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1975-76 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Torino

45 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1948-49

Relegated

Cagliari

19 pts

Como · 21 pts

Ascoli · 23 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Torino

9.16 points above expected

45 points · 35.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Roma

6.35 points below expected

25 points · 31.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Torino Champion 30 18 9 3 45 49 22 +27 35.84 +9.16
2 Juventus 30 18 7 5 43 46 26 +20 38.55 +4.45
3 AC Milan 30 15 8 7 38 42 28 +14 34.77 +3.23
4 Inter Milan 30 14 9 7 37 36 28 +8 31.41 +5.59
5 Napoli 30 13 10 7 36 40 27 +13 34.61 +1.39
6 Cesena 30 9 14 7 32 39 35 +4 29.04 +2.96
7 Bologna 30 9 14 7 32 32 32 0 30.64 +1.36
8 Perugia 30 10 11 9 31 31 34 -3 29.36 +1.64
9 Fiorentina 30 9 9 12 27 39 39 0 30.36 -3.36
10 Roma 30 6 13 11 25 25 31 -6 31.35 -6.35
11 Hellas Verona 30 8 8 14 24 35 46 -11 26.22 -2.22
12 Sampdoria 30 8 8 14 24 21 32 -11 24.62 -0.62
13 Lazio Roma 30 6 11 13 23 35 40 -5 28.72 -5.72
14 Ascoli Relegated 30 4 15 11 23 19 34 -15 25.28 -2.28
15 Como Relegated 30 5 11 14 21 28 36 -8 25.44 -4.44
16 Cagliari Relegated 30 5 9 16 19 25 52 -27 23.79 -4.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Torino 1852 45 35.84 +9.16 99.4% 21 29 33 36 38 42 50
Juventus 1851 43 38.55 +4.45 89.7% 25 32 36 39 41 45 54
Napoli 1791 36 34.61 +1.39 67.8% 19 28 32 35 37 41 48
AC Milan 1762 38 34.77 +3.23 83.3% 20 28 32 35 37 41 49
Inter Milan 1740 37 31.41 +5.59 93.9% 16 25 29 31 34 38 46
Bologna 1690 32 30.64 +1.36 68.0% 17 24 28 31 33 37 45
Lazio Roma 1685 23 28.72 -5.72 9.2% 14 22 26 29 31 35 45
Cesena 1681 32 29.04 +2.96 80.6% 15 22 26 29 32 36 43
Perugia 1677 31 29.36 +1.64 70.5% 16 23 27 29 32 36 45
Fiorentina 1670 27 30.36 -3.36 23.3% 16 24 28 30 33 37 45
Roma 1654 25 31.35 -6.35 7.0% 15 25 29 31 34 38 45
Hellas Verona 1633 24 26.22 -2.22 33.5% 11 20 23 26 29 33 42
Como 1620 21 25.44 -4.44 16.0% 11 19 23 25 28 32 42
Sampdoria 1604 24 24.62 -0.62 48.8% 11 18 22 25 27 31 38
Ascoli 1595 23 25.28 -2.28 32.6% 11 19 23 25 28 32 42
Cagliari 1545 19 23.79 -4.79 13.9% 10 17 21 24 26 30 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ASC BOL CAG CES COM FIO HV IM JUV LR NAP PER ROM SAM TOR
AC Milan —
2-0-0
3.60
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.59
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.49
0-1-1
2.71
0-2-0
3.02
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.59
0-0-2
2.50
Ascoli
0-0-2
1.71
 —
0-2-0
2.03
0-2-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.39
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.22
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
2.28
0-2-0
1.70
0-1-1
2.27
0-2-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.03
Bologna
0-1-1
2.33
0-2-0
3.28
 —
1-1-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
3.23
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.55
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
2.67
1-1-0
2.36
0-2-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.64
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.33
Cagliari
1-0-1
1.56
0-2-0
2.53
0-1-1
2.18
 —
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
1.65
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
1.59
0-1-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
1.40
Cesena
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.92
0-1-1
2.53
1-1-0
3.07
 —
1-1-0
3.06
0-1-1
2.71
1-1-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
1.60
0-2-0
2.74
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.29
1-1-0
3.01
0-2-0
1.96
Como
0-1-1
1.94
0-2-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.22
 —
1-0-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.10
0-2-0
1.66
0-1-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.54
Fiorentina
0-0-2
2.31
0-1-1
3.09
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
2.57
1-0-1
3.03
 —
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
1.89
2-0-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.46
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-2
2.00
Hellas Verona
0-1-1
1.73
1-0-1
2.78
1-1-0
2.37
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.32
 —
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.49
0-2-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
1.51
Inter Milan
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
3.43
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
3.23
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.14
 —
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.24
0-2-0
2.85
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
2.31
Juventus
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.76
0-1-1
3.74
0-2-0
3.73
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
3.29
 —
2-0-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
3.77
1-1-0
3.40
2-0-0
4.12
0-0-2
3.02
Lazio Roma
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
3.01
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
3.16
0-2-0
2.56
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.59
0-2-0
2.84
0-1-1
2.60
0-0-2
1.62
 —
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-1
2.72
0-2-0
2.41
1-1-0
3.09
0-1-1
1.66
Napoli
1-1-0
2.59
0-2-0
3.63
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.13
 —
1-1-0
3.19
2-0-0
2.94
0-1-1
3.81
0-1-1
2.61
Perugia
0-2-0
2.29
1-1-0
3.03
0-2-0
2.54
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.71
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.05
0-2-0
2.44
1-0-1
1.58
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.12
 —
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.08
Roma
0-1-1
2.42
0-2-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
3.00
1-1-0
3.23
0-1-1
2.82
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
1.91
0-2-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-1
2.79
 —
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
2.38
Sampdoria
0-0-2
1.72
1-1-0
2.62
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
1.99
1-0-1
2.52
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
1.28
0-1-1
2.21
1-1-0
1.54
1-1-0
2.10
1-0-1
1.92
 —
0-1-1
1.87
Torino
2-0-0
2.78
1-1-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
4.02
0-2-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
3.34
1-1-0
3.83
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.28
1-1-0
3.65
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
3.49
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +7.5
Allowed 0.64 -8.4
