1942 NFL Season
55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Washington Redskins
2nd Title
Last Title: 1937
Runner-Up
Chicago Bears
6th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1941
Biggest Overachiever
Chicago Bears
3.14 wins above expected
11 wins · 7.86 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Detroit Lions
3.87 wins below expected
0 wins · 3.87 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Redskins Division | 10 | 1 | 0 | .909 | — | 227 | 102 | +125 | 6.88 | +3.12 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 4 | 0 | .636 | 3 | 167 | 119 | +48 | 4.88 | +2.12 |
| 3 | New York Giants | 5 | 5 | 1 | .500 | 4.5 | 155 | 139 | +16 | 5.94 | -0.44 |
| 4 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 3 | 8 | 0 | .273 | 7 | 100 | 168 | -68 | 5.62 | -2.62 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 9 | 0 | .182 | 8 | 134 | 239 | -105 | 4.08 | -2.08 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears Division | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | — | 376 | 84 | +292 | 7.86 | +3.14 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 2 | 1 | .773 | 2.5 | 300 | 215 | +85 | 6.71 | +1.79 |
| 3 | Cleveland Rams | 5 | 6 | 0 | .455 | 6 | 150 | 207 | -57 | 4.58 | +0.42 |
| 4 | Chicago Cardinals | 3 | 8 | 0 | .273 | 8 | 98 | 209 | -111 | 4.59 | -1.59 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 11 | 0 | .000 | 11 | 38 | 263 | -225 | 3.87 | -3.87 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | West | 1716 | 11 | 7.86 | +3.14 | 100.00% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1609 | 10 | 6.88 | +3.12 | 99.56% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1600 | 8.5 | 6.71 | +1.79 | 89.30% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1525 | 5.5 | 5.94 | -0.44 | 42.19% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1499 | 7 | 4.88 | +2.12 | 95.77% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 | |
| Cleveland Rams | West | 1464 | 5 | 4.58 | +0.42 | 74.97% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | East | 1440 | 3 | 5.62 | -2.62 | 10.87% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Chicago Cardinals | West | 1410 | 3 | 4.59 | -1.59 | 28.15% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1385 | 2 | 4.08 | -2.08 | 17.35% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1353 | 0 | 3.87 | -3.87 | 0.92% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within East
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | — |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
| New York Giants |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
0-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 11 | 7.86 | +3.14 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 10 | 6.88 | +3.12 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 4.88 | +2.12 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 8.5 | 6.71 | +1.79 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 5 | 4.58 | +0.42 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 0 | 3.87 | -3.87 |
| 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 3 | 5.62 | -2.62 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 4.08 | -2.08 |
| 4 | Chicago Cardinals | 3 | 4.59 | -1.59 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 5.5 | 5.94 | -0.44 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Redskins | 9 | Oct 4 – Nov 29 | 1 in 72 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 11 | Sep 27 – Dec 6 | 1 in 54 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | Oct 4 – Nov 8 | 1 in 16 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | Nov 1 – Nov 29 | 1 in 16 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 2 | Sep 20 – Sep 27 | 1 in 4 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 11 | Sep 20 – Nov 29 | 1 in 178 |
