1964 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns (1st)

4th Title

Last Title: 1955

Runner-Up

Baltimore Colts

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1959

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Colts

3.03 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.97 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

3.50 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.50 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	3	1	.750	-	415	293	+122	8.93	+1.57
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9	3	2	.714	0.5	357	331	+26	8.04	+1.96
3	Washington Redskins	6	8	0	.429	4.5	307	305	+2	5.87	+0.13
4	Philadelphia Eagles	6	8	0	.429	4.5	312	313	-1	6.47	-0.47
5	Dallas Cowboys	5	8	1	.393	5	250	289	-39	6.30	-0.80
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	9	0	.357	5.5	253	315	-62	6.61	-1.61
7	New York Giants	2	10	2	.214	7.5	241	399	-158	6.50	-3.50

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	12	2	0	.857	-	428	225	+203	8.97	+3.03
2	Minnesota Vikings	8	5	1	.607	3.5	355	296	+59	6.56	+1.94
3	Green Bay Packers	8	5	1	.607	3.5	342	245	+97	8.81	-0.31
4	Detroit Lions	7	5	2	.571	4	280	260	+20	7.34	+0.66
5	Los Angeles Rams	5	7	2	.429	6	283	339	-56	6.10	-0.10
6	Chicago Bears	5	9	0	.357	7	260	379	-119	6.72	-1.72
7	San Francisco 49ers	4	10	0	.286	8	236	330	-94	4.76	-0.76

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Cleveland Browns (1st) 27

Baltimore Colts 0

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1689	12	8.97	+3.03	99.41%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Green Bay Packers	West	1647	8.5	8.81	-0.31	53.97%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1613	10.5	8.93	+1.57	88.02%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	West	1572	8	7.34	+0.66	82.68%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	West	1560	8.5	6.56	+1.94	91.60%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1557	10	8.04	+1.96	95.20%	0	4	6	8	9	10	14
Washington Redskins	East	1477	6	5.87	+0.13	75.03%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1438	6	6.47	-0.47	63.32%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	1435	5.5	6.30	-0.80	45.63%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	West	1434	5	6.72	-1.72	36.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1431	5	6.61	-1.61	39.03%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Los Angeles Rams	West	1399	6	6.10	-0.10	71.02%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	1398	4	4.76	-0.76	57.21%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New York Giants	East	1348	3	6.50	-3.50	8.36%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-
Dallas Cowboys	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-
New York Giants	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.51%	1.53%	1.02%	1.02%	—	0.51%	4.59%
7–13	0.51%	3.06%	1.53%	5.61%	3.06%	1.53%	0.51%	15.82%
14–20	1.53%	1.53%	5.10%	7.14%	3.06%	2.55%	2.55%	23.47%
21–27	1.02%	5.61%	7.14%	8.16%	4.08%	2.55%	1.02%	29.59%
28–34	1.02%	3.06%	3.06%	4.08%	3.06%	0.51%	—	14.80%
35–41	—	1.53%	2.55%	2.55%	0.51%	—	—	7.14%
42+	0.51%	0.51%	2.55%	1.02%	—	—	—	4.59%
Total	4.59%	15.82%	23.47%	29.59%	14.80%	7.14%	4.59%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.04	22.04	+0.00
SD	10.40	10.40	16.08
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	52	52	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.57	16.07	+14.50
SD	12.57	11.23	18.19
CV	0.41	0.70	—
Max	52	34	+52
Min	14	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.57	27.07	-8.50
SD	12.56	11.01	17.61
CV	0.68	0.41	—
Max	38	52	+21
Min	0	10	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.64	20.93	+8.71
SD	11.15	6.78	13.21
CV	0.38	0.32	—
Max	52	33	+32
Min	7	6	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.86	20.64	-2.79
SD	7.71	8.86	12.34
CV	0.43	0.43	—
Max	31	45	+18
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	18.57	+1.43
SD	10.07	10.99	16.74
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	37	37	+23
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	57.14%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.43	17.50	+6.93
SD	9.36	7.52	12.30
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	45	27	+29
Min	14	3	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	24.21	-4.00
SD	8.85	10.06	15.99
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	42	38	+28
Min	7	10	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	50.00%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.36	21.14	+4.21
SD	8.41	9.13	14.68
CV	0.33	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+27
Min	13	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.21	28.50	-11.29
SD	7.75	13.08	14.39
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	34	52	+17
Min	3	10	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	22.36	-0.07
SD	8.59	11.43	15.76
CV	0.39	0.51	—
Max	38	38	+31
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	22.50	-4.43
SD	11.01	8.87	15.73
CV	0.61	0.39	—
Max	44	34	+27
Min	0	7	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	64.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	23.57	-6.71
SD	9.02	8.79	14.46
CV	0.54	0.37	—
Max	31	42	+21
Min	3	7	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	23.64	+1.86
SD	9.41	11.59	12.78
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	38	47	+25
Min	10	6	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.93	21.79	+0.14
SD	8.84	11.69	15.37
CV	0.40	0.54	—
Max	36	45	+30
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+0.4
Allowed	0.54	-0.4
Differential	0.91	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts	12	8.97	+3.03
2	St. Louis Cardinals	10	8.04	+1.96
3	Minnesota Vikings	8.5	6.56	+1.94
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.5	8.93	+1.57
5	Detroit Lions	8	7.34	+0.66

