Home / Leagues / NFL / 1950

1950 NFL Season

78 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns (1st)

1st Title

Runner-Up

Los Angeles Rams

3rd Appearance

Last Appearance: 1949

Biggest Overachiever

New York Giants

3.85 wins above expected

10 wins · 6.15 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

3.38 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.38 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Giants Division 10 2 0 .833 - 268 150 +118 6.15 +3.85
2 Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs 10 2 0 .833 - 310 144 +166 9.53 +0.47
3 Philadelphia Eagles 6 6 0 .500 4 254 141 +113 8.31 -2.31
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 6 0 .500 4 180 195 -15 4.98 +1.02
5 Chicago Cardinals 5 7 0 .417 5 233 287 -54 5.09 -0.09
6 Washington Redskins 3 9 0 .250 7 232 326 -94 4.19 -1.19
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Chicago Bears Division 9 3 0 .750 - 279 207 +72 8.35 +0.65
2 Los Angeles Rams Playoffs 9 3 0 .750 - 466 309 +157 7.84 +1.16
3 New York Yanks 7 5 0 .583 2 366 367 -1 5.16 +1.84
4 Detroit Lions 6 6 0 .500 3 321 285 +36 5.93 +0.07
5 Green Bay Packers 3 9 0 .250 6 244 406 -162 3.12 -0.12
6 San Francisco 49ers 3 9 0 .250 6 213 300 -87 6.38 -3.38
7 Baltimore Colts (1st) 1 11 0 .083 8 213 462 -249 2.97 -1.97

Playoff Bracket

Division Playoff

Cleveland Browns (1st) 8
New York Giants 3

Dec 17

Los Angeles Rams 24
Chicago Bears 14

Dec 17

NFL Championship Game

Cleveland Browns (1st) 30
Los Angeles Rams 28

Dec 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cleveland Browns (1st) East 1782 10 9.53 +0.47 76.23% 2 7 9 10 10 12 12
Chicago Bears West 1653 9 8.35 +0.65 77.63% 1 6 7 8 9 11 12
Los Angeles Rams West 1653 9 7.84 +1.16 87.25% 1 5 7 8 9 10 12
New York Giants East 1637 10 6.15 +3.85 99.83% 0 4 5 6 7 9 12
Philadelphia Eagles East 1637 6 8.31 -2.31 11.33% 2 6 7 8 9 11 12
Pittsburgh Steelers East 1510 6 4.98 +1.02 84.65% 0 3 4 5 6 7 11
Detroit Lions West 1487 6 5.93 +0.07 64.62% 0 3 5 6 7 9 12
Chicago Cardinals East 1472 5 5.09 -0.09 61.59% 0 3 4 5 6 8 11
New York Yanks West 1428 7 5.16 +1.84 93.70% 0 3 4 5 6 8 12
San Francisco 49ers West 1425 3 6.38 -3.38 3.04% 0 4 5 6 7 9 12
Washington Redskins East 1385 3 4.19 -1.19 33.07% 0 2 3 4 5 7 10
Green Bay Packers West 1238 3 3.12 -0.12 62.98% 0 1 2 3 4 6 10
Baltimore Colts (1st) West 1193 1 2.97 -1.97 15.64% 0 1 2 3 4 5 9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Cardinals (1st) Giants Eagles Steelers Redskins
Chicago Cardinals
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
0-2
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.8 exp.)
New York Giants
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.4 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)

East vs. Outside Teams

Team (1st) Bears Lions Packers Rams Yanks 49ers
Chicago Cardinals
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-
Cleveland Browns (1st)
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
New York Giants
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
Philadelphia Eagles
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
-
-
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-
Washington Redskins
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
-
-
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-

Within West

Team (1st) Bears Lions Packers Rams Yanks 49ers
Baltimore Colts (1st)
-
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears
-
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(1.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
New York Yanks
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(1.3 exp.)

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Cardinals (1st) Giants Eagles Steelers Redskins
Baltimore Colts (1st)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
Chicago Bears
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-
Detroit Lions
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
Green Bay Packers
-
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams
-
-
-
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
-
-
New York Yanks
-
-
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
-
-
-
San Francisco 49ers
-
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
-
-
-
-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–62.56%0.64%1.92%0.64%1.28%0.64%7.69%
7–130.64%6.41%3.85%1.92%0.64%0.64%3.21%17.31%
14–201.92%3.85%2.56%3.21%4.49%1.92%3.85%21.79%
21–270.64%1.92%3.21%3.85%3.21%2.56%3.85%19.23%
28–341.28%0.64%4.49%3.21%1.28%1.28%1.28%13.46%
35–410.64%0.64%1.92%2.56%1.28%0.64%7.69%
42+3.21%3.85%3.85%1.28%0.64%12.82%
Total7.69%17.31%21.79%19.23%13.46%7.69%12.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 22.94 22.94 +0.00
SD 14.22 14.22 20.69
CV 0.62 0.62
Max 70 70 +44
Min 0 0 -44

Games Played: 78

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%16.67%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%16.67%41.67%
21–2716.67%16.67%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total16.67%16.67%8.33%16.67%41.67%100%

Baltimore Colts (1st) — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 17.75 38.50 -20.75
SD 10.69 17.14 18.74
CV 0.60 0.45
Max 41 70 +20
Min 0 17 -43

