1952 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Detroit Lions

2nd Title

Last Title: 1935

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1951

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

2.21 wins above expected

9 wins · 6.79 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Texans (1st)

2.94 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.94 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	8	4	.667	-	310	213	+97	8.32	-0.32
2	New York Giants	7	5	.583	1	234	231	+3	7.67	-0.67
3	Philadelphia Eagles	7	5	.583	1	252	271	-19	6.16	+0.84
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	7	.417	3	300	273	+27	5.03	-0.03
5	Washington Redskins	4	8	.333	4	240	287	-47	4.60	-0.60
6	Chicago Cardinals	4	8	.333	4	172	221	-49	4.89	-0.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	9	3	.750	-	344	192	+152	6.79	+2.21
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	9	3	.750	-	349	234	+115	7.66	+1.34
3	San Francisco 49ers	7	5	.583	2	285	221	+64	6.71	+0.29
4	Green Bay Packers	6	6	.500	3	295	312	-17	3.96	+2.04
5	Chicago Bears	5	7	.417	4	245	326	-81	6.28	-1.28
6	Dallas Texans (1st)	1	11	.083	8	182	427	-245	3.94	-2.94

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Detroit Lions 31

Los Angeles Rams 21

Dec 21

NFL Championship Game

Detroit Lions 17

Cleveland Browns (1st) 7

Dec 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1642	8	8.32	-0.32	54.20%	0	6	7	8	9	11	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1601	9	7.66	+1.34	87.98%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
New York Giants	East	1579	7	7.67	-0.67	46.07%	0	5	7	8	9	10	12
Detroit Lions	West	1553	9	6.79	+2.21	95.67%	1	4	6	7	8	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1531	7	6.71	+0.29	68.87%	0	4	6	7	8	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1503	7	6.16	+0.84	79.96%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Chicago Bears	West	1484	5	6.28	-1.28	33.47%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1477	5	5.03	-0.03	62.93%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Chicago Cardinals	East	1447	4	4.89	-0.89	42.77%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Washington Redskins	East	1429	4	4.60	-0.60	49.86%	0	2	3	5	6	7	12
Green Bay Packers	West	1385	6	3.96	+2.04	94.52%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Dallas Texans (1st)	West	1367	1	3.94	-2.94	5.79%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-
Cleveland Browns (1st)	-	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
New York Giants	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	-	-	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Dallas Texans (1st)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	-	-	-	-	-
Dallas Texans (1st)	-	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	-
Detroit Lions	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	-	-	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
San Francisco 49ers	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.69%	2.78%	1.39%	2.08%	0.69%	—	7.64%
7–13	0.69%	4.17%	2.08%	2.08%	2.08%	1.39%	2.08%	14.58%
14–20	2.78%	2.08%	5.56%	5.56%	1.39%	3.47%	2.08%	22.92%
21–27	1.39%	2.08%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	1.39%	3.47%	25.00%
28–34	2.08%	2.08%	1.39%	2.78%	4.17%	1.39%	—	13.89%
35–41	0.69%	1.39%	3.47%	1.39%	1.39%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	2.08%	2.08%	3.47%	—	—	—	7.64%
Total	7.64%	14.58%	22.92%	25.00%	13.89%	8.33%	7.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.28	22.28	+0.00
SD	11.98	11.98	18.09
CV	0.54	0.54	—
Max	63	63	+56
Min	0	0	-56

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.42	27.17	-6.75
SD	8.68	12.22	14.10
CV	0.43	0.45	—
Max	38	45	+18
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	33.33%	8.33%	25.00%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.33	18.42	-4.08
SD	9.33	9.15	10.47
CV	0.65	0.50	—
Max	28	34	+11
Min	0	6	-22

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	8.33%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.83	17.75	+8.08
SD	14.35	10.45	16.67
CV	0.56	0.59	—
Max	49	37	+42
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—	33.33%	—	33.33%	33.33%	100%

Dallas Texans (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.17	35.58	-20.42
SD	6.85	8.71	10.19
CV	0.45	0.24	—
Max	27	48	+4
Min	6	23	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	25.00%	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.67	16.00	+12.67
SD	17.46	7.46	19.95
CV	0.61	0.47	—
Max	52	28	+35
Min	0	6	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	16.67%	—	25.00%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.58	26.00	-1.42
SD	10.43	15.54	18.54
CV	0.42	0.60	—
Max	42	52	+28
Min	12	3	-35

