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1978-79 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

AC Milan

44 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 1967-68

Relegated

Hellas Verona

15 pts

Vicenza · 24 pts

Atalanta · 24 pts

Biggest Overachiever

AC Milan

7.66 points above expected

44 points · 36.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hellas Verona

8.80 points below expected

15 points · 23.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 AC Milan Champion 30 17 10 3 44 46 19 +27 36.34 +7.66
2 Perugia 30 11 19 0 41 34 16 +18 33.61 +7.39
3 Juventus 30 12 13 5 37 40 23 +17 36.99 +0.01
4 Inter Milan 30 10 16 4 36 38 24 +14 34.75 +1.25
5 Torino 30 11 14 5 36 35 23 +12 35.67 +0.33
6 Napoli 30 9 14 7 32 23 21 +2 29.17 +2.83
7 Fiorentina 30 10 12 8 32 26 26 0 29.64 +2.36
8 Lazio Roma 30 9 11 10 29 35 40 -5 29.28 -0.28
9 Catanzaro 30 6 16 8 28 23 30 -7 27.07 +0.93
10 Ascoli 30 7 12 11 26 26 31 -5 27.40 -1.40
11 Avellino 30 6 14 10 26 19 26 -7 29.04 -3.04
12 Roma 30 8 10 12 26 24 32 -8 26.37 -0.37
13 Bologna 30 4 16 10 24 23 30 -7 26.18 -2.18
14 Lanerossi Vicenza 30 5 14 11 24 29 42 -13 29.21 -5.21
15 Atalanta Relegated 30 6 12 12 24 20 33 -13 25.49 -1.49
16 Hellas Verona Relegated 30 2 11 17 15 14 39 -25 23.80 -8.80

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
AC Milan 1826 44 36.34 +7.66 98.6% 22 30 34 36 39 42 51
Juventus 1791 37 36.99 +0.01 55.2% 20 31 35 37 39 43 49
Perugia 1757 41 33.61 +7.39 98.3% 21 28 31 34 36 40 49
Inter Milan 1737 36 34.75 +1.25 68.1% 19 29 32 35 37 41 50
Torino 1733 36 35.67 +0.33 58.8% 21 30 33 36 38 42 50
Napoli 1668 32 29.17 +2.83 81.7% 15 23 27 29 32 35 43
Fiorentina 1662 32 29.64 +2.36 78.0% 17 23 27 30 32 36 43
Lazio Roma 1635 29 29.28 -0.28 52.6% 16 23 27 29 32 35 44
Avellino 1628 26 29.04 -3.04 24.8% 16 23 27 29 32 35 44
Catanzaro 1624 28 27.07 +0.93 64.8% 14 21 25 27 30 33 41
Roma 1616 26 26.37 -0.37 51.6% 12 20 24 26 29 33 40
Ascoli 1615 26 27.40 -1.40 40.8% 14 21 25 27 30 34 45
Bologna 1600 24 26.18 -2.18 32.6% 14 20 24 26 29 32 40
Lanerossi Vicenza 1599 24 29.21 -5.21 10.4% 16 23 27 29 32 35 43
Atalanta 1587 24 25.49 -1.49 39.9% 12 20 23 25 28 32 40
Hellas Verona 1524 15 23.80 -8.80 1.0% 8 18 21 24 26 30 41

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ASC ATA AVE BOL CAT FIO HV IM JUV LV LR NAP PER ROM TOR
AC Milan —
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
3.30
2-0-0
3.74
1-1-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.56
0-1-1
3.21
0-2-0
2.75
2-0-0
3.08
2-0-0
2.53
Ascoli
0-1-1
1.68
 —
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.62
0-2-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.32
2-0-0
2.84
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
1.57
0-2-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
1.72
Atalanta
0-1-1
1.85
1-0-1
2.19
 —
0-2-0
2.23
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.60
1-1-0
1.94
1-1-0
2.62
0-1-1
1.56
0-0-2
1.48
1-1-0
2.25
0-2-0
2.14
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.92
1-1-0
2.35
0-0-2
1.84
Avellino
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.61
0-2-0
2.86
 —
0-2-0
2.85
0-2-0
2.67
0-1-1
2.47
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
1.81
0-2-0
1.80
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.22
0-1-1
2.79
0-1-1
1.87
Bologna
0-1-1
1.46
0-2-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.65
0-2-0
2.24
 —
0-2-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
1.99
0-2-0
1.66
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.24
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
1.69
Catanzaro
0-0-2
1.57
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.47
0-2-0
2.41
0-2-0
2.69
 —
0-2-0
2.41
0-2-0
3.02
0-2-0
1.83
0-1-1
1.60
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
1.90
2-0-0
2.53
1-0-1
1.78
Fiorentina
0-0-2
1.79
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
3.16
1-1-0
2.60
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
2.65
 —
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.06
0-1-1
1.97
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.26
1-1-0
2.86
0-2-0
1.93
Hellas Verona
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
2.26
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
2.31
0-2-0
2.05
0-0-2
1.98
 —
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.54
0-2-0
1.87
1-0-1
1.81
0-1-1
1.87
0-2-0
1.45
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
1.55
Inter Milan
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
3.19
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.29
1-1-0
3.14
0-2-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.27
 —
1-1-0
2.32
1-1-0
3.31
1-1-0
2.96
1-1-0
3.10
0-2-0
2.69
0-1-1
3.42
0-2-0
2.41
Juventus
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
3.71
0-2-0
3.34
0-2-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.60
0-1-1
2.76
 —
0-1-1
3.51
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.29
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.63
1-1-0
2.58
Lanerossi Vicenza
0-1-1
1.89
0-2-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
3.22
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-0
1.62
 —
1-0-1
2.50
0-2-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
1.89
Lazio Roma
0-1-1
1.58
1-1-0
2.66
0-2-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
3.28
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
1.88
1-0-1
2.56
 —
1-0-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.94
0-2-0
1.98
Napoli
1-1-0
1.91
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
1.98
0-1-1
1.84
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.59
 —
0-1-1
2.14
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
1.94
Perugia
0-2-0
2.33
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
2.80
0-2-0
3.71
0-2-0
2.39
1-1-0
2.14
1-1-0
2.67
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.95
 —
0-2-0
3.36
0-2-0
2.33
Roma
0-0-2
2.06
1-1-0
2.40
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.28
2-0-0
2.49
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
1.73
1-0-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.33
0-2-0
1.78
 —
0-0-2
1.81
Torino
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
3.42
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
3.35
0-2-0
3.16
1-1-0
3.64
0-2-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.21
0-2-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.17
0-2-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +7.3
Allowed 0.67 -8.0
Differential 0.96 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.92%10.42%4.79%2.08%1.04%—41.25%
110.42%16.25%4.58%2.71%0.62%—34.58%
24.79%4.58%4.58%0.83%—0.42%15.21%
32.08%2.71%0.83%0.83%0.21%—6.67%
41.04%0.62%—0.21%——1.88%
5+——0.42%———0.42%
Total41.25%34.58%15.21%6.67%1.88%0.42%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 0.95 +0.00
SD 1.04 1.04 1.36
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%————23.33%
120.00%16.67%————36.67%
23.33%3.33%3.33%———10.00%
36.67%10.00%6.67%———23.33%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+———————
Total46.67%43.33%10.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.63 +0.90
SD 1.28 0.67 1.27
CV 0.83 1.06 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%13.33%3.33%———40.00%
110.00%13.33%6.67%10.00%——40.00%
23.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%——13.33%
33.33%—3.33%———6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%16.67%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 1.03 -0.17
SD 0.90 1.07 1.18
CV 1.04 1.03 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%16.67%13.33%6.67%——56.67%
16.67%13.33%—3.33%——23.33%
26.67%3.33%6.67%———16.67%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%23.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.10 -0.43
SD 0.88 0.99 1.30
CV 1.33 0.90 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
033.33%13.33%6.67%3.33%——56.67%
110.00%10.00%6.67%3.33%——30.00%
23.33%3.33%————6.67%
3—3.33%—3.33%——6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total46.67%30.00%13.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.63 0.87 -0.23
SD 0.89 1.01 1.14
CV 1.41 1.16 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
030.00%16.67%3.33%———50.00%
16.67%13.33%6.67%6.67%——33.33%
2—3.33%10.00%———13.33%
3———————
4———————
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total36.67%33.33%23.33%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.00 -0.23
SD 1.07 0.95 1.01
CV 1.40 0.95 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
030.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%—46.67%
13.33%23.33%—10.00%——36.67%
26.67%3.33%————10.00%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%40.00%3.33%13.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.00 -0.23
SD 0.90 1.14 1.43
CV 1.17 1.14 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%10.00%——3.33%—33.33%
120.00%20.00%6.67%—3.33%—50.00%
23.33%6.67%—3.33%——13.33%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total46.67%36.67%6.67%3.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 0.87 +0.00
SD 0.78 1.14 1.34
CV 0.90 1.31 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%30.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%—63.33%
13.33%16.67%3.33%3.33%——26.67%
23.33%——3.33%—3.33%10.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%46.67%10.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.47 1.30 -0.83
SD 0.68 1.37 1.29
CV 1.46 1.05 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%————26.67%
110.00%20.00%6.67%———36.67%
26.67%10.00%10.00%———26.67%
3———3.33%——3.33%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+———————
Total43.33%36.67%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 0.80 +0.47
SD 1.11 0.85 1.22
CV 0.88 1.06 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%————26.67%
120.00%16.67%10.00%———46.67%
2—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
36.67%3.33%—3.33%——13.33%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total46.67%33.33%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.77 +0.57
SD 1.40 0.86 1.30
CV 1.05 1.12 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%6.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%—46.67%
13.33%13.33%3.33%———20.00%
23.33%6.67%10.00%3.33%—3.33%26.67%
3————3.33%—3.33%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total30.00%30.00%23.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.40 -0.43
SD 1.10 1.35 1.45
CV 1.14 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%—10.00%3.33%3.33%—36.67%
16.67%10.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%—33.33%
23.33%3.33%6.67%———13.33%
3—10.00%————10.00%
43.33%——3.33%——6.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%23.33%26.67%10.00%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.33 -0.17
SD 1.23 1.24 1.74
CV 1.06 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
030.00%6.67%10.00%———46.67%
113.33%13.33%6.67%———33.33%
23.33%10.00%3.33%———16.67%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%30.00%20.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 0.70 +0.07
SD 0.86 0.79 1.11
CV 1.12 1.13 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%—————23.33%
110.00%33.33%————43.33%
220.00%3.33%6.67%———30.00%
3—3.33%————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total53.33%40.00%6.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 0.53 +0.60
SD 0.82 0.63 0.86
CV 0.72 1.18 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%10.00%3.33%——46.67%
16.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%—30.00%
26.67%10.00%3.33%———20.00%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%40.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.80 1.07 -0.27
SD 0.89 1.05 1.44
CV 1.11 0.98 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%6.67%—6.67%——36.67%
116.67%13.33%3.33%———33.33%
23.33%—6.67%———10.00%
36.67%6.67%—3.33%——16.67%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total53.33%26.67%10.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.77 +0.40
SD 1.21 1.01 1.52
CV 1.03 1.31 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AC Milan 44 36.34 +7.66
2 Perugia 41 33.61 +7.39
3 Napoli 32 29.17 +2.83
4 Fiorentina 32 29.64 +2.36
5 Inter Milan 36 34.75 +1.25

