Home / Leagues / NFL / 1960

1960 NFL Season

78 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

3rd Title

Last Title: 1949

Runner-Up

Green Bay Packers

5th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1944

Biggest Overachiever

Philadelphia Eagles

3.18 wins above expected

10 wins · 6.82 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Cowboys

3.64 wins below expected

0 wins · 4.14 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Philadelphia Eagles Division 10 2 0 .833 - 321 246 +75 6.82 +3.18
2 Cleveland Browns (1st) 8 3 1 .708 1.5 362 217 +145 7.82 +0.68
3 New York Giants 6 4 2 .583 3 271 261 +10 7.28 -0.28
4 St. Louis Cardinals 6 5 1 .542 3.5 288 230 +58 5.38 +1.12
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 5 6 1 .458 4.5 240 275 -35 5.72 -0.22
6 Washington Redskins 1 9 2 .167 8 178 309 -131 3.45 -1.45
7 Dallas Cowboys 0 11 1 .042 9.5 177 369 -192 4.14 -3.64
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Green Bay Packers Division 8 4 0 .667 - 332 209 +123 6.96 +1.04
2 Detroit Lions 7 5 0 .583 1 239 212 +27 5.46 +1.54
3 San Francisco 49ers 7 5 0 .583 1 208 205 +3 5.80 +1.20
4 Baltimore Colts 6 6 0 .500 2 288 234 +54 8.03 -2.03
5 Chicago Bears 5 6 1 .458 2.5 194 299 -105 6.54 -1.04
6 Los Angeles Rams 4 7 1 .375 3.5 265 297 -32 4.62 -0.12

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Green Bay Packers 13

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cleveland Browns (1st) East 1667 8.5 7.82 +0.68 74.26% 0 5 6 7 9 10 12
Green Bay Packers West 1639 8 6.96 +1.04 88.48% 0 4 5 7 8 9 12
Philadelphia Eagles East 1631 10 6.82 +3.18 99.59% 0 4 5 6 8 9 12
Detroit Lions West 1558 7 5.46 +1.54 93.54% 0 2 4 5 6 8 12
San Francisco 49ers West 1547 7 5.80 +1.20 90.18% 0 3 4 5 6 8 12
St. Louis Cardinals East 1545 6.5 5.38 +1.12 82.92% 0 2 4 5 6 8 11
New York Giants East 1536 7 7.28 -0.28 65.00% 0 4 6 7 8 9 12
Baltimore Colts West 1500 6 8.03 -2.03 24.39% 1 5 7 8 9 10 12
Pittsburgh Steelers East 1482 5.5 5.72 -0.22 56.19% 0 3 4 5 6 8 12
Los Angeles Rams West 1435 4.5 4.62 -0.12 58.92% 0 2 3 4 5 7 12
Chicago Bears West 1416 5.5 6.54 -1.04 35.83% 0 3 5 6 7 9 12
Washington Redskins East 1289 2 3.45 -1.45 36.96% 0 1 2 3 4 6 10
Dallas Cowboys East 1257 0.5 4.14 -3.64 0.86% 0 1 3 4 5 6 11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team (1st) Cowboys Giants Eagles Steelers Cardinals Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
New York Giants
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Colts Bears Lions Packers Rams 49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)
-
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-
-
Dallas Cowboys
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
New York Giants
-
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles
-
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
-
Pittsburgh Steelers
-
-
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
St. Louis Cardinals
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
-
Washington Redskins
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-

Within West

Team Colts Bears Lions Packers Rams 49ers
Baltimore Colts
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.3 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions
2-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)

West vs. Outside Teams

Team (1st) Cowboys Giants Eagles Steelers Cardinals Redskins
Baltimore Colts
-
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-
Detroit Lions
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
-
-
-
Green Bay Packers
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
Los Angeles Rams
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
San Francisco 49ers
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–61.28%1.92%0.64%0.64%0.64%5.13%
7–131.28%3.85%5.13%3.21%3.85%2.56%2.56%22.44%
14–201.92%5.13%5.13%5.13%1.92%1.28%20.51%
21–270.64%3.21%5.13%7.69%3.21%2.56%0.64%23.08%
28–343.85%1.92%3.21%3.85%1.28%0.64%14.74%
35–410.64%2.56%1.28%2.56%1.28%0.64%8.97%
42+0.64%2.56%0.64%0.64%0.64%5.13%
Total5.13%22.44%20.51%23.08%14.74%8.97%5.13%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 21.56 21.56 +0.00
SD 11.29 11.29 17.18
CV 0.52 0.52
Max 48 48 +42
Min 0 0 -42

Games Played: 78

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–278.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+16.67%16.67%
Total8.33%25.00%25.00%8.33%25.00%8.33%100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 24.00 19.50 +4.50
SD 12.81 11.60 19.80
CV 0.53 0.60
Max 45 35 +38
Min 3 0 -24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%16.67%
7–138.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–278.33%8.33%16.67%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–41
42+
Total25.00%8.33%33.33%16.67%16.67%100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 16.17 24.92 -8.75
SD 11.09 13.33 22.11
CV 0.69 0.54
Max 34 42 +21
Min 0 7 -42

