1959 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Baltimore Colts

2nd Title

Last Title: 1958

Runner-Up

New York Giants

11th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1958

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

2.80 wins above expected

7 wins · 4.20 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Los Angeles Rams

3.61 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.61 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	10	2	0	.833	-	284	170	+114	7.62	+2.38
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	5	0	.583	3	270	214	+56	7.29	-0.29
3	Philadelphia Eagles	7	5	0	.583	3	268	278	-10	5.69	+1.31
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	1	.542	3.5	257	216	+41	6.50	0.00
5	Washington Redskins	3	9	0	.250	7	185	350	-165	4.30	-1.30
6	Chicago Cardinals	2	10	0	.167	8	234	324	-90	4.33	-2.33

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	9	3	0	.750	-	374	251	+123	8.33	+0.67
2	Chicago Bears	8	4	0	.667	1	252	196	+56	6.64	+1.36
3	Green Bay Packers	7	5	0	.583	2	248	246	+2	4.20	+2.80
4	San Francisco 49ers	7	5	0	.583	2	255	237	+18	6.77	+0.23
5	Detroit Lions	3	8	1	.292	5.5	203	275	-72	4.73	-1.23
6	Los Angeles Rams	2	10	0	.167	7	242	315	-73	5.61	-3.61

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Baltimore Colts 31

New York Giants 16

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Colts	West	1696	9	8.33	+0.67	78.60%	1	6	7	8	9	11	12
New York Giants	East	1661	10	7.62	+2.38	97.55%	0	5	6	8	9	10	12
Chicago Bears	West	1621	8	6.64	+1.36	88.63%	0	4	5	7	8	9	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1589	7	7.29	-0.29	56.59%	0	4	6	7	8	10	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1551	6.5	6.50	0.00	52.21%	0	4	5	6	8	9	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1501	7	4.20	+2.80	97.99%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
San Francisco 49ers	West	1483	7	6.77	+0.23	68.76%	0	4	6	7	8	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1468	7	5.69	+1.31	87.28%	0	3	4	6	7	8	12
Detroit Lions	West	1415	3.5	4.73	-1.23	24.92%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1384	2	5.61	-3.61	3.07%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Chicago Cardinals	East	1318	2	4.33	-2.33	14.29%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Washington Redskins	East	1311	3	4.30	-1.30	33.66%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	-	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Philadelphia Eagles	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	-	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	2.08%	1.39%	1.39%	1.39%	—	0.69%	6.94%
7–13	2.08%	1.39%	2.78%	2.78%	4.86%	—	0.69%	14.58%
14–20	1.39%	2.78%	1.39%	9.72%	3.47%	2.08%	1.39%	22.22%
21–27	1.39%	2.78%	9.72%	6.94%	4.86%	1.39%	3.47%	30.56%
28–34	1.39%	4.86%	3.47%	4.86%	—	0.69%	—	15.28%
35–41	—	—	2.08%	1.39%	0.69%	—	—	4.17%
42+	0.69%	0.69%	1.39%	3.47%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.94%	14.58%	22.22%	30.56%	15.28%	4.17%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.33	21.33	+0.00
SD	10.95	10.95	16.92
CV	0.51	0.51	—
Max	49	49	+41
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	58.33%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.17	20.92	+10.25
SD	8.65	8.69	11.42
CV	0.28	0.42	—
Max	45	38	+31
Min	21	7	-7

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	16.33	+4.67
SD	8.24	7.18	10.12
CV	0.39	0.44	—
Max	31	28	+24
Min	6	3	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	27.00	-7.50
SD	14.53	9.28	16.76
CV	0.74	0.34	—
Max	49	45	+28
Min	3	9	-27

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	41.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	41.67%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.50	17.83	+4.67
SD	11.41	12.23	18.66
CV	0.51	0.69	—
Max	38	48	+27
Min	6	7	-41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	41.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	8.33%	41.67%	33.33%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.92	22.92	-6.00
SD	10.29	8.45	14.09
CV	0.61	0.37	—
Max	45	34	+24
Min	7	7	-26

