1953 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Detroit Lions

3rd Title

Last Title: 1952

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1952

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

2.18 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.82 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

2.10 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.10 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	1	0	.917	-	348	162	+186	9.28	+1.72
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	4	1	.625	3.5	352	215	+137	6.92	+0.58
3	Washington Redskins	6	5	1	.542	4.5	208	215	-7	6.00	+0.50
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6	0	.500	5	211	263	-52	5.42	+0.58
5	New York Giants	3	9	0	.250	8	179	277	-98	5.10	-2.10
6	Chicago Cardinals	1	10	1	.125	9.5	190	337	-147	3.50	-2.00

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	10	2	0	.833	-	271	205	+66	7.82	+2.18
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	3	0	.750	1	372	237	+135	7.24	+1.76
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	3	1	.708	1.5	366	236	+130	8.69	-0.19
4	Chicago Bears	3	8	1	.292	6.5	218	262	-44	5.50	-2.00
5	Baltimore Colts	3	9	0	.250	7	182	350	-168	2.48	+0.52
6	Green Bay Packers	2	9	1	.208	7.5	200	338	-138	4.06	-1.56

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Detroit Lions 17

Cleveland Browns (1st) 16

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1727	11	9.28	+1.72	96.89%	2	7	8	9	10	11	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1660	9	7.24	+1.76	95.20%	0	4	6	7	8	9	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1660	8.5	8.69	-0.19	49.56%	2	6	7	9	9	11	12
Detroit Lions	West	1653	10	7.82	+2.18	97.52%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1630	7.5	6.92	+0.58	70.04%	0	4	6	7	8	9	12
Washington Redskins	East	1515	6.5	6.00	+0.50	68.29%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1453	6	5.42	+0.58	79.84%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
New York Giants	East	1432	3	5.10	-2.10	20.65%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Chicago Bears	West	1396	3.5	5.50	-2.00	13.04%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1321	2.5	4.06	-1.56	20.03%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1316	1.5	3.50	-2.00	11.19%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Baltimore Colts	West	1237	3	2.48	+0.52	82.84%	0	0	1	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	-	-	0-0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	-	-

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	-	-	-	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	-	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Los Angeles Rams	0-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.39%	—	1.39%	—	0.69%	0.69%	4.17%
7–13	1.39%	4.17%	4.86%	4.17%	0.69%	2.08%	—	17.36%
14–20	—	4.86%	4.17%	6.25%	4.86%	1.39%	3.47%	25.00%
21–27	1.39%	4.17%	6.25%	11.11%	1.39%	3.47%	0.69%	28.47%
28–34	—	0.69%	4.86%	1.39%	2.78%	1.39%	—	11.11%
35–41	0.69%	2.08%	1.39%	3.47%	1.39%	—	—	9.03%
42+	0.69%	—	3.47%	0.69%	—	—	—	4.86%
Total	4.17%	17.36%	25.00%	28.47%	11.11%	9.03%	4.86%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.51	21.51	+0.00
SD	11.23	11.23	17.11
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	62	62	+48
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	—	25.00%	25.00%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.17	29.17	-14.00
SD	6.81	13.24	15.79
CV	0.45	0.45	—
Max	27	45	+10
Min	2	9	-43

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	—	16.67%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.17	21.83	-3.67
SD	6.75	8.10	5.55
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	28	38	+4
Min	7	13	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	8.33%	58.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.83	28.08	-12.25
SD	8.08	10.32	14.16
CV	0.51	0.37	—
Max	28	56	+7
Min	0	17	-39

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.00	13.50	+15.50
SD	12.79	11.30	15.66
CV	0.44	0.84	—
Max	62	42	+48
Min	7	0	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.58	17.08	+5.50
SD	7.98	9.45	9.76
CV	0.35	0.55	—
Max	38	37	+19
Min	13	7	-13

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	28.17	-11.50
SD	10.76	10.57	16.90
CV	0.65	0.38	—
Max	37	48	+23
Min	0	14	-34

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.50	19.67	+10.83
SD	7.96	8.82	12.85
CV	0.26	0.45	—
Max	45	31	+43
Min	21	2	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.92	23.08	-8.17
SD	9.71	14.52	16.03
CV	0.65	0.63	—
Max	37	62	+14
Min	0	7	-48