Differential 0.91 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.75%10.62%4.58%2.29%0.62%—31.87%
110.62%15.00%8.33%2.71%0.83%0.42%37.92%
24.58%8.33%5.42%0.83%0.62%—19.79%
32.29%2.71%0.83%0.42%0.42%0.42%7.08%
40.62%0.83%0.62%0.42%——2.50%
5+—0.42%—0.42%——0.83%
Total31.87%37.92%19.79%7.08%2.50%0.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.13 +0.00
SD 1.07 1.07 1.40
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%——3.33%—20.00%
123.33%10.00%10.00%———43.33%
2—10.00%6.67%3.33%——20.00%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
43.33%3.33%————6.67%
5+———————
Total40.00%36.67%16.67%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 0.93 +0.47
SD 1.13 1.01 1.53
CV 0.81 1.09 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
026.67%10.00%—6.67%3.33%—46.67%
13.33%23.33%6.67%10.00%——43.33%
26.67%3.33%————10.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%36.67%6.67%16.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.63 1.13 -0.50
SD 0.67 1.20 1.36
CV 1.06 1.06 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%————23.33%
113.33%26.67%6.67%6.67%3.33%—56.67%
23.33%10.00%3.33%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———3.33%——3.33%
Total33.33%43.33%10.00%10.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.07 +0.00
SD 0.98 1.08 1.11
CV 0.92 1.01 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%10.00%3.33%10.00%——43.33%
13.33%10.00%13.33%6.67%3.33%6.67%43.33%
2—6.67%————6.67%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+———3.33%——3.33%
Total23.33%26.67%20.00%20.00%3.33%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.73 -0.90
SD 1.09 1.46 1.56
CV 1.30 0.84 —
Max 5 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%3.33%———30.00%
13.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%——23.33%
26.67%13.33%10.00%3.33%——33.33%
33.33%3.33%—3.33%—3.33%13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%36.67%16.67%10.00%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.17 +0.13
SD 1.06 1.21 1.20
CV 0.81 1.03 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%23.33%6.67%———46.67%
1—10.00%6.67%—3.33%—20.00%
23.33%6.67%10.00%6.67%——26.67%
36.67%—————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%40.00%23.33%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.20 -0.27
SD 1.01 1.03 1.31
CV 1.09 0.86 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%16.67%3.33%———30.00%
13.33%13.33%13.33%———30.00%
23.33%10.00%6.67%—3.33%—23.33%
33.33%6.67%——3.33%—13.33%
4———3.33%——3.33%
5+———————
Total20.00%46.67%23.33%3.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.06 1.23
CV 0.88 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%10.00%6.67%——33.33%
110.00%6.67%13.33%———30.00%
23.33%3.33%13.33%—6.67%—26.67%
3—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total20.00%26.67%40.00%6.67%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.53 -0.37
SD 1.09 1.11 1.47
CV 0.93 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%3.33%6.67%3.33%——23.33%
116.67%16.67%6.67%3.33%——43.33%
26.67%13.33%3.33%———23.33%
36.67%—3.33%———10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%33.33%20.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 0.93 +0.27
SD 0.92 0.94 1.41
CV 0.77 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
120.00%16.67%3.33%———40.00%
213.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
33.33%——3.33%——6.67%
4—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
5+———————
Total36.67%43.33%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.87 +0.67
SD 1.04 0.82 1.27
CV 0.68 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%6.67%3.33%——30.00%
16.67%20.00%16.67%———43.33%
2——10.00%———10.00%
33.33%3.33%3.33%—3.33%—13.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total20.00%36.67%36.67%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.33 -0.17
SD 1.12 0.96 1.42
CV 0.96 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%3.33%3.33%———20.00%
120.00%13.33%13.33%3.33%——50.00%
23.33%3.33%6.67%———13.33%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
43.33%—3.33%———6.67%
5+———————
Total43.33%26.67%26.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.90 +0.43
SD 1.12 0.92 1.38
CV 0.84 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%—3.33%3.33%—33.33%
110.00%13.33%3.33%10.00%——36.67%
26.67%13.33%6.67%———26.67%
3———————
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total33.33%40.00%10.00%13.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.13 -0.10
SD 0.96 1.14 1.49
CV 0.93 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%10.00%3.33%——43.33%
110.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
23.33%3.33%6.67%———13.33%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total30.00%40.00%26.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.03 -0.20
SD 1.05 0.85 1.32
CV 1.26 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%23.33%13.33%———53.33%
113.33%10.00%3.33%—3.33%—30.00%
23.33%6.67%————10.00%
3—3.33%———3.33%6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%43.33%16.67%—3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.70 1.07 -0.37
SD 0.92 1.17 1.27
CV 1.31 1.10 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%6.67%————20.00%
113.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
210.00%13.33%————23.33%
33.33%10.00%————13.33%
4——3.33%3.33%——6.67%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total40.00%50.00%6.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 0.73 +0.90
SD 1.33 0.74 1.18
CV 0.81 1.01 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Torino 45 35.84 +9.16
2 Inter Milan 37 31.41 +5.59
3 Juventus 43 38.55 +4.45
4 AC Milan 38 34.77 +3.23
5 Cesena 32 29.04 +2.96

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Roma 25 31.35 -6.35
2 Lazio Roma 23 28.72 -5.72
3 Cagliari 19 23.79 -4.79
4 Como 21 25.44 -4.44
5 Fiorentina 27 30.36 -3.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Juventus 8 Dec 14 – Feb 9 1 in 312
2 Torino 5 Dec 7 – Jan 12 1 in 145
3 Cagliari 2 May 9 – May 16 1 in 73
4 Fiorentina 3 Jan 18 – Feb 2 1 in 53
5 Inter Milan 3 Dec 21 – Jan 12 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Como 5 Dec 14 – Jan 18 1 in 135
2 Juventus 3 Mar 21 – Apr 4 1 in 102
3 Cagliari 4 Oct 19 – Nov 16 1 in 51
4 Fiorentina 3 Apr 4 – Apr 18 1 in 31
5 Ascoli 3 Dec 21 – Jan 12 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cesena 12 Nov 2 – Feb 2 1 in 119
2 Torino 15 Oct 12 – Feb 9 1 in 83
3 Inter Milan 13 Dec 21 – Mar 21 1 in 71
4 Bologna 10 Oct 19 – Jan 12 1 in 57
5 Fiorentina 7 Jan 12 – Feb 22 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Roma 11 Mar 7 – May 16 1 in 174
2 Como 15 Nov 30 – Mar 14 1 in 90
3 Ascoli 13 Dec 7 – Mar 7 1 in 42
