1968 NFL Season

112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

1st SB App.

Last Appearance: 1964

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Colts

2.67 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.33 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Philadelphia Eagles

2.68 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.68 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys	12	2	0	.857	-	431	186	+245	10.53	+1.47
2	Washington Redskins	5	9	0	.357	7	249	358	-109	5.63	-0.63
3	New Orleans Saints	4	9	1	.321	7.5	246	327	-81	5.68	-1.18
4	Philadelphia Eagles	2	12	0	.143	10	202	351	-149	4.68	-2.68

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings	8	6	0	.571	-	282	242	+40	6.86	+1.14
2	Chicago Bears	7	7	0	.500	1	250	333	-83	6.22	+0.78
3	Green Bay Packers	6	7	1	.464	1.5	281	227	+54	8.60	-2.10
4	Detroit Lions	4	8	2	.357	3	207	241	-34	6.76	-1.76

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	4	0	.714	-	394	273	+121	8.66	+1.34
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	1	.679	0.5	325	289	+36	7.01	+2.49
3	New York Giants	7	7	0	.500	3	294	325	-31	6.94	+0.06
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	11	1	.179	7.5	244	397	-153	4.95	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	13	1	0	.929	-	402	144	+258	10.33	+2.67
2	Los Angeles Rams	10	3	1	.750	2.5	312	200	+112	9.80	+0.70
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	6	1	.536	5.5	303	310	-7	6.59	+0.91
4	Atlanta Falcons	2	12	0	.143	11	170	389	-219	2.75	-0.75

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NFL Championship Game

Baltimore Colts 34

Cleveland Browns (1st) 0

Dec 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	Coastal	1798	13	10.33	+2.67	99.17%	2	7	9	10	11	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	Capitol	1715	12	10.53	+1.47	92.50%	2	8	9	10	11	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	Coastal	1680	10.5	9.80	+0.70	71.58%	2	7	8	10	11	12	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	Century	1626	10	8.66	+1.34	89.65%	1	6	7	8	10	11	14
St. Louis Cardinals	East	Century	1590	9.5	7.01	+2.49	94.79%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	West	Central	1579	6.5	8.60	-2.10	14.77%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	West	Central	1547	8	6.86	+1.14	86.79%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	Coastal	1508	7.5	6.59	+0.91	75.88%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	West	Central	1480	7	6.22	+0.78	81.84%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	East	Century	1453	7	6.94	+0.06	69.29%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Detroit Lions	West	Central	1402	5	6.76	-1.76	30.17%	0	4	5	6	8	9	14
Washington Redskins	East	Capitol	1388	5	5.63	-0.63	54.85%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
New Orleans Saints	East	Capitol	1356	4.5	5.68	-1.18	32.08%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	Capitol	1348	2	4.68	-2.68	12.84%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	Century	1300	2.5	4.95	-2.45	9.73%	0	2	3	5	6	7	12
Atlanta Falcons	West	Coastal	1230	2	2.75	-0.75	52.14%	0	0	2	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Capitol

Team	Cowboys	Saints	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

Capitol vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Giants	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	-	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Central vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	(1st)	Cowboys	Rams	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals	Redskins
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within Century

Team	(1st)	Giants	Steelers	Cardinals
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

Century vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Saints	Eagles	49ers	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within Coastal

Team	Falcons	Colts	Rams	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Coastal vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	(1st)	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.89%	1.34%	1.34%	1.34%	0.89%	—	0.89%	6.70%
7–13	1.34%	2.68%	4.91%	5.80%	4.02%	0.89%	2.68%	22.32%
14–20	1.34%	4.91%	6.25%	4.91%	4.46%	1.79%	0.89%	24.55%
21–27	1.34%	5.80%	4.91%	5.36%	2.68%	0.89%	1.34%	22.32%
28–34	0.89%	4.02%	4.46%	2.68%	0.89%	0.45%	0.45%	13.84%
35–41	—	0.89%	1.79%	0.89%	0.45%	—	—	4.02%
42+	0.89%	2.68%	0.89%	1.34%	0.45%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.70%	22.32%	24.55%	22.32%	13.84%	4.02%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.50	20.50	+0.00
SD	11.07	11.07	17.56
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	59	59	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	57.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.14	27.79	-15.64
SD	6.55	11.16	14.79
CV	0.54	0.40	—
Max	24	47	+3
Min	0	13	-44

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	28.57%	—	—	—	—	—	42.86%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	42.86%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.71	10.29	+18.43
SD	8.22	9.11	13.38
CV	0.29	0.89	—
Max	44	30	+44
Min	16	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.86	23.79	-5.93
SD	10.14	9.52	16.39
CV	0.57	0.40	—
Max	29	42	+13
Min	0	10	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	50.00%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.14	19.50	+8.64
SD	12.95	6.99	17.65
CV	0.46	0.36	—
Max	47	28	+35
Min	6	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	42.86%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	14.29%	50.00%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.79	13.29	+17.50
SD	11.85	8.40	14.44
CV	0.39	0.63	—
Max	59	28	+46
Min	17	3	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.79	17.21	-2.43
SD	11.44	13.80	20.20
CV	0.77	0.80	—
Max	42	59	+42
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	35.71%	35.71%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.07	16.21	+3.86
SD	10.00	7.13	13.87
CV	0.50	0.44	—
Max	38	27	+31
Min	3	7	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	14.29	+8.00
SD	8.96	7.55	13.30
CV	0.40	0.53	—
Max	45	28	+35
Min	10	3	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	17.29	+2.86
SD	11.24	7.66	16.28
CV	0.56	0.44	—
Max	47	31	+40
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	57.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.57	23.36	-5.79
SD	8.01	7.98	12.16
CV	0.46	0.34	—
Max	37	38	+20
Min	3	12	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	23.21	-2.21
SD	13.74	8.93	17.14
CV	0.65	0.38	—
Max	48	45	+27
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	—	21.43%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.43	25.07	-10.64
SD	6.64	15.21	14.44
CV	0.46	0.61	—
Max	29	47	+12
Min	3	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	21.43%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.43	28.36	-10.93
SD	10.35	12.77	14.57
CV	0.59	0.45	—
Max	41	45	+20
Min	6	3	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.64	22.14	-0.50
SD	9.89	9.84	14.60
CV	0.46	0.44	—
Max	45	42	+18
Min	10	7	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	20.64	+2.57
SD	11.89	6.98	16.20
CV	0.51	0.34	—
Max	45	35	+28
Min	0	10	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	57.14%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.79	25.57	-7.79
SD	7.34	13.69	13.45
CV	0.41	0.54	—
Max	38	48	+11
Min	7	3	-27