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.08	19.50	+9.58
SD	11.66	9.36	16.51
CV	0.40	0.48	—
Max	45	37	+26
Min	7	6	-30

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
14–20	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.50	19.25	+0.25
SD	10.08	16.42	21.32
CV	0.52	0.85	—
Max	37	63	+24
Min	3	6	-56

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	33.33%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	22.58	-1.58
SD	11.43	11.10	16.92
CV	0.54	0.49	—
Max	38	49	+18
Min	7	7	-42

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	8.33%	25.00%	50.00%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	22.75	+2.25
SD	13.90	8.76	19.79
CV	0.56	0.39	—
Max	63	31	+56
Min	6	7	-25

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	16.67%	—	41.67%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.75	18.42	+5.33
SD	12.57	10.46	18.67
CV	0.53	0.57	—
Max	48	35	+28
Min	7	0	-26

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	33.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	41.67%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	33.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.00	23.92	-3.92
SD	6.92	11.34	11.83
CV	0.35	0.47	—
Max	28	48	+16
Min	6	7	-24

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.67	+0.3
Allowed	0.62	-0.3
Differential	0.86	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	9	6.79	+2.21
2	Green Bay Packers	6	3.96	+2.04
3	Los Angeles Rams	9	7.66	+1.34
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	6.16	+0.84
5	San Francisco 49ers	7	6.71	+0.29

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Texans (1st)	1	3.94	-2.94
2	Chicago Bears	5	6.28	-1.28
3	Chicago Cardinals	4	4.89	-0.89
4	New York Giants	7	7.67	-0.67
5	Washington Redskins	4	4.60	-0.60

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Green Bay Packers	4	Nov 2 – Nov 23	1 in 85
2	Los Angeles Rams	8	Oct 26 – Dec 14	1 in 29
3	Detroit Lions	5	Oct 19 – Nov 16	1 in 25
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	Sep 28 – Oct 26	1 in 16
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Texans (1st)	9	Sep 28 – Nov 23	1 in 47
2	Chicago Cardinals	5	Oct 26 – Nov 23	1 in 14
3	Washington Redskins	6	Oct 26 – Nov 30	1 in 11
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 11
5	New York Giants	2	Oct 19 – Oct 26	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	46.73%	29.20%	13.93%	6.44%	2.74%	0.95%
New York Giants	36.61%	31.97%	17.31%	8.44%	4.10%	1.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.33%	18.27%	26.47%	21.47%	15.10%	9.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.13%	8.28%	16.26%	22.72%	24.98%	24.62%
Chicago Cardinals	2.49%	6.94%	14.16%	21.30%	26.30%	28.81%
Washington Redskins	1.70%	5.35%	11.87%	19.63%	26.78%	34.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Los Angeles Rams	39.19%	25.92%	17.81%	10.97%	4.66%	1.45%
San Francisco 49ers	23.74%	24.12%	21.92%	17.65%	9.12%	3.44%
Detroit Lions	20.28%	23.67%	22.95%	19.29%	9.87%	3.93%
Chicago Bears	14.43%	19.63%	22.82%	22.90%	13.84%	6.38%
Green Bay Packers	1.26%	3.55%	7.71%	15.12%	32.22%	40.15%
Dallas Texans (1st)	1.10%	3.10%	6.79%	14.07%	30.29%	44.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	31.61%	19.20%	15.91%	10.63%	8.02%	5.37%	3.81%	2.40%	1.60%	0.82%	0.48%	0.14%
New York Giants	20.78%	17.68%	15.88%	13.86%	9.29%	8.01%	5.16%	3.90%	2.51%	1.58%	0.91%	0.45%
Los Angeles Rams	18.48%	18.88%	14.59%	12.95%	10.24%	8.19%	6.08%	4.70%	2.67%	1.83%	0.92%	0.46%
San Francisco 49ers	8.66%	12.62%	11.98%	12.85%	11.15%	11.23%	8.97%	8.60%	5.37%	4.51%	2.50%	1.56%
Detroit Lions	8.31%	10.99%	11.67%	12.62%	12.30%	11.34%	9.94%	8.69%	5.81%	4.34%	2.50%	1.49%
Chicago Bears	4.61%	8.28%	9.38%	11.03%	11.43%	11.85%	11.06%	10.85%	7.68%	6.75%	4.20%	2.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.14%	5.99%	8.67%	10.15%	12.18%	13.03%	11.65%	10.31%	8.53%	6.75%	5.30%	3.29%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.46%	2.05%	4.07%	4.55%	7.45%	8.39%	11.13%	11.91%	13.21%	12.81%	13.04%	9.93%
Chicago Cardinals	0.92%	1.78%	3.17%	4.18%	6.64%	7.59%	10.62%	11.05%	14.29%	13.20%	14.92%	11.65%
Washington Redskins	0.58%	1.17%	2.34%	3.25%	5.26%	6.65%	9.34%	10.96%	14.14%	13.90%	17.11%	15.31%
Green Bay Packers	0.23%	0.71%	1.22%	2.10%	3.17%	4.33%	6.31%	8.62%	12.43%	16.93%	18.07%	25.87%
Dallas Texans (1st)	0.22%	0.64%	1.12%	1.83%	2.87%	4.02%	5.93%	8.01%	11.77%	16.56%	20.07%	26.96%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	46.73%	53.27%
New York Giants	36.61%	63.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.33%	90.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.13%	96.87%
Chicago Cardinals	2.49%	97.51%
Washington Redskins	1.70%	98.30%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	39.19%	60.81%
San Francisco 49ers	23.74%	76.26%
Detroit Lions	20.28%	79.72%
Chicago Bears	14.43%	85.57%
Green Bay Packers	1.26%	98.74%
Dallas Texans (1st)	1.10%	98.90%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+0.00%

