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1943 NFL Season

40 regular-season games · 3 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

6th Title

Last Title: 1941

Runner-Up

Washington Redskins

5th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1942

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

1.75 wins above expected

7 wins · 5.75 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

2.94 wins below expected

0 wins · 2.94 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Giants Division 6 3 1 .650 — 197 170 +27 5.27 +1.23
2 Washington Redskins Playoffs 6 3 1 .650 — 229 137 +92 6.70 -0.20
3 Phil Pitt Steagles 5 4 1 .550 1 225 230 -5 5.20 +0.30
4 Brooklyn Dodgers 2 8 0 .200 4.5 65 234 -169 3.58 -1.58
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Chicago Bears Division 8 1 1 .850 — 303 157 +146 6.97 +1.53
2 Green Bay Packers 7 2 1 .750 1 264 172 +92 5.75 +1.75
3 Detroit Lions 3 6 1 .350 5 178 218 -40 3.60 -0.10
4 Chicago Cardinals 0 10 0 .000 8.5 95 238 -143 2.94 -2.94

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

Division Playoff

Washington Redskins 28
New York Giants 0

Dec 19

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 41
Washington Redskins 21

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Chicago Bears West 1676 8.5 6.97 +1.53 91.69% 1 4 6 7 8 9 10
Green Bay Packers West 1608 7.5 5.75 +1.75 92.64% 0 3 4 5 6 8 10
Washington Redskins East 1578 6.5 6.70 -0.20 53.89% 1 4 5 6 7 9 10
New York Giants East 1543 6.5 5.27 +1.23 85.88% 0 2 4 5 6 7 10
Phil Pitt Steagles East 1504 5.5 5.20 +0.30 67.90% 0 2 4 5 6 7 10
Detroit Lions West 1392 3.5 3.60 -0.10 59.63% 0 1 2 3 4 6 10
Brooklyn Dodgers East 1365 2 3.58 -1.58 32.51% 0 1 2 3 4 6 10
Chicago Cardinals West 1332 0 2.94 -2.94 4.54% 0 1 2 3 3 5 8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Dodgers Giants Steagles Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers —
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
New York Giants
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.6 exp.)
Phil Pitt Steagles
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
1-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Bears Cardinals Lions Packers
Brooklyn Dodgers
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
New York Giants
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Phil Pitt Steagles
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)

