1954 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2nd Title

Last Title: 1950

Runner-Up

Detroit Lions

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1953

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.76 wins above expected

8 wins · 5.24 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

2.34 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.34 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	9	3	0	.750	—	336	162	+174	8.05	+0.95
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	4	1	.625	1.5	284	230	+54	7.38	+0.12
3	New York Giants	7	5	0	.583	2	293	184	+109	5.98	+1.02
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	7	0	.417	4	219	263	-44	5.60	-0.60
5	Washington Redskins	3	9	0	.250	6	207	432	-225	5.34	-2.34
6	Chicago Cardinals	2	10	0	.167	7	183	347	-164	3.82	-1.82

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	9	2	1	.792	—	337	189	+148	7.48	+2.02
2	Chicago Bears	8	4	0	.667	1.5	301	279	+22	5.24	+2.76
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	4	1	.625	2	313	251	+62	7.81	-0.31
4	Los Angeles Rams	6	5	1	.542	3	314	285	+29	7.70	-1.20
5	Green Bay Packers	4	8	0	.333	5.5	234	251	-17	4.38	-0.38
6	Baltimore Colts	3	9	0	.250	6.5	131	279	-148	3.22	-0.22

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Cleveland Browns (1st) 56

Detroit Lions 10

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1647	9	8.05	+0.95	84.38%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
Detroit Lions	West	1626	9.5	7.48	+2.02	91.86%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1595	7.5	7.81	-0.31	44.90%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1583	7.5	7.38	+0.12	56.02%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1578	6.5	7.70	-1.20	24.97%	0	5	7	8	9	10	12
New York Giants	East	1517	7	5.98	+1.02	84.67%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Chicago Bears	West	1488	8	5.24	+2.76	98.29%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1458	5	5.60	-0.60	51.90%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Washington Redskins	East	1427	3	5.34	-2.34	14.75%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1412	4	4.38	-0.38	57.79%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1352	2	3.82	-1.82	22.66%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Baltimore Colts	West	1317	3	3.22	-0.22	62.83%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Giants	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	—
Detroit Lions	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.39%	1.39%	—	2.08%	1.39%	2.08%	1.39%	9.72%
7–13	1.39%	2.78%	2.78%	2.08%	3.47%	2.78%	1.39%	16.67%
14–20	—	2.78%	6.94%	3.47%	3.47%	3.47%	—	20.14%
21–27	2.08%	2.08%	3.47%	6.94%	3.47%	0.69%	2.78%	21.53%
28–34	1.39%	3.47%	3.47%	3.47%	—	1.39%	0.69%	13.89%
35–41	2.08%	2.78%	3.47%	0.69%	1.39%	—	0.69%	11.11%
42+	1.39%	1.39%	—	2.78%	0.69%	0.69%	—	6.94%
Total	9.72%	16.67%	20.14%	21.53%	13.89%	11.11%	6.94%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.89	21.89	+0.00
SD	12.73	12.73	20.00
CV	0.58	0.58	—
Max	62	62	+59
Min	0	0	-59

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.92	23.25	-12.33
SD	7.96	11.47	16.68
CV	0.73	0.49	—
Max	22	48	+6
Min	0	7	-48

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	25.00%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	50.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	33.33%	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.08	23.25	+1.83
SD	8.05	14.69	15.92
CV	0.32	0.63	—
Max	38	48	+22
Min	10	3	-29

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	—	25.00%	16.67%	—	58.33%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	—	41.67%	33.33%	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.25	28.92	-13.67
SD	8.88	8.34	15.16
CV	0.58	0.29	—
Max	38	41	+22
Min	3	14	-32

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	25.00%	33.33%	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.00	13.50	+14.50
SD	16.12	15.00	24.05
CV	0.58	1.11	—
Max	62	55	+59
Min	6	0	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
35–41	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.08	15.75	+12.33
SD	11.26	11.61	15.71
CV	0.40	0.74	—
Max	48	37	+41
Min	13	0	-6

