1965 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

9th Title

Last Title: 1962

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

9th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1964

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.37 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.63 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Pittsburgh Steelers

3.35 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.35 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	3	.786	-	363	325	+38	9.37	+1.63
2	Dallas Cowboys	7	7	.500	4	325	280	+45	6.76	+0.24
3	New York Giants	7	7	.500	4	270	338	-68	5.55	+1.45
4	Washington Redskins	6	8	.429	5	257	301	-44	6.22	-0.22
5	Philadelphia Eagles	5	9	.357	6	363	359	+4	6.68	-1.68
6	St. Louis Cardinals	5	9	.357	6	296	309	-13	8.27	-3.27
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	12	.143	9	202	397	-195	5.35	-3.35

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	3	1	.750	-	316	224	+92	9.23	+1.27
2	Baltimore Colts Playoffs	10	3	1	.750	-	389	284	+105	9.07	+1.43
3	Chicago Bears	9	5	0	.643	1.5	409	275	+134	6.63	+2.37
4	San Francisco 49ers	7	6	1	.536	3	421	402	+19	6.53	+0.97
5	Minnesota Vikings	7	7	0	.500	3.5	383	403	-20	6.74	+0.26
6	Detroit Lions	6	7	1	.464	4	257	295	-38	7.06	-0.56
7	Los Angeles Rams	4	10	0	.286	6.5	269	328	-59	4.55	-0.55

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Green Bay Packers 13

Baltimore Colts 10

Dec 26

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 23

Cleveland Browns (1st) 12

Jan 2

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1629	10.5	9.07	+1.43	81.56%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Green Bay Packers	West	1625	10.5	9.23	+1.27	79.29%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Chicago Bears	West	1614	9	6.63	+2.37	95.51%	0	4	5	6	8	9	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1577	11	9.37	+1.63	90.84%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
Minnesota Vikings	West	1519	7	6.74	+0.26	70.20%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	1507	7	6.76	+0.24	69.66%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	West	1499	7.5	6.53	+0.97	74.21%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Detroit Lions	West	1479	6.5	7.06	-0.56	42.13%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	East	1462	6	6.22	-0.22	60.59%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1455	5	6.68	-1.68	29.48%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
Los Angeles Rams	West	1450	4	4.55	-0.55	54.34%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
New York Giants	East	1438	7	5.55	+1.45	88.22%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1434	5	8.27	-3.27	7.59%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1311	2	5.35	-3.35	6.28%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	-
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	-	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	-	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-
Detroit Lions	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.02%	1.02%	0.51%	0.51%	1.53%	—	—	4.59%
7–13	1.02%	1.02%	3.06%	4.59%	2.55%	2.55%	1.53%	16.33%
14–20	0.51%	3.06%	5.10%	7.14%	0.51%	4.59%	0.51%	21.43%
21–27	0.51%	4.59%	7.14%	7.14%	3.06%	1.53%	2.55%	26.53%
28–34	1.53%	2.55%	0.51%	3.06%	4.08%	1.53%	—	13.27%
35–41	—	2.55%	4.59%	1.53%	1.53%	1.02%	1.02%	12.24%
42+	—	1.53%	0.51%	2.55%	—	1.02%	—	5.61%
Total	4.59%	16.33%	21.43%	26.53%	13.27%	12.24%	5.61%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.06	23.06	+0.00
SD	11.18	11.18	16.40
CV	0.48	0.48	—
Max	61	61	+41
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.79	20.29	+7.50
SD	10.52	8.81	13.35
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+31
Min	0	7	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.21	19.64	+9.57
SD	13.27	13.74	18.30
CV	0.45	0.70	—
Max	61	52	+41
Min	13	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	28.57%	7.14%	—	14.29%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.93	23.21	+2.71
SD	10.39	11.41	18.24
CV	0.40	0.49	—
Max	42	49	+24
Min	7	7	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	20.00	+3.21
SD	10.07	9.49	12.94
CV	0.43	0.47	—
Max	39	35	+29
Min	3	2	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.36	21.07	-2.71
SD	9.29	11.43	15.20
CV	0.51	0.54	—
Max	35	38	+24
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.57	16.00	+6.57
SD	12.35	8.42	13.78
CV	0.55	0.53	—
Max	42	31	+32
Min	6	3	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.21	23.43	-4.21
SD	12.44	12.97	18.05
CV	0.65	0.55	—
Max	42	45	+35
Min	0	3	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	14.29%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.36	28.79	-1.43
SD	9.05	13.11	16.01
CV	0.33	0.46	—
Max	42	45	+26
Min	13	7	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.29	24.14	-4.86
SD	9.68	11.82	18.02
CV	0.50	0.49	—
Max	35	40	+25
Min	2	10	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	28.57%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.93	25.64	+0.29
SD	9.33	8.51	12.38
CV	0.36	0.33	—
Max	47	38	+34
Min	14	13	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.43	28.36	-13.93
SD	5.63	10.46	13.39
CV	0.39	0.37	—
Max	22	47	+9
Min	3	13	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	—	—	14.29%	57.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.07	28.71	+1.36
SD	11.83	12.09	17.56
CV	0.39	0.42	—
Max	52	61	+28
Min	10	14	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.14	22.07	-0.93
SD	11.45	8.55	16.28
CV	0.54	0.39	—
Max	49	34	+36
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.36	21.50	-3.14
SD	10.05	10.22	16.85
CV	0.55	0.48	—
Max	35	38	+28
Min	7	3	-31