| 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 6 | Nov 1 – Dec 6 | 1 in 61 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | Sep 20 – Nov 8 | 1 in 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Cardinals | 6 | Oct 25 – Dec 6 | 1 in 22 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 3 | Oct 18 – Nov 1 | 1 in 9 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 47.74% | 25.09% | 15.11% | 8.63% | 3.43% |
| New York Giants | 22.25% | 25.54% | 23.54% | 17.71% | 10.96% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 17.16% | 24.32% | 24.08% | 21.24% | 13.20% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.43% | 16.11% | 22.54% | 26.86% | 25.06% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3.42% | 8.94% | 14.73% | 25.56% | 47.35% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 62.50% | 26.15% | 8.20% | 2.54% | 0.61% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.47% | 41.38% | 19.02% | 8.17% | 2.96% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 3.81% | 12.75% | 27.40% | 29.71% | 26.33% |
| Cleveland Rams | 3.72% | 12.74% | 27.50% | 29.84% | 26.20% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.50% | 6.98% | 17.88% | 29.74% | 43.90% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 43.16% | 22.40% | 14.43% | 9.06% | 4.36% | 3.47% | 1.54% | 0.98% | 0.47% | 0.13% |
| Washington Redskins | 18.15% | 24.41% | 16.31% | 13.10% | 9.81% | 7.09% | 4.79% | 3.29% | 2.01% | 1.04% |
| Green Bay Packers | 17.49% | 16.54% | 18.83% | 16.72% | 9.60% | 8.49% | 5.45% | 3.81% | 1.94% | 1.13% |
| New York Giants | 8.45% | 12.05% | 13.47% | 13.82% | 13.59% | 11.06% | 10.64% | 7.77% | 5.70% | 3.45% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 5.57% | 9.65% | 11.87% | 13.74% | 13.91% | 12.08% | 11.22% | 9.60% | 7.23% | 5.13% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.36% | 5.56% | 7.36% | 9.60% | 12.69% | 11.74% | 13.49% | 13.16% | 12.97% | 11.07% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 1.92% | 2.99% | 5.72% | 7.19% | 10.64% | 13.56% | 14.09% | 15.41% | 14.06% | 14.42% |
| Cleveland Rams | 1.57% | 2.99% | 5.72% | 7.11% | 11.04% | 13.88% | 13.42% | 15.08% | 14.26% | 14.93% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.77% | 2.12% | 3.51% | 5.42% | 7.41% | 9.02% | 13.20% | 15.00% | 21.65% | 21.90% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.56% | 1.29% | 2.78% | 4.24% | 6.95% | 9.61% | 12.16% | 15.90% | 19.71% | 26.80% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 47.74% | 52.26% |
| New York Giants | 22.25% | 77.75% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 17.16% | 82.84% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.43% | 90.57% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3.42% | 96.58% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 62.50% | 37.50% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.47% | 71.53% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 3.81% | 96.19% |
| Cleveland Rams | 3.72% | 96.28% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.50% | 98.50% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 62.50% | 44.45% |
| Washington Redskins | 47.74% | 20.47% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.47% | 16.65% |
| New York Giants | 22.25% | 7.32% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 17.16% | 4.34% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.43% | 2.66% |
| Cleveland Rams | 3.72% | 1.65% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 3.81% | 1.35% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3.42% | 0.66% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.50% | 0.45% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Brooklyn Dodgers | Chicago Bears | Chicago Cardinals | Cleveland Rams | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1.80% | 0.45% | 0.35% | 0.16% | 1.58% | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 7.94% | 10.30% | 1.77% | 4.73% | 19.71% | |||||
