1970 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1959

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

3.02 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.48 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Jets

3.22 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.22 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	8	6	0	.571	-	312	255	+57	5.95	+2.05
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	7	0	.500	1	286	265	+21	8.73	-1.73
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	9	0	.357	3	210	272	-62	4.21	+0.79
4	Houston Oilers	3	10	1	.250	4.5	217	352	-135	6.33	-2.83

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	11	2	1	.821	-	321	234	+87	9.75	+1.75
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	10	4	0	.714	1.5	297	228	+69	7.46	+2.54
3	New York Jets	4	10	0	.286	7.5	255	286	-31	7.22	-3.22
4	Buffalo Bills	3	10	1	.250	8	204	337	-133	4.67	-1.17
5	Boston Patriots	2	12	0	.143	9.5	149	361	-212	3.67	-1.67

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	8	4	2	.643	-	300	293	+7	9.25	-0.25
2	Kansas City Chiefs	7	5	2	.571	1	272	244	+28	8.89	-0.89
3	San Diego Chargers	5	6	3	.464	2.5	282	278	+4	6.95	-0.45
4	Denver Broncos	5	8	1	.393	3.5	253	264	-11	6.34	-0.84

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	.857	-	335	143	+192	11.70	+0.30
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	10	4	.714	2	347	202	+145	9.30	+0.70
3	Green Bay Packers	6	8	.429	6	196	293	-97	6.05	-0.05
4	Chicago Bears	6	8	.429	6	256	261	-5	4.29	+1.71

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	4	0	.714	-	299	221	+78	8.46	+1.54
2	New York Giants	9	5	0	.643	1	301	270	+31	8.24	+0.76
3	St. Louis Cardinals	8	5	1	.607	1.5	325	228	+97	6.51	+1.99
4	Washington Redskins	6	8	0	.429	4	297	314	-17	6.71	-0.71
5	Philadelphia Eagles	3	10	1	.250	6.5	241	332	-91	3.78	-0.28

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	10	3	1	.750	-	352	267	+85	7.48	+3.02
2	Los Angeles Rams	9	4	1	.679	1	325	202	+123	8.41	+1.09
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	8	2	.357	5.5	206	261	-55	7.82	-2.82
4	New Orleans Saints	2	11	1	.179	8	172	347	-175	3.84	-1.34

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Baltimore Colts 17

Cincinnati Bengals 0

Dec 26

Oakland Raiders 21

Miami Dolphins 14

Dec 27

Conference Championship

Baltimore Colts 27

Oakland Raiders 17

Jan 3

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 5

Detroit Lions 0

Dec 26

San Francisco 49ers 17

Minnesota Vikings 14

Dec 27

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 17

San Francisco 49ers 10

Jan 3

Super Bowl

Baltimore Colts 16

Dallas Cowboys 13

Jan 17

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1841	12	11.70	+0.30	75.81%	4	9	11	12	12	14	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1758	10	9.30	+0.70	82.05%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1670	9.5	8.41	+1.09	80.01%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1647	10	8.46	+1.54	92.47%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1643	10.5	7.48	+3.02	97.57%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1641	11.5	9.75	+1.75	89.75%	2	7	8	9	11	12	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1617	9	9.25	-0.25	62.40%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1592	8	8.89	-0.89	47.78%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1580	10	7.46	+2.54	97.84%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1564	6.5	6.95	-0.45	48.38%	0	4	5	7	8	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1556	9	8.24	+0.76	81.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1542	7	8.73	-1.73	29.72%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1527	8	5.95	+2.05	96.02%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1512	8.5	6.51	+1.99	91.52%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1486	4	7.22	-3.22	7.61%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1471	6	6.71	-0.71	53.55%	0	4	5	6	8	9	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1449	6	4.29	+1.71	94.61%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1435	5	7.82	-2.82	12.48%	0	5	6	8	9	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1433	6	6.05	-0.05	68.27%	0	3	5	6	7	8	13
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1409	5.5	6.34	-0.84	39.67%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1334	3.5	6.33	-2.83	6.55%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1302	3.5	3.78	-0.28	52.38%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1298	5	4.21	+0.79	84.20%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1239	3.5	4.67	-1.17	29.80%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1233	2.5	3.84	-1.34	26.63%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11
Boston Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1219	2	3.67	-1.67	28.79%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Patriots	Bills	Dolphins	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Boston Patriots	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-1-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-
Boston Patriots	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	-
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	-
Oakland Raiders	2-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	-	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	-	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.10%	1.37%	4.12%	1.65%	1.37%	1.10%	0.27%	10.99%
7–13	1.37%	2.20%	5.77%	3.85%	2.75%	0.82%	1.37%	18.13%
14–20	4.12%	5.77%	7.14%	6.59%	4.95%	1.92%	0.27%	30.77%
21–27	1.65%	3.85%	6.59%	2.20%	3.02%	0.82%	0.55%	18.68%
28–34	1.37%	2.75%	4.95%	3.02%	1.65%	0.27%	—	14.01%
35–41	1.10%	0.82%	1.92%	0.82%	0.27%	—	—	4.95%
42+	0.27%	1.37%	0.27%	0.55%	—	—	—	2.47%
Total	10.99%	18.13%	30.77%	18.68%	14.01%	4.95%	2.47%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.26	19.26	+0.00
SD	10.38	10.38	16.20
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	54	54	+44
Min	0	0	-44

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.71	18.64	-3.93
SD	8.97	8.33	12.38
CV	0.61	0.45	—
Max	32	37	+18
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.93	16.71	+6.21
SD	7.30	11.74	14.45
CV	0.32	0.70	—
Max	35	44	+35
Min	13	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.64	25.79	-15.14
SD	8.21	11.79	14.41
CV	0.77	0.46	—
Max	27	45	+13
Min	0	10	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	—	14.29%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.57	24.07	-9.50
SD	11.57	11.47	17.45
CV	0.79	0.48	—
Max	45	45	+35
Min	0	6	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	18.64	-0.36
SD	9.27	7.80	14.35
CV	0.51	0.42	—
Max	35	37	+21
Min	0	3	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	18.21	+4.07
SD	13.78	9.35	20.14
CV	0.62	0.51	—
Max	45	38	+38
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.43	18.93	+1.50
SD	9.62	11.70	13.66
CV	0.47	0.62	—
Max	31	41	+28
Min	2	0	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.36	15.79	+5.57
SD	14.73	15.31	23.66
CV	0.69	0.97	—
Max	52	54	+42
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	18.86	-0.79
SD	8.58	8.46	13.09
CV	0.47	0.45	—
Max	31	35	+25
Min	0	6	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.79	14.43	+10.36
SD	9.81	10.91	16.88
CV	0.40	0.76	—
Max	41	31	+40
Min	10	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	20.93	-6.93
SD	9.95	9.30	13.84
CV	0.71	0.44	—
Max	30	40	+13
Min	0	10	-40

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	—	14.29%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.50	25.14	-9.64
SD	9.22	12.51	16.56
CV	0.59	0.50	—
Max	31	52	+12
Min	0	7	-44

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.43	17.43	+2.00
SD	10.50	9.10	14.11
CV	0.54	0.52	—
Max	44	31	+20
Min	6	0	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	14.43	+8.79
SD	11.03	8.69	14.30
CV	0.48	0.60	—
Max	37	31	+28
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	28.57%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	16.29	+4.93
SD	12.77	9.15	19.50
CV	0.60	0.56	—
Max	45	35	+38
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	42.86%	28.57%	—	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.93	10.21	+13.71
SD	12.52	6.78	13.76
CV	0.52	0.66	—
Max	54	20	+41
Min	10	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.29	24.79	-12.50
SD	7.81	7.91	9.62
CV	0.64	0.32	—
Max	27	38	+4
Min	0	10	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	19.29	+2.21
SD	9.99	9.39	13.61
CV	0.46	0.49	—
Max	35	33	+18
Min	3	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.21	20.43	-2.21
SD	8.69	9.48	9.77
CV	0.48	0.46	—
Max	31	35	+14
Min	6	3	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.43	20.93	+0.50
SD	8.26	8.11	12.92
CV	0.39	0.39	—
Max	35	38	+17
Min	7	6	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.21	23.71	-6.50
SD	6.85	6.65	8.99
CV	0.40	0.28	—
Max	30	35	+10
Min	6	13	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	28.57%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	19.43	-4.43
SD	6.80	9.78	13.06
CV	0.45	0.50	—
Max	28	34	+19
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	—	57.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	19.86	+0.29
SD	6.78	8.26	11.41
CV	0.34	0.42	—
Max	31	37	+18
Min	10	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.14	19.07	+6.07
SD	9.49	8.08	13.65
CV	0.38	0.42	—
Max	38	31	+31
Min	7	6	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	7.14%	35.71%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	16.29	+6.93
SD	11.69	12.78	20.60
CV	0.50	0.78	—
Max	44	35	+44
Min	3	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	22.43	-1.21
SD	9.01	13.39	16.98
CV	0.42	0.60	—
Max	33	45	+21
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.76	+0.5
Allowed	0.72	-0.5
Differential	0.85	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	10.5	7.48	+3.02
2	Miami Dolphins	10	7.46	+2.54
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	5.95	+2.05
4	St. Louis Cardinals	8.5	6.51	+1.99
5	Baltimore Colts	11.5	9.75	+1.75

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Jets	4	7.22	-3.22
2	Houston Oilers	3.5	6.33	-2.83
3	Atlanta Falcons	5	7.82	-2.82
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	8.73	-1.73
5	Boston Patriots	2	3.67	-1.67