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+0.4
Allowed	0.66	-0.4
Differential	0.88	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts	13	10.33	+2.67
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9.5	7.01	+2.49
3	Dallas Cowboys	12	10.53	+1.47
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	8.66	+1.34
5	Minnesota Vikings	8	6.86	+1.14

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	2	4.68	-2.68
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.5	4.95	-2.45
3	Green Bay Packers	6.5	8.60	-2.10
4	Detroit Lions	5	6.76	-1.76
5	New Orleans Saints	4.5	5.68	-1.18

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	Oct 20 – Dec 8	1 in 56
2	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 20 – Nov 10	1 in 41
3	Baltimore Colts	8	Oct 27 – Dec 15	1 in 20
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 18
5	New York Giants	4	Sep 15 – Oct 6	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	11	Sep 15 – Nov 24	1 in 160
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 17
3	Green Bay Packers	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 11
4	Minnesota Vikings	3	Oct 13 – Oct 27	1 in 11
5	Los Angeles Rams	2	Dec 8 – Dec 15	1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	94.76%	4.48%	0.65%	0.11%
Washington Redskins	2.21%	38.60%	33.86%	25.33%
New Orleans Saints	2.16%	37.21%	35.45%	25.18%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.87%	19.71%	30.04%	49.38%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	57.79%	24.38%	12.10%	5.73%
Minnesota Vikings	16.79%	28.75%	29.16%	25.29%
Detroit Lions	15.55%	26.38%	29.74%	28.33%
Chicago Bears	9.87%	20.49%	29.00%	40.65%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	60.76%	24.55%	11.36%	3.33%
St. Louis Cardinals	19.61%	33.66%	31.64%	15.08%
New York Giants	16.61%	32.28%	34.63%	16.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.02%	9.51%	22.38%	65.10%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Colts	56.69%	37.49%	5.76%	0.06%
Los Angeles Rams	40.58%	50.30%	9.01%	0.11%
San Francisco 49ers	2.73%	12.07%	79.54%	5.66%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.13%	5.70%	94.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Dallas Cowboys	70.79%	21.00%	5.10%	2.00%	0.73%	0.25%	0.10%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.91%	39.65%	19.83%	10.48%	6.15%	2.99%	1.55%	0.45%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.01%	15.03%	21.95%	19.72%	16.09%	11.48%	7.63%	4.08%
New York Giants	3.88%	12.86%	21.41%	19.80%	17.07%	12.11%	8.33%	4.53%
New Orleans Saints	0.98%	4.24%	11.15%	14.99%	17.02%	19.13%	16.69%	15.81%
Washington Redskins	0.84%	3.55%	10.52%	15.90%	17.47%	19.30%	17.34%	15.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.33%	2.36%	5.56%	8.71%	13.31%	17.18%	25.30%	27.26%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.26%	1.29%	4.48%	8.39%	12.17%	17.57%	23.06%	32.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Baltimore Colts	48.46%	25.47%	15.65%	6.34%	2.73%	1.07%	0.25%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	33.57%	28.02%	21.37%	9.84%	4.51%	2.11%	0.53%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	11.19%	25.20%	24.21%	17.78%	10.62%	6.83%	3.88%	0.30%
Minnesota Vikings	2.12%	6.94%	11.66%	19.36%	19.55%	19.49%	17.73%	3.15%
Detroit Lions	1.89%	6.40%	10.79%	18.08%	19.50%	19.90%	19.88%	3.56%
San Francisco 49ers	1.78%	4.12%	8.82%	14.37%	24.08%	26.11%	16.64%	4.08%
Chicago Bears	0.99%	3.83%	7.45%	14.02%	17.96%	21.54%	28.96%	5.25%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.22%	1.05%	2.96%	12.13%	83.58%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Dallas Cowboys	33.27%	28.68%	14.50%	10.24%	5.19%	3.46%	1.76%	1.24%	0.67%	0.45%	0.24%	0.15%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Colts	30.00%	22.35%	17.09%	10.46%	8.23%	4.46%	3.07%	1.70%	1.23%	0.65%	0.43%	0.19%	0.11%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	19.62%	18.46%	17.98%	13.20%	11.13%	6.77%	4.81%	3.02%	2.09%	1.26%	0.80%	0.45%	0.24%	0.13%	0.03%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.25%	10.30%	13.42%	17.37%	12.72%	11.68%	7.52%	6.40%	4.37%	3.72%	2.29%	1.72%	1.11%	0.77%	0.28%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	5.89%	9.13%	14.41%	13.83%	13.72%	10.19%	9.24%	6.54%	5.30%	3.81%	3.11%	2.10%	1.46%	0.85%	0.31%	0.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.96%	2.22%	4.12%	6.82%	8.10%	10.68%	9.71%	10.89%	9.10%	9.39%	7.55%	6.94%	5.52%	4.19%	2.84%	0.97%
New York Giants	0.92%	2.09%	3.72%	6.02%	7.54%	10.19%	9.87%	10.88%	9.26%	9.73%	7.95%	7.34%	5.80%	4.59%	3.10%	1.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.94%	1.83%	3.79%	5.19%	7.47%	8.03%	10.33%	9.31%	10.30%	8.83%	9.46%	7.74%	7.23%	5.47%	2.78%	1.31%
Detroit Lions	0.83%	1.64%	3.67%	4.66%	6.90%	7.69%	9.83%	9.03%	10.21%	8.96%	9.55%	8.19%	8.13%	6.02%	3.18%	1.51%
San Francisco 49ers	0.64%	1.34%	2.65%	3.77%	5.74%	6.71%	8.76%	9.19%	11.57%	10.46%	11.02%	9.49%	7.50%	6.08%	3.36%	1.72%
Chicago Bears	0.41%	0.82%	2.10%	3.01%	4.67%	5.66%	7.89%	7.85%	9.50%	9.34%	10.59%	10.05%	10.92%	9.54%	5.19%	2.48%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.48%	1.00%	2.16%	3.13%	5.14%	5.67%	7.63%	7.78%	9.36%	9.55%	11.10%	10.67%	11.02%	10.50%	4.69%
Washington Redskins	0.09%	0.41%	0.84%	1.77%	2.91%	4.82%	5.54%	7.71%	8.03%	9.62%	9.85%	11.40%	11.08%	11.25%	10.10%	4.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.03%	0.16%	0.44%	0.91%	1.45%	2.53%	3.16%	4.44%	5.25%	7.23%	8.26%	10.51%	12.96%	16.02%	16.26%	10.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.10%	0.27%	0.59%	1.06%	1.94%	2.70%	3.92%	4.85%	6.48%	7.88%	10.25%	12.34%	15.57%	20.02%	12.01%
Atlanta Falcons	-	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.14%	0.25%	0.48%	0.72%	1.48%	2.36%	4.85%	8.43%	22.02%	59.17%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	70.79%	21.00%	8.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.91%	39.65%	41.45%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.01%	15.03%	80.95%
New York Giants	3.88%	12.86%	83.26%
New Orleans Saints	0.98%	4.24%	94.77%
Washington Redskins	0.84%	3.55%	95.60%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.33%	2.36%	97.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.26%	1.29%	98.45%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	48.46%	25.47%	26.07%
Los Angeles Rams	33.57%	28.02%	38.41%
Green Bay Packers	11.19%	25.20%	63.61%
Minnesota Vikings	2.12%	6.94%	90.93%
Detroit Lions	1.89%	6.40%	91.71%
San Francisco 49ers	1.78%	4.12%	94.10%
Chicago Bears	0.99%	3.83%	95.18%
Atlanta Falcons	<0.01%	0.01%	99.99%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

