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1974-75 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Juventus

43 points · 16th Title

Last Title: 1972-73

Relegated

Varese

17 pts

Ternana · 19 pts

Vicenza · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Roma

8.18 points above expected

39 points · 30.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Varese

7.82 points below expected

17 points · 24.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Juventus Champion 30 18 7 5 43 49 19 +30 39.09 +3.91
2 Napoli 30 14 13 3 41 50 22 +28 32.84 +8.16
3 Roma 30 15 9 6 39 27 15 +12 30.82 +8.18
4 Lazio Roma 30 14 9 7 37 34 28 +6 35.21 +1.79
5 AC Milan 30 12 12 6 36 37 22 +15 32.46 +3.54
6 Torino 30 11 13 6 35 40 30 +10 33.47 +1.53
7 Bologna 30 10 12 8 32 36 33 +3 30.51 +1.49
8 Fiorentina 30 9 13 8 31 31 27 +4 31.35 -0.35
9 Inter Milan 30 10 10 10 30 26 26 0 32.45 -2.45
10 Cagliari 30 6 14 10 26 22 30 -8 27.76 -1.76
11 Cesena 30 5 15 10 25 23 35 -12 27.38 -2.38
12 Ascoli 30 6 12 12 24 14 27 -13 26.97 -2.97
13 Sampdoria 30 4 16 10 24 21 35 -14 26.30 -2.30
14 Lanerossi Vicenza 30 5 11 14 21 19 34 -15 25.25 -4.25
15 Ternana Relegated 30 4 11 15 19 19 42 -23 23.34 -4.34
16 Varese Relegated 30 3 11 16 17 19 42 -23 24.82 -7.82

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Juventus 1912 43 39.09 +3.91 88.1% 24 33 37 39 42 45 51
Napoli 1836 41 32.84 +8.16 98.9% 18 27 30 33 35 39 48
Torino 1810 35 33.47 +1.53 70.3% 18 27 31 33 36 40 47
Roma 1805 39 30.82 +8.18 99.1% 16 25 28 31 33 37 44
AC Milan 1799 36 32.46 +3.54 85.6% 17 26 30 33 35 39 48
Lazio Roma 1792 37 35.21 +1.79 72.5% 20 29 33 35 38 41 48
Fiorentina 1762 31 31.35 -0.35 51.5% 18 25 29 31 34 38 46
Bologna 1741 32 30.51 +1.49 70.0% 14 24 28 30 33 37 46
Inter Milan 1740 30 32.45 -2.45 29.9% 19 26 30 32 35 39 47
Cagliari 1692 26 27.76 -1.76 37.5% 14 22 25 28 30 34 42
Ascoli 1667 24 26.97 -2.97 25.8% 13 21 24 27 30 33 41
Cesena 1664 25 27.38 -2.38 31.2% 14 21 25 27 30 34 42
Sampdoria 1644 24 26.30 -2.30 31.5% 13 20 24 26 29 33 40
Lanerossi Vicenza 1616 21 25.25 -4.25 15.5% 9 19 23 25 28 31 40
Ternana 1573 19 23.34 -4.34 15.5% 10 17 21 23 26 30 39
Varese 1572 17 24.82 -7.82 2.5% 12 19 22 25 27 31 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM ASC BOL CAG CES FIO IM JUV LV LR NAP ROM SAM TER TOR VAR
AC Milan —
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.75
0-2-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.14
0-2-0
2.61
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
3.32
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.63
1-1-0
2.49
2-0-0
3.53
Ascoli
0-1-1
2.11
 —
0-1-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.48
0-2-0
2.56
0-1-1
2.18
1-1-0
2.13
0-1-1
1.44
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
1.64
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.30
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.74
Bologna
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.88
 —
1-1-0
2.77
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
1.91
1-1-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
3.03
0-2-0
3.24
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.10
Cagliari
0-2-0
2.17
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.42
 —
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
2.13
0-1-1
1.49
0-2-0
2.86
0-1-1
1.92
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.81
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.82
Cesena
1-0-1
2.07
0-2-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.32
1-1-0
2.53
 —
0-2-0
2.24
1-1-0
2.14
0-0-2
1.65
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
1.88
0-1-1
2.17
0-1-1
2.20
0-2-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
2.06
0-2-0
2.79
Fiorentina
0-2-0
2.57
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.96
0-2-0
2.96
 —
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
1.65
1-1-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.25
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.16
Inter Milan
0-1-1
2.76
0-1-1
3.12
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.65
 —
0-0-2
2.08
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
2.29
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.64
0-2-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
2.47
1-0-1
3.33
Juventus
2-0-0
3.14
1-1-0
3.84
0-1-1
3.35
1-1-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.65
0-1-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.16
 —
2-0-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.52
1-1-0
3.68
2-0-0
4.24
0-1-1
3.24
1-1-0
3.73
Lanerossi Vicenza
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.16
0-2-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
1.25
 —
0-0-2
1.78
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-2
2.13
0-2-0
2.55
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
1.91
0-2-0
2.68
Lazio Roma
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.30
1-1-0
3.35
1-1-0
2.91
0-0-2
2.92
1-0-1
2.14
2-0-0
3.50
 —
0-2-0
2.86
0-0-2
3.13
2-0-0
3.51
0-2-0
3.90
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.53
Napoli
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-0
3.35
0-2-0
2.35
 —
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.47
1-1-0
2.49
2-0-0
3.72
Roma
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.59
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
3.00
1-1-0
2.53
2-0-0
2.54
1-0-1
1.74
2-0-0
3.12
2-0-0
2.08
0-1-1
2.46
 —
1-1-0
3.20
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
2.93
Sampdoria
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.17
0-1-1
2.38
0-2-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.10
0-2-0
2.01
0-1-1
1.65
0-2-0
2.65
0-0-2
1.73
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.02
 —
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
1.90
1-0-1
2.80
Ternana
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
2.31
0-2-0
1.99
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-1
2.23
0-0-2
1.98
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
1.14
0-1-1
2.50
0-2-0
1.42
0-1-1
1.80
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.40
 —
1-1-0
1.64
1-1-0
2.40
Torino
0-1-1
2.71
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.78
1-1-0
3.18
1-1-0
3.15
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.76
1-1-0
1.98
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
2.44
0-1-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.75
0-2-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.62
 —
1-1-0
3.74
Varese
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.39
0-2-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
1.93
0-1-1
1.60
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-2
1.75
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.78
0-1-1
1.53
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +6.4
Allowed 0.74 -9.1
Differential 0.95 +4.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.50%12.92%5.83%1.46%1.04%0.42%39.17%
112.92%17.92%3.75%2.29%0.62%0.42%37.92%
25.83%3.75%3.33%0.83%0.42%0.21%14.37%
31.46%2.29%0.83%0.42%0.21%—5.21%
41.04%0.62%0.42%0.21%——2.29%
5+0.42%0.42%0.21%———1.04%
Total39.17%37.92%14.37%5.21%2.29%1.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 0.97 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.09 1.50
CV 1.12 1.12 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%3.33%10.00%3.33%——36.67%
110.00%20.00%3.33%———33.33%
26.67%—————6.67%
310.00%6.67%————16.67%
43.33%—3.33%———6.67%
5+———————
Total50.00%30.00%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.73 +0.50
SD 1.30 0.87 1.68
CV 1.06 1.18 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
026.67%20.00%6.67%—3.33%—56.67%
116.67%13.33%—10.00%——40.00%
23.33%—————3.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total46.67%33.33%6.67%10.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.47 0.90 -0.43
SD 0.57 1.12 1.25
CV 1.22 1.25 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%13.33%—3.33%——26.67%
113.33%20.00%6.67%3.33%——43.33%
23.33%6.67%6.67%———16.67%
3—3.33%3.33%3.33%——10.00%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%46.67%16.67%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.10 +0.10
SD 1.06 0.92 1.21
CV 0.89 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%13.33%3.33%——3.33%43.33%
16.67%20.00%10.00%—3.33%—40.00%
210.00%3.33%3.33%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%36.67%16.67%—3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.00 -0.27
SD 0.74 1.20 1.41
CV 1.01 1.20 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%10.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%—50.00%
16.67%16.67%3.33%———26.67%
2—6.67%10.00%3.33%——20.00%
3—3.33%————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%36.67%23.33%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.17 -0.40
SD 0.90 1.05 1.25
CV 1.17 0.90 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
113.33%23.33%6.67%———43.33%
26.67%3.33%6.67%———16.67%
3———————
4—3.33%—3.33%——6.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%46.67%16.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 0.90 +0.13
SD 1.07 0.80 1.07
CV 1.03 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%16.67%6.67%3.33%——50.00%
116.67%10.00%3.33%———30.00%
2—3.33%—3.33%——6.67%
3—6.67%3.33%———10.00%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total40.00%40.00%13.33%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 0.87 +0.00
SD 1.14 0.90 1.29
CV 1.31 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%————23.33%
120.00%6.67%3.33%—3.33%—33.33%
210.00%10.00%—3.33%——23.33%
33.33%3.33%————6.67%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+3.33%—3.33%———6.67%
Total60.00%26.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 0.63 +1.00
SD 1.54 1.00 1.76
CV 0.94 1.58 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%20.00%6.67%——3.33%46.67%
110.00%16.67%10.00%6.67%——43.33%
26.67%—3.33%———10.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%36.67%20.00%6.67%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.63 1.13 -0.50
SD 0.67 1.17 1.36
CV 1.06 1.03 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%——3.33%—20.00%
123.33%20.00%3.33%3.33%—3.33%53.33%
26.67%10.00%3.33%———20.00%
36.67%—————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total43.33%40.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 0.93 +0.20
SD 0.82 1.23 1.61
CV 0.72 1.32 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%3.33%————20.00%
110.00%23.33%3.33%———36.67%
216.67%—3.33%——3.33%23.33%
33.33%3.33%3.33%———10.00%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+3.33%3.33%————6.67%
Total53.33%33.33%10.00%——3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.73 +0.93
SD 1.58 1.20 1.91
CV 0.95 1.64 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%16.67%3.33%———40.00%
130.00%6.67%————36.67%
210.00%6.67%3.33%———20.00%
3———————
4——3.33%———3.33%
5+———————
Total60.00%30.00%10.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 0.50 +0.40
SD 0.96 0.68 1.04
CV 1.07 1.36 —
Max 4 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%—46.67%
110.00%26.67%—3.33%——40.00%
23.33%—3.33%—3.33%—10.00%
3————3.33%—3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%36.67%10.00%6.67%10.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.70 1.17 -0.47
SD 0.79 1.29 1.25
CV 1.13 1.10 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%16.67%———50.00%
16.67%16.67%3.33%6.67%—3.33%36.67%
23.33%3.33%3.33%—3.33%—13.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%36.67%23.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.63 1.40 -0.77
SD 0.72 1.48 1.48
CV 1.13 1.05 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%3.33%———26.67%
113.33%20.00%3.33%———36.67%
23.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%——20.00%
3—6.67%3.33%3.33%——13.33%
4———————
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total30.00%46.67%16.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.00 +0.33
SD 1.21 0.87 1.18
CV 0.91 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%20.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%—56.67%
1—26.67%—3.33%3.33%—33.33%
23.33%—————3.33%
3—3.33%————3.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%16.67%10.00%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.63 1.40 -0.77
SD 0.96 1.10 1.65
CV 1.52 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Roma 39 30.82 +8.18
2 Napoli 41 32.84 +8.16
3 Juventus 43 39.09 +3.91
4 AC Milan 36 32.46 +3.54
5 Lazio Roma 37 35.21 +1.79