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	7	Nov 8 – Dec 20	1 in 142
2	New York Jets	3	Nov 15 – Nov 29	1 in 53
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Sep 27 – Oct 18	1 in 41
4	New York Giants	6	Oct 11 – Nov 15	1 in 40
5	Green Bay Packers	3	Sep 27 – Oct 12	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Jets	6	Oct 4 – Nov 8	1 in 1,360
2	Boston Patriots	9	Sep 27 – Nov 22	1 in 33
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Nov 1 – Nov 15	1 in 21
4	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 8 – Dec 6	1 in 21
5	New York Giants	3	Sep 19 – Oct 4	1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	75.18%	17.99%	5.78%	1.05%
Houston Oilers	13.84%	40.07%	33.00%	13.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.51%	33.22%	38.02%	19.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.47%	8.72%	23.21%	66.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	72.90%	19.50%	6.52%	0.96%	0.12%
Miami Dolphins	13.91%	38.79%	35.16%	9.88%	2.25%
New York Jets	12.47%	35.99%	37.32%	11.40%	2.81%
Buffalo Bills	0.55%	4.08%	14.03%	47.79%	33.55%
Boston Patriots	0.16%	1.64%	6.97%	29.96%	61.27%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	48.81%	31.81%	14.05%	5.33%
Kansas City Chiefs	38.40%	36.83%	17.87%	6.90%
San Diego Chargers	8.54%	19.03%	38.07%	34.36%
Denver Broncos	4.25%	12.33%	30.01%	53.41%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	85.27%	14.21%	0.51%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	14.32%	75.99%	8.97%	0.72%
Green Bay Packers	0.40%	8.62%	68.44%	22.54%
Chicago Bears	0.02%	1.18%	22.08%	76.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	43.77%	30.19%	16.68%	8.09%	1.26%
New York Giants	35.23%	30.58%	20.48%	11.43%	2.28%
Washington Redskins	11.68%	20.34%	29.46%	29.51%	9.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.98%	17.41%	28.31%	34.83%	10.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.34%	1.48%	5.06%	16.14%	76.97%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	46.45%	30.81%	20.59%	2.15%
Atlanta Falcons	29.46%	34.38%	31.58%	4.58%
San Francisco 49ers	23.60%	32.47%	37.95%	5.98%
New Orleans Saints	0.49%	2.34%	9.88%	87.29%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Baltimore Colts	32.81%	24.27%	15.32%	9.87%	6.97%	4.41%	2.84%	1.76%	0.92%	0.49%	0.23%	0.09%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders	23.89%	19.71%	15.48%	13.03%	9.37%	6.48%	4.61%	3.23%	2.10%	1.27%	0.60%	0.19%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.35%	16.79%	16.20%	14.81%	10.94%	8.04%	6.14%	4.10%	2.62%	1.76%	0.85%	0.34%	0.07%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.49%	17.73%	19.63%	14.54%	10.48%	8.17%	5.79%	4.13%	2.96%	1.72%	0.89%	0.38%	0.08%
Miami Dolphins	3.92%	6.18%	8.54%	11.37%	13.66%	12.86%	12.06%	11.02%	8.39%	5.57%	3.67%	1.86%	0.90%
New York Jets	3.16%	5.10%	7.34%	10.30%	12.86%	12.90%	12.58%	11.73%	9.37%	6.49%	4.29%	2.54%	1.35%
San Diego Chargers	2.74%	4.26%	6.28%	8.71%	9.71%	11.51%	12.53%	12.04%	10.80%	9.68%	6.90%	3.54%	1.29%
Houston Oilers	0.97%	2.22%	4.12%	5.88%	8.91%	11.17%	12.05%	12.51%	13.05%	11.81%	8.63%	6.30%	2.40%
Denver Broncos	1.17%	2.22%	3.67%	5.74%	7.17%	9.29%	11.18%	12.27%	12.85%	13.57%	11.50%	6.81%	2.56%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.45%	1.24%	2.64%	4.11%	6.46%	9.40%	11.01%	12.36%	14.49%	13.73%	10.98%	9.08%	4.06%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.17%	0.37%	0.80%	1.73%	2.70%	4.30%	6.70%	9.55%	14.21%	19.73%	18.23%	21.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.09%	0.33%	0.62%	1.22%	2.15%	3.36%	5.32%	8.27%	11.56%	16.61%	28.09%	22.34%
Boston Patriots	<0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.21%	0.52%	0.92%	1.54%	2.84%	4.64%	8.12%	15.13%	22.56%	43.40%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	74.55%	14.72%	5.94%	2.79%	1.17%	0.50%	0.19%	0.09%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Detroit Lions	10.87%	20.19%	19.67%	17.18%	12.34%	8.42%	5.01%	3.07%	1.88%	0.92%	0.30%	0.12%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	3.77%	15.07%	16.10%	14.35%	13.14%	11.67%	8.80%	6.73%	4.77%	3.46%	1.40%	0.57%	0.17%
Los Angeles Rams	3.78%	14.98%	15.06%	14.57%	13.04%	11.92%	9.41%	7.43%	5.19%	2.83%	1.21%	0.47%	0.11%
New York Giants	2.96%	13.18%	13.40%	13.03%	13.03%	11.72%	10.15%	8.01%	6.19%	4.59%	2.26%	1.02%	0.45%
Atlanta Falcons	1.80%	8.77%	10.64%	11.98%	13.24%	13.34%	12.40%	10.54%	8.06%	4.94%	2.62%	1.19%	0.47%
San Francisco 49ers	1.19%	6.67%	8.60%	10.39%	11.99%	13.08%	12.86%	12.15%	10.22%	6.58%	3.77%	1.86%	0.65%
Washington Redskins	0.57%	3.16%	4.70%	6.32%	8.57%	10.10%	12.31%	13.08%	12.97%	13.13%	7.98%	4.58%	2.52%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.27%	2.31%	3.67%	5.36%	7.23%	9.21%	11.51%	13.32%	14.24%	14.85%	9.32%	5.50%	3.22%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	0.84%	1.88%	3.24%	4.62%	7.06%	11.24%	14.79%	17.87%	15.71%	12.21%	7.13%	3.19%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	0.03%	0.11%	0.29%	0.58%	1.16%	2.58%	4.85%	8.43%	13.81%	24.72%	23.88%	19.55%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.04%	0.12%	0.27%	0.56%	0.97%	1.88%	3.15%	5.26%	9.92%	19.27%	28.57%	29.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	-	0.03%	0.10%	0.22%	0.49%	0.85%	1.65%	2.79%	4.88%	9.26%	14.93%	25.12%	39.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Minnesota Vikings	59.00%	18.63%	8.80%	4.93%	3.13%	1.83%	1.41%	0.83%	0.50%	0.32%	0.24%	0.15%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	<0.01%	-	-	-	-
Baltimore Colts	9.47%	18.07%	13.22%	12.40%	8.71%	7.90%	5.83%	5.24%	3.92%	3.58%	2.59%	2.36%	1.64%	1.45%	0.97%	0.83%	0.57%	0.43%	0.29%	0.22%	0.13%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Detroit Lions	7.22%	8.67%	11.09%	9.70%	10.14%	8.63%	8.42%	6.93%	6.22%	5.08%	4.20%	3.33%	2.70%	1.97%	1.69%	1.19%	0.97%	0.70%	0.47%	0.30%	0.17%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Oakland Raiders	6.38%	13.19%	10.75%	10.16%	8.66%	7.89%	6.91%	6.21%	5.26%	4.76%	3.81%	3.28%	2.75%	2.24%	1.93%	1.56%	1.25%	1.04%	0.69%	0.52%	0.36%	0.22%	0.10%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.54%	9.27%	8.68%	8.94%	8.53%	8.15%	7.50%	7.05%	6.00%	5.72%	4.57%	4.15%	3.48%	3.08%	2.45%	2.13%	1.59%	1.26%	1.05%	0.73%	0.50%	0.29%	0.16%	0.12%	0.03%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.26%	7.87%	8.27%	9.14%	8.87%	9.20%	7.38%	7.37%	6.01%	5.64%	4.57%	4.35%	3.54%	3.20%	2.58%	2.21%	1.81%	1.45%	1.09%	0.90%	0.55%	0.34%	0.22%	0.10%	0.05%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	2.31%	4.49%	7.32%	7.31%	8.19%	7.68%	7.68%	6.88%	6.94%	6.05%	6.04%	5.04%	4.71%	3.85%	3.60%	2.80%	2.50%	1.89%	1.76%	1.11%	0.78%	0.49%	0.30%	0.18%	0.08%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	2.24%	4.19%	7.24%	7.08%	7.95%	7.30%	7.67%	7.09%	7.01%	5.84%	6.28%	5.13%	5.03%	3.97%	3.77%	3.13%	2.62%	2.07%	1.52%	1.11%	0.73%	0.49%	0.29%	0.16%	0.08%	0.03%
New York Giants	1.75%	3.98%	6.16%	6.52%	6.75%	6.85%	6.85%	6.65%	6.70%	6.34%	5.93%	5.45%	5.10%	4.45%	4.12%	3.51%	3.01%	2.64%	2.19%	1.72%	1.25%	0.83%	0.55%	0.36%	0.22%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	1.02%	2.24%	4.05%	4.72%	5.48%	5.76%	6.20%	6.44%	6.75%	6.51%	6.68%	6.37%	6.09%	5.52%	5.17%	4.56%	3.94%	3.39%	2.55%	2.23%	1.55%	1.15%	0.75%	0.48%	0.26%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers	0.66%	1.71%	3.19%	3.54%	4.34%	4.77%	5.33%	5.57%	6.34%	5.88%	6.70%	6.13%	6.49%	5.80%	5.99%	5.33%	5.05%	4.37%	3.56%	2.92%	2.12%	1.69%	1.17%	0.76%	0.41%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	0.58%	2.08%	2.58%	3.49%	3.83%	4.75%	5.07%	5.86%	6.00%	6.85%	6.29%	6.82%	6.16%	6.53%	5.65%	5.68%	4.71%	4.36%	3.31%	2.95%	2.19%	1.65%	1.08%	0.81%	0.47%	0.25%
New York Jets	0.49%	1.57%	2.07%	2.77%	3.31%	4.02%	4.51%	5.33%	5.49%	6.45%	6.17%	6.81%	6.24%	6.80%	5.92%	6.22%	5.34%	4.97%	3.88%	3.46%	2.64%	2.07%	1.45%	1.01%	0.69%	0.32%
San Diego Chargers	0.35%	1.38%	1.75%	2.43%	2.73%	3.35%	3.89%	4.32%	4.68%	5.31%	5.48%	5.87%	5.95%	6.51%	6.14%	6.33%	5.73%	5.65%	5.28%	4.78%	3.72%	3.30%	2.16%	1.61%	0.82%	0.48%
Washington Redskins	0.28%	0.66%	1.41%	1.71%	2.37%	2.71%	3.31%	3.62%	4.47%	4.53%	5.35%	5.32%	6.27%	5.96%	6.64%	6.13%	6.57%	6.07%	6.03%	5.50%	4.37%	3.74%	2.76%	2.05%	1.36%	0.83%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.14%	0.45%	1.00%	1.31%	1.79%	2.13%	2.89%	3.03%	3.84%	3.92%	4.78%	5.06%	5.94%	5.94%	6.76%	6.53%	6.85%	6.91%	6.83%	6.18%	5.08%	4.16%	3.24%	2.33%	1.91%	1.00%
Houston Oilers	0.11%	0.46%	0.69%	1.19%	1.49%	2.08%	2.42%	3.11%	3.72%	4.44%	4.66%	5.69%	5.66%	6.36%	6.23%	6.88%	6.68%	6.84%	6.53%	6.37%	5.18%	4.51%	3.48%	2.82%	1.54%	0.88%
Denver Broncos	0.11%	0.60%	0.86%	1.24%	1.51%	1.98%	2.57%	3.02%	3.29%	3.85%	4.46%	4.70%	5.27%	5.76%	6.18%	6.49%	6.73%	6.73%	6.85%	6.52%	6.00%	5.35%	3.92%	3.18%	1.77%	1.07%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.22%	0.42%	0.57%	1.02%	1.12%	1.75%	1.94%	2.50%	2.86%	3.97%	4.14%	5.50%	5.80%	6.80%	7.13%	7.72%	8.08%	7.53%	7.50%	6.26%	5.76%	4.46%	3.38%	2.19%	1.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.24%	0.36%	0.63%	0.89%	1.32%	1.59%	2.15%	2.48%	3.40%	3.61%	4.89%	4.82%	5.98%	5.96%	6.95%	7.10%	7.67%	7.27%	7.39%	6.57%	5.64%	5.00%	3.92%	2.60%	1.55%
Buffalo Bills	<0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.08%	0.12%	0.20%	0.24%	0.42%	0.60%	0.87%	1.09%	1.46%	1.71%	2.56%	2.91%	3.68%	4.53%	5.57%	6.78%	7.93%	9.64%	10.31%	10.09%	9.86%	10.42%	8.87%
Chicago Bears	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.13%	0.20%	0.28%	0.40%	0.58%	0.79%	1.23%	1.56%	2.30%	2.84%	3.85%	4.62%	6.31%	7.38%	10.24%	11.35%	12.24%	12.01%	11.31%	10.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.07%	0.14%	0.20%	0.32%	0.36%	0.61%	0.81%	1.12%	1.34%	1.78%	2.26%	2.88%	3.66%	4.52%	5.65%	6.70%	8.39%	9.53%	12.06%	13.29%	12.14%	12.10%
New Orleans Saints	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%	0.17%	0.24%	0.33%	0.44%	0.60%	0.90%	1.05%	1.51%	1.83%	2.69%	3.15%	4.48%	5.59%	7.77%	9.78%	11.87%	14.48%	15.38%	17.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.16%	0.24%	0.24%	0.40%	0.51%	0.79%	1.01%	1.32%	1.62%	2.40%	2.95%	4.30%	5.04%	6.79%	8.40%	11.44%	13.46%	17.56%	21.16%
Boston Patriots	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.09%	0.16%	0.23%	0.29%	0.48%	0.62%	0.81%	1.12%	1.53%	2.10%	2.66%	3.81%	4.93%	7.03%	8.79%	11.09%	13.52%	18.67%	21.94%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	32.81%	26.68%	13.42%	8.18%	18.92%
Oakland Raiders	23.89%	17.56%	7.37%	20.29%	30.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.35%	14.15%	6.91%	23.25%	38.35%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.49%	20.47%	41.22%	2.14%	22.68%
Miami Dolphins	3.92%	5.91%	4.08%	12.53%	73.56%
New York Jets	3.16%	5.20%	4.12%	10.63%	76.89%
San Diego Chargers	2.74%	3.50%	2.31%	10.23%	81.23%
Denver Broncos	1.17%	1.87%	1.21%	6.28%	89.47%
Houston Oilers	0.97%	2.75%	10.11%	3.26%	82.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.45%	1.54%	7.53%	2.12%	88.37%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.21%	0.31%	0.61%	98.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.13%	1.32%	0.33%	98.20%
Boston Patriots	<0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.14%	99.70%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	74.55%	8.99%	1.73%	12.25%	2.48%
Detroit Lions	10.87%	2.72%	0.72%	49.65%	36.04%
Los Angeles Rams	3.78%	19.78%	22.89%	5.25%	48.30%
Dallas Cowboys	3.77%	20.94%	19.07%	5.88%	50.34%
New York Giants	2.96%	17.81%	14.46%	6.58%	58.19%
Atlanta Falcons	1.80%	12.36%	15.30%	5.43%	65.11%
San Francisco 49ers	1.19%	9.05%	13.36%	5.05%	71.35%
Washington Redskins	0.57%	4.73%	6.37%	3.12%	85.20%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.27%	3.38%	5.33%	2.53%	88.49%
Green Bay Packers	0.22%	0.10%	0.07%	3.81%	95.79%
New Orleans Saints	<0.01%	0.07%	0.41%	0.11%	99.41%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.26%	99.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	-	0.07%	0.27%	0.07%	99.59%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+15.93%

