1969 NFL Season

112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Minnesota Vikings

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

2.07 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.43 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Bears

2.64 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.64 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys	11	2	1	.821	-	369	223	+146	10.67	+0.83
2	Washington Redskins	7	5	2	.571	3.5	307	319	-12	7.07	+0.93
3	New Orleans Saints	5	9	0	.357	6.5	311	393	-82	5.08	-0.08
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	9	1	.321	7	279	377	-98	5.18	-0.68

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	0	.857	-	379	133	+246	10.60	+1.40
2	Detroit Lions	9	4	1	.679	2.5	259	188	+71	7.43	+2.07
3	Green Bay Packers	8	6	0	.571	4	269	221	+48	8.24	-0.24
4	Chicago Bears	1	13	0	.071	11	210	339	-129	3.64	-2.64

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	3	1	.750	-	351	300	+51	10.38	+0.12
2	New York Giants	6	8	0	.429	4.5	264	298	-34	5.76	+0.24
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	6	314	389	-75	6.35	-1.85
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	13	0	.071	9.5	218	404	-186	3.08	-2.08

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams	11	3	0	.786	-	320	243	+77	10.51	+0.49
2	Baltimore Colts	8	5	1	.607	2.5	279	268	+11	8.90	-0.40
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	8	0	.429	5	276	268	+8	4.49	+1.51
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	8	2	.357	6	277	319	-42	4.61	+0.39

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NFL Championship Game

Minnesota Vikings 27

Cleveland Browns (1st) 7

Jan 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	West	Central	1932	12	10.60	+1.40	93.07%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Detroit Lions	West	Central	1791	9.5	7.43	+2.07	92.55%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	Capitol	1775	11.5	10.67	+0.83	75.30%	3	8	9	11	11	13	14
Atlanta Falcons	West	Coastal	1671	6	4.49	+1.51	92.20%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Baltimore Colts	West	Coastal	1659	8.5	8.90	-0.40	46.51%	1	6	8	9	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	Century	1610	10.5	10.38	+0.12	57.82%	3	8	9	10	11	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	Coastal	1594	11	10.51	+0.49	79.08%	3	8	9	10	11	13	14
Green Bay Packers	West	Central	1564	8	8.24	-0.24	62.71%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
New York Giants	East	Century	1540	6	5.76	+0.24	73.66%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Washington Redskins	East	Capitol	1501	8	7.07	+0.93	84.51%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	Coastal	1395	5	4.61	+0.39	77.89%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New Orleans Saints	East	Capitol	1321	5	5.08	-0.08	67.35%	0	2	4	5	6	7	13
Philadelphia Eagles	East	Capitol	1251	4.5	5.18	-0.68	42.09%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
St. Louis Cardinals	East	Century	1177	4.5	6.35	-1.85	16.27%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Chicago Bears	West	Central	1160	1	3.64	-2.64	9.10%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	Century	1058	1	3.08	-2.08	16.68%	0	1	2	3	4	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Capitol

Team	Cowboys	Saints	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

Capitol vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Giants	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

Central vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	(1st)	Cowboys	Rams	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals	Redskins
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-
Minnesota Vikings	0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-

Within Century

Team	(1st)	Giants	Steelers	Cardinals
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.7 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—

Century vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Saints	Eagles	49ers	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within Coastal

Team	Falcons	Colts	Rams	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—

Coastal vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	(1st)	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.89%	1.79%	3.12%	0.89%	0.45%	0.89%	8.04%
7–13	0.89%	7.14%	4.91%	2.68%	0.89%	0.89%	0.89%	18.30%
14–20	1.79%	4.91%	5.36%	7.14%	2.23%	0.89%	2.23%	24.55%
21–27	3.12%	2.68%	7.14%	10.71%	1.79%	0.45%	0.45%	26.34%
28–34	0.89%	0.89%	2.23%	1.79%	2.68%	1.34%	1.34%	11.16%
35–41	0.45%	0.89%	0.89%	0.45%	1.34%	—	0.45%	4.46%
42+	0.89%	0.89%	2.23%	0.45%	1.34%	0.45%	0.89%	7.14%
Total	8.04%	18.30%	24.55%	26.34%	11.16%	4.46%	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.90	20.90	+0.00
SD	11.56	11.56	16.30
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	52	52	+48
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.71	19.14	+0.57
SD	13.25	10.71	16.90
CV	0.67	0.56	—
Max	48	38	+28
Min	6	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	19.14	+0.79
SD	8.15	11.91	15.17
CV	0.41	0.62	—
Max	41	52	+24
Min	10	6	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	—	14.29%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	24.21	-9.21
SD	12.06	11.62	14.53
CV	0.80	0.48	—
Max	38	48	+31
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.07	21.43	+3.64
SD	9.90	11.67	18.46
CV	0.39	0.54	—
Max	42	51	+32
Min	3	3	-48

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.36	15.93	+10.43
SD	10.89	10.84	16.41
CV	0.41	0.68	—
Max	49	42	+35
Min	10	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.50	13.43	+5.07
SD	7.99	10.17	15.30
CV	0.43	0.76	—
Max	28	28	+28
Min	0	0	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	35.71%	—	21.43%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.21	15.79	+3.43
SD	12.15	10.56	12.20
CV	0.63	0.67	—
Max	45	34	+18
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.86	17.36	+5.50
SD	12.37	7.48	13.78
CV	0.54	0.43	—
Max	41	30	+32
Min	0	6	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	21.43%	50.00%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.07	9.50	+17.57
SD	15.65	6.36	16.62
CV	0.58	0.67	—
Max	52	24	+48
Min	3	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.21	28.07	-5.86
SD	11.81	9.73	11.39
CV	0.53	0.35	—
Max	51	45	+9
Min	10	13	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.86	21.29	-2.43
SD	12.13	8.92	17.39
CV	0.64	0.42	—
Max	49	42	+43
Min	0	6	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	28.57%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	26.93	-7.00
SD	10.38	9.60	13.91
CV	0.52	0.36	—
Max	41	49	+14
Min	3	10	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	—	21.43%	21.43%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.57	28.86	-13.29
SD	9.88	14.22	13.44
CV	0.63	0.49	—
Max	34	52	+3
Min	3	10	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	50.00%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.79	22.79	-3.00
SD	11.07	9.54	9.02
CV	0.56	0.42	—
Max	42	43	+21
Min	7	10	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	21.43%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.43	27.79	-5.36
SD	14.74	13.05	20.43
CV	0.66	0.47	—
Max	47	51	+37
Min	0	10	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	50.00%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.93	22.79	-0.86
SD	7.58	9.78	10.49
CV	0.35	0.43	—
Max	34	41	+16
Min	10	7	-24