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–278.33%16.67%8.33%8.33%41.67%
28–3425.00%25.00%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total25.00%50.00%8.33%8.33%8.33%100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 23.25 17.25 +6.00
SD 8.56 10.92 11.05
CV 0.37 0.63
Max 35 38 +21
Min 6 0 -11

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
14–208.33%16.67%8.33%33.33%
21–278.33%8.33%16.67%
28–34
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%
Total8.33%33.33%8.33%33.33%16.67%100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.42 23.92 -4.50
SD 14.52 15.01 22.13
CV 0.75 0.63
Max 55 51 +42
Min 6 3 -38

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–1316.67%8.33%25.00%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–27
28–348.33%16.67%8.33%33.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%16.67%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 25.83 12.00 +13.83
SD 14.39 7.02 13.86
CV 0.56 0.58
Max 45 24 +38
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–20
21–278.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%16.67%50.00%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–41
42+8.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
Total8.33%25.00%8.33%16.67%16.67%8.33%16.67%100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 26.75 23.75 +3.00
SD 13.80 18.00 23.09
CV 0.52 0.76
Max 49 65 +38
Min 3 6 -41

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%
14–2016.67%8.33%16.67%41.67%
21–2716.67%8.33%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+
Total33.33%16.67%16.67%33.33%100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 20.33 33.83 -13.50
SD 8.61 11.04 17.20
CV 0.42 0.33
Max 35 51 +14
Min 7 21 -38

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–13
14–2016.67%8.33%25.00%
21–27
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+16.67%16.67%8.33%8.33%50.00%
Total25.00%41.67%16.67%8.33%8.33%100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 38.83 25.75 +13.08
SD 17.67 11.51 23.48
CV 0.45 0.45
Max 70 56 +43
Min 14 14 -36

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%16.67%25.00%
7–138.33%8.33%16.67%
14–2016.67%16.67%
21–278.33%8.33%16.67%
28–34
35–41
42+8.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 22.33 12.50 +9.83
SD 19.27 7.38 17.67
CV 0.86 0.59
Max 55 21 +44
Min 3 0 -14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%16.67%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–418.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
42+8.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
Total25.00%25.00%16.67%33.33%100%

New York Yanks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 30.50 30.58 -0.08
SD 13.19 13.20 23.61
CV 0.43 0.43
Max 51 51 +37
Min 7 14 -44

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–1325.00%8.33%8.33%41.67%
14–208.33%8.33%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%
42+8.33%8.33%16.67%
Total16.67%50.00%25.00%8.33%100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 21.17 11.75 +9.42
SD 17.37 9.04 20.54
CV 0.82 0.77
Max 56 35 +38
Min 3 0 -25

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6
7–1316.67%16.67%8.33%8.33%50.00%
14–208.33%8.33%8.33%25.00%
21–278.33%8.33%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–41
42+
Total8.33%41.67%25.00%8.33%8.33%8.33%100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 15.00 16.25 -1.25
SD 8.46 11.93 17.08
CV 0.56 0.73
Max 28 45 +21
Min 7 6 -38

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%16.67%8.33%41.67%
21–278.33%16.67%25.00%
28–348.33%8.33%16.67%
35–41
42+
Total25.00%33.33%33.33%8.33%100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 17.75 25.00 -7.25
SD 8.42 7.27 10.89
CV 0.47 0.29
Max 30 35 +16
Min 0 14 -21

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–68.33%8.33%16.67%
7–138.33%8.33%
14–208.33%8.33%16.67%
21–278.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%33.33%
28–348.33%8.33%
35–418.33%8.33%16.67%
42+
Total8.33%16.67%25.00%16.67%25.00%8.33%100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.33 27.17 -7.83
SD 12.17 10.76 18.18
CV 0.63 0.40
Max 38 45 +24
Min 0 7 -33

Games Played: 12

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.33 +0.2
Allowed 0.51 -0.2
Differential 0.86 +0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 New York Giants 10 6.15 +3.85
2 New York Yanks 7 5.16 +1.84
3 Los Angeles Rams 9 7.84 +1.16
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 4.98 +1.02
5 Chicago Bears 9 8.35 +0.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Francisco 49ers 3 6.38 -3.38
2 Philadelphia Eagles 6 8.31 -2.31
3 Baltimore Colts (1st) 1 2.97 -1.97
4 Washington Redskins 3 4.19 -1.19
5 Green Bay Packers 3 3.12 -0.12

