1962 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

8th Title

Last Title: 1961

Runner-Up

New York Giants

13th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1961

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

2.61 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.39 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Los Angeles Rams

2.96 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.46 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	12	2	0	.857	-	398	283	+115	9.39	+2.61
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	5	0	.643	3	312	363	-51	6.71	+2.29
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	6	1	.536	4.5	291	257	+34	8.41	-0.91
4	Washington Redskins	5	7	2	.429	6	305	376	-71	5.66	+0.34
5	Dallas Cowboys	5	8	1	.393	6.5	398	402	-4	6.38	-0.88
6	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	7.5	287	361	-74	5.47	-0.97
7	Philadelphia Eagles	3	10	1	.250	8.5	282	356	-74	6.36	-2.86

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	13	1	0	.929	-	415	148	+267	10.91	+2.09
2	Detroit Lions	11	3	0	.786	2	315	177	+138	9.22	+1.78
3	Chicago Bears	9	5	0	.643	4	321	287	+34	6.96	+2.04
4	Baltimore Colts	7	7	0	.500	6	293	288	+5	6.94	+0.06
5	San Francisco 49ers	6	8	0	.429	7	282	331	-49	6.47	-0.47
6	Minnesota Vikings	2	11	1	.179	10.5	254	410	-156	4.67	-2.17
7	Los Angeles Rams	1	12	1	.107	11.5	220	334	-114	4.46	-2.96

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 16

New York Giants 7

Dec 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1781	13	10.91	+2.09	98.08%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
New York Giants	East	1726	12	9.39	+2.61	98.39%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Detroit Lions	West	1711	11	9.22	+1.78	94.52%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Chicago Bears	West	1626	9	6.96	+2.04	95.00%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1523	7.5	8.41	-0.91	37.48%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Baltimore Colts	West	1507	7	6.94	+0.06	69.97%	0	4	5	7	8	9	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1504	9	6.71	+2.29	95.96%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
San Francisco 49ers	West	1457	6	6.47	-0.47	59.28%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1426	4.5	5.47	-0.97	37.66%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Dallas Cowboys	East	1406	5.5	6.38	-0.88	39.08%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1406	3.5	6.36	-2.86	7.42%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Washington Redskins	East	1335	6	5.66	+0.34	75.60%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Los Angeles Rams	West	1297	1.5	4.46	-2.96	4.07%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Minnesota Vikings	West	1294	2.5	4.67	-2.17	13.06%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-
New York Giants	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.1 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Chicago Bears	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Detroit Lions	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-
Green Bay Packers	-	-	-	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Rams	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.02%	1.53%	2.04%	0.51%	—	—	1.53%	6.63%
7–13	1.53%	4.08%	3.06%	1.02%	2.55%	3.06%	0.51%	15.82%
14–20	2.04%	3.06%	8.16%	4.08%	3.06%	4.08%	1.02%	25.51%
21–27	0.51%	1.02%	4.08%	7.14%	3.57%	1.02%	2.55%	19.90%
28–34	—	2.55%	3.06%	3.57%	4.08%	1.02%	0.51%	14.80%
35–41	—	3.06%	4.08%	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	0.51%	10.71%
42+	1.53%	0.51%	1.02%	2.55%	0.51%	0.51%	—	6.63%
Total	6.63%	15.82%	25.51%	19.90%	14.80%	10.71%	6.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.31	22.31	+0.00
SD	12.02	12.02	17.83
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	57	57	+57
Min	0	0	-57

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.93	20.57	+0.36
SD	12.45	14.05	22.36
CV	0.59	0.68	—
Max	42	57	+27
Min	0	2	-57

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.93	20.50	+2.43
SD	15.93	15.32	24.42
CV	0.69	0.75	—
Max	57	49	+57
Min	0	0	-49

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	50.00%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.79	18.36	+2.43
SD	11.31	11.69	18.62
CV	0.54	0.64	—
Max	41	45	+27
Min	7	7	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.43	28.71	-0.29
SD	11.63	11.28	18.71
CV	0.41	0.39	—
Max	45	52	+28
Min	10	10	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	12.64	+9.86
SD	14.42	7.93	10.70
CV	0.64	0.63	—
Max	45	24	+38
Min	0	3	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.64	10.57	+19.07
SD	14.01	8.34	17.75
CV	0.47	0.79	—
Max	49	26	+49
Min	9	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.71	23.86	-8.14
SD	7.98	9.08	10.79
CV	0.51	0.38	—
Max	28	41	+14
Min	2	12	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.14	29.29	-11.14
SD	11.83	10.96	15.26
CV	0.65	0.37	—
Max	38	48	+24
Min	0	13	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.43	20.21	+8.21
SD	12.06	7.73	10.37
CV	0.42	0.38	—
Max	49	34	+31
Min	7	10	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	25.43	-5.29
SD	10.76	12.88	18.96
CV	0.53	0.51	—
Max	37	49	+28
Min	0	7	-49

