1949 NFL Season

60 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd Title

Last Title: 1948

Runner-Up

Los Angeles Rams

2nd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1945

Biggest Overachiever

Philadelphia Eagles

1.93 wins above expected

11 wins · 9.07 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Bulldogs

2.15 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.65 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	11	1	0	.917	-	364	134	+230	9.07	+1.93
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	1	.542	4.5	224	214	+10	5.68	+0.82
3	New York Giants	6	6	0	.500	5	287	298	-11	5.10	+0.90
4	Washington Redskins	4	7	1	.375	6.5	268	339	-71	5.58	-1.08
5	New York Bulldogs	1	10	1	.125	9.5	153	368	-215	3.65	-2.15

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	8	2	2	.750	-	360	239	+121	8.11	+0.89
2	Chicago Bears	9	3	0	.750	-	332	218	+114	8.76	+0.24
3	Chicago Cardinals	6	5	1	.542	2.5	360	301	+59	7.63	-1.13
4	Detroit Lions	4	8	0	.333	5	237	259	-22	3.85	+0.15
5	Green Bay Packers	2	10	0	.167	7	114	329	-215	2.56	-0.56

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Los Angeles Rams 0

Dec 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1786	11	9.07	+1.93	98.17%	2	6	8	9	10	11	12
Chicago Bears	West	1740	9	8.76	+0.24	74.89%	2	6	7	9	10	11	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1653	9	8.11	+0.89	87.32%	1	5	7	8	9	10	12
Chicago Cardinals	West	1594	6.5	7.63	-1.13	29.95%	1	5	6	7	8	10	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1467	6.5	5.68	+0.82	77.07%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Washington Redskins	East	1439	4.5	5.58	-1.08	32.70%	0	3	4	5	6	8	11
New York Giants	East	1437	6	5.10	+0.90	86.88%	0	2	4	5	6	7	12
Detroit Lions	West	1399	4	3.85	+0.15	75.61%	0	1	3	4	4	6	10
New York Bulldogs	East	1271	1.5	3.65	-2.15	9.58%	0	1	2	3	4	6	11
Green Bay Packers	West	1214	2	2.56	-0.56	58.90%	0	0	1	2	3	5	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Bulldogs	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
New York Bulldogs	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
New York Bulldogs	-	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within West

Team	Bears	Cardinals	Lions	Packers	Rams
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bulldogs	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Bears	-	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	0.83%	2.50%	2.50%	1.67%	—	0.83%	8.33%
7–13	0.83%	1.67%	1.67%	4.17%	3.33%	2.50%	0.83%	15.00%
14–20	2.50%	1.67%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	3.33%	3.33%	19.17%
21–27	2.50%	4.17%	3.33%	5.00%	4.17%	1.67%	3.33%	24.17%
28–34	1.67%	3.33%	1.67%	4.17%	1.67%	0.83%	—	13.33%
35–41	—	2.50%	3.33%	1.67%	0.83%	1.67%	0.83%	10.83%
42+	0.83%	0.83%	3.33%	3.33%	—	0.83%	—	9.17%
Total	8.33%	15.00%	19.17%	24.17%	13.33%	10.83%	9.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.49	22.49	+0.00
SD	13.42	13.42	20.25
CV	0.60	0.60	—
Max	65	65	+45
Min	0	0	-45

Games Played: 60

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	—	50.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.67	18.17	+9.50
SD	10.03	11.29	13.18
CV	0.36	0.62	—
Max	52	35	+31
Min	16	0	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
42+	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	25.08	+4.92
SD	18.02	11.82	23.57
CV	0.60	0.47	—
Max	65	52	+45
Min	3	7	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	50.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	21.58	-1.83
SD	10.65	9.82	14.29
CV	0.54	0.46	—
Max	45	42	+24
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
14–20	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	—	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.50	27.42	-17.92
SD	7.19	13.19	15.42
CV	0.76	0.48	—
Max	21	48	+19
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	—	33.33%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	19.92	+10.08
SD	13.21	10.50	17.48
CV	0.44	0.53	—
Max	53	38	+41
Min	7	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	100%

