1961 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

7th Title

Last Title: 1944

Runner-Up

New York Giants

12th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1959

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

2.48 wins above expected

10 wins · 8.02 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Minnesota Vikings

2.90 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.90 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	10	3	1	.750	-	368	220	+148	8.02	+2.48
2	Philadelphia Eagles	10	4	0	.714	0.5	361	297	+64	8.87	+1.13
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	5	1	.607	2	319	270	+49	8.85	-0.35
4	St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	0	.500	3.5	279	267	+12	7.54	-0.54
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	8	0	.429	4.5	295	287	+8	6.84	-0.84
6	Dallas Cowboys	4	9	1	.321	6	236	380	-144	4.82	-0.32
7	Washington Redskins	1	12	1	.107	9	174	392	-218	3.71	-2.21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	11	3	0	.786	-	391	223	+168	9.27	+1.73
2	Detroit Lions	8	5	1	.607	2.5	270	258	+12	7.41	+1.09
3	Chicago Bears	8	6	0	.571	3	326	302	+24	5.92	+2.08
4	Baltimore Colts	8	6	0	.571	3	302	307	-5	7.12	+0.88
5	San Francisco 49ers	7	6	1	.536	3.5	346	272	+74	8.09	-0.59
6	Los Angeles Rams	4	10	0	.286	7	263	333	-70	5.64	-1.64
7	Minnesota Vikings	3	11	0	.214	8	285	407	-122	5.90	-2.90

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Green Bay Packers 37

New York Giants 0

Dec 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1665	11	9.27	+1.73	92.44%	1	6	8	9	10	12	14
New York Giants	East	1629	10.5	8.02	+2.48	93.92%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1605	10	8.87	+1.13	85.82%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1596	8.5	8.85	-0.35	46.70%	2	6	7	9	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	West	1543	8.5	7.41	+1.09	76.76%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	West	1531	7.5	8.09	-0.59	42.00%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Baltimore Colts	West	1513	8	7.12	+0.88	81.46%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1508	7	7.54	-0.54	54.37%	0	4	6	7	9	10	14
Chicago Bears	West	1507	8	5.92	+2.08	94.27%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1475	6	6.84	-0.84	48.19%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	1425	4	5.64	-1.64	31.14%	0	3	4	5	7	8	14
Minnesota Vikings	West	1395	3	5.90	-2.90	10.57%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Dallas Cowboys	East	1322	4.5	4.82	-0.32	49.14%	0	2	3	5	6	7	12
Washington Redskins	East	1285	1.5	3.71	-2.21	9.74%	0	1	2	3	5	6	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-
Dallas Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
New York Giants	-	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-
Philadelphia Eagles	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Chicago Bears	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	-
Detroit Lions	-	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	-
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-
Minnesota Vikings	-	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	2.04%	1.53%	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	6.63%
7–13	—	2.04%	4.08%	3.06%	3.57%	2.04%	1.02%	15.82%
14–20	2.04%	4.08%	11.22%	3.57%	3.06%	1.02%	1.02%	26.02%
21–27	1.53%	3.06%	3.57%	7.14%	2.55%	2.55%	2.04%	22.45%
28–34	1.02%	3.57%	3.06%	2.55%	4.08%	1.02%	—	15.31%
35–41	1.02%	2.04%	1.02%	2.55%	1.02%	—	0.51%	8.16%
42+	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	2.04%	—	0.51%	—	5.61%
Total	6.63%	15.82%	26.02%	22.45%	15.31%	8.16%	5.61%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.51	21.51	+0.00
SD	11.32	11.32	17.60
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	53	53	+53
Min	0	0	-53

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	21.93	-0.36
SD	9.85	11.47	15.94
CV	0.46	0.52	—
Max	45	45	+24
Min	7	0	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	21.57	+1.71
SD	12.09	11.30	14.96
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	52	41	+31
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.79	19.29	+3.50
SD	10.23	12.68	15.74
CV	0.45	0.66	—
Max	45	49	+24
Min	7	6	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	27.14	-10.29
SD	7.78	12.09	17.57
CV	0.46	0.45	—
Max	28	43	+28
Min	7	0	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.29	18.43	+0.86
SD	11.36	10.91	19.09
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	45	49	+31
Min	0	7	-49

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	35.71%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.93	15.93	+12.00
SD	10.22	10.97	16.35
CV	0.37	0.69	—
Max	49	45	+38
Min	13	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	23.79	-5.00
SD	8.62	9.62	14.78
CV	0.46	0.40	—
Max	34	42	+17
Min	0	7	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	29.07	-8.71
SD	13.66	10.82	16.51
CV	0.67	0.37	—
Max	42	52	+24
Min	0	13	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	42.86%	—	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.29	15.71	+10.57
SD	12.92	6.99	15.59
CV	0.49	0.44	—
Max	53	24	+53
Min	7	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	57.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.79	21.21	+4.57
SD	7.81	11.60	14.35
CV	0.30	0.55	—
Max	43	45	+36
Min	14	7	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.07	20.50	+0.57
SD	9.06	11.38	14.64
CV	0.43	0.56	—
Max	37	42	+30
Min	0	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	—	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.71	19.43	+5.29
SD	14.85	10.97	21.90
CV	0.60	0.56	—
Max	49	31	+49
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	19.07	+0.86
SD	10.98	11.66	16.55
CV	0.55	0.61	—
Max	38	45	+24
Min	0	0	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.43	28.00	-15.57
SD	11.59	9.68	15.62
CV	0.93	0.35	—
Max	34	53	+10
Min	0	14	-53