No Edge

50.00%50.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.

16 Elo

0.064 points per Elo point

040

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.86 points

Lean Home

-8+0.00+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

5.4

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

Detroit Lions, 5th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.31 · As Expected: 1.31 to 1.81 · Elevated: 1.81 to 2.46 · High Variance: 2.46 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.84 · Close: 1.84 to 2.49 · Off Target: 2.49 to 3.24 · Well Off Target: 3.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.86 · As Expected: 0.86 to 1.43 · More Than Expected: 1.43 to 2.28 · Far More Than Expected: 2.28 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.40 wins

As Expected

01.644

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.67

Pinpoint

02.165

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.67%

Detroit Lions

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

5.79%

Dallas Texans (1st)

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

As Expected

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.87

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

66%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

83%

Lopsided

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

18%

Mostly Decisive

0%13%100%

Blowouts

Expected

38%

Routine

0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.22

Predictable

00.221

Matchup Imbalance

0.28

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.75

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.79

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

35%

As Expected

0%36%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.33 · Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.35

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.13

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.085

Within Noise

00.1640.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	46.73%	29.24%
Los Angeles Rams	39.19%	20.33%
New York Giants	36.61%	19.45%
San Francisco 49ers	23.74%	9.79%
Detroit Lions	20.28%	9.06%
Chicago Bears	14.43%	4.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.33%	3.99%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.13%	1.32%
Chicago Cardinals	2.49%	0.83%
Washington Redskins	1.70%	0.55%
Green Bay Packers	1.26%	0.32%
Dallas Texans (1st)	1.10%	0.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Texans (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	46.1%0.15%	64.3%0.04%	34.9%0.56%	48.7%0.04%	26.2%1.05%	37.3%0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	72.3%7.11%	82.2%0.62%	63.0%8.82%	79.9%0.67%	55.6%17.27%	64.5%12.24%
New York Giants	64.3%5.17%	75.5%0.29%	53.4%7.99%	73.1%0.39%	46.5%15.18%	56.5%7.59%
Philadelphia Eagles	52.9%1.21%	69.9%0.08%	42.8%1.94%	61.5%0.08%	35.6%3.79%	48.0%2.22%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.7%0.54%	69.0%0.04%	41.4%0.60%	64.1%0.06%	34.5%1.15%	47.0%0.75%
Washington Redskins	46.7%0.25%	55.6%0.02%	31.7%0.38%	63.6%0.01%	25.3%0.76%	34.8%0.29%
Chicago Bears							53.9%0.15%	27.7%7.11%	35.7%5.17%	47.1%1.21%	51.3%0.54%	53.3%0.25%
Dallas Texans (1st)							35.7%0.04%	17.8%0.62%	24.5%0.29%	30.1%0.08%	31.0%0.04%	44.4%0.02%
Detroit Lions							65.1%0.56%	37.0%8.82%	46.6%7.99%	57.2%1.94%	58.6%0.60%	68.3%0.38%
Green Bay Packers							51.3%0.04%	20.1%0.67%	26.9%0.39%	38.5%0.08%	35.9%0.06%	36.4%0.01%
Los Angeles Rams							73.8%1.05%	44.4%17.27%	53.5%15.18%	64.4%3.79%	65.5%1.15%	74.7%0.76%
San Francisco 49ers							62.7%0.65%	35.5%12.24%	43.5%7.59%	52.0%2.22%	53.0%0.75%	65.2%0.29%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.46%
Detroit Lions	37.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Cleveland Browns (1st)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	62.5%100.00%
Detroit Lions		37.5%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Cleveland Browns (1st) 62.46% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.46%