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	20.92	-1.42
SD	11.59	9.39	14.72
CV	0.59	0.45	—
Max	37	35	+23
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%
Total	8.33%	—	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.17	23.75	+2.42
SD	13.39	10.16	17.27
CV	0.51	0.43	—
Max	48	38	+48
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	41.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.42	15.33	+9.08
SD	12.66	7.75	16.47
CV	0.52	0.51	—
Max	51	29	+31
Min	7	3	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	33.33%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.67	19.17	+4.50
SD	14.45	9.27	15.40
CV	0.61	0.48	—
Max	49	37	+28
Min	0	6	-23

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.25	21.92	-3.67
SD	15.09	10.03	20.63
CV	0.83	0.46	—
Max	55	42	+30
Min	3	7	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
35–41	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	16.67%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.08	20.92	+5.17
SD	11.04	15.31	20.78
CV	0.42	0.73	—
Max	41	48	+35
Min	7	0	-41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.25	36.00	-18.75
SD	10.63	14.26	20.33
CV	0.62	0.40	—
Max	37	62	+17
Min	3	14	-59

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	8	5.24	+2.76
2	Detroit Lions	9.5	7.48	+2.02
3	New York Giants	7	5.98	+1.02
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	8.05	+0.95
5	Philadelphia Eagles	7.5	7.38	+0.12

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	3	5.34	-2.34
2	Chicago Cardinals	2	3.82	-1.82
3	Los Angeles Rams	6.5	7.70	-1.20
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	5.60	-0.60
5	Green Bay Packers	4	4.38	-0.38