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	25.93	-3.64
SD	8.35	12.31	15.45
CV	0.37	0.47	—
Max	39	45	+12
Min	7	7	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	23.64	-3.50
SD	8.76	10.99	14.27
CV	0.43	0.46	—
Max	35	45	+23
Min	3	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
Total	—	—	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.50	25.79	-5.29
SD	14.40	6.92	15.32
CV	0.70	0.27	—
Max	52	38	+32
Min	0	17	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	26.86	-5.07
SD	7.01	12.33	12.16
CV	0.32	0.46	—
Max	35	49	+10
Min	10	9	-28

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.54	+0.5
Allowed	0.58	-0.4
Differential	0.81	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	12	9.39	+2.61
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	6.71	+2.29
3	Green Bay Packers	13	10.91	+2.09
4	Chicago Bears	9	6.96	+2.04
5	Detroit Lions	11	9.22	+1.78

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Rams	1.5	4.46	-2.96
2	Philadelphia Eagles	3.5	6.36	-2.86
3	Minnesota Vikings	2.5	4.67	-2.17
4	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	5.47	-0.97
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.5	8.41	-0.91

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Giants	9	Oct 21 – Dec 16	1 in 36
2	Washington Redskins	3	Sep 23 – Oct 7	1 in 25
3	Green Bay Packers	10	Sep 16 – Nov 18	1 in 25
4	Detroit Lions	7	Oct 28 – Dec 9	1 in 18
5	St. Louis Cardinals	2	Dec 9 – Dec 16	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Oct 6 – Oct 28	1 in 56
2	Los Angeles Rams	6	Sep 16 – Oct 21	1 in 46
3	San Francisco 49ers	4	Oct 21 – Nov 11	1 in 16
4	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 18 – Dec 16	1 in 14
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	2	Sep 23 – Sep 30	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
New York Giants	52.21%	24.62%	11.74%	6.08%	3.26%	1.54%	0.56%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.42%	29.72%	17.90%	11.43%	7.08%	4.32%	2.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.98%	13.68%	18.31%	18.10%	16.87%	14.58%	11.48%
Dallas Cowboys	4.71%	10.62%	16.00%	18.09%	18.55%	17.34%	14.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.27%	9.93%	15.71%	18.25%	18.72%	17.85%	15.27%
Washington Redskins	2.41%	6.23%	10.94%	14.84%	18.30%	21.72%	25.55%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.00%	5.20%	9.41%	13.21%	17.22%	22.64%	30.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	71.66%	20.72%	5.53%	1.54%	0.43%	0.10%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	20.91%	44.63%	19.67%	9.13%	4.04%	1.30%	0.33%
Baltimore Colts	2.59%	11.98%	24.28%	24.19%	19.27%	11.88%	5.81%
Chicago Bears	2.94%	12.14%	23.18%	23.86%	19.96%	11.92%	6.00%
San Francisco 49ers	1.68%	8.39%	18.72%	22.93%	23.01%	16.09%	9.19%
Minnesota Vikings	0.15%	1.25%	4.89%	9.89%	17.29%	29.52%	37.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.89%	3.73%	8.45%	16.00%	29.20%	41.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Green Bay Packers	55.75%	21.95%	11.17%	5.35%	2.75%	1.44%	0.80%	0.40%	0.20%	0.10%	0.06%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New York Giants	15.92%	27.20%	16.86%	13.82%	8.28%	6.10%	4.06%	2.88%	2.03%	1.24%	0.86%	0.45%	0.24%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	15.19%	17.41%	21.84%	14.83%	10.44%	6.96%	4.84%	3.38%	2.10%	1.49%	0.80%	0.43%	0.21%	0.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	6.46%	14.85%	15.25%	16.37%	11.34%	9.49%	7.18%	5.72%	4.31%	3.34%	2.51%	1.67%	1.09%	0.42%
Baltimore Colts	1.44%	2.94%	6.42%	7.91%	11.10%	11.02%	11.22%	10.67%	9.45%	8.65%	6.72%	5.69%	4.01%	2.76%
Chicago Bears	1.70%	3.18%	6.50%	7.66%	10.75%	10.81%	10.97%	10.64%	9.57%	8.83%	6.94%	5.61%	4.03%	2.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.05%	3.79%	5.57%	7.79%	9.18%	9.98%	9.88%	9.81%	9.53%	8.67%	8.08%	6.96%	5.96%	3.75%
San Francisco 49ers	0.87%	1.91%	4.33%	5.67%	8.58%	9.24%	10.34%	10.67%	10.36%	10.55%	8.67%	8.00%	6.01%	4.79%
Dallas Cowboys	0.56%	2.38%	3.92%	6.33%	7.67%	9.14%	9.52%	9.88%	10.07%	9.81%	9.48%	8.46%	7.64%	5.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.56%	2.11%	3.55%	5.99%	7.45%	8.95%	9.67%	10.18%	10.42%	9.91%	9.86%	8.51%	7.70%	5.14%
Washington Redskins	0.21%	1.11%	2.05%	3.66%	4.85%	6.38%	7.50%	8.43%	9.62%	10.36%	11.38%	11.42%	12.39%	10.63%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.23%	0.93%	1.72%	2.98%	4.19%	5.59%	6.52%	7.65%	8.98%	9.85%	11.93%	12.65%	14.58%	12.19%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.15%	0.49%	1.02%	2.00%	2.78%	4.11%	5.16%	6.99%	8.91%	11.51%	15.09%	17.51%	24.26%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	0.08%	0.34%	0.62%	1.42%	2.14%	3.39%	4.52%	6.36%	8.30%	11.20%	15.04%	18.64%	27.92%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	52.21%	47.79%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.42%	72.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.98%	93.02%
Dallas Cowboys	4.71%	95.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.27%	95.73%
Washington Redskins	2.41%	97.59%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.00%	98.00%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	71.66%	28.34%
Detroit Lions	20.91%	79.09%
Chicago Bears	2.94%	97.06%
Baltimore Colts	2.59%	97.41%
San Francisco 49ers	1.68%	98.32%
Minnesota Vikings	0.15%	99.85%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	99.92%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