Detroit Lions 37.54% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.54%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1952-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1504.12	1370.51	67.84%	31.29%	+2.32	1-0
1952-10-05	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 10-21	1506.44	1450.14	57.54%	41.50%	-4.46	1-1
1952-10-12	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 38-20	1501.98	1396.57	64.23%	34.87%	+3.47	2-1
1952-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-40	1505.45	1537.48	44.92%	54.11%	-5.16	2-2
1952-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-31	1500.29	1574.41	39.04%	60.01%	-4.49	2-3
1952-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1495.80	1546.17	42.33%	56.71%	+2.30	3-3
1952-11-09	Green Bay Packers	L 28-41	1498.10	1374.81	66.54%	32.58%	-5.61	3-4
1952-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-40	1492.49	1584.16	36.68%	62.40%	-3.44	3-5
1952-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-23	1489.05	1542.95	41.84%	57.20%	+1.34	4-5
1952-11-27	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	L 23-27	1490.39	1370.83	66.07%	33.05%	-3.09	4-6
1952-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-45	1487.30	1545.00	41.30%	57.74%	-4.75	4-7
1952-12-14	Chicago Cardinals	W 10-7	1482.55	1449.12	54.30%	44.72%	+1.82	5-7
1952-09-29	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1455.06	1434.07	52.53%	46.50%	-4.92	0-1
1952-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 21-10	1450.14	1506.44	41.50%	57.54%	+4.46	1-1
1952-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1454.60	1433.59	52.53%	46.49%	+3.62	2-1
1952-10-19	@ New York Giants	W 24-23	1458.22	1596.87	30.68%	68.47%	+1.60	3-1
1952-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-34	1459.82	1461.81	49.22%	49.80%	-2.83	3-2
1952-11-02	New York Giants	L 6-28	1456.99	1592.30	31.08%	68.05%	-3.42	3-3
1952-11-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-28	1453.57	1641.96	24.98%	74.26%	-2.27	3-4
1952-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-10	1451.30	1500.62	42.48%	56.56%	-1.73	3-5
1952-11-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-17	1449.57	1460.42	47.95%	51.07%	-1.94	3-6
1952-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-22	1447.63	1506.90	41.09%	57.96%	+3.32	4-6
1952-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-10	1450.95	1642.81	24.61%	74.63%	-1.83	4-7
1952-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1449.12	1482.55	44.72%	54.30%	-1.82	4-8
1952-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-7	1639.17	1585.13	57.22%	41.82%	+5.37	1-0
1952-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-20	1644.54	1467.33	73.02%	26.19%	+0.61	2-0
1952-10-12	New York Giants	L 9-17	1645.15	1593.10	56.94%	42.09%	-3.77	2-1
1952-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-7	1641.38	1500.49	68.74%	30.40%	+4.63	3-1
1952-10-26	Washington Redskins	W 19-15	1646.01	1432.53	76.90%	22.39%	+1.05	4-1
1952-11-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-17	1647.06	1529.55	65.80%	33.31%	-5.10	4-2
1952-11-09	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-13	1641.96	1453.57	74.26%	24.98%	+2.27	5-2
1952-11-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-28	1644.23	1461.02	73.69%	25.54%	+0.60	6-2
1952-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-28	1644.83	1502.34	68.94%	30.21%	-4.56	6-3
1952-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 48-24	1640.27	1423.21	77.26%	22.03%	+2.54	7-3
1952-12-07	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 10-0	1642.81	1450.95	74.63%	24.61%	+1.82	8-3
1952-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 34-37	1644.63	1576.16	59.24%	39.81%	-2.40	8-4
1952-09-28	New York Giants	L 6-24	1402.71	1586.26	25.50%	73.73%	-2.54	0-1
1952-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-37	1400.17	1527.80	32.03%	67.09%	-3.60	0-2
1952-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-38	1396.57	1501.98	34.87%	64.23%	-3.47	0-3
1952-10-18	Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1393.10	1372.81	52.43%	46.60%	-3.89	0-4