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Varese 17 24.82 -7.82
2 Ternana 19 23.34 -4.34
3 Lanerossi Vicenza 21 25.25 -4.25
4 Ascoli 24 26.97 -2.97
5 Inter Milan 30 32.45 -2.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Roma 6 Nov 24 – Jan 5 1 in 937
2 Juventus 5 Oct 20 – Nov 24 1 in 142
3 Torino 3 Jan 26 – Feb 9 1 in 21
4 Cagliari 2 Feb 16 – Feb 23 1 in 12
5 AC Milan 2 Oct 20 – Oct 27 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sampdoria 4 Feb 2 – Feb 23 1 in 58
2 Lanerossi Vicenza 3 Dec 15 – Jan 5 1 in 43
3 Ascoli 4 Nov 4 – Dec 1 1 in 41
4 Inter Milan 2 Feb 16 – Feb 23 1 in 40
5 Ternana 5 Apr 13 – May 18 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sampdoria 10 Mar 1 – May 11 1 in 232
2 Roma 13 Feb 16 – May 18 1 in 115
3 Ascoli 8 Feb 16 – Apr 6 1 in 64
4 Cagliari 9 Feb 16 – Apr 13 1 in 56
5 AC Milan 9 Oct 13 – Dec 15 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sampdoria 12 Oct 13 – Jan 12 1 in 41
2 Fiorentina 7 Dec 1 – Jan 26 1 in 28
3 Cagliari 11 Mar 1 – May 18 1 in 28
4 Varese 13 Feb 16 – May 18 1 in 27
5 Cesena 10 Jan 12 – Mar 23 1 in 26

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Juventus59.98%18.97%8.82%4.96%2.91%1.99%0.98%0.56%0.35%0.26%0.13%0.04%0.02%0.02%0.01%—
Napoli5.80%12.35%13.26%12.82%11.24%9.63%8.24%7.21%5.70%4.71%3.31%2.46%1.61%0.97%0.55%0.14%
Roma1.76%5.24%6.60%8.69%9.67%10.44%10.29%9.66%9.21%8.06%6.65%5.07%3.79%2.50%1.70%0.67%
Lazio Roma13.36%21.08%16.69%12.72%9.80%7.60%6.18%4.47%2.87%2.09%1.53%0.83%0.40%0.25%0.11%0.02%
AC Milan4.37%10.07%11.18%12.06%11.23%11.37%9.51%7.79%6.32%5.16%3.78%2.89%2.00%1.24%0.69%0.34%
Torino6.79%13.09%14.13%12.64%12.09%9.28%8.65%7.32%5.52%3.85%2.53%1.80%1.23%0.66%0.34%0.08%
Bologna1.17%3.65%6.13%7.36%8.37%9.39%9.73%10.96%10.19%8.94%7.71%5.90%4.49%3.12%1.90%0.99%
Fiorentina2.32%5.02%7.94%9.18%10.43%10.76%10.22%9.91%8.85%7.09%6.49%4.27%3.33%2.24%1.36%0.59%
Inter Milan3.66%8.02%10.26%11.38%11.30%10.88%10.58%8.84%7.56%5.82%4.49%3.07%1.99%1.24%0.72%0.19%
Cagliari0.32%0.87%1.59%2.22%3.54%4.71%6.52%7.66%9.32%10.18%11.06%10.65%10.16%9.72%6.89%4.59%
Cesena0.16%0.63%1.10%2.01%2.89%3.99%5.45%6.78%8.16%10.41%10.75%11.43%11.76%10.29%8.72%5.47%
Ascoli0.13%0.56%0.99%1.57%2.48%3.59%4.75%6.39%7.81%8.93%10.89%11.72%11.86%11.49%10.00%6.84%
Sampdoria0.09%0.24%0.65%1.27%1.83%2.84%3.71%4.44%7.01%8.68%9.79%12.00%12.46%12.92%12.35%9.72%
Lanerossi Vicenza0.02%0.11%0.36%0.44%1.14%1.69%2.34%3.30%4.74%6.30%8.62%11.24%13.25%15.37%15.87%15.21%
Ternana0.02%0.02%0.11%0.19%0.30%0.56%1.02%1.60%2.55%3.31%4.96%6.96%9.75%13.62%20.40%34.63%
Varese0.05%0.08%0.19%0.49%0.78%1.28%1.83%3.11%3.84%6.21%7.31%9.67%11.90%14.35%18.39%20.52%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+28.33%
Strong Edge
44.58%39.17%16.25%
Elo Value
Home Edge
198 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0101.21500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.50 goals
Neutral
-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
60%
Juventus, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.02 * Some Luck: 3.02 to 4.53 * Lucky: 4.53 to 6.05 * Wild Swing: 6.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.06 * Close: 2.06 to 3.09 * Off: 3.09 to 4.12 * Way Off: 4.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.32 * A Surprise: 1.32 to 2.11 * Several Surprises: 2.11 to 2.9 * Many Surprises: 2.9 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.30 points
Some Luck
03.789
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Pinpoint
02.586
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.07%
Roma
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
2.48%
Varese
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 3
As Expected
01.33