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	3	6.50	-3.50
2	Chicago Bears	5	6.72	-1.72
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	6.61	-1.61
4	Dallas Cowboys	5.5	6.30	-0.80
5	San Francisco 49ers	4	4.76	-0.76

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Colts	11	Sep 20 – Nov 29	1 in 525
2	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 18
3	Dallas Cowboys	3	Oct 25 – Nov 8	1 in 17
4	Chicago Bears	3	Nov 15 – Nov 26	1 in 14
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 40
2	Dallas Cowboys	4	Nov 15 – Dec 6	1 in 21
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	Nov 15 – Dec 6	1 in 20
4	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 18 – Nov 8	1 in 17
5	San Francisco 49ers	5	Oct 11 – Nov 8	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	23.28%	13.53%	8.55%	5.12%	3.00%	1.45%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	24.43%	17.61%	12.93%	9.56%	6.76%	4.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	12.67%	15.65%	16.56%	16.55%	15.89%	14.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	11.62%	14.69%	16.26%	17.14%	17.28%	16.27%
New York Giants	6.50%	11.33%	14.76%	16.27%	17.19%	17.38%	16.57%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	9.89%	13.25%	15.72%	17.30%	18.53%	19.72%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	6.78%	10.51%	13.71%	17.14%	21.16%	27.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	26.98%	16.19%	9.85%	5.43%	2.59%	0.77%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	26.26%	17.04%	10.85%	6.61%	3.45%	1.29%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	16.21%	19.82%	18.52%	15.81%	12.03%	6.50%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	11.41%	16.26%	18.65%	18.90%	17.00%	11.13%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	10.22%	15.04%	18.06%	19.69%	18.66%	12.70%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	7.04%	11.40%	16.08%	20.19%	23.00%	18.98%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	1.88%	4.27%	7.99%	13.37%	23.27%	48.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Baltimore Colts	22.95%	18.40%	14.59%	11.43%	8.79%	6.59%	5.18%	3.91%	2.93%	2.13%	1.45%	0.95%	0.46%	0.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	23.10%	18.98%	13.34%	10.99%	8.35%	6.53%	5.23%	3.99%	3.10%	2.35%	1.74%	1.19%	0.82%	0.29%
Green Bay Packers	21.25%	16.61%	14.17%	11.04%	9.07%	7.20%	5.66%	4.40%	3.56%	2.69%	1.87%	1.33%	0.75%	0.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.89%	12.28%	12.05%	11.70%	9.68%	8.99%	7.38%	6.56%	5.44%	4.68%	3.78%	3.07%	2.17%	1.33%
Detroit Lions	5.81%	6.79%	8.62%	8.63%	9.69%	9.34%	9.06%	8.58%	7.89%	7.28%	6.07%	5.42%	3.92%	2.89%
Chicago Bears	2.89%	4.17%	5.83%	6.63%	7.82%	8.24%	8.85%	9.02%	8.86%	8.94%	8.52%	7.97%	6.44%	5.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.53%	4.27%	5.47%	6.68%	7.38%	8.19%	8.54%	8.64%	8.66%	8.74%	8.57%	8.10%	8.04%	6.19%
Minnesota Vikings	2.40%	3.69%	5.20%	5.94%	7.28%	7.66%	8.49%	8.86%	9.40%	9.11%	9.20%	8.87%	7.41%	6.49%
New York Giants	2.04%	3.60%	4.85%	6.12%	6.99%	7.81%	8.14%	8.68%	8.90%	9.15%	9.14%	8.96%	8.86%	6.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.96%	3.57%	4.81%	6.33%	6.76%	7.99%	8.14%	8.72%	8.87%	9.05%	9.04%	8.83%	8.53%	7.39%
Dallas Cowboys	1.72%	3.13%	4.09%	5.47%	6.16%	7.13%	7.69%	8.45%	8.81%	9.29%	9.67%	9.84%	10.12%	8.45%
Los Angeles Rams	1.32%	2.21%	3.48%	4.18%	5.51%	6.13%	7.51%	8.26%	9.22%	9.85%	10.46%	11.18%	10.33%	10.35%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	1.91%	2.64%	3.73%	4.69%	5.84%	6.56%	7.58%	8.54%	9.51%	10.71%	11.53%	13.56%	12.26%
San Francisco 49ers	0.19%	0.39%	0.86%	1.15%	1.82%	2.38%	3.55%	4.34%	5.82%	7.23%	9.78%	12.77%	18.60%	31.13%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	54.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	75.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	91.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	93.27%
New York Giants	6.50%	93.49%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	94.42%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	96.60%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	61.81%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	65.50%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	88.89%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	93.35%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	94.37%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	96.69%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	99.40%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+2.04%

Slight Edge

47.96%6.12%45.92%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 7.09 Elo pts.