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.40	+0.2
Allowed	0.26	-0.2
Differential	0.69	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	9	6.63	+2.37
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	9.37	+1.63
3	New York Giants	7	5.55	+1.45
4	Baltimore Colts	10.5	9.07	+1.43
5	Green Bay Packers	10.5	9.23	+1.27

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	5.35	-3.35
2	St. Louis Cardinals	5	8.27	-3.27
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	6.68	-1.68
4	Detroit Lions	6.5	7.06	-0.56
5	Los Angeles Rams	4	4.55	-0.55

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	3	Nov 28 – Dec 12	1 in 91
2	Baltimore Colts	8	Oct 3 – Nov 21	1 in 29
3	Chicago Bears	5	Nov 14 – Dec 12	1 in 28
4	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 24 – Nov 7	1 in 17
5	Green Bay Packers	6	Sep 19 – Oct 24	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	6	Nov 14 – Dec 19	1 in 183
2	Los Angeles Rams	8	Oct 3 – Nov 21	1 in 33
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	Nov 7 – Dec 19	1 in 32
4	Dallas Cowboys	5	Oct 4 – Oct 31	1 in 26
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Oct 17 – Nov 7	1 in 22

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.01%	23.50%	11.63%	6.25%	3.44%	1.58%	0.58%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.93%	29.19%	18.97%	12.19%	7.79%	4.73%	2.21%
Dallas Cowboys	7.38%	13.86%	17.89%	18.39%	16.75%	14.55%	11.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.64%	13.16%	17.77%	18.39%	17.48%	15.09%	11.47%
Washington Redskins	4.14%	9.48%	14.40%	17.58%	18.86%	18.77%	16.77%
New York Giants	2.14%	5.83%	10.17%	14.11%	18.20%	22.37%	27.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.76%	4.98%	9.17%	13.09%	17.49%	22.90%	30.60%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	39.55%	27.38%	15.62%	9.08%	5.11%	2.52%	0.74%
Baltimore Colts	37.11%	27.51%	16.29%	9.70%	5.60%	2.88%	0.91%
Detroit Lions	7.62%	13.65%	18.37%	19.04%	17.84%	14.95%	8.53%
Minnesota Vikings	5.58%	10.62%	15.89%	18.82%	19.65%	18.46%	10.98%
Chicago Bears	5.10%	10.03%	15.84%	18.73%	19.92%	18.69%	11.70%
San Francisco 49ers	4.69%	9.48%	14.71%	18.09%	20.02%	20.20%	12.81%
Los Angeles Rams	0.35%	1.34%	3.27%	6.54%	11.86%	22.30%	54.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	26.52%	22.58%	13.75%	11.40%	7.09%	5.76%	3.86%	3.10%	2.12%	1.57%	1.05%	0.69%	0.36%	0.16%
Green Bay Packers	23.88%	18.61%	15.53%	11.26%	8.84%	6.32%	5.01%	3.37%	2.65%	1.84%	1.31%	0.78%	0.44%	0.17%
Baltimore Colts	22.04%	17.75%	15.57%	11.37%	9.22%	6.70%	5.33%	3.79%	3.04%	2.06%	1.47%	0.94%	0.51%	0.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.29%	13.12%	13.23%	14.05%	10.39%	9.68%	6.98%	6.34%	4.58%	3.98%	2.94%	2.25%	1.35%	0.82%
Detroit Lions	3.47%	5.00%	7.37%	7.70%	9.42%	9.21%	9.72%	8.90%	9.12%	7.97%	7.46%	6.28%	4.89%	3.49%
Dallas Cowboys	2.46%	4.24%	5.73%	7.40%	7.99%	9.13%	8.93%	9.53%	8.66%	8.89%	7.96%	7.61%	6.64%	4.84%
Minnesota Vikings	2.65%	3.66%	5.62%	6.19%	8.24%	8.37%	9.47%	9.35%	9.74%	9.08%	8.95%	7.89%	6.22%	4.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.19%	3.82%	5.29%	7.14%	7.74%	8.99%	8.92%	9.72%	9.09%	9.21%	8.37%	7.81%	6.72%	5.00%
Chicago Bears	2.22%	3.35%	5.24%	5.98%	8.17%	8.15%	9.55%	9.23%	9.88%	9.18%	9.15%	8.25%	6.57%	5.07%
San Francisco 49ers	2.00%	3.08%	4.84%	5.68%	7.58%	7.84%	9.06%	9.12%	10.02%	9.39%	9.63%	8.77%	7.06%	5.94%
Washington Redskins	1.27%	2.40%	3.57%	5.17%	6.16%	7.56%	8.04%	9.22%	9.29%	10.23%	9.84%	10.14%	9.35%	7.75%
New York Giants	0.46%	1.20%	1.99%	3.19%	4.08%	5.49%	6.32%	7.49%	8.30%	9.97%	10.87%	12.48%	13.64%	14.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.44%	0.95%	1.68%	2.66%	3.54%	4.83%	5.71%	7.00%	7.85%	9.78%	10.96%	12.91%	15.09%	16.61%
Los Angeles Rams	0.11%	0.26%	0.59%	0.82%	1.54%	1.97%	3.10%	3.85%	5.67%	6.85%	10.06%	13.18%	21.15%	30.84%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.01%	46.99%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.93%	75.07%
Dallas Cowboys	7.38%	92.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.64%	93.36%
Washington Redskins	4.14%	95.86%
New York Giants	2.14%	97.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.76%	98.24%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	39.55%	60.45%
Baltimore Colts	37.11%	62.89%
Detroit Lions	7.62%	92.38%
Minnesota Vikings	5.58%	94.42%
Chicago Bears	5.10%	94.90%
San Francisco 49ers	4.69%	95.31%
Los Angeles Rams	0.35%	99.65%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+0.00%

