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1973-74 Serie A Season

240 games

Final

Champion

Lazio

1st Title

Relegated

Genoa

17 pts

Foggia · 18 pts

Hellas Verona · expelled from league

Biggest Overachiever

Lazio Roma

6.56 points above expected

43 points · 36.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Genoa

8.59 points below expected

17 points · 25.59 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lazio Roma 30 18 7 5 43 45 23 +22 36.44 +6.56
2 Juventus 30 16 9 5 41 50 26 +24 37.22 +3.78
3 Napoli 30 12 12 6 36 35 28 +7 31.43 +4.57
4 Inter Milan 30 12 11 7 35 47 33 +14 33.09 +1.91
5 Torino 30 10 14 6 34 27 24 +3 32.37 +1.63
6 Fiorentina 30 10 13 7 33 32 26 +6 33.43 -0.43
7 AC Milan 30 11 8 11 30 34 36 -2 35.12 -5.12
8 Roma 30 10 9 11 29 29 28 +1 26.78 +2.22
9 Bologna 30 6 17 7 29 35 36 -1 30.54 -1.54
10 Cagliari 30 7 14 9 28 25 32 -7 28.70 -0.70
11 Cesena 30 6 15 9 27 25 28 -3 27.35 -0.35
12 Lanerossi Vicenza 30 7 12 11 26 22 37 -15 23.27 +2.73
13 Sampdoria 30 5 13 12 23 27 34 -7 24.38 -1.38
14 Foggia* Relegated 30 6 12 12 21 20 34 -14 19.14 +1.86
15 Hellas Verona* Expelled 30 8 9 13 19 28 35 -7 26.16 -7.16
16 Genoa Relegated 30 4 9 17 17 16 37 -21 25.59 -8.59

* Point deductions: Foggia (-3 pts), Hellas Verona (-6 pts)

Notes

  • Hellas Verona was automatically placed at the bottom of the table and relegated for bribery.

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Juventus 1951 41 37.22 +3.78 87.4% 20 31 35 37 40 43 51
Lazio Roma 1898 43 36.44 +6.56 97.3% 22 30 34 36 39 43 50
Inter Milan 1841 35 33.09 +1.91 73.6% 19 27 31 33 36 39 48
Torino 1818 34 32.37 +1.63 71.1% 18 26 30 32 35 39 46
Fiorentina 1803 33 33.43 -0.43 51.1% 18 27 31 33 36 40 48
AC Milan 1794 30 35.12 -5.12 11.2% 19 29 33 35 38 41 49
Napoli 1788 36 31.43 +4.57 90.9% 19 25 29 31 34 38 45
Roma 1743 29 26.78 +2.22 76.5% 13 21 24 27 29 33 41
Bologna 1740 29 30.54 -1.54 38.7% 16 24 28 31 33 37 44
Cagliari 1723 28 28.70 -0.70 47.8% 14 23 26 29 31 35 44
Cesena 1713 27 27.35 -0.35 51.7% 11 21 25 27 30 34 41
Hellas Verona 1711 19 26.16 -7.16 43.5% 12 20 24 26 29 33 41
Sampdoria 1698 23 24.38 -1.38 15.5% 11 18 22 24 27 31 40
Lanerossi Vicenza 1655 26 23.27 +2.73 80.5% 7 17 21 23 26 29 40
Foggia 1635 21 19.14 +1.86 43.4% 5 13 17 19 22 25 33
Genoa 1605 17 25.59 -8.59 1.5% 11 19 23 25 28 32 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM BOL CAG CES FIO FOG GEN HV IM JUV LV LR NAP ROM SAM TOR
AC Milan —
0-1-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.56
0-1-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-2
2.81
0-1-1
2.55
0-1-1
3.97
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.83
2-0-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.49
1-0-1
2.76
Bologna
1-1-0
2.18
 —
1-1-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.94
0-2-0
2.29
0-2-0
3.18
1-1-0
3.12
0-1-1
3.11
1-1-0
2.25
0-2-0
2.11
1-0-1
3.37
0-1-1
1.90
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.92
1-1-0
2.85
0-1-1
2.58
Cagliari
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.52
 —
0-2-0
2.67
1-0-1
2.16
1-1-0
3.00
0-1-1
2.89
0-1-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.17
1-1-0
1.73
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.61
1-1-0
2.30
Cesena
1-0-1
1.71
1-1-0
2.28
0-2-0
2.55
 —
0-2-0
2.11
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.17
0-1-1
1.77
0-2-0
2.90
0-1-1
1.90
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.10
Fiorentina
1-1-0
2.56
0-2-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.07
0-2-0
3.13
 —
0-0-2
3.50
1-1-0
3.18
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
3.72
0-2-0
2.35
0-1-1
2.77
1-1-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
2.68
Foggia
0-1-1
1.77
0-2-0
2.06
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.49
2-0-0
1.77
 —
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.51
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
1.55
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-2
1.61
1-1-0
2.10
1-0-1
2.40
0-2-0
2.33
0-2-0
1.92
Genoa
0-0-2
1.77
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.35
0-1-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.10
1-0-1
2.66
 —
1-0-1
2.39
0-2-0
2.05
0-0-2
1.58
0-2-0
2.97
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-2
1.99
Hellas Verona
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
2.12
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
1.86
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.85
 —
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
1.53
0-2-0
2.90
0-0-2
1.70
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.05
Inter Milan
2-0-0
2.40
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.67
2-0-0
3.31
0-2-0
3.17
1-1-0
3.07
 —
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
3.73
1-1-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.29
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
2.56
Juventus
1-1-0
2.67
0-2-0
3.14
0-1-1
3.56
1-1-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.09
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.70
1-1-0
3.77
2-0-0
2.94
 —
1-1-0
4.03
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
3.78
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
3.11
Lanerossi Vicenza
1-1-0
1.38
1-0-1
1.88
0-1-1
2.28
0-2-0
2.34
2-0-0
1.57
1-0-1
2.51
0-2-0
2.25
0-2-0
2.33
1-0-1
1.57
0-1-1
1.33
 —
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
1.81
Lazio Roma
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.22
1-1-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.87
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
3.60
0-1-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.57
2-0-0
3.62
 —
1-1-0
3.07
2-0-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.56
0-0-2
3.08
Napoli
0-1-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
3.17
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
3.44
0-1-1
2.15
 —
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.98
0-2-0
2.47
Roma
0-0-2
1.81
1-1-0
2.31
1-1-0
2.50
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
1.99
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
2.69
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
1.53
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
1.81
0-1-1
2.25
 —
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.09
Sampdoria
1-0-1
1.79
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.00
0-2-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.09
0-0-2
1.74
1-1-0
2.90
1-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
2.24
0-1-1
2.62
 —
0-2-0
2.16
Torino
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.55
0-2-0
3.32
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.13
1-1-0
3.44
2-0-0
2.15
0-2-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.15
0-2-0
3.07
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +6.4
Allowed 0.55 -11.4
Differential 0.87 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.83%5.21%1.88%0.42%—31.67%
110.83%20.00%8.75%1.67%0.42%0.62%42.29%
25.21%8.75%4.17%0.83%0.21%—19.17%
31.88%1.67%0.83%0.83%——5.21%
40.42%0.42%0.21%———1.04%
5+—0.62%————0.62%
Total31.67%42.29%19.17%5.21%1.04%0.62%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.04 +0.00
SD 0.95 0.95 1.31
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%3.33%———23.33%
116.67%10.00%10.00%——3.33%40.00%
26.67%13.33%6.67%10.00%——36.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%20.00%10.00%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.20 -0.07
SD 0.78 1.21 1.26
CV 0.68 1.01 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—6.67%3.33%3.33%—30.00%
1—30.00%10.00%———40.00%
23.33%3.33%10.00%———16.67%
33.33%3.33%3.33%———10.00%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total26.67%36.67%30.00%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.20 -0.03
SD 1.09 1.00 1.56
CV 0.93 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%13.33%10.00%———33.33%
110.00%33.33%—3.33%3.33%—50.00%
23.33%10.00%3.33%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total23.33%56.67%13.33%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.07 -0.23
SD 0.70 0.91 1.14
CV 0.84 0.85 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%13.33%6.67%———40.00%
16.67%23.33%6.67%3.33%——40.00%
23.33%6.67%6.67%———16.67%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%43.33%20.00%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 0.93 -0.10
SD 0.83 0.83 1.09
CV 1.00 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%————26.67%
113.33%26.67%10.00%3.33%——53.33%
23.33%6.67%————10.00%
3—3.33%3.33%———6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total33.33%50.00%13.33%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 0.87 +0.20
SD 0.98 0.78 1.06
CV 0.92 0.90 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%3.33%6.67%——43.33%
113.33%20.00%10.00%——3.33%46.67%
2—6.67%3.33%———10.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%43.33%16.67%6.67%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.13 -0.47
SD 0.66 1.14 1.25
CV 0.99 1.00 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%23.33%20.00%3.33%——53.33%
16.67%23.33%10.00%———40.00%
2—6.67%————6.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%53.33%30.00%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.53 1.23 -0.70
SD 0.63 0.73 1.06
CV 1.18 0.59 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%20.00%3.33%———33.33%
16.67%20.00%10.00%3.33%—3.33%43.33%
26.67%10.00%——3.33%—20.00%
33.33%—————3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%50.00%13.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.17 -0.23
SD 0.83 1.18 1.41
CV 0.89 1.01 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.00%6.67%3.33%——26.67%
13.33%20.00%3.33%———26.67%
26.67%10.00%6.67%———23.33%
33.33%10.00%—3.33%——16.67%
4———————
5+—6.67%————6.67%
Total20.00%56.67%16.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.10 +0.47
SD 1.41 0.80 1.66
CV 0.90 0.73 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%—6.67%———20.00%
16.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%——23.33%
216.67%10.00%6.67%3.33%——36.67%
36.67%6.67%————13.33%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total43.33%33.33%16.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.87 +0.80
SD 1.24 0.94 1.56
CV 0.74 1.08 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%6.67%10.00%3.33%—43.33%
110.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
2—13.33%3.33%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%40.00%20.00%10.00%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.23 -0.50
SD 0.74 1.07 1.38
CV 1.01 0.87 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%————16.67%
126.67%6.67%3.33%6.67%——43.33%
26.67%10.00%3.33%———20.00%
36.67%3.33%—3.33%——13.33%
43.33%—3.33%———6.67%
5+———————
Total53.33%26.67%10.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.77 +0.73
SD 1.14 1.01 1.39
CV 0.76 1.31 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%————20.00%
116.67%20.00%6.67%—3.33%—46.67%
210.00%13.33%6.67%———30.00%
3———3.33%——3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%43.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.93 +0.23
SD 0.79 0.98 1.07
CV 0.68 1.05 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%6.67%———36.67%
113.33%10.00%16.67%———40.00%
26.67%6.67%————13.33%
33.33%—3.33%3.33%——10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%30.00%26.67%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 0.93 +0.03
SD 0.96 0.91 1.19
CV 1.00 0.97 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%3.33%———30.00%
13.33%23.33%26.67%———53.33%
23.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
3——3.33%———3.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.33%40.00%36.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 1.13 -0.23
SD 0.76 0.78 0.86
CV 0.84 0.68 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%—3.33%——30.00%
120.00%23.33%3.33%3.33%——50.00%
26.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total43.33%40.00%10.00%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.90 0.80 +0.10
SD 0.71 0.89 1.06
CV 0.79 1.11 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lazio Roma 43 36.44 +6.56
2 Napoli 36 31.43 +4.57
3 Juventus 41 37.22 +3.78
4 Lanerossi Vicenza 26 23.27 +2.73
5 Roma 29 26.78 +2.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Genoa 17 25.59 -8.59
2 Hellas Verona 19 26.16 -7.16
3 AC Milan 30 35.12 -5.12
4 Bologna 29 30.54 -1.54
5 Sampdoria 23 24.38 -1.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lazio Roma 6 Dec 2 – Jan 6 1 in 264
2 Inter Milan 4 Mar 3 – Mar 24 1 in 181
3 Lanerossi Vicenza 2 Mar 10 – Mar 17 1 in 81
4 Hellas Verona 2 Apr 21 – Apr 28 1 in 32
5 Roma 3 Mar 3 – Mar 17 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AC Milan 5 Mar 10 – Apr 7 1 in 2,607
2 Genoa 6 Apr 15 – May 19 1 in 204
3 Fiorentina 2 Apr 21 – Apr 28 1 in 47
4 Torino 2 Feb 17 – Mar 3 1 in 24
5 Hellas Verona 3 Oct 7 – Oct 28 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bologna 11 Oct 14 – Jan 6 1 in 38
2 Napoli 8 Oct 7 – Dec 9 1 in 24
3 Foggia 7 Nov 25 – Jan 6 1 in 22
4 Fiorentina 7 Nov 4 – Dec 23 1 in 19
5 Torino 9 Mar 24 – May 19 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Napoli 9 Mar 17 – May 12 1 in 47
2 AC Milan 8 Mar 10 – Apr 28 1 in 39
3 Torino 8 Oct 28 – Dec 23 1 in 38
4 Sampdoria 10 Dec 2 – Feb 3 1 in 33
5 Foggia 12 Mar 3 – May 19 1 in 26

