-0
1971-09-26	Detroit Lions	L 7-34	1351.25	1638.59	19.18%	77.30%	-6.94	1-1
1971-10-03	Baltimore Colts	L 3-23	1344.31	1606.89	21.40%	74.82%	-6.68	1-2
1971-10-10	New York Jets	W 20-0	1337.63	1486.24	33.95%	61.23%	+18.76	2-2
1971-10-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-41	1356.39	1544.48	19.12%	77.37%	-8.21	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-44	1348.18	1597.82	14.39%	82.75%	-4.76	2-4
1971-10-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1343.42	1595.22	14.25%	82.92%	-4.06	2-5
1971-11-07	Houston Oilers	W 28-20	1339.36	1376.90	49.20%	45.63%	+8.96	3-5
1971-11-14	Buffalo Bills	W 38-33	1348.32	1301.68	60.96%	34.20%	+5.36	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1353.68	1475.86	25.41%	70.39%	-7.96	4-6
1971-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1345.72	1288.01	48.52%	46.30%	-8.88	4-7
1971-12-05	Miami Dolphins	W 34-13	1336.84	1599.34	21.40%	74.81%	+23.26	5-7
1971-12-12	@ New York Jets	L 6-13	1360.10	1447.33	29.27%	66.20%	-5.43	5-8
1971-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-17	1354.67	1663.05	10.82%	86.90%	+11.66	6-8
1971-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-20	1343.65	1605.51	21.46%	74.74%	+10.15	1-0
1971-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-38	1353.80	1569.27	26.12%	69.61%	-7.76	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Houston Oilers	T 13-13	1346.04	1389.06	34.66%	60.47%	+0.43	1-1
1971-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1346.47	1477.52	24.49%	71.40%	-7.85	1-2
1971-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-14	1338.62	1614.14	20.22%	76.14%	+16.32	2-2
1971-10-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-28	1354.94	1447.62	28.65%	66.87%	-9.42	2-3
1971-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1345.52	1536.02	18.91%	77.60%	-4.16	2-4
1971-11-07	Oakland Raiders	T 21-21	1341.36	1593.30	22.41%	73.70%	+0.86	2-4
1971-11-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-20	1342.22	1608.64	13.28%	84.03%	+13.85	3-4
1971-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1356.07	1699.78	14.80%	82.28%	-3.68	3-5
1971-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 29-21	1352.39	1454.89	27.54%	68.07%	+13.12	4-5
1971-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 28-45	1365.51	1619.19	14.12%	83.06%	-4.02	4-6
1971-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1361.49	1498.76	35.39%	59.70%	-4.95	4-7
1971-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-24	1356.54	1479.55	37.26%	57.76%	-5.21	4-8
1971-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 42-40	1530.88	1456.85	50.86%	43.98%	+4.32	1-0
1971-09-26	Washington Redskins	L 3-30	1535.20	1494.96	60.10%	35.02%	-21.40	1-1
1971-10-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-20	1513.80	1504.94	41.59%	53.30%	+3.67	2-1
1971-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1517.47	1608.80	28.80%	66.70%	-5.34	2-2
1971-10-17	Baltimore Colts	L 7-31	1512.13	1622.55	38.94%	56.01%	-13.32	2-3
1971-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1498.81	1353.71	60.76%	34.39%	-16.65	2-4
1971-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1482.16	1702.55	25.60%	70.18%	-4.74	2-5
1971-11-07	San Diego Chargers	W 35-17	1477.42	1517.08	48.89%	45.93%	+13.52	3-5
1971-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-17	1490.94	1481.00	41.74%	53.14%	+7.33	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1498.27	1405.49	53.53%	41.36%	-7.38	4-6
1971-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-24	1490.89	1468.60	57.65%	37.36%	-16.32	4-7
1971-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1474.57	1531.38	32.92%	62.30%	-9.22	4-8
1971-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-42	1465.35	1632.31	31.67%	63.63%	-11.74	4-9
1971-12-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-41	1453.61	1406.37	61.04%	34.12%	-15.08	4-10
1971-09-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-22	1493.52	1602.50	26.83%	68.84%	-8.81	0-1
1971-09-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1484.71	1497.81	38.59%	56.38%	-7.13	0-2
1971-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 14-10	1477.58	1542.44	31.93%	63.35%	+8.66	1-2
1971-10-10	@ New England Patriots	L 0-20	1486.24	1337.63	61.23%	33.95%	-18.75	1-3
