1964 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns (1st)

4th Title

Last Title: 1955

Runner-Up

Baltimore Colts

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1959

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Colts

3.03 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.97 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

3.50 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.50 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	3	1	.750	—	415	293	+122	8.93	+1.57
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9	3	2	.714	0.5	357	331	+26	8.04	+1.96
3	Philadelphia Eagles	6	8	0	.429	4.5	312	313	-1	6.47	-0.47
4	Washington Redskins	6	8	0	.429	4.5	307	305	+2	5.87	+0.13
5	Dallas Cowboys	5	8	1	.393	5	250	289	-39	6.30	-0.80
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	9	0	.357	5.5	253	315	-62	6.61	-1.61
7	New York Giants	2	10	2	.214	7.5	241	399	-158	6.50	-3.50

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	12	2	0	.857	—	428	225	+203	8.97	+3.03
2	Minnesota Vikings	8	5	1	.607	3.5	355	296	+59	6.56	+1.94
3	Green Bay Packers	8	5	1	.607	3.5	342	245	+97	8.81	-0.31
4	Detroit Lions	7	5	2	.571	4	280	260	+20	7.34	+0.66
5	Los Angeles Rams	5	7	2	.429	6	283	339	-56	6.10	-0.10
6	Chicago Bears	5	9	0	.357	7	260	379	-119	6.72	-1.72
7	San Francisco 49ers	4	10	0	.286	8	236	330	-94	4.76	-0.76

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Cleveland Browns (1st) 27

Baltimore Colts 0

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1689	12	8.97	+3.03	99.41%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Green Bay Packers	West	1647	8.5	8.81	-0.31	53.97%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1613	10.5	8.93	+1.57	88.02%	1	5	7	8	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	West	1572	8	7.34	+0.66	82.68%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	West	1560	8.5	6.56	+1.94	91.60%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1557	10	8.04	+1.96	95.20%	0	4	6	8	9	10	14
Washington Redskins	East	1477	6	5.87	+0.13	75.03%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1438	6	6.47	-0.47	63.32%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	1435	5.5	6.30	-0.80	45.63%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Chicago Bears	West	1434	5	6.72	-1.72	36.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1431	5	6.61	-1.61	39.03%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Los Angeles Rams	West	1399	6	6.10	-0.10	71.02%	0	3	4	6	7	8	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	1398	4	4.76	-0.76	57.21%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New York Giants	East	1348	3	6.50	-3.50	8.36%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Giants	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.51%	1.53%	1.02%	1.02%	—	0.51%	4.59%
7–13	0.51%	3.06%	1.53%	5.61%	3.06%	1.53%	0.51%	15.82%
14–20	1.53%	1.53%	5.10%	7.14%	3.06%	2.55%	2.55%	23.47%
21–27	1.02%	5.61%	7.14%	8.16%	4.08%	2.55%	1.02%	29.59%
28–34	1.02%	3.06%	3.06%	4.08%	3.06%	0.51%	—	14.80%
35–41	—	1.53%	2.55%	2.55%	0.51%	—	—	7.14%
42+	0.51%	0.51%	2.55%	1.02%	—	—	—	4.59%
Total	4.59%	15.82%	23.47%	29.59%	14.80%	7.14%	4.59%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.04	22.04	+0.00
SD	10.40	10.40	16.08
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	52	52	+52
Min	0	0	-52

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.57	16.07	+14.50
SD	12.57	11.23	18.19
CV	0.41	0.70	—
Max	52	34	+52
Min	14	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.57	27.07	-8.50
SD	12.56	11.01	17.61
CV	0.68	0.41	—
Max	38	52	+21
Min	0	10	-52

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.64	20.93	+8.71
SD	11.15	6.78	13.21
CV	0.38	0.32	—
Max	52	33	+32
Min	7	6	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.86	20.64	-2.79
SD	7.71	8.86	12.34
CV	0.43	0.43	—
Max	31	45	+18
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	18.57	+1.43
SD	10.07	10.99	16.74
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	37	37	+23
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	57.14%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.43	17.50	+6.93
SD	9.36	7.52	12.30
CV	0.38	0.43	—
Max	45	27	+29
Min	14	3	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	24.21	-4.00
SD	8.85	10.06	15.99
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	42	38	+28
Min	7	10	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	50.00%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.36	21.14	+4.21
SD	8.41	9.13	14.68
CV	0.33	0.43	—
Max	41	42	+27
Min	13	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.21	28.50	-11.29
SD	7.75	13.08	14.39
CV	0.45	0.46	—
Max	34	52	+17
Min	3	10	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	22.36	-0.07
SD	8.59	11.43	15.76
CV	0.39	0.51	—
Max	38	38	+31
Min	10	7	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.07	22.50	-4.43
SD	11.01	8.87	15.73
CV	0.61	0.39	—
Max	44	34	+27
Min	0	7	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	64.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	23.57	-6.71
SD	9.02	8.79	14.46
CV	0.54	0.37	—
Max	31	42	+21
Min	3	7	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	23.64	+1.86
SD	9.41	11.59	12.78
CV	0.37	0.49	—
Max	38	47	+25
Min	10	6	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.93	21.79	+0.14
SD	8.84	11.69	15.37
CV	0.40	0.54	—
Max	36	45	+30
Min	7	0	-28

