1963 NFL Season
98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Chicago Bears
8th Title
Last Title: 1946
Runner-Up
New York Giants
14th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1962
Biggest Overachiever
Chicago Bears
2.41 wins above expected
11 wins · 9.59 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Detroit Lions
2.87 wins below expected
5 wins · 8.37 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | — | 448 | 280 | +168 | 9.53 | +1.47 |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 10 | 4 | 0 | .714 | 1 | 343 | 262 | +81 | 8.96 | +1.04 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 5 | 0 | .643 | 2 | 341 | 283 | +58 | 7.26 | +1.74 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 4 | 3 | .607 | 2.5 | 321 | 295 | +26 | 7.55 | +0.95 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 7 | 305 | 378 | -73 | 4.96 | -0.96 |
| 6 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 11 | 0 | .214 | 8 | 279 | 398 | -119 | 4.79 | -1.79 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 10 | 2 | .214 | 8 | 242 | 381 | -139 | 5.53 | -2.53 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears Division | 11 | 1 | 2 | .857 | — | 301 | 144 | +157 | 9.59 | +2.41 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 2 | 1 | .821 | 0.5 | 369 | 206 | +163 | 10.66 | +0.84 |
| 3 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 4 | 316 | 285 | +31 | 7.01 | +0.99 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 5 | 8 | 1 | .393 | 6.5 | 326 | 265 | +61 | 8.37 | -2.87 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 8 | 1 | .393 | 6.5 | 309 | 390 | -81 | 4.78 | +0.72 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 9 | 0 | .357 | 7 | 210 | 350 | -140 | 4.23 | +0.77 |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 12 | 0 | .143 | 10 | 198 | 391 | -193 | 4.77 | -2.77 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Chicago Bears
14
New York Giants
10
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1736 | 11.5 | 10.66 | +0.84 | 78.72% | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1714 | 12 | 9.59 | +2.41 | 98.45% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1691 | 11 | 9.53 | +1.47 | 92.68% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | 1574 | 10 | 8.96 | +1.04 | 87.32% | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 14 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1556 | 5.5 | 8.37 | -2.87 | 8.33% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1554 | 8.5 | 7.55 | +0.95 | 78.64% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 | |
| Baltimore Colts | West | 1551 | 8 | 7.01 | +0.99 | 86.85% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | 1537 | 9 | 7.26 | +1.74 | 93.83% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | West | 1394 | 5.5 | 4.78 | +0.72 | 76.54% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | 1386 | 4 | 4.96 | -0.96 | 51.41% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 12 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | 1369 | 5 | 4.23 | +0.77 | 85.68% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1324 | 2 | 4.77 | -2.77 | 12.54% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1316 | 3 | 5.53 | -2.53 | 17.93% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1299 | 3 | 4.79 | -1.79 | 32.39% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within East
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
0-0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
0-0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | — |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 12 | 9.59 | +2.41 |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 7.26 | +1.74 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 11 | 9.53 | +1.47 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 10 | 8.96 | +1.04 |
| 5 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | 7.01 | +0.99 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 5.5 | 8.37 | -2.87 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 4.77 | -2.77 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 5.53 | -2.53 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 4.79 | -1.79 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 4.96 | -0.96 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 3 | Nov 17 – Dec 1 | 1 in 47 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 5 | Sep 15 – Oct 13 | 1 in 23 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 6 | Sep 15 – Oct 20 | 1 in 22 |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | Nov 10 – Nov 24 | 1 in 17 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | Sep 22 – Nov 10 | 1 in 15 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 3 | Nov 10 – Nov 24 | 1 in 66 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | Sep 15 – Oct 13 | 1 in 34 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 7 | Oct 6 – Nov 17 | 1 in 30 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | Oct 20 – Nov 24 | 1 in 24 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | Sep 14 – Oct 6 | 1 in 12 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 47.80% | 27.97% | 14.37% | 6.22% | 