1968 NFL Season

112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1964

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Colts

2.80 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.20 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

2.86 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.86 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys	12	2	0	.857	—	431	186	+245	10.26	+1.74
2	Washington Redskins	5	9	0	.357	7	249	358	-109	5.77	-0.77
3	New Orleans Saints	4	9	1	.321	7.5	246	327	-81	5.66	-1.16
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2	12	0	.143	10	202	351	-149	4.86	-2.86

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings	8	6	0	.571	—	282	242	+40	6.65	+1.35
2	Chicago Bears	7	7	0	.500	1	250	333	-83	6.47	+0.53
3	Green Bay Packers	6	7	1	.464	1.5	281	227	+54	8.81	-2.31
4	Detroit Lions	4	8	2	.357	3	207	241	-34	6.70	-1.70

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	4	0	.714	—	394	273	+121	8.54	+1.46
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	1	.679	0.5	325	289	+36	6.90	+2.60
3	New York Giants	7	7	0	.500	3	294	325	-31	6.86	+0.14
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	11	1	.179	7.5	244	397	-153	5.13	-2.63

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	13	1	0	.929	—	402	144	+258	10.20	+2.80
2	Los Angeles Rams	10	3	1	.750	2.5	312	200	+112	9.78	+0.72
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	6	1	.536	5.5	303	310	-7	6.52	+0.98
4	Atlanta Falcons	2	12	0	.143	11	170	389	-219	2.88	-0.88

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NFL Championship Game

Baltimore Colts 34

Cleveland Browns (1st) 0

Dec 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	Coastal	1773	13	10.20	+2.80	99.45%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	Capitol	1699	12	10.26	+1.74	94.61%	4	7	9	10	11	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	Coastal	1674	10.5	9.78	+0.72	72.76%	3	7	8	9	11	12	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	Century	1611	10	8.54	+1.46	91.08%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	West	Central	1589	6.5	8.81	-2.31	12.88%	2	6	7	8	10	11	14
St. Louis Cardinals	East	Century	1566	9.5	6.90	+2.60	95.53%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Minnesota Vikings	West	Central	1533	8	6.65	+1.35	89.08%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	Coastal	1502	7.5	6.52	+0.98	77.39%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	West	Central	1485	7	6.47	+0.53	78.03%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
New York Giants	East	Century	1457	7	6.86	+0.14	71.27%	1	4	5	6	8	9	13
Detroit Lions	West	Central	1420	5	6.70	-1.70	31.97%	1	3	5	6	8	9	13
Washington Redskins	East	Capitol	1400	5	5.77	-0.77	52.60%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
New Orleans Saints	East	Capitol	1367	4.5	5.66	-1.16	32.80%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Philadelphia Eagles	East	Capitol	1359	2	4.86	-2.86	11.74%	0	2	3	4	6	7	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	Century	1321	2.5	5.13	-2.63	8.88%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Atlanta Falcons	West	Coastal	1245	2	2.88	-0.88	52.09%	0	0	2	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Capitol

Team	Cowboys	Saints	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

Capitol vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Giants	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Central vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	(1st)	Cowboys	Rams	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals	Redskins
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within Century

Team	(1st)	Giants	Steelers	Cardinals
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

Century vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Saints	Eagles	49ers	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within Coastal

Team	Falcons	Colts	Rams	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Coastal vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	(1st)	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts	13	10.20	+2.80
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9.5	6.90	+2.60
3	Dallas Cowboys	12	10.26	+1.74
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	8.54	+1.46
5	Minnesota Vikings	8	6.65	+1.35

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	2	4.86	-2.86
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.5	5.13	-2.63
3	Green Bay Packers	6.5	8.81	-2.31
4	Detroit Lions	5	6.70	-1.70
5	New Orleans Saints	4.5	5.66	-1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	Oct 20 – Dec 8	1 in 65
2	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 20 – Nov 10	1 in 34
3	Baltimore Colts	8	Oct 27 – Dec 15	1 in 24
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 19
5	New York Giants	4	Sep 15 – Oct 6	1 in 13

