1953 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Detroit Lions

3rd Title

Last Title: 1952

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1952

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2.22 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.78 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

2.23 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.73 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	1	0	.917	—	348	162	+186	8.78	+2.22
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	4	1	.625	3.5	352	215	+137	6.78	+0.72
3	Washington Redskins	6	5	1	.542	4.5	208	215	-7	5.84	+0.66
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6	0	.500	5	211	263	-52	5.84	+0.16
5	New York Giants	3	9	0	.250	8	179	277	-98	5.11	-2.11
6	Chicago Cardinals	1	10	1	.125	9.5	190	337	-147	3.73	-2.23

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	10	2	0	.833	—	271	205	+66	8.30	+1.70
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	3	0	.750	1	372	237	+135	7.00	+2.00
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	3	1	.708	1.5	366	236	+130	8.60	-0.10
4	Chicago Bears	3	8	1	.292	6.5	218	262	-44	5.07	-1.57
5	Baltimore Colts	3	9	0	.250	7	182	350	-168	2.49	+0.51
6	Green Bay Packers	2	9	1	.208	7.5	200	338	-138	4.45	-1.95

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

NFL Championship Game

Detroit Lions 17

Cleveland Browns (1st) 16

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1695	11	8.78	+2.22	98.41%	2	6	7	9	10	11	12
Detroit Lions	West	1662	10	8.30	+1.70	95.23%	2	5	7	8	9	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1658	8.5	8.60	-0.10	54.45%	3	6	7	8	9	11	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1629	9	7.00	+2.00	96.59%	1	4	6	7	8	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1599	7.5	6.78	+0.72	73.99%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
Washington Redskins	East	1493	6.5	5.84	+0.66	72.22%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1475	6	5.84	+0.16	72.16%	0	3	4	6	7	8	12
New York Giants	East	1444	3	5.11	-2.11	21.95%	0	2	4	5	6	8	10
Chicago Bears	West	1398	3.5	5.07	-1.57	20.94%	0	2	4	5	6	7	10
Green Bay Packers	West	1359	2.5	4.45	-1.95	13.96%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1338	1.5	3.73	-2.23	9.34%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Baltimore Colts	West	1252	3	2.49	+0.51	85.17%	0	0	1	2	3	4	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	0-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.78	+2.22
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.00	+2.00
3	Detroit Lions	10	8.30	+1.70
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7.5	6.78	+0.72
5	Washington Redskins	6.5	5.84	+0.66