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.47
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
75%
Very Frequent
0%68%100%
Blowouts
Expected 10%
8%
Occasional
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.30
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.37
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.070
Well Within Noise
00.1060.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Juventus 99.97% 0.03%
Lazio Roma 99.62% 0.38%
Torino 98.92% 1.08%
Napoli 98.34% 1.66%
Inter Milan 97.85% 2.15%
AC Milan 97.73% 2.27%
Fiorentina 95.81% 4.19%
Roma 95.13% 4.87%
Bologna 93.99% 6.01%
Cagliari 78.80% 21.20%
Cesena 75.52% 24.48%
Ascoli 71.67% 28.33%
Sampdoria 65.01% 34.99%
Lanerossi Vicenza 53.55% 46.45%
Varese 46.74% 53.26%
Ternana 31.35% 68.65%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1974-09-30 Sampdoria D 0-0 1748 1692 52.3% 38.3% 9.4% -2.8 1
1974-09-30 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1692 1748 9.4% 38.3% 52.3% +2.8 1
1974-09-30 Juventus W 2-1 1716 1843 33.2% 41.5% 25.3% +7.7 2
1974-09-30 @ Bologna L 1-2 1843 1716 25.3% 41.5% 33.2% -7.7 0
1974-09-30 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1706 1662 51.2% 38.8% 10.0% -2.6 1
1974-09-30 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1662 1706 10.0% 38.8% 51.2% +2.7 1
1974-09-30 Cesena W 2-1 1809 1700 56.6% 36.0% 7.3% +3.0 2
1974-09-30 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1700 1809 7.3% 36.0% 56.6% -3.0 0
1974-09-30 Ascoli W 3-1 1744 1711 50.3% 39.2% 10.5% +7.4 2
1974-09-30 @ Napoli L 1-3 1711 1744 10.5% 39.2% 50.3% -7.4 0
1974-09-30 Fiorentina L 0-1 1632 1754 33.8% 41.5% 24.7% -9.8 0
1974-09-30 @ Ternana W 1-0 1754 1632 24.7% 41.5% 33.8% +9.8 2
1974-09-30 Roma W 1-0 1761 1718 51.2% 38.8% 10.0% +4.3 2
1974-09-30 @ Torino L 0-1 1718 1761 10.0% 38.8% 51.2% -4.3 0
1974-09-30 Inter Milan W 2-0 1653 1777 33.5% 41.5% 25.0% +15.3 2
1974-09-30 @ Varese L 0-2 1777 1653 25.0% 41.5% 33.5% -15.3 0
1974-10-06 Torino D 1-1 1704 1766 41.0% 41.3% 17.7% -1.2 1
1974-10-06 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1766 1704 17.7% 41.3% 41.0% +1.2 3
1974-10-06 Ternana W 2-1 1697 1623 53.8% 37.6% 8.6% +3.5 2
1974-10-06 @ Cesena L 1-2 1623 1697 8.6% 37.6% 53.8% -3.6 0
1974-10-06 Bologna W 1-0 1764 1724 51.0% 38.9% 10.1% +4.4 4
1974-10-06 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1724 1764 10.1% 38.9% 51.0% -4.4 2
1974-10-06 Cagliari W 4-1 1762 1703 52.6% 38.2% 9.2% +9.3 2
1974-10-06 @ Inter Milan L 1-4 1703 1762 9.2% 38.2% 52.6% -9.3 1
1974-10-06 AC Milan W 2-1 1835 1745 55.1% 36.9% 8.0% +3.3 2
1974-10-06 @ Juventus L 1-2 1745 1835 8.0% 36.9% 55.1% -3.3 1
1974-10-06 Napoli D 0-0 1714 1751 43.6% 41.0% 15.4% -1.7 1
1974-10-06 @ Roma D 0-0 1751 1714 15.4% 41.0% 43.6% +1.7 3
1974-10-06 Varese W 1-0 1695 1668 49.8% 39.4% 10.9% +4.6 3
1974-10-06 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1668 1695 10.9% 39.4% 49.8% -4.6 2
1974-10-06 Lazio Roma L 1-2 1665 1812 30.5% 41.3% 28.2% -8.6 1
1974-10-06 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1812 1665 28.2% 41.3% 30.5% +8.6 4
1974-10-13 Fiorentina D 1-1 1742 1769 44.7% 40.8% 14.5% -1.6 2
1974-10-13 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1769 1742 14.5% 40.8% 44.7% +1.6 5
1974-10-13 Inter Milan D 0-0 1702 1771 40.2% 41.4% 18.4% -1.2 2
1974-10-13 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1771 1702 18.4% 41.4% 40.2% +1.2 3
1974-10-13 Roma W 1-0 1719 1712 48.0% 40.0% 12.0% +5.0 4
1974-10-13 @ Bologna L 0-1 1712 1719 12.0% 40.0% 48.0% -5.0 1
1974-10-13 Sampdoria W 3-0 1820 1700 57.5% 35.5% 7.0% +8.3 6
1974-10-13 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1700 1820 7.0% 35.5% 57.5% -8.3 3
1974-10-13 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1753 1656 55.6% 36.6% 7.8% +6.4 5
1974-10-13 @ Napoli L 0-2 1656 1753 7.8% 36.6% 55.6% -6.4 1
1974-10-13 Cagliari L 0-2 1619 1694 39.6% 41.4% 19.0% -20.6 0
1974-10-13 @ Ternana W 2-0 1694 1619 19.0% 41.4% 39.6% +20.6 3
1974-10-13 Cesena W 2-0 1767 1700 53.2% 37.9% 8.9% +7.3 5
1974-10-13 @ Torino L 0-2 1700 1767 8.9% 37.9% 53.2% -7.3 2
1974-10-13 Juventus D 0-0 1664 1838 26.8% 40.9% 32.3% +0.3 3
1974-10-13 @ Varese D 0-0 1838 1664 32.3% 40.9% 26.8% -0.3 3
1974-10-20 Varese D 1-1 1714 1664 51.8% 38.5% 9.6% -2.5 4
1974-10-20 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1664 1714 9.6% 38.5% 51.8% +2.4 4
1974-10-20 Fiorentina D 1-1 1693 1770 39.2% 41.5% 19.3% -1.0 3
1974-10-20 @ Cesena D 1-1 1770 1693 19.3% 41.5% 39.2% +1.0 6
1974-10-20 Bologna D 1-1 1773 1724 51.7% 38.6% 9.7% -2.4 4
1974-10-20 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1724 1773 9.7% 38.6% 51.7% +2.4 5
1974-10-20 Ascoli W 4-0 1838 1701 58.8% 34.7% 6.5% +10.0 5
1974-10-20 @ Juventus L 0-4 1701 1838 6.5% 34.7% 58.8% -10.0 2
1974-10-20 AC Milan L 0-1 1707 1740 44.1% 40.9% 15.0% -11.9 1
1974-10-20 @ Roma W 1-0 1740 1707 15.0% 40.9% 44.1% +11.9 4
1974-10-20 Napoli D 1-1 1692 1759 40.4% 41.4% 18.3% -1.1 4
1974-10-20 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1759 1692 18.3% 41.4% 40.4% +1.1 6
1974-10-20 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1599 1829 20.5% 39.5% 40.0% +1.0 1
1974-10-20 @ Ternana D 1-1 1829 1599 40.0% 39.5% 20.5% -1.0 7
1974-10-20 Torino W 1-0 1650 1774 33.5% 41.5% 25.0% +8.1 3
1974-10-20 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1774 1650 25.0% 41.5% 33.5% -8.1 5
1974-10-27 Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1752 1658 55.4% 36.7% 7.8% +3.4 6
1974-10-27 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1658 1752 7.8% 36.7% 55.4% -3.4 3
1974-10-27 Cesena D 0-0 1691 1692 47.2% 40.2% 12.6% -2.1 3
1974-10-27 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1692 1691 12.6% 40.2% 47.2% +2.1 4
1974-10-27 Cagliari W 2-0 1727 1712 48.7% 39.7% 11.6% +9.2 7
1974-10-27 @ Bologna L 0-2 1712 1727 11.6% 39.7% 48.7% -9.2 4
1974-10-27 Napoli D 1-1 1771 1760 48.3% 39.9% 11.8% -2.0 7
1974-10-27 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1760 1771 11.8% 39.9% 48.3% +2.0 7
1974-10-27 Inter Milan L 1-2 1828 1770 52.4% 38.3% 9.3% -13.0 7
1974-10-27 @ Lazio Roma W 2-1 1770 1828 9.3% 38.3% 52.4% +13.0 6
1974-10-27 Juventus L 1-3 1690 1848 29.0% 41.2% 29.8% -14.5 4
1974-10-27 @ Sampdoria W 3-1 1848 1690 29.8% 41.2% 29.0% +14.5 7
1974-10-27 Ternana D 1-1 1766 1600 61.1% 33.1% 5.8% -3.4 6
1974-10-27 @ Torino D 1-1 1600 1766 5.8% 33.1% 61.1% +3.4 2