Fortress

55.49%4.95%39.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge

29 Elo

0.034 points per Elo point

055.8480

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.20 points

Lean Home

-8+1.91+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th · Middle of the Pack: 5th to 13th · Longshot: 14th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.0

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

10%

Baltimore Colts, 3rd of 26

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

19.5%

Favored

012.50%30%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.33 · As Expected: 1.33 to 1.83 · Elevated: 1.83 to 2.49 · High Variance: 2.49 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 3.32 · Close: 3.32 to 4.5 · Off Target: 4.5 to 5.87 · Well Off Target: 5.87 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 26 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 3.12 · Several Outliers: 3.12 to 5.72 · Many Outliers: 5.72 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.86 · As Expected: 1.86 to 3.1 · More Than Expected: 3.1 to 4.96 · Far More Than Expected: 4.96 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.67 wins

As Expected

01.664

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.65

03.918

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.08%

97.84%

Miami Dolphins

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.92%

6.55%

Houston Oilers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 26

As Expected

02.613

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

3 of 8

As Expected

02.58

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.11

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

19%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Routine

0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.191

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.03

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.47

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

34%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.23 · Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.07

Borderline

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.78

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.084

Within Noise

00.1140.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	97.52%	80.98%	60.00%	46.15%
Detroit Lions	63.96%	43.82%	17.85%	12.69%
Baltimore Colts	81.08%	53.60%	31.96%	10.29%
Oakland Raiders	69.10%	41.95%	22.13%	6.72%
Los Angeles Rams	51.70%	18.37%	7.38%	4.58%
Kansas City Chiefs	61.65%	33.73%	16.55%	4.57%
Dallas Cowboys	49.66%	21.75%	6.53%	3.89%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	77.32%	29.87%	13.53%	3.23%
San Francisco 49ers	28.65%	8.99%	3.29%	1.97%
Miami Dolphins	26.44%	13.35%	6.13%	1.64%
New York Giants	41.81%	13.44%	2.92%	1.44%
San Diego Chargers	18.77%	8.83%	3.79%	0.97%
New York Jets	23.11%	8.84%	3.02%	0.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.63%	3.95%	1.58%	0.36%
Atlanta Falcons	34.89%	4.96%	0.82%	0.29%
St. Louis Cardinals	11.51%	3.06%	0.56%	0.24%
Washington Redskins	14.80%	3.36%	0.51%	0.19%
Denver Broncos	10.53%	2.86%	0.73%	0.10%
Houston Oilers	17.10%	2.63%	0.53%	0.06%
Green Bay Packers	4.21%	1.11%	0.12%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	0.07%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.80%	0.21%	0.03%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.41%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.60%	0.04%	<0.01%	-
Buffalo Bills	1.17%	0.14%	0.01%	-
Boston Patriots	0.30%	0.04%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts				70.7%2.89%	66.7%20.46%	83.3%5.25%	87.5%3.94%	62.4%20.97%			58.3%18.90%	93.5%0.38%	68.0%8.29%
Boston Patriots				0.0%<0.01%	15.6%0.03%	21.1%0.02%	40.0%<0.01%	12.4%0.09%			8.9%0.11%		9.3%0.04%
Buffalo Bills				16.7%0.01%	12.7%0.12%	34.9%0.04%	50.0%0.04%	10.6%0.38%			8.4%0.46%	0.0%<0.01%	7.0%0.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.3%2.89%	100.0%<0.01%	83.3%0.01%			64.2%0.36%		35.1%2.71%	37.8%0.67%	49.0%0.63%	30.1%3.72%		35.9%0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	33.3%20.46%	84.4%0.03%	87.3%0.12%			64.1%1.93%		39.8%18.57%	41.7%4.64%	56.4%4.14%	35.3%23.37%		44.0%4.04%
Denver Broncos	16.7%5.25%	78.9%0.02%	65.1%0.04%	35.8%0.36%	35.9%1.93%		64.8%0.42%		27.4%1.29%	38.7%1.16%		81.4%0.06%
Houston Oilers	12.5%3.94%	60.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.04%			35.2%0.42%		15.2%4.14%	18.3%0.89%	24.8%0.91%	13.5%5.81%		18.0%0.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	37.6%20.97%	87.6%0.09%	89.4%0.38%	64.9%2.71%	60.2%18.57%		84.8%4.14%		53.8%7.69%	67.0%6.67%		86.4%0.43%
Miami Dolphins				62.2%0.67%	58.3%4.64%	72.6%1.29%	81.7%0.89%	46.2%7.69%			41.8%8.69%	79.6%0.11%	52.4%2.46%
New York Jets				51.0%0.63%	43.6%4.14%	61.3%1.16%	75.2%0.91%	33.0%6.67%			30.3%7.40%	80.3%0.07%	38.4%2.12%
Oakland Raiders	41.7%18.90%	91.1%0.11%	91.6%0.46%	69.9%3.72%	64.7%23.37%		86.5%5.81%		58.2%8.69%	69.7%7.40%		90.3%0.63%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.5%0.38%		100.0%<0.01%			18.6%0.06%		13.6%0.43%	20.4%0.11%	19.7%0.07%	9.7%0.63%		8.8%0.11%
San Diego Chargers	32.0%8.29%	90.7%0.04%	93.0%0.11%	64.1%0.65%	56.0%4.04%		82.0%0.94%		47.6%2.46%	61.6%2.12%		91.2%0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		50.0%<0.01%	23.0%3.94%	10.8%4.16%	52.5%0.10%		7.0%21.04%		33.1%3.43%	69.2%0.01%		38.1%0.95%	45.9%1.26%
Chicago Bears	50.0%<0.01%		17.9%0.12%			12.5%<0.01%			33.3%0.07%		50.0%<0.01%	18.5%0.03%	38.3%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	77.0%3.94%	82.1%0.12%		41.7%22.21%	81.8%1.51%	47.1%7.19%	25.4%10.96%	84.7%0.07%			51.6%3.65%
Detroit Lions	89.2%4.16%		58.3%22.21%			68.0%5.89%		93.5%0.06%	70.5%18.14%	91.4%0.20%	70.9%3.05%	75.2%4.52%	79.9%5.73%
Green Bay Packers	47.5%0.10%		18.2%1.51%			22.9%0.18%			27.5%1.44%	60.0%0.01%	30.0%0.07%	30.5%0.36%	38.5%0.54%
Los Angeles Rams		87.5%<0.01%	52.9%7.19%	32.0%5.89%	77.1%0.18%		21.9%29.66%		65.4%5.34%	80.4%0.05%		71.3%1.40%	76.4%1.99%
Minnesota Vikings	93.0%21.04%		74.6%10.96%			78.1%29.66%		97.9%0.38%	83.8%10.44%	97.4%0.12%	81.0%17.21%	88.6%3.43%	90.3%4.29%
New Orleans Saints			15.3%0.07%	6.5%0.06%			2.1%0.38%		15.6%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%		16.7%0.01%	15.8%0.02%
New York Giants	66.9%3.43%	66.7%0.07%		29.5%18.14%	72.5%1.44%	34.6%5.34%	16.2%10.44%	84.4%0.04%			38.6%2.91%
Philadelphia Eagles	30.8%0.01%			8.6%0.20%	40.0%0.01%	19.6%0.05%	2.6%0.12%	50.0%<0.01%			16.0%0.03%
San Francisco 49ers		50.0%<0.01%	48.4%3.65%	29.1%3.05%	70.0%0.07%		19.0%17.21%		61.4%2.91%	84.0%0.03%		66.0%0.80%	71.7%0.94%
St. Louis Cardinals	61.9%0.95%	81.5%0.03%		24.8%4.52%	69.5%0.36%	28.7%1.40%	11.4%3.43%	83.3%0.01%			34.0%0.80%
Washington Redskins	54.1%1.26%	61.7%0.05%		20.1%5.73%	61.5%0.54%	23.6%1.99%	9.7%4.29%	84.2%0.02%			28.3%0.94%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		87.5%<0.01%	88.9%0.03%	67.9%1.43%	62.2%10.86%	79.1%0.86%	83.9%0.97%	57.0%11.89%	60.4%4.61%	71.1%2.83%	54.0%17.49%	88.1%0.10%	63.7%2.54%
Boston Patriots	12.5%<0.01%				14.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	12.5%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		10.0%0.01%
Buffalo Bills	11.1%0.03%			0.0%<0.01%	6.5%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.03%	12.5%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	8.3%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	32.1%1.43%		100.0%<0.01%		41.1%0.38%	63.2%0.06%	73.3%0.01%	43.6%0.61%	44.1%0.35%	60.1%0.20%	40.1%0.73%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.17%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.8%10.86%	85.7%<0.01%	93.5%0.03%	58.9%0.38%		71.3%0.54%	72.6%0.26%	47.1%5.55%	49.2%2.62%	62.3%1.68%	43.0%6.29%	66.7%0.01%	56.4%1.65%
Denver Broncos	20.9%0.86%		100.0%<0.01%	36.8%0.06%	28.7%0.54%		56.2%0.03%	27.0%0.44%	28.7%0.13%	33.8%0.08%	24.1%0.63%	100.0%<0.01%	24.1%0.09%
Houston Oilers	16.1%0.97%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.01%	27.4%0.26%	43.8%0.03%		18.7%0.39%	23.5%0.21%	28.1%0.15%	19.0%0.51%	0.0%<0.01%	26.2%0.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	43.0%11.89%	87.5%<0.01%	100.0%0.03%	56.4%0.61%	52.9%5.55%	73.0%0.44%	81.3%0.39%		55.3%2.10%	66.1%1.45%	46.2%9.84%	90.0%0.02%	56.5%1.41%
Miami Dolphins	39.6%4.61%	50.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	55.9%0.35%	50.8%2.62%	71.3%0.13%	76.5%0.21%	44.7%2.10%		64.6%0.39%	44.6%2.50%	83.3%0.01%	48.2%0.42%