27 Elo

0.037 points per Elo point

080

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.91 points

Lean Home

-8+0.26+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.5

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

22%

Cleveland Browns (1st), 3rd of 14

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

38.0%

Tough Road

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.43 · As Expected: 1.43 to 1.97 · Elevated: 1.97 to 2.69 · High Variance: 2.69 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.55 · Close: 2.55 to 3.45 · Off Target: 3.45 to 4.5 · Well Off Target: 4.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.7 · As Expected: 0.7 to 1.68 · Several Outliers: 1.68 to 3.08 · Many Outliers: 3.08 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.88 · As Expected: 0.88 to 1.46 · More Than Expected: 1.46 to 2.33 · Far More Than Expected: 2.33 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.66 wins

As Expected

01.794

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.50

Pinpoint

03.008

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.43%

99.41%

Baltimore Colts

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.57%

8.36%

New York Giants

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 14

Several Outliers

01.47

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.67

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Lopsided

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

18%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Routine

0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.25

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.02

Reshuffled

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

35%

As Expected

0%35%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Shaky Favorites

0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.15 · Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.31 · Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.

Probability calibration

0.53

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.85

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.095

Within Noise

00.1550.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	26.32%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	22.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	21.68%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	10.01%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	6.02%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	2.90%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	2.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	1.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	1.72%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	1.42%
New York Giants	6.50%	1.17%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	1.06%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	1.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	39.5%18.23%	75.0%3.09%	55.7%4.63%	45.3%14.57%	77.1%1.57%	57.5%2.68%	75.1%0.29%
Dallas Cowboys	18.0%2.26%	55.0%0.31%	29.3%0.73%	23.0%1.68%	51.0%0.20%	30.1%0.34%	63.5%0.05%
New York Giants	13.4%2.55%	35.2%0.40%	24.0%0.56%	15.7%2.44%	38.8%0.22%	23.3%0.29%	43.2%0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.7%2.58%	54.1%0.44%	30.7%0.77%	23.3%2.40%	56.0%0.16%	29.6%0.36%	43.5%0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.6%3.13%	47.7%0.58%	31.1%0.92%	22.1%2.83%	46.4%0.17%	33.7%0.36%	57.9%0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	31.5%8.36%	67.4%1.64%	49.0%3.06%	36.3%9.27%	70.7%0.86%	51.7%1.39%	65.8%0.12%
Washington Redskins	23.3%1.07%	53.0%0.20%	32.4%0.44%	27.6%1.31%	57.7%0.13%	36.4%0.21%	53.1%0.03%
Baltimore Colts								60.5%18.23%	82.0%2.26%	86.6%2.55%	81.3%2.58%	82.4%3.13%	68.5%8.36%	76.7%1.07%
Chicago Bears								25.0%3.09%	45.0%0.31%	64.8%0.40%	45.9%0.44%	52.3%0.58%	32.6%1.64%	47.0%0.20%
Detroit Lions								44.3%4.63%	70.7%0.73%	76.0%0.56%	69.3%0.77%	68.9%0.92%	51.0%3.06%	67.6%0.44%
Green Bay Packers								54.7%14.57%	77.0%1.68%	84.3%2.44%	76.7%2.40%	77.9%2.83%	63.7%9.27%	72.4%1.31%
Los Angeles Rams								22.9%1.57%	49.0%0.20%	61.2%0.22%	44.0%0.16%	53.6%0.17%	29.3%0.86%	42.3%0.13%
Minnesota Vikings								42.5%2.68%	69.9%0.34%	76.7%0.29%	70.4%0.36%	66.3%0.36%	48.3%1.39%	63.6%0.21%
San Francisco 49ers								24.9%0.29%	36.5%0.05%	56.8%0.04%	56.5%0.02%	42.1%0.04%	34.2%0.12%	46.9%0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	62.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	38.0%100.00%
Baltimore Colts		62.0%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Baltimore Colts 62.01% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.01%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 37.99% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.99%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-09-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-34	1517.23	1462.78	52.55%	39.16%	-25.51	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-20	1491.72	1599.63	30.59%	61.75%	+9.37	1-1