Within West

Team Bears Cardinals Lions Packers
Chicago Bears —
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Dodgers Giants Steagles Redskins
Chicago Bears
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
Chicago Cardinals
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Green Bay Packers 7.5 5.75 +1.75
2 Chicago Bears 8.5 6.97 +1.53
3 New York Giants 6.5 5.27 +1.23
4 Phil Pitt Steagles 5.5 5.20 +0.30
5 Detroit Lions 3.5 3.60 -0.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Chicago Cardinals 0 2.94 -2.94
2 Brooklyn Dodgers 2 3.58 -1.58
3 Washington Redskins 6.5 6.70 -0.20
4 Detroit Lions 3.5 3.60 -0.10
5 Phil Pitt Steagles 5.5 5.20 +0.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 New York Giants 4 Nov 21 – Dec 12 1 in 20
2 Chicago Bears 7 Oct 3 – Nov 14 1 in 12
3 Washington Redskins 4 Oct 10 – Oct 31 1 in 7
4 Green Bay Packers 3 Nov 14 – Dec 5 1 in 5
5 Brooklyn Dodgers 2 Nov 7 – Nov 14 1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chicago Cardinals 10 Sep 19 – Nov 28 1 in 76
2 Washington Redskins 3 Nov 28 – Dec 12 1 in 57
3 Brooklyn Dodgers 6 Sep 26 – Oct 31 1 in 16
4 Green Bay Packers 1 Oct 17 – Oct 17 1 in 3
5 Phil Pitt Steagles 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Washington Redskins59.87%24.87%11.84%3.42%
New York Giants19.51%32.50%31.86%16.13%
Phil Pitt Steagles17.58%32.44%33.41%16.57%
Brooklyn Dodgers3.04%10.19%22.89%63.88%
Team1234
Chicago Bears69.10%25.70%4.69%0.51%
Green Bay Packers27.22%52.29%16.28%4.21%
Detroit Lions2.74%14.85%46.90%35.51%
Chicago Cardinals0.94%7.16%32.13%59.77%
Team12345678
Chicago Bears38.97%27.88%15.53%10.02%4.51%2.13%0.85%0.11%
Washington Redskins31.02%27.16%17.14%11.70%7.48%3.69%1.47%0.34%
Green Bay Packers13.25%16.15%21.25%21.32%12.67%8.84%4.36%2.16%
New York Giants8.34%12.40%17.52%17.93%18.72%12.67%8.39%4.03%
Phil Pitt Steagles6.67%11.72%17.56%18.02%20.20%13.14%8.72%3.97%
Detroit Lions0.78%1.96%4.54%8.61%14.47%23.34%22.84%23.46%
Brooklyn Dodgers0.76%2.17%4.60%8.31%13.20%18.71%28.93%23.32%
Chicago Cardinals0.21%0.56%1.86%4.09%8.75%17.48%24.44%42.61%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Washington Redskins59.87%40.13%
New York Giants19.51%80.49%
Phil Pitt Steagles17.58%82.42%
Brooklyn Dodgers3.04%96.96%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Chicago Bears69.10%30.90%
Green Bay Packers27.22%72.78%
Detroit Lions2.74%97.26%
Chicago Cardinals0.94%99.06%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears 69.10% 52.09%
Green Bay Packers 27.22% 18.76%
Washington Redskins 59.87% 18.32%
New York Giants 19.51% 5.30%
Phil Pitt Steagles 17.58% 3.91%
Detroit Lions 2.74% 1.00%
Brooklyn Dodgers 3.04% 0.33%
Chicago Cardinals 0.94% 0.29%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Brooklyn DodgersChicago BearsChicago CardinalsDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersNew York GiantsPhil Pitt SteaglesWashington Redskins
Brooklyn Dodgers0.19%0.02%0.04%0.08%
Chicago Bears1.88%9.87%9.95%30.39%
Chicago Cardinals0.01%0.04%0.02%0.22%
Detroit Lions0.05%0.16%0.24%0.55%
Green Bay Packers0.77%4.14%3.46%10.39%
New York Giants3.22%0.17%0.35%1.56%
Phil Pitt Steagles2.45%0.08%0.27%1.11%
Washington Redskins11.15%0.38%1.08%5.71%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears 73.56%
Washington Redskins 26.44%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Chicago BearsWashington Redskins
Chicago Bears73.56%
Washington Redskins26.44%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Chicago Bears 73.56% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Washington Redskins
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
73.56%
Washington Redskins 26.44% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Chicago Bears
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
26.44%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1943-09-26 @ Detroit Lions L 0-27 1446.96 1405.95 40.53% 51.47% -20.22 0-1
1943-10-02 @ Phil Pitt Steagles L 0-17 1426.74 1500.00 26.08% 66.08% -10.58 0-2
1943-10-10 @ Washington Redskins L 0-27 1416.16 1566.98 18.45% 73.92% -9.54 0-3
1943-10-17 New York Giants L 0-20 1406.62 1492.87 45.03% 46.96% -19.19 0-4
1943-10-24 @ Chicago Bears L 21-33 1387.43 1642.77 11.10% 81.68% -3.85 0-5
1943-10-31 Washington Redskins L 10-48 1383.58 1606.80 27.10% 65.04% -16.41 0-6
1943-11-07 Chicago Cardinals W 7-0 1367.17 1358.73 58.18% 33.87% +8.71 1-6
1943-11-14 Phil Pitt Steagles W 13-7 1375.88 1503.29 39.23% 52.78% +12.18 2-6
1943-11-21 Green Bay Packers L 7-31 1388.06 1579.76 30.82% 61.26% -14.74 2-7
1943-11-28 @ New York Giants L 7-24 1373.32 1493.18 21.26% 71.01% -8.70 2-8
1943-09-26 @ Green Bay Packers T 21-21 1618.34 1550.00 44.39% 47.60% +0.07 0-0
1943-10-03 @ Detroit Lions W 27-21 1618.41 1426.18 61.33% 30.76% +7.36 1-0
1943-10-10 Chicago Cardinals W 20-0 1625.77 1390.04 80.45% 12.25% +5.48 2-0
1943-10-17 Phil Pitt Steagles W 48-21 1631.25 1523.03 69.84% 22.40% +11.52 3-0
1943-10-24 Brooklyn Dodgers W 33-21 1642.77 1387.43 81.68% 11.10% +3.85 4-0
1943-10-31 Detroit Lions W 35-14 1646.62 1406.14 80.75% 11.96% +5.49 5-0
