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1977-78 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Juventus

44 points · 18th Title

Last Title: 1976-77

Relegated

Pescara

17 pts

Genoa · 25 pts

Foggia · 25 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Lanerossi Vicenza

10.10 points above expected

39 points · 28.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pescara

8.82 points below expected

17 points · 25.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Juventus Champion 30 15 14 1 44 46 17 +29 40.12 +3.88
2 Lanerossi Vicenza 30 14 11 5 39 50 34 +16 28.90 +10.10
3 Torino 30 14 11 5 39 36 23 +13 39.43 -0.43
4 AC Milan 30 12 13 5 37 38 25 +13 32.47 +4.53
5 Inter Milan 30 13 10 7 36 35 24 +11 32.92 +3.08
6 Napoli 30 8 14 8 30 35 31 +4 29.32 +0.68
7 Perugia 30 10 10 10 30 36 35 +1 30.25 -0.25
8 Roma 30 8 12 10 28 31 34 -3 27.17 +0.83
9 Atalanta 30 6 15 9 27 28 32 -4 27.54 -0.54
10 Hellas Verona 30 6 14 10 26 25 30 -5 27.76 -1.76
11 Lazio Roma 30 8 10 12 26 31 38 -7 29.96 -3.96
12 Bologna 30 7 12 11 26 21 32 -11 27.02 -1.02
13 Fiorentina 30 7 11 12 25 28 37 -9 29.19 -4.19
14 Genoa Relegated 30 5 15 10 25 23 33 -10 26.56 -1.56
15 Foggia Relegated 30 8 9 13 25 28 43 -15 25.57 -0.57
16 Pescara Relegated 30 4 9 17 17 21 44 -23 25.82 -8.82

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Juventus 1881 44 40.12 +3.88 88.2% 27 34 38 40 43 46 55
Torino 1838 39 39.43 -0.43 50.2% 25 33 37 39 42 46 53
Inter Milan 1757 36 32.92 +3.08 81.8% 17 27 30 33 36 39 48
Lanerossi Vicenza 1743 39 28.90 +10.10 99.7% 13 23 26 29 31 35 43
AC Milan 1729 37 32.47 +4.53 90.2% 17 26 30 32 35 39 47
Perugia 1682 30 30.25 -0.25 52.5% 16 24 28 30 33 37 45
Fiorentina 1677 25 29.19 -4.19 17.2% 17 23 27 29 32 36 44
Napoli 1666 30 29.32 +0.68 61.8% 12 23 27 29 32 36 45
Lazio Roma 1663 26 29.96 -3.96 18.6% 17 24 27 30 33 36 46
Roma 1650 28 27.17 +0.83 63.4% 13 21 25 27 30 33 41
Atalanta 1644 27 27.54 -0.54 50.0% 13 21 25 27 30 34 40
Hellas Verona 1634 26 27.76 -1.76 37.4% 13 21 25 28 30 34 42
Bologna 1630 26 27.02 -1.02 44.4% 13 21 24 27 30 33 44
Foggia 1627 25 25.57 -0.57 49.2% 11 19 23 26 28 32 42
Genoa 1610 25 26.56 -1.56 39.5% 12 20 24 27 29 33 42
Pescara 1571 17 25.82 -8.82 1.2% 13 20 23 26 28 32 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ATA BOL FIO FOG GEN HV IM JUV LV LR NAP PER PES ROM TOR
AC Milan —
0-1-1
3.20
1-1-0
3.28
1-1-0
2.64
2-0-0
3.25
0-2-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
2.55
0-2-0
1.82
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.98
0-1-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.23
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.07
Atalanta
1-1-0
2.01
 —
0-2-0
2.45
0-2-0
2.50
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
2.67
2-0-0
2.59
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
1.48
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.32
0-2-0
2.52
0-2-0
2.29
1-1-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.67
0-1-1
1.50
Bologna
0-1-1
1.92
0-2-0
2.74
 —
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.30
1-0-1
2.15
2-0-0
2.19
0-2-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.76
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-2
1.55
Fiorentina
0-1-1
2.56
0-2-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-2-0
2.99
0-1-1
2.93
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
2.59
0-0-2
2.51
1-1-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
1.51
Foggia
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.32
0-2-0
2.20
 —
0-2-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.96
0-1-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.28
0-1-1
2.21
0-0-2
2.19
2-0-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
1.42
Genoa
0-2-0
2.12
0-1-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.59
1-1-0
2.27
0-2-0
2.70
 —
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
1.85
0-1-1
1.31
0-0-2
2.29
1-1-0
2.23
0-2-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.48
Hellas Verona
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
2.60
1-1-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.59
 —
0-2-0
2.11
0-1-1
1.57
0-1-1
2.58
0-2-0
2.32
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.72
0-1-1
1.50
Inter Milan
0-1-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.08
0-0-2
3.05
2-0-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.35
0-2-0
3.09
 —
0-1-1
1.91
2-0-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
3.49
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.04
Juventus
0-2-0
3.42
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
4.01
1-1-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.93
1-1-0
3.98
1-1-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.30
 —
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.01
1-1-0
3.96
0-2-0
2.67
Lanerossi Vicenza
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
2.61
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
2.21
0-1-1
1.68
 —
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.65
1-1-0
2.85
0-2-0
1.46
Lazio Roma
2-0-0
2.23
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.99
2-0-0
2.65
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.96
0-2-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
1.65
0-0-2
2.83
 —
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.97
0-2-0
2.86
0-1-1
1.77
Napoli
1-1-0
2.30
0-2-0
2.68
0-2-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.97
0-2-0
2.80
2-0-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
1.62
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.65
 —
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.74
0-0-2
1.69
Perugia
0-1-1
2.33
0-2-0
2.91
2-0-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
1.77
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.67
 —
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
1.66
Pescara
0-0-2
2.00
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.42
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
2.68
0-1-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.45
1-1-0
1.73
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
1.96
 —
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.42
Roma
0-0-2
2.30
2-0-0
2.51
0-2-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-1
1.34
0-1-1
2.32
0-2-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.65
 —
1-1-0
1.45
Torino
1-1-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
3.75
1-0-1
3.87
2-0-0
3.78
1-1-0
3.76
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
2.52
0-2-0
3.79
1-1-0
3.49
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
3.58
1-0-1
3.86
0-1-1
3.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +7.5
Allowed 0.69 -8.2
Differential 0.96 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.75%6.46%1.25%0.62%0.42%34.17%