-2.04%

No Edge

46.94%4.08%48.98%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -7.09 Elo pts.

23 Elo

0.044 points per Elo point

060

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.58 points

Lean Road

-8-0.31+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.0

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

50%

Green Bay Packers, 1st of 14

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

58.0%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.38 · As Expected: 1.38 to 1.9 · Elevated: 1.9 to 2.59 · High Variance: 2.59 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.03 · Close: 2.03 to 2.74 · Off Target: 2.74 to 3.58 · Well Off Target: 3.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.7 · As Expected: 0.7 to 1.68 · Several Outliers: 1.68 to 3.08 · Many Outliers: 3.08 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.57 · As Expected: 0.57 to 0.95 · More Than Expected: 0.95 to 1.52 · Far More Than Expected: 1.52 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.85 wins

As Expected

01.734

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.93

Pinpoint

02.395

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.43%

98.39%

New York Giants

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.57%

4.07%

Los Angeles Rams

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 14

Many Outliers

01.47

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.27

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.00

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

20%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Routine

0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.19

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.23

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

0.55

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%32%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.32 · Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.60

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.21

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.148

Within Noise

00.1600.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	71.66%	50.31%
New York Giants	52.21%	24.21%
Detroit Lions	20.91%	13.25%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.42%	5.97%
Chicago Bears	2.94%	1.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.98%	1.43%
Baltimore Colts	2.59%	0.95%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.27%	0.60%
Dallas Cowboys	4.71%	0.60%
San Francisco 49ers	1.68%	0.53%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.00%	0.35%
Washington Redskins	2.41%	0.22%
Minnesota Vikings	0.15%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	53.7%0.53%	36.0%0.92%	25.4%6.14%	18.3%19.42%	86.2%0.03%	59.6%0.05%	59.2%0.34%
Dallas Cowboys	29.6%0.12%	22.1%0.10%	13.5%1.10%	10.5%3.29%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	43.0%0.09%
New York Giants	77.2%1.49%	63.7%1.43%	52.4%10.12%	41.9%38.07%	93.3%0.03%	91.6%0.08%	80.2%0.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.8%0.12%	28.7%0.13%	15.5%1.13%	11.0%2.80%	60.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	43.0%0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	44.8%0.22%	34.1%0.22%	23.6%1.30%	17.2%5.12%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	57.1%0.10%
St. Louis Cardinals	35.5%0.06%	24.7%0.08%	19.0%0.56%	14.2%1.26%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	64.3%0.03%
Washington Redskins	25.6%0.04%	12.1%0.06%	11.2%0.56%	7.6%1.69%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	24.1%0.06%
Baltimore Colts								46.3%0.53%	70.4%0.12%	22.8%1.49%	67.2%0.12%	55.2%0.22%	64.5%0.06%	74.4%0.04%
Chicago Bears								64.0%0.92%	77.9%0.10%	36.3%1.43%	71.3%0.13%	65.9%0.22%	75.3%0.08%	87.9%0.06%
Detroit Lions								74.6%6.14%	86.5%1.10%	47.6%10.12%	84.5%1.13%	76.4%1.30%	81.0%0.56%	88.8%0.56%
Green Bay Packers								81.7%19.42%	89.5%3.29%	58.1%38.07%	89.0%2.80%	82.8%5.12%	85.8%1.26%	92.4%1.69%
Los Angeles Rams								13.8%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	6.7%0.03%	40.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings								40.4%0.05%	20.0%<0.01%	8.4%0.08%	60.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers								40.8%0.34%	57.0%0.09%	19.8%0.98%	57.0%0.08%	42.9%0.10%	35.7%0.03%	75.9%0.06%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	57.97%
New York Giants	42.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants
New York Giants	42.0%100.00%
Green Bay Packers		58.0%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 57.97% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.97%