Games Played: 14

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+0.4
Allowed	0.77	-0.4
Differential	0.89	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	10.5	8.02	+2.48
2	Chicago Bears	8	5.92	+2.08
3	Green Bay Packers	11	9.27	+1.73
4	Philadelphia Eagles	10	8.87	+1.13
5	Detroit Lions	8.5	7.41	+1.09

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.90	-2.90
2	Washington Redskins	1.5	3.71	-2.21
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	5.64	-1.64
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6.84	-0.84
5	San Francisco 49ers	7.5	8.09	-0.59

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 8 – Oct 29	1 in 41
2	New York Giants	5	Sep 24 – Oct 22	1 in 22
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Sep 24 – Oct 29	1 in 15
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 29 – Nov 12	1 in 14
5	Dallas Cowboys	2	Sep 17 – Sep 24	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Vikings	7	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 101
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	Sep 17 – Oct 8	1 in 17
3	Washington Redskins	9	Sep 17 – Nov 12	1 in 14
4	St. Louis Cardinals	3	Nov 12 – Nov 26	1 in 9
5	Detroit Lions	2	Oct 1 – Oct 8	1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Philadelphia Eagles	32.20%	25.44%	18.75%	13.05%	7.45%	2.59%	0.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.69%	25.02%	19.01%	13.31%	7.80%	2.65%	0.51%
New York Giants	17.38%	20.53%	21.52%	19.05%	13.93%	6.03%	1.57%
St. Louis Cardinals	12.00%	16.25%	19.74%	21.62%	18.56%	9.09%	2.75%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05%	10.66%	15.67%	21.30%	25.84%	14.92%	5.56%
Dallas Cowboys	0.58%	1.71%	4.09%	8.47%	17.60%	39.02%	28.52%
Washington Redskins	0.10%	0.40%	1.22%	3.19%	8.81%	25.70%	60.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	46.72%	23.75%	13.50%	8.04%	4.65%	2.40%	0.95%
San Francisco 49ers	22.19%	24.13%	19.27%	14.41%	10.04%	6.39%	3.57%
Detroit Lions	12.39%	17.67%	19.02%	17.43%	14.52%	11.29%	7.67%
Baltimore Colts	10.36%	16.06%	18.35%	17.76%	15.74%	12.68%	9.05%
Minnesota Vikings	3.16%	6.87%	10.97%	15.21%	19.04%	21.77%	22.99%
Chicago Bears	2.97%	6.38%	10.24%	14.24%	18.28%	22.29%	25.60%
Los Angeles Rams	2.20%	5.15%	8.65%	12.91%	17.72%	23.20%	30.18%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Green Bay Packers	25.05%	19.47%	13.25%	11.17%	8.10%	6.58%	4.95%	3.77%	2.99%	1.95%	1.44%	0.79%	0.40%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.12%	16.21%	14.06%	11.49%	9.77%	8.18%	6.71%	5.30%	3.91%	2.87%	1.60%	1.14%	0.43%	0.20%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	18.80%	15.13%	13.91%	11.26%	10.13%	8.09%	6.82%	5.44%	3.86%	3.12%	1.69%	1.10%	0.45%	0.20%
San Francisco 49ers	9.25%	11.25%	11.43%	11.96%	10.20%	9.83%	8.34%	7.35%	6.16%	5.07%	4.01%	2.62%	1.86%	0.66%
New York Giants	9.25%	9.73%	10.88%	10.54%	10.73%	10.07%	9.36%	8.45%	6.51%	5.91%	3.58%	2.83%	1.44%	0.72%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.85%	7.05%	8.65%	8.80%	10.05%	9.65%	10.00%	9.75%	8.44%	8.15%	5.43%	4.46%	2.35%	1.38%
Detroit Lions	5.04%	6.71%	8.06%	8.89%	9.41%	9.77%	9.35%	9.22%	8.57%	7.42%	7.05%	5.03%	3.98%	1.49%
Baltimore Colts	3.64%	5.56%	6.80%	8.38%	8.74%	9.65%	9.49%	9.58%	9.28%	8.20%	7.84%	5.81%	4.83%	2.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.56%	3.92%	5.50%	6.11%	7.77%	8.31%	9.71%	10.48%	10.77%	11.36%	8.21%	7.45%	4.69%	3.15%
Minnesota Vikings	0.71%	1.66%	2.43%	3.73%	4.59%	6.16%	7.25%	8.67%	10.24%	10.87%	12.76%	11.25%	12.56%	7.11%
Chicago Bears	0.98%	1.64%	2.41%	3.48%	4.59%	5.65%	7.00%	7.98%	9.96%	10.62%	13.03%	12.43%	13.25%	6.99%
Los Angeles Rams	0.57%	1.24%	1.86%	2.87%	3.65%	4.90%	6.21%	7.49%	9.47%	10.29%	13.46%	13.33%	15.39%	9.27%
Dallas Cowboys	0.15%	0.38%	0.62%	1.06%	1.80%	2.45%	3.55%	4.74%	6.90%	9.40%	12.46%	18.48%	17.54%	20.48%
Washington Redskins	0.03%	0.06%	0.13%	0.26%	0.46%	0.69%	1.24%	1.77%	2.96%	4.76%	7.45%	13.28%	20.84%	46.06%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	32.20%	67.80%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.69%	68.31%
New York Giants	17.38%	82.62%
St. Louis Cardinals	12.00%	88.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05%	93.95%
Dallas Cowboys	0.58%	99.42%
Washington Redskins	0.10%	99.90%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	46.72%	53.28%
San Francisco 49ers	22.19%	77.81%
Detroit Lions	12.39%	87.61%
Baltimore Colts	10.36%	89.64%
Minnesota Vikings	3.16%	96.84%
Chicago Bears	2.97%	97.03%
Los Angeles Rams	2.20%	97.80%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+11.22%