18.75%17.50%7.08%2.92%0.21%0.42%36.88%
26.46%7.08%5.42%1.25%0.42%—20.62%
31.25%2.92%1.25%—0.42%—5.83%
40.62%0.21%0.42%0.42%——1.67%
5+0.42%0.42%————0.83%
Total34.17%36.88%20.62%5.83%1.67%0.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.07 +0.00
SD 1.04 1.04 1.41
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%6.67%———26.67%
110.00%26.67%————36.67%
210.00%10.00%6.67%———26.67%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total30.00%56.67%13.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 0.83 +0.43
SD 1.14 0.65 1.28
CV 0.90 0.78 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%3.33%———33.33%
110.00%23.33%3.33%3.33%——40.00%
26.67%3.33%10.00%3.33%3.33%—26.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%40.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.07 -0.13
SD 0.78 1.05 1.01
CV 0.84 0.98 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
026.67%13.33%6.67%6.67%——53.33%
16.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%——26.67%
2—13.33%—3.33%——16.67%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%40.00%13.33%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.70 1.07 -0.37
SD 0.88 1.01 1.16
CV 1.25 0.95 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%3.33%———33.33%
16.67%13.33%13.33%3.33%—6.67%43.33%
26.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%23.33%3.33%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.23 -0.30
SD 0.83 1.33 1.51
CV 0.89 1.08 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%10.00%——6.67%33.33%
110.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%——50.00%
23.33%6.67%————10.00%
3—3.33%————3.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%36.67%20.00%10.00%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.43 -0.50
SD 0.94 1.45 1.96
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%10.00%6.67%—3.33%—43.33%
16.67%16.67%10.00%3.33%——36.67%
23.33%6.67%10.00%———20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%26.67%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.10 -0.33
SD 0.77 1.03 1.15
CV 1.01 0.94 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
026.67%13.33%—3.33%3.33%—46.67%
16.67%10.00%13.33%———30.00%
23.33%3.33%10.00%———16.67%
33.33%3.33%————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%23.33%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.00 -0.17
SD 0.95 1.05 1.34
CV 1.14 1.05 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%————30.00%
110.00%10.00%6.67%3.33%——30.00%
216.67%13.33%6.67%———36.67%
3———————
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+———————
Total43.33%36.67%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.80 +0.37
SD 0.99 0.85 1.13
CV 0.84 1.06 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%——3.33%——26.67%
113.33%16.67%————30.00%
213.33%6.67%6.67%———26.67%
33.33%—3.33%———6.67%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+3.33%3.33%————6.67%
Total60.00%26.67%10.00%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.57 +0.97
SD 1.50 0.82 1.67
CV 0.98 1.44 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%—3.33%———16.67%
110.00%16.67%3.33%3.33%——33.33%
23.33%10.00%6.67%6.67%——26.67%
33.33%10.00%————13.33%
4—3.33%3.33%3.33%——10.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%16.67%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.13 +0.53
SD 1.21 1.01 1.28
CV 0.73 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%—26.67%
110.00%23.33%10.00%6.67%——50.00%
210.00%3.33%3.33%———16.67%
33.33%———3.33%—6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%36.67%16.67%10.00%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.27 -0.23
SD 0.85 1.20 1.52
CV 0.82 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%13.33%3.33%———36.67%
16.67%20.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%—36.67%
23.33%—6.67%———10.00%
33.33%3.33%3.33%———10.00%
4———3.33%——3.33%
5+3.33%—————3.33%
Total36.67%36.67%16.67%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.03 +0.13
SD 1.32 1.07 1.53
CV 1.13 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%16.67%———33.33%
13.33%20.00%3.33%3.33%——30.00%
210.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%——23.33%
3—3.33%6.67%———10.00%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%36.67%30.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.17 +0.03
SD 1.13 0.91 1.50
CV 0.94 0.78 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%23.33%3.33%——43.33%
13.33%16.67%20.00%3.33%——43.33%
2—10.00%3.33%———13.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%33.33%46.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.70 1.47 -0.77
SD 0.70 0.82 1.10
CV 1.00 0.56 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%10.00%———33.33%
110.00%20.00%6.67%———36.67%
26.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%—23.33%
3—3.33%——3.33%—6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%36.67%20.00%3.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.13 -0.10
SD 0.93 1.14 1.16
CV 0.90 1.00 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%3.33%6.67%———30.00%
116.67%13.33%6.67%———36.67%
26.67%6.67%3.33%———16.67%
3—13.33%3.33%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total43.33%36.67%20.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 0.77 +0.43
SD 1.06 0.77 1.14
CV 0.89 1.01 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lanerossi Vicenza 39 28.90 +10.10
2 AC Milan 37 32.47 +4.53
3 Juventus 44 40.12 +3.88
4 Inter Milan 36 32.92 +3.08
5 Roma 28 27.17 +0.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pescara 17 25.82 -8.82
2 Fiorentina 25 29.19 -4.19
3 Lazio Roma 26 29.96 -3.96
4 Hellas Verona 26 27.76 -1.76
5 Genoa 25 26.56 -1.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AC Milan 6 Oct 2 – Nov 27 1 in 1,328
2 Lanerossi Vicenza 4 Oct 30 – Nov 27 1 in 481
3 Inter Milan 3 Jan 8 – Jan 22 1 in 32
4 Lazio Roma 2 Apr 23 – Apr 30 1 in 31
5 Hellas Verona 3 Feb 26 – Mar 12 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fiorentina 4 Sep 25 – Oct 30 1 in 262
2 Atalanta 3 Apr 23 – May 7 1 in 126
3 Genoa 4 Dec 18 – Jan 15 1 in 59
4 Bologna 3 Sep 25 – Oct 23 1 in 42
5 Hellas Verona 3 Apr 16 – Apr 30 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lanerossi Vicenza 12 Oct 23 – Jan 29 1 in 102
2 Juventus 26 Oct 23 – May 7 1 in 72
3 Bologna 8 Mar 19 – May 7 1 in 62
4 Atalanta 6 Jan 29 – Mar 5 1 in 23
5 AC Milan 11 Jan 29 – Apr 9 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atalanta 13 Oct 23 – Feb 5 1 in 76
2 Pescara 13 Oct 2 – Jan 29 1 in 40
3 Bologna 11 Sep 18 – Dec 31 1 in 35
4 Fiorentina 8 Sep 11 – Nov 20 1 in 27
5 Perugia 6 Jan 15 – Feb 19 1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Juventus54.70%29.67%9.35%3.15%1.54%0.73%0.35%0.19%0.16%0.09%0.02%0.05%————
Lanerossi Vicenza0.31%1.47%5.36%7.35%8.41%9.09%9.00%8.83%8.33%7.98%7.03%6.96%6.54%5.60%4.44%3.30%