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hellas Verona 15 23.80 -8.80
2 Lanerossi Vicenza 24 29.21 -5.21
3 Avellino 26 29.04 -3.04
4 Bologna 24 26.18 -2.18
5 Atalanta 24 25.49 -1.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AC Milan 5 Dec 10 – Jan 21 1 in 71
2 Fiorentina 3 Mar 25 – Apr 8 1 in 70
3 Atalanta 2 Apr 14 – Apr 22 1 in 40
4 Napoli 3 Apr 22 – May 6 1 in 38
5 Perugia 2 Oct 15 – Oct 22 1 in 31

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inter Milan 3 Apr 29 – May 13 1 in 1,080
2 Hellas Verona 7 Jan 14 – Mar 4 1 in 505
3 Lanerossi Vicenza 4 Apr 1 – Apr 22 1 in 191
4 Fiorentina 3 Jan 7 – Jan 21 1 in 61
5 Roma 3 Mar 4 – Mar 18 1 in 56

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Perugia 30 Oct 1 – May 13 1 in 2,209
2 Inter Milan 20 Nov 19 – Apr 22 1 in 86
3 Catanzaro 9 Oct 15 – Dec 10 1 in 33
4 Bologna 7 Mar 4 – Apr 14 1 in 17
5 Lanerossi Vicenza 8 Nov 26 – Jan 28 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bologna 19 Oct 22 – Mar 18 1 in 79
2 Fiorentina 11 Dec 17 – Mar 18 1 in 23
3 Catanzaro 9 Mar 11 – May 6 1 in 19
4 Atalanta 13 Oct 1 – Jan 7 1 in 16
5 AC Milan 5 Mar 11 – Apr 8 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
AC Milan26.66%21.76%16.76%12.65%8.56%4.95%3.35%1.97%1.37%0.80%0.55%0.29%0.17%0.09%0.07%—
Perugia7.97%11.74%14.29%15.03%13.64%10.99%8.14%5.76%4.10%2.84%2.12%1.35%1.03%0.67%0.26%0.07%
Juventus30.93%22.53%16.21%11.77%7.46%4.64%2.59%1.58%0.97%0.57%0.41%0.19%0.09%0.03%0.02%0.01%
Inter Milan12.73%15.66%16.58%15.84%12.06%9.38%6.04%3.86%2.76%2.06%1.16%0.75%0.62%0.28%0.15%0.07%
Torino18.34%18.60%17.86%14.64%11.53%6.68%4.63%2.88%1.84%1.22%0.82%0.44%0.33%0.08%0.06%0.05%
Napoli0.51%1.46%2.72%4.64%6.49%9.50%10.50%10.78%9.98%9.50%8.35%7.82%6.63%5.02%3.84%2.26%
Fiorentina0.64%2.07%3.75%5.33%8.02%9.78%10.69%10.49%9.89%8.86%8.00%7.07%5.74%4.41%3.43%1.83%
Lazio Roma0.67%1.42%2.70%4.61%7.10%9.45%9.51%10.05%9.66%9.84%8.51%7.64%6.65%5.51%4.19%2.49%
Catanzaro0.12%0.53%0.85%1.68%2.96%4.22%5.69%7.59%7.95%9.21%10.49%10.68%10.01%10.54%9.85%7.63%
Ascoli0.14%0.63%1.15%2.34%3.53%5.22%6.50%7.94%9.05%9.19%9.47%9.66%9.97%9.90%8.54%6.77%
Avellino0.55%1.49%2.68%4.07%6.03%8.01%9.30%9.46%10.48%9.75%8.87%8.04%7.48%6.25%4.60%2.94%
Roma0.11%0.19%0.65%1.26%2.24%3.15%4.76%5.98%6.96%8.40%9.35%10.43%11.21%12.34%11.87%11.10%
Bologna0.07%0.22%0.55%0.90%2.00%3.33%4.18%5.52%7.24%7.77%9.43%10.54%12.06%12.21%13.16%10.82%
Lanerossi Vicenza0.53%1.45%2.83%4.31%6.51%7.66%9.55%9.82%9.39%9.86%8.94%8.36%7.05%6.25%4.79%2.70%
Atalanta0.02%0.19%0.30%0.68%1.40%2.19%2.99%4.35%5.59%6.25%8.37%9.90%11.74%13.50%15.76%16.77%
Hellas Verona0.01%0.06%0.12%0.25%0.47%0.85%1.58%1.97%2.77%3.88%5.16%6.84%9.22%12.92%19.41%34.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.25%
Clear Edge
38.33%44.58%17.08%
Elo Value
Home Edge
212 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
074.97600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
AC Milan, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.10/gm
Photo Finish
00.080.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.98 * Some Luck: 2.98 to 4.46 * Lucky: 4.46 to 5.95 * Wild Swing: 5.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.12 * Close: 2.12 to 3.18 * Off: 3.18 to 4.24 * Way Off: 4.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.51 * A Surprise: 1.51 to 2.42 * Several Surprises: 2.42 to 3.32 * Many Surprises: 3.32 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.97 points
Some Luck
03.729
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.62
Pinpoint
02.656
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.61%
AC Milan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.01%
Hellas Verona
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 3
As Expected
01.53