Fortress

54.08%3.06%42.86%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 39.16 Elo pts.

16 Elo

0.064 points per Elo point

040

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.52 points

Lean Home

-8+2.52+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd · Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.1

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

29%

Green Bay Packers, 1st of 14

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

60.9%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.41 · As Expected: 1.41 to 1.94 · Elevated: 1.94 to 2.65 · High Variance: 2.65 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.16 · Close: 2.16 to 2.92 · Off Target: 2.92 to 3.81 · Well Off Target: 3.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.7 · As Expected: 0.7 to 1.68 · Several Outliers: 1.68 to 3.08 · Many Outliers: 3.08 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.91 · As Expected: 0.91 to 1.51 · More Than Expected: 1.51 to 2.42 · Far More Than Expected: 2.42 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.57 wins

As Expected

01.774

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.79

Pinpoint

02.546

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.43%

94.27%

Chicago Bears

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.57%

9.74%

Washington Redskins

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 14

Minimal Outliers

01.47

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.87

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

70%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

No Contest

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

28%

Some Drama

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

37%

Routine

0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.28

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.82

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.71

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%35%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.15 · Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.3 · Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.83

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.36

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.072

Well Within Noise

00.1490.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	46.72%	28.59%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.20%	17.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.69%	16.77%
New York Giants	17.38%	9.91%
San Francisco 49ers	22.19%	9.17%
Detroit Lions	12.39%	5.34%
St. Louis Cardinals	12.00%	4.69%
Baltimore Colts	10.36%	3.87%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.05%	2.05%
Chicago Bears	2.97%	1.11%
Minnesota Vikings	3.16%	0.70%
Los Angeles Rams	2.20%	0.61%
Dallas Cowboys	0.58%	0.10%
Washington Redskins	0.10%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	64.2%3.52%	65.2%0.84%	57.8%4.34%	40.7%13.89%	72.9%0.79%	77.9%1.05%	60.7%7.27%
Dallas Cowboys	14.7%0.07%	25.0%0.02%	19.5%0.08%	10.3%0.29%	36.8%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	24.3%0.11%
New York Giants	66.2%1.92%	64.6%0.61%	63.4%2.43%	45.0%7.50%	75.6%0.28%	84.5%0.57%	64.7%4.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	65.9%3.25%	68.3%0.85%	60.1%3.45%	41.7%15.90%	76.9%0.74%	81.0%0.95%	61.1%7.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.1%0.63%	47.6%0.25%	39.8%0.81%	23.8%3.08%	56.5%0.08%	63.8%0.20%	39.1%1.00%
St. Louis Cardinals	51.2%0.96%	52.7%0.41%	46.7%1.27%	28.3%6.00%	63.3%0.30%	68.5%0.38%	46.5%2.68%
Washington Redskins	28.6%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%	4.8%0.06%		28.6%<0.01%	14.3%0.01%
Baltimore Colts								35.8%3.52%	85.3%0.07%	33.8%1.92%	34.1%3.25%	50.9%0.63%	48.8%0.96%	71.4%<0.01%
Chicago Bears								34.8%0.84%	75.0%0.02%	35.4%0.61%	31.7%0.85%	52.4%0.25%	47.3%0.41%	33.3%<0.01%
Detroit Lions								42.2%4.34%	80.5%0.08%	36.6%2.43%	39.9%3.45%	60.2%0.81%	53.3%1.27%	100.0%0.01%
Green Bay Packers								59.3%13.89%	89.7%0.29%	55.0%7.50%	58.3%15.90%	76.2%3.08%	71.7%6.00%	95.2%0.06%
Los Angeles Rams								27.1%0.79%	63.2%0.02%	24.4%0.28%	23.1%0.74%	43.5%0.08%	36.7%0.30%
Minnesota Vikings								22.1%1.05%	33.3%<0.01%	15.5%0.57%	19.0%0.95%	36.2%0.20%	31.5%0.38%	71.4%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers								39.3%7.27%	75.7%0.11%	35.3%4.06%	38.9%7.07%	60.9%1.00%	53.5%2.68%	85.7%0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	60.89%
New York Giants	39.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants
New York Giants	39.1%100.00%
Green Bay Packers		60.9%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Green Bay Packers 60.89% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.89%