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	3	Oct 17 – Oct 30	1 in 42
2	Baltimore Colts	2	Nov 28 – Dec 4	1 in 39
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	Oct 24 – Dec 12	1 in 23
4	Chicago Bears	4	Nov 21 – Dec 12	1 in 22
5	Detroit Lions	5	Oct 31 – Nov 25	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	Oct 31 – Nov 20	1 in 26
2	San Francisco 49ers	3	Oct 31 – Nov 14	1 in 26
3	Washington Redskins	5	Sep 26 – Oct 24	1 in 19
4	Baltimore Colts	7	Oct 10 – Nov 21	1 in 15
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Oct 23 – Oct 30	1 in 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.88%	26.00%	13.61%	7.27%	3.29%	0.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.30%	30.89%	19.47%	12.03%	6.19%	2.12%
New York Giants	10.03%	16.84%	22.74%	22.11%	18.27%	10.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.39%	13.07%	20.00%	23.30%	22.98%	14.27%
Washington Redskins	4.75%	10.80%	18.34%	23.33%	25.83%	16.94%
Chicago Cardinals	0.65%	2.39%	5.84%	11.96%	23.44%	55.72%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
San Francisco 49ers	35.57%	29.33%	21.55%	9.63%	3.22%	0.71%
Los Angeles Rams	32.95%	29.83%	22.94%	10.17%	3.40%	0.70%
Detroit Lions	26.69%	28.42%	26.55%	12.63%	4.62%	1.09%
Chicago Bears	3.47%	8.19%	16.85%	33.33%	25.60%	12.57%
Green Bay Packers	1.11%	3.42%	9.04%	23.43%	37.24%	25.76%
Baltimore Colts	0.21%	0.81%	3.07%	10.81%	25.92%	59.17%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	25.10%	21.05%	14.80%	12.30%	8.87%	6.49%	4.72%	3.09%	1.97%	0.99%	0.50%	0.13%
San Francisco 49ers	19.91%	17.84%	16.09%	13.38%	10.82%	8.49%	5.33%	3.96%	2.09%	1.38%	0.52%	0.20%
Los Angeles Rams	17.98%	17.04%	15.92%	14.00%	11.35%	9.45%	5.60%	4.26%	2.22%	1.40%	0.58%	0.21%
Detroit Lions	15.61%	13.77%	15.35%	13.38%	13.48%	10.42%	6.97%	5.04%	3.00%	1.91%	0.76%	0.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.75%	15.23%	14.69%	15.24%	11.64%	10.08%	7.75%	5.29%	3.78%	2.02%	1.16%	0.37%
New York Giants	3.41%	5.46%	7.32%	9.15%	11.14%	12.47%	12.62%	11.43%	10.39%	7.90%	5.47%	3.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.06%	3.56%	5.40%	7.27%	9.46%	11.25%	13.05%	12.42%	12.66%	10.38%	8.15%	4.33%
Washington Redskins	1.31%	2.66%	4.13%	6.17%	8.23%	10.79%	12.58%	13.08%	14.26%	11.61%	9.57%	5.62%
Chicago Bears	1.40%	2.18%	3.84%	5.03%	7.66%	9.48%	12.92%	15.85%	12.95%	13.21%	8.54%	6.93%
Green Bay Packers	0.31%	0.74%	1.48%	2.18%	3.93%	5.44%	8.93%	12.20%	14.88%	19.35%	15.85%	14.73%
Chicago Cardinals	0.12%	0.35%	0.71%	1.38%	2.31%	3.69%	5.94%	7.70%	12.55%	15.18%	26.16%	23.92%
Baltimore Colts	0.04%	0.13%	0.27%	0.53%	1.11%	1.96%	3.59%	5.69%	9.27%	14.67%	22.74%	40.01%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.88%	51.12%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.30%	70.70%
New York Giants	10.03%	89.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.39%	93.61%
Washington Redskins	4.75%	95.25%
Chicago Cardinals	0.65%	99.35%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	35.57%	64.43%
Los Angeles Rams	32.95%	67.05%
Detroit Lions	26.69%	73.31%
Chicago Bears	3.47%	96.53%
Green Bay Packers	1.11%	98.89%
Baltimore Colts	0.21%	99.78%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	48.88%	33.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	29.30%	17.69%
San Francisco 49ers	35.57%	14.02%
Los Angeles Rams	32.95%	12.35%
Detroit Lions	26.69%	11.82%
New York Giants	10.03%	5.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.39%	2.69%
Washington Redskins	4.75%	1.77%
Chicago Bears	3.47%	0.93%
Green Bay Packers	1.11%	0.21%
Chicago Cardinals	0.65%	0.19%
Baltimore Colts	0.21%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts				0.01%				<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%		<0.01%
Chicago Bears			<0.01%	0.24%				0.15%	0.33%	0.12%		0.08%
Chicago Cardinals	<0.01%	<0.01%			0.06%	<0.01%	0.05%				0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.09%	1.14%			8.01%	0.52%	11.51%				11.92%
Detroit Lions			0.15%	4.47%				1.68%	3.22%	1.23%		1.06%
Green Bay Packers			<0.01%	0.08%				0.03%	0.05%	0.01%		0.02%
Los Angeles Rams			0.13%	5.05%				1.19%	3.70%	1.26%		1.01%
New York Giants	<0.01%	0.29%			1.46%	0.10%	1.33%				1.92%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.07%	0.84%			4.07%	0.22%	6.08%				6.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%	0.15%			0.78%	0.02%	0.95%				0.76%
San Francisco 49ers			0.17%	5.83%				1.85%	4.29%	1.07%		0.80%
Washington Redskins	<0.01%	0.10%			0.49%	0.04%	0.66%				0.48%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	63.82%
Detroit Lions	36.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns (1st)		63.82%
Detroit Lions	36.18%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns (1st) 63.82% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.82%