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts	12	8.97	+3.03
2	St. Louis Cardinals	10	8.04	+1.96
3	Minnesota Vikings	8.5	6.56	+1.94
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.5	8.93	+1.57
5	Detroit Lions	8	7.34	+0.66

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	3	6.50	-3.50
2	Chicago Bears	5	6.72	-1.72
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	6.61	-1.61
4	Dallas Cowboys	5.5	6.30	-0.80
5	San Francisco 49ers	4	4.76	-0.76

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Colts	11	Sep 20 – Nov 29	1 in 525
2	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 18
3	Dallas Cowboys	3	Oct 25 – Nov 8	1 in 17
4	Chicago Bears	3	Nov 15 – Nov 26	1 in 14
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 40
2	Dallas Cowboys	4	Nov 15 – Dec 6	1 in 21
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	Nov 15 – Dec 6	1 in 20
4	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 18 – Nov 8	1 in 17
5	San Francisco 49ers	5	Oct 11 – Nov 8	1 in 12

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	23.28%	13.53%	8.55%	5.12%	3.00%	1.45%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	24.43%	17.61%	12.93%	9.56%	6.76%	4.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	12.67%	15.65%	16.56%	16.55%	15.89%	14.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	11.62%	14.69%	16.26%	17.14%	17.28%	16.27%
New York Giants	6.50%	11.33%	14.76%	16.27%	17.19%	17.38%	16.57%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	9.89%	13.25%	15.72%	17.30%	18.53%	19.72%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	6.78%	10.51%	13.71%	17.14%	21.16%	27.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	26.98%	16.19%	9.85%	5.43%	2.59%	0.77%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	26.26%	17.04%	10.85%	6.61%	3.45%	1.29%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	16.21%	19.82%	18.52%	15.81%	12.03%	6.50%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	11.41%	16.26%	18.65%	18.90%	17.00%	11.13%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	10.22%	15.04%	18.06%	19.69%	18.66%	12.70%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	7.04%	11.40%	16.08%	20.19%	23.00%	18.98%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	1.88%	4.27%	7.99%	13.37%	23.27%	48.63%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Baltimore Colts	22.95%	18.40%	14.59%	11.43%	8.79%	6.59%	5.18%	3.91%	2.93%	2.13%	1.45%	0.95%	0.46%	0.23%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	23.10%	18.98%	13.34%	10.99%	8.35%	6.53%	5.23%	3.99%	3.10%	2.35%	1.74%	1.19%	0.82%	0.29%
Green Bay Packers	21.25%	16.61%	14.17%	11.04%	9.07%	7.20%	5.66%	4.40%	3.56%	2.69%	1.87%	1.33%	0.75%	0.41%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.89%	12.28%	12.05%	11.70%	9.68%	8.99%	7.38%	6.56%	5.44%	4.68%	3.78%	3.07%	2.17%	1.33%
Detroit Lions	5.81%	6.79%	8.62%	8.63%	9.69%	9.34%	9.06%	8.58%	7.89%	7.28%	6.07%	5.42%	3.92%	2.89%
Chicago Bears	2.89%	4.17%	5.83%	6.63%	7.82%	8.24%	8.85%	9.02%	8.86%	8.94%	8.52%	7.97%	6.44%	5.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.53%	4.27%	5.47%	6.68%	7.38%	8.19%	8.54%	8.64%	8.66%	8.74%	8.57%	8.10%	8.04%	6.19%
Minnesota Vikings	2.40%	3.69%	5.20%	5.94%	7.28%	7.66%	8.49%	8.86%	9.40%	9.11%	9.20%	8.87%	7.41%	6.49%
New York Giants	2.04%	3.60%	4.85%	6.12%	6.99%	7.81%	8.14%	8.68%	8.90%	9.15%	9.14%	8.96%	8.86%	6.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.96%	3.57%	4.81%	6.33%	6.76%	7.99%	8.14%	8.72%	8.87%	9.05%	9.04%	8.83%	8.53%	7.39%
Dallas Cowboys	1.72%	3.13%	4.09%	5.47%	6.16%	7.13%	7.69%	8.45%	8.81%	9.29%	9.67%	9.84%	10.12%	8.45%
Los Angeles Rams	1.32%	2.21%	3.48%	4.18%	5.51%	6.13%	7.51%	8.26%	9.22%	9.85%	10.46%	11.18%	10.33%	10.35%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	1.91%	2.64%	3.73%	4.69%	5.84%	6.56%	7.58%	8.54%	9.51%	10.71%	11.53%	13.56%	12.26%
San Francisco 49ers	0.19%	0.39%	0.86%	1.15%	1.82%	2.38%	3.55%	4.34%	5.82%	7.23%	9.78%	12.77%	18.60%	31.13%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	54.93%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	75.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	91.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	93.27%
New York Giants	6.50%	93.49%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	94.42%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	96.60%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	61.81%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	65.50%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	88.89%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	93.35%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	94.37%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	96.69%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	99.40%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	38.19%	26.32%