Torino37.61%40.76%11.85%4.95%2.20%1.24%0.65%0.32%0.18%0.08%0.10%0.02%0.03%0.01%——
AC Milan2.35%8.12%18.48%15.32%13.33%9.98%7.84%5.89%4.83%3.77%3.17%2.26%1.92%1.41%0.81%0.52%
Inter Milan2.59%9.48%20.06%16.98%12.68%8.94%7.41%5.71%4.58%3.54%2.65%1.87%1.54%0.96%0.74%0.27%
Napoli0.38%1.76%5.48%8.19%8.66%9.42%8.93%8.39%8.52%7.56%7.76%6.59%5.79%5.41%4.16%3.00%
Perugia0.62%2.41%7.97%10.22%10.27%10.08%10.16%8.63%7.83%7.04%6.54%5.50%4.42%3.51%2.79%2.01%
Roma0.08%0.40%1.78%3.23%4.62%5.41%6.42%6.95%7.95%8.02%8.86%9.03%9.81%9.62%9.79%8.03%
Atalanta0.05%0.43%2.16%3.82%5.15%5.83%6.57%7.73%7.55%8.61%9.46%9.32%8.65%9.04%8.70%6.93%
Hellas Verona0.14%0.62%2.54%3.87%5.26%6.45%6.77%7.85%8.13%8.90%8.53%8.39%8.53%8.59%8.24%7.19%
Lazio Roma0.53%2.34%5.90%8.42%9.14%10.12%9.55%9.24%8.02%7.75%6.75%6.41%5.45%4.49%3.40%2.49%
Bologna0.09%0.34%1.55%2.85%3.92%4.63%5.70%6.24%7.70%8.05%8.39%9.32%10.05%9.83%10.85%10.49%
Fiorentina0.44%1.56%4.81%6.38%7.66%8.05%8.79%8.30%8.62%8.61%7.55%7.27%6.89%5.92%5.44%3.71%
Genoa0.04%0.32%1.42%2.38%3.22%4.22%4.87%6.25%6.34%7.39%8.04%9.65%10.10%10.98%12.00%12.78%
Foggia0.03%0.12%0.76%1.42%1.88%2.82%3.64%4.83%5.62%6.13%7.46%8.68%10.09%12.36%14.46%19.70%
Pescara0.04%0.20%0.53%1.47%2.06%2.99%3.35%4.65%5.64%6.48%7.69%8.68%10.19%12.27%14.18%19.58%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.92%
Clear Edge
41.67%39.58%18.75%
Elo Value
Home Edge
235 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
081.06600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
55%
Juventus, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.06 * Some Luck: 3.06 to 4.6 * Lucky: 4.6 to 6.13 * Wild Swing: 6.13 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.35 * Close: 2.35 to 3.52 * Off: 3.52 to 4.7 * Way Off: 4.7 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.72 * A Surprise: 1.72 to 2.75 * Several Surprises: 2.75 to 3.78 * Many Surprises: 3.78 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.08 points
Some Luck
03.8310
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Pinpoint
02.946
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.72%
Lanerossi Vicenza
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.20%
Pescara
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 3
As Expected
01.73

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.29
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
75%
Very Frequent
0%71%100%
Blowouts
Expected 8%
6%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.14
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.25
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.37
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.79
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1100.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Juventus 100% —
Torino 99.99% 0.01%
Inter Milan 98.03% 1.97%
AC Milan 97.26% 2.74%
Perugia 91.69% 8.31%
Lazio Roma 89.62% 10.38%
Napoli 87.43% 12.57%
Lanerossi Vicenza 86.66% 13.34%
Fiorentina 84.93% 15.07%
Hellas Verona 75.98% 24.02%
Atalanta 75.33% 24.67%
Roma 72.56% 27.44%
Bologna 68.83% 31.17%
Genoa 64.24% 35.76%
Pescara 53.97% 46.03%
Foggia 53.48% 46.52%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1977-09-11 Perugia D 1-1 1650 1681 40.9% 41.6% 17.5% -1.1 1
1977-09-11 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1681 1650 17.5% 41.6% 40.9% +1.1 1
1977-09-11 AC Milan D 1-1 1718 1681 47.8% 40.1% 12.1% -1.9 1
1977-09-11 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1681 1718 12.1% 40.1% 47.8% +1.9 1
1977-09-11 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1634 1692 37.7% 41.9% 20.4% +6.4 2
1977-09-11 @ Genoa L 1-2 1692 1634 20.4% 41.9% 37.7% -6.4 0
1977-09-11 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1644 1620 46.6% 40.5% 12.9% -2.0 1
1977-09-11 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1620 1644 12.9% 40.5% 46.6% +2.0 1
1977-09-11 Bologna L 0-1 1716 1676 48.1% 40.0% 11.9% -12.1 0
1977-09-11 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1676 1716 11.9% 40.0% 48.1% +12.1 2
1977-09-11 Foggia W 6-0 1832 1645 60.5% 33.4% 6.1% +12.5 2
1977-09-11 @ Juventus L 0-6 1645 1832 6.1% 33.4% 60.5% -12.5 0
1977-09-11 Napoli L 1-3 1679 1641 47.9% 40.1% 12.0% -19.6 0
1977-09-11 @ Pescara W 3-1 1641 1679 12.0% 40.1% 47.9% +19.6 2
1977-09-11 Torino W 2-1 1639 1853 18.8% 39.7% 41.5% +9.9 2
1977-09-11 @ Roma L 1-2 1853 1639 41.5% 39.7% 18.8% -9.9 0
1977-09-18 Genoa D 2-2 1683 1640 48.4% 39.9% 11.7% -1.4 2
1977-09-18 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1640 1683 11.7% 39.9% 48.4% +1.4 3
1977-09-18 Atalanta D 0-0 1688 1649 48.1% 40.0% 11.9% -2.1 3
1977-09-18 @ Bologna D 0-0 1649 1688 11.9% 40.0% 48.1% +2.1 2
1977-09-18 Fiorentina D 1-1 1633 1716 34.6% 42.0% 23.4% -0.5 1
1977-09-18 @ Foggia D 1-1 1716 1633 23.4% 42.0% 34.6% +0.5 2
1977-09-18 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1686 1642 48.5% 39.9% 11.6% -1.9 1
1977-09-18 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1642 1686 11.6% 39.9% 48.5% +2.0 2
1977-09-18 Juventus L 1-2 1661 1845 21.8% 40.6% 37.6% -6.6 2
1977-09-18 @ Napoli W 2-1 1845 1661 37.6% 40.6% 21.8% +6.6 4
1977-09-18 Roma W 3-2 1682 1649 47.5% 40.2% 12.3% +4.3 3
1977-09-18 @ Perugia L 2-3 1649 1682 12.3% 40.2% 47.5% -4.3 2
1977-09-18 Pescara W 2-0 1843 1659 60.2% 33.6% 6.2% +4.6 2
1977-09-18 @ Torino L 0-2 1659 1843 6.2% 33.6% 60.2% -4.6 0
1977-09-18 Inter Milan L 1-2 1622 1704 34.8% 42.0% 23.2% -8.9 1
1977-09-18 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1704 1622 23.2% 42.0% 34.8% +8.9 2
1977-09-25 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1651 1684 40.7% 41.6% 17.7% -1.1 3
1977-09-25 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1684 1651 17.7% 41.6% 40.7% +1.1 2
1977-09-25 Hellas Verona L 1-2 1717 1644 51.1% 38.9% 10.0% -12.0 2
1977-09-25 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1644 1717 10.0% 38.9% 51.1% +12.0 4
1977-09-25 Perugia W 2-0 1642 1687 39.3% 41.8% 18.9% +12.2 5
1977-09-25 @ Genoa L 0-2 1687 1642 18.9% 41.8% 39.3% -12.2 3
1977-09-25 Napoli W 1-0 1712 1654 49.8% 39.4% 10.8% +4.3 4
1977-09-25 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1654 1712 10.8% 39.4% 49.8% -4.4 2
1977-09-25 AC Milan D 1-1 1852 1682 59.1% 34.4% 6.5% -3.0 5
1977-09-25 @ Juventus D 1-1 1682 1852 6.5% 34.4% 59.1% +3.0 3
1977-09-25 Bologna W 2-1 1654 1686 40.8% 41.6% 17.6% +5.9 2
1977-09-25 @ Pescara L 1-2 1686 1654 17.6% 41.6% 40.8% -5.9 3
1977-09-25 Foggia W 1-0 1644 1632 45.5% 40.8% 13.8% +5.2 4
1977-09-25 @ Roma L 0-1 1632 1644 13.8% 40.8% 45.5% -5.2 1
1977-09-25 Torino D 0-0 1613 1848 17.0% 39.0% 44.0% +1.5 2
1977-09-25 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1848 1613 44.0% 39.0% 17.0% -1.5 3
1977-10-02 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-1 1685 1615 50.9% 39.0% 10.2% +6.7 5