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
35–41	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.33	17.92	+11.42
SD	15.17	12.61	21.35
CV	0.52	0.70	—
Max	56	37	+39
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.58	21.92	-4.33
SD	8.27	9.60	13.28
CV	0.47	0.44	—
Max	31	38	+17
Min	7	10	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	41.67%	16.67%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.00	19.75	+11.25
SD	10.77	7.09	13.76
CV	0.35	0.36	—
Max	48	30	+34
Min	10	7	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.33	17.92	-0.58
SD	7.19	9.21	11.16
CV	0.41	0.51	—
Max	28	30	+11
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.64	+0.3
Allowed	0.78	-0.5
Differential	0.82	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	10	7.82	+2.18
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.24	+1.76
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	9.28	+1.72
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7.5	6.92	+0.58
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5.42	+0.58

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	3	5.10	-2.10
2	Chicago Bears	3.5	5.50	-2.00
3	Chicago Cardinals	1.5	3.50	-2.00
4	Green Bay Packers	2.5	4.06	-1.56
5	Los Angeles Rams	8.5	8.69	-0.19

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	Sep 27 – Dec 6	1 in 22
2	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 16
3	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Oct 17 – Nov 21	1 in 14
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 7
5	Detroit Lions	6	Nov 7 – Dec 13	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	7	Sep 27 – Nov 8	1 in 35
2	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 18
3	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Nov 29 – Dec 6	1 in 13
4	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 18 – Nov 1	1 in 8
5	New York Giants	3	Sep 27 – Oct 11	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	76.63%	16.30%	4.93%	1.60%	0.48%	0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.58%	37.42%	24.99%	15.09%	7.76%	2.15%
Washington Redskins	5.82%	21.70%	26.57%	22.80%	16.11%	7.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.91%	13.64%	21.12%	25.61%	24.07%	12.67%
New York Giants	1.89%	9.42%	17.72%	24.60%	28.82%	17.55%
Chicago Cardinals	0.18%	1.52%	4.67%	10.30%	22.76%	60.58%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Los Angeles Rams	53.10%	28.14%	13.71%	4.28%	0.73%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	28.19%	33.91%	24.31%	10.59%	2.69%	0.32%
San Francisco 49ers	15.30%	26.96%	34.55%	17.58%	5.03%	0.58%
Chicago Bears	2.95%	8.89%	20.10%	41.41%	21.65%	5.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.45%	1.97%	6.51%	21.38%	47.63%	22.06%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	0.13%	0.81%	4.77%	22.27%	72.01%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	44.91%	27.71%	11.95%	7.27%	3.84%	2.21%	1.16%	0.54%	0.29%	0.10%	0.03%	-
Los Angeles Rams	26.81%	27.43%	18.22%	11.55%	7.46%	4.32%	2.20%	1.31%	0.47%	0.20%	0.03%	<0.01%
Detroit Lions	12.66%	17.39%	19.98%	15.63%	12.62%	8.97%	5.65%	3.80%	1.78%	1.10%	0.30%	0.11%
San Francisco 49ers	6.97%	10.28%	15.94%	15.15%	17.41%	13.00%	9.29%	6.28%	3.18%	1.80%	0.51%	0.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.72%	7.98%	13.75%	18.20%	14.66%	13.91%	10.13%	7.56%	5.07%	2.54%	1.17%	0.31%
Washington Redskins	1.70%	3.63%	6.98%	11.49%	12.65%	15.04%	13.63%	12.21%	10.25%	6.68%	4.05%	1.70%
Chicago Bears	0.75%	2.09%	4.56%	6.15%	9.82%	11.88%	16.06%	17.97%	12.52%	10.51%	5.01%	2.69%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.76%	1.90%	4.34%	7.21%	9.31%	12.41%	14.16%	14.30%	14.31%	10.73%	7.61%	2.95%
New York Giants	0.56%	1.20%	3.10%	5.03%	7.51%	10.31%	13.18%	14.70%	16.92%	13.08%	10.22%	4.19%
Green Bay Packers	0.12%	0.31%	0.85%	1.40%	2.92%	4.49%	8.12%	11.43%	16.65%	23.71%	15.95%	14.05%
Chicago Cardinals	0.03%	0.09%	0.28%	0.81%	1.54%	2.96%	5.02%	7.16%	12.59%	16.94%	31.28%	21.30%
Baltimore Colts	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.27%	0.53%	1.39%	2.74%	5.96%	12.62%	23.83%	52.51%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	76.63%	23.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.58%	87.42%
Washington Redskins	5.82%	94.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.91%	97.09%
New York Giants	1.89%	98.11%
Chicago Cardinals	0.18%	99.82%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	53.10%	46.90%
Detroit Lions	28.19%	71.81%
San Francisco 49ers	15.30%	84.70%
Chicago Bears	2.95%	97.05%
Green Bay Packers	0.45%	99.55%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	99.99%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+9.72%