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	41.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	8.33%	41.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.67	20.50	+0.17
SD	10.82	12.85	18.75
CV	0.52	0.63	—
Max	38	45	+22
Min	3	0	-39

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	—	8.33%	50.00%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.17	26.25	-6.08
SD	10.96	10.38	17.58
CV	0.54	0.40	—
Max	45	45	+39
Min	0	6	-34

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.67	14.17	+9.50
SD	12.55	12.55	17.38
CV	0.53	0.89	—
Max	48	49	+41
Min	9	3	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	—	25.00%	50.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.33	23.17	-0.83
SD	13.59	4.75	17.07
CV	0.61	0.20	—
Max	49	31	+28
Min	0	14	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.42	18.00	+3.42
SD	7.23	12.38	14.04
CV	0.34	0.69	—
Max	35	45	+31
Min	10	0	-21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.25	19.75	+1.50
SD	9.40	12.76	19.97
CV	0.44	0.65	—
Max	34	45	+34
Min	3	0	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	—	16.67%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.42	29.17	-13.75
SD	8.37	10.43	13.67
CV	0.54	0.36	—
Max	27	49	+9
Min	0	14	-31

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.50	+0.4
Allowed	0.70	-0.4
Differential	0.82	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	7	4.20	+2.80
2	New York Giants	10	7.62	+2.38
3	Chicago Bears	8	6.64	+1.36
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	5.69	+1.31
5	Baltimore Colts	9	8.33	+0.67

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Rams	2	5.61	-3.61
2	Chicago Cardinals	2	4.33	-2.33
3	Washington Redskins	3	4.30	-1.30
4	Detroit Lions	3.5	4.73	-1.23
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	7.29	-0.29

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Bears	7	Nov 1 – Dec 13	1 in 47
2	Green Bay Packers	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 34
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 15 – Nov 29	1 in 22
4	New York Giants	5	Oct 11 – Nov 8	1 in 18
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Oct 18 – Nov 15	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	8	Oct 25 – Dec 12	1 in 233
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 21
3	Baltimore Colts	2	Nov 1 – Nov 8	1 in 11
4	Chicago Cardinals	6	Nov 8 – Dec 13	1 in 11
5	Detroit Lions	4	Sep 27 – Oct 18	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
New York Giants	39.67%	26.95%	17.61%	9.80%	4.47%	1.51%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.13%	27.09%	19.60%	12.67%	6.69%	2.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.86%	22.16%	23.59%	19.05%	12.21%	6.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.70%	14.33%	20.15%	23.94%	19.70%	13.18%
Chicago Cardinals	1.97%	4.81%	9.50%	17.14%	28.01%	38.57%
Washington Redskins	1.67%	4.66%	9.55%	17.40%	28.93%	37.79%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Baltimore Colts	56.05%	23.43%	11.82%	5.67%	2.30%	0.72%
San Francisco 49ers	17.61%	25.72%	23.12%	17.12%	11.04%	5.40%
Chicago Bears	16.67%	25.77%	23.70%	17.74%	10.93%	5.19%
Los Angeles Rams	5.84%	13.94%	20.08%	23.91%	21.30%	14.93%
Detroit Lions	2.56%	6.92%	12.61%	20.11%	28.44%	29.37%
Green Bay Packers	1.29%	4.22%	8.66%	15.44%	25.99%	44.39%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Baltimore Colts	35.19%	21.34%	13.68%	9.83%	6.92%	4.87%	3.37%	2.15%	1.28%	0.80%	0.42%	0.14%
New York Giants	18.24%	20.18%	14.74%	13.20%	9.75%	8.17%	5.60%	4.21%	2.65%	1.82%	0.98%	0.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	15.44%	15.28%	14.67%	12.68%	10.84%	9.08%	7.18%	5.64%	3.96%	2.74%	1.63%	0.85%
San Francisco 49ers	9.16%	10.25%	12.45%	12.33%	12.01%	10.75%	9.48%	7.82%	6.28%	4.62%	3.15%	1.70%
Chicago Bears	7.86%	9.83%	12.30%	12.70%	12.00%	11.33%	9.67%	8.22%	6.37%	4.84%	3.11%	1.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.46%	9.75%	10.84%	11.85%	11.59%	11.68%	9.96%	9.13%	6.88%	5.73%	3.88%	2.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.99%	5.06%	6.85%	7.91%	9.75%	10.52%	11.34%	11.67%	10.64%	9.61%	7.88%	5.80%
Los Angeles Rams	2.54%	3.76%	6.43%	7.43%	9.73%	10.36%	11.75%	11.90%	11.29%	10.28%	8.51%	6.02%
Detroit Lions	0.85%	1.60%	2.81%	4.07%	5.66%	7.10%	9.54%	10.83%	13.44%	14.54%	14.85%	14.70%
Chicago Cardinals	0.47%	1.15%	1.94%	2.82%	4.04%	5.60%	7.44%	9.72%	12.39%	15.00%	17.91%	21.52%
Washington Redskins	0.41%	0.95%	1.73%	2.68%	3.99%	5.52%	7.60%	9.78%	12.75%	15.52%	17.96%	21.11%
Green Bay Packers	0.40%	0.84%	1.56%	2.50%	3.72%	5.03%	7.06%	8.94%	12.06%	14.51%	19.71%	23.67%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	39.67%	60.33%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.13%	68.87%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.86%	83.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.70%	91.30%
Chicago Cardinals	1.97%	98.03%
Washington Redskins	1.67%	98.33%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Baltimore Colts	56.05%	43.95%
San Francisco 49ers	17.61%	82.39%
Chicago Bears	16.67%	83.33%
Los Angeles Rams	5.84%	94.16%
Detroit Lions	2.56%	97.45%
Green Bay Packers	1.29%	98.71%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+6.94%