No Edge

48.98%2.04%48.98%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.

27 Elo

0.037 points per Elo point

080

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.53 points

Lean Road

-8+0.00+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

5.2

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

26%

Green Bay Packers, 1st of 14

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.43 · As Expected: 1.43 to 1.97 · Elevated: 1.97 to 2.69 · High Variance: 2.69 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.35 · Close: 2.35 to 3.18 · Off Target: 3.18 to 4.15 · Well Off Target: 4.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.7 · As Expected: 0.7 to 1.68 · Several Outliers: 1.68 to 3.08 · Many Outliers: 3.08 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.81 · As Expected: 0.81 to 1.34 · More Than Expected: 1.34 to 2.15 · Far More Than Expected: 2.15 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.70 wins

As Expected

01.794

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.50

02.766

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.43%

95.51%

Chicago Bears

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.57%

6.28%

Pittsburgh Steelers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 14

As Expected

01.47

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.79

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

86%

Lopsided

50%86%100%

Close Games

Expected

17%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Routine

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.25

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.92

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.44

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

As Expected

0%37%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%31%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.15 · Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.3 · Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.24

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.07

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.097

Within Noise

00.1500.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	39.55%	25.57%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.01%	24.48%
Baltimore Colts	37.11%	24.19%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.93%	6.94%
Detroit Lions	7.62%	3.45%
Chicago Bears	5.10%	3.22%
Minnesota Vikings	5.58%	2.86%
Dallas Cowboys	7.38%	2.77%
San Francisco 49ers	4.69%	2.20%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.64%	2.04%
Washington Redskins	4.14%	1.26%
New York Giants	2.14%	0.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.76%	0.27%
Los Angeles Rams	0.35%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	42.7%19.76%	43.7%2.86%	62.9%4.15%	42.9%20.98%	70.7%0.17%	59.2%2.56%	60.5%2.54%
Dallas Cowboys	32.2%2.95%	35.4%0.41%	56.4%0.61%	35.5%2.58%	68.4%0.04%	48.4%0.50%	51.2%0.29%
New York Giants	25.3%0.79%	28.1%0.10%	47.0%0.17%	25.3%0.88%	50.0%<0.01%	35.7%0.10%	41.1%0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	27.0%2.27%	25.6%0.39%	43.2%0.40%	28.5%2.75%	55.6%0.03%	41.4%0.45%	49.9%0.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.0%0.75%	18.3%0.11%	21.3%0.18%	14.3%0.54%	20.0%0.01%	18.5%0.11%	19.4%0.06%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.3%9.23%	27.2%0.97%	43.5%1.88%	25.0%10.07%	45.2%0.07%	37.9%1.57%	41.9%1.14%
Washington Redskins	27.7%1.36%	27.3%0.26%	45.8%0.24%	26.1%1.75%	60.0%0.02%	44.7%0.29%	45.9%0.22%
Baltimore Colts								57.3%19.76%	67.8%2.95%	74.7%0.79%	73.0%2.27%	86.0%0.75%	75.7%9.23%	72.3%1.36%
Chicago Bears								56.3%2.86%	64.6%0.41%	71.9%0.10%	74.4%0.39%	81.7%0.11%	72.8%0.97%	72.7%0.26%
Detroit Lions								37.1%4.15%	43.6%0.61%	53.0%0.17%	56.8%0.40%	78.7%0.18%	56.5%1.88%	54.2%0.24%
Green Bay Packers								57.1%20.98%	64.5%2.58%	74.7%0.88%	71.5%2.75%	85.7%0.54%	75.0%10.07%	73.9%1.75%
Los Angeles Rams								29.3%0.17%	31.6%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	44.4%0.03%	80.0%0.01%	54.8%0.07%	40.0%0.02%
Minnesota Vikings								40.8%2.56%	51.6%0.50%	64.3%0.10%	58.6%0.45%	81.5%0.11%	62.1%1.57%	55.3%0.29%
San Francisco 49ers								39.5%2.54%	48.8%0.29%	58.9%0.10%	50.1%0.34%	80.6%0.06%	58.1%1.14%	54.1%0.22%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	56.85%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	43.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	43.2%100.00%
Green Bay Packers		56.8%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 56.85% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.85%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 43.15% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.15%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1965-09-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-16	1562.69	1527.18	53.65%	43.49%	+21.03	1-0
1965-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1583.72	1594.00	47.08%	50.04%	-9.03	1-1