Green Bay Packers	34.50%	22.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	45.07%	21.68%
St. Louis Cardinals	24.70%	10.01%
Detroit Lions	11.11%	6.02%
Minnesota Vikings	5.63%	2.90%
Chicago Bears	6.65%	2.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.02%	1.96%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.73%	1.72%
Dallas Cowboys	5.58%	1.42%
New York Giants	6.50%	1.17%
Los Angeles Rams	3.31%	1.06%
Washington Redskins	3.40%	1.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.60%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			11.03%	1.85%					2.21%	2.10%	2.58%		5.73%	0.82%
Chicago Bears			0.77%	0.14%					0.26%	0.20%	0.30%		0.53%	0.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.20%	2.32%			2.58%	6.60%	1.21%	1.54%				0.22%
Dallas Cowboys	0.41%	0.17%			0.21%	0.39%	0.10%	0.10%				0.03%
Detroit Lions			2.05%	0.52%					0.43%	0.53%	0.63%		1.56%	0.30%
Green Bay Packers			7.97%	1.29%					2.05%	1.85%	2.21%		5.90%	0.95%
Los Angeles Rams			0.36%	0.10%					0.13%	0.07%	0.09%		0.25%	0.06%
Minnesota Vikings			1.14%	0.24%					0.22%	0.26%	0.24%		0.67%	0.13%
New York Giants	0.34%	0.14%			0.14%	0.38%	0.08%	0.07%				0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.48%	0.24%			0.24%	0.56%	0.09%	0.11%				0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.55%	0.27%			0.29%	0.62%	0.08%	0.12%				0.02%
San Francisco 49ers			0.07%	0.02%					0.03%	0.01%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.63%	1.10%			1.50%	3.37%	0.61%	0.72%				0.08%
Washington Redskins	0.25%	0.10%			0.14%	0.36%	0.07%	0.07%				0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	62.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Baltimore Colts		62.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.99%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Baltimore Colts 62.01% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.01%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 37.99% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.99%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-09-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-34	1517.23	1462.78	52.55%	39.16%	-25.51	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-20	1491.72	1599.63	30.59%	61.75%	+9.37	1-1
1964-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 52-0	1501.09	1570.40	37.17%	54.63%	+60.32	2-1
1964-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-20	1561.41	1498.43	55.72%	36.15%	+22.04	3-1
1964-10-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 47-27	1583.45	1559.65	48.19%	43.40%	+30.25	4-1
1964-10-18	Green Bay Packers	W 24-21	1613.70	1606.06	47.90%	43.68%	+11.78	5-1
1964-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-0	1625.48	1589.02	50.00%	41.63%	+37.94	6-1
1964-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-7	1663.42	1389.90	79.82%	15.21%	+12.90	7-1
1964-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-24	1676.32	1443.02	74.69%	19.39%	+12.16	8-1
1964-11-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1688.48	1491.12	72.41%	21.29%	+5.80	9-1
1964-11-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-7	1694.28	1477.62	72.96%	20.83%	+13.49	10-1
1964-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1707.77	1384.85	82.71%	12.91%	+6.58	11-1
1964-12-06	Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1714.35	1508.92	73.27%	20.57%	-45.27	11-2
1964-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 45-17	1669.08	1497.24	69.57%	23.70%	+19.79	12-2
1964-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-23	1579.29	1576.34	45.19%	46.38%	-23.28	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1556.01	1488.29	54.41%	37.38%	+14.39	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-52	1570.40	1501.09	54.63%	37.17%	-60.31	1-2
1964-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1510.09	1424.20	56.92%	35.02%	-27.48	1-3
1964-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-17	1482.61	1476.39	47.70%	43.88%	+31.31	2-3
1964-10-18	Detroit Lions	L 0-10	1513.92	1569.68	38.98%	52.74%	-19.34	2-4
1964-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1494.58	1401.03	57.96%	34.05%	-23.38	2-5
1964-11-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1471.20	1457.41	48.79%	42.81%	-28.18	2-6
1964-11-08	Baltimore Colts	L 24-40	1443.02	1676.32	19.39%	74.69%	-12.15	2-7