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–1316.67%16.67%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%33.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
Total8.33%16.67%41.67%16.67%16.67%100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 30.17 18.08 +12.08
SD 12.76 9.89 16.07
CV 0.42 0.55
Max 48 34 +42
Min 10 0 -4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%16.67%16.67%50.00%
14–2025.00%25.00%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–41
42+
Total8.33%8.33%33.33%8.33%25.00%16.67%100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 14.75 30.75 -16.00
SD 8.59 11.02 14.65
CV 0.58 0.36
Max 31 48 +0
Min 7 12 -41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%25.00%41.67%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–278.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%16.67%
42+
Total16.67%16.67%33.33%25.00%8.33%100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.92 17.67 +2.25
SD 10.31 13.54 18.02
CV 0.52 0.77
Max 36 48 +36
Min 7 0 -21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%16.67%
14–208.33%8.33%16.67%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–4116.67%8.33%16.67%41.67%
42+
Total8.33%33.33%16.67%25.00%8.33%8.33%100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 27.67 17.42 +10.25
SD 11.50 10.69 15.79
CV 0.42 0.61
Max 41 38 +34
Min 10 0 -14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%16.67%8.33%33.33%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–278.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%33.33%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%
Total8.33%25.00%16.67%25.00%16.67%8.33%100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 22.08 24.75 -2.67
SD 12.76 12.14 13.36
CV 0.58 0.49
Max 48 43 +25
Min 7 3 -22

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–1316.67%16.67%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–278.33%16.67%8.33%33.33%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total8.33%8.33%41.67%16.67%16.67%8.33%100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 22.58 21.75 +0.83
SD 8.01 11.34 9.63
CV 0.35 0.52
Max 35 48 +21
Min 10 3 -14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–13
14–208.33%16.67%25.00%
21–2716.67%8.33%25.00%
28–3416.67%16.67%8.33%41.67%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total8.33%33.33%33.33%16.67%8.33%100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 26.75 20.50 +6.25
SD 6.58 10.99 11.19
CV 0.25 0.54
Max 38 41 +27
Min 17 6 -17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–278.33%8.33%25.00%41.67%
28–34
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total16.67%25.00%25.00%25.00%8.33%100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 20.00 22.92 -2.92
SD 8.66 8.96 13.87
CV 0.43 0.39
Max 35 38 +13
Min 7 10 -31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%16.67%
7–138.33%8.33%16.67%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–2716.67%8.33%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–41
42+
Total50.00%8.33%33.33%8.33%100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 17.33 17.08 +0.25
SD 10.88 10.24 16.96
CV 0.63 0.60
Max 34 41 +24
Min 0 7 -27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%33.33%
21–278.33%16.67%25.00%
28–34
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%16.67%
Total33.33%25.00%16.67%16.67%8.33%100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 24.00 19.17 +4.83
SD 12.48 9.46 17.97
CV 0.52 0.49
Max 44 35 +37
Min 6 7 -21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–616.67%16.67%
7–138.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%33.33%
14–2016.67%16.67%
21–278.33%16.67%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–41
42+
Total33.33%41.67%8.33%8.33%8.33%100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 14.83 25.75 -10.92
SD 9.55 8.66 12.30
CV 0.64 0.34
Max 28 44 +12
Min 0 14 -37

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.58 +0.4
Allowed 0.72 -0.5
Differential 0.78 +0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Philadelphia Eagles 10 6.82 +3.18
2 Detroit Lions 7 5.46 +1.54
3 San Francisco 49ers 7 5.80 +1.20
4 St. Louis Cardinals 6.5 5.38 +1.12
5 Green Bay Packers 8 6.96 +1.04

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Dallas Cowboys 0.5 4.14 -3.64
2 Baltimore Colts 6 8.03 -2.03
3 Washington Redskins 2 3.45 -1.45
4 Chicago Bears 5.5 6.54 -1.04
5 New York Giants 7 7.28 -0.28