-8.93%

No Edge

43.75%3.57%52.68%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -31.10 Elo pts.

18 Elo

0.056 points per Elo point

050

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.50 points

Lean Home

-8-1.73+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th · Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.9

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

36%

Baltimore Colts, 1st of 16

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

71.1%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.36 · As Expected: 1.36 to 1.87 · Elevated: 1.87 to 2.55 · High Variance: 2.55 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.06 · Close: 2.06 to 2.79 · Off Target: 2.79 to 3.64 · Well Off Target: 3.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 16 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 16 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.8 · As Expected: 0.8 to 1.92 · Several Outliers: 1.92 to 3.52 · Many Outliers: 3.52 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.86 · As Expected: 0.86 to 1.43 · More Than Expected: 1.43 to 2.28 · Far More Than Expected: 2.28 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.64 wins

As Expected

01.704

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.44

Pinpoint

02.435

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.88%

99.17%

Baltimore Colts

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.12%

9.73%

Pittsburgh Steelers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 16

As Expected

01.68

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 4

Fewer Than Expected

01.14

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.15

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

78%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

38%

Routine

0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Predictable

00.201

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.64

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Chalk Held

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.14 · Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.28 · Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.58

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.22

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.073

Within Noise

00.1420.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	73.93%	54.33%	35.70%
Dallas Cowboys	91.79%	63.60%	30.59%
Los Angeles Rams	61.59%	28.94%	15.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	58.55%	23.87%	9.22%
Green Bay Packers	36.39%	10.64%	4.16%
St. Louis Cardinals	19.05%	6.82%	2.43%
Minnesota Vikings	9.07%	2.43%	0.87%
New York Giants	16.74%	3.66%	0.75%
San Francisco 49ers	5.90%	1.53%	0.45%
Chicago Bears	4.82%	0.96%	0.26%
Detroit Lions	8.29%	1.17%	0.24%
New Orleans Saints	5.23%	0.77%	0.11%
Washington Redskins	4.40%	0.78%	0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.55%	0.25%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.69%	0.26%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%	-	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)		37.1%52.22%	82.4%0.81%	72.2%2.18%	82.4%0.36%	85.8%0.19%	55.4%1.86%	79.1%0.93%
Dallas Cowboys	62.9%52.22%		88.6%3.84%	81.4%13.43%	88.7%0.98%	92.2%2.35%	67.8%16.04%	86.5%2.93%
New Orleans Saints	17.6%0.81%	11.4%3.84%		38.6%0.28%	31.2%0.02%	65.2%0.02%	19.9%0.20%	47.2%0.05%
New York Giants	27.8%2.18%	18.6%13.43%	61.4%0.28%		61.6%0.07%	62.7%0.05%	35.1%0.55%	61.3%0.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	17.6%0.36%	11.3%0.98%	68.8%0.02%	38.4%0.07%		60.0%0.01%	21.9%0.10%	28.6%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.2%0.19%	7.8%2.35%	34.8%0.02%	37.3%0.05%	40.0%0.01%		18.9%0.04%	25.0%0.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	44.6%1.86%	32.2%16.04%	80.1%0.20%	64.9%0.55%	78.1%0.10%	81.1%0.04%		74.6%0.26%
Washington Redskins	20.9%0.93%	13.5%2.93%	52.8%0.05%	38.7%0.19%	71.4%<0.01%	75.0%0.03%	25.4%0.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Colts	100.0%<0.01%		86.5%2.62%	90.6%4.53%	78.4%20.72%	66.2%38.47%	81.1%5.00%	85.3%2.57%
Chicago Bears		13.5%2.62%		70.0%0.04%	33.8%0.26%	23.7%1.73%	47.3%0.06%	50.9%0.11%
Detroit Lions	100.0%<0.01%	9.4%4.53%	30.0%0.04%		29.4%0.45%	16.8%2.95%	32.0%0.10%	31.9%0.22%
Green Bay Packers	100.0%<0.01%	21.6%20.72%	66.2%0.26%	70.6%0.45%		35.8%13.48%	51.2%0.49%	60.0%0.98%
Los Angeles Rams	100.0%<0.01%	33.8%38.47%	76.3%1.73%	83.2%2.95%	64.2%13.48%		68.0%3.18%	74.9%1.79%
Minnesota Vikings		18.9%5.00%	52.7%0.06%	68.0%0.10%	48.8%0.49%	32.0%3.18%		54.3%0.23%
San Francisco 49ers		14.7%2.57%	49.1%0.11%	68.1%0.22%	40.0%0.98%	25.1%1.79%	45.7%0.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	29.0%12.91%	68.7%0.22%	80.1%0.30%	57.5%2.58%	43.5%6.89%	58.4%0.59%	68.7%0.36%
Dallas Cowboys	39.0%34.57%	76.9%0.63%	83.6%0.71%	66.1%6.65%	53.1%18.53%	69.8%1.53%	74.6%0.98%
New Orleans Saints	10.9%0.42%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	20.5%0.08%	14.5%0.22%	15.8%0.02%	50.0%0.01%
New York Giants	14.9%2.03%	54.8%0.03%	51.5%0.03%	31.9%0.41%	22.1%1.02%	45.3%0.09%	45.8%0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.9%0.14%		60.0%<0.01%	22.6%0.03%	13.4%0.07%	40.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.6%0.14%	50.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.03%	9.6%0.07%	12.5%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	26.8%3.71%	65.3%0.07%	66.3%0.10%	54.3%0.78%	39.3%1.89%	56.2%0.17%	63.8%0.09%
Washington Redskins	10.3%0.42%	50.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.01%	30.4%0.07%	13.1%0.24%	15.0%0.02%	13.3%0.01%
Baltimore Colts								71.0%12.91%	61.0%34.57%	89.1%0.42%	85.1%2.03%	91.1%0.14%	90.4%0.14%	73.2%3.71%	89.7%0.42%
Chicago Bears								31.3%0.22%	23.1%0.63%	66.7%<0.01%	45.2%0.03%		50.0%<0.01%	34.7%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions								19.9%0.30%	16.4%0.71%	66.7%<0.01%	48.5%0.03%	40.0%<0.01%	75.0%<0.01%	33.7%0.10%	63.6%0.01%
Green Bay Packers								42.5%2.58%	33.9%6.65%	79.5%0.08%	68.1%0.41%	77.4%0.03%	100.0%0.03%	45.7%0.78%	69.6%0.07%
Los Angeles Rams								56.5%6.89%	46.9%18.53%	85.5%0.22%	77.9%1.02%	86.6%0.07%	90.4%0.07%	60.7%1.89%	86.9%0.24%
Minnesota Vikings								41.6%0.59%	30.2%1.53%	84.2%0.02%	54.7%0.09%	60.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	43.8%0.17%	85.0%0.02%
San Francisco 49ers								31.3%0.36%	25.4%0.98%	50.0%0.01%	54.2%0.05%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	36.2%0.09%	86.7%0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	66.21%	43.01%
Dallas Cowboys	62.62%	27.25%
Los Angeles Rams	33.79%	17.29%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.38%	12.44%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)		37.4%100.00%
Dallas Cowboys	62.6%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Colts		66.2%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams	33.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Los Angeles Rams	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)	28.9%24.81%	41.9%12.57%
Dallas Cowboys	38.7%41.40%	52.9%21.22%
Baltimore Colts			71.1%24.81%	61.3%41.40%
Los Angeles Rams			58.1%12.57%	47.1%21.22%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Baltimore Colts 43.01% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

58.99%

Win Prob

61.28%

Dallas Cowboys 27.25% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

58.81%

Win Prob

38.72%

Los Angeles Rams 17.29% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

57.79%

Win Prob

47.10%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12.44% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