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.36
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
67%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
77%
Very Frequent
0%73%100%
Blowouts
Expected 7%
8%
Occasional
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.47
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.14
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1160.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Juventus 99.94% 0.06%
AC Milan 99.84% 0.16%
Torino 99.81% 0.19%
Inter Milan 99.50% 0.50%
Perugia 99.00% 1.00%
Fiorentina 90.33% 9.67%
Napoli 88.88% 11.12%
Lazio Roma 87.81% 12.19%
Lanerossi Vicenza 86.26% 13.74%
Avellino 86.21% 13.79%
Ascoli 74.79% 25.21%
Catanzaro 71.98% 28.02%
Roma 64.69% 35.31%
Bologna 63.81% 36.19%
Atalanta 53.97% 46.03%
Hellas Verona 33.18% 66.82%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1978-10-01 Avellino W 1-0 1682 1677 40.6% 46.3% 13.1% +6.5 2
1978-10-01 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1677 1682 13.1% 46.3% 40.6% -6.5 0
1978-10-01 Inter Milan L 0-1 1627 1697 32.1% 47.3% 20.7% -10.8 0
1978-10-01 @ Bologna W 1-0 1697 1627 20.7% 47.3% 32.1% +10.8 2
1978-10-01 Atalanta D 0-0 1608 1635 37.2% 46.9% 15.9% -1.3 1
1978-10-01 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1635 1608 15.9% 46.9% 37.2% +1.3 1
1978-10-01 Roma D 1-1 1630 1638 39.2% 46.6% 14.2% -1.5 1
1978-10-01 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1638 1630 14.2% 46.6% 39.2% +1.5 1
1978-10-01 Juventus D 2-2 1646 1767 25.3% 46.9% 27.8% +0.1 1
1978-10-01 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1767 1646 27.8% 46.9% 25.3% -0.1 1
1978-10-01 Ascoli W 2-1 1647 1614 43.5% 45.5% 11.0% +5.5 2
1978-10-01 @ Napoli L 1-2 1614 1647 11.0% 45.5% 43.5% -5.5 0
1978-10-01 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1656 1688 36.7% 47.0% 16.3% +14.0 2
1978-10-01 @ Perugia L 0-2 1688 1656 16.3% 47.0% 36.7% -14.0 0
1978-10-01 Fiorentina D 1-1 1739 1653 48.2% 43.5% 8.2% -2.6 1
1978-10-01 @ Torino D 1-1 1653 1739 8.2% 43.5% 48.2% +2.6 1
1978-10-08 Bologna D 2-2 1608 1616 39.4% 46.6% 14.1% -1.1 1
1978-10-08 @ Ascoli D 2-2 1616 1608 14.1% 46.6% 39.4% +1.1 1
1978-10-08 Torino L 0-1 1636 1736 28.2% 47.2% 24.6% -10.0 1
1978-10-08 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1736 1636 24.6% 47.2% 28.2% +10.0 3
1978-10-08 Lazio Roma L 1-3 1671 1646 42.7% 45.8% 11.6% -21.7 0
1978-10-08 @ Avellino W 3-1 1646 1671 11.6% 45.8% 42.7% +21.7 3
1978-10-08 Napoli W 2-1 1656 1652 40.5% 46.3% 13.1% +6.2 3
1978-10-08 @ Fiorentina L 1-2 1652 1656 13.1% 46.3% 40.5% -6.2 2
1978-10-08 Perugia D 1-1 1708 1670 43.9% 45.4% 10.7% -2.0 3
1978-10-08 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1670 1708 10.7% 45.4% 43.9% +2.0 3
1978-10-08 Hellas Verona W 6-2 1767 1628 52.6% 40.9% 6.5% +9.3 3
1978-10-08 @ Juventus L 2-6 1628 1767 6.5% 40.9% 52.6% -9.3 1
1978-10-08 AC Milan L 0-3 1640 1688 34.8% 47.2% 18.1% -31.2 1
1978-10-08 @ Roma W 3-0 1688 1640 18.1% 47.2% 34.8% +31.2 4
1978-10-08 Catanzaro W 2-0 1674 1606 46.6% 44.3% 9.1% +9.5 2
1978-10-08 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-2 1606 1674 9.1% 44.3% 46.6% -9.5 1
1978-10-15 Ascoli D 0-0 1719 1607 50.5% 42.3% 7.2% -3.2 5
1978-10-15 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1607 1719 7.2% 42.3% 50.5% +3.2 2
1978-10-15 Lanerossi Vicenza W 5-2 1617 1683 32.6% 47.3% 20.2% +16.7 3
1978-10-15 @ Bologna L 2-5 1683 1617 20.2% 47.3% 32.6% -16.7 2
1978-10-15 Juventus D 0-0 1597 1776 18.5% 45.6% 35.8% +1.0 2
1978-10-15 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1776 1597 35.8% 45.6% 18.5% -1.0 4
1978-10-15 Inter Milan D 0-0 1619 1706 29.9% 47.2% 22.8% -0.4 2
1978-10-15 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1706 1619 22.8% 47.2% 29.9% +0.4 4
1978-10-15 Atalanta D 1-1 1667 1626 44.2% 45.3% 10.5% -2.1 4
1978-10-15 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1626 1667 10.5% 45.3% 44.2% +2.1 2
1978-10-15 Roma W 1-0 1646 1609 43.9% 45.4% 10.7% +5.7 4
1978-10-15 @ Napoli L 0-1 1609 1646 10.7% 45.4% 43.9% -5.7 1
1978-10-15 Fiorentina W 1-0 1672 1662 41.2% 46.2% 12.6% +6.4 5
1978-10-15 @ Perugia L 0-1 1662 1672 12.6% 46.2% 41.2% -6.4 3
1978-10-15 Avellino W 1-0 1746 1649 49.2% 43.0% 7.8% +4.4 5
1978-10-15 @ Torino L 0-1 1649 1746 7.8% 43.0% 49.2% -4.4 0
1978-10-22 Torino W 3-0 1611 1751 22.9% 46.6% 30.5% +28.5 4
1978-10-22 @ Ascoli L 0-3 1751 1611 30.5% 46.6% 22.9% -28.5 5
1978-10-22 AC Milan L 1-3 1628 1716 29.8% 47.2% 23.0% -16.8 2
1978-10-22 @ Atalanta W 3-1 1716 1628 23.0% 47.2% 29.8% +16.8 7
1978-10-22 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1645 1618 42.8% 45.7% 11.5% +11.3 2
1978-10-22 @ Avellino L 0-2 1618 1645 11.5% 45.7% 42.8% -11.3 2
1978-10-22 Lazio Roma W 3-0 1656 1665 39.1% 46.6% 14.2% +18.8 5
1978-10-22 @ Fiorentina L 0-3 1665 1656 14.2% 46.6% 39.1% -18.8 4
1978-10-22 Catanzaro D 0-0 1706 1598 50.1% 42.5% 7.4% -3.1 5
1978-10-22 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1598 1706 7.4% 42.5% 50.1% +3.1 3
1978-10-22 Perugia L 1-2 1775 1679 49.2% 43.0% 7.8% -14.0 4
1978-10-22 @ Juventus W 2-1 1679 1775 7.8% 43.0% 49.2% +14.0 7
1978-10-22 Bologna W 2-0 1603 1634 36.8% 47.0% 16.2% +14.0 3
1978-10-22 @ Roma L 0-2 1634 1603 16.2% 47.0% 36.8% -14.0 3
1978-10-22 Napoli D 0-0 1666 1652 41.6% 46.1% 12.3% -1.9 3
1978-10-22 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1652 1666 12.3% 46.1% 41.6% +2.0 5
1978-10-29 Fiorentina W 4-1 1733 1674 45.8% 44.6% 9.5% +12.1 9
1978-10-29 @ AC Milan L 1-4 1674 1733 9.5% 44.6% 45.8% -12.1 5
1978-10-29 Juventus D 0-0 1620 1761 22.7% 46.6% 30.7% +0.5 4
1978-10-29 @ Bologna D 0-0 1761 1620 30.7% 46.6% 22.7% -0.5 5
1978-10-29 Roma W 1-0 1601 1617 38.5% 46.7% 14.8% +7.0 5
1978-10-29 @ Catanzaro L 0-1 1617 1601 14.8% 46.7% 38.5% -7.0 3
1978-10-29 Ascoli L 2-3 1607 1639 36.7% 47.0% 16.3% -10.6 2
1978-10-29 @ Hellas Verona W 3-2 1639 1607 16.3% 47.0% 36.7% +10.6 6
1978-10-29 Lanerossi Vicenza W 4-3 1647 1665 38.2% 46.8% 15.0% +6.2 6
1978-10-29 @ Lazio Roma L 3-4 1665 1647 15.0% 46.8% 38.2% -6.2 3
1978-10-29 Atalanta W 2-0 1654 1611 44.4% 45.2% 10.4% +10.6 7
1978-10-29 @ Napoli L 0-2 1611 1654 10.4% 45.2% 44.4% -10.6 2
1978-10-29 Avellino D 0-0 1693 1656 43.8% 45.4% 10.8% -2.3 8
1978-10-29 @ Perugia D 0-0 1656 1693 10.8% 45.4% 43.8% +2.2 3
1978-10-29 Inter Milan D 3-3 1722 1703 42.1% 45.9% 11.9% -1.1 6
1978-10-29 @ Torino D 3-3 1703 1722 11.9% 45.9% 42.1% +1.1 6
1978-11-05 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1650 1653 39.8% 46.5% 13.7% -1.7 7
1978-11-05 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1653 1650 13.7% 46.5% 39.8% +1.7 7
1978-11-05 Perugia L 0-2 1601 1690 29.6% 47.2% 23.2% -19.4 2
1978-11-05 @ Atalanta W 2-0 1690 1601 23.2% 47.2% 29.6% +19.4 10
1978-11-05 Catanzaro D 0-0 1658 1608 45.1% 45.0% 10.0% -2.4 4
1978-11-05 @ Avellino D 0-0 1608 1658 10.0% 45.0% 45.1% +2.4 6
1978-11-05 Bologna W 1-0 1662 1620 44.3% 45.2% 10.4% +5.6 7
1978-11-05 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1620 1662 10.4% 45.2% 44.3% -5.6 4
1978-11-05 Napoli W 2-0 1704 1664 44.1% 45.3% 10.6% +10.7 8