1977-10-02 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1615 1685 10.2% 39.0% 50.9% -6.7 2
1977-10-02 Bologna W 1-0 1627 1680 38.3% 41.9% 19.8% +6.7 3
1977-10-02 @ Foggia L 0-1 1680 1627 19.8% 41.9% 38.3% -6.7 3
1977-10-02 Atalanta L 1-2 1656 1650 44.9% 40.9% 14.2% -10.7 4
1977-10-02 @ Hellas Verona W 2-1 1650 1656 14.2% 40.9% 44.9% +10.7 5
1977-10-02 Juventus W 3-0 1685 1849 24.1% 41.1% 34.8% +25.5 4
1977-10-02 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1849 1685 34.8% 41.1% 24.1% -25.5 5
1977-10-02 Genoa D 0-0 1650 1654 43.8% 41.1% 15.0% -1.6 3
1977-10-02 @ Napoli D 0-0 1654 1650 15.0% 41.1% 43.8% +1.6 6
1977-10-02 Fiorentina W 2-1 1674 1705 41.0% 41.6% 17.4% +5.8 5
1977-10-02 @ Perugia L 1-2 1705 1674 17.4% 41.6% 41.0% -5.8 2
1977-10-02 Roma D 1-1 1660 1650 45.3% 40.8% 13.9% -1.6 3
1977-10-02 @ Pescara D 1-1 1650 1660 13.9% 40.8% 45.3% +1.6 5
1977-10-02 Inter Milan W 1-0 1846 1717 55.9% 36.4% 7.7% +3.2 5
1977-10-02 @ Torino L 0-1 1717 1846 7.7% 36.4% 55.9% -3.2 4
1977-10-23 Napoli D 1-1 1661 1648 45.5% 40.8% 13.8% -1.6 6
1977-10-23 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1648 1661 13.8% 40.8% 45.5% +1.6 4
1977-10-23 Perugia L 2-3 1674 1680 43.5% 41.2% 15.2% -10.0 3
1977-10-23 @ Bologna W 3-2 1680 1674 15.2% 41.2% 43.5% +10.0 7
1977-10-23 Torino W 1-0 1634 1849 18.6% 39.7% 41.7% +10.5 5
1977-10-23 @ Foggia L 0-1 1849 1634 41.7% 39.7% 18.6% -10.5 5
1977-10-23 Hellas Verona D 2-2 1656 1645 45.3% 40.8% 13.9% -1.2 7
1977-10-23 @ Genoa D 2-2 1645 1656 13.9% 40.8% 45.3% +1.2 5
1977-10-23 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1714 1711 44.5% 41.0% 14.5% -1.5 5
1977-10-23 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1711 1714 14.5% 41.0% 44.5% +1.5 5
1977-10-23 Fiorentina W 5-1 1823 1699 55.5% 36.6% 7.9% +9.6 7
1977-10-23 @ Juventus L 1-5 1699 1823 7.9% 36.6% 55.5% -9.6 2
1977-10-23 AC Milan L 1-2 1651 1692 39.8% 41.8% 18.4% -9.8 5
1977-10-23 @ Roma W 2-1 1692 1651 18.4% 41.8% 39.8% +9.8 7
1977-10-23 Pescara D 1-1 1608 1659 38.6% 41.9% 19.5% -0.9 3
1977-10-23 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1659 1608 19.5% 41.9% 38.6% +0.9 4
1977-10-30 Foggia W 2-0 1701 1644 49.7% 39.4% 10.8% +8.2 9
1977-10-30 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1644 1701 10.8% 39.4% 49.7% -8.2 5
1977-10-30 Lanerossi Vicenza L 2-4 1659 1607 49.3% 39.6% 11.1% -18.0 6
1977-10-30 @ Atalanta W 4-2 1607 1659 11.1% 39.6% 49.3% +18.0 5
1977-10-30 Inter Milan L 0-2 1689 1712 41.8% 41.5% 16.7% -20.3 2
1977-10-30 @ Fiorentina W 2-0 1712 1689 16.7% 41.5% 41.8% +20.3 7
1977-10-30 Bologna D 1-1 1647 1664 42.4% 41.4% 16.2% -1.3 6
1977-10-30 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1664 1647 16.2% 41.4% 42.4% +1.3 4
1977-10-30 Pescara W 2-1 1712 1659 49.3% 39.6% 11.1% +4.2 7
1977-10-30 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1659 1712 11.1% 39.6% 49.3% -4.2 4
1977-10-30 Roma W 2-0 1650 1642 45.1% 40.9% 14.0% +10.0 6
1977-10-30 @ Napoli L 0-2 1642 1650 14.0% 40.9% 45.1% -10.0 5
1977-10-30 Juventus D 0-0 1690 1833 26.7% 41.5% 31.8% +0.2 8
1977-10-30 @ Perugia D 0-0 1833 1690 31.8% 41.5% 26.7% -0.3 8
1977-10-30 Genoa W 3-1 1839 1654 60.3% 33.6% 6.2% +4.0 7
1977-10-30 @ Torino L 1-3 1654 1839 6.2% 33.6% 60.3% -4.0 7
1977-11-06 Torino L 1-3 1665 1843 22.5% 40.8% 36.7% -11.6 4
1977-11-06 @ Bologna W 3-1 1843 1665 36.7% 40.8% 22.5% +11.6 9
1977-11-06 Foggia D 0-0 1651 1636 45.7% 40.7% 13.6% -1.8 8
1977-11-06 @ Genoa D 0-0 1636 1651 13.6% 40.7% 45.7% +1.8 6
1977-11-06 AC Milan L 1-3 1732 1710 46.5% 40.5% 13.0% -19.2 7
1977-11-06 @ Inter Milan W 3-1 1710 1732 13.0% 40.5% 46.5% +19.2 11
1977-11-06 Atalanta D 1-1 1832 1641 60.8% 33.2% 6.0% -3.1 9
1977-11-06 @ Juventus D 1-1 1641 1832 6.0% 33.2% 60.8% +3.1 7
1977-11-06 Perugia W 3-2 1660 1690 41.0% 41.6% 17.4% +5.5 8
1977-11-06 @ Napoli L 2-3 1690 1660 17.4% 41.6% 41.0% -5.5 8
1977-11-06 Hellas Verona D 2-2 1655 1645 45.2% 40.8% 13.9% -1.2 5
1977-11-06 @ Pescara D 2-2 1645 1655 13.9% 40.8% 45.2% +1.2 7
1977-11-06 Fiorentina D 2-2 1632 1669 40.2% 41.7% 18.1% -0.8 6
1977-11-06 @ Roma D 2-2 1669 1632 18.1% 41.7% 40.2% +0.8 3
1977-11-06 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1625 1716 33.6% 42.0% 24.4% +7.2 7
1977-11-06 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1716 1625 24.4% 42.0% 33.6% -7.2 7
1977-11-20 Bologna W 1-0 1729 1653 51.3% 38.8% 9.9% +4.0 13
1977-11-20 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1653 1729 9.9% 38.8% 51.3% -4.0 4
1977-11-20 Genoa D 1-1 1644 1649 43.8% 41.2% 15.1% -1.4 8
1977-11-20 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1649 1644 15.1% 41.2% 43.8% +1.4 9
1977-11-20 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-3 1670 1632 47.9% 40.1% 12.0% -19.6 3
1977-11-20 @ Fiorentina W 3-1 1632 1670 12.0% 40.1% 47.9% +19.6 9
1977-11-20 Pescara W 2-0 1638 1654 42.5% 41.4% 16.1% +11.0 8
1977-11-20 @ Foggia L 0-2 1654 1638 16.1% 41.4% 42.5% -11.0 5
1977-11-20 Juventus D 0-0 1647 1829 21.9% 40.7% 37.4% +0.8 8
1977-11-20 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1829 1647 37.4% 40.7% 21.9% -0.8 10
1977-11-20 Inter Milan D 1-1 1685 1713 41.2% 41.6% 17.2% -1.2 9
1977-11-20 @ Perugia D 1-1 1713 1685 17.2% 41.6% 41.2% +1.2 8
1977-11-20 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1631 1709 35.2% 42.0% 22.8% -0.6 7
1977-11-20 @ Roma D 0-0 1709 1631 22.8% 42.0% 35.2% +0.6 8
1977-11-20 Napoli W 1-0 1854 1666 60.6% 33.4% 6.0% +2.4 11
1977-11-20 @ Torino L 0-1 1666 1854 6.0% 33.4% 60.6% -2.4 8
1977-11-27 Fiorentina L 0-1 1649 1650 44.1% 41.1% 14.8% -11.2 4
1977-11-27 @ Bologna W 1-0 1650 1649 14.8% 41.1% 44.1% +11.2 5
1977-11-27 Atalanta W 1-0 1714 1643 51.0% 38.9% 10.1% +4.1 10
1977-11-27 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1643 1714 10.1% 38.9% 51.0% -4.1 8
1977-11-27 Genoa W 4-0 1829 1650 59.8% 33.9% 6.3% +8.9 12
1977-11-27 @ Juventus L 0-4 1650 1829 6.3% 33.9% 59.8% -8.9 9
1977-11-27 Foggia D 1-1 1710 1649 50.1% 39.3% 10.6% -2.1 9
1977-11-27 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1649 1710 10.6% 39.3% 50.1% +2.1 9
1977-11-27 Hellas Verona W 3-0 1663 1647 45.8% 40.7% 13.5% +14.2 10
1977-11-27 @ Napoli L 0-3 1647 1663 13.5% 40.7% 45.8% -14.2 8
1977-11-27 Torino W 2-0 1684 1857 23.0% 40.9% 36.1% +18.0 11
1977-11-27 @ Perugia L 0-2 1857 1684 36.1% 40.9% 23.0% -18.0 11
1977-11-27 AC Milan L 0-2 1643 1733 33.8% 42.0% 24.2% -17.4 5
1977-11-27 @ Pescara W 2-0 1733 1643 24.2% 42.0% 33.8% +17.4 15
1977-11-27 Roma W 4-3 1652 1630 46.4% 40.5% 13.1% +4.4 11
1977-11-27 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 3-4 1630 1652 13.1% 40.5% 46.4% -4.4 7
1977-12-11 Perugia D 2-2 1750 1702 48.9% 39.7% 11.3% -1.5 16
1977-12-11 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1702 1750 11.3% 39.7% 48.9% +1.5 12
1977-12-11 Fiorentina D 0-0 1639 1661 41.8% 41.5% 16.7% -1.4 9