1943-11-07 Green Bay Packers W 21-7 1652.11 1583.59 65.54% 26.61% +9.78 6-0
1943-11-14 @ New York Giants W 56-7 1661.89 1511.32 55.94% 36.09% +24.45 7-0
1943-11-21 @ Washington Redskins L 7-21 1686.34 1629.10 42.81% 49.18% -15.32 7-1
1943-11-28 @ Chicago Cardinals W 35-24 1671.02 1337.76 75.92% 16.53% +5.47 8-1
1943-09-19 @ Detroit Lions L 17-35 1422.51 1389.88 39.37% 52.64% -16.07 0-1
1943-10-03 Green Bay Packers L 7-28 1406.44 1549.93 37.04% 54.98% -16.40 0-2
1943-10-10 @ Chicago Bears L 0-20 1390.04 1625.77 12.25% 80.45% -5.48 0-3
1943-10-17 Detroit Lions L 0-7 1384.56 1410.28 53.60% 38.42% -13.35 0-4
1943-10-24 @ Washington Redskins L 7-13 1371.21 1603.75 12.44% 80.24% -3.05 0-5
1943-10-31 @ Phil Pitt Steagles L 13-34 1368.16 1493.61 20.74% 71.56% -9.43 0-6
1943-11-07 @ Brooklyn Dodgers L 0-7 1358.73 1367.17 33.87% 58.18% -8.70 0-7
1943-11-14 @ Green Bay Packers L 14-35 1350.03 1573.80 12.99% 79.65% -5.96 0-8
1943-11-21 @ New York Giants L 13-24 1344.07 1486.87 19.15% 73.19% -6.31 0-9
1943-11-28 Chicago Bears L 24-35 1337.76 1671.02 16.53% 75.92% -5.47 0-10
1943-09-19 Chicago Cardinals W 35-17 1389.88 1422.51 52.64% 39.37% +16.07 1-0
1943-09-26 Brooklyn Dodgers W 27-0 1405.95 1446.96 51.47% 40.53% +20.23 2-0
1943-10-03 Chicago Bears L 21-27 1426.18 1618.41 30.76% 61.33% -7.36 2-1
1943-10-10 @ Green Bay Packers L 14-35 1418.82 1566.33 18.74% 73.62% -8.54 2-2
1943-10-17 @ Chicago Cardinals W 7-0 1410.28 1384.56 38.42% 53.60% +13.35 3-2
1943-10-24 Green Bay Packers L 6-27 1423.63 1547.64 39.70% 52.30% -17.49 3-3
1943-10-31 @ Chicago Bears L 14-35 1406.14 1646.62 11.96% 80.75% -5.49 3-4
1943-11-07 New York Giants T 0-0 1400.65 1511.51 41.53% 50.46% +0.20 3-4
1943-11-14 @ Washington Redskins L 20-42 1400.85 1622.96 13.10% 79.53% -6.15 3-5
1943-11-21 @ Phil Pitt Steagles L 34-35 1394.70 1491.10 23.60% 68.61% -2.33 3-6
1943-09-26 Chicago Bears T 21-21 1550.00 1618.34 47.60% 44.39% -0.07 0-0
1943-10-03 @ Chicago Cardinals W 28-7 1549.93 1406.44 54.98% 37.04% +16.40 1-0
1943-10-10 Detroit Lions W 35-14 1566.33 1418.82 73.62% 18.74% +8.54 2-0
1943-10-17 Washington Redskins L 7-33 1574.87 1576.52 56.85% 35.19% -27.23 2-1
1943-10-24 @ Detroit Lions W 27-6 1547.64 1423.63 52.30% 39.70% +17.50 3-1
1943-10-31 @ New York Giants W 35-21 1565.14 1529.96 39.72% 52.29% +18.45 4-1
1943-11-07 @ Chicago Bears L 7-21 1583.59 1652.11 26.61% 65.54% -9.79 4-2
1943-11-14 Chicago Cardinals W 35-14 1573.80 1350.03 79.65% 12.99% +5.96 5-2
1943-11-21 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 31-7 1579.76 1388.06 61.26% 30.82% +14.74 6-2
1943-12-05 @ Phil Pitt Steagles W 38-28 1594.50 1518.37 45.51% 46.48% +13.97 7-2
1943-10-09 @ Phil Pitt Steagles L 14-28 1505.32 1510.58 34.28% 57.76% -12.45 0-1
1943-10-17 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 20-0 1492.87 1406.62 46.96% 45.03% +19.18 1-1
1943-10-24 Phil Pitt Steagles W 42-14 1512.05 1511.51 57.14% 34.90% +17.91 2-1
1943-10-31 Green Bay Packers L 21-35 1529.96 1565.14 52.29% 39.72% -18.45 2-2
1943-11-07 @ Detroit Lions T 0-0 1511.51 1400.65 50.46% 41.53% -0.19 2-2
1943-11-14 Chicago Bears L 7-56 1511.32 1661.89 36.09% 55.94% -24.45 2-3
1943-11-21 Chicago Cardinals W 24-13 1486.87 1344.07 73.19% 19.15% +6.31 3-3
1943-11-28 Brooklyn Dodgers W 24-7 1493.18 1373.32 71.01% 21.26% +8.69 4-3
1943-12-05 Washington Redskins W 14-10 1501.87 1619.49 40.59% 51.41% +9.71 5-3
1943-12-12 @ Washington Redskins W 31-7 1511.58 1609.78 23.42% 68.80% +31.53 6-3
1943-10-02 Brooklyn Dodgers W 17-0 1500.00 1426.74 66.08% 26.08% +10.58 1-0
1943-10-09 New York Giants W 28-14 1510.58 1505.32 57.76% 34.28% +12.45 2-0
1943-10-17 @ Chicago Bears L 21-48 1523.03 1631.25 22.40% 69.84% -11.52 2-1
1943-10-24 @ New York Giants L 14-42 1511.51 1512.05 34.90% 57.14% -17.90 2-2
1943-10-31 Chicago Cardinals W 34-13 1493.61 1368.16 71.56% 20.74% +9.42 3-2
1943-11-07 Washington Redskins T 14-14 1503.03 1623.21 40.23% 51.77% +0.26 3-2
1943-11-14 @ Brooklyn Dodgers L 7-13 1503.29 1375.88 52.78% 39.23% -12.19 3-3
1943-11-21 Detroit Lions W 35-34 1491.10 1394.70 68.61% 23.60% +2.33 4-3
1943-11-28 @ Washington Redskins W 27-14 1493.43 1644.42 18.44% 73.93% +24.94 5-3
1943-12-05 Green Bay Packers L 28-38 1518.37 1594.50 46.48% 45.51% -13.97 5-4
1943-10-10 Brooklyn Dodgers W 27-0 1566.98 1416.16 73.92% 18.45% +9.54 1-0
1943-10-17 @ Green Bay Packers W 33-7 1576.52 1574.87 35.19% 56.85% +27.23 2-0
1943-10-24 Chicago Cardinals W 13-7 1603.75 1371.21 80.24% 12.44% +3.05 3-0
1943-10-31 @ Brooklyn Dodgers W 48-10 1606.80 1383.58 65.04% 27.10% +16.41 4-0
1943-11-07 @ Phil Pitt Steagles T 14-14 1623.21 1503.03 51.77% 40.23% -0.25 4-0
1943-11-14 Detroit Lions W 42-20 1622.96 1400.85 79.53% 13.10% +6.14 5-0
1943-11-21 Chicago Bears W 21-7 1629.10 1686.34 49.18% 42.81% +15.32 6-0
1943-11-28 Phil Pitt Steagles L 14-27 1644.42 1493.43 73.93% 18.44% -24.93 6-1
1943-12-05 @ New York Giants L 10-14 1619.49 1501.87 51.41% 40.59% -9.71 6-2
1943-12-12 New York Giants L 7-31 1609.78 1511.58 68.80% 23.42% -31.53 6-3