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 New York Yanks 5 Sep 29 – Oct 29 1 in 35
2 New York Giants 6 Nov 5 – Dec 10 1 in 28
3 Green Bay Packers 2 Sep 24 – Oct 1 1 in 26
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 3 Nov 5 – Nov 23 1 in 24
5 Washington Redskins 2 Nov 26 – Dec 3 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 San Francisco 49ers 5 Sep 17 – Oct 12 1 in 176
2 Philadelphia Eagles 4 Nov 19 – Dec 10 1 in 64
3 Washington Redskins 8 Sep 24 – Nov 19 1 in 50
4 Green Bay Packers 6 Oct 8 – Nov 19 1 in 9
5 Cleveland Browns (1st) 1 Oct 1 – Oct 1 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team123456
Cleveland Browns (1st)67.37%24.90%5.81%1.47%0.39%0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles26.51%46.68%17.35%6.51%2.28%0.67%
New York Giants3.67%15.37%32.69%23.32%15.70%9.25%
Chicago Cardinals1.33%6.33%17.95%24.30%25.73%24.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.86%4.51%15.65%24.55%27.33%27.11%
Washington Redskins0.27%2.21%10.55%19.86%28.57%38.54%
Team1234567
Chicago Bears55.30%25.44%11.45%5.14%2.08%0.50%0.10%
Los Angeles Rams28.74%34.39%19.96%10.80%4.65%1.22%0.24%
San Francisco 49ers7.17%16.81%26.59%24.89%15.83%6.57%2.14%
Detroit Lions6.46%15.23%23.16%23.92%18.28%9.15%3.81%
New York Yanks2.17%6.93%14.11%22.37%28.81%17.22%8.39%
Baltimore Colts (1st)0.08%0.59%2.30%6.60%16.11%36.05%38.27%
Green Bay Packers0.09%0.62%2.43%6.29%14.23%29.29%47.05%
Team12345678910111213
Cleveland Browns (1st)48.99%22.85%14.05%7.13%3.48%1.78%0.92%0.41%0.24%0.08%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%
Chicago Bears17.69%29.97%16.66%14.66%7.53%5.51%3.23%2.17%1.23%0.84%0.31%0.16%0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles18.27%15.63%23.62%16.70%10.08%6.63%4.03%2.37%1.47%0.69%0.39%0.12%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams9.42%17.07%17.46%18.27%13.04%8.92%6.69%3.98%2.59%1.47%0.71%0.27%0.12%
San Francisco 49ers1.53%4.54%7.10%10.85%14.48%13.99%13.85%11.06%8.67%6.40%3.91%2.34%1.27%
New York Giants1.71%2.84%7.13%9.04%13.88%15.74%12.67%11.09%9.43%7.04%5.55%3.18%0.68%
Detroit Lions1.09%3.87%5.98%9.77%12.13%12.20%12.54%11.61%9.83%8.52%5.84%4.00%2.62%
Chicago Cardinals0.65%1.00%2.87%3.68%7.25%9.36%10.81%12.97%13.21%13.09%12.32%10.03%2.75%
New York Yanks0.27%1.34%2.43%4.61%7.09%8.39%11.33%12.23%13.72%14.11%10.58%7.96%5.96%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.32%0.66%1.83%3.12%6.27%8.55%11.09%12.85%13.88%13.73%14.37%10.38%2.96%
Washington Redskins0.06%0.15%0.61%1.40%3.06%5.91%7.56%11.27%12.63%15.68%16.01%17.41%8.23%
Baltimore Colts (1st)<0.01%0.04%0.12%0.39%0.85%1.53%2.59%4.13%6.60%9.71%15.72%23.27%35.04%
Green Bay Packers<0.01%0.03%0.13%0.38%0.85%1.49%2.69%3.85%6.49%8.64%14.24%20.88%40.32%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)67.37%32.63%
Philadelphia Eagles26.51%73.49%
New York Giants3.67%96.34%
Chicago Cardinals1.33%98.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.86%99.14%
Washington Redskins0.27%99.73%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Chicago Bears55.30%44.70%
Los Angeles Rams28.74%71.26%
San Francisco 49ers7.17%92.83%
Detroit Lions6.46%93.55%
New York Yanks2.17%97.83%
Green Bay Packers0.09%99.91%
Baltimore Colts (1st)0.08%99.92%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeAway
+15.38%
Fortress
57.69%42.31%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 53.88 Elo pts.
19 Elo
0.052 points per Elo point
050
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+3.42 points
Home-Tilted
-8+2.79+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Few Contenders
124810
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Cleveland Browns (1st), 1st of 13
LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.21 · As Expected: 1.21 to 1.66 · Elevated: 1.66 to 2.27 · High Variance: 2.27 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 · Close: 1.54 to 2.08 · Off Target: 2.08 to 2.72 · Well Off Target: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.65 · As Expected: 0.65 to 1.56 · Several Outliers: 1.56 to 2.86 · Many Outliers: 2.86 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.58 · As Expected: 0.58 to 0.97 · More Than Expected: 0.97 to 1.55 · Far More Than Expected: 1.55 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.83 wins
Elevated
01.514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.85
Close
01.814
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.15%
99.83%
New York Giants
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.85%
3.04%
San Francisco 49ers
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 13
Several Outliers
01.36
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
1 of 2
More Than Expected
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Concentrated
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.18
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
77%
Lopsided
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
97%
No Contest
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
13%
Mostly Decisive
0%11%100%
Blowouts
Expected
42%
Routine
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.21
Predictable
00.191
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Lopsided
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.43
Volatile
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Weak Alignment
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Chalk Held
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.08 · Within Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.33 · Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.24
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.76
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.139
Within Noise
00.1630.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st) 67.37% 51.75%
Chicago Bears 55.30% 17.74%
Philadelphia Eagles 26.51% 15.96%
Los Angeles Rams 28.74% 9.11%
New York Giants 3.67% 2.12%
Detroit Lions 6.46% 1.07%
San Francisco 49ers 7.17% 0.97%
Chicago Cardinals 1.33% 0.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.86% 0.36%
New York Yanks 2.17% 0.27%
Washington Redskins 0.27% 0.09%
Green Bay Packers 0.09% <0.01%
Baltimore Colts (1st) 0.08% <0.01%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore Colts (1st)Chicago BearsDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsNew York YanksSan Francisco 49ersChicago CardinalsCleveland Browns (1st)New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesPittsburgh SteelersWashington Redskins
Chicago Cardinals100.0%<0.01%33.5%0.52%56.4%0.12%100.0%<0.01%33.0%0.50%56.8%0.04%65.4%0.16%
Cleveland Browns (1st)97.6%0.04%74.6%37.01%88.1%4.28%98.3%0.06%74.6%20.20%91.2%1.43%90.0%4.36%
New York Giants100.0%<0.01%55.1%2.01%68.9%0.22%100.0%<0.01%53.4%1.08%81.0%0.04%80.8%0.31%
Philadelphia Eagles100.0%0.03%55.9%15.17%76.5%1.79%86.7%0.03%55.8%6.60%81.7%0.64%82.5%2.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers100.0%<0.01%36.8%0.46%65.6%0.03%100.0%<0.01%37.6%0.27%72.2%0.02%72.9%0.07%
Washington Redskins29.9%0.13%31.6%0.02%30.0%0.09%50.0%<0.01%60.0%0.02%
Baltimore Colts (1st)0.0%<0.01%2.4%0.04%0.0%<0.01%0.0%0.03%0.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears66.5%0.52%25.4%37.01%44.9%2.01%44.1%15.17%63.2%0.46%70.1%0.13%
Detroit Lions43.6%0.12%11.9%4.28%31.1%0.22%23.5%1.79%34.4%0.03%68.4%0.02%
Green Bay Packers0.0%<0.01%1.7%0.06%0.0%<0.01%13.3%0.03%0.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams67.0%0.50%25.4%20.20%46.6%1.08%44.2%6.60%62.4%0.27%70.0%0.09%
New York Yanks43.2%0.04%8.8%1.43%19.0%0.04%18.3%0.64%27.8%0.02%50.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers34.6%0.16%10.0%4.36%19.2%0.31%17.5%2.25%27.1%0.07%40.0%0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Won Super Bowl
New York Giants 55.25%
Chicago Bears 44.75%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Chicago BearsNew York Giants
New York Giants55.2%100.00%
Chicago Bears44.8%100.00%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