1964-11-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-24	1430.87	1505.26	34.68%	57.29%	+27.64	3-7
1964-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1458.51	1392.83	56.10%	35.80%	+7.97	4-7
1964-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1466.48	1523.47	36.93%	54.89%	+14.55	5-7
1964-12-05	Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1481.03	1633.52	27.16%	65.59%	-16.06	5-8
1964-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-41	1464.97	1529.39	37.82%	53.95%	-30.88	5-9
1964-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-13	1519.80	1440.22	56.06%	35.83%	+21.12	1-0
1964-09-20	St. Louis Cardinals	T 33-33	1540.92	1531.90	48.10%	43.49%	-0.16	1-0
1964-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-20	1540.76	1473.03	54.41%	37.38%	+16.62	2-0
1964-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-6	1557.38	1447.28	62.03%	30.33%	+21.98	3-0
1964-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-23	1579.36	1484.88	59.99%	32.19%	-36.50	3-1
1964-10-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1542.86	1425.69	61.11%	31.17%	+9.85	4-1
1964-10-25	New York Giants	W 42-20	1552.71	1451.66	60.85%	31.40%	+23.27	5-1
1964-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1575.98	1447.18	62.62%	29.81%	+17.00	6-1
1964-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 34-24	1592.98	1453.96	65.68%	27.08%	+13.54	7-1
1964-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 37-21	1606.52	1546.97	55.25%	36.59%	+23.03	8-1
1964-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-28	1629.55	1591.30	50.26%	41.38%	-20.48	8-2
1964-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-24	1609.07	1435.63	69.76%	23.54%	+13.89	9-2
1964-12-06	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 19-28	1622.96	1522.84	58.85%	33.24%	-26.89	9-3
1964-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 52-20	1596.07	1365.66	74.39%	19.63%	+17.42	10-3
1964-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-16	1466.80	1511.88	40.43%	51.23%	-20.03	0-1
1964-09-20	Washington Redskins	W 24-18	1446.77	1419.10	50.77%	40.88%	+15.67	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1462.44	1500.24	39.49%	52.20%	-15.16	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-27	1447.28	1557.38	30.33%	62.03%	-21.98	1-3
1964-10-11	New York Giants	T 13-13	1425.30	1470.73	40.39%	51.28%	+0.39	1-3
1964-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-20	1425.69	1542.86	31.17%	61.11%	-9.85	1-4
1964-10-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-13	1415.84	1547.32	27.91%	64.75%	+41.57	2-4
1964-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1457.41	1471.20	42.81%	48.79%	+28.18	3-4
1964-11-08	@ New York Giants	W 31-21	1485.59	1463.53	47.94%	43.65%	+21.50	4-4
1964-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1507.09	1456.34	54.02%	37.75%	-14.34	4-5
1964-11-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-28	1492.75	1477.61	46.94%	44.63%	-25.18	4-6
1964-11-29	Green Bay Packers	L 21-45	1467.57	1611.78	28.07%	64.57%	-21.74	4-7
1964-12-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-24	1445.83	1421.73	48.23%	43.36%	-23.57	4-8
1964-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1422.26	1444.00	43.69%	47.89%	+12.82	5-8
1964-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-17	1524.62	1440.90	56.63%	35.30%	+16.69	1-0
1964-09-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 17-17	1541.31	1477.21	53.91%	37.86%	-0.58	1-0
1964-09-28	Green Bay Packers	L 10-14	1540.73	1590.25	39.83%	51.86%	-12.48	1-1
1964-10-04	New York Giants	W 26-3	1528.25	1501.50	50.64%	41.01%	+30.77	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1559.02	1463.36	58.25%	33.79%	+10.66	3-1
1964-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1569.68	1513.92	52.74%	38.98%	+19.34	4-1
1964-10-25	Baltimore Colts	L 0-34	1589.02	1625.48	41.63%	50.00%	-37.93	4-2
1964-11-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-17	1551.09	1511.11	52.51%	39.20%	+27.49	5-2
1964-11-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-30	1578.58	1596.60	42.22%	49.39%	-31.61	5-3
1964-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-37	1546.97	1606.52	36.59%	55.25%	-23.04	5-4
1964-11-22	Minnesota Vikings	T 23-23	1523.93	1485.32	52.32%	39.38%	-0.46	5-4
1964-11-26	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1523.47	1466.48	54.89%	36.93%	-14.55	5-5
1964-12-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-14	1508.92	1714.35	20.57%	73.27%	+45.27	6-5
1964-12-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1554.19	1415.38	65.65%	27.11%	+17.66	7-5