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.60	+0.6
Allowed	0.67	-0.4
Differential	0.89	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	9.5	7.43	+2.07
2	Atlanta Falcons	6	4.49	+1.51
3	Minnesota Vikings	12	10.60	+1.40
4	Washington Redskins	8	7.07	+0.93
5	Dallas Cowboys	11.5	10.67	+0.83

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	1	3.64	-2.64
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	3.08	-2.08
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	6.35	-1.85
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4.5	5.18	-0.68
5	Baltimore Colts	8.5	8.90	-0.40

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atlanta Falcons	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 44
2	Minnesota Vikings	12	Sep 28 – Dec 14	1 in 44
3	Los Angeles Rams	11	Sep 21 – Nov 30	1 in 24
4	New York Giants	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 23
5	San Francisco 49ers	1	Oct 26 – Oct 26	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	Sep 28 – Dec 21	1 in 28
2	New York Giants	7	Oct 19 – Nov 30	1 in 21
3	Los Angeles Rams	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 21
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 11
5	New Orleans Saints	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	91.90%	7.28%	0.74%	0.09%
Washington Redskins	6.53%	59.53%	23.80%	10.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.92%	18.15%	39.14%	41.79%
New Orleans Saints	0.65%	15.04%	36.32%	47.98%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	80.48%	15.88%	3.58%	0.06%
Green Bay Packers	12.89%	49.32%	35.30%	2.49%
Detroit Lions	6.60%	34.05%	55.09%	4.26%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.75%	6.03%	93.20%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	94.75%	4.76%	0.47%	0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.48%	54.97%	35.10%	6.45%
New York Giants	1.73%	37.05%	50.52%	10.69%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%	3.21%	13.91%	82.84%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	73.90%	25.29%	0.77%	0.05%
Baltimore Colts	25.73%	68.21%	5.31%	0.75%
San Francisco 49ers	0.14%	3.02%	50.00%	46.84%
Atlanta Falcons	0.23%	3.48%	43.92%	52.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Dallas Cowboys	56.03%	35.71%	6.16%	1.58%	0.38%	0.11%	0.03%	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	40.41%	50.22%	6.76%	1.94%	0.48%	0.16%	0.02%	<0.01%
Washington Redskins	2.30%	7.27%	34.50%	23.71%	15.11%	9.46%	6.11%	1.55%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.67%	3.21%	22.82%	25.61%	20.44%	15.83%	7.89%	3.53%
New York Giants	0.22%	1.60%	13.05%	20.76%	21.99%	22.58%	13.25%	6.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.23%	1.12%	9.07%	12.88%	19.21%	21.44%	23.02%	13.03%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.83%	7.12%	11.70%	18.37%	21.73%	28.64%	11.49%
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	0.03%	0.53%	1.82%	4.02%	8.69%	21.05%	63.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Minnesota Vikings	43.19%	33.19%	13.84%	7.04%	2.50%	0.21%	0.03%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	38.38%	34.18%	16.58%	8.52%	1.93%	0.36%	0.04%	<0.01%
Baltimore Colts	11.54%	16.86%	29.97%	26.06%	11.35%	3.29%	0.75%	0.17%
Green Bay Packers	4.78%	10.10%	23.11%	28.96%	24.77%	6.34%	1.56%	0.37%
Detroit Lions	2.07%	5.41%	15.11%	23.93%	36.33%	12.61%	3.53%	1.02%
San Francisco 49ers	<0.01%	0.08%	0.56%	2.26%	10.27%	34.11%	30.95%	21.76%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%	0.15%	0.67%	2.46%	9.20%	30.25%	30.56%	26.68%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	0.02%	0.16%	0.78%	3.64%	12.82%	32.58%	49.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Dallas Cowboys	24.92%	25.85%	17.33%	16.28%	7.47%	4.34%	1.93%	1.08%	0.45%	0.19%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Minnesota Vikings	25.38%	20.63%	19.62%	14.11%	9.36%	5.27%	3.14%	1.43%	0.68%	0.25%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Los Angeles Rams	23.03%	19.02%	20.61%	14.45%	10.99%	6.06%	3.36%	1.36%	0.65%	0.28%	0.14%	0.04%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.04%	20.75%	19.92%	20.92%	9.56%	5.65%	2.56%	1.44%	0.66%	0.29%	0.13%	0.06%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Baltimore Colts	5.43%	7.15%	10.13%	12.80%	19.16%	15.13%	12.07%	7.43%	4.76%	2.79%	1.54%	0.90%	0.42%	0.20%	0.09%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	1.90%	3.36%	5.78%	8.92%	16.03%	15.75%	16.67%	11.35%	9.62%	4.74%	3.00%	1.46%	0.82%	0.38%	0.18%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	0.69%	1.46%	3.04%	5.01%	10.49%	12.19%	15.47%	13.91%	14.04%	9.31%	6.02%	4.16%	2.14%	1.26%	0.54%	0.24%
Washington Redskins	0.46%	1.18%	2.14%	4.00%	7.86%	13.77%	13.81%	14.82%	11.64%	10.06%	6.79%	5.47%	3.61%	2.65%	1.18%	0.56%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.08%	0.31%	0.70%	1.62%	3.81%	9.10%	10.52%	14.58%	13.44%	13.66%	10.36%	8.80%	5.51%	3.90%	2.34%	1.28%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.12%	0.30%	0.76%	2.05%	5.12%	7.15%	10.97%	11.92%	14.08%	12.60%	12.45%	8.60%	6.72%	4.35%	2.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.11%	0.20%	0.50%	1.29%	3.19%	4.69%	7.26%	8.54%	11.92%	11.19%	13.08%	11.58%	11.79%	8.24%	6.41%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.05%	0.14%	0.38%	1.02%	2.49%	3.90%	6.37%	8.19%	11.46%	11.81%	13.24%	13.65%	13.08%	8.75%	5.47%
San Francisco 49ers	-	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.37%	0.75%	1.84%	3.15%	6.20%	7.96%	13.99%	14.35%	15.77%	14.39%	12.92%	8.18%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.14%	0.43%	0.87%	1.95%	3.09%	5.73%	7.45%	12.44%	12.47%	14.87%	14.61%	14.80%	11.06%
Chicago Bears	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.02%	0.09%	0.20%	0.61%	1.01%	2.21%	3.22%	6.16%	7.93%	14.07%	17.11%	23.57%	23.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.34%	0.74%	1.26%	2.35%	3.66%	5.53%	8.90%	13.89%	23.03%	40.14%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	56.03%	35.71%	8.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	40.41%	50.22%	9.36%
Washington Redskins	2.30%	7.27%	90.43%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.67%	3.21%	96.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.23%	1.12%	98.65%
New York Giants	0.22%	1.60%	98.17%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.83%	99.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	0.03%	99.97%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	43.19%	33.19%	23.62%
Los Angeles Rams	38.38%	34.18%	27.44%
Baltimore Colts	11.54%	16.86%	71.59%
Green Bay Packers	4.78%	10.10%	85.11%
Detroit Lions	2.07%	5.41%	92.53%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%	0.15%	99.83%
San Francisco 49ers	<0.01%	0.08%	99.91%
Chicago Bears	<0.01%	0.02%	99.98%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+16.96%