1952-10-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-48	1389.21	1542.64	28.91%	70.26%	-3.52	0-5
1952-11-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-42	1385.69	1578.89	24.46%	74.78%	-2.70	0-6
1952-11-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-27	1382.99	1581.59	23.90%	75.35%	-2.57	0-7
1952-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-43	1380.42	1539.32	28.27%	70.91%	-3.63	0-8
1952-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-42	1376.79	1387.17	48.02%	51.00%	-5.96	0-9
1952-11-27	Chicago Bears	W 27-23	1370.83	1490.39	33.05%	66.07%	+3.09	1-9
1952-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-38	1373.92	1503.58	31.78%	67.35%	-3.07	1-10
1952-12-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-41	1370.85	1549.75	26.01%	73.21%	-3.61	1-11
1952-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-17	1529.82	1523.38	50.44%	48.58%	-4.42	0-1
1952-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-14	1525.40	1579.76	41.77%	57.27%	+2.32	1-1
1952-10-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-28	1527.72	1531.41	48.98%	50.04%	-6.07	1-2
1952-10-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-16	1521.65	1578.22	41.46%	57.58%	+3.81	2-2
1952-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 52-17	1525.46	1376.69	69.70%	29.46%	+4.09	3-2
1952-11-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-6	1529.55	1647.06	33.31%	65.80%	+5.10	4-2
1952-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-6	1534.65	1465.68	59.30%	39.75%	+4.67	5-2
1952-11-16	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 43-13	1539.32	1380.42	70.91%	28.27%	+3.63	6-2
1952-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-24	1542.95	1489.05	57.20%	41.84%	-1.34	6-3
1952-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 48-24	1541.61	1393.13	69.67%	29.49%	+3.39	7-3
1952-12-07	Chicago Bears	W 45-21	1545.00	1487.30	57.74%	41.30%	+4.75	8-3
1952-12-13	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 41-6	1549.75	1370.85	73.21%	26.01%	+3.61	9-3
1952-09-28	Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1370.51	1504.12	31.29%	67.84%	-2.32	0-1
1952-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 35-20	1368.19	1438.99	39.50%	59.56%	+5.39	1-1
1952-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-30	1373.58	1577.44	23.36%	75.91%	-0.77	1-2
1952-10-18	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	W 24-14	1372.81	1393.10	46.60%	52.43%	+3.88	2-2
1952-10-26	Detroit Lions	L 17-52	1376.69	1525.46	29.46%	69.70%	-4.09	2-3
1952-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 12-10	1372.60	1498.83	32.21%	66.92%	+2.21	3-3
1952-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-28	1374.81	1498.10	32.58%	66.54%	+5.61	4-3
1952-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 17-3	1380.42	1598.69	21.91%	77.38%	+6.75	5-3
1952-11-23	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 42-14	1387.17	1376.79	51.00%	48.02%	+5.96	6-3
1952-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-48	1393.13	1541.61	29.49%	69.67%	-3.39	6-4
1952-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-45	1389.74	1596.28	23.08%	76.19%	-2.30	6-5
1952-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1387.44	1528.56	30.38%	68.77%	-2.26	6-6
1952-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-37	1585.13	1639.17	41.82%	57.22%	-5.37	0-1
1952-10-03	Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1579.76	1525.40	57.27%	41.77%	-2.32	0-2
1952-10-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-28	1577.44	1373.58	75.91%	23.36%	+0.78	1-2
1952-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-24	1578.22	1521.65	57.58%	41.46%	-3.81	1-3
1952-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1574.41	1500.29	60.01%	39.04%	+4.48	2-3
1952-11-02	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 42-20	1578.89	1385.69	74.78%	24.46%	+2.70	3-3
1952-11-09	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	W 27-6	1581.59	1382.99	75.35%	23.90%	+2.57	4-3