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Lazio Roma27.46%22.00%15.96%11.51%7.83%6.03%3.55%2.60%1.41%0.84%0.45%0.25%0.09%0.01%0.01%—
Juventus35.97%22.80%14.75%9.62%6.45%4.13%2.78%1.44%0.96%0.65%0.25%0.14%0.03%0.02%—0.01%
Napoli2.58%5.35%7.42%10.27%11.77%11.68%11.36%11.11%8.71%6.61%4.86%3.52%2.55%1.20%0.83%0.18%
Inter Milan6.50%10.36%12.49%13.40%12.95%12.01%9.78%7.16%5.89%3.69%2.51%1.64%0.85%0.54%0.20%0.03%
Torino4.28%7.04%9.71%11.62%11.95%11.89%11.65%9.52%7.51%5.39%4.11%2.74%1.41%0.83%0.28%0.07%
Fiorentina7.09%10.11%12.85%13.65%13.66%11.54%9.52%7.51%5.24%3.71%2.31%1.43%0.81%0.37%0.16%0.04%
AC Milan13.61%16.18%15.98%13.08%11.67%9.30%7.08%5.12%3.35%2.26%1.23%0.55%0.31%0.19%0.07%0.02%
Roma0.12%0.59%0.91%1.91%2.73%3.85%5.74%7.73%10.05%12.04%12.29%12.05%11.41%9.82%6.21%2.55%
Bologna1.65%3.17%5.23%6.89%8.65%10.71%11.74%12.47%10.94%8.62%7.45%5.39%3.33%2.37%1.08%0.31%
Cagliari0.41%1.13%2.14%3.64%5.10%7.21%8.67%10.55%11.84%11.98%10.87%9.46%7.73%5.27%3.07%0.93%
Cesena0.18%0.66%1.15%2.14%3.06%4.83%6.68%8.44%10.57%12.33%12.17%11.29%10.31%8.42%5.94%1.83%
Lanerossi Vicenza—0.04%0.05%0.12%0.34%0.57%1.17%2.13%3.32%4.75%6.76%9.96%13.76%17.31%24.13%15.59%
Sampdoria0.04%0.10%0.22%0.37%0.75%1.31%2.31%3.30%5.20%7.27%10.48%12.51%14.53%16.72%16.08%8.81%
Foggia————0.01%0.03%0.11%0.25%0.38%0.75%1.67%2.81%5.40%9.60%19.88%59.11%
Hellas Verona0.09%0.32%0.63%1.07%1.77%2.89%4.60%6.11%8.20%10.25%11.77%13.55%13.30%12.28%9.06%4.11%
Genoa0.02%0.15%0.51%0.71%1.31%2.02%3.26%4.56%6.43%8.86%10.82%12.71%14.18%15.05%13.00%6.41%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+29.17%
Strong Edge
45.42%38.33%16.25%
Elo Value
Home Edge
244 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0104.37800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
124610
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.080.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.04 * Some Luck: 3.04 to 4.56 * Lucky: 4.56 to 6.09 * Wild Swing: 6.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.78 * Close: 1.78 to 2.68 * Off: 2.68 to 3.57 * Way Off: 3.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.13 * A Surprise: 1.13 to 1.8 * Several Surprises: 1.8 to 2.48 * Many Surprises: 2.48 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.72 points
Some Luck
03.8010
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
02.235
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
97.27%
Lazio Roma
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.54%
Genoa
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 3
Several Surprises
01.13