Clear Edge

52.78%4.17%43.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge

18 Elo

0.056 points per Elo point

033.8950

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+3.82 points

Home-Tilted

-8+1.91+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 25% · Tough Road: 25% to 50% · Favored: 50% to 100% · Heavy Favorite: 100% and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.5

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

14%

Detroit Lions, 3rd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

44.2%

Tough Road

050.00%100%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.23 · As Expected: 1.23 to 1.69 · Elevated: 1.69 to 2.31 · High Variance: 2.31 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.4 · Close: 1.4 to 1.89 · Off Target: 1.89 to 2.46 · Well Off Target: 2.46 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.53 · As Expected: 0.53 to 0.88 · More Than Expected: 0.88 to 1.41 · Far More Than Expected: 1.41 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.49 wins

As Expected

01.544

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.92

Pinpoint

01.644

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

97.52%

Detroit Lions

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

11.19%

Chicago Cardinals

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Many Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

More Than Expected

00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.29

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.20

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

83%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

18%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

29%

Frequent

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.18

Highly Predictable

00.191

Matchup Imbalance

0.41

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.69

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Chalk Held

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Favorites Held

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.17 · Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.35 · Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.04

Misfit

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.14

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.150

Within Noise

00.1740.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	76.63%	42.99%
Los Angeles Rams	53.10%	26.69%
Detroit Lions	28.19%	13.78%
San Francisco 49ers	15.30%	7.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.58%	5.36%
Washington Redskins	5.82%	1.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.91%	0.65%
Chicago Bears	2.95%	0.53%
New York Giants	1.89%	0.40%
Green Bay Packers	0.45%	0.05%
Chicago Cardinals	0.18%	0.03%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Cardinals		60.0%<0.01%	9.8%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	15.3%0.07%	15.2%0.05%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	92.3%0.01%	85.5%2.30%	56.0%21.82%	93.2%0.31%	54.7%40.83%	54.2%11.36%
New York Giants		53.6%0.08%	20.7%0.47%	61.5%0.01%	18.5%0.91%	20.2%0.42%
Philadelphia Eagles	100.0%<0.01%	77.0%0.36%	41.7%3.60%	84.0%0.08%	41.6%6.73%	39.4%1.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers		61.5%0.09%	20.1%0.60%	80.0%0.01%	21.2%1.59%	19.6%0.61%
Washington Redskins		63.1%0.11%	27.9%1.65%	67.9%0.03%	25.6%2.98%	26.4%1.05%
Baltimore Colts								7.7%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears							40.0%<0.01%	14.5%2.30%	46.4%0.08%	23.0%0.36%	38.5%0.09%	36.9%0.11%
Detroit Lions							90.2%0.05%	44.0%21.82%	79.3%0.47%	58.3%3.60%	79.9%0.60%	72.1%1.65%
Green Bay Packers							50.0%<0.01%	6.8%0.31%	38.5%0.01%	16.0%0.08%	20.0%0.01%	32.1%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams							84.7%0.07%	45.3%40.83%	81.5%0.91%	58.4%6.73%	78.8%1.59%	74.4%2.98%
San Francisco 49ers							84.8%0.05%	45.8%11.36%	79.8%0.42%	60.6%1.81%	80.4%0.61%	73.6%1.05%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	55.82%
Detroit Lions	44.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	55.8%100.00%
Detroit Lions		44.2%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns (1st) 55.82% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.82%