4 Cagliari 11 Oct 5 – Dec 30 1 in 35
5 Fiorentina 9 Feb 22 – Apr 18 1 in 31

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Torino21.34%22.17%16.97%11.85%8.38%6.19%4.08%3.10%2.12%1.53%0.90%0.63%0.36%0.28%0.08%0.02%
Juventus46.56%22.03%12.85%7.74%4.26%2.51%1.75%0.96%0.61%0.34%0.24%0.10%0.04%0.01%——
AC Milan11.67%16.91%16.77%14.61%11.77%8.57%6.22%4.36%3.12%2.18%1.53%0.97%0.70%0.45%0.12%0.05%
Inter Milan2.68%5.31%8.05%9.77%11.15%11.12%10.89%9.61%7.88%6.52%5.50%4.26%3.11%2.20%1.39%0.56%
Napoli10.80%16.30%17.03%13.71%11.51%9.08%6.52%4.84%3.28%2.64%1.80%1.12%0.68%0.39%0.18%0.12%
Cesena0.57%1.91%3.04%5.15%6.55%7.87%9.16%9.71%10.26%9.53%8.89%7.88%7.44%5.37%4.12%2.55%
Bologna1.63%3.40%5.57%8.21%9.14%9.73%10.38%10.64%9.45%8.26%7.31%5.90%4.12%3.11%2.14%1.01%
Perugia0.69%2.16%3.32%5.51%6.58%7.67%9.07%9.43%10.09%9.66%9.23%8.11%6.87%5.43%3.94%2.24%
Fiorentina1.18%2.96%5.29%6.82%9.07%9.37%10.53%10.30%9.97%8.96%7.89%6.26%4.73%3.10%2.24%1.33%
Roma2.25%4.53%6.57%9.00%10.31%10.90%10.52%9.49%8.39%7.70%6.28%5.40%3.70%2.70%1.47%0.79%
Hellas Verona0.06%0.35%0.85%1.45%1.99%2.85%3.82%5.45%6.82%8.02%9.74%10.75%12.07%13.09%11.95%10.74%
Sampdoria0.03%0.10%0.24%0.54%0.99%1.43%2.27%2.93%4.25%6.01%7.98%10.00%11.90%14.49%17.48%19.36%
Lazio Roma0.48%1.55%2.38%3.86%5.15%7.10%7.50%9.20%9.99%10.64%10.07%9.32%8.35%6.50%4.99%2.92%
Ascoli0.03%0.12%0.39%0.67%1.17%1.99%2.75%3.99%5.37%6.59%8.03%10.48%12.13%14.68%16.17%15.44%
Como0.03%0.15%0.50%0.85%1.45%2.58%3.09%4.14%5.78%7.12%8.81%10.65%13.06%13.94%14.43%13.42%
Cagliari—0.05%0.18%0.26%0.53%1.04%1.45%1.85%2.62%4.30%5.80%8.17%10.74%14.26%19.30%29.45%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.08%
Strong Edge
46.25%34.58%19.17%
Elo Value
Home Edge
234 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
096.50600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.47 goals
Neutral
-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Torino, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.15 * Some Luck: 3.15 to 4.73 * Lucky: 4.73 to 6.31 * Wild Swing: 6.31 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.09 * Close: 2.09 to 3.13 * Off: 3.13 to 4.17 * Way Off: 4.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.39 * A Surprise: 1.39 to 2.23 * Several Surprises: 2.23 to 3.07 * Many Surprises: 3.07 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.32 points
Some Luck
03.9410
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.38
Pinpoint
02.616
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.40%
Torino
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
7.00%
Roma
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 3
As Expected
01.43

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.46
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
75%
Very Frequent
0%71%100%
Blowouts
Expected 8%
8%
Occasional
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.21
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1050.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Juventus 99.99% 0.01%
Torino 99.62% 0.38%
AC Milan 99.38% 0.62%
Napoli 99.31% 0.69%
Inter Milan 95.85% 4.15%
Roma 95.04% 4.96%
Bologna 93.74% 6.26%
Fiorentina 93.33% 6.67%
Perugia 88.39% 11.61%
Cesena 87.96% 12.04%
Lazio Roma 85.59% 14.41%
Hellas Verona 64.22% 35.78%
Como 58.21% 41.79%
Ascoli 53.71% 46.29%
Sampdoria 48.67% 51.33%
Cagliari 36.99% 63.01%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1975-10-05 Fiorentina W 1-0 1642 1700 43.0% 36.5% 20.5% +7.9 2
1975-10-05 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1700 1642 20.5% 36.5% 43.0% -7.9 0
1975-10-05 Torino W 1-0 1686 1726 44.9% 36.4% 18.8% +7.4 2
1975-10-05 @ Bologna L 0-1 1726 1686 18.8% 36.4% 44.9% -7.4 0
1975-10-05 Cesena D 0-0 1686 1641 53.2% 34.7% 12.0% -3.0 1
1975-10-05 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1641 1686 12.0% 34.7% 53.2% +3.0 1
1975-10-05 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1787 1669 59.1% 32.5% 8.5% +3.6 2
1975-10-05 @ Juventus L 1-2 1669 1787 8.5% 32.5% 59.1% -3.6 0
1975-10-05 Como W 1-0 1743 1647 57.4% 33.2% 9.4% +4.2 2
1975-10-05 @ Napoli L 0-1 1647 1743 9.4% 33.2% 57.4% -4.2 0
1975-10-05 AC Milan D 0-0 1678 1722 44.5% 36.4% 19.1% -1.7 1
1975-10-05 @ Perugia D 0-0 1722 1678 19.1% 36.4% 44.5% +1.7 1
1975-10-05 Cagliari D 1-1 1724 1657 55.0% 34.2% 10.8% -2.9 1
1975-10-05 @ Roma D 1-1 1657 1724 10.8% 34.2% 55.0% +2.9 1
1975-10-05 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1629 1713 39.8% 36.6% 23.6% -12.3 0
1975-10-05 @ Sampdoria W 1-0 1713 1629 23.6% 36.6% 39.8% +12.3 2
1975-10-12 Sampdoria W 1-0 1723 1616 58.2% 32.8% 8.9% +4.0 3
1975-10-12 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1616 1723 8.9% 32.8% 58.2% -4.0 0
1975-10-12 Ascoli D 0-0 1660 1650 50.0% 35.6% 14.4% -2.5 2
1975-10-12 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1650 1660 14.4% 35.6% 50.0% +2.5 3
1975-10-12 Roma W 2-0 1644 1721 40.7% 36.6% 22.7% +15.9 3
1975-10-12 @ Cesena L 0-2 1721 1644 22.7% 36.6% 40.7% -15.9 1
1975-10-12 Juventus D 2-2 1643 1790 31.4% 36.4% 32.2% +0.0 1
1975-10-12 @ Como D 2-2 1790 1643 32.2% 36.4% 31.4% -0.0 3
1975-10-12 Napoli D 1-1 1692 1747 43.2% 36.5% 20.3% -1.4 1
1975-10-12 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1747 1692 20.3% 36.5% 43.2% +1.4 3
1975-10-12 Bologna W 1-0 1666 1694 46.2% 36.2% 17.6% +7.1 2
1975-10-12 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1694 1666 17.6% 36.2% 46.2% -7.1 2
1975-10-12 Inter Milan D 1-1 1725 1683 52.9% 34.8% 12.2% -2.6 3
1975-10-12 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1683 1725 12.2% 34.8% 52.9% +2.7 2
1975-10-12 Perugia W 3-0 1719 1677 53.0% 34.8% 12.2% +14.6 2
1975-10-12 @ Torino L 0-3 1677 1719 12.2% 34.8% 53.0% -14.6 1
1975-10-19 Torino D 1-1 1653 1734 40.2% 36.6% 23.2% -1.0 4
1975-10-19 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1734 1653 23.2% 36.6% 40.2% +1.0 3
1975-10-19 AC Milan D 1-1 1687 1727 44.8% 36.4% 18.8% -1.6 3
1975-10-19 @ Bologna D 1-1 1727 1687 18.8% 36.4% 44.8% +1.6 4
1975-10-19 Cagliari W 1-0 1686 1658 51.7% 35.2% 13.1% +5.6 4
1975-10-19 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1658 1686 13.1% 35.2% 51.7% -5.6 2
1975-10-19 Fiorentina W 4-2 1790 1690 57.7% 33.1% 9.2% +6.0 5
1975-10-19 @ Juventus L 2-4 1690 1790 9.2% 33.1% 57.7% -6.0 1
1975-10-19 Cesena W 2-0 1749 1660 56.8% 33.5% 9.7% +8.2 5
1975-10-19 @ Napoli L 0-2 1660 1749 9.7% 33.5% 56.8% -8.2 3
1975-10-19 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1662 1722 42.6% 36.5% 20.8% +15.0 3
1975-10-19 @ Perugia L 0-2 1722 1662 20.8% 36.5% 42.6% -15.0 3
1975-10-19 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1705 1673 52.0% 35.1% 12.9% +10.5 3