1977-12-11 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1661 1639 16.7% 41.5% 41.8% +1.4 6
1977-12-11 Roma D 0-0 1638 1626 45.5% 40.8% 13.7% -1.8 5
1977-12-11 @ Bologna D 0-0 1626 1638 13.7% 40.8% 45.5% +1.8 8
1977-12-11 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1651 1656 43.7% 41.2% 15.1% -1.4 10
1977-12-11 @ Foggia D 1-1 1656 1651 15.1% 41.2% 43.7% +1.4 12
1977-12-11 Pescara W 1-0 1641 1626 45.8% 40.7% 13.5% +5.2 11
1977-12-11 @ Genoa L 0-1 1626 1641 13.5% 40.7% 45.8% -5.2 5
1977-12-11 Inter Milan D 0-0 1633 1719 34.3% 42.0% 23.7% -0.5 9
1977-12-11 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1719 1633 23.7% 42.0% 34.3% +0.5 11
1977-12-11 Napoli D 1-1 1708 1677 47.2% 40.3% 12.5% -1.8 10
1977-12-11 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1677 1708 12.5% 40.3% 47.2% +1.8 11
1977-12-11 Juventus D 0-0 1839 1837 44.4% 41.0% 14.6% -1.7 12
1977-12-11 @ Torino D 0-0 1837 1839 14.6% 41.0% 44.4% +1.7 13
1977-12-18 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1663 1706 39.5% 41.8% 18.7% -10.3 6
1977-12-18 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1706 1663 18.7% 41.8% 39.5% +10.3 12
1977-12-18 Juventus L 0-1 1719 1839 29.7% 41.8% 28.5% -8.5 11
1977-12-18 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1839 1719 28.5% 41.8% 29.7% +8.5 15
1977-12-18 Foggia W 5-0 1679 1650 47.2% 40.3% 12.5% +21.6 13
1977-12-18 @ Napoli L 0-5 1650 1679 12.5% 40.3% 47.2% -21.6 10
1977-12-18 Hellas Verona L 0-1 1703 1633 50.9% 38.9% 10.1% -12.6 12
1977-12-18 @ Perugia W 1-0 1633 1703 10.1% 38.9% 50.9% +12.6 11
1977-12-18 Atalanta D 0-0 1620 1637 42.4% 41.4% 16.2% -1.5 6
1977-12-18 @ Pescara D 0-0 1637 1620 16.2% 41.4% 42.4% +1.5 10
1977-12-18 Genoa W 1-0 1627 1646 42.2% 41.4% 16.3% +5.9 10
1977-12-18 @ Roma L 0-1 1646 1627 16.3% 41.4% 42.2% -5.9 11
1977-12-18 AC Milan W 1-0 1837 1749 52.5% 38.2% 9.3% +3.8 14
1977-12-18 @ Torino L 0-1 1749 1837 9.3% 38.2% 52.5% -3.8 16
1977-12-18 Bologna W 3-0 1658 1636 46.4% 40.6% 13.1% +13.8 14
1977-12-18 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-3 1636 1658 13.1% 40.6% 46.4% -13.9 5
1977-12-31 AC Milan D 1-1 1639 1745 31.6% 41.9% 26.5% -0.2 11
1977-12-31 @ Atalanta D 1-1 1745 1639 26.5% 41.9% 31.6% +0.2 17
1977-12-31 Napoli W 1-0 1652 1701 38.9% 41.8% 19.3% +6.6 8
1977-12-31 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1701 1652 19.3% 41.8% 38.9% -6.6 13
1977-12-31 Perugia L 0-1 1628 1690 37.2% 41.9% 20.8% -9.9 10
1977-12-31 @ Foggia W 1-0 1690 1628 20.8% 41.9% 37.2% +9.9 14
1977-12-31 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1640 1671 40.9% 41.6% 17.5% -10.0 11
1977-12-31 @ Genoa W 2-1 1671 1640 17.5% 41.6% 40.9% +10.0 16
1977-12-31 Roma D 0-0 1645 1633 45.4% 40.8% 13.8% -1.8 12
1977-12-31 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1633 1645 13.8% 40.8% 45.4% +1.8 11
1977-12-31 Pescara D 0-0 1711 1619 52.8% 38.1% 9.2% -2.7 12
1977-12-31 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1619 1711 9.2% 38.1% 52.8% +2.7 7
1977-12-31 Bologna W 1-0 1848 1622 63.4% 31.3% 5.3% +2.0 17
1977-12-31 @ Juventus L 0-1 1622 1848 5.3% 31.3% 63.4% -2.0 5
1977-12-31 Torino D 1-1 1716 1841 29.1% 41.8% 29.2% +0.0 13
1977-12-31 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1841 1716 29.2% 41.8% 29.1% +0.0 15
1978-01-08 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1745 1643 53.6% 37.7% 8.7% -2.5 18
1978-01-08 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1643 1745 8.7% 37.7% 53.6% +2.5 13
1978-01-08 Genoa W 2-1 1620 1630 43.2% 41.3% 15.6% +5.4 7
1978-01-08 @ Bologna L 1-2 1630 1620 15.6% 41.3% 43.2% -5.4 11
1978-01-08 Atalanta W 1-0 1618 1638 42.1% 41.5% 16.5% +5.9 12
1978-01-08 @ Foggia L 0-1 1638 1618 16.5% 41.5% 42.1% -5.9 11
1978-01-08 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1700 1716 42.5% 41.4% 16.1% +20.9 16
1978-01-08 @ Perugia L 0-4 1716 1700 16.1% 41.4% 42.5% -20.9 13
1978-01-08 Juventus L 1-2 1622 1850 17.5% 39.3% 43.2% -5.6 7
1978-01-08 @ Pescara W 2-1 1850 1622 43.2% 39.3% 17.5% +5.6 19
1978-01-08 Inter Milan L 1-2 1635 1708 35.9% 42.0% 22.1% -9.1 11
1978-01-08 @ Roma W 2-1 1708 1635 22.1% 42.0% 35.9% +9.1 14
1978-01-08 Fiorentina W 1-0 1841 1659 60.1% 33.7% 6.2% +2.5 17
1978-01-08 @ Torino L 0-1 1659 1841 6.2% 33.7% 60.1% -2.5 8
1978-01-08 Napoli D 0-0 1681 1694 42.9% 41.3% 15.8% -1.5 17
1978-01-08 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1694 1681 15.8% 41.3% 42.9% +1.5 14
1978-01-15 Torino D 0-0 1633 1843 19.1% 39.8% 41.1% +1.2 12
1978-01-15 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1843 1633 41.1% 39.8% 19.1% -1.2 18
1978-01-15 Pescara W 3-0 1656 1616 48.2% 40.0% 11.8% +12.8 10
1978-01-15 @ Fiorentina L 0-3 1616 1656 11.8% 40.0% 48.2% -12.8 7
1978-01-15 Foggia W 3-1 1646 1624 46.4% 40.5% 13.1% +8.2 15
1978-01-15 @ Hellas Verona L 1-3 1624 1646 13.1% 40.5% 46.4% -8.2 12
1978-01-15 Genoa W 2-0 1717 1625 52.8% 38.1% 9.1% +7.1 16
1978-01-15 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1625 1717 9.1% 38.1% 52.8% -7.1 11
1978-01-15 Roma W 2-0 1855 1626 63.7% 31.1% 5.2% +3.6 21
1978-01-15 @ Juventus L 0-2 1626 1855 5.2% 31.1% 63.7% -3.6 11
1978-01-15 AC Milan W 2-0 1695 1743 39.0% 41.8% 19.2% +12.4 15
1978-01-15 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1743 1695 19.2% 41.8% 39.0% -12.4 18
1978-01-15 Bologna D 0-0 1696 1626 50.9% 39.0% 10.2% -2.5 15
1978-01-15 @ Napoli D 0-0 1626 1696 10.2% 39.0% 50.9% +2.5 8
1978-01-15 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1721 1680 48.3% 40.0% 11.8% -1.9 17
1978-01-15 @ Perugia D 1-1 1680 1721 11.8% 40.0% 48.3% +1.9 18
1978-01-22 Napoli L 0-1 1730 1693 47.9% 40.1% 12.0% -12.0 18
1978-01-22 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1693 1730 12.0% 40.1% 47.9% +12.0 17
1978-01-22 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1628 1708 35.1% 42.0% 22.9% +6.9 10
1978-01-22 @ Bologna L 1-2 1708 1628 22.9% 42.0% 35.1% -6.9 15
1978-01-22 Inter Milan L 0-2 1616 1724 31.4% 41.9% 26.7% -16.5 12
1978-01-22 @ Foggia W 2-0 1724 1616 26.7% 41.9% 31.4% +16.5 18
1978-01-22 Fiorentina W 2-1 1618 1669 38.6% 41.9% 19.6% +6.3 13
1978-01-22 @ Genoa L 1-2 1669 1618 19.6% 41.9% 38.6% -6.3 10
1978-01-22 Perugia D 1-1 1603 1719 30.3% 41.8% 27.9% -0.1 8
1978-01-22 @ Pescara D 1-1 1719 1603 27.9% 41.8% 30.3% +0.1 18
1978-01-22 Atalanta W 3-1 1622 1634 43.0% 41.3% 15.7% +9.4 13
1978-01-22 @ Roma L 1-3 1634 1622 15.7% 41.3% 43.0% -9.4 12
1978-01-22 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1842 1654 60.5% 33.4% 6.1% +2.2 20
1978-01-22 @ Torino L 1-2 1654 1842 6.1% 33.4% 60.5% -2.2 15
1978-01-22 Juventus D 0-0 1682 1859 22.6% 40.8% 36.6% +0.7 19
1978-01-22 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1859 1682 36.6% 40.8% 22.6% -0.7 22
1978-01-29 Fiorentina W 5-1 1718 1663 49.6% 39.5% 10.9% +13.1 20
1978-01-29 @ AC Milan L 1-5 1663 1718 10.9% 39.5% 49.6% -13.1 10