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	1.5	3.73	-2.23
2	New York Giants	3	5.11	-2.11
3	Green Bay Packers	2.5	4.45	-1.95
4	Chicago Bears	3.5	5.07	-1.57
5	Los Angeles Rams	8.5	8.60	-0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	Sep 27 – Dec 6	1 in 46
2	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Oct 17 – Nov 21	1 in 20
3	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 18
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 9
5	Detroit Lions	6	Nov 7 – Dec 13	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	7	Sep 27 – Nov 8	1 in 39
2	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 14
3	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Nov 29 – Dec 6	1 in 10
4	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 18 – Nov 1	1 in 8
5	New York Giants	3	Sep 27 – Oct 11	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	19.07%	7.57%	3.13%	1.24%	0.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	31.60%	24.13%	16.26%	9.44%	3.32%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	19.05%	23.29%	23.78%	17.49%	9.47%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	18.46%	23.06%	22.66%	19.57%	10.39%
New York Giants	2.88%	9.68%	16.48%	22.40%	28.09%	20.47%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	2.14%	5.47%	11.77%	24.17%	56.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	32.29%	14.48%	4.11%	0.89%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	35.92%	18.59%	6.08%	1.49%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	23.19%	38.76%	18.47%	6.83%	0.90%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	5.83%	17.04%	37.82%	29.46%	8.40%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	2.66%	10.30%	27.85%	42.07%	16.47%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	0.11%	0.83%	5.67%	19.26%	74.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.33%	29.71%	14.02%	9.88%	5.63%	3.91%	2.09%	1.23%	0.74%	0.34%	0.08%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	29.72%	22.40%	19.22%	12.36%	7.27%	4.42%	2.29%	1.42%	0.47%	0.31%	0.11%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	22.19%	20.47%	20.71%	13.76%	9.44%	6.16%	3.30%	2.31%	0.92%	0.57%	0.14%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	6.35%	8.13%	13.81%	13.99%	18.22%	13.76%	10.18%	7.27%	4.20%	2.97%	0.81%	0.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.64%	8.84%	12.16%	15.97%	14.62%	13.35%	10.88%	8.09%	5.79%	3.48%	1.80%	0.38%
Washington Redskins	1.66%	3.63%	6.21%	10.58%	11.35%	14.42%	13.90%	12.36%	10.15%	7.88%	5.62%	2.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.55%	3.44%	6.09%	10.26%	11.60%	13.43%	13.78%	12.00%	11.34%	8.33%	6.12%	2.06%
New York Giants	0.66%	1.76%	3.30%	5.43%	7.50%	9.90%	12.67%	13.45%	15.51%	13.02%	11.83%	4.97%
Chicago Bears	0.48%	1.04%	2.80%	4.26%	7.64%	10.00%	13.55%	17.21%	15.02%	14.69%	8.31%	5.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.35%	0.36%	1.19%	2.33%	4.34%	6.25%	10.29%	13.42%	17.03%	20.97%	12.99%	10.48%
Chicago Cardinals	0.05%	0.18%	0.46%	1.08%	2.02%	3.86%	5.81%	8.25%	13.62%	16.29%	29.17%	19.21%
Baltimore Colts	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.10%	0.37%	0.54%	1.26%	2.99%	5.21%	11.15%	23.02%	55.27%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	31.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	84.75%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	93.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	94.14%
New York Giants	2.88%	97.12%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	99.62%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	51.84%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	62.17%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	88.15%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	98.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	99.35%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	99.94%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	35.30%
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	26.51%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	21.62%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	6.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	5.88%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	1.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	1.46%
New York Giants	2.88%	0.52%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	0.13%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	0.04%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				0.21%					0.08%	0.08%
Chicago Cardinals					0.02%		0.01%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%	0.81%			12.79%	0.31%	16.94%				4.42%
Detroit Lions			0.11%	13.38%				0.88%	3.98%	1.30%		1.97%
Green Bay Packers				0.04%				0.02%	0.03%	0.01%		0.03%
Los Angeles Rams			0.12%	16.50%				1.06%	4.28%	2.24%		2.31%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.02%			0.10%	0.01%	0.28%				0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.21%			2.15%	0.11%	2.79%				0.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.03%			0.38%	0.03%	0.75%				0.27%