Clear Edge

52.78%1.39%45.83%

Elo Value

Home Edge

19 Elo

0.051 points per Elo point

024.1750

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.92 points

Lean Home

-8+1.24+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.5

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

38%

Baltimore Colts, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

58.3%

Favored

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.31 · As Expected: 1.31 to 1.8 · Elevated: 1.8 to 2.45 · High Variance: 2.45 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.91 · Close: 1.91 to 2.59 · Off Target: 2.59 to 3.38 · Well Off Target: 3.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.78 · As Expected: 0.78 to 1.3 · More Than Expected: 1.3 to 2.09 · Far More Than Expected: 2.09 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.81 wins

Elevated

01.634

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

02.255

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

97.99%

Green Bay Packers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.07%

Los Angeles Rams

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Many Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.81

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

75%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

90%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

12%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

38%

Routine

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Hard to Predict

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.29

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.24

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

0.48

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

As Expected

0%35%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Shaky Favorites

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.17 · Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.35 · Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.80

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.93

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.088

Within Noise

00.1740.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	56.05%	37.80%
New York Giants	39.67%	20.39%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.13%	13.34%
Chicago Bears	16.67%	9.46%
San Francisco 49ers	17.61%	6.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.86%	6.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.70%	2.29%
Los Angeles Rams	5.84%	1.54%
Detroit Lions	2.56%	0.78%
Green Bay Packers	1.29%	0.54%
Chicago Cardinals	1.97%	0.33%
Washington Redskins	1.67%	0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	9.8%1.13%	18.8%0.22%	51.7%0.03%	23.8%0.04%	32.0%0.13%	26.2%0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.0%16.39%	42.6%5.88%	69.2%0.94%	57.0%0.50%	74.9%2.26%	60.3%5.17%
New York Giants	41.1%22.66%	52.2%6.59%	77.4%0.98%	70.5%0.38%	81.6%1.88%	70.6%7.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.7%5.25%	25.4%1.52%	56.3%0.24%	41.7%0.11%	59.4%0.36%	42.9%1.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	27.0%9.86%	36.5%2.14%	65.3%0.31%	57.3%0.24%	70.8%1.08%	57.2%3.23%
Washington Redskins	10.4%0.76%	14.6%0.31%	34.5%0.06%	15.0%0.02%	38.8%0.13%	24.3%0.39%
Baltimore Colts							90.2%1.13%	69.0%16.39%	58.9%22.66%	81.3%5.25%	73.0%9.86%	89.6%0.76%
Chicago Bears							81.2%0.22%	57.4%5.88%	47.8%6.59%	74.6%1.52%	63.5%2.14%	85.4%0.31%
Detroit Lions							48.3%0.03%	30.8%0.94%	22.6%0.98%	43.7%0.24%	34.7%0.31%	65.5%0.06%
Green Bay Packers							76.2%0.04%	43.0%0.50%	29.5%0.38%	58.3%0.11%	42.7%0.24%	85.0%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams							68.0%0.13%	25.1%2.26%	18.4%1.88%	40.6%0.36%	29.2%1.08%	61.2%0.13%
San Francisco 49ers							73.8%0.42%	39.7%5.17%	29.4%7.19%	57.1%1.21%	42.8%3.23%	75.7%0.39%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	58.29%
New York Giants	41.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New York Giants
New York Giants	41.7%100.00%
Baltimore Colts		58.3%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Baltimore Colts 58.29% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.29%