1974-10-27 Roma D 0-0 1667 1695 44.5% 40.8% 14.6% -1.8 5
1974-10-27 @ Varese D 0-0 1695 1667 14.6% 40.8% 44.5% +1.8 2
1974-11-04 Sampdoria W 1-0 1703 1676 49.8% 39.4% 10.8% +4.6 6
1974-11-04 @ Cagliari L 0-1 1676 1703 10.8% 39.4% 49.8% -4.6 4
1974-11-04 Juventus L 0-1 1694 1862 27.6% 41.0% 31.4% -8.6 4
1974-11-04 @ Cesena W 1-0 1862 1694 31.4% 41.0% 27.6% +8.6 9
1974-11-04 AC Milan D 0-0 1783 1755 49.9% 39.3% 10.8% -2.5 7
1974-11-04 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1755 1783 10.8% 39.3% 49.9% +2.5 7
1974-11-04 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1762 1815 42.0% 41.2% 16.7% -1.3 8
1974-11-04 @ Napoli D 1-1 1815 1762 16.7% 41.2% 42.0% +1.3 8
1974-11-04 Ascoli W 1-0 1697 1689 48.1% 39.9% 12.0% +5.0 4
1974-11-04 @ Roma L 0-1 1689 1697 12.0% 39.9% 48.1% -5.0 3
1974-11-04 Varese W 2-0 1603 1665 41.0% 41.3% 17.7% +12.4 4
1974-11-04 @ Ternana L 0-2 1665 1603 17.7% 41.3% 41.0% -12.4 5
1974-11-04 Fiorentina W 2-1 1763 1769 46.7% 40.3% 13.0% +5.0 8
1974-11-04 @ Torino L 1-2 1769 1763 13.0% 40.3% 46.7% -5.0 7
1974-11-04 Bologna L 0-1 1655 1736 38.8% 41.5% 19.7% -10.8 3
1974-11-04 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1736 1655 19.7% 41.5% 38.8% +10.8 9
1974-11-10 Ascoli W 2-0 1758 1684 53.8% 37.6% 8.6% +7.1 9
1974-11-10 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1684 1758 8.6% 37.6% 53.8% -7.1 3
1974-11-10 Torino L 1-3 1747 1768 45.3% 40.7% 14.1% -19.9 9
1974-11-10 @ Bologna W 3-1 1768 1747 14.1% 40.7% 45.3% +19.9 10
1974-11-10 Napoli D 0-0 1686 1761 39.5% 41.4% 19.1% -1.2 5
1974-11-10 @ Cesena D 0-0 1761 1686 19.1% 41.4% 39.5% +1.2 9
1974-11-10 Varese W 2-0 1764 1652 56.9% 35.9% 7.3% +6.0 9
1974-11-10 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1652 1764 7.3% 35.9% 56.9% -6.0 5
1974-11-10 Roma W 1-0 1871 1702 61.3% 33.0% 5.8% +2.4 11
1974-11-10 @ Juventus L 0-1 1702 1871 5.8% 33.0% 61.3% -2.4 4
1974-11-10 Cagliari W 1-0 1816 1707 56.6% 36.0% 7.4% +3.2 10
1974-11-10 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1707 1816 7.4% 36.0% 56.6% -3.2 6
1974-11-10 Inter Milan D 1-1 1671 1781 35.4% 41.5% 23.1% -0.6 5
1974-11-10 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1781 1671 23.1% 41.5% 35.4% +0.6 8
1974-11-10 Ternana W 1-0 1644 1615 50.0% 39.3% 10.8% +4.6 5
1974-11-10 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1615 1644 10.8% 39.3% 50.0% -4.6 4
1974-11-24 Fiorentina L 0-1 1677 1770 37.4% 41.5% 21.1% -10.5 3
1974-11-24 @ Ascoli W 1-0 1770 1677 21.1% 41.5% 37.4% +10.5 11
1974-11-24 Ternana D 1-1 1727 1611 57.2% 35.7% 7.1% -3.0 10
1974-11-24 @ Bologna D 1-1 1611 1727 7.1% 35.7% 57.2% +3.0 5
1974-11-24 Juventus L 0-1 1781 1873 37.5% 41.5% 20.9% -10.5 8
1974-11-24 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1873 1781 20.9% 41.5% 37.5% +10.5 13
1974-11-24 Cagliari W 5-0 1762 1704 52.5% 38.2% 9.3% +17.8 11
1974-11-24 @ Napoli L 0-5 1704 1762 9.3% 38.2% 52.5% -17.9 6
1974-11-24 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1699 1819 34.1% 41.5% 24.4% +8.0 6
1974-11-24 @ Roma L 0-1 1819 1699 24.4% 41.5% 34.1% -8.0 10
1974-11-24 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1671 1649 49.4% 39.5% 11.1% -2.2 6
1974-11-24 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1649 1671 11.1% 39.5% 49.4% +2.2 6
1974-11-24 AC Milan D 1-1 1788 1765 49.4% 39.5% 11.1% -2.2 11
1974-11-24 @ Torino D 1-1 1765 1788 11.1% 39.5% 49.4% +2.2 10
1974-11-24 Cesena D 1-1 1646 1684 43.6% 41.0% 15.4% -1.5 6
1974-11-24 @ Varese D 1-1 1684 1646 15.4% 41.0% 43.6% +1.5 6
1974-12-01 Napoli D 0-0 1767 1780 46.1% 40.5% 13.4% -2.0 11
1974-12-01 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1780 1767 13.4% 40.5% 46.1% +2.0 12
1974-12-01 Roma L 1-2 1686 1707 45.3% 40.7% 14.1% -11.5 6
1974-12-01 @ Cagliari W 2-1 1707 1686 14.1% 40.7% 45.3% +11.5 8
1974-12-01 Inter Milan D 0-0 1686 1771 38.4% 41.5% 20.1% -1.0 7
1974-12-01 @ Cesena D 0-0 1771 1686 20.1% 41.5% 38.4% +1.0 9
1974-12-01 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1781 1651 58.3% 35.0% 6.7% -3.5 12
1974-12-01 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1651 1781 6.7% 35.0% 58.3% +3.5 7
1974-12-01 Torino D 0-0 1884 1786 55.8% 36.5% 7.7% -3.2 14
1974-12-01 @ Juventus D 0-0 1786 1884 7.7% 36.5% 55.8% +3.2 12
1974-12-01 Bologna W 1-0 1811 1724 54.9% 37.0% 8.1% +3.5 12
1974-12-01 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1724 1811 8.1% 37.0% 54.9% -3.5 10
1974-12-01 Sampdoria D 1-1 1614 1669 41.8% 41.2% 17.0% -1.3 6
1974-12-01 @ Ternana D 1-1 1669 1614 17.0% 41.2% 41.8% +1.3 7
1974-12-01 Ascoli W 3-1 1645 1666 45.2% 40.7% 14.1% +9.2 8
1974-12-01 @ Varese L 1-3 1666 1645 14.1% 40.7% 45.2% -9.2 3
1974-12-08 Sampdoria W 1-0 1657 1670 46.1% 40.5% 13.4% +5.5 5
1974-12-08 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1670 1657 13.4% 40.5% 46.1% -5.4 7
1974-12-08 Varese D 1-1 1720 1654 53.2% 37.9% 8.9% -2.6 11
1974-12-08 @ Bologna D 1-1 1654 1720 8.9% 37.9% 53.2% +2.6 9
1974-12-08 AC Milan D 0-0 1675 1765 37.7% 41.5% 20.8% -0.9 7
1974-12-08 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1765 1675 20.8% 41.5% 37.7% +1.0 12
1974-12-08 Ternana W 1-0 1772 1612 60.5% 33.5% 6.0% +2.5 11
1974-12-08 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1612 1772 6.0% 33.5% 60.5% -2.5 6
1974-12-08 Juventus L 2-6 1782 1881 36.7% 41.5% 21.7% -26.2 12
1974-12-08 @ Napoli W 6-2 1881 1782 21.7% 41.5% 36.7% +26.2 16
1974-12-08 Fiorentina W 1-0 1719 1777 41.4% 41.3% 17.3% +6.5 10
1974-12-08 @ Roma L 0-1 1777 1719 17.3% 41.3% 41.4% -6.5 12
1974-12-08 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1789 1815 44.8% 40.8% 14.4% -1.2 13
1974-12-08 @ Torino D 2-2 1815 1789 14.4% 40.8% 44.8% +1.2 13
1974-12-08 Cesena W 2-0 1654 1685 44.3% 40.8% 14.8% +11.0 9
1974-12-08 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-2 1685 1654 14.8% 40.8% 44.3% -11.0 7
1974-12-15 Bologna W 3-0 1766 1718 51.7% 38.6% 9.7% +11.6 14
1974-12-15 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1718 1766 9.7% 38.6% 51.7% -11.6 11
1974-12-15 Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1663 1665 47.1% 40.2% 12.7% +5.2 7
1974-12-15 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1665 1663 12.7% 40.2% 47.1% -5.2 9
1974-12-15 Inter Milan D 1-1 1771 1774 47.0% 40.2% 12.8% -1.9 13
1974-12-15 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1774 1771 12.8% 40.2% 47.0% +1.9 12
1974-12-15 Cagliari W 1-0 1907 1674 66.1% 29.4% 4.5% +1.7 18