57.66%

Win Prob

28.91%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1968-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-47	1342.55	1458.30	31.88%	63.54%	-34.98	0-1
1968-09-22	Baltimore Colts	L 20-28	1307.57	1628.88	12.99%	84.44%	-6.27	0-2
1968-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-28	1301.30	1489.85	23.76%	72.30%	-15.94	0-3
1968-10-06	Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1285.36	1580.40	14.73%	82.44%	-14.03	0-4
1968-10-13	New York Giants	W 24-21	1271.33	1572.07	14.33%	82.89%	+23.98	1-4
1968-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-27	1295.31	1692.66	8.90%	89.21%	-5.42	1-5
1968-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-30	1289.89	1526.94	19.24%	77.33%	-15.90	1-6
1968-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-41	1273.99	1359.19	35.72%	59.49%	-27.69	1-7
1968-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1246.30	1668.47	7.84%	90.46%	-3.49	1-8
1968-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1242.81	1504.31	17.22%	79.60%	+23.11	2-8
1968-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 12-17	1265.92	1515.26	18.20%	78.49%	-7.01	2-9
1968-12-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-44	1258.91	1764.84	5.04%	93.80%	-5.57	2-10
1968-12-08	Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1253.34	1416.77	26.39%	69.43%	-18.87	2-11
1968-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-14	1234.47	1503.80	16.61%	80.29%	-4.04	2-12
1968-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1607.36	1476.63	65.45%	30.08%	+21.52	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-20	1628.88	1307.57	84.44%	12.99%	+6.27	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-7	1635.15	1402.08	76.94%	19.58%	+19.70	3-0
1968-10-06	Chicago Bears	W 28-7	1654.85	1469.38	71.96%	24.07%	+19.11	4-0
1968-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-14	1673.96	1488.49	71.96%	24.08%	+22.07	5-0
1968-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-30	1696.03	1487.31	74.47%	21.79%	-39.63	5-1
1968-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-10	1656.40	1698.07	41.57%	53.44%	+37.61	6-1
1968-11-03	@ New York Giants	W 26-0	1694.01	1518.28	70.86%	25.08%	+22.17	7-1
1968-11-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1716.18	1491.62	76.10%	20.33%	+14.47	8-1
1968-11-17	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-0	1730.65	1536.10	72.96%	23.16%	+20.84	9-1
1968-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-9	1751.49	1547.84	73.94%	22.28%	+13.35	10-1
1968-12-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 44-0	1764.84	1258.91	93.80%	5.04%	+5.57	11-1
1968-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1770.41	1587.67	71.65%	24.35%	+15.22	12-1
1968-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-24	1785.63	1691.88	60.64%	34.62%	+12.00	13-1
1968-09-15	Washington Redskins	L 28-38	1527.69	1487.88	53.17%	41.83%	-28.71	0-1
1968-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-42	1498.98	1434.68	56.62%	38.48%	-62.49	0-2
1968-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1436.49	1534.96	34.02%	61.27%	+32.89	1-2
1968-10-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-28	1469.38	1654.85	24.07%	71.96%	-19.11	1-3
1968-10-13	Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1450.27	1490.86	41.72%	53.29%	-30.56	1-4
1968-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-16	1419.71	1386.11	52.29%	42.70%	+26.55	2-4
1968-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-24	1446.26	1499.93	39.92%	55.13%	+13.30	3-4
1968-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1459.56	1620.83	26.62%	69.18%	+20.23	4-4
1968-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-19	1479.79	1501.97	44.31%	50.66%	+24.52	5-4
1968-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-16	1504.31	1242.81	79.60%	17.22%	-23.10	5-5
1968-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-34	1481.21	1662.31	24.52%	71.47%	-23.66	5-6
1968-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-17	1457.55	1377.49	58.79%	36.39%	+15.44	6-6
1968-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-16	1472.99	1704.78	19.69%	76.82%	+12.91	7-6
1968-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 27-28	1485.90	1572.46	35.55%	59.67%	-6.16	7-7
1968-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-10	1530.26	1434.96	60.85%	34.42%	+22.33	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1552.59	1604.84	40.12%	54.93%	-31.77	1-1
1968-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-24	1520.82	1643.93	30.99%	64.48%	-22.81	1-2
1968-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-24	1498.01	1382.38	63.52%	31.89%	+14.64	2-2
1968-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-27	1512.65	1416.78	60.92%	34.35%	-25.34	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Baltimore Colts	W 30-20	1487.31	1696.03	21.79%	74.47%	+39.63	3-3
1968-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-7	1526.94	1289.89	77.33%	19.24%	+15.91	4-3
1968-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-21	1542.85	1529.08	49.45%	45.50%	+27.11	5-3
1968-11-10	New Orleans Saints	W 35-17	1569.96	1416.47	68.25%	27.48%	+20.22	6-3
1968-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-24	1590.18	1388.54	73.72%	22.47%	+17.82	7-3
1968-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 47-13	1608.00	1301.00	83.37%	13.91%	+13.87	8-3
1968-12-01	New York Giants	W 45-10	1621.87	1520.55	61.65%	33.66%	+34.54	9-3
1968-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1656.41	1359.54	82.59%	14.60%	+4.33	10-3
1968-12-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-27	1660.74	1554.54	62.29%	33.05%	-35.05	10-4
1968-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 59-13	1563.06	1476.45	59.68%	35.54%	+41.78	1-0
1968-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-7	1604.84	1552.59	54.93%	40.12%	+31.77	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-13	1636.61	1433.75	73.86%	22.35%	+21.88	3-0
1968-10-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1658.49	1431.08	76.38%	20.08%	+14.29	4-0
1968-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1672.78	1398.58	80.72%	16.24%	+12.47	5-0
1968-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-7	1685.25	1516.04	70.11%	25.77%	+16.10	6-0
1968-10-28	Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1701.35	1585.08	63.61%	31.81%	-35.75	6-1