New York Giants 41.71% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.71%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1959-09-27	Detroit Lions	W 21-9	1599.96	1497.14	66.61%	31.80%	+17.75	1-0
1959-10-03	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1617.71	1521.72	65.74%	32.65%	-23.50	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1594.21	1440.61	66.91%	31.50%	+13.43	2-1
1959-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-7	1607.64	1519.34	58.23%	40.03%	+24.12	3-1
1959-10-25	Green Bay Packers	W 38-21	1631.76	1404.26	80.17%	18.66%	+12.37	4-1
1959-11-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-38	1644.13	1580.04	61.53%	36.77%	-26.05	4-2
1959-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1618.08	1396.76	74.81%	23.82%	-20.67	4-3
1959-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-24	1597.41	1361.03	76.38%	22.30%	+7.18	5-3
1959-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 45-14	1604.59	1587.00	55.08%	43.15%	+38.65	6-3
1959-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-21	1643.24	1446.47	77.26%	21.46%	+12.92	7-3
1959-12-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-14	1656.16	1558.60	59.51%	38.77%	+27.92	8-3
1959-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-26	1684.08	1396.14	81.24%	17.64%	+12.35	9-3
1959-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-9	1540.44	1380.80	67.67%	30.76%	-18.72	0-1
1959-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 26-21	1521.72	1617.71	32.65%	65.74%	+23.49	1-1
1959-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-28	1545.21	1484.21	61.12%	37.18%	-25.87	1-2
1959-10-18	Baltimore Colts	L 7-21	1519.34	1607.64	40.03%	58.23%	-24.12	1-3
1959-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1495.22	1569.14	35.47%	62.85%	-9.90	1-4
1959-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-21	1485.32	1517.31	41.13%	57.11%	+20.46	2-4
1959-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 28-17	1505.78	1376.32	69.88%	28.60%	+15.28	3-4
1959-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-3	1521.06	1618.59	38.77%	59.50%	+31.60	4-4
1959-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1552.66	1437.19	61.94%	36.37%	+18.52	5-4
1959-11-29	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 31-7	1571.18	1385.61	70.80%	27.70%	+21.88	6-4
1959-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-21	1593.06	1554.33	58.05%	40.20%	+15.85	7-4
1959-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 25-14	1608.91	1427.34	75.72%	22.95%	+12.25	8-4
1959-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 49-21	1425.73	1467.74	46.54%	51.67%	+43.87	1-0
1959-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-34	1469.60	1521.95	45.07%	53.15%	-37.66	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-23	1431.94	1451.49	42.87%	55.36%	-20.69	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-17	1411.25	1540.26	28.65%	69.83%	-14.60	1-3
1959-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1396.65	1458.03	43.79%	54.44%	-14.09	1-4
1959-11-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-24	1382.56	1529.52	32.32%	66.07%	+48.40	2-4
1959-11-08	@ New York Giants	L 3-9	1430.96	1583.96	25.94%	72.62%	-10.24	2-5
1959-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1420.72	1465.94	39.31%	58.96%	-20.02	2-6
1959-11-22	New York Giants	L 20-30	1400.70	1569.90	29.61%	68.85%	-15.09	2-7
1959-11-29	Chicago Bears	L 7-31	1385.61	1571.18	27.70%	70.80%	-21.87	2-8
1959-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-45	1363.74	1394.80	41.26%	56.98%	-32.54	2-9
1959-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-35	1331.20	1538.48	20.47%	78.29%	-12.75	2-10
1959-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1545.92	1535.25	47.16%	51.04%	-23.97	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-7	1521.95	1469.60	53.15%	45.07%	+37.66	1-1
1959-10-11	New York Giants	L 6-10	1559.61	1503.49	60.45%	37.84%	-19.35	1-2
1959-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1540.26	1411.25	69.83%	28.65%	+14.60	2-2