1964-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 52-0	1501.09	1570.40	37.17%	54.63%	+60.32	2-1
1964-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-20	1561.41	1498.43	55.72%	36.15%	+22.04	3-1
1964-10-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 47-27	1583.45	1559.65	48.19%	43.40%	+30.25	4-1
1964-10-18	Green Bay Packers	W 24-21	1613.70	1606.06	47.90%	43.68%	+11.78	5-1
1964-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-0	1625.48	1589.02	50.00%	41.63%	+37.94	6-1
1964-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-7	1663.42	1389.90	79.82%	15.21%	+12.90	7-1
1964-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-24	1676.32	1443.02	74.69%	19.39%	+12.16	8-1
1964-11-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1688.48	1491.12	72.41%	21.29%	+5.80	9-1
1964-11-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-7	1694.28	1477.62	72.96%	20.83%	+13.49	10-1
1964-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1707.77	1384.85	82.71%	12.91%	+6.58	11-1
1964-12-06	Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1714.35	1508.92	73.27%	20.57%	-45.27	11-2
1964-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 45-17	1669.08	1497.24	69.57%	23.70%	+19.79	12-2
1964-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-23	1579.29	1576.34	45.19%	46.38%	-23.28	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1556.01	1488.29	54.41%	37.38%	+14.39	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-52	1570.40	1501.09	54.63%	37.17%	-60.31	1-2
1964-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1510.09	1424.20	56.92%	35.02%	-27.48	1-3
1964-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-17	1482.61	1476.39	47.70%	43.88%	+31.31	2-3
1964-10-18	Detroit Lions	L 0-10	1513.92	1569.68	38.98%	52.74%	-19.34	2-4
1964-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1494.58	1401.03	57.96%	34.05%	-23.38	2-5
1964-11-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1471.20	1457.41	48.79%	42.81%	-28.18	2-6
1964-11-08	Baltimore Colts	L 24-40	1443.02	1676.32	19.39%	74.69%	-12.15	2-7
1964-11-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-24	1430.87	1505.26	34.68%	57.29%	+27.64	3-7
1964-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1458.51	1392.83	56.10%	35.80%	+7.97	4-7
1964-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1466.48	1523.47	36.93%	54.89%	+14.55	5-7
1964-12-05	Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1481.03	1633.52	27.16%	65.59%	-16.06	5-8
1964-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-41	1464.97	1529.39	37.82%	53.95%	-30.88	5-9
1964-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-13	1519.80	1440.22	56.06%	35.83%	+21.12	1-0
1964-09-20	St. Louis Cardinals	T 33-33	1540.92	1531.90	48.10%	43.49%	-0.16	1-0
1964-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-20	1540.76	1473.03	54.41%	37.38%	+16.62	2-0
1964-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-6	1557.38	1447.28	62.03%	30.33%	+21.98	3-0
1964-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-23	1579.36	1484.88	59.99%	32.19%	-36.50	3-1
1964-10-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1542.86	1425.69	61.11%	31.17%	+9.85	4-1
1964-10-25	New York Giants	W 42-20	1552.71	1451.66	60.85%	31.40%	+23.27	5-1
1964-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1575.98	1447.18	62.62%	29.81%	+17.00	6-1
1964-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 34-24	1592.98	1453.96	65.68%	27.08%	+13.54	7-1
1964-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 37-21	1606.52	1546.97	55.25%	36.59%	+23.03	8-1
1964-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-28	1629.55	1591.30	50.26%	41.38%	-20.48	8-2
1964-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-24	1609.07	1435.63	69.76%	23.54%	+13.89	9-2
1964-12-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-28	1622.96	1522.84	58.85%	33.24%	-26.89	9-3
1964-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 52-20	1596.07	1365.66	74.39%	19.63%	+17.42	10-3
1964-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-16	1466.80	1511.88	40.43%	51.23%	-20.03	0-1
1964-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 24-18	1446.77	1419.10	50.77%	40.88%	+15.67	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1462.44	1500.24	39.49%	52.20%	-15.16	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-27	1447.28	1557.38	30.33%	62.03%	-21.98	1-3
1964-10-11	New York Giants	T 13-13	1425.30	1470.73	40.39%	51.28%	+0.39	1-3
1964-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-20	1425.69	1542.86	31.17%	61.11%	-9.85	1-4
1964-10-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-13	1415.84	1547.32	27.91%	64.75%	+41.57	2-4
1964-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1457.41	1471.20	42.81%	48.79%	+28.18	3-4
1964-11-08	@ New York Giants	W 31-21	1485.59	1463.53	47.94%	43.65%	+21.50	4-4
1964-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1507.09	1456.34	54.02%	37.75%	-14.34	4-5