2.62% | 0.83% | 0.19% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 32.92% | 31.32% | 18.33% | 10.31% | 4.68% | 1.96% | 0.48% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.27% | 18.01% | 24.39% | 22.52% | 14.81% | 7.72% | 3.28% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 7.79% | 15.46% | 23.25% | 23.53% | 15.25% | 9.88% | 4.84% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.33% | 3.48% | 8.96% | 15.88% | 24.10% | 25.10% | 21.15% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.49% | 1.91% | 5.94% | 11.63% | 19.66% | 27.23% | 33.14% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.40% | 1.85% | 4.76% | 9.91% | 18.88% | 27.28% | 36.92% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 59.17% | 26.94% | 10.46% | 2.87% | 0.51% | 0.05% | — |
| Chicago Bears | 27.61% | 39.34% | 22.31% | 8.32% | 1.80% | 0.54% | 0.08% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.29% | 22.72% | 35.95% | 20.24% | 7.63% | 2.43% | 0.74% |
| Baltimore Colts | 2.81% | 8.85% | 21.67% | 36.13% | 18.11% | 8.64% | 3.79% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.06% | 1.02% | 3.88% | 12.83% | 26.22% | 29.12% | 26.87% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.04% | 0.85% | 3.35% | 11.85% | 26.37% | 29.24% | 28.30% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.02% | 0.28% | 2.38% | 7.76% | 19.36% | 29.98% | 40.22% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 43.91% | 21.38% | 15.02% | 8.76% | 5.37% | 2.69% | 1.60% | 0.78% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | — |
| Chicago Bears | 18.12% | 17.69% | 20.15% | 15.23% | 11.25% | 7.71% | 4.75% | 2.62% | 1.13% | 0.80% | 0.33% | 0.13% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| New York Giants | 16.19% | 23.30% | 16.97% | 15.57% | 9.42% | 7.95% | 4.52% | 2.77% | 1.61% | 0.88% | 0.50% | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 9.45% | 17.26% | 15.14% | 17.12% | 12.30% | 9.68% | 7.61% | 4.68% | 3.06% | 1.91% | 1.01% | 0.43% | 0.27% | 0.08% |
| Detroit Lions | 6.23% | 8.07% | 12.48% | 13.08% | 16.58% | 14.05% | 10.33% | 7.64% | 4.89% | 3.35% | 1.69% | 0.95% | 0.45% | 0.21% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.37% | 4.90% | 7.08% | 10.25% | 12.38% | 13.63% | 12.72% | 11.95% | 9.07% | 6.58% | 4.23% | 2.57% | 1.61% | 0.66% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.94% | 3.85% | 5.68% | 8.85% | 10.92% | 13.54% | 13.55% | 12.00% | 9.77% | 6.94% | 5.40% | 4.19% | 2.28% | 1.09% |
| Baltimore Colts | 1.50% | 2.26% | 4.86% | 5.76% | 10.49% | 12.16% | 15.04% | 14.98% | 9.79% | 8.80% | 5.74% | 4.22% | 2.74% | 1.66% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.14% | 0.64% | 0.97% | 1.95% | 3.49% | 5.68% | 8.14% | 9.81% | 12.84% | 12.58% | 13.22% | 12.05% | 10.33% | 8.16% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.44% | 0.97% | 2.01% | 3.79% | 5.37% | 7.56% | 10.54% | 11.41% | 13.96% | 14.02% | 15.65% | 13.96% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.47% | 0.73% | 1.67% | 2.36% | 4.68% | 7.28% | 10.48% | 12.80% | 13.52% | 14.78% | 14.82% | 16.30% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.98% | 1.89% | 2.89% | 4.98% | 6.30% | 9.62% | 10.92% | 13.74% | 15.10% | 16.55% | 16.46% |
| San Francisco 49ers | — | 0.08% | 0.34% | 0.51% | 1.41% | 2.34% | 4.13% | 7.14% | 9.75% | 13.11% | 13.84% | 15.53% | 15.64% | 16.18% |
| Los Angeles Rams | — | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.24% | 0.82% | 1.53% | 2.58% | 4.49% | 7.09% | 9.83% | 12.80% | 15.80% | 19.49% | 25.21% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 47.80% | 52.20% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 32.92% | 67.08% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.27% | 90.73% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 7.79% | 92.21% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.33% | 98.67% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.49% | 99.51% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.40% | 99.60% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 59.17% | 40.83% |
| Chicago Bears | 27.61% | 72.39% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.29% | 89.71% |
| Baltimore Colts | 2.81% | 97.19% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.06% | 99.94% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.02% | 99.98% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 59.17% | 39.65% |
| New York Giants | 47.80% | 22.06% |
| Chicago Bears | 27.61% | 17.47% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 32.92% | 10.41% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.29% | 3.93% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.27% | 3.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 7.79% | 1.96% |
| Baltimore Colts | 2.81% | 1.27% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.33% | 0.09% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.49% | 0.08% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.40% | 0.07% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.02% | — |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.04% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 0.60% | 0.02% | 0.29% | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.20% | ||||||||