New York Giants 39.11% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.11%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-09-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1499.17	1461.81	58.96%	37.45%	+6.44	1-0
1961-09-24	Detroit Lions	L 15-16	1505.61	1545.59	48.01%	48.24%	-4.74	1-1
1961-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-33	1500.87	1494.08	54.70%	41.61%	+4.13	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-45	1505.00	1595.30	30.73%	65.94%	-18.83	2-2
1961-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1486.17	1447.72	48.02%	48.23%	-17.72	2-3
1961-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1468.45	1490.45	39.52%	56.83%	+9.65	3-3
1961-10-29	Chicago Bears	L 20-21	1478.10	1498.41	50.84%	45.43%	-5.00	3-4
1961-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 45-21	1473.10	1664.67	28.05%	68.77%	+32.83	4-4
1961-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-28	1505.93	1404.84	56.94%	39.42%	-15.78	4-5
1961-11-19	St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-0	1490.15	1493.96	53.19%	43.09%	+17.05	5-5
1961-11-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-6	1507.20	1299.15	70.71%	26.22%	+11.94	6-5
1961-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1519.14	1543.28	50.29%	45.97%	+7.86	7-5
1961-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1527.00	1407.12	59.53%	36.89%	-24.03	7-6
1961-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1502.97	1541.36	37.31%	59.10%	+10.02	8-6
1961-09-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-37	1441.07	1500.00	34.63%	61.87%	-16.85	0-1
1961-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 21-17	1424.22	1455.38	38.28%	58.10%	+11.38	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-24	1435.60	1583.49	24.30%	72.77%	-11.81	1-2
1961-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1423.79	1510.77	31.14%	65.52%	+23.93	2-2
1961-10-15	Baltimore Colts	W 24-10	1447.72	1486.17	48.23%	48.02%	+17.72	3-2
1961-10-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-0	1465.44	1592.60	35.94%	60.52%	+32.97	4-2
1961-10-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-20	1498.41	1478.10	45.43%	50.84%	+5.00	5-2
1961-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-16	1503.41	1622.84	27.36%	69.51%	-3.84	5-3
1961-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1499.57	1631.83	35.27%	61.21%	-6.07	5-4
1961-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-41	1493.50	1523.13	38.49%	57.89%	-12.07	5-5
1961-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-24	1481.43	1435.86	60.08%	36.37%	+7.22	6-5
1961-12-03	Detroit Lions	L 15-16	1488.65	1540.26	46.34%	49.92%	-4.58	6-6
1961-12-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-14	1484.07	1605.20	36.73%	59.70%	+10.13	7-6
1961-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 52-35	1494.20	1408.11	65.41%	31.24%	+12.80	8-6
1961-09-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-27	1604.65	1574.92	46.77%	49.48%	-12.21	0-1
1961-09-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-17	1592.44	1545.33	60.29%	36.16%	+6.22	1-1
1961-10-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 25-7	1598.66	1399.62	78.04%	19.42%	+8.15	2-1
1961-10-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1606.81	1353.70	82.76%	15.12%	+7.29	3-1
1961-10-15	Green Bay Packers	L 17-49	1614.10	1614.13	53.73%	42.56%	-29.85	3-2
1961-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-28	1584.25	1462.20	59.83%	36.61%	+5.14	4-2
1961-10-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-10	1589.39	1525.68	51.65%	44.62%	+14.62	5-2
1961-11-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1604.01	1474.77	70.66%	26.28%	-13.76	5-3
1961-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1590.25	1304.55	78.82%	18.70%	+6.13	6-3
1961-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-24	1596.38	1606.08	52.36%	43.92%	+19.91	7-3
1961-11-26	New York Giants	L 21-37	1616.29	1603.91	55.49%	40.84%	-21.78	7-4
1961-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-17	1594.51	1360.61	73.61%	23.52%	+10.69	8-4
1961-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1605.20	1484.07	59.70%	36.73%	-10.12	8-5
1961-12-17	@ New York Giants	T 7-7	1595.08	1629.36	37.86%	58.53%	+0.49	8-5
1961-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1366.73	1488.21	36.68%	59.75%	+10.13	1-0
1961-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1376.86	1516.85	34.28%	62.24%	+22.76	2-0
1961-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-25	1399.62	1598.66	19.42%	78.04%	-8.15	2-1
1961-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-0	1391.47	1489.96	29.76%	66.97%	+34.57	3-1
1961-10-15	New York Giants	L 10-31	1426.04	1539.08	37.80%	58.60%	-17.19	3-2
1961-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-43	1408.85	1603.33	27.73%	69.12%	-16.53	3-3
1961-10-29	@ New York Giants	W 17-16	1392.32	1564.90	21.85%	75.41%	+7.33	4-3
1961-11-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1399.65	1511.05	38.02%	58.37%	-14.12	4-4