1965-10-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1574.69	1500.34	59.09%	38.14%	+7.34	2-1
1965-10-10	Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1582.03	1564.38	51.09%	46.03%	+24.97	3-1
1965-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-7	1607.00	1430.30	72.03%	25.65%	+15.88	4-1
1965-10-24	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-20	1622.88	1385.91	78.32%	19.72%	+8.47	5-1
1965-10-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-28	1631.35	1493.94	67.37%	30.11%	+8.21	6-1
1965-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-21	1639.56	1536.48	62.97%	34.36%	+8.55	7-1
1965-11-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 41-21	1648.11	1545.85	62.86%	34.47%	+17.14	8-1
1965-11-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-24	1665.25	1449.27	76.25%	21.66%	+7.60	9-1
1965-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	T 24-24	1672.85	1499.05	71.70%	25.97%	-1.24	9-1
1965-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 0-13	1671.61	1582.42	61.11%	36.16%	-24.22	9-2
1965-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 27-42	1647.39	1602.35	55.00%	42.16%	-23.48	9-3
1965-12-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1623.91	1455.12	71.12%	26.52%	+5.10	10-3
1965-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-52	1468.49	1455.69	50.40%	46.72%	-29.46	0-1
1965-09-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 28-30	1439.03	1434.78	49.17%	47.95%	-7.69	0-2
1965-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-23	1431.34	1603.02	26.20%	71.46%	-8.74	0-3
1965-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-6	1422.60	1434.68	46.82%	50.29%	+27.78	1-3
1965-10-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 45-37	1450.38	1529.06	37.56%	59.69%	+18.57	2-3
1965-10-24	Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1468.95	1526.60	40.41%	56.77%	+33.09	3-3
1965-10-31	Green Bay Packers	W 31-10	1502.04	1648.99	28.99%	68.54%	+34.44	4-3
1965-11-07	Baltimore Colts	L 21-26	1536.48	1639.56	34.36%	62.97%	-8.55	4-4
1965-11-14	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-13	1527.93	1561.14	43.82%	53.32%	+26.95	5-4
1965-11-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1554.88	1511.49	54.77%	42.39%	+12.45	6-4
1965-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 35-14	1567.33	1425.59	67.90%	29.60%	+15.09	7-4
1965-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts	W 13-0	1582.42	1671.61	36.16%	61.11%	+24.22	8-4
1965-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 61-20	1606.64	1524.78	60.12%	37.13%	+26.43	9-4
1965-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1633.07	1499.88	66.84%	30.62%	-19.40	9-5
1965-09-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-7	1566.62	1491.06	59.26%	37.97%	+13.34	1-0
1965-09-26	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-49	1579.96	1504.67	59.22%	38.01%	-39.09	1-1
1965-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-17	1540.87	1481.63	57.00%	40.19%	+18.93	2-1
1965-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-19	1559.80	1415.36	68.23%	29.28%	+7.29	3-1
1965-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-17	1567.09	1487.00	59.88%	37.37%	+10.17	4-1
1965-10-24	@ New York Giants	W 38-14	1577.26	1431.33	68.41%	29.11%	+15.87	5-1
1965-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-27	1593.13	1515.69	59.52%	37.72%	-20.71	5-2
1965-11-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-34	1572.42	1440.90	66.63%	30.82%	+6.86	6-2
1965-11-14	New York Giants	W 34-21	1579.28	1409.65	71.22%	26.42%	+10.59	7-2
1965-11-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1589.87	1478.00	64.12%	33.24%	+9.79	8-2
1965-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-21	1599.66	1386.14	76.00%	21.90%	+11.14	9-2
1965-12-05	Washington Redskins	W 24-16	1610.80	1478.92	66.68%	30.78%	+9.68	10-2
1965-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-42	1620.48	1405.90	76.11%	21.79%	-49.22	10-3
1965-12-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-24	1571.26	1439.86	66.62%	30.83%	+5.94	11-3
1965-09-19	New York Giants	W 31-2	1471.96	1433.48	54.07%	43.07%	+25.73	1-0
1965-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1497.69	1477.72	51.43%	45.70%	+22.63	2-0
1965-10-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-20	1520.32	1543.77	45.20%	51.92%	-13.25	2-1
1965-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-35	1507.07	1462.69	54.91%	42.25%	-20.07	2-2
1965-10-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1487.00	1567.09	37.37%	59.88%	-10.17	2-3
1965-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-13	1476.83	1639.42	27.20%	70.40%	-9.57	2-4
1965-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-22	1467.26	1412.99	56.30%	40.87%	-18.61	2-5
1965-11-07	San Francisco 49ers	W 39-31	1448.65	1485.73	43.27%	53.87%	+16.81	3-5
1965-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-17	1465.46	1424.49	54.42%	42.73%	+12.54	4-5
1965-11-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-24	1478.00	1589.87	33.24%	64.12%	-9.79	4-6