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.41% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.46% | |||||
| Cleveland Rams | 0.29% | 0.68% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.44% | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.17% | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 4.06% | 3.58% | 0.84% | 1.68% | 6.49% | |||||
| New York Giants | 3.53% | 0.67% | 0.60% | 0.23% | 2.29% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.27% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.20% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.42% | 0.25% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.77% | |||||
| Washington Redskins | 11.03% | 0.98% | 0.95% | 0.53% | 6.98% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 64.71% |
| Washington Redskins | 35.29% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 64.71% | |
| Washington Redskins | 35.29% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1942-09-27 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-14 | 1512.17 | 1449.04 | 57.66% | 39.77% | +15.83 | 1-0 |
| 1942-10-04 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-7 | 1528.00 | 1458.84 | 58.49% | 38.94% | +15.50 | 2-0 |
| 1942-10-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-7 | 1543.50 | 1424.00 | 65.13% | 32.31% | -14.83 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-18 | Washington Redskins | L 10-21 | 1528.67 | 1536.41 | 47.60% | 49.83% | -13.65 | 2-2 |
| 1942-10-25 | New York Giants | W 17-7 | 1515.02 | 1527.35 | 46.94% | 50.49% | +13.79 | 3-2 |
| 1942-11-01 | Cleveland Rams | L 0-17 | 1528.81 | 1452.83 | 59.42% | 38.01% | -21.10 | 3-3 |
| 1942-11-08 | Chicago Bears | L 0-35 | 1507.71 | 1657.05 | 28.67% | 68.77% | -14.81 | 3-4 |
| 1942-11-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-14 | 1492.90 | 1375.23 | 64.89% | 32.54% | -14.78 | 3-5 |
| 1942-11-22 | @ Washington Redskins | L 3-23 | 1478.12 | 1589.98 | 33.28% | 64.16% | -12.96 | 3-6 |
| 1942-11-29 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-13 | 1465.16 | 1490.18 | 45.13% | 52.30% | -14.09 | 3-7 |
| 1942-12-06 | @ New York Giants | L 0-10 | 1451.07 | 1514.08 | 39.79% | 57.64% | -10.93 | 3-8 |
| 1942-09-27 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 44-28 | 1587.41 | 1547.87 | 54.36% | 43.07% | +14.93 | 1-0 |
| 1942-10-04 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 21-7 | 1602.34 | 1482.15 | 65.21% | 32.22% | +10.51 | 2-0 |
| 1942-10-11 | Chicago Cardinals | W 41-14 | 1612.85 | 1488.39 | 65.75% | 31.69% | +14.36 | 3-0 |
| 1942-10-18 | New York Giants | W 26-7 | 1627.21 | 1541.25 | 60.76% | 36.67% | +13.90 | 4-0 |
| 1942-10-25 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 45-14 | 1641.11 | 1399.32 | 78.35% | 19.10% | +9.33 | 5-0 |
| 1942-11-01 | Detroit Lions | W 16-0 | 1650.44 | 1405.37 | 78.64% | 18.81% | +6.61 | 6-0 |
| 1942-11-08 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 35-0 | 1657.05 | 1507.71 | 68.77% | 28.67% | +14.81 | 7-0 |
| 1942-11-15 | Green Bay Packers | W 38-7 | 1671.86 | 1609.43 | 57.56% | 39.87% | +19.28 | 8-0 |
| 1942-11-22 | @ Detroit Lions | W 42-0 | 1691.14 | 1365.68 | 84.73% | 12.73% | +7.26 | 9-0 |
| 1942-11-29 | Cleveland Rams | W 47-0 | 1698.40 | 1476.63 | 76.50% | 20.94% | +12.59 | 10-0 |
| 1942-12-06 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 21-7 | 1710.99 | 1414.55 | 82.75% | 14.70% | +4.84 | 11-0 |
| 1942-09-13 | Cleveland Rams | W 7-0 | 1469.34 | 1463.21 | 49.60% | 47.83% | +10.94 | 1-0 |