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1943-12-26 Washington Redskins W 41-21 1676.49 1604.34 70.54% 29.46% +11.53 1-0
1943-12-19 Washington Redskins L 0-28 1543.11 1578.25 56.35% 43.65% -26.09 0-1
1943-12-19 @ New York Giants W 28-0 1578.25 1543.11 43.65% 56.35% +26.09 1-0
1943-12-26 @ Chicago Bears L 21-41 1604.34 1676.49 29.46% 70.54% -11.52 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1943-11-28 18.44% Phil Pitt Steagles 1493.43 27 @ Washington Redskins 1644.42 14
2 1943-12-12 23.42% New York Giants 1511.58 31 @ Washington Redskins 1609.78 7
3 1943-10-17 35.19% Washington Redskins 1576.52 33 @ Green Bay Packers 1574.87 7
4 1943-10-17 38.42% Detroit Lions 1410.28 7 @ Chicago Cardinals 1384.56 0
5 1943-11-14 39.23% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 1375.88 13 Phil Pitt Steagles 1503.29 7
6 1943-10-31 39.72% Green Bay Packers 1565.14 35 @ New York Giants 1529.96 21
7 1943-12-05 40.59% @ New York Giants 1501.87 14 Washington Redskins 1619.49 10
8 1943-12-19 * 43.65% Washington Redskins 1578.25 28 @ New York Giants 1543.11 0
9 1943-12-05 45.51% Green Bay Packers 1594.50 38 @ Phil Pitt Steagles 1518.37 28