1965-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 31-34	1468.21	1469.66	48.35%	48.77%	-9.26	4-7
1965-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-19	1458.95	1454.42	49.21%	47.91%	+7.50	5-7
1965-12-11	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-13	1466.45	1459.56	49.55%	47.57%	+19.69	6-7
1965-12-19	@ New York Giants	W 38-20	1486.14	1458.95	52.46%	44.67%	+21.00	7-7
1965-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-0	1531.33	1453.51	59.57%	37.67%	+18.72	1-0
1965-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-29	1550.05	1506.16	54.84%	42.32%	+6.64	2-0
1965-10-03	Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1556.69	1455.08	62.77%	34.55%	+7.69	3-0
1965-10-10	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-31	1564.38	1582.03	46.03%	51.09%	-24.97	3-1
1965-10-17	Green Bay Packers	L 21-31	1539.41	1626.62	36.42%	60.85%	-12.81	3-2
1965-10-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-38	1526.60	1468.95	56.77%	40.41%	-33.09	3-3
1965-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-7	1493.51	1377.44	64.66%	32.72%	+17.84	4-3
1965-11-07	@ Green Bay Packers	W 12-7	1511.35	1614.55	34.34%	62.98%	+15.47	5-3
1965-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-27	1526.82	1468.93	56.81%	40.38%	-15.33	5-4
1965-11-21	Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1511.49	1554.88	42.39%	54.77%	-12.44	5-5
1965-11-25	Baltimore Colts	T 24-24	1499.05	1672.85	25.97%	71.70%	+1.24	5-5
1965-12-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-17	1500.29	1515.89	46.32%	50.80%	-8.88	5-6
1965-12-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-29	1491.41	1473.39	51.15%	45.97%	-26.49	5-7
1965-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-28	1464.92	1469.80	47.86%	49.26%	+14.40	6-7
1965-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-9	1572.32	1469.99	62.87%	34.46%	+21.68	1-0
1965-09-26	Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1594.00	1583.72	50.04%	47.08%	+9.02	2-0
1965-10-03	Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1603.02	1431.34	71.46%	26.20%	+8.74	3-0
1965-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1611.76	1493.00	65.01%	32.38%	+14.86	4-0
1965-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-21	1626.62	1539.41	60.85%	36.42%	+12.80	5-0
1965-10-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-3	1639.42	1476.83	70.40%	27.20%	+9.57	6-0
1965-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-31	1648.99	1502.04	68.54%	28.99%	-34.44	6-1
1965-11-07	Detroit Lions	L 7-12	1614.55	1511.35	62.98%	34.34%	-15.47	6-2
1965-11-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 6-3	1599.08	1350.16	79.43%	18.68%	+3.58	7-2
1965-11-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-13	1602.66	1528.70	59.04%	38.19%	+21.22	8-2
1965-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-21	1623.88	1340.77	82.39%	15.92%	-29.78	8-3
1965-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-19	1594.10	1481.64	64.19%	33.17%	+8.25	9-3
1965-12-12	@ Baltimore Colts	W 42-27	1602.35	1647.39	42.16%	55.00%	+23.48	10-3
1965-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 24-24	1625.83	1498.35	66.12%	31.31%	-0.94	10-3
1965-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1453.51	1531.33	37.67%	59.57%	-18.73	0-1
1965-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 30-28	1434.78	1439.03	47.95%	49.17%	+7.69	1-1
1965-10-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 35-38	1442.47	1499.52	40.49%	56.69%	-7.79	1-2
1965-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-31	1434.68	1422.60	50.29%	46.82%	-27.78	1-3
1965-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-45	1406.90	1478.15	38.55%	58.66%	-20.99	1-4
1965-10-24	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1385.91	1622.88	19.72%	78.32%	-8.47	1-5
1965-10-31	Detroit Lions	L 7-31	1377.44	1493.51	32.72%	64.66%	-17.83	1-6
1965-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1359.61	1536.39	25.65%	72.04%	-9.45	1-7
1965-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-6	1350.16	1599.08	18.68%	79.43%	-3.59	1-8
1965-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1346.57	1484.26	30.08%	67.40%	-5.80	1-9
1965-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1340.77	1623.88	15.92%	82.39%	+29.79	2-9
1965-12-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-3	1370.56	1494.90	31.69%	65.72%	+35.34	3-9
1965-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-7	1405.90	1620.48	21.79%	76.11%	+49.22	4-9
1965-12-18	Baltimore Colts	L 17-20	1455.12	1623.91	26.52%	71.12%	-5.10	4-10
1965-09-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-35	1527.18	1562.69	43.49%	53.65%	-21.02	0-1
1965-09-26	Detroit Lions	L 29-31	1506.16	1550.05	42.32%	54.84%	-6.64	0-2
1965-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-35	1499.52	1442.47	56.69%	40.49%	+7.79	1-2
1965-10-09	New York Giants	W 40-14	1507.31	1434.89	58.83%	38.40%	+21.75	2-2
1965-10-17	Chicago Bears	L 37-45	1529.06	1450.38	59.69%	37.56%	-18.57	2-3