Detroit Lions 36.18% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.18%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1954-09-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-48	1342.80	1593.15	26.15%	71.43%	-10.56	0-1
1954-10-02	New York Giants	W 20-14	1332.24	1479.54	38.85%	58.28%	+8.23	1-1
1954-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-28	1340.47	1449.35	24.49%	73.18%	-6.21	1-2
1954-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-35	1334.26	1595.27	12.10%	86.49%	-4.13	1-3
1954-10-24	Green Bay Packers	L 6-7	1330.13	1401.90	49.48%	47.54%	-2.86	1-4
1954-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1327.27	1446.72	23.41%	74.33%	-2.36	1-5
1954-11-06	Detroit Lions	L 3-27	1324.91	1600.00	23.55%	74.18%	-6.72	1-6
1954-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-24	1318.19	1422.82	24.94%	72.71%	-4.81	1-7
1954-11-21	Chicago Bears	L 13-28	1313.38	1448.62	40.49%	56.60%	-9.13	1-8
1954-11-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1304.25	1596.44	21.86%	75.97%	+8.70	2-8
1954-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 22-21	1312.95	1579.62	11.76%	86.85%	+4.94	3-8
1954-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-10	1317.89	1594.29	11.21%	87.47%	-1.11	3-9
1954-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-48	1447.62	1578.94	22.23%	75.58%	-6.46	0-1
1954-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1441.16	1398.34	43.42%	53.63%	+8.19	1-1
1954-10-10	Baltimore Colts	W 28-9	1449.35	1340.47	73.18%	24.49%	+6.22	2-1
1954-10-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-31	1455.57	1604.21	38.66%	58.46%	-5.95	2-2
1954-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 38-42	1449.62	1577.35	22.58%	75.20%	-2.63	2-3
1954-10-31	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-27	1446.99	1615.32	18.84%	79.20%	+9.05	3-3
1954-11-07	Green Bay Packers	W 28-23	1456.04	1427.22	63.48%	33.78%	+4.40	4-3
1954-11-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-39	1460.44	1616.24	37.70%	59.45%	-11.82	4-4
1954-11-21	@ Baltimore Colts	W 28-13	1448.62	1313.38	56.60%	40.49%	+9.12	5-4
1954-11-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-13	1457.74	1590.38	40.85%	56.23%	+10.76	6-4
1954-12-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 29-7	1468.50	1371.24	51.21%	45.83%	+12.47	7-4
1954-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 28-24	1480.97	1625.40	39.24%	57.88%	+6.68	8-4
1954-09-26	New York Giants	L 10-41	1404.30	1463.01	51.36%	45.67%	-16.54	0-1
1954-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-35	1387.76	1592.95	31.37%	65.97%	-7.97	0-2
1954-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-31	1379.79	1605.86	14.36%	84.03%	-4.06	0-3
1954-10-17	@ New York Giants	L 17-31	1375.73	1490.75	23.86%	73.85%	-5.20	0-4
1954-10-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-35	1370.53	1593.09	29.30%	68.14%	-9.66	0-5
1954-10-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1360.87	1511.87	38.35%	58.79%	+5.87	1-5
1954-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-30	1366.74	1583.10	15.04%	83.29%	-3.48	1-6
1954-11-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-28	1363.26	1584.61	14.69%	83.67%	-2.82	1-7
1954-11-21	Washington Redskins	W 38-16	1360.44	1444.73	47.68%	49.34%	+13.40	2-7
1954-11-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1373.84	1470.43	25.80%	71.80%	-2.60	2-8
1954-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 7-29	1371.24	1468.50	45.83%	51.21%	-12.47	2-9
1954-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-37	1358.77	1419.88	29.82%	67.59%	-7.17	2-10
1954-09-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-28	1616.25	1582.56	42.14%	54.93%	-10.39	0-1
1954-10-10	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-7	1605.86	1379.79	84.03%	14.36%	+4.06	1-1
1954-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-55	1609.92	1485.27	55.11%	41.96%	-16.83	1-2
1954-10-24	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 35-3	1593.09	1370.53	68.14%	29.30%	+9.66	2-2
1954-10-31	New York Giants	W 24-14	1602.75	1503.68	72.09%	25.53%	+4.70	3-2
1954-11-07	Washington Redskins	W 62-3	1607.45	1449.07	78.27%	19.71%	+8.79	4-2