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.35
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
79%
Very Frequent
0%75%100%
Blowouts
Expected 6%
7%
Rare
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.96
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.50
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.076
Well Within Noise
00.1040.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lazio Roma 99.98% 0.02%
Juventus 99.97% 0.03%
AC Milan 99.72% 0.28%
Fiorentina 99.43% 0.57%
Inter Milan 99.23% 0.77%
Torino 98.82% 1.18%
Napoli 97.79% 2.21%
Bologna 96.24% 3.76%
Cagliari 90.73% 9.27%
Cesena 83.81% 16.19%
Roma 81.42% 18.58%
Hellas Verona 74.55% 25.45%
Genoa 65.54% 34.46%
Sampdoria 58.39% 41.61%
Lanerossi Vicenza 42.97% 57.03%
Foggia 11.41% 88.59%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1973-10-07 Napoli D 0-0 1751 1743 48.9% 39.0% 12.0% -2.6 1
1973-10-07 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1743 1751 12.0% 39.0% 48.9% +2.6 1
1973-10-07 Torino D 0-0 1707 1807 37.6% 40.7% 21.7% -1.0 1
1973-10-07 @ Cesena D 0-0 1807 1707 21.7% 40.7% 37.6% +1.0 1
1973-10-07 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1799 1716 55.5% 36.3% 8.3% +3.8 2
1973-10-07 @ Fiorentina L 1-2 1716 1799 8.3% 36.3% 55.5% -3.8 0
1973-10-07 Genoa D 0-0 1786 1723 53.8% 37.1% 9.1% -3.3 1
1973-10-07 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1723 1786 9.1% 37.1% 53.8% +3.3 1
1973-10-07 Foggia W 2-1 1873 1665 65.0% 30.0% 5.0% +2.0 2
1973-10-07 @ Juventus L 1-2 1665 1873 5.0% 30.0% 65.0% -2.0 0
1973-10-07 Bologna W 2-1 1706 1764 42.5% 40.4% 17.2% +6.8 2
1973-10-07 @ Roma L 1-2 1764 1706 17.2% 40.4% 42.5% -6.8 0
1973-10-07 AC Milan W 3-2 1715 1873 30.1% 40.3% 29.5% +8.9 2
1973-10-07 @ Sampdoria L 2-3 1873 1715 29.5% 40.3% 30.1% -8.9 0
1973-10-07 Lazio Roma L 0-3 1668 1820 30.8% 40.4% 28.8% -28.0 0
1973-10-07 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-0 1820 1668 28.8% 40.4% 30.8% +28.0 2
1973-10-14 Cesena W 1-0 1864 1706 61.3% 32.7% 6.0% +2.8 2
1973-10-14 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1706 1864 6.0% 32.7% 61.3% -2.8 1
1973-10-14 Lanerossi Vicenza W 4-0 1757 1639 58.2% 34.7% 7.1% +12.1 2
1973-10-14 @ Bologna L 0-4 1639 1757 7.1% 34.7% 58.2% -12.1 0
1973-10-14 Cagliari D 1-1 1663 1748 39.3% 40.6% 20.1% -1.1 1
1973-10-14 @ Foggia D 1-1 1748 1663 20.1% 40.6% 39.3% +1.1 2
1973-10-14 Fiorentina L 0-1 1726 1803 40.3% 40.6% 19.2% -12.4 1
1973-10-14 @ Genoa W 1-0 1803 1726 19.2% 40.6% 40.3% +12.4 4
1973-10-14 Inter Milan L 1-3 1712 1783 41.0% 40.5% 18.5% -20.5 0
1973-10-14 @ Hellas Verona W 3-1 1783 1712 18.5% 40.5% 41.0% +20.5 3
1973-10-14 Sampdoria W 1-0 1848 1724 58.7% 34.4% 6.9% +3.3 4
1973-10-14 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1724 1848 6.9% 34.4% 58.7% -3.3 2
1973-10-14 Juventus W 2-0 1746 1875 34.0% 40.6% 25.4% +17.3 3
1973-10-14 @ Napoli L 0-2 1875 1746 25.4% 40.6% 34.0% -17.3 2
1973-10-14 Roma W 1-0 1808 1713 56.4% 35.8% 7.9% +3.8 3
1973-10-14 @ Torino L 0-1 1713 1808 7.9% 35.8% 56.4% -3.8 2
1973-10-28 Torino D 1-1 1749 1811 42.0% 40.4% 17.6% -1.4 3
1973-10-28 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1811 1749 17.6% 40.4% 42.0% +1.4 4
1973-10-28 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1703 1692 49.3% 38.9% 11.8% +5.5 3
1973-10-28 @ Cesena L 0-1 1692 1703 11.8% 38.9% 49.3% -5.5 0
1973-10-28 Foggia L 0-1 1816 1662 61.0% 32.9% 6.2% -17.2 4
1973-10-28 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1662 1816 6.2% 32.9% 61.0% +17.2 3
1973-10-28 Napoli D 2-2 1804 1763 51.9% 38.0% 10.2% -2.0 4
1973-10-28 @ Inter Milan D 2-2 1763 1804 10.2% 38.0% 51.9% +2.0 4
1973-10-28 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1858 1852 48.8% 39.1% 12.2% +9.1 4
1973-10-28 @ Juventus L 1-3 1852 1858 12.2% 39.1% 48.8% -9.1 4
1973-10-28 AC Milan L 1-2 1709 1867 30.1% 40.3% 29.5% -9.5 2
1973-10-28 @ Roma W 2-1 1867 1709 29.5% 40.3% 30.1% +9.5 4
1973-10-28 Bologna D 0-0 1721 1769 43.5% 40.2% 16.3% -1.8 3
1973-10-28 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1769 1721 16.3% 40.2% 43.5% +1.8 3
1973-10-28 Genoa D 1-1 1627 1714 39.2% 40.6% 20.2% -1.1 1
1973-10-28 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1714 1627 20.2% 40.6% 39.2% +1.1 2
1973-11-04 Cagliari D 2-2 1876 1748 59.0% 34.2% 6.8% -2.6 5
1973-11-04 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1748 1876 6.8% 34.2% 59.0% +2.6 4
1973-11-04 Juventus D 0-0 1771 1867 38.1% 40.6% 21.3% -1.1 4
1973-11-04 @ Bologna D 0-0 1867 1771 21.3% 40.6% 38.1% +1.1 5
1973-11-04 Cesena D 1-1 1679 1709 45.3% 39.9% 14.8% -1.9 4
1973-11-04 @ Foggia D 1-1 1709 1679 14.8% 39.9% 45.3% +1.8 4
1973-11-04 Roma W 2-1 1715 1700 49.6% 38.8% 11.6% +5.1 4
1973-11-04 @ Genoa L 1-2 1700 1715 11.6% 38.8% 49.6% -5.1 2
1973-11-04 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1686 1626 53.5% 37.2% 9.2% -2.9 1
1973-11-04 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1626 1686 9.2% 37.2% 53.5% +2.9 2
1973-11-04 Fiorentina D 0-0 1843 1798 52.2% 37.8% 10.0% -3.1 5
1973-11-04 @ Lazio Roma D 0-0 1798 1843 10.0% 37.8% 52.2% +3.1 5
1973-11-04 Sampdoria W 1-0 1765 1719 52.4% 37.8% 9.9% +4.7 6
1973-11-04 @ Napoli L 0-1 1719 1765 9.9% 37.8% 52.4% -4.7 3
1973-11-04 Inter Milan D 2-2 1813 1802 49.3% 38.9% 11.8% -1.8 5
1973-11-04 @ Torino D 2-2 1802 1813 11.8% 38.9% 49.3% +1.8 5
1973-11-18 Bologna D 0-0 1751 1770 46.4% 39.7% 13.9% -2.2 5
1973-11-18 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1770 1751 13.9% 39.7% 46.4% +2.2 5
1973-11-18 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1711 1840 34.0% 40.6% 25.4% -0.5 5
1973-11-18 @ Cesena D 0-0 1840 1711 25.4% 40.6% 34.0% +0.5 6
1973-11-18 Napoli D 1-1 1801 1770 51.1% 38.3% 10.6% -2.6 6
1973-11-18 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1770 1801 10.6% 38.3% 51.1% +2.6 7
1973-11-18 Foggia W 5-1 1803 1677 58.9% 34.3% 6.9% +9.7 7
1973-11-18 @ Inter Milan L 1-5 1677 1803 6.9% 34.3% 58.9% -9.7 4
1973-11-18 Genoa W 3-0 1868 1720 60.5% 33.2% 6.3% +8.0 7
1973-11-18 @ Juventus L 0-3 1720 1868 6.3% 33.2% 60.5% -8.0 4
1973-11-18 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1695 1683 49.3% 38.9% 11.8% +5.5 4