1968-11-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-3	1665.60	1428.90	77.29%	19.27%	+12.43	7-1
1968-11-10	New York Giants	L 21-27	1678.03	1496.12	71.56%	24.44%	-29.55	7-2
1968-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-24	1648.48	1396.29	78.76%	17.97%	+13.83	8-2
1968-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1662.31	1481.21	71.47%	24.52%	+23.65	9-2
1968-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 29-20	1685.96	1366.24	84.33%	13.09%	+6.70	10-2
1968-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-7	1692.66	1333.52	86.99%	10.79%	+8.39	11-2
1968-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1701.05	1467.53	76.99%	19.54%	+14.30	12-2
1968-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-59	1476.45	1563.06	35.54%	59.68%	-41.77	0-1
1968-09-22	Chicago Bears	W 42-0	1434.68	1498.98	38.48%	56.62%	+62.48	1-1
1968-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-17	1497.16	1606.45	32.67%	62.70%	+26.05	2-1
1968-10-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1523.21	1502.07	50.51%	44.45%	-32.35	2-2
1968-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-10	1490.86	1450.27	53.29%	41.72%	+30.55	3-2
1968-10-20	Green Bay Packers	T 14-14	1521.41	1585.82	38.47%	56.63%	+0.75	3-2
1968-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-14	1522.16	1506.55	49.72%	45.24%	-22.53	3-3
1968-11-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1499.63	1660.46	26.67%	69.13%	-8.01	3-4
1968-11-10	Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1491.62	1716.18	20.33%	76.10%	-14.48	3-5
1968-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-13	1477.14	1529.51	40.10%	54.95%	-18.34	3-6
1968-11-24	New Orleans Saints	T 20-20	1458.80	1376.55	59.09%	36.10%	-0.94	3-6
1968-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-12	1457.86	1287.13	70.28%	25.60%	-41.09	3-7
1968-12-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-7	1416.77	1253.34	69.43%	26.39%	+18.87	4-7
1968-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-14	1435.64	1355.21	58.84%	36.34%	-33.18	4-8
1968-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-13	1628.41	1475.66	68.16%	27.56%	+19.71	1-0
1968-09-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-26	1648.12	1493.28	68.41%	27.33%	-41.67	1-1
1968-09-29	Detroit Lions	L 17-23	1606.45	1497.16	62.70%	32.67%	-26.05	1-2
1968-10-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1580.40	1285.36	82.44%	14.73%	+14.04	2-2
1968-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-16	1594.44	1684.04	35.15%	60.08%	-8.62	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	T 14-14	1585.82	1521.41	56.63%	38.47%	-0.74	2-3
1968-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-17	1585.08	1701.35	31.81%	63.61%	+35.75	3-3
1968-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1620.83	1459.56	69.18%	26.62%	-20.24	3-4
1968-11-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-14	1600.59	1509.01	60.35%	34.90%	-20.50	3-5
1968-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 29-7	1580.09	1396.24	71.78%	24.24%	+19.70	4-5
1968-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1599.79	1382.46	75.37%	20.99%	+16.22	5-5
1968-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1616.01	1502.93	63.19%	32.20%	-28.34	5-6
1968-12-07	Baltimore Colts	L 3-16	1587.67	1770.41	24.35%	71.65%	-15.21	5-7
1968-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-27	1572.46	1485.90	59.67%	35.55%	+6.16	6-7
1968-09-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-13	1602.71	1474.26	65.16%	30.35%	+17.47	1-0
1968-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-10	1620.18	1425.82	72.94%	23.18%	+23.75	2-0
1968-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-6	1643.93	1520.82	64.48%	30.99%	+22.81	3-0
1968-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-10	1666.74	1505.79	69.14%	26.66%	+17.30	4-0
1968-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-14	1684.04	1594.44	60.08%	35.15%	+8.62	5-0
1968-10-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-14	1692.66	1295.31	89.21%	8.90%	+5.41	6-0
1968-10-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1698.07	1656.40	53.44%	41.57%	-37.61	6-1
1968-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 10-7	1660.46	1499.63	69.13%	26.67%	+8.01	7-1
1968-11-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1668.47	1246.30	90.46%	7.84%	+3.49	8-1
1968-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1671.96	1477.45	72.96%	23.17%	-2.07	8-1
1968-11-24	New York Giants	W 24-21	1669.89	1529.24	66.69%	28.93%	+8.70	9-1
1968-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-3	1678.59	1534.49	67.11%	28.53%	+26.19	10-1
1968-12-08	Chicago Bears	L 16-17	1704.78	1472.99	76.82%	19.69%	-12.90	10-2
1968-12-15	Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1691.88	1785.63	34.62%	60.64%	-12.00	10-3
1968-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 47-7	1458.30	1342.55	63.54%	31.88%	+34.98	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-13	1493.28	1648.12	27.33%	68.41%	+41.68	2-0
1968-09-29	Chicago Bears	L 17-27	1534.96	1436.49	61.27%	34.02%	-32.89	2-1
1968-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1502.07	1523.21	44.45%	50.51%	+32.35	3-1
1968-10-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1534.42	1426.18	62.56%	32.80%	-18.38	3-2
1968-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1516.04	1685.25	25.77%	70.11%	-16.11	3-3
1968-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-26	1499.93	1446.26	55.13%	39.92%	-13.29	3-4
1968-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 27-14	1486.64	1402.02	59.41%	35.80%	+22.37	4-4
1968-11-10	Green Bay Packers	W 14-10	1509.01	1600.59	34.90%	60.35%	+20.50	5-4
1968-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-6	1529.51	1477.14	54.95%	40.10%	+18.33	6-4
1968-11-24	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-21	1547.84	1751.49	22.28%	73.94%	-13.35	6-5
1968-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-31	1534.49	1678.59	28.53%	67.11%	-26.20	6-6
1968-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-20	1508.29	1531.27	44.19%	50.78%	+27.48	7-6
1968-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-17	1535.77	1359.19	70.96%	24.99%	+11.46	8-6
1968-09-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-24	1434.96	1530.26	34.42%	60.85%	-22.33	0-1