1978-11-05 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1664 1704 10.6% 45.3% 44.1% -10.7 7
1978-11-05 AC Milan W 1-0 1761 1745 41.7% 46.0% 12.2% +6.2 7
1978-11-05 @ Juventus L 0-1 1745 1761 12.2% 46.0% 41.7% -6.2 9
1978-11-05 Torino L 0-2 1610 1721 26.7% 47.1% 26.3% -18.2 3
1978-11-05 @ Roma W 2-0 1721 1610 26.3% 47.1% 26.7% +18.2 8
1978-11-05 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1658 1597 46.1% 44.5% 9.4% -2.6 4
1978-11-05 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1597 1658 9.4% 44.5% 46.1% +2.6 3
1978-11-12 Inter Milan W 1-0 1739 1715 42.6% 45.8% 11.6% +6.0 11
1978-11-12 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1715 1739 11.6% 45.8% 42.6% -6.0 8
1978-11-12 Avellino D 0-0 1615 1656 35.6% 47.1% 17.3% -1.1 5
1978-11-12 @ Bologna D 0-0 1656 1615 17.3% 47.1% 35.6% +1.1 5
1978-11-12 Fiorentina D 0-0 1611 1668 33.7% 47.2% 19.1% -0.9 7
1978-11-12 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1668 1611 19.1% 47.2% 33.7% +0.9 8
1978-11-12 Atalanta D 1-1 1599 1582 42.0% 46.0% 12.1% -1.8 4
1978-11-12 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1582 1599 12.1% 46.0% 42.0% +1.8 3
1978-11-12 Roma D 0-0 1654 1592 46.2% 44.5% 9.3% -2.6 8
1978-11-12 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1592 1654 9.3% 44.5% 46.2% +2.6 4
1978-11-12 Juventus D 0-0 1654 1767 26.4% 47.0% 26.6% +0.0 8
1978-11-12 @ Napoli D 0-0 1767 1654 26.6% 47.0% 26.4% -0.0 8
1978-11-12 Ascoli W 2-0 1710 1648 46.1% 44.5% 9.4% +9.8 12
1978-11-12 @ Perugia L 0-2 1648 1710 9.4% 44.5% 46.1% -9.8 7
1978-11-12 Lanerossi Vicenza W 4-0 1739 1656 48.0% 43.6% 8.3% +16.9 10
1978-11-12 @ Torino L 0-4 1656 1739 8.3% 43.6% 48.0% -16.9 4
1978-11-19 Catanzaro D 1-1 1638 1610 43.0% 45.7% 11.3% -1.9 8
1978-11-19 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1610 1638 11.3% 45.7% 43.0% +1.9 8
1978-11-19 Bologna D 0-0 1583 1614 36.9% 47.0% 16.2% -1.3 4
1978-11-19 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1614 1583 16.2% 47.0% 36.9% +1.3 6
1978-11-19 Napoli D 1-1 1657 1654 40.5% 46.4% 13.2% -1.6 6
1978-11-19 @ Avellino D 1-1 1654 1657 13.2% 46.4% 40.5% +1.6 9
1978-11-19 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1669 1597 47.0% 44.1% 8.9% +5.0 10
1978-11-19 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1597 1669 8.9% 44.1% 47.0% -5.0 4
1978-11-19 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1709 1652 45.7% 44.7% 9.6% +18.9 10
1978-11-19 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1652 1709 9.6% 44.7% 45.7% -18.9 8
1978-11-19 Torino D 1-1 1767 1756 41.3% 46.2% 12.6% -1.7 9
1978-11-19 @ Juventus D 1-1 1756 1767 12.6% 46.2% 41.3% +1.7 11
1978-11-19 Perugia D 0-0 1594 1719 24.8% 46.9% 28.4% +0.2 5
1978-11-19 @ Roma D 0-0 1719 1594 28.4% 46.9% 24.8% -0.2 13
1978-11-19 AC Milan L 2-3 1639 1745 27.4% 47.1% 25.5% -8.8 4
1978-11-19 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-2 1745 1639 25.5% 47.1% 27.4% +8.8 13
1978-11-26 Fiorentina D 1-1 1655 1674 38.2% 46.8% 15.0% -1.3 7
1978-11-26 @ Avellino D 1-1 1674 1655 15.0% 46.8% 38.2% +1.3 11
1978-11-26 Catanzaro D 1-1 1615 1612 40.5% 46.3% 13.2% -1.6 7
1978-11-26 @ Bologna D 1-1 1612 1615 13.2% 46.3% 40.5% +1.6 9
1978-11-26 Atalanta D 2-2 1728 1582 53.2% 40.5% 6.3% -2.3 11
1978-11-26 @ Inter Milan D 2-2 1582 1728 6.3% 40.5% 53.2% +2.3 5
1978-11-26 Ascoli W 1-0 1765 1636 51.8% 41.4% 6.7% +3.9 11
1978-11-26 @ Juventus L 0-1 1636 1765 6.7% 41.4% 51.8% -3.8 8
1978-11-26 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1633 1592 44.2% 45.3% 10.5% +5.6 10
1978-11-26 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1592 1633 10.5% 45.3% 44.2% -5.7 4
1978-11-26 AC Milan D 1-1 1655 1754 28.4% 47.2% 24.4% -0.2 10
1978-11-26 @ Napoli D 1-1 1754 1655 24.4% 47.2% 28.4% +0.2 14
1978-11-26 Torino D 0-0 1719 1758 35.9% 47.1% 17.0% -1.2 14
1978-11-26 @ Perugia D 0-0 1758 1719 17.0% 47.1% 35.9% +1.2 12
1978-11-26 Roma W 1-0 1630 1594 43.7% 45.4% 10.8% +5.8 6
1978-11-26 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1594 1630 10.8% 45.4% 43.7% -5.8 5
1978-12-03 Perugia D 1-1 1754 1718 43.7% 45.4% 10.8% -2.0 15
1978-12-03 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1718 1754 10.8% 45.4% 43.7% +2.0 15
1978-12-03 Inter Milan L 1-2 1632 1725 29.1% 47.2% 23.6% -9.6 8
1978-12-03 @ Ascoli W 2-1 1725 1632 23.6% 47.2% 29.1% +9.6 13
1978-12-03 Juventus L 0-1 1584 1769 18.0% 45.5% 36.5% -7.7 5
1978-12-03 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1769 1584 36.5% 45.5% 18.0% +7.7 13
1978-12-03 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1613 1639 37.4% 46.9% 15.7% +11.9 11
1978-12-03 @ Catanzaro L 1-3 1639 1613 15.7% 46.9% 37.4% -11.9 10
1978-12-03 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1675 1636 44.0% 45.3% 10.6% -2.3 12
1978-12-03 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1636 1675 10.6% 45.3% 44.0% +2.3 7
1978-12-03 Bologna W 1-0 1587 1613 37.3% 46.9% 15.8% +7.3 6
1978-12-03 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1613 1587 15.8% 46.9% 37.3% -7.3 7
1978-12-03 Avellino W 2-1 1589 1654 32.7% 47.2% 20.1% +7.9 7
1978-12-03 @ Roma L 1-2 1654 1589 20.1% 47.2% 32.7% -7.9 7
1978-12-03 Napoli D 0-0 1759 1655 49.8% 42.7% 7.5% -3.1 13
1978-12-03 @ Torino D 0-0 1655 1759 7.5% 42.7% 49.8% +3.1 11
1978-12-10 Torino W 1-0 1752 1756 39.7% 46.5% 13.8% +6.7 17
1978-12-10 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1756 1752 13.8% 46.5% 39.7% -6.7 13
1978-12-10 Atalanta W 1-0 1623 1577 44.7% 45.1% 10.2% +5.5 10
1978-12-10 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1577 1623 10.2% 45.1% 44.7% -5.5 5
1978-12-10 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1625 1594 43.3% 45.6% 11.2% -1.9 12
1978-12-10 @ Catanzaro D 1-1 1594 1625 11.2% 45.6% 43.3% +1.9 7
1978-12-10 Roma W 2-0 1673 1596 47.4% 43.9% 8.7% +9.2 14
1978-12-10 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1596 1673 8.7% 43.9% 47.4% -9.2 7
1978-12-10 Inter Milan D 1-1 1777 1735 44.3% 45.2% 10.5% -2.1 14
1978-12-10 @ Juventus D 1-1 1735 1777 10.5% 45.2% 44.3% +2.1 14
1978-12-10 Bologna W 1-0 1627 1606 42.3% 45.9% 11.8% +6.1 12
1978-12-10 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1606 1627 11.8% 45.9% 42.3% -6.1 7
1978-12-10 Perugia D 1-1 1658 1720 33.1% 47.2% 19.6% -0.7 12
1978-12-10 @ Napoli D 1-1 1720 1658 19.6% 47.2% 33.1% +0.7 16
1978-12-10 Avellino W 2-1 1638 1646 39.3% 46.6% 14.1% +6.4 9
1978-12-10 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1646 1638 14.1% 46.6% 39.3% -6.4 7
1978-12-17 Fiorentina D 0-0 1571 1682 26.7% 47.1% 26.2% -0.0 6
1978-12-17 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1682 1571 26.2% 47.1% 26.7% +0.0 15
1978-12-17 Ascoli W 3-1 1640 1628 41.3% 46.2% 12.5% +10.4 9
1978-12-17 @ Avellino L 1-3 1628 1640 12.5% 46.2% 41.3% -10.4 10
1978-12-17 Napoli D 1-1 1600 1658 33.6% 47.2% 19.1% -0.8 8
1978-12-17 @ Bologna D 1-1 1658 1600 19.1% 47.2% 33.6% +0.8 13
1978-12-17 AC Milan L 1-3 1596 1759 20.2% 46.1% 33.6% -13.5 7
1978-12-17 @ Hellas Verona W 3-1 1759 1596 33.6% 46.1% 20.2% +13.5 19
1978-12-17 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1737 1645 48.8% 43.2% 8.0% -3.0 15