1978-01-29 Inter Milan W 2-1 1635 1741 31.7% 41.9% 26.4% +7.5 12
1978-01-29 @ Bologna L 1-2 1741 1635 26.4% 41.9% 31.7% -7.5 18
1978-01-29 Juventus D 0-0 1599 1858 15.1% 38.0% 46.8% +1.8 13
1978-01-29 @ Foggia D 0-0 1858 1599 46.8% 38.0% 15.1% -1.8 23
1978-01-29 Genoa D 0-0 1701 1624 51.4% 38.7% 9.8% -2.5 16
1978-01-29 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1624 1701 9.8% 38.7% 51.4% +2.5 14
1978-01-29 Pescara D 1-1 1705 1603 53.6% 37.6% 8.7% -2.5 18
1978-01-29 @ Napoli D 1-1 1603 1705 8.7% 37.6% 53.6% +2.5 9
1978-01-29 Atalanta D 1-1 1719 1624 53.0% 38.0% 9.0% -2.4 19
1978-01-29 @ Perugia D 1-1 1624 1719 9.0% 38.0% 53.0% +2.4 13
1978-01-29 Roma D 1-1 1844 1632 62.4% 32.0% 5.5% -3.2 21
1978-01-29 @ Torino D 1-1 1632 1844 5.5% 32.0% 62.4% +3.2 14
1978-01-29 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1683 1652 47.3% 40.3% 12.4% +4.9 21
1978-01-29 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1652 1683 12.4% 40.3% 47.3% -4.9 15
1978-02-05 Bologna D 0-0 1627 1643 42.5% 41.4% 16.1% -1.5 14
1978-02-05 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1643 1627 16.1% 41.4% 42.5% +1.5 13
1978-02-05 Foggia D 1-1 1650 1601 49.0% 39.7% 11.3% -2.0 11
1978-02-05 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1601 1650 11.3% 39.7% 49.0% +2.0 14
1978-02-05 AC Milan D 1-1 1627 1731 31.8% 41.9% 26.2% -0.2 15
1978-02-05 @ Genoa D 1-1 1731 1627 26.2% 41.9% 31.8% +0.2 21
1978-02-05 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1647 1698 38.6% 41.9% 19.6% -0.7 16
1978-02-05 @ Hellas Verona D 2-2 1698 1647 19.6% 41.9% 38.6% +0.7 17
1978-02-05 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1733 1687 48.7% 39.8% 11.5% +8.6 20
1978-02-05 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1687 1733 11.5% 39.8% 48.7% -8.6 21
1978-02-05 Napoli W 1-0 1856 1703 57.8% 35.2% 7.0% +2.8 25
1978-02-05 @ Juventus L 0-1 1703 1856 7.0% 35.2% 57.8% -2.8 18
1978-02-05 Torino W 2-1 1606 1841 16.9% 39.0% 44.1% +10.3 11
1978-02-05 @ Pescara L 1-2 1841 1606 44.1% 39.0% 16.9% -10.3 21
1978-02-05 Perugia W 2-0 1635 1717 34.8% 42.0% 23.2% +13.9 16
1978-02-05 @ Roma L 0-2 1717 1635 23.2% 42.0% 34.8% -13.9 19
1978-02-12 Juventus D 0-0 1732 1859 28.7% 41.7% 29.6% +0.1 22
1978-02-12 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1859 1732 29.6% 41.7% 28.7% -0.0 26
1978-02-12 Pescara D 1-1 1644 1616 47.0% 40.4% 12.6% -1.8 14
1978-02-12 @ Bologna D 1-1 1616 1644 12.6% 40.4% 47.0% +1.8 12
1978-02-12 Roma D 0-0 1603 1649 39.2% 41.8% 19.0% -1.1 15
1978-02-12 @ Foggia D 0-0 1649 1603 19.0% 41.8% 39.2% +1.1 17
1978-02-12 Fiorentina D 0-0 1646 1648 44.1% 41.1% 14.8% -1.7 17
1978-02-12 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1648 1646 14.8% 41.1% 44.1% +1.6 12
1978-02-12 Atalanta L 0-2 1699 1625 51.2% 38.8% 10.0% -24.0 17
1978-02-12 @ Lazio Roma W 2-0 1625 1699 10.0% 38.8% 51.2% +24.0 16
1978-02-12 Inter Milan D 2-2 1700 1742 39.7% 41.8% 18.6% -0.8 19
1978-02-12 @ Napoli D 2-2 1742 1700 18.6% 41.8% 39.7% +0.8 21
1978-02-12 Genoa D 0-0 1703 1627 51.5% 38.7% 9.8% -2.5 20
1978-02-12 @ Perugia D 0-0 1627 1703 9.8% 38.7% 51.5% +2.5 16
1978-02-12 Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1831 1679 57.7% 35.3% 7.0% -2.1 22
1978-02-12 @ Torino D 2-2 1679 1831 7.0% 35.3% 57.7% +2.1 22
1978-02-19 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1649 1645 44.7% 41.0% 14.3% +5.4 18
1978-02-19 @ Atalanta L 0-1 1645 1649 14.3% 41.0% 44.7% -5.4 17
1978-02-19 Foggia W 2-1 1642 1602 48.2% 40.0% 11.8% +4.4 16
1978-02-19 @ Bologna L 1-2 1602 1642 11.8% 40.0% 48.2% -4.4 15
1978-02-19 Perugia W 2-1 1650 1701 38.6% 41.9% 19.6% +6.3 14
1978-02-19 @ Fiorentina L 1-2 1701 1650 19.6% 41.9% 38.6% -6.3 20
1978-02-19 Napoli D 1-1 1629 1699 36.3% 42.0% 21.8% -0.7 17
1978-02-19 @ Genoa D 1-1 1699 1629 21.8% 42.0% 36.3% +0.7 20
1978-02-19 Torino D 0-0 1742 1829 34.2% 42.0% 23.8% -0.5 22
1978-02-19 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1829 1742 23.8% 42.0% 34.2% +0.5 23
1978-02-19 Lazio Roma W 3-0 1859 1675 60.2% 33.6% 6.2% +6.6 28
1978-02-19 @ Juventus L 0-3 1675 1859 6.2% 33.6% 60.2% -6.6 17
1978-02-19 Pescara W 2-0 1650 1618 47.4% 40.2% 12.3% +9.1 19
1978-02-19 @ Roma L 0-2 1618 1650 12.3% 40.2% 47.4% -9.1 12
1978-02-19 AC Milan D 1-1 1681 1732 38.6% 41.9% 19.5% -0.9 23
1978-02-19 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1732 1681 19.5% 41.9% 38.6% +0.9 23
1978-02-26 Roma W 1-0 1733 1659 51.2% 38.8% 10.0% +4.1 25
1978-02-26 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1659 1733 10.0% 38.8% 51.2% -4.1 19
1978-02-26 Juventus D 1-1 1656 1866 19.2% 39.9% 41.0% +1.0 15
1978-02-26 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1866 1656 41.0% 39.9% 19.2% -1.0 29
1978-02-26 Genoa W 2-0 1639 1628 45.3% 40.8% 13.9% +10.0 19
1978-02-26 @ Hellas Verona L 0-2 1628 1639 13.9% 40.8% 45.3% -10.0 17
1978-02-26 Inter Milan W 1-0 1668 1742 35.8% 42.0% 22.2% +7.2 19
1978-02-26 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1742 1668 22.2% 42.0% 35.8% -7.2 22
1978-02-26 Atalanta D 2-2 1700 1655 48.6% 39.8% 11.5% -1.5 21
1978-02-26 @ Napoli D 2-2 1655 1700 11.5% 39.8% 48.6% +1.5 19
1978-02-26 Bologna W 2-0 1694 1647 48.9% 39.8% 11.4% +8.6 22
1978-02-26 @ Perugia L 0-2 1647 1694 11.4% 39.8% 48.9% -8.6 16
1978-02-26 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1609 1680 36.1% 42.0% 21.9% -9.1 12
1978-02-26 @ Pescara W 2-1 1680 1609 21.9% 42.0% 36.1% +9.1 25
1978-02-26 Foggia W 3-1 1829 1598 63.9% 30.9% 5.2% +3.1 25
1978-02-26 @ Torino L 1-3 1598 1829 5.2% 30.9% 63.9% -3.1 15
1978-03-05 Hellas Verona L 0-3 1638 1649 43.0% 41.3% 15.7% -30.2 16
1978-03-05 @ Bologna W 3-0 1649 1638 15.7% 41.3% 43.0% +30.2 21
1978-03-05 AC Milan L 1-2 1595 1737 26.8% 41.5% 31.7% -7.5 15
1978-03-05 @ Foggia W 2-1 1737 1595 31.7% 41.5% 26.8% +7.5 27
1978-03-05 Torino L 1-2 1618 1832 18.8% 39.7% 41.5% -5.9 17
1978-03-05 @ Genoa W 2-1 1832 1618 41.5% 39.7% 18.8% +5.9 27
1978-03-05 Fiorentina W 2-1 1735 1657 51.6% 38.6% 9.8% +3.8 24
1978-03-05 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1657 1735 9.8% 38.6% 51.6% -3.8 15
1978-03-05 Perugia W 2-0 1865 1703 58.5% 34.8% 6.7% +5.1 31
1978-03-05 @ Juventus L 0-2 1703 1865 6.7% 34.8% 58.5% -5.1 22
1978-03-05 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1600 1675 35.5% 42.0% 22.5% +7.2 14
1978-03-05 @ Pescara L 0-1 1675 1600 22.5% 42.0% 35.5% -7.2 19
1978-03-05 Napoli D 0-0 1655 1698 39.5% 41.8% 18.8% -1.1 20
1978-03-05 @ Roma D 0-0 1698 1655 18.8% 41.8% 39.5% +1.1 22
1978-03-05 Atalanta D 2-2 1689 1656 47.5% 40.2% 12.3% -1.4 26
1978-03-05 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1656 1689 12.3% 40.2% 47.5% +1.4 20
1978-03-12 Inter Milan D 0-0 1744 1739 44.8% 40.9% 14.3% -1.7 28
1978-03-12 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1739 1744 14.3% 40.9% 44.8% +1.7 25