1968-09-22	Washington Redskins	W 37-17	1412.63	1516.60	33.33%	62.00%	+47.04	1-1
1968-09-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-21	1459.67	1422.05	52.86%	42.14%	-9.03	1-2
1968-10-06	@ New York Giants	L 21-38	1450.64	1547.60	34.21%	61.07%	-24.46	1-3
1968-10-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1426.18	1534.42	32.80%	62.56%	+18.37	2-3
1968-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-12	1444.55	1356.73	59.84%	35.38%	+12.27	3-3
1968-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1456.82	1486.21	43.29%	51.69%	-27.92	3-4
1968-11-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-17	1428.90	1665.60	19.27%	77.29%	-12.43	3-5
1968-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-35	1416.47	1569.96	27.48%	68.25%	-20.23	3-6
1968-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-29	1396.24	1580.09	24.24%	71.78%	-19.69	3-7
1968-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	T 20-20	1376.55	1458.80	36.10%	59.09%	+0.94	3-7
1968-12-01	Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1377.49	1457.55	36.39%	58.79%	-15.44	3-8
1968-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-29	1362.05	1328.22	52.33%	42.67%	-30.97	3-9
1968-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-14	1331.08	1325.14	48.33%	46.62%	+25.33	4-9
1968-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-20	1457.61	1456.19	47.68%	47.27%	+30.37	1-0
1968-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-25	1487.98	1455.95	52.07%	42.92%	+22.21	2-0
1968-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 48-21	1510.19	1469.56	53.29%	41.72%	+37.41	3-0
1968-10-06	New Orleans Saints	W 38-21	1547.60	1450.64	61.07%	34.21%	+24.47	4-0
1968-10-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-24	1572.07	1271.33	82.89%	14.33%	-23.99	4-1
1968-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-26	1548.08	1466.43	59.00%	36.18%	-40.12	4-2
1968-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1507.96	1412.35	60.89%	34.38%	+10.32	5-2
1968-11-03	Baltimore Colts	L 0-26	1518.28	1694.01	25.08%	70.86%	-22.16	5-3
1968-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1496.12	1678.03	24.44%	71.56%	+29.55	6-3
1968-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-6	1525.67	1304.56	75.75%	20.65%	+3.57	7-3
1968-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-24	1529.24	1669.89	28.93%	66.69%	-8.69	7-4
1968-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-45	1520.55	1621.87	33.66%	61.65%	-34.54	7-5
1968-12-08	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-28	1486.01	1536.06	40.42%	54.62%	-18.48	7-6
1968-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-28	1467.53	1701.05	19.54%	76.99%	-14.30	7-7
1968-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-30	1475.66	1628.41	27.56%	68.16%	-19.71	0-1
1968-09-22	New York Giants	L 25-34	1455.95	1487.98	42.92%	52.07%	-22.20	0-2
1968-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-45	1433.75	1636.61	22.35%	73.86%	-21.88	0-3
1968-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1411.87	1432.14	44.58%	50.39%	-13.29	0-4
1968-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-34	1398.58	1672.78	16.24%	80.72%	-12.47	0-5
1968-10-20	Chicago Bears	L 16-29	1386.11	1419.71	42.70%	52.29%	-26.55	0-6
1968-10-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-6	1359.56	1344.47	49.64%	45.31%	-14.73	0-7
1968-11-03	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-45	1344.83	1514.13	25.76%	70.12%	-23.63	0-8
1968-11-10	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1321.20	1379.65	39.27%	55.80%	-16.64	0-9
1968-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 6-7	1304.56	1525.67	20.65%	75.75%	-3.56	0-10
1968-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-47	1301.00	1608.00	13.91%	83.37%	-13.87	0-11
1968-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 12-0	1287.13	1457.86	25.60%	70.28%	+41.09	1-11
1968-12-08	New Orleans Saints	W 29-17	1328.22	1362.05	42.67%	52.33%	+30.97	2-11
1968-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1359.19	1535.77	24.99%	70.96%	-11.46	2-12
1968-09-15	New York Giants	L 20-34	1456.19	1457.61	47.27%	47.68%	-30.37	0-1
1968-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-45	1425.82	1620.18	23.18%	72.94%	-23.74	0-2
1968-09-29	Baltimore Colts	L 7-41	1402.08	1635.15	19.58%	76.94%	-19.70	0-3
1968-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-31	1382.38	1498.01	31.89%	63.52%	-14.64	0-4
1968-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1367.74	1445.43	36.70%	58.46%	-11.01	0-5
1968-10-20	New Orleans Saints	L 12-16	1356.73	1444.55	35.38%	59.84%	-12.26	0-6
1968-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-3	1344.47	1359.56	45.31%	49.64%	+14.72	1-6
1968-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 41-21	1359.19	1273.99	59.49%	35.72%	+27.69	2-6
1968-11-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 28-28	1386.88	1537.76	27.77%	67.94%	+1.66	2-6
1968-11-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1388.54	1590.18	22.47%	73.72%	-17.81	2-7
1968-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-45	1370.73	1479.52	32.73%	62.63%	-23.42	2-8
1968-12-01	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-20	1347.31	1522.27	25.16%	70.77%	-13.79	2-9
1968-12-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-28	1333.52	1692.66	10.79%	86.99%	-8.38	2-10
1968-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-24	1325.14	1331.08	46.62%	48.33%	-25.34	2-11
1968-09-15	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-27	1476.63	1607.36	30.08%	65.45%	-21.52	0-1
1968-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-17	1455.11	1456.79	47.23%	47.72%	+34.74	1-1
1968-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-13	1489.85	1301.30	72.30%	23.76%	+15.94	2-1
1968-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1505.79	1666.74	26.66%	69.14%	-17.30	2-2
1968-10-13	Baltimore Colts	L 14-42	1488.49	1673.96	24.08%	71.96%	-22.06	2-3
1968-10-20	@ New York Giants	W 26-10	1466.43	1548.08	36.18%	59.00%	+40.12	3-3
1968-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1506.55	1522.16	45.24%	49.72%	+22.53	4-3
1968-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-33	1529.08	1542.85	45.50%	49.45%	-27.11	4-4
1968-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-27	1501.97	1479.79	50.66%	44.31%	-24.52	4-5