1974-12-15 @ Juventus L 0-1 1674 1907 4.5% 29.4% 66.1% -1.7 7
1974-12-15 Cesena W 2-0 1725 1674 51.9% 38.5% 9.6% +7.8 12
1974-12-15 @ Roma L 0-2 1674 1725 9.6% 38.5% 51.9% -7.8 7
1974-12-15 Torino D 0-0 1664 1788 33.6% 41.5% 24.9% -0.5 8
1974-12-15 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1788 1664 24.9% 41.5% 33.6% +0.5 14
1974-12-15 Napoli D 0-0 1610 1756 30.6% 41.3% 28.1% -0.1 7
1974-12-15 @ Ternana D 0-0 1756 1610 28.1% 41.3% 30.6% +0.1 13
1974-12-15 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1657 1816 28.8% 41.1% 30.1% -8.8 9
1974-12-15 @ Varese W 1-0 1816 1657 30.1% 41.1% 28.8% +8.8 15
1974-12-23 Sampdoria D 2-2 1706 1664 51.1% 38.8% 10.0% -1.8 12
1974-12-23 @ Bologna D 2-2 1664 1706 10.0% 38.8% 51.1% +1.8 9
1974-12-23 Fiorentina W 2-1 1672 1769 37.0% 41.5% 21.5% +7.0 9
1974-12-23 @ Cagliari L 1-2 1769 1672 21.5% 41.5% 37.0% -7.0 13
1974-12-23 AC Milan W 1-0 1666 1778 35.1% 41.5% 23.4% +7.8 9
1974-12-23 @ Cesena L 0-1 1778 1666 23.4% 41.5% 35.1% -7.8 14
1974-12-23 Napoli D 0-0 1776 1756 49.2% 39.6% 11.2% -2.4 13
1974-12-23 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1756 1776 11.2% 39.6% 49.2% +2.4 14
1974-12-23 Juventus W 1-0 1825 1909 38.5% 41.5% 20.0% +7.1 17
1974-12-23 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1909 1825 20.0% 41.5% 38.5% -7.1 18
1974-12-23 Ascoli W 1-0 1610 1668 41.4% 41.3% 17.3% +6.5 9
1974-12-23 @ Ternana L 0-1 1668 1610 17.3% 41.3% 41.4% -6.5 7
1974-12-23 Varese W 3-1 1788 1648 59.1% 34.5% 6.5% +4.5 16
1974-12-23 @ Torino L 1-3 1648 1788 6.5% 34.5% 59.1% -4.5 9
1974-12-23 Roma L 0-2 1660 1733 39.7% 41.4% 18.9% -20.7 9
1974-12-23 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1733 1660 18.9% 41.4% 39.7% +20.7 14
1975-01-05 Varese W 4-0 1770 1643 58.0% 35.2% 6.8% +10.5 16
1975-01-05 @ AC Milan L 0-4 1643 1770 6.8% 35.2% 58.0% -10.6 9
1975-01-05 Bologna L 1-3 1661 1704 43.0% 41.1% 15.9% -19.1 7
1975-01-05 @ Ascoli W 3-1 1704 1661 15.9% 41.1% 43.0% +19.1 14
1975-01-05 Cagliari W 2-1 1674 1679 46.8% 40.3% 12.9% +5.0 11
1975-01-05 @ Cesena L 1-2 1679 1674 12.9% 40.3% 46.8% -5.0 9
1975-01-05 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1762 1832 40.1% 41.4% 18.5% -1.1 14
1975-01-05 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1832 1762 18.5% 41.4% 40.1% +1.1 18
1975-01-05 Ternana W 2-0 1901 1616 69.8% 26.4% 3.8% +2.5 20
1975-01-05 @ Juventus L 0-2 1616 1901 3.8% 26.4% 69.8% -2.5 9
1975-01-05 Torino W 1-0 1758 1793 44.0% 40.9% 15.1% +5.9 16
1975-01-05 @ Napoli L 0-1 1793 1758 15.1% 40.9% 44.0% -5.9 16
1975-01-05 Sampdoria W 1-0 1754 1666 55.0% 37.0% 8.1% +3.5 16
1975-01-05 @ Roma L 0-1 1666 1754 8.1% 37.0% 55.0% -3.5 9
1975-01-05 Inter Milan L 1-3 1639 1774 32.1% 41.4% 26.4% -15.4 9
1975-01-05 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-1 1774 1639 26.4% 41.4% 32.1% +15.4 15
1975-01-12 Napoli W 1-0 1724 1764 43.3% 41.0% 15.7% +6.1 16
1975-01-12 @ Bologna L 0-1 1764 1724 15.7% 41.0% 43.3% -6.1 16
1975-01-12 Ascoli W 2-0 1674 1642 50.2% 39.2% 10.6% +8.6 11
1975-01-12 @ Cagliari L 0-2 1642 1674 10.6% 39.2% 50.2% -8.5 7
1975-01-12 Torino W 1-0 1789 1787 47.6% 40.1% 12.3% +5.1 17
1975-01-12 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1787 1789 12.3% 40.1% 47.6% -5.1 16
1975-01-12 Fiorentina D 0-0 1904 1761 59.3% 34.3% 6.4% -3.6 21
1975-01-12 @ Juventus D 0-0 1761 1904 6.4% 34.3% 59.3% +3.6 15
1975-01-12 AC Milan W 3-0 1833 1780 52.0% 38.5% 9.5% +11.4 20
1975-01-12 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1780 1833 9.5% 38.5% 52.0% -11.4 16
1975-01-12 Cesena D 0-0 1662 1679 45.7% 40.6% 13.7% -2.0 10
1975-01-12 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1679 1662 13.7% 40.6% 45.7% +2.0 12
1975-01-12 Roma D 2-2 1614 1758 30.9% 41.3% 27.8% -0.1 10
1975-01-12 @ Ternana D 2-2 1758 1614 27.8% 41.3% 30.9% +0.1 17
1975-01-12 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1633 1624 48.2% 39.9% 11.9% -2.0 10
1975-01-12 @ Varese D 1-1 1624 1633 11.9% 39.9% 48.2% +2.0 10
1975-01-26 Ternana W 3-1 1769 1614 60.2% 33.7% 6.1% +4.2 18
1975-01-26 @ AC Milan L 1-3 1614 1769 6.1% 33.7% 60.2% -4.2 10
1975-01-26 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1634 1844 22.5% 40.0% 37.4% +10.3 9
1975-01-26 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1844 1634 37.4% 40.0% 22.5% -10.3 20
1975-01-26 Bologna D 2-2 1681 1730 42.4% 41.2% 16.4% -1.0 13
1975-01-26 @ Cesena D 2-2 1730 1681 16.4% 41.2% 42.4% +1.0 17
1975-01-26 Sampdoria L 0-2 1764 1660 56.2% 36.3% 7.5% -27.4 15
1975-01-26 @ Fiorentina W 2-0 1660 1764 7.5% 36.3% 56.2% +27.5 12
1975-01-26 Varese W 3-0 1758 1631 58.1% 35.1% 6.8% +8.0 18
1975-01-26 @ Napoli L 0-3 1631 1758 6.8% 35.1% 58.1% -8.0 10
1975-01-26 Inter Milan W 1-0 1758 1794 43.7% 41.0% 15.3% +6.0 19
1975-01-26 @ Roma L 0-1 1794 1758 15.3% 41.0% 43.7% -6.0 17
1975-01-26 Cagliari W 1-0 1781 1683 55.8% 36.5% 7.7% +3.4 18
1975-01-26 @ Torino L 0-1 1683 1781 7.7% 36.5% 55.8% -3.4 11
1975-01-26 Juventus L 1-2 1626 1900 16.6% 37.8% 45.6% -5.6 10
1975-01-26 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1900 1626 45.6% 37.8% 16.6% +5.6 23
1975-02-02 Napoli D 1-1 1644 1766 33.8% 41.5% 24.8% -0.4 10
1975-02-02 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1766 1644 24.8% 41.5% 33.8% +0.4 19
1975-02-02 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1680 1834 29.5% 41.2% 29.3% -0.0 14
1975-02-02 @ Cesena D 0-0 1834 1680 29.3% 41.2% 29.5% +0.0 21
1975-02-02 Ternana W 2-0 1737 1610 58.1% 35.1% 6.8% +5.5 17
1975-02-02 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1610 1737 6.8% 35.1% 58.1% -5.5 10
1975-02-02 Varese W 1-0 1788 1623 61.0% 33.1% 5.8% +2.4 19
1975-02-02 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1623 1788 5.8% 33.1% 61.0% -2.4 10
1975-02-02 Bologna D 0-0 1906 1731 61.8% 32.6% 5.6% -3.8 24
1975-02-02 @ Juventus D 0-0 1731 1906 5.6% 32.6% 61.8% +3.8 18
1975-02-02 Torino L 0-1 1764 1785 45.3% 40.7% 14.1% -12.2 19
1975-02-02 @ Roma W 1-0 1785 1764 14.1% 40.7% 45.3% +12.2 20
1975-02-02 AC Milan L 2-4 1688 1773 38.3% 41.5% 20.2% -15.6 12
1975-02-02 @ Sampdoria W 4-2 1773 1688 20.2% 41.5% 38.3% +15.6 20
1975-02-02 Cagliari D 0-0 1620 1679 41.3% 41.3% 17.4% -1.4 11
1975-02-02 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1679 1620 17.4% 41.3% 41.3% +1.4 12
1975-02-09 Juventus L 0-2 1789 1902 34.9% 41.5% 23.6% -18.8 20
1975-02-09 @ AC Milan W 2-0 1902 1789 23.6% 41.5% 34.9% +18.8 26