1964-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 23-12	1576.34	1579.29	46.38%	45.19%	+23.29	1-0
1964-09-20	Baltimore Colts	L 20-21	1599.63	1491.72	61.75%	30.59%	-9.38	1-1
1964-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 14-10	1590.25	1540.73	51.86%	39.83%	+12.49	2-1
1964-10-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-24	1602.74	1453.26	66.95%	25.97%	-10.11	2-2
1964-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1592.63	1451.68	65.92%	26.87%	+13.43	3-2
1964-10-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-24	1606.06	1613.70	43.68%	47.90%	-11.78	3-3
1964-10-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-27	1594.28	1481.16	62.42%	29.98%	-29.95	3-4
1964-11-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-13	1564.33	1502.30	53.62%	38.14%	+32.27	4-4
1964-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 30-7	1596.60	1578.58	49.39%	42.22%	+31.61	5-4
1964-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1628.21	1355.91	78.45%	16.31%	-36.91	5-5
1964-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1591.30	1629.55	41.38%	50.26%	+20.48	6-5
1964-11-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 45-21	1611.78	1467.57	64.57%	28.07%	+21.74	7-5
1964-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1633.52	1481.03	65.59%	27.16%	+16.06	8-5
1964-12-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1649.58	1397.14	76.59%	17.83%	-2.16	8-5
1964-09-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-14	1447.20	1517.57	35.19%	56.74%	+30.01	1-0
1964-09-19	Detroit Lions	T 17-17	1477.21	1541.31	37.86%	53.91%	+0.58	1-0
1964-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-13	1477.79	1473.90	47.37%	44.21%	+20.64	2-0
1964-10-04	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1498.43	1561.41	36.15%	55.72%	-22.04	2-1
1964-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-38	1476.39	1482.61	43.88%	47.70%	-31.32	2-2
1964-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-14	1445.07	1438.24	47.79%	43.80%	+36.09	3-2
1964-10-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-17	1481.16	1594.28	29.98%	62.42%	+29.95	4-2
1964-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-37	1511.11	1551.09	39.20%	52.51%	-27.50	4-3
1964-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1483.61	1477.99	47.61%	43.97%	+21.65	5-3
1964-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-34	1505.26	1430.87	57.29%	34.68%	-27.64	5-4
1964-11-22	Baltimore Colts	L 7-24	1477.62	1694.28	20.83%	72.96%	-13.50	5-5
1964-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-34	1464.12	1485.79	41.71%	49.91%	-29.87	5-6
1964-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-28	1434.25	1378.27	52.77%	38.95%	-37.11	5-7
1964-12-13	Green Bay Packers	T 24-24	1397.14	1649.58	17.83%	76.59%	+2.16	5-7
1964-09-13	Baltimore Colts	W 34-24	1462.78	1517.23	39.16%	52.55%	+25.51	1-0
1964-09-20	Chicago Bears	L 28-34	1488.29	1556.01	37.38%	54.41%	-14.39	1-1
1964-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-22	1473.90	1477.79	44.21%	47.37%	-20.64	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-23	1453.26	1602.74	25.97%	66.95%	+10.10	2-2
1964-10-11	Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1463.36	1559.02	33.79%	58.25%	-10.66	2-3
1964-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-10	1452.70	1521.38	37.26%	54.55%	+37.35	3-3
1964-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-22	1490.05	1402.15	57.19%	34.77%	+12.25	4-3
1964-11-01	Green Bay Packers	L 13-42	1502.30	1564.33	38.14%	53.62%	-32.26	4-4
1964-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1470.04	1376.99	59.80%	32.36%	+21.08	5-4
1964-11-15	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1491.12	1688.48	21.29%	72.41%	-5.80	5-5
1964-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	T 23-23	1485.32	1523.93	39.38%	52.32%	+0.47	5-5
1964-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-13	1485.79	1464.12	49.91%	41.71%	+29.87	6-5
1964-12-06	@ New York Giants	W 30-21	1515.66	1379.39	63.57%	28.96%	+13.73	7-5
1964-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-14	1529.39	1464.97	53.95%	37.82%	+30.88	8-5
1964-09-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1557.04	1438.33	61.31%	30.99%	-51.85	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1505.19	1487.56	47.30%	44.28%	-12.68	0-2
1964-09-25	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1492.51	1403.43	59.27%	32.85%	+8.99	1-2
1964-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-26	1501.50	1528.25	41.01%	50.64%	-30.77	1-3
1964-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 13-13	1470.73	1425.30	51.28%	40.39%	-0.39	1-3