New York Giants 42.03% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.03%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1962-09-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-27	1506.67	1461.70	53.54%	40.77%	+14.81	1-0
1962-09-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-7	1521.48	1417.57	61.63%	33.03%	+36.19	2-0
1962-09-30	Detroit Lions	L 20-29	1557.67	1609.09	39.88%	54.45%	-25.12	2-1
1962-10-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-21	1532.55	1475.44	55.25%	39.11%	-32.29	2-2
1962-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 36-14	1500.26	1527.11	43.29%	50.97%	+49.59	3-2
1962-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 15-35	1549.85	1502.73	53.85%	40.47%	-49.81	3-3
1962-10-28	Green Bay Packers	L 6-17	1500.04	1751.94	17.85%	78.41%	-12.37	3-4
1962-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 22-3	1487.67	1459.21	51.20%	43.06%	+39.29	4-4
1962-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-2	1526.96	1359.97	69.49%	25.77%	+18.81	5-4
1962-11-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-17	1545.77	1800.09	17.65%	78.63%	-7.38	5-5
1962-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 0-57	1538.39	1522.44	49.41%	44.83%	-77.50	5-6
1962-12-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-21	1460.89	1717.68	17.45%	78.86%	-9.64	5-7
1962-12-08	Washington Redskins	W 34-21	1451.25	1372.18	58.29%	36.19%	+27.47	6-7
1962-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-17	1478.72	1322.92	68.17%	26.97%	+28.43	7-7
1962-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-14	1503.83	1518.91	44.95%	49.28%	+40.96	1-0
1962-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-23	1544.79	1446.88	60.83%	33.78%	+14.24	2-0
1962-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-49	1559.03	1662.11	33.13%	61.52%	-48.90	2-1
1962-10-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-0	1510.13	1351.35	68.53%	26.65%	+20.26	3-1
1962-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-34	1530.39	1507.72	50.37%	43.88%	-27.66	3-2
1962-10-21	Baltimore Colts	W 35-15	1502.73	1549.85	40.47%	53.85%	+49.81	4-2
1962-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-11	1552.54	1610.69	38.97%	55.40%	-23.16	4-3
1962-11-04	Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1529.38	1764.31	19.26%	76.79%	-22.46	4-4
1962-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1506.92	1383.95	64.11%	30.72%	+6.48	5-4
1962-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-33	1513.40	1485.71	51.09%	43.17%	+9.04	6-4
1962-11-25	@ Baltimore Colts	W 57-0	1522.44	1538.39	44.83%	49.41%	+77.50	7-4
1962-12-02	New York Giants	L 24-26	1599.94	1696.89	33.90%	60.71%	-10.11	7-5
1962-12-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-14	1589.83	1312.47	80.67%	15.88%	+13.23	8-5
1962-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 3-0	1603.06	1734.08	29.77%	65.13%	+23.12	9-5
1962-09-16	New York Giants	W 17-7	1552.08	1559.66	46.03%	48.20%	+31.72	1-0
1962-09-23	Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1583.80	1384.21	73.16%	22.47%	-14.91	1-1
1962-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1568.89	1486.34	58.77%	35.74%	-64.05	1-2
1962-10-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-10	1504.84	1418.44	59.29%	35.24%	+22.27	2-2
1962-10-14	Baltimore Colts	L 14-36	1527.11	1500.26	50.97%	43.29%	-49.58	2-3
1962-10-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-7	1477.53	1435.89	53.07%	41.23%	+44.91	3-3
1962-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-14	1522.44	1446.69	57.84%	36.63%	+40.06	4-3
1962-11-04	Philadelphia Eagles	T 14-14	1562.50	1396.97	69.32%	25.92%	-2.18	4-3
1962-11-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-17	1560.32	1408.66	67.67%	27.42%	-39.16	4-4
1962-11-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-14	1521.16	1381.53	66.20%	28.78%	+29.73	5-4
1962-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-14	1550.89	1475.39	57.80%	36.66%	+35.36	6-4
1962-12-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-45	1586.25	1429.87	68.24%	26.91%	-68.37	6-5
1962-12-09	@ New York Giants	L 13-17	1517.88	1707.00	23.49%	72.01%	-9.89	6-6
1962-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-10	1507.99	1472.39	52.22%	42.07%	+15.26	7-6
1962-09-16	Washington Redskins	T 35-35	1395.53	1384.05	48.77%	45.47%	-0.16	0-0
1962-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-30	1395.37	1433.14	41.76%	52.53%	-12.38	0-1
1962-09-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-17	1382.99	1432.64	40.12%	54.21%	+35.45	1-1
1962-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-19	1418.44	1504.84	35.24%	59.29%	-22.27	1-2
1962-10-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-19	1396.17	1518.49	30.79%	64.02%	+61.60	2-2
1962-10-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-27	1457.77	1488.01	42.81%	51.45%	+41.32	3-2
1962-10-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-28	1499.09	1390.97	62.18%	32.51%	-25.55	3-3
1962-11-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-10	1473.54	1458.32	49.30%	44.94%	+49.66	4-3
1962-11-11	New York Giants	L 10-41	1523.20	1636.12	31.93%	62.81%	-37.49	4-4
1962-11-18	Chicago Bears	L 33-34	1485.71	1513.40	43.17%	51.09%	-9.03	4-5
1962-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-28	1476.68	1378.79	60.83%	33.78%	-46.81	4-6
1962-12-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 45-21	1429.87	1586.25	26.91%	68.24%	+68.38	5-6
1962-12-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-52	1498.25	1307.56	72.19%	23.34%	-83.27	5-7
1962-12-16	@ New York Giants	L 31-41	1414.98	1716.88	14.15%	82.69%	-9.28	5-8