1975-10-19 @ Roma L 0-2 1673 1705 12.9% 35.1% 52.0% -10.5 2
1975-10-19 Como W 1-0 1612 1643 45.9% 36.2% 17.9% +7.2 2
1975-10-19 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1643 1612 17.9% 36.2% 45.9% -7.1 1
1975-11-02 Ascoli W 4-0 1729 1652 55.9% 33.8% 10.3% +16.3 6
1975-11-02 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1652 1729 10.3% 33.8% 55.9% -16.3 4
1975-11-02 Juventus L 0-1 1652 1796 31.8% 36.4% 31.7% -10.5 2
1975-11-02 @ Cagliari W 1-0 1796 1652 31.7% 36.4% 31.8% +10.5 7
1975-11-02 Sampdoria D 1-1 1652 1620 52.1% 35.1% 12.9% -2.5 4
1975-11-02 @ Cesena D 1-1 1620 1652 12.9% 35.1% 52.1% +2.5 3
1975-11-02 Roma D 0-0 1636 1715 40.4% 36.6% 23.0% -1.1 2
1975-11-02 @ Como D 0-0 1715 1636 23.0% 36.6% 40.4% +1.1 4
1975-11-02 Perugia W 3-1 1684 1677 49.8% 35.6% 14.6% +10.1 3
1975-11-02 @ Fiorentina L 1-3 1677 1684 14.6% 35.6% 49.8% -10.1 3
1975-11-02 Napoli L 2-4 1662 1757 38.5% 36.7% 24.8% -17.5 2
1975-11-02 @ Hellas Verona W 4-2 1757 1662 24.8% 36.7% 38.5% +17.5 7
1975-11-02 Bologna D 1-1 1707 1685 51.2% 35.3% 13.5% -2.4 4
1975-11-02 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1685 1707 13.5% 35.3% 51.2% +2.4 4
1975-11-02 Inter Milan W 2-1 1735 1691 53.0% 34.8% 12.2% +5.0 5
1975-11-02 @ Torino L 1-2 1691 1735 12.2% 34.8% 53.0% -5.0 4
1975-11-09 Cesena D 0-0 1635 1649 47.7% 36.0% 16.3% -2.2 5
1975-11-09 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1649 1635 16.3% 36.0% 47.7% +2.2 5
1975-11-09 Fiorentina D 1-1 1687 1694 48.4% 35.9% 15.8% -2.0 5
1975-11-09 @ Bologna D 1-1 1694 1687 15.8% 35.9% 48.4% +2.0 4
1975-11-09 Hellas Verona W 3-0 1686 1645 52.9% 34.8% 12.3% +14.6 6
1975-11-09 @ Inter Milan L 0-3 1645 1686 12.3% 34.8% 52.9% -14.6 2
1975-11-09 Lazio Roma W 2-0 1807 1705 57.9% 33.0% 9.1% +7.7 9
1975-11-09 @ Juventus L 0-2 1705 1807 9.1% 33.0% 57.9% -7.7 4
1975-11-09 Cagliari W 3-1 1774 1641 60.2% 31.9% 7.9% +5.8 9
1975-11-09 @ Napoli L 1-3 1641 1774 7.9% 31.9% 60.2% -5.8 2
1975-11-09 Como W 2-0 1667 1635 52.1% 35.1% 12.9% +10.5 5
1975-11-09 @ Perugia L 0-2 1635 1667 12.9% 35.1% 52.1% -10.5 2
1975-11-09 AC Milan D 0-0 1716 1745 46.1% 36.2% 17.7% -1.9 5
1975-11-09 @ Roma D 0-0 1745 1716 17.7% 36.2% 46.1% +1.9 7
1975-11-09 Torino D 0-0 1622 1740 35.5% 36.6% 27.9% -0.5 4
1975-11-09 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1740 1622 27.9% 36.6% 35.5% +0.5 6
1975-11-16 Juventus L 0-1 1747 1815 41.8% 36.6% 21.6% -12.8 7
1975-11-16 @ AC Milan W 1-0 1815 1747 21.6% 36.6% 41.8% +12.8 11
1975-11-16 Bologna L 1-2 1636 1685 43.8% 36.4% 19.7% -12.5 2
1975-11-16 @ Cagliari W 2-1 1685 1636 19.7% 36.4% 43.8% +12.5 7
1975-11-16 Perugia W 2-1 1651 1678 46.4% 36.2% 17.4% +6.6 7
1975-11-16 @ Cesena L 1-2 1678 1651 17.4% 36.2% 46.4% -6.6 5
1975-11-16 Inter Milan W 3-0 1624 1701 40.7% 36.6% 22.7% +23.1 4
1975-11-16 @ Como L 0-3 1701 1624 22.7% 36.6% 40.7% -23.1 6
1975-11-16 Sampdoria L 0-1 1696 1622 55.7% 33.9% 10.4% -16.3 4
1975-11-16 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1622 1696 10.4% 33.9% 55.7% +16.3 6
1975-11-16 Ascoli W 1-0 1630 1633 48.8% 35.8% 15.4% +6.4 4
1975-11-16 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1633 1630 15.4% 35.8% 48.8% -6.4 5
1975-11-16 Roma D 1-1 1697 1714 47.3% 36.0% 16.6% -1.9 5
1975-11-16 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1714 1697 16.6% 36.0% 47.3% +1.9 6
1975-11-16 Napoli W 3-1 1740 1780 44.9% 36.4% 18.7% +12.1 8
1975-11-16 @ Torino L 1-3 1780 1740 18.7% 36.4% 44.9% -12.1 9
1975-11-30 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1627 1695 41.6% 36.6% 21.8% +7.8 7
1975-11-30 @ Ascoli L 1-2 1695 1627 21.8% 36.6% 41.6% -7.7 5
1975-11-30 Como D 1-1 1698 1647 53.7% 34.6% 11.7% -2.8 8
1975-11-30 @ Bologna D 1-1 1647 1698 11.7% 34.6% 53.7% +2.8 5
1975-11-30 Perugia D 0-0 1623 1671 44.0% 36.4% 19.5% -1.7 3
1975-11-30 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1671 1623 19.5% 36.4% 44.0% +1.6 6
1975-11-30 Sampdoria W 4-1 1637 1638 48.9% 35.8% 15.3% +14.7 6
1975-11-30 @ Hellas Verona L 1-4 1638 1637 15.3% 35.8% 48.9% -14.7 6
1975-11-30 Fiorentina W 1-0 1678 1680 48.8% 35.8% 15.4% +6.4 8
1975-11-30 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1680 1678 15.4% 35.8% 48.8% -6.4 4
1975-11-30 Cesena D 3-3 1827 1658 62.8% 30.4% 6.7% -2.4 12
1975-11-30 @ Juventus D 3-3 1658 1827 6.7% 30.4% 62.8% +2.4 8
1975-11-30 AC Milan W 1-0 1768 1734 52.2% 35.0% 12.8% +5.5 11
1975-11-30 @ Napoli L 0-1 1734 1768 12.8% 35.0% 52.2% -5.5 7
1975-11-30 Torino D 1-1 1716 1752 45.4% 36.3% 18.3% -1.6 7
1975-11-30 @ Roma D 1-1 1752 1716 18.3% 36.3% 45.4% +1.7 9
1975-12-07 Inter Milan W 2-1 1729 1684 53.2% 34.8% 12.1% +5.0 9
1975-12-07 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1684 1729 12.1% 34.8% 53.2% -5.0 8
1975-12-07 Bologna D 0-0 1660 1695 45.5% 36.3% 18.2% -1.8 9
1975-12-07 @ Cesena D 0-0 1695 1660 18.2% 36.3% 45.5% +1.8 9
1975-12-07 Ascoli D 0-0 1650 1634 50.6% 35.4% 14.0% -2.6 6
1975-12-07 @ Como D 0-0 1634 1650 14.0% 35.4% 50.6% +2.6 8
1975-12-07 Roma W 2-0 1674 1715 44.8% 36.4% 18.9% +14.0 6
1975-12-07 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1715 1674 18.9% 36.4% 44.8% -14.0 7
1975-12-07 Napoli L 0-1 1688 1773 39.6% 36.7% 23.8% -12.2 5
1975-12-07 @ Lazio Roma W 1-0 1773 1688 23.8% 36.7% 39.6% +12.2 13
1975-12-07 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1673 1651 51.1% 35.3% 13.6% +5.8 8
1975-12-07 @ Perugia L 0-1 1651 1673 13.6% 35.3% 51.1% -5.8 6
1975-12-07 Cagliari W 2-1 1623 1622 49.2% 35.7% 15.1% +5.9 8
1975-12-07 @ Sampdoria L 1-2 1622 1623 15.1% 35.7% 49.2% -5.9 3
1975-12-07 Juventus W 2-0 1754 1825 41.3% 36.6% 22.1% +15.6 11
1975-12-07 @ Torino L 0-2 1825 1754 22.1% 36.6% 41.3% -15.6 12
1975-12-14 Torino L 1-2 1734 1769 45.4% 36.3% 18.3% -12.9 9
1975-12-14 @ AC Milan W 2-1 1769 1734 18.3% 36.3% 45.4% +12.9 13
1975-12-14 Perugia D 1-1 1697 1678 50.8% 35.4% 13.8% -2.4 10
1975-12-14 @ Bologna D 1-1 1678 1697 13.8% 35.4% 50.8% +2.4 9
1975-12-14 Cesena L 1-2 1616 1659 44.6% 36.4% 19.0% -12.7 3
1975-12-14 @ Cagliari W 2-1 1659 1616 19.0% 36.4% 44.6% +12.7 11
1975-12-14 Fiorentina L 0-1 1648 1688 44.9% 36.4% 18.8% -13.5 6
1975-12-14 @ Como W 1-0 1688 1648 18.8% 36.4% 44.9% +13.5 8
1975-12-14 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1646 1675 46.0% 36.2% 17.8% -1.3 7
1975-12-14 @ Hellas Verona D 2-2 1675 1646 17.8% 36.2% 46.0% +1.3 6
1975-12-14 Inter Milan W 2-0 1809 1679 60.0% 32.0% 8.0% +6.7 14
1975-12-14 @ Juventus L 0-2 1679 1809 8.0% 32.0% 60.0% -6.7 8
1975-12-14 Ascoli D 0-0 1786 1637 61.4% 31.3% 7.4% -4.1 14
1975-12-14 @ Napoli D 0-0 1637 1786 7.4% 31.3% 61.4% +4.2 9
1975-12-14 Sampdoria W 1-0 1701 1629 55.5% 34.0% 10.5% +4.7 9