1954-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 39-10	1616.24	1460.44	59.45%	37.70%	+11.82	5-2
1954-11-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-0	1628.06	1576.68	66.38%	30.98%	+4.43	6-2
1954-11-28	@ New York Giants	W 16-7	1632.49	1523.02	52.95%	44.09%	+7.68	7-2
1954-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-14	1640.17	1427.83	66.87%	30.51%	+7.95	8-2
1954-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-7	1648.12	1464.46	80.58%	17.55%	+6.02	9-2
1954-12-19	Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1654.14	1618.73	64.34%	32.95%	-7.40	9-3
1954-09-26	Chicago Bears	W 48-23	1578.94	1447.62	75.58%	22.23%	+6.46	1-0
1954-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 21-3	1585.40	1603.38	57.13%	39.97%	+9.87	2-0
1954-10-16	Baltimore Colts	W 35-0	1595.27	1334.26	86.49%	12.10%	+4.12	3-0
1954-10-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-37	1599.39	1610.16	36.11%	61.08%	-5.15	3-1
1954-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1594.24	1579.98	39.46%	57.65%	+5.76	4-1
1954-11-06	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-3	1600.00	1324.91	74.18%	23.55%	+6.71	5-1
1954-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 48-7	1606.71	1595.87	61.09%	36.10%	+13.47	6-1
1954-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-17	1620.18	1427.64	64.35%	32.94%	+3.84	7-1
1954-11-25	Green Bay Packers	W 28-24	1624.02	1423.80	81.99%	16.24%	+1.88	8-1
1954-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	T 13-13	1625.90	1575.76	66.23%	31.13%	-0.50	8-1
1954-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-28	1625.40	1480.97	57.88%	39.24%	-6.67	8-2
1954-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-10	1618.73	1654.14	32.95%	64.34%	+7.40	9-2
1954-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-21	1401.22	1471.32	49.72%	47.30%	-2.88	0-1
1954-10-03	Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1398.34	1441.16	53.63%	43.42%	-8.20	0-2
1954-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-23	1390.14	1599.81	30.83%	66.54%	-4.40	0-3
1954-10-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-17	1385.74	1593.51	31.06%	66.30%	+16.16	1-3
1954-10-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 7-6	1401.90	1330.13	47.54%	49.48%	+2.87	2-3
1954-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-14	1404.77	1605.56	16.20%	82.04%	+22.45	3-3
1954-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-28	1427.22	1456.04	33.78%	63.48%	-4.40	3-4
1954-11-13	Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1422.82	1318.19	72.71%	24.94%	+4.82	4-4
1954-11-21	Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1427.64	1620.18	32.94%	64.35%	-3.84	4-5
1954-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-28	1423.80	1624.02	16.24%	81.99%	-1.88	4-6
1954-12-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1421.92	1587.74	19.05%	78.97%	-6.54	4-7
1954-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-35	1415.38	1574.67	19.63%	78.35%	-3.23	4-8
1954-09-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 48-0	1593.15	1342.80	71.43%	26.15%	+10.55	1-0
1954-10-03	San Francisco 49ers	T 24-24	1603.70	1599.48	60.19%	36.97%	-0.32	1-0
1954-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-21	1603.38	1585.40	39.97%	57.13%	-9.87	1-1
1954-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-35	1593.51	1385.74	66.30%	31.06%	-16.16	1-2
1954-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 42-38	1577.35	1449.62	75.20%	22.58%	+2.63	2-2
1954-10-31	Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1579.98	1594.24	57.65%	39.46%	-5.76	2-3
1954-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-34	1574.22	1606.26	33.37%	63.90%	+10.39	3-3
1954-11-14	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1584.61	1363.26	83.67%	14.69%	+2.82	4-3
1954-11-21	@ New York Giants	W 17-16	1587.43	1525.97	46.07%	50.96%	+2.95	5-3
1954-11-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-24	1590.38	1457.74	56.23%	40.85%	-10.76	5-4
1954-12-04	Baltimore Colts	L 21-22	1579.62	1312.95	86.85%	11.76%	-4.95	5-5