1973-11-18 @ Roma L 0-1 1683 1695 11.8% 38.9% 49.3% -5.5 1
1973-11-18 Torino D 1-1 1715 1811 38.0% 40.6% 21.3% -0.9 4
1973-11-18 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1811 1715 21.3% 40.6% 38.0% +0.9 6
1973-11-18 AC Milan D 1-1 1629 1874 20.0% 38.2% 41.8% +1.2 3
1973-11-18 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1874 1629 41.8% 38.2% 20.0% -1.2 6
1973-11-25 Juventus D 2-2 1873 1876 47.9% 39.3% 12.8% -1.6 7
1973-11-25 @ AC Milan D 2-2 1876 1873 12.8% 39.3% 47.9% +1.6 8
1973-11-25 Cesena D 1-1 1772 1710 53.7% 37.1% 9.2% -2.9 6
1973-11-25 @ Bologna D 1-1 1710 1772 9.2% 37.1% 53.7% +2.9 6
1973-11-25 Roma W 1-0 1667 1700 45.1% 40.0% 15.0% +6.5 6
1973-11-25 @ Foggia L 0-1 1700 1667 15.0% 40.0% 45.1% -6.5 4
1973-11-25 Sampdoria L 0-2 1712 1714 48.1% 39.2% 12.7% -27.0 4
1973-11-25 @ Genoa W 2-0 1714 1712 12.7% 39.2% 48.1% +27.0 6
1973-11-25 Cagliari W 2-0 1678 1748 41.0% 40.5% 18.5% +14.2 3
1973-11-25 @ Hellas Verona L 0-2 1748 1678 18.5% 40.5% 41.0% -14.2 5
1973-11-25 Inter Milan D 1-1 1840 1813 50.7% 38.4% 10.9% -2.5 7
1973-11-25 @ Lazio Roma D 1-1 1813 1840 10.9% 38.4% 50.7% +2.5 8
1973-11-25 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1773 1630 60.1% 33.5% 6.4% +2.8 9
1973-11-25 @ Napoli L 1-2 1630 1773 6.4% 33.5% 60.1% -2.8 3
1973-11-25 Fiorentina L 0-1 1812 1799 49.5% 38.8% 11.7% -14.7 6
1973-11-25 @ Torino W 1-0 1799 1812 11.7% 38.8% 49.5% +14.7 8
1973-12-02 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1734 1838 37.2% 40.7% 22.2% -11.7 5
1973-12-02 @ Cagliari W 1-0 1838 1734 22.2% 40.7% 37.2% +11.7 9
1973-12-02 Genoa D 1-1 1713 1685 50.8% 38.4% 10.8% -2.6 7
1973-12-02 @ Cesena D 1-1 1685 1713 10.8% 38.4% 50.8% +2.6 5
1973-12-02 Bologna D 1-1 1813 1769 52.2% 37.8% 10.0% -2.7 9
1973-12-02 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1769 1813 10.0% 37.8% 52.2% +2.7 7
1973-12-02 AC Milan W 2-1 1816 1871 42.7% 40.3% 17.0% +6.7 10
1973-12-02 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1871 1816 17.0% 40.3% 42.7% -6.7 7
1973-12-02 Hellas Verona W 5-1 1877 1692 63.3% 31.2% 5.5% +7.2 10
1973-12-02 @ Juventus L 1-5 1692 1877 5.5% 31.2% 63.3% -7.2 3
1973-12-02 Napoli L 0-1 1694 1775 39.7% 40.6% 19.7% -12.2 4
1973-12-02 @ Roma W 1-0 1775 1694 19.7% 40.6% 39.7% +12.2 11
1973-12-02 Foggia D 0-0 1741 1674 54.1% 37.0% 8.9% -3.3 7
1973-12-02 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1674 1741 8.9% 37.0% 54.1% +3.3 7
1973-12-02 Torino D 0-0 1628 1797 28.5% 40.1% 31.4% +0.2 4
1973-12-02 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1797 1628 31.4% 40.1% 28.5% -0.2 7
1973-12-09 Fiorentina D 1-1 1864 1811 53.0% 37.5% 9.5% -2.8 8
1973-12-09 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1811 1864 9.5% 37.5% 53.0% +2.8 10
1973-12-09 Inter Milan W 3-0 1772 1822 43.2% 40.3% 16.5% +19.1 9
1973-12-09 @ Bologna L 0-3 1822 1772 16.5% 40.3% 43.2% -19.1 10
1973-12-09 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1677 1628 52.6% 37.6% 9.7% +4.4 9
1973-12-09 @ Foggia L 1-2 1628 1677 9.7% 37.6% 52.6% -4.4 4
1973-12-09 Cagliari D 1-1 1687 1723 44.8% 40.0% 15.2% -1.8 6
1973-12-09 @ Genoa D 1-1 1723 1687 15.2% 40.0% 44.8% +1.8 6
1973-12-09 Sampdoria W 1-0 1685 1737 43.0% 40.3% 16.7% +7.0 5
1973-12-09 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1737 1685 16.7% 40.3% 43.0% -7.0 7
1973-12-09 Roma W 2-1 1849 1681 62.0% 32.1% 5.8% +2.5 11
1973-12-09 @ Lazio Roma L 1-2 1681 1849 5.8% 32.1% 62.0% -2.5 4
1973-12-09 Cesena W 1-0 1788 1711 54.9% 36.5% 8.5% +4.1 13
1973-12-09 @ Napoli L 0-1 1711 1788 8.5% 36.5% 54.9% -4.1 7
1973-12-09 Juventus L 0-1 1797 1885 39.1% 40.6% 20.3% -12.1 7
1973-12-09 @ Torino W 1-0 1885 1797 20.3% 40.6% 39.1% +12.1 12
1973-12-16 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1861 1692 62.1% 32.1% 5.8% +2.5 10
1973-12-16 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1692 1861 5.8% 32.1% 62.1% -2.5 5
1973-12-16 Torino D 2-2 1791 1785 48.8% 39.0% 12.1% -1.7 10
1973-12-16 @ Bologna D 2-2 1785 1791 12.1% 39.0% 48.8% +1.7 8
1973-12-16 Inter Milan W 1-0 1814 1803 49.2% 38.9% 11.9% +5.5 12
1973-12-16 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1803 1814 11.9% 38.9% 49.2% -5.5 10
1973-12-16 Genoa W 1-0 1682 1686 47.9% 39.3% 12.8% +5.8 11
1973-12-16 @ Foggia L 0-1 1686 1682 12.8% 39.3% 47.9% -5.8 6
1973-12-16 Cesena D 2-2 1897 1707 63.7% 30.9% 5.3% -3.0 13
1973-12-16 @ Juventus D 2-2 1707 1897 5.3% 30.9% 63.7% +3.0 8
1973-12-16 Napoli W 1-0 1852 1792 53.5% 37.2% 9.2% +4.4 13
1973-12-16 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1792 1852 9.2% 37.2% 53.5% -4.4 13
1973-12-16 Cagliari D 1-1 1730 1724 48.8% 39.0% 12.1% -2.3 8
1973-12-16 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1724 1730 12.1% 39.0% 48.8% +2.3 7
1973-12-16 Roma L 0-1 1623 1679 42.7% 40.3% 17.0% -13.0 4
1973-12-16 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1679 1623 17.0% 40.3% 42.7% +13.0 6
1973-12-23 Juventus W 2-1 1727 1894 28.8% 40.2% 31.0% +9.7 9
1973-12-23 @ Cagliari L 1-2 1894 1727 31.0% 40.2% 28.8% -9.7 13
1973-12-23 Sampdoria W 2-1 1710 1728 46.5% 39.7% 13.9% +5.8 10
1973-12-23 @ Cesena L 1-2 1728 1710 13.9% 39.7% 46.5% -5.8 8
1973-12-23 Bologna D 1-1 1680 1789 36.4% 40.7% 22.9% -0.7 7
1973-12-23 @ Genoa D 1-1 1789 1680 22.9% 40.7% 36.4% +0.7 11
1973-12-23 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1689 1856 28.9% 40.2% 30.9% -9.8 5
1973-12-23 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1856 1689 30.9% 40.2% 28.9% +9.8 15
1973-12-23 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1798 1610 63.5% 31.1% 5.4% +4.5 12
1973-12-23 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1610 1798 5.4% 31.1% 63.5% -4.5 4
1973-12-23 AC Milan L 1-2 1787 1864 40.4% 40.6% 19.1% -11.7 13
1973-12-23 @ Napoli W 2-1 1864 1787 19.1% 40.6% 40.4% +11.7 12
1973-12-23 Fiorentina D 0-0 1692 1819 34.2% 40.6% 25.2% -0.5 7
1973-12-23 @ Roma D 0-0 1819 1692 25.2% 40.6% 34.2% +0.5 13
1973-12-23 Foggia D 0-0 1787 1687 56.7% 35.5% 7.7% -3.7 9
1973-12-23 @ Torino D 0-0 1687 1787 7.7% 35.5% 56.7% +3.7 12
1973-12-30 Foggia D 0-0 1790 1691 56.7% 35.6% 7.7% -3.7 12
1973-12-30 @ Bologna D 0-0 1691 1790 7.7% 35.6% 56.7% +3.7 13
1973-12-30 Cesena D 0-0 1736 1715 50.2% 38.6% 11.2% -2.8 10