| Chicago Bears | 6.16% | 0.11% | 7.32% | 0.29% | 1.61% | 1.84% | 0.14% | |||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.53% | 2.65% | 1.67% | 5.53% | 0.02% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.05% | ||||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 1.17% | 0.02% | 1.66% | 0.14% | 0.56% | 0.35% | 0.03% | |||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 14.57% | 0.26% | 16.47% | 0.80% | 3.95% | 3.44% | 0.16% | |||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.01% | |||||||||||||
| New York Giants | 0.79% | 6.03% | 3.49% | 11.70% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | |||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.03% | ||||||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.13% | 0.76% | 0.64% | 1.45% | 0.02% | |||||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.07% | 0.67% | 0.49% | 0.72% | 0.01% | |||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.04% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 56.81% |
| New York Giants | 43.19% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 56.81% | |
| New York Giants | 43.19% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Chicago Bears
56.81% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. New York Giants
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
56.81%
New York Giants
43.19% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Chicago Bears
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
43.19%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1963-09-15 | New York Giants | L 28-37 | 1506.06 | 1594.54 | 37.77% | 55.66% | -18.01 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 20-14 | 1488.05 | 1460.02 | 47.17% | 46.26% | +17.79 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 20-31 | 1505.84 | 1672.74 | 22.48% | 71.04% | -12.11 | 1-2 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Chicago Bears | L 3-10 | 1493.73 | 1633.85 | 25.28% | 68.21% | -10.81 | 1-3 |
| 1963-10-13 | San Francisco 49ers | W 20-3 | 1482.92 | 1381.14 | 63.79% | 29.67% | +19.67 | 2-3 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ Detroit Lions | W 25-21 | 1502.59 | 1565.49 | 34.55% | 58.89% | +18.28 | 3-3 |
| 1963-10-27 | Green Bay Packers | L 20-34 | 1520.87 | 1723.07 | 23.96% | 69.55% | -14.53 | 3-4 |
| 1963-11-03 | Chicago Bears | L 7-17 | 1506.34 | 1638.98 | 31.99% | 61.46% | -16.21 | 3-5 |
| 1963-11-10 | Detroit Lions | W 24-21 | 1490.13 | 1587.02 | 36.64% | 56.80% | +15.29 | 4-5 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 37-34 | 1505.42 | 1368.89 | 61.95% | 31.51% | +8.75 | 5-5 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 16-17 | 1514.17 | 1359.25 | 64.20% | 29.26% | -9.95 | 5-6 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ Washington Redskins | W 36-20 | 1504.22 | 1332.99 | 66.12% | 27.35% | +17.65 | 6-6 |
| 1963-12-08 | Minnesota Vikings | W 41-10 | 1521.87 | 1380.92 | 68.31% | 25.19% | +22.69 | 7-6 |
| 1963-12-15 | Los Angeles Rams | W 19-16 | 1544.56 | 1375.58 | 71.25% | 22.27% | +6.27 | 8-6 |
| 1963-09-15 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 10-3 | 1555.70 | 1669.75 | 28.22% | 65.25% | +26.76 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 28-7 | 1582.46 | 1412.99 | 65.92% | 27.56% | +20.36 | 2-0 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Detroit Lions | W 37-21 | 1602.82 | 1598.24 | 43.81% | 49.62% | +31.03 | 3-0 |
| 1963-10-06 | Baltimore Colts | W 10-3 | 1633.85 | 1493.73 | 68.21% | 25.28% | +10.82 | 4-0 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 52-14 | 1644.67 | 1328.86 | 79.54% | 14.08% | +14.26 | 5-0 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-20 | 1658.93 | 1361.47 | 78.20% | 15.41% | -29.72 | 5-1 |
| 1963-10-27 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 16-7 | 1629.21 | 1436.36 | 73.56% | 19.98% | +9.77 | 6-1 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 17-7 | 1638.98 | 1506.34 | 61.46% | 31.99% | +16.21 | 7-1 |
| 1963-11-10 | Los Angeles Rams | W 6-0 | 1655.19 | 1331.51 | 83.17% | 10.54% | +4.26 | 8-1 |
| 1963-11-17 | Green Bay Packers | W 26-7 | 1659.45 | 1758.86 | 36.30% | 57.14% | +38.70 | 9-1 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | T 17-17 | 1698.15 | 1565.42 | 61.47% | 31.98% | -1.10 | 9-1 |
| 1963-12-01 | Minnesota Vikings | T 17-17 | 1697.05 | 1378.15 | 82.91% | 10.80% | -2.78 | 9-1 |
| 1963-12-08 | San Francisco 49ers | W 27-7 | 1694.27 | 1333.58 | 85.08% | 8.70% | +6.43 | 10-1 |
| 1963-12-15 | Detroit Lions | W 24-14 | 1700.70 | 1569.27 | 67.25% | 26.23% | +13.40 | 11-1 |
| 1963-09-15 | Washington Redskins | W 37-14 | 1519.05 | 1403.11 | 65.48% | 28.00% | +21.64 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 41-24 | 1540.69 | 1411.40 | 61.04% | 32.41% | +21.40 | 2-0 |
| 1963-09-29 | Los Angeles Rams | W 20-6 | 1562.09 | 1348.67 | 75.41% | 18.16% | +11.10 | 3-0 |
| 1963-10-05 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 35-23 | 1573.19 | 1569.73 | 50.76% | 42.67% | +23.33 | 4-0 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ New York Giants | W 35-24 | 1596.52 | 1602.23 | 42.35% | 51.08% | +26.44 | 5-0 |