1975-12-14 @ Roma L 0-1 1629 1701 10.5% 34.0% 55.5% -4.7 8
1975-12-21 Juventus L 0-3 1641 1816 27.8% 36.1% 36.1% -26.2 9
1975-12-21 @ Ascoli W 3-0 1816 1641 36.1% 36.1% 27.8% +26.2 16
1975-12-21 Hellas Verona W 3-0 1671 1644 51.6% 35.2% 13.2% +15.6 13
1975-12-21 @ Cesena L 0-3 1644 1671 13.2% 35.2% 51.6% -15.5 7
1975-12-21 AC Milan L 0-1 1701 1721 47.1% 36.1% 16.8% -14.1 8
1975-12-21 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1721 1701 16.8% 36.1% 47.1% +14.1 11
1975-12-21 Napoli W 2-1 1673 1781 36.6% 36.6% 26.7% +8.9 10
1975-12-21 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1781 1673 26.7% 36.6% 36.6% -8.9 14
1975-12-21 Cagliari W 3-0 1677 1603 55.6% 33.9% 10.4% +12.7 8
1975-12-21 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1603 1677 10.4% 33.9% 55.6% -12.7 3
1975-12-21 Roma L 0-1 1681 1705 46.5% 36.2% 17.3% -14.0 9
1975-12-21 @ Perugia W 1-0 1705 1681 17.3% 36.2% 46.5% +13.9 11
1975-12-21 Bologna L 0-1 1624 1695 41.4% 36.6% 21.9% -12.7 8
1975-12-21 @ Sampdoria W 1-0 1695 1624 21.9% 36.6% 41.4% +12.7 12
1975-12-21 Como W 1-0 1782 1634 61.3% 31.3% 7.4% +3.3 15
1975-12-21 @ Torino L 0-1 1634 1782 7.4% 31.3% 61.3% -3.3 6
1975-12-30 Roma W 2-1 1707 1719 47.9% 36.0% 16.2% +6.3 14
1975-12-30 @ Bologna L 1-2 1719 1707 16.2% 36.0% 47.9% -6.3 11
1975-12-30 AC Milan L 1-4 1631 1735 37.2% 36.7% 26.1% -27.0 6
1975-12-30 @ Como W 4-1 1735 1631 26.1% 36.7% 37.2% +27.0 13
1975-12-30 Torino L 0-1 1687 1786 38.0% 36.7% 25.4% -11.9 8
1975-12-30 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1786 1687 25.4% 36.7% 38.0% +11.9 17
1975-12-30 Cagliari W 2-1 1629 1590 52.6% 34.9% 12.4% +5.1 9
1975-12-30 @ Hellas Verona L 1-2 1590 1629 12.4% 34.9% 52.6% -5.1 3
1975-12-30 Ascoli W 3-0 1681 1615 55.0% 34.2% 10.8% +13.1 12
1975-12-30 @ Inter Milan L 0-3 1615 1681 10.8% 34.2% 55.0% -13.1 9
1975-12-30 Napoli W 2-1 1842 1773 55.3% 34.1% 10.7% +4.5 18
1975-12-30 @ Juventus L 1-2 1773 1842 10.7% 34.1% 55.3% -4.4 14
1975-12-30 Cesena D 2-2 1689 1687 49.3% 35.7% 15.0% -1.6 9
1975-12-30 @ Lazio Roma D 2-2 1687 1689 15.0% 35.7% 49.3% +1.6 14
1975-12-30 Sampdoria D 0-0 1667 1612 54.1% 34.5% 11.5% -3.1 10
1975-12-30 @ Perugia D 0-0 1612 1667 11.5% 34.5% 54.1% +3.1 9
1976-01-12 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1762 1634 59.9% 32.1% 8.1% +3.6 15
1976-01-12 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1634 1762 8.1% 32.1% 59.9% -3.6 9
1976-01-12 Perugia L 1-2 1602 1664 42.4% 36.5% 21.0% -12.2 9
1976-01-12 @ Ascoli W 2-1 1664 1602 21.0% 36.5% 42.4% +12.2 12
1976-01-12 Como W 1-0 1585 1604 47.2% 36.1% 16.8% +6.8 5
1976-01-12 @ Cagliari L 0-1 1604 1585 16.8% 36.1% 47.2% -6.8 6
1976-01-12 Fiorentina D 1-1 1688 1675 50.3% 35.5% 14.2% -2.3 15
1976-01-12 @ Cesena D 1-1 1675 1688 14.2% 35.5% 50.3% +2.3 9
1976-01-12 Bologna D 2-2 1768 1714 54.0% 34.5% 11.5% -2.1 15
1976-01-12 @ Napoli D 2-2 1714 1768 11.5% 34.5% 54.0% +2.1 15
1976-01-12 Juventus L 0-1 1713 1847 33.3% 36.5% 30.1% -10.8 11
1976-01-12 @ Roma W 1-0 1847 1713 30.1% 36.5% 33.3% +10.8 20
1976-01-12 Inter Milan L 0-2 1615 1695 40.3% 36.6% 23.0% -23.4 9
1976-01-12 @ Sampdoria W 2-0 1695 1615 23.0% 36.6% 40.3% +23.4 14
1976-01-12 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1797 1688 58.5% 32.8% 8.8% +3.7 19
1976-01-12 @ Torino L 1-2 1688 1797 8.8% 32.8% 58.5% -3.7 9
1976-01-18 Sampdoria D 1-1 1590 1592 48.9% 35.8% 15.3% -2.1 10
1976-01-18 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1592 1590 15.3% 35.8% 48.9% +2.1 10
1976-01-18 Torino D 0-0 1592 1801 23.7% 35.4% 40.8% +1.1 6
1976-01-18 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1801 1592 40.8% 35.4% 23.7% -1.1 20
1976-01-18 AC Milan W 2-1 1686 1766 40.3% 36.6% 23.0% +8.0 17
1976-01-18 @ Cesena L 1-2 1766 1686 23.0% 36.6% 40.3% -8.0 15
1976-01-18 Como W 3-2 1630 1597 52.2% 35.0% 12.8% +4.9 11
1976-01-18 @ Hellas Verona L 2-3 1597 1630 12.8% 35.0% 52.2% -4.9 6
1976-01-18 Perugia D 2-2 1718 1676 52.9% 34.8% 12.2% -2.0 15
1976-01-18 @ Inter Milan D 2-2 1676 1718 12.2% 34.8% 52.9% +2.0 13
1976-01-18 Bologna W 1-0 1857 1716 60.9% 31.6% 7.6% +3.4 22
1976-01-18 @ Juventus L 0-1 1716 1857 7.6% 31.6% 60.9% -3.4 15
1976-01-18 Fiorentina L 1-2 1684 1678 49.7% 35.6% 14.7% -13.9 9
1976-01-18 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1678 1684 14.7% 35.6% 49.7% +13.9 11
1976-01-18 Roma W 2-1 1766 1702 54.8% 34.2% 11.0% +4.6 17
1976-01-18 @ Napoli L 1-2 1702 1766 11.0% 34.2% 54.8% -4.6 11
1976-01-25 Lazio Roma W 3-0 1758 1670 56.7% 33.5% 9.8% +11.9 17
1976-01-25 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1670 1758 9.8% 33.5% 56.7% -11.9 9
1976-01-25 Ascoli D 1-1 1712 1588 59.6% 32.2% 8.2% -3.5 16
1976-01-25 @ Bologna D 1-1 1588 1712 8.2% 32.2% 59.6% +3.5 11
1976-01-25 Cesena D 0-0 1592 1694 37.5% 36.7% 25.8% -0.7 7
1976-01-25 @ Como D 0-0 1694 1592 25.8% 36.7% 37.5% +0.7 18
1976-01-25 Cagliari W 3-0 1692 1593 57.6% 33.1% 9.3% +11.3 13
1976-01-25 @ Fiorentina L 0-3 1593 1692 9.3% 33.1% 57.6% -11.3 6
1976-01-25 Napoli D 2-2 1678 1771 38.7% 36.7% 24.6% -0.6 14
1976-01-25 @ Perugia D 2-2 1771 1678 24.6% 36.7% 38.7% +0.6 18
1976-01-25 Inter Milan D 1-1 1698 1716 47.2% 36.1% 16.7% -1.9 12
1976-01-25 @ Roma D 1-1 1716 1698 16.7% 36.1% 47.2% +1.9 16
1976-01-25 Juventus L 0-2 1594 1861 18.1% 33.9% 48.0% -13.1 10
1976-01-25 @ Sampdoria W 2-0 1861 1594 48.0% 33.9% 18.1% +13.1 24
1976-01-25 Hellas Verona W 4-2 1800 1635 62.5% 30.6% 6.9% +4.4 22
1976-01-25 @ Torino L 2-4 1635 1800 6.9% 30.6% 62.5% -4.4 11
1976-02-02 Roma D 0-0 1591 1696 37.2% 36.7% 26.2% -0.7 12
1976-02-02 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1696 1591 26.2% 36.7% 37.2% +0.7 13
1976-02-02 AC Milan L 1-3 1582 1769 26.2% 35.9% 38.0% -15.0 6
1976-02-02 @ Cagliari W 3-1 1769 1582 38.0% 35.9% 26.2% +15.0 19
1976-02-02 Torino D 1-1 1695 1804 36.5% 36.6% 26.8% -0.5 19
1976-02-02 @ Cesena D 1-1 1804 1695 26.8% 36.6% 36.5% +0.6 23
1976-02-02 Fiorentina L 1-2 1631 1703 41.2% 36.6% 22.2% -11.9 11
1976-02-02 @ Hellas Verona W 2-1 1703 1631 22.2% 36.6% 41.2% +11.9 15
1976-02-02 Bologna D 1-1 1718 1709 49.9% 35.6% 14.5% -2.2 17
1976-02-02 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1709 1718 14.5% 35.6% 49.9% +2.2 17
1976-02-02 Perugia W 1-0 1874 1677 64.7% 29.3% 6.0% +2.6 26
1976-02-02 @ Juventus L 0-1 1677 1874 6.0% 29.3% 64.7% -2.6 14
1976-02-02 Como W 3-2 1658 1591 55.1% 34.1% 10.8% +4.3 11
1976-02-02 @ Lazio Roma L 2-3 1591 1658 10.8% 34.1% 55.1% -4.3 7
1976-02-02 Sampdoria D 0-0 1771 1581 64.3% 29.5% 6.1% -4.5 19
1976-02-02 @ Napoli D 0-0 1581 1771 6.1% 29.5% 64.3% +4.5 11
1976-02-09 Perugia D 0-0 1784 1675 58.5% 32.7% 8.8% -3.8 20
1976-02-09 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1675 1784 8.8% 32.7% 58.5% +3.8 15