1952-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-24	1584.16	1492.49	62.40%	36.68%	+3.44	5-3
1952-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-9	1587.60	1542.85	55.91%	43.12%	+5.16	6-3
1952-11-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-21	1592.76	1537.69	57.37%	41.67%	+3.52	7-3
1952-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 45-27	1596.28	1389.74	76.19%	23.08%	+2.30	8-3
1952-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-14	1598.58	1479.77	65.97%	33.14%	+2.91	9-3
1952-09-28	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	W 24-6	1586.26	1402.71	73.73%	25.50%	+2.54	1-0
1952-10-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-7	1588.80	1502.43	61.69%	37.38%	+4.30	2-0
1952-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-9	1593.10	1645.15	42.09%	56.94%	+3.77	3-0
1952-10-19	Chicago Cardinals	L 23-24	1596.87	1458.22	68.47%	30.68%	-1.60	3-1
1952-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1595.27	1495.87	63.43%	35.65%	-2.97	3-2
1952-11-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 28-6	1592.30	1456.99	68.05%	31.08%	+3.43	4-2
1952-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-14	1595.73	1543.87	56.92%	42.12%	+2.96	5-2
1952-11-16	Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1598.69	1380.42	77.38%	21.91%	-6.76	5-3
1952-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1591.93	1424.49	71.91%	27.29%	+1.28	6-3
1952-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-63	1593.21	1462.37	67.50%	31.63%	-11.80	6-4
1952-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1581.41	1420.68	71.13%	28.06%	-5.25	6-5
1952-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-34	1576.16	1644.63	39.81%	59.24%	+2.40	7-5
1952-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-25	1499.83	1469.93	53.80%	45.22%	+2.60	1-0
1952-10-04	New York Giants	L 7-31	1502.43	1588.80	37.38%	61.69%	-4.30	1-1
1952-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-21	1498.13	1466.72	54.02%	45.01%	+2.36	2-1
1952-10-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-49	1500.49	1641.38	30.40%	68.74%	-4.62	2-2
1952-10-26	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1495.87	1595.27	35.65%	63.43%	+2.96	3-2
1952-11-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-12	1498.83	1372.60	66.92%	32.21%	-2.21	3-3
1952-11-09	Washington Redskins	W 38-20	1496.62	1430.43	58.92%	40.13%	+4.00	4-3
1952-11-16	Chicago Cardinals	W 10-7	1500.62	1451.30	56.56%	42.48%	+1.72	5-3
1952-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-20	1502.34	1644.83	30.21%	68.94%	+4.56	6-3
1952-11-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 22-28	1506.90	1447.63	57.96%	41.09%	-3.32	6-4
1952-12-07	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 38-21	1503.58	1373.92	67.35%	31.78%	+3.07	7-4
1952-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-27	1506.65	1425.93	60.92%	38.14%	-3.49	7-5
1952-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-31	1469.93	1499.83	45.22%	53.80%	-2.60	0-1
1952-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-21	1467.33	1644.54	26.19%	73.02%	-0.61	0-2
1952-10-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-26	1466.72	1498.13	45.01%	54.02%	-2.36	0-3
1952-10-19	Washington Redskins	L 24-28	1464.36	1429.98	54.44%	44.59%	-2.55	0-4
1952-10-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 34-28	1461.81	1459.82	49.80%	49.22%	+2.82	1-4
1952-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1464.63	1431.48	54.27%	44.76%	+1.05	2-4
1952-11-09	Detroit Lions	L 6-31	1465.68	1534.65	39.75%	59.30%	-4.66	2-5
1952-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 28-29	1461.02	1644.23	25.54%	73.69%	-0.60	2-6
1952-11-23	Chicago Cardinals	W 17-14	1460.42	1449.57	51.07%	47.95%	+1.95	3-6
1952-11-30	New York Giants	W 63-7	1462.37	1593.21	31.63%	67.50%	+11.80	4-6
1952-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1474.17	1534.16	40.99%	58.06%	+5.60	5-6
1952-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-28	1479.77	1598.58	33.14%	65.97%	-2.91	5-7