1959-10-25	Washington Redskins	W 34-7	1554.86	1437.88	68.37%	30.07%	+25.18	3-2
1959-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-31	1580.04	1644.13	36.77%	61.53%	+26.05	4-2
1959-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-7	1606.09	1488.06	68.50%	29.95%	+22.12	5-2
1959-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-17	1628.21	1417.43	73.67%	24.93%	+15.02	6-2
1959-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1643.23	1504.42	70.99%	27.52%	-11.33	6-3
1959-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-21	1631.90	1548.35	64.12%	34.23%	-10.25	6-4
1959-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 7-48	1621.65	1602.18	48.43%	49.78%	-49.81	6-5
1959-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-21	1571.84	1485.50	57.95%	40.30%	+17.17	7-5
1959-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-21	1497.14	1599.96	31.80%	66.61%	-17.76	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1479.38	1399.53	57.05%	41.20%	-38.77	0-2
1959-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 24-31	1440.61	1594.21	31.50%	66.91%	-13.43	0-3
1959-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-34	1427.18	1542.25	36.42%	61.89%	-26.89	0-4
1959-10-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-7	1400.29	1554.00	25.87%	72.70%	+36.69	1-4
1959-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-33	1436.98	1579.04	27.16%	71.37%	-22.31	1-5
1959-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 10-10	1414.67	1481.13	36.46%	61.85%	+1.01	1-5
1959-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1415.68	1479.61	43.43%	54.80%	+21.51	2-5
1959-11-22	Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1437.19	1552.66	36.37%	61.94%	-18.53	2-6
1959-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 17-24	1418.66	1392.52	56.29%	41.95%	-23.86	2-7
1959-12-06	Chicago Cardinals	W 45-21	1394.80	1363.74	56.98%	41.26%	+32.54	3-7
1959-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-25	1427.34	1608.91	22.95%	75.72%	-12.26	3-8
1959-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 9-6	1380.80	1540.44	30.76%	67.67%	+18.73	1-0
1959-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 28-10	1399.53	1479.38	41.20%	57.05%	+38.77	2-0
1959-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1438.30	1552.13	36.58%	61.72%	+9.87	3-0
1959-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-45	1448.17	1510.08	43.71%	54.51%	-43.91	3-1
1959-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-38	1404.26	1631.76	18.66%	80.17%	-12.37	3-2
1959-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 3-20	1391.89	1568.38	23.46%	75.18%	-15.57	3-3
1959-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-28	1376.32	1505.78	28.60%	69.88%	-15.29	3-4
1959-11-15	Baltimore Colts	L 24-28	1361.03	1597.41	22.30%	76.38%	-7.18	3-5
1959-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 21-0	1353.85	1402.41	45.61%	52.61%	+38.67	4-5
1959-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-17	1392.52	1418.66	41.95%	56.29%	+23.86	5-5
1959-12-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 38-20	1416.38	1433.55	43.20%	55.02%	+37.41	6-5
1959-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 36-14	1453.79	1530.68	35.09%	63.25%	+47.45	7-5
1959-09-26	New York Giants	L 21-23	1541.89	1547.79	51.73%	46.48%	-11.73	0-1
1959-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-34	1530.16	1506.18	49.08%	49.13%	-45.95	0-2
1959-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1484.21	1545.21	37.18%	61.12%	+25.87	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 45-6	1510.08	1448.17	54.51%	43.71%	+43.92	2-2
1959-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1554.00	1400.29	72.70%	25.87%	-36.69	2-3
1959-11-01	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1517.31	1485.32	57.11%	41.13%	-20.46	2-4
1959-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-24	1496.85	1601.36	37.83%	60.46%	-17.24	2-5
1959-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-23	1479.61	1415.68	54.80%	43.43%	-21.51	2-6