1971-10-17	Buffalo Bills	W 28-17	1467.49	1322.67	72.92%	23.10%	+5.36	2-3
1971-10-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-30	1472.85	1552.68	43.16%	51.69%	-12.02	2-4
1971-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-49	1460.83	1504.27	34.61%	60.53%	-12.82	2-5
1971-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1448.01	1585.08	35.42%	59.68%	+7.09	3-5
1971-11-14	Baltimore Colts	L 13-14	1455.10	1640.69	29.46%	66.00%	-2.06	3-6
1971-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1453.04	1296.33	62.30%	32.93%	+8.31	4-6
1971-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1461.35	1586.17	37.02%	58.01%	-4.48	4-7
1971-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-52	1456.87	1622.78	21.09%	75.16%	-9.54	4-8
1971-12-12	New England Patriots	W 13-6	1447.33	1360.10	66.20%	29.27%	+5.43	5-8
1971-12-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-21	1452.76	1478.98	50.82%	44.02%	+11.45	6-8
1971-09-19	@ New England Patriots	L 6-20	1559.01	1333.22	70.81%	25.03%	-18.02	0-1
1971-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-0	1540.99	1547.24	39.51%	55.43%	+22.22	1-1
1971-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-20	1563.21	1540.32	43.55%	51.30%	+13.25	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-16	1576.46	1429.06	61.06%	34.10%	+7.92	3-1
1971-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-10	1584.38	1359.19	80.74%	16.14%	+5.48	4-1
1971-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-27	1589.86	1477.92	69.19%	26.51%	+3.71	5-1
1971-10-31	Kansas City Chiefs	T 20-20	1593.57	1584.81	55.78%	39.17%	-0.27	5-1
1971-11-07	@ New Orleans Saints	T 21-21	1593.30	1341.36	73.70%	22.41%	-0.86	5-1
1971-11-14	Houston Oilers	W 41-21	1592.44	1367.94	80.68%	16.19%	+5.01	6-1
1971-11-21	San Diego Chargers	W 34-33	1597.45	1508.27	66.44%	29.05%	+2.04	7-1
1971-11-28	Baltimore Colts	L 14-37	1599.49	1636.90	49.22%	45.61%	-16.33	7-2
1971-12-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-24	1583.16	1476.17	55.54%	39.41%	-12.66	7-3
1971-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1570.50	1593.44	37.27%	57.74%	-3.69	7-4
1971-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 21-13	1566.81	1431.25	71.90%	24.03%	+4.76	8-4
1971-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-37	1392.79	1504.31	26.55%	69.14%	-8.92	0-1
1971-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-42	1383.87	1607.62	25.24%	70.57%	-10.45	0-2
1971-10-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1373.42	1577.03	27.42%	68.20%	-10.16	0-3
1971-10-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-13	1363.26	1686.57	16.28%	80.58%	-4.07	0-4
1971-10-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-34	1359.19	1584.38	16.14%	80.74%	-5.48	0-5
1971-10-24	New York Giants	W 23-7	1353.71	1498.81	34.39%	60.76%	+16.65	1-5
1971-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1370.36	1452.78	42.80%	52.06%	+3.59	2-5
1971-11-07	@ Washington Redskins	T 7-7	1373.95	1540.18	21.06%	75.19%	+0.91	2-5
1971-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1374.86	1599.76	16.16%	80.72%	-4.04	2-6
1971-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-20	1370.82	1488.21	25.92%	69.83%	+19.61	3-6
1971-11-28	Washington Redskins	L 13-20	1390.43	1524.76	35.77%	59.31%	-6.62	3-7
1971-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1383.81	1657.24	12.84%	84.54%	+9.85	4-7
1971-12-12	St. Louis Cardinals	W 19-7	1393.66	1484.50	41.62%	53.26%	+12.71	5-7
1971-12-19	@ New York Giants	W 41-28	1406.37	1453.61	34.12%	61.04%	+15.07	6-7
1971-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 15-17	1382.51	1472.27	28.98%	66.51%	-2.87	0-1
1971-09-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-10	1379.64	1513.23	35.87%	59.21%	+13.47	1-1
1971-10-03	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1393.11	1525.01	36.09%	58.98%	+8.09	2-1
1971-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1401.20	1527.07	25.02%	70.81%	-5.54	2-2
1971-10-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-38	1395.66	1571.62	20.18%	76.18%	-6.59	2-3
1971-10-24	Houston Oilers	W 23-16	1389.07	1376.44	56.32%	38.65%	+7.14	3-3
1971-10-31	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-34	1396.21	1629.85	15.52%	81.46%	-3.87	3-4