New York Jets	28.9%2.83%		100.0%<0.01%	39.9%0.20%	37.7%1.68%	66.2%0.08%	71.9%0.15%	33.9%1.45%	35.4%0.39%		32.8%1.75%	85.7%<0.01%	39.9%0.31%
Oakland Raiders	46.0%17.49%	90.0%0.01%	91.7%0.04%	59.9%0.73%	57.0%6.29%	75.9%0.63%	81.0%0.51%	53.8%9.84%	55.4%2.50%	67.2%1.75%		88.2%0.03%	58.0%2.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.9%0.10%			50.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.02%	16.7%0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	11.8%0.03%		27.3%0.01%
San Diego Chargers	36.3%2.54%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.17%	43.6%1.65%	75.9%0.09%	73.8%0.10%	43.5%1.41%	51.8%0.42%	60.1%0.31%	42.0%2.14%	72.7%0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			25.6%0.48%	18.6%0.88%	54.5%0.02%	21.1%0.38%	9.0%2.61%		34.3%0.27%		30.0%0.19%	32.4%0.07%	49.3%0.07%
Chicago Bears				0.0%<0.01%		12.5%<0.01%	9.3%0.05%		100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	74.4%0.48%			33.9%1.74%	79.2%0.02%	47.3%2.03%	22.1%15.32%	100.0%<0.01%	57.5%0.79%	66.7%<0.01%	52.2%1.05%	65.2%0.14%	73.7%0.18%
Detroit Lions	81.4%0.88%	100.0%<0.01%	66.1%1.74%		89.8%0.06%	52.0%3.82%	34.9%34.32%	75.0%<0.01%	76.1%0.96%		55.8%1.65%	79.4%0.17%	83.1%0.21%
Green Bay Packers	45.5%0.02%		20.8%0.02%	10.2%0.06%		21.5%0.11%	7.1%0.83%	100.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.01%		17.4%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	78.9%0.38%	87.5%<0.01%	52.7%2.03%	48.0%3.82%	78.5%0.11%		25.6%9.43%		65.0%1.25%	75.0%<0.01%	54.6%0.73%	71.3%0.30%	74.4%0.32%
Minnesota Vikings	91.0%2.61%	90.7%0.05%	77.9%15.32%	65.1%34.32%	92.9%0.83%	74.4%9.43%		100.0%0.02%	85.0%9.40%	97.1%0.03%	77.1%4.47%	88.3%2.17%	90.6%2.33%
New Orleans Saints			0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%				50.0%<0.01%
New York Giants	65.7%0.27%	0.0%<0.01%	42.5%0.79%	23.9%0.96%	71.4%0.01%	35.0%1.25%	15.0%9.40%	0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	40.5%0.59%	40.0%0.08%	59.8%0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles			33.3%<0.01%			25.0%<0.01%	2.9%0.03%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	70.0%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%	47.8%1.05%	44.2%1.65%	82.6%0.05%	45.4%0.73%	22.9%4.47%		59.5%0.59%	100.0%<0.01%		68.9%0.13%	68.4%0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	67.6%0.07%		34.8%0.14%	20.6%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%	28.7%0.30%	11.7%2.17%		60.0%0.08%		31.1%0.13%		50.0%0.02%
Washington Redskins	50.7%0.07%		26.3%0.18%	16.9%0.21%	50.0%<0.01%	25.6%0.32%	9.4%2.33%	50.0%<0.01%	40.2%0.09%		31.6%0.13%	50.0%0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins	Baltimore Colts	Boston Patriots	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts	71.2%0.27%	25.0%<0.01%	44.9%2.09%	32.5%5.70%	76.3%0.04%	43.7%2.35%	26.3%19.18%		54.8%0.97%		44.3%1.02%	62.9%0.18%	66.0%0.16%
Boston Patriots						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Buffalo Bills				0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.0%<0.01%		32.1%0.11%	19.8%0.29%		30.3%0.11%	17.8%0.94%		41.9%0.04%		46.5%0.07%	60.0%<0.01%	57.1%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	56.3%0.10%	66.7%<0.01%	36.0%0.86%	24.5%2.43%	50.0%0.02%	33.2%0.96%	18.9%8.15%	100.0%<0.01%	45.3%0.39%	0.0%<0.01%	30.4%0.46%	57.7%0.08%	56.2%0.06%
Denver Broncos	0.0%<0.01%		21.7%0.06%	12.7%0.12%		17.4%0.05%	9.9%0.45%		34.8%0.02%		25.9%0.03%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Houston Oilers	60.0%<0.01%		7.3%0.04%	11.8%0.10%	0.0%<0.01%	18.9%0.04%	9.8%0.30%		26.7%0.01%		9.5%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	64.6%0.13%		41.5%1.02%	27.6%3.01%	57.1%0.02%	36.4%1.24%	21.9%9.86%		50.6%0.50%	100.0%<0.01%	43.0%0.57%	55.3%0.09%	61.2%0.10%
Miami Dolphins	64.0%0.05%		40.7%0.43%	25.2%1.08%	66.7%<0.01%	34.9%0.51%	22.2%3.64%		43.3%0.16%		34.0%0.19%	51.6%0.03%	55.9%0.03%
New York Jets	52.9%0.02%		28.9%0.22%	21.1%0.53%	50.0%<0.01%	23.5%0.20%	14.5%1.86%		38.2%0.07%		27.0%0.10%	61.5%0.01%	41.2%0.02%
Oakland Raiders	65.7%0.21%	0.0%<0.01%	41.1%1.45%	31.8%3.88%	70.8%0.02%	38.1%1.70%	24.8%13.28%	100.0%<0.01%	52.7%0.64%	100.0%<0.01%	43.3%0.71%	57.0%0.13%	73.4%0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	5.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
San Diego Chargers	60.0%0.03%		35.0%0.24%	24.6%0.70%	66.7%<0.01%	37.2%0.22%	21.2%2.32%		47.4%0.11%		34.7%0.12%	55.2%0.03%	66.7%0.02%
Atlanta Falcons														28.8%0.27%			50.0%<0.01%	43.7%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	35.4%0.13%	36.0%0.05%	47.1%0.02%	34.3%0.21%		40.0%0.03%
Chicago Bears														75.0%<0.01%				33.3%<0.01%						100.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys														55.1%2.09%			67.9%0.11%	64.0%0.86%	78.3%0.06%	92.7%0.04%	58.5%1.02%	59.3%0.43%	71.1%0.22%	58.9%1.45%	100.0%<0.01%	65.0%0.24%
Detroit Lions														67.5%5.70%		100.0%<0.01%	80.2%0.29%	75.5%2.43%	87.3%0.12%	88.2%0.10%	72.4%3.01%	74.8%1.08%	78.9%0.53%	68.2%3.88%	100.0%<0.01%	75.4%0.70%
Green Bay Packers														23.7%0.04%				50.0%0.02%		100.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	29.2%0.02%		33.3%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams														56.3%2.35%	100.0%<0.01%		69.7%0.11%	66.8%0.96%	82.6%0.05%	81.1%0.04%	63.6%1.24%	65.1%0.51%	76.5%0.20%	61.9%1.70%	100.0%<0.01%	62.8%0.22%
Minnesota Vikings														73.7%19.18%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	82.2%0.94%	81.1%8.15%	90.1%0.45%	90.2%0.30%	78.1%9.86%	77.8%3.64%	85.5%1.86%	75.2%13.28%	94.4%0.02%	78.8%2.32%
New Orleans Saints																		0.0%<0.01%						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
New York Giants														45.2%0.97%			58.1%0.04%	54.7%0.39%	65.2%0.02%	73.3%0.01%	49.4%0.50%	56.7%0.16%	61.8%0.07%	47.3%0.64%		52.6%0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles																		100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers														55.7%1.02%			53.5%0.07%	69.6%0.46%	74.1%0.03%	90.5%0.02%	57.0%0.57%	66.0%0.19%	73.0%0.10%	56.7%0.71%	100.0%<0.01%	65.3%0.12%
St. Louis Cardinals														37.1%0.18%			40.0%<0.01%	42.3%0.08%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	44.7%0.09%	48.4%0.03%	38.5%0.01%	43.0%0.13%		44.8%0.03%
Washington Redskins														34.0%0.16%			42.9%<0.01%	43.8%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	38.8%0.10%	44.1%0.03%	58.8%0.02%	26.6%0.11%		33.3%0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	81.22%	54.07%	41.48%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	57.89%	21.41%	15.12%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	72.64%	44.63%	13.90%	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	42.11%	16.25%	9.33%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Oakland Raiders	63.14%	29.79%	8.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	18.78%	8.27%	4.90%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	36.85%	14.77%	4.08%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	27.36%	10.80%	2.43%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders
Baltimore Colts		72.6%100.00%
Cincinnati Bengals	27.4%100.00%
Miami Dolphins				36.9%100.00%
Oakland Raiders			63.1%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys		42.1%100.00%
Detroit Lions	57.9%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings				81.2%100.00%
San Francisco 49ers			18.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders
Baltimore Colts			63.3%26.81%	60.4%45.83%
Cincinnati Bengals			51.0%10.04%	32.8%17.31%
Miami Dolphins	36.7%26.81%	49.0%10.04%
Oakland Raiders	39.6%45.83%	67.2%17.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys			34.3%34.13%	56.9%7.98%
Detroit Lions			32.8%47.09%	55.3%10.81%
Minnesota Vikings	65.7%34.13%	67.2%47.09%
San Francisco 49ers	43.1%7.98%	44.7%10.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders
Baltimore Colts	44.5%7.32%	31.6%9.55%	25.1%24.06%	42.5%3.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	35.3%1.77%	23.1%2.26%	16.9%5.86%	31.7%0.90%
Miami Dolphins	41.3%2.42%	27.4%3.11%	22.0%8.01%	38.1%1.23%
Oakland Raiders	43.0%4.75%	29.3%6.48%	23.5%16.13%	42.9%2.43%
Dallas Cowboys					55.5%7.32%	64.7%1.77%	58.7%2.42%	57.0%4.75%
Detroit Lions					68.4%9.55%	76.9%2.26%	72.6%3.11%	70.7%6.48%
Minnesota Vikings					74.9%24.06%	83.1%5.86%	78.0%8.01%	76.5%16.13%
San Francisco 49ers					57.5%3.70%	68.3%0.90%	61.9%1.23%	57.1%2.43%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 41.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