New York Bulldogs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.75	30.67	-17.92
SD	10.86	15.45	16.19
CV	0.85	0.50	—
Max	31	65	+7
Min	0	7	-45

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
7–13	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.92	24.83	-0.92
SD	14.50	11.57	16.78
CV	0.61	0.47	—
Max	45	45	+24
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	41.67%	8.33%	33.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.33	11.17	+19.17
SD	12.53	11.04	15.37
CV	0.41	0.99	—
Max	49	38	+42
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	41.67%	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.67	17.83	+0.83
SD	7.77	12.78	17.95
CV	0.42	0.72	—
Max	30	38	+27
Min	7	0	-31

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	16.67%	41.67%
28–34	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	—	33.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	33.33%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.33	28.25	-5.92
SD	10.19	17.35	21.83
CV	0.46	0.61	—
Max	38	53	+30
Min	7	0	-35

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.74	+0.3
Allowed	0.78	-0.4
Differential	0.95	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Philadelphia Eagles	11	9.07	+1.93
2	New York Giants	6	5.10	+0.90
3	Los Angeles Rams	9	8.11	+0.89
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6.5	5.68	+0.82
5	Chicago Bears	9	8.76	+0.24

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Bulldogs	1.5	3.65	-2.15
2	Chicago Cardinals	6.5	7.63	-1.13
3	Washington Redskins	4.5	5.58	-1.08
4	Green Bay Packers	2	2.56	-0.56
5	Detroit Lions	4	3.85	+0.15

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	6	Sep 23 – Oct 30	1 in 16
2	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Oct 23 – Dec 11	1 in 8
3	New York Giants	2	Sep 30 – Oct 9	1 in 7
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Oct 8 – Oct 23	1 in 5
5	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Bulldogs	5	Sep 22 – Oct 23	1 in 22
2	Chicago Bears	2	Oct 23 – Oct 30	1 in 15
3	Green Bay Packers	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 6
4	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 13 – Nov 27	1 in 4
5	Chicago Cardinals	2	Oct 2 – Oct 8	1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Philadelphia Eagles	85.70%	10.77%	2.72%	0.69%	0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.76%	32.38%	28.55%	22.12%	11.19%
Washington Redskins	5.08%	29.05%	28.97%	23.89%	13.00%
New York Giants	3.02%	22.38%	27.45%	29.03%	18.12%
New York Bulldogs	0.44%	5.41%	12.31%	24.27%	57.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Chicago Bears	49.49%	30.84%	18.40%	1.19%	0.07%
Los Angeles Rams	29.93%	36.81%	30.45%	2.61%	0.20%
Chicago Cardinals	20.38%	31.17%	43.46%	4.60%	0.40%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	1.04%	6.25%	65.29%	27.24%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.14%	1.45%	26.31%	72.09%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Philadelphia Eagles	38.29%	32.93%	14.30%	8.00%	3.85%	1.77%	0.61%	0.19%	0.06%	<0.01%
Chicago Bears	31.01%	25.15%	21.23%	11.95%	7.04%	2.56%	0.76%	0.22%	0.06%	0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	17.26%	20.10%	25.35%	17.49%	12.16%	5.03%	1.74%	0.65%	0.19%	0.04%
Chicago Cardinals	11.27%	14.91%	22.15%	21.25%	16.97%	8.44%	3.09%	1.42%	0.42%	0.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.87%	2.77%	6.08%	14.59%	18.86%	20.97%	15.96%	10.87%	6.51%	2.51%
Washington Redskins	0.89%	2.52%	5.89%	13.11%	16.93%	21.38%	17.54%	11.74%	7.32%	2.68%
New York Giants	0.34%	1.31%	3.69%	9.70%	14.74%	20.35%	19.61%	14.95%	10.65%	4.67%
Detroit Lions	0.06%	0.15%	0.65%	1.63%	4.07%	7.99%	19.46%	27.78%	21.48%	16.74%
New York Bulldogs	0.03%	0.15%	0.57%	2.03%	4.49%	9.35%	14.36%	18.98%	29.68%	20.35%
Green Bay Packers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.25%	0.89%	2.16%	6.87%	13.20%	23.62%	52.89%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	85.70%	14.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.76%	94.24%
Washington Redskins	5.08%	94.92%
New York Giants	3.02%	96.98%
New York Bulldogs	0.44%	99.56%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Chicago Bears	49.49%	50.51%
Los Angeles Rams	29.93%	70.07%
Chicago Cardinals	20.38%	79.62%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	99.82%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	99.98%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeTieAway

+1.67%

No Edge

48.33%5.00%46.67%

Elo Value

Home Edge

17 Elo

0.059 points per Elo point

05.7950

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.28 points

Lean Home

-8+0.34+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th · Longshot: 6th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

54%

Philadelphia Eagles, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.2 · As Expected: 1.2 to 1.65 · Elevated: 1.65 to 2.24 · High Variance: 2.24 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.06 · Close: 1.06 to 1.44 · Off Target: 1.44 to 1.88 · Well Off Target: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 10 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.5 · As Expected: 0.5 to 1.2 · Several Outliers: 1.2 to 2.2 · Many Outliers: 2.2 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.49 · As Expected: 0.49 to 0.81 · More Than Expected: 0.81 to 1.3 · Far More Than Expected: 1.3 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.16 wins

Subdued

01.504

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

01.253

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.17%

Philadelphia Eagles

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

9.58%

New York Bulldogs

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

As Expected

01.010

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 2

Fewer Than Expected

00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.28

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.32

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

79%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

96%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

15%

Mostly Decisive

0%13%100%

Blowouts

Expected

53%

Routine

0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.39

Highly Predictable

00.422

Matchup Imbalance

0.46

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.64

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.82

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

25%

Chalk Held

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Favorites Held

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 · Within Noise: 0.09 to 0.19 · Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.38 · Well Above Noise: 0.38 and up.

Probability calibration

0.83

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.130

Within Noise

00.1880.5

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	85.70%	53.92%
Chicago Bears	49.49%	24.79%
Los Angeles Rams	29.93%	11.78%
Chicago Cardinals	20.38%	6.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.76%	1.33%
Washington Redskins	5.08%	1.03%
New York Giants	3.02%	0.59%
New York Bulldogs	0.44%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Bulldogs	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
New York Bulldogs	7.3%0.25%	18.3%0.07%			11.9%0.13%
New York Giants	15.4%1.43%	28.9%0.54%	33.3%<0.01%		20.6%1.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	55.6%42.51%	74.6%17.40%	88.5%0.15%	94.1%0.02%	67.1%25.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.7%2.77%	33.1%1.34%	25.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	24.3%1.64%
Washington Redskins	14.0%2.53%	31.0%1.02%	42.9%0.01%		23.0%1.52%
Chicago Bears						92.7%0.25%	84.6%1.43%	44.4%42.51%	82.3%2.77%	86.0%2.53%
Chicago Cardinals						81.7%0.07%	71.1%0.54%	25.4%17.40%	66.9%1.34%	69.0%1.02%
Detroit Lions							66.7%<0.01%	11.5%0.15%	75.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%
Green Bay Packers								5.9%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams						88.1%0.13%	79.4%1.04%	32.9%25.62%	75.7%1.64%	77.0%1.52%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Won Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	55.91%
Chicago Bears	44.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles	55.9%100.00%
Chicago Bears		44.1%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Philadelphia Eagles 55.91% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.91%