| 1942-09-20 | Detroit Lions | W 13-0 | 1480.28 | 1490.63 | 47.23% | 50.20% | +15.63 | 2-0 |
| 1942-10-04 | Green Bay Packers | L 13-17 | 1495.91 | 1532.94 | 43.42% | 54.01% | -7.52 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-11 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-41 | 1488.39 | 1612.85 | 31.69% | 65.75% | -14.36 | 2-2 |
| 1942-10-18 | @ Detroit Lions | W 7-0 | 1474.03 | 1426.28 | 55.52% | 41.91% | +9.62 | 3-2 |
| 1942-10-25 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 3-7 | 1483.65 | 1443.44 | 54.46% | 42.97% | -9.39 | 3-3 |
| 1942-11-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 24-55 | 1474.26 | 1581.23 | 33.90% | 63.53% | -16.45 | 3-4 |
| 1942-11-08 | @ Washington Redskins | L 0-28 | 1457.81 | 1565.51 | 33.81% | 63.62% | -15.58 | 3-5 |
| 1942-11-22 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 3-19 | 1442.23 | 1474.92 | 44.04% | 53.39% | -15.26 | 3-6 |
| 1942-11-29 | @ New York Giants | L 7-21 | 1426.97 | 1501.66 | 38.19% | 59.24% | -12.42 | 3-7 |
| 1942-12-06 | Chicago Bears | L 7-21 | 1414.55 | 1710.99 | 14.70% | 82.75% | -4.84 | 3-8 |
| 1942-09-13 | @ Chicago Cardinals | L 0-7 | 1463.21 | 1469.34 | 47.83% | 49.60% | -10.94 | 0-1 |
| 1942-09-20 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-14 | 1452.27 | 1462.75 | 47.21% | 50.22% | +13.72 | 1-1 |
| 1942-09-27 | @ Detroit Lions | W 14-0 | 1465.99 | 1475.00 | 47.42% | 50.01% | +16.16 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-04 | Chicago Bears | L 7-21 | 1482.15 | 1602.34 | 32.22% | 65.21% | -10.51 | 2-2 |
| 1942-10-11 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-33 | 1471.64 | 1520.63 | 41.73% | 55.69% | -15.78 | 2-3 |
| 1942-10-18 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 28-45 | 1455.86 | 1557.52 | 34.59% | 62.84% | -12.42 | 2-4 |
| 1942-10-25 | Chicago Cardinals | W 7-3 | 1443.44 | 1483.65 | 42.97% | 54.46% | +9.39 | 3-4 |
| 1942-11-01 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 17-0 | 1452.83 | 1528.81 | 38.01% | 59.42% | +21.09 | 4-4 |
| 1942-11-08 | Green Bay Packers | L 12-30 | 1473.92 | 1597.67 | 31.77% | 65.66% | -11.75 | 4-5 |
| 1942-11-15 | Detroit Lions | W 27-7 | 1462.17 | 1380.15 | 60.24% | 37.19% | +14.46 | 5-5 |
| 1942-11-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-47 | 1476.63 | 1698.40 | 20.94% | 76.50% | -12.59 | 5-6 |
| 1942-09-20 | @ Chicago Cardinals | L 0-13 | 1490.63 | 1480.28 | 50.20% | 47.23% | -15.63 | 0-1 |
| 1942-09-27 | Cleveland Rams | L 0-14 | 1475.00 | 1465.99 | 50.01% | 47.42% | -16.16 | 0-2 |
| 1942-10-04 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-28 | 1458.84 | 1528.00 | 38.94% | 58.49% | -15.50 | 0-3 |
| 1942-10-11 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-38 | 1443.34 | 1540.46 | 35.19% | 62.24% | -17.06 | 0-4 |
| 1942-10-18 | Chicago Cardinals | L 0-7 | 1426.28 | 1474.03 | 41.91% | 55.52% | -9.61 | 0-5 |
| 1942-10-25 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1416.67 | 1569.93 | 28.21% | 69.23% | -11.30 | 0-6 |
| 1942-11-01 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-16 | 1405.37 | 1650.44 | 18.81% | 78.64% | -6.60 | 0-7 |
| 1942-11-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-35 | 1398.77 | 1456.30 | 40.54% | 56.88% | -18.62 | 0-8 |
| 1942-11-15 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-27 | 1380.15 | 1462.17 | 37.19% | 60.24% | -14.47 | 0-9 |
| 1942-11-22 | Chicago Bears | L 0-42 | 1365.68 | 1691.14 | 12.73% | 84.73% | -7.26 | 0-10 |
| 1942-11-29 | Washington Redskins | L 3-15 | 1358.42 | 1602.95 | 18.85% | 78.59% | -5.74 | 0-11 |
| 1942-09-27 | Chicago Bears | L 28-44 | 1547.87 | 1587.41 | 43.07% | 54.36% | -14.93 | 0-1 |
| 1942-10-04 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 17-13 | 1532.94 | 1495.91 | 54.01% | 43.42% | +7.52 | 1-1 |