1952-09-28	Detroit Lions	W 17-3	1523.38	1529.82	48.58%	50.44%	+4.42	1-0
1952-10-05	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	W 37-14	1527.80	1400.17	67.09%	32.03%	+3.61	2-0
1952-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-0	1531.41	1527.72	50.04%	48.98%	+6.07	3-0
1952-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 40-16	1537.48	1505.45	54.11%	44.92%	+5.16	4-0
1952-10-26	Dallas Texans (1st)	W 48-21	1542.64	1389.21	70.26%	28.91%	+3.53	5-0
1952-11-02	Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1546.17	1495.80	56.71%	42.33%	-2.30	5-1
1952-11-09	@ New York Giants	L 14-23	1543.87	1595.73	42.12%	56.92%	-2.96	5-2
1952-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1540.91	1426.43	65.41%	33.70%	+1.94	6-2
1952-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-35	1542.85	1587.60	43.12%	55.91%	-5.16	6-3
1952-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-34	1537.69	1592.76	41.67%	57.37%	-3.53	6-4
1952-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1534.16	1474.17	58.06%	40.99%	-5.60	6-5
1952-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1528.56	1387.44	68.77%	30.38%	+2.26	7-5
1952-09-29	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 23-7	1434.07	1455.06	46.50%	52.53%	+4.92	1-0
1952-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-35	1438.99	1368.19	59.56%	39.50%	-5.40	1-1
1952-10-12	Chicago Cardinals	L 6-17	1433.59	1454.60	46.49%	52.53%	-3.61	1-2
1952-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-24	1429.98	1464.36	44.59%	54.44%	+2.55	2-2
1952-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 15-19	1432.53	1646.01	22.39%	76.90%	-1.05	2-3
1952-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-24	1431.48	1464.63	44.76%	54.27%	-1.05	2-4
1952-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-38	1430.43	1496.62	40.13%	58.92%	-4.00	2-5
1952-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-23	1426.43	1540.91	33.70%	65.41%	-1.94	2-6
1952-11-23	New York Giants	L 10-14	1424.49	1591.93	27.29%	71.91%	-1.28	2-7
1952-11-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-48	1423.21	1640.27	22.03%	77.26%	-2.53	2-8
1952-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 27-17	1420.68	1581.41	28.06%	71.13%	+5.25	3-8
1952-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1425.93	1506.65	38.14%	60.92%	+3.49	4-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1952-12-28	Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1642.23	1557.54	61.95%	38.05%	-4.54	0-1
1952-12-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-21	1553.36	1601.49	43.12%	56.88%	+4.18	1-0
1952-12-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-7	1557.54	1642.23	38.05%	61.95%	+4.54	2-0
1952-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-31	1601.49	1553.36	56.88%	43.12%	-4.17	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1952-11-16	21.91%	Green Bay Packers	1380.42	17	@ New York Giants	1598.69	3
2	1952-12-07	28.06%	Washington Redskins	1420.68	27	@ New York Giants	1581.41	17
3	1952-11-23	30.21%	Philadelphia Eagles	1502.34	28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1644.83	20
4	1952-10-19	30.68%	Chicago Cardinals	1458.22	24	@ New York Giants	1596.87	23
5	1952-11-30	31.63%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1462.37	63	New York Giants	1593.21	7
6	1952-11-02	32.21%	@ Green Bay Packers	1372.60	12	Philadelphia Eagles	1498.83	10
7	1952-11-09	32.58%	Green Bay Packers	1374.81	41	@ Chicago Bears	1498.10	28
8	1952-11-27	33.05%	@ Dallas Texans (1st)	1370.83	27	Chicago Bears	1490.39	23
9	1952-11-02	33.31%	@ Detroit Lions	1529.55	17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1647.06	6
10	1952-10-26	35.65%	Philadelphia Eagles	1495.87	14	@ New York Giants	1595.27	10
11	1952-12-28 *	38.05%	Detroit Lions	1557.54	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1642.23	7
12	1952-12-14	38.14%	@ Washington Redskins	1425.93	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1506.65	21
13	1952-10-05	39.50%	@ Green Bay Packers	1368.19	35	Washington Redskins	1438.99	20