New York Giants 55.25% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Chicago Bears
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
55.25%
Chicago Bears 44.75% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. New York Giants
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
44.75%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1950-09-17 Washington Redskins L 14-38 1363.22 1446.05 45.47% 53.78% -42.02 0-1
1950-09-24 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 0-31 1321.20 1747.14 10.45% 89.24% -10.95 0-2
1950-10-02 @ Chicago Cardinals L 13-55 1310.25 1483.41 21.12% 78.35% -25.83 0-3
1950-10-15 Philadelphia Eagles L 14-24 1284.42 1701.60 10.93% 88.75% -6.50 0-4
1950-10-22 @ Los Angeles Rams L 27-70 1277.92 1580.88 11.30% 88.37% -13.94 0-5
1950-10-29 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-17 1263.98 1463.87 18.69% 80.83% -6.11 0-6
1950-11-05 Green Bay Packers W 41-21 1257.87 1300.12 51.30% 47.95% +40.44 1-6
1950-11-12 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-17 1298.31 1481.01 20.23% 79.26% -12.07 1-7
1950-11-19 New York Giants L 20-55 1286.24 1544.44 23.37% 76.07% -26.09 1-8
1950-11-26 @ Washington Redskins L 28-38 1260.15 1314.15 34.64% 64.67% -20.68 1-9
1950-12-03 Detroit Lions L 21-45 1239.47 1470.30 26.30% 73.11% -24.32 1-10
1950-12-10 @ New York Yanks L 14-51 1215.15 1405.18 19.56% 79.94% -22.44 1-11
1950-09-17 @ Los Angeles Rams W 24-20 1617.47 1558.80 50.32% 48.94% +18.45 1-0
1950-09-24 @ San Francisco 49ers W 32-20 1635.92 1601.70 46.80% 52.45% +34.24 2-0
1950-10-01 @ Green Bay Packers L 21-31 1670.16 1309.02 85.13% 14.47% -50.54 2-1
1950-10-08 Chicago Cardinals W 27-6 1619.62 1509.24 71.65% 27.73% +23.98 3-1
1950-10-15 Green Bay Packers W 28-14 1643.60 1326.19 89.20% 10.49% +7.39 4-1
1950-10-29 @ New York Yanks L 27-38 1650.99 1488.30 64.79% 34.52% -40.44 4-2
1950-11-05 @ Detroit Lions W 35-21 1610.55 1425.29 67.68% 31.66% +22.37 5-2
1950-11-12 New York Yanks W 28-20 1632.92 1528.74 70.93% 28.45% +15.19 6-2
1950-11-19 San Francisco 49ers W 17-0 1648.11 1448.05 80.85% 18.67% +14.51 7-2
1950-11-26 Los Angeles Rams W 24-14 1662.62 1670.23 56.25% 43.02% +25.67 8-2
1950-12-03 @ Chicago Cardinals L 10-20 1688.29 1471.02 71.55% 27.83% -42.55 8-3
1950-12-10 Detroit Lions W 6-3 1645.74 1494.62 76.14% 23.30% +7.62 9-3
1950-09-24 Philadelphia Eagles L 7-45 1538.66 1607.09 47.54% 51.72% -55.25 0-1
1950-10-02 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 55-13 1483.41 1310.25 78.35% 21.12% +25.83 1-1
1950-10-08 @ Chicago Bears L 6-27 1509.24 1619.62 27.73% 71.65% -23.99 1-2
1950-10-15 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 24-34 1485.25 1734.33 14.78% 84.82% -8.81 1-3
1950-10-22 @ Washington Redskins W 38-28 1476.44 1372.53 56.78% 42.49% +25.36 2-3
1950-10-29 New York Giants W 17-3 1501.80 1521.17 54.58% 44.68% +31.53 3-3
1950-11-05 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-10 1533.33 1732.90 29.91% 69.45% -9.78 3-4
1950-11-12 @ New York Giants L 21-51 1523.55 1497.26 45.67% 53.59% -47.18 3-5
1950-11-19 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 14-10 1476.37 1721.83 15.04% 84.55% +31.76 4-5
1950-11-23 Pittsburgh Steelers L 17-28 1508.13 1493.08 59.42% 39.86% -37.11 4-6
1950-12-03 Chicago Bears W 20-10 1471.02 1688.29 27.83% 71.55% +42.56 5-6
1950-12-10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-28 1513.58 1467.88 48.45% 50.80% -41.86 5-7
1950-09-16 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 35-10 1699.01 1655.22 48.18% 51.08% +48.13 1-0
1950-09-24 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 31-0 1747.14 1321.20 89.24% 10.45% +10.95 2-0
1950-10-01 New York Giants L 0-6 1758.09 1481.70 86.72% 12.91% -39.87 2-1
1950-10-07 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 30-17 1718.22 1462.95 75.76% 23.68% +16.11 3-1
1950-10-15 Chicago Cardinals W 34-24 1734.33 1485.25 84.82% 14.78% +8.80 4-1
1950-10-22 @ New York Giants L 13-17 1743.13 1492.88 75.23% 24.20% -28.28 4-2
1950-10-29 Pittsburgh Steelers W 45-7 1714.85 1476.12 84.04% 15.54% +18.05 5-2
1950-11-05 @ Chicago Cardinals W 10-7 1732.90 1533.33 69.45% 29.91% +9.78 6-2