San Francisco 49ers			0.11%	3.28%				0.40%	1.00%	0.77%		0.63%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.01%			0.77%	0.06%	0.88%				0.25%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	50.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns (1st)		49.91%
Detroit Lions	50.09%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Detroit Lions 50.09% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.09%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 49.91% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.91%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1275.00	1456.54	27.78%	67.06%	+18.70	1-0
1953-10-03	Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1293.70	1630.95	13.57%	81.36%	-6.27	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1287.43	1452.43	22.26%	72.60%	+14.33	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-37	1301.76	1404.82	29.03%	65.80%	-20.01	2-2
1953-10-25	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1281.75	1481.94	25.67%	69.17%	+30.50	3-2
1953-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 24-35	1312.25	1405.76	38.98%	55.83%	-18.37	3-3
1953-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1293.88	1610.79	10.68%	84.29%	-4.95	3-4
1953-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-45	1288.93	1595.10	11.28%	83.67%	-9.20	3-5
1953-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1279.73	1656.21	11.13%	83.82%	-4.61	3-6
1953-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-38	1275.12	1598.97	14.50%	80.42%	-8.73	3-7
1953-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 2-45	1266.39	1642.86	7.83%	87.19%	-7.53	3-8
1953-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-45	1258.86	1621.87	8.40%	86.61%	-6.87	3-9
1953-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-13	1456.54	1275.00	67.06%	27.78%	-18.70	0-1
1953-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1437.84	1436.30	42.78%	52.02%	+14.59	1-1
1953-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 14-16	1452.43	1287.43	72.60%	22.26%	-14.33	1-2
1953-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-35	1438.10	1549.22	36.60%	58.22%	-13.79	1-3
1953-10-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-38	1424.31	1648.07	16.95%	77.94%	-9.24	1-4
1953-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1415.07	1550.49	25.34%	69.50%	-11.57	1-5
1953-11-08	Green Bay Packers	T 21-21	1403.50	1424.14	49.30%	45.50%	-0.12	1-5
1953-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1403.38	1454.01	35.62%	59.19%	+14.32	2-5
1953-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1417.70	1625.90	24.80%	70.04%	-7.17	2-6
1953-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1410.53	1660.82	20.56%	74.30%	+17.96	3-6
1953-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1428.49	1642.90	17.73%	77.16%	-6.32	3-7
1953-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 17-24	1422.17	1313.53	66.46%	28.37%	-24.52	3-8
1953-09-27	Washington Redskins	L 13-24	1460.67	1463.77	51.80%	43.00%	-24.10	0-1
1953-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1436.57	1608.29	28.93%	65.90%	-18.59	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-31	1417.98	1522.33	28.88%	65.95%	-7.19	0-3
1953-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1410.79	1479.22	33.31%	61.51%	-17.83	0-4
1953-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-56	1392.96	1503.28	36.70%	58.11%	-32.66	0-5
1953-11-01	New York Giants	L 20-23	1360.30	1485.81	34.69%	60.12%	-8.58	0-6
1953-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-28	1351.72	1439.31	30.90%	63.92%	-14.70	0-7
1953-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1337.02	1658.47	14.67%	80.24%	+2.27	0-7
1953-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-38	1339.29	1604.30	13.87%	81.05%	-12.49	0-8
1953-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-27	1326.80	1710.71	7.52%	87.51%	-3.67	0-9
1953-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1323.13	1457.29	33.57%	61.25%	-9.60	0-10
1953-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1313.53	1422.17	28.37%	66.46%	+24.53	1-10
1953-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-0	1581.97	1462.62	59.31%	35.50%	+26.32	1-0
1953-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 27-7	1608.29	1436.57	65.90%	28.93%	+18.59	2-0
1953-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-13	1626.88	1493.03	69.32%	25.52%	+18.04	3-0
1953-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-14	1644.92	1500.42	62.56%	32.25%	+18.47	4-0
1953-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 7-0	1663.39	1497.04	65.26%	29.57%	+11.24	5-0
1953-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 27-3	1674.63	1451.44	77.89%	17.00%	+12.13	6-0
1953-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-16	1686.76	1483.13	76.23%	18.65%	+11.50	7-0
1953-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1698.26	1580.80	67.48%	27.35%	+5.57	8-0
1953-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-16	1703.83	1486.30	71.03%	23.81%	+6.88	9-0