1959-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1458.10	1485.96	41.71%	56.53%	-11.63	2-7
1959-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-35	1446.47	1643.24	21.46%	77.26%	-12.92	2-8
1959-12-06	Green Bay Packers	L 20-38	1433.55	1416.38	55.02%	43.20%	-37.41	2-9
1959-12-12	Baltimore Colts	L 26-45	1396.14	1684.08	17.64%	81.24%	-12.36	2-10
1959-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-21	1547.79	1541.89	46.48%	51.73%	+11.74	1-0
1959-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1559.53	1411.16	66.25%	32.14%	-56.04	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-6	1503.49	1559.61	37.84%	60.45%	+19.35	2-1
1959-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-7	1522.84	1484.78	57.96%	40.29%	+26.75	3-1
1959-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-16	1549.59	1548.31	45.82%	52.39%	+18.79	4-1
1959-11-01	Green Bay Packers	W 20-3	1568.38	1391.89	75.18%	23.46%	+15.58	5-1
1959-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 9-3	1583.96	1430.96	72.62%	25.94%	+10.24	6-1
1959-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-14	1594.20	1480.12	68.01%	30.42%	-24.30	6-2
1959-11-22	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 30-20	1569.90	1400.70	68.85%	29.61%	+15.09	7-2
1959-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 45-14	1584.99	1363.74	79.61%	19.21%	+17.19	8-2
1959-12-06	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 48-7	1602.18	1621.65	49.78%	48.43%	+49.81	9-2
1959-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1651.99	1320.06	84.74%	14.30%	+8.57	10-2
1959-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1430.40	1486.93	37.78%	60.51%	-19.24	0-1
1959-10-04	New York Giants	W 49-21	1411.16	1559.53	32.14%	66.25%	+56.03	1-1
1959-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-24	1467.19	1531.61	43.36%	54.87%	+17.59	2-1
1959-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-24	1484.78	1522.84	40.29%	57.96%	-26.75	2-2
1959-10-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-24	1458.03	1396.65	54.44%	43.79%	+14.09	3-2
1959-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 30-23	1472.12	1412.70	60.90%	37.39%	+15.94	4-2
1959-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-28	1488.06	1606.09	29.95%	68.50%	-22.12	4-3
1959-11-15	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-17	1465.94	1420.72	58.96%	39.31%	+20.02	5-3
1959-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1485.96	1458.10	56.53%	41.71%	+11.63	6-3
1959-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-31	1497.59	1515.75	43.06%	55.16%	-38.58	6-4
1959-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-14	1459.01	1346.55	61.54%	36.77%	+26.49	7-4
1959-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-28	1485.50	1571.84	40.30%	57.95%	-17.17	7-5
1959-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1535.25	1545.92	51.04%	47.16%	+23.96	1-0
1959-10-04	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1559.21	1423.88	70.58%	27.92%	-27.60	1-1
1959-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-28	1531.61	1467.19	54.87%	43.36%	-17.59	1-2
1959-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-6	1514.02	1472.18	51.64%	46.57%	+34.29	2-2
1959-10-25	New York Giants	L 16-21	1548.31	1549.59	52.39%	45.82%	-18.79	2-3
1959-11-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 24-45	1529.52	1382.56	66.07%	32.32%	-48.39	2-4
1959-11-08	Detroit Lions	T 10-10	1481.13	1414.67	61.85%	36.46%	-1.01	2-4
1959-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-9	1480.12	1594.20	30.42%	68.01%	+24.30	3-4
1959-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1504.42	1643.23	27.52%	70.99%	+11.33	4-4
1959-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-0	1515.75	1497.59	55.16%	43.06%	+38.58	5-4
1959-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-27	1554.33	1593.06	40.20%	58.05%	-15.85	5-5
1959-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	W 35-20	1538.48	1331.20	78.29%	20.47%	+12.75	6-5