14	1952-12-14	39.81%	@ New York Giants	1576.16	37	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1644.63	34
15	1952-12-07	40.99%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1474.17	24	@ San Francisco 49ers	1534.16	7
16	1952-11-30	41.09%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1447.63	28	Philadelphia Eagles	1506.90	22
17	1952-10-19	41.46%	@ Detroit Lions	1521.65	24	Los Angeles Rams	1578.22	16
18	1952-10-05	41.50%	@ Chicago Cardinals	1450.14	21	Chicago Bears	1506.44	10
19	1952-10-03	41.77%	Detroit Lions	1525.40	17	@ Los Angeles Rams	1579.76	14
20	1952-11-23	41.84%	@ Chicago Bears	1489.05	24	Detroit Lions	1542.95	23
21	1952-10-12	42.09%	New York Giants	1593.10	17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1645.15	9
22	1952-11-02	42.33%	Chicago Bears	1495.80	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1546.17	17
23	1952-12-21 *	43.12%	@ Detroit Lions	1553.36	31	Los Angeles Rams	1601.49	21
24	1952-10-19	44.59%	Washington Redskins	1429.98	28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1464.36	24
25	1952-09-29	46.50%	Washington Redskins	1434.07	23	@ Chicago Cardinals	1455.06	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1952-11-30	11.80	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	63	1462.37	31.63%	New York Giants	7	1593.21	67.50%
2	1952-11-16	6.76	Green Bay Packers	17	1380.42	21.91%	@ New York Giants	3	1598.69	77.38%
3	1952-10-12	6.07	San Francisco 49ers	28	1531.41	50.04%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1527.72	48.98%
4	1952-11-23	5.96	@ Green Bay Packers	42	1387.17	51.00%	Dallas Texans (1st)	14	1376.79	48.02%
5	1952-11-09	5.61	Green Bay Packers	41	1374.81	32.58%	@ Chicago Bears	28	1498.10	66.54%
6	1952-12-07	5.60	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1474.17	40.99%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1534.16	58.06%
7	1952-10-05	5.40	@ Green Bay Packers	35	1368.19	39.50%	Washington Redskins	20	1438.99	59.56%
8	1952-09-28	5.37	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	37	1639.17	57.22%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1585.13	41.82%
9	1952-12-07	5.25	Washington Redskins	27	1420.68	28.06%	@ New York Giants	17	1581.41	71.13%
10	1952-10-19	5.16	San Francisco 49ers	40	1537.48	54.11%	@ Chicago Bears	16	1505.45	44.92%
11	1952-11-23	5.16	@ Los Angeles Rams	35	1587.60	55.91%	San Francisco 49ers	9	1542.85	43.12%
12	1952-11-02	5.10	@ Detroit Lions	17	1529.55	33.31%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	1647.06	65.80%
13	1952-09-29	4.92	Washington Redskins	23	1434.07	46.50%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1455.06	52.53%
14	1952-12-07	4.75	@ Detroit Lions	45	1545.00	57.74%	Chicago Bears	21	1487.30	41.30%
15	1952-11-09	4.67	Detroit Lions	31	1534.65	59.30%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1465.68	39.75%
16	1952-10-19	4.63	Cleveland Browns (1st)	49	1641.38	68.74%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1500.49	30.40%
17	1952-11-23	4.56	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1502.34	30.21%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	20	1644.83	68.94%
18	1952-12-28 *	4.54	Detroit Lions	17	1557.54	38.05%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1642.23	61.95%
19	1952-10-26	4.49	@ Los Angeles Rams	31	1574.41	60.01%	Chicago Bears	7	1500.29	39.04%
20	1952-10-05	4.46	@ Chicago Cardinals	21	1450.14	41.50%	Chicago Bears	10	1506.44	57.54%
21	1952-09-28	4.42	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1523.38	48.58%	Detroit Lions	3	1529.82	50.44%
22	1952-10-04	4.30	New York Giants	31	1588.80	61.69%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1502.43	37.38%
23	1952-12-21 *	4.18	@ Detroit Lions	31	1553.36	43.12%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1601.49	56.88%
24	1952-10-26	4.09	Detroit Lions	52	1525.46	69.70%	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1376.69	29.46%
25	1952-11-09	4.00	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1496.62	58.92%	Washington Redskins	20	1430.43	40.13%