| 1942-10-11 | Detroit Lions | W 38-7 | 1540.46 | 1443.34 | 62.24% | 35.19% | +17.06 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-18 | Cleveland Rams | W 45-28 | 1557.52 | 1455.86 | 62.84% | 34.59% | +12.41 | 3-1 |
| 1942-10-25 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-7 | 1569.93 | 1416.67 | 69.23% | 28.21% | +11.30 | 4-1 |
| 1942-11-01 | Chicago Cardinals | W 55-24 | 1581.23 | 1474.26 | 63.53% | 33.90% | +16.44 | 5-1 |
| 1942-11-08 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 30-12 | 1597.67 | 1473.92 | 65.66% | 31.77% | +11.76 | 6-1 |
| 1942-11-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-38 | 1609.43 | 1671.86 | 39.87% | 57.56% | -19.28 | 6-2 |
| 1942-11-22 | @ New York Giants | T 21-21 | 1590.15 | 1501.14 | 61.17% | 36.26% | -0.52 | 6-2 |
| 1942-11-29 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 7-0 | 1589.63 | 1390.00 | 74.31% | 23.13% | +5.36 | 7-2 |
| 1942-12-06 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-21 | 1594.99 | 1504.27 | 61.40% | 36.03% | +5.43 | 8-2 |
| 1942-09-27 | @ Washington Redskins | W 14-7 | 1527.19 | 1525.22 | 49.00% | 48.43% | +11.07 | 1-0 |
| 1942-10-04 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-13 | 1538.26 | 1414.21 | 65.70% | 31.74% | -9.79 | 1-1 |
| 1942-10-11 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-17 | 1528.47 | 1426.72 | 62.85% | 34.58% | +12.78 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-18 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-26 | 1541.25 | 1627.21 | 36.67% | 60.76% | -13.90 | 2-2 |
| 1942-10-25 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-17 | 1527.35 | 1515.02 | 50.49% | 46.94% | -13.79 | 2-3 |
| 1942-11-01 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 9-17 | 1513.56 | 1441.97 | 58.82% | 38.61% | -14.33 | 2-4 |
| 1942-11-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 14-0 | 1499.23 | 1386.03 | 64.33% | 33.10% | +10.80 | 3-4 |
| 1942-11-15 | Washington Redskins | L 7-14 | 1510.03 | 1581.09 | 38.68% | 58.75% | -8.89 | 3-5 |
| 1942-11-22 | Green Bay Packers | T 21-21 | 1501.14 | 1590.15 | 36.26% | 61.17% | +0.52 | 3-5 |
| 1942-11-29 | Chicago Cardinals | W 21-7 | 1501.66 | 1426.97 | 59.24% | 38.19% | +12.42 | 4-5 |
| 1942-12-06 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 10-0 | 1514.08 | 1451.07 | 57.64% | 39.79% | +10.93 | 5-5 |
| 1942-09-13 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-14 | 1449.86 | 1438.98 | 50.28% | 47.15% | +12.89 | 1-0 |
| 1942-09-20 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 14-24 | 1462.75 | 1452.27 | 50.22% | 47.21% | -13.71 | 1-1 |
| 1942-09-27 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 14-35 | 1449.04 | 1512.17 | 39.77% | 57.66% | -15.83 | 1-2 |
| 1942-10-04 | Washington Redskins | L 10-14 | 1433.21 | 1514.14 | 37.34% | 60.09% | -6.49 | 1-3 |
| 1942-10-11 | @ New York Giants | L 17-35 | 1426.72 | 1528.47 | 34.58% | 62.85% | -12.78 | 1-4 |
| 1942-10-18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-14 | 1413.94 | 1438.83 | 45.15% | 52.28% | -14.62 | 1-5 |
| 1942-10-25 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-45 | 1399.32 | 1641.11 | 19.10% | 78.35% | -9.34 | 1-6 |
| 1942-11-01 | @ Washington Redskins | L 27-30 | 1389.98 | 1561.55 | 26.12% | 71.31% | -3.95 | 1-7 |
| 1942-11-08 | New York Giants | L 0-14 | 1386.03 | 1499.23 | 33.10% | 64.33% | -10.80 | 1-8 |
| 1942-11-15 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 14-7 | 1375.23 | 1492.90 | 32.54% | 64.89% | +14.77 | 2-8 |
| 1942-11-29 | Green Bay Packers | L 0-7 | 1390.00 | 1589.63 | 23.13% | 74.31% | -5.36 | 2-9 |
| 1942-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-24 | 1438.98 | 1449.86 | 47.15% | 50.28% | -12.89 | 0-1 |
| 1942-09-20 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-28 | 1426.09 | 1513.34 | 36.49% | 60.94% | -11.88 | 0-2 |