1950-11-12 San Francisco 49ers W 34-14 1742.68 1458.51 87.22% 12.42% +10.46 7-2
1950-11-19 Washington Redskins W 20-14 1753.14 1316.72 94.22% 5.59% +2.57 8-2
1950-12-03 Philadelphia Eagles W 13-7 1755.71 1667.87 68.96% 30.39% +14.05 9-2
1950-12-10 @ Washington Redskins W 45-21 1769.76 1397.14 85.94% 13.67% +12.62 10-2
1950-09-17 @ Green Bay Packers W 45-7 1428.95 1303.58 59.77% 39.51% +45.97 1-0
1950-09-24 Pittsburgh Steelers W 10-7 1474.92 1424.74 64.17% 35.14% +11.49 2-0
1950-09-29 @ New York Yanks L 21-44 1486.41 1363.42 59.44% 39.84% -53.68 2-1
1950-10-08 San Francisco 49ers W 24-7 1432.73 1516.84 45.29% 53.97% +41.92 3-1
1950-10-15 Los Angeles Rams L 28-30 1474.65 1569.19 43.81% 55.45% -11.69 3-2
1950-10-22 @ San Francisco 49ers L 27-28 1462.96 1455.77 42.96% 56.30% -8.10 3-3
1950-10-29 @ Los Angeles Rams L 24-65 1454.86 1594.82 24.47% 74.96% -29.57 3-4
1950-11-05 Chicago Bears L 21-35 1425.29 1610.55 31.66% 67.68% -22.36 3-5
1950-11-19 Green Bay Packers W 24-21 1402.93 1245.59 76.78% 22.67% +7.41 4-5
1950-11-23 New York Yanks W 49-14 1410.34 1493.26 45.46% 53.80% +59.96 5-5
1950-12-03 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 45-21 1470.30 1239.47 73.11% 26.30% +24.32 6-5
1950-12-10 @ Chicago Bears L 3-6 1494.62 1645.74 23.30% 76.14% -7.62 6-6
1950-09-17 Detroit Lions L 7-45 1303.58 1428.95 39.51% 59.77% -45.97 0-1
1950-09-24 Washington Redskins W 35-21 1257.61 1488.07 26.34% 73.06% +51.41 1-1
1950-10-01 Chicago Bears W 31-21 1309.02 1670.16 14.47% 85.13% +50.54 2-1
1950-10-08 New York Yanks L 31-44 1359.56 1417.09 49.10% 50.15% -33.37 2-2
1950-10-15 @ Chicago Bears L 14-28 1326.19 1643.60 10.49% 89.20% -7.39 2-3
1950-10-19 @ New York Yanks L 17-35 1318.80 1469.62 23.33% 76.11% -18.68 2-4
1950-11-05 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) L 21-41 1300.12 1257.87 47.95% 51.30% -40.44 2-5
1950-11-12 Los Angeles Rams L 14-45 1259.68 1635.85 13.44% 86.18% -14.09 2-6
1950-11-19 @ Detroit Lions L 21-24 1245.59 1402.93 22.67% 76.78% -7.41 2-7
1950-11-26 San Francisco 49ers W 25-21 1238.18 1433.53 30.42% 68.93% +25.93 3-7
1950-12-03 @ Los Angeles Rams L 14-51 1264.11 1644.57 7.55% 92.21% -8.63 3-8
1950-12-10 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-30 1255.48 1407.60 23.20% 76.24% -17.51 3-9
1950-09-17 Chicago Bears L 20-24 1558.80 1617.47 48.94% 50.32% -18.45 0-1
1950-09-22 New York Yanks W 45-28 1540.35 1380.90 76.99% 22.46% +17.47 1-1
1950-10-01 @ San Francisco 49ers W 35-14 1557.82 1567.46 40.61% 58.67% +50.62 2-1
1950-10-07 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 20-56 1608.44 1662.34 34.66% 64.66% -39.25 2-2
1950-10-15 @ Detroit Lions W 30-28 1569.19 1474.65 55.45% 43.81% +11.69 3-2
1950-10-22 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 70-27 1580.88 1277.92 88.37% 11.30% +13.94 4-2
1950-10-29 Detroit Lions W 65-24 1594.82 1454.86 74.96% 24.47% +29.57 5-2
1950-11-05 San Francisco 49ers W 28-21 1624.39 1469.98 76.48% 22.97% +11.46 6-2
1950-11-12 @ Green Bay Packers W 45-14 1635.85 1259.68 86.18% 13.44% +14.09 7-2
1950-11-19 @ New York Yanks W 43-35 1649.94 1513.55 61.28% 38.01% +20.29 8-2
1950-11-26 @ Chicago Bears L 14-24 1670.23 1662.62 43.02% 56.25% -25.66 8-3
1950-12-03 Green Bay Packers W 51-14 1644.57 1264.11 92.21% 7.55% +8.63 9-3
1950-09-17 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 18-7 1444.37 1462.07 39.50% 59.78% +37.33 1-0
1950-10-01 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) W 6-0 1481.70 1758.09 12.91% 86.72% +39.87 2-0
1950-10-08 @ Washington Redskins W 21-17 1521.57 1386.97 61.04% 38.25% +14.44 3-0
1950-10-15 Pittsburgh Steelers L 6-17 1536.01 1446.84 69.13% 30.23% -43.13 3-1
1950-10-22 Cleveland Browns (1st) W 17-13 1492.88 1743.13 24.20% 75.23% +28.29 4-1
1950-10-29 @ Chicago Cardinals L 3-17 1521.17 1501.80 44.68% 54.58% -31.54 4-2
1950-11-05 Washington Redskins W 24-21 1489.63 1338.90 76.10% 23.34% +7.63 5-2
1950-11-12 Chicago Cardinals W 51-21 1497.26 1523.55 53.59% 45.67% +47.18 6-2
1950-11-19 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 55-20 1544.44 1286.24 76.07% 23.37% +26.10 7-2