1961-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-37	1385.53	1488.53	29.23%	67.52%	-15.91	4-5
1961-11-19	Washington Redskins	T 28-28	1369.62	1298.42	63.49%	33.08%	-0.73	4-5
1961-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-35	1368.89	1586.18	17.87%	79.73%	-8.28	4-6
1961-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-38	1360.61	1594.51	23.52%	73.61%	-10.69	4-7
1961-12-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-31	1349.92	1477.66	26.44%	70.48%	-11.14	4-8
1961-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-34	1338.78	1268.90	52.53%	43.74%	-16.33	4-9
1961-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1533.86	1577.96	36.56%	59.88%	+11.73	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 16-15	1545.59	1505.61	48.24%	48.01%	+4.73	2-0
1961-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-49	1550.32	1522.38	57.66%	38.71%	-39.55	2-1
1961-10-08	Chicago Bears	L 17-31	1510.77	1423.79	65.52%	31.14%	-23.93	2-2
1961-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 14-13	1486.84	1441.26	60.08%	36.36%	+3.61	3-2
1961-10-22	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1490.45	1468.45	56.83%	39.52%	-9.65	3-3
1961-10-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-10	1480.80	1429.02	49.94%	46.32%	+19.40	4-3
1961-11-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 20-20	1500.20	1541.91	36.87%	59.55%	+0.54	4-3
1961-11-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-14	1500.74	1525.16	39.19%	57.17%	+31.20	5-3
1961-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-10	1531.94	1420.63	58.36%	38.04%	+19.61	6-3
1961-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1551.55	1646.25	40.29%	56.05%	-11.29	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-15	1540.26	1488.65	49.92%	46.34%	+4.57	7-4
1961-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 13-7	1544.83	1414.47	70.79%	26.16%	+6.36	8-4
1961-12-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1551.19	1597.34	47.12%	49.13%	-8.05	8-5
1961-09-17	Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1577.96	1533.86	59.88%	36.56%	-11.72	0-1
1961-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-10	1566.24	1539.63	57.47%	38.90%	+17.25	1-1
1961-10-01	Chicago Bears	W 24-0	1583.49	1435.60	72.77%	24.30%	+11.81	2-1
1961-10-08	Baltimore Colts	W 45-7	1595.30	1505.00	65.94%	30.73%	+18.83	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 49-17	1614.13	1614.10	42.56%	53.73%	+29.85	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-7	1643.98	1441.88	70.02%	26.88%	+13.61	5-1
1961-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-10	1657.59	1428.27	80.79%	16.91%	+7.08	6-1
1961-11-05	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-45	1664.67	1473.10	68.77%	28.05%	-32.84	6-2
1961-11-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1631.83	1499.57	61.21%	35.27%	+6.07	7-2
1961-11-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-17	1637.90	1444.22	77.52%	19.90%	+8.35	8-2
1961-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1646.25	1551.55	56.05%	40.29%	+11.30	9-2
1961-12-03	New York Giants	W 20-17	1657.55	1625.68	58.20%	38.19%	+6.56	10-2
1961-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-22	1664.11	1535.42	60.73%	35.74%	-5.94	10-3
1961-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1658.17	1431.15	72.86%	24.22%	+6.36	11-3
1961-09-17	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-27	1461.81	1499.17	37.45%	58.96%	-6.43	0-1
1961-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 17-21	1455.38	1424.22	58.10%	38.28%	-11.39	0-2
1961-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-14	1443.99	1469.52	50.09%	46.17%	+14.42	1-2
1961-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1458.41	1561.93	29.17%	67.59%	-17.15	1-3
1961-10-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-14	1441.26	1486.84	36.36%	60.08%	-3.61	1-4
1961-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 14-24	1437.65	1556.27	27.45%	69.41%	-8.63	1-5
1961-10-29	Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1429.02	1480.80	46.32%	49.94%	-19.40	1-6
1961-11-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-17	1409.62	1421.19	52.09%	44.19%	+16.35	2-6
1961-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-7	1425.97	1541.37	37.49%	58.92%	+18.25	3-6
1961-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-35	1444.22	1637.90	19.90%	77.52%	-8.36	3-7
1961-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-28	1435.86	1481.43	36.37%	60.08%	-7.22	3-8
1961-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-42	1428.64	1392.94	47.63%	48.62%	-21.52	3-9
1961-12-09	Baltimore Colts	W 34-17	1407.12	1527.00	36.89%	59.53%	+24.03	4-9
1961-12-17	Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1431.15	1658.17	24.22%	72.86%	-6.36	4-10
1961-09-17	Chicago Bears	W 37-13	1500.00	1441.07	61.87%	34.63%	+16.85	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1516.85	1376.86	62.24%	34.28%	-22.77	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 33-34	1494.08	1500.87	41.61%	54.70%	-4.12	1-2