1971-11-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-9	1392.34	1496.32	39.82%	55.11%	+15.63	4-4
1971-11-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-24	1407.97	1580.48	20.49%	75.83%	-2.48	4-5
1971-11-21	New York Giants	W 17-13	1405.49	1498.27	41.36%	53.53%	+7.38	5-5
1971-11-28	Denver Broncos	L 10-22	1412.87	1425.04	52.83%	42.05%	-12.61	5-6
1971-12-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-29	1400.26	1346.47	47.96%	46.86%	-16.94	5-7
1971-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-13	1383.32	1492.25	26.83%	68.83%	+13.27	6-7
1971-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-23	1396.59	1606.44	26.73%	68.95%	-5.61	6-8
1971-09-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-14	1539.44	1553.89	52.50%	42.37%	+7.80	1-0
1971-09-26	Oakland Raiders	L 0-34	1547.24	1540.99	55.43%	39.51%	-22.23	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1525.01	1393.11	58.98%	36.09%	-8.09	1-2
1971-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-31	1516.92	1560.53	34.59%	60.55%	-11.09	1-3
1971-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-20	1505.83	1421.14	52.39%	42.48%	-7.23	1-4
1971-10-23	Buffalo Bills	W 20-3	1498.60	1317.32	76.70%	19.71%	+5.67	2-4
1971-10-31	New York Jets	W 49-21	1504.27	1460.83	60.53%	34.61%	+12.81	3-4
1971-11-07	@ New York Giants	L 17-35	1517.08	1477.42	45.93%	48.89%	-13.52	3-5
1971-11-15	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1503.56	1492.92	56.04%	38.92%	+4.71	4-5
1971-11-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 33-34	1508.27	1597.45	29.05%	66.44%	-2.04	4-6
1971-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-31	1506.23	1480.98	43.88%	50.96%	-16.99	4-7
1971-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-14	1489.24	1708.13	25.76%	70.01%	+19.07	5-7
1971-12-12	Denver Broncos	W 45-17	1508.31	1443.07	63.40%	31.89%	+11.82	6-7
1971-12-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 33-49	1520.13	1371.01	61.29%	33.88%	-16.79	6-8
1971-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1575.98	1463.33	56.32%	38.64%	-6.71	0-1
1971-09-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-20	1569.27	1353.80	69.61%	26.12%	+7.76	1-1
1971-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-3	1577.03	1373.42	68.20%	27.42%	+10.16	2-1
1971-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1587.19	1601.60	52.51%	42.36%	-9.58	2-2
1971-10-17	Chicago Bears	W 13-0	1577.61	1485.37	66.82%	28.70%	+7.25	3-2
1971-10-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-14	1584.86	1503.51	51.91%	42.95%	+10.36	4-2
1971-10-31	New England Patriots	W 27-10	1595.22	1343.42	82.92%	14.25%	+4.05	5-2
1971-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-9	1599.27	1707.29	26.93%	68.73%	+9.37	6-2
1971-11-14	New Orleans Saints	L 20-26	1608.64	1342.22	84.03%	13.28%	-13.85	6-3
1971-11-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-17	1594.79	1618.31	37.19%	57.82%	-8.62	6-4
1971-11-28	@ New York Jets	W 24-21	1586.17	1461.35	58.01%	37.02%	+4.48	7-4
1971-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-26	1590.65	1581.94	55.77%	39.18%	-11.51	7-5
1971-12-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-3	1579.14	1488.84	66.58%	28.92%	+9.29	8-5
1971-12-19	Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1588.43	1636.76	47.65%	47.17%	+6.54	9-5
1971-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 17-24	1508.32	1484.45	57.87%	37.15%	-10.51	0-1
1971-09-27	New York Jets	W 17-10	1497.81	1484.71	56.38%	38.59%	+7.13	1-1
1971-10-03	New York Giants	L 20-21	1504.94	1513.80	53.30%	41.59%	-3.67	1-2
1971-10-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-9	1501.27	1468.35	44.97%	49.86%	+14.21	2-2
1971-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1515.48	1530.64	38.31%	56.67%	-11.97	2-3
1971-10-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-26	1503.51	1584.86	42.95%	51.91%	-10.36	2-4
1971-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-23	1493.15	1311.66	65.48%	29.94%	+4.69	3-4
1971-11-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-16	1497.84	1594.84	40.77%	54.13%	-4.92	3-5
1971-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1492.92	1503.56	38.92%	56.04%	-4.71	3-6