1973-12-30 @ Cagliari D 0-0 1715 1736 11.2% 38.6% 50.2% +2.8 11
1973-12-30 Roma W 2-0 1802 1691 57.7% 35.0% 7.3% +6.6 14
1973-12-30 @ Inter Milan L 0-2 1691 1802 7.3% 35.0% 57.7% -6.6 7
1973-12-30 AC Milan W 1-0 1866 1876 47.3% 39.5% 13.2% +6.0 17
1973-12-30 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1876 1866 13.2% 39.5% 47.3% -6.0 12
1973-12-30 Hellas Verona W 2-0 1776 1680 56.5% 35.7% 7.8% +7.1 15
1973-12-30 @ Napoli L 0-2 1680 1776 7.8% 35.7% 56.5% -7.1 5
1973-12-30 Juventus L 1-2 1722 1884 29.5% 40.3% 30.2% -9.4 8
1973-12-30 @ Sampdoria W 2-1 1884 1722 30.2% 40.3% 29.5% +9.4 15
1973-12-30 Genoa W 1-0 1783 1679 57.1% 35.3% 7.6% +3.6 11
1973-12-30 @ Torino L 0-1 1679 1783 7.6% 35.3% 57.1% -3.6 7
1973-12-30 Fiorentina W 2-1 1606 1820 23.2% 39.2% 37.6% +10.9 6
1973-12-30 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1820 1606 37.6% 39.2% 23.2% -10.9 13
1974-01-06 Torino W 1-0 1870 1787 55.4% 36.3% 8.3% +4.0 14
1974-01-06 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1787 1870 8.3% 36.3% 55.4% -4.0 11
1974-01-06 Lanerossi Vicenza D 2-2 1718 1617 56.9% 35.5% 7.6% -2.5 12
1974-01-06 @ Cesena D 2-2 1617 1718 7.6% 35.5% 56.9% +2.5 7
1974-01-06 Cagliari W 4-1 1809 1734 54.8% 36.6% 8.6% +9.5 15
1974-01-06 @ Fiorentina L 1-4 1734 1809 8.6% 36.6% 54.8% -9.5 10
1974-01-06 Napoli W 1-0 1695 1783 39.0% 40.6% 20.4% +8.0 15
1974-01-06 @ Foggia L 0-1 1783 1695 20.4% 40.6% 39.0% -8.0 15
1974-01-06 Lazio Roma L 1-2 1676 1872 25.1% 39.6% 35.2% -8.5 7
1974-01-06 @ Genoa W 2-1 1872 1676 35.2% 39.6% 25.1% +8.5 19
1974-01-06 Bologna D 1-1 1673 1786 35.9% 40.7% 23.5% -0.7 6
1974-01-06 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1786 1673 23.5% 40.7% 35.9% +0.7 13
1974-01-06 Inter Milan W 2-0 1894 1809 55.6% 36.2% 8.2% +7.5 17
1974-01-06 @ Juventus L 0-2 1809 1894 8.2% 36.2% 55.6% -7.5 14
1974-01-06 Sampdoria W 2-1 1685 1713 45.5% 39.9% 14.6% +6.0 9
1974-01-06 @ Roma L 1-2 1713 1685 14.6% 39.9% 45.5% -6.0 8
1974-01-13 Genoa W 2-0 1874 1667 64.9% 30.1% 5.0% +4.1 16
1974-01-13 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1667 1874 5.0% 30.1% 64.9% -4.1 7
1974-01-13 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-0 1724 1619 57.2% 35.3% 7.5% +6.8 12
1974-01-13 @ Cagliari L 0-2 1619 1724 7.5% 35.3% 57.2% -6.8 7
1974-01-13 Fiorentina D 0-0 1716 1818 37.3% 40.7% 22.1% -1.0 13
1974-01-13 @ Cesena D 0-0 1818 1716 22.1% 40.7% 37.3% +0.9 16
1974-01-13 Foggia W 3-0 1672 1703 45.3% 39.9% 14.8% +17.8 8
1974-01-13 @ Hellas Verona L 0-3 1703 1672 14.8% 39.9% 45.3% -17.8 15
1974-01-13 Roma W 2-1 1901 1691 65.2% 29.8% 5.0% +2.0 19
1974-01-13 @ Juventus L 1-2 1691 1901 5.0% 29.8% 65.2% -2.0 9
1974-01-13 Torino L 0-1 1880 1783 56.6% 35.6% 7.8% -16.4 19
1974-01-13 @ Lazio Roma W 1-0 1783 1880 7.8% 35.6% 56.6% +16.4 13
1974-01-13 Bologna W 2-0 1775 1787 47.1% 39.5% 13.4% +11.4 17
1974-01-13 @ Napoli L 0-2 1787 1775 13.4% 39.5% 47.1% -11.4 13
1974-01-13 Inter Milan D 1-1 1707 1801 38.2% 40.6% 21.1% -1.0 9
1974-01-13 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1801 1707 21.1% 40.6% 38.2% +1.0 15
1974-01-21 AC Milan W 3-2 1776 1878 37.4% 40.7% 22.0% +7.5 15
1974-01-21 @ Bologna L 2-3 1878 1776 22.0% 40.7% 37.4% -7.5 16
1974-01-21 Juventus W 2-0 1819 1903 39.5% 40.6% 19.9% +14.9 18
1974-01-21 @ Fiorentina L 0-2 1903 1819 19.9% 40.6% 39.5% -14.9 19
1974-01-21 Lazio Roma L 0-1 1685 1864 27.3% 40.0% 32.7% -9.5 15
1974-01-21 @ Foggia W 1-0 1864 1685 32.7% 40.0% 27.3% +9.5 21
1974-01-21 Hellas Verona W 1-0 1663 1690 45.7% 39.8% 14.5% +6.4 9
1974-01-21 @ Genoa L 0-1 1690 1663 14.5% 39.8% 45.7% -6.4 8
1974-01-21 Cagliari L 0-1 1802 1731 54.5% 36.8% 8.8% -15.9 15
1974-01-21 @ Inter Milan W 1-0 1731 1802 8.8% 36.8% 54.5% +15.9 14
1974-01-21 Cesena W 1-0 1689 1715 45.8% 39.8% 14.4% +6.4 11
1974-01-21 @ Roma L 0-1 1715 1689 14.4% 39.8% 45.8% -6.4 13
1974-01-21 Napoli D 1-1 1799 1786 49.5% 38.8% 11.7% -2.4 14
1974-01-21 @ Torino D 1-1 1786 1799 11.7% 38.8% 49.5% +2.4 18
1974-01-21 Sampdoria D 0-0 1613 1706 38.4% 40.6% 21.0% -1.1 8
1974-01-21 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1706 1613 21.0% 40.6% 38.4% +1.1 10
1974-01-27 Foggia W 1-0 1870 1676 64.0% 30.7% 5.3% +2.3 18
1974-01-27 @ AC Milan L 0-1 1676 1870 5.3% 30.7% 64.0% -2.3 15
1974-01-27 Roma D 1-1 1747 1695 52.8% 37.5% 9.6% -2.8 15
1974-01-27 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1695 1747 9.6% 37.5% 52.8% +2.8 12
1974-01-27 Inter Milan L 0-1 1708 1786 40.2% 40.6% 19.3% -12.3 13
1974-01-27 @ Cesena W 1-0 1786 1708 19.3% 40.6% 40.2% +12.4 17
1974-01-27 Torino L 0-1 1683 1797 35.9% 40.7% 23.4% -11.4 8
1974-01-27 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1797 1683 23.4% 40.7% 35.9% +11.4 16
1974-01-27 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1888 1611 70.0% 26.1% 3.9% -4.9 20
1974-01-27 @ Juventus D 0-0 1611 1888 3.9% 26.1% 70.0% +4.9 9
1974-01-27 Bologna W 4-0 1874 1783 56.0% 36.0% 8.0% +13.8 23
1974-01-27 @ Lazio Roma L 0-4 1783 1874 8.0% 36.0% 56.0% -13.8 15
1974-01-27 Genoa W 1-0 1788 1669 58.3% 34.6% 7.1% +3.4 20
1974-01-27 @ Napoli L 0-1 1669 1788 7.1% 34.6% 58.3% -3.4 9
1974-01-27 Fiorentina L 1-2 1707 1834 34.2% 40.6% 25.2% -10.3 10
1974-01-27 @ Sampdoria W 2-1 1834 1707 25.2% 40.6% 34.2% +10.3 20
1974-02-03 Sampdoria W 2-1 1872 1696 62.6% 31.7% 5.6% +2.4 20
1974-02-03 @ AC Milan L 1-2 1696 1872 5.6% 31.7% 62.6% -2.4 10
1974-02-03 Roma D 0-0 1769 1698 54.5% 36.8% 8.8% -3.4 16
1974-02-03 @ Bologna D 0-0 1698 1769 8.8% 36.8% 54.5% +3.4 13
1974-02-03 Juventus D 0-0 1673 1883 23.6% 39.3% 37.1% +0.8 16
1974-02-03 @ Foggia D 0-0 1883 1673 37.1% 39.3% 23.6% -0.8 21
1974-02-03 Inter Milan D 1-1 1666 1799 33.4% 40.6% 26.0% -0.4 10
1974-02-03 @ Genoa D 1-1 1799 1666 26.0% 40.6% 33.4% +0.4 18
1974-02-03 Fiorentina D 1-1 1672 1844 28.1% 40.1% 31.8% +0.2 9
1974-02-03 @ Hellas Verona D 1-1 1844 1672 31.8% 40.1% 28.1% -0.2 21
1974-02-03 Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-0 1887 1616 69.6% 26.4% 4.0% +4.3 25
1974-02-03 @ Lazio Roma L 0-3 1616 1887 4.0% 26.4% 69.6% -4.3 9
1974-02-03 Cagliari W 1-0 1792 1744 52.5% 37.7% 9.8% +4.7 22
1974-02-03 @ Napoli L 0-1 1744 1792 9.8% 37.7% 52.5% -4.7 15