| 1963-10-20 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 37-7 | 1622.96 | 1456.39 | 71.01% | 22.51% | +20.03 | 6-0 |
| 1963-10-27 | New York Giants | L 6-33 | 1642.99 | 1589.02 | 57.71% | 35.73% | -46.59 | 6-1 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 23-17 | 1596.40 | 1426.59 | 65.96% | 27.52% | +10.87 | 7-1 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-9 | 1607.27 | 1545.58 | 51.96% | 41.47% | -11.46 | 7-2 |
| 1963-11-17 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 14-20 | 1595.81 | 1519.60 | 60.61% | 32.84% | -23.03 | 7-3 |
| 1963-11-24 | Dallas Cowboys | W 27-17 | 1572.78 | 1389.76 | 72.63% | 20.90% | +10.76 | 8-3 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-10 | 1583.54 | 1570.67 | 44.99% | 48.43% | +28.37 | 9-3 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-38 | 1611.91 | 1523.47 | 55.66% | 37.78% | -45.81 | 9-4 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-20 | 1566.10 | 1306.94 | 75.06% | 18.50% | +7.99 | 10-4 |
| 1963-09-14 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 7-34 | 1451.65 | 1456.75 | 49.54% | 43.88% | -40.25 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-41 | 1411.40 | 1540.69 | 32.41% | 61.04% | -21.41 | 0-2 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Washington Redskins | L 17-21 | 1389.99 | 1419.68 | 39.01% | 54.42% | -12.37 | 0-3 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 21-24 | 1377.62 | 1418.65 | 37.46% | 55.97% | -10.32 | 0-4 |
| 1963-10-13 | Detroit Lions | W 17-14 | 1367.30 | 1584.58 | 22.41% | 71.11% | +19.09 | 1-4 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ New York Giants | L 21-37 | 1386.39 | 1575.79 | 20.30% | 73.24% | -13.23 | 1-5 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 21-27 | 1373.16 | 1552.35 | 21.27% | 72.26% | -8.48 | 1-6 |
| 1963-11-03 | Washington Redskins | W 35-20 | 1364.68 | 1358.17 | 51.19% | 42.24% | +25.84 | 2-6 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 24-31 | 1390.52 | 1344.77 | 49.70% | 43.72% | -20.56 | 2-7 |
| 1963-11-17 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 27-20 | 1369.96 | 1402.10 | 45.67% | 47.76% | +19.80 | 3-7 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-27 | 1389.76 | 1572.78 | 20.90% | 72.63% | -10.76 | 3-8 |
| 1963-12-01 | New York Giants | L 27-34 | 1379.00 | 1656.05 | 17.00% | 76.58% | -7.36 | 3-9 |
| 1963-12-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 19-24 | 1371.64 | 1564.43 | 24.96% | 68.54% | -9.03 | 3-10 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 28-24 | 1362.61 | 1559.65 | 19.60% | 73.95% | +22.93 | 4-10 |
| 1963-09-14 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 23-2 | 1610.49 | 1404.38 | 69.96% | 23.55% | +17.50 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-31 | 1627.99 | 1642.99 | 41.05% | 52.38% | -29.75 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | Chicago Bears | L 21-37 | 1598.24 | 1602.82 | 49.62% | 43.81% | -31.03 | 1-2 |
| 1963-10-06 | San Francisco 49ers | W 26-3 | 1567.21 | 1398.51 | 71.22% | 22.30% | +17.37 | 2-2 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-17 | 1584.58 | 1367.30 | 71.11% | 22.41% | -19.09 | 2-3 |
| 1963-10-20 | Baltimore Colts | L 21-25 | 1565.49 | 1502.59 | 58.89% | 34.55% | -18.28 | 2-4 |
| 1963-10-27 | Minnesota Vikings | W 28-10 | 1547.21 | 1370.86 | 71.98% | 21.54% | +14.86 | 3-4 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 45-7 | 1562.07 | 1369.72 | 68.49% | 25.00% | +24.95 | 4-4 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 21-24 | 1587.02 | 1490.13 | 56.80% | 36.64% | -15.29 | 4-5 |
| 1963-11-17 | Los Angeles Rams | L 21-28 | 1571.73 | 1327.25 | 77.95% | 15.65% | -32.00 | 4-6 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 31-34 | 1539.73 | 1360.14 | 67.08% | 26.41% | -18.00 | 4-7 |
| 1963-11-28 | Green Bay Packers | T 13-13 | 1521.73 | 1726.09 | 23.73% | 69.77% | +1.74 | 4-7 |
| 1963-12-08 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 38-10 | 1523.47 | 1611.91 | 37.78% | 55.66% | +45.80 | 5-7 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-24 | 1569.27 | 1700.70 | 26.23% | 67.25% | -13.40 | 5-8 |
| 1963-09-15 | Chicago Bears | L 3-10 | 1669.75 | 1555.70 | 65.25% | 28.22% | -26.76 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-22 | Detroit Lions | W 31-10 | 1642.99 | 1627.99 | 52.38% | 41.05% | +29.75 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | Baltimore Colts | W 31-20 | 1672.74 | 1505.84 | 71.04% | 22.48% | +12.11 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-06 | Los Angeles Rams | W 42-10 | 1684.85 | 1337.57 | 84.42% | 9.33% | +8.71 | 3-1 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 37-28 | 1693.56 | 1392.67 | 78.46% | 15.15% | +7.46 | 4-1 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 30-7 | 1701.02 | 1540.07 | 64.92% | 28.55% | +22.05 | 5-1 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 34-20 | 1723.07 | 1520.87 | 69.55% | 23.96% | +14.53 | 6-1 |
| 1963-11-03 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 33-14 | 1737.60 | 1560.83 | 72.02% | 21.50% | +15.24 | 7-1 |