1953-11-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-16	1710.71	1326.80	87.51%	7.52%	+3.67	10-0
1953-12-06	New York Giants	W 62-14	1714.38	1472.06	79.40%	15.50%	+15.66	11-0
1953-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-42	1730.04	1563.29	65.31%	29.52%	-35.28	11-1
1953-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-21	1613.00	1520.73	64.50%	30.33%	+17.95	1-0
1953-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1630.95	1293.70	81.36%	13.57%	+6.27	2-0
1953-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1637.22	1557.12	62.99%	31.83%	+7.90	3-0
1953-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-31	1645.12	1621.13	55.59%	39.22%	-26.94	3-1
1953-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-10	1618.18	1563.02	50.45%	44.36%	+12.53	4-1
1953-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-37	1630.71	1657.30	38.86%	55.94%	-19.92	4-2
1953-11-07	Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1610.79	1293.88	84.29%	10.68%	+4.95	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1615.74	1424.26	68.19%	26.64%	+10.16	6-2
1953-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1625.90	1417.70	70.04%	24.80%	+7.16	7-2
1953-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 34-15	1633.06	1390.37	79.43%	15.48%	+9.84	8-2
1953-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1642.90	1428.49	77.16%	17.73%	+6.32	9-2
1953-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 27-16	1649.22	1456.39	68.35%	26.49%	+12.66	10-2
1953-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-27	1462.62	1581.97	35.50%	59.31%	-26.32	0-1
1953-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1436.30	1437.84	52.02%	42.78%	-14.59	0-2
1953-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-38	1421.71	1604.23	27.66%	67.17%	-16.89	0-3
1953-10-18	Baltimore Colts	W 37-14	1404.82	1301.76	65.80%	29.03%	+20.01	1-3
1953-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-31	1424.83	1501.23	32.29%	62.53%	-19.07	1-4
1953-10-31	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-24	1405.76	1312.25	55.83%	38.98%	+18.38	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	T 21-21	1424.14	1403.50	45.50%	49.30%	+0.12	2-4
1953-11-15	Detroit Lions	L 7-14	1424.26	1615.74	26.64%	68.19%	-10.16	2-5
1953-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-37	1414.10	1575.23	30.20%	64.63%	-23.73	2-6
1953-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 15-34	1390.37	1633.06	15.48%	79.43%	-9.84	2-7
1953-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-48	1380.53	1607.70	16.68%	78.21%	-14.17	2-8
1953-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-33	1366.36	1650.40	12.62%	82.32%	-7.38	2-9
1953-09-27	New York Giants	W 21-7	1593.34	1529.03	60.98%	33.84%	+18.10	1-0
1953-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-31	1611.44	1549.92	51.35%	43.45%	-7.21	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-20	1604.23	1421.71	67.17%	27.66%	+16.90	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-19	1621.13	1645.12	39.22%	55.59%	+26.94	3-1
1953-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1648.07	1424.31	77.94%	16.95%	+9.23	4-1
1953-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 37-24	1657.30	1630.71	55.94%	38.86%	+19.92	5-1
1953-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1677.22	1562.05	67.22%	27.61%	-18.75	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 24-24	1658.47	1337.02	80.24%	14.67%	-2.26	5-2
1953-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-13	1656.21	1279.73	83.82%	11.13%	+4.61	6-2
1953-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1660.82	1410.53	74.30%	20.56%	-17.96	6-3
1953-12-05	Baltimore Colts	W 45-2	1642.86	1266.39	87.19%	7.83%	+7.54	7-3
1953-12-12	Green Bay Packers	W 33-17	1650.40	1366.36	82.32%	12.62%	+7.38	8-3
1953-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-21	1529.03	1593.34	33.84%	60.98%	-18.10	0-1
1953-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1510.93	1502.78	43.72%	51.08%	-19.54	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1491.39	1488.25	43.01%	51.80%	-12.17	0-3
1953-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-7	1479.22	1410.79	61.51%	33.31%	+17.82	1-3
1953-10-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-7	1497.04	1663.39	29.57%	65.26%	-11.23	1-4
1953-11-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 23-20	1485.81	1360.30	60.12%	34.69%	+8.58	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1494.39	1573.12	32.00%	62.82%	-21.99	2-5
1953-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-14	1472.40	1471.63	52.35%	42.46%	-14.67	2-6
1953-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1457.73	1439.69	54.76%	40.04%	-13.28	2-7
1953-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-28	1444.45	1616.79	28.85%	65.98%	+27.61	3-7
1953-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-62	1472.06	1714.38	15.50%	79.40%	-15.67	3-8
1953-12-13	Detroit Lions	L 16-27	1456.39	1649.22	26.49%	68.35%	-12.66	3-9
1953-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1511.22	1532.11	39.65%	55.16%	-17.81	0-1