Fortress

56.25%4.46%39.29%

Elo Value

Home Edge

35 Elo

0.028 points per Elo point

059.52100

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+4.21 points

Home-Tilted

-8+1.69+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th · Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.1

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

48%

Minnesota Vikings, 1st of 16

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

83.5%

Favored

050.00%150%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.26 · As Expected: 1.26 to 1.73 · Elevated: 1.73 to 2.36 · High Variance: 2.36 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.64 · Close: 1.64 to 2.22 · Off Target: 2.22 to 2.89 · Well Off Target: 2.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 16 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 16 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.8 · As Expected: 0.8 to 1.92 · Several Outliers: 1.92 to 3.52 · Many Outliers: 3.52 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.52 · As Expected: 0.52 to 0.86 · More Than Expected: 0.86 to 1.37 · Far More Than Expected: 1.37 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.28 wins

As Expected

01.574

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.38

Pinpoint

01.934

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.88%

93.07%

Minnesota Vikings

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.12%

9.10%

Chicago Bears

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 16

Minimal Outliers

01.68

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 4

Fewer Than Expected

00.74

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.40

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

89%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 100%

99%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

21%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Routine

0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.16

Highly Predictable

00.171

Matchup Imbalance

0.48

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.72

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.59

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalk Held

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

Favorites Held

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.14 · Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.29 · Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.72

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.12

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.090

Within Noise

00.1430.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	76.38%	65.77%	48.27%
Dallas Cowboys	91.74%	68.22%	28.18%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	90.64%	28.60%	8.19%
Los Angeles Rams	72.56%	15.87%	6.46%
Baltimore Colts	28.41%	9.54%	4.33%
Detroit Lions	7.47%	4.25%	2.46%
Green Bay Packers	14.89%	4.53%	1.56%
Washington Redskins	9.57%	2.38%	0.42%
New York Giants	1.82%	0.43%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	0.17%	0.04%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.95%	0.12%	<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.89%	0.16%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.35%	0.11%	<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.09%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.03%	-	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)		27.3%82.65%	85.7%0.53%	65.2%0.48%	91.3%0.71%	100.0%<0.01%	93.7%1.12%	69.0%5.13%
Dallas Cowboys	72.7%82.65%		93.6%0.39%	83.4%1.26%	95.9%0.58%	100.0%0.03%	97.7%2.61%	85.3%4.22%
New Orleans Saints	14.3%0.53%	6.4%0.39%		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		75.0%0.02%	14.3%0.01%
New York Giants	34.8%0.48%	16.6%1.26%	100.0%<0.01%		90.0%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.7%0.71%	4.1%0.58%	50.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.01%			56.5%0.02%	22.7%0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	6.3%1.12%	2.3%2.61%	25.0%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	43.5%0.02%			11.5%0.11%
Washington Redskins	31.0%5.13%	14.7%4.22%	85.7%0.01%	50.0%0.06%	77.3%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	88.5%0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		0.0%<0.01%		28.6%<0.01%	64.3%0.01%	52.8%0.04%	9.8%0.11%
Baltimore Colts	100.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	33.2%1.04%	63.3%2.10%	57.6%8.83%	16.9%16.43%	100.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions	71.4%<0.01%	66.8%1.04%			75.4%0.24%	72.5%3.71%	27.4%2.48%	100.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers	35.7%0.01%	36.7%2.10%		24.6%0.24%		42.4%7.60%	9.4%4.92%	91.7%0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	47.2%0.04%	42.4%8.83%	100.0%0.01%	27.5%3.71%	57.6%7.60%		12.8%52.37%	75.0%0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	90.2%0.11%	83.1%16.43%	100.0%0.01%	72.6%2.48%	90.6%4.92%	87.2%52.37%		100.0%0.06%
San Francisco 49ers		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	8.3%0.01%	25.0%0.02%	0.0%0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	64.3%0.01%	45.5%2.86%	31.4%1.19%	55.7%1.30%	49.7%4.62%	18.7%18.61%	100.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	57.7%0.03%	60.0%6.37%	47.4%2.92%	71.1%3.09%	64.9%10.72%	30.6%45.09%	75.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints		15.4%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	5.6%0.02%	4.0%0.07%
New York Giants		31.1%0.04%	27.3%0.02%	36.8%0.02%	39.7%0.07%	10.5%0.27%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	7.1%0.01%	6.8%0.07%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.04%	2.1%0.10%
Washington Redskins	0.0%<0.01%	25.7%0.22%	23.6%0.11%	36.4%0.11%	31.9%0.38%	11.6%1.56%
Atlanta Falcons								35.7%0.01%	42.3%0.03%					100.0%<0.01%
Baltimore Colts								54.5%2.86%	40.0%6.37%	84.6%0.01%	68.9%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%0.01%	74.3%0.22%
Detroit Lions								68.6%1.19%	52.6%2.92%	75.0%<0.01%	72.7%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	76.4%0.11%
Green Bay Packers								44.3%1.30%	28.9%3.09%	66.7%<0.01%	63.2%0.02%	80.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	63.6%0.11%
Los Angeles Rams								50.3%4.62%	35.1%10.72%	94.4%0.02%	60.3%0.07%	92.9%0.01%	90.0%0.04%	68.1%0.38%
Minnesota Vikings								81.3%18.61%	69.4%45.09%	96.0%0.07%	89.5%0.27%	93.2%0.07%	97.9%0.10%	88.4%1.56%
San Francisco 49ers								0.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	90.77%	70.30%
Dallas Cowboys	78.38%	22.20%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	21.62%	4.03%
Los Angeles Rams	9.23%	3.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)		21.6%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys	78.4%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams		9.2%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings	90.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)	39.7%1.99%	16.5%19.63%
Dallas Cowboys	68.6%7.24%	24.2%71.14%
Los Angeles Rams			60.3%1.99%	31.4%7.24%
Minnesota Vikings			83.5%19.63%	75.8%71.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Minnesota Vikings 70.30% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