Detroit Lions 44.18% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.18%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1275.00	1503.91	23.08%	72.94%	+30.35	1-0
1953-10-03	Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1305.35	1581.92	18.72%	77.80%	-12.61	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1292.74	1491.95	19.55%	76.88%	+22.54	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-37	1315.28	1367.51	35.54%	59.54%	-36.51	2-2
1953-10-25	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1278.77	1502.37	23.60%	72.36%	+47.62	3-2
1953-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 24-35	1326.39	1374.48	45.37%	49.44%	-31.99	3-3
1953-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1294.40	1568.25	13.84%	83.37%	-9.24	3-4
1953-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-45	1285.16	1633.54	9.60%	88.33%	-11.16	3-5
1953-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1274.00	1659.96	11.16%	86.49%	-6.63	3-6
1953-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-38	1267.37	1624.55	12.85%	84.53%	-11.16	3-7
1953-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 2-45	1256.21	1639.70	8.03%	90.19%	-10.94	3-8
1953-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-45	1245.27	1651.45	7.14%	91.25%	-8.23	3-9
1953-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-13	1503.91	1275.00	72.94%	23.08%	-30.34	0-1
1953-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1473.57	1409.73	51.70%	43.14%	+18.38	1-1
1953-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 14-16	1491.95	1292.74	76.88%	19.55%	-22.55	1-2
1953-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-35	1469.40	1554.98	40.12%	54.78%	-22.67	1-3
1953-10-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-38	1446.73	1651.41	19.07%	77.41%	-15.21	1-4
1953-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1431.52	1555.23	26.97%	68.67%	-18.29	1-5
1953-11-08	Green Bay Packers	T 21-21	1413.23	1406.47	53.22%	41.64%	-0.58	1-5
1953-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1412.65	1459.62	36.22%	58.82%	+21.40	2-5
1953-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1434.05	1594.15	30.56%	64.81%	-13.11	2-6
1953-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1420.94	1666.58	21.47%	74.72%	+26.88	3-6
1953-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1447.82	1621.78	21.84%	74.31%	-11.43	3-7
1953-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 17-24	1436.39	1275.62	72.90%	23.11%	-40.12	3-8
1953-09-27	Washington Redskins	L 13-24	1483.92	1475.16	53.51%	41.37%	-37.42	0-1
1953-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1446.50	1630.13	27.84%	67.73%	-26.70	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-31	1419.80	1503.36	31.61%	63.68%	-11.75	0-3
1953-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1408.05	1472.81	33.94%	61.22%	-27.22	0-4
1953-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-56	1380.83	1506.58	34.80%	60.31%	-46.56	0-5
1953-11-01	New York Giants	L 20-23	1334.27	1485.70	31.60%	63.70%	-11.74	0-6
1953-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-28	1322.53	1439.94	27.67%	67.92%	-19.68	0-7
1953-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1302.85	1663.66	12.62%	84.79%	+3.70	0-7
1953-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-38	1306.55	1644.70	10.10%	87.73%	-13.03	0-8
1953-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-27	1293.52	1763.15	5.10%	93.69%	-3.49	0-9
1953-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1290.03	1425.20	33.61%	61.57%	-14.41	0-10
1953-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1275.62	1436.39	23.11%	72.90%	+40.13	1-10
1953-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-0	1594.65	1445.21	63.44%	31.84%	+35.48	1-0
1953-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 27-7	1630.13	1446.50	67.73%	27.84%	+26.71	2-0
1953-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-13	1656.84	1487.79	73.79%	22.31%	+23.36	3-0
1953-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-14	1680.20	1529.56	63.59%	31.69%	+27.19	4-0
1953-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 7-0	1707.39	1500.03	70.53%	25.27%	+14.33	5-0
1953-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 27-3	1721.72	1454.75	82.84%	14.31%	+14.81	6-0
1953-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-16	1736.53	1451.84	84.18%	13.14%	+11.76	7-0
1953-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1748.29	1601.92	71.30%	24.56%	+7.44	8-0
1953-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-16	1755.73	1463.72	79.23%	17.46%	+7.42	9-0
1953-11-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-16	1763.15	1293.52	93.69%	5.10%	+3.48	10-0
1953-12-06	New York Giants	W 62-14	1766.63	1470.44	85.01%	12.43%	+18.13	11-0
1953-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-42	1784.76	1572.15	71.13%	24.72%	-57.38	11-1
1953-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-21	1550.12	1501.57	59.04%	36.01%	+31.80	1-0
1953-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1581.92	1305.35	77.80%	18.72%	+12.61	2-0
1953-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1594.53	1569.47	55.80%	39.13%	+14.49	3-0
1953-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-31	1609.02	1613.66	51.60%	43.24%	-37.75	3-1
1953-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-10	1571.27	1577.66	41.70%	53.17%	+22.43	4-1
1953-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-37	1593.70	1666.62	32.91%	62.30%	-25.45	4-2
1953-11-07	Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1568.25	1294.40	83.37%	13.84%	+9.24	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1577.49	1407.05	66.11%	29.35%	+16.66	6-2