| 1963-11-10 | Minnesota Vikings | W 28-7 | 1752.84 | 1374.91 | 85.86% | 7.95% | +6.02 | 8-1 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-26 | 1758.86 | 1659.45 | 57.14% | 36.30% | -38.71 | 8-2 |
| 1963-11-24 | San Francisco 49ers | W 28-10 | 1720.15 | 1354.35 | 85.31% | 8.47% | +5.94 | 9-2 |
| 1963-11-28 | @ Detroit Lions | T 13-13 | 1726.09 | 1521.73 | 69.77% | 23.73% | -1.74 | 9-2 |
| 1963-12-07 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 31-14 | 1724.35 | 1384.04 | 81.20% | 12.47% | +8.46 | 10-2 |
| 1963-12-14 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 21-17 | 1732.81 | 1327.16 | 84.85% | 8.92% | +2.94 | 11-2 |
| 1963-09-14 | Detroit Lions | L 2-23 | 1404.38 | 1610.49 | 23.55% | 69.96% | -17.50 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-21 | Washington Redskins | L 14-37 | 1386.88 | 1381.47 | 51.03% | 42.39% | -38.21 | 0-2 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 6-20 | 1348.67 | 1562.09 | 18.16% | 75.41% | -11.10 | 0-3 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-42 | 1337.57 | 1684.85 | 9.33% | 84.42% | -8.71 | 0-4 |
| 1963-10-13 | Chicago Bears | L 14-52 | 1328.86 | 1644.67 | 14.08% | 79.54% | -14.26 | 0-5 |
| 1963-10-20 | Minnesota Vikings | W 27-24 | 1314.60 | 1385.21 | 40.23% | 53.21% | +14.36 | 1-5 |
| 1963-10-27 | San Francisco 49ers | W 28-21 | 1328.96 | 1391.19 | 41.39% | 52.03% | +21.47 | 2-5 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 13-21 | 1350.43 | 1355.99 | 42.37% | 51.06% | -18.92 | 2-6 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-6 | 1331.51 | 1655.19 | 10.54% | 83.17% | -4.26 | 2-7 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-21 | 1327.25 | 1571.73 | 15.65% | 77.95% | +32.00 | 3-7 |
| 1963-11-24 | Baltimore Colts | W 17-16 | 1359.25 | 1514.17 | 29.26% | 64.20% | +9.95 | 4-7 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 21-17 | 1369.20 | 1348.41 | 46.13% | 47.30% | +14.84 | 5-7 |
| 1963-12-07 | Green Bay Packers | L 14-31 | 1384.04 | 1724.35 | 12.47% | 81.20% | -8.46 | 5-8 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 16-19 | 1375.58 | 1544.56 | 22.27% | 71.25% | -6.27 | 5-9 |
| 1963-09-15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 24-20 | 1393.83 | 1479.18 | 31.69% | 61.77% | +19.16 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | Chicago Bears | L 7-28 | 1412.99 | 1582.46 | 27.56% | 65.92% | -20.37 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | San Francisco 49ers | W 45-14 | 1392.62 | 1442.22 | 43.18% | 50.25% | +43.72 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-06 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 14-56 | 1436.34 | 1489.31 | 42.70% | 50.73% | -43.67 | 2-2 |
| 1963-10-13 | Green Bay Packers | L 28-37 | 1392.67 | 1693.56 | 15.15% | 78.46% | -7.46 | 2-3 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 24-27 | 1385.21 | 1314.60 | 53.21% | 40.23% | -14.35 | 2-4 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-28 | 1370.86 | 1547.21 | 21.54% | 71.98% | -14.87 | 2-5 |
| 1963-11-03 | Los Angeles Rams | W 21-13 | 1355.99 | 1350.43 | 51.06% | 42.37% | +18.92 | 3-5 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1374.91 | 1752.84 | 7.95% | 85.86% | -6.02 | 3-6 |
| 1963-11-17 | Baltimore Colts | L 34-37 | 1368.89 | 1505.42 | 31.51% | 61.95% | -8.75 | 3-7 |
| 1963-11-24 | Detroit Lions | W 34-31 | 1360.14 | 1539.73 | 26.41% | 67.08% | +18.01 | 4-7 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ Chicago Bears | T 17-17 | 1378.15 | 1697.05 | 10.80% | 82.91% | +2.77 | 4-7 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 10-41 | 1380.92 | 1521.87 | 25.19% | 68.31% | -22.69 | 4-8 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-13 | 1358.23 | 1351.12 | 44.17% | 49.26% | +35.31 | 5-8 |
| 1963-09-15 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 37-28 | 1594.54 | 1506.06 | 55.66% | 37.77% | +18.01 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-31 | 1612.55 | 1496.68 | 59.31% | 34.13% | -51.27 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 37-14 | 1561.28 | 1444.73 | 59.40% | 34.04% | +26.09 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Washington Redskins | W 24-14 | 1587.37 | 1432.06 | 64.25% | 29.22% | +14.86 | 3-1 |
| 1963-10-13 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-35 | 1602.23 | 1596.52 | 51.08% | 42.35% | -26.44 | 3-2 |
| 1963-10-20 | Dallas Cowboys | W 37-21 | 1575.79 | 1386.39 | 73.24% | 20.30% | +13.23 | 4-2 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 33-6 | 1589.02 | 1642.99 | 35.73% | 57.71% | +46.58 | 5-2 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 38-21 | 1635.60 | 1536.59 | 57.09% | 36.35% | +23.87 | 6-2 |
| 1963-11-10 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 42-14 | 1659.47 | 1415.72 | 77.89% | 15.71% | +13.62 | 7-2 |
| 1963-11-17 | San Francisco 49ers | W 48-14 | 1673.09 | 1365.33 | 82.26% | 11.43% | +10.98 | 8-2 |
| 1963-11-24 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-24 | 1684.07 | 1542.64 | 68.36% | 25.13% | -28.02 | 8-3 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 34-27 | 1656.05 | 1379.00 | 76.58% | 17.00% | +7.36 | 9-3 |
| 1963-12-08 | Washington Redskins | W 44-14 | 1663.41 | 1315.34 | 84.46% | 9.29% | +8.40 | 10-3 |