| 1942-10-04 | New York Giants | W 13-10 | 1414.21 | 1538.26 | 31.74% | 65.70% | +9.79 | 1-2 |
| 1942-10-11 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 7-0 | 1424.00 | 1543.50 | 32.31% | 65.13% | +14.83 | 2-2 |
| 1942-10-18 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 14-0 | 1438.83 | 1413.94 | 52.28% | 45.15% | +14.62 | 3-2 |
| 1942-10-25 | Washington Redskins | L 0-14 | 1453.45 | 1550.07 | 35.25% | 62.18% | -11.48 | 3-3 |
| 1942-11-01 | @ New York Giants | W 17-9 | 1441.97 | 1513.56 | 38.61% | 58.82% | +14.33 | 4-3 |
| 1942-11-08 | @ Detroit Lions | W 35-7 | 1456.30 | 1398.77 | 56.88% | 40.54% | +18.62 | 5-3 |
| 1942-11-22 | Chicago Cardinals | W 19-3 | 1474.92 | 1442.23 | 53.39% | 44.04% | +15.26 | 6-3 |
| 1942-11-29 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 13-0 | 1490.18 | 1465.16 | 52.30% | 45.13% | +14.09 | 7-3 |
| 1942-12-06 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-24 | 1504.27 | 1594.99 | 36.03% | 61.40% | -5.43 | 7-4 |
| 1942-09-20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 28-14 | 1513.34 | 1426.09 | 60.94% | 36.49% | +11.88 | 1-0 |
| 1942-09-27 | New York Giants | L 7-14 | 1525.22 | 1527.19 | 48.43% | 49.00% | -11.08 | 1-1 |
| 1942-10-04 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 14-10 | 1514.14 | 1433.21 | 60.09% | 37.34% | +6.49 | 2-1 |
| 1942-10-11 | Cleveland Rams | W 33-14 | 1520.63 | 1471.64 | 55.69% | 41.73% | +15.78 | 3-1 |
| 1942-10-18 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 21-10 | 1536.41 | 1528.67 | 49.83% | 47.60% | +13.66 | 4-1 |
| 1942-10-25 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 14-0 | 1550.07 | 1453.45 | 62.18% | 35.25% | +11.48 | 5-1 |
| 1942-11-01 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 30-27 | 1561.55 | 1389.98 | 71.31% | 26.12% | +3.96 | 6-1 |
| 1942-11-08 | Chicago Cardinals | W 28-0 | 1565.51 | 1457.81 | 63.62% | 33.81% | +15.58 | 7-1 |
| 1942-11-15 | @ New York Giants | W 14-7 | 1581.09 | 1510.03 | 58.75% | 38.68% | +8.89 | 8-1 |
| 1942-11-22 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 23-3 | 1589.98 | 1478.12 | 64.16% | 33.28% | +12.97 | 9-1 |
| 1942-11-29 | @ Detroit Lions | W 15-3 | 1602.95 | 1358.42 | 78.59% | 18.85% | +5.73 | 10-1 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1942-12-13 | @ Washington Redskins | L 6-14 | 1715.83 | 1608.68 | 64.95% | 35.05% | -15.46 | 0-1 |
| 1942-12-13 | Chicago Bears | W 14-6 | 1608.68 | 1715.83 | 35.05% | 64.95% | +15.47 | 1-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1942-10-04 | 31.74% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1414.21 | 13 | New York Giants | 1538.26 | 10 |
| 2 | 1942-10-11 | 32.31% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1424.00 | 7 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1543.50 | 0 |
| 3 | 1942-11-15 | 32.54% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1375.23 | 14 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1492.90 | 7 |
| 4 | 1942-12-13 * | 35.05% | @ Washington Redskins | 1608.68 | 14 | Chicago Bears | 1715.83 | 6 |
| 5 | 1942-11-01 | 38.01% | Cleveland Rams | 1452.83 | 17 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1528.81 | 0 |
| 6 | 1942-11-01 | 38.61% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1441.97 | 17 | @ New York Giants | 1513.56 | 9 |
| 7 | 1942-10-25 | 42.97% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1443.44 | 7 | Chicago Cardinals | 1483.65 | 3 |
| 8 | 1942-10-25 | 46.94% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1515.02 | 17 | New York Giants | 1527.35 | 7 |
| 9 | 1942-09-20 | 47.21% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1452.27 | 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1462.75 | 14 |