1954-12-12	Green Bay Packers	W 35-27	1574.67	1415.38	78.35%	19.63%	+3.23	6-5
1954-09-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 41-10	1463.01	1404.30	45.67%	51.36%	+16.53	1-0
1954-10-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-20	1479.54	1332.24	58.28%	38.85%	-8.23	1-1
1954-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 51-21	1471.31	1486.32	35.56%	61.65%	+19.44	2-1
1954-10-17	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-17	1490.75	1375.73	73.85%	23.86%	+5.20	3-1
1954-10-24	Washington Redskins	W 24-7	1495.95	1454.45	65.13%	32.19%	+7.73	4-1
1954-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-24	1503.68	1602.75	25.53%	72.09%	-4.70	4-2
1954-11-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-6	1498.98	1506.00	36.60%	60.57%	+17.09	5-2
1954-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-14	1516.07	1586.58	49.66%	47.36%	+9.90	6-2
1954-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-17	1525.97	1587.43	50.96%	46.07%	-2.95	6-3
1954-11-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-16	1523.02	1632.49	44.09%	52.95%	-7.68	6-4
1954-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-3	1515.34	1473.03	65.23%	32.09%	+8.57	7-4
1954-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-29	1523.91	1576.26	30.86%	66.50%	-6.97	7-5
1954-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-10	1582.56	1616.25	54.93%	42.14%	+10.39	1-0
1954-10-03	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 35-16	1592.95	1387.76	65.97%	31.37%	+7.97	2-0
1954-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-22	1600.92	1487.24	73.71%	24.00%	+1.98	3-0
1954-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 49-21	1602.90	1466.88	56.71%	40.39%	+12.43	4-0
1954-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-17	1615.33	1502.10	53.49%	43.56%	-9.77	4-1
1954-10-30	Green Bay Packers	L 14-37	1605.56	1404.77	82.04%	16.20%	-22.46	4-2
1954-11-07	Chicago Cardinals	W 30-14	1583.10	1366.74	83.29%	15.04%	+3.48	5-2
1954-11-14	@ New York Giants	L 14-27	1586.58	1516.07	47.36%	49.66%	-9.90	5-3
1954-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-6	1576.68	1628.06	30.98%	66.38%	-4.42	5-4
1954-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 41-33	1572.26	1431.33	76.56%	21.31%	+3.50	6-4
1954-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	T 13-13	1575.76	1625.90	31.13%	66.23%	+0.50	6-4
1954-12-12	New York Giants	W 29-14	1576.26	1523.91	66.50%	30.86%	+6.97	7-4
1954-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 21-20	1471.32	1401.22	47.30%	49.72%	+2.88	1-0
1954-10-02	Washington Redskins	W 37-7	1474.20	1499.36	56.13%	40.96%	+13.04	2-0
1954-10-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-24	1487.24	1600.92	24.00%	73.71%	-1.97	2-1
1954-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 55-27	1485.27	1609.92	41.96%	55.11%	+16.83	3-1
1954-10-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-7	1502.10	1615.33	43.56%	53.49%	+9.77	4-1
1954-10-31	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 14-17	1511.87	1360.87	58.79%	38.35%	-5.87	4-2
1954-11-07	New York Giants	L 6-30	1506.00	1498.98	60.57%	36.60%	-17.09	4-3
1954-11-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1488.91	1440.28	44.24%	52.80%	-4.45	4-4
1954-11-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1484.46	1582.40	45.73%	51.30%	-14.03	4-5
1954-11-28	Chicago Cardinals	W 20-17	1470.43	1373.84	71.80%	25.80%	+2.60	5-5
1954-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 3-24	1473.03	1515.34	32.09%	65.23%	-8.57	5-6
1954-12-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-42	1464.46	1648.12	17.55%	80.58%	-6.02	5-7
1954-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 41-7	1590.15	1508.70	70.05%	27.47%	+9.33	1-0
1954-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1599.48	1603.70	36.97%	60.19%	+0.33	1-0
1954-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-17	1599.81	1390.14	66.54%	30.83%	+4.40	2-0
1954-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-24	1604.21	1455.57	58.46%	38.66%	+5.95	3-0
1954-10-24	Detroit Lions	W 37-31	1610.16	1599.39	61.08%	36.11%	+5.16	4-0
1954-10-31	Chicago Bears	L 27-31	1615.32	1446.99	79.20%	18.84%	-9.06	4-1