1959-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1486.93	1430.40	60.51%	37.78%	+19.25	1-0
1959-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-0	1506.18	1530.16	49.13%	49.08%	+45.95	2-0
1959-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-21	1552.13	1438.30	61.72%	36.58%	-9.88	2-1
1959-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-13	1542.25	1427.18	61.89%	36.42%	+26.89	3-1
1959-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1569.14	1495.22	62.85%	35.47%	+9.90	4-1
1959-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 33-7	1579.04	1436.98	71.37%	27.16%	+22.32	5-1
1959-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-16	1601.36	1496.85	60.46%	37.83%	+17.23	6-1
1959-11-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-14	1618.59	1521.06	59.50%	38.77%	-31.59	6-2
1959-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-45	1587.00	1604.59	43.15%	55.08%	-38.65	6-3
1959-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-20	1548.35	1631.90	34.23%	64.12%	+10.25	7-3
1959-12-05	Baltimore Colts	L 14-34	1558.60	1656.16	38.77%	59.51%	-27.92	7-4
1959-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-36	1530.68	1453.79	63.25%	35.09%	-47.45	7-5
1959-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-49	1467.74	1425.73	51.67%	46.54%	-43.86	0-1
1959-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-17	1423.88	1559.21	27.92%	70.58%	+27.61	1-1
1959-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 23-14	1451.49	1431.94	55.36%	42.87%	+20.69	2-1
1959-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-27	1472.18	1514.02	46.57%	51.64%	-34.30	2-2
1959-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-34	1437.88	1554.86	30.07%	68.37%	-25.18	2-3
1959-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-30	1412.70	1472.12	37.39%	60.90%	-15.94	2-4
1959-11-08	Baltimore Colts	W 27-24	1396.76	1618.08	23.82%	74.81%	+20.67	3-4
1959-11-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-31	1417.43	1628.21	24.93%	73.67%	-15.02	3-5
1959-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-21	1402.41	1353.85	52.61%	45.61%	-38.67	3-6
1959-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 14-45	1363.74	1584.99	19.21%	79.61%	-17.19	3-7
1959-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1346.55	1459.01	36.77%	61.54%	-26.49	3-8
1959-12-13	New York Giants	L 10-24	1320.06	1651.99	14.30%	84.74%	-8.58	3-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1959-12-27	New York Giants	W 31-16	1696.43	1660.56	58.56%	41.44%	+25.32	1-0
1959-12-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-31	1660.56	1696.43	41.44%	58.56%	-25.31	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1959-11-08	23.82%	@ Washington Redskins	1396.76	27	Baltimore Colts	1618.08	24
2	1959-10-25	25.87%	Detroit Lions	1400.29	17	@ Los Angeles Rams	1554.00	7
3	1959-11-22	27.52%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1504.42	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1643.23	20
4	1959-10-04	27.92%	Washington Redskins	1423.88	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1559.21	17
5	1959-11-15	30.42%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1480.12	14	@ New York Giants	1594.20	9
6	1959-09-27	30.76%	@ Green Bay Packers	1380.80	9	Chicago Bears	1540.44	6
7	1959-10-04	32.14%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1411.16	49	New York Giants	1559.53	21
8	1959-11-01	32.32%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1382.56	45	Pittsburgh Steelers	1529.52	24
9	1959-10-03	32.65%	Chicago Bears	1521.72	26	@ Baltimore Colts	1617.71	21
10	1959-11-29	34.23%	San Francisco 49ers	1548.35	21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1631.90	20
11	1959-12-13	35.09%	Green Bay Packers	1453.79	36	@ San Francisco 49ers	1530.68	14
12	1959-10-11	36.58%	@ Green Bay Packers	1438.30	21	San Francisco 49ers	1552.13	20
13	1959-11-01	36.77%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1580.04	38	@ Baltimore Colts	1644.13	31