1968-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	T 20-20	1477.45	1671.96	23.17%	72.96%	+2.07	4-5
1968-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-28	1479.52	1370.73	62.63%	32.73%	+23.41	5-5
1968-12-01	Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1502.93	1616.01	32.20%	63.19%	+28.34	6-5
1968-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-30	1531.27	1508.29	50.78%	44.19%	-27.47	6-6
1968-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-12	1503.80	1234.47	80.29%	16.61%	+4.03	7-6
1968-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1474.26	1602.71	30.35%	65.16%	-17.47	0-1
1968-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-35	1456.79	1455.11	47.72%	47.23%	-34.74	0-2
1968-09-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-20	1422.05	1459.67	42.14%	52.86%	+9.03	1-2
1968-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1431.08	1658.49	20.08%	76.38%	-14.30	1-3
1968-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-21	1416.78	1512.65	34.35%	60.92%	+25.34	2-3
1968-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 41-14	1442.12	1456.44	45.42%	49.53%	+44.09	3-3
1968-10-27	New Orleans Saints	W 31-17	1486.21	1456.82	51.69%	43.29%	+27.92	4-3
1968-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-17	1514.13	1344.83	70.12%	25.76%	+23.63	5-3
1968-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 28-28	1537.76	1386.88	67.94%	27.77%	-1.66	5-3
1968-11-17	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-27	1536.10	1730.65	23.16%	72.96%	-20.84	5-4
1968-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-12	1515.26	1265.92	78.49%	18.20%	+7.01	6-4
1968-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1522.27	1347.31	70.77%	25.16%	+13.79	7-4
1968-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 28-21	1536.06	1486.01	54.62%	40.42%	+18.48	8-4
1968-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-16	1554.54	1660.74	33.05%	62.29%	+35.04	9-4
1968-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-28	1487.88	1527.69	41.83%	53.17%	+28.72	1-0
1968-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-37	1516.60	1412.63	62.00%	33.33%	-47.04	1-1
1968-09-29	@ New York Giants	L 21-48	1469.56	1510.19	41.72%	53.29%	-37.42	1-2
1968-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1432.14	1411.87	50.39%	44.58%	+13.29	2-2
1968-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-13	1445.43	1367.74	58.46%	36.70%	+11.01	3-2
1968-10-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-41	1456.44	1442.12	49.53%	45.42%	-44.09	3-3
1968-10-27	New York Giants	L 10-13	1412.35	1507.96	34.38%	60.89%	-10.33	3-4
1968-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-27	1402.02	1486.64	35.80%	59.41%	-22.37	3-5
1968-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1379.65	1321.20	55.80%	39.27%	+16.64	4-5
1968-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-44	1396.29	1648.48	17.97%	78.76%	-13.83	4-6
1968-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 7-27	1382.46	1599.79	20.99%	75.37%	-16.22	4-7
1968-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-29	1366.24	1685.96	13.09%	84.33%	-6.70	4-8
1968-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-24	1359.54	1656.41	14.60%	82.59%	-4.33	4-9
1968-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 14-3	1355.21	1435.64	36.34%	58.84%	+33.18	5-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1968-12-22	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1797.63	1547.23	80.87%	19.13%	+9.86	1-0
1968-12-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-0	1807.49	1659.55	70.09%	29.91%	+28.43	2-0
1968-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-20	1625.69	1715.35	37.38%	62.62%	+33.86	1-0
1968-12-29	Baltimore Colts	L 0-34	1659.55	1807.49	29.91%	70.09%	-28.43	1-1
1968-12-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-31	1715.35	1625.69	62.62%	37.38%	-33.85	0-1
1968-12-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-24	1547.23	1797.63	19.13%	80.87%	-9.86	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1968-10-13	14.33%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1271.33	24	New York Giants	1572.07	21
2	1968-11-17	17.22%	Atlanta Falcons	1242.81	16	@ Chicago Bears	1504.31	13
3	1968-12-08	19.69%	Chicago Bears	1472.99	17	@ Los Angeles Rams	1704.78	16
4	1968-10-20	21.79%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1487.31	30	@ Baltimore Colts	1696.03	20
5	1968-11-10	24.44%	New York Giants	1496.12	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1678.03	21
6	1968-11-28	25.60%	Philadelphia Eagles	1287.13	12	@ Detroit Lions	1457.86	0
7	1968-11-03	26.62%	Chicago Bears	1459.56	13	@ Green Bay Packers	1620.83	10
8	1968-09-22	27.33%	Minnesota Vikings	1493.28	26	@ Green Bay Packers	1648.12	13
9	1968-10-28	31.81%	Green Bay Packers	1585.08	28	@ Dallas Cowboys	1701.35	17
10	1968-12-01	32.20%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1502.93	27	Green Bay Packers	1616.01	20
11	1968-09-29	32.67%	Detroit Lions	1497.16	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1606.45	17
12	1968-10-13	32.80%	@ New Orleans Saints	1426.18	20	Minnesota Vikings	1534.42	17
13	1968-12-14	33.05%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1554.54	27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1660.74	16
14	1968-09-22	33.33%	@ New Orleans Saints	1412.63	37	Washington Redskins	1516.60	17
15	1968-09-29	34.02%	Chicago Bears	1436.49	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1534.96	17
16	1968-10-13	34.35%	St. Louis Cardinals	1416.78	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1512.65	21
17	1968-11-10	34.90%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1509.01	14	Green Bay Packers	1600.59	10
18	1968-10-20	36.18%	San Francisco 49ers	1466.43	26	@ New York Giants	1548.08	10
19	1968-12-15	36.34%	@ Washington Redskins	1355.21	14	Detroit Lions	1435.64	3
20	1968-12-21 *	37.38%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1625.69	31	Dallas Cowboys	1715.35	20
21	1968-09-22	38.48%	@ Detroit Lions	1434.68	42	Chicago Bears	1498.98	0
22	1968-10-27	39.92%	@ Chicago Bears	1446.26	26	Minnesota Vikings	1499.93	24
23	1968-10-27	41.57%	@ Baltimore Colts	1656.40	27	Los Angeles Rams	1698.07	10
24	1968-09-15	41.83%	Washington Redskins	1487.88	38	@ Chicago Bears	1527.69	28
25	1968-09-29	42.14%	St. Louis Cardinals	1422.05	21	@ New Orleans Saints	1459.67	20