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	11	Sep 15 – Nov 24	1 in 205
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 19
3	Green Bay Packers	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 13
4	Minnesota Vikings	3	Oct 13 – Oct 27	1 in 10
5	Detroit Lions	4	Oct 27 – Nov 17	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	92.36%	6.29%	1.15%	0.20%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	38.53%	32.92%	25.15%
New Orleans Saints	2.78%	34.91%	34.83%	27.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.46%	20.27%	31.10%	47.17%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	61.57%	22.76%	10.92%	4.75%
Detroit Lions	13.68%	26.66%	29.34%	30.32%
Minnesota Vikings	13.13%	26.89%	29.95%	30.03%
Chicago Bears	11.62%	23.69%	29.79%	34.90%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	58.89%	25.07%	12.23%	3.81%
St. Louis Cardinals	19.56%	32.22%	31.14%	17.08%
New York Giants	17.32%	31.31%	33.07%	18.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.23%	11.40%	23.56%	60.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Colts	54.84%	39.04%	6.05%	0.07%
Los Angeles Rams	42.34%	48.69%	8.83%	0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	2.82%	12.10%	78.34%	6.74%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.17%	6.78%	93.05%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Dallas Cowboys	67.62%	21.53%	6.22%	2.88%	1.07%	0.50%	0.10%	0.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.67%	36.88%	19.51%	11.12%	6.76%	3.53%	1.87%	0.66%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.46%	14.51%	20.30%	18.49%	15.77%	12.79%	8.52%	5.16%
New York Giants	4.58%	13.31%	19.75%	18.23%	16.61%	12.59%	9.46%	5.47%
Washington Redskins	1.43%	4.40%	11.26%	16.19%	17.49%	17.64%	16.61%	14.98%
New Orleans Saints	1.20%	4.47%	10.66%	14.65%	16.33%	18.35%	17.46%	16.88%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.49%	3.15%	6.85%	9.50%	13.42%	16.84%	23.85%	25.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.55%	1.75%	5.45%	8.94%	12.55%	17.76%	22.13%	30.87%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Baltimore Colts	44.98%	25.96%	16.99%	7.77%	2.80%	1.21%	0.27%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	33.86%	27.45%	21.45%	10.03%	4.55%	1.90%	0.73%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	14.27%	26.62%	23.87%	16.60%	9.64%	5.48%	3.26%	0.26%
Detroit Lions	1.87%	5.76%	10.45%	17.59%	19.49%	20.25%	20.50%	4.09%
Minnesota Vikings	1.79%	5.52%	9.92%	18.27%	19.33%	20.42%	20.60%	4.15%
San Francisco 49ers	1.72%	3.92%	8.29%	13.85%	24.06%	25.88%	17.36%	4.92%
Chicago Bears	1.51%	4.75%	8.98%	15.57%	19.03%	21.54%	24.21%	4.41%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.02%	0.05%	0.32%	1.10%	3.32%	13.07%	82.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Dallas Cowboys	29.04%	27.64%	15.03%	11.32%	5.97%	4.28%	2.37%	1.78%	0.97%	0.76%	0.37%	0.27%	0.09%	0.06%	0.05%	—
Baltimore Colts	29.68%	21.05%	16.88%	10.34%	8.76%	5.23%	3.34%	1.83%	1.30%	0.70%	0.49%	0.27%	0.09%	0.02%	0.02%	—
Los Angeles Rams	20.94%	18.65%	17.62%	12.44%	10.70%	6.94%	4.89%	2.88%	2.04%	1.12%	0.65%	0.66%	0.21%	0.22%	0.03%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	8.71%	10.63%	15.42%	14.28%	13.03%	9.64%	8.17%	6.16%	4.34%	2.88%	2.65%	1.74%	1.28%	0.71%	0.30%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.07%	10.11%	11.97%	16.36%	12.58%	11.58%	8.15%	7.06%	4.68%	4.09%	2.54%	2.09%	1.37%	0.77%	0.45%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.05%	2.25%	3.85%	6.46%	7.64%	10.28%	9.01%	10.54%	8.51%	9.44%	7.87%	7.23%	6.47%	4.75%	3.38%	1.27%
New York Giants	0.96%	2.18%	3.66%	6.22%	7.11%	9.89%	9.12%	9.93%	9.62%	9.41%	8.08%	6.96%	6.73%	5.27%	3.55%	1.31%
Detroit Lions	0.91%	1.75%	3.47%	4.43%	6.66%	7.62%	9.36%	8.86%	9.72%	8.69%	10.12%	8.54%	7.46%	6.83%	3.88%	1.70%
Minnesota Vikings	0.82%	1.66%	3.35%	4.12%	6.58%	7.08%	9.24%	8.65%	10.61%	9.23%	9.65%	8.47%	8.30%	6.92%	3.50%	1.82%
San Francisco 49ers	0.78%	1.27%	2.67%	3.60%	5.70%	6.28%	8.20%	8.89%	11.15%	10.53%	10.35%	9.75%	7.85%	6.70%	4.10%	2.18%
Chicago Bears	0.59%	1.39%	2.78%	3.91%	5.75%	6.14%	8.78%	8.08%	9.68%	9.40%	10.50%	8.98%	9.63%	8.19%	3.94%	2.26%
Washington Redskins	0.22%	0.58%	1.20%	2.32%	2.94%	5.20%	6.22%	8.36%	8.09%	8.96%	9.64%	10.41%	11.02%	10.37%	9.73%	4.74%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.46%	1.18%	2.00%	3.24%	4.61%	6.15%	7.09%	7.60%	9.59%	9.13%	10.95%	10.49%	11.37%	11.07%	4.94%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%	0.21%	0.46%	1.28%	1.84%	3.08%	3.80%	5.11%	5.83%	7.54%	8.09%	10.73%	11.89%	14.71%	15.30%	10.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.17%	0.44%	0.91%	1.47%	2.07%	3.06%	4.51%	5.30%	6.72%	8.35%	10.39%	12.03%	14.60%	18.45%	11.48%