1978-12-17 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1645 1737 8.0% 43.2% 48.8% +3.0 10
1978-12-17 Catanzaro W 1-0 1721 1623 49.3% 43.0% 7.8% +4.4 18
1978-12-17 @ Perugia L 0-1 1623 1721 7.8% 43.0% 49.3% -4.4 12
1978-12-17 Juventus W 1-0 1587 1775 17.7% 45.4% 36.9% +11.7 9
1978-12-17 @ Roma L 0-1 1775 1587 36.9% 45.4% 17.7% -11.7 14
1978-12-17 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1749 1633 50.8% 42.1% 7.1% -2.1 14
1978-12-17 @ Torino D 2-2 1633 1749 7.1% 42.1% 50.8% +2.1 13
1979-01-07 Catanzaro W 4-0 1772 1619 53.8% 40.1% 6.1% +12.3 21
1979-01-07 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1619 1772 6.1% 40.1% 53.8% -12.3 12
1979-01-07 Atalanta D 0-0 1650 1571 47.6% 43.8% 8.5% -2.8 10
1979-01-07 @ Avellino D 0-0 1571 1650 8.5% 43.8% 47.6% +2.8 7
1979-01-07 Juventus L 0-1 1682 1763 30.7% 47.3% 22.0% -10.5 15
1979-01-07 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1763 1682 22.0% 47.3% 30.7% +10.5 16
1979-01-07 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1658 1635 42.5% 45.8% 11.7% -24.9 13
1979-01-07 @ Napoli W 2-0 1635 1658 11.7% 45.8% 42.5% +24.9 15
1979-01-07 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1725 1583 53.0% 40.7% 6.3% -3.1 19
1979-01-07 @ Perugia D 1-1 1583 1725 6.3% 40.7% 53.0% +3.1 8
1979-01-07 Inter Milan D 1-1 1599 1734 23.5% 46.7% 29.8% +0.3 10
1979-01-07 @ Roma D 1-1 1734 1599 29.8% 46.7% 23.5% -0.3 16
1979-01-07 Bologna W 3-1 1747 1599 53.4% 40.4% 6.2% +5.7 16
1979-01-07 @ Torino L 1-3 1599 1747 6.2% 40.4% 53.4% -5.8 8
1979-01-07 Ascoli D 1-1 1648 1618 43.1% 45.6% 11.2% -1.9 11
1979-01-07 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1618 1648 11.2% 45.6% 43.1% +1.9 11
1979-01-14 Fiorentina W 2-1 1620 1672 34.4% 47.2% 18.4% +7.5 13
1979-01-14 @ Ascoli L 1-2 1672 1620 18.4% 47.2% 34.4% -7.5 15
1979-01-14 Roma W 2-0 1574 1599 37.4% 46.9% 15.7% +13.7 9
1979-01-14 @ Atalanta L 0-2 1599 1574 15.7% 46.9% 37.4% -13.7 10
1979-01-14 AC Milan L 0-1 1593 1784 17.4% 45.3% 37.4% -7.5 8
1979-01-14 @ Bologna W 1-0 1784 1593 37.4% 45.3% 17.4% +7.5 23
1979-01-14 Napoli D 0-0 1606 1633 37.2% 46.9% 15.8% -1.3 13
1979-01-14 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1633 1606 15.8% 46.9% 37.2% +1.4 14
1979-01-14 Torino L 0-1 1586 1753 19.8% 46.0% 34.2% -8.1 8
1979-01-14 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1753 1586 34.2% 46.0% 19.8% +8.1 18
1979-01-14 Avellino W 2-0 1734 1647 48.3% 43.5% 8.2% +8.8 18
1979-01-14 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1647 1734 8.2% 43.5% 48.3% -8.8 10
1979-01-14 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1773 1646 51.8% 41.5% 6.8% -14.5 16
1979-01-14 @ Juventus W 2-1 1646 1773 6.8% 41.5% 51.8% +14.5 13
1979-01-14 Perugia D 0-0 1660 1722 33.1% 47.2% 19.7% -0.8 16
1979-01-14 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1722 1660 19.7% 47.2% 33.1% +0.8 20
1979-01-21 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1792 1659 52.2% 41.2% 6.6% +7.1 25
1979-01-21 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1659 1792 6.6% 41.2% 52.2% -7.1 16
1979-01-21 Juventus D 0-0 1638 1759 25.4% 46.9% 27.7% +0.1 11
1979-01-21 @ Avellino D 0-0 1759 1638 27.7% 46.9% 25.4% -0.1 17
1979-01-21 Inter Milan L 1-2 1664 1742 31.0% 47.3% 21.7% -10.0 15
1979-01-21 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1742 1664 21.7% 47.3% 31.0% +10.0 20
1979-01-21 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1635 1578 45.7% 44.7% 9.6% +5.3 16
1979-01-21 @ Napoli L 0-1 1578 1635 9.6% 44.7% 45.7% -5.3 8
1979-01-21 Bologna W 3-1 1723 1586 52.5% 41.0% 6.5% +6.0 22
1979-01-21 @ Perugia L 1-3 1586 1723 6.5% 41.0% 52.5% -6.0 8
1979-01-21 Ascoli W 1-0 1586 1627 35.5% 47.1% 17.4% +7.7 12
1979-01-21 @ Roma L 0-1 1627 1586 17.4% 47.1% 35.5% -7.7 13
1979-01-21 Catanzaro W 3-0 1761 1605 54.0% 40.0% 6.0% +9.3 20
1979-01-21 @ Torino L 0-3 1605 1761 6.0% 40.0% 54.0% -9.3 13
1979-01-21 Atalanta D 1-1 1660 1588 47.1% 44.1% 8.8% -2.4 14
1979-01-21 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1588 1660 8.8% 44.1% 47.1% +2.4 10
1979-01-28 Napoli D 0-0 1620 1640 38.0% 46.8% 15.2% -1.4 14
1979-01-28 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1640 1620 15.2% 46.8% 38.0% +1.4 17
1979-01-28 Catanzaro L 0-2 1590 1596 39.6% 46.5% 13.9% -23.6 10
1979-01-28 @ Atalanta W 2-0 1596 1590 13.9% 46.5% 39.6% +23.6 15
1979-01-28 AC Milan W 1-0 1638 1799 20.5% 46.2% 33.4% +11.0 13
1979-01-28 @ Avellino L 0-1 1799 1638 33.4% 46.2% 20.5% -11.0 25
1979-01-28 Torino D 0-0 1654 1770 26.0% 47.0% 27.0% +0.1 16
1979-01-28 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1770 1654 27.0% 47.0% 26.0% -0.1 21
1979-01-28 Bologna D 0-0 1752 1580 55.4% 39.0% 5.6% -3.8 21
1979-01-28 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1580 1752 5.6% 39.0% 55.4% +3.8 9
1979-01-28 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1759 1652 50.0% 42.5% 7.4% +4.0 19
1979-01-28 @ Juventus L 1-2 1652 1759 7.4% 42.5% 50.0% -4.0 16
1979-01-28 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1593 1572 42.3% 45.9% 11.8% +11.5 14
1979-01-28 @ Roma L 0-2 1572 1593 11.8% 45.9% 42.3% -11.5 8
1979-01-28 Perugia D 1-1 1658 1729 31.9% 47.3% 20.8% -0.6 15
1979-01-28 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1729 1658 20.8% 47.3% 31.9% +0.6 23
1979-02-04 Roma W 1-0 1788 1605 56.2% 38.4% 5.4% +3.0 27
1979-02-04 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1605 1788 5.4% 38.4% 56.2% -3.0 14
1979-02-04 Ascoli D 0-0 1584 1618 36.4% 47.0% 16.6% -1.2 10
1979-02-04 @ Bologna D 0-0 1618 1584 16.6% 47.0% 36.4% +1.2 15
1979-02-04 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1619 1657 36.0% 47.1% 16.9% +14.3 17
1979-02-04 @ Catanzaro L 0-2 1657 1619 16.9% 47.1% 36.0% -14.3 15
1979-02-04 Juventus L 0-3 1561 1763 16.4% 44.9% 38.8% -19.7 8
1979-02-04 @ Hellas Verona W 3-0 1763 1561 38.8% 44.9% 16.4% +19.7 21
1979-02-04 Avellino D 0-0 1648 1649 40.0% 46.5% 13.6% -1.7 17
1979-02-04 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1649 1648 13.6% 46.5% 40.0% +1.7 14
1979-02-04 Fiorentina D 0-0 1641 1654 38.8% 46.7% 14.5% -1.6 18
1979-02-04 @ Napoli D 0-0 1654 1641 14.5% 46.7% 38.8% +1.6 17
1979-02-04 Inter Milan D 2-2 1730 1749 38.1% 46.8% 15.1% -1.0 24
1979-02-04 @ Perugia D 2-2 1749 1730 15.1% 46.8% 38.1% +1.0 22
1979-02-04 Atalanta W 3-0 1770 1566 57.9% 37.1% 5.0% +7.4 23
1979-02-04 @ Torino L 0-3 1566 1770 5.0% 37.1% 57.9% -7.4 10
1979-02-11 AC Milan L 0-1 1619 1791 19.3% 45.9% 34.8% -8.0 15
1979-02-11 @ Ascoli W 1-0 1791 1619 34.8% 45.9% 19.3% +8.0 29
1979-02-11 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1559 1646 29.9% 47.2% 22.9% -0.4 11
1979-02-11 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1646 1559 22.9% 47.2% 29.9% +0.4 18
1979-02-11 Torino D 1-1 1651 1778 24.6% 46.9% 28.5% +0.2 15
1979-02-11 @ Avellino D 1-1 1778 1651 28.5% 46.9% 24.6% -0.2 24
1979-02-11 Perugia D 1-1 1656 1729 31.7% 47.3% 21.0% -0.6 18
1979-02-11 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1729 1656 21.0% 47.3% 31.7% +0.6 25
1979-02-11 Hellas Verona W 4-0 1750 1541 58.2% 36.8% 5.0% +9.4 24
1979-02-11 @ Inter Milan L 0-4 1541 1750 5.0% 36.8% 58.2% -9.4 8