1961-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-28	1489.96	1391.47	66.97%	29.76%	-34.56	1-3
1961-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-38	1455.40	1579.08	36.39%	60.05%	-13.52	1-4
1961-10-22	Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1441.88	1643.98	26.88%	70.02%	-13.61	1-5
1961-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1428.27	1657.59	16.91%	80.79%	-7.08	1-6
1961-11-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-31	1421.19	1409.62	44.19%	52.09%	-16.35	1-7
1961-11-12	Baltimore Colts	W 28-20	1404.84	1505.93	39.42%	56.94%	+15.79	2-7
1961-11-19	Detroit Lions	L 10-37	1420.63	1531.94	38.04%	58.36%	-19.61	2-8
1961-11-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-38	1401.02	1535.20	25.74%	71.22%	-8.08	2-9
1961-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	W 42-21	1392.94	1428.64	48.62%	47.63%	+21.53	3-9
1961-12-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1414.47	1544.83	26.16%	70.79%	-6.36	3-10
1961-12-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 35-52	1408.11	1494.20	31.24%	65.41%	-12.81	3-11
1961-09-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-21	1519.90	1528.19	52.56%	43.72%	-17.13	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1502.77	1478.08	46.05%	50.21%	+8.56	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-21	1511.33	1359.34	63.81%	32.77%	+5.64	2-1
1961-10-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-9	1516.97	1549.45	38.10%	58.29%	+22.11	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1539.08	1426.04	58.60%	37.80%	+17.19	4-1
1961-10-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-14	1556.27	1437.65	69.41%	27.45%	+8.63	5-1
1961-10-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-17	1564.90	1392.32	75.41%	21.85%	-7.33	5-2
1961-11-05	Washington Redskins	W 53-0	1557.57	1316.00	81.83%	15.96%	+11.45	6-2
1961-11-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-21	1569.02	1626.69	45.48%	50.79%	+20.61	7-2
1961-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-21	1589.63	1504.44	65.29%	31.35%	+14.28	8-2
1961-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1603.91	1616.29	40.84%	55.49%	+21.77	9-2
1961-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-20	1625.68	1657.55	38.19%	58.20%	-6.56	9-3
1961-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1619.12	1607.58	44.18%	52.09%	+10.24	10-3
1961-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 7-7	1629.36	1595.08	58.53%	37.86%	-0.49	10-3
1961-09-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-20	1574.92	1604.65	49.48%	46.77%	+12.21	1-0
1961-09-24	Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1587.13	1363.88	80.26%	17.39%	+4.54	2-0
1961-10-01	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-30	1591.67	1539.11	61.02%	35.45%	-10.34	2-1
1961-10-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1581.33	1455.10	70.31%	26.61%	+5.91	3-1
1961-10-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-7	1587.24	1527.33	51.11%	45.16%	+16.09	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 43-7	1603.33	1408.85	69.12%	27.73%	+16.53	5-1
1961-10-29	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1619.86	1318.98	80.20%	17.44%	+2.98	6-1
1961-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1622.84	1503.41	69.51%	27.36%	+3.85	7-1
1961-11-12	@ New York Giants	L 21-38	1626.69	1569.02	50.79%	45.48%	-20.61	7-2
1961-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1606.08	1596.38	43.92%	52.36%	-19.90	7-3
1961-11-26	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-13	1586.18	1368.89	79.73%	17.87%	+8.27	8-3
1961-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-24	1594.45	1497.15	56.41%	39.93%	+13.13	9-3
1961-12-10	New York Giants	L 24-28	1607.58	1619.12	52.09%	44.18%	-10.24	9-4
1961-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1597.34	1551.19	49.13%	47.12%	+8.05	10-4
1961-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1488.21	1366.73	59.75%	36.68%	-10.13	0-1
1961-09-24	New York Giants	L 14-17	1478.08	1502.77	50.21%	46.05%	-8.56	0-2
1961-10-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-24	1469.52	1443.99	46.17%	50.09%	-14.42	0-3
1961-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-21	1455.10	1581.33	26.61%	70.31%	-5.90	0-4
1961-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 20-0	1449.20	1346.42	67.50%	29.26%	+13.00	1-4
1961-10-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-30	1462.20	1584.25	36.61%	59.83%	-5.14	1-5
1961-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1457.06	1559.63	39.21%	57.15%	+17.71	2-5
1961-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-13	1474.77	1604.01	26.28%	70.66%	+13.76	3-5
1961-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-7	1488.53	1385.53	67.52%	29.23%	+15.91	4-5
1961-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 21-42	1504.44	1589.63	31.35%	65.29%	-14.27	4-6
1961-11-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-27	1490.17	1476.91	55.61%	40.72%	+6.98	5-6
1961-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-35	1497.15	1594.45	39.93%	56.41%	-13.12	5-7