1976-02-09 Roma L 1-5 1567 1697 33.8% 36.6% 29.6% -32.5 6
1976-02-09 @ Cagliari W 5-1 1697 1567 29.6% 36.6% 33.8% +32.5 15
1976-02-09 Inter Milan L 2-3 1694 1716 46.9% 36.1% 17.0% -12.6 19
1976-02-09 @ Cesena W 3-2 1716 1694 17.0% 36.1% 46.9% +12.6 19
1976-02-09 Napoli L 0-1 1587 1767 27.2% 36.0% 36.8% -9.4 7
1976-02-09 @ Como W 1-0 1767 1587 36.8% 36.0% 27.2% +9.4 21
1976-02-09 Ascoli D 0-0 1715 1590 59.6% 32.2% 8.2% -3.9 16
1976-02-09 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1590 1715 8.2% 32.2% 59.6% +3.9 13
1976-02-09 Juventus L 1-2 1619 1876 18.9% 34.2% 46.9% -6.8 11
1976-02-09 @ Hellas Verona W 2-1 1876 1619 46.9% 34.2% 18.9% +6.8 28
1976-02-09 Sampdoria D 1-1 1663 1585 55.9% 33.8% 10.2% -3.0 12
1976-02-09 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1585 1663 10.2% 33.8% 55.9% +3.1 12
1976-02-09 Bologna W 3-1 1805 1711 57.2% 33.3% 9.5% +6.9 25
1976-02-09 @ Torino L 1-3 1711 1805 9.5% 33.3% 57.2% -6.9 17
1976-02-15 Cagliari D 1-1 1594 1534 54.5% 34.3% 11.2% -2.9 14
1976-02-15 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1534 1594 11.2% 34.3% 54.5% +2.9 7
1976-02-15 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1704 1612 57.1% 33.4% 9.6% -3.6 18
1976-02-15 @ Bologna D 0-0 1612 1704 9.6% 33.4% 57.1% +3.6 12
1976-02-15 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1728 1659 55.2% 34.1% 10.7% +4.7 21
1976-02-15 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1659 1728 10.7% 34.1% 55.2% -4.7 12
1976-02-15 Como D 1-1 1883 1578 71.9% 24.3% 3.8% -4.7 29
1976-02-15 @ Juventus D 1-1 1578 1883 3.8% 24.3% 71.9% +4.6 8
1976-02-15 Fiorentina L 1-2 1776 1711 54.9% 34.2% 10.9% -15.2 21
1976-02-15 @ Napoli W 2-1 1711 1776 10.9% 34.2% 54.9% +15.2 18
1976-02-15 Torino W 2-1 1678 1812 33.4% 36.5% 30.1% +9.5 17
1976-02-15 @ Perugia L 1-2 1812 1678 30.1% 36.5% 33.4% -9.5 25
1976-02-15 Cesena D 2-2 1729 1682 53.4% 34.7% 11.9% -2.0 16
1976-02-15 @ Roma D 2-2 1682 1729 11.9% 34.7% 53.4% +2.0 20
1976-02-15 AC Milan L 0-1 1588 1781 25.6% 35.8% 38.6% -9.0 12
1976-02-15 @ Sampdoria W 1-0 1781 1588 38.6% 35.8% 25.6% +9.0 22
1976-02-22 Bologna W 3-1 1790 1701 56.9% 33.4% 9.7% +7.0 24
1976-02-22 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1701 1790 9.7% 33.4% 56.9% -7.1 18
1976-02-22 Inter Milan D 0-0 1537 1733 25.2% 35.7% 39.1% +0.9 8
1976-02-22 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1733 1537 39.1% 35.7% 25.2% -0.9 22
1976-02-22 Napoli L 0-1 1684 1761 40.6% 36.6% 22.8% -12.5 20
1976-02-22 @ Cesena W 1-0 1761 1684 22.8% 36.6% 40.6% +12.5 23
1976-02-22 Sampdoria D 0-0 1582 1579 49.4% 35.7% 14.9% -2.4 9
1976-02-22 @ Como D 0-0 1579 1582 14.9% 35.7% 49.4% +2.4 13
1976-02-22 Juventus D 1-1 1726 1879 30.7% 36.4% 32.9% +0.1 19
1976-02-22 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1879 1726 32.9% 36.4% 30.7% -0.1 30
1976-02-22 Roma L 0-1 1616 1727 36.3% 36.6% 27.1% -11.5 12
1976-02-22 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1727 1616 27.1% 36.6% 36.3% +11.5 18
1976-02-22 Perugia W 1-0 1655 1688 45.6% 36.3% 18.1% +7.2 14
1976-02-22 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1688 1655 18.1% 36.3% 45.6% -7.2 17
1976-02-22 Ascoli W 3-1 1802 1592 65.7% 28.7% 5.6% +3.9 27
1976-02-22 @ Torino L 1-3 1592 1802 5.6% 28.7% 65.7% -3.9 14
1976-02-28 AC Milan L 0-1 1588 1797 23.7% 35.4% 40.8% -8.5 14
1976-02-28 @ Ascoli W 1-0 1797 1588 40.8% 35.4% 23.7% +8.5 26
1976-02-28 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1694 1662 52.0% 35.1% 12.9% +5.6 20
1976-02-28 @ Bologna L 0-1 1662 1694 12.9% 35.1% 52.0% -5.6 14
1976-02-28 Torino W 1-0 1732 1806 41.0% 36.6% 22.4% +8.4 24
1976-02-28 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1806 1732 22.4% 36.6% 41.0% -8.4 27
1976-02-28 Cagliari W 1-0 1878 1538 74.0% 22.7% 3.3% +1.2 32
1976-02-28 @ Juventus L 0-1 1538 1878 3.3% 22.7% 74.0% -1.2 8
1976-02-28 Hellas Verona L 0-1 1773 1604 62.8% 30.5% 6.7% -18.0 23
1976-02-28 @ Napoli W 1-0 1604 1773 6.7% 30.5% 62.8% +18.0 14
1976-02-28 Fiorentina W 2-1 1681 1726 44.3% 36.4% 19.3% +7.1 19
1976-02-28 @ Perugia L 1-2 1726 1681 19.3% 36.4% 44.3% -7.1 19
1976-02-28 Como W 2-1 1739 1580 62.1% 30.9% 7.0% +2.9 20
1976-02-28 @ Roma L 1-2 1580 1739 7.0% 30.9% 62.1% -2.9 9
1976-02-28 Cesena L 0-1 1582 1671 39.1% 36.7% 24.3% -12.1 13
1976-02-28 @ Sampdoria W 1-0 1671 1582 24.3% 36.7% 39.1% +12.1 22
1976-03-07 Roma W 1-0 1805 1741 54.8% 34.2% 11.0% +4.8 28
1976-03-07 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1741 1805 11.0% 34.2% 54.8% -4.8 20
1976-03-07 Napoli D 1-1 1537 1755 22.7% 35.2% 42.1% +1.1 9
1976-03-07 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1755 1537 42.1% 35.2% 22.7% -1.1 24
1976-03-07 Ascoli W 3-1 1683 1579 58.1% 32.9% 9.0% +6.6 24
1976-03-07 @ Cesena L 1-3 1579 1683 9.0% 32.9% 58.1% -6.6 14
1976-03-07 Perugia D 0-0 1577 1688 36.4% 36.6% 27.0% -0.6 10
1976-03-07 @ Como D 0-0 1688 1577 27.0% 36.6% 36.4% +0.6 20
1976-03-07 Bologna L 1-2 1719 1699 50.9% 35.4% 13.7% -14.2 19
1976-03-07 @ Fiorentina W 2-1 1699 1719 13.7% 35.4% 50.9% +14.2 22
1976-03-07 Inter Milan D 1-1 1622 1740 35.4% 36.6% 28.0% -0.4 15
1976-03-07 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1740 1622 28.0% 36.6% 35.4% +0.4 25
1976-03-07 Juventus L 1-2 1656 1880 22.2% 35.1% 42.7% -7.7 14
1976-03-07 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1880 1656 42.7% 35.1% 22.2% +7.7 34
1976-03-07 Sampdoria W 2-0 1798 1569 66.9% 27.9% 5.2% +4.1 29
1976-03-07 @ Torino L 0-2 1569 1798 5.2% 27.9% 66.9% -4.1 13
1976-03-14 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1572 1622 43.9% 36.4% 19.7% +14.5 16
1976-03-14 @ Ascoli L 0-2 1622 1572 19.7% 36.4% 43.9% -14.4 15
1976-03-14 Cagliari D 0-0 1713 1538 63.3% 30.2% 6.5% -4.4 23
1976-03-14 @ Bologna D 0-0 1538 1713 6.5% 30.2% 63.3% +4.4 10
1976-03-14 Como W 2-1 1741 1576 62.5% 30.6% 6.9% +2.9 27
1976-03-14 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1576 1741 6.9% 30.6% 62.5% -2.8 10
1976-03-14 AC Milan D 1-1 1887 1810 55.9% 33.8% 10.3% -3.0 35
1976-03-14 @ Juventus D 1-1 1810 1887 10.3% 33.8% 55.9% +3.0 29
1976-03-14 Torino D 0-0 1754 1802 44.0% 36.4% 19.5% -1.6 25
1976-03-14 @ Napoli D 0-0 1802 1754 19.5% 36.4% 44.0% +1.6 30
1976-03-14 Cesena W 1-0 1688 1690 48.9% 35.8% 15.3% +6.4 22
1976-03-14 @ Perugia L 0-1 1690 1688 15.3% 35.8% 48.9% -6.4 24
1976-03-14 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1737 1649 56.8% 33.5% 9.8% -3.5 21
1976-03-14 @ Roma D 0-0 1649 1737 9.8% 33.5% 56.8% +3.5 15
1976-03-14 Fiorentina D 0-0 1565 1705 32.5% 36.5% 31.0% -0.1 14
1976-03-14 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1705 1565 31.0% 36.5% 32.5% +0.1 20