1979-02-11 Catanzaro W 3-1 1782 1634 53.5% 40.4% 6.2% +5.7 23
1979-02-11 @ Juventus L 1-3 1634 1782 6.2% 40.4% 53.5% -5.7 17
1979-02-11 Napoli D 0-0 1602 1640 36.0% 47.1% 17.0% -1.2 15
1979-02-11 @ Roma D 0-0 1640 1602 17.0% 47.1% 36.0% +1.2 19
1979-02-11 Bologna D 2-2 1643 1582 46.0% 44.6% 9.4% -1.7 16
1979-02-11 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1582 1643 9.4% 44.6% 46.0% +1.7 11
1979-02-18 Atalanta D 1-1 1799 1559 60.8% 34.8% 4.5% -3.8 30
1979-02-18 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1559 1799 4.5% 34.8% 60.8% +3.8 12
1979-02-18 Roma L 1-2 1584 1601 38.4% 46.8% 14.9% -11.5 11
1979-02-18 @ Bologna W 2-1 1601 1584 14.9% 46.8% 38.4% +11.5 17
1979-02-18 Inter Milan D 1-1 1628 1759 24.0% 46.8% 29.2% +0.3 18
1979-02-18 @ Catanzaro D 1-1 1759 1628 29.2% 46.8% 24.0% -0.3 25
1979-02-18 Avellino L 0-1 1532 1651 25.5% 47.0% 27.6% -9.4 8
1979-02-18 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1651 1532 27.6% 47.0% 25.5% +9.4 17
1979-02-18 Fiorentina W 4-0 1647 1655 39.3% 46.6% 14.1% +24.5 20
1979-02-18 @ Lazio Roma L 0-4 1655 1647 14.1% 46.6% 39.3% -24.5 18
1979-02-18 Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1641 1641 40.2% 46.4% 13.4% -1.2 20
1979-02-18 @ Napoli D 2-2 1641 1641 13.4% 46.4% 40.2% +1.2 17
1979-02-18 Juventus D 0-0 1729 1788 33.5% 47.2% 19.3% -0.8 26
1979-02-18 @ Perugia D 0-0 1788 1729 19.3% 47.2% 33.5% +0.8 24
1979-02-18 Ascoli W 3-1 1777 1611 54.9% 39.4% 5.8% +5.3 26
1979-02-18 @ Torino L 1-3 1611 1777 5.8% 39.4% 54.9% -5.3 15
1979-03-04 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1606 1522 48.1% 43.6% 8.3% +4.7 17
1979-03-04 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1522 1606 8.3% 43.6% 48.1% -4.7 8
1979-03-04 Napoli W 2-1 1563 1640 31.2% 47.3% 21.6% +8.2 14
1979-03-04 @ Atalanta L 1-2 1640 1563 21.6% 47.3% 31.2% -8.2 20
1979-03-04 Perugia L 0-1 1661 1728 32.4% 47.3% 20.3% -10.9 17
1979-03-04 @ Avellino W 1-0 1728 1661 20.3% 47.3% 32.4% +10.9 28
1979-03-04 AC Milan L 2-3 1631 1795 20.0% 46.1% 33.9% -7.3 18
1979-03-04 @ Fiorentina W 3-2 1795 1631 33.9% 46.1% 20.0% +7.3 32
1979-03-04 Torino D 0-0 1759 1783 37.6% 46.9% 15.5% -1.4 26
1979-03-04 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1783 1759 15.5% 46.9% 37.6% +1.4 27
1979-03-04 Bologna D 1-1 1789 1572 58.9% 36.3% 4.8% -3.7 25
1979-03-04 @ Juventus D 1-1 1572 1789 4.8% 36.3% 58.9% +3.7 12
1979-03-04 Catanzaro L 1-3 1612 1628 38.5% 46.7% 14.8% -20.0 17
1979-03-04 @ Roma W 3-1 1628 1612 14.8% 46.7% 38.5% +20.0 20
1979-03-04 Lazio Roma W 4-1 1642 1671 37.0% 46.9% 16.0% +17.0 19
1979-03-04 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-4 1671 1642 16.0% 46.9% 37.0% -17.0 20
1979-03-11 Juventus D 0-0 1803 1785 41.9% 46.0% 12.1% -2.0 33
1979-03-11 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1785 1803 12.1% 46.0% 41.9% +2.0 26
1979-03-11 Fiorentina D 0-0 1576 1623 34.9% 47.1% 17.9% -1.0 13
1979-03-11 @ Bologna D 0-0 1623 1576 17.9% 47.1% 34.9% +1.0 19
1979-03-11 Avellino D 0-0 1648 1650 40.0% 46.5% 13.6% -1.7 21
1979-03-11 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1650 1648 13.6% 46.5% 40.0% +1.7 18
1979-03-11 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1517 1659 22.7% 46.6% 30.8% +0.5 9
1979-03-11 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1659 1517 30.8% 46.6% 22.7% -0.5 20
1979-03-11 Ascoli W 3-1 1654 1611 44.4% 45.2% 10.4% +9.1 22
1979-03-11 @ Lazio Roma L 1-3 1611 1654 10.4% 45.2% 44.4% -9.1 17
1979-03-11 Inter Milan D 0-0 1632 1757 24.7% 46.9% 28.4% +0.2 21
1979-03-11 @ Napoli D 0-0 1757 1632 28.4% 46.9% 24.7% -0.2 27
1979-03-11 Atalanta W 2-0 1739 1571 55.0% 39.2% 5.7% +6.0 30
1979-03-11 @ Perugia L 0-2 1571 1739 5.7% 39.2% 55.0% -6.0 14
1979-03-11 Roma W 1-0 1784 1592 56.9% 37.8% 5.2% +2.8 29
1979-03-11 @ Torino L 0-1 1592 1784 5.2% 37.8% 56.9% -2.9 17
1979-03-18 Perugia D 0-0 1602 1745 22.5% 46.6% 31.0% +0.5 18
1979-03-18 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1745 1602 31.0% 46.6% 22.5% -0.5 31
1979-03-18 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1565 1518 44.8% 45.1% 10.2% +5.5 16
1979-03-18 @ Atalanta L 0-1 1518 1565 10.2% 45.1% 44.8% -5.5 9
1979-03-18 Bologna D 0-0 1652 1575 47.4% 43.9% 8.6% -2.8 19
1979-03-18 @ Avellino D 0-0 1575 1652 8.6% 43.9% 47.4% +2.8 14
1979-03-18 Catanzaro D 1-1 1624 1647 37.8% 46.8% 15.4% -1.3 20
1979-03-18 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1647 1624 15.4% 46.8% 37.8% +1.3 22
1979-03-18 AC Milan D 2-2 1757 1801 35.4% 47.1% 17.5% -0.7 28
1979-03-18 @ Inter Milan D 2-2 1801 1757 17.5% 47.1% 35.4% +0.7 34
1979-03-18 Napoli W 1-0 1787 1632 54.0% 40.0% 6.0% +3.4 28
1979-03-18 @ Juventus L 0-1 1632 1787 6.0% 40.0% 54.0% -3.4 21
1979-03-18 Lazio Roma L 1-2 1589 1663 31.6% 47.3% 21.1% -10.1 17
1979-03-18 @ Roma W 2-1 1663 1589 21.1% 47.3% 31.6% +10.1 24
1979-03-18 Torino D 2-2 1659 1787 24.4% 46.8% 28.8% +0.2 21
1979-03-18 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1787 1659 28.8% 46.8% 24.4% -0.2 30
1979-03-25 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1801 1659 52.9% 40.7% 6.3% -3.5 35
1979-03-25 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1659 1801 6.3% 40.7% 52.9% +3.5 22
1979-03-25 Atalanta W 1-0 1578 1570 41.0% 46.2% 12.8% +6.4 16
1979-03-25 @ Bologna L 0-1 1570 1578 12.8% 46.2% 41.0% -6.4 16
1979-03-25 Ascoli D 1-1 1648 1602 44.6% 45.1% 10.2% -2.1 23
1979-03-25 @ Catanzaro D 1-1 1602 1648 10.2% 45.1% 44.6% +2.1 19
1979-03-25 Fiorentina L 0-1 1512 1623 26.7% 47.1% 26.2% -9.7 9
1979-03-25 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1623 1512 26.2% 47.1% 26.7% +9.7 22
1979-03-25 Inter Milan D 1-1 1673 1756 30.4% 47.3% 22.3% -0.4 25
1979-03-25 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1756 1673 22.3% 47.3% 30.4% +0.4 29
1979-03-25 Avellino W 3-0 1629 1649 38.0% 46.8% 15.2% +19.6 23
1979-03-25 @ Napoli L 0-3 1649 1629 15.2% 46.8% 38.0% -19.6 19
1979-03-25 Roma D 1-1 1745 1579 54.8% 39.4% 5.8% -3.3 32
1979-03-25 @ Perugia D 1-1 1579 1745 5.8% 39.4% 54.8% +3.3 18
1979-03-25 Juventus L 0-1 1787 1791 39.7% 46.5% 13.8% -12.5 30
1979-03-25 @ Torino W 1-0 1791 1787 13.8% 46.5% 39.7% +12.5 30
1979-04-01 Napoli L 0-1 1798 1648 53.5% 40.3% 6.2% -15.8 35
1979-04-01 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1648 1798 6.2% 40.3% 53.5% +15.8 25
1979-04-01 Juventus W 1-0 1604 1803 16.7% 45.0% 38.4% +12.0 21
1979-04-01 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1803 1604 38.4% 45.0% 16.7% -12.0 30
1979-04-01 Inter Milan L 0-1 1564 1757 17.2% 45.2% 37.6% -7.4 16
1979-04-01 @ Atalanta W 1-0 1757 1564 37.6% 45.2% 17.2% +7.4 31
1979-04-01 Bologna D 0-0 1646 1584 46.1% 44.5% 9.4% -2.6 24
1979-04-01 @ Catanzaro D 0-0 1584 1646 9.4% 44.5% 46.1% +2.6 17
1979-04-01 Avellino W 1-0 1633 1629 40.5% 46.3% 13.2% +6.5 24
1979-04-01 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1629 1633 13.2% 46.3% 40.5% -6.5 19
1979-04-01 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1503 1673 19.4% 45.9% 34.7% +21.2 11
1979-04-01 @ Hellas Verona L 0-2 1673 1503 34.7% 45.9% 19.4% -21.2 25
1979-04-01 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-0 1583 1662 30.8% 47.3% 21.9% +23.9 20