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.14%	0.27%	0.56%	0.94%	1.52%	2.56%	5.09%	8.51%	22.25%	58.02%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	67.62%	21.53%	10.85%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	19.67%	36.88%	43.45%
New York Giants	4.58%	13.31%	82.11%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.46%	14.51%	81.03%
Washington Redskins	1.43%	4.40%	94.17%
New Orleans Saints	1.20%	4.47%	94.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.55%	1.75%	97.70%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.49%	3.15%	96.36%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	44.98%	25.96%	29.06%
Los Angeles Rams	33.86%	27.45%	38.69%
Green Bay Packers	14.27%	26.62%	59.11%
Detroit Lions	1.87%	5.76%	92.37%
Minnesota Vikings	1.79%	5.52%	92.69%
San Francisco 49ers	1.72%	3.92%	94.36%
Chicago Bears	1.51%	4.75%	93.74%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.02%	99.98%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	70.94%	50.02%	32.99%
Dallas Cowboys	89.15%	61.33%	29.50%
Los Angeles Rams	61.31%	30.63%	16.62%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	56.55%	24.03%	9.59%
Green Bay Packers	40.89%	12.91%	5.56%
St. Louis Cardinals	18.97%	7.00%	2.40%
New York Giants	17.89%	4.45%	0.84%
Minnesota Vikings	7.31%	2.00%	0.72%
San Francisco 49ers	5.64%	1.66%	0.53%
Chicago Bears	6.26%	1.50%	0.49%
Detroit Lions	7.63%	1.28%	0.30%
Washington Redskins	5.83%	1.32%	0.26%
New Orleans Saints	5.67%	0.96%	0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.30%	0.43%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.64%	0.48%	0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)		18.37%	0.81%	1.97%	0.45%	0.27%	1.16%	1.00%
Dallas Cowboys	30.13%		3.43%	10.59%	1.21%	2.72%	10.33%	2.92%
New Orleans Saints	0.22%	0.49%		0.12%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%
New York Giants	0.78%	2.77%	0.27%		0.05%	0.06%	0.31%	0.21%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	0.18%		0.10%			0.04%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.35%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%			0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.93%	4.90%	0.17%	0.55%	0.10%	0.08%		0.27%
Washington Redskins	0.32%	0.76%	0.02%	0.10%	0.02%	0.02%	0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Colts			2.70%	3.46%	16.40%	22.59%	3.06%	1.81%
Chicago Bears		0.37%		0.04%	0.21%	0.80%	0.01%	0.07%
Detroit Lions		0.46%	0.02%		0.16%	0.50%	0.03%	0.11%
Green Bay Packers		5.61%	0.21%	0.54%		5.52%	0.30%	0.73%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	13.21%	1.72%	2.13%	10.57%		1.82%	1.16%
Minnesota Vikings		0.82%	0.06%	0.06%	0.16%	0.80%		0.10%
San Francisco 49ers		0.45%	0.05%	0.12%	0.48%	0.47%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			8.46%	18.78%					0.50%	1.72%	0.27%	0.17%		2.54%	0.55%
Chicago Bears			0.13%	0.19%						0.11%		0.01%		0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.53%	0.26%			0.33%	1.73%	3.09%	0.36%					0.29%
Dallas Cowboys	12.19%	0.64%			0.52%	5.00%	9.62%	0.78%					0.75%
Detroit Lions			0.03%	0.17%					0.01%	0.04%		0.01%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers			1.49%	2.84%					0.09%	0.44%	0.02%	0.03%		0.53%	0.12%
Los Angeles Rams			3.94%	9.25%					0.25%	1.17%	0.09%	0.20%		1.36%	0.36%
Minnesota Vikings			0.25%	0.28%					0.01%	0.08%		0.01%		0.06%	0.03%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%				0.01%	0.01%	0.03%						0.02%
New York Giants	0.27%	0.04%			0.02%	0.12%	0.34%	0.02%					0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.01%				0.02%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%	0.01%					0.03%
San Francisco 49ers			0.14%	0.32%						0.05%				0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.92%	0.05%			0.09%	0.42%	0.78%	0.11%					0.03%
Washington Redskins	0.08%				0.01%	0.05%	0.10%	0.01%					0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	64.31%	41.55%
Dallas Cowboys	62.71%	27.90%
Los Angeles Rams	35.69%	18.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.29%	12.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)		37.29%
Dallas Cowboys	62.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Colts		64.31%
Los Angeles Rams	35.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Colts		17.21%	24.34%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.73%			5.59%
Dallas Cowboys	16.03%			11.87%
Los Angeles Rams		7.76%	10.47%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Baltimore Colts 41.55% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