| 1963-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 33-17 | 1671.81 | 1573.47 | 63.38% | 30.09% | +19.34 | 11-3 |
| 1963-09-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | T 21-21 | 1458.69 | 1496.82 | 44.81% | 48.62% | +0.14 | 0-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 24-28 | 1458.83 | 1497.00 | 44.80% | 48.62% | -14.10 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | New York Giants | L 14-37 | 1444.73 | 1561.28 | 34.04% | 59.40% | -26.08 | 0-2 |
| 1963-10-06 | Dallas Cowboys | W 24-21 | 1418.65 | 1377.62 | 55.97% | 37.46% | +10.31 | 1-2 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ Washington Redskins | W 37-24 | 1428.96 | 1417.20 | 44.83% | 48.59% | +27.43 | 2-2 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-37 | 1456.39 | 1622.96 | 22.51% | 71.01% | -20.03 | 2-3 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-16 | 1436.36 | 1629.21 | 19.98% | 73.56% | -9.77 | 2-4 |
| 1963-11-03 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-23 | 1426.59 | 1596.40 | 27.52% | 65.96% | -10.87 | 2-5 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ New York Giants | L 14-42 | 1415.72 | 1659.47 | 15.71% | 77.89% | -13.62 | 2-6 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 20-27 | 1402.10 | 1369.96 | 47.76% | 45.67% | -19.80 | 2-7 |
| 1963-11-24 | Washington Redskins | L 10-13 | 1382.30 | 1317.08 | 59.19% | 34.25% | -15.92 | 2-8 |
| 1963-12-01 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | T 20-20 | 1366.38 | 1566.52 | 19.32% | 74.23% | +2.09 | 2-8 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 14-38 | 1368.47 | 1542.29 | 21.79% | 71.73% | -17.35 | 2-9 |
| 1963-12-15 | Minnesota Vikings | L 13-34 | 1351.12 | 1358.23 | 49.26% | 44.17% | -35.31 | 2-10 |
| 1963-09-15 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 21-21 | 1496.82 | 1458.69 | 48.62% | 44.81% | -0.14 | 0-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | New York Giants | W 31-0 | 1496.68 | 1612.55 | 34.13% | 59.31% | +51.26 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-29 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 23-10 | 1547.94 | 1511.10 | 55.40% | 38.03% | +21.79 | 2-0 |
| 1963-10-05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 23-35 | 1569.73 | 1573.19 | 42.67% | 50.76% | -23.33 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 23-24 | 1546.40 | 1532.98 | 45.07% | 48.36% | -7.09 | 2-2 |
| 1963-10-20 | Washington Redskins | W 38-27 | 1539.31 | 1389.77 | 69.23% | 24.27% | +13.04 | 3-2 |
| 1963-10-27 | Dallas Cowboys | W 27-21 | 1552.35 | 1373.16 | 72.26% | 21.27% | +8.48 | 4-2 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-33 | 1560.83 | 1737.60 | 21.50% | 72.02% | -15.25 | 4-3 |
| 1963-11-10 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 9-7 | 1545.58 | 1607.27 | 41.47% | 51.96% | +11.46 | 5-3 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Washington Redskins | W 34-28 | 1557.04 | 1325.45 | 72.52% | 21.01% | +8.38 | 6-3 |
| 1963-11-24 | Chicago Bears | T 17-17 | 1565.42 | 1698.15 | 31.98% | 61.47% | +1.10 | 6-3 |
| 1963-12-01 | Philadelphia Eagles | T 20-20 | 1566.52 | 1366.38 | 74.23% | 19.32% | -2.09 | 6-3 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 24-19 | 1564.43 | 1371.64 | 68.54% | 24.96% | +9.04 | 7-3 |
| 1963-12-15 | @ New York Giants | L 17-33 | 1573.47 | 1671.81 | 30.09% | 63.38% | -19.34 | 7-4 |
| 1963-09-15 | Minnesota Vikings | L 20-24 | 1479.18 | 1393.83 | 61.77% | 31.69% | -19.16 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-22 | Baltimore Colts | L 14-20 | 1460.02 | 1488.05 | 46.26% | 47.17% | -17.80 | 0-2 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-45 | 1442.22 | 1392.62 | 50.25% | 43.18% | -43.71 | 0-3 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Detroit Lions | L 3-26 | 1398.51 | 1567.21 | 22.30% | 71.22% | -17.37 | 0-4 |
| 1963-10-13 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 3-20 | 1381.14 | 1482.92 | 29.67% | 63.79% | -19.67 | 0-5 |
| 1963-10-20 | Chicago Bears | W 20-14 | 1361.47 | 1658.93 | 15.41% | 78.20% | +29.72 | 1-5 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 21-28 | 1391.19 | 1328.96 | 52.03% | 41.39% | -21.47 | 1-6 |
| 1963-11-03 | Detroit Lions | L 7-45 | 1369.72 | 1562.07 | 25.00% | 68.49% | -24.95 | 1-7 |
| 1963-11-10 | Dallas Cowboys | W 31-24 | 1344.77 | 1390.52 | 43.72% | 49.70% | +20.56 | 2-7 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ New York Giants | L 14-48 | 1365.33 | 1673.09 | 11.43% | 82.26% | -10.98 | 2-8 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-28 | 1354.35 | 1720.15 | 8.47% | 85.31% | -5.94 | 2-9 |
| 1963-12-01 | Los Angeles Rams | L 17-21 | 1348.41 | 1369.20 | 47.30% | 46.13% | -14.83 | 2-10 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-27 | 1333.58 | 1694.27 | 8.70% | 85.08% | -6.42 | 2-11 |
| 1963-12-14 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-21 | 1327.16 | 1732.81 | 8.92% | 84.85% | -2.95 | 2-12 |
| 1963-09-14 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 34-7 | 1456.75 | 1451.65 | 43.88% | 49.54% | +40.25 | 1-0 |
| 1963-09-22 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-24 | 1497.00 | 1458.83 | 48.62% | 44.80% | +14.10 | 2-0 |