1953-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1594.15	1434.05	64.81%	30.56%	+13.11	7-2
1953-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 34-15	1607.26	1360.33	81.21%	15.72%	+14.52	8-2
1953-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1621.78	1447.82	74.31%	21.84%	+11.44	9-2
1953-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 27-16	1633.22	1452.32	67.39%	28.15%	+20.02	10-2
1953-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-27	1445.21	1594.65	31.84%	63.44%	-35.48	0-1
1953-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1409.73	1473.57	43.14%	51.70%	-18.38	0-2
1953-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-38	1391.35	1589.82	26.21%	69.50%	-23.84	0-3
1953-10-18	Baltimore Colts	W 37-14	1367.51	1315.28	59.54%	35.54%	+36.51	1-3
1953-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-31	1404.02	1472.94	33.41%	61.77%	-29.54	1-4
1953-10-31	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-24	1374.48	1326.39	49.44%	45.37%	+31.99	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	T 21-21	1406.47	1413.23	41.64%	53.22%	+0.58	2-4
1953-11-15	Detroit Lions	L 7-14	1407.05	1577.49	29.35%	66.11%	-16.65	2-5
1953-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-37	1390.40	1594.48	25.61%	70.15%	-30.07	2-6
1953-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 15-34	1360.33	1607.26	15.72%	81.21%	-14.52	2-7
1953-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-48	1345.81	1635.71	12.82%	84.56%	-15.74	2-8
1953-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-33	1330.07	1650.64	11.03%	86.65%	-9.25	2-9
1953-09-27	New York Giants	W 21-7	1567.32	1555.99	53.87%	41.01%	+32.75	1-0
1953-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-31	1600.07	1559.22	48.40%	46.40%	-10.25	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-20	1589.82	1391.35	69.50%	26.21%	+23.84	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-19	1613.66	1609.02	43.24%	51.60%	+37.75	3-1
1953-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1651.41	1446.73	77.41%	19.07%	+15.21	4-1
1953-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 37-24	1666.62	1593.70	62.30%	32.91%	+25.45	5-1
1953-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1692.07	1573.51	68.05%	27.54%	-28.41	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 24-24	1663.66	1302.85	84.79%	12.62%	-3.70	5-2
1953-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-13	1659.96	1274.00	86.49%	11.16%	+6.62	6-2
1953-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1666.58	1420.94	74.72%	21.47%	-26.88	6-3
1953-12-05	Baltimore Colts	W 45-2	1639.70	1256.21	90.19%	8.03%	+10.94	7-3
1953-12-12	Green Bay Packers	W 33-17	1650.64	1330.07	86.65%	11.03%	+9.25	8-3
1953-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-21	1555.99	1567.32	41.01%	53.87%	-32.75	0-1
1953-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1523.24	1469.77	50.21%	44.60%	-33.59	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1489.65	1512.72	39.41%	55.52%	-16.84	0-3
1953-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-7	1472.81	1408.05	61.22%	33.94%	+27.22	1-3
1953-10-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-7	1500.03	1707.39	25.27%	70.53%	-14.33	1-4
1953-11-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 23-20	1485.70	1334.27	63.70%	31.60%	+11.74	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1497.44	1603.79	28.92%	66.56%	-29.75	2-5
1953-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-14	1467.69	1440.08	56.15%	38.79%	-23.63	2-6
1953-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1444.06	1438.22	53.09%	41.77%	-19.40	2-7
1953-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-28	1424.66	1657.73	22.67%	73.39%	+45.78	3-7
1953-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-62	1470.44	1766.63	12.43%	85.01%	-18.12	3-8
1953-12-13	Detroit Lions	L 16-27	1452.32	1633.22	28.15%	67.39%	-20.03	3-9
1953-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1515.10	1532.04	40.24%	54.66%	-27.18	0-1
1953-10-02	Washington Redskins	T 21-21	1487.92	1512.58	48.73%	46.08%	-0.13	0-1
1953-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-37	1487.79	1656.84	22.31%	73.79%	-23.37	0-2
1953-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-7	1464.42	1515.10	45.00%	49.82%	+42.16	1-2
1953-10-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 56-17	1506.58	1380.83	60.31%	34.80%	+46.57	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1553.15	1502.47	49.81%	45.00%	+50.64	3-2
1953-11-08	New York Giants	W 30-7	1603.79	1497.44	66.56%	28.92%	+29.75	4-2
1953-11-15	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1633.54	1285.16	88.33%	9.60%	+11.16	5-2
1953-11-21	Chicago Cardinals	W 38-0	1644.70	1306.55	87.73%	10.10%	+13.03	6-2
1953-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 28-37	1657.73	1424.66	73.39%	22.67%	-45.78	6-3
1953-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1611.95	1488.72	59.97%	35.12%	-39.80	6-4
1953-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-27	1572.15	1784.76	24.72%	71.13%	+57.38	7-4
1953-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1501.57	1550.12	36.01%	59.04%	-31.80	0-1
1953-10-03	New York Giants	W 24-14	1469.77	1523.24	44.60%	50.21%	+33.59	1-1
1953-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-28	1503.36	1419.80	63.68%	31.61%	+11.74	2-1
1953-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1515.10	1464.42	49.82%	45.00%	-42.16	2-2