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Philadelphia Eagles 9 Sep 30 – Dec 4 1 in 688
2 Detroit Lions 4 Nov 24 – Dec 18 1 in 26
3 Green Bay Packers 4 Oct 2 – Oct 30 1 in 19
4 San Francisco 49ers 3 Nov 20 – Dec 4 1 in 17
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 Nov 20 – Dec 11 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dallas Cowboys 10 Sep 24 – Nov 27 1 in 298
2 Baltimore Colts 4 Nov 27 – Dec 18 1 in 142
3 Washington Redskins 8 Oct 30 – Dec 18 1 in 17
4 Green Bay Packers 2 Nov 20 – Nov 24 1 in 14
5 Los Angeles Rams 4 Sep 23 – Oct 16 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team1234567
Cleveland Browns (1st)42.02%25.23%15.85%9.14%4.97%2.13%0.65%
New York Giants26.33%26.29%20.64%14.02%7.89%3.67%1.15%
Philadelphia Eagles18.87%22.95%22.35%16.85%11.05%5.80%2.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers6.77%12.24%17.25%21.14%19.92%14.65%8.03%
St. Louis Cardinals4.81%9.34%14.45%19.84%22.22%18.26%11.08%
Dallas Cowboys0.86%2.85%6.55%12.62%21.42%31.08%24.63%
Washington Redskins0.34%1.10%2.90%6.38%12.54%24.40%52.34%
Team123456
Baltimore Colts48.65%24.17%13.71%7.81%4.08%1.57%
Green Bay Packers21.97%25.32%20.72%15.45%10.83%5.71%
Chicago Bears14.67%20.80%21.92%19.02%14.60%8.98%
San Francisco 49ers7.57%13.56%18.22%21.21%21.40%18.03%
Detroit Lions5.07%10.79%15.93%20.98%24.65%22.58%
Los Angeles Rams2.07%5.35%9.50%15.53%24.43%43.12%
Team12345678910111213
Baltimore Colts26.96%20.70%13.82%11.12%8.00%6.21%4.48%3.28%2.32%1.58%0.89%0.52%0.12%
Cleveland Browns (1st)23.80%18.53%14.08%11.30%8.93%6.94%5.20%4.05%2.90%1.97%1.28%0.68%0.34%
New York Giants13.39%13.96%13.71%12.40%10.96%9.48%7.61%6.36%4.60%3.39%2.23%1.25%0.67%
Green Bay Packers10.37%11.67%12.49%12.23%10.74%10.20%8.38%7.23%6.14%4.62%3.22%2.09%0.63%
Philadelphia Eagles8.87%10.32%11.60%11.61%11.33%10.70%8.93%7.96%6.32%5.17%3.62%2.25%1.33%
Chicago Bears6.65%8.19%9.90%10.63%10.88%10.92%10.28%8.96%7.90%6.47%4.94%3.28%1.00%
San Francisco 49ers3.03%4.51%6.10%7.32%8.79%9.35%10.52%10.39%10.61%10.05%8.75%7.46%3.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers2.65%4.15%5.87%6.73%8.27%9.00%10.21%10.85%10.47%10.35%8.98%6.85%5.62%
Detroit Lions1.76%3.13%4.68%5.85%7.42%8.49%10.05%10.67%11.91%11.57%11.05%9.33%4.08%
St. Louis Cardinals1.65%2.89%4.30%5.39%6.79%7.94%9.29%10.71%10.97%11.69%10.89%9.28%8.22%
Los Angeles Rams0.53%1.25%2.01%3.03%4.18%5.27%7.25%8.51%10.87%12.25%15.41%18.43%11.01%
Dallas Cowboys0.25%0.54%1.07%1.76%2.58%3.84%5.22%7.25%9.26%12.69%15.67%19.00%20.87%
Washington Redskins0.09%0.17%0.37%0.64%1.13%1.66%2.57%3.79%5.73%8.19%13.07%19.60%43.00%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)42.02%57.98%
New York Giants26.33%73.67%
Philadelphia Eagles18.87%81.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers6.77%93.23%
St. Louis Cardinals4.81%95.19%
Dallas Cowboys0.86%99.14%
Washington Redskins0.34%99.66%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts48.65%51.35%
Green Bay Packers21.97%78.03%
Chicago Bears14.67%85.33%
San Francisco 49ers7.57%92.43%
Detroit Lions5.07%94.93%
Los Angeles Rams2.07%97.93%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeTieAway
+8.97%
Clear Edge
51.28%6.41%42.31%
Elo Value
Home Edge
22 Elo
0.046 points per Elo point
031.2660
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+2.50 points
Lean Home
-8+1.45+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds
Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.9
Open Race
124810
Champion Preseason Odds
12%
Philadelphia Eagles, 4th of 13
LongshotFavorite
Title Run Odds
Coin-flip
53.3%
Favored
050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.3 · As Expected: 1.3 to 1.79 · Elevated: 1.79 to 2.44 · High Variance: 2.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.08 · Close: 2.08 to 2.81 · Off Target: 2.81 to 3.67 · Well Off Target: 3.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.65 · As Expected: 0.65 to 1.56 · Several Outliers: 1.56 to 2.86 · Many Outliers: 2.86 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.82 · As Expected: 0.82 to 1.37 · More Than Expected: 1.37 to 2.19 · Far More Than Expected: 2.19 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.71 wins
As Expected
01.624
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.31
Close
02.445