1965-10-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-41	1510.49	1499.13	50.19%	46.93%	+5.20	3-3
1965-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-17	1515.69	1593.13	37.72%	59.52%	+20.70	4-3
1965-11-07	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-13	1536.39	1359.61	72.04%	25.65%	+9.46	5-3
1965-11-14	Baltimore Colts	L 21-41	1545.85	1648.11	34.47%	62.86%	-17.15	5-4
1965-11-21	Green Bay Packers	L 13-38	1528.70	1602.66	38.19%	59.04%	-21.21	5-5
1965-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-45	1507.49	1490.05	51.06%	46.06%	-25.85	5-6
1965-12-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-24	1481.64	1594.10	33.17%	64.19%	-8.25	5-7
1965-12-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-7	1473.39	1491.41	45.97%	51.15%	+26.49	6-7
1965-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1499.88	1633.07	30.62%	66.84%	+19.41	7-7
1965-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 2-31	1433.48	1471.96	43.07%	54.07%	-25.73	0-1
1965-09-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-14	1407.75	1491.01	36.95%	60.31%	+9.38	1-1
1965-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-13	1417.13	1433.12	46.26%	50.86%	+17.76	2-1
1965-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-40	1434.89	1507.31	38.40%	58.83%	-21.75	2-2
1965-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-27	1413.14	1482.77	38.77%	58.44%	+18.19	3-2
1965-10-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-38	1431.33	1577.26	29.11%	68.41%	-15.87	3-3
1965-10-31	St. Louis Cardinals	W 14-10	1415.46	1569.24	28.20%	69.36%	+15.21	4-3
1965-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1430.67	1438.05	47.50%	49.62%	-21.02	4-4
1965-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-34	1409.65	1579.28	26.42%	71.22%	-10.60	4-5
1965-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-15	1399.05	1534.19	30.38%	67.08%	+26.54	5-5
1965-11-28	Chicago Bears	L 14-35	1425.59	1567.33	29.60%	67.90%	-15.10	5-6
1965-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-10	1410.49	1375.00	53.65%	43.49%	+24.12	6-6
1965-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-10	1434.61	1469.24	43.62%	53.52%	+24.34	7-6
1965-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-38	1458.95	1486.14	44.67%	52.46%	-21.00	7-7
1965-09-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-27	1474.94	1520.74	42.05%	55.11%	+16.07	1-0
1965-09-26	New York Giants	L 14-16	1491.01	1407.75	60.31%	36.95%	-9.38	1-1
1965-10-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-35	1481.63	1540.87	40.19%	57.00%	-18.94	1-2
1965-10-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-24	1462.69	1507.07	42.25%	54.91%	+20.08	2-2
1965-10-17	@ New York Giants	L 27-35	1482.77	1413.14	58.44%	38.77%	-18.20	2-3
1965-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1464.57	1397.32	58.11%	39.10%	-15.66	2-4
1965-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-23	1448.91	1430.05	51.27%	45.85%	-8.01	2-5
1965-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 34-38	1440.90	1572.42	30.82%	66.63%	-6.86	2-6
1965-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 21-14	1434.04	1459.08	44.97%	52.15%	+15.23	3-6
1965-11-21	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-34	1449.27	1665.25	21.66%	76.25%	-7.60	3-7
1965-11-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-24	1441.67	1507.65	39.27%	57.94%	+12.75	4-7
1965-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-21	1454.42	1458.95	47.91%	49.21%	-7.49	4-8
1965-12-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 47-13	1446.93	1350.88	62.03%	35.27%	+22.87	5-8
1965-12-19	Detroit Lions	L 28-35	1469.80	1464.92	49.26%	47.86%	-14.41	5-9
1965-09-19	Green Bay Packers	L 9-41	1469.99	1572.32	34.46%	62.87%	-21.68	0-1
1965-09-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-27	1448.31	1485.16	43.30%	53.84%	-15.19	0-2
1965-10-03	New York Giants	L 13-23	1433.12	1417.13	50.86%	46.26%	-17.76	0-3
1965-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-24	1415.36	1559.80	29.28%	68.23%	-7.28	0-4
1965-10-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-20	1408.08	1574.11	26.82%	70.80%	-10.76	0-5
1965-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1397.32	1464.57	39.10%	58.11%	+15.67	1-5
1965-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-13	1412.99	1467.26	40.87%	56.30%	+18.61	2-5
1965-11-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1431.60	1554.03	31.93%	65.48%	-7.11	2-6
1965-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1424.49	1465.46	42.73%	54.42%	-12.54	2-7
1965-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 3-31	1411.95	1443.85	44.00%	53.13%	-25.81	2-8
1965-11-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-42	1386.14	1599.66	21.90%	76.00%	-11.14	2-9
1965-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 10-35	1375.00	1410.49	43.49%	53.65%	-24.12	2-10
1965-12-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-47	1350.88	1446.93	35.27%	62.03%	-22.87	2-11