81.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

58.54%

Win Prob

67.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

43.42%

Win Prob

74.85%

Detroit Lions 15.12% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

72.08%

Win Prob

32.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

43.20%

Win Prob

68.36%

Baltimore Colts 13.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

62.01%

Win Prob

60.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.52%

Win Prob

25.15%

Dallas Cowboys 9.33% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

72.06%

Win Prob

34.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

43.51%

Win Prob

55.47%

Oakland Raiders 8.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

60.95%

Win Prob

39.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.19%

Win Prob

23.48%

San Francisco 49ers 4.90% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

18.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

58.44%

Win Prob

44.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

43.53%

Win Prob

57.55%

Miami Dolphins 4.08% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

66.68%

Win Prob

36.75%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.15%

Win Prob

21.97%

Cincinnati Bengals 2.43% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

52.57%

Win Prob

32.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.91%

Win Prob

16.92%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1970-09-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-3	1597.75	1396.80	66.91%	28.18%	+18.30	1-0
1970-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1616.05	1488.92	57.25%	37.24%	-18.99	1-1
1970-10-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1597.06	1490.10	69.03%	26.23%	+5.14	2-1
1970-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-13	1602.20	1548.09	46.89%	47.39%	-32.72	2-2
1970-10-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-24	1569.48	1497.04	49.53%	44.77%	-35.76	2-3
1970-10-25	New Orleans Saints	W 32-14	1533.72	1375.09	74.76%	21.09%	+17.45	3-3
1970-11-01	Chicago Bears	L 14-23	1551.17	1333.54	80.37%	16.18%	-45.33	3-4
1970-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 10-10	1505.84	1600.69	27.55%	67.59%	+1.86	3-4
1970-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 13-13	1507.70	1280.99	69.98%	25.38%	-2.08	3-4
1970-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1505.62	1550.78	48.68%	45.61%	-29.72	3-5
1970-11-30	Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1475.90	1507.51	50.62%	43.69%	-35.18	3-6
1970-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1440.72	1544.81	26.54%	68.69%	-10.39	3-7
1970-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-16	1430.33	1344.71	66.46%	28.59%	+18.57	4-7
1970-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-37	1448.90	1828.00	12.79%	84.33%	-13.44	4-8
1970-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-14	1577.26	1528.70	46.10%	48.19%	+13.17	1-0
1970-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-44	1590.43	1623.91	50.36%	43.95%	-43.41	1-1
1970-10-04	@ Boston Patriots	W 14-6	1547.02	1388.48	61.50%	33.21%	+18.39	2-1
1970-10-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-20	1565.41	1517.79	45.96%	48.33%	+18.67	3-1
1970-10-18	@ New York Jets	W 29-22	1584.08	1529.08	47.02%	47.26%	+24.19	4-1
1970-10-25	Boston Patriots	W 27-3	1608.27	1327.22	85.29%	11.97%	+11.23	5-1
1970-11-01	Miami Dolphins	W 35-0	1619.50	1499.40	70.56%	24.85%	+28.75	6-1
1970-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1648.25	1495.52	60.73%	33.93%	+11.50	7-1
1970-11-15	Buffalo Bills	T 17-17	1659.75	1315.81	89.13%	8.75%	-3.73	7-1
1970-11-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-34	1656.02	1455.05	66.91%	28.18%	-52.45	7-2
1970-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 21-20	1603.57	1378.16	81.03%	15.61%	+3.01	8-2
1970-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-10	1606.58	1300.60	86.93%	10.59%	+8.81	9-2
1970-12-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-14	1615.39	1257.60	82.72%	14.16%	+6.68	10-2
1970-12-19	New York Jets	W 35-20	1622.07	1505.12	70.20%	25.18%	+19.08	11-2
1970-09-20	Miami Dolphins	W 27-14	1374.20	1437.67	46.05%	48.24%	+33.60	1-0
1970-09-27	New York Jets	L 21-31	1407.80	1582.78	31.20%	63.64%	-19.32	1-1
1970-10-04	Baltimore Colts	L 6-14	1388.48	1547.02	33.21%	61.50%	-18.38	1-2
1970-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-23	1370.10	1621.79	13.79%	83.15%	-9.57	1-3
1970-10-18	New York Giants	L 0-16	1360.53	1446.66	42.84%	51.49%	-33.31	1-4
1970-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-27	1327.22	1608.27	11.97%	85.29%	-11.23	1-5
1970-11-01	Buffalo Bills	L 10-45	1315.99	1316.95	54.97%	39.44%	-62.41	1-6
1970-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-31	1253.58	1476.06	15.82%	80.78%	-17.03	1-7
1970-11-15	San Diego Chargers	L 14-16	1236.55	1565.11	16.24%	80.30%	-4.44	1-8
1970-11-22	@ New York Jets	L 3-17	1232.11	1468.20	14.85%	81.92%	-10.72	1-9
1970-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1221.39	1290.13	30.55%	64.34%	+24.52	2-9
1970-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-37	1245.91	1542.68	11.08%	86.34%	-8.74	2-10
1970-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-35	1237.17	1824.25	4.39%	94.45%	-3.75	2-11
1970-12-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-45	1233.42	1512.34	12.10%	85.14%	-14.29	2-12
1970-09-20	Denver Broncos	L 10-25	1380.77	1428.90	48.25%	46.04%	-36.11	0-1
1970-09-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-19	1344.66	1555.55	27.07%	68.11%	-23.10	0-2
1970-10-04	New York Jets	W 34-31	1321.56	1602.10	20.16%	75.80%	+24.79	1-2
1970-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1346.35	1243.03	53.93%	40.45%	-37.35	1-3
1970-10-18	Miami Dolphins	L 14-33	1309.00	1528.61	26.13%	69.15%	-22.29	1-4
1970-10-25	@ New York Jets	W 10-6	1286.71	1504.89	16.14%	80.41%	+30.24	2-4
1970-11-01	@ Boston Patriots	W 45-10	1316.95	1315.99	39.44%	54.97%	+62.41	3-4
1970-11-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-43	1379.36	1329.98	61.83%	32.90%	-63.55	3-5
1970-11-15	@ Baltimore Colts	T 17-17	1315.81	1659.75	8.75%	89.13%	+3.73	3-5
1970-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-31	1319.54	1348.76	35.44%	59.14%	-29.41	3-6
1970-11-29	Boston Patriots	L 10-14	1290.13	1221.39	64.34%	30.55%	-24.51	3-7
1970-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 6-20	1265.62	1560.05	11.21%	86.19%	-8.02	3-8
1970-12-13	Baltimore Colts	L 14-20	1257.60	1615.39	14.16%	82.72%	-6.68	3-9
1970-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-45	1250.92	1568.39	10.00%	87.63%	-11.74	3-10
1970-09-19	@ New York Giants	W 24-16	1330.41	1518.21	18.54%	77.66%	+41.41	1-0
1970-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-16	1371.82	1338.96	59.63%	34.98%	+13.68	2-0
1970-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-28	1385.50	1723.86	9.00%	88.83%	-6.40	2-1
1970-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-24	1379.10	1782.59	11.36%	86.02%	-10.64	2-2
1970-10-18	San Diego Chargers	L 7-20	1368.46	1471.39	40.51%	53.87%	-28.45	2-3
1970-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 10-16	1340.01	1704.49	13.72%	83.23%	-6.47	2-4
1970-11-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-14	1333.54	1551.17	16.18%	80.37%	+45.33	3-4
1970-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-37	1378.87	1578.03	28.38%	66.69%	-25.47	3-5
1970-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-20	1353.40	1484.02	23.78%	71.75%	-4.64	3-6
1970-11-22	Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1348.76	1319.54	59.14%	35.44%	+29.40	4-6
1970-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-21	1378.16	1603.57	15.61%	81.03%	-3.01	4-7
1970-12-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-16	1375.15	1822.60	5.10%	93.58%	-1.66	4-8
1970-12-13	Green Bay Packers	W 35-17	1373.49	1487.23	39.03%	55.39%	+45.09	5-8
1970-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-3	1418.58	1263.47	61.04%	33.64%	+30.16	6-8
1970-09-20	Oakland Raiders	W 31-21	1392.01	1686.14	18.98%	77.14%	+46.01	1-0
1970-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-38	1438.02	1709.64	12.53%	84.63%	-14.23	1-1
1970-10-04	Houston Oilers	L 13-20	1423.79	1494.71	44.99%	49.31%	-23.08	1-2
1970-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-30	1400.71	1616.88	16.29%	80.24%	-5.46	1-3
1970-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-27	1395.25	1631.36	24.40%	71.05%	-13.49	1-4
1970-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-20	1381.76	1505.09	24.52%	70.93%	-21.44	1-5
1970-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1360.32	1303.43	47.29%	46.99%	-30.34	1-6
1970-11-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 43-14	1329.98	1379.36	32.90%	61.83%	+63.55	2-6
1970-11-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-10	1393.53	1568.21	31.23%	63.61%	+24.24	3-6
1970-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-7	1417.77	1337.10	65.85%	29.16%	+29.67	4-6
1970-11-29	New Orleans Saints	W 26-6	1447.44	1303.35	73.22%	22.45%	+19.61	5-6
1970-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1467.05	1540.13	30.04%	64.89%	+21.40	6-6
1970-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-20	1488.45	1372.41	55.71%	38.72%	+23.89	7-6
1970-12-20	Boston Patriots	W 45-7	1512.34	1233.42	85.14%	12.10%	+14.29	8-6
1970-09-21	New York Jets	W 31-21	1609.18	1606.83	55.43%	38.99%	+24.06	1-0
1970-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-34	1633.24	1469.55	62.18%	32.57%	-20.55	1-1
1970-10-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 15-7	1612.69	1247.22	90.23%	7.84%	+4.19	2-1
1970-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1616.88	1400.71	80.24%	16.29%	+5.46	3-1
1970-10-18	Detroit Lions	L 24-41	1622.34	1665.52	48.97%	45.33%	-38.97	3-2
1970-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-0	1583.37	1550.90	43.81%	50.50%	+51.50	4-2
1970-11-01	San Diego Chargers	L 10-27	1634.87	1498.72	72.36%	23.23%	-56.50	4-3
1970-11-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1578.37	1652.20	29.95%	64.99%	-10.16	4-4
1970-11-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-14	1568.21	1393.53	63.61%	31.23%	-24.24	4-5
1970-11-22	Houston Oilers	W 28-14	1543.97	1379.17	75.39%	20.53%	+14.96	5-5
1970-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-28	1558.93	1307.42	72.76%	22.87%	-60.04	5-6
1970-12-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-10	1498.89	1398.83	53.47%	40.90%	+26.42	6-6
1970-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 2-6	1525.31	1615.71	42.24%	52.10%	-16.43	6-7
1970-12-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-13	1508.88	1442.48	48.66%	45.63%	+33.08	7-7
1970-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1557.69	1356.38	66.95%	28.14%	+17.42	1-0
1970-09-27	New York Giants	W 28-10	1575.11	1476.80	68.00%	27.17%	+22.57	2-0
1970-10-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-20	1597.68	1347.18	72.65%	22.97%	-49.59	2-1
1970-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-0	1548.09	1602.20	47.39%	46.89%	+32.72	3-1
1970-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-54	1580.81	1793.23	16.57%	79.91%	-20.55	3-2
1970-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-16	1560.26	1644.85	28.71%	66.33%	+41.85	4-2
1970-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1602.11	1249.14	89.61%	8.36%	+3.17	5-2
1970-11-08	@ New York Giants	L 20-23	1605.28	1542.30	48.17%	46.12%	-16.12	5-3
1970-11-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-38	1589.16	1493.09	67.73%	27.42%	-79.35	5-4
1970-11-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-21	1509.81	1545.32	34.64%	59.99%	+56.16	6-4
1970-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1565.97	1485.05	65.88%	29.13%	+20.57	7-4
1970-12-06	Washington Redskins	W 34-0	1586.54	1473.33	69.77%	25.57%	+29.17	8-4
1970-12-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 6-2	1615.71	1525.31	52.10%	42.24%	+16.43	9-4
1970-12-20	Houston Oilers	W 52-10	1632.14	1348.52	85.47%	11.82%	+14.67	10-4
1970-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-10	1428.90	1380.77	46.04%	48.25%	+36.11	1-0
1970-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-13	1465.01	1252.79	79.89%	16.59%	+5.56	2-0
1970-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-13	1470.57	1667.32	28.65%	66.39%	+45.53	3-0
1970-10-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-35	1516.10	1606.11	28.09%	67.00%	-19.06	3-1
1970-10-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1497.04	1569.48	44.77%	49.53%	+35.76	4-1
1970-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-19	1532.80	1532.90	39.30%	55.12%	-17.14	4-2
1970-11-01	Washington Redskins	L 3-19	1515.66	1526.53	53.57%	40.80%	-41.18	4-3
1970-11-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1474.48	1555.22	29.15%	65.85%	-9.88	4-4
1970-11-15	Oakland Raiders	L 19-24	1464.60	1662.36	28.54%	66.51%	-12.50	4-5
1970-11-22	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-6	1452.10	1341.87	54.90%	39.51%	+38.52	5-5
1970-11-29	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-31	1490.62	1364.21	57.15%	37.34%	-34.62	5-6
1970-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-16	1456.00	1653.10	17.77%	78.53%	-13.80	5-7
1970-12-13	San Diego Chargers	T 17-17	1442.20	1518.73	44.19%	50.12%	+0.28	5-7
1970-12-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-27	1442.48	1508.88	45.63%	48.66%	-33.09	5-8