1975-02-09 Fiorentina W 1-0 1734 1742 46.6% 40.4% 13.1% +5.4 20
1975-02-09 @ Bologna L 0-1 1742 1734 13.1% 40.4% 46.6% -5.3 17
1975-02-09 Inter Milan L 0-1 1681 1791 35.3% 41.5% 23.2% -10.1 12
1975-02-09 @ Cagliari W 1-0 1791 1681 23.2% 41.5% 35.3% +10.1 21
1975-02-09 Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1834 1619 64.7% 30.4% 4.9% +1.9 23
1975-02-09 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1619 1834 4.9% 30.4% 64.7% -1.9 11
1975-02-09 Roma W 2-0 1767 1751 48.8% 39.7% 11.5% +9.2 21
1975-02-09 @ Napoli L 0-2 1751 1767 11.5% 39.7% 48.8% -9.2 19
1975-02-09 Cesena W 1-0 1604 1680 39.4% 41.4% 19.1% +6.9 12
1975-02-09 @ Ternana L 0-1 1680 1604 19.1% 41.4% 39.4% -6.9 14
1975-02-09 Ascoli W 1-0 1797 1644 60.1% 33.8% 6.1% +2.6 22
1975-02-09 @ Torino L 0-1 1644 1797 6.1% 33.8% 60.1% -2.6 10
1975-02-09 Sampdoria W 4-0 1620 1672 42.1% 41.2% 16.7% +22.7 12
1975-02-09 @ Varese L 0-4 1672 1620 16.7% 41.2% 42.1% -22.7 12
1975-02-16 Ternana W 2-0 1671 1611 52.6% 38.2% 9.2% +7.6 14
1975-02-16 @ Cagliari L 0-2 1611 1671 9.2% 38.2% 52.6% -7.6 12
1975-02-16 Torino D 1-1 1673 1800 33.1% 41.5% 25.4% -0.4 15
1975-02-16 @ Cesena D 1-1 1800 1673 25.4% 41.5% 33.1% +0.4 23
1975-02-16 AC Milan D 1-1 1737 1770 44.1% 40.9% 15.0% -1.5 18
1975-02-16 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1770 1737 15.0% 40.9% 44.1% +1.5 21
1975-02-16 Ascoli L 0-1 1801 1641 60.6% 33.5% 6.0% -15.3 21
1975-02-16 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1641 1801 6.0% 33.5% 60.6% +15.3 12
1975-02-16 Varese W 3-0 1921 1643 69.3% 26.8% 3.9% +3.7 28
1975-02-16 @ Juventus L 0-3 1643 1921 3.9% 26.8% 69.3% -3.7 12
1975-02-16 Bologna W 2-1 1742 1740 47.6% 40.1% 12.3% +4.8 21
1975-02-16 @ Roma L 1-2 1740 1742 12.3% 40.1% 47.6% -4.8 20
1975-02-16 Lazio Roma L 0-2 1649 1836 25.3% 40.6% 34.1% -15.3 12
1975-02-16 @ Sampdoria W 2-0 1836 1649 34.1% 40.6% 25.3% +15.3 25
1975-02-16 Napoli D 2-2 1617 1776 28.9% 41.1% 30.0% +0.0 12
1975-02-16 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1776 1617 30.0% 41.1% 28.9% -0.0 22
1975-02-23 Roma D 1-1 1772 1747 49.6% 39.4% 11.0% -2.2 22
1975-02-23 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1747 1772 11.0% 39.4% 49.6% +2.2 22
1975-02-23 Juventus D 0-0 1656 1925 17.1% 38.1% 44.8% +1.6 13
1975-02-23 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1925 1656 44.8% 38.1% 17.1% -1.6 29
1975-02-23 Inter Milan W 2-1 1735 1786 42.2% 41.2% 16.6% +6.0 22
1975-02-23 @ Bologna L 1-2 1786 1735 16.6% 41.2% 42.2% -6.0 21
1975-02-23 Cesena D 2-2 1735 1672 52.9% 38.0% 9.1% -1.9 19
1975-02-23 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1672 1735 9.1% 38.0% 52.9% +1.9 16
1975-02-23 Ternana D 0-0 1851 1603 67.2% 28.5% 4.3% -4.2 26
1975-02-23 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1603 1851 4.3% 28.5% 67.2% +4.2 13
1975-02-23 Sampdoria W 2-0 1776 1634 59.2% 34.4% 6.4% +5.2 24
1975-02-23 @ Napoli L 0-2 1634 1776 6.4% 34.4% 59.2% -5.2 12
1975-02-23 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1800 1617 62.3% 32.2% 5.5% +2.1 25
1975-02-23 @ Torino L 1-2 1617 1800 5.5% 32.2% 62.3% -2.1 12
1975-02-23 Cagliari L 0-1 1639 1678 43.5% 41.0% 15.5% -11.8 12
1975-02-23 @ Varese W 1-0 1678 1639 15.5% 41.0% 43.5% +11.8 16
1975-03-01 Bologna D 1-1 1690 1741 42.2% 41.2% 16.6% -1.3 17
1975-03-01 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1741 1690 16.6% 41.2% 42.2% +1.3 23
1975-03-01 Ascoli D 0-0 1674 1658 48.8% 39.7% 11.5% -2.3 17
1975-03-01 @ Cesena D 0-0 1658 1674 11.5% 39.7% 48.8% +2.3 14
1975-03-01 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1780 1847 40.4% 41.4% 18.2% +11.0 23
1975-03-01 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1847 1780 18.2% 41.4% 40.4% -11.0 26
1975-03-01 Sampdoria D 1-1 1923 1629 70.5% 25.9% 3.6% -4.0 30
1975-03-01 @ Juventus D 1-1 1629 1923 3.6% 25.9% 70.5% +4.0 13
1975-03-01 Fiorentina W 1-0 1781 1733 51.6% 38.6% 9.8% +4.2 26
1975-03-01 @ Napoli L 0-1 1733 1781 9.8% 38.6% 51.6% -4.2 19
1975-03-01 Varese W 1-0 1749 1628 57.6% 35.4% 7.0% +3.0 24
1975-03-01 @ Roma L 0-1 1628 1749 7.0% 35.4% 57.6% -3.0 12
1975-03-01 Torino W 2-1 1608 1802 24.3% 40.5% 35.2% +9.4 15
1975-03-01 @ Ternana L 1-2 1802 1608 35.2% 40.5% 24.3% -9.4 25
1975-03-01 AC Milan W 2-0 1615 1769 29.5% 41.2% 29.3% +16.8 14
1975-03-01 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-2 1769 1615 29.3% 41.2% 29.5% -16.8 22
1975-03-09 Inter Milan W 3-0 1753 1791 43.6% 41.0% 15.4% +16.5 24
1975-03-09 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1791 1753 15.4% 41.0% 43.6% -16.5 23
1975-03-09 Roma D 0-0 1660 1752 37.5% 41.5% 20.9% -0.9 15
1975-03-09 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1752 1660 20.9% 41.5% 37.5% +0.9 25
1975-03-09 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1742 1632 56.8% 36.0% 7.3% -3.0 24
1975-03-09 @ Bologna D 1-1 1632 1742 7.3% 36.0% 56.8% +3.0 15
1975-03-09 Torino D 2-2 1729 1793 40.8% 41.3% 17.8% -0.9 20
1975-03-09 @ Fiorentina D 2-2 1793 1729 17.8% 41.3% 40.8% +0.9 26
1975-03-09 Cesena W 1-0 1919 1672 67.1% 28.6% 4.3% +1.6 32
1975-03-09 @ Juventus L 0-1 1672 1919 4.3% 28.6% 67.1% -1.6 17
1975-03-09 Napoli D 1-1 1836 1785 51.9% 38.5% 9.6% -2.5 27
1975-03-09 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1785 1836 9.6% 38.5% 51.9% +2.4 27
1975-03-09 Cagliari D 0-0 1633 1689 41.6% 41.3% 17.1% -1.4 14
1975-03-09 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1689 1633 17.1% 41.3% 41.6% +1.4 18
1975-03-09 Ternana D 1-1 1625 1617 48.0% 39.9% 12.0% -2.0 13
1975-03-09 @ Varese D 1-1 1617 1625 12.0% 39.9% 48.0% +2.0 16
1975-03-16 AC Milan D 1-1 1659 1769 35.3% 41.5% 23.1% -0.6 16
1975-03-16 @ Ascoli D 1-1 1769 1659 23.1% 41.5% 35.3% +0.6 25
1975-03-16 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1690 1834 31.0% 41.3% 27.7% -0.2 19
1975-03-16 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1834 1690 27.7% 41.3% 31.0% +0.2 28
1975-03-16 Sampdoria D 0-0 1774 1631 59.2% 34.4% 6.4% -3.6 24
1975-03-16 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1631 1774 6.4% 34.4% 59.2% +3.6 15
1975-03-16 Cesena W 4-0 1788 1670 57.3% 35.6% 7.1% +11.0 29
1975-03-16 @ Napoli L 0-4 1670 1788 7.1% 35.6% 57.3% -11.0 17
1975-03-16 Juventus W 1-0 1753 1921 27.7% 41.0% 31.3% +9.2 27
1975-03-16 @ Roma L 0-1 1921 1753 31.3% 41.0% 27.7% -9.2 32
1975-03-16 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1619 1635 45.8% 40.5% 13.7% -2.0 17