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.15%
99.59%
Philadelphia Eagles
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.85%
0.86%
Dallas Cowboys
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 13
Several Outliers
01.36
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
2 of 2
More Than Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.81
Compressed
01.003
Interquartile Edge
67%
Tilted
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
91%
No Contest
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
19%
Mostly Decisive
0%16%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Routine
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.512
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Wide Gaps
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Volatile
01.002
Repeatability
0.13
Reshuffled
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Chalk Held
0%32%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.17 · Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.33 · Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.13
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.93
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.141
Within Noise
00.1660.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st) 42.02% 29.02%
Baltimore Colts 48.65% 17.87%
New York Giants 26.33% 13.72%
Philadelphia Eagles 18.87% 12.21%
Green Bay Packers 21.97% 11.94%
Chicago Bears 14.67% 3.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers 6.77% 3.02%
San Francisco 49ers 7.57% 2.98%
St. Louis Cardinals 4.81% 2.47%
Detroit Lions 5.07% 2.10%
Los Angeles Rams 2.07% 0.56%
Dallas Cowboys 0.86% 0.16%
Washington Redskins 0.34% 0.05%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore ColtsChicago BearsDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsSan Francisco 49ersCleveland Browns (1st)Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesPittsburgh SteelersSt. Louis CardinalsWashington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)72.0%20.63%81.6%5.37%69.0%2.25%54.7%9.47%82.1%0.90%68.0%3.41%
Dallas Cowboys18.0%0.36%34.8%0.13%12.7%0.06%10.3%0.22%20.0%0.01%18.2%0.08%
New York Giants54.3%12.81%67.0%4.23%51.2%1.40%35.4%5.80%66.1%0.55%51.8%1.55%
Philadelphia Eagles68.0%9.11%76.5%2.97%61.3%0.69%48.7%4.17%74.8%0.39%65.2%1.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers44.6%3.34%60.1%1.13%36.4%0.40%31.2%1.16%50.7%0.14%45.2%0.60%
St. Louis Cardinals52.9%2.28%68.3%0.77%50.2%0.25%35.8%1.06%67.6%0.07%48.7%0.38%
Washington Redskins12.4%0.12%34.7%0.07%10.0%0.02%5.1%0.08%16.7%0.01%18.8%0.03%
Baltimore Colts28.0%20.63%82.0%0.36%45.7%12.81%32.0%9.11%55.4%3.34%47.1%2.28%87.6%0.12%
Chicago Bears18.4%5.37%65.2%0.13%33.0%4.23%23.5%2.97%39.9%1.13%31.7%0.77%65.3%0.07%
Detroit Lions31.0%2.25%87.3%0.06%48.8%1.40%38.7%0.69%63.6%0.40%49.8%0.25%90.0%0.02%
Green Bay Packers45.3%9.47%89.7%0.22%64.6%5.80%51.3%4.17%68.8%1.16%64.2%1.06%94.9%0.08%
Los Angeles Rams17.9%0.90%80.0%0.01%33.9%0.55%25.2%0.39%49.3%0.14%32.4%0.07%83.3%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers32.0%3.41%81.8%0.08%48.2%1.55%34.8%1.53%54.8%0.60%51.3%0.38%81.2%0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles 53.33%
Green Bay Packers 46.67%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Green Bay PackersPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles53.3%100.00%
Green Bay Packers46.7%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 53.33% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Green Bay Packers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
53.33%
Green Bay Packers 46.67% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
46.67%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1960-09-25 Washington Redskins W 20-0 1583.27 1417.55 71.77% 22.08% +19.41 1-0
1960-10-02 Chicago Bears W 42-7 1602.68 1559.67 56.48% 35.77% +41.64 2-0
1960-10-09 @ Green Bay Packers L 21-35 1644.32 1518.03 59.30% 33.14% -42.26 2-1
1960-10-16 Los Angeles Rams W 31-17 1602.06 1388.67 76.68% 17.96% +13.11 3-1
1960-10-23 @ Detroit Lions L 17-30 1615.17 1389.62 71.47% 22.33% -48.45 3-2
1960-10-30 @ Dallas Cowboys W 45-7 1566.72 1380.49 66.93% 26.26% +31.95 4-2
1960-11-06 Green Bay Packers W 38-24 1598.67 1612.26 48.50% 43.44% +31.66 5-2