90.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

76.68%

Win Prob

75.78%

Dallas Cowboys 22.20% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

78.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

77.63%

Win Prob

24.22%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 4.03% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

80.35%

Win Prob

16.47%

Los Angeles Rams 3.48% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

9.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

65.45%

Win Prob

31.42%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-12	1352.77	1503.60	34.91%	60.29%	+93.44	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1446.21	1673.89	15.27%	81.79%	-21.81	1-1
1969-10-05	Baltimore Colts	L 14-21	1424.40	1451.54	52.10%	42.85%	-62.06	1-2
1969-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1362.34	1749.69	12.58%	84.89%	-14.94	1-3
1969-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1347.40	1370.80	36.00%	59.16%	+99.11	2-3
1969-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1446.51	1610.99	20.37%	76.02%	-39.33	2-4
1969-11-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-38	1407.18	1785.78	13.12%	84.26%	-33.36	2-5
1969-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-27	1373.82	1563.82	18.18%	78.49%	-20.20	2-6
1969-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 48-31	1353.62	1372.91	53.21%	41.75%	+78.28	3-6
1969-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1431.90	1436.43	38.50%	56.56%	-46.43	3-7
1969-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-13	1385.47	1636.64	13.66%	83.64%	-16.27	3-8
1969-12-07	New Orleans Saints	W 45-17	1369.20	1442.57	45.47%	49.45%	+118.08	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-3	1487.28	1342.14	59.52%	35.65%	+79.74	5-8
1969-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-3	1567.02	2036.15	8.36%	89.83%	+103.74	6-8
1969-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-27	1677.90	1595.06	66.88%	28.72%	-78.82	0-1
1969-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-52	1599.08	1499.32	53.22%	41.75%	-147.54	0-2
1969-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1451.54	1424.40	42.85%	52.10%	+62.05	1-2
1969-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1513.59	1392.52	71.39%	24.56%	+22.42	2-2
1969-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-10	1536.01	1292.42	71.78%	24.20%	+49.41	3-2
1969-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1585.42	1271.70	87.84%	10.05%	-66.58	3-3
1969-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 41-17	1518.84	1612.04	42.67%	52.28%	+115.30	4-3
1969-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 14-6	1634.14	1660.54	52.20%	42.74%	+54.92	5-3
1969-11-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1689.06	1283.19	86.16%	11.49%	-65.42	5-4
1969-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1623.64	1294.63	80.29%	16.59%	+13.00	6-4
1969-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-6	1636.64	1385.47	83.64%	13.66%	+16.27	7-4
1969-12-07	Detroit Lions	T 17-17	1652.91	1626.85	59.52%	35.65%	-2.59	7-4
1969-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1650.32	1688.92	34.05%	61.20%	-64.14	7-5
1969-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 13-7	1586.18	1666.47	29.01%	66.56%	+72.65	8-5
1969-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1487.03	1548.07	31.28%	64.14%	-58.95	0-1
1969-09-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1428.08	1476.05	32.87%	62.44%	-26.03	0-2
1969-10-05	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1402.05	1382.26	41.82%	53.14%	-38.03	0-3
1969-10-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-31	1364.02	1704.74	15.71%	81.29%	-39.52	0-4
1969-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1324.50	1516.85	17.98%	78.71%	-19.98	0-5
1969-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-9	1304.52	1780.72	8.06%	90.19%	-5.05	0-6
1969-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-31	1299.47	1807.18	3.62%	95.52%	-6.51	0-7
1969-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-7	1292.96	1233.03	63.99%	31.41%	+79.95	1-7
1969-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-48	1372.91	1353.62	41.75%	53.21%	-78.28	1-8
1969-11-23	Baltimore Colts	L 21-24	1294.63	1623.64	16.59%	80.29%	-13.01	1-9
1969-11-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-28	1281.62	1683.54	11.72%	85.89%	-10.49	1-10
1969-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-42	1271.13	1315.70	33.30%	61.99%	-69.73	1-11
1969-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 3-21	1201.40	1514.88	17.81%	78.90%	-34.27	1-12
1969-12-21	Detroit Lions	L 3-20	1167.13	1784.28	3.81%	95.28%	-6.86	1-13
1969-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1569.17	1423.45	59.60%	35.57%	+42.97	1-0
1969-09-28	Washington Redskins	W 27-23	1612.14	1496.02	70.83%	25.07%	+22.90	2-0
1969-10-05	Detroit Lions	L 21-28	1635.04	1524.81	70.15%	25.69%	-82.50	2-1
1969-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-17	1552.54	1330.70	69.28%	26.49%	+38.28	3-1
1969-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-31	1590.82	1278.06	87.78%	10.10%	+14.94	4-1
1969-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	T 21-21	1605.76	1428.20	77.31%	19.22%	-6.36	4-1
1969-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-10	1599.40	1797.68	29.13%	66.43%	+167.46	5-1
1969-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-51	1766.86	1813.68	33.02%	62.29%	-104.54	5-2
1969-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-3	1662.32	1153.08	91.70%	6.79%	+13.74	6-2
1969-11-23	New York Giants	W 28-17	1676.06	1233.23	93.68%	5.14%	+7.48	7-2
1969-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-24	1683.54	1281.62	85.89%	11.72%	+10.50	8-2