58.58%

Win Prob

60.29%

Dallas Cowboys 27.90% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

57.46%

Win Prob

39.71%

Los Angeles Rams 18.23% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

57.43%

Win Prob

46.87%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12.32% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

54.63%

Win Prob

28.11%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1968-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-47	1335.78	1454.13	31.35%	63.61%	-27.71	0-1
1968-09-22	Baltimore Colts	L 20-28	1308.07	1632.05	12.27%	82.81%	-4.94	0-2
1968-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-28	1303.13	1485.52	24.00%	70.99%	-13.10	0-3
1968-10-06	Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1290.03	1597.03	13.36%	81.71%	-10.59	0-4
1968-10-13	New York Giants	W 24-21	1279.44	1551.43	15.87%	79.18%	+18.68	1-4
1968-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-27	1298.12	1684.14	8.92%	86.21%	-4.59	1-5
1968-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-30	1293.53	1525.53	19.18%	75.84%	-13.03	1-6
1968-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-41	1280.50	1373.51	34.58%	60.38%	-21.53	1-7
1968-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1258.97	1665.74	8.00%	87.15%	-3.03	1-8
1968-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1255.94	1506.44	17.59%	77.44%	+18.27	2-8
1968-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 12-17	1274.21	1504.38	19.35%	75.67%	-6.12	2-9
1968-12-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-44	1268.09	1743.17	5.55%	89.67%	-5.28	2-10
1968-12-08	Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1262.81	1431.40	25.48%	69.51%	-14.77	2-11
1968-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-14	1248.04	1498.89	17.56%	77.47%	-3.52	2-12
1968-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1615.51	1474.58	66.35%	28.62%	+16.54	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-20	1632.05	1308.07	82.81%	12.27%	+4.95	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-7	1637.00	1409.65	75.41%	19.60%	+16.17	3-0
1968-10-06	Chicago Bears	W 28-7	1653.17	1483.24	69.65%	25.33%	+16.33	4-0
1968-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-14	1669.50	1484.97	71.22%	23.78%	+17.73	5-0
1968-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-30	1687.23	1494.52	72.06%	22.93%	-31.01	5-1
1968-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-10	1656.22	1688.74	42.83%	52.12%	+29.39	6-1
1968-11-03	@ New York Giants	W 26-0	1685.61	1510.63	70.20%	24.79%	+17.79	7-1
1968-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1703.40	1491.61	73.96%	21.05%	+12.26	8-1
1968-11-17	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-0	1715.66	1521.04	72.26%	22.74%	+16.66	9-1
1968-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-9	1732.32	1532.20	72.81%	22.19%	+10.85	10-1
1968-12-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 44-0	1743.17	1268.09	89.67%	5.55%	+5.27	11-1
1968-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1748.44	1598.19	67.44%	27.54%	+13.93	12-1
1968-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-24	1762.37	1684.05	58.44%	36.52%	+10.15	13-1
1968-09-15	Washington Redskins	L 28-38	1532.82	1485.25	54.23%	40.72%	-23.42	0-1
1968-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-42	1509.40	1443.96	56.70%	38.26%	-50.12	0-2
1968-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1459.28	1516.06	39.44%	55.51%	+23.96	1-2
1968-10-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-28	1483.24	1653.17	25.33%	69.65%	-16.33	1-3
1968-10-13	Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1466.91	1489.50	44.24%	50.71%	-25.87	1-4
1968-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-16	1441.04	1397.30	53.70%	41.25%	+20.57	2-4
1968-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-24	1461.61	1490.58	43.33%	51.62%	+9.98	3-4
1968-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1471.59	1626.00	27.06%	67.92%	+16.01	4-4
1968-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-19	1487.60	1495.18	46.38%	48.56%	+18.84	5-4
1968-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-16	1506.44	1255.94	77.44%	17.59%	-18.26	5-5
1968-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-34	1488.18	1652.99	25.90%	69.09%	-20.27	5-6
1968-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-17	1467.91	1383.18	59.29%	35.67%	+12.15	6-6
1968-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-16	1480.06	1694.15	20.83%	74.18%	+10.10	7-6
1968-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 27-28	1490.16	1584.26	34.44%	60.52%	-4.80	7-7
1968-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-10	1528.57	1429.00	61.23%	33.73%	+17.59	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1546.16	1599.18	39.96%	54.99%	-25.35	1-1
1968-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-24	1520.81	1644.91	30.64%	64.33%	-18.19	1-2
1968-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-24	1502.62	1393.47	62.46%	32.50%	+12.01	2-2
1968-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-27	1514.63	1422.65	60.25%	34.71%	-20.11	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Baltimore Colts	W 30-20	1494.52	1687.23	22.93%	72.06%	+31.01	3-3
1968-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-7	1525.53	1293.53	75.84%	19.18%	+13.03	4-3
1968-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-21	1538.56	1516.33	50.66%	44.29%	+21.14	5-3
1968-11-10	New Orleans Saints	W 35-17	1559.70	1414.12	66.90%	28.08%	+16.70	6-3
1968-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-24	1576.40	1396.18	70.76%	24.23%	+15.64	7-3
1968-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 47-13	1592.04	1326.41	78.68%	16.36%	+13.54	8-3