1971-11-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-37	1488.21	1370.82	69.83%	25.92%	-19.61	3-7
1971-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1468.60	1490.89	37.36%	57.65%	+16.33	4-7
1971-12-05	Green Bay Packers	T 16-16	1484.93	1441.77	60.49%	34.64%	-0.43	4-7
1971-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-19	1484.50	1393.66	53.26%	41.62%	-12.72	4-8
1971-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-31	1471.78	1644.06	20.51%	75.81%	-6.23	4-9
1971-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-17	1484.45	1508.32	37.15%	57.87%	+10.51	1-0
1971-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 30-3	1494.96	1535.20	35.02%	60.10%	+21.41	2-0
1971-10-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1516.37	1618.07	27.63%	67.97%	+9.26	3-0
1971-10-10	Houston Oilers	W 22-13	1525.63	1388.63	72.06%	23.88%	+5.01	4-0
1971-10-17	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-0	1530.64	1515.48	56.67%	38.31%	+11.97	5-0
1971-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1542.61	1578.22	35.61%	59.47%	-6.59	5-1
1971-10-31	New Orleans Saints	W 24-14	1536.02	1345.52	77.60%	18.91%	+4.16	6-1
1971-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	T 7-7	1540.18	1373.95	75.19%	21.06%	-0.91	6-1
1971-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 15-16	1539.27	1490.32	47.26%	47.56%	-3.27	6-2
1971-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-13	1536.00	1603.80	44.86%	49.97%	-11.24	6-3
1971-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-13	1524.76	1390.43	59.31%	35.77%	+6.62	7-3
1971-12-05	New York Giants	W 23-7	1531.38	1474.57	62.30%	32.92%	+9.23	8-3
1971-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-24	1540.61	1623.21	29.81%	65.62%	+16.76	9-3
1971-12-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-20	1557.37	1503.71	61.89%	33.32%	-11.21	9-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1971-12-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-3	1651.40	1514.92	62.20%	37.80%	+10.24	1-0
1972-01-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1661.64	1584.40	53.91%	46.09%	-16.24	1-1
1971-12-26	Baltimore Colts	L 3-20	1514.92	1651.40	37.80%	62.20%	-10.24	0-1
1971-12-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-12	1650.29	1706.26	35.21%	64.79%	+12.04	1-0
1972-01-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1662.33	1599.72	65.66%	34.34%	+7.48	2-0
1972-01-16	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-3	1669.81	1600.63	59.83%	40.17%	+12.10	3-0
1971-12-25	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1599.77	1577.54	60.24%	39.76%	-6.86	0-1
1971-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1577.54	1599.77	39.76%	60.24%	+6.86	1-0
1972-01-02	Baltimore Colts	W 21-0	1584.40	1661.64	46.09%	53.91%	+16.23	2-0
1972-01-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1600.63	1669.81	40.17%	59.83%	-12.09	2-1
1971-12-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 12-20	1706.26	1650.29	64.79%	35.21%	-12.04	0-1
1971-12-26	Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1594.97	1546.16	63.85%	36.15%	+4.75	1-0
1972-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-14	1599.72	1662.33	34.34%	65.66%	-7.48	1-1
1971-12-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1546.16	1594.97	36.15%	63.85%	-4.75	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1971-12-19	10.82%	New England Patriots	1354.67	21	@ Baltimore Colts	1663.05	17
2	1971-12-05	12.84%	Philadelphia Eagles	1383.81	23	@ Detroit Lions	1657.24	20
3	1971-11-14	13.28%	New Orleans Saints	1342.22	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1608.64	20
4	1971-09-26	16.67%	Chicago Bears	1475.14	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1693.34	17
5	1971-10-24	19.87%	Chicago Bears	1478.12	28	@ Detroit Lions	1657.58	23
6	1971-10-17	20.22%	@ New Orleans Saints	1338.62	24	Dallas Cowboys	1614.14	14
7	1971-12-05	21.40%	@ New England Patriots	1336.84	34	Miami Dolphins	1599.34	13
8	1971-09-19	21.46%	@ New Orleans Saints	1343.65	24	Los Angeles Rams	1605.51	20
9	1971-09-19	25.03%	@ New England Patriots	1333.22	20	Oakland Raiders	1559.01	6
10	1971-12-05	25.76%	@ San Diego Chargers	1489.24	30	Minnesota Vikings	1708.13	14
11	1971-11-21	25.92%	Philadelphia Eagles	1370.82	37	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1488.21	20