1970-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 40-0	1663.99	1534.56	57.57%	36.94%	+45.65	1-0
1970-09-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-3	1709.64	1438.02	84.63%	12.53%	+14.22	2-0
1970-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 28-14	1723.86	1385.50	88.83%	9.00%	+6.40	3-0
1970-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-31	1730.26	1460.10	74.74%	21.10%	-64.74	3-1
1970-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-24	1665.52	1622.34	45.33%	48.97%	+38.97	4-1
1970-10-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-10	1704.49	1340.01	83.23%	13.72%	+6.47	5-1
1970-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-30	1710.96	1823.50	39.20%	55.23%	-27.56	5-2
1970-11-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-19	1683.40	1339.62	81.59%	15.13%	-21.67	5-3
1970-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-24	1661.73	1862.69	17.46%	78.88%	-6.77	5-4
1970-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-7	1654.96	1620.50	59.84%	34.77%	+31.17	6-4
1970-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 28-14	1686.13	1683.81	55.43%	39.00%	+28.46	7-4
1970-12-06	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-3	1714.59	1581.34	72.04%	23.51%	+16.57	8-4
1970-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-23	1731.16	1632.17	53.32%	41.05%	+17.87	9-4
1970-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 20-0	1749.03	1442.15	86.99%	10.54%	+9.00	10-4
1970-09-20	Detroit Lions	L 0-40	1534.56	1663.99	36.94%	57.57%	-45.64	0-1
1970-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1488.92	1616.05	37.24%	57.25%	+19.00	1-1
1970-10-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-10	1507.92	1807.96	18.49%	77.71%	+25.37	2-1
1970-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 22-20	1533.29	1484.55	46.12%	48.17%	+13.16	3-1
1970-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-31	1546.45	1560.05	53.19%	41.17%	-32.33	3-2
1970-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-17	1514.12	1258.53	83.45%	13.54%	+9.39	4-2
1970-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-26	1523.51	1550.04	35.79%	58.77%	-27.99	4-3
1970-11-09	Baltimore Colts	L 10-13	1495.52	1648.25	33.93%	60.73%	-11.50	4-4
1970-11-15	Chicago Bears	W 20-19	1484.02	1353.40	71.75%	23.78%	+4.64	5-4
1970-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-10	1488.66	1869.47	7.24%	90.96%	-3.61	5-5
1970-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-16	1485.05	1565.97	29.13%	65.88%	-20.57	5-6
1970-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-12	1464.48	1367.46	53.04%	41.32%	+22.75	6-6
1970-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-35	1487.23	1373.49	55.39%	39.03%	-45.08	6-7
1970-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1442.15	1749.03	10.54%	86.99%	-8.99	6-8
1970-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-7	1522.63	1268.05	73.10%	22.57%	+15.26	1-0
1970-09-27	Miami Dolphins	L 10-20	1537.89	1404.07	72.10%	23.46%	-43.18	1-1
1970-10-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-13	1494.71	1423.79	49.31%	44.99%	+23.08	2-1
1970-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 20-24	1517.79	1565.41	48.33%	45.96%	-18.67	2-2
1970-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-7	1499.12	1280.38	80.46%	16.10%	-30.25	2-3
1970-10-25	@ San Diego Chargers	T 31-31	1468.87	1499.84	35.22%	59.37%	+1.11	2-3
1970-11-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-44	1469.98	1415.87	46.90%	47.39%	-60.19	2-4
1970-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-24	1409.79	1602.92	18.10%	78.16%	-13.61	2-5
1970-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-30	1396.18	1603.50	27.47%	67.68%	-17.01	2-6
1970-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-28	1379.17	1543.97	20.53%	75.39%	-14.96	2-7
1970-11-29	Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1364.21	1490.62	37.34%	57.15%	+34.62	3-7
1970-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-21	1398.83	1498.89	40.90%	53.47%	-26.42	3-8
1970-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-30	1372.41	1488.45	38.72%	55.71%	-23.89	3-9
1970-12-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-52	1348.52	1632.14	11.82%	85.47%	-14.67	3-10
1970-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1642.15	1784.20	22.65%	73.00%	-18.24	0-1
1970-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 44-24	1623.91	1590.43	43.95%	50.36%	+43.41	1-1
1970-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-26	1667.32	1470.57	66.39%	28.65%	-45.53	1-2
1970-10-11	Boston Patriots	W 23-10	1621.79	1370.10	83.15%	13.79%	+9.57	2-2
1970-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-19	1631.36	1395.25	71.05%	24.40%	+13.49	3-2
1970-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-27	1644.85	1560.26	66.33%	28.71%	-41.85	3-3
1970-11-01	Oakland Raiders	T 17-17	1603.00	1652.11	48.11%	46.18%	-0.08	3-3
1970-11-08	Houston Oilers	W 24-9	1602.92	1409.79	78.16%	18.10%	+13.60	4-3
1970-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1616.52	1354.69	73.87%	21.88%	+17.60	5-3
1970-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	T 6-6	1634.12	1572.43	63.44%	31.39%	-1.48	5-3
1970-11-29	San Diego Chargers	W 26-14	1632.64	1560.60	64.76%	30.16%	+20.46	6-3
1970-12-06	Denver Broncos	W 16-0	1653.10	1456.00	78.53%	17.77%	+13.79	7-3
1970-12-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-20	1666.89	1662.65	39.89%	54.51%	-29.09	7-4
1970-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-31	1637.80	1518.46	56.17%	38.28%	-45.69	7-5
1970-09-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-13	1541.16	1324.30	80.30%	16.24%	+14.39	1-0
1970-09-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-0	1555.55	1344.66	68.11%	27.07%	+23.11	2-0
1970-10-04	San Diego Chargers	W 37-10	1578.66	1516.42	63.51%	31.33%	+31.87	3-0
1970-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1610.53	1484.96	71.18%	24.29%	-50.48	3-1
1970-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-21	1560.05	1546.45	41.17%	53.19%	+32.33	4-1
1970-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-13	1592.38	1813.78	15.90%	80.69%	-9.72	4-2
1970-11-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-17	1582.66	1357.65	69.78%	25.56%	+18.03	5-2
1970-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	T 10-10	1600.69	1505.84	67.59%	27.55%	-1.87	5-2
1970-11-15	New York Jets	L 20-31	1598.82	1420.16	76.78%	19.31%	-48.04	5-3
1970-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-7	1550.78	1505.62	45.61%	48.68%	+29.73	6-3
1970-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-13	1580.51	1589.33	38.12%	56.34%	+44.52	7-3
1970-12-06	New Orleans Saints	W 34-16	1625.03	1283.75	88.99%	8.87%	+7.14	8-3
1970-12-14	Detroit Lions	L 23-28	1632.17	1731.16	41.05%	53.32%	-17.87	8-4
1970-12-20	@ New York Giants	W 31-3	1614.30	1611.32	39.72%	54.69%	+55.54	9-4
1970-09-20	@ Boston Patriots	L 14-27	1437.67	1374.20	48.24%	46.05%	-33.60	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-10	1404.07	1537.89	23.46%	72.10%	+43.18	1-1
1970-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 20-13	1447.25	1639.24	29.20%	65.80%	+33.13	2-1
1970-10-10	@ New York Jets	W 20-6	1480.38	1577.31	27.32%	67.84%	+48.23	3-1
1970-10-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 33-14	1528.61	1309.00	69.15%	26.13%	+22.29	4-1
1970-10-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-28	1550.90	1583.37	50.50%	43.81%	-51.50	4-2
1970-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-35	1499.40	1619.50	24.85%	70.56%	-28.75	4-3
1970-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1470.65	1245.98	69.74%	25.59%	-35.01	4-4
1970-11-15	New Orleans Saints	W 21-10	1435.64	1361.29	65.05%	29.89%	+19.41	5-4
1970-11-22	Baltimore Colts	W 34-17	1455.05	1656.02	28.18%	66.91%	+52.46	6-4
1970-11-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-7	1507.51	1475.90	43.69%	50.62%	+35.17	7-4
1970-12-06	Boston Patriots	W 37-20	1542.68	1245.91	86.34%	11.08%	+8.73	8-4
1970-12-13	New York Jets	W 16-10	1551.41	1522.09	59.15%	35.43%	+16.98	9-4
1970-12-20	Buffalo Bills	W 45-7	1568.39	1250.92	87.63%	10.00%	+11.74	10-4
1970-09-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-10	1784.20	1642.15	73.00%	22.65%	+18.23	1-0
1970-09-27	New Orleans Saints	W 26-0	1802.43	1378.50	92.74%	5.78%	+5.53	2-0
1970-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-13	1807.96	1507.92	77.71%	18.49%	-25.37	2-1
1970-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-0	1782.59	1379.10	86.02%	11.36%	+10.64	3-1
1970-10-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 54-13	1793.23	1580.81	79.91%	16.57%	+20.55	4-1
1970-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-3	1813.78	1592.38	80.69%	15.90%	+9.72	5-1
1970-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-17	1823.50	1710.96	55.23%	39.20%	+27.56	6-1
1970-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-10	1851.06	1567.71	76.09%	19.92%	+11.63	7-1
1970-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1862.69	1661.73	78.88%	17.46%	+6.78	8-1
1970-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1869.47	1488.66	90.96%	7.24%	+3.61	9-1
1970-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 10-20	1873.08	1478.92	85.39%	11.89%	-50.48	9-2
1970-12-05	Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1822.60	1375.15	93.58%	5.10%	+1.65	10-2
1970-12-13	@ Boston Patriots	W 35-14	1824.25	1237.17	94.45%	4.39%	+3.75	11-2
1970-12-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-7	1828.00	1448.90	84.33%	12.79%	+13.45	12-2
1970-09-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-14	1396.80	1597.75	28.18%	66.91%	-18.30	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-26	1378.50	1802.43	5.78%	92.74%	-5.52	0-2
1970-10-04	New York Giants	W 14-10	1372.98	1454.23	43.52%	50.79%	+19.57	1-2
1970-10-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1392.55	1396.78	38.74%	55.70%	-20.00	1-3
1970-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1372.55	1535.45	20.70%	75.20%	+2.54	1-3
1970-10-25	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-32	1375.09	1533.72	21.09%	74.76%	-17.44	1-4
1970-11-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-30	1357.65	1582.66	25.56%	69.78%	-18.03	1-5
1970-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 19-17	1339.62	1683.40	15.13%	81.59%	+21.67	2-5
1970-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-21	1361.29	1435.64	29.89%	65.05%	-19.42	2-6
1970-11-22	Denver Broncos	L 6-31	1341.87	1452.10	39.51%	54.90%	-38.52	2-7
1970-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-26	1303.35	1447.44	22.45%	73.22%	-19.60	2-8
1970-12-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-34	1283.75	1625.03	8.87%	88.99%	-7.14	2-9
1970-12-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-38	1276.61	1555.20	20.34%	75.61%	-13.14	2-10
1970-12-20	Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1263.47	1418.58	33.64%	61.04%	-30.17	2-11
1970-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 16-24	1518.21	1330.41	77.66%	18.54%	-41.41	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-28	1476.80	1575.11	27.17%	68.00%	-22.57	0-2
1970-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-14	1454.23	1372.98	50.79%	43.52%	-19.57	0-3
1970-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-23	1434.66	1298.39	72.37%	23.22%	+12.00	1-3
1970-10-18	@ Boston Patriots	W 16-0	1446.66	1360.53	51.49%	42.84%	+33.31	2-3
1970-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1479.97	1444.63	59.96%	34.66%	+28.76	3-3
1970-11-01	@ New York Jets	W 22-10	1508.73	1474.65	44.04%	50.27%	+33.57	4-3
1970-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-20	1542.30	1605.28	46.12%	48.17%	+16.12	5-3
1970-11-15	Washington Redskins	W 35-33	1558.42	1556.08	55.43%	38.99%	+10.76	6-3
1970-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1569.18	1283.07	76.36%	19.67%	-24.96	6-4
1970-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1544.22	1489.16	47.03%	47.26%	+15.83	7-4
1970-12-06	Buffalo Bills	W 20-6	1560.05	1265.62	86.19%	11.21%	+8.02	8-4
1970-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1568.07	1564.78	39.76%	54.64%	+43.25	9-4
1970-12-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-31	1611.32	1614.30	54.69%	39.72%	-55.55	9-5
1970-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-31	1606.83	1609.18	38.99%	55.43%	-24.05	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Boston Patriots	W 31-21	1582.78	1407.80	63.64%	31.20%	+19.32	1-1
1970-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1602.10	1321.56	75.80%	20.16%	-24.79	1-2
1970-10-10	Miami Dolphins	L 6-20	1577.31	1480.38	67.84%	27.32%	-48.23	1-3
1970-10-18	Baltimore Colts	L 22-29	1529.08	1584.08	47.26%	47.02%	-24.19	1-4
1970-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 6-10	1504.89	1286.71	80.41%	16.14%	-30.24	1-5
1970-11-01	New York Giants	L 10-22	1474.65	1508.73	50.27%	44.04%	-33.57	1-6
1970-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1441.08	1333.77	54.49%	39.91%	-20.92	1-7
1970-11-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-20	1420.16	1598.82	19.31%	76.78%	+48.04	2-7
1970-11-22	Boston Patriots	W 17-3	1468.20	1232.11	81.92%	14.85%	+10.72	3-7
1970-11-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-10	1478.92	1873.08	11.89%	85.39%	+50.48	4-7
1970-12-06	Oakland Raiders	L 13-14	1529.40	1655.34	37.40%	57.09%	-7.31	4-8
1970-12-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-16	1522.09	1551.41	35.43%	59.15%	-16.97	4-9