1968-12-01	New York Giants	W 45-10	1605.58	1512.66	60.37%	34.59%	+28.50	9-3
1968-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1634.08	1378.25	77.88%	17.15%	+4.21	10-3
1968-12-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-27	1638.29	1538.10	61.31%	33.65%	-27.69	10-4
1968-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 59-13	1566.03	1477.10	59.85%	35.11%	+33.15	1-0
1968-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-7	1599.18	1546.16	54.99%	39.96%	+25.35	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-13	1624.53	1438.02	71.42%	23.57%	+18.79	3-0
1968-10-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1643.32	1435.11	73.61%	21.39%	+12.46	4-0
1968-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1655.78	1408.63	77.16%	17.87%	+11.33	5-0
1968-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-7	1667.11	1503.78	68.92%	26.06%	+13.20	6-0
1968-10-28	Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1680.31	1599.43	58.78%	36.18%	-26.57	6-1
1968-11-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-3	1653.74	1424.40	75.59%	19.42%	+10.29	7-1
1968-11-10	New York Giants	L 21-27	1664.03	1492.84	69.79%	25.20%	-23.26	7-2
1968-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-24	1640.77	1410.11	75.71%	19.30%	+12.22	8-2
1968-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1652.99	1488.18	69.09%	25.90%	+20.26	9-2
1968-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 29-20	1673.25	1384.48	80.43%	14.62%	+6.24	10-2
1968-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-7	1679.49	1348.76	83.23%	11.86%	+7.75	11-2
1968-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1687.24	1468.82	74.59%	20.42%	+12.25	12-2
1968-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-59	1477.10	1566.03	35.11%	59.85%	-33.14	0-1
1968-09-22	Chicago Bears	W 42-0	1443.96	1509.40	38.26%	56.70%	+50.12	1-1
1968-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-17	1494.08	1618.49	30.61%	64.36%	+21.46	2-1
1968-10-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1515.54	1492.10	50.83%	44.12%	-26.04	2-2
1968-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-10	1489.50	1466.91	50.71%	44.24%	+25.86	3-2
1968-10-20	Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1515.36	1600.21	35.65%	59.31%	+0.79	3-2
1968-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-14	1516.15	1498.18	50.05%	44.90%	-18.15	3-3
1968-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1498.00	1659.35	26.28%	68.70%	-6.39	3-4
1968-11-10	Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1491.61	1703.40	21.05%	73.96%	-12.27	3-5
1968-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-13	1479.34	1516.81	42.13%	52.82%	-15.39	3-6
1968-11-24	New Orleans Saints	T 20-20	1463.95	1382.43	58.87%	36.09%	-0.75	3-6
1968-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-12	1463.20	1312.86	67.45%	27.53%	-31.80	3-7
1968-12-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1431.40	1262.81	69.51%	25.48%	+14.78	4-7
1968-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-14	1446.18	1374.03	57.61%	37.35%	-26.05	4-8
1968-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-13	1637.83	1471.00	69.31%	25.67%	+14.88	1-0
1968-09-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-26	1652.71	1481.84	69.75%	25.23%	-34.22	1-1
1968-09-29	Detroit Lions	L 17-23	1618.49	1494.08	64.36%	30.61%	-21.46	1-2
1968-10-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1597.03	1290.03	81.71%	13.36%	+10.60	2-2
1968-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-16	1607.63	1676.73	37.76%	57.20%	-7.42	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	T 14-14	1600.21	1515.36	59.31%	35.65%	-0.78	2-3
1968-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-17	1599.43	1680.31	36.18%	58.78%	+26.57	3-3
1968-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1626.00	1471.59	67.92%	27.06%	-16.00	3-4
1968-11-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-14	1610.00	1499.76	62.60%	32.37%	-17.05	3-5
1968-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 29-7	1592.95	1397.41	72.35%	22.65%	+14.99	4-5
1968-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1607.94	1397.89	73.79%	21.22%	+13.40	5-5
1968-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1621.34	1497.52	64.29%	30.68%	-23.15	5-6
1968-12-07	Baltimore Colts	L 3-16	1598.19	1748.44	27.54%	67.44%	-13.93	5-7
1968-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-27	1584.26	1490.16	60.52%	34.44%	+4.79	6-7
1968-09-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-13	1613.07	1468.81	66.74%	28.23%	+13.13	1-0
1968-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-10	1626.20	1428.36	72.58%	22.41%	+18.71	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-6	1644.91	1520.81	64.33%	30.64%	+18.18	3-0
1968-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-10	1663.09	1498.61	69.05%	25.93%	+13.64	4-0
1968-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-14	1676.73	1607.63	57.20%	37.76%	+7.41	5-0
1968-10-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1684.14	1298.12	86.21%	8.92%	+4.60	6-0
1968-10-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1688.74	1656.22	52.12%	42.83%	-29.39	6-1
1968-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1659.35	1498.00	68.70%	26.28%	+6.39	7-1
1968-11-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1665.74	1258.97	87.15%	8.00%	+3.03	8-1
1968-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1668.77	1476.34	72.03%	22.96%	-1.64	8-1
1968-11-24	New York Giants	W 24-21	1667.13	1519.42	67.15%	27.83%	+6.76	9-1
1968-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-3	1673.89	1521.36	67.70%	27.28%	+20.26	10-1
1968-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 16-17	1694.15	1480.06	74.18%	20.83%	-10.10	10-2