| 10 | 1942-09-20 | 47.23% | @ Chicago Cardinals | 1480.28 | 13 | Detroit Lions | 1490.63 | 0 |
| 11 | 1942-09-27 | 47.42% | Cleveland Rams | 1465.99 | 14 | @ Detroit Lions | 1475.00 | 0 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1942-11-01 | 21.10 | Cleveland Rams | 17 | 1452.83 | 38.01% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1528.81 | 59.42% |
| 2 | 1942-11-15 | 19.28 | @ Chicago Bears | 38 | 1671.86 | 57.56% | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1609.43 | 39.87% |
| 3 | 1942-11-08 | 18.62 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 35 | 1456.30 | 56.88% | @ Detroit Lions | 7 | 1398.77 | 40.54% |
| 4 | 1942-10-11 | 17.06 | @ Green Bay Packers | 38 | 1540.46 | 62.24% | Detroit Lions | 7 | 1443.34 | 35.19% |
| 5 | 1942-11-01 | 16.45 | @ Green Bay Packers | 55 | 1581.23 | 63.53% | Chicago Cardinals | 24 | 1474.26 | 33.90% |
| 6 | 1942-09-27 | 16.16 | Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1465.99 | 47.42% | @ Detroit Lions | 0 | 1475.00 | 50.01% |
| 7 | 1942-09-27 | 15.83 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 35 | 1512.17 | 57.66% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1449.04 | 39.77% |
| 8 | 1942-10-11 | 15.78 | @ Washington Redskins | 33 | 1520.63 | 55.69% | Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1471.64 | 41.73% |
| 9 | 1942-09-20 | 15.63 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 13 | 1480.28 | 47.23% | Detroit Lions | 0 | 1490.63 | 50.20% |
| 10 | 1942-11-08 | 15.58 | @ Washington Redskins | 28 | 1565.51 | 63.62% | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 1457.81 | 33.81% |
| 11 | 1942-10-04 | 15.50 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 28 | 1528.00 | 58.49% | @ Detroit Lions | 7 | 1458.84 | 38.94% |
| 12 | 1942-12-13 * | 15.47 | @ Washington Redskins | 14 | 1608.68 | 35.05% | Chicago Bears | 6 | 1715.83 | 64.95% |
| 13 | 1942-11-22 | 15.26 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | 1474.92 | 53.39% | Chicago Cardinals | 3 | 1442.23 | 44.04% |
| 14 | 1942-09-27 | 14.93 | Chicago Bears | 44 | 1587.41 | 54.36% | @ Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1547.87 | 43.07% |
| 15 | 1942-10-11 | 14.83 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1424.00 | 32.31% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1543.50 | 65.13% |
| 16 | 1942-11-08 | 14.81 | Chicago Bears | 35 | 1657.05 | 68.77% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1507.71 | 28.67% |
| 17 | 1942-11-15 | 14.78 | Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1375.23 | 32.54% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 7 | 1492.90 | 64.89% |
| 18 | 1942-10-18 | 14.62 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 | 1438.83 | 52.28% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 1413.94 | 45.15% |
| 19 | 1942-11-15 | 14.47 | @ Cleveland Rams | 27 | 1462.17 | 60.24% | Detroit Lions | 7 | 1380.15 | 37.19% |
| 20 | 1942-10-11 | 14.36 | @ Chicago Bears | 41 | 1612.85 | 65.75% | Chicago Cardinals | 14 | 1488.39 | 31.69% |
| 21 | 1942-11-01 | 14.33 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 1441.97 | 38.61% | @ New York Giants | 9 | 1513.56 | 58.82% |
| 22 | 1942-11-29 | 14.09 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 13 | 1490.18 | 52.30% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 0 | 1465.16 | 45.13% |
| 23 | 1942-10-18 | 13.90 | @ Chicago Bears | 26 | 1627.21 | 60.76% | New York Giants | 7 | 1541.25 | 36.67% |
| 24 | 1942-10-25 | 13.79 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 17 | 1515.02 | 46.94% | New York Giants | 7 | 1527.35 | 50.49% |
| 25 | 1942-09-20 | 13.72 | @ Cleveland Rams | 24 | 1452.27 | 47.21% | Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1462.75 | 50.22% |