1953-10-02	Washington Redskins	T 21-21	1493.41	1487.87	53.02%	41.79%	-0.38	0-1
1953-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-37	1493.03	1626.88	25.52%	69.32%	-18.03	0-2
1953-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-7	1475.00	1529.52	44.45%	50.36%	+28.28	1-2
1953-10-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 56-17	1503.28	1392.96	58.11%	36.70%	+32.66	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1535.94	1520.30	44.79%	50.02%	+37.18	3-2
1953-11-08	New York Giants	W 30-7	1573.12	1494.39	62.82%	32.00%	+21.98	4-2
1953-11-15	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1595.10	1288.93	83.67%	11.28%	+9.20	5-2
1953-11-21	Chicago Cardinals	W 38-0	1604.30	1339.29	81.05%	13.87%	+12.49	6-2
1953-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 28-37	1616.79	1444.45	65.98%	28.85%	-27.61	6-3
1953-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1589.18	1475.09	58.61%	36.20%	-25.89	6-4
1953-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-27	1563.29	1730.04	29.52%	65.31%	+35.28	7-4
1953-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1520.73	1613.00	30.33%	64.50%	-17.95	0-1
1953-10-03	New York Giants	W 24-14	1502.78	1510.93	51.08%	43.72%	+19.55	1-1
1953-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-28	1522.33	1417.98	65.95%	28.88%	+7.19	2-1
1953-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1529.52	1475.00	50.36%	44.45%	-28.29	2-2
1953-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1501.23	1424.83	62.53%	32.29%	+19.07	3-2
1953-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1520.30	1535.94	50.02%	44.79%	-37.17	3-3
1953-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-34	1483.13	1686.76	18.65%	76.23%	-11.50	3-4
1953-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1471.63	1472.40	42.46%	52.35%	+14.67	4-4
1953-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-20	1486.30	1703.83	23.81%	71.03%	-6.88	4-5
1953-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 9-17	1479.42	1452.96	55.93%	38.88%	-22.13	4-6
1953-12-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 21-17	1457.29	1323.13	61.25%	33.57%	+9.60	5-6
1953-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-13	1466.89	1500.99	37.84%	56.97%	+7.97	6-6
1953-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-21	1532.11	1511.22	55.16%	39.65%	+17.81	1-0
1953-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-30	1549.92	1611.44	43.45%	51.35%	+7.20	2-0
1953-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-24	1557.12	1637.22	31.83%	62.99%	-7.90	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1549.22	1438.10	58.22%	36.60%	+13.80	3-1
1953-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1563.02	1618.18	44.36%	50.45%	-12.53	3-2
1953-11-01	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1550.49	1415.07	69.50%	25.34%	+11.56	4-2
1953-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1562.05	1677.22	27.61%	67.22%	+18.75	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-23	1580.80	1698.26	27.35%	67.48%	-5.57	5-3
1953-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-7	1575.23	1414.10	64.63%	30.20%	+23.74	6-3
1953-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-21	1598.97	1275.12	80.42%	14.50%	+8.73	7-3
1953-12-06	Green Bay Packers	W 48-14	1607.70	1380.53	78.21%	16.68%	+14.17	8-3
1953-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1621.87	1258.86	86.61%	8.40%	+6.87	9-3
1953-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-13	1463.77	1460.67	43.00%	51.80%	+24.10	1-0
1953-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 21-21	1487.87	1493.41	41.79%	53.02%	+0.38	1-0
1953-10-11	New York Giants	W 13-9	1488.25	1491.39	51.80%	43.01%	+12.17	2-0
1953-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-30	1500.42	1644.92	32.25%	62.56%	-18.48	2-1
1953-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-27	1481.94	1281.75	69.17%	25.67%	-30.50	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-27	1451.44	1674.63	17.00%	77.89%	-12.13	2-3
1953-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1439.31	1351.72	63.92%	30.90%	+14.70	3-3
1953-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1454.01	1403.38	59.19%	35.62%	-14.32	3-4
1953-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 24-21	1439.69	1457.73	40.04%	54.76%	+13.27	4-4
1953-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-9	1452.96	1479.42	38.88%	55.93%	+22.13	5-4
1953-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-0	1475.09	1589.18	36.20%	58.61%	+25.90	6-4
1953-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-14	1500.99	1466.89	56.97%	37.84%	-7.97	6-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-12-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-17	1694.76	1661.88	49.85%	50.15%	-6.65	0-1
1953-12-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1661.88	1694.76	50.15%	49.85%	+6.65	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1953-11-29	20.56%	@ Chicago Bears	1410.53	24	Los Angeles Rams	1660.82	21
2	1953-10-11	22.26%	Baltimore Colts	1287.43	16	@ Chicago Bears	1452.43	14