1978-03-12 Juventus L 0-2 1658 1870 18.9% 39.8% 41.3% -11.9 20
1978-03-12 @ Atalanta W 2-0 1870 1658 41.3% 39.8% 18.9% +11.9 33
1978-03-12 Roma W 2-0 1653 1654 44.1% 41.1% 14.8% +10.4 17
1978-03-12 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1654 1653 14.8% 41.1% 44.1% -10.4 20
1978-03-12 Genoa D 1-1 1587 1613 41.5% 41.5% 17.0% -1.2 16
1978-03-12 @ Foggia D 1-1 1613 1587 17.0% 41.5% 41.5% +1.2 18
1978-03-12 Pescara W 1-0 1679 1607 51.1% 38.9% 10.0% +4.1 23
1978-03-12 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1607 1679 10.0% 38.9% 51.1% -4.1 14
1978-03-12 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-3 1668 1688 42.1% 41.4% 16.4% -17.7 19
1978-03-12 @ Lazio Roma W 3-1 1688 1668 16.4% 41.4% 42.1% +17.7 28
1978-03-12 Napoli W 2-0 1698 1700 44.0% 41.1% 14.8% +10.5 24
1978-03-12 @ Perugia L 0-2 1700 1698 14.8% 41.1% 44.0% -10.5 22
1978-03-12 Bologna W 2-0 1838 1608 63.8% 31.0% 5.2% +3.6 29
1978-03-12 @ Torino L 0-2 1608 1838 5.2% 31.0% 63.8% -3.6 16
1978-03-19 AC Milan D 0-0 1604 1742 27.3% 41.6% 31.1% +0.2 17
1978-03-19 @ Bologna D 0-0 1742 1604 31.1% 41.6% 27.3% -0.2 29
1978-03-19 Atalanta L 0-1 1614 1646 40.8% 41.6% 17.6% -10.6 18
1978-03-19 @ Genoa W 1-0 1646 1614 17.6% 41.6% 40.8% +10.6 22
1978-03-19 Perugia W 2-0 1740 1708 47.4% 40.2% 12.4% +9.1 27
1978-03-19 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1708 1740 12.4% 40.2% 47.4% -9.1 24
1978-03-19 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1882 1684 61.3% 32.8% 5.8% +2.3 35
1978-03-19 @ Juventus L 0-1 1684 1882 5.8% 32.8% 61.3% -2.3 23
1978-03-19 Roma D 1-1 1651 1644 44.9% 40.9% 14.2% -1.6 20
1978-03-19 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1644 1651 14.2% 40.9% 44.9% +1.6 21
1978-03-19 Torino L 1-3 1689 1842 25.4% 41.3% 33.3% -12.6 22
1978-03-19 @ Napoli W 3-1 1842 1689 33.3% 41.3% 25.4% +12.6 31
1978-03-19 Foggia L 1-2 1603 1586 45.9% 40.7% 13.4% -11.0 14
1978-03-19 @ Pescara W 2-1 1586 1603 13.4% 40.7% 45.9% +11.0 18
1978-03-19 Fiorentina W 1-0 1706 1664 48.3% 39.9% 11.7% +4.7 30
1978-03-19 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1664 1706 11.7% 39.9% 48.3% -4.7 17
1978-03-26 Pescara W 2-0 1742 1592 57.6% 35.4% 7.0% +5.4 31
1978-03-26 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1592 1742 7.0% 35.4% 57.6% -5.4 14
1978-03-26 Inter Milan L 0-1 1656 1749 33.3% 42.0% 24.7% -9.1 22
1978-03-26 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1749 1656 24.7% 42.0% 33.3% +9.1 29
1978-03-26 Bologna D 0-0 1659 1605 49.5% 39.5% 11.0% -2.3 18
1978-03-26 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1605 1659 11.0% 39.5% 49.5% +2.3 18
1978-03-26 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1597 1649 38.4% 41.9% 19.7% +10.9 20
1978-03-26 @ Foggia L 1-3 1649 1597 19.7% 41.9% 38.4% -10.9 20
1978-03-26 Juventus D 2-2 1603 1884 13.7% 37.1% 49.3% +1.4 19
1978-03-26 @ Genoa D 2-2 1884 1603 49.3% 37.1% 13.7% -1.4 36
1978-03-26 Napoli L 0-1 1681 1677 44.7% 41.0% 14.3% -11.4 23
1978-03-26 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1677 1681 14.3% 41.0% 44.7% +11.4 24
1978-03-26 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1645 1710 36.9% 41.9% 21.2% -0.7 22
1978-03-26 @ Roma D 1-1 1710 1645 21.2% 41.9% 36.9% +0.7 31
1978-03-26 Perugia D 1-1 1854 1699 58.0% 35.1% 6.9% -2.9 32
1978-03-26 @ Torino D 1-1 1699 1854 6.9% 35.1% 58.0% +2.9 25
1978-04-02 Atalanta D 2-2 1657 1647 45.2% 40.8% 14.0% -1.2 19
1978-04-02 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1647 1657 14.0% 40.8% 45.2% +1.2 23
1978-04-02 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1759 1670 52.5% 38.2% 9.3% -2.6 30
1978-04-02 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1670 1759 9.3% 38.2% 52.5% +2.6 24
1978-04-02 Torino D 0-0 1883 1852 47.3% 40.3% 12.4% -2.0 37
1978-04-02 @ Juventus D 0-0 1852 1883 12.4% 40.3% 47.3% +2.0 33
1978-04-02 Lazio Roma W 4-3 1688 1638 49.1% 39.7% 11.2% +3.9 26
1978-04-02 @ Napoli L 3-4 1638 1688 11.2% 39.7% 49.1% -3.9 20
1978-04-02 AC Milan L 0-1 1702 1748 39.2% 41.8% 19.0% -10.2 25
1978-04-02 @ Perugia W 1-0 1748 1702 19.0% 41.8% 39.2% +10.3 33
1978-04-02 Genoa D 0-0 1586 1605 42.3% 41.4% 16.3% -1.4 15
1978-04-02 @ Pescara D 0-0 1605 1586 16.3% 41.4% 42.3% +1.4 20
1978-04-02 Bologna D 1-1 1644 1607 47.9% 40.1% 12.0% -1.9 23
1978-04-02 @ Roma D 1-1 1607 1644 12.0% 40.1% 47.9% +1.9 19
1978-04-02 Foggia W 2-0 1711 1608 53.7% 37.6% 8.7% +6.7 33
1978-04-02 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-2 1608 1711 8.7% 37.6% 53.7% -6.7 20
1978-04-09 Torino D 1-1 1758 1854 33.0% 42.0% 25.0% -0.4 34
1978-04-09 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1854 1758 25.0% 42.0% 33.0% +0.4 34
1978-04-09 Pescara W 2-0 1648 1585 50.3% 39.2% 10.5% +8.0 25
1978-04-09 @ Atalanta L 0-2 1585 1648 10.5% 39.2% 50.3% -8.0 15
1978-04-09 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-2 1609 1718 31.2% 41.9% 26.9% +7.2 21
1978-04-09 @ Bologna L 2-3 1718 1609 26.9% 41.9% 31.2% -7.2 33
1978-04-09 Napoli D 1-1 1601 1692 33.6% 42.0% 24.4% -0.4 21
1978-04-09 @ Foggia D 1-1 1692 1601 24.4% 42.0% 33.6% +0.4 27
1978-04-09 Roma W 1-0 1606 1643 40.2% 41.7% 18.0% +6.3 22
1978-04-09 @ Genoa L 0-1 1643 1606 18.0% 41.7% 40.2% -6.3 23
1978-04-09 Perugia D 0-0 1673 1692 42.2% 41.4% 16.4% -1.4 25
1978-04-09 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1692 1673 16.4% 41.4% 42.2% +1.4 26
1978-04-09 Inter Milan D 2-2 1881 1756 55.5% 36.6% 7.9% -2.0 38
1978-04-09 @ Juventus D 2-2 1756 1881 7.9% 36.6% 55.5% +2.0 31
1978-04-09 Fiorentina W 1-0 1634 1655 42.0% 41.5% 16.6% +6.0 22
1978-04-09 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1655 1634 16.6% 41.5% 42.0% -6.0 19
1978-04-16 Atalanta L 0-1 1757 1656 53.6% 37.7% 8.7% -13.2 34
1978-04-16 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1656 1757 8.7% 37.7% 53.6% +13.2 27
1978-04-16 Juventus D 1-1 1616 1879 14.9% 37.9% 47.3% +1.6 22
1978-04-16 @ Bologna D 1-1 1879 1616 47.3% 37.9% 14.9% -1.6 39
1978-04-16 Fiorentina D 0-0 1692 1649 48.4% 39.9% 11.7% -2.2 28
1978-04-16 @ Napoli D 0-0 1649 1692 11.7% 39.9% 48.4% +2.2 20
1978-04-16 Foggia W 3-1 1693 1601 52.8% 38.1% 9.1% +6.1 28
1978-04-16 @ Perugia L 1-3 1601 1693 9.1% 38.1% 52.8% -6.1 21
1978-04-16 Inter Milan W 2-1 1577 1758 22.1% 40.7% 37.2% +9.2 17
1978-04-16 @ Pescara L 1-2 1758 1577 37.2% 40.7% 22.1% -9.2 31
1978-04-16 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1636 1671 40.4% 41.7% 17.9% +5.9 25
1978-04-16 @ Roma L 1-2 1671 1636 17.9% 41.7% 40.4% -5.9 25
1978-04-16 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1854 1640 62.5% 31.9% 5.5% +2.1 36
1978-04-16 @ Torino L 0-1 1640 1854 5.5% 31.9% 62.5% -2.1 22
1978-04-16 Genoa W 1-0 1710 1612 53.3% 37.8% 8.9% +3.6 35
1978-04-16 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1612 1710 8.9% 37.8% 53.3% -3.6 22
1978-04-23 Foggia L 1-2 1669 1594 51.3% 38.8% 9.9% -12.0 27