1979-04-01 @ Roma L 0-3 1662 1583 21.9% 47.3% 30.8% -23.9 22
1979-04-01 Perugia D 0-0 1774 1741 43.4% 45.5% 11.0% -2.2 31
1979-04-01 @ Torino D 0-0 1741 1774 11.0% 45.5% 43.4% +2.2 33
1979-04-08 Roma D 0-0 1623 1607 41.8% 46.0% 12.2% -2.0 20
1979-04-08 @ Avellino D 0-0 1607 1623 12.2% 46.0% 41.8% +2.0 21
1979-04-08 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1587 1524 46.2% 44.5% 9.3% +5.2 19
1979-04-08 @ Bologna L 0-1 1524 1587 9.3% 44.5% 46.2% -5.2 11
1979-04-08 Ascoli D 1-1 1764 1616 53.4% 40.4% 6.2% -3.2 32
1979-04-08 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1616 1764 6.2% 40.4% 53.4% +3.2 22
1979-04-08 Atalanta W 3-0 1791 1556 60.3% 35.1% 4.5% +6.3 32
1979-04-08 @ Juventus L 0-3 1556 1791 4.5% 35.1% 60.3% -6.3 16
1979-04-08 Catanzaro W 3-1 1652 1643 41.0% 46.2% 12.7% +10.5 27
1979-04-08 @ Lazio Roma L 1-3 1643 1652 12.7% 46.2% 41.0% -10.5 24
1979-04-08 Torino L 0-1 1664 1772 27.1% 47.1% 25.8% -9.8 25
1979-04-08 @ Napoli W 1-0 1772 1664 25.8% 47.1% 27.1% +9.8 33
1979-04-08 AC Milan D 1-1 1744 1782 35.9% 47.1% 17.0% -1.0 34
1979-04-08 @ Perugia D 1-1 1782 1744 17.0% 47.1% 35.9% +1.0 36
1979-04-08 Fiorentina L 0-1 1639 1639 40.1% 46.4% 13.5% -12.6 22
1979-04-08 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1639 1639 13.5% 46.4% 40.1% +12.6 26
1979-04-14 Ascoli W 3-2 1550 1620 32.2% 47.3% 20.6% +7.6 18
1979-04-14 @ Atalanta L 2-3 1620 1550 20.6% 47.3% 32.2% -7.6 22
1979-04-14 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1621 1626 39.6% 46.5% 13.9% +6.4 22
1979-04-14 @ Avellino L 1-2 1626 1621 13.9% 46.5% 39.6% -6.4 22
1979-04-14 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1592 1662 32.1% 47.3% 20.7% +8.0 21
1979-04-14 @ Bologna L 1-2 1662 1592 20.7% 47.3% 32.1% -8.0 27
1979-04-14 Catanzaro D 0-0 1519 1633 26.3% 47.0% 26.7% +0.0 12
1979-04-14 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1633 1519 26.7% 47.0% 26.3% -0.0 25
1979-04-14 Juventus W 2-1 1761 1798 36.1% 47.0% 16.8% +7.1 34
1979-04-14 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1798 1761 16.8% 47.0% 36.1% -7.1 32
1979-04-14 Napoli W 2-0 1743 1654 48.5% 43.4% 8.1% +8.7 36
1979-04-14 @ Perugia L 0-2 1654 1743 8.1% 43.4% 48.5% -8.7 25
1979-04-14 Fiorentina D 1-1 1608 1652 35.3% 47.1% 17.5% -1.0 22
1979-04-14 @ Roma D 1-1 1652 1608 17.5% 47.1% 35.3% +1.0 27
1979-04-14 AC Milan L 0-3 1782 1783 40.0% 46.5% 13.5% -34.6 33
1979-04-14 @ Torino W 3-0 1783 1782 13.5% 46.5% 40.0% +34.6 38
1979-04-22 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1818 1519 65.3% 31.0% 3.7% +1.6 40
1979-04-22 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1519 1818 3.7% 31.0% 65.3% -1.5 12
1979-04-22 Avellino W 2-0 1612 1627 38.5% 46.7% 14.7% +13.2 24
1979-04-22 @ Ascoli L 0-2 1627 1612 14.7% 46.7% 38.5% -13.2 22
1979-04-22 Perugia D 1-1 1633 1751 25.6% 47.0% 27.4% +0.1 26
1979-04-22 @ Catanzaro D 1-1 1751 1633 27.4% 47.0% 25.6% -0.1 37
1979-04-22 Atalanta L 0-1 1653 1558 49.1% 43.1% 7.9% -14.8 27
1979-04-22 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1558 1653 7.9% 43.1% 49.1% +14.8 20
1979-04-22 Roma W 4-1 1790 1608 56.2% 38.4% 5.4% +6.9 34
1979-04-22 @ Juventus L 1-4 1608 1790 5.4% 38.4% 56.2% -6.9 22
1979-04-22 Torino D 0-0 1654 1747 29.1% 47.2% 23.7% -0.3 28
1979-04-22 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1747 1654 23.7% 47.2% 29.1% +0.3 34
1979-04-22 Bologna W 2-1 1645 1600 44.6% 45.1% 10.2% +5.2 27
1979-04-22 @ Napoli L 1-2 1600 1645 10.2% 45.1% 44.6% -5.2 21
1979-04-22 Inter Milan L 0-1 1620 1768 21.8% 46.4% 31.7% -8.6 22
1979-04-22 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1768 1620 31.7% 46.4% 21.8% +8.6 36
1979-04-29 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1625 1611 41.6% 46.1% 12.3% -1.9 25
1979-04-29 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1611 1625 12.3% 46.1% 41.6% +1.9 23
1979-04-29 Avellino D 0-0 1572 1614 35.6% 47.1% 17.3% -1.1 21
1979-04-29 @ Atalanta D 0-0 1614 1572 17.3% 47.1% 35.6% +1.1 23
1979-04-29 Torino D 1-1 1595 1747 21.4% 46.4% 32.3% +0.6 22
1979-04-29 @ Bologna D 1-1 1747 1595 32.3% 46.4% 21.4% -0.6 35
1979-04-29 AC Milan L 1-3 1633 1819 17.8% 45.4% 36.8% -12.4 26
1979-04-29 @ Catanzaro W 3-1 1819 1633 36.8% 45.4% 17.8% +12.4 42
1979-04-29 Perugia D 1-1 1517 1751 13.9% 43.6% 42.5% +1.7 13
1979-04-29 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1751 1517 42.5% 43.6% 13.9% -1.7 38
1979-04-29 Roma L 1-2 1777 1601 55.7% 38.8% 5.6% -15.3 36
1979-04-29 @ Inter Milan W 2-1 1601 1777 5.6% 38.8% 55.7% +15.3 24
1979-04-29 Fiorentina D 1-1 1797 1638 54.3% 39.8% 5.9% -3.3 35
1979-04-29 @ Juventus D 1-1 1638 1797 5.9% 39.8% 54.3% +3.3 28
1979-04-29 Napoli L 1-2 1654 1651 40.5% 46.3% 13.2% -12.0 28
1979-04-29 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1651 1654 13.2% 46.3% 40.5% +12.0 29
1979-05-06 Bologna D 0-0 1832 1595 60.4% 35.0% 4.5% -4.2 43
1979-05-06 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1595 1832 4.5% 35.0% 60.4% +4.2 23
1979-05-06 Inter Milan W 1-0 1615 1762 22.1% 46.5% 31.4% +10.6 25
1979-05-06 @ Avellino L 0-1 1762 1615 31.4% 46.5% 22.1% -10.6 36
1979-05-06 Ascoli W 1-0 1641 1623 42.0% 46.0% 12.0% +6.2 30
1979-05-06 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1623 1641 12.0% 46.0% 42.0% -6.2 25
1979-05-06 Catanzaro W 1-0 1663 1620 44.4% 45.2% 10.4% +5.6 31
1979-05-06 @ Napoli L 0-1 1620 1663 10.4% 45.2% 44.4% -5.6 26
1979-05-06 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1749 1642 50.1% 42.5% 7.4% +8.0 40
1979-05-06 @ Perugia L 0-2 1642 1749 7.4% 42.5% 50.1% -8.0 28
1979-05-06 Atalanta D 2-2 1616 1571 44.6% 45.1% 10.3% -1.6 25
1979-05-06 @ Roma D 2-2 1571 1616 10.3% 45.1% 44.6% +1.6 22
1979-05-06 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1747 1519 59.8% 35.6% 4.7% -4.2 36
1979-05-06 @ Torino D 0-0 1519 1747 4.7% 35.6% 59.8% +4.2 14
1979-05-06 Juventus D 1-1 1613 1794 18.3% 45.6% 36.1% +1.0 24
1979-05-06 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1794 1613 36.1% 45.6% 18.3% -1.0 36
1979-05-13 Roma D 0-0 1617 1614 40.5% 46.4% 13.2% -1.8 26
1979-05-13 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1614 1617 13.2% 46.4% 40.5% +1.8 26
1979-05-13 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1573 1614 35.6% 47.1% 17.3% +14.5 24
1979-05-13 @ Atalanta L 0-2 1614 1573 17.3% 47.1% 35.6% -14.5 24
1979-05-13 Perugia D 2-2 1600 1757 20.8% 46.2% 33.0% +0.5 24
1979-05-13 @ Bologna D 2-2 1757 1600 33.0% 46.2% 20.8% -0.5 41
1979-05-13 Torino W 2-1 1615 1743 24.4% 46.8% 28.8% +9.5 28
1979-05-13 @ Catanzaro L 1-2 1743 1615 28.8% 46.8% 24.4% -9.5 36
1979-05-13 Napoli D 0-0 1523 1668 22.2% 46.5% 31.2% +0.5 15
1979-05-13 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1668 1523 31.2% 46.5% 22.2% -0.5 32
1979-05-13 Fiorentina L 1-2 1751 1648 49.8% 42.7% 7.5% -14.1 36
1979-05-13 @ Inter Milan W 2-1 1648 1751 7.5% 42.7% 49.8% +14.1 32
1979-05-13 Avellino D 3-3 1793 1626 55.0% 39.3% 5.7% -2.1 37
1979-05-13 @ Juventus D 3-3 1626 1793 5.7% 39.3% 55.0% +2.1 26
1979-05-13 AC Milan D 1-1 1634 1827 17.1% 45.2% 37.7% +1.1 29
1979-05-13 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1827 1634 37.7% 45.2% 17.1% -1.1 44