1962-09-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-7	1521.99	1487.70	52.03%	42.25%	+54.55	1-0
1962-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 45-24	1576.54	1477.95	60.92%	33.70%	+32.55	2-0
1962-09-30	@ Baltimore Colts	W 29-20	1609.09	1557.67	54.45%	39.88%	+25.12	3-0
1962-10-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-9	1634.21	1711.01	36.49%	57.98%	-10.86	3-1
1962-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 13-10	1623.35	1376.05	77.98%	18.22%	+6.60	4-1
1962-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1629.95	1583.64	53.73%	40.58%	-19.26	4-2
1962-10-28	Chicago Bears	W 11-3	1610.69	1552.54	55.40%	38.97%	+23.16	5-2
1962-11-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 12-3	1633.85	1370.58	79.44%	16.95%	+10.61	6-2
1962-11-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-24	1644.46	1419.93	75.76%	20.16%	+15.82	7-2
1962-11-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-6	1660.28	1377.47	81.14%	15.48%	+10.68	8-2
1962-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1670.96	1807.47	29.13%	65.81%	+46.72	9-2
1962-12-02	Baltimore Colts	W 21-14	1717.68	1460.89	78.86%	17.45%	+9.64	10-2
1962-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-23	1727.32	1329.68	89.00%	8.84%	+6.76	11-2
1962-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-3	1734.08	1603.06	65.13%	29.77%	-23.12	11-3
1962-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-7	1603.66	1447.02	68.27%	26.88%	+29.45	1-0
1962-09-23	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-0	1633.11	1531.91	61.27%	33.37%	+29.00	2-0
1962-09-30	Chicago Bears	W 49-0	1662.11	1559.03	61.52%	33.13%	+48.90	3-0
1962-10-07	Detroit Lions	W 9-7	1711.01	1634.21	57.98%	36.49%	+10.86	4-0
1962-10-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 48-21	1721.87	1331.10	88.62%	9.16%	+9.73	5-0
1962-10-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-13	1731.60	1535.38	72.79%	22.80%	+20.34	6-0
1962-10-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-6	1751.94	1500.04	78.41%	17.85%	+12.37	7-0
1962-11-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-7	1764.31	1529.38	76.79%	19.26%	+22.46	8-0
1962-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-0	1786.77	1399.14	88.44%	9.30%	+13.32	9-0
1962-11-18	Baltimore Colts	W 17-13	1800.09	1545.77	78.63%	17.65%	+7.38	10-0
1962-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-26	1807.47	1670.96	65.81%	29.13%	-46.71	10-1
1962-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	W 41-10	1760.76	1320.50	91.10%	7.10%	+8.03	11-1
1962-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-21	1768.79	1482.40	81.43%	15.23%	+10.01	12-1
1962-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-17	1778.80	1299.25	92.72%	5.78%	+2.03	13-1
1962-09-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 27-30	1461.70	1506.67	40.77%	53.54%	-14.82	0-1
1962-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 23-27	1446.88	1544.79	33.78%	60.83%	-14.24	0-2
1962-09-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1432.64	1382.99	54.21%	40.12%	-35.44	0-3
1962-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1397.20	1439.16	41.18%	53.12%	-21.15	0-4
1962-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1376.05	1623.35	18.22%	77.98%	-6.60	0-5
1962-10-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-38	1369.45	1321.37	53.98%	40.34%	-54.70	0-6
1962-10-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-14	1314.75	1515.04	22.40%	73.23%	+55.83	1-6
1962-11-04	Detroit Lions	L 3-12	1370.58	1633.85	16.95%	79.44%	-10.61	1-7
1962-11-11	Baltimore Colts	L 2-14	1359.97	1526.96	25.77%	69.49%	-18.81	1-8
1962-11-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1341.16	1404.10	38.33%	56.07%	-21.31	1-9
1962-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	T 24-24	1319.85	1366.78	40.50%	53.82%	+0.65	1-9
1962-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-41	1320.50	1760.76	7.10%	91.10%	-8.03	1-10
1962-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-30	1312.47	1589.83	15.88%	80.67%	-13.22	1-11
1962-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1299.25	1778.80	5.78%	92.72%	-2.03	1-12
1962-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-34	1447.02	1603.66	26.88%	68.27%	-29.45	0-1
1962-09-23	Baltimore Colts	L 7-34	1417.57	1521.48	33.03%	61.63%	-36.18	0-2
1962-09-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-21	1381.39	1445.40	38.18%	56.22%	-30.04	0-3
1962-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 0-13	1351.35	1510.13	26.65%	68.53%	-20.25	0-4
1962-10-14	Green Bay Packers	L 21-48	1331.10	1721.87	9.16%	88.62%	-9.73	0-5
1962-10-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-14	1321.37	1369.45	40.34%	53.98%	+54.69	1-5
1962-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-21	1376.06	1433.05	39.13%	55.24%	+36.09	2-5
1962-11-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-39	1412.15	1406.64	47.91%	46.32%	-28.20	2-6
1962-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 30-31	1383.95	1506.92	30.72%	64.11%	-6.48	2-7
1962-11-18	Detroit Lions	L 6-17	1377.47	1660.28	15.48%	81.14%	-10.69	2-8
1962-11-25	Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1366.78	1319.85	53.82%	40.50%	-0.66	2-8
1962-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-35	1366.12	1445.96	36.09%	58.40%	-36.44	2-9
1962-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-37	1329.68	1727.32	8.84%	89.00%	-6.76	2-10
1962-12-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-42	1322.92	1478.72	26.97%	68.17%	-28.43	2-11