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1968-09-22	62.49	@ Detroit Lions	42	1434.68	38.48%	Chicago Bears	0	1498.98	56.62%
2	1968-09-22	47.04	@ New Orleans Saints	37	1412.63	33.33%	Washington Redskins	17	1516.60	62.00%
3	1968-10-20	44.09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	41	1442.12	45.42%	Washington Redskins	14	1456.44	49.53%
4	1968-09-15	41.78	@ Dallas Cowboys	59	1563.06	59.68%	Detroit Lions	13	1476.45	35.54%
5	1968-09-22	41.68	Minnesota Vikings	26	1493.28	27.33%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1648.12	68.41%
6	1968-11-28	41.09	Philadelphia Eagles	12	1287.13	25.60%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1457.86	70.28%
7	1968-10-20	40.12	San Francisco 49ers	26	1466.43	36.18%	@ New York Giants	10	1548.08	59.00%
8	1968-10-20	39.63	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1487.31	21.79%	@ Baltimore Colts	20	1696.03	74.47%
9	1968-10-27	37.61	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1656.40	41.57%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1698.07	53.44%
10	1968-09-29	37.42	@ New York Giants	48	1510.19	53.29%	Washington Redskins	21	1469.56	41.72%
11	1968-10-28	35.75	Green Bay Packers	28	1585.08	31.81%	@ Dallas Cowboys	17	1701.35	63.61%
12	1968-12-14	35.05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	27	1554.54	33.05%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1660.74	62.29%
13	1968-09-14	34.98	@ Minnesota Vikings	47	1458.30	63.54%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1342.55	31.88%
14	1968-09-22	34.74	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1455.11	47.23%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1456.79	47.72%
15	1968-12-01	34.54	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1621.87	61.65%	New York Giants	10	1520.55	33.66%
16	1968-12-21 *	33.86	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	31	1625.69	37.38%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1715.35	62.62%
17	1968-12-15	33.18	@ Washington Redskins	14	1355.21	36.34%	Detroit Lions	3	1435.64	58.84%
18	1968-09-29	32.89	Chicago Bears	27	1436.49	34.02%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1534.96	61.27%
19	1968-10-06	32.35	@ Minnesota Vikings	24	1502.07	44.45%	Detroit Lions	10	1523.21	50.51%
20	1968-09-22	31.77	@ Dallas Cowboys	28	1604.84	54.93%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1552.59	40.12%
21	1968-12-08	30.97	@ Philadelphia Eagles	29	1328.22	42.67%	New Orleans Saints	17	1362.05	52.33%
22	1968-10-13	30.56	Detroit Lions	28	1490.86	53.29%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1450.27	41.72%
23	1968-09-15	30.37	New York Giants	34	1457.61	47.68%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1456.19	47.27%
24	1968-11-10	29.55	New York Giants	27	1496.12	24.44%	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1678.03	71.56%
25	1968-09-15	28.72	Washington Redskins	38	1487.88	41.83%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1527.69	53.17%