1965-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-35	1328.01	1444.90	32.62%	64.77%	-16.63	2-12
1965-09-19	Chicago Bears	W 52-24	1455.69	1468.49	46.72%	50.40%	+29.47	1-0
1965-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-17	1485.16	1448.31	53.84%	43.30%	+15.18	2-0
1965-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-27	1500.34	1574.69	38.14%	59.09%	-7.34	2-1
1965-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-27	1493.00	1611.76	32.38%	65.01%	-14.85	2-2
1965-10-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-21	1478.15	1406.90	58.66%	38.55%	+20.98	3-2
1965-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 41-42	1499.13	1510.49	46.93%	50.19%	-5.19	3-3
1965-10-31	Baltimore Colts	L 28-34	1493.94	1631.35	30.11%	67.37%	-8.21	3-4
1965-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-39	1485.73	1448.65	53.87%	43.27%	-16.80	3-5
1965-11-14	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-21	1468.93	1526.82	40.38%	56.81%	+15.33	4-5
1965-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-27	1484.26	1346.57	67.40%	30.08%	+5.79	5-5
1965-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 45-24	1490.05	1507.49	46.06%	51.06%	+25.84	6-5
1965-12-05	Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1515.89	1500.29	50.80%	46.32%	+8.89	7-5
1965-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-61	1524.78	1606.64	37.13%	60.12%	-26.43	7-6
1965-12-19	Green Bay Packers	T 24-24	1498.35	1625.83	31.31%	66.12%	+0.94	7-6
1965-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-34	1520.74	1474.94	55.11%	42.05%	-16.07	0-1
1965-09-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 49-13	1504.67	1579.96	38.01%	59.22%	+39.10	1-1
1965-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-13	1543.77	1520.32	51.92%	45.20%	+13.25	2-1
1965-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-16	1557.02	1447.40	63.83%	33.53%	+17.09	3-1
1965-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-7	1574.11	1408.08	70.80%	26.82%	+10.75	4-1
1965-10-24	Washington Redskins	L 20-24	1584.86	1414.42	71.31%	26.33%	-15.62	4-2
1965-10-31	@ New York Giants	L 10-14	1569.24	1415.46	69.36%	28.20%	-15.21	4-3
1965-11-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-17	1554.03	1431.60	65.48%	31.93%	+7.11	5-3
1965-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-34	1561.14	1527.93	53.32%	43.82%	-26.95	5-4
1965-11-21	New York Giants	L 15-28	1534.19	1399.05	67.08%	30.38%	-26.54	5-5
1965-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1507.65	1441.67	57.94%	39.27%	-12.75	5-6
1965-12-05	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-27	1494.90	1370.56	65.72%	31.69%	-35.34	5-7
1965-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1459.56	1466.45	47.57%	49.55%	-19.70	5-8
1965-12-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-27	1439.86	1571.26	30.83%	66.62%	-5.94	5-9
1965-09-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1491.06	1566.62	37.97%	59.26%	-13.34	0-1
1965-09-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1477.72	1497.69	45.70%	51.43%	-22.64	0-2
1965-10-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1455.08	1556.69	34.55%	62.77%	-7.68	0-3
1965-10-10	St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-37	1447.40	1557.02	33.53%	63.83%	-17.10	0-4
1965-10-17	Baltimore Colts	L 7-38	1430.30	1607.00	25.65%	72.03%	-15.88	0-5
1965-10-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-20	1414.42	1584.86	26.33%	71.31%	+15.63	1-5
1965-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1430.05	1448.91	45.85%	51.27%	+8.00	2-5
1965-11-07	@ New York Giants	W 23-7	1438.05	1430.67	49.62%	47.50%	+21.03	3-5
1965-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-21	1459.08	1434.04	52.15%	44.97%	-15.23	3-6
1965-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-3	1443.85	1411.95	53.13%	44.00%	+25.81	4-6
1965-11-28	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1469.66	1468.21	48.77%	48.35%	+9.26	5-6
1965-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-24	1478.92	1610.80	30.78%	66.68%	-9.68	5-7
1965-12-12	New York Giants	L 10-27	1469.24	1434.61	53.52%	43.62%	-24.34	5-8
1965-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-14	1444.90	1328.01	64.77%	32.62%	+16.63	6-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1965-12-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-13	1629.01	1624.89	50.59%	49.41%	-9.41	0-1
1966-01-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-23	1577.20	1634.30	41.86%	58.14%	-14.91	0-1
1965-12-26	Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1624.89	1629.01	49.41%	50.59%	+9.41	1-0
1966-01-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-12	1634.30	1577.20	58.14%	41.86%	+14.91	2-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1965-11-28	15.92%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1340.77	21	Green Bay Packers	1623.88	10
2	1965-12-12	21.79%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1405.90	42	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1620.48	7