1960-11-13 @ Chicago Bears W 24-20 1630.33 1514.80 57.85% 34.49% +13.59 6-2
1960-11-27 San Francisco 49ers L 22-30 1643.92 1456.73 74.06% 20.14% -39.27 6-3
1960-12-04 Detroit Lions L 15-20 1604.65 1480.62 66.97% 26.23% -28.29 6-4
1960-12-11 @ Los Angeles Rams L 3-10 1576.36 1425.12 62.57% 30.15% -31.43 6-5
1960-12-18 @ San Francisco 49ers L 10-34 1544.93 1501.42 47.73% 44.21% -45.21 6-6
1960-09-25 @ Green Bay Packers W 17-14 1544.86 1499.38 48.01% 43.93% +14.81 1-0
1960-10-02 @ Baltimore Colts L 7-42 1559.67 1602.68 35.77% 56.48% -41.64 1-1
1960-10-09 Los Angeles Rams W 34-27 1518.03 1402.86 65.89% 27.18% +14.20 2-1
1960-10-16 San Francisco 49ers W 27-10 1532.23 1510.09 53.58% 38.51% +31.15 3-1
1960-10-23 @ Los Angeles Rams T 24-24 1563.38 1375.56 67.12% 26.09% -1.88 3-1
1960-10-30 @ San Francisco 49ers L 7-25 1561.50 1447.13 57.69% 34.64% -46.70 3-2
1960-11-13 Baltimore Colts L 20-24 1514.80 1630.33 34.49% 57.85% -13.59 3-3
1960-11-20 Detroit Lions W 28-7 1501.21 1472.77 54.46% 37.67% +33.90 4-3
1960-11-27 Dallas Cowboys W 17-7 1535.11 1271.41 81.18% 14.29% +8.73 5-3
1960-12-04 Green Bay Packers L 13-41 1543.84 1535.49 51.63% 40.39% -52.53 5-4
1960-12-11 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 0-42 1491.31 1602.20 27.64% 65.37% -35.38 5-5
1960-12-18 @ Detroit Lions L 0-36 1455.93 1518.06 33.35% 59.08% -39.45 5-6
1960-09-25 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 41-24 1535.85 1485.35 48.73% 43.22% +34.72 1-0
1960-10-02 Pittsburgh Steelers W 28-20 1570.57 1544.59 54.12% 38.00% +21.10 2-0
1960-10-16 @ Dallas Cowboys W 48-7 1591.67 1427.35 64.24% 28.65% +36.23 3-0
1960-10-23 Philadelphia Eagles L 29-31 1627.90 1508.64 66.39% 26.74% -17.75 3-1
1960-10-30 @ Washington Redskins W 31-10 1610.15 1435.09 65.57% 27.46% +24.85 4-1
1960-11-06 New York Giants L 13-17 1635.00 1568.78 59.62% 32.84% -22.71 4-2
1960-11-13 St. Louis Cardinals W 28-27 1612.29 1503.51 65.11% 27.88% +5.51 5-2
1960-11-20 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 10-14 1617.80 1464.26 62.87% 29.88% -23.86 5-3
1960-11-27 @ St. Louis Cardinals T 17-17 1593.94 1519.65 52.12% 39.92% -0.55 5-3
1960-12-04 Washington Redskins W 27-16 1593.39 1321.81 81.82% 13.77% +8.81 6-3
1960-12-11 Chicago Bears W 42-0 1602.20 1491.31 65.37% 27.64% +35.37 7-3
1960-12-18 @ New York Giants W 48-34 1637.57 1564.96 51.88% 40.15% +29.40 8-3
1960-09-24 Pittsburgh Steelers L 28-35 1500.00 1520.26 47.55% 44.39% -24.33 0-1
1960-09-30 Philadelphia Eagles L 25-27 1475.67 1450.63 53.99% 38.13% -14.64 0-2
1960-10-09 @ Washington Redskins L 14-26 1461.03 1398.14 50.50% 41.49% -33.68 0-3
1960-10-16 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-48 1427.35 1591.67 28.65% 64.24% -36.23 0-4
1960-10-23 @ St. Louis Cardinals L 10-12 1391.12 1415.01 38.28% 53.83% -10.63 0-5
1960-10-30 Baltimore Colts L 7-45 1380.49 1566.72 26.26% 66.93% -31.95 0-6
1960-11-06 Los Angeles Rams L 13-38 1348.54 1412.30 41.37% 50.62% -40.42 0-7
1960-11-13 @ Green Bay Packers L 7-41 1308.12 1580.60 13.72% 81.90% -15.41 0-8
1960-11-20 San Francisco 49ers L 14-26 1292.71 1435.43 31.15% 61.47% -21.30 0-9
1960-11-27 @ Chicago Bears L 7-17 1271.41 1535.11 14.29% 81.18% -8.72 0-10
1960-12-04 @ New York Giants T 31-31 1262.69 1552.52 12.64% 83.25% +3.24 0-10
1960-12-11 @ Detroit Lions L 14-23 1265.93 1508.92 15.72% 79.41% -9.15 0-11
1960-10-02 @ Green Bay Packers L 9-28 1467.19 1484.57 39.16% 52.91% -33.45 0-1
1960-10-09 San Francisco 49ers L 10-14 1433.74 1493.73 41.89% 50.09% -16.36 0-2
1960-10-16 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 10-28 1417.38 1480.88 33.18% 59.26% -27.76 0-3
1960-10-23 Baltimore Colts W 30-17 1389.62 1615.17 22.33% 71.47% +48.46 1-3
1960-10-30 @ Los Angeles Rams L 35-48 1438.08 1377.44 50.18% 41.80% -34.86 1-4
1960-11-06 @ San Francisco 49ers W 24-0 1403.22 1493.83 29.93% 62.81% +58.40 2-4
1960-11-13 Los Angeles Rams W 12-10 1461.62 1452.72 51.71% 40.31% +11.15 3-4
1960-11-20 @ Chicago Bears L 7-28 1472.77 1501.21 37.67% 54.46% -33.90 3-5
1960-11-24 Green Bay Packers W 23-10 1438.87 1577.24 31.67% 60.90% +41.75 4-5
1960-12-04 @ Baltimore Colts W 20-15 1480.62 1604.65 26.23% 66.97% +28.30 5-5
1960-12-11 Dallas Cowboys W 23-14 1508.92 1265.93 79.41% 15.72% +9.14 6-5
1960-12-18 Chicago Bears W 36-0 1518.06 1455.93 59.08% 33.35% +39.45 7-5