1974-02-03 Cesena W 2-1 1808 1696 57.7% 35.0% 7.3% +3.3 18
1974-02-03 @ Torino L 1-2 1696 1808 7.3% 35.0% 57.7% -3.3 13
1974-02-09 Foggia W 1-0 1739 1674 54.0% 37.0% 9.0% +4.3 17
1974-02-09 @ Cagliari L 0-1 1674 1739 9.0% 37.0% 54.0% -4.3 16
1974-02-10 AC Milan W 1-0 1693 1875 26.9% 39.9% 33.2% +10.7 15
1974-02-10 @ Cesena L 0-1 1875 1693 33.2% 39.9% 26.9% -10.7 20
1974-02-10 Genoa D 0-0 1844 1666 62.8% 31.6% 5.6% -4.4 22
1974-02-10 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1666 1844 5.6% 31.6% 62.8% +4.4 11
1974-02-10 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1799 1672 58.9% 34.2% 6.9% -3.9 19
1974-02-10 @ Inter Milan D 0-0 1672 1799 6.9% 34.2% 58.9% +3.9 10
1974-02-10 Napoli W 4-1 1882 1797 55.7% 36.1% 8.2% +9.1 23
1974-02-10 @ Juventus L 1-4 1797 1882 8.2% 36.1% 55.7% -9.1 22
1974-02-10 Torino D 0-0 1701 1811 36.3% 40.7% 23.0% -0.8 14
1974-02-10 @ Roma D 0-0 1811 1701 23.0% 40.7% 36.3% +0.8 19
1974-02-10 Lazio Roma W 1-0 1694 1892 25.0% 39.6% 35.4% +11.1 12
1974-02-10 @ Sampdoria L 0-1 1892 1694 35.4% 39.6% 25.0% -11.1 25
1974-02-10 Bologna W 2-1 1612 1766 30.6% 40.4% 29.0% +9.3 11
1974-02-10 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1766 1612 29.0% 40.4% 30.6% -9.3 16
1974-02-17 Roma W 2-0 1864 1700 61.7% 32.4% 5.9% +5.1 22
1974-02-17 @ AC Milan L 0-2 1700 1864 5.9% 32.4% 61.7% -5.1 14
1974-02-17 Sampdoria W 2-1 1757 1705 52.8% 37.5% 9.6% +4.3 18
1974-02-17 @ Bologna L 1-2 1705 1757 9.6% 37.5% 52.8% -4.3 12
1974-02-17 Fiorentina W 2-1 1670 1840 28.4% 40.1% 31.4% +9.8 18
1974-02-17 @ Foggia L 1-2 1840 1670 31.4% 40.1% 28.4% -9.8 22
1974-02-17 Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1670 1621 52.6% 37.7% 9.8% -2.8 12
1974-02-17 @ Genoa D 1-1 1621 1670 9.8% 37.7% 52.6% +2.8 12
1974-02-17 Cesena W 2-1 1676 1703 45.6% 39.9% 14.5% +6.0 12
1974-02-17 @ Hellas Verona L 1-2 1703 1676 14.5% 39.9% 45.6% -6.0 15
1974-02-17 Juventus W 3-1 1880 1891 47.2% 39.5% 13.3% +9.8 27
1974-02-17 @ Lazio Roma L 1-3 1891 1880 13.3% 39.5% 47.2% -9.8 23
1974-02-17 Inter Milan W 2-1 1787 1795 47.5% 39.4% 13.1% +5.6 24
1974-02-17 @ Napoli L 1-2 1795 1787 13.1% 39.4% 47.5% -5.6 19
1974-02-17 Cagliari L 1-2 1812 1743 54.3% 36.9% 8.9% -14.9 19
1974-02-17 @ Torino W 2-1 1743 1812 8.9% 36.9% 54.3% +14.9 19
1974-03-03 AC Milan L 0-1 1758 1869 36.2% 40.7% 23.1% -11.5 19
1974-03-03 @ Cagliari W 1-0 1869 1758 23.1% 40.7% 36.2% +11.5 24
1974-03-03 Foggia W 2-0 1697 1679 49.9% 38.7% 11.4% +10.0 17
1974-03-03 @ Cesena L 0-2 1679 1697 11.4% 38.7% 49.9% -10.0 18
1974-03-03 Lazio Roma D 1-1 1830 1890 42.2% 40.4% 17.4% -1.5 23
1974-03-03 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1890 1830 17.4% 40.4% 42.2% +1.5 28
1974-03-03 Torino W 3-0 1790 1797 47.5% 39.4% 13.1% +16.2 21
1974-03-03 @ Inter Milan L 0-3 1797 1790 13.1% 39.4% 47.5% -16.2 19
1974-03-03 Bologna D 1-1 1882 1761 58.4% 34.6% 7.0% -3.5 24
1974-03-03 @ Juventus D 1-1 1761 1882 7.0% 34.6% 58.4% +3.5 19
1974-03-03 Genoa W 2-0 1695 1667 50.8% 38.4% 10.8% +9.6 16
1974-03-03 @ Roma L 0-2 1667 1695 10.8% 38.4% 50.8% -9.6 12
1974-03-03 Napoli D 0-0 1701 1793 38.5% 40.6% 20.8% -1.1 13
1974-03-03 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1793 1701 20.8% 40.6% 38.5% +1.1 25
1974-03-03 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1624 1682 42.4% 40.4% 17.2% -1.5 13
1974-03-03 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1682 1624 17.2% 40.4% 42.4% +1.5 13
1974-03-10 Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1881 1623 68.7% 27.2% 4.2% -17.4 24
1974-03-10 @ AC Milan W 2-1 1623 1881 4.2% 27.2% 68.7% +17.4 15
1974-03-10 Cagliari W 3-1 1765 1747 49.9% 38.7% 11.4% +8.7 21
1974-03-10 @ Bologna L 1-3 1747 1765 11.4% 38.7% 49.9% -8.7 19
1974-03-10 Inter Milan L 1-2 1669 1806 33.0% 40.6% 26.5% -10.1 18
1974-03-10 @ Foggia W 2-1 1806 1669 26.5% 40.6% 33.0% +10.1 23
1974-03-10 Juventus L 0-1 1658 1878 22.4% 39.0% 38.6% -8.3 12
1974-03-10 @ Genoa W 1-0 1878 1658 38.6% 39.0% 22.4% +8.3 26
1974-03-10 Roma L 0-1 1684 1705 46.2% 39.7% 14.1% -13.8 13
1974-03-10 @ Hellas Verona W 1-0 1705 1684 14.1% 39.7% 46.2% +13.8 18
1974-03-10 Cesena W 2-0 1892 1707 63.3% 31.3% 5.5% +4.6 30
1974-03-10 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1707 1892 5.5% 31.3% 63.3% -4.6 17
1974-03-10 Fiorentina W 2-1 1794 1829 44.9% 40.0% 15.1% +6.2 27
1974-03-10 @ Napoli L 1-2 1829 1794 15.1% 40.0% 44.9% -6.2 23
1974-03-10 Sampdoria D 1-1 1781 1700 55.3% 36.4% 8.4% -3.1 20
1974-03-10 @ Torino D 1-1 1700 1781 8.4% 36.4% 55.3% +3.1 14
1974-03-17 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1738 1670 54.2% 36.9% 8.9% -3.0 20
1974-03-17 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1670 1738 8.9% 36.9% 54.2% +3.0 14
1974-03-17 Bologna W 3-0 1703 1773 41.0% 40.5% 18.5% +20.6 19
1974-03-17 @ Cesena L 0-3 1773 1703 18.5% 40.5% 41.0% -20.6 21
1974-03-17 Torino W 3-1 1822 1778 52.2% 37.8% 10.0% +7.7 25
1974-03-17 @ Fiorentina L 1-3 1778 1822 10.0% 37.8% 52.2% -7.7 20
1974-03-17 Lazio Roma W 3-1 1816 1896 39.9% 40.6% 19.5% +12.7 25
1974-03-17 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1896 1816 19.5% 40.6% 39.9% -12.7 30
1974-03-17 AC Milan W 2-0 1886 1863 50.4% 38.5% 11.1% +9.8 28
1974-03-17 @ Juventus L 0-2 1863 1886 11.1% 38.5% 50.4% -9.8 24
1974-03-17 Foggia W 3-0 1719 1659 53.5% 37.2% 9.3% +12.1 20
1974-03-17 @ Roma L 0-3 1659 1719 9.3% 37.2% 53.5% -12.1 18
1974-03-17 Genoa D 1-1 1703 1649 53.0% 37.5% 9.5% -2.8 15
1974-03-17 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1649 1703 9.5% 37.5% 53.0% +2.8 13
1974-03-17 Napoli W 2-1 1640 1800 29.8% 40.3% 29.9% +9.5 17
1974-03-17 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 1-2 1800 1640 29.9% 40.3% 29.8% -9.5 27
1974-03-24 Inter Milan L 1-5 1854 1829 50.5% 38.5% 11.0% -44.5 24
1974-03-24 @ AC Milan W 5-1 1829 1854 11.0% 38.5% 50.5% +44.5 27
1974-03-24 Fiorentina D 1-1 1753 1830 40.2% 40.6% 19.2% -1.2 22
1974-03-24 @ Bologna D 1-1 1830 1753 19.2% 40.6% 40.2% +1.2 26
1974-03-24 Sampdoria D 2-2 1647 1700 43.0% 40.3% 16.8% -1.2 19
1974-03-24 @ Foggia D 2-2 1700 1647 16.8% 40.3% 43.0% +1.2 16
1974-03-24 Cesena L 1-2 1652 1723 40.9% 40.5% 18.6% -11.8 13
1974-03-24 @ Genoa W 2-1 1723 1652 18.6% 40.5% 40.9% +11.8 21