1964-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1470.34	1452.01	49.44%	42.18%	-18.68	1-4
1964-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-42	1451.66	1552.71	31.40%	60.85%	-23.27	1-5
1964-11-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-17	1428.39	1505.75	36.12%	55.75%	+35.14	2-5
1964-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1463.53	1485.59	43.65%	47.94%	-21.50	2-6
1964-11-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 10-10	1442.03	1482.89	39.08%	52.64%	+0.49	2-6
1964-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-44	1442.52	1380.72	55.56%	36.30%	-44.15	2-7
1964-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-36	1398.37	1502.79	31.00%	61.29%	-18.98	2-8
1964-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-30	1379.39	1515.66	28.96%	63.57%	-13.73	2-9
1964-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-52	1365.66	1596.07	19.63%	74.39%	-17.41	2-10
1964-09-13	New York Giants	W 38-7	1438.33	1557.04	30.99%	61.31%	+51.85	1-0
1964-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-28	1490.18	1424.21	56.13%	35.76%	-17.15	1-1
1964-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-28	1473.03	1540.76	37.38%	54.41%	-16.63	1-2
1964-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-7	1456.40	1515.40	38.54%	53.19%	+30.53	2-2
1964-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-35	1486.93	1384.03	59.22%	32.89%	-34.92	2-3
1964-10-18	@ New York Giants	W 23-17	1452.01	1470.34	42.18%	49.44%	+18.68	3-3
1964-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-10	1470.69	1484.03	42.88%	48.72%	+36.85	4-3
1964-11-01	Washington Redskins	L 10-21	1507.54	1424.41	58.47%	33.58%	-29.55	4-4
1964-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-20	1477.99	1483.61	43.97%	47.61%	-21.65	4-5
1964-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 17-14	1456.34	1507.09	37.75%	54.02%	+14.34	5-5
1964-11-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-38	1470.68	1482.40	45.12%	46.45%	-35.05	5-6
1964-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-38	1435.63	1609.07	23.54%	69.76%	-13.90	5-7
1964-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-14	1421.73	1445.83	43.36%	48.23%	+23.57	6-7
1964-12-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 34-36	1445.30	1549.73	31.00%	61.30%	-6.93	6-8
1964-09-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-26	1517.57	1447.20	56.74%	35.19%	-30.01	0-1
1964-09-20	New York Giants	W 27-24	1487.56	1505.19	44.28%	47.30%	+12.68	1-1
1964-09-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-17	1500.24	1462.44	52.20%	39.49%	+15.16	2-1
1964-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-21	1515.40	1456.40	53.19%	38.54%	-30.52	2-2
1964-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-7	1484.88	1579.36	32.19%	59.99%	+36.50	3-2
1964-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1521.38	1452.70	54.55%	37.26%	-37.35	3-3
1964-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-34	1484.03	1470.69	48.72%	42.88%	-36.85	3-4
1964-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-30	1447.18	1575.98	29.81%	62.62%	-17.00	3-5
1964-11-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 30-34	1430.18	1470.61	39.14%	52.57%	-12.28	3-6
1964-11-15	Washington Redskins	L 0-30	1417.90	1440.42	43.58%	48.00%	-37.18	3-7
1964-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 44-17	1380.72	1442.52	36.30%	55.56%	+44.14	4-7
1964-11-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-21	1424.86	1517.45	34.17%	57.83%	-5.39	4-8
1964-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1419.47	1521.77	31.25%	61.02%	+24.53	5-8
1964-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1444.00	1422.26	47.89%	43.69%	-12.83	5-9
1964-09-13	Detroit Lions	L 17-26	1440.90	1524.62	35.30%	56.63%	-16.69	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1424.21	1490.18	35.76%	56.13%	+17.15	1-1
1964-09-27	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-23	1441.36	1532.06	34.41%	57.58%	-17.16	1-2
1964-10-04	Chicago Bears	W 31-21	1424.20	1510.09	35.02%	56.92%	+27.48	2-2
1964-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1451.68	1592.63	26.87%	65.92%	-13.44	2-3
1964-10-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-42	1438.24	1445.07	43.80%	47.79%	-36.09	2-4
1964-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1402.15	1490.05	34.77%	57.19%	-12.25	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-37	1389.90	1663.42	15.21%	79.82%	-12.91	2-6
1964-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1376.99	1470.04	32.36%	59.80%	-21.08	2-7