1969-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 20-7	1694.04	1551.77	73.72%	22.45%	+36.89	9-2
1969-12-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-21	1730.93	1198.68	92.62%	6.02%	+6.49	10-2
1969-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 14-27	1737.42	1412.57	79.92%	16.91%	-127.15	10-3
1969-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-3	1598.69	1542.91	63.46%	31.91%	+66.86	1-0
1969-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1665.55	1364.07	77.78%	18.81%	+17.07	2-0
1969-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-7	1682.62	1459.59	69.42%	26.36%	+67.07	3-0
1969-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1749.69	1362.34	84.89%	12.58%	+14.94	4-0
1969-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-14	1764.63	1370.10	91.88%	6.64%	+17.33	5-0
1969-10-27	New York Giants	W 25-3	1781.96	1412.63	90.77%	7.57%	+15.72	6-0
1969-11-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-42	1797.68	1599.40	66.43%	29.13%	-167.46	6-1
1969-11-09	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1630.22	1329.10	87.07%	10.70%	+19.14	7-1
1969-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-28	1649.36	1492.72	61.07%	34.17%	+56.29	8-1
1969-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-24	1705.65	1836.68	23.55%	72.50%	-10.74	8-2
1969-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	T 24-24	1694.91	1306.49	91.62%	6.85%	-9.22	8-2
1969-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1685.69	1088.98	94.74%	4.26%	+3.23	9-2
1969-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 27-10	1688.92	1650.32	61.20%	34.05%	+64.13	10-2
1969-12-21	Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1753.05	1522.64	82.01%	15.08%	+21.52	11-2
1969-09-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1449.69	1398.60	46.24%	48.67%	-36.27	0-1
1969-09-28	New York Giants	W 24-0	1413.42	1493.66	44.49%	50.43%	+111.39	1-1
1969-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1524.81	1635.04	25.69%	70.15%	+82.51	2-1
1969-10-12	Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1607.32	1570.27	60.99%	34.25%	-90.47	2-2
1969-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1516.85	1324.50	78.71%	17.98%	+19.98	3-2
1969-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1536.83	1783.67	13.95%	83.31%	-23.50	3-3
1969-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-14	1513.33	1338.27	63.49%	31.88%	+50.49	4-3
1969-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-21	1563.82	1373.82	78.49%	18.18%	+20.20	5-3
1969-11-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-0	1584.02	1424.14	75.56%	20.79%	+42.31	6-3
1969-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1626.33	1594.14	43.56%	51.38%	+56.70	7-3
1969-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-27	1683.03	1931.66	23.69%	72.34%	-56.18	7-4
1969-12-07	@ Baltimore Colts	T 17-17	1626.85	1652.91	35.65%	59.52%	+2.59	7-4
1969-12-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-0	1629.44	1821.31	29.88%	65.63%	+154.84	8-4
1969-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-3	1784.28	1167.13	95.28%	3.81%	+6.86	9-4
1969-09-21	Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1548.07	1487.03	64.14%	31.28%	+58.96	1-0
1969-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1607.03	1410.16	79.12%	17.62%	+21.12	2-0
1969-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-19	1628.15	1646.86	36.61%	58.52%	-57.88	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-17	1570.27	1607.32	34.25%	60.99%	+90.47	3-1
1969-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-34	1660.74	1730.97	30.18%	65.31%	-49.75	3-2
1969-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-10	1610.99	1446.51	76.02%	20.37%	+39.32	4-2
1969-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-34	1650.31	1243.26	86.23%	11.42%	+10.23	5-2
1969-11-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-14	1660.54	1634.14	42.74%	52.20%	-54.93	5-3
1969-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-9	1605.61	1918.22	17.88%	78.82%	-11.47	5-4
1969-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 10-16	1594.14	1626.33	51.38%	43.56%	-56.69	5-5
1969-11-30	New York Giants	W 20-10	1537.45	1225.75	87.72%	10.15%	+14.32	6-5
1969-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1551.77	1694.04	22.45%	73.72%	-36.89	6-6
1969-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-3	1514.88	1201.40	78.90%	17.81%	+34.27	7-6
1969-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-28	1549.15	1192.19	90.18%	8.07%	+14.75	8-6
1969-09-21	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-20	1595.06	1677.90	28.72%	66.88%	+78.83	1-0
1969-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-7	1673.89	1446.21	81.79%	15.27%	+21.80	2-0
1969-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 36-17	1695.69	1346.99	89.76%	8.42%	+16.29	3-0
1969-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-21	1711.98	1389.79	79.69%	17.12%	+18.99	4-0
1969-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 34-21	1730.97	1660.74	65.31%	30.18%	+49.75	5-0
1969-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 9-7	1780.72	1304.52	90.19%	8.06%	+5.06	6-0
1969-11-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-6	1785.78	1407.18	84.26%	13.12%	+33.37	7-0
1969-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-30	1819.15	1287.78	96.05%	3.18%	+4.59	8-0
1969-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1823.74	1423.08	85.81%	11.79%	+12.94	9-0
1969-11-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1836.68	1705.65	72.50%	23.55%	+10.74	10-0
1969-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-13	1847.42	1482.86	83.21%	14.04%	+20.97	11-0
1969-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-20	1868.39	1987.84	39.05%	55.99%	-47.08	11-1