1975-03-16 @ Ternana D 0-0 1635 1619 13.7% 40.5% 45.8% +2.0 16
1975-03-16 Bologna D 3-3 1794 1739 52.2% 38.4% 9.4% -1.5 27
1975-03-16 @ Torino D 3-3 1739 1794 9.4% 38.4% 52.2% +1.5 25
1975-03-16 Fiorentina D 1-1 1623 1728 35.8% 41.6% 22.6% -0.7 14
1975-03-16 @ Varese D 1-1 1728 1623 22.6% 41.6% 35.8% +0.6 21
1975-03-23 Torino W 2-0 1770 1792 45.2% 40.7% 14.2% +10.7 27
1975-03-23 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1792 1770 14.2% 40.7% 45.2% -10.7 27
1975-03-23 Napoli D 1-1 1690 1799 35.5% 41.5% 23.0% -0.6 20
1975-03-23 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1799 1690 23.0% 41.5% 35.5% +0.6 30
1975-03-23 Varese D 1-1 1659 1622 50.7% 39.0% 10.3% -2.3 18
1975-03-23 @ Cesena D 1-1 1622 1659 10.3% 39.0% 50.7% +2.3 15
1975-03-23 Ascoli D 0-0 1729 1659 53.5% 37.8% 8.8% -2.9 22
1975-03-23 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1659 1729 8.8% 37.8% 53.5% +2.9 17
1975-03-23 Inter Milan W 1-0 1911 1771 59.1% 34.4% 6.4% +2.7 34
1975-03-23 @ Juventus L 0-1 1771 1911 6.4% 34.4% 59.1% -2.8 24
1975-03-23 Roma L 0-1 1834 1762 53.6% 37.7% 8.7% -14.0 28
1975-03-23 @ Lazio Roma W 1-0 1762 1834 8.7% 37.7% 53.6% +14.0 29
1975-03-23 Bologna D 0-0 1617 1741 33.5% 41.5% 25.0% -0.5 18
1975-03-23 @ Ternana D 0-0 1741 1617 25.0% 41.5% 33.5% +0.5 26
1975-03-23 Sampdoria D 1-1 1637 1635 47.5% 40.1% 12.4% -2.0 17
1975-03-23 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1635 1637 12.4% 40.1% 47.5% +2.0 16
1975-03-31 Varese W 2-0 1662 1624 50.7% 39.0% 10.3% +8.3 19
1975-03-31 @ Ascoli L 0-2 1624 1662 10.3% 39.0% 50.7% -8.4 15
1975-03-31 Lazio Roma L 1-2 1741 1820 39.1% 41.5% 19.4% -10.2 26
1975-03-31 @ Bologna W 2-1 1820 1741 19.4% 41.5% 39.1% +10.2 30
1975-03-31 Cesena L 0-1 1768 1657 56.8% 35.9% 7.3% -14.7 24
1975-03-31 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1657 1768 7.3% 35.9% 56.8% +14.7 20
1975-03-31 AC Milan W 2-0 1799 1780 49.1% 39.6% 11.3% +9.0 32
1975-03-31 @ Napoli L 0-2 1780 1799 11.3% 39.6% 49.1% -9.0 27
1975-03-31 Cagliari D 1-1 1776 1689 54.9% 37.0% 8.1% -2.8 30
1975-03-31 @ Roma D 1-1 1689 1776 8.1% 37.0% 54.9% +2.8 21
1975-03-31 Ternana W 1-0 1637 1617 49.2% 39.6% 11.2% +4.8 18
1975-03-31 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1617 1637 11.2% 39.6% 49.2% -4.8 18
1975-03-31 Juventus W 3-2 1781 1914 32.4% 41.4% 26.2% +7.5 29
1975-03-31 @ Torino L 2-3 1914 1781 26.2% 41.4% 32.4% -7.5 34
1975-03-31 Fiorentina L 0-1 1635 1726 37.6% 41.5% 20.9% -10.5 17
1975-03-31 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1726 1635 20.9% 41.5% 37.6% +10.5 24
1975-04-06 Cagliari D 0-0 1771 1692 54.2% 37.4% 8.4% -3.0 28
1975-04-06 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1692 1771 8.4% 37.4% 54.2% +3.0 22
1975-04-06 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-1 1672 1624 51.6% 38.6% 9.8% +6.9 22
1975-04-06 @ Cesena L 1-3 1624 1672 9.8% 38.6% 51.6% -6.9 17
1975-04-06 Roma D 0-0 1737 1774 43.7% 41.0% 15.4% -1.7 25
1975-04-06 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1774 1737 15.4% 41.0% 43.7% +1.7 31
1975-04-06 Napoli W 2-1 1907 1808 55.8% 36.5% 7.7% +3.2 36
1975-04-06 @ Juventus L 1-2 1808 1907 7.7% 36.5% 55.8% -3.2 32
1975-04-06 Torino L 1-5 1830 1789 51.0% 38.9% 10.1% -40.2 30
1975-04-06 @ Lazio Roma W 5-1 1789 1830 10.1% 38.9% 51.0% +40.2 31
1975-04-06 Ascoli D 0-0 1642 1670 44.5% 40.8% 14.6% -1.8 19
1975-04-06 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1670 1642 14.6% 40.8% 44.5% +1.8 20
1975-04-06 Inter Milan D 0-0 1612 1753 31.2% 41.4% 27.4% -0.2 19
1975-04-06 @ Ternana D 0-0 1753 1612 27.4% 41.4% 31.2% +0.2 25
1975-04-06 Bologna L 1-4 1616 1731 34.6% 41.5% 23.8% -22.9 15
1975-04-06 @ Varese W 4-1 1731 1616 23.8% 41.5% 34.6% +22.9 28
1975-04-13 AC Milan D 0-0 1754 1768 46.0% 40.5% 13.5% -2.0 29
1975-04-13 @ Bologna D 0-0 1768 1754 13.5% 40.5% 46.0% +2.0 29
1975-04-13 Juventus D 1-1 1695 1910 22.1% 39.9% 38.0% +0.8 23
1975-04-13 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1910 1695 38.0% 39.9% 22.1% -0.8 37
1975-04-13 Roma D 0-0 1679 1775 36.9% 41.5% 21.5% -0.8 23
1975-04-13 @ Cesena D 0-0 1775 1679 21.5% 41.5% 36.9% +0.8 32
1975-04-13 Fiorentina W 1-0 1753 1735 49.0% 39.6% 11.3% +4.8 27
1975-04-13 @ Inter Milan L 0-1 1735 1753 11.3% 39.6% 49.0% -4.8 25
1975-04-13 Varese W 2-0 1790 1593 63.4% 31.4% 5.2% +3.9 32
1975-04-13 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1593 1790 5.2% 31.4% 63.4% -3.9 15
1975-04-13 Ternana W 7-1 1805 1612 63.1% 31.6% 5.2% +9.1 34
1975-04-13 @ Napoli L 1-7 1612 1805 5.2% 31.6% 63.1% -9.1 19
1975-04-13 Sampdoria D 1-1 1829 1640 62.8% 31.9% 5.3% -3.5 32
1975-04-13 @ Torino D 1-1 1640 1829 5.3% 31.9% 62.8% +3.5 20
1975-04-13 Ascoli W 1-0 1617 1672 41.8% 41.2% 17.0% +6.4 19
1975-04-13 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1672 1617 17.0% 41.2% 41.8% -6.4 20
1975-04-27 Cesena W 3-0 1770 1678 55.3% 36.8% 7.9% +9.5 31
1975-04-27 @ AC Milan L 0-3 1678 1770 7.9% 36.8% 55.3% -9.5 23
1975-04-27 Ternana W 1-0 1665 1602 52.9% 38.0% 9.1% +4.0 22
1975-04-27 @ Ascoli L 0-1 1602 1665 9.1% 38.0% 52.9% -4.0 19
1975-04-27 Cagliari W 2-1 1730 1696 50.4% 39.1% 10.5% +4.2 27
1975-04-27 @ Fiorentina L 1-2 1696 1730 10.5% 39.1% 50.4% -4.2 23
1975-04-27 Lazio Roma W 4-0 1909 1794 57.1% 35.7% 7.1% +11.1 39
1975-04-27 @ Juventus L 0-4 1794 1909 7.1% 35.7% 57.1% -11.1 32
1975-04-27 Inter Milan W 3-2 1814 1758 52.3% 38.3% 9.4% +3.7 36
1975-04-27 @ Napoli L 2-3 1758 1814 9.4% 38.3% 52.3% -3.6 27
1975-04-27 Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1776 1624 60.0% 33.8% 6.1% +2.6 34
1975-04-27 @ Roma L 0-1 1624 1776 6.1% 33.8% 60.0% -2.6 19
1975-04-27 Bologna W 1-0 1643 1752 35.5% 41.5% 23.0% +7.7 22
1975-04-27 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1752 1643 23.0% 41.5% 35.5% -7.7 29
1975-04-27 Torino D 0-0 1589 1826 19.9% 39.2% 40.9% +1.2 16
1975-04-27 @ Varese D 0-0 1826 1589 40.9% 39.2% 19.9% -1.2 33
1975-05-04 Ascoli D 1-1 1744 1669 53.9% 37.6% 8.6% -2.7 30
1975-05-04 @ Bologna D 1-1 1669 1744 8.6% 37.6% 53.9% +2.7 23
1975-05-04 Cesena D 2-2 1692 1668 49.5% 39.5% 11.1% -1.6 24
1975-05-04 @ Cagliari D 2-2 1668 1692 11.1% 39.5% 49.5% +1.6 24
1975-05-04 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1754 1621 58.5% 34.8% 6.6% -3.5 28
1975-05-04 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1621 1754 6.6% 34.8% 58.5% +3.5 20
1975-05-04 Fiorentina W 1-0 1783 1734 51.6% 38.6% 9.7% +4.2 34