1964-11-15	Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1355.91	1628.21	16.31%	78.45%	+36.92	3-7
1964-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-23	1392.83	1458.51	35.80%	56.10%	-7.98	3-8
1964-11-29	Baltimore Colts	L 3-14	1384.85	1707.77	12.91%	82.71%	-6.58	3-9
1964-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-7	1378.27	1434.25	38.95%	52.77%	+37.11	4-9
1964-12-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1415.38	1554.19	27.11%	65.65%	-17.67	4-10
1964-09-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 16-6	1511.88	1466.80	51.23%	40.43%	+20.02	1-0
1964-09-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 33-33	1531.90	1540.92	43.49%	48.10%	+0.16	1-0
1964-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-13	1532.06	1441.36	57.58%	34.41%	+17.17	2-0
1964-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1549.23	1394.45	65.87%	26.91%	+10.42	3-0
1964-10-12	Baltimore Colts	L 27-47	1559.65	1583.45	43.40%	48.19%	-30.25	3-1
1964-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 38-24	1529.40	1418.95	62.08%	30.29%	+17.92	4-1
1964-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-31	1547.32	1415.84	64.75%	27.91%	-41.57	4-2
1964-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 17-34	1505.75	1428.39	55.75%	36.12%	-35.14	4-3
1964-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-30	1470.61	1430.18	52.57%	39.14%	+12.28	5-3
1964-11-15	New York Giants	T 10-10	1482.89	1442.03	52.64%	39.08%	-0.49	5-3
1964-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-13	1482.40	1470.68	46.45%	45.12%	+35.05	6-3
1964-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-20	1517.45	1424.86	57.83%	34.17%	+5.39	7-3
1964-12-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-19	1522.84	1622.96	33.24%	58.85%	+26.89	8-3
1964-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-34	1549.73	1445.30	61.30%	31.00%	+6.93	9-3
1964-09-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-27	1440.22	1519.80	35.83%	56.06%	-21.12	0-1
1964-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 18-24	1419.10	1446.77	40.88%	50.77%	-15.67	0-2
1964-09-25	@ New York Giants	L 10-13	1403.43	1492.51	32.85%	59.27%	-8.98	0-3
1964-10-04	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-23	1394.45	1549.23	26.91%	65.87%	-10.42	0-4
1964-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-20	1384.03	1486.93	32.89%	59.22%	+34.92	1-4
1964-10-18	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-38	1418.95	1529.40	30.29%	62.08%	-17.92	1-5
1964-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 27-20	1401.03	1494.58	34.05%	57.96%	+23.38	2-5
1964-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-10	1424.41	1507.54	33.58%	58.47%	+29.55	3-5
1964-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-34	1453.96	1592.98	27.08%	65.68%	-13.54	3-6
1964-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-0	1440.42	1417.90	48.00%	43.58%	+37.19	4-6
1964-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-16	1477.61	1492.75	44.63%	46.94%	+25.18	5-6
1964-11-29	New York Giants	W 36-21	1502.79	1398.37	61.29%	31.00%	+18.98	6-6
1964-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1521.77	1419.47	61.02%	31.25%	-24.53	6-7
1964-12-13	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-45	1497.24	1669.08	23.70%	69.57%	-19.78	6-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1964-12-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-27	1688.87	1613.49	59.70%	40.30%	-44.09	0-1
1964-12-27	Baltimore Colts	W 27-0	1613.49	1688.87	40.30%	59.70%	+44.08	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-11-15	16.31%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1355.91	24	Green Bay Packers	1628.21	14
2	1964-12-06	20.57%	Detroit Lions	1508.92	31	@ Baltimore Colts	1714.35	14
3	1964-10-04	25.97%	Minnesota Vikings	1453.26	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1602.74	23
4	1964-10-25	27.91%	Dallas Cowboys	1415.84	31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1547.32	13
5	1964-10-25	29.98%	Los Angeles Rams	1481.16	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1594.28	17
6	1964-09-20	30.59%	Baltimore Colts	1491.72	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1599.63	20
7	1964-09-13	30.99%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1438.33	38	New York Giants	1557.04	7
8	1964-12-06	31.25%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1419.47	14	@ Washington Redskins	1521.77	7
9	1964-10-10	32.19%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1484.88	23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1579.36	7