1968-12-15	Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1684.05	1762.37	36.52%	58.44%	-10.15	10-3
1968-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 47-7	1454.13	1335.78	63.61%	31.35%	+27.71	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-13	1481.84	1652.71	25.23%	69.75%	+34.22	2-0
1968-09-29	Chicago Bears	L 17-27	1516.06	1459.28	55.51%	39.44%	-23.96	2-1
1968-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1492.10	1515.54	44.12%	50.83%	+26.04	3-1
1968-10-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1518.14	1421.53	60.85%	34.11%	-14.36	3-2
1968-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1503.78	1667.11	26.06%	68.92%	-13.20	3-3
1968-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-26	1490.58	1461.61	51.62%	43.33%	-9.99	3-4
1968-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 27-14	1480.59	1415.74	56.62%	38.34%	+19.17	4-4
1968-11-10	Green Bay Packers	W 14-10	1499.76	1610.00	32.37%	62.60%	+17.05	5-4
1968-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-6	1516.81	1479.34	52.82%	42.13%	+15.39	6-4
1968-11-24	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-21	1532.20	1732.32	22.19%	72.81%	-10.84	6-5
1968-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-31	1521.36	1673.89	27.28%	67.70%	-20.26	6-6
1968-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-20	1501.10	1520.67	44.67%	50.28%	+21.78	7-6
1968-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1522.88	1368.95	67.86%	27.12%	+10.07	8-6
1968-09-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-24	1429.00	1528.57	33.73%	61.23%	-17.59	0-1
1968-09-22	Washington Redskins	W 37-17	1411.41	1508.67	34.03%	60.94%	+37.12	1-1
1968-09-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-21	1448.53	1428.21	50.39%	44.56%	-6.90	1-2
1968-10-06	@ New York Giants	L 21-38	1441.63	1531.34	35.01%	59.95%	-20.10	1-3
1968-10-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1421.53	1518.14	34.11%	60.85%	+14.36	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1435.89	1372.41	56.43%	38.52%	+10.68	3-3
1968-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1446.57	1478.33	42.94%	52.01%	-22.17	3-4
1968-11-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-17	1424.40	1653.74	19.42%	75.59%	-10.28	3-5
1968-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-35	1414.12	1559.70	28.08%	66.90%	-16.71	3-6
1968-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-29	1397.41	1592.95	22.65%	72.35%	-14.98	3-7
1968-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	T 20-20	1382.43	1463.95	36.09%	58.87%	+0.75	3-7
1968-12-01	Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1383.18	1467.91	35.67%	59.29%	-12.15	3-8
1968-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-29	1371.03	1344.66	51.25%	43.70%	-24.30	3-9
1968-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-14	1346.73	1341.01	48.30%	46.65%	+20.28	4-9
1968-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-20	1458.16	1452.34	48.31%	46.64%	+23.99	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-25	1482.15	1456.12	51.20%	43.75%	+18.10	2-0
1968-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 48-21	1500.25	1471.56	51.58%	43.37%	+31.09	3-0
1968-10-06	New Orleans Saints	W 38-21	1531.34	1441.63	59.95%	35.01%	+20.09	4-0
1968-10-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-24	1551.43	1279.44	79.18%	15.87%	-18.69	4-1
1968-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-26	1532.74	1467.24	56.71%	38.25%	-30.93	4-2
1968-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1501.81	1424.56	58.29%	36.66%	+8.82	5-2
1968-11-03	Baltimore Colts	L 0-26	1510.63	1685.61	24.79%	70.20%	-17.79	5-3
1968-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1492.84	1664.03	25.20%	69.79%	+23.26	6-3
1968-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-6	1516.10	1329.73	71.41%	23.58%	+3.32	7-3
1968-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-24	1519.42	1667.13	27.83%	67.15%	-6.76	7-4
1968-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-45	1512.66	1605.58	34.59%	60.37%	-28.49	7-5
1968-12-08	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-28	1484.17	1522.76	41.98%	52.98%	-15.35	7-6
1968-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-28	1468.82	1687.24	20.42%	74.59%	-12.25	7-7
1968-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-30	1471.00	1637.83	25.67%	69.31%	-14.88	0-1
1968-09-22	New York Giants	L 25-34	1456.12	1482.15	43.75%	51.20%	-18.10	0-2
1968-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-45	1438.02	1624.53	23.57%	71.42%	-18.79	0-3
1968-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1419.23	1440.47	44.43%	50.52%	-10.60	0-4
1968-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-34	1408.63	1655.78	17.87%	77.16%	-11.33	0-5
1968-10-20	Chicago Bears	L 16-29	1397.30	1441.04	41.25%	53.70%	-20.56	0-6
1968-10-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-6	1376.74	1361.73	49.63%	45.32%	-11.78	0-7
1968-11-03	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-45	1364.96	1500.50	29.26%	65.71%	-21.69	0-8
1968-11-10	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1343.27	1396.57	39.92%	55.03%	-13.54	0-9
1968-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 6-7	1329.73	1516.10	23.58%	71.41%	-3.32	0-10
1968-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-47	1326.41	1592.04	16.36%	78.68%	-13.55	0-11
1968-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 12-0	1312.86	1463.20	27.53%	67.45%	+31.80	1-11
1968-12-08	New Orleans Saints	W 29-17	1344.66	1371.03	43.70%	51.25%	+24.29	2-11
1968-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1368.95	1522.88	27.12%	67.86%	-10.07	2-12
1968-09-15	New York Giants	L 20-34	1452.34	1458.16	46.64%	48.31%	-23.98	0-1