1976-03-21 Napoli D 1-1 1813 1753 54.5% 34.3% 11.1% -2.9 30
1976-03-21 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1753 1813 11.1% 34.3% 54.5% +2.9 26
1976-03-21 Juventus W 2-1 1684 1884 24.7% 35.6% 39.7% +11.4 26
1976-03-21 @ Cesena L 1-2 1884 1684 39.7% 35.6% 24.7% -11.4 35
1976-03-21 Bologna W 2-1 1574 1709 33.1% 36.5% 30.4% +9.6 12
1976-03-21 @ Como L 1-2 1709 1574 30.4% 36.5% 33.1% -9.6 23
1976-03-21 Inter Milan D 0-0 1705 1744 45.0% 36.3% 18.6% -1.8 21
1976-03-21 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1744 1705 18.6% 36.3% 45.0% +1.8 28
1976-03-21 Ascoli W 3-1 1652 1587 54.9% 34.2% 10.9% +7.9 17
1976-03-21 @ Lazio Roma L 1-3 1587 1652 10.9% 34.2% 54.9% -7.9 16
1976-03-21 Cagliari W 4-1 1695 1542 61.6% 31.1% 7.2% +7.4 24
1976-03-21 @ Perugia L 1-4 1542 1695 7.2% 31.1% 61.6% -7.4 10
1976-03-21 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1565 1607 44.7% 36.4% 19.0% +14.1 16
1976-03-21 @ Sampdoria L 0-2 1607 1565 19.0% 36.4% 44.7% -14.1 15
1976-03-21 Roma W 1-0 1804 1733 55.4% 34.0% 10.6% +4.7 32
1976-03-21 @ Torino L 0-1 1733 1804 10.6% 34.0% 55.4% -4.7 21
1976-03-28 Como D 1-1 1579 1583 48.6% 35.8% 15.5% -2.1 17
1976-03-28 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1583 1579 15.5% 35.8% 48.6% +2.1 13
1976-03-28 Cesena W 5-3 1699 1695 49.5% 35.7% 14.9% +8.6 25
1976-03-28 @ Bologna L 3-5 1695 1699 14.9% 35.7% 49.5% -8.6 26
1976-03-28 Sampdoria W 5-3 1535 1579 44.4% 36.4% 19.2% +10.4 12
1976-03-28 @ Cagliari L 3-5 1579 1535 19.2% 36.4% 44.4% -10.4 16
1976-03-28 Perugia W 3-1 1593 1702 36.6% 36.6% 26.7% +15.3 17
1976-03-28 @ Hellas Verona L 1-3 1702 1593 26.7% 36.6% 36.6% -15.3 24
1976-03-28 AC Milan L 0-1 1745 1810 42.1% 36.6% 21.4% -12.8 28
1976-03-28 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1810 1745 21.4% 36.6% 42.1% +12.8 32
1976-03-28 Torino L 0-2 1873 1808 54.9% 34.2% 10.9% -30.4 35
1976-03-28 @ Juventus W 2-0 1808 1873 10.9% 34.2% 54.9% +30.4 34
1976-03-28 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1756 1660 57.4% 33.2% 9.4% +4.2 28
1976-03-28 @ Napoli L 0-1 1660 1756 9.4% 33.2% 57.4% -4.2 17
1976-03-28 Fiorentina D 2-2 1728 1703 51.4% 35.2% 13.3% -1.8 22
1976-03-28 @ Roma D 2-2 1703 1728 13.3% 35.2% 51.4% +1.8 22
1976-04-04 Napoli D 0-0 1577 1760 26.8% 35.9% 37.3% +0.7 18
1976-04-04 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1760 1577 37.3% 35.9% 26.8% -0.7 29
1976-04-04 Cagliari D 0-0 1686 1545 60.8% 31.6% 7.6% -4.1 27
1976-04-04 @ Cesena D 0-0 1545 1686 7.6% 31.6% 60.8% +4.1 13
1976-04-04 Como L 0-2 1705 1585 59.2% 32.4% 8.4% -32.4 22
1976-04-04 @ Fiorentina W 2-0 1585 1705 8.4% 32.4% 59.2% +32.4 15
1976-04-04 Juventus W 1-0 1733 1842 36.5% 36.6% 26.9% +9.4 30
1976-04-04 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1842 1733 26.9% 36.6% 36.5% -9.4 35
1976-04-04 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1656 1609 53.4% 34.7% 11.9% -2.7 18
1976-04-04 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1609 1656 11.9% 34.7% 53.4% +2.7 18
1976-04-04 Bologna D 1-1 1687 1708 46.9% 36.1% 17.0% -1.9 25
1976-04-04 @ Perugia D 1-1 1708 1687 17.0% 36.1% 46.9% +1.8 26
1976-04-04 Roma W 1-0 1569 1727 30.0% 36.3% 33.7% +10.8 18
1976-04-04 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1727 1569 33.7% 36.3% 30.0% -10.8 22
1976-04-04 AC Milan W 2-1 1839 1823 50.5% 35.4% 14.0% +5.6 36
1976-04-04 @ Torino L 1-2 1823 1839 14.0% 35.4% 50.5% -5.6 32
1976-04-11 Fiorentina W 2-1 1818 1673 61.1% 31.4% 7.5% +3.1 34
1976-04-11 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1673 1818 7.5% 31.4% 61.1% -3.1 22
1976-04-11 Sampdoria W 1-0 1710 1580 60.0% 32.0% 8.0% +3.6 28
1976-04-11 @ Bologna L 0-1 1580 1710 8.0% 32.0% 60.0% -3.6 18
1976-04-11 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1549 1653 37.3% 36.7% 26.1% +8.7 15
1976-04-11 @ Cagliari L 1-2 1653 1549 26.1% 36.7% 37.3% -8.7 18
1976-04-11 Torino L 0-1 1618 1844 21.8% 35.0% 43.1% -8.0 15
1976-04-11 @ Como W 1-0 1844 1618 43.1% 35.0% 21.8% +8.0 38
1976-04-11 Cesena D 2-2 1611 1682 41.4% 36.6% 22.0% -0.8 19
1976-04-11 @ Hellas Verona D 2-2 1682 1611 22.0% 36.6% 41.4% +0.8 28
1976-04-11 Ascoli W 2-1 1833 1578 68.7% 26.7% 4.7% +1.8 37
1976-04-11 @ Juventus L 1-2 1578 1833 4.7% 26.7% 68.7% -1.8 18
1976-04-11 Inter Milan W 3-1 1759 1742 50.7% 35.4% 13.9% +9.7 31
1976-04-11 @ Napoli L 1-3 1742 1759 13.9% 35.4% 50.7% -9.7 30
1976-04-11 Perugia L 1-2 1716 1685 51.9% 35.1% 13.0% -14.5 22
1976-04-11 @ Roma W 2-1 1685 1716 13.0% 35.1% 51.9% +14.5 27
1976-04-18 Como D 2-2 1821 1610 65.7% 28.7% 5.6% -3.1 35
1976-04-18 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1610 1821 5.6% 28.7% 65.7% +3.1 16
1976-04-18 Inter Milan W 2-0 1576 1732 30.2% 36.3% 33.5% +20.4 20
1976-04-18 @ Ascoli L 0-2 1732 1576 33.5% 36.3% 30.2% -20.4 30
1976-04-18 Hellas Verona L 0-2 1558 1611 43.5% 36.5% 20.0% -24.9 15
1976-04-18 @ Cagliari W 2-0 1611 1558 20.0% 36.5% 43.5% +24.8 21
1976-04-18 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1683 1644 52.7% 34.9% 12.4% -2.9 29
1976-04-18 @ Cesena D 0-0 1644 1683 12.4% 34.9% 52.7% +2.9 19
1976-04-18 Juventus D 1-1 1769 1835 41.9% 36.6% 21.5% -1.2 32
1976-04-18 @ Napoli D 1-1 1835 1769 21.5% 36.6% 41.9% +1.2 38
1976-04-18 Bologna D 0-0 1701 1713 47.8% 36.0% 16.2% -2.2 23
1976-04-18 @ Roma D 0-0 1713 1701 16.2% 36.0% 47.8% +2.2 29
1976-04-18 Perugia W 3-1 1576 1700 34.7% 36.6% 28.7% +16.0 20
1976-04-18 @ Sampdoria L 1-3 1700 1576 28.7% 36.6% 34.7% -16.0 27
1976-04-18 Fiorentina W 4-3 1852 1669 63.8% 29.9% 6.3% +2.4 40
1976-04-18 @ Torino L 3-4 1669 1852 6.3% 29.9% 63.8% -2.4 22
1976-04-25 Napoli W 2-0 1716 1768 43.6% 36.5% 20.0% +14.6 31
1976-04-25 @ Bologna L 0-2 1768 1716 20.0% 36.5% 43.6% -14.6 32
1976-04-25 Cagliari W 3-0 1613 1533 56.1% 33.8% 10.2% +12.4 18
1976-04-25 @ Como L 0-3 1533 1613 10.2% 33.8% 56.1% -12.4 15
1976-04-25 Cesena W 3-1 1667 1680 47.7% 36.0% 16.3% +10.9 24
1976-04-25 @ Fiorentina L 1-3 1680 1667 16.3% 36.0% 47.7% -10.9 29
1976-04-25 AC Milan D 2-2 1635 1818 26.9% 35.9% 37.2% +0.4 22
1976-04-25 @ Hellas Verona D 2-2 1818 1635 37.2% 35.9% 26.9% -0.4 36
1976-04-25 Sampdoria W 2-1 1712 1592 59.2% 32.4% 8.4% +3.5 32
1976-04-25 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1592 1712 8.4% 32.4% 59.2% -3.5 20
1976-04-25 Roma D 1-1 1836 1699 60.5% 31.7% 7.8% -3.6 39
1976-04-25 @ Juventus D 1-1 1699 1836 7.8% 31.7% 60.5% +3.6 24
1976-04-25 Torino D 1-1 1647 1855 23.9% 35.5% 40.6% +1.0 20
1976-04-25 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1855 1647 40.6% 35.5% 23.9% -1.0 41
1976-04-25 Ascoli D 1-1 1683 1596 56.7% 33.5% 9.8% -3.2 28
1976-04-25 @ Perugia D 1-1 1596 1683 9.8% 33.5% 56.7% +3.2 21