Chicago Bears 44.09% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.09%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-0	1701.62	1275.55	89.84%	7.82%	+4.51	1-0
1949-10-02	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 17-7	1706.13	1667.75	51.22%	41.92%	+19.21	2-0
1949-10-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-31	1725.34	1613.25	62.88%	30.86%	-34.43	2-1
1949-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-21	1690.91	1708.04	44.92%	48.17%	+28.52	3-1
1949-10-23	@ New York Giants	L 28-35	1719.43	1429.82	80.74%	15.23%	-29.66	3-2
1949-10-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1689.77	1661.69	49.74%	43.36%	-12.35	3-3
1949-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1677.42	1293.78	88.18%	9.14%	+5.90	4-3
1949-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1683.32	1348.09	85.13%	11.61%	+2.86	5-3
1949-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-21	1686.18	1478.99	72.80%	21.98%	+10.12	6-3
1949-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1696.30	1389.54	82.15%	14.06%	+9.22	7-3
1949-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-21	1705.52	1453.62	78.43%	17.16%	+7.44	8-3
1949-12-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 52-21	1712.96	1620.58	60.29%	33.25%	+27.03	9-3
1949-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 38-7	1646.59	1491.39	68.22%	26.02%	+21.16	1-0
1949-10-02	Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1667.75	1706.13	41.92%	51.22%	-19.21	1-1
1949-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-28	1648.54	1677.92	41.56%	51.58%	-30.12	1-2
1949-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 39-17	1618.42	1298.31	83.19%	13.20%	+8.85	2-2
1949-10-23	Detroit Lions	L 7-24	1627.27	1328.62	82.42%	13.83%	-47.09	2-3
1949-10-30	New York Giants	L 38-41	1580.18	1459.48	63.98%	29.85%	-15.65	2-4
1949-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-19	1564.53	1363.88	72.09%	22.60%	+15.79	3-4
1949-11-13	@ New York Bulldogs	W 65-20	1580.32	1327.67	77.42%	18.02%	+17.48	4-4
1949-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	T 28-28	1597.80	1643.97	40.84%	52.32%	+0.39	4-4
1949-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 41-21	1598.19	1252.76	85.82%	11.05%	+7.00	5-4
1949-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1605.19	1651.16	39.29%	53.93%	+15.39	6-4
1949-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-52	1620.58	1712.96	33.25%	60.29%	-27.04	6-5
1949-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1357.62	1597.26	18.14%	77.28%	-4.54	0-1
1949-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-22	1353.08	1672.58	13.24%	83.14%	-5.35	0-2
1949-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-14	1347.73	1444.85	32.67%	60.92%	-12.62	0-3
1949-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-21	1335.11	1647.68	13.68%	82.61%	-6.49	0-4
1949-10-23	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-7	1328.62	1627.27	13.83%	82.42%	+47.08	1-4
1949-10-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1375.70	1281.95	58.92%	34.54%	-11.82	1-5
1949-11-06	Chicago Cardinals	L 19-42	1363.88	1564.53	22.60%	72.09%	-15.79	1-6
1949-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1348.09	1683.32	11.61%	85.13%	-2.86	1-7
1949-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 45-21	1345.23	1466.39	29.80%	64.04%	+44.31	2-7
1949-11-24	Chicago Bears	L 7-28	1389.54	1696.30	14.06%	82.15%	-9.23	2-8
1949-12-04	New York Bulldogs	W 28-27	1380.31	1296.62	59.13%	34.34%	+5.02	3-8
1949-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 21-7	1385.33	1228.04	68.47%	25.80%	+14.09	4-8
1949-09-25	Chicago Bears	L 0-17	1275.55	1701.62	7.82%	89.84%	-4.52	0-1
1949-10-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-48	1271.03	1601.80	12.54%	83.98%	-11.45	0-2
1949-10-07	@ New York Bulldogs	W 19-0	1259.58	1371.37	30.90%	62.84%	+38.73	1-2
1949-10-16	Chicago Cardinals	L 17-39	1298.31	1618.42	13.20%	83.19%	-8.84	1-3