1954-11-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 34-42	1606.26	1574.22	63.90%	33.37%	-10.39	4-2
1954-11-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-48	1595.87	1606.71	36.10%	61.09%	-13.47	4-3
1954-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-3	1582.40	1484.46	51.30%	45.73%	+14.04	5-3
1954-11-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 13-17	1596.44	1304.25	75.97%	21.86%	-8.70	5-4
1954-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 35-0	1587.74	1421.92	78.97%	19.05%	+6.55	6-4
1954-12-11	Baltimore Colts	W 10-7	1594.29	1317.89	87.47%	11.21%	+1.11	7-4
1954-09-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-41	1508.70	1590.15	27.47%	70.05%	-9.34	0-1
1954-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-37	1499.36	1474.20	40.96%	56.13%	-13.04	0-2
1954-10-10	New York Giants	L 21-51	1486.32	1471.31	61.65%	35.56%	-19.44	0-3
1954-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-49	1466.88	1602.90	40.39%	56.71%	-12.43	0-4
1954-10-24	@ New York Giants	L 7-24	1454.45	1495.95	32.19%	65.13%	-7.73	0-5
1954-10-31	Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1446.72	1327.27	74.33%	23.41%	+2.35	1-5
1954-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-62	1449.07	1607.45	19.71%	78.27%	-8.79	1-6
1954-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1440.28	1488.91	52.80%	44.24%	+4.45	2-6
1954-11-21	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 16-38	1444.73	1360.44	49.34%	47.68%	-13.40	2-7
1954-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 33-41	1431.33	1572.26	21.31%	76.56%	-3.50	2-8
1954-12-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-34	1427.83	1640.17	30.51%	66.87%	-7.95	2-9
1954-12-12	Chicago Cardinals	W 37-20	1419.88	1358.77	67.59%	29.82%	+7.16	3-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1954-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 56-10	1646.74	1626.13	63.89%	36.11%	+13.76	1-0
1954-12-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-56	1626.13	1646.74	36.11%	63.89%	-13.77	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1954-12-04	11.76%	Baltimore Colts	1312.95	22	@ Los Angeles Rams	1579.62	21
2	1954-10-30	16.20%	Green Bay Packers	1404.77	37	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1605.56	14
3	1954-10-31	18.84%	Chicago Bears	1446.99	31	@ San Francisco 49ers	1615.32	27
4	1954-11-28	21.86%	@ Baltimore Colts	1304.25	17	San Francisco 49ers	1596.44	13
5	1954-10-17	31.06%	@ Green Bay Packers	1385.74	35	Los Angeles Rams	1593.51	17
6	1954-12-19	32.95%	Detroit Lions	1618.73	14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1654.14	10
7	1954-11-07	33.37%	Los Angeles Rams	1574.22	42	@ San Francisco 49ers	1606.26	34
8	1954-10-10	35.56%	New York Giants	1471.31	51	@ Washington Redskins	1486.32	21
9	1954-11-07	36.60%	New York Giants	1498.98	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1506.00	6
10	1954-10-31	38.35%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1360.87	17	Pittsburgh Steelers	1511.87	14
11	1954-10-02	38.85%	@ Baltimore Colts	1332.24	20	New York Giants	1479.54	14
12	1954-12-12	39.24%	@ Chicago Bears	1480.97	28	Detroit Lions	1625.40	24
13	1954-10-31	39.46%	Detroit Lions	1594.24	27	@ Los Angeles Rams	1579.98	24
14	1954-11-28	40.85%	@ Chicago Bears	1457.74	24	Los Angeles Rams	1590.38	13
15	1954-10-17	41.96%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1485.27	55	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1609.92	27
16	1954-10-03	43.42%	Chicago Bears	1441.16	10	@ Green Bay Packers	1398.34	3
17	1954-10-23	43.56%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1502.10	17	Philadelphia Eagles	1615.33	7
18	1954-09-26	45.67%	New York Giants	1463.01	41	@ Chicago Cardinals	1404.30	10
19	1954-11-21	46.07%	Los Angeles Rams	1587.43	17	@ New York Giants	1525.97	16
20	1954-09-26	47.30%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1471.32	21	@ Green Bay Packers	1401.22	20
21	1954-10-24	47.54%	Green Bay Packers	1401.90	7	@ Baltimore Colts	1330.13	6
22	1954-11-21	47.68%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1360.44	38	Washington Redskins	1444.73	16