1969-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-28	1821.31	1629.44	65.63%	29.88%	-154.84	11-2
1969-12-21	Baltimore Colts	L 7-13	1666.47	1586.18	66.56%	29.01%	-72.64	11-3
1969-09-21	@ New York Giants	L 23-24	1520.01	1472.97	45.66%	49.25%	-20.69	0-1
1969-09-28	Baltimore Colts	W 52-14	1499.32	1599.08	41.75%	53.22%	+147.54	1-1
1969-10-05	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1646.86	1628.15	58.52%	36.61%	+57.88	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-0	1704.74	1364.02	81.29%	15.71%	+39.52	3-1
1969-10-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1744.26	1467.62	75.33%	21.00%	+39.41	4-1
1969-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1783.67	1536.83	83.31%	13.95%	+23.51	5-1
1969-11-02	Chicago Bears	W 31-14	1807.18	1299.47	95.52%	3.62%	+6.50	6-1
1969-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 51-3	1813.68	1766.86	62.29%	33.02%	+104.54	7-1
1969-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 9-7	1918.22	1605.61	78.82%	17.88%	+11.47	8-1
1969-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 52-14	1929.69	1139.34	99.06%	0.74%	+1.97	9-1
1969-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-0	1931.66	1683.03	72.34%	23.69%	+56.18	10-1
1969-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1987.84	1868.39	55.99%	39.05%	+47.08	11-1
1969-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-7	2034.92	1385.43	97.93%	1.65%	+1.23	12-1
1969-12-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-10	2036.15	1567.02	89.83%	8.36%	-103.74	12-2
1969-09-21	Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1423.67	1436.42	54.14%	40.85%	-59.60	0-1
1969-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-21	1364.07	1665.55	18.81%	77.78%	-17.08	0-2
1969-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-36	1346.99	1695.69	8.42%	89.76%	-16.29	0-3
1969-10-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1330.70	1552.54	26.49%	69.28%	-38.28	0-4
1969-10-19	Baltimore Colts	L 10-30	1292.42	1536.01	24.20%	71.78%	-49.40	0-5
1969-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1243.02	1352.76	25.75%	70.09%	-20.37	0-6
1969-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 51-42	1222.65	1434.57	16.44%	80.46%	+106.45	1-6
1969-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-33	1329.10	1630.22	10.70%	87.07%	-19.14	1-7
1969-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 25-24	1309.96	1254.97	46.80%	48.11%	+21.74	2-7
1969-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 43-38	1331.70	1348.62	53.55%	41.42%	+42.13	3-7
1969-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-17	1373.83	1456.91	44.09%	50.84%	+68.74	4-7
1969-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-45	1442.57	1369.20	49.45%	45.47%	-118.08	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1324.49	1507.91	18.72%	77.87%	-14.72	4-9
1969-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1309.77	1069.37	82.81%	14.38%	+11.23	5-9
1969-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-23	1472.97	1520.01	49.25%	45.66%	+20.69	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-24	1493.66	1413.42	50.43%	44.49%	-111.40	1-1
1969-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 28-24	1382.26	1402.05	53.14%	41.82%	+38.04	2-1
1969-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1420.30	1297.32	71.61%	24.36%	+19.26	3-1
1969-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1439.56	1565.26	24.09%	71.91%	-26.93	3-2
1969-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-25	1412.63	1781.96	7.57%	90.77%	-15.72	3-3
1969-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1396.91	1373.13	59.21%	35.95%	-45.91	3-4
1969-11-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-42	1351.00	1328.12	42.25%	52.70%	-96.03	3-5
1969-11-16	New Orleans Saints	L 24-25	1254.97	1309.96	48.11%	46.80%	-21.74	3-6
1969-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1233.23	1676.06	5.14%	93.68%	-7.48	3-7
1969-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1225.75	1537.45	10.15%	87.72%	-14.33	3-8
1969-12-07	St. Louis Cardinals	W 49-6	1211.42	1383.45	32.26%	63.10%	+184.76	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-17	1396.18	1085.75	78.62%	18.06%	+16.39	5-8
1969-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-14	1412.57	1737.42	16.91%	79.92%	+127.14	6-8
1969-09-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1423.45	1569.17	35.57%	59.60%	-42.98	0-1
1969-09-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-27	1380.47	1434.87	48.19%	46.72%	+79.12	1-1
1969-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-38	1459.59	1682.62	26.36%	69.42%	-67.07	1-2
1969-10-13	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-24	1392.52	1513.59	24.56%	71.39%	-22.42	1-3
1969-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-49	1370.10	1764.63	6.64%	91.88%	-17.34	1-4
1969-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 13-10	1352.76	1243.02	70.09%	25.75%	+20.37	2-4
1969-11-02	@ New York Giants	W 23-20	1373.13	1396.91	35.95%	59.21%	+45.92	3-4
1969-11-09	@ Washington Redskins	T 28-28	1419.05	1496.75	29.31%	66.24%	+4.03	3-4
1969-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-23	1423.08	1823.74	11.79%	85.81%	-12.94	3-5
1969-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-30	1410.14	1381.83	43.01%	51.93%	+46.77	4-5
1969-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-26	1456.91	1373.83	50.84%	44.09%	-68.74	4-6
1969-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 29-34	1388.17	1461.89	45.42%	49.50%	-46.03	4-7
1969-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-27	1342.14	1487.28	35.65%	59.52%	-79.73	4-8
1969-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-14	1262.41	1384.20	24.49%	71.47%	-11.18	4-9