1961-12-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-14	1484.03	1279.47	70.31%	26.61%	+10.57	6-7
1961-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-20	1494.60	1488.80	43.37%	52.91%	-19.19	6-8
1961-09-17	Washington Redskins	W 35-3	1526.03	1377.49	72.84%	24.23%	+13.60	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-30	1539.63	1566.24	38.90%	57.47%	-17.25	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 49-0	1522.38	1550.32	38.71%	57.66%	+39.55	2-1
1961-10-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-0	1561.93	1458.41	67.59%	29.17%	+17.15	3-1
1961-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-24	1579.08	1455.40	60.05%	36.39%	+13.52	4-1
1961-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-31	1592.60	1465.44	60.52%	35.94%	-32.97	4-2
1961-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1559.63	1457.06	57.15%	39.21%	-17.72	4-3
1961-11-05	Detroit Lions	T 20-20	1541.91	1500.20	59.55%	36.87%	-0.54	4-3
1961-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1541.37	1425.97	58.92%	37.49%	-18.24	4-4
1961-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 41-31	1523.13	1493.50	57.89%	38.49%	+12.07	5-4
1961-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-28	1535.20	1401.02	71.22%	25.74%	+8.08	6-4
1961-12-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-20	1543.28	1519.14	45.97%	50.29%	-7.86	6-5
1961-12-10	Green Bay Packers	W 22-21	1535.42	1664.11	35.74%	60.73%	+5.94	7-5
1961-12-16	Baltimore Colts	L 24-27	1541.36	1502.97	59.10%	37.31%	-10.02	7-6
1961-09-17	@ New York Giants	W 21-10	1528.19	1519.90	43.72%	52.56%	+17.14	1-0
1961-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1545.33	1592.44	36.16%	60.29%	-6.22	1-1
1961-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-27	1539.11	1591.67	35.45%	61.02%	+10.34	2-1
1961-10-08	New York Giants	L 9-24	1549.45	1516.97	58.29%	38.10%	-22.12	2-2
1961-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1527.33	1587.24	45.16%	51.11%	-16.08	2-3
1961-10-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1511.25	1333.41	67.09%	29.64%	+14.43	3-3
1961-10-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-21	1525.68	1589.39	44.62%	51.65%	-14.63	3-4
1961-11-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1511.05	1399.65	58.37%	38.02%	+14.11	4-4
1961-11-12	Detroit Lions	L 14-45	1525.16	1500.74	57.17%	39.19%	-31.20	4-5
1961-11-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 0-16	1493.96	1490.15	43.09%	53.19%	-17.05	4-6
1961-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-30	1476.91	1490.17	40.72%	55.61%	-6.99	4-7
1961-12-03	Washington Redskins	W 38-24	1469.92	1287.21	76.44%	20.89%	+7.74	5-7
1961-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-13	1477.66	1349.92	70.48%	26.44%	+11.14	6-7
1961-12-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-0	1488.80	1494.60	52.91%	43.37%	+19.19	7-7
1961-09-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-35	1377.49	1526.03	24.23%	72.84%	-13.61	0-1
1961-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-14	1363.88	1587.13	17.39%	80.26%	-4.54	0-2
1961-10-01	New York Giants	L 21-24	1359.34	1511.33	32.77%	63.81%	-5.64	0-3
1961-10-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-31	1353.70	1606.81	15.12%	82.76%	-7.28	0-4
1961-10-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-20	1346.42	1449.20	29.26%	67.50%	-13.01	0-5
1961-10-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-24	1333.41	1511.25	29.64%	67.09%	-14.43	0-6
1961-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1318.98	1619.86	17.44%	80.20%	-2.98	0-7
1961-11-05	@ New York Giants	L 0-53	1316.00	1557.57	15.96%	81.83%	-11.45	0-8
1961-11-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-17	1304.55	1590.25	18.70%	78.82%	-6.13	0-9
1961-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 28-28	1298.42	1369.62	33.08%	63.49%	+0.73	0-9
1961-11-26	Baltimore Colts	L 6-27	1299.15	1507.20	26.22%	70.71%	-11.94	0-10
1961-12-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-38	1287.21	1469.92	20.89%	76.44%	-7.74	0-11
1961-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-30	1279.47	1484.03	26.61%	70.31%	-10.57	0-12
1961-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-24	1268.90	1338.78	43.74%	52.53%	+16.33	1-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1961-12-31	New York Giants	W 37-0	1664.53	1628.87	60.60%	39.40%	+22.74	1-0
1961-12-31	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-37	1628.87	1664.53	39.40%	60.60%	-22.74	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1961-10-29	21.85%	Dallas Cowboys	1392.32	17	@ New York Giants	1564.90	16
2	1961-11-05	26.28%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1474.77	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1604.01	13
3	1961-11-05	28.05%	@ Baltimore Colts	1473.10	45	Green Bay Packers	1664.67	21
4	1961-10-08	29.76%	Dallas Cowboys	1391.47	28	@ Minnesota Vikings	1489.96	0
5	1961-10-08	31.14%	Chicago Bears	1423.79	31	@ Detroit Lions	1510.77	17