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1979-04-29 5.56% Roma 1601 2 @ Inter Milan 1777 1
2 1979-04-01 6.16% Napoli 1648 1 @ AC Milan 1798 0
3 1979-01-14 6.75% Lanerossi Vicenza 1646 2 @ Juventus 1773 1
4 1979-05-13 7.55% Fiorentina 1648 2 @ Inter Milan 1751 1
5 1978-10-22 7.81% Perugia 1679 2 @ Juventus 1775 1
6 1979-04-22 7.86% Atalanta 1558 1 @ Fiorentina 1653 0
7 1978-10-08 11.56% Lazio Roma 1646 3 @ Avellino 1671 1
8 1979-01-07 11.66% Lazio Roma 1635 2 @ Napoli 1658 0
9 1979-04-29 13.16% Napoli 1651 2 @ Lazio Roma 1654 1
10 1979-04-08 13.48% Fiorentina 1639 1 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1639 0
11 1979-04-14 13.54% AC Milan 1783 3 @ Torino 1782 0
12 1979-03-25 13.76% Juventus 1791 1 @ Torino 1787 0
13 1979-01-28 13.90% Catanzaro 1596 2 @ Atalanta 1590 0
14 1979-03-04 14.81% Catanzaro 1628 3 @ Roma 1612 1
15 1979-02-18 14.87% Roma 1601 2 @ Bologna 1584 1
16 1978-10-29 16.33% Ascoli 1639 3 @ Hellas Verona 1607 2
17 1979-04-01 16.65% @ Ascoli 1604 1 Juventus 1803 0
18 1978-12-17 17.73% @ Roma 1587 1 Juventus 1775 0
19 1978-10-08 18.08% AC Milan 1688 3 @ Roma 1640 0
20 1979-04-01 19.44% @ Hellas Verona 1503 2 Lazio Roma 1673 0
21 1979-03-04 20.32% Perugia 1728 1 @ Avellino 1661 0
22 1979-01-28 20.48% @ Avellino 1638 1 AC Milan 1799 0
23 1978-10-01 20.66% Inter Milan 1697 1 @ Bologna 1627 0
24 1979-03-18 21.12% Lazio Roma 1663 2 @ Roma 1589 1
25 1979-01-21 21.72% Inter Milan 1742 2 @ Fiorentina 1664 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-04-14 34.56 AC Milan 3 1783 13.54% @ Torino 0 1782 40.02% 46.45%
2 1978-10-08 31.22 AC Milan 3 1688 18.08% @ Roma 0 1640 34.76% 47.16%
3 1978-10-22 28.49 @ Ascoli 3 1611 22.87% Torino 0 1751 30.51% 46.62%
4 1979-01-07 24.94 Lazio Roma 2 1635 11.66% @ Napoli 0 1658 42.53% 45.82%
5 1979-02-18 24.46 @ Lazio Roma 4 1647 39.27% Fiorentina 0 1655 14.13% 46.59%
6 1979-04-01 23.93 @ Roma 3 1583 30.84% Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1662 21.90% 47.26%
7 1979-01-28 23.59 Catanzaro 2 1596 13.90% @ Atalanta 0 1590 39.56% 46.54%
8 1978-10-08 21.66 Lazio Roma 3 1646 11.56% @ Avellino 1 1671 42.67% 45.77%
9 1979-04-01 21.17 @ Hellas Verona 2 1503 19.44% Lazio Roma 0 1673 34.66% 45.90%
10 1979-03-04 20.00 Catanzaro 3 1628 14.81% @ Roma 1 1612 38.45% 46.74%
11 1979-02-04 19.74 Juventus 3 1763 38.75% @ Hellas Verona 0 1561 16.38% 44.88%
12 1979-03-25 19.56 @ Napoli 3 1629 37.97% Avellino 0 1649 15.21% 46.81%
13 1978-11-05 19.38 Perugia 2 1690 23.17% @ Atalanta 0 1601 29.59% 47.24%
14 1978-11-19 18.89 @ Inter Milan 4 1709 45.70% Lazio Roma 0 1652 9.61% 44.70%
15 1978-10-22 18.81 @ Fiorentina 3 1656 39.13% Lazio Roma 0 1665 14.25% 46.62%
16 1978-11-05 18.25 Torino 2 1721 26.29% @ Roma 0 1610 26.65% 47.07%
17 1979-03-04 17.01 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 4 1642 37.03% Lazio Roma 1 1671 16.03% 46.94%
18 1978-11-12 16.87 @ Torino 4 1739 48.05% Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1656 8.34% 43.61%
19 1978-10-22 16.85 AC Milan 3 1716 22.96% @ Atalanta 1 1628 29.79% 47.24%
20 1978-10-15 16.73 @ Bologna 5 1617 32.58% Lanerossi Vicenza 2 1683 20.16% 47.26%
21 1979-04-01 15.79 Napoli 1 1648 6.16% @ AC Milan 0 1798 53.55% 40.29%
22 1979-04-29 15.28 Roma 2 1601 5.56% @ Inter Milan 1 1777 55.68% 38.76%
23 1979-04-22 14.80 Atalanta 1 1558 7.86% @ Fiorentina 0 1653 49.06% 43.08%
24 1979-01-14 14.53 Lanerossi Vicenza 2 1646 6.75% @ Juventus 1 1773 51.76% 41.48%
25 1979-05-13 14.49 @ Atalanta 2 1573 35.63% Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1614 17.28% 47.09%