1974-03-24 Juventus D 0-0 1673 1896 22.1% 38.9% 39.0% +1.0 15
1974-03-24 @ Hellas Verona D 0-0 1896 1673 39.0% 38.9% 22.1% -1.1 29
1974-03-24 Cagliari W 2-0 1884 1735 60.5% 33.2% 6.3% +5.5 32
1974-03-24 @ Lazio Roma L 0-2 1735 1884 6.3% 33.2% 60.5% -5.5 20
1974-03-24 Roma D 1-1 1791 1731 53.5% 37.2% 9.2% -2.9 28
1974-03-24 @ Napoli D 1-1 1731 1791 9.2% 37.2% 53.5% +2.9 21
1974-03-24 Lanerossi Vicenza W 1-0 1770 1650 58.4% 34.5% 7.0% +3.3 22
1974-03-24 @ Torino L 0-1 1650 1770 7.0% 34.5% 58.4% -3.3 17
1974-03-31 Genoa L 0-1 1730 1640 56.0% 36.0% 8.1% -16.2 20
1974-03-31 @ Cagliari W 1-0 1640 1730 8.1% 36.0% 56.0% +16.2 15
1974-03-31 Napoli D 1-1 1735 1788 43.0% 40.3% 16.7% -1.5 22
1974-03-31 @ Cesena D 1-1 1788 1735 16.7% 40.3% 43.0% +1.5 29
1974-03-31 AC Milan W 3-2 1831 1809 50.3% 38.6% 11.2% +4.7 28
1974-03-31 @ Fiorentina L 2-3 1809 1831 11.2% 38.6% 50.3% -4.7 24
1974-03-31 Bologna D 1-1 1873 1751 58.5% 34.5% 7.0% -3.5 28
1974-03-31 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1751 1873 7.0% 34.5% 58.5% +3.5 23
1974-03-31 Torino D 1-1 1895 1774 58.5% 34.5% 7.0% -3.5 30
1974-03-31 @ Juventus D 1-1 1774 1895 7.0% 34.5% 58.5% +3.5 23
1974-03-31 Lazio Roma L 1-2 1734 1889 30.5% 40.4% 29.2% -9.6 21
1974-03-31 @ Roma W 2-1 1889 1734 29.2% 40.4% 30.5% +9.6 34
1974-03-31 Hellas Verona W 2-1 1701 1674 50.8% 38.4% 10.8% +4.8 18
1974-03-31 @ Sampdoria L 1-2 1674 1701 10.8% 38.4% 50.8% -4.8 15
1974-03-31 Foggia W 1-0 1646 1646 48.3% 39.2% 12.5% +5.7 19
1974-03-31 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1646 1646 12.5% 39.2% 48.3% -5.7 19
1974-04-07 Sampdoria W 2-1 1714 1706 49.0% 39.0% 12.0% +5.2 22
1974-04-07 @ Cagliari L 1-2 1706 1714 12.0% 39.0% 49.0% -5.2 18
1974-04-07 Juventus L 0-2 1734 1892 30.1% 40.3% 29.6% -19.0 22
1974-04-07 @ Cesena W 2-0 1892 1734 29.6% 40.3% 30.1% +19.0 32
1974-04-07 Foggia W 2-1 1656 1640 49.7% 38.8% 11.5% +5.0 17
1974-04-07 @ Genoa L 1-2 1640 1656 11.5% 38.8% 49.7% -5.0 19
1974-04-07 AC Milan W 2-1 1669 1804 33.1% 40.6% 26.4% +8.8 17
1974-04-07 @ Hellas Verona L 1-2 1804 1669 26.4% 40.6% 33.1% -8.8 24
1974-04-07 Fiorentina D 1-1 1870 1836 51.3% 38.2% 10.5% -2.6 29
1974-04-07 @ Inter Milan D 1-1 1836 1870 10.5% 38.2% 51.3% +2.6 29
1974-04-07 Lazio Roma D 3-3 1789 1899 36.5% 40.7% 22.9% -0.5 30
1974-04-07 @ Napoli D 3-3 1899 1789 22.9% 40.7% 36.5% +0.5 35
1974-04-07 Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1724 1652 54.6% 36.7% 8.7% -3.4 22
1974-04-07 @ Roma D 0-0 1652 1724 8.7% 36.7% 54.6% +3.4 20
1974-04-07 Bologna W 2-0 1777 1755 50.3% 38.6% 11.2% +9.9 25
1974-04-07 @ Torino L 0-2 1755 1777 11.2% 38.6% 50.3% -9.9 23
1974-04-15 Napoli D 0-0 1796 1789 48.9% 39.0% 12.1% -2.6 25
1974-04-15 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1789 1796 12.1% 39.0% 48.9% +2.6 31
1974-04-15 Genoa W 2-0 1745 1662 55.5% 36.2% 8.3% +7.5 25
1974-04-15 @ Bologna L 0-2 1662 1745 8.3% 36.2% 55.5% -7.5 17
1974-04-15 Roma W 1-0 1839 1721 58.2% 34.7% 7.1% +3.4 31
1974-04-15 @ Fiorentina L 0-1 1721 1839 7.1% 34.7% 58.2% -3.4 22
1974-04-15 Torino D 1-1 1635 1787 30.9% 40.4% 28.7% -0.1 20
1974-04-15 @ Foggia D 1-1 1787 1635 28.7% 40.4% 30.9% +0.1 26
1974-04-15 Cagliari D 1-1 1911 1719 63.8% 30.9% 5.3% -4.0 33
1974-04-15 @ Juventus D 1-1 1719 1911 5.3% 30.9% 63.8% +4.0 23
1974-04-15 Hellas Verona W 4-2 1899 1678 66.0% 29.2% 4.8% +3.0 37
1974-04-15 @ Lazio Roma L 2-4 1678 1899 4.8% 29.2% 66.0% -2.9 17
1974-04-15 Cesena D 1-1 1701 1715 46.9% 39.6% 13.5% -2.1 19
1974-04-15 @ Sampdoria D 1-1 1715 1701 13.5% 39.6% 46.9% +2.1 23
1974-04-15 Inter Milan W 1-0 1655 1867 23.4% 39.2% 37.4% +11.5 22
1974-04-15 @ Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1867 1655 37.4% 39.2% 23.4% -11.5 29
1974-04-21 Lazio Roma D 0-0 1793 1902 36.5% 40.7% 22.9% -0.8 26
1974-04-21 @ AC Milan D 0-0 1902 1793 22.9% 40.7% 36.5% +0.8 38
1974-04-21 Cagliari D 1-1 1717 1723 47.7% 39.4% 13.0% -2.2 24
1974-04-21 @ Cesena D 1-1 1723 1717 13.0% 39.4% 47.7% +2.2 24
1974-04-21 Lanerossi Vicenza L 0-1 1842 1667 62.6% 31.8% 5.7% -17.5 31
1974-04-21 @ Fiorentina W 1-0 1667 1842 5.7% 31.8% 62.6% +17.5 24
1974-04-21 Bologna D 1-1 1635 1753 35.4% 40.6% 23.9% -0.6 21
1974-04-21 @ Foggia D 1-1 1753 1635 23.9% 40.6% 35.4% +0.6 26
1974-04-21 Torino L 0-2 1654 1787 33.4% 40.6% 26.0% -20.4 17
1974-04-21 @ Genoa W 2-0 1787 1654 26.0% 40.6% 33.4% +20.4 28
1974-04-21 Napoli W 1-0 1675 1792 35.5% 40.6% 23.8% +8.8 19
1974-04-21 @ Hellas Verona L 0-1 1792 1675 23.8% 40.6% 35.5% -8.8 31
1974-04-21 Sampdoria W 2-0 1907 1699 65.0% 30.0% 5.0% +4.1 35
1974-04-21 @ Juventus L 0-2 1699 1907 5.0% 30.0% 65.0% -4.1 19
1974-04-21 Inter Milan D 3-3 1717 1856 32.8% 40.5% 26.7% -0.2 23
1974-04-21 @ Roma D 3-3 1856 1717 26.7% 40.5% 32.8% +0.2 30
1974-04-28 Hellas Verona L 1-2 1753 1684 54.3% 36.8% 8.8% -14.9 26
1974-04-28 @ Bologna W 2-1 1684 1753 8.8% 36.8% 54.3% +14.9 21
1974-04-28 Fiorentina W 1-0 1725 1824 37.6% 40.7% 21.7% +8.3 26
1974-04-28 @ Cagliari L 0-1 1824 1725 21.7% 40.7% 37.6% -8.3 31
1974-04-28 Juventus L 0-2 1856 1911 42.7% 40.3% 17.0% -24.5 30
1974-04-28 @ Inter Milan W 2-0 1911 1856 17.0% 40.3% 42.7% +24.5 37
1974-04-28 Genoa W 1-0 1903 1634 69.5% 26.5% 4.0% +1.6 40
1974-04-28 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1634 1903 4.0% 26.5% 69.5% -1.6 17
1974-04-28 Foggia D 1-1 1783 1635 60.5% 33.2% 6.3% -3.7 32
1974-04-28 @ Napoli D 1-1 1635 1783 6.3% 33.2% 60.5% +3.7 22
1974-04-28 Roma D 0-0 1695 1717 46.1% 39.8% 14.2% -2.2 20
1974-04-28 @ Sampdoria D 0-0 1717 1695 14.2% 39.8% 46.1% +2.2 24
1974-04-28 AC Milan W 1-0 1807 1792 49.7% 38.8% 11.6% +5.4 30
1974-04-28 @ Torino L 0-1 1792 1807 11.6% 38.8% 49.7% -5.4 26
1974-04-28 Cesena D 0-0 1684 1715 45.3% 39.9% 14.8% -2.1 25
1974-04-28 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 0-0 1715 1684 14.8% 39.9% 45.3% +2.1 25
1974-05-05 Napoli D 2-2 1738 1779 44.2% 40.1% 15.7% -1.3 27
1974-05-05 @ Bologna D 2-2 1779 1738 15.7% 40.1% 44.2% +1.3 33
1974-05-05 Cesena D 0-0 1816 1717 56.8% 35.5% 7.7% -3.7 32
1974-05-05 @ Fiorentina D 0-0 1717 1816 7.7% 35.5% 56.8% +3.7 26
1974-05-05 Hellas Verona D 1-1 1638 1699 42.1% 40.4% 17.5% -1.4 23
1974-05-05 @ Foggia D 1-1 1699 1638 17.5% 40.4% 42.1% +1.4 22