1953-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1472.94	1404.02	61.77%	33.41%	+29.53	3-2
1953-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1502.47	1553.15	45.00%	49.81%	-50.63	3-3
1953-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-34	1451.84	1736.53	13.14%	84.18%	-11.76	3-4
1953-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1440.08	1467.69	38.79%	56.15%	+23.64	4-4
1953-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-20	1463.72	1755.73	17.46%	79.23%	-7.43	4-5
1953-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 9-17	1456.29	1457.62	52.07%	42.77%	-31.09	4-6
1953-12-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 21-17	1425.20	1290.03	61.57%	33.61%	+14.40	5-6
1953-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-13	1439.60	1528.51	30.97%	64.37%	+13.47	6-6
1953-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-21	1532.04	1515.10	54.66%	40.24%	+27.18	1-0
1953-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-30	1559.22	1600.07	46.40%	48.40%	+10.25	2-0
1953-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-24	1569.47	1594.53	39.13%	55.80%	-14.49	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1554.98	1469.40	54.78%	40.12%	+22.68	3-1
1953-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1577.66	1571.27	53.17%	41.70%	-22.43	3-2
1953-11-01	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1555.23	1431.52	68.67%	26.97%	+18.28	4-2
1953-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1573.51	1692.07	27.54%	68.05%	+28.41	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-23	1601.92	1748.29	24.56%	71.30%	-7.44	5-3
1953-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-7	1594.48	1390.40	70.15%	25.61%	+30.07	6-3
1953-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-21	1624.55	1267.37	84.53%	12.85%	+11.16	7-3
1953-12-06	Green Bay Packers	W 48-14	1635.71	1345.81	84.56%	12.82%	+15.74	8-3
1953-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1651.45	1245.27	91.25%	7.14%	+8.24	9-3
1953-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-13	1475.16	1483.92	41.37%	53.51%	+37.42	1-0
1953-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 21-21	1512.58	1487.92	46.08%	48.73%	+0.14	1-0
1953-10-11	New York Giants	W 13-9	1512.72	1489.65	55.52%	39.41%	+16.84	2-0
1953-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-30	1529.56	1680.20	31.69%	63.59%	-27.19	2-1
1953-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-27	1502.37	1278.77	72.36%	23.60%	-47.62	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-27	1454.75	1721.72	14.31%	82.84%	-14.81	2-3
1953-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1439.94	1322.53	67.92%	27.67%	+19.68	3-3
1953-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1459.62	1412.65	58.82%	36.22%	-21.40	3-4
1953-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 24-21	1438.22	1444.06	41.77%	53.09%	+19.40	4-4
1953-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-9	1457.62	1456.29	42.77%	52.07%	+31.10	5-4
1953-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-0	1488.72	1611.95	35.12%	59.97%	+39.79	6-4
1953-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-14	1528.51	1439.60	64.37%	30.97%	-13.46	6-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-12-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-17	1727.38	1653.24	55.77%	44.23%	-11.21	0-1
1953-12-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1653.24	1727.38	44.23%	55.77%	+11.21	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1953-10-11	19.55%	Baltimore Colts	1292.74	16	@ Chicago Bears	1491.95	14
2	1953-11-29	21.47%	@ Chicago Bears	1420.94	24	Los Angeles Rams	1666.58	21
3	1953-11-29	22.67%	@ New York Giants	1424.66	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1657.73	28
4	1953-09-27	23.08%	@ Baltimore Colts	1275.00	13	Chicago Bears	1503.91	9
5	1953-12-13	23.11%	Chicago Cardinals	1275.62	24	@ Chicago Bears	1436.39	17
6	1953-10-25	23.60%	@ Baltimore Colts	1278.77	27	Washington Redskins	1502.37	17
7	1953-12-13	24.72%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1572.15	42	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1784.76	27
8	1953-11-08	27.54%	San Francisco 49ers	1573.51	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1692.07	27
9	1953-12-13	30.97%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1439.60	14	@ Washington Redskins	1528.51	13
10	1953-12-06	35.12%	@ Washington Redskins	1488.72	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1611.95	0
11	1953-11-15	36.22%	Chicago Bears	1412.65	27	@ Washington Redskins	1459.62	24
12	1953-11-15	38.79%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1440.08	14	@ New York Giants	1467.69	10
13	1953-09-27	41.37%	Washington Redskins	1475.16	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1483.92	13
14	1953-10-25	41.70%	Detroit Lions	1571.27	14	@ San Francisco 49ers	1577.66	10
15	1953-11-22	41.77%	Washington Redskins	1438.22	24	@ New York Giants	1444.06	21
16	1953-11-29	42.77%	Washington Redskins	1457.62	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1456.29	9
17	1953-10-18	43.24%	Los Angeles Rams	1613.66	31	@ Detroit Lions	1609.02	19
18	1953-12-27 *	44.23%	@ Detroit Lions	1653.24	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1727.38	16
19	1953-10-03	44.60%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1469.77	24	New York Giants	1523.24	14
20	1953-10-17	45.00%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1464.42	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1515.10	7
21	1953-10-04	46.40%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1559.22	31	Los Angeles Rams	1600.07	30