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1954-10-30	22.46	Green Bay Packers	37	1404.77	16.20%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1605.56	82.04%
2	1954-10-10	19.44	New York Giants	51	1471.31	35.56%	@ Washington Redskins	21	1486.32	61.65%
3	1954-11-07	17.09	New York Giants	30	1498.98	36.60%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1506.00	60.57%
4	1954-10-17	16.83	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	55	1485.27	41.96%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1609.92	55.11%
5	1954-09-26	16.54	New York Giants	41	1463.01	45.67%	@ Chicago Cardinals	10	1404.30	51.36%
6	1954-10-17	16.16	@ Green Bay Packers	35	1385.74	31.06%	Los Angeles Rams	17	1593.51	66.30%
7	1954-11-20	14.04	San Francisco 49ers	31	1582.40	51.30%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1484.46	45.73%
8	1954-12-26 *	13.77	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	56	1646.74	63.89%	Detroit Lions	10	1626.13	36.11%
9	1954-11-14	13.47	@ Detroit Lions	48	1606.71	61.09%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1595.87	36.10%
10	1954-11-21	13.40	@ Chicago Cardinals	38	1360.44	47.68%	Washington Redskins	16	1444.73	49.34%
11	1954-10-02	13.04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	37	1474.20	56.13%	Washington Redskins	7	1499.36	40.96%
12	1954-12-05	12.47	Chicago Bears	29	1468.50	51.21%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1371.24	45.83%
13	1954-10-17	12.43	Philadelphia Eagles	49	1602.90	56.71%	@ Washington Redskins	21	1466.88	40.39%
14	1954-11-14	11.82	Cleveland Browns (1st)	39	1616.24	59.45%	@ Chicago Bears	10	1460.44	37.70%
15	1954-11-28	10.76	@ Chicago Bears	24	1457.74	40.85%	Los Angeles Rams	13	1590.38	56.23%
16	1954-09-26	10.56	Los Angeles Rams	48	1593.15	71.43%	@ Baltimore Colts	0	1342.80	26.15%
17	1954-09-26	10.39	@ Philadelphia Eagles	28	1582.56	54.93%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1616.25	42.14%
18	1954-11-07	10.39	Los Angeles Rams	42	1574.22	33.37%	@ San Francisco 49ers	34	1606.26	63.90%
19	1954-11-14	9.90	@ New York Giants	27	1516.07	49.66%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1586.58	47.36%
20	1954-10-10	9.87	@ Detroit Lions	21	1585.40	57.13%	Los Angeles Rams	3	1603.38	39.97%
21	1954-10-23	9.77	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1502.10	43.56%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1615.33	53.49%
22	1954-10-24	9.66	Cleveland Browns (1st)	35	1593.09	68.14%	@ Chicago Cardinals	3	1370.53	29.30%
23	1954-09-26	9.34	@ San Francisco 49ers	41	1590.15	70.05%	Washington Redskins	7	1508.70	27.47%
24	1954-11-21	9.13	Chicago Bears	28	1448.62	56.60%	@ Baltimore Colts	13	1313.38	40.49%
25	1954-10-31	9.06	Chicago Bears	31	1446.99	18.84%	@ San Francisco 49ers	27	1615.32	79.20%