3	1965-10-24	26.33%	Washington Redskins	1414.42	24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1584.86	20
4	1965-10-31	28.20%	@ New York Giants	1415.46	14	St. Louis Cardinals	1569.24	10
5	1965-10-31	28.99%	@ Chicago Bears	1502.04	31	Green Bay Packers	1648.99	10
6	1965-11-21	30.38%	New York Giants	1399.05	28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1534.19	15
7	1965-12-19	30.62%	Minnesota Vikings	1499.88	24	@ Chicago Bears	1633.07	17
8	1965-12-05	31.69%	Los Angeles Rams	1370.56	27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1494.90	3
9	1965-11-07	34.34%	Detroit Lions	1511.35	12	@ Green Bay Packers	1614.55	7
10	1965-12-05	36.16%	Chicago Bears	1582.42	13	@ Baltimore Colts	1671.61	0
11	1965-09-26	36.95%	New York Giants	1407.75	16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1491.01	14
12	1965-10-17	37.56%	Chicago Bears	1450.38	45	@ Minnesota Vikings	1529.06	37
13	1965-10-31	37.72%	Minnesota Vikings	1515.69	27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1593.13	17
14	1965-09-26	38.01%	St. Louis Cardinals	1504.67	49	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1579.96	13
15	1965-10-17	38.77%	@ New York Giants	1413.14	35	Philadelphia Eagles	1482.77	27
16	1965-10-24	39.10%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1397.32	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1464.57	14
17	1965-11-28	39.27%	Philadelphia Eagles	1441.67	28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1507.65	24
18	1965-11-14	40.38%	San Francisco 49ers	1468.93	27	@ Detroit Lions	1526.82	21
19	1965-10-24	40.41%	@ Chicago Bears	1468.95	38	Detroit Lions	1526.60	10
20	1965-10-31	40.87%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1412.99	22	Dallas Cowboys	1467.26	13
21	1965-09-19	42.05%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1474.94	34	St. Louis Cardinals	1520.74	27
22	1965-12-12	42.16%	Green Bay Packers	1602.35	42	@ Baltimore Colts	1647.39	27
23	1965-10-10	42.25%	Philadelphia Eagles	1462.69	35	@ Dallas Cowboys	1507.07	24
24	1965-11-07	43.27%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1448.65	39	San Francisco 49ers	1485.73	31
25	1965-12-12	43.62%	New York Giants	1434.61	27	@ Washington Redskins	1469.24	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1965-12-12	49.22	@ Los Angeles Rams	42	1405.90	21.79%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1620.48	76.11%
2	1965-09-26	39.10	St. Louis Cardinals	49	1504.67	38.01%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1579.96	59.22%
3	1965-12-05	35.34	Los Angeles Rams	27	1370.56	31.69%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	3	1494.90	65.72%
4	1965-10-31	34.44	@ Chicago Bears	31	1502.04	28.99%	Green Bay Packers	10	1648.99	68.54%
5	1965-10-24	33.09	@ Chicago Bears	38	1468.95	40.41%	Detroit Lions	10	1526.60	56.77%
6	1965-11-28	29.79	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1340.77	15.92%	Green Bay Packers	10	1623.88	82.39%
7	1965-09-19	29.47	@ San Francisco 49ers	52	1455.69	46.72%	Chicago Bears	24	1468.49	50.40%
8	1965-10-10	27.78	@ Chicago Bears	31	1422.60	46.82%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1434.68	50.29%
9	1965-11-14	26.95	@ Chicago Bears	34	1527.93	43.82%	St. Louis Cardinals	13	1561.14	53.32%
10	1965-11-21	26.54	New York Giants	28	1399.05	30.38%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	15	1534.19	67.08%
11	1965-12-12	26.49	Minnesota Vikings	29	1473.39	45.97%	@ Detroit Lions	7	1491.41	51.15%
12	1965-12-12	26.43	@ Chicago Bears	61	1606.64	60.12%	San Francisco 49ers	20	1524.78	37.13%
13	1965-11-28	25.85	San Francisco 49ers	45	1490.05	46.06%	@ Minnesota Vikings	24	1507.49	51.06%
14	1965-11-21	25.81	Washington Redskins	31	1443.85	53.13%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1411.95	44.00%
15	1965-09-19	25.73	@ Dallas Cowboys	31	1471.96	54.07%	New York Giants	2	1433.48	43.07%
16	1965-10-10	24.97	@ Baltimore Colts	31	1582.03	51.09%	Detroit Lions	7	1564.38	46.03%
17	1965-12-12	24.34	New York Giants	27	1434.61	43.62%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1469.24	53.52%
18	1965-12-05	24.22	Chicago Bears	13	1582.42	36.16%	@ Baltimore Colts	0	1671.61	61.11%
19	1965-12-05	24.12	@ New York Giants	35	1410.49	53.65%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1375.00	43.49%
20	1965-12-12	23.48	Green Bay Packers	42	1602.35	42.16%	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1647.39	55.00%
21	1965-12-12	22.87	Philadelphia Eagles	47	1446.93	62.03%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	13	1350.88	35.27%
22	1965-09-26	22.64	@ Dallas Cowboys	27	1497.69	51.43%	Washington Redskins	7	1477.72	45.70%
23	1965-10-09	21.75	@ Minnesota Vikings	40	1507.31	58.83%	New York Giants	14	1434.89	38.40%
24	1965-09-19	21.68	Green Bay Packers	41	1572.32	62.87%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1469.99	34.46%
25	1965-11-21	21.22	Green Bay Packers	38	1602.66	59.04%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1528.70	38.19%