1969-09-21	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1398.60	1449.69	48.67%	46.24%	+36.27	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-41	1434.87	1380.47	46.72%	48.19%	-79.11	1-1
1969-10-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-27	1355.76	1502.08	35.50%	59.68%	-58.44	1-2
1969-10-12	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1297.32	1420.30	24.36%	71.61%	-19.26	1-3
1969-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-42	1278.06	1590.82	10.10%	87.78%	-14.95	1-4
1969-10-26	Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1263.11	1592.19	16.58%	80.30%	-19.85	1-5
1969-11-02	Green Bay Packers	L 34-38	1243.26	1650.31	11.42%	86.23%	-10.23	1-6
1969-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-38	1233.03	1292.96	31.41%	63.99%	-79.95	1-7
1969-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-24	1153.08	1662.32	6.79%	91.70%	-13.74	1-8
1969-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-52	1139.34	1929.69	0.74%	99.06%	-1.97	1-9
1969-11-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-47	1137.37	1335.06	17.55%	79.20%	-48.39	1-10
1969-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-10	1088.98	1685.69	4.26%	94.74%	-3.23	1-11
1969-12-14	New York Giants	L 17-21	1085.75	1396.18	18.06%	78.62%	-16.38	1-12
1969-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1069.37	1309.77	14.38%	82.81%	-11.23	1-13
1969-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-24	1503.60	1352.77	60.29%	34.91%	-93.44	0-1
1969-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-14	1410.16	1607.03	17.62%	79.12%	-21.13	0-2
1969-10-05	Washington Redskins	T 17-17	1389.03	1473.12	43.95%	50.98%	+0.76	0-2
1969-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1389.79	1711.98	17.12%	79.69%	-18.99	0-3
1969-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-21	1370.80	1347.40	59.16%	36.00%	-99.10	0-4
1969-10-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1271.70	1585.42	10.05%	87.84%	+66.57	1-4
1969-11-02	Detroit Lions	L 14-26	1338.27	1513.33	31.88%	63.49%	-50.49	1-5
1969-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 30-41	1287.78	1819.15	3.18%	96.05%	-4.59	1-6
1969-11-16	Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1283.19	1689.06	11.49%	86.16%	+65.43	2-6
1969-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 38-43	1348.62	1331.70	41.42%	53.55%	-42.13	2-7
1969-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 24-24	1306.49	1694.91	6.85%	91.62%	+9.21	2-7
1969-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 42-21	1315.70	1271.13	61.99%	33.30%	+69.73	3-7
1969-12-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-10	1385.43	2034.92	1.65%	97.93%	-1.23	3-8
1969-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1384.20	1262.41	71.47%	24.49%	+11.18	4-8
1969-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1542.91	1598.69	31.91%	63.46%	-66.86	0-1
1969-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1476.05	1428.08	62.44%	32.87%	+26.03	1-1
1969-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1502.08	1355.76	59.68%	35.50%	+58.43	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-33	1560.51	1472.36	51.56%	43.38%	-92.89	2-2
1969-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1467.62	1744.26	21.00%	75.33%	-39.42	2-3
1969-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 21-21	1428.20	1605.76	19.22%	77.31%	+6.37	2-3
1969-11-02	New Orleans Saints	L 42-51	1434.57	1222.65	80.46%	16.44%	-106.45	2-4
1969-11-09	New York Giants	W 42-17	1328.12	1351.00	52.70%	42.25%	+96.02	3-4
1969-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1424.14	1584.02	20.79%	75.56%	-42.31	3-5
1969-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-34	1381.83	1410.14	51.93%	43.01%	-46.77	3-6
1969-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 47-10	1335.06	1137.37	79.20%	17.55%	+48.39	4-6
1969-12-07	@ New York Giants	L 6-49	1383.45	1211.42	63.10%	32.26%	-184.77	4-7
1969-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-27	1198.68	1730.93	6.02%	92.62%	-6.49	4-8
1969-12-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-45	1192.19	1549.15	8.07%	90.18%	-14.75	4-9
1969-09-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1436.42	1423.67	40.85%	54.14%	+59.60	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-27	1496.02	1612.14	25.07%	70.83%	-22.90	1-1
1969-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 17-17	1473.12	1389.03	50.98%	43.95%	-0.76	1-1
1969-10-12	St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-17	1472.36	1560.51	43.38%	51.56%	+92.90	2-1
1969-10-19	New York Giants	W 20-14	1565.26	1439.56	71.91%	24.09%	+26.93	3-1
1969-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-7	1592.19	1263.11	80.30%	16.58%	+19.85	4-1
1969-11-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-41	1612.04	1518.84	52.28%	42.67%	-115.29	4-2
1969-11-09	Philadelphia Eagles	T 28-28	1496.75	1419.05	66.24%	29.31%	-4.03	4-2
1969-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-41	1492.72	1649.36	34.17%	61.07%	-56.29	4-3
1969-11-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1436.43	1431.90	56.56%	38.50%	+46.43	5-3
1969-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1482.86	1847.42	14.04%	83.21%	-20.97	5-4
1969-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-29	1461.89	1388.17	49.50%	45.42%	+46.02	6-4
1969-12-14	New Orleans Saints	W 17-14	1507.91	1324.49	77.87%	18.72%	+14.73	7-4
1969-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1522.64	1753.05	15.08%	82.01%	-21.52	7-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-12-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-14	1610.27	1774.57	21.61%	78.39%	+164.82	1-0
1970-01-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-27	1775.09	1939.24	21.63%	78.37%	-41.51	1-1