1962-09-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1559.66	1552.08	48.20%	46.03%	-31.72	0-1
1962-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-13	1527.94	1525.30	47.49%	46.73%	+38.96	1-1
1962-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-27	1566.90	1445.52	63.90%	30.91%	+13.04	2-1
1962-10-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-14	1579.94	1462.87	63.35%	31.42%	+27.33	3-1
1962-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1607.27	1464.38	66.60%	28.41%	-23.63	3-2
1962-10-21	Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1583.64	1629.95	40.58%	53.73%	+19.26	4-2
1962-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 49-34	1602.90	1483.79	63.61%	31.18%	+25.47	5-2
1962-11-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-28	1628.37	1416.52	74.46%	21.31%	+7.75	6-2
1962-11-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-10	1636.12	1523.20	62.81%	31.93%	+37.49	7-2
1962-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 19-14	1673.61	1385.82	81.55%	15.13%	+7.03	8-2
1962-11-25	@ Washington Redskins	W 42-24	1680.64	1434.51	77.86%	18.32%	+16.25	9-2
1962-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-24	1696.89	1599.94	60.71%	33.90%	+10.11	10-2
1962-12-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1707.00	1517.88	72.01%	23.49%	+9.88	11-2
1962-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-31	1716.88	1414.98	82.69%	14.15%	+9.29	12-2
1962-09-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-27	1552.65	1504.56	53.98%	40.34%	-27.35	0-1
1962-09-23	New York Giants	L 13-29	1525.30	1527.94	46.73%	47.49%	-38.96	0-2
1962-09-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-7	1486.34	1568.89	35.74%	58.77%	+64.05	1-2
1962-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1550.39	1432.48	63.45%	31.32%	-31.90	1-3
1962-10-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-41	1518.49	1396.17	64.02%	30.79%	-61.61	1-4
1962-10-21	Washington Redskins	L 21-27	1456.88	1459.96	46.67%	47.56%	-23.83	1-5
1962-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-31	1433.05	1376.06	55.24%	39.13%	-36.08	1-6
1962-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 14-14	1396.97	1562.50	25.92%	69.32%	+2.17	1-6
1962-11-11	Green Bay Packers	L 0-49	1399.14	1786.77	9.30%	88.44%	-13.32	1-7
1962-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 14-19	1385.82	1673.61	15.13%	81.55%	-7.03	1-8
1962-11-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-14	1378.79	1476.68	33.78%	60.83%	+46.80	2-8
1962-12-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-14	1425.59	1418.26	48.17%	46.06%	+46.08	3-8
1962-12-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-26	1471.67	1463.73	48.26%	45.97%	-30.12	3-9
1962-12-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 35-45	1441.55	1390.82	54.36%	39.98%	-35.54	3-10
1962-09-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-45	1487.70	1521.99	42.25%	52.03%	-54.56	0-1
1962-09-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-28	1433.14	1395.37	52.53%	41.76%	+12.38	1-1
1962-09-30	New York Giants	L 27-31	1445.52	1566.90	30.91%	63.90%	-13.04	1-2
1962-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-7	1432.48	1550.39	31.32%	63.45%	+31.90	2-2
1962-10-14	@ New York Giants	W 20-17	1464.38	1607.27	28.41%	66.60%	+23.63	3-2
1962-10-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-42	1488.01	1457.77	51.45%	42.81%	-41.32	3-3
1962-10-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-41	1446.69	1522.44	36.63%	57.84%	-40.05	3-4
1962-11-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 39-31	1406.64	1412.15	46.32%	47.91%	+28.20	4-4
1962-11-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-17	1434.84	1408.77	50.86%	43.40%	+27.24	5-4
1962-11-18	Washington Redskins	W 23-21	1462.08	1447.82	49.16%	45.07%	+13.31	6-4
1962-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-35	1475.39	1550.89	36.66%	57.80%	-35.35	6-5
1962-12-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 19-7	1440.04	1331.25	62.27%	32.43%	+23.69	7-5
1962-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-17	1463.73	1471.67	45.97%	48.26%	+30.11	8-5
1962-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1493.84	1344.71	67.37%	27.71%	+10.12	9-5
1962-09-16	Chicago Bears	L 14-30	1518.91	1503.83	49.28%	44.95%	-40.96	0-1
1962-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-45	1477.95	1576.54	33.70%	60.92%	-32.55	0-2
1962-09-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1445.40	1381.39	56.22%	38.18%	+30.04	1-2
1962-10-07	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-13	1475.44	1532.55	39.11%	55.25%	+32.28	2-2
1962-10-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-27	1507.72	1530.39	43.88%	50.37%	+27.66	3-2
1962-10-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-31	1535.38	1731.60	22.80%	72.79%	-20.34	3-3
1962-10-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-28	1515.04	1314.75	73.23%	22.40%	-55.83	3-4
1962-11-04	Baltimore Colts	L 3-22	1459.21	1487.67	43.06%	51.20%	-39.28	3-5
1962-11-11	Detroit Lions	L 24-38	1419.93	1644.46	20.16%	75.76%	-15.83	3-6
1962-11-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1404.10	1341.16	56.07%	38.33%	+21.32	4-6
1962-11-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-17	1425.42	1351.79	57.54%	36.91%	+20.54	5-6
1962-12-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-12	1445.96	1366.12	58.40%	36.09%	+36.44	6-6
1962-12-09	Green Bay Packers	L 21-31	1482.40	1768.79	15.23%	81.43%	-10.01	6-7
1962-12-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1472.39	1507.99	42.07%	52.22%	-15.26	6-8