1949-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-35	1289.47	1654.17	10.05%	87.05%	-7.52	1-4
1949-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1281.95	1375.70	34.54%	58.92%	+11.83	2-4
1949-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-24	1293.78	1677.42	9.14%	88.18%	-5.90	2-5
1949-11-13	New York Giants	L 10-30	1287.88	1448.99	26.63%	67.55%	-17.40	2-6
1949-11-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-30	1270.48	1443.96	25.32%	69.01%	-17.72	2-7
1949-11-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 21-41	1252.76	1598.19	11.05%	85.82%	-7.01	2-8
1949-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-30	1245.75	1438.93	22.21%	72.54%	-17.71	2-9
1949-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-21	1228.04	1385.33	25.80%	68.47%	-14.10	2-10
1949-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1597.26	1357.62	77.28%	18.14%	+4.54	1-0
1949-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 48-7	1601.80	1271.03	83.98%	12.54%	+11.45	2-0
1949-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-16	1613.25	1725.34	30.86%	62.88%	+34.43	3-0
1949-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-10	1647.68	1335.11	82.61%	13.68%	+6.49	4-0
1949-10-23	Green Bay Packers	W 35-7	1654.17	1289.47	87.05%	10.05%	+7.52	5-0
1949-10-30	Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1661.69	1689.77	43.36%	49.74%	+12.34	6-0
1949-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-38	1674.03	1715.99	39.83%	53.36%	-28.34	6-1
1949-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 7-7	1645.69	1442.23	72.40%	22.34%	-1.72	6-1
1949-11-20	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 28-28	1643.97	1597.80	52.32%	40.84%	-0.39	6-1
1949-11-27	New York Bulldogs	W 42-20	1643.58	1304.20	85.41%	11.38%	+7.58	7-1
1949-12-04	Chicago Cardinals	L 27-31	1651.16	1605.19	53.93%	39.29%	-15.38	7-2
1949-12-11	Washington Redskins	W 53-27	1635.78	1456.64	70.99%	23.57%	+17.52	8-2
1949-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-7	1414.16	1665.64	18.11%	77.30%	-6.93	0-1
1949-09-30	New York Giants	L 14-38	1407.23	1380.82	51.16%	41.98%	-35.86	0-2
1949-10-07	Green Bay Packers	L 0-19	1371.37	1259.58	62.84%	30.90%	-38.73	0-3
1949-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-38	1332.64	1468.53	28.12%	65.88%	-20.13	0-4
1949-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1312.51	1470.54	25.72%	68.56%	-12.46	0-5
1949-10-30	Washington Redskins	T 14-14	1300.05	1469.33	25.76%	68.52%	+1.47	0-5
1949-11-06	@ New York Giants	W 31-24	1301.52	1475.14	24.12%	70.37%	+26.15	1-5
1949-11-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 20-65	1327.67	1580.32	18.02%	77.42%	-17.49	1-6
1949-11-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-42	1310.18	1756.82	6.63%	91.34%	-5.98	1-7
1949-11-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-42	1304.20	1643.58	11.38%	85.41%	-7.58	1-8
1949-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1296.62	1380.31	34.34%	59.13%	-5.01	1-9
1949-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1291.61	1446.19	27.34%	66.76%	-20.75	1-10
1949-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1408.01	1442.16	40.90%	52.26%	-27.19	0-1
1949-09-30	@ New York Bulldogs	W 38-14	1380.82	1407.23	41.98%	51.16%	+35.86	1-1
1949-10-09	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-35	1416.68	1494.73	35.06%	58.37%	+26.20	2-1
1949-10-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1442.88	1457.48	45.28%	47.81%	-13.06	2-2
1949-10-23	Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1429.82	1719.43	15.23%	80.74%	+29.66	3-2
1949-10-30	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 41-38	1459.48	1580.18	29.85%	63.98%	+15.66	4-2
1949-11-06	New York Bulldogs	L 24-31	1475.14	1301.52	70.37%	24.12%	-26.15	4-3
1949-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-10	1448.99	1287.88	67.55%	26.63%	+17.40	5-3
1949-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 21-45	1466.39	1345.23	64.04%	29.80%	-44.31	5-4