1964-11-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-28	1492.75	1477.61	46.94%	44.63%	-25.18	4-6
1964-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 21-45	1467.57	1611.78	28.07%	64.57%	-21.74	4-7
1964-12-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1445.83	1421.73	48.23%	43.36%	-23.57	4-8
1964-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1422.26	1444.00	43.69%	47.89%	+12.82	5-8
1964-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-17	1524.62	1440.90	56.63%	35.30%	+16.69	1-0
1964-09-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 17-17	1541.31	1477.21	53.91%	37.86%	-0.58	1-0
1964-09-28	Green Bay Packers	L 10-14	1540.73	1590.25	39.83%	51.86%	-12.48	1-1
1964-10-04	New York Giants	W 26-3	1528.25	1501.50	50.64%	41.01%	+30.77	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1559.02	1463.36	58.25%	33.79%	+10.66	3-1
1964-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1569.68	1513.92	52.74%	38.98%	+19.34	4-1
1964-10-25	Baltimore Colts	L 0-34	1589.02	1625.48	41.63%	50.00%	-37.93	4-2
1964-11-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-17	1551.09	1511.11	52.51%	39.20%	+27.49	5-2
1964-11-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-30	1578.58	1596.60	42.22%	49.39%	-31.61	5-3
1964-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-37	1546.97	1606.52	36.59%	55.25%	-23.04	5-4
1964-11-22	Minnesota Vikings	T 23-23	1523.93	1485.32	52.32%	39.38%	-0.46	5-4
1964-11-26	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1523.47	1466.48	54.89%	36.93%	-14.55	5-5
1964-12-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-14	1508.92	1714.35	20.57%	73.27%	+45.27	6-5
1964-12-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1554.19	1415.38	65.65%	27.11%	+17.66	7-5
1964-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 23-12	1576.34	1579.29	46.38%	45.19%	+23.29	1-0
1964-09-20	Baltimore Colts	L 20-21	1599.63	1491.72	61.75%	30.59%	-9.38	1-1
1964-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-10	1590.25	1540.73	51.86%	39.83%	+12.49	2-1
1964-10-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-24	1602.74	1453.26	66.95%	25.97%	-10.11	2-2
1964-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1592.63	1451.68	65.92%	26.87%	+13.43	3-2
1964-10-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-24	1606.06	1613.70	43.68%	47.90%	-11.78	3-3
1964-10-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-27	1594.28	1481.16	62.42%	29.98%	-29.95	3-4
1964-11-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-13	1564.33	1502.30	53.62%	38.14%	+32.27	4-4
1964-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 30-7	1596.60	1578.58	49.39%	42.22%	+31.61	5-4
1964-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1628.21	1355.91	78.45%	16.31%	-36.91	5-5
1964-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1591.30	1629.55	41.38%	50.26%	+20.48	6-5
1964-11-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 45-21	1611.78	1467.57	64.57%	28.07%	+21.74	7-5
1964-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1633.52	1481.03	65.59%	27.16%	+16.06	8-5
1964-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1649.58	1397.14	76.59%	17.83%	-2.16	8-5
1964-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-14	1447.20	1517.57	35.19%	56.74%	+30.01	1-0
1964-09-19	Detroit Lions	T 17-17	1477.21	1541.31	37.86%	53.91%	+0.58	1-0
1964-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-13	1477.79	1473.90	47.37%	44.21%	+20.64	2-0
1964-10-04	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1498.43	1561.41	36.15%	55.72%	-22.04	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-38	1476.39	1482.61	43.88%	47.70%	-31.32	2-2
1964-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-14	1445.07	1438.24	47.79%	43.80%	+36.09	3-2
1964-10-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-17	1481.16	1594.28	29.98%	62.42%	+29.95	4-2
1964-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-37	1511.11	1551.09	39.20%	52.51%	-27.50	4-3
1964-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1483.61	1477.99	47.61%	43.97%	+21.65	5-3
1964-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-34	1505.26	1430.87	57.29%	34.68%	-27.64	5-4
1964-11-22	Baltimore Colts	L 7-24	1477.62	1694.28	20.83%	72.96%	-13.50	5-5
1964-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-34	1464.12	1485.79	41.71%	49.91%	-29.87	5-6
1964-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-28	1434.25	1378.27	52.77%	38.95%	-37.11	5-7
1964-12-13	Green Bay Packers	T 24-24	1397.14	1649.58	17.83%	76.59%	+2.16	5-7
1964-09-13	Baltimore Colts	W 34-24	1462.78	1517.23	39.16%	52.55%	+25.51	1-0
1964-09-20	Chicago Bears	L 28-34	1488.29	1556.01	37.38%	54.41%	-14.39	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-22	1473.90	1477.79	44.21%	47.37%	-20.64	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-23	1453.26	1602.74	25.97%	66.95%	+10.10	2-2
1964-10-11	Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1463.36	1559.02	33.79%	58.25%	-10.66	2-3
1964-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-10	1452.70	1521.38	37.26%	54.55%	+37.35	3-3