1978-04-23 @ Atalanta W 2-1 1594 1669 9.9% 38.8% 51.3% +12.0 23
1978-04-23 Torino W 2-0 1652 1856 19.7% 40.0% 40.3% +19.4 22
1978-04-23 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1856 1652 40.3% 40.0% 19.7% -19.4 36
1978-04-23 Bologna D 0-0 1609 1618 43.3% 41.2% 15.5% -1.6 23
1978-04-23 @ Genoa D 0-0 1618 1609 15.5% 41.2% 43.3% +1.6 23
1978-04-23 AC Milan L 1-2 1665 1744 35.1% 42.0% 22.9% -8.9 25
1978-04-23 @ Hellas Verona W 2-1 1744 1665 22.9% 42.0% 35.1% +8.9 36
1978-04-23 Roma W 4-2 1749 1642 54.0% 37.5% 8.5% +5.1 33
1978-04-23 @ Inter Milan L 2-4 1642 1749 8.5% 37.5% 54.0% -5.1 25
1978-04-23 Pescara W 2-0 1877 1586 68.3% 27.5% 4.2% +2.7 41
1978-04-23 @ Juventus L 0-2 1586 1877 4.2% 27.5% 68.3% -2.6 17
1978-04-23 Perugia W 2-0 1638 1699 37.4% 41.9% 20.7% +13.0 24
1978-04-23 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1699 1638 20.7% 41.9% 37.4% -13.0 28
1978-04-23 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-4 1690 1714 41.7% 41.5% 16.8% -24.8 28
1978-04-23 @ Napoli W 4-1 1714 1690 16.8% 41.5% 41.7% +24.8 37
1978-04-30 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1753 1651 53.7% 37.6% 8.7% -24.9 36
1978-04-30 @ AC Milan W 2-0 1651 1753 8.7% 37.6% 53.7% +24.9 26
1978-04-30 Napoli D 0-0 1619 1665 39.1% 41.8% 19.1% -1.1 24
1978-04-30 @ Bologna D 0-0 1665 1619 19.1% 41.8% 39.1% +1.1 29
1978-04-30 Hellas Verona W 4-0 1606 1656 38.7% 41.9% 19.4% +23.6 25
1978-04-30 @ Foggia L 0-4 1656 1606 19.4% 41.9% 38.7% -23.7 25
1978-04-30 Inter Milan D 1-1 1607 1754 26.2% 41.4% 32.4% +0.3 24
1978-04-30 @ Genoa D 1-1 1754 1607 32.4% 41.4% 26.2% -0.3 34
1978-04-30 Fiorentina L 1-2 1583 1671 34.1% 42.0% 23.9% -8.7 17
1978-04-30 @ Pescara W 2-1 1671 1583 23.9% 42.0% 34.1% +8.7 24
1978-04-30 Juventus D 1-1 1637 1880 16.3% 38.7% 45.0% +1.4 26
1978-04-30 @ Roma D 1-1 1880 1637 45.0% 38.7% 16.3% -1.4 42
1978-04-30 Atalanta W 3-2 1837 1657 59.9% 33.9% 6.3% +2.2 38
1978-04-30 @ Torino L 2-3 1657 1837 6.3% 33.9% 59.9% -2.2 27
1978-04-30 Perugia W 3-1 1739 1686 49.3% 39.6% 11.1% +7.3 39
1978-04-30 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-3 1686 1739 11.1% 39.6% 49.3% -7.3 28
1978-05-07 Roma L 0-1 1655 1638 45.9% 40.7% 13.4% -11.6 27
1978-05-07 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1638 1655 13.4% 40.7% 45.9% +11.6 28
1978-05-07 Genoa D 0-0 1680 1607 51.1% 38.9% 10.0% -2.5 25
1978-05-07 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1607 1680 10.0% 38.9% 51.1% +2.5 25
1978-05-07 Torino D 0-0 1633 1839 19.5% 40.0% 40.5% +1.1 26
1978-05-07 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1839 1633 40.5% 40.0% 19.5% -1.1 39
1978-05-07 Foggia W 2-1 1754 1630 55.4% 36.7% 7.9% +3.1 36
1978-05-07 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1630 1754 7.9% 36.7% 55.4% -3.1 25
1978-05-07 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-2 1878 1746 56.1% 36.3% 7.6% +2.8 44
1978-05-07 @ Juventus L 2-3 1746 1878 7.6% 36.3% 56.1% -2.8 39
1978-05-07 Bologna L 0-1 1676 1618 49.8% 39.4% 10.8% -12.4 26
1978-05-07 @ Lazio Roma W 1-0 1618 1676 10.8% 39.4% 49.8% +12.4 26
1978-05-07 AC Milan D 1-1 1666 1728 37.3% 41.9% 20.8% -0.8 30
1978-05-07 @ Napoli D 1-1 1728 1666 20.8% 41.9% 37.3% +0.8 37
1978-05-07 Pescara W 2-1 1679 1575 53.8% 37.5% 8.6% +3.3 30
1978-05-07 @ Perugia L 1-2 1575 1679 8.6% 37.5% 53.8% -3.3 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1978-04-30 8.70% Lazio Roma 1651 2 @ AC Milan 1753 0
2 1978-04-16 8.74% Atalanta 1656 1 @ AC Milan 1757 0
3 1978-04-23 9.91% Foggia 1594 2 @ Atalanta 1669 1
4 1978-02-12 9.98% Atalanta 1625 2 @ Lazio Roma 1699 0
5 1977-09-25 10.04% Hellas Verona 1644 2 @ Fiorentina 1717 1
6 1977-12-18 10.13% Hellas Verona 1633 1 @ Perugia 1703 0
7 1978-05-07 10.80% Bologna 1618 1 @ Lazio Roma 1676 0
8 1977-10-30 11.12% Lanerossi Vicenza 1607 4 @ Atalanta 1659 2
9 1977-09-11 11.88% Bologna 1676 1 @ Inter Milan 1716 0
10 1977-11-20 12.00% Lanerossi Vicenza 1632 3 @ Fiorentina 1670 1
11 1977-09-11 12.02% Napoli 1641 3 @ Pescara 1679 1
12 1978-01-22 12.04% Napoli 1693 1 @ AC Milan 1730 0
13 1977-11-06 12.98% AC Milan 1710 3 @ Inter Milan 1732 1
14 1978-03-19 13.41% Foggia 1586 2 @ Pescara 1603 1
15 1978-05-07 13.42% Roma 1638 1 @ Atalanta 1655 0
16 1977-10-02 14.21% Atalanta 1650 2 @ Hellas Verona 1656 1
17 1978-03-26 14.33% Napoli 1677 1 @ Hellas Verona 1681 0
18 1977-11-27 14.76% Fiorentina 1650 1 @ Bologna 1649 0
19 1977-10-23 15.25% Perugia 1680 3 @ Bologna 1674 2
20 1978-03-05 15.65% Hellas Verona 1649 3 @ Bologna 1638 0
21 1978-03-12 16.41% Lanerossi Vicenza 1688 3 @ Lazio Roma 1668 1
22 1977-10-30 16.72% Inter Milan 1712 2 @ Fiorentina 1689 0
23 1978-04-23 16.82% Lanerossi Vicenza 1714 4 @ Napoli 1690 1
24 1978-02-05 16.92% @ Pescara 1606 2 Torino 1841 1
25 1977-12-31 17.49% Lanerossi Vicenza 1671 2 @ Genoa 1640 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1978-03-05 30.19 Hellas Verona 3 1649 15.65% @ Bologna 0 1638 43.05% 41.30%
2 1977-10-02 25.54 @ Lazio Roma 3 1685 24.09% Juventus 0 1849 34.79% 41.12%
3 1978-04-30 24.87 Lazio Roma 2 1651 8.70% @ AC Milan 0 1753 53.66% 37.64%
4 1978-04-23 24.81 Lanerossi Vicenza 4 1714 16.82% @ Napoli 1 1690 41.66% 41.52%
5 1978-02-12 23.96 Atalanta 2 1625 9.98% @ Lazio Roma 0 1699 51.20% 38.82%
6 1978-04-30 23.66 @ Foggia 4 1606 38.71% Hellas Verona 0 1656 19.44% 41.85%
7 1977-12-18 21.58 @ Napoli 5 1679 47.16% Foggia 0 1650 12.52% 40.32%
8 1978-01-08 20.91 @ Perugia 4 1700 42.55% Lazio Roma 0 1716 16.06% 41.38%
9 1977-10-30 20.30 Inter Milan 2 1712 16.72% @ Fiorentina 0 1689 41.77% 41.51%
10 1977-11-20 19.65 Lanerossi Vicenza 3 1632 12.00% @ Fiorentina 1 1670 47.92% 40.08%
11 1977-09-11 19.64 Napoli 3 1641 12.02% @ Pescara 1 1679 47.89% 40.09%
12 1978-04-23 19.39 @ Fiorentina 2 1652 19.69% Torino 0 1856 40.27% 40.04%
13 1977-11-06 19.17 AC Milan 3 1710 12.98% @ Inter Milan 1 1732 46.52% 40.50%
14 1977-11-27 18.01 @ Perugia 2 1684 22.99% Torino 0 1857 36.11% 40.91%
15 1977-10-30 17.98 Lanerossi Vicenza 4 1607 11.12% @ Atalanta 2 1659 49.27% 39.60%
16 1978-03-12 17.70 Lanerossi Vicenza 3 1688 16.41% @ Lazio Roma 1 1668 42.14% 41.45%
17 1977-11-27 17.39 AC Milan 2 1733 24.23% @ Pescara 0 1643 33.78% 41.99%
18 1978-01-22 16.55 Inter Milan 2 1724 26.74% @ Foggia 0 1616 31.35% 41.91%
19 1977-11-27 14.16 @ Napoli 3 1663 45.83% Hellas Verona 0 1647 13.48% 40.69%
20 1978-02-05 13.88 @ Roma 2 1635 34.78% Perugia 0 1717 23.23% 41.99%
21 1977-12-18 13.86 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 3 1658 46.37% Bologna 0 1636 13.09% 40.55%
22 1978-04-16 13.17 Atalanta 1 1656 8.74% @ AC Milan 0 1757 53.57% 37.69%
23 1978-01-29 13.12 @ AC Milan 5 1718 49.56% Fiorentina 1 1663 10.94% 39.49%
24 1978-04-23 12.96 @ Lazio Roma 2 1638 37.35% Perugia 0 1699 20.72% 41.93%
25 1978-01-15 12.82 @ Fiorentina 3 1656 48.19% Pescara 0 1616 11.82% 39.99%