1949-11-27	Washington Redskins	W 23-7	1422.08	1468.87	40.76%	52.41%	+29.94	6-4
1949-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-24	1452.02	1770.86	13.28%	83.09%	-8.69	6-5
1949-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1443.33	1779.56	11.55%	85.20%	-6.14	6-6
1949-09-22	@ New York Bulldogs	W 7-0	1665.64	1414.16	77.30%	18.11%	+6.94	1-0
1949-10-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 22-14	1672.58	1353.08	83.14%	13.24%	+5.34	2-0
1949-10-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-3	1677.92	1648.54	51.58%	41.56%	+30.12	3-0
1949-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-38	1708.04	1690.91	48.17%	44.92%	-28.52	3-1
1949-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 49-14	1679.52	1488.66	72.29%	22.43%	+19.32	4-1
1949-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-7	1698.84	1483.00	73.73%	21.18%	+17.15	5-1
1949-11-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 38-14	1715.99	1674.03	53.36%	39.83%	+28.34	6-1
1949-11-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-21	1744.33	1491.48	77.44%	18.00%	+12.49	7-1
1949-11-20	New York Bulldogs	W 42-0	1756.82	1310.18	91.34%	6.63%	+5.98	8-1
1949-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-17	1762.80	1461.68	82.61%	13.67%	+8.06	9-1
1949-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 24-3	1770.86	1452.02	83.09%	13.28%	+8.70	10-1
1949-12-11	New York Giants	W 17-3	1779.56	1443.33	85.20%	11.55%	+6.14	11-1
1949-09-25	New York Giants	W 28-7	1442.16	1408.01	52.26%	40.90%	+27.19	1-0
1949-10-03	Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1469.35	1470.23	47.25%	45.84%	-24.50	1-1
1949-10-08	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1444.85	1347.73	60.92%	32.67%	+12.63	2-1
1949-10-16	@ New York Giants	W 21-17	1457.48	1442.88	47.81%	45.28%	+13.06	3-1
1949-10-23	New York Bulldogs	W 24-13	1470.54	1312.51	68.56%	25.72%	+12.46	4-1
1949-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1483.00	1698.84	21.18%	73.73%	-17.15	4-2
1949-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1465.85	1467.87	45.42%	47.67%	-23.62	4-3
1949-11-13	Los Angeles Rams	T 7-7	1442.23	1645.69	22.34%	72.40%	+1.73	4-3
1949-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-7	1443.96	1270.48	69.01%	25.32%	+17.72	5-3
1949-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-34	1461.68	1762.80	13.67%	82.61%	-8.06	5-4
1949-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-30	1453.62	1705.52	17.16%	78.43%	-7.43	5-5
1949-12-11	@ New York Bulldogs	W 27-0	1446.19	1291.61	66.76%	27.34%	+20.75	6-5
1949-09-26	@ Chicago Cardinals	L 7-38	1491.39	1646.59	26.02%	68.22%	-21.16	0-1
1949-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1470.23	1469.35	45.84%	47.25%	+24.50	1-1
1949-10-09	New York Giants	L 35-45	1494.73	1416.68	58.37%	35.06%	-26.20	1-2
1949-10-16	New York Bulldogs	W 38-14	1468.53	1332.64	65.88%	28.12%	+20.13	2-2
1949-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-49	1488.66	1679.52	22.43%	72.29%	-19.33	2-3
1949-10-30	@ New York Bulldogs	T 14-14	1469.33	1300.05	68.52%	25.76%	-1.46	2-3
1949-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1467.87	1465.85	47.67%	45.42%	+23.61	3-3
1949-11-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-44	1491.48	1744.33	18.00%	77.44%	-12.49	3-4
1949-11-20	Chicago Bears	L 21-31	1478.99	1686.18	21.98%	72.80%	-10.12	3-5
1949-11-27	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1468.87	1422.08	52.41%	40.76%	-29.94	3-6
1949-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 30-0	1438.93	1245.75	72.54%	22.21%	+17.71	4-6
1949-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-53	1456.64	1635.78	23.57%	70.99%	-17.52	4-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1949-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-14	1653.30	1785.70	32.55%	67.45%	-16.32	0-1
1949-12-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-0	1785.70	1653.30	67.45%	32.55%	+16.32	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1949-10-23	13.83%	Detroit Lions	1328.62	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1627.27	7