1960-09-25 Chicago Bears L 14-17 1499.38 1544.86 43.93% 48.01% -14.81 0-1
1960-10-02 Detroit Lions W 28-9 1484.57 1467.19 52.91% 39.16% +33.46 1-1
1960-10-09 Baltimore Colts W 35-21 1518.03 1644.32 33.14% 59.30% +42.26 2-1
1960-10-23 San Francisco 49ers W 41-14 1560.29 1478.94 61.62% 31.02% +31.81 3-1
1960-10-30 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 19-13 1592.10 1534.14 49.80% 42.17% +20.16 4-1
1960-11-06 @ Baltimore Colts L 24-38 1612.26 1598.67 43.44% 48.50% -31.66 4-2
1960-11-13 Dallas Cowboys W 41-7 1580.60 1308.12 81.90% 13.72% +15.41 5-2
1960-11-20 Los Angeles Rams L 31-33 1596.01 1441.56 70.52% 23.15% -18.77 5-3
1960-11-24 @ Detroit Lions L 10-23 1577.24 1438.87 60.90% 31.67% -41.75 5-4
1960-12-04 @ Chicago Bears W 41-13 1535.49 1543.84 40.39% 51.63% +52.53 6-4
1960-12-10 @ San Francisco 49ers W 13-0 1588.02 1531.21 49.63% 42.33% +29.78 7-4
1960-12-17 @ Los Angeles Rams W 35-21 1617.80 1456.54 63.85% 29.00% +21.43 8-4
1960-09-23 St. Louis Cardinals L 21-43 1464.17 1441.21 53.70% 38.40% -48.28 0-1
1960-10-02 @ San Francisco 49ers L 9-13 1415.89 1480.71 33.01% 59.44% -13.03 0-2
1960-10-09 @ Chicago Bears L 27-34 1402.86 1518.03 27.18% 65.89% -14.19 0-3
1960-10-16 @ Baltimore Colts L 17-31 1388.67 1602.06 17.96% 76.68% -13.11 0-4
1960-10-23 Chicago Bears T 24-24 1375.56 1563.38 26.09% 67.12% +1.88 0-4
1960-10-30 Detroit Lions W 48-35 1377.44 1438.08 41.80% 50.18% +34.86 1-4
1960-11-06 @ Dallas Cowboys W 38-13 1412.30 1348.54 50.62% 41.37% +40.42 2-4
1960-11-13 @ Detroit Lions L 10-12 1452.72 1461.62 40.31% 51.71% -11.16 2-5
1960-11-20 @ Green Bay Packers W 33-31 1441.56 1596.01 23.15% 70.52% +18.77 3-5
1960-12-04 San Francisco 49ers L 7-23 1460.33 1496.00 45.33% 46.60% -35.21 3-6
1960-12-11 Baltimore Colts W 10-3 1425.12 1576.36 30.15% 62.57% +31.42 4-6
1960-12-17 Green Bay Packers L 21-35 1456.54 1617.80 29.00% 63.85% -21.42 4-7
1960-09-25 @ San Francisco 49ers W 21-19 1548.48 1492.42 49.52% 42.44% +11.71 1-0
1960-10-02 @ St. Louis Cardinals W 35-14 1560.19 1489.50 51.61% 40.41% +36.24 2-0
1960-10-09 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 19-17 1596.43 1523.49 51.93% 40.10% +11.10 3-0
1960-10-16 Washington Redskins T 24-24 1607.53 1431.83 72.85% 21.16% -2.38 3-0
1960-10-30 St. Louis Cardinals L 13-20 1605.15 1425.63 73.25% 20.82% -36.37 3-1
1960-11-06 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) W 17-13 1568.78 1635.00 32.84% 59.62% +22.71 4-1
1960-11-13 Pittsburgh Steelers W 27-24 1591.49 1473.45 66.25% 26.87% +9.18 5-1
1960-11-20 Philadelphia Eagles L 10-17 1600.67 1576.12 53.92% 38.19% -27.34 5-2
1960-11-27 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 23-31 1573.33 1603.47 37.45% 54.70% -20.81 5-3
1960-12-04 Dallas Cowboys T 31-31 1552.52 1262.69 83.25% 12.64% -3.24 5-3
1960-12-11 @ Washington Redskins W 17-3 1549.28 1313.01 72.64% 21.34% +15.68 6-3
1960-12-18 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 34-48 1564.96 1637.57 40.15% 51.88% -29.41 6-4
1960-09-25 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 24-41 1485.35 1535.85 43.22% 48.73% -34.72 0-1
1960-09-30 @ Dallas Cowboys W 27-25 1450.63 1475.67 38.13% 53.99% +14.63 1-1
1960-10-09 St. Louis Cardinals W 31-27 1465.26 1453.26 52.15% 39.89% +15.62 2-1
1960-10-16 Detroit Lions W 28-10 1480.88 1417.38 59.26% 33.18% +27.76 3-1
1960-10-23 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) W 31-29 1508.64 1627.90 26.74% 66.39% +17.75 4-1
1960-11-06 Pittsburgh Steelers W 34-7 1526.39 1513.98 52.21% 39.83% +40.53 5-1
1960-11-13 Washington Redskins W 19-13 1566.92 1368.73 75.18% 19.20% +9.20 6-1
1960-11-20 @ New York Giants W 17-10 1576.12 1600.67 38.19% 53.92% +27.35 7-1
1960-11-27 New York Giants W 31-23 1603.47 1573.33 54.70% 37.45% +20.80 8-1
1960-12-04 @ St. Louis Cardinals W 20-6 1624.27 1520.20 56.28% 35.95% +26.47 9-1
1960-12-11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 21-27 1650.74 1504.19 61.96% 30.70% -28.83 9-2
1960-12-18 @ Washington Redskins W 38-28 1621.91 1297.33 81.05% 14.40% +8.79 10-2
1960-09-24 @ Dallas Cowboys W 35-28 1520.26 1500.00 44.39% 47.55% +24.33 1-0
1960-10-02 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 20-28 1544.59 1570.57 38.00% 54.12% -21.10 1-1