| 1963-09-29 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-23 | 1511.10 | 1547.94 | 38.03% | 55.40% | -21.79 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-06 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 56-14 | 1489.31 | 1436.34 | 50.73% | 42.70% | +43.67 | 3-1 |
| 1963-10-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-23 | 1532.98 | 1546.40 | 48.36% | 45.07% | +7.09 | 4-1 |
| 1963-10-20 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-30 | 1540.07 | 1701.02 | 28.55% | 64.92% | -22.05 | 4-2 |
| 1963-10-27 | @ Washington Redskins | W 21-7 | 1518.02 | 1376.73 | 62.54% | 30.92% | +18.57 | 5-2 |
| 1963-11-03 | New York Giants | L 21-38 | 1536.59 | 1635.60 | 36.35% | 57.09% | -23.87 | 5-3 |
| 1963-11-10 | Washington Redskins | W 24-20 | 1512.72 | 1332.34 | 72.37% | 21.15% | +6.88 | 6-3 |
| 1963-11-17 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 20-14 | 1519.60 | 1595.81 | 32.84% | 60.61% | +23.04 | 7-3 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ New York Giants | W 24-17 | 1542.64 | 1684.07 | 25.13% | 68.36% | +28.03 | 8-3 |
| 1963-12-01 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 10-24 | 1570.67 | 1583.54 | 48.43% | 44.99% | -28.38 | 8-4 |
| 1963-12-08 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-14 | 1542.29 | 1368.47 | 71.73% | 21.79% | +17.36 | 9-4 |
| 1963-12-15 | Dallas Cowboys | L 24-28 | 1559.65 | 1362.61 | 73.95% | 19.60% | -22.93 | 9-5 |
| 1963-09-15 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 14-37 | 1403.11 | 1519.05 | 28.00% | 65.48% | -21.64 | 0-1 |
| 1963-09-21 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 37-14 | 1381.47 | 1386.88 | 42.39% | 51.03% | +38.21 | 1-1 |
| 1963-09-29 | Dallas Cowboys | W 21-17 | 1419.68 | 1389.99 | 54.42% | 39.01% | +12.38 | 2-1 |
| 1963-10-06 | New York Giants | L 14-24 | 1432.06 | 1587.37 | 29.22% | 64.25% | -14.86 | 2-2 |
| 1963-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-37 | 1417.20 | 1428.96 | 48.59% | 44.83% | -27.43 | 2-3 |
| 1963-10-20 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 27-38 | 1389.77 | 1539.31 | 24.27% | 69.23% | -13.04 | 2-4 |
| 1963-10-27 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 7-21 | 1376.73 | 1518.02 | 30.92% | 62.54% | -18.56 | 2-5 |
| 1963-11-03 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 20-35 | 1358.17 | 1364.68 | 42.24% | 51.19% | -25.83 | 2-6 |
| 1963-11-10 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 20-24 | 1332.34 | 1512.72 | 21.15% | 72.37% | -6.89 | 2-7 |
| 1963-11-17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 28-34 | 1325.45 | 1557.04 | 21.01% | 72.52% | -8.37 | 2-8 |
| 1963-11-24 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 13-10 | 1317.08 | 1382.30 | 34.25% | 59.19% | +15.91 | 3-8 |
| 1963-12-01 | Baltimore Colts | L 20-36 | 1332.99 | 1504.22 | 27.35% | 66.12% | -17.65 | 3-9 |
| 1963-12-08 | @ New York Giants | L 14-44 | 1315.34 | 1663.41 | 9.29% | 84.46% | -8.40 | 3-10 |
| 1963-12-15 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-27 | 1306.94 | 1566.10 | 18.50% | 75.06% | -7.99 | 3-11 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1963-12-29 | New York Giants | W 14-10 | 1714.10 | 1691.15 | 56.84% | 43.16% | +12.66 | 1-0 |
| 1963-12-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-14 | 1691.15 | 1714.10 | 43.16% | 56.84% | -12.66 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1963-10-20 | 15.41% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1361.47 | 20 | Chicago Bears | 1658.93 | 14 |
| 2 | 1963-11-17 | 15.65% | Los Angeles Rams | 1327.25 | 28 | @ Detroit Lions | 1571.73 | 21 |
| 3 | 1963-12-15 | 19.60% | Dallas Cowboys | 1362.61 | 28 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1559.65 | 24 |
| 4 | 1963-10-13 | 22.41% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1367.30 | 17 | Detroit Lions | 1584.58 | 14 |
| 5 | 1963-11-24 | 25.13% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1542.64 | 24 | @ New York Giants | 1684.07 | 17 |
| 6 | 1963-11-24 | 26.41% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1360.14 | 34 | Detroit Lions | 1539.73 | 31 |
| 7 | 1963-09-15 | 28.22% | Chicago Bears | 1555.70 | 10 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1669.75 | 3 |
| 8 | 1963-11-24 | 29.26% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1359.25 | 17 | Baltimore Colts | 1514.17 | 16 |
| 9 | 1963-09-15 | 31.69% | Minnesota Vikings | 1393.83 | 24 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1479.18 | 20 |
| 10 | 1963-11-17 | 32.84% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1519.60 | 20 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1595.81 | 14 |
| 11 | 1963-09-22 | 34.13% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1496.68 | 31 | New York Giants | 1612.55 | 0 |
| 12 | 1963-11-24 | 34.25% | Washington Redskins | 1317.08 | 13 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1382.30 | 10 |
| 13 | 1963-10-20 | 34.55% | Baltimore Colts | 1502.59 | 25 | @ Detroit Lions | 1565.49 | 21 |
| 14 | 1963-10-27 | 35.73% | New York Giants | 1589.02 | 33 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1642.99 | 6 |