1962-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1504.56	1552.65	40.34%	53.98%	+27.35	1-0
1962-09-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1531.91	1633.11	33.37%	61.27%	-29.00	1-1
1962-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1502.91	1399.12	61.61%	33.05%	-40.04	1-2
1962-10-07	New York Giants	L 14-31	1462.87	1579.94	31.42%	63.35%	-27.33	1-3
1962-10-14	Washington Redskins	T 17-17	1435.54	1460.31	43.58%	50.67%	+0.35	1-3
1962-10-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-34	1435.89	1477.53	41.23%	53.07%	-44.92	1-4
1962-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-24	1390.97	1499.09	32.51%	62.18%	+25.55	2-4
1962-11-04	@ New York Giants	L 28-31	1416.52	1628.37	21.31%	74.46%	-7.75	2-5
1962-11-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-26	1408.77	1434.84	43.40%	50.86%	-27.24	2-6
1962-11-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-38	1381.53	1521.16	28.78%	66.20%	-29.74	2-7
1962-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-24	1351.79	1425.42	36.91%	57.54%	-20.54	2-8
1962-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-19	1331.25	1440.04	32.43%	62.27%	-23.69	2-9
1962-12-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 52-20	1307.56	1498.25	23.34%	72.19%	+83.26	3-9
1962-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-35	1390.82	1441.55	39.98%	54.36%	+35.54	4-9
1962-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 35-35	1384.05	1395.53	45.47%	48.77%	+0.16	0-0
1962-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1384.21	1583.80	22.47%	73.16%	+14.91	1-0
1962-09-30	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-14	1399.12	1502.91	33.05%	61.61%	+40.04	2-0
1962-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1439.16	1397.20	53.12%	41.18%	+21.15	3-0
1962-10-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	T 17-17	1460.31	1435.54	50.67%	43.58%	-0.35	3-0
1962-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1459.96	1456.88	47.56%	46.67%	+23.83	4-0
1962-10-28	@ New York Giants	L 34-49	1483.79	1602.90	31.18%	63.61%	-25.47	4-1
1962-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1458.32	1473.54	44.94%	49.30%	-49.66	4-2
1962-11-11	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-9	1408.66	1560.32	27.42%	67.67%	+39.16	5-2
1962-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-23	1447.82	1462.08	45.07%	49.16%	-13.31	5-3
1962-11-25	New York Giants	L 24-42	1434.51	1680.64	18.32%	77.86%	-16.25	5-4
1962-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-37	1418.26	1425.59	46.06%	48.17%	-46.08	5-5
1962-12-08	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-34	1372.18	1451.25	36.19%	58.29%	-27.47	5-6
1962-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1344.71	1493.84	27.71%	67.37%	-10.12	5-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1962-12-30	@ New York Giants	W 16-7	1780.83	1726.17	57.80%	42.20%	+24.85	1-0
1962-12-30	Green Bay Packers	L 7-16	1726.17	1780.83	42.20%	57.80%	-24.85	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1962-10-28	22.40%	Los Angeles Rams	1314.75	28	@ San Francisco 49ers	1515.04	14
2	1962-09-23	22.47%	Washington Redskins	1384.21	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1583.80	16
3	1962-12-09	23.34%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1307.56	52	Dallas Cowboys	1498.25	20
4	1962-12-02	26.91%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1429.87	45	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1586.25	21
5	1962-11-11	27.42%	@ Washington Redskins	1408.66	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1560.32	9
6	1962-10-14	28.41%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1464.38	20	@ New York Giants	1607.27	17
7	1962-11-22	29.13%	@ Detroit Lions	1670.96	26	Green Bay Packers	1807.47	14
8	1962-12-16	29.77%	@ Chicago Bears	1603.06	3	Detroit Lions	1734.08	0
9	1962-10-14	30.79%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1396.17	41	Philadelphia Eagles	1518.49	19
10	1962-10-06	31.32%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1432.48	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1550.39	7
11	1962-10-28	32.51%	St. Louis Cardinals	1390.97	28	@ Dallas Cowboys	1499.09	24
12	1962-09-30	33.05%	@ Washington Redskins	1399.12	24	St. Louis Cardinals	1502.91	14
13	1962-11-25	33.78%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1378.79	28	Dallas Cowboys	1476.68	14
14	1962-09-30	35.74%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1486.34	35	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1568.89	7
15	1962-10-07	39.11%	San Francisco 49ers	1475.44	21	@ Baltimore Colts	1532.55	13
16	1962-10-28	39.13%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1376.06	31	Philadelphia Eagles	1433.05	21
17	1962-12-16	39.98%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1390.82	45	Philadelphia Eagles	1441.55	35
18	1962-09-30	40.12%	Dallas Cowboys	1382.99	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1432.64	17
19	1962-09-16	40.34%	St. Louis Cardinals	1504.56	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1552.65	21
20	1962-10-21	40.34%	Minnesota Vikings	1321.37	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1369.45	14
21	1962-10-21	40.47%	@ Chicago Bears	1502.73	35	Baltimore Colts	1549.85	15
22	1962-10-21	40.58%	@ New York Giants	1583.64	17	Detroit Lions	1629.95	14
23	1962-10-21	42.81%	Dallas Cowboys	1457.77	42	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1488.01	27
24	1962-10-14	43.29%	Baltimore Colts	1500.26	36	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1527.11	14
25	1962-10-14	43.88%	San Francisco 49ers	1507.72	34	@ Chicago Bears	1530.39	27