10	1964-10-11	32.89%	@ Washington Redskins	1384.03	35	Philadelphia Eagles	1486.93	20
11	1964-12-06	33.24%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1522.84	28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1622.96	19
12	1964-11-01	33.58%	Washington Redskins	1424.41	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1507.54	10
13	1964-10-25	34.05%	@ Washington Redskins	1401.03	27	Chicago Bears	1494.58	20
14	1964-11-15	34.68%	Chicago Bears	1430.87	34	@ Los Angeles Rams	1505.26	24
15	1964-10-04	35.02%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1424.20	31	Chicago Bears	1510.09	21
16	1964-09-13	35.19%	Los Angeles Rams	1447.20	26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1517.57	14
17	1964-09-20	35.76%	San Francisco 49ers	1424.21	28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1490.18	24
18	1964-11-01	36.12%	@ New York Giants	1428.39	34	St. Louis Cardinals	1505.75	17
19	1964-11-22	36.30%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1380.72	44	@ New York Giants	1442.52	17
20	1964-11-26	36.93%	Chicago Bears	1466.48	27	@ Detroit Lions	1523.47	24
21	1964-09-27	37.17%	@ Baltimore Colts	1501.09	52	Chicago Bears	1570.40	0
22	1964-10-18	37.26%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1452.70	30	Pittsburgh Steelers	1521.38	10
23	1964-11-15	37.75%	Philadelphia Eagles	1456.34	17	@ Dallas Cowboys	1507.09	14
24	1964-10-04	38.54%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1456.40	21	Pittsburgh Steelers	1515.40	7
25	1964-12-06	38.95%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1378.27	28	Los Angeles Rams	1434.25	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1964-09-27	60.32	@ Baltimore Colts	52	1501.09	37.17%	Chicago Bears	0	1570.40	54.63%
2	1964-09-13	51.85	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1438.33	30.99%	New York Giants	7	1557.04	61.31%
3	1964-12-06	45.27	Detroit Lions	31	1508.92	20.57%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1714.35	73.27%
4	1964-11-22	44.15	Pittsburgh Steelers	44	1380.72	36.30%	@ New York Giants	17	1442.52	55.56%
5	1964-12-27 *	44.09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1613.49	40.30%	Baltimore Colts	0	1688.87	59.70%
6	1964-10-25	41.57	Dallas Cowboys	31	1415.84	27.91%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	13	1547.32	64.75%
7	1964-10-25	37.94	Baltimore Colts	34	1625.48	50.00%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1589.02	41.63%
8	1964-10-18	37.35	@ Minnesota Vikings	30	1452.70	37.26%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1521.38	54.55%
9	1964-11-15	37.19	Washington Redskins	30	1440.42	48.00%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1417.90	43.58%
10	1964-12-06	37.11	@ San Francisco 49ers	28	1378.27	38.95%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1434.25	52.77%
11	1964-11-15	36.92	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1355.91	16.31%	Green Bay Packers	14	1628.21	78.45%
12	1964-10-25	36.85	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1470.69	42.88%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1484.03	48.72%
13	1964-10-10	36.50	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1484.88	32.19%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1579.36	59.99%
14	1964-10-18	36.09	@ Los Angeles Rams	42	1445.07	47.79%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1438.24	43.80%
15	1964-11-01	35.14	@ New York Giants	34	1428.39	36.12%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1505.75	55.75%
16	1964-11-22	35.05	St. Louis Cardinals	38	1482.40	46.45%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1470.68	45.12%
17	1964-10-11	34.92	@ Washington Redskins	35	1384.03	32.89%	Philadelphia Eagles	20	1486.93	59.22%
18	1964-11-01	32.27	Green Bay Packers	42	1564.33	53.62%	@ Minnesota Vikings	13	1502.30	38.14%
19	1964-11-08	31.61	@ Green Bay Packers	30	1596.60	49.39%	Detroit Lions	7	1578.58	42.22%
20	1964-10-11	31.32	@ Chicago Bears	38	1482.61	47.70%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1476.39	43.88%
21	1964-12-13	30.88	Minnesota Vikings	41	1529.39	53.95%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1464.97	37.82%
22	1964-10-04	30.77	@ Detroit Lions	26	1528.25	50.64%	New York Giants	3	1501.50	41.01%
23	1964-10-04	30.53	@ Philadelphia Eagles	21	1456.40	38.54%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1515.40	53.19%
24	1964-10-12	30.25	Baltimore Colts	47	1583.45	48.19%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	27	1559.65	43.40%
25	1964-09-13	30.01	Los Angeles Rams	26	1447.20	35.19%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1517.57	56.74%