1964-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-22	1490.05	1402.15	57.19%	34.77%	+12.25	4-3
1964-11-01	Green Bay Packers	L 13-42	1502.30	1564.33	38.14%	53.62%	-32.26	4-4
1964-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1470.04	1376.99	59.80%	32.36%	+21.08	5-4
1964-11-15	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1491.12	1688.48	21.29%	72.41%	-5.80	5-5
1964-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	T 23-23	1485.32	1523.93	39.38%	52.32%	+0.47	5-5
1964-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-13	1485.79	1464.12	49.91%	41.71%	+29.87	6-5
1964-12-06	@ New York Giants	W 30-21	1515.66	1379.39	63.57%	28.96%	+13.73	7-5
1964-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-14	1529.39	1464.97	53.95%	37.82%	+30.88	8-5
1964-09-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1557.04	1438.33	61.31%	30.99%	-51.85	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1505.19	1487.56	47.30%	44.28%	-12.68	0-2
1964-09-25	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1492.51	1403.43	59.27%	32.85%	+8.99	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-26	1501.50	1528.25	41.01%	50.64%	-30.77	1-3
1964-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 13-13	1470.73	1425.30	51.28%	40.39%	-0.39	1-3
1964-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1470.34	1452.01	49.44%	42.18%	-18.68	1-4
1964-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-42	1451.66	1552.71	31.40%	60.85%	-23.27	1-5
1964-11-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1428.39	1505.75	36.12%	55.75%	+35.14	2-5
1964-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1463.53	1485.59	43.65%	47.94%	-21.50	2-6
1964-11-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 10-10	1442.03	1482.89	39.08%	52.64%	+0.49	2-6
1964-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-44	1442.52	1380.72	55.56%	36.30%	-44.15	2-7
1964-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-36	1398.37	1502.79	31.00%	61.29%	-18.98	2-8
1964-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-30	1379.39	1515.66	28.96%	63.57%	-13.73	2-9
1964-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-52	1365.66	1596.07	19.63%	74.39%	-17.41	2-10
1964-09-13	New York Giants	W 38-7	1438.33	1557.04	30.99%	61.31%	+51.85	1-0
1964-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-28	1490.18	1424.21	56.13%	35.76%	-17.15	1-1
1964-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-28	1473.03	1540.76	37.38%	54.41%	-16.63	1-2
1964-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-7	1456.40	1515.40	38.54%	53.19%	+30.53	2-2
1964-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-35	1486.93	1384.03	59.22%	32.89%	-34.92	2-3
1964-10-18	@ New York Giants	W 23-17	1452.01	1470.34	42.18%	49.44%	+18.68	3-3
1964-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-10	1470.69	1484.03	42.88%	48.72%	+36.85	4-3
1964-11-01	Washington Redskins	L 10-21	1507.54	1424.41	58.47%	33.58%	-29.55	4-4
1964-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-20	1477.99	1483.61	43.97%	47.61%	-21.65	4-5
1964-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1456.34	1507.09	37.75%	54.02%	+14.34	5-5
1964-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-38	1470.68	1482.40	45.12%	46.45%	-35.05	5-6
1964-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1435.63	1609.07	23.54%	69.76%	-13.90	5-7
1964-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-14	1421.73	1445.83	43.36%	48.23%	+23.57	6-7
1964-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 34-36	1445.30	1549.73	31.00%	61.30%	-6.93	6-8
1964-09-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-26	1517.57	1447.20	56.74%	35.19%	-30.01	0-1
1964-09-20	New York Giants	W 27-24	1487.56	1505.19	44.28%	47.30%	+12.68	1-1
1964-09-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-17	1500.24	1462.44	52.20%	39.49%	+15.16	2-1
1964-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-21	1515.40	1456.40	53.19%	38.54%	-30.52	2-2
1964-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-7	1484.88	1579.36	32.19%	59.99%	+36.50	3-2
1964-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1521.38	1452.70	54.55%	37.26%	-37.35	3-3
1964-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-34	1484.03	1470.69	48.72%	42.88%	-36.85	3-4
1964-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-30	1447.18	1575.98	29.81%	62.62%	-17.00	3-5
1964-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 30-34	1430.18	1470.61	39.14%	52.57%	-12.28	3-6
1964-11-15	Washington Redskins	L 0-30	1417.90	1440.42	43.58%	48.00%	-37.18	3-7
1964-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 44-17	1380.72	1442.52	36.30%	55.56%	+44.14	4-7
1964-11-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-21	1424.86	1517.45	34.17%	57.83%	-5.39	4-8
1964-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1419.47	1521.77	31.25%	61.02%	+24.53	5-8
1964-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1444.00	1422.26	47.89%	43.69%	-12.83	5-9