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-12-12 31.53 New York Giants 31 1511.58 23.42% @ Washington Redskins 7 1609.78 68.80%
2 1943-10-17 27.23 Washington Redskins 33 1576.52 35.19% @ Green Bay Packers 7 1574.87 56.85%
3 1943-12-19 * 26.09 Washington Redskins 28 1578.25 43.65% @ New York Giants 0 1543.11 56.35%
4 1943-11-28 24.94 Phil Pitt Steagles 27 1493.43 18.44% @ Washington Redskins 14 1644.42 73.93%
5 1943-11-14 24.45 Chicago Bears 56 1661.89 55.94% @ New York Giants 7 1511.32 36.09%
6 1943-09-26 20.23 @ Detroit Lions 27 1405.95 51.47% Brooklyn Dodgers 0 1446.96 40.53%
7 1943-10-17 19.19 New York Giants 20 1492.87 46.96% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 0 1406.62 45.03%
8 1943-10-31 18.45 Green Bay Packers 35 1565.14 39.72% @ New York Giants 21 1529.96 52.29%
9 1943-10-24 17.91 @ New York Giants 42 1512.05 57.14% Phil Pitt Steagles 14 1511.51 34.90%
10 1943-10-24 17.50 Green Bay Packers 27 1547.64 52.30% @ Detroit Lions 6 1423.63 39.70%
11 1943-10-31 16.41 Washington Redskins 48 1606.80 65.04% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 10 1383.58 27.10%
12 1943-10-03 16.40 Green Bay Packers 28 1549.93 54.98% @ Chicago Cardinals 7 1406.44 37.04%
13 1943-09-19 16.07 @ Detroit Lions 35 1389.88 52.64% Chicago Cardinals 17 1422.51 39.37%
14 1943-11-21 15.32 @ Washington Redskins 21 1629.10 49.18% Chicago Bears 7 1686.34 42.81%
15 1943-11-21 14.74 Green Bay Packers 31 1579.76 61.26% @ Brooklyn Dodgers 7 1388.06 30.82%
16 1943-12-05 13.97 Green Bay Packers 38 1594.50 45.51% @ Phil Pitt Steagles 28 1518.37 46.48%
17 1943-10-17 13.35 Detroit Lions 7 1410.28 38.42% @ Chicago Cardinals 0 1384.56 53.60%
18 1943-10-09 12.45 @ Phil Pitt Steagles 28 1510.58 57.76% New York Giants 14 1505.32 34.28%
19 1943-11-14 12.19 @ Brooklyn Dodgers 13 1375.88 39.23% Phil Pitt Steagles 7 1503.29 52.78%
20 1943-12-26 * 11.53 @ Chicago Bears 41 1676.49 70.54% Washington Redskins 21 1604.34 29.46%
21 1943-10-17 11.52 @ Chicago Bears 48 1631.25 69.84% Phil Pitt Steagles 21 1523.03 22.40%
22 1943-10-02 10.58 @ Phil Pitt Steagles 17 1500.00 66.08% Brooklyn Dodgers 0 1426.74 26.08%
23 1943-11-07 9.79 @ Chicago Bears 21 1652.11 65.54% Green Bay Packers 7 1583.59 26.61%
24 1943-12-05 9.71 @ New York Giants 14 1501.87 40.59% Washington Redskins 10 1619.49 51.41%
25 1943-10-10 9.54 @ Washington Redskins 27 1566.98 73.92% Brooklyn Dodgers 0 1416.16 18.45%