1975-05-04 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1734 1783 9.7% 38.6% 51.6% -4.2 27
1975-05-04 Roma D 0-0 1651 1779 33.0% 41.5% 25.5% -0.4 23
1975-05-04 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1779 1651 25.5% 41.5% 33.0% +0.4 35
1975-05-04 Juventus L 0-2 1598 1920 13.4% 35.7% 50.9% -9.3 19
1975-05-04 @ Ternana W 2-0 1920 1598 50.9% 35.7% 13.4% +9.3 41
1975-05-04 Napoli D 1-1 1824 1818 47.9% 40.0% 12.1% -2.0 34
1975-05-04 @ Torino D 1-1 1818 1824 12.1% 40.0% 47.9% +2.0 37
1975-05-04 AC Milan L 0-1 1590 1780 24.9% 40.6% 34.5% -8.0 16
1975-05-04 @ Varese W 1-0 1780 1590 34.5% 40.6% 24.9% +8.0 33
1975-05-11 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1788 1787 47.4% 40.1% 12.4% -1.9 34
1975-05-11 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1787 1788 12.4% 40.1% 47.4% +1.9 35
1975-05-11 Cagliari D 0-0 1672 1690 45.6% 40.6% 13.8% -1.9 24
1975-05-11 @ Ascoli D 0-0 1690 1672 13.8% 40.6% 45.6% +1.9 25
1975-05-11 Sampdoria D 1-1 1670 1651 49.1% 39.6% 11.3% -2.1 25
1975-05-11 @ Cesena D 1-1 1651 1670 11.3% 39.6% 49.1% +2.1 24
1975-05-11 Juventus W 4-1 1730 1930 23.8% 40.3% 35.9% +23.2 29
1975-05-11 @ Fiorentina L 1-4 1930 1730 35.9% 40.3% 23.8% -23.2 41
1975-05-11 Bologna W 1-0 1820 1742 54.2% 37.4% 8.4% +3.7 39
1975-05-11 @ Napoli L 0-1 1742 1820 8.4% 37.4% 54.2% -3.7 30
1975-05-11 Ternana W 4-2 1779 1589 62.9% 31.8% 5.3% +3.1 37
1975-05-11 @ Roma L 2-4 1589 1779 5.3% 31.8% 62.9% -3.1 19
1975-05-11 Inter Milan L 2-3 1822 1751 53.6% 37.7% 8.7% -12.5 34
1975-05-11 @ Torino W 3-2 1751 1822 8.7% 37.7% 53.6% +12.5 30
1975-05-11 Varese D 1-1 1625 1582 51.2% 38.8% 10.0% -2.4 21
1975-05-11 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1582 1625 10.0% 38.8% 51.2% +2.4 17
1975-05-18 Cesena W 3-2 1738 1668 53.5% 37.8% 8.8% +3.4 32
1975-05-18 @ Bologna L 2-3 1668 1738 8.8% 37.8% 53.5% -3.4 25
1975-05-18 Torino D 0-0 1692 1810 34.3% 41.5% 24.1% -0.5 26
1975-05-18 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1810 1692 24.1% 41.5% 34.3% +0.5 35
1975-05-18 Roma L 0-2 1764 1782 45.5% 40.6% 13.9% -23.1 30
1975-05-18 @ Inter Milan W 2-0 1782 1764 13.9% 40.6% 45.5% +23.1 39
1975-05-18 Lanerossi Vicenza W 5-0 1906 1622 69.8% 26.5% 3.8% +5.8 43
1975-05-18 @ Juventus L 0-5 1622 1906 3.8% 26.5% 69.8% -5.8 21
1975-05-18 Ascoli W 1-0 1789 1670 57.4% 35.6% 7.0% +3.1 37
1975-05-18 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1670 1789 7.0% 35.6% 57.4% -3.1 24
1975-05-18 Fiorentina L 3-4 1653 1753 36.5% 41.6% 22.0% -9.0 24
1975-05-18 @ Sampdoria W 4-3 1753 1653 22.0% 41.6% 36.5% +9.0 31
1975-05-18 AC Milan L 1-3 1586 1786 23.7% 40.3% 35.9% -12.7 19
1975-05-18 @ Ternana W 3-1 1786 1586 35.9% 40.3% 23.7% +12.7 36
1975-05-18 Napoli L 0-2 1584 1824 19.6% 39.2% 41.2% -12.8 17
1975-05-18 @ Varese W 2-0 1824 1584 41.2% 39.2% 19.6% +12.8 41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1975-02-16 5.97% Ascoli 1641 1 @ Inter Milan 1801 0
2 1975-03-31 7.29% Cesena 1657 1 @ Inter Milan 1768 0
3 1975-01-26 7.51% Sampdoria 1660 2 @ Fiorentina 1764 0
4 1975-05-11 8.70% Inter Milan 1751 3 @ Torino 1822 2
5 1975-03-23 8.71% Roma 1762 1 @ Lazio Roma 1834 0
6 1974-10-27 9.31% Inter Milan 1770 2 @ Lazio Roma 1828 1
7 1975-04-06 10.09% Torino 1789 5 @ Lazio Roma 1830 1
8 1975-05-18 13.89% Roma 1782 2 @ Inter Milan 1764 0
9 1974-11-10 14.05% Torino 1768 3 @ Bologna 1747 1
10 1974-12-01 14.05% Roma 1707 2 @ Cagliari 1686 1
11 1975-02-02 14.07% Torino 1785 1 @ Roma 1764 0
12 1974-10-20 15.03% AC Milan 1740 1 @ Roma 1707 0
13 1975-02-23 15.54% Cagliari 1678 1 @ Varese 1639 0
14 1975-01-05 15.90% Bologna 1704 3 @ Ascoli 1661 1
15 1974-12-23 18.86% Roma 1733 2 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1660 0
16 1974-10-13 19.00% Cagliari 1694 2 @ Ternana 1619 0
17 1975-03-31 19.41% Lazio Roma 1820 2 @ Bologna 1741 1
18 1974-11-04 19.72% Bologna 1736 1 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1655 0
19 1975-02-02 20.21% AC Milan 1773 4 @ Sampdoria 1688 2
20 1975-03-31 20.87% Fiorentina 1726 1 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1635 0
21 1974-11-24 20.94% Juventus 1873 1 @ Inter Milan 1781 0
22 1974-11-24 21.09% Fiorentina 1770 1 @ Ascoli 1677 0
23 1974-12-08 21.73% Juventus 1881 6 @ Napoli 1782 2
24 1975-05-18 21.96% Fiorentina 1753 4 @ Sampdoria 1653 3
25 1975-01-26 22.53% @ Ascoli 1634 1 Lazio Roma 1844 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-04-06 40.17 Torino 5 1789 10.09% @ Lazio Roma 1 1830 51.04% 38.87%
2 1975-01-26 27.45 Sampdoria 2 1660 7.51% @ Fiorentina 0 1764 56.23% 36.26%
3 1974-12-08 26.18 Juventus 6 1881 21.73% @ Napoli 2 1782 36.72% 41.55%
4 1975-05-11 23.22 @ Fiorentina 4 1730 23.79% Juventus 1 1930 35.88% 40.33%
5 1975-05-18 23.08 Roma 2 1782 13.89% @ Inter Milan 0 1764 45.50% 40.61%
6 1975-04-06 22.93 Bologna 4 1731 23.82% @ Varese 1 1616 34.64% 41.54%
7 1975-02-09 22.70 @ Varese 4 1620 42.11% Sampdoria 0 1672 16.69% 41.20%
8 1974-12-23 20.69 Roma 2 1733 18.86% @ Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1660 39.71% 41.44%
9 1974-10-13 20.63 Cagliari 2 1694 19.00% @ Ternana 0 1619 39.55% 41.45%
10 1974-11-10 19.90 Torino 3 1768 14.05% @ Bologna 1 1747 45.29% 40.66%
11 1975-01-05 19.09 Bologna 3 1704 15.90% @ Ascoli 1 1661 43.03% 41.07%
12 1975-02-09 18.82 Juventus 2 1902 23.57% @ AC Milan 0 1789 34.89% 41.54%
13 1974-11-24 17.86 @ Napoli 5 1762 52.48% Cagliari 0 1704 9.28% 38.24%
14 1975-03-01 16.79 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 2 1615 29.46% AC Milan 0 1769 29.34% 41.20%
15 1975-03-09 16.50 @ AC Milan 3 1753 43.56% Inter Milan 0 1791 15.45% 40.99%
16 1975-02-02 15.59 AC Milan 4 1773 20.21% @ Sampdoria 2 1688 38.28% 41.51%
17 1975-01-05 15.41 Inter Milan 3 1774 26.44% @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1 1639 32.14% 41.42%
18 1974-09-30 15.34 @ Varese 2 1653 33.47% Inter Milan 0 1777 25.03% 41.50%
19 1975-02-16 15.33 Ascoli 1 1641 5.97% @ Inter Milan 0 1801 60.58% 33.46%
20 1975-02-16 15.29 Lazio Roma 2 1836 34.06% @ Sampdoria 0 1649 25.31% 40.63%
21 1975-03-31 14.66 Cesena 1 1657 7.29% @ Inter Milan 0 1768 56.77% 35.94%
22 1974-10-27 14.45 Juventus 3 1848 29.79% @ Sampdoria 1 1690 29.04% 41.16%
23 1975-03-23 14.02 Roma 1 1762 8.71% @ Lazio Roma 0 1834 53.58% 37.71%
24 1974-10-27 12.99 Inter Milan 2 1770 9.31% @ Lazio Roma 1 1828 52.43% 38.26%
25 1975-05-18 12.82 Napoli 2 1824 41.21% @ Varese 0 1584 19.63% 39.16%