1968-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-45	1428.36	1626.20	22.41%	72.58%	-18.71	0-2
1968-09-29	Baltimore Colts	L 7-41	1409.65	1637.00	19.60%	75.41%	-16.18	0-3
1968-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-31	1393.47	1502.62	32.50%	62.46%	-12.00	0-4
1968-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1381.47	1451.07	37.69%	57.26%	-9.06	0-5
1968-10-20	New Orleans Saints	L 12-16	1372.41	1435.89	38.52%	56.43%	-10.68	0-6
1968-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-3	1361.73	1376.74	45.32%	49.63%	+11.78	1-6
1968-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-21	1373.51	1280.50	60.38%	34.58%	+21.53	2-6
1968-11-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 28-28	1395.04	1522.18	30.27%	64.70%	+1.14	2-6
1968-11-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1396.18	1576.40	24.23%	70.76%	-15.63	2-7
1968-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-45	1380.55	1477.98	34.00%	60.96%	-19.54	2-8
1968-12-01	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-20	1361.01	1510.50	27.62%	67.35%	-12.25	2-9
1968-12-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1348.76	1679.49	11.86%	83.23%	-7.75	2-10
1968-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-24	1341.01	1346.73	46.65%	48.30%	-20.28	2-11
1968-09-15	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1474.58	1615.51	28.62%	66.35%	-16.54	0-1
1968-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1458.04	1455.68	47.81%	47.14%	+27.48	1-1
1968-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-13	1485.52	1303.13	70.99%	24.00%	+13.09	2-1
1968-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1498.61	1663.09	25.93%	69.05%	-13.64	2-2
1968-10-13	Baltimore Colts	L 14-42	1484.97	1669.50	23.78%	71.22%	-17.73	2-3
1968-10-20	@ New York Giants	W 26-10	1467.24	1532.74	38.25%	56.71%	+30.94	3-3
1968-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1498.18	1516.15	44.90%	50.05%	+18.15	4-3
1968-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-33	1516.33	1538.56	44.29%	50.66%	-21.15	4-4
1968-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-27	1495.18	1487.60	48.56%	46.38%	-18.84	4-5
1968-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	T 20-20	1476.34	1668.77	22.96%	72.03%	+1.64	4-5
1968-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-28	1477.98	1380.55	60.96%	34.00%	+19.54	5-5
1968-12-01	Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1497.52	1621.34	30.68%	64.29%	+23.15	6-5
1968-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-30	1520.67	1501.10	50.28%	44.67%	-21.78	6-6
1968-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-12	1498.89	1248.04	77.47%	17.56%	+3.52	7-6
1968-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1468.81	1613.07	28.23%	66.74%	-13.13	0-1
1968-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-35	1455.68	1458.04	47.14%	47.81%	-27.47	0-2
1968-09-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1428.21	1448.53	44.56%	50.39%	+6.90	1-2
1968-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1435.11	1643.32	21.39%	73.61%	-12.46	1-3
1968-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-21	1422.65	1514.63	34.71%	60.25%	+20.10	2-3
1968-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 41-14	1442.75	1460.13	44.98%	49.97%	+35.58	3-3
1968-10-27	New Orleans Saints	W 31-17	1478.33	1446.57	52.01%	42.94%	+22.17	4-3
1968-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-17	1500.50	1364.96	65.71%	29.26%	+21.68	5-3
1968-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 28-28	1522.18	1395.04	64.70%	30.27%	-1.14	5-3
1968-11-17	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-27	1521.04	1715.66	22.74%	72.26%	-16.66	5-4
1968-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-12	1504.38	1274.21	75.67%	19.35%	+6.12	6-4
1968-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1510.50	1361.01	67.35%	27.62%	+12.26	7-4
1968-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 28-21	1522.76	1484.17	52.98%	41.98%	+15.34	8-4
1968-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-16	1538.10	1638.29	33.65%	61.31%	+27.69	9-4
1968-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-28	1485.25	1532.82	40.72%	54.23%	+23.42	1-0
1968-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-37	1508.67	1411.41	60.94%	34.03%	-37.11	1-1
1968-09-29	@ New York Giants	L 21-48	1471.56	1500.25	43.37%	51.58%	-31.09	1-2
1968-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1440.47	1419.23	50.52%	44.43%	+10.60	2-2
1968-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-13	1451.07	1381.47	57.26%	37.69%	+9.06	3-2
1968-10-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-41	1460.13	1442.75	49.97%	44.98%	-35.57	3-3
1968-10-27	New York Giants	L 10-13	1424.56	1501.81	36.66%	58.29%	-8.82	3-4
1968-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-27	1415.74	1480.59	38.34%	56.62%	-19.17	3-5
1968-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1396.57	1343.27	55.03%	39.92%	+13.54	4-5
1968-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-44	1410.11	1640.77	19.30%	75.71%	-12.22	4-6
1968-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 7-27	1397.89	1607.94	21.22%	73.79%	-13.41	4-7
1968-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-29	1384.48	1673.25	14.62%	80.43%	-6.23	4-8
1968-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-24	1378.25	1634.08	17.15%	77.88%	-4.22	4-9
1968-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 14-3	1374.03	1446.18	37.35%	57.61%	+26.05	5-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1968-12-22	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1772.52	1532.95	79.88%	20.12%	+8.30	1-0
1968-12-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-0	1780.82	1637.64	69.51%	30.49%	+23.18	2-0