1950-11-26 Philadelphia Eagles W 7-3 1570.54 1690.08 40.31% 58.96% +22.20 8-2
1950-12-03 New York Yanks W 51-7 1592.74 1433.30 76.99% 22.46% +28.12 9-2
1950-12-10 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 9-7 1620.86 1653.82 37.42% 61.87% +16.47 10-2
1950-09-17 @ San Francisco 49ers W 21-17 1348.10 1634.49 12.28% 87.36% +32.80 1-0
1950-09-22 @ Los Angeles Rams L 28-45 1380.90 1540.35 22.46% 76.99% -17.48 1-1
1950-09-29 Detroit Lions W 44-21 1363.42 1486.41 39.84% 59.44% +53.67 2-1
1950-10-08 @ Green Bay Packers W 44-31 1417.09 1359.56 50.15% 49.10% +33.38 3-1
1950-10-12 San Francisco 49ers W 29-24 1450.47 1474.92 53.85% 45.41% +19.15 4-1
1950-10-19 Green Bay Packers W 35-17 1469.62 1318.80 76.11% 23.33% +18.68 5-1
1950-10-29 Chicago Bears W 38-27 1488.30 1650.99 34.52% 64.79% +40.44 6-1
1950-11-12 @ Chicago Bears L 20-28 1528.74 1632.92 28.45% 70.93% -15.19 6-2
1950-11-19 Los Angeles Rams L 35-43 1513.55 1649.94 38.01% 61.28% -20.29 6-3
1950-11-23 @ Detroit Lions L 14-49 1493.26 1410.34 53.80% 45.46% -59.96 6-4
1950-12-03 @ New York Giants L 7-51 1433.30 1592.74 22.46% 76.99% -28.12 6-5
1950-12-10 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 51-14 1405.18 1215.15 79.94% 19.56% +22.44 7-5
1950-09-16 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 10-35 1655.22 1699.01 51.08% 48.18% -48.13 0-1
1950-09-24 @ Chicago Cardinals W 45-7 1607.09 1538.66 51.72% 47.54% +55.25 1-1
1950-10-07 Los Angeles Rams W 56-20 1662.34 1608.44 64.66% 34.66% +39.26 2-1
1950-10-15 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 24-14 1701.60 1284.42 88.75% 10.93% +6.51 3-1
1950-10-22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 17-10 1708.11 1489.97 71.65% 27.73% +13.85 4-1
1950-10-29 Washington Redskins W 35-3 1721.96 1347.17 91.98% 7.78% +8.27 5-1
1950-11-05 Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-9 1730.23 1458.07 86.44% 13.19% -22.95 5-2
1950-11-12 @ Washington Redskins W 33-0 1707.28 1331.27 86.17% 13.45% +14.55 6-2
1950-11-19 Chicago Cardinals L 10-14 1721.83 1476.37 84.55% 15.04% -31.75 6-3
1950-11-26 @ New York Giants L 3-7 1690.08 1570.54 58.96% 40.31% -22.21 6-4
1950-12-03 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-13 1667.87 1755.71 30.39% 68.96% -14.05 6-5
1950-12-10 New York Giants L 7-9 1653.82 1620.86 61.87% 37.42% -16.47 6-6
1950-09-17 New York Giants L 7-18 1462.07 1444.37 59.78% 39.50% -37.33 0-1
1950-09-24 @ Detroit Lions L 7-10 1424.74 1474.92 35.14% 64.17% -11.49 0-2
1950-10-01 @ Washington Redskins W 26-7 1413.25 1436.67 38.72% 60.57% +49.70 1-2
1950-10-07 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 17-30 1462.95 1718.22 23.68% 75.76% -16.11 1-3
1950-10-15 @ New York Giants W 17-6 1446.84 1536.01 30.23% 69.13% +43.13 2-3
1950-10-22 Philadelphia Eagles L 10-17 1489.97 1708.11 27.73% 71.65% -13.85 2-4
1950-10-29 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-45 1476.12 1714.85 15.54% 84.04% -18.05 2-5
1950-11-05 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 9-7 1458.07 1730.23 13.19% 86.44% +22.94 3-5
1950-11-12 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 17-7 1481.01 1298.31 79.26% 20.23% +12.07 4-5
1950-11-23 @ Chicago Cardinals W 28-17 1493.08 1508.13 39.86% 59.42% +37.10 5-5
1950-12-03 Washington Redskins L 7-24 1530.18 1334.83 80.43% 19.09% -62.30 5-6
1950-12-10 Chicago Cardinals W 28-7 1467.88 1513.58 50.80% 48.45% +41.86 6-6
1950-09-17 New York Yanks L 17-21 1634.49 1348.10 87.36% 12.28% -32.79 0-1
1950-09-24 Chicago Bears L 20-32 1601.70 1635.92 52.45% 46.80% -34.24 0-2
1950-10-01 Los Angeles Rams L 14-35 1567.46 1557.82 58.67% 40.61% -50.62 0-3
1950-10-08 @ Detroit Lions L 7-24 1516.84 1432.73 53.97% 45.29% -41.92 0-4
1950-10-12 @ New York Yanks L 24-29 1474.92 1450.47 45.41% 53.85% -19.15 0-5
1950-10-22 Detroit Lions W 28-27 1455.77 1462.96 56.30% 42.96% +8.10 1-5
1950-10-29 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 17-14 1463.87 1263.98 80.83% 18.69% +6.11 2-5
1950-11-05 @ Los Angeles Rams L 21-28 1469.98 1624.39 22.97% 76.48% -11.47 2-6
1950-11-12 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 14-34 1458.51 1742.68 12.42% 87.22% -10.46 2-7