1974-05-05 AC Milan L 0-1 1632 1787 30.5% 40.4% 29.1% -10.2 17
1974-05-05 @ Genoa W 1-0 1787 1632 29.1% 40.4% 30.5% +10.2 28
1974-05-05 Sampdoria W 2-1 1831 1692 59.8% 33.7% 6.5% +2.9 32
1974-05-05 @ Inter Milan L 1-2 1692 1831 6.5% 33.7% 59.8% -2.9 20
1974-05-05 Juventus W 3-2 1719 1935 22.9% 39.1% 38.0% +10.4 26
1974-05-05 @ Roma L 2-3 1935 1719 38.0% 39.1% 22.9% -10.4 37
1974-05-05 Lazio Roma W 2-1 1813 1904 38.6% 40.6% 20.8% +7.6 32
1974-05-05 @ Torino L 1-2 1904 1813 20.8% 40.6% 38.6% -7.6 40
1974-05-05 Cagliari D 1-1 1682 1733 43.2% 40.3% 16.6% -1.6 26
1974-05-05 @ Lanerossi Vicenza D 1-1 1733 1682 16.6% 40.3% 43.2% +1.6 27
1974-05-12 Bologna D 1-1 1797 1737 53.5% 37.2% 9.2% -2.9 29
1974-05-12 @ AC Milan D 1-1 1737 1797 9.2% 37.2% 53.5% +2.9 28
1974-05-12 Inter Milan D 1-1 1735 1834 37.7% 40.7% 21.7% -0.9 28
1974-05-12 @ Cagliari D 1-1 1834 1735 21.7% 40.7% 37.7% +0.9 33
1974-05-12 Roma D 1-1 1720 1730 47.3% 39.5% 13.2% -2.1 27
1974-05-12 @ Cesena D 1-1 1730 1720 13.2% 39.5% 47.3% +2.1 27
1974-05-12 Genoa W 2-0 1700 1622 55.0% 36.5% 8.5% +7.7 24
1974-05-12 @ Hellas Verona L 0-2 1622 1700 8.5% 36.5% 55.0% -7.7 17
1974-05-12 Fiorentina W 3-1 1925 1812 57.8% 34.9% 7.3% +5.7 39
1974-05-12 @ Juventus L 1-3 1812 1925 7.3% 34.9% 57.8% -5.7 32
1974-05-12 Foggia W 1-0 1897 1637 68.8% 27.1% 4.1% +1.6 42
1974-05-12 @ Lazio Roma L 0-1 1637 1897 4.1% 27.1% 68.8% -1.7 23
1974-05-12 Torino D 1-1 1780 1820 44.3% 40.1% 15.6% -1.7 34
1974-05-12 @ Napoli D 1-1 1820 1780 15.6% 40.1% 44.3% +1.7 33
1974-05-12 Lanerossi Vicenza W 2-1 1690 1681 49.1% 39.0% 12.0% +5.2 22
1974-05-12 @ Sampdoria L 1-2 1681 1690 12.0% 39.0% 49.1% -5.2 26
1974-05-19 Lazio Roma D 2-2 1740 1898 30.0% 40.3% 29.7% -0.0 29
1974-05-19 @ Bologna D 2-2 1898 1740 29.7% 40.3% 30.0% +0.0 43
1974-05-19 Sampdoria D 1-1 1807 1695 57.7% 35.0% 7.3% -3.4 33
1974-05-19 @ Fiorentina D 1-1 1695 1807 7.3% 35.0% 57.7% +3.4 23
1974-05-19 AC Milan D 0-0 1635 1794 29.9% 40.3% 29.8% -0.0 24
1974-05-19 @ Foggia D 0-0 1794 1635 29.8% 40.3% 29.9% +0.0 30
1974-05-19 Napoli L 1-2 1614 1779 29.2% 40.2% 30.6% -9.3 17
1974-05-19 @ Genoa W 2-1 1779 1614 30.6% 40.2% 29.2% +9.3 36
1974-05-19 Cesena W 3-1 1835 1718 58.1% 34.7% 7.1% +5.6 35
1974-05-19 @ Inter Milan L 1-3 1718 1835 7.1% 34.7% 58.1% -5.6 27
1974-05-19 Cagliari W 2-0 1732 1734 48.1% 39.3% 12.7% +10.9 29
1974-05-19 @ Roma L 0-2 1734 1732 12.7% 39.3% 48.1% -10.9 28
1974-05-19 Hellas Verona D 0-0 1822 1708 57.9% 34.8% 7.2% -3.8 34
1974-05-19 @ Torino D 0-0 1708 1822 7.2% 34.8% 57.9% +3.8 25
1974-05-19 Juventus L 0-3 1676 1931 19.0% 37.9% 43.1% -20.1 26
1974-05-19 @ Lanerossi Vicenza W 3-0 1931 1676 43.1% 37.9% 19.0% +20.1 41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1974-03-10 4.16% Lanerossi Vicenza 1623 2 @ AC Milan 1881 1
2 1974-04-21 5.66% Lanerossi Vicenza 1667 1 @ Fiorentina 1842 0
3 1973-10-28 6.15% Foggia 1662 1 @ Fiorentina 1816 0
4 1974-01-13 7.77% Torino 1783 1 @ Lazio Roma 1880 0
5 1974-03-31 8.06% Genoa 1640 1 @ Cagliari 1730 0
6 1974-01-21 8.75% Cagliari 1731 1 @ Inter Milan 1802 0
7 1974-04-28 8.83% Hellas Verona 1684 2 @ Bologna 1753 1
8 1974-02-17 8.87% Cagliari 1743 2 @ Torino 1812 1
9 1974-03-24 11.01% Inter Milan 1829 5 @ AC Milan 1854 1
10 1973-11-25 11.68% Fiorentina 1799 1 @ Torino 1812 0
11 1973-11-25 12.65% Sampdoria 1714 2 @ Genoa 1712 0
12 1974-03-10 14.07% Roma 1705 1 @ Hellas Verona 1684 0
13 1974-04-28 16.95% Juventus 1911 2 @ Inter Milan 1856 0
14 1973-12-16 16.99% Roma 1679 1 @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1623 0
15 1973-10-14 18.52% Inter Milan 1783 3 @ Hellas Verona 1712 1
16 1974-03-24 18.56% Cesena 1723 2 @ Genoa 1652 1
17 1973-12-23 19.10% AC Milan 1864 2 @ Napoli 1787 1
18 1973-10-14 19.16% Fiorentina 1803 1 @ Genoa 1726 0
19 1974-01-27 19.28% Inter Milan 1786 1 @ Cesena 1708 0
20 1973-12-02 19.68% Napoli 1775 1 @ Roma 1694 0
21 1973-12-09 20.30% Juventus 1885 1 @ Torino 1797 0
22 1973-12-02 22.16% Lazio Roma 1838 1 @ Cagliari 1734 0
23 1974-05-05 22.91% @ Roma 1719 3 Juventus 1935 2
24 1974-03-03 23.09% AC Milan 1869 1 @ Cagliari 1758 0
25 1973-12-30 23.16% @ Lanerossi Vicenza 1606 2 Fiorentina 1820 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1974-03-24 44.50 Inter Milan 5 1829 11.01% @ AC Milan 1 1854 50.52% 38.48%
2 1973-10-07 28.04 Lazio Roma 3 1820 28.85% @ Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1668 30.77% 40.38%
3 1973-11-25 27.00 Sampdoria 2 1714 12.65% @ Genoa 0 1712 48.09% 39.25%
4 1974-04-28 24.47 Juventus 2 1911 16.95% @ Inter Milan 0 1856 42.73% 40.32%
5 1974-03-17 20.60 @ Cesena 3 1703 41.03% Bologna 0 1773 18.47% 40.50%
6 1973-10-14 20.50 Inter Milan 3 1783 18.52% @ Hellas Verona 1 1712 40.98% 40.50%
7 1974-04-21 20.39 Torino 2 1787 26.01% @ Genoa 0 1654 33.42% 40.57%
8 1974-05-19 20.13 Juventus 3 1931 43.09% @ Lanerossi Vicenza 0 1676 19.02% 37.89%
9 1973-12-09 19.14 @ Bologna 3 1772 43.22% Inter Milan 0 1822 16.52% 40.26%
10 1974-04-07 19.02 Juventus 2 1892 29.62% @ Cesena 0 1734 30.06% 40.32%
11 1974-01-13 17.76 @ Hellas Verona 3 1672 45.26% Foggia 0 1703 14.82% 39.92%
12 1974-04-21 17.54 Lanerossi Vicenza 1 1667 5.66% @ Fiorentina 0 1842 62.57% 31.77%
13 1974-03-10 17.37 Lanerossi Vicenza 2 1623 4.16% @ AC Milan 1 1881 68.67% 27.17%
14 1973-10-14 17.26 @ Napoli 2 1746 33.96% Juventus 0 1875 25.44% 40.60%
15 1973-10-28 17.25 Foggia 1 1662 6.15% @ Fiorentina 0 1816 60.97% 32.89%
16 1974-01-13 16.36 Torino 1 1783 7.77% @ Lazio Roma 0 1880 56.60% 35.63%
17 1974-03-31 16.22 Genoa 1 1640 8.06% @ Cagliari 0 1730 55.95% 35.99%
18 1974-03-03 16.18 @ Inter Milan 3 1790 47.55% Torino 0 1797 13.05% 39.40%
19 1974-01-21 15.89 Cagliari 1 1731 8.75% @ Inter Milan 0 1802 54.50% 36.75%
20 1974-04-28 14.94 Hellas Verona 2 1684 8.83% @ Bologna 1 1753 54.34% 36.83%
21 1974-02-17 14.93 Cagliari 2 1743 8.87% @ Torino 1 1812 54.26% 36.87%
22 1974-01-21 14.87 @ Fiorentina 2 1819 39.50% Juventus 0 1903 19.90% 40.60%
23 1973-11-25 14.67 Fiorentina 1 1799 11.68% @ Torino 0 1812 49.48% 38.83%
24 1973-11-25 14.17 @ Hellas Verona 2 1678 41.04% Cagliari 0 1748 18.46% 40.50%
25 1974-03-10 13.84 Roma 1 1705 14.07% @ Hellas Verona 0 1684 46.20% 39.73%