1964-09-13	Detroit Lions	L 17-26	1440.90	1524.62	35.30%	56.63%	-16.69	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1424.21	1490.18	35.76%	56.13%	+17.15	1-1
1964-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-23	1441.36	1532.06	34.41%	57.58%	-17.16	1-2
1964-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 31-21	1424.20	1510.09	35.02%	56.92%	+27.48	2-2
1964-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1451.68	1592.63	26.87%	65.92%	-13.44	2-3
1964-10-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-42	1438.24	1445.07	43.80%	47.79%	-36.09	2-4
1964-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1402.15	1490.05	34.77%	57.19%	-12.25	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-37	1389.90	1663.42	15.21%	79.82%	-12.91	2-6
1964-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1376.99	1470.04	32.36%	59.80%	-21.08	2-7
1964-11-15	Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1355.91	1628.21	16.31%	78.45%	+36.92	3-7
1964-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-23	1392.83	1458.51	35.80%	56.10%	-7.98	3-8
1964-11-29	Baltimore Colts	L 3-14	1384.85	1707.77	12.91%	82.71%	-6.58	3-9
1964-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-7	1378.27	1434.25	38.95%	52.77%	+37.11	4-9
1964-12-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1415.38	1554.19	27.11%	65.65%	-17.67	4-10
1964-09-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 16-6	1511.88	1466.80	51.23%	40.43%	+20.02	1-0
1964-09-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 33-33	1531.90	1540.92	43.49%	48.10%	+0.16	1-0
1964-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1532.06	1441.36	57.58%	34.41%	+17.17	2-0
1964-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1549.23	1394.45	65.87%	26.91%	+10.42	3-0
1964-10-12	Baltimore Colts	L 27-47	1559.65	1583.45	43.40%	48.19%	-30.25	3-1
1964-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 38-24	1529.40	1418.95	62.08%	30.29%	+17.92	4-1
1964-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-31	1547.32	1415.84	64.75%	27.91%	-41.57	4-2
1964-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1505.75	1428.39	55.75%	36.12%	-35.14	4-3
1964-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-30	1470.61	1430.18	52.57%	39.14%	+12.28	5-3
1964-11-15	New York Giants	T 10-10	1482.89	1442.03	52.64%	39.08%	-0.49	5-3
1964-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-13	1482.40	1470.68	46.45%	45.12%	+35.05	6-3
1964-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-20	1517.45	1424.86	57.83%	34.17%	+5.39	7-3
1964-12-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-19	1522.84	1622.96	33.24%	58.85%	+26.89	8-3
1964-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-34	1549.73	1445.30	61.30%	31.00%	+6.93	9-3
1964-09-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-27	1440.22	1519.80	35.83%	56.06%	-21.12	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 18-24	1419.10	1446.77	40.88%	50.77%	-15.67	0-2
1964-09-25	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1403.43	1492.51	32.85%	59.27%	-8.98	0-3
1964-10-04	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-23	1394.45	1549.23	26.91%	65.87%	-10.42	0-4
1964-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-20	1384.03	1486.93	32.89%	59.22%	+34.92	1-4
1964-10-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-38	1418.95	1529.40	30.29%	62.08%	-17.92	1-5
1964-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 27-20	1401.03	1494.58	34.05%	57.96%	+23.38	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-10	1424.41	1507.54	33.58%	58.47%	+29.55	3-5
1964-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-34	1453.96	1592.98	27.08%	65.68%	-13.54	3-6
1964-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-0	1440.42	1417.90	48.00%	43.58%	+37.19	4-6
1964-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-16	1477.61	1492.75	44.63%	46.94%	+25.18	5-6
1964-11-29	New York Giants	W 36-21	1502.79	1398.37	61.29%	31.00%	+18.98	6-6
1964-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1521.77	1419.47	61.02%	31.25%	-24.53	6-7
1964-12-13	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-45	1497.24	1669.08	23.70%	69.57%	-19.78	6-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-12-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-27	1688.87	1613.49	59.70%	40.30%	-44.09	0-1
1964-12-27	Baltimore Colts	W 27-0	1613.49	1688.87	40.30%	59.70%	+44.08	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-11-15	16.31%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1355.91	24	Green Bay Packers	1628.21	14
2	1964-12-06	20.57%	Detroit Lions	1508.92	31	@ Baltimore Colts	1714.35	14
3	1964-10-04	25.97%	Minnesota Vikings	1453.26	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1602.74	23
4	1964-10-25	27.91%	Dallas Cowboys	1415.84	31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1547.32	13
5	1964-10-25	29.98%	Los Angeles Rams	1481.16	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1594.28	17
6	1964-09-20	30.59%	Baltimore Colts	1491.72	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1599.63	20