1969-12-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-38	1774.57	1610.27	78.39%	21.61%	-164.82	0-1
1969-12-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1593.83	1932.41	9.18%	90.82%	-6.83	0-1
1969-12-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1932.41	1593.83	90.82%	9.18%	+6.83	1-0
1970-01-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-7	1939.24	1775.09	78.37%	21.63%	+41.51	2-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1969-12-21	8.36%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1567.02	10	Minnesota Vikings	2036.15	3
2	1969-10-26	10.05%	San Francisco 49ers	1271.70	24	@ Baltimore Colts	1585.42	21
3	1969-11-16	11.49%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1283.19	20	Baltimore Colts	1689.06	17
4	1969-11-02	16.44%	New Orleans Saints	1222.65	51	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1434.57	42
5	1969-12-21	16.91%	@ New York Giants	1412.57	27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1737.42	14
6	1969-12-28 *	21.61%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1610.27	38	@ Dallas Cowboys	1774.57	14
7	1969-10-05	25.69%	Detroit Lions	1524.81	28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1635.04	21
8	1969-09-21	28.72%	Los Angeles Rams	1595.06	27	@ Baltimore Colts	1677.90	20
9	1969-12-21	29.01%	Baltimore Colts	1586.18	13	@ Los Angeles Rams	1666.47	7
10	1969-11-02	29.13%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1599.40	42	Dallas Cowboys	1797.68	10
11	1969-12-14	29.88%	@ Detroit Lions	1629.44	28	Los Angeles Rams	1821.31	0
12	1969-12-07	32.26%	@ New York Giants	1211.42	49	St. Louis Cardinals	1383.45	6
13	1969-10-12	34.25%	Green Bay Packers	1570.27	28	@ Detroit Lions	1607.32	17
14	1969-09-21	34.91%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1352.77	24	San Francisco 49ers	1503.60	12
15	1969-11-02	35.95%	Philadelphia Eagles	1373.13	23	@ New York Giants	1396.91	20
16	1969-10-19	36.00%	Atlanta Falcons	1347.40	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1370.80	7
17	1969-09-21	40.85%	Washington Redskins	1436.42	26	@ New Orleans Saints	1423.67	20
18	1969-09-28	41.75%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1499.32	52	Baltimore Colts	1599.08	14
19	1969-11-02	42.67%	@ Baltimore Colts	1518.84	41	Washington Redskins	1612.04	17
20	1969-10-05	42.85%	Baltimore Colts	1451.54	21	@ Atlanta Falcons	1424.40	14
21	1969-11-23	43.01%	Philadelphia Eagles	1410.14	34	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1381.83	30
22	1969-10-12	43.38%	@ Washington Redskins	1472.36	33	St. Louis Cardinals	1560.51	17
23	1969-11-23	43.56%	Detroit Lions	1626.33	16	@ Green Bay Packers	1594.14	10
24	1969-11-30	44.09%	@ New Orleans Saints	1373.83	26	Philadelphia Eagles	1456.91	17
25	1969-09-28	44.49%	@ Detroit Lions	1413.42	24	New York Giants	1493.66	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1969-12-07	184.77	@ New York Giants	49	1211.42	32.26%	St. Louis Cardinals	6	1383.45	63.10%
2	1969-11-02	167.46	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	42	1599.40	29.13%	Dallas Cowboys	10	1797.68	66.43%
3	1969-12-28 *	164.82	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1610.27	21.61%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1774.57	78.39%
4	1969-12-14	154.84	@ Detroit Lions	28	1629.44	29.88%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1821.31	65.63%
5	1969-09-28	147.54	@ Minnesota Vikings	52	1499.32	41.75%	Baltimore Colts	14	1599.08	53.22%
6	1969-12-21	127.15	@ New York Giants	27	1412.57	16.91%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1737.42	79.92%
7	1969-12-07	118.08	@ Atlanta Falcons	45	1369.20	45.47%	New Orleans Saints	17	1442.57	49.45%
8	1969-11-02	115.30	@ Baltimore Colts	41	1518.84	42.67%	Washington Redskins	17	1612.04	52.28%
9	1969-09-28	111.40	@ Detroit Lions	24	1413.42	44.49%	New York Giants	0	1493.66	50.43%
10	1969-11-02	106.45	New Orleans Saints	51	1222.65	16.44%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	42	1434.57	80.46%
11	1969-11-09	104.54	@ Minnesota Vikings	51	1813.68	62.29%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	1766.86	33.02%
12	1969-12-21	103.74	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1567.02	8.36%	Minnesota Vikings	3	2036.15	89.83%
13	1969-10-19	99.11	Atlanta Falcons	21	1347.40	36.00%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1370.80	59.16%
14	1969-11-09	96.03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	42	1328.12	52.70%	New York Giants	17	1351.00	42.25%
15	1969-09-21	93.44	@ Atlanta Falcons	24	1352.77	34.91%	San Francisco 49ers	12	1503.60	60.29%
16	1969-10-12	92.90	@ Washington Redskins	33	1472.36	43.38%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1560.51	51.56%
17	1969-10-12	90.47	Green Bay Packers	28	1570.27	34.25%	@ Detroit Lions	17	1607.32	60.99%
18	1969-10-05	82.51	Detroit Lions	28	1524.81	25.69%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1635.04	70.15%
19	1969-11-09	79.95	@ Chicago Bears	38	1292.96	63.99%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1233.03	31.41%
20	1969-12-14	79.74	Atlanta Falcons	27	1487.28	59.52%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1342.14	35.65%
21	1969-09-28	79.12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	41	1380.47	48.19%	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1434.87	46.72%
22	1969-09-21	78.83	Los Angeles Rams	27	1595.06	28.72%	@ Baltimore Colts	20	1677.90	66.88%
23	1969-11-16	78.28	@ Atlanta Falcons	48	1353.62	53.21%	Chicago Bears	31	1372.91	41.75%
24	1969-12-21	72.65	Baltimore Colts	13	1586.18	29.01%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1666.47	66.56%
25	1969-12-06	69.73	@ San Francisco 49ers	42	1315.70	61.99%	Chicago Bears	21	1271.13	33.30%