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1953-12-13	57.38	@ Philadelphia Eagles	42	1572.15	24.72%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1784.76	71.13%
2	1953-11-01	50.64	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1553.15	49.81%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1502.47	45.00%
3	1953-10-25	47.62	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1278.77	23.60%	Washington Redskins	17	1502.37	72.36%
4	1953-10-25	46.57	Philadelphia Eagles	56	1506.58	60.31%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1380.83	34.80%
5	1953-11-29	45.78	@ New York Giants	37	1424.66	22.67%	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1657.73	73.39%
6	1953-10-17	42.16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1464.42	45.00%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1515.10	49.82%
7	1953-12-13	40.13	Chicago Cardinals	24	1275.62	23.11%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1436.39	72.90%
8	1953-12-06	39.80	@ Washington Redskins	10	1488.72	35.12%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1611.95	59.97%
9	1953-10-18	37.75	Los Angeles Rams	31	1613.66	43.24%	@ Detroit Lions	19	1609.02	51.60%
10	1953-09-27	37.42	Washington Redskins	24	1475.16	41.37%	@ Chicago Cardinals	13	1483.92	53.51%
11	1953-10-18	36.51	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1367.51	59.54%	Baltimore Colts	14	1315.28	35.54%
12	1953-09-27	35.48	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1594.65	63.44%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1445.21	31.84%
13	1953-10-03	33.59	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1469.77	44.60%	New York Giants	14	1523.24	50.21%
14	1953-09-27	32.75	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1567.32	53.87%	New York Giants	7	1555.99	41.01%
15	1953-10-31	31.99	Green Bay Packers	35	1374.48	49.44%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1326.39	45.37%
16	1953-09-27	31.80	@ Detroit Lions	38	1550.12	59.04%	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1501.57	36.01%
17	1953-11-29	31.10	Washington Redskins	17	1457.62	42.77%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1456.29	52.07%
18	1953-09-27	30.35	@ Baltimore Colts	13	1275.00	23.08%	Chicago Bears	9	1503.91	72.94%
19	1953-11-22	30.07	San Francisco 49ers	37	1594.48	70.15%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1390.40	25.61%
20	1953-11-08	29.75	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1603.79	66.56%	New York Giants	7	1497.44	28.92%
21	1953-10-24	29.54	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1472.94	61.77%	Green Bay Packers	14	1404.02	33.41%
22	1953-11-08	28.41	San Francisco 49ers	31	1573.51	27.54%	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1692.07	68.05%
23	1953-10-18	27.22	@ New York Giants	21	1472.81	61.22%	Chicago Cardinals	7	1408.05	33.94%
24	1953-10-18	27.19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1680.20	63.59%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1529.56	31.69%
25	1953-09-27	27.18	@ San Francisco 49ers	31	1532.04	54.66%	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1515.10	40.24%