1970-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1505.12	1622.07	25.18%	70.20%	-19.07	4-10
1970-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-31	1686.14	1392.01	77.14%	18.98%	-46.01	0-1
1970-09-27	@ San Diego Chargers	T 27-27	1640.13	1515.53	56.90%	37.58%	-0.89	0-1
1970-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1639.24	1447.25	65.80%	29.20%	-33.13	0-2
1970-10-11	Denver Broncos	W 35-23	1606.11	1516.10	67.00%	28.09%	+19.06	1-2
1970-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 34-20	1625.17	1524.84	68.25%	26.95%	+19.74	2-2
1970-10-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-14	1644.91	1310.63	88.60%	9.19%	+7.20	3-2
1970-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	T 17-17	1652.11	1603.00	46.18%	48.11%	+0.09	3-2
1970-11-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-20	1652.20	1578.37	64.99%	29.95%	+10.16	4-2
1970-11-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-19	1662.36	1464.60	66.51%	28.54%	+12.50	5-2
1970-11-22	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1674.86	1569.55	68.84%	26.41%	+8.95	6-2
1970-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-28	1683.81	1686.13	39.00%	55.43%	-28.47	6-3
1970-12-06	@ New York Jets	W 14-13	1655.34	1529.40	57.09%	37.40%	+7.31	7-3
1970-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-6	1662.65	1666.89	54.51%	39.89%	+29.09	8-3
1970-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-38	1691.74	1568.34	70.94%	24.51%	-74.87	8-4
1970-09-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-17	1356.38	1557.69	28.14%	66.95%	-17.42	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-20	1338.96	1371.82	34.98%	59.63%	-13.68	0-2
1970-10-04	Washington Redskins	L 21-33	1325.28	1433.21	39.82%	54.58%	-26.89	0-3
1970-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 23-30	1298.39	1434.66	23.22%	72.37%	-12.00	0-4
1970-10-18	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-35	1286.39	1416.77	36.81%	57.70%	-27.86	0-5
1970-10-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-30	1258.53	1514.12	13.54%	83.45%	-9.39	0-6
1970-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-21	1249.14	1602.11	8.36%	89.61%	-3.16	0-7
1970-11-08	Miami Dolphins	W 24-17	1245.98	1470.65	25.59%	69.74%	+35.01	1-7
1970-11-15	Atlanta Falcons	T 13-13	1280.99	1507.70	25.38%	69.98%	+2.08	1-7
1970-11-23	New York Giants	W 23-20	1283.07	1569.18	19.67%	76.36%	+24.96	2-7
1970-11-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-23	1308.03	1573.92	12.88%	84.21%	-7.43	2-8
1970-12-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-29	1300.60	1606.58	10.59%	86.93%	-8.80	2-9
1970-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-24	1291.80	1444.16	21.67%	74.10%	-17.94	2-10
1970-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-20	1273.86	1326.14	47.66%	46.63%	+28.55	3-10
1970-09-20	Houston Oilers	L 7-19	1268.05	1522.63	22.57%	73.10%	-15.26	0-1
1970-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1252.79	1465.01	16.59%	79.89%	-5.57	0-2
1970-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-15	1247.22	1612.69	7.84%	90.23%	-4.19	0-3
1970-10-11	Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1243.03	1346.35	40.45%	53.93%	+37.35	1-3
1970-10-18	@ Houston Oilers	W 7-3	1280.38	1499.12	16.10%	80.46%	+30.25	2-3
1970-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-31	1310.63	1644.91	9.19%	88.60%	-7.20	2-4
1970-11-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-10	1303.43	1360.32	46.99%	47.29%	+30.34	3-4
1970-11-08	New York Jets	W 21-17	1333.77	1441.08	39.91%	54.49%	+20.92	4-4
1970-11-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-31	1354.69	1616.52	21.88%	73.87%	-17.59	4-5
1970-11-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-34	1337.10	1417.77	29.16%	65.85%	-29.68	4-6
1970-11-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-9	1307.42	1558.93	22.87%	72.76%	+60.04	5-6
1970-12-06	Green Bay Packers	L 12-20	1367.46	1464.48	41.32%	53.04%	-22.75	5-7
1970-12-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-27	1344.71	1430.33	28.59%	66.46%	-18.57	5-8
1970-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-30	1326.14	1273.86	46.63%	47.66%	-28.54	5-9
1970-09-20	Baltimore Colts	L 14-16	1528.70	1577.26	48.19%	46.10%	-13.17	0-1
1970-09-27	Oakland Raiders	T 27-27	1515.53	1640.13	37.58%	56.90%	+0.89	0-1
1970-10-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-37	1516.42	1578.66	31.33%	63.51%	-31.87	0-2
1970-10-12	Green Bay Packers	L 20-22	1484.55	1533.29	48.17%	46.12%	-13.16	0-3
1970-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-7	1471.39	1368.46	53.87%	40.51%	+28.45	1-3
1970-10-25	Houston Oilers	T 31-31	1499.84	1468.87	59.37%	35.22%	-1.12	1-3
1970-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-10	1498.72	1634.87	23.23%	72.36%	+56.50	2-3
1970-11-08	Denver Broncos	W 24-21	1555.22	1474.48	65.85%	29.15%	+9.89	3-3
1970-11-15	@ Boston Patriots	W 16-14	1565.11	1236.55	80.30%	16.24%	+4.44	4-3
1970-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1569.55	1674.86	26.41%	68.84%	-8.95	4-4
1970-11-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-26	1560.60	1632.64	30.16%	64.76%	-20.47	4-5
1970-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1540.13	1467.05	64.89%	30.04%	-21.40	4-6
1970-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	T 17-17	1518.73	1442.20	50.12%	44.19%	-0.27	4-6
1970-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-13	1518.46	1637.80	38.28%	56.17%	+45.69	5-6
1970-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 26-17	1442.21	1497.83	47.18%	47.11%	+27.34	1-0
1970-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-31	1469.55	1633.24	32.57%	62.18%	+20.55	2-0
1970-10-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-21	1490.10	1597.06	26.23%	69.03%	-5.14	2-1
1970-10-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-6	1484.96	1610.53	24.29%	71.18%	+50.49	3-1
1970-10-18	New Orleans Saints	T 20-20	1535.45	1372.55	75.20%	20.70%	-2.55	3-1
1970-10-25	Denver Broncos	W 19-14	1532.90	1532.80	55.12%	39.30%	+17.14	4-1
1970-11-01	Green Bay Packers	W 26-10	1550.04	1523.51	58.77%	35.79%	+27.99	5-1
1970-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 37-16	1578.03	1378.87	66.69%	28.38%	+25.47	6-1
1970-11-15	@ Houston Oilers	W 30-20	1603.50	1396.18	67.68%	27.47%	+17.00	7-1
1970-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-28	1620.50	1654.96	34.77%	59.84%	-31.17	7-2
1970-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-30	1589.33	1580.51	56.34%	38.12%	-44.52	7-3
1970-12-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1544.81	1440.72	68.69%	26.54%	+10.39	8-3
1970-12-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 38-27	1555.20	1276.61	75.61%	20.34%	+13.14	9-3
1970-12-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-7	1568.34	1691.74	24.51%	70.94%	+74.87	10-3
1970-09-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-34	1324.30	1541.16	16.24%	80.30%	-14.40	0-1
1970-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1309.90	1470.49	32.95%	61.77%	+37.28	1-1
1970-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1347.18	1597.68	22.97%	72.65%	+49.60	2-1
1970-10-11	New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1396.78	1392.55	55.70%	38.74%	+19.99	3-1
1970-10-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-20	1416.77	1286.39	57.70%	36.81%	+27.86	4-1
1970-10-25	@ New York Giants	L 17-35	1444.63	1479.97	34.66%	59.96%	-28.76	4-2
1970-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 44-0	1415.87	1469.98	47.39%	46.90%	+60.19	5-2
1970-11-08	Boston Patriots	W 31-0	1476.06	1253.58	80.78%	15.82%	+17.03	6-2
1970-11-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-0	1493.09	1589.16	27.42%	67.73%	+79.34	7-2
1970-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	T 6-6	1572.43	1634.12	31.39%	63.44%	+1.49	7-2
1970-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-14	1573.92	1308.03	84.21%	12.88%	+7.42	8-2
1970-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-16	1581.34	1714.59	23.51%	72.04%	-16.56	8-3
1970-12-13	New York Giants	L 17-34	1564.78	1568.07	54.64%	39.76%	-43.25	8-4
1970-12-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 27-28	1521.53	1462.09	47.66%	46.63%	-9.22	8-5
1970-09-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-26	1497.83	1442.21	47.11%	47.18%	-27.34	0-1
1970-09-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-27	1470.49	1309.90	61.77%	32.95%	-37.28	0-2
1970-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-21	1433.21	1325.28	54.58%	39.82%	+26.89	1-2
1970-10-11	Detroit Lions	W 31-10	1460.10	1730.26	21.10%	74.74%	+64.74	2-2
1970-10-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-34	1524.84	1625.17	26.95%	68.25%	-19.75	2-3
1970-10-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-0	1505.09	1381.76	70.93%	24.52%	+21.44	3-3
1970-11-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-3	1526.53	1515.66	40.80%	53.57%	+41.18	4-3
1970-11-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-19	1567.71	1851.06	19.92%	76.09%	-11.63	4-4
1970-11-15	@ New York Giants	L 33-35	1556.08	1558.42	38.99%	55.43%	-10.76	4-5
1970-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-45	1545.32	1509.81	59.99%	34.64%	-56.16	4-6
1970-11-29	New York Giants	L 24-27	1489.16	1544.22	47.26%	47.03%	-15.83	4-7
1970-12-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-34	1473.33	1586.54	25.57%	69.77%	-29.17	4-8
1970-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-6	1444.16	1291.80	74.10%	21.67%	+17.93	5-8
1970-12-20	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-27	1462.09	1521.53	46.63%	47.66%	+9.22	6-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1970-12-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-0	1641.15	1526.63	72.72%	27.28%	+20.51	1-0
1971-01-03	Oakland Raiders	W 27-17	1661.66	1634.72	61.69%	38.31%	+22.10	2-0
1971-01-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 16-13	1683.76	1698.30	47.91%	52.09%	+16.45	3-0
1970-12-26	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-17	1526.63	1641.15	27.28%	72.72%	-20.51	0-1
1970-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 5-0	1646.81	1758.03	42.10%	57.90%	+23.62	1-0
1971-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-10	1670.43	1668.87	42.25%	57.75%	+27.87	2-0
1971-01-17	Baltimore Colts	L 13-16	1698.30	1683.76	52.09%	47.91%	-16.46	2-1
1970-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-5	1758.03	1646.81	57.90%	42.10%	-23.62	0-1
1970-12-27	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-21	1580.13	1616.87	36.98%	63.02%	-17.85	0-1
1970-12-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1841.45	1643.21	81.19%	18.81%	-25.65	0-1
1970-12-27	Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1616.87	1580.13	63.02%	36.98%	+17.85	1-0
1971-01-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-27	1634.72	1661.66	38.31%	61.69%	-22.10	1-1
1970-12-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1643.21	1841.45	18.81%	81.19%	+25.66	1-0
1971-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1668.87	1670.43	57.75%	42.25%	-27.87	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1970-11-29	11.89%	@ New York Jets	1478.92	20	Minnesota Vikings	1873.08	10
2	1970-11-08	15.13%	@ New Orleans Saints	1339.62	19	Detroit Lions	1683.40	17
3	1970-10-18	16.10%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1280.38	7	@ Houston Oilers	1499.12	3
4	1970-10-25	16.14%	Buffalo Bills	1286.71	10	@ New York Jets	1504.89	6
5	1970-11-01	16.18%	Chicago Bears	1333.54	23	@ Atlanta Falcons	1551.17	14
6	1970-10-04	18.49%	@ Green Bay Packers	1507.92	13	Minnesota Vikings	1807.96	10
7	1970-09-19	18.54%	Chicago Bears	1330.41	24	@ New York Giants	1518.21	16
8	1970-12-27 *	18.81%	San Francisco 49ers	1643.21	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1841.45	14
9	1970-09-20	18.98%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1392.01	31	Oakland Raiders	1686.14	21
10	1970-11-15	19.31%	New York Jets	1420.16	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1598.82	20
11	1970-11-23	19.67%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1283.07	23	New York Giants	1569.18	20
12	1970-10-04	20.16%	@ Buffalo Bills	1321.56	34	New York Jets	1602.10	31
13	1970-10-11	21.10%	@ Washington Redskins	1460.10	31	Detroit Lions	1730.26	10
14	1970-11-29	22.87%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1307.42	28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1558.93	9
15	1970-10-04	22.97%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1347.18	20	Dallas Cowboys	1597.68	7
16	1970-11-01	23.23%	San Diego Chargers	1498.72	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1634.87	10
17	1970-09-27	23.46%	Miami Dolphins	1404.07	20	@ Houston Oilers	1537.89	10
18	1970-10-11	24.29%	San Francisco 49ers	1484.96	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1610.53	6
19	1970-12-20	24.51%	San Francisco 49ers	1568.34	38	@ Oakland Raiders	1691.74	7
20	1970-11-08	25.59%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1245.98	24	Miami Dolphins	1470.65	17
21	1970-10-10	27.32%	Miami Dolphins	1480.38	20	@ New York Jets	1577.31	6
22	1970-11-16	27.42%	St. Louis Cardinals	1493.09	38	@ Dallas Cowboys	1589.16	0
23	1970-11-22	28.18%	@ Miami Dolphins	1455.05	34	Baltimore Colts	1656.02	17
24	1970-10-04	28.65%	@ Denver Broncos	1470.57	26	Kansas City Chiefs	1667.32	13
25	1970-10-25	28.71%	Dallas Cowboys	1560.26	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1644.85	16