6	1961-09-24	34.28%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1376.86	21	Minnesota Vikings	1516.85	7
7	1961-10-01	35.45%	St. Louis Cardinals	1539.11	30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1591.67	27
8	1961-12-10	35.74%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1535.42	22	Green Bay Packers	1664.11	21
9	1961-10-22	35.94%	@ Chicago Bears	1465.44	31	San Francisco 49ers	1592.60	0
10	1961-09-17	36.56%	Detroit Lions	1533.86	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1577.96	13
11	1961-09-17	36.68%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1366.73	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1488.21	24
12	1961-12-10	36.73%	@ Chicago Bears	1484.07	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1605.20	14
13	1961-12-09	36.89%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1407.12	34	Baltimore Colts	1527.00	17
14	1961-12-16	37.31%	Baltimore Colts	1502.97	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1541.36	24
15	1961-11-12	37.49%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1425.97	17	San Francisco 49ers	1541.37	7
16	1961-10-08	38.10%	New York Giants	1516.97	24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1549.45	9
17	1961-09-23	38.28%	Chicago Bears	1424.22	21	@ Los Angeles Rams	1455.38	17
18	1961-10-01	38.71%	San Francisco 49ers	1522.38	49	@ Detroit Lions	1550.32	0
19	1961-11-12	39.19%	Detroit Lions	1500.74	45	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1525.16	14
20	1961-10-29	39.21%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1457.06	20	San Francisco 49ers	1559.63	10
21	1961-11-12	39.42%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1404.84	28	Baltimore Colts	1505.93	20
22	1961-10-22	39.52%	Baltimore Colts	1468.45	17	@ Detroit Lions	1490.45	14
23	1961-11-26	40.84%	New York Giants	1603.91	37	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1616.29	21
24	1961-10-15	42.56%	Green Bay Packers	1614.13	49	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1614.10	17
25	1961-09-17	43.72%	St. Louis Cardinals	1528.19	21	@ New York Giants	1519.90	10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1961-10-01	39.55	San Francisco 49ers	49	1522.38	38.71%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1550.32	57.66%
2	1961-10-08	34.57	Dallas Cowboys	28	1391.47	29.76%	@ Minnesota Vikings	0	1489.96	66.97%
3	1961-10-22	32.97	@ Chicago Bears	31	1465.44	35.94%	San Francisco 49ers	0	1592.60	60.52%
4	1961-11-05	32.84	@ Baltimore Colts	45	1473.10	28.05%	Green Bay Packers	21	1664.67	68.77%
5	1961-11-12	31.20	Detroit Lions	45	1500.74	39.19%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1525.16	57.17%
6	1961-10-15	29.85	Green Bay Packers	49	1614.13	42.56%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	17	1614.10	53.73%
7	1961-12-09	24.03	@ Los Angeles Rams	34	1407.12	36.89%	Baltimore Colts	17	1527.00	59.53%
8	1961-10-08	23.93	Chicago Bears	31	1423.79	31.14%	@ Detroit Lions	17	1510.77	65.52%
9	1961-09-24	22.77	@ Dallas Cowboys	21	1376.86	34.28%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1516.85	62.24%
10	1961-12-31 *	22.74	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1664.53	60.60%	New York Giants	0	1628.87	39.40%
11	1961-10-08	22.12	New York Giants	24	1516.97	38.10%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	9	1549.45	58.29%
12	1961-11-26	21.78	New York Giants	37	1603.91	40.84%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1616.29	55.49%
13	1961-12-03	21.53	@ Minnesota Vikings	42	1392.94	48.62%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1428.64	47.63%
14	1961-11-12	20.61	@ New York Giants	38	1569.02	45.48%	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1626.69	50.79%
15	1961-11-19	19.91	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1596.38	52.36%	Philadelphia Eagles	24	1606.08	43.92%
16	1961-11-19	19.61	Detroit Lions	37	1531.94	58.36%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1420.63	38.04%
17	1961-10-29	19.40	Detroit Lions	28	1480.80	49.94%	@ Los Angeles Rams	10	1429.02	46.32%
18	1961-12-17	19.19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	20	1488.80	52.91%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1494.60	43.37%
19	1961-10-08	18.83	@ Green Bay Packers	45	1595.30	65.94%	Baltimore Colts	7	1505.00	30.73%
20	1961-11-12	18.25	@ Los Angeles Rams	17	1425.97	37.49%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1541.37	58.92%
21	1961-10-15	17.72	@ Chicago Bears	24	1447.72	48.23%	Baltimore Colts	10	1486.17	48.02%
22	1961-10-29	17.72	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	20	1457.06	39.21%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1559.63	57.15%
23	1961-09-24	17.25	@ Green Bay Packers	30	1566.24	57.47%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1539.63	38.90%
24	1961-10-15	17.19	New York Giants	31	1539.08	58.60%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1426.04	37.80%
25	1961-10-08	17.15	@ San Francisco 49ers	35	1561.93	67.59%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1458.41	29.17%