1960-10-09 New York Giants L 17-19 1523.49 1596.43 40.10% 51.93% -11.10 1-2
1960-10-16 St. Louis Cardinals W 27-14 1512.39 1437.64 60.75% 31.80% +22.63 2-2
1960-10-23 @ Washington Redskins T 27-27 1535.02 1434.21 55.83% 36.38% -0.88 2-2
1960-10-30 Green Bay Packers L 13-19 1534.14 1592.10 42.17% 49.80% -20.16 2-3
1960-11-06 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 7-34 1513.98 1526.39 39.83% 52.21% -40.53 2-4
1960-11-13 @ New York Giants L 24-27 1473.45 1591.49 26.87% 66.25% -9.19 2-5
1960-11-20 Cleveland Browns (1st) W 14-10 1464.26 1617.80 29.88% 62.87% +23.86 3-5
1960-11-27 Washington Redskins W 22-10 1488.12 1337.88 70.04% 23.56% +16.07 4-5
1960-12-11 Philadelphia Eagles W 27-21 1504.19 1650.74 30.70% 61.96% +28.83 5-5
1960-12-18 @ St. Louis Cardinals L 7-38 1533.02 1493.73 47.12% 44.81% -50.78 5-6
1960-09-25 New York Giants L 19-21 1492.42 1548.48 42.44% 49.52% -11.71 0-1
1960-10-02 Los Angeles Rams W 13-9 1480.71 1415.89 59.44% 33.01% +13.02 1-1
1960-10-09 @ Detroit Lions W 14-10 1493.73 1433.74 50.09% 41.89% +16.36 2-1
1960-10-16 @ Chicago Bears L 10-27 1510.09 1532.23 38.51% 53.58% -31.15 2-2
1960-10-23 @ Green Bay Packers L 14-41 1478.94 1560.29 31.02% 61.62% -31.81 2-3
1960-10-30 Chicago Bears W 25-7 1447.13 1561.50 34.64% 57.69% +46.70 3-3
1960-11-06 Detroit Lions L 0-24 1493.83 1403.22 62.81% 29.93% -58.40 3-4
1960-11-20 @ Dallas Cowboys W 26-14 1435.43 1292.71 61.47% 31.15% +21.30 4-4
1960-11-27 @ Baltimore Colts W 30-22 1456.73 1643.92 20.14% 74.06% +39.27 5-4
1960-12-04 @ Los Angeles Rams W 23-7 1496.00 1460.33 46.60% 45.33% +35.21 6-4
1960-12-10 Green Bay Packers L 0-13 1531.21 1588.02 42.33% 49.63% -29.79 6-5
1960-12-18 Baltimore Colts W 34-10 1501.42 1544.93 44.21% 47.73% +45.22 7-5
1960-09-23 @ Los Angeles Rams W 43-21 1441.21 1464.17 38.40% 53.70% +48.29 1-0
1960-10-02 New York Giants L 14-35 1489.50 1560.19 40.41% 51.61% -36.24 1-1
1960-10-09 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 27-31 1453.26 1465.26 39.89% 52.15% -15.62 1-2
1960-10-16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 14-27 1437.64 1512.39 31.80% 60.75% -22.63 1-3
1960-10-23 Dallas Cowboys W 12-10 1415.01 1391.12 53.83% 38.28% +10.62 2-3
1960-10-30 @ New York Giants W 20-13 1425.63 1605.15 20.82% 73.25% +36.37 3-3
1960-11-06 Washington Redskins W 44-7 1462.00 1410.24 57.68% 34.65% +41.51 4-3
1960-11-13 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 27-28 1503.51 1612.29 27.88% 65.11% -5.50 4-4
1960-11-20 @ Washington Redskins W 26-14 1498.01 1359.53 60.91% 31.66% +21.64 5-4
1960-11-27 Cleveland Browns (1st) T 17-17 1519.65 1593.94 39.92% 52.12% +0.55 5-4
1960-12-04 Philadelphia Eagles L 6-20 1520.20 1624.27 35.95% 56.28% -26.47 5-5
1960-12-18 Pittsburgh Steelers W 38-7 1493.73 1533.02 44.81% 47.12% +50.79 6-5
1960-09-25 @ Baltimore Colts L 0-20 1417.55 1583.27 22.08% 71.77% -19.41 0-1
1960-10-09 Dallas Cowboys W 26-14 1398.14 1461.03 41.49% 50.50% +33.69 1-1
1960-10-16 @ New York Giants T 24-24 1431.83 1607.53 21.16% 72.85% +2.38 1-1
1960-10-23 Pittsburgh Steelers T 27-27 1434.21 1535.02 36.38% 55.83% +0.88 1-1
1960-10-30 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 10-31 1435.09 1610.15 27.46% 65.57% -24.85 1-2
1960-11-06 @ St. Louis Cardinals L 7-44 1410.24 1462.00 34.65% 57.68% -41.51 1-3
1960-11-13 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 13-19 1368.73 1566.92 19.20% 75.18% -9.20 1-4
1960-11-20 St. Louis Cardinals L 14-26 1359.53 1498.01 31.66% 60.91% -21.65 1-5
1960-11-27 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 10-22 1337.88 1488.12 23.56% 70.04% -16.07 1-6
1960-12-04 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 16-27 1321.81 1593.39 13.77% 81.82% -8.80 1-7
1960-12-11 New York Giants L 3-17 1313.01 1549.28 21.34% 72.64% -15.68 1-8
1960-12-18 Philadelphia Eagles L 28-38 1297.33 1621.91 14.40% 81.05% -8.80 1-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1960-12-26 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 13-17 1639.23 1630.70 46.73% 53.27% -16.67 0-1
1960-12-26 Green Bay Packers W 17-13 1630.70 1639.23 53.27% 46.73% +16.67 1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1960-11-27 20.14% San Francisco 49ers 1456.73 30 @ Baltimore Colts 1643.92 22
2 1960-10-30 20.82% St. Louis Cardinals 1425.63 20 @ New York Giants 1605.15 13