1976-05-02 Cesena W 2-1 1817 1669 61.3% 31.3% 7.4% +3.1 38
1976-05-02 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1669 1817 7.4% 31.3% 61.3% -3.1 29
1976-05-02 Juventus L 1-4 1730 1832 37.5% 36.7% 25.9% -27.1 31
1976-05-02 @ Bologna W 4-1 1832 1730 25.9% 36.7% 37.5% +27.1 41
1976-05-02 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1625 1636 48.0% 35.9% 16.1% +6.2 20
1976-05-02 @ Como L 1-2 1636 1625 16.1% 35.9% 48.0% -6.2 22
1976-05-02 Lazio Roma W 4-3 1678 1648 51.8% 35.1% 13.0% +4.9 26
1976-05-02 @ Fiorentina L 3-4 1648 1678 13.0% 35.1% 51.8% -4.9 20
1976-05-02 Inter Milan D 1-1 1680 1715 45.4% 36.3% 18.3% -1.6 29
1976-05-02 @ Perugia D 1-1 1715 1680 18.3% 36.3% 45.4% +1.7 33
1976-05-02 Napoli L 0-3 1703 1753 43.8% 36.5% 19.8% -36.3 24
1976-05-02 @ Roma W 3-0 1753 1703 19.8% 36.5% 43.8% +36.3 34
1976-05-02 Ascoli W 1-0 1589 1599 48.0% 35.9% 16.1% +6.6 22
1976-05-02 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1599 1589 16.1% 35.9% 48.0% -6.6 21
1976-05-02 Cagliari W 5-1 1854 1521 73.5% 23.1% 3.4% +3.8 43
1976-05-02 @ Torino L 1-5 1521 1854 3.4% 23.1% 73.5% -3.8 15
1976-05-09 Bologna D 0-0 1593 1703 36.4% 36.6% 26.9% -0.6 22
1976-05-09 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1703 1593 26.9% 36.6% 36.4% +0.6 32
1976-05-09 Fiorentina W 2-1 1517 1683 28.9% 36.2% 34.8% +10.5 17
1976-05-09 @ Cagliari L 1-2 1683 1517 34.8% 36.2% 28.9% -10.5 26
1976-05-09 Como W 2-0 1666 1631 52.3% 35.0% 12.7% +10.3 31
1976-05-09 @ Cesena L 0-2 1631 1666 12.7% 35.0% 52.3% -10.3 20
1976-05-09 Torino D 0-0 1630 1858 21.7% 35.0% 43.3% +1.4 23
1976-05-09 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1858 1630 43.3% 35.0% 21.7% -1.4 44
1976-05-09 Roma W 2-0 1717 1666 53.7% 34.6% 11.7% +9.7 35
1976-05-09 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1666 1717 11.7% 34.6% 53.7% -9.7 24
1976-05-09 Sampdoria W 2-0 1860 1595 69.2% 26.3% 4.5% +3.4 43
1976-05-09 @ Juventus L 0-2 1595 1860 4.5% 26.3% 69.2% -3.4 22
1976-05-09 AC Milan W 4-0 1643 1820 27.5% 36.0% 36.4% +40.9 22
1976-05-09 @ Lazio Roma L 0-4 1820 1643 36.4% 36.0% 27.5% -40.9 38
1976-05-09 Perugia W 4-0 1789 1679 58.5% 32.7% 8.8% +14.0 36
1976-05-09 @ Napoli L 0-4 1679 1789 8.8% 32.7% 58.5% -14.0 29
1976-05-16 Cagliari L 2-3 1779 1528 68.4% 26.8% 4.8% -17.0 38
1976-05-16 @ AC Milan W 3-2 1528 1779 4.8% 26.8% 68.4% +17.0 19
1976-05-16 Inter Milan L 1-2 1704 1727 46.7% 36.1% 17.2% -13.2 32
1976-05-16 @ Bologna W 2-1 1727 1704 17.2% 36.1% 46.7% +13.2 37
1976-05-16 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1621 1684 42.2% 36.6% 21.2% -0.9 21
1976-05-16 @ Como D 2-2 1684 1621 21.2% 36.6% 42.2% +0.9 23
1976-05-16 Hellas Verona D 2-2 1672 1631 52.9% 34.8% 12.3% -2.0 27
1976-05-16 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1631 1672 12.3% 34.8% 52.9% +2.0 24
1976-05-16 Juventus W 1-0 1665 1863 24.9% 35.7% 39.4% +12.1 31
1976-05-16 @ Perugia L 0-1 1863 1665 39.4% 35.7% 24.9% -12.1 43
1976-05-16 Ascoli D 1-1 1657 1592 54.9% 34.2% 10.9% -2.9 25
1976-05-16 @ Roma D 1-1 1592 1657 10.9% 34.2% 54.9% +2.9 23
1976-05-16 Napoli W 2-1 1592 1803 23.5% 35.4% 41.1% +11.7 24
1976-05-16 @ Sampdoria L 1-2 1803 1592 41.1% 35.4% 23.5% -11.7 36
1976-05-16 Cesena D 1-1 1856 1677 63.5% 30.0% 6.4% -4.0 45
1976-05-16 @ Torino D 1-1 1677 1856 6.4% 30.0% 63.5% +4.0 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1976-05-16 4.75% Cagliari 1528 3 @ AC Milan 1779 2
2 1976-02-28 6.72% Hellas Verona 1604 1 @ Napoli 1773 0
3 1976-04-04 8.39% Como 1585 2 @ Fiorentina 1705 0
4 1975-11-16 10.38% Sampdoria 1622 1 @ Fiorentina 1696 0
5 1976-02-15 10.88% Fiorentina 1711 2 @ Napoli 1776 1
6 1976-03-28 10.92% Torino 1808 2 @ Juventus 1873 0
7 1976-04-11 12.96% Perugia 1685 2 @ Roma 1716 1
8 1976-03-07 13.69% Bologna 1699 2 @ Fiorentina 1719 1
9 1976-01-18 14.69% Fiorentina 1678 2 @ Lazio Roma 1684 1
10 1975-12-21 16.84% AC Milan 1721 1 @ Fiorentina 1701 0
11 1976-02-09 16.99% Inter Milan 1716 3 @ Cesena 1694 2
12 1976-05-16 17.16% Inter Milan 1727 2 @ Bologna 1704 1
13 1975-12-21 17.30% Roma 1705 1 @ Perugia 1681 0
14 1975-12-14 18.32% Torino 1769 2 @ AC Milan 1734 1
15 1975-12-14 18.76% Fiorentina 1688 1 @ Como 1648 0
16 1975-12-14 19.03% Cesena 1659 2 @ Cagliari 1616 1
17 1975-11-16 19.72% Bologna 1685 2 @ Cagliari 1636 1
18 1976-05-02 19.79% Napoli 1753 3 @ Roma 1703 0
19 1976-04-18 20.01% Hellas Verona 1611 2 @ Cagliari 1558 0
20 1976-01-12 21.01% Perugia 1664 2 @ Ascoli 1602 1
21 1976-03-28 21.36% AC Milan 1810 1 @ Inter Milan 1745 0
22 1975-11-16 21.65% Juventus 1815 1 @ AC Milan 1747 0
23 1975-12-21 21.95% Bologna 1695 1 @ Sampdoria 1624 0
24 1976-02-02 22.16% Fiorentina 1703 2 @ Hellas Verona 1631 1
25 1976-02-22 22.76% Napoli 1761 1 @ Cesena 1684 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1976-05-09 40.89 @ Lazio Roma 4 1643 27.54% AC Milan 0 1820 36.43% 36.03%
2 1976-05-02 36.26 Napoli 3 1753 19.79% @ Roma 0 1703 43.76% 36.46%
3 1976-02-09 32.55 Roma 5 1697 29.60% @ Cagliari 1 1567 33.84% 36.56%
4 1976-04-04 32.40 Como 2 1585 8.39% @ Fiorentina 0 1705 59.23% 32.38%
5 1976-03-28 30.37 Torino 2 1808 10.92% @ Juventus 0 1873 54.87% 34.20%
6 1976-05-02 27.10 Juventus 4 1832 25.87% @ Bologna 1 1730 37.47% 36.66%
7 1975-12-30 26.98 AC Milan 4 1735 26.10% @ Como 1 1631 37.24% 36.66%
8 1975-12-21 26.19 Juventus 3 1816 36.15% @ Ascoli 0 1641 27.78% 36.06%
9 1976-04-18 24.86 Hellas Verona 2 1611 20.01% @ Cagliari 0 1558 43.51% 36.48%
10 1976-01-12 23.40 Inter Milan 2 1695 23.04% @ Sampdoria 0 1615 40.32% 36.64%
11 1975-11-16 23.11 @ Como 3 1624 40.68% Inter Milan 0 1701 22.69% 36.63%
12 1976-04-18 20.40 @ Ascoli 2 1576 30.18% Inter Milan 0 1732 33.51% 36.31%
13 1976-02-28 17.98 Hellas Verona 1 1604 6.72% @ Napoli 0 1773 62.82% 30.46%
14 1975-11-02 17.50 Napoli 4 1757 24.83% @ Hellas Verona 2 1662 38.50% 36.67%
15 1976-05-16 16.99 Cagliari 3 1528 4.75% @ AC Milan 2 1779 68.42% 26.83%
16 1975-11-02 16.32 @ AC Milan 4 1729 55.91% Ascoli 0 1652 10.27% 33.82%
17 1975-11-16 16.32 Sampdoria 1 1622 10.38% @ Fiorentina 0 1696 55.72% 33.90%
18 1976-04-18 16.04 @ Sampdoria 3 1576 34.71% Perugia 1 1700 28.69% 36.60%
19 1975-10-12 15.93 @ Cesena 2 1644 40.66% Roma 0 1721 22.71% 36.63%
20 1975-12-07 15.62 @ Torino 2 1754 41.33% Juventus 0 1825 22.06% 36.60%
21 1975-12-21 15.56 @ Cesena 3 1671 51.59% Hellas Verona 0 1644 13.22% 35.19%
22 1976-03-28 15.34 @ Hellas Verona 3 1593 36.62% Perugia 1 1702 26.73% 36.65%
23 1976-02-15 15.20 Fiorentina 2 1711 10.88% @ Napoli 1 1776 54.93% 34.18%
24 1975-10-19 15.04 @ Perugia 2 1662 42.61% Lazio Roma 0 1722 20.85% 36.54%
25 1976-02-02 14.99 AC Milan 3 1769 37.95% @ Cagliari 1 1582 26.20% 35.85%