7	1964-09-13	30.99%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1438.33	38	New York Giants	1557.04	7
8	1964-12-06	31.25%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1419.47	14	@ Washington Redskins	1521.77	7
9	1964-10-10	32.19%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1484.88	23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1579.36	7
10	1964-10-11	32.89%	@ Washington Redskins	1384.03	35	Philadelphia Eagles	1486.93	20
11	1964-12-06	33.24%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1522.84	28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1622.96	19
12	1964-11-01	33.58%	Washington Redskins	1424.41	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1507.54	10
13	1964-10-25	34.05%	@ Washington Redskins	1401.03	27	Chicago Bears	1494.58	20
14	1964-11-15	34.68%	Chicago Bears	1430.87	34	@ Los Angeles Rams	1505.26	24
15	1964-10-04	35.02%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1424.20	31	Chicago Bears	1510.09	21
16	1964-09-13	35.19%	Los Angeles Rams	1447.20	26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1517.57	14
17	1964-09-20	35.76%	San Francisco 49ers	1424.21	28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1490.18	24
18	1964-11-01	36.12%	@ New York Giants	1428.39	34	St. Louis Cardinals	1505.75	17
19	1964-11-22	36.30%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1380.72	44	@ New York Giants	1442.52	17
20	1964-11-26	36.93%	Chicago Bears	1466.48	27	@ Detroit Lions	1523.47	24
21	1964-09-27	37.17%	@ Baltimore Colts	1501.09	52	Chicago Bears	1570.40	0
22	1964-10-18	37.26%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1452.70	30	Pittsburgh Steelers	1521.38	10
23	1964-11-15	37.75%	Philadelphia Eagles	1456.34	17	@ Dallas Cowboys	1507.09	14
24	1964-10-04	38.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1456.40	21	Pittsburgh Steelers	1515.40	7
25	1964-12-06	38.95%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1378.27	28	Los Angeles Rams	1434.25	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1964-09-27	60.32	@ Baltimore Colts	52	1501.09	37.17%	Chicago Bears	0	1570.40	54.63%
2	1964-09-13	51.85	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1438.33	30.99%	New York Giants	7	1557.04	61.31%
3	1964-12-06	45.27	Detroit Lions	31	1508.92	20.57%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1714.35	73.27%
4	1964-11-22	44.15	Pittsburgh Steelers	44	1380.72	36.30%	@ New York Giants	17	1442.52	55.56%
5	1964-12-27 *	44.09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1613.49	40.30%	Baltimore Colts	0	1688.87	59.70%
6	1964-10-25	41.57	Dallas Cowboys	31	1415.84	27.91%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	13	1547.32	64.75%
7	1964-10-25	37.94	Baltimore Colts	34	1625.48	50.00%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1589.02	41.63%
8	1964-10-18	37.35	@ Minnesota Vikings	30	1452.70	37.26%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1521.38	54.55%
9	1964-11-15	37.19	Washington Redskins	30	1440.42	48.00%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1417.90	43.58%
10	1964-12-06	37.11	@ San Francisco 49ers	28	1378.27	38.95%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1434.25	52.77%
11	1964-11-15	36.92	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1355.91	16.31%	Green Bay Packers	14	1628.21	78.45%
12	1964-10-25	36.85	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1470.69	42.88%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1484.03	48.72%
13	1964-10-10	36.50	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1484.88	32.19%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1579.36	59.99%
14	1964-10-18	36.09	@ Los Angeles Rams	42	1445.07	47.79%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1438.24	43.80%
15	1964-11-01	35.14	@ New York Giants	34	1428.39	36.12%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1505.75	55.75%
16	1964-11-22	35.05	St. Louis Cardinals	38	1482.40	46.45%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1470.68	45.12%
17	1964-10-11	34.92	@ Washington Redskins	35	1384.03	32.89%	Philadelphia Eagles	20	1486.93	59.22%
18	1964-11-01	32.27	Green Bay Packers	42	1564.33	53.62%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1502.30	38.14%
19	1964-11-08	31.61	@ Green Bay Packers	30	1596.60	49.39%	Detroit Lions	7	1578.58	42.22%
20	1964-10-11	31.32	@ Chicago Bears	38	1482.61	47.70%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1476.39	43.88%
21	1964-12-13	30.88	Minnesota Vikings	41	1529.39	53.95%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1464.97	37.82%
22	1964-10-04	30.77	@ Detroit Lions	26	1528.25	50.64%	New York Giants	3	1501.50	41.01%
23	1964-10-04	30.53	@ Philadelphia Eagles	21	1456.40	38.54%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1515.40	53.19%
24	1964-10-12	30.25	Baltimore Colts	47	1583.45	48.19%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	27	1559.65	43.40%
25	1964-09-13	30.01	Los Angeles Rams	26	1447.20	35.19%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1517.57	56.74%