1950-11-19 @ Chicago Bears L 0-17 1448.05 1648.11 18.67% 80.85% -14.52 2-8
1950-11-26 @ Green Bay Packers L 21-25 1433.53 1238.18 68.93% 30.42% -25.93 2-9
1950-12-10 Green Bay Packers W 30-14 1407.60 1255.48 76.24% 23.20% +17.51 3-9
1950-09-17 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) W 38-14 1446.05 1363.22 53.78% 45.47% +42.02 1-0
1950-09-24 @ Green Bay Packers L 21-35 1488.07 1257.61 73.06% 26.34% -51.40 1-1
1950-10-01 Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-26 1436.67 1413.25 60.57% 38.72% -49.70 1-2
1950-10-08 New York Giants L 17-21 1386.97 1521.57 38.25% 61.04% -14.44 1-3
1950-10-22 Chicago Cardinals L 28-38 1372.53 1476.44 42.49% 56.78% -25.36 1-4
1950-10-29 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 3-35 1347.17 1721.96 7.78% 91.98% -8.27 1-5
1950-11-05 @ New York Giants L 21-24 1338.90 1489.63 23.34% 76.10% -7.63 1-6
1950-11-12 Philadelphia Eagles L 0-33 1331.27 1707.28 13.45% 86.17% -14.55 1-7
1950-11-19 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 14-20 1316.72 1753.14 5.59% 94.22% -2.57 1-8
1950-11-26 Baltimore Colts (1st) W 38-28 1314.15 1260.15 64.67% 34.64% +20.68 2-8
1950-12-03 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 24-7 1334.83 1530.18 19.09% 80.43% +62.31 3-8
1950-12-10 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 21-45 1397.14 1769.76 13.67% 85.94% -12.62 3-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1950-12-17 @ Los Angeles Rams L 14-24 1653.36 1653.20 42.33% 57.67% -25.05 0-1
1950-12-17 New York Giants W 8-3 1782.38 1637.33 75.86% 24.14% +10.10 1-0
1950-12-24 Los Angeles Rams W 30-28 1792.48 1678.24 72.47% 27.53% +7.29 2-0
1950-12-17 Chicago Bears W 24-14 1653.20 1653.36 57.67% 42.33% +25.04 1-0
1950-12-24 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 28-30 1678.24 1792.48 27.53% 72.47% -7.28 1-1
1950-12-17 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 3-8 1637.33 1782.38 24.14% 75.86% -10.10 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-09-17 12.28% New York Yanks 1348.10 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 1634.49 17
2 1950-10-01 12.91% New York Giants 1481.70 6 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 1758.09 0
3 1950-11-05 13.19% Pittsburgh Steelers 1458.07 9 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1730.23 7
4 1950-10-01 14.47% @ Green Bay Packers 1309.02 31 Chicago Bears 1670.16 21
5 1950-11-19 15.04% Chicago Cardinals 1476.37 14 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1721.83 10
6 1950-12-03 19.09% Washington Redskins 1334.83 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1530.18 7
7 1950-10-22 24.20% @ New York Giants 1492.88 17 Cleveland Browns (1st) 1743.13 13
8 1950-09-24 26.34% @ Green Bay Packers 1257.61 35 Washington Redskins 1488.07 21
9 1950-12-03 27.83% @ Chicago Cardinals 1471.02 20 Chicago Bears 1688.29 10
10 1950-10-15 30.23% Pittsburgh Steelers 1446.84 17 @ New York Giants 1536.01 6
11 1950-11-26 30.42% @ Green Bay Packers 1238.18 25 San Francisco 49ers 1433.53 21
12 1950-10-29 34.52% @ New York Yanks 1488.30 38 Chicago Bears 1650.99 27
13 1950-12-10 37.42% New York Giants 1620.86 9 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1653.82 7
14 1950-10-01 38.72% Pittsburgh Steelers 1413.25 26 @ Washington Redskins 1436.67 7
15 1950-09-17 39.50% New York Giants 1444.37 18 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1462.07 7
16 1950-09-29 39.84% @ New York Yanks 1363.42 44 Detroit Lions 1486.41 21
17 1950-11-23 39.86% Pittsburgh Steelers 1493.08 28 @ Chicago Cardinals 1508.13 17
18 1950-11-26 40.31% @ New York Giants 1570.54 7 Philadelphia Eagles 1690.08 3
19 1950-10-01 40.61% Los Angeles Rams 1557.82 35 @ San Francisco 49ers 1567.46 14
20 1950-10-08 45.29% @ Detroit Lions 1432.73 24 San Francisco 49ers 1516.84 7
21 1950-11-23 45.46% @ Detroit Lions 1410.34 49 New York Yanks 1493.26 14
22 1950-09-24 46.80% Chicago Bears 1635.92 32 @ San Francisco 49ers 1601.70 20
23 1950-09-16 48.18% Cleveland Browns (1st) 1699.01 35 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1655.22 10