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1962-12-09	83.27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	52	1307.56	23.34%	Dallas Cowboys	20	1498.25	72.19%
2	1962-11-25	77.50	Chicago Bears	57	1522.44	44.83%	@ Baltimore Colts	0	1538.39	49.41%
3	1962-12-02	68.38	@ Dallas Cowboys	45	1429.87	26.91%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1586.25	68.24%
4	1962-09-30	64.05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	35	1486.34	35.74%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1568.89	58.77%
5	1962-10-14	61.61	@ Dallas Cowboys	41	1396.17	30.79%	Philadelphia Eagles	19	1518.49	64.02%
6	1962-10-28	55.83	Los Angeles Rams	28	1314.75	22.40%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1515.04	73.23%
7	1962-10-21	54.70	Minnesota Vikings	38	1321.37	40.34%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1369.45	53.98%
8	1962-09-16	54.56	@ Detroit Lions	45	1521.99	52.03%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1487.70	42.25%
9	1962-10-21	49.81	@ Chicago Bears	35	1502.73	40.47%	Baltimore Colts	15	1549.85	53.85%
10	1962-11-04	49.66	Dallas Cowboys	38	1473.54	49.30%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1458.32	44.94%
11	1962-10-14	49.59	Baltimore Colts	36	1500.26	43.29%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1527.11	50.97%
12	1962-09-30	48.90	@ Green Bay Packers	49	1662.11	61.52%	Chicago Bears	0	1559.03	33.13%
13	1962-11-25	46.81	@ Philadelphia Eagles	28	1378.79	33.78%	Dallas Cowboys	14	1476.68	60.83%
14	1962-11-22	46.72	@ Detroit Lions	26	1670.96	29.13%	Green Bay Packers	14	1807.47	65.81%
15	1962-12-02	46.08	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1425.59	48.17%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1418.26	46.06%
16	1962-10-21	44.92	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1477.53	53.07%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	7	1435.89	41.23%
17	1962-10-21	41.32	Dallas Cowboys	42	1457.77	42.81%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1488.01	51.45%
18	1962-09-16	40.96	Chicago Bears	30	1503.83	44.95%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1518.91	49.28%
19	1962-10-28	40.06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	41	1522.44	57.84%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1446.69	36.63%
20	1962-09-30	40.04	@ Washington Redskins	24	1399.12	33.05%	St. Louis Cardinals	14	1502.91	61.61%
21	1962-11-04	39.29	Baltimore Colts	22	1487.67	51.20%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1459.21	43.06%
22	1962-11-11	39.16	@ Washington Redskins	17	1408.66	27.42%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	1560.32	67.67%
23	1962-09-23	38.96	New York Giants	29	1527.94	47.49%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1525.30	46.73%
24	1962-11-11	37.49	New York Giants	41	1636.12	62.81%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1523.20	31.93%
25	1962-12-02	36.44	San Francisco 49ers	35	1445.96	58.40%	@ Minnesota Vikings	12	1366.12	36.09%