| 15 | 1963-11-17 | 36.30% | @ Chicago Bears | 1659.45 | 26 | Green Bay Packers | 1758.86 | 7 |
| 16 | 1963-11-10 | 36.64% | @ Baltimore Colts | 1490.13 | 24 | Detroit Lions | 1587.02 | 21 |
| 17 | 1963-12-08 | 37.78% | @ Detroit Lions | 1523.47 | 38 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1611.91 | 10 |
| 18 | 1963-10-20 | 40.23% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1314.60 | 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 1385.21 | 24 |
| 19 | 1963-10-27 | 41.39% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1328.96 | 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 1391.19 | 21 |
| 20 | 1963-11-10 | 41.47% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1545.58 | 9 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1607.27 | 7 |
| 21 | 1963-10-13 | 42.35% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1596.52 | 35 | @ New York Giants | 1602.23 | 24 |
| 22 | 1963-09-21 | 42.39% | Washington Redskins | 1381.47 | 37 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1386.88 | 14 |
| 23 | 1963-09-29 | 43.18% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1392.62 | 45 | San Francisco 49ers | 1442.22 | 14 |
| 24 | 1963-11-10 | 43.72% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1344.77 | 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 1390.52 | 24 |
| 25 | 1963-09-29 | 43.81% | Chicago Bears | 1602.82 | 37 | @ Detroit Lions | 1598.24 | 21 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1963-09-22 | 51.27 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 31 | 1496.68 | 34.13% | New York Giants | 0 | 1612.55 | 59.31% |
| 2 | 1963-10-27 | 46.59 | New York Giants | 33 | 1589.02 | 35.73% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 6 | 1642.99 | 57.71% |
| 3 | 1963-12-08 | 45.81 | @ Detroit Lions | 38 | 1523.47 | 37.78% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 10 | 1611.91 | 55.66% |
| 4 | 1963-09-29 | 43.72 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 45 | 1392.62 | 43.18% | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 1442.22 | 50.25% |
| 5 | 1963-10-06 | 43.67 | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 1489.31 | 50.73% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 1436.34 | 42.70% |
| 6 | 1963-09-14 | 40.25 | St. Louis Cardinals | 34 | 1456.75 | 43.88% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 1451.65 | 49.54% |
| 7 | 1963-11-17 | 38.71 | @ Chicago Bears | 26 | 1659.45 | 36.30% | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1758.86 | 57.14% |
| 8 | 1963-09-21 | 38.21 | Washington Redskins | 37 | 1381.47 | 42.39% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 1386.88 | 51.03% |
| 9 | 1963-12-15 | 35.31 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 | 1358.23 | 44.17% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 13 | 1351.12 | 49.26% |
| 10 | 1963-11-17 | 32.00 | Los Angeles Rams | 28 | 1327.25 | 15.65% | @ Detroit Lions | 21 | 1571.73 | 77.95% |
| 11 | 1963-09-29 | 31.03 | Chicago Bears | 37 | 1602.82 | 43.81% | @ Detroit Lions | 21 | 1598.24 | 49.62% |
| 12 | 1963-09-22 | 29.75 | @ Green Bay Packers | 31 | 1642.99 | 52.38% | Detroit Lions | 10 | 1627.99 | 41.05% |
| 13 | 1963-10-20 | 29.72 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 20 | 1361.47 | 15.41% | Chicago Bears | 14 | 1658.93 | 78.20% |
| 14 | 1963-12-01 | 28.38 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 24 | 1583.54 | 44.99% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 1570.67 | 48.43% |
| 15 | 1963-11-24 | 28.03 | St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 1542.64 | 25.13% | @ New York Giants | 17 | 1684.07 | 68.36% |
| 16 | 1963-10-13 | 27.43 | Philadelphia Eagles | 37 | 1428.96 | 44.83% | @ Washington Redskins | 24 | 1417.20 | 48.59% |
| 17 | 1963-09-15 | 26.76 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 1555.70 | 28.22% | @ Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1669.75 | 65.25% |
| 18 | 1963-10-13 | 26.44 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 35 | 1596.52 | 42.35% | @ New York Giants | 24 | 1602.23 | 51.08% |
| 19 | 1963-09-29 | 26.09 | New York Giants | 37 | 1561.28 | 59.40% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1444.73 | 34.04% |
| 20 | 1963-11-03 | 25.84 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 35 | 1364.68 | 51.19% | Washington Redskins | 20 | 1358.17 | 42.24% |
| 21 | 1963-11-03 | 24.95 | Detroit Lions | 45 | 1562.07 | 68.49% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1369.72 | 25.00% |
| 22 | 1963-11-03 | 23.87 | New York Giants | 38 | 1635.60 | 57.09% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 21 | 1536.59 | 36.35% |
| 23 | 1963-10-05 | 23.33 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 35 | 1573.19 | 50.76% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 1569.73 | 42.67% |
| 24 | 1963-11-17 | 23.04 | St. Louis Cardinals | 20 | 1519.60 | 32.84% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 14 | 1595.81 | 60.61% |
| 25 | 1963-12-15 | 22.93 | Dallas Cowboys | 28 | 1362.61 | 19.60% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 1559.65 | 73.95% |