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-12-03 62.31 Washington Redskins 24 1334.83 19.09% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7 1530.18 80.43%
2 1950-11-23 59.96 @ Detroit Lions 49 1410.34 45.46% New York Yanks 14 1493.26 53.80%
3 1950-09-24 55.25 Philadelphia Eagles 45 1607.09 51.72% @ Chicago Cardinals 7 1538.66 47.54%
4 1950-09-29 53.68 @ New York Yanks 44 1363.42 39.84% Detroit Lions 21 1486.41 59.44%
5 1950-09-24 51.41 @ Green Bay Packers 35 1257.61 26.34% Washington Redskins 21 1488.07 73.06%
6 1950-10-01 50.62 Los Angeles Rams 35 1557.82 40.61% @ San Francisco 49ers 14 1567.46 58.67%
7 1950-10-01 50.54 @ Green Bay Packers 31 1309.02 14.47% Chicago Bears 21 1670.16 85.13%
8 1950-10-01 49.70 Pittsburgh Steelers 26 1413.25 38.72% @ Washington Redskins 7 1436.67 60.57%
9 1950-09-16 48.13 Cleveland Browns (1st) 35 1699.01 48.18% @ Philadelphia Eagles 10 1655.22 51.08%
10 1950-11-12 47.18 @ New York Giants 51 1497.26 53.59% Chicago Cardinals 21 1523.55 45.67%
11 1950-09-17 45.97 Detroit Lions 45 1428.95 59.77% @ Green Bay Packers 7 1303.58 39.51%
12 1950-10-15 43.13 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 1446.84 30.23% @ New York Giants 6 1536.01 69.13%
13 1950-12-03 42.56 @ Chicago Cardinals 20 1471.02 27.83% Chicago Bears 10 1688.29 71.55%
14 1950-09-17 42.02 Washington Redskins 38 1446.05 53.78% @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 14 1363.22 45.47%
15 1950-10-08 41.92 @ Detroit Lions 24 1432.73 45.29% San Francisco 49ers 7 1516.84 53.97%
16 1950-12-10 41.86 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 28 1467.88 50.80% Chicago Cardinals 7 1513.58 48.45%
17 1950-10-29 40.44 @ New York Yanks 38 1488.30 34.52% Chicago Bears 27 1650.99 64.79%
18 1950-11-05 40.44 @ Baltimore Colts (1st) 41 1257.87 51.30% Green Bay Packers 21 1300.12 47.95%
19 1950-10-01 39.87 New York Giants 6 1481.70 12.91% @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 0 1758.09 86.72%
20 1950-10-07 39.26 @ Philadelphia Eagles 56 1662.34 64.66% Los Angeles Rams 20 1608.44 34.66%
21 1950-09-17 37.33 New York Giants 18 1444.37 39.50% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 7 1462.07 59.78%
22 1950-11-23 37.11 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 1493.08 39.86% @ Chicago Cardinals 17 1508.13 59.42%
23 1950-09-24 34.24 Chicago Bears 32 1635.92 46.80% @ San Francisco 49ers 20 1601.70 52.45%
24 1950-10-08 33.38 New York Yanks 44 1417.09 50.15% @ Green Bay Packers 31 1359.56 49.10%
25 1950-09-17 32.80 New York Yanks 21 1348.10 12.28% @ San Francisco 49ers 17 1634.49 87.36%