1968-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-20	1610.60	1699.49	37.48%	62.52%	+27.04	1-0
1968-12-29	Baltimore Colts	L 0-34	1637.64	1780.82	30.49%	69.51%	-23.18	1-1
1968-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-31	1699.49	1610.60	62.52%	37.48%	-27.04	0-1
1968-12-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-24	1532.95	1772.52	20.12%	79.88%	-8.30	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1968-10-13	15.87%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1279.44	24	New York Giants	1551.43	21
2	1968-11-17	17.59%	Atlanta Falcons	1255.94	16	@ Chicago Bears	1506.44	13
3	1968-12-08	20.83%	Chicago Bears	1480.06	17	@ Los Angeles Rams	1694.15	16
4	1968-10-20	22.93%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1494.52	30	@ Baltimore Colts	1687.23	20
5	1968-11-10	25.20%	New York Giants	1492.84	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1664.03	21
6	1968-09-22	25.23%	Minnesota Vikings	1481.84	26	@ Green Bay Packers	1652.71	13
7	1968-11-03	27.06%	Chicago Bears	1471.59	13	@ Green Bay Packers	1626.00	10
8	1968-11-28	27.53%	Philadelphia Eagles	1312.86	12	@ Detroit Lions	1463.20	0
9	1968-09-29	30.61%	Detroit Lions	1494.08	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1618.49	17
10	1968-12-01	30.68%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1497.52	27	Green Bay Packers	1621.34	20
11	1968-11-10	32.37%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1499.76	14	Green Bay Packers	1610.00	10
12	1968-12-14	33.65%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1538.10	27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1638.29	16
13	1968-09-22	34.03%	@ New Orleans Saints	1411.41	37	Washington Redskins	1508.67	17
14	1968-10-13	34.11%	@ New Orleans Saints	1421.53	20	Minnesota Vikings	1518.14	17
15	1968-10-13	34.71%	St. Louis Cardinals	1422.65	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1514.63	21
16	1968-10-28	36.18%	Green Bay Packers	1599.43	28	@ Dallas Cowboys	1680.31	17
17	1968-12-15	37.35%	@ Washington Redskins	1374.03	14	Detroit Lions	1446.18	3
18	1968-12-21 *	37.48%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1610.60	31	Dallas Cowboys	1699.49	20
19	1968-10-20	38.25%	San Francisco 49ers	1467.24	26	@ New York Giants	1532.74	10
20	1968-09-22	38.26%	@ Detroit Lions	1443.96	42	Chicago Bears	1509.40	0
21	1968-09-29	39.44%	Chicago Bears	1459.28	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1516.06	17
22	1968-09-15	40.72%	Washington Redskins	1485.25	38	@ Chicago Bears	1532.82	28
23	1968-10-27	42.83%	@ Baltimore Colts	1656.22	27	Los Angeles Rams	1688.74	10
24	1968-10-27	43.33%	@ Chicago Bears	1461.61	26	Minnesota Vikings	1490.58	24
25	1968-12-08	43.70%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1344.66	29	New Orleans Saints	1371.03	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1968-09-22	50.12	@ Detroit Lions	42	1443.96	38.26%	Chicago Bears	0	1509.40	56.70%
2	1968-09-22	37.12	@ New Orleans Saints	37	1411.41	34.03%	Washington Redskins	17	1508.67	60.94%
3	1968-10-20	35.58	@ St. Louis Cardinals	41	1442.75	44.98%	Washington Redskins	14	1460.13	49.97%
4	1968-09-22	34.22	Minnesota Vikings	26	1481.84	25.23%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1652.71	69.75%
5	1968-09-15	33.15	@ Dallas Cowboys	59	1566.03	59.85%	Detroit Lions	13	1477.10	35.11%
6	1968-11-28	31.80	Philadelphia Eagles	12	1312.86	27.53%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1463.20	67.45%
7	1968-09-29	31.09	@ New York Giants	48	1500.25	51.58%	Washington Redskins	21	1471.56	43.37%
8	1968-10-20	31.01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1494.52	22.93%	@ Baltimore Colts	20	1687.23	72.06%
9	1968-10-20	30.94	San Francisco 49ers	26	1467.24	38.25%	@ New York Giants	10	1532.74	56.71%
10	1968-10-27	29.39	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1656.22	42.83%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1688.74	52.12%
11	1968-12-01	28.50	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1605.58	60.37%	New York Giants	10	1512.66	34.59%
12	1968-09-14	27.71	@ Minnesota Vikings	47	1454.13	63.61%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1335.78	31.35%
13	1968-12-14	27.69	@ St. Louis Cardinals	27	1538.10	33.65%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1638.29	61.31%
14	1968-09-22	27.48	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1458.04	47.81%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1455.68	47.14%
15	1968-12-21 *	27.04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	31	1610.60	37.48%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1699.49	62.52%
16	1968-10-28	26.57	Green Bay Packers	28	1599.43	36.18%	@ Dallas Cowboys	17	1680.31	58.78%
17	1968-12-15	26.05	@ Washington Redskins	14	1374.03	37.35%	Detroit Lions	3	1446.18	57.61%
18	1968-10-06	26.04	@ Minnesota Vikings	24	1492.10	44.12%	Detroit Lions	10	1515.54	50.83%
19	1968-10-13	25.87	Detroit Lions	28	1489.50	50.71%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1466.91	44.24%
20	1968-09-22	25.35	@ Dallas Cowboys	28	1599.18	54.99%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1546.16	39.96%
21	1968-12-08	24.30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	29	1344.66	43.70%	New Orleans Saints	17	1371.03	51.25%
22	1968-09-15	23.99	New York Giants	34	1458.16	48.31%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1452.34	46.64%
23	1968-09-29	23.96	Chicago Bears	27	1459.28	39.44%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1516.06	55.51%
24	1968-09-15	23.42	Washington Redskins	38	1485.25	40.72%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1532.82	54.23%
25	1968-11-10	23.26	New York Giants	27	1492.84	25.20%	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1664.03	69.79%