12	1971-10-24	26.72%	Denver Broncos	1428.37	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1538.31	0
13	1971-12-12	26.83%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1383.32	21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1492.25	13
14	1971-11-07	26.93%	San Francisco 49ers	1599.27	13	@ Minnesota Vikings	1707.29	9
15	1971-11-28	27.54%	New Orleans Saints	1352.39	29	@ Green Bay Packers	1454.89	21
16	1971-10-03	27.63%	Washington Redskins	1516.37	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1618.07	16
17	1971-12-13	29.81%	Washington Redskins	1540.61	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1623.21	24
18	1971-09-26	30.66%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1535.90	14	@ Baltimore Colts	1611.32	13
19	1971-10-03	31.93%	New York Jets	1477.58	14	@ Miami Dolphins	1542.44	10
20	1971-10-31	32.61%	Miami Dolphins	1564.69	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1624.06	14
21	1971-10-31	32.92%	Atlanta Falcons	1457.04	31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1513.90	14
22	1971-12-19	33.32%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1503.71	20	@ Washington Redskins	1557.37	13
23	1971-12-19	33.88%	@ Houston Oilers	1371.01	49	San Diego Chargers	1520.13	33
24	1971-10-10	33.95%	@ New England Patriots	1337.63	20	New York Jets	1486.24	0
25	1971-12-19	34.12%	Philadelphia Eagles	1406.37	41	@ New York Giants	1453.61	28

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1971-10-24	24.41	Denver Broncos	27	1428.37	26.72%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	0	1538.31	68.96%
2	1971-12-05	23.26	@ New England Patriots	34	1336.84	21.40%	Miami Dolphins	13	1599.34	74.81%
3	1971-09-26	22.23	Oakland Raiders	34	1540.99	39.51%	@ San Diego Chargers	0	1547.24	55.43%
4	1971-09-26	21.41	Washington Redskins	30	1494.96	35.02%	@ New York Giants	3	1535.20	60.10%
5	1971-11-21	19.61	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1370.82	25.92%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1488.21	69.83%
6	1971-12-05	19.07	@ San Diego Chargers	30	1489.24	25.76%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1708.13	70.01%
7	1971-10-10	18.76	@ New England Patriots	20	1337.63	33.95%	New York Jets	0	1486.24	61.23%
8	1971-09-19	18.03	@ New England Patriots	20	1333.22	25.03%	Oakland Raiders	6	1559.01	70.81%
9	1971-10-31	17.58	Atlanta Falcons	31	1457.04	32.92%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1513.90	62.31%
10	1971-11-28	16.99	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1480.98	50.96%	San Diego Chargers	0	1506.23	43.88%
11	1971-12-05	16.94	@ Houston Oilers	29	1346.47	46.86%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1400.26	47.96%
12	1971-12-19	16.79	@ Houston Oilers	49	1371.01	33.88%	San Diego Chargers	33	1520.13	61.29%
13	1971-12-13	16.77	Washington Redskins	38	1540.61	29.81%	@ Los Angeles Rams	24	1623.21	65.62%
14	1971-10-24	16.65	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1353.71	34.39%	New York Giants	7	1498.81	60.76%
15	1971-11-28	16.33	St. Louis Cardinals	24	1468.60	37.36%	@ New York Giants	7	1490.89	57.65%
16	1971-11-28	16.33	Baltimore Colts	37	1636.90	45.61%	@ Oakland Raiders	14	1599.49	49.22%
17	1971-10-17	16.32	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1338.62	20.22%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1614.14	76.14%
18	1972-01-02 *	16.24	@ Miami Dolphins	21	1584.40	46.09%	Baltimore Colts	0	1661.64	53.91%
19	1971-11-07	15.64	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	26	1392.34	39.82%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	1496.32	55.11%
20	1971-12-19	15.08	Philadelphia Eagles	41	1406.37	34.12%	@ New York Giants	28	1453.61	61.04%
21	1971-10-10	14.21	St. Louis Cardinals	26	1501.27	44.97%	@ Atlanta Falcons	9	1468.35	49.86%
22	1971-12-12	13.90	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1442.20	51.23%	Chicago Bears	10	1465.56	43.62%
23	1971-11-14	13.85	New Orleans Saints	26	1342.22	13.28%	@ San Francisco 49ers	20	1608.64	84.03%
24	1971-11-14	13.53	Cincinnati Bengals	24	1460.23	42.44%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1445.23	52.42%
25	1971-11-07	13.52	@ New York Giants	35	1477.42	48.89%	San Diego Chargers	17	1517.08	45.93%