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1970-11-16	79.35	St. Louis Cardinals	38	1493.09	27.42%	@ Dallas Cowboys	0	1589.16	67.73%
2	1970-12-20	74.87	San Francisco 49ers	38	1568.34	24.51%	@ Oakland Raiders	7	1691.74	70.94%
3	1970-10-11	64.74	@ Washington Redskins	31	1460.10	21.10%	Detroit Lions	10	1730.26	74.74%
4	1970-11-08	63.55	Cincinnati Bengals	43	1329.98	32.90%	@ Buffalo Bills	14	1379.36	61.83%
5	1970-11-01	62.41	Buffalo Bills	45	1316.95	39.44%	@ Boston Patriots	10	1315.99	54.97%
6	1970-11-01	60.19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	44	1415.87	47.39%	Houston Oilers	0	1469.98	46.90%
7	1970-11-29	60.04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1307.42	22.87%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	1558.93	72.76%
8	1970-11-01	56.50	San Diego Chargers	27	1498.72	23.23%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1634.87	72.36%
9	1970-11-22	56.16	Dallas Cowboys	45	1509.81	34.64%	@ Washington Redskins	21	1545.32	59.99%
10	1970-12-20	55.55	Los Angeles Rams	31	1614.30	39.72%	@ New York Giants	3	1611.32	54.69%
11	1970-11-22	52.46	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1455.05	28.18%	Baltimore Colts	17	1656.02	66.91%
12	1970-10-25	51.50	Cleveland Browns (1st)	28	1583.37	43.81%	@ Miami Dolphins	0	1550.90	50.50%
13	1970-10-11	50.49	San Francisco 49ers	20	1484.96	24.29%	@ Los Angeles Rams	6	1610.53	71.18%
14	1970-11-29	50.48	@ New York Jets	20	1478.92	11.89%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1873.08	85.39%
15	1970-10-04	49.60	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1347.18	22.97%	Dallas Cowboys	7	1597.68	72.65%
16	1970-10-10	48.23	Miami Dolphins	20	1480.38	27.32%	@ New York Jets	6	1577.31	67.84%
17	1970-11-15	48.04	New York Jets	31	1420.16	19.31%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1598.82	76.78%
18	1970-09-20	46.01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1392.01	18.98%	Oakland Raiders	21	1686.14	77.14%
19	1970-12-20	45.69	@ San Diego Chargers	31	1518.46	38.28%	Kansas City Chiefs	13	1637.80	56.17%
20	1970-09-20	45.65	Detroit Lions	40	1663.99	57.57%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1534.56	36.94%
21	1970-10-04	45.53	@ Denver Broncos	26	1470.57	28.65%	Kansas City Chiefs	13	1667.32	66.39%
22	1970-11-01	45.33	Chicago Bears	23	1333.54	16.18%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1551.17	80.37%
23	1970-12-13	45.09	@ Chicago Bears	35	1373.49	39.03%	Green Bay Packers	17	1487.23	55.39%
24	1970-11-29	44.52	Los Angeles Rams	30	1580.51	38.12%	@ San Francisco 49ers	13	1589.33	56.34%
25	1970-09-28	43.41	Kansas City Chiefs	44	1623.91	43.95%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1590.43	50.36%