3	1953-10-25	25.67%	@ Baltimore Colts	1281.75	27	Washington Redskins	1481.94	17
4	1953-11-08	27.61%	San Francisco 49ers	1562.05	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1677.22	27
5	1953-09-27	27.78%	@ Baltimore Colts	1275.00	13	Chicago Bears	1456.54	9
6	1953-12-13	28.37%	Chicago Cardinals	1313.53	24	@ Chicago Bears	1422.17	17
7	1953-11-29	28.85%	@ New York Giants	1444.45	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1616.79	28
8	1953-12-13	29.52%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1563.29	42	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1730.04	27
9	1953-11-15	35.62%	Chicago Bears	1403.38	27	@ Washington Redskins	1454.01	24
10	1953-12-06	36.20%	@ Washington Redskins	1475.09	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1589.18	0
11	1953-12-13	37.84%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1466.89	14	@ Washington Redskins	1500.99	13
12	1953-11-29	38.88%	Washington Redskins	1452.96	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1479.42	9
13	1953-10-18	39.22%	Los Angeles Rams	1621.13	31	@ Detroit Lions	1645.12	19
14	1953-11-22	40.04%	Washington Redskins	1439.69	24	@ New York Giants	1457.73	21
15	1953-11-15	42.46%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1471.63	14	@ New York Giants	1472.40	10
16	1953-10-04	42.78%	Chicago Bears	1437.84	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1436.30	13
17	1953-09-27	43.00%	Washington Redskins	1463.77	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1460.67	13
18	1953-10-04	43.45%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1549.92	31	Los Angeles Rams	1611.44	30
19	1953-10-17	44.45%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1475.00	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1529.52	7
20	1953-11-01	44.79%	Philadelphia Eagles	1535.94	35	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1520.30	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1953-11-01	37.18	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1535.94	44.79%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1520.30	50.02%
2	1953-12-13	35.28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	42	1563.29	29.52%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1730.04	65.31%
3	1953-10-25	32.66	Philadelphia Eagles	56	1503.28	58.11%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1392.96	36.70%
4	1953-10-25	30.50	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1281.75	25.67%	Washington Redskins	17	1481.94	69.17%
5	1953-10-17	28.29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1475.00	44.45%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1529.52	50.36%
6	1953-11-29	27.61	@ New York Giants	37	1444.45	28.85%	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1616.79	65.98%
7	1953-10-18	26.94	Los Angeles Rams	31	1621.13	39.22%	@ Detroit Lions	19	1645.12	55.59%
8	1953-09-27	26.32	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1581.97	59.31%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1462.62	35.50%
9	1953-12-06	25.90	@ Washington Redskins	10	1475.09	36.20%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1589.18	58.61%
10	1953-12-13	24.53	Chicago Cardinals	24	1313.53	28.37%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1422.17	66.46%
11	1953-09-27	24.10	Washington Redskins	24	1463.77	43.00%	@ Chicago Cardinals	13	1460.67	51.80%
12	1953-11-22	23.74	San Francisco 49ers	37	1575.23	64.63%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1414.10	30.20%
13	1953-11-29	22.13	Washington Redskins	17	1452.96	38.88%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1479.42	55.93%
14	1953-11-08	21.99	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1573.12	62.82%	New York Giants	7	1494.39	32.00%
15	1953-10-18	20.01	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1404.82	65.80%	Baltimore Colts	14	1301.76	29.03%
16	1953-11-01	19.92	@ Los Angeles Rams	37	1657.30	55.94%	Detroit Lions	24	1630.71	38.86%
17	1953-10-03	19.55	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1502.78	51.08%	New York Giants	14	1510.93	43.72%
18	1953-10-24	19.07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1501.23	62.53%	Green Bay Packers	14	1424.83	32.29%
19	1953-11-08	18.75	San Francisco 49ers	31	1562.05	27.61%	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1677.22	67.22%
20	1953-09-27	18.70	@ Baltimore Colts	13	1275.00	27.78%	Chicago Bears	9	1456.54	67.06%
21	1953-10-04	18.59	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1608.29	65.90%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1436.57	28.93%
22	1953-10-18	18.48	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1644.92	62.56%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1500.42	32.25%
23	1953-10-31	18.38	Green Bay Packers	35	1405.76	55.83%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1312.25	38.98%
24	1953-09-27	18.10	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1593.34	60.98%	New York Giants	7	1529.03	33.84%
25	1953-10-10	18.04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	37	1626.88	69.32%	Philadelphia Eagles	13	1493.03	25.52%