14	1959-10-11	37.18%	Los Angeles Rams	1484.21	28	@ Chicago Bears	1545.21	21
15	1959-10-11	37.84%	New York Giants	1503.49	10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1559.61	6
16	1959-11-15	38.77%	@ Chicago Bears	1521.06	14	San Francisco 49ers	1618.59	3
17	1959-11-01	41.13%	Chicago Bears	1485.32	26	@ Los Angeles Rams	1517.31	21
18	1959-10-04	41.20%	@ Green Bay Packers	1399.53	28	Detroit Lions	1479.38	10
19	1959-11-26	41.95%	Green Bay Packers	1392.52	24	@ Detroit Lions	1418.66	17
20	1959-12-06	43.20%	Green Bay Packers	1416.38	38	@ Los Angeles Rams	1433.55	20
21	1959-10-11	43.36%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1467.19	28	Pittsburgh Steelers	1531.61	24
22	1959-11-15	43.43%	@ Detroit Lions	1415.68	23	Los Angeles Rams	1479.61	17
23	1959-11-22	45.61%	@ Green Bay Packers	1353.85	21	Washington Redskins	1402.41	0
24	1959-10-25	45.82%	New York Giants	1549.59	21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1548.31	16
25	1959-09-26	46.48%	New York Giants	1547.79	23	@ Los Angeles Rams	1541.89	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1959-10-04	56.04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	49	1411.16	32.14%	New York Giants	21	1559.53	66.25%
2	1959-12-06	49.81	@ New York Giants	48	1602.18	49.78%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1621.65	48.43%
3	1959-11-01	48.40	@ Chicago Cardinals	45	1382.56	32.32%	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1529.52	66.07%
4	1959-12-13	47.45	Green Bay Packers	36	1453.79	35.09%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1530.68	63.25%
5	1959-10-04	45.95	@ San Francisco 49ers	34	1506.18	49.13%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1530.16	49.08%
6	1959-10-18	43.92	Los Angeles Rams	45	1510.08	54.51%	@ Green Bay Packers	6	1448.17	43.71%
7	1959-09-27	43.87	@ Chicago Cardinals	49	1425.73	46.54%	Washington Redskins	21	1467.74	51.67%
8	1959-10-04	38.77	@ Green Bay Packers	28	1399.53	41.20%	Detroit Lions	10	1479.38	57.05%
9	1959-11-22	38.67	@ Green Bay Packers	21	1353.85	45.61%	Washington Redskins	0	1402.41	52.61%
10	1959-11-22	38.65	@ Baltimore Colts	45	1604.59	55.08%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1587.00	43.15%
11	1959-11-29	38.58	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1515.75	55.16%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1497.59	43.06%
12	1959-10-04	37.66	Cleveland Browns (1st)	34	1521.95	53.15%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1469.60	45.07%
13	1959-12-06	37.41	Green Bay Packers	38	1416.38	43.20%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1433.55	55.02%
14	1959-10-25	36.69	Detroit Lions	17	1400.29	25.87%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1554.00	72.70%
15	1959-10-18	34.30	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1514.02	51.64%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1472.18	46.57%
16	1959-12-06	32.54	@ Detroit Lions	45	1394.80	56.98%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1363.74	41.26%
17	1959-11-15	31.60	@ Chicago Bears	14	1521.06	38.77%	San Francisco 49ers	3	1618.59	59.50%
18	1959-12-05	27.92	Baltimore Colts	34	1656.16	59.51%	@ San Francisco 49ers	14	1558.60	38.77%
19	1959-10-04	27.61	Washington Redskins	23	1423.88	27.92%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1559.21	70.58%
20	1959-10-18	26.89	San Francisco 49ers	34	1542.25	61.89%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1427.18	36.42%
21	1959-10-18	26.75	@ New York Giants	24	1522.84	57.96%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1484.78	40.29%
22	1959-12-06	26.49	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1459.01	61.54%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1346.55	36.77%
23	1959-11-01	26.05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1580.04	36.77%	@ Baltimore Colts	31	1644.13	61.53%
24	1959-10-11	25.87	Los Angeles Rams	28	1484.21	37.18%	@ Chicago Bears	21	1545.21	61.12%
25	1959-12-27 *	25.32	@ Baltimore Colts	31	1696.43	58.56%	New York Giants	16	1660.56	41.44%