2	1949-10-23	15.23%	@ New York Giants	1429.82	35	Chicago Bears	1719.43	28
3	1949-11-06	24.12%	New York Bulldogs	1301.52	31	@ New York Giants	1475.14	24
4	1949-11-20	29.80%	Detroit Lions	1345.23	45	@ New York Giants	1466.39	21
5	1949-10-30	29.85%	New York Giants	1459.48	41	@ Chicago Cardinals	1580.18	38
6	1949-10-09	30.86%	Los Angeles Rams	1613.25	31	@ Chicago Bears	1725.34	16
7	1949-10-07	30.90%	Green Bay Packers	1259.58	19	@ New York Bulldogs	1371.37	0
8	1949-10-30	34.54%	@ Green Bay Packers	1281.95	16	Detroit Lions	1375.70	14
9	1949-10-09	35.06%	New York Giants	1416.68	45	@ Washington Redskins	1494.73	35
10	1949-12-04	39.29%	Chicago Cardinals	1605.19	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1651.16	27
11	1949-11-27	40.76%	@ New York Giants	1422.08	23	Washington Redskins	1468.87	7
12	1949-09-30	41.98%	New York Giants	1380.82	38	@ New York Bulldogs	1407.23	14
13	1949-10-30	43.36%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1661.69	27	Chicago Bears	1689.77	24
14	1949-10-16	44.92%	@ Chicago Bears	1690.91	38	Philadelphia Eagles	1708.04	21
15	1949-10-03	45.84%	Washington Redskins	1470.23	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1469.35	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1949-10-23	47.09	Detroit Lions	24	1328.62	13.83%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1627.27	82.42%
2	1949-11-20	44.31	Detroit Lions	45	1345.23	29.80%	@ New York Giants	21	1466.39	64.04%
3	1949-10-07	38.73	Green Bay Packers	19	1259.58	30.90%	@ New York Bulldogs	0	1371.37	62.84%
4	1949-09-30	35.86	New York Giants	38	1380.82	41.98%	@ New York Bulldogs	14	1407.23	51.16%
5	1949-10-09	34.43	Los Angeles Rams	31	1613.25	30.86%	@ Chicago Bears	16	1725.34	62.88%
6	1949-10-08	30.12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	28	1677.92	51.58%	Chicago Cardinals	3	1648.54	41.56%
7	1949-11-27	29.94	@ New York Giants	23	1422.08	40.76%	Washington Redskins	7	1468.87	52.41%
8	1949-10-23	29.66	@ New York Giants	35	1429.82	15.23%	Chicago Bears	28	1719.43	80.74%
9	1949-10-16	28.52	@ Chicago Bears	38	1690.91	44.92%	Philadelphia Eagles	21	1708.04	48.17%
10	1949-11-06	28.34	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1715.99	53.36%	Los Angeles Rams	14	1674.03	39.83%
11	1949-09-25	27.19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1442.16	52.26%	New York Giants	7	1408.01	40.90%
12	1949-12-11	27.04	@ Chicago Bears	52	1712.96	60.29%	Chicago Cardinals	21	1620.58	33.25%
13	1949-10-09	26.20	New York Giants	45	1416.68	35.06%	@ Washington Redskins	35	1494.73	58.37%
14	1949-11-06	26.15	New York Bulldogs	31	1301.52	24.12%	@ New York Giants	24	1475.14	70.37%
15	1949-10-03	24.50	Washington Redskins	27	1470.23	45.84%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1469.35	47.25%
16	1949-11-06	23.62	@ Washington Redskins	27	1467.87	47.67%	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1465.85	45.42%
17	1949-09-26	21.16	@ Chicago Cardinals	38	1646.59	68.22%	Washington Redskins	7	1491.39	26.02%
18	1949-12-11	20.75	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1446.19	66.76%	@ New York Bulldogs	0	1291.61	27.34%
19	1949-10-16	20.13	@ Washington Redskins	38	1468.53	65.88%	New York Bulldogs	14	1332.64	28.12%
20	1949-10-23	19.33	@ Philadelphia Eagles	49	1679.52	72.29%	Washington Redskins	14	1488.66	22.43%
21	1949-10-02	19.21	Chicago Bears	17	1706.13	51.22%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1667.75	41.92%
22	1949-11-20	17.72	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	1443.96	69.01%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1270.48	25.32%
23	1949-12-04	17.71	@ Washington Redskins	30	1438.93	72.54%	Green Bay Packers	0	1245.75	22.21%
24	1949-12-11	17.52	@ Los Angeles Rams	53	1635.78	70.99%	Washington Redskins	27	1456.64	23.57%
25	1949-11-13	17.49	Chicago Cardinals	65	1580.32	77.42%	@ New York Bulldogs	20	1327.67	18.02%