3 1960-10-23 22.33% @ Detroit Lions 1389.62 30 Baltimore Colts 1615.17 17
4 1960-11-20 23.15% Los Angeles Rams 1441.56 33 @ Green Bay Packers 1596.01 31
5 1960-12-04 26.23% Detroit Lions 1480.62 20 @ Baltimore Colts 1604.65 15
6 1960-10-23 26.74% Philadelphia Eagles 1508.64 31 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 1627.90 29
7 1960-11-20 29.88% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1464.26 14 Cleveland Browns (1st) 1617.80 10
8 1960-11-06 29.93% Detroit Lions 1403.22 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 1493.83 0
9 1960-12-11 30.15% @ Los Angeles Rams 1425.12 10 Baltimore Colts 1576.36 3
10 1960-12-11 30.70% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1504.19 27 Philadelphia Eagles 1650.74 21
11 1960-11-24 31.67% @ Detroit Lions 1438.87 23 Green Bay Packers 1577.24 10
12 1960-11-06 32.84% New York Giants 1568.78 17 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 1635.00 13
13 1960-10-09 33.14% @ Green Bay Packers 1518.03 35 Baltimore Colts 1644.32 21
14 1960-10-30 34.64% @ San Francisco 49ers 1447.13 25 Chicago Bears 1561.50 7
15 1960-09-30 38.13% Philadelphia Eagles 1450.63 27 @ Dallas Cowboys 1475.67 25
16 1960-11-20 38.19% Philadelphia Eagles 1576.12 17 @ New York Giants 1600.67 10
17 1960-09-23 38.40% St. Louis Cardinals 1441.21 43 @ Los Angeles Rams 1464.17 21
18 1960-12-04 40.39% Green Bay Packers 1535.49 41 @ Chicago Bears 1543.84 13
19 1960-10-09 41.49% @ Washington Redskins 1398.14 26 Dallas Cowboys 1461.03 14
20 1960-10-30 41.80% @ Los Angeles Rams 1377.44 48 Detroit Lions 1438.08 35
21 1960-12-18 44.21% @ San Francisco 49ers 1501.42 34 Baltimore Colts 1544.93 10
22 1960-09-24 44.39% Pittsburgh Steelers 1520.26 35 @ Dallas Cowboys 1500.00 28
23 1960-12-18 44.81% @ St. Louis Cardinals 1493.73 38 Pittsburgh Steelers 1533.02 7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-11-06 58.40 Detroit Lions 24 1403.22 29.93% @ San Francisco 49ers 0 1493.83 62.81%
2 1960-12-04 52.53 Green Bay Packers 41 1535.49 40.39% @ Chicago Bears 13 1543.84 51.63%
3 1960-12-18 50.79 @ St. Louis Cardinals 38 1493.73 44.81% Pittsburgh Steelers 7 1533.02 47.12%
4 1960-10-23 48.46 @ Detroit Lions 30 1389.62 22.33% Baltimore Colts 17 1615.17 71.47%
5 1960-09-23 48.29 St. Louis Cardinals 43 1441.21 38.40% @ Los Angeles Rams 21 1464.17 53.70%
6 1960-10-30 46.70 @ San Francisco 49ers 25 1447.13 34.64% Chicago Bears 7 1561.50 57.69%
7 1960-12-18 45.22 @ San Francisco 49ers 34 1501.42 44.21% Baltimore Colts 10 1544.93 47.73%
8 1960-10-09 42.26 @ Green Bay Packers 35 1518.03 33.14% Baltimore Colts 21 1644.32 59.30%
9 1960-11-24 41.75 @ Detroit Lions 23 1438.87 31.67% Green Bay Packers 10 1577.24 60.90%
10 1960-10-02 41.64 @ Baltimore Colts 42 1602.68 56.48% Chicago Bears 7 1559.67 35.77%
11 1960-11-06 41.51 @ St. Louis Cardinals 44 1462.00 57.68% Washington Redskins 7 1410.24 34.65%
12 1960-11-06 40.53 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34 1526.39 52.21% Pittsburgh Steelers 7 1513.98 39.83%
13 1960-11-06 40.42 Los Angeles Rams 38 1412.30 50.62% @ Dallas Cowboys 13 1348.54 41.37%
14 1960-12-18 39.45 @ Detroit Lions 36 1518.06 59.08% Chicago Bears 0 1455.93 33.35%
15 1960-11-27 39.27 San Francisco 49ers 30 1456.73 20.14% @ Baltimore Colts 22 1643.92 74.06%
16 1960-10-30 36.37 St. Louis Cardinals 20 1425.63 20.82% @ New York Giants 13 1605.15 73.25%
17 1960-10-02 36.24 New York Giants 35 1560.19 51.61% @ St. Louis Cardinals 14 1489.50 40.41%
18 1960-10-16 36.23 Cleveland Browns (1st) 48 1591.67 64.24% @ Dallas Cowboys 7 1427.35 28.65%
19 1960-12-11 35.38 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 42 1602.20 65.37% Chicago Bears 0 1491.31 27.64%
20 1960-12-04 35.21 San Francisco 49ers 23 1496.00 46.60% @ Los Angeles Rams 7 1460.33 45.33%
21 1960-10-30 34.86 @ Los Angeles Rams 48 1377.44 41.80% Detroit Lions 35 1438.08 50.18%
22 1960-09-25 34.72 Cleveland Browns (1st) 41 1535.85 48.73% @ Philadelphia Eagles 24 1485.35 43.22%
23 1960-11-20 33.90 @ Chicago Bears 28 1501.21 54.46% Detroit Lions 7 1472.77 37.67%
24 1960-10-09 33.69 @ Washington Redskins 26 1398.14 41.49% Dallas Cowboys 14 1461.03 50.50%
25 1960-10-02 33.46 @ Green Bay Packers 28 1484.